Subsurface Thermal Energy Storage for Improved Air Conditioning Efficiency

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

current cost liability is the potential for several significant structural changes at DoD facilities around the world. These challenges include... climate , with an average high temperature of 90 degrees in July, and an average low temperature of 39 in January. The annual average temperature is 65.6...in new systems. The first three steps are recommended for every geothermal system installed in cooling dominated areas ( climatically hot areas such

Paleolimnology of lacustrine rocks in Stewart Valley, Nevada: Evidence for Middle Miocene climatic cooling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Starrat, S.W.

1993-04-01

Three diatom floras from Middle Miocene (Barstovian and Clarendonian) lacustrine rocks in Stewart Valley, Nevada have been distinguished. The change in floral composition between the two youngest floras may be indicative of climatic cooling over a period of about 3 m.y. (15--12 Ma). Age control is provided by radiometric (K-Ar) and vertebrate fossil data. The oldest flora is dominated by members of the genus Fragilaria'. Although most common in modern-day marshy areas, the laminated nature of the Stewart Valley strata in which this flora is found suggest that large numbers of these diatoms were washed into deeper waters, where theymore » continued to thrive as a significant part of the planktonic biomass. Stratigraphically equivalent rocks elsewhere in Stewart Valley contain abundant clusters of unopened prasinophyte algae. These unopened algal structures are thought to indicate extreme environmental stress. Environmental stress would also explain the presence of several beds of well-preserved fish fossils in stratigraphically adjacent beds. The other tow floras are preserved in a 45-m-thick section of diatomaceous shale, located about 95 m above the flora discussed above. The flora in the lower part of this section is dominated by the genus Aulacoseira (primarily A. granulata). Modern-day members of this genus are common in areas with abundant summer precipitation and mild winters. The flora in the upper part of the section is dominated by Actinocyclus cedarensis Bradbury and Krebs. If A. cedarensis can be considered an ecological analog of the late Pleistocene (glacial) representatives of the genus Stephanodiscus, then its dominant position in the flora may be indicative of a cooling event. This climate trend is also evident in paleobotanical (leaf and pollen) data from Stewart Valley, as well as many other localities across the Great Basin.« less

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population.

PubMed

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-08-06

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km(2) yr(-1) since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km(2) delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains ("archeological silence"). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-08-01

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr-1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

PubMed Central

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-01-01

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr−1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. PMID:26246410

Non-radiative processes dominate land surface signals in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bright, R. M.; Davin, E.; O'Halloran, T. L.; Pongratz, J.; Zhao, K.; Cescatti, A.

2016-12-01

Perturbations to the surface energy budget linked to land cover/land management changes (LCMC) are rarely included in land-climate assessments although they have long been recognized as important drivers of local climate change. At local scales, climate forcings from LCMC depend strongly on changes to surface energy redistribution by various non-radiative mechanisms, dampening or even outweighing the local radiative effect of an albedo change. The extent to which these mechanisms are locally relevant for different types of LCMC across the world remains largely unquantified. Here, we combine extensive records of remote sensing and in-situ observations to quantify local forcings for nine common real-world LCMC perturbations, identifying their underlying physical mechanisms and analyzing their spatial patterns at the global scale. We find that throughout the densely populated regions, non-radiative forcings dominate the local surface temperature response in 8 of 9 LCMC scenarios. Further, the observed local response to re-/afforestation is an annual cooling in all regions south of the upper conterminous United States, Western Europe, and Indo-China. Given that the global response to re-/afforestation in these regions is likely a cooling, projects here can be seen as attractive mitigation measures. Our results - gridded to a 1° x 1° resolution - can be directly used to evaluate climate models or compute indicators providing a more comprehensive picture of the trade-offs between local and global climate forcings linked to land sector projects and policies.

Critical review of the impacts of grazing intensity on soil organic carbon storage and other soil quality indicators in extensively managed grasslands.

PubMed

Abdalla, M; Hastings, A; Chadwick, D R; Jones, D L; Evans, C D; Jones, M B; Rees, R M; Smith, P

2018-02-01

Livestock grazing intensity (GI) is thought to have a major impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and soil quality indicators in grassland agroecosystems. To critically investigate this, we conducted a global review and meta-analysis of 83 studies of extensive grazing, covering 164 sites across different countries and climatic zones. Unlike previous published reviews we normalized the SOC and total nitrogen (TN) data to a 30 cm depth to be compatible with IPCC guidelines. We also calculated a normalized GI and divided the data into four main groups depending on the regional climate (dry warm, DW; dry cool, DC; moist warm, MW; moist cool, MC). Our results show that taken across all climatic zones and GIs, grazing (below the carrying capacity of the systems) results in a decrease in SOC storage, although its impact on SOC is climate-dependent. When assessed for different regional climates, all GI levels increased SOC stocks under the MW climate (+7.6%) whilst there were reductions under the MC climate (-19%). Under the DW and DC climates, only the low (+5.8%) and low to medium (+16.1%) grazing intensities, respectively, were associated with increased SOC stocks. High GI significantly increased SOC for C4-dominated grassland compared to C3-dominated grassland and C3-C4 mixed grasslands. It was also associated with significant increases in TN and bulk density but had no effect on soil pH. To protect grassland soils from degradation, we recommend that GI and management practices should be optimized according to climate region and grassland type (C3, C4 or C3-C4 mixed).

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Sediment delivery to the Gulf of Alaska: source mechanisms along a glaciated transform margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dobson, M.R.; O'Leary, D.; Veart, M.

1998-01-01

Sediment delivery to the Gulf of Alaska occurs via four areally extensive deep-water fans, sourced from grounded tidewater glaciers. During periods of climatic cooling, glaciers cross a narrow shelf and discharge sediment down the continental slope. Because the coastal terrain is dominated by fjords and a narrow, high-relief Pacific watershed, deposition is dominated by channellized point-source fan accumulations, the volumes of which are primarily a function of climate. The sediment distribution is modified by a long-term tectonic translation of the Pacific plate to the north along the transform margin. As a result, the deep-water fans are gradually moved away from the climatically controlled point sources. Sets of abandoned channels record the effect of translation during the Plio-Pleistocene.

Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Känel, Lukas; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Gruber, Nicolas

2017-08-01

A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998-2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30-member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal-scale variability.

Evaporative cooling of speleothem drip water

PubMed Central

Cuthbert, M. O.; Rau, G. C.; Andersen, M. S.; Roshan, H.; Rutlidge, H.; Marjo, C. E.; Markowska, M.; Jex, C. N.; Graham, P. W.; Mariethoz, G.; Acworth, R. I.; Baker, A.

2014-01-01

This study describes the first use of concurrent high-precision temperature and drip rate monitoring to explore what controls the temperature of speleothem forming drip water. Two contrasting sites, one with fast transient and one with slow constant dripping, in a temperate semi-arid location (Wellington, NSW, Australia), exhibit drip water temperatures which deviate significantly from the cave air temperature. We confirm the hypothesis that evaporative cooling is the dominant, but so far unattributed, control causing significant disequilibrium between drip water and host rock/air temperatures. The amount of cooling is dependent on the drip rate, relative humidity and ventilation. Our results have implications for the interpretation of temperature-sensitive, speleothem climate proxies such as δ18O, cave microecology and the use of heat as a tracer in karst. Understanding the processes controlling the temperature of speleothem-forming cave drip waters is vital for assessing the reliability of such deposits as archives of climate change. PMID:24895139

Aerosol reductions could dominate regional climate responses in low GHG emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S.; Forster, P.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S. M.; Schleussner, C. F.

2017-12-01

Limiting global warming to current political goals requires strong, rapid mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline sharply, due to co-emission with greenhouse gases, and future measures to improve air quality. As the net climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained, predicting the impact of strong aerosol emission reductions remains challenging. Here we investigate the isolated and compound climate impacts from removing present day anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and SO2, and moderate, near term GHG dominated global warming, using four coupled climate models. As the dominating effect of aerosol emission reduction is a removal of cooling from sulphur, the resulting climate impacts amplify those of GHG induced warming. BC emissions contribute little to reducing surface warming, but have stronger regional impacts. For the major aerosol emission regions, extreme weather indices are more sensitive to aerosol removal than to GHG increases, per degree of surface warming. East Asia in particular stands out, mainly due to the high present regional aerosol emissions. We show how present climate models indicate that future regional climate change will depend strongly on changes in loading and distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, in addition to surface temperature change.

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; Fu, Q.

2016-01-01

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO4-induced PET changes.

Eocene cooling linked to early flow across the Tasmanian Gateway.

PubMed

Bijl, Peter K; Bendle, James A P; Bohaty, Steven M; Pross, Jörg; Schouten, Stefan; Tauxe, Lisa; Stickley, Catherine E; McKay, Robert M; Röhl, Ursula; Olney, Matthew; Sluijs, Appy; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk

2013-06-11

The warmest global temperatures of the past 85 million years occurred during a prolonged greenhouse episode known as the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (52-50 Ma). The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum terminated with a long-term cooling trend that culminated in continental-scale glaciation of Antarctica from 34 Ma onward. Whereas early studies attributed the Eocene transition from greenhouse to icehouse climates to the tectonic opening of Southern Ocean gateways, more recent investigations invoked a dominant role of declining atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (e.g., CO2). However, the scarcity of field data has prevented empirical evaluation of these hypotheses. We present marine microfossil and organic geochemical records spanning the early-to-middle Eocene transition from the Wilkes Land Margin, East Antarctica. Dinoflagellate biogeography and sea surface temperature paleothermometry reveal that the earliest throughflow of a westbound Antarctic Counter Current began ~49-50 Ma through a southern opening of the Tasmanian Gateway. This early opening occurs in conjunction with the simultaneous onset of regional surface water and continental cooling (2-4 °C), evidenced by biomarker- and pollen-based paleothermometry. We interpret that the westbound flowing current flow across the Tasmanian Gateway resulted in cooling of Antarctic surface waters and coasts, which was conveyed to global intermediate waters through invigorated deep convection in southern high latitudes. Although atmospheric CO2 forcing alone would provide a more uniform middle Eocene cooling, the opening of the Tasmanian Gateway better explains Southern Ocean surface water and global deep ocean cooling in the apparent absence of (sub-) equatorial cooling.

Eocene cooling linked to early flow across the Tasmanian Gateway

PubMed Central

Bijl, Peter K.; Bendle, James A. P.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Pross, Jörg; Schouten, Stefan; Tauxe, Lisa; Stickley, Catherine E.; McKay, Robert M.; Röhl, Ursula; Olney, Matthew; Sluijs, Appy; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Klaus, Adam; Fehr, Annick; Williams, Trevor; Carr, Stephanie A.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Gonzàlez, Jhon J.; Hayden, Travis G.; Iwai, Masao; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Katsuki, Kota; Kong, Gee Soo; Nakai, Mutsumi; Passchier, Sandra; Pekar, Stephen F.; Riesselman, Christina; Sakai, Toyosaburo; Shrivastava, Prakash K.; Sugisaki, Saiko; Tuo, Shouting; van de Flierdt, Tina; Welsh, Kevin; Yamane, Masako

2013-01-01

The warmest global temperatures of the past 85 million years occurred during a prolonged greenhouse episode known as the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (52–50 Ma). The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum terminated with a long-term cooling trend that culminated in continental-scale glaciation of Antarctica from 34 Ma onward. Whereas early studies attributed the Eocene transition from greenhouse to icehouse climates to the tectonic opening of Southern Ocean gateways, more recent investigations invoked a dominant role of declining atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (e.g., CO2). However, the scarcity of field data has prevented empirical evaluation of these hypotheses. We present marine microfossil and organic geochemical records spanning the early-to-middle Eocene transition from the Wilkes Land Margin, East Antarctica. Dinoflagellate biogeography and sea surface temperature paleothermometry reveal that the earliest throughflow of a westbound Antarctic Counter Current began ∼49–50 Ma through a southern opening of the Tasmanian Gateway. This early opening occurs in conjunction with the simultaneous onset of regional surface water and continental cooling (2–4 °C), evidenced by biomarker- and pollen-based paleothermometry. We interpret that the westbound flowing current flow across the Tasmanian Gateway resulted in cooling of Antarctic surface waters and coasts, which was conveyed to global intermediate waters through invigorated deep convection in southern high latitudes. Although atmospheric CO2 forcing alone would provide a more uniform middle Eocene cooling, the opening of the Tasmanian Gateway better explains Southern Ocean surface water and global deep ocean cooling in the apparent absence of (sub-) equatorial cooling. PMID:23720311

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

DOE PAGES

Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson; ...

2018-01-06

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore » decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.« less

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore » decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.« less

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Native and exotic plant cover vary inversely along a climate gradient 11 years following stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest, Oregon, USA.

PubMed

Dodson, Erich K; Root, Heather T

2015-02-01

Community re-assembly following future disturbances will often occur under warmer and more moisture-limited conditions than when current communities assembled. Because the establishment stage is regularly the most sensitive to climate and competition, the trajectory of recovery from disturbance in a changing environment is uncertain, but has important consequences for future ecosystem functioning. To better understand how ongoing warming and rising moisture limitation may affect recovery, we studied native and exotic plant composition 11 years following complete stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest spanning a large gradient in climatic moisture deficit (CMD) from warm and dry low elevation sites to relatively cool and moist higher elevations sites. We then projected future precipitation, temperature and CMD at our study locations for four scenarios selected to encompass a broad range of possible future conditions for the region. Native perennials dominated relatively cool and moist sites 11 years after wildfire, but were very sparse at the warmest and driest (high CMD) sites, particularly when combined with high topographic sun exposure. In contrast, exotic species (primarily annual grasses) were dominant or co-dominant at the warmest and driest sites, especially with high topographic sun exposure. All future scenarios projected increasing temperature and CMD in coming decades (e.g., from 4.5% to 29.5% higher CMD by the 2080's compared to the 1971-2000 average), even in scenarios where growing season (May-September) precipitation increased. These results suggest increasing temperatures and moisture limitation could facilitate longer term (over a decade) transitions toward exotic-dominated communities after severe wildfire when a suitable exotic seed source is present. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DEVELOPMENT OF A SOFTWARE DESIGN TOOL FOR HYBRID SOLAR-GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS IN HEATING- AND COOLING-DOMINATED BUILDINGS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yavuzturk, C. C.; Chiasson, A. D.; Filburn, T. P.

This project provides an easy-to-use, menu-driven, software tool for designing hybrid solar-geothermal heat pump systems (GHP) for both heating- and cooling-dominated buildings. No such design tool currently exists. In heating-dominated buildings, the design approach takes advantage of glazed solar collectors to effectively balance the annual thermal loads on the ground with renewable solar energy. In cooling-dominated climates, the design approach takes advantage of relatively low-cost, unglazed solar collectors as the heat rejecting component. The primary benefit of hybrid GHPs is the reduced initial cost of the ground heat exchanger (GHX). Furthermore, solar thermal collectors can be used to balance themore » ground loads over the annual cycle, thus making the GHX fully sustainable; in heating-dominated buildings, the hybrid energy source (i.e., solar) is renewable, in contrast to a typical fossil fuel boiler or electric resistance as the hybrid component; in cooling-dominated buildings, use of unglazed solar collectors as a heat rejecter allows for passive heat rejection, in contrast to a cooling tower that consumes a significant amount of energy to operate, and hybrid GHPs can expand the market by allowing reduced GHX footprint in both heating- and cooling-dominated climates. The design tool allows for the straight-forward design of innovative GHP systems that currently pose a significant design challenge. The project lays the foundations for proper and reliable design of hybrid GHP systems, overcoming a series of difficult and cumbersome steps without the use of a system simulation approach, and without an automated optimization scheme. As new technologies and design concepts emerge, sophisticated design tools and methodologies must accompany them and be made usable for practitioners. Lack of reliable design tools results in reluctance of practitioners to implement more complex systems. A menu-driven software tool for the design of hybrid solar GHP systems is provided that is based on mathematically robust, validated models. An automated optimization tool is used to balance ground loads and incorporated into the simulation engine. With knowledge of the building loads, thermal properties of the ground, the borehole heat exchanger configuration, the heat pump peak hourly and seasonal COP for heating and cooling, the critical heat pump design entering fluid temperature, and the thermal performance of a solar collector, the total GHX length can be calculated along with the area of a supplemental solar collector array and the corresponding reduced GHX length. An economic analysis module allows for the calculation of the lowest capital cost combination of solar collector area and GHX length. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project was funded by the United States Department of Energy DOE-DE-FOA-0000116, Recovery Act Geothermal Technologies Program: Ground Source Heat Pumps. The lead contractor, The University of Hartford, was supported by The University of Dayton, and the Oak Ridge National Laboratories. All funding and support for this project as well as contributions of graduate and undergraduate students from the contributing institutions are gratefully acknowledged.« less

Climate change exacerbates interspecific interactions in sympatric coastal fishes.

PubMed

Milazzo, Marco; Mirto, Simone; Domenici, Paolo; Gristina, Michele

2013-03-01

Biological responses to warming are presently based on the assumption that species will remain within their bioclimatic envelope as environmental conditions change. As a result, changes in the relative abundance of several marine species have been documented over the last decades. This suggests that warming may drive novel interspecific interactions to occur (i.e. invasive vs. native species) or may intensify the strength of pre-existing ones (i.e. warm vs. cold adapted). For mobile species, habitat relocation is a viable solution to track tolerable conditions and reduce competitive costs, resulting in 'winner' species dominating the best quality habitat at the expense of 'loser' species. Here, we focus on the importance of warming in exacerbating interspecific interactions between two sympatric fishes. We assessed the relocation response of the cool-water fish Coris julis (a potential 'loser' species in warming scenarios) at increasing relative dominance of the warm-water fish Thalassoma pavo (a 'winner' species). These wrasses are widespread in the Mediterranean nearshore waters. C. julis tolerates cooler waters and is found throughout the basin. T. pavo is common along southern coasts, although the species range is expanding northwards as the Mediterranean warms. We surveyed habitat patterns along a thermo-latitudinal gradient in the Western Mediterranean Sea and manipulated seawater temperature under two scenarios (present day vs. projected) in outdoor arenas. Our results show that the cool-water species relocates to a less-preferred seagrass habitat and undergoes lower behavioural performance in warmer environments, provided the relative dominance of its warm-water antagonist is high. The results suggest that expected warming will act synergistically with increased relative dominance of a warm-water species to cause a cool-water fish to relocate in a less-preferred habitat within the same thermal environment. Our study highlights the complexity of climate change effects and has broad implications for predictive models of responses to warming. To achieve more accurate predictions, further consideration is needed of the pervasive importance of species interactions. We believe these fundamental issues to be addressed to understand the biotic consequences of climate change. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Climate change induced by Southern Hemisphere desertification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong

2017-12-01

Some 10-20% of global dry-lands are already degraded, and the ongoing desertification threatens the world's poorest populations. Studies on desertification effects are essential for humans to adapt to the environmental challenges posed by desertification. Given the importance of the much larger southern ocean to the global climate and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate changes in phase with those in the north, the biogeophysical effects of the SH desertification on climate are assessed using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, MPM-2. This analysis focuses on differences in climate among the averages of simulations with desert expansion in different latitude bands by year 2000. The localized desertification causes significant global changes in temperature and precipitation as well as surface albedo. On the global scale, cooling dominates the SH desertification effects. However, the biogeophysical effects are most significant in regions with desertification, and the cooling is also prominent in northern mid-latitudes. Desert expansion in 15°-30°S reveals statistically most significant cooling and increased precipitation over the forcing regions during spring. The global and regional scale responses from desertification imply the climate teleconnection and address the importance of the effects from the SH which are contingent on the location of the forcing. Our study indicates that biogeophysical mechanisms of land cover changes in the SH need to be accounted for in the assessment of land management options especially for latitude band over 15°-30°S.

The influence of extreme seasonality on lake temperatures during Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, F.; Stranne, C.; Wohlfarth, B.

2016-12-01

The Younger Dryas cold reversal ( 12.9 to 11.7 kyr BP) is the last abrupt climate change event interrupting the warming of the late deglaciation right before the onset of the Holocene. The spatial pattern of the cooling event seen in proxy data is largely consistent with those of climate simulations and suggests that the Younger Dryas is linked to a significant slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, despite the strong ocean cooling of up to 6 K along the European coasts and a significant southward extension of sea-ice during the Younger Dryas, different climate simulations do not reproduce summer cooling over Europe as seen in July lake temperature reconstructions based on chironomids. Aquatic plants used as climate indicator species do in contrast not show such a strong cooling and are more in line with climate simulations. To investigate this discrepancy, we use two numerical lake models driven by high resolution climate model output for the Younger Dryas and the preceding warm period of the late Alleröd ( 13 kyr BP). First, we investigate to which extent simulated lake temperatures in summer still reflect atmospheric summer temperatures despite a strong increase in seasonality during Younger Dryas. Because the (paleo-)lake depths are usually not well known, we use the lake models to test their sensitivity to changes in seasonality as a function of depth. Second, we artificially change the temperatures used as forcing for the lake models to investigate how cold air temperatures would need to be to match the up to 5 K July cooling suggested by chironomids. The results show that more care needs to be taken about the location and (paleo-)lake depths when comparing lake temperatures with simulated air temperatures. The simulated atmospheric circulation patterns during summer appears to be rather insensitive to the Younger Dryas cooling owing to the dominance of high atmospheric pressure over the Euro-Atlantic region. This would support a recent study linking extremely cold North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies to severe heat waves in Europe since the 1980s (Duchez et al. 2016, ERL, Vol. 11, No. 7).

Importance of Soil Temperature for the Growth of Temperate Crops under a Tropical Climate and Functional Role of Soil Microbial Diversity.

PubMed

Sabri, Nurul Syazwani Ahmad; Zakaria, Zuriati; Mohamad, Shaza Eva; Jaafar, A Bakar; Hara, Hirofumi

2018-04-28

A soil cooling system that prepares soil for temperate soil temperatures for the growth of temperate crops under a tropical climate is described herein. Temperate agriculture has been threatened by the negative impact of temperature increases caused by climate change. Soil temperature closely correlates with the growth of temperate crops, and affects plant processes and soil microbial diversity. The present study focuses on the effects of soil temperatures on lettuce growth and soil microbial diversity that maintains the growth of lettuce at low soil temperatures. A model temperate crop, loose leaf lettuce, was grown on eutrophic soil under soil cooling and a number of parameters, such as fresh weight, height, the number of leaves, and root length, were evaluated upon harvest. Under soil cooling, significant differences were observed in the average fresh weight (P<0.05) and positive development of the roots, shoots, and leaves of lettuce. Janthinobacterium (8.142%), Rhodoplanes (1.991%), Arthrospira (1.138%), Flavobacterium (0.857%), Sphingomonas (0.790%), Mycoplana (0.726%), and Pseudomonas (0.688%) were the dominant bacterial genera present in cooled soil. Key soil fungal communities, including Pseudaleuria (18.307%), Phoma (9.968%), Eocronartium (3.527%), Trichosporon (1.791%), and Pyrenochaeta (0.171%), were also recovered from cooled soil. The present results demonstrate that the growth of temperate crops is dependent on soil temperature, which subsequently affects the abundance and diversity of soil microbial communities that maintain the growth of temperate crops at low soil temperatures.

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. In this work, we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate ofmore » 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO 4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO 4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO 4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO 4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO 4-induced PET changes.« less

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

DOE PAGES

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; ...

2016-01-27

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. In this work, we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate ofmore » 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO 4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO 4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO 4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO 4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO 4-induced PET changes.« less

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols: LIN: SIMULATED RESPONSES ARIDITY

DOE PAGES

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; ...

2016-01-27

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9%/°C of globalmore » mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO4-induced PET changes.« less

Southern high-latitude terrestrial climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene derived from a marine pollen record (ODP Site 1172, East Tasman Plateau)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, L.; Pross, J.; Bijl, P. K.; O'Hara, R. B.; Raine, J. I.; Sluijs, A.; Brinkhuis, H.

2014-01-01

Reconstructing the early Paleogene climate dynamics of terrestrial settings in the high southern latitudes is important to assess the role of high-latitude physical and biogeochemical processes in the global climate system. However, whereas a number of high-quality Paleogene climate records has become available for the marine realm of the high southern latitudes over the recent past, the long-term evolution of coeval terrestrial climates and ecosystems is yet poorly known. We here explore the climate and vegetation dynamics on Tasmania from the middle Paleocene to the early Eocene (60.7-54.2 Ma) based on a sporomorph record from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1172 on the East Tasman Plateau. Our results show that three distinctly different vegetation types thrived on Tasmania under a high-precipitation regime during the middle Paleocene to early Eocene, with each type representing different temperature conditions: (i) warm-temperate forests dominated by gymnosperms that were dominant during the middle and late Paleocene; (ii) cool-temperate forests dominated by southern beech (Nothofagus) and araucarians across the middle/late Paleocene transition interval (~59.5 to ~59.0 Ma); and (iii) paratropical forests rich in ferns that were established during and in the wake of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The transient establishment of cool-temperate forests lacking any frost-sensitive elements (i.e., palms and cycads) across the middle/late Paleocene transition interval indicates markedly cooler conditions, with the occurrence of frosts in winter, on Tasmania during that time. The integration of our sporomorph data with previously published TEX86-based sea-surface temperatures from ODP Site 1172 documents that the vegetation dynamics on Tasmania were closely linked with the temperature evolution in the Tasman sector of the Southwest Pacific region. Moreover, the comparison of our season-specific climate estimates for the sporomorph assemblages from ODP Site 1172 with the TEX86L- and TEX86H-based temperature data suggests a warm-season bias of both calibrations for the early Paleogene of the high southern latitudes.

Southern high-latitude terrestrial climate change during the Palaeocene-Eocene derived from a marine pollen record (ODP Site 1172, East Tasman Plateau)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, L.; Pross, J.; Bijl, P. K.; O'Hara, R. B.; Raine, J. I.; Sluijs, A.; Brinkhuis, H.

2014-07-01

Reconstructing the early Palaeogene climate dynamics of terrestrial settings in the high southern latitudes is important to assess the role of high-latitude physical and biogeochemical processes in the global climate system. However, whereas a number of high-quality Palaeogene climate records has become available for the marine realm of the high southern latitudes over the recent past, the long-term evolution of coeval terrestrial climates and ecosystems is yet poorly known. We here explore the climate and vegetation dynamics on Tasmania from the middle Palaeocene to the early Eocene (60.7-54.2 Ma) based on a sporomorph record from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1172 on the East Tasman Plateau. Our results show that three distinctly different vegetation types thrived on Tasmania under a high-precipitation regime during the middle Palaeocene to early Eocene, with each type representing different temperature conditions: (i) warm-temperate forests dominated by gymnosperms that were dominant during the middle and late Palaeocene (excluding the middle/late Palaeocene transition); (ii) cool-temperate forests dominated by southern beech (Nothofagus) and araucarians that transiently prevailed across the middle/late Palaeocene transition interval (~ 59.5 to ~ 59.0 Ma); and (iii) paratropical forests rich in ferns that were established during and in the wake of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The transient establishment of cool-temperate forests lacking any frost-sensitive elements (i.e. palms and cycads) across the middle/late Palaeocene transition interval indicates markedly cooler conditions, with the occurrence of frosts in winter, on Tasmania during that time. The integration of our sporomorph data with previously published TEX86-based sea-surface temperatures from ODP Site 1172 documents that the vegetation dynamics on Tasmania were closely linked with the temperature evolution in the Tasman sector of the Southwest Pacific region. Moreover, the comparison of our season-specific climate estimates for the sporomorph assemblages from ODP Site 1172 with the TEX86L- and TEX86H-based temperature data suggests a warm bias of both calibrations for the early Palaeogene of the high southern latitudes.

Global temperature responses to current emissions from the transport sectors

PubMed Central

Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan

2008-01-01

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that cause both warming and cooling of climate, and the effects operate on very different timescales. We calculate climate responses in terms of global mean temperature and find large differences between the transport sectors with respect to the size and mix of short- and long-lived effects, and even the sign of the temperature response. For year 2000 emissions, road transport has the largest effect on global mean temperature. After 20 and 100 years the response in net temperature is 7 and 6 times higher, respectively, than for aviation. Aviation and shipping have strong but quite uncertain short-lived warming and cooling effects, respectively, that dominate during the first decades after the emissions. For shipping the net cooling during the first 4 decades is due to emissions of SO2 and NOx. On a longer timescale, the current emissions from shipping cause net warming due to the persistence of the CO2 perturbation. If emissions stay constant at 2000 levels, the warming effect from road transport will continue to increase and will be almost 4 times larger than that of aviation by the end of the century. PMID:19047640

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change. 1; Respective Influences of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Climate Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Perlwitz, J.; Lonergan, P.

2005-01-01

We utilize the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model and 8 different climate change experiments, many of them focused on stratospheric climate forcings, to assess the relative influence of tropospheric and stratospheric climate change on the extratropical circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation, AO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). The experiments are run in two different ways: with variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to allow for a full tropospheric climate response, and with specified SSTs to minimize the tropospheric change. The results show that tropospheric warming (cooling) experiments and stratospheric cooling (warming) experiments produce more positive (negative) AO/NAO indices. For the typical magnitudes of tropospheric and stratospheric climate changes, the tropospheric response dominates; results are strongest when the tropospheric and stratospheric influences are producing similar phase changes. Both regions produce their effect primarily by altering wave propagation and angular momentum transports, but planetary wave energy changes accompanying tropospheric climate change are also important. Stratospheric forcing has a larger impact on the NAO than on the AO, and the angular momentum transport changes associated with it peak in the upper troposphere, affecting all wavenumbers. Tropospheric climate changes influence both the A0 and NAO with effects that extend throughout the troposphere. For both forcings there is often vertical consistency in the sign of the momentum transport changes, obscuring the difference between direct and indirect mechanisms for influencing the surface circulation.

TOPEX/El Niño Watch - Strong, Long-lasting La Niña Just Fading Away, June 19, 2000

NASA Image and Video Library

2000-07-06

After dominating the tropical Pacific Ocean for more than two years, the 1998-2000 La Niña cool pool is continuing its slow fade and seems to be retiring from the climate stage, according to satellite data from NASA U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission.

The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

Fourteen years of forage monitoring on the California Central Coast shows tremendous variation

Treesearch

Royce Larsen; Karl Striby; Marc Horney

2015-01-01

To better understand forage production (above ground biomass) and precipitation patterns in the Central Coast region of California, the first in a growing network of primary production monitoring sites were established in 2001. The California Central Coast has a Mediterranean climate with cool, moist winters and hot, dry summers, and is dominated by annual grasslands...

Late Quaternary glaciation history of monsoon-dominated Dingad basin, central Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Tanuj; Mehta, Manish; Jaiswal, Manoj K.; Srivastava, Pradeep; Dobhal, D. P.; Nainwal, H. C.; Singh, Atul K.

2018-02-01

The study presents the Late Quaternary glaciation history of monsoon-dominated Dokriani Glacier valley, Dingad basin, central Himalaya, India. The basin is tested for the mechanism of landforms preservation in high relief and abundant precipitation regimes of the Higher Himalaya. Field geomorphology and remote sensing data, supported by Optical Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating enabled identification of five major glacial events of decreasing magnitude. The oldest glacial stage, Dokriani Glacial Stage I (DGS-I), extended down to ∼8 km (2883 m asl) from present-day snout (3965 m asl) followed by other four glaciations events viz. DGS-II, DGS-III, DGS-IV and DGS-V terminating at ∼3211, 3445, 3648 and ∼3733 m asl respectively. The DGS-I glaciation (∼25-∼22 ka BP) occurred during early Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) -2, characterized as Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) extension of the valley. Similarly, DGS-II stage (∼14-∼11 ka BP) represents the global cool and dry Older Dryas and Younger Dryas event glaciation. The DGS-III glaciation (∼8 ka BP) coincides with early Holocene 8.2 ka cooling event, the DGS-IV glaciations (∼4-3.7 ka BP) corresponds to 4.2 ka cool and drier event, DGS-V (∼2.7-∼1 ka BP) represents the cool and moist late Holocene glacial advancement of the valley. This study suggests that the Dokriani Glacier valley responded to the global lowering of temperature and variable precipitation conditions. This study also highlights the close correlation between the monsoon-dominated valley glaciations and Northern Hemisphere cooling events influenced by North Atlantic climate.

Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures.

PubMed

Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N; Bartlein, Patrick J; Shafer, Sarah L; Brewer, Simon

2018-01-31

Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in 'growing degree days'-a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year-of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that climate models can adequately simulate climates for periods other than the present-day. They also demonstrate that amplified warming in recent decades increased temperatures above the mean of any century during the past 11,000 years.

Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Brewer, Simon

2018-02-01

Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in ‘growing degree days’—a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year—of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that climate models can adequately simulate climates for periods other than the present-day. They also demonstrate that amplified warming in recent decades increased temperatures above the mean of any century during the past 11,000 years.

Detecting the global and regional effects of sulphate aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Eunice; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Highwood, Ellie

2017-04-01

Climate warming is unequivocal. In addition to carbon dioxide emission mitigation, some geoengineering ideas have been proposed to reduce future surface temperature rise. One of these proposals involves injecting sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to increase the planet's albedo. Monitoring the effectiveness of sulphate aerosol injection (SAI) would require us to be able to distinguish and detect its cooling effect from the climate system's internal variability and other externally forced temperature changes. This research uses optimal fingerprinting techniques together with simulations from the GeoMIP data base to estimate the number of years of observations that would be needed to detect SAI's cooling signal in near-surface air temperature, should 5 Tg of sulphur dioxide be injected into the stratosphere per year on top of RCP4.5 from 2020-2070. The first part of the research compares the application of two detection methods that have different null hypotheses to SAI detection in global mean near-surface temperature. The first method assumes climate noise to be dominated by unforced climate variability and attempts to detect the SAI cooling signal and greenhouse gas driven warming signal in the "observations" simultaneously against this noise. The second method considers greenhouse gas driven warming to be a non-stationary background climate and attempts to detect the net cooling effect of SAI against this background. Results from this part of the research show that the conventional multi-variate detection method that has been extensively used to attribute climate warming to anthropogenic sources could also be applied for geoengineering detection. The second part of the research investigates detection of geoengineering effects on the regional scale. The globe is divided into various sub-continental scale regions and the cooling effect of SAI is looked for in the temperature time series in each of these regions using total least squares multi-variate detection. Results show that surface temperature observations would be most useful for SAI detection in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, especially in East Asia. This can be used to indicate the optimal observational network for monitoring the effectiveness of SAI in the future, should that be needed.

Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Ren, R.-C.; Cai, Ming

2016-12-01

The stratosphere has been cooling under global warming, the causes of which are not yet well understood. This study applied a process-based decomposition method (CFRAM; Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method) to the simulation results of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) model (CCSM4; Community Climate System Model, version 4), to demonstrate the responsible radiative and non-radiative processes involved in the stratospheric cooling. By focusing on the long-term stratospheric temperature changes between the "historical run" and the 8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, this study demonstrates that the changes of radiative radiation due to CO2, ozone and water vapor are the main divers of stratospheric cooling in both winter and summer. They contribute to the cooling changes by reducing the net radiative energy (mainly downward radiation) received by the stratospheric layer. In terms of the global average, their contributions are around -5, -1.5, and -1 K, respectively. However, the observed stratospheric cooling is much weaker than the cooling by radiative processes. It is because changes in atmospheric dynamic processes act to strongly mitigate the radiative cooling by yielding a roughly 4 K warming on the global average base. In particular, the much stronger/weaker dynamic warming in the northern/southern winter extratropics is associated with an increase of the planetary-wave activity in the northern winter, but a slight decrease in the southern winter hemisphere, under global warming. More importantly, although radiative processes dominate the stratospheric cooling, the spatial patterns are largely determined by the non-radiative effects of dynamic processes.

Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

2014-01-01

Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc.) dominate the long term climate evolution in the simulations. To better constrain the magnitude and uncertainties of irrigation-forced climate anomalies, irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multimodel assessments.

Utilising green and bluespace to mitigate urban heat island intensity.

PubMed

Gunawardena, K R; Wells, M J; Kershaw, T

2017-04-15

It has long been recognised that cities exhibit their own microclimate and are typically warmer than the surrounding rural areas. This 'mesoscale' influence is known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect and results largely from modification of surface properties leading to greater absorption of solar radiation, reduced convective cooling and lower water evaporation rates. Cities typically contain less vegetation and bodies of water than rural areas, and existing green and bluespace is often under threat from increasing population densities. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the key ways in which green and bluespace affect both urban canopy- and boundary-layer temperatures, examined from the perspectives of city-planning, urban climatology and climate science. The analysis suggests that the evapotranspiration-based cooling influence of both green and bluespace is primarily relevant for urban canopy-layer conditions, and that tree-dominated greenspace offers the greatest heat stress relief when it is most needed. However, the magnitude and transport of cooling experienced depends on size, spread, and geometry of greenspaces, with some solitary large parks found to offer minimal boundary-layer cooling. Contribution to cooling at the scale of the urban boundary-layer climate is attributed mainly to greenspace increasing surface roughness and thereby improving convection efficiency rather than evaporation. Although bluespace cooling and transport during the day can be substantial, nocturnal warming is highlighted as likely when conditions are most oppressive. However, when both features are employed together they can offer many synergistic ecosystem benefits including cooling. The ways in which green and bluespace infrastructure is applied in future urban growth strategies, particularly in countries expected to experience rapid urbanisation, warrants greater consideration in urban planning policy to mitigate the adverse effects of the UHI and enhance climate resilience. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early to middle Miocene climate evolution: benthic oxygen and carbon isotope records from Walvis Ridge Site 1264.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lourens, L. J.; Beddow, H.; Liebrand, D.; Schrader, C.; Hilgen, F. J.

2016-12-01

Across the early to middle Miocene, high-resolution records from the Pacific Ocean indicate a dynamic climate system, encompassing a 2 Myr global warming event from 17 Ma to 14.7 Ma, followed by a major Cenozoic cooling step at 14.2 Ma -13.8 Ma. Currently, no high-resolution benthic record from the Atlantic Ocean exists covering both events, limiting global coverage of this intriguing period in Cenozoic climate evolution. Here, we present the first early to middle Miocene high-resolution from the Atlantic basin. These records, from Site 1264 on the Walvis Ridge, span a 5.5 Myr long interval (13.24-18.90 ma) in high temporal resolution ( 4 kyr) and are tuned to eccentricity. The d18O record shows a sudden (high-latitude) warming/deglaciation on Antarctica at 17.1 Ma, a rapid cooling/glaciation of Antarctica at 13.8 Ma, and high-amplitude ( 1‰) variability on astronomical time-scales throughout this interval. Together with other records from this time interval located in the Pacific, which show similar features, the data strongly suggests a highly dynamic global climate system. We find cooling steps in d18O at 14.7, 14.2 and 13.8 Ma, suggesting concurrent cooling in the Pacific and Atlantic deep waters during the MMCT. The benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records reveal that the dominant astronomical frequencies present at ODP Site 1264 during the early to middle Miocene interval are the 405 kyr and 110 kyr eccentricity periodicities. This is a contrast to other early to middle Miocene records from drill-sites in the Pacific and South China Sea, which show a strong expression of obliquity in particular between 14.2 and 14.7 Ma.

Antarctic climate cooling and response of diatoms in glacial meltwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esposito, R.M.M.; Horn, S.L.; McKnight, Diane M.; Cox, M.J.; Grant, M.C.; Spaulding, S.A.; Doran, P.T.; Cozzetto, K.D.

2006-01-01

To understand biotic responses to an Antarctic cooling trend diatom samples from glacial meltwater streams in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, the largest ice-free area in Antarctica. Diatoms are abundant in these streams, and 24 of 40 species have only been found in the Antarctic. The percentage of these Antarctic diatom species increased with decreasing annual stream flow and increasing harshness of the stream habitat. The species diversity of assemblages reached a maximum when the Antarctic species accounted for 40-60% of relative diatom abundance. Decreased solar radiation and air-temperatures reduce annual stream flow, raising the dominance of these Antarctic species to levels above 60%. Thus, cooling favors the Antarctic species, and lowers diatom species diversity in this region. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Insolation and the Precession Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubincam, David Parry

2000-01-01

Simple nonlinear climate models yield a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin omega, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and omega is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these periods. Two such models, a grey body and an energy balance climate model with an added quadratic term, produce e sin omega terms in temperature. These terms, which without feedback mechanisms achieve extreme values of about plus or minus 0.48 K for the grey body and plus or minus 0.64 K for the energy balance model, simultaneously cool one hemisphere while they warm the other. Moreover, they produce long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perigee is near northern solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the perigee is near southern solstice. Thus this seemingly paradoxical mechanism works against the standard model which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it may be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is close to the Earth during southern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Aerosol climate change effects on land ecosystem services.

PubMed

Unger, N; Yue, X; Harper, K L

2017-08-24

A coupled global aerosol-carbon-climate model is applied to assess the impacts of aerosol physical climate change on the land ecosystem services gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in the 1996-2005 period. Aerosol impacts are quantified on an annual mean basis relative to the hypothetical aerosol-free world in 1996-2005, the global climate state in the absence of the historical rise in aerosol pollution. We examine the separate and combined roles of fast feedbacks associated with the land and slow feedbacks associated with the ocean. We consider all fossil fuel, biofuel and biomass burning aerosol emission sources as anthropogenic. The effective radiative forcing for aerosol-radiation interactions is -0.44 W m -2 and aerosol-cloud interactions is -1.64 W m -2 . Aerosols cool and dry the global climate system by -0.8 °C and -0.08 mm per day relative to the aerosol-free world. Without aerosol pollution, human-induced global warming since the preindustrial would have already exceeded the 1.5 °C aspirational limit set in the Paris Agreement by the 1996-2005 decade. Aerosol climate impacts on the global average land ecosystem services are small due to large opposite sign effects in the tropical and boreal biomes. Aerosol slow feedbacks associated with the ocean strongly dominate impacts in the Amazon and North American Boreal. Aerosol cooling of the Amazon by -1.2 °C drives NPP increases of 8% or +0.76 ± 0.61 PgC per year, a 5-10 times larger impact than estimates of diffuse radiation fertilization by biomass burning aerosol in this region. The North American Boreal suffers GPP and NPP decreases of 35% due to aerosol-induced cooling and drying (-1.6 °C, -0.14 mm per day). Aerosol-land feedbacks play a larger role in the eastern US and Central Africa. Our study identifies an eco-climate teleconnection in the polluted earth system: the rise of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude reflective aerosol pollution layer causes long range cooling that protects Amazon NPP by 8% and suppresses boreal NPP by 35%.

Macroecology of Australian Tall Eucalypt Forests: Baseline Data from a Continental-Scale Permanent Plot Network

PubMed Central

Wood, Sam W.; Prior, Lynda D.; Stephens, Helen C.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2015-01-01

Tracking the response of forest ecosystems to climate change demands large (≥1 ha) monitoring plots that are repeatedly measured over long time frames and arranged across macro-ecological gradients. Continental scale networks of permanent forest plots have identified links between climate and carbon fluxes by monitoring trends in tree growth, mortality and recruitment. The relationship between tree growth and climate in Australia has been recently articulated through analysis of data from smaller forest plots, but conclusions were limited by (a) absence of data on recruitment and mortality, (b) exclusion of non-eucalypt species, and (c) lack of knowledge of stand age or disturbance histories. To remedy these gaps we established the Ausplots Forest Monitoring Network: a continental scale network of 48 1 ha permanent plots in highly productive tall eucalypt forests in the mature growth stage. These plots are distributed across cool temperate, Mediterranean, subtropical and tropical climates (mean annual precipitation 850 to 1900 mm per year; mean annual temperature 6 to 21°C). Aboveground carbon stocks (AGC) in these forests are dominated by eucalypts (90% of AGC) whilst non-eucalypts in the understorey dominated species diversity and tree abundance (84% of species; 60% of stems). Aboveground carbon stocks were negatively related to mean annual temperature, with forests at the warm end of the temperature range storing approximately half the amount of carbon as forests at the cool end of the temperature range. This may reflect thermal constraints on tree growth detected through other plot networks and physiological studies. Through common protocols and careful sampling design, the Ausplots Forest Monitoring Network will facilitate the integration of tall eucalypt forests into established global forest monitoring initiatives. In the context of projections of rapidly warming and drying climates in Australia, this plot network will enable detection of links between climate and growth, mortality and carbon dynamics of eucalypt forests. PMID:26368919

Aerosol Radiative Forcing in Asian Continental Outflow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pueschel, R.; Kinne, S.; Redemann, J.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Aerosols in elevated layers were sampled with FSSP-probes and wire impactors over the Pacific ocean aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft. Analyses of particle size and morphology identifies two distinctly different aerosol types for cases when the mid-visible extinctions exceed 0.2/km. Smaller sizes (effective radii of 0.2 um) and moderate absorption (mid-visible single scattering albedo of.935) are typical for urban-industrial pollution. Larger sizes (effective radii of 0.7 um) and weak absorption (mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.985) identify dust. This aerosol classification is in agreement with its origin as determined by airmass back trajectory analysis. Based on lidar vertical profiling, aerosol dominated by dust and urban-industrial pollution above 3km were assigned mid-visible optical depths of 0.50 and 0.27, respectively. Radiative transfer simulations, considering a 50% cloud-cover below the aerosol layers, suggest (on a daily tP C)C> basis) small reductions (-4W/m2) to the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere for both aerosol types. For c' 0 dust, more backscattering of sunlight (weaker solar absorption) is compensated by a stronger greenhouse effect due to larger sizes. Forced reductions to the energy budget at the surface are 12W/m2 for both aerosol types. In contrast, impacts on heating rates within the aerosol layers are quite different: While urban-industrial aerosol warms the layer (at +0.6K/day as solar heating dominates), dust cools (at -0.5K/day as infrared cooling dominates). Sensitivity tests show the dependence of the aerosol climatic impact on the optical depth, particle size, absorptivity, and altitude of the layers, as well as clouds and surface properties. Climatic cooling can be eliminated (1) for the urban-industrial aerosol if absorption is increased to yield a mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.89, or if the ocean is replaced by a land surface; (2) for the dust aerosol if the effective radius is increased from 0.7 to 1.2 um. The removal of low-level clouds doubles the cooling at the top of the atmosphere to about -8W/m2.

Changing seasonality patterns in Central Europe from Miocene Climate Optimum to Miocene Climate Transition deduced from the Crassostrea isotope archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harzhauser, Mathias; Piller, Werner E.; Müllegger, Stefan; Grunert, Patrick; Micheels, Arne

2011-03-01

The Western Tethyan estuarine oyster Crassostrea gryphoides is an excellent climate archive due to its large size and rapid growth. It is geologically long lived and allows a stable isotope-based insight into climatic trends during the Miocene. Herein we utilised the climate archive of 5 oyster shells from the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO) and the subsequent Miocene Climate Transition (MCT) to evaluate changes of seasonality patterns. MCO shells exhibit highly regular seasonal rhythms of warm-wet and dry-cool seasons. Optimal conditions resulted in extraordinary growth rates of the oysters. δ 13C profiles are in phase with δ 18O although phytoplankton blooms may cause a slight offset. Estuarine waters during the MCO in Central Europe display a seasonal temperature range of c. 9-10 °C. Absolute water temperatures have ranged from 17 to 19 °C during cool seasons and up to 28 °C in warm seasons. Already during the early phase of the MCO, the growth rates are distinctly declining, although gigantic and extremely old shells have been formed at that time. Still, a very regular and well expressed seasonality is dominating the isotope profiles, but episodically occurring extreme climate events influence the environments. The seasonal temperature range is still c. 9 °C but the cool season temperature seems to be slightly lower (16 °C) and the warm season water temperature does not exceed c. 25 °C. In the later MCT at c. 12.5-12.0 Ma the seasonality pattern is breaking down and is replaced by successions of dry years with irregular precipitation events. No correlation between δ 18O and δ 13C is documented maybe due to a suboptimal nutrition level which would explain the low growth rates and small sizes. The amplitude of seasonal temperature range is decreasing to 5-8 °C. No clear cooling trend can be postulated for that time as the winter season water temperatures range from 15 to 20 °C. This may point to unstable precipitation rhythms on a multi-annual to decadal scale as main difference between MCO and MCT climates in Central Europe instead of a simple temperature decline scenario.

Strong contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of urban green vegetation.

PubMed

Yu, Zhaowu; Xu, Shaobin; Zhang, Yuhan; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Vejre, Henrik

2018-05-01

Utilization of urban green vegetation (UGV) has been recognized as a promising option to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect. While we still lack understanding of the contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of UGV. Here we proposed and employed a cooling effect framework and selected eight typical cities located in Temperate Monsoon Climate (TMC) and Mediterranean Climate (MC) demonstrate that local climate condition largely affects the cooling effect of UGV. Specifically, we found increasing (artificial) rainfall and irrigation contribute to improving the cooling intensity of grassland in both climates, particularly in the hot-dry environment. The cities with high relative humidity would restrict the cooling effect of UGV. Increasing wind speed would significantly enhance the tree-covered while weakening the grass-covered UGVs' cooling effect in MC cities. We also identified that, in order to achieve the most effective cooling with the smallest sized tree-covered UGV, the area of trees in both climate zones' cities should generally be planned around 0.5 ha. The method and results enhance understanding of the cooling effect of UGVs on larger (climate) scales and provide important insights for UGV planning and management.

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

PubMed

Myhre, G; Samset, B H; Hodnebrog, Ø; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Forster, P M; Kasoar, M; Kharin, V; Kirkevåg, A; Lamarque, J-F; Olivié, D; Richardson, T B; Shawki, D; Shindell, D; Shine, K P; Stjern, C W; Takemura, T; Voulgarakis, A

2018-05-15

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

Pliocene environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.

2007-01-01

The Pliocene spans the interval of Earth history from ca. 5.3 to 1.8 million years ago (Ma). Although details are still debated there is much evidence from continental and oceanic locations indicating that conditions from 5.3 to about 3.0 Ma were often warmer than in modern times in mid- and high latitudes and that climate variability was subdued compared to the Pleistocene. Millennial-scale early Pliocene climate records are dominated by 19–21 thousand years ago (ka) oscillations. Starting at about 3.0 Ma, a long-term trend toward climate cooling and the ice ages of the Pleistocene accelerated. Significant build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets began around 2.9 Ma and climate variability as measured by the oxygen isotope record in deep-sea carbonate microfossils increased. Distinct glacial–interglacial cycles developed in the late Pliocene between 2.9 and 2.7 Ma.

Demand Shifting with Thermal Mass in Large Commercial Buildings in a California Hot Climate Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Peng; Yin, Rongxin; Brown, Carrie

2009-06-01

The potential for using building thermal mass for load shifting and peak energy demand reduction has been demonstrated in a number of simulation, laboratory, and field studies. Previous Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory research has demonstrated that the approach is very effective in cool and moderately warm climate conditions (California Climate Zones 2-4). However, this method had not been tested in hotter climate zones. This project studied the potential of pre-cooling the building early in the morning and increasing temperature setpoints during peak hours to reduce cooling-related demand in two typical office buildings in hotter California climates ? one in Visaliamore » (CEC Climate Zone 13) and the other in San Bernardino (CEC Climate Zone 10). The conclusion of the work to date is that pre-cooling in hotter climates has similar potential to that seen previously in cool and moderate climates. All other factors being equal, results to date indicate that pre-cooling increases the depth (kW) and duration (kWh) of the possible demand shed of a given building. The effectiveness of night pre-cooling in typical office building under hot weather conditions is very limited. However, night pre-cooling is helpful for office buildings with an undersized HVAC system. Further work is required to duplicate the tests in other typical buildings and in other hot climate zones and prove that pre-cooling is truly effective.« less

Temperature Reconstruction and Biomarker Variation across the Cretaceous-Paleogene Boundary, Mid-Waipara River, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, K. W.; Hollis, C. J.; Pancost, R. D.

2010-12-01

The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary marks a catastrophic global extinction event, believed to be caused by an asteroid impact in northern Yucatan. Whilst the extent of mass extinction is well documented, there is ongoing debate about the immediate and longer term climatic and environmental changes triggered by the event. The northern South Island of New Zealand has several records of the K/Pg boundary, representing a range of terrestrial and marine environments. Previous studies of terrestrial palynomorphs and siliceous microfossils from these sections suggested significant cooling and terrestrial vegetation reconfiguration in the earliest Paleocene. Extinctions or local disappearances of thermophilic taxa at the K/Pg boundary are consistent with the hypothesis of a short-lived “impact winter”. The Mid-Waipara K/Pg boundary section, north Canterbury, has been identified as suitable for organic geochemical study because sufficient organic carbon is present in the siliciclastic sediments and is thermally immature. Sediments were deposited in outer shelf to upper slope depths under a neritic watermass. New estimates of sea surface temperature variation based on TEX86 elucidate the relationship between biological and climatic changes that followed the K/Pg event. Within the 0.25 m-thick interval identified as the “fern spike” in basal Paleocene sediments in this section there is no indication of a significant change in temperature relative to the Cretaceous (22-25°C). Foraminiferal and radiolarian biostratigraphy indicates that this interval spans ~100 kyrs and includes a fern succession from colonising ground ferns to tree ferns, the latter suggesting a temperate, humid climate. The transition from ferns to a conifer-dominated pollen assemblage corresponds with a remarkable decrease in temperature recorded in the TEX86 record. These cool temperatures persist over 10 m. The dominant conifer pollen type over this interval is Phyllocladites mawsonii, indicative of cool-temperate conditions. Preliminary biostratigraphic correlation suggests that this interval is condensed, possibly truncated at the base, and may be correlated to a more expanded biogenic silica-rich interval in the pelagic K/Pg boundary sections in eastern Marlborough, northeastern South Island. These results support siliceous microfossil evidence for pronounced cooling in early Paleocene in New Zealand. Organic biomarker records provide further insight into terrestrial and marine ecological reconfiguration through the K/Pg boundary transition at Mid-Waipara River. Major reorganisations of the phytoplankton and archaeal communities are indicated by pronounced changes in sterol and tetraether distributions following the K/Pg boundary. Transient disruption of higher plants at the boundary is verified by suppression of n-alkane and triterpenoid biomarker concentrations, succeeded by a gradual recovery into the Early Paleocene. The scenario envisaged may be summarised as climate instability following the K/Pg boundary event, culminating in cool climatic conditions and a strengthened local upwelling regime leading to widespread deposition of diatom-rich siliceous sediments, lasting for around 1 Myr.

Climate and vegetation since the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) in a putative glacial refugium, northern Idaho, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herring, Erin M.; Gavin, Daniel G.

2015-06-01

There are very few terrestrial sediment records from North America that contain a nearly continuous sequence spanning from the Last Interglacial period to the present. We present stratigraphic records of pollen and several other proxies from a Carex-dominated wetland, Star Meadows, located 140 km south of the maximum extent of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet and near the current southern extent of interior mesic forests in northern Idaho. Many species in this region are disjunct by 160 km of arid steppe and dry forest from their more extensive distribution along the Pacific Northwest coast and may have survived in an interior refugium. The chronology for the upper 251 cm was determined by six radiocarbon dates and one tephra deposit, and the age of the remainder of the core (251-809 cm) was estimated by correlation with SPECMAP δ18O. Fluctuating water levels were inferred from alternating peat, biogenic silica, and aquatic pollen types. During MIS 5e the region was warmer and drier than today and was dominated by Pinus (likely Pinus contorta) mixed conifer forest surrounding a Carex meadow. A cool-moist climate (MIS 5b-5d) soon developed, and the site was inundated with deep water. Pollen indicated wetland vegetation (Betula glandulosa, Typhaceae, and Salix) developed around a lake with a Pseudotsuga/Larix and Picea forest on the surrounding slopes. During MIS 5a, a warmer climate supported a Pseudotsuga/Larix, Abies, and Picea forest on the surrounding hillsides and a Carex-dominated environment within a dry meadow. From MIS 4 to MIS 3, a cool and wet Pinus and Picea forest predominated. Water levels rose, enabling Nuphar to persist within a perennial lake while a sedge fen established along the lake margin. As climate transitioned into MIS 2, a cooler and drier climate supported a Pinus and Picea subalpine parkland, though water levels remained high enough to support Nuphar. During the Last Glacial Maximum the sediment was mainly silt and clay with high Artemisia and very poor pollen preservation. Glaciers descended to 500 m elevation above Star Meadows in adjacent drainages suggesting a periglacial environment occurred at the site. Lake level decreased through the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (ca. 11.7 ka) and the site returned to a sedge peatland surrounded by an open Pinus forest. The most striking vegetation change occurred in the middle to late Holocene with the first occurrence and then later dominance of Cupressaceae pollen, most likely Thuja plicata, which is a dominant species in modern interior mesic forests. The late Holocene vegetation was uniquely mesic in the context of the last 120,000 years, casting doubt on this region serving as a glacial refugium.

Impact of climate change on cold hardiness of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): environmental and genetic considerations.

PubMed

Bansal, Sheel; St Clair, J Bradley; Harrington, Constance A; Gould, Peter J

2015-10-01

The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e., cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer-dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G × E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, and warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to test the hypotheses: (i) cool-temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, (ii) there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed-source climate variables, (iii) observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, and (iv) movement of seed sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle, and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool-temperature cues (e.g., degree hours below 2 °C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3-fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed-source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed-source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold hardiness, and seed-source movement from warmer to cooler climates may be a viable option for adapting coniferous forest to future climate. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubincam, David

2004-01-01

A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Paleoenvironmental and ecological changes during the Eocene-Oligocene transition based on foraminifera from the Cap Bon Peninsula in North East Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grira, Chaima; Karoui-Yaakoub, Narjess; Negra, Mohamed Hédi; Rivero-Cuesta, Lucia; Molina, Eustoquio

2018-07-01

Biostratigraphic analysis of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (E-O) at the Menzel Bou Zelfa and Jhaff composite section in the Cap Bon Peninsula (North East Tunisia) allowed us to recognize a continuous planktic foraminiferal biozonation: E14 Globigerinatheka semiinvoluta Zone, E15 Globigerinatheka index Zone, E16 Hantkenina alabamensis Zone and O1 Pseudohastigerina naguewichiensis Zone. A quantitative study of benthic and planktic foraminifera assemblages was carried out and the richness and diversity of foraminifera allowed us to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental evolution from marine to terrestrial environments. From the Eocene E14 Zone, the foraminiferal association characterizes a relatively warm climate with considerable oxygen content and a dominance of keeled and spinose planktic foraminifera, which became extinct at the E/O boundary, possibly due to cooling of the planktic environment. Nevertheless, the small benthic foraminifera do not show an extinction event at the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) boundary, indicating that the benthic environment was not significantly affected. In the basal Oligocene O1 Zone, the benthic environment changes to a shallower setting due to cooling of the climate. These changes generated a remarkable dominance of globular forms in the planktic environment. Small benthic foraminifera apparently have a gradual extinction event, or more likely a gradual pattern of local disappearances, that could have been caused by the Oi1 glaciation.

Glaciation as a destructive and constructive control on mountain building.

PubMed

Thomson, Stuart N; Brandon, Mark T; Tomkin, Jonathan H; Reiners, Peter W; Vásquez, Cristián; Wilson, Nathaniel J

2010-09-16

Theoretical analysis predicts that enhanced erosion related to late Cenozoic global cooling can act as a first-order influence on the internal dynamics of mountain building, leading to a reduction in orogen width and height. The strongest response is predicted in orogens dominated by highly efficient alpine glacial erosion, producing a characteristic pattern of enhanced erosion on the windward flank of the orogen and maximum elevation controlled by glacier equilibrium line altitude, where long-term glacier mass gain equals mass loss. However, acquiring definitive field evidence of an active tectonic response to global climate cooling has been elusive. Here we present an extensive new low-temperature thermochronologic data set from the Patagonian Andes, a high-latitude active orogen with a well-documented late Cenozoic tectonic, climatic and glacial history. Data from 38° S to 49° S record a marked acceleration in erosion 7 to 5 Myr ago coeval with the onset of major Patagonian glaciation and retreat of deformation from the easternmost thrust front. The highest rates and magnitudes of erosion are restricted to the glacial equilibrium line altitude on the windward western flank of the orogen, as predicted in models of glaciated critical taper orogens where erosion rate is a function of ice sliding velocity. In contrast, towards higher latitudes (49° S to 56° S) a transition to older bedrock cooling ages signifies much reduced late Cenozoic erosion despite dominantly glacial conditions here since the latest Miocene. The increased height of the orogenic divide at these latitudes (well above the equilibrium line altitude) leads us to conclude that the southernmost Patagonian Andes represent the first recognized example of regional glacial protection of an active orogen from erosion, leading to constructive growth in orogen height and width.

How We Got to the Northern Hemisphere Ice Ages: Late Miocene Global Cooling and Plate Tectonic CO2 Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbert, T.; Dalton, C. A.; Carchedi, C.

2017-12-01

The evolution of Earth's climate between "refrigeration" of East Antarctica and the onset of cyclic Northern Hemisphere glaciation spanned more than 11 Myr. In the latest Miocene (Messinian) time, approximately half way on this journey, changes on land, ranging from the expansion of arid zones to major floral and faunal ecosystem shifts, accelerated. Recent compilations of marine surface temperatures reveal that global cooling from the Miocene Optimum (14-16Ma) also accelerated in late Miocene (7-5.35 Ma) time to reach temperatures not much above Holocene conditions. Both hemispheres cooled in parallel, with the changes amplified at higher latitudes in comparison to the tropics. Despite the strong circumstantial case for CO2 decline as the dominant cause of late Miocene climatic and evolutionary change, proxy indicators of CO2concentrations paint an equivocal picture of greenhouse forcing. Here we provide evidence that global sea floor spreading (SFS) rates decelerated at exactly the times of major climatic cooling, linking a decline in tectonic degassing (at both subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges) to fundamental shifts in the global carbon cycle. Our work utilizes newly available global compilations of seafloor fabric and marine magnetic anomalies provided by the NSF-funded Global Seafloor Fabric and Magnetic Lineation Data Base Project. Previous global compilations of SFS typically binned estimates over 10 Myr increments, losing critical resolution on the timescale of late Neogene climate changes. We further improve the signal:noise of SFS estimates by incorporating recent advances in the astronomical calibration of the Miocene geomagnetic polarity timescale. We use two approaches to compile spreading rate estimates over the past 20 Myr at each spreading system: optimized finite rotation calculations, and averages of sea floor-spreading derived from the distances of magnetic lineations along flow lines on the sea floor. Weighted by ridge length, we find an 25% reduction in global SFS since 15 Ma, with the decline most pronounced in the interval 8-5.5 Ma and approximate stasis in the Plio-Pleistocene. Comparison of SFS to global temperature estimates suggest a short time delay (unresolvable at the sample resolution) between tectonic forcing and climate response.

Shallow Horizontal GCHP Effectiveness in Arid Climate Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

North, Timothy James

Ground coupled heat pumps (GCHPs) have been used successfully in many environments to improve the heating and cooling efficiency of both small and large scale buildings. In arid climate regions, such as the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area, where the air condi-tioning load is dominated by cooling in the summer, GCHPs are difficult to install and operate. This is because the nature of soils in arid climate regions, in that they are both dry and hot, renders them particularly ineffective at dissipating heat. The first part of this thesis addresses applying the SVHeat finite element modeling soft-ware to create a model of a GCHP system. Using real-world data from a prototype solar-water heating system coupled with a ground-source heat exchanger installed in Menlo Park, California, a relatively accurate model was created to represent a novel GCHP panel system installed in a shallow vertical trench. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the calibrated model. The second part of the thesis involved adapting the calibrated model to represent an ap-proximation of soil conditions in arid climate regions, using a range of thermal properties for dry soils. The effectiveness of the GCHP in the arid climate region model was then evaluated by comparing the thermal flux from the panel into the subsurface profile to that of the prototype GCHP. It was shown that soils in arid climate regions are particularly inefficient at heat dissipation, but that it is highly dependent on the thermal conductivity inputted into the model. This demonstrates the importance of proper site characterization in arid climate regions. Finally, several soil improvement methods were researched to evaluate their potential for use in improving the effectiveness of shallow horizontal GCHP systems in arid climate regions.

Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

PubMed

de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

2014-07-01

Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, A. R.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Schoeberl, M. R.

2006-01-01

Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a crossover between lower atmospheric heating and upper atmospheric cooling that is located at about 90 hPa in the tropics and 30-40 hPa in the polar regions. This results from the combination of continuing increases in greehouse gases and recovery from ozone depletion.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE PAGES

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; ...

2016-12-15

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; Ban-Weiss, G.

2016-12-01

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Seasonality of climate change and oscillations in the Northeast Asia and Northwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V.; Salomatin, A.; Kaplunenko, D.; Krokhin, V.

2003-04-01

The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the seasonality of centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and dominated oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asia, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST. We use monthly mean data for the 20th century from the NOAA Global History Climatic Network, JMA data base and WMU/COADS World Atlas of Surface Marine Data. Details of climate change/oscillations associated with cooling or warming in different areas and periods of a year are revealed. Wavelet analyses and two methods of the linear trend estimation are applied. First one is least-squares (LS) method with Fisher’s test for statistical significance level. Second one is nonparametric robust (NR) method, based on Theil's rank regression and Kendall's test for statistical significance level. The NR method should be applied to time series with abnormal distribution function typical for precipitation time series. Application of the NR method result in increase the statistical significance of both positive and negative linear trends in all cases of abnormal distribution with negative/positive skewness and low/high kurtosis. Using this method, we have determined spatial patterns of statistically significant climatic trends in surface air temperature, precipitation in the Northeast Asia, and in the Northwest Pacific SST. The most substantial centennial warming in the vast continental area of the mid-latitude band is found mainly for December March. The semi-centennial/ centennial cooling occurs in South Siberia and the subarctic mid-continental area in June September. Opposite tendencies were also revealed in precipitation and SST. Positive semi-centennial tendency in the SST in the second half of the 20th century predominates in the Kuroshio region and in the northwestern area of the subarctic gyre in winter. Negative tendency in the SST dominates in the southwestern subarctic gyre and the offshore area of the subtropic gyre in summer. Comparison of air temperature, precipitation, SST trends and oscillations in different seasons over land marginal and continental areas, as well as in the subarctic and subtropic zones indicates general features of the Northeast Asian Monsoon change/oscillation in 20th century and its second half. Similar features of seasonality in centennial, semi-centennial trends and dominated oscillations are manifested. Climate change and oscillation in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas revealed for the 20th century are explained.

Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D.; ...

2017-05-11

Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less

Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D.

Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less

Reconstructing the palaeoenvironments of the early Pleistocene mammal faunas from the pollen preserved on fossil bones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravazzi, Cesare; Pini, Roberta; Breda, Marzia

2009-12-01

We carried out a systematic investigation on the pollen content of sediment adhering to skeletal elements of large mammals which originate from the long lacustrine record of Leffe (Early Pleistocene of the Italian Alps). Three local faunas were discovered during mining activities along the intermediate part (spanning from 1.5 to 0.95 Ma) of the basin succession. The excellent pollen preservation allowed testing the reproducibility of the pollen signal from single skeletons. A clear palaeoenvironmental patterning, consistent with the ecological preferences of the considered mammal species, emerged from the canonical correspondence analysis of pollen types diagnostic for vegetation communities. Edaphic factors related to seasonal river activity changes and to the development of swamp forests in the riverbanks are significantly associated to the occurrences of Hippopotamus cf. antiquus, whereas finds of Mammuthus meridionalis belong to fully forested landscapes dominated by conifer or mixed forests of oceanic, warm to cool-temperate climate. Rhinoceros habitats include variable forest cover under different climate states. Distinct cool-temperate, partially open vegetation could be recognized for large deer included Cervalces cf carnutorum. A palynostratigraphic correlation between individual spectra and a reference palynostratigraphic record allowed assignment of many fossil remains to a precise stratigraphic position. This procedure also shown that the Leffe local faunas include specimens accumulated under different environmental and climate states, as a consequence of high-frequency climate changes characterizing the Late Villafranchian Early Pleistocene.

Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz

2017-08-01

Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.

Sedimentary evidence of landscape and climate history since the end of MIS 3 in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Zbyněk; Nývlt, Daniel; Křížek, Marek; Treml, Václav; Jankovská, Vlasta; Lisá, Lenka

2010-04-01

A sedimentary core recovered from the cirque basin of Labský důl valley (1039 m a.s.l.) in the Krkonoše Mountains reflects the environmental history for approximately the last 30,000 years. Analyses of magnetic susceptibility, carbon content, pollen assemblages and macrofossil data in a 15 m thick sediment sequence provide the first continuous record of Lateglacial and Holocene vegetation history in Sudetes region of the Czech Republic. The succession of sedimentary units in the lower part of the core suggests that the cirque was ice-free before the onset of the last glaciation at the beginning of marine isotope stage 2. Highly variable climate prevailed during this period with cold conditions culminating about 18 cal ka BP. Cold climates persisted until the Lateglacial period, evidenced by an identified warming and subsequent cooling event correlated with the Younger Dryas period. Sparse, treeless vegetation dominated in the catchment area at that time. The sequence of interrupted thinly laminated silts reflects the retreat and temporary readvance of a local glacier in the cirque during 12.5-10.8 cal ka BP. Subsequently, the alpine treeline ecotone gradually shifted above the cirque floor. Palaeoclimatic conditions in the early Holocene fluctuated strongly, whereas since 5.1 cal ka BP conditions have been more stable. Pollen-based climate reconstructions suggest significant cooling at around 9.8-9.3, 7.7-7.5 and 4.0-3.3 cal ka BP. Spruce forests have dominated the site since 5.0 cal ka BP when the vegetation became similar to the modern one. Two phases of increased sedimentation were identified within the Holocene culminating about 9.2-7.5 cal ka BP and 5.8-5.5 cal ka BP. Sediment yield was as high as 2.4 mm yr -1 during the period, reflecting environmental changes during the Atlantic/Sub-Boreal transition.

Evaluation of Water consumption and savings achieved in Datacenters through Air side Economization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Ravi

Recent researches and a few facility owners have focused on eliminating the chiller plant altogether by implementing 'Evaporative Cooling', as an alternative or augmentation to compressor-based air conditioning since the energy consumption is dominated by the compressor work (around 41%) in the chiller plant. Because evaporative cooling systems consume water, when evaluating the energy savings potential of these systems, it is imperative to consider not just their impacts on electricity use, but also their impacts on water consumption as well since Joe Kava, Google's head of data center operations, was quoted as saying that water is the "big elephant in the room" for data center companies. The objective of this study was to calculate the savings achieved in water consumption when these evaporative cooling systems were completely or partially marginalized when the facility is strictly working in the Economizer mode also known as 'free cooling' considering other modes of cooling required only for a part of the time when outside temperature, humidity and pollutant level were unfavorable causing improper functioning and reliability issues. The analysis was done on ASHRAE climatic zones with the help of TMY-3 weather data.

Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

PubMed

Schwartz, Mark W; Dolanc, Christopher R; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y; Schwartz, Ari C; Williams, John N; Tang, Ya

2013-01-01

Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th) century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

Forest Structure, Stand Composition, and Climate-Growth Response in Montane Forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Mark W.; Dolanc, Christopher R.; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y.; Schwartz, Ari C.; Williams, John N.; Tang, Ya

2013-01-01

Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth. PMID:23951188

The impact of different climates on window and skylight design for daylighting and passive cooling and heating in residential buildings: A comparative study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Sallal, K.A.

1999-07-01

The study aims to explore the effect of different climates on window and skylight design in residential buildings. The study house is evaluated against climates that have design opportunities for passive systems, with emphasis on passive cooling. The study applies a variety of methods to evaluate the design. It has found that earth sheltering and night ventilation have the potential to provide 12--29% and 25--77% of the cooling requirements respectively for the study house in the selected climates. The reduction of the glazing area from 174 ft{sup 2} to 115 ft{sup 2} has different impacts on the cooling energy costmore » in the different climates. In climates such Fresno and Tucson, one should put the cooling energy savings as a priority for window design, particularly when determining the window size. In other climates such as Albuquerque, the priority of window design should be first given to heating savings requirements.« less

Stable isotope (O and C) and pollen trends in eastern Lake Erie, evidence for a locally-induced climatic reversal of Younger Dryas age in the Great Lakes basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, C.F.M.; Anderson, T.W.

A cool period from about 11000 to 10500 BP (11 to 10.5 ka) is recognized in pollen records from the southern Great Lakes area by the return of Picea and Abies dominance and by the persistence of herbs. The area of cooling appears centred on the Upper Great Lakes. A high-resolution record (ca. 9 mm/y) from a borehole in eastern Lake Erie reveals, in the same time interval, this pollen anomaly, isotope evidence of melt-water presence (a-3 per mil shift in {delta} {sup 18}O and a + 1.1 per mil shift in {delta}{sup 13}C), increased sand, and reduced detrital calcitemore » content, all suggesting concurrent cooling of Lake Erie. The onset of cooling is mainly attributed to the effect of enhanced meltwater inflow on the relatively large upstream Main Lake Agassiz. Termination of the cooling coincides with drainage of Lake Algonquin, and is attributed to loss of its cooling effectiveness associated with a substantial reduction in its surface area. It is hypothesized that that the cold extra in-flow effectively prolonged the seasonal presence of lake ice and the period of spring overturn in Lake Algonquin. The deep mixing would have greatly increased the thermal conductive capacity of this extensive lake, causing suppression of summer surface lakewater temperatures and reduction of onshore growing-degree days. Alternatively, a rapid flow of meltwater, buoyed on sediment-charged (denser) lakewater, may have kept the lake surface cold in summer. Other factors such as wind-shifted pollen deposition and possible effects from the Younger Dryas North Atlantic cooling could have contributed to the Great Lakes climatic reversal, but further studies are needed to resolve their relative significance. 51 refs., 5 figs.« less

A revised climatology of SE Australia at the LGM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulmeister, James; Cohen, Tim; Kiernan, Kevin; Woodward, Craig; Clark, Doug; Fitzsimmons, Kat; Kemp, Justine; Gontz, Allen; Haworth, Robert; Moss, Patrick; Chang, Jie; Mueller, Daniela; Slee, Adrian; Ellerton, Dan

2015-04-01

This paper summarises some of the results of a recently completed project aimed at defining climate conditions at the LGM in south eastern Australia. We conclude that overall cooling on the SE mainland was 8-10°C but that cooling along the eastern coastal strip and in Tasmania was somewhat less (4-7°C). The persistence of a humid climate along the east coast and in the adjacent highlands allowed rivers to flow more strongly than during the Holocene. We suggest that onshore flow on the northern limbs of east coast high pressure cells, supplemented by moisture from east coast lows maintained this humid fringe. The processes were enhanced by increased sea-land temperature contrasts especially in winter and by reduced evapotranspiration under lower temperatures and altered vegetation cover. We can explain most of the paleoenvironmental observations in SE Australia at the LGM by invoking an enhanced high pressure cell over the modern SE mainland while westerly flow continued to dominate in Tasmania. At the true LGM westerly penetration of the SE mainland was reduced but east coast systems were either unaffected or enhanced.

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases.more » Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.« less

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2016-02-04

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases.more » Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.« less

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Climate sensitivity of reproduction in a mast-seeding boreal conifer across its distributional range from lowland to treeline forests.

PubMed

Roland, Carl A; Schmidt, Joshua H; Johnstone, Jill F

2014-03-01

Mast-seeding conifers such as Picea glauca exhibit synchronous production of large seed crops over wide areas, suggesting climate factors as possible triggers for episodic high seed production. Rapidly changing climatic conditions may thus alter the tempo and spatial pattern of masting of dominant species with potentially far-reaching ecological consequences. Understanding the future reproductive dynamics of ecosystems including boreal forests, which may be dominated by mast-seeding species, requires identifying the specific cues that drive variation in reproductive output across landscape gradients and among years. Here we used annual data collected at three sites spanning an elevation gradient in interior Alaska, USA between 1986 and 2011 to produce the first quantitative models for climate controls over both seedfall and seed viability in P. glauca, a dominant boreal conifer. We identified positive associations between seedfall and increased summer precipitation and decreased summer warmth in all years except for the year prior to seedfall. Seed viability showed a contrasting response, with positive correlations to summer warmth in all years analyzed except for one, and an especially positive response to warm and wet conditions in the seedfall year. Finally, we found substantial reductions in reproductive potential of P. glauca at high elevation due to significantly reduced seed viability there. Our results indicate that major variation in the reproductive potential of this species may occur in different landscape positions in response to warming, with decreasing reproductive success in areas prone to drought stress contrasted with increasing success in higher elevation areas currently limited by cool summer temperatures.

Building and environmental factors that influence bacterial and fungal loading on air conditioning cooling coils.

PubMed

Bakker, A; Siegel, J A; Mendell, M J; Peccia, J

2018-05-30

We investigated bacterial and fungal concentrations on cooling coils of commercial AC units and quantified associations between microbial loads and AC unit or building operational parameters. A field campaign was conducted to sample 25 AC units in the humid, subtropical climate of Southern CT, USA and 15 AC units in the hot-summer Mediterranean climate of Sacramento, CA, USA. Median concentrations (with interquartile range) of bacteria and fungi on the cooling coils were 1.2 × 10 7 (5.1 × 10 6 -3.9 × 10 7 ) cells/m 2 and 7.6 × 10 5 (5.6 × 10 4 -4.4 × 10 6 ) spore equivalents (SE)/m 2 , respectively. Concentrations varied among units with median unit concentrations ranging three orders of magnitude for bacteria and seven orders of magnitude for fungi. Controlled comparisons and multivariable regressions indicate that dominant factors associated with AC coil loading include the nominal efficiency of upstream filters (P = .008 for bacteria and P < .001 for fungi) and coil moisture, which was reflected in fungal loading differences between top and bottom halves of the AC coils in Southern CT (P = .05) and the dew points of the two climates considered (P = .04). Environmental and building characteristics explained 42% (P < .001) of bacterial concentration variability and 66% (P < .001) of fungal concentration variability among samples. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Low-energy Spectra of Gamma-Ray Bursts from Cooling Electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Jin-Jun; Huang, Yong-Feng; Wu, Xue-Feng; Zhang, Bing; Zong, Hong-Shi

2018-01-01

The low-energy spectra of gamma-ray bursts’ (GRBs) prompt emission are closely related to the energy distribution of electrons, which is further regulated by their cooling processes. We develop a numerical code to calculate the evolution of the electron distribution with given initial parameters, in which three cooling processes (i.e., adiabatic, synchrotron, and inverse Compton cooling) and the effect of a decaying magnetic field are coherently considered. A sequence of results is presented by exploring the plausible parameter space for both the fireball and the Poynting flux–dominated regime. Different cooling patterns for the electrons can be identified, and they are featured by a specific dominant cooling mechanism. Our results show that the hardening of the low-energy spectra can be attributed to the dominance of synchrotron self-Compton cooling within the internal shock model or to decaying synchrotron cooling within the Poynting flux–dominated jet scenario. These two mechanisms can be distinguished by observing the hard low-energy spectra of isolated short pulses in some GRBs. The dominance of adiabatic cooling can also lead to hard low-energy spectra when the ejecta is moving at an extreme relativistic speed. The information from the time-resolved low-energy spectra can help to probe the physical characteristics of the GRB ejecta via our numerical results.

500-year climate cycles stacking of recent centennial warming documented in an East Asian pollen record

PubMed Central

Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Chu, Guoqiang; Wu, Naiqin; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Can; Mao, Limi

2014-01-01

Here we presented a high-resolution 5350-year pollen record from a maar annually laminated lake in East Asia (EA). Pollen record reflected the dynamics of vertical vegetation zones and temperature change. Spectral analysis on pollen percentages/concentrations of Pinus and Quercus, and a temperature proxy, revealed ~500-year quasi-periodic cold-warm fluctuations during the past 5350 years. This ~500-year cyclic climate change occurred in EA during the mid-late Holocene and even the last 150 years dominated by anthropogenic forcing. It was almost in phase with a ~500-year periodic change in solar activity and Greenland temperature change, suggesting that ~500-year small variations in solar output played a prominent role in the mid-late Holocene climate dynamics in EA, linked to high latitude climate system. Its last warm phase might terminate in the next several decades to enter another ~250-year cool phase, and thus this future centennial cyclic temperature minimum could partially slow down man-made global warming. PMID:24402348

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

2016-03-01

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6-9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Revisiting the climate impacts of cool roofs around the globe using an Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George

2016-08-01

Solar reflective ‘cool roofs’ absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11 ± 0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14 ± 0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Revisiting the Climate Impacts of Cool Roofs around the Globe Using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Zhang, K.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Solar reflective "cool roofs" absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2015-04-01

Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.

Paleoclimatic insights from mapping the global distribution of non-glacial cryogenic landforms in sub-humid montane environments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slee, Adrian; Shulmeister, James

2015-04-01

Much of the 'periglacial' literature is based on landforms and observations from either high mountains or continental environments dominated by strong winter cooling and/or permafrost conditions. Cryogenic conditions occur in many other settings and some of the most widespread are montane landscapes in mid- to low latitudes. In Australia observations of 'periglacial' landforms have traditionally been limited to higher elevation regions of the Australian Alps and central Tasmania. However, the distribution of relict cryogenic landforms is much wider and extends well into sub-tropical latitudes along the eastern highlands of Australia. Here we map the distribution of relict block deposits (block streams and block fields) of known cryogenic origin so as to delineate the limits of 'periglacial' climatic conditions during cold phases in the Late Quaternary. The mapping is based on image analyses supported by extensive and intensive ground truthing. Three distinct regimes are recognised - a high elevation winter wet regime (Mt Kosciuszko style); a temperate maritime westerly regime (Tasmania style) and, unexpectedly, an east coast (sub-tropical) regime (New England style). We utilise bio-climatic modelling to derive modern climate parameters from the distribution of the block deposits so as to map regions affected by cryogenic conditions in late Quaternary cold periods. We assumed that relative changes in mean cooling and precipitation would be shared by other mid-latitude climate locales worldwide and predicted the likely distribution of block deposits in these areas. A literature review confirms the presence of 'periglacial' style block deposits in the predicted regions, including part of the Iberian Peninsula, the Atlas and Drakensburg Mountains of Africa, the Mediterranean island of Sardinia, the higher volcanoes of Mexico and parts of China, all of which have mean annual precipitation similar to the New England area. However, we also note that many of these areas have winter wet (Mediterranean) climates and when seasonality of precipitation is included, winter dry New England becomes an anomaly. We conclude that in addition to significant cooling, winter moisture balance was more positive, in northern New South Wales during cooler climate periods.

Molluscan and Foraminiferan Paleoecological Reconstructions of Extreme Post-Glacial Seafloor Environments of the California Borderland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffitt, S. E.; Hill, T. M.; Kroeker, K.; Roopnarine, P. D.; Kennett, J.

2014-12-01

We have reconstructed paleoecological and climatic change in a Late Quaternary (16.1-3.4 ka) sediment core from the California margin (418 meters below sea level) of Santa Barbara Basin using quantitative analyses of Molluscan and Foraminiferan microfossils. This archive represents the first record of marine metazoan community ecology, and a comparison to a well-established biotic proxy (Foraminifera), through the climatic and oceanographic events of the most recent deglaciation. The high-resolution seafloor archive reveals strong coupling between orbital and millennial climatic episodes and the structure of shallow ocean ecosystems. Changes in the density and diversity of molluscs and foraminifera exhibit clear associations with climatic events that mark the deglacial episode, including rapid expansions and contractions of the Oxygen Minimum Zone and development of chemosynthetic bacterial mat communities. Molluscans occur discontinuously in only 28% of the sediment sequence, whereas foraminifera occur throughout. Multivariate statistical analyses of the community ecology assist with the interpretations of the multi-species paleoecological data and of processes that caused the variability. A surprising dominance of molluscan extremophiles (sulfidic Astrys permodesta and hypoxic Lucinoma aequizonatum) during cool, well oxygenated intervals reveals how such forms can thrive during inferred brief ephemeral extreme events. Hydrographic variability and bottom water flow, as well as the growth of benthic bacterial communities, determine where such extremophile communities dominate.

Observations of Infrared Radiative Cooling in the Thermosphere on Daily to Multiyear Timescales from the TIMED/SABER Instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Martin G.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marshall, B. Thomas; Martin-Torres, F. Javier; Mertens, Christopher J.; Russell, James M., III; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Lopez-Puertas, Manuel; Picard, Richard; Winick, Jeremy;

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

PubMed

Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

2016-03-01

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-03-31

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies.

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-01-01

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies. PMID:25824529

Morphotectonic evolution of the central Kenya rift flanks: Implications for late Cenozoic environmental change in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiegel, Cornelia; Kohn, Barry P.; Belton, David X.; Gleadow, Andrew J. W.

2007-05-01

The Kenya rift valley is the classic example of an active continental rift zone. We report the rift flank cooling history based on a combination of previous apatite fission track (AFT) and new (U-Th)/He (AHe) data. Our results corroborate the Late Cretaceous rapid cooling episode of continent-wide significance revealed previously by AFT dating. Post-Cretaceous cooling of the eastern rift flank was slow with net cooling of <20 °C through much of the Cenozoic. We interpret this cooling style in terms of the absence of significant relief. Samples from the western rift flank and from low elevations of the eastern rift flank reveal a late Neogene cooling episode associated with net cooling of ˜38 °C, indicating that this flank was eroded to a deeper level than that to the east. The late Neogene cooling episode is interpreted as the time of uplift and shaping of the present-day relief of the graben shoulders, which attain elevations of >3400 m in central Kenya. This timing also largely coincides with the uplift of the Western Rift flanks in Uganda and Congo and with the change toward drier conditions and grassland-dominated vegetation in East Africa. We propose that the regional morphotectonic evolution of the Kenyan rift flanks contributed to late Cenozoic environmental change in East Africa, thus superimposing a pronounced local effect on global climate change at that time.

Contrasting growth responses of dominant peatland plants to warming and vegetation composition.

PubMed

Walker, Tom N; Ward, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J; Bardgett, Richard D

2015-05-01

There is growing recognition that changes in vegetation composition can strongly influence peatland carbon cycling, with potential feedbacks to future climate. Nevertheless, despite accelerated climate and vegetation change in this ecosystem, the growth responses of peatland plant species to combined warming and vegetation change are unknown. Here, we used a field warming and vegetation removal experiment to test the hypothesis that dominant species from the three plant functional types present (dwarf-shrubs: Calluna vulgaris; graminoids: Eriophorum vaginatum; bryophytes: Sphagnum capillifolium) contrast in their growth responses to warming and the presence or absence of other plant functional types. Warming was accomplished using open top chambers, which raised air temperature by approximately 0.35 °C, and we measured air and soil microclimate as potential mechanisms through which both experimental factors could influence growth. We found that only Calluna growth increased with experimental warming (by 20%), whereas the presence of dwarf-shrubs and bryophytes increased growth of Sphagnum (46%) and Eriophorum (20%), respectively. Sphagnum growth was also negatively related to soil temperature, which was lower when dwarf-shrubs were present. Dwarf-shrubs may therefore promote Sphagnum growth by cooling the peat surface. Conversely, the effect of bryophyte presence on Eriophorum growth was not related to any change in microclimate, suggesting other factors play a role. In conclusion, our findings reveal contrasting abiotic and biotic controls over dominant peatland plant growth, suggesting that community composition and carbon cycling could be modified by simultaneous climate and vegetation change.

Late Quaternary dynamics of forest vegetation on northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacourse, Terri

2005-01-01

Pollen analysis of radiocarbon-dated lake sediment from northern Vancouver Island, southwest British Columbia reveals regional changes in forest vegetation over the last 12,200 14C yr (14,900 cal yr). Between at least 12,200 and 11,700 14C yr BP (14,900-13,930 cal yr BP), open woodlands were dominated by Pinus contorta, Alnus crispa, and various ferns. As P. contorta decreased in abundance, Alnus rubra and more shade-tolerant conifers (i.e., Picea and Tsuga mertensiana) increased. Increases in T. mertensiana, P. contorta, and A. crispa pollen accumulation rates (PARs) between 10,600 and 10,400 14C yr BP (11,660-11,480 cal yr BP) reflect a cool and moist climate during the Younger Dryas chronozone. Orbitally induced warming around 10,000 14C yr BP (11,090 cal yr BP) allowed the northward extension of Pseudotsuga menziesii, although Picea, Tsuga heterophylla, and A. rubra dominated early Holocene forests. By 7500 14C yr BP (8215 cal yr BP), shade-tolerant T. heterophylla was the dominant forest tree. Cupressaceae ( Thuja plicata and Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) was present by 7500 14C yr BP but reached its maximum after 3500 14C yr BP (3600 cal yr BP), when a cooler and wetter regional climate facilitated the development of temperate rainforest. The highest rates of vegetation change are associated with Lateglacial climate change and species with rapid growth rates and short life spans.

The changing role of fire in conifer-dominated temperate rainforest through the last 14,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, M.-S.; Bowman, D. M. J. S.; Whitlock, C.; Mariani, M.; Stahle, L.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and vegetation dynamics are often tightly coupled through time. Here, we use a 14 kyr sedimentary charcoal and pollen record from Lake Osborne, Tasmania, Australia, to explore how this relationship changes under varying climatic regimes within a temperate rainforest ecosystem. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a significant relationship between fire and vegetation change throughout the Holocene at our site. Our data indicates an initial resilience of the rainforest system to fire under a stable cool and humid climate regime between ca. 12-6 ka. In contrast, fires that occurred after 6 ka, under an increasingly variable climate regime wrought by the onset of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), resulted in a series of changes within the local rainforest vegetation that culminated in the replacement of rainforest by fire-promoted Eucalypt forest. We suggest that an increasingly variable ENSO-influenced climate regime inhibited rainforest recovery from fire because of slower growth, reduced fecundity and increased fire frequency, thus contributing to the eventual collapse of the rainforest system.

Effect of ice massage on lower extremity functional performance and weight discrimination ability in collegiate footballers.

PubMed

Sharma, Geeta; Noohu, Majumi Mohamad

2014-09-01

Cryotherapy, in the form of ice massge is used to reduce inflammation after acute musculoskeletal injury or trauma. The potential negative effects of ice massage on proprioception are unknown, despite equivocal evidence supporting its effectiveness. The purpose of the study was to test the influence of cooling on weight discrimination ability and hence the performance in footballers. The study was of same subject experimental design (pretest-posttest design). Thirty male collegiate football players, whose mean age was 21.07 years, participated in the study. The participants were assessed for two functional performance tests, single leg hop test and crossed over hop test and weight discrimination ability before and after ice massage for 5 minutes on hamstrings muscle tendon. Pre cooling scores of Single Leg Hop Test of the dominant leg in the subjects was 166.65 (± 10.16) cm and post cooling scores of the dominant leg was 167.25 (± 11.77) cm. Pre cooling scores of Crossed Over Hop Test of the dominant leg in the subjects was 174.14 (± 8.60) cm and post cooling scores of the dominant leg was 174.45 (± 9.28) cm. Pre cooling scores of Weight Discrimination Differential Threshold of the dominant leg in the subjects was 1.625 ± 1.179 kg compared with post cooling scores of the dominant leg 1.85 (± 1.91) kg. Pre cooling scores of single leg hop and crossed over hop test of the dominant leg in the subjects compared with post cooling scores of the dominant leg showed no significant differences and it was also noted that the weight discrimination ability (weight discrimination differential threshold) didn't show any significant difference. All the values are reported as mean ± SD. This study provides additional evidence that proprioceptive acuity in the hamstring muscles (biceps femoris) remains largely unaffected after ice application to the hamstrings tendon (biceps femoris).

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Cool Science: Using Children's Art to Communicate Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.

2013-12-01

Cool Science is a K-12 Climate Change Science Art Competition. Working with teachers, parents, and students, the project aims to identify outstanding works of art by students about climate change and display the art throughout public mass transit. Cool Science has three distinct goals: 1) provide a convenient means for art and science teachers to incorporate climate change into their curriculum, 2) support teacher/student learning about climate change science, and 3) foster informal learning about climate change among people riding mass transit. By efficiently connecting formal and informal learning with one project, Cool Science is an innovative project that expands the way we engage and evaluate students. Using children's artwork to communicate complex scientific issues such as climate change is a powerful learning experience for the artist, teacher, and audience. Last year, Cool Science received nearly 600 entries from students representing 36 teachers from 32 school districts. Six winning entries went on public display with one highlighted each month from January through June. In addition, there were 6 Runner Ups and 12 Honorable Mentions. For the winning students, it is an unforgettable experience to see a nine-foot version of their artwork traveling around the streets on the side of a bus!

Global radiative adjustment after a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drijfhout, Sybren S.

2015-10-01

The transient climate response to a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is analysed from the difference between two ensembles of climate model simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM, one with hosing and the other without hosing. The primary effect of the collapse is to redistribute heat over the two hemispheres. However, Northern Hemisphere sea ice increase in response to the AMOC collapse induces a hemisphere-wide cooling, amplified by atmospheric feedbacks, in particular water vapour. The Southern Hemisphere warming is governed by slower processes. After 25 years the global cooling peaks. Thereafter, the response is characterised by a gradual readjustment of global mean temperature. During the AMOC collapse a downward radiation anomaly arises at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), heating the earth's surface. The net downward radiation anomaly at TOA arises from reduced longwave emission by the atmosphere, overcompensating the increased net upward anomalies in shortwave and longwave radiation at the surface. This radiation anomaly is associated with net ocean heat uptake: cooling of the overlying atmosphere results from reduced ocean heat release through the increase of sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The change in energy flow arises from the reduction in latent and sensible heat flux, which dominate the surface radiation budget. Similar experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity reveal a stronger shortwave response that acts to reduce the net downward radiation anomaly at TOA. The net shortwave and longwave radiation anomalies at TOA always decrease during the first 100 years after the AMOC collapse, but in the intermediate complexity model this is associated with a sign change after 90 years when the net radiation anomaly at TOA becomes upward, accompanied by net ocean heat loss. After several hundred years the longwave and shortwave anomalies increase again, while the net residual at TOA remains small. This radiative adjustment is associated with the transition to a colder climate.

Fluctuations in the East Asian monsoon recorded by pollen assemblages in sediments from the Japan Sea off the southwestern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, from 4.3 Ma to the present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Sawada, Ken; Song, Lu; Furota, Satoshi

2018-04-01

We reconstructed fluctuations in the East Asian monsoon and vegetation in the Japan Sea region since the middle Pliocene based on pollen data obtained from sediments collected by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program off the southwestern coast of northern Japan. Taxodiaceae conifers Metasequoia and Cryptomeria and Sciadopityacere conifer Sciadopitys are excellent indicators of a humid climate during the monsoon. The pollen temperature index (Tp) can be used as a proxy for relative air temperature. Based on changes in vegetation and reconstructed climate over a period of 4.3 Ma, we classified the sediment sequence into six pollen zones. From 4.3 to 3.8 Ma (Zone 1), the climate fluctuated between cool/moist and warm/moist climatic conditions. Vegetation changed between warm temperate mixed forest and cool temperate conifer forest. The Neogene type tree Carya recovered under a warm/moist climate. The period from 3.8 to 2.5 Ma (Zone 2) was characterized by increased Metasequoia pollen concentration. Warm temperate mixed forest vegetation developed under a cool/moist climate. The period from 2.5 to 2.2 Ma (Zone 3) was characterized by an abrupt increase in Metasequoia and/or Cryptomeria pollen and a decrease in warm broadleaf tree pollen, indicating a cool/humid climate. The Zone 4 period (2.2-1.7 Ma) was characterized by a decrease in Metasequoia and/or Cryptomeria pollen and an increase in cool temperate conifer Picea and Tsuga pollen, indicating a cool/moist climate. The period from 1.7 to 0.3 Ma (Zone 5) was characterized by orbital-scale climate fluctuations. Cycles of abrupt increases and decreases in Cryptomeria and Picea pollen and in Tp values indicated changes between warm/humid and cold/dry climates. The alpine fern Selaginella selaginoides appeared as of 1.6 Ma. Vegetation alternated among warm mixed, cool mixed, and cool temperate conifer forests. Zone 6 (0.3 Ma to present) was characterized by a decrease in Cryptomeria pollen. The warm temperate broadleaf forest and cool temperate conifer forest developed alternately under warm/moist and cold/dry climate. Zone 2 corresponded to a weak Tsushima Current breaking through the Tsushima Strait, and the beginning of orbital-scale climatic changes at 1.7 Ma during Zone 5 corresponded to the strong inflow of the Tsushima Current into the Japan Sea during interglacial periods (Gallagher et al., 2015).

Unraveling the heat island effect observed in urban groundwater bodies - Definition of a potential natural state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epting, Jannis; Huggenberger, Peter

2013-09-01

A superposition of several thermal processes leads to an elevation of groundwater temperatures of up to 9 °C above the natural state in the city of Basel, Switzerland. The urban thermal groundwater regime is influenced by: (1) urbanization and annual heating periods; (2) thermal groundwater use; (3) seasonal trends; (4) river-groundwater interaction; and (5) climate change and consequences thereof. The combination of short- and long-term data analysis, including conventional and high-resolution multilevel groundwater temperature monitoring, as well as 3D numerical groundwater flow and heat-transport modeling allowed quantifying the thermal influences on the investigated urban groundwater body. Results facilitate to describe the “present state” of the urban thermal groundwater regime and to derive a “potential natural state” of the investigated groundwater body. The study originated from a request of the executive council to provide a basis for cost estimates of infrastructure adaptation measures necessary to mitigate the impact of climate change. It is shown that the principal trigger for the observed thermal development is not climate change but that local and regional anthropogenic factors are dominating. Although in urban areas, groundwater is increasingly used for cooling purposes; the geothermal potential, resulting from elevated groundwater temperatures, is generally not exploited. The presented approach provides a basis for the setup of combined and thermally balanced heating and cooling systems.

Impacts of reactive nitrogen on climate change in China.

PubMed

Shi, Yalan; Cui, Shenghui; Ju, Xiaotang; Cai, Zucong; Zhu, Yong-Guan

2015-01-29

China is mobilizing the largest anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the world due to agricultural, industrial and urban development. However, the climate effects related to Nr in China remain largely unclear. Here we comprehensively estimate that the net climate effects of Nr are -100 ± 414 and 322 ± 163 Tg CO₂e on a GTP₂₀ and a GTP₁₀₀ basis, respectively. Agriculture contributes to warming at 187 ± 108 and 186 ± 56 Tg CO₂e on a 20-y and 100-y basis, respectively, dominated by long-lived nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertilized soils. On a 20-y basis, industry contributes to cooling at -287 ± 306 Tg CO₂e, largely owing to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) altering tropospheric ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations. However, these effects are short-lived. The effect of industry converts to warming at 136 ± 107 Tg CO₂e on a 100-y basis, mainly as a result of the reduced carbon (C) sink from the NOx-induced ozone effect on plant damage. On balance, the warming effects of gaseous Nr are partly offset by the cooling effects of N-induced carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. The large mitigation potentials through reductions in agricultural N₂O and industrial NOx will accompany by a certain mitigation pressure from limited N-induced C sequestration in the future.

Analysis of Radiant Cooling System Configurations Integrated with Cooling Tower for Different Indian Climatic Zones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S; Jain, Robin

Radiant cooling system has proven to be a low energy consumption system for building cooling needs. This study describes the use of cooling tower in radiant cooling system to improve the overall system efficiency. A comprehensive simulation feasibility study of the application of cooling tower in radiant cooling system was performed for the fifteen cities in different climatic zones of India. It was found that in summer, the wet bulb temperature (WBT) of the different climatic zones except warm-humid is suitable for the integration of cooling tower with radiant cooling system. In these climates, cooling tower can provide on averagemore » 24 C to 27 C water In order to achieve the energy saving potential, three different configurations of radiant cooling system have been compared in terms of energy consumption. The different configurations of the radiant cooling system integrated with cooling tower are: (1) provide chilled water to the floor, wall and ceiling mounted tubular installation. (2) provide chilled water to the wall and ceiling mounted tabular installation. In this arrangement a separate chiller has also been used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor mounted tubular installation. (3) provide chilled water to the wall mounted tabular installation and a separate chiller is used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor and ceiling mounted tabular installation. A dedicated outdoor air system is also coupled for dehumidification and ventilation in all three configurations. A conventional all-air system was simulated as a baseline to compare these configurations for assessing the energy saving potential.« less

Estimating the potential for industrial waste heat reutilization in urban district energy systems: method development and implementation in two Chinese provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Kangkang; Fang, Andrew; Yu, Huajun; Li, Yang; Shi, Lei; Wang, Yangjun; Wang, Shuxiao; Ramaswami, Anu

2017-12-01

Utilizing low-grade waste heat from industries to heat and cool homes and businesses through fourth generation district energy systems (DES) is a novel strategy to reduce energy use. This paper develops a generalizable methodology to estimate the energy saving potential for heating/cooling in 20 cities in two Chinese provinces, representing cold winter and hot summer regions respectively. We also conduct a life-cycle analysis of the new infrastructure required for energy exchange in DES. Results show that heating and cooling energy use reduction from this waste heat exchange strategy varies widely based on the mix of industrial, residential and commercial activities, and climate conditions in cities. Low-grade heat is found to be the dominant component of waste heat released by industries, which can be reused for both district heating and cooling in fourth generation DES, yielding energy use reductions from 12%-91% (average of 58%) for heating and 24%-100% (average of 73%) for cooling energy use in the different cities based on annual exchange potential. Incorporating seasonality and multiple energy exchange pathways resulted in energy savings reductions from 0%-87%. The life-cycle impact of added infrastructure was small (<3% for heating) and 1.9% ~ 6.5% (cooling) of the carbon emissions from fuel use in current heating or cooling systems, indicating net carbon savings. This generalizable approach to delineate waste heat potential can help determine suitable cities for the widespread application of industrial waste heat re-utilization.

Short-term climate changes in the Holsteinian Interglacial - EGU2012-132

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitychoruk, J.; Bińka, K.; Ruppert, H.; Tudryn, A.

2012-04-01

Oxygen and carbon stable isotopes from fossil lake sediments of the Holsteinian age (eastern Poland) give evidence for the abrupt climate shifts in this interglacial that coincide with the changes in vegetation inferred from palaeobotanical data. Especially changes of the stable isotope ratios as well as decrease in the carbonate content in the deposits and increase in silicate redeposited from the area around the lake are synchronous with the short-term climatic deteriorations within the interglacial pollen flora. Two distinct climate shifts are recorded in the Holsteinian. The first one is marked by the very characteristic pine-birch cold phase after the yew (Taxus) domination that is reported from numerous pollen diagrams from Central Europe. This distinct cooling resembles a phenomenon known as 8.2 ka event in the Holocene, when waters of the Agassiz Lake in North America drained into the Atlantic Ocean (Koutsodendris et al. 2010). Enormous volumes of freshwater from melting of the Laurentian ice-sheet caused disturbances in the Gulf Stream and as a result some decrease in regional temperatures. The second distinct cooling of a lower rank took place within the younger part of the climatic optimum of the Holsteinian. It is relatively less known, because most often pollen records lack sufficient temporal resolution needed to identify this event. A well documented cooling in the Holsteinian deposits from Dethlingen, northern Germany (Koutsodendris et al. 2010) and from the Ossówka, eastern Poland (Nitychoruk et al. 2005) are exceptional. In the sequence from Dethlingen, a distinct increase in the percentage of pioneer trees is accompanied by a lower content of temperate taxa. At Ossówka, the shift of climate is noted as the rise of ratio of oxygen and carbon isotopes. According to Nitychoruk (2000) the cold event is coincident with volcanic eruptions evidenced by volcanic ash found in the lake deposits at that time. Literature Koutsodendris, A., Müller, U.C., Pross, J., Brauer, A., Kotthoff, U., Lotter, A.F. 2010. Vegetation dynamics and climate variability during the Holsteinian interglacial based on a pollen record from Dethlingen (northern Germany). Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 3298-3307. Nitychoruk, J. 2000. Climate reconstruction from stable-isotope composition of the Mazovian Interglacial (Holsteinian) lake sediments in eastern Poland. Acta Geologica Polonica, 50, 247-294. Nitychoruk, J., Bińka, K., Hoefs, J., Ruppert, H. & Schneider, J. 2005. Climate reconstruction for the Holsteinian Interglacial in Eastern Poland and its comparison with isotopic data from Marine Isotope Stage 11. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, 631-644.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

Indo-Pacific hydroclimate over the past millennium and links with global climate variabilty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, M. L.; Drysdale, R.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Hua, Q.; Johnson, K. R.; Gagan, M. K.; Cole, J. E.; Cook, B. I.; Zhao, J. X.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Hantoro, W. S.

2016-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) are the dominant modes of hydroclimate variability in the tropical Pacific and have far-reaching impacts on Earth's climate. Experiments combining instrumental records with climate-model simulations have highlighted the dominant role of the Pacific Walker circulation in shaping recent trends in global temperatures (Kosaka and Xie, 2013, 2016). However, the paucity of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records of deep atmospheric convection over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) precludes a comprehensive assessment as to role of the tropical Pacific in modulating radiative-forced shifts in global temperature on multidecadal to centennial timescales. Here we present a suite of new high-resolution oxygen-isotope records from Indo-Pacific speleothems, which, based on modern rainfall and cave drip-water monitoring studies, along with trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) analyses, are interpreted to reflect changes in Australasian monsoon variability during the Common Era (C.E.). Our results reveal a protracted decline in southern Indonesian monsoon rainfall between 1000-1400 C.E. but stronger between 1500-1900 C.E. These centennial-scale patterns over southern Indonesia are consistent with other proxy records from the region but anti-phased with records from India and China, supporting the paradigm that Northern Hemisphere cooling increased the interhemispheric thermal gradient, displacing the Australasian ITCZ southward. However, our findings are also compatible with a recent synthesis of paleohydrologic records for the Australasian monsoon region, which, collectively, suggest that rather than moving southward during the LIA, the latitudinal range of monsoon-ITCZ migration probably contracted equatorward (Yan et al., 2015). This proposed LIA ITCZ contraction likely occurred in parallel with a strengthening of the Walker circulation (as indicated through comparison with our hydroclimate records from the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and western Indian Ocean, and eastern Australia), and thus, the tropical Pacific may have played a critical role in amplifying the radiative-forced global cooling already underway.

Dominant covarying climate signals in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice influence during last three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrone, Dario; Fusco, Giannetta; Simmonds, Ian; Aulicino, Giuseppe; Budillon, Giorgio

2017-04-01

A composite dataset (comprising geopotential height, sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface winds, precipitation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, latent plus sensible heat fluxes , and sea ice concentration) has been investigated with the aim of revealing the dominant timescales of variability from 1982 to 2013. Three covarying climate signals associated with variations in the sea ice distribution around Antarctica have been detected through the application of the Multiple-Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD). Features of the established patterns of variation over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics have been identified in each of these three climate signals in the form of coupled or individual oscillations. The climate patterns considered here are the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Pacific-South America (PSA) teleconnection, the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Zonal Wavenumber-3 (ZW3) mode. It is shown that most of the sea ice temporal variance is concentrated at the quasi-triennial scale resulting from the constructive superposition of the PSA and ZW3 patterns. In addition the combination of the SAM and SAO patterns is found to promote the interannual sea ice variations underlying a general change in the Southern Ocean atmospheric and oceanic circulations. These two modes of variability are also found consistent with the occurrence of the SAM+/PSA- or SAM-/PSA+ combinations, which could have favored the cooling of the sub-Antarctic and important changes in the Antarctic sea ice distribution since 2000.

Plants for passive cooling. A preliminary investigation of the use of plants for passive cooling in temperate humid climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spirn, A W; Santos, A N; Johnson, D A

1981-04-01

The potential of vegetation for cooling small, detached residential and commercial structures in temperate, humid climates is discussed. The results of the research are documented, a critical review of the literature is given, and a brief review of energy transfer processes is presented. A checklist of design objectives for passive cooling, a demonstration of design applications, and a palette of selected plant species suitable for passive cooling are included.

Climate Change Impacts on Rivers and Implications for Electricity Generation in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Corsi, F.; Cohen, S. M.; Tidwell, V. C.; Newmark, R. L.; Prousevitch, A.

2015-12-01

The contemporary power sector in the United States is heavily reliant on water resources to provide cooling water for thermoelectric generation. Efficient thermoelectric plant operations require large volumes of water at sufficiently cool temperatures for their cooling process. The total amount of water that is withdrawn or consumed for cooling and any potential declines in efficiencies are determined by the sector's fuel mix and cooling technologies. As such, the impact of climate change, and the extent of impact, on the power sector is shaped by the choice of electricity generation technologies that will be built over the coming decades. In this study, we model potential changes in river discharge and temperature in the contiguous US under a set of climate scenarios to year 2050 using the Water Balance Model-Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M). Together, these models quantify, in high-resolution (3-min), river temperatures, discharge and power plant efficiency losses associated with changes in available cooling water that incorporates climate, hydrology, river network dynamics and multi-plant impacts, on both single power plant and regional scales. Results are used to assess the aptness and vulnerability of contemporary and alternative electricity generation pathways to changes in climate and water availability for cooling purposes, and the concomitant impacts on power plant operating efficiencies. We assess the potential impacts by comparing six regions (Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest as in the National Climate Assessment (2014)) across the US. These experiments allow us to assess tradeoffs among electricity-water-climate to provide useful insight for decision-makers managing regional power production and aquatic environments.

Late Eocene to middle Miocene (33 to 13 million years ago) vegetation and climate development on the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain (IODP Expedition 313, Site M0027)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, U.; Greenwood, D. R.; McCarthy, F. M. G.; Müller-Navarra, K.; Prader, S.; Hesselbo, S. P.

2014-08-01

We investigated the palynology of sediment cores from Site M0027 of IODP (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program) Expedition 313 on the New Jersey shallow shelf to examine vegetation and climate dynamics on the east coast of North America between 33 and 13 million years ago and to assess the impact of over-regional climate events on the region. Palynological results are complemented with pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions. Our results indicate that the hinterland vegetation of the New Jersey shelf was characterized by oak-hickory forests in the lowlands and conifer-dominated vegetation in the highlands from the early Oligocene to the middle Miocene. The Oligocene witnessed several expansions of conifer forest, probably related to cooling events. The pollen-based climate data imply an increase in annual temperatures from ∼11.5 °C to more than 16 °C during the Oligocene. The Mi-1 cooling event at the onset of the Miocene is reflected by an expansion of conifers and mean annual temperature decrease of ∼4 °C, from ∼16 °C to ∼12 °C around 23 million years before present. Relatively low annual temperatures are also recorded for several samples during an interval around ∼20 million years before present, which may reflect the Mi-1a and the Mi-1aa cooling events. Generally, the Miocene ecosystem and climate conditions were very similar to those of the Oligocene. Miocene grasslands, as known from other areas in the USA during that time period, are not evident for the hinterland of the New Jersey shelf, possibly reflecting moisture from the proto-Gulf Stream. The palaeovegetation data reveal stable conditions during the mid-Miocene climatic optimum at ∼15 million years before present, with only a minor increase in deciduous-evergreen mixed forest taxa and a decrease in swamp forest taxa. Pollen-based annual temperature reconstructions show average annual temperatures of ∼14 °C during the mid-Miocene climatic optimum, ∼2 °C higher than today, but ∼1.5 °C lower than preceding and following phases of the Miocene. We conclude that vegetation and regional climate in the hinterland of the New Jersey shelf did not react as sensitively to Oligocene and Miocene climate changes as other regions in North America or Europe due to the moderating effects of the North Atlantic. An additional explanation for the relatively low regional temperatures reconstructed for the mid-Miocene climatic optimum could be an uplift of the Appalachian Mountains during the Miocene, which would also have influenced the catchment area of our pollen record.

Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

PubMed

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2014-08-19

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

Are signals of westerly wind strength and hydroclimate change during the late Holocene preserved in Antarctic peatbanks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stelling, J.; Yu, Z.; Beilman, D. W.; Loisel, J.

2017-12-01

Over the second half of the 20th century the western Antarctic Peninsula experienced a warmer and moister climate, possibly brought by the poleward expansion of the southern westerly wind belt. However, it is not well-known how terrestrial ecosystems on the peninsula have responded to circulation change over the last two millennia. Here we present a paleoecological and geochemical record derived from peatbank deposits on contrasting slopes on Litchfield Island (64°46'S; 64°06'W) to better understand ecosystem response over the late Holocene. Chronology of our three peat cores is constrained by 18 radiocarbon dates. The north-facing peatbank initiated 2700 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP) had a time-weighted accumulation rate of 0.3 mm yr-1 with the interval of lowest growth (<0.03 mm yr-1) from 1300 to 500 cal yr BP. However, the last 500 cal yr BP show increased accumulation rate (>0.6 mm yr-1). The other two peatbanks (southwest and west-facing) initiated after 500 cal yr BP with 1.5 mm yr-1 vertical accumulation rate. We suspect the delayed initiation in southwest or west-facing slopes was caused by cold/cool summer and likely persistent snow cover before 500 cal yr BP. Under the same regional climate, the cool summer, and perhaps more snow, on the north-facing slope causes the slow accumulation rate there at 1300-500 cal yr BP. Furthermore, the results show that carbon accumulation follows a similar pattern with an increased rate (greater than the time-weighted mean 20 g C m-2 yr-1), of up to 110 g C m-2 yr-1 at 1300 cal yr BP, and then decreased accumulation thereafter until 500 cal yr BP. Surprisingly, on peatbanks with different microclimates, there is a common pattern of large-scale species dominance shifts —from less than 10% to greater than >80%—between drier Polytrichum and wetter Chorisodontium. These dominance shifts indicate that despite differing accumulation histories, patterns of external influence can be detected. Warmer and moister climate brought by increasing westerly wind could be responsible for dominance shifts to wetter species, with a reduction in westerly wind resulting in drier species. Our results indicate that peat-based archives have the potential to record responses to climate although, they may be sensitive to regional hydroclimate patterns like increased snowfall.

Electron cooling of a bunched ion beam in a storage ring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, He; Mao, Lijun; Yang, Jiancheng; Xia, Jiawen; Yang, Xiaodong; Li, Jie; Tang, Meitang; Shen, Guodong; Ma, Xiaoming; Wu, Bo; Wang, Geng; Ruan, Shuang; Wang, Kedong; Dong, Ziqiang

2018-02-01

A combination of electron cooling and rf system is an effective method to compress the beam bunch length in storage rings. A simulation code based on multiparticle tracking was developed to calculate the bunched ion beam cooling process, in which the electron cooling, intrabeam scattering (IBS), ion beam space-charge field, transverse and synchrotron motion are considered. Meanwhile, bunched ion beam cooling experiments have been carried out in the main cooling storage ring (CSRm) of the Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou, to investigate the minimum bunch length obtained by the cooling method, and study the dependence of the minimum bunch length on beam and machine parameters. The experiments show comparable results to those from simulation. Based on these simulations and experiments, we established an analytical model to describe the limitation of the bunch length of the cooled ion beam. It is observed that the IBS effect is dominant for low intensity beams, and the space-charge effect is much more important for high intensity beams. Moreover, the particles will not be bunched for much higher intensity beam. The experimental results in CSRm show a good agreement with the analytical model in the IBS dominated regime. The simulation work offers us comparable results to those from the analytical model both in IBS dominated and space-charge dominated regimes.

Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

PubMed

Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J; Hall, Timothy M; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Wing, Allison A

2016-07-15

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2015-05-01

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.

Cool Science: K-12 Climate Change Art Displayed on Buses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. F.; Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Thompson, S. R.

2015-12-01

Cool science is an art contest where K12 students create placards (7" x 22") to educate the public about climate change. Students are prompted to create their artwork in response to questions such as: What is the evidence for climate change? How does climate change impact your local community? What can you do to reduce the impacts of climate change? In each of three years, 500-600 student entrees have been submitted from more than 12 school districts across Massachusetts. A panel of judges including scientists, artists, rapid transit representatives, and educators chooses elementary, middle, and high school winners. Winners (6), runners-up (6), and honorable mentions (12) and their families and teachers are invited to an annual Cool Science Award Ceremony to be recognized and view winning artwork. All winning artwork is posted on the Cool Science website. The winning artwork (2 per grade band) is converted into placards (11" x 28") and posters (2.5' x 12') that are placed on the inside (placards) and outside (posters) of buses. Posters are displayed for one month. So far, Cool Science was implemented in Lowell, MA where over 5000 public viewers see the posters daily on the sides of Lowell Rapid Transit Authority (LRTA) buses, making approximately 1,000,000 impressions per year. Cool Science acts to increase climate literacy in children as well as the public, and as such promotes intergenerational learning. Using art in conjunction with science learning about climate change appears to be effective at engaging not just traditionally high achieving science students, but also those interested in the creative arts. Hearing winners' stories about how they created their artwork and what this contest meant to them supports the idea that Cool Science attracts a wide diversity of students. Parents discuss climate change with their children. Multiple press releases announcing the winners further promotes the awareness of climate change throughout school districts and their communities. Pre- and post-surveys of LRTA riders suggests that public viewers of winning artwork increase their awareness that climate change is happening, that climate change is human caused, and that they want to learn more. Using student voices (artwork) appears to be an effective way to communicate climate change issues to public audiences.

Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachsel, M.; Rehfeld, K.; Telford, R.; Laepple, T.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution.

A ventilation cooling shirt worn during office work in a hot climate: cool or not?

PubMed

Zhao, Mengmeng; Kuklane, Kalev; Lundgren, Karin; Gao, Chuansi; Wang, Faming

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to identify whether a ventilation cooling shirt was effective in reducing heat strain in a hot climate. Eight female volunteers were exposed to heat (38 °C, 45% relative humidity) for 2 h with simulated office work. In the first hour they were in normal summer clothes (total thermal insulation 0.8 clo); in the second hour a ventilation cooling shirt was worn on top. After the shirt was introduced for 1 h, the skin temperatures at the scapula and the chest were significantly reduced (p < 0.05). The mean skin and core temperatures were not reduced. The subjects felt cooler and more comfortable by wearing the shirt, but the cooling effect was most conspicuous only during the initial 10 min. The cooling efficiency of the ventilation shirt was not very effective under the low physical activity in this hot climate.

How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2017-07-01

The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

Measurements of solar and terrestrial heating and cooling rate profiles in Arctic and sub-tropic stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschalk, Matthias; Lauermann, Felix; Ehrlich, André; Siebert, Holger; Wendisch, Manfred

2017-04-01

Stratocumulus covers approximately 20 % (annually averaged) of the Earth's surface and thus strongly influences the atmospheric and surface radiative energy budget resulting in radiative cooling and heating effects. Globally, the solar cooling effect of the widespread sub-tropical stratocumulus dominates. However, in the Arctic the solar cloud albedo effect (cooling) is often smaller than the thermal-infrared greenhouse effect (warming), which is a result of the lower incoming solar radiation and the low cloud base height. Therefore, Arctic stratocumulus mostly warms the atmosphere and surface below the cloud. Additionally, different environmental conditions lead to differences between sub-tropical and Arctic stratocumulus. Broadband pyranometers and pyrgeometers will be used to measure heating and cooling rate profiles in and above stratocumulus. For this purpose two slowly moving platforms are used (helicopter and tethered balloon) in order to consider for the long response times of both broadband radiation sensors. Two new instrument packages are developed for the applied tethered balloon and helicopter platforms, which will be operated within Arctic and sub-tropical stratocumulus, respectively. In June 2017, the balloon will be launched from a sea ice floe north of 80 °N during the Arctic Balloon-borne profiling Experiment (ABEX) as part of (AC)3 (Arctic Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes and Feedback Mechanisms) Transregional Collaborative Research Center. The helicopter will sample sub-tropical stratocumulus over the Azores in July 2017.

Unstable behaviour of an upper ocean-atmosphere coupled model: role of atmospheric radiative processes and oceanic heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen-Solal, E.; Le Treut, H.

We describe the initial bias of the climate simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The atmospheric component is a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model, whereas the ocean component is limited to the upper ocean and includes a mixed layer whose depth is computed by the model. As the full ocean general circulation is not computed by the model, the heat transport within the ocean is prescribed. When modifying the prescribed heat transport we also affect the initial drift of the model. We analyze here one of the experiments where this drift is very strong, in order to study the key processes relating the changes in the ocean transport and the evolution of the model's climate. In this simulation, the ocean surface temperature cools by 1.5°C in 20 y. We can distinguish two different phases. During the first period of 5 y, the sea surface temperatures become cooler, particularly in the intertropical area, but the outgoing longwave radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere increases very quickly, in particular at the end of the period. An off-line version of the model radiative code enables us to decompose this behaviour into different contributions (cloudiness, specific humidity, air and surface temperatures, surface albedo). This partitioning shows that the longwave radiation evolution is due to a decrease of high level cirrus clouds in the intertropical troposphere. The decrease of the cloud cover also leads to a decrease of the planetary albedo and therefore an increase of the net short wave radiation absorbed by the system. But the dominant factor is the strong destabilization by the longwave cooling, which is able to throw the system out of equilibrium. During the remaining of the simulation (second phase), the cooling induced by the destabilization at the top-of-the-atmosphere is transmitted to the surface by various processes of the climate system. Hence, we show that small variations of ocean heat transport can force the model from a stable to an unstable state via atmospheric processes which arise wen the tropics are cooling. Even if possibly overestimated by our GCM, this mechanism may be pertinent to the maintenance of present climatic conditions in the tropics. The simplifications inherent in our model's design allow us to investigate the mechanism in some detail.

Chironomid record of Late Quaternary climatic and environmental changes from two sites in Central Asia (Tuva Republic, Russia)—local, regional or global causes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilyashuk, Boris P.; Ilyashuk, Elena A.

2007-03-01

Sediment cores from two mountain lakes (Lake Grusha at 2413 m a.s.l. and Ak-Khol at 2204 m a.s.l.) situated in the Tuva Republic (southern Siberia, Russia), just north of Mongolia, were studied for chironomid fossils in order to infer post-glacial climatic changes and to investigate responses of the lake ecosystems to these changes. The results show that chironomids are responding both to temperature and to changing lake depth, which is regarded as a sensitive proxy of regional effective moisture. The post-glacial history of this mountain region in Central Asia can be divided into seven successive climatic phases: the progressive warming during the last glacial-interglacial transition (ca 15.8-14.6 cal kyr BP), the warm and moist Bølling-Allerød-like interval (ca 14.6-13.1 cal kyr BP), the cool and dry Younger Dryas-like event (ca 13.1-12.1 cal kyr BP), warmer and wetter conditions during ca 12.1-8.5 cal kyr BP, a warm and dry phase ca 8.5-5.9 cal kyr BP, cold and wet conditions during ca 5.9-1.8 cal kyr BP, as well as cold and dry climate within the last 1800 years. The chironomid records reveal patterns of climatic variability during the Late-glacial and Holocene, which can be correlated with abrupt climatic events in the North Atlantic and the Asian monsoon-dominated regimes. Apparently, the water balance of the studied lakes is controlled by the interrelation between the dominant westerly system and the changing influence of the summer monsoon, as well as the influence of alpine glacier meltwater supply. It is possible that monsoon tracks could have reached the southwest Tuva, resulting in an increase in precipitation at ca 14.6-13.1 and ca 12.1-8.5 cal kyr BP, whereas cyclonic westerlies from the North Atlantic were likely responsible for considerable moisture transport accompanying the global Neoglacial cooling at ca 5.9-1.8 cal kyr BP. These events suggest the changes of the regional pattern of atmospheric circulation, which could be in turn induced by the global climatic shifts. Some discrepancies compared with other reconstructions from Central Asia may be associated with regional (spatial) differences between the changing predominant circulation mechanisms and with local differences in uplift and descent of air masses within the complicated mountain landscape. In this paper, we also discuss the possibilities and perspectives for using chironomids in reconstructions of past temperatures and climate-induced changes in water depth of lakes in Central Asia.

Ecosystem responses during Late Glacial period recorded in the sediments of Lake Łukie (East Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zawiska, Izabela; Słowiński, Michał; Correa-Metrio, Alex; Obremska, Milena; Luoto, Tomi; Nevalainen, Liisa; Woszczyk, Michał; Milecka, Krystyna

2014-05-01

The main objectives of this study was to reconstruct climate impact on the functioning of Lake Łukie and its catchment (Łęczna Włodawa Lake District, East European Plain) during Late Glacial period. In order to reconstruct climatic fluctuations and corresponding ecosystem responses, we analysed lake sediments for pollen, subfossil Cladocera, plant macrofossils and chemical composition of the sediment. Of these, plant macrofossils and Cladocera were used to infer minimum and mean July temperatures and ordination analysis was used to examine biotic community shifts. Multiproxy analyses of late-glacial sediments of Lake Łukie clearly show that the main driver of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems as well as geomorphological processes in the catchment was climate variation. The history of the lake initiated during the Older Dryas. In that period, Łęczna Włodawa Lake District was covered by open habitats dominated by grasses (Poaceae), humid sites were occupied by tundra plant communities with less clubmoss (Selaginella selaginoides), dry sites by dominated by steppe-like vegetation with light-demanding species such as Helianthemum, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, and juniper bushes (Juniperus). Cold climate limited the growth and development of organisms in the lake, Cladocera community species composition was poor, with only few species present there all the time. During this time period, permafrost was still present in the ground limiting infiltration of rainwater and causing high erosion in the catchment area. Surface runoff is confirmed by the presence of sclerotia of Cenococcum geophilum and high terrigenous silica content. The warming of the early Allerød caused a remarkable change in the natural environment of this area. This is in accordance with the temperature rise reconstructed with the use of plant macrofossils though the Cladocera reconstruction did not recorded the rise than. This temperature increase resulted in turnover of vegetation in the catchment of Lake Łukie, pioneer birch-pine forests dominated, later replaced by pine-birch forests. Consequently this limited the erosion. The results of all proxy suggest the water-lever rise in lake Łukie. The Younger Dryas cooling in the region began about 12 630 14C years BP and recorded in significant drop in temperature reconstructed with plant macrofossils and Cladocera. The cooling resulted in a decline of forest communities and development of open habitats with grasses (Poaceae), Artemisia, and Chenopodiaceae), as well as juniper thickets (Juniperus) At the end of the Younger Dryas, plant communities changed, the non-arborescent pollen declined, while pollen of trees (especially Pinus) became more abundant. This change was more abruptly reflected in Cladocera and aquatic pollen results and is probably related to gradual climate warming. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute ICLEA (Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis) funded by the Helmholtz Association, projects UMO-2011/01/B/ST10/07367 and N N306 036436 founded by National Science Center, Poland.

Hourly test reference weather data in the changing climate of Finland for building energy simulations.

PubMed

Jylhä, Kirsti; Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Jokisalo, Juha; Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina; Kalamees, Targo; Mäkelä, Hanna; Hyvönen, Reijo; Drebs, Achim

2015-09-01

Dynamic building energy simulations need hourly weather data as input. The same high temporal resolution is required for assessments of future heating and cooling energy demand. The data presented in this article concern current typical values and estimated future changes in outdoor air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global, diffuse and normal solar radiation components. Simulated annual and seasonal delivered energy consumptions for heating of spaces, heating of ventilation supply air and cooling of spaces in the current and future climatic conditions are also presented for an example house, with district heating and a mechanical space cooling system. We provide details on how the synthetic future weather files were created and utilised as input data for dynamic building energy simulations by the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy program and also for calculations of heating and cooling degree-day sums. The information supplied here is related to the research article titled "Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate" [1].

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18 000 radiocarbon years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marchant, R.; Harrison, S.P.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Markgraf, Vera; Van Boxel, J. H.; Ager, T.; Almeida, L.; Anderson, R.; Baied, C.; Behling, H.; Berrio, J.C.; Burbridge, R.; Bjorck, S.; Byrne, R.; Bush, M.B.; Cleef, A.M.; Duivenvoorden, J.F.; Flenley, J.R.; De Oliveira, P.; Van Geel, B.; Graf, K.J.; Gosling, W.D.; Harbele, S.; Van Der Hammen, T.; Hansen, B.C.S.; Horn, S.P.; Islebe, G.A.; Kuhry, P.; Ledru, M.

2009-01-01

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000±500 and 18 000±1000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation. At 6000±500 14C yr BP 255 samples are analysed from 127 sites. Differences between the modern and the 6000±500 14C yr BP reconstruction are comparatively small. Patterns of change relative to the modern reconstruction are mainly to biomes characteristic of drier climate in the north of the region with a slight more mesic shift in the south. Cool temperate rain forest remains dominant in western South America. In northwestern South America a number of sites record transitions from tropical seasonal forest to tropical dry forest and tropical rain forest to tropical seasonal forest. Sites in Central America also show a change in biome assignment to more mesic vegetation, indicative of greater plant available moisture, e.g. on the Yucat??n peninsula sites record warm evergreen forest, replacing tropical dry forest and warm mixed forest presently recorded. At 18 000±1000 14C yr BP 61 samples from 34 sites record vegetation that reflects a generally cool and dry environment. Cool grass/shrubland prevalent in southeast Brazil, Amazonian sites record tropical dry forest, warm temperate rain forest and tropical seasonal forest. Southernmost South America is dominated by cool grass/shrubland, a single site retains cool temperate rain forest indicating that forest was present at some locations at the LGM. Some sites in Central M??xico and lowland Colombia remain unchanged in their biome assignments, although the affinities that these sites have to different biomes do change between 18 000±1000 14C yr BP and present. The " unresponsive" nature of these sites results from their location and the impact of local edaphic influence.

Seasonality of climate change and oscillations in the Northeast Asia and Northwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V.; Salomatin, A.; Kaplunenko, D.; Krokhin, V.

2003-04-01

The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asian, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST for all months of a year. We use monthly mean data for the 20th century from the NOAA Global History Climatic Network, JMA data base and WMU/COADS World Atlas of Surface Marine Data. Details of climate change/oscillations associated with cooling or warming in different areas and periods of a year are revealed. Wavelet analyses and two methods of the linear trend estimation are applied. First one is least-squares (LS) method with Fisher’s test for statistical significance level. Second one is nonparametric robust (NR) method, based on Theil's rank regression and Kendall's test for statistical significance level. The NR method should be applied to time series with abnormal distribution function typical for precipitation time series. Application of the NR method result in increase the statistical significance of both positive and negative linear trends in all cases of abnormal distribution with negative/positive skewness and low/high kurtosis. Using this method, we have determined spatial patterns of statistically significant climatic trends in surface air temperature, precipitation in the Northeast Asia, and in the Northwest Pacific SST. The most substantial centennial warming in the vast continental area of the mid-latitude band is found mainly for December March. The semi-centennial/ centennial cooling occurs in South Siberia and the subarctic mid-continental area in June September. Opposite tendencies were also revealed in precipitation and SST. Positive semi-centennial tendency in the SST in the second half of the 20th century predominates in the Kuroshio region and in the northwestern area of the subarctic gyre in winter. Negative tendency in the SST dominates in the southwestern subarctic gyre and the offshore area of the subtropic gyre in summer. Comparison of air temperature, precipitation, SST trends and oscillations in different seasons over land marginal and continental areas, as well as in the subarctic and subtropic zones indicates general features of the Northeast Asian Monsoon change/oscillation in 20th century and its second half. Similar features of seasonality in centennial, semi-centennial trends and dominated oscillations are manifested. Climate change and oscillation in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas revealed for the 20th century are explained.

Impact of the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century climate change on peatland vegetation dynamics in central and northern Alberta using a multi-proxy approach and high-resolution peat chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnan, Gabriel; van Bellen, Simon; Davies, Lauren; Froese, Duane; Garneau, Michelle; Mullan-Boudreau, Gillian; Zaccone, Claudio; Shotyk, William

2018-04-01

Northern boreal peatlands are major terrestrial sinks of organic carbon and these ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to human activities and climate change, act as sensitive archives of past environmental change at various timescales. This study aims at understanding how the climate changes of the last 1000 years have affected peatland vegetation dynamics in the boreal region of Alberta in western Canada. Peat cores were collected from five bogs in the Fort McMurray region (56-57° N), at the southern limit of sporadic permafrost, and two in central Alberta (53° N and 55° N) outside the present-day limit of permafrost peatlands. The past changes in vegetation communities were reconstructed using detailed plant macrofossil analyses combined with high-resolution peat chronologies (14C, atmospheric bomb-pulse 14C, 210Pb and cryptotephras). Peat humification proxies (C/N, H/C, bulk density) and records of pH and ash content were also used to improve the interpretation of climate-related vegetation changes. Our study shows important changes in peatland vegetation and physical and chemical peat properties during the Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling period mainly from around 1700 CE and the subsequent climate warming of the 20th century. In some bogs, the plant macrofossils have recorded periods of permafrost aggradation during the LIA with drier surface conditions, increased peat humification and high abundance of ericaceous shrubs and black spruce (Picea mariana). The subsequent permafrost thaw was characterized by a short-term shift towards wetter conditions (Sphagnum sect. Cuspidata) and a decline in Picea mariana. Finally, a shift to a dominance of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia (mainly Sphagnum fuscum) occurred in all the bogs during the second half of the 20th century, indicating the establishment of dry ombrotrophic conditions under the recent warmer and drier climate conditions.

Climate sensitivity of Tibetan Plateau glaciers - past and future implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyman, Jakob; Hubbard, Alun; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Harbor, Jonathan M.

2013-04-01

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most extensively glaciated, non-Polar regions of the world, and its mountain glaciers are the primary source of melt water for several of the largest Asian rivers. During glacial cycles, Tibetan Plateau glaciers advanced and retreated multiple times, but remained restricted to the highest mountain areas as valley glaciers and ice caps. Because glacier extent is dominantly controlled by climate, the past extent of Tibetan glaciers provide information on regional climate. Here we present a study analyzing the past maximum extents of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau with the output of a 3D glacier model, in an effort to quantify Tibetan Plateau climate. We have mapped present-day glaciers and glacial landforms deposited by formerly more extensive glaciers in eight mountain regions across the Tibetan Plateau, allowing us to define present-day and past maximum glacier outlines. Using a high-resolution (250 m) higher-order glacier model calibrated against present-day glacier extents, we have quantified the climate perturbations required to expand present-day glaciers to their past maximum extents. We find that a modest cooling of at most 6°C for a few thousand years is enough to attain past maximum extents, even with 25-75% precipitation reduction. This evidence for limited cooling indicates that the temperature of the Tibetan Plateau remained relatively stable over Quaternary glacial cycles. Given the significant sensitivity to temperature change, the expectation is perhaps that a future warmer climate might result in intense glacier reduction. We have tested this hypothesis and modeled the future glacier development for the three mountain regions with the largest present-day glacier cover using a projected warming of 2.8 to 6.2°C within 100 years (envelope limits from IPCC). These scenarios result in dramatic glacier reductions, including 24-100% ice volume loss after 100 years and 77-100% ice volume loss after 300 years.

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

2012-12-01

Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about one year. The radiative and chemical effects of these aerosol clouds produce responses in the climate system. Observations and numerical models of the climate system show that volcanic eruptions produce global cooling and were the dominant natural cause of climate change for the past millennium, on timescales from annual to century. Major tropical eruptions produce winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents for one or two years, while high latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere weaken the Asian and African summer monsoon. The Toba supereruption 74,000 years ago caused very large climate changes, affecting human evolution. However, the effects did not last long enough to produce widespread glaciation. An episode of four large decadally-spaced eruptions at the end of the 13th century C.E. started the Little Ice Age. Since the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, there have been no large eruptions that affected climate, but the cumulative effects of small eruptions over the past decade had a small effect on global temperature trends. The June 13, 2011 Nabro eruption in Eritrea produced the largest stratospheric aerosol cloud since Pinatubo, and the most of the sulfur entered the stratosphere not by direct injection, but by slow lofting in the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Volcanic eruptions warn us that while stratospheric geoengineering could cool the surface, reducing ice melt and sea level rise, producing pretty sunsets, and increasing the CO2 sink, it could also reduce summer monsoon precipitation, destroy ozone, allowing more harmful UV at the surface, produce rapid warming when stopped, make the sky white, reduce solar power, perturb the ecology with more diffuse radiation, damage airplanes flying in the stratosphere, degrade astronomical observations, affect remote sensing, and affect stargazing.

Practices for Alleviating Heat Stress of Dairy Cows in Humid Continental Climates: A Literature Review

PubMed Central

Fournel, Sébastien; Ouellet, Véronique; Charbonneau, Édith

2017-01-01

Simple Summary The severity of heat stress issues on dairy cows will increase as global warming progresses. Fortunately, major advances in environmental management, including fans, misters, sprinklers, and cooled waterbeds, can attenuate the effects of thermal stress on cow health, production, and reproduction. These cooling systems were, however, tested in subtropical areas and their efficiency in northern regions is uncertain. This article assesses the potential of existing technologies to cool cows in humid continental climates through calculation of heat stress indices. Abstract Heat stress negatively affects the health and performance of dairy cows, resulting in considerable economic losses for the industry. In future years, climate change will exacerbate these losses by making the climate warmer. Physical modification of the environment is considered to be the primary means of reducing adverse effects of hot weather conditions. At present, to reduce stressful heat exposure and to cool cows, dairy farms rely on shade screens and various forms of forced convection and evaporative cooling that may include fans and misters, feed-line sprinklers, and tunnel- or cross-ventilated buildings. However, these systems have been mainly tested in subtropical areas and thus their efficiency in humid continental climates, such as in the province of Québec, Canada, is unclear. Therefore, this study reviewed the available cooling applications and assessed their potential for northern regions. Thermal stress indices such as the temperature-humidity index (THI) were used to evaluate the different cooling strategies. PMID:28468329

Impacts of reactive nitrogen on climate change in China

PubMed Central

Shi, Yalan; Cui, Shenghui; Ju, Xiaotang; Cai, Zucong; Zhu, Yong-Guan

2015-01-01

China is mobilizing the largest anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the world due to agricultural, industrial and urban development. However, the climate effects related to Nr in China remain largely unclear. Here we comprehensively estimate that the net climate effects of Nr are −100 ± 414 and 322 ± 163 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 and a GTP100 basis, respectively. Agriculture contributes to warming at 187 ± 108 and 186 ± 56 Tg CO2e on a 20-y and 100-y basis, respectively, dominated by long-lived nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertilized soils. On a 20-y basis, industry contributes to cooling at −287 ± 306 Tg CO2e, largely owing to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) altering tropospheric ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations. However, these effects are short-lived. The effect of industry converts to warming at 136 ± 107 Tg CO2e on a 100-y basis, mainly as a result of the reduced carbon (C) sink from the NOx-induced ozone effect on plant damage. On balance, the warming effects of gaseous Nr are partly offset by the cooling effects of N-induced carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. The large mitigation potentials through reductions in agricultural N2O and industrial NOx will accompany by a certain mitigation pressure from limited N-induced C sequestration in the future. PMID:25631557

Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kok, Jasper F.; Ridley, David A.; Zhou, Qing; Miller, Ron L.; Zhao, Chun; Heald, Colette L.; Ward, Daniel S.; Albani, Samuel; Haustein, Karsten

2017-01-01

Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

Lake morphometry and resource polymorphism determine niche segregation between cool- and cold-water-adapted fish.

PubMed

Hayden, Brian; Harrod, Chris; Kahilaineni, Kimmo K

2014-02-01

Climate change is increasing ambient temperatures in Arctic and subarctic regions, facilitating latitudinal range expansions of freshwater fishes adapted to warmer water temperatures. The relative roles of resource availability and interspecific interactions between resident and invading species in determining the outcomes of such expansions has not been adequately evaluated. Ecological interactions between a cool-water adapted fish, the perch (Perca fluviatilis), and the cold-water adapted European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus), were studied in both shallow and deep lakes with fish communities dominated by (1) monomorphic whitefish, (2) monomorphic whitefish and perch, and (3) polymorphic whitefish and perch. A combination of stomach content, stable-isotope, and invertebrate prey availability data were used to identify resource use and niche overlap among perch, the trophic generalist large sparsely rakered (LSR) whitefish morph, and the pelagic specialist densely rakered (DR) whitefish morph in 10 subarctic lakes at the contemporary distribution limit of perch in northern Scandinavia. Perch utilized its putative preferred littoral niche in all lakes. LSR whitefish utilized both littoral and pelagic resources in monomorphic whitefish-dominated lakes. When found in sympatry with perch, LSR whitefish exclusively utilized pelagic prey in deep lakes, but displayed niche overlap with perch in shallow littoral lakes. DR whitefish was a specialist zooplanktivore, relegating LSR whitefish from pelagic habitats, leading to an increase in niche overlap between LSR whitefish and perch in deep lakes. Our results highlight how resource availability (lake depth and fish community) governs ecological interactions between native and invading species, leading to different outcomes even at the same latitudes. These findings suggest that lake morphometry and fish community structure data should be included in bioclimate envelope-based models of species distribution shifts following predicted climate change.

Temporal and spatial patterns of Holocene dune activity on the Great Plains of North America: megadroughts and climate links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forman, Steven L.; Oglesby, Robert; Webb, Robert S.

2001-05-01

The Holocene record of eolian sand and loess deposition is reviewed for numerous presently stabilized dune fields on the Great Plains of North America. Dune field activity reflects decade-to-century-scale dominance of drought that exceeded historic conditions, with a growing season deficit of precipitation >25%. The largest dune fields, the Nebraska Sand Hills and ergs in eastern Colorado, Kansas and the Southern High Plains showed peak activity sometime between ca. 7 and 5 cal. ka. Loess deposition between ca. 10 and 4 cal. ka also signifies widespread aridity. Most dune fields exhibit evidence for one or more reactivation events sometime in the past 2 cal. ka; a number of localities register two events post 1 cal. ka, the latest potentially after 1400 AD. However, there is not a clear association of the latest dune remobilization events with up to 13 droughts in the past 2 cal. ka identified in dendroclimatic and lacustrine records. Periods of persistent drought are associated with a La Niña-dominated climate state, with cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and later of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that significantly weakens cyclogenesis over central North America. As drought proceeds, reduced soil moisture and vegetation cover would lessen evaporative cooling and increase surface temperatures. These surface changes strengthen the eastward expansion of a high-pressure ridge aloft and shift the jet stream northward, further enhancing continent-wide drought. Uncertainty persists if dune fields will reactivate in the future at a scale similar to the Holocene because of widespread irrigation, the lack of migratory bison herds, and the suppression of prairie fires, all of which enhance stabilization of dune fields in the Great Plains.

Variations of the earth's magnetic field and rapid climatic cooling: A possible link through changes in global ice volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, M. R.

1979-01-01

A possible relationship between large scale changes in global ice volume, variations in the earth's magnetic field, and short term climatic cooling is investigated through a study of the geomagnetic and climatic records of the past 300,000 years. The calculations suggest that redistribution of the Earth's water mass can cause rotational instabilities which lead to geomagnetic excursions; these magnetic variations in turn may lead to short-term coolings through upper atmosphere effects. Such double coincidences of magnetic excursions and sudden coolings at times of ice volume changes have occurred at 13,500, 30,000, 110,000, and 135,000 YBP.

Small Scale Solar Cooling Unit in Climate Conditions of Latvia: Environmental and Economical Aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaunzems, Dzintars; Veidenbergs, Ivars

2010-01-01

The paper contributes to the analyses from the environmental and economical point of view of small scale solar cooling system in climate conditions of Latvia. Cost analyses show that buildings with a higher cooling load and full load hours have lower costs. For high internal gains, cooling costs are around 1,7 €/kWh and 2,5 €/kWh for buildings with lower internal gains. Despite the fact that solar cooling systems have significant potential to reduce CO2 emissions due to a reduction of electricity consumption, the economic feasibility and attractiveness of solar cooling system is still low.

Heat export from the tropics drives mid to late Holocene palaeoceanographic changes offshore southern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perner, Kerstin; Moros, Matthias; De Deckker, Patrick; Blanz, Thomas; Wacker, Lukas; Telford, Richard; Siegel, Herbert; Schneider, Ralph; Jansen, Eystein

2018-01-01

The Leeuwin Current (LC), an eastern boundary current, transports tropical waters from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) towards southern latitudes and modulates oceanic conditions offshore southern Australia. New, high-resolution planktic foraminifer assemblage data and alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) provide an in-depth view on LC variability and mechanisms driving the current's properties during the mid to late Holocene (last c. 7.4 ka BP). Our marine reconstructions highlight a longer-term mid to late Holocene reduction of tropical heat export from the IPWP area into the LC. Mid Holocene (c. 7.4 to 3.5 ka BP) occurrence of high SSTs (>19.5 °C), tropical planktic foraminifera and a well-stratified water column document an enhanced heat export from the tropics. From c. 3.5 ka BP onwards, a weaker LC and a notably reduced tropical heat export cause oceanic cooling offshore southern Australia. The observed mid to late Holocene trends likely result from large-scale changes in the IPWP's heat storage linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We propose that a strong and warm LC occurs in response to a La Niña-like state of ENSO during the mid Holocene. The late Holocene LC cooling, however, results from a shift towards an El Niño-like state and a more variable ENSO system that causes cooling of the IPWP. Superimposed on these longer-term trends we find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability. Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the '2800 years BP cooling event', the 'Dark Ages' and the 'Little Ice Age', whereas the 'Roman Warm Period' and the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state. Our findings provide further evidence of coherent interhemispheric climatic and oceanic conditions during the mid to late Holocene, suggesting ENSO as a potential mediator.

Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

PubMed

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

2016-01-05

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

2016-01-01

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

78 FR 42491 - Aluminum Extrusions from the People's Republic of China: Notice of Court Decision Not in Harmony...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-16

...'') imported by Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. (collectively, ``Valeo..., Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court No. 12-00381 (CIT February 13, 2013).\\2... Remand, Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling, Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court...

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

A multi-proxy paleolimnological reconstruction of Holocene climate conditions in the Great Basin, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinemann, Scott A.; Porinchu, David F.; Bloom, Amy M.; Mark, Bryan G.; Box, Jason E.

2009-11-01

A sediment core spanning ˜ 7000 cal yr BP recovered from Stella Lake, a small sub-alpine lake located in Great Basin National Park, Nevada, was analyzed for subfossil chironomids (non-biting midges), diatoms, and organic content (estimated by loss-on-ignition (LOI)). Subfossil chironomid analysis indicates that Stella Lake was characterized by a warm, middle Holocene, followed by a cool "Neoglacial" period, with the last two millennia characterized by a return to warmer conditions. Throughout the majority of the core the Stella Lake diatom-community composition is dominated by small, periphytic taxa which are suggestive of shallow, cool, alkaline, oligotrophic waters with extensive seasonal ice cover. A reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed by applying a midge-based inference model for MJAT (two-component WA-PLS) consisting of 79 lakes and 54 midge taxa ( rjack2 = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). Comparison of the chironomid-inferred temperature record to existing regional paleoclimate reconstructions suggests that the midge-inferred temperatures correspond well to regional patterns. This multi-proxy record provides valuable insight into regional Holocene climate and environmental conditions by providing a quantitative reconstruction of peak Holocene warmth and aquatic ecosystem response to these changes in the Great Basin, a region projected to experience increased aridity and higher temperatures.

Regional Impacts of Urbanization in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Nigro, Joseph; Lachir, Asia; Thome, Kurtis

2017-01-01

We simulate the impact of impervious surface areas (ISA) on the U.S. local and regional climate. At a local scale, we find the urban area warmer than the surrounding vegetation in most cities, except in arid climate cities where urban temperature is cooler for much of the daytime. For all 9 regions studied, simulated results show that the growing season maximum surface temperature difference between urban and the dominant vegetation occurs around mid-day and is strongest in the northern regions. Regional temperature differences of 3.0 C, 3.4 C, and 3.9 C were simulated in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest, respectively. In these regions evaporative cooling, during the growing season, creates a stronger urban heat island (UHI). The UHI is less pronounced during winter when vegetation is dormant. Our results suggest that the ISA temperature is set by building material's characteristics and its departure from that of the surrounding vegetation is essentially driven by evaporative cooling. Except when rainfall is small, the highest surface runoff to precipitation ratios are simulated in most cities, especially when precipitation events occur as heavy downpours. In terms of photosynthesis, we provide a detailed distribution of maximum production in the U.S., a needed product for policy and urban planners.

Terrestrial responses of low-latitude Asia to the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition revealed by integrated chronostratigraphy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y. X.; Jiao, W. J.; Liu, Z. H.; Jin, J. H.; Wang, D. H.; He, Y. X.; Quan, C.

2016-02-01

The Paleogene sedimentary records from southern China hold important clues to the impacts of the Cenozoic climate changes on low latitudes. However, although there are extensive Paleogene terrestrial archives and some contain abundant fossils in this region, few are accurately dated or have a temporal resolution adequate to decipher climate changes. Here, we present a detailed stratigraphic and paleomagnetic study of a fossiliferous late Paleogene succession in the Maoming Basin, Guangdong Province. The succession consists of oil shale of the Youganwo Formation (Fm) in the lower part and the overlying sandstone-dominated Huangniuling Fm in the upper part. Fossil records indicate that the age of the succession possibly spans the late Eocene to the Oligocene. Both the Youganwo Fm and the overlying Huangniuling Fm exhibit striking sedimentary rhythms, and spectral analysis of the depth series of magnetic susceptibility of the Youganwo Fm reveals dominant sedimentary cycles at orbital frequency bands. The transition from the Youganwo oil shale to the overlying Huangniuling sandstones is conformable and represents a major depositional environmental change from a lacustrine to a deltaic environment. Integrating the magnetostratigraphic, lithologic, and fossil data allows establishing a substantially refined chronostratigraphic framework that places the major depositional environmental change at 33.88 Ma, coinciding with the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition (EOT) at ˜ 33.7 to ˜ 33.9 Ma. We suggest that the transition from a lacustrine to deltaic environment in the Maoming Basin represents terrestrial responses to the EOT and indicates prevailing drying conditions in low-latitude regions during the global cooling at EOT.

Anthropogenic aerosols and the distribution of past large-scale precipitation change

DOE PAGES

Wang, Chien

2015-12-28

In this paper, the climate response of precipitation to the effects of anthropogenic aerosols is a critical while not yet fully understood aspect in climate science. Results of selected models that participated the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project suggest that, throughout the tropics and also in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, aerosols have largely dominated the distribution of precipitation changes in reference to the preindustrial era in the second half of the last century. Aerosol-induced cooling has offset some of the warming caused by the greenhouse gases from the tropics tomore » the Arctic and thus formed the gradients of surface temperature anomaly that enable the revealed precipitation change patterns to occur. Improved representation of aerosol-cloud interaction has been demonstrated as the key factor for models to reproduce consistent distributions of past precipitation change with the reanalysis data.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chien

In this paper, the climate response of precipitation to the effects of anthropogenic aerosols is a critical while not yet fully understood aspect in climate science. Results of selected models that participated the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project suggest that, throughout the tropics and also in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, aerosols have largely dominated the distribution of precipitation changes in reference to the preindustrial era in the second half of the last century. Aerosol-induced cooling has offset some of the warming caused by the greenhouse gases from the tropics tomore » the Arctic and thus formed the gradients of surface temperature anomaly that enable the revealed precipitation change patterns to occur. Improved representation of aerosol-cloud interaction has been demonstrated as the key factor for models to reproduce consistent distributions of past precipitation change with the reanalysis data.« less

Hemispheric Symmetries of Plio-Pleistocene Surface Ocean Conditions: Insights from Southern Hemisphere ODP Sites 1125 and 1088

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, K. T.; Peterson, L.; Kelly, C.; Miller, H.; Seidenstein, J.

2013-12-01

For decades, most studies of Plio-Pleistocene climate and of the transition from the warmth of the Pliocene to the colder and more variable conditions of the Pleistocene have focused solely on northern hemisphere climate processes and responses. Here, we explore the southern hemisphere response to this major climate transition by documenting ocean surface conditions at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1125 (42οS, 178οW, 1360m) and 1088 (40οS, 15οE, 2082m) through the Plio-Pleistocene. Secular trends in alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) records indicate that these mid-latitude southern hemisphere sites cooled ~3-4οC over the past 3 Myrs, a magnitude comparable to sites located at similar latitudes in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This observation suggests that contraction of the low latitude warm pool was hemispherically symmetric. Our highly resolved (3 kyr resolution) Site 1125 SST record bears considerable structural similarity to SST records from nearby site 1123 (42οS,171οW) as well as sites 846 (3οS, 91οW) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and U1313 (41οN, 33οW) in the North Atlantic. Most of these SST records are dominated by 100k power and contain strong secondary 41k peaks throughout the past 3 million years. North Atlantic site U1313 is the exception, mirroring the shift in dominant periodicity from 41k to 100k associated with the mid-Pleistocene transition, that has long been observed in benthic oxygen isotope records. Finally, in southern hemisphere SST records as well as at site U1313 from the north Atlantic we observe weak precessional power that is not evident in benthic oxygen isotope record. These results suggest a fairly hemispherically-coordinated response of ocean surface temperature to changing global climate conditions during the Plio-Pleistocene in terms of both secular trends and dominant orbital frequencies.

Evaluation of Retrofit Variable-Speed Furnace Fan Motors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aldrich, R.; Williamson, J.

2014-01-01

In conjunction with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and Proctor Engineering Group, Ltd. (PEG), the Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) has evaluated the Concept 3 (tm) replacement motors for residential furnaces. These brushless, permanent magnet (BPM) motors can use much less electricity than their PSC (permanent split capacitor) predecessors. This evaluation focuses on existing homes in the heating-dominated climate of upstate New York with the goals of characterizing field performance and cost-effectiveness. The results of this study are intended to be useful to home performance contractors, HVAC contractors, and home efficiency program stakeholders. Themore » project includes eight homes in and near Syracuse, NY. Tests and monitoring was performed both before and after fan motors were replaced. Average fan power reductions were approximately 126 Watts during heating and 220 Watts during cooling operation. Over the course of entire heating and cooling seasons, these translated into average electric energy savings of 163 kWh. Average cost savings were $20 per year. Homes where the fan was used outside of heating and cooling mode saved an additional $42 per year on average. Results indicate that BPM replacement motors will be most cost-effective in HVAC systems with longer run times and relatively low duct static pressures. More dramatic savings are possible if occupants use the fan-only setting when there is no thermal load. There are millions of cold-climate, U.S. homes that meet these criteria, but the savings in most homes tested in this study were modest.« less

Decadal resolved leaf wax δD records of the Younger Dryas in central and eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aichner, Bernhard; Słowiński, Michał; Ott, Florian; Noryśkiewicz, Agnieszka M.; Wulf, Sabine; Brauer, Achim; Sachse, Dirk

2015-04-01

Annually laminated (varved) sediments with defined event-based age anchor points such as tephra layers enable the establishment of precise chronologies in lacustrine climate archives. This is especially useful to study subtle temporal differences in the consequences of mechanisms and feedbacks during abrupt climatic changes such as the Younger Dryas over larger spatial areas. To decipher the drivers of ecological changes across the Allerød/Younger Dryas transition in central Europe, we analyzed leaf wax biomarkers from Trzechowskie paleolake in northern Poland. Samples were taken in 10 years intervals across the onset of the Younger Dryas, with the Laacher See Tephra (12,880 yrs BP) as anchor point for age-calibration. Further, we applied compound specific hydrogen isotope analysis to infer past hydrological changes, in comparison to results from the well-dated Meerfelder Maar record located up 900 km to the southwest [1]. Between 12,750 and 12,600 yrs BP, ratios of terrestrial n-alkanes show a transition from a tree-dominated lake catchment (Pinus, Betula) to an environment mainly covered by Juniperus and grasses, which is in agreement with palynological data. δD values of n-alkanes indicate a rapid cooling and/or a change of moisture source together with a slight aridification between 12,680 and 12,600 yrs BP. This is synchronous to a rapid and strong aridification inferred for the beginning of the Younger Dryas at Meerfelder Maar (western Germany) [1] but ca. 170 yrs after the inferred onset of cooling at both Meerfelder Maar and the NGRIP ice core at 12,850 yrs BP. This highlights a different temporal succession and impact of hydrological and climatic changes in eastern compared to western Europe which could potentially be related to the stronger influence of the Fennoscandian icesheets and/or the Siberian High on atmospheric circulation patterns in the more continental climate influenced parts of eastern Europe. [1] Rach O, Brauer A, Wilkes H, Sachse D. Delayed hydrological response to Greenland cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas in western Europe. Nat Geosci. Nature Publishing Group; 2014;7:109-112.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

PubMed Central

Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng

Solar reflective “cool roofs” absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofsmore » in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (0.0021 ±0.026 K). This counters past research suggesting that cool roofs can reduce, or even increase global mean temperatures. Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.« less

Geological support for the Umbrella Effect as a link between geomagnetic field and climate

PubMed Central

Kitaba, Ikuko; Hyodo, Masayuki; Nakagawa, Takeshi; Katoh, Shigehiro; Dettman, David L.; Sato, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

The weakening of the geomagnetic field causes an increase in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. Some researchers argue that enhanced GCR flux might lead to a climatic cooling by increasing low cloud formation, which enhances albedo (umbrella effect). Recent studies have reported geological evidence for a link between weakened geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. However, more work is needed on the mechanism of this link, including whether the umbrella effect is playing a central role. In this research, we present new geological evidence that GCR flux change had a greater impact on continental climate than on oceanic climate. According to pollen data from Osaka Bay, Japan, the decrease in temperature of the Siberian air mass was greater than that of the Pacific air mass during geomagnetic reversals in marine isotope stages (MIS) 19 and 31. Consequently, the summer land-ocean temperature gradient was smaller, and the summer monsoon was weaker. Greater terrestrial cooling indicates that a reduction of insolation is playing a key role in the link between the weakening of the geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. The most likely candidate for the mechanism seems to be the increased albedo of the umbrella effect. PMID:28091595

Geological support for the Umbrella Effect as a link between geomagnetic field and climate.

PubMed

Kitaba, Ikuko; Hyodo, Masayuki; Nakagawa, Takeshi; Katoh, Shigehiro; Dettman, David L; Sato, Hiroshi

2017-01-16

The weakening of the geomagnetic field causes an increase in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. Some researchers argue that enhanced GCR flux might lead to a climatic cooling by increasing low cloud formation, which enhances albedo (umbrella effect). Recent studies have reported geological evidence for a link between weakened geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. However, more work is needed on the mechanism of this link, including whether the umbrella effect is playing a central role. In this research, we present new geological evidence that GCR flux change had a greater impact on continental climate than on oceanic climate. According to pollen data from Osaka Bay, Japan, the decrease in temperature of the Siberian air mass was greater than that of the Pacific air mass during geomagnetic reversals in marine isotope stages (MIS) 19 and 31. Consequently, the summer land-ocean temperature gradient was smaller, and the summer monsoon was weaker. Greater terrestrial cooling indicates that a reduction of insolation is playing a key role in the link between the weakening of the geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. The most likely candidate for the mechanism seems to be the increased albedo of the umbrella effect.

Impact of Infiltration and Ventilation on Measured Space Conditioning Energy and Moisture Levels in the Hot-Humid Climate, Cocoa, Florida (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None, None

Air infiltration and ventilation in residential buildings is a very large part of the heating loads, but empirical data regarding the impact on space cooling has been lacking. Moreover, there has been little data on how building tightness might relate to building interior moisture levels in homes in a hot and humid climate. To address this need, BA-PIRC has conducted research to assess the moisture and cooling load impacts of airtightness and mechanical ventilation in two identical laboratory homes in the hot-humid climate over the cooling season.

Technology Solutions Case Study: Impact of Infiltration and Ventilation on Measured Space Conditioning Energy and Moisture Levels in the Hot-Humid Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Air infiltration and ventilation in residential buildings is a very large part of the heating loads, but empirical data regarding the impact on space cooling has been lacking. Moreover, there has been little data on how building tightness might relate to building interior moisture levels in homes in a hot and humid climate. To address this need, BA-PIRC conducted research to assess the moisture and cooling load impacts of airtightness and mechanical ventilation in two identical laboratory homes in the hot-humid climate over the cooling season.

Cooling season performance of an earth-sheltered office/dormitory building in Oak Ridge, Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christian, J.E.

1984-07-01

Detailed hourly measurements taken in and around an underground office-dormitory building for two summers document energy savings; whole building-component interface problems; and specific cooling contributions from earth contact, interior thermal mass, and an economizer. The Joint Institute Dormitory (JID) saves about 30% compared with well-built above-grade buildings in a climate typical of Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and has the potential to save as much as 50%. The detailed measurements, which include extensive thermal comfort data, indicate that at least 90% of the occupants are comfortable all of the time. The thermal performance measurements and analysis determine that the peak cooling requirementmore » of this building is 50% less than that of well-built above-grade structures, permitting a cost savings on installed cooling capacity. The dominant building components contributing to the good thermal performance are the structural thermal mass, the earth-covered roof, and the earth contact provided by the bermed walls and slab floor. The 372-m/sup 2/ (4000 gross ft/sup 2/) building used about $300 (at 5.7 cents/kWh) to cool and ventilate from May through September. Eliminating a number of building design and construction anomalies could improve the whole-building performance and reduce the seasonal cooling cost another $85. Close examination of the thermal performance of this building revealed that a very efficient heat pump and thermally sound envelope do not necessarily produce otpimum performance without careful attention given to component interface details. 8 references, 24 figures, 12 tables.« less

Ecosystem thresholds in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in response to rapid climate cooling 8200 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randsalu Wendrup, Linda; Conley, Daniel J.; Hammarlund, Dan; Snowball, Ian; Carstensen, Jacob; Fritz, Sherilyn C.

2010-05-01

Commonly, ecosystems are thought to show a smooth response in relation to gradually changing conditions, shifting over long periods of time from one state to another, thus reflecting the continuum of change along environmental gradients for each set of conditions. The theoretical concept that ecosystems can experience regime shifts and shift abruptly from one state to another, producing changes in dominance of organisms and overall ecosystem behaviour has, however, existed for more than 30 years. The theory has been further developed and it has been demonstrated, in a number of different terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, that ecosystems stressed by human or climate perturbations can undergo drastic changes, first reaching an ecological threshold and then switching abruptly to an alternative state. The study of regime shifts in lakes as a result of climate change is complicated because lake biota and processes depend not only on regional climate changes but also on changes in the lake catchment and processes within the lake. Many factors in a lake will respond simultaneously and differently to the effects of climate change, resulting in complex synergy within the aquatic environment. Nevertheless we want to bring together concepts generated in contemporary ecological studies to study and test hypotheses regarding sudden mode shifts and ecological reorganisations in lakes using paleoecological methods, using diatom and numerical analyses as the main analytical tools. We are investigating how lakes respond to climate, during periods of both cooling and warming, identifying thresholds at which regime shifts occur and trying to develop numerical methods to test for regime shifts in paleoecological data. Here we present the preliminary results from a study of the ecosystem response to the "8.2 ka cold event" in Lake Kälksjön in west central Sweden. The lake is annually laminated (varved) and a series of nine radiocarbon measurements obtained at increments of 50 years have been used to wiggle match the sediments to the tree-ring derived radiocarbon calibration curve (Snowball et al., in press). Snowball et al. (in press) used the wiggle matching, organic carbon measurements, mineral magnetic parameters and XRF data and reconstructed a distinct period of enhanced erosion in the catchment from 8066±25 to 7920±25 cal. yr BP. Their results suggest that an abrupt onset of winter precipitation in west-central Sweden started at least 50 years after the onset of the "8.2 kyr cold event" as defined by oxygen isotope data from Greenland. The lake has been sampled for diatom analysis at increments of 10 years over 500 years covering the 8.2 event. The wiggle matched chronology and presence of varves allows for a high resolution time constrained diatom analysis which we hope will reveal the response of the ecosystem to the rapid cooling and also allow us to work on developing and testing numerical methods for detecting and analysing regime shifts. A preliminary low resolution diatom study shows that the diatom flora displays a benthic response to the climate cooling. It also shows that the diatoms seem to react earlier than the previously measured parameters, suggesting that the diatoms and the lake ecosystem are affected by the rapid cooling rather immediately, for example due to changes in ice cover duration, while increased winter precipitation affects the ecosystem at a later stage.

Thermochronology in southeast Alaska and southwest Yukon: Implications for North American Plate response to terrane accretion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enkelmann, Eva; Piestrzeniewicz, Adam; Falkowski, Sarah; Stübner, Konstanze; Ehlers, Todd A.

2017-01-01

This study presents the first comprehensive dataset of low-temperature thermochronology from 43 bedrock samples collected north of the active Yakutat-North American plate boundary. Our apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He and fission-track data reveal the cooling history of the inboard Wrangellia Composite Terrane that is dominated by rapid cooling after Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous arc magmatism followed by very little cooling and exhumation until today. Deformation resulting in rock exhumation due to the collision of the Yakutat microplate is spatially very limited (20-30 km) and is concentrated mainly in the Chugach-Prince William Terrane and rocks near the Border Ranges Fault. Focused exhumation from greater depths of ca. 10 km with very high rates (>5 km/Myr) is localized at the syntaxis region, starting ca. 10 Ma and shifted south through time. The rapid exhumation rates are explained by the development of strong feedbacks between tectonically driven surface uplift and erosion, which started already before glaciation of the area. The shift in the location towards the south is a consequence of continuous readjusting between tectonics and climate, which is changing on local and global scales since the Late Miocene.

Comparative study of control strategies for hybrid GSHP system in the cooling dominated climate

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shaojie; Liu, Xiaobing; Gates, Steve

2015-01-06

The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system is one of the most energy efficient HVAC technologies in the current market. However, the heat imbalance may degrade the ability of the ground loop heat exchanger (GLHX) to absorb or reject heat. The hybrid GSHP system, which combines a geothermal well field with a supplemental boiler or cooling tower, can balance the loads imposed on the ground loop heat exchangers to minimize its size while retaining superior energy efficiency. This paper presents a recent simulation-based study with an intention to compare multiple common control strategies used in hybrid GSHP systems, including fixedmore » setpoint, outside air reset, load reset, and wetbulb reset. A small office in Oklahoma City conditioned by a hybrid GSHP system was simulated with the latest version of eQUEST 3.7 [1]. In the end, the simulation results reveal that the hybrid GSHP system has the excellent capability to meet the cooling and heating setpoints during the occupied hours, balance thermal loads on the ground loop, as well as improve the thermal comfort of the occupants with the reduced size well field.« less

Polar Ice Sheets Drive Paleohydroclimate Affecting Terrestrial Plant Distribution and CO2 Exchange Potential during the Upper Carboniferous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. D.; Poulsen, C. J.; Montanez, I. P.; McElwain, J.; Wilson, J. P.; Hren, M. T.

2016-12-01

Variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration and presence or absence of polar ice sheets simulated for 310 mya using the GENESIS model show changes in terrestrial temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration at mid and lower latitudes. Classifying the data into Holdridge life zones for simulations with 280, 560, and 1120 ppm CO2, in the presence of a southern Gondwanan ice sheet resulted in progressive increase of cool temperate, humid-to-subhumid and tropical subhumid zones. Without the ice sheet, subtropical subhumid to semiarid zones expanded. Simulation results show that approximately 50% of the land area was classified as polar or tundra followed by 35 to 42%, depending on the scenario, classified as sub-tropical semiarid-to-subhumid. Only 5-8% were classified as temperate humid-to-subhumid or tropical humid-to-perhumid. Also, the absence of ice sheets reduced the moister sub-climates, such as within the tropical climate zone. Because different plant assemblages dominated each climate zone, for example cordaitaleans in the subtropical and medullosans and lycophytes in the tropics, physiological differences in these plants may have resulted in unequal CO2 exchange feedbacks to the atmosphere during climate shifts. Previous physiological modeling based on plant foliar traits indicates that late Paleozoic plant species differed in CO2 uptake capacity with highest sensitivity to water availability during periods with low atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies that vegetation climate feedbacks during this period may have been non-uniform during climate change events. Inference of plant contribution to climate forcing must rely on understanding geographic distribution of affected vegetation, inherent vegetation physiological properties, and antecedent atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results indicate that seasonally dry climates prevailed in the low-latitude land area, and that slightly cooler temperatures than today must be considered. This study also shows that mechanistic modeling of paleoclimate should consider the spatial distribution of different plant species, the distribution of water availability for plants within climate zones, and the physiological attributes of species dominating paleolandscapes at specific geologic time periods.

Fish debris in sediments of the upwelling zone off central Peru: a late Quaternary record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Vries, Thomas J.; Pearcy, William G.

1982-01-01

Scales of the anchoveta were abundantly represented among fish remains preserved in partly laminated marine sediments on the upper continental slope of Peru. Hake scales were less common. Sardine scales occurred only sporadically. Recent accumulation rates of scales indicate that prior to exploitation the anchoveta standing stock off Peru was about five times that of northern anchovy off California. During glacial time, however, clupeoids were less abundant off Peru and were more evenly distributed among sardines and anchoveta. Evidence from fish scales and phytoplankton assemblages suggests that the coastal waters off Peru did not respond to continental glacial and neoglacial advances simply by cooling. High accumulation rates of scales from warm-water fishes and tests of cool-water phytoplankton preceded and succeeded an interval containing low numbers of dominantly warm-water taxa. This interval coincided with the second neoglacial advance (2000 to 2700 y B.P.). Similar but less well-defined warm-water and cool-water assemblages coincided with the third neoglacial advance (200 to 400 y B.P.) and the last glacial retreat. Upwelling intensity probably fluctuated more widely during early and late phases of glacial and neoglacial cooling episodes, accounting for the mix of distinctly warm-water and cool-water assemblages and perhaps for an enhanced productivity. A weakened Intertropical Convergence Zone or strengthened coastal countercurrent may explain the warm-water marine faunas and floras and wet climates on the mainland of Peru inferred by others for neoglacial or glacial time.

Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

2014-05-01

In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower water availability in the region, were simulated by SWIM and WBalMo respectively. Next to changing climate conditions, also the different mining scenarios have considerable impacts on natural and managed discharges. Using the dynamic approach for cooling water demand, the simulated water demands are lower in winter, but higher in summer compared to the static approach. As a consequence of changes in the seasonal pattern of the cooling water demand of the power plants, lower summer discharges downstream of the thermal power plants are simulated using the dynamical approach. Due to the complex water management system in the region included in the water management model WBalMo, also the simulation of reservoir releases and volumes is impacted by the choice of either the static or the dynamic approach for calculating the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants.

Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue

2012-01-01

Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

Clay mineral assemblages of terrestrial records (Xining Basin, China) during the Eocene-Oligocene climate Transition (EOT) and its environmental implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Guo, Z.

2013-12-01

The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) between ~34.0 and 33.5 million years ago, where global climate cooled from 'greenhouse' to 'icehouse' at ~33.5 Ma ago, is one of the great events during Cenozoic climate deterioration. In contrast to the marine records of the EOT, significantly less research has focused on the continental climate change during this time, particularly in inner Asia. We present a comprehensive study of the upper Eocene to lower Oligocene succession with regular alternations of laterally continuous gypsum/gypsiferous layers and red mudstone beds in Tashan section of Xining Basin, which is located at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Clay minerals, which were extracted from this succession, were analyzed qualitatively and semi-quantitatively by using X-ray differaction (XRD). Base on detailed magnetostratigraphic time control, clay mineral compositions of this succession (33.1-35.5 Ma) are compared with open ocean marine records and Northern Hemisphere continental records to understand the process and characteristics of Asian climate change before, during and after EOT. Our results indicate that illite is the dominant clay mineral with less chlorite and variable smectite. Multi-parameter evidence suggests that the source areas of detrital inputs in Tashan have not changed and climate is the main control for the composition of the clay fraction. The characteristics of clay mineral concentrations suggest warm and humid fluctuations with cold and dry conditions and intense of seasonality during ~35.5-34.0 Ma in inner Asian. This changed to cold and dry condition at ~34 Ma and remained so from ~34-33.1 Ma. The comparisons between continental and marine records indicate that the climate changes experienced in the Xining basin region are more consistent with Northern Hemisphere rather than open oceans records. This indicates that paleoclimate changes for inner Asian before, during and after EOT was not controlled by Antarctic ice growth, but may be due to atmospheric cooling linked to the existence and expansion of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Timing of Indonesian Gateway Restriction Between 4.0 and 2.8 Ma and its Impact on Indian Ocean Surface Waters Based on Calcareous Nannoplankton Assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auer, G.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Groeneveld, J.; Bogus, K.; Henderiks, J.; Castañeda, I. S.; Expedition 356 Scientists, I.

2017-12-01

The Early Pliocene is characterized by a fundamental reorganization of Earth's climate. In particular, the ongoing constriction of the Indonesian Gateway (IG) around 4.0 - 3.0 Ma is commonly evoked cause for these climatic changes (Christensen et al., 2017; De Schepper et al., 2014; Karas et al., 2009; 2017). The constriction of the IG, caused by the northward movement of Australia and related uplift of Indonesia, had major effects on global climate and may have contributed to Northern Hemisphere cooling via complex atmospheric and oceanographic teleconnections. Untangling the exact timing of IG constriction is thus critical for resolving the mechanisms driving Earth's climatic evolution during the Pliocene. Here we present high-resolution reconstructions of surface water conditions and IG connectivity using calcareous nannoplankton (CNP) assemblages between 4.0 and 2.8 Ma at Site U1463 (18°59'S, 117°37'E; IODP Expedition 356). Located on the Northwest Shelf (NWS) of Australia, the site lies directly in the path of the upper branch of the Leeuwin-Holloway current, making it an ideal location to study Pliocene IG dynamics and their influence on the eastern Indian Ocean. Using modern analogue based interpretation of CNP assemblages, in combination with an independent orbitally tuned age model, shows a change in surface water conditions along the NWS 3.8 Ma recognizable by a decrease in tropical taxa like Umbilicosphaera sibogae and Sphenolithus spp. Subsequently, a shift from Gephyrocapsa sp. to Reticulofenestra sp. dominated CNP assemblages and the increase of mesotrophic CNP taxa (e.g. Umbilicosphaera jafari; Helicosphaera spp.), suggests that warm, stratified, oligotrophic (i.e. tropical) waters were replaced by cooler, more turbulent, and less saline waters by 3.8 - 3.6 Ma. We relate this switch in dominant water masses to changes in IG geometry delivering relatively cooler and fresher waters from northern Pacific sources to the NWS. The abundance of Calcidiscus leptoporus and overall decreasing CNP diversity, however, correlates with temperature records from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Combined with existing records, our data thus suggest that initial IG constriction occurred 3.8 - 3.75 Ma while also reflecting the response of the tropical Indian Ocean to cooling in the southern high latitudes.

The Abrupt Onset of the Modern South Asian Monsoon Winds (iodp Exp. 359)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Eberli, G. P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J. D.; Swart, P. K.; Nath, B. N.; Reijmer, J.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.

2016-12-01

The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most extreme features in Earth's climate system, yet its initiation and variations are not well established. The SAM is a seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by changes in precipitation with heavy rain during the summer monsoon. It is one of the most intense annually recurring climatic elements and of immense importance in supplying moisture to the Indian subcontinent thus affecting human population and vegetation, as well as marine biota in the surrounding seas. The seasonal precipitation change is one of the SAM elements most noticed on land, whereas the reversal of the wind regime is the dominating driver of circulation in the central and northern Indian Ocean realm. New data acquired during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 359 from the Inner Sea of the Maldives provide a previously unread archive that reveals an abrupt onset of the SAM-linked ocean circulation pattern and its relationship to the long term Neogene climate cooling. In particular it registers ocean current fluctuations and changes of intermediate water mass properties for the last 25 myrs that are directly related to the monsoon. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents yields an age of 12.9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of sedimentary organic matter. A weaker `proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rudd, A.

This document covers a description of the need and applied solutions for supplemental dehumidification in warm-humid climates, especially for energy efficient homes where the sensible cooling load has been dramatically reduced. In older homes in warm-humid climates, cooling loads are typically high and cooling equipment runs a lot to cool the air. The cooling process also removes indoor moisture, reducing indoor relative humidity. However, at current residential code levels, and especially for above-code programs, sensible cooling loads have been so dramatically reduced that the cooling system does not run a lot to cool the air, resulting in much less moisturemore » being removed. In these new homes, cooling equipment is off for much longer periods of time especially during spring/fall seasons, summer shoulder months, rainy periods, some summer nights, and some winter days. In warm-humid climates, those long off periods allow indoor humidity to become elevated due to internally generated moisture and ventilation air change. Elevated indoor relative humidity impacts comfort, indoor air quality, and building material durability. Industry is responding with supplemental dehumidification options, but that effort is really in its infancy regarding year-round humidity control in low-energy homes. Available supplemental humidity control options are discussed. Some options are less expensive but may not control indoor humidity as well as more expensive and comprehensive options. The best performing option is one that avoids overcooling and avoids adding unnecessary heat to the space by using waste heat from the cooling system to reheat the cooled and dehumidified air to room-neutral temperature.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rudd, Armin

This document covers a description of the need and applied solutions for supplemental dehumidification in warm-humid climates, especially for energy efficient homes where the sensible cooling load has been dramatically reduced. Cooling loads are typically high and cooling equipment runs a lot to cool the air in older homes in warm-humid climates. The cooling process also removes indoor moisture, reducing indoor relative humidity. However, at current residential code levels, and especially for above-code programs, sensible cooling loads have been so dramatically reduced that the cooling system does not run a lot to cool the air, resulting in much less moisturemore » being removed. In these new homes, cooling equipment is off for much longer periods of time especially during spring/fall seasons, summer shoulder months, rainy periods, some summer nights, and winter days. In warm-humid climates, those long-off periods allow indoor humidity to become elevated due to internally generated moisture and ventilation air change. Elevated indoor relative humidity impacts comfort, indoor air quality, and building material durability. Industry is responding with supplemental dehumidification options, but that effort is really in its infancy regarding year-round humidity control in low-energy homes. Available supplemental humidity control options are discussed. Some options are less expensive but may not control indoor humidity as well as more expensive and comprehensive options. The best performing option is one that avoids overcooling and adding unnecessary heat to the space by using waste heat from the cooling system to reheat the cooled and dehumidified air to room-neutral temperature.« less

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

PubMed Central

Büntgen, Ulf; Raible, Christoph C.; Frank, David; Helama, Samuli; Cunningham, Laura; Hofer, Dominik; Nievergelt, Daniel; Verstege, Anne; Timonen, Mauri; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Esper, Jan

2011-01-01

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years. PMID:21966436

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

[Trends of the grass ecological evolution].

PubMed

Sheremet'ev, S N; Gamaleĭ, Iu V

2009-01-01

The results of an analytic research show that the evolution of leaf structure and water balance are completely coincident with the global changes of the planet climate and hydrology. Taxic diversity of herbs and herbaceous biomes is a function of the paleoclimate variability and the plant adaptations to it. The correlation between the plant organization and climate changes allow to reconstruct both the climate changes chronicle and the geological ages of plant taxa based on the structure and function of the plant species. Two global trends of ecological evolution can be recognized differing mutually by the composition of herbaceous adaptive types: (a) the evolutionary line of herbs of chilling plains with domination of the plant species with C3 apoplastic syndrome formed under cold climate condition, and (b) the evolutionary line of herbs of hot plains with domination of plant species with C4 apoplastic syndrome. Both trends include the monocots and dicots, and both are the results of climate changes in the Cenozoic. C3 herbs of chilling plains and the steppe and meadow phytocoenoses formed by them arose as an answer to the temperature decrease in the significant areas of high latitudes. The apoplastic syndrome (transfer from symplastic transport of assimilates suppressed by cold to their apoplastic transport) is a diagnostic feature for this group of herbs. The C4 herbs of hot plains and the savannas, deserts and the saline land plant vegetation are an adaptive answer to iridizations of low latitude areas. The C4 syndrome (compensation of stomata closure by the mechanism of CO2 concentration in the leaf tissues) is a special character of this group of herbs. Both types of herbaceous biomes come to change forest biomes which were strongly decreased in both areas at low and high latitudes. This tendency is continued in parallel with the climate tendency to the continent dessication and cooling.

Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

2018-06-01

The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

Practices for Alleviating Heat Stress of Dairy Cows in Humid Continental Climates: A Literature Review.

PubMed

Fournel, Sébastien; Ouellet, Véronique; Charbonneau, Édith

2017-05-02

Heat stress negatively affects the health and performance of dairy cows, resulting in considerable economic losses for the industry. In future years, climate change will exacerbate these losses by making the climate warmer. Physical modification of the environment is considered to be the primary means of reducing adverse effects of hot weather conditions. At present, to reduce stressful heat exposure and to cool cows, dairy farms rely on shade screens and various forms of forced convection and evaporative cooling that may include fans and misters, feed-line sprinklers, and tunnel- or cross-ventilated buildings. However, these systems have been mainly tested in subtropical areas and thus their efficiency in humid continental climates, such as in the province of Québec, Canada, is unclear. Therefore, this study reviewed the available cooling applications and assessed their potential for northern regions. Thermal stress indices such as the temperature-humidity index (THI) were used to evaluate the different cooling strategies.

Mid-Miocene cooling and the extinction of tundra in continental Antarctica

PubMed Central

Lewis, Adam R.; Marchant, David R.; Ashworth, Allan C.; Hedenäs, Lars; Hemming, Sidney R.; Johnson, Jesse V.; Leng, Melanie J.; Machlus, Malka L.; Newton, Angela E.; Raine, J. Ian; Willenbring, Jane K.; Williams, Mark; Wolfe, Alexander P.

2008-01-01

A major obstacle in understanding the evolution of Cenozoic climate has been the lack of well dated terrestrial evidence from high-latitude, glaciated regions. Here, we report the discovery of exceptionally well preserved fossils of lacustrine and terrestrial organisms from the McMurdo Dry Valleys sector of the Transantarctic Mountains for which we have established a precise radiometric chronology. The fossils, which include diatoms, palynomorphs, mosses, ostracodes, and insects, represent the last vestige of a tundra community that inhabited the mountains before stepped cooling that first brought a full polar climate to Antarctica. Paleoecological analyses, 40Ar/39Ar analyses of associated ash fall, and climate inferences from glaciological modeling together suggest that mean summer temperatures in the region cooled by at least 8°C between 14.07 ± 0.05 Ma and 13.85 ± 0.03 Ma. These results provide novel constraints for the timing and amplitude of middle-Miocene cooling in Antarctica and reveal the ecological legacy of this global climate transition. PMID:18678903

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Trachsel, Mathias; Telford, Richard J.; Laepple, Thomas

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen, foraminifera or chironomids are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that in our model experiments the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We furthermore show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable, such as summer temperatures in the model's Arctic, are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution. Expert knowledge on the ecophysiological drivers of the proxies, as well as statistical methods that go beyond the cross validation on modern calibration datasets, are crucial to avoid misinterpretation.

Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes.

PubMed

Schmittner, Andreas; Galbraith, Eric D

2008-11-20

Earth's climate and the concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) varied strongly on millennial timescales during past glacial periods. Large and rapid warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic were followed by more gradual cooling, and are highly correlated with fluctuations of N(2)O as recorded in ice cores. Antarctic temperature variations, on the other hand, were smaller and more gradual, showed warming during the Greenland cold phase and cooling while the North Atlantic was warm, and were highly correlated with fluctuations in CO(2). Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have often been invoked to explain the physical characteristics of these Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations, but the mechanisms for the greenhouse-gas variations and their linkage to the AMOC have remained unclear. Here we present simulations with a coupled model of glacial climate and biogeochemical cycles, forced only with changes in the AMOC. The model simultaneously reproduces characteristic features of the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature, as well as CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations. Despite significant changes in the land carbon inventory, CO(2) variations on millennial timescales are dominated by slow changes in the deep ocean inventory of biologically sequestered carbon and are correlated with Antarctic temperature and Southern Ocean stratification. In contrast, N(2)O co-varies more rapidly with Greenland temperatures owing to fast adjustments of the thermocline oxygen budget. These results suggest that ocean circulation changes were the primary mechanism that drove glacial CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations on millennial timescales.

Paleoproductivity in the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the Pliocene-Pleistocene climate transition (3.0-1.8 Ma)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venti, Nicholas L.; Billups, Katharina; Herbert, Timothy D.

2017-02-01

Alkenone mass accumulation rates (MARs) provide a proxy for export productivity in the northwestern Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1208) spanning the late Pliocene through early Pleistocene (3.0-1.8 Ma). We investigate changes in productivity associated with global cooling during the onset and expansion of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG). Alkenone MARs vary on obliquity timescales throughout, but the amplitude increases at 2.75 Ma concurrent with the intensification of NHG and cooling of the sea surface by 3°C. The obliquity-scale variations in alkenone MARs parallel shipboard measurements of sediment color reflectance (%) with higher MARs significantly correlated (>95%) with darker (opal-rich) intervals. Variations in both lead benthic foraminiferal δ18O values by 1.5-2 kyr suggesting that export productivity may be a contributing factor, rather than a response, to the extent of continental glaciation. The biological pump is therefore a plausible mechanism for transferring atmospheric CO2 into the deep ocean during the onset of NHG and the ensuing obliquity-dominated climate regime. Obliquity-scale correlation between productivity and magnetic susceptibility is consistent with a link via westerly winds delivering terrigenous sediments and mixing the upper water column. Alkenone MARs also contain a 400 kyr modulation. Because this periodicity is a multiple of the residence time of carbon in the ocean, it may reflect inputs of new nutrients associated with eccentricity-forced changes in the terrestrial biosphere and weathering. We ascribe these findings to interactions between the East Asian winter monsoon and productivity in the North Pacific Ocean, perhaps contributing to Plio-Pleistocene climate change.

Processes Controlling the Seasonal Cycle of Arctic Aerosol Number and Size Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wentworth, G.; Croft, B.; Martin, R.; Leaitch, W. R.; Tunved, P.; Breider, T. J.; D'Andrea, S.; Pierce, J. R.; Murphy, J. G.; Kodros, J.; Abbatt, J.

2015-12-01

Measurements at high-Arctic sites show a strong seasonal cycle in aerosol number and size. The number of aerosols with diameters larger than 20 nm exhibits a maximum in late spring associated with a dominant accumulation mode, and a second maximum in the summer associated with a dominant Aitken mode. Seasonal-mean aerosol effective diameter ranges from about 160 nm in summer to 250 nm in winter. This study interprets these seasonal cycles with the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS global aerosol microphysics model. We find improved agreement with in situ measurements (SMPS) of aerosol size at both Alert, Nunavut, and Mt. Zeppelin, Svalbard following model developments: 1) increase the efficiency of wet scavenging in the Arctic summer and 2) represent coagulation between interstitial aerosols and aerosols activated to form cloud droplets. Our simulations indicate that the dominant summer-time Aitken mode is associated with increased efficiency of wet removal, which limits the number of larger aerosols and promotes local new-aerosol formation. We also find an important role of interstitial coagulation in clouds in the Arctic, which limits the number of Aitken-mode aerosols in the non-summer seasons when direct wet removal of these aerosols is inefficient. The summertime Arctic atmosphere is particularly pristine and strongly influenced by natural regional emissions which have poorly understood climate impacts. Especially influenced are the climatic roles of atmospheric particles and clouds. Here we present evidence that ammonia (NH3) emissions from migratory-seabird guano (dung) are the primary contributor to summertime free ammonia levels recently measured in the Canadian Arctic atmosphere. These findings suggest that ammonia from seabird guano is a key factor contributing to bursts of new-particle formation, which are observed every summer in the near-surface atmosphere at Alert, Canada. Chemical transport model simulations show that these newly formed particles can grow by vapour condensation to diameters sufficiently large to influence Arctic cloud properties and lead to a pan-Arctic cooling over -0.1 W m-2 with local cooling exceeding -1 W m-2 near some bird colonies. These coupled ecological-chemical processes may be susceptible to Arctic warming and industrialization.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, David L.

It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, V m, in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interactmore » with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize V m for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine V m, and then proceed to calculate V m from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the V m calculations than simply using the 2D-S measurements to directly calculate V m. By calculating V m directly from the measured PSD, ice particle projected area and estimated mass, more accurate estimates of V m are obtained. These V m values were then parameterized for climate models by relating them to (1) sampling temperature and ice water content (IWC) and (2) the effective diameter (D e) of the ice PSD. Parameterization (1) is appropriate for climate models having single-moment microphysical schemes whereas (2) is appropriate for double-moment microphysical schemes and yields more accurate V m estimates. These parameterizations were developed for tropical cirrus clouds, Arctic cirrus, mid-latitude synoptic cirrus and mid-latitude anvil cirrus clouds based on field campaigns in these regions. An important but unexpected result of this research was the discovery of microphysical evidence indicating the mechanisms by which ice crystals are produced in cirrus clouds. This evidence, derived from PSD measurements, indicates that homogeneous freezing ice nucleation dominates in mid-latitude synoptic cirrus clouds, whereas heterogeneous ice nucleation processes dominate in mid-latitude anvil cirrus. Based on these findings, D e was parameterized in terms of temperature (T) for conditions dominated by (1) homo- and (2) heterogeneous ice nucleation. From this, an experiment was designed for global climate models (GCMs). The net radiative forcing from cirrus clouds may be affected by the means ice is produced (homo- or heterogeneously), and this net forcing contributes to climate sensitivity (i.e. the change in mean global surface temperature resulting from a doubling of CO 2). The objective of this GCM experiment was to determine how a change in ice nucleation mode affects the predicted global radiation balance. In the first simulation (Run 1), the D e-T relationship for homogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes, while in the second simulation (Run 2), the D e-T relationship for heterogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes. For both runs, V m is calculated from D e. Two GCMs were used; the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and a European GCM known as ECHAM5 (thanks to our European colleagues who collaborated with us). Similar results were obtained from both GCMs in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, with a net cooling of ~ 1.0 W m -2 due to heterogeneous nucleation, relative to Run 1. The mean global net cooling was 2.4 W m -2 for the ECHAM5 GCM while CAM5 produced a mean global net cooling of about 0.8 W m -2. This dependence of the radiation balance on nucleation mode is substantial when one considers the direct radiative forcing from a CO 2 doubling is 4 W m -2. The differences between GCMs in mean global net cooling estimates may demonstrate a need for improving the representation of cirrus clouds in GCMs, including the coupling between microphysical and radiative properties. Unfortunately, after completing this GCM experiment, we learned from the company that provided the 2D-S microphysical data that the data was corrupted due to a computer program coding problem. Therefore the microphysical data had to be reprocessed and reanalyzed, and the GCM experiments were redone under our current ASR project but using an improved experimental design.« less

Andean subduction orogeny: feedbacks between tectonics, relief evolution and global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacassin, Robin; Armijo, Rolando; Coudurier-Curveur, Aurélie; Carrizo, Daniel

2016-04-01

The Andean subduction margin, largest tectonic relief on the Earth (13 km vertically from the trench to the Altiplano) has a stepped morphology, which results of the evolution over the past 50 Myr of two parallel flat-ramp thrust systems, at the - previously unidentified - West Andean Thrust (WAT), and at the subduction interface. The evolution of those thrusts appears concomitant with increasing aridity in the Atacama Desert, which keeps a large-scale record of interplaying tectonics and Cenozoic climate change. The coastal morphology is dominated by the Atacama Bench, a giant uplifted terrace at 1-2km asl. Geomorphic and climatic data, numerical experiments of drainage formation are consistent with the development of a flat Atacama morphology close to sea level, interrupted at ≤10 Ma by tectonic uplift prevailing to the present. This suggests recent trench-ward relief growth by incorporation of the coastal Atacama Bench to the Andes reliefs. Thrust splay structures and other complexities above the subduction interface may explain this relief growth, as well as the distribution of asperities under the oceanward forearc, and the down-dip segmentation of coupling and seismicity on the megathrust. Combining those results with geological knowledge at the scale of the whole Central Andes, we show that the Andean orogeny results from protracted processes of bivergent crustal shortening in a wide region squeezed between the rigid Marginal Block and the S America Plate. The overall growth curve of Andean orogeny over the past 50 Myr appears synchronous with the onset of the "ramp-shaped" temperature decrease since the Early Eocene climatic optimum. Andean growth and global cooling may have operated under the same forcing mechanism at plate-scale, involving viscous flow in the mantle. But Andean growth appears modulated by climatic feedbacks causative of stepwise reductions of erosive power over the Andean margin. The first of such events is coeval with Late Eocene cooling and promoted the eastward propagation of deformation towards the continent interior. The second one, coeval with Late Miocene cooling, is associated with the establishment of hyper-aridity in the Atacama Desert, and is responsible of a tectonic "freezing" which promoted since the triggering of subduction of the Brazilian craton, the Andean bivergent growth, and rapid uplift throughout the Andes-Altiplano. Armijo R., Lacassin R., Coudurier-Curveur A., Carrizo D., Coupled tectonic evolution of Andean orogeny and global climate, Earth Science Reviews, 143, 1-35, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.01.005, 2015.

Episodic soil succession on basaltic lava fields in a cool, dry environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaughan, K.L.; McDaniel, P.A.; Phillips, W.M.

2011-01-01

Holocene- to late Pleistocene-aged lava flows at Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve provide an ideal setting to examine the early stages of soil formation under cool, dry conditions. Transects were used to characterize the amount and nature of soil cover on across basaltic lava flows ranging in age from 2.1 to 18.4 ka. Results indicate that on flows <13 ka, very shallow organic soils (Folists in Soil Taxonomy) are the dominant soil type, providing an areal coverage of up to ∼25%. On flows ≥13.9 ka, deeper mineral soils including Entisols, Aridisols, and Mollisols become dominant and the areal extent increases to ≥95% on flows older than 18.4 ka. These data suggest there are two distinct pedogenic pathways associated with lava flows of the region. The first pathway is illustrated by the younger flows, where Folists dominate. In the absence of a major source of loess, relatively little mineral material accumulates and soils provide only minor coverage of the lava flows. Our results indicate that this pathway of soil development has not changed appreciably over the past ∼10 ka. The second pedogenic pathway is illustrated by the flows older than 13.9 ka. These flows have been subject to deposition of large quantities of loess during and after the last regional glaciation, resulting in almost complete coverage. Subsequent pedogenesis has given rise to Aridisols and Mollisols with calcic and cambic horizons and mollic epipedons. This research highlights the importance of regional climate change on the evolution of Craters of the Moon soilscapes.

Significance of aerosol radiative effect in energy balance control on global precipitation change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, Kentaroh; Stephens, Graeme L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe

Historical changes of global precipitation in the 20th century simulated by a climate model are investigated. The results simulated with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation, where the latent heat changes associated with the precipitation change is nearly balanced with changes to atmospheric radiative cooling. The atmospheric radiative cooling is dominated by its clear-sky component, which is found to correlate with changes to both column water vapor and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The water vapor-dependent component of the clear-sky radiative cooling is then found to scale with global temperaturemore » change through the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This component results in a tendency of global precipitation increase with increasing temperature at a rate of approximately 2%K -1. Another component of the clear-sky radiative cooling, which is well correlated with changes to AOD, is also found to vary in magnitude among different scenarios with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics that controls the precipitation efficiency, a major factor influencing the aerosol scavenging process that can lead to different aerosol loadings. These results propose how different characteristics of cloud microphysics can cause different aerosol loadings that in turn perturb global energy balance to significantly change global precipitation. This implies a possible coupling of aerosol–cloud interaction with aerosol–radiation interaction in the context of global energy balance.« less

Significance of aerosol radiative effect in energy balance control on global precipitation change

DOE PAGES

Suzuki, Kentaroh; Stephens, Graeme L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe

2017-10-17

Historical changes of global precipitation in the 20th century simulated by a climate model are investigated. The results simulated with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation, where the latent heat changes associated with the precipitation change is nearly balanced with changes to atmospheric radiative cooling. The atmospheric radiative cooling is dominated by its clear-sky component, which is found to correlate with changes to both column water vapor and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The water vapor-dependent component of the clear-sky radiative cooling is then found to scale with global temperaturemore » change through the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This component results in a tendency of global precipitation increase with increasing temperature at a rate of approximately 2%K -1. Another component of the clear-sky radiative cooling, which is well correlated with changes to AOD, is also found to vary in magnitude among different scenarios with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics that controls the precipitation efficiency, a major factor influencing the aerosol scavenging process that can lead to different aerosol loadings. These results propose how different characteristics of cloud microphysics can cause different aerosol loadings that in turn perturb global energy balance to significantly change global precipitation. This implies a possible coupling of aerosol–cloud interaction with aerosol–radiation interaction in the context of global energy balance.« less

Personal cooling in hot workings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuck, M.A.

1999-07-01

The number of mines experiencing climatic difficulties worldwide is increasing. In a large number of cases these climatic difficulties are confined to working areas only or to specific locations within working areas. Thus the problem in these mines can be described as highly localized, due to a large extent not to high rock temperatures but due to machine heat loads and low airflow rates. Under such situations conventional means of controlling the climate can be inapplicable and/or uneconomic. One possible means of achieving the required level of climatic control, to ensure worker health and safety whilst achieving economic gains, ismore » to adopt a system of active man cooling. This is the reverse of normal control techniques where the cooling power of the ventilating air is enhanced in some way. Current methods of active man cooling include ice jackets and various umbilical cord type systems. These have numerous drawbacks, such as limited useful exposure times and limitations to worker mobility. The paper suggests an alternative method of active man cooling than those currently available and reviews the design criteria for such a garment. The range of application of such a garment is discussed, under both normal and emergency situations.« less

Climate Control Load Reduction Strategies for Electric Drive Vehicles in Warm Weather

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffers, M. A.; Chaney, L.; Rugh, J. P.

Passenger compartment climate control is one of the largest auxiliary loads on a vehicle. Like conventional vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs) require climate control to maintain occupant comfort and safety, but cabin heating and air conditioning have a negative impact on driving range for all electric vehicles. Range reduction caused by climate control and other factors is a barrier to widespread adoption of EVs. Reducing the thermal loads on the climate control system will extend driving range, thereby reducing consumer range anxiety and increasing the market penetration of EVs. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have investigated strategies for vehiclemore » climate control load reduction, with special attention toward EVs. Outdoor vehicle thermal testing was conducted on two 2012 Ford Focus Electric vehicles to evaluate thermal management strategies for warm weather, including solar load reduction and cabin pre-ventilation. An advanced thermal test manikin was used to assess a zonal approach to climate control. In addition, vehicle thermal analysis was used to support testing by exploring thermal load reduction strategies, evaluating occupant thermal comfort, and calculating EV range impacts. Through stationary cooling tests and vehicle simulations, a zonal cooling configuration demonstrated range improvement of 6%-15%, depending on the drive cycle. A combined cooling configuration that incorporated thermal load reduction and zonal cooling strategies showed up to 33% improvement in EV range.« less

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18 000 radiocarbon years ago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marchant, R.; Cleef, A.; Harrison, S.P.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Markgraf, Vera; Van Boxel, J.; Ager, T.; Almeida, L.; Anderson, R.; Baied, C.; Behling, H.; Berrio, J.C.; Burbridge, R.; Bjorck, S.; Byrne, R.; Bush, M.; Duivenvoorden, J.; Flenley, J.; De Oliveira, P.; Van Gee, B.; Graf, K.; Gosling, W.D.; Harbele, S.; Van Der Hammen, T.; Hansen, B.; Horn, S.; Kuhry, P.; Ledru, M.-P.; Mayle, F.; Leyden, B.; Lozano-Garcia, S.; Melief, A.M.; Moreno, P.; Moar, N.T.; Prieto, A.; Van Reenen, G.; Salgado-Labouriau, M.; Schabitz, F.; Schreve-Brinkman, E. J.; Wille, M.

2009-01-01

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000??500 and 18 000??1000 radiocarbon years before present ( 14C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation. At 6000??500 14C yr BP 255 samples are analysed from 127 sites. Differences between the modern and the 6000??500 14C yr BP reconstruction are comparatively small; change relative to the modern reconstruction are mainly to biomes characteristic of drier climate in the north of the region with a slight more mesic shift in the south. Cool temperate rain forest remains dominant in western South America. In northwestern South America a number of sites record transitions from tropical seasonal forest to tropical dry forest and tropical rain forest to tropical seasonal forest. Sites in Central America show a change in biome assignment, but to more mesic vegetation, indicative of greater plant available moisture, e.g. on the Yucat??n peninsula sites record warm evergreen forest, replacing tropical dry forest and warm mixed forest presently recorded. At 18 000??1000 14C yr BP 61 samples from 34 sites record vegetation reflecting a generally cool and dry environment. Cool grass/shrubland is prevalent in southeast Brazil whereas Amazonian sites record tropical dry forest, warm temperate rain forest and tropical seasonal forest. Southernmost South America is dominated by cool grass/shrubland, a single site retains cool temperate rain forest indicating that forest was present at some locations at the LGM. Some sites in Central Mexico and lowland Colombia remain unchanged in the biome assignments of warm mixed forest and tropical dry forest respectively, although the affinities that these sites have to different biomes do change between 18000??1000 14C yr BP and present. The "unresponsive" nature of these sites results from their location and the impact of local edaphic influence. ?? Author(s) 2009.

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18 000 radiocarbon years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marchant, R.; Harrison, S.P.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Markgraf, Vera; Van Boxel, J. H.; Ager, T.; Almeida, L.; Anderson, R.; Baied, C.; Behling, H.; Berrio, J.C.; Burbridge, R.; Bjorck, S.; Byrne, R.; Bush, M.B.; Cleef, A.M.; Duivenvoorden, J.F.; Flenley, J.R.; De Oliveira, P.; Van Geel, B.; Graf, K.J.; Gosling, W.D.; Harbele, S.; Van Der Hammen, T.; Hansen, B.C.S.; Horn, S.P.; Islebe, G.A.; Kuhry, P.; Ledru, M.-P.; Mayle, F.E.; Leyden, B.W.; Lozano-Garcia, S.; Melief, A.B.M.; Moreno, P.; Moar, N.T.; Prieto, A.; Van Reenen, G. B.; Salgado-Labouriau, M. L.; Schasignbitz, F.; Schreve-Brinkman, E. J.; Wille, M.

2009-01-01

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000±500 and 18 000±1000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation.

At 6000±500 14C yr BP 255 samples are analysed from 127 sites. Differences between the modern and the 6000±500 14C yr BP reconstruction are comparatively small. Patterns of change relative to the modern reconstruction are mainly to biomes characteristic of drier climate in the north of the region with a slight more mesic shift in the south. Cool temperate rain forest remains dominant in western South America. In northwestern South America a number of sites record transitions from tropical seasonal forest to tropical dry forest and tropical rain forest to tropical seasonal forest. Sites in Central America also show a change in biome assignment to more mesic vegetation, indicative of greater plant available moisture, e.g. on the Yucat??n peninsula sites record warm evergreen forest, replacing tropical dry forest and warm mixed forest presently recorded.

At 18 000±1000 14C yr BP 61 samples from 34 sites record vegetation that reflects a generally cool and dry environment. Cool grass/shrubland prevalent in southeast Brazil, Amazonian sites record tropical dry forest, warm temperate rain forest and tropical seasonal forest. Southernmost South America is dominated by cool grass/shrubland, a single site retains cool temperate rain forest indicating that forest was present at some locations at the LGM. Some sites in Central M??xico and lowland Colombia remain unchanged in their biome assignments, although the affinities that these sites have to different biomes do change between 18 000±1000 14C yr BP and present. The " unresponsive" nature of these sites results from their location and the impact of local edaphic influence.

The impact of climate change on air conditioning requirements in Andalusia at a detailed scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limones-Rodríguez, Natalia; Marzo-Artigas, Javier; Pita-López, María Fernanda; Díaz-Cuevas, María Pilar

2017-11-01

This work calculates the current heating and cooling degree days and also examines heating and cooling degree days in relation to three subdivisions of the twenty-first century. On the basis of these data, we were able to calculate the heating and cooling degree months and degree years. After examining both sets of data, we studied the total needs of air conditioning—also referred to in the current paper as climatization needs——for Andalusia as a whole. The results indicate an increase in air conditioning needs, and we also noted that the areas adversely affected by this increase were more numerous than those which benefited, at the end of the century. It should be noted that climate change will also necessitate the gradual replacement of heating with cooling, which will require profound changes in the energy, land planning, and housing policies of the region. The true magnitude of the challenge becomes clear when the climatization degree days are related to the population which they affect; the majority of the population is located in areas where the climatization needs will increase over the course of the century. Undoubtedly, this issue is a major protagonist in the climate change adaptation process in Andalusia.

Enhanced Continental Weathering on Antarctica During the Mid Miocene Climatic Optima Based on Pb Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, E. E.; Fenn, C.; Basak, C.

2012-12-01

Feedbacks between climate and continental weathering can be monitored over geologic time scales using Pb isotopes preserved in marine sediments. During chemical weathering, radiogenic Pb is preferentially released to the dissolved phase, producing weathering solutions with more radiogenic isotopic values than the parent rock. The offset between the composition of the solution and rock tend to increase with the intensity of incongruent weathering (von Blanckenburg and Nägler, 2001; Harlavan and Erel, 2002). The seawater isotopic signal extracted from Fe-Mn oxides on bulk marine sediments is interpreted to represent the composition of local dissolved weathering inputs. For example, increasing seawater Pb isotopes observed during the most recent deglaciation are believed to reflect enhanced weathering of newly exposed glacial rock flour under warm conditions (Foster and Vance, 2006; Kurzweil et al., 2010). For this study we evaluated Nd and Pb isotopes from both the seawater fraction (extracted from Fe-Mn oxides) and parent rock (the detrital fraction of marine sediment) during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) and subsequent cooling and East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) expansion (18 to 8 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program site 744 on Kerguelen Plateau (2300 m; Indian sector) and sites 689 and 690 on Maud Rise (2080 m and 2914 m; Atlantic sector). The absolute value of seawater 206Pb/204Pb and separation between values for seawater and detrital fractions increased during the MMCO, suggesting enhanced weathering in proglacial and deglaciated areas exposed by ice sheet meltback during the warm interval. During the ensuing cooling, seawater values and the offset between the two archives decreased. Similar trends are displayed by 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb, although 207Pb/204Pb detrital values tend to be higher than seawater values. Reconstructions of atmospheric pCO2 in the Miocene have suggested both 1) decoupling between pCO2 and climate with consistently low, modern concentrations throughout the Miocene (Pagani et al., 2005; Pearson and Palmer, 2000), and 2) a correlation between higher pCO2 during the MMCO and decreasing values during cooling and re-establishment of a full-scale EAIS (Royer et al., 2001; Kürschner et al., 2008; Tripati et al., 2009; Foster et al., 2012). Our data suggest enhanced weathering during the MMCO would have contributed to a drawdown of CO2 leading to cooling, thereby supporting a correlation between climate and pCO2 in the Miocene. Nd isotopes may also fractionate during weathering. Our seawater Nd isotopes are consistently more radiogenic than detrital values, but there is no relationship between the magnitude of offset and climate conditions. Instead, documented depth stratification and regional distribution of seawater Nd isotopes in the water column indicate the Nd signal is dominated by water mass advection.

Flexible Residential Test Facility: Impact of Infiltration and Ventilation on Measured Cooling Season Energy and Moisture Levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, Danny S.; Cummings, Jamie E.; Vieira, Robin K.

Air infiltration and ventilation in residential buildings is a very large part of the heating loads, but empirical data regarding the impact on space cooling has been lacking. Moreover, there has been little data on how building tightness might relate to building interior moisture levels in homes in a hot and humid climate. To address this need, BA-PIRC has conducted research to assess the moisture and cooling load impacts of airtightness and mechanical ventilation in two identical laboratory homes in the hot-humid climate over the cooling season.

Deep Water Cooling | Climate Neutral Research Campuses | NREL

Science.gov Websites

the Cornell website. Additional examples of research campus geothermal cooling projects include Deep Water Cooling Deep Water Cooling Research campuses that are located near a deep lake or deep plan for your research campus. Considerations Sample Project Related Links Deep water cooling involves

Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

2017-08-01

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

The Past as a Window to the Future - What Does Long Term Research in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Tell Us About the Trajectory of Polar Ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooseff, M. N.; Adams, B.; Barrett, J. E.; Doran, P. T.; Fountain, A. G.; Lyons, W. B.; McKnight, D. M.; Takacs-Vesbach, C. D.; Priscu, J. C.; Sokol, E.; Virginia, R. A.; Wall, D. H.

2015-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica represent the largest ice-free area of the continent. The landscape is dominated by glaciers, exposed soils, streams, and ice-covered lakes, and hosts an incredible ecosystem that is largely driven by microbes and some invertebrates. Given the low air temperatures (-18C annual mean), little precipitation (<10 cm water equivalent/yr), and lack of vegetation cover, the Dry Valleys ecosystem is strongly influenced by physical processes. In the past two decades, summer conditions have been observed to fluctuate significantly. From 1986-2001, the area experienced a cooling trend and the ecosystem responded with decreasing soil invertebrate populations, decreased streamflow, decreased primary productivity in lakes, and decreased algal biomass in streams. Since 2001, 3 very high glacial melt years have occurred producing record stream flows and extensive wetted soils. During this most recent decade, the levels of closed-basin lakes have risen substantially, with increasing heat contents, and we have observed increased permafrost degradation along streambanks. Here we assess the ecosystem responses of the cooling 'press' that occurred from 1986-2001 and the more most recent decade that has had several strong pulses of energy driving the system to develop expectations for the future state and function of this polar desert ecosystem. We propose that the future trajectory of climate and energy input to the region will likely be more inconsistent than the cooling period was. Hence, the ecosystem will be consistently responding to pulses of change over varying time periods. We also expect that recovery of the ozone layer over Antarctica may play an important role in modifying both regional climate and the Dry Valleys ecosystem.

Thermal erosion of cratonic lithosphere as a potential trigger for mass-extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilet, S.; Müntener, O.; Jean, G.; Schoene, B.; Schaltegger, U.

2016-12-01

The temporal coincidence between LIPs and mass extinctions has led many to pose a causal relationship between the two. However, there is still no consensus on a mechanistic model that explains how magmatism leads to the turnover of terrestrial and marine plants, invertebrates and vertebrates. Here, we present a synthesis of stratigraphic constraints on the Triassic-Jurassic and Pliensbachian-Toarcian boundaries combined with geochronological data demonstrating that these biotic crises are both associated with rapid change from an initial cool period to greenhouse conditions. As current hypothesis for LIPs seems unable to produce these successive climatic changes, we evaluate an alternative suggesting that the initial cooling could be due to gas release during the initial thermal erosion of the cratonic lithosphere due to emplacement of the CAMP and Karoo-Ferrar volcanic provinces. Karoo and CAMP areas were underlain by thick lithosphere (>200 km) prior to continental break up. Even in presence of abnormal potential mantle temperature, the presence of thick lithosphere excludes significant melting of the asthenospheric mantle without initial stage of thermal erosion of the cratonic lithosphere. Various studies on Kaapvaal craton have shown that sulfide minerals are enclosed in the basal part of the cratonic lithosphere. We argue that initial gas emission was dominated by sulfur liberated from sulfide-bearing cratonic lithosphere causing global cooling and eustatic regression, which was followed by warming/transgression associated with the progressive increase of CO2 in the atmosphere associated to LIPs emission. We suggest that the nature of the underlying lithosphere during large LIP eruption exerts an important control on the consequences at the Earth's surface. This model offers an explanation for why LIPs erupted through oceanic lithosphere are not associated with climatic and biotic crises comparable to LIPs emitted through cratonic lithosphere.

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhibin; Cazelles, Bernard; Tian, Huidong; Christian Stige, Leif; Bräuning, Achim; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2008-01-01

Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957–1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160–170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160–170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects. PMID:19033144

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2003-01-01

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

An Anatomy of the 1960s Atlantic Cooling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodson, Dan; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

2014-05-01

North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability during the 20th Century. In particular, the North Atlantic SSTs exhibited a rapid warming between 1920 and 1940 followed by a rapid cooling between 1960 and 1980. SSTs outside the North Atlantic display a much smaller level of decadal variability over the 20th Century. This pattern of North Atlantic warming and cooling has been linked to subsequent changes in rainfall over the Sahel and Nordeste Brazil, Summertime North American Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Genesis. Several hypotheses for the rapid 1960s Atlantic cooling have been proposed, including a reduction in northward ocean heat transport due to a reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the significant rise in anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions during the latter half of the 20th century. Here we examine the observed 1960s Atlantic cooling in more detail. We describe the evolution of the rapid cooling by constructing a detailed multivariate anatomy of the cooling period in order to illuminate the possible explanations and mechanisms involved. We show that the observed 1960s cooling began around 1964-68 in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) seas, later spreading to the Atlantic Sub Polar Gyre and much of the subtropical Atlantic. This initial cooling of the Sub Polar Gyre is associated with a marked reduction in salinity (the Great Salinity Anomaly). The cooling peaked between 1972-76, extending into the Tropical North Atlantic. This period also saw the development of a significant Winter North-South Dipole Mean Sea Level Pressure dipole pattern reminiscent of a positive NAO (High over the Azores, Low over Iceland). The cooling then retreated back to higher latitudes during 1976:80. Our analysis demonstrates that the cooling of the North Atlantic during the 1960s cannot be understood as a simple thermodynamic response to aerosol induced reductions in shortwave radiation. Dynamical changes in the circulation of the atmosphere, and likely that of the ocean too, played an important role. We propose two possible mechanisms, both beginning with a rapid cooling of the Sub Polar Gyre and leading to a subsequent change in atmospheric circulation which pushes the cooling deeper into the Tropical North Atlantic. Further work is required to determine which mechanism was the dominant driver of the observed cooling event. Understanding such past events is essential to improve confidence in decadal predictions.

Pinatubo global cooling on target

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1993-01-29

When Pinatubo blasted millions of tons of debris into the stratosphere in June 1991, Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies used his computer climate model to predict that the shade cost by the debris would cool the globe by about half a degree C. Year end temperature reports for 1992 are now showing that the prediction was on target-confirming the tentative belief that volcanos can temporarily cool the climate and validating at least one component of the computer models predicting a greenhouse warming.

Predicting summer residential electricity demand across the U.S.A using climate information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Wang, S.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

We developed a Bayesian Hierarchical model to predict monthly residential per capita electricity consumption at the state level across the USA using climate information. The summer period was selected since cooling requirements may be directly associated with electricity use, while for winter a mix of energy sources may be used to meet heating needs. Historical monthly electricity consumption data from 1990 to 2013 were used to build a predictive model with a set of corresponding climate and non-climate covariates. A clustering analysis was performed first to identify groups of states that had similar temporal patterns for the cooling degree days of each state. Then, a partial pooling model was applied to each cluster to assess the sensitivity of monthly per capita residential electricity demand to each predictor (including cooling-degree-days, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, per capita electricity demand of previous month and previous year, and the residential electricity price). The sensitivity of residential electricity to cooling-degree-days has an identifiable geographic distribution with higher values in northeastern United States.

Greenhouse to icehouse: Understanding the role of CO2 and non-CO2 forcings in warm climate intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldner, Aaron P.

The Earth system has evolved significantly over the past 65 million years. A relatively ice free world dominated the Eocene ˜45 million years ago (Ma), until the late Oligocene (˜34 Ma) when the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) developed in relatively short time period. Throughout the Oligocene and Miocene (23 to 5.3 Ma) temperatures gradually decreased as atmospheric CO2 continued to fall, vegetation biomes shifted, ocean circulation moved into its modern positions, and ocean gateways opened and closed. This transition from the warm and humid Eocene climate to the icehouse world we currently live has largely been attributed to a gradual decline in atmospheric CO 2. Acknowledging the fact that CO2 was the dominant driver in the gradual cooling over the last 65 million years, here we explore the less constrained feedbacks and forcings within the Earth system. These non-CO 2 forcings are important and could prove pivotal as we continue to constrain future climate prediction. Here we explore the climatic impact and forcing of the AIS, the oceanic response to AIS forcing, the temperature and precipitation patterns induced by changes in the El Nino southern Oscillation, and the impacts of El Nino and AIS forcing in the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO). Specifically, we find that the distribution of sea surface temperature (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial pacific has a teleconnected fingerprint throughout the world and more El Nino like conditions is a possible explanation of the wetter conditions in the mid-latitudes during the Pliocene and Miocene. The effective forcing and temperature impact of the Antarctic Ice Sheet depends on the mean climate state as modern climate responds differently to removing the AIS than at the Eocene-Oligocene transition and during the MMCO. The differing temperature and climate sensitivity response is largely controlled by low cloud and sea-ice feedbacks during these time periods and the efficacy of AIS forcing in the Eocene is not necessarily close to one and is likely to be model and state dependent. We also find that adding the AIS into the unglaciated Eocene world cools the deep ocean comparable to previous modelling studies that opened southern ocean gateways. The modelled delta18O anomaly induced by glaciation is comparable to the change detected in the proxy records across the transition suggesting that the AIS can induce changes in ocean circulation and thermal structure, thus reversing the hypothesis that gateways caused a reorganization of ocean circulation and glaciation across the EOT. Finally, Simulating the MMCO at 400 ppm CO2 using a recently released state of the art modelling framework produces a model data mismatch in global MAT and at high latitudes. The discrepancy is comparable to that introduced by a full doubling of CO2. It is noteworthy that including two of the most discussed Earth system feedbacks (El Nino and reduced ice volume) had small impacts on improving the model predictions even when we included uncertainty from orbital forcing. In summary, the Earth system is complex and explaining the warmth in past greenhouse climates requires many changes to boundary conditions, the right climate modelling framework, and better understanding of the non-CO 2 climate forcings.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-09-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years -- a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings -- global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Challenges of using air conditioning in an increasingly hot climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Hornyanszky, Elisabeth Dalholm; Chu, Tuan Anh; Olsson, Johanna Alkan; Becker, Per

2018-03-01

At present, air conditioning (AC) is the most effective means for the cooling of indoor space. However, its increased global use is problematic for various reasons. This paper explores the challenges linked to increased AC use and discusses more sustainable alternatives. A literature review was conducted applying a transdisciplinary approach. It was further complemented by examples from cities in hot climates. To analyse the findings, an analytical framework was developed which considers four societal levels—individual, community, city, and national. The main challenges identified from the literature review are as follows: environmental, organisational, socio-economical, biophysical and behavioural. The paper also identifies several measures that could be taken to reduce the fast growth of AC use. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, there is no single solution to provide sustainable cooling. Alternative solutions were categorised in three broad categories: climate-sensitive urban planning and building design, alternative cooling technologies, and climate-sensitive attitudes and behaviour. The main findings concern the problems arising from leaving the responsibility to come up with cooling solutions entirely to the individual, and how different societal levels can work towards more sustainable cooling options. It is concluded that there is a need for a more holistic view both when it comes to combining various solutions as well as involving various levels in society.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-01-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CEthat is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

[Energy policy rather than climate policy].

PubMed

Kroonenberg, Salomon B

2009-01-01

Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

Water conservation benefits of urban heat mitigation: can cooling strategies reduce water consumption in California?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Jones, A. D.

2017-12-01

Urban areas are at the forefront of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts given their high concentration of people, industry, and infrastructure. Many cities globally are seeking strategies to counter the consequences of both a hotter and drier climate. While urban heat mitigation strategies have been shown to have beneficial effects on health, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, their implications for water conservation have not been widely examined. Here we show that broad implementation of cool roofs, an urban heat mitigation strategy, not only results in significant cooling of air temperature, but also meaningfully decreases outdoor water consumption by reducing evaporative and irrigation water demands. Based on a suite of satellite-supported, multiyear regional climate simulations, we find that cool roof adoption has the potential to reduce outdoor water consumption across the major metropolitan areas in California by up to 9%. Irrigation water savings per capita, induced by cool roofs, range from 1.8 to 15.4 gallons per day across 18 counties examined. Total water savings in Los Angeles county alone is about 83 million gallons per day. While this effect is robust across the 15 years examined (2001-2015), including both drought and non-drought years, we find that cool roofs are most effective during the hottest days of the year, indicating that they could play an even greater role in reducing outdoor water use in a hotter future climate. We further show that this synergistic relationship between heat mitigation and water conservation is asymmetrical - policies that encourage direct reductions in irrigation water use can lead to substantial regional warming, potentially conflicting with heat mitigation efforts designed to counter the effects of the projected warming climate.

Midlatitude cooling caused by geomagnetic field minimum during polarity reversal.

PubMed

Kitaba, Ikuko; Hyodo, Masayuki; Katoh, Shigehiro; Dettman, David L; Sato, Hiroshi

2013-01-22

The climatic effects of cloud formation induced by galactic cosmic rays (CRs) has recently become a topic of much discussion. The CR-cloud connection suggests that variations in geomagnetic field intensity could change climate through modulation of CR flux. This hypothesis, however, is not well-tested using robust geological evidence. Here we present paleoclimate and paleoenvironment records of five interglacial periods that include two geomagnetic polarity reversals. Marine oxygen isotope stages 19 and 31 contain both anomalous cooling intervals during the sea-level highstands and the Matuyama-Brunhes and Lower Jaramillo reversals, respectively. This contrasts strongly with the typical interglacial climate that has the temperature maximum at the sea-level peak. The cooling occurred when the field intensity dropped to <40% of its present value, for which we estimate >40% increase in CR flux. The climate warmed rapidly when field intensity recovered. We suggest that geomagnetic field intensity can influence global climate through the modulation of CR flux.

Midlatitude cooling caused by geomagnetic field minimum during polarity reversal

PubMed Central

Kitaba, Ikuko; Hyodo, Masayuki; Katoh, Shigehiro; Dettman, David L.; Sato, Hiroshi

2013-01-01

The climatic effects of cloud formation induced by galactic cosmic rays (CRs) has recently become a topic of much discussion. The CR–cloud connection suggests that variations in geomagnetic field intensity could change climate through modulation of CR flux. This hypothesis, however, is not well-tested using robust geological evidence. Here we present paleoclimate and paleoenvironment records of five interglacial periods that include two geomagnetic polarity reversals. Marine oxygen isotope stages 19 and 31 contain both anomalous cooling intervals during the sea-level highstands and the Matuyama–Brunhes and Lower Jaramillo reversals, respectively. This contrasts strongly with the typical interglacial climate that has the temperature maximum at the sea-level peak. The cooling occurred when the field intensity dropped to <40% of its present value, for which we estimate >40% increase in CR flux. The climate warmed rapidly when field intensity recovered. We suggest that geomagnetic field intensity can influence global climate through the modulation of CR flux. PMID:23297205

Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests.

PubMed

Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R

2017-06-01

Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (< 20 °C), high rainfall slowed rates of C cycling, but in warm tropical forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Can We Use Single-Column Models for Understanding the Boundary Layer Cloud-Climate Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Gesso, S.; Neggers, R. A. J.

2018-02-01

This study explores how to drive Single-Column Models (SCMs) with existing data sets of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, with the aim of studying the boundary layer cloud response to climate change in the marine subtropical trade wind regime. The EC-EARTH SCM is driven with the large-scale tendencies and boundary conditions as derived from two different data sets, consisting of high-frequency outputs of GCM simulations. SCM simulations are performed near Barbados Cloud Observatory in the dry season (January-April), when fair-weather cumulus is the dominant low-cloud regime. This climate regime is characterized by a near equilibrium in the free troposphere between the long-wave radiative cooling and the large-scale advection of warm air. In the SCM, this equilibrium is ensured by scaling the monthly mean dynamical tendency of temperature and humidity such that it balances that of the model physics in the free troposphere. In this setup, the high-frequency variability in the forcing is maintained, and the boundary layer physics acts freely. This technique yields representative cloud amount and structure in the SCM for the current climate. Furthermore, the cloud response to a sea surface warming of 4 K as produced by the SCM is consistent with that of the forcing GCM.

Climate Events and Cycles During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eun Hee; Lee, Dae-Young; Park, Mi-Young

2017-09-01

During the last glacial-interglacial transition, there were multiple intense climatic events such as the Bølling-Allerød warming and Younger Dryas cooling. These events show abrupt and rapid climatic changes. In this study, the climate events and cycles during this interval are examined through wavelet analysis of Arctic and Antarctic ice-core 18O and tropical marine 14C records. The results show that periods of 1383-1402, 1029-1043, 726-736, 441-497 and 202-247 years are dominant in the Arctic region, whereas periods of 1480, 765, 518, 311, and 207 years are prominent in the Antarctic TALDICE. In addition, cycles of 1019, 515, and 209 years are distinct in the tropical region. Among these variations, the de Vries cycle of 202-209 years, correlated with variations in solar activity, was detected globally. In particular, this cycle shows a strong signal in the Antarctic between about 13,000 and 10,500 yr before present (BP). In contrast, the Eddy cycle of 1019-1043 years was prominent in Greenland and the tropical region, but was not detected in the Antarctic TALDICE records. Instead, these records showed that the Heinrich cycle of 1480 year was very strong and significant throughout the last glacial-interglacial interval.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Extent of Night Warming Differentiates the Temporal Trend of Tropical Greenness over 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Gao, Q.; Gao, C.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamic but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and associated mechanisms are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated trend of greenness in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000 - 2015 and further analyzed the trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to separate the climate impacts. We hypothesized that rainfall decrease or/and warming would reduce EVI in this tropical region. All five countries showed significantly decreasing EVI except Cuba of which EVI was increasing partly due to strong reforestation. Haiti has the steepest decreasing EVI due to its deforestation for charcoals. EVI trend varied greatly even for patches without LCLUC, tending to decrease in the windward but increase in the leeward of the island Puerto Rico. Contrary to our intuition, the rainfall was mostly increasing. However the rising night temperature significantly and negatively correlates with the spatial pattern of EVI trends. Although the cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, night warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000–2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend. PMID:28120949

Size, diet, and condition of age-0 Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) during warm and cool climate states in the eastern Bering sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farley, Edward V.; Heintz, Ron A.; Andrews, Alex G.; Hurst, Thomas P.

2016-12-01

The revised Oscillating Control Hypothesis for the Bering Sea suggests that recruitment of groundfish is linked to climatic processes affecting seasonal sea ice that, in turn, drives the quality and quantity of prey available to young fish for growth and energy storage during their critical life history stages. We test this notion for age-0 (juvenile) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) by examining the variability in size, diet, and energetic condition during warm (2003-2005), average (2006), and cool (2007-2011) climate states in the eastern Bering Sea. Juvenile cod stomachs contained high proportions of age-0 walleye pollock (by wet weight) during years with warm sea temperatures with a shift to euphausiids and large copepods during years with cool sea temperatures. Juvenile cod were largest during years with warm sea temperatures and smallest during years with cool sea temperatures. However, energetic status (condition) of juvenile cod was highest during years with cool sea temperatures. This result is likely linked to the shift to high quality, lipid-rich prey found in greater abundance on the shelf and in the stomach contents of juvenile cod during cool years. Our examination of juvenile cod size, diet, and energetic status provided results that are similar to those from studies on juvenile pollock, suggesting that the common mechanisms regulating gadid recruitment on the eastern Bering Sea shelf are climate state, prey quality and quantity, and caloric density of gadids prior to winter.

The lock-in effect and the greening of automotive cooling systems in the European Union.

PubMed

Bjørnåvold, Amalie; Van Passel, Steven

2017-12-01

As of 2017, the sale and use of the refrigerants most commonly used in automotive cooling systems - hydrofluorocarbons - are entirely banned in all new vehicles placed on the market in the European Union. These refrigerants have been recognised as potent greenhouse gases and, therefore, direct contributors to climate change. It is within this regulation-driven market that the technologies for a sustainable solution have been developed. However, this paper argues that the market for automotive cooling systems has been 'locked-in', which means that competing technologies, operating under dynamic increasing returns, will allow for one - potentially inferior technology - to dominate the market. Whilst such a situation is not uncommon, this paper discusses the way that regulation has reinforced a patented monopoly in 'picking winners': to the advantage of a synthetic chemical, R-1234yf, as opposed to the natural solution, which is CO 2 . By developing a generic conceptual framework of path dependence and lock-in, the presented evidence seeks to show how a snowballing effect has led to the intensification of differences in market share. We also argue that the automotive industry is potentially promoting short-term fixes, rather than long-term, sustainable and economically viable solutions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of cooling management on blood flow to the dominant follicle and estrous cycle length at heat stress.

PubMed

Honig, Hen; Ofer, Lior; Kaim, Moshe; Jacobi, Shamay; Shinder, Dima; Gershon, Eran

2016-07-15

The use of ultrasound imaging for the examination of reproductive organs has contributed substantially to the fertility management of dairy cows around the world. This method has many advantages such as noninvasiveness and immediate availability of information. Adding Doppler index to the ultrasound imaging examination, improved the estimation of blood volume and flow rate to the ovaries in general and to the dominant follicle in particular. The aim of this study was to examine changes in the blood flow to the dominant follicle and compare them to the follicular development throughout the cycle. We further set out to examine the effects of different types of cooling management during the summer on the changes in blood flow to the dominant follicle. For this purpose, 24 Israeli-Holstein dairy cows, under heat stress, were randomly assigned one of two groups: one was exposed to five cooling sessions per day (5CS) and the other to eight cooling sessions per day (8CS). Blood flow to the dominant follicle was measured daily using Doppler index throughout the estrous cycle. No differences in the preovulatory dominant follicle diameter were detected between the two cooling management regimens during the cycle. However, the length of the first follicular wave was significantly longer, whereas the second follicular wave was nonsignificantly shorter in the 5CS group as compared to the 8CS group. In addition, no difference in blood flow was found during the first 18 days of the cycle between the two groups. However, from Day 20 until ovulation a higher rate of blood flow was measured in the ovaries of cows cooled 8 times per day as compared to the 5CS group. No differences in progesterone levels were noted. Finally, the estrous cycle length was shorter in the 8CS group as compared to the 5CS group. Our data suggest that blood flow to the dominant follicle and estrous cycle length is affected by heat stress. Using the appropriate cooling management during heat stress can enhance the blood flow to the ovary and may contribute to improved fertility in dairy cows. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change.

PubMed

Reyna, Janet L; Chester, Mikhail V

2017-05-15

Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyna, Janet L.; Chester, Mikhail V.

2017-05-01

Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.

Residential Variable-Capacity Heat Pumps Sized to Heating Loads

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munk, Jeffrey D.; Jackson, Roderick K.; Odukomaiya, Adewale

2014-01-01

Variable capacity heat pumps are an emerging technology offering significant energy savings potential and improved efficiency. With conventional single-speed systems, it is important to appropriately size heat pumps for the cooling load as over-sizing would result in cycling and insufficient latent capacity required for humidity control. These appropriately sized systems are often under-sized for the heating load and require inefficient supplemental electric resistance heat to meet the heating demand. Variable capacity heat pumps address these shortcomings by providing an opportunity to intentionally size systems for the dominant heating season load without adverse effects of cycling or insufficient dehumidification in themore » cooling season. This intentionally-sized system could result in significant energy savings in the heating season, as the need for inefficient supplemental electric resistance heat is drastically reduced. This is a continuation of a study evaluating the energy consumption of variable capacity heat pumps installed in two unoccupied research homes in Farragut, a suburb of Knoxville, Tennessee. In this particular study, space conditioning systems are intentionally sized for the heating season loads to provide an opportunity to understand and evaluate the impact this would have on electric resistance heat use and dehumidification. The results and conclusions drawn through this research are valid and specific for portions of the Southeastern and Midwestern United States falling in the mixed-humid climate zone. While other regions in the U.S. do not experience this type of climate, this work provides a basis for, and can help understand the implications of other climate zones on residential space conditioning energy consumption. The data presented here will provide a framework for fine tuning residential building EnergyPlus models that are being developed.« less

Pleistocene aridification cycles shaped the contemporary genetic architecture of Southern African baboons.

PubMed

Sithaldeen, Riashna; Ackermann, Rebecca Rogers; Bishop, Jacqueline M

2015-01-01

Plio-Pleistocene environmental change influenced the evolutionary history of many animal lineages in Africa, highlighting key roles for both climate and tectonics in the evolution of Africa's faunal diversity. Here, we explore diversification in the southern African chacma baboon Papio ursinus sensu lato and reveal a dominant role for increasingly arid landscapes during past glacial cycles in shaping contemporary genetic structure. Recent work on baboons (Papio spp.) supports complex lineage structuring with a dominant pulse of diversification occurring 1-2Ma, and yet the link to palaeoenvironmental change remains largely untested. Phylogeographic reconstruction based on mitochondrial DNA sequence data supports a scenario where chacma baboon populations were likely restricted to refugia during periods of regional cooling and drying through the Late Pleistocene. The two lineages of chacma baboon, ursinus and griseipes, are strongly geographically structured, and demographic reconstruction together with spatial analysis of genetic variation point to possible climate-driven isolating events where baboons may have retreated to more optimum conditions during cooler, drier periods. Our analysis highlights a period of continuous population growth beginning in the Middle to Late Pleistocene in both the ursinus and the PG2 griseipes lineages. All three clades identified in the study then enter a state of declining population size (Nef) through to the Holocene; this is particularly marked in the last 20,000 years, most likely coincident with the Last Glacial Maximum. The pattern recovered here conforms to expectations based on the dynamic regional climate trends in southern Africa through the Pleistocene and provides further support for complex patterns of diversification in the region's biodiversity.

Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like land planet with overland water recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalidindi, S.; Reick, C. H.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.

2017-12-01

Prior studies have demonstrated that habitable areas on low-obliquity land planets are confined to the edges of frozen ice caps. Whether such dry planets can maintain long-lived liquid water is unclear. Leconte et al. 2013 argue that on such planets mechanisms like gravity driven ice flows and geothermal flux can maintain liquid water at the edges of thick ice caps and this water may flow back to the lower latitudes through rivers. However, there exists no modelling study which investigates the climate of an Earth-like land planet with an overland recycling mechanism bringing fresh water back from higher to lower latitudes. In our study, by using a comprehensive climate model ICON, we find that an Earth-like land planet with an overland recycling mechanism can exist in two drastically different climate states for the same set of boundary conditions and parameter values: A Cold and Wet (CW) state with dominant low-latitude precipitation and, a Hot and Dry (HD) state with only high-latitude precipitation. For perpetual equinox conditions, both climate states are stable below a certain threshold value of background soil albedo (α) while above that only the CW state is stable. Starting from the HD state and increasing α above the threshold causes an abrupt shift from the HD state to the CW state resulting in a sudden cooling of about 35°C globally which is of the order of the temperature difference between the present-day and the Snowball Earth state. In contrast to the Snowball Earth instability, we find that the sudden cooling in our study is driven by the cloud albedo feedback rather than the snow-albedo feedback. Also, when α in the CW state is reduced back to zero the land planet does not display a closed hysteresis. Our study also has implications for the habitability of Earth-like land planets. At the inner edge of the habitable zone, the higher cloud cover in the CW state cools the planet and may prevent the onset of a runaway greenhouse state. At the outer edge, the resupply of water at lower latitudes stabilizes the greenhouse effect and keeps the planet in the HD state and may prevent water from getting trapped at higher latitudes in frozen form. Overall, the existence of bi-stability in the presence of an overland recycling mechanism hints at the possibility of a wider habitable zone for Earth-like land planets at lower obliquities.

Contradictory cooling in a warmer world? the climate of the Mediterranean region during the ';Holocene Thermal Maximum'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, B.

2013-12-01

Extensive evidence from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere indicates that temperatures were warmer than present during the early-mid Holocene, a period known as the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). The existence of the HTM over lower mid-latitudes and the sub-tropics however is less clear, with pollen-based reconstructions in particular actually indicating a contrary cooling at this time in these regions. This apparent cooling is controversial because it is not shown in climate model simulations, which indicate that the HTM occurred across all extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is also supported by alkenone based SST reconstructions, which also show a much more widespread HTM than indicated by the pollen data. Here this problem is investigated by reviewing the evidence both for, and against, the HTM in the Mediterranean region, which represents one of the most intensively studied regions of sub-tropical climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This evidence includes a large number of both marine and terrestrial records that can be directly compared due to their close proximity around the Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight the potential for bias in both marine and terrestrial climate proxies, but despite many criticisms of the pollen-based record, it is shown that the existence of more extensive temperate vegetation in the early-mid Holocene in the Mediterranean is difficult to explain by anything other than a cooler climate. For instance, vegetation models driven by climate model output show that the warmer climate suggested by the models produces a HTM vegetation even more arid than today. The results have important implications in the interpretation of proxy records, but perhaps most importantly, the potential for climate models to underestimate cooling processes in a warmer world needs further investigation.

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings

PubMed Central

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

Low Elevation Riparian Environments: Warm-Climate Refugia for Conifers in the Great Basin, USA?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, C.; Charlet, D. A.; Westfall, R. D.; Delany, D.

2015-12-01

The Great Basin, USA, contains hundreds of small to large mountain ranges. Many reach alpine elevations, which are separated from each other by low-elevation basins currently inhospitable to conifer growth. Many of these ranges support montane and subalpine conifer species that have affinities to the Sierra Nevada or Rocky Mountains, and from which these conifers migrated during cool periods of the Pleistocene. Under Holocene climates, the Great Basin geography became a terrestrial island-archipelago, wherein conifer populations are isolated among ranges, and inter-range migration is highly limited. During warm intervals of the Holocene, conifers would be expected to have migrated upslope following favorable conditions, and extirpation would be assumed to result from continued warming. Independent patterns, repeating across multiple species' distributions, however, suggest that refugia were present in these ranges during warm periods, and that low elevation environments below the current main distributions acted as climatic refugia. We hypothesize that cool, narrow, and north-aspect ravines, which during cool climates support persistent or seasonal creeks and deciduous riparian communities, become available as conifer habitat when warming climates desiccate creeks and deplete riparian species. We further speculate that cold-air drainage, reduced solar insolation, lower wind exposure, and higher water tables in these topographic positions support populations of montane and subalpine conifers even during warm climate intervals when high elevations are unfavorable for conifer persistence. On return to cool climates, low elevation refugia become sources for recolonizing higher slopes, and/or continue to persist as relictual populations. We present several lines of evidence supporting this hypothesis, and speculate that low-elevation, extramarginal riparian environments might act as climate refugia for Great Basin conifers in the future as well.

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

PubMed

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Middle Miocene climate cooling linked to intensification of eastern equatorial Pacific upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holbourn, A. E.; Kuhnt, W.; Lyle, M. W.; Schneider, L. J.; Romero, O. E.; Andersen, N.

2013-12-01

During the middle Miocene, Earth's climate transitioned from a relatively warm phase (Miocene climatic optimum, ~17-15 Ma) into a colder mode with re-establishment of permanent ice sheets on Antarctica. Carbon sequestration and atmospheric CO2 drawdown through increased terrigenous and/or marine productivity have been proposed as the main drivers of this fundamental transition. However, comparatively little is known about the processes initially sustaining global warmth and about the chain of climate events that reversed this trend and promoted ice growth on Antarctica after ~15 Ma. We integrate high-resolution (1-3 kyr) benthic stable isotope data with XRF-scanner derived biogenic silica and carbonate accumulation estimates in an exceptionally well-preserved sedimentary archive to reconstruct variations in eastern equatorial Pacific upwelling and to investigate temporal linkages between high- and low-latitude climate change over the interval 16-13 Ma. Our records show that the climatic optimum (16.8-14.7 Ma) was characterized by high amplitude climate variations, marked by intense perturbations of the carbon cycle. Episodes of peak warmth at (southern hemisphere) insolation maxima coincided with transient shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth and enhanced carbonate dissolution in the deep ocean. A switch to obliquity-paced climate variability after 14.7 Ma concurred with a general improvement in carbonate preservation and the onset of stepwise global cooling, culminating with extensive ice growth over Antarctica at ~13.8 Ma (Mi3 event). We find that two massive increases in opal accumulation at ~14.0 and ~13.8 Ma occurred just before and during the final and most prominent cooling step, supporting the hypothesis that increased primary productivity due to enhancement of the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue contributed to CO2 drawdown and promoted global cooling.

Heating and Cooling of Coronal Loops with Turbulent Suppression of Parallel Heat Conduction.

PubMed

Bian, Nicolas; Emslie, A Gordon; Horne, Duncan; Kontar, Eduard P

2018-01-10

Using the "enthalpy-based thermal evolution of loops" (EBTEL) model, we investigate the hydrodynamics of the plasma in a flaring coronal loop in which heat conduction is limited by turbulent scattering of the electrons that transport the thermal heat flux. The EBTEL equations are solved analytically in each of the two (conduction-dominated and radiation-dominated) cooling phases. Comparison of the results with typical observed cooling times in solar flares shows that the turbulent mean free path λ T lies in a range corresponding to a regime in which classical (collision-dominated) conduction plays at most a limited role. We also consider the magnitude and duration of the heat input that is necessary to account for the enhanced values of temperature and density at the beginning of the cooling phase and for the observed cooling times. We find through numerical modeling that in order to produce a peak temperature ≃1.5 × 10 7 K and a 200 s cooling time consistent with observations, the flare-heating profile must extend over a significant period of time; in particular, its lingering role must be taken into consideration in any description of the cooling phase. Comparison with observationally inferred values of post-flare loop temperatures, densities, and cooling times thus leads to useful constraints on both the magnitude and duration of the magnetic energy release in the loop, as well as on the value of the turbulent mean free path λ T .

Cooling Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabian, A.; Murdin, P.

2000-11-01

A subsonic cooling flow occurs when the hot gaseous atmosphere of a galaxy, group or cluster of galaxies cools slowly. Such atmospheres occur as a result of gas having fallen into the DARK MATTER well of the object and heated by gravitational energy release. A dominant cooling process is the emission of radiation by the gas. As cooling proceeds the gas sinks further in the potential well, giving ...

Sequence stratigraphy and environmental background of the late Pleistocene and Holocene occupation in the Southeast Primor'ye (the Russian Far East)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chlachula, Jiri; Krupyanko, Alexander A.

2016-06-01

The paper presents the results of Quaternary palaeoecology and geoarchaeology studies in the Zerkal'naya Basin, with new insights about sequenced natural shifts during the prehistoric occupation of this marginally explored NE Asian maritime territory. The Basin is part of the continental drainage system and the main physiographic and biotic corridor for peopling of the transitive coastal interior SE Primor'ye Region. The Final Pleistocene and Holocene environmental (biotic and abiotic) proxy records from the Upper/Final Palaeolithic to early historical sites document a dynamic climate change with vegetation cover transformations within riverine and mountain valley ecosystems of the Russian Far East. Most of the archaeological sites located on the low terraces and bedrock promontories along the main river channel and its tributary streams suggest traditional hunter gathered lifestyles based on seasonal salmon-fishing supplemented by pastoral economy. Tundra-forests with larch trees, dwarf birch thickets and polypod ferns from the basal stratigraphic units of the late Last Glacial occupation sites associated with the Upper Palaeolithic micro-blade and bifacial stone tool traditions (14C-dated to 19,000-12,000 cal yrs BP) indicate rather pronounced conditions and much lower MAT comparing today. Following a final Pleistocene cooling event, a major climate warming marked the onset of Holocene accompanied by a regional humidity increase promoting the formation of a mixed broadleaved-coniferous oak-dominant taiga, and culminating in the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum. The appearance of mosaic parklands ca. 5,000-4,000 cal yrs BP. may be partly attributed to the expansion of the Far Eastern Neolithic cultures practicing forest clearance for pastures and dwellings. A progressing landscape opening indicated by the spread of light-demanding thickets and birch-dominated riverine biotopes with Artemisia suggests a further vegetation cover transformation during the late Neolithic and the early Palaeo-Metal (Bronze Age) periods. This trend corroborates the documented climate deterioration between 3,400 and 2,600 cal yrs BP, causing a regional aridification with a parkland-steppe broadening in the main SE Primor'ye river valleys. The late Holocene climate development persisted until the Little Ice Age which led to formation of the present settlement ecosystems with mixed (oak/cedar/fir-dominated) temperate maritime woodlands.

Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, S.; Böhner, J.; Lucarini, V.

2015-03-01

Largely depending on meltwater from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus basin (UIB) contribute to half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, we present a comprehensive hydro-climatic trend analysis over the UIB, including for the first time observations from high-altitude automated weather stations. We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012), and separately, from six stations of their long term record (1961-2012). We apply Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series to assess existence of a trend while true slope is estimated using Sen's slope method. Further, we statistically assess the spatial scale (field) significance of local climatic trends within ten identified sub-regions of UIB and analyze whether the spatially significant (field significant) climatic trends qualitatively agree with a trend in discharge out of corresponding sub-region. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find a well agreed and mostly field significant cooling (warming) during monsoon season i.e. July-October (March-May and November), which is higher in magnitude relative to long term trends (1961-2012). We also find general cooling in Tx and a mixed response in Tavg during the winter season and a year round decrease in DTR, which are in direct contrast to their long term trends. The observed decrease in DTR is stronger and more significant at high altitude stations (above 2200 m a.s.l.), and mostly due to higher cooling in Tx than in Tn. Moreover, we find a field significant decrease (increase) in late-monsoonal precipitation for lower (higher) latitudinal regions of Himalayas (Karakoram and Hindukush), whereas an increase in winter precipitation for Hindukush, western- and whole Karakoram, UIB-Central, UIB-West, UIB-West-upper and whole UIB regions. We find a spring warming (field significant in March) and drying (except for Karakoram and its sub-regions), and subsequent rise in early-melt season flows. Such early melt response together with effective cooling during monsoon period subsequently resulted in a substantial drop (weaker increase) in discharge out of higher (lower) latitudinal regions (Himalaya and UIB-West-lower) during late-melt season, particularly during July. These discharge tendencies qualitatively differ to their long term trends for all regions, except for UIB-West-upper, western-Karakorum and Astore. The observed hydroclimatic trends, being driven by certain changes in the monsoonal system and westerly disturbances, indicate dominance (suppression) of nival (glacial) runoff regime, altering substantially the overall hydrology of UIB in future. These findings largely contribute to address the hydroclimatic explanation of the "Karakoram Anomaly".

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon systems outside of Asia. These results indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant climate impacts against a background of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, and thus represent a key source of uncertainty in near-term climate projection that should be seriously considered in future climate assessments.

Holocene Climate Change in Sub-Alpine Southwestern Alberta: Evidence from Oxygen and Carbon Isotope values of Hogarth Lake Marl.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matkowski, D.; Patterson, W. P.; Timsic, S.

2017-12-01

A 3.6-meter lake sediment core was recovered from Upper Hogarth Lake, providing proxy evidence for climate variability over the last 11,500 years. The core was sampled at millimeter scale for high-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope values. Large variations (up to 6‰) in the carbon isotope values are attributed to the increasingly dominant role of terrestrial-sourced organic matter over bedrock-sourced DIC during initial lake formation and subsequent changes in regional humidity. Variations (up to 4‰) in oxygen isotope values of the marl are interpreted as representing changes in meteoric water source and regional temperature. The hydrologically-open, fresh-water lake is hosted in Devonian-Carboniferous carbonates, recharged via groundwater, surface flow and precipitation. Marl sediment is generated by the green algae Chara sp., with marl deposition beginning approximately 11,500 cal yBP. Our age model was constructed using tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating of 8 terrestrial plant samples, then calibrated using the University of Minnesota's "Bacon" software. The presence of an ash layer in the core was associated with the Mazama ash layer dated 7,627 ±150 yBP, and was used to support the 14C age model. Sediment deposition is characterized by 3 stages: from the recent, dating back to 11,500 cal yBP, the core is marl dominated, comprising 70% of the 3.6m core. Prior to marl deposition there is a 500-year depositional period of carbonate and allochthonous clastic material. Below 2.65 meters, the sediment consists of fine sand and mud; sourced from the weathering of surrounding bedrock. Isotope data are characterized by 5 distinct periods. 7,800 cal yBP to the end Younger Dryas ( 11,500 cal yBP) exhibits irregular, and generally decreasing, δ13C and δ18O values, with a positive excursion in δ18O values occurring around 9,000 cal yBP. Climate was stable, cool and dry from 5,000-7,000 cal yBP, evidenced by relatively invariant δ13C and δ18O values. The period from 3,000-5,000 cal yBP exhibits decreasing δ13C values and increasing δ18O values, suggesting regional climate warming, possibly accompanied by an increase in humidity. From 3,000 cal yBP to the present, δ13C and δ18O values coincidently decrease, suggesting an increase in regional humidity along with a general cooling trend.

Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

PubMed Central

Baldini, James U.L.; Brown, Richard J.; McElwaine, Jim N.

2015-01-01

The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events. PMID:26616338

Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

PubMed

Baldini, James U L; Brown, Richard J; McElwaine, Jim N

2015-11-30

The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events.

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO2 and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Chou, Ming-Dah

1993-01-01

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

PubMed

Yu, Shaocai; Alapaty, Kiran; Mathur, Rohit; Pleim, Jonathan; Zhang, Yuanhang; Nolte, Chris; Eder, Brian; Foley, Kristen; Nagashima, Tatsuya

2014-11-06

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed "warming hole" can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

Ice ages and geomagnetic reversals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Patrick

1992-01-01

There have been speculations on the relationship between climatic cooling and polarity reversals of the earth's magnetic field during the Pleistocene. Two of the common criticisms on this relationship have been the reality of these short duration geomagnetic events and the accuracy of their dates. Champion et al. (1988) have reviewed recent progress in this area. They identified a total of 10 short-duration polarity events in the last 1 Ma and 6 of these events have been found in volcanic rocks, which also have K-Ar dates. Supposing that the speculated relationship between climatic cooling and geomagnetic reversals actually exist, two mechanisms that assume climatic cooling causes short period magnetic reversals will be investigated. These two methods are core-mantle boundary topography and transfer of the rotational energy to the core.

Inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet using asynchronous coupling of a regional atmospheric model and an ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birch, L.; Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.

2017-12-01

The climate over the past 0.8 million years has been dominated by ice ages. Ice sheets have grown about every 100 kyrs, starting from warm interglacials, until they spanned continents. State-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, or the transition of Earth's climate from an interglacial to a glacial state. It has been suggested that this failure may be related to their poorly resolved local mountain topography, due to their coarse spatial resolution. We examine this idea as well as the possible role of ice flow dynamics missing in GCMs. We investigate the growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at 115 kya by focusing on the mountain glaciers of Canada's Baffin Island, where geologic evidence indicates the last inception occurred. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) in a regional, cloud-resolving configuration with resolved mountain terrain to explore how quickly Baffin Island could become glaciated with the favorable yet realizable conditions of 115 kya insolation, cool summers, and wet winters. Using the model-derived mountain glacier mass balance, we force an ice sheet model based on the shallow-ice approximation, capturing the ice flow that may be critical to the spread of ice sheets away from mountain ice caps. The ice sheet model calculates the surface area newly covered by ice and the change in the ice surface elevation, which we then use to run WRF again. Through this type of iterated asynchronous coupling, we investigate how the regional climate responds to both larger areas of ice cover and changes in ice surface elevation. In addition, we use the NOAH-MP Land model to characterize the importance of land processes, like refreezing. We find that initial ice growth on the Penny Ice Cap causes regional cooling that increases the accumulation on the Barnes Ice Cap. We investigate how ice and topography changes on Baffin Island may impact both the regional climate and the large-scale circulation.

Impacts of different aerosol climatologies on the European climate during the last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultze, Markus; Rockel, Burkhardt

2015-04-01

As summarized in the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, the effects of aerosols on the Earth's energy budget are one of the largest uncertainties in a changing climate. Despite a better understanding of aerosol processes since the previous report, it remains unclear to which degree of complexity these processes need to be represented within the climate models to consider their effects in a sufficient manner. Within the nonhydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the aerosol climatology of Tanre from 1984 is widely used to simulate the direct effect of aerosols on radiative processes. Apart from a very low spatial resolution and a missing temporal variability, this climatology is dominated by high values of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over Northern Africa, caused by an overestimation of Saharan dust. To investigate the impacts of different aerosol distributions on the European climate, the Tanre aerosol climatology is replaced by the more realistic climatologies of Tegen from 1997 and AEROCOM from 2006 with constant annual cycles of AOD. In addition a control simulation without any aerosol feedbacks was performed. The simulations cover a period of 30 years from 1980 to 2010. In parts of the regions surveyed, we found a near surface cooling, which is strongly linked to AOD, and a broad mid-troposphere warming for all simulations in comparison to the control simulation. A decrease in convective precipitation is mainly caused by stabilization of stratification and by less evapotranspiration resulting from surface cooling. The horizontal differing mid-troposphere warming induces a drop in surface pressure and therefore leads to changes in circulation patterns which are still under investigation. The largest impacts of direct and semi direct aerosol effects was found in summer season. As next step, pre-calculated transient aerosol data will be used to compile an up-to-date aerosol climatology including temporal changes. One main focus of the study will be to investigate whether a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol load in Europe during the last decades enhances the GHG induced near surface warming.

Understanding the drivers of post-fire albedo and radiative forcing across Alaska and Canada: implications for management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, S.; Solvik, K.; Erb, A.; Goetz, S. J.; Johnstone, J. F.; Mack, M. C.; Randerson, J. T.; Roman, M. O.; Schaaf, C. L.; Turetsky, M. R.; Veraverbeke, S.; Wang, Z.; Rogers, B. M.

2017-12-01

Boreal forest dynamics including succession, composition, carbon cycling, and surface-atmosphere energy exchanges are largely driven by fire. In Alaska and Canada, burned area and fire frequency have increased since the 1970s, and are projected to continue increasing into the 21st century. In contrast to other biomes, alterations to surface albedo from fires in North American boreal forests are one of the primary feedbacks to climate. Understanding how altered fire regimes impact vegetation composition and energy budgets is therefore critical to forecasting regional and global climate change. High-severity fires cause winter and spring albedo to increase due to increased snow exposure and replacement of evergreen conifers by deciduous broadleaf trees. Although summer albedo decreases initially due to the deposition of black carbon and charred surfaces, it typically increases for several decades thereafter when younger and brighter deciduous trees dominate. The net effect of these albedo changes is expected to result in substantive radiative cooling, but there has been little research to examine how albedo trajectories differ spatially and temporally as a result of differences in burn severity, species composition, topography, climate and soil properties, and what the associated implications for future energy balances are. Here we investigate drivers of post-fire monthly albedo trajectories across Canada and Alaska using a new Collection V006 500 m MODIS daily blue-sky albedo product and historical fires from the Canadian and Alaskan National Fire Databases. The impacts of varying fuel type, landscape position, soils, climate, and burn severity on monthly albedo trajectories are explored using a Random Forest model. This information is then used to predict long-term monthly albedo and radiative forcing for fires that occurred during the MODIS era (2001-2012). We find that higher severity burns in denser forests and environmental conditions that promote either deciduous vegetation or slower tree growth result in the largest increases in post fire albedo and radiative cooling. This understanding and our geospatial products may be relevant for management focused on limiting the climate impacts from intensifying boreal fire regimes.

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Severity of climate change dictates the direction of biophysical feedbacks of vegetation change to Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxin; Jansson, Christer; Miller, Paul; Smith, Ben; Samuelsson, Patrick

2014-05-01

Vegetation-climate feedbacks induced by vegetation dynamics under climate change alter biophysical properties of the land surface that regulate energy and water exchange with the atmosphere. Simulations with Earth System Models applied at global scale suggest that the current warming in the Arctic has been amplified, with large contributions from positive feedbacks, dominated by the effect of reduced surface albedo as an increased distribution, cover and taller stature of trees and shrubs mask underlying snow, darkening the surface. However, these models generally employ simplified representation of vegetation dynamics and structure and a coarse grid resolution, overlooking local or regional scale details determined by diverse vegetation composition and landscape heterogeneity. In this study, we perform simulations using an advanced regional coupled vegetation-climate model (RCA-GUESS) applied at high resolution (0.44×0.44° ) over the Arctic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Arctic) domain. The climate component (RCA4) is forced with lateral boundary conditions from EC-EARTH CMIP5 simulations for three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Vegetation-climate response is simulated by the individual-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), accounting for phenology, physiology, demography and resource competition of individual-based vegetation, and feeding variations of leaf area index and vegetative cover fraction back to the climate component, thereby adjusting surface properties and surface energy fluxes. The simulated 2m air temperature, precipitation, vegetation distribution and carbon budget for the present period has been evaluated in another paper. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the biophysical feedbacks arising from vegetation shifts in response to different CO2 concentration pathways and their associated climate change. Our results indicate that the albedo feedback dominates simulated warming in spring in all three scenarios, while in summer, evapotranspiration feedback, governing the partitioning of the return energy flux from the surface to the atmosphere into latent and sensible heat, exerts evaporative cooling effects, the magnitude of which depends on the severity of climate change, in turn driven by the underlying GHG emissions pathway, resulting in shift in the sign of net biophysical at higher levels of warming. Spatially, western Siberia is identified as the most susceptible location, experiencing the potential to reverse biophysical feedbacks in all seasons. We further analyze how the pattern of vegetation shifts triggers different signs of net effects of biophysical feedbacks.

Berkeley Lab's Cool Your School Program

ScienceCinema

Brady, Susan; Gilbert, Haley; McCarthy, Robert

2018-02-02

Cool Your School is a series of 6th-grade, classroom-based, science activities rooted in Berkeley Lab's cool-surface and cool materials research and aligned with California science content standards. The activities are designed to build knowledge, stimulate curiosity, and carry the conversation about human-induced climate change, and what can be done about it, into the community.

Solar heating and cooling: Technical data and systems analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, D. L.

1975-01-01

The solar energy research is reported including climatic data, architectural data, heating and cooling equipment, thermal loads, and economic data. Lists of data sources presented include: selected data sources for solar energy heating and cooling; bibliography of solar energy, and other energy sources; sources for manufacturing and sales, solar energy collectors; and solar energy heating and cooling projects.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change

PubMed Central

Reyna, Janet L.; Chester, Mikhail V.

2017-01-01

Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41–87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand. PMID:28504255

Solar activities and Climate change hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hady, A. A., II

2014-12-01

Throughout the geological history of Earth, climate change is one of the recurrent natural hazards. In recent history, the impact of man brought about additional climatic change. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary, both solar activities and building-up of green-house gases effect added to the climatic changes. This paper discusses if the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the Modern Dalton Minimum (MDM) which stated that starting from year 2005 for the next 40 years; the earth's surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum (c. 210 y ago), will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that now we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years. Keywords: Solar activities; solar cycles; palaeoclimatic changes; Global cooling; Modern Dalton Minimum.

Climate Effect of Greenhouse Gas: Warming or Cooling is Determined by Temperature Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shia, R.

2011-12-01

The instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) is the initial change of the total energy in the climate system when the concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases. In my previous presentation at the 2010 Fall AGU meeting (A11J-02, "Mechanism of Radiative Forcing of Greenhouse Gas its Implication to the Global Warming"), it was demonstrated that IRF at TOA is generated by moving up of the emission weighting function. Thus, the temperature gradient plays a critical role in determining the climate effect of GHG. In this presentation the change of the outgoing infrared radiation flux at ToA is studied from a perturbation point of view. After the cancellation between the changes in the outgoing radiation flux from the surface emission and from the reemission of the atmosphere, the derivative of the outgoing flux to the concentration of GHG is found to be proportional to the temperature gradients below the level where the concentration of GHG changes. Therefore, the greenhouse gas contribute only to the magnitude of the radiative forcing, the temperature gradients decide the direction of the radiative forcing, i.e. warming or cooling, in addition to contributing to its magnitude. In response to the question "Does the negative IRF at ToA lead to the surface cooling or it only cools the upper part of the atmosphere?" the Eddington grey radiative equilibrium model is modified to simulate different scenarios. The original model has been used to illustrate the warming effect of GHG in textbooks of the atmospheric physics. It is modified by adding source terms from the absorption of the solar flux and the internal energy exchange in the atmosphere. In two cases the modified model generates atmospheres with a large and warm stratosphere and negative IRF at ToA when GHG increases by 25%. This negative radiative forcing can lead to the cooling of the atmosphere all the way down to the surface. The implications of the cooling effect of GHG to the climate change, including paleoclimatology and the prerequests for climate models to include cooling effect of GHG properly are discussed.

Sea-level Change during Hothouse, Cool Greenhouse, and Icehouse Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, K. G.; Browning, J. V.; Wright, J. D.

2015-12-01

Comparison of sea level and climate proxies shows fundamentally different causes and responses (periods, amplitudes, rates) for Myr scale sea-level changes in Hothouse, Cool Greenhouse, and Icehouse worlds. Peak warmth of the past 100 million years was achieved in the Hothouse intervals of the Cenomanian-Santonian (ca. 100-80 Ma) and early Eocene (56-50 Ma). Hothouse global average sea level falls of ~15 m are associated with d18O increases that reflect primarily high latitude cooling and may reflect the growth of small ice sheets in elevated regions of Antarctica. However, these purported Hothouse ice sheets are at or below the detection level of the d18O proxy (15 m ≤ 0.15‰), and it is possible that changes in groundwater storage ('limnoeustasy') could have caused these falls. Cool greenhouse (Campanian to Paleocene, middle to late Eocene) sea-level changes of 15-25 m were caused by growth and decay of small (25-35% of modern) ice sheets, pacing sea-level change on an apparent 2.4 Myr long eccentricity cycle, likely modulating 405 and 100 kyr cycles. Icehouse (past 33.8 Myr) sea-level and ice-volume changes were paced by the 1.2 Myr tilt cycle, with alternating states of 41 and 100 kyr dominance. Warm periods in the Icehouse displayed different sea-level responses. During the largely unipolar Icehouse of the Oligocene to early Miocene, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) was not permanently developed, with intervals of large-scale (~40-55 m sea level equivalent) growth and collapse. During peak warmth of the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO; ~17-15 Ma) ice volume changes were small (generally <20 m) and paced by the 100 kyr cycle. A permanent EAIS developed following 3 middle Miocene d18O increases (14.7, 13.8, and 13.2 Ma) that were largely cooling events associated with <40 m sea-level falls; the subsequent late Miocene EAIS displayed lower amplitude (~20-30 m) sea-level variations. Despite only moderate atmospheric CO2 levels (400±50 ppm), during the peak warmth interval of the Pliocene, sea levels were only 22±10 m above present (most likely 12-22 m) requiring loss of Greenland, West Antarctica, and small part of EAIS (likely the Wilkes Basin).

Changing feedbacks in the climate-biosphere system

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin; James T. Randerson; A. David McGuire; Jonathan A. Foley; Christopher B. Field

2008-01-01

Ecosystems influence climate through multiple pathways, primarily by changing the energy, water, and greenhouse-gas balance of the atmosphere. Consequently, efforts to mitigate climate change through modification of one pathway, as with carbon in the Kyoto Protocol, only partially address the issue of ecosystem-climate interactions. For example, the cooling of climate...

Thermal pollution consequences of the implementation of the president's energy message on increased coal utilization.

PubMed Central

Parker, F L

1979-01-01

The thermal consequences of coal utilization are most meaningfully assessed in comparison with the form of power generation replaced by coal which is most likely nuclear. The different effects are influenced by siting decisions and the intrinsic thermal efficiencies of the two fuel systems. Nuclear power plants discharge 50% more waste Rheat to the atmosphere through cooling towers or to a water body than coal-fired plants. Coal-fired plants require about 2/3 as much water as nuclear power plants. Nearly every property of water is affected nonlinearly by temperature, and biological effects may amplify these changes because protein denaturation takes place more rapidly above 30 degrees C and these high temperatures affect bactericidal and viricidal activity of chlorine compounds. Usually algal populations change from a dominance of diatoms and green algae to dominance by blue-green algae. All organisms experience elevated metabolic rates at higher temperatures which may affect total energy needs, foraging ability, reproduction, migration and susceptibility to disease. Intake structures inevitably draw many organisms into the cooling system of a power plant, but the number and kind are influenced by its location, configuration, and mode of operation. Use of water recirculation systems reduces water use and with it, the number of organisms entrained. Mechanical damage in the cooling system to small organisms is generally low, but fish and their larvae and eggs may be seriously damaged. Discharge effects may also be severe but are generally local. The near field, where there are strong shear velocities and rapid temperature changes are particularly stressful to fish, and stringent limitations on the timing and strength of discharges may be required to reduce these stresses to nondamaging levels. Off-stream cooling systems may increase cloudiness, ground fog, precipitation, temperature and local winds, but these effects generally extend no further than 1000 m even in winter. There is considerable potential for using condenser cooling water for agricultural and aquacultural purposes such as irrigation, frost protection, undersoil heating, greenhouse heating and climate control. However, over the next few decades little of this waste heat is likely to be used creatively. The thermal consequences of implementing NEP are locally serious but do not pose regional problems. Creative use of the waste heat for aquaculture, agriculture, cogeneration, and power for energy intensive industries can be a powerful means of mitigating undesirable effects. PMID:540623

Implications of recent research on microstructure modifications, through heat-related processing and trait alteration to bio-functions, molecular thermal stability and mobility, metabolic characteristics and nutrition in cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds with advanced molecular techniques.

PubMed

Ying, Yuguang; Zhang, Huihua; Yu, Peiqiang

2018-02-16

The cutting-edge synchrotron radiation based and globar-sourced vibrational infrared microspectroscopy have recently been developed. These novel techniques are able to reveal structure features at cellular and molecular levels with the tested tissues being intact. However, to date, the advanced techniques are unfamiliar or unknown to food and feed scientists and have not been used to study the molecular structure changes in cool-climate cereal grain seeds and other types of bio-oil and bioenergy seeds. This article aims to provide some recent research in cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds on molecular structures and metabolic characteristics of carbohydrate and protein, and implication of microstructure modification through heat-related processing and trait alteration to bio-functions, molecular thermal stability and mobility, and nutrition with advanced molecular techniques- synchrotron radiation based and globar-sourced vibrational infrared microspectroscopy in the areas of (1) Inherent microstructure of cereal grain seeds; (2) The nutritional values of cereal grains; (3) Impact and modification of heat-related processing to cereal grain; (4) Conventional nutrition evaluation methodology; (5) Synchrotron radiation-based and globar-sourced vibrational (micro)-spectroscopy for molecular structure study and molecular thermal stability and mobility, and (6) Recent molecular spectroscopic technique applications in research on raw, traits altered and processed cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds. The information described in this article gives better insights of research progress and update in cool-climate cereal grains and other seeds with advanced molecular techniques.

Response of diatoms and silicoflagellates to climate change in the Santa Barbara Basin during the past 250 years and the rise of the toxic diatom Pseudo-nitzschia australis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, John A.; Bukry, David; Field, David B.; Finney, Bruce

2013-01-01

Diatoms and silicoflagellate assemblages were examined in two year-increments of varved samples spanning the interval from 1748 through 2007 in Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) box core SBBC0806 to determine the timing and impact of possible 20th century warming on several different components of the plankton. Diatoms (Thalassionema nitzschioides =TN) and silicoflagellates (Distephanus speculum s.l. =DS) indicative of cooler waters and a shallow thermocline begin to decline in the 1920s and persistently compose a lower percentage of the assemblage in the SBB by about 1940. Prior to 1940, TN constituted on average ~30% of the Chaetoceros-free diatom sediment assemblage and DS on average ~36% of the silicoflagellate assemblage. Between 1940 and 1996 these relative abundances were ~20% (TN) and ~8% (DS). These results are consistent with results from planktonic foraminifera and radiolarians that indicate an influence of 20th century warming on marine ecosystems before most scientific observations began. Cooling of surface waters coincident with the one of the strongest La Niña events of the 20th century (and a return to negative PDO conditions) in late 1998 brought about a return to pre-1940 values of these cool water taxa (TN ~31%, DS ~25%). However, this recent regional cooling appears to have been accompanied by profound changes in the diatom assemblage. Pseudo-nitzschia australis, and Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, diatom species associated with domoic acid, a neurotoxin that causes shellfish poisoning and marine mammal deaths, rapidly became dominant in the SBB sediment record at the time of the regional cooling (1999) and increased substantially in numbers as a bloom-forming taxon (relative to Chaetoceros spores) in 2003. Prior to 2003 diatom blooms recorded in the SBB sediment record consisted predominantly of Chaetoceros spores and less commonly of Rhizosolenia-related species (Neocalyptrella robusta and R. setigera). Fecal pellets dominated by valves of P. australis, however, were particularly abundant in both the 2003 and 2006 samples, coincident with recorded incidents of domoic acid increase and widespread shellfish poisoning in the SBB.

Sporo-pollen assemblage and paleoclimate events in shelf area of the southern Yellow Sea since 15 ka B. P.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Guanglan; Han, Yousong; Wang, Shaoqing; Wang, Zhenyan

2004-03-01

Based on the authors’ 1986 to 1994 sporo-pollen assemblage analysis in the southern Yellow Sea area, data from 3 main cores were studied in combination with14C, palaeomagnetic and thermoluminescence data. The evolution of the paleoclimate environments in the southern Yellow Sea since 15ka B. P. was revealed that, in deglaciation of the last glacial period, the climate of late glaciation transformed into that of postglaciation, accompanied by a series of violent climate fluctuations. These evolution events happened in a global climate background and related to the geographic changes in eastern China. We distinguished three short-term cooling events and two warming events. Among them, the sporo-pollen assemblage of subzone A1 showed some cold climate features indicating that a cooling event occurred at about 15-14ka. B. P. in early deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Oldest Dryas. In subzone A3, many drought-enduring herbal pollens and some few pollens of cold-resistant Picea, Abies, etc. were found, which indicated that a cooling event, with cold and arid climate, occurred at about 12-11ka. B. P. in late deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Younger Dryas. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone B showed warm and arid climate features in postglaciation. Although the assemblage of subzone B2 indicated a cold and arid climate environment, the development of flora in subzone B2 climate was less cold than that in A3. Subzone B2 indicated a cooling event which occurred at about 9ka B. P. in early olocene. Subzone A2, with some distinct differences from subzone A1 and A3, indicated a warming event which occurred at 14-13ka. B.P. and should correspond to a warming fluctuation. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone C showed features of warn-moist flora and climate, and indicated a warming event which universally occurred along the coast of eastern China at 8-3 ka B. P. in middle Holocene, and its duration was longer than that of any climate events mentioned above. This period was climatic optimum and belonged to an altithermal period in postglaciation.

Cool Science: Year 2 of Using Children's Artwork about Climate Change to Engage Riders on Mass Transit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.

2014-12-01

A team of educators and scientists from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and the University of Massachusetts Boston will report on the second year of an informal science learning research project using mass transit spaces in Lowell, MA. Cool Science (CS) conducts a statewide art competition for K-12 students in the fall challenging them to express climate science understanding through the visual arts. An inter-disciplinary panel of judges evaluates entries and identifies the top 24 works of art. The best six student works of art are then put on public display throughout the spring on the Lowell Regional Transit Authority (LRTA). Displaying student artwork in Out of Home Multi-Media (OHMM) such as bus placards and posters is intended to engage riders with opportunities to learn informally. CS aims to promote and evaluate learning about climate change science among the general public and k-12 students/teachers. The goals of CS are: 1) Engage teachers, students, and parents in a climate change science communication competition. 2) Display the winning 6 artworks from K-12 students throughout the LRTA. 3) Assess the impact of Cool Science on the teaching and learning of climate science in K-12 formal education. 4) Assess the impact of Cool Science artwork on attitudes, awareness, and understanding of climate change among adult bus riders. A naturalistic inquiry employing a mixed methodology approach best describes our research design. The evaluation focuses on providing feedback regarding the potential learning outcomes for the K-12 students who create the media for the project and the general riding public who engage with the student artwork. To identify possible outcomes, data was collected in the several forms: survey, interviews, and online analytics. We see an urgent need to improve both the public's engagement with climate change science and to the profile of climate change science in formal education settings. The Cool Science (CS) project is an opportunity to bring formal and informal science learning settings together for mutual engagement in the science of climate change. The research that will be presented should be of interest to both informal and formal science educators, art and science educators, and environmental education advocates.

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

PubMed Central

Ackerly, David D.; Cornwell, William K.; Weiss, Stuart B.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2015-01-01

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions. PMID:26115485

Plasticity in Dendroclimatic Response across the Distribution Range of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis)

PubMed Central

de Luis, Martin; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Novak, Klemen; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Raventós, José; Saz, Miguel Angel; Smith, Kevin T.

2013-01-01

We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships. PMID:24391786

The Effectiveness of Taiwan Building Energy Regulation under the influence of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Yu-Teng; Huang, Kuo-Tsang

2017-04-01

Building energy consumption comprises circa 40% of the national annual energy usage in Taiwan, and the majority proportion is attributed to the cooling apparatus usage. As cooling energy is closely related to the outdoor climate, it is expected that the future global climate change would amplify its demand. Considering the building energy regulation criteria are the minimum requirements that the building has to be complied with, this study tried to investigate whether the current building energy regulation in Taiwan, initiated in 2013, would still be capable of maintaining the energy use in the future as today's level. The research adopted EnergyPlus to simulate the annual cooling energy use of several virtual office building cases with the constructed hourly future weather data under future climate change scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 defined by IPCC. The virtual building cases are generated by a structured orthogonal array with each case is constituted by 10 building design parameters. The results revealed that the building energy consumption based on the current regulation criteria failed to maintain at the same level in the future as oppose to nowadays. By comparing to the current cooling energy usage, it would rise by 13% and 22% in RCP45 and RCP85, respectively, at the end of this century. This research further parametrically studied the potential cooling energy mitigation strategies and proposed effective building envelope design schemes in order to neutralize the future building energy increase.

Selective cooling on land supports cloud formation by cosmic ray during geomagnetic reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitaba, I.; Hyodo, M.; Nakagawa, T.; Katoh, S.; Dettman, D. L.; Sato, H.

2017-12-01

On geological time scales, the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux at the Earth's surface has increased significantly during many short time intervals. There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that climatic cooling occurred during these episodes. Cloud formation by GCR has been claimed as the most likely cause of the linkage. However, the mechanism is not fully understood due to the difficulty of accurately estimating the amount of cloud cover in the geologic past. Our study focused on the geomagnetic field and climate in East Asia. The Earth's magnetic field provides a shield against GCR. The East Asian climate reflects the temperature balance between the Eurasian landmass and the Pacific Ocean that drives monsoon circulation.Two geomagnetic polarity reversals occurred at 780 ka and 1,070 ka. At these times the geomagnetic field decreased to about 10% of its present level causing a near doubling of the GCR flux. Temperature and rainfall amounts during these episodes were reconstructed using pollen in sediment cores from Osaka Bay, Japan. The results show a more significant temperature drop on the Eurasian continent than over the Pacific, and a decrease of summer rainfall in East Asia (i.e. a weakening of East Asian summer monsoon). These observed climate changes can be accounted for if the landmasses were more strongly cooled than the oceans. The simplest mechanism behind such asymmetric cooling is the so-called `umbrella effect' (increased cloud cover blocking solar radiation) that induces greater cooling of objects with smaller heat capacities.

Effect of climate-ocean changes on the abundance of Pacific saury.

PubMed

Gong, Yeong; Suh, Young Sang

2013-01-01

Effects of ocean climate changes on the population structure and abundance of Pacific saury (Cololabis sira) were investigated on the basis of climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, catch and body size information from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region (Yellow Sea, East China Sea and East/Japan Sea) during the period 1950-2010. It is suggested that oceanic regime shifts in the early 1970s, late 1980s and late 1990s occurred in the TWC region in winter, but the regime shifts in the mid-1970s and in the late 1980s were not evident in the spring SST anomaly series. The abundance and body size of Pacific saury fluctuated in association with the winter oceanic changes in the TWC region. The catch rates and abundance of large size saury were far bellow average during their northward migrations in the TWC region in the years with abnormally cool winters (e.g., 1963, 1970, 1977, 1981-1989 and 2006) and above average in the years with warm winters. These patterns demonstrate decadal-scale variations together with large inter-annual fluctuations in the structure and abundance of Pacific saury in association with the climatic-oceanic changes. These results, along with an alternation of dominant pelagic fish species, indicate the status of the saury population in the TWC region is in good condition, similar to that in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC) region during the warm regime after the late 1980s climate regime shift.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, Dongmei, E-mail: dmdeng@shu.edu.cn, E-mail: dyu@ansto.gov.au, E-mail: jczhang@staff.shu.edu.cn; Feng, Zhenjie; Jing, Chao

Cooling magnetic field dependence of magnetic phase transition has been observed in Y{sub 0.9}Pr{sub 0.1}CrO{sub 3}. G{sub z}F{sub x} order (spin structure of PrCrO{sub 3}) is dominant after zero field cooling (ZFC), whereas G{sub x}F{sub z} order (spin structure of YCrO{sub 3}) is dominant after cooling under a field higher than 100 Oe. Positive/negative exchange bias-like effect, with large vertical shift and small horizontal shift, has been observed after FC/ZFC process. The vertical shift can be attributed to the frozen ordered Pr{sup 3+} and Cr{sup 3+} spins in magnetic domains, because of the strong coupling between Pr{sup 3+} and Cr{sup 3+}more » sublattices; while the horizontal shift is a result of the pinning of spins at the interfaces. The frozen structure is generated by the field used for the measurement of the initial magnetization curve of M(H) for the ZFC cooled sample, while it is generated by the cooling field for the sample cooled under a cooling field higher than 100 Oe.« less

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

Rapid Vegetational Change in Coastal North America: The Response to Climate Since the LGM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peteet, Dorothy; Kneller, Margaret

1999-01-01

The late-glacial interval provided rapid shifts in climate which are mirrored by dramatic vegetational changes in North America. Through a transect of lake and mire sites from Connecticut to Virginia on the east coast and Kodiak Island on the western coast, we trace the warming following the LGM with the response of forests and tundra. A brief cold reversal in Virginia is seen from 12,260 to 12,200. The subsequent longer and extreme Younger Dryas event is marked in the southern New England - New Jersey region by dramatic boreal and deciduous forest changes. In the southeastern US, forests also change rapidly, with hemlock forest expansion suggesting increased moisture. In Kodiak Island, the warm, moist tundra of the Bolling/Allerod is replaced by colder, windswept Empetrum-dominated tundra during the Younger Dryas. The Pleistocene/Holocene shift in vegetation is remarkably pronounced in eastern North America as well as the Alaskan coastline. Response time of vegetation to climate change appears to be on the order of decades throughout these coastal locations, probably because of the proximity of sites to important ecotonal boundaries, and the magnitude of the events. Even in Virginia's Holocene record, a cold reversal inferred from increases in spruce and fir is noted at 7500 C14 yr BP. This response of the forests to a short-lived cooling shows the sensitivity of the biosphere to a rapid climate shifts.

Late Eocene obliquity domination and impact of the Eocene/Oligocene climate transition on central Asian climate at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Guoqiao; Abels, Hemmo A.; Yao, Zhengquan; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume; Hilgen, Frederik J.

2010-05-01

At the boundary between the Eocene and Oligocene epochs, approximately 34 million years ago (Ma), the Earth experienced a significant change from a greenhouse world to an icehouse world. The present understanding of the triggering mechanisms, processes and environmental effects of this climatic event is mostly based upon ocean sediment records and climatic modeling results. Terrestrial records of the critical interval are rare and, where available, often poorly constrained in time. Here, we present a continuous continental record (Tashan section) from the Xining basin at the northeastern edge of Tibetan Plateau, covering the period between ~35 to 33 Ma. Lithology supplemented with high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS), median grain size (MGS) and color reflectance (a*) records show clear Late Eocene basic cyclicity of ~3.5 m in length. Our detailed magnetostratigraphic age model indicates that this cycle was most likely forced by the 41-kyr obliquity cycle driving drier and wetter periods in northern hemisphere Asian interior climates already 1 million year before the Eocene-Oligocene Climate Transition (EOCT). Detailed comparison of the E/O boundary interval in the Tashan section with marine records show that the most pronounced lithofacies change in the Xining Basin corresponds to the first of two widely recognized steps in oxygen isotopes making up the EOCT. This first step is reported to precede the major and second step (base of the Oi-1 phase) by around 0.2 to 0.3 Myr and has recently been suggested to be mainly related to atmospheric cooling rather than ice volume growth.

Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures.

PubMed

Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Kyle, G Page; Morgan, M Granger; Patel, Pralit; Liu, Lu

2016-11-15

This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3-7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% over the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35-40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States

PubMed Central

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981–2010) and future (2080–2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making. PMID:26238673

Response of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone to global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene Oligocene Transition

PubMed Central

Hyeong, Kiseong; Kuroda, Junichiro; Seo, Inah; Wilson, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Approximately 34 million years ago across the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT), Earth’s climate tipped from a largely unglaciated state into one that sustained large ice sheets on Antarctica. Antarctic glaciation is attributed to a threshold response to slow decline in atmospheric CO2 but our understanding of the feedback processes triggered and of climate change on the other contents is limited. Here we present new geochemical records of terrigenous dust accumulating on the sea floor across the EOT from a site in the central equatorial Pacific. We report a change in dust chemistry from an Asian affinity to a Central-South American provenance that occurs geologically synchronously with the initiation of stepwise global cooling, glaciation of Antarctica and aridification on the northern continents. We infer that the inter-tropical convergence zone of intense precipitation extended to our site during late Eocene, at least four degrees latitude further south than today, but that it migrated northwards in step with global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation. Our findings point to an atmospheric teleconnection between extratropical cooling and rainfall climate in the tropics and the mid-latitude belt of the westerlies operating across the most pivotal transition in climate state of the Cenozoic Era. PMID:27507793

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

PubMed

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-08-04

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.

Response of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone to global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene Oligocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyeong, Kiseong; Kuroda, Junichiro; Seo, Inah; Wilson, Paul A.

2016-08-01

Approximately 34 million years ago across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), Earth’s climate tipped from a largely unglaciated state into one that sustained large ice sheets on Antarctica. Antarctic glaciation is attributed to a threshold response to slow decline in atmospheric CO2 but our understanding of the feedback processes triggered and of climate change on the other contents is limited. Here we present new geochemical records of terrigenous dust accumulating on the sea floor across the EOT from a site in the central equatorial Pacific. We report a change in dust chemistry from an Asian affinity to a Central-South American provenance that occurs geologically synchronously with the initiation of stepwise global cooling, glaciation of Antarctica and aridification on the northern continents. We infer that the inter-tropical convergence zone of intense precipitation extended to our site during late Eocene, at least four degrees latitude further south than today, but that it migrated northwards in step with global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation. Our findings point to an atmospheric teleconnection between extratropical cooling and rainfall climate in the tropics and the mid-latitude belt of the westerlies operating across the most pivotal transition in climate state of the Cenozoic Era.

Pliocene palaeotemperature reconstruction for the southern North Sea Based on Ostracoda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, A.M.; Whatley, R.C.; Cronin, T. M.; Holtz, T.

1993-01-01

The development of a large northeastern Atlantic shelf ostracod database has confirmed that an intrinsic relationship exists between watermass temperature and the spatial (latitudinal) distribution of benthonic shelf Ostracoda. A second Pliocene ostracod database, using assemblages from four boreholes in The Netherlands and a number of localities from the East Anglian Neogene succession has also been constructed. A quantitative method of modern analogues and the Squared Chord Distance dissimilarity coefficient has been employed as a means of calculating the level of similarity between Recent and Neogene assemblages and, therefore, to aid in the reconstruction of palaeotemperatures in the southern North Sea Basin during the Pliocene. The results, in the form of contoured dissimilarity values, indicate the presence of at least seven palaeoceanographical climatic phases between ca. 5.2 and 1.6 Ma BP. An early Pliocene cooling phase (ecozone A), in which the fauna is dominated by the cryophilic species; Palmenella limicola (Norman), Elofsonella concinna (Jones), Robertsonites tuberculatus (Sars), Neomonoceratina tsurugasakensis (Tabuki) and Acanthocythereis dunelmensis (Norman), supervenes a period of stable subtropical conditions in the Miocene. A 'mid' Pliocene warming phase (ecozone B), which has been documented throughout the North Atlantic, can be recognized in the faunal composition of the sublittoral ostracod assemblages of both The Netherlands and East Anglia. A hiatus between the Coralline and Waltonian crags is thought to be associated with a deterioration in climatic conditions. Recent analogues to The Netherlands faunas of ecozone C (first phase late Pliocene cooling, ca. 2.9 Ma BP) indicate a decrease of approximately 5-6??C in mean summer surface temperatures. A return to elevated temperatures, of a Mauritanian aspect, can be seen in the fauna of the FA2 zone and Waltonian Crag. This amelioration of climate occurred prior to the Praetiglian cold phase (second phase late Pliocene cooling, ca. 2.4 Ma BP) which again saw the reintroduction of cryophilic species including Baffinicythere howei Hazel, Fimarchinella logani (Brady, Crosskey and Robertson) and Hemicythere emarginata (Sars), into the southern North Sea during the Newbournian and Butleyan stages. The final phase of the latest Pliocene (third phase late Pliocene cooling) is only documented in the ostracod fauna of the Norwich Crag. Evidence in the covariance of Loxoconchidae and Norwegian provincial cryophilic species, indicates that the Polar Front may have been as much as 2000 km further south during the deposition of the Chillesford Sand Member (Norwich Crag Fm., ca. 2.0-1.6 Ma BP). ?? 1994.

Temperature Dependency of the Correlation between Secondary Organic Aerosol and Monoterpenes Concentrations at a Boreal Forest Site in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Zhang, W.; Rinne, J.

2016-12-01

Climate feedbacks represent the large uncertainty in the climate projection partly due to the difficulties to quantify the feedback mechanisms in the biosphere-atmosphere interaction. Recently, a negative climate feedback mechanism whereby higher temperatures and CO2-levels boost continental biomass production, leading to increased biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, tending to cause cooling, has been attached much attention. To quantify the relationship between biogenic organic compounds (BVOCs) and SOA, a five-year data set (2008, 2010-2011,2013-2014) for SOA and monoterpenes concentrations (the dominant fraction of BVOCs) measured at the SMEAR II station in Hyytiälä, Finland, is analyzed. Our results show that there is a moderate linear correlation between SOA and monoterpenes concentration with the correlation coefficient (R) as 0.66. To rule out the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, the dataset is further filtered by selecting the data at the wind direction of cleaner air mass, leading to an improved R as 0.68. As temperature is a critical factor for vegetation growth, BVOC emissions, and condensation rate, the correlation between SOA and monoterpenes concentration at different temperature windows are studied. The result shows a higher R and slope of linear regression as temperature increases. To identify the dominant oxidant responsible for the BVOC-SOA conversion, the correlations between SOA concentration and the monoterpenes oxidation rates by O3 and OH are compared, suggesting more SOA is contributed by O3 oxidation process. Finally, the possible processes and factors such as the atmospheric boundary layer depth, limiting factor in the monoterpenes oxidation process, as well as temperature sensitivity in the condensation process contributing to the temperature dependence of correlation between BVOA and SOA are investigated.

Landscape heterogeneity, soil climate, and carbon exchange in a boreal black spruce forest.

PubMed

Dunn, Allison L; Wofsy, Steven C; v H Bright, Alfram

2009-03-01

We measured soil climate and the turbulent fluxes of CO2, H2O, heat, and momentum on short towers (2 m) in a 160-yr-old boreal black spruce forest in Manitoba, Canada. Two distinct land cover types were studied: a Sphagnum-dominated wetland, and a feathermoss (Pleurozium and Hylocomium)-dominated upland, both lying within the footprint of a 30-m tower, which has measured whole-forest carbon exchange since 1994. Peak summertime uptake of CO2, was higher in the wetland than for the forest as a whole due to the influence of deciduous shrubs. Soil respiration rates in the wetland were approximately three times larger than in upland soils, and 30% greater than the mean of the whole forest, reflecting decomposition of soil organic matter. Soil respiration rates in the wetland were regulated by soil temperature, which was in turn influenced by water table depth through effects on soil heat capacity and conductivity. Warmer soil temperatures and deeper water tables favored increased heterotrophic respiration. Wetland drainage was limited by frost during the first half of the growing season, leading to high, perched water tables, cool soil temperatures, and much lower respiration rates than observed later in the growing season. Whole-forest evapotranspiration increased as water tables dropped, suggesting that photosynthesis in this forest was rarely subject to water stress. Our data indicate positive feedback between soil temperature, seasonal thawing, heterotrophic respiration, and evapotranspiration. As a result, climate warming could cause covariant changes in soil temperature and water table depths that may stimulate photosynthesis and strongly promote efflux of CO2 from peat soils in boreal wetlands.

Changes in Nannoplankton Assemblages during the recovery of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grey, J. A.; Bralower, T. J.; Self-Trail, J. M.

2016-12-01

The recovery interval of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) presents an opportunity to examine how organisms adapt to environmental change after a rapid global warming event. Calcareous nannoplankton survived the PETM, but we lack an understanding of how long it took for assemblages to adapt to a changing climate and the millennial-scale changes in their ecology. Here, we present the first high-resolution record of nannoplankton community change during the PETM recovery using a global data set (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Wilson Lake core, USGS Cam-Dor core, Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 690, 1265, and 1209) to assess millennial-scale assemblage change across space and time. Preliminary multivariate analyses on assemblage changes at Wilson Lake demonstrate that within 20,000 years after the onset, the structure of nannoplankton communities shifts from an assemblage dominated by warm eutrophic specialists to one dominated by eutrophic low salinity specialists. In the late recovery, ubiquitous taxa dominate assemblages, suggesting that the shelf environment became favorable for generalists. The latest part of the recovery is marked by a slight increase in oligotrophic specialists, indicating that the shelf became less eutrophic into the early Eocene. Overall, these analyses suggest that assemblages changed rapidly in response to cooling and changing ocean circulation during the early recovery of the PETM. Future analyses will build on these data by comparing assemblage change from other PETM coastal and open ocean sites. These analyses will help us better understand the spatial and temporal changes of nannoplankton communities on a global scale, lessons that can inform how nannoplankton will respond to future climate change.

Technology Solutions Case Study: Replacement of Variable-Speed Motors for Furnaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2013-02-01

In conjunction with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and Proctor Engineering Group, Ltd. (PEG), the Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) evaluated the Concept 3™ replacement motors for residential furnaces in eight homes in Syracuse, NY. These brushless, permanent magnet (BPM) motors can use much less electricity than their PSC (permanent split capacitor) predecessors. This evaluation focuses on existing homes in the heating-dominated climate of upstate New York with the goals of characterizing field performance and cost-effectiveness. The results of this study are intended to be useful to home performance contractors, HVAC contractors, and homemore » efficiency program stakeholders. Tests and monitoring was performed both before and after fan motors were replaced. Average fan power reductions were approximately 126 Watts during heating and 220 Watts during cooling operation. Over the course of entire heating and cooling seasons, these translated into average electric energy savings of 163 kWh, with average cost savings of $20 per year. Homes where the fan was used outside of heating and cooling mode saved an additional $42 per year on average. Results indicate that BPM replacement motors will be most cost-effective in HVAC systems with longer run times and relatively low duct static pressures. More dramatic savings are possible if occupants use the fan-only setting when there is no thermal load.« less

Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

PubMed

Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

2012-07-10

Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

Global vegetation distribution and terrestrial climate evolution at the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The Eocene - Oligocene transition (EOT; ca. 34-33.5 Ma) is widely considered to be the biggest step in Cenozoic climate evolution. Geochemical marine records show both surface and bottom water cooling, associated with the expansion of Antarctic glaciers and a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, the global response of the terrestrial biosphere to the EOT is less well understood and not uniform when comparing different regions. We present new global vegetation and terrestrial climate reconstructions of the Priabonian (late Eocene; 38-33.9 Ma) and Rupelian (early Oligocene; 33.9-28.45 Ma) by synthesising 215 pollen and spore localities. Using presence/absence data of pollen and spores with multivariate statistics has allowed the reconstruction of palaeo-biomes without relying on modern analogues. The reconstructed palaeo-biomes do not show the equator-ward shift at the EOT, which would be expected from a global cooling. Reconstructions of mean annual temperature, cold month mean temperature and warm month mean temperature do not show a global cooling of terrestrial climate across the EOT. Our new reconstructions differ from previous global syntheses by being based on an internally consistent statistically defined classification of palaeo-biomes and our terrestrial based climate reconstructions are in stark contrast to some marine based climate estimates. Our results raise new questions on the nature and extent of terrestrial global climate change at the EOT.

Astronomically forced paleoclimate change from middle Eocene to early Oligocene: continental conditions in central China compared with the global marine isotope record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.

2010-12-01

The early Eocene climatic optimum ended with a long interval of global cooling that began in the early Middle Eocene and ended at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. During this long-term cooling, a series of short-term warming reversals occurred in the marine realm. Here, we investigate corresponding continental climate conditions as revealed in the Qianjiang Formation of the Jianghan Basin in central China, which consists of more than 4000 m of saline lake sediments. The Qianjiang Formation includes, in its deepest sections, a halite-rich rhythmic sediment succession with dark mudstone, brownish-white siltstone and sandstone, and greyish-white halite. Alternating fresh water (humid/cool)—saline water (dry/hot) deposits reflect climate cycles driven by orbital forcing. High-resolution gamma ray (GR) logging from the basin center captures these pronounced lithological rhythms throughout the formation. Several halite-rich intervals are interpreted as short-term warming events within the middle Eocene to early Oligocene, and could be expressions of coeval warming events in the global marine oxygen isotope record, for example, the middle Eocene climate optimum (MECO) event around 41 Ma. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary is distinguished by a radical change from halite-rich to clastic sediments, indicating a dramatic climate change from warm to cool conditions. Power spectral analysis of the GR series indicates strong short (~100 kyr) eccentricity cycling during the warm/hot episodes. Amplitude modulation of the short eccentricity in the GR series occurs with a strong 405 kyr periodicity. This cycling is calibrated to the La2004 orbital eccentricity model. A climate reversal occurs at 36.5 Ma within the long-term marine cooling trend following MECO, which is reflected also in the Qianjiang GR series, with the latter indicating several brief warm/dry reversals within the trend. A ~2.6 Myr halite-rich warm interval occurs in the latest Eocene in the continental record; both marine and continental records show continued warmth up to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. This is followed at 33.96 Ma in both records by a shift to cooler climates, and in the continental record, more humid conditions.

Oceanographic and climatic evolution of the southeastern subtropical Atlantic over the last 3.5 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin L.; Littler, Kate; Rosell-Melé, Antoni; Clarkson, Matthew O.; Maslin, Mark; Röhl, Ursula; Shevenell, Amelia E.; Pancost, Richard D.

2018-06-01

The southeast Atlantic Ocean is dominated by two major oceanic systems: the Benguela Upwelling System, one of the world's most productive coastal upwelling cells and the Agulhas Leakage, which is important for transferring warm salty water from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. Here, we present a multi-proxy record of marine sediments from ODP Site 1087. We reconstruct sea surface temperatures (U37K‧ and TEX86 indices), marine primary productivity (total chlorin and alkenone mass accumulation rates), and terrestrial inputs derived from southern Africa (Ti/Al and Ca/Ti via XRF scanning) to understand the evolution of the Southeast Atlantic Ocean since the late Pliocene. In the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, ODP Site 1087 was situated within the Benguela Upwelling System, which was displaced southwards relative to present. We recognize a series of events in the proxy records at 3.3, 3.0, 2.2, 1.5, 0.9 and 0.6 Ma, which are interpreted to reflect a combination of changes in the location of major global wind and oceanic systems and local variations in the strength and/or position of the winds, which influence nutrient availability. Although there is a temporary SST cooling observed around the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (iNHG), proxy records from ODP Site 1087 show no clear climatic transition around 2.7 Ma but instead most of the changes occur before this time. This observation is significant because it has been previously suggested that there should be a change in the location and/or strength of upwelling associated with this climate transition. Rather, the main shifts at ODP Site 1087 occur at ca. 0.9 Ma and 0.6 Ma, associated with the early mid-Pleistocene transition (EMPT), with a clear loss of the previous upwelling-dominated regime. This observation raises the possibility that reorganisation of southeast Atlantic Ocean circulation towards modern conditions was tightly linked to the EMPT, but not to earlier climate transitions.

Asymmetric Response of the Equatorial Pacific SST to Climate Warming and Cooling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing; while in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that themore » SST asymmetry is mainly resulted from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments.« less

Asymmetric response of the equatorial Pacific SST to climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Liu, F.; Lu, J.

2017-12-01

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing; while in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that the SST asymmetry is mainly resulted from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments.

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

PubMed

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Measure Guideline: Ventilation Cooling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Springer, D.; Dakin, B.; German, A.

2012-04-01

The purpose of this measure guideline on ventilation cooling is to provide information on a cost-effective solution for reducing cooling system energy and demand in homes located in hot-dry and cold-dry climates. This guideline provides a prescriptive approach that outlines qualification criteria, selection considerations, and design and installation procedures.

A millennium of Mediterranean climate change and forest history in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Piovesan, G.

2010-12-01

A 1100 year sedimentary sequence from a lake in central Italy near Rome (Lago Lungo, Lazio, 379 m a.s.l.) was sampled for pollen and charcoal at an average interval of 26 years providing a high-resolution reconstruction of vegetation from 885 AD to the present. Pollen percentages support historical documents that describe periodic deforestation and agricultural expansion during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Forests recovered about 1400 AD following depopulation associated with the black plague and socio-economic instability and a shift to cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Mixed deciduous forest reached a maximum in 1550 AD, approximately one century later than many sites across Western Europe. A less diverse less dense forest emerged after 1650 AD following the plague of 1656 AD. There is no evidence that excessive cutting, burning and erosion during the medieval period caused permanent degradation of the landscape. Forests appear to have recovered rapidly when land use declined and climate became favorable. Comparison of the pollen data with reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of Morocco and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indicate periods of deforestation and woodland regeneration coincide with climate change. During warm dry climate, deforestation accelerated and agriculture expanded, and during extended cool wet climate, conditions for cereal cultivation deteriorated, forests and wetland expanded, and the local agricultural system collapsed. These results show that in the Mediterranean, collapse of local agricultural systems may also occur during extended periods of cool/wet climate.

Whole planet coupling between climate, mantle, and core: Implications for rocky planet evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Bradford J.; Driscoll, Peter E.

2016-05-01

Earth's climate, mantle, and core interact over geologic time scales. Climate influences whether plate tectonics can take place on a planet, with cool climates being favorable for plate tectonics because they enhance stresses in the lithosphere, suppress plate boundary annealing, and promote hydration and weakening of the lithosphere. Plate tectonics plays a vital role in the long-term carbon cycle, which helps to maintain a temperate climate. Plate tectonics provides long-term cooling of the core, which is vital for generating a magnetic field, and the magnetic field is capable of shielding atmospheric volatiles from the solar wind. Coupling between climate, mantle, and core can potentially explain the divergent evolution of Earth and Venus. As Venus lies too close to the sun for liquid water to exist, there is no long-term carbon cycle and thus an extremely hot climate. Therefore, plate tectonics cannot operate and a long-lived core dynamo cannot be sustained due to insufficient core cooling. On planets within the habitable zone where liquid water is possible, a wide range of evolutionary scenarios can take place depending on initial atmospheric composition, bulk volatile content, or the timing of when plate tectonics initiates, among other factors. Many of these evolutionary trajectories would render the planet uninhabitable. However, there is still significant uncertainty over the nature of the coupling between climate, mantle, and core. Future work is needed to constrain potential evolutionary scenarios and the likelihood of an Earth-like evolution.

Integrated assessment of water-power grid systems under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Betrie, G.

2017-12-01

Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interaction among water and electricity generation under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technology. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.

Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

PubMed

Elliott, Grant P

2012-07-01

Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad regional scales. (2) The importance of climate parameters exceeding critical threshold values and triggering a regime shift in tree establishment appears to be contingent on the alignment of favorable temperature and moisture regimes. This research suggests that threshold changes in the climate system can fundamentally alter regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones and, through the use of regime-shift analysis, reveals important climate-vegetation linkages.

Increases in the climate change adaption effectiveness and availability of vegetation across a coastal to desert climate gradient in metropolitan Los Angeles, CA, USA.

PubMed

Tayyebi, Amin; Darrel Jenerette, G

2016-04-01

Urbanization has increased heat in the urban environment, with many consequences for human health and well-being. Managing climate change in part through increasing vegetation is desired by many cities to mitigate current and future heat related issues. However, little information is available on what influences the current effectiveness and availability of vegetation for local cooling. In this study, we identified the variation in the interacting relationships among vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index), socioeconomic status (neighborhood income), elevation and land surface temperature (LST) to identify how vegetation based surface cooling services change throughout the pronounced coastal to desert climate gradient of the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan region, a megacity of >18 million residents. A key challenge for understanding variation in vegetation as a climate change adaptation tool spanning neighborhood to megacity scales is developing new "big data" analytical tools. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the interacting relationships among socio-economic status data obtained from government census data, elevation and new LST and vegetation data obtained from an airborne imaging campaign conducted in 2013 for the urban and suburban areas across a series of fifteen climate zones. Vegetation systematically increased in cooling effectiveness from 6.06 to 31.77 degrees with increasing distance from the coast. Vegetation and neighborhood income were positively correlated throughout all climate zones with a peak in the relationship occurring near 25km from the coast. Because of the interaction between these two relationships, we also found that higher income neighborhoods were cooler and that this effect peaked at about 30km from the coast. These results show the availability and effectiveness of vegetation on the local climate varies tremendously throughout the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan area. Further, using the more inland climate zones as future analogs for more coastal zones, suggests that in the warmer climate conditions projected for the region the effectiveness of vegetation for regional cooling may increase thus acting as a localized negative feedback mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Similarity scaling of turbulence in small temperate lake: implication for gas flux: implication for gas flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedford, E. W.; MacIntyre, S.; Miller, S. D.; Czikowsky, M. J.

2013-12-01

The actively mixing layer, or surface layer, is the region of the upper mixed layer of lakes, oceans and the atmosphere directly influenced by wind, heating and cooling. Turbulence within the surface mixing layer has a direct impact on important ecological processes. The Monin-Obukhov length scale (LMO) is a critical length scale used in predicting and understanding turbulence in the actively mixed layer. On the water side of the air-water interface, LMO is defined as: LMO=-u*^3/(0.4 JB0) where u*, the shear velocity, is defined as (τ/rho)^0.5 where τ is the shear stress and rho is the density of water and JBO is the buoyancy flux at the surface. Above the depth equal to the absolute value of the Monin-Obukhov length scale (zMO), wind shear is assumed to dominate the production of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Below zMO, the turbulence is assumed to be suppressed when JB0 is stabilizing (warming surface waters) and enhanced when the buoyancy flux is destabilizing (cooling surface waters). Our observed dissipations were well represented using the canonical similarity scaling equations. The Monin-Obukhov length scale was generally effective in separating the surface-mixing layer into two regions: an upper region, dominated by wind shear; and a lower region, dominated by buoyancy flux. During both heating and cooling and above a depth equal to |LMO|, turbulence was dominated by wind shear and dissipation followed law of the wall scaling although was slightly augmented by buoyancy flux during both heating and cooling. Below a depth equal to |LMO| during cooling, dissipation was nearly uniform with depth. Although distinguishing between an upper region of the actively mixing layer dominated by wind stress and a lower portion dominated by buoyancy flux is typically accurate the most accurate estimates of dissipation include the effects of both wind stress and buoyancy flux throughout the actively mixed layer. We demonstrate and discuss the impact of neglecting the non-dominant forcing (buoyancy flux above zMO and wind stress below zMO) above and below zMO.

Cool Science: Engaging Adult and K-16 Audiences in Climate Change Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.

2012-12-01

A team of educators and scientists from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and the University of Massachusetts Boston will report on an informal science learning research project using mass transit spaces in Lowell, MA. Cool Science (CS) uses advertising spaces on buses and terminals to engage the public with an Out of Home Multi-Media (OHMM) learning experience. K-16 classrooms throughout Massachusetts will submit original artwork that conveys a scientific concept central to understanding climate change. The best 6 works submitted will be printed and placed on every bus in the city over a 6 month period during the first half of 2013. CS aims to promote and evaluate learning about climate change science among the general adult public and k-16 students/teachers. Cool Science offers teachers an efficient and effective means of seamlessly bringing the study of climate change into classroom learning both within science and across disciplines. The products of this effort are then used to improve public engagement with the science of climate change in mass transit environments. Cool Science is an example of Science, Technology, Engineering, Art and Math education (STEAM). The goals of CS are: 1) Engage professors, teachers, and their respective students in a climate change science communication competition. 2) Run the winning 6 selected placards and posters throughout the LRTA. 3) Identify how different communities of risk among the riding public approach and understand climate change. 4) Identify the advantages and disadvantages of using buses as a context for research on informal science learning. 5) Determine the extent to which student artwork serves as a trusted source of information. As advances in technology allow for more scientific knowledge to be generated, the role of informal education to improve adult understanding of science has never been greater. We see the convergence of circumstances (ISE, climate change, OHMM, mobile technology) as an enormous opportunity develop and evaluate a new approach to improving the level of scientific literacy among adults. Cool Science is an example of how an individual's daily routine may be enhanced with an informal science learning opportunity. This paper will report on project progress, research challenges encountered to date, and present preliminary findings. Among the results presented will be the 6 winning student artworks, analysis of teacher/student interviews, and audience attitudes and knowledge of climate change prior to the intervention. In addition, a comparison of website use before and during the implementation of the public learning campaign will be available.; Learning the Climate Change Science on the Go!

Vegetation and climate history in the Laptev Sea region (arctic Siberia) during Late Quaternary inferred from pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, A.; Schirrmeister, L.; Tarasov, P.

2009-04-01

A number of permafrost sections dated by 14C, TL, IRSL, and 230U/Th were analysed for pollen. Pollen spectra suggest that wet grass-sedge tundra habitats dominated during an interstadial c. 200-170 ka ago. The climate was rather wet and cold. The pollen spectra reflect sparser grass-sedge vegetation cover during the Late Saalian stadial, c. 170-130 ka BP. Environmental conditions were much more severe compared with the previous interstadial. Open Poaceae and Artemisia communities dominated at the beginning of the Last Interglacial. Some shrubs (Alnus fruticosa, Salix, Betula nana) grew in more protected and wetter places. Climate was rather warm (similar to modern conditions)during this time. Shrub tundra with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana s.l. dominated in the area during the Eemian climatic optimum, when summer temperatures were 4-5°C higher than today. Early Weichselian pollen records reflect harsh environmental conditions; sparser vegetation (mostly grass and sedge communities) during this time. Middle Weichselian (Karginsky) Interstadial records with dominance of Cyperaceae and Poaceae with some Artemisia and Salix reflects tundra- and steppe-like associations with willow shrubs dominated the area. The climate was relatively moist and warm. A rather high content of algae colonies in the sediments indicates shallow water habitats (e.g. centres of ice wedge polygons). Dominance of Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Artemisia, and Caryophyllaceae pollen with some other herbs is typical for the 40-32 ka BP (climatic optimum) old sediments when open herb dominated the area. High pollen concentrations reflect that dense grass-sedge dominated vegetation; presence of Salix is also characteristic. The records point to climate amelioration during the Middle Weichselian compared to the Early Weichselian. Climate conditions became colder and drier c. 30-26 ka BP. Pollen spectra reflect that sedge-grass-Artemisia with some Caryophyllaceae and Asteraceae dominated the vegetation. Mostly grass conenoses with some Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, Cichoriaceae, Selaginella rupestris predominated during the late Weichselian (Sartan), ca 26-16 ka BP. Climate was very cold and dry. Later, 16-12 ka BP, grass and sedge associations with Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, and Cichoriaceae dominated the vegetation. Climate was significantly warmer and moister than during the previous interval. Accumulation of Ice Complex sediments stopped ca 12 ka BP, at the beginning of Allerød. Higher pollen concentration, the presence of willow and birch pollen points to a relatively warm climate between 12 and 11 ka BP reflecting significant climate amelioration. Pollen of shrubs disappeared from the Younger Dryas spectra pointing to the harsher climate. Early Holocene spectra are dominated by alder, birch, Poaceae, and Cyperaceae. Climate reconstruction inferred a temperature substantially warmer than present (up to 12°C). Shrubs gradually disappeared from the area after 7.6 14C ka BP and vegetation cover became similar to modern tundra.

An Early Pleistocene 190 kyr pollen record from the ODP Site 976, Western Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannin, Sebastien; Combourieu Nebout, Nathalie

2010-05-01

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (1.200 to 0.500 Ma) corresponded to a period of increased cooling and the shift from "41 kyr world" to "100 kyr world". Climate cycles were 41 kyr long as a response of the climate system to the obliquity orbital parameter forcing, then the climate system responded to a combination of eccentricity and precession resulting in 100 kyr long cycles. The Mediterranean region offers the opportunity to study climate response to orbital forcing at this particular period. It is usually done on marine proxies that are preserved in continuous sediments with good age attributions but may be affected by calorific inertia of marine environments. We investigate continental palaeoenvironment changes inferred from pollen analyses through time on a short interval of the ODP Site 976 (259.50 to 230.42 mcd). In order to search for short climate oscillations, the chronology has been refined according to the comparison between the pollen ratio "mesothermic vs. Caryophyllaceae, Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae and steppe elements" curve and Mediterranean and LR04 oxygen isotope curves. The time slice runs from ~1.090 Ma (MIS 31) to ~0.900 Ma (MIS 23). Pollen analyses provide a new record of the south western Mediterranean vegetation and climate changes at the beginning of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Vegetation successions are evidenced in pollen diagram with replacement of mesothermic elements by mid- and high-altitude trees, ended by strengthening of Caryophyllaceae, Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae, and steppe vegetation. These vegetation successions reveal two overlapping rhythms that may be related to climate responses to both obliquity and precession orbital parameters, while wavelet analyses on pollen ratio only indicate the shift from precession to obliquity dominance. The comparison of these two approaches raised the question of their own limit.

A review of stratigraphy and sedimentary environments of the Karoo Basin of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. M. H.

The Karoo Supergroup covers almost two thirds of the present land surface of southern Africa. Its strata record an almost continuous sequence of continental sedimentation that began in the Permo-Carboniferous (280 Ma) and terminated in the early Jurassic 100 million years later. The glacio-marine to terrestrial sequence accumulated in a variety of tectonically controlled depositories under progressively more arid climatic conditions. Numerous vertebrate fossils are preserved in these rocks, including fish, amphibians, primitive aquatic reptiles, primitive land reptiles, more advanced mammal-like reptiles, dinosaurs and even the earliest mammals. Palaeoenvironmental analysis of the major stratigraphic units of the Karoo sequence demonstrates the effects of more localised tectonic basins in influencing depositional style. These are superimposed on a basinwide trend of progressive aridification attributed to the gradual northward migration of southwestern Gondwanaland out of polar climes and accentuated by the meteoric drying effect of the surrounding land masses. Combined with progressive climatic drying was a gradual shrinking of the basin brought about by the northward migration of the subducting palaeo-Pacific margin to the south. Following deposition of the Cape Supergroup in the pre-Karoo basin there was a period of uplift and erosion. At the same time the southern part of Gondwana migrated over the South Pole resulting in a major ice-sheet over the early Karoo basin and surrounding highlands. Glacial sedimentation in both upland valley and shelf depositories resulted in the basal Karoo Dwyka Formation. After glaciation, an extensive shallow sea remained over the gently subsiding shelf fed by large volumes of meltwater. Black clays and muds accumulated under relatively cool climatic conditions (Lower Ecca) with perhaps a warmer "interglacial" during which the distinctive Mesosaurus-bearing, carbonaceous shales of the Whitehill Formation were deposited. Deformation of the southern rim of the basin, caused by the subducting palaeo-Pacific plate, resulted in mountain ranges far to the south. Material derived from this source, as well as granitic uplands to the west and morth-east, was deposited on large deltas that built out into the Ecca sea (Upper Ecca). The relatively cool climate and lowland setting promoted thick accumulations of peat on the coastal and delta plains and which now constitute the major coal reserves of southern Africa. Later the prograding deltas coalesced to fill most of the basin after which fluvial sedimentation of the Beaufort Group dominated. The climate by this time (Late Permian) had warmed to become semi-arid with highly seasonal rainfall. The central parts of the basin were for the most part drained by fine-grained meanderbelts and semi-permanent lakes. Significant stratabound uranium reserves have been delimited in the channel sandstones of the Beaufort Group in the southwestern parts of the basin. Pulses of uplift in the southern source areas combined with a possible orogenic effect resulted in two coarser-grained alluvial fans prograding into the more central parts of the basin (Katberg Sandstone Member and Molteno Formation). In the upper Karoo sequence progressive aridification dominated depositional style with playa lake and wadi-type environments (Elliot Formation) that finally gave way to a dune sand dominated system (Clarens Formation). Basinwide volcanic activity of the early Jurassic Drakensberg Group brought deposition in the Karoo Basin to a close.

Grey mullet (Mugilidae) as possible indicators of global warming in South African estuaries and coastal waters.

PubMed

James, Nicola C; Whitfield, Alan K; Harrison, Trevor D

2016-12-01

The grey mullet usually occur in large numbers and biomass in the estuaries of all three South African biogeographic regions, thus making it an ideal family to use in terms of possibly acting as an environmental indicator of global warming. In this analysis the relative estuarine abundance of the dominant three groups of mugilids, namely tropical, warm-water and cool-water endemics, were related to sea surface coastal temperatures. The study suggests a strong link between temperature and the distribution and abundance of the three mullet groups within estuaries and indicates the potential of this family to act as an indicator for future climate change within these systems and adjacent coastal waters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marked surface inversions and wind shear: A safety risk for departing aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korhonen, O.

1983-01-01

Marked surface inversions occur most frequently in dry continental climates, where low atmospheric humidity allows heat transfer by long wave thermal radiation. In the northern latitudes, surface inversions reach their maximum intensity during the winter, when the incoming Sun's radiation is negligible and radiative cooling is dominant during the long nights. During winter, air mass boundaries are sharp, which causes formation of marked surface inversions. The existence of these inversions and sharp boundaries increase the risk of wind shear. The information should refer to marked inversions exceeding a temperature difference of 10 deg C up to 1000 feet. The need to determine the temperature range over which he information is operationally needed and the magnitude of the inversion required before a notification to pilots prior to departure is warranted are outlined.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

Autumn Cooling of Western East Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clem, Kyle R.; Renwick, James A.; McGregor, James

2018-01-01

Over the past 60 years, the climate of East Antarctica cooled while portions of West Antarctica were among the most rapidly warming regions on the planet. The East Antarctic cooling is attributed to a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and a strengthening of the westerlies, while West Antarctic warming is tied to zonally asymmetric circulation changes forced by the tropics. This study finds recent (post-1979) surface cooling of East Antarctica during austral autumn to also be tied to tropical forcing, namely, an increase in La Niña events. The recent increase in La Niña conditions forces a Rossby wave into the Southern Hemisphere that increases anticyclonic circulation over the South Atlantic. The South Atlantic anticyclone is associated with cold air advection, weakened northerlies, and increased sea ice concentrations across the western East Antarctic coast, which has increased the rate of cooling at Novolazarevskaya and Syowa stations after 1979. This enhanced cooling over western East Antarctica is tied more broadly to a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern across East Antarctica during autumn that is consistent with a tropically forced Rossby wave rather than a SAM pattern; the positive SAM pattern is associated with ubiquitous cooling across East Antarctica, which is not seen in temperature observations after 1979. We conclude that El Niño-Southern Oscillation-related circulation anomalies, particularly zonal asymmetries that locally enhance meridional wind, are an important component of East Antarctic climate variability during autumn, and future changes in tropical Pacific climate will likely have implications for East Antarctica.

Inclusion of cool roofs in nonresidential Title 24 prescriptive requirements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Konopacki, Steve

2002-12-15

Roofs that have high solar reflectance (high ability to reflect sunlight) and high thermal emittance (high ability to radiate heat) tend to stay cool in the sun. The same is true of low-emittance roofs with exceptionally high solar reflectance. Substituting a cool roof for a noncool roof tends to decrease cooling electricity use, cooling power demand, and cooling-equipment capacity requirements, while slightly increasing heating energy consumption. Cool roofs can also lower the ambient air temperature in summer, slowing ozone formation and increasing human comfort. DOE-2.1E building energy simulations indicate that use of a cool roofing material on a prototypical Californiamore » nonresidential building with a low-sloped roof yields average annual cooling energy savings of approximately 300 kWh/1000 ft2 [3.2 kWh/m2], average annual natural gas deficits of 4.9 therm/1000 ft2 [5.6 MJ/m2], average source energy savings of 2.6 MBTU/1000 ft2 [30 MJ/m2], and average peak power demand savings of 0. 19 kW/1000 ft2 [2.1 W/m2]. The 15-year net present value (NPV) of energy savings averages $450/1000 ft2 [$4.90/m2] with time dependent valuation (TDV), and $370/1000 ft2 [$4.00/m2] without TDV. When cost savings from downsizing cooling equipment are included, the average total savings (15-year NPV + equipment savings) rises to $550/1000 ft2 [$5.90/m2] with TDV, and to $470/1000 ft2 [$5.00/m2] without TDV. Total savings range from 0.18 to 0.77 $/ft2 [1.90 to 8.30 $/m2] with TDV, and from 0.16 to 0.66 $/ft2 [1.70 to 7.10 $/m2] without TDV, across California's 16 climate zones. The typical cost premium for a cool roof is 0.00 to 0.20 $/ft2 [0.00 to 2.20 $/m2]. Cool roofs with premiums up to $0.20/ft2 [$2.20/m2] are expected to be cost effective in climate zones 2 through 16; those with premiums not exceeding $0.18/ft2 [$1.90/m2] are expected to be also cost effective in climate zone 1. Hence, this study recommends that the year-2005 California building energy efficiency code (Title 24, Pa rt 6 of the California Code of Regulations) for nonresidential buildings with low-sloped roofs include a cool-roof prescriptive requirement in all California climate zones. Buildings with roofs that do not meet prescriptive requirements may comply with the code via an ''overall-envelope'' approach (non-metal roofs only), or via a performance approach (all roof types).« less

Global cooling as a driver of diversification in a major marine clade

PubMed Central

Davis, Katie E.; Hill, Jon; Astrop, Tim I.; Wills, Matthew A.

2016-01-01

Climate is a strong driver of global diversity and will become increasingly important as human influences drive temperature changes at unprecedented rates. Here we investigate diversification and speciation trends within a diverse group of aquatic crustaceans, the Anomura. We use a phylogenetic framework to demonstrate that speciation rate is correlated with global cooling across the entire tree, in contrast to previous studies. Additionally, we find that marine clades continue to show evidence of increased speciation rates with cooler global temperatures, while the single freshwater clade shows the opposite trend with speciation rates positively correlated to global warming. Our findings suggest that both global cooling and warming lead to diversification and that habitat plays a role in the responses of species to climate change. These results have important implications for our understanding of how extant biota respond to ongoing climate change and are of particular importance for conservation planning of marine ecosystems. PMID:27701377

Thermal performance of a Concrete Cool Roof under different climatic conditions of Mexico

DOE PAGES

Hernández-Pérez, I.; Álvarez, G.; Gilbert, H.; ...

2014-11-27

A cool roof is an ordinary roof with a reflective coating on the exterior surface which has a high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance. These properties let the roof keep a lower temperature than a standard roof under the same conditions. In this work, the thermal performance of a concrete roof with and without insulation and with two colors has been analyzed using the finite volume method. The boundary conditions of the external roof surface were taken from hourly averaged climatic data of four cities. For the internal surface, it is considered that the building is air-conditioned and themore » inside air has a constant temperature. The interior surface temperature and the heat flux rates into the roofs were obtained for two consecutive days in order to assess the benefits of a cool roofs in different climates.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

As scientists and politicians anxiously eye signs of global greenhouse warming, climatologists are finding the best evidence yet that a massive volcanic eruption can temporarily bring the temperature down a notch or two. Such a cooling could be enough to set the current global warming back more than a decade, confusing any efforts to link it to the greenhouse effect. By effectively eliminating some nonvolcanic climate changes from the record of the past 100 years, researchers have detected drops in global temperature of several tenths of a degree within 1 to 2 years of volcanic eruptions. Apparently, the debris spewedmore » into the stratosphere blocked sunlight and caused the temperature drops. For all their potential social significance, the climate effects of volcanoes have been hard to detect. The problem has been in identifying a volcanic cooling among the nearly continuous climate warmings and coolings of a similar size that fill the record. The paper reviews how this was done.« less

Global cooling as a driver of diversification in a major marine clade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Katie E.; Hill, Jon; Astrop, Tim I.; Wills, Matthew A.

2016-10-01

Climate is a strong driver of global diversity and will become increasingly important as human influences drive temperature changes at unprecedented rates. Here we investigate diversification and speciation trends within a diverse group of aquatic crustaceans, the Anomura. We use a phylogenetic framework to demonstrate that speciation rate is correlated with global cooling across the entire tree, in contrast to previous studies. Additionally, we find that marine clades continue to show evidence of increased speciation rates with cooler global temperatures, while the single freshwater clade shows the opposite trend with speciation rates positively correlated to global warming. Our findings suggest that both global cooling and warming lead to diversification and that habitat plays a role in the responses of species to climate change. These results have important implications for our understanding of how extant biota respond to ongoing climate change and are of particular importance for conservation planning of marine ecosystems.

Multi-scale forcing and the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, G. X.; Liu, Y.; Zhu, X.; Li, W.; Ren, R.; Duan, A.; Liang, X.

2009-09-01

This study investigates three types of atmospheric forcing across the summertime subtropics that are shown to contribute in various ways to the occurrence of dry and wet climates in the subtropics. To explain the formation of desert over the western parts of continents and monsoon over the eastern parts, we propose a new mechanism of positive feedback between diabatic heating and vorticity generation that occurs via meridional advection of planetary vorticity and temperature. Monsoon and desert are demonstrated to coexist as twin features of multi-scale forcing, as follows. First, continent-scale heating over land and cooling over ocean induce the ascent of air over the eastern parts of continents and western parts of oceans, and descent over eastern parts of oceans and western parts of continents. Second, local-scale sea-breeze forcing along coastal regions enhances air descent over eastern parts of oceans and ascent over eastern parts of continents. This leads to the formation of the well-defined summertime subtropical LOSECOD quadruplet-heating pattern across each continent and adjacent oceans, with long-wave radiative cooling (LO) over eastern parts of oceans, sensible heating (SE) over western parts of continents, condensation heating (CO) over eastern parts of continents, and double dominant heating (D: LO+CO) over western parts of oceans. Such a quadruplet heating pattern corresponds to a dry climate over the western parts of continents and a wet climate over eastern parts. Third, regional-scale orographic-uplift-heating generates poleward ascending flow to the east of orography and equatorward descending flow to the west. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is located over the eastern Eurasian continent. The TP-forced circulation pattern is in phase with that produced by continental-scale forcing, and the strongest monsoon and largest deserts are formed over the Afro-Eurasian Continent. In contrast, the Rockies and the Andes are located over the western parts of their respective continents, and orography-induced ascent is separated from ascent due to continental-scale forcing. Accordingly, the deserts and monsoon climate over these continents are not as strongly developed as those over the Eurasian Continent. A new mechanism of positive feedback between diabatic heating and vorticity generation, which occurs via meridional transfer of heat and planetary vorticity, is proposed as a means of explaining the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon. Strong low-level longwave radiative cooling over eastern parts of oceans and strong surface sensible heating on western parts of continents generate negative vorticity that is balanced by positive planetary vorticity advection from high latitudes. The equatorward flow generated over eastern parts of oceans produces cold sea-surface temperature and stable stratification, leading in turn to the formation of low stratus clouds and the maintenance of strong in situ longwave radiative cooling. The equatorward flow over western parts of continents carries cold, dry air, thereby enhancing local sensible heating as well as moisture release from the underlying soil. These factors result in a dry desert climate. Over the eastern parts of continents, condensation heating generates positive vorticity in the lower troposphere, which is balanced by negative planetary vorticity advection of the meridional flow from low latitudes. The flow brings warm and moist air, thereby enhancing local convective instability and condensation heating associated with rainfall. These factors produce a wet monsoonal climate. Overall, our results demonstrate that subtropical desert and monsoon coexist as a consequence of multi-scale forcing along the subtropics.

The adaptation of polar fishes to climatic changes: Structure, function and phylogeny of haemoglobin.

PubMed

Verde, Cinzia; Giordano, Daniela; di Prisco, Guido

2008-01-01

In the Antarctic, fishes of dominant suborder Notothenioidei have evolved in a unique thermal scenario. Phylogenetically related taxa of the suborder live in a wide range of latitudes, in Antarctic, sub-Antarctic and temperate oceans. Consequently, they offer a remarkable opportunity to study the physiological and biochemical characters gained and, conversely, lost during their evolutionary history. The evolutionary perspective has also been pursued by comparative studies of some features of the heme protein devoted to O(2) transport in fish living in the other polar region, the Arctic. The two polar regions differ by age and isolation. Fish living in each habitat have undergone regional constraints and fit into different evolutionary histories. The aim of this contribution is to survey the current knowledge of molecular structure, functional features, phylogeny and adaptations of the haemoglobins of fish thriving in the Antarctic, sub-Antarctic and Arctic regions (with some excursions in the temperate latitudes), in search of insights into the convergent processes evolved in response to cooling. Current climate change may disturb adaptation, calling for strategies aimed at neutralising threats to biodiversity.

Fast and Slow Responses of the South Asian Monsoon System to Anthropogenic Aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-09-25

Using a global climate model with fully predictive aerosol life cycle, we investigate the fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Our results show that the feedbacks associated with sea surface temperature (SST) change caused by aerosols play a more important role than the aerosol's direct impact on radiation, clouds and land surface (rapid adjustments) in shaping the total equilibrium climate response of the monsoon system to aerosol forcing. Inhomogeneous SST cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols eventually reduces the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and the easterly shear of zonal winds over the region,more » slowing down the local Hadley cell circulation, decreasing the northward moisture transport, and causing a reduction in precipitation over South Asia. Although total responses in precipitation are closer to the slow responses in general, the fast component dominates over land areas north of 25°N. Our results also show an east-west asymmetry in the fast responses to anthropogenic aerosols causing increases in precipitation west of 80°E but decreases east of it.« less

Thermal erosion of cratonic lithosphere as a potential trigger for mass-extinction

PubMed Central

Guex, Jean; Pilet, Sebastien; Müntener, Othmar; Bartolini, Annachiara; Spangenberg, Jorge; Schoene, Blair; Sell, Bryan; Schaltegger, Urs

2016-01-01

The temporal coincidence between large igneous provinces (LIPs) and mass extinctions has led many to pose a causal relationship between the two. However, there is still no consensus on a mechanistic model that explains how magmatism leads to the turnover of terrestrial and marine plants, invertebrates and vertebrates. Here we present a synthesis of ammonite biostratigraphy, isotopic data and high precision U-Pb zircon dates from the Triassic-Jurassic (T-J) and Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Pl-To) boundaries demonstrating that these biotic crises are both associated with rapid change from an initial cool period to greenhouse conditions. We explain these transitions as a result of changing gas species emitted during the progressive thermal erosion of cratonic lithosphere by plume activity or internal heating of the lithosphere. Our petrological model for LIP magmatism argues that initial gas emission was dominated by sulfur liberated from sulfide-bearing cratonic lithosphere before CO2 became the dominant gas. This model offers an explanation of why LIPs erupted through oceanic lithosphere are not associated with climatic and biotic crises comparable to LIPs emitted through cratonic lithosphere. PMID:27009463

Enhanced aridity and atmospheric high-pressure stability over the western Mediterranean during the North Atlantic cold events of the past 50 k.y.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combourieu Nebout, N.; Turon, J. L.; Zahn, R.; Capotondi, L.; Londeix, L.; Pahnke, K.

2002-10-01

Multiproxy paleoenvironmental records (pollen and planktonic isotope) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 976 (Alboran Sea) document rapid ocean and climate variations during the last glacial that follow the Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations seen in the Greenland ice core records, thus suggesting a close link of the Mediterranean climate swings with North Atlantic climates. Continental conditions rapidly oscillated through cold-arid and warm-wet conditions in the course of stadial-interstadial climate jumps. At the time of Heinrich events, i.e., maximum meltwater flux to the North Atlantic, western Mediterranean marine microflora and microfauna show rapid cooling correlated with increasing continental dryness. Enhanced aridity conceivably points to prolonged wintertime stability of atmospheric high-pressure systems over the southwestern Mediterranean in conjunction with cooling of the North Atlantic.

Evaluating Cool Impervious Surfaces: Application to an Energy-Efficient Residential Roof and to City Pavements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosado, Pablo Javier

Summer urban heat island (UHI) refers to the phenomenon of having higher urban temperatures compared to the those in surrounding suburban and rural areas. Higher urban air temperatures lead to increased cooling demand, accelerates the formation of smog, and contributes to the generation of greenhouse gas emissions. Dark-colored impervious surfaces cover a significant fraction of an urban fabric, and as hot and dry surfaces, are a major contributor to the UHI effect. Adopting solar-reflective ("cool") roofs and cool pavements, and increasing the urban vegetation, are strategies proven to mitigate urban heat islands. These strategies often have an "indirect" effect (ambient cooling) and "direct" effect (change in solar energy flux entering the conditioned space) on the energy use of buildings. This work investigates some elements of the UHI mitigation strategies, specifically the annual direct effect of a cool roof, and the direct and indirect effects of cool pavements. The first topic researched in this paper consists in an experimental assessment of the direct effects from replacing a conventional dark roof with a highly energy-efficient cool roof. The study measures and calculates the annual benefits of the cool roof on the cooling and heating energy uses, and the associated emission reductions. The energy savings attributed to the cool roof are validated by measuring the difference between the homes in the heat loads that entered the conditioned space through the ceiling and HVAC ducts. Fractional annual cooling energy savings (26%) were 2.6 times the 10% daily cooling energy savings measured in a previous study that used a white coating to increase the albedo of an asphalt shingle roof by the same amount (0.44). The improved cooling energy savings (26% vs. 10%) may be attributed to the cool tile's above-sheathing ventilation, rather than to its high thermal mass. The roof also provided energy savings during the heating season, yielding fractional annual gas heating savings of 4% and electric heating savings of 3%. The slightly positive fractional annual heating energy savings likely resulted from the tile roof's high thermal capacitance, which increased the overnight temperature of the attic air. Thus cool tile roofs should be perceived as a technology that provides energy and environmental benefits during the cooling season as well as the heating season. The second topic investigates the direct and indirect effects of cool pavements on the energy use of California's building stock. First, a simple urban canyon model was developed to calculate the canyon albedo after the user provides the solar position, canyon orientation, and dimensions of the canyon walls, road, and setbacks. Next, a method is presented to correct the values of temperature changes obtained from previous urban climate models to values that would be obtained from canyon geometries that distinguish between road and setbacks (e.g. sidewalk, front yard). The new canyon model is used to scale the temperature changes obtained from a recent urban climate model that simulated the climatological impact of cool pavements on various California cities. The adjusted temperature changes are then combined with building energy simulations to investigate the effect of cool pavements on the cooling, heating, and lighting energy uses of buildings as well as the environmental impact related to these energy uses. Net (direct + indirect) conditioning (cooling + heating) energy savings and environmental savings from cool pavements were smaller in residential buildings than in commercial buildings. Additionally, residential buildings strongly dominate the building stock in all of the evaluated cities. Therefore, even though most cities yielded conditioning energy and environmental savings, they were small due to the minuscule savings from the residential buildings. When increasing the albedo by 0.20 of all public pavements in different California cities, Los Angeles was the city with the largest savings, yielding only 0.60% in Primary Energy Demand and 0.30% in Global Warming Potential (GWP). Some of the cities experienced even a small net penalty in GWP of up to 0.20%.

Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St. George, Scott; Meko, David M.; Evans, Michael N.

2008-09-01

A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring.

Changing Patterns of Fungal Toxins in Crops: Challenges for Analysts.

PubMed

Miller, J David

2016-07-01

This short review discusses the need to manage climate-driven expansion of old toxins in new geographic areas (e.g., aflatoxin or fumonisin in corn in historically cooler areas, and ergot where rainfall and cropping patterns have changed). In addition, a renewed consideration of the toxins that can occur in feed sources used in cool-season dairy areas is needed (e.g., silage and distillers dry grains with solubles). A separate issue concerns genetic changes that are occurring in the species that cause Fusarium head blight/Gibberella ear rot. Small differences in climate appear to determine the distribution of the two dominant populations (native to the new world and from Asia). The chemotype that produces deoxynivalenol via the monoacetate at the 3 position results in the accumulation of somewhat more deoxynivalenol than the native population, which involves the monoacetate at the 15 position. There are also genetic changes occurring that have resulted in populations that produce different metabolites. Similarly, an increase in the area where Aspergillus flavus can thrive and the discovery of the sexual stage of this fungus have raised the potential of genetic change accelerated by climate. To address all these issues, new methods and increased availability of reference standards, as well as training and awareness, will be required.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-12-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

PubMed Central

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-01-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions. PMID:27934933

Severest crisis overlooked—Worst disruption of terrestrial environments postdates the Permian–Triassic mass extinction

PubMed Central

Hochuli, Peter A.; Sanson-Barrera, Anna; Schneebeli-Hermann, Elke; Bucher, Hugo

2016-01-01

Generally Early Triassic floras are believed to be depauperate, suffering from protracted recovery following the Permian–Triassic extinction event. Here we present palynological data of an expanded East Greenland section documenting recovered floras in the basal Triassic (Griesbachian) and a subsequent fundamental floral turnover, postdating the Permian–Triassic boundary extinction by about 500 kyrs. This event is marked by a swap in dominating floral elements, changing from gymnosperm pollen-dominated associations in the Griesbachian to lycopsid spore-dominated assemblages in the Dienerian. This turnover coincides with an extreme δ13Corg negative shift revealing a severe environmental crisis, probably induced by volcanic outbursts of the Siberian Traps, accompanied by a climatic turnover, changing from cool and dry in the Griesbachian to hot and humid in the Dienerian. Estimates of sedimentation rates suggest that this environmental alteration took place within some 1000 years. Similar, coeval changes documented on the North Indian Margin (Pakistan) and the Bowen Basin (Australia) indicate the global extent of this crisis. Our results evidence the first profound disruption of the recovery of terrestrial environments about 500kyrs after the Permian–Triassic extinction event. It was followed by another crisis, about 1myrs later thus, the Early Triassic can be characterised as a time of successive environmental crises. PMID:27340926

Nonlinear dynamics of ice-wedge networks and resulting sensitivity to severe cooling events.

PubMed

Plug, L J; Werner, B T

2002-06-27

Patterns of subsurface wedges of ice that form along cooling-induced tension fractures, expressed at the ground surface by ridges or troughs spaced 10 30 m apart, are ubiquitous in polar lowlands. Fossilized ice wedges, which are widespread at lower latitudes, have been used to infer the duration and mean temperature of cold periods within Proterozoic and Quaternary climates, and recent climate trends have been inferred from fracture frequency in active ice wedges. Here we present simulations from a numerical model for the evolution of ice-wedge networks over a range of climate scenarios, based on the interactions between thermal tensile stress, fracture and ice wedges. We find that short-lived periods of severe cooling permanently alter the spacing between ice wedges as well as their fracture frequency. This affects the rate at which the widths of ice wedges increase as well as the network's response to subsequent climate change. We conclude that wedge spacing and width in ice-wedge networks mainly reflect infrequent episodes of rapidly falling ground temperatures rather than mean conditions.

Alpine soil carbon is vulnerable to rapid microbial decomposition under climate cooling.

PubMed

Wu, Linwei; Yang, Yunfeng; Wang, Shiping; Yue, Haowei; Lin, Qiaoyan; Hu, Yigang; He, Zhili; Van Nostrand, Joy D; Hale, Lauren; Li, Xiangzhen; Gilbert, Jack A; Zhou, Jizhong

2017-09-01

As climate cooling is increasingly regarded as important natural variability of long-term global warming trends, there is a resurging interest in understanding its impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, we report a soil transplant experiment from lower to higher elevations in a Tibetan alpine grassland to simulate the impact of cooling on ecosystem community structure and function. Three years of cooling resulted in reduced plant productivity and microbial functional potential (for example, carbon respiration and nutrient cycling). Microbial genetic markers associated with chemically recalcitrant carbon decomposition remained unchanged despite a decrease in genes associated with chemically labile carbon decomposition. As a consequence, cooling-associated changes correlated with a decrease in soil organic carbon (SOC). Extrapolation of these results suggests that for every 1 °C decrease in annual average air temperature, 0.1 Pg (0.3%) of SOC would be lost from the Tibetan plateau. These results demonstrate that microbial feedbacks to cooling have the potential to differentially impact chemically labile and recalcitrant carbon turnover, which could lead to strong, adverse consequences on soil C storage. Our findings are alarming, considering the frequency of short-term cooling and its scale to disrupt ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling.

Being "Nice" or Being "Normal": Girls Resisting Discourses of "Coolness"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paechter, Carrie; Clark, Sheryl

2016-01-01

In this paper we consider discourses of friendship and belonging mobilised by girls who are not part of the dominant "cool" group in one English primary school. We explore how, by investing in alternative and, at times, resistant, discourses of "being nice" and "being normal" these "non-cool" girls were able…

Role of bacterial adhesion in the microbial ecology of biofilms in cooling tower systems.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Zhang, Wei; Sileika, Tadas; Warta, Richard; Cianciotto, Nicholas P; Packman, Aaron

2009-01-01

The fate of the three heterotrophic biofilm forming bacteria, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Flavobacterium sp. in pilot scale cooling towers was evaluated both by observing the persistence of each species in the recirculating water and the formation of biofilms on steel coupons placed in each cooling tower water reservoir. Two different cooling tower experiments were performed: a short-term study (6 days) to observe the initial bacterial colonization of the cooling tower, and a long-term study (3 months) to observe the ecological dynamics with repeated introduction of the test strains. An additional set of batch experiments (6 days) was carried out to evaluate the adhesion of each strain to steel surfaces under similar conditions to those found in the cooling tower experiments. Substantial differences were observed in the microbial communities that developed in the batch systems and cooling towers. P. aeruginosa showed a low degree of adherence to steel surfaces both in batch and in the cooling towers, but grew much faster than K. pneumoniae and Flavobacterium in mixed-species biofilms and ultimately became the dominant organism in the closed batch systems. However, the low degree of adherence caused P. aeruginosa to be rapidly washed out of the open cooling tower systems, and Flavobacterium became the dominant microorganism in the cooling towers in both the short-term and long-term experiments. These results indicate that adhesion, retention and growth on solid surfaces play important roles in the bacterial community that develops in cooling tower systems.

Role of bacterial adhesion in the microbial ecology of biofilms in cooling tower systems

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Zhang, Wei; Sileika, Tadas; Warta, Richard; Cianciotto, Nicholas P.; Packman, Aaron

2009-01-01

The fate of the three heterotrophic biofilm forming bacteria, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Flavobacterium sp. in pilot scale cooling towers was evaluated both by observing the persistence of each species in the recirculating water and the formation of biofilms on steel coupons placed in each cooling tower water reservoir. Two different cooling tower experiments were performed: a short-term study (6 days) to observe the initial bacterial colonization of the cooling tower, and a long-term study (3 months) to observe the ecological dynamics with repeated introduction of the test strains. An additional set of batch experiments (6 days) was carried out to evaluate the adhesion of each strain to steel surfaces under similar conditions to those found in the cooling tower experiments. Substantial differences were observed in the microbial communities that developed in the batch systems and cooling towers. P. aeruginosa showed a low degree of adherence to steel surfaces both in batch and in the cooling towers, but grew much faster than K. pneumoniae and Flavobacterium in mixed-species biofilms and ultimately became the dominant organism in the closed batch systems. However, the low degree of adherence caused P. aeruginosa to be rapidly washed out of the open cooling tower systems, and Flavobacterium became the dominant microorganism in the cooling towers in both the short-term and long-term experiments. These results indicate that adhesion, retention and growth on solid surfaces play important roles in the bacterial community that develops in cooling tower systems. PMID:19177226

Effects of increasing aerosol on regional climate change in China: Observation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Leung, L.; Ghan, S. J.

2002-12-01

We present regional simulations of climate, aerosol properties, and direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol and analyze the pollutant emissions and observed climatic data during the latter decades of last century in China. The regional model generally captures the spatial distributions and seasonal pattern of temperature and precipitation. Aerosol extinction coefficient and aerosol optical depth are generally well simulated in both magnitude and spatial distribution, which provides a reliable foundation for estimating the radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol. The radiative forcing of aerosol is in the range of -1 to -14 W m-2 in autumn and summer and -1 to -9 W m-2 in spring and winter, with substantial spatial variability at the sub-regional scale. A strong maximum in negative radiative forcing corresponding to the maximum optical depth is found over the Sichuan Basin, where emission as well as relative humidity are high, and stagnant atmospheric conditions inhibit pollutants dispersion. Negative radiative forcing of aerosol induces a surface cooling, which is stronger in the range of -0.6 to -1.2oC in autumn and winter than in spring (-0.3 to -0.6oC) and summer (0.0 to -0.9oC) over the Sichuan Basin and East China due to more significant effects of cloud and precipitation in the summer and spring. Aerosol-induced cooling is mainly contributed by cooling in the daytime temperature. The cooling reaches a maximum and is statistically significant in the Sichuan Basin. The effect of aerosol on precipitation is not evident in our simulations. The temporal and spatial patterns of temperature trends observed in the second half of the twentieth century, including the asymmetric daily maximum and minimum temperature trends, are at least qualitatively consistent with the simulated aerosol-induced cooling over the Sichuan Basin and East China. It supports the hypothesis that the observed temperature trends during the latter decades of the twentieth century, especially the cooling trends over the Sichuan Basin and some parts of East China, which are exceptions to the large scale warming trend in the northern hemisphere, are at least partly related to the cooling induced by atmospheric aerosol loading that has been increasing since the middle of the last century.

Stable isotope compositions of speleothems from the last interglacial - Spatial patterns of climate fluctuations in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demény, Attila; Kern, Zoltán; Czuppon, György; Németh, Alexandra; Leél-Őssy, Szabolcs; Siklósy, Zoltán; Lin, Ke; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Vennemann, Torsten W.; Haszpra, László

2017-04-01

Studies on the last interglacial (LIG) can provide information on how our environment behaved in a period of slightly higher global temperatures at about 125 ± 4 ka, even if it is not the best analogue for the Holocene. The available LIG climate proxy records are usually better preserved and can be studied at a higher resolution than those of the preceding interglacials, allowing detailed comparisons. This paper presents complex stable hydrogen, carbon and oxygen isotope records obtained for carbonate (δ13C and δ18Ocarb) and fluid inclusion hosted water (δD and δ18Ow) of a stalagmite from the Baradla Cave system in Central Europe that covers most of the LIG, as proven by U-Th dates. Comparing its C and O isotope data with records reported for other speleothem (cave-hosted carbonate) deposits from Europe revealed the complex behavior of these climate proxies, with a concerted relative increase in 18O of carbonates from 128 to 120 ka and synchronized shifts in the opposite direction after 119 ka. The hydrogen isotope analyses of inclusion-hosted water extracted from the BAR-II stalagmite also correspond to the regional climate proxy records, with meaningful deviations from global temperature trends. Beside following the general paleotemperature pattern from the climate optimum (high δD values up to -64‰ around 120 ka) to the subsequent cooling starting at about 119 ka (low δD values down to -90‰ at about 109 ka), a period between 126.5 and 123 ka with low δD values (down to -81‰) is detected in the BAR-II stalagmite. Although the isotope shifts are muted in the C-O isotope data of carbonate due to competitive fractionation processes, the δ13C data show a positive relationship with the δD pattern, indicating humidity - and possibly temperature - variations. The periods with low δD values fit well to temperature and humidity changes inferred from proxy records from western Europe to the eastern Mediterranean. Spatial distributions of these variables show, that at about 125 ± 2 ka the Mediterranean region was characterized by warm, humid conditions and enhanced seasonality with elevated winter precipitation. The combined interpretation of stable isotope data revealed that the Alpine and Mediterranean regions behaved differently during Greenland Stadial 26 (GS26, ∼119 to 116.2 ka). While the Alpine records fluctuated in close agreement with the Central Greenland ice core δ18O data, the BAR-II stalagmite show a positive δ18Ocarb anomaly. The Baradla data indicate enhanced aridity and seasonality for a part of GS26, with the relative dominance of summer precipitation and Mediterranean moisture contribution. Following the GS26 event, the effect of long-term global cooling becomes dominant in the Baradla isotope records and leads to glacial inception at about 109 ka.

Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

PubMed Central

Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier; Drijfhout, Sybren; Mary, Yannick; Bennabi, Amine

2017-01-01

Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. PMID:28198383

Effects of Building‒roof Cooling on Flow and Distribution of Reactive Pollutants in street canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S. J.; Choi, W.; Kim, J.; Jeong, J. H.

2016-12-01

The effects of building‒roof cooling on flow and dispersion of reactive pollutants were investigated in the framework of flow dynamics and chemistry using a coupled CFD‒chemistry model. For this, flow characteristics were analyzed first in street canyons in the presence of building‒roof cooling. A portal vortex was generated in street canyon, producing dominant reverse and outward flows near the ground in all the cases. The building‒roof cooling increased horizontal wind speeds at the building roof and strengthened the downward motion near the downwind building in the street canyon, resultantly intensifying street canyon vortex strength. The flow affected the distribution of primary and secondary pollutants. Concentrations of primary pollutants such as NOx, VOC and CO was high near the upwind building because the reverse flows were dominant at street level, making this area the downwind region of emission sources. Concentration of secondary pollutant such as O3 was lower than the background near the ground, where NOX concentrations were high. Building‒roof cooling decreased the concentration of primary pollutants in contrasted to those under non‒cooling conditions. In contrast, building‒roof cooling increased O3 by reducing NO concentrations in urban street canyon compared to concentrations under non‒cooling conditions.

Body-size structure of Central Iberian mammal fauna reveals semidesertic conditions during the middle Miocene Global Cooling Event.

PubMed

Menéndez, Iris; Gómez Cano, Ana R; García Yelo, Blanca A; Domingo, Laura; Domingo, M Soledad; Cantalapiedra, Juan L; Blanco, Fernando; Hernández Fernández, Manuel

2017-01-01

We developed new quantitative palaeoclimatic inference models based on the body-size structure of mammal faunas from the Old World tropics and applied them to the Somosaguas fossil site (middle Miocene, central Iberian Peninsula). Twenty-six mammal species have been described at this site, including proboscideans, ungulates, carnivores, insectivores, lagomorphs and rodents. Our analyses were based on multivariate and bivariate regression models correlating climatic data and body-size structure of 63 modern mammal assemblages from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent. The results showed an average temperature of the coldest month higher than 26°C for the Somosaguas fossil site, a mean annual thermal amplitude around 10°C, a drought length of 10 months, and an annual total precipitation greater than 200 mm per year, which are climate conditions typical of an ecotonal zone between the savanna and desert biomes. These results are congruent with the aridity peaks described over the middle Aragonian of Spain and particularly in the local biozone E, which includes Somosaguas. The aridity increase detected in this biozone is associated with the Middle Miocene Global Cooling Event. The environment of Somosaguas around 14 Ma was similar to the current environment in the Sahel region of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, the boundary area between the Kalahari and the Namib in Southern Africa, south-central Arabia, or eastern Pakistan and northwestern India. The distribution of modern vegetation in these regions follows a complex mosaic of plant communities, dominated by scattered xerophilous shrublands, semidesert grasslands, and vegetation linked to seasonal watercourses and ponds.

Body-size structure of Central Iberian mammal fauna reveals semidesertic conditions during the middle Miocene Global Cooling Event

PubMed Central

Gómez Cano, Ana R.; García Yelo, Blanca A.; Domingo, Laura; Domingo, M. Soledad; Cantalapiedra, Juan L.; Blanco, Fernando; Hernández Fernández, Manuel

2017-01-01

We developed new quantitative palaeoclimatic inference models based on the body-size structure of mammal faunas from the Old World tropics and applied them to the Somosaguas fossil site (middle Miocene, central Iberian Peninsula). Twenty-six mammal species have been described at this site, including proboscideans, ungulates, carnivores, insectivores, lagomorphs and rodents. Our analyses were based on multivariate and bivariate regression models correlating climatic data and body-size structure of 63 modern mammal assemblages from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent. The results showed an average temperature of the coldest month higher than 26°C for the Somosaguas fossil site, a mean annual thermal amplitude around 10°C, a drought length of 10 months, and an annual total precipitation greater than 200 mm per year, which are climate conditions typical of an ecotonal zone between the savanna and desert biomes. These results are congruent with the aridity peaks described over the middle Aragonian of Spain and particularly in the local biozone E, which includes Somosaguas. The aridity increase detected in this biozone is associated with the Middle Miocene Global Cooling Event. The environment of Somosaguas around 14 Ma was similar to the current environment in the Sahel region of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, the boundary area between the Kalahari and the Namib in Southern Africa, south-central Arabia, or eastern Pakistan and northwestern India. The distribution of modern vegetation in these regions follows a complex mosaic of plant communities, dominated by scattered xerophilous shrublands, semidesert grasslands, and vegetation linked to seasonal watercourses and ponds. PMID:29073193

Paleoclimate of the Earth and solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dergachev, V. A.

2017-09-01

The paper focuses on climate variations caused by the orbital effect and solar activity over the last one million years and oscillations (warming or cooling) of the climate since the last ice age retreat. Attention is paid to a significant discrepancy in the trend of global temperature change during the modern interglacial epoch (Holocene) obtained by various methods. A long-term cooling trend was observed in the summer temperature of the Northern Hemisphere during the last 2000 years.

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2013-01-01

30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records presented here (effectively an analysis of source data that PRISM uses) are meant to provide a robust summary of climatic changes in SEKI.

Low-latitude arc–continent collision as a driver for global cooling

PubMed Central

Jagoutz, Oliver; Macdonald, Francis A.; Royden, Leigh

2016-01-01

New constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Neo-Tethys Ocean indicate that at ∼90–70 Ma and at ∼50–40 Ma, vast quantities of mafic and ultramafic rocks were emplaced at low latitude onto continental crust within the tropical humid belt. These emplacement events correspond temporally with, and are potential agents for, the global climatic cooling events that terminated the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum and the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We model the temporal effects of CO2 drawdown from the atmosphere due to chemical weathering of these obducted ophiolites, and of CO2 addition to the atmosphere from arc volcanism in the Neo-Tethys, between 100 and 40 Ma. Modeled variations in net CO2-drawdown rates are in excellent agreement with contemporaneous variation of ocean bottom water temperatures over this time interval, indicating that ophiolite emplacement may have played a major role in changing global climate. We demonstrate that both the lithology of the obducted rocks (mafic/ultramafic) and a tropical humid climate with high precipitation rate are needed to produce significant consumption of CO2. Based on these results, we suggest that the low-latitude closure of ocean basins along east–west trending plate boundaries may also have initiated other long-term global cooling events, such as Middle to Late Ordovician cooling and glaciation associated with the closure of the Iapetus Ocean. PMID:27091966

Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Kyle, G. Page

This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3–7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% overmore » the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35–40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.« less

Low-latitude arc-continent collision as a driver for global cooling.

PubMed

Jagoutz, Oliver; Macdonald, Francis A; Royden, Leigh

2016-05-03

New constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Neo-Tethys Ocean indicate that at ∼90-70 Ma and at ∼50-40 Ma, vast quantities of mafic and ultramafic rocks were emplaced at low latitude onto continental crust within the tropical humid belt. These emplacement events correspond temporally with, and are potential agents for, the global climatic cooling events that terminated the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum and the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We model the temporal effects of CO2 drawdown from the atmosphere due to chemical weathering of these obducted ophiolites, and of CO2 addition to the atmosphere from arc volcanism in the Neo-Tethys, between 100 and 40 Ma. Modeled variations in net CO2-drawdown rates are in excellent agreement with contemporaneous variation of ocean bottom water temperatures over this time interval, indicating that ophiolite emplacement may have played a major role in changing global climate. We demonstrate that both the lithology of the obducted rocks (mafic/ultramafic) and a tropical humid climate with high precipitation rate are needed to produce significant consumption of CO2 Based on these results, we suggest that the low-latitude closure of ocean basins along east-west trending plate boundaries may also have initiated other long-term global cooling events, such as Middle to Late Ordovician cooling and glaciation associated with the closure of the Iapetus Ocean.

Impact of longer-term modest climate shifts on architecture of high-frequency sequences (Cyclothems), Pennsylvanian of midcontinent U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feldman, H.R.; Franseen, E.K.; Joeckel, R.M.; Heckel, P.H.

2005-01-01

Pennsylvanian glacioeustatic cyclothems exposed in Kansas and adjacent areas provide a unique opportunity to test models of the impact of relative sea level and climate on stratal architecture. A succession of eight of these high-frequency sequences, traced along dip for 500 km, reveal that modest climate shifts from relatively dry-seasonal to relatively wet-seasonal with a duration of several sequences (???600,000 to 1 million years) had a dominant impact on facies, sediment dispersal patterns, and sequence architecture. The climate shifts documented herein are intermediate, both in magnitude and duration, between previously documented longer-term climate shifts throughout much of the Pennsylvanian and shorter-term shifts described within individual sequences. Climate indicators are best preserved at sequence boundaries and in incised-valley fills of the lowstand systems tracts (LST). Relatively drier climate indicators include high-chroma paleosols, typically with pedogenic carbonates, and plant assemblages that are dominated by gymnosperms, mostly xerophytic walchian conifers. The associated valleys are small (4 km wide and >20 m deep), and dominated by quartz sandstones derived from distant source areas, reflecting large drainage networks. Transgressive systems tracts (TST) in all eight sequences gen erally are characterized by thin, extensive limestones and thin marine shales, suggesting that the dominant control on TST facies distribution was the sequestration of siliciclastic sediment in updip positions. Highstand systems tracts (HST) were significantly impacted by the intermediate-scale climate cycle in that HSTs from relatively drier climates consist of thin marine shales overlain by extensive, thick regressive limestones, whereas HSTs from relatively wetter climates are dominated by thick marine shales. Previously documented relative sea-level changes do not track the climate cycles, indicating that climate played a role distinct from that of relative sea-level change. These intermediate-scale modest climate shifts had a dominant impact on sequence architecture. This independent measure of climate and relative sea level may allow the testing of models of climate and sediment supply based on modern systems. Copyright ?? 2005, SEPM.

From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands.

PubMed

Olsen, Siri L; Töpper, Joachim P; Skarpaas, Olav; Vandvik, Vigdis; Klanderud, Kari

2016-05-01

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ultimate Eocene (Priabonian) Chondrichthyans (Holocephali, Elasmobranchii) of Antarctica

PubMed Central

Kriwet, Jürgen; Engelbrecht, Andrea; Mörs, Thomas; Reguero, Marcelo; Pfaff, Cathrin

2017-01-01

The Eocene La Meseta Formation on Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, is known for its remarkable wealth of fossil remains of chondrichthyans and teleosts. Chondrichthyans seemingly were dominant elements in the Antarctic Paleogene fish fauna, but decreased in abundance from middle to late Eocene, during which time remains of bony fishes increase. This decline of chondrichthyans at the end of the Eocene generally is related to sudden cooling of seawater, reduction in shelf area, and increasing shelf depth due to the onset of the Antarctic thermal isolation. The last chondrichthyan records known so far include a chimeroid tooth plate from TELM 6 (Lutetian) and a single pristiophorid rostral spine from TELM 7 (Priabonian). Here, we present new chondrichthyan records of Squalus, Squatina, Pristiophorus, Striatolamia, Palaeohypotodus, Carcharocles, and Ischyodus from the upper parts of TELM 7 (Priabonian), including the first record of Carcharocles sokolovi from Antarctica. This assemblage suggests that chondrichthyans persisted much longer in Antarctic waters despite rather cool sea surface temperatures of approximately 5°C. The final disappearance of chondrichthyans at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary concurs with abrupt ice sheet formation in Antarctica. Diversity patterns of chondrichthyans throughout the La Meseta Formation appear to be related to climatic conditions rather than plate tectonics. PMID:28298806

Ultimate Eocene (Priabonian) Chondrichthyans (Holocephali, Elasmobranchii) of Antarctica.

PubMed

Kriwet, Jürgen; Engelbrecht, Andrea; Mörs, Thomas; Reguero, Marcelo; Pfaff, Cathrin

2016-01-01

The Eocene La Meseta Formation on Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, is known for its remarkable wealth of fossil remains of chondrichthyans and teleosts. Chondrichthyans seemingly were dominant elements in the Antarctic Paleogene fish fauna, but decreased in abundance from middle to late Eocene, during which time remains of bony fishes increase. This decline of chondrichthyans at the end of the Eocene generally is related to sudden cooling of seawater, reduction in shelf area, and increasing shelf depth due to the onset of the Antarctic thermal isolation. The last chondrichthyan records known so far include a chimeroid tooth plate from TELM 6 (Lutetian) and a single pristiophorid rostral spine from TELM 7 (Priabonian). Here, we present new chondrichthyan records of Squalus , Squatina , Pristiophorus , Striatolamia , Palaeohypotodus , Carcharocles , and Ischyodus from the upper parts of TELM 7 (Priabonian), including the first record of Carcharocles sokolovi from Antarctica. This assemblage suggests that chondrichthyans persisted much longer in Antarctic waters despite rather cool sea surface temperatures of approximately 5°C. The final disappearance of chondrichthyans at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary concurs with abrupt ice sheet formation in Antarctica. Diversity patterns of chondrichthyans throughout the La Meseta Formation appear to be related to climatic conditions rather than plate tectonics.

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

PubMed

2015-04-30

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

A possible impact of cooling over the Tibetan Plateau on the mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Liya; Wang, Huijun; Chen, Fahu; Jiang, Dabang

2006-12-01

By using a 9-level global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the authors investigated the response of the East Asian monsoon climate to changes both in orbital forcing and the snow and glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau at the mid-Holocene, about 600 calendar years before the present (6 kyr BP). With the Earth’s orbital parameters appropriate for the mid-Holocene, the IAP9L-AGCM computed warmer and wetter conditions in boreal summer than for the present day. Under the precondition of continental snow and glacier cover existing over part of the Tibetan Plateau at the mid-Holocene, the authors examined the regional climate response to the Tibetan Plateau cooling. The simulations indicated that climate changes in South Asia and parts of central Asia as well as in East Asia are sensitive to the Tibetan Plateau cooling at the mid-Holocene, showing a significant decrease in precipitation in northern India, northern China and southern Mongolia and an increase in Southeast Asia during boreal summer. The latter seems to correspond to the weakening, southeastward shift of the Asian summer monsoon system resulting from reduced heat contrast between the Eurasian continent and the Pacific and Indian Oceans when a cooling over the Tibetan Plateau was imposed. The simulation results suggest that the snow and glacier environment over the Tibetan Plateau is an important factor for mid-Holocene climate change in the areas highly influenced by the Asian monsoon.

Floral responses to the Late Paleozoic deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Looy, C. V.; DiMichele, W. A.

2011-12-01

The current human-induced thawing of ice house Earth prompts the careful examination of similar earlier events and their biotic consequences. The most recent full transition from a cool earth to a warm world took place in the Early to Middle Permian. Against a background of global warming, plant communities were affected globally resulting in migrations, extinctions and changed evolutionary patterns as a response to the environmental changes. The collapse of the southern hemisphere ice-sheets resulted in significant changes, not just at higher latitudes, but also in the tropics where the rainfall regime changed from seasonally dry to seasonally wet. In the Early Permian tropics - in areas where net sedimentation facilitates fossilization, to be more specific - vegetation rich in walchian conifers began to replace the spore plants and seed ferns that previously dominated the Late Pennsylvanian wetlands. The replacing drier floras probably lived in the basinal lowlands as well, but episodically at the drier times of climate cycles. New finds within the tropics of latest Early to Middle Permian-age, in particular from north-central Texas, indicate the existence of floras which were adapted to even more extended periods of drought. These were populated by the more derived voltzian conifers and other seed plants, such as cycads. Surprisingly, the clades in these floras were until recently only known from the tens-of-millions-of-years younger Late Permian and Early Mesozoic, where they were the dominant forms. These occurrences demonstrate that even more derived groups were already in existence and well differentiated by the Early Permian, outside the window of preservation. This pattern of change in conifers and their communities from north-central Texas is unique in that it represents the best documented record in the Phanerozoic of terrestrial ecosystem response to a change from a global cool-mode to warm-mode Earth. Conifers serve as "marker plants" for the progressively more derived and more xeric floras that appear during the advancing deglaciation. This record has the potential to serve as a model for the early evolution of conifers and their communities; and the impact of prolonged climate change on the evolution of such land plants.

Solar heating and cooling technical data and systems analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, D. L.

1977-01-01

The research activities described herein were concentrated on the areas of economics, heating and cooling systems, architectural design, materials characteristics, climatic conditions, educational information packages, and evaluation of solar energy systems and components.

Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

A cooling flow in a high-redshift, X-ray-selected cluster of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesci, Roberto; Gioia, Isabella M.; Maccacaro, Tommaso; Morris, Simon L.; Perola, Giuseppe C.; Schild, Rudolph E.; Wolter, Anna

1989-09-01

The X-ray cluster of galaxies IE 0839.9 + 2938 was serendipitously discovered with the Einstein Observatory. CCD imaging at R and V wavelengths show that the color of the dominant elliptical galaxy of this cluster is significantly bluer than the colors of the next brightest cluster galaxies. Strong emission lines, typical of cD galaxies with cooling flows, are present in the spectrum of the dominant galaxy, from which a redshift of 0.193 is derived. The emitting line region is spatially resolved with an extension of about 13 kpc. All the collected data suggest that this cluster is one of the most distant cooling flow clusters known to date.

A cooling flow in a high-redshift, X-ray-selected cluster of galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesci, Roberto; Perola, Giuseppe C.; Gioia, Isabella M.; Maccacaro, Tommaso; Morris, Simon L.

1989-01-01

The X-ray cluster of galaxies IE 0839.9 + 2938 was serendipitously discovered with the Einstein Observatory. CCD imaging at R and V wavelengths show that the color of the dominant elliptical galaxy of this cluster is significantly bluer than the colors of the next brightest cluster galaxies. Strong emission lines, typical of cD galaxies with cooling flows, are present in the spectrum of the dominant galaxy, from which a redshift of 0.193 is derived. The emitting line region is spatially resolved with an extension of about 13 kpc. All the collected data suggest that this cluster is one of the most distant cooling flow clusters known to date.

A continuous latitudinal energy balance model to explore non-uniform climate engineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonetti, F.; McInnes, C. R.

2016-12-01

Current concentrations of atmospheric CO2 exceed measured historical levels in modern times, largely attributed to anthropogenic forcing since the industrial revolution. The required decline in emissions rates has never been achieved leading to recent interest in climate engineering for future risk-mitigation strategies. Climate engineering aims to offset human-driven climate change. It involves techniques developed both to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods) and to counteract the radiative forcing that it generates (Solar Radiation Management (SRM) methods). In order to investigate effects of SRM technologies for climate engineering, an analytical model describing the main dynamics of the Earth's climate has been developed. The model is a time-dependent Energy Balance Model (EBM) with latitudinal resolution and allows for the evaluation of non-uniform climate engineering strategies. A significant disadvantage of climate engineering techniques involving the management of solar radiation is regional disparities in cooling. This model offers an analytical approach to design multi-objective strategies that counteract climate change on a regional basis: for example, to cool the Artic and restrict undesired impacts at mid-latitudes, or to control the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using the Green's function approach the resulting partial differential equation allows for the computation of the surface temperature as a function of time and latitude when a 1% per year increase in the CO2 concentration is considered. After the validation of the model through comparisons with high fidelity numerical models, it will be used to explore strategies for the injection of the aerosol precursors in the stratosphere. In particular, the model involves detailed description of the optical properties of the particles, the wash-out dynamics and the estimation of the radiative cooling they can generate.

Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yong Sun; Jang, Chan Joo; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-03-01

The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of this low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variance and its dynamic relationship with large-scale climate variability through cyclostationary orthogonal function analysis for the 1982-2014 period. Both regressed surface winds on the primary mode of the YECS SST and trends in air-sea heat fluxes demonstrate that the intensification of the northerly winds in winter contribute largely to the recent cooling trend by increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. As a localized oceanic response to these winds, the upwind flow seems to bring warm waters and partially counteracts the basin-scale cooling, thus contributing to a weakening of the cooling trend along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. In the context of the large-scale climate variabilities, a strong relationship between the YECS SST variability and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) became weak considerably during the recent cooling period after the late 1990s as the PDO signals appeared to be confined within the eastern basin of the North Pacific in association with the regime shift. In addition to this decoupling of the YECS SST from the PDO, the intensifying Siberian High pressure system likely caused the enhanced northerly winds, leading to the recent cooling trend. These findings highlight relative roles of the PDO and the Siberian High in shaping the YECS SST variance through the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and attendant oceanic advection.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating temperature-induced load but also by lessening water- and temperature-based performance constraints. Policy impacts are nuanced and region-specific, and this analysis underscores the importance of climate mitigation policy to regional electricity system planning decisions.

Detection of photosynthetic responses of cool-temperate forests following extreme climate events using Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Knohl, A.; Herbst, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Yokozawa, M.

2016-12-01

The increase in extreme climate events associated with ongoing global warming may create severe damage to terrestrial ecosystems, changing plant structure and the eco-physiological functions that regulate ecosystem carbon exchange. However, most damage is usually due to moderate, rather than catastrophic, disturbances. The nature of plant functional responses to such disturbances, and the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle, remain poorly understood. To unravel the scientific question, tower-based eddy covariance data in the cool-temperate forests were used to constrain plant eco-physiological parameters in a persimoneous ecosystem model that may have affected carbon dynamics following extreme climate events using the statistic Bayesian inversion approach. In the present study, we raised two types of extreme events relevant for cool-temperate regions, i.e. a typhoon with mechanistic foliage destraction and a heat wave with severe drought. With appropriate evaluation of parameter and predictive uncertainties, the inversion analysis shows annual trajectory of activated photosynthetic responses following climate extremes compared the pre-disturbance state in each forest. We address that forests with moderate disturbance show substantial and rapid photosynthetic recovery, enhanced productivity, and, thus, ecosystem carbon exchange, although the effect of extreme climatic events varies depending on the stand successional phase and the type, intensity, timing and legacy of the disturbance.

The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, Matt; Haywood, Jim M.; Collins, Mat; Jones, Andy

2018-01-01

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a coupled climate model, HadGEM2-ES, is used to investigate the response to idealised energy perturbations in the tropics and extratropics, in both the northern and southern hemispheres, through the imposition of stratospheric aerosols that reflect incoming radiation. The impact on the tropical climate of high and low latitude forcing strongly contrasts, with large changes in tropical precipitation and modulation of the DI bias when the tropics are cooled as precipitation moves away from the cooled hemisphere. These responses are muted when the extratropics are cooled, as the meridional energy transport anomalies that are excited by these energy budget anomalies are partitioned between the atmosphere and ocean. The results here highlight the persistence of the DI bias in HadGEM2-ES, indicating why little progress has been made in rectifying these problems through many generations of climate models. A highly linear relationship between cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, tropical precipitation asymmetry and tropical sea surface temperature biases is also demonstrated, giving some suggestion as to where improvements in these large scale, persistent biases may be achieved.

The Many Problems with Geoengineering Using Stratospheric Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, Alan

2009-05-01

In response to the global warming problem, there has been a recent renewed call for geoengineering ``solutions'' involving injecting particles into the stratosphere or blocking sunlight with satellites between the Sun and Earth. While volcanic eruptions have been suggested as innocuous examples of stratospheric aerosols cooling the planet, the volcano analog actually argues against geoengineering because of ozone depletion and regional hydrologic and temperature responses. In this talk, I consider the suggestion to create an artificial stratospheric aerosol layer. No systems to conduct geoengineering now exist, but a comparison of different proposed stratospheric injection schemes, airplanes, balloons, artillery, and a space elevator, shows that using airplanes would not be that expensive. We simulated the climate response to both tropical and Arctic stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol precursors using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We simulated the injection of SO2 and the model converts it to sulfate aerosols, transports them and removes them through dry and wet deposition, and calculates the climate response to the radiative forcing from the aerosols. We conducted simulations of future climate with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B business-as-usual scenario both with and without geoengineering, and compare the results. We found that if there were a way to continuously inject SO2 into the lower stratosphere, it would produce global cooling. Acid deposition from the sulfate would not be enough to disturb most ecosystems. Tropical SO2 injection would produce sustained cooling over most of the world, with more cooling over continents. Arctic SO2 injection would not just cool the Arctic. But both tropical and Arctic SO2 injection would disrupt the Asian and African summer monsoons, reducing precipitation to the food supply for billions of people. These regional climate anomalies are but one of many reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea. I also discuss 19 other reasons. Global efforts to mitigate anthropogenic emissions and to adapt to climate change are a much better way to channel our resources to address anthropogenic global warming.

Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production: a comparison with biogeochemical effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caiazzo, Fabio; Malina, Robert; Staples, Mark D.; Wolfe, Philip J.; Yim, Steve H. L.; Barrett, Steven R. H.

2014-01-01

Lifecycle analysis is a tool widely used to evaluate the climate impact of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the production and use of biofuels. In this paper we employ an augmented lifecycle framework that includes climate impacts from changes in surface albedo due to land use change. We consider eleven land-use change scenarios for the cultivation of biomass for middle distillate fuel production, and compare our results to previous estimates of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for the same set of land-use change scenarios in terms of CO2e per unit of fuel energy. We find that two of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a warming effect due to changes in surface albedo, compared to conventional fuel, the largest of which is for replacement of desert land with salicornia cultivation. This corresponds to 222 gCO2e/MJ, equivalent to 3890% and 247% of the lifecycle GHG emissions of fuels derived from salicornia and crude oil, respectively. Nine of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a cooling effect, the largest of which is for the replacement of tropical rainforests with soybean cultivation. This corresponds to - 161 gCO2e/MJ, or - 28% and - 178% of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of fuels derived from soybean and crude oil, respectively. These results indicate that changes in surface albedo have the potential to dominate the climate impact of biofuels, and we conclude that accounting for changes in surface albedo is necessary for a complete assessment of the aggregate climate impacts of biofuel production and use.

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Historical anthropogenic radiative forcing of changes in biogenic secondary aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acosta Navarro, Juan; D'Andrea, Stephen; Pierce, Jeffrey; Ekman, Annica; Struthers, Hamish; Zorita, Eduardo; Guenther, Alex; Arneth, Almut; Smolander, Sampo; Kaplan, Jed; Farina, Salvatore; Scott, Catherine; Rap, Alexandru; Farmer, Delphine; Spracklen, Domink; Riipinen, Ilona

2016-04-01

Human activities have lead to changes in the energy balance of the Earth and the global climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosols are the second largest contributor to climate change after greenhouse gases since 1750 A.D. Land-use practices and other environmental drivers have caused changes in the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) well before 1750 A.D, possibly causing climate effects through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Two numerical emission models LPJ-GUESS and MEGAN were used to quantify the changes in aerosol forming BVOC emissions in the past millennium. A chemical transport model of the atmosphere (GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) was driven with those BVOC emissions to quantify the effects on radiation caused by millennial changes in SOA. We found that global isoprene emissions decreased after 1800 A.D. by about 12% - 15%. This decrease was dominated by losses of natural vegetation, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions increased by about 2% - 10%, driven mostly by rising surface air temperatures. From 1000 A.D. to 1800 A.D, isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions decline by 3% - 8% driven by both, natural vegetation losses, and the moderate global cooling between the medieval climate anomaly and the little ice age. The millennial reduction in BVOC emissions lead to a 0.5% to 2% reduction in climatically relevant aerosol particles (> 80 nm) and cause a direct radiative forcing between +0.02 W/m² and +0.07 W/m², and an indirect radiative forcing between -0.02 W/m² and +0.02 W/m².

Fish like it Hot? The response of ichthyolith accumulation to changing climates of the Paleogene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibert, E. C.; Zill, M. E.; Bryant, R. M.; Graves, L. G.; Norris, R. D.

2014-12-01

It has been hypothesized that the production of fish in the water column is related to the amount of primary production in the surface waters. Most future Earth scenarios suggest that as the climate warms, increased surface ocean stratification will decrease nutrient availability and therefore net primary productivity and fish production. Here we calculate accumulation rates of ichthyoliths (microfossil fish teeth and shark dermal scales) throughout the Paleogene and find that ichthyolith accumulation is inversely related to hypothesized changes in primary productivity, but is positively related to ocean temperature. At DSDP Site 596 in the South Pacific, and ODP Site 1258 from the equatorial Atlantic, accumulation of fish fossils increase 6-10 fold from the relatively cool Paleocene into the warm Early Eocene Climate Optimum. In contrast, cooling and increased biosilica deposition at the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) Boundary suggests that the marine ecosystem switched to a highly productive diatom-dominated ocean, which should favor short, efficient food chains and increased fish production. However, we find that at both Pacific DSDP Site 596 and Atlantic DSDP Site 522, fish accumulation drops by about 50% across the E/O. Indeed, this relation between ichthyolith accumulation and δ18O-estimated paleotemperature is also seen in the Oligocene, at North Pacific ODP Site 886, where warming in the middle Oligocene is mirrored by an increase in ichthyolith accumulation. It appears that ichthyolith accumulation rate may not be purely an effect of total primary production in the water column but rather, may reflect a fundamental response in fish physiology or ecosystem efficiency to warmer water. It has been documented that respiration is faster and more efficient in warm waters, and this may help generate more efficient food web links that compensate for any decrease in primary productivity caused by global warming. Indeed, it appears that fish seem to thrive as the temperature goes up.

Late Pliocene cooling, sea ice and the establishment of a Ross Sea polynya: Geochemical and diatom assemblage constraints from McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C.; Dunbar, R. B.; Sjunneskog, C. M.; Mucciarone, D. A.; Winter, D.; Olney, M.; Tuzzi, E.; McKay, R. M.; Scherer, R. P.

2010-12-01

The marine sediment cores collected by the Antarctic Geological Drilling (ANDRILL) Program from sites beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf (MIS; Core AND-1B) and in Southern McMurdo Sound (SMS; Core AND-2A) represent the most complete record to date of Neogene climate evolution proximal to the Antarctic continent. Diatom-rich lithologic units alternate with glacial sediments throughout the Pliocene and early Pleistocene of AND-1B; each diatom-rich unit within this oscillating record has distinctive geochemical and diatom assemblage characteristics and most are interpreted to preserve single interglacial intervals of 40-thousand-year glacial/interglacial cycles. Though the dramatic Pliocene glacial/interglacial oscillations recorded at the MIS site are absent in the shallower SMS record, AND-2A preserves a single diverse late Pliocene diatom assemblage, providing an additional constraint on Ross Sea Pliocene climate. Here, we focus on the reconstruction of sea surface conditions from four discrete AND-1B interglacial units deposited ~3.2, 3.0, 2.9, and 2.6 Ma. Diatom assemblages record the onset of Plio-Pleistocene cooling in the Ross Sea at 3.2 Ma, intensifying at 3.0 Ma, and suggest spring blooms in a surface ocean seasonally stratified by sea ice melt. Following the initial cooling, an increase in warm-water species at 2.9 and 2.6 Ma records a temporary late Pliocene reversal in the cooling trend. The Pliocene diatom-bearing interval in AND-2A is equivalent to the 2.6 Ma diatomite, providing further evidence for late Pliocene reversion to warmer open ocean conditions. Cooling resumes in the early Pleistocene, but sea-ice related diatoms, which dominate late Pleistocene and recent Antarctic sediments, are present only as minor components throughout the ANDRILL records. Sedimentary δ13C and δ15N in the AND-1B diatomite units provide additional insights into Pliocene evolution of sea ice, stratification, and primary productivity. For AND-1B diatomite units younger than 3.2 Ma, δ13C and δ15N vary in phase, the amplitude of δ13C fluctuations increases progressively up section, and peak interglacial δ15N trends toward more positive values, reflecting increasing variability in surface-water stratification within individual glacial minima. During the peaks of Late Pliocene glacial minima, negative δ13C values likely indicate enhanced wind mixing and summer polynya formation over AND-1B, while more positive values during the start and end of glacial minima indicate increased stratification due to sea ice melt or reduced wind stress. In sequence, these units offer a unique perspective on the changing character of the interglacial environment in the Ross Embayment spanning the transition from the mid-Pliocene climatic optimum into modern cold-polar conditions.

A Combined Solar and Geomagnetic Index for Thermospheric Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, Linda; Mlynczak, Marty

2015-01-01

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 Â is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. Physically, changes in NO emission are due to changes in temperature, atomic oxygen, and the NO density. These physical changes however are driven by changes in solar irradiance and changes in geomagnetic conditions. We show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (Watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F10.7, Ap, and Dst indices. This fit enables several fundamental properties of NO cooling to be determined as well as their variability with time, permitting reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to be solar cycle dependent. This reconstruction provides a long-term time series of an integral radiative constraint on thermospheric climate that can be used to test climate models.

Regional Modeling of Dust Mass Balance and Radiative Forcing over East Asia using WRF-Chem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Siyu; Zhao, Chun; Qian, Yun

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate the seasonal and annual variations of mineral dust over East Asia during 2007-2011, with a focus on the dust mass balance and radiative forcing. A variety of measurements from in-stu and satellite observations have been used to evaluate simulation results. Generally, WRF-Chem reproduces not only the column variability but also the vertical profile and size distribution of mineral dust over and near the dust source regions of East Asia. We investigate the dust lifecycle and the factors that control the seasonal and spatial variations of dust massmore » balance and radiative forcing over the seven sub-regions of East Asia, i.e. source regions, the Tibetan Plateau, Northern China, Southern China, the ocean outflow region, and Korea-Japan regions. Results show that, over the source regions, transport and dry deposition are the two dominant sinks. Transport contributes to ~30% of the dust sink over the source regions. Dust results in a surface cooling of up to -14 and -10 W m-2, atmospheric warming of up to 20 and 15 W m-2, and TOA cooling of -5 and -8 W m-2 over the two major dust source regions of East Asia, respectively. Over the Tibetan Plateau, transport is the dominant source with a peak in summer. Over identified outflow regions, maximum dust mass loading in spring is contributed by the transport. Dry and wet depositions are the comparably dominant sinks, but wet deposition is larger than dry deposition over the Korea-Japan region, particularly in spring (70% versus 30%). The WRF-Chem simulations can generally capture the measured features of dust aerosols and its radaitve properties and dust mass balance over East Asia, which provides confidence for use in further investigation of dust impact on climate over East Asia.« less

Comparison of Surface Mountain Climate With Equivalent Free Air Parameters Extracted From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis: Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.; Hardy, D.; Duane, W.; Losleben, M.

2007-12-01

It is difficult to predict future climate changes in areas of complex relief, since mountains generate their own climates distinct from the free atmosphere. Thus trends in climate at the mountain surface are different from those in the free air. We compare surface climate (temperature and vapour pressure) measured at seven elevations on the south-western slope of Kilimanjaro, the tallest free standing mountain in Africa, with equivalent observations in the free atmosphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for September 2004 to January 2006. Correlations between daily surface and free air temperature anomalies are greatest at low elevations below 2500 metres, meaning that synoptic (inter-diurnal) variability is the major control here. However, temperatures and moisture on the higher slopes above the treeline (3000 m) are decoupled from the free atmosphere, showing intense heating/cooling by day/night and import of moisture from lower elevations during the day. The lower forested slopes thus act as a moisture source, with large vapour pressure excesses reported in comparison with the free atmosphere (>5 hPa) which move upslope during daylight and subside downslope at night. Strong seasonal contrasts are shown in the vigour of the montane thermal circulation, but interactions with free air circulation (as represented by flow indices developed from reanalysis wind components) are complex. Upper air flow strength and direction (at 500 mb) have limited influence on surface heating and upslope moisture advection, which are dominated by the diurnal cycle rather than inter-diurnal synoptic controls. Thus local changes in surface characteristics (e.g. deforestation) could have a direct influence on the mountain climate of Kilimanjaro, making the upper slopes somewhat divorced from larger scale advective changes associated with global warming.

Case study for the assessment of the biogeophysical effects of a potential afforestation in Europe

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change. Results Based on the simulation results, biogeophysical effects of the hypothetic potential afforestation may lead to cooler and moister conditions during summer in most parts of the temperate zone. The largest relative effects of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine, which is 15–20% of the climate change signal for temperature and more than 50% for precipitation. In northern Germany and France, potential afforestation may enhance the effects of emission change, resulting in more severe heavy precipitation events. The probability of dry days and warm temperature extremes would decrease. Conclusions Large contiguous forest blocks can have distinctive biogeophysical effect on the climate on regional and local scale. In certain regions of the temperate zone, climate change signal due to greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by afforestation due to the dominant evaporative cooling effect during summer. Results of this case study with a hypothetical land cover change can contribute to the assessment of the role of forests in adapting to climate change. Thus they can build an important basis of the future forest policy. PMID:23369380

Climate, herbivory, and fire controls on tropical African forest for the last 60ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. M.

2016-12-01

Vegetation history in Africa is generally assumed to be strongly related to climate. However, disturbance by fire, herbivory, and human land use is also important to maintaining vegetation structure and may interact with climate to create tipping points for ecosystems. During the last 60ka, the transition from glacial aridity to increased moisture in much of northern and equatorial Africa led to widespread forest expansion; however, forests in southeastern Africa do not appear to have changed dramatically during arid periods associated with high-latitude cooling, suggesting a more complex biogeographic history. Here we present analyses of fossil pollen, charcoal, and Sporormiella (dung fungus) along with multiproxy climate reconstructions from a 60kyr record from central Lake Tanganyika, southeast Africa, which illustrate the interplay of climate and disturbance regimes in shaping vegetation composition and structure. We observe that forests dominated the region during the last glacial period despite decreased rainfall. At the end of the glacial, forest opening at 17.5 ka followed warming temperatures but preceded wetting, suggesting that water stress and disturbance from fire and herbivory affected initial landscape transformation. Our Sporormiella record indicates that mega-herbivore populations increased in the early Holocene. This higher animal density increased plant species richness and encouraged landscape heterogeneity until the mid-Holocene. At this time, regional drying followed by the onset of the Iron Age in the late Holocene resulted in expansion of thicket, more open woodland, and disturbance taxa that still characterize the landscape today. This work has important implications for the understanding the how climate change will alter the distribution of lowland and highland forests, in particular how disturbance processes influence the rate of vegetation change.

New Help for MS Patients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

The Mark VII MicroClimate Medical Personal Cooling system enables multiple sclerosis' victims, as well as cerebral palsy, spinabifida patients and others to lower their body temperatures. Although this is not a cure, cooling can produce a dramatic improvement in symptoms. The Multiple Sclerosis Association of America has placed cool suits in MS research care centers. This technology originated in the need for cooling systems in spa@esuits. "Cool Suits" are now used by hazardous materials workers, armored vehicle crews, firefighters and crop dusters. A surgical personal cooling system has also been developed for medical personnel working in hot operating room environments.

A note on Bjerkne's hypothesis for North Atlantic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, Kirk; Stouffer, Ron

1991-01-01

On decadal time-scales the historical surface temperature record over land in the Northern Hemisphere is dominated by polar amplified variations. These variations are coherent with SST anomalies concentrated in the Northwest Atlantic, but extending with lesser amplitude into the North Pacific as well. Bierknes suggested that multi-year SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic were due to irregular changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. In support of the Bjerknes hypothesis there is evidence that winter overturning in the Labrador Sea was suppressed for a brief period from 1967-1969 by a cap of relative fresh water at the surface. Cause and effect are unclear, but this event was associated with a marked cooling of the entire Northern Hemisphere. The difference in SST averaged over the Northern Hemisphere oceans and SST averaged over the Southern Hemisphere oceans from the equator to 40°S is coherent with Sahel summer rainfall on decadal time scales. Empirical evidence is supported by numerical experiments with the British Meteorological Office atmospheric climate model which simulate augmented monsoonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa in response to realistic warm SST anomalies in the Northwest Atlantic. A coupled ocean-atmosphere global model exhibits two equilibrium climate states. One has an active thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic and the other does not. The two climate states provide an extreme example which illustrates the type of large scale air sea interaction Bjerknes visualized as a mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on decadal time-scales.

Late Quaternary Climate and Vegetation of the Sudanian Zone of Northeast Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salzmann, Ulrich; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Morczinek, Irena

2002-07-01

The Lake Tilla crater lake in northeastern Nigeria (10°23'N, 12°08'E) provides a ca. 17,000 14C yr multiproxy record of the environmental history of a Sudanian savanna in West Africa. Evaluation of pollen, diatoms, and sedimentary geochemistry from cores suggests that dry climatic conditions prevailed throughout the late Pleistocene. Before the onset of the Holocene, the slow rise in lake levels was interrupted by a distinct dry event between ca. 10,900 and 10,500 14C yr B.P., which may coincide with the Younger Dryas episode. The onset of the Holocene is marked by an abrupt increase in lake levels and a subsequent spread of Guinean and Sudanian tree taxa into the open grass savanna that predominated throughout the Late Pleistocene. The dominance of the mountain olive Olea hochstetteri suggests cool climatic conditions prior to ca. 8600 14C yr B.P. The early to mid-Holocene humid period culminated between ca. 8500 and 7000 14C yr B.P. with the establishment of a dense Guinean savanna during high lake levels. Frequent fires were important in promoting the open character of the vegetation. The palynological and palaeolimnological data demonstrate that the humid period terminated after ca. 7000 14C yr B.P. in a gradual decline of the precipitation/evaporation ratio and was not interrupted by abrupt climatic events. The aridification trend intensified after ca. 3800 14C yr B.P. and continued until the present.

Factors influencing seedling emergence of three global invaders in greenhouses representing major eco-regions of the world.

PubMed

Arfin-Khan, M A S; Vetter, V M S; Reshi, Z A; Dar, P A; Jentsch, A

2018-05-01

Successful germination and seedling emergence in new environments are crucial first steps in the life history of global plant invaders and thus play a key role in processes of range expansion. We examined the germination and seedling emergence success of three global plant invaders - Lupinus polyphyllus, Senecio inaequidens and Verbascum thapsus - in greenhouses and climate chambers under climate regimes corresponding to seven eco-regions. Seed materials were collected from one non-native population for L. polyphyllus and S. inaequidens, and from 12 populations for V. thapsus (six natives and six non-natives). Experimental climates had significant effects on species responses. No species germinated in the dry (humidity ≤ 50%) and cool (≤ 5 °C) experimental climates. But all species germinated and emerged in two moderately cool (12-19 °C) and in three warm (24-27 °C) experimental climates. In general, V. thapsus showed higher fitness than S. inaequidens and L. polyphyllus. The climate of the seed source region influenced responses of native and non-native populations of V. thapsus. Non-native populations of V. thapsus, originating from the warmer seed source, showed higher performance in warm experimental climates and lower performance in moderately cool experimental climates compared to native populations. Responses of V. thapsus populations were also related to precipitation of the seed source region in moderately dry experimental climates. The warm, semi-arid and humid experimental climates are suitable for the crucial first steps of invasion success for L. polyphyllus, S. inaequidens and V. thapsus. The species adaptation to its source region modified the responses of our studied plants under different experimental climates representing major eco-regions of the world. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Commonalities of carbon dioxide exchange in semiarid regions with monsoon and Mediterranean climates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Semiarid ecosystems with monsoon climates receive precipitation during the warm season while Mediterranean systems are characteristically wet in the cool season and dry in the summer. Comparing biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange across these two climate regimes can yield information about the int...

Delay in convection in nocturnal boundary layer due to aerosol-induced cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Dhiraj Kumar; Ponnulakshmi, V. K.; Subramanian, G.; Sreenivas, K. R.

2012-11-01

Heat transfer processes in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) influence the surface energy budget, and play an important role in many micro-meteorological processes including the formation of inversion layers, radiation fog, and in the control of air-quality near the ground. Under calm clear-sky conditions, radiation dominates over other transport processes, and as a result, the air layers just above ground cool the fastest after sunset. This leads to an anomalous post-sunset temperature profile characterized by a minimum a few decimeters above ground (Lifted temperature minimum). We have designed a laboratory experimental setup to simulate LTM, involving an enclosed layer of ambient air, and wherein the boundary condition for radiation is decoupled from those for conduction and convection. The results from experiments involving both ambient and filtered air indicate that the high cooling rates observed are due to the presence of aerosols. Calculated Rayleigh number of LTM-type profiles is of the order 105-107 in the field and of order 103-105 in the laboratory. In the LTM region, there is convective motion when the Rayleigh number is greater than 104 rather than the critical Rayleigh number (Rac = 1709). The diameter of convection rolls is a function of height of minimum of LTM-type profiles. The results obtained should help in the parameterization of transport process in the nocturnal boundary layer, and highlight the need to accounting the effects of aerosols and ground emissivity in climate models.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L.; Stock, James H.

2011-01-01

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects. PMID:21730180

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico - GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Maasch, Kirk A.; Saltzman, Barry

1989-01-01

The NCAR Community Climate Model GCM is presently used to investigate the possible effects on regional and hemispheric climates of reduced SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, in view of delta-O-18 records and terrestrial evidence for at least two major glacial meltwater discharges after the last glacial maximum. Three numerical experiments have been conducted with imposed gulfwide SST coolings of 3, 6, and 12 C; in all cases, significant reductions arise in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, together with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere.

Rapid sea level rise and ice sheet response to 8,200-year climate event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Vogt, P.R.; Willard, D.A.; Thunell, R.; Halka, J.; Berke, M.; Pohlman, J.

2007-01-01

The largest abrupt climatic reversal of the Holocene interglacial, the cooling event 8.6–8.2 thousand years ago (ka), was probably caused by catastrophic release of glacial Lake Agassiz-Ojibway, which slowed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and cooled global climate. Geophysical surveys and sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay reveal the pattern of sea level rise during this event. Sea level rose ∼14 m between 9.5 to 7.5 ka, a pattern consistent with coral records and the ICE-5G glacio-isostatic adjustment model. There were two distinct periods at ∼8.9–8.8 and ∼8.2–7.6 ka when Chesapeake marshes were drown as sea level rose rapidly at least ∼12 mm yr−1. The latter event occurred after the 8.6–8.2 ka cooling event, coincided with extreme warming and vigorous AMOC centered on 7.9 ka, and may have been due to Antarctic Ice Sheet decay.

Terrestrial climate evolution in the Southwest Pacific over the past 30 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prebble, Joseph G.; Reichgelt, Tammo; Mildenhall, Dallas C.; Greenwood, David R.; Raine, J. Ian; Kennedy, Elizabeth M.; Seebeck, Hannu C.

2017-02-01

A reconstruction of terrestrial temperature and precipitation for the New Zealand landmass over the past ∼30 million years is produced using pollen data from >2000 samples lodged in the New Zealand Fossil Record Electronic Database and modern climate data of nearest living relatives. The reconstruction reveals a warming trend through the late Oligocene to early Miocene, peak warmth in the middle Miocene, and stepwise cooling through the late Neogene. Whereas the regional signal in our reconstruction includes a ∼5-10° northward tectonic drift, as well as an increase in high altitude biomes due to late Neogene and Pliocene uplift of the Southern Alps, the pattern mimics inferred changes in global ice extent, which suggests that global drivers played a major role in shaping local vegetation. Importantly, seasonal temperature estimates indicate low seasonality during the middle Miocene, and that subsequent Neogene cooling was largely due to cooler winters. We suggest that this may reflect increased Subantarctic influence on New Zealand vegetation as the climate cooled.

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Sato, Makiko

1992-01-01

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.; Ludwig, Fulco; Vögele, Stefan; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Kabat, Pavel

2012-09-01

In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref. ) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure futureenergy security.

Short-lived high-amplitude cooling on Svalbard during the Dark Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, Willem; D`Andrea, William; Bakke, Jostein; Balascio, Nicholas; Werner, Johannes; Hoek, Wim

2016-04-01

As the paradigm of a stable Holocene climate has shifted, an increasing number of high-resolution proxy timeseries reveal dynamic conditions, characterized by high-amplitude climate shifts. Some of these events occurred during historical times and allow us to study the interaction between environmental and cultural change, providing valuable lessons for the near future. These include the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP) between 300 and 800 AD, a period marked by political upheaval and climate instability that remains poorly investigated. Here, we present two temperature reconstructions from the High Arctic Svalbard Archipelago. To this end, we applied the established alkenone-based UK37 paleothermometer on sediments from two lakes on western Spitsbergen, Lake Hajeren and Lake Hakluyt. The Arctic is presently warming twice as fast as the global average and proxy data as well as model simulations suggest that this amplified response is characteristic for regional climate. The Arctic therefore provides a uniquely sensitive environment to study relatively modest climate shifts, like the DACP, that may not be adequately captured at lower-latitude sites. Owing to undisturbed sediments, a high sampling resolution and robust chronological control, the presented reconstructions resolve the attendant sub-centennial-scale climate shifts. Our findings suggest that the DACP marks a cold spell within the cool Neoglacial period, which started some 4 ka BP on Svalbard. Close investigation reveals a distinct temperature minimum around 500 AD that is reproduced in another alkenone-based temperature reconstruction from a nearby lake. At ± 1.75 °C, cooling underlines the sensitivity of Arctic climate as well as the magnitude of the DACP.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

2013-12-03

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

A Comparison of Climate Feedback Strength between CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimori, M.; Yokohata, T.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2008-12-01

Studies of past climate potentially provide a constraint on the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, but previous studies warn against a simple scaling to the future. The climate sensitivity is determined by various feedback processes and they may vary with climate states and forcings. In this study, we investigate similarities and differences of feedbacks for a CO2 doubling, a last glacial maximum (LGM), and LGM greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing experiments, using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. After computing the radiative forcing, the individual feedback strengths: water vapor, lapse rate, albedo, and cloud feedbacks, are evaluated explicitly. For this particular model, the difference in the climate sensitivity among experiments is attributed to the shortwave cloud feedback in which there is a tendency that it becomes weaker or even negative in the cooling experiments. No significant difference is found in the water vapor feedback between warming and cooling experiments by GHGs despite the nonlinear dependence of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on temperature. The weaker water vapor feedback in the LGM experiment due to a relatively weaker tropical forcing is compensated by the stronger lapse rate feedback due to a relatively stronger extratropical forcing. A hypothesis is proposed which explains the asymmetric cloud response between warming and cooling experiments associated with a displacement of the region of mixed- phase clouds. The difference in the total feedback strength between experiments is, however, relatively small compared to the current intermodel spread, and does not necessarily preclude the use of LGM climate as a future constraint.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

2013-01-01

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

Radiative Cooling of Warm Molecular Gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neufeld, David A.; Kaufman, Michael J.

1993-01-01

We consider the radiative cooling of warm (T >= 100 K), fully molecular astrophysical gas by rotational and vibrational transitions of the molecules H2O, CO, and H2. Using an escape probability method to solve for the molecular level populations, we have obtained the cooling rate for each molecule as a function of temperature, density, and an optical depth parameter. A four-parameter expression proves useful in fitting the run of cooling rate with density for any fixed values of the temperature and optical depth parameter. We identify the various cooling mechanisms which are dominant in different regions of the astrophysically relevant parameter space. Given the assumption that water is very abundant in warm regions of the interstellar medium, H2O rotational transitions are found to dominate the cooling of warm interstellar gas over a wide portion of the parameter space considered. While chemical models for the interstellar medium make the strong prediction that water will be produced copiously at temperatures above a few hundred degrees, our assumption of a high water abundance has yet to be tested observationally. The Infrared Space Observatory and the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite will prove ideal instruments for testing whether water is indeed an important coolant of interstellar and circumstellar gas.

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

USGS Publications Warehouse

,; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

2015-01-01

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Design and Implementation of a Thermal Load Reduction System for a Hyundai Sonata PHEV for Improved Range

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rugh, John P; Kreutzer, Cory J; Scott, Matthew

Increased adoption of electric-drive vehicles requires overcoming hurdles including limited vehicle range. Vehicle cabin heating and cooling demand for occupant climate control requires energy from the main battery and has been shown to significantly degrade vehicle range. During peak cooling and heating conditions, climate control can require as much as or more energy than propulsion. As part of an ongoing project, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and project partners Hyundai America Technical Center, Inc., Gentherm, Pittsburgh Glass Works, PPG Industries, Sekisui, 3 M, and Hanon Systems developed a thermal load reduction system to reduce the range penalty associated with electricmore » vehicle climate control. Solar reflective paint, solar control glass, heated and cooled/ventilated seats, heated surfaces, and a heated windshield with door demisters were integrated into a Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Cold weather field-testing was conducted in Fairbanks, Alaska, and warm weather testing was conducted in Death Valley, California, to assess the system performance in comparison to the baseline production vehicle. In addition, environmental chamber testing at peak heating and cooling conditions was performed to assess the performance of the system in standardized conditions compared to the baseline. Experimental results are presented in this paper, providing quantitative data to automobile manufacturers on the impact of climate control thermal load reduction technologies to increase the advanced thermal technology adoption and market penetration of electric drive vehicles.« less

Performance Evaluation of a Thermal Load Reduction System in a Hyundai Sonata PHEV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J; Rugh, John P; Titov, Eugene V

Increased adoption of electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming hurdles including limited vehicle range. Vehicle cabin heating and cooling demand for occupant climate control requires energy from the main battery and has been shown to significantly degrade vehicle range. During peak cooling and heating conditions, climate control can require as much or more energy as propulsion. As part of an ongoing project, NREL and project partners Hyundai America Technical Center, Inc. (HATCI), Gentherm , Pittsburgh Glass Works (PGW), PPG Industries, Sekisui, 3M, and Hanon Systems developed a thermal load reduction system in order to reduce the range penalty associated with electricmore » vehicle climate control. Solar reflective paint, solar control glass, heated and cooled/ventilated seats, heated surfaces, and heated windshield with door demisters were integrated into a Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). Cold weather field-testing was conducted in Fairbanks, Alaska while warm weather testing was conducted in Death Valley, California to assess the system performance in comparison to the baseline production vehicle. In addition, environmental chamber testing at peak heating and cooling conditions was performed to assess the performance of the system in standardized conditions compared to the baseline. Experimental results are presented in this paper providing quantitative data to automobile manufacturers on the impact of climate control thermal load reduction technologies to increase the advanced thermal technology adoption and market penetration of electric drive vehicles.« less

The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

A cooling flow in a high-redshift, X-ray-selected cluster of galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nesci, R.; Perola, G.C.; Gioia, I.M.

The X-ray cluster of galaxies IE 0839.9 + 2938 was serendipitously discovered with the Einstein Observatory. CCD imaging at R and V wavelengths show that the color of the dominant elliptical galaxy of this cluster is significantly bluer than the colors of the next brightest cluster galaxies. Strong emission lines, typical of cD galaxies with cooling flows, are present in the spectrum of the dominant galaxy, from which a redshift of 0.193 is derived. The emitting line region is spatially resolved with an extension of about 13 kpc. All the collected data suggest that this cluster is one of themore » most distant cooling flow clusters known to date. 28 refs.« less

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-10-01

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2 doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2 doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high latitudes warm, while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar midtroposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses. Part 2; Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara E.; Bosilovich, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. In this study, we show that one of several PDV interdecadal regime shifts occurred during the 1990s. This significant change in the Pacific basin is comparable but opposite in phase to the 1976 climate regime shift, which results persisting warming in the central-eastern Pacific, and cooling in the North and South Pacific. The 1990s PDV regime shift is consistent with observed changes in ocean biosphere and ocean circulation. A comprehensive picture of PDV as manifested in the troposphere and at the surface is described. In general, the PDV spatial patterns in different parameter fields share some similarities with the patterns associated with ENSO, but important differences exist. First, the PDV atmospheric circulation pattern is shifted westward by about 20deg and its zonal extent is limited to approx.60deg compared to approx.110deg for ENS0 pattern. The westward shift of the PDV wave train produces a different, more west-east oriented, North American teleconnection pattern. The lack of a strong PDV surface temperature (ST) signal in the western equatorial Pacific and the relatively strong ST signal in the subtropical regions are consistent with an atmospheric overturning circulation response that differs from the one associated with ENSO.

Tree demography suggests multiple directions and drivers for species range shifts in mountains of Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Wason, Jay W; Dovciak, Martin

2017-08-01

Climate change is expected to lead to upslope shifts in tree species distributions, but the evidence is mixed partly due to land-use effects and individualistic species responses to climate. We examined how individual tree species demography varies along elevational climatic gradients across four states in the northeastern United States to determine whether species elevational distributions and their potential upslope (or downslope) shifts were controlled by climate, land-use legacies (past logging), or soils. We characterized tree demography, microclimate, land-use legacies, and soils at 83 sites stratified by elevation (~500 to ~1200 m above sea level) across 12 mountains containing the transition from northern hardwood to spruce-fir forests. We modeled elevational distributions of tree species saplings and adults using logistic regression to test whether sapling distributions suggest ongoing species range expansion upslope (or contraction downslope) relative to adults, and we used linear mixed models to determine the extent to which climate, land use, and soil variables explain these distributions. Tree demography varied with elevation by species, suggesting a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for red spruce (more so in cool regions) and sugar maple, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. While soils had relatively minor effects, climate was the dominant predictor for most species and more so for saplings than adults of red spruce, sugar maple, yellow birch, cordate birch, and striped maple. On the other hand, logging legacies were positively associated with American beech, sugar maple, and yellow birch, and negatively with red spruce and balsam fir - generally more so for adults than saplings. All species exhibited individualistic rather than synchronous demographic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species indicates that land use may mask species range shifts caused by changing climate. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global climate forcing from albedo change caused by large-scale deforestation and reforestation: quantification and attribution of geographic variation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies...

Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Rossow, W. B.

2012-01-01

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The breakdown of CRE by cloud regime are however not entirely similar between the two midlatitude zones. Despite the existence of an additional state in the nort!lern midlatitudes, only four weather states have net daytime CREs with absolute values above 100 Watts per square meter compared to six in the south. This reminds us that the environment where clouds occur also has a crucial role in determining their radiative effects. All the above make evident that reproducing grand averages of current CRE by climate models in only part of the challenge. If existing cloud regimes and shifts in their distributions and frequency of occurrence in a changed climate are not properly simulated, the radiative role of clouds will not be adequately predicted.

Multi-Objectives Optimization of Ventilation Controllers for Passive Cooling in Residential Buildings

PubMed Central

Grygierek, Krzysztof; Ferdyn-Grygierek, Joanna

2018-01-01

An inappropriate indoor climate, mostly indoor temperature, may cause occupants’ discomfort. There are a great number of air conditioning systems that make it possible to maintain the required thermal comfort. Their installation, however, involves high investment costs and high energy demand. The study analyses the possibilities of limiting too high a temperature in residential buildings using passive cooling by means of ventilation with ambient cool air. A fuzzy logic controller whose aim is to control mechanical ventilation has been proposed and optimized. In order to optimize the controller, the modified Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm, based on the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm, has been adopted. The optimization algorithm has been implemented in MATLAB®, which is coupled by MLE+ with EnergyPlus for performing dynamic co-simulation between the programs. The example of a single detached building shows that the occupants’ thermal comfort in a transitional climate may improve significantly owing to mechanical ventilation controlled by the suggested fuzzy logic controller. When the system is connected to the traditional cooling system, it may further bring about a decrease in cooling demand. PMID:29642525

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE PAGES

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; ...

2017-10-30

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Revisiting the Cooling Flow Problem in Galaxies, Groups, and Clusters of Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, M.; Gaspari, M.; McNamara, B. R.; Tremblay, G. R.

2018-05-01

We present a study of 107 galaxies, groups, and clusters spanning ∼3 orders of magnitude in mass, ∼5 orders of magnitude in central galaxy star formation rate (SFR), ∼4 orders of magnitude in the classical cooling rate ({\\dot{M}}cool}\\equiv {M}gas}(r< {r}cool})/{t}cool}) of the intracluster medium (ICM), and ∼5 orders of magnitude in the central black hole accretion rate. For each system in this sample, we measure the ICM cooling rate, {\\dot{M}}cool}, using archival Chandra X-ray data and acquire the SFR and systematic uncertainty in the SFR by combining over 330 estimates from dozens of literature sources. With these data, we estimate the efficiency with which the ICM cools and forms stars, finding {ε }cool}\\equiv {SFR}/{\\dot{M}}cool}=1.4 % +/- 0.4% for systems with {\\dot{M}}cool}> 30 M ⊙ yr‑1. For these systems, we measure a slope in the SFR–{\\dot{M}}cool} relation greater than unity, suggesting that the systems with the strongest cool cores are also cooling more efficiently. We propose that this may be related to, on average, higher black hole accretion rates in the strongest cool cores, which could influence the total amount (saturating near the Eddington rate) and dominant mode (mechanical versus radiative) of feedback. For systems with {\\dot{M}}cool}< 30 M ⊙ yr‑1, we find that the SFR and {\\dot{M}}cool} are uncorrelated and show that this is consistent with star formation being fueled at a low (but dominant) level by recycled ISM gas in these systems. We find an intrinsic log-normal scatter in SFR at a fixed {\\dot{M}}cool} of 0.52 ± 0.06 dex (1σ rms), suggesting that cooling is tightly self-regulated over very long timescales but can vary dramatically on short timescales. There is weak evidence that this scatter may be related to the feedback mechanism, with the scatter being minimized (∼0.4 dex) for systems for which the mechanical feedback power is within a factor of two of the cooling luminosity.

Aquatic ecosystem responses to Holocene climate change and biome development in boreal, central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, Anson W.; Bezrukova, Elena V.; Leng, Melanie J.; Meaney, Miriam; Nunes, Ana; Piotrowska, Natalia; Self, Angela; Shchetnikov, Alexander; Shilland, Ewan; Tarasov, Pavel; Wang, Luo; White, Dustin

2012-05-01

Boreal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, and severe ecological impacts in the near future are virtually certain to occur. We undertook a multiproxy study on an alpine lake (ESM-1) at the modern tree-line in boreal, southern Siberia. Steppe and tundra biomes were extensive in eastern Sayan landscapes during the early Holocene. Boreal forest quickly expanded by 9.1 ka BP, and dominated the landscape until c 0.7 ka BP, when the greatest period of compositional turnover occurred. At this time, alpine meadow landscape expanded and Picea obovata colonised new habitats along river valleys and lake shorelines, because of prevailing cool, moist conditions. During the early Holocene, chironomid assemblages were dominated by cold stenotherms. Diatoms for much of the Holocene were dominated by alkaliphilous, fragilarioid taxa, up until 0.2 ka BP, when epiphytic species expanded, indicative of increased habitat availability. C/N mass ratios ranged between 9.5 and 13.5 (11.1-15.8 C/N atomic ratios), indicative of algal communities dominating organic matter contributions to bottom sediments with small, persistent contributions from vascular plants. However, δ13C values increased steadily from -34.9‰ during the early Holocene (9.3 ka BP) to -24.8‰ by 0.6 ka BP. This large shift in magnitude may be due to a number of factors, including increasing within-lake productivity, increasing disequilibrium between the isotopic balance of the lake with the atmosphere as the lake became isotopically ‘mature’, and declining soil respiration linked to small, but distinct retreat in forest biomes. The influence of climatic variables on landscape vegetation was assessed using redundancy analysis (RDA), a linear, direct ordination technique. Changes in July insolation at 60 °N significantly explained over one-fifth of the variation in species composition, while changes in estimates of northern hemisphere temperature and ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic were also significant, but considerably less important. The potential importance of climate and biome development (tundra, steppe, cold deciduous forest and taiga) on different trophic levels (i.e. chironomid and diatom communities) in lake ESM-1 was also assessed using RDA. Climate predictors had a more significant influence on Holocene chironomid assemblages, especially July insolation at 60 °N, estimates of regional precipitation and estimates of northern hemisphere temperature, while only the development of the taiga biome had a significant impact on these primary consumers. Diatom communities also had a small, but significant influence on Holocene chironomid populations, perhaps linked to variation in faunal feeding strategies. In contrast, climatic and biome predictors explained similar amounts of variation in the Holocene diatom assemblage (approximately 20% each), while chironomids themselves as predictors explained just under 7% of diatom variation. Lake acidity was inferred using a diatom inference model. Results suggest that after deglaciation, the lake did not undergo a process of gradual acidification, most likely due to the presence of continuous permafrost and low levels of precipitation, preventing base cations and dissolved organic carbon entering the lake (except for the period between 1.7 and 0.7 ka BP). We conclude that lakes in continental, boreal regions undergo different models of lake ontogeny than oceanic boreal regions. Unlike other regions discussed, climate is a more important driver of ecosystem change than catchment changes. We also demonstrate that the start of the period coincident with the onset of the Little Ice Age resulted in important thresholds crossed in catchment vegetation and aquatic communities.

Standard for Ground Vehicle Mobility

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-01

Zone Dry climates (2), humid mesothermal (3), See Appendix A humid microthermal (4), undifferentiated highland (6) Condition Dry, wet, snow See...represent the Dry, the Humid Mesothermal, and the Humid Microthermal climate zones, respectively. Scenarios ERDC-GSL was sponsored by WARSIM to...Coast D. Humid Microthermal Climates Humid Continental, Warm Summer, Humid Continental, Cool Summer, Sub-Arctic E. Polar Climates Tundra, Ice Caps F

Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century.

PubMed

Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Maxwell, Charles; Lucash, Melissa S; Scheller, Robert M; Laflower, Danelle M; Miller, Adam D; Tepley, Alan J; Epstein, Howard E; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Thompson, Jonathan R

2018-04-30

The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949-2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.

Self-regulated cooling flows in elliptical galaxies and in cluster cores - Is exclusively low mass star formation really necessary?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silk, J.; Djorgovski, S.; Wyse, R. F. G.; Bruzual A., G.

1986-01-01

A self-consistent treatment of the heating by supernovae associated with star formation in a spherically symmetric cooling flow in a cluster core or elliptical galaxy is presented. An initial stellar mass function similar to that in the solar neighborhood is adopted. Inferred star-formation rates, within the cooling region - typically the inner 100 kpc around dominant galaxies at the centers of cooling flows in XD clusters - are reduced by about a factor of 2, relative to rates inferred when the heat input from star formation is ignored. Truncated initial mass functions (IMFs) are also considered, in which massive star formation is suppressed in accordance with previous treatments, and colors are predicted for star formation in cooling flows associated with central dominant elliptical galaxies and with isolated elliptical galaxies surrounded by gaseous coronae. The low inferred cooling-flow rates around isolated elliptical galaxies are found to be insensitive to the upper mass cutoff in the IMF, provided that the upper mass cutoff exceeds 2 M solar mass. Comparison with observed colors favors a cutoff in the IMF above 1 M solar mass in at least two well-studied cluster cooling flows, but a normal IMF cannot be excluded definitively. Models for NGC 1275 support a young (less than about 3 Gyr) cooling flow. As for the isolated elliptical galaxies, the spread in colors is consistent with a normal IMF. A definitive test of the IMF arising via star formation in cooling flows requires either UV spectral data or supernova searches in the cooling-flow-centered galaxies.

Continuous cooling transformation behavior and impact toughness in heat-affected zone of Nb-containing fire-resistant steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hong Hong; Qin, Zhan Peng; Wan, Xiang Liang; Wei, Ran; Wu, Kai Ming; Misra, Devesh

2017-09-01

Simulated heat-affected zone continuous cooling transformation diagram was developed for advanced fireresistant steel. Over a wide range of cooling rates, corresponding to t8/5 from 6 s to 150 s, granular bainite was the dominant transformation constituent, while the morphology of less dominant martensite-austenite (M-A) constituent changed from film-like to block-type constituent; but the hardness remained similar to the average value of 190-205 HV (0.2). The start and finish transformation temperature was high at 700 °C and 500 °C, and is different from the conventional high strength low alloy steels. It is believed that the high-content (0.09 wt%) of Nb may promote bainite transformation at relatively high temperatures. Martenistic matrix was not observed at high cooling rate and the film-like M-A constituent and blocky M-A constituent with thin film of retained austenite and lath martensite were observed on slow cooling. Excellent impact toughness was obtained in the heat-affected zone with 15-75 kJ/cm welding heat input.

DESPOTIC - a new software library to Derive the Energetics and SPectra of Optically Thick Interstellar Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumholz, Mark R.

2014-01-01

I describe DESPOTIC, a code to Derive the Energetics and SPectra of Optically Thick Interstellar Clouds. DESPOTIC represents such clouds using a one-zone model, and can calculate line luminosities, line cooling rates, and in restricted cases line profiles using an escape probability formalism. It also includes approximate treatments of the dominant heating, cooling and chemical processes for the cold interstellar medium, including cosmic ray and X-ray heating, grain photoelectric heating, heating of the dust by infrared and ultraviolet radiation, thermal cooling of the dust, collisional energy exchange between dust and gas, and a simple network for carbon chemistry. Based on these heating, cooling and chemical rates, DESPOTIC can calculate clouds' equilibrium gas and dust temperatures, equilibrium carbon chemical state and time-dependent thermal and chemical evolution. The software is intended to allow rapid and interactive calculation of clouds' characteristic temperatures, identification of their dominant heating and cooling mechanisms and prediction of their observable spectra across a wide range of interstellar environments. DESPOTIC is implemented as a PYTHON package, and is released under the GNU General Public License.

Global warming and ocean stratification: A potential result of large extraterrestrial impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Manoj; von Glasow, Roland; Smith, Robin S.; Paxton, Charles G. M.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Loptson, Claire; Markwick, Paul

2017-04-01

The prevailing paradigm for the climatic effects of large asteroid or comet impacts is a reduction in sunlight and significant short-term cooling caused by atmospheric aerosol loading. Here we show, using global climate model experiments, that the large increases in stratospheric water vapor that can occur upon impact with the ocean cause radiative forcings of over +20 W m-2 in the case of 10 km sized bolides. The result of such a positive forcing is rapid climatic warming, increased upper ocean stratification, and potentially disruption of upper ocean ecosystems. Since two thirds of the world's surface is ocean, we suggest that some bolide impacts may actually warm climate overall. For impacts producing both stratospheric water vapor and aerosol loading, radiative forcing by water vapor can reduce or even cancel out aerosol-induced cooling, potentially causing 1-2 decades of increased temperatures in both the upper ocean and on the land surface. Such a response, which depends on the ratio of aerosol to water vapor radiative forcing, is distinct from many previous scenarios for the climatic effects of large bolide impacts, which mostly account for cooling from aerosol loading. Finally, we discuss how water vapor forcing from bolide impacts may have contributed to two well-known phenomena: extinction across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary and the deglaciation of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.

Navy Expeditionary Technology Transition Program (NETTP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-02

water vapor from feed air using a zeolite membrane •Temperature/Humidity levels can be met in warm, humid climates without reheating •Allows higher...UNCLASSIFIED, Distribution Unlimited Modular Thermal Hub •Small, efficient absorption cooling •Energy source: Combustion, low- grade waste heat, solar... thermal energy •Reversible operation enables space cooling and heating, and water heating •Modular cooling and heating unit •Monolithic packaging offers

Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes

Treesearch

Xuhui Lee; Michael L. Goulden; David Y. Hollinger; Alan Barr; T. Andrew Black; Gil Bohrer; Rosvel Bracho; Bert Drake; Allen Goldstein; Lianhong Gu; Gabriel Katul; Thomas Kolb; Beverly E. Law; Hank Margolis; Tilden Meyers; Russell Monson; William Munger; Ram Oren; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Andrew D. Richardson; Hans Peter Schmid; Ralf Staebler; Steven Wofsy; Lei Zhao

2011-01-01

Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo–sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it...

Mechanisms for the cooling of the central eastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard

2017-04-01

The sea surface temperature variation over the Central Eastern Pacific (CEP) controls the global mean surface temperature variation (Kosaka and Xie, 2013). The regional cooling over CEP is directly linked to the surface warming slowdown in last twenty years. It is important to understand the mechanisms of the CEP cooling in the warming climate in order to have a robust prediction of the future climate change. Previous studies showed the CEP cooling is related to the pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades, which is sufficient to account for the cooling of the CEP and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake in the Pacific shallow overturning cells and equatorial upwelling in the CEP (England et al., 2014). By analysing the cloud data, Zhou et al. (2016) showed the increase of the lower cloud cover (LCC) over the CEP area contributed to the cooling, resulting in positive local feedback and negative global feedback. Using the data from observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis and atmospheric climate simulations, our study shows that the increasing Latent Heat (LH) also plays an important role in the CEP cooling (Liu et al., 2015). After the sensitivity test using the bulk formula, it showed that both wind and total column water vapour content contribute to the cooling trends of the SST in CEP. The observed trends of the wind and LH in CEP also confirmed this. England et al. (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222-227, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106. Kosaka, Y., and S. P. Xie (2013), Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling, Nature, 501, 403-407, doi:10.1038/nature12534. Liu et al. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. J. Geophys. Res. , Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD023264. Zhou et al. (2016) Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget, Nature Geoscience 9, 871-874 (2016) doi:10.1038/ngeo2828.

Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falloon, P. D.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R. A.; Jones, C. D.; Booth, B. B. B.; Lambert, F. H.

2012-06-01

The aim of our study was to use the coupled climate-carbon cycle model HadCM3C to quantify climate impact of ecosystem changes over recent decades and under future scenarios, due to changes in both atmospheric CO2 and surface albedo. We use two future scenarios - the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, and a climate stabilisation scenario (2C20), allowing us to assess the impact of climate mitigation on results. We performed a pair of simulations under each scenario - one in which vegetation was fixed at the initial state and one in which vegetation changes dynamically in response to climate change, as determined by the interactive vegetation model within HadCM3C. In our simulations with interactive vegetation, relatively small changes in global vegetation coverage were found, mainly dominated by increases in scrub and needleleaf trees at high latitudes and losses of broadleaf trees and grasses across the Amazon. Globally this led to a loss of terrestrial carbon, mainly from the soil. Global changes in carbon storage were related to the regional losses from the Amazon and gains at high latitude. Regional differences in carbon storage between the two scenarios were largely driven by the balance between warming-enhanced decomposition and altered vegetation growth. Globally, interactive vegetation reduced albedo acting to enhance albedo changes due to climate change. This was mainly related to the darker land surface over high latitudes (due to vegetation expansion, particularly during winter and spring); small increases in albedo occurred over the Amazon. As a result, there was a relatively small impact of vegetation change on most global annual mean climate variables, which was generally greater under A1B than 2C20, with markedly stronger local-to-regional and seasonal impacts. Globally, vegetation change amplified future annual temperature increases by 0.24 and 0.15 K (under A1B and 2C20, respectively) and increased global precipitation, with reductions in precipitation over the Amazon and increases over high latitudes. In general, changes were stronger over land - for example, global temperature changes due to interactive vegetation of 0.43 and 0.28 K under A1B and 2C20, respectively. Regionally, the warming influence of future vegetation change in our simulations was driven by the balance between driving factors. For instance, reduced tree cover over the Amazon reduced evaporation (particularly during summer), outweighing the cooling influence of any small albedo changes. In contrast, at high latitudes the warming impact of reduced albedo (particularly during winter and spring) due to increased vegetation cover appears to have offset any cooling due to small evaporation increases. Climate mitigation generally reduced the impact of vegetation change on future global and regional climate in our simulations. Our study therefore suggests that there is a need to consider both biogeochemical and biophysical effects in climate adaptation and mitigation decision making.

Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falloon, P. D.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R. A.; Jones, C. D.; Booth, B. B. B.; Lambert, F. H.

2012-11-01

The aim of our study was to use the coupled climate-carbon cycle model HadCM3C to quantify climate impact of ecosystem changes over recent decades and under future scenarios, due to changes in both atmospheric CO2 and surface albedo. We use two future scenarios - the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, and a climate stabilisation scenario (2C20), allowing us to assess the impact of climate mitigation on results. We performed a pair of simulations under each scenario - one in which vegetation was fixed at the initial state and one in which vegetation changes dynamically in response to climate change, as determined by the interactive vegetation model within HadCM3C. In our simulations with interactive vegetation, relatively small changes in global vegetation coverage were found, mainly dominated by increases in shrub and needleleaf trees at high latitudes and losses of broadleaf trees and grasses across the Amazon. Globally this led to a loss of terrestrial carbon, mainly from the soil. Global changes in carbon storage were related to the regional losses from the Amazon and gains at high latitude. Regional differences in carbon storage between the two scenarios were largely driven by the balance between warming-enhanced decomposition and altered vegetation growth. Globally, interactive vegetation reduced albedo acting to enhance albedo changes due to climate change. This was mainly related to the darker land surface over high latitudes (due to vegetation expansion, particularly during December-January and March-May); small increases in albedo occurred over the Amazon. As a result, there was a relatively small impact of vegetation change on most global annual mean climate variables, which was generally greater under A1B than 2C20, with markedly stronger local-to-regional and seasonal impacts. Globally, vegetation change amplified future annual temperature increases by 0.24 and 0.15 K (under A1B and 2C20, respectively) and increased global precipitation, with reductions in precipitation over the Amazon and increases over high latitudes. In general, changes were stronger over land - for example, global temperature changes due to interactive vegetation of 0.43 and 0.28 K under A1B and 2C20, respectively. Regionally, the warming influence of future vegetation change in our simulations was driven by the balance between driving factors. For instance, reduced tree cover over the Amazon reduced evaporation (particularly during June-August), outweighing the cooling influence of any small albedo changes. In contrast, at high latitudes the warming impact of reduced albedo (particularly during December-February and March-May) due to increased vegetation cover appears to have offset any cooling due to small evaporation increases. Climate mitigation generally reduced the impact of vegetation change on future global and regional climate in our simulations. Our study therefore suggests that there is a need to consider both biogeochemical and biophysical effects in climate adaptation and mitigation decision making.

Pteropods and climate off the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loeb, Valerie J.; Santora, Jarrod A.

2013-09-01

Shelled (thecosome) and naked (gymnosome) pteropods are regular, at times abundant, members of Southern Ocean zooplankton assemblages. Regionally, shelled species can play a major role in food webs and carbon cycling. Because of their aragonite shells thecosome pteropods may be vulnerable to the impacts of ocean acidification; without shells they cannot survive and their demise would have major implications for food webs and carbon cycling in the Southern Ocean. Additionally, pteropod species in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean inhabit a region of rapid warming and climate change, the impacts of which are predicted to be observed as poleward distribution shifts. Here we provide baseline information on intraseasonal, interannual and longer scale variability of pteropod populations off the Antarctic Peninsula between 1994 and 2009. Concentrations of the 4 dominant taxa, Limacina helicina antarctica f. antarctica, Clio pyramidata f. sulcata, Spongiobranchaea australis and Clione limacina antarctica, are similar to those monitored during the 1928-1935 Discovery Investigations and reflect generally low values but with episodic interannual abundance peaks that, except for C. pyr. sulcata, are related to basin-scale climate forcing associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate mode. Significant abundance increases of L. helicina and S. australis after 1998 were associated with a climate regime shift that initiated a period dominated by cool La Niña conditions and increased nearshore influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This background information is essential to assess potential future changes in pteropod species distribution and abundance associated with ocean warming and acidification. construct maps of pteropod spatial frequency and mean abundance to assess their oceanographic associations; quantify pteropod abundance anomalies for comparing intraseasonal and interannual variability relative to m-3 environmental variables and climate modes; investigate the presence of long-term trends and/or cycles of peak abundance of the pteropod species in this region as have been described for krill and salps (Loeb et al., 2009, 2010; Loeb and Santora, 2012). We then examine interannual and longer-term variability of pteropod species abundance with respect to possible effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on population size, advection into and retention within the survey area. In doing so we highlight the importance of having sufficient spatial and temporal sampling coverage, as well as appropriate net mesh size, to establish statistically significant abundance changes associated with climate modes and long-term warming.

Inclusion of cool roofs in nonresidential Title 24 prescriptiverequirements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Konopacki, Steve

2003-07-01

Roofs that have high solar reflectance (high ability toreflect sunlight) and high thermal emittance (high ability to radiateheat) tend to stay cool in the sun. The same is true of low-emittanceroofs with exceptionally high solar reflectance. Substituting a cool rooffor a non-cool roof tends to decrease cooling electricity use, coolingpower demand, and cooling-equipment capacity requirements, while slightlyincreasing heating energy consumption. Cool roofs can also lower citywideambient air temperature in summer, slowing ozone formation and increasinghuman comfort.DOE-2.1E building energy simulations indicate that use of acool roofing material on a prototypical California nonresidential (NR)building with a low-sloped roof yields average annual coolingmore » energysavings of approximately 3.2 kW h/m2 (300 kW h/1000 ft2), average annualnatural gas deficits of 5.6 MJ/m2 (4.9 therm/1000 ft2), average annualsource energy savings of 30 MJ/m2 (2.6 MBTU/1000 ft2), and average peakpower demand savings of 2.1 W/m2 (0.19 kW/1000 ft2). The 15-year netpresent value (NPV) of energy savings averages $4.90/m2 ($450/1000 ft2)with time-dependent valuation (TDV), and $4.00/m2 ($370/1000 ft2) withoutTDV. When cost savings from downsizing cooling equipment are included,the average total savings (15-year NPV+equipment savings) rises to$5.90/m2 ($550/1000 ft2) with TDV, and to $5.00/m2 ($470/1000 ft2)without TDV.Total savings range from 1.90 to 8.30 $/m2 (0.18 0.77 $/ft2)with TDV, and from 1.70 to 7.10 $/m2 (0.16 0.66 $/ft2) without TDV,across California's 16 climate zones. The typical cost premium for a coolroof is 0.00 2.20 $/m2 (0.00 0.20 $/ft2). Cool roofs with premiums up to$2.20/m2 ($0.20/ft2) are expected to be cost effective in climate zones 216; those with premiums not exceeding $1.90/m2 ($0.18/ft2) are expectedto be also cost effective in climate zone 1. Hence, this study recommendsthat the year-2005 California building energy efficiency code (Title 24,Part 6 of the California Code of Regulations) for NR buildings withlow-sloped roofs include a cool-roof prescriptive requirement in allCalifornia climate zones. Buildings with roofs that do not meetprescriptive requirements may comply with the code via an"overall-envelope" approach (non-metal roofs only), or via a performanceapproach (all roof types).« less

A technique to detect microclimatic inhomogeneities in historical temperature records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runnalls, K. E.; Oke, T. R.

2003-04-01

A technique to identify inhomogeneities in historical temperature records caused by microclimatic changes to the surroundings of a climate station (e.g. minor instrument relocations, vegetation growth/removal, construction of houses, roads, runways) is presented. The technique uses daily maximum and minimum temperatures to estimate the magnitude of nocturnal cooling. The test station is compared to a nearby reference station by constructing time series of monthly "cooling ratios". It is argued that the cooling ratio is a particularly sensitive measure of microclimatic differences between neighbouring climate stations. Firstly, because microclimatic character is best expressed at night in stable conditions. Secondly, because larger-scale climatic influences common to both stations are removed by the use of a ratio and, because the ratio can be shown to be invariant in the mean with weather variables such as wind and cloud. Inflections (change points) in time series of cooling ratios therefore signal microclimatic change in one of the station records. Hurst rescaling is applied to the time series to aid in the identification of change points, which can then be compared to documented station history events, if sufficient metatdata is available. Results for a variety of air temperature records, ranging from rural to urban stations, are presented to illustrate the applicability of the technique.

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

US Power Production at Risk from Water Stress in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Ganguli, Poulomi; Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R

2017-09-20

Thermoelectric power production in the United States primarily relies on wet-cooled plants, which in turn require water below prescribed design temperatures, both for cooling and operational efficiency. Thus, power production in US remains particularly vulnerable to water scarcity and rising stream temperatures under climate change and variability. Previous studies on the climate-water-energy nexus have primarily focused on mid- to end-century horizons and have not considered the full range of uncertainty in climate projections. Technology managers and energy policy makers are increasingly interested in the decadal time scales to understand adaptation challenges and investment strategies. Here we develop a new approach that relies on a novel multivariate water stress index, which considers the joint probability of warmer and scarcer water, and computes uncertainties arising from climate model imperfections and intrinsic variability. Our assessments over contiguous US suggest consistent increase in water stress for power production with about 27% of the production severely impacted by 2030s.

High-resolution conodont oxygen isotope record of Ordovician climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Algeo, T. J.

2013-12-01

The Ordovician Period was characterized by several major events, including a prolonged 'super greenhouse' during the Early Ordovician, the 'Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE)' of the Middle and early Late Ordovician, and the Hirnantian ice age and mass extinction of the latest Ordovician (Webby et al., 2004, The Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event, Columbia University Press). The cause of the rapid diversification of marine invertebrates during the GOBE is not clear, however, and several scenarios have been proposed including widespread development of shallow cratonic seas, strong magmatic and tectonic activity, and climate moderation. In order to investigate relationships between climate change and marine ecosystem evolution during the Ordovician, we measured the oxygen isotopic composition of single coniform conodonts using a Cameca secondary ion mass spectrometer. Our δ18O profile shows a shift at the Early/Middle Ordovician transition that is indicative of a rapid 6 to 8 °C cooling. This cooling event marks the termination of the Early Ordovician 'super greenhouse' and may have established cooler tropical seawater temperatures that were more favorable for invertebrate animals, setting the stage for the GOBE. Additional cooling episodes occurred during the early Sandbian, early Katian, and Hirnantian, the last culminating in a short-lived (<1-Myr) end-Ordovician ice age. The much cooler conditions that prevailed at that time may have been an important factor in the end-Ordovician mass extinction. Our results differ from those of Trotter et al. (2008, 'Did cooling oceans trigger Ordovician biodiversification? Evidence from conodont thermometry,' Science 321:550-554). Instead of a slow, protracted cooling through the Early and Middle Ordovician, our high-resolution record shows that cooling occurred in several discrete steps, with the largest step being at the Early/Middle Ordovician transition.

Global Warming and Geographically Scalar Climatic Objects Exist: An Ontologically Realist and Object-Oriented Analysis of the Daymet TMAX Climate Summaries for North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, C. P.

2017-12-01

The scientific materialist worldview, what Peter Unger refers to as the Scientiphical worldview, or Scientiphicalism, has been utterly catastrophic for mesoscale objects in general, but, with its closely associated twentieth-century formal logic, this has been especially true for notoriously vague things like climate change, coastlines, mountains and dust storms. That is, any so-called representations or references ultimately suffer the same ontological demise as their referents, no matter how well-defined their boundaries may in fact be. Against this reductionist metaphysics, climatic objects are discretized within three separate ontologically realist systems, Graham Harman's object-oriented philosophy, or ontology (OOO), Markus Gabriel's ontology of fields of sense (OFS) and Tristan Garcia's two systems and new order of time, so as to make an ontological case for any geographically scalar object, beginning with pixels, as well as any notoriously vague thing they are said to represent. Four-month overlapping TMAX seasonals were first developed from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Daymet climate temperature maximum (TMAX) monthly summaries (1980-2016) for North America and segmented within Trimble's eCognition Developer using the simple and widely familiar quadtree algorithm with a scale parameter of four, in this example. The regression coefficient was then calculated for the resulting 37-year climatic objects and an equally simple classification was applied. The same segmentation and classification was applied to the Daymet annual summaries, as well, for comparison. As was expected, the mean warming and cooling trends are lowest for the annual summary TMAX climatic objects. However, the Fall (SOND) season has the largest and smallest areas of warming and cooling, respectively, and the highest mean trend for warming objects. Conversely, Spring (MAMJ) has the largest and smallest areas undergoing cooling and warming, respectively. Finally, Summer (JJAS) has the highest mean trend for cooling objects. Not only do these highly heterogeneous and variable patterns become readily apparent with each set of objects, but so do any possible anomalies that might warrant further investigation.

Advanced Thermo-Adsorptive Battery: Advanced Thermo-Adsorptive Battery Climate Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

HEATS Project: MIT is developing a low-cost, compact, high-capacity, advanced thermoadsorptive battery (ATB) for effective climate control of EVs. The ATB provides both heating and cooling by taking advantage of the materials’ ability to adsorb a significant amount of water. This efficient battery system design could offer up as much as a 30% increase in driving range compared to current EV climate control technology. The ATB provides high-capacity thermal storage with little-to-no electrical power consumption. The ATB is also looking to explore the possibility of shifting peak electricity loads for cooling and heating in a variety of other applications, includingmore » commercial and residential buildings, data centers, and telecom facilities.« less

Geologic Drivers of Late Ordovician Faunal Change in Laurentia: Investigating Links between Tectonics, Speciation, and Biotic Invasions

PubMed Central

Wright, David F.; Stigall, Alycia L.

2013-01-01

Geologic process, including tectonics and global climate change, profoundly impact the evolution of life because they have the propensity to facilitate episodes of biogeographic differentiation and influence patterns of speciation. We investigate causal links between a dramatic faunal turnover and two dominant geologic processes operating within Laurentia during the Late Ordovician: the Taconian Orogeny and GICE related global cooling. We utilize a novel approach for elucidating the relationship between biotic and geologic changes using a time-stratigraphic, species-level evolutionary framework for articulated brachiopods from North America. Phylogenetic biogeographic analyses indicate a fundamental shift in speciation mode—from a vicariance to dispersal dominated macroevolutionary regime—across the boundary between the Sandbian to Katian Stages. This boundary also corresponds to the onset of renewed intensification of tectonic activity and mountain building, the development of an upwelling zone that introduced cool, nutrient-rich waters into the epieric seas of eastern Laurentia, and the GICE isotopic excursion. The synchronicity of these dramatic geologic, oceanographic, and macroevolutionary changes supports the influence of geologic events on biological evolution. Together, the renewed tectonic activity and oceanographic changes facilitated fundamental changes in habitat structure in eastern North America that reduced opportunities for isolation and vicariance. They also facilitated regional biotic dispersal of taxa that led to the subsequent establishment of extrabasinal (=invasive) species and may have led to a suppression of speciation within Laurentian faunas. Phylogenetic biogeographic analysis further indicates that the Richmondian Invasion was a multidirectional regional invasion event that involved taxa immigrating into the Cincinnati region from basins located near the continental margins and within the continental interior. PMID:23869215

Geologic drivers of late ordovician faunal change in laurentia: investigating links between tectonics, speciation, and biotic invasions.

PubMed

Wright, David F; Stigall, Alycia L

2013-01-01

Geologic process, including tectonics and global climate change, profoundly impact the evolution of life because they have the propensity to facilitate episodes of biogeographic differentiation and influence patterns of speciation. We investigate causal links between a dramatic faunal turnover and two dominant geologic processes operating within Laurentia during the Late Ordovician: the Taconian Orogeny and GICE related global cooling. We utilize a novel approach for elucidating the relationship between biotic and geologic changes using a time-stratigraphic, species-level evolutionary framework for articulated brachiopods from North America. Phylogenetic biogeographic analyses indicate a fundamental shift in speciation mode-from a vicariance to dispersal dominated macroevolutionary regime-across the boundary between the Sandbian to Katian Stages. This boundary also corresponds to the onset of renewed intensification of tectonic activity and mountain building, the development of an upwelling zone that introduced cool, nutrient-rich waters into the epieric seas of eastern Laurentia, and the GICE isotopic excursion. The synchronicity of these dramatic geologic, oceanographic, and macroevolutionary changes supports the influence of geologic events on biological evolution. Together, the renewed tectonic activity and oceanographic changes facilitated fundamental changes in habitat structure in eastern North America that reduced opportunities for isolation and vicariance. They also facilitated regional biotic dispersal of taxa that led to the subsequent establishment of extrabasinal (=invasive) species and may have led to a suppression of speciation within Laurentian faunas. Phylogenetic biogeographic analysis further indicates that the Richmondian Invasion was a multidirectional regional invasion event that involved taxa immigrating into the Cincinnati region from basins located near the continental margins and within the continental interior.

Numerical models of jet disruption in cluster cooling flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loken, Chris; Burns, Jack O.; Roettiger, Kurt; Norman, Mike

1993-01-01

We present a coherent picture for the formation of the observed diverse radio morphological structures in dominant cluster galaxies based on the jet Mach number. Realistic, supersonic, steady-state cooling flow atmospheres are evolved numerically and then used as the ambient medium through which jets of various properties are propagated. Low Mach number jets effectively stagnate due to the ram pressure of the cooling flow atmosphere while medium Mach number jets become unstable and disrupt in the cooling flow to form amorphous structures. High Mach number jets manage to avoid disruption and are able to propagate through the cooling flow.

Pleistocene climate change inferred from multi-proxy analyses of a loess-paleosol sequence in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yi; Qiu, Shifan; Fu, Shuqing; Rao, Zhiguo; Zhu, Zhaoyu

2018-04-01

The aeolian loess blanketing the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is sensitive to climate change in monsoonal East Asia. Here, we present a multi-proxy climatic record from a Pleistocene loess-paleosol sequence from the Lantian Basin on the southern margin of the CLP. The measurements include magnetic susceptibility and related magnetic properties, bulk median grain-size, color reflectance, and the color-inferred hematite versus goethite ratio (Hm/Gt). A long-term aridification and cooling trend during the interval from ca 2.22-0.43 Ma is indicated by two magnetic grain-size proxies, corresponding to the global climatic cooling of the late Cenozoic. In addition, at least four intervals of climatic extremes are evident in the record of Hm/Gt ratio: at 1.71-1.65 Ma, 1.26-1.24 Ma, 0.94-0.86 Ma, and 0.62-0.48 Ma. These intervals are characterized by distinct regional climates, which contrast with the global climatic conditions represented in marine sediments. For example, a relatively arid climate is documented from 1.71 to 1.65 Ma, which was rapidly succeeded by a relatively humid climate which is associated with the earliest hominin (with an age of ca 1.63 Ma) in the Lantian Basin.

Teaching about Climate Change: Cool Schools Tackle Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, Tim, Ed.; Littlejohn, Gail, Ed.

Within the last couple of decades, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased significantly due to human activities. Today climate change is an important issue for humankind. This book provides a starting point for educators to teach about climate change, although there are obstacles caused by the industrialized…

78 FR 40644 - Proposed Establishment of the Malibu Coast Viticultural Area

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-08

... along the Pacific Ocean and the influence the ocean has on the climate. The petition included several..., which limits the extent of the cooling marine influence and marine fog. As a result, the climate is warm... climate, geology, soils, physical features, and elevation, and that make the proposed viticultural area...

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, David L.; Finnegan, William

2009-10-01

Greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds regulate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). A potential delivery mechanism for the seeding material is already in place: the airline industry. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are relatively short, the climate might return to its normal state within months after stopping the geoengineering experiment. The main known drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It does not have many of the drawbacks that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has.

Dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff changes at the catchment scale across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhongwei; Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen

2016-07-01

With global climate changes intensifying, the hydrological response to climate changes has attracted more attention. It is beneficial not only for hydrology and ecology but also for water resource planning and management to understand the impact of climate change on runoff. In addition, there are large spatial variations in climate type and geographic characteristics across China. To gain a better understanding of the spatial variation of the response of runoff to changes in climatic factors and to detect the dominant climatic factors driving changes in annual runoff, we chose the climate elasticity method proposed by Yang and Yang (2011). It is shown that, in most catchments of China, increasing air temperature and relative humidity have negative impacts on runoff, while declining net radiation and wind speed have positive impacts on runoff, which slow the overall decline in runoff. The dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff are precipitation in most parts of China, net radiation mainly in some catchments of southern China, air temperature and wind speed mainly in some catchments in northern China.

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1994-01-01

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Cirrus Cloud Seeding has Potential to Cool Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storelvmo, T.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Muri, H.; Pfeffer, M.; Barahona, D.; Nenes, A.

2013-01-01

Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere, have a net warming effect on Earth s climate. Consequently, a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thickness would cool the climate. Recent research indicates that by seeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote ice nucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced. We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate model with a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and find that cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times to present day. However, the desired effect is only obtained for seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimal range. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, a seeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higher than optimal concentration results in an over-seeding that could have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetime and contributing to global warming.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming: OCEAN HEAT AND POLAR WARMING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2-doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at highmore » latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.« less

Drivers of Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean surface cooling over the past four decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew

2017-04-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea-ice coverage has increased overall during the past four decades. In contrast, the majority of CMIP5 models simulate a decline. In addition, Southern Ocean surface waters have largely cooled, in stark contrast to almost all historical CMIP5 simulations. Subantarctic Surface Waters have cooled and freshened while waters to the north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current have warmed and increased in salinity. It remains unclear as to what extent the cooling and Antarctic sea-ice expansion is due to natural variability versus anthropogenic forcing; due for example to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is also unclear what the respective role of surface buoyancy fluxes is compared to internal ocean circulation changes, and what the implications are for longer-term climate change in the region. In this presentation we will outline three distinct drivers of recent Southern Ocean surface trends that have each made a significant contribution to regional cooling: (1) wind-driven surface cooling and sea-ice expansion due to shifted westerly winds, (2) teleconnections of decadal variability from the tropical Pacific, and (3) surface cooling and ice expansion due to large-scale Southern Ocean freshening, most likely driven by SAM-related precipitation trends over the open ocean. We will also outline the main reasons why climate models for the most part miss these Southern Ocean cooling trends, despite capturing overall trends in the SAM.

Climatic and Chemical Effects of Punctuated Volcanism on Early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halevy, I.; Head, J. W.

2012-12-01

The geological record of Mars shows a pronounced peak in volcanic activity during the transition between the late Noachian and early Hesperian epochs. This peak appears coeval with profound climatic and chemical changes in the surface environment, including the formation of the majority of known valley networks, open-basin lakes and the deposition of massive sulfate-bearing deposits of aqueous origin. It has been suggested that volcanism maintained a warmer climate and an active hydrological cycle through the radiative effect of volcanically emitted greenhouse gases, such as CO2, H2O and SO2. However, previous model attempts at explaining overland flow with CO2-H2O greenhouse atmospheres required several bars of CO2, even including the warming effect of infrared scattering by CO2 ice clouds. This amount of CO2 is in apparent disagreement with recent estimates of volcanic outgassing on Mars. The net climatic effect of volcanic SO2 emissions into the atmosphere of early Mars has been the topic of recent debate, because it is unclear whether strong greenhouse warming by SO2 or strong cooling by scattering sulfate aerosols should dominate. To address this problem, we considered two previously neglected phenomena: i) the punctuated, rather than continuous, nature of volcanic eruptions, and ii) the role of preexisting dust grains and volcanic ash as condensation nuclei for sulfuric acid. For this purpose we developed a coupled model of volcanic eruption and atmospheric response, including detailed aerosol microphysics. We find that while SO2 concentrations increase rapidly and dramatically with the initiation of a strong volcanic eruption, the dynamics of sulfate aerosol formation in the martian atmosphere results in a delay of aerosol-related cooling by several months to years. Moreover, the existence of dust in the atmosphere prior to the volcanic eruption, as well as the emission and global distribution of fine volcanic ash particles, results in the formation of H2SO4-coated dust grains at the expense of pure sulfate aerosols. As a result, the cooling effect due to formation of sulfate-bearing aerosols is decreased and its onset delayed. We suggest that the episodicity of eruption and the timescale for development of a sulfuric acid coating on dust grains resulted in transient warming and hydrological activity, and in the formation of associated geological and geochemical records. This suggestion is consistent with growing evidence for episodic, rather than sustained, wet conditions on the surface of early Mars and with the ages of the majority of sulfate deposits, which reflect the gradually decreasing potential for warm and wet conditions associated with declining volcanic activity on Mars.

Reinforcing the North Atlantic backbone: revision and extension of the composite splice at ODP Site 982

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drury, Anna Joy; Westerhold, Thomas; Hodell, David; Röhl, Ursula

2018-03-01

Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 982 represents a key location for understanding the evolution of climate in the North Atlantic over the past 12 Ma. However, concerns exist about the validity and robustness of the underlying stratigraphy and astrochronology, which currently limits the adequacy of this site for high-resolution climate studies. To resolve this uncertainty, we verify and extend the early Pliocene to late Miocene shipboard composite splice at Site 982 using high-resolution XRF core scanning data and establish a robust high-resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotope stratigraphy and astrochronology between 8.0 and 4.5 Ma. Splice revisions and verifications resulted in ˜ 11 m of gaps in the original Site 982 isotope stratigraphy, which were filled with 263 new isotope analyses. This new stratigraphy reveals previously unseen benthic δ18O excursions, particularly prior to 6.65 Ma. The benthic δ18O record displays distinct, asymmetric cycles between 7.7 and 6.65 Ma, confirming that high-latitude climate is a prevalent forcing during this interval. An intensification of the 41 kyr beat in both the benthic δ13C and δ18O is also observed ˜ 6.4 Ma, marking a strengthening in the cryosphere-carbon cycle coupling. A large ˜ 0.7 ‰ double excursion is revealed ˜ 6.4-6.3 Ma, which also marks the onset of an interval of average higher δ18O and large precession and obliquity-dominated δ18O excursions between 6.4 and 5.4 Ma, coincident with the culmination of the late Miocene cooling. The two largest benthic δ18O excursions ˜ 6.4-6.3 Ma and TG20/22 coincide with the coolest alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from Site 982, suggesting a strong connection between the late Miocene global cooling, and deep-sea cooling and dynamic ice sheet expansion. The splice revisions and revised astrochronology resolve key stratigraphic issues that have hampered correlation between Site 982, the equatorial Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Comparisons of the revised Site 982 stratigraphy to high-resolution astronomically tuned benthic δ18O stratigraphies from ODP Site 926 (equatorial Atlantic) and Ain el Beida (north-western Morocco) show that prior inconsistencies in short-term excursions are now resolved. The identification of key new cycles at Site 982 further highlights the requirement for the current scheme for late Miocene marine isotope stages to be redefined. Our new integrated deep-sea benthic stable isotope stratigraphy and astrochronology from Site 982 will facilitate future high-resolution late Miocene to early Pliocene climate research.

Late Cenozoic lacustrine and climatic environments at Tule Lake, northern Great Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Platt, Bradbury J.

1992-01-01

Cores of lake sediment to a depth of 334 m in the town of Tulelake, Siskiyou County, northern California, document the late Cenozoic paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic history of the northwestern edge of the Great Basin. The cores have been dated by radiometric, tephrochronologic and paleomagnetic analyses. Lacustrine diatoms are abundant throughout the record and document a nearly continuous paleolimnologic history of the Tule Lake basin for the last 3 Myr. During most of this time, this basin (Tule Lake) was a relatively deep, extensive lake. Except for a drier (and cooler?) interval recorded by Fragilaria species about 2.4 Ma, the Pliocene is characterized by a dominance of planktonic Aulacoseira solida implying a warm monomictic lake under a climatic regime of low seasonality. Much of the Pleistocene is dominated by Stephanodiscus and Fragilaria species suggesting a cooler, often drier, and highly variable climate. Benthic diatoms typical of alkaline-enriched saline waters commonly appear after 1.0 Ma, and tephrochronology indicates slow deposition and possible hiatuses between about 0.6 and 0.2 Ma. The chronology of even-numbered oxygen isotope stages approximately matches fluctuations in the abundance of Fragilaria since 800 ka indicating that glacial periods were expressed as drier environments at Tule Lake. Glacial and interglacial environments since 150 ka were distinct from, and more variable than, those occurring earlier. The last full glacial period was very dry, but shortly thereafter Tule Lake became a deep, cool lacustrine system indicating a substantial increase in precipitation. Aulacoseira ambigua characterized the latest glacial and Holocene record of Tule Lake. Its distribution indicates that warmer and wetter climates began about 15 ka in this part of the Great Basin. Diatom concentration fluctuates at 41 000 year intervals between 3.0 and 2.5 Ma and at approximately 100 000 year intervals after 1.0 Ma. In the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, Aulacoseira solida percentages wax and wane in an approximately 400 000 year cycle. The possible response of Tule Lake diatom communities to orbitally-induced insolation cycles underscores the importance of this record for the study of late Cenozoic paleoclimate change. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

Tectonic and climatic controls on continental depositional facies in the Karoo Basin of northern Natal, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Brian R.

1986-02-01

The eastern Karoo Basin, South Africa, contains a thick sequence of terrigenous clastic sediments comprising a meanderbelt facies, braided channel facies divided into coarse and fine subfacies, fluviolacustrine facies and aeolian facies. Depositional trends and changes in fluvial style reflect a progressive increase in aridity of the climate under stable tectonic conditions, interrupted by two phases of source area tectonism and the development of fine and coarse clastic wedges of the braided channel subfacies; the latter signifying a short interlude of cool, wet conditions. The fine braided channel subfacies occurs in the upper part of the meanderbelt facies, which was deposited by ephemeral, meandering mixed-load streams of variable discharge and sinuosity, under dry, semi-arid climatic conditions. These deposited complex, internally discordant channel sands and well-developed levee deposits. Following deposition of the coarse braided channel subfacies semi-arid conditions returned and fluvial deposition was dominated by ephemeral, straight to slightly sinuous mixed load streams characterised by simple channel sand bodies. As the aridity of the climate increased, the streams became more localised and carried an increasing proportion of fines. Interbedded with and overlying the fluvial deposits is a mudstone-dominated lacustrine sequence grading up into aeolian sands suggesting a playa lake-type situation. The general absence of evaporites from these sediments is attributed to the fresh nature of the lake waters, as evidenced by the freshwater aquatic organisms and clay-mineral suite, the lack of adequate inflow for solute accumulation and the removal of dust impregnated by salts from the surface of the dry lake bed during the dry season by superheated, upward-spiralling columns of air. Broadly similar environments to the fluvio-lacustrine and aeolian facies sequence are to be found in the Lake Eyre Basin of central Australia and the Okavango "delta" of northern Botswana. The Okavango "delta" model has an important bearing on patterns of fluvial sedimentation in arid regions since it shows many characteristics of temperate, well-vegetated anastomosed fluvial systems despite its location in the Kalahari Desert.

Developmental Trajectories of Bullying and Social Dominance in Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reijntjes, Albert; Vermande, Marjolijn; Goossens, Frits A.; Olthof, Tjeert; van de Schoot, Rens; Aleva, Liesbeth; van der Meulen, Matty

2013-01-01

Objective: Bullying is increasingly conceptualized as strategic behavior motivated by a desire to gain social dominance in the peer group. Cross-sectional research has shown that relative to their peers bullies are higher in social dominance as indexed by resource control, and are often perceived as powerful and "cool." However, research examining…

Shifts in the Source and Composition of Dissolved Organic Matter in Southwest Greenland Lakes Along a Regional Hydro-climatic Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osburn, Christopher L.; Anderson, Nicholas J.; Stedmon, Colin A.; Giles, Madeline E.; Whiteford, Erika J.; McGenity, Terry J.; Dumbrell, Alex J.; Underwood, Graham J. C.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration and quality were examined from Arctic lakes located in three clusters across south-west (SW) Greenland, covering the regional climatic gradient: cool, wet coastal zone; dry inland interior; and cool, dry ice-marginal areas. We hypothesized that differences in mean annual precipitation between sites would result in a reduced hydrological connectivity between lakes and their catchments and that this concentrates degraded DOM. The DOM in the inland lake group was characterized by a lower aromaticity and molecular weight, a low soil-like fluorescence, and carbon stable isotope (δ13C-DOC) values enriched by 2‰ relative to the coastal group. DOC-specific absorbance (SUVA254) and DOC-specific soil-like fluorescence (SUVFC1) revealed seasonal and climatic gradients across which DOM exhibited a dynamic we term "pulse-process": Pulses of DOM exported from soils to lakes during snow and ice melt were followed by pulses of autochthonous DOM inputs (possibly from macrophytes), and their subsequent photochemical and microbial processing. These effects regulated the dynamics of DOM in the inland lakes and suggested that if circumpolar lakes currently situated in cool wetter climatic regimes with strong hydrological connectivity have reduced connectivity under a drier future climate, they may evolve toward an end-point of large stocks of highly degraded DOC, equivalent to the inland lakes in the present study. The regional climatic gradient across SW Greenland and its influence on DOM properties in these lakes provide a model of possible future changes to lake C cycling in high-latitude systems where climatic changes are most pronounced.

The Influence of Emission Location on the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Aerosols' Climate Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persad, G.; Caldeira, K.

2017-12-01

The global distribution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions has evolved continuously since the preindustrial era - from 20th century North American and Western European emissions hotspots to present-day South and East Asian ones. With this comes a relocation of the regional radiative, dynamical, and hydrological impacts of aerosol emissions, which may influence global climate differently depending on where they occur. A lack of understanding of this relationship between aerosol emissions' location and their global climate effects, however, obscures the potential influence that aerosols' evolving geographic distribution may have on global and regional climate change—a gap which we address in this work. Using a novel suite of experiments in the CESM CAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean, we systematically test and analyze mechanisms behind the relative climate impact of identical black carbon and sulfate aerosol emissions located in each of 8 past, present, or projected future major emissions regions. Results indicate that historically high emissions regions, such as North America and Western Europe, produce a stronger cooling effect than current and projected future high emissions regions. Aerosol emissions located in Western Europe produce 3 times the global mean cooling (-0.34 °C) as those located in East Africa or India (-0.11 °C). The aerosols' in-situ radiative effects remain relatively confined near the emissions region, but large distal cooling results from remote feedback processes - such as ice albedo and cloud changes - that are excited more strongly by emissions from certain regions than others. Results suggest that aerosol emissions from different countries should not be considered equal in the context of climate mitigation accounting, and that the evolving geographic distribution of aerosol emissions may have a substantial impact on the magnitude and spatial distribution of global climate change.

Measure Guideline: Ventilation Cooling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Springer, D.; Dakin, B.; German, A.

2012-04-01

The purpose of this measure guideline is to provide information on a cost-effective solution for reducing cooling system energy and demand in homes located in hot-dry and cold-dry climates. This guideline provides a prescriptive approach that outlines qualification criteria, selection considerations, and design and installation procedures.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope chronologies from Araucaria angustifolia trees as proxies for investigating the impacts of Andean volcanism on South-Eastern American climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churakova (Sidorova), Olga; Saurer, Matthias; Evangelista da Silva, Heitor; Prestes, Alan; Corona, Christophe; Guillet, Sèbastien; Siegwolf, Rolf; Stoffel, Markus

2017-04-01

Stratospheric volcanic eruptions may lead to global cooling effects due to decreasing incoming solar radiation and perturbation of atmospheric circulation masses. Tree rings as indirect climate proxies, are able to capture information about temperature and precipitation changes from seasonal to annual scale. During past decades, studies of the impact of volcanic eruptions on tree-rings as well as stable isotopes in tree rings were focused mostly on the Northern Hemisphere. However, little attention has been paid to the Southern Hemisphere, particular to South America. Therefore, our goal is to quantify the impacts of Andean volcanism on Eastern South American climate in terms of temperature and hydrological changes over the past half millennium. To reconstruct past hydroclimatic and temperature changes after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions of the past 500 years we analyzed carbon and oxygen stable isotopes from cellulose chronologies from Araucaria angustifolia, indigenous climate sensitive conifer species from General Carneiro, State of Paraná, Brazil. The species distribution in southern Brazil is limited between the latitudes of 18° and 30° south, where species occurrence is often associated with Atlantic forest remnants, in mono dominant or mixed forest matrices. To date, a database of 20 tree-ring width chronologies is currently available and spans the last 634 years. We analyzed that material for precipitation and temperature anomalies, and model allocation of atmospheric circulation patterns after major volcanic eruptions. This will improve our understanding of driving factors of Southern Hemispheric climate over the past centuries. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by Brazilian-Swiss Joint Research Programme (BSJRP).

Turbine Inlet Air Cooling for Industrial and Aero-derivative Gas Turbine in Malaysia Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordin, A.; Salim, D. A.; Othoman, M. A.; Kamal, S. N. Omar; Tam, Danny; Yusof, M. KY

2017-12-01

The performance of a gas turbine is dependent on the ambient temperature. A higher temperature results in a reduction of the gas turbine’s power output and an increase in heat rate. The warm and humid climate in Malaysia with its high ambient air temperature has an adverse effect on the performance of gas turbine generators. In this paper, the expected effect of turbine inlet air cooling technology on the annual performance of an aero-derivative gas turbine (GE LM6000PD) is compared against that of an industrial gas turbine (GEFr6B.03) using GT Pro software. This study investigated the annual net energy output and the annual net electrical efficiency of a plant with and without turbine inlet air cooling technology. The results show that the aero-derivative gas turbine responds more favorably to turbine inlet air cooling technology, thereby yielding higher annual net energy output and higher net electrical efficiency when compared to the industrial gas turbine.

A cool Southwest Indian Ocean connection to El Niño events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieners, Claudia; Manola, Iris; Ridderinkhof, Wim; Dijkstra, Henk; von der Heydt, Anna; Kirtman, Benjamin; Selten, Frank; de Ruijter, Wilhelmus

2014-05-01

Recent studies have shown that anomalously high sea surface temperatures (SST) in the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) can influence early El Niño development by modulating the winds over the western Pacific. We have collected observational evidence for a dynamic connection between relatively cool SST developments in the southwestern Indian Ocean and the following years' El Niño. These cool anomalies appear over the so-called Seychelles thermocline Dome. Depending on strength and timing they generate a fast atmospheric response by stimulating an Indo-Pacific atmospheric bridge that leads to enhanced convection over the western Pacific. The slow oceanic response involves a pathway of upwelling Rossby and Kelvin waves that propagate towards and across the equator. We will present the first results of a series of dedicated climate model experiments. They were designed to stimulate the response of the coupled system to the SST cooling using a global climate model. First results seem to support the observational analysis.

Photosynthetic phenological variation may promote coexistence among co-dominant tree species in a Madrean sky island mixed conifer forest.

PubMed

Potts, D L; Minor, R L; Braun, Z; Barron-Gafford, G A

2017-09-01

Across much of western North America, forests are predicted to experience a transition from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation regimes due to anthropogenic climate warming. Madrean sky island mixed conifer forests receive a large portion of their precipitation from summertime convective storms and may serve as a lens into the future for snow-dominated forests after prolonged warming. To better understand the linkage between physiological traits, climate variation, and the structure and function of mixed conifer forests, we measured leaf photosynthetic (A) responses to controlled variation in internal CO2 concentration (Ci) to quantify interspecific phenological variation in A/Ci-derived ecophysiological traits among ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson and C. Lawson), southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis Engelm.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). Species had similar, positive responses in net photosynthesis under ambient conditions (Anet) to the onset of summertime monsoonal precipitation, but during the cooler portions of the year P. ponderosa was able to maintain greater Anet than P. menziesii and P. strobiformis. Moreover, P. ponderosa had greater Anet in response to ephemerally favorable springtime conditions than either P. menziesii or P. strobiformis. Monsoonal precipitation was associated with a sharp rise in the maximum rates of electron transport (Jmax) and carboxylation (VCmax) in P. menziesii in comparison with P. ponderosa and P. strobiformis. In contrast, species shared similar low values of Jmax and VCmax in response to cool winter temperatures. Patterns of relative stomatal limitation followed predictions based on species' elevational distributions, reinforcing the role of stomatal behavior in maintaining hydraulic conductivity and shaping bioclimatic limits. Phenological variation in ecophysiologial traits among co-occurring tree species in a Madrean mixed conifer forest may promote temporal resource partitioning and thereby contribute to species' coexistence. Moreover, these results provide a physiological basis for predicting the ecological implications of North American mixed conifer forests currently transitioning from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation regimes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO[sub 2] and CO[sub 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufman, Y.J.; Chou, M.D.

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO[sub 2] effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Some general conclusions can be reached. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO[sub 2] emission can presently counteract 50% of the CO[sub 2] greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model,more » 0.15[degrees]C, during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO[sub 2] cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5[degrees]C or 25% for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2[degrees]C for 20% for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be used to validate the presence of the SO[sub 2]-induced cooling. Despite the fact that most of SO[sub 2]-induced cooling takes place in the Northern Hemispheric continents, the model-predicted difference in the temperature response between the NH and the SH of [minus]0.2[degrees]C in 1980 is expected to remain about the same at least until 2060. This result is a combined effect of the much faster response of the continents that the oceans and the larger forcing due to CO[sub 2] than due to the SO[sub 2]. The climate response to a complete filtering of SO[sub 2] from the emission products in order to reduce acid rain is also examined. The result is a warming surge of 0.4[degrees]C in the first few years after the elimination of the SO[sub 2] emission. 64 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, Marie; Debret, Maxime; Massei, Nicolas; Colin, Christophe; deVernal, Anne; Divine, Dmitry; Werner, Johannes P.; Hormes, Anne; Korhola, Atte; Linderholm, Hans W.

2018-01-01

To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ˜ 16-30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ˜ 20-30- and ˜ 50-90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice-temperature positive feedback.

Constraining the long-term climate reponse to stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection by the short-term volcanic climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plazzotta, M.; Seferian, R.; Douville, H.; Kravitz, B.; Tilmes, S.; Tjiputra, J.

2016-12-01

Rising greenhouse gas emissions are leading to global warming and climate change, which will have multiple impacts on human society. Geoengineering methods like solar radiation management by stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection (SSA-SRM) aim at treating the symptoms of climate change by reducing the global temperature. Since a real-world testing cannot be implemented, Earth System Models (ESMs) are useful tools to assess the climate impacts of such geoengineering methods. However, coordinated simulations performed with the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have shown that climate cooling in response to a continuous injection of 5Tg of SO2 per year under RCP45 future projection (the so-called G4 experiment) differs substantially between ESMs. Here, we employ a volcano analog approach to constrain the climate response in SSA-SRM geoengineering simulations across an ensemble of 10 ESMs. We identify an emergent relationship between the long-term cooling in responses to the mitigation of the clear-sky surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDSCS), and the short-term cooling related to the change in RSDSCS during the major tropical volcanic eruptions observed over the historical period (1850-2005). This relationship explains almost 80% of the multi-model spread. Combined with contemporary observations of the latest volcanic eruptions (satellite observations and model reanalyzes), this relationship provides a tight constraint on the climate impacts of SSA-SRM. We estimate that a continuous injection of SO2 aerosols into the stratosphere will reduce the global average temperature of continental land surface by 0.47 K per W m-2, impacting both hydrological and carbon cycles. Compared with the unconstrained ESMs ensemble (range from 0.32 to 0.92 K per W m-2 ), our estimate represents much higher confidence ways to assess the impacts of SSA-SRM on the climate while ruling the most extreme projections of the unconstrained ensemble extremely unlikely.

The challenges of climate for energy markets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

Among the many complex issues of technology, governance, and market design affecting the : electricity sector, climate policy has become dominant. From the perspective of a nonspecialist looking at this changing dominance, a quiz illuminates some of ...

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation

PubMed Central

Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Wickett, M.; Phillips, T. J.; Lobell, D. B.; Delire, C.; Mirin, A.

2007-01-01

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate. PMID:17420463

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation.

PubMed

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M; Phillips, T J; Lobell, D B; Delire, C; Mirin, A

2007-04-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO(2) to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

2017-06-01

Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

Bipolar correlation of volcanism with millennial climate change

PubMed Central

Bay, Ryan C.; Bramall, Nathan; Price, P. Buford

2004-01-01

Analyzing data from our optical dust logger, we find that volcanic ash layers from the Siple Dome (Antarctica) borehole are simultaneous (with >99% rejection of the null hypothesis) with the onset of millennium-timescale cooling recorded at Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2; Greenland). These data are the best evidence yet for a causal connection between volcanism and millennial climate change and lead to possibilities of a direct causal relationship. Evidence has been accumulating for decades that volcanic eruptions can perturb climate and possibly affect it on long timescales and that volcanism may respond to climate change. If rapid climate change can induce volcanism, this result could be further evidence of a southern-lead North–South climate asynchrony. Alternatively, a volcanic-forcing viewpoint is of particular interest because of the high correlation and relative timing of the events, and it may involve a scenario in which volcanic ash and sulfate abruptly increase the soluble iron in large surface areas of the nutrient-limited Southern Ocean, stimulate growth of phytoplankton, which enhance volcanic effects on planetary albedo and the global carbon cycle, and trigger northern millennial cooling. Large global temperature swings could be limited by feedback within the volcano–climate system. PMID:15096586

Simulation-based coefficients for adjusting climate impact on energy consumption of commercial buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Na; Makhmalbaf, Atefe; Srivastava, Viraj

This paper presents a new technique for and the results of normalizing building energy consumption to enable a fair comparison among various types of buildings located near different weather stations across the U.S. The method was developed for the U.S. Building Energy Asset Score, a whole-building energy efficiency rating system focusing on building envelope, mechanical systems, and lighting systems. The Asset Score is calculated based on simulated energy use under standard operating conditions. Existing weather normalization methods such as those based on heating and cooling degrees days are not robust enough to adjust all climatic factors such as humidity andmore » solar radiation. In this work, over 1000 sets of climate coefficients were developed to separately adjust building heating, cooling, and fan energy use at each weather station in the United States. This paper also presents a robust, standardized weather station mapping based on climate similarity rather than choosing the closest weather station. This proposed simulated-based climate adjustment was validated through testing on several hundreds of thousands of modeled buildings. Results indicated the developed climate coefficients can isolate and adjust for the impacts of local climate for asset rating.« less

Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle Effects of Large-Scale Deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M

2006-10-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These are the first such simulations performed using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has amore » net cooling influence on Earth's climate, since the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. While these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.« less

Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

PubMed

Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

2017-12-01

Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development for making decision under land use and climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A combined solar and geomagnetic index for thermospheric climate

PubMed Central

Mlynczak, Martin G; Hunt, Linda A; Marshall, B Thomas; Russell, James M; Mertens, Christopher J; Thompson, R Earl; Gordley, Larry L

2015-01-01

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 µm is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. In this letter we show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F10.7, Ap, and Dst indices. This allows reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to vary significantly over the solar cycle. The NO power is a fundamental integral constraint on the thermospheric climate, and the time series presented here can be used to test upper atmosphere models over seven different solar cycles. Key Points F10.7, Ap, and Dst replicate time series of radiative cooling by nitric oxide Quantified relative roles of solar irradiance, geomagnetism in radiative cooling Establish a new index and extend record of thermospheric cooling back 70 years PMID:26709319

A combined solar and geomagnetic index for thermospheric climate.

PubMed

Mlynczak, Martin G; Hunt, Linda A; Marshall, B Thomas; Russell, James M; Mertens, Christopher J; Thompson, R Earl; Gordley, Larry L

2015-05-28

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 µm is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. In this letter we show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F 10.7 , Ap , and Dst indices. This allows reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to vary significantly over the solar cycle. The NO power is a fundamental integral constraint on the thermospheric climate, and the time series presented here can be used to test upper atmosphere models over seven different solar cycles. F 10.7 , Ap , and Dst replicate time series of radiative cooling by nitric oxide Quantified relative roles of solar irradiance, geomagnetism in radiative cooling Establish a new index and extend record of thermospheric cooling back 70 years.

Staying cool in a changing climate: Reaching vulnerable populations during heat events

PubMed Central

Sampson, Natalie R.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Buxton, Miatta A.; Catalano, Linda; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Conlon, Kathryn C.; O’Neill, Marie S.; McCormick, Sabrina; Parker, Edith A.

2017-01-01

The frequency and intensity of hot weather events are expected to increase globally, threatening human health, especially among the elderly, poor, and chronically ill. Current literature indicates that emergency preparedness plans, heat health warning systems, and related interventions may not be reaching or supporting behavior change among those most vulnerable in heat events. Using a qualitative multiple case study design, we comprehensively examined practices of these populations to stay cool during hot weather (“cooling behaviors”) in four U.S. cities with documented racial/ethnic and socio-economic disparities and diverse heat preparedness strategies: Phoenix, Arizona; Detroit, Michigan; New York City, New York; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Based on semi-structured in-depth interviews we conducted with 173 community members and organizational leaders during 2009–2010, we assessed why vulnerable populations do or do not participate in health-promoting behaviors at home or in their community during heat events, inquiring about perceptions of heat-related threats and vulnerability and the role of social support. While vulnerable populations often recognize heat’s potential health threats, many overlook or disassociate from risk factors or rely on experiences living in or visiting warmer climates as a protective factor. Many adopt basic cooling behaviors, but unknowingly harmful behaviors such as improper use of fans and heating and cooling systems are also adopted. Decision-making related to commonly promoted behaviors such as air conditioner use and cooling center attendance is complex, and these resources are often inaccessible financially, physically, or culturally. Interviewees expressed how interpersonal, intergenerational relationships are generally but not always protective, where peer relationships are a valuable mechanism for facilitating cooling behaviors among the elderly during heat events. To prevent disparities in heat morbidity and mortality in an increasingly changing climate, we note the implications of local context, and we broadly inform heat preparedness plans, interventions, and messages by sharing the perspectives and words of community members representing vulnerable populations and leaders who work most closely with them. PMID:29375195

Sensitivity of the Younger Dryas climate to changes in orbtial, greenhouse gas, and freshwater forcing in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughlett, T. M.; Winguth, A. M. E.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; He, F.

2016-12-01

The Younger Dryas cooling event ( 12,900 years before present) was the most recent abrupt climate change in the geologic record where climate for the Northern Hemisphere returned to a near-glacial state. The cause of this cooling event is widely controversial, and no consensus has been found as to why the onset of the cooling occurred. Of the several hypotheses proposed, the freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean due to meltwater discharge from the retreating Lake Agassiz and subsequent changes in Atlantic meridional oceanic circulation (AMOC) is the most widely accepted one. In this study, the Community Earth System Model version 1 was used to perform sensitivity experiments to test how the AMOC responds to a freshwater discharge into the Northern Atlantic Ocean over the course of 1,000 years. This study is the first fully coupled, moderate-resolution simulation that implements a 13.1ka ice sheet (ICE-5G) along with Younger Dryas boundary and initial conditions. With the addition of the 13.1ka ice sheet and a 0.3 Sverdrup (Sv) freshwater discharge into the Northern Atlantic Ocean, the AMOC reduces by approximately 20 Sv, coming to a substantially slowed-down state of approximately 5 Sv. This reduction of the AMOC causes a decrease in surface air temperature of approximately 15 °C, which is in agreement with surface air temperature reconstructions from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2. Overall, the simulation presented in this study accurately represents the climatic state of the Younger Dryas cooling event.

Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2015-04-01

What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This is related to what is sometimes referred to as "false balance" in media reporting and may partly explain the divergence between public and scientific opinion regarding climate change.

Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

PubMed

Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

2015-04-15

Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating that higher evapotranspiration rates compensated for the higher net radiation at the green roof. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Orbital Drivers of Climate Change on Earth and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zent, A. P.

Oscillations of orbital elements and spin axis orientation affect the climate of both Earth and Mars by redistributing solar power both latitudinally and seasonally, often resulting in secondary changes in reflected and emitted radiation (radiative forcing). Multiple feedback loops between different climatic elements operate on both planets, with the result that climate response is generally nonlinear with simple changes in solar energy. Both insolation history and geochemical climate proxies can be treated as time series data, and analyzed in terms of component frequencies. The correspondence between frequencies measured in climate proxies and orbital oscillations is the key to relating orbital cause and climatic effect. Discussions of both Earth and Mars focus on the last 5-10 m.y., because this is the period in which the orbital history and geologic record are best understood. The terrestrial climate is an extraordinarily complex system, and a vast amount of data is available for analysis. While the geologic record strongly supports the role of Milankovitch cycles as the underlying cause of glacial cycles, orbitally driven insolation changes alone cannot explain the observations in detail. Early Pleistocene glacial cycles responded linearly to the 41-k.y. oscillations in obliquity. However, over the last 1 m.y., glacial/interglacial oscillations have become more extreme as the climate has cooled. Long cooling intervals marked by an oscillating buildup of ice sheets are now followed by brief, intense periods of warming. At the same time, glacial/interglacial cycles have shifted from 41 k.y. to ~100 k.y. No such changes occurred in the solar forcing due to orbital oscillations. While orbital oscillations still appear to pace glacial cycles, their subtle interplay with ice-sheet dynamics and shifts in ocean circulation have come to dominate the late Pleistocene climate system. In contrast to Earth, the martian climate is ostensibly a much simpler system about which we have almost no quantitative data. Lacking climate proxies and chronological data, we are forced to rely on climate modeling and whatever constraints can be extracted from the predominantly remote sensing data available. Obliquity oscillations account for most of the power in historical insolation. Unfortunately, the last 5 m.y. are an anomalous period in Mars' climate history due to a secular decrease in Mars' obliquity. Subsequent to that, however, models and observations are consistent with the hypothesis that during periods of higher obliquity, enhanced polar summer insolation increases atmospheric water vapor and dust content, and ice stability shifted toward the equator. Polar caps become thermodynamically unstable, and much of the surface H2O inventory migrates from high latitudes to the tropics. As obliquity decreases, ice returns to the poles, leaving unstable ice-rich deposits in the mid latitudes that are mantled by dust. Low-obliquity periods entail — at least on occasion — collapse of the atmosphere onto the poles and high-latitude CO2 glaciers. During protracted nodes in obliquity, mid-latitude ice undergoes slow but sustained sublimation and redistribution to the poles. Because of the tremendous breadth of the subject matter, this chapter necessarily presents a high-level overview, and the reader will be compelled to investigate the copious references for a more rigorous explanation of most topics.

Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2011-06-01

Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as well as Northeast South America. However, our model did not agree well with predicted biome distributions in Eastern South America.

Early Stages Of Biome Shift in Boreal Alaska: Climate Sensitivity of Tree Growth and Accelerated Tree Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juday, G. P.; Grant, T.; Alix, C. M.; Spencer, D. L.; Beck, P. S.

2012-12-01

The boreal forest region of Alaska is characterized by a major east-west climate gradient, in addition to a widely appreciated north-south gradient. Low elevations of the eastern and central Interior experience warm summer temperatures and low annual precipitation, while coastal western Alaska has cool summer temperatures and greater precipitation. In the Interior the four dominant tree species of white and black spruce, aspen, and Alaska birch on low elevation sites nearly all register a strong negative radial growth relationship to summer temperatures, concentrated in May and July. Precipitation, particularly in late winter and midsummer, plays a supplemental role as a positive factor in growth. Floodplain white spruce along the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers transition from negative temperature response to positive response in western Alaska near the tree limit. Populations of white spruce on treeline sites display both negative growth response to July temperature and positive response to spring temperatures, with the negative response dominant in the east and the positive response dominant in the west. Across boreal Alaska summer temperatures increased abruptly in 1974, and have remained at historically high levels since. Correspondingly, climatic favorability for radial growth of Interior trees on most low elevation sites has been at extreme low levels particularly in the 21st century. Satellite-based NDVI coverage confirms that forest growth reduction is widespread in boreal Alaska since the 1980s. Defoliating and wood boring insects have reached outbreak population levels across most of boreal Alaska, partly from release of direct temperature control on the insects and partly from increased tree host susceptibility. Major outbreak species include aspen leaf miner, spruce engraver beetle, and spruce budworm. About a dozen tall willow species have been subjected to widespread attack by willow leaf blotch miner, and a new disease and defoliating insect have spread rapidly in alder shrubs, so nearly all woody species face health challenges. Temperatures and precipitation on many Interior sites are now at or beyond tolerance limits for white spruce, aspen, and Alaska birch. Two episodes of acute drought injury were widespread in birch during the last decade. Deficits in climate predicted tree growth are synchronous with the major insect outbreaks as recorded in insect trapping records and aerial surveys of area affected. Over the past 25 years tree mortality of 50% or more occurred in nearly all long-term monitoring plots in mature stands on productive sites in the Interior, but to date trees have successfully regenerated on most disturbed sites. These environmental changes and tree responses, including opposite responses, are coherent, and consistent with early stages of a biome shift eliminating boreal forest on dry Interior sites, and emergence of a new climate optimum zone in western Alaska currently only sparsely populated with forest.

Global climate change driven by soot at the K-Pg boundary as the cause of the mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiho, Kunio; Oshima, Naga; Adachi, Kouji; Adachi, Yukimasa; Mizukami, Takuya; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Saito, Ryosuke

2016-07-01

The mass extinction of life 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, marked by the extinctions of dinosaurs and shallow marine organisms, is important because it led to the macroevolution of mammals and appearance of humans. The current hypothesis for the extinction is that an asteroid impact in present-day Mexico formed condensed aerosols in the stratosphere, which caused the cessation of photosynthesis and global near-freezing conditions. Here, we show that the stratospheric aerosols did not induce darkness that resulted in milder cooling than previously thought. We propose a new hypothesis that latitude-dependent climate changes caused by massive stratospheric soot explain the known mortality and survival on land and in oceans at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. The stratospheric soot was ejected from the oil-rich area by the asteroid impact and was spread globally. The soot aerosols caused sufficiently colder climates at mid-high latitudes and drought with milder cooling at low latitudes on land, in addition to causing limited cessation of photosynthesis in global oceans within a few months to two years after the impact, followed by surface-water cooling in global oceans in a few years. The rapid climate change induced terrestrial extinctions followed by marine extinctions over several years.

Hunted gazelles evidence cooling, but not drying, during the Younger Dryas in the southern Levant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, Gideon; Bar-Yosef, Ofer; Brittingham, Alex; Grosman, Leore; Munro, Natalie D.

2016-04-01

The climatic downturn known globally as the Younger Dryas (YD; ∼12,900-11,500 BP) has frequently been cited as a prime mover of agricultural origins and has thus inspired enthusiastic debate over its local impact. This study presents seasonal climatic data from the southern Levant obtained from the sequential sampling of gazelle tooth carbonates from the Early and Late Natufian archaeological sites of Hayonim and Hilazon Tachtit Caves (western Galilee, Israel). Our results challenge the entrenched model that assumes that warm temperatures and high precipitation are synonymous with climatic amelioration and cold and wet conditions are combined in climatic downturns. Enamel carbon isotope values from teeth of human-hunted gazelle dating before and during the YD provide a proxy measure for water availability during plant growth. They reveal that although the YD was cooler, it was not drier than the preceding Bølling-Allerød. In addition, the magnitude of the seasonal curve constructed from oxygen isotopes is significantly dampened during the YD, indicating that cooling was most pronounced in the growing season. Cool temperatures likely affected the productivity of staple wild cereal resources. We hypothesize that human groups responded by shifting settlement strategies-increasing population mobility and perhaps moving to the warmer Jordan Valley where wild cereals were more productive and stable.

Causes of Cool-Season Precipitation Bias in the East South Central U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukovsky, M. S.; McCrary, R. R.; Rendfrey, T. S.; Schroeder, A. D.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A climatological maximum in cool-season precipitation, secondary to that in the Pacific Northwest, exists in the East South Central U.S. region (ESC). Many regional climate simulations have difficulty reproducing this maximum, whether forced with a reanalysis or global climate model (GCM). This problem exists in some, but not all, of the simulations completed for the North American component of CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and NARCCAP (North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program). We use both of these ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations to examine precipitation and some of the factors that govern its climatology in this region to develop a better understanding of why some simulations perform better than others. The ESC roughly encompasses the Lower Mississippi, western South Atlantic, southern Ohio and Tennessee hydrologic regions. Cool-season precipitation (November-April) in the ESC is often convective in nature and strongly forced. In this presentation, we will examine some of the potential causes of the climatological precipitation bias for this region, including bias in: sea-surface temperature, moisture flux, El Nino-Southern Oscillation teleconnections, and the climatology of extratropical cyclones. We will also examine simulation configurations to identify any common threads between the simulations that perform better and those that perform worse.

Global climate change driven by soot at the K-Pg boundary as the cause of the mass extinction

PubMed Central

Kaiho, Kunio; Oshima, Naga; Adachi, Kouji; Adachi, Yukimasa; Mizukami, Takuya; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Saito, Ryosuke

2016-01-01

The mass extinction of life 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, marked by the extinctions of dinosaurs and shallow marine organisms, is important because it led to the macroevolution of mammals and appearance of humans. The current hypothesis for the extinction is that an asteroid impact in present-day Mexico formed condensed aerosols in the stratosphere, which caused the cessation of photosynthesis and global near-freezing conditions. Here, we show that the stratospheric aerosols did not induce darkness that resulted in milder cooling than previously thought. We propose a new hypothesis that latitude-dependent climate changes caused by massive stratospheric soot explain the known mortality and survival on land and in oceans at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. The stratospheric soot was ejected from the oil-rich area by the asteroid impact and was spread globally. The soot aerosols caused sufficiently colder climates at mid–high latitudes and drought with milder cooling at low latitudes on land, in addition to causing limited cessation of photosynthesis in global oceans within a few months to two years after the impact, followed by surface-water cooling in global oceans in a few years. The rapid climate change induced terrestrial extinctions followed by marine extinctions over several years. PMID:27414998

Late Cretaceous (Late Campanian-Maastrichtian) sea surface temperature record of the Boreal Chalk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, N.; Harlou, R.; Schovsbo, N. H.; Stemmerik, L.; Surlyk, F.

2015-11-01

The last 8 Myr of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval were characterized by a progressive global cooling with superimposed cool/warm fluctuations. The mechanisms responsible for these climatic fluctuations remain a source of debate that can only be resolved through multi-disciplinary studies and better time constraints. For the first time, we present a record of very high-resolution (ca. 4.5 kyr) sea-surface temperature (SST) changes from the Boreal epicontinental Chalk Sea (Stevns-1 core, Denmark), tied to an astronomical time scale of the late Campanian-Maastrichtian (74 to 66 Myr). Well-preserved bulk stable isotope trends and calcareous nannofossil palaeoecological patterns from the fully cored Stevns-1 borehole show marked changes in SSTs. These variations correlate with deep-water records of climate change from the tropical South Atlantic and Pacific oceans but differ greatly from the climate variations of the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that the onset and end of the early Maastrichtian cooling and of the large negative Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary carbon isotope excursion are coincident in the Chalk Sea. The direct link between SSTs and δ13C variations in the Chalk Sea reassesses long-term glacio-eustasy as the potential driver of carbon isotope and climatic variations in the Maastrichtian.

Late Cretaceous (late Campanian-Maastrichtian) sea-surface temperature record of the Boreal Chalk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, Nicolas; Harlou, Rikke; Schovsbo, Niels H.; Stemmerik, Lars; Surlyk, Finn

2016-02-01

The last 8 Myr of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval were characterized by a progressive global cooling with superimposed cool/warm fluctuations. The mechanisms responsible for these climatic fluctuations remain a source of debate that can only be resolved through multi-disciplinary studies and better time constraints. For the first time, we present a record of very high-resolution (ca. 4.5 kyr) sea-surface temperature (SST) changes from the Boreal epicontinental Chalk Sea (Stevns-1 core, Denmark), tied to an astronomical timescale of the late Campanian-Maastrichtian (74 to 66 Ma). Well-preserved bulk stable isotope trends and calcareous nannofossil palaeoecological patterns from the fully cored Stevns-1 borehole show marked changes in SSTs. These variations correlate with deep-water records of climate change from the tropical South Atlantic and Pacific oceans but differ greatly from the climate variations of the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that the onset and end of the early Maastrichtian cooling and of the large negative Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary carbon isotope excursion are coincident in the Chalk Sea. The direct link between SSTs and δ13C variations in the Chalk Sea reassesses long-term glacio-eustasy as the potential driver of carbon isotope and climatic variations in the Maastrichtian.

Future Projections of Heating and Cooling Degree Days in a Changing Climate of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

The use of the degree days method is the most practical way to forsee the future changes in energy demand due to climate change-induced heating and cooling. Since the temperatures in Turkey vary considerably on a regional basis, the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065 have been respectively examined with reference to the period of 1981-2000, taking the mean temperature values into consideration in order to make the most accurate estimation. The future projections were applied based on the RCP8.5 (BAU-business as usual case) emission scenario using regional climate model called RegCM. According to the result of the study, it is projected that the numbers of heating degree days (HDDs) will decrease in the whole country, whereas the frequency of cooling degree days(CDDs) will increase in general. This decrease in HDDs and the increase in CDDs will be higher in the period of 2046-2065 than in the period of 2016-2035. These findings are also consistent with the expectation of temperature increases over these regions for the future period, obtained from the studies of climate modeling for the Mediterranean Basin and Turkey as well. Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220.

Global climate change driven by soot at the K-Pg boundary as the cause of the mass extinction.

PubMed

Kaiho, Kunio; Oshima, Naga; Adachi, Kouji; Adachi, Yukimasa; Mizukami, Takuya; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Saito, Ryosuke

2016-07-14

The mass extinction of life 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, marked by the extinctions of dinosaurs and shallow marine organisms, is important because it led to the macroevolution of mammals and appearance of humans. The current hypothesis for the extinction is that an asteroid impact in present-day Mexico formed condensed aerosols in the stratosphere, which caused the cessation of photosynthesis and global near-freezing conditions. Here, we show that the stratospheric aerosols did not induce darkness that resulted in milder cooling than previously thought. We propose a new hypothesis that latitude-dependent climate changes caused by massive stratospheric soot explain the known mortality and survival on land and in oceans at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. The stratospheric soot was ejected from the oil-rich area by the asteroid impact and was spread globally. The soot aerosols caused sufficiently colder climates at mid-high latitudes and drought with milder cooling at low latitudes on land, in addition to causing limited cessation of photosynthesis in global oceans within a few months to two years after the impact, followed by surface-water cooling in global oceans in a few years. The rapid climate change induced terrestrial extinctions followed by marine extinctions over several years.

Ecosystem services and urban heat riskscape moderation: water, green spaces, and social inequality in Phoenix, USA.

PubMed

Jenerette, G Darrel; Harlan, Sharon L; Stefanov, William L; Martin, Chris A

2011-10-01

Urban ecosystems are subjected to high temperatures--extreme heat events, chronically hot weather, or both-through interactions between local and global climate processes. Urban vegetation may provide a cooling ecosystem service, although many knowledge gaps exist in the biophysical and social dynamics of using this service to reduce climate extremes. To better understand patterns of urban vegetated cooling, the potential water requirements to supply these services, and differential access to these services between residential neighborhoods, we evaluated three decades (1970-2000) of land surface characteristics and residential segregation by income in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA metropolitan region. We developed an ecosystem service trade-offs approach to assess the urban heat riskscape, defined as the spatial variation in risk exposure and potential human vulnerability to extreme heat. In this region, vegetation provided nearly a 25 degrees C surface cooling compared to bare soil on low-humidity summer days; the magnitude of this service was strongly coupled to air temperature and vapor pressure deficits. To estimate the water loss associated with land-surface cooling, we applied a surface energy balance model. Our initial estimates suggest 2.7 mm/d of water may be used in supplying cooling ecosystem services in the Phoenix region on a summer day. The availability and corresponding resource use requirements of these ecosystem services had a strongly positive relationship with neighborhood income in the year 2000. However, economic stratification in access to services is a recent development: no vegetation-income relationship was observed in 1970, and a clear trend of increasing correlation was evident through 2000. To alleviate neighborhood inequality in risks from extreme heat through increased vegetation and evaporative cooling, large increases in regional water use would be required. Together, these results suggest the need for a systems evaluation of the benefits, costs, spatial structure, and temporal trajectory for the use of ecosystem services to moderate climate extremes. Increasing vegetation is one strategy for moderating regional climate changes in urban areas and simultaneously providing multiple ecosystem services. However, vegetation has economic, water, and social equity implications that vary dramatically across neighborhoods and need to be managed through informed environmental policies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with amore » smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.« less

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Climate shapes the protein abundance of dominant soil bacteria.

PubMed

Bastida, Felipe; Crowther, Tom W; Prieto, Iván; Routh, Devin; García, Carlos; Jehmlich, Nico

2018-05-28

Sensitive models of climate change impacts would require a better integration of multi-omics approaches that connect the abundance and activity of microbial populations. Here, we show that climate is a fundamental driver of the protein abundance of Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes and Proteobacteria, supporting the hypothesis that metabolic activity of some dominant phyla may be closely linked to climate. These results may improve our capacity to construct microbial models that better predict the impact of climate change in ecosystem processes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eco-efficiency evaluation of a smart window prototype.

PubMed

Syrrakou, E; Papaefthimiou, S; Yianoulis, P

2006-04-15

An eco-efficiency analysis was conducted using indicators suitably defined to evaluate the performance of an electrochromic window acting as an energy saving component in buildings. Combining the indicators for various parameters (control scenario, expected lifetime, climatic type, purchase cost) significant conclusions are drawn for the development and the potential applications of the device compared to other commercial fenestration products. The reduction of the purchase cost (to 200 euros/m2) and the increase of the lifetime (above 15 years) are the two main targets for achieving both cost and environmental efficiency. An electrochromic device, implemented in cooling dominated areas and operated with an optimum control strategy for the maximum expected lifetime (25 years), can reduce the building energy requirements by 52%. Furthermore, the total energy savings provided will be 33 times more than the energy required for its production while the emission of 615 kg CO2 equivalent per electrochromic glazing unit can be avoided.

Troposphere-to-stratosphere transport in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pommereau, Jean-Pierre

2010-04-01

The analysis of the data collected over Brazil, Northern Australia and Africa from balloons, high altitude aircraft and satellites during the recent HIBISCUS, TROCCINOX, SCOUT-O3 and AMMA European campaigns, has led to significant revision in the understanding of troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Repeated observations of strong updrafts of adiabatically cooled and washed-out tropospheric air rich in chemical and greenhouse gases by convective overshooting over the three continents, demonstrate the high frequency of occurrence of such events in contrast to their generally assumed scarcity. Moreover, global scale information provided by ODIN and CALIPSO satellite observations suggests that the mechanism could play a major, if not dominant, role in troposphere-to-stratosphere transport in contrast to the generally evoked slow ascent by radiative heating. Ignored by global scale models because of their limited extension and duration, convective overshootings might have a significant impact on the chemistry and climate of the stratosphere.

ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

2009-07-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all models between ENSO asymmetry (as measured by skewness or nonlinear advection) and changes in mean state, they exhibit a variety of behaviour with regard to α-stability. This suggests that the dynamics associated with climate shifts and the occurrence of extreme events involve higher-order statistical moments that cannot be accounted for solely by nonlinear advection.

2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

2013-12-01

On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For reference, the conventional AO index is shown by the gray line. (b) a 5-day running mean WP index, (c) area-averaged Surface Air Temperature anomalies in Japan, (d) Air Temperature anomalies, (e) heat flux anomalies, and (f) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. The boxed area on the Sea of Japan indicates the area in which the (d)-(f) indexes were calculated.

A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

2015-12-01

High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback. The suppression of Arctic air formation with warming may act as a significant amplifier of climate change at high latitudes, and offers a mechanistic perspective on the high-latitude "lapse rate feedback" diagnosed in climate models.