Prepharmacy predictors of success in pharmacy school: grade point averages, pharmacy college admissions test, communication abilities, and critical thinking skills.

PubMed

Allen, D D; Bond, C A

2001-07-01

Good admissions decisions are essential for identifying successful students and good practitioners. Various parameters have been shown to have predictive power for academic success. Previous academic performance, the Pharmacy College Admissions Test (PCAT), and specific prepharmacy courses have been suggested as academic performance indicators. However, critical thinking abilities have not been evaluated. We evaluated the connection between academic success and each of the following predictive parameters: the California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST) score, PCAT score, interview score, overall academic performance prior to admission at a pharmacy school, and performance in specific prepharmacy courses. We confirmed previous reports but demonstrated intriguing results in predicting practice-based skills. Critical thinking skills predict practice-based course success. Also, the CCTST and PCAT scores (Pearson correlation [pc] = 0.448, p < 0.001) were closely related in our students. The strongest predictors of practice-related courses and clerkship success were PCAT (pc=0.237, p<0.001) and CCTST (pc = 0.201, p < 0.001). These findings and other analyses suggest that PCAT may predict critical thinking skills in pharmacy practice courses and clerkships. Further study is needed to confirm this finding and determine which PCAT components predict critical thinking abilities.

A group contribution method for the prediction of thermal conductivity of liquids and its application to the Prandtl number for vegetable oils

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodenbush, C.M.; Viswanath, D.S.; Hsieh, F.H.

Data on thermal conductivity of liquids, as a function of temperature, are essential in the design of heat- and mass- transfer equipment. A number of correlations have been developed to predict thermal conductivity of liquids with limited success. Among the correlations proposed so far, only the correlation due to Nagvekar and Daubert is based on group contributions. In this paper, a new group contribution method is developed based on the Klaas and Viswanath method for prediction of thermal conductivity of liquids and the results are compared to the method of Nagvekar and Daubert and other existing correlations. The present methodmore » predicts thermal conductivity of some 228 liquids that encompass 1487 experimental data points with an average absolute deviation of 2.5%. The group contribution method is used to examine the temperature dependence of Prandtl number for vegetable oils.« less

The evolution of polyandry: patterns of genotypic variation in female mating frequency, male fertilization success and a test of the sexy-sperm hypothesis.

PubMed

Simmons, L W

2003-07-01

The sexy-sperm hypothesis predicts that females obtain indirect benefits for their offspring via polyandy, in the form of increased fertilization success for their sons. I use a quantitative genetic approach to test the sexy-sperm hypothesis using the field cricket Teleogryllus oceanicus. Previous studies of this species have shown considerable phenotypic variation in fertilization success when two or more males compete. There were high broad-sense heritabilities for both paternity and polyandry. Patterns of genotypic variance were consistent with X-linked inheritance and/or maternal effects on these traits. The genetic architecture therefore precludes the evolution of polyandry via a sexy-sperm process. Thus the positive genetic correlation between paternity in sons and polyandry in daughters predicted by the sexy-sperm hypothesis was absent. There was significant heritable variation in the investment by females in ovaries and by males in the accessory gland. Surprisingly there was a very strong genetic correlation between these two traits. The significance of this genetic correlation for the coevolution of male seminal products and polyandry is discussed.

Prosthetic use: correlation of clinic team and ergonomic laboratory in predicting its success.

PubMed

March, H; Cummings, V; Steve, L

1984-12-01

A group of 92 patients with lower limb amputations were evaluated in an effort to determine whether an appropriate clinical decision to prescribe a prosthesis could be made without using elaborate evaluation testing. The assessments were made independently by a clinic team and by an ergonomic laboratory, each applying its own criteria for predicting successful prosthetic use. The high correlation between the two areas indicated that the ergonomic laboratory made no additional contribution toward the decision to supply a patient who had no complicating features with a prosthesis. Nineteen patients had significant ST depressions during exercise testing and of these, nine died within one year. Two patients with no ST segment depressions died within one year.

Predicting Firm Success From the Facial Appearance of Chief Executive Officers of Non-Profit Organizations.

PubMed

Re, Daniel E; Rule, Nicholas O

2016-10-01

Recent research has demonstrated that judgments of Chief Executive Officers' (CEOs') faces predict their firms' financial performance, finding that characteristics associated with higher power (e.g., dominance) predict greater profits. Most of these studies have focused on CEOs of profit-based businesses, where the main criterion for success is financial gain. Here, we examined whether facial appearance might predict measures of success in a sample of CEOs of non-profit organizations (NPOs). Indeed, contrary to findings for the CEOs of profit-based businesses, judgments of leadership and power from the faces of CEOs of NPOs negatively correlated with multiple measures of charitable success (Study 1). Moreover, CEOs of NPOs looked less powerful than the CEOs of profit-based businesses (Study 2) and leadership ratings positively associated with warmth-based traits and NPO success when participants knew the faces belonged to CEOs of NPOs (Study 3). CEOs who look less dominant may therefore achieve greater success in leading NPOs, opposite the relationship found for the CEOs of profit-based companies. Thus, the relationship between facial appearance and leadership success varies by organizational context. © The Author(s) 2016.

Characteristics of Successful Community College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forman, Scheherazade West

2009-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative study was to find predictors of student success. Using a predictive correlational design, the intent of the study was to find the relationships between the dichotomous dependent variable with the categories, degree recipients and non-degree recipients, and the independent variables, student characteristics and risk…

CATCHING THE WIND: A LOW COST METHOD FOR WIND POWER SITE ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Our Phase I successes involve the installation of a wind monitoring station in Humboldt County, the evaluation of four different measure-correlate-predict methods for wind site assessment, and the creation of SWEET, an open source software package implementing the prediction ...

Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird.

PubMed

Ouyang, Jenny Q; Sharp, Peter J; Dawson, Alistair; Quetting, Michael; Hau, Michaela

2011-08-22

Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection.

Dimensionality and predictive validity of the HAM-Nat, a test of natural sciences for medical school admission

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Knowledge in natural sciences generally predicts study performance in the first two years of the medical curriculum. In order to reduce delay and dropout in the preclinical years, Hamburg Medical School decided to develop a natural science test (HAM-Nat) for student selection. In the present study, two different approaches to scale construction are presented: a unidimensional scale and a scale composed of three subject specific dimensions. Their psychometric properties and relations to academic success are compared. Methods 334 first year medical students of the 2006 cohort responded to 52 multiple choice items from biology, physics, and chemistry. For the construction of scales we generated two random subsamples, one for development and one for validation. In the development sample, unidimensional item sets were extracted from the item pool by means of weighted least squares (WLS) factor analysis, and subsequently fitted to the Rasch model. In the validation sample, the scales were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis and, again, Rasch modelling. The outcome measure was academic success after two years. Results Although the correlational structure within the item set is weak, a unidimensional scale could be fitted to the Rasch model. However, psychometric properties of this scale deteriorated in the validation sample. A model with three highly correlated subject specific factors performed better. All summary scales predicted academic success with an odds ratio of about 2.0. Prediction was independent of high school grades and there was a slight tendency for prediction to be better in females than in males. Conclusions A model separating biology, physics, and chemistry into different Rasch scales seems to be more suitable for item bank development than a unidimensional model, even when these scales are highly correlated and enter into a global score. When such a combination scale is used to select the upper quartile of applicants, the proportion of successful completion of the curriculum after two years is expected to rise substantially. PMID:21999767

Dimensionality and predictive validity of the HAM-Nat, a test of natural sciences for medical school admission.

PubMed

Hissbach, Johanna C; Klusmann, Dietrich; Hampe, Wolfgang

2011-10-14

Knowledge in natural sciences generally predicts study performance in the first two years of the medical curriculum. In order to reduce delay and dropout in the preclinical years, Hamburg Medical School decided to develop a natural science test (HAM-Nat) for student selection. In the present study, two different approaches to scale construction are presented: a unidimensional scale and a scale composed of three subject specific dimensions. Their psychometric properties and relations to academic success are compared. 334 first year medical students of the 2006 cohort responded to 52 multiple choice items from biology, physics, and chemistry. For the construction of scales we generated two random subsamples, one for development and one for validation. In the development sample, unidimensional item sets were extracted from the item pool by means of weighted least squares (WLS) factor analysis, and subsequently fitted to the Rasch model. In the validation sample, the scales were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis and, again, Rasch modelling. The outcome measure was academic success after two years. Although the correlational structure within the item set is weak, a unidimensional scale could be fitted to the Rasch model. However, psychometric properties of this scale deteriorated in the validation sample. A model with three highly correlated subject specific factors performed better. All summary scales predicted academic success with an odds ratio of about 2.0. Prediction was independent of high school grades and there was a slight tendency for prediction to be better in females than in males. A model separating biology, physics, and chemistry into different Rasch scales seems to be more suitable for item bank development than a unidimensional model, even when these scales are highly correlated and enter into a global score. When such a combination scale is used to select the upper quartile of applicants, the proportion of successful completion of the curriculum after two years is expected to rise substantially.

Novel Automated Approach to Predict the Outcome of Laser Peripheral Iridotomy for Primary Angle Closure Suspect Eyes Using Anterior Segment Optical Coherence Tomography.

PubMed

Koh, Victor; Swamidoss, Issac Niwas; Aquino, Maria Cecilia D; Chew, Paul T; Sng, Chelvin

2018-04-27

Develop an algorithm to predict the success of laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) in primary angle closure suspect (PACS), using pre-treatment anterior segment optical coherence tomography (ASOCT) scans. A total of 116 eyes with PACS underwent LPI and time-domain ASOCT scans (temporal and nasal cuts) were performed before and 1 month after LPI. All the post-treatment scans were classified to one of the following categories: (a) both angles open, (b) one of two angles open and (c) both angles closed. After LPI, success is defined as one or more angles changed from close to open. In this proposed method, the pre and post-LPI ASOCT scans were registered at the corresponding angles based on similarities between the respective local descriptor features and random sample consensus technique was used to identify the largest consensus set of correspondences between the pre and post-LPI ASOCT scans. Subsequently, features such as correlation co-efficient (CC) and structural similarity index (SSIM) were extracted and correlated with the success of LPI. We included 116 eyes and 91 (78.44%) eyes fulfilled the criteria for success after LPI. Using the CC and SSIM index scores from this training set of ASOCT images, our algorithm showed that the success of LPI in eyes with narrow angles can be predicted with 89.7% accuracy, specificity of 95.2% and sensitivity of 36.4% based on pre-LPI ASOCT scans only. Using pre-LPI ASOCT scans, our proposed algorithm showed good accuracy in predicting the success of LPI for PACS eyes. This fully-automated algorithm could aid decision making in offering LPI as a prophylactic treatment for PACS.

Recombination rate predicts inversion size in Diptera.

PubMed Central

Cáceres, M; Barbadilla, A; Ruiz, A

1999-01-01

Most species of the Drosophila genus and other Diptera are polymorphic for paracentric inversions. A common observation is that successful inversions are of intermediate size. We test here the hypothesis that the selected property is the recombination length of inversions, not their physical length. If so, physical length of successful inversions should be negatively correlated with recombination rate across species. This prediction was tested by a comprehensive statistical analysis of inversion size and recombination map length in 12 Diptera species for which appropriate data are available. We found that (1) there is a wide variation in recombination map length among species; (2) physical length of successful inversions varies greatly among species and is inversely correlated with the species recombination map length; and (3) neither the among-species variation in inversion length nor the correlation are observed in unsuccessful inversions. The clear differences between successful and unsuccessful inversions point to natural selection as the most likely explanation for our results. Presumably the selective advantage of an inversion increases with its length, but so does its detrimental effect on fertility due to double crossovers. Our analysis provides the strongest and most extensive evidence in favor of the notion that the adaptive value of inversions stems from their effect on recombination. PMID:10471710

Signal Detection Theory as a Tool for Successful Student Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Ooijen-van der Linden, Linda; van der Smagt, Maarten J.; Woertman, Liesbeth; te Pas, Susan F.

2017-01-01

Prediction accuracy of academic achievement for admission purposes requires adequate "sensitivity" and "specificity" of admission tools, yet the available information on the validity and predictive power of admission tools is largely based on studies using correlational and regression statistics. The goal of this study was to…

Pre-stimulus thalamic theta power predicts human memory formation.

PubMed

Sweeney-Reed, Catherine M; Zaehle, Tino; Voges, Jürgen; Schmitt, Friedhelm C; Buentjen, Lars; Kopitzki, Klaus; Richardson-Klavehn, Alan; Hinrichs, Hermann; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Knight, Robert T; Rugg, Michael D

2016-09-01

Pre-stimulus theta (4-8Hz) power in the hippocampus and neocortex predicts whether a memory for a subsequent event will be formed. Anatomical studies reveal thalamus-hippocampal connectivity, and lesion, neuroimaging, and electrophysiological studies show that memory processing involves the dorsomedial (DMTN) and anterior thalamic nuclei (ATN). The small size and deep location of these nuclei have limited real-time study of their activity, however, and it is unknown whether pre-stimulus theta power predictive of successful memory formation is also found in these subcortical structures. We recorded human electrophysiological data from the DMTN and ATN of 7 patients receiving deep brain stimulation for refractory epilepsy. We found that greater pre-stimulus theta power in the right DMTN was associated with successful memory encoding, predicting both behavioral outcome and post-stimulus correlates of successful memory formation. In particular, significant correlations were observed between right DMTN theta power and both frontal theta and right ATN gamma (32-50Hz) phase alignment, and frontal-ATN theta-gamma cross-frequency coupling. We draw the following primary conclusions. Our results provide direct electrophysiological evidence in humans of a role for the DMTN as well as the ATN in memory formation. Furthermore, prediction of subsequent memory performance by pre-stimulus thalamic oscillations provides evidence that post-stimulus differences in thalamic activity that index successful and unsuccessful encoding reflect brain processes specifically underpinning memory formation. Finally, the findings broaden the understanding of brain states that facilitate memory encoding to include subcortical as well as cortical structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weight centile crossing in infancy: correlations between successive months show evidence of growth feedback and an infant-child growth transition.

PubMed

Cole, Tim J; Singhal, Atul; Fewtrell, Mary S; Wells, Jonathan Ck

2016-10-01

Early rapid weight gain is associated with later overweight, which implies that weight centile crossing tracks over time. Centile crossing is defined in terms of the change or deviation in weight z score during 1 mo, and the correlations between successive deviations are explored at different ages. Two Cambridge (United Kingdom) growth cohorts were used: Widdowson (1094 infants born during 1959-1965) and the Cambridge Infant Growth Study (CIGS; 255 infants born during 1984-1987), each with weights measured monthly in the first year. Weights were converted to WHO age- and sex-adjusted z scores, deviations were calculated as the change in z score between adjacent measurement occasions, and the correlations between deviations were studied. In both cohorts, the correlations between successive monthly deviations were positive in the first 6 mo and highest at ages 3-4 mo (r = 0.3, P < 0.0001), whereas after 6 mo they were negative and were lowest at ages 10-11 mo (r = -0.3, P < 0.0001), with the correlation decreasing linearly with age between these extremes. Thus, during the first 6 mo of age, infants crossing centiles in 1 mo tended to continue crossing centiles in the same direction the following month, whereas after 6 mo they tended to cross back again. This represents positive and negative feedback, respectively. At age 12 mo, the correlation was close to zero, which suggests an infant-child transition in growth. The results confirm that weight centile crossing tracks over time, with the correlations between successive periods that change with age suggesting a complex feedback mechanism underlying infant growth. This may throw light on the link between early rapid weight gain and later overweight. Clinically, the correlations indicate that when predicting future weight from current weight, recent centile crossing affects the prediction in an age-dependent manner.

Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

PubMed

Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

2018-02-07

Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

The historic predictive value of Canadian orthopedic surgery residents' orthopedic in-training examination scores on their success on the RCPSC certification examination.

PubMed

Yen, David; Athwal, George S; Cole, Gary

2014-08-01

Positive correlation between the orthopedic in-training examination (OITE) and success in the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery examination has been reported. Canadian training programs in internal medicine, anesthesiology and urology have found a positive correlation between in-training examination scores and performance on the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada (RCPSC) certification examination. We sought to determine the potential predictive value of the OITE scores of Canadian orthopedic surgery residents on their success on their RCPSC examinations. A total of 118 Canadian orthopedic surgery residents had their annual OITE scores during their 5 years of training matched to the RCPSC examination oral and multiple-choice questions and to overall examination pass/fail scores. We calculated Pearson correlations between the in-training examination for each postgraduate year and the certification oral and multiple-choice questions and pass/fail marks. There was a predictive association between the OITE and success on the RCPSC examination. The association was strongest between the OITE and the written multiple-choice examination and weakest between the OITE and the overall examination pass/fail marks. Overall, the OITE was able to provide useful feedback to Canadian orthopedic surgery residents and their training programs in preparing them for their RCPSC examinations. However, when these data were collected, truly normative data based on a Canadian sample were not available. Further study is warranted based on a more refined analysis of the OITE, which is now being produced and includes normative percentile data based on Canadian residents.

Predicting Student Success via Online Homework Usage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowman, Charles R.; Gulacar, Ozcan; King, Daniel B.

2014-01-01

With the amount of data available through an online homework system about students' study habits, it stands to reason that such systems can be used to identify likely student outcomes. A study was conducted to see how student usage of an online chemistry homework system (OWL) correlated with student success in a general chemistry course. Online…

Simple Predictions Fueled by Capacity Limitations: When Are They Successful?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Schooler, Lael J.; Rieskamp, Jorg

2006-01-01

Counterintuitively, Y. Kareev, I. Lieberman, and M. Lev (1997) found that a lower short-term memory capacity benefits performance on a correlation detection task. They assumed that people with low short-term memory capacity (low spans) perceived the correlations as more extreme because they relied on smaller samples, which are known to exaggerate…

Personality traits and achievement motives: theoretical and empirical relations between the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised and the Achievement Motives Scale.

PubMed

Diseth, Age; Martinsen, Øyvind

2009-04-01

Theoretical and empirical relations between personality traits and motive dispositions were investigated by comparing scores of 315 undergraduate psychology students on the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised and the Achievement Motives Scale. Analyses showed all NEO Personality Inventory-Revised factors except agreeableness were significantly correlated with the motive for success and the motive to avoid failure. A structural equation model showed that motive for success was predicted by Extraversion, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Neuroticism (negative relation), and motive to avoid failure was predicted by Neuroticism and Openness (negative relation). Although both achievement motives were predicted by several personality factors, motive for success was most strongly predicted by Openness, and motive to avoid failure was most strongly predicted by neuroticism. These findings extended previous research on the relations of personality traits and achievement motives and provided a basis for the discussion of motive dispositions in personality. The results also added to the construct validity of the Achievement Motives Scale.

On the same wavelength: predictable language enhances speaker-listener brain-to-brain synchrony in posterior superior temporal gyrus.

PubMed

Dikker, Suzanne; Silbert, Lauren J; Hasson, Uri; Zevin, Jason D

2014-04-30

Recent research has shown that the degree to which speakers and listeners exhibit similar brain activity patterns during human linguistic interaction is correlated with communicative success. Here, we used an intersubject correlation approach in fMRI to test the hypothesis that a listener's ability to predict a speaker's utterance increases such neural coupling between speakers and listeners. Nine subjects listened to recordings of a speaker describing visual scenes that varied in the degree to which they permitted specific linguistic predictions. In line with our hypothesis, the temporal profile of listeners' brain activity was significantly more synchronous with the speaker's brain activity for highly predictive contexts in left posterior superior temporal gyrus (pSTG), an area previously associated with predictive auditory language processing. In this region, predictability differentially affected the temporal profiles of brain responses in the speaker and listeners respectively, in turn affecting correlated activity between the two: whereas pSTG activation increased with predictability in the speaker, listeners' pSTG activity instead decreased for more predictable sentences. Listeners additionally showed stronger BOLD responses for predictive images before sentence onset, suggesting that highly predictable contexts lead comprehenders to preactivate predicted words.

Orbiter windward surface entry Heating: Post-orbital flight test program update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harthun, M. H.; Blumer, C. B.; Miller, B. A.

1983-01-01

Correlations of orbiter windward surface entry heating data from the first five flights are presented with emphasis on boundary layer transition and the effects of catalytic recombination. Results show that a single roughness boundary layer transition correlation developed for spherical element trips works well for the orbiter tile system. Also, an engineering approach for predicting heating in nonequilibrium flow conditions shows good agreement with the flight test data in the time period of significant heating. The results of these correlations, when used to predict orbiter heating for a high cross mission, indicate that the thermal protection system on the windward surface will perform successfully in such a mission.

Predicting Resident Performance from Preresidency Factors: A Systematic Review and Applicability to Neurosurgical Training.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Scott L; Kelly, Patrick D; Dewan, Michael C; Morone, Peter J; Yengo-Kahn, Aaron M; Magarik, Jordan A; Baticulon, Ronnie E; Zusman, Edie E; Solomon, Gary S; Wellons, John C

2018-02-01

Neurosurgical educators strive to identify the best applicants, yet formal study of resident selection has proved difficult. We conducted a systematic review to answer the following question: What objective and subjective preresidency factors predict resident success? PubMed, ProQuest, Embase, and the CINAHL databases were queried from 1952 to 2015 for literature reporting the impact of preresidency factors (PRFs) on outcomes of residency success (RS), among neurosurgery and all surgical subspecialties. Due to heterogeneity of specialties and outcomes, a qualitative summary and heat map of significant findings were constructed. From 1489 studies, 21 articles met inclusion criteria, which evaluated 1276 resident applicants across five surgical subspecialties. No neurosurgical studies met the inclusion criteria. Common objective PRFs included standardized testing (76%), medical school performance (48%), and Alpha Omega Alpha (43%). Common subjective PRFs included aggregate rank scores (57%), letters of recommendation (38%), research (33%), interviews (19%), and athletic or musical talent (19%). Outcomes of RS included faculty evaluations, in-training/board exams, chief resident status, and research productivity. Among objective factors, standardized test scores correlated well with in-training/board examinations but poorly correlated with faculty evaluations. Among subjective factors, aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent demonstrated moderate correlation with faculty evaluations. Standardized testing most strongly correlated with future examination performance but correlated poorly with faculty evaluations. Moderate predictors of faculty evaluations were aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent. The ability to predict success of neurosurgical residents using an evidence-based approach is limited, and few factors have correlated with future resident performance. Given the importance of recruitment to the greater field of neurosurgery, these data provide support for a national, prospective effort to improve the study of neurosurgery resident selection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can maintaining cognitive function at 65 years old predict successful ageing 6 years later? The PROOF study.

PubMed

Castro-Lionard, Karine; Thomas-Antérion, Catherine; Crawford-Achour, Emilie; Rouch, Isabelle; Trombert-Paviot, Béatrice; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude; Laurent, Bernard; Roche, Frédéric; Gonthier, Régis

2011-03-01

preservation of cognitive abilities is required to have a good quality of life. The predictive value of cognitive functioning at 65 years old on successful ageing 6 years later is not established. nine hundred and seventy-six questionnaires were sent by mail to a sample of healthy and voluntary French pensioners. Successful ageing was defined through health status and well-being. Cognitive abilities had been assessed 6 years earlier according to an objective method (Free and Cued Selective Recall Reminding Test (FCSRT), the Benton visual retention test and the similarities subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised) and a subjective one (Goldberg's anxiety scale, Mac Nair's scale and a Visual Analogue Scale to evaluate memory abilities change in the last 5 years). six hundred and eighty-six questionnaires could be analysed. The mean age was 72.9 ± 1.2 years old with 59% of women and 99% lived at home. Well-being was negatively correlated with the FCSRT (r = -0.08, P = 0.0318) but positively related with the Benton (r = 0.09, P = 0.0125) and the similarities tests (r = 0.09, P = 0.0118). There is a negative correlation between anxious and cognitive complaints measured at baseline, and successful ageing indicators 6 years later. preservation of cognitive abilities at the age of retirement can predict a successful ageing 6 years later. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00759304.

CT Texture Analysis of Ex Vivo Renal Stones Predicts Ease of Fragmentation with Shockwave Lithotripsy.

PubMed

Cui, Helen W; Devlies, Wout; Ravenscroft, Samuel; Heers, Hendrik; Freidin, Andrew J; Cleveland, Robin O; Ganeshan, Balaji; Turney, Benjamin W

2017-07-01

Understanding the factors affecting success of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) would improve informed decision-making on the most appropriate treatment modality for an individual patient. Although stone size and skin-to-stone distance do correlate with fragmentation efficacy, it has been shown that stone composition and architecture, as reflected by structural heterogeneity on CT, are also important factors. This study aims to determine if CT texture analysis (CTTA), a novel, nondestructive, and objective tool that generates statistical metrics reflecting stone heterogeneity, could have utility in predicting likelihood of SWL success. Seven spontaneously passed, intact renal tract stones, were scanned ex vivo using standard CT KUB and micro-CT. The stones were then fragmented in vitro using a clinical lithotripter, after which, chemical composition analysis was performed. CTTA was used to generate a number of metrics that were correlated to the number of shocks needed to fragment the stone. CTTA metrics reflected stone characteristics and composition, and predicted ease of SWL fragmentation. The strongest correlation with number of shocks required to fragment the stone was mean Hounsfield unit (HU) density (r = 0.806, p = 0.028) and a CTTA metric measuring the entropy of the pixel distribution of the stone image (r = 0.804, p = 0.039). Using multiple linear regression analysis, the best model showed that CTTA metrics of entropy and kurtosis could predict 92% of the outcome of number of shocks needed to fragment the stone. This was superior to using stone volume or density. CTTA metrics entropy and kurtosis have been shown in this experimental ex vivo setting to strongly predict fragmentation by SWL. This warrants further investigation in a larger clinical study for the contribution of CT textural metrics as a measure of stone heterogeneity, along with other known clinical factors, to predict likelihood of SWL success.

Motivational Correlates of Academic Success in an Educational Psychology Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herman, William E.

2011-01-01

The variables of class attendance and the institution-wide Early Alert Grading System were employed to predict academic success at the end of the semester. Classroom attendance was found to be statistically and significantly related to final average and accounted for 14-16% of the variance in academic performance. Class attendance was found to…

1/f neural noise and electrophysiological indices of contextual prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, S; Brothers, T A; Swaab, T Y

2018-07-15

Prediction of upcoming words during reading has been suggested to enhance the efficiency of discourse processing. Emerging models have postulated that predictive mechanisms require synchronous firing of neural networks, but to date, this relationship has been investigated primarily through oscillatory activity in narrow frequency bands. A recently-developed measure proposed to reflect broadband neural activity - and thereby synchronous neuronal firing - is 1/f neural noise extracted from EEG spectral power. Previous research has indicated that this measure of 1/f neural noise changes across the lifespan, and these neural changes predict age-related behavioral impairments in visual working memory. Using a cross-sectional sample of young and older adults, we examined age-related changes in 1/f neural noise and whether this measure predicted ERP correlates of successful lexical prediction during discourse comprehension. 1/f neural noise across two different language tasks revealed high within-subject correlations, indicating that this measure can provide a reliable index of individualized patterns of neural activation. In addition to age, 1/f noise was a significant predictor of N400 effects of successful lexical prediction; however, noise did not mediate age-related declines in other ERP effects. We discuss broader implications of these findings for theories of predictive processing, as well as potential applications of 1/f noise across research populations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional MRI in Awake Dogs Predicts Suitability for Assistance Work

PubMed Central

Berns, Gregory S.; Brooks, Andrew M.; Spivak, Mark; Levy, Kerinne

2017-01-01

The overall goal of this work was to measure the efficacy of fMRI for predicting whether a dog would be a successful service dog. The training and imaging were performed in 49 dogs entering service training at 17–21 months of age. 33 dogs completed service training and were matched with a person, while 10 were released for behavioral reasons (4 were selected as breeders and 2 were released for medical reasons.) After 2 months of training, fMRI responses were measured while each dog observed hand signals indicating either reward or no reward and given by both a familiar handler and a stranger. Using anatomically defined ROIs in the caudate, amygdala, and visual cortex, we developed a classifier based on the dogs’ subsequent training outcomes. The classifier had a positive predictive value of 94% and a negative predictive value of 67%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.91 (0.80 with 4-fold cross-validation, P = 0.01), indicating a significant predictive capability. The magnitude of response in the caudate was positively correlated with a successful outcome, while the response in the amygdala depended on the interaction with the visual cortex during the stranger condition and was negatively correlated with outcome (higher being associated with failure). These results suggest that, as indexed by caudate activity, successful service dogs generalize associations to hand signals regardless who gives them but without excessive arousal as measured in the amygdala. PMID:28266550

Functional MRI in Awake Dogs Predicts Suitability for Assistance Work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berns, Gregory S.; Brooks, Andrew M.; Spivak, Mark; Levy, Kerinne

2017-03-01

The overall goal of this work was to measure the efficacy of fMRI for predicting whether a dog would be a successful service dog. The training and imaging were performed in 49 dogs entering service training at 17-21 months of age. 33 dogs completed service training and were matched with a person, while 10 were released for behavioral reasons (4 were selected as breeders and 2 were released for medical reasons.) After 2 months of training, fMRI responses were measured while each dog observed hand signals indicating either reward or no reward and given by both a familiar handler and a stranger. Using anatomically defined ROIs in the caudate, amygdala, and visual cortex, we developed a classifier based on the dogs’ subsequent training outcomes. The classifier had a positive predictive value of 94% and a negative predictive value of 67%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.91 (0.80 with 4-fold cross-validation, P = 0.01), indicating a significant predictive capability. The magnitude of response in the caudate was positively correlated with a successful outcome, while the response in the amygdala depended on the interaction with the visual cortex during the stranger condition and was negatively correlated with outcome (higher being associated with failure). These results suggest that, as indexed by caudate activity, successful service dogs generalize associations to hand signals regardless who gives them but without excessive arousal as measured in the amygdala.

Voice correlates of mating success in men: examining "contests" versus "mate choice" modes of sexual selection.

PubMed

Hodges-Simeon, Carolyn R; Gaulin, Steven J C; Puts, David A

2011-06-01

Men's copulatory success can often be predicted by measuring traits involved in male contests and female choice. Previous research has demonstrated relationships between one such vocal trait in men, mean fundamental frequency (F(0)), and the outcomes and indicators of sexual success with women. The present study investigated the role of another vocal parameter, F(0) variation (the within-subject SD in F(0) across the utterance, F(0)-SD), in predicting men's reported number of female sexual partners in the last year. Male participants (N = 111) competed with another man for a date with a woman. Recorded interactions with the competitor ("competitive recording") and the woman ("courtship recording") were analyzed for five non-linguistic vocal parameters: F(0)-SD, mean F(0), intensity, duration, and formant dispersion (D( f ), an acoustic correlate of vocal tract length), as well as dominant and attractive linguistic content. After controlling for age and attitudes toward uncommitted sex (SOI), lower F(0)-SD (i.e., a more monotone voice) and more dominant linguistic content were strong predictors of the number of past-year sexual partners, whereas mean F(0) and D( f ) did not significantly predict past-year partners. These contrasts have implications for the relative importance of male contests and female choice in shaping men's mating success and hence the origins and maintenance of sexually dimorphic traits in humans.

[Determinants of pride and shame: outcome, expected success and attribution].

PubMed

Schützwohl, A

1991-01-01

In two experiments we investigated the relationship between subjective probability of success and pride and shame. According to Atkinson (1957), pride (the incentive of success) is an inverse linear function of the probability of success, shame (the incentive of failure) being a negative linear function. Attribution theory predicts an inverse U-shaped relationship between subjective probability of success and pride and shame. The results presented here are at variance with both theories: Pride and shame do not vary with subjective probability of success. However, pride and shame are systematically correlated with internal attributions of action outcome.

Soil-Bacterium Compatibility Model as a Decision-Making Tool for Soil Bioremediation.

PubMed

Horemans, Benjamin; Breugelmans, Philip; Saeys, Wouter; Springael, Dirk

2017-02-07

Bioremediation of organic pollutant contaminated soil involving bioaugmentation with dedicated bacteria specialized in degrading the pollutant is suggested as a green and economically sound alternative to physico-chemical treatment. However, intrinsic soil characteristics impact the success of bioaugmentation. The feasibility of using partial least-squares regression (PLSR) to predict the success of bioaugmentation in contaminated soil based on the intrinsic physico-chemical soil characteristics and, hence, to improve the success of bioaugmentation, was examined. As a proof of principle, PLSR was used to build soil-bacterium compatibility models to predict the bioaugmentation success of the phenanthrene-degrading Novosphingobium sp. LH128. The survival and biodegradation activity of strain LH128 were measured in 20 soils and correlated with the soil characteristics. PLSR was able to predict the strain's survival using 12 variables or less while the PAH-degrading activity of strain LH128 in soils that show survival was predicted using 9 variables. A three-step approach using the developed soil-bacterium compatibility models is proposed as a decision making tool and first estimation to select compatible soils and organisms and increase the chance of success of bioaugmentation.

Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model From Breakthrough Curve Data Alone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, Thomas; Fakhari, Abbas; Miller, Savannah; Singha, Kamini; Bolster, Diogo

2017-12-01

The spatial Markov model (SMM) is an upscaled Lagrangian model that effectively captures anomalous transport across a diverse range of hydrologic systems. The distinct feature of the SMM relative to other random walk models is that successive steps are correlated. To date, with some notable exceptions, the model has primarily been applied to data from high-resolution numerical simulations and correlation effects have been measured from simulated particle trajectories. In real systems such knowledge is practically unattainable and the best one might hope for is breakthrough curves (BTCs) at successive downstream locations. We introduce a novel methodology to quantify velocity correlation from BTC data alone. By discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and developing an inverse model, we estimate velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where detailed Lagrangian velocity statistics are unavailable. The proposed methodology is applied to two synthetic numerical problems, where we measure all details and thus test the veracity of the approach by comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Our results suggest that our estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and using the SMM with this estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Our methodology naturally allows for estimates of uncertainty by calculating lower and upper bounds of velocity correlation, enabling prediction of a range of BTCs. The measured BTCs fall within the range of predicted BTCs. This novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone is quite parsimonious, thereby widening the SMM's practical applicability.

Musical trends and predictability of success in contemporary songs in and out of the top charts

PubMed Central

Interiano, Myra; Kazemi, Kamyar; Wang, Lijia; Yang, Jienian; Yu, Zhaoxia

2018-01-01

We analyse more than 500 000 songs released in the UK between 1985 and 2015 to understand the dynamics of success (defined as ‘making it’ into the top charts), correlate success with acoustic features and explore the predictability of success. Several multi-decadal trends have been uncovered. For example, there is a clear downward trend in ‘happiness’ and ‘brightness’, as well as a slight upward trend in ‘sadness’. Furthermore, songs are becoming less ‘male’. Interestingly, successful songs exhibit their own distinct dynamics. In particular, they tend to be ‘happier’, more ‘party-like’, less ‘relaxed’ and more ‘female’ than most. The difference between successful and average songs is not straightforward. In the context of some features, successful songs pre-empt the dynamics of all songs, and in others they tend to reflect the past. We used random forests to predict the success of songs, first based on their acoustic features, and then adding the ‘superstar’ variable (informing us whether the song’s artist had appeared in the top charts in the near past). This allowed quantification of the contribution of purely musical characteristics in the songs’ success, and suggested the time scale of fashion dynamics in popular music. PMID:29892348

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falconer, D. A.; Moore, R. L.; Gary, G. A.

2006-01-01

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

STONE score versus Guy's Stone Score - prospective comparative evaluation for success rate and complications in percutaneous nephrolithotomy

PubMed Central

Kumar, Ujwal; Tomar, Vinay; Yadav, Sher Singh; Priyadarshi, Shivam; Vyas, Nachiket; Agarwal, Neeraj; Dayal, Ram

2018-01-01

Purpose: The aim of the current study was to compare Guy's score and STONE score in predicting the success and complication rate of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). Materials and Methods: A total of 445 patients were included in the study between July 2015 and December 2016. The patients were given STONE score and Guy's Stone Score (GSS) grades based on CT scan done preoperatively and intra- and post-operative complications were graded using the modified Clavien grading system. The PCNL were done by a standard technique in prone positions. Results: The success rate in our study was 86.29% and both the GSS and STONE score were significantly associated with a success rate of the procedure. Both the scoring systems correlated with operative time and postoperative hospital stay. Of the total cases, 102 patients (22.92%) experienced complications. A correlation between STONE score stratified into low, moderate, and high nephrolithometry score risk groups (low scores 4–5, moderate scores 6–8, high scores 9–13), and complication was also found (P = 0.04) but not between the GSS and complication rate (P = 0.054). Conclusion: Both GSS and STONE scores are equally effective in predicting success rate of the procedure. PMID:29416280

A Path-Analytic Study of Some Correlates Predicting Persistence and Student's Success in Distance Education in Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojokheta, K. O.

2010-01-01

This study examined the influence of some predictors in the enhancement of persistence and students success in distance education in the two most recognised and respected distance learning institutions in Nigeria--the Distance Learning Institute (DLI) of University of Lagos and Distance Learning Centre of University of Ibadan. The need for this…

Executive Functions Predict the Success of Top-Soccer Players

PubMed Central

Vestberg, Torbjörn; Gustafson, Roland; Maurex, Liselotte; Ingvar, Martin; Petrovic, Predrag

2012-01-01

While the importance of physical abilities and motor coordination is non-contested in sport, more focus has recently been turned toward cognitive processes important for different sports. However, this line of studies has often investigated sport-specific cognitive traits, while few studies have focused on general cognitive traits. We explored if measures of general executive functions can predict the success of a soccer player. The present study used standardized neuropsychological assessment tools assessing players' general executive functions including on-line multi-processing such as creativity, response inhibition, and cognitive flexibility. In a first cross-sectional part of the study we compared the results between High Division players (HD), Lower Division players (LD) and a standardized norm group. The result shows that both HD and LD players had significantly better measures of executive functions in comparison to the norm group for both men and women. Moreover, the HD players outperformed the LD players in these tests. In the second prospective part of the study, a partial correlation test showed a significant correlation between the result from the executive test and the numbers of goals and assists the players had scored two seasons later. The results from this study strongly suggest that results in cognitive function tests predict the success of ball sport players. PMID:22496850

Hardiness commitment, gender, and age differentiate university academic performance.

PubMed

Sheard, Michael

2009-03-01

The increasing diversity of students, particularly in age, attending university has seen a concomitant interest in factors predicting academic success. This 2-year correlational study examined whether age, gender (demographic variables), and hardiness (cognitive/emotional variable) differentiate and predict university final degree grade point average (GPA) and final-year dissertation mark. Data are reported from a total of 134 university undergraduate students. Participants provided baseline data in questionnaires administered during the first week of their second year of undergraduate study and gave consent for their academic progress to be tracked. Final degree GPA and dissertation mark were the academic performance criteria. Mature-age students achieved higher final degree GPA compared to young undergraduates. Female students significantly outperformed their male counterparts in each measured academic assessment criteria. Female students also reported a significantly higher mean score on hardiness commitment compared to male students. commitment was the most significant positive correlate of academic achievement. Final degree GPA and dissertation mark were significantly predicted by commitment, and commitment and gender, respectively. The findings have implications for universities targeting academic support services to maximize student scholastic potential. Future research should incorporate hardiness, gender, and age with other variables known to predict academic success.

Consumer Neuroscience-Based Metrics Predict Recall, Liking and Viewing Rates in Online Advertising.

PubMed

Guixeres, Jaime; Bigné, Enrique; Ausín Azofra, Jose M; Alcañiz Raya, Mariano; Colomer Granero, Adrián; Fuentes Hurtado, Félix; Naranjo Ornedo, Valery

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether the effectiveness of a new ad on digital channels (YouTube) can be predicted by using neural networks and neuroscience-based metrics (brain response, heart rate variability and eye tracking). Neurophysiological records from 35 participants were exposed to 8 relevant TV Super Bowl commercials. Correlations between neurophysiological-based metrics, ad recall, ad liking, the ACE metrix score and the number of views on YouTube during a year were investigated. Our findings suggest a significant correlation between neuroscience metrics and self-reported of ad effectiveness and the direct number of views on the YouTube channel. In addition, and using an artificial neural network based on neuroscience metrics, the model classifies (82.9% of average accuracy) and estimate the number of online views (mean error of 0.199). The results highlight the validity of neuromarketing-based techniques for predicting the success of advertising responses. Practitioners can consider the proposed methodology at the design stages of advertising content, thus enhancing advertising effectiveness. The study pioneers the use of neurophysiological methods in predicting advertising success in a digital context. This is the first article that has examined whether these measures could actually be used for predicting views for advertising on YouTube.

Consumer Neuroscience-Based Metrics Predict Recall, Liking and Viewing Rates in Online Advertising

PubMed Central

Guixeres, Jaime; Bigné, Enrique; Ausín Azofra, Jose M.; Alcañiz Raya, Mariano; Colomer Granero, Adrián; Fuentes Hurtado, Félix; Naranjo Ornedo, Valery

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether the effectiveness of a new ad on digital channels (YouTube) can be predicted by using neural networks and neuroscience-based metrics (brain response, heart rate variability and eye tracking). Neurophysiological records from 35 participants were exposed to 8 relevant TV Super Bowl commercials. Correlations between neurophysiological-based metrics, ad recall, ad liking, the ACE metrix score and the number of views on YouTube during a year were investigated. Our findings suggest a significant correlation between neuroscience metrics and self-reported of ad effectiveness and the direct number of views on the YouTube channel. In addition, and using an artificial neural network based on neuroscience metrics, the model classifies (82.9% of average accuracy) and estimate the number of online views (mean error of 0.199). The results highlight the validity of neuromarketing-based techniques for predicting the success of advertising responses. Practitioners can consider the proposed methodology at the design stages of advertising content, thus enhancing advertising effectiveness. The study pioneers the use of neurophysiological methods in predicting advertising success in a digital context. This is the first article that has examined whether these measures could actually be used for predicting views for advertising on YouTube. PMID:29163251

Entry Grades and Academic Performance in Nigerian Universities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojo, Folayan

1976-01-01

The reliability of Nigeria's entry qualification examinations as a predictor of success at the university level is examined. Results indicate a positive correlation in the science-based fields and very low predictability in the social sciences. (JMF)

What predicts successful literacy acquisition in a second language?

PubMed Central

Frost, Ram; Siegelman, Noam; Narkiss, Alona; Afek, Liron

2013-01-01

We examined whether success (or failure) in assimilating the structure of a second language could be predicted by general statistical learning abilities that are non-linguistic in nature. We employed a visual statistical learning (VSL) task, monitoring our participants’ implicit learning of the transitional probabilities of visual shapes. A pretest revealed that performance in the VSL task is not correlated with abilities related to a general G factor or working memory. We found that native speakers of English who picked up the implicit statistical structure embedded in the continuous stream of shapes, on average, better assimilated the Semitic structure of Hebrew words. Our findings thus suggest that languages and their writing systems are characterized by idiosyncratic correlations of form and meaning, and these are picked up in the process of literacy acquisition, as they are picked up in any other type of learning, for the purpose of making sense of the environment. PMID:23698615

The Use of an Online Learning and Teaching System for Monitoring Computer Aided Design Student Participation and Predicting Student Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akhtar, S.; Warburton, S.; Xu, W.

2017-01-01

In this paper we report on the use of a purpose built Computer Support Collaborative learning environment designed to support lab-based CAD teaching through the monitoring of student participation and identified predictors of success. This was carried out by analysing data from the interactive learning system and correlating student behaviour with…

Correlation approach to identify coding regions in DNA sequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ossadnik, S. M.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Goldberger, A. L.; Havlin, S.; Mantegna, R. N.; Peng, C. K.; Simons, M.; Stanley, H. E.

1994-01-01

Recently, it was observed that noncoding regions of DNA sequences possess long-range power-law correlations, whereas coding regions typically display only short-range correlations. We develop an algorithm based on this finding that enables investigators to perform a statistical analysis on long DNA sequences to locate possible coding regions. The algorithm is particularly successful in predicting the location of lengthy coding regions. For example, for the complete genome of yeast chromosome III (315,344 nucleotides), at least 82% of the predictions correspond to putative coding regions; the algorithm correctly identified all coding regions larger than 3000 nucleotides, 92% of coding regions between 2000 and 3000 nucleotides long, and 79% of coding regions between 1000 and 2000 nucleotides. The predictive ability of this new algorithm supports the claim that there is a fundamental difference in the correlation property between coding and noncoding sequences. This algorithm, which is not species-dependent, can be implemented with other techniques for rapidly and accurately locating relatively long coding regions in genomic sequences.

The multiple mini-interview for emergency medicine resident selection.

PubMed

Hopson, Laura R; Burkhardt, John C; Stansfield, R Brent; Vohra, Taher; Turner-Lawrence, Danielle; Losman, Eve D

2014-04-01

The Multiple Mini-Interview (MMI) uses multiple, short-structured contacts to evaluate communication and professionalism. It predicts medical school success better than the traditional interview and application. Its acceptability and utility in emergency medicine (EM) residency selection are unknown. We theorized that participants would judge the MMI equal to a traditional unstructured interview and it would provide new information for candidate assessment. Seventy-one interns from 3 programs in the first month of training completed an eight-station MMI focused on EM topics. Pre- and post-surveys assessed reactions. MMI scores were compared with application data. EM grades correlated with MMI performance (F[1, 66] = 4.18; p < 0.05) with honors students having higher scores. Higher third-year clerkship grades were associated with higher MMI performance, although this was not statistically significant. MMI performance did not correlate with match desirability and did not predict most other components of an application. There was a correlation between lower MMI scores and lower global ranking on the Standardized Letter of Recommendation. Participants preferred a traditional interview (mean difference = 1.36; p < 0.01). A mixed format (traditional interview and MMI) was preferred over a MMI alone (mean difference = 1.1; p < 0.01). MMI performance did not significantly correlate with preference for the MMI. Although the MMI alone was viewed less favorably than a traditional interview, participants were receptive to a mixed-methods interview. The MMI does correlate with performance on the EM clerkship and therefore can measure important abilities for EM success. Future work will determine whether MMI performance predicts residency performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

THE LANDSCAPE OF THE NEUTRINO MECHANISM OF CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE: NEUTRON STAR AND BLACK HOLE MASS FUNCTIONS, EXPLOSION ENERGIES, AND NICKEL YIELDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pejcha, Ondřej; Thompson, Todd A., E-mail: pejcha@astro.princeton.edu, E-mail: thompson@astronomy.ohio-state.edu

2015-03-10

If the neutrino luminosity from the proto-neutron star formed during a massive star core collapse exceeds a critical threshold, a supernova (SN) results. Using spherical quasi-static evolutionary sequences for hundreds of progenitors over a range of metallicities, we study how the explosion threshold maps onto observables, including the fraction of successful explosions, the neutron star (NS) and black hole (BH) mass functions, the explosion energies (E {sub SN}) and nickel yields (M {sub Ni}), and their mutual correlations. Successful explosions are intertwined with failures in a complex pattern that is not simply related to initial progenitor mass or compactness. Wemore » predict that progenitors with initial masses of 15 ± 1, 19 ± 1, and ∼21-26 M {sub ☉} are most likely to form BHs, that the BH formation probability is non-zero at solar-metallicity and increases significantly at low metallicity, and that low luminosity, low Ni-yield SNe come from progenitors close to success/failure interfaces. We qualitatively reproduce the observed E {sub SN}-M {sub Ni} correlation, we predict a correlation between the mean and width of the NS mass and E {sub SN} distributions, and that the means of the NS and BH mass distributions are correlated. We show that the observed mean NS mass of ≅ 1.33 M {sub ☉} implies that the successful explosion fraction is higher than 0.35. Overall, we show that the neutrino mechanism can in principle explain the observed properties of SNe and their compact objects. We argue that the rugged landscape of progenitors and outcomes mandates that SN theory should focus on reproducing the wide ranging distributions of observed SN properties.« less

QSAR study of curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors.

PubMed

Gupta, Pawan; Sharma, Anju; Garg, Prabha; Roy, Nilanjan

2013-03-01

A QSAR study was performed on curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors using multiple linear regression. The statistically significant model was developed with squared correlation coefficients (r(2)) 0.891 and cross validated r(2) (r(2) cv) 0.825. The developed model revealed that electronic, shape, size, geometry, substitution's information and hydrophilicity were important atomic properties for determining the inhibitory activity of these molecules. The model was also tested successfully for external validation (r(2) pred = 0.849) as well as Tropsha's test for model predictability. Furthermore, the domain analysis was carried out to evaluate the prediction reliability of external set molecules. The model was statistically robust and had good predictive power which can be successfully utilized for screening of new molecules.

Learning strategies and general cognitive ability as predictors of gender- specific academic achievement

PubMed Central

Ruffing, Stephanie; Wach, F. -Sophie; Spinath, Frank M.; Brünken, Roland; Karbach, Julia

2015-01-01

Recent research has revealed that learning behavior is associated with academic achievement at the college level, but the impact of specific learning strategies on academic success as well as gender differences therein are still not clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate gender differences in the incremental contribution of learning strategies over general cognitive ability in the prediction of academic achievement. The relationship between these variables was examined by correlation analyses. A set of t-tests was used to test for gender differences in learning strategies, whereas structural equation modeling as well as multi-group analyses were applied to investigate the incremental contribution of learning strategies for male and female students’ academic performance. The sample consisted of 461 students (mean age = 21.2 years, SD = 3.2). Correlation analyses revealed that general cognitive ability as well as the learning strategies effort, attention, and learning environment were positively correlated with academic achievement. Gender differences were found in the reported application of many learning strategies. Importantly, the prediction of achievement in structural equation modeling revealed that only effort explained incremental variance (10%) over general cognitive ability. Results of multi-group analyses showed no gender differences in this prediction model. This finding provides further knowledge regarding gender differences in learning research and the specific role of learning strategies for academic achievement. The incremental assessment of learning strategy use as well as gender-differences in their predictive value contributes to the understanding and improvement of successful academic development. PMID:26347698

Learning strategies and general cognitive ability as predictors of gender- specific academic achievement.

PubMed

Ruffing, Stephanie; Wach, F-Sophie; Spinath, Frank M; Brünken, Roland; Karbach, Julia

2015-01-01

Recent research has revealed that learning behavior is associated with academic achievement at the college level, but the impact of specific learning strategies on academic success as well as gender differences therein are still not clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate gender differences in the incremental contribution of learning strategies over general cognitive ability in the prediction of academic achievement. The relationship between these variables was examined by correlation analyses. A set of t-tests was used to test for gender differences in learning strategies, whereas structural equation modeling as well as multi-group analyses were applied to investigate the incremental contribution of learning strategies for male and female students' academic performance. The sample consisted of 461 students (mean age = 21.2 years, SD = 3.2). Correlation analyses revealed that general cognitive ability as well as the learning strategies effort, attention, and learning environment were positively correlated with academic achievement. Gender differences were found in the reported application of many learning strategies. Importantly, the prediction of achievement in structural equation modeling revealed that only effort explained incremental variance (10%) over general cognitive ability. Results of multi-group analyses showed no gender differences in this prediction model. This finding provides further knowledge regarding gender differences in learning research and the specific role of learning strategies for academic achievement. The incremental assessment of learning strategy use as well as gender-differences in their predictive value contributes to the understanding and improvement of successful academic development.

Predicting landslide vegetation in patches on landscape gradients in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myster, R.W.; Thomlinson, J.R.; Larsen, M.C.

1997-01-01

We explored the predictive value of common landscape characteristics for landslide vegetative stages in the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico using four different analyses. Maximum likelihood logistic regression showed that aspect, age, and substrate type could be used to predict vegetative structural stage. In addition it showed that the structural complexity of the vegetation was greater in landslides (1) facing the southeast (away from the dominant wind direction of recent hurricanes), (2) that were older, and (3) that had volcaniclastic rather than dioritic substrate. Multiple regression indicated that both elevation and age could be used to predict the current vegetation, and that vegetation complexity was greater both at lower elevation and in older landslides. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients showed that (1) the presence of volcaniclastic substrate in landslides was negatively correlated with aspect, age, and elevation, (2) that road association and age were positively correlated, and (3) that slope was negatively correlated with area. Finally, principal components analysis showed that landslides were differentiated on axes defined primarily by age, aspect class, and elevation in the positive direction, and by volcaniclastic substrate in the negative direction. Because several statistical techniques indicated that age, aspect, elevation, and substrate were important in determining vegetation complexity on landslides, we conclude that landslide succession is influenced by variation in these landscape traits. In particular, we would expect to find more successional development on landslides which are older, face away from hurricane winds, are at lower elevation, and are on volcaniclastic substrate. Finally, our results lead into a hierarchical conceptual model of succession on landscapes where the biota respond first to either gradients or disturbance depending on their relative severity, and then to more local biotic mechanisms such as dispersal, predation and competition.

["Who profits?" - patient characteristics as outcome predictors in psychosomatic rehabilitation].

PubMed

Oster, J; Müller, G; Wietersheim, J von

2009-04-01

The study was to examine how far treatment success in psychosomatic rehabilitation can be predicted from patients' characteristics. The aim of this study included the development of outcome criteria, the analysis of bivariate correlations, as well as development and examination of multivariate models. The motivation for dealing with job-related problems was evaluated separately. Data were available from admission, discharge and three-months follow-up. The data of 463 patients were included. Generated were success criteria concerning sociomedical development, health as well as the ability to work. All success criteria were dichotomized. In the criteria defined, successful outcomes were found in 40 to 60% of the patients. In the bivariate analyses, it was shown that many sick days before rehabilitation, applications for pension, severe disability, high impairment, and suggestion for rehabilitation by the insurance agency, have basically negative effects on success. Correlations with the variables concerning motivation for dealing with job-related problems were rather weak. In multivariate model development, models of different quality were found. For prediction of working ability at discharge, there was an explained variance of nearly 60%. In the other success criteria as well, explained variance amounted to over 20%. The models consist of different constellations of variables, the number of sick days before rehabilitation, variables of application for pension and severity of the impairment frequently included. In case of a current sick leave, rehabilitation should be started early, sociomedical problems have to be dealt with explicitly, and rehabilitation should be accompanied by preparatory and aftercare measures.

A combination of dopamine genes predicts success by professional Wall Street traders.

PubMed

Sapra, Steve; Beavin, Laura E; Zak, Paul J

2012-01-01

What determines success on Wall Street? This study examined if genes affecting dopamine levels of professional traders were associated with their career tenure. Sixty professional Wall Street traders were genotyped and compared to a control group who did not trade stocks. We found that distinct alleles of the dopamine receptor 4 promoter (DRD4P) and catecholamine-O-methyltransferase (COMT) that affect synaptic dopamine were predominant in traders. These alleles are associated with moderate, rather than very high or very low, levels of synaptic dopamine. The activity of these alleles correlated positively with years spent trading stocks on Wall Street. Differences in personality and trading behavior were also correlated with allelic variants. This evidence suggests there may be a genetic basis for the traits that make one a successful trader.

Variation in neurophysiological function and evidence of quantitative electroencephalogram discordance: predicting cocaine-dependent treatment attrition.

PubMed

Venneman, Sandy; Leuchter, Andrew; Bartzokis, George; Beckson, Mace; Simon, Sara L; Schaefer, Melodie; Rawson, Richard; Newton, Tom; Cook, Ian A; Uijtdehaage, Sebastian; Ling, Walter

2006-01-01

Cocaine treatment trials suffer from a high rate of attrition. We examined pretreatment neurophysiological factors to identify participants at greatest risk. Twenty-five participants were divided into concordant and discordant groups following electroencephalogram (EEG) measures recorded prior to a double-blind, placebo-controlled treatment trial. Three possible outcomes were examined: successful completion, dropout, and removal. Concordant (high perfusion correlate) participants had an 85% rate of successful completion, while discordant participants had a 15% rate of successful completion. Twenty-five percent of dropouts and 50% of participants removed were discordant (low perfusion correlate), while only 25% of those who completed were discordant. Failure to complete the trial was not explained by depression, craving, benzoylecgonine levels or quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) power; thus cordance may help identify attrition risk.

Predictive factor analysis for successful performance of iris recognition-assisted dynamic rotational eye tracking during laser in situ keratomileusis.

PubMed

Prakash, Gaurav; Ashok Kumar, Dhivya; Agarwal, Amar; Jacob, Soosan; Sarvanan, Yoga; Agarwal, Athiya

2010-02-01

To analyze the predictive factors associated with success of iris recognition and dynamic rotational eye tracking on a laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) platform with active assessment and correction of intraoperative cyclotorsion. Interventional case series. Two hundred seventy-five eyes of 142 consecutive candidates underwent LASIK with attempted iris recognition and dynamic rotational tracking on the Technolas 217z100 platform (Techolas Perfect Vision, St Louis, Missouri, USA) at a tertiary care ophthalmic hospital. The main outcome measures were age, gender, flap creation method (femtosecond, microkeratome, epi-LASIK), success of static rotational tracking, ablation algorithm, pulses, and depth; preablation and intraablation rotational activity were analyzed and evaluated using regression models. Preablation static iris recognition was successful in 247 eyes, without difference in flap creation methods (P = .6). Age (partial correlation, -0.16; P = .014), amount of pulses (partial correlation, 0.39; P = 1.6 x 10(-8)), and gender (P = .02) were significant predictive factors for the amount of intraoperative cyclodeviation. Tracking difficulties leading to linking the ablation with a new intraoperatively acquired iris image were more with femtosecond-assisted flaps (P = 2.8 x 10(-7)) and the amount of intraoperative cyclotorsion (P = .02). However, the number of cases having nonresolvable failure of intraoperative rotational tracking was similar in the 3 flap creation methods (P = .22). Intraoperative cyclotorsional activity depends on the age, gender, and duration of ablation (pulses delivered). Femtosecond flaps do not seem to have a disadvantage over microkeratome flaps as far as iris recognition and success of intraoperative dynamic rotational tracking is concerned. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Initial Weight Loss after Restrictive Bariatric Procedures May Predict Mid-Term Weight Maintenance: Results From a 12-Month Pilot Trial.

PubMed

Nikolić, Marko; Kruljac, Ivan; Kirigin, Lora; Mirošević, Gorana; Ljubičić, Neven; Nikolić, Borka Pezo; Bekavac-Bešlin, Miroslav; Budimir, Ivan; Vrkljan, Milan

2015-06-01

Background: Bariatric procedures are effective options for weight loss (WL) in the morbidly obese. However, some patients fail to lose any weight after bariatric surgery, and mid-term weight maintenance is variable. The aim of this study was to investigate whether initial WL could predict mid-term weight maintenance. Methods: Eighty patients were enrolled, of whom 44 were treated with the BioEnterics Intragastric Balloon (BIB), 21 with laparoscopic adjustable gastric lap-banding (LAGB), and 15 with laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG). Percentage of body WL and percentage of excess weight loss (EWL) were calculated at baseline and after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Successful WL was defined as EWL >20% for patients treated with BIB and >50% for patients treated with LAGB and SG. Results: Success in the 6th and 12th month was achieved in 80% and 58% of patients in the BIB group, 33% and 40% in the LAGB group, and 60% and 73% in the LSG group. In the BIB group, WL in the 1st month correlated positively with WL at the 6th and 12th month, and an initial WL >6.5% best predicted success (sensitivity 50%, specificity 80%). A similar association was observed in the LAGB group at the 6th and 12th month and an initial WL >9.4% best predicted success (sensitivity 90.0%, specificity 81.2%). In patients treated with LSG, WL in the 3rd month correlated positively with EWL at the 6th and 12th month, with a cutoff value of 17% (sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 100%). Conclusions: WL in the 1st month in patients treated with BIB and LAGB and WL in the 3rd month in patients treated with LSG could be used as a prognostic factor to predict mid-term weight maintenance.

Neural Correlates of Success and Failure Signals During Neurofeedback Learning.

PubMed

Radua, Joaquim; Stoica, Teodora; Scheinost, Dustin; Pittenger, Christopher; Hampson, Michelle

2018-05-15

Feedback-driven learning, observed across phylogeny and of clear adaptive value, is frequently operationalized in simple operant conditioning paradigms, but it can be much more complex, driven by abstract representations of success and failure. This study investigates the neural processes involved in processing success and failure during feedback learning, which are not well understood. Data analyzed were acquired during a multisession neurofeedback experiment in which ten participants were presented with, and instructed to modulate, the activity of their orbitofrontal cortex with the aim of decreasing their anxiety. We assessed the regional blood-oxygenation-level-dependent response to the individualized neurofeedback signals of success and failure across twelve functional runs acquired in two different magnetic resonance sessions in each of ten individuals. Neurofeedback signals of failure correlated early during learning with deactivation in the precuneus/posterior cingulate and neurofeedback signals of success correlated later during learning with deactivation in the medial prefrontal/anterior cingulate cortex. The intensity of the latter deactivations predicted the efficacy of the neurofeedback intervention in the reduction of anxiety. These findings indicate a role for regulation of the default mode network during feedback learning, and suggest a higher sensitivity to signals of failure during the early feedback learning and to signals of success subsequently. Copyright © 2016 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling aboveground biomass of Tamarix ramosissima in the Arkansas River Basin of Southeastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Crall, A.W.; Newman, G.J.

2007-01-01

Predictive models of aboveground biomass of nonnative Tamarix ramosissima of various sizes were developed using destructive sampling techniques on 50 individuals and four 100-m2 plots. Each sample was measured for average height (m) of stems and canopy area (m2) prior to cutting, drying, and weighing. Five competing regression models (P < 0.05) were developed to estimate aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima using average height and/or canopy area measurements and were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). Our best model (AICc = -148.69, ??AICc = 0) successfully predicted T. ramosissima aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97) and used average height and canopy area as predictors. Our 2nd-best model, using the same predictors, was also successful in predicting aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97, AICc = -131.71, ??AICc = 16.98). A 3rd model demonstrated high correlation between only aboveground biomass and canopy area (R2 = 0.95), while 2 additional models found high correlations between aboveground biomass and average height measurements only (R2 = 0.90 and 0.70, respectively). These models illustrate how simple field measurements, such as height and canopy area, can be used in allometric relationships to accurately predict aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima. Although a correction factor may be necessary for predictions at larger scales, the models presented will prove useful for many research and management initiatives.

Theoretical investigations, and correlative studies for NLF, HLFC, and LFC swept wings at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goradia, S. H.; Bobbitt, P. J.; Ferris, J. C.; Harvey, W. D.

1987-01-01

Attention is given to the results of theory/experiment-correlation studies for natural laminar flow, LFC, and hybrid-LFC airfoils at subsonic and supersonic Mach numbers. The method of characteristics, integral compressible boundary layer methods for infinitely swept wings, and a method for prediction of separating turbulent boundary layer characteristics. The integral boundary layer methods are found to be successful at predicting both transonic and supersonic transition phenomena. Computations for wings with 0-50 deg sweep angle, Reynolds number range of 1-30 million, and with and without LFC, are in good agreement with experimental data.

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard

1999-01-01

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Beyond the GRE: Using a Composite Score to Predict 
the Success of Puerto Rican Students in a Biomedical 
PhD Program

PubMed Central

Pacheco, Wendy I.; Noel, Richard J.; Porter, James T.; Appleyard, Caroline B.

2015-01-01

The use and validity of the Graduate Record Examination General Test (GRE) to predict the success of graduate school applicants is heavily debated, especially for its possible impact on the selection of underrepresented minorities into science, technology, engineering, and math fields. To better identify candidates who would succeed in our program with less reliance on the GRE and grade point average (GPA), we developed and tested a composite score (CS) that incorporates additional measurable predictors of success to evaluate incoming applicants. Uniform numerical values were assigned to GPA, GRE, research experience, advanced course work or degrees, presentations, and publications. We compared the CS of our students with their achievement of program goals and graduate school outcomes. The average CS was significantly higher in those students completing the graduate program versus dropouts (p < 0.002) and correlated with success in competing for fellowships and a shorter time to thesis defense. In contrast, these outcomes were not predicted by GPA, science GPA, or GRE. Recent implementation of an impromptu writing assessment during the interview suggests the CS can be improved further. We conclude that the CS provides a broader quantitative measure that better predicts success of students in our program and allows improved evaluation and selection of the most promising candidates. PMID:25828404

Ares I-X Post Flight Ignition Overpressure Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvord, David A.

2010-01-01

Ignition Overpressure (IOP) is an unsteady fluid flow and acoustic phenomena caused by the rapid expansion of gas from the rocket nozzle within a ducted launching space resulting in an initially higher amplitude pressure wave. This wave is potentially dangerous to the structural integrity of the vehicle. An in-depth look at the IOP environments resulting from the Ares I-X Solid Rocket Booster configuration showed high correlation between the pre-flight predictions and post-flight analysis results. Correlation between the chamber pressure and IOP transients showed successful acoustic mitigation, containing the strongest IOP waves below the Mobile Launch Pad deck. The flight data allowed subsequent verification and validation of Ares I-X unsteady fluid ducted launcher predictions, computational fluid dynamic models, and strong correlation with historical Shuttle data.

A predictive assessment of genetic correlations between traits in chickens using markers.

PubMed

Momen, Mehdi; Mehrgardi, Ahmad Ayatollahi; Sheikhy, Ayoub; Esmailizadeh, Ali; Fozi, Masood Asadi; Kranis, Andreas; Valente, Bruno D; Rosa, Guilherme J M; Gianola, Daniel

2017-02-01

Genomic selection has been successfully implemented in plant and animal breeding programs to shorten generation intervals and accelerate genetic progress per unit of time. In practice, genomic selection can be used to improve several correlated traits simultaneously via multiple-trait prediction, which exploits correlations between traits. However, few studies have explored multiple-trait genomic selection. Our aim was to infer genetic correlations between three traits measured in broiler chickens by exploring kinship matrices based on a linear combination of measures of pedigree and marker-based relatedness. A predictive assessment was used to gauge genetic correlations. A multivariate genomic best linear unbiased prediction model was designed to combine information from pedigree and genome-wide markers in order to assess genetic correlations between three complex traits in chickens, i.e. body weight at 35 days of age (BW), ultrasound area of breast meat (BM) and hen-house egg production (HHP). A dataset with 1351 birds that were genotyped with the 600 K Affymetrix platform was used. A kinship kernel (K) was constructed as K = λ G + (1 - λ)A, where A is the numerator relationship matrix, measuring pedigree-based relatedness, and G is a genomic relationship matrix. The weight (λ) assigned to each source of information varied over the grid λ = (0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1). Maximum likelihood estimates of heritability and genetic correlations were obtained at each λ, and the "optimum" λ was determined using cross-validation. Estimates of genetic correlations were affected by the weight placed on the source of information used to build K. For example, the genetic correlation between BW-HHP and BM-HHP changed markedly when λ varied from 0 (only A used for measuring relatedness) to 1 (only genomic information used). As λ increased, predictive correlations (correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values) increased and mean-squared predictive error decreased. However, the improvement in predictive ability was not monotonic, with an optimum found at some 0 < λ < 1, i.e., when both sources of information were used together. Our findings indicate that multiple-trait prediction may benefit from combining pedigree and marker information. Also, it appeared that expected correlated responses to selection computed from standard theory may differ from realized responses. The predictive assessment provided a metric for performance evaluation as well as a means for expressing uncertainty of outcomes of multiple-trait selection.

Fractal Tempo Fluctuation and Pulse Prediction

PubMed Central

Rankin, Summer K.; Large, Edward W.; Fink, Philip W.

2010-01-01

WE INVESTIGATED PEOPLES’ ABILITY TO ADAPT TO THE fluctuating tempi of music performance. In Experiment 1, four pieces from different musical styles were chosen, and performances were recorded from a skilled pianist who was instructed to play with natural expression. Spectral and rescaled range analyses on interbeat interval time-series revealed long-range (1/f type) serial correlations and fractal scaling in each piece. Stimuli for Experiment 2 included two of the performances from Experiment 1, with mechanical versions serving as controls. Participants tapped the beat at ¼- and ⅛-note metrical levels, successfully adapting to large tempo fluctuations in both performances. Participants predicted the structured tempo fluctuations, with superior performance at the ¼-note level. Thus, listeners may exploit long-range correlations and fractal scaling to predict tempo changes in music. PMID:25190901

Linking biomarkers to reproductive success of caged fathead minnows in streams with increasing urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crago, J.; Corsi, S.R.; Weber, D.; Bannerman, R.; Klaper, R.

2011-01-01

Reproductive and oxidative stress biomarkers have been recommended as tools to assess the health of aquatic organisms. Though validated in the laboratory, there are few studies that tie a change in gene expression to adverse reproductive or population outcomes in the field. This paper looked at 17 streams with varying degrees of urbanization to assess the use of biomarkers associated with reproduction or stress in predicting reproductive success of fathead minnows. In addition, the relationship between biomarkers and water quality measures in streams with varying degrees of urbanization was examined. Liver vitellogenin mRNA was correlated with reproduction within a period of 11. d prior to sampling irrespective of habitat, but its correlation with egg output declined at 12. d and beyond indicating its usefulness as a short-term biomarker but its limits as a biomarker of total reproductive output. Stress biomarkers such as glutathione S-transferase may be better correlated with factors affecting reproduction over a longer term. There was a significant correlation between GST mRNA and a variety of anthropogenic pollutants. There was also an inverse correlation between glutathione S-transferase and the amount of the watershed designated as wetland. Egg production over the 21-d was negatively correlated with the amount of urbanization and positively correlated to wetland habitats. This study supports the development of multiple biomarkers linking oxidative stress and other non-reproductive endpoints to changes in aquatic habitats will be useful for predicting the health of fish populations and identifying the environmental factors that may need mitigation for sustainable population management. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting course performance in freshman and sophomore physics courses: Women are more predictable than men

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCammon, Susan; Golden, Jeannie; Wuensch, Karl L.

This study investigated the extent to which thinking skills and mathematical competency would predict the course performance of freshman and sophomore science majors enrolled in physics courses. Multiple-regression equations revealed that algebra and critical thinking skills were the best overall predictors across several physics courses. Although arithmetic skills, math anxiety, and primary mental abilities scores also correlated with performance, they were redundant with the algebra and critical thinking. The most surprising finding of the study was the differential validity by sex; predictor variables were successful in predicting course performance for women but not for men.

A Combination of Dopamine Genes Predicts Success by Professional Wall Street Traders

PubMed Central

Sapra, Steve; Beavin, Laura E.; Zak, Paul J.

2012-01-01

What determines success on Wall Street? This study examined if genes affecting dopamine levels of professional traders were associated with their career tenure. Sixty professional Wall Street traders were genotyped and compared to a control group who did not trade stocks. We found that distinct alleles of the dopamine receptor 4 promoter (DRD4P) and catecholamine-O-methyltransferase (COMT) that affect synaptic dopamine were predominant in traders. These alleles are associated with moderate, rather than very high or very low, levels of synaptic dopamine. The activity of these alleles correlated positively with years spent trading stocks on Wall Street. Differences in personality and trading behavior were also correlated with allelic variants. This evidence suggests there may be a genetic basis for the traits that make one a successful trader. PMID:22292056

Effort, success, and nonuse determine arm choice

PubMed Central

Xiao, Yupeng; Kim, Sujin; Yoshioka, Toshinori; Gordon, James; Osu, Rieko

2015-01-01

How do humans choose one arm or the other to reach single targets in front of the body? Current theories of reward-driven decisionmaking predict that choice results from a comparison of “action values,” which are the expected rewards for possible actions in a given state. In addition, current theories of motor control predict that in planning arm movements, humans minimize an expected motor cost that balances motor effort and endpoint accuracy. Here, we test the hypotheses that arm choice is determined by comparison of action values comprising expected effort and expected task success for each arm, as well as a handedness bias. Right-handed subjects, in either a large or small target condition, were first instructed to use each hand in turn to shoot through an array of targets and then to choose either hand to shoot through the same targets. Effort was estimated via inverse kinematics and dynamics. A mixed-effects logistic-regression analysis showed that, as predicted, both expected effort and expected success predicted choice, as did arm use in the preceding trial. Finally, individual parameter estimation showed that the handedness bias correlated with mean difference between right- and left-arm success, leading to overall lower use of the left arm. We discuss our results in light of arm nonuse in individuals' poststroke. PMID:25948869

Percutaneous Renal Cryoablation: Short-Axis Ice-Ball Margin as a Predictor of Outcome.

PubMed

Ge, Benjamin H; Guzzo, Thomas J; Nadolski, Gregory J; Soulen, Michael C; Clark, Timothy W I; Malkowicz, Stanley B; Wein, Alan J; Hunt, Stephen J; Stavropoulos, S William

2016-03-01

To determine if CT characteristics of intraprocedural ice balls correlate with outcomes after cryoablation. A retrospective review was performed on 63 consecutive patients treated with renal cryoablation. Preprocedural and intraprocedural images were used to identify the size and location of renal tumors and ice balls as well as the tumor coverage and ice-ball margins. Review of follow-up imaging (1 mo and then 3-6-mo intervals) distinguished successful ablations from cases of residual tumor. Patients who underwent successful ablation (n = 50; 79%) had a mean tumor diameter of 2.5 cm (range, 0.9-4.3 cm) and mean ice-ball margin of 0.4 cm (range, 0.2-1.2 cm). Patients with residual tumor (n = 13; 21%) had a mean tumor diameter of 3.8 cm (range, 1.8-4.5 cm) and mean ice-ball margin of -0.4 cm (range, -0.9 to 0.4 cm). Residual and undertreated tumors were larger and had smaller ice-ball margins than successfully treated tumors (P < .01). Ice-ball diameters were significantly smaller after image reformatting (P < .01). Ice-ball margins of 0.15 cm had 90% sensitivity, 92% specificity, and 98% positive predictive value for successful ablation. Success was independent of tumor location or number of cryoprobes. Ice-ball margin and real-time intraprocedural reformatting could be helpful in predicting renal cryoablation outcomes. Although a 0.5-cm margin is preferred, a well-centered ice ball with a short-axis margin greater than 0.15 cm strongly correlated with successful ablation. Copyright © 2016 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

TBI server: a web server for predicting ion effects in RNA folding.

PubMed

Zhu, Yuhong; He, Zhaojian; Chen, Shi-Jie

2015-01-01

Metal ions play a critical role in the stabilization of RNA structures. Therefore, accurate prediction of the ion effects in RNA folding can have a far-reaching impact on our understanding of RNA structure and function. Multivalent ions, especially Mg²⁺, are essential for RNA tertiary structure formation. These ions can possibly become strongly correlated in the close vicinity of RNA surface. Most of the currently available software packages, which have widespread success in predicting ion effects in biomolecular systems, however, do not explicitly account for the ion correlation effect. Therefore, it is important to develop a software package/web server for the prediction of ion electrostatics in RNA folding by including ion correlation effects. The TBI web server http://rna.physics.missouri.edu/tbi_index.html provides predictions for the total electrostatic free energy, the different free energy components, and the mean number and the most probable distributions of the bound ions. A novel feature of the TBI server is its ability to account for ion correlation and ion distribution fluctuation effects. By accounting for the ion correlation and fluctuation effects, the TBI server is a unique online tool for computing ion-mediated electrostatic properties for given RNA structures. The results can provide important data for in-depth analysis for ion effects in RNA folding including the ion-dependence of folding stability, ion uptake in the folding process, and the interplay between the different energetic components.

Anti-Muellerian hormone levels in plasma of Holstein-Friesian heifers as a predictive parameter for ovum pick-up and embryo production outcomes

PubMed Central

VERNUNFT, Andreas; SCHWERHOFF, Mona; VIERGUTZ, Torsten; DIEDERICH, Mike; KUWER, Andreas

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether plasma anti-Muellerian hormone (AMH) levels of Holstein-Friesian heifers could be used to predict ovum pick-up (OPU) and embryo production outcomes. Plasma samples and data were collected from 64 heifers, which underwent repeated OPU with subsequent in vitro embryo production followed by embryo flushing after superovulation. AMH levels were significantly positively correlated with the number of follicles aspirated per OPU session (r = 0.45), recovered oocytes per OPU (r =0.43) and in vitro produced embryos per OPU (r = 0.28). No significant correlations between AMH and in vivo produced embryos were ascertained. Our results suggest that correlations between AMH and outcomes of an OPU-IVF program are too low to use AMH as a precise predictive parameter for the success of a particular OPU procedure in Holstein-Friesian heifers. However, AMH can help to identify groups of very good or very poor oocyte donors. PMID:25482112

Prediction of success in FAA air traffic control field training as a function of selection and screening test performance.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-05-01

This study compared correlations between Office of Personnel Management (OPM) selection test scores for Air Traffic Control Specialists (ATCSs) and scores from the FAA Academy's second-stage screening program with measures of field training performan...

"Anti-Mullerian Hormone: Marker for Ovarian Response in Controlled Ovarian Stimulation for IVF Patients": A First Pilot Study in the Indian Population.

PubMed

Singh, Neeta; Malik, Ekta; Banerjee, Ayan; Chosdol, Kunzang; Sreenivas, V; Mittal, Suneeta

2013-08-01

To measure the levels of early follicular phase Anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) in Indian patients of IVF and to evaluate the AMH as a predictive marker of ovarian response in assisted reproductive technology outcome. Sixty women (age 25-40 years) selected for in vitro fertilization treatment were included in this study. Analysis of day-2 serum samples was done for the AMH, FSH, Inhibin B, and LH by ELISA kit methods. USG was done for the antral follicle count (AFC) and oocytes' retrieval. Hormone parameters were compared and correlated with the oocytes' retrieval count and the AFC. The discriminant analysis was done to compare relevance of different parameters for predicting ovarian response. The Anti-Mullerian hormone showed a significant correlation with the oocytes' retrieval after ovulation induction for IVF (r = 0.648, p < 0.0001) and no correlation was seen with serum FSH, LH, and Inhibin. Serum AMH levels show 80 % sensitivity and 80 % specificity in predicting poor ovarian response. There is a significant correlation between day-2 serum AMH levels and the oocytes' retrieval count in women undergoing ovulation induction for IVF, and the AMH is a good marker as the negative predictive values for the success of ART. There is no correlation found between other hormonal ovarian reserve markers and the oocytes' retrieval count.

Recalling and forgetting dreams: theta and alpha oscillations during sleep predict subsequent dream recall.

PubMed

Marzano, Cristina; Ferrara, Michele; Mauro, Federica; Moroni, Fabio; Gorgoni, Maurizio; Tempesta, Daniela; Cipolli, Carlo; De Gennaro, Luigi

2011-05-04

Under the assumption that dream recall is a peculiar form of declarative memory, we have hypothesized that (1) the encoding of dream contents during sleep should share some electrophysiological mechanisms with the encoding of episodic memories of the awake brain and (2) recalling a dream(s) after awakening from non-rapid eye movement (NREM) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep should be associated with different brain oscillations. Here, we report that cortical brain oscillations of human sleep are predictive of successful dream recall. In particular, after morning awakening from REM sleep, a higher frontal 5-7 Hz (theta) activity was associated with successful dream recall. This finding mirrors the increase in frontal theta activity during successful encoding of episodic memories in wakefulness. Moreover, in keeping with the different EEG background, a different predictive relationship was found after awakening from stage 2 NREM sleep. Specifically, a lower 8-12 Hz (alpha) oscillatory activity of the right temporal area was associated with a successful dream recall. These findings provide the first evidence of univocal cortical electroencephalographic correlates of dream recall, suggesting that the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying the encoding and recall of episodic memories may remain the same across different states of consciousness.

Duct Diameter and Size of Stones Predict Successful Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy and Endoscopic Clearance in Patients With Chronic Pancreatitis and Pancreaticolithiasis.

PubMed

Lapp, Robert T; Wolf, J Stuart; Faerber, Gary J; Roberts, William W; McCarthy, Sean T; Anderson, Michelle A; Wamsteker, Erik-Jan; Elta, Grace H; Scheiman, James M; Kwon, Richard S

2016-09-01

The need for endoscopic therapy before extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) to facilitate pancreatic duct stone removal is unclear. Predictive factors associated with successful fragmentation and subsequent complete duct clearance are variable. We hypothesize pancreatic duct strictures and large stones, but not pre-SWL endotherapy, correlate with successful fragmentation and complete duct clearance. A retrospective cohort study of patients with pancreaticolithiasis who underwent SWL and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography between January 2009 and June 2014 was evaluated. Thirty-seven patients were treated. Technical success (TS) of fragmentation was achieved in 22 patients (60%). Technical success was associated with fewer stones and SWL sessions and smaller stone and duct size. By multivariate logistic regression, only duct dilation was associated with TS. Endoscopic success of complete duct clearance was achieved in 29 patients (80%). Endoscopic success was more frequent with stones 12 mm or less and with successful TS. By multivariate logistic regression, stones greater than 12 mm were associated with endoscopic failure. Pre-SWL endotherapy does not affect stone fragmentation. Patients with a dilated duct (>8 mm) and pancreatic stones 12 mm or greater were associated with unsuccessful TS and endoscopic success, respectively, and may benefit from early referral for surgical decompression.

HESI admission assessment (A(2)) examination scores, program progression, and NCLEX-RN success in baccalaureate nursing: an exploratory study of dependable academic indicators of success.

PubMed

Hinderer, Katherine A; DiBartolo, Mary C; Walsh, Catherine M

2014-01-01

In an effort to meet the demand for well-educated, high-quality nurses, schools of nursing seek to admit those candidates most likely to have both timely progression and first-time success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN). Finding the right combination of academic indicators, which are most predictive of success, continues to be an ongoing challenge for entry-level baccalaureate nursing programs across the United States. This pilot study explored the relationship of a standardized admission examination, the Health Education Systems, Inc. (HESI) Admission Assessment (A(2)) Examination to preadmission grade point average (GPA), science GPA, and nursing GPA using a retrospective descriptive design. In addition, the predictive ability of the A(2) Examination, preadmission GPA, and science GPA related to timely progression and NCLEX-RN success were explored. In a sample of 89 students, no relationship was found between the A(2) Examination and preadmission GPA or science GPA. The A(2) Examination was correlated with nursing GPA and NCLEX-RN success but not with timely progression. Further studies are needed to explore the utility and predictive ability of standardized examinations such as the A(2) Examination and the contribution of such examinations to evidence-based admission decision making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Why abundant tropical tree species are phylogenetically old.

PubMed

Wang, Shaopeng; Chen, Anping; Fang, Jingyun; Pacala, Stephen W

2013-10-01

Neutral models of species diversity predict patterns of abundance for communities in which all individuals are ecologically equivalent. These models were originally developed for Panamanian trees and successfully reproduce observed distributions of abundance. Neutral models also make macroevolutionary predictions that have rarely been evaluated or tested. Here we show that neutral models predict a humped or flat relationship between species age and population size. In contrast, ages and abundances of tree species in the Panamanian Canal watershed are found to be positively correlated, which falsifies the models. Speciation rates vary among phylogenetic lineages and are partially heritable from mother to daughter species. Variable speciation rates in an otherwise neutral model lead to a demographic advantage for species with low speciation rate. This demographic advantage results in a positive correlation between species age and abundance, as found in the Panamanian tropical forest community.

Predictors of Persistence in Online Graduate Nursing Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cauble, Denise

2015-01-01

Persistence is an important measure of success for individual students and institutions of higher learning. The purpose of this study was to explore personal and academic factors that influence persistence in online graduate nursing students. A predictive correlational study design was used. Data were extracted from existing student records in two…

Seeing what you want to see: priors for one's own actions represent exaggerated expectations of success

PubMed Central

Wolpe, Noham; Wolpert, Daniel M.; Rowe, James B.

2014-01-01

People perceive the consequences of their own actions differently to how they perceive other sensory events. A large body of psychology research has shown that people also consistently overrate their own performance relative to others, yet little is known about how these “illusions of superiority” are normally maintained. Here we examined the visual perception of the sensory consequences of self-generated and observed goal-directed actions. Across a series of visuomotor tasks, we found that the perception of the sensory consequences of one's own actions is more biased toward success relative to the perception of observed actions. Using Bayesian models, we show that this bias could be explained by priors that represent exaggerated predictions of success. The degree of exaggeration of priors was unaffected by learning, but was correlated with individual differences in trait optimism. In contrast, when observing these actions, priors represented more accurate predictions of the actual performance. The results suggest that the brain internally represents optimistic predictions for one's own actions. Such exaggerated predictions bind the sensory consequences of our own actions with our intended goal, explaining how it is that when acting we tend to see what we want to see. PMID:25018710

Brain size predicts problem-solving ability in mammalian carnivores

PubMed Central

Benson-Amram, Sarah; Dantzer, Ben; Stricker, Gregory; Swanson, Eli M.; Holekamp, Kay E.

2016-01-01

Despite considerable interest in the forces shaping the relationship between brain size and cognitive abilities, it remains controversial whether larger-brained animals are, indeed, better problem-solvers. Recently, several comparative studies have revealed correlations between brain size and traits thought to require advanced cognitive abilities, such as innovation, behavioral flexibility, invasion success, and self-control. However, the general assumption that animals with larger brains have superior cognitive abilities has been heavily criticized, primarily because of the lack of experimental support for it. Here, we designed an experiment to inquire whether specific neuroanatomical or socioecological measures predict success at solving a novel technical problem among species in the mammalian order Carnivora. We presented puzzle boxes, baited with food and scaled to accommodate body size, to members of 39 carnivore species from nine families housed in multiple North American zoos. We found that species with larger brains relative to their body mass were more successful at opening the boxes. In a subset of species, we also used virtual brain endocasts to measure volumes of four gross brain regions and show that some of these regions improve model prediction of success at opening the boxes when included with total brain size and body mass. Socioecological variables, including measures of social complexity and manual dexterity, failed to predict success at opening the boxes. Our results, thus, fail to support the social brain hypothesis but provide important empirical support for the relationship between relative brain size and the ability to solve this novel technical problem. PMID:26811470

Brain size predicts problem-solving ability in mammalian carnivores.

PubMed

Benson-Amram, Sarah; Dantzer, Ben; Stricker, Gregory; Swanson, Eli M; Holekamp, Kay E

2016-03-01

Despite considerable interest in the forces shaping the relationship between brain size and cognitive abilities, it remains controversial whether larger-brained animals are, indeed, better problem-solvers. Recently, several comparative studies have revealed correlations between brain size and traits thought to require advanced cognitive abilities, such as innovation, behavioral flexibility, invasion success, and self-control. However, the general assumption that animals with larger brains have superior cognitive abilities has been heavily criticized, primarily because of the lack of experimental support for it. Here, we designed an experiment to inquire whether specific neuroanatomical or socioecological measures predict success at solving a novel technical problem among species in the mammalian order Carnivora. We presented puzzle boxes, baited with food and scaled to accommodate body size, to members of 39 carnivore species from nine families housed in multiple North American zoos. We found that species with larger brains relative to their body mass were more successful at opening the boxes. In a subset of species, we also used virtual brain endocasts to measure volumes of four gross brain regions and show that some of these regions improve model prediction of success at opening the boxes when included with total brain size and body mass. Socioecological variables, including measures of social complexity and manual dexterity, failed to predict success at opening the boxes. Our results, thus, fail to support the social brain hypothesis but provide important empirical support for the relationship between relative brain size and the ability to solve this novel technical problem.

Facial Shape Analysis Identifies Valid Cues to Aspects of Physiological Health in Caucasian, Asian, and African Populations.

PubMed

Stephen, Ian D; Hiew, Vivian; Coetzee, Vinet; Tiddeman, Bernard P; Perrett, David I

2017-01-01

Facial cues contribute to attractiveness, including shape cues such as symmetry, averageness, and sexual dimorphism. These cues may represent cues to objective aspects of physiological health, thereby conferring an evolutionary advantage to individuals who find them attractive. The link between facial cues and aspects of physiological health is therefore central to evolutionary explanations of attractiveness. Previously, studies linking facial cues to aspects of physiological health have been infrequent, have had mixed results, and have tended to focus on individual facial cues in isolation. Geometric morphometric methodology (GMM) allows a bottom-up approach to identifying shape correlates of aspects of physiological health. Here, we apply GMM to facial shape data, producing models that successfully predict aspects of physiological health in 272 Asian, African, and Caucasian faces - percentage body fat (21.0% of variance explained), body mass index (BMI; 31.9%) and blood pressure (BP; 21.3%). Models successfully predict percentage body fat and blood pressure even when controlling for BMI, suggesting that they are not simply measuring body size. Predicted values of BMI and BP, but not percentage body fat, correlate with health ratings. When asked to manipulate the shape of faces along the physiological health variable axes (as determined by the models), participants reduced predicted BMI, body fat and (marginally) BP, suggesting that facial shape provides a valid cue to aspects of physiological health.

Facial Shape Analysis Identifies Valid Cues to Aspects of Physiological Health in Caucasian, Asian, and African Populations

PubMed Central

Stephen, Ian D.; Hiew, Vivian; Coetzee, Vinet; Tiddeman, Bernard P.; Perrett, David I.

2017-01-01

Facial cues contribute to attractiveness, including shape cues such as symmetry, averageness, and sexual dimorphism. These cues may represent cues to objective aspects of physiological health, thereby conferring an evolutionary advantage to individuals who find them attractive. The link between facial cues and aspects of physiological health is therefore central to evolutionary explanations of attractiveness. Previously, studies linking facial cues to aspects of physiological health have been infrequent, have had mixed results, and have tended to focus on individual facial cues in isolation. Geometric morphometric methodology (GMM) allows a bottom–up approach to identifying shape correlates of aspects of physiological health. Here, we apply GMM to facial shape data, producing models that successfully predict aspects of physiological health in 272 Asian, African, and Caucasian faces – percentage body fat (21.0% of variance explained), body mass index (BMI; 31.9%) and blood pressure (BP; 21.3%). Models successfully predict percentage body fat and blood pressure even when controlling for BMI, suggesting that they are not simply measuring body size. Predicted values of BMI and BP, but not percentage body fat, correlate with health ratings. When asked to manipulate the shape of faces along the physiological health variable axes (as determined by the models), participants reduced predicted BMI, body fat and (marginally) BP, suggesting that facial shape provides a valid cue to aspects of physiological health. PMID:29163270

Success rates of a skeletal anchorage system in orthodontics: A retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Lam, Raymond; Goonewardene, Mithran S; Allan, Brent P; Sugawara, Junji

2018-01-01

To evaluate the premise that skeletal anchorage with SAS miniplates are highly successful and predictable for a range of complex orthodontic movements. This retrospective cross-sectional analysis consisted of 421 bone plates placed by one clinician in 163 patients (95 female, 68 male, mean age 29.4 years ± 12.02). Simple descriptive statistics were performed for a wide range of malocclusions and desired movements to obtain success, complication, and failure rates. The success rate of skeletal anchorage system miniplates was 98.6%, where approximately 40% of cases experienced mild complications. The most common complication was soft tissue inflammation, which was amenable to focused oral hygiene and antiseptic rinses. Infection occurred in approximately 15% of patients where there was a statistically significant correlation with poor oral hygiene. The most common movements were distalization and intrusion of teeth. More than a third of the cases involved complex movements in more than one plane of space. The success rate of skeletal anchorage system miniplates is high and predictable for a wide range of complex orthodontic movements.

Development of In Vitro-In Vivo Correlation for Potassium Chloride Extended Release Tablet Formulation Using Urinary Pharmacokinetic Data.

PubMed

Mittapalli, Rajendar K; Marroum, Patrick; Qiu, Yihong; Apfelbaum, Kathleen; Xiong, Hao

2017-07-01

To develop and validate a Level A in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) for potassium chloride extended-release (ER) formulations. Three prototype ER formulations of potassium chloride with different in vitro release rates were developed and their urinary pharmacokinetic profiles were evaluated in healthy subjects. A mathematical model between in vitro dissolution and in vivo urinary excretion, a surrogate for measuring in vivo absorption, was developed using time-scale and time-shift parameters. The IVIVC model was then validated based on internal and external predictability. With the established IVIVC model, there was a good correlation between the observed fraction of dose excreted in urine and the time-scaled and time-shifted fraction of the drug dissolved, and between the in vitro dissolution time and the in vivo urinary excretion time for the ER formulations. The percent prediction error (%PE) on cumulative urinary excretion over the 24 h interval (A e0-24h ) and maximum urinary excretion rate (R max ) was less than 15% for the individual formulations and less than 10% for the average of the two formulations used to develop the model. Further, the %PE values using external predictability were below 10%. A novel Level A IVIVC was successfully developed and validated for the new potassium chloride ER formulations using urinary pharmacokinetic data. This successful IVIVC may facilitate future development or manufacturing changes to the potassium chloride ER formulation.

Correlation between clot density and recanalization success or stroke etiology in acute ischemic stroke patients

PubMed Central

Kallmes, David F; Brinjikji, Waleed

2017-01-01

Background Predicting recanalization success for patients undergoing endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke is of significant interest. Studies have previously correlated the success of recanalization with the density of the clot. We evaluated clot density and its relationship to revascularization success and stroke etiology. Methods We conducted a retrospective review of 118 patients undergoing intra-arterial therapy for acute ischemic stroke. Mean and maximum thrombus density was measured by drawing a circular region of interest on an axial slice of a non-contrast computed tomography scan. T-tests were used to compare clot density to recanalization success or to stroke etiology, namely large artery atherosclerosis and cardioembolism. Recanalization success was compared in four device groups: aspiration, stent retriever, aspiration and stent retriever, and all other. Results There was no significant difference in the mean clot density in patients with successful (n = 80) versus unsuccessful recanalization (n = 38, 50.1 ± 7.4 Hounsfield unit (HU) vs. 53 ± 12.7 HU; P = 0.17). Comparing the large artery thromboembolism (n = 35) to the cardioembolic etiology group (n = 56), there was no significant difference in mean clot density (51.5 ± 7.7 HU vs. 49.7 ± 8.5 HU; P = 0.31). A subgroup analysis of middle cerebral artery occlusions (n = 65) showed similar, non-statistically significant differences between groups. There was no difference in the rate of recanalization success in patients with a mean clot density greater than 50 HU or less than 50 HU in each of the four device groups. Conclusions There was no relationship between clot density and revascularization success or stroke etiology in our study. More research is needed to determine if clot density can predict recanalization rates or indicate etiology. PMID:28604188

Self-Efficacy for Cocaine Abstinence: Pretreatment Correlates and Relationship to Outcomes

PubMed Central

Dolan, Sara L.; Martin, Rosemarie A.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.

2009-01-01

Little research has been conducted on the relationship of self-efficacy at treatment entry to individual differences or to treatment outcome for patients with cocaine dependence. Those relationships were examined in 163 cocaine dependent patients in a residential treatment program using two measures of self-efficacy administered in the first week of treatment: beliefs about success in quitting in general and confidence about not using in 11 cocaine-specific high-risk situations. The most robust correlates of self-efficacy were greater desire to stop using and lower urge to use in high-risk situations. Age, depressive symptoms, cognitive functioning, recent substance use, and past success with quitting also correlated with self-efficacy. Both measures of self-efficacy predicted quantity and frequency of cocaine use and abstinence at 3 but not 6 months after treatment after controlling pretreatment cocaine use. Results suggest that treatments should target self-efficacy in cocaine-dependent patients. PMID:18191329

The influence of anthropometrics on physical employment standard performance.

PubMed

Reilly, T; Spivock, M; Prayal-Brown, A; Stockbrugger, B; Blacklock, R

2016-10-01

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) recently implemented the Fitness for Operational Requirements of CAF Employment (FORCE), a new physical employment standard (PES). Data collection throughout development included anthropometric profiles of the CAF. To determine if anthropometric measurements and demographic information would predict the performance outcomes of the FORCE and/or Common Military Task Fitness Evaluation (CMTFE). We conducted a secondary analysis of data from FORCE research. We obtained bioelectrical impedance and segmental analysis. Statistical analysis included correlation and linear regression analyses. Among the 668 study subjects, as predicted, any task requiring lifting, pulling or moving of an object was significantly and positively correlated (r > 0.67) to lean body mass (LBM) measurements. LBM correlated with stretcher carry (r = 0.78) and with lifting actions such as sand bag drag (r = 0.77), vehicle extrication (r = 0.71), sand bag fortification (r = 0.68) and sand bag lift time (r = -0.67). The difference between the correlation of dead mass (DM) with task performance compared with LBM was not statistically significant. DM and LBM can be used in a PES to predict success on military tasks such as casualty evacuation and manual material handling. However, there is no minimum LBM required to perform these tasks successfully. These data direct future research on how we should diversify research participants by anthropometrics, in addition to the traditional demographic variables of gender and age, to highlight potential important adverse impact with PES design. In addition, the results can be used to develop better training regimens to facilitate passing a PES. © All rights reserved. ‘The Influence of Anthropometrics on Physical Employment Standard Performance’ has been reproduced with the permission of DND, 2016.

Electrophysiological evidence for preserved primacy of lexical prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, Shruti; Brothers, Trevor A; Traxler, Matthew J; Ferreira, Fernanda; Henderson, John M; Swaab, Tamara Y

2018-05-28

Young adults show consistent neural benefits of predictable contexts when processing upcoming words, but these benefits are less clear-cut in older adults. Here we disentangle the neural correlates of prediction accuracy and contextual support during word processing, in order to test current theories that suggest that neural mechanisms underlying predictive processing are specifically impaired in older adults. During a sentence comprehension task, older and younger readers were asked to predict passage-final words and report the accuracy of these predictions. Age-related reductions were observed for N250 and N400 effects of prediction accuracy, as well as for N400 effects of contextual support independent of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, temporal primacy of predictive processing (i.e., earlier facilitation for successful predictions) was preserved across the lifespan, suggesting that predictive mechanisms are unlikely to be uniquely impaired in older adults. In addition, older adults showed prediction effects on frontal post-N400 positivities (PNPs) that were similar in amplitude to PNPs in young adults. Previous research has shown correlations between verbal fluency and lexical prediction in older adult readers, suggesting that the production system may be linked to capacity for lexical prediction, especially in aging. The current study suggests that verbal fluency modulates PNP effects of contextual support, but not prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings suggest that aging does not result in specific declines in lexical prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A face only an investor could love: CEOs' facial structure predicts their firms' financial performance.

PubMed

Wong, Elaine M; Ormiston, Margaret E; Haselhuhn, Michael P

2011-12-01

Researchers have theorized that innate personal traits are related to leadership success. Although links between psychological characteristics and leadership success have been well established, research has yet to identify any objective physical traits of leaders that predict organizational performance. In the research reported here, we identified leaders' facial structure as a specific physical trait that correlates with organizational performance. Specifically, we found that firms whose male CEOs have wider faces (relative to facial height) achieve superior financial performance. Decision-making dynamics within a firm's leadership team moderate this effect, such that the relationship between a given CEO's facial measurements and his firm's financial performance is stronger in firms with cognitively simple leadership teams.

Laying the Groundwork for NCLEX Success: An Exploration of Adaptive Quizzing as an Examination Preparation Method.

PubMed

Cox-Davenport, Rebecca A; Phelan, Julia C

2015-05-01

First-time NCLEX-RN pass rates are an important indicator of nursing school success and quality. Nursing schools use different methods to anticipate NCLEX outcomes and help prevent student failure and possible threat to accreditation. This study evaluated the impact of a shift in NCLEX preparation policy at a BSN program in the southeast United States. The policy shifted from the use of predictor score thresholds to determine graduation eligibility to a more proactive remediation strategy involving adaptive quizzing. A descriptive correlational design evaluated the impact of an adaptive quizzing system designed to give students ongoing active practice and feedback and explored the relationship between predictor examinations and NCLEX success. Data from student usage of the system as well as scores on predictor tests were collected for three student cohorts. Results revealed a positive correlation between adaptive quizzing system usage and content mastery. Two of the 69 students in the sample did not pass the NCLEX. With so few students failing the NCLEX, predictability of any course variables could not be determined. The power of predictor examinations to predict NCLEX failure could also not be supported. The most consistent factor among students, however, was their content mastery level within the adaptive quizzing system. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Using psychological constructs from the MUSIC Model of Motivation to predict students' science identification and career goals: results from the U.S. and Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Brett D.; Sahbaz, Sumeyra; Schram, Asta B.; Chittum, Jessica R.

2017-05-01

We investigated students' perceptions related to psychological constructs in their science classes and the influence of these perceptions on their science identification and science career goals. Participants included 575 middle school students from two countries (334 students in the U.S. and 241 students in Iceland). Students completed a self-report questionnaire that included items from several measures. We conducted correlational analyses, confirmatory factor analyses, and structural equation modelling to test our hypotheses. Students' class perceptions (i.e. empowerment, usefulness, success, interest, and caring) were significantly correlated with their science identification, which was correlated positively with their science career goals. Combining students' science class perceptions, science identification, and career goals into one model, we documented that the U.S. and Icelandic samples fit the data reasonably well. However, not all of the hypothesised paths were statistically significant. For example, only students' perceptions of usefulness (for the U.S. and Icelandic students) and success (for the U.S. students only) significantly predicted students' career goals in the full model. Theoretically, our findings are consistent with results from samples of university engineering students, yet different in some ways. Our results provide evidence for the theoretical relationships between students' perceptions of science classes and their career goals.

Preschoolers' Theory-of-Mind Knowledge Influences Whom They Trust about Others' Theories of Mind

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Reet, Jennifer; Green, Kathryn F.; Sobel, David M.

2015-01-01

Two experiments examined whether particular aspects of social-cognitive knowledge predicted how preschoolers would treat informants who displayed a more or less developed understanding of that knowledge. In Experiment 1, children's own success on false-belief measures correlated with the extent to which they endorsed information generated by a…

Meta-Analysis of Predictors of Dental School Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeCastro, Jeanette E.

2012-01-01

Accurate prediction of which candidates show the most promise of success in dental school is imperative for the candidates, the profession, and the public. Several studies suggested that predental GPAs and the Dental Admissions Test (DAT) produce a range of correlations with dental school performance measures. While there have been similarities,…

An Evaluation of Oral Language: The Relationship between Listening, Speaking and Self-Efficacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demir, Sezgin

2017-01-01

Listening and speaking skills are fundamental determinants of an individual's academic success. The aim of this research is to establish the relationship between listening and speaking skills, and study how listening predicts and cognitively arranges speaking. The research was carried out using the quantitative pattern in correlational type. The…

Resilience Does Not Predict Academic Performance in Gross Anatomy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elizondo-Omana, Rodrigo Enrique; Garcia-Rodriguez, Maria de los Angeles; Hinojosa-Amaya, Jose Miguel; Villarreal-Silva, Eliud Enrique; Avilan, Rosa Ivette Guzman; Cruz, Juan Jose Bazaldua; Guzman-Lopez, Santos

2010-01-01

Few studies have evaluated resilience in an academic environment as it relates to academic success or failure. This work sought to assess resilience in regular and remedial students of gross anatomy during the first and second semesters of medical school and to correlate this personal trait with academic performance. Two groups of students were…

Unrealistic Optimism in the Pursuit of Academic Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewine, Rich; Sommers, Alison A.

2016-01-01

Although the ability to evaluate one's own knowledge and performance is critical to learning, the correlation between students' self-evaluation and actual performance measures is modest at best. In this study we examine the effect of offering extra credit for students' accurate prediction (self-accuracy) of their performance on four exams in two…

Viability of using seismic data to predict hydrogeological parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mela, K.

1997-10-01

Design of modem contaminant mitigation and fluid extraction projects make use of solutions from stochastic hydrogeologic models. These models rely heavily on the hydraulic parameters of hydraulic conductivity and the correlation length of hydraulic conductivity. Reliable values of these parameters must be acquired to successfully predict flow of fluids through the aquifer of interest. An inexpensive method of acquiring these parameters by use of seismic reflection surveying would be beneficial. Relationships between seismic velocity and porosity together with empirical observations relating porosity to permeability may lead to a method of extracting the correlation length of hydraulic conductivity from shallow highmore » resolution seismic data making the use of inexpensive high density data sets commonplace for these studies.« less

Assessing Student Preparation through Placement Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFate, Craig; Olmsted, John, III

1999-04-01

The chemistry department at California State University, Fullerton, uses a placement test of its own design to assess student readiness to enroll in General Chemistry. This test contains items designed to test cognitive skills more than factual knowledge. We have analyzed the ability of this test to predict student success (defined as passing the first-semester course with a C or better) using data for 845 students from four consecutive semesters. In common with other placement tests, we find a weak but statistically significant correlation between test performance and course grades. More meaningfully, there is a strong correlation (R2 = 0.82) between test score and course success, sufficient to use for counseling purposes. An item analysis was conducted to determine what types of questions provide the best predictability. Six questions from the full set of 25 were identified as strong predictors, on the basis of discrimination indices and coefficients of determination that were more than one standard deviation above the mean values for test items. These questions had little in common except for requiring multistep mathematical operations and formal reasoning.

Predicting catalyst-support interactions between metal nanoparticles and amorphous silica supports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewing, Christopher S.; Veser, Götz; McCarthy, Joseph J.; Lambrecht, Daniel S.; Johnson, J. Karl

2016-10-01

Metal-support interactions significantly affect the stability and activity of supported catalytic nanoparticles (NPs), yet there is no simple and reliable method for estimating NP-support interactions, especially for amorphous supports. We present an approach for rapid prediction of catalyst-support interactions between Pt NPs and amorphous silica supports for NPs of various sizes and shapes. We use density functional theory calculations of 13 atom Pt clusters on model amorphous silica supports to determine linear correlations relating catalyst properties to NP-support interactions. We show that these correlations can be combined with fast discrete element method simulations to predict adhesion energy and NP net charge for NPs of larger sizes and different shapes. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this approach can be successfully transferred to Pd, Au, Ni, and Fe NPs. This approach can be used to quickly screen stability and net charge transfer and leads to a better fundamental understanding of catalyst-support interactions.

Quantifying confidence in density functional theory predictions of magnetic ground states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houchins, Gregory; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2017-10-01

Density functional theory (DFT) simulations, at the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) level, are being routinely used for material discovery based on high-throughput descriptor-based searches. The success of descriptor-based material design relies on eliminating bad candidates and keeping good candidates for further investigation. While DFT has been widely successfully for the former, oftentimes good candidates are lost due to the uncertainty associated with the DFT-predicted material properties. Uncertainty associated with DFT predictions has gained prominence and has led to the development of exchange correlation functionals that have built-in error estimation capability. In this work, we demonstrate the use of built-in error estimation capabilities within the BEEF-vdW exchange correlation functional for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the magnetic ground state of solids. We demonstrate this approach by calculating the uncertainty estimate for the energy difference between the different magnetic states of solids and compare them against a range of GGA exchange correlation functionals as is done in many first-principles calculations of materials. We show that this estimate reasonably bounds the range of values obtained with the different GGA functionals. The estimate is determined as a postprocessing step and thus provides a computationally robust and systematic approach to estimating uncertainty associated with predictions of magnetic ground states. We define a confidence value (c-value) that incorporates all calculated magnetic states in order to quantify the concurrence of the prediction at the GGA level and argue that predictions of magnetic ground states from GGA level DFT is incomplete without an accompanying c-value. We demonstrate the utility of this method using a case study of Li-ion and Na-ion cathode materials and the c-value metric correctly identifies that GGA-level DFT will have low predictability for NaFePO4F . Further, there needs to be a systematic test of a collection of plausible magnetic states, especially in identifying antiferromagnetic (AFM) ground states. We believe that our approach of estimating uncertainty can be readily incorporated into all high-throughput computational material discovery efforts and this will lead to a dramatic increase in the likelihood of finding good candidate materials.

Low Motivational Incongruence Predicts Successful EEG Resting-state Neurofeedback Performance in Healthy Adults.

PubMed

Diaz Hernandez, Laura; Rieger, Kathryn; Koenig, Thomas

2018-05-15

Neurofeedback is becoming increasingly sophisticated and widespread, although predictors of successful performance still remain scarce. Here, we explored the possible predictive value of psychological factors and report the results obtained from a neurofeedback training study designed to enhance the self-regulation of spontaneous EEG microstates of a particular type (microstate class D). Specifically, we were interested in life satisfaction (including motivational incongruence), body awareness, personality and trait anxiety. These variables were quantified with questionnaires before neurofeedback. Individual neurofeedback success was established by means of linear mixed models that accounted for the amount of observed target state (microstate class D contribution) as a function of time and training condition: baseline, training and transfer (results shown in Diaz Hernandez et al.). We found a series of significant negative correlations between motivational incongruence and mean percentage increase of microstate D during the condition transfer, across-sessions (36% of common variance) and mean percentage increase of microstate D during the condition training, within-session (42% of common variance). There were no significant correlations related to other questionnaires, besides a trend in a sub-scale of the Life Satisfaction questionnaire. We conclude that motivational incongruence may be a potential predictor for neurofeedback success, at least in the current protocol. The finding may be explained by the interfering effect on neurofeedback performance produced by incompatible simultaneously active psychological processes, which are indirectly measured by the Motivational Incongruence questionnaire. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prospective evaluation of a bivalirudin to warfarin transition nomogram.

PubMed

Hohlfelder, Benjamin; Sylvester, Katelyn W; Rimsans, Jessica; DeiCicchi, David; Connors, Jean M

2017-05-01

Bivalirudin may cause a falsely prolonged international normalized ratio (INR) that complicates the discontinuation of bivalirudin when used as a bridge to warfarin. To prospectively validate our novel bivalirudin to warfarin transition nomogram, adult patients who received bivalirudin as a bridge to warfarin between July 2015 and June 2016 were prospectively evaluated, utilizing our predictive nomogram. The major outcome of our analysis was the correlation between the predicted change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation based on the nomogram, and the actual change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation. The major outcome was analyzed using the Pearson's correlation test. A Pearson's correlation coefficient >0.6 was considered to be a strong correlation. Bivalirudin was used as a bridge to warfarin in 29 patients. The majority of patients (86%) included in the analysis had a ventricular assist device. The median initial bivalirudin rate was 0.07 mg/kg/h and the mean increase in INR when starting bivalirudin was 0.6. The mean final weight-based bivalirudin rate was 0.08 mg/kg/h and the mean change in INR after stopping bivalirudin was 0.7. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation and the actual change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation was 0.86 (p < 0.001). After bivalirudin discontinuation, 68% of patients had a therapeutic INR. The results of this prospective analysis successfully validated our novel bivalirudin to warfarin transition nomogram. There was a very strong correlation between the predicted change and actual change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation.

Pregnancy prediction by free sperm DNA and sperm DNA fragmentation in semen specimens of IVF/ICSI-ET patients.

PubMed

Bounartzi, Theofania; Dafopoulos, Konstantinos; Anifandis, George; Messini, Christina I; Koutsonikou, Chrysoula; Kouris, Spyros; Satra, Maria; Sotiriou, Sotirios; Vamvakopoulos, Nicholas; Messinis, Ioannis E

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of free sperm plasma DNA (f-spDNA) and sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF), in semen specimens from men undergoing in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection-embryo transfer (IVF/ICSI-ET) treatments. Fifty-five semen samples were evaluated during 55 consecutive IVF/ICSI-ET cycles. F-spDNA was determined by conventional quantitative real-time PCR-Sybr green detection approach, while evaluation of sperm DNA damage was performed using the sperm chromatin dispersion (SCD) assay. While f-spDNA only correlated with total sperm count, SDF correlated with many semen parameters (including sperm concentration, total sperm count and the per cent of non-progressive sperm). Neither SDF nor the proportion of sperm with small or no halos correlated with f-spDNA. Interestingly, smoking status correlated with f-spDNA but not with SDF. Although these two factors seem to interact for the prediction of pregnancy, receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis revealed that SDF had a stronger predictive value (AUC = 0.7, p < 0.05) than f-spDNA (AUC = 0.6, p > 0.05). SDF and f-spDNA may not be associated together but they interact at a significant level in order to exert their actions on pregnancy outcome. Among the two markers, SDF appears to have stronger and significantly predictive value for pregnancy success.

Predicting protein β-sheet contacts using a maximum entropy-based correlated mutation measure.

PubMed

Burkoff, Nikolas S; Várnai, Csilla; Wild, David L

2013-03-01

The problem of ab initio protein folding is one of the most difficult in modern computational biology. The prediction of residue contacts within a protein provides a more tractable immediate step. Recently introduced maximum entropy-based correlated mutation measures (CMMs), such as direct information, have been successful in predicting residue contacts. However, most correlated mutation studies focus on proteins that have large good-quality multiple sequence alignments (MSA) because the power of correlated mutation analysis falls as the size of the MSA decreases. However, even with small autogenerated MSAs, maximum entropy-based CMMs contain information. To make use of this information, in this article, we focus not on general residue contacts but contacts between residues in β-sheets. The strong constraints and prior knowledge associated with β-contacts are ideally suited for prediction using a method that incorporates an often noisy CMM. Using contrastive divergence, a statistical machine learning technique, we have calculated a maximum entropy-based CMM. We have integrated this measure with a new probabilistic model for β-contact prediction, which is used to predict both residue- and strand-level contacts. Using our model on a standard non-redundant dataset, we significantly outperform a 2D recurrent neural network architecture, achieving a 5% improvement in true positives at the 5% false-positive rate at the residue level. At the strand level, our approach is competitive with the state-of-the-art single methods achieving precision of 61.0% and recall of 55.4%, while not requiring residue solvent accessibility as an input. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/systemsbiology/research/software/

Spatiotemporal patterns of duck nest density and predation risk: a multi-scale analysis of 18 years and more than 10,000 nests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringelman, Kevin M.; Eadie, John M.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Sih, Andrew; Loughman, Daniel L.; Yarris, Gregory S.; Oldenburger, Shaun L.; McLandress, M. Robert

2017-01-01

Many avian species are behaviorally-plastic in selecting nest sites, and may shift to new locations or habitats following an unsuccessful breeding attempt. If there is predictable spatial variation in predation risk, the process of many individuals using prior experience to adaptively change nest sites may scale up to create shifting patterns of nest density at a population level. We used 18 years of waterfowl nesting data to assess whether there were areas of consistently high or low predation risk, and whether low-risk areas increased, and high-risk areas decreased in nest density the following year. We created kernel density maps of successful and unsuccessful nests in consecutive years and found no correlation in predation risk and no evidence for adaptive shifts, although nest density was correlated between years. We also examined between-year correlations in nest density and nest success at three smaller spatial scales: individual nesting fields (10–28 ha), 16-ha grid cells and 4-ha grid cells. Here, results were similar across all scales: we found no evidence for year-to-year correlation in nest success but found strong evidence that nest density was correlated between years, and areas of high nest success increased in nest density the following year. Prior research in this system has demonstrated that areas of high nest density have higher nest success, and taken together, our results suggest that ducks may adaptively select nest sites based on the local density of conspecifics, rather than the physical location of last year's nest. In unpredictable environments, current cues, such as the presence of active conspecific nests, may be especially useful in selecting nest sites. The cues birds use to select breeding locations and successfully avoid predators deserve continued attention, especially in systems of conservation concern.

[Can Psychometric Tests Predict Success in the Selection Interview for Medical School? A Cross-Sectional Study at One German Medical School].

PubMed

Kötter, T; Obst, K U; Brüheim, L; Eisemann, N; Voltmer, E; Katalinic, A

2017-07-01

Background The final exam grade is the main selection criterion for medical school application in Germany. For academic success, it seems to be a reliable predictor. Its use as the only selection criterion is, however, criticised. At some universities, personal interviews are part of the selection process. However, these are very time consuming and are of doubtful validity. The (additional) use of appropriate psychometric instruments could reduce the cost and increase the validity. This study investigates the extent to which psychometric instruments can predict the outcome of a personal selection interview. Methods This is a cross-sectional study on the correlation of the results of psychometric instruments with those of the personal selection interview as part of the application process. As the outcome, the score of the selection interview was used. The NEO - Five Factor Inventory, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the questionnaire to identify work-related behaviour and experience patterns (AVEM) were used as psychometric interviews. Results There was a statistically significant correlation with the results of the personal selection interview for the sum score of the depression scale from the HADS and the sum score for the dimension of life satisfaction of the AVEM. In addition, those participants who did not previously complete an application training achieved a better result in the selection interview. Conclusion The instruments used measure different aspects than the interviews and cannot replace them. It remains to be seen whether the selected parameters are able to predict academic success. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Use the predictive models to explore the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai, China.

PubMed

Zhu, Rong; Wang, Huan; Chen, Jun; Shen, Hong; Deng, Xuwei

2018-01-01

Increasing algae in Lake Erhai has resulted in frequent blooms that have not only led to water ecosystem degeneration but also seriously influenced the quality of the water supply and caused extensive damage to the local people, as the lake is a water resource for Dali City. Exploring the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession and developing predictive models with easily detectable parameters for phytoplankton have been proven to be practical ways to improve water quality. To this end, a systematic survey focused on phytoplankton succession was conducted over 2 years in Lake Erhai. The data from the first study year were used to develop predictive models, and the data from the second year were used for model verification. The seasonal succession of phytoplankton in Lake Erhai was obvious. The dominant groups were Cyanobacteria in the summer, Chlorophyta in the autumn and Bacillariophyta in the winter. The developments and verification of predictive models indicated that compared to phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton density is more effective for estimating phytoplankton variation in Lake Erhai. CCA (canonical correlation analysis) indicated that TN (total nitrogen), TP (total phosphorus), DO (dissolved oxygen), SD (Secchi depth), Cond (conductivity), T (water temperature), and ORP (oxidation reduction potential) had significant influences (p < 0.05) on the phytoplankton community. The CCA of the dominant species found that Microcystis was significantly influenced by T. The dominant Chlorophyta, Psephonema aenigmaticum and Mougeotia, were significantly influenced by TN. All results indicated that TN and T were the two key factors driving phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai.

Achievement orientation and fear of success in Asian American college students.

PubMed

Lew, A S; Allen, R; Papouchis, N; Ritzler, B

1998-01-01

One hundred eighty-five Asian American undergraduates participated in a study designed to examine the relationships among gender, acculturation, achievement orientation, and fear of academic success. Acculturation was modestly correlated with achievement orientation. Endorsement of Asian and Anglo values were significantly related to individual-oriented achievement. Marginal significance, however, was obtained for endorsement of Asian values and beliefs to social-oriented achievement. These findings suggest that persons with a bicultural identity tend to adopt a multifaceted achievement style. Achievement orientation, in turn, predicted fear of academic success, with gender and perceived discrepancies from parental achievement values contributing minimal additional variance. Social-oriented achievement was related to high fear of academic success, whereas an individualistic orientation buffered against such conflicts.

Still under the microscope: can a surgical aptitude test predict otolaryngology resident performance?

PubMed

Moore, Eric J; Price, Daniel L; Van Abel, Kathryn M; Carlson, Matthew L

2015-02-01

Application to otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residency is highly competitive, and the interview process strives to select qualified applicants with a high aptitude for the specialty. Commonly employed criteria for applicant selection have failed to show correlation with proficiency during residency training. We evaluate the correlation between the results of a surgical aptitude test administered to otolaryngology resident applicants and their performance during residency. Retrospective study at an academic otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residency program. Between 2007 and 2013, 224 resident applicants participated in a previously described surgical aptitude test administered at a microvascular surgical station. The composite score and attitudinal scores for 24 consecutive residents who matched at our institution were recorded, and their residency performance was analyzed by faculty survey on a five-point scale. The composite and attitudinal scores were analyzed for correlation with residency performance score by regression analysis. Twenty-four residents were evaluated for overall quality as a clinician by eight faculty members who were blinded to the results of surgical aptitude testing. The results of these surveys showed good inter-rater reliability. Both the overall aptitude test scores and the subset attitudinal score showed reliability in predicting performance during residency training. The goal of the residency selection process is to evaluate the candidate's potential for success in residency and beyond. The results of this study suggest that a simple-to-administer clinical skills test may have predictive value for success in residency and clinician quality. 4. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Building blocks for correlated superconductors and magnets

DOE PAGES

Sarrao, J. L.; Ronning, F.; Bauer, E. D.; ...

2015-04-01

Recent efforts at Los Alamos to discover strongly correlated superconductors and hard ferromagnets are reviewed. While serendipity remains a principal engine of materials discovery, design principles and structural building blocks are beginning to emerge that hold potential for predictive discovery. In addition, successes over the last decade with the so-called “115” strongly correlated superconductors are summarized, and more recent efforts to translate these insights and principles to novel hard magnets are discussed. While true “materials by design” remains a distant aspiration, progress is being made in coupling empirical design principles to electronic structure simulation to accelerate and guide materials designmore » and synthesis.« less

Approaching Gender Equity in Academic Chemistry: Lessons Learned from Successful Female Chemists in the UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller-Friedmann, Jaimie; Childs, Ann; Hillier, Judith

2018-01-01

The internationally acknowledged gender gap in science continues to be an unrelenting concern to science educators; aggregate data in the UK show that both recruitment and retention of women in academic science remain relatively low. Most published research focuses on women in the broad field of science, generates correlations or predictions, or…

Exchangeable lead from prediction models relates to vetiver lead uptake in different soil types.

PubMed

Andra, Syam S; Sarkar, Dibyendu; Saminathan, Sumathi K M; Datta, Rupali

2011-12-01

Prediction models for exchangeable soil lead, published earlier in this journal (Andra et al. 2010a), were developed using a suite of native lead (Pb) paint-contaminated residential soils from two US cities heavily populated with homes constructed prior to Pb ban in paints. In this study, we tested the feasibility and practical applications of these prediction models for developing a phytoremediation design using vetiver grass (Vetiveria zizanioides), a Pb-tolerant plant. The models were used to estimate the exchangeable fraction of Pb available for vetiver uptake in four lead-spiked soil types, both acidic and alkaline, with varying physico-chemical properties and that are different from those used to build the prediction models. Results indicate a strong correlation for predictable exchangeable Pb with the observed fraction and as well with total Pb accumulated by vetiver grass grown in these soils. The correlation coefficient for the predicted vs. observed exchangeable Pb with p < 0.001 was 0.999, 0.996, 0.949, and 0.998 in the Immokalee, Millhopper, Pahokee Muck, and Tobosa soil type, respectively. Similarly, the correlation coefficient for the predicted exchangeable Pb vs. accumulated Pb in vetiver grass with p < 0.001 was 0.948, 0.983, 0.929, and 0.969 for each soil type, respectively. This study suggests that the success of a phytoremediation design could be assessed upfront by predicting the exchangeable Pb fraction in a given soil type based on its properties. This helps in modifying the soil conditions to enhance phytoextraction of Pb from contaminated soils.

Measurements of entanglement over a kilometric distance to test superluminal models of Quantum Mechanics: preliminary results.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocciaro, B.; Faetti, S.; Fronzoni, L.

2017-08-01

As shown in the EPR paper (Einstein, Podolsky e Rosen, 1935), Quantum Mechanics is a non-local Theory. The Bell theorem and the successive experiments ruled out the possibility of explaining quantum correlations using only local hidden variables models. Some authors suggested that quantum correlations could be due to superluminal communications that propagate isotropically with velocity vt > c in a preferred reference frame. For finite values of vt and in some special cases, Quantum Mechanics and superluminal models lead to different predictions. So far, no deviations from the predictions of Quantum Mechanics have been detected and only lower bounds for the superluminal velocities vt have been established. Here we describe a new experiment that increases the maximum detectable superluminal velocities and we give some preliminary results.

Correlation of Predicted and Observed Optical Properties of Multilayer Thermal Control Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, Donald A.

1998-01-01

Thermal control coatings on spacecraft will be increasingly important, as spacecraft grow smaller and more compact. New thermal control coatings will be needed to meet the demanding requirements of next generation spacecraft. Computer programs are now available to design optical coatings and one such program was used to design several thermal control coatings consisting of alternating layers of WO3 and SiO2. The coatings were subsequently manufactured with electron beam evaporation and characterized with both optical and thermal techniques. Optical data were collected in both the visible region of the spectrum and the infrared. Predictions of solar absorptance and infrared emittance were successfully correlated to the observed thermal control properties. Functional performance of the coatings was verified in a bench top thermal vacuum chamber.

Grit: perseverance and passion for long-term goals.

PubMed

Duckworth, Angela L; Peterson, Christopher; Matthews, Michael D; Kelly, Dennis R

2007-06-01

The importance of intellectual talent to achievement in all professional domains is well established, but less is known about other individual differences that predict success. The authors tested the importance of 1 noncognitive trait: grit. Defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals, grit accounted for an average of 4% of the variance in success outcomes, including educational attainment among 2 samples of adults (N=1,545 and N=690), grade point average among Ivy League undergraduates (N=138), retention in 2 classes of United States Military Academy, West Point, cadets (N=1,218 and N=1,308), and ranking in the National Spelling Bee (N=175). Grit did not relate positively to IQ but was highly correlated with Big Five Conscientiousness. Grit nonetheless demonstrated incremental predictive validity of success measures over and beyond IQ and conscientiousness. Collectively, these findings suggest that the achievement of difficult goals entails not only talent but also the sustained and focused application of talent over time. (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

Predictors of the patency of self-expandable metallic stents in malignant gastroduodenal obstruction.

PubMed

Kim, Seung Han; Chun, Hoon Jai; Yoo, In Kyung; Lee, Jae Min; Nam, Seung Joo; Choi, Hyuk Soon; Kim, Eun Sun; Keum, Bora; Seo, Yeon Seok; Jeen, Yoon Tae; Lee, Hong Sik; Um, Soon Ho; Kim, Chang Duck

2015-08-14

To investigate the predictive factors of self-expandable metallic stent patency after stent placement in patients with inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction. A total of 116 patients underwent stent placements for inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction at a tertiary academic center. Clinical success was defined as acceptable decompression of the obstructive lesion within the malignant gastroduodenal neoplasm. We evaluated patient comorbidities and clinical statuses using the World Health Organization's scoring system and categorized patient responses to chemotherapy using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria. We analyzed the relationships between possible predictive factors and stent patency. Self-expandable metallic stent placement was technically successful in all patients (100%), and the clinical success rate was 84.2%. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels were correlated with a reduction in stent patency [P = 0.006; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.92, 95%CI: 1.36-6.25]. Palliative chemotherapy was statistically associated with an increase in stent patency (P = 0.009; aHR = 0.27, 95%CI: 0.10-0.72). CEA levels can easily be measured at the time of stent placement and may help clinicians to predict stent patency and determine the appropriate stent procedure.

Analysis of Phoenix Anomalies and IV and V Findings Applied to the GRAIL Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, Steve

2012-01-01

Analysis of patterns in IV&V findings and their correlation with post-launch anomalies allowed GRAIL to make more efficient use of IV&V services . Fewer issues. . Higher fix rate. . Better communication. . Increased volume of potential issues vetted, at lower cost. . Hard to make predictions of post-launch performance based on IV&V findings . Phoenix made sound fix/use as-is decisions . Things that were fixed eliminated some problems, but hard to quantify. . Broad predictive success in one area, but inverse relationship in others.

Designing an artificial neural network using radial basis function to model exergetic efficiency of nanofluids in mini double pipe heat exchanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghasemi, Nahid; Aghayari, Reza; Maddah, Heydar

2018-06-01

The present study aims at predicting and optimizing exergetic efficiency of TiO2-Al2O3/water nanofluid at different Reynolds numbers, volume fractions and twisted ratios using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and experimental data. Central Composite Design (CCD) and cascade Radial Basis Function (RBF) were used to display the significant levels of the analyzed factors on the exergetic efficiency. The size of TiO2-Al2O3/water nanocomposite was 20-70 nm. The parameters of ANN model were adapted by a training algorithm of radial basis function (RBF) with a wide range of experimental data set. Total mean square error and correlation coefficient were used to evaluate the results which the best result was obtained from double layer perceptron neural network with 30 neurons in which total Mean Square Error(MSE) and correlation coefficient (R2) were equal to 0.002 and 0.999, respectively. This indicated successful prediction of the network. Moreover, the proposed equation for predicting exergetic efficiency was extremely successful. According to the optimal curves, the optimum designing parameters of double pipe heat exchanger with inner twisted tape and nanofluid under the constrains of exergetic efficiency 0.937 are found to be Reynolds number 2500, twisted ratio 2.5 and volume fraction( v/v%) 0.05.

The genetic basis of traits regulating sperm competition and polyandry: can selection favour the evolution of good- and sexy-sperm?

PubMed

Evans, Jonathan P; Simmons, Leigh W

2008-09-01

The good-sperm and sexy-sperm (GS-SS) hypotheses predict that female multiple mating (polyandry) can fuel sexual selection for heritable male traits that promote success in sperm competition. A major prediction generated by these models, therefore, is that polyandry will benefit females indirectly via their sons' enhanced fertilization success. Furthermore, like classic 'good genes' and 'sexy son' models for the evolution of female preferences, GS-SS processes predict a genetic correlation between genes for female mating frequency (analogous to the female preference) and those for traits influencing fertilization success (the sexually selected traits). We examine the premise for these predictions by exploring the genetic basis of traits thought to influence fertilization success and female mating frequency. We also highlight recent debates that stress the possible genetic constraints to evolution of traits influencing fertilization success via GS-SS processes, including sex-linked inheritance, nonadditive effects, interacting parental genotypes, and trade-offs between integrated ejaculate components. Despite these possible constraints, the available data suggest that male traits involved in sperm competition typically exhibit substantial additive genetic variance and rapid evolutionary responses to selection. Nevertheless, the limited data on the genetic variation in female mating frequency implicate strong genetic maternal effects, including X-linkage, which is inconsistent with GS-SS processes. Although the relative paucity of studies on the genetic basis of polyandry does not allow us to draw firm conclusions about the evolutionary origins of this trait, the emerging pattern of sex linkage in genes for polyandry is more consistent with an evolutionary history of antagonistic selection over mating frequency. We advocate further development of GS-SS theory to take account of the complex evolutionary dynamics imposed by sexual conflict over mating frequency.

Simple, validated vaginal birth after cesarean delivery prediction model for use at the time of admission.

PubMed

Metz, Torri D; Stoddard, Gregory J; Henry, Erick; Jackson, Marc; Holmgren, Calla; Esplin, Sean

2013-09-01

To create a simple tool for predicting the likelihood of successful trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) during the pregnancy after a primary cesarean delivery using variables available at the time of admission. Data for all deliveries at 14 regional hospitals over an 8-year period were reviewed. Women with one cesarean delivery and one subsequent delivery were included. Variables associated with successful VBAC were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Points were assigned to these characteristics, with weighting based on the coefficients in the regression model to calculate an integer VBAC score. The VBAC score was correlated with TOLAC success rate and was externally validated in an independent cohort using a logistic regression model. A total of 5,445 women met inclusion criteria. Of those women, 1,170 (21.5%) underwent TOLAC. Of the women who underwent trial of labor, 938 (80%) had a successful VBAC. A VBAC score was generated based on the Bishop score (cervical examination) at the time of admission, with points added for history of vaginal birth, age younger than 35 years, absence of recurrent indication, and body mass index less than 30. Women with a VBAC score less than 10 had a likelihood of TOLAC success less than 50%. Women with a VBAC score more than 16 had a TOLAC success rate more than 85%. The model performed well in an independent cohort with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.84). Prediction of TOLAC success at the time of admission is highly dependent on the initial cervical examination. This simple VBAC score can be utilized when counseling women considering TOLAC. II.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

Simple, empirical approach to predict neutron capture cross sections from nuclear masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couture, A.; Casten, R. F.; Cakirli, R. B.

2017-12-01

Background: Neutron capture cross sections are essential to understanding the astrophysical s and r processes, the modeling of nuclear reactor design and performance, and for a wide variety of nuclear forensics applications. Often, cross sections are needed for nuclei where experimental measurements are difficult. Enormous effort, over many decades, has gone into attempting to develop sophisticated statistical reaction models to predict these cross sections. Such work has met with some success but is often unable to reproduce measured cross sections to better than 40 % , and has limited predictive power, with predictions from different models rapidly differing by an order of magnitude a few nucleons from the last measurement. Purpose: To develop a new approach to predicting neutron capture cross sections over broad ranges of nuclei that accounts for their values where known and which has reliable predictive power with small uncertainties for many nuclei where they are unknown. Methods: Experimental neutron capture cross sections were compared to empirical mass observables in regions of similar structure. Results: We present an extremely simple method, based solely on empirical mass observables, that correlates neutron capture cross sections in the critical energy range from a few keV to a couple hundred keV. We show that regional cross sections are compactly correlated in medium and heavy mass nuclei with the two-neutron separation energy. These correlations are easily amenable to predict unknown cross sections, often converting the usual extrapolations to more reliable interpolations. It almost always reproduces existing data to within 25 % and estimated uncertainties are below about 40 % up to 10 nucleons beyond known data. Conclusions: Neutron capture cross sections display a surprisingly strong connection to the two-neutron separation energy, a nuclear structure property. The simple, empirical correlations uncovered provide model-independent predictions of neutron capture cross sections, extending far from stability, including for nuclei of the highest sensitivity to r -process nucleosynthesis.

When Language Experience Fails to Explain Word Reading Development: Early Cognitive and Linguistic Profiles of Young Foreign Language Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hu, Chieh-Fang; Schuele, C. Melanie

2015-01-01

Although language experience is a key factor in successful foreign language (FL) learning, many FL learners fail to achieve performance levels that were predicted on the basis of their FL experience. This retrospective study investigated early cognitive and linguistic correlates of learning English as a foreign language (FL) in a group of…

Educational Objectives and Academic Performance in Higher Education. Volume 1. Prediction of Academic Performance. Volume 2. Aims and Objectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Entwistle, Noel J.; And Others

1977-01-01

Volume 1 discusses a large-scale follow-up study of the correlates of academic success in 2,595 college students. Volume 2 presents a philosophical and historical approach to studying educational objectives. (Available in microfiche from: Carfax Publishing Company, Haddon House, Dorchester-on-Thames, Oxford 0X9 8JZ, England.) (CP)

Why Do Preschool Language Abilities Correlate with Later Reading? A Twin Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harlaar, Nicole; Hayiou-Thomas, Marianna E.; Dale, Philip S.; Plomin, Robert

2008-01-01

Purpose: Language acquisition is predictive of successful reading development, but the nature of this link is poorly understood. Method: A sample of 7,179 twin pairs was assessed on parent-report measures of syntax and vocabulary at ages 2, 3, and 4 years and on teacher assessments of reading achievement (RA) at ages 7, 9, and 10 years. These…

A Comparison of AH6 AG Scores and GCE Examinations Taken after an Interval of One Year

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heim, A. W.; And Others

1972-01-01

GCE O-and A-level examinations were correlated with the AH6 AG test scores obtained a year earlier. Results suggest that the predictive value of AH6 for success in individual subjects is almost as high as when the examinations and testing were taken within a few weeks of each other. (Authors/CB)

The role of mind-wandering in measurements of general aptitude.

PubMed

Mrazek, Michael D; Smallwood, Jonathan; Franklin, Michael S; Chin, Jason M; Baird, Benjamin; Schooler, Jonathan W

2012-11-01

Tests of working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (gF) are thought to capture variability in a crucial cognitive capacity that is broadly predictive of success, yet pinpointing the exact nature of this capacity is an area of ongoing controversy. We propose that mind-wandering is associated with performance on tests of WMC and gF, thereby partially explaining both the reliable correlations between these tests and their broad predictive utility. Existing evidence indicates that both WMC and gF are correlated with performance on tasks of attention, yet more decisive evidence requires an assessment of the role of attention and, in particular, mind-wandering during performance of these tests. Four studies employing complementary methodological designs embedded thought sampling into tests of general aptitude and determined that mind-wandering was consistently associated with worse performance on these measures. Collectively, these studies implicate the capacity to avoid mind-wandering during demanding tasks as a potentially important source of success on measures of general aptitude, while also raising important questions about whether the previously documented relationship between WMC and mind-wandering can be exclusively attributed to executive failures preceding mind-wandering (McVay & Kane, 2010b). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLaughlin, E.; Gupta, S.

This project mainly involves a molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo study of the effect of molecular shape on thermophysical properties of bulk fluids with an emphasis on the aromatic hydrocarbon liquids. In this regard we have studied the modeling, simulation methodologies, and predictive and correlating methods for thermodynamic properties of fluids of nonspherical molecules. In connection with modeling we have studied the use of anisotropic site-site potentials, through a modification of the Gay-Berne Gaussian overlap potential, to successfully model the aromatic rings after adding the necessary electrostatic moments. We have also shown these interaction sites should be located at themore » geometric centers of the chemical groups. In connection with predictive methods, we have shown two perturbation type theories to work well for fluids modeled using one-center anisotropic potentials and the possibility exists for extending these to anisotropic site-site models. In connection with correlation methods, we have studied, through simulations, the effect of molecular shape on the attraction term in the generalized van der Waals equation of state for fluids of nonspherical molecules and proposed a possible form which is to be studied further. We have successfully studied the vector and parallel processing aspects of molecular simulations for fluids of nonspherical molecules.« less

Predicting length of children's psychiatric hospitalizations: an "ecologic" approach.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Songer, D A; Baker, D G

1991-08-01

This article describes the development and validation of a simple and modestly successful model for predicting inpatient length of stay (LOS) at a state-funded facility providing acute to long term care for children and adolescents in Ohio. Six variables--diagnostic group, legal status at time of admission, attending physician, age, sex, and county of residence--explained 30% of the variation in log10LOS in the subgroup used to create the model, and 26% of log10LOS variation in the cross-validation subgroup. The model also identified LOS outliers with moderate accuracy (ROC area = .68-0.76). The authors attribute the model's success to inclusion of variables that are correlated to idiosyncratic "ecologic" factors as well as variables related to severity of illness. Future attempts to construct LOS models may adopt similar approaches.

Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Cued Retrieval of Items and Contexts

PubMed Central

Hannula, Deborah E.; Libby, Laura A.; Yonelinas, Andrew P.; Ranganath, Charan

2013-01-01

Several models have proposed that different regions of the medial temporal lobes contribute to different aspects of episodic memory. For instance, according to one view, the perirhinal cortex represents specific items, parahippocampal cortex represents information regarding the context in which these items were encountered, and the hippocampus represents item-context bindings. Here, we used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test a specific prediction of this model – namely, that successful retrieval of items from context cues will elicit perirhinal recruitment and that successful retrieval of contexts from item cues will elicit parahippocampal cortex recruitment. Retrieval of the bound representation in either case was expected to elicit hippocampal engagement. To test these predictions, we had participants study several item-context pairs (i.e., pictures of objects and scenes, respectively), and then had them attempt to recall items from associated context cues and contexts from associated item cues during a scanned retrieval session. Results based on both univariate and multivariate analyses confirmed a role for hippocampus in content-general relational memory retrieval, and a role for parahippocampal cortex in successful retrieval of contexts from item cues. However, we also found that activity differences in perirhinal cortex were correlated with successful cued recall for both items and contexts. These findings provide partial support for the above predictions and are discussed with respect to several models of medial temporal lobe function. PMID:23466350

Psychometric properties of the "sport satisfaction instrument (SSI)" in female athletes: predictive model of sport commitment.

PubMed

Granero-Gallegos, A; Baena-Extremera, A; Gómez-López, M; Abraldes, J A

2014-08-01

The objective of this research was to assess the psychometric properties of the Sport Satisfaction Instrument (SSI) in a Spanish sample of female athletes in team sports federations, to decide whether it constitutes a valid and reliable instrument to be used in the context of female competitive sport in future research. The SSI was administered to a total of 615 athletes from 12 to 38 yr. of age. Confirmatory procedures and psychometric analysis supported the hypothesized theoretical model of two factors (Satisfaction/fun and Boredom). For female athletes, the 7-item model showed better goodness-of-fit indexes upon eliminating Item 2 from the Boredom subscale. Concurrent validity was explored through the correlations with the Perception of Success Questionnaire and Sport Commitment, obtaining positive correlations between Satisfaction/fun and Task Orientation and Sport Commitment, whereas Boredom correlated positively but less closely with Ego Orientation. The importance of Satisfaction/fun in the prediction of Sport Commitment, starting from task orientation, is emphasized.

Relationships between Community Level Functional Traits of Trees and Seedlings during Secondary Succession in a Tropical Lowland Rainforest.

PubMed

Lu, XingHui; Zang, RunGuo; Huang, JiHong

2015-01-01

Most of the previous studies on functional traits focus exclusively on either seedlings or trees. Little knowledge exists on the relationships between community level functional traits of trees and seedlings during succession. Here, we examine variations of the community-level functional traits for trees and seedlings and their correlations along a secondary successional and environmental gradient in a tropical lowland rainforest after shifting cultivation. The results showed that the dynamic patterns in community level functional traits of seedlings were generally consistent with those of the trees during secondary succession. Compared with seedlings, community level traits for trees were less affected by abiotic factors during secondary succession. Correlations between community level functional traits of trees and seedlings were significant for: leaf dry matter content and leaf nitrogen concentration in the 18-year-old fallow; leaf chlorophyll content in the 30-year-old fallow; specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content and leaf nitrogen concentration in the 60-year-old fallow; and leaf nitrogen concentration in old growth. However, these traits except specific leaf area for the tree and seedling communities were all significantly correlated if all the successional stages were combined. Our results suggest that the correlations between community level functional traits of trees and those of seedlings depend on the actual traits and the successional stages examined. However, if all the four successional stages are combined, then four out of five of the community level functional traits for trees could be well predicted by those of the seedlings in the tropical lowland rain forest.

Relationships between Community Level Functional Traits of Trees and Seedlings during Secondary Succession in a Tropical Lowland Rainforest

PubMed Central

Lu, XingHui; Zang, RunGuo; Huang, JiHong

2015-01-01

Most of the previous studies on functional traits focus exclusively on either seedlings or trees. Little knowledge exists on the relationships between community level functional traits of trees and seedlings during succession. Here, we examine variations of the community-level functional traits for trees and seedlings and their correlations along a secondary successional and environmental gradient in a tropical lowland rainforest after shifting cultivation. The results showed that the dynamic patterns in community level functional traits of seedlings were generally consistent with those of the trees during secondary succession. Compared with seedlings, community level traits for trees were less affected by abiotic factors during secondary succession. Correlations between community level functional traits of trees and seedlings were significant for: leaf dry matter content and leaf nitrogen concentration in the 18-year-old fallow; leaf chlorophyll content in the 30-year-old fallow; specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content and leaf nitrogen concentration in the 60-year-old fallow; and leaf nitrogen concentration in old growth. However, these traits except specific leaf area for the tree and seedling communities were all significantly correlated if all the successional stages were combined. Our results suggest that the correlations between community level functional traits of trees and those of seedlings depend on the actual traits and the successional stages examined. However, if all the four successional stages are combined, then four out of five of the community level functional traits for trees could be well predicted by those of the seedlings in the tropical lowland rain forest. PMID:26172543

Promotion and resignation in employee networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Jia; Zhang, Qian-Ming; Gao, Jian; Zhang, Linyan; Wan, Xue-Song; Yu, Xiao-Jun; Zhou, Tao

2016-02-01

Enterprises have put more and more emphasis on data analysis so as to obtain effective management advices. Managers and researchers are trying to dig out the major factors that lead to employees' promotion and resignation. Most previous analyses are based on questionnaire survey, which usually consists of a small fraction of samples and contains biases caused by psychological defense. In this paper, we successfully collect a data set consisting of all the employees' work-related interactions (action network, AN for short) and online social connections (social network, SN for short) of a company, which inspires us to reveal the correlations between structural features and employees' career development, namely promotion and resignation. Through statistical analysis, we show that the structural features of both AN and SN are correlated and predictive to employees' promotion and resignation, and the AN has higher correlation and predictability. More specifically, the in-degree in AN is the most relevant indicator for promotion, while the k-shell index in AN and in-degree in SN are both very predictive to resignation. Our results provide a novel and actionable understanding of enterprise management and suggest that to enhance the interplays among employees, no matter work-related or social interplays, can be helpful to reduce staffs' turnover risk.

Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri

Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (ΔSCF) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The ΔSCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle ΔSCF approach can bemore » rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.« less

Analysis of Neuronal Spike Trains, Deconstructed

PubMed Central

Aljadeff, Johnatan; Lansdell, Benjamin J.; Fairhall, Adrienne L.; Kleinfeld, David

2016-01-01

As information flows through the brain, neuronal firing progresses from encoding the world as sensed by the animal to driving the motor output of subsequent behavior. One of the more tractable goals of quantitative neuroscience is to develop predictive models that relate the sensory or motor streams with neuronal firing. Here we review and contrast analytical tools used to accomplish this task. We focus on classes of models in which the external variable is compared with one or more feature vectors to extract a low-dimensional representation, the history of spiking and other variables are potentially incorporated, and these factors are nonlinearly transformed to predict the occurrences of spikes. We illustrate these techniques in application to datasets of different degrees of complexity. In particular, we address the fitting of models in the presence of strong correlations in the external variable, as occurs in natural sensory stimuli and in movement. Spectral correlation between predicted and measured spike trains is introduced to contrast the relative success of different methods. PMID:27477016

Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory

DOE PAGES

Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri; ...

2017-03-03

Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (ΔSCF) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The ΔSCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle ΔSCF approach can bemore » rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.« less

Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory.

PubMed

Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri; Drisdell, Walter S; Shirley, Eric L; Prendergast, David

2017-03-03

Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (ΔSCF) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The ΔSCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle ΔSCF approach can be rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.

Core executive functions are associated with success in young elite soccer players.

PubMed

Vestberg, Torbjörn; Reinebo, Gustaf; Maurex, Liselotte; Ingvar, Martin; Petrovic, Predrag

2017-01-01

Physical capacity and coordination cannot alone predict success in team sports such as soccer. Instead, more focus has been directed towards the importance of cognitive abilities, and it has been suggested that executive functions (EF) are fundamentally important for success in soccer. However, executive functions are going through a steep development from adolescence to adulthood. Moreover, more complex EF involving manipulation of information (higher level EF) develop later than simple executive functions such as those linked to simple working memory capacity (Core EF). The link between EF and success in young soccer players is therefore not obvious. In the present study we investigated whether EF are associated with success in soccer in young elite soccer players. We performed tests measuring core EF (a demanding working memory task involving a variable n-back task; dWM) and higher level EF (Design Fluency test; DF). Color-Word Interference Test and Trail Making Test were performed on an exploratory level as they contain a linguistic element. The lower level EF test (dWM) was taken from CogStateSport computerized concussion testing and the higher level EF test (DF) was from Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System test battery (D-KEFS). In a group of young elite soccer players (n = 30; aged 12-19 years) we show that they perform better than the norm in both the dWM (+0.49 SD) and DF (+0.86 SD). Moreover, we could show that both dWM and DF correlate with the number of goals the players perform during the season. The effect was more prominent for dWM (r = 0.437) than for DF (r = 0.349), but strongest for a combined measurement (r = 0.550). The effect was still present when we controlled for intelligence, length and age in a partial correlation analysis. Thus, our study suggests that both core and higher level EF may predict success in soccer also in young players.

Core executive functions are associated with success in young elite soccer players

PubMed Central

Reinebo, Gustaf; Maurex, Liselotte; Ingvar, Martin; Petrovic, Predrag

2017-01-01

Physical capacity and coordination cannot alone predict success in team sports such as soccer. Instead, more focus has been directed towards the importance of cognitive abilities, and it has been suggested that executive functions (EF) are fundamentally important for success in soccer. However, executive functions are going through a steep development from adolescence to adulthood. Moreover, more complex EF involving manipulation of information (higher level EF) develop later than simple executive functions such as those linked to simple working memory capacity (Core EF). The link between EF and success in young soccer players is therefore not obvious. In the present study we investigated whether EF are associated with success in soccer in young elite soccer players. We performed tests measuring core EF (a demanding working memory task involving a variable n-back task; dWM) and higher level EF (Design Fluency test; DF). Color-Word Interference Test and Trail Making Test were performed on an exploratory level as they contain a linguistic element. The lower level EF test (dWM) was taken from CogStateSport computerized concussion testing and the higher level EF test (DF) was from Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System test battery (D-KEFS). In a group of young elite soccer players (n = 30; aged 12–19 years) we show that they perform better than the norm in both the dWM (+0.49 SD) and DF (+0.86 SD). Moreover, we could show that both dWM and DF correlate with the number of goals the players perform during the season. The effect was more prominent for dWM (r = 0.437) than for DF (r = 0.349), but strongest for a combined measurement (r = 0.550). The effect was still present when we controlled for intelligence, length and age in a partial correlation analysis. Thus, our study suggests that both core and higher level EF may predict success in soccer also in young players. PMID:28178738

Animal models for microbicide safety and efficacy testing.

PubMed

Veazey, Ronald S

2013-07-01

Early studies have cast doubt on the utility of animal models for predicting success or failure of HIV-prevention strategies, but results of multiple human phase 3 microbicide trials, and interrogations into the discrepancies between human and animal model trials, indicate that animal models were, and are, predictive of safety and efficacy of microbicide candidates. Recent studies have shown that topically applied vaginal gels, and oral prophylaxis using single or combination antiretrovirals are indeed effective in preventing sexual HIV transmission in humans, and all of these successes were predicted in animal models. Further, prior discrepancies between animal and human results are finally being deciphered as inadequacies in study design in the model, or quite often, noncompliance in human trials, the latter being increasingly recognized as a major problem in human microbicide trials. Successful microbicide studies in humans have validated results in animal models, and several ongoing studies are further investigating questions of tissue distribution, duration of efficacy, and continued safety with repeated application of these, and other promising microbicide candidates in both murine and nonhuman primate models. Now that we finally have positive correlations with prevention strategies and protection from HIV transmission, we can retrospectively validate animal models for their ability to predict these results, and more importantly, prospectively use these models to select and advance even safer, more effective, and importantly, more durable microbicide candidates into human trials.

Factors Correlated with Success Rate of Outpatient Smoking Cessation Services in Taiwan.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Hsin; Hsu, Hsin-Yin; Chang, Betty Chia-Chen; Chang, Fong-Ching

2018-06-10

Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death. The purpose of this study was to explore the patient’s and physician’s factors that are correlated with smoking cessation success rate. A total of 877 smokers who visited the outpatient smoking cessation services at a medical center in Northern Taiwan were recruited for the study. Phone interviews were carried out six months after the initial visit to evaluate the success rate of smoking cessation. The result showed that the abstinence rate at six-month was 37.7%. By the multivariate logistic regression model, the predictive factors of abstinence were smokers who had a lower Fagerström test for cigarette dependence (FTCD), lower exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) concentration, or who smoked less than 20 cigarettes per day at the first visit. Smokers who had more than one smoking cessation outpatient visit or seen by physicians who, on average, delivered more than one smoking cessation consultations per week also led to a higher success rate. Therefore, we suggest that physicians should put more efforts and encourage follow-up visits for some smokers by knowing their characteristics at the first visit. Furthermore, physicians with more experience in smoking cessation consultation seemed to be more likely to help patients to quit smoking successfully.

Profile and determinants of successful aging in the Ibadan Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Gureje, Oye; Oladeji, Bibilola D; Abiona, Taiwo; Chatterji, Somnath

2014-05-01

To determine the profile and determinants of successful aging in a developing country characterized by low life expectancy and where successful agers may represent a unique group. Community-based cohort study. Eight contiguous states in the Yoruba-speaking region of Nigeria. A multistage clustered sampling of households was used to select a representative sample of individuals (N = 2,149) aged 65 and older at baseline. Nine hundred thirty were successfully followed for an average of 64 months between August 2003 and December 2009. Lifestyle and behavioral factors were assessed at baseline. Successful aging, defined using each of three models (absence of chronic health conditions, functional independence, and satisfaction with life), was assessed at follow-up. Between 16% and 75% of respondents could be classified as successful agers using one of the three models while 7.5% could be so classified using a combination of all the models. Correlations between the three models were small, ranging from 0.08 to 0.15. Different features predicted their outcomes, suggesting that they represent relatively independent trajectories of aging. Whichever model was used, more men than women tended to be classified as aging successfully. Men who aged successfully, using a combination of all the three models, were more likely never to have smoked (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.55-14.46) and to report, at baseline, having contacts with friends (aOR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.0-18.76) or participating in community activities (aOR = 16.0, 95% CI = 1.23-204.40). In women, there was a nonlinear trend for younger age at baseline to predict this outcome. Modifiable social and lifestyle factors predicted successful aging in this population, suggesting that health promotion targeting behavior change may lead to tangible benefits for health and well-being in old age. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Successful Application of Adaptive Emotion Regulation Skills Predicts the Subsequent Reduction of Depressive Symptom Severity but neither the Reduction of Anxiety nor the Reduction of General Distress during the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder

PubMed Central

Wirtz, Carolin M.; Radkovsky, Anna; Ebert, David D.; Berking, Matthias

2014-01-01

Objective Deficits in general emotion regulation (ER) skills have been linked to symptoms of depression and are thus considered a promising target in the treatment of Major depressive disorder (MDD). However, at this point, the extent to which such skills are relevant for coping with depression and whether they should instead be considered a transdiagnostic factor remain unclear. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate whether successful ER skills application is associated with changes in depressive symptom severity (DSS), anxiety symptom severity (ASS), and general distress severity (GDS) over the course of treatment for MDD. Methods Successful ER skills application, DSS, ASS, and GDS were assessed four times during the first three weeks of treatment in 175 inpatients who met the criteria for MDD. We computed Pearson correlations to test whether successful ER skills application and the three indicators of psychopathology are cross-sectionally associated. We then performed latent growth curve modelling to test whether changes in successful ER skills application are negatively associated with a reduction of DSS, ASS, or GDS. Finally, we utilized latent change score models to examine whether successful ER skills application predicts subsequent reduction of DSS, ASS, or GDS. Results Successful ER skills application was cross-sectionally associated with lower levels of DSS, ASS, and GDS at all points of assessment. An increase in successful skills application during treatment was associated with a decrease in DSS and GDS but not ASS. Finally, successful ER skills application predicted changes in subsequent DSS but neither changes in ASS nor changes in GDS. Conclusions Although general ER skills might be relevant for a broad range of psychopathological symptoms, they might be particularly important for the maintenance and treatment of depressive symptoms. PMID:25330159

Resting-State Functional Connectivity Predicts Cognitive Impairment Related to Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Lin, Qi; Rosenberg, Monica D; Yoo, Kwangsun; Hsu, Tiffany W; O'Connell, Thomas P; Chun, Marvin M

2018-01-01

Resting-state functional connectivity (rs-FC) is a promising neuromarker for cognitive decline in aging population, based on its ability to reveal functional differences associated with cognitive impairment across individuals, and because rs-fMRI may be less taxing for participants than task-based fMRI or neuropsychological tests. Here, we employ an approach that uses rs-FC to predict the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (11 items; ADAS11) scores, which measure overall cognitive functioning, in novel individuals. We applied this technique, connectome-based predictive modeling, to a heterogeneous sample of 59 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, including normal aging, mild cognitive impairment, and AD subjects. First, we built linear regression models to predict ADAS11 scores from rs-FC measured with Pearson's r correlation. The positive network model tested with leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) significantly predicted individual differences in cognitive function from rs-FC. In a second analysis, we considered other functional connectivity features, accordance and discordance, which disentangle the correlation and anticorrelation components of activity timecourses between brain areas. Using partial least square regression and LOOCV, we again built models to successfully predict ADAS11 scores in novel individuals. Our study provides promising evidence that rs-FC can reveal cognitive impairment in an aging population, although more development is needed for clinical application.

Suitability of the HAM-Nat test and TMS module "basic medical-scientific understanding" for medical school selection

PubMed Central

Hissbach, Johanna; Feddersen, Lena; Sehner, Susanne; Hampe, Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Aims: Tests with natural-scientific content are predictive of the success in the first semesters of medical studies. Some universities in the German speaking countries use the ‘Test for medical studies’ (TMS) for student selection. One of its test modules, namely “medical and scientific comprehension”, measures the ability for deductive reasoning. In contrast, the Hamburg Assessment Test for Medicine, Natural Sciences (HAM-Nat) evaluates knowledge in natural sciences. In this study the predictive power of the HAM-Nat test will be compared to that of the NatDenk test, which is similar to the TMS module “medical and scientific comprehension” in content and structure. Methods: 162 medical school beginners volunteered to complete either the HAM-Nat (N=77) or the NatDenk test (N=85) in 2007. Until spring 2011, 84.2% of these successfully completed the first part of the medical state examination in Hamburg. Via different logistic regression models we tested the predictive power of high school grade point average (GPA or “Abiturnote”) and the test results (HAM-Nat and NatDenk) with regard to the study success criterion “first part of the medical state examination passed successfully up to the end of the 7th semester” (Success7Sem). The Odds Ratios (OR) for study success are reported. Results: For both test groups a significant correlation existed between test results and study success (HAM-Nat: OR=2.07; NatDenk: OR=2.58). If both admission criteria are estimated in one model, the main effects (GPA: OR=2.45; test: OR=2.32) and their interaction effect (OR=1.80) are significant in the HAM-Nat test group, whereas in the NatDenk test group only the test result (OR=2.21) significantly contributes to the variance explained. Conclusions: On their own both HAM-Nat and NatDenk have predictive power for study success, but only the HAM-Nat explains additional variance if combined with GPA. The selection according to HAM-Nat and GPA has under the current circumstances of medical school selection (many good applicants and only a limited number of available spaces) the highest predictive power of all models. PMID:23255967

Lessons Learned During Instrument Testing for the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peabody, Hume L.; Otero, Veronica; Neuberger, David

2013-01-01

The Themal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) instrument, set to launch on the Landsat Data Continuity Mission in 2013, features a passively cooled telescope and IR detectors which are actively cooled by a two stage cryocooler. In order to proceed to the instrument level test campaign, at least one full functional test was required, necessitating a thermal vacuum test to sufficiently cool the detectors and demonstrate performance. This was fairly unique in that this test occurred before the Pre Environmental Review, but yielded significant knowledge gains before the planned instrument level test. During the pre-PER test, numerous discrepancies were found between the model and the actual hardware, which were revealed by poor correlation between model predictions and test data. With the inclusion of pseudo-balance points, the test also provided an opportunity to perform a pre-correlation to test data prior to the instrument level test campaign. Various lessons were learned during this test related to modeling and design of both the flight hardware and the Ground Support Equipment and test setup. The lessons learned in the pre-PER test resulted in a better test setup for the nstrument level test and the completion of the final instrument model correlation in a shorter period of time. Upon completion of the correlation, the flight predictions were generated including the full suite of off-nominal cases, including some new cases defined by the spacecraft. For some of these ·new cases, some components now revealed limit exceedances, in particular for a portion of the hardware that could not be tested due to its size and chamber limitations.. Further lessons were learned during the completion of flight predictions. With a correlated detalled instrument model, significant efforts were made to generate a reduced model suitable for observatory level analyses. This proved a major effort both to generate an appropriate network as well as to convert to the final model to the required format and yielded additional lessons learned. In spite of all the challenges encountered by TIRS, the instrument was successfully delivered to the spacecraft and will soon be tested at observatory level in preparation for a successful mission launch.

Endometrial immune markers are potential predictors of normal fertility and pregnancy after in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Kofod, Louise; Lindhard, Anette; Bzorek, Michael; Eriksen, Jens Ole; Larsen, Lise Grupe; Hviid, Thomas Vauvert F

2017-09-01

Elucidating immune mechanisms in the endometrium, which lead to the success of implantation and pregnancy, is important in reproductive medicine. Studies of immune cell abundance have shown conflicting results, and the expression and importance of HLA class Ib proteins in pre-implantation endometrium have not yet been investigated. The study population consisted of four subgroups: a hydrosalpinx, a salpingectomy, an unexplained infertility, and a fertile control group. Endometrial samples were collected during the implantation window. Immune markers (CD56 + and CD16 + cells, FoxP3 + Tregs, HLA-G, HLA-F) were quantified in the samples. The outcome of the subsequent IVF treatment was recorded. Increased CD56 + uNK cells and high HLA-G expression served as predictor for successful pregnancy outcome. HLA-F expression was positively correlated with uNK cells, being indirectly predictive for achieving pregnancy. Endometrial uNK cell abundance in the pre-implantation endometrium seems to be important for normal fertility and pregnancy success, and they may be used as clinical markers to predict implantation success in IVF. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the chance of vaginal delivery after one cesarean section: validation and elaboration of a published prediction model.

PubMed

Fagerberg, Marie C; Maršál, Karel; Källén, Karin

2015-05-01

We aimed to validate a widely used US prediction model for vaginal birth after cesarean (Grobman et al. [8]) and modify it to suit Swedish conditions. Women having experienced one cesarean section and at least one subsequent delivery (n=49,472) in the Swedish Medical Birth Registry 1992-2011 were randomly divided into two data sets. In the development data set, variables associated with successful trial of labor were identified using multiple logistic regression. The predictive ability of the estimates previously published by Grobman et al., and of our modified and new estimates, respectively, was then evaluated using the validation data set. The accuracy of the models for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. For maternal age, body mass index, prior vaginal delivery, and prior labor arrest, the odds ratio estimates for vaginal birth after cesarean were similar to those previously published. The prediction accuracy increased when information on indication for the previous cesarean section was added (from area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.69-0.71), and increased further when maternal height and delivery unit cesarean section rates were included (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.74). The correlation between the individual predicted vaginal birth after cesarean probability and the observed trial of labor success rate was high in all the respective predicted probability decentiles. Customization of prediction models for vaginal birth after cesarean is of considerable value. Choosing relevant indicators for a Swedish setting made it possible to achieve excellent prediction accuracy for success in trial of labor after cesarean. During the delicate process of counseling about preferred delivery mode after one cesarean section, considering the results of our study may facilitate the choice between a trial of labor or an elective repeat cesarean section. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis/forecast experiments with a flow-dependent correlation function using FGGE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Bloom, S. C.; Carus, H.; Nestler, M. S.

1986-01-01

The use of a flow-dependent correlation function to improve the accuracy of an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme is examined. The development of the correlation function for the OI analysis scheme used for numerical weather prediction is described. The scheme uses a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans to model the pressure-wind error cross-correlation and it has the ability to use an error correlation function that is flow- and geographically-dependent. A series of four-day data assimilation experiments, conducted from January 5-9, 1979, were used to investigate the effect of the different features of the OI scheme (error correlation) on forecast skill for the barotropic lows and highs. The skill of the OI was compared with that of a successive correlation method (SCM) of analysis. It is observed that the largest difference in the correlation statistics occurred in barotropic and baroclinic lows and highs. The comparison reveals that the OI forecasts were more accurate than the SCM forecasts.

Correlated evolution between male ejaculate allocation and female remating behaviour in seed beetles (Bruchidae).

PubMed

Katvala, M; Rönn, J L; Arnqvist, G

2008-03-01

Sperm competition theory suggests that female remating rate determines the selective regime that dictates the evolution of male ejaculate allocation. To test for correlated evolution between female remating behaviour and male ejaculate traits, we subjected detailed experimental data on female and male reproductive traits in seven-seed beetle species to phylogenetic comparative analyses. The evolution of a larger first ejaculate was positively correlated with the evolution of a more rapid decline in ejaculate size over successive matings. Further, as predicted by theory, an increase in female remating rate correlated with the evolution of larger male testes but smaller ejaculates. However, an increase in female remating was associated with the evolution of a less even allocation of ejaculate resources over successive matings, contrary to classic sperm competition theory. We failed to find any evidence for coevolution between the pattern of male ejaculate allocation and variation in female quality and we conclude that some patterns of correlated evolution are congruent with current theory, whereas some are not. We suggest that this may reflect the fact that much sperm competition theory does not fully incorporate other factors that may affect the evolution of male and female traits, such as trade-offs between ejaculate expenditure and other competing demands and the evolution of resource acquisition.

Effects of Cerebral Blood Flow and Vessel Conditions on Speech Recognition in Patients With Postlingual Adult Cochlear Implant: Predictable Factors for the Efficacy of Cochlear Implant.

PubMed

Ishino, Takashi; Ragaee, Mahmoud Ali; Maruhashi, Tatsuya; Kajikawa, Masato; Higashi, Yukihito; Sonoyama, Toru; Takeno, Sachio; Hirakawa, Katsuhiro

Cochlear implantation (CI) has been the most successful procedure for restoring hearing in a patient with severe and profound hearing loss. However, possibly owing to the variable brain functions of each patient, its performance and the associated patient satisfaction are widely variable. The authors hypothesize that peripheral and cerebral circulation can be assessed by noninvasive and globally available methods, yielding superior presurgical predictive factors of the performance of CI in adult patients with postlingual hearing loss who are scheduled to undergo CI. Twenty-two adult patients with cochlear implants for postlingual hearing loss were evaluated using Doppler sonography measurement of the cervical arteries (reflecting cerebral blood flow), flow-mediated dilation (FMD; reflecting the condition of cerebral arteries), and their pre-/post-CI best score on a monosyllabic discrimination test (pre-/post-CI best monosyllabic discrimination [BMD] score). Correlations between post-CI BMD score and the other factors were examined using univariate analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. The prediction factors were calculated by examining the receiver-operating characteristic curve between post-CI BMD score and the significantly positively correlated factors. Age and duration of deafness had a moderately negative correlation. The mean velocity of the internal carotid arteries and FMD had a moderate-to-strong positive correlation with the post-CI BMD score in univariate analysis. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis revealed that only FMD was significantly positively correlated with post-CI BMD score. Analysis of the receiver-operating characteristic curve showed that a FMD cutoff score of 1.8 significantly predicted post-CI BMD score. These data suggest that FMD is a convenient, noninvasive, and widely available tool for predicting the efficacy of cochlear implants. An FMD cutoff score of 1.8 could be a good index for determining whether patients will hear well with cochlear implants. It could also be used to predict whether cochlear implants will provide good speech recognition benefits to candidates, even if their speech discrimination is poor. This FMD index could become a useful predictive tool for candidates with poor speech discrimination to determine the efficacy of CI before surgery.

THE SEARCH DYNAMICS OF RECRUITED HONEY BEES, APIS MELLIFERA LIGUSTICA SPINOLA.

PubMed

Friesen, Larry Jon

1973-02-01

Some variables in the recruitment process of honey bees were studied as they affected the distribution and success of the searching population in the field. The dance language and odor dependence hypotheses were contrasted and their predictions compared with the following observations. 1. Recruits were attracted to the odors from the food which were carried by foragers and were dependent on these odors for success. 2. A monitoring of recruit densities in the field demonstrated an association of searchers with the forager flight path. 3. The degree of correspondence between the distribution of recruits and the direction of the flight path to the feeding site was correlated with wind direction, not search efficiency. 4. Feeding stations upwind of the hive provided the highest recruit success rates, shortest search times, and the least dependence on wind speed. Downwind stations provided the lowest recruit success rates, the longest search times, and the greatest dependence on wind speed. 5. A disproportionate increase in recruit success with an increase in the number of foragers visiting a feeding site was correlated with the density of the foragers in the field. 6. Increased bee densities at the feeding site, even with bees from different hives, increased recruit success and shortened search times. 7. The progression of and the extremely long intervals between the onset of recruit arrivals at areas along the forager flight path suggested communication among bees in the field and a dependence of recruit success on the density and growth of the searching population. These observations are compatible with an odor dependent search behavior and together fail to support the predictions of the dance language hypothesis. Dance attendants appeared to have been conditioned to the odors associated with returning foragers and, after leaving the hive, entered a searching population dependent on these odors for success. The dependence of recruit success on food odor at the feeding station, the density of foragers between this station and the hive, and the direction of the wind indicates that the integrity of the forager flight path was extremely important to this success. The distributions and extended search times of recruits indicated a search behavior based on positive anemotaxis during the perception of the proper combination of odors and negative anemotaxis after the loss of this stimulation.

Semen cryopreservation in pubertal boys before gonadotoxic treatment and the role of endocrinologic evaluation in predicting sperm yield.

PubMed

van Casteren, Niels J; Dohle, Gert R; Romijn, Johanens C; de Muinck Keizer-Schrama, Sabine M P F; Weber, Robertus F A; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M

2008-10-01

To evaluate the feasibility of semen cryopreservation in pubertal boys before they receive gonadotoxic therapy and to identify which pretreatment parameters might predict successful cryopreservation. Retrospective data analysis. Tertiary fertility center, academic children's hospital. Between 1995 and 2005, 80 boys (median age 16.6 years, range 13.7-18.9 years) consulted the outpatient clinic of andrology for semen cryopreservation before a potentially gonadotoxic treatment. We assessed the pretreatment semen parameters, hormone levels, and patients' characteristics. Measurement of the number of adolescents able to cryopreserve semen. Thirteen boys were unable to produce semen by masturbation. In 53 boys semen quality was adequate for cryopreservation. In 14 patients semen analysis did not show motile spermatozoa, and therefore semen cryopreservation could not be performed. Although inhibin B showed a strong correlation with sperm count, no significant difference was found in serum T, inhibin B, LH, and FSH levels in the patients with or without successful sperm yield. Moreover, median age was not different between patients with and without a successful sperm yield. Semen cryopreservation in boys is a feasible method to preserve spermatozoa before gonadotoxic therapy is started and should be offered to all pubertal boys despite their young age. Serum hormone levels do not predict sperm yield.

Predictors of the patency of self-expandable metallic stents in malignant gastroduodenal obstruction

PubMed Central

Kim, Seung Han; Chun, Hoon Jai; Yoo, In Kyung; Lee, Jae Min; Nam, Seung Joo; Choi, Hyuk Soon; Kim, Eun Sun; Keum, Bora; Seo, Yeon Seok; Jeen, Yoon Tae; Lee, Hong Sik; Um, Soon Ho; Kim, Chang Duck

2015-01-01

AIM: To investigate the predictive factors of self-expandable metallic stent patency after stent placement in patients with inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction. METHODS: A total of 116 patients underwent stent placements for inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction at a tertiary academic center. Clinical success was defined as acceptable decompression of the obstructive lesion within the malignant gastroduodenal neoplasm. We evaluated patient comorbidities and clinical statuses using the World Health Organization’s scoring system and categorized patient responses to chemotherapy using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria. We analyzed the relationships between possible predictive factors and stent patency. RESULTS: Self-expandable metallic stent placement was technically successful in all patients (100%), and the clinical success rate was 84.2%. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels were correlated with a reduction in stent patency [P = 0.006; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.92, 95%CI: 1.36-6.25]. Palliative chemotherapy was statistically associated with an increase in stent patency (P = 0.009; aHR = 0.27, 95%CI: 0.10-0.72). CONCLUSION: CEA levels can easily be measured at the time of stent placement and may help clinicians to predict stent patency and determine the appropriate stent procedure. PMID:26290640

Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

A New Look at the Impact of Maximizing on Unhappiness: Two Competing Mediating Effects

PubMed Central

Peng, Jiaxi; Zhang, Jiaxi; Zhang, Yan; Gong, Pinjia; Han, Bing; Sun, Hao; Cao, Fei; Miao, Danmin

2018-01-01

The current study aims to explore how the decision-making style of maximizing affects subjective well-being (SWB), which mainly focuses on the confirmation of the mediator role of regret and suppressing role of achievement motivation. A total of 402 Chinese undergraduate students participated in this study, in which they responded to the maximization, regret, and achievement motivation scales and SWB measures. Results suggested that maximizing significantly predicted SWB. Moreover, regret and achievement motivation (hope for success dimension) could completely mediate and suppress this effect. That is, two competing indirect pathways exist between maximizing and SWB. One pathway is through regret. Maximizing typically leads one to regret, which could negatively predict SWB. Alternatively, maximizing could lead to high levels of hope for success, which were positively correlated with SWB. Findings offered a complex method of thinking about the relationship between maximizing and SWB. PMID:29467694

Distributions of exotic plants in eastern Asia and North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Qian, H.; Ricklefs, R.E.; Xi, W.

2006-01-01

Although some plant traits have been linked to invasion success, the possible effects of regional factors, such as diversity, habitat suitability, and human activity are not well understood. Each of these mechanisms predicts a different pattern of distribution at the regional scale. Thus, where climate and soils are similar, predictions based on regional hypotheses for invasion success can be tested by comparisons of distributions in the source and receiving regions. Here, we analyse the native and alien geographic ranges of all 1567 plant species that have been introduced between eastern Asia and North America or have been introduced to both regions from elsewhere. The results reveal correlations between the spread of exotics and both the native species richness and transportation networks of recipient regions. This suggests that both species interactions and human-aided dispersal influence exotic distributions, although further work on the relative importance of these processes is needed. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Use of data mining to predict significant factors and benefits of bilateral cochlear implantation.

PubMed

Ramos-Miguel, Angel; Perez-Zaballos, Teresa; Perez, Daniel; Falconb, Juan Carlos; Ramosb, Angel

2015-11-01

Data mining (DM) is a technique used to discover pattern and knowledge from a big amount of data. It uses artificial intelligence, automatic learning, statistics, databases, etc. In this study, DM was successfully used as a predictive tool to assess disyllabic speech test performance in bilateral implanted patients with a success rate above 90%. 60 bilateral sequentially implanted adult patients were included in the study. The DM algorithms developed found correlations between unilateral medical records and Audiological test results and bilateral performance by establishing relevant variables based on two DM techniques: the classifier and the estimation. The nearest neighbor algorithm was implemented in the first case, and the linear regression in the second. The results showed that patients with unilateral disyllabic test results below 70% benefited the most from a bilateral implantation. Finally, it was observed that its benefits decrease as the inter-implant time increases.

Asymmetric forceps increase fighting success among males of similar size in the maritime earwig

PubMed Central

Munoz, Nicole E.; Zink, Andrew G.

2012-01-01

Extreme asymmetric morphologies are hypothesized to serve an adaptive function that counteracts sexual selection for symmetry. However direct tests of function for asymmetries are lacking, particularly in the context of animal weapons. The weapon of the maritime earwig, Anisolabis maritima, exhibits sizeable variation in the extent of directional asymmetry within and across body sizes, making it an ideal candidate for investigating the function of asymmetry. In this study, we characterized the extent of weapon asymmetry, characterized the manner in which asymmetric weapons are used in contests, staged dyadic contests between males of different size classes and analyzed the correlates of fighting success. In contests between large males, larger individuals won more fights and emerged as the dominant male. In contests between small males, however, weapon asymmetry was more influential in predicting overall fighting success than body size. This result reveals an advantage of asymmetric weaponry among males that are below the mean size in the population. A forceps manipulation experiment suggests that asymmetry may be an indirect, correlate of a morphologically independent factor that affects fighting ability. PMID:22984320

Modeling of short fiber reinforced injection moulded composite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, A.; Aswini, N.; Dandekar, C. R.; Makhe, S.

2012-09-01

A micromechanics based finite element model (FEM) is developed to facilitate the design of a new production quality fiber reinforced plastic injection molded part. The composite part under study is composed of a polyetheretherketone (PEEK) matrix reinforced with 30% by volume fraction of short carbon fibers. The constitutive material models are obtained by using micromechanics based homogenization theories. The analysis is carried out by successfully coupling two commercial codes, Moldflow and ANSYS. Moldflow software is used to predict the fiber orientation by considering the flow kinetics and molding parameters. Material models are inputted into the commercial software ANSYS as per the predicted fiber orientation and the structural analysis is carried out. Thus in the present approach a coupling between two commercial codes namely Moldflow and ANSYS has been established to enable the analysis of the short fiber reinforced injection moulded composite parts. The load-deflection curve is obtained based on three constitutive material model namely an isotropy, transversely isotropy and orthotropy. Average values of the predicted quantities are compared to experimental results, obtaining a good correlation. In this manner, the coupled Moldflow-ANSYS model successfully predicts the load deflection curve of a composite injection molded part.

Sequential and simultaneous choices: testing the diet selection and sequential choice models.

PubMed

Freidin, Esteban; Aw, Justine; Kacelnik, Alex

2009-03-01

We investigate simultaneous and sequential choices in starlings, using Charnov's Diet Choice Model (DCM) and Shapiro, Siller and Kacelnik's Sequential Choice Model (SCM) to integrate function and mechanism. During a training phase, starlings encountered one food-related option per trial (A, B or R) in random sequence and with equal probability. A and B delivered food rewards after programmed delays (shorter for A), while R ('rejection') moved directly to the next trial without reward. In this phase we measured latencies to respond. In a later, choice, phase, birds encountered the pairs A-B, A-R and B-R, the first implementing a simultaneous choice and the second and third sequential choices. The DCM predicts when R should be chosen to maximize intake rate, and SCM uses latencies of the training phase to predict choices between any pair of options in the choice phase. The predictions of both models coincided, and both successfully predicted the birds' preferences. The DCM does not deal with partial preferences, while the SCM does, and experimental results were strongly correlated to this model's predictions. We believe that the SCM may expose a very general mechanism of animal choice, and that its wider domain of success reflects the greater ecological significance of sequential over simultaneous choices.

Usefulness of elastography in predicting the outcome of Foley catheter labour induction.

PubMed

Wozniak, Slawomir; Czuczwar, Piotr; Szkodziak, Piotr; Paszkowski, Tomasz

2015-06-01

Incorrect selection of women for labour induction may increase the risk of caesarean section and other postpartum and neonatal complications. It has been recently shown that elastography of the uterine cervix holds the potential to predict the outcome of pharmacological labour induction. There are no data on the usefulness of elastography in predicting the outcome of mechanical induction of labour. To assess the usefulness of elastographic cervical assessment in predicting the success of Foley catheter labour induction. This prospective observational study included 39 pregnant women at term with an unfavourable cervix (Bishop score ≤ 6) suitable for Foley catheter labour induction. Before labour induction the following data were recorded: Bishop score, cervical length (measured by ultrasound) and the stiffness of cervical internal os, canal and external os assessed by elastography (elastography index - EI). Statistical relationships between pre-interventional assessment of the cervix and outcome of Foley catheter labour induction (successful induction, time to delivery and route of delivery) were analysed. EI's of internal cervical os and cervical canal were significantly lower (softer) in women with successful labour induction and vaginal delivery, while EI's of the external cervical os, Bishop score and cervix length were not significantly different. Time to vaginal delivery was significantly correlated with the EI's of internal cervical os, cervical canal and Bishop score, but not with EI's of the external cervical os and cervix length. Elastography has the potential to predict the outcome of Foley catheter labour induction. © 2015 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Small-Molecule Effectors of Hepatitis B Virus Capsid Assembly Give Insight into Virus Life Cycle▿

PubMed Central

Bourne, Christina; Lee, Sejin; Venkataiah, Bollu; Lee, Angela; Korba, Brent; Finn, M. G.; Zlotnick, Adam

2008-01-01

The relationship between the physical chemistry and biology of self-assembly is poorly understood, but it will be critical to quantitatively understand infection and for the design of antivirals that target virus genesis. Here we take advantage of heteroaryldihydropyrimidines (HAPs), which affect hepatitis B virus (HBV) assembly, to gain insight and correlate in vitro assembly with HBV replication in culture. Based on a low-resolution crystal structure of a capsid-HAP complex, a closely related series of HAPs were designed and synthesized. These differentially strengthen the association between neighboring capsid proteins, alter the kinetics of assembly, and give rise to aberrant structures incompatible with a functional capsid. The chemical nature of the HAP variants correlated well with the structure of the HAP binding pocket. The thermodynamics and kinetics of in vitro assembly had strong and predictable effects on product morphology. However, only the kinetics of in vitro assembly had a strong correlation with inhibition of HBV replication in HepG2.2.15 cells; there was at best a weak correlation between assembly thermodynamics and replication. The correlation between assembly kinetics and virus suppression implies a competition between successful assembly and misassembly, small molecule induced or otherwise. This is a predictive and testable model for the mechanism of action of assembly effectors. PMID:18684823

Medial temporal lobe contributions to cued retrieval of items and contexts.

PubMed

Hannula, Deborah E; Libby, Laura A; Yonelinas, Andrew P; Ranganath, Charan

2013-10-01

Several models have proposed that different regions of the medial temporal lobes contribute to different aspects of episodic memory. For instance, according to one view, the perirhinal cortex represents specific items, parahippocampal cortex represents information regarding the context in which these items were encountered, and the hippocampus represents item-context bindings. Here, we used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test a specific prediction of this model-namely, that successful retrieval of items from context cues will elicit perirhinal recruitment and that successful retrieval of contexts from item cues will elicit parahippocampal cortex recruitment. Retrieval of the bound representation in either case was expected to elicit hippocampal engagement. To test these predictions, we had participants study several item-context pairs (i.e., pictures of objects and scenes, respectively), and then had them attempt to recall items from associated context cues and contexts from associated item cues during a scanned retrieval session. Results based on both univariate and multivariate analyses confirmed a role for hippocampus in content-general relational memory retrieval, and a role for parahippocampal cortex in successful retrieval of contexts from item cues. However, we also found that activity differences in perirhinal cortex were correlated with successful cued recall for both items and contexts. These findings provide partial support for the above predictions and are discussed with respect to several models of medial temporal lobe function. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical determination of lateral loss coefficients for subchannel analysis in nuclear fuel bundles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sin Kim; Goon-Cherl Park

1995-09-01

An accurate prediction of cross-flow based on detailed knowledge of the velocity field in subchannels of a nuclear fuel assembly is of importance in nuclear fuel performance analysis. In this study, the low-Reynolds number {kappa}-{epsilon} turbulence model has been adopted in two adjacent subchannels with cross-flow. The secondary flow is estimated accurately by the anisotropic algebraic Reynolds stress model. This model was numerically calculated by the finite element method and has been verified successfully through comparison with existing experimental data. Finally, with the numerical analysis of the velocity field in such subchannel domain, an analytical correlation of the lateral lossmore » coefficient is obtained to predict the cross-flow rate in subchannel analysis codes. The correlation is expressed as a function of the ratio of the lateral flow velocity to the donor subchannel axial velocity, recipient channel Reynolds number and pitch-to-diameter.« less

A study of leeside flow field heat transfer on Shuttle Orbiter configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baranowski, L. C.; Kipp, H. W.

1984-01-01

A coupled inviscid and viscous theoretical solution of the flow about the entire configuration is the desirable and comprehensive approach to defining thermal environments about the space shuttle orbiter. Simplified methods for predicting entry heating on leeside surfaces of the orbiter are considered. Wind tunnel heat transfer and oil flow data at Mach 6 and 10 and Reynolds numbers ranging from 500,000 to 73 million were used to develop correlations for the wing upper surface and the top surface of the fuselage. These correlations were extrapolated to flight Reynolds number and compared with heating data obtained during the shuttle STS-2 reentry. Efforts directed toward the wing leeside surface resulted in an approach which generally agreed with the flight data. Heating predictions for the upper fuselage were less successful due to the extreme complexity of local flow interactions and the associated heating environment.

Supervised Clustering Based on DPClusO: Prediction of Plant-Disease Relations Using Jamu Formulas of KNApSAcK Database

PubMed Central

Husnawati, Husnawati; Afendi, Farit Mochamad; Darusman, Latifah K.; Altaf-Ul-Amin, Md.; Sato, Tetsuo; Ono, Naoaki; Sugiura, Tadao; Kanaya, Shigehiko

2014-01-01

Indonesia has the largest medicinal plant species in the world and these plants are used as Jamu medicines. Jamu medicines are popular traditional medicines from Indonesia and we need to systemize the formulation of Jamu and develop basic scientific principles of Jamu to meet the requirement of Indonesian Healthcare System. We propose a new approach to predict the relation between plant and disease using network analysis and supervised clustering. At the preliminary step, we assigned 3138 Jamu formulas to 116 diseases of International Classification of Diseases (ver. 10) which belong to 18 classes of disease from National Center for Biotechnology Information. The correlation measures between Jamu pairs were determined based on their ingredient similarity. Networks are constructed and analyzed by selecting highly correlated Jamu pairs. Clusters were then generated by using the network clustering algorithm DPClusO. By using matching score of a cluster, the dominant disease and high frequency plant associated to the cluster are determined. The plant to disease relations predicted by our method were evaluated in the context of previously published results and were found to produce around 90% successful predictions. PMID:24804251

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) for insecticides: development of predictive in vivo insecticide activity models.

PubMed

Naik, P K; Singh, T; Singh, H

2009-07-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analyses were performed independently on data sets belonging to two groups of insecticides, namely the organophosphates and carbamates. Several types of descriptors including topological, spatial, thermodynamic, information content, lead likeness and E-state indices were used to derive quantitative relationships between insecticide activities and structural properties of chemicals. A systematic search approach based on missing value, zero value, simple correlation and multi-collinearity tests as well as the use of a genetic algorithm allowed the optimal selection of the descriptors used to generate the models. The QSAR models developed for both organophosphate and carbamate groups revealed good predictability with r(2) values of 0.949 and 0.838 as well as [image omitted] values of 0.890 and 0.765, respectively. In addition, a linear correlation was observed between the predicted and experimental LD(50) values for the test set data with r(2) of 0.871 and 0.788 for both the organophosphate and carbamate groups, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the QSAR models was acceptable. The models were also tested successfully from external validation criteria. QSAR models developed in this study should help further design of novel potent insecticides.

Predicting Galaxy Star Formation Rates via the Co-evolution of Galaxies and Halos

DOE PAGES

Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; ...

2014-03-06

In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, and as such, that more quiescent galaxies reside in older halos. This simple model has been remarkably successful at predicting color-based galaxy statistics at low redshift as measured in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). To further test this method with observations, we present new SDSS measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star forming galaxy samples. Wemore » find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also employ a galaxy group finder and show that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR-dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an approx r -.15 slope, independent of environment. The accurate prediction for the spatial distribution of satellites is intriguing given the fact that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite, contrary to most galaxy evolution models. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.« less

Estimation of brachial artery volume flow by duplex ultrasound imaging predicts dialysis access maturation.

PubMed

Ko, Sae Hee; Bandyk, Dennis F; Hodgkiss-Harlow, Kelley D; Barleben, Andrew; Lane, John

2015-06-01

This study validated duplex ultrasound measurement of brachial artery volume flow (VF) as predictor of dialysis access flow maturation and successful hemodialysis. Duplex ultrasound was used to image upper extremity dialysis access anatomy and estimate access VF within 1 to 2 weeks of the procedure. Correlation of brachial artery VF with dialysis access conduit VF was performed using a standardized duplex testing protocol in 75 patients. The hemodynamic data were used to develop brachial artery flow velocity criteria (peak systolic velocity and end-diastolic velocity) predictive of three VF categories: low (<600 mL/min), acceptable (600-800 mL/min), or high (>800 mL/min). Brachial artery VF was then measured in 148 patients after a primary (n = 86) or revised (n = 62) upper extremity dialysis access procedure, and the VF category correlated with access maturation or need for revision before hemodialysis usage. Access maturation was conferred when brachial artery VF was >600 mL/min and conduit imaging indicated successful cannulation based on anatomic criteria of conduit diameter >5 mm and skin depth <6 mm. Measurements of VF from the brachial artery and access conduit demonstrated a high degree of correlation (R(2) = 0.805) for autogenous vein (n = 45; R(2) = 0.87) and bridge graft (n = 30; R(2) = 0.78) dialysis accesses. Access VF of >800 mL/min was predicted when the brachial artery lumen diameter was >4.5 mm, peak systolic velocity was >150 cm/s, and the diastolic-to-systolic velocity ratio was >0.4. Brachial artery velocity spectra indicating VF <800 mL/min was associated (P < .0001) with failure of access maturation. Revision was required in 15 of 21 (71%) accesses with a VF of <600 mL/min, 4 of 40 accesses (10%) with aVF of 600 to 800 mL/min, and 2 of 87 accesses (2.3%) with an initial VF of >800 mL/min. Duplex testing to estimate brachial artery VF and assess the conduit for ease of cannulation can be performed in 5 minutes during the initial postoperative vascular clinic evaluation. Estimation of brachial artery VF using the duplex ultrasound, termed the "Fast, 5-min Dialysis Duplex Scan," facilitates patient evaluation after new or revised upper extremity dialysis access procedures. Brachial artery VF correlates with access VF measurements and has the advantage of being easier to perform and applicable for forearm and also arm dialysis access. When brachial artery velocity spectra criteria confirm a VF >800 mL/min, flow maturation and successful hemodialysis are predicted if anatomic criteria for conduit cannulation are also present. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stability theory applications to laminar-flow control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malik, Mujeeb R.

1987-01-01

In order to design Laminar Flow Control (LFC) configurations, reliable methods are needed for boundary-layer transition predictions. Among the available methods, there are correlations based upon R sub e, shape factors, Goertler number and crossflow Reynolds number. The most advanced transition prediction method is based upon linear stability theory in the form of the e sup N method which has proven to be successful in predicting transition in two- and three-dimensional boundary layers. When transition occurs in a low disturbance environment, the e sup N method provides a viable design tool for transition prediction and LFC in both 2-D and 3-D subsonic/supersonic flows. This is true for transition dominated by either TS, crossflow, or Goertler instability. If Goertler/TS or crossflow/TS interaction is present, the e sup N will fail to predict transition. However, there is no evidence of such interaction at low amplitudes of Goertler and crossflow vortices.

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Generalized regression neural network (GRNN)-based approach for colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) retrieval: case study of Connecticut River at Middle Haddam Station, USA.

PubMed

Heddam, Salim

2014-11-01

The prediction of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) using artificial neural network approaches has received little attention in the past few decades. In this study, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) was modeled using generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models as a function of Water temperature (TE), pH, specific conductance (SC), and turbidity (TU). Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of the models is based on the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of correlation (CC), and Willmott's index of agreement (d). The results indicated that GRNN can be applied successfully for prediction of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM).

An engineering approach to design of dextran microgels size fabricated by water/oil emulsification.

PubMed

Salimi-Kenari, Hamed; Imani, Mohammad; Nodehi, Azizollah; Abedini, Hossein

2016-09-01

A correlation, based on fluid mechanics, has been investigated for the mean particle diameter of crosslinked dextran microgels (CDMs) prepared via a water/oil emulsification methodology conducted in a single-stirred vessel. To this end, non-dimensional correlations were developed to predict the mean particle size of CDMs as a function of Weber number, Reynolds number and viscosity number similar to ones introduced for liquid-liquid dispersions. Moreover, a Rosin-Rammler distribution function has been successfully applied to the microgel particle size distributions. The correlations were validated using experimentally obtained mean particle sizes for CDMs prepared at different stirring conditions. The validated correlation is especially applicable to medical and pharmaceutical applications where strict control on the mean particle size and size distribution of CDMs are extremely essential. [Formula: see text].

USAR Recruiting Success Factors.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

scores, were used to predict production scores for each recruiter. Benchmark Achievement Scores (BAS) were computed by dividing total production bv...performance compnred to thil avigle would b ,’asl,_cr t.o compute . SAS correlated high y witi IIAS r .96 . so tihe two scores were practically equivalent...asked to make a sales pitch to a prospective enlistee about the benefits of Army life. Presen- tations were scored by computing the ratio of the

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

New and Accurate Predictive Model for the Efficacy of Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy in Managing Patients With Chronic Plantar Fasciitis.

PubMed

Yin, Mengchen; Chen, Ni; Huang, Quan; Marla, Anastasia Sulindro; Ma, Junming; Ye, Jie; Mo, Wen

2017-12-01

To identify factors for the outcome of a minimum clinically successful therapy and to establish a predictive model of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) in managing patients with chronic plantar fasciitis. Randomized, controlled, prospective study. Outpatient of local medical center settings. Patients treated for symptomatic chronic plantar fasciitis between 2014 and 2016 (N=278). ESWT was performed by the principal authors to treat chronic plantar fasciitis. ESWT was administered in 3 sessions, with an interval of 2 weeks (±4d). In the low-, moderate-, and high-intensity groups, 2400 impulses total of ESWT with an energy flux density of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6mJ/mm 2 , respectively (a rate of 8 impulses per second), were applied. The independent variables were patient age, sex, body mass index, affected side, duration of symptoms, Roles and Maudsley score, visual analog scale (VAS) score when taking first steps in the morning, edema, bone spurs, and intensity grade of ESWT. A minimal reduction of 50% in the VAS score was considered as minimum clinically successful therapy. The correlations between the achievement of minimum clinically successful therapy and independent variables were analyzed. The statistically significant factors identified were further analyzed by multivariate logistic regression, and the predictive model was established. The success rate of ESWT was 66.9%. Univariate analysis found that VAS score when taking first steps in the morning, edema, and the presence of heel spur in radiograph significantly affected the outcome of the treatment. Logistic regression drew the equation: minimum clinically successful therapy=(1+e [.011+42.807×heel spur+.109×edema+5.395×VAS score] ) -1 .The sensitivity of the predictive factors was 96.77%, 87.63%, and 86.02%, respectively. The specificity of the predictive factors was 45.65%, 42.39%, and 85.87%, respectively. The area under the curve of the predictive factors was .751, .650, and .859, respectively. The Youden index was .4243, .3003, and .7189, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fitting of the predictive model, with an overall accuracy of 89.6%. This study establishes a new and accurate predictive model for the efficacy of ESWT in managing patients with chronic plantar fasciitis. The use of these parameters, in the form of a predictive model for ESWT efficacy, has the potential to improve decision-making in the application of ESWT. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Agglomeration, Fouling, and Corrosion Tendency of Fuels in CFB Co-Combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barišć, Vesna; Zabetta, Edgardo Coda; Sarkki, Juha

Prediction of agglomeration, fouling, and corrosion tendency of fuels is essential to the design of any CFB boiler. During the years, tools have been successfully developed at Foster Wheeler to help with such predictions for the most commercial fuels. However, changes in fuel market and the ever-growing demand for co-combustion capabilities pose a continuous need for development. This paper presents results from recently upgraded models used at Foster Wheeler to predict agglomeration, fouling, and corrosion tendency of a variety of fuels and mixtures. The models, subject of this paper, are semi-empirical computer tools that combine the theoretical basics of agglomeration/fouling/corrosion phenomena with empirical correlations. Correlations are derived from Foster Wheeler's experience in fluidized beds, including nearly 10,000 fuel samples and over 1,000 tests in about 150 CFB units. In these models, fuels are evaluated based on their classification, their chemical and physical properties by standard analyses (proximate, ultimate, fuel ash composition, etc.;.) alongside with Foster Wheeler own characterization methods. Mixtures are then evaluated taking into account the component fuels. This paper presents the predictive capabilities of the agglomeration/fouling/corrosion probability models for selected fuels and mixtures fired in full-scale. The selected fuels include coals and different types of biomass. The models are capable to predict the behavior of most fuels and mixtures, but also offer possibilities for further improvements.

Robust human body model injury prediction in simulated side impact crashes.

PubMed

Golman, Adam J; Danelson, Kerry A; Stitzel, Joel D

2016-01-01

This study developed a parametric methodology to robustly predict occupant injuries sustained in real-world crashes using a finite element (FE) human body model (HBM). One hundred and twenty near-side impact motor vehicle crashes were simulated over a range of parameters using a Toyota RAV4 (bullet vehicle), Ford Taurus (struck vehicle) FE models and a validated human body model (HBM) Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS). Three bullet vehicle crash parameters (speed, location and angle) and two occupant parameters (seat position and age) were varied using a Latin hypercube design of Experiments. Four injury metrics (head injury criterion, half deflection, thoracic trauma index and pelvic force) were used to calculate injury risk. Rib fracture prediction and lung strain metrics were also analysed. As hypothesized, bullet speed had the greatest effect on each injury measure. Injury risk was reduced when bullet location was further from the B-pillar or when the bullet angle was more oblique. Age had strong correlation to rib fractures frequency and lung strain severity. The injuries from a real-world crash were predicted using two different methods by (1) subsampling the injury predictors from the 12 best crush profile matching simulations and (2) using regression models. Both injury prediction methods successfully predicted the case occupant's low risk for pelvic injury, high risk for thoracic injury, rib fractures and high lung strains with tight confidence intervals. This parametric methodology was successfully used to explore crash parameter interactions and to robustly predict real-world injuries.

The NASA/industry Design Analysis Methods for Vibrations (DAMVIBS) program: Boeing Helicopters airframe finite element modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gabel, R.; Lang, P.; Reed, D.

1993-01-01

Mathematical models based on the finite element method of structural analysis, as embodied in the NASTRAN computer code, are routinely used by the helicopter industry to calculate airframe static internal loads used for sizing structural members. Historically, less reliance has been placed on the vibration predictions based on these models. Beginning in the early 1980's NASA's Langley Research Center initiated an industry wide program with the objective of engendering the needed trust in vibration predictions using these models and establishing a body of modeling guides which would enable confident future prediction of airframe vibration as part of the regular design process. Emphasis in this paper is placed on the successful modeling of the Army/Boeing CH-47D which showed reasonable correlation with test data. A principal finding indicates that improved dynamic analysis requires greater attention to detail and perhaps a finer mesh, especially the mass distribution, than the usual stress model. Post program modeling efforts show improved correlation placing key modal frequencies in the b/rev range with 4 percent of the test frequencies.

A Predictive Model of Intein Insertion Site for Use in the Engineering of Molecular Switches

PubMed Central

Apgar, James; Ross, Mary; Zuo, Xiao; Dohle, Sarah; Sturtevant, Derek; Shen, Binzhang; de la Vega, Humberto; Lessard, Philip; Lazar, Gabor; Raab, R. Michael

2012-01-01

Inteins are intervening protein domains with self-splicing ability that can be used as molecular switches to control activity of their host protein. Successfully engineering an intein into a host protein requires identifying an insertion site that permits intein insertion and splicing while allowing for proper folding of the mature protein post-splicing. By analyzing sequence and structure based properties of native intein insertion sites we have identified four features that showed significant correlation with the location of the intein insertion sites, and therefore may be useful in predicting insertion sites in other proteins that provide native-like intein function. Three of these properties, the distance to the active site and dimer interface site, the SVM score of the splice site cassette, and the sequence conservation of the site showed statistically significant correlation and strong predictive power, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.79, 0.76, and 0.73 respectively, while the distance to secondary structure/loop junction showed significance but with less predictive power (AUC of 0.54). In a case study of 20 insertion sites in the XynB xylanase, two features of native insertion sites showed correlation with the splice sites and demonstrated predictive value in selecting non-native splice sites. Structural modeling of intein insertions at two sites highlighted the role that the insertion site location could play on the ability of the intein to modulate activity of the host protein. These findings can be used to enrich the selection of insertion sites capable of supporting intein splicing and hosting an intein switch. PMID:22649521

Voluntary temporary abstinence from alcohol during "Dry January" and subsequent alcohol use.

PubMed

de Visser, Richard O; Robinson, Emily; Bond, Rod

2016-03-01

Research suggests that temporary abstinence from alcohol may convey physiological benefits and enhance well-being. The aim of this study was to address a lack of information about: (a) correlates of successful completion of a planned period of abstinence, and (b) how success or failure in planned abstinence affects subsequent alcohol consumption. 857 British adults (249 men, 608 women) participating in the "Dry January" alcohol abstinence challenge completed a baseline questionnaire, a 1-month follow-up questionnaire, and a 6-month follow-up questionnaire. Key variables assessed at baseline included measures of alcohol consumption and drink refusal self-efficacy (DRSE). In bivariate analysis, success during Dry January was predicted by measures of more moderate alcohol consumption and greater social DRSE at baseline. Multivariate analyses revealed that success during Dry January was best predicted by a lower frequency of drunkenness in the month prior to Dry January. Structural equation modeling revealed that participation in Dry January was related to reductions in alcohol consumption and increases in DRSE among all respondents at 6-month follow-up, regardless of success, but indicated that these changes were more likely among people who successfully completed the challenge. The findings suggest that participation in abstinence challenges such as Dry January may be associated with changes toward healthier drinking and greater DRSE, and is unlikely to result in undesirable "rebound effects": very few people reported increased alcohol consumption following a period of voluntary abstinence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting Success in Psychological Statistics Courses.

PubMed

Lester, David

2016-06-01

Many students perform poorly in courses on psychological statistics, and it is useful to be able to predict which students will have difficulties. In a study of 93 undergraduates enrolled in Statistical Methods (18 men, 75 women; M age = 22.0 years, SD = 5.1), performance was significantly associated with sex (female students performed better) and proficiency in algebra in a linear regression analysis. Anxiety about statistics was not associated with course performance, indicating that basic mathematical skills are the best correlate for performance in statistics courses and can usefully be used to stream students into classes by ability. © The Author(s) 2016.

Rhythmic Activity and Individual Variability in Recognition Memory: Theta Oscillations Correlate with Performance whereas Alpha Oscillations Correlate with ERPs.

PubMed

Chen, Yvonne Y; Caplan, Jeremy B

2017-01-01

During study trials of a recognition memory task, alpha (∼10 Hz) oscillations decrease, and concurrently, theta (4-8 Hz) oscillations increase when later memory is successful versus unsuccessful (subsequent memory effect). Likewise, at test, reduced alpha and increased theta activity are associated with successful memory (retrieval success effect). Here we take an individual-differences approach to test three hypotheses about theta and alpha oscillations in verbal, old/new recognition, measuring the difference in oscillations between hit trials and miss trials. First, we test the hypothesis that theta and alpha oscillations have a moderately mutually exclusive relationship; but no support for this hypothesis was found. Second, we test the hypothesis that theta oscillations explain not only memory effects within participants, but also individual differences. Supporting this prediction, durations of theta (but not alpha) oscillations at study and at test correlated significantly with d' across participants. Third, we test the hypothesis that theta and alpha oscillations reflect familiarity and recollection processes by comparing oscillation measures to ERPs that are implicated in familiarity and recollection. The alpha-oscillation effects correlated with some ERP measures, but inversely, suggesting that the actions of alpha oscillations on memory processes are distinct from the roles of familiarity- and recollection-linked ERP signals. The theta-oscillation measures, despite differentiating hits from misses, did not correlate with any ERP measure; thus, theta oscillations may reflect elaborative processes not tapped by recollection-related ERPs. Our findings are consistent with alpha oscillations reflecting visual inattention, which can modulate memory, and with theta oscillations supporting recognition memory in ways that complement the most commonly studied ERPs.

What it takes to invade grassland ecosystems: traits, introduction history and filtering processes

PubMed Central

Carboni, Marta; Münkemüller, Tamara; Lavergne, Sébastien; Choler, Philippe; Borgy, Benjamin; Violle, Cyrille; Essl, Franz; Roquet, Cristina; Munoz, François; Consortium, DivGrass; Thuiller, Wilfried

2016-01-01

Whether the success of alien species can be explained by their functional or phylogenetic characteristics remains unresolved because of data limitations, scale issues and weak quantifications of success. Using permanent grasslands across France (50,000 vegetation-plots, 2000 species, 130 aliens) and building on the Rabinowitz’ classification to quantify spread, we showed that phylogenetic and functional similarities to natives were the most important correlates of invasion success compared to intrinsic functional characteristics and introduction history. Results contrasted between spatial scales and components of invasion success. Widespread and common aliens were similar to co-occurring natives at coarse scales (indicating environmental filtering), but dissimilar at finer scales (indicating local competition). In contrast, regionally widespread but locally rare aliens showed patterns of competitive exclusion already at coarse scale. Quantifying trait differences between aliens and natives and distinguishing the components of invasion success improved our ability to understand and potentially predict alien spread at multiple scales. PMID:26689431

Preparation breeds success: Brain activity predicts remembering.

PubMed

Herron, Jane E; Evans, Lisa H

2018-05-09

Successful retrieval of episodic information is thought to involve the adoption of memory states that ensure that stimulus events are treated as episodic memory cues (retrieval mode) and which can bias retrieval toward specific memory contents (retrieval orientation). The neural correlates of these memory states have been identified in many neuroimaging studies, yet critically there is no direct evidence that they facilitate retrieval success. We cued participants before each test item to prepare to complete an episodic (retrieve the encoding task performed on the item at study) or a non-episodic task. Our design allowed us to separate event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by the preparatory episodic cue according to the accuracy of the subsequent memory judgment. We predicted that a correlate of retrieval orientation should be larger in magnitude preceding correct source judgments than that preceding source errors. This hypothesis was confirmed. Preparatory ERPs at bilateral frontal sites were significantly more positive-going when preceding correct source judgments than when preceding source errors or correct responses in a non-episodic baseline task. Furthermore this effect was not evident prior to recognized items associated with incorrect source judgments. This pattern of results indicates a direct contribution of retrieval orientation to the recovery of task-relevant information and highlights the value of separating preparatory neural activity at retrieval according to subsequent memory accuracy. Moreover, at a more general level this work demonstrates the important role of pre-stimulus processing in ecphory, which has remained largely neglected to date. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Decreased occipital cortical glutamate levels in response to successful cognitive-behavioral therapy and pharmacotherapy for major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Abdallah, Chadi G; Niciu, Mark J; Fenton, Lisa R; Fasula, Madonna K; Jiang, Lihong; Black, Anne; Rothman, Douglas L; Mason, Graeme F; Sanacora, Gerard

2014-01-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that antidepressant medication and electroconvulsive therapy increase occipital cortical γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in major depressive disorder (MDD), but a small pilot study failed to show a similar effect of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) on occipital GABA. In light of these findings we sought to determine if baseline GABA levels predict treatment response and to broaden the analysis to other metabolites and neurotransmitters in this larger study. A total of 40 MDD outpatients received baseline proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS), and 30 subjects completed both pre- and post-CBT 1H-MRS; 9 CBT nonresponders completed an open-label medication phase followed by an additional/3rd 1H-MRS. The magnitude of treatment response was correlated with occipital amino acid neurotransmitter levels. Baseline GABA did not predict treatment outcome. Furthermore, there was no significant effect of CBT on GABA levels. However, we found a significant group × time interaction (F1, 28 = 6.30, p = 0.02), demonstrating reduced glutamate in CBT responders, with no significant glutamate change in CBT nonresponders. These findings corroborate the lack of effect of successful CBT on occipital cortical GABA levels in a larger sample. A reduction in glutamate levels following treatment, on the other hand, correlated with successful CBT and antidepressant medication response. Based on this finding and other reports, decreased occipital glutamate may be an antidepressant response biomarker. Healthy control comparator and nonintervention groups may shed light on the sensitivity and specificity of these results.

Physically Challenging Song Traits, Male Quality, and Reproductive Success in House Wrens

PubMed Central

Cramer, Emily R. A.

2013-01-01

Physically challenging signals are likely to honestly indicate signaler quality. In trilled bird song two physically challenging parameters are vocal deviation (the speed of sound frequency modulation) and trill consistency (how precisely syllables are repeated). As predicted, in several species, they correlate with male quality, are preferred by females, and/or function in male-male signaling. Species may experience different selective pressures on their songs, however; for instance, there may be opposing selection between song complexity and song performance difficulty, such that in species where song complexity is strongly selected, there may not be strong selection on performance-based traits. I tested whether vocal deviation and trill consistency are signals of male quality in house wrens (Troglodytes aedon), a species with complex song structure. Males’ singing ability did not correlate with male quality, except that older males sang with higher trill consistency, and males with more consistent trills responded more aggressively to playback (although a previous study found no effect of stimulus trill consistency on males’ responses to playback). Males singing more challenging songs did not gain in polygyny, extra-pair paternity, or annual reproductive success. Moreover, none of the standard male quality measures I investigated correlated with mating or reproductive success. I conclude that vocal deviation and trill consistency do not signal male quality in this species. PMID:23527137

PREDICTIVE MEASURES OF A RESIDENT'S PERFORMANCE ON WRITTEN ORTHOPAEDIC BOARD SCORES

PubMed Central

Dyrstad, Bradley W; Pope, David; Milbrandt, Joseph C; Beck, Ryan T; Weinhoeft, Anita L.; Idusuyi, Osaretin B

2011-01-01

Objective Residency programs are continually attempting to predict the performance of both current and potential residents. Previous studies have supported the use of USMLE Steps 1 and 2 as predictors of Orthopaedic In-Training Examination (OITE) and eventual American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery success, while others show no significant correlation. A strong performance on OITE examinations does correlate with strong residency performance, and some believe OITE scores are good predictors of future written board success. The current study was designed to examine potential differences in resident assessment measures and their predictive value for written boards. Design/Methods A retrospective review of resident performance data was performed for the past 10 years. Personalized information was removed by the residency coordinator. USMLE Step 1, USMLE Step 2, Orthopaedic In-Training Examination (from first to fifth years of training), and written orthopaedic specialty board scores were collected. Subsequently, the residents were separated into two groups, those scoring above the 35th percentile on written boards and those scoring below. Data were analyzed using correlation and regression analyses to compare and contrast the scores across all tests. Results A significant difference was seen between the groups in regard to USMLE scores for both Step 1 and 2. Also, a significant difference was found between OITE scores for both the second and fifth years. Positive correlations were found for USMLE Step 1, Step 2, OITE 2 and OITE 5 when compared to performance on written boards. One resident initially failed written boards, but passed on the second attempt This resident consistently scored in the 20th and 30th percentiles on the in-training examinations. Conclusions USMLE Step 1 and 2 scores along with OITE scores are helpful in gauging an orthopaedic resident’s performance on written boards. Lower USMLE scores along with consistently low OITE scores likely identify residents at risk of failing their written boards. Close monitoring of the annual OITE scores is recommended and may be useful to identify struggling residents. Future work involving multiple institutions is warranted and would ensure applicability of our findings to other orthopedic residency programs. PMID:22096449

Body Size Is a Significant Predictor of Congruency in Species Richness Patterns: A Meta-Analysis of Aquatic Studies

PubMed Central

Velghe, Katherine; Gregory-Eaves, Irene

2013-01-01

Biodiversity losses over the next century are predicted to result in alterations of ecosystem functions that are on par with other major drivers of global change. Given the seriousness of this issue, there is a need to effectively monitor global biodiversity. Because performing biodiversity censuses of all taxonomic groups is prohibitively costly, indicator groups have been studied to estimate the biodiversity of different taxonomic groups. Quantifying cross-taxon congruence is a method of evaluating the assumption that the diversity of one taxonomic group can be used to predict the diversity of another. To improve the predictive ability of cross-taxon congruence in aquatic ecosystems, we evaluated whether body size, measured as the ratio of average body length between organismal groups, is a significant predictor of their cross-taxon biodiversity congruence. To test this hypothesis, we searched the published literature and screened for studies that used species richness correlations as their metric of cross-taxon congruence. We extracted 96 correlation coefficients from 16 studies, which encompassed 784 inland water bodies. With these correlation coefficients, we conducted a categorical meta-analysis, grouping data based on the body size ratio of organisms. Our results showed that cross-taxon congruence is variable among sites and between different groups (r values ranging between −0.53 to 0.88). In addition, our quantitative meta-analysis demonstrated that organisms most similar in body size showed stronger species richness correlations than organisms which differed increasingly in size (radj 2 = 0.94, p = 0.02). We propose that future studies applying biodiversity indicators in aquatic ecosystems consider functional traits such as body size, so as to increase their success at predicting the biodiversity of taxonomic groups where cost-effective conservation tools are needed. PMID:23468903

The Role of Stanford Achievement Test 10[TM] Subtests in Sixth Grade as a Predictor of Success on ACT's Eighth Grade Explore Exam[TM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Potts, Jeffrey D.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if there was a predictive correlation between a specific sixth grade achievement test known as the Stanford Achievement Test 10 and the eighth grade college readiness assessment instrument known as the Explore Exam for a group of North Texas students. Following an assessment during sixth grade, via the…

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillesand, T. M.; Johnson, W. L.; Deuell, R. L.; Lindstrom, O. M.; Meisner, D. E.

1983-01-01

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Sequence-Based Prediction of RNA-Binding Proteins Using Random Forest with Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance Feature Selection.

PubMed

Ma, Xin; Guo, Jing; Sun, Xiao

2015-01-01

The prediction of RNA-binding proteins is one of the most challenging problems in computation biology. Although some studies have investigated this problem, the accuracy of prediction is still not sufficient. In this study, a highly accurate method was developed to predict RNA-binding proteins from amino acid sequences using random forests with the minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) method, followed by incremental feature selection (IFS). We incorporated features of conjoint triad features and three novel features: binding propensity (BP), nonbinding propensity (NBP), and evolutionary information combined with physicochemical properties (EIPP). The results showed that these novel features have important roles in improving the performance of the predictor. Using the mRMR-IFS method, our predictor achieved the best performance (86.62% accuracy and 0.737 Matthews correlation coefficient). High prediction accuracy and successful prediction performance suggested that our method can be a useful approach to identify RNA-binding proteins from sequence information.

Examining Critical Thinking Skills in Family Medicine Residents.

PubMed

Ross, David; Schipper, Shirley; Westbury, Chris; Linh Banh, Hoan; Loeffler, Kim; Allan, G Michael; Ross, Shelley

2016-02-01

Our objective was to determine the relationship between critical thinking skills and objective measures of academic success in a family medicine residency program. This prospective observational cohort study was set in a large Canadian family medicine residency program. Intervention was the California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), administered at three points in residency: upon entry, at mid-point, and at graduation. Results from the CCTST, Canadian Residency Matching Service file, and interview scores were compared to other measures of academic performance (Medical Colleges Admission Test [MCAT] and College of Family Physicians of Canada [CCFP] certification examination results). For participants (n=60), significant positive correlations were found between critical thinking skills and performance on tests of knowledge. For the MCAT, CCTST scores correlated positively with full scores (n=24, r=0.57) as well as with each section score (verbal reasoning: r=0.59; physical sciences: r=0.64; biological sciences: r=0.54). For CCFP examination, CCTST correlated reliably with both sections (n=49, orals: r=0.34; short answer: r=0.47). Additionally, CCTST was a better predictor of performance on the CCFP exam than was the interview score at selection into the residency program (Fisher's r-to-z test, z=2.25). Success on a critical thinking skills exam was found to predict success on family medicine certification examinations. Given that critical thinking skills appear to be stable throughout residency training, including an assessment of critical thinking in the selection process may help identify applicants more likely to be successful on final certification exam.

QSAR models for prediction of chromatographic behavior of homologous Fab variants.

PubMed

Robinson, Julie R; Karkov, Hanne S; Woo, James A; Krogh, Berit O; Cramer, Steven M

2017-06-01

While quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models have been employed successfully for the prediction of small model protein chromatographic behavior, there have been few reports to date on the use of this methodology for larger, more complex proteins. Recently our group generated focused libraries of antibody Fab fragment variants with different combinations of surface hydrophobicities and electrostatic potentials, and demonstrated that the unique selectivities of multimodal resins can be exploited to separate these Fab variants. In this work, results from linear salt gradient experiments with these Fabs were employed to develop QSAR models for six chromatographic systems, including multimodal (Capto MMC, Nuvia cPrime, and two novel ligand prototypes), hydrophobic interaction chromatography (HIC; Capto Phenyl), and cation exchange (CEX; CM Sepharose FF) resins. The models utilized newly developed "local descriptors" to quantify changes around point mutations in the Fab libraries as well as novel cluster descriptors recently introduced by our group. Subsequent rounds of feature selection and linearized machine learning algorithms were used to generate robust, well-validated models with high training set correlations (R 2  > 0.70) that were well suited for predicting elution salt concentrations in the various systems. The developed models then were used to predict the retention of a deamidated Fab and isotype variants, with varying success. The results represent the first successful utilization of QSAR for the prediction of chromatographic behavior of complex proteins such as Fab fragments in multimodal chromatographic systems. The framework presented here can be employed to facilitate process development for the purification of biological products from product-related impurities by in silico screening of resin alternatives. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 1231-1240. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Invasion of novel habitats uncouples haplo-diplontic life cycles.

PubMed

Krueger-Hadfield, Stacy A; Kollars, Nicole M; Byers, James E; Greig, Thomas W; Hammann, Mareike; Murray, David C; Murren, Courtney J; Strand, Allan E; Terada, Ryuta; Weinberger, Florian; Sotka, Erik E

2016-08-01

Baker's Law predicts uniparental reproduction will facilitate colonization success in novel habitats. While evidence supports this prediction among colonizing plants and animals, few studies have investigated shifts in reproductive mode in haplo-diplontic species in which both prolonged haploid and diploid stages separate meiosis and fertilization in time and space. Due to this separation, asexual reproduction can yield the dominance of one of the ploidy stages in colonizing populations. We tested for shifts in ploidy and reproductive mode across native and introduced populations of the red seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla. Native populations in the northwest Pacific Ocean were nearly always attached by holdfasts to hard substrata and, as is characteristic of the genus, haploid-diploid ratios were slightly diploid-biased. In contrast, along North American and European coastlines, introduced populations nearly always floated atop soft-sediment mudflats and were overwhelmingly dominated by diploid thalli without holdfasts. Introduced populations exhibited population genetic signals consistent with extensive vegetative fragmentation, while native populations did not. Thus, the ecological shift from attached to unattached thalli, ostensibly necessitated by the invasion of soft-sediment habitats, correlated with shifts from sexual to asexual reproduction and slight to strong diploid bias. We extend Baker's Law by predicting other colonizing haplo-diplontic species will show similar increases in asexuality that correlate with the dominance of one ploidy stage. Labile mating systems likely facilitate colonization success and subsequent range expansion, but for haplo-diplontic species, the long-term eco-evolutionary impacts will depend on which ploidy stage is lost and the degree to which asexual reproduction is canalized. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Semiquantitative Culture Analysis during Therapy for Mycobacterium avium Complex Lung Disease.

PubMed

Griffith, David E; Adjemian, Jennifer; Brown-Elliott, Barbara A; Philley, Julie V; Prevots, D Rebecca; Gaston, Christopher; Olivier, Kenneth N; Wallace, Richard J

2015-09-15

Microbiologically based criteria such as sputum culture conversion to negative have traditionally been used to define treatment success for mycobacterial diseases. There are, however, limited data regarding whether nontuberculous mycobacterial sputum culture conversion or semiquantitative culture analysis correlates with subjective or nonmicrobiologic objective indices of treatment response. To determine whether a semiquantitative mycobacterial culture scale correlated with clinical disease status and was predictive of long-term sputum mycobacterial culture conversion to negative in a cohort of patients with nodular/bronchiectatic Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease undergoing therapy. One hundred and eighty patients undergoing standard macrolide-based therapy for M. avium complex lung disease were monitored at standard frequent intervals with symptomatic, radiographic, and microbiologic data collected, including semiquantitative mycobacterial culture analysis. Analyses were used to evaluate clinical and microbiologic predictors of long-term sputum conversion to culture negative. After 12 months of therapy, 148 (82%) patients had sputum conversion to culture negative. Baseline semiquantitative sputum culture scores did not differ between patients with sputum conversion and those without. The change in sputum culture semiquantitative score from baseline to Month 3 was highly predictive of subsequent sputum long-term conversion status indicative of treatment success, as was improvement in cough, and especially early radiographic improvement. Early semiquantitative sputum agar plate culture results can be used to predict symptomatic and radiographic improvement as well as long-term sputum culture conversion to negative in this population. We suggest that semiquantitative sputum culture scores can be a useful tool for evaluating new nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease therapies.

Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

2013-01-01

In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ambivalent Sexism and Power-Related Gender-role Ideology in Marriage

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhixia; Fiske, Susan T.; Lee, Tiane L.

2013-01-01

Glick-Fiske's (1996) Ambivalent Sexism Inventory(ASI) and a new Gender-Role Ideology in Marriage (GRIM) inventory examine ambivalent sexism toward women, predicting power-related, gender-role beliefs about mate selection and marriage norms. Mainland Chinese, 552, and 252 U.S. undergraduates participated. Results indicated that Chinese and men most endorsed hostile sexism; Chinese women more than U.S. women accepted benevolent sexism. Both Chinese genders prefer home-oriented mates (women especially seeking a provider and upholding him; men especially endorsing male-success/female-housework, male dominance, and possibly violence). Both U.S. genders prefer considerate mates (men especially seeking an attractive one). Despite gender and culture differences in means, ASI-GRIM correlations replicate across those subgroups: Benevolence predicts initial mate selection; hostility predicts subsequent marriage norms. PMID:24058258

A REEXAMINATION OF THE POLLEN-DONATION HYPOTHESIS IN AN EXPERIMENTAL POPULATION OF ASCLEPIAS EXALTATA.

PubMed

Broyles, Steven B; Wyatt, Robert

1995-02-01

The evolution of large floral displays in hermaphroditic flowering plants has been attributed to natural selection acting to enhance male, rather than female, reproductive success. Proponents of the "pollen-donation hypothesis" have assumed that maternal resources, rather than levels of effective pollination, limit fruit set. We investigated the pollen-donation hypothesis in an experimental population of poke milkweed, Asclepias exaltata, where effective pollination did not limit fruit set. Specifically, we examined the effects of flower number per plant, and flower number per umbel on male reproductive success (number of fruits sired) and female reproductive success (number of fruits matured). In 1990, a paternity analysis was performed on fruits collected from 53 plants whose inflorescences were not manipulated. Flower number per plant was significantly correlated with male success, but not with plant gender. Flower number per plant was also significantly correlated with female success, but umbel number and stem number per plant together explained more than half (58%) the variation in female success. The percentage of fruit set was not significantly correlated with flower number per plant. Plants with large floral displays did not disproportionately increase in male reproductive success, relative to female success, as predicted by the pollen-donation hypothesis. In 1991, the effect of flower number per umbel on male and female reproductive success was investigated. Flower number per umbel was manipulated on four umbels per plant by removing flowers to leave 6, 12, or 18 flowers in each umbel. Plants with the largest umbels effectively pollinated twice as many flowers on other plants, but produced only 1.35 times as many fruits as plants with 6 and 12 flowers per umbel. Relative maleness of plants with large umbels was nearly twice that of small and medium umbels. Although these observations are consistent with the pollen-donation hypothesis at the level of umbels, they are problematic, because much of the variation in flower number per umbel exists within, rather than among, plants in natural populations. Thus, plants consist of both reproductively male (large) and female (small) inflorescences, which act to increase total reproductive success. It is therefore inappropriate to explain the evolution of large floral displays in milkweeds solely in terms of potential male reproductive success. © 1995 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Childhood peer reputation as a predictor of competence and symptoms 10 years later.

PubMed

Gest, Scott D; Sesma, Arturo; Masten, Ann S; Tellegen, Auke

2006-08-01

This study examined the differential developmental significance of multiple domains of peer reputation in childhood for current and future competence and symptoms. Participants were 205 children from a normative school cohort who completed assessments in grades 3-6 and then again 10 years later. Through re-analysis of original data from the Revised Class Play (RCP; N=612), new narrow-band subscales were examined as distinct correlates and predictors of competence in age-relevant developmental tasks and psychological well being as indexed by internalizing symptoms. Findings support the differentiation of peer exclusion, withdrawal, and sadness within the broad sensitive-isolated domain of reputation, as well as the distinctive meaning of reputations for Popularity-Leadership and Prosocial Behavior within the broad Sociable-Leader domain. When the Sensitive-Isolated predictors were considered, academic and job competence at the 10-year follow-up were predicted uniquely and negatively by peer exclusion, problems in the social and romantic domains were predicted distinctively by withdrawal from peers, and internalizing symptoms were uniquely predicted by childhood reputation as Sad-Sensitive. When the Sociable-Leader predictors were considered, academic and (for ethnic minority youth) job success was predicted by a Prosocial reputation, social success was forecasted by Popularity-Leadership, and romantic competence was predicted positively by Popularity-Leadership and negatively by Prosocial reputation. Negative academic and job outcomes were also predicted by a childhood reputation as Aggressive-Disruptive. Results are discussed in relation to conceptualizing and measuring peer social competence and its relation to later adaptation.

Multi-target QSPR modeling for simultaneous prediction of multiple gas-phase kinetic rate constants of diverse chemicals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

2018-03-01

The reactions of molecular ozone (O3), hydroxyl (•OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals are among the major pathways of removal of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmospheric environment. The gas-phase kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) are thus, important in assessing the ultimate fate and exposure risk of atmospheric VOCs. Experimental data for rate constants are not available for many emerging VOCs and the computational methods reported so far address a single target modeling only. In this study, we have developed a multi-target (mt) QSPR model for simultaneous prediction of multiple kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) of diverse organic chemicals considering an experimental data set of VOCs for which values of all the three rate constants are available. The mt-QSPR model identified and used five descriptors related to the molecular size, degree of saturation and electron density in a molecule, which were mechanistically interpretable. These descriptors successfully predicted three rate constants simultaneously. The model yielded high correlations (R2 = 0.874-0.924) between the experimental and simultaneously predicted endpoint rate constant (kO3, kOH, kNO3) values in test arrays for all the three systems. The model also passed all the stringent statistical validation tests for external predictivity. The proposed multi-target QSPR model can be successfully used for predicting reactivity of new VOCs simultaneously for their exposure risk assessment.

What Matters from Admissions? Identifying Success and Risk Among Canadian Dental Students.

PubMed

Plouffe, Rachel A; Hammond, Robert; Goldberg, Harvey A; Chahine, Saad

2018-05-01

The aims of this study were to determine whether different student profiles would emerge in terms of high and low GPA performance in each year of dental school and to investigate the utility of preadmissions variables in predicting performance and performance stability throughout each year of dental school. Data from 11 graduating cohorts (2004-14) at the Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, Canada, were collected and analyzed using bivariate correlations, latent profile analysis, and hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs). The data analyzed were for 616 students in total (332 males and 284 females). Four models were developed to predict adequate and poor performance throughout each of four dental school years. An additional model was developed to predict student performance stability across time. Two separate student profiles reflecting high and low GPA performance across each year of dental school were identified, and scores on cognitive preadmissions variables differentially predicted the probability of grouping into high and low performance profiles. Students with higher pre-dental GPAs and DAT chemistry were most likely to remain stable in a high-performance group across each year of dental school. Overall, the findings suggest that selection committees should consider pre-dental GPA and DAT chemistry scores as important tools for predicting dental school performance and stability across time. This research is important in determining how to better predict success and failure in various areas of preclinical dentistry courses and to provide low-performing students with adequate academic assistance.

Use of Continuous Monitors and Autosamplers to Predict Unmeasured Water-Quality Constituents in Tributaries of the Tualatin River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Chauncey W.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Management of water quality in streams of the United States is becoming increasingly complex as regulators seek to control aquatic pollution and ecological problems through Total Maximum Daily Load programs that target reductions in the concentrations of certain constituents. Sediment, nutrients, and bacteria, for example, are constituents that regulators target for reduction nationally and in the Tualatin River basin, Oregon. These constituents require laboratory analysis of discrete samples for definitive determinations of concentrations in streams. Recent technological advances in the nearly continuous, in situ monitoring of related water-quality parameters has fostered the use of these parameters as surrogates for the labor intensive, laboratory-analyzed constituents. Although these correlative techniques have been successful in large rivers, it was unclear whether they could be applied successfully in tributaries of the Tualatin River, primarily because these streams tend to be small, have rapid hydrologic response to rainfall and high streamflow variability, and may contain unique sources of sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. This report evaluates the feasibility of developing correlative regression models for predicting dependent variables (concentrations of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and Escherichia coli bacteria) in two Tualatin River basin streams: one draining highly urbanized land (Fanno Creek near Durham, Oregon) and one draining rural agricultural land (Dairy Creek at Highway 8 near Hillsboro, Oregon), during 2002-04. An important difference between these two streams is their response to storm runoff; Fanno Creek has a relatively rapid response due to extensive upstream impervious areas and Dairy Creek has a relatively slow response because of the large amount of undeveloped upstream land. Four other stream sites also were evaluated, but in less detail. Potential explanatory variables included continuously monitored streamflow (discharge), stream stage, specific conductance, turbidity, and time (to account for seasonal processes). Preliminary multiple-regression models were identified using stepwise regression and Mallow's Cp, which maximizes regression correlation coefficients and accounts for the loss of additional degrees of freedom when extra explanatory variables are used. Several data scenarios were created and evaluated for each site to assess the representativeness of existing monitoring data and autosampler-derived data, and to assess the utility of the available data to develop robust predictive models. The goodness-of-fit of candidate predictive models was assessed with diagnostic statistics from validation exercises that compared predictions against a subset of the available data. The regression modeling met with mixed success. Functional model forms that have a high likelihood of success were identified for most (but not all) dependent variables at each site, but there were limitations in the available datasets, notably the lack of samples from high-flows. These limitations increase the uncertainty in the predictions of the models and suggest that the models are not yet ready for use in assessing these streams, particularly under high-flow conditions, without additional data collection and recalibration of model coefficients. Nonetheless, the results reveal opportunities to use existing resources more efficiently. Baseline conditions are well represented in the available data, and, for the most part, the models reproduced these conditions well. Future sampling might therefore focus on high flow conditions, without much loss of ability to characterize the baseline. Seasonal cycles, as represented by trigonometric functions of time, were not significant in the evaluated models, perhaps because the baseline conditions are well characterized in the datasets or because the other explanatory variables indirectly incorporate seasonal aspects. Multicollinearity among independent variabl

A consistent hierarchy of generalized kinetic equation approximations to the master equation applied to surface catalysis.

PubMed

Herschlag, Gregory J; Mitran, Sorin; Lin, Guang

2015-06-21

We develop a hierarchy of approximations to the master equation for systems that exhibit translational invariance and finite-range spatial correlation. Each approximation within the hierarchy is a set of ordinary differential equations that considers spatial correlations of varying lattice distance; the assumption is that the full system will have finite spatial correlations and thus the behavior of the models within the hierarchy will approach that of the full system. We provide evidence of this convergence in the context of one- and two-dimensional numerical examples. Lower levels within the hierarchy that consider shorter spatial correlations are shown to be up to three orders of magnitude faster than traditional kinetic Monte Carlo methods (KMC) for one-dimensional systems, while predicting similar system dynamics and steady states as KMC methods. We then test the hierarchy on a two-dimensional model for the oxidation of CO on RuO2(110), showing that low-order truncations of the hierarchy efficiently capture the essential system dynamics. By considering sequences of models in the hierarchy that account for longer spatial correlations, successive model predictions may be used to establish empirical approximation of error estimates. The hierarchy may be thought of as a class of generalized phenomenological kinetic models since each element of the hierarchy approximates the master equation and the lowest level in the hierarchy is identical to a simple existing phenomenological kinetic models.

Synthesized airfoil data method for prediction of dynamic stall and unsteady airloads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangwani, S. T.

1983-01-01

A detailed analysis of dynamic stall experiments has led to a set of relatively compact analytical expressions, called synthesized unsteady airfoil data, which accurately describe in the time-domain the unsteady aerodynamic characteristics of stalled airfoils. An analytical research program was conducted to expand and improve this synthesized unsteady airfoil data method using additional available sets of unsteady airfoil data. The primary objectives were to reduce these data to synthesized form for use in rotor airload prediction analyses and to generalize the results. Unsteady drag data were synthesized which provided the basis for successful expansion of the formulation to include computation of the unsteady pressure drag of airfoils and rotor blades. Also, an improved prediction model for airfoil flow reattachment was incorporated in the method. Application of this improved unsteady aerodynamics model has resulted in an improved correlation between analytic predictions and measured full scale helicopter blade loads and stress data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shirazi, M.A.; Davis, L.R.

To obtain improved prediction of heated plume characteristics from a surface jet, an integral analysis computer model was modified and a comprehensive set of field and laboratory data available from the literature was gathered, analyzed, and correlated for estimating the magnitude of certain coefficients that are normally introduced in these analyses to achieve closure. The parameters so estimated include the coefficients for entrainment, turbulent exchange, drag, and shear. Since there appeared considerable scatter in the data, even after appropriate subgrouping to narrow the influence of various flow conditions on the data, only statistical procedures could be applied to find themore » best fit. This and other analyses of its type have been widely used in industry and government for the prediction of thermal plumes from steam power plants. Although the present model has many shortcomings, a recent independent and exhaustive assessment of such predictions revealed that in comparison with other analyses of its type the present analysis predicts the field situations more successfully.« less

Prediction of Unshsrouded Rotor Blade Tip Heat Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ameri, A. A.; Steinthorsson, E.

1994-01-01

The rate of heat transfer on the tip of a turbine rotor blade and on the blade surface in the vicinity of the tip, was successfully predicted. The computations were performed with a multiblock computer code which solves the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations using an efficient multigrid method. The case considered for the present calculations was the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbine. The predictions of the blade tip heat transfer agreed reasonably well with the experimental measurements using the present level of grid refinement. On the tip surface, regions with high rate of heat transfer was found to exist close to the pressure side and suction side edges. Enhancement of the heat transfer was also observed on the blade surface near the tip. Further comparison of the predictions was performed with results obtained from correlations based on fully developed channel flow.

Reasoning about logical propositions and success in science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piburn, Michael D.

1990-12-01

Students display a number of misconceptions when asked to reason about logical propositions. Rather than being random, these misconceptions are stereotypic, and relate to age, ability, and success in science. The grades in science achieved by tenth-grade general science students from two parochial single-sex schools in Australia correlated with their scores on the Propositional Logic Test. The students' ability level was consistently related to the pattern of errors they committed on that measure. Mean scores were lowest on a subtest of ability to use the biconditional and implication, higher on the disjunction, and highest on the conjunction. Success in science was predicted most strongly by the disjunction and biconditional subtests. Knowledge of the way in which a person reasons about logical propositions provides additional insights into the transformations information is subjected to as it is integrated into mental schemata.

The roles of climate, phylogenetic relatedness, introduction effort, and reproductive traits in the establishment of non-native reptiles and amphibians.

PubMed

van Wilgen, Nicola J; Richardson, David M

2012-04-01

We developed a method to predict the potential of non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna) to establish populations. This method may inform efforts to prevent the introduction of invasive non-native species. We used boosted regression trees to determine whether nine variables influence establishment success of introduced herpetofauna in California and Florida. We used an independent data set to assess model performance. Propagule pressure was the variable most strongly associated with establishment success. Species with short juvenile periods and species with phylogenetically more distant relatives in regional biotas were more likely to establish than species that start breeding later and those that have close relatives. Average climate match (the similarity of climate between native and non-native range) and life form were also important. Frogs and lizards were the taxonomic groups most likely to establish, whereas a much lower proportion of snakes and turtles established. We used results from our best model to compile a spreadsheet-based model for easy use and interpretation. Probability scores obtained from the spreadsheet model were strongly correlated with establishment success as were probabilities predicted for independent data by the boosted regression tree model. However, the error rate for predictions made with independent data was much higher than with cross validation using training data. This difference in predictive power does not preclude use of the model to assess the probability of establishment of herpetofauna because (1) the independent data had no information for two variables (meaning the full predictive capacity of the model could not be realized) and (2) the model structure is consistent with the recent literature on the primary determinants of establishment success for herpetofauna. It may still be difficult to predict the establishment probability of poorly studied taxa, but it is clear that non-native species (especially lizards and frogs) that mature early and come from environments similar to that of the introduction region have the highest probability of establishment. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

A unifying concept: pancreatic ductal anatomy both predicts and determines the major complications resulting from pancreatitis.

PubMed

Nealon, William H; Bhutani, Manoop; Riall, Taylor S; Raju, Gottumukkala; Ozkan, Orhan; Neilan, Ryan

2009-05-01

Precepts about acute pancreatitis, necrotizing pancreatitis, and pancreatic fluid collections or pseudocyst rarely include the impact of pancreatic ductal injuries on their natural course and outcomes. We previously examined and established a system to categorize ductal changes. We sought a unifying concept that may predict course and direct therapies in these complex patients. We use our system categorizing ductal changes in pseudocyst of the pancreas and severe necrotizing pancreatitis (type I, normal duct; type II, duct stricture; type III, duct occlusion or "disconnected duct"; and type IV, chronic pancreatitis). From 1985 to 2006, a policy was implemented of routine imaging (cross-sectional, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography). Clinical outcomes were measured. Among 563 patients with pseudocyst, 142 resolved spontaneously (87% of type I, 5% of type II, and no type III, and 3% of type IV). Percutaneous drainage was successful in 83% of type I, 49% of type II, and no type III or type IV. Among 174 patients with severe acute pancreatitis percutaneous drainage was successful in 64% of type I, 38% of type II, and no type III. Operative debridement was required in 39% of type I and 83% and 85% of types II and III, respectively. Persistent fistula after debridement occurred in 27%, 54%, and 85% of types I, II, and III ducts, respectively. Late complications correlated with duct injury. Pancreatic ductal changes predict spontaneous resolution, success of nonoperative measures, and direct therapies in pseudocyst. Ductal changes also predict patients with necrotizing pancreatitis who are most likely to have immediate and delayed complications.

[Monitoring depth of anesthesia: a comparision between electroencephalographic nonlinear index and bispectral index].

PubMed

Yu, Hai; Yang, Xiao-Yun; Zhu, Da; Du, Run-Zi; Yin, Yan; Zhou, Rong-Hua; Liu, Bin

2010-01-01

To compare the efficiency and accuracy of electroencephalographic nonlinear index (ENI) and bispectral index (BIS) in monitoring depth of anesthesia during general anesthesia. Thirty patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery were recruited. The ability of ENI and BIS to distinguish between the anesthetic states (awake, loss of eyelash reflex, loss of response, steady anesthesia, first reaction and extubation) was analyzed with prediction probability (Pk). Correlation between ENI and BIS was tested by nonparametric Spearman rank correlation analysis, with data paired from awake through to extubation. The clinical performances of ENI and BIS were evaluated with success rate, responsiveness, and recovery time. ENI and BIS were better than mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) for distinguishing between the states of anesthesia. ENI correlated strongly with BIS from the stage of awake through to extubation (r = 0.93). No differences were found between ENI and BIS in success rate and responsiveness; but the recovery time was shorter with ENI than with BIS. ENI and BIS provide similar information reflecting the states of anesthesia, which allows accurate distinguishment between different states of anesthesia. The clinical performance of ENI is better than that of BIS.

Looking Like a Leader–Facial Shape Predicts Perceived Height and Leadership Ability

PubMed Central

Re, Daniel E.; Hunter, David W.; Coetzee, Vinet; Tiddeman, Bernard P.; Xiao, Dengke; DeBruine, Lisa M.; Jones, Benedict C.; Perrett, David I.

2013-01-01

Judgments of leadership ability from face images predict the outcomes of actual political elections and are correlated with leadership success in the corporate world. The specific facial cues that people use to judge leadership remain unclear, however. Physical height is also associated with political and organizational success, raising the possibility that facial cues of height contribute to leadership perceptions. Consequently, we assessed whether cues to height exist in the face and, if so, whether they are associated with perception of leadership ability. We found that facial cues to perceived height had a strong relationship with perceived leadership ability. Furthermore, when allowed to manually manipulate faces, participants increased facial cues associated with perceived height in order to maximize leadership perception. A morphometric analysis of face shape revealed that structural facial masculinity was not responsible for the relationship between perceived height and perceived leadership ability. Given the prominence of facial appearance in making social judgments, facial cues to perceived height may have a significant influence on leadership selection. PMID:24324651

Artificial Lipid Membrane Permeability Method for Predicting Intestinal Drug Transport: Probing the Determining Step in the Oral Absorption of Sulfadiazine; Influence of the Formation of Binary and Ternary Complexes with Cyclodextrins.

PubMed

Delrivo, Alicia; Aloisio, Carolina; Longhi, Marcela R; Granero, Gladys

2018-04-01

We propose an in vitro permeability assay by using a modified lipid membrane to predict the in vivo intestinal passive permeability of drugs. Two conditions were tested, one with a gradient pH (pH 5.5 donor/pH 7.4 receptor) and the other with an iso-pH 7.4. The predictability of the method was established by correlating the obtained apparent intestinal permeability coefficients (P app ) and the oral dose fraction absorbed in humans (f a ) of 16 drugs with different absorption properties. The P app values correlated well with the absorption rates under the two conditions, and the method showed high predictability and good reproducibility. On the other hand, with this method, we successfully predicted the transport characteristics of oral sulfadiazine (SDZ). Also, the tradeoff between the increase in the solubility of SDZ by its complex formation with cyclodextrins and/or aminoacids and its oral permeability was assessed. Results suggest that SDZ is transported through the gastrointestinal epithelium by passive diffusion in a pH-dependent manner. These results support the classification of SDZ as a high/low borderline permeability compound and are in agreement with the Biopharmaceutics Classification Systems (BCS). This conclusion is consistent with the in vivo pharmacokinetic properties of SDZ.

Timescale Correlation between Marine Atmospheric Exposure and Accelerated Corrosion Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, Eliza L.; Calle, Luz Marina; Curran, Jerone C.; Kolody, Mark R.

2011-01-01

Evaluation of metal-based structures has long relied on atmospheric exposure test sites to determine corrosion resistance in marine environments. Traditional accelerated corrosion testing relies on mimicking the exposure conditions, often incorporating salt spray and ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and exposing the metal to continuous or cyclic conditions of the corrosive environment. Their success for correlation to atmospheric exposure is often a concern when determining the timescale to which the accelerated tests can be related. Accelerated laboratory testing, which often focuses on the electrochemical reactions that occur during corrosion conditions, has yet to be universally accepted as a useful tool in predicting the long term service life of a metal despite its ability to rapidly induce corrosion. Although visual and mass loss methods of evaluating corrosion are the standard and their use is imperative, a method that correlates timescales from atmospheric exposure to accelerated testing would be very valuable. This work uses surface chemistry to interpret the chemical changes occurring on low carbon steel during atmospheric and accelerated corrosion conditions with the objective of finding a correlation between its accelerated and long-term corrosion performance. The current results of correlating data from marine atmospheric exposure conditions at the Kennedy Space Center beachside corrosion test site, alternating seawater spray, and immersion in typical electrochemical laboratory conditions, will be presented. Key words: atmospheric exposure, accelerated corrosion testing, alternating seawater spray, marine, correlation, seawater, carbon steel, long-term corrosion performance prediction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy.

Feature Selection Methods for Zero-Shot Learning of Neural Activity.

PubMed

Caceres, Carlos A; Roos, Matthew J; Rupp, Kyle M; Milsap, Griffin; Crone, Nathan E; Wolmetz, Michael E; Ratto, Christopher R

2017-01-01

Dimensionality poses a serious challenge when making predictions from human neuroimaging data. Across imaging modalities, large pools of potential neural features (e.g., responses from particular voxels, electrodes, and temporal windows) have to be related to typically limited sets of stimuli and samples. In recent years, zero-shot prediction models have been introduced for mapping between neural signals and semantic attributes, which allows for classification of stimulus classes not explicitly included in the training set. While choices about feature selection can have a substantial impact when closed-set accuracy, open-set robustness, and runtime are competing design objectives, no systematic study of feature selection for these models has been reported. Instead, a relatively straightforward feature stability approach has been adopted and successfully applied across models and imaging modalities. To characterize the tradeoffs in feature selection for zero-shot learning, we compared correlation-based stability to several other feature selection techniques on comparable data sets from two distinct imaging modalities: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Electrocorticography. While most of the feature selection methods resulted in similar zero-shot prediction accuracies and spatial/spectral patterns of selected features, there was one exception; A novel feature/attribute correlation approach was able to achieve those accuracies with far fewer features, suggesting the potential for simpler prediction models that yield high zero-shot classification accuracy.

How Structure Defines Affinity in Protein-Protein Interactions

PubMed Central

Erijman, Ariel; Rosenthal, Eran; Shifman, Julia M.

2014-01-01

Protein-protein interactions (PPI) in nature are conveyed by a multitude of binding modes involving various surfaces, secondary structure elements and intermolecular interactions. This diversity results in PPI binding affinities that span more than nine orders of magnitude. Several early studies attempted to correlate PPI binding affinities to various structure-derived features with limited success. The growing number of high-resolution structures, the appearance of more precise methods for measuring binding affinities and the development of new computational algorithms enable more thorough investigations in this direction. Here, we use a large dataset of PPI structures with the documented binding affinities to calculate a number of structure-based features that could potentially define binding energetics. We explore how well each calculated biophysical feature alone correlates with binding affinity and determine the features that could be used to distinguish between high-, medium- and low- affinity PPIs. Furthermore, we test how various combinations of features could be applied to predict binding affinity and observe a slow improvement in correlation as more features are incorporated into the equation. In addition, we observe a considerable improvement in predictions if we exclude from our analysis low-resolution and NMR structures, revealing the importance of capturing exact intermolecular interactions in our calculations. Our analysis should facilitate prediction of new interactions on the genome scale, better characterization of signaling networks and design of novel binding partners for various target proteins. PMID:25329579

Generating Dynamic Persistence in the Time Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, A.; Smith, L. A.; Smith, L. A.; Kaplan, D. T.

2001-12-01

Many dynamical systems present long-range correlations. Physically, these systems vary from biological to economical, including geological or urban systems. Important geophysical candidates for this type of behaviour include weather (or climate) and earthquake sequences. Persistence is characterised by slowly decaying correlation function; that, in theory, never dies out. The Persistence exponent reflects the degree of memory in the system and much effort has been expended creating and analysing methods that successfully estimate this parameter and model data that exhibits persistence. The most widely used methods for generating long correlated time series are not dynamical systems in the time domain, but instead are derived from a given spectral density. Little attention has been drawn to modelling persistence in the time domain. The time domain approach has the advantage that an observation at certain time can be calculated using previous observations which is particularly suitable when investigating the predictability of a long memory process. We will describe two of these methods in the time domain. One is a traditional approach using fractional ARIMA (autoregressive and moving average) models; the second uses a novel approach to extending a given series using random Fourier basis functions. The statistical quality of the two methods is compared, and they are contrasted with weather data which shows, reportedly, persistence. The suitability of this approach both for estimating predictability and for making predictions is discussed.

Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Hye-Mi; Lee, Myong-In; Min, Young-Mi

2017-01-01

This study aims at predicting the seasonal number of typhoons (TY) over the western North Pacific with an Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME)-based dynamical-statistical hybrid model. The hybrid model uses the statistical relationship between the number of TY during the typhoon season (July-October) and the large-scale key predictors forecasted by APCC MME for the same season. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates high prediction skill, with a correlation of 0.67 between the hindcasts and observation for 1982-2008. The cross validation from the hybrid model with individual models participating in MME indicates that there is no single model which consistently outperforms the other models in predicting typhoon number. Although the forecast skill of MME is not always the highest compared to that of each individual model, the skill of MME presents rather higher averaged correlations and small variance of correlations. Given large set of ensemble members from multi-models, a relative operating characteristic score reveals an 82 % (above-) and 78 % (below-normal) improvement for the probabilistic prediction of the number of TY. It implies that there is 82 % (78 %) probability that the forecasts can successfully discriminate between above normal (below-normal) from other years. The forecast skill of the hybrid model for the past 7 years (2002-2008) is more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. Using large set of ensemble members from multi-models, the APCC MME could provide useful deterministic and probabilistic seasonal typhoon forecasts to the end-users in particular, the residents of tropical cyclone-prone areas in the Asia-Pacific region.

White light emitting diode as potential replacement of tungsten-halogen lamp for visible spectroscopy system: a case study in the measurement of mango qualities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiong, W. L.; Omar, A. F.

2017-07-01

Non-destructive technique based on visible (VIS) spectroscopy using light emitting diode (LED) as lighting was used for evaluation of the internal quality of mango fruit. The objective of this study was to investigate feasibility of white LED as lighting in spectroscopic instrumentation to predict the acidity and soluble solids content of intact Sala Mango. The reflectance spectra of the mango samples were obtained and measured in the visible range (400-700 nm) using VIS spectroscopy illuminated under different white LEDs and tungsten-halogen lamp (pro lamp). Regression models were developed by multiple linear regression to establish the relationship between spectra and internal quality. Direct calibration transfer procedure was then applied between master and slave lighting to check on the acidity prediction results after transfer. Determination of mango acidity under white LED lighting was successfully performed through VIS spectroscopy using multiple linear regression but otherwise for soluble solids content. Satisfactory results were obtained for calibration transfer between LEDs with different correlated colour temperature indicated this technique was successfully used in spectroscopy measurement between two similar light sources in prediction of internal quality of mango.

A model of ecological and evolutionary consequences of color polymorphism.

PubMed

Forsman, Anders; Ahnesjö, Jonas; Caesar, Sofia; Karlsson, Magnus

2008-01-01

We summarize direct and indirect effects on fitness components of animal color pattern and present a synthesis of theories concerning the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of chromatic multiple niche polymorphisms. Previous endeavors have aimed primarily at identifying conditions that promote the evolution and maintenance of polymorphisms. We consider in a conceptual model also the reciprocal influence of color polymorphism on population processes and propose that polymorphism entails selective advantages that may promote the ecological success of polymorphic species. The model begins with an evolutionary branching event from mono- to polymorphic condition that, under the influence of correlational selection, is predicted to promote the evolution of physical integration of coloration and other traits (cf. multi-trait coevolution and complex phenotypes). We propose that the coexistence within a population of alternative ecomorphs with coadapted gene complexes promotes utilization of diverse environmental resources, population stability and persistence, colonization success, and range expansions, and enhances the evolutionary potential and speciation. Conversely, we predict polymorphic populations to be less vulnerable to environmental change and at lower risk of range contractions and extinctions compared with monomorphic populations. We offer brief suggestions as to how these falsifiable predictions may be tested.

Managerial leadership assessment - Personality correlates of and sex differences in ratings by leaders, peers, and followers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Robert H.; Wilhelm, John

1989-01-01

A performance appraisal was conducted at a Fortune 500 airline. Evaluations of each manager were taken from his or her management, peers and subordinates. These ratings were related to personality clusters revealing patterns for males similar to those found between personality and performance in pilot populations. A case is made that piloting aircraft requires similar skills to managing other complex enterprises and that similar profiles predict success in each.

Predicting colloid transport through saturated porous media: A critical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnar, Ian L.; Johnson, William P.; Gerhard, Jason I.; Willson, Clinton S.; O'Carroll, Denis M.

2015-09-01

Understanding and predicting colloid transport and retention in water-saturated porous media is important for the protection of human and ecological health. Early applications of colloid transport research before the 1990s included the removal of pathogens in granular drinking water filters. Since then, interest has expanded significantly to include such areas as source zone protection of drinking water systems and injection of nanometals for contaminated site remediation. This review summarizes predictive tools for colloid transport from the pore to field scales. First, we review experimental breakthrough and retention of colloids under favorable and unfavorable colloid/collector interactions (i.e., no significant and significant colloid-surface repulsion, respectively). Second, we review the continuum-scale modeling strategies used to describe observed transport behavior. Third, we review the following two components of colloid filtration theory: (i) mechanistic force/torque balance models of pore-scale colloid trajectories and (ii) approximating correlation equations used to predict colloid retention. The successes and limitations of these approaches for favorable conditions are summarized, as are recent developments to predict colloid retention under the unfavorable conditions particularly relevant to environmental applications. Fourth, we summarize the influences of physical and chemical heterogeneities on colloid transport and avenues for their prediction. Fifth, we review the upscaling of mechanistic model results to rate constants for use in continuum models of colloid behavior at the column and field scales. Overall, this paper clarifies the foundation for existing knowledge of colloid transport and retention, features recent advances in the field, critically assesses where existing approaches are successful and the limits of their application, and highlights outstanding challenges and future research opportunities. These challenges and opportunities include improving mechanistic descriptions, and subsequent correlation equations, for nanoparticle (i.e., Brownian particle) transport through soil, developing mechanistic descriptions of colloid retention in so-called "unfavorable" conditions via methods such as the "discrete heterogeneity" approach, and employing imaging techniques such as X-ray tomography to develop realistic expressions for grain topology and mineral distribution that can aid the development of these mechanistic approaches.

Demystifying Multitask Deep Neural Networks for Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships.

PubMed

Xu, Yuting; Ma, Junshui; Liaw, Andy; Sheridan, Robert P; Svetnik, Vladimir

2017-10-23

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are complex computational models that have found great success in many artificial intelligence applications, such as computer vision1,2 and natural language processing.3,4 In the past four years, DNNs have also generated promising results for quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) tasks.5,6 Previous work showed that DNNs can routinely make better predictions than traditional methods, such as random forests, on a diverse collection of QSAR data sets. It was also found that multitask DNN models-those trained on and predicting multiple QSAR properties simultaneously-outperform DNNs trained separately on the individual data sets in many, but not all, tasks. To date there has been no satisfactory explanation of why the QSAR of one task embedded in a multitask DNN can borrow information from other unrelated QSAR tasks. Thus, using multitask DNNs in a way that consistently provides a predictive advantage becomes a challenge. In this work, we explored why multitask DNNs make a difference in predictive performance. Our results show that during prediction a multitask DNN does borrow "signal" from molecules with similar structures in the training sets of the other tasks. However, whether this borrowing leads to better or worse predictive performance depends on whether the activities are correlated. On the basis of this, we have developed a strategy to use multitask DNNs that incorporate prior domain knowledge to select training sets with correlated activities, and we demonstrate its effectiveness on several examples.

Model-based vision for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaconas, Karen; Nashman, Marilyn; Lumia, Ronald

1992-01-01

This paper describes a method for tracking moving image features by combining spatial and temporal edge information with model based feature information. The algorithm updates the two-dimensional position of object features by correlating predicted model features with current image data. The results of the correlation process are used to compute an updated model. The algorithm makes use of a high temporal sampling rate with respect to spatial changes of the image features and operates in a real-time multiprocessing environment. Preliminary results demonstrate successful tracking for image feature velocities between 1.1 and 4.5 pixels every image frame. This work has applications for docking, assembly, retrieval of floating objects and a host of other space-related tasks.

Investigation of spray characteristics for flashing injection of fuels containing dissolved air and superheated fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, A. S. P.; Chen, L. D.; Faeth, G. M.

1982-01-01

The flow, atomization and spreading of flashing injector flowing liquids containing dissolved gases (jet/air) as well as superheated liquids (Freon II) were considered. The use of a two stage expansion process separated by an expansion chamber, ws found to be beneficial for flashing injection particularly for dissolved gas systems. Both locally homogeneous and separated flow models provided good predictions of injector flow properties. Conventional correlations for drop sizes from pressure atomized and airblast injectors were successfully modified, using the separated flow model to prescribe injector exit conditions, to correlate drop size measurements. Additional experimental results are provided for spray angle and combustion properties of sprays from flashing injectors.

Does Technical Success of Angioplasty in Dysfunctional Hemodialysis Accesses Correlate with Access Patency?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sidhu, Arshdeep; Tan, Kong T.; Noel-Lamy, Maxime

2016-10-15

PurposeTo study if <30 % residual stenosis post angioplasty (PTA) correlates with primary access circuit patency, and if any variables predict technical success.Materials and MethodsA prospective observational study was performed between January 2009 and December 2012, wherein 76 patients underwent 154 PTA events in 56 prosthetic grafts (AVG) and 98 autogenous fistulas (AVF). Data collected included patient age, gender, lesion location and laterality, access type and location, number of prior interventions, and transonic flow rates pre- and postintervention. Impact of technical outcome on access patency was assessed. Univariate logistic regression was used to assess the impact of variables on technical success withmore » significant factors assessed with a multiple variable model.ResultsTechnical success rates of PTA in AVFs and AVGs were 79.6 and 76.7 %, respectively. Technical failures of PTA were associated with an increased risk of patency loss among circuits with AVFs (p < 0.05), but not with AVGs (p = 0.7). In AVFs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and 6 months were 74.4 versus 61.9 % (p = 0.3) and 53.8 versus 23.8 % (p < 0.05), respectively. In AVGs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and six months were 72.1 versus 53.9 % (p = 0.5) and 33.6 versus 38.5 % (p = 0.8), respectively. Transonic flow rates did not significantly differ among technically successful or failed outcomes at one or three months.ConclusionTechnical failures of PTA had a significant impact on access patency among AVFs with a trend toward poorer access patency within AVGs.« less

Does Technical Success of Angioplasty in Dysfunctional Hemodialysis Accesses Correlate with Access Patency?

PubMed

Sidhu, Arshdeep; Tan, Kong T; Noel-Lamy, Maxime; Simons, Martin E; Rajan, Dheeraj K

2016-10-01

To study if <30 % residual stenosis post angioplasty (PTA) correlates with primary access circuit patency, and if any variables predict technical success. A prospective observational study was performed between January 2009 and December 2012, wherein 76 patients underwent 154 PTA events in 56 prosthetic grafts (AVG) and 98 autogenous fistulas (AVF). Data collected included patient age, gender, lesion location and laterality, access type and location, number of prior interventions, and transonic flow rates pre- and postintervention. Impact of technical outcome on access patency was assessed. Univariate logistic regression was used to assess the impact of variables on technical success with significant factors assessed with a multiple variable model. Technical success rates of PTA in AVFs and AVGs were 79.6 and 76.7 %, respectively. Technical failures of PTA were associated with an increased risk of patency loss among circuits with AVFs (p < 0.05), but not with AVGs (p = 0.7). In AVFs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and 6 months were 74.4 versus 61.9 % (p = 0.3) and 53.8 versus 23.8 % (p < 0.05), respectively. In AVGs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and six months were 72.1 versus 53.9 % (p = 0.5) and 33.6 versus 38.5 % (p = 0.8), respectively. Transonic flow rates did not significantly differ among technically successful or failed outcomes at one or three months. Technical failures of PTA had a significant impact on access patency among AVFs with a trend toward poorer access patency within AVGs.

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

Experiments and Analyses of Distributed Exhaust Nozzles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinzie, Kevin W.; Schein, David B.; Solomon, W. David, Jr.

2002-01-01

Experimental and analytical aeroacoustic properties of several distributed exhaust nozzle (DEN) designs are presented. Significant differences between the designs are observed and correlated back to Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flowfield predictions. Up to 20 dB of noise reduction on a spectral basis and 10 dB on an overall sound pressure level basis are demonstrated from the DEN designs compared to a round reference nozzle. The most successful DEN designs acoustically show a predicted thrust loss of approximately 10% compared to the reference nozzle. Characteristics of the individual mini-jet nozzles that comprise the DEN such as jet-jet shielding and coalescence are shown to play a major role in the noise signature.

Use of Admission Criteria to Predict Performance of Students in an Entry-Level Master's Program on Fieldwork Placements and in Academic Courses.

PubMed

Kirchner, G L; Stone, R G; Holm, M B

2001-01-01

The relationships among clinical outcomes, academic success, and predictors used to screen applicants for entrance into a Master in Occupational Therapy Program (MOT) were examined. The dependent variables were grade point average in occupational therapy courses (OT-GPA), client therapy outcomes at the clinic, and ratings of MOT students by Level II Fieldwork supervisors. Predictor variables included undergraduate GPA, scores on the Graduate Record Examination (GRE), and an essay. Both undergraduate GPA and scores on the GRE were found to predict OT-GPA. The analytical section of the GRE was also positively correlated with fieldwork supervisors' ratings of students.

Molecular Theory for Electrokinetic Transport in pH-Regulated Nanochannels.

PubMed

Kong, Xian; Jiang, Jian; Lu, Diannan; Liu, Zheng; Wu, Jianzhong

2014-09-04

Ion transport through nanochannels depends on various external driving forces as well as the structural and hydrodynamic inhomogeneity of the confined fluid inside of the pore. Conventional models of electrokinetic transport neglect the discrete nature of ionic species and electrostatic correlations important at the boundary and often lead to inconsistent predictions of the surface potential and the surface charge density. Here, we demonstrate that the electrokinetic phenomena can be successfully described by the classical density functional theory in conjunction with the Navier-Stokes equation for the fluid flow. The new theoretical procedure predicts ion conductivity in various pH-regulated nanochannels under different driving forces, in excellent agreement with experimental data.

Neural networks predict tomato maturity stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahn, Federico

1999-03-01

Almost 40% of the total horticultural produce exported from Mexico the USA is tomato, and quality is fundamental for maintaining the market. Many fruits packed at the green-mature stage do not mature towards a red color as they were harvested before achieving its physiological maturity. Tomato gassed for advancing maturation does not respond on those fruits, and repacking is necessary at terminal markets, causing losses to the producer. Tomato spectral signatures are different on each maturity stage and tomato size was poorly correlated against peak wavelengths. A back-propagation neural network was used to predict tomato maturity using reflectance ratios as inputs. Higher success rates were achieved on tomato maturity stage recognition with neural networks than with discriminant analysis.

Feedback-related brain activity predicts learning from feedback in multiple-choice testing.

PubMed

Ernst, Benjamin; Steinhauser, Marco

2012-06-01

Different event-related potentials (ERPs) have been shown to correlate with learning from feedback in decision-making tasks and with learning in explicit memory tasks. In the present study, we investigated which ERPs predict learning from corrective feedback in a multiple-choice test, which combines elements from both paradigms. Participants worked through sets of multiple-choice items of a Swahili-German vocabulary task. Whereas the initial presentation of an item required the participants to guess the answer, corrective feedback could be used to learn the correct response. Initial analyses revealed that corrective feedback elicited components related to reinforcement learning (FRN), as well as to explicit memory processing (P300) and attention (early frontal positivity). However, only the P300 and early frontal positivity were positively correlated with successful learning from corrective feedback, whereas the FRN was even larger when learning failed. These results suggest that learning from corrective feedback crucially relies on explicit memory processing and attentional orienting to corrective feedback, rather than on reinforcement learning.

A test of the facultative calibration/reactive heritability model of extraversion

PubMed Central

Haysom, Hannah J.; Mitchem, Dorian G.; Lee, Anthony J.; Wright, Margaret J.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Keller, Matthew C.; Zietsch, Brendan P.

2015-01-01

A model proposed by Lukaszewski and Roney (2011) suggests that each individual’s level of extraversion is calibrated to other traits that predict the success of an extraverted behavioural strategy. Under ‘facultative calibration’, extraversion is not directly heritable, but rather exhibits heritability through its calibration to directly heritable traits (“reactive heritability”). The current study uses biometrical modelling of 1659 identical and non-identical twins and their siblings to assess whether the genetic variation in extraversion is calibrated to variation in facial attractiveness, intelligence, height in men and body mass index (BMI) in women. Extraversion was significantly positively correlated with facial attractiveness in both males (r=.11) and females (r=.18), but correlations between extraversion and the other variables were not consistent with predictions. Further, twin modelling revealed that the genetic variation in facial attractiveness did not account for a substantial proportion of the variation in extraversion in either males (2.4%) or females (0.5%). PMID:26880866

Crash Simulation of a Vertical Drop Test of a Commuter-Class Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Karen E.; Fasanella, Edwin L.

2004-01-01

A finite element model of an ATR42-300 commuter-class aircraft was developed and a crash simulation was executed. Analytical predictions were correlated with data obtained from a 30-ft/s (9.14-m/s) vertical drop test of the aircraft. The purpose of the test was to evaluate the structural response of the aircraft when subjected to a severe, but survivable, impact. The aircraft was configured with seats, dummies, luggage, and other ballast. The wings were filled with 8,700 lb. (3,946 kg) of water to represent the fuel. The finite element model, which consisted of 57,643 nodes and 62,979 elements, was developed from direct measurements of the airframe geometry. The seats, dummies, luggage, fuel, and other ballast were represented using concentrated masses. The model was executed in LS-DYNA, a commercial code for performing explicit transient dynamic simulations. Predictions of structural deformation and selected time-history responses were generated. The simulation was successfully validated through extensive test-analysis correlation.

Zirconia and its allotropes; A Quantum Monte Carlo study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokisaari, Andrea; Benali, Anouar; Shin, Hyeondeok; Luo, Ye; Lopez Bezanilla, Alejandro; Ratcliff, Laura; Littlewood, Peter; Heinonen, Olle

With a high strength and stability at elevated temperatures, Zirconia (zirconium dioxide) is one of the best corrosion-resistant and refractive materials used in metallurgy, and is used in structural ceramics, catalytic converters, oxygen sensors, nuclear industry, and in chemically passivating surfaces. The wide range of applications of ZrO2 has motivated a large number of electronic structures studies of its known allotropes (monoclinic, tetragonal and cubic). Density Functional Theory has been successful at reproducing some of the fundamental properties of some of the allotropes, but these results remain dependent on the specific combination of exchange-correlation functional and type of pseudopotentials, making any type of structural prediction or defect analysis uncertain. Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) is a many-body quantum theory solving explicitly the electronic correlations, allowing reproducing and predicting materials properties with a limited number of controlled approximations. In this study, we use QMC to revisit the energetic stability of Zirconia's allotropes and compare our results with those obtained from density functional theory.

3D molecular descriptors important for clinical success.

PubMed

Kombo, David C; Tallapragada, Kartik; Jain, Rachit; Chewning, Joseph; Mazurov, Anatoly A; Speake, Jason D; Hauser, Terry A; Toler, Steve

2013-02-25

The pharmacokinetic and safety profiles of clinical drug candidates are greatly influenced by their requisite physicochemical properties. In particular, it has been shown that 2D molecular descriptors such as fraction of Sp3 carbon atoms (Fsp3) and number of stereo centers correlate with clinical success. Using the proteomic off-target hit rate of nicotinic ligands, we found that shape-based 3D descriptors such as the radius of gyration and shadow indices discriminate off-target promiscuity better than do Fsp3 and the number of stereo centers. We have deduced the relevant descriptor values required for a ligand to be nonpromiscuous. Investigating the MDL Drug Data Report (MDDR) database as compounds move from the preclinical stage toward the market, we have found that these shape-based 3D descriptors predict clinical success of compounds at preclinical and phase1 stages vs compounds withdrawn from the market better than do Fsp3 and LogD. Further, these computed 3D molecular descriptors correlate well with experimentally observed solubility, which is among well-known physicochemical properties that drive clinical success. We also found that about 84% of launched drugs satisfy either Shadow index or Fsp3 criteria, whereas withdrawn and discontinued compounds fail to meet the same criteria. Our studies suggest that spherical compounds (rather than their elongated counterparts) with a minimal number of aromatic rings may exhibit a high propensity to advance from clinical trials to market.

Limited Sampling Strategy for Accurate Prediction of Pharmacokinetics of Saroglitazar: A 3-point Linear Regression Model Development and Successful Prediction of Human Exposure.

PubMed

Joshi, Shuchi N; Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Parmar, Deven V

2018-03-01

Our aim was to develop and validate the extrapolative performance of a regression model using a limited sampling strategy for accurate estimation of the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve for saroglitazar. Healthy subject pharmacokinetic data from a well-powered food-effect study (fasted vs fed treatments; n = 50) was used in this work. The first 25 subjects' serial plasma concentration data up to 72 hours and corresponding AUC 0-t (ie, 72 hours) from the fasting group comprised a training dataset to develop the limited sampling model. The internal datasets for prediction included the remaining 25 subjects from the fasting group and all 50 subjects from the fed condition of the same study. The external datasets included pharmacokinetic data for saroglitazar from previous single-dose clinical studies. Limited sampling models were composed of 1-, 2-, and 3-concentration-time points' correlation with AUC 0-t of saroglitazar. Only models with regression coefficients (R 2 ) >0.90 were screened for further evaluation. The best R 2 model was validated for its utility based on mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error. Both correlations between predicted and observed AUC 0-t of saroglitazar and verification of precision and bias using Bland-Altman plot were carried out. None of the evaluated 1- and 2-concentration-time points models achieved R 2 > 0.90. Among the various 3-concentration-time points models, only 4 equations passed the predefined criterion of R 2 > 0.90. Limited sampling models with time points 0.5, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9323) and 0.75, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9375) were validated. Mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error were <30% (predefined criterion) and correlation (r) was at least 0.7950 for the consolidated internal and external datasets of 102 healthy subjects for the AUC 0-t prediction of saroglitazar. The same models, when applied to the AUC 0-t prediction of saroglitazar sulfoxide, showed mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error <30% and correlation (r) was at least 0.9339 in the same pool of healthy subjects. A 3-concentration-time points limited sampling model predicts the exposure of saroglitazar (ie, AUC 0-t ) within predefined acceptable bias and imprecision limit. Same model was also used to predict AUC 0-∞ . The same limited sampling model was found to predict the exposure of saroglitazar sulfoxide within predefined criteria. This model can find utility during late-phase clinical development of saroglitazar in the patient population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Test and Analysis Correlation of Form Impact onto Space Shuttle Wing Leading Edge RCC Panel 8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasanella, Edwin L.; Lyle, Karen H.; Gabrys, Jonathan; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly

2004-01-01

Soon after the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) began their study of the space shuttle Columbia accident, "physics-based" analyses using LS-DYNA were applied to characterize the expected damage to the Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) leading edge from high-speed foam impacts. Forensic evidence quickly led CAIB investigators to concentrate on the left wing leading edge RCC panels. This paper will concentrate on the test of the left-wing RCC panel 8 conducted at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and the correlation with an LS-DYNA analysis. The successful correlation of the LS-DYNA model has resulted in the use of LS-DYNA as a predictive tool for characterizing the threshold of damage for impacts of various debris such as foam, ice, and ablators onto the RCC leading edge for shuttle return-to-flight.

Association of Health Sciences Reasoning Test scores with academic and experiential performance.

PubMed

Cox, Wendy C; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E

2014-05-15

To assess the association of scores on the Health Sciences Reasoning Test (HSRT) with academic and experiential performance in a doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) curriculum. The HSRT was administered to 329 first-year (P1) PharmD students. Performance on the HSRT and its subscales was compared with academic performance in 29 courses throughout the curriculum and with performance in advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPEs). Significant positive correlations were found between course grades in 8 courses and HSRT overall scores. All significant correlations were accounted for by pharmaceutical care laboratory courses, therapeutics courses, and a law and ethics course. There was a lack of moderate to strong correlation between HSRT scores and academic and experiential performance. The usefulness of the HSRT as a tool for predicting student success may be limited.

The influence of speed abilities and technical skills in early adolescence on adult success in soccer: A long-term prospective analysis using ANOVA and SEM approaches

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Several talent development programs in youth soccer have implemented motor diagnostics measuring performance factors. However, the predictive value of such tests for adult success is a controversial topic in talent research. This prospective cohort study evaluated the long-term predictive value of 1) motor tests and 2) players’ speed abilities (SA) and technical skills (TS) in early adolescence. The sample consisted of 14,178 U12 players from the German talent development program. Five tests (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) were conducted and players’ height, weight as well as relative age were assessed at nationwide diagnostics between 2004 and 2006. In the 2014/15 season, the players were then categorized as professional (n = 89), semi-professional (n = 913), or non-professional players (n = 13,176), indicating their adult performance level (APL). The motor tests’ prognostic relevance was determined using ANOVAs. Players’ future success was predicted by a logistic regression threshold model. This structural equation model comprised a measurement model with the motor tests and two correlated latent factors, SA and TS, with simultaneous consideration for the manifest covariates height, weight and relative age. Each motor predictor and anthropometric characteristic discriminated significantly between the APL (p < .001; η2 ≤ .02). The threshold model significantly predicted the APL (R2 = 24.8%), and in early adolescence the factor TS (p < .001) seems to have a stronger effect on adult performance than SA (p < .05). Both approaches (ANOVA, SEM) verified the diagnostics’ predictive validity over a long-term period (≈ 9 years). However, because of the limited effect sizes, the motor tests’ prognostic relevance remains ambiguous. A challenge for future research lies in the integration of different (e.g., person-oriented or multilevel) multivariate approaches that expand beyond the “traditional” topic of single tests’ predictive validity and toward more theoretically founded issues. PMID:28806410

Academic Procrastination and Goal Accomplishment: A Combined Experimental and Individual Differences Investigation

PubMed Central

Gustavson, Daniel E.; Miyake, Akira

2017-01-01

This study examined the relationship between academic procrastination and goal accomplishment in two novel ways. First, we experimentally tested whether undergraduate students (N = 177) could reduce their academic procrastination over a course of three weeks after performing goal-related exercises to set so-called SMART goals and/or to prepare those students with specific strategies to resist their temptations (forming implementation intentions). Second, we conducted systematic regression analyses to examine whether academic procrastination at baseline uniquely predicts later goal-related outcomes, controlling for various correlated variables, including personality traits (e.g., impulsivity), motivational factors (e.g., motivation for the generated goals), and situational factors (e.g., memory for the goals). Results indicated that neither the SMART-goal nor implementation-intention intervention significantly reduced academic procrastination in the three-week interval, even when relevant moderating variables were examined. Initial levels of academic procrastination, however, were predictive of the success of accomplishing the goals generated during the initial exercises, above and beyond a wide range of other candidate correlates. These results provided new correlational evidence for the association between academic procrastination and goal accomplishment, but suggest a need for further research to understand what interventions are effective at reducing academic procrastination. PMID:28943742

Academic Procrastination and Goal Accomplishment: A Combined Experimental and Individual Differences Investigation.

PubMed

Gustavson, Daniel E; Miyake, Akira

2017-02-01

This study examined the relationship between academic procrastination and goal accomplishment in two novel ways. First, we experimentally tested whether undergraduate students ( N = 177) could reduce their academic procrastination over a course of three weeks after performing goal-related exercises to set so-called SMART goals and/or to prepare those students with specific strategies to resist their temptations (forming implementation intentions). Second, we conducted systematic regression analyses to examine whether academic procrastination at baseline uniquely predicts later goal-related outcomes, controlling for various correlated variables, including personality traits (e.g., impulsivity), motivational factors (e.g., motivation for the generated goals), and situational factors (e.g., memory for the goals). Results indicated that neither the SMART-goal nor implementation-intention intervention significantly reduced academic procrastination in the three-week interval, even when relevant moderating variables were examined. Initial levels of academic procrastination, however, were predictive of the success of accomplishing the goals generated during the initial exercises, above and beyond a wide range of other candidate correlates. These results provided new correlational evidence for the association between academic procrastination and goal accomplishment, but suggest a need for further research to understand what interventions are effective at reducing academic procrastination.

Usefulness of Doppler assessment of pulmonary vein and left atrial appendage flow following pulmonary vein isolation of chronic atrial fibrillation in predicting recovery of left atrial function.

PubMed

Donal, Erwan; Grimm, Richard A; Yamada, Hirotsugu; Kim, Yong Jin; Marrouche, Nassir; Natale, Andrea; Thomas, James D

2005-04-15

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a widespread condition that causes significant morbidity and mortality. Recently, pulmonary venous (PV) isolation using radiofrequency ablation has been used successfully to exclude the pulmonary venous ostia, resulting in correction of AF. Further, miniaturized high-frequency ultrasound phased-array transducers currently provide Doppler and 2-dimensional imaging during the ablation procedure. We examined atrial function and its determinants using intracardiac echocardiography before and after PV isolation in 45 patients who had chronic AF (56 +/- 11 years old). PV, left atrial (LA) appendage, and mitral and tricuspid flows were recorded. Recovery of booster pump function (defined by the presence of mitral inflow A wave, LA appendage a-wave, and PV A-reversal wave velocities >10 cm/s) was observed in 39 of 45 patients (86.6%). PV flow systolic wave before and after ablation correlated with the degree of LA booster pump function after PV isolation. An early systolic PV flow peak velocity >57.47 cm/s predicted "good" LA booster pump function recovery with 96% specificity. Diastolic LA appendage emptying in AF correlated (p <0.001) and predicted good LA booster pump function with 92% specificity for velocities >46.4 cm/s. Thus, monitoring LA function during PV isolation for chronic AF is feasible. Most patients recovered LA booster pump function immediately after PV isolation, and the degree of recovery correlated with LA reservoir function. Preserved reservoir function during AF is predictive of satisfactory recovery of booster pump function after PV isolation.

Bifidobacterial Succession and Correlation Networks in a Large Unselected Cohort of Mothers and Their Children

PubMed Central

Storrø, O.; Øien, T.; Johnsen, R.; Wilson, R.; Egeland, T.; Rudi, K.

2013-01-01

Bifidobacteria are a major microbial component of infant gut microbiota, which is believed to promote health benefits for the host and stimulate maturation of the immune system. Despite their perceived importance, very little is known about the natural development of and possible correlations between bifidobacteria in human populations. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed stool samples from a randomly selected healthy cohort of 87 infants and their mothers with >90% of vaginal delivery and nearly 100% breast-feeding at 4 months. Fecal material was sampled during pregnancy, at 3 and 10 days, at 4 months, and at 1 and 2 years after birth. Stool samples were predicted to be rich in the species Bifidobacterium adolescentis, B. bifidum, B. dentium, B. breve, and B. longum. Due to high variation, we did not identify a clear age-related structure at the individual level. Within the population as a whole, however, there were clear age-related successions. Negative correlations between the B. longum group and B. adolescentis were detected in adults and in 1- and 2-year-old children, whereas negative correlations between B. longum and B. breve were characteristic for newborns and 4-month-old infants. The highly structured age-related development of and correlation networks between bifidobacterial species during the first 2 years of life mirrors their different or competing nutritional requirements, which in turn may be associated with specific biological functions in the development of healthy gut. PMID:23124244

Predicting Gene Expression Level from Relative Codon Usage Bias: An Application to Escherichia coli Genome

PubMed Central

Roymondal, Uttam; Das, Shibsankar; Sahoo, Satyabrata

2009-01-01

We present an expression measure of a gene, devised to predict the level of gene expression from relative codon bias (RCB). There are a number of measures currently in use that quantify codon usage in genes. Based on the hypothesis that gene expressivity and codon composition is strongly correlated, RCB has been defined to provide an intuitively meaningful measure of an extent of the codon preference in a gene. We outline a simple approach to assess the strength of RCB (RCBS) in genes as a guide to their likely expression levels and illustrate this with an analysis of Escherichia coli (E. coli) genome. Our efforts to quantitatively predict gene expression levels in E. coli met with a high level of success. Surprisingly, we observe a strong correlation between RCBS and protein length indicating natural selection in favour of the shorter genes to be expressed at higher level. The agreement of our result with high protein abundances, microarray data and radioactive data demonstrates that the genomic expression profile available in our method can be applied in a meaningful way to the study of cell physiology and also for more detailed studies of particular genes of interest. PMID:19131380

Determinants of postfire recovery and succession in mediterranean-climate shrublands of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, J.E.; Fotheringham, C.J.; Baer-Keeley, M.

2005-01-01

Evergreen chaparral and semideciduous sage scrub shrublands were studied for five years after fires in order to evaluate hypothesized determinants of postfire recovery and succession. Residual species present in the immediate postfire environment dominated early succession. By the fifth year postfire, roughly half of the species were colonizers not present in the first year, but they comprised only 7-14% cover. Successional changes were evaluated in the context of four hypotheses: (1) event-dependent, (2) fire interval, (3) self-regulatory, and (4) environmental filter hypotheses. Characteristics specific to the fire event, for example, fire severity and annual fluctuations in precipitation, were important determinants of patterns of change in cover and density, supporting the "event-dependent" hypothesis. The "fire interval" hypothesis is also supported, primarily through the impact of short intervals on reproductive failure in obligate seeding shrubs and the impact of long intervals on fuel accumulation and resultant fire severity. Successional changes in woody cover were correlated with decreases in herb cover, indicating support for "self-regulatory" effects. Across this landscape there were strong "environmental filter" effects that resulted in complex patterns of postfire recovery and succession between coastal and interior associations of both vegetation types. Of relevance to fire managers is the finding that postfire recovery patterns are substantially slower in the interior sage scrub formations, and thus require different management strategies than coastal formations. Also, in sage scrub (but not chaparral), prefire stand age is positively correlated with fire severity, and negatively correlated with postfire cover. Differential responses to fire severity suggest that landscapes with combinations of high and low severity may lead to enhanced biodiversity. Predicting postfire management needs is complicated by the fact that vegetation recovery is significantly controlled by patterns of precipitation. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

A study on a robot arm driven by three-dimensional trajectories predicted from non-invasive neural signals.

PubMed

Kim, Yoon Jae; Park, Sung Woo; Yeom, Hong Gi; Bang, Moon Suk; Kim, June Sic; Chung, Chun Kee; Kim, Sungwan

2015-08-20

A brain-machine interface (BMI) should be able to help people with disabilities by replacing their lost motor functions. To replace lost functions, robot arms have been developed that are controlled by invasive neural signals. Although invasive neural signals have a high spatial resolution, non-invasive neural signals are valuable because they provide an interface without surgery. Thus, various researchers have developed robot arms driven by non-invasive neural signals. However, robot arm control based on the imagined trajectory of a human hand can be more intuitive for patients. In this study, therefore, an integrated robot arm-gripper system (IRAGS) that is driven by three-dimensional (3D) hand trajectories predicted from non-invasive neural signals was developed and verified. The IRAGS was developed by integrating a six-degree of freedom robot arm and adaptive robot gripper. The system was used to perform reaching and grasping motions for verification. The non-invasive neural signals, magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG), were obtained to control the system. The 3D trajectories were predicted by multiple linear regressions. A target sphere was placed at the terminal point of the real trajectories, and the system was commanded to grasp the target at the terminal point of the predicted trajectories. The average correlation coefficient between the predicted and real trajectories in the MEG case was [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]). In the EEG case, it was [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]). The success rates in grasping the target plastic sphere were 18.75 and 7.50 % with MEG and EEG, respectively. The success rates of touching the target were 52.50 and 58.75 % respectively. A robot arm driven by 3D trajectories predicted from non-invasive neural signals was implemented, and reaching and grasping motions were performed. In most cases, the robot closely approached the target, but the success rate was not very high because the non-invasive neural signal is less accurate. However the success rate could be sufficiently improved for practical applications by using additional sensors. Robot arm control based on hand trajectories predicted from EEG would allow for portability, and the performance with EEG was comparable to that with MEG.

Reductions in Cortico-Striatal Hyperconnectivity Accompany Successful Treatment of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder with Dorsomedial Prefrontal rTMS

PubMed Central

Dunlop, Katharine; Woodside, Blake; Olmsted, Marion; Colton, Patricia; Giacobbe, Peter; Downar, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a disabling illness with high rates of nonresponse to conventional treatments. OCD pathophysiology is believed to involve abnormalities in cortico-striatal-thalamic-cortical circuits through regions such as dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and ventral striatum. These regions may constitute therapeutic targets for neuromodulation treatments, such as repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). However, the neurobiological predictors and correlates of successful rTMS treatment for OCD are unclear. Here, we used resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify neural predictors and correlates of response to 20–30 sessions of bilateral 10 Hz dmPFC-rTMS in 20 treatment-resistant OCD patients, with 40 healthy controls as baseline comparators. A region of interest in the dmPFC was used to generate whole-brain functional connectivity maps pre-treatment and post treatment. Ten of 20 patients met the response criteria (⩾50% improvement on Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, YBOCS); response to dmPFC-rTMS was sharply bimodal. dmPFC-rTMS responders had higher dmPFC-ventral striatal connectivity at baseline. The degree of reduction in this connectivity, from pre- to post-treatment, correlated to the degree of YBOCS symptomatic improvement. Baseline clinical and psychometric data did not predict treatment response. In summary, reductions in fronto-striatal hyperconnectivity were associated with treatment response to dmPFC-rTMS in OCD. This finding is consistent with previous fMRI studies of deep brain stimulation in OCD, but opposite to previous reports on mechanisms of dmPFC-rTMS in major depression. fMRI could prove useful in predicting the response to dmPFC-rTMS in OCD. PMID:26440813

Reductions in Cortico-Striatal Hyperconnectivity Accompany Successful Treatment of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder with Dorsomedial Prefrontal rTMS.

PubMed

Dunlop, Katharine; Woodside, Blake; Olmsted, Marion; Colton, Patricia; Giacobbe, Peter; Downar, Jonathan

2016-04-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a disabling illness with high rates of nonresponse to conventional treatments. OCD pathophysiology is believed to involve abnormalities in cortico-striatal-thalamic-cortical circuits through regions such as dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and ventral striatum. These regions may constitute therapeutic targets for neuromodulation treatments, such as repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). However, the neurobiological predictors and correlates of successful rTMS treatment for OCD are unclear. Here, we used resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify neural predictors and correlates of response to 20-30 sessions of bilateral 10 Hz dmPFC-rTMS in 20 treatment-resistant OCD patients, with 40 healthy controls as baseline comparators. A region of interest in the dmPFC was used to generate whole-brain functional connectivity maps pre-treatment and post treatment. Ten of 20 patients met the response criteria (⩾50% improvement on Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, YBOCS); response to dmPFC-rTMS was sharply bimodal. dmPFC-rTMS responders had higher dmPFC-ventral striatal connectivity at baseline. The degree of reduction in this connectivity, from pre- to post-treatment, correlated to the degree of YBOCS symptomatic improvement. Baseline clinical and psychometric data did not predict treatment response. In summary, reductions in fronto-striatal hyperconnectivity were associated with treatment response to dmPFC-rTMS in OCD. This finding is consistent with previous fMRI studies of deep brain stimulation in OCD, but opposite to previous reports on mechanisms of dmPFC-rTMS in major depression. fMRI could prove useful in predicting the response to dmPFC-rTMS in OCD.

Music therapy career aptitude and generalized self-efficacy in music therapy students.

PubMed

Lim, Hayoung A; Befi, Cathy M

2014-01-01

While the Music Therapy Career Aptitude Test (MTCAT) provides a measure of student aptitude, measures of perceived self-efficacy may provide additional information about a students' suitability for a music therapy career. As a first step in determining whether future studies examining combined scores from the MTCAT and the Generalized Self-Efficacy (GSE) scale would be useful to help predict academic success in music therapy, we explored the internal reliability of these two measures in a sample of undergraduate students, and the relationship (concurrent validity) of the measures to one another. Eighty undergraduate music therapy students (14 male; 66 female) completed the MTCAT and GSE. To determine internal reliability we conducted tests of normality and calculated Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha for each measure. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to ascertain the strength of the relationship between the MTCAT and GSE. MTCAT scores were normally distributed and had high internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.706). GSE scores were not normally distributed, but had high internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.748). The correlation coefficient analysis revealed that MTCAT and GSE scores were moderately correlated ((r = 0.426, p < 0.0001). MTCAT scores can be used to partially determine perceived self-efficacy in undergraduate music therapy students; however, a more complete picture of student suitability for music therapy may be determined by administering the GSE alongside the MTCAT. Future studies are needed to determine whether combined MTCAT and GSE scores can be used to predict student success in an undergraduate music therapy program. © the American Music Therapy Association 2014. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Fine reservoir structure modeling based upon 3D visualized stratigraphic correlation between horizontal wells: methodology and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chenghua, Ou; Chaochun, Li; Siyuan, Huang; Sheng, James J.; Yuan, Xu

2017-12-01

As the platform-based horizontal well production mode has been widely applied in petroleum industry, building a reliable fine reservoir structure model by using horizontal well stratigraphic correlation has become very important. Horizontal wells usually extend between the upper and bottom boundaries of the target formation, with limited penetration points. Using these limited penetration points to conduct well deviation correction means the formation depth information obtained is not accurate, which makes it hard to build a fine structure model. In order to solve this problem, a method of fine reservoir structure modeling, based on 3D visualized stratigraphic correlation among horizontal wells, is proposed. This method can increase the accuracy when estimating the depth of the penetration points, and can also effectively predict the top and bottom interfaces in the horizontal penetrating section. Moreover, this method will greatly increase not only the number of points of depth data available, but also the accuracy of these data, which achieves the goal of building a reliable fine reservoir structure model by using the stratigraphic correlation among horizontal wells. Using this method, four 3D fine structure layer models have been successfully built of a specimen shale gas field with platform-based horizontal well production mode. The shale gas field is located to the east of Sichuan Basin, China; the successful application of the method has proven its feasibility and reliability.

Prediction of protein secondary structure content for the twilight zone sequences.

PubMed

Homaeian, Leila; Kurgan, Lukasz A; Ruan, Jishou; Cios, Krzysztof J; Chen, Ke

2007-11-15

Secondary protein structure carries information about local structural arrangements, which include three major conformations: alpha-helices, beta-strands, and coils. Significant majority of successful methods for prediction of the secondary structure is based on multiple sequence alignment. However, multiple alignment fails to provide accurate results when a sequence comes from the twilight zone, that is, it is characterized by low (<30%) homology. To this end, we propose a novel method for prediction of secondary structure content through comprehensive sequence representation, called PSSC-core. The method uses a multiple linear regression model and introduces a comprehensive feature-based sequence representation to predict amount of helices and strands for sequences from the twilight zone. The PSSC-core method was tested and compared with two other state-of-the-art prediction methods on a set of 2187 twilight zone sequences. The results indicate that our method provides better predictions for both helix and strand content. The PSSC-core is shown to provide statistically significantly better results when compared with the competing methods, reducing the prediction error by 5-7% for helix and 7-9% for strand content predictions. The proposed feature-based sequence representation uses a comprehensive set of physicochemical properties that are custom-designed for each of the helix and strand content predictions. It includes composition and composition moment vectors, frequency of tetra-peptides associated with helical and strand conformations, various property-based groups like exchange groups, chemical groups of the side chains and hydrophobic group, auto-correlations based on hydrophobicity, side-chain masses, hydropathy, and conformational patterns for beta-sheets. The PSSC-core method provides an alternative for predicting the secondary structure content that can be used to validate and constrain results of other structure prediction methods. At the same time, it also provides useful insight into design of successful protein sequence representations that can be used in developing new methods related to prediction of different aspects of the secondary protein structure. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Magellanic penguin telomeres do not shorten with age with increased reproductive effort, investment, and basal corticosterone.

PubMed

Cerchiara, Jack A; Risques, Rosa Ana; Prunkard, Donna; Smith, Jeffrey R; Kane, Olivia J; Boersma, P Dee

2017-08-01

All species should invest in systems that enhance longevity; however, a fundamental adult life-history trade-off exists between the metabolic resources allocated to maintenance and those allocated to reproduction. Long-lived species will invest more in reproduction than in somatic maintenance as they age. We investigated this trade-off by analyzing correlations among telomere length, reproductive effort and output, and basal corticosterone in Magellanic penguins ( Spheniscus magellanicus ). Telomeres shorten with age in most species studied to date, and may affect adult survival. High basal corticosterone is indicative of stressful conditions. Corticosterone, and stress, has been linked to telomere shortening in other species. Magellanic penguins are a particularly good model organism for this question as they are an unusually long-lived species, exceeding their mass-adjusted predicted lifespan by 26%. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found adults aged 5 years to over 24 years of age had similar telomere lengths. Telomeres of adults did not shorten over a 3-year period, regardless of the age of the individual. Neither telomere length, nor the rate at which the telomeres changed over these 3 years, correlated with breeding frequency or investment. Older females also produced larger volume clutches until approximately 15 years old and larger eggs produced heavier fledglings. Furthermore, reproductive success ( chicks fledged/eggs laid ) is maintained as females aged. Basal corticosterone, however, was not correlated with telomere length in adults and suggests that low basal corticosterone may play a role in the telomere maintenance we observed. Basal corticosterone also declined during the breeding season and was positively correlated with the age of adult penguins. This higher basal corticosterone in older individuals, and consistent reproductive success, supports the prediction that Magellanic penguins invest more in reproduction as they age. Our results demonstrate that telomere maintenance may be a component of longevity even with increased reproductive effort, investment, and basal corticosterone.

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2011-01-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modeling of impulsive propellant reorientation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hochstein, John I.; Patag, Alfredo E.; Chato, David J.

1988-01-01

The impulsive propellant reorientation process is modeled using the (Energy Calculations for Liquid Propellants in a Space Environment (ECLIPSE) code. A brief description of the process and the computational model is presented. Code validation is documented via comparison to experimentally derived data for small scale tanks. Predictions of reorientation performance are presented for two tanks designed for use in flight experiments and for a proposed full scale OTV tank. A new dimensionless parameter is developed to correlate reorientation performance in geometrically similar tanks. Its success is demonstrated.

Plasma myostatin is only a weak predictor for weight maintenance in obese adults.

PubMed

Tsioga, M N; Oikonomou, D; Vittas, S; Kalscheuer, H; Roeder, E; Wintgens, K F; Nawroth, P P; Wolfrum, C; Rudofsky, G

2015-09-01

Predicting an individual's success in a non-surgical weight loss approach is a demanding need since obesity is becoming an epidemic burden. A possible predictive marker is myostatin, a member of the transforming growth factor b superfamily, which has been shown to be an important regulator of muscle homeostasis. In the present study, we analyzed myostatin as a marker to predict weight loss of patients that participated in a 2 phased weight reduction program, comprising a weight loss period of 12 weeks and a weight stabilization period of 40 weeks. Therefore, 62 obese individuals with a mean BMI of 40.6 kg/m(2) were included. Plasma myostatin was measured with ELISA at the beginning (T0), after weight loss (T1) and at the end of the program (T2). Although significant weight loss of -23.9±14.9 kg was achieved, myostatin did not change significantly during the program (T0>T1: p=0.46; T1>T2: p=0.70; T0>T2: p=0.57). Myostatin at baseline did neither negatively correlate with the achieved weight loss in the weight reduction phase (T0>T1: r=0.27, p=0.16) nor with weight loss during the whole program (T0>T2: r=0.20, p=0.29). Only a minor correlation with myostatin levels after weight loss with weight regain during maintenance period was detected. (T1>T2: r=-0.37, p=0.05). Plasma myostatin might be suitable in predicting weight regain after marked weight loss, but no association with weight loss was observed in patients undergoing a non-surgical weight loss program. Therefore, myostatin does not seem to be a predictor for success in non-surgical weight loss approaches. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Brain activity in the right-frontal pole and lateral occipital cortex predicts successful post-operatory outcome after surgery for anterior glenoumeral instability.

PubMed

Zanchi, Davide; Cunningham, Gregory; Lädermann, Alexandre; Ozturk, Mehmet; Hoffmeyer, Pierre; Haller, Sven

2017-03-29

Shoulder apprehension is more complex than a pure mechanical problem of the shoulder, creating a scar at the brain level that prevents the performance of specific movements. Surgery corrects for shoulder instability at the physical level, but a re-dislocation within the first year is rather common. Predicting which patient will be likely to have re-dislocation is therefore crucial. We hypothesized that the assessment of neural activity at baseline and follow-up is the key factor to predict the post-operatory outcome. 13 patients with shoulder apprehension (30.03 ± 7.64 years) underwent clinical and fMRI examination before and one year after surgery for shoulder dislocation contrasting apprehension cue videos and control videos. Data analyses included task-related general linear model (GLM) and correlations imaging results with clinical scores. Clinical examination showed decreased pain and increased shoulder functions for post-op vs. pre-op. Coherently, GLM results show decreased activation of the left pre-motor cortex for post-surgery vs. pre-surgery. Right-frontal pole and right-occipital cortex activity predicts good recovery of shoulder function measured by STT. Our findings demonstrate that beside physical changes, changes at the brain level also occur one year after surgery. In particular, decreased activity in pre-motor and orbito-frontal cortex is key factor for a successful post-operatory outcome.

Neuropeptide Y2 Receptor (NPY2R) Expression in Saliva Predicts Feeding Immaturity in the Premature Neonate

PubMed Central

Maron, Jill L.; Johnson, Kirby L.; Dietz, Jessica A.; Chen, Minghua L.; Bianchi, Diana W.

2012-01-01

Background The current practice in newborn medicine is to subjectively assess when a premature infant is ready to feed by mouth. When the assessment is inaccurate, the resulting feeding morbidities may be significant, resulting in long-term health consequences and millions of health care dollars annually. We hypothesized that the developmental maturation of hypothalamic regulation of feeding behavior is a predictor of successful oral feeding in the premature infant. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the gene expression of neuropeptide Y2 receptor (NPY2R), a known hypothalamic regulator of feeding behavior, in neonatal saliva to determine its role as a biomarker in predicting oral feeding success in the neonate. Methodology/Principal Findings Salivary samples (n = 116), were prospectively collected from 63 preterm and 13 term neonates (post-conceptual age (PCA) 26 4/7 to 41 4/7 weeks) from five predefined feeding stages. Expression of NPY2R in neonatal saliva was determined by multiplex RT-qPCR amplification. Expression results were retrospectively correlated with feeding status at time of sample collection. Statistical analysis revealed that expression of NPY2R had a 95% positive predictive value for feeding immaturity. NPY2R expression statistically significantly decreased with advancing PCA (Wilcoxon test p value<0.01), and was associated with feeding status (chi square p value  =  0.013). Conclusions/Significance Developmental maturation of hypothalamic regulation of feeding behavior is an essential component of oral feeding success in the newborn. NPY2R expression in neonatal saliva is predictive of an immature feeding pattern. It is a clinically relevant biomarker that may be monitored in saliva to improve clinical care and reduce significant feeding-associated morbidities that affect the premature neonate. PMID:22629465

Associations among arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and seedlings are predicted to change with tree successional status.

PubMed

Bachelot, Benedicte; Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert; Forero-Montaña, Jimena; Thompson, Jill; McGuire, Krista; Zimmerman, Jess; Swenson, Nathan G; Clark, James S

2018-03-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in the soil may influence tropical tree dynamics and forest succession. The mechanisms are poorly understood, because the functional characteristics and abundances of tree species and AM fungi are likely to be codependent. We used generalized joint attribute modeling to evaluate if AM fungi are associated with three forest community metrics for a sub-tropical montane forest in Puerto Rico. The metrics chosen to reflect changes during forest succession are the abundance of seedlings of different successional status, the amount of foliar damage on seedlings of different successional status, and community-weighted mean functional trait values (adult specific leaf area [SLA], adult wood density, and seed mass). We used high-throughput DNA sequencing to identify fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) in the soil. Model predictions showed that seedlings of mid- and late-successional species had less leaf damage when the 12 most common AM fungi were abundant compared to when these fungi were absent. We also found that seedlings of mid-successional species were predicted to be more abundant when the 12 most common AM fungi were abundant compared to when these fungi were absent. In contrast, early-successional tree seedlings were predicted to be less abundant when the 12 most common AM fungi were abundant compared to when these fungi were absent. Finally, we showed that, among the 12 most common AM fungi, different AM fungi were correlated with functional trait characteristics of early- or late-successional species. Together, these results suggest that early-successional species might not rely as much as mid- and late-successional species on AM fungi, and AM fungi might accelerate forest succession. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variable terrestrial GPS telemetry detection rates: Addressing the probability of successful acquisitions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ironside, Kirsten E.; Mattson, David J.; Choate, David; Stoner, David; Arundel, Terry; Hansen, Jered R.; Theimer, Tad; Holton, Brandon; Jansen, Brian; Sexton, Joseph O.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Peters, Michael

2017-01-01

Studies using global positioning system (GPS) telemetry rarely result in 100% fix success rates (FSR), which may bias datasets because data loss is systematic rather than a random process. Previous spatially explicit models developed to correct for sampling bias have been limited to small study areas, a small range of data loss, or were study-area specific. We modeled environmental effects on FSR from desert to alpine biomes, investigated the full range of potential data loss (0–100% FSR), and evaluated whether animal body position can contribute to lower FSR because of changes in antenna orientation based on GPS detection rates for 4 focal species: cougars (Puma concolor), desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). Terrain exposure and height of over story vegetation were the most influential factors affecting FSR. Model evaluation showed a strong correlation (0.88) between observed and predicted FSR and no significant differences between predicted and observed FSRs using 2 independent validation datasets. We found that cougars and canyon-dwelling bighorn sheep may select for environmental features that influence their detectability by GPS technology, mule deer may select against these features, and elk appear to be nonselective. We observed temporal patterns in missed fixes only for cougars. We provide a model for cougars, predicting fix success by time of day that is likely due to circadian changes in collar orientation and selection of daybed sites. We also provide a model predicting the probability of GPS fix acquisitions given environmental conditions, which had a strong relationship (r 2 = 0.82) with deployed collar FSRs across species.

Effect of posterior tibial tendon dysfunction on unipedal standing balance test.

PubMed

Kulig, Kornelia; Lee, Szu-Ping; Reischl, Stephen F; Noceti-DeWit, Lisa

2015-01-01

Foot pain and diminished functional capacity are characteristics of tibialis posterior tendon dysfunction (TPTD). This study tested the hypotheses that women with TPTD would have impaired performance of a unipedal standing balance test (USBT) and that balance performance would be related to the number of single limb heel raises (SLHR). Thirty-nine middle-aged women, 19 with early stage TPTD (stage I and II), were instructed to perform 2 tasks; a USBT and repeated SLHR. Balance success was defined as a 10-second stance. For those who were successful, center of pressure (COP) data in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) directions were recorded as a measure of postural sway. SLHR performance was divided into 3 bins (≤2; 3-9 and > 10 repetitions). The between-balance success on performing the SLHR test was analyzed using the Fisher's exact test (2 × 3). Independent t tests were used to compare between-group differences in postural sway. Relationship of postural sway to the number of heel raises was assessed using Spearman's rho. The success rate of the USBT was significantly lower in women with TPTD than the controls (47% vs 85%, P = .041). In addition, women with TPTD who completed the USBT exhibited increased AP COP displacement (14.0 ± 7.4 vs 8.4 ± 1.3 mm, P = .008), and a strong trend of increased ML COP displacement (8.3 ± 4.5 vs 6.1 ± 1.2 mm, P = .050). The success rate of USBT was correlated with the number of SLHR (P = .01). The AP and ML COP displacement were correlated with SLHR (r = -.538 and .495), respectively. Women with TPTD have difficulty in performing the USBT. Performance of the USBT and SLHR are highly correlated and predictive of each other. A unipedal balance test may be used as a proxy TPTD assessment tool to the heel raising test when pain prevents performance. Level III, case control study. © The Author(s) 2014.

Enthalpy measurement of coal-derived liquids. Final report, April 1981-September 1983. [517 to 10342 kPa; 340 to 664 K

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kidnay, A.J.; Yesavage, V.F.

This report summarizes the results of experimental measurements of enthalpies for quinoline using a freon boil-off flow calorimeter, and an investigation of the applicability of cubic equations of state to correlating the enthalpy of coal-liquids. In Part A the compound quinoline is discussed. Process flow in the flow calorimeter, operational problems, and equipment modifications are described. Procedural modifications, including a new sample purification procedure, are described. Part B discusses the correlational effort. This includes a discussion of past correlational work and the difficulties associated with a general correlation for coal liquid enthalpy. In addition experimental data and computer generated predictionsmore » are presented. Three equations of state were used to predict vapor pressures and enthalpies for ten pure component systems previously studied in the lab. In general, the results were encouraging. All three equations were found to be effective in predicting both enthalpies and vapor pressures. In addition, the equations worked well when fit to mixture enthalpies. The Modified SRK equation was found to be superior to the other equations and modeled all properties for both associating and nonassociating systems well. The Modified SRK equation did have a drawback in that it was not readily generalized since it required two parameters which must be fit to data for best results. In sum, it was shown that a four parameter equation of state could be used successfully to correlate the enthalpy of coal-liquid model compounds.« less

Sex Allocation and Reproductive Success in the Andromonoecious Perennial Solanum carolinense (Solanaceae). II. Paternity and Functional Gender.

PubMed

Elle, Elizabeth; Meagher, Thomas R

2000-12-01

According to Bateman's principle, male fitness in entomophilous plant species should be limited by mating opportunity, which is influenced by the size or number of flowers. We determined male-specific fitness consequences of floral phenotype in andromonoecious Solanum carolinense, examined the relationship between male and female reproductive success within plants, and evaluated the distribution of functional gender among plants. A maximum likelihood-based paternity analysis, based on multilocus allozyme phenotypes of parents and offspring from four experimental plots, was used to determine male reproductive success and its relationship to floral phenotype. Male success was enhanced by an increase in the proportion of male flowers produced but not by an increase in total flower number, even though all flowers contain male parts. Larger flower size increased male success in only one plot. Male and female reproductive success were negatively correlated, and plants varied in functional gender from completely female to completely male. This gender specialization may occur because hermaphroditic and male flowers differ in their ability to contribute to male and female success. Although sex allocation theory predicts a positive relationship between the size or number of plant parts and reproductive success, this study indicates that aspects of floral morphology that affect gender specialization should also be considered.

Predicting human age using regional morphometry and inter-regional morphological similarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xun-Heng; Li, Lihua

2016-03-01

The goal of this study is predicting human age using neuro-metrics derived from structural MRI, as well as investigating the relationships between age and predictive neuro-metrics. To this end, a cohort of healthy subjects were recruited from 1000 Functional Connectomes Project. The ages of the participations were ranging from 7 to 83 (36.17+/-20.46). The structural MRI for each subject was preprocessed using FreeSurfer, resulting in regional cortical thickness, mean curvature, regional volume and regional surface area for 148 anatomical parcellations. The individual age was predicted from the combination of regional and inter-regional neuro-metrics. The prediction accuracy is r = 0.835, p < 0.00001, evaluated by Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted ages and actual ages. Moreover, the LASSO linear regression also found certain predictive features, most of which were inter-regional features. The turning-point of the developmental trajectories in human brain was around 40 years old based on regional cortical thickness. In conclusion, structural MRI could be potential biomarkers for the aging in human brain. The human age could be successfully predicted from the combination of regional morphometry and inter-regional morphological similarity. The inter-regional measures could be beneficial to investigating human brain connectome.

Endocrine phenotype, reproductive success and survival in the great tit, Parus major.

PubMed

Ouyang, J Q; Sharp, P; Quetting, M; Hau, M

2013-09-01

A central goal in evolutionary ecology is to characterize and identify selection patterns on the optimal phenotype in different environments. Physiological traits, such as hormonal responses, provide important mechanisms by which individuals can adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions. It is therefore expected that selection shapes hormonal traits, but the strength and the direction of selection on plastic hormonal signals are still under investigation. Here, we determined whether, and in which way, selection is acting on the hormones corticosterone and prolactin by characterizing endocrine phenotypes and their relationship with fitness in free-living great tits, Parus major. We quantified variation in circulating concentrations of baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and in prolactin during the prebreeding (March) and the breeding season (May) for two consecutive years, and correlated these with reproductive success (yearly fledgling number) and overwinter survival in female and male individuals. In both years, individuals with high baseline corticosterone concentrations in March had the highest yearly fledgling numbers; while in May, individuals with low baseline corticosterone had the highest yearly reproductive success. Likewise, individuals that displayed strong seasonal plasticity in baseline corticosterone concentrations (high in March and low in May) had the highest reproductive success in each year. Prolactin concentrations were not related to reproductive success, but were positively correlated to the proximity to lay. Between-year plasticity in stress-induced corticosterone concentrations of males was related to yearly variation in food abundance, but not to overall reproductive success. These findings suggest that seasonally alternating directional selection is operating on baseline corticosterone concentrations in both sexes. The observed between-year consistency in selection patterns indicates that a one-time hormone sample in a given season can allow the prediction of individual fitness. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Predictors for successful PBSC collection on the fourth day of G-CSF-induced mobilization in allogeneic stem cell donors.

PubMed

van Oostrum, Anja; Zwaginga, Jaap Jan; Croockewit, Sandra; Overdevest, Jacqueline; Fechter, Mirjam; Ruiterkamp, Bart; Brand, Anneke; Netelenbos, Tanja

2017-12-01

Peripheral blood stem cells (PBSCs) used for allogeneic transplantation are collected by apheresis after pre-treatment of donors with G-CSF. Using modern apheresis devices stem cells can be collected more efficiently. It was studied whether collection on the 4th instead of the 5th day after initiation of G-CSF treatment might be feasible. Stem cell yields that could have been collected on day 4 were calculated in two cohorts treated with 10 µg/kg G-CSF once daily (n = 106, cohort I) or 5 µg/kg twice daily schedule (n = 85, cohort II). Harvests were predicted using the median collection efficiency (CE) of the apheresis machine and regarded successful when > 5.0 x10 6 CD34 +/ kg recipient body weight. Successful harvests at day 4 could have been obtained in only 22.6% and 41.2% of donors in cohort I and II respectively, while the expected successful collections on day 5 were 55.7% and 76.5%. Individual donor factors that correlated with a successful harvest on day 4 were weight, BMI, age, ratio donor/recipient weight and total G-CSF dose in cohort I, whereas ratio donor/recipient weight was the only significant predictor in cohort II. Donor weight, BMI and total G-CSF dose correlated positively with CD34 + values in the blood on day 4 in all donors. However, donor characteristics were not able to be used as strong predictors in daily practice. In conclusion, PBSC collection on day 4 will not result in a successful harvest in most stem cell donors, however using a twice daily G-CSF scheme increases the yield. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An appraisal of the classic forest succession paradigm with the shade tolerance index.

PubMed

Lienard, Jean; Florescu, Ionut; Strigul, Nikolay

2015-01-01

In this paper we revisit the classic theory of forest succession that relates shade tolerance and species replacement and assess its validity to understand patch-mosaic patterns of forested ecosystems of the USA. We introduce a macroscopic parameter called the "shade tolerance index" and compare it to the classic continuum index in southern Wisconsin forests. We exemplify shade tolerance driven succession in White Pine-Eastern Hemlock forests using computer simulations and analyzing approximated chronosequence data from the USDA FIA forest inventory. We describe this parameter across the last 50 years in the ecoregions of mainland USA, and demonstrate that it does not correlate with the usual macroscopic characteristics of stand age, biomass, basal area, and biodiversity measures. We characterize the dynamics of shade tolerance index using transition matrices and delimit geographical areas based on the relevance of shade tolerance to explain forest succession. We conclude that shade tolerance driven succession is linked to climatic variables and can be considered as a primary driving factor of forest dynamics mostly in central-north and northeastern areas in the USA. Overall, the shade tolerance index constitutes a new quantitative approach that can be used to understand and predict succession of forested ecosystems and biogeographic patterns.

Postmating sexual selection and the enigmatic jawed genitalia of Callosobruchus subinnotatus

PubMed Central

Rönn, Johanna Liljestrand; Schilthuizen, Menno; Arnqvist, Göran

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Insect genitalia exhibit rapid divergent evolution. Truly extraordinary structures have evolved in some groups, presumably as a result of postmating sexual selection. To increase our understanding of this phenomenon, we studied the function of one such structure. The male genitalia of Callosobruchus subinnotatus (Coleoptera: Bruchinae) contain a pair of jaw-like structures with unknown function. Here, we used phenotypic engineering to ablate the teeth on these jaws. We then experimentally assessed the effects of ablation of the genital jaws on mating duration, ejaculate weight, male fertilization success and female fecundity, using a double-mating experimental design. We predicted that copulatory wounding in females should be positively related to male fertilization success; however, we found no significant correlation between genital tract scarring in females and male fertilization success. Male fertilization success was, however, positively related to the amount of ejaculate transferred by males and negatively related to female ejaculate dumping. Ablation of male genital jaws did not affect male relative fertilization success but resulted in a reduction in female egg production. Our results suggest that postmating sexual selection in males indeed favors these genital jaws, not primarily through an elevated relative success in sperm competition but by increasing female egg production. PMID:28583926

Prediction of Significant Wave Heights in the Tropics at Sub-seasonal Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, R. P.; Shin, C. S.

2017-12-01

Skillfully predicting the 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) forecasts at 3 weeks lead-time over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans has been demonstrated using the WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model coupled to a modified version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). In this paper, we present results on the effect of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on such predictions. Forecasts initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008 are evaluated. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at 3 weeks lead-time is found over portions of the domain in both January and May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central Indian Ocean and northern western tropical Pacific, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean and western Pacific. The model also reproduces the spatial pattern of the inverse relationship between SWHA and sea level pressure anomalies during both composite El Niño and La Niña events at 3 weeks lead-time. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA in May over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea in composites of phases 2 and 6 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of MJO and ENSO. Analysis of the mechanisms for these relationships is described.

Binding pose and affinity prediction in the 2016 D3R Grand Challenge 2 using the Wilma-SIE method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogues, Hervé; Sulea, Traian; Gaudreault, Francis; Corbeil, Christopher R.; Purisima, Enrico O.

2018-01-01

The Farnesoid X receptor (FXR) exhibits significant backbone movement in response to the binding of various ligands and can be a challenge for pose prediction algorithms. As part of the D3R Grand Challenge 2, we tested Wilma-SIE, a rigid-protein docking method, on a set of 36 FXR ligands for which the crystal structures had originally been blinded. These ligands covered several classes of compounds. To overcome the rigid protein limitations of the method, we used an ensemble of publicly available structures for FXR from the PDB. The use of the ensemble allowed Wilma-SIE to predict poses with average and median RMSDs of 2.3 and 1.4 Å, respectively. It was quite clear, however, that had we used a single structure for the receptor the success rate would have been much lower. The most successful predictions were obtained on chemical classes for which one or more crystal structures of the receptor bound to a molecule of the same class was available. In the absence of a crystal structure for the class, observing a consensus binding mode for the ligands of the class using one or more receptor structures of other classes seemed to be indicative of a reasonable pose prediction. Affinity prediction proved to be more challenging with generally poor correlation with experimental IC50s (Kendall tau 0.3). Even when the 36 crystal structures were used the accuracy of the predicted affinities was not appreciably improved. A possible cause of difficulty is the internal energy strain arising from conformational differences in the receptor across complexes, which may need to be properly estimated and incorporated into the SIE scoring function.

Molecular evolutionary rates predict both extinction and speciation in temperate angiosperm lineages

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A positive relationship between diversification (i.e., speciation) and nucleotide substitution rates is commonly reported for angiosperm clades. However, the underlying cause of this relationship is often unknown because multiple intrinsic and extrinsic factors can affect the relationship, and these have confounded previous attempts infer causation. Determining which factor drives this oft-reported correlation can lend insight into the macroevolutionary process. Results Using a new database of 13 time-calibrated angiosperm phylogenies based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences, and controlling for extrinsic variables of life history and habitat, I evaluated several potential intrinsic causes of this correlation. Speciation rates (λ) and relative extinction rates (ε) were positively correlated with mean substitution rates, but were uncorrelated with substitution rate heterogeneity. It is unlikely that the positive diversification-substitution correlation is due to accelerated molecular evolution during speciation (e.g., via enhanced selection or drift), because punctuated increases in ITS rate (i.e., greater mean and variation in ITS rate for rapidly speciating clades) were not observed. Instead, fast molecular evolution likely increases speciation rate (via increased mutational variation as a substrate for selection and reproductive isolation) but also increases extinction (via mutational genetic load). Conclusions In general, these results predict that clades with higher background substitution rates may undergo successful diversification under new conditions while clades with lower substitution rates may experience decreased extinction during environmental stasis. PMID:20515493

Pulmonary Dead Space Fraction and Extubation Success in Children After Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Devor, Renee L; Kang, Paul; Wellnitz, Chasity; Nigro, John J; Velez, Daniel A; Willis, Brigham C

2018-04-01

1) Determine the correlation between pulmonary dead space fraction and extubation success in postoperative pediatric cardiac patients; and 2) document the natural history of pulmonary dead space fractions, dynamic compliance, and airway resistance during the first 72 hours postoperatively in postoperative pediatric cardiac patients. A retrospective chart review. Cardiac ICU in a quaternary care free-standing children's hospital. Twenty-nine with balanced single ventricle physiology, 61 with two ventricle physiology. None. We collected data for all pediatric patients undergoing congenital cardiac surgery over a 14-month period during the first 72 hours postoperatively as well as prior to extubation. Overall, patients with successful extubations had lower preextubation dead space fractions and shorter lengths of stay. Single ventricle patients had higher initial postoperative and preextubation dead space fractions. Two-ventricle physiology patients had higher extubation failure rates if the preextubation dead space fraction was greater than 0.5, whereas single ventricle patients had similar extubation failure rates whether preextubation dead space fractions were less than or equal to 0.5 or greater than 0.5. Additionally, increasing initial dead space fraction values predicted prolonged mechanical ventilation times. Airway resistance and dynamic compliance were similar between those with successful extubations and those who failed. Initial postoperative dead space fraction correlates with the length of mechanical ventilation in two ventricle patients but not in single ventricle patients. Lower preextubation dead space fractions are a strong predictor of successful extubation in two ventricle patients after cardiac surgery, but may not be as useful in single ventricle patients.

Imaging metal-like monoclinic phase stabilized by surface coordination effect in vanadium dioxide nanobeam

PubMed Central

Li, Zejun; Wu, Jiajing; Hu, Zhenpeng; Lin, Yue; Chen, Qi; Guo, Yuqiao; Liu, Yuhua; Zhao, Yingcheng; Peng, Jing; Chu, Wangsheng; Wu, Changzheng; Xie, Yi

2017-01-01

In correlated systems, intermediate states usually appear transiently across phase transitions even at the femtosecond scale. It therefore remains an open question how to determine these intermediate states—a critical issue for understanding the origin of their correlated behaviour. Here we report a surface coordination route to successfully stabilize and directly image an intermediate state in the metal-insulator transition of vanadium dioxide. As a prototype metal-insulator transition material, we capture an unusual metal-like monoclinic phase at room temperature that has long been predicted. Coordinate bonding of L-ascorbic acid molecules with vanadium dioxide nanobeams induces charge-carrier density reorganization and stabilizes metallic monoclinic vanadium dioxide, unravelling orbital-selective Mott correlation for gap opening of the vanadium dioxide metal–insulator transition. Our study contributes to completing phase-evolution pathways in the metal-insulator transition process, and we anticipate that coordination chemistry may be a powerful tool for engineering properties of low-dimensional correlated solids. PMID:28613281

Calculating the individual probability of successful ocriplasmin treatment in eyes with VMT syndrome: a multivariable prediction model from the EXPORT study.

PubMed

Paul, Christoph; Heun, Christine; Müller, Hans-Helge; Hoerauf, Hans; Feltgen, Nicolas; Wachtlin, Joachim; Kaymak, Hakan; Mennel, Stefan; Koss, Michael Janusz; Fauser, Sascha; Maier, Mathias M; Schumann, Ricarda G; Mueller, Simone; Chang, Petrus; Schmitz-Valckenberg, Steffen; Kazerounian, Sara; Szurman, Peter; Lommatzsch, Albrecht; Bertelmann, Thomas

2017-10-31

To evaluate predictive factors for the treatment success of ocriplasmin and to use these factors to generate a multivariate model to calculate the individual probability of successful treatment. Data were collected in a retrospective, multicentre cohort study. Patients with vitreomacular traction (VMT) syndrome without a full-thickness macular hole were included if they received an intravitreal injection (IVI) of ocriplasmin. Five factors (age, gender, lens status, presence of epiretinal membrane (ERM) formation and horizontal diameter of VMT) were assessed on their association with VMT resolution. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed to further analyse these factors and calculate the individual probability of successful treatment. 167 eyes of 167 patients were included. Univariate analysis revealed a significant correlation to VMT resolution for all analysed factors: age (years) (OR 0.9208; 95% CI 0.8845 to 0.9586; p<0.0001), gender (male) (OR 0.480; 95% CI 0.241 to 0.957; p=0.0371), lens status (phakic) (OR 2.042; 95% CI 1.054 to 3.958; p=0.0344), ERM formation (present) (OR 0.384; 95% CI 0.179 to 0.821; p=0.0136) and horizontal VMT diameter (µm) (OR 0.99812; 95% CI 0.99684 to 0.99941, p=0.0042). A significant multivariable logistic regression model was established with age and VMT diameter. Known predictive factors for VMT resolution after ocriplasmin IVI were confirmed in our study. We were able to combine them into a formula, ultimately allowing the calculation of an individual probability of treatment success with ocriplasmin in patients with VMT syndrome without FTHM. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Bioreactor design for successive culture of anchorage-dependent cells operated in an automated manner.

PubMed

Kino-Oka, Masahiro; Ogawa, Natsuki; Umegaki, Ryota; Taya, Masahito

2005-01-01

A novel bioreactor system was designed to perform a series of batchwise cultures of anchorage-dependent cells by means of automated operations of medium change and passage for cell transfer. The experimental data on contamination frequency ensured the biological cleanliness in the bioreactor system, which facilitated the operations in a closed environment, as compared with that in flask culture system with manual handlings. In addition, the tools for growth prediction (based on growth kinetics) and real-time growth monitoring by measurement of medium components (based on small-volume analyzing machinery) were installed into the bioreactor system to schedule the operations of medium change and passage and to confirm that culture proceeds as scheduled, respectively. The successive culture of anchorage-dependent cells was conducted with the bioreactor running in an automated way. The automated bioreactor gave a successful culture performance with fair accordance to preset scheduling based on the information in the latest subculture, realizing 79- fold cell expansion for 169 h. In addition, the correlation factor between experimental data and scheduled values through the bioreactor performance was 0.998. It was concluded that the proposed bioreactor with the integration of the prediction and monitoring tools could offer a feasible system for the manufacturing process of cultured tissue products.

Can Medical School Performance Predict Residency Performance? Resident Selection and Predictors of Successful Performance in Obstetrics and Gynecology

PubMed Central

Stohl, Hindi E.; Hueppchen, Nancy A.; Bienstock, Jessica L.

2010-01-01

Background During the evaluation process, Residency Admissions Committees typically gather data on objective and subjective measures of a medical student's performance through the Electronic Residency Application Service, including medical school grades, standardized test scores, research achievements, nonacademic accomplishments, letters of recommendation, the dean's letter, and personal statements. Using these data to identify which medical students are likely to become successful residents in an academic residency program in obstetrics and gynecology is difficult and to date, not well studied. Objective To determine whether objective information in medical students' applications can help predict resident success. Method We performed a retrospective cohort study of all residents who matched into the Johns Hopkins University residency program in obstetrics and gynecology between 1994 and 2004 and entered the program through the National Resident Matching Program as a postgraduate year-1 resident. Residents were independently evaluated by faculty and ranked in 4 groups according to perceived level of success. Applications from residents in the highest and lowest group were abstracted. Groups were compared using the Fisher exact test and the Student t test. Results Seventy-five residents met inclusion criteria and 29 residents were ranked in the highest and lowest quartiles (15 in highest, 14 in lowest). Univariate analysis identified no variables as consistent predictors of resident success. Conclusion In a program designed to train academic obstetrician-gynecologists, objective data from medical students' applications did not correlate with successful resident performance in our obstetrics-gynecology residency program. We need to continue our search for evaluation criteria that can accurately and reliably select the medical students that are best fit for our specialty. PMID:21976076

Distinctive Facial Cues Predict Leadership Rank and Selection.

PubMed

Re, Daniel E; Rule, Nicholas

2017-09-01

Facial appearance correlates with leadership, both in terms of who is chosen (leader selection) and how they do (leader success). Leadership theories suggest that exceptional individuals acquire positions as leaders. Exceptional traits can differ between domains, however, and so the qualities valued in leaders in one occupation may not match those valued among leaders in another. To test this, we compared the relationship between facial appearance and leadership across two domains: law firms and mafia families. Perceptions of power correlated with leadership among law executives whereas social skill correlated with leadership in organized crime. Critically, these traits were distinctive within their respective groups. Furthermore, an experimental test showed that the relative frequency of facial traits in a group can render them either an asset or liability. Perceived leadership ability is therefore enhanced by characteristics that appear unique among individuals who satisfy the basic criteria for their group.

Neuropsychological and MMPI correlates of patients' future employment characteristics.

PubMed

Newnan, O S; Heaton, R K; Lehman, R A

1978-04-01

Previous research has suggested that patients' neuropsychological test scores correlate not only with neurologic status but also with their success in coping with some of the demands of daily living. This study investigated the utility of such laboratory test scores in predicting several vocational variables. Patients who had recieved neuropsychological evaluations were recontacted and questioned about their employment over the previous 6 mo. Of the 78 individuals who participated, 25 had been chronically unemployed. The remaining 53 were asked about job stability, hours worked, and wages earned, and were administered the Minnsota Job Requirements Questionnaire. Patients' scores on the Halstead-Reitan Battery, the WAIS and the MMPI were highly correlated with employment status (employed or chronically unemployed), income, and skills required on the jobs held. The results suggest that these tests may have clinical utility in assessing patients' employability, as well as the types of jobs for which they are suited.

Correlations for Adolescent Resilience Scale with big five personality traits.

PubMed

Nakaya, Motoyuki; Oshio, Atsushi; Kaneko, Hitoshi

2006-06-01

Currently, individuals tend to encounter many unavoidable, painful events and hardships in the process of growth and development. To lead one's life adapting to these social conditions, it is necessary to maintain one's mental health even while experiencing challenging events; in other words, resilience is required. This study of 130 undergraduates focused on the Adolescent Resilience Scale which assesses capacity for successful adaptation despite challenging or threatening circumstances and examined correlations with scores on the Big Five Personality Inventory. A significant negative correlation of -.59 (p<.001) was noted for scores on the Adolescent Resilience Scale and the Neuroticism dimension of the Big Five Personality Inventory, accounting for 35% of the variance, and positive values with the Extraversion, Openness, and Conscientiousness dimensions (rs= .37, .40, .48, accounting for 14, 16, and 18% of the variance, respectively. Personalities of adolescents who have psychological traits leading to resilience may be partially predicted using these results.

Phonological awareness predicts activation patterns for print and speech

PubMed Central

Frost, Stephen J.; Landi, Nicole; Mencl, W. Einar; Sandak, Rebecca; Fulbright, Robert K.; Tejada, Eleanor T.; Jacobsen, Leslie; Grigorenko, Elena L.; Constable, R. Todd; Pugh, Kenneth R.

2009-01-01

Using fMRI, we explored the relationship between phonological awareness (PA), a measure of metaphonological knowledge of the segmental structure of speech, and brain activation patterns during processing of print and speech in young readers from six to ten years of age. Behavioral measures of PA were positively correlated with activation levels for print relative to speech tokens in superior temporal and occipito-temporal regions. Differences between print-elicited activation levels in superior temporal and inferior frontal sites were also correlated with PA measures with the direction of the correlation depending on stimulus type: positive for pronounceable pseudowords and negative for consonant strings. These results support and extend the many indications in the behavioral and neurocognitive literature that PA is a major component of skill in beginning readers and point to a developmental trajectory by which written language engages areas originally shaped by speech for learners on the path toward successful literacy acquisition. PMID:19306061

Feature Selection Methods for Zero-Shot Learning of Neural Activity

PubMed Central

Caceres, Carlos A.; Roos, Matthew J.; Rupp, Kyle M.; Milsap, Griffin; Crone, Nathan E.; Wolmetz, Michael E.; Ratto, Christopher R.

2017-01-01

Dimensionality poses a serious challenge when making predictions from human neuroimaging data. Across imaging modalities, large pools of potential neural features (e.g., responses from particular voxels, electrodes, and temporal windows) have to be related to typically limited sets of stimuli and samples. In recent years, zero-shot prediction models have been introduced for mapping between neural signals and semantic attributes, which allows for classification of stimulus classes not explicitly included in the training set. While choices about feature selection can have a substantial impact when closed-set accuracy, open-set robustness, and runtime are competing design objectives, no systematic study of feature selection for these models has been reported. Instead, a relatively straightforward feature stability approach has been adopted and successfully applied across models and imaging modalities. To characterize the tradeoffs in feature selection for zero-shot learning, we compared correlation-based stability to several other feature selection techniques on comparable data sets from two distinct imaging modalities: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Electrocorticography. While most of the feature selection methods resulted in similar zero-shot prediction accuracies and spatial/spectral patterns of selected features, there was one exception; A novel feature/attribute correlation approach was able to achieve those accuracies with far fewer features, suggesting the potential for simpler prediction models that yield high zero-shot classification accuracy. PMID:28690513

Mars Science Laboratory Rover System Thermal Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novak, Keith S.; Kempenaar, Joshua E.; Liu, Yuanming; Bhandari, Pradeep; Dudik, Brenda A.

2012-01-01

On November 26, 2011, NASA launched a large (900 kg) rover as part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission to Mars. The MSL rover is scheduled to land on Mars on August 5, 2012. Prior to launch, the Rover was successfully operated in simulated mission extreme environments during a 16-day long Rover System Thermal Test (STT). This paper describes the MSL Rover STT, test planning, test execution, test results, thermal model correlation and flight predictions. The rover was tested in the JPL 25-Foot Diameter Space Simulator Facility at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The Rover operated in simulated Cruise (vacuum) and Mars Surface environments (8 Torr nitrogen gas) with mission extreme hot and cold boundary conditions. A Xenon lamp solar simulator was used to impose simulated solar loads on the rover during a bounding hot case and during a simulated Mars diurnal test case. All thermal hardware was exercised and performed nominally. The Rover Heat Rejection System, a liquid-phase fluid loop used to transport heat in and out of the electronics boxes inside the rover chassis, performed better than predicted. Steady state and transient data were collected to allow correlation of analytical thermal models. These thermal models were subsequently used to predict rover thermal performance for the MSL Gale Crater landing site. Models predict that critical hardware temperatures will be maintained within allowable flight limits over the entire 669 Sol surface mission.

[Relationships of forest fire with lightning in Daxing' anling Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Lei, Xiao-Li; Zhou, Guang-Sheng; Jia, Bing-Rui; Li, Shuai

2012-07-01

Forest fire is an important factor affecting forest ecosystem succession. Recently, forest fire, especially forest lightning fire, shows an increasing trend under global warming. To study the relationships of forest fire with lightning is essential to accurately predict the forest fire in time. Daxing' anling Mountains is a region with high frequency of forest lightning fire in China, and an important experiment site to study the relationships of forest fire with lightning. Based on the forest fire records and the corresponding lightning and meteorological observation data in the Mountains from 1966 to 2007, this paper analyzed the relationships of forest fire with lightning in this region. In the period of 1966-2007, both the lightning fire number and the fired forest area in this region increased significantly. The meteorological factors affecting the forest lighting fire were related to temporal scales. At yearly scale, the forest lightning fire was significantly correlated with precipitation, with a correlation coefficient of -0.489; at monthly scale, it had a significant correlation with air temperature, the correlation coefficient being 0.18. The relationship of the forest lightning fire with lightning was also related to temporal scales. At yearly scale, there was no significant correlation between them; at monthly scale, the forest lightning fire was strongly correlated with lightning and affected by precipitation; at daily scale, a positive correlation was observed between forest lightning fire and lightning when the precipitation was less than 5 mm. According to these findings, a fire danger index based on ADTD lightning detection data was established, and a forest lightning fire forecast model was developed. The prediction accuracy of this model for the forest lightning fire in Daxing' anling Mountains in 2005-2007 was > 80%.

Multiscale Metabolic Modeling of C4 Plants: Connecting Nonlinear Genome-Scale Models to Leaf-Scale Metabolism in Developing Maize Leaves

PubMed Central

Bogart, Eli; Myers, Christopher R.

2016-01-01

C4 plants, such as maize, concentrate carbon dioxide in a specialized compartment surrounding the veins of their leaves to improve the efficiency of carbon dioxide assimilation. Nonlinear relationships between carbon dioxide and oxygen levels and reaction rates are key to their physiology but cannot be handled with standard techniques of constraint-based metabolic modeling. We demonstrate that incorporating these relationships as constraints on reaction rates and solving the resulting nonlinear optimization problem yields realistic predictions of the response of C4 systems to environmental and biochemical perturbations. Using a new genome-scale reconstruction of maize metabolism, we build an 18000-reaction, nonlinearly constrained model describing mesophyll and bundle sheath cells in 15 segments of the developing maize leaf, interacting via metabolite exchange, and use RNA-seq and enzyme activity measurements to predict spatial variation in metabolic state by a novel method that optimizes correlation between fluxes and expression data. Though such correlations are known to be weak in general, we suggest that developmental gradients may be particularly suited to the inference of metabolic fluxes from expression data, and we demonstrate that our method predicts fluxes that achieve high correlation with the data, successfully capture the experimentally observed base-to-tip transition between carbon-importing tissue and carbon-exporting tissue, and include a nonzero growth rate, in contrast to prior results from similar methods in other systems. PMID:26990967

Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Shingu, Satoru; Yamagata, Toshio

2005-11-01

Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.Hindcast results for the period 1982 2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9 12-month lead times.In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7 12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

The relationship between action anticipation and emotion recognition in athletes of open skill sports.

PubMed

Shih, Yu-Ling; Lin, Chia-Yen

2016-08-01

Action anticipation plays an important role in the successful performance of open skill sports, such as ball and combat sports. Evidence has shown that elite athletes of open sports excel in action anticipation. Most studies have targeted ball sports and agreed that information on body mechanics is one of the key determinants for successful action anticipation in open sports. However, less is known about combat sports, and whether facial emotions have an influence on athletes' action anticipation skill. It has been suggested that the understanding of intention in combat sports relies heavily on emotional context. Based on this suggestion, the present study compared the action anticipation performances of taekwondo athletes, weightlifting athletes, and non-athletes and then correlated these with their performances of emotion recognition. This study primarily found that accurate action anticipation does not necessarily rely on the dynamic information of movement, and that action anticipation performance is correlated with that of emotion recognition in taekwondo athletes, but not in weightlifting athletes. Our results suggest that the recognition of facial emotions plays a role in the action prediction in such combat sports as taekwondo.

Entanglement-secured single-qubit quantum secret sharing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scherpelz, P.; Resch, R.; Berryrieser, D.

In single-qubit quantum secret sharing, a secret is shared between N parties via manipulation and measurement of one qubit at a time. Each qubit is sent to all N parties in sequence; the secret is encoded in the first participant's preparation of the qubit state and the subsequent participants' choices of state rotation or measurement basis. We present a protocol for single-qubit quantum secret sharing using polarization entanglement of photon pairs produced in type-I spontaneous parametric downconversion. We investigate the protocol's security against eavesdropping attack under common experimental conditions: a lossy channel for photon transmission, and imperfect preparation of themore » initial qubit state. A protocol which exploits entanglement between photons, rather than simply polarization correlation, is more robustly secure. We implement the entanglement-based secret-sharing protocol with 87% secret-sharing fidelity, limited by the purity of the entangled state produced by our present apparatus. We demonstrate a photon-number splitting eavesdropping attack, which achieves no success against the entanglement-based protocol while showing the predicted rate of success against a correlation-based protocol.« less

Testing the relativistic precession model using low-frequency and kHz quasi-periodic oscillations in neutron star low-mass X-ray binaries with known spin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Doesburgh, Marieke; van der Klis, Michiel

2017-03-01

We analyse all available RXTE data on a sample of 13 low-mass X-ray binaries with known neutron star spin that are not persistent pulsars. We carefully measure the correlations between the centroid frequencies of the quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). We compare these correlations to the prediction of the relativistic precession model that, due to frame dragging, a QPO will occur at the Lense-Thirring precession frequency νLT of a test-particle orbit whose orbital frequency is the upper kHz QPO frequency νu. Contrary to the most prominent previous studies, we find two different oscillations in the range predicted for νLT that are simultaneously present over a wide range of νu. Additionally, one of the low-frequency noise components evolves into a (third) QPO in the νLT range when νu exceeds 600 Hz. The frequencies of these QPOs all correlate to νu following power laws with indices between 0.4 and 3.3, significantly exceeding the predicted value of 2.0 in 80 per cent of the cases (at 3 to >20σ). Also, there is no evidence that the neutron star spin frequency affects any of these three QPO frequencies, as would be expected for frame dragging. Finally, the observed QPO frequencies tend to be higher than the νLT predicted for reasonable neutron star specific moment of inertia. In the light of recent successes of precession models in black holes, we briefly discuss ways in which such precession can occur in neutron stars at frequencies different from test-particle values and consistent with those observed. A precessing torus geometry and other torques than frame dragging may allow precession to produce the observed frequency correlations, but can only explain one of the three QPOs in the νLT range.

Yeast Terminator Function Can Be Modulated and Designed on the Basis of Predictions of Nucleosome Occupancy.

PubMed

Morse, Nicholas J; Gopal, Madan R; Wagner, James M; Alper, Hal S

2017-11-17

The design of improved synthetic parts is a major goal of synthetic biology. Mechanistically, nucleosome occupancy in the 3' terminator region of a gene has been found to correlate with transcriptional expression. Here, we seek to establish a predictive relationship between terminator function and predicted nucleosome positioning to design synthetic terminators in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In doing so, terminators improved net protein output from these expression cassettes nearly 4-fold over their original sequence with observed increases in termination efficiency to 96%. The resulting terminators were indeed depleted of nucleosomes on the basis of mapping experiments. This approach was successfully applied to synthetic, de novo, and native terminators. The mode of action of these modifications was mainly through increased termination efficiency, rather than half-life increases, perhaps suggesting a role in improved mRNA maturation. Collectively, these results suggest that predicted nucleosome depletion can be used as a heuristic approach for improving terminator function, though the underlying mechanism remains to be shown.

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determination of heat capacity of ionic liquid based nanofluids using group method of data handling technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadi, Maryam

2018-01-01

In this study a group method of data handling model has been successfully developed to predict heat capacity of ionic liquid based nanofluids by considering reduced temperature, acentric factor and molecular weight of ionic liquids, and nanoparticle concentration as input parameters. In order to accomplish modeling, 528 experimental data points extracted from the literature have been divided into training and testing subsets. The training set has been used to predict model coefficients and the testing set has been applied for model validation. The ability and accuracy of developed model, has been evaluated by comparison of model predictions with experimental values using different statistical parameters such as coefficient of determination, mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The mean absolute percentage error of developed model for training and testing sets are 1.38% and 1.66%, respectively, which indicate excellent agreement between model predictions and experimental data. Also, the results estimated by the developed GMDH model exhibit a higher accuracy when compared to the available theoretical correlations.

Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sverjensky, Dimitri A.

Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO 2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall,more » my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.« less

Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.

1997-02-01

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.

PubMed

Supple, Megan Ann; Bragg, Jason G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Byrne, Margaret; Andrew, Rose L; Widdup, Abigail; Aitken, Nicola C; Borevitz, Justin O

2018-04-24

As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration. © 2018, Supple et al.

Appearance Matters: Neural Correlates of Food Choice and Packaging Aesthetics

PubMed Central

Van der Laan, Laura N.; De Ridder, Denise T. D.; Viergever, Max A.; Smeets, Paul A. M.

2012-01-01

Neuro-imaging holds great potential for predicting choice behavior from brain responses. In this study we used both traditional mass-univariate and state-of-the-art multivariate pattern analysis to establish which brain regions respond to preferred packages and to what extent neural activation patterns can predict realistic low-involvement consumer choices. More specifically, this was assessed in the context of package-induced binary food choices. Mass-univariate analyses showed that several regions, among which the bilateral striatum, were more strongly activated in response to preferred food packages. Food choices could be predicted with an accuracy of up to 61.2% by activation patterns in brain regions previously found to be involved in healthy food choices (superior frontal gyrus) and visual processing (middle occipital gyrus). In conclusion, this study shows that mass-univariate analysis can detect small package-induced differences in product preference and that MVPA can successfully predict realistic low-involvement consumer choices from functional MRI data. PMID:22848586

Multi-voxel patterns of visual category representation during episodic encoding are predictive of subsequent memory

PubMed Central

Kuhl, Brice A.; Rissman, Jesse; Wagner, Anthony D.

2012-01-01

Successful encoding of episodic memories is thought to depend on contributions from prefrontal and temporal lobe structures. Neural processes that contribute to successful encoding have been extensively explored through univariate analyses of neuroimaging data that compare mean activity levels elicited during the encoding of events that are subsequently remembered vs. those subsequently forgotten. Here, we applied pattern classification to fMRI data to assess the degree to which distributed patterns of activity within prefrontal and temporal lobe structures elicited during the encoding of word-image pairs were diagnostic of the visual category (Face or Scene) of the encoded image. We then assessed whether representation of category information was predictive of subsequent memory. Classification analyses indicated that temporal lobe structures contained information robustly diagnostic of visual category. Information in prefrontal cortex was less diagnostic of visual category, but was nonetheless associated with highly reliable classifier-based evidence for category representation. Critically, trials associated with greater classifier-based estimates of category representation in temporal and prefrontal regions were associated with a higher probability of subsequent remembering. Finally, consideration of trial-by-trial variance in classifier-based measures of category representation revealed positive correlations between prefrontal and temporal lobe representations, with the strength of these correlations varying as a function of the category of image being encoded. Together, these results indicate that multi-voxel representations of encoded information can provide unique insights into how visual experiences are transformed into episodic memories. PMID:21925190

Real-time evaluation of diffusion of the local anesthetic solution during peribulbar block using ultrasound imaging and clinical correlates of diffusion.

PubMed

Luyet, Cédric; Eng, Kenneth T; Kertes, Peter J; Avila, Arsenio; Muni, Rajeev H; McHardy, Paul

2012-01-01

The aims of this prospective observational study were to assess the incidence of intraconal spread during peribulbar (extraconal) anesthesia by real-time ultrasound imaging of the retro-orbital compartment and to determine whether a complete sensory and motor block (with akinesia) of the eye is directly related to the intraconal spread. Ultrasound imaging was performed in 100 patients who underwent a surgical procedure on the posterior segment of the eye. All patients received a peribulbar block using the inferolateral approach. Once the needle was in place, a linear ultrasound transducer was placed over the eyelid and the spread of local anesthetics was assessed during the injection (real time). Akinesia was assessed by a blinded observer 10 minutes after block placement. The incidence of intraconal spread and its correlation with a complete akinesia was measured. The overall block failure rate was 28% in terms of akinesia, and the rate of rescue blocks was 20%. Clear intraconal spread during injection of the local anesthetic mixture could be detected with ultrasound imaging in 61 of 100 patients. The positive predictive value for successful block when intraconal spread was detected was 98% (95% confidence interval, 91%-100%). The association between clear and no evidence of intraconal spread and effective block was statistically significant (χ test, P < 0.001). Ultrasound imaging provides information of local anesthetic spread within the retro-orbital space, which might assist in the prediction of block success.

DOCKTITE-a highly versatile step-by-step workflow for covalent docking and virtual screening in the molecular operating environment.

PubMed

Scholz, Christoph; Knorr, Sabine; Hamacher, Kay; Schmidt, Boris

2015-02-23

The formation of a covalent bond with the target is essential for a number of successful drugs, yet tools for covalent docking without significant restrictions regarding warhead or receptor classes are rare and limited in use. In this work we present DOCKTITE, a highly versatile workflow for covalent docking in the Molecular Operating Environment (MOE) combining automated warhead screening, nucleophilic side chain attachment, pharmacophore-based docking, and a novel consensus scoring approach. The comprehensive validation study includes pose predictions of 35 protein/ligand complexes which resulted in a mean RMSD of 1.74 Å and a prediction rate of 71.4% with an RMSD below 2 Å, a virtual screening with an area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of 0.81, and a significant correlation between predicted and experimental binding affinities (ρ = 0.806, R(2) = 0.649, p < 0.005).

Human oocyte developmental potential is predicted by mechanical properties within hours after fertilization

PubMed Central

Yanez, Livia Z.; Han, Jinnuo; Behr, Barry B.; Pera, Renee A. Reijo; Camarillo, David B.

2016-01-01

The causes of embryonic arrest during pre-implantation development are poorly understood. Attempts to correlate patterns of oocyte gene expression with successful embryo development have been hampered by the lack of reliable and nondestructive predictors of viability at such an early stage. Here we report that zygote viscoelastic properties can predict blastocyst formation in humans and mice within hours after fertilization, with >90% precision, 95% specificity and 75% sensitivity. We demonstrate that there are significant differences between the transcriptomes of viable and non-viable zygotes, especially in expression of genes important for oocyte maturation. In addition, we show that low-quality oocytes may undergo insufficient cortical granule release and zona-hardening, causing altered mechanics after fertilization. Our results suggest that embryo potential is largely determined by the quality and maturation of the oocyte before fertilization, and can be predicted through a minimally invasive mechanical measurement at the zygote stage. PMID:26904963

Magnitude and Temporal Variability of Inter-stimulus EEG Modulate the Linear Relationship Between Laser-Evoked Potentials and Fast-Pain Perception

PubMed Central

Li, Linling; Huang, Gan; Lin, Qianqian; Liu, Jia; Zhang, Shengli; Zhang, Zhiguo

2018-01-01

The level of pain perception is correlated with the magnitude of pain-evoked brain responses, such as laser-evoked potentials (LEP), across trials. The positive LEP-pain relationship lays the foundation for pain prediction based on single-trial LEP, but cross-individual pain prediction does not have a good performance because the LEP-pain relationship exhibits substantial cross-individual difference. In this study, we aim to explain the cross-individual difference in the LEP-pain relationship using inter-stimulus EEG (isEEG) features. The isEEG features (root mean square as magnitude and mean square successive difference as temporal variability) were estimated from isEEG data (at full band and five frequency bands) recorded between painful stimuli. A linear model was fitted to investigate the relationship between pain ratings and LEP response for fast-pain trials on a trial-by-trial basis. Then the correlation between isEEG features and the parameters of LEP-pain model (slope and intercept) was evaluated. We found that the magnitude and temporal variability of isEEG could modulate the parameters of an individual's linear LEP-pain model for fast-pain trials. Based on this, we further developed a new individualized fast-pain prediction scheme, which only used training individuals with similar isEEG features as the test individual to train the fast-pain prediction model, and obtained improved accuracy in cross-individual fast-pain prediction. The findings could help elucidate the neural mechanism of cross-individual difference in pain experience and the proposed fast-pain prediction scheme could be potentially used as a practical and feasible pain prediction method in clinical practice. PMID:29904336

Understanding reproducibility of human IVF traits to predict next IVF cycle outcome.

PubMed

Wu, Bin; Shi, Juanzi; Zhao, Wanqiu; Lu, Suzhen; Silva, Marta; Gelety, Timothy J

2014-10-01

Evaluating the failed IVF cycle often provides useful prognostic information. Before undergoing another attempt, patients experiencing an unsuccessful IVF cycle frequently request information about the probability of future success. Here, we introduced the concept of reproducibility and formulae to predict the next IVF cycle outcome. The experimental design was based on the retrospective review of IVF cycle data from 2006 to 2013 in two different IVF centers and statistical analysis. The reproducibility coefficients (r) of IVF traits including number of oocytes retrieved, oocyte maturity, fertilization, embryo quality and pregnancy were estimated using the interclass correlation coefficient between the repeated IVF cycle measurements for the same patient by variance component analysis. The formulae were designed to predict next IVF cycle outcome. The number of oocytes retrieved from patients and their fertilization rate had the highest reproducibility coefficients (r = 0.81 ~ 0.84), which indicated a very close correlation between the first retrieval cycle and subsequent IVF cycles. Oocyte maturity and number of top quality embryos had middle level reproducibility (r = 0.38 ~ 0.76) and pregnancy rate had a relative lower reproducibility (r = 0.23 ~ 0.27). Based on these parameters, the next outcome for these IVF traits might be accurately predicted by the designed formulae. The introduction of the concept of reproducibility to our human IVF program allows us to predict future IVF cycle outcomes. The traits of oocyte numbers retrieved, oocyte maturity, fertilization, and top quality embryos had higher or middle reproducibility, which provides a basis for accurate prediction of future IVF outcomes. Based on this prediction, physicians may counsel their patients or change patient's stimulation plans, and laboratory embryologists may improve their IVF techniques accordingly.

fMRI Reactivity to High-Calorie Food Pictures Predicts Short- and Long-Term Outcome in a Weight-Loss Program

PubMed Central

Murdaugh, Donna L.; Cox, James E.; Cook, Edwin W.; Weller, Rosalyn E.

2011-01-01

Behavioral studies have suggested that food cues have stronger motivating effects in obese than in normal-weight individuals, which may be a risk factor underlying obesity. Previous cross-sectional neuroimaging studies have suggested that this difference is mediated by increased reactivity to food cues in parts of the reward system in obese individuals. To date, however, only a few prospective neuroimaging studies have been conducted to examine whether individual differences in brain activation elicited by food cues can predict differences in weight change. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate activation in reward-system as well as other brain regions in response to viewing high-calorie food vs. control pictures in 25 obese individuals before and after a 12-week psychosocial weight-loss treatment and at 9-mo follow-up. In those obese individuals who were least successful in losing weight during the treatment, we found greater pre-treatment activation to high-calorie food vs. control pictures in brain regions implicated in reward-system processes, such as the nucleus accumbens, anterior cingulate, and insula. We found similar correlations with weight loss in brain regions implicated by other studies in vision and attention, such as superior occipital cortex, inferior and superior parietal lobule, and prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, less successful weight maintenance at 9-mo follow-up was predicted by greater post-treatment activation in such brain regions as insula, ventral tegmental area, putamen, and fusiform gyrus. In summary, we found that greater activation in brain regions mediating motivational and attentional salience of food cues in obese individuals at the start of a weight-loss program was predictive of less success in the program and that such activation following the program predicted poorer weight control over a 9-mo follow-up period. PMID:22332246

Blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) contrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for prediction of breast cancer chemotherapy response: a pilot study.

PubMed

Jiang, Lan; Weatherall, Paul T; McColl, Roderick W; Tripathy, Debu; Mason, Ralph P

2013-05-01

To determine whether a simple noninvasive method of assessing tumor oxygenation is feasible in the clinical setting and can provide useful, potentially predictive information. Tumor microcirculation and oxygenation play critical roles in tumor growth and responsiveness to cytotoxic treatment and may provide prognostic indicators for cancer therapy. Deoxyhemoglobin is paramagnetic and can serve as an endogenous contrast agent causing signal loss in echo planar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (blood oxygenation level-dependent [BOLD]-MRI). We used BOLD-MRI to provide early evaluation of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced breast cancer. MRI was performed on 11 patients with biopsy-proven malignancy. MRI exams were scheduled before, during, and after chemotherapy. The BOLD study applied a 6-minute oxygen breathing challenge. Seven patients successfully completed the exams. Before chemotherapy, BOLD contrast enhancement was observed in all tumors, but the patients, who ultimately had complete pathological response, exhibited a significantly higher BOLD response to oxygen breathing. We have successfully implemented an oxygen-breathing challenge BOLD contrast technique as part of the standard breast MRI exam in patients with locally advanced breast cancer. The preliminary observation that a large BOLD response correlated with better treatment response suggests a predictive capability for BOLD MRI. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Role of Neoadjuvant Trials in Drug Development for Solid Tumors.

PubMed

Funt, Samuel A; Chapman, Paul B

2016-05-15

The relatively low success rate of phase II oncology trials in predicting success of novel drugs in phase III trials and in gaining regulatory approval may be due to reliance on the endpoint of response rate defined by the RECIST. The neoadjuvant treatment paradigm allows the antitumor activity of a novel therapy to be determined on a pathologic basis at the time of surgery instead of by RECIST, which was not developed to guide clinical decision making or correlate with long-term outcomes. Indeed, the FDA endorsed pathologic complete response (pCR) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in early-stage breast cancer and granted accelerated approval to pertuzumab based on this endpoint. We propose that pCR is a biologically rational method of determining treatment effect that may be more likely to predict OS. We discuss some advantages of the neoadjuvant trial design, review the use of neoadjuvant therapy as standards of care, and consider the neoadjuvant platform as a method for drug development. Clin Cancer Res; 22(10); 2323-8. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Prediction of protein subcellular locations by GO-FunD-PseAA predictor.

PubMed

Chou, Kuo-Chen; Cai, Yu-Dong

2004-08-06

The localization of a protein in a cell is closely correlated with its biological function. With the explosion of protein sequences entering into DataBanks, it is highly desired to develop an automated method that can fast identify their subcellular location. This will expedite the annotation process, providing timely useful information for both basic research and industrial application. In view of this, a powerful predictor has been developed by hybridizing the gene ontology approach [Nat. Genet. 25 (2000) 25], functional domain composition approach [J. Biol. Chem. 277 (2002) 45765], and the pseudo-amino acid composition approach [Proteins Struct. Funct. Genet. 43 (2001) 246; Erratum: ibid. 44 (2001) 60]. As a showcase, the recently constructed dataset [Bioinformatics 19 (2003) 1656] was used for demonstration. The dataset contains 7589 proteins classified into 12 subcellular locations: chloroplast, cytoplasmic, cytoskeleton, endoplasmic reticulum, extracellular, Golgi apparatus, lysosomal, mitochondrial, nuclear, peroxisomal, plasma membrane, and vacuolar. The overall success rate of prediction obtained by the jackknife cross-validation was 92%. This is so far the highest success rate performed on this dataset by following an objective and rigorous cross-validation procedure.

Revisiting Temporal Markov Chains for Continuum modeling of Transport in Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgoshaie, A. H.; Jenny, P.; Tchelepi, H.

2017-12-01

The transport of fluids in porous media is dominated by flow­-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying permeability field. Due to the high uncertainty in the permeability field, many realizations of the reference geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo (MC) framework. There has been strong interest in working with stochastic formulations of the transport that are different from the standard MC approach. Several stochastic models based on a velocity process for tracer particle trajectories have been proposed. Previous studies have shown that for high variances of the log-conductivity, the stochastic models need to account for correlations between consecutive velocity transitions to predict dispersion accurately. The correlated velocity models proposed in the literature can be divided into two general classes of temporal and spatial Markov models. Temporal Markov models have been applied successfully to tracer transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. These temporal models are Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with very specific drift and diffusion terms tailored for a specific permeability correlation structure. The drift and diffusion functions devised for a certain setup would not necessarily be suitable for a different scenario, (e.g., a different permeability correlation structure). The spatial Markov models are simple discrete Markov chains that do not require case specific assumptions. However, transverse spreading of contaminant plumes has not been successfully modeled with the available correlated spatial models. Here, we propose a temporal discrete Markov chain to model both the longitudinal and transverse dispersion in a two-dimensional domain. We demonstrate that these temporal Markov models are valid for different correlation structures without modification. Similar to the temporal SDEs, the proposed model respects the limited asymptotic transverse spreading of the plume in two-dimensional problems.

Early serum progesterone and prolactin analysis at day 9 of oocyte retrieval as a predictor of success in fresh ICSI cycles.

PubMed

Pérez, Paulina A Santander; Ceschin, Álvaro P; Moraes, Daniela M P de; Oliveira, Lucileine K S N de; Ceschin, Nathan I; Ichikawa, Nathan

2018-06-01

To analyze progesterone and prolactin plasma levels nine days after oocyte retrieval and evaluate their correlation with pregnancy rates in in vitro fertilization cycles. To achieve pregnancy, several factors are analyzed before and during the in vitro fertilization cycle. Progesterone supplementation for adequate luteal phase support is indicated despite the presence of multiple corpus luteum in IVF stimulation cycles because of blockage caused by hypothalamic agonists and antagonists. The dosage of progesterone and prolactin on day 09 after follicular retrieval could function as a predictive marker of success in fertility treatments. A retrospective study was performed using data from 238 patients submitted to intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) at a private infertility clinic from January 2013 to December 2015. Hormonal measurements were performed on day 09 after follicular uptake. The data was compared to assess the correlation between prolactin and progesterone dosages and pregnancy rates. The ICSI pregnancy rate was 40.8% (n=238). No statistically significant difference was observed when correlating the success of the procedure with the prolactin dosage (p=0.71). However, progesterone showed a significant difference (p=0.021). The cutoff point, indicated by the ROC curve fit according to which gestation would be identified, is 25.95ng/ml of progesterone. The sensitivity of this point is 61.9% and the specificity is 57.4%. Progesterone dosage may be one of the indicators of gestation on day 09 after follicular uptake. Such data can help physicians to monitoring and provides suitable early gestational care. More studies are needed to corroborate the data found.

Predictive equations for lung volumes from computed tomography for size matching in pulmonary transplantation.

PubMed

Konheim, Jeremy A; Kon, Zachary N; Pasrija, Chetan; Luo, Qingyang; Sanchez, Pablo G; Garcia, Jose P; Griffith, Bartley P; Jeudy, Jean

2016-04-01

Size matching for lung transplantation is widely accomplished using height comparisons between donors and recipients. This gross approximation allows for wide variation in lung size and, potentially, size mismatch. Three-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT) volumetry comparisons could offer more accurate size matching. Although recipient CT scans are universally available, donor CT scans are rarely performed. Therefore, predicted donor lung volumes could be used for comparison to measured recipient lung volumes, but no such predictive equations exist. We aimed to use 3D-CT volumetry measurements from a normal patient population to generate equations for predicted total lung volume (pTLV), predicted right lung volume (pRLV), and predicted left lung volume (pLLV), for size-matching purposes. Chest CT scans of 400 normal patients were retrospectively evaluated. 3D-CT volumetry was performed to measure total lung volume, right lung volume, and left lung volume of each patient, and predictive equations were generated. The fitted model was tested in a separate group of 100 patients. The model was externally validated by comparison of total lung volume with total lung capacity from pulmonary function tests in a subset of those patients. Age, gender, height, and race were independent predictors of lung volume. In the test group, there were strong linear correlations between predicted and actual lung volumes measured by 3D-CT volumetry for pTLV (r = 0.72), pRLV (r = 0.72), and pLLV (r = 0.69). A strong linear correlation was also observed when comparing pTLV and total lung capacity (r = 0.82). We successfully created a predictive model for pTLV, pRLV, and pLLV. These may serve as reference standards and predict donor lung volume for size matching in lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of endoscopic management of leak after foregut surgery with endoscopic covered self-expanding metal stents (SEMS).

PubMed

Aryaie, Amir H; Singer, Jordan L; Fayezizadeh, Mojtaba; Lash, Jon; Marks, Jeffrey M

2017-02-01

Anastomotic or staple-line leak after foregut surgery presents a formidable management challenge. In recent years, with advancement of endoscopy, self-expanding covered stents have been gaining popularity. In this study, we aimed to determine the safety and effectiveness of self-expanding covered stents in management of leak after foregut surgery. Consecutive patients who received a fully covered self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) due to an anastomotic leak after upper gastrointestinal surgery between 2009 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Demographic data, stent placement and removal, clinical success, time to resolution, and complications were collected. Predictive factors for clinical success rate were assessed. A total of 20 consecutive patients underwent placement of fully covered SEMS for anastomotic leak, following esophagectomy (n = 5), esophageal diverticulectomy (n = 1), gastric sleeve (n = 4), gastric bypass (n = 3), partial gastrectomy (n = 4), and total gastrectomy (n = 3). All the stents were removed successfully, and clinical resolution was achieved in 18 patients (90 %) after a median of two (range 1-3) procedures and a mean of 6.2 weeks (range 0.4-14). Complications presented in 12 patients (60 %), including stent migration (n = 8), mucosal friability (n = 4), tissue integration (n = 2), and bleeding (n = 2). Two (10 %) patients' treatment was complicated by aorto-esophageal fistula formation resulting in one death. Demographic factors, comorbidities, and type of surgery were not predictive of clinical success rate or time to resolution. SEMS are effective tools for the management of leaks after foregut surgery. The biggest challenge with this approach is stent migration. Caution is warranted due to the risk of fatal complications such as aorto-esophageal fistula formation. No type of surgery or particular patient factor, including age, sex, BMI, albumin, history of radiation, malignancy, and comorbid diabetes or coronary artery disease, appeared to be correlated with success rate. Larger studies are needed to determine factors predictive of clinical success.

A numerical/empirical technique for history matching and predicting cyclic steam performance in Canadian oil sands reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leshchyshyn, Theodore Henry

The oil sands of Alberta contain some one trillion barrels of bitumen-in-place, most contained in the McMurray, Wabiskaw, Clearwater, and Grand Rapids formations. Depth of burial is 0--550 m, 10% of which is surface mineable, the rest recoverable by in-situ technology-driven enhanced oil recovery schemes. To date, significant commercial recovery has been attributed to Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) using vertical wellbores. Other techniques, such as Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) are proving superior to other recovery methods for increasing early oil production but at initial higher development and/or operating costs. Successful optimization of bitumen production rates from the entire reservoir is ultimately decided by the operator's understanding of the reservoir in its original state and/or the positive and negative changes which occur in oil sands and heavy oil deposits upon heat stimulation. Reservoir description is the single most important factor in attaining satisfactory history matches and forecasts for optimized production of the commercially-operated processes. Reservoir characterization which lacks understanding can destroy a project. For example, incorrect assumptions in the geological model for the Wolf Lake Project in northeast Alberta resulted in only about one-half of the predicted recovery by the original field process. It will be shown here why the presence of thin calcite streaks within oil sands can determine the success or failure of a commercial cyclic steam project. A vast amount of field data, mostly from the Primrose Heavy Oil Project (PHOP) near Cold Lake, Alberta, enabled the development a simple set of correlation curves for predicting bitumen production using CSS. A previously calibtrated thermal numerical simulation model was used in its simplist form, that is, a single layer, radial grid blocks, "fingering" or " dilation" adjusted permeability curves, and no simulated fracture, to generate the first cycle production correlation curves. The key reservoir property used to develop a specific curve was to vary the initial mobile water saturation. Individual pilot wells were then history-matched using these correlation curves, adjusting for thermal net pay using perforation height and a fundamentally derived "net pay factor". Operating days (injection plus production) were required to complete the history matching calculations. Subsequent cycles were then history-matched by applying an Efficiency Multiplication Factor (EMF) to the original first cycle prediction method as well as selecting the proper correlation curve for the specific cycle under analysis by using the appropriate steam injection rates and slug sizes. History matches were performed on eight PHOP wells (two back-to-back, five-spot patterns) completed in the Wabiskaw and, three single-well tests completed just below in the McMurray Formation. Predictions for the PHOP Wabiskaw Formation first cycle bitumen production averaged within 1% of the actual pilot total. Bitumen recovery from individual wells for second cycle onwards, was within 20% of actual values. For testing the correlations, matching was also performed on cyclic steam data from British Petroleum's Wolf Lake Project, the Esso Cold Lake Project, and the PCEJ Fort McMurray Pilot, a joint venture of Petro-Canada, Cities Services (Canadian Occidental), Esso, and Japan-Canada Oil Sands with reasonable results.

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Discrete modes of social information processing predict individual behavior of fish in a group

PubMed Central

Harpaz, Roy; Tkačik, Gašper

2017-01-01

Individual computations and social interactions underlying collective behavior in groups of animals are of great ethological, behavioral, and theoretical interest. While complex individual behaviors have successfully been parsed into small dictionaries of stereotyped behavioral modes, studies of collective behavior largely ignored these findings; instead, their focus was on inferring single, mode-independent social interaction rules that reproduced macroscopic and often qualitative features of group behavior. Here, we bring these two approaches together to predict individual swimming patterns of adult zebrafish in a group. We show that fish alternate between an “active” mode, in which they are sensitive to the swimming patterns of conspecifics, and a “passive” mode, where they ignore them. Using a model that accounts for these two modes explicitly, we predict behaviors of individual fish with high accuracy, outperforming previous approaches that assumed a single continuous computation by individuals and simple metric or topological weighing of neighbors’ behavior. At the group level, switching between active and passive modes is uncorrelated among fish, but correlated directional swimming behavior still emerges. Our quantitative approach for studying complex, multimodal individual behavior jointly with emergent group behavior is readily extensible to additional behavioral modes and their neural correlates as well as to other species. PMID:28874581

The value of a non-sport-specific motor test battery in predicting performance in young female gymnasts.

PubMed

Vandorpe, Barbara; Vandendriessche, Joric B; Vaeyens, Roel; Pion, Johan; Lefevre, Johan; Philippaerts, Renaat M; Lenoir, Matthieu

2012-01-01

Gymnastics talent identification focuses on the identification of young gymnasts who display characteristics for potential success in the future. The aim of this study was to identify which current performance characteristics are related to performance in competition 2 years later. Twenty-three female gymnasts aged 7-8 years completed a multidimensional test battery measuring anthropometric, physical, and coordinative characteristics and were technically evaluated by expert coaches. Two years later, the all-around competition results of those gymnasts now participating in elite (n = 12) and sub-elite (n = 11) competition were obtained. None of the initial measurements significantly correlated with the results of the sub-elite gymnasts 2 years later. For the elite gymnasts, a non-sport-specific motor test battery correlated strongly with the competition result, with more than 40% of the variation in competition performance being explained by the result on that test 2 years earlier. Neither the coaches' judgement nor the anthropometric and physical characteristics were sensitive enough to predict performance. A motor coordination test might be valuable in the early identification of gymnasts, as its discriminative and predictive qualities might be sufficiently powerful for selection within a relatively homogeneous population of gymnasts exhibiting similar anthropometric and physical profiles.

Social cognitions about food choice in children aged five to eight years: Feasibility and predictive validity of an age appropriate measurement.

PubMed

Fernandes-Machado, Sandra; Gellert, Paul; Goncalves, Sonia; Sniehotta, Falko F; Araujo-Soares, Vera

2016-10-01

There are currently no instruments available to measure social cognitions towards food choice in children. This study aimed to test the feasibility and predictive validity of a novel measurement tool to assess food-related social cognitions. Sixty-eight children, five to eight years old, were asked to sort cards with photographs of four fruit and four sweet/savoury snacks as a mean to measure attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control (PBC), and intention. Subsequently, food choice (dependent variable) was assessed using a laboratory food choice task in which children could gain access to sweet and savoury or fruit items, or a combination. All participants completed the tasks successfully, demonstrating feasibility of the procedure. The order in which the cards were sorted for each construct differed sufficiently and correlations between constructs were in line with previous studies. Measures of PBC, intention, attitude, and subjective norm from the mother, but not from teachers or friends, correlated significantly with subsequent food choice. It is possible to measure food-related social cognitions in children aged five to eight and these measures were predictive of observed behaviour. The new instrument can contribute to our understanding of psychological determinants of food choice in young children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric regression applied to quantitative structure-activity relationships

PubMed

Constans; Hirst

2000-03-01

Several nonparametric regressors have been applied to modeling quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) data. The simplest regressor, the Nadaraya-Watson, was assessed in a genuine multivariate setting. Other regressors, the local linear and the shifted Nadaraya-Watson, were implemented within additive models--a computationally more expedient approach, better suited for low-density designs. Performances were benchmarked against the nonlinear method of smoothing splines. A linear reference point was provided by multilinear regression (MLR). Variable selection was explored using systematic combinations of different variables and combinations of principal components. For the data set examined, 47 inhibitors of dopamine beta-hydroxylase, the additive nonparametric regressors have greater predictive accuracy (as measured by the mean absolute error of the predictions or the Pearson correlation in cross-validation trails) than MLR. The use of principal components did not improve the performance of the nonparametric regressors over use of the original descriptors, since the original descriptors are not strongly correlated. It remains to be seen if the nonparametric regressors can be successfully coupled with better variable selection and dimensionality reduction in the context of high-dimensional QSARs.

An analytical model of the mechanical properties of bulk coal under confined stress

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, G.X.; Wang, Z.T.; Rudolph, V.; Massarotto, P.; Finley, R.J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents the development of an analytical model which can be used to relate the structural parameters of coal to its mechanical properties such as elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio under a confined stress condition. This model is developed primarily to support process modeling of coalbed methane (CBM) or CO2-enhanced CBM (ECBM) recovery from coal seam. It applied an innovative approach by which stresses acting on and strains occurring in coal are successively combined in rectangular coordinates, leading to the aggregated mechanical constants. These mechanical properties represent important information for improving CBM/ECBM simulations and incorporating within these considerations of directional permeability. The model, consisting of constitutive equations which implement a mechanically consistent stress-strains correlation, can be used as a generalized tool to study the mechanical and fluid behaviors of coal composites. An example using the model to predict the stress-strain correlation of coal under triaxial confined stress by accounting for the elastic and brittle (non-elastic) deformations is discussed. The result shows a good agreement between the prediction and the experimental measurement. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvements in Modeling Thruster Plume Erosion Damage to Spacecraft Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soares, Carlos; Olsen, Randy; Steagall, Courtney; Huang, Alvin; Mikatarian, Ron; Myers, Brandon; Koontz, Steven; Worthy, Erica

2015-01-01

Spacecraft bipropellant thrusters impact spacecraft surfaces with high speed droplets of unburned and partially burned propellant. These impacts can produce erosion damage to optically sensitive hardware and systems (e.g., windows, camera lenses, solar cells and protective coatings). On the International Space Station (ISS), operational constraints are levied on the position and orientation of the solar arrays to mitigate erosion effects during thruster operations. In 2007, the ISS Program requested evaluation of erosion constraint relief to alleviate operational impacts due to an impaired Solar Alpha Rotary Joint (SARJ). Boeing Space Environments initiated an activity to identify and remove sources of conservatism in the plume induced erosion model to support an expanded range of acceptable solar array positions ? The original plume erosion model over-predicted plume erosion and was adjusted to better correlate with flight experiment results. This paper discusses findings from flight experiments and the methodology employed in modifying the original plume erosion model for better correlation of predictions with flight experiment data. The updated model has been successful employed in reducing conservatism and allowing for enhanced flexibility in ISS solar array operations.

FM-MAP: A Novel In-Training Examination Predicts Success on Family Medicine Certification Examination.

PubMed

Iglar, Karl; Leung, Fok-Han; Moineddin, Rahim; Herold, Jodi

2017-05-01

The objective of our study was to assess the correlation between a locally developed In-Training Examination (ITE) and the certification examination in family medicine in Canada. The ITE was taken twice yearly, which corresponded for most residents to the fifth, ninth, 17th, and 21st month of training. The results for the ITE were correlated to the CFPC certification examination taken in the 23rd month of residency. The scores on each of the four iterations of the ITE correlated moderately well with performance relating to problem solving skills and knowledge on the certification examination. The ITE showed a trend to an increased correlation with duration in the training program with a Spearman correlation coefficient increasing from 0.45 on the first test to 0.54 on the fourth test. The correlation of the ITE with performance on the component assessing the doctor- patient relationship on the certification examination was poor (r=0.26 on the last test). Our in-training examination is a useful predictor of performance in problem solving and knowledge domains of the family medicine expert role on the certification examination.

Prediction of Active-Region CME Productivity from Magnetograms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falconer, D. A.; Moore, R. L.; Gary, G. A.

2004-01-01

We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Semi-empirical airframe noise prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hersh, A. S.; Putnam, T. W.; Lasagna, P. L.; Burcham, F. W., Jr.

1976-01-01

A semi-empirical maximum overall sound pressure level (OASPL) airframe noise model was derived. The noise radiated from aircraft wings and flaps was modeled by using the trailing-edge diffracted quadrupole sound theory derived by Ffowcs Williams and Hall. The noise radiated from the landing gear was modeled by using the acoustic dipole sound theory derived by Curle. The model was successfully correlated with maximum OASPL flyover noise measurements obtained at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center for three jet aircraft - the Lockheed JetStar, the Convair 990, and the Boeing 747 aircraft.

Diffusion-weighted imaging score of the brain stem: A predictor of outcome in acute basilar artery occlusion treated with the Solitaire FR device.

PubMed

Mourand, I; Machi, P; Nogué, E; Arquizan, C; Costalat, V; Picot, M-C; Bonafé, A; Milhaud, D

2014-06-01

The prognosis for ischemic stroke due to acute basilar artery occlusion is very poor: Early recanalization remains the main factor that can improve outcomes. The baseline extent of brain stem ischemic damage can also influence outcomes. We evaluated the validity of an easy-to-use DWI score to predict clinical outcome in patients with acute basilar artery occlusion treated by mechanical thrombectomy. We analyzed the baseline clinical and DWI parameters of 31 patients with acute basilar artery occlusion, treated within 24 hours of symptom onset by using a Solitaire FR device. The DWI score of the brain stem was assessed with a 12-point semiquantitative score that separately considered each side of the medulla, pons, and midbrain. Clinical outcome was assessed at 180 days by using the mRS. According to receiver operating characteristic analyses, the cutoff score determined the optimal positive predictive value for outcome. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient assessed the correlation between the DWI brain stem score and baseline characteristics. Successful recanalization (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction 3-2b) was achieved in 23 patients (74%). A favorable outcome (mRS ≤ 2) was observed in 11 patients (35%). An optimal DWI brain stem score of <3 predicted a favorable outcome. The probability of a very poor outcome (mRS ≥ 5) if the DWI brain stem score was ≥5 reached 80% (positive predictive value) and 100% if this score was ≥6. Interobserver reliability of the DWI brain stem score was excellent, with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96-0.99). The DWI brain stem score was significantly associated with baseline tetraplegia (P = .001) and coma (P = .005). In patients with acute basilar artery occlusion treated by mechanical thrombectomy, the baseline DWI brain lesion score seems to predict clinical outcome. © 2014 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

2012-08-01

SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different 'homogeneous monsoon regions'.

The Effect of Velocity Correlation on the Spatial Evolution of Breakthrough Curves in Heterogeneous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massoudieh, A.; Dentz, M.; Le Borgne, T.

2017-12-01

In heterogeneous media, the velocity distribution and the spatial correlation structure of velocity for solute particles determine the breakthrough curves and how they evolve as one moves away from the solute source. The ability to predict such evolution can help relating the spatio-statistical hydraulic properties of the media to the transport behavior and travel time distributions. While commonly used non-local transport models such as anomalous dispersion and classical continuous time random walk (CTRW) can reproduce breakthrough curve successfully by adjusting the model parameter values, they lack the ability to relate model parameters to the spatio-statistical properties of the media. This in turns limits the transferability of these models. In the research to be presented, we express concentration or flux of solutes as a distribution over their velocity. We then derive an integrodifferential equation that governs the evolution of the particle distribution over velocity at given times and locations for a particle ensemble, based on a presumed velocity correlation structure and an ergodic cross-sectional velocity distribution. This way, the spatial evolution of breakthrough curves away from the source is predicted based on cross-sectional velocity distribution and the connectivity, which is expressed by the velocity transition probability density. The transition probability is specified via a copula function that can help construct a joint distribution with a given correlation and given marginal velocities. Using this approach, we analyze the breakthrough curves depending on the velocity distribution and correlation properties. The model shows how the solute transport behavior evolves from ballistic transport at small spatial scales to Fickian dispersion at large length scales relative to the velocity correlation length.

Identification of informative features for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts.

PubMed

Wang, Chia-Chi; Lin, Ying-Chi; Lin, Yuan-Chung; Jhang, Syu-Ruei; Tung, Chun-Wei

2017-08-18

The immunotoxicity of engine exhausts is of high concern to human health due to the increasing prevalence of immune-related diseases. However, the evaluation of immunotoxicity of engine exhausts is currently based on expensive and time-consuming experiments. It is desirable to develop efficient methods for immunotoxicity assessment. To accelerate the development of safe alternative fuels, this study proposed a computational method for identifying informative features for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts. A principal component regression (PCR) algorithm was applied to develop prediction models. The informative features were identified by a sequential backward feature elimination (SBFE) algorithm. A total of 19 informative chemical and biological features were successfully identified by SBFE algorithm. The informative features were utilized to develop a computational method named FS-CBM for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts. FS-CBM model achieved a high performance with correlation coefficient values of 0.997 and 0.943 obtained from training and independent test sets, respectively. The FS-CBM model was developed for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts with a large improvement on prediction performance compared with our previous CBM model. The proposed method could be further applied to construct models for bioactivities of mixtures.

Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies

PubMed Central

Cohen, Justin M; Singh, Inder; O'Brien, Megan E

2008-01-01

Background An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. Methods Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. Results Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds. Conclusion This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability. PMID:18831742

Mind the Gap: Bridging economic and naturalistic risk-taking with cognitive neuroscience

PubMed Central

Schonberg, Tom; Fox, Craig R.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2010-01-01

Economists define risk in terms of variability of possible outcomes whereas clinicians and laypeople generally view risk as exposure to possible loss or harm. Neuroeconomic studies using relatively simple behavioral tasks have identified a network of brain regions that respond to economic risk, but these studies have had limited success predicting naturalistic risk-taking. In contrast, more complex behavioral tasks developed by clinicians (e.g., Balloon Analogue Risk Task and Iowa Gambling Task) correlate with naturalistic risk-taking but resist decomposition into distinct cognitive constructs. We propose that to bridge this gap and better understand neural substrates of naturalistic risk-taking, new tasks are needed that: (1) are decomposable into basic cognitive/economic constructs; (2) predict naturalistic risk-taking; and (3) engender dynamic, affective engagement. PMID:21130018

Reaction path of energetic materials using THOR code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durães, L.; Campos, J.; Portugal, A.

1998-07-01

The method of predicting reaction path, using THOR code, allows for isobar and isochor adiabatic combustion and CJ detonation regimes, the calculation of the composition and thermodynamic properties of reaction products of energetic materials. THOR code assumes the thermodynamic equilibria of all possible products, for the minimum Gibbs free energy, using HL EoS. The code allows the possibility of estimating various sets of reaction products, obtained successively by the decomposition of the original reacting compound, as a function of the released energy. Two case studies of thermal decomposition procedure were selected, calculated and discussed—pure Ammonium Nitrate and its based explosive ANFO, and Nitromethane—because their equivalence ratio is respectively lower, near and greater than the stoicheiometry. Predictions of reaction path are in good correlation with experimental values, proving the validity of proposed method.

Monitoring coastal water properties and current circulation with ERTS-1. [Delaware Bay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klemas, V.; Otley, M.; Wethe, C.; Rogers, R.

1974-01-01

Imagery and digital tapes from nine successful ERTS-1 passes over Delaware Bay during different portions of the tidal cycle have been analyzed with special emphasis on turbidity, current circulation, waste disposal plumes and convergent boundaries between different water masses. ERTS-1 image radiance correlated well with Secchi depth and suspended sediment concentration. Circulation patterns observed by ERTS-1 during different parts of the tidal cycle, agreed well with predicted and measured currents throughout Delaware Bay. Convergent shear boundaries between different water masses were observed from ERTS-1. In several ERTS-1 frames, waste disposal plumes have been detected 36 miles off Delaware's Atlantic coast. The ERTS-1 results are being used to extend and verify hydrodynamic models of the bay, developed for predicting oil slick movement and estimating sediment transport.

A simple nonlinear model for the return to isotropy in turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarkar, Sutanu; Speziale, Charles G.

1990-01-01

A quadratic nonlinear generalization of the linear Rotta model for the slow pressure-strain correlation of turbulence is developed. The model is shown to satisfy realizability and to give rise to no stable nontrivial equilibrium solutions for the anisotropy tensor in the case of vanishing mean velocity gradients. The absence of stable nontrivial equilibrium solutions is a necessary condition to ensure that the model predicts a return to isotropy for all relaxational turbulent flows. Both the phase space dynamics and the temporal behavior of the model are examined and compared against experimental data for the return to isotropy problem. It is demonstrated that the quadratic model successfully captures the experimental trends which clearly exhibit nonlinear behavior. Direct comparisons are also made with the predictions of the Rotta model and the Lumley model.

An Appraisal of the Classic Forest Succession Paradigm with the Shade Tolerance Index

PubMed Central

Lienard, Jean; Florescu, Ionut; Strigul, Nikolay

2015-01-01

In this paper we revisit the classic theory of forest succession that relates shade tolerance and species replacement and assess its validity to understand patch-mosaic patterns of forested ecosystems of the USA. We introduce a macroscopic parameter called the “shade tolerance index” and compare it to the classic continuum index in southern Wisconsin forests. We exemplify shade tolerance driven succession in White Pine-Eastern Hemlock forests using computer simulations and analyzing approximated chronosequence data from the USDA FIA forest inventory. We describe this parameter across the last 50 years in the ecoregions of mainland USA, and demonstrate that it does not correlate with the usual macroscopic characteristics of stand age, biomass, basal area, and biodiversity measures. We characterize the dynamics of shade tolerance index using transition matrices and delimit geographical areas based on the relevance of shade tolerance to explain forest succession. We conclude that shade tolerance driven succession is linked to climatic variables and can be considered as a primary driving factor of forest dynamics mostly in central-north and northeastern areas in the USA. Overall, the shade tolerance index constitutes a new quantitative approach that can be used to understand and predict succession of forested ecosystems and biogeographic patterns. PMID:25658092

Prefrontal Parvalbumin Neurons in Control of Attention

PubMed Central

Kim, Hoseok; Ährlund-Richter, Sofie; Wang, Xinming; Deisseroth, Karl; Carlén, Marie

2016-01-01

Summary While signatures of attention have been extensively studied in sensory systems, the neural sources and computations responsible for top-down control of attention are largely unknown. Using chronic recordings in mice, we found that fast-spiking parvalbumin (FS-PV) interneurons in medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) uniformly show increased and sustained firing during goal-driven attentional processing, correlating to the level of attention. Elevated activity of FS-PV neurons on the timescale of seconds predicted successful execution of behavior. Successful allocation of attention was characterized by strong synchronization of FS-PV neurons, increased gamma oscillations, and phase locking of pyramidal firing. Phase-locked pyramidal neurons showed gamma-phase-dependent rate modulation during successful attentional processing. Optogenetic silencing of FS-PV neurons deteriorated attentional processing, while optogenetic synchronization of FS-PV neurons at gamma frequencies had pro-cognitive effects and improved goal-directed behavior. FS-PV neurons thus act as a functional unit coordinating the activity in the local mPFC circuit during goal-driven attentional processing. PMID:26771492

Pesticide contamination and hatching success of waterbirds in Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, D.H.; Fleming, W.J.; Ensor, K.L.

1988-01-01

Waterfowl wintering on the Yazoo National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) were contaminated (ltoreq 4 ppm wet wt) with dichloro diphenyl trichloroethane (DDT) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis-(p-chlorophenyl) ethylene (DDE), but residues were below levels known to affect waterfowl. Eggs of some nesting waterbirds contained higher than expected levels of DDE, especially those of green-backed herons (Butorides striatus), ranging up to 43 ppm wet weight. Hatching success (P lt 0.05) and eggshell thickness (P lt 0.05) in green-backed herons and anhingas (Anhinga anhinga) were negatively correlated with DDE in the eggs, and shell thinning (P lt 0.05) was evident 12-13 years after DDT was banned in the United States. The threshold level of DDE determined necessary for reduced hatching success in green-backed heron eggs was 5.1-10 ppm wet weight. These results further increase our ability to interpret DDE concentrations in waterbirds and predict their potential effects on productivity.

Large eddy simulation of forced ignition of an annular bluff-body burner

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Subramanian, V.; Domingo, P.; Vervisch, L.

2010-03-15

The optimization of the ignition process is a crucial issue in the design of many combustion systems. Large eddy simulation (LES) of a conical shaped bluff-body turbulent nonpremixed burner has been performed to study the impact of spark location on ignition success. This burner was experimentally investigated by Ahmed et al. [Combust. Flame 151 (2007) 366-385]. The present work focuses on the case without swirl, for which detailed measurements are available. First, cold-flow measurements of velocities and mixture fractions are compared with their LES counterparts, to assess the prediction capabilities of simulations in terms of flow and turbulent mixing. Timemore » histories of velocities and mixture fractions are recorded at selected spots, to probe the resolved probability density function (pdf) of flow variables, in an attempt to reproduce, from the knowledge of LES-resolved instantaneous flow conditions, the experimentally observed reasons for success or failure of spark ignition. A flammability map is also constructed from the resolved mixture fraction pdf and compared with its experimental counterpart. LES of forced ignition is then performed using flamelet fully detailed tabulated chemistry combined with presumed pdfs. Various scenarios of flame kernel development are analyzed and correlated with typical flow conditions observed in this burner. The correlations between, velocities and mixture fraction values at the sparking time and the success or failure of ignition, are then further discussed and analyzed. (author)« less

Predicting successful introduction of novel fruit to preschool children.

PubMed

Blissett, Jacqueline; Bennett, Carmel; Donohoe, Jessica; Rogers, Samantha; Higgs, Suzanne

2012-12-01

Few children eat sufficient fruits and vegetables despite their established health benefits. The feeding practices used by parents when introducing novel foods to their children, and their efficacy, require further investigation. We aimed to establish which feeding strategies parents commonly use when introducing a novel fruit to their preschool-aged children and assess the effectiveness of these feeding strategies on children's willingness to try a novel fruit. Correlational design. Twenty-five parents and their children aged 2 to 4 years attended our laboratory and consumed a standardized lunch, including a novel fruit. Interactions between parent and child were recorded and coded. Pearson's correlations and multiple linear regression analyses. The frequency with which children swallowed and enjoyed the novel fruit, and the frequency of taste exposures to the novel fruit during the meal, were positively correlated with parental use of physical prompting and rewarding/bargaining. Earlier introduction of solids was related to higher frequency of child acceptance behaviors. The child's age at introduction of solids and the number of physical prompts displayed by parents significantly predicted the frequency of swallowing and enjoying the novel fruit. Age of introduction to solids and parental use of rewards/bargaining significantly predicted the frequency of taste exposures. Prompting a child to eat and using rewards or bargains during a positive mealtime interaction can help to overcome barriers to novel fruit consumption. Early introduction of solids is also associated with greater willingness to consume a novel fruit. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of lidocaine for treatment success of oxcarbazepine in patients with neuropathic pain syndrome.

PubMed

Schipper, Sivan; Gantenbein, Andreas R; Maurer, Konrad; Alon, Eli; Sándor, Peter S

2013-06-01

Pharmacotherapy in patients with neuropathic pain syndromes (NPS) can be associated with long periods of trial and error before reaching satisfactory analgesia. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a short intravenous (i.v.) infusion of lidocaine may have a predictive value for the efficacy of oxcarbazepine. In total, 16 consecutive patients with NPS were studied in a prospective, uncontrolled, open-label study design. Each patient received i.v. lidocaine (5 mg/kg) within 30 min followed by a long-term oral oxcarbazepine treatment (900-1,500 mg/day). During an observation period of 28 days, treatment response was documented by a questionnaire including the average daily pain score documented on a numeric rating scale (NRS). A total of 6 out of 16 patients (38%) were lidocaine responders (defined as pain reduction >50% during the infusion), and 4 of 16 (25%) were oxcarbazepine responders. In total, 6 out of 16 participants (38%) discontinued oxcarbazepine treatment due to side effects. In an interim analysis predictive value of the lidocaine infusion was low with a Kendall's tau correlation coefficient of 0.29 and coefficient of determination R(2) of 0.119 (95% confidence interval -0.29 to 0.72). As a consequence of this low correlation, the study was discontinued for ethical reasons. In conclusion, lidocaine infusion has a low predictive value for effectiveness of oxcarbazepine-if at all.

Phosphate-based glasses: Prediction of acoustical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Moneim, Amin Abd

2016-04-01

In this work, a comprehensive study has been carried out to predict the composition dependence of bulk modulus and ultrasonic attenuation coefficient in the phosphate-based glass systems PbO-P2O5, Li2O-TeO2-B2O3-P2O5, TiO2-Na2O-CaO-P2O5 and Cr2O3-doped Na2O-ZnO-P2O5 at room temperature. The prediction is based on (i) Makishima-Mackenzie theory, which correlates the bulk modulus with packing density and dissociation energy per unit volume, and (ii) Our recently presented semi-empirical formulas, which correlate the ultrasonic attenuation coefficient with the oxygen density, mean atomic ring size, first-order stretching force constant and experimental bulk modulus. Results revealed that our recently presented semi-empirical formulas can be applied successfully to predict changes of ultrasonic attenuation coefficient in binary PbO-P2O5 glasses at 10 MHz frequency and in quaternary Li2O-TeO2-B2O3-P2O5, TiO2-Na2O-CaO-P2O5 and Cr2O3-Na2O-ZnO-P2O5 glasses at 5 MHz frequency. Also, Makishima-Mackenzie theory appears to be valid for the studied glasses if the effect of the basic structural units that present in the glass network is taken into account.

Multisurface modeling of Ni bioavailability to wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in various soils.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiaopeng; Jiang, Yang; Gu, Xueyuan; Gu, Cheng; Taylor, J Anita; Evans, Les J

2018-07-01

Continual efforts have been made to determine a simple and universal method of estimating heavy metal phytoavailability in terrestrial systems. In the present study, a mechanism-based multi-surface model (MSM) was developed to predict the partition of Ni(II) in soil-solution phases and its bioaccumulation in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in 19 Chinese soils with a wide range of soil properties. MSM successfully predicted the Ni(II) dissolution in 0.01 M CaCl 2 extracting solution (R 2  = 0.875). The two-site model for clay fraction improved the prediction, particularly for alkaline soils, because of the additional consideration of edge sites. More crucially, the calculated dissolved Ni(II) was highly correlated with the metal accumulation in wheat (R 2  = 0.820 for roots and 0.817 for shoots). The correlation coefficients for the MSM and various chemical extraction methods have the following order: soil pore water > MSM ≈ diffuse gradient technique (DGT) > soil total Ni > 0.43 M HNO 3  > 0.01 M CaCl 2 . The results suggested that the dissolved Ni(II) calculated using MSM can serve as an effective indicator of the bioavailability of Ni(II) in various soils; hence, MSM can be used as an supplement for metal risk prediction and assessment besides chemical extraction techniques. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Immune function and the decision to deploy weapons during fights in the beadlet anemone, Actinia equina.

PubMed

Lane, Sarah M; Briffa, Mark

2018-02-20

The ability to mitigate the costs of engaging in a fight will depend on an individual's physiological state. However, the experience of fighting itself may, in turn, affect an individual's state, especially if the fight results in injury. Previous studies have found a correlation between immune state and fighting success, but the causal direction of this relationship remains unclear. Does immune state determine fighting success? Or does fighting itself influence subsequent immune state? Using the beadlet anemone, Actinia equina , we disentangled the cause and effect of this relationship, measuring immune response once pre-fight and twice post-fight. Contrary to previous findings, pre-fight immune response did not predict fighting success, but rather predicted whether an individual used its weapons during the fight. Furthermore, weapon use and contest outcome significantly affected post-fight immune response. Individuals that used their weapons maintained a stable immune response following the fight, whereas those that fought non-injuriously did not. Furthermore, although winners suffered a reduction in immune response similar to that of losers immediately post-fight, winners began to recover pre-fight levels within 24 h. Our findings indicate that immune state can influence strategic fighting decisions and, moreover, that fight outcome and the agonistic behaviours expressed can significantly affect subsequent immunity. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Network-based de-noising improves prediction from microarray data.

PubMed

Kato, Tsuyoshi; Murata, Yukio; Miura, Koh; Asai, Kiyoshi; Horton, Paul B; Koji, Tsuda; Fujibuchi, Wataru

2006-03-20

Prediction of human cell response to anti-cancer drugs (compounds) from microarray data is a challenging problem, due to the noise properties of microarrays as well as the high variance of living cell responses to drugs. Hence there is a strong need for more practical and robust methods than standard methods for real-value prediction. We devised an extended version of the off-subspace noise-reduction (de-noising) method to incorporate heterogeneous network data such as sequence similarity or protein-protein interactions into a single framework. Using that method, we first de-noise the gene expression data for training and test data and also the drug-response data for training data. Then we predict the unknown responses of each drug from the de-noised input data. For ascertaining whether de-noising improves prediction or not, we carry out 12-fold cross-validation for assessment of the prediction performance. We use the Pearson's correlation coefficient between the true and predicted response values as the prediction performance. De-noising improves the prediction performance for 65% of drugs. Furthermore, we found that this noise reduction method is robust and effective even when a large amount of artificial noise is added to the input data. We found that our extended off-subspace noise-reduction method combining heterogeneous biological data is successful and quite useful to improve prediction of human cell cancer drug responses from microarray data.

Insights into the structural basis of N2 and O6 substituted guanine derivatives as cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2) inhibitors: prediction of the binding modes and potency of the inhibitors by docking and ONIOM calculations.

PubMed

Alzate-Morales, Jans H; Caballero, Julio; Vergara Jague, Ariela; González Nilo, Fernando D

2009-04-01

N2 and O6 substituted guanine derivatives are well-known as potent and selective CDK2 inhibitors. The ability of molecular docking using the program AutoDock3 and the hybrid method ONIOM, to obtain some quantum chemical descriptors with the aim to successfully rank these inhibitors, was assessed. The quantum chemical descriptors were used to explain the affinity, of the series studied, by a model of the CDK2 binding site. The initial structures were obtained from docking studies and the ONIOM method was applied with only a single point energy calculation on the protein-ligand structure. We obtained a good correlation model between the ONIOM derived quantum chemical descriptor "H-bond interaction energy" and the experimental biological activity, with a correlation coefficient value of R = 0.80 for 75 compounds. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that both methodologies are used in conjunction in order to obtain a correlation model. The model suggests that electrostatic interactions are the principal driving force in this protein-ligand interaction. Overall, the approach was successful for the cases considered, and it suggests that could be useful for the design of inhibitors in the lead optimization phase of drug discovery.

Can a virtual reality assessment of fine motor skill predict successful central line insertion?

PubMed

Mohamadipanah, Hossein; Parthiban, Chembian; Nathwani, Jay; Rutherford, Drew; DiMarco, Shannon; Pugh, Carla

2016-10-01

Due to the increased use of peripherally inserted central catheter lines, central lines are not performed as frequently. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether a virtual reality (VR)-based assessment of fine motor skills can be used as a valid and objective assessment of central line skills. Surgical residents (N = 43) from 7 general surgery programs performed a subclavian central line in a simulated setting. Then, they participated in a force discrimination task in a VR environment. Hand movements from the subclavian central line simulation were tracked by electromagnetic sensors. Gross movements as monitored by the electromagnetic sensors were compared with the fine motor metrics calculated from the force discrimination tasks in the VR environment. Long periods of inactivity (idle time) during needle insertion and lack of smooth movements, as detected by the electromagnetic sensors, showed a significant correlation with poor force discrimination in the VR environment. Also, long periods of needle insertion time correlated to the poor performance in force discrimination in the VR environment. This study shows that force discrimination in a defined VR environment correlates to needle insertion time, idle time, and hand smoothness when performing subclavian central line placement. Fine motor force discrimination may serve as a valid and objective assessment of the skills required for successful needle insertion when placing central lines. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resting-state low-frequency fluctuations reflect individual differences in spoken language learning.

PubMed

Deng, Zhizhou; Chandrasekaran, Bharath; Wang, Suiping; Wong, Patrick C M

2016-03-01

A major challenge in language learning studies is to identify objective, pre-training predictors of success. Variation in the low-frequency fluctuations (LFFs) of spontaneous brain activity measured by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI) has been found to reflect individual differences in cognitive measures. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the extent to which initial spontaneous brain activity is related to individual differences in spoken language learning. We acquired RS-fMRI data and subsequently trained participants on a sound-to-word learning paradigm in which they learned to use foreign pitch patterns (from Mandarin Chinese) to signal word meaning. We performed amplitude of spontaneous low-frequency fluctuation (ALFF) analysis, graph theory-based analysis, and independent component analysis (ICA) to identify functional components of the LFFs in the resting-state. First, we examined the ALFF as a regional measure and showed that regional ALFFs in the left superior temporal gyrus were positively correlated with learning performance, whereas ALFFs in the default mode network (DMN) regions were negatively correlated with learning performance. Furthermore, the graph theory-based analysis indicated that the degree and local efficiency of the left superior temporal gyrus were positively correlated with learning performance. Finally, the default mode network and several task-positive resting-state networks (RSNs) were identified via the ICA. The "competition" (i.e., negative correlation) between the DMN and the dorsal attention network was negatively correlated with learning performance. Our results demonstrate that a) spontaneous brain activity can predict future language learning outcome without prior hypotheses (e.g., selection of regions of interest--ROIs) and b) both regional dynamics and network-level interactions in the resting brain can account for individual differences in future spoken language learning success. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resting-state low-frequency fluctuations reflect individual differences in spoken language learning

PubMed Central

Deng, Zhizhou; Chandrasekaran, Bharath; Wang, Suiping; Wong, Patrick C.M.

2016-01-01

A major challenge in language learning studies is to identify objective, pre-training predictors of success. Variation in the low-frequency fluctuations (LFFs) of spontaneous brain activity measured by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI) has been found to reflect individual differences in cognitive measures. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the extent to which initial spontaneous brain activity is related to individual differences in spoken language learning. We acquired RS-fMRI data and subsequently trained participants on a sound-to-word learning paradigm in which they learned to use foreign pitch patterns (from Mandarin Chinese) to signal word meaning. We performed amplitude of spontaneous low-frequency fluctuation (ALFF) analysis, graph theory-based analysis, and independent component analysis (ICA) to identify functional components of the LFFs in the resting-state. First, we examined the ALFF as a regional measure and showed that regional ALFFs in the left superior temporal gyrus were positively correlated with learning performance, whereas ALFFs in the default mode network (DMN) regions were negatively correlated with learning performance. Furthermore, the graph theory-based analysis indicated that the degree and local efficiency of the left superior temporal gyrus were positively correlated with learning performance. Finally, the default mode network and several task-positive resting-state networks (RSNs) were identified via the ICA. The “competition” (i.e., negative correlation) between the DMN and the dorsal attention network was negatively correlated with learning performance. Our results demonstrate that a) spontaneous brain activity can predict future language learning outcome without prior hypotheses (e.g., selection of regions of interest – ROIs) and b) both regional dynamics and network-level interactions in the resting brain can account for individual differences in future spoken language learning success. PMID:26866283

Evaluating the effectiveness of an online medical laboratory technician program.

PubMed

Hansen-Suchy, Kara

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effectiveness of an online medical laboratory technician program in the academic preparation and development of laboratory professionals. A semi-quantitative comparative research design was used. Several factors were considered in this evaluation. Academic outcomes between online and campus medical laboratory technician (MLT) students was determined by comparing overall and categorical scores on certification exams as well as first time pass rate. Certification exam scores and first time pass rates were also compared to national norms when possible to do so. Demographic data, including age and experience were compared. Additionally, learning styles were assessed to determine if there was a correlation to overall GPA and MLT GPA and if learning styles could be used to predict successful completion of an online Associates of Applied Science. The research was conducted at an academic university located in the mountain west United States. Participants consisted of online and campus students enrolled in a Medical Laboratory Technician program that graduated with their Associate of Applied Science degree between the years 2007-2009. Results of these years were also compared to graduates from 2004-2006 in the same program. Certification performance and first time pass rates were the major outcomes measured. Age and experience were correlated. Online learning styles and GPA were also compared to successful degree completion. The researcher found no significant difference in certification performance with regard to total and categorical scores, and first time pass rates between campus and online MLT students. Online students were slightly older and had more experience working in a laboratory in some capacity. Correlation studies showed significant positive correlation between learning styles, GPA, and successful completion of an Associate of Applied Science degree. When registry scores were compared to the prior cohort of online students, some subcategories scores demonstrated a significant increase using Chi-squared analysis. The research demonstrated that the online MLT students studied were as academically prepared as their campus counterparts.

Factors related to academic success among nursing students: a descriptive correlational research study.

PubMed

Beauvais, Audrey M; Stewart, Julie G; DeNisco, Susan; Beauvais, John E

2014-06-01

The current rise in employment is improving forecasts for the future supply of registered nurses; however sizeable shortages are still projected. With the intention of improving academic success in nursing students, related factors need to be better understood. The purpose of the correlational study was to describe the relationship between emotional intelligence, psychological empowerment, resilience, spiritual well-being, and academic success in undergraduate and graduate nursing students. A descriptive correlational design was utilized. The study was set in a private Catholic university. There were 124 participants. There were 59% undergraduate and 41% graduate students. Background data, in addition to the Spreitzer Psychological Empowerment Scale, the Wagnild and Young Resilience Scale, and the Spiritual Well-Being Scale and the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, was collected from students who met study criteria. In a combined sample, academic success was correlated with overall spiritual well-being, empowerment and resilience. Although academic success was not correlated with overall emotional intelligence, it was correlated with the emotional intelligence branch four (managing emotions) score. When undergraduate and graduate students were considered separately, only one correlation was found to be significantly related to academic success in the undergraduate sample, namely, emotional intelligence branch one (perceiving emotions). When examining the data from just graduate level nurses, significant relationships were found between total emotional intelligence with academic success, resilience with academic success, and psychological empowerment with academic success. The significant relationship between psychological empowerment, resilience, spiritual well-being and academic success in this study supports the statements in the literature that these concepts may play an important role in persistence through the challenges of nursing education. Research is needed to examine if strategies to enhance empowerment, resilience, and spiritual well-being can increase academic success in a test-retest design. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: A comparison of stochastic gradient boosting, generalized additive models, and tree-based methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moisen, Gretchen G.; Freeman, E.A.; Blackard, J.A.; Frescino, T.S.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Edwards, T.C.

2006-01-01

Many efforts are underway to produce broad-scale forest attribute maps by modelling forest class and structure variables collected in forest inventories as functions of satellite-based and biophysical information. Typically, variants of classification and regression trees implemented in Rulequest's?? See5 and Cubist (for binary and continuous responses, respectively) are the tools of choice in many of these applications. These tools are widely used in large remote sensing applications, but are not easily interpretable, do not have ties with survey estimation methods, and use proprietary unpublished algorithms. Consequently, three alternative modelling techniques were compared for mapping presence and basal area of 13 species located in the mountain ranges of Utah, USA. The modelling techniques compared included the widely used See5/Cubist, generalized additive models (GAMs), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Model performance was evaluated using independent test data sets. Evaluation criteria for mapping species presence included specificity, sensitivity, Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC). Evaluation criteria for the continuous basal area variables included correlation and relative mean squared error. For predicting species presence (setting thresholds to maximize Kappa), SGB had higher values for the majority of the species for specificity and Kappa, while GAMs had higher values for the majority of the species for sensitivity. In evaluating resultant AUC values, GAM and/or SGB models had significantly better results than the See5 models where significant differences could be detected between models. For nine out of 13 species, basal area prediction results for all modelling techniques were poor (correlations less than 0.5 and relative mean squared errors greater than 0.8), but SGB provided the most stable predictions in these instances. SGB and Cubist performed equally well for modelling basal area for three species with moderate prediction success, while all three modelling tools produced comparably good predictions (correlation of 0.68 and relative mean squared error of 0.56) for one species. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment after scleral buckling.

PubMed

Fang, Wei; Li, Jiu-Ke; Jin, Xiao-Hong; Dai, Yuan-Min; Li, Yu-Min

2016-01-01

To evaluate predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatgenous retinal detachment (RRD) after sclera buckling (SB). Totally 48 patients (51 eyes) with primary chronic RRD were included in this prospective interventional clinical cases study, which underwent SB alone from June 2008 to December 2014. Age, sex, symptoms duration, detached extension, retinal hole position, size, type, fovea on/off, proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR), posterior vitreous detachment (PVD), baseline best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), operative duration, follow up duration, final BCVA were measured. Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman correlation analysis and multivariate linear stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better final visual acuity. Student's t-test, Wilcoxon two-sample test, Chi-square test and logistic stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better vision improvement. Baseline BCVA was 0.8313±0.6911 logMAR and final BCVA was 0.4761±0.4956 logMAR. Primary surgical success rate was 92.16% (47/51). Correlation analyses revealed shorter symptoms duration (r=0.3850, P=0.0053), less detached area (r=0.5489, P<0.0001), fovea (r=0.4605, P=0.0007), no PVR (r=0.3138, P=0.0250), better baseline BCVA (r=0.7291, P<0.0001), shorter operative duration (r=0.3233, P=0.0207) and longer follow up (r=-0.3358, P=0.0160) were related with better final BCVA, while independent predictive factors were better baseline BCVA [partial R-square (PR(2))=0.5316, P<0.0001], shorter symptoms duration (PR(2)=0.0609, P=0.0101), longer follow up duration (PR(2)=0.0278, P=0.0477) and shorter operative duration (PR(2)=0.0338, P=0.0350). Patients with vision improvement took up 49.02% (25/51). Univariate and multivariate analyses both revealed predictive factors for better vision improvement were better baseline vision [odds ratio (OR) =50.369, P=0.0041] and longer follow up duration (OR=1.144, P=0.0067). Independent predictive factors for better visual outcome of primary chronic RRD after SB are better baseline BCVA, shorter symptoms duration, shorter operative duration and longer follow up duration, while independent predictive factors for better vision improvement after operation are better baseline vision and longer follow up duration.

Predicting Dishonorable Discharge Among Military Recruits

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

train its members to give them the highest chance possible at a successful career. Jacob Rodriquez’s study, “Predicting the Military Career Success of...society as a whole. To improve the enlistment process and attract recruits with the highest probability of future career success , based on our...00036840801964450 Rodriguez, John J. (2008, January 1). Predicting the career success of air force academy cadets (Paper AAI3309209). ETD collection for

Contrast Runoff Correlates with the Clinical Outcome of Cervical Epidural Neuroplasty Using a Racz Catheter.

PubMed

Han, Yun-Joung; Lee, Myoung No; Cho, Min Ji; Park, Hue Jung; Moon, Dong Eon; Kim, Young Hoon

2016-01-01

Epidural neuroplasty using a Racz catheter has a therapeutic effect. Studies have found no correlation between foraminal stenosis and the outcome of epidural neuroplasty, which is thought to depend on contrast runoff. To examine the correlation between the contrast spread pattern and pain reduction in cervical epidural neuroplasty using a Racz catheter. Retrospective study. An interventional pain-management practice in a university hospital. Fluoroscopic images were reviewed retrospectively. The spread of contrast from the neural foramen to a nerve root was called contrast runoff. If the contrast did not spread in this manner, then there was no contrast runoff. We defined successful epidural neuroplasty as a 50% or greater reduction from the pre-procedure numeric rating scale (NRS) score for total pain, and an at least 40% reduction in the neck pain and disability scale (NPDS) score. This study reviewed 169 patients. Among the patients who had a contrast runoff pattern, the epidural neuroplasty was rated as successful in 96 (74.4%), 97 (75.2%), 86 (66.7%), and 79 (61.2%) cases one, 3, 6, and 12 months after the procedure, respectively. When there was no contrast runoff, the epidural neuroplasty was successful in 12 (30%), 12 (30%), 10 (25%), and 10 (25%) cases at one, 3, 6, and 12 months after the procedure (P < 0.001). Logistic regression of the contrast spread pattern and predicting successful epidural neuroplasty gave similar results. Patients with a contrast runoff pattern had odds ratios of 6.788, 7.073, 6.000, and 4.740 at one, 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively (P < 0.001). This study lacked a control group, and the patients were not classified by their diagnosed disease, such as spinal stenosis, herniated nucleus pulposus, and post-spinal surgery syndrome. Cervical epidural neuroplasty with a contrast runoff pattern had a higher success rate. Contrast runoff should be observed during neuroplasty, even in the presence of foraminal stenosis. Cervical spinal pain, contrast, contrast runoff, epidural neuroplasty, percutaneous adhesiolysis, Racz catheter.

Towards the feasibility of using ultrasound to determine mechanical properties of tissues in a bioreactor.

PubMed

Mansour, Joseph M; Gu, Di-Win Marine; Chung, Chen-Yuan; Heebner, Joseph; Althans, Jake; Abdalian, Sarah; Schluchter, Mark D; Liu, Yiying; Welter, Jean F

2014-10-01

Our ultimate goal is to non-destructively evaluate mechanical properties of tissue-engineered (TE) cartilage using ultrasound (US). We used agarose gels as surrogates for TE cartilage. Previously, we showed that mechanical properties measured using conventional methods were related to those measured using US, which suggested a way to non-destructively predict mechanical properties of samples with known volume fractions. In this study, we sought to determine whether the mechanical properties of samples, with unknown volume fractions could be predicted by US. Aggregate moduli were calculated for hydrogels as a function of SOS, based on concentration and density using a poroelastic model. The data were used to train a statistical model, which we then used to predict volume fractions and mechanical properties of unknown samples. Young's and storage moduli were measured mechanically. The statistical model generally predicted the Young's moduli in compression to within <10% of their mechanically measured value. We defined positive linear correlations between the aggregate modulus predicted from US and both the storage and Young's moduli determined from mechanical tests. Mechanical properties of hydrogels with unknown volume fractions can be predicted successfully from US measurements. This method has the potential to predict mechanical properties of TE cartilage non-destructively in a bioreactor.

Towards the feasibility of using ultrasound to determine mechanical properties of tissues in a bioreactor

PubMed Central

Mansour, Joseph M.; Gu, Di-Win Marine; Chung, Chen-Yuan; Heebner, Joseph; Althans, Jake; Abdalian, Sarah; Schluchter, Mark D.; Liu, Yiying; Welter, Jean F.

2016-01-01

Introduction Our ultimate goal is to non-destructively evaluate mechanical properties of tissue-engineered (TE) cartilage using ultrasound (US). We used agarose gels as surrogates for TE cartilage. Previously, we showed that mechanical properties measured using conventional methods were related to those measured using US, which suggested a way to non-destructively predict mechanical properties of samples with known volume fractions. In this study, we sought to determine whether the mechanical properties of samples, with unknown volume fractions could be predicted by US. Methods Aggregate moduli were calculated for hydrogels as a function of SOS, based on concentration and density using a poroelastic model. The data were used to train a statistical model, which we then used to predict volume fractions and mechanical properties of unknown samples. Young's and storage moduli were measured mechanically. Results The statistical model generally predicted the Young's moduli in compression to within < 10% of their mechanically measured value. We defined positive linear correlations between the aggregate modulus predicted from US and both the storage and Young's moduli determined from mechanical tests. Conclusions Mechanical properties of hydrogels with unknown volume fractions can be predicted successfully from US measurements. This method has the potential to predict mechanical properties of TE cartilage non-destructively in a bioreactor. PMID:25092421

Phase-contrast MRI versus numerical simulation to quantify hemodynamical changes in cerebral aneurysms after flow diverter treatment

PubMed Central

Frolov, Sergey; Prothmann, Sascha; Liepsch, Dieter; Balasso, Andrea; Berg, Philipp; Kaczmarz, Stephan; Kirschke, Jan Stefan

2018-01-01

Cerebral aneurysms are a major risk factor for intracranial bleeding with devastating consequences for the patient. One recently established treatment is the implantation of flow-diverters (FD). Methods to predict their treatment success before or directly after implantation are not well investigated yet. The aim of this work was to quantitatively study hemodynamic parameters in patient-specific models of treated cerebral aneurysms and its correlation with the clinical outcome. Hemodynamics were evaluated using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and phase contrast (PC) MRI. CFD simulations and in vitro MRI measurements were done under similar flow conditions and results of both methods were comparatively analyzed. For preoperative and postoperative distribution of hemodynamic parameters, CFD simulations and PC-MRI velocity measurements showed similar results. In both cases where no occlusion of the aneurysm was observed after six months, a flow reduction of about 30-50% was found, while in the clinically successful case with complete occlusion of the aneurysm after 6 months, the flow reduction was about 80%. No vortex was observed in any of the three models after treatment. The results are in agreement with recent studies suggesting that CFD simulations can predict post-treatment aneurysm flow alteration already before implantation of a FD and PC-MRI could validate the predicted hemodynamic changes right after implantation of a FD. PMID:29304062

Intrinsic Functional Connectivity in the Adult Brain and Success in Second-Language Learning.

PubMed

Chai, Xiaoqian J; Berken, Jonathan A; Barbeau, Elise B; Soles, Jennika; Callahan, Megan; Chen, Jen-Kai; Klein, Denise

2016-01-20

There is considerable variability in an individual's ability to acquire a second language (L2) during adulthood. Using resting-state fMRI data acquired before training in English speakers who underwent a 12 week intensive French immersion training course, we investigated whether individual differences in intrinsic resting-state functional connectivity relate to a person's ability to acquire an L2. We focused on two key aspects of language processing--lexical retrieval in spontaneous speech and reading speed--and computed whole-brain functional connectivity from two regions of interest in the language network, namely the left anterior insula/frontal operculum (AI/FO) and the visual word form area (VWFA). Connectivity between the left AI/FO and left posterior superior temporal gyrus (STG) and between the left AI/FO and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex correlated positively with improvement in L2 lexical retrieval in spontaneous speech. Connectivity between the VWFA and left mid-STG correlated positively with improvement in L2 reading speed. These findings are consistent with the different language functions subserved by subcomponents of the language network and suggest that the human capacity to learn an L2 can be predicted by an individual's intrinsic functional connectivity within the language network. Significance statement: There is considerable variability in second-language learning abilities during adulthood. We investigated whether individual differences in intrinsic functional connectivity in the adult brain relate to success in second-language learning, using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging in English speakers who underwent a 12 week intensive French immersion training course. We found that pretraining functional connectivity within two different language subnetworks correlated strongly with learning outcome in two different language skills: lexical retrieval in spontaneous speech and reading speed. Our results suggest that the human capacity to learn a second language can be predicted by an individual's intrinsic functional connectivity within the language network. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/360755-07$15.00/0.

Maternal health status correlates with nest success of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) from Florida.

PubMed

Perrault, Justin R; Miller, Debra L; Eads, Erica; Johnson, Chris; Merrill, Anita; Thompson, Larry J; Wyneken, Jeanette

2012-01-01

Of the seven sea turtle species, the critically endangered leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) exhibits the lowest and most variable nest success (i.e., hatching success and emergence success) for reasons that remain largely unknown. In an attempt to identify or rule out causes of low reproductive success in this species, we established the largest sample size (n = 60-70 for most values) of baseline blood parameters (protein electrophoresis, hematology, plasma biochemistry) for this species to date. Hematologic, protein electrophoretic and biochemical values are important tools that can provide information regarding the physiological condition of an individual and population health as a whole. It has been proposed that the health of nesting individuals affects their reproductive output. In order to establish correlations with low reproductive success in leatherback sea turtles from Florida, we compared maternal health indices to hatching success and emergence success of their nests. As expected, hatching success (median = 57.4%) and emergence success (median = 49.1%) in Floridian leatherbacks were low during the study period (2007-2008 nesting seasons), a trend common in most nesting leatherback populations (average global hatching success = ∼50%). One protein electrophoretic value (gamma globulin protein) and one hematologic value (red blood cell count) significantly correlated with hatching success and emergence success. Several maternal biochemical parameters correlated with hatching success and/or emergence success including alkaline phosphatase activity, blood urea nitrogen, calcium, calcium:phosphorus ratio, carbon dioxide, cholesterol, creatinine, and phosphorus. Our results suggest that in leatherbacks, physiological parameters correlate with hatching success and emergence success of their nests. We conclude that long-term and comparative studies are needed to determine if certain individuals produce nests with lower hatching success and emergence success than others, and if those individuals with evidence of chronic suboptimal health have lower reproductive success.

Maternal Health Status Correlates with Nest Success of Leatherback Sea Turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) from Florida

PubMed Central

Perrault, Justin R.; Miller, Debra L.; Eads, Erica; Johnson, Chris; Merrill, Anita; Thompson, Larry J.; Wyneken, Jeanette

2012-01-01

Of the seven sea turtle species, the critically endangered leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) exhibits the lowest and most variable nest success (i.e., hatching success and emergence success) for reasons that remain largely unknown. In an attempt to identify or rule out causes of low reproductive success in this species, we established the largest sample size (n = 60–70 for most values) of baseline blood parameters (protein electrophoresis, hematology, plasma biochemistry) for this species to date. Hematologic, protein electrophoretic and biochemical values are important tools that can provide information regarding the physiological condition of an individual and population health as a whole. It has been proposed that the health of nesting individuals affects their reproductive output. In order to establish correlations with low reproductive success in leatherback sea turtles from Florida, we compared maternal health indices to hatching success and emergence success of their nests. As expected, hatching success (median = 57.4%) and emergence success (median = 49.1%) in Floridian leatherbacks were low during the study period (2007–2008 nesting seasons), a trend common in most nesting leatherback populations (average global hatching success = ∼50%). One protein electrophoretic value (gamma globulin protein) and one hematologic value (red blood cell count) significantly correlated with hatching success and emergence success. Several maternal biochemical parameters correlated with hatching success and/or emergence success including alkaline phosphatase activity, blood urea nitrogen, calcium, calcium∶phosphorus ratio, carbon dioxide, cholesterol, creatinine, and phosphorus. Our results suggest that in leatherbacks, physiological parameters correlate with hatching success and emergence success of their nests. We conclude that long-term and comparative studies are needed to determine if certain individuals produce nests with lower hatching success and emergence success than others, and if those individuals with evidence of chronic suboptimal health have lower reproductive success. PMID:22359635

SU-D-207B-07: Development of a CT-Radiomics Based Early Response Prediction Model During Delivery of Chemoradiation Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klawikowski, S; Christian, J; Schott, D

Purpose: Pilot study developing a CT-texture based model for early assessment of treatment response during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy (CRT) for pancreatic cancer. Methods: Daily CT data acquired for 24 pancreatic head cancer patients using CT-on-rails, during the routine CT-guided CRT delivery with a radiation dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions, were analyzed. The pancreas head was contoured on each daily CT. Texture analysis was performed within the pancreas head contour using a research tool (IBEX). Over 1300 texture metrics including: grey level co-occurrence, run-length, histogram, neighborhood intensity difference, and geometrical shape features were calculated for each dailymore » CT. Metric-trend information was established by finding the best fit of either a linear, quadratic, or exponential function for each metric value verses accumulated dose. Thus all the daily CT texture information was consolidated into a best-fit trend type for a given patient and texture metric. Linear correlation was performed between the patient histological response vector (good, medium, poor) and all combinations of 23 patient subgroups (statistical jackknife) determining which metrics were most correlated to response and repeatedly reliable across most patients. Control correlations against CT scanner, reconstruction kernel, and gated/nongated CT images were also calculated. Euclidean distance measure was used to group/sort patient vectors based on the data of these trend-response metrics. Results: We found four specific trend-metrics (Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffMomentNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1 Homogeneity2, and Intensity Direct Local StdMean) that were highly correlated with patient response and repeatedly reliable. Our four trend-metric model successfully ordered our pilot response dataset (p=0.00070). We found no significant correlation to our control parameters: gating (p=0.7717), scanner (p=0.9741), and kernel (p=0.8586). Conclusion: We have successfully created a CT-texture based early treatment response prediction model using the CTs acquired during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy for pancreatic cancer. Future testing is required to validate the model with more patient data.« less

A continuous time-resolved measure decoded from EEG oscillatory activity predicts working memory task performance.

PubMed

Astrand, Elaine

2018-06-01

Working memory (WM), crucial for successful behavioral performance in most of our everyday activities, holds a central role in goal-directed behavior. As task demands increase, inducing higher WM load, maintaining successful behavioral performance requires the brain to work at the higher end of its capacity. Because it is depending on both external and internal factors, individual WM load likely varies in a continuous fashion. The feasibility to extract such a continuous measure in time that correlates to behavioral performance during a working memory task remains unsolved. Multivariate pattern decoding was used to test whether a decoder constructed from two discrete levels of WM load can generalize to produce a continuous measure that predicts task performance. Specifically, a linear regression with L2-regularization was chosen with input features from EEG oscillatory activity recorded from healthy participants while performing the n-back task, [Formula: see text]. The feasibility to extract a continuous time-resolved measure that correlates positively to trial-by-trial working memory task performance is demonstrated (r  =  0.47, p  <  0.05). It is furthermore shown that this measure allows to predict task performance before action (r  =  0.49, p  <  0.05). We show that the extracted continuous measure enables to study the temporal dynamics of the complex activation pattern of WM encoding during the n-back task. Specifically, temporally precise contributions of different spectral features are observed which extends previous findings of traditional univariate approaches. These results constitute an important contribution towards a wide range of applications in the field of cognitive brain-machine interfaces. Monitoring mental processes related to attention and WM load to reduce the risk of committing errors in high-risk environments could potentially prevent many devastating consequences or using the continuous measure as neurofeedback opens up new possibilities to develop novel rehabilitation techniques for individuals with degraded WM capacity.

A continuous time-resolved measure decoded from EEG oscillatory activity predicts working memory task performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astrand, Elaine

2018-06-01

Objective. Working memory (WM), crucial for successful behavioral performance in most of our everyday activities, holds a central role in goal-directed behavior. As task demands increase, inducing higher WM load, maintaining successful behavioral performance requires the brain to work at the higher end of its capacity. Because it is depending on both external and internal factors, individual WM load likely varies in a continuous fashion. The feasibility to extract such a continuous measure in time that correlates to behavioral performance during a working memory task remains unsolved. Approach. Multivariate pattern decoding was used to test whether a decoder constructed from two discrete levels of WM load can generalize to produce a continuous measure that predicts task performance. Specifically, a linear regression with L2-regularization was chosen with input features from EEG oscillatory activity recorded from healthy participants while performing the n-back task, n\\in [1,2] . Main results. The feasibility to extract a continuous time-resolved measure that correlates positively to trial-by-trial working memory task performance is demonstrated (r  =  0.47, p  <  0.05). It is furthermore shown that this measure allows to predict task performance before action (r  =  0.49, p  <  0.05). We show that the extracted continuous measure enables to study the temporal dynamics of the complex activation pattern of WM encoding during the n-back task. Specifically, temporally precise contributions of different spectral features are observed which extends previous findings of traditional univariate approaches. Significance. These results constitute an important contribution towards a wide range of applications in the field of cognitive brain–machine interfaces. Monitoring mental processes related to attention and WM load to reduce the risk of committing errors in high-risk environments could potentially prevent many devastating consequences or using the continuous measure as neurofeedback opens up new possibilities to develop novel rehabilitation techniques for individuals with degraded WM capacity.

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric.

PubMed

Skagen, Susan K; Yackel Adams, Amy A

2011-02-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. Journal compilation ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

General predictive model of friction behavior regimes for metal contacts based on the formation stability and evolution of nanocrystalline surface films.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Argibay, Nicolas; Cheng, Shengfeng; Sawyer, W. G.

2015-09-01

The prediction of macro-scale friction and wear behavior based on first principles and material properties has remained an elusive but highly desirable target for tribologists and material scientists alike. Stochastic processes (e.g. wear), statistically described parameters (e.g. surface topography) and their evolution tend to defeat attempts to establish practical general correlations between fundamental nanoscale processes and macro-scale behaviors. We present a model based on microstructural stability and evolution for the prediction of metal friction regimes, founded on recently established microstructural deformation mechanisms of nanocrystalline metals, that relies exclusively on material properties and contact stress models. We show through complementary experimentalmore » and simulation results that this model overcomes longstanding practical challenges and successfully makes accurate and consistent predictions of friction transitions for a wide range of contact conditions. This framework not only challenges the assumptions of conventional causal relationships between hardness and friction, and between friction and wear, but also suggests a pathway for the design of higher performance metal alloys.« less

Modification of Hazen's equation in coarse grained soils by soft computing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaynar, Oguz; Yilmaz, Isik; Marschalko, Marian; Bednarik, Martin; Fojtova, Lucie

2013-04-01

Hazen first proposed a Relationship between coefficient of permeability (k) and effective grain size (d10) was first proposed by Hazen, and it was then extended by some other researchers. However many attempts were done for estimation of k, correlation coefficients (R2) of the models were generally lower than ~0.80 and whole grain size distribution curves were not included in the assessments. Soft computing techniques such as; artificial neural networks, fuzzy inference systems, genetic algorithms, etc. and their hybrids are now being successfully used as an alternative tool. In this study, use of some soft computing techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (MLP, RBF, etc.) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for prediction of permeability of coarse grained soils was described, and Hazen's equation was then modificated. It was found that the soft computing models exhibited high performance in prediction of permeability coefficient. However four different kinds of ANN algorithms showed similar prediction performance, results of MLP was found to be relatively more accurate than RBF models. The most reliable prediction was obtained from ANFIS model.

Prediction of genetic values of quantitative traits with epistatic effects in plant breeding populations.

PubMed

Wang, D; Salah El-Basyoni, I; Stephen Baenziger, P; Crossa, J; Eskridge, K M; Dweikat, I

2012-11-01

Though epistasis has long been postulated to have a critical role in genetic regulation of important pathways as well as provide a major source of variation in the process of speciation, the importance of epistasis for genomic selection in the context of plant breeding is still being debated. In this paper, we report the results on the prediction of genetic values with epistatic effects for 280 accessions in the Nebraska Wheat Breeding Program using adaptive mixed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The development of adaptive mixed LASSO, originally designed for association mapping, for the context of genomic selection is reported. The results show that adaptive mixed LASSO can be successfully applied to the prediction of genetic values while incorporating both marker main effects and epistatic effects. Especially, the prediction accuracy is substantially improved by the inclusion of two-locus epistatic effects (more than onefold in some cases as measured by cross-validation correlation coefficient), which is observed for multiple traits and planting locations. This points to significant potential in using non-additive genetic effects for genomic selection in crop breeding practices.

Improved nonlinear prediction method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Md Noorani, Mohd Salmi

2014-06-01

The analysis and prediction of time series data have been addressed by researchers. Many techniques have been developed to be applied in various areas, such as weather forecasting, financial markets and hydrological phenomena involving data that are contaminated by noise. Therefore, various techniques to improve the method have been introduced to analyze and predict time series data. In respect of the importance of analysis and the accuracy of the prediction result, a study was undertaken to test the effectiveness of the improved nonlinear prediction method for data that contain noise. The improved nonlinear prediction method involves the formation of composite serial data based on the successive differences of the time series. Then, the phase space reconstruction was performed on the composite data (one-dimensional) to reconstruct a number of space dimensions. Finally the local linear approximation method was employed to make a prediction based on the phase space. This improved method was tested with data series Logistics that contain 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 30% of noise. The results show that by using the improved method, the predictions were found to be in close agreement with the observed ones. The correlation coefficient was close to one when the improved method was applied on data with up to 10% noise. Thus, an improvement to analyze data with noise without involving any noise reduction method was introduced to predict the time series data.

The Prediction of Drug-Disease Correlation Based on Gene Expression Data.

PubMed

Cui, Hui; Zhang, Menghuan; Yang, Qingmin; Li, Xiangyi; Liebman, Michael; Yu, Ying; Xie, Lu

2018-01-01

The explosive growth of high-throughput experimental methods and resulting data yields both opportunity and challenge for selecting the correct drug to treat both a specific patient and their individual disease. Ideally, it would be useful and efficient if computational approaches could be applied to help achieve optimal drug-patient-disease matching but current efforts have met with limited success. Current approaches have primarily utilized the measureable effect of a specific drug on target tissue or cell lines to identify the potential biological effect of such treatment. While these efforts have met with some level of success, there exists much opportunity for improvement. This specifically follows the observation that, for many diseases in light of actual patient response, there is increasing need for treatment with combinations of drugs rather than single drug therapies. Only a few previous studies have yielded computational approaches for predicting the synergy of drug combinations by analyzing high-throughput molecular datasets. However, these computational approaches focused on the characteristics of the drug itself, without fully accounting for disease factors. Here, we propose an algorithm to specifically predict synergistic effects of drug combinations on various diseases, by integrating the data characteristics of disease-related gene expression profiles with drug-treated gene expression profiles. We have demonstrated utility through its application to transcriptome data, including microarray and RNASeq data, and the drug-disease prediction results were validated using existing publications and drug databases. It is also applicable to other quantitative profiling data such as proteomics data. We also provide an interactive web interface to allow our Prediction of Drug-Disease method to be readily applied to user data. While our studies represent a preliminary exploration of this critical problem, we believe that the algorithm can provide the basis for further refinement towards addressing a large clinical need.

Thallium myocardial perfusion scans for the assessment of right ventricular hypertrophy in patients with cystic fibrosis. A comparison with other noninvasive techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newth, C.J.; Corey, M.L.; Fowler, R.S.

1981-01-01

The incidence of right ventricular hypertrophy in 32 patients with cystic fibrosis was studied using thallium 201 (TI-201) myocardial perfusion scans, and compared with other noninvasive techniques including electrocardiography, vectorcardiography, and M-mode echocardiography. The patients (mean age, 17.3 yr; range, 7 to 33) had a wide range of clinical and pulmonary abnormalities (mean Shwachman-Kulczycki score, 66.6). In the total study group, TI-201 scans, like the vectorcardiograms and the M-mode echocardiograms, gave a surprisingly high proportion of positive predictions for right ventricular hypertrophy (RVH) (44%). The correlations with all other noninvasive methods were uniformly poor, so caution must be exercised inmore » using this technique to predict early RVH in order to follow the natural history of cor pulmonale in cystic fibrosis. At the time of the study, 6 patients had clinical evidence of right ventricular failure, and in this disease setting must have had RVH. In 3 patients, RVH was confirmed at autopsy, and it was successfully predicted by TI-201 scans in 5 of the 6 patients. The false negative scan may have been due to regional myocardial ischemia secondary to severe right ventricular failure. In contrast, the vectorcardiogram, using Fowler's new criteria, made a successful prediction of RVH in all 6 patients, and the electro cardiogram in only 3. Although the M-mode echocardiogram was abnormal in all patients, it would have predicted RVH (with increased right ventricular anterior wall thickness) in only 1 patient. We concluded that TI-201 myocardial perfusion cans are good at confirming RVH in cases with established right ventricular failure, but have no advantage over vectorcardiographic assessments, which are logistically easier to perform and carry no radiation risks.« less

Prediction of subjective ratings of emotional pictures by EEG features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarland, Dennis J.; Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Sarnacki, William A.; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Wolpaw, Jonathan R.

2017-02-01

Objective. Emotion dysregulation is an important aspect of many psychiatric disorders. Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology could be a powerful new approach to facilitating therapeutic self-regulation of emotions. One possible BCI method would be to provide stimulus-specific feedback based on subject-specific electroencephalographic (EEG) responses to emotion-eliciting stimuli. Approach. To assess the feasibility of this approach, we studied the relationships between emotional valence/arousal and three EEG features: amplitude of alpha activity over frontal cortex; amplitude of theta activity over frontal midline cortex; and the late positive potential over central and posterior mid-line areas. For each feature, we evaluated its ability to predict emotional valence/arousal on both an individual and a group basis. Twenty healthy participants (9 men, 11 women; ages 22-68) rated each of 192 pictures from the IAPS collection in terms of valence and arousal twice (96 pictures on each of 4 d over 2 weeks). EEG was collected simultaneously and used to develop models based on canonical correlation to predict subject-specific single-trial ratings. Separate models were evaluated for the three EEG features: frontal alpha activity; frontal midline theta; and the late positive potential. In each case, these features were used to simultaneously predict both the normed ratings and the subject-specific ratings. Main results. Models using each of the three EEG features with data from individual subjects were generally successful at predicting subjective ratings on training data, but generalization to test data was less successful. Sparse models performed better than models without regularization. Significance. The results suggest that the frontal midline theta is a better candidate than frontal alpha activity or the late positive potential for use in a BCI-based paradigm designed to modify emotional reactions.

Predicting length of stay from an electronic patient record system: a primary total knee replacement example.

PubMed

Carter, Evelene M; Potts, Henry W W

2014-04-04

To investigate whether factors can be identified that significantly affect hospital length of stay from those available in an electronic patient record system, using primary total knee replacements as an example. To investigate whether a model can be produced to predict the length of stay based on these factors to help resource planning and patient expectations on their length of stay. Data were extracted from the electronic patient record system for discharges from primary total knee operations from January 2007 to December 2011 (n=2,130) at one UK hospital and analysed for their effect on length of stay using Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests for discrete data and Spearman's correlation coefficient for continuous data. Models for predicting length of stay for primary total knee replacements were tested using the Poisson regression and the negative binomial modelling techniques. Factors found to have a significant effect on length of stay were age, gender, consultant, discharge destination, deprivation and ethnicity. Applying a negative binomial model to these variables was successful. The model predicted the length of stay of those patients who stayed 4-6 days (~50% of admissions) with 75% accuracy within 2 days (model data). Overall, the model predicted the total days stayed over 5 years to be only 88 days more than actual, a 6.9% uplift (test data). Valuable information can be found about length of stay from the analysis of variables easily extracted from an electronic patient record system. Models can be successfully created to help improve resource planning and from which a simple decision support system can be produced to help patient expectation on their length of stay.

Literature Review on Concurrent Dual Career Development in the URL (unrestricted Line)

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

Career Development Systems, (3) Multiple Career Paths in Organizations, (4) Skills Required for Management, (5) Predicting Career Success , (6) Skill...10 Sum m ary .............................................................. 11 Predicting Career Success ................................................. 11...Career Paths in Organizations, (4) Skills Required for Management, (5) Predicting Career Success , (6) Skill Requirements of Jobs, (7) Formal Training, (8

Investigating the Functional Utility of the Left Parietal ERP Old/New Effect: Brain Activity Predicts within But Not between Participant Variance in Episodic Recollection.

PubMed

MacLeod, Catherine A; Donaldson, David I

2017-01-01

A success story within neuroimaging has been the discovery of distinct neural correlates of episodic retrieval, providing insight into the processes that support memory for past life events. Here we focus on one commonly reported neural correlate, the left parietal old/new effect, a positive going modulation seen in event-related potential (ERP) data that is widely considered to index episodic recollection. Substantial evidence links changes in the size of the left parietal effect to changes in remembering, but the precise functional utility of the effect remains unclear. Here, using forced choice recognition of verbal stimuli, we present a novel population level test of the hypothesis that the magnitude of the left parietal effect correlates with memory performance. We recorded ERPs during old/new recognition, source accuracy and Remember/Know/Guess tasks in two large samples of healthy young adults, and successfully replicated existing within participant modulations of the magnitude of the left parietal effect with recollection. Critically, however, both datasets also show that across participants the magnitude of the left parietal effect does not correlate with behavioral measures of memory - including both subjective and objective estimates of recollection. We conclude that in these tasks, and across this healthy young adult population, the generators of the left parietal ERP effect do not index performance as expected. Taken together, these novel findings provide important constraints on the functional interpretation of the left parietal effect, suggesting that between group differences in the magnitude of old/new effects cannot always safely be used to infer differences in recollection.

Predicting carcinogenicity of diverse chemicals using probabilistic neural network modeling approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com; Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001; Gupta, Shikha

Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models wasmore » performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and predictive abilities of the interspecies GRNN model to predict the carcinogenic potency of diverse chemicals. - Highlights: • Global robust models constructed for carcinogenicity prediction of diverse chemicals. • Tanimoto/BDS test revealed structural diversity of chemicals and nonlinearity in data. • PNN/GRNN successfully predicted carcinogenicity/carcinogenic potency of chemicals. • Developed interspecies PNN/GRNN models for carcinogenicity prediction. • Proposed models can be used as tool to predict carcinogenicity of new chemicals.« less

"Eyeball test" of thermographic patterns for predicting a successful lateral infraclavicular block.

PubMed

Andreasen, Asger M; Linnet, Karen E; Asghar, Semera; Rothe, Christian; Rosenstock, Charlotte V; Lange, Kai H W; Lundstrøm, Lars H

2017-11-01

Increased distal skin temperature can be used to predict the success of lateral infraclavicular (LIC) block. We hypothesized that an "eyeball test" of specific infrared thermographic patterns after LIC block could be used to determine block success. In this observational study, five observers trained in four distinct thermographic patterns independently evaluated thermographic images of the hands of 40 patients at baseline and at one-minute intervals for 30 min after a LIC block. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a positive and a negative test were estimated to evaluate the validity of specific thermographic patterns for predicting a successful block. Sensory and motor block of the musculocutaneous, radial, ulnar, and median nerves defined block success. Fleiss' kappa statistics of multiple interobserver agreements were used to evaluate reliability. As a diagnostic test, the defined specific thermographic patterns of the hand predicted a successful block with increasing accuracy over the 30-min observation period. Block success was predicted with a sensitivity of 92.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 86.8 to 96.2) and with a specificity of 84.0% (95% CI, 70.3 to 92.4) at min 30. The Fleiss' kappa for the five observers was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.96). We conclude that visual evaluation by an eyeball test of specific thermographic patterns of the blocked hands may be useful as a valid and reliable diagnostic test for predicting a successful LIC block.

Content of intrinsic disorder influences the outcome of cell-free protein synthesis.

PubMed

Tokmakov, Alexander A; Kurotani, Atsushi; Ikeda, Mariko; Terazawa, Yumiko; Shirouzu, Mikako; Stefanov, Vasily; Sakurai, Tetsuya; Yokoyama, Shigeyuki

2015-09-11

Cell-free protein synthesis is used to produce proteins with various structural traits. Recent bioinformatics analyses indicate that more than half of eukaryotic proteins possess long intrinsically disordered regions. However, no systematic study concerning the connection between intrinsic disorder and expression success of cell-free protein synthesis has been presented until now. To address this issue, we examined correlations of the experimentally observed cell-free protein expression yields with the contents of intrinsic disorder bioinformatically predicted in the expressed sequences. This analysis revealed strong relationships between intrinsic disorder and protein amenability to heterologous cell-free expression. On the one hand, elevated disorder content was associated with the increased ratio of soluble expression. On the other hand, overall propensity for detectable protein expression decreased with disorder content. We further demonstrated that these tendencies are rooted in some distinct features of intrinsically disordered regions, such as low hydrophobicity, elevated surface accessibility and high abundance of sequence motifs for proteolytic degradation, including sites of ubiquitination and PEST sequences. Our findings suggest that identification of intrinsically disordered regions in the expressed amino acid sequences can be of practical use for predicting expression success and optimizing cell-free protein synthesis.

Integrating toxicity risk in bird eggs and chicks: using chick down feathers to estimate mercury concentrations in eggs.

PubMed

Ackerman, Joshua T; Eagles-Smith, Collin A

2009-03-15

The concentration of mercury (Hg) in eggs that causes reduced hatching success is regarded as a critical end point for Hg toxicity in birds. However, incorporating effects of in ovo mercury exposure on chick health and survival could improve risk assessment. We developed equations to predict Hg in eggs using Hg in chick down feathers, and vice versa, by assessing the relationship between Hg in feathers (0.5-32.4 microg g(-1) fw) and eggs (0.04-2.79 microg g(-1) fww) for three waterbird species in San Francisco Bay, CA. Feather Hg sampled from embryos of pipping eggs was highly correlated with fresh whole-egg Hg (n=94, r2 = 0.96). Additionally, using an egg microsampling technique, albumen Hg was correlated with feather Hg sampled from chicks in the same nest (n=28, r2 = 0.79). Down feather Hg in recaptured chicks (< or =10 days old) was correlated with down feather Hg at hatching (< or =3 days old; n=88, r2 = 0.74). Our results demonstrate the utility of using down feathers of chicks < or =10 days of age to nonlethally predict Hg in eggs and thus provide the ability to develop exposure thresholds for eggs that incorporate in ovo Hg's effects on both egg hatchability and subsequent chick mortality.

Integrating toxicity risk in bird eggs and chicks: Using chick down feathers to estimate mercury concentrations in eggs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.

2009-01-01

The concentration of mercury (Hg) in eggs that causes reduced hatching success is regarded as a critical end point for Hg toxicity in birds. However, incorporating effects of in ovo mercury exposure on chick health and survival could improve risk assessment. We developed equations to predict Hg in eggs using Hg in chick down feathers, and vice versa, by assessing the relationship between Hg in feathers (0.5−32.4 μg g−1 fw) and eggs (0.04−2.79 μg g−1 fww) for three waterbird species in San Francisco Bay, CA. Feather Hg sampled from embryos of pipping eggs was highly correlated with fresh whole-egg Hg (n = 94, r2 = 0.96). Additionally, using an egg microsampling technique, albumen Hg was correlated with feather Hg sampled from chicks in the same nest (n = 28, r2 = 0.79). Down feather Hg in recaptured chicks (≤10 days old) was correlated with down feather Hg at hatching (≤3 days old; n = 88, r2 = 0.74). Our results demonstrate the utility of using down feathers of chicks ≤10 days of age to nonlethally predict Hg in eggs and thus provide the ability to develop exposure thresholds for eggs that incorporate in ovo Hg’s effects on both egg hatchability and subsequent chick mortality.

Choose and choose again: appearance-reality errors, pragmatics and logical ability.

PubMed

Deák, Gedeon O; Enright, Brian

2006-05-01

In the Appearance/Reality (AR) task some 3- and 4-year-old children make perseverative errors: they choose the same word for the appearance and the function of a deceptive object. Are these errors specific to the AR task, or signs of a general question-answering problem? Preschoolers completed five tasks: AR; simple successive forced-choice question pairs (QP); flexible naming of objects (FN); working memory (WM) span; and indeterminacy detection (ID). AR errors correlated with QP errors. Insensitivity to indeterminacy predicted perseveration in both tasks. Neither WM span nor flexible naming predicted other measures. Age predicted sensitivity to indeterminacy. These findings suggest that AR tests measure a pragmatic understanding; specifically, different questions about a topic usually call for different answers. This understanding is related to the ability to detect indeterminacy of each question in a series. AR errors are unrelated to the ability to represent an object as belonging to multiple categories, to working memory span, or to inhibiting previously activated words.

Nonlinear Prediction As A Tool For Determining Parameters For Phase Space Reconstruction In Meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miksovsky, J.; Raidl, A.

Time delays phase space reconstruction represents one of useful tools of nonlinear time series analysis, enabling number of applications. Its utilization requires the value of time delay to be known, as well as the value of embedding dimension. There are sev- eral methods how to estimate both these parameters. Typically, time delay is computed first, followed by embedding dimension. Our presented approach is slightly different - we reconstructed phase space for various combinations of mentioned parameters and used it for prediction by means of the nearest neighbours in the phase space. Then some measure of prediction's success was computed (correlation or RMSE, e.g.). The position of its global maximum (minimum) should indicate the suitable combination of time delay and embedding dimension. Several meteorological (particularly clima- tological) time series were used for the computations. We have also created a MS- Windows based program in order to implement this approach - its basic features will be presented as well.

Social learning through prediction error in the brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joiner, Jessica; Piva, Matthew; Turrin, Courtney; Chang, Steve W. C.

2017-06-01

Learning about the world is critical to survival and success. In social animals, learning about others is a necessary component of navigating the social world, ultimately contributing to increasing evolutionary fitness. How humans and nonhuman animals represent the internal states and experiences of others has long been a subject of intense interest in the developmental psychology tradition, and, more recently, in studies of learning and decision making involving self and other. In this review, we explore how psychology conceptualizes the process of representing others, and how neuroscience has uncovered correlates of reinforcement learning signals to explore the neural mechanisms underlying social learning from the perspective of representing reward-related information about self and other. In particular, we discuss self-referenced and other-referenced types of reward prediction errors across multiple brain structures that effectively allow reinforcement learning algorithms to mediate social learning. Prediction-based computational principles in the brain may be strikingly conserved between self-referenced and other-referenced information.

The Genetics of Success: How SNPs Associated with Educational Attainment Relate to Life-Course Development

PubMed Central

Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Corcoran, David L; Domingue, Benjamin; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

2016-01-01

Previous genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of >100,000 individuals identified molecular-genetic predictors of educational attainment. We undertook in-depth life-course investigation of the polygenic score derived from this GWAS using the four-decade Dunedin Study (N=918). There were five main findings. First, polygenic scores predicted adult economic outcomes over and above completed education. Second, genes and environments were correlated; children with higher polygenic scores were born into better-off homes. Third, polygenic scores predicted children’s adult outcomes net of social-class origins; children with higher scores tended to be upwardly-socially-mobile. Fourth, polygenic scores predicted behavior across the life-course, from learning to talk earlier to acquiring reading skills more quickly, through geographic mobility and mate choice, on to financial planning for retirement. Fifth, polygenic-score associations were mediated by psychological characteristics including intelligence, self-control, and interpersonal skill. Effects were small. Factors connecting DNA sequence with life outcomes may provide targets for interventions to promote population-wide positive development. PMID:27251486

Non-destructive assessment of instrumental and sensory tenderness of lamb meat using NIR hyperspectral imaging.

PubMed

Kamruzzaman, Mohammed; Elmasry, Gamal; Sun, Da-Wen; Allen, Paul

2013-11-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a hyperspectral imaging system (900-1700 nm) to predict instrumental and sensory tenderness of lamb meat. Warner-Bratzler shear force (WBSF) values and sensory scores by trained panellists were collected as the indicator of instrumental and sensory tenderness, respectively. Partial least squares regression models were developed for predicting instrumental and sensory tenderness with reasonable accuracy (Rcv=0.84 for WBSF and 0.69 for sensory tenderness). Overall, the results confirmed that the spectral data could become an interesting screening tool to quickly categorise lamb steaks in good (i.e. tender) and bad (i.e. tough) based on WBSF values and sensory scores with overall accuracy of about 94.51% and 91%, respectively. Successive projections algorithm (SPA) was used to select the most important wavelengths for WBSF prediction. Additionally, textural features from Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) were extracted to determine the correlation between textural features and WBSF values. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Success Avoidant Motivation and Behavior; Its Development Correlates and Situational Determinants. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horner, Matina S.

This paper reports on a successful attempt to understand success avoidant motivation and behavior by the development of an empirically sophisticated scoring system of success avoidant motivation and the observation of its behavioral correlates and situational determinants. Like most of the work on achievement motivation, the study was carried out…

Prediction of Shrinkage Porosity Defect in Sand Casting Process of LM25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rathod, Hardik; Dhulia, Jay K.; Maniar, Nirav P.

2017-08-01

In the present worldwide and aggressive environment, foundry commercial enterprises need to perform productively with least number of rejections and create casting parts in shortest lead time. It has become extremely difficult for foundry industries to meet demands of defects free casting and meet strict delivery schedules. The process of casting solidification is complex in nature. Prediction of shrinkage defect in metal casting is one of the critical concern in foundries and is one of the potential research areas in casting. Due to increasing pressure to improve quality and to reduce cost, it is very essential to upgrade the level of current methodology used in foundries. In the present research work, prediction methodology of shrinkage porosity defect in sand casting process of LM25 using experimentation and ANSYS is proposed. The objectives successfully achieved are prediction of shrinkage porosity distribution in Al-Si casting and determining effectiveness of investigated function for predicting shrinkage porosity by correlating results of simulating studies to those obtained experimentally. The real-time application of the research reflects from the fact that experimentation is performed on 9 different Y junctions at foundry industry and practical data obtained from experimentation are used for simulation.

Use of a pretest strategy for physical therapist assistant programs to predict success rate on the national physical therapy exam.

PubMed

Sloas, Stacey B; Keith, Becky; Whitehead, Malcolm T

2013-01-01

This study investigated a pretest strategy that identified physical therapist assistant (PTA) students who were at risk of failure on the National Physical Therapy Examination (NPTE). Program assessment data from five cohorts of PTA students (2005-2009) were used to develop a stepwise multiple regression formula that predicted first-time NPTE licensure scores. Data used included the Nelson-Denny Reading Test, grades from eight core courses, grade point average upon admission to the program, and scores from three mock NPTE exams given during the program. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the 15 variables and NPTE scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed using data collected at the ends of the first, second, and third (final) semesters of the program. Data from the class of 2010 were then used to validate the formula. The end-of-program formula accounted for the greatest variance (57%) in predicted scores. Those students scoring below a predicted scaled score of 620 were identified to be at risk of failure of the licensure exam. These students were counseled, and a remedial plan was developed based on regression predictions prior to them sitting for the licensure exam.

Effects of Humidity Swings on Adsorption Columns for Air Revitalization: Modeling and Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeVan, M. Douglas; Finn, John E.

1997-01-01

The goal of this research was to develop a dynamic model which can predict the effect of humidity swings on activated carbon adsorption beds used to remove trace contaminants from the atmosphere in spacecraft. Specifically, the model was to be incorporated into a computer simulation to predict contaminant concentrations exiting the bed as a function of time after a humidity swing occurs. Predicted breakthrough curves were to be compared to experimentally measured results. In all respects the research was successful. The two major aspects of this research were the mathematical model and the experiments. Experiments were conducted by Mr. Appel using a fixed-bed apparatus at NASA-Ames Research Center during the summers of 1994 and 1995 and during the first 8 months of 1996. Mr. Appel conducted most of his mathematical modeling work at the University of Virginia. The simulation code was used to predict breakthrough curves using adsorption equilibrium correlations developed previously by M. D. LeVan's research group at the University of Virginia. These predictions were compared with the experimental measurements, and this led to improvements in both the simulation code and the apparatus.

Predicting aged pork quality using a portable Raman device.

PubMed

Santos, C C; Zhao, J; Dong, X; Lonergan, S M; Huff-Lonergan, E; Outhouse, A; Carlson, K B; Prusa, K J; Fedler, C A; Yu, C; Shackelford, S D; King, D A; Wheeler, T L

2018-05-29

The utility of Raman spectroscopic signatures of fresh pork loin (1 d & 15 d postmortem) in predicting fresh pork tenderness and slice shear force (SSF) was determined. Partial least square models showed that sensory tenderness and SSF are weakly correlated (R 2  = 0.2). Raman spectral data were collected in 6 s using a portable Raman spectrometer (RS). A PLS regression model was developed to predict quantitatively the tenderness scores and SSF values from Raman spectral data, with very limited success. It was discovered that the prediction accuracies for day 15 post mortem samples are significantly greater than that for day 1 postmortem samples. Classification models were developed to predict tenderness at two ends of sensory quality as "poor" vs. "good". The accuracies of classification into different quality categories (1st to 4th percentile) are also greater for the day 15 postmortem samples for sensory tenderness (93.5% vs 76.3%) and SSF (92.8% vs 76.1%). RS has the potential to become a rapid on-line screening tool for the pork producers to quickly select meats with superior quality and/or cull poor quality to meet market demand/expectations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Dortmund Data Bank: A computerized system for retrieval, correlation, and prediction of thermodynamic properties of mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onken, U.; Rarey-Nies, J.; Gmehling, J.

1989-05-01

The Dortmund Data Bank (DDB) was started in 1973 with the intention to employ the vast store of vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) data from the literature for the development of models for the prediction of VLE. From the beginning, the structure of the DDB has been organized in such a way that it was possible to take advantage of the full potential of electronic computers. With the experience gained in fitting and processing VLE data, we extended the DDB system to other types of mixture properties, i.e., liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE), gas solubilities (GLE), activity coefficients at infinite dilution γ∞, heats of mixing ( h E), and excess heat capacities. Besides the files for mixture properties, the DDB contains pure-component data and program packages for various applications. New experimental data are checked for consistency before they are stored. For data retrieval user-specified search masks can be used. The data files are available via an online data service and through the Dechema Chemistry Data Series. For the purpose of data correlation and model testing, parameter fitting is performed with an optimization routine (Nelder-Mead). In the past years the DDB system has been successfully employed for the development of prediction methods for VLE, LLE, GLE, γ∞, and h E (UNIFAC, mod. UNIFAC, etc.).

Predicting galaxy star formation rates via the co-evolution of galaxies and haloes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.; van den Bosch, Frank C.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy of fixed stellar mass is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, e.g. more quiescent galaxies reside in older haloes. We present new Sloan Digital Sky Survey measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star-forming galaxy samples to test this simple model. We find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also find that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an ˜r-.15 slope, independent of environment. These accurate predictions are intriguing given that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.

Load-related brain activation predicts spatial working memory performance in youth aged 9–12 and is associated with executive function at earlier ages

PubMed Central

Huang, Anna S.; Klein, Daniel N.; Leung, Hoi-Chung

2015-01-01

Spatial working memory is a central cognitive process that matures through adolescence in conjunction with major changes in brain function and anatomy. Here we focused on late childhood and early adolescence to more closely examine the neural correlates of performance variability during this important transition period. Using a modified spatial 1-back task with two memory load conditions in an fMRI study, we examined the relationship between load-dependent neural responses and task performance in a sample of 39 youth aged 9–12 years. Our data revealed that between-subject differences in task performance was predicted by load-dependent deactivation in default network regions, including the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (vACC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). Although load-dependent increases in activation in prefrontal and posterior parietal regions were only weakly correlated with performance, increased prefrontal-parietal coupling was associated with better performance. Furthermore, behavioral measures of executive function from as early as age 3 predicted current load-dependent deactivation in vACC and PCC. These findings suggest that both task positive and task negative brain activation during spatial working memory contributed to successful task performance in late childhood/early adolescence. This may serve as a good model for studying executive control deficits in developmental disorders. PMID:26562059

Load-related brain activation predicts spatial working memory performance in youth aged 9-12 and is associated with executive function at earlier ages.

PubMed

Huang, Anna S; Klein, Daniel N; Leung, Hoi-Chung

2016-02-01

Spatial working memory is a central cognitive process that matures through adolescence in conjunction with major changes in brain function and anatomy. Here we focused on late childhood and early adolescence to more closely examine the neural correlates of performance variability during this important transition period. Using a modified spatial 1-back task with two memory load conditions in an fMRI study, we examined the relationship between load-dependent neural responses and task performance in a sample of 39 youth aged 9-12 years. Our data revealed that between-subject differences in task performance was predicted by load-dependent deactivation in default network regions, including the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (vACC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). Although load-dependent increases in activation in prefrontal and posterior parietal regions were only weakly correlated with performance, increased prefrontal-parietal coupling was associated with better performance. Furthermore, behavioral measures of executive function from as early as age 3 predicted current load-dependent deactivation in vACC and PCC. These findings suggest that both task positive and task negative brain activation during spatial working memory contributed to successful task performance in late childhood/early adolescence. This may serve as a good model for studying executive control deficits in developmental disorders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Qualitative and quantitative prediction of volatile compounds from initial amino acid profiles in Korean rice wine (makgeolli) model.

PubMed

Kang, Bo-Sik; Lee, Jang-Eun; Park, Hyun-Jin

2014-06-01

In Korean rice wine (makgeolli) model, we tried to develop a prediction model capable of eliciting a quantitative relationship between initial amino acids in makgeolli mash and major aromatic compounds, such as fusel alcohols, their acetate esters, and ethyl esters of fatty acids, in makgeolli brewed. Mass-spectrometry-based electronic nose (MS-EN) was used to qualitatively discriminate between makgeollis made from makgeolli mashes with different amino acid compositions. Following this measurement, headspace solid-phase microextraction coupled to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) combined with partial least-squares regression (PLSR) method was employed to quantitatively correlate amino acid composition of makgeolli mash with major aromatic compounds evolved during makgeolli fermentation. In qualitative prediction with MS-EN analysis, the makgeollis were well discriminated according to the volatile compounds derived from amino acids of makgeolli mash. Twenty-seven ion fragments with mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) of 55 to 98 amu were responsible for the discrimination. In GC-MS combined with PLSR method, a quantitative approach between the initial amino acids of makgeolli mash and the fusel compounds of makgeolli demonstrated that coefficient of determination (R(2)) of most of the fusel compounds ranged from 0.77 to 0.94 in good correlation, except for 2-phenylethanol (R(2) = 0.21), whereas R(2) for ethyl esters of MCFAs including ethyl caproate, ethyl caprylate, and ethyl caprate was 0.17 to 0.40 in poor correlation. The amino acids have been known to affect the aroma in alcoholic beverages. In this study, we demonstrated that an electronic nose qualitatively differentiated Korean rice wines (makgeollis) by their volatile compounds evolved from amino acids with rapidity and reproducibility and successively, a quantitative correlation with acceptable R2 between amino acids and fusel compounds could be established via HS-SPME GC-MS combined with partial least-squares regression. Our approach for predicting the quantities of volatile compounds in the finished product from initial condition of fermentation will give an insight to food researchers to modify and optimize the qualities of the corresponding products. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

A simple nonlinear model for the return to isotropy in turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarkar, Sutanu; Speziale, Charles G.

1989-01-01

A quadratic nonlinear generalization of the linear Rotta model for the slow pressure-strain correlation of turbulence is developed. The model is shown to satisfy realizability and to give rise to no stable non-trivial equilibrium solutions for the anisotropy tensor in the case of vanishing mean velocity gradients. The absence of stable non-trivial equilibrium solutions is a necessary condition to ensure that the model predicts a return to isotropy for all relaxational turbulent flows. Both the phase space dynamics and the temporal behavior of the model are examined and compared against experimental data for the return to isotropy problem. It is demonstrated that the quadratic model successfully captures the experimental trends which clearly exhibit nonlinear behavior. Direct comparisons are also made with the predictions of the Rotta model and the Lumley model.

Mind the gap: bridging economic and naturalistic risk-taking with cognitive neuroscience.

PubMed

Schonberg, Tom; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A

2011-01-01

Economists define risk in terms of the variability of possible outcomes, whereas clinicians and laypeople generally view risk as exposure to possible loss or harm. Neuroeconomic studies using relatively simple behavioral tasks have identified a network of brain regions that respond to economic risk, but these studies have had limited success predicting naturalistic risk-taking. By contrast, more complex behavioral tasks developed by clinicians (e.g. Balloon Analogue Risk Task and Iowa Gambling Task) correlate with naturalistic risk-taking but resist decomposition into distinct cognitive constructs. We propose here that to bridge this gap and better understand neural substrates of naturalistic risk-taking, new tasks are needed that: are decomposable into basic cognitive and/or economic constructs; predict naturalistic risk-taking; and engender dynamic, affective engagement. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification and targeting of a TACE-dependent autocrine loopwhich predicts poor prognosis in breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kenny, Paraic A.; Bissell, Mina J.

2005-06-15

The ability to proliferate independently of signals from other cell types is a fundamental characteristic of tumor cells. Using a 3D culture model of human breast cancer progression, we have delineated a protease-dependent autocrine loop which provides an oncogenic stimulus in the absence of proto-oncogene mutation. Inhibition of this protease, TACE/ADAM17, reverts the malignant phenotype by preventing mobilization of two crucial growth factors, Amphiregulin and TGF{alpha}. We show further that the efficacy of EGFR inhibitors is overcome by physiological levels of growth factors and that successful EGFR inhibition is dependent on reducing ligand bioavailability. Using existing patient outcome data, wemore » demonstrate a strong correlation between TACE and TGF{alpha} expression in human breast cancers that is predictive of poor prognosis.« less

An experimental investigation of compressor stall using an on-line distortion indicator and signal conditioner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costakis, W. G.; Wenzel, L. M.

1975-01-01

The relation of the steady-state and dynamic distortions and the stall margin of a J85-13 turbojet engine was investigated. A distortion indicator capable of computing two distortion indices was used. A special purpose signal conditioner was also used as an interface between transducer signals and distortion indicator. A good correlation of steady-state distortion and stall margin was established. The prediction of stall by using the indices as instantaneous distortion indicators was not successful. A sensitivity factor that related the loss of stall margin to the turbulence level was found.

Ball Bearing Analysis with the ORBIS Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpin, Jacob D.

2016-01-01

Ball bearing design is critical to the success of aerospace mechanisms. Key bearing performance parameters, such as load capability, stiffness, torque, and life all depend on accurate determination of the internal load distribution. Hence, a good analytical bearing tool that provides both comprehensive capabilities and reliable results becomes a significant asset to the engineer. This paper introduces the ORBIS bearing tool. A discussion of key modeling assumptions and a technical overview is provided. Numerous validation studies and case studies using the ORBIS tool are presented. All results suggest the ORBIS code closely correlates to predictions on bearing internal load distributions, stiffness, deflection and stresses.

The effect of attending tutoring on course grades in Calculus I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickard, Brian; Mills, Melissa

2018-04-01

Tutoring centres are common in universities in the United States, but there are few published studies that statistically examine the effects of tutoring on student success. This study utilizes multiple regression analysis to model the effect of tutoring attendance on final course grades in Calculus I. Our model predicted that every three visits to the tutoring centre is correlated with an increase of a students' course grade by one per cent, after controlling for prior academic ability. We also found that for lower-achieving students, attending tutoring had a greater impact on final grades.

Analysis of the Shuttle Orbiter reinforced carbon-carbon oxidation protection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, S. D.; Curry, Donald M.; Chao, Dennis; Pham, Vuong T.

1994-01-01

Reusable, oxidation-protected reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) has been successfully flown on all Shuttle Orbiter flights. Thermal testing of the silicon carbide-coated RCC to determine its oxidation characteristics has been performed in convective (plasma Arc-Jet) heating facilities. Surface sealant mass loss was characterized as a function of temperature and pressure. High-temperature testing was performed to develop coating recession correlations for predicting performance at the over-temperature flight conditions associated with abort trajectories. Methods for using these test data to establish multi-mission re-use (i.e., mission life) and single mission limits are presented.

The birth canal: correlation between the pubic arch angle, the interspinous diameter, and the obstetrical conjugate: a computed tomography biometric study in reproductive age women.

PubMed

Perlman, Sharon; Raviv-Zilka, Lisa; Levinsky, Denis; Gidron, Ayelet; Achiron, Reuven; Gilboa, Yinon; Kivilevitch, Zvi

2018-04-22

Assessment of pelvic configuration is an important factor in the prediction of a successful vaginal birth. However, manual evaluation of the pelvis is practically a vanishing art, and imaging techniques are not available as a real-time bed-side tool. Unlike the obstetrical conjugate diameter (OC) and inter spinous diameter (ISD), the pubic arch angle (PAA) can be easily measured by transperineal ultrasound. Three-dimensional computed tomography bone reconstructions were used to measure the three main birth canal diameters, evaluate the correlation between them, and establish the normal reference range for the inlet, mid-, and pelvic outlet. Measurements of the PAA, obstetric conjugate (OC), and ISD were performed offline using three-dimensional post processing reconstruction in bone algorithm application of the pelvis on examinations performed for suspected renal colic in nonpregnant reproductive age woman. The mean of two measurements was used for statistical analysis which included reproducibility of measurements, regression curve estimation between PAA, OC, and ISD, and calculation of the respective reference range centiles for each PAA degree. Two hundred ninety-eight women comprised the study group. The mean ± SD of the PAA, ISD, and OC were 104.9° (±7.4), 103.8 mm (±7.3), and 129.9 mm (±8.3), respectively. The intra- and interobserver agreement defined by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was excellent for all parameters (range 0.905-0.993). A significant positive correlation was found between PAA and ISD and between PAA and OCD (Pearson's correlation = 0.373 (p < .001), and 0.163 (p = .022), respectively). The best regression formula was found with quadratic regression for inter spinous diameter (ISD): 34.122778 + (0.962182*PAA - 0.002830*PAA 2 ), and linear regression for obstetric conjugate (OC): 110.638397 + 0.183156*PAA. Modeled mean, SD, and reference centiles of the ISD and OCD were calculated using the above regression models as function of the PAA. We report significant correlation between the three pelvic landmarks with greatest impact on the prediction of a successful vaginal delivery: the PAA which is easily measured sonographically and the ISD and OC which are not measurable by ultrasound. This correlation may serve as a basis for future studies to assess its utility and prognostic value for a safe vaginal delivery.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Individual differences in self-reported self-control predict successful emotion regulation

PubMed Central

Dörfel, Denise; Steimke, Rosa; Trempler, Ima; Magrabi, Amadeus; Ludwig, Vera U.; Schubert, Torsten; Stelzel, Christine; Walter, Henrik

2016-01-01

Both self-control and emotion regulation enable individuals to adapt to external circumstances and social contexts, and both are assumed to rely on the overlapping neural resources. Here, we tested whether high self-reported self-control is related to successful emotion regulation on the behavioral and neural level. One hundred eight participants completed three self-control questionnaires and regulated their negative emotions during functional magnetic resonance imaging using reappraisal (distancing). Trait self-control correlated positively with successful emotion regulation both subjectively and neurally, as indicated by online ratings of negative emotions and functional connectivity strength between the amygdala and prefrontal areas, respectively. This stronger overall connectivity of the left amygdala was related to more successful subjective emotion regulation. Comparing amygdala activity over time showed that high self-controllers successfully maintained down-regulation of the left amygdala over time, while low self-controllers failed to down-regulate towards the end of the experiment. This indicates that high self-controllers are better at maintaining a motivated state supporting emotion regulation over time. Our results support assumptions concerning a close relation of self-control and emotion regulation as two domains of behavioral control. They further indicate that individual differences in functional connectivity between task-related brain areas directly relate to differences in trait self-control. PMID:27013102

Prediction of Injuries and Injury Types in Army Basic Training, Infantry, Armor, and Cavalry Trainees Using a Common Fitness Screen.

PubMed

Sefton, JoEllen M; Lohse, K R; McAdam, J S

2016-11-01

 Musculoskeletal injuries (MSIs) are among the most important challenges facing our military. They influence career success and directly affect military readiness. Several methods of screening initial entry training (IET) soldiers are being tested in an effort to predict which soldiers will sustain an MSI and to develop injury-prevention programs. The Army 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment was examined to determine if it could be used as a screening and MSI prediction mechanism in male IET soldiers.  To determine if a relationship existed among the Army 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment results and MSI, MSI type, and program of instruction (POI) in male IET soldiers.  Retrospective cohort study.  Fort Benning, Georgia.  Male Army IET soldiers (N = 1788).  The likelihood of sustaining acute and overuse MSI was modelled using separate logistic regression analyses. The POI, run time, push-ups and sit-ups (combined into a single score), and IET soldier age were tested as predictors in a series of linear models.  With POI controlled, slower run time, fewer push-ups and sit-ups, and older age were positively correlated with acute MSI; only slower run time was correlated with overuse MSI. For both MSI types, cavalry POIs had a higher risk of acute and overuse MSIs than did basic combat training, armor, or infantry POIs.  The 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment predicted both the likelihood of MSI occurrence and type of MSI (acute or overuse). One-mile (1.6-km) run time predicted both overuse and acute MSIs, whereas the combined push-up and sit-up score predicted only acute MSIs. The MSIs varied by type of training (infantry, basic, armor, cavalry), which allowed the development of prediction equations by POI. We determined 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment cutoff scores for each event, thereby allowing the evaluation to be used as an MSI screening mechanism for IET soldiers.

Prediction of Injuries and Injury Types in Army Basic Training, Infantry, Armor, and Cavalry Trainees Using a Common Fitness Screen

PubMed Central

Sefton, JoEllen M.; Lohse, K. R.; McAdam, J. S.

2016-01-01

Context: Musculoskeletal injuries (MSIs) are among the most important challenges facing our military. They influence career success and directly affect military readiness. Several methods of screening initial entry training (IET) soldiers are being tested in an effort to predict which soldiers will sustain an MSI and to develop injury-prevention programs. The Army 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment was examined to determine if it could be used as a screening and MSI prediction mechanism in male IET soldiers. Objective: To determine if a relationship existed among the Army 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment results and MSI, MSI type, and program of instruction (POI) in male IET soldiers. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Fort Benning, Georgia. Patients or Other Participants: Male Army IET soldiers (N = 1788). Main Outcome Measure(s): The likelihood of sustaining acute and overuse MSI was modelled using separate logistic regression analyses. The POI, run time, push-ups and sit-ups (combined into a single score), and IET soldier age were tested as predictors in a series of linear models. Results: With POI controlled, slower run time, fewer push-ups and sit-ups, and older age were positively correlated with acute MSI; only slower run time was correlated with overuse MSI. For both MSI types, cavalry POIs had a higher risk of acute and overuse MSIs than did basic combat training, armor, or infantry POIs. Conclusions: The 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment predicted both the likelihood of MSI occurrence and type of MSI (acute or overuse). One-mile (1.6-km) run time predicted both overuse and acute MSIs, whereas the combined push-up and sit-up score predicted only acute MSIs. The MSIs varied by type of training (infantry, basic, armor, cavalry), which allowed the development of prediction equations by POI. We determined 1-1-1 Fitness Assessment cutoff scores for each event, thereby allowing the evaluation to be used as an MSI screening mechanism for IET soldiers. PMID:28068160

Learning Temporal Statistics for Sensory Predictions in Aging.

PubMed

Luft, Caroline Di Bernardi; Baker, Rosalind; Goldstone, Aimee; Zhang, Yang; Kourtzi, Zoe

2016-03-01

Predicting future events based on previous knowledge about the environment is critical for successful everyday interactions. Here, we ask which brain regions support our ability to predict the future based on implicit knowledge about the past in young and older age. Combining behavioral and fMRI measurements, we test whether training on structured temporal sequences improves the ability to predict upcoming sensory events; we then compare brain regions involved in learning predictive structures between young and older adults. Our behavioral results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates the ability of young and older adults to predict the orientation of an upcoming stimulus. Our fMRI results provide evidence for the involvement of corticostriatal regions in learning predictive structures in both young and older learners. In particular, we showed learning-dependent fMRI responses for structured sequences in frontoparietal regions and the striatum (putamen) for young adults. However, for older adults, learning-dependent activations were observed mainly in subcortical (putamen, thalamus) regions but were weaker in frontoparietal regions. Significant correlations of learning-dependent behavioral and fMRI changes in these regions suggest a strong link between brain activations and behavioral improvement rather than general overactivation. Thus, our findings suggest that predicting future events based on knowledge of temporal statistics engages brain regions involved in implicit learning in both young and older adults.

Emotional variables, dropout and academic performance in Spanish nursing students.

PubMed

Roso-Bas, Fátima; Pades Jiménez, Antonia; García-Buades, Esther

2016-02-01

The dropout of university studies is a main concern in many countries, also for Health Sciences degrees. The reviews on dropout in all university degrees as well as nursing generally show multidimensional causes with factors related both to institutional and students' characteristics. Regarding the personal variables of students, researchers have focused on financial, family and personality features. Far less attention has been devoted to emotional variables. This study aims to explore whether individual variables of the emotional domain such as perceived emotional intelligence, dispositional optimism/pessimism and depressive rumination are related and/or can predict students' intention to dropout and academic performance. Using a cross-correlational approach, data were obtained from a sample of 144 nursing students. Students with a pessimistic disposition revealed a greater tendency to drop out. The remaining variables correlated significantly with pessimism but had no predictive value on dropout. Our results suggest that students with low levels of emotional clarity and repair and high depressive rumination have pessimistic expectations, so they are more likely to leave studies. No significant results were found in relation to academic performance. We conclude with an identification of strategies to increase retention and academic success. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elevated temperature biaxial fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, E. H.

1985-01-01

A 3 year experimental program for studying elevated temperature biaxial fatigue of a nickel based alloy Hastelloy-X has been completed. A new high temperature fatigue test facility with unique capabilities has been developed. Effort was directed toward understanding multiaxial fatigue and correlating the experimental data to the existing theories of fatigue failure. The difficult task of predicting fatigue lives for nonproportional loading was used as an ultimate test for various life prediction methods being considered. The primary means of reaching improved understanding were through several critical nonproportional loading experiments. The direction of cracking observed on failed specimens was also recorded and used to guide the development of the theory. Cyclic deformation responses were permanently recorded digitally during each test. It was discovered that the cracking mode switched from primarily cracking on the maximum shear planes at room temperature to cracking on the maximum normal strain planes at 649 C. In contrast to some other metals, loading path in nonproportional loading had little effect on fatigue lives. Strain rate had a small effect on fatigue lives at 649 C. Of the various correlating parameters the modified plastic work and octahedral shear stress were the most successful.

Multivariate Analysis of Conformational Changes Induced by Macromolecular Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Indranil; Alexov, Emil

2009-11-01

Understanding protein-protein binding and associated conformational changes is critical for both understanding thermodynamics of protein interactions and successful drug discovery. Our study focuses on computational analysis of plausible correlations between induced conformational changes and set of biophysical characteristics of interacting monomers. It was done by comparing 3D structures of unbound and bound monomers to calculate the RMSD which is used as measure of the structural changed induced by the binding. We correlate RMSD with volumetric and interfacial charge of the monomers, the amino acid composition, the energy of binding, and type of amino acids at the interface. as predictors. The data set was analyzed with SVM in R & SPSS which is trained on a combination of a new robust evolutionary conservation signal with the monomeric properties to predict the induced RMSD. The goal of this study is to undergo parametric tests and heirchiacal cluster and discriminant multivariate analysis to find key predictors which will be used to develop algorithm to predict the magnitude of conformational changes provided by the structure of interacting monomers. Results indicate that the most promising predictor is the net charge of the monomers, however, other parameters as the type of amino acids at the interface have significant contribution as well.

Vocational Interests and Performance: A Quantitative Summary of Over 60 Years of Research.

PubMed

Nye, Christopher D; Su, Rong; Rounds, James; Drasgow, Fritz

2012-07-01

Despite early claims that vocational interests could be used to distinguish successful workers and superior students from their peers, interest measures are generally ignored in the employee selection literature. Nevertheless, theoretical descriptions of vocational interests from vocational and educational psychology have proposed that interest constructs should be related to performance and persistence in work and academic settings. Moreover, on the basis of Holland's (1959, 1997) theoretical predictions, congruence indices, which quantify the degree of similarity or person-environment fit between individuals and their occupations, should be more strongly related to performance than interest scores alone. Using a comprehensive review of the interest literature that spans more than 60 years of research, a meta-analysis was conducted to examine the veracity of these claims. A literature search identified 60 studies and approximately 568 correlations that addressed the relationship between interests and performance. Results showed that interests are indeed related to performance and persistence in work and academic contexts. In addition, the correlations between congruence indices and performance were stronger than for interest scores alone. Thus, consistent with interest theory, the fit between individuals and their environment was more predictive of performance than interest alone. © The Author(s) 2012.

Comparison of six methods for the detection of causality in a bivariate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krakovská, Anna; Jakubík, Jozef; Chvosteková, Martina; Coufal, David; Jajcay, Nikola; Paluš, Milan

2018-04-01

In this comparative study, six causality detection methods were compared, namely, the Granger vector autoregressive test, the extended Granger test, the kernel version of the Granger test, the conditional mutual information (transfer entropy), the evaluation of cross mappings between state spaces, and an assessment of predictability improvement due to the use of mixed predictions. Seven test data sets were analyzed: linear coupling of autoregressive models, a unidirectional connection of two Hénon systems, a unidirectional connection of chaotic systems of Rössler and Lorenz type and of two different Rössler systems, an example of bidirectionally connected two-species systems, a fishery model as an example of two correlated observables without a causal relationship, and an example of mediated causality. We tested not only 20 000 points long clean time series but also noisy and short variants of the data. The standard and the extended Granger tests worked only for the autoregressive models. The remaining methods were more successful with the more complex test examples, although they differed considerably in their capability to reveal the presence and the direction of coupling and to distinguish causality from mere correlation.

Lizard threat display handicaps endurance.

PubMed Central

Brandt, Y

2003-01-01

Honest-signalling theory asserts that threat displays reliably advertise attributes that influence fighting success. Endurance, as measured by treadmill performance, predicts the outcome of agonistic interactions among lizards. If threat displays in lizards function to advertise endurance capacity then variation in threat displays should correlate with endurance. I tested this prediction for the duration of threat posturing in male side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana) and examined whether threat displays act as quality handicaps, reliable signals that expend the attribute that is advertised. Individual variation in the duration of threat posturing correlated with endurance, while an experimental reduction of endurance diminished the duration of threat posturing. As expected of a quality handicap, endurance fell below baseline after display production. A restriction of aerobic metabolism can account for this effect. In threat posturing, lateral compression of the thorax may interfere with respiration or with circulation, limiting aerobic metabolism and causing a compensatory increase in anaerobic metabolism, thereby generating lactate and diminishing locomotor capacity. Concentrations of lactate measured after display production were higher than baseline, consistent with the proposed mechanism. By restricting aerobic metabolism, the threat posture can act as a quality handicap, simultaneously advertising and expending the endurance capacity of displaying lizards. PMID:12803896

Effect of Hashimoto thyroiditis on low-dose radioactive-iodine remnant ablation.

PubMed

Kwon, Hyungju; Choi, June Young; Moon, Jae Hoon; Park, Hyo Jin; Lee, Won Woo; Lee, Kyu Eun

2016-04-01

Radioactive-iodine remnant ablation is an integral part of the papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) treatment. Although a minimum dose is usually recommended, there is controversy as to whether the low-dose (1100 MBq) radioactive-iodine remnant ablation is adequate for selected patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 691 patients. Patients with no remnant thyroid on the follow-up whole body scan and low stimulated thyroglobulin (sTg) level (<2.0 ng/mL) were deemed as successful treatment cases. Initial low-dose radioactive-iodine remnant ablation was successful in 431 patients (62.3%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated a negative correlation between successful radioactive-iodine remnant ablation and coexisting Hashimoto thyroiditis based on histopathology diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] = 3.23; p < .001) as well as elevated preablation sTg (OR = 1.24; p < .001). Our data suggest that coexisting Hashimoto thyroiditis and elevated sTg are negative predictive factors for successful low-dose radioactive-iodine remnant ablation treatment. An appropriate risk-adjusted approach may improve the efficacy of radioactive-iodine remnant ablation treatment. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: E730-E735, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Honey bee success predicted by landscape composition in Ohio, USA.

PubMed

Sponsler, D B; Johnson, R M

2015-01-01

Foraging honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) can routinely travel as far as several kilometers from their hive in the process of collecting nectar and pollen from floral patches within the surrounding landscape. Since the availability of floral resources at the landscape scale is a function of landscape composition, apiculturists have long recognized that landscape composition is a critical determinant of honey bee colony success. Nevertheless, very few studies present quantitative data relating colony success metrics to local landscape composition. We employed a beekeeper survey in conjunction with GIS-based landscape analysis to model colony success as a function of landscape composition in the State of Ohio, USA, a region characterized by intensive cropland, urban development, deciduous forest, and grassland. We found that colony food accumulation and wax production were positively related to cropland and negatively related to forest and grassland, a pattern that may be driven by the abundance of dandelion and clovers in agricultural areas compared to forest or mature grassland. Colony food accumulation was also negatively correlated with urban land cover in sites dominated by urban and agricultural land use, which does not support the popular opinion that the urban environment is more favorable to honey bees than cropland.

Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, André; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna

2017-11-01

We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and temporal interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full value nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 observations and HadISST data, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends, especially during the warming in the 1990s and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. Differences between the prediction systems are more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant correlation skill for up to 5-8 lead years, albeit along with an overestimation of the temporal interquartile range. In the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging, significant correlation skill for lead years greater than two is only found in the 1980s and 1990s. In the hindcasts initialized by full value nudging, correlation skill is consistently lower than in the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging in the first lead years with re-emerging skill thereafter. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reacts on the density changes introduced by oceanic nudging, this limits the predictability in the subpolar gyre in the first lead years. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period provides essential insights to judge the success of both the assimilation and the subsequent hindcast quality.

Network diffusion accurately models the relationship between structural and functional brain connectivity networks

PubMed Central

Abdelnour, Farras; Voss, Henning U.; Raj, Ashish

2014-01-01

The relationship between anatomic connectivity of large-scale brain networks and their functional connectivity is of immense importance and an area of active research. Previous attempts have required complex simulations which model the dynamics of each cortical region, and explore the coupling between regions as derived by anatomic connections. While much insight is gained from these non-linear simulations, they can be computationally taxing tools for predicting functional from anatomic connectivities. Little attention has been paid to linear models. Here we show that a properly designed linear model appears to be superior to previous non-linear approaches in capturing the brain’s long-range second order correlation structure that governs the relationship between anatomic and functional connectivities. We derive a linear network of brain dynamics based on graph diffusion, whereby the diffusing quantity undergoes a random walk on a graph. We test our model using subjects who underwent diffusion MRI and resting state fMRI. The network diffusion model applied to the structural networks largely predicts the correlation structures derived from their fMRI data, to a greater extent than other approaches. The utility of the proposed approach is that it can routinely be used to infer functional correlation from anatomic connectivity. And since it is linear, anatomic connectivity can also be inferred from functional data. The success of our model confirms the linearity of ensemble average signals in the brain, and implies that their long-range correlation structure may percolate within the brain via purely mechanistic processes enacted on its structural connectivity pathways. PMID:24384152

An ensemble framework for identifying essential proteins.

PubMed

Zhang, Xue; Xiao, Wangxin; Acencio, Marcio Luis; Lemke, Ney; Wang, Xujing

2016-08-25

Many centrality measures have been proposed to mine and characterize the correlations between network topological properties and protein essentiality. However, most of them show limited prediction accuracy, and the number of common predicted essential proteins by different methods is very small. In this paper, an ensemble framework is proposed which integrates gene expression data and protein-protein interaction networks (PINs). It aims to improve the prediction accuracy of basic centrality measures. The idea behind this ensemble framework is that different protein-protein interactions (PPIs) may show different contributions to protein essentiality. Five standard centrality measures (degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and subgraph centrality) are integrated into the ensemble framework respectively. We evaluated the performance of the proposed ensemble framework using yeast PINs and gene expression data. The results show that it can considerably improve the prediction accuracy of the five centrality measures individually. It can also remarkably increase the number of common predicted essential proteins among those predicted by each centrality measure individually and enable each centrality measure to find more low-degree essential proteins. This paper demonstrates that it is valuable to differentiate the contributions of different PPIs for identifying essential proteins based on network topological characteristics. The proposed ensemble framework is a successful paradigm to this end.

Predicting biomaterial property-dendritic cell phenotype relationships from the multivariate analysis of responses to polymethacrylates

PubMed Central

Kou, Peng Meng; Pallassana, Narayanan; Bowden, Rebeca; Cunningham, Barry; Joy, Abraham; Kohn, Joachim; Babensee, Julia E.

2011-01-01

Dendritic cells (DCs) play a critical role in orchestrating the host responses to a wide variety of foreign antigens and are essential in maintaining immune tolerance. Distinct biomaterials have been shown to differentially affect the phenotype of DCs, which suggested that biomaterials may be used to modulate immune response towards the biologic component in combination products. The elucidation of biomaterial property-DC phenotype relationships is expected to inform rational design of immuno-modulatory biomaterials. In this study, DC response to a set of 12 polymethacrylates (pMAs) was assessed in terms of surface marker expression and cytokine profile. Principal component analysis (PCA) determined that surface carbon correlated with enhanced DC maturation, while surface oxygen was associated with an immature DC phenotype. Partial square linear regression, a multivariate modeling approach, was implemented and successfully predicted biomaterial-induced DC phenotype in terms of surface marker expression from biomaterial properties with R2prediction = 0.76. Furthermore, prediction of DC phenotype was effective based on only theoretical chemical composition of the bulk polymers with R2prediction = 0.80. These results demonstrated that immune cell response can be predicted from biomaterial properties, and computational models will expedite future biomaterial design and selection. PMID:22136715

Can Preoperative Psychological Assessment Predict Outcomes After Temporomandibular Joint Arthroscopy?

PubMed

Bouloux, Gary F; Zerweck, Ashley G; Celano, Marianne; Dai, Tian; Easley, Kirk A

2015-11-01

Psychological assessment has been used successfully to predict patient outcomes after cardiothoracic and bariatric surgery. The purpose of this study was to determine whether preoperative psychological assessment could be used to predict patient outcomes after temporomandibular joint arthroscopy. Consecutive patients with temporomandibular dysfunction (TMD) who could benefit from arthroscopy were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. All patients completed the Millon Behavior Medicine Diagnostic survey before surgery. The primary predictor variable was the preoperative psychological scores. The primary outcome variable was the difference in pain between the pre- and postoperative periods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the Pearson product-moment correlation were used to determine the association between psychological factors and change in pain. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using a mixed-effects linear model and multiple linear regression. A P value of .05 was considered significant. Eighty-six patients were enrolled in the study. Seventy-five patients completed the study and were included in the final analyses. The mean change in visual analog scale (VAS) pain score 1 month after arthroscopy was -15.4 points (95% confidence interval, -6.0 to -24.7; P < .001). Jaw function also improved after surgery (P < .001). No association between change in VAS pain score and each of the 5 preoperative psychological factors was identified with univariable correlation analyses. Multivariable analyses identified that a greater pain decrease was associated with a longer duration of preoperative symptoms (P = .054) and lower chronic anxiety (P = .064). This study has identified a weak association between chronic anxiety and the magnitude of pain decrease after arthroscopy for TMD. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of chronic anxiety in the outcome after surgical procedures for the treatment of TMD. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Rapid Shifts in Soil Nutrients and Decomposition Enzyme Activity in Early Succession Following Forest Fire

DOE PAGES

Knelman, Joseph E.; Graham, Emily B.; Ferrenberg, Scott; ...

2017-09-15

In post-disturbance landscapes nutrient availability has proven a major control on ecological succession. In this study, we examined variation in connections between soil nutrient availability and decomposition extracellular enzyme activity (EEA) across post fire secondary succession in forest soils as well as after a secondary flood disturbance. We also examined possible linkages between edaphic properties and bacterial communities based on 16S rRNA gene analysis. We found that with advancing succession in a post-fire landscape, the relationship between soil nutrients and EEA became stronger over time. In general, late successional soils showed stronger connections between EEA and soil nutrient status, whilemore » early successional soils were marked by a complete decoupling of nutrients and EEA. We also found that soil moisture and bacterial communities of post-fire disturbance soils were susceptible to change following the secondary flood disturbance, while undisturbed, reference forest soils were not. Our results demonstrate that nutrient pools correlating with EEA change over time. While past work has largely focused on ecosystem succession on decadal timescales, our work suggests that nutrients shift in their relative importance as a control of decomposition EEA in the earliest stages of secondary succession. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the relevance of successional stage, even on short timescales, in predicting rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling, especially as disturbances become more frequent in a rapidly changing world.« less

Rapid Shifts in Soil Nutrients and Decomposition Enzyme Activity in Early Succession Following Forest Fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knelman, Joseph E.; Graham, Emily B.; Ferrenberg, Scott

In post-disturbance landscapes nutrient availability has proven a major control on ecological succession. In this study, we examined variation in connections between soil nutrient availability and decomposition extracellular enzyme activity (EEA) across post fire secondary succession in forest soils as well as after a secondary flood disturbance. We also examined possible linkages between edaphic properties and bacterial communities based on 16S rRNA gene analysis. We found that with advancing succession in a post-fire landscape, the relationship between soil nutrients and EEA became stronger over time. In general, late successional soils showed stronger connections between EEA and soil nutrient status, whilemore » early successional soils were marked by a complete decoupling of nutrients and EEA. We also found that soil moisture and bacterial communities of post-fire disturbance soils were susceptible to change following the secondary flood disturbance, while undisturbed, reference forest soils were not. Our results demonstrate that nutrient pools correlating with EEA change over time. While past work has largely focused on ecosystem succession on decadal timescales, our work suggests that nutrients shift in their relative importance as a control of decomposition EEA in the earliest stages of secondary succession. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the relevance of successional stage, even on short timescales, in predicting rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling, especially as disturbances become more frequent in a rapidly changing world.« less

Geometric parameter analysis to predetermine optimal radiosurgery technique for the treatment of arteriovenous malformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mestrovic, Ante; Clark, Brenda G.; Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia

2005-11-01

Purpose: To develop a method of predicting the values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques for treatment of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) based on internal geometric parameters. Methods and Materials: For each of 18 previously treated AVM patients, four treatment plans were created: circular collimator arcs, dynamic conformal arcs, fixed conformal fields, and intensity-modulated radiosurgery. An algorithm was developed to characterize the target and critical structure shape complexity and the position of the critical structures with respect to the target. Multiple regression was employed to establish the correlation between the internal geometric parameters and the dose distribution for differentmore » treatment techniques. The results from the model were applied to predict the dosimetric outcomes of different radiosurgery techniques and select the optimal radiosurgery technique for a number of AVM patients. Results: Several internal geometric parameters showing statistically significant correlation (p < 0.05) with the treatment planning results for each technique were identified. The target volume and the average minimum distance between the target and the critical structures were the most effective predictors for normal tissue dose distribution. The structure overlap volume with the target and the mean distance between the target and the critical structure were the most effective predictors for critical structure dose distribution. The predicted values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques were in close agreement with the original data. Conclusions: A statistical model has been described that successfully predicts the values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques and may be used to predetermine the optimal technique on a patient-to-patient basis.« less

Melatonin levels in follicular fluid as markers for IVF outcomes and predicting ovarian reserve.

PubMed

Tong, Jing; Sheng, Shile; Sun, Yun; Li, Huihui; Li, Wei-Ping; Zhang, Cong; Chen, Zi-Jiang

2017-04-01

Good-quality oocytes are critical for the success of in vitro fertilization (IVF), but, to date, there is no marker of ovarian reserve available that can accurately predict oocyte quality. Melatonin exerts its antioxidant actions as a strong radical scavenger that might affect oocyte quality directly as it is the most potent antioxidant in follicular fluid. To investigate the precise role of endogenous melatonin in IVF outcomes, we recruited 61 women undergoing treatment cycles of IVF or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) procedures and classified them into three groups according to their response to ovarian stimulation. Follicular fluid was collected to assess melatonin levels using a direct RIA method. We found good correlations between melatonin levels in follicular fluid with age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and baseline follicle-stimulating hormone (bFSH), all of which have been used to predict ovarian reserve. Furthermore, as melatonin levels correlated to IVF outcomes, higher numbers of oocytes were collected from patients with higher melatonin levels and consequently the number of oocytes fertilized, zygotes cleaved, top quality embryos on D3, blastocysts obtained and embryos suitable for transplantation was higher. The blastocyst rate increased in concert with the melatonin levels across the gradient between the poor response group and the high response group. These results demonstrated that the melatonin levels in follicular fluid is associated with both the quantity and quality of oocytes and can predict IVF outcomes as well making them highly relevant biochemical markers of ovarian reserve. © 2017 Society for Reproduction and Fertility.

Predicting parameters of degradation succession processes of Tibetan Kobresia grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, L.; Li, Y. K.; Xu, X. L.; Zhang, F. W.; Du, Y. G.; Liu, S. L.; Guo, X. W.; Cao, G. M.

2015-08-01

In the past two decades, increasing human activity (i.e., overgrazing) in the Tibetan Plateau has strongly influenced plant succession processes, resulting in the degradation of alpine grasslands. Therefore, it is necessary to diagnose the degree of degradation to enable implementation of appropriate management for sustainable exploitation and protection of alpine grasslands. Here, we investigated environmental factors and plant functional group quantity factors (PFGs) during the alpine grassland succession processes. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the parameters indicative of degradation. We divided the entire degradation process into six stages. PFG types shifted from rhizome bunch grasses to rhizome plexus and dense plexus grasses during the degradation process. Leguminosae and Gramineae plants were replaced by Sedges during the advanced stages of degradation. The PFGs were classified into two reaction groups: the grazing-sensitive group, containing Kobresia humilis Mey, and Gramineae and Leguminosae plants, and the grazing-insensitive group, containing Kobresia pygmaea Clarke. The first group was correlated with live root biomass in the surface soil (0-10 cm), whereas the second group was strongly correlated with mattic epipedon thickness and K. pygmaea characteristics. The degree of degradation of alpine meadows may be delineated by development of mattic epipedon and PFG composition. Thus, meadows could be easily graded and their use adjusted based on our scaling system, which would help prevent irreversible degradation of important grasslands. Because relatively few environmental factors are investigated, this approach can save time and labor to formulate a conservation management plan for degraded alpine meadows.

Predicting parameters of degradation succession processes of Tibetan Kobresia grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, L.; Li, Y. K.; Xu, X. L.; Zhang, F. W.; Du, Y. G.; Liu, S. L.; Guo, X. W.; Cao, G. M.

2015-11-01

In the past two decades, increasing human activity (i.e., overgrazing) in the Tibetan Plateau has strongly influenced plant succession processes, resulting in the degradation of alpine grasslands. Therefore, it is necessary to diagnose the degree of degradation to enable implementation of appropriate management for sustainable exploitation and protection of alpine grasslands. Here, we investigated environmental factors and plant functional group (PFG) quantity factors during the alpine grassland succession processes. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the parameters indicative of degradation. We divided the entire degradation process into six stages. PFG types shifted from rhizome bunchgrasses to rhizome plexus and dense-plexus grasses during the degradation process. Leguminosae and Gramineae plants were replaced by sedges during the advanced stages of degradation. The PFGs were classified into two reaction groups: the grazing-sensitive group, containing Kobresia humilis Mey, and Gramineae and Leguminosae plants, and the grazing-insensitive group, containing Kobresia pygmaea Clarke. The first group was correlated with live root biomass in the surface soil (0-10 cm), whereas the second group was strongly correlated with mattic epipedon thickness and K. pygmaea characteristics. The degree of degradation of alpine meadows may be delineated by development of mattic epipedon and PFG composition. Thus, meadows could be easily graded and their use adjusted based on our scaling system, which would help prevent irreversible degradation of important grasslands. Because relatively few environmental factors are investigated, this approach can save time and labor to formulate a conservation management plan for degraded alpine meadows.

Intraspecific evidence from guppies for correlated patterns of male and female genital trait diversification

PubMed Central

Evans, Jonathan P.; Gasparini, Clelia; Holwell, Gregory I.; Ramnarine, Indar W.; Pitcher, Trevor E.; Pilastro, Andrea

2011-01-01

The role of sexual selection in fuelling genital evolution is becoming increasingly apparent from comparative studies revealing interspecific divergence in male genitalia and evolutionary associations between male and female genital traits. Despite this, we know little about intraspecific variance in male genital morphology, or how male and female reproductive traits covary among divergent populations. Here we address both topics using natural populations of the guppy, Poecilia reticulata, a livebearing fish that exhibits divergent patterns of male sexual behaviour among populations. Initially, we performed a series of mating trials on a single population to examine the relationship between the morphology of the male's copulatory organ (the gonopodium) and the success of forced matings. Using a combination of linear measurements and geometric morphometrics, we found that variation in the length and shape of the gonopodium predicted the success of forced matings in terms of the rate of genital contacts and insemination success, respectively. We then looked for geographical divergence in these traits, since the relative frequency of forced matings tends to be greater in high-predation populations. We found consistent patterns of variation in male genital size and shape in relation to the level of predation, and corresponding patterns of (co)variation in female genital morphology. Together, these data enable us to draw tentative conclusions about the underlying selective pressures causing correlated patterns of divergence in male and female genital traits, which point to a role for sexually antagonistic selection. PMID:21270040

Temperature uniformity of the bulk medium produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Lanny

2006-10-01

The success of hydrodynamic models of elliptic flow in relativistic heavy ion collisions is often touted as evidence for rapid thermal equilibration. However, large momentum scale two-particle correlations indicate that a significant fraction of the final-state hadrons retain jet-like correlation structure associated with early stage, non-equilibrated low-Q^2 partons [1]. In addition, correlations on transverse momentum (pt1xpt2) suggest that low-Q^2 parton momentum is partially dissipated causing fluctuations in the effective temperature (thermal and/or collective motion) of the bulk medium[2]. We first show that both global and local temperature fluctuation models describe the available (pt1xpt2) correlation data equally well. Results of an analytical model are then presented which tests the sensitivity of (pt1xpt2) correlations to the first few lower-order cumulants of the two-point temperature distribution for the event ensemble. Unique signatures in the predicted (pt1xpt2) correlations are observed for each cumulant term studied. The prospects for direct measurement of the absolute temperature distribution in the bulk medium produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions using (pt1xpt2) and other correlation measures are discussed. [1] J. Adams et al., Phys. Rev. C 73, 064907 (2006); J. Phys.G. 32, L37 (2006). [2]J. Adams et al., nucl-ex/0408012.

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

PubMed

Myksvoll, Mari S; Erikstad, Kjell E; Barrett, Robert T; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

2013-01-01

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Climate-Driven Ichthyoplankton Drift Model Predicts Growth of Top Predator Young

PubMed Central

Myksvoll, Mari S.; Erikstad, Kjell E.; Barrett, Robert T.; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

2013-01-01

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator. PMID:24265761

Patterns of Incorrect Responses on the FCI and Course Success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, James; Mokaya, Fridah; Valente, Diego

The Force Concept Inventory (FCI) is often used to measure the effectiveness of instructional pedagogy in introductory physics courses both at the algebra- and calculus-based level. Scores on the FCI are correlated with the performance of students in a class, as measured by their final course grade. We have collected data from several semesters of first-semester introductory mechanics courses at a public 4-year university, taught in large-scale classrooms with pedagogy including elements of Just-in-Time Teaching pedagogy along with active learning course components. The data collected includes pre- and post-test FCI scores, midterm exam grades, and final course grades. We examine whether certain patterns of incorrect answers on the FCI post-test are predictive of course grades, indicating whether certain specific student preconceptions are more detrimental than others to the success of students in an introductory mechanics course. Funding from UConn - College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (CLAS).

Mate replacement entails a fitness cost for a socially monogamous seabird.

PubMed

Ismar, Stefanie M H; Daniel, Claire; Stephenson, Brent M; Hauber, Mark E

2010-01-01

Studies of the selective advantages of divorce in socially monogamous bird species have unravelled extensive variation among different lineages with diverse ecologies. We quantified the reproductive correlates of mate retention, mate loss and divorce in a highly philopatric, colonially breeding biparental seabird, the Australasian gannet Morus serrator. Estimates of annual divorce rates varied between 40-43% for M. serrator and were high in comparison with both the closely related Morus bassanus and the range of divorce rates reported across monogamous avian breeding systems. Mate retention across seasons was related to consistently higher reproductive success compared with mate replacement, while divorce per se contributed significantly to lower reproductive output only in one of two breeding seasons. Prior reproductive success was not predictive of mate replacement overall or divorce in particular. These patterns are in accordance with the musical chairs hypothesis of adaptive divorce theory, which operates in systems characterised by asynchronous territorial establishment.

Mate replacement entails a fitness cost for a socially monogamous seabird

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismar, Stefanie M. H.; Daniel, Claire; Stephenson, Brent M.; Hauber, Mark E.

2010-01-01

Studies of the selective advantages of divorce in socially monogamous bird species have unravelled extensive variation among different lineages with diverse ecologies. We quantified the reproductive correlates of mate retention, mate loss and divorce in a highly philopatric, colonially breeding biparental seabird, the Australasian gannet Morus serrator. Estimates of annual divorce rates varied between 40-43% for M. serrator and were high in comparison with both the closely related Morus bassanus and the range of divorce rates reported across monogamous avian breeding systems. Mate retention across seasons was related to consistently higher reproductive success compared with mate replacement, while divorce per se contributed significantly to lower reproductive output only in one of two breeding seasons. Prior reproductive success was not predictive of mate replacement overall or divorce in particular. These patterns are in accordance with the musical chairs hypothesis of adaptive divorce theory, which operates in systems characterised by asynchronous territorial establishment.

Initial Validation for the Estimation of Resting-State fMRI Effective Connectivity by a Generalization of the Correlation Approach.

PubMed

Xu, Nan; Spreng, R Nathan; Doerschuk, Peter C

2017-01-01

Resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) is widely used to noninvasively study human brain networks. Network functional connectivity is often estimated by calculating the timeseries correlation between blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) signal from different regions of interest (ROIs). However, standard correlation cannot characterize the direction of information flow between regions. In this paper, we introduce and test a new concept, prediction correlation, to estimate effective connectivity in functional brain networks from rs-fMRI. In this approach, the correlation between two BOLD signals is replaced by a correlation between one BOLD signal and a prediction of this signal via a causal system driven by another BOLD signal. Three validations are described: (1) Prediction correlation performed well on simulated data where the ground truth was known, and outperformed four other methods. (2) On simulated data designed to display the "common driver" problem, prediction correlation did not introduce false connections between non-interacting driven ROIs. (3) On experimental data, prediction correlation recovered the previously identified network organization of human brain. Prediction correlation scales well to work with hundreds of ROIs, enabling it to assess whole brain interregional connectivity at the single subject level. These results provide an initial validation that prediction correlation can capture the direction of information flow and estimate the duration of extended temporal delays in information flow between regions of interest ROIs based on BOLD signal. This approach not only maintains the high sensitivity to network connectivity provided by the correlation analysis, but also performs well in the estimation of causal information flow in the brain.

Tracking neural correlates of successful learning over repeated sequence observations

PubMed Central

Steinemann, Natalie A.; Moisello, Clara; Ghilardi, M. Felice; Kelly, Simon P.

2016-01-01

The neural correlates of memory formation in humans have long been investigated by exposing subjects to diverse material and comparing responses to items later remembered to those forgotten. Tasks requiring memorization of sensory sequences afford unique possibilities for linking neural memorization processes to behavior, because, rather than comparing across different items of varying content, each individual item can be examined across the successive learning states of being initially unknown, newly learned, and eventually, fully known. Sequence learning paradigms have not yet been exploited in this way, however. Here, we analyze the event-related potentials of subjects attempting to memorize sequences of visual locations over several blocks of repeated observation, with respect to pre- and post-block recall tests. Over centro-parietal regions, we observed a rapid P300 component superimposed on a broader positivity, which exhibited distinct modulations across learning states that were replicated in two separate experiments. Consistent with its well-known encoding of surprise, the P300 deflection monotonically decreased over blocks as locations became better learned and hence more expected. In contrast, the broader positivity was especially elevated at the point when a given item was newly learned, i.e., started being successfully recalled. These results implicate the Broad Positivity in endogenously-driven, intentional memory formation, whereas the P300, in processing the current stimulus to the degree that it was previously uncertain, indexes the cumulative knowledge thereby gained. The decreasing surprise/P300 effect significantly predicted learning success both across blocks and across subjects. This presents a new, neural-based means to evaluate learning capabilities independent of verbal reports, which could have considerable value in distinguishing genuine learning disabilities from difficulties to communicate the outcomes of learning, or perceptual impairments, in a range of clinical brain disorders. PMID:27155129

Circadian rhythm of a Silene species favours nocturnal pollination and constrains diurnal visitation

PubMed Central

Prieto-Benítez, Samuel; Dötterl, Stefan; Giménez-Benavides, Luis

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Traits related to flower advertisement and reward sometimes vary in a circadian way, reflecting phenotypic specialization. However, specialized flowers are not necessarily restricted to specialized pollinators. This is the case of most Silene species, typically associated with diurnal or nocturnal syndromes of pollination but usually showing complex suites of pollinators. Methods A Silene species with mixed floral features between diurnal and nocturnal syndromes was used to test how petal opening, nectar production, scent emission and pollination success correlate in a circadian rhythm, and whether this is influenced by environmental conditions. The effect of diurnal and nocturnal visitation rates on plant reproductive success is also explored in three populations, including the effect of the pollinating seed predator Hadena sancta. Key Results The result showed that repeated petal opening at dusk was correlated with nectar secretion and higher scent production during the night. However, depending on environmental conditions, petals remain opened for a while in the morning, when nectar and pollen still were available. Pollen deposition was similarly effective at night and in the morning, but less effective in the afternoon. These results were consistent with field studies. Conclusions The circadian rhythm regulating floral attractiveness and reward in S. colorata is predominantly adapted to nocturnal flower visitors. However, favourable environmental conditions lengthen the optimal daily period of flower attraction and pollination towards morning. This allows the complementarity of day and night pollination. Diurnal pollination may help to compensate the plant reproductive success when nocturnal pollinators are scarce and when the net outcome of H. sancta shifts from mutualism to parasitism. These results suggest a functional mechanism explaining why the supposed nocturnal syndrome of many Silene species does not successfully predict their pollinator guilds. PMID:27451986

A Vendian-Cambrian boundary succession from the northwestern margin of the Siberian Platform: stratigraphy, palaeontology, chemostratigraphy and correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartley, J. K.; Pope, M.; Knoll, A. H.; Semikhatov, M. A.; Grotzinger, J. (Principal Investigator)

1998-01-01

Siberia contains several key reference sections for studies of biological and environmental evolution across the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic transition. The Platonovskaya Formation, exposed in the Turukhansk region of western Siberia, is an uppermost Proterozoic to Cambrian succession whose trace and body fossils place broad limits on the age of deposition, but do not permit detailed correlation with boundary successions elsewhere. In contrast, a striking negative carbon isotopic excursion in the lower part of the Platonovskaya Formation permits precise chemostratigraphic correlation with upper-most Yudomian successions in Siberia, and possibly worldwide. In addition to providing a tool for correlation, the isotopic excursion preserved in the Platonovskaya and contemporaneous successions documents a major biogeochemical event, likely involving the world ocean. The excursion coincides with the palaeontological breakpoint between Ediacaran- and Cambrian-style assemblages, suggesting a role for biogeochemical change in evolutionary events near the Proterozoic Cambrian boundary.

A Vendian-Cambrian boundary succession from the northwestern margin of the Siberian Platform: stratigraphy, palaeontology, chemostratigraphy and correlation.

PubMed

Bartley, J K; Pope, M; Knoll, A H; Semikhatov, M A; Petrov PYu

1998-07-01

Siberia contains several key reference sections for studies of biological and environmental evolution across the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic transition. The Platonovskaya Formation, exposed in the Turukhansk region of western Siberia, is an uppermost Proterozoic to Cambrian succession whose trace and body fossils place broad limits on the age of deposition, but do not permit detailed correlation with boundary successions elsewhere. In contrast, a striking negative carbon isotopic excursion in the lower part of the Platonovskaya Formation permits precise chemostratigraphic correlation with upper-most Yudomian successions in Siberia, and possibly worldwide. In addition to providing a tool for correlation, the isotopic excursion preserved in the Platonovskaya and contemporaneous successions documents a major biogeochemical event, likely involving the world ocean. The excursion coincides with the palaeontological breakpoint between Ediacaran- and Cambrian-style assemblages, suggesting a role for biogeochemical change in evolutionary events near the Proterozoic Cambrian boundary.

A Genetic Test Predicts Providence Brace Success for Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis When Failure Is Defined as Progression to >45 Degrees.

PubMed

Bohl, Daniel D; Telles, Connor J; Ruiz, Ferrin K; Badrinath, Raghav; DeLuca, Peter A; Grauer, Jonathan N

2016-04-01

Retrospective cohort. To determine whether a genetic test is associated with successful Providence bracing for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Genetic factors have been defined that predict the risk of progression of AIS in a polygenic fashion. From these data, a commercially available genetic test, ScoliScore, was developed. It is now used in clinical practice for counseling and to guide clinical management. Bracing is a mainstay of treatment for AIS. Large efforts have been made recently to reduce potential confounding across studies of different braces; however, none of these have considered genetics as a potential confounder. In particular, ScoliScore has not been evaluated in a population undergoing bracing. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in which we identified a population of AIS patients who were initiated with Providence bracing and followed over time. Although these patients did not necessarily fit the commercial indications for ScoliScore, we contacted the patients and obtained a saliva sample from each for genetic analysis. We then tested whether ScoliScore correlated with the outcome of their bracing therapy. We were able to contact and invite 25 eligible subjects, of whom 16 (64.0%) returned samples for laboratory analysis. Patients were followed for an average of 2.3 years (range, 1.1-4 y) after initiation of the Providence brace. Eight patients (50.0%) progressed to >45 degrees, whereas the other 8 patients (50.0%) did not. The mean ScoliScore among those who progressed to >45 degrees was higher than that among those who did not (176 vs. 112, P=0.030). We demonstrate that a genetic test correlates with bracing outcome. It may be appropriate for future bracing studies to include analysis of genetic predisposition to limit potential confounding.

The Importance of Strength and Power on Key Performance Indicators in Elite Youth Soccer.

PubMed

Wing, Christopher E; Turner, Anthony N; Bishop, Chris J

2018-01-24

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the importance of strength and power in relation to key performance indicators (KPI's) within competitive soccer match play. This was achieved through using an experimental approach where fifteen subjects were recruited from a professional soccer club's scholarship squad during the 2013/14 season. Following anthropometric measures, power and strength were assessed across a range of tests which included the squat jump (SJ), countermovement jump (CMJ), 20 metre (m) sprint and arrowhead change of direction test. A predicted 1-repetition maximum (RM) was also obtained for strength by performing a 3RM test for both the back squat and bench press and a total score of athleticism (TSA) was provided by summing z-scores for all fitness tests together, providing one complete score for athleticism. Performance analysis data was collected during 16 matches for the following KPIs: passing, shooting, dribbling, tackling and heading. Alongside this, data concerning player ball involvements (touches) was recorded. Results showed that there was a significant correlation (p < 0.05) between CMJ (r = 0.80), SJ (r = 0.79) and TSA (r = 0.64) in relation to heading success. Similarly, a significant correlation (p < 0.05) between predicted 1RM squat strength and tackle success (r = 0.61). These data supports the notion that strength and power training are important to soccer performance, particularly when players are required to win duels of a physical nature. There were no other relationships found between the fitness data and the KPI's recorded during match play which may indicate that other aspects of player's development such as technical skill, cognitive function and sensory awareness are more important for soccer-specific performance.

Determination of an effective scoring function for RNA-RNA interactions with a physics-based double-iterative method.

PubMed

Yan, Yumeng; Wen, Zeyu; Zhang, Di; Huang, Sheng-You

2018-05-18

RNA-RNA interactions play fundamental roles in gene and cell regulation. Therefore, accurate prediction of RNA-RNA interactions is critical to determine their complex structures and understand the molecular mechanism of the interactions. Here, we have developed a physics-based double-iterative strategy to determine the effective potentials for RNA-RNA interactions based on a training set of 97 diverse RNA-RNA complexes. The double-iterative strategy circumvented the reference state problem in knowledge-based scoring functions by updating the potentials through iteration and also overcame the decoy-dependent limitation in previous iterative methods by constructing the decoys iteratively. The derived scoring function, which is referred to as DITScoreRR, was evaluated on an RNA-RNA docking benchmark of 60 test cases and compared with three other scoring functions. It was shown that for bound docking, our scoring function DITScoreRR obtained the excellent success rates of 90% and 98.3% in binding mode predictions when the top 1 and 10 predictions were considered, compared to 63.3% and 71.7% for van der Waals interactions, 45.0% and 65.0% for ITScorePP, and 11.7% and 26.7% for ZDOCK 2.1, respectively. For unbound docking, DITScoreRR achieved the good success rates of 53.3% and 71.7% in binding mode predictions when the top 1 and 10 predictions were considered, compared to 13.3% and 28.3% for van der Waals interactions, 11.7% and 26.7% for our ITScorePP, and 3.3% and 6.7% for ZDOCK 2.1, respectively. DITScoreRR also performed significantly better in ranking decoys and obtained significantly higher score-RMSD correlations than the other three scoring functions. DITScoreRR will be of great value for the prediction and design of RNA structures and RNA-RNA complexes.

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Prediction for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, Bruce A.; Backus, Jane A.; Manno, Michael V.; Waters, Deborah L.; Cameron, Kevin C.; deGroh, Kim K.

2009-01-01

The ability to predict the atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on their chemistry and physical properties has been only partially successful because of a lack of reliable low Earth orbit (LEO) erosion yield data. Unfortunately, many of the early experiments did not utilize dehydrated mass loss measurements for erosion yield determination, and the resulting mass loss due to atomic oxygen exposure may have been compromised because samples were often not in consistent states of dehydration during the pre-flight and post-flight mass measurements. This is a particular problem for short duration mission exposures or low erosion yield materials. However, as a result of the retrieval of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2), the erosion yields of 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite were accurately measured. The experiment was exposed to the LEO environment for 3.95 years from August 16, 2001 to July 30, 2005 and was successfully retrieved during a space walk on July 30, 2005 during Discovery s STS-114 Return to Flight mission. The 40 different materials tested (including Kapton H fluence witness samples) were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The MISSE 2 PEACE Polymers experiment used carefully dehydrated mass measurements, as well as accurate density measurements to obtain accurate erosion yield data for high-fluence (8.43 1021 atoms/sq cm). The resulting data was used to develop an erosion yield predictive tool with a correlation coefficient of 0.895 and uncertainty of +/-6.3 10(exp -25)cu cm/atom. The predictive tool utilizes the chemical structures and physical properties of polymers to predict in-space atomic oxygen erosion yields. A predictive tool concept (September 2009 version) is presented which represents an improvement over an earlier (December 2008) version.

Predictors of Success in Dental Hygiene Education: A Six-Year Review.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Downey, Mary C.; Collins, Marie A.; Browning, William D.

2002-01-01

Examined the predictive reliability of incoming grade point average (GPA), incoming math/science GPA, and Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores in predicting success in dental hygiene education. Found that GPA was the most significant predictor of success. (EV)

Prediction of successful weight reduction after bariatric surgery by data mining technologies.

PubMed

Lee, Yi-Chih; Lee, Wei-Jei; Lee, Tian-Shyug; Lin, Yang-Chu; Wang, Weu; Liew, Phui-Ly; Huang, Ming-Te; Chien, Ching-Wen

2007-09-01

Surgery is the only long-lasting effective treatment for morbid obesity. Prediction on successful weight loss after surgery by data mining technologies is lacking. We analyze the available information during the initial evaluation of patients referred to bariatric surgery by data mining methods for predictors of successful weight loss. 249 patients undergoing laparoscopic mini-gastric bypass (LMGB) or adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) were enrolled. Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technologies were used to predict weight loss. Overall classification capability of the designed diagnostic models was evaluated by the misclassification costs. We studied 249 patients consisting of 72 men and 177 women over 2 years. Mean age was 33 +/- 9 years. 208 (83.5%) patients had successful weight reduction while 41 (16.5%) did not. Logistic Regression revealed that the type of operation had a significant prediction effect (P = 0.000). Patients receiving LMGB had a better weight loss than those receiving LAGB (78.54% +/- 26.87 vs 43.65% +/- 26.08). ANN provided the same predicted factor on the type of operation but it further proposed that HbAlc and triglyceride were associated with success. HbAlc is lower in the successful than failed group (5.81 +/- 1.06 vs 6.05 +/- 1.49; P = NS), and triglyceride in the successful group is higher than in the failed group (171.29 +/- 112.62 vs 144.07 +/- 89.90; P = NS). Artificial neural network is a better modeling technique and the overall predictive accuracy is higher on the basis of multiple variables related to laboratory tests. LMGB, high preoperative triglyceride level, and low HbAlc level can predict successful weight reduction at 2 years.

Prediction and validation of diffusion coefficients in a model drug delivery system using microsecond atomistic molecular dynamics simulation and vapour sorption analysis.

PubMed

Forrey, Christopher; Saylor, David M; Silverstein, Joshua S; Douglas, Jack F; Davis, Eric M; Elabd, Yossef A

2014-10-14

Diffusion of small to medium sized molecules in polymeric medical device materials underlies a broad range of public health concerns related to unintended leaching from or uptake into implantable medical devices. However, obtaining accurate diffusion coefficients for such systems at physiological temperature represents a formidable challenge, both experimentally and computationally. While molecular dynamics simulation has been used to accurately predict the diffusion coefficients, D, of a handful of gases in various polymers, this success has not been extended to molecules larger than gases, e.g., condensable vapours, liquids, and drugs. We present atomistic molecular dynamics simulation predictions of diffusion in a model drug eluting system that represent a dramatic improvement in accuracy compared to previous simulation predictions for comparable systems. We find that, for simulations of insufficient duration, sub-diffusive dynamics can lead to dramatic over-prediction of D. We present useful metrics for monitoring the extent of sub-diffusive dynamics and explore how these metrics correlate to error in D. We also identify a relationship between diffusion and fast dynamics in our system, which may serve as a means to more rapidly predict diffusion in slowly diffusing systems. Our work provides important precedent and essential insights for utilizing atomistic molecular dynamics simulations to predict diffusion coefficients of small to medium sized molecules in condensed soft matter systems.

PSYCHOLOGY. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science.

PubMed

2015-08-28

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Dissecting polyclonal vaccine-induced humoral immunity against HIV using Systems Serology

PubMed Central

Chung, Amy W.; Kumar, Manu P.; Arnold, Kelly B.; Yu, Wen Han; Schoen, Matthew K.; Dunphy, Laura J.; Suscovich, Todd J.; Frahm, Nicole; Linde, Caitlyn; Mahan, Alison E.; Hoffner, Michelle; Streeck, Hendrik; Ackerman, Margaret E.; McElrath, M. Juliana; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Pau, Maria G.; Baden, Lindsey R.; Kim, Jerome H.; Michael, Nelson L.; Barouch, Dan H.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.; Alter, Galit

2017-01-01

While antibody titers and neutralization are considered the gold standard for the selection of successful vaccines, these parameters are often inadequate predictors of protective immunity. As antibodies mediate an array of extra-neutralizing Fc-functions, when neutralization fails to predict protection, investigating Fc-mediated activity may help identify immunological correlates and mechanism(s) of humoral protection. Here, we used an integrative approach termed Systems Serology to analyze relationships among humoral responses elicited in four HIV vaccine-trials. Each vaccine regimen induced a unique humoral “Fc-fingerprint”. Moreover, analysis of case:control data from the first moderately protective HIV vaccine trial, RV144, pointed to mechanistic insights into immune complex composition that may underlie protective immunity to HIV. Thus, multi-dimensional relational comparisons of vaccine humoral fingerprints offer a unique approach for the evaluation and design of novel vaccines against pathogens for which correlates of protection remain elusive. PMID:26544943

Predicting oscillatory dynamics in the movement of territorial animals.

PubMed

Giuggioli, L; Potts, J R; Harris, S

2012-07-07

Understanding ecological processes relies upon the knowledge of the dynamics of each individual component. In the context of animal population ecology, the way animals move and interact is of fundamental importance in explaining a variety of observed patterns. Here, we present a theoretical investigation on the movement dynamics of interacting scent-marking animals. We study how the movement statistics of territorial animals is responsible for the appearance of damped oscillations in the mean square displacement (MSD) of the animals. This non-monotonicity is shown to depend on one dimensionless parameter, given by the ratio of the correlation distance between successive steps to the size of the territory. As that parameter increases, the time dependence of the animal's MSD displays a transition from monotonic, characteristic of Brownian walks, to non-monotonic, characteristic of highly correlated walks. The results presented here represent a novel way of determining the degree of persistence in animal movement processes within confined regions.

Predicting oscillatory dynamics in the movement of territorial animals

PubMed Central

Giuggioli, L.; Potts, J. R.; Harris, S.

2012-01-01

Understanding ecological processes relies upon the knowledge of the dynamics of each individual component. In the context of animal population ecology, the way animals move and interact is of fundamental importance in explaining a variety of observed patterns. Here, we present a theoretical investigation on the movement dynamics of interacting scent-marking animals. We study how the movement statistics of territorial animals is responsible for the appearance of damped oscillations in the mean square displacement (MSD) of the animals. This non-monotonicity is shown to depend on one dimensionless parameter, given by the ratio of the correlation distance between successive steps to the size of the territory. As that parameter increases, the time dependence of the animal's MSD displays a transition from monotonic, characteristic of Brownian walks, to non-monotonic, characteristic of highly correlated walks. The results presented here represent a novel way of determining the degree of persistence in animal movement processes within confined regions. PMID:22262814

Analysis/forecast experiments with a multivariate statistical analysis scheme using FGGE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Bloom, S. C.; Nestler, M. S.

1985-01-01

A three-dimensional, multivariate, statistical analysis method, optimal interpolation (OI) is described for modeling meteorological data from widely dispersed sites. The model was developed to analyze FGGE data at the NASA-Goddard Laboratory of Atmospherics. The model features a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans, including maintenance of the Ekman balance and a geographically dependent correlation function. Preliminary comparisons are made between the OI model and similar schemes employed at the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the National Meteorological Center. The OI scheme is used to provide input to a GCM, and model error correlations are calculated for forecasts of 500 mb vertical water mixing ratios and the wind profiles. Comparisons are made between the predictions and measured data. The model is shown to be as accurate as a successive corrections model out to 4.5 days.

Correlates of Successful Response to a Behavioral Weight Control Clinic.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

And Others; Gormally, Jim

1980-01-01

Initial weight-loss success was correlated with two severity variables. Persons reporting frequent binge eating and histories of previous dieting weight loss lost the most weight. Persons who were successful at maintenance used frequent exercise. Those who relapsed reported high levels of stress during follow-up. (Author)

Correlating Top Agency Success with Educational Background.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donnelly, William J.

1992-01-01

Investigates whether there is any correlation between successful advertising agency careers and undergraduate education. Finds that the educational tracks pursued by executives of the top 50 advertising agencies are so varied and remarkably evenly distributed that educational background appears to have little, if any, to do with success in…

Moving beyond GPA: Alternative Measures of Success and Predictive Factors in Honors Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mould, Tom; DeLoach, Stephen B.

2017-01-01

While studies of predictive factors for success in honors have been increasingly creative and expansive on what these factors might include, they have rarely challenged the dominant, virtually monolithic definitions of success. The majority of studies measure success either by collegiate grade point averages (GPAs) or retention rates in honors,…

Predicting Success in an Online Course Using Expectancies, Values, and Typical Mode of Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia

2017-01-01

Expectancies of success and values were used to predict success in an online undergraduate-level introductory statistics course. Students who identified as primarily face-to-face learners were compared to students who identified as primarily online learners. Expectancy value theory served as a model. Expectancies of success were operationalized as…

Predicting Mission Success in Small Satellite Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saunders, Mark; Richie, Wayne; Rogers, John; Moore, Arlene

1992-01-01

In our global society with its increasing international competition and tighter financial resources, governments, commercial entities and other organizations are becoming critically aware of the need to ensure that space missions can be achieved on time and within budget. This has become particularly true for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Office of Space Science (OSS) which has developed their Discovery and Explorer programs to meet this need. As technologies advance, space missions are becoming smaller and more capable than their predecessors. The ability to predict the mission success of these small satellite missions is critical to the continued achievement of NASA science mission objectives. The NASA Office of Space Science, in cooperation with the NASA Langley Research Center, has implemented a process to predict the likely success of missions proposed to its Discovery and Explorer Programs. This process is becoming the basis for predicting mission success in many other NASA programs as well. This paper describes the process, methodology, tools and synthesis techniques used to predict mission success for this class of mission.

Predicting Mission Success in Small Satellite Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saunders, Mark; Richie, R. Wayne; Moore, Arlene; Rogers, John

1999-01-01

In our global society with its increasing international competition and tighter financial resources, governments, commercial entities and other organizations are becoming critically aware of the need to ensure that space missions can be achieved on time and within budget. This has become particularly true for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Office of Space Science (OSS) which has developed their Discovery and Explorer programs to meet this need. As technologies advance, space missions are becoming smaller and more capable than their predecessors. The ability to predict the mission success of these small satellite missions is critical to the continued achievement of NASA science mission objectives. The NASA Office of Space Science, in cooperation with the NASA Langley Research Center, has implemented a process to predict the likely success of missions proposed to its Discovery and Explorer Programs. This process is becoming the basis for predicting mission success in many other NASA programs as well. This paper describes the process, methodology, tools and synthesis techniques used to predict mission success for this class of mission.

Papain hydrolysis of X-phenyl-N-methanesulfonyl glycinates: a quantitative structure-activity relationship and molecular graphics analysis.

PubMed

Carotti, A; Smith, R N; Wong, S; Hansch, C; Blaney, J M; Langridge, R

1984-02-15

The hydrolysis of 32 X-phenyl-N-methanesulfonyl glycinates by papain was investigated. It was found that the variation in the Michaelis constants could be rationalized by the following correlation equation: log 1/Km = 0.61 pi '3 + 0.46 MR4 + 0.55 sigma + 2.00 with a correlation coefficient of 0.945. In this expression, pi '3 is the hydrophobic constant for the more lipophilic of the two possible meta substituents, MR4 is the molar refractivity of 4-substituents, and sigma is the Hammett constant summed for all substituents. Using this equation, we designed, synthesized, and successfully predicted Km for a new congener intended to maximize binding (1/Km). The interactions involved in enzyme-substrate binding, as characterized by the correlation equation, are interpreted using a computer-constructed color three-dimensional-graphics molecular model of the enzyme active site. The nonenzymatic hydrolysis (both acid and basic) of phenyl hippurates yield rate constants which are well correlated by Hammett equations; however, log k for both acid and alkaline hydrolysis are not linearly related to log 1/Km or log kcat/Km.

Staff nurse perceptions of nurse manager leadership styles and outcomes.

PubMed

Casida, Jesus; Parker, Jessica

2011-05-01

To explore the correlations of leadership styles of nurse managers (NMs) and outcomes.   Little is known about the linkages among leadership styles [transformational (TFL), transactional (TRL)] of NMs and outcomes [a leader's extra effort (LEE), leadership satisfaction (LS) and effectiveness (LE)] using the full-range leadership theory. Methods  An exploratory correlational design was employed using data from a 2007 study in which staff nurses (n = 278) from four hospitals in the Northeastern US were asked to rate the leadership styles of NMs (n = 37) and outcomes using the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire Form 5x-Short. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical methods. TFL leadership has strong correlations to LEE, LS and LE, and was a predictor for leadership outcomes. Conversely, TRL leadership has week correlations to LEE, LS and LE and did not predict leadership outcomes. NMs who frequently display TFL leadership styles will probably achieve goals in a satisfying manner, warranting further research. TFL leadership training should be a basic competency requirement of NMs. Placing successful and effective TFL leaders in nursing units are the professional and moral obligations of nurse executives. © 2011 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Investigating the Functional Utility of the Left Parietal ERP Old/New Effect: Brain Activity Predicts within But Not between Participant Variance in Episodic Recollection

PubMed Central

MacLeod, Catherine A.; Donaldson, David I.

2017-01-01

A success story within neuroimaging has been the discovery of distinct neural correlates of episodic retrieval, providing insight into the processes that support memory for past life events. Here we focus on one commonly reported neural correlate, the left parietal old/new effect, a positive going modulation seen in event-related potential (ERP) data that is widely considered to index episodic recollection. Substantial evidence links changes in the size of the left parietal effect to changes in remembering, but the precise functional utility of the effect remains unclear. Here, using forced choice recognition of verbal stimuli, we present a novel population level test of the hypothesis that the magnitude of the left parietal effect correlates with memory performance. We recorded ERPs during old/new recognition, source accuracy and Remember/Know/Guess tasks in two large samples of healthy young adults, and successfully replicated existing within participant modulations of the magnitude of the left parietal effect with recollection. Critically, however, both datasets also show that across participants the magnitude of the left parietal effect does not correlate with behavioral measures of memory – including both subjective and objective estimates of recollection. We conclude that in these tasks, and across this healthy young adult population, the generators of the left parietal ERP effect do not index performance as expected. Taken together, these novel findings provide important constraints on the functional interpretation of the left parietal effect, suggesting that between group differences in the magnitude of old/new effects cannot always safely be used to infer differences in recollection. PMID:29259551

Pharmacists levels of emotionality and career success correlates: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Lonie, John M; Marzella, Nino; Perry, Richard; Shah, Bupendra; Jariwala, Jesal

2015-06-01

The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the relationships between Emotional Thinking Scale (ETS) scores and demographic variables such as income, years worked as a pharmacist, and hours worked per week and (2) determine the distribution of ETS scores among this sample of pharmacists. These objectives are significant to explore because they may provide important data regarding effective and ineffective pharmacist work-related behaviors that affect career and life success. A convenience sample of practicing pharmacists was selected. Participants completed the 8-item ETS and a demographic survey. The ETS predicts how an individual's thoughts might influence his or her emotions and behaviors. Researchers analyzed participant's ETS scores with his or her demographic responses. Data were analyzed using SPSS statistical software. One hundred twenty-five pharmacists completed the survey. Twenty-one percent of the sample scored between slightly high and very extremely high on the ETS. "often being incapacitated by strong feelings" correlated negatively with annual income r = -.309 (P = .008); "relying on feelings to deal with complex situations" correlated negatively with annual income r = -.253 (P = .026), with the "number of years practicing pharmacy" r = -.317 (P = .007), and "number of hours worked each week" r = -.317 (P = .007); and "focusing on details thus losing the big picture" was correlated negatively with annual income r = .215 (P = .05). These findings are consistent with the previous ETS research. The variables of interest in this study were negatively but significantly related. Emotional thinking scores decreased with pharmacy practice experience and may be counterproductive for career goals. Entry-level pharmacy education and continuing education programs may help develop self-awareness to this issue. © The Author(s) 2014.

Initial Validation for the Estimation of Resting-State fMRI Effective Connectivity by a Generalization of the Correlation Approach

PubMed Central

Xu, Nan; Spreng, R. Nathan; Doerschuk, Peter C.

2017-01-01

Resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) is widely used to noninvasively study human brain networks. Network functional connectivity is often estimated by calculating the timeseries correlation between blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) signal from different regions of interest (ROIs). However, standard correlation cannot characterize the direction of information flow between regions. In this paper, we introduce and test a new concept, prediction correlation, to estimate effective connectivity in functional brain networks from rs-fMRI. In this approach, the correlation between two BOLD signals is replaced by a correlation between one BOLD signal and a prediction of this signal via a causal system driven by another BOLD signal. Three validations are described: (1) Prediction correlation performed well on simulated data where the ground truth was known, and outperformed four other methods. (2) On simulated data designed to display the “common driver” problem, prediction correlation did not introduce false connections between non-interacting driven ROIs. (3) On experimental data, prediction correlation recovered the previously identified network organization of human brain. Prediction correlation scales well to work with hundreds of ROIs, enabling it to assess whole brain interregional connectivity at the single subject level. These results provide an initial validation that prediction correlation can capture the direction of information flow and estimate the duration of extended temporal delays in information flow between regions of interest ROIs based on BOLD signal. This approach not only maintains the high sensitivity to network connectivity provided by the correlation analysis, but also performs well in the estimation of causal information flow in the brain. PMID:28559793

Correlating the ground truth of mammographic histology with the success or failure of imaging.

PubMed

Tot, Tibor

2005-02-01

Detailed and systematic mammographic-pathologic correlation is essential for evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of mammography as an imaging method as well as for establishing the role of additional methods or alternatives. Two- and three-dimensional large section histopathology represents an ideal tool for this correlation. This kind of interdisciplinary approach ("mammographic histology") is slowly but irrevocably becoming accepted as the new golden standard in diagnosing breast abnormalities. In this review, upon summarizing the theoretical background and our practical experience in routine diagnostic use of these advantageous techniques, we report on the accuracy of the preoperative radiological diagnosis. As compared to the final diagnostic outcome, stellate lesions on the mammogram and microcalcifications of casting type indicate malignancy with very high accuracy while predicting malignancy in cases of powdery and crushed stone type microcalcifications is problematic. The extent of the disease is regularly underestimated on the mammogram by the radiologist. Combining different radiological signs, and comparing repeated static images taken in regular intervals in screening or postoperative follow-up, the mammographer may type and grade the lesions properly in a considerable number of cases. Regular mammographic-pathologic correlation may increase the specificity and sensitivity of mammographic diagnosis. This correlation is essential for establishing the proper pre- and postoperative histological diagnosis, too.

Instant preheating in quintessential inflation with α -attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Wood, Leonora Donaldson; Owen, Charlotte

2018-03-01

We investigate a compelling model of quintessential inflation in the context of α -attractors, which naturally result in a scalar potential featuring two flat regions; the inflationary plateau and the quintessential tail. The "asymptotic freedom" of α -attractors, near the kinetic poles, suppresses radiative corrections and interactions, which would otherwise threaten to lift the flatness of the quintessential tail and cause a 5th-force problem respectively. Since this is a nonoscillatory inflation model, we reheat the Universe through instant preheating. The parameter space is constrained by both inflation and dark energy requirements. We find an excellent correlation between the inflationary observables and model predictions, in agreement with the α -attractors setup. We also obtain successful quintessence for natural values of the parameters. Our model predicts potentially sizeable tensor perturbations (at the level of 1%) and a slightly varying equation of state for dark energy, to be probed in the near future.

Mechanical, electronic and thermodynamic properties of full Heusler compounds Fe2VX(X = Al, Ga)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalfa, M.; Khachai, H.; Chiker, F.; Baki, N.; Bougherara, K.; Yakoubi, A.; Murtaza, G.; Harmel, M.; Abu-Jafar, M. S.; Omran, S. Bin; Khenata, R.

2015-11-01

The electronic structure, mechanical and thermodynamic properties of Fe2VX, (with X = Al and Ga), have been studied self consistently by employing state-of-the-art full-potential linearized approach of augmented plane wave plus local orbitals (FP-LAPW + lo) method. The exchange-correlation potential is treated with the local density and generalized gradient approximations (LDA and GGA). Our predicted ground state properties such as lattice constants, bulk modulus and elastic constants appear more accurate when we employed the GGA rather than the LDA, and these results are in very good agreement with the available experimental and theoretical data. Further, thermodynamic properties of Fe2VAl and Fe2VGa are predicted with pressure and temperature in the ranges of 0-40 GPa and 0-1500 K using the quasi-harmonic Debye model. We have obtained successfully the variations of the heat capacities, primitive cell volume and volume expansion coefficient.

Evidence from data storage tags for the presence of lunar and semilunar behavioral cycles in spawning Atlantic cod

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grabowski, Timothy B.; McAdam, Bruce J.; Thorsteinsson, Vilhjalmur; Marteinsdóttir, Gudrún

2015-01-01

Understanding the environmental processes determining the timing and success of reproduction is of critical importance to developing effective management strategies of marine fishes. Unfortunately it has proven difficult to comprehensively study the reproductive behavior of broadcast-spawning fishes. The use of electronic data storage tags (DSTs) has the potential to provide insights into the behavior of fishes. These tags allow for data collection over relatively large spatial and temporal scales that can be correlated to predicted environmental conditions and ultimately be used to refine predictions of year class strength. In this paper we present data retrieved from DSTs demonstrating that events putatively identified as Atlantic cod spawning behavior is tied to a lunar cycle with a pronounced semi-lunar cycle within it. Peak activity occurs around the full and new moon with no evidence of relationship with day/night cycles.

Genomic signatures predict migration and spawning failure in wild Canadian salmon.

PubMed

Miller, Kristina M; Li, Shaorong; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma; Hammill, Edd; Curtis, Janelle M R; Patterson, David A; Sierocinski, Thomas; Donnison, Louise; Pavlidis, Paul; Hinch, Scott G; Hruska, Kimberly A; Cooke, Steven J; English, Karl K; Farrell, Anthony P

2011-01-14

Long-term population viability of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) is threatened by unusually high levels of mortality as they swim to their spawning areas before they spawn. Functional genomic studies on biopsied gill tissue from tagged wild adults that were tracked through ocean and river environments revealed physiological profiles predictive of successful migration and spawning. We identified a common genomic profile that was correlated with survival in each study. In ocean-tagged fish, a mortality-related genomic signature was associated with a 13.5-fold greater chance of dying en route. In river-tagged fish, the same genomic signature was associated with a 50% increase in mortality before reaching the spawning grounds in one of three stocks tested. At the spawning grounds, the same signature was associated with 3.7-fold greater odds of dying without spawning. Functional analysis raises the possibility that the mortality-related signature reflects a viral infection.

VEGA Launch Vehicle: VV02 Flight Campaign Thermal Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moroni, D.; Perugini, P.; Mancini, R.; Bonnet, M.

2014-06-01

A reliable tool for the prediction of temperature trends vs. time during the operative timeline of a launcher represents one of the key elements for the qualification of a launch vehicle itself.The correct evaluation of the thermal behaviour during the mission, both for the launcher elements (structures, electronic items, tanks, motors...) and for the Payloads carried by the same Launcher, is one of the preliminary activities to be performed before a flight campaign.For such scope AVIO constructed a Thermal Mathematical Model (TMM) by means of the ESA software "ESATAN Thermal Modelling Suite (TMS)" [1] used for the prediction of the temperature trends both on VV01 (VEGA LV Qualification Flight) and VV02 (First VEGA LV commercial flight) with successfully results in terms of post-flight comparison with the sensor data outputs.Aim of this paper is to show the correlation obtained by AVIO VEGA LV SYS TMM in the frame of VV02 Flight.

Numerical Modeling of Flow Distribution in Micro-Fluidics Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, Alok; Cole, Helen; Chen, C. P.

2005-01-01

This paper describes an application of a general purpose computer program, GFSSP (Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program) for calculating flow distribution in a network of micro-channels. GFSSP employs a finite volume formulation of mass and momentum conservation equations in a network consisting of nodes and branches. Mass conservation equation is solved for pressures at the nodes while the momentum conservation equation is solved at the branches to calculate flowrate. The system of equations describing the fluid network is solved by a numerical method that is a combination of the Newton-Raphson and successive substitution methods. The numerical results have been compared with test data and detailed CFD (computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations. The agreement between test data and predictions is satisfactory. The discrepancies between the predictions and test data can be attributed to the frictional correlation which does not include the effect of surface tension or electro-kinetic effect.

Turbopumps for cryogenic upper stage engines. [fabrication and evaluation of turbine pumps for liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zachary, A. T.; Csomor, A.; Tignac, L. L.

1973-01-01

Small, high-performance LO2 and LH2 turbopump assembly configurations were selected, detail designs were prepared and two of each unit were fabricated with each unit consisting of pump, turbine gas generator, and appropriate controls. Following fabrication, development testing was conducted on each type to demonstrate performance, durability, transient characteristics, and heat transfer under simulated altitude conditions. Following successful completion of development effort, the two LO2 turbopump units and one LH2 turbopump unit were acceptance tested as specified. Inspection of the units following development testing revealed no deleterious effects of testing. The test results of LO2 turbopump assembly testing correlated well with predicted performance while the LH2 turbopump test results, though generally consistent with predicted values, did show lower than anticipated developed head at the design point and in the high flow range of operation.

Predicting mortality rates: Comparison of an administrative predictive model (hospital standardized mortality ratio) with a physiological predictive model (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV)--A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Toua, Rene Elaine; de Kock, Jacques Erasmus; Welzel, Tyson

2016-02-01

Direct comparison of mortality rates has limited value because most deaths are due to the disease process. Predicting the risk of death accurately remains a challenge. A cross-sectional study compared the expected mortality rate as calculated with an administrative model to a physiological model, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV. The combined cohort and stratified samples (<0.1, 0.1-0.5, or >0.5 predicted mortality) were considered. A total of 47,982 patients were scored from 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014, and 46,061 records were included in the analysis. A moderate correlation was shown for the combined cohort (Pearson correlation index, 0.618; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.380-0.779; R(2) = 0.38). A very good correlation for the less than 10% stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.884; R(2) = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.79-0.937) and a moderate correlation for 0.1 to 0.5 predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation index, 0.782; R(2) = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.623-0.879). There was no significant positive correlation for the greater than 50% predicted mortality stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.087; R(2) = 0.007; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.387). At less than 0.1, the models are interchangeable, but in spite of a moderate correlation, greater than 0.1 hospital standardized mortality ratio cannot be used to predict mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impaction and Prediction: Does Ureteral Wall Thickness Affect the Success of Medical Expulsive Therapy in Pediatric Ureteral Stones?

PubMed

Tuerxun, Aierken; Batuer, Abudukahaer; Erturhan, Sakip; Eryildirim, Bilal; Camur, Emre; Sarica, Kemal

2017-01-01

The study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of ureteral wall thickness (UWT) and stone-related parameters for medical expulsive therapy (MET) success with an alpha blocker in pediatric upper ureteral stones. A total of 35 children receiving MET ureteral stones (<10 mm) were evaluated. Patients were divided into 2 subgroups where MET was successful in 18 children (51.4%) and unsuccessful in 17 children (48.6%). Prior to management, stone size, stone density (in Hounsfield unit), degree of hydronephrosis, and UWT were evaluated with patient demographics and recorded. The possible predictive value of these parameters in success rates and time to stone expulsion were evaluated in a comparative manner between the 2 groups. The overall mean patient age and stone size values were 5.40 ± 0.51 years and 6.24 ± 0.28 mm, respectively. Regarding the predictive values of these parameters for the success of MET, while stone size and UWT were found to be highly predictive for MET success, patients age, body mass index, stone density, and degree of hydronephrosis had no predictive value on this aspect. Our findings indicated that some stone and anatomical factors may be used to predict the success of MET in pediatric ureteral stones in an effective manner. With this approach, unnecessary use of these drugs that may cause a delay in removing the stone will be avoided, and the possible adverse effects of obstruction as well as stone-related clinical symptoms could be minimized. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Systematic bias of correlation coefficient may explain negative accuracy of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Zhou, Yao; Vales, M Isabel; Wang, Aoxue; Zhang, Zhiwu

2017-09-01

Accuracy of genomic prediction is commonly calculated as the Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed phenotypes in the inference population by using cross-validation analysis. More frequently than expected, significant negative accuracies of genomic prediction have been reported in genomic selection studies. These negative values are surprising, given that the minimum value for prediction accuracy should hover around zero when randomly permuted data sets are analyzed. We reviewed the two common approaches for calculating the Pearson correlation and hypothesized that these negative accuracy values reflect potential bias owing to artifacts caused by the mathematical formulas used to calculate prediction accuracy. The first approach, Instant accuracy, calculates correlations for each fold and reports prediction accuracy as the mean of correlations across fold. The other approach, Hold accuracy, predicts all phenotypes in all fold and calculates correlation between the observed and predicted phenotypes at the end of the cross-validation process. Using simulated and real data, we demonstrated that our hypothesis is true. Both approaches are biased downward under certain conditions. The biases become larger when more fold are employed and when the expected accuracy is low. The bias of Instant accuracy can be corrected using a modified formula. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Factors predicting labor induction success: a critical analysis.

PubMed

Crane, Joan M G

2006-09-01

Because of the risk of failed induction of labor, a variety of maternal and fetal factors as well as screening tests have been suggested to predict labor induction success. Certain characteristics of the woman (including parity, age, weight, height and body mass index), and of the fetus (including birth weight and gestational age) are associated with the success of labor induction; with parous, young women who are taller and lower weight having a higher rate of induction success. Fetuses with a lower birth weight or increased gestational age are also associated with increased induction success. The condition of the cervix at the start of induction is an important predictor, with the modified Bishop score being a widely used scoring system. The most important element of the Bishop score is dilatation. Other predictors, including transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) and biochemical markers [including fetal fibronectin (fFN)] have been suggested. Meta-analyses of studies identified from MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE and published from 1990 to October 2005 were performed evaluating the use of TVUS and fFN in predicting labor induction success in women at term with singleton gestations. Both TVUS and Bishop score predicted successful induction [likelihood ratio (LR)=1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.51-2.20 and LR=2.10, 95%CI=1.67-2.64, respectively]. As well, fFN and Bishop score predicted successful induction (LR=1.49, 95%CI=1.20-1.85, and LR=2.62, 95%CI=1.88-3.64, respectively). Although TVUS and fFN predicted successful labor induction, neither has been shown to be superior to Bishop score. Further research is needed to evaluate these potential predictors and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), another potential biochemical marker.

The relationship of transversus abdominis and lumbar multifidus activation and prognostic factors for clinical success with a stabilization exercise program: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Hebert, Jeffrey J; Koppenhaver, Shane L; Magel, John S; Fritz, Julie M

2010-01-01

Hebert JJ, Koppenhaver SL, Magel JS, Fritz JM. The relationship of transversus abdominis and lumbar multifidus activation and prognostic factors for clinical success with a stabilization exercise program: a cross-sectional study. To examine the relationship between prognostic factors for clinical success with a stabilization exercise program and lumbar multifidus (LM) and transversus abdominis (TrA) muscle activation assessed using rehabilitative ultrasound imaging (RUSI). Cross-sectional study. Outpatient physical therapy clinic. Volunteers with current low back pain (N=40). Not applicable. We examined the relationship between prognostic factors associated with clinical success with a stabilization exercise program (positive prone instability test, age <40y, aberrant movements, straight leg raise >91 degrees , presence of lumbar hypermobility) and degree of TrA and LM muscle activation assessed by RUSI. Significant univariate relationships were identified between LM muscle activation and the number of prognostic factors present (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] =-.558, P=.001), as well as the individual factors of a positive prone instability test (point biserial correlation coefficient [r(pbis)]=.376, P=.018) and segmental hypermobility (r(pbis)=.358, P=.025). The multivariate analyses indicated that after controlling for other variables, the addition of the variable "number of prognostic factors present" resulted in a significant increase in R(2) (P=.006). No significant univariate or multivariate relationships were observed between the prognostic factors and TrA muscle activation. Decreased LM muscle activation, but not TrA muscle activation, is associated with the presence of factors predictive of clinical success with a stabilization exercise program. Our findings provide researchers and clinicians with evidence regarding the construct validity of the prognostic factors examined in this study, as well as the potential clinical importance of the LM muscle as a target for stabilization exercises. Copyright (c) 2010 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictions of BuChE inhibitors using support vector machine and naive Bayesian classification techniques in drug discovery.

PubMed

Fang, Jiansong; Yang, Ranyao; Gao, Li; Zhou, Dan; Yang, Shengqian; Liu, Ai-Lin; Du, Guan-hua

2013-11-25

Butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE, EC 3.1.1.8) is an important pharmacological target for Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment. However, the currently available BuChE inhibitor screening assays are expensive, labor-intensive, and compound-dependent. It is necessary to develop robust in silico methods to predict the activities of BuChE inhibitors for the lead identification. In this investigation, support vector machine (SVM) models and naive Bayesian models were built to discriminate BuChE inhibitors (BuChEIs) from the noninhibitors. Each molecule was initially represented in 1870 structural descriptors (1235 from ADRIANA.Code, 334 from MOE, and 301 from Discovery studio). Correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection method were applied to figure out activity-related descriptors for prediction models. Additionally, structural fingerprint descriptors were added to improve the predictive ability of models, which were measured by cross-validation, a test set validation with 1001 compounds and an external test set validation with 317 diverse chemicals. The best two models gave Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.9551 and 0.9550 for the test set and 0.9132 and 0.9221 for the external test set. To demonstrate the practical applicability of the models in virtual screening, we screened an in-house data set with 3601 compounds, and 30 compounds were selected for further bioactivity assay. The assay results showed that 10 out of 30 compounds exerted significant BuChE inhibitory activities with IC50 values ranging from 0.32 to 22.22 μM, at which three new scaffolds as BuChE inhibitors were identified for the first time. To our best knowledge, this is the first report on BuChE inhibitors using machine learning approaches. The models generated from SVM and naive Bayesian approaches successfully predicted BuChE inhibitors. The study proved the feasibility of a new method for predicting bioactivities of ligands and discovering novel lead compounds.

An Empirical Research on the Correlation between Human Capital and Career Success of Knowledge Workers in Enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Wenchen; Xiao, Hongjun; Yang, Xi

Human capital plays an important part in employability of knowledge workers, also it is the important intangible assets of company. This paper explores the correlation between human capital and career success of knowledge workers. Based on literature retrieval, we identified measuring tool of career success and modified further; measuring human capital with self-developed scale of high reliability and validity. After exploratory factor analysis, we suggest that human capital contents four dimensions, including education, work experience, learning ability and training; career success contents three dimensions, including perceived internal competitiveness of organization, perceived external competitiveness of organization and career satisfaction. The result of empirical analysis indicates that there is a positive correlation between human capital and career success, and human capital is an excellent predictor of career success beyond demographics variables.

Male dominance rank and reproductive success in chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii.

PubMed

Wroblewski, Emily E; Murray, Carson M; Keele, Brandon F; Schumacher-Stankey, Joann C; Hahn, Beatrice H; Pusey, Anne E

2009-01-01

Competition for fertile females determines male reproductive success in many species. The priority of access model predicts that male dominance rank determines access to females, but this model has been difficult to test in wild populations, particularly in promiscuous mating systems. Tests of the model have produced variable results, probably because of the differing socioecological circumstances of individual species and populations. We tested the predictions of the priority of access model in the chimpanzees of Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Chimpanzees are an interesting species in which to test the model because of their fission-fusion grouping patterns, promiscuous mating system and alternative male mating strategies. We determined paternity for 34 offspring over a 22-year period and found that the priority of access model was generally predictive of male reproductive success. However, we found that younger males had higher success per male than older males, and low-ranking males sired more offspring than predicted. Low-ranking males sired offspring with younger, less desirable females and by engaging in consortships more often than high-ranking fathers. Although alpha males never sired offspring with related females, inbreeding avoidance of high-ranking male relatives did not completely explain the success of low-ranking males. While our work confirms that male rank typically predicts male chimpanzee reproductive success, other factors are also important; mate choice and alternative male strategies can give low-ranking males access to females more often than would be predicted by the model. Furthermore, the success of younger males suggests that they are more successful in sperm competition.

Structured Set Intra Prediction With Discriminative Learning in a Max-Margin Markov Network for High Efficiency Video Coding

PubMed Central

Dai, Wenrui; Xiong, Hongkai; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Chen, Chang Wen

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a novel model on intra coding for High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC), which simultaneously predicts blocks of pixels with optimal rate distortion. It utilizes the spatial statistical correlation for the optimal prediction based on 2-D contexts, in addition to formulating the data-driven structural interdependences to make the prediction error coherent with the probability distribution, which is desirable for successful transform and coding. The structured set prediction model incorporates a max-margin Markov network (M3N) to regulate and optimize multiple block predictions. The model parameters are learned by discriminating the actual pixel value from other possible estimates to maximize the margin (i.e., decision boundary bandwidth). Compared to existing methods that focus on minimizing prediction error, the M3N-based model adaptively maintains the coherence for a set of predictions. Specifically, the proposed model concurrently optimizes a set of predictions by associating the loss for individual blocks to the joint distribution of succeeding discrete cosine transform coefficients. When the sample size grows, the prediction error is asymptotically upper bounded by the training error under the decomposable loss function. As an internal step, we optimize the underlying Markov network structure to find states that achieve the maximal energy using expectation propagation. For validation, we integrate the proposed model into HEVC for optimal mode selection on rate-distortion optimization. The proposed prediction model obtains up to 2.85% bit rate reduction and achieves better visual quality in comparison to the HEVC intra coding. PMID:25505829

Youth Sport Readiness: A Predictive Model for Success.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aicinena, Steven

1992-01-01

A model for predicting organized youth sport participation readiness has four predictive components: sport-related fundamental motor skill development; sport-specific knowledge; motivation; and socialization. Physical maturation is also important. The model emphasizes the importance of preparing children for successful participation through…

Temporally Adaptive Sampling: A Case Study in Rare Species Survey Design with Marbled Salamanders (Ambystoma opacum)

PubMed Central

Charney, Noah D.; Kubel, Jacob E.; Eiseman, Charles S.

2015-01-01

Improving detection rates for elusive species with clumped distributions is often accomplished through adaptive sampling designs. This approach can be extended to include species with temporally variable detection probabilities. By concentrating survey effort in years when the focal species are most abundant or visible, overall detection rates can be improved. This requires either long-term monitoring at a few locations where the species are known to occur or models capable of predicting population trends using climatic and demographic data. For marbled salamanders (Ambystoma opacum) in Massachusetts, we demonstrate that annual variation in detection probability of larvae is regionally correlated. In our data, the difference in survey success between years was far more important than the difference among the three survey methods we employed: diurnal surveys, nocturnal surveys, and dipnet surveys. Based on these data, we simulate future surveys to locate unknown populations under a temporally adaptive sampling framework. In the simulations, when pond dynamics are correlated over the focal region, the temporally adaptive design improved mean survey success by as much as 26% over a non-adaptive sampling design. Employing a temporally adaptive strategy costs very little, is simple, and has the potential to substantially improve the efficient use of scarce conservation funds. PMID:25799224