Examining the cognitive costs of counterfactual language comprehension: Evidence from ERPs.

PubMed

Ferguson, Heather J; Cane, James E

2015-10-05

Recent empirical research suggests that understanding a counterfactual event (e.g. 'If Josie had revised, she would have passed her exams') activates mental representations of both the factual and counterfactual versions of events. However, it remains unclear when readers switch between these models during comprehension, and whether representing multiple 'worlds' is cognitively effortful. This paper reports two ERP studies where participants read contexts that set up a factual or counterfactual scenario, followed by a second sentence describing a consequence of this event. Critically, this sentence included a noun that was either consistent or inconsistent with the preceding context, and either included a modal verb to indicate reference to the counterfactual-world or not (thus referring to the factual-world). Experiment 2 used adapted versions of the materials used in Experiment 1 to examine the degree to which representing multiple versions of a counterfactual situation makes heavy demands on cognitive resources by measuring individuals' working memory capacity. Results showed that when reference to the counterfactual-world was maintained by the ongoing discourse, readers correctly interpreted events according to the counterfactual-world (i.e. showed larger N400 for inconsistent than consistent words). In contrast, when cues referred back to the factual-world, readers showed no difference between consistent and inconsistent critical words, suggesting that they simultaneously compared information against both possible worlds. These results support previous dual-representation accounts for counterfactuals, and provide new evidence that linguistic cues can guide the reader in selecting which world model to evaluate incoming information against. Crucially, we reveal evidence that maintaining and updating a hypothetical model over time relies upon the availability of cognitive resources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: intersections between memory and decisions.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K

2015-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: Intersections between memory and decisions

PubMed Central

Schacter, Daniel L.; Benoit, Roland G.; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K.

2014-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one’s personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one’s personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. PMID:24373942

Counterfactual Reasoning in Non-psychotic First-Degree Relatives of People with Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Albacete, Auria; Contreras, Fernando; Bosque, Clara; Gilabert, Ester; Albiach, Ángela; Menchón, José M.; Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto; Ayesa-Arriola, Rosa

2016-01-01

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) is a type of conditional reasoning that enables the generation of mental simulations of alternatives to past factual events. Previous research has found this cognitive feature to be disrupted in schizophrenia (Hooker et al., 2000; Contreras et al., 2016). At the same time, the study of cognitive deficits in unaffected relatives of people with schizophrenia has significantly increased, supporting its potential endophenotypic role in this disorder. Using an exploratory approach, the current study examined CFT for the first time in a sample of non-psychotic first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients (N = 43), in comparison with schizophrenia patients (N = 54) and healthy controls (N = 44). A series of tests that assessed the “causal order effect” in CFT and the ability to generate counterfactual thoughts and counterfactually derive inferences using the Counterfactual Inference Test was completed. Associations with variables of basic and social cognition, levels of schizotypy and psychotic-like experiences in addition to clinical and socio-demographic characteristics were also explored. Findings showed that first-degree relatives generated a lower number of counterfactual thoughts than controls, and were more adept at counterfactually deriving inferences, specifically in the scenarios related to regret and to judgments of avoidance in an unusual situation. No other significant results were found. These preliminary findings suggest that non-psychotic first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients show a subtle disruption of global counterfactual thinking compared with what is normally expected in the general population. Due to the potential impact of such deficits, new treatments targeting CFT improvement might be considered in future management strategies. PMID:27242583

Counterfactual Reasoning in Non-psychotic First-Degree Relatives of People with Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Albacete, Auria; Contreras, Fernando; Bosque, Clara; Gilabert, Ester; Albiach, Ángela; Menchón, José M; Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto; Ayesa-Arriola, Rosa

2016-01-01

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) is a type of conditional reasoning that enables the generation of mental simulations of alternatives to past factual events. Previous research has found this cognitive feature to be disrupted in schizophrenia (Hooker et al., 2000; Contreras et al., 2016). At the same time, the study of cognitive deficits in unaffected relatives of people with schizophrenia has significantly increased, supporting its potential endophenotypic role in this disorder. Using an exploratory approach, the current study examined CFT for the first time in a sample of non-psychotic first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients (N = 43), in comparison with schizophrenia patients (N = 54) and healthy controls (N = 44). A series of tests that assessed the "causal order effect" in CFT and the ability to generate counterfactual thoughts and counterfactually derive inferences using the Counterfactual Inference Test was completed. Associations with variables of basic and social cognition, levels of schizotypy and psychotic-like experiences in addition to clinical and socio-demographic characteristics were also explored. Findings showed that first-degree relatives generated a lower number of counterfactual thoughts than controls, and were more adept at counterfactually deriving inferences, specifically in the scenarios related to regret and to judgments of avoidance in an unusual situation. No other significant results were found. These preliminary findings suggest that non-psychotic first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients show a subtle disruption of global counterfactual thinking compared with what is normally expected in the general population. Due to the potential impact of such deficits, new treatments targeting CFT improvement might be considered in future management strategies.

Symptomatic Remission and Counterfactual Reasoning in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Albacete, Auria; Contreras, Fernando; Bosque, Clara; Gilabert, Ester; Albiach, Ángela; Menchón, José M

2016-01-01

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) is a type of conditional reasoning involving mental representations of alternatives to past factual events that previous preliminary research has suggested to be impaired in schizophrenia. However, despite the potential impact of these deficits on the functional outcome of these patients, studies examining the role of CFT in this disorder are still few in number. The present study aimed to extent previous results by evaluating CFT in the largest sample to date of schizophrenia patients in symptomatic remission and healthy controls. The relationship with symptomatology, illness duration, and sociodemographic characteristics was also explored. Methods: Seventy-eight schizophrenia patients and 84 healthy controls completed a series of tests that examined the generation of counterfactual thoughts, the influence of the "causal order effect," and the ability to counterfactually derive inferences by using de Counterfactual Inference Test. Results: Compared with controls, patients generated fewer counterfactual thoughts when faced with a simulated scenario. This deficit was negatively related to scores on all dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale-PANNS, as well as to longer illness duration. The results also showed that schizophrenia patients deviated significantly from the normative pattern when generating inferences from CFT. Conclusions: These findings reveal CFT impairment to be present in schizophrenia even when patients are in symptomatic remission. However, symptomatology and illness duration may have a negative influence on these patients' ability to generate counterfactual thoughts. The results might support the relevance of targeting CFT in future treatment approaches, although further research is needed to better describe the relationship between CFT and both symptomatology and functional outcome.

Symptomatic Remission and Counterfactual Reasoning in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Albacete, Auria; Contreras, Fernando; Bosque, Clara; Gilabert, Ester; Albiach, Ángela; Menchón, José M.

2017-01-01

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) is a type of conditional reasoning involving mental representations of alternatives to past factual events that previous preliminary research has suggested to be impaired in schizophrenia. However, despite the potential impact of these deficits on the functional outcome of these patients, studies examining the role of CFT in this disorder are still few in number. The present study aimed to extent previous results by evaluating CFT in the largest sample to date of schizophrenia patients in symptomatic remission and healthy controls. The relationship with symptomatology, illness duration, and sociodemographic characteristics was also explored. Methods: Seventy-eight schizophrenia patients and 84 healthy controls completed a series of tests that examined the generation of counterfactual thoughts, the influence of the “causal order effect,” and the ability to counterfactually derive inferences by using de Counterfactual Inference Test. Results: Compared with controls, patients generated fewer counterfactual thoughts when faced with a simulated scenario. This deficit was negatively related to scores on all dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale-PANNS, as well as to longer illness duration. The results also showed that schizophrenia patients deviated significantly from the normative pattern when generating inferences from CFT. Conclusions: These findings reveal CFT impairment to be present in schizophrenia even when patients are in symptomatic remission. However, symptomatology and illness duration may have a negative influence on these patients' ability to generate counterfactual thoughts. The results might support the relevance of targeting CFT in future treatment approaches, although further research is needed to better describe the relationship between CFT and both symptomatology and functional outcome. PMID:28111561

Past and future implications of near-misses and their emotional consequences.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiyuan; Covey, Judith

2014-01-01

The Reflection and Evaluation Model (REM) of comparative thinking predicts that temporal perspective could moderate people's emotional reactions to close counterfactuals following near-misses (Markman & McMullen, 2003). The experiments reported in this paper tested predictions derived from this theory by examining how people's emotional reactions to a near-miss at goal during a football match (Experiment 1) or a close score in a TV game show (Experiment 2) depended on the level of perceived future possibility. In support of the theory it was found that the presence of future possibility enhanced affective assimilation (e.g., if the near-miss occurred at the beginning of the game the players who had nearly scored were hopeful of future success) whereas the absence of future possibility enhanced affective contrast (e.g., if the near-miss occurred at the end of the game the players who had nearly scored were disappointed about missing an opportunity). Furthermore the experiments built upon our theoretical understanding by exploring the mechanisms which produce assimilation and contrast effects. In Experiment 1 we examined the incidence of present-oriented or future-oriented thinking, and in Experiment 2 we examined the mediating role of counterfactual thinking in the observed effect of proximity on emotions by testing whether stronger counterfactuals (measured using counterfactual probability estimates) produce bigger contrast and assimilation effects. While the results of these investigations generally support the REM, they also highlight the necessity to consider other psychological mechanisms (e.g., social comparison), in addition to counterfactual thinking, that might contribute to the emotional consequences of near-miss outcomes.

Counterfactual Plausibility and Comparative Similarity.

PubMed

Stanley, Matthew L; Stewart, Gregory W; Brigard, Felipe De

2017-05-01

Counterfactual thinking involves imagining hypothetical alternatives to reality. Philosopher David Lewis (1973, 1979) argued that people estimate the subjective plausibility that a counterfactual event might have occurred by comparing an imagined possible world in which the counterfactual statement is true against the current, actual world in which the counterfactual statement is false. Accordingly, counterfactuals considered to be true in possible worlds comparatively more similar to ours are judged as more plausible than counterfactuals deemed true in possible worlds comparatively less similar. Although Lewis did not originally develop his notion of comparative similarity to be investigated as a psychological construct, this study builds upon his idea to empirically investigate comparative similarity as a possible psychological strategy for evaluating the perceived plausibility of counterfactual events. More specifically, we evaluate judgments of comparative similarity between episodic memories and episodic counterfactual events as a factor influencing people's judgments of plausibility in counterfactual simulations, and we also compare it against other factors thought to influence judgments of counterfactual plausibility, such as ease of simulation and prior simulation. Our results suggest that the greater the perceived similarity between the original memory and the episodic counterfactual event, the greater the perceived plausibility that the counterfactual event might have occurred. While similarity between actual and counterfactual events, ease of imagining, and prior simulation of the counterfactual event were all significantly related to counterfactual plausibility, comparative similarity best captured the variance in ratings of counterfactual plausibility. Implications for existing theories on the determinants of counterfactual plausibility are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Neural activity associated with repetitive simulation of episodic counterfactual thoughts.

PubMed

De Brigard, Felipe; Parikh, Natasha; Stewart, Gregory W; Szpunar, Karl K; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-11-01

When people revisit past autobiographical events they often imagine alternative ways in which such events could have occurred. Often these episodic counterfactual thoughts (eCFT) are momentary and fleeting, but sometimes they are simulated frequently and repeatedly. However, little is known about the neural differences between frequently versus infrequently repeated eCFT. The current study explores this issue. In a three-session study, participants were asked to simulate alternative ways positive, negative, and neutral autobiographical memories could have occurred. Half of these eCFT were repeatedly re-simulated while the other half were not. Immediately after, participants were asked to simulate all these eCFT again while undergoing fMRI. A partial least squares analysis on the resultant fMRI data revealed that eCFT that were not frequently repeated preferentially engaged brain regions including middle (BA 21) and superior temporal gyri (BA 38/39), middle (BA 11) and superior frontal gyri (BA 9), and hippocampus. By contrast, frequently repeated eCFT preferentially engaged regions including medial frontal gyri (BA 10), anterior cingulate cortex, insula, and inferior parietal lobule (BA 40). Direct contrasts for each type of eCFT were also conducted. The results of these analyses suggest differential contributions of regions traditionally associated with eCFT, such as BA 10, anterior cingulate cortex, and hippocampus, as a function of kind of eCFT and frequency of repetition. Consequences for future research on eCFT and rumination are considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"If only I had done better": Perfectionism and the functionality of counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Sirois, Fuschia M; Monforton, Jennifer; Simpson, Melissa

2010-12-01

Although a recent update on the functional theory of counterfactual thinking suggests that counterfactuals are important for behavior regulation, there is some evidence that counterfactuals may not be functional for everyone. Two studies found differences between maladaptive and high personal standards perfectionism in the functionality of counterfactuals and variables relevant to behavior regulation. Maladaptive but not personal standards perfectionism predicted making more upward counterfactuals after recalling a negative event and was linked to a variety of negative markers of achievement. Maladaptive perfectionism was associated with making controllable, subtractive, and less specific counterfactuals. High personal standards perfectionism moderated the effects of maladaptive perfectionism on counterfactual controllability. Generating counterfactuals increased motivation for personal standards perfectionists relative to a noncounterfactual control group but had no effect on motivation for maladaptive perfectionists. The findings suggest a continuum of counterfactual functionality for perfectionists and highlight the importance of considering counterfactual specificity and structure.

The logic of counterfactual analysis in case-study explanation.

PubMed

Mahoney, James; Barrenechea, Rodrigo

2017-12-19

In this paper, we develop a set-theoretic and possible worlds approach to counterfactual analysis in case-study explanation. Using this approach, we first consider four kinds of counterfactuals: necessary condition counterfactuals, SUIN condition counterfactuals, sufficient condition counterfactuals, and INUS condition counterfactuals. We explore the distinctive causal claims entailed in each, and conclude that necessary condition and SUIN condition counterfactuals are the most useful types for hypothesis assessment in case-study research. We then turn attention to the development of a rigorous understanding of the 'minimal-rewrite' rule, linking this rule to insights from set theory about the relative importance of necessary conditions. We show why, logically speaking, a comparative analysis of two necessary condition counterfactuals will tend to favour small events and contingent happenings. A third section then presents new tools for specifying the level of generality of the events in a counterfactual. We show why and how the goals of formulating empirically important versus empirically plausible counterfactuals stand in tension with one another. Finally, we use our framework to link counterfactual analysis to causal sequences, which in turn provides advantages for conducting counterfactual projections. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

Imagining What Could Have Happened: Types and Vividness of Counterfactual Thoughts and the Relationship With Post-traumatic Stress Reactions.

PubMed

Blix, Ines; Kanten, Alf Børre; Birkeland, Marianne Skogbrott; Thoresen, Siri

2018-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that counterfactual thinking after traumatic events is associated with post-traumatic stress reactions. In this study we explored frequency of upward and downward counterfactuals in trauma-exposed individuals, and how trauma-related counterfactuals were represented in terms of vividness. We examined the relationships between vividness and frequency of counterfactual thoughts and post-traumatic stress reactions in two groups who had experienced different types of traumatic exposure, namely survivors and bereaved from the fire on the ferry Scandinavian Star in 1990. Even after 26 years, both survivors and bereaved reported that they currently entertained thoughts about what could have happened during the fire on Scandinavian Star. Survivors reported more downward counterfactuals than the bereaved, whereas the bereaved reported more upward counterfactuals than the survivors did. Vividness of counterfactual thoughts, as well as reported frequency of upward and downward counterfactuals, were associated with post-traumatic stress reactions. Our results suggest that both upward and downward counterfactuals can be harmful, and that vivid counterfactuals about a traumatic event might play a similar role in post-traumatic stress as trauma memories. Therefore, traumatized individuals who entertain counterfactual thoughts may benefit from interventions that target these thoughts specifically.

Is Understanding Regret Dependent on Developments in Counterfactual Thinking?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beck, Sarah R.; Crilly, Maria

2009-01-01

Children's understanding of counterfactual emotions such as regret and relief develops relatively late compared to their ability to imagine counterfactual worlds. We tested whether a late development in counterfactual thinking: understanding counterfactuals as possibilities, underpinned children's understanding of regret. Thirty 5- and 6-year-olds…

Counterfactual Reasoning Deficits in Schizophrenia Patients.

PubMed

Contreras, Fernando; Albacete, Auria; Castellví, Pere; Caño, Agnès; Benejam, Bessy; Menchón, José Manuel

2016-01-01

Counterfactual thinking is a specific type of conditional reasoning that enables the generation of mental simulations of alternatives to past factual events. Although it has been broadly studied in the general population, research on schizophrenia is still scarce. The aim of the current study was to further examine counterfactual reasoning in this illness. Forty schizophrenia patients and 40 controls completed a series of tests that assessed the influence of the "causal order effect" on counterfactual thinking, and the ability to generate counterfactual thoughts and counterfactually derive inferences from a hypothetical situation. Socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, as well as neurocognitive variables, were also examined. Compared to controls, the schizophrenia patients generated fewer counterfactual thoughts when faced with a simulated scenario. The pattern of response when assessing the causality effect of the order was also different between the groups, with the patients being more frequently unable to attribute any ordering of events than the control subjects. Additionally, the schizophrenia patients showed more difficulties when deriving normative counterfactual inferences from hypothetical social situations. None of the counterfactual reasoning measures was associated to any of the cognitive functions or clinical and socio-demographic variables assessed. A global impairment in counterfactual thinking characterizes schizophrenia patients. Because of the potential impact of such deficits on psychosocial functioning, targeting counterfactual reasoning for improvement might be considered in future treatment approaches.

Self-handicapping, excuse making, and counterfactual thinking: consequences for self-esteem and future motivation.

PubMed

McCrea, Sean M

2008-08-01

Researchers interested in counterfactual thinking have often found that upward counterfactual thoughts lead to increased motivation to improve in the future, although at the cost of increased negative affect. The present studies suggest that because upward counterfactual thoughts indicate reasons for a poor performance, they can also serve as excuses. In this case, upward counterfactual thoughts should result in more positive self-esteem and reduced future motivation. Five studies demonstrated these effects in the context of self-handicapping. First, upward counterfactual thinking was increased in the presence of a self-handicap. Second, upward counterfactual thoughts indicating the presence of a self-handicap protected self-esteem following failure. Finally, upward counterfactual thoughts that protect self-esteem reduced preparation for a subsequent performance as well as performance itself. These findings suggest that the consequences of upward counterfactuals for affect and motivation are moderated by the goals of the individual as well as the content of the thoughts. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

On the counterfactual nature of envy: "It could have been me".

PubMed

van de Ven, Niels; Zeelenberg, Marcel

2015-01-01

We examined whether counterfactual thinking influences the experience of envy. Counterfactual thinking refers to comparing the situation as it is to what it could have been, and these thought processes have been shown to lead to a variety of emotions. We predicted that for envy the counterfactual thought "it could have been me" would be important. In four studies we found a clear link between such counterfactual thoughts and the intensity of envy. Furthermore, Studies 3 and 4 revealed that a manipulation known to affect the extent of counterfactual thinking (the perception of being close to obtaining the desired outcome oneself), had an effect on the intensity of envy via counterfactual thoughts. This relationship between counterfactual thinking and the experience of envy allows for new predictions concerning situations under which envy is likely be more intense.

Effect of Motivational Goals on the Causal Realism of Counterfactual Thoughts.

PubMed

Kokkinaki, Flora; Sevdalis, Nick

2015-01-01

Counterfactual thinking refers to mental comparisons of reality with imagined alternatives of it. The "functional view" of counterfactual thinking suggests that upward counterfactuals (which improve on reality) serve a preparative function and downward counterfactuals (which worsen reality) serve an affective function. This view presumes that people generate counterfactuals that focus on cause(s) that have actually produced the negative outcomes. The two experiments reported here demonstrate that people spontaneously manipulate the causal content of their counterfactuals, depending on their motivational goals. Specifically, it was found that when people aim to feel better about a poor decision they generate less realistic (upward) counterfactuals, experience less negative affect and tend to attribute the outcome to less controllable causes than when they aim to learn from their experience. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Applied Counterfactual Reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrickson, Noel

This chapter addresses two goals: The development of a structured method to aid intelligence and security analysts in assessing counterfactuals, and forming a structured method to educate (future) analysts in counterfactual reasoning. In order to pursue these objectives, I offer here an analysis of the purposes, problems, parts, and principles of applied counterfactual reasoning. In particular, the ways in which antecedent scenarios are selected and the ways in which scenarios are developed constitute essential (albeit often neglected) aspects of counterfactual reasoning. Both must be addressed to apply counterfactual reasoning effectively. Naturally, further issues remain, but these should serve as a useful point of departure. They are the beginning of a path to more rigorous and relevant counterfactual reasoning in intelligence analysis and counterterrorism.

Contextual modulation of primary visual cortex by auditory signals.

PubMed

Petro, L S; Paton, A T; Muckli, L

2017-02-19

Early visual cortex receives non-feedforward input from lateral and top-down connections (Muckli & Petro 2013 Curr. Opin. Neurobiol. 23, 195-201. (doi:10.1016/j.conb.2013.01.020)), including long-range projections from auditory areas. Early visual cortex can code for high-level auditory information, with neural patterns representing natural sound stimulation (Vetter et al. 2014 Curr. Biol. 24, 1256-1262. (doi:10.1016/j.cub.2014.04.020)). We discuss a number of questions arising from these findings. What is the adaptive function of bimodal representations in visual cortex? What type of information projects from auditory to visual cortex? What are the anatomical constraints of auditory information in V1, for example, periphery versus fovea, superficial versus deep cortical layers? Is there a putative neural mechanism we can infer from human neuroimaging data and recent theoretical accounts of cortex? We also present data showing we can read out high-level auditory information from the activation patterns of early visual cortex even when visual cortex receives simple visual stimulation, suggesting independent channels for visual and auditory signals in V1. We speculate which cellular mechanisms allow V1 to be contextually modulated by auditory input to facilitate perception, cognition and behaviour. Beyond cortical feedback that facilitates perception, we argue that there is also feedback serving counterfactual processing during imagery, dreaming and mind wandering, which is not relevant for immediate perception but for behaviour and cognition over a longer time frame.This article is part of the themed issue 'Auditory and visual scene analysis'. © 2017 The Authors.

Contextual modulation of primary visual cortex by auditory signals

PubMed Central

Paton, A. T.

2017-01-01

Early visual cortex receives non-feedforward input from lateral and top-down connections (Muckli & Petro 2013 Curr. Opin. Neurobiol. 23, 195–201. (doi:10.1016/j.conb.2013.01.020)), including long-range projections from auditory areas. Early visual cortex can code for high-level auditory information, with neural patterns representing natural sound stimulation (Vetter et al. 2014 Curr. Biol. 24, 1256–1262. (doi:10.1016/j.cub.2014.04.020)). We discuss a number of questions arising from these findings. What is the adaptive function of bimodal representations in visual cortex? What type of information projects from auditory to visual cortex? What are the anatomical constraints of auditory information in V1, for example, periphery versus fovea, superficial versus deep cortical layers? Is there a putative neural mechanism we can infer from human neuroimaging data and recent theoretical accounts of cortex? We also present data showing we can read out high-level auditory information from the activation patterns of early visual cortex even when visual cortex receives simple visual stimulation, suggesting independent channels for visual and auditory signals in V1. We speculate which cellular mechanisms allow V1 to be contextually modulated by auditory input to facilitate perception, cognition and behaviour. Beyond cortical feedback that facilitates perception, we argue that there is also feedback serving counterfactual processing during imagery, dreaming and mind wandering, which is not relevant for immediate perception but for behaviour and cognition over a longer time frame. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Auditory and visual scene analysis’. PMID:28044015

Neural Substrates of Counterfactual Emotions After Risky Decisions in Late Adolescents and Young Adults.

PubMed

Rodrigo, María José; Padrón, Iván; de Vega, Manuel; Ferstl, Evelyn

2018-03-01

Adolescents' neural substrates of emotional reactions to the consequences of risky decisions are poorly understood. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging study, 30 late adolescents and 30 young adults made risky and neutral decisions in social scenarios and received valenced outcomes. Negative outcomes in risky decisions eliciting regret, as compared with negative outcomes in neutral decisions eliciting disappointment, activated executive control (orbitofrontal cortex) and self-relevance regions (middle temporal gyrus [MTG], posterior cingulate cortex, and precuneus) for both age groups. Young adults showed more activation than adolescents in regret and disappointment as compared with relief and elation conditions in the avoidance (insula), action monitoring (inferior frontal gyrus, pre-SMA, and caudate), and social-cognition regions (superior temporal sulcus and MTG). These late socio-emotional developments may pave the way for more adaptive decision-making behavior in social contexts. © 2018 Society for Research on Adolescence.

Counterfactual Reasoning Deficits in Schizophrenia Patients

PubMed Central

Castellví, Pere; Caño, Agnès; Benejam, Bessy

2016-01-01

Background Counterfactual thinking is a specific type of conditional reasoning that enables the generation of mental simulations of alternatives to past factual events. Although it has been broadly studied in the general population, research on schizophrenia is still scarce. The aim of the current study was to further examine counterfactual reasoning in this illness. Methods Forty schizophrenia patients and 40 controls completed a series of tests that assessed the influence of the “causal order effect” on counterfactual thinking, and the ability to generate counterfactual thoughts and counterfactually derive inferences from a hypothetical situation. Socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, as well as neurocognitive variables, were also examined. Results Compared to controls, the schizophrenia patients generated fewer counterfactual thoughts when faced with a simulated scenario. The pattern of response when assessing the causality effect of the order was also different between the groups, with the patients being more frequently unable to attribute any ordering of events than the control subjects. Additionally, the schizophrenia patients showed more difficulties when deriving normative counterfactual inferences from hypothetical social situations. None of the counterfactual reasoning measures was associated to any of the cognitive functions or clinical and socio-demographic variables assessed. Conclusions A global impairment in counterfactual thinking characterizes schizophrenia patients. Because of the potential impact of such deficits on psychosocial functioning, targeting counterfactual reasoning for improvement might be considered in future treatment approaches. PMID:26828931

Almost thinking counterfactually: children's understanding of close counterfactuals.

PubMed

Beck, Sarah R; Guthrie, Carlie

2011-01-01

Saying something "almost happened" indicates that one is considering a close counterfactual world. Previous evidence suggested that children start to consider these close counterfactuals at around 2 years of age (P. L. Harris, 1997), substantially earlier than they pass other tests of counterfactual thinking. However, this success appears to result from false positives. In Experiment 1 (N = 41), 3- and 4-year-olds could identify a character who almost completed an action when the comparison did not complete it. However, in Experiments 1 and 2 (N = 98), children performed poorly when the comparison character completed the action. In Experiment 3 (N = 28), 5- and 6-year-olds consistently passed the task, indicating that they made appropriate counterfactual interpretations of the "almost" statements. This understanding of close counterfactuals proved more difficult than standard counterfactuals. © 2011 The Authors. Child Development © 2011 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

I could have done otherwise: Availability of counterfactual comparisons informs the sense of agency.

PubMed

Kulakova, Eugenia; Khalighinejad, Nima; Haggard, Patrick

2017-03-01

Personal control and agency are closely associated with the counterfactual notion that a person could have done otherwise (CDO). In both philosophy and law, this counterfactual evaluation determines responsibility and punishment, yet little is known about its influence on agents' experience during action. We used a risky decision-making task to study how counterfactual evaluations influenced participants' sense of agency. Two factors were manipulated independently: the presence/absence of counterfactual comparisons between actions and the presence/absence of counterfactual comparisons between outcomes of these actions. Perceived agency was highest when both counterfactual comparisons were available. Interestingly, this pattern persisted even when counterfactual information was only revealed after action, suggesting a purely reconstructive evaluation effect. These findings allow a more precise phrasing of the CDO element of personal agency: a person feels most control when she could have performed another action, thereby obtaining another outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Company, country, connections: counterfactual origins increase organizational commitment, patriotism, and social investment.

PubMed

Ersner-Hershfield, Hal; Galinsky, Adam D; Kray, Laura J; King, Brayden G

2010-10-01

Four studies examined the relationship between counterfactual origins--thoughts about how the beginning of organizations, countries, and social connections might have turned out differently--and increased feelings of commitment to those institutions and connections. Study 1 found that counterfactually reflecting on the origins of one's country increases patriotism. Study 2 extended this finding to organizational commitment and examined the mediating role of poignancy. Study 3 found that counterfactual reflection boosts organizational commitment even beyond the effects of other commitment-enhancing appeals and that perceptions of fate mediate the positive effect of counterfactual origins on commitment. Finally, Study 4 temporally separated the counterfactual manipulation from a behavioral measure of commitment and found that counterfactual reflection predicted whether participants e-mailed social contacts 2 weeks later. The robust relationship between counterfactual origins and commitment was found across a wide range of companies and countries, with undergraduates and M.B.A. students, and for attitudes and behaviors.

Comment on "Direct counterfactual transmission of a quantum state"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaidman, L.

2016-06-01

The protocol for counterfactual transmission of a qubit [Z.-H. Li et al., Phys. Rev. A 92, 052315 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevA.92.052315] relies on the counterfactuality of transmissions of bit 1 and of bit 0. Since counterfactuality of transmission of bit 0 is not established, the claim of counterfactuality of transmission of a quantum state is not established too.

Associations among false belief understanding, counterfactual reasoning, and executive function.

PubMed

Guajardo, Nicole R; Parker, Jessica; Turley-Ames, Kandi

2009-09-01

The primary purposes of the present study were to clarify previous work on the association between counterfactual thinking and false belief performance to determine (1) whether these two variables are related and (2) if so, whether executive function skills mediate the relationship. A total of 92 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds completed false belief, counterfactual, working memory, representational flexibility, and language measures. Counterfactual reasoning accounted for limited unique variance in false belief. Both working memory and representational flexibility partially mediated the relationship between counterfactual and false belief. Children, like adults, also generated various types of counterfactual statements to differing degrees. Results demonstrated the importance of language and executive function for both counterfactual and false belief. Implications are discussed.

Emotional intensity in episodic autobiographical memory and counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Stanley, Matthew L; Parikh, Natasha; Stewart, Gregory W; De Brigard, Felipe

2017-02-01

Episodic counterfactual thoughts-imagined alternative ways in which personal past events might have occurred-are frequently accompanied by intense emotions. Here, participants recollected positive and negative autobiographical memories and then generated better and worse episodic counterfactual events from those memories. Our results suggest that the projected emotional intensity during the simulated remembered/imagined event is significantly higher than but typically positively related to the emotional intensity while remembering/imagining the event. Furthermore, repeatedly simulating counterfactual events heightened the emotional intensity felt while simulating the counterfactual event. Finally, for both the emotional intensity accompanying the experience of remembering/imagining and the projected emotional intensity during the simulated remembered/imagined event, the emotional intensity of negative memories was greater than the emotional intensity of upward counterfactuals generated from them but lower than the emotional intensity of downward counterfactuals generated from them. These findings are discussed in relation to clinical work and functional theories of counterfactual thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Counterfactual Thinking in the History of Psychology Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carroll, David W.

2013-01-01

History of psychology students wrote essays about historical figures and counterfactual events. A linguistic analysis of the essays revealed that counterfactual assignments included more auxiliary verbs and more references to tentativeness and the future. More important, scores on the counterfactual assignments but not the historical figure…

Preschoolers' Generation of Different Types of Counterfactual Statements and Theory of Mind Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guajardo, Nicole R.; Turley-Ames, Kandi Jo

2004-01-01

Two studies examined associations between theory of mind performance and counterfactual thinking using both antecedent and consequent counterfactual tasks. Moreover, the studies examined children's abilities to generate different types of counterfactual statements in terms of direction and structure. Participants were 3-, 4-, and 5-year-old…

Discourse Updating after Reading a Counterfactual Event

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Vega, Manuel; Urrutia, Mabel

2012-01-01

This paper explores the temporal course of discourse updating after reading counterfactual events. To test the accessibility to discourse information, readers were asked to identify probes related to initial events in the text, previous to the counterfactual, or probes related to the critical counterfactual events. Experiment 1 showed that 500 ms…

Counterfactual Reasoning: From Childhood to Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rafetseder, Eva; Schwitalla, Maria; Perner, Josef

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to describe the developmental progression of counterfactual reasoning from childhood to adulthood. In contrast to the traditional view, it was recently reported by Rafetseder and colleagues that even a majority of 6-year-old children do not engage in counterfactual reasoning when asked counterfactual questions…

Trojan horse attacks on counterfactual quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiuqing; Wei, Kejin; Ma, Haiqiang; Sun, Shihai; Du, Yungang; Wu, Lingan

2016-04-01

There has been much interest in ;counterfactual quantum cryptography; (T.-G. Noh, 2009 [10]). It seems that the counterfactual quantum key distribution protocol without any photon carrier through the quantum channel provides practical security advantages. However, we show that it is easy to break counterfactual quantum key distribution systems in practical situations. We introduce the two types of Trojan horse attacks that are available for the two-way protocol and become possible for practical counterfactual systems with our eavesdropping schemes.

Thinking within the box: The relational processing style elicited by counterfactual mind-sets.

PubMed

Kray, Laura J; Galinsky, Adam D; Wong, Elaine M

2006-07-01

By comparing reality to what might have been, counterfactuals promote a relational processing style characterized by a tendency to consider relationships and associations among a set of stimuli. As such, counterfactual mind-sets were expected to improve performance on tasks involving the consideration of relationships and associations but to impair performance on tasks requiring novel ideas that are uninfluenced by salient associations. The authors conducted several experiments to test this hypothesis. In Experiments 1a and 1b, the authors determined that counterfactual mind-sets increase mental states and preferences for thinking styles consistent with relational thought. Experiment 2 demonstrated a facilitative effect of counterfactual mind-sets on an analytic task involving logical relationships; Experiments 3 and 4 demonstrated that counterfactual mind-sets structure thought and imagination around salient associations and therefore impaired performance on creative generation tasks. In Experiment 5, the authors demonstrated that the detrimental effect of counterfactual mind-sets is limited to creative tasks involving novel idea generation; in a creative association task involving the consideration of relationships between task stimuli, counterfactual mind-sets improved performance. Copyright 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Imagining Counterfactual Worlds in Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Black, Jo; Williams, David; Ferguson, Heather J

2018-02-01

Two experiments are presented that explore online counterfactual processing in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using eye-tracking. Participants' eye movements were tracked while they read factual and counterfactual sentences in an anomaly detection task. In Experiment 1, the sentences depicted everyday counterfactual situations (e.g., If Joanne had remembered her umbrella, her hair would have been dry/wet when she arrived home). Sentences in Experiment 2 depicted counterfactual versions of real world events (e.g., If the Titanic had not hit an iceberg, it would have survived/sunk along with all the passengers). Results from both experiments suggest that counterfactual understanding is undiminished in adults with ASD. In fact, participants with ASD were faster than Typically Developing (TD) participants to detect anomalies within realistic, discourse-based counterfactuals (Experiment 1). Detection was comparable for TD and ASD groups when understanding could be grounded in knowledge about reality (Experiment 2), though the 2 groups used subtly different strategies for responding to and recovering from counterfactual inconsistent words. These data argue against general difficulties in global coherence and complex integration in ASD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Private database queries based on counterfactual quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jia-Li; Guo, Fen-Zhuo; Gao, Fei; Liu, Bin; Wen, Qiao-Yan

2013-08-01

Based on the fundamental concept of quantum counterfactuality, we propose a protocol to achieve quantum private database queries, which is a theoretical study of how counterfactuality can be employed beyond counterfactual quantum key distribution (QKD). By adding crucial detecting apparatus to the device of QKD, the privacy of both the distrustful user and the database owner can be guaranteed. Furthermore, the proposed private-database-query protocol makes full use of the low efficiency in the counterfactual QKD, and by adjusting the relevant parameters, the protocol obtains excellent flexibility and extensibility.

Counterfactual quantum certificate authorization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenoy H., Akshata; Srikanth, R.; Srinivas, T.

2014-05-01

We present a multipartite protocol in a counterfactual paradigm. In counterfactual quantum cryptography, secure information is transmitted between two spatially separated parties even when there is no physical travel of particles transferring the information between them. We propose here a tripartite counterfactual quantum protocol for the task of certificate authorization. Here a trusted third party, Alice, authenticates an entity Bob (e.g., a bank) that a client Charlie wishes to securely transact with. The protocol is counterfactual with respect to either Bob or Charlie. We prove its security against a general incoherent attack, where Eve attacks single particles.

Pragmatic skills predict online counterfactual comprehension: Evidence from the N400.

PubMed

Kulakova, Eugenia; Nieuwland, Mante S

2016-10-01

Counterfactual thought allows people to consider alternative worlds they know to be false. Communicating these thoughts through language poses a social-communicative challenge because listeners typically expect a speaker to produce true utterances, but counterfactuals per definition convey information that is false. Listeners must therefore incorporate overt linguistic cues (subjunctive mood, such as in If I loved you then) in a rapid way to infer the intended counterfactual meaning. The present EEG study focused on the comprehension of such counterfactual antecedents and investigated if pragmatic ability-the ability to apply knowledge of the social-communicative use of language in daily life-predicts the online generation of counterfactual worlds. This yielded two novel findings: (1) Words that are consistent with factual knowledge incur a semantic processing cost, as reflected in larger N400 amplitude, in counterfactual antecedents compared to hypothetical antecedents (If sweets were/are made of sugar). We take this to suggest that counterfactuality is quickly incorporated during language comprehension and reduces online expectations based on factual knowledge. (2) Individual scores on the Autism Quotient Communication subscale modulated this effect, suggesting that individuals who are better at understanding the communicative intentions of other people are more likely to reduce knowledge-based expectations in counterfactuals. These results are the first demonstration of the real-time pragmatic processes involved in creating possible worlds.

Counterfactual cognitive deficit in persons with Parkinson's disease

PubMed Central

McNamara, P; Durso, R; Brown, A; Lynch, A

2003-01-01

Background: Counterfactuals are mental representations of alternatives to past events. Recent research has shown them to be important for other cognitive processes, such as planning, causal reasoning, problem solving, and decision making—all processes independently linked to the frontal lobes. Objective: To test the hypothesis that counterfactual thinking is impaired in some patients with Parkinson's disease and is linked to frontal dysfunction in these patients. Methods. Measures of counterfactual processing and frontal lobe functioning were administered to 24 persons with Parkinson's disease and 15 age matched healthy controls. Results. Patients with Parkinson's disease spontaneously generated significantly fewer counterfactuals than controls despite showing no differences from controls on a semantic fluency test; they also performed at chance levels on a counterfactual inference test, while age matched controls performed above chance levels on this test. Performance on both the counterfactual generation and inference tests correlated significantly with performance on two tests traditionally linked to frontal lobe functioning (Stroop colour–word interference and Tower of London planning tasks) and one test of pragmatic social communication skills. Conclusions: Counterfactual thinking is impaired in Parkinson's disease. This impairment may be related to frontal lobe dysfunction. PMID:12876235

Counterfactual quantum computation through quantum interrogation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosten, Onur; Rakher, Matthew T.; Barreiro, Julio T.; Peters, Nicholas A.; Kwiat, Paul G.

2006-02-01

The logic underlying the coherent nature of quantum information processing often deviates from intuitive reasoning, leading to surprising effects. Counterfactual computation constitutes a striking example: the potential outcome of a quantum computation can be inferred, even if the computer is not run. Relying on similar arguments to interaction-free measurements (or quantum interrogation), counterfactual computation is accomplished by putting the computer in a superposition of `running' and `not running' states, and then interfering the two histories. Conditional on the as-yet-unknown outcome of the computation, it is sometimes possible to counterfactually infer information about the solution. Here we demonstrate counterfactual computation, implementing Grover's search algorithm with an all-optical approach. It was believed that the overall probability of such counterfactual inference is intrinsically limited, so that it could not perform better on average than random guesses. However, using a novel `chained' version of the quantum Zeno effect, we show how to boost the counterfactual inference probability to unity, thereby beating the random guessing limit. Our methods are general and apply to any physical system, as illustrated by a discussion of trapped-ion systems. Finally, we briefly show that, in certain circumstances, counterfactual computation can eliminate errors induced by decoherence.

Influence of outcome valence in the subjective experience of episodic past, future, and counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

De Brigard, Felipe; Giovanello, Kelly S

2012-09-01

Recent findings suggest that our capacity to imagine the future depends on our capacity to remember the past. However, the extent to which episodic memory is involved in our capacity to think about what could have happened in our past, yet did not occur (i.e., episodic counterfactual thinking), remains largely unexplored. The current experiments investigate the phenomenological characteristics and the influence of outcome valence on the experience of past, future and counterfactual thoughts. Participants were asked to mentally simulate past, future, and counterfactual events with positive or negative outcomes. Features of their subjective experiences during each type of simulation were measured using questionnaires and autobiographical interviews. The results suggest that clarity and vividness were higher for past than future and counterfactual simulations. Additionally, emotional intensity was lower for counterfactual simulations than past and future simulations. Finally, outcome valence influenced participants' judgment of probability for future and counterfactual simulations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relationship between societal change and rising support for gender egalitarianism among men and women: Results from counterfactual analyses in the Netherlands, 1979-2012.

PubMed

Thijs, Paula; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Scheepers, Peer

2017-11-01

This study examines the relationship between important social, cultural, economic, and demographic changes and the rise of support for gender egalitarianism within the Dutch population between 1979 and 2012. Cohort replacement, educational expansion, secularization, and the feminization of the labor force are important processes that have taken place in western societies in ways that may have fostered support for gender egalitarianism. Using unique data from 16 repeated cross-sectional surveys in the Netherlands, we estimate age-period-cohort regression models, and the outcomes are subsequently applied in counterfactual simulation designs. Our results show that the social, cultural, economic, and demographic changes explain only a small part of the modest rise in support for gender egalitarianism for men, while they provide a much better explanation of the stronger rise among women. Especially the replacement of older female cohorts by younger ones seems to have propelled support for gender egalitarianism among women throughout the years. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Others' Regret: A fMRI Study

PubMed Central

Canessa, Nicola; Motterlini, Matteo; Di Dio, Cinzia; Perani, Daniela; Scifo, Paola; Cappa, Stefano F.; Rizzolatti, Giacomo

2009-01-01

Previous studies showed that the understanding of others' basic emotional experiences is based on a “resonant” mechanism, i.e., on the reactivation, in the observer's brain, of the cerebral areas associated with those experiences. The present study aimed to investigate whether the same neural mechanism is activated both when experiencing and attending complex, cognitively-generated, emotions. A gambling task and functional-Magnetic-Resonance-Imaging (fMRI) were used to test this hypothesis using regret, the negative cognitively-based emotion resulting from an unfavorable counterfactual comparison between the outcomes of chosen and discarded options. Do the same brain structures that mediate the experience of regret become active in the observation of situations eliciting regret in another individual? Here we show that observing the regretful outcomes of someone else's choices activates the same regions that are activated during a first-person experience of regret, i.e. the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex and hippocampus. These results extend the possible role of a mirror-like mechanism beyond basic emotions. PMID:19826471

Adaptive constructive processes and memory accuracy: Consequences of counterfactual simulations in young and older adults

PubMed Central

Gerlach, Kathy D.; Dornblaser, David W.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2013-01-01

People frequently engage in counterfactual thinking: mental simulations of alternative outcomes to past events. Like simulations of future events, counterfactual simulations serve adaptive functions. However, future simulation can also result in various kinds of distortions and has thus been characterized as an adaptive constructive process. Here we approach counterfactual thinking as such and examine whether it can distort memory for actual events. In Experiments 1a/b, young and older adults imagined themselves experiencing different scenarios. Participants then imagined the same scenario again, engaged in no further simulation of a scenario, or imagined a counterfactual outcome. On a subsequent recognition test, participants were more likely to make false alarms to counterfactual lures than novel scenarios. Older adults were more prone to these memory errors than younger adults. In Experiment 2, younger and older participants selected and performed different actions, then recalled performing some of those actions, imagined performing alternative actions to some of the selected actions, and did not imagine others. Participants, especially older adults, were more likely to falsely remember counterfactual actions than novel actions as previously performed. The findings suggest that counterfactual thinking can cause source confusion based on internally generated misinformation, consistent with its characterization as an adaptive constructive process. PMID:23560477

Adaptive constructive processes and memory accuracy: consequences of counterfactual simulations in young and older adults.

PubMed

Gerlach, Kathy D; Dornblaser, David W; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

People frequently engage in counterfactual thinking: mental simulations of alternative outcomes to past events. Like simulations of future events, counterfactual simulations serve adaptive functions. However, future simulation can also result in various kinds of distortions and has thus been characterised as an adaptive constructive process. Here we approach counterfactual thinking as such and examine whether it can distort memory for actual events. In Experiments 1a/b young and older adults imagined themselves experiencing different scenarios. Participants then imagined the same scenario again, engaged in no further simulation of a scenario, or imagined a counterfactual outcome. On a subsequent recognition test participants were more likely to make false alarms to counterfactual lures than novel scenarios. Older adults were more prone to these memory errors than younger adults. In Experiment 2 younger and older participants selected and performed different actions, then recalled performing some of those actions, imagined performing alternative actions to some of the selected actions, and did not imagine others. Participants, especially older adults, were more likely to falsely remember counterfactual actions than novel actions as previously performed. The findings suggest that counterfactual thinking can cause source confusion based on internally generated misinformation, consistent with its characterisation as an adaptive constructive process.

Counterfactual attack on counterfactual quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng; Wnang, Jian; Tang, Chao Jing

2012-05-01

It is interesting that counterfactual quantum cryptography protocols allow two remotely separated parties to share a secret key without transmitting any signal particles. Generally, these protocols, expected to provide security advantages, base their security on a translated no-cloning theorem. Therefore, they potentially exhibit unconditional security in theory. In this letter, we propose a new Trojan horse attack, by which an eavesdropper Eve can gain full information about the key without being noticed, to real implementations of a counterfactual quantum cryptography system. Most importantly, the presented attack is available even if the system has negligible imperfections. Therefore, it shows that the present realization of counterfactual quantum key distribution is vulnerable.

Counterfactuality of ‘counterfactual’ communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaidman, L.

2015-11-01

The counterfactuality of the recently proposed protocols for direct quantum communication is analyzed. It is argued that the protocols can be counterfactual only for one value of the transmitted bit. The protocols achieve a reduced probability of detection of the particle in the transmission channel by increasing the number of paths in the channel. However, this probability is not lower than the probability of detecting a particle actually passing through such a multi-path channel, which was found to be surprisingly small. The relation between security and counterfactuality of the protocols is discussed. An analysis of counterfactuality of the protocols in the framework of the Bohmian interpretation is performed.

Effects of message framing in anti-binge drinking PSAs: the moderating role of counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Baek, Tae Hyun; Shen, Lijiang; Reid, Leonard N

2013-01-01

This experiment examined the interaction effects of message framing and counterfactual thinking on attitudes toward binge drinking and behavioral intentions. Data from a 2 (message framing: gain vs. loss) × 2 (counterfactual thinking priming: additive vs. subtractive) between-subjects factorial design showed that a gain-framed message resulted in lower binge drinking intentions than did a loss-framed message after subjects engaged in additive counterfactual thinking. The effects of a loss-framed message on binge drinking intentions occurred when subtractive counterfactual thinking was induced. Theoretical and practical implications for anti-binge drinking public service announcements are discussed.

Depressive states amplify both upward and downward counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Feng, Xue; Gu, Ruolei; Liang, Fucheng; Broster, Lucas S; Liu, Yunzhe; Zhang, Dandan; Luo, Yue-jia

2015-08-01

Depression has been linked to counterfactual thinking in many behavioral studies, but the direction of this effect remains disputed. In the current study, the relationship between depression and counterfactual thinking was examined using the event-related potential (ERP) technique. In a binary choice gambling task, outcome feedback of the chosen option and that of the alternative option were both provided, so as to elicit the process of counterfactual comparison. By investigating ERP signals in response to outcome presentation, we discovered that when the fictive outcome was better or worse than the factual outcome, the amplitude of the P3 component was positively correlated with individual levels of depression, but not levels of anxiety. These results indicate that depression strengthens both upward counterfactual thinking and downward counterfactual thinking. The implication of this finding to clinical research is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

It Could Have Been True: How Counterfactual Thoughts Reduce Condemnation of Falsehoods and Increase Political Polarization.

PubMed

Effron, Daniel A

2018-05-01

This research demonstrates how counterfactual thoughts can lead people to excuse others for telling falsehoods. When a falsehood aligned with participants' political preferences, reflecting on how it could have been true led them to judge it as less unethical to tell, which in turn led them to judge a politician who told it as having a more moral character and deserving less punishment. When a falsehood did not align with political preferences, this effect was significantly smaller and less reliable, in part because people doubted the plausibility of the relevant counterfactual thoughts. These results emerged independently in three studies (two preregistered; total N = 2,783) and in meta- and Bayesian analyses, regardless of whether participants considered the same counterfactuals or generated their own. The results reveal how counterfactual thoughts can amplify partisan differences in judgments of alleged dishonesty. I discuss implications for theories of counterfactual thinking and motivated moral reasoning.

What if? Neural activity underlying semantic and episodic counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Parikh, Natasha; Ruzic, Luka; Stewart, Gregory W; Spreng, R Nathan; De Brigard, Felipe

2018-05-25

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) is the process of mentally simulating alternative versions of known facts. In the past decade, cognitive neuroscientists have begun to uncover the neural underpinnings of CFT, particularly episodic CFT (eCFT), which activates regions in the default network (DN) also activated by episodic memory (eM) recall. However, the engagement of DN regions is different for distinct kinds of eCFT. More plausible counterfactuals and counterfactuals about oneself show stronger activity in DN regions compared to implausible and other- or object-focused counterfactuals. The current study sought to identify a source for this difference in DN activity. Specifically, self-focused counterfactuals may also be more plausible, suggesting that DN core regions are sensitive to the plausibility of a simulation. On the other hand, plausible and self-focused counterfactuals may involve more episodic information than implausible and other-focused counterfactuals, which would imply DN sensitivity to episodic information. In the current study, we compared episodic and semantic counterfactuals generated to be plausible or implausible against episodic and semantic memory reactivation using fMRI. Taking multivariate and univariate approaches, we found that the DN is engaged more during episodic simulations, including eM and all eCFT, than during semantic simulations. Semantic simulations engaged more inferior temporal and lateral occipital regions. The only region that showed strong plausibility effects was the hippocampus, which was significantly engaged for implausible CFT but not for plausible CFT, suggestive of binding more disparate information. Consequences of these findings for the cognitive neuroscience of mental simulation are discussed. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Pretend play.

PubMed

Weisberg, Deena Skolnick

2015-01-01

Pretend play is a form of playful behavior that involves nonliteral action. Although on the surface this activity appears to be merely for fun, recent research has discovered that children's pretend play has connections to important cognitive and social skills, such as symbolic thinking, theory of mind, and counterfactual reasoning. The current article first defines pretend play and then reviews the arguments and evidence for these three connections. Pretend play has a nonliteral correspondence to reality, hence pretending may provide children with practice with navigating symbolic relationships, which may strengthen their language skills. Pretend play and theory of mind reasoning share a focus on others' mental states in order to correctly interpret their behavior, hence pretending and theory of mind may be mutually supportive in development. Pretend play and counterfactual reasoning both involve representing nonreal states of affairs, hence pretending may facilitate children's counterfactual abilities. These connections make pretend play an important phenomenon in cognitive science: Studying children's pretend play can provide insight into these other abilities and their developmental trajectories, and thereby into human cognitive architecture and its development. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Causal Responsibility and Counterfactuals

PubMed Central

Lagnado, David A; Gerstenberg, Tobias; Zultan, Ro'i

2013-01-01

How do people attribute responsibility in situations where the contributions of multiple agents combine to produce a joint outcome? The prevalence of over-determination in such cases makes this a difficult problem for counterfactual theories of causal responsibility. In this article, we explore a general framework for assigning responsibility in multiple agent contexts. We draw on the structural model account of actual causation (e.g., Halpern & Pearl, 2005) and its extension to responsibility judgments (Chockler & Halpern, 2004). We review the main theoretical and empirical issues that arise from this literature and propose a novel model of intuitive judgments of responsibility. This model is a function of both pivotality (whether an agent made a difference to the outcome) and criticality (how important the agent is perceived to be for the outcome, before any actions are taken). The model explains empirical results from previous studies and is supported by a new experiment that manipulates both pivotality and criticality. We also discuss possible extensions of this model to deal with a broader range of causal situations. Overall, our approach emphasizes the close interrelations between causality, counterfactuals, and responsibility attributions. PMID:23855451

How counterfactuals of Red-Queen theory shed light on science and its historiography.

PubMed

Dagg, Joachim L

2017-08-01

A historical episode of evolutionary theory, which has lead to the Red Queen theory of the evolutionary maintenance of sex, includes two striking contingencies. These are used to explore alternative what-if scenarios, in order to test some common opinions about such counterfactuals. This sheds new light on the nature of science and its historiography. One counterfactual leads to an unexpected convergence of its result to that of the actual science but, nevertheless, differs in its causal structure. The other diverges towards an incompatible alternative, but this requires further contingent choices that also diverge from actual science. The convergence in the first counterfactual is due to a horizontal transfer of knowledge. Similar transfers of knowledge are typical for innovations of actual science. This suggests that contingent choices can merge as well as fork research traditions both in actual research and counterfactual history. Neither the paths of the actual history of science nor those of its counterfactual alternatives will form a tree of exclusively diverging bifurcations, but a network instead. Convergencies in counterfactuals may, therefore, be due to the web-structure of science as much as to the aims of the historians in question. Furthermore, the difference in causal structure between the actual science and its convergent counterfactual might become diagnostic for external factors rather than internal aims forcing a historian towards convergence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural Counterfactuals: A Brief Introduction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearl, Judea

2013-01-01

Recent advances in causal reasoning have given rise to a computational model that emulates the process by which humans generate, evaluate, and distinguish counterfactual sentences. Contrasted with the "possible worlds" account of counterfactuals, this "structural" model enjoys the advantages of representational economy,…

The Role of Counterfactual Thinking on Attitudes Toward ADHD Medication Use.

PubMed

Ramos, Ashley M; Becker, Brittney; Biemer, Julie A; Clark, Lindsay; Fields, Sherecce; Smallman, Rachel

2016-01-01

Despite serious health risks, attitudes toward Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) medication use in college students remain favorable. Given the robust link between attitudes and behavior (e.g., the Theory of Planned Behavior), it is important to understand how these attitudes are developed and maintained. The current study examined the role of counterfactual, or "what if'" thinking as a mechanism for the development of attitudes toward ADHD medications. All participants (n = 190) were asked to read either a positive or negative scenario regarding ADHD medication misuse and rate their attitudes toward the behavior; half of the participants were also asked to generate counterfactuals prior to rating their attitudes. Results suggest that scenario valence influenced the direction of counterfactual statements. Further, through the generation of upward counterfactuals, the negative scenario elicited more positive attitudes toward ADHD medication misuse. Based on limited prior research, it is suggested that upward counterfactuals may allow individuals to explain away the misuse of ADHD medication and avoid negative emotions such as guilt and shame related to current or prior ADHD medication misuse. In sum, additional research is needed to confirm preliminary findings that suggest counterfactual thinking could be a precursor to ADHD medication misuse.

Altered behavioral and neural responsiveness to counterfactual gains in the elderly.

PubMed

Tobia, Michael J; Guo, Rong; Gläscher, Jan; Schwarze, Ulrike; Brassen, Stefanie; Büchel, Christian; Obermayer, Klaus; Sommer, Tobias

2016-06-01

Counterfactual information processing refers to the consideration of events that did not occur in comparison to those actually experienced, in order to determine optimal actions, and can be formulated as computational learning signals, referred to as fictive prediction errors. Decision making and the neural circuitry for counterfactual processing are altered in healthy elderly adults. This experiment investigated age differences in neural systems for decision making with knowledge of counterfactual outcomes. Two groups of healthy adult participants, young (N = 30; ages 19-30 years) and elderly (N = 19; ages 65-80 years), were scanned with fMRI during 240 trials of a strategic sequential investment task in which a particular strategy of differentially weighting counterfactual gains and losses during valuation is associated with more optimal performance. Elderly participants earned significantly less than young adults, differently weighted counterfactual consequences and exploited task knowledge, and exhibited altered activity in a fronto-striatal circuit while making choices, compared to young adults. The degree to which task knowledge was exploited was positively correlated with modulation of neural activity by expected value in the vmPFC for young adults, but not in the elderly. These findings demonstrate that elderly participants' poor task performance may be related to different counterfactual processing.

Improving Physical Task Performance with Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking.

PubMed

Hammell, Cecilia; Chan, Amy Y C

2016-01-01

Counterfactual thinking (reflecting on "what might have been") has been shown to enhance future performance by translating information about past mistakes into plans for future action. Prefactual thinking (imagining "what might be if…") may serve a greater preparative function than counterfactual thinking as it is future-orientated and focuses on more controllable features, thus providing a practical script to prime future behaviour. However, whether or not this difference in hypothetical thought content may translate into a difference in actual task performance has been largely unexamined. In Experiment 1 (n = 42), participants performed trials of a computer-simulated physical task, in between which they engaged in either task-related hypothetical thinking (counterfactual or prefactual) or an unrelated filler task (control). As hypothesised, prefactuals contained more controllable features than counterfactuals. Moreover, participants who engaged in either form of hypothetical thinking improved significantly in task performance over trials compared to participants in the control group. The difference in thought content between counterfactuals and prefactuals, however, did not yield a significant difference in performance improvement. Experiment 2 (n = 42) replicated these findings in a dynamic balance task environment. Together, these findings provide further evidence for the preparatory function of counterfactuals, and demonstrate that prefactuals share this same functional characteristic.

The Experimental Demonstration of High Efficiency Interaction-free Measurement for Quantum Counterfactual-like Communication.

PubMed

Liu, Chao; Liu, Jinhong; Zhang, Junxiang; Zhu, Shiyao

2017-09-07

We present an interaction-free measurement with quantum Zeno effect and a high efficiency η = 74.6% ± 0.15%. As a proof-of-principle demonstration, this measurement can be used to implement a quantum counterfactual-like communication protocol. Instead of a single photon state, we use a coherent light as the input source and show that the output agrees with the proposed quantum counterfactual communication protocol according to Salih et al. Although the counterfactuality is not achieved due to the presence of a few photons in the public channel, we show that the signal light is nearly absent in the public channel, which exhibits a proof-of-principle quantum counterfactual-like property of communication.

Understanding of emotions based on counterfactual reasoning in children with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Begeer, Sander; De Rosnay, Marc; Lunenburg, Patty; Stegge, Hedy; Terwogt, Mark Meerum

2014-04-01

The understanding of emotions based on counterfactual reasoning was studied in children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorders (n = 71) and in typically developing children (n = 71), aged 6-12 years. Children were presented with eight stories about two protagonists who experienced the same positive or negative outcome, either due to their own action or by default. Relative to the comparison group, children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorder were poor at explaining emotions based on downward counterfactual reasoning (i.e. contentment and relief). There were no group differences in upward counterfactual reasoning (i.e. disappointment and regret). In the comparison group, second-order false-belief reasoning was related to children's understanding of second-order counterfactual emotions (i.e. regret and relief), while children in the high-functioning autism spectrum disorder group relied more on their general intellectual skills. Results are discussed in terms of the different functions of counterfactual reasoning about emotion and the cognitive style of children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorder.

Postdecisional counterfactual thinking by actors and readers.

PubMed

Girotto, Vittorio; Ferrante, Donatella; Pighin, Stefania; Gonzalez, Michel

2007-06-01

How do individuals think counterfactually about the outcomes of their decisions? Most previous studies have investigated how readers think about fictional stories, rather than how actors think about events they have actually experienced. We assumed that differences in individuals' roles (actor vs. reader) can make different information available, which in turn can affect counterfactual thinking. Hence, we predicted an effect of role on postdecisional counterfactual thinking. Reporting the results of eight studies, we show that readers undo the negative outcome of a story by undoing the protagonist's choice to tackle a given problem, rather than the protagonist's unsuccessful attempt to solve it. But actors who make the same choice and experience the same negative outcome as the protagonist undo this outcome by altering features of the problem. We also show that this effect does not depend on motivational factors. These results contradict current accounts of counterfactual thinking and demonstrate the necessity of investigating the counterfactual thoughts of individuals in varied roles.

Autobiographical memory functions of nostalgia in comparison to rumination and counterfactual thinking: similarity and uniqueness.

PubMed

Cheung, Wing-Yee; Wildschut, Tim; Sedikides, Constantine

2018-02-01

We compared and contrasted nostalgia with rumination and counterfactual thinking in terms of their autobiographical memory functions. Specifically, we assessed individual differences in nostalgia, rumination, and counterfactual thinking, which we then linked to self-reported functions or uses of autobiographical memory (Self-Regard, Boredom Reduction, Death Preparation, Intimacy Maintenance, Conversation, Teach/Inform, and Bitterness Revival). We tested which memory functions are shared and which are uniquely linked to nostalgia. The commonality among nostalgia, rumination, and counterfactual thinking resides in their shared positive associations with all memory functions: individuals who evinced a stronger propensity towards past-oriented thought (as manifested in nostalgia, rumination, and counterfactual thinking) reported greater overall recruitment of memories in the service of present functioning. The uniqueness of nostalgia resides in its comparatively strong positive associations with Intimacy Maintenance, Teach/Inform, and Self-Regard and weak association with Bitterness Revival. In all, nostalgia possesses a more positive functional signature than do rumination and counterfactual thinking.

Undoing the past in order to lie in the present: Counterfactual thinking and deceptive communication.

PubMed

Briazu, Raluca A; Walsh, Clare R; Deeprose, Catherine; Ganis, Giorgio

2017-04-01

This paper explores the proposal that there is a close link between counterfactual thinking and lying. Both require the imagination of alternatives to reality and we describe four studies which explore this link. In Study 1 we measured individual differences in both abilities and found that individuals with a tendency to generate counterfactual thoughts were also more likely to generate potential lies. Studies 2 and 3 showed that counterfactual availability influences people's ability to come up with lies and the extent to which they expect others to lie. Study 4 used a behavioural measure of deception to show that people tend to lie more in situations also known to elicit counterfactual thoughts. Overall, the results show that the imagination of alternatives to the past plays an important role in the generation of lies. We discuss the implications for the fields of counterfactual thinking and deception. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The making of might-have-beens: effects of free will belief on counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Alquist, Jessica L; Ainsworth, Sarah E; Baumeister, Roy F; Daly, Michael; Stillman, Tyler F

2015-02-01

Counterfactual thoughts are based on the assumption that one situation could result in multiple possible outcomes. This assumption underlies most theories of free will and contradicts deterministic views that there is only one possible outcome of any situation. Three studies tested the hypothesis that stronger belief in free will would lead to more counterfactual thinking. Experimental manipulations (Studies 1-2) and a measure (Studies 3-4) of belief in free will were linked to increased counterfactual thinking in response to autobiographical (Studies 1, 3, and 4) and hypothetical (Study 2) events. Belief in free will also predicted the kind of counterfactuals generated. Belief in free will was associated with an increase in the generation of self and upward counterfactuals, which have been shown to be particularly useful for learning. These findings fit the view that belief in free will is promoted by societies because it facilitates learning and culturally valued change. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Exploring the experience of episodic past, future, and counterfactual thinking in younger and older adults: A study of a Colombian sample.

PubMed

De Brigard, Felipe; Rodriguez, Diana Carolina; Montañés, Patricia

2017-05-01

Although extant evidence suggests that many neural and cognitive mechanisms underlying episodic past, future, and counterfactual thinking overlap, recent results have uncovered differences among these three processes. However, the extent to which there may be age-related differences in the phenomenological characteristics associated with episodic past, future and counterfactual thinking remains unclear. This study used adapted versions of the Memory Characteristics Questionnaire and the Autobiographical Interview in younger and older adults to investigate the subjective experience of episodic past, future and counterfactual thinking. The results suggest that, across all conditions, younger adults generated more internal details than older adults. However, older adults generated more external details for episodic future and counterfactual thinking than younger adults. Additionally, younger and older adults generated more internal details, and gave higher sensory and contextual ratings, for memories rather than future and counterfactual thoughts. Methodological and theoretical consequences for extant theories of mental simulation are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Counterfactual Comparison on Fairness in Gain-Loss Contexts.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Wang, Chunsheng; Taxer, Jamie; Yang, Zhong; Zheng, Ya; Liu, Xun

2017-01-01

Fairness perceptions may be affected by counterfactual comparisons. Although certain studies using a two-player ultimatum game (UG) have shown that comparison with the proposers influences the responders' fairness perceptions in a gain context, the effect of counterfactual comparison in a UG with multiple responders or proposers remains unclear, especially in a loss context. To resolve these issues, this study used a modified three-player UG with multiple responders in Experiment 1 and multiple proposers in Experiment 2 to examine the influence of counterfactual comparison on fairness-related decision-making in gain and loss contexts. The two experiments consistently showed that regardless of the gain or loss context, the level of inequality of the offer and counterfactual comparison influenced acceptance rates (ARs), response times (RTs), and fairness ratings (FRs). If the offers that were received were better than the counterfactual offers, unequal offers were more likely to be accepted than equal offers, and participants were more likely to report higher FRs and to make decisions more quickly. In contrast, when the offers they received were worse than the counterfactual offers, participants were more likely to reject unequal offers than equal offers, reported lower FRs, and made decisions more slowly. These results demonstrate that responders' fairness perceptions are influenced by not only comparisons of the absolute amount of money that they would receive but also specific counterfactuals from other proposers or responders. These findings improve our understanding of fairness perceptions.

The Influence of Counterfactual Comparison on Fairness in Gain-Loss Contexts

PubMed Central

Li, Qi; Wang, Chunsheng; Taxer, Jamie; Yang, Zhong; Zheng, Ya; Liu, Xun

2017-01-01

Fairness perceptions may be affected by counterfactual comparisons. Although certain studies using a two-player ultimatum game (UG) have shown that comparison with the proposers influences the responders' fairness perceptions in a gain context, the effect of counterfactual comparison in a UG with multiple responders or proposers remains unclear, especially in a loss context. To resolve these issues, this study used a modified three-player UG with multiple responders in Experiment 1 and multiple proposers in Experiment 2 to examine the influence of counterfactual comparison on fairness-related decision-making in gain and loss contexts. The two experiments consistently showed that regardless of the gain or loss context, the level of inequality of the offer and counterfactual comparison influenced acceptance rates (ARs), response times (RTs), and fairness ratings (FRs). If the offers that were received were better than the counterfactual offers, unequal offers were more likely to be accepted than equal offers, and participants were more likely to report higher FRs and to make decisions more quickly. In contrast, when the offers they received were worse than the counterfactual offers, participants were more likely to reject unequal offers than equal offers, reported lower FRs, and made decisions more slowly. These results demonstrate that responders' fairness perceptions are influenced by not only comparisons of the absolute amount of money that they would receive but also specific counterfactuals from other proposers or responders. These findings improve our understanding of fairness perceptions. PMID:28536542

Counterfactual Thought Experiments: A Necessary Teaching Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lebow, Richard Ned

2007-01-01

Counterfactuals are routinely used in physical and biological sciences to develop and evaluate sophisticated, non-linear models. They have been used with telling effect in the study of economic history and American politics. For some historians, counterfactual arguments have no scholarly standing. They consider them flights of fancy, fun over a…

Anomalies in Real and Counterfactual Worlds: An Eye-Movement Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Heather J.; Sanford, Anthony J.

2008-01-01

Counterfactual reasoning is valid reasoning arising from premises that are true in a hypothetical model, but false in actuality. Investigations of counterfactuals have concentrated on reasoning and production, but psycholinguistic research has been more limited. We report three eye-movement studies investigating the comprehension of counterfactual…

At the Intersection of Cognition and Grammar: Deficits Comprehending Counterfactuals in Turkish Children with Specific Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duman, Tuba Yarbay; Blom, Elma; Topbas, Seyhun

2015-01-01

Purpose: This study investigated the comprehension of counterfactual conditionals in monolingual Turkish children with specific language impairment (SLI) and typically developing (TD) children. Comprehending counterfactuals requires a well-developed cognitive system (Beck, Riggs, & Gorniak, 2009). Children with SLI have impaired cognitive…

Counterfactual Thinking as a Mechanism in Narrative Persuasion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tal-Or, Nurit; Boninger, David S.; Poran, Amir; Gleicher, Faith

2004-01-01

Two experiments examined the impact of counterfactual thinking on persuasion. Participants in both experiments were exposed to short video clips in which an actor described a car accident that resulted in serious injury. In the narrative description, the salience of a counterfactual was manipulated by either explicitly including the counterfactual…

The Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking

PubMed Central

Epstude, Kai; Roese, Neal J.

2008-01-01

Counterfactuals are thoughts about alternatives to past events, that is, thoughts of what might have been. This article provides an updated account of the functional theory of counterfactual thinking, suggesting that such thoughts are best explained in terms of their role in behavior regulation and performance improvement. The article reviews a wide range of cognitive experiments indicating that counterfactual thoughts may influence behavior by either of two routes: a content-specific pathway (which involves specific informational effects on behavioral intentions, which then influence behavior) and a content-neutral pathway (which involves indirect effects via affect, mind-sets, or motivation). The functional theory is particularly useful in organizing recent findings regarding counterfactual thinking and mental health. The article concludes by considering the connections to other theoretical conceptions, especially recent advances in goal cognition. PMID:18453477

From what might have been to what must have been: counterfactual thinking creates meaning.

PubMed

Kray, Laura J; George, Linda G; Liljenquist, Katie A; Galinsky, Adam D; Tetlock, Philip E; Roese, Neal J

2010-01-01

Four experiments explored whether 2 uniquely human characteristics-counterfactual thinking (imagining alternatives to the past) and the fundamental drive to create meaning in life-are causally related. Rather than implying a random quality to life, the authors hypothesized and found that counterfactual thinking heightens the meaningfulness of key life experiences. Reflecting on alternative pathways to pivotal turning points even produced greater meaning than directly reflecting on the meaning of the event itself. Fate perceptions ("it was meant to be") and benefit-finding (recognition of positive consequences) were identified as independent causal links between counterfactual thinking and the construction of meaning. Through counterfactual reflection, the upsides to reality are identified, a belief in fate emerges, and ultimately more meaning is derived from important life events.

The functional theory of counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Epstude, Kai; Roese, Neal J

2008-05-01

Counterfactuals are thoughts about alternatives to past events, that is, thoughts of what might have been. This article provides an updated account of the functional theory of counterfactual thinking, suggesting that such thoughts are best explained in terms of their role in behavior regulation and performance improvement. The article reviews a wide range of cognitive experiments indicating that counterfactual thoughts may influence behavior by either of two routes: a content-specific pathway (which involves specific informational effects on behavioral intentions, which then influence behavior) and a content-neutral pathway (which involves indirect effects via affect, mind-sets, or motivation). The functional theory is particularly useful in organizing recent findings regarding counterfactual thinking and mental health. The article concludes by considering the connections to other theoretical conceptions, especially recent advances in goal cognition.

Semi-counterfactual cryptography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akshata Shenoy, H.; Srikanth, R.; Srinivas, T.

2013-09-01

In counterfactual quantum key distribution (QKD), two remote parties can securely share random polarization-encoded bits through the blocking rather than the transmission of particles. We propose a semi-counterfactual QKD, i.e., one where the secret bit is shared, and also encoded, based on the blocking or non-blocking of a particle. The scheme is thus semi-counterfactual and not based on polarization encoding. As with other counterfactual schemes and the Goldenberg-Vaidman protocol, but unlike BB84, the encoding states are orthogonal and security arises ultimately from single-particle non-locality. Unlike any of them, however, the secret bit generated is maximally indeterminate until the joint action of Alice and Bob. We prove the general security of the protocol, and study the most general photon-number-preserving incoherent attack in detail.

Improving Physical Task Performance with Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking

PubMed Central

Hammell, Cecilia; Chan, Amy Y. C.

2016-01-01

Counterfactual thinking (reflecting on “what might have been”) has been shown to enhance future performance by translating information about past mistakes into plans for future action. Prefactual thinking (imagining “what might be if…”) may serve a greater preparative function than counterfactual thinking as it is future-orientated and focuses on more controllable features, thus providing a practical script to prime future behaviour. However, whether or not this difference in hypothetical thought content may translate into a difference in actual task performance has been largely unexamined. In Experiment 1 (n = 42), participants performed trials of a computer-simulated physical task, in between which they engaged in either task-related hypothetical thinking (counterfactual or prefactual) or an unrelated filler task (control). As hypothesised, prefactuals contained more controllable features than counterfactuals. Moreover, participants who engaged in either form of hypothetical thinking improved significantly in task performance over trials compared to participants in the control group. The difference in thought content between counterfactuals and prefactuals, however, did not yield a significant difference in performance improvement. Experiment 2 (n = 42) replicated these findings in a dynamic balance task environment. Together, these findings provide further evidence for the preparatory function of counterfactuals, and demonstrate that prefactuals share this same functional characteristic. PMID:27942041

Evaluation of counterfactuality in counterfactual communication protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arvidsson-Shukur, D. R. M.; Barnes, C. H. W.; Gottfries, A. N. O.

2017-12-01

We provide an in-depth investigation of parameter estimation in nested Mach-Zehnder interferometers (NMZIs) using two information measures: the Fisher information and the Shannon mutual information. Protocols for counterfactual communication have, so far, been based on two different definitions of counterfactuality. In particular, some schemes have been based on NMZI devices, and have recently been subject to criticism. We provide a methodology for evaluating the counterfactuality of these protocols, based on an information-theoretical framework. More specifically, we make the assumption that any realistic quantum channel in MZI structures will have some weak uncontrolled interaction. We then use the Fisher information of this interaction to measure counterfactual violations. The measure is used to evaluate the suggested counterfactual communication protocol of H. Salih et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 170502 (2013), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.170502]. The protocol of D. R. M. Arvidsson-Shukur and C. H. W. Barnes [Phys. Rev. A 94, 062303 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevA.94.062303], based on a different definition, is evaluated with a probability measure. Our results show that the definition of Arvidsson-Shukur and Barnes is satisfied by their scheme, while that of Salih et al. is only satisfied by perfect quantum channels. For realistic devices the latter protocol does not achieve its objective.

Upward counterfactual thinking and depression: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Broomhall, Anne Gene; Phillips, Wendy J; Hine, Donald W; Loi, Natasha M

2017-07-01

This meta-analysis examined the strength of association between upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms. Forty-two effect sizes from a pooled sample of 13,168 respondents produced a weighted average effect size of r=.26, p<.001. Moderator analyses using an expanded set of 96 effect sizes indicated that upward counterfactuals and regret produced significant positive effects that were similar in strength. Effects also did not vary as a function of the theme of the counterfactual-inducing situation or study design (cross-sectional versus longitudinal). Significant effect size heterogeneity was observed across sample types, methods of assessing upward counterfactual thinking, and types of depression scale. Significant positive effects were found in studies that employed samples of bereaved individuals, older adults, terminally ill patients, or university students, but not adolescent mothers or mixed samples. Both number-based and Likert-based upward counterfactual thinking assessments produced significant positive effects, with the latter generating a larger effect. All depression scales produced significant positive effects, except for the Psychiatric Epidemiology Research Interview. Research and theoretical implications are discussed in relation to cognitive theories of depression and the functional theory of upward counterfactual thinking, and important gaps in the extant research literature are identified. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pitfalls of Counterfactual Thinking in Medical Practice: Preventing Errors by Using More Functional Reference Points

PubMed Central

Petrocelli, John V.

2013-01-01

Background Counterfactual thinking involves mentally simulating alternatives to reality. The current article reviews literature pertaining to the relevance counterfactual thinking has for the quality of medical decision making. Although earlier counterfactual thought research concluded that counterfactuals have important benefits for the individual, there are reasons to believe that counterfactual thinking is also associated with dysfunctional consequences. Of particular focus is whether or not medical experience, and its influence on counterfactual thinking, actually informs or improves medical practice. It is hypothesized that relatively more probable decision alternatives, followed by undesirable outcomes and counterfactual thought responses, can be abandoned for relatively less probable decision alternatives. Design and Methods Building on earlier research demonstrating that counterfactual thinking can impede memory and learning in a decision paradigm with undergraduate students, the current study examines the extent to which earlier findings can be generalized to practicing physicians (N=10). Participants were asked to complete 60 trials of a computerized Monty Hall Problem simulation. Learning by experience was operationalized as the frequency of switch-decisions. Results Although some learning was evidenced by a general increase in switch-decision frequency across block trials, the extent of learning demonstrated was not ideal, nor practical. Conclusions A simple, multiple-trial, decision paradigm demonstrated that doctors fail to learn basic decision-outcome associations through experience. An agenda for future research, which tests the functionality of reference points (other than counterfactual alternatives) for the purposes of medical decision making, is proposed. Significance for public health The quality of healthcare depends heavily on the judgments and decisions made by doctors and other medical professionals. Findings from this research indicate that doctors fail to learn basic decision-outcome associations through experience, as evidenced by the sample’s tendency to select the optimal decision strategy in only 50% of 60 trials (each of which was followed by veridical feedback). These findings suggest that professional experience is unlikely to enhance the quality of medical decision making. Thus, this research has implications for understanding how doctors’ reactions to medical outcomes shape their judgments and affect the degree to which their future treatment intentions are consistent with clinical practice guidelines. The current research is integrated with earlier research on counter-factual thinking, which appears to be a primary element inhibiting the learning of decision-outcome associations. An agenda for future research is proposed. PMID:25170495

Counterfactual Conditionals and False Belief: A Developmental Dissociation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perner, Josef; Sprung, Manuel; Steinkogler, Bettina

2004-01-01

The objective of this study was to explore factors that affect the difficulty of counterfactual reasoning in 3-5-year-old children and to shed light on the reason why counterfactual reasoning relates to understanding false belief [Cognitive Development, 13 (1998) 73-90]. Using travel scenarios, the difference between simple scenarios, in which…

Executive Control and the Experience of Regret

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Patrick; Riggs, Kevin J.; Beck, Sarah R.

2012-01-01

The experience of regret rests on a counterfactual analysis of events. Previous research indicates that regret emerges at around 6 years of age, marginally later than the age at which children begin to answer counterfactual questions correctly. We hypothesized that the late emergence of regret relative to early counterfactual thinking is a result…

Data Mining in Finance: Using Counterfactuals To Generate Knowledge from Organizational Information Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dhar, Vasant

1998-01-01

Shows how counterfactuals and machine learning methods can be used to guide exploration of large databases that addresses some of the fundamental problems that organizations face in learning from data. Discusses data mining, particularly in the financial arena; generating useful knowledge from data; and the evaluation of counterfactuals. (LRW)

Counterfactual overdetermination vs. the causal exclusion problem.

PubMed

Sparber, Georg

2005-01-01

This paper aims to show that a counterfactual approach to causation is not sufficient to provide a solution to the causal exclusion problem in the form of systematic overdetermination. Taking into account the truthmakers of causal counterfactuals provides a strong argument in favour of the identity of causes in situations of translevel, causation.

Counterfactual Mutation of Critical Classroom Incidents: Implications for Reflective Practice in Initial Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGarr, Oliver; McCormack, Orla

2016-01-01

This study explores reflective practice through the lens of counterfactual thinking and examines its role in encouraging student teachers to reflect on negative "critical incidents". The study posits that reflections on critical incidents are often not "critical" in nature. They more frequently result in counterfactual thinking…

The differential effect of realistic and unrealistic counterfactual thinking on regret.

PubMed

Sevdalis, Nick; Kokkinaki, Flora

2006-06-01

Research has established that realistic counterfactual thinking can determine the intensity and the content of people's affective reactions to decision outcomes and events. Not much is known, however, about the affective consequences of counterfactual thinking that is unrealistic (i.e., that does not correspond to the main causes of a negative outcome). In three experiments, we investigate the influence of realistic and unrealistic counterfactuals on experienced regret after negative outcomes. In Experiment 1, we found that participants who thought unrealistically about a poor outcome reported less regret than those who thought realistically about it. In Experiments 2a and 2b, we replicated this finding and we showed that the decrease in regret was associated with a shift in the causal attributions of the poor outcome. Participants who thought unrealistically attributed it more to external circumstances and less to their own behaviours than those who thought realistically about it. We discuss the implications of these findings for the role of counterfactuals as self-serving biases and the functionality of regret as a counterfactual emotion.

Experimental Realization of High-Efficiency Counterfactual Computation.

PubMed

Kong, Fei; Ju, Chenyong; Huang, Pu; Wang, Pengfei; Kong, Xi; Shi, Fazhan; Jiang, Liang; Du, Jiangfeng

2015-08-21

Counterfactual computation (CFC) exemplifies the fascinating quantum process by which the result of a computation may be learned without actually running the computer. In previous experimental studies, the counterfactual efficiency is limited to below 50%. Here we report an experimental realization of the generalized CFC protocol, in which the counterfactual efficiency can break the 50% limit and even approach unity in principle. The experiment is performed with the spins of a negatively charged nitrogen-vacancy color center in diamond. Taking advantage of the quantum Zeno effect, the computer can remain in the not-running subspace due to the frequent projection by the environment, while the computation result can be revealed by final detection. The counterfactual efficiency up to 85% has been demonstrated in our experiment, which opens the possibility of many exciting applications of CFC, such as high-efficiency quantum integration and imaging.

Experimental Realization of High-Efficiency Counterfactual Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Fei; Ju, Chenyong; Huang, Pu; Wang, Pengfei; Kong, Xi; Shi, Fazhan; Jiang, Liang; Du, Jiangfeng

2015-08-01

Counterfactual computation (CFC) exemplifies the fascinating quantum process by which the result of a computation may be learned without actually running the computer. In previous experimental studies, the counterfactual efficiency is limited to below 50%. Here we report an experimental realization of the generalized CFC protocol, in which the counterfactual efficiency can break the 50% limit and even approach unity in principle. The experiment is performed with the spins of a negatively charged nitrogen-vacancy color center in diamond. Taking advantage of the quantum Zeno effect, the computer can remain in the not-running subspace due to the frequent projection by the environment, while the computation result can be revealed by final detection. The counterfactual efficiency up to 85% has been demonstrated in our experiment, which opens the possibility of many exciting applications of CFC, such as high-efficiency quantum integration and imaging.

Meaning of counterfactual statements in quantum physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stapp, Henry P.

1998-10-01

David Mermin suggests that my recent proof pertaining to quantum nonlocality is undermined by an essential ambiguity pertaining to the meaning of counterfactual statements in quantum physics. The ambiguity he cites arises from his imposition of a certain criterion for the meaningfulness of such counterfactual statements. That criterion conflates the meaning of a counterfactual statement with the details of a proof of its validity in such a way as to make the meaning of such a statement dependent upon the context in which it occurs. That dependence violates the normal demand in logic that the meaning of a statement be defined by the words in the statement itself, not by the context in which the statement occurs. My proof conforms to that normal requirement. I describe the context-independent meaning within my proof of the counterfactual statements in question.

Patients with schizophrenia activate behavioural intentions facilitated by counterfactual reasoning.

PubMed

Contreras, Fernando; Albacete, Auria; Tebé, Cristian; Benejam, Bessy; Caño, Agnes; Menchón, José Manuel

2017-01-01

The main variables assessed were: answer to complete a target task (wrong or correctly), and percentage gain in the reaction time (RT) to complete a target task correctly depending on whether the prime was a counterfactual or a neutral-control cue. These variables were assessed in 37 patients with schizophrenia and 37 healthy controls. Potential associations with clinical status and socio-demographic characteristics were also explored. When a counterfactual prime was presented, the probability of giving an incorrect answer was lower for the entire sample than when a neutral prime was presented (OR 0.58; CI 95% 0.42 to 0.79), but the schizophrenia patients showed a higher probability than the controls of giving an incorrect answer (OR 3.89; CI 95% 2.0 to 7.6). Both the schizophrenia patients and the controls showed a similar percentage gain in RT to a correct answer of 8%. Challenging the results of previous research, our findings suggest a normal activation of behavioural intentions facilitated by CFT in schizophrenia. Nevertheless, the patients showed more difficulty than the controls with the task, adding support to the concept of CFT as a potential new target for consideration in future therapeutic approaches for this illness.

Assessing the Performance of the "Counterfactual as Self-Estimated by Program Participants": Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mueller, Christoph Emanuel; Gaus, Hansjoerg

2015-01-01

In this article, we test an alternative approach to creating a counterfactual basis for estimating individual and average treatment effects. Instead of using control/comparison groups or before-measures, the so-called Counterfactual as Self-Estimated by Program Participants (CSEPP) relies on program participants' self-estimations of their own…

Meaning of counterfactual statements in quantum physics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stapp, H.P.

1998-10-01

David Mermin suggests that my recent proof pertaining to quantum nonlocality is undermined by an essential ambiguity pertaining to the meaning of counterfactual statements in quantum physics. The ambiguity he cites arises from his imposition of a certain criterion for the meaningfulness of such counterfactual statements. That criterion conflates the meaning of a counterfactual statement with the details of a proof of its validity in such a way as to make the meaning of such a statement dependent upon the context in which it occurs. That dependence violates the normal demand in logic that the meaning of a statement bemore » defined by the words in the statement itself, not by the context in which the statement occurs. My proof conforms to that normal requirement. I describe the context-independent meaning within my proof of the counterfactual statements in question. {copyright} {ital 1998 American Association of Physics Teachers.}« less

Counterfactual Reasoning: Developing a sense of “nearest possible world”

PubMed Central

Rafetseder, Eva; Cristi-Vargas, Renate; Perner, Josef

2011-01-01

We investigated at what point in development 3- to 6-year-old children begin to demonstrate counterfactual reasoning by controlling for fortuitously correct answers that result from basic conditional reasoning. Basic conditional reasoning occurs when one applies typical regularities (such as “If it doesn’t rain the street is dry”) to counterfactual questions (such as “If it had not rained, would the street be wet or dry?”) without regard to actual events (for example, if street cleaners had just been washing the street). In counterfactual reasoning, however, the conditional reasoning must be constrained by actual events (according to the “nearest possible world”). In situations when counterfactual reasoning and basic conditional reasoning would yield the same answers, even the youngest children gave mostly correct answers. However, tasks in which the two reasoning strategies resulted in different answers proved unusually difficult even for the older children. PMID:20331674

MIMICKING COUNTERFACTUAL OUTCOMES TO ESTIMATE CAUSAL EFFECTS.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2017-04-01

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even time-dependent Cox-models cannot be used to estimate the net treatment effect. Structural nested models have been applied in this setting. Structural nested models are based on counterfactuals: the outcome a person would have had had treatment been withheld after a certain time. Previous work on continuous-time structural nested models assumes that counterfactuals depend deterministically on observed data, while conjecturing that this assumption can be relaxed. This article proves that one can mimic counterfactuals by constructing random variables, solutions to a differential equation, that have the same distribution as the counterfactuals, even given past observed data. These "mimicking" variables can be used to estimate the parameters of structural nested models without assuming the treatment effect to be deterministic.

Counterfactuals in Action: An fMRI Study of Counterfactual Sentences Describing Physical Effort

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urrutia, Mabel; Gennari, Silvia P.; de Vega, Manuel

2012-01-01

Counterfactual statements such as "if Mary had cleaned the room, she would have moved the sofa" convey both actual and hypothetical actions, namely, that Mary did not clean the room or move the sofa, but she would have done so in some possible past situation. Such statements are ubiquitous in daily life and are involved in critical cognitive…

Counterfactual reasoning: From childhood to adulthood

PubMed Central

Rafetseder, Eva; Schwitalla, Maria; Perner, Josef

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to describe the developmental progression of counterfactual reasoning from childhood to adulthood. In contrast to the traditional view, it was recently reported by Rafetseder and colleagues that even a majority of 6-year-old children do not engage in counterfactual reasoning when asked counterfactual questions (Child Development, 2010, Vol. 81, pp. 376–389). By continuing to use the same method, the main result of the current Study 1 was that performance of the 9- to 11-year-olds was comparable to that of the 6-year-olds, whereas the 12- to 14-year-olds approximated adult performance. Study 2, using an intuitively simpler task based on Harris and colleagues (Cognition, 1996, Vol. 61, pp. 233–259), resulted in a similar conclusion, specifically that the ability to apply counterfactual reasoning is not fully developed in all children before 12 years of age. We conclude that children who failed our tasks seem to lack an understanding of what needs to be changed (events that are causally dependent on the counterfactual assumption) and what needs to be left unchanged and so needs to be kept as it actually happened. Alternative explanations, particularly executive functioning, are discussed in detail. PMID:23219156

Counterfactual distribution of Schrödinger cat states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenoy-Hejamadi, Akshata; Srikanth, R.

2015-12-01

In the counterfactual cryptography scheme proposed by Noh, the sender Alice probabilistically transmits classical information to the receiver Bob without the physical travel of a particle. Here we generalize this idea to the distribution of quantum entanglement. The key insight is to replace their classical input choices with quantum superpositions. We further show that the scheme can be generalized to counterfactually distribute multipartite cat states.

Experimental realization of counterfactual quantum cryptography Experimental realization of counterfactual quantum cryptography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brida, G.; Cavanna, A.; Degiovanni, I. P.; Genovese, M.; Traina, P.

2012-03-01

In counterfactual quantum key distribution (CQKD) information is transferred, in a secure way, between Alice and Bob even when no particle carrying the information is in fact transmitted between them. In this letter we fully implement the scheme for CQKD proposed in [1], demonstrating for the first time that information can be transmitted between two parties without the transmission of a carrier.

Impossibility of the Counterfactual Computation for All Possible Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaidman, L.

2007-04-01

A recent proposal for counterfactual computation [O. Hosten , Nature (London) 439, 949 (2006)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature04523] is analyzed. It is argued that the method does not provide counterfactual computation for all possible outcomes. The explanation involves a novel paradoxical feature of pre- and postselected quantum particles: The particle can reach a certain location without being on the path that leads to this location.

Counterfactual Consent and the Use of Deception in Research.

PubMed

Wilson, Alan T

2015-09-01

The use of deception for the purposes of research is a widespread practice within many areas of study. If we want to avoid either absolute acceptance or absolute rejection of this practice then we require some method of distinguishing between those uses of deception which are morally acceptable and those which are not. In this article I discuss the concept of counterfactual consent, and propose a related distinction between counterfactual-defeating deception and counterfactual-compatible deception. The aim is to show that this proposed distinction will be useful in furthering the debate regarding the use of deception for the purposes of research. © 2014 The Authors. Bioethics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Security proof of counterfactual quantum cryptography against general intercept-resend attacks and its vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng; Wang, Jian; Tang, Chao-Jing

2012-06-01

Counterfactual quantum cryptography, recently proposed by Noh, is featured with no transmission of signal particles. This exhibits evident security advantages, such as its immunity to the well-known photon-number-splitting attack. In this paper, the theoretical security of counterfactual quantum cryptography protocol against the general intercept-resend attacks is proved by bounding the information of an eavesdropper Eve more tightly than in Yin's proposal [Phys. Rev. A 82 042335 (2010)]. It is also shown that practical counterfactual quantum cryptography implementations may be vulnerable when equipped with imperfect apparatuses, by proving that a negative key rate can be achieved when Eve launches a time-shift attack based on imperfect detector efficiency.

Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought: 2012 and the case for better modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We present an example of a simulation-based forecast for the 2012 U.S. maize growing season produced as part of a high-resolution, multi-scale, predictive mechanistic modeling study designed for decision support, risk management, and counterfactual analysis. The simulations undertaken for this analy...

Patients with schizophrenia activate behavioural intentions facilitated by counterfactual reasoning

PubMed Central

Tebé, Cristian; Benejam, Bessy; Caño, Agnes; Menchón, José Manuel

2017-01-01

Previous research has associated schizophrenia with an inability to activate behavioural intentions facilitated by counterfactual thinking (CFT) as a step to improving performance. Consequently, these findings suggest that rehabilitation strategies will be entirely ineffective. To extend previous research, we evaluated the influence of CFT in the activation of behavioural intentions using a novel sequential priming paradigm in the largest sample of subjects explored to date. Method The main variables assessed were: answer to complete a target task (wrong or correctly), and percentage gain in the reaction time (RT) to complete a target task correctly depending on whether the prime was a counterfactual or a neutral-control cue. These variables were assessed in 37 patients with schizophrenia and 37 healthy controls. Potential associations with clinical status and socio-demographic characteristics were also explored. Results When a counterfactual prime was presented, the probability of giving an incorrect answer was lower for the entire sample than when a neutral prime was presented (OR 0.58; CI 95% 0.42 to 0.79), but the schizophrenia patients showed a higher probability than the controls of giving an incorrect answer (OR 3.89; CI 95% 2.0 to 7.6). Both the schizophrenia patients and the controls showed a similar percentage gain in RT to a correct answer of 8%. Conclusions Challenging the results of previous research, our findings suggest a normal activation of behavioural intentions facilitated by CFT in schizophrenia. Nevertheless, the patients showed more difficulty than the controls with the task, adding support to the concept of CFT as a potential new target for consideration in future therapeutic approaches for this illness. PMID:28586400

“Threshold‐crossing”: A Useful Way to Establish the Counterfactual in Clinical Trials?

PubMed Central

Eichler, H‐G; Bloechl‐Daum, B; Bauer, P; Bretz, F; Brown, J; Hampson, LV; Honig, P; Krams, M; Leufkens, H; Lim, R; Lumpkin, MM; Murphy, MJ; Pignatti, F; Posch, M; Schneeweiss, S; Trusheim, M

2016-01-01

A central question in the assessment of benefit/harm of new treatments is: how does the average outcome on the new treatment (the factual) compare to the average outcome had patients received no treatment or a different treatment known to be effective (the counterfactual)? Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the standard for comparing the factual with the counterfactual. Recent developments necessitate and enable a new way of determining the counterfactual for some new medicines. For select situations, we propose a new framework for evidence generation, which we call “threshold‐crossing.” This framework leverages the wealth of information that is becoming available from completed RCTs and from real world data sources. Relying on formalized procedures, information gleaned from these data is used to estimate the counterfactual, enabling efficacy assessment of new drugs. We propose future (research) activities to enable “threshold‐crossing” for carefully selected products and indications in which RCTs are not feasible. PMID:27650716

Questioning the preparatory function of counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Mercier, Hugo; Rolison, Jonathan J; Stragà, Marta; Ferrante, Donatella; Walsh, Clare R; Girotto, Vittorio

2017-02-01

Why do individuals mentally modify reality (e.g., "If it hadn't rained, we would have won the game")? According to the dominant view, counterfactuals primarily serve to prepare future performance. In fact, individuals who have just failed a task tend to modify the uncontrollable features of their attempt (e.g., "If the rules of the game were different, I would have won it"), generating counterfactuals that are unlikely to play any preparatory role. By contrast, they generate prefactuals that focus on the controllable features of their ensuing behavior (e.g., "If I concentrate more, I will win the next game"). Here, we test whether this tendency is robust and general. Studies 1a and 1b replicate this tendency and show that it occurs regardless of whether individuals think about their failures or their successes. Study 2 shows that individuals generate relatively few controllable counterfactuals, unless explicitly prompted to do so. These results raise some questions regarding the generality of the dominant view according to which counterfactuals mainly serve a preparatory function.

An improved probabilistic account of counterfactual reasoning.

PubMed

Lucas, Christopher G; Kemp, Charles

2015-10-01

When people want to identify the causes of an event, assign credit or blame, or learn from their mistakes, they often reflect on how things could have gone differently. In this kind of reasoning, one considers a counterfactual world in which some events are different from their real-world counterparts and considers what else would have changed. Researchers have recently proposed several probabilistic models that aim to capture how people do (or should) reason about counterfactuals. We present a new model and show that it accounts better for human inferences than several alternative models. Our model builds on the work of Pearl (2000), and extends his approach in a way that accommodates backtracking inferences and that acknowledges the difference between counterfactual interventions and counterfactual observations. We present 6 new experiments and analyze data from 4 experiments carried out by Rips (2010), and the results suggest that the new model provides an accurate account of both mean human judgments and the judgments of individuals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Counterfactual quantum key distribution with high efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ying; Wen, Qiao-Yan

2010-11-01

In a counterfactual quantum key distribution scheme, a secret key can be generated merely by transmitting the split vacuum pulses of single particles. We improve the efficiency of the first quantum key distribution scheme based on the counterfactual phenomenon. This scheme not only achieves the same security level as the original one but also has higher efficiency. We also analyze how to achieve the optimal efficiency under various conditions.

Counterfactual quantum key distribution with high efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun Ying; Beijing Electronic Science and Technology Institute, Beijing 100070; Wen Qiaoyan

2010-11-15

In a counterfactual quantum key distribution scheme, a secret key can be generated merely by transmitting the split vacuum pulses of single particles. We improve the efficiency of the first quantum key distribution scheme based on the counterfactual phenomenon. This scheme not only achieves the same security level as the original one but also has higher efficiency. We also analyze how to achieve the optimal efficiency under various conditions.

"It could have been worse": Developmental change in the use of a counterfactual consoling strategy.

PubMed

Payir, Ayse; Guttentag, Robert

2016-08-01

In two experiments, we investigated developmental change in the use of a counterfactual consoling strategy: "it could have been worse." In Experiment 1, 8-year-olds, 10-year-olds, 12-year-olds, and adults were presented with two stories in which a character feels bad as the result of an event that could have turned out better or could have turned out worse. Participants were asked what they would say or do to make the characters feel better. The results revealed that the frequency with which participants mentioned a counterfactual consoling strategy increased dramatically with age. In Experiment 2, using the same stories with similar-aged participants, we tested whether providing children with several consoling strategies (rather than asking them to create one) would prompt greater use of a counterfactual consoling strategy. Under these conditions, the 10- and 12-year-olds responded in a manner very similar to that of adults, whereas the 8-year-olds selected a counterfactual consoling strategy less often than participants at any other age. The findings from the two experiments suggest that, up through at least age 12years, children are less likely than adults to spontaneously apply counterfactual thinking when generating a consoling strategy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterizing the subjective experience of episodic past, future, and counterfactual thinking in healthy younger and older adults.

PubMed

De Brigard, Felipe; Giovanello, Kelly S; Stewart, Gregory W; Lockrow, Amber W; O'Brien, Margaret M; Spreng, R Nathan

2016-12-01

Recent evidence demonstrates remarkable overlap in the neural and cognitive mechanisms underlying episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and episodic counterfactual thinking. However, the extent to which the phenomenological characteristics associated with these mental simulations change as a result of ageing remains largely unexplored. The current study employs adapted versions of the Memory Characteristics Questionnaire and the Autobiographical Interview to compare the phenomenological characteristics associated with both positive and negative episodic past, future, and counterfactual simulations in younger and older adults. Additionally, it explores the influence of perceived likelihood in the experience of such simulations. The results indicate that, across all simulations, older adults generate more external details and report higher ratings of vividness, composition, and intensity than young adults. Conversely, younger adults generate more internal details across all conditions and rated positive and negative likely future events as more likely than did older adults. Additionally, both younger and older adults reported higher ratings for sensory, composition, and intensity factors during episodic memories relative to future and counterfactual thoughts. Finally, for both groups, ratings of spatial coherence and composition were higher for likely counterfactuals than for both unlikely counterfactuals and future simulations. Implications for the psychology of mental simulation and ageing are discussed.

Decision-Making Dysfunctions of Counterfactuals in Depression: Who Might I have Been?

PubMed Central

Howlett, Jonathon R.; Paulus, Martin P.

2013-01-01

Cognitive neuroscience enables us now to decompose major depressive disorder into dysfunctional component processes and relate these processes to specific neural substrates. This approach can be used to illuminate the biological basis of altered psychological processes in depression, including abnormal decision-making. One important decision-related process is counterfactual thinking, or the comparison of reality to hypothetical alternatives. Evidence suggests that individuals with depression experience exaggerated emotional responses due to focusing on counterfactual decision outcomes in general and regret, i.e., the emotion associated with focus on an alternative superior outcome, in particular. Regret is linked to self-esteem in that it involves the evaluation of an individual’s own decisions. Alterations of self-esteem, in turn, are a hallmark of depression. The literature on the behavioral and neural processes underlying counterfactual thinking, self-esteem, and depression is selectively reviewed. A model is proposed in which unstable self-representation in depression is more strongly perturbed when a different choice would have produced a better outcome, leading to increased feelings of regret. This approach may help unify diverse aspects of depression, can generate testable predictions, and may suggest new treatment avenues targeting distorted counterfactual cognitions, attentional biases toward superior counterfactual outcomes, or increased affective response to regretted outcomes. PMID:24265620

On the Counterfactual Nature of Gambling Near-misses: An Experimental Study.

PubMed

Wu, Yin; van Dijk, Eric; Li, Hong; Aitken, Michael; Clark, Luke

2017-10-01

Research on gambling near-misses has shown that objectively equivalent outcomes can yield divergent emotional and motivational responses. The subjective processing of gambling outcomes is affected substantially by close but non-obtained outcomes (i.e. counterfactuals). In the current paper, we investigate how different types of near-misses influence self-perceived luck and subsequent betting behavior in a wheel-of-fortune task. We investigate the counterfactual mechanism of these effects by testing the relationship with a second task measuring regret/relief processing. Across two experiments (Experiment 1, n  = 51; Experiment 2, n  = 104), we demonstrate that near-wins (neutral outcomes that are close to a jackpot) decreased self-perceived luck, whereas near-losses (neutral outcomes that are close to a major penalty) increased luck ratings. The effects of near-misses varied by near-miss position (i.e. whether the spinner stopped just short of, or passed through, the counterfactual outcome), consistent with established distinctions between upward versus downward, and additive versus subtractive, counterfactual thinking. In Experiment 1, individuals who showed stronger counterfactual processing on the regret/relief task were more responsive to near-wins and near-losses on the wheel-of-fortune task. The effect of near-miss position was attenuated when the anticipatory phase (i.e. the spin and deceleration) was removed in Experiment 2. Further differences were observed within the objective gains and losses, between "clear" and "narrow" outcomes. Taken together, these results help substantiate the counterfactual mechanism of near-misses. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the Counterfactual Nature of Gambling Near‐misses: An Experimental Study

PubMed Central

van Dijk, Eric; Li, Hong; Aitken, Michael; Clark, Luke

2017-01-01

Abstract Research on gambling near‐misses has shown that objectively equivalent outcomes can yield divergent emotional and motivational responses. The subjective processing of gambling outcomes is affected substantially by close but non‐obtained outcomes (i.e. counterfactuals). In the current paper, we investigate how different types of near‐misses influence self‐perceived luck and subsequent betting behavior in a wheel‐of‐fortune task. We investigate the counterfactual mechanism of these effects by testing the relationship with a second task measuring regret/relief processing. Across two experiments (Experiment 1, n = 51; Experiment 2, n = 104), we demonstrate that near‐wins (neutral outcomes that are close to a jackpot) decreased self‐perceived luck, whereas near‐losses (neutral outcomes that are close to a major penalty) increased luck ratings. The effects of near‐misses varied by near‐miss position (i.e. whether the spinner stopped just short of, or passed through, the counterfactual outcome), consistent with established distinctions between upward versus downward, and additive versus subtractive, counterfactual thinking. In Experiment 1, individuals who showed stronger counterfactual processing on the regret/relief task were more responsive to near‐wins and near‐losses on the wheel‐of‐fortune task. The effect of near‐miss position was attenuated when the anticipatory phase (i.e. the spin and deceleration) was removed in Experiment 2. Further differences were observed within the objective gains and losses, between “clear” and “narrow” outcomes. Taken together, these results help substantiate the counterfactual mechanism of near‐misses. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:29081596

A Validation Study of the Rank-Preserving Structural Failure Time Model: Confidence Intervals and Unique, Multiple, and Erroneous Solutions.

PubMed

Ouwens, Mario; Hauch, Ole; Franzén, Stefan

2018-05-01

The rank-preserving structural failure time model (RPSFTM) is used for health technology assessment submissions to adjust for switching patients from reference to investigational treatment in cancer trials. It uses counterfactual survival (survival when only reference treatment would have been used) and assumes that, at randomization, the counterfactual survival distribution for the investigational and reference arms is identical. Previous validation reports have assumed that patients in the investigational treatment arm stay on therapy throughout the study period. To evaluate the validity of the RPSFTM at various levels of crossover in situations in which patients are taken off the investigational drug in the investigational arm. The RPSFTM was applied to simulated datasets differing in percentage of patients switching, time of switching, underlying acceleration factor, and number of patients, using exponential distributions for the time on investigational and reference treatment. There were multiple scenarios in which two solutions were found: one corresponding to identical counterfactual distributions, and the other to two different crossing counterfactual distributions. The same was found for the hazard ratio (HR). Unique solutions were observed only when switching patients were on investigational treatment for <40% of the time that patients in the investigational arm were on treatment. Distributions other than exponential could have been used for time on treatment. An HR equal to 1 is a necessary but not always sufficient condition to indicate acceleration factors associated with equal counterfactual survival. Further assessment to distinguish crossing counterfactual curves from equal counterfactual curves is especially needed when the time that switchers stay on investigational treatment is relatively long compared to the time direct starters stay on investigational treatment.

Revisiting Hardy's paradox: counterfactual statements, real measurements, entanglement and weak values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharonov, Yakir; Botero, Alonso; Popescu, Sandu; Reznik, Benni; Tollaksen, Jeff

2002-08-01

Hardy's paradox is revisited. Usually the paradox is dismissed on grounds of counterfactuality, i.e., because the paradoxical effects appear only when one considers results of experiments which do not actually take place. We suggest a new set of measurements in connection with Hardy's scheme, and show that when they are actually performed, they yield strange and surprising outcomes. More generally, we claim that counterfactual paradoxes point to a deeper structure inherent to quantum mechanics.

Counterfactual Evaluation of Outcomes in Social Risk Decision-Making Situations: The Cognitive Developmental Paradox Revisited.

PubMed

Padrón, Iván; Rodrigo, María Jose; de Vega, Manuel

2016-01-01

We report a study that examined the existence of a cognitive developmental paradox in the counterfactual evaluation of decision-making outcomes. According to this paradox adolescents and young adults could be able to apply counterfactual reasoning and, yet, their counterfactual evaluation of outcomes could be biased in a salient socio-emotional context. To this aim, we analyzed the impact of health and social feedback on the counterfactual evaluation of outcomes in a laboratory decision-making task involving short narratives with the presence of peers. Forty risky (e.g., taking or refusing a drug), forty neutral decisions (e.g., eating a hamburger or a hotdog), and emotions felt following positive or negative outcomes were examined in 256 early, mid- and late adolescents, and young adults, evenly distributed. Results showed that emotional ratings to negative outcomes (regret and disappointment) but not to positive outcomes (relief and elation) were attenuated when feedback was provided. Evidence of development of cognitive decision-making capacities did also exist, as the capacity to perform faster emotional ratings and to differentially allocate more resources to the elaboration of emotional ratings when no feedback information was available increased with age. Overall, we interpret these findings as challenging the traditional cognitive developmental assumption that development necessarily proceeds from lesser to greater capacities, reflecting the impact of socio-emotional processes that could bias the counterfactual evaluation of social decision-making outcomes.

Grit and the brain: spontaneous activity of the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex mediates the relationship between the trait grit and academic performance

PubMed Central

Zhou, Ming; Chen, Taolin; Yang, Xun; Chen, Guangxiang; Wang, Meiyun; Gong, Qiyong

2017-01-01

Abstract As a personality trait, grit involves the tendency to strive to achieve long-term goals with continual passion and perseverance and plays an extremely crucial role in personal achievement. However, the neural mechanisms of grit remain largely unknown. In this study, we aimed to explore the association between grit and the fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF) in 217 healthy adolescent students using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI). We found that an individual’s grit was negatively related to the regional fALFF in the right dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC), which is involved in self-regulation, planning, goal setting and maintenance, and counterfactual thinking for reflecting on past failures. The results persisted even after the effects of general intelligence and the ‘big five’ personality traits were adjusted for. More importantly, the fALFF of the right DMPFC played a mediating role in the association between grit and academic performance. Overall, these findings reveal regional fALFF as a neural basis of grit and highlight the right DMPFC as a neural link between grit and academic performance. PMID:27672175

"Threshold-crossing": A Useful Way to Establish the Counterfactual in Clinical Trials?

PubMed

Eichler, H-G; Bloechl-Daum, B; Bauer, P; Bretz, F; Brown, J; Hampson, L V; Honig, P; Krams, M; Leufkens, H; Lim, R; Lumpkin, M M; Murphy, M J; Pignatti, F; Posch, M; Schneeweiss, S; Trusheim, M; Koenig, F

2016-12-01

A central question in the assessment of benefit/harm of new treatments is: how does the average outcome on the new treatment (the factual) compare to the average outcome had patients received no treatment or a different treatment known to be effective (the counterfactual)? Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the standard for comparing the factual with the counterfactual. Recent developments necessitate and enable a new way of determining the counterfactual for some new medicines. For select situations, we propose a new framework for evidence generation, which we call "threshold-crossing." This framework leverages the wealth of information that is becoming available from completed RCTs and from real world data sources. Relying on formalized procedures, information gleaned from these data is used to estimate the counterfactual, enabling efficacy assessment of new drugs. We propose future (research) activities to enable "threshold-crossing" for carefully selected products and indications in which RCTs are not feasible. © 2016 The Authors Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

[Thought Experiments in Historiographic Function: Max Weber on Eduard Meyer and the Question of Counterfactuality].

PubMed

Ernst, Florian

2015-03-01

Thought Experiments in Historiographic Function: Max Weber on Eduard Meyer and the Question of Counterfactuality. Max Weber's remarks on his colleague Eduard Meyer regarding counterfactual reasoning in history reflects a significant shift during the Methodenstreit around 1900. The question of attributing historical change strictly to either individual causes or abstract general laws has been tackled in a new way: By counterfactual reasoning a historian should be able to detect the most significant (and therefore meaningful) cause, event, or action for a certain historical outcome. Following Fritz Ringer, this paper argues that given the predominating methods of the natural sciences, scholars of the humanities conducted historical research by counterfactual thought experiments. This way, Weber pried open contemporary narratives (e.g. historicism), and by employing a unique historical causal analysis he made way for refined concepts to offer a model of interpretation that gave hope for a more feasible, practice-oriented approach to historical research than the epistemological discussions had hitherto offered. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Self-esteem and counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Roese, N J; Olson, J M

1993-07-01

Two studies examined the relation between self-esteem and counterfactual thinking (consideration of "might-have-been" alternatives to reality). Ss imagined themselves in scenarios with another actor that resulted in either success or failure. Ss then "undid" the outcome by altering events that preceded the outcome. Following success, high self-esteem (HSE) Ss were more likely than low self-esteem (LSE) Ss to mutate their own actions. Following failure, LSE Ss were more likely than HSE Ss to mutate their own actions. Also, the structure of counterfactuals was influenced by outcome valence but not by self-esteem: Subtractive structures (in which antecedents are removed) were elicited by success, whereas additive structures (in which antecedents are added) were elicited by failure. The importance of the self and individual differences in self-esteem to counterfactual thinking is discussed.

What Bell proved: A reply to Blaylock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maudlin, Tim

2010-01-01

Blaylock argues that the derivation of Bell's inequality requires a hidden assumption, counterfactual definiteness, of which Bell was unaware. A careful analysis of Bell's argument shows that Bell presupposes only locality and the predictions of standard quantum mechanics. Counterfactual definiteness, insofar as it is required, is derived in the course of the argument rather than presumed. Bell's theorem has no direct bearing on the many worlds interpretation not because that interpretation denies counterfactual definiteness but because it does not recover the predictions of standard quantum mechanics.

Counterfactual entanglement and nonlocal correlations in separable states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Oliver

1999-07-01

It is shown that the outcomes of measurements on systems in separable mixed states can be partitioned, via subsequent measurements on a disentangled extraneous system, into subensembles that display the statistics of entangled states. This motivates the introduction of the concept of ``counterfactual'' entanglement, which can be associated with all separable mixed states, including those that are factorable. This type of entanglement gives rise to a kind of postselection-induced Bell inequality violation. The significance of counterfactual entanglement, and its physical implications, are assessed.

Experimental demonstration of counterfactual quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, M.; Wu, G.; Wu, E.; Zeng, H.

2011-04-01

Counterfactual quantum key distribution provides natural advantage against the eavesdropping on the actual signal particles. It can prevent the photon-number-splitting attack when a weak coherent light source is used for the practical implementation. We experimentally realized the counterfactual quantum key distribution in an unbalanced Mach-Zehnder interferometer of 12.5-km-long quantum channel with a high-fringe visibility of 97.4%. According to the security analysis, the system was robust against the photon-number-splitting attack. The article is published in the original.

Tripartite counterfactual quantum cryptography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salih, Hatim

2014-07-01

We show how two distrustful parties, "Bob" and "Charlie," can share a secret key with the help of a mutually trusted "Alice" counterfactually; that is, with no information-carrying particles traveling between any of the three.

Some Remarks on Knowledge and Probability Arising from Counterfactual Quantum Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupacchini, Rossella

Can the mere possibility of a physical phenomenon affect the outcome of an experiment? In fact quantum theory presents us actual physical effects arising from "counterfactuals", that is physical effects brought about by things that might have happened, although they did not happen. How can it be? After a short outline of the quantum-mechanical description of physical reality, the occurrence of such counterfactual effects in quantum theory is illustrated by means of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer. Then these paradoxical phenomena undermining the very notion of physical event and questioning about which knowledge of physical reality can ever be obtained will be analysed using a classical possible-worlds model of knowledge and probability. Finally, a surprising application of counterfactual quantum effects producing a new kind of computing with no classical analogue will be shown.

The effects of belief in good luck and counterfactual thinking on gambling behavior.

PubMed

Kim, So-Ra; Kwon, Young-Sil; Hyun, Myoung-Ho

2015-12-01

One's belief in good luck, and belief that it is a personal trait, could play a crucial role in gambling behavior, and can lead gamblers to have an irrational anticipation to win and to over-generalize their subjective sense of control. And upward counterfactual thinking has been considered to be a factor that offsets those irrational beliefs. This study examined the effects of belief in good luck and of upward counterfactual thinking on gambling behavior. The subjects of the study were 52 college students who had been classified as non-problematic and non-pathological gamblers. They were assigned into one of two groups, distinguished by having either high (n = 25) or low (n = 27) levels of self-perception of luck, as determined by their scores on the Belief in Good Luck (BIGL) Scale. The subjects were assigned to different groups according to their reported experience of upward counterfactual thinking. We found that those who had high BIGL scores spent more money on gambling than those who had low BIGL scores. Moreover, after taking into account the upward counterfactual thinking, the subjects with high BIGL scores showed a dramatic decrease in their expectations of winning. The results indicate that to perceive luck as a personal and internal trait could affect gambling, which is one of the cognitive errors for gambling addiction. On the other hand, given that upward counterfactual thinking plays an important role in reducing cognitive errors, it could act as a protective factor against gambling addiction.

Single dose testosterone administration modulates emotional reactivity and counterfactual choice in healthy males.

PubMed

Wu, Yin; Clark, Luke; Zilioli, Samuele; Eisenegger, Christoph; Gillan, Claire M; Deng, Huihua; Li, Hong

2018-04-01

Testosterone has been implicated in the regulation of emotional responses and risky decision-making. However, the causal effect of testosterone upon emotional decision-making, especially in non-social settings, is still unclear. The present study investigated the role of testosterone in counterfactual thinking: regret is an intense negative emotion that arises from comparison of an obtained outcome from a decision against a better, non-obtained (i.e. counterfactual) alternative. Healthy male participants (n = 64) received a single-dose of 150 mg testosterone Androgel in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, between-participants design. At 180 min post-administration, participants performed the counterfactual thinking task. We applied a computational model derived from behavioral economic principles to uncover latent decision-making mechanisms that may be invisible in simple choice analyses. Our data showed that testosterone increased the ability to use anticipated regret to guide choice behavior, while reducing choice based on expected value. On affective ratings, testosterone increased sensitivity to both obtained and counterfactual outcomes. These findings provide evidence that testosterone causally modulates emotional decision-making, and highlight the role of testosterone in affective sensitivity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Counterfactual Measurements and the Quantum Zeno Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Onofrio; Jiang, Liang

2014-03-01

The apparent paradoxical paradigm of an interaction free measurement (counterfactual measurement) of the presence of a classical or quantum object without any scattering or absorption of photons is considered in light of the quantum Zeno effect. From one perspective, the counterfactual measurement in principle is consistent with minimizing the interaction between the object and the photon. However, the quantum Zeno effect mandates that repeated interactions with photons (although weakly coupled) are required and necessary to inhibit the coherent evolution of the state of the system. We consider and appraise these seemingly conflicting concepts.

“Counterfactual” quantum protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaidman, L.

2016-05-01

The counterfactuality of recently proposed protocols is analyzed. A definition of “counterfactuality” is offered and it is argued that an interaction-free measurement (IFM) of the presence of an opaque object can be named “counterfactual”, while proposed “counterfactual” measurements of the absence of such objects are not counterfactual. The quantum key distribution protocols which rely only on measurements of the presence of the object are counterfactual, but quantum direct communication protocols are not. Therefore, the name “counterfactual” is not appropriate for recent “counterfactual” protocols which transfer quantum states by quantum direct communication.

Pre- and postselected quantum systems, counterfactual measurements, and consistent histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, O.

1995-06-01

We examine some surprising results that have been obtained for pre- and postselected quantum systems. We show that these results depend on a counterfactual interpretation of the rule of Aharonov, Bergmann, and Lebowitz [Phys. Rev. 134, B1410 (1964)] (the ABL rule) and that this interpretation is not valid in general. We then argue, with the help of the consistent histories interpretation of quantum mechanics, that there is a special class of situations where application of the counterfactual interpretation of the ABL rule can be justified. We then reexamine the aforementioned surprising results.

Counterfactual quantum cryptography network with untrusted relay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuanyuan; Gu, Xuemei; Jiang, Dong; Xie, Ling; Chen, Lijun

2015-07-01

Counterfactual quantum cryptography allows two remote parties to share a secret key even though a physical particle is not in fact transmitted through the quantum channel. In order to extend the scope of counterfactual quantum cryptography, we use an untrusted relay to construct a multi-user network. The implementation issues are discussed to show that the scheme can be realized with current technologies. We also prove the practical security advantages of the scheme by eliminating the probability that an eavesdropper can directly access the signal or an untrusted relay can perform false operations.

Long Ago It Was Meant to Be: The Interplay Between Time, Construal, and Fate Beliefs

PubMed Central

Burrus, Jeremy; Roese, Neal J.

2008-01-01

Fate means that an event was meant to be, that is, predetermined by prior unseen forces. Most people believe in fate, which seems at odds with similarly pervasive beliefs that alternative past actions would have brought about different circumstances (i.e., counterfactual beliefs). Two experiments revealed that construal level accounts for the relative plausibility of fate versus counterfactual explanations. Construal was manipulated in Experiment 1, such that goal pursuits framed in abstract (“why?”) as opposed to concrete (“how?”) terms heightened fate but not counterfactual attributions. Extending this finding, Experiment 2 showed that fate judgments were higher for temporally distant than recent past events, an effect mediated by construal perceptions. Neither counterfactual nor luck judgments varied with temporal distance. These findings help to explain how individuals explain complicated yet meaningful life events while extending the reach of Trope and Liberman’s (2003) construal-level theory. PMID:16861309

Counterfactual and Factual Reflection: The Influence of Past Misdeeds on Future Immoral Behavior.

PubMed

Gaspar, Joseph P; Seabright, Mark A; Reynolds, Scott J; Yam, Kai Chi

2015-01-01

Though the decision to behave immorally is situated within the context of prior immoral behavior, research has provided contradictory insights into this process. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that the effects of prior immoral behavior depend on how individuals think about, or reflect on, their immoral behavior. In Experiment 1, participants who reflected counterfactually on their prior moral lapses morally disengaged (i.e., rationalized) less than participants who reflected factually. In Experiment 2, participants who reflected counterfactually on their prior moral lapses experienced more guilt than those who reflected factually. Finally, in Experiments 3 and 4, participants who reflected counterfactually lied less on unrelated tasks with real monetary stakes than those who reflected factually. Our studies provide important insights into moral rationalization and moral compensation processes and demonstrate the profound influence of reflection in everyday moral life.

The role of counterfactual theory in causal reasoning.

PubMed

Maldonado, George

2016-10-01

In this commentary I review the fundamentals of counterfactual theory and its role in causal reasoning in epidemiology. I consider if counterfactual theory dictates that causal questions must be framed in terms of well-defined interventions. I conclude that it does not. I hypothesize that the interventionist approach to causal inference in epidemiology stems from elevating the randomized trial design to the gold standard for thinking about causal inference. I suggest that instead the gold standard we should use for thinking about causal inference in epidemiology is the thought experiment that, for example, compares an actual disease frequency under one exposure level with a counterfactual disease frequency under a different exposure level (as discussed in Greenland and Robins (1986) and Maldonado and Greenland (2002)). I also remind us that no method should be termed "causal" unless it addresses the effect of other biases in addition to the problem of confounding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The contribution of theory of mind, counterfactual reasoning, and executive function to pre-readers' language comprehension and later reading awareness and comprehension in elementary school.

PubMed

Guajardo, Nicole R; Cartwright, Kelly B

2016-04-01

The current longitudinal study examined the roles of theory of mind, counterfactual reasoning, and executive function in children's pre-reading skills, reading awareness, and reading comprehension. It is the first to examine this set of variables with preschool and school-aged children. A sample of 31 children completed language comprehension, working memory, cognitive flexibility, first-order false belief, and counterfactual reasoning measures when they were 3 to 5 years of age and completed second-order false belief, cognitive flexibility, reading comprehension, and reading awareness measures at 6 to 9 years of age. Results indicated that false belief understanding contributed to phrase and sentence comprehension and reading awareness, whereas cognitive flexibility and counterfactual reasoning accounted for unique variance in reading comprehension. Implications of the results for the development of reading skill are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple chronic health conditions and their link with wealth assets.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Callander, Emily J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Passey, Megan E; Kelly, Simon J; Percival, Richard

2015-04-01

There has been little research on the economic status of those with multiple health conditions, particularly on the relationship between multiple health conditions and wealth. This paper will assess the difference in the value and type of wealth assets held by Australians who have multiple chronic health conditions. Using Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of the 45-64-year-old Australian population in 2009, a counterfactual analysis was undertaken. The actual proportion of people with different numbers of chronic health conditions with any wealth, and the value of this wealth was estimated. This was compared with the counterfactual values had the individuals had no chronic health conditions. There was no change in the proportion of people with one health condition who actually had any wealth, compared to the counterfactual proportion had they had no chronic health conditions. Ninety-four percent of those with four or more health conditions had some accumulated wealth; however, under the counterfactual, 100% would have had some accumulated wealth. There was little change in the value of non-income-producing assets under the counterfactual, regardless of number of health conditions. Those with four or more chronic health conditions had a mean value of $17 000 in income-producing assets; under the counterfactual, the average would have been $78 000. This study has highlighted the variation in the value of wealth according to number of chronic health conditions, and hence the importance of considering multiple morbidities when discussing the relationship between health and wealth. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

The effects of belief in good luck and counterfactual thinking on gambling behavior

PubMed Central

Kim, So-Ra; Kwon, Young-Sil; Hyun, Myoung-Ho

2015-01-01

Background and Aims One’s belief in good luck, and belief that it is a personal trait, could play a crucial role in gambling behavior, and can lead gamblers to have an irrational anticipation to win and to over-generalize their subjective sense of control. And upward counterfactual thinking has been considered to be a factor that offsets those irrational beliefs. This study examined the effects of belief in good luck and of upward counterfactual thinking on gambling behavior. Methods The subjects of the study were 52 college students who had been classified as non-problematic and non-pathological gamblers. They were assigned into one of two groups, distinguished by having either high (n = 25) or low (n = 27) levels of self-perception of luck, as determined by their scores on the Belief in Good Luck (BIGL) Scale. The subjects were assigned to different groups according to their reported experience of upward counterfactual thinking. Results We found that those who had high BIGL scores spent more money on gambling than those who had low BIGL scores. Moreover, after taking into account the upward counterfactual thinking, the subjects with high BIGL scores showed a dramatic decrease in their expectations of winning. Discussion The results indicate that to perceive luck as a personal and internal trait could affect gambling, which is one of the cognitive errors for gambling addiction. On the other hand, given that upward counterfactual thinking plays an important role in reducing cognitive errors, it could act as a protective factor against gambling addiction. PMID:26690618

Comment on ``Counterfactual entanglement and nonlocal correlations in separable states.''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terno, Daniel R.

2001-01-01

The arguments of Cohen [Phys. Rev. A 60, 80 (1999)] against the ``ignorance interpretation'' of mixed states are questioned. The physical arguments are shown to be inconsistent and the supporting example illustrates the opposite of the original statement. The operational difference between two possible definitions of mixed states is exposed and the inadequacy of one of them is stressed.

Quantum nonlocality without counterfactual definiteness?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Muynck, W. M.; de Baere, W.

1990-08-01

Stapp's recent proof of the nonlocality of quantum mechanics is critically discussed. It is demonstrated that in his derivation of the Bell inequalities an extra requirement, over locality, is used, which is tantamount to counterfactual definiteness, and that is not a consequence of locality.

Counterfactual quantum-information transfer without transmitting any physical particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Qi; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Chen, Li; Wang, Hong-Fu; Zhang, Shou

2015-02-01

We demonstrate quantum information can be transferred between two distant participants without any physical particles traveling between them. The key procedure of the counterfactual scheme is to entangle two nonlocal qubits with each other without interaction, so the scheme can also be used to generate nonlocal entanglement counterfactually. We here illustrate the scheme by using flying photon qubits and Rydberg atom qubits assisted by a mesoscopic atomic ensemble. Unlike the typical teleportation, the present scheme can transport an unknown qubit in a nondeterministic manner without prior entanglement sharing or classical communication between the two distant participants.

Counterfactual Definiteness and Bell's Inequality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Karl; Raedt, Hans De; Michielsen, Kristel

Counterfactual definiteness must be used as at least one of the postulates or axioms that are necessary to derive Bell-type inequalities. It is considered by many to be a postulate that is not only commensurate with classical physics (as for example Einstein's special relativity), but also separates and distinguishes classical physics from quantum mechanics. It is the purpose of this paper to show that Bell's choice of mathematical functions and independent variables implicitly includes counterfactual definiteness and reduces the generality of the physics of Bell-type theories so significantly that no meaningful comparison of these theories with actual Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiments can be made.

Tripartite counterfactual entanglement distribution.

PubMed

Chen, Yuanyuan; Gu, Xuemei; Jiang, Dong; Xie, Ling; Chen, Lijun

2015-08-10

We propose two counterfactual schemes for tripartite entanglement distribution without any physical particles travelling through the quantum channel. One scheme arranges three participators to connect with the absorption object by using switch. Using the "chained" quantum Zeno effect, three participators can accomplish the task of entanglement distribution with unique counterfactual interference probability. Another scheme uses Michelson-type interferometer to swap two entanglement pairs such that the photons of three participators are entangled. Moreover, the distance of entanglement distribution is doubled as two distant absorption objects are used. We also discuss the implementation issues to show that the proposed schemes can be realized with current technology.

Counterfactual quantum-information transfer without transmitting any physical particles.

PubMed

Guo, Qi; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Chen, Li; Wang, Hong-Fu; Zhang, Shou

2015-02-12

We demonstrate quantum information can be transferred between two distant participants without any physical particles traveling between them. The key procedure of the counterfactual scheme is to entangle two nonlocal qubits with each other without interaction, so the scheme can also be used to generate nonlocal entanglement counterfactually. We here illustrate the scheme by using flying photon qubits and Rydberg atom qubits assisted by a mesoscopic atomic ensemble. Unlike the typical teleportation, the present scheme can transport an unknown qubit in a nondeterministic manner without prior entanglement sharing or classical communication between the two distant participants.

Confirmation bias in human reinforcement learning: Evidence from counterfactual feedback processing

PubMed Central

Lefebvre, Germain; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne

2017-01-01

Previous studies suggest that factual learning, that is, learning from obtained outcomes, is biased, such that participants preferentially take into account positive, as compared to negative, prediction errors. However, whether or not the prediction error valence also affects counterfactual learning, that is, learning from forgone outcomes, is unknown. To address this question, we analysed the performance of two groups of participants on reinforcement learning tasks using a computational model that was adapted to test if prediction error valence influences learning. We carried out two experiments: in the factual learning experiment, participants learned from partial feedback (i.e., the outcome of the chosen option only); in the counterfactual learning experiment, participants learned from complete feedback information (i.e., the outcomes of both the chosen and unchosen option were displayed). In the factual learning experiment, we replicated previous findings of a valence-induced bias, whereby participants learned preferentially from positive, relative to negative, prediction errors. In contrast, for counterfactual learning, we found the opposite valence-induced bias: negative prediction errors were preferentially taken into account, relative to positive ones. When considering valence-induced bias in the context of both factual and counterfactual learning, it appears that people tend to preferentially take into account information that confirms their current choice. PMID:28800597

Specific effect of a dopamine partial agonist on counterfactual learning: evidence from Gilles de la Tourette syndrome.

PubMed

Salvador, Alexandre; Worbe, Yulia; Delorme, Cécile; Coricelli, Giorgio; Gaillard, Raphaël; Robbins, Trevor W; Hartmann, Andreas; Palminteri, Stefano

2017-07-24

The dopamine partial agonist aripiprazole is increasingly used to treat pathologies for which other antipsychotics are indicated because it displays fewer side effects, such as sedation and depression-like symptoms, than other dopamine receptor antagonists. Previously, we showed that aripiprazole may protect motivational function by preserving reinforcement-related signals used to sustain reward-maximization. However, the effect of aripiprazole on more cognitive facets of human reinforcement learning, such as learning from the forgone outcomes of alternative courses of action (i.e., counterfactual learning), is unknown. To test the influence of aripiprazole on counterfactual learning, we administered a reinforcement learning task that involves both direct learning from obtained outcomes and indirect learning from forgone outcomes to two groups of Gilles de la Tourette (GTS) patients, one consisting of patients who were completely unmedicated and the other consisting of patients who were receiving aripiprazole monotherapy, and to healthy subjects. We found that whereas learning performance improved in the presence of counterfactual feedback in both healthy controls and unmedicated GTS patients, this was not the case in aripiprazole-medicated GTS patients. Our results suggest that whereas aripiprazole preserves direct learning of action-outcome associations, it may impair more complex inferential processes, such as counterfactual learning from forgone outcomes, in GTS patients treated with this medication.

Confirmation bias in human reinforcement learning: Evidence from counterfactual feedback processing.

PubMed

Palminteri, Stefano; Lefebvre, Germain; Kilford, Emma J; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne

2017-08-01

Previous studies suggest that factual learning, that is, learning from obtained outcomes, is biased, such that participants preferentially take into account positive, as compared to negative, prediction errors. However, whether or not the prediction error valence also affects counterfactual learning, that is, learning from forgone outcomes, is unknown. To address this question, we analysed the performance of two groups of participants on reinforcement learning tasks using a computational model that was adapted to test if prediction error valence influences learning. We carried out two experiments: in the factual learning experiment, participants learned from partial feedback (i.e., the outcome of the chosen option only); in the counterfactual learning experiment, participants learned from complete feedback information (i.e., the outcomes of both the chosen and unchosen option were displayed). In the factual learning experiment, we replicated previous findings of a valence-induced bias, whereby participants learned preferentially from positive, relative to negative, prediction errors. In contrast, for counterfactual learning, we found the opposite valence-induced bias: negative prediction errors were preferentially taken into account, relative to positive ones. When considering valence-induced bias in the context of both factual and counterfactual learning, it appears that people tend to preferentially take into account information that confirms their current choice.

Grit and the brain: spontaneous activity of the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex mediates the relationship between the trait grit and academic performance.

PubMed

Wang, Song; Zhou, Ming; Chen, Taolin; Yang, Xun; Chen, Guangxiang; Wang, Meiyun; Gong, Qiyong

2017-03-01

As a personality trait, grit involves the tendency to strive to achieve long-term goals with continual passion and perseverance and plays an extremely crucial role in personal achievement. However, the neural mechanisms of grit remain largely unknown. In this study, we aimed to explore the association between grit and the fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF) in 217 healthy adolescent students using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI). We found that an individual's grit was negatively related to the regional fALFF in the right dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC), which is involved in self-regulation, planning, goal setting and maintenance, and counterfactual thinking for reflecting on past failures. The results persisted even after the effects of general intelligence and the 'big five' personality traits were adjusted for. More importantly, the fALFF of the right DMPFC played a mediating role in the association between grit and academic performance. Overall, these findings reveal regional fALFF as a neural basis of grit and highlight the right DMPFC as a neural link between grit and academic performance. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Functional connectivity between the cerebrum and cerebellum in social cognition: A multi-study analysis.

PubMed

Van Overwalle, Frank; Mariën, Peter

2016-01-01

This multi-study connectivity analysis explores the functional connectivity of the cerebellum with the cerebrum in social mentalizing, that is, understanding the mind of another person. The analysis covers 5 studies (n=92) involving abstract and complex forms of social mentalizing such as (a) person and group impression formation based on behavioral descriptions and (b) constructing personal counterfactual events (i.e., how the past could have turned out better). The results suggest that cerebellar activity during these social processes reflects a domain-specific mentalizing functionality that is strongly connected with a corresponding mentalizing network in the cerebrum. A significant pattern of connectivity was found linking the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the right temporo-parietal junction (TPJ) with the right posterior cerebellum, and linking the latter with the left TPJ. In addition, in the cerebrum, further connectivity was found through links of the bilateral TPJ with the dorsal mPFC, orbitofrontal cortex and between right and left TPJ. The discussion centers on the role of these cerebro-cerebellar connections in matching external information from the cerebrum with internal predictions generated by the cerebellum. These internal predictions might involve the sequencing of the person's behaviors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Subsecond dopamine fluctuations in human striatum encode superposed error signals about actual and counterfactual reward

PubMed Central

Kishida, Kenneth T.; Saez, Ignacio; Lohrenz, Terry; Witcher, Mark R.; Laxton, Adrian W.; Tatter, Stephen B.; White, Jason P.; Ellis, Thomas L.; Phillips, Paul E. M.; Montague, P. Read

2016-01-01

In the mammalian brain, dopamine is a critical neuromodulator whose actions underlie learning, decision-making, and behavioral control. Degeneration of dopamine neurons causes Parkinson’s disease, whereas dysregulation of dopamine signaling is believed to contribute to psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia, addiction, and depression. Experiments in animal models suggest the hypothesis that dopamine release in human striatum encodes reward prediction errors (RPEs) (the difference between actual and expected outcomes) during ongoing decision-making. Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) imaging experiments in humans support the idea that RPEs are tracked in the striatum; however, BOLD measurements cannot be used to infer the action of any one specific neurotransmitter. We monitored dopamine levels with subsecond temporal resolution in humans (n = 17) with Parkinson’s disease while they executed a sequential decision-making task. Participants placed bets and experienced monetary gains or losses. Dopamine fluctuations in the striatum fail to encode RPEs, as anticipated by a large body of work in model organisms. Instead, subsecond dopamine fluctuations encode an integration of RPEs with counterfactual prediction errors, the latter defined by how much better or worse the experienced outcome could have been. How dopamine fluctuations combine the actual and counterfactual is unknown. One possibility is that this process is the normal behavior of reward processing dopamine neurons, which previously had not been tested by experiments in animal models. Alternatively, this superposition of error terms may result from an additional yet-to-be-identified subclass of dopamine neurons. PMID:26598677

Subsecond dopamine fluctuations in human striatum encode superposed error signals about actual and counterfactual reward.

PubMed

Kishida, Kenneth T; Saez, Ignacio; Lohrenz, Terry; Witcher, Mark R; Laxton, Adrian W; Tatter, Stephen B; White, Jason P; Ellis, Thomas L; Phillips, Paul E M; Montague, P Read

2016-01-05

In the mammalian brain, dopamine is a critical neuromodulator whose actions underlie learning, decision-making, and behavioral control. Degeneration of dopamine neurons causes Parkinson's disease, whereas dysregulation of dopamine signaling is believed to contribute to psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia, addiction, and depression. Experiments in animal models suggest the hypothesis that dopamine release in human striatum encodes reward prediction errors (RPEs) (the difference between actual and expected outcomes) during ongoing decision-making. Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) imaging experiments in humans support the idea that RPEs are tracked in the striatum; however, BOLD measurements cannot be used to infer the action of any one specific neurotransmitter. We monitored dopamine levels with subsecond temporal resolution in humans (n = 17) with Parkinson's disease while they executed a sequential decision-making task. Participants placed bets and experienced monetary gains or losses. Dopamine fluctuations in the striatum fail to encode RPEs, as anticipated by a large body of work in model organisms. Instead, subsecond dopamine fluctuations encode an integration of RPEs with counterfactual prediction errors, the latter defined by how much better or worse the experienced outcome could have been. How dopamine fluctuations combine the actual and counterfactual is unknown. One possibility is that this process is the normal behavior of reward processing dopamine neurons, which previously had not been tested by experiments in animal models. Alternatively, this superposition of error terms may result from an additional yet-to-be-identified subclass of dopamine neurons.

Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences.

PubMed

Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Yet, Barbaros; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Marsh, William

2016-01-01

Inspired by real-world examples from the forensic medical sciences domain, we seek to determine whether a decision about an interventional action could be subject to amendments on the basis of some incomplete information within the model, and whether it would be worthwhile for the decision maker to seek further information prior to suggesting a decision. The method is based on the underlying principle of Value of Information to enhance decision analysis in interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks. The method is applied to two real-world Bayesian network models (previously developed for decision support in forensic medical sciences) to examine the average gain in terms of both Value of Information (average relative gain ranging from 11.45% and 59.91%) and decision making (potential amendments in decision making ranging from 0% to 86.8%). We have shown how the method becomes useful for decision makers, not only when decision making is subject to amendments on the basis of some unknown risk factors, but also when it is not. Knowing that a decision outcome is independent of one or more unknown risk factors saves us from the trouble of seeking information about the particular set of risk factors. Further, we have also extended the assessment of this implication to the counterfactual case and demonstrated how answers about interventional actions are expected to change when some unknown factors become known, and how useful this becomes in forensic medical science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Children with Autism Reason about Other's Intentions: False-Belief and Counterfactual Inferences.

PubMed

Rasga, Célia; Quelhas, Ana Cristina; Byrne, Ruth M J

2017-06-01

We examine false belief and counterfactual reasoning in children with autism with a new change-of-intentions task. Children listened to stories, for example, Anne is picking up toys and John hears her say she wants to find her ball. John goes away and the reason for Anne's action changes-Anne's mother tells her to tidy her bedroom. We asked, 'What will John believe is the reason that Anne is picking up toys?' which requires a false-belief inference, and 'If Anne's mother hadn't asked Anne to tidy her room, what would have been the reason she was picking up toys?' which requires a counterfactual inference. We tested children aged 6, 8 and 10 years. Children with autism made fewer correct inferences than typically developing children at 8 years, but by 10 years there was no difference. Children with autism made fewer correct false-belief than counterfactual inferences, just like typically developing children.

Reinforcement learning and counterfactual reasoning explain adaptive behavior in a changing environment.

PubMed

Zhang, Yunfeng; Paik, Jaehyon; Pirolli, Peter

2015-04-01

Animals routinely adapt to changes in the environment in order to survive. Though reinforcement learning may play a role in such adaptation, it is not clear that it is the only mechanism involved, as it is not well suited to producing rapid, relatively immediate changes in strategies in response to environmental changes. This research proposes that counterfactual reasoning might be an additional mechanism that facilitates change detection. An experiment is conducted in which a task state changes over time and the participants had to detect the changes in order to perform well and gain monetary rewards. A cognitive model is constructed that incorporates reinforcement learning with counterfactual reasoning to help quickly adjust the utility of task strategies in response to changes. The results show that the model can accurately explain human data and that counterfactual reasoning is key to reproducing the various effects observed in this change detection paradigm. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Counterfactual quantum cloning without transmitting any physical particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Qi; Zhai, Shuqin; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Wang, Hong-Fu; Zhang, Shou

2017-11-01

We propose a counterfactual 1 →2 economical phase-covariant cloning scheme. Compared with the existing protocols using flying qubits, the main difference of the presented scheme is that the cloning can be achieved without transmitting the photon between the two parties. In addition, this counterfactual scheme does not need to construct controlled quantum gates to perform joint logical operations between the cloned qubit and the blank copy. We also numerically evaluate the performance of the present scheme in the practical experiment, which shows this cloning scheme can be implemented with a high success of probability and the fidelity is close to the optimal value in the ideal asymptotic limit.

Counterfactual entanglement distribution without transmitting any particles.

PubMed

Guo, Qi; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Chen, Li; Wang, Hong-Fu; Zhang, Shou

2014-04-21

To date, all schemes for entanglement distribution needed to send entangled particles or a separable mediating particle among distant participants. Here, we propose a counterfactual protocol for entanglement distribution against the traditional forms, that is, two distant particles can be entangled with no physical particles travel between the two remote participants. We also present an alternative scheme for realizing the counterfactual photonic entangled state distribution using Michelson-type interferometer and self-assembled GaAs/InAs quantum dot embedded in a optical microcavity. The numerical analysis about the effect of experimental imperfections on the performance of the scheme shows that the entanglement distribution may be implementable with high fidelity.

Counterfactual Thinking and Educational Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Joanna

2017-01-01

Counterfactual thinking refers to imaginative thoughts about what might have been ("if only" or "what if") which are intrinsically linked to self-conscious emotions (regret and guilt) and social judgements (blame). Research in adults suggests that the focus of these thoughts is influenced by order (temporal and causal). Little…

Causal Responsibility and Counterfactuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagnado, David A.; Gerstenberg, Tobias; Zultan, Ro'i

2013-01-01

How do people attribute responsibility in situations where the contributions of multiple agents combine to produce a joint outcome? The prevalence of over-determination in such cases makes this a difficult problem for counterfactual theories of causal responsibility. In this article, we explore a general framework for assigning responsibility in…

Expectations in Counterfactual and Theory of Mind Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Heather J.; Scheepers, Christoph; Sanford, Anthony J.

2010-01-01

During language comprehension, information about the world is exchanged and processed. Two essential ingredients of everyday cognition that are employed during language comprehension are the ability to reason counterfactually, and the ability to understand and predict other peoples' behaviour by attributing independent mental states to them…

Counterfactual Thinking Deficit in Huntington's Disease.

PubMed

Solca, Federica; Poletti, Barbara; Zago, Stefano; Crespi, Chiara; Sassone, Francesca; Lafronza, Annalisa; Maraschi, Anna Maria; Sassone, Jenny; Silani, Vincenzo; Ciammola, Andrea

2015-01-01

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) refers to the generation of mental simulations of alternatives to past events, actions and outcomes. CFT is a pervasive cognitive feature in every-day life and is closely related to decision-making, planning and problem-solving - all of which are cognitive processes linked to unimpaired frontal lobe functioning. Huntington's Disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterised by motor, behavioral and cognitive dysfunctions. Because an impairment in frontal and executive functions has been described in HD, we hypothesised that HD patients may have a CFT impairment. Tests of spontaneous counterfactual thoughts and counterfactual-derived inferences were administered to 24 symptomatic HD patients and 24 age- and sex-matched healthy subjects. Our results show a significant impairment in the spontaneous generation of CFT and low performance on the Counterfactual Inference Test (CIT) in HD patients. Low performance on the spontaneous CFT test significantly correlates with impaired attention abilities, verbal fluency and frontal lobe efficiency, as measured by Trail Making Test - Part A, Phonemic Verbal Fluency Test and FAB. Spontaneous CFT and the use of this type of reasoning are impaired in HD patients. This deficit may be related to frontal lobe dysfunction, which is a hallmark of HD. Because CFT has a pervasive role in patients' daily lives regarding their planning, decision making and problem solving skills, cognitive rehabilitation may improve HD patients' ability to analyse current behaviors and future actions.

Counterfactual Thinking and Anticipated Emotions Enhance Performance in Computer Skills Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Amy Y. C.; Caputi, Peter; Jayasuriya, Rohan; Browne, Jessica L.

2013-01-01

The present study examined the relationship between novice learners' counterfactual thinking (i.e. generating "what if" and "if only" thoughts) about their initial training experience with a computer application and subsequent improvement in task performance. The role of anticipated emotions towards goal attainment in task…

Counterfactual quantum erasure: spooky action without entanglement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salih, Hatim

2018-02-01

We combine the eyebrow-raising quantum phenomena of erasure and counterfactuality for the first time, proposing a simple yet unusual quantum eraser: A distant Bob can decide to erase which-path information from Alice's photon, dramatically restoring interference-without previously shared entanglement, and without Alice's photon ever leaving her laboratory.

Plausibility and Perspective Influence the Processing of Counterfactual Narratives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Heather J.; Jayes, Lewis T.

2018-01-01

Previous research has established that readers' eye movements are sensitive to the difficulty with which a word is processed. One important factor that influences processing is the fit of a word within the wider context, including its plausibility. Here we explore the influence of plausibility in counterfactual language processing. Counterfactuals…

Counterfactual Thinking and Impact Evaluation in Environmental Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferraro, Paul J.

2009-01-01

Impact evaluations assess the degree to which changes in outcomes can be attributed to an intervention rather than to other factors. Such attribution requires knowing what outcomes would have looked like in the absence of the intervention. This counterfactual world can be inferred only indirectly through evaluation designs that control for…

Structure of Child and Adult Past Counterfactuals, and Implications for Acquisition of the Construction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crutchley, Alison

2013-01-01

Children start producing ["necessary and sufficient"] conditionals relatively late. Past counterfactuals (PCFs), for example "If she had shut the cage, the rabbit wouldn't have escaped", are particularly problematic for children; despite evidence of comprehension in the preschool years, children aged eleven are still making…

Counterfactual quantum erasure: spooky action without entanglement.

PubMed

Salih, Hatim

2018-02-01

We combine the eyebrow-raising quantum phenomena of erasure and counterfactuality for the first time, proposing a simple yet unusual quantum eraser: A distant Bob can decide to erase which-path information from Alice's photon, dramatically restoring interference-without previously shared entanglement, and without Alice's photon ever leaving her laboratory.

Using Counterfactual History to Enhance Students' Historical Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Scott L.

2011-01-01

The question "what if?" has been asked by historians for generations. This article explains how history teachers can use students' own what-if questions to enhance their historical knowledge and understanding by offering educators a step-by-step plan for utilizing counterfactual history into their classrooms. Additionally, the author offers a…

Inference and Explanation in Counterfactual Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rips, Lance J.; Edwards, Brian J.

2013-01-01

This article reports results from two studies of how people answer counterfactual questions about simple machines. Participants learned about devices that have a specific configuration of components, and they answered questions of the form "If component X had not operated [failed], would component Y have operated?" The data from these…

Foregone Opportunities: Unveiling Teacher Expectancy Effects in Kindergarten Using Counterfactual Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Hyun Sik

2015-01-01

Drawing on data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class 1998-1999 of the United States, this article evaluates teacher expectancy effects on achievement growth in kindergarten. We attempt to disentangle teacher expectancy effects from omitted variable bias or predictive validity by exploiting counterfactual predictions in…

Improvement of reliability in multi-interferometer-based counterfactual deterministic communication with dissipation compensation.

PubMed

Liu, Chao; Liu, Jinhong; Zhang, Junxiang; Zhu, Shiyao

2018-02-05

The direct counterfactual quantum communication (DCQC) is a surprising phenomenon that quantum information can be transmitted without using any carriers of physical particles. The nested interferometers are promising devices for realizing DCQC as long as the number of interferometers goes to be infinity. Considering the inevitable loss or dissipation in practical experimental interferometers, we analyze the dependence of reliability on the number of interferometers, and show that the reliability of direct communication is being rapidly degraded with the large number of interferometers. Furthermore, we simulate and test this counterfactual deterministic communication protocol with a finite number of interferometers, and demonstrate the improvement of the reliability using dissipation compensation in interferometers.

Counterfactual Thinking and Ethical Decision Making: A New Approach to an Old Problem for Marketing Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Celuch, Kevin; Saxby, Carl

2013-01-01

The present study extends understanding of the self-regulatory aspects of ethical decision making by integrating and exploring relationships among counterfactual thinking, attribution, anticipatory emotions, and ethical decision-making constructs and processes. Specifically, we examine the effects of a manipulation designed to stimulate a…

Coaches' Use of Anticipatory and Counterfactual Regret Messages during Competition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turman, Paul D.

2005-01-01

By focusing on coaches' use of anticipatory and counterfactual regret messages, this investigation examined video footage (i.e., pre-game, halftime, and post-game speeches) of high school football coaches' interaction with their athletes during competition. Participants were 17 high school football coaches who were found to use a combination of…

"If a Lion Could Speak ...": Online Sensitivity to Propositional Truth-Value of Unrealistic Counterfactual Sentences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nieuwland, Mante S.

2013-01-01

People can establish whether a sentence is hypothetically true even if what it describes can never be literally true given the laws of the natural world. Two event-related potential (ERP) experiments examined electrophysiological responses to sentences about unrealistic counterfactual worlds that require people to construct novel conceptual…

Counterfactual Thinking and False Belief: The Role of Executive Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drayton, Stefane; Turley-Ames, Kandi J.; Guajardo, Nicole R.

2011-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to examine further the relationship between counterfactual thinking and false belief (FB) as examined by Guajardo and Turley-Ames ("Cognitive Development, 19" (2004) 53-80). More specifically, the current research examined the importance of working memory and inhibitory control in understanding the relationship…

Understanding of Emotions Based on Counterfactual Reasoning in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Begeer, Sander; De Rosnay, Marc; Lunenburg, Patty; Stegge, Hedy; Terwogt, Mark Meerum

2014-01-01

The understanding of emotions based on counterfactual reasoning was studied in children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorders ("n" = 71) and in typically developing children ("n" = 71), aged 6-12 years. Children were presented with eight stories about two protagonists who experienced the same positive or negative…

Counterfactual quantum erasure: spooky action without entanglement

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We combine the eyebrow-raising quantum phenomena of erasure and counterfactuality for the first time, proposing a simple yet unusual quantum eraser: A distant Bob can decide to erase which-path information from Alice’s photon, dramatically restoring interference—without previously shared entanglement, and without Alice’s photon ever leaving her laboratory. PMID:29515845

Pretense, Counterfactuals, and Bayesian Causal Models: Why What Is Not Real Really Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weisberg, Deena S.; Gopnik, Alison

2013-01-01

Young children spend a large portion of their time pretending about non-real situations. Why? We answer this question by using the framework of Bayesian causal models to argue that pretending and counterfactual reasoning engage the same component cognitive abilities: disengaging with current reality, making inferences about an alternative…

Counterfactual Reasoning: Developing a Sense of "Nearest Possible World"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rafetseder, Eva; Cristi-Vargas, Renate; Perner, Josef

2010-01-01

This study investigated at what point in development 3- to 6-year-old children begin to demonstrate counterfactual reasoning by controlling for fortuitously correct answers that result from basic conditional reasoning. "Basic conditional reasoning" occurs when one applies typical regularities (such as "If 'whenever' it doesn't rain the street is…

Evidence-Based Practices in a Changing World: Reconsidering the Counterfactual in Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemons, Christopher J.; Fuchs, Douglas; Gilbert, Jennifer K.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2014-01-01

Experimental and quasi-experimental designs are used in educational research to establish causality and develop effective practices. These research designs rely on a counterfactual model that, in simple form, calls for a comparison between a treatment group and a control group. Developers of educational practices often assume that the population…

Causal criteria and counterfactuals; nothing more (or less) than scientific common sense.

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V; Goodman, Karen J

2006-05-26

Two persistent myths in epidemiology are that we can use a list of "causal criteria" to provide an algorithmic approach to inferring causation and that a modern "counterfactual model" can assist in the same endeavor. We argue that these are neither criteria nor a model, but that lists of causal considerations and formalizations of the counterfactual definition of causation are nevertheless useful tools for promoting scientific thinking. They set us on the path to the common sense of scientific inquiry, including testing hypotheses (really putting them to a test, not just calculating simplistic statistics), responding to the Duhem-Quine problem, and avoiding many common errors. Austin Bradford Hill's famous considerations are thus both over-interpreted by those who would use them as criteria and under-appreciated by those who dismiss them as flawed. Similarly, formalizations of counterfactuals are under-appreciated as lessons in basic scientific thinking. The need for lessons in scientific common sense is great in epidemiology, which is taught largely as an engineering discipline and practiced largely as technical tasks, making attention to core principles of scientific inquiry woefully rare.

The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play

PubMed Central

Buchsbaum, Daphna; Bridgers, Sophie; Skolnick Weisberg, Deena; Gopnik, Alison

2012-01-01

We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection—a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when they considered counterfactuals about the system and when they engaged in pretend play about it. Counterfactual cognition and causally coherent pretence were also significantly correlated even when age, general cognitive development and executive function were controlled for. These findings link a distinctive human form of childhood play and an equally distinctive human form of causal inference. We speculate that, during human evolution, computations that were initially reserved for solving particularly important ecological problems came to be used much more widely and extensively during the long period of protected immaturity. PMID:22734063

The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play.

PubMed

Buchsbaum, Daphna; Bridgers, Sophie; Skolnick Weisberg, Deena; Gopnik, Alison

2012-08-05

We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection--a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when they considered counterfactuals about the system and when they engaged in pretend play about it. Counterfactual cognition and causally coherent pretence were also significantly correlated even when age, general cognitive development and executive function were controlled for. These findings link a distinctive human form of childhood play and an equally distinctive human form of causal inference. We speculate that, during human evolution, computations that were initially reserved for solving particularly important ecological problems came to be used much more widely and extensively during the long period of protected immaturity.

Causal conditionals and counterfactuals

PubMed Central

Frosch, Caren A.; Byrne, Ruth M.J.

2012-01-01

Causal counterfactuals e.g., ‘if the ignition key had been turned then the car would have started’ and causal conditionals e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ are understood by thinking about multiple possibilities of different sorts, as shown in six experiments using converging evidence from three different types of measures. Experiments 1a and 1b showed that conditionals that comprise enabling causes, e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ primed people to read quickly conjunctions referring to the possibility of the enabler occurring without the outcome, e.g., ‘the ignition key was turned and the car did not start’. Experiments 2a and 2b showed that people paraphrased causal conditionals by using causal or temporal connectives (because, when), whereas they paraphrased causal counterfactuals by using subjunctive constructions (had…would have). Experiments 3a and 3b showed that people made different inferences from counterfactuals presented with enabling conditions compared to none. The implications of the results for alternative theories of conditionals are discussed. PMID:22858874

Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Decisions: The Role of Counterfactual Thought in the Experience of Regret and Disappointment.

PubMed

Zeelenberg; van Dijk WW; van der Pligt J; Manstead; van Empelen P; Reinderman

1998-08-01

Regret and disappointment are emotions that can be experienced in response to an unfavorable outcome of a decision. Previous research suggests that both emotions are related to the process of counterfactual thinking. The present research extends this idea by combining it with ideas from regret and disappointment theory. The results show that regret is related to behavior-focused counterfactual thought in which the decision-maker's own actions are changed, whereas disappointment is related to situation-focused counterfactual thought in which aspects of the situation are changed. In Study 1 participants (N = 130) were asked to recall an autobiographical episode of either a regretful or a disappointing event. When asked to undo this event, regret participants predominantly changed their own actions, whereas disappointment participants predominantly changed aspects of the situation. In Study 2 all participants (N = 50) read a scenario in which a person experiences a negative event. Participants who were instructed to undo the event by changing the person's actions reported more regret than disappointment, while participants who were instructed to undo the event by changing aspects of the situation reported more disappointment than regret. Study 3 (N = 140) replicated the findings from Study 2 with a different scenario, and a design in which regret and disappointment were measured between rather than within subjects. In the discussion we address the relation among counterfactual thinking, attributions and affective reactions to decision outcomes, and the implications for decision research. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

Counterfactual Thinking Deficit in Huntington’s Disease

PubMed Central

Solca, Federica; Poletti, Barbara; Zago, Stefano; Crespi, Chiara; Sassone, Francesca; Lafronza, Annalisa; Maraschi, Anna Maria; Sassone, Jenny; Silani, Vincenzo; Ciammola, Andrea

2015-01-01

Background and Objective Counterfactual thinking (CFT) refers to the generation of mental simulations of alternatives to past events, actions and outcomes. CFT is a pervasive cognitive feature in every-day life and is closely related to decision-making, planning and problem-solving – all of which are cognitive processes linked to unimpaired frontal lobe functioning. Huntington’s Disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterised by motor, behavioral and cognitive dysfunctions. Because an impairment in frontal and executive functions has been described in HD, we hypothesised that HD patients may have a CFT impairment. Methods Tests of spontaneous counterfactual thoughts and counterfactual-derived inferences were administered to 24 symptomatic HD patients and 24 age- and sex-matched healthy subjects. Results Our results show a significant impairment in the spontaneous generation of CFT and low performance on the Counterfactual Inference Test (CIT) in HD patients. Low performance on the spontaneous CFT test significantly correlates with impaired attention abilities, verbal fluency and frontal lobe efficiency, as measured by Trail Making Test – Part A, Phonemic Verbal Fluency Test and FAB. Conclusions Spontaneous CFT and the use of this type of reasoning are impaired in HD patients. This deficit may be related to frontal lobe dysfunction, which is a hallmark of HD. Because CFT has a pervasive role in patients’ daily lives regarding their planning, decision making and problem solving skills, cognitive rehabilitation may improve HD patients’ ability to analyse current behaviors and future actions. PMID:26070155

Continuity for children after guardianship versus adoption with kin: Approximating the right counterfactual.

PubMed

Rolock, Nancy; White, Kevin R

2017-10-01

Over the past two decades there has been a rapid increase in the number of children and youth living in guardianship and adoptive homes who were previously in foster care. Further, previous studies compared outcomes for children in guardianship homes to those for children in adoptive homes, despite the fact that many factors likely affect the selection of foster youth into different types of permanent placements. This study examined two counterfactuals for guardianship as a permanent placement type: adoption only and adoption or long-term-fostercare (A+LTFC). Longitudinal outcomes were tracked for children who exited foster care with relatives through guardianship (N=4,884) or adoption (N=12,163), as well as children in long-term foster care with relatives (N=4,840). Propensity scores were used to match children on key indicators. In the matched sample of guardianship versus adoption cases only, children who exited to guardianship were more likely to experience discontinuity than children who exited through adoption, 11% vs. 6% respectively. However, when guardianship was compared to the combination of adoption or long-term foster care, children in guardianship experienced the same proportion of discontinuity, 11% vs. 11% respectively. These results suggest that simply matching guardianship to adoption without taking into account LTFC may be the wrong way to estimate the "what if" counterfactual if children were not discharged to guardianship. Findings also support the use of guardianship as a potential solution for children in LTFC whose caregivers are not planning to adopt. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Helpful Are Error Management and Counterfactual Thinking Instructions to Inexperienced Spreadsheet Users' Training Task Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caputi, Peter; Chan, Amy; Jayasuriya, Rohan

2011-01-01

This paper examined the impact of training strategies on the types of errors that novice users make when learning a commonly used spreadsheet application. Fifty participants were assigned to a counterfactual thinking training (CFT) strategy, an error management training strategy, or a combination of both strategies, and completed an easy task…

Associations among False Belief Understanding, Counterfactual Reasoning, and Executive Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guajardo, Nicole R.; Parker, Jessica; Turley-Ames, Kandi

2009-01-01

The primary purposes of the present study were to clarify previous work on the association between counterfactual thinking and false belief performance to determine (1) whether these two variables are related and (2) if so, whether executive function skills mediate the relationship. A total of 92 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds completed false belief,…

The Effect of Causal Chain Length on Counterfactual Conditional Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beck, Sarah R.; Riggs, Kevin J.; Gorniak, Sarah L.

2010-01-01

We investigated German and Nichols' finding that 3-year-olds could answer counterfactual conditional questions about short causal chains of events, but not long. In four experiments (N = 192), we compared 3- and 4-year-olds' performance on short and long causal chain questions, manipulating whether the child could draw on general knowledge to…

Contextuality, Nonlocality and Counterfactual Arguments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghirardi, Gian Carlo; Wienand, Karl

2009-07-01

In this paper, following an elementary line of thought which somewhat differs from the usual one, we prove once more that any deterministic theory predictively equivalent to quantum mechanics unavoidably exhibits a contextual character. The purpose of adopting this perspective is that of paving the way for a critical analysis of the use of counterfactual arguments when dealing with nonlocal physical processes.

Brief Report: Additive and Subtractive Counterfactual Reasoning of Children with High-Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Begeer, Sander; Terwogt, Mark Meerum; Lunenburg, Patty; Stegge, Hedy

2009-01-01

The development of additive ("If only I had done...") and subtractive ("If only I had not done....") counterfactual reasoning was examined in children with High Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorders (HFASD) (n = 72) and typically developing controls (n = 71), aged 6-12 years. Children were presented four stories where they could generate…

If the Real World Were Irrelevant, so to Speak: The role of propositional truth-value in counterfactual sentence comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nieuwland, Mante S.; Martin, Andrea E.

2012-01-01

Propositional truth-value can be a defining feature of a sentence's relevance to the unfolding discourse, and establishing propositional truth-value in context can be key to successful interpretation. In the current study, we investigate its role in the comprehension of counterfactual conditionals, which describe imaginary consequences of…

Counterfactuals and Causal Models: Introduction to the Special Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sloman, Steven A.

2013-01-01

Judea Pearl won the 2010 Rumelhart Prize in computational cognitive science due to his seminal contributions to the development of Bayes nets and causal Bayes nets, frameworks that are central to multiple domains of the computational study of mind. At the heart of the causal Bayes nets formalism is the notion of a counterfactual, a representation…

Reply to "Comment on `Particle path through a nested Mach-Zehnder interferometer' "

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Robert B.

2018-02-01

While much of the technical analysis in the preceding Comment is correct, in the end it confirms the conclusion reached in my previous work [Phys. Rev. A 94, 032115 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevA.94.032115]: A consistent histories analysis provides no support for the claim of counterfactual quantum communication put forward by Salih et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 170502 (2013), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.170502].

Children's Understanding of Behavioral Consequences of Epistemic States: A Comparison of Knowledge, Ignorance, and False Belief.

PubMed

Deneault, Joane

2015-01-01

The author addressed the issue of the simultaneity of false belief and knowledge understanding by investigating children's ability to predict the behavioral consequences of knowledge, ignorance, and false belief. The second aim of the study was to explore the role of counterfactuals in knowledge understanding. Ninety-nine (99) children, age 3-7 years old, completed the unexpected transfer task and a newly designed task in which a protagonist experienced 1 of the following 4 situations: knowing a fact, not knowing a fact, knowing a procedure, and not knowing a procedure. The results showed that factual ignorance was as difficult as false belief for the children, whereas the other conditions were all easier than false belief, suggesting that the well-known lag between ignorance and false belief may be partly methodologically based. The results provide support for a common underlying conceptual system for both knowing and believing, and evidence of the role of counterfactual reasoning in the development of epistemic state understanding. Methodological variations of the new task are proposed for future research.

Causal inference in economics and marketing.

PubMed

Varian, Hal R

2016-07-05

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

The Counterfactual Self-Estimation of Program Participants: Impact Assessment without Control Groups or Pretests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mueller, Christoph Emanuel; Gaus, Hansjoerg; Rech, Joerg

2014-01-01

This article proposes an innovative approach to estimating the counterfactual without the necessity of generating information from either a control group or a before-measure. Building on the idea that program participants are capable of estimating the hypothetical state they would be in had they not participated, the basics of the Roy-Rubin model…

Counterfactually Mediated Emotions: A Developmental Study of Regret and Relief in a Probabilistic Gambling Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Habib, M.; Cassotti, M.; Borst, G.; Simon, G.; Pineau, A.; Houde, O.; Moutier, S.

2012-01-01

Regret and relief are related to counterfactual thinking and rely on comparison processes between what has been and what might have been. In this article, we study the development of regret and relief from late childhood to adulthood (11.2-20.2 years), and we examine how these two emotions affect individuals' willingness to retrospectively…

The excess choice effect: The role of outcome valence and counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Hafner, Rebecca J; White, Mathew P; Handley, Simon J

2016-02-01

Contrary to economic theory, psychological research has demonstrated increased choice can undermine satisfaction. When and why this 'excess choice effect' (ECE) occurs remains unclear. Building on theories of counterfactual thinking we argue the ECE is more likely to occur when people experience counterfactual thought or emotion and that a key trigger is a negative versus positive task outcome. Participants either selected a drink (Experiment 1) or chocolate (Experiment 2) from a limited (6) versus extensive (24) selection (Experiment 1) or were given no choice versus extensive (24) choice (Experiment 2). In both experiments, however, the choice was illusory: Half the participants tasted a 'good' flavour, half a 'bad' flavour. As predicted, extensive choice was only detrimental to satisfaction when participants tasted the 'bad' drink or chocolate, and this was mediated by the experience of counterfactual thought (Experiment 1) or emotion (Experiment 2). When outcomes were positive, participants were similarly satisfied with limited versus extensive and no choice versus extensive choice. Implications for our theoretical understanding of the ECE and for the construction of choice architectures aimed at promoting individual satisfaction and well-being are discussed. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Causal-explanatory pluralism: How intentions, functions, and mechanisms influence causal ascriptions.

PubMed

Lombrozo, Tania

2010-12-01

Both philosophers and psychologists have argued for the existence of distinct kinds of explanations, including teleological explanations that cite functions or goals, and mechanistic explanations that cite causal mechanisms. Theories of causation, in contrast, have generally been unitary, with dominant theories focusing either on counterfactual dependence or on physical connections. This paper argues that both approaches to causation are psychologically real, with different modes of explanation promoting judgments more or less consistent with each approach. Two sets of experiments isolate the contributions of counterfactual dependence and physical connections in causal ascriptions involving events with people, artifacts, or biological traits, and manipulate whether the events are construed teleologically or mechanistically. The findings suggest that when events are construed teleologically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to counterfactual dependence and relatively insensitive to the presence of physical connections, but when events are construed mechanistically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to both counterfactual dependence and physical connections. The conclusion introduces an account of causation, an "exportable dependence theory," that provides a way to understand the contributions of physical connections and teleology in terms of the functions of causal ascriptions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can eyewitnesses correct for external influences on their lineup identifications? The actual/counterfactual assessment paradigm.

PubMed

Charman, Steve D; Wells, Gary L

2008-03-01

Real-world eyewitnesses are often asked whether their lineup responses were affected by various external influences, but it is unknown whether they can accurately answer these types of questions. The witness-report-of-influence mental-correction model is proposed to explain witnesses' reports of influence. Two experiments used a new paradigm (the actual/counterfactual paradigm) to examine eyewitnesses' abilities to report accurately on the influence of lineup manipulations. Eyewitnesses were administered either confirming feedback or no feedback (Experiment 1, n = 103), or a cautionary instruction or no cautionary instruction (Experiment 2, n = 114). Eyewitnesses then gave actual responses (retrospective confidence, view, and attention measures in Experiment 1; identification decision in Experiment 2) as well as counterfactual responses stating how they would have responded in the alternative condition. Results across both studies showed an asymmetric estimation of influence pattern: Eyewitnesses who received an influencing manipulation estimated significantly less of a change in their responses than eyewitnesses who did not receive an influencing manipulation. A 48-hr delay between actual and counterfactual responses did not moderate any effects. Results are explained by witnesses' implicit theories of influence. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Mechanism of bystander-blaming: defensive attribution, counterfactual thinking, and gender.

PubMed

Levy, Inna; Ben-David, Sarah

2015-01-01

Contemporary victimology recognizes that an understanding of the mechanism of blaming requires a comprehensive approach that includes the victim, the offender, and the bystander. However, most of the existing research on blaming focuses on the victim and the offender, ignoring the issue of bystander-blaming. This study highlights the bystander and investigates bystander-blaming by exploring some theoretical explanations, including counterfactual thinking, defensive attribution, and gender differences. The study included 363 young male and female participants, who read vignettes describing the behavior of the victim and the bystander in a rape scenario and answered questions regarding bystander-blaming. The results show that both counterfactual thinking and defensive attribution play a role in bystander-blaming. This article addresses the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. © The Author(s) 2013.

How Children with Autism Reason about Other's Intentions: False-Belief and Counterfactual Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rasga, Célia; Quelhas, Ana Cristina; Byrne, Ruth M. J.

2017-01-01

We examine false belief and counterfactual reasoning in children with autism with a new change-of-intentions task. Children listened to stories, for example, Anne is picking up toys and John hears her say she wants to find her ball. John goes away and the reason for Anne's action changes--Anne's mother tells her to tidy her bedroom. We asked,…

Should Student Employment Be Subsidized? Conditional Counterfactuals and the Outcomes of Work-Study Participation: Appendices A and B. A CAPSEE Working Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott-Clayton, Judith; Minaya, Veronica

2014-01-01

Student employment subsidies are one of the largest types of federal employment subsidies, and one of the oldest forms of student aid. Yet it is unclear whether they help or harm students' long term outcomes. This document contains the appendices to the report "Should Student Employment Be Subsidized? Conditional Counterfactuals and the…

A predictive processing theory of sensorimotor contingencies: Explaining the puzzle of perceptual presence and its absence in synesthesia.

PubMed

Seth, Anil K

2014-01-01

Normal perception involves experiencing objects within perceptual scenes as real, as existing in the world. This property of "perceptual presence" has motivated "sensorimotor theories" which understand perception to involve the mastery of sensorimotor contingencies. However, the mechanistic basis of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery has remained unclear. Sensorimotor theory also struggles to explain instances of perception, such as synesthesia, that appear to lack perceptual presence and for which relevant sensorimotor contingencies are difficult to identify. On alternative "predictive processing" theories, perceptual content emerges from probabilistic inference on the external causes of sensory signals, however, this view has addressed neither the problem of perceptual presence nor synesthesia. Here, I describe a theory of predictive perception of sensorimotor contingencies which (1) accounts for perceptual presence in normal perception, as well as its absence in synesthesia, and (2) operationalizes the notion of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery. The core idea is that generative models underlying perception incorporate explicitly counterfactual elements related to how sensory inputs would change on the basis of a broad repertoire of possible actions, even if those actions are not performed. These "counterfactually-rich" generative models encode sensorimotor contingencies related to repertoires of sensorimotor dependencies, with counterfactual richness determining the degree of perceptual presence associated with a stimulus. While the generative models underlying normal perception are typically counterfactually rich (reflecting a large repertoire of possible sensorimotor dependencies), those underlying synesthetic concurrents are hypothesized to be counterfactually poor. In addition to accounting for the phenomenology of synesthesia, the theory naturally accommodates phenomenological differences between a range of experiential states including dreaming, hallucination, and the like. It may also lead to a new view of the (in)determinacy of normal perception.

Improving credibility and transparency of conservation impact evaluations through the partial identification approach.

PubMed

McConnachie, Matthew M; Romero, Claudia; Ferraro, Paul J; van Wilgen, Brian W

2016-04-01

The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point-estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

A predictive processing theory of sensorimotor contingencies: Explaining the puzzle of perceptual presence and its absence in synesthesia

PubMed Central

Seth, Anil K.

2014-01-01

Normal perception involves experiencing objects within perceptual scenes as real, as existing in the world. This property of “perceptual presence” has motivated “sensorimotor theories” which understand perception to involve the mastery of sensorimotor contingencies. However, the mechanistic basis of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery has remained unclear. Sensorimotor theory also struggles to explain instances of perception, such as synesthesia, that appear to lack perceptual presence and for which relevant sensorimotor contingencies are difficult to identify. On alternative “predictive processing” theories, perceptual content emerges from probabilistic inference on the external causes of sensory signals, however, this view has addressed neither the problem of perceptual presence nor synesthesia. Here, I describe a theory of predictive perception of sensorimotor contingencies which (1) accounts for perceptual presence in normal perception, as well as its absence in synesthesia, and (2) operationalizes the notion of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery. The core idea is that generative models underlying perception incorporate explicitly counterfactual elements related to how sensory inputs would change on the basis of a broad repertoire of possible actions, even if those actions are not performed. These “counterfactually-rich” generative models encode sensorimotor contingencies related to repertoires of sensorimotor dependencies, with counterfactual richness determining the degree of perceptual presence associated with a stimulus. While the generative models underlying normal perception are typically counterfactually rich (reflecting a large repertoire of possible sensorimotor dependencies), those underlying synesthetic concurrents are hypothesized to be counterfactually poor. In addition to accounting for the phenomenology of synesthesia, the theory naturally accommodates phenomenological differences between a range of experiential states including dreaming, hallucination, and the like. It may also lead to a new view of the (in)determinacy of normal perception. PMID:24446823

Counterfactuals and history: Contingency and convergence in histories of science and life.

PubMed

Hesketh, Ian

2016-08-01

This article examines a series of recent histories of science that have attempted to consider how science may have developed in slightly altered historical realities. These works have, moreover, been influenced by debates in evolutionary science about the opposing forces of contingency and convergence in regard to Stephen Jay Gould's notion of "replaying life's tape." The article argues that while the historians under analysis seem to embrace contingency in order to present their counterfactual narratives, for the sake of historical plausibility they are forced to accept a fairly weak role for contingency in shaping the development of science. It is therefore argued that Simon Conway Morris's theory of evolutionary convergence comes closer to describing the restrained counterfactual worlds imagined by these historians of science than does contingency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Competition and Counterfactuals without Confusion: Year 10 Play a Game about the Fall of the Tsarist Empire to Improve Their Causal Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Worth, Paula

2012-01-01

Paula Worth was searching not only for a rigorous question, capable of engendering genuine debate, but also for an engaging and enjoyable activity that would secure GCSE students' substantive knowledge. The answer--or rather the question--lay in counterfactual thinking: a carefully crafted game that she devised, based on the structure of a game by…

`Counterfactual' interpretation of the quantum measurement process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nisticò, Giuseppe

1997-08-01

The question of the determination of the state of the system during a measurement experiment is discussed within quantum theory, as a part of the more general measurement’s problem. I propose a counterfactual interpretation of the measurement process which answers the question from a conceptual point of view. This interpretation turns out to be consistent with the predictions of quantum theory, but it presents difficulties from an operational point of view.

A Defence of the Counterfactual Account of Harm.

PubMed

Purshouse, Craig

2016-05-01

In order to determine whether a particular course of conduct is ethically permissible it is important to have a concept of what it means to be harmed. The dominant theory of harm is the counterfactual account, most famously proposed by Joel Feinberg. This determines whether harm is caused by comparing what actually happened in a given situation with the 'counterfacts' i.e. what would have occurred had the putatively harmful conduct not taken place. If a person's interests are worse off than they otherwise would have been, then a person will be harmed. This definition has recently faced challenges from bioethicists such as John Harris, Guy Kahane and Julian Savulescu who, believing it to be severely flawed, have proposed their own alternative theories of the concept. In this article I will demonstrate that the shortcomings Harris, Kahane and Savulescu believe are present in Feinberg's theory are illusory and that it is their own accounts of harm that are fraught with logical errors. I maintain that the arguments presented to refute Feinberg's theory not only fail to achieve this goal and can be accommodated within the counterfactual account but that they actually undermine the theories presented by their respective authors. The final conclusion will be that these challenges are misconceived and fail to displace the counterfactual theory. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Counterfactual comparison modulates fairness consideration in the mini-ultimatum game: an event-related potentials study.

PubMed

Liang, Jiafeng; Lin, Huiyan; Xiang, Jing; Wu, Hao; Li, Xu; Liang, Hongyu; Zheng, Xue

2015-04-01

Existing literature on the mini-ultimatum game indicates that counterfactual comparison between chosen and unchosen alternatives is of great importance for individual's fairness consideration. However, it is still unclear how counterfactual comparison influences the electrophysiological responses to unfair chosen offers. In conjunction with event-related potentials' (ERPs) technique, the current study aimed to explore the issue by employing a modified version of the mini-ultimatum game where a fixed set of two alternatives (unfair offer vs. fair alternative, unfair vs. hyperfair alternative, unfair offer vs. hyperunfair alternative) was presented before the chosen offer. The behavioral results showed that participants were more likely to accept unfair chosen offers when the unchosen alternative was hyperunfair than when the unchosen alternative was fair or hyperfair. The ERPs results showed that the feedback-related negativity (FRN) elicited by unfair chosen offers was insensitive to the type of unchosen alternative when correcting for possible overlap with other components. In contrast, unfair chosen offers elicited larger P300 amplitudes when the unchosen alternative was hyperunfair than when the unchosen alternative was fair or hyperfair. These findings suggest that counterfactual comparison may take effect at later stages of fairness consideration as reflected by the P300. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

If Oswald Hadn’t Used Counterfactuals, My Robot Would Have

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-05

procedure can be viewed as a concrete implementation of Ramsey’s idea ( Ramsey , 1929), according to which a conditional is accepted if the consequent is...been treated (x′). This fraction cannot be assessed in experimental study, for the simple reason that we cannot re- test patients twice, with and...without treatment. A different question is therefore posed: which counterfactuals can be tested , be it in experimental or observational studies. This

Counterfactual Rydberg gate for photons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Escartin, Juan Carlos; Chamorro-Posada, Pedro

2012-03-01

Quantum computation with photons requires efficient two-photon gates. We put forward a two-photon entangling gate which uses an intermediate atomic system. The system includes a single Rydberg atom which can switch on and off photon absorption in an ensemble using the dipole blockade. The gate is based in a counterfactual protocol. The mere possibility of an absorption that can only occur with a vanishing probability steers the photons to the desired final state.

Counterfactual Assessment of Decoherence in Quantum Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Onofrio; Jiang, Liang

2013-03-01

Quantum Zeno effect occurs when the system is observed for unusually short observation times, t, where the probability of the transition between different quantum states is known to be proportional to t2. This results in a decrease in the probability of transitions between states and the consequent decrease in decoherence. We consider the conditions in which these observations are made counterfactual to assess whether this results in a significant change in decoherence.

Children's Counterfactual Reasoning About Causally Overdetermined Events.

PubMed

Nyhout, Angela; Henke, Lena; Ganea, Patricia A

2017-08-07

In two experiments, one hundred and sixty-two 6- to 8-year-olds were asked to reason counterfactually about events with different causal structures. All events involved overdetermined outcomes in which two different causal events led to the same outcome. In Experiment 1, children heard stories with either an ambiguous causal relation between events or causally unrelated events. Children in the causally unrelated version performed better than chance and better than those in the ambiguous condition. In Experiment 2, children heard stories in which antecedent events were causally connected or causally disconnected. Eight-year-olds performed above chance in both conditions, whereas 6-year-olds performed above chance only in the connected condition. This work provides the first evidence that children can reason counterfactually in causally overdetermined contexts by age 8. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Direct counterfactual communication via quantum Zeno effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Yuan; Li, Yu-Huai; Cao, Zhu; Yin, Juan; Chen, Yu-Ao; Yin, Hua-Lei; Chen, Teng-Yun; Ma, Xiongfeng; Peng, Cheng-Zhi; Pan, Jian-Wei

2017-05-01

Intuition from our everyday lives gives rise to the belief that information exchanged between remote parties is carried by physical particles. Surprisingly, in a recent theoretical study [Salih H, Li ZH, Al-Amri M, Zubairy MS (2013) Phys Rev Lett 110:170502], quantum mechanics was found to allow for communication, even without the actual transmission of physical particles. From the viewpoint of communication, this mystery stems from a (nonintuitive) fundamental concept in quantum mechanics—wave-particle duality. All particles can be described fully by wave functions. To determine whether light appears in a channel, one refers to the amplitude of its wave function. However, in counterfactual communication, information is carried by the phase part of the wave function. Using a single-photon source, we experimentally demonstrate the counterfactual communication and successfully transfer a monochrome bitmap from one location to another by using a nested version of the quantum Zeno effect.

Direct counterfactual communication via quantum Zeno effect.

PubMed

Cao, Yuan; Li, Yu-Huai; Cao, Zhu; Yin, Juan; Chen, Yu-Ao; Yin, Hua-Lei; Chen, Teng-Yun; Ma, Xiongfeng; Peng, Cheng-Zhi; Pan, Jian-Wei

2017-05-09

Intuition from our everyday lives gives rise to the belief that information exchanged between remote parties is carried by physical particles. Surprisingly, in a recent theoretical study [Salih H, Li ZH, Al-Amri M, Zubairy MS (2013) Phys Rev Lett 110:170502], quantum mechanics was found to allow for communication, even without the actual transmission of physical particles. From the viewpoint of communication, this mystery stems from a (nonintuitive) fundamental concept in quantum mechanics-wave-particle duality. All particles can be described fully by wave functions. To determine whether light appears in a channel, one refers to the amplitude of its wave function. However, in counterfactual communication, information is carried by the phase part of the wave function. Using a single-photon source, we experimentally demonstrate the counterfactual communication and successfully transfer a monochrome bitmap from one location to another by using a nested version of the quantum Zeno effect.

Direct counterfactual communication via quantum Zeno effect

PubMed Central

Cao, Yuan; Li, Yu-Huai; Cao, Zhu; Yin, Juan; Chen, Yu-Ao; Yin, Hua-Lei; Chen, Teng-Yun; Ma, Xiongfeng; Peng, Cheng-Zhi; Pan, Jian-Wei

2017-01-01

Intuition from our everyday lives gives rise to the belief that information exchanged between remote parties is carried by physical particles. Surprisingly, in a recent theoretical study [Salih H, Li ZH, Al-Amri M, Zubairy MS (2013) Phys Rev Lett 110:170502], quantum mechanics was found to allow for communication, even without the actual transmission of physical particles. From the viewpoint of communication, this mystery stems from a (nonintuitive) fundamental concept in quantum mechanics—wave-particle duality. All particles can be described fully by wave functions. To determine whether light appears in a channel, one refers to the amplitude of its wave function. However, in counterfactual communication, information is carried by the phase part of the wave function. Using a single-photon source, we experimentally demonstrate the counterfactual communication and successfully transfer a monochrome bitmap from one location to another by using a nested version of the quantum Zeno effect. PMID:28442568

Loss Tolerance in One-Way Quantum Computation via Counterfactual Error Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varnava, Michael; Browne, Daniel E.; Rudolph, Terry

2006-09-01

We introduce a scheme for fault tolerantly dealing with losses (or other “leakage” errors) in cluster state computation that can tolerate up to 50% qubit loss. This is achieved passively using an adaptive strategy of measurement—no coherent measurements or coherent correction is required. Since the scheme relies on inferring information about what would have been the outcome of a measurement had one been able to carry it out, we call this counterfactual error correction.

The felt presence of other minds: Predictive processing, counterfactual predictions, and mentalising in autism.

PubMed

Palmer, Colin J; Seth, Anil K; Hohwy, Jakob

2015-11-01

The mental states of other people are components of the external world that modulate the activity of our sensory epithelia. Recent probabilistic frameworks that cast perception as unconscious inference on the external causes of sensory input can thus be expanded to enfold the brain's representation of others' mental states. This paper examines this subject in the context of the debate concerning the extent to which we have perceptual awareness of other minds. In particular, we suggest that the notion of perceptual presence helps to refine this debate: are others' mental states experienced as veridical qualities of the perceptual world around us? This experiential aspect of social cognition may be central to conditions such as autism spectrum disorder, where representations of others' mental states seem to be selectively compromised. Importantly, recent work ties perceptual presence to the counterfactual predictions of hierarchical generative models that are suggested to perform unconscious inference in the brain. This enables a characterisation of mental state representations in terms of their associated counterfactual predictions, allowing a distinction between spontaneous and explicit forms of mentalising within the framework of predictive processing. This leads to a hypothesis that social cognition in autism spectrum disorder is characterised by a diminished set of counterfactual predictions and the reduced perceptual presence of others' mental states. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Counterfactual simulations applied to SHRP2 crashes: The effect of driver behavior models on safety benefit estimations of intelligent safety systems.

PubMed

Bärgman, Jonas; Boda, Christian-Nils; Dozza, Marco

2017-05-01

As the development and deployment of in-vehicle intelligent safety systems (ISS) for crash avoidance and mitigation have rapidly increased in the last decades, the need to evaluate their prospective safety benefits before introduction has never been higher. Counterfactual simulations using relevant mathematical models (for vehicle dynamics, sensors, the environment, ISS algorithms, and models of driver behavior) have been identified as having high potential. However, although most of these models are relatively mature, models of driver behavior in the critical seconds before a crash are still relatively immature. There are also large conceptual differences between different driver models. The objective of this paper is, firstly, to demonstrate the importance of the choice of driver model when counterfactual simulations are used to evaluate two ISS: Forward collision warning (FCW), and autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Secondly, the paper demonstrates how counterfactual simulations can be used to perform sensitivity analyses on parameter settings, both for driver behavior and ISS algorithms. Finally, the paper evaluates the effect of the choice of glance distribution in the driver behavior model on the safety benefit estimation. The paper uses pre-crash kinematics and driver behavior from 34 rear-end crashes from the SHRP2 naturalistic driving study for the demonstrations. The results for FCW show a large difference in the percent of avoided crashes between conceptually different models of driver behavior, while differences were small for conceptually similar models. As expected, the choice of model of driver behavior did not affect AEB benefit much. Based on our results, researchers and others who aim to evaluate ISS with the driver in the loop through counterfactual simulations should be sure to make deliberate and well-grounded choices of driver models: the choice of model matters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatal opioid poisoning: a counterfactual model to estimate the preventive effect of treatment for opioid use disorder in England.

PubMed

White, Martin; Burton, Robyn; Darke, Shane; Eastwood, Brian; Knight, Jon; Millar, Tim; Musto, Virginia; Marsden, John

2015-08-01

A counterfactual model was used to estimate the number of fatal opioid-related poisonings prevented by public treatment services for opioid use disorder (OUD) in England between April 2008 and March 2011. Patient OUD treatment episode data recorded by the English National Drug Treatment Monitoring System were linked to data on opioid deaths recorded by the Office for National Statistics. The source population was the official estimate of non-medical opioid users (aged 15-64 years; approximately 260 000 each year). The target population was all individuals (aged 15-64 years) treated for OUD in the study period (n = 220 665). The outcome measure was fatal opioid-related poisoning (opioid death). The opioid death rate [per 100 person-years (PY)] and mortality rate ratios (MRR) were computed for study year, age group (15-24, 25-34, 35-64 years) and for three treatment-related states: time spent 'prior to treatment', 'during treatment' and 'after treatment'. Between April 2008 and March 2011, there were 3731 opioid deaths in the study: 741 during treatment (0.20 per 100 PY; referent category); 2722 prior to treatment [0.77 per 100 PY; MRR = 3.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.18-4.44]; and 268 after treatment (0.41 per 100 PY; MRR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.64-2.41). By counterfactual estimation, national OUD treatment services prevented an average of 880 opioid deaths each year (95% CI = 702-1084). Between April 2008 and March 2011, a counterfactual model shows that the English public treatment system for opioid use disorder prevented an average of 880 deaths each year from opioid-related poisoning. Counterfactual models of mortality prevention can be used for outcome and performance monitoring of substance use disorder treatment systems. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Direct counterfactual transmission of a quantum state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zheng-Hong; Al-Amri, M.; Zubairy, M. Suhail

2015-11-01

We show that an unknown quantum state can be transferred with neither quantum nor classical particle traveling in the transmission channel. Our protocol does not require prearranged entangled photon pairs and Bell measurements. By utilizing quantum Zeno effect and counterfactuality, we can entangle and disentangle a photon and an atom by nonlocal interaction. It is shown that quantum information is completely transferred from an atom to photon due to controllable disentanglement processes. There is no need to cross-check the result via classical channels.

Measuring disaster recovery: bouncing back or reaching the counterfactual state?

PubMed

Cheng, Shaoming; Ganapati, Emel; Ganapati, Sukumar

2015-07-01

How should one measure the recovery of a locale from a disaster? The measurement is crucial from a public policy and administration standpoint to determine which places should receive disaster assistance, and it affects the performance evaluation of disaster recovery programmes. This paper compares two approaches to measuring recovery: (i) bouncing back to pre-disaster conditions; and (ii) attaining the counterfactual state. The former centres on returning to normalcy following disaster-induced losses, whereas the latter focuses on attaining the state, using quasi-experimental design, which would have existed if the disaster had not occurred. Both are employed here to assess two housing recovery indicators (total new units and their valuations) in Hurricane Katrina-affected counties (rural and urban). The examination reveals significantly different outcomes for the two approaches: counties have not returned to their pre-disaster housing conditions, but they do exhibit counterfactual recovery. Moreover, rural counties may not be as vulnerable as assumed in the disaster recovery literature. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

Quantum counterfactual communication without a weak trace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arvidsson-Shukur, D. R. M.; Barnes, C. H. W.

2016-12-01

The classical theories of communication rely on the assumption that there has to be a flow of particles from Bob to Alice in order for him to send a message to her. We develop a quantum protocol that allows Alice to perceive Bob's message "counterfactually"; that is, without Alice receiving any particles that have interacted with Bob. By utilizing a setup built on results from interaction-free measurements, we outline a communication protocol whereby the information travels in the opposite direction of the emitted particles. In comparison to previous attempts on such protocols, this one is such that a weak measurement at the message source would not leave a weak trace that could be detected by Alice's receiver. While some interaction-free schemes require a large number of carefully aligned beam splitters, our protocol is realizable with two or more beam splitters. We demonstrate this protocol by numerically solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation for a Hamiltonian that implements this quantum counterfactual phenomenon.

Evaluating Use of Environmental Flows to Aerate Streams by Modelling the Counterfactual Case.

PubMed

Stewardson, Michael J; Skinner, Dominic

2018-03-01

This paper evaluates an experimental environmental flow manipulation by modeling the counterfactual case that no environmental flow was applied. This is an alternate approach to evaluating the effect of an environmental flow intervention when a before-after or control-impact comparison is not possible. In this case, the flow manipulation is a minimum flow designed to prevent hypoxia in a weir on the low-gradient Broken Creek in south-eastern Australia. At low flows, low reaeration rates and high respiration rates associated with elevated organic matter loading in the weir pool can lead to a decline in dissolved oxygen concentrations with adverse consequences both for water chemistry and aquatic biota. Using a one dimensional oxygen balance model fitted to field measurements, this paper demonstrates that increased flow leads to increases in reaeration rates, presumably because of enhanced turbulence and hence mixing in the surface layers. By comparing the observed dissolved oxygen levels with the modeled counterfactual case, we show that the environmental flow was effective in preventing hypoxia.

Experimental Demonstration of Counterfactual Quantum Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang; Ju, Lei; Liang, Xiao-Lei; Tang, Shi-Biao; Tu, Guo-Liang Shen; Zhou, Lei; Peng, Cheng-Zhi; Chen, Kai; Chen, Teng-Yun; Chen, Zeng-Bing; Pan, Jian-Wei

2012-07-01

Quantum effects, besides offering substantial superiority in many tasks over classical methods, are also expected to provide interesting ways to establish secret keys between remote parties. A striking scheme called “counterfactual quantum cryptography” proposed by Noh [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 230501 (2009).PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.103.230501] allows one to maintain secure key distributions, in which particles carrying secret information are seemingly not being transmitted through quantum channels. We have experimentally demonstrated, for the first time, a faithful implementation for such a scheme with an on-table realization operating at telecom wavelengths. To verify its feasibility for extension over a long distance, we have furthermore reported an illustration on a 1 km fiber. In both cases, high visibilities of more than 98% are achieved through active stabilization of interferometers. Our demonstration is crucial as a direct verification of such a remarkable application, and this procedure can become a key communication module for revealing fundamental physics through counterfactuals.

Evaluating Use of Environmental Flows to Aerate Streams by Modelling the Counterfactual Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewardson, Michael J.; Skinner, Dominic

2018-03-01

This paper evaluates an experimental environmental flow manipulation by modeling the counterfactual case that no environmental flow was applied. This is an alternate approach to evaluating the effect of an environmental flow intervention when a before-after or control-impact comparison is not possible. In this case, the flow manipulation is a minimum flow designed to prevent hypoxia in a weir on the low-gradient Broken Creek in south-eastern Australia. At low flows, low reaeration rates and high respiration rates associated with elevated organic matter loading in the weir pool can lead to a decline in dissolved oxygen concentrations with adverse consequences both for water chemistry and aquatic biota. Using a one dimensional oxygen balance model fitted to field measurements, this paper demonstrates that increased flow leads to increases in reaeration rates, presumably because of enhanced turbulence and hence mixing in the surface layers. By comparing the observed dissolved oxygen levels with the modeled counterfactual case, we show that the environmental flow was effective in preventing hypoxia.

Counterfactual and prefactual conditionals.

PubMed

Byrne, Ruth M J; Egan, Suzanne M

2004-06-01

We consider reasoning about prefactual possibilities in the future, for example, "if I were to win the lottery next year I would buy a yacht" and counterfactual possibilities, for example, "if I had won the lottery last year, I would have bought a yacht." People may reason about indicative conditionals, for example, "if I won the lottery I bought a yacht" by keeping in mind a few true possibilities, for example, "I won the lottery and I bought a yacht." They understand counterfactuals by keeping in mind two possibilities, the conjecture, "I won the lottery and I bought a yacht" and the presupposed facts, "I did not win the lottery and I did not buy a yacht." We report the results of three experiments on prefactuals that examine what people judge them to imply, the possibilities they judge to be consistent with them, and the inferences they judge to follow from them. The results show that reasoners keep a single possibility in mind to understand a prefactual.

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

PubMed

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the formulation of causal hypotheses, which will be a basis for all methodological choices. Beyond this step, statistical analysis tools recently developed offer new possibilities to delineate complex relationships, in particular in life course epidemiology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

An ex-post evaluation approach to assess the impacts of accomplished urban structure shift on landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Huang, Junlong; He, Jianhua; Liu, Dianfeng; Li, Chun; Qian, Jing

2018-05-01

Many studies have been conducted to evaluate the effects of different urban structures on landscape connectivity, and most of them rely on the comparison approach or ex-ante scenario analysis. However, we still lack an ex-post method to capture the consequences of accomplished urban structure shift (from monocentric to polycentric), which is guided by the land use planning. To fill this gap, we develop an ex-post evaluation approach which integrates counterfactual analysis and landscape graphs. Counterfactual analysis is combined with cellular automata simulation model, to uncover what the city might look like, if it had continued to expand in a monocentric structure; and the landscape graphs enable us to reveal the possible landscape connectivity in actual and counterfactual scenarios. We select Nanjing city as the study area and 4 target species, to delve into the varying impacts of the urban structure shift on different taxonomic groups. Our case study demonstrates that: (1) the impact of urban structure shift is more relevant to the long disperser; (2) the actual landscape (polycentric) would facilitate the bird's dispersal, while (3) forest mammals have higher connectivity in the counterfactual scenario (monocentric), and the possible reasons are discussed. Finally, we demonstrate that the urban structure shift might not necessarily cause the connectivity decline, on condition that the key connectivity providers are identified by integrating ecological network analysis into the land use planning, and well preserved in the shift. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Counterfactual Quantum Deterministic Key Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng; Wang, Jian; Tang, Chao-Jing

2013-01-01

We propose a new counterfactual quantum cryptography protocol concerning about distributing a deterministic key. By adding a controlled blocking operation module to the original protocol [T.G. Noh, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103 (2009) 230501], the correlation between the polarizations of the two parties, Alice and Bob, is extended, therefore, one can distribute both deterministic keys and random ones using our protocol. We have also given a simple proof of the security of our protocol using the technique we ever applied to the original protocol. Most importantly, our analysis produces a bound tighter than the existing ones.

Analysis of counterfactual quantum key distribution using error-correcting theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan-Bing

2014-10-01

Counterfactual quantum key distribution is an interesting direction in quantum cryptography and has been realized by some researchers. However, it has been pointed that its insecure in information theory when it is used over a high lossy channel. In this paper, we retry its security from a error-correcting theory point of view. The analysis indicates that the security flaw comes from the reason that the error rate in the users' raw key pair is as high as that under the Eve's attack when the loss rate exceeds 50 %.

Contrast class cues and performance facilitation in a hypothesis-testing task: evidence for an iterative counterfactual model.

PubMed

Gale, Maggie; Ball, Linden J

2012-04-01

Hypothesis-testing performance on Wason's (Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 12:129-140, 1960) 2-4-6 task is typically poor, with only around 20% of participants announcing the to-be-discovered "ascending numbers" rule on their first attempt. Enhanced solution rates can, however, readily be observed with dual-goal (DG) task variants requiring the discovery of two complementary rules, one labeled "DAX" (the standard "ascending numbers" rule) and the other labeled "MED" ("any other number triples"). Two DG experiments are reported in which we manipulated the usefulness of a presented MED exemplar, where usefulness denotes cues that can establish a helpful "contrast class" that can stand in opposition to the presented 2-4-6 DAX exemplar. The usefulness of MED exemplars had a striking facilitatory effect on DAX rule discovery, which supports the importance of contrast-class information in hypothesis testing. A third experiment ruled out the possibility that the useful MED triple seeded the correct rule from the outset and obviated any need for hypothesis testing. We propose that an extension of Oaksford and Chater's (European Journal of Cognitive Psychology 6:149-169, 1994) iterative counterfactual model can neatly capture the mechanisms by which DG facilitation arises.

Using counterfactuals to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of controlling biological invasions.

PubMed

McConnachie, Matthew M; van Wilgen, Brian W; Ferraro, Paul J; Forsyth, Aurelia T; Richardson, David M; Gaertner, Mirijam; Cowling, Richard M

2016-03-01

Prioritizing limited conservation funds for controlling biological invasions requires accurate estimates of the effectiveness of interventions to remove invasive species and their cost-effectiveness (cost per unit area or individual). Despite billions of dollars spent controlling biological invasions worldwide, it is unclear whether those efforts are effective, and cost-effective. The paucity of evidence results from the difficulty in measuring the effect of invasive species removal: a researcher must estimate the difference in outcomes (e.g. invasive species cover) between where the removal program intervened and what might have been observed if the program had not intervened. In the program evaluation literature, this is called a counterfactual analysis, which formally compares what actually happened and what would have happened in the absence of an intervention. When program implementation is not randomized, estimating counterfactual outcomes is especially difficult. We show how a thorough understanding of program implementation, combined with a matching empirical design can improve the way counterfactual outcomes are estimated in nonexperimental contexts. As a practical demonstration, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of South Africa's Working for Water program, arguably the world's most ambitious invasive species control program, in removing invasive alien trees from different land use types, across a large area in the Cape Floristic Region. We estimated that the proportion of the treatment area covered by invasive trees would have been 49% higher (5.5% instead of 2.7% of the grid cells occupied) had the program not intervened. Our estimates of cost per hectare to remove invasive species, however, are three to five times higher than the predictions made when the program was initiated. Had there been no control (counter-factual), invasive trees would have spread on untransformed land, but not on land parcels containing plantations or land transformed by agriculture or human settlements. This implies that the program might have prevented a larger area from being invaded if it had focused all of its clearing effort on untransformed land. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical designs, it is possible to better evaluate the impacts of invasive species removal and therefore to learn from past experiences.

Applications of quantum measurement techniques: Counterfactual quantum computation, spin hall effect of light, and atomic-vapor-based photon detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosten, Onur

This dissertation investigates several physical phenomena in atomic and optical physics, and quantum information science, by utilizing various types and techniques of quantum measurements. It is the deeper concepts of these measurements, and the way they are integrated into the seemingly unrelated topics investigated, which binds together the research presented here. The research comprises three different topics: Counterfactual quantum computation, the spin Hall effect of light, and ultra-high-efficiency photon detectors based on atomic vapors. Counterfactual computation entails obtaining answers from a quantum computer without actually running it, and is accomplished by preparing the computer as a whole into a superposition of being activated and not activated. The first experimental demonstration is presented, including the best performing implementation of Grover's quantum search algorithm to date. In addition, we develop new counterfactual computation protocols that enable unconditional and completely deterministic operation. These methods stimulated a debate in the literature, on the meaning of counterfactuality in quantum processes, which we also discuss. The spin Hall effect of light entails tiny spin-dependent displacements, unsuspected until 2004, of a beam of light when it changes propagation direction. The first experimental demonstration of the effect during refraction at an air-glass interface is presented, together with a novel enabling metrological tool relying on the concepts of quantum weak measurements. Extensions of the effect to smoothly varying media are also presented, along with utilization of a time-varying version of the weak measurement techniques. Our approach to ultra-high-efficiency photon detection develops and extends a recent novel non-solid-state scheme for photo-detection based on atomic vapors. This approach is in principle capable of resolving the number of photons in a pulse, can be extended to non-destructive detection of photons, and most importantly is proposed to operate with single-photon detection efficiencies exceeding 99%, ideally without dark counts. Such a detector would have tremendous implications, e.g., for optical quantum information processing. The feasibility of operation of this approach at the desired level is studied theoretically and several promising physical systems are investigated.

Styles of Counterfactual Thoughts in People with and without Signs of Depression.

PubMed

Sarantopoulos Faccioli, Juliana; Waltz Schelini, Patricia

2015-07-27

People in a depressive state frequently believe that things could have happened differently in their lives, which is regarded as counterfactual thought. This study aimed to investigate whether the styles of counterfactual thought shown by people with indicating signs of depression and by people without any of those signs are different. Study participants were 42 adults divided into two groups: those with signs of depression and those without signs of depression. Five stories taken from newspapers and magazines and fictional scenarios were presented to the participants. After reading such stories, participants had to answer questions about how the narrated facts could have been different from what they actually were. Results indicated similar counterfactual thought styles in both groups (with and without depression signs). Most of the thoughts found were categorized as upward, subtractive, self-referent and that modified an aspect referred to action/inaction. A few significant differences between groups were observed, and most of them were obtained through directed modifications, in the last three stories. Some tendencies were shown in the group of people with signs of depression, such as those found for the subtractive category, t(40) = 2.33, p < .05, which can indicate a trend of possible failure in the preparatory function of CT, and in the hetero-referral function, t(40) = 1.97, p < .05, indicating a difficulty in thinking of different forms of action in the future. The removal of negative events may indicate that these experiences are not beneficial to people's survival. These results may indicate some tendencies about how people in depressive states think about past events.

Factual and Counterfactual Action-Outcome Mappings Control Choice between Goal-Directed Actions in Rats.

PubMed

Laurent, Vincent; Balleine, Bernard W

2015-04-20

The capacity to extract causal knowledge from the environment allows us to predict future events and to use those predictions to decide on a course of action. Although evidence of such causal reasoning has long been described, recent evidence suggests that using predictive knowledge to guide decision-making in this way is predicated on reasoning about causes in two quite distinct ways: choosing an action can be based on the interaction between predictive information and the consequences of that action, or, alternatively, actions can be selected based on the consequences that they do not produce. The latter counterfactual reasoning is highly adaptive because it allows us to use information about both present and absent events to guide decision-making. Nevertheless, although there is now evidence to suggest that animals other than humans, including rats and birds, can engage in causal reasoning of one kind or another, there is currently no evidence that they use counterfactual reasoning to guide choice. To assess this question, we gave rats the opportunity to learn new action-outcome relationships, after which we probed the structure of this learning by presenting excitatory and inhibitory cues predicting that the specific outcomes of their actions would either occur or would not occur. Whereas the excitors biased choice toward the action delivering the predicted outcome, the inhibitory cues selectively elevated actions predicting the absence of the inhibited outcome, suggesting that rats encoded the counterfactual action-outcome mappings and were able to use them to guide choice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Counterfactual quantum cryptography based on weak coherent states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Zhen-Qiang; Li, Hong-Wei; Yao, Yao; Zhang, Chun-Mei; Wang, Shuang; Chen, Wei; Guo, Guang-Can; Han, Zheng-Fu

2012-08-01

In the “counterfactual quantum cryptography” scheme [T.-G. Noh, Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.103.230501 103, 230501 (2009)], two legitimate distant peers may share secret-key bits even when the information carriers do not travel in the quantum channel. The security of this protocol with an ideal single-photon source has been proved by Yin [Z.-Q. Yin, H. W. Li, W. Chen, Z. F. Han, and G. C. Guo, Phys. Rev. APLRAAN1050-294710.1103/PhysRevA.82.042335 82, 042335 (2010)]. In this paper, we prove the security of the counterfactual-quantum-cryptography scheme based on a commonly used weak-coherent-laser source by considering a general collective attack. The basic assumption of this proof is that the efficiency and dark-counting rate of a single-photon detector are consistent for any n-photon Fock states. Then through randomizing the phases of the encoding weak coherent states, Eve's ancilla will be transformed into a classical mixture. Finally, the lower bound of the secret-key-bit rate and a performance analysis for the practical implementation are both given.

Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure.

PubMed

Li, Qian; Trivedi, Pravin K

2016-02-01

This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Network modulation during complex syntactic processing

PubMed Central

den Ouden, Dirk-Bart; Saur, Dorothee; Mader, Wolfgang; Schelter, Björn; Lukic, Sladjana; Wali, Eisha; Timmer, Jens; Thompson, Cynthia K.

2011-01-01

Complex sentence processing is supported by a left-lateralized neural network including inferior frontal cortex and posterior superior temporal cortex. This study investigates the pattern of connectivity and information flow within this network. We used fMRI BOLD data derived from 12 healthy participants reported in an earlier study (Thompson, C. K., Den Ouden, D. B., Bonakdarpour, B., Garibaldi, K., & Parrish, T. B. (2010b). Neural plasticity and treatment-induced recovery of sentence processing in agrammatism. Neuropsychologia, 48(11), 3211-3227) to identify activation peaks associated with object-cleft over syntactically less complex subject-cleft processing. Directed Partial Correlation Analysis was conducted on time series extracted from participant-specific activation peaks and showed evidence of functional connectivity between four regions, linearly between premotor cortex, inferior frontal gyrus, posterior superior temporal sulcus and anterior middle temporal gyrus. This pattern served as the basis for Dynamic Causal Modeling of networks with a driving input to posterior superior temporal cortex, which likely supports thematic role assignment, and networks with a driving input to inferior frontal cortex, a core region associated with syntactic computation. The optimal model was determined through both frequentist and Bayesian model selection and turned out to reflect a network with a primary drive from inferior frontal cortex and modulation of the connection between inferior frontal and posterior superior temporal cortex by complex sentence processing. The winning model also showed a substantive role for a feedback mechanism from posterior superior temporal cortex back to inferior frontal cortex. We suggest that complex syntactic processing is driven by word-order analysis, supported by inferior frontal cortex, in an interactive relation with posterior superior temporal cortex, which supports verb argument structure processing. PMID:21820518

Counterfactual statements and weak measurements: an experimental proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mølmer, Klaus

2001-12-01

A recent analysis suggests that weak measurements can be used to give observational meaning to counterfactual reasoning in quantum physics. A weak measurement is predicted to assign a negative unit population to a specific state in an interferometric Gedankenexperiment proposed by Hardy. We propose an experimental implementation with trapped ions of the Gedankenexperiment and of the weak measurement. In our standard quantum mechanical analysis of the proposal no states have negative population, but we identify the registration of a negative population by particles being displaced on average in the direction opposite to a force acting upon them.

The Role of Stage at Diagnosis in Colorectal Cancer Black-White Survival Disparities: A Counterfactual Causal Inference Approach.

PubMed

Valeri, Linda; Chen, Jarvis T; Garcia-Albeniz, Xabier; Krieger, Nancy; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Coull, Brent A

2016-01-01

To date, a counterfactual framework has not been used to study determinants of social inequalities in cancer. Considering the case of colorectal cancer, for which racial/ethnic differences in stage at diagnosis and survival are well documented, we quantify the extent to which black versus white survival disparities would be reduced had disparities in stage at diagnosis been eliminated in a large patient population. We obtained data on colorectal cancer patients (diagnosed between 1992 and 2005 and followed until 2010) from US-SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) cancer registries. We employed a counterfactual approach to estimate the mean survival time up to the 60th month since diagnosis for black colorectal cancer patients had black-white disparities in stage at diagnosis been eliminated. Black patients survive approximately 4.0 [confidence interval (CI), 4.6-3.2] months less than white patients within five years since diagnosis. Had disparities in stage at diagnosis been eliminated, survival disparities decrease to 2.6 (CI, 3.4-1.7) months, an approximately 35% reduction. For patients diagnosed after the age of 65 years, disparities would be halved, while reduction of approximately 30% is estimated for younger patients. Survival disparities would be reduced by approximately 44% for women and approximately 26% for men. Employing a counterfactual approach and allowing for heterogeneities in black-white disparities across patients' characteristics, we give robust evidence that elimination of disparities in stage at diagnosis contributes to a substantial reduction in survival disparities in colorectal cancer. We provide the first evidence in the SEER population that elimination of inequities in stage at diagnosis might lead to larger reductions in survival disparities among elderly and women. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Unique relations between counterfactual thinking and DSM-5 PTSD symptom clusters.

PubMed

Mitchell, Melissa A; Contractor, Ateka A; Dranger, Paula; Shea, M Tracie

2016-05-01

Cognitive models of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) propose that rumination about a trauma may increase particular symptom clusters. One type of rumination, termed counterfactual thinking (CFT), refers to thinking of alternative outcomes for an event. CFT centered on a trauma is thought to increase intrusions, negative alterations in mood and cognitions (NAMC), and marked alterations in arousal and reactivity (AAR). The theorized relations between CFT and specific symptom clusters have not been thoroughly investigated. Also, past work has not evaluated whether the relation is confounded by depressive symptoms, age, gender, or number of traumatic events experienced. The current study examined the unique associations between CFT and PTSD symptom clusters according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (American Psychiatric Association, 2013) in 51 trauma-exposed treatment-seeking individuals. As predicted, CFT was associated with all PTSD symptom clusters. After controlling for common predictors of PTSD symptom severity (i.e., age, depressive symptoms, and number of traumatic life events endorsed), we found CFT to be significantly associated with the intrusion and avoidance symptom clusters but not the AAR or NAMC symptom clusters. Results from the present study provide further support for the role of rumination in specific PTSD symptom clusters above and beyond symptoms of depression, age, and number of traumatic life events endorsed. Future work may consider investigating interventions to reduce rumination in PTSD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Causal premise semantics.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Stefan

2013-08-01

The rise of causality and the attendant graph-theoretic modeling tools in the study of counterfactual reasoning has had resounding effects in many areas of cognitive science, but it has thus far not permeated the mainstream in linguistic theory to a comparable degree. In this study I show that a version of the predominant framework for the formal semantic analysis of conditionals, Kratzer-style premise semantics, allows for a straightforward implementation of the crucial ideas and insights of Pearl-style causal networks. I spell out the details of such an implementation, focusing especially on the notions of intervention on a network and backtracking interpretations of counterfactuals. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Quantum Counterfactual Information Transmission Without a Weak Trace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arvidsson Shukur, David; Barnes, Crispin

The classical theories of communication rely on the assumption that there has to be a flow of particles from Bob to Alice in order for him to send a message to her. We have developed a quantum protocol that allows Alice to perceive Bob's message ``counterfactually''. That is, without Alice receiving any particles that have interacted with Bob. By utilising a setup built on results from interaction-free measurements and the quantum Zeno effect, we outline a communication protocol in which the information travels in the opposite direction of the emitted particles. In comparison to previous attempts on such protocols, this one is such that a weak measurement at the message source would not leave a weak trace that could be detected by Alice's receiver. Whilst some interaction-free schemes require a large number of carefully aligned beam-splitters, our protocol is realisable with two or more beam-splitters. Furthermore, we outline how Alice's obtained classical Fisher information between a weak variable at Bob's laboratory is negligible in our scheme. We demonstrate this protocol by numerically solving the time-dependent Schrödinger Equation (TDSE) for a Hamiltonian that implements this quantum counterfactual phenomenon.

Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

PubMed Central

Howlett, Jonathon R.; Paulus, Martin P.

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate from immediate counterfactual processing biases. Taken together, our results show that hedonic capacity but not trait anxiety affects risk-taking through a mechanism that appears independent of the shape of the subjective utility curve, while hedonic capacity and trait anxiety do not affect the influence of counterfactual outcomes on subjective utility. The results have implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of variable decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. PMID:28588508

Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety.

PubMed

Howlett, Jonathon R; Paulus, Martin P

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate from immediate counterfactual processing biases. Taken together, our results show that hedonic capacity but not trait anxiety affects risk-taking through a mechanism that appears independent of the shape of the subjective utility curve, while hedonic capacity and trait anxiety do not affect the influence of counterfactual outcomes on subjective utility. The results have implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of variable decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making.

[Comparative study of proximal femoral shortening after the third generation of Gamma nail versus proximal femoral nail anti-rotation in treatment of intertrochanteric fracture].

PubMed

Hou, Yu; Yao, Qi; Zhang, Gen'ai; Ding, Lixiang

2018-03-01

To explore the difference of the proximal femoral shortening (PFS) between the third generation of Gamma nail (TGN) and the proximal femoral nail anti-rotation (PFNA) in treating intertrochanteric fracture of femur. The clinical data of 158 patients with intertrochanteric fracture of femur who were treated with TGN internal fixation or PFNA internal fixation between January 2014 and December 2015 were retrospectively analysed. The patients were divided into TGN group (69 cases) and PFNA group (89 cases) according to surgical operation. There was no significant difference in gender, age, bone mineral density, causes of injury, AO/Association for the Study of Internal Fixation (AO/ASIF) classification, accompanied disease, and the time from injury to operation between 2 groups ( P >0.05). The result of fracture reduction was divided into 3 types: positive medial cortex support, neutral position cortex support, and negative medial cortex support according to the method of Chang et al . At 18 months postoperatively, bilateral hip anteroposterior X-ray films were taken to measure horizontal PFS values (marked as X), vertical PFS values (marked as Y), and calculate the total PFS values (marked as Z). The PFS values were divided into 4 grades according to the criteria (≤1.0 mm, 1.0-4.9 mm, 5.0-9.9 mm, and ≥10.0 mm), and the constituent ratio was calculated and compared between 2 groups. The X, Y, and Z values and the collodiaphyseal angles of 2 groups at 18 months postoperatively were compared. The X, Y, and Z values of 2 groups of patients with failed fixation and normal healing within 18 months after operation were recorded and compared. The X, Y, and Z values of 2 groups of the patients with different cortex support types were also compared. There were 34 cases of positive medial cortex support, 30 cases of neutral position cortex support, and 5 cases of negative medial cortex support in TGN group, and there were 45, 33, and 11 cases in PFNA group respectively, showing no significant difference between 2 groups ( Z =-1.06, P =0.29). All patients were followed up 18 months after operation. At 18 months after operation, the constituent ratios of PFS values (X, Y, Z) had significant differences between 2 groups ( P <0.05). The patients of shortening of 1.0-4.9 mm and 5.0-9.9 mm were obviously more in TGN group than in PFNA group; the patients of shortening of ≥10.0 mm were obviously more in PFNA group than in TGN group. There were significant differences in X, Y, and Z values between 2 groups ( P <0.05), but no significant difference of the collodiaphysial angle was found between 2 groups ( t =0.47, P =0.64). Six cases of internal fixation failed in TGN group and PFNA group respectively within 3 months after operation, and there was no significant difference of X, Y, and Z values between failed fixation and normal healing patients within 2 groups ( P >0.05). When the reposition effect was the positive medial cortex support, the X, Y, and Z values were significantly lower in TGN group than in PFNA group ( P <0.05); but no significant difference was found between 2 groups when the reposition effect was the neutral position cortex support or negative medial cortex support ( P >0.05). At 18 months after operation, the X, Y, and Z values of the negative medial cortex support patients were significantly higher than those of the positive medial cortex support or the neutral position cortex support patients within 2 groups ( P <0.05). PFS is a common complication of the intertrochanteric fracture of the femur after internal fixation. During operation, the selection of internal fixation should be based on the results of intraoperative reduction. TGN should be applied to reduce PFS if positive medial cortex support happened.

1-1=Counterfactual: on the potency and significance of quantum non-events.

PubMed

Elitzur, A C; Cohen, E

2016-05-28

We study the unique role played in quantum mechanics by non-events or 'counterfactuals'. Our earlier analysis of 'quantum oblivion' has revealed some subtle stages in the measurement process, which may end up in self-cancellation. To these findings, we now add two insights derived by two time-symmetric interpretations of quantum mechanics. (i) Like all quantum interactions, the non-event is formed by the conjunction of forward-plus-backward-evolving wave functions. (ii) Then, it is another feature of such dual evolutions, namely the involvement of negative masses and energies, that enables Nature to make some events 'unhappen' while leaving causal traces. © 2016 The Author(s).

Counterfactual History is Consistent with Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson, Charmayne; Mickens, Ronald

Counterfactual histories (CFHs) are histories that did not ``happen''. For this concept to be meaningful, CFHs must correspond to states of the physical universe for which none of the laws of physics are violated. We present arguments to show that CFHs are realizable. Several of their critical features are: (i) their past states (histories) are uniquely determined from any given ``present state'' (ii) the future evolution from any given ``present state'' is non-predictable; and (iii) different trajectories, evolving from a given ``present state'' do not communicate with each other. We demonstrate the validity of these propositions by means of a toy universe that has these features. The general conclusion reached is that CFHs may exist.

Analysis of Counterfactual Quantum Certificate Authorization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tian-Yin; Li, Yan-Ping; Zhang, Rui-Ling

2016-12-01

A counterfactual quantum certificate authorization protocol was proposed recently (Shenoy et al., Phys. Rev. A 89, 052307 (20)), in which a trusted third party, Alice, authenticates an entity Bob (e.g., a bank) that a client Charlie wishes to securely transact with. However, this protocol requires a classical authenticated channel between Bob and Charlie to prevent possible attacks from the third party Alice, which is in conflict with the task of certificate authorization in the sense that Bob and Charlie can establish an unconditionally-secure key by a quantum key distribution protocol if there is a classical authenticated channel between them and hence securely transact with each other even without the assistance of the third party Alice.

Counterfactual thinking and emotions: regret and envy learning

PubMed Central

Coricelli, Giorgio; Rustichini, Aldo

2010-01-01

Emotions like regret and envy share a common origin: they are motivated by the counterfactual thinking of what would have happened had we made a different choice. When we contemplate the outcome of a choice we made, we may use the information on the outcome of a choice we did not make. Regret is the purely private comparison between two choices that we could have taken, envy adds to this the information on outcome of choices of others. However, envy has a distinct social component, in that it adds the change in the social ranking that follows a difference in the outcomes. We study the theoretical foundation and the experimental test of this view. PMID:20026462

Semantic Memory Recognition Is Supported by Intrinsic Recollection-Like Processes: "The Butcher on the Bus" Revisited

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waidergoren, Shani; Segalowicz, Judith; Gilboa, Asaf

2012-01-01

Dual-process models suggest that recognition memory is independently supported by recollection and familiarity. Current theories attribute recollection solely to hippocampally mediated episodic memory (EM), and familiarity to both episodic and semantic memory (SM) supported by medial temporal lobe cortex (MTLC) and prefrontal cortex. We tested…

QUICR-learning for Multi-Agent Coordination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agogino, Adrian K.; Tumer, Kagan

2006-01-01

Coordinating multiple agents that need to perform a sequence of actions to maximize a system level reward requires solving two distinct credit assignment problems. First, credit must be assigned for an action taken at time step t that results in a reward at time step t > t. Second, credit must be assigned for the contribution of agent i to the overall system performance. The first credit assignment problem is typically addressed with temporal difference methods such as Q-learning. The second credit assignment problem is typically addressed by creating custom reward functions. To address both credit assignment problems simultaneously, we propose the "Q Updates with Immediate Counterfactual Rewards-learning" (QUICR-learning) designed to improve both the convergence properties and performance of Q-learning in large multi-agent problems. QUICR-learning is based on previous work on single-time-step counterfactual rewards described by the collectives framework. Results on a traffic congestion problem shows that QUICR-learning is significantly better than a Q-learner using collectives-based (single-time-step counterfactual) rewards. In addition QUICR-learning provides significant gains over conventional and local Q-learning. Additional results on a multi-agent grid-world problem show that the improvements due to QUICR-learning are not domain specific and can provide up to a ten fold increase in performance over existing methods.

What If? Paths Not Taken

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logsdon, John M.

2002-01-01

I want to ask all of you to join me for a few minutes in a mental experiment. There is a certain sense of determinism as we review a period of history, like the forty years of U.S. human spaceflight. There is an implicit assumption that there were no alternatives to the way things happened. If you step back even half a step, you know that's not true; that along the way, history could have been very different if different choices had been made, if different events had happened, So I have arbitrarily picked a few situations in those forty years and invite you to ask along with me: "What If things had been different?" This notion of counterfactual history has some legitimacy. I have used it as a class assignment for my students in space policy, asking them to write about what might have occurred if different choices had been made. Dwayne Day, a former student and now a colleague, has suggested a whole symposium on counterfactual space history, and that might be an interesting thing to do someday. As I looked into preparation for this talk, I discovered there is a body of literature on counterfactual history. And, not surprisingly in the Internet age, there are even Web sites devoted to the topic!

Précis of The rational imagination: how people create alternatives to reality.

PubMed

Byrne, Ruth M J

2007-12-01

The human imagination remains one of the last uncharted terrains of the mind. People often imagine how events might have turned out "if only" something had been different. The "fault lines" of reality, those aspects more readily changed, indicate that counterfactual thoughts are guided by the same principles as rational thoughts. In the past, rationality and imagination have been viewed as opposites. But research has shown that rational thought is more imaginative than cognitive scientists had supposed. In The Rational Imagination, I argue that imaginative thought is more rational than scientists have imagined. People exhibit remarkable similarities in the sorts of things they change in their mental representation of reality when they imagine how the facts could have turned out differently. For example, they tend to imagine alternatives to actions rather than inactions, events within their control rather than those beyond their control, and socially unacceptable events rather than acceptable ones. Their thoughts about how an event might have turned out differently lead them to judge that a strong causal relation exists between an antecedent event and the outcome, and their thoughts about how an event might have turned out the same lead them to judge that a weaker causal relation exists. In a simple temporal sequence, people tend to imagine alternatives to the most recent event. The central claim in the book is that counterfactual thoughts are organised along the same principles as rational thought. The idea that the counterfactual imagination is rational depends on three steps: (1) humans are capable of rational thought; (2) they make inferences by thinking about possibilities; and (3) their counterfactual thoughts rely on thinking about possibilities, just as rational thoughts do. The sorts of possibilities that people envisage explain the mutability of certain aspects of mental representations and the immutability of other aspects.

Counterfactual Volcano Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2013-04-01

The historical database of past disasters is a cornerstone of catastrophe risk assessment. Whereas disasters are fortunately comparatively rare, near-misses are quite common for both natural and man-made hazards. The word disaster originally means 'an unfavourable aspect of a star'. Except for astrologists, disasters are no longer perceived fatalistically as pre-determined. Nevertheless, to this day, historical disasters are treated statistically as fixed events, although in reality there is a large luck element involved in converting a near-miss crisis situation into a disaster statistic. It is possible to conceive a stochastic simulation of the past to explore the implications of this chance factor. Counterfactual history is the exercise of hypothesizing alternative paths of history from what actually happened. Exploring history from a counterfactual perspective is instructive for a variety of reasons. First, it is easy to be fooled by randomness and see regularity in event patterns which are illusory. The past is just one realization of a variety of possible evolutions of history, which may be analyzed through a stochastic simulation of an array of counterfactual scenarios. In any hazard context, there is a random component equivalent to dice being rolled to decide whether a near-miss becomes an actual disaster. The fact that there may be no observed disaster over a period of time may belie the occurrence of numerous near-misses. This may be illustrated using the simple dice paradigm. Suppose a dice is rolled every month for a year, and an event is recorded if a six is thrown. There is still an 11% chance of no events occurring during the year. A variety of perils may be used to illustrate the use of near-miss information within a counterfactual disaster analysis. In the domain of natural hazards, near-misses are a notable feature of the threat landscape. Storm surges are an obvious example. Sea defences may protect against most meteorological scenarios. However, if a major storm surge happens to arrive at a high astronomical tide, sea walls may be overtopped and flooding may ensue. In the domain of geological hazards, periods of volcanic unrest may generate precursory signals suggestive of imminent volcanic danger, but without leading to an actual eruption. Near-miss unrest periods provide vital evidence for assessing the dynamics of volcanoes close to eruption. Where the volcano catalogue has been diligently revised to include the maximum amount of information on the phenomenology of unrest periods, dynamic modelling and hazard assessment may be significantly refined. This is illustrated with some topical volcano hazard examples, including Montserrat and Santorini.

Contralateral disconnection of the rat prelimbic cortex and dorsomedial striatum impairs cue-guided behavioral switching

PubMed Central

Baker, Phillip M.

2014-01-01

Switches in reward outcomes or reward-predictive cues are two fundamental ways in which information is used to flexibly shift response patterns. The rat prelimbic cortex and dorsomedial striatum support behavioral flexibility based on a change in outcomes. The present experiments investigated whether these two brain regions are necessary for conditional discrimination performance in which a switch in reward-predictive cues occurs every three to six trials. The GABA agonists baclofen and muscimol infused into the prelimbic cortex significantly impaired performance leading rats to adopt an inappropriate turn strategy. The NMDA receptor antagonist D-AP5 infused into the dorsomedial striatum or prelimbic cortex and dorsomedial striatum contralateral disconnection impaired performance due to a rat failing to switch a response choice for an entire trial block in about two out of 13 test blocks. In an additional study, contralateral disconnection did not affect nonswitch discrimination performance. The results suggest that the prelimbic cortex and dorsomedial striatum are necessary to support cue-guided behavioral switching. The prelimbic cortex may be critical for generating alternative response patterns while the dorsomedial striatum supports the selection of an appropriate response when cue information must be used to flexibly switch response patterns. PMID:25028395

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE PAGES

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.; ...

2018-03-29

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

Counterfactual reasoning in surrogate decision making -- another look.

PubMed

Johansson, Mats; Broström, Linus

2011-06-01

Incompetent patients need to have someone else make decisions on their behalf. According to the Substituted Judgment Standard the surrogate decision maker ought to make the decision that the patient would have made, had he or she been competent. Objections have been raised against this traditional construal of the standard on the grounds that it involves flawed counterfactual reasoning, and amendments have been suggested within the framework of possible worlds semantics. The paper shows that while this approach may circumvent the alleged problem, the way it has so far been elaborated reflects insufficient understanding of the moral underpinnings of the idea of substituted judgment. Proper recognition of these moral underpinnings has potentially far-reaching implications for our normative assumptions about accuracy and objectivity in surrogate decision making.

Partial Measurements and the Realization of Quantum-Mechanical Counterfactuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paraoanu, G. S.

2011-07-01

We propose partial measurements as a conceptual tool to understand how to operate with counterfactual claims in quantum physics. Indeed, unlike standard von Neumann measurements, partial measurements can be reversed probabilistically. We first analyze the consequences of this rather unusual feature for the principle of superposition, for the complementarity principle, and for the issue of hidden variables. Then we move on to exploring non-local contexts, by reformulating the EPR paradox, the quantum teleportation experiment, and the entanglement-swapping protocol for the situation in which one uses partial measurements followed by their stochastic reversal. This leads to a number of counter-intuitive results, which are shown to be resolved if we give up the idea of attributing reality to the wavefunction of a single quantum system.

Eavesdropping on counterfactual quantum key distribution with finite resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xingtong; Zhang, Bo; Wang, Jian; Tang, Chaojing; Zhao, Jingjing; Zhang, Sheng

2014-08-01

A striking scheme called "counterfactual quantum cryptography" gives a conceptually new approach to accomplish the task of key distribution. It allows two legitimate parties to share a secret even though a particle carrying secret information is not, in fact, transmitted through the quantum channel. Since an eavesdropper cannot directly access the entire quantum system of each signal particle, the protocol seems to provide practical security advantages. However, here we propose an eavesdropping method which works on the scheme in a finite key scenario. We show that, for practical systems only generating a finite number of keys, the eavesdropping can obtain all of the secret information without being detected. We also present a improved protocol as a countermeasure against this attack.

Beverage purchases from stores in Mexico under the excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages: observational study.

PubMed

Colchero, M Arantxa; Popkin, Barry M; Rivera, Juan A; Ng, Shu Wen

2016-01-06

What has been the effect on purchases of beverages from stores in Mexico one year after implementation of the excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages? In this observational study the authors used data on the purchase of beverages in Mexico from January 2012 to December 2014 from an unbalanced panel of 6253 households providing 205 112 observations in 53 cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants. To test whether the post-tax trend in purchases was significantly different from the pretax trend, the authors used a difference in difference fixed effects model, which adjusts for both macroeconomic variables that can affect the purchase of beverages over time, and pre-existing trends. The variables used in the analysis included demographic information on household composition (age and sex of household members) and socioeconomic status (low, middle, and high). The authors compared the predicted volumes (mL/capita/day) of taxed and untaxed beverages purchased in 2014-the observed post-tax period-with the estimated volumes that would have been purchased if the tax had not been implemented (counterfactual) based on pretax trends. Relative to the counterfactual in 2014, purchases of taxed beverages decreased by an average of 6% (-12 mL/capita/day), and decreased at an increasing rate up to a 12% decline by December 2014. All three socioeconomic groups reduced purchases of taxed beverages, but reductions were higher among the households of low socioeconomic status, averaging a 9% decline during 2014, and up to a 17% decrease by December 2014 compared with pretax trends. Purchases of untaxed beverages were 4% (36 mL/capita/day) higher than the counterfactual, mainly driven by an increase in purchases of bottled plain water. The tax on sugar sweetened beverages was associated with reductions in purchases of taxed beverages and increases in purchases of untaxed beverages. Continued monitoring is needed to understand purchases longer term, potential substitutions, and health implications. This work was supported by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and by the Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública and the Carolina Population Center. The authors have no competing interests. No additional data are available. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Beverage purchases from stores in Mexico under the excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages: observational study

PubMed Central

Colchero, M Arantxa; Popkin, Barry M; Rivera, Juan A

2016-01-01

Study question What has been the effect on purchases of beverages from stores in Mexico one year after implementation of the excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages? Methods In this observational study the authors used data on the purchase of beverages in Mexico from January 2012 to December 2014 from an unbalanced panel of 6253 households providing 205 112 observations in 53 cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants. To test whether the post-tax trend in purchases was significantly different from the pretax trend, the authors used a difference in difference fixed effects model, which adjusts for both macroeconomic variables that can affect the purchase of beverages over time, and pre-existing trends. The variables used in the analysis included demographic information on household composition (age and sex of household members) and socioeconomic status (low, middle, and high). The authors compared the predicted volumes (mL/capita/day) of taxed and untaxed beverages purchased in 2014—the observed post-tax period—with the estimated volumes that would have been purchased if the tax had not been implemented (counterfactual) based on pretax trends. Study answer and limitations Relative to the counterfactual in 2014, purchases of taxed beverages decreased by an average of 6% (−12 mL/capita/day), and decreased at an increasing rate up to a 12% decline by December 2014. All three socioeconomic groups reduced purchases of taxed beverages, but reductions were higher among the households of low socioeconomic status, averaging a 9% decline during 2014, and up to a 17% decrease by December 2014 compared with pretax trends. Purchases of untaxed beverages were 4% (36 mL/capita/day) higher than the counterfactual, mainly driven by an increase in purchases of bottled plain water. What this study adds The tax on sugar sweetened beverages was associated with reductions in purchases of taxed beverages and increases in purchases of untaxed beverages. Continued monitoring is needed to understand purchases longer term, potential substitutions, and health implications. Funding, competing interests, data sharing This work was supported by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and by the Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública and the Carolina Population Center. The authors have no competing interests. No additional data are available. PMID:26738745

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making.

PubMed

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M; Buckholtz, Joshua W

2016-12-13

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost-benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior.

The Computational Development of Reinforcement Learning during Adolescence

PubMed Central

Palminteri, Stefano; Coricelli, Giorgio; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne

2016-01-01

Adolescence is a period of life characterised by changes in learning and decision-making. Learning and decision-making do not rely on a unitary system, but instead require the coordination of different cognitive processes that can be mathematically formalised as dissociable computational modules. Here, we aimed to trace the developmental time-course of the computational modules responsible for learning from reward or punishment, and learning from counterfactual feedback. Adolescents and adults carried out a novel reinforcement learning paradigm in which participants learned the association between cues and probabilistic outcomes, where the outcomes differed in valence (reward versus punishment) and feedback was either partial or complete (either the outcome of the chosen option only, or the outcomes of both the chosen and unchosen option, were displayed). Computational strategies changed during development: whereas adolescents’ behaviour was better explained by a basic reinforcement learning algorithm, adults’ behaviour integrated increasingly complex computational features, namely a counterfactual learning module (enabling enhanced performance in the presence of complete feedback) and a value contextualisation module (enabling symmetrical reward and punishment learning). Unlike adults, adolescent performance did not benefit from counterfactual (complete) feedback. In addition, while adults learned symmetrically from both reward and punishment, adolescents learned from reward but were less likely to learn from punishment. This tendency to rely on rewards and not to consider alternative consequences of actions might contribute to our understanding of decision-making in adolescence. PMID:27322574

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making

PubMed Central

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M.; Buckholtz, Joshua W.

2016-01-01

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost–benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior. PMID:27911790

Imagining the future: The core episodic simulation network dissociates as a function of timecourse and the amount of simulated information

PubMed Central

Thakral, Preston P.; Benoit, Roland G.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2017-01-01

Neuroimaging data indicate that episodic memory (i.e., remembering specific past experiences) and episodic simulation (i.e., imagining specific future experiences) are associated with enhanced activity in a common set of neural regions, often referred to as the core network. This network comprises the hippocampus, parahippocampal cortex, lateral and medial parietal cortex, lateral temporal cortex, and medial prefrontal cortex. Evidence for a core network has been taken as support for the idea that episodic memory and episodic simulation are supported by common processes. Much remains to be learned about how specific core network regions contribute to specific aspects of episodic simulation. Prior neuroimaging studies of episodic memory indicate that certain regions within the core network are differentially sensitive to the amount of information recollected (e.g., the left lateral parietal cortex). In addition, certain core network regions dissociate as a function of their timecourse of engagement during episodic memory (e.g., transient activity in the posterior hippocampus and sustained activity in the left lateral parietal cortex). In the current study, we assessed whether similar dissociations could be observed during episodic simulation. We found that the left lateral parietal cortex modulates as a function of the amount of simulated details. Of particular interest, while the hippocampus was insensitive to the amount of simulated details, we observed a temporal dissociation within the hippocampus: transient activity occurred in relatively posterior portions of the hippocampus and sustained activity occurred in anterior portions. Because the posterior hippocampal and lateral parietal findings parallel those observed previously during episodic memory, the present results add to the evidence that episodic memory and episodic simulation are supported by common processes. Critically, the present study also provides evidence that regions within the core network support dissociable processes. PMID:28324695

The role of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace fear extinction

PubMed Central

Kwapis, Janine L.; Jarome, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

The extinction of delay fear conditioning relies on a neural circuit that has received much attention and is relatively well defined. Whether this established circuit also supports the extinction of more complex associations, however, is unclear. Trace fear conditioning is a better model of complex relational learning, yet the circuit that supports extinction of this memory has received very little attention. Recent research has indicated that trace fear extinction requires a different neural circuit than delay extinction; trace extinction requires the participation of the retrosplenial cortex, but not the amygdala, as noted in a previous study. Here, we tested the roles of the prelimbic and infralimbic regions of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace and delay fear extinction by blocking NMDA receptors during extinction learning. We found that the prelimbic cortex is necessary for trace, but not for delay fear extinction, whereas the infralimbic cortex is involved in both types of extinction. These results are consistent with the idea that trace fear associations require plasticity in multiple cortical areas for successful extinction. Further, the infralimbic cortex appears to play a role in extinction regardless of whether the animal was initially trained in trace or delay conditioning. Together, our results provide new information about how the neural circuits supporting trace and delay fear extinction differ. PMID:25512576

Nonlocality without counterfactual reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Stefan

2015-11-01

Nonlocal correlations are usually understood through the outcomes of alternative measurements (on two or more parts of a system) that cannot altogether actually be carried out in an experiment. Indeed, a joint input-output — e.g., measurement-setting-outcome — behavior is nonlocal if and only if the outputs for all possible inputs cannot coexist consistently. It has been argued that this counterfactual view is how Bell's inequalities and their violations are to be seen. I propose an alternative perspective which refrains from setting into relation the results of mutually exclusive measurements, but that is based solely on data actually available. My approach uses algorithmic complexity instead of probability and randomness, and implies that nonlocality has consequences similar to those in the probabilistic view. Our view is conceptually simpler than the traditional reasoning.

Bunching at the kink: implications for spending responses to health insurance contracts

PubMed Central

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy

2017-01-01

A large literature in empirical public finance relies on “bunching” to identify a behavioral response to non-linear incentives and to translate this response into an economic object to be used counterfactually. We conduct this type of analysis in the context of prescription drug insurance for the elderly in Medicare Part D, where a kink in the individual’s budget set generates substantial bunching in annual drug expenditure around the famous “donut hole”. We show that different alternative economic models can match the basic bunching pattern, but have very different quantitative implications for the counterfactual spending response to alternative insurance contracts. These findings illustrate the importance of modeling choices in mapping a compelling reduced form pattern into an economic object of interest. PMID:28785121

On Replacing "Quantum Thinking" with Counterfactual Reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narens, Louis

The probability theory used in quantum mechanics is currently being employed by psychologists to model the impact of context on decision. Its event space consists of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and its probability function sometimes violate the law of the finite additivity of probabilities. Results from the quantum mechanics literature indicate that such a "Hilbert space probability theory" cannot be extended in a useful way to standard, finitely additive, probability theory by the addition of new events with specific probabilities. This chapter presents a new kind of probability theory that shares many fundamental algebraic characteristics with Hilbert space probability theory but does extend to standard probability theory by adjoining new events with specific probabilities. The new probability theory arises from considerations about how psychological experiments are related through counterfactual reasoning.

Security of counterfactual quantum cryptography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin Zhenqiang; Li Hongwei; Chen Wei

2010-10-15

Recently, a 'counterfactual' quantum-key-distribution scheme was proposed by T.-G. Noh [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 230501 (2009)]. In this scheme, two legitimate distant peers may share secret keys even when the information carriers are not traveled in the quantum channel. We find that this protocol is equivalent to an entanglement distillation protocol. According to this equivalence, a strict security proof and the asymptotic key bit rate are both obtained when a perfect single-photon source is applied and a Trojan horse attack can be detected. We also find that the security of this scheme is strongly related to not only the bitmore » error rate but also the yields of photons. And our security proof may shed light on the security of other two-way protocols.« less

The counterfactual process in weak values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shikano, Yutaka

2012-11-01

From the viewpoint of mathematics, quantum-mechanical probability seems to be controversial. To resolve this problem, we have reconstructed the Born rule using the weak value. We also discuss its meaning.

Cognitive control and the anterior cingulate cortex: how conflicting stimuli affect attentional control in the rat

PubMed Central

Newman, Lori A.; Creer, David J.; McGaughy, Jill A.

2014-01-01

Converging evidence supports the hypothesis that the prefrontal cortex is critical for cognitive control. One prefrontal subregion, the anterior cingulate cortex, is hypothesized to be necessary to resolve response conflicts, disregard salient distractors and alter behavior in response to the generation of an error. These situations all involve goal-oriented monitoring of performance in order to effectively adjust cognitive processes. Several neuropsychological disorders, e.g., schizophrenia, attention deficit hyperactivity and obsessive compulsive disorder, are accompanied by morphological changes in the anterior cingulate cortex. These changes are hypothesized to underlie the impairments on tasks that require cognitive control found in these subjects. A novel conflict monitoring task was used to assess the effects on cognitive control of excitotoxic lesions to anterior cingulate cortex in rats. Prior to surgery all subjects showed improved accuracy on the second of two consecutive, incongruent trials. Lesions to the anterior cingulate cortex abolished this. Lesioned animals had difficulty in adjusting cognitive control on a trial-by-trial basis regardless of whether cognitive changes were increased or decreased. These results support a role for the anterior cingulate cortex in adjustments in cognitive control. PMID:25051488

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

PubMed

Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie

2012-01-01

Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Pham, Quang Duy; Wilson, David P.; Kerr, Cliff C.; Shattock, Andrew J.; Do, Hoa Mai; Duong, Anh Thuy; Nguyen, Long Thanh; Zhang, Lei

2015-01-01

Introduction Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness. Methods We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY). Results Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300–68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100–54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200–496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447–2,747], US$2,344 [1,843–2,765], and US$248 [201–319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively. Conclusions Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden. PMID:26196290

Scaling-up the use of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy: results and lessons on scalability, costs and programme impact from three local government areas in Sokoto State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Orobaton, Nosa; Austin, Anne M; Abegunde, Dele; Ibrahim, Mohammed; Mohammed, Zainab; Abdul-Azeez, Jumare; Ganiyu, Hakeem; Nanbol, Zwalle; Fapohunda, Bolaji; Beal, Katherine

2016-11-04

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy with 3+ doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) reduces maternal mortality and stillbirths in malaria endemic areas. Between December 2014 and December 2015, a project to scale up IPTp-SP to all pregnant women was implemented in three local government areas (LGA) of Sokoto State, Nigeria. The intervention included community education and mobilization, household distribution of SP, and community health information systems that reminded mothers of upcoming SP doses. Health facility IPTp-SP distribution continued in three intervention (population 661,606) and one counterfactual (population 167,971) LGAs. During the project lifespan, 31,493 pregnant women were eligible for at least one dose of IPTp-SP. Community and facility data on IPTp-SP distribution were collected in all four LGAs. Data from a subset of 9427 pregnant women, who were followed through 42 days postpartum, were analysed to assess associations between SP dosages and newborn status. Nominal cost and expense data in 2015 Nigerian Naira were obtained from expenditure records on the distribution of SP. Eighty-two percent (n = 25,841) of eligible women received one or more doses of IPTp-SP. The SP1 coverage was 95% in the intervention LGAs; 26% in the counterfactual. Measurable SP3+ coverage was 45% in the intervention and 0% in the counterfactual LGAs. The mean number of SP doses in the intervention LGAs was 2.1; 0.4 in the counterfactual. Increased doses of IPTp-SP were associated with linear increases in newborn head circumference and lower odds of stillbirth. Any antenatal care utilization predicted larger newborn head circumference and lower odds of stillbirth. The cost of delivering three doses of SP, inclusive of the cost of medicines, was US$0.93-$1.20. It is feasible, safe, and affordable to scale up the delivery of high impact IPTp-SP interventions in low resource malaria endemic settings, where few women access facility-based maternal health services. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02758353. Registered 29 April 2016, retrospectively registered.

Scaling up family planning in Sierra Leone: A prospective cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Keen, Sarah; Begum, Hashina; Friedman, Howard S; James, Chris D

2017-12-01

Family planning is commonly regarded as a highly cost-effective health intervention with wider social and economic benefits. Yet use of family planning services in Sierra Leone is currently low and 25.0% of married women have an unmet need for contraception. This study aims to estimate the costs and benefits of scaling up family planning in Sierra Leone. Using the OneHealth Tool, two scenarios of scaling up family planning coverage to currently married women in Sierra Leone over 2013-2035 were assessed and compared to a 'no-change' counterfactual. Our costing included direct costs of drugs, supplies and personnel time, programme costs and a share of health facility overhead costs. To monetise the benefits, we projected the cost savings of the government providing five essential social services - primary education, child immunisation, malaria prevention, maternal health services and improved drinking water - in the scale-up scenarios compared to the counterfactual. The total population, estimated at 6.1 million in 2013, is projected to reach 8.3 million by 2035 in the high scenario compared to a counterfactual of 9.6 million. We estimate that by 2035, there will be 1400 fewer maternal deaths and 700 fewer infant deaths in the high scenario compared to the counterfactual. Our modelling suggests that total costs of the family planning programme in Sierra Leone will increase from US$4.2 million in 2013 to US$10.6 million a year by 2035 in the high scenario. For every dollar spent on family planning, Sierra Leone is estimated to save US$2.10 in expenditure on the five selected social sector services over the period. There is a strong investment case for scaling up family planning services in Sierra Leone. The ambitious scale-up scenarios have historical precedent in other sub-Saharan African countries, but the extent to which they will be achieved depends on a commitment from both the government and donors to strengthening Sierra Leone's health system post-Ebola.

Therapy induces widespread reorganization of motor cortex after complete spinal transection that supports motor recovery.

PubMed

Ganzer, Patrick D; Manohar, Anitha; Shumsky, Jed S; Moxon, Karen A

2016-05-01

Reorganization of the somatosensory system and its relationship to functional recovery after spinal cord injury (SCI) has been well studied. However, little is known about the impact of SCI on organization of the motor system. Recent studies suggest that step-training paradigms in combination with spinal stimulation, either electrically or through pharmacology, are more effective than step training alone at inducing recovery and that reorganization of descending corticospinal circuits is necessary. However, simpler, passive exercise combined with pharmacotherapy has also shown functional improvement after SCI and reorganization of, at least, the sensory cortex. In this study we assessed the effect of passive exercise and serotonergic (5-HT) pharmacological therapies on behavioral recovery and organization of the motor cortex. We compared the effects of passive hindlimb bike exercise to bike exercise combined with daily injections of 5-HT agonists in a rat model of complete mid-thoracic transection. 5-HT pharmacotherapy combined with bike exercise allowed the animals to achieve unassisted weight support in the open field. This combination of therapies also produced extensive expansion of the axial trunk motor cortex into the deafferented hindlimb motor cortex and, surprisingly, reorganization within the caudal and even the rostral forelimb motor cortex areas. The extent of the axial trunk expansion was correlated to improvement in behavioral recovery of hindlimbs during open field locomotion, including weight support. From a translational perspective, these data suggest a rationale for developing and optimizing cost-effective, non-invasive, pharmacological and passive exercise regimes to promote plasticity that supports restoration of movement after spinal cord injury. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dysgranular Retrosplenial Cortex Lesions in Rats Disrupt Cross-Modal Object Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hindley, Emma L.; Nelson, Andrew J. D.; Aggleton, John P.; Vann, Seralynne D.

2014-01-01

The retrosplenial cortex supports navigation, with one role thought to be the integration of different spatial cue types. This hypothesis was extended by examining the integration of nonspatial cues. Rats with lesions in either the dysgranular subregion of retrosplenial cortex (area 30) or lesions in both the granular and dysgranular subregions…

Differential Effects of Insular and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Lesions on Risky Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, L.; Bechara, A.; Damasio, H.; Aitken, M. R. F.; Sahakian, B. J.; Robbins, T. W.

2008-01-01

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and insular cortex are implicated in distributed neural circuitry that supports emotional decision-making. Previous studies of patients with vmPFC lesions have focused primarily on decision-making under uncertainty, when outcome probabilities are ambiguous (e.g. the Iowa Gambling Task). It remains unclear…

The Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex in a Model of Traumatic Stress: Fear Inhibition or Contextual Processing?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pennington, Zachary T.; Anderson, Austin S.; Fanselow, Michael S.

2017-01-01

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has consistently appeared altered in post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Although the vmPFC is thought to support the extinction of learned fear responses, several findings support a broader role for this structure in the regulation of fear. To further characterize the relationship between vmPFC…

Decreased ventral anterior cingulate cortex activity is associated with reduced social pain during emotional support.

PubMed

Onoda, Keiichi; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Nakashima, Ken'ichiro; Nittono, Hiroshi; Ura, Mitsuhiro; Yamawaki, Shigeto

2009-01-01

People feel psychological pain when they are excluded, and this pain is often attenuated when emotional support is received. It is therefore likely that a specific neural mechanism underlies the detection of social exclusion. Similarly, specific neural mechanisms may underlie the beneficial effects of emotional support. Although neuroimaging researchers have recently examined the neural basis of social pain, there is presently no agreement as to which part of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is involved in the perception and modulation of social pain. We hypothesized that activity in those brain regions that are associated with social pain would be correlated with decrements in social pain induced by emotional support. To examine the effects of emotional support on social pain caused by exclusion, we conducted an fMRI study in which participants played a virtual ball-tossing game. Participants were initially included and later excluded from the game. In the latter half of the session from which participants were excluded, participants received emotionally supportive text messages. We found that emotional support led to increased activity in the left lateral/medial prefrontal cortices and some temporal regions. Those individuals who experienced greater attenuation of social pain exhibited lower ventral ACC and higher left lateral prefrontal cortex activation. These results suggest that the ventral ACC underlies social pain, and that emotional support enhances prefrontal cortex activity, which in turn may lead to a weakened affective response.

Quantum Transmemetic Intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piotrowski, Edward W.; Sładkowski, Jan

The following sections are included: * Introduction * A Quantum Model of Free Will * Quantum Acquisition of Knowledge * Thinking as a Quantum Algorithm * Counterfactual Measurement as a Model of Intuition * Quantum Modification of Freud's Model of Consciousness * Conclusion * Acknowledgements * References

Associations of social support and stress with postpartum maternal mental health symptoms: Main effects, moderation, and mediation.

PubMed

Schwab-Reese, Laura M; Schafer, Ellen J; Ashida, Sato

2017-07-01

Poor maternal mental health during the postpartum period can have significant effects on the health of mothers, infants, and families. The findings from cross-sectional studies suggest that stress and social support are related to maternal mental health. This study contributes to the literature through the use of longitudinal data, and examines moderation and mediation among these factors. In 2012-2013, mothers completed surveys assessing stress, social support, and depressive and anxiety symptoms following birth (n = 125), and 3 months (n = 110) and 6 months (n = 99) after birth. The authors examined temporal associations, moderation, and mediation of social support on the relationship between stress and postpartum depressive and anxiety symptoms using modified Poisson regression models and the counterfactual approach to mediation. Current levels of stress and social support were associated with depressive and anxiety symptoms, both independently and when considered together at multiple time points. Social support did not strongly moderate or mediate the relationships between stress and maternal mental health. Interventions to reduce current perceptions of stress and increase social support for mothers during the postpartum period may help improve maternal mental health symptoms. Efforts are needed to assess the current needs of mothers continuously.

Improving the past and the future: a temporal asymmetry in hypothetical thinking.

PubMed

Ferrante, Donatella; Girotto, Vittorio; Stragà, Marta; Walsh, Clare

2013-02-01

Current views of hypothetical thinking implicitly assume that the content of imaginary thoughts about the past and future should be the same. Two experiments show that, given the same experienced facts of reality, future imagination may differ from past reconstruction. When participants failed a task, their counterfactual thoughts focused on uncontrollable features of their attempt (e.g., "Things would have been better if the allocated time were longer/if I had better logic skills"). But their prefactual thoughts focused on controllable features of their ensuing endeavor (e.g., "Things will be better next time if I concentrate more/if I use another strategy"). This finding suggests that compared with prefactual thinking, counterfactual thinking may be less subject to reality checks and less likely to serve preparatory goals. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Physical Causation. Phil Dowe, Physical causation (Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction, and Decision Theory), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, pp. ix+224, price US60.00, ISBN: 0-521-78049-7 hbk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausman, Daniel M.

Causation is a frustrating subject. Suppose one begins with some promising idea such as that causation is counterfactual dependence or statistical relevance. One then develops this idea with care and intelligence, revises and improves it to cope with criticisms, and by the time one is finished, sane people will be looking elsewhere. If one wants conclusive reasons to reject the counterfactual theory of causation, one can do no better than to read Lewis' (1986) many postscripts. If one wants the best refutation of a probabilistic theory of causation, then one should read my colleague, Ellery Eells' (1991) magisterial defense. In Physical Causation, Phil Dowe performs the same service for physical process/interaction theories of causation.

Creative brains: designing in the real world†

PubMed Central

Goel, Vinod

2014-01-01

The process of designing artifacts is a creative activity. It is proposed that, at the cognitive level, one key to understanding design creativity is to understand the array of symbol systems designers utilize. These symbol systems range from being vague, imprecise, abstract, ambiguous, and indeterminate (like conceptual sketches), to being very precise, concrete, unambiguous, and determinate (like contract documents). The former types of symbol systems support associative processes that facilitate lateral (or divergent) transformations that broaden the problem space, while the latter types of symbol systems support inference processes facilitating vertical (or convergent) transformations that deepen of the problem space. The process of artifact design requires the judicious application of both lateral and vertical transformations. This leads to a dual mechanism model of design problem-solving comprising of an associative engine and an inference engine. It is further claimed that this dual mechanism model is supported by an interesting hemispheric dissociation in human prefrontal cortex. The associative engine and neural structures that support imprecise, ambiguous, abstract, indeterminate representations are lateralized in the right prefrontal cortex, while the inference engine and neural structures that support precise, unambiguous, determinant representations are lateralized in the left prefrontal cortex. At the brain level, successful design of artifacts requires a delicate balance between the two hemispheres of prefrontal cortex. PMID:24817846

A Novel Role for the Rat Retrosplenial Cortex in Cognitive Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Andrew J. D.; Hindley, Emma L.; Haddon, Josephine E.; Vann, Seralynne D.; Aggleton, John P.

2014-01-01

By virtue of its frontal and hippocampal connections, the retrosplenial cortex is uniquely placed to support cognition. Here, we tested whether the retrosplenial cortex is required for frontal tasks analogous to the Stroop Test, i.e., for the ability to select between conflicting responses and inhibit responding to task-irrelevant cues. Rats first…

Persistent recruitment of somatosensory cortex during active maintenance of hand images in working memory.

PubMed

Galvez-Pol, A; Calvo-Merino, B; Capilla, A; Forster, B

2018-07-01

Working memory (WM) supports temporary maintenance of task-relevant information. This process is associated with persistent activity in the sensory cortex processing the information (e.g., visual stimuli activate visual cortex). However, we argue here that more multifaceted stimuli moderate this sensory-locked activity and recruit distinctive cortices. Specifically, perception of bodies recruits somatosensory cortex (SCx) beyond early visual areas (suggesting embodiment processes). Here we explore persistent activation in processing areas beyond the sensory cortex initially relevant to the modality of the stimuli. Using visual and somatosensory evoked-potentials in a visual WM task, we isolated different levels of visual and somatosensory involvement during encoding of body and non-body-related images. Persistent activity increased in SCx only when maintaining body images in WM, whereas visual/posterior regions' activity increased significantly when maintaining non-body images. Our results bridge WM and embodiment frameworks, supporting a dynamic WM process where the nature of the information summons specific processing resources. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial processing in the auditory cortex of the macaque monkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recanzone, Gregg H.

2000-10-01

The patterns of cortico-cortical and cortico-thalamic connections of auditory cortical areas in the rhesus monkey have led to the hypothesis that acoustic information is processed in series and in parallel in the primate auditory cortex. Recent physiological experiments in the behaving monkey indicate that the response properties of neurons in different cortical areas are both functionally distinct from each other, which is indicative of parallel processing, and functionally similar to each other, which is indicative of serial processing. Thus, auditory cortical processing may be similar to the serial and parallel "what" and "where" processing by the primate visual cortex. If "where" information is serially processed in the primate auditory cortex, neurons in cortical areas along this pathway should have progressively better spatial tuning properties. This prediction is supported by recent experiments that have shown that neurons in the caudomedial field have better spatial tuning properties than neurons in the primary auditory cortex. Neurons in the caudomedial field are also better than primary auditory cortex neurons at predicting the sound localization ability across different stimulus frequencies and bandwidths in both azimuth and elevation. These data support the hypothesis that the primate auditory cortex processes acoustic information in a serial and parallel manner and suggest that this may be a general cortical mechanism for sensory perception.

What pharmacological interventions indicate concerning the role of the perirhinal cortex in recognition memory

PubMed Central

Brown, M.W.; Barker, G.R.I.; Aggleton, J.P.; Warburton, E.C.

2012-01-01

Findings of pharmacological studies that have investigated the involvement of specific regions of the brain in recognition memory are reviewed. The particular emphasis of the review concerns what such studies indicate concerning the role of the perirhinal cortex in recognition memory. Most of the studies involve rats and most have investigated recognition memory for objects. Pharmacological studies provide a large body of evidence supporting the essential role of the perirhinal cortex in the acquisition, consolidation and retrieval of object recognition memory. Such studies provide increasingly detailed evidence concerning both the neurotransmitter systems and the underlying intracellular mechanisms involved in recognition memory processes. They have provided evidence in support of synaptic weakening as a major synaptic plastic process within perirhinal cortex underlying object recognition memory. They have also supplied confirmatory evidence that that there is more than one synaptic plastic process involved. The demonstrated necessity to long-term recognition memory of intracellular signalling mechanisms related to synaptic modification within perirhinal cortex establishes a central role for the region in the information storage underlying such memory. Perirhinal cortex is thereby established as an information storage site rather than solely a processing station. Pharmacological studies have also supplied new evidence concerning the detailed roles of other regions, including the hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex in different types of recognition memory tasks that include a spatial or temporal component. In so doing, they have also further defined the contribution of perirhinal cortex to such tasks. To date it appears that the contribution of perirhinal cortex to associative and temporal order memory reflects that in simple object recognition memory, namely that perirhinal cortex provides information concerning objects and their prior occurrence (novelty/familiarity). PMID:22841990

Effects of bilateral and unilateral locus coeruleus lesions on beam-walking recovery after subsequent unilateral sensorimotor cortex suction-ablation in the rat.

PubMed

Goldstein, L B

1997-01-01

The recovery of beam-walking ability following a unilateral sensorimotor cortex lesion in the rat is hypothesized to be noradrenergically-mediated. We carried out two experiments to further test this hypothesis. In the first experiment, bilateral 6-hydroxydopamine locus coeruleus (LC) lesions or sham LC lesions were made 2 weeks prior to a right sensorimotor cortex suction-ablation lesion or sham cortex lesion. In the second experiment, unilateral left or right LC lesions or sham LC lesions were made 2 weeks prior to a right sensorimotor cortex lesion or sham cortex lesion. Beam-walking recovery was measured over the 12 days following cortex lesioning in each experiment. Bilateral, unilateral left, and unilateral right LC lesions resulted in impaired recovery. These data provide additional support for the hypothesis that beam-walking recovery after sensorimotor cortex injury is, at least in part, noradrenergically mediated.

Quantum Secure Group Communication.

PubMed

Li, Zheng-Hong; Zubairy, M Suhail; Al-Amri, M

2018-03-01

We propose a quantum secure group communication protocol for the purpose of sharing the same message among multiple authorized users. Our protocol can remove the need for key management that is needed for the quantum network built on quantum key distribution. Comparing with the secure quantum network based on BB84, we show our protocol is more efficient and securer. Particularly, in the security analysis, we introduce a new way of attack, i.e., the counterfactual quantum attack, which can steal information by "invisible" photons. This invisible photon can reveal a single-photon detector in the photon path without triggering the detector. Moreover, the photon can identify phase operations applied to itself, thereby stealing information. To defeat this counterfactual quantum attack, we propose a quantum multi-user authorization system. It allows us to precisely control the communication time so that the attack can not be completed in time.

NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECT HETEROGENEITY BY FAMILY INCOME AND DEVELOPMENTAL PERIOD: EVIDENCE FROM A COUNTERFACTUAL MODEL OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION

PubMed Central

Wodtke, Geoffrey T.; Elwert, Felix; Harding, David J.

2016-01-01

Effects of disadvantaged neighborhoods on child educational outcomes likely depend on a family's economic resources and the timing of neighborhood exposures during the course of child development. This study investigates how timing of exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods during childhood versus adolescence affects high school graduation and whether these effects vary across families with different income levels. It follows 6,137 children in the PSID from childhood through adolescence and overcomes methodological problems associated with the joint endogeneity of neighborhood context and family income by adapting novel counterfactual methods—a structural nested mean model estimated via two-stage regression-with-residuals—for time-varying treatments and time-varying effect moderators. Results indicate that exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods, particularly during adolescence, has a strong negative effect on high school graduation, and that this negative effect is more severe for children from poor families. PMID:27017709

Mediation analysis allowing for exposure-mediator interactions and causal interpretation: theoretical assumptions and implementation with SAS and SPSS macros

PubMed Central

Valeri, Linda; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2012-01-01

Mediation analysis is a useful and widely employed approach to studies in the field of psychology and in the social and biomedical sciences. The contributions of this paper are several-fold. First we seek to bring the developments in mediation analysis for non linear models within the counterfactual framework to the psychology audience in an accessible format and compare the sorts of inferences about mediation that are possible in the presence of exposure-mediator interaction when using a counterfactual versus the standard statistical approach. Second, the work by VanderWeele and Vansteelandt (2009, 2010) is extended here to allow for dichotomous mediators and count outcomes. Third, we provide SAS and SPSS macros to implement all of these mediation analysis techniques automatically and we compare the types of inferences about mediation that are allowed by a variety of software macros. PMID:23379553

Mediation analysis allowing for exposure-mediator interactions and causal interpretation: theoretical assumptions and implementation with SAS and SPSS macros.

PubMed

Valeri, Linda; Vanderweele, Tyler J

2013-06-01

Mediation analysis is a useful and widely employed approach to studies in the field of psychology and in the social and biomedical sciences. The contributions of this article are several-fold. First we seek to bring the developments in mediation analysis for nonlinear models within the counterfactual framework to the psychology audience in an accessible format and compare the sorts of inferences about mediation that are possible in the presence of exposure-mediator interaction when using a counterfactual versus the standard statistical approach. Second, the work by VanderWeele and Vansteelandt (2009, 2010) is extended here to allow for dichotomous mediators and count outcomes. Third, we provide SAS and SPSS macros to implement all of these mediation analysis techniques automatically, and we compare the types of inferences about mediation that are allowed by a variety of software macros. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Counterfactual reasoning for regretted situations involving controllable versus uncontrollable events: the modulating role of contingent self-esteem.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Meredith R; Ball, Linden J; Alford, David

2015-01-01

We report a study that examined the modulating impact of contingent self-esteem on regret intensity for regretted outcomes associated with controllable versus uncontrollable events. The Contingent Self-Esteem Scale (e.g., Kernis & Goldman, 2006) was used to assess the extent to which a person's sense of self-worth is based on self and others' expectations. We found that there was an influence of self-esteem contingency for controllable but not for uncontrollable regret types. For controllable regret types individuals with a high contingent (i.e., unstable) self-esteem reported greater regret intensity than those with a low contingent (i.e., stable) self-esteem. We interpret this finding as reflecting a functional and adaptive role of high contingent self-esteem in terms of mobilizing the application of counterfactual reasoning and planning mechanisms that can enable personal expectations to be achieved in the future.

Counterfactual distributed controlled-phase gate for quantum-dot spin qubits in double-sided optical microcavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Qi; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Chen, Li; Wang, Hong-Fu; Zhang, Shou

2014-10-01

The existing distributed quantum gates required physical particles to be transmitted between two distant nodes in the quantum network. We here demonstrate the possibility to implement distributed quantum computation without transmitting any particles. We propose a scheme for a distributed controlled-phase gate between two distant quantum-dot electron-spin qubits in optical microcavities. The two quantum-dot-microcavity systems are linked by a nested Michelson-type interferometer. A single photon acting as ancillary resource is sent in the interferometer to complete the distributed controlled-phase gate, but it never enters the transmission channel between the two nodes. Moreover, we numerically analyze the effect of experimental imperfections and show that the present scheme can be implemented with high fidelity in the ideal asymptotic limit. The scheme provides further evidence of quantum counterfactuality and opens promising possibilities for distributed quantum computation.

Counterfactual Reasoning for Regretted Situations Involving Controllable Versus Uncontrollable Events: The Modulating Role of Contingent Self-Esteem

PubMed Central

Wilkinson, Meredith R.; Ball, Linden J.; Alford, David

2015-01-01

We report a study that examined the modulating impact of contingent self-esteem on regret intensity for regretted outcomes associated with controllable versus uncontrollable events. The Contingent Self-Esteem Scale (e.g., Kernis & Goldman, 2006) was used to assess the extent to which a person’s sense of self-worth is based on self and others’ expectations. We found that there was an influence of self-esteem contingency for controllable but not for uncontrollable regret types. For controllable regret types individuals with a high contingent (i.e., unstable) self-esteem reported greater regret intensity than those with a low contingent (i.e., stable) self-esteem. We interpret this finding as reflecting a functional and adaptive role of high contingent self-esteem in terms of mobilizing the application of counterfactual reasoning and planning mechanisms that can enable personal expectations to be achieved in the future. PMID:25883697

Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, José A. F.

2010-05-01

The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

The social construction of drug-related death.

PubMed

Cruts

2000-12-01

This article invites you to a social constructionist view on the issue of drug-related death. Social constructionism is often misunderstood for denying plain facts. It sure is a fact that there are deadly doses of legal and illegal substances. In this sense it is a truism that drugs kill people. Nonetheless, it is argued that reducing the causes of death to a certain drug as the essential underlying cause of death is a social construction. A case is discussed to demonstrate that a drug-related death can just as well be seen as a free-market death. Free markets kill people at least as much as drugs do. It is argued that drug-related death is a social construction, because attributing a death to a drug is based on unfalsifiable counterfactual thinking. Counterfactual thoughts about what the world would look like if there were no drugs, are seen as expressing one's view of life.

Stochastic Modelling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2017-04-01

It is customary to have continuous monitoring of volcanoes showing signs of unrest that might lead to an eruption threatening local populations. Despite scientific progress in estimating the probability of an eruption occurring, the concept of continuously tracking eruption probability remains a future aspiration for volcano risk analysts. During some recent major volcanic crises, attempts have been made to estimate the eruption probability in real time to support government decision-making. These include the possibility of an eruption of Katla linked with the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, and the Santorini crisis of 2011-2012. However, once a crisis fades, interest in analyzing the probability that there might have been an eruption tends to wane. There is an inherent outcome bias well known to psychologists: if disaster was avoided, there is perceived to be little purpose in exploring scenarios where a disaster might have happened. Yet the better that previous periods of unrest are understood and modelled, the better that the risk associated with future periods of unrest will be quantified. Scenarios are counterfactual histories of the future. The task of quantifying the probability of an eruption for a past period of unrest should not be merely a statistical calculation, but should serve to elucidate and refine geophysical models of the eruptive processes. This is achieved by using a Bayesian Belief Network approach, in which monitoring observations are used to draw inferences on the underlying causal factors. Specifically, risk analysts are interested in identifying what dynamical perturbations might have tipped an unrest period in history over towards an eruption, and assessing what was the likelihood of such perturbations. Furthermore, in what ways might a historical volcano crisis have turned for the worse? Such important counterfactual questions are addressed in this paper.

The multisensory function of the human primary visual cortex.

PubMed

Murray, Micah M; Thelen, Antonia; Thut, Gregor; Romei, Vincenzo; Martuzzi, Roberto; Matusz, Pawel J

2016-03-01

It has been nearly 10 years since Ghazanfar and Schroeder (2006) proposed that the neocortex is essentially multisensory in nature. However, it is only recently that sufficient and hard evidence that supports this proposal has accrued. We review evidence that activity within the human primary visual cortex plays an active role in multisensory processes and directly impacts behavioural outcome. This evidence emerges from a full pallet of human brain imaging and brain mapping methods with which multisensory processes are quantitatively assessed by taking advantage of particular strengths of each technique as well as advances in signal analyses. Several general conclusions about multisensory processes in primary visual cortex of humans are supported relatively solidly. First, haemodynamic methods (fMRI/PET) show that there is both convergence and integration occurring within primary visual cortex. Second, primary visual cortex is involved in multisensory processes during early post-stimulus stages (as revealed by EEG/ERP/ERFs as well as TMS). Third, multisensory effects in primary visual cortex directly impact behaviour and perception, as revealed by correlational (EEG/ERPs/ERFs) as well as more causal measures (TMS/tACS). While the provocative claim of Ghazanfar and Schroeder (2006) that the whole of neocortex is multisensory in function has yet to be demonstrated, this can now be considered established in the case of the human primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events such as heat waves or droughts has evolved rapidly over the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence probability of an event in the present, factual world with the probability of the same event in a hypothetical, counterfactual world without human-induced climate change. Every such analysis necessarily faces multiple methodological choices including, but not limited to: the event definition, climate model configuration, and the design of the counterfactual world. Here, we explore the role of such choices for an attribution analysis of the 2015 European summer drought (Hauser et al., in preparation). While some GCMs suggest that anthropogenic forcing made the 2015 drought more likely, others suggest no impact, or even a decrease in the event probability. These results additionally differ for single GCMs, depending on the reference used for the counterfactual world. Observational results do not suggest a historical tendency towards more drying, but the record may be too short to provide robust assessments because of the large interannual variability of drought occurrence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-approach framework in event attribution research. This is especially important for events with low signal to noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts. Hauser, M., L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, A. Jézéquel, K. Haustein, S.I. Seneviratne, in preparation. A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought.

Do high vs. low purchasers respond differently to a nonessential energy-dense food tax? Two-year evaluation of Mexico's 8% nonessential food tax.

PubMed

Taillie, Lindsey Smith; Rivera, Juan A; Popkin, Barry M; Batis, Carolina

2017-12-01

It is unclear whether response to a nonessential food tax varies across time or for high vs. low-consuming households. The objective is to examine whether the effect of Mexico's 2014 8% nonessential energy-dense foods tax increased in the second year post-implementation and whether it differentially affected households by pre-tax purchasing pattern. We used longitudinal data on Mexican household food purchases (n=6089 households) from 2012 to 2015. Households were classified based on median pre-tax purchases: low untaxed/low taxed ("low"), low untaxed/high taxed ("unhealthy"), high untaxed/low taxed ("healthy"), and high untaxed/high taxed ("high") purchasers. Fixed effects models tested whether observed post-tax purchases differed from the counterfactual, or what would have been expected based on pre-tax trends. Post-tax declines in the % taxed food purchases increased from -4.8% in year one to -7.4% in year two, yielding a 2-year mean decline of 6.0% beyond the counterfactual (p<0.01). Post-tax change in % taxed food purchases varied by pre-tax purchasing level. Healthy purchasers showed no post-tax change in % taxed food purchases beyond the counterfactual, while unhealthy, low and high purchasers decreased (-12.3%, -5.3% and -4.4%, respectively) (p<0.01). The positive effect of Mexico's junk food tax continued in the second year, and households with greater preferences for taxed foods showed a larger decline in taxed food purchases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports affective future simulation by integrating distributed knowledge

PubMed Central

Benoit, Roland G.; Szpunar, Karl K.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

Although the future often seems intangible, we can make it more concrete by imagining prospective events. Here, using functional MRI, we demonstrate a mechanism by which the ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports such episodic simulations, and thereby contributes to affective foresight: This region supports processes that (i) integrate knowledge related to the elements that constitute an episode and (ii) represent the episode’s emergent affective quality. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex achieves such integration via interactions with distributed cortical regions that process the individual elements. Its activation then signals the affective quality of the ensuing episode, which goes beyond the combined affective quality of its constituting elements. The integrative process further augments long-term retention of the episode, making it available at later time points. This mechanism thus renders the future tangible, providing a basis for farsighted behavior. PMID:25368170

Ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports affective future simulation by integrating distributed knowledge.

PubMed

Benoit, Roland G; Szpunar, Karl K; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-11-18

Although the future often seems intangible, we can make it more concrete by imagining prospective events. Here, using functional MRI, we demonstrate a mechanism by which the ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports such episodic simulations, and thereby contributes to affective foresight: This region supports processes that (i) integrate knowledge related to the elements that constitute an episode and (ii) represent the episode's emergent affective quality. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex achieves such integration via interactions with distributed cortical regions that process the individual elements. Its activation then signals the affective quality of the ensuing episode, which goes beyond the combined affective quality of its constituting elements. The integrative process further augments long-term retention of the episode, making it available at later time points. This mechanism thus renders the future tangible, providing a basis for farsighted behavior.

Memory retrieval and the parietal cortex: a review of evidence from a dual-process perspective.

PubMed

Vilberg, Kaia L; Rugg, Michael D

2008-01-01

Although regions of the parietal cortex have been consistently implicated in episodic memory retrieval, the functional roles of these regions remain poorly understood. The present review presents a meta-analysis of findings from event-related fMRI studies reporting the loci of retrieval effects associated with familiarity- and recollection-related recognition judgments. The results of this analysis support previous suggestions that retrieval-related activity in lateral parietal cortex dissociates between superior regions, where activity likely reflects the task relevance of different classes of recognition test items, and more inferior regions where retrieval-related activity appears closely linked to successful recollection. It is proposed that inferior lateral parietal cortex forms part of a neural network supporting the 'episodic buffer' [Baddeley, A. D. (2000). The episodic buffer: A new component of working memory? Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 4, 417-423].

Double dissociation of 'what' and 'where' processing in auditory cortex.

PubMed

Lomber, Stephen G; Malhotra, Shveta

2008-05-01

Studies of cortical connections or neuronal function in different cerebral areas support the hypothesis that parallel cortical processing streams, similar to those identified in visual cortex, may exist in the auditory system. However, this model has not yet been behaviorally tested. We used reversible cooling deactivation to investigate whether the individual regions in cat nonprimary auditory cortex that are responsible for processing the pattern of an acoustic stimulus or localizing a sound in space could be doubly dissociated in the same animal. We found that bilateral deactivation of the posterior auditory field resulted in deficits in a sound-localization task, whereas bilateral deactivation of the anterior auditory field resulted in deficits in a pattern-discrimination task, but not vice versa. These findings support a model of cortical organization that proposes that identifying an acoustic stimulus ('what') and its spatial location ('where') are processed in separate streams in auditory cortex.

Structured networks support sparse traveling waves in rodent somatosensory cortex.

PubMed

Moldakarimov, Samat; Bazhenov, Maxim; Feldman, Daniel E; Sejnowski, Terrence J

2018-05-15

Neurons responding to different whiskers are spatially intermixed in the superficial layer 2/3 (L2/3) of the rodent barrel cortex, where a single whisker deflection activates a sparse, distributed neuronal population that spans multiple cortical columns. How the superficial layer of the rodent barrel cortex is organized to support such distributed sensory representations is not clear. In a computer model, we tested the hypothesis that sensory representations in L2/3 of the rodent barrel cortex are formed by activity propagation horizontally within L2/3 from a site of initial activation. The model explained the observed properties of L2/3 neurons, including the low average response probability in the majority of responding L2/3 neurons, and the existence of a small subset of reliably responding L2/3 neurons. Sparsely propagating traveling waves similar to those observed in L2/3 of the rodent barrel cortex occurred in the model only when a subnetwork of strongly connected neurons was immersed in a much larger network of weakly connected neurons.

Enhanced peripheral visual processing in congenitally deaf humans is supported by multiple brain regions, including primary auditory cortex.

PubMed

Scott, Gregory D; Karns, Christina M; Dow, Mark W; Stevens, Courtney; Neville, Helen J

2014-01-01

Brain reorganization associated with altered sensory experience clarifies the critical role of neuroplasticity in development. An example is enhanced peripheral visual processing associated with congenital deafness, but the neural systems supporting this have not been fully characterized. A gap in our understanding of deafness-enhanced peripheral vision is the contribution of primary auditory cortex. Previous studies of auditory cortex that use anatomical normalization across participants were limited by inter-subject variability of Heschl's gyrus. In addition to reorganized auditory cortex (cross-modal plasticity), a second gap in our understanding is the contribution of altered modality-specific cortices (visual intramodal plasticity in this case), as well as supramodal and multisensory cortices, especially when target detection is required across contrasts. Here we address these gaps by comparing fMRI signal change for peripheral vs. perifoveal visual stimulation (11-15° vs. 2-7°) in congenitally deaf and hearing participants in a blocked experimental design with two analytical approaches: a Heschl's gyrus region of interest analysis and a whole brain analysis. Our results using individually-defined primary auditory cortex (Heschl's gyrus) indicate that fMRI signal change for more peripheral stimuli was greater than perifoveal in deaf but not in hearing participants. Whole-brain analyses revealed differences between deaf and hearing participants for peripheral vs. perifoveal visual processing in extrastriate visual cortex including primary auditory cortex, MT+/V5, superior-temporal auditory, and multisensory and/or supramodal regions, such as posterior parietal cortex (PPC), frontal eye fields, anterior cingulate, and supplementary eye fields. Overall, these data demonstrate the contribution of neuroplasticity in multiple systems including primary auditory cortex, supramodal, and multisensory regions, to altered visual processing in congenitally deaf adults.

A helper virus-free HSV-1 vector containing the vesicular glutamate transporter-1 promoter supports expression preferentially in VGLUT1-containing glutamatergic neurons.

PubMed

Zhang, Guo-rong; Geller, Alfred I

2010-05-17

Multiple potential uses of direct gene transfer into neurons require restricting expression to specific classes of glutamatergic neurons. Thus, it is desirable to develop vectors containing glutamatergic class-specific promoters. The three vesicular glutamate transporters (VGLUTs) are expressed in distinct populations of neurons, and VGLUT1 is the predominant VGLUT in the neocortex, hippocampus, and cerebellar cortex. We previously reported a plasmid (amplicon) Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV-1) vector that placed the Lac Z gene under the regulation of the VGLUT1 promoter (pVGLUT1lac). Using helper virus-free vector stocks, we showed that this vector supported approximately 90% glutamatergic neuron-specific expression in postrhinal (POR) cortex, in rats sacrificed at either 4 days or 2 months after gene transfer. We now show that pVGLUT1lac supports expression preferentially in VGLUT1-containing glutamatergic neurons. pVGLUT1lac vector stock was injected into either POR cortex, which contains primarily VGLUT1-containing glutamatergic neurons, or into the ventral medial hypothalamus (VMH), which contains predominantly VGLUT2-containing glutamatergic neurons. Rats were sacrificed at 4 days after gene transfer, and the types of cells expressing ss-galactosidase were determined by immunofluorescent costaining. Cell counts showed that pVGLUT1lac supported expression in approximately 10-fold more cells in POR cortex than in the VMH, whereas a control vector supported expression in similar numbers of cells in these two areas. Further, in POR cortex, pVGLUT1lac supported expression predominately in VGLUT1-containing neurons, and, in the VMH, pVGLUT1lac showed an approximately 10-fold preference for the rare VGLUT1-containing neurons. VGLUT1-specific expression may benefit specific experiments on learning or specific gene therapy approaches, particularly in the neocortex. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

fMRI evidence for strategic decision-making during resolution of pronoun reference

PubMed Central

McMillan, Corey T.; Clark, Robin; Gunawardena, Delani; Ryant, Neville; Grossman, Murray

2012-01-01

Pronouns are extraordinarily common in daily language yet little is known about the neural mechanisms that support decisions about pronoun reference. We propose a large-scale neural network for resolving pronoun reference that consists of two components. First, a core language network in peri-Sylvian cortex supports syntactic and semantic resources for interpreting pronoun meaning in sentences. Second, a frontal-parietal network that supports strategic decision-making is recruited to support probabilistic and risk-related components of resolving a pronoun’s referent. In an fMRI study of healthy young adults, we observed activation of left inferior frontal and superior temporal cortex, consistent with a language network. We also observed activation of brain regions not associated with traditional language areas. By manipulating the context of the pronoun, we were able to demonstrate recruitment of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during probabilistic evaluation of a pronoun’s reference, and orbital frontal activation when a pronoun must adopt a risky referent. Together, these findings are consistent with a two-component model for resolving a pronoun’s reference that includes neuroanatomic regions supporting core linguistic and decision-making mechanisms. PMID:22245014

It's not going to be that fun: negative experiences can add meaning to life.

PubMed

Vohs, Kathleen D; Aaker, Jennifer L; Catapano, Rhia

2018-04-22

People seek to spend time in positive experiences, enjoying and savoring. Yet there is no escaping negative experiences, from the mundane (e.g. arguing) to the massive (e.g. death of a child). Might negative experiences confer a hidden benefit to well-being? We propose that they do, in the form of enhanced meaning in life. Research suggests that negative experiences can serve to boost meaning because they stimulate comprehension (understanding how the event fits into a broader narrative of the self, relationships, and the world), a known pillar of meaning in life. Findings on counterfactual thinking, reflecting on events' implications, and encompassing experiences into broad-based accounts of one's identity support the role of comprehension in contributing to life's meaning from unwanted, unwelcome experiences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation

PubMed Central

Sills, Erin O.; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A. Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca; Hall, Simon; Pattanayak, Subhrendu; Shoch, David; Vedoveto, Mariana; Young, Luisa; Pfaff, Alexander

2015-01-01

Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts’ selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal “blacklist” that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations. PMID:26173108

Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation.

PubMed

Sills, Erin O; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca; Hall, Simon; Pattanayak, Subhrendu; Shoch, David; Vedoveto, Mariana; Young, Luisa; Pfaff, Alexander

2015-01-01

Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts' selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal "blacklist" that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Importance of baseline specification in evaluating conservation interventions and achieving no net loss of biodiversity.

PubMed

Bull, J W; Gordon, A; Law, E A; Suttle, K B; Milner-Gulland, E J

2014-06-01

There is an urgent need to improve the evaluation of conservation interventions. This requires specifying an objective and a frame of reference from which to measure performance. Reference frames can be baselines (i.e., known biodiversity at a fixed point in history) or counterfactuals (i.e., a scenario that would have occurred without the intervention). Biodiversity offsets are interventions with the objective of no net loss of biodiversity (NNL). We used biodiversity offsets to analyze the effects of the choice of reference frame on whether interventions met stated objectives. We developed 2 models to investigate the implications of setting different frames of reference in regions subject to various biodiversity trends and anthropogenic impacts. First, a general analytic model evaluated offsets against a range of baseline and counterfactual specifications. Second, a simulation model then replicated these results with a complex real world case study: native grassland offsets in Melbourne, Australia. Both models showed that achieving NNL depended upon the interaction between reference frame and background biodiversity trends. With a baseline, offsets were less likely to achieve NNL where biodiversity was decreasing than where biodiversity was stable or increasing. With a no-development counterfactual, however, NNL was achievable only where biodiversity was declining. Otherwise, preventing development was better for biodiversity. Uncertainty about compliance was a stronger determinant of success than uncertainty in underlying biodiversity trends. When only development and offset locations were considered, offsets sometimes resulted in NNL, but not across an entire region. Choice of reference frame determined feasibility and effort required to attain objectives when designing and evaluating biodiversity offset schemes. We argue the choice is thus of fundamental importance for conservation policy. Our results shed light on situations in which biodiversity offsets may be an inappropriate policy instrument.

Evaluating South Africa's tobacco control policy using a synthetic control method.

PubMed

Chelwa, Grieve; van Walbeek, Corné; Blecher, Evan

2016-09-01

South Africa has since 1994 consistently increased the excise tax on cigarettes to maintain a total tax burden of 50% (1997-2003) and 52% (after 2004) of the average retail selling price. Between 1994 and 2004, the real (inflation-adjusted) excise tax increased by 249%, and the average real retail price of cigarettes increased by 110%. In addition, advertising and smoking bans were implemented in 2001. These measures, which we collectively refer to as tax-led, coincided with a 46% decrease in per capita consumption of cigarettes. No evaluation of South Africa's tobacco control policies has created a counterfactual of what would have happened if the tax-led measures had not occurred. (1) To create a credible counterfactual of what would have happened to per capita cigarette consumption if the tax-led measures had not happened. (2) To use this counterfactual to estimate their impact on cigarette consumption in South Africa. We use a synthetic control method to create a synthetic South Africa, as a weighted average of countries (the 'donor pool') that are similar to South Africa, but that did not engage in large-scale tobacco control measures between 1990 and 2004. Per capita cigarette consumption would not have continued declining in the absence of the tax-led measures that began in 1994. By 2004, per capita cigarette consumption was 36% lower than it would have been in the absence of the tax-led measures. These results, which we mostly attribute to tax increases, are robust to different specifications of the 'donor pool'. Significant public health dividends can be obtained by consistently increasing the real tax on cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Impact of a reduced red and processed meat dietary pattern on disease risks and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK: a modelling study.

PubMed

Aston, Louise M; Smith, James N; Powles, John W

2012-01-01

Consumption of red and processed meat (RPM) is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and high intakes of these foods increase the risks of several leading chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to use newly derived estimates of habitual meat intakes in UK adults to assess potential co-benefits to health and the environment from reduced RPM consumption. Modelling study using dietary intake data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of British Adults. British general population. Respondents were divided into fifths by energy-adjusted RPM intakes, with vegetarians constituting a sixth stratum. GHG emitted in supplying the diets of each stratum was estimated using data from life-cycle analyses. A feasible counterfactual UK population was specified, in which the proportion of vegetarians measured in the survey population doubled, and the remainder adopted the dietary pattern of the lowest fifth of RPM consumers. Reductions in risks of coronary heart disease, diabetes and colorectal cancer, and GHG emissions, under the counterfactual. Habitual RPM intakes were 2.5 times higher in the top compared with the bottom fifth of consumers. Under the counterfactual, statistically significant reductions in population aggregate risks ranged from 3.2% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.7) for diabetes in women to 12.2% (6.4 to 18.0) for colorectal cancer in men, with those moving from the highest to lowest consumption levels gaining about twice these averages. The expected reduction in GHG emissions was 0.45 tonnes CO(2) equivalent/person/year, about 3% of the current total, giving a reduction across the UK population of 27.8 million tonnes/year. Reduced consumption of RPM would bring multiple benefits to health and environment.

Causation in epidemiology

PubMed Central

Parascandola, M; Weed, D

2001-01-01

Causation is an essential concept in epidemiology, yet there is no single, clearly articulated definition for the discipline. From a systematic review of the literature, five categories can be delineated: production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic. Strengths and weaknesses of these categories are examined in terms of proposed characteristics of a useful scientific definition of causation: it must be specific enough to distinguish causation from mere correlation, but not so narrow as to eliminate apparent causal phenomena from consideration. Two categories—production and counterfactual—are present in any definition of causation but are not themselves sufficient as definitions. The necessary and sufficient cause definition assumes that all causes are deterministic. The sufficient-component cause definition attempts to explain probabilistic phenomena via unknown component causes. Thus, on both of these views, heavy smoking can be cited as a cause of lung cancer only when the existence of unknown deterministic variables is assumed. The probabilistic definition, however, avoids these assumptions and appears to best fit the characteristics of a useful definition of causation. It is also concluded that the probabilistic definition is consistent with scientific and public health goals of epidemiology. In debates in the literature over these goals, proponents of epidemiology as pure science tend to favour a narrower deterministic notion of causation models while proponents of epidemiology as public health tend to favour a probabilistic view. The authors argue that a single definition of causation for the discipline should be and is consistent with both of these aims. It is concluded that a counterfactually-based probabilistic definition is more amenable to the quantitative tools of epidemiology, is consistent with both deterministic and probabilistic phenomena, and serves equally well for the acquisition and the application of scientific knowledge.


Keywords: causality; counterfactual; philosophy PMID:11707485

Exploring the neural correlates of visual creativity

PubMed Central

Liew, Sook-Lei; Dandekar, Francesco

2013-01-01

Although creativity has been called the most important of all human resources, its neural basis is still unclear. In the current study, we used fMRI to measure neural activity in participants solving a visuospatial creativity problem that involves divergent thinking and has been considered a canonical right hemisphere task. As hypothesized, both the visual creativity task and the control task as compared to rest activated a variety of areas including the posterior parietal cortex bilaterally and motor regions, which are known to be involved in visuospatial rotation of objects. However, directly comparing the two tasks indicated that the creative task more strongly activated left hemisphere regions including the posterior parietal cortex, the premotor cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the medial PFC. These results demonstrate that even in a task that is specialized to the right hemisphere, robust parallel activity in the left hemisphere supports creative processing. Furthermore, the results support the notion that higher motor planning may be a general component of creative improvisation and that such goal-directed planning of novel solutions may be organized top-down by the left DLPFC and by working memory processing in the medial prefrontal cortex. PMID:22349801

Developing PFC Representations Using Reinforcement Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, Jeremy R.; O'Reilly, Randall C.

2009-01-01

From both functional and biological considerations, it is widely believed that action production, planning, and goal-oriented behaviors supported by the frontal cortex are organized hierarchically [Fuster (1991); Koechlin, E., Ody, C., & Kouneiher, F. (2003). "Neuroscience: The architecture of cognitive control in the human prefrontal cortex."…

Unpacking the neural associations of emotion and judgment in emotion-congruent judgment

PubMed Central

Beer, Jennifer S.

2012-01-01

The current study takes a new approach to understand the neural systems that support emotion-congruent judgment. The bulk of previous neural research has inferred emotional influences on judgment from disadvantageous judgments or non-random individual differences. The current study manipulated the influence of emotional information on judgments of stimuli that were equivocally composed of positive and negative attributes. Emotion-congruent processing was operationalized in two ways: neural activation significantly associated with primes that lead to emotionally congruent judgments and neural activation significantly associated with judgments that were preceded by emotionally congruent primes. Distinct regions of medial orbitofrontal cortex were associated with these patterns of emotion-congruent processing. Judgments that were incongruent with preceding primes were associated with dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and lateral orbitofrontal cortex activity. The current study demonstrates a new approach to investigate the neural systems associated with emotion-congruent judgment. The findings suggest that medial OFC may support attentional processes that underlie emotion-congruent judgment. PMID:21511825

The neural substrates of memory suppression: a FMRI exploration of directed forgetting.

PubMed

Bastin, Christine; Feyers, Dorothée; Majerus, Steve; Balteau, Evelyne; Degueldre, Christian; Luxen, André; Maquet, Pierre; Salmon, Eric; Collette, Fabienne

2012-01-01

The directed forgetting paradigm is frequently used to determine the ability to voluntarily suppress information. However, little is known about brain areas associated with information to forget. The present study used functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine brain activity during the encoding and retrieval phases of an item-method directed forgetting recognition task with neutral verbal material in order to apprehend all processing stages that information to forget and to remember undergoes. We hypothesized that regions supporting few selective processes, namely recollection and familiarity memory processes, working memory, inhibitory and selection processes should be differentially activated during the processing of to-be-remembered and to-be-forgotten items. Successful encoding and retrieval of items to remember engaged the entorhinal cortex, the hippocampus, the anterior medial prefrontal cortex, the left inferior parietal cortex, the posterior cingulate cortex and the precuneus; this set of regions is well known to support deep and associative encoding and retrieval processes in episodic memory. For items to forget, encoding was associated with higher activation in the right middle frontal and posterior parietal cortex, regions known to intervene in attentional control. Items to forget but nevertheless correctly recognized at retrieval yielded activation in the dorsomedial thalamus, associated with familiarity-based memory processes and in the posterior intraparietal sulcus and the anterior cingulate cortex, involved in attentional processes.

Integrating automatic and controlled processes into neurocognitive models of social cognition.

PubMed

Satpute, Ajay B; Lieberman, Matthew D

2006-03-24

Interest in the neural systems underlying social perception has expanded tremendously over the past few decades. However, gaps between behavioral literatures in social perception and neuroscience are still abundant. In this article, we apply the concept of dual-process models to neural systems in an effort to bridge the gap between many of these behavioral studies and neural systems underlying social perception. We describe and provide support for a neural division between reflexive and reflective systems. Reflexive systems correspond to automatic processes and include the amygdala, basal ganglia, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, and lateral temporal cortex. Reflective systems correspond to controlled processes and include lateral prefrontal cortex, posterior parietal cortex, medial prefrontal cortex, rostral anterior cingulate cortex, and the hippocampus and surrounding medial temporal lobe region. This framework is considered to be a working model rather than a finished product. Finally, the utility of this model and its application to other social cognitive domains such as Theory of Mind are discussed.

Representing Causation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolff, Phillip

2007-01-01

The dynamics model, which is based on L. Talmy's (1988) theory of force dynamics, characterizes causation as a pattern of forces and a position vector. In contrast to counterfactual and probabilistic models, the dynamics model naturally distinguishes between different cause-related concepts and explains the induction of causal relationships from…

Sustained consumer response: evidence from two-years after implementing the sugar sweetened beverage tax in Mexico

PubMed Central

Colchero, M. Arantxa; Rivera, Juan A.; Popkin, Barry M.

2017-01-01

In the first year of a 1 peso per liter excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, there was a 6% reduction in purchases of taxed beverages in Mexico. This paper estimates changes in beverage purchases two years after tax implementation. We used household store purchase data for 6,645 households from January 2012 to December 2015. Changes in purchases of taxed and untaxed beverages in the post-tax years were estimated using two separate models: comparing 2014 with predicted volumes (counterfactual) based on pre-tax (2012-2013) trends, and comparing 2015 with the same counterfactual. Purchases of taxed beverages decreased by 8.2% over the two years on average (-5.5% in 2014; -9.7% in 2015). The lowest socioeconomic group had the largest decreases in taxed beverages in both years. Untaxed beverage purchases increased 2.1% in the post-tax period. In Mexico, lower purchases of taxed beverages was sustained and grew in the second year of the tax. PMID:28228484

The poverty-reducing effect of Medicaid.

PubMed

Sommers, Benjamin D; Oellerich, Donald

2013-09-01

Medicaid provides health insurance for 54 million Americans. Using the Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure (which subtracts out-of-pocket medical expenses from family resources), we estimated the impact of eliminating Medicaid. In our counterfactual, Medicaid beneficiaries would become uninsured or gain other insurance. Counterfactual medical expenditures were drawn stochastically from propensity-score-matched individuals without Medicaid. While this method captures the importance of risk protection, it likely underestimates Medicaid's impact due to unobserved differences between Medicaid and non-Medicaid individuals. Nonetheless, we find that Medicaid reduces out-of-pocket medical spending from $871 to $376 per beneficiary, and decreases poverty rates by 1.0% among children, 2.2% among disabled adults, and 0.7% among elderly individuals. When factoring in institutionalized populations, an additional 500,000 people were kept out of poverty. Overall, Medicaid kept at least 2.6 million-and as many as 3.4 million-out of poverty in 2010, making it the U.S.'s third largest anti-poverty program. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comment on "Particle path through a nested Mach-Zehnder interferometer"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salih, Hatim

2018-02-01

In a recent paper [Phys. Rev. A 94, 032115 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevA.94.032115], Griffiths questioned—based on an interesting consistent-histories (CH) argument—the counterfactuality, for one of the bit choices, of the protocol of Salih et al. for communicating without sending physical particles [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 170502 (2013), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.170502]. Here, we first show that for the Mach-Zehnder version used to explain our protocol, contrary to Griffiths's claim, no family of consistent histories exists where any history has the photon traveling through the communication channel, thus rendering the question of whether the photon was in the communication channel meaningless from a CH viewpoint. We then show that for the actual Michelson-type protocol, there is a consistent-histories family for each cycle that includes histories where the photon travels through the communication channel. We show that the probability of finding the photon in the communication channel at any time is zero—proving complete counterfactuality.

Height and calories in early childhood.

PubMed

Griffen, Andrew S

2016-03-01

This paper estimates a height production function using data from a randomized nutrition intervention conducted in rural Guatemala from 1969 to 1977. Using the experimental intervention as an instrument, the IV estimates of the effect of calories on height are an order of magnitude larger than the OLS estimates. Information from a unique measurement error process in the calorie data, counterfactuals results from the estimated model and external evidence from migration studies suggest that IV is not identifying a policy relevant average marginal impact of calories on height. The preferred, attenuation bias corrected OLS estimates from the height production function suggest that, averaging over ages, a 100 calorie increase in average daily calorie intake over the course of a year would increase height by 0.06 cm. Counterfactuals from the model imply that calories gaps in early childhood can explain at most 16% of the height gap between Guatemalan children and the US born children of Guatemalan immigrants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Introducing a Minimum Price on the Distribution of Alcohol Purchase: A Counterfactual Analysis.

PubMed

Sharma, Anurag; Etilé, Fabrice; Sinha, Kompal

2016-09-01

We use counterfactual analysis techniques to evaluate the impact of a $2 minimum unit price (MUP) on the distribution of Australian (Victorian) household off-trade alcohol purchases. Our estimates suggest that a $2 MUP significantly reduces the purchases of at-risk households by up to -0.92 [90% CI: -1.55, -0.28] standard drinks at the highest quantiles and has substantially less effect on households purchasing at light and moderate levels. A $2 MUP may reduce the proportions of male and female shoppers purchasing at the public health threshold of more than two standard drinks per household member per day by -3.03 [90% CI: -4.83, -1.22] percentage points (relative variation: -17%); and -1.85 [90% CI: -2.60, -1.10] percentage points (relative variation:-22%), respectively. Implementing an MUP on alcohol thus promises significant positive impacts on public health. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Critical Involvement of the Motor Cortex in the Pathophysiology and Treatment of Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

Lindenbach, David; Bishop, Christopher

2013-01-01

This review examines the involvement of the motor cortex in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a debilitating movement disorder typified by degeneration of dopamine cells of the substantia nigra. While much of PD research has focused on the caudate/putamen, many aspects of motor cortex function are abnormal in PD patients and in animal models of PD, implicating motor cortex involvement in disease symptoms and their treatment. Herein, we discuss several lines of evidence to support this hypothesis. Dopamine depletion alters regional metabolism in the motor cortex and also reduces interneuron activity, causing a breakdown in intracortical inhibition. This leads to functional reorganization of motor maps and excessive corticostriatal synchrony when movement is initiated. Recent work suggests that electrical stimulation of the motor cortex provides a clinical benefit for PD patients. Based on extant research, we identify a number of unanswered questions regarding the motor cortex in PD and argue that a better understanding of the contribution of the motor cortex to PD symptoms will facilitate the development of novel therapeutic approaches. PMID:24113323

fMRI evidence for strategic decision-making during resolution of pronoun reference.

PubMed

McMillan, Corey T; Clark, Robin; Gunawardena, Delani; Ryant, Neville; Grossman, Murray

2012-04-01

Pronouns are extraordinarily common in daily language yet little is known about the neural mechanisms that support decisions about pronoun reference. We propose a large-scale neural network for resolving pronoun reference that consists of two components. First, a core language network in peri-Sylvian cortex supports syntactic and semantic resources for interpreting pronoun meaning in sentences. Second, a frontal-parietal network that supports strategic decision-making is recruited to support probabilistic and risk-related components of resolving a pronoun's referent. In an fMRI study of healthy young adults, we observed activation of left inferior frontal and superior temporal cortex, consistent with a language network. We also observed activation of brain regions not associated with traditional language areas. By manipulating the context of the pronoun, we were able to demonstrate recruitment of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during probabilistic evaluation of a pronoun's reference, and orbital frontal activation when a pronoun must adopt a risky referent. Together, these findings are consistent with a two-component model for resolving a pronoun's reference that includes neuroanatomic regions supporting core linguistic and decision-making mechanisms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional organization of the medial temporal lobe memory system following neonatal hippocampal lesion in rhesus monkeys.

PubMed

Chareyron, Loïc J; Banta Lavenex, Pamela; Amaral, David G; Lavenex, Pierre

2017-12-01

Hippocampal damage in adult humans impairs episodic and semantic memory, whereas hippocampal damage early in life impairs episodic memory but leaves semantic learning relatively preserved. We have previously shown a similar behavioral dissociation in nonhuman primates. Hippocampal lesion in adult monkeys prevents allocentric spatial relational learning, whereas spatial learning persists following neonatal lesion. Here, we quantified the number of cells expressing the immediate-early gene c-fos, a marker of neuronal activity, to characterize the functional organization of the medial temporal lobe memory system following neonatal hippocampal lesion. Ninety minutes before brain collection, three control and four adult monkeys with bilateral neonatal hippocampal lesions explored a novel environment to activate brain structures involved in spatial learning. Three other adult monkeys with neonatal hippocampal lesions remained in their housing quarters. In unlesioned monkeys, we found high levels of c-fos expression in the intermediate and caudal regions of the entorhinal cortex, and in the perirhinal, parahippocampal, and retrosplenial cortices. In lesioned monkeys, spatial exploration induced an increase in c-fos expression in the intermediate field of the entorhinal cortex, the perirhinal, parahippocampal, and retrosplenial cortices, but not in the caudal entorhinal cortex. These findings suggest that different regions of the medial temporal lobe memory system may require different types of interaction with the hippocampus in support of memory. The caudal perirhinal cortex, the parahippocampal cortex, and the retrosplenial cortex may contribute to spatial learning in the absence of functional hippocampal circuits, whereas the caudal entorhinal cortex may require hippocampal output to support spatial learning.

Evolution of the cerebellar cortex: the selective expansion of prefrontal-projecting cerebellar lobules.

PubMed

Balsters, J H; Cussans, E; Diedrichsen, J; Phillips, K A; Preuss, T M; Rilling, J K; Ramnani, N

2010-02-01

It has been suggested that interconnected brain areas evolve in tandem because evolutionary pressures act on complete functional systems rather than on individual brain areas. The cerebellar cortex has reciprocal connections with both the prefrontal cortex and motor cortex, forming independent loops with each. Specifically, in capuchin monkeys cerebellar cortical lobules Crus I and Crus II connect with prefrontal cortex, whereas the primary motor cortex connects with cerebellar lobules V, VI, VIIb, and VIIIa. Comparisons of extant primate species suggest that the prefrontal cortex has expanded more than cortical motor areas in human evolution. Given the enlargement of the prefrontal cortex relative to motor cortex in humans, our hypothesis would predict corresponding volumetric increases in the parts of the cerebellum connected to the prefrontal cortex, relative to cerebellar lobules connected to the motor cortex. We tested the hypothesis by comparing the volumes of cerebellar lobules in structural MRI scans in capuchins, chimpanzees and humans. The fractions of cerebellar volume occupied by Crus I and Crus II were significantly larger in humans compared to chimpanzees and capuchins. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that in the cortico-cerebellar system, functionally related structures evolve in concert with each other. The evolutionary expansion of these prefrontal-projecting cerebellar territories might contribute to the evolution of the higher cognitive functions of humans. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modal Non-Assertions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubio Vallejo, David

2017-01-01

The interaction between root (i.e. non-epistemic) modal verbs and functional heads like tense and aspect has been investigated in a wealth of recent literature, particularly in the context of counterfactual conditionals (Iatridou, 2000; Arregui, 2009; a.o.) and actuality entailments (Bhatt, 1999; Hacquard, 2006). In this work, I continue this…

Prefrontal Cortex Contributions to Episodic Retrieval Monitoring and Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cruse, Damian; Wilding, Edward L.

2009-01-01

Although the prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays roles in episodic memory judgments, the specific processes it supports are not understood fully. Event-related potential (ERP) studies of episodic retrieval have revealed an electrophysiological modulation--the right-frontal ERP old/new effect--which is thought to reflect activity in PFC. The functional…

Selection, integration, and conflict monitoring; assessing the nature and generality of prefrontal cognitive control mechanisms.

PubMed

Badre, David; Wagner, Anthony D

2004-02-05

Prefrontal cortex (PFC) supports flexible behavior by mediating cognitive control, though the elemental forms of control supported by PFC remain a central debate. Dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) is thought to guide response selection under conditions of response conflict or, alternatively, may refresh recently active representations within working memory. Lateral frontopolar cortex (FPC) may also adjudicate response conflict, though others propose that FPC supports higher order control processes such as subgoaling and integration. Anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is hypothesized to upregulate response selection by detecting response conflict; it remains unclear whether ACC functions generalize beyond monitoring response conflict. The present fMRI experiment directly tested these competing theories regarding the functional roles of DLPFC, FPC, and ACC. Results reveal dissociable control processes in PFC, with mid-DLPFC selectively mediating resolution of response conflict and FPC further mediating subgoaling/integration. ACC demonstrated a broad sensitivity to control demands, suggesting a generalized role in modulating cognitive control.

Functional Specialization and Flexibility in Human Association Cortex

PubMed Central

Yeo, B. T. Thomas; Krienen, Fenna M.; Eickhoff, Simon B.; Yaakub, Siti N.; Fox, Peter T.; Buckner, Randy L.; Asplund, Christopher L.; Chee, Michael W.L.

2015-01-01

The association cortex supports cognitive functions enabling flexible behavior. Here, we explored the organization of human association cortex by mathematically formalizing the notion that a behavioral task engages multiple cognitive components, which are in turn supported by multiple overlapping brain regions. Application of the model to a large data set of neuroimaging experiments (N = 10 449) identified complex zones of frontal and parietal regions that ranged from being highly specialized to highly flexible. The network organization of the specialized and flexible regions was explored with an independent resting-state fMRI data set (N = 1000). Cortical regions specialized for the same components were strongly coupled, suggesting that components function as partially isolated networks. Functionally flexible regions participated in multiple components to different degrees. This heterogeneous selectivity was predicted by the connectivity between flexible and specialized regions. Functionally flexible regions might support binding or integrating specialized brain networks that, in turn, contribute to the ability to execute multiple and varied tasks. PMID:25249407

Counterfactual Graphical Models for Longitudinal Mediation Analysis with Unobserved Confounding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shpitser, Ilya

2013-01-01

Questions concerning mediated causal effects are of great interest in psychology, cognitive science, medicine, social science, public health, and many other disciplines. For instance, about 60% of recent papers published in leading journals in social psychology contain at least one mediation test (Rucker, Preacher, Tormala, & Petty, 2011).…

University as Regional Development Agent: A Counterfactual Analysis of an African University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fongwa, Samuel N.; Wangenge-Ouma, Gerald

2015-01-01

The contribution of universities to regional development has in the last few decades gained significant currency. Inter alia, this contribution has been through steered national, regional, and institutional policies aimed at enhancing national development, good governance, human capital creation and innovation in an increasing knowledge-dependent…

Causal Inferences in the Campbellian Validity System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lund, Thorleif

2010-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to critically examine causal inferences and internal validity as defined by Campbell and co-workers. Several arguments are given against their counterfactual effect definition, and this effect definition should be considered inadequate for causal research in general. Moreover, their defined independence between…

Validity as Process: A Construct Driven Measure of Fidelity of Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Ryan Seth

2013-01-01

Estimates of fidelity of implementation are essential to interpret the effects of educational interventions in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). While random assignment protects against many threats to validity, and therefore provides the best approximation to a true counterfactual condition, it does not ensure that the treatment condition…

76 FR 59132 - Agency Information Collection Request. 60-Day Public Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-23

... counterfactual, or the ``business as usual'' services received by youth in the control group. This information... Evaluation (ASPE), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Administration for Children... Evaluation). The TPP Replication Evaluation will be an experimental evaluation which will determine the...

Propensity Score Weighting with Error-Prone Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Lockwood, J. R.; Setodji, Claude M.

2011-01-01

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimates are widely used in applications where data are missing due to nonresponse or censoring or in observational studies of causal effects where the counterfactuals cannot be observed. This extensive literature has shown the estimators to be consistent and asymptotically normal under very general conditions,…

The Economic Impact of Colleges and Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegfried, John J.; Sanderson, Allen R.; McHenry, Peter

2007-01-01

This essay describes methodological approaches and pitfalls common to studies of the economic impact of colleges and universities. Such studies often claim local benefits that imply annualized rates of return on local investment exceeding 100 percent. We address problems in these studies pertaining to the specification of the counterfactual, the…

Outcome Studies of Social, Behavioral, and Educational Interventions: Emerging Issues and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fraser, Mark W.; Guo, Shenyang; Ellis, Alan R.; Thompson, Aaron M.; Wike, Traci L.; Li, Jilan

2011-01-01

This article describes the core features of outcome research and then explores issues confronting researchers who engage in outcome studies. Using an intervention research perspective, descriptive and explanatory methods are distinguished. Emphasis is placed on the counterfactual causal perspective, designing programs that fit culture and context,…

Myopic Regret Avoidance: Feedback Avoidance and Learning in Repeated Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reb, Jochen; Connolly, Terry

2009-01-01

Decision makers can become trapped by "myopic regret avoidance" in which rejecting feedback to avoid short-term "outcome regret" (regret associated with counterfactual outcome comparisons) leads to reduced learning and greater long-term regret over continuing poor decisions. In a series of laboratory experiments involving repeated choices among…

A Note on Causes of Effects

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-29

gone. Is it because I took aspirin ?”], let alone formulate conditions for its estimation in a counterfactual-free language (Pearl, 2000b, p. 429). 1...to take aspirin was unrelated to the (then hidden) values of the potential responses.” Now this additional assumption is unreasonable unless the joint

High-Definition Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation Enhances Conditioned Pain Modulation in Healthy Volunteers: A Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Flood, Andrew; Waddington, Gordon; Cathcart, Stuart

2016-05-01

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a form of brain stimulation that allows for the selective increase or decrease in the cortical excitability of a targeted region. When applied over the motor cortex it has been shown to induce changes in cortical and subcortical brain regions involved in descending pain inhibition or conditioned pain modulation (CPM). The aim of the current study was to assess whether activation of pain inhibitory pathways via tDCS of the motor cortex facilitates the CPM response. Elevated CPM after active tDCS of the motor cortex was hypothesized. Thirty healthy male volunteers attended 2 experimental sessions separated by 7 days. Both sessions consisted of CPM assessment after 20 minutes of either active or sham (placebo) tDCS over the motor cortex. CPM capacity was assessed via the pain-inhibits-pain protocol; CPM responses were shown to be elevated after active compared with sham tDCS. This report concludes that tDCS of the motor cortex enhances the CPM response in healthy men. This finding supports the potential utility of tDCS interventions in clinical pain treatment. The use of noninvasive brain stimulation over the motor cortex was shown to enhance the CPM effect. This finding supports the use of tDCS in the treatment of chronic pain, particularly in sufferers exhibiting maladaptive CPM. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neural correlates of conversion disorder: overview and meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies on motor conversion disorder.

PubMed

Boeckle, Markus; Liegl, Gregor; Jank, Robert; Pieh, Christoph

2016-06-10

Conversion Disorders (CD) are prevalent functional disorders. Although the pathogenesis is still not completely understood, an interaction of genetic, neurobiological, and psychosocial factors is quite likely. The aim of this study is to provide a systematic overview on imaging studies on CDs and investigate neuronal areas involved in Motor Conversion Disorders (MCD). A systematic literature search was conducted on CD. Subsequently a meta-analysis of functional neuroimaging studies on MCD was implemented using an Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE). We calculated differences between patients and healthy controls as well as between affected versus unaffected sides in addition to an overall analysis in order to identify neuronal areas related to MCD. Patients with MCD differ from healthy controls in the amygdala, superior temporal lobe, retrosplenial area, primary motor cortex, insula, red nucleus, thalamus, anterior as well as dorsolateral prefrontal and frontal cortex. When comparing affected versus unaffected sides, temporal cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus, dorsal temporal lobe, anterior insula, primary somatosensory cortex, superior frontal gyrus and anterior prefrontal as well as frontal cortex show significant differences. Neuronal areas seem to be involved in the pathogenesis, maintenance or as a result of MCD. Areas that are important for motor-planning, motor-selection or autonomic response seem to be especially relevant. Our results support the emotional unawareness theory but also underline the need of more support by conduction imaging studies on both CD and MCD.

A theoretical and computational framework for mechanics of the cortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-SáNchez, Alejandro; Arroyo, Marino

The cell cortex is a thin network of actin filaments lying beneath the cell surface of animal cells. Myosin motors exert contractile forces in this network leading to active stresses, which play a key role in processes such as cytokinesis or cell migration. Thus, understanding the mechanics of the cortex is fundamental to understand the mechanics of animal cells. Due to the dynamic remodeling of the actin network, the cortex behaves as a viscoelastic fluid. Furthermore, due to the difference between its thickness (tens of nanometers) and its dimensions (tens of microns), the cortex can be regarded a surface. Thus, we can model the cortex as a viscoelastic fluid, confined to a surface, that generates active stresses. Interestingly, geometric confinement results in the coupling between shape generation and material flows. In this work we present a theoretical framework to model the mechanics of the cortex that couples elasticity, hydrodynamics and force generation. We complement our theoretical description with a computational setting to simulate the resulting non-linear equations. We use this methodology to understand different processes such as asymmetric cell division or experimental probing of the rheology of the cortex We acknowledge the support of the Europen Research Council through Grant ERC CoG-681434.

Orbital prefrontal cortex is required for object-in-place scene memory but not performance of a strategy implementation task.

PubMed

Baxter, Mark G; Gaffan, David; Kyriazis, Diana A; Mitchell, Anna S

2007-10-17

The orbital prefrontal cortex is thought to be involved in behavioral flexibility in primates, and human neuroimaging studies have identified orbital prefrontal activation during episodic memory encoding. The goal of the present study was to ascertain whether deficits in strategy implementation and episodic memory that occur after ablation of the entire prefrontal cortex can be ascribed to damage to the orbital prefrontal cortex. Rhesus monkeys were preoperatively trained on two behavioral tasks, the performance of both of which is severely impaired by the disconnection of frontal cortex from inferotemporal cortex. In the strategy implementation task, monkeys were required to learn about two categories of objects, each associated with a different strategy that had to be performed to obtain food reward. The different strategies had to be applied flexibly to optimize the rate of reward delivery. In the scene memory task, monkeys learned 20 new object-in-place discrimination problems in each session. Monkeys were tested on both tasks before and after bilateral ablation of orbital prefrontal cortex. These lesions impaired new scene learning but had no effect on strategy implementation. This finding supports a role for the orbital prefrontal cortex in memory but places limits on the involvement of orbital prefrontal cortex in the representation and implementation of behavioral goals and strategies.

TMS of the occipital cortex induces tactile sensations in the fingers of blind Braille readers.

PubMed

Ptito, M; Fumal, A; de Noordhout, A Martens; Schoenen, J; Gjedde, A; Kupers, R

2008-01-01

Various non-visual inputs produce cross-modal responses in the visual cortex of early blind subjects. In order to determine the qualitative experience associated with these occipital activations, we systematically stimulated the entire occipital cortex using single pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) in early blind subjects and in blindfolded seeing controls. Whereas blindfolded seeing controls reported only phosphenes following occipital cortex stimulation, some of the blind subjects reported tactile sensations in the fingers that were somatotopically organized onto the visual cortex. The number of cortical sites inducing tactile sensations appeared to be related to the number of hours of Braille reading per day, Braille reading speed and dexterity. These data, taken in conjunction with previous anatomical, behavioural and functional imaging results, suggest the presence of a polysynaptic cortical pathway between the somatosensory cortex and the visual cortex in early blind subjects. These results also add new evidence that the activity of the occipital lobe in the blind takes its qualitative expression from the character of its new input source, therefore supporting the cortical deference hypothesis.

Construal-Level Theory of Psychological Distance

PubMed Central

Trope, Yaacov; Liberman, Nira

2011-01-01

People are capable of thinking about the future, the past, remote locations, another person’s perspective, and counterfactual alternatives. Without denying the uniqueness of each process, it is proposed that they constitute different forms of traversing psychological distance. Psychological distance is egocentric: Its reference point is the self in the here and now, and the different ways in which an object might be removed from that point—in time, in space, in social distance, and in hypotheticality—constitute different distance dimensions. Transcending the self in the here and now entails mental construal, and the farther removed an object is from direct experience, the higher (more abstract) the level of construal of that object. Supporting this analysis, research shows (a) that the various distances are cognitively related to each other, (b) that they similarly influence and are influenced by level of mental construal, and (c) that they similarly affect prediction, preference, and action. PMID:20438233

Understanding Islamist political violence through computational social simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watkins, Jennifer H; Mackerrow, Edward P; Patelli, Paolo G

Understanding the process that enables political violence is of great value in reducing the future demand for and support of violent opposition groups. Methods are needed that allow alternative scenarios and counterfactuals to be scientifically researched. Computational social simulation shows promise in developing 'computer experiments' that would be unfeasible or unethical in the real world. Additionally, the process of modeling and simulation reveals and challenges assumptions that may not be noted in theories, exposes areas where data is not available, and provides a rigorous, repeatable, and transparent framework for analyzing the complex dynamics of political violence. This paper demonstrates themore » computational modeling process using two simulation techniques: system dynamics and agent-based modeling. The benefits and drawbacks of both techniques are discussed. In developing these social simulations, we discovered that the social science concepts and theories needed to accurately simulate the associated psychological and social phenomena were lacking.« less

The influence of rTMS over prefrontal and motor areas in a morphological task: grammatical vs. semantic effects.

PubMed

Gerfo, Emanuele Lo; Oliveri, Massimiliano; Torriero, Sara; Salerno, Silvia; Koch, Giacomo; Caltagirone, Carlo

2008-01-31

We investigated the differential role of two frontal regions in the processing of grammatical and semantic knowledge. Given the documented specificity of the prefrontal cortex for the grammatical class of verbs, and of the primary motor cortex for the semantic class of action words, we sought to investigate whether the prefrontal cortex is also sensitive to semantic effects, and whether the motor cortex is also sensitive to grammatical class effects. We used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to suppress the excitability of a portion of left prefontal cortex (first experiment) and of the motor area (second experiment). In the first experiment we found that rTMS applied to the left prefrontal cortex delays the processing of action verbs' retrieval, but is not critical for retrieval of state verbs and state nouns. In the second experiment we found that rTMS applied to the left motor cortex delays the processing of action words, both name and verbs, while it is not critical for the processing of state words. These results support the notion that left prefrontal and motor cortex are involved in the process of action word retrieval. Left prefrontal cortex subserves processing of both grammatical and semantic information, whereas motor cortex contributes to the processing of semantic representation of action words without any involvement in the representation of grammatical categories.

Left Ventrolateral Prefrontal Cortex and the Cognitive Control of Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Badre, David; Wagner, Anthony D.

2007-01-01

Cognitive control mechanisms permit memory to be accessed strategically, and so aid in bringing knowledge to mind that is relevant to current goals and actions. In this review, we consider the contribution of left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) to the cognitive control of memory. Reviewed evidence supports a two-process model of mnemonic…

Orbito-Frontal Cortex Is Necessary for Temporal Context Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duarte, Audrey; Henson, Richard N.; Knight, Robert T.; Emery, Tina; Graham, Kim S.

2010-01-01

Lesion and neuroimaging studies suggest that orbito-frontal cortex (OFC) supports temporal aspects of episodic memory. However, it is unclear whether OFC contributes to the encoding and/or retrieval of temporal context and whether it is selective for temporal relative to nontemporal (spatial) context memory. We addressed this issue with two…

Developmental outcomes after early prefrontal cortex damage.

PubMed

Eslinger, Paul J; Flaherty-Craig, Claire V; Benton, Arthur L

2004-06-01

The neuropsychological bases of cognitive, social, and moral development are minimally understood, with a seemingly wide chasm between developmental theories and brain maturation models. As one approach to bridging ideas in these areas, we review 10 cases of early prefrontal cortex damage from the clinical literature, highlighting overall clinical profiles and real life developmental outcomes. Based on these cases, there is preliminary evidence to support distinctive developmental differences after: (1) dorsolateral, (2) mesial, and (3) orbital-polar prefrontal lesions, for more profound impairments after bilateral damage, and possibly for recovery differences after very early vs. later childhood lesion onset. Further case and group studies are needed to confirm reliable effects of specific lesion locations, the influence of age of lesion onset, and related experiential and treatment variables in determining adult outcomes. Rather than a single underlying deficit associated with early prefrontal cortex damage, we interpret the findings to suggest that it is the altered integration and interplay of cognitive, emotional, self-regulatory, and executive/metacognitive deficits that contribute to diverse developmental frontal lobe syndromes. The findings support the fundamental importance of prefrontal cortex maturation in protracted cognitive, social-emotional, and moral development.

The Localization of Long-Distance Dependency Components: Integrating the Focal-lesion and Neuroimaging Record

PubMed Central

Piñango, Maria M.; Finn, Emily; Lacadie, Cheryl; Constable, R. Todd

2016-01-01

In the sentence “The captain who the sailor greeted is tall,” the connection between the relative pronoun and the object position of greeted represents a long-distance dependency (LDD), necessary for the interpretation of “the captain” as the individual being greeted. Whereas the lesion-based record shows preferential involvement of only the left inferior frontal (LIF) cortex, associated with Broca's aphasia, during real-time comprehension of LDDs, the neuroimaging record shows additional involvement of the left posterior superior temporal (LPST) and lower parietal cortices, which are associated with Wernicke's aphasia. We test the hypothesis that this localization incongruence emerges from an interaction of memory and linguistic constraints involved in the real-time implementation of these dependencies and which had not been previously isolated. Capitalizing on a long-standing psycholinguistic understanding of LDDs as the workings of an active filler, we distinguish two linguistically defined mechanisms: GAP-search, triggered by the retrieval of the relative pronoun, and GAP-completion, triggered by the retrieval of the embedded verb. Each mechanism is hypothesized to have distinct memory demands and given their distinct linguistic import, potentially distinct brain correlates. Using fMRI, we isolate the two mechanisms by analyzing their relevant sentential segments as separate events. We manipulate LDD-presence/absence and GAP-search type (direct/indirect) reflecting the absence/presence of intervening islands. Results show a direct GAP-search—LIF cortex correlation that crucially excludes the LPST cortex. Notably, indirect GAP-search recruitment is confined to supplementary-motor and lower-parietal cortex indicating that GAP presence alone is not enough to engage predictive functions in the LIF cortex. Finally, GAP-completion shows recruitment implicating the dorsal pathway including: the supplementary motor cortex, left supramarginal cortex, precuneus, and anterior/dorsal cingulate. Altogether, the results are consistent with previous findings connecting GAP-search, as we define it, to the LIF cortex. They are not consistent with an involvement of the LPST cortex in any of the two mechanisms, and therefore support the view that the LPST cortex is not crucial to LDD implementation. Finally, results support neurocognitive architectures that involve the dorsal pathway in LDD resolution and that distinguish the memory commitments of the LIF cortex as sensitive to specific language-dependent constraints beyond phrase-structure building considerations. PMID:27746748

The Localization of Long-Distance Dependency Components: Integrating the Focal-lesion and Neuroimaging Record.

PubMed

Piñango, Maria M; Finn, Emily; Lacadie, Cheryl; Constable, R Todd

2016-01-01

In the sentence "The captain who the sailor greeted is tall," the connection between the relative pronoun and the object position of greeted represents a long-distance dependency (LDD), necessary for the interpretation of "the captain" as the individual being greeted. Whereas the lesion-based record shows preferential involvement of only the left inferior frontal (LIF) cortex, associated with Broca's aphasia, during real-time comprehension of LDDs, the neuroimaging record shows additional involvement of the left posterior superior temporal (LPST) and lower parietal cortices, which are associated with Wernicke's aphasia. We test the hypothesis that this localization incongruence emerges from an interaction of memory and linguistic constraints involved in the real-time implementation of these dependencies and which had not been previously isolated. Capitalizing on a long-standing psycholinguistic understanding of LDDs as the workings of an active filler, we distinguish two linguistically defined mechanisms: GAP-search , triggered by the retrieval of the relative pronoun, and GAP-completion , triggered by the retrieval of the embedded verb. Each mechanism is hypothesized to have distinct memory demands and given their distinct linguistic import, potentially distinct brain correlates. Using fMRI, we isolate the two mechanisms by analyzing their relevant sentential segments as separate events. We manipulate LDD-presence/absence and GAP-search type (direct/indirect) reflecting the absence/presence of intervening islands. Results show a direct GAP-search -LIF cortex correlation that crucially excludes the LPST cortex. Notably, indirect GAP-search recruitment is confined to supplementary-motor and lower-parietal cortex indicating that GAP presence alone is not enough to engage predictive functions in the LIF cortex. Finally, GAP-completion shows recruitment implicating the dorsal pathway including: the supplementary motor cortex, left supramarginal cortex, precuneus, and anterior/dorsal cingulate. Altogether, the results are consistent with previous findings connecting GAP-search , as we define it, to the LIF cortex. They are not consistent with an involvement of the LPST cortex in any of the two mechanisms, and therefore support the view that the LPST cortex is not crucial to LDD implementation. Finally, results support neurocognitive architectures that involve the dorsal pathway in LDD resolution and that distinguish the memory commitments of the LIF cortex as sensitive to specific language-dependent constraints beyond phrase-structure building considerations.

A Brain System for Auditory Working Memory.

PubMed

Kumar, Sukhbinder; Joseph, Sabine; Gander, Phillip E; Barascud, Nicolas; Halpern, Andrea R; Griffiths, Timothy D

2016-04-20

The brain basis for auditory working memory, the process of actively maintaining sounds in memory over short periods of time, is controversial. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging in human participants, we demonstrate that the maintenance of single tones in memory is associated with activation in auditory cortex. In addition, sustained activation was observed in hippocampus and inferior frontal gyrus. Multivoxel pattern analysis showed that patterns of activity in auditory cortex and left inferior frontal gyrus distinguished the tone that was maintained in memory. Functional connectivity during maintenance was demonstrated between auditory cortex and both the hippocampus and inferior frontal cortex. The data support a system for auditory working memory based on the maintenance of sound-specific representations in auditory cortex by projections from higher-order areas, including the hippocampus and frontal cortex. In this work, we demonstrate a system for maintaining sound in working memory based on activity in auditory cortex, hippocampus, and frontal cortex, and functional connectivity among them. Specifically, our work makes three advances from the previous work. First, we robustly demonstrate hippocampal involvement in all phases of auditory working memory (encoding, maintenance, and retrieval): the role of hippocampus in working memory is controversial. Second, using a pattern classification technique, we show that activity in the auditory cortex and inferior frontal gyrus is specific to the maintained tones in working memory. Third, we show long-range connectivity of auditory cortex to hippocampus and frontal cortex, which may be responsible for keeping such representations active during working memory maintenance. Copyright © 2016 Kumar et al.

Cortex proliferation in the root is a protective mechanism against abiotic stress.

PubMed

Cui, Hongchang

2015-01-01

Although as an organ the root plays a pivotal role in nutrient and water uptake as well anchorage, individual cell types function distinctly. Cortex is regarded as the least differentiated cell type in the root, but little is known about its role in plant growth and physiology. In recent studies, we found that cortex proliferation can be induced by oxidative stress. Since all types of abiotic stress lead to oxidative stress, this finding suggests a role for cortex in coping with abiotic stress. This hypothesis was tested in this study using the spy mutant, which has an extra layer of cortex in the root. Interestingly, the spy mutant was shown to be hypersensitive to salt and oxidizing reagent applied to the leaves, but it was as tolerant as the wild type to these compounds in the soil. This result lends support to the notion that cortex has a protective role against abiotic stress arising from the soil.

A computational model of cerebral cortex folding.

PubMed

Nie, Jingxin; Guo, Lei; Li, Gang; Faraco, Carlos; Stephen Miller, L; Liu, Tianming

2010-05-21

The geometric complexity and variability of the human cerebral cortex have long intrigued the scientific community. As a result, quantitative description of cortical folding patterns and the understanding of underlying folding mechanisms have emerged as important research goals. This paper presents a computational 3D geometric model of cerebral cortex folding initialized by MRI data of a human fetal brain and deformed under the governance of a partial differential equation modeling cortical growth. By applying different simulation parameters, our model is able to generate folding convolutions and shape dynamics of the cerebral cortex. The simulations of this 3D geometric model provide computational experimental support to the following hypotheses: (1) Mechanical constraints of the skull regulate the cortical folding process. (2) The cortical folding pattern is dependent on the global cell growth rate of the whole cortex. (3) The cortical folding pattern is dependent on relative rates of cell growth in different cortical areas. (4) The cortical folding pattern is dependent on the initial geometry of the cortex. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The prelimbic cortex uses higher-order cues to modulate both the acquisition and expression of conditioned fear

PubMed Central

Sharpe, Melissa J.; Killcross, Simon

2015-01-01

The prelimbic (PL) cortex allows rodents to adapt their responding under changing experimental circumstances. In line with this, the PL cortex has been implicated in strategy set shifting, attentional set shifting, the resolution of response conflict, and the modulation of attention towards predictive stimuli. One interpretation of this research is that the PL cortex is involved in using information garnered from higher-order cues in the environment to modulate how an animal responds to environmental stimuli. However, data supporting this view of PL function in the aversive domain are lacking. In the following experiments, we attempted to answer two questions. Firstly, we wanted to investigate whether the role of the PL cortex in using higher-order cues to influence responding generalizes across appetitive and aversive domains. Secondly, as much of the research has focused on a role for the PL cortex in performance, we wanted to assess whether this region is also involved in the acquisition of hierarchal associations which facilitate an ability to use higher-order cues to modulate responding. In order to answer these questions, we assessed the impact of PL inactivation during both the acquisition and expression of a contextual bi-conditional discrimination. A contextual bi-conditional discrimination involves presenting two stimuli. In one context, one stimulus is paired with shock while the other is presented without shock. In another context, these contingencies are reversed. Thus, animals have to use the present contextual cues to disambiguate the significance of the stimulus and respond appropriately. We found that PL inactivation disrupted both the encoding and expression of these context-dependent associations. This supports a role for the PL cortex in allowing higher-order cues to modulate both learning about, and responding towards, different cues. We discuss these findings in the broader context of functioning in the medial prefrontal cortex (PFC). PMID:25628542

Selectivity in Postencoding Connectivity with High-Level Visual Cortex Is Associated with Reward-Motivated Memory

PubMed Central

Murty, Vishnu P.; Tompary, Alexa; Adcock, R. Alison

2017-01-01

Reward motivation has been demonstrated to enhance declarative memory by facilitating systems-level consolidation. Although high-reward information is often intermixed with lower reward information during an experience, memory for high value information is prioritized. How is this selectivity achieved? One possibility is that postencoding consolidation processes bias memory strengthening to those representations associated with higher reward. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the influence of differential reward motivation on the selectivity of postencoding markers of systems-level memory consolidation. Human participants encoded intermixed, trial-unique memoranda that were associated with either high or low-value during fMRI acquisition. Encoding was interleaved with periods of rest, allowing us to investigate experience-dependent changes in connectivity as they related to later memory. Behaviorally, we found that reward motivation enhanced 24 h associative memory. Analysis of patterns of postencoding connectivity showed that, even though learning trials were intermixed, there was significantly greater connectivity with regions of high-level, category-selective visual cortex associated with high-reward trials. Specifically, increased connectivity of category-selective visual cortex with both the VTA and the anterior hippocampus predicted associative memory for high- but not low-reward memories. Critically, these results were independent of encoding-related connectivity and univariate activity measures. Thus, these findings support a model by which the selective stabilization of memories for salient events is supported by postencoding interactions with sensory cortex associated with reward. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Reward motivation is thought to promote memory by supporting memory consolidation. Yet, little is known as to how brain selects relevant information for subsequent consolidation based on reward. We show that experience-dependent changes in connectivity of both the anterior hippocampus and the VTA with high-level visual cortex selectively predicts memory for high-reward memoranda at a 24 h delay. These findings provide evidence for a novel mechanism guiding the consolidation of memories for valuable events, namely, postencoding interactions between neural systems supporting mesolimbic dopamine activation, episodic memory, and perception. PMID:28100737

Cortex-dependent recovery of unassisted hindlimb locomotion after complete spinal cord injury in adult rats

PubMed Central

Manohar, Anitha; Foffani, Guglielmo; Ganzer, Patrick D; Bethea, John R; Moxon, Karen A

2017-01-01

After paralyzing spinal cord injury the adult nervous system has little ability to ‘heal’ spinal connections, and it is assumed to be unable to develop extra-spinal recovery strategies to bypass the lesion. We challenge this assumption, showing that completely spinalized adult rats can recover unassisted hindlimb weight support and locomotion without explicit spinal transmission of motor commands through the lesion. This is achieved with combinations of pharmacological and physical therapies that maximize cortical reorganization, inducing an expansion of trunk motor cortex and forepaw sensory cortex into the deafferented hindlimb cortex, associated with sprouting of corticospinal axons. Lesioning the reorganized cortex reverses the recovery. Adult rats can thus develop a novel cortical sensorimotor circuit that bypasses the lesion, probably through biomechanical coupling, to partly recover unassisted hindlimb locomotion after complete spinal cord injury. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23532.001 PMID:28661400

Electrolytic Lesions of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex Do Not Interfere with Long-Term Memory of Extinction of Conditioned Fear

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia, Rene; Chang, Chun-hui; Maren, Stephen

2006-01-01

Lesion studies indicate that rats without the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) have difficulty recalling fear extinction acquired the previous day. Several electrophysiological studies have also supported this observation by demonstrating that extinction-related increases in neuronal activity in the mPFC participate in expression of fear…

Reading Without the Left Ventral Occipito-Temporal Cortex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seghier, Mohamed L.; Neufeld, Nicholas H.; Zeidman, Peter; Leff, Alex P.; Mechelli, Andrea; Nagendran, Arjuna; Riddoch, Jane M.; Humphreys, Glyn W.; Price, Cathy J.

2012-01-01

The left ventral occipito-temporal cortex (LvOT) is thought to be essential for the rapid parallel letter processing that is required for skilled reading. Here we investigate whether rapid written word identification in skilled readers can be supported by neural pathways that do not involve LvOT. Hypotheses were derived from a stroke patient who…

The Contribution of the Inferior Parietal Cortex to Spoken Language Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geranmayeh, Fatemeh; Brownsett, Sonia L. E.; Leech, Robert; Beckmann, Christian F.; Woodhead, Zoe; Wise, Richard J. S.

2012-01-01

This functional MRI study investigated the involvement of the left inferior parietal cortex (IPC) in spoken language production (Speech). Its role has been apparent in some studies but not others, and is not convincingly supported by clinical studies as they rarely include cases with lesions confined to the parietal lobe. We compared Speech with…

Contralateral Disconnection of the Rat Prelimbic Cortex and Dorsomedial Striatum Impairs Cue-Guided Behavioral Switching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Phillip M.; Ragozzino, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Switches in reward outcomes or reward-predictive cues are two fundamental ways in which information is used to flexibly shift response patterns. The rat prelimbic cortex and dorsomedial striatum support behavioral flexibility based on a change in outcomes. The present experiments investigated whether these two brain regions are necessary for…

[The participation of the projection areas of the temporal cortex in the sensory support of certain forms of cognitive processes].

PubMed

Mukhin, E I; Orlova, E I; Teriaeva, N B; Mukhina, Iu K; Nabieva, T N

1993-01-01

In neuropsychophysiological and biochemical experiments was studied the role of the temporal cortex of the cat (AI, AII) in mnemonic, perceptive, gnostic functions, praxis, and the higher cognitive processes. The participation of the temporal fields in the mechanisms forming the gnostic imagery activity was shown.

Body stability and muscle and motor cortex activity during walking with wide stance

PubMed Central

Farrell, Brad J.; Bulgakova, Margarita A.; Beloozerova, Irina N.; Sirota, Mikhail G.

2014-01-01

Biomechanical and neural mechanisms of balance control during walking are still poorly understood. In this study, we examined the body dynamic stability, activity of limb muscles, and activity of motor cortex neurons [primarily pyramidal tract neurons (PTNs)] in the cat during unconstrained walking and walking with a wide base of support (wide-stance walking). By recording three-dimensional full-body kinematics we found for the first time that during unconstrained walking the cat is dynamically unstable in the forward direction during stride phases when only two diagonal limbs support the body. In contrast to standing, an increased lateral between-paw distance during walking dramatically decreased the cat's body dynamic stability in double-support phases and prompted the cat to spend more time in three-legged support phases. Muscles contributing to abduction-adduction actions had higher activity during stance, while flexor muscles had higher activity during swing of wide-stance walking. The overwhelming majority of neurons in layer V of the motor cortex, 82% and 83% in the forelimb and hindlimb representation areas, respectively, were active differently during wide-stance walking compared with unconstrained condition, most often by having a different depth of stride-related frequency modulation along with a different mean discharge rate and/or preferred activity phase. Upon transition from unconstrained to wide-stance walking, proximal limb-related neuronal groups subtly but statistically significantly shifted their activity toward the swing phase, the stride phase where most of body instability occurs during this task. The data suggest that the motor cortex participates in maintenance of body dynamic stability during locomotion. PMID:24790167

Considering Counterfactuals: The Relationship between Causal Learning and Pretend Play

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gopnik, Alison; Walker, Caren M.

2013-01-01

Many researchers have long assumed imaginative play critical to the healthy cognitive, social, and emotional development of children, which has important implications for early-education policy and practice. But, the authors find, a careful review of the existing literature highlights a need for a better theory to clarify the nature of the…

The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Mei

2012-01-01

Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…

Programs as Causal Models: Speculations on Mental Programs and Mental Representation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chater, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

2013-01-01

Judea Pearl has argued that counterfactuals and causality are central to intelligence, whether natural or artificial, and has helped create a rich mathematical and computational framework for formally analyzing causality. Here, we draw out connections between these notions and various current issues in cognitive science, including the nature of…

Using a Virtual History Conference to Teach the Iraq War

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilley, Bruce

2013-01-01

In teaching the causes of the Iraq War, the use of "virtual history" can be employed in a conference setting in which different individuals are assigned to different plausible counterfactuals they use to construct virtual histories. The Iraq War lends itself to the virtual history approach because of the availability of many plausible…

Children's Thinking about Counterfactuals and Future Hypotheticals as Possibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beck, Sarah R.; Robinson, Elizabeth J.; Carroll, Daniel J.; Apperly, Ian A.

2006-01-01

Two experiments explored whether children's correct answers to counter factual and future hypothetical questions were based on an understanding of possibilities. Children played a game in which a toy mouse could run down either 1 of 2 slides. Children found it difficult to mark physically both possible outcomes, compared to reporting a single…

Processing Conversational Implicatures: Alternatives and Counterfactual Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tiel, Bob; Schaeken, Walter

2017-01-01

In a series of experiments, Bott and Noveck (2004) found that the computation of scalar inferences, a variety of conversational implicature, caused a delay in response times. In order to determine what aspect of the inferential process that underlies scalar inferences caused this delay, we extended their paradigm to three other kinds of…

Improving the Past and the Future: A Temporal Asymmetry in Hypothetical Thinking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrante, Donatella; Girotto, Vittorio; Straga, Marta; Walsh, Clare

2013-01-01

Current views of hypothetical thinking implicitly assume that the content of imaginary thoughts about the past and future should be the same. Two experiments show that, given the same experienced facts of reality, future imagination may differ from past reconstruction. When participants failed a task, their counterfactual thoughts focused on…

Adolescents' Heightened Risk-Seeking in a Probabilistic Gambling Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burnett, Stephanie; Bault, Nadege; Coricelli, Giorgio; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne

2010-01-01

This study investigated adolescent males' decision-making under risk, and the emotional response to decision outcomes, using a probabilistic gambling task designed to evoke counterfactually mediated emotions (relief and regret). Participants were 20 adolescents (aged 9-11), 26 young adolescents (aged 12-15), 20 mid-adolescents (aged 15-18) and 17…

There Is a World outside of Experimental Designs: Using Twins to Investigate Causation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, Sara A.; Taylor, Jeanette; Schatschneider, Christopher

2013-01-01

This study introduces a co-twin control method commonly used in the medical literature but not often within educational research. This method allows for a comparison of twins discordant for an "exposure," approximating alternative outcomes in the counterfactual model. Example analyses use data drawn from the Florida Twin Project on…

Financial Aid and College Persistence: Do Student Loans Help or Hurt?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herzog, Serge

2018-01-01

Using data from two freshmen cohorts at a public research university (N = 3730), this study examines the relationship between loan aid and second-year enrollment persistence. Applying a counterfactual analytical framework that relies on propensity score (PS) weighting and matching to address selection bias associated with treatment status, the…

Causal Premise Semantics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaufmann, Stefan

2013-01-01

The rise of causality and the attendant graph-theoretic modeling tools in the study of counterfactual reasoning has had resounding effects in many areas of cognitive science, but it has thus far not permeated the mainstream in linguistic theory to a comparable degree. In this study I show that a version of the predominant framework for the formal…

How to (properly) strengthen Bell's theorem using counterfactuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigaj, Tomasz

Bell's theorem in its standard version demonstrates that the joint assumptions of the hidden-variable hypothesis and the principle of local causation lead to a conflict with quantum-mechanical predictions. In his latest counterfactual strengthening of Bell's theorem, Stapp attempts to prove that the locality assumption itself contradicts the quantum-mechanical predictions in the Hardy case. His method relies on constructing a complex, non-truth functional formula which consists of statements about measurements and outcomes in some region R, and whose truth value depends on the selection of a measurement setting in a space-like separated location L. Stapp argues that this fact shows that the information about the measurement selection made in L has to be present in R. I give detailed reasons why this conclusion can and should be resisted. Next I correct and formalize an informal argument by Shimony and Stein showing that the locality condition coupled with Einstein's criterion of reality is inconsistent with quantum-mechanical predictions. I discuss the possibility of avoiding the inconsistency by rejecting Einstein's criterion rather than the locality assumption.

Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J.; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-10-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

The Community College Effect Revisited: The Importance of Attending to Heterogeneity and Complex Counterfactuals*

PubMed Central

Brand, Jennie E.; Pfeffer, Fabian T.; Goldrick-Rab, Sara

2015-01-01

Community colleges are controversial educational institutions, often said to simultaneously expand college opportunities and diminish baccalaureate attainment. We assess the seemingly contradictory functions of community colleges by attending to effect heterogeneity and to alternative counterfactual conditions. Using data on postsecondary outcomes of high school graduates of Chicago Public Schools, we find that enrolling at a community college penalizes more advantaged students who otherwise would have attended four-year colleges, particularly highly selective schools; however, these students represent a relatively small portion of the community college population, and these estimates are almost certainly biased. On the other hand, enrolling at a community college has a modest positive effect on bachelor's degree completion for disadvantaged students who otherwise would not have attended college; these students represent the majority of community college goers. We conclude that discussions among scholars, policymakers, and practitioners should move beyond considering the pros and cons of community college attendance for students in general to attending to the implications of community college attendance for targeted groups of students. PMID:25825705

Rhinal and Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex Lesions Produce Selective Impairments in Object and Spatial Learning and Memory in Canines

PubMed Central

Christie, Lori-Ann; Saunders, Richard C.; Kowalska, Danuta, M.; MacKay, William A.; Head, Elizabeth; Cotman, Carl W.; Milgram, Norton W.

2014-01-01

To examine the effects of rhinal and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex lesions on object and spatial recognition memory in canines, we used a protocol in which both an object (delayed non-matching to sample, or DNMS) and a spatial (delayed non-matching to position or DNMP) recognition task were administered daily. The tasks used similar procedures such that only the type of stimulus information to be remembered differed. Rhinal cortex (RC) lesions produced a selective deficit on the DNMS task, both in retention of the task rules at short delays and in object recognition memory. By contrast, performance on the DNMP task remained intact at both short and long delay intervals in RC animals. Subjects who received dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) lesions were impaired on a spatial task at a short, 5-sec delay, suggesting disrupted retention of the general task rules, however, this impairment was transient; long-term spatial memory performance was unaffected in dlPFC subjects. The present results provide support for the involvement of the RC in object, but not visuospatial, processing and recognition memory, whereas the dlPFC appears to mediate retention of a non-matching rule. These findings support theories of functional specialization within the medial temporal lobe and frontal cortex and suggest that rhinal and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices in canines are functionally similar to analogous regions in other mammals. PMID:18792072

Convergent evolution as natural experiment: the tape of life reconsidered

PubMed Central

Powell, Russell; Mariscal, Carlos

2015-01-01

Stephen Jay Gould argued that replaying the ‘tape of life’ would result in radically different evolutionary outcomes. Recently, biologists and philosophers of science have paid increasing attention to the theoretical importance of convergent evolution—the independent origination of similar biological forms and functions—which many interpret as evidence against Gould's thesis. In this paper, we examine the evidentiary relevance of convergent evolution for the radical contingency debate. We show that under the right conditions, episodes of convergent evolution can constitute valid natural experiments that support inferences regarding the deep counterfactual stability of macroevolutionary outcomes. However, we argue that proponents of convergence have problematically lumped causally heterogeneous phenomena into a single evidentiary basket, in effect treating all convergent events as if they are of equivalent theoretical import. As a result, the ‘critique from convergent evolution’ fails to engage with key claims of the radical contingency thesis. To remedy this, we develop ways to break down the heterogeneous set of convergent events based on the nature of the generalizations they support. Adopting this more nuanced approach to convergent evolution allows us to differentiate iterated evolutionary outcomes that are probably common among alternative evolutionary histories and subject to law-like generalizations, from those that do little to undermine and may even support, the Gouldian view of life. PMID:26640647

Convergent evolution as natural experiment: the tape of life reconsidered.

PubMed

Powell, Russell; Mariscal, Carlos

2015-12-06

Stephen Jay Gould argued that replaying the 'tape of life' would result in radically different evolutionary outcomes. Recently, biologists and philosophers of science have paid increasing attention to the theoretical importance of convergent evolution-the independent origination of similar biological forms and functions-which many interpret as evidence against Gould's thesis. In this paper, we examine the evidentiary relevance of convergent evolution for the radical contingency debate. We show that under the right conditions, episodes of convergent evolution can constitute valid natural experiments that support inferences regarding the deep counterfactual stability of macroevolutionary outcomes. However, we argue that proponents of convergence have problematically lumped causally heterogeneous phenomena into a single evidentiary basket, in effect treating all convergent events as if they are of equivalent theoretical import. As a result, the 'critique from convergent evolution' fails to engage with key claims of the radical contingency thesis. To remedy this, we develop ways to break down the heterogeneous set of convergent events based on the nature of the generalizations they support. Adopting this more nuanced approach to convergent evolution allows us to differentiate iterated evolutionary outcomes that are probably common among alternative evolutionary histories and subject to law-like generalizations, from those that do little to undermine and may even support, the Gouldian view of life.

Impact of a clinical interventions bundle on uptake of HPV vaccine at an OB/GYN clinic.

PubMed

Deshmukh, Uma; Oliveira, Carlos R; Griggs, Susan; Coleman, Emily; Avni-Singer, Lital; Pathy, Shefali; Shapiro, Eugene D; Sheth, Sangini S

2018-06-14

HPV vaccine uptake is lowest among young adults. Little is known about the most effective way to decrease missed opportunities (MO) and increase uptake of the vaccine in this vulnerable population. To determine the impact of a clinical intervention bundle on the rate of MO and uptake of the vaccine among young adult women. From 2/2014 to 7/2015, an intervention bundle (designating physician and nurse champions, pre-screening patients' charts, empowering nurses to recommend immunization, providing no-cost vaccinations, placing prompts in clinic note templates, eliminating requirement for pre-vaccination pregnancy test) was implemented at an urban, hospital-based OB/GYN clinic. Medical records were reviewed for all vaccine-eligible (non-pregnant, 11-26 years) women seen between 2/2013 and 9/2016. Impact of the bundled interventions on the monthly rates of MO and vaccine uptake was estimated by analyzing immunization trends with an interrupted time-series model using counterfactual comparison groups in order to control for pre-existing trends. There were 6,463 vaccine-eligible visits during our study period. The prevalence of women who had both completed and initiated the series was significantly higher, 20.3% and 29.7% respectively, in the last month, compared to their counterfactuals (p < 0.01). In the last study month, the rate of MO was significantly lower than its counterfactual (19.73 per 100 encounters lower, p < 0.01). Hispanic women had attributable reductions in their rates of MO that were twice that of White women. Statistically significant attributable reductions were also seen among Spanish speakers, publicly insured, and uninsured women. Implementation of this intervention bundle effectively reduced the monthly rate of MO and increased the prevalence of women who had initiated and completed the HPV vaccine series. The reduction of MO was most drastic among Hispanic, publicly insured and uninsured women compared to White and privately insured. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Importance of Baseline Specification in Evaluating Conservation Interventions and Achieving No Net Loss of Biodiversity

PubMed Central

Bull, J W; Gordon, A; Law, E A; Suttle, K B; Milner-Gulland, E J

2014-01-01

There is an urgent need to improve the evaluation of conservation interventions. This requires specifying an objective and a frame of reference from which to measure performance. Reference frames can be baselines (i.e., known biodiversity at a fixed point in history) or counterfactuals (i.e., a scenario that would have occurred without the intervention). Biodiversity offsets are interventions with the objective of no net loss of biodiversity (NNL). We used biodiversity offsets to analyze the effects of the choice of reference frame on whether interventions met stated objectives. We developed 2 models to investigate the implications of setting different frames of reference in regions subject to various biodiversity trends and anthropogenic impacts. First, a general analytic model evaluated offsets against a range of baseline and counterfactual specifications. Second, a simulation model then replicated these results with a complex real world case study: native grassland offsets in Melbourne, Australia. Both models showed that achieving NNL depended upon the interaction between reference frame and background biodiversity trends. With a baseline, offsets were less likely to achieve NNL where biodiversity was decreasing than where biodiversity was stable or increasing. With a no-development counterfactual, however, NNL was achievable only where biodiversity was declining. Otherwise, preventing development was better for biodiversity. Uncertainty about compliance was a stronger determinant of success than uncertainty in underlying biodiversity trends. When only development and offset locations were considered, offsets sometimes resulted in NNL, but not across an entire region. Choice of reference frame determined feasibility and effort required to attain objectives when designing and evaluating biodiversity offset schemes. We argue the choice is thus of fundamental importance for conservation policy. Our results shed light on situations in which biodiversity offsets may be an inappropriate policy instrument Importancia de la Especificación de Línea de Base en la Evaluación de Intervenciones de Conservación y la Obtención de Ninguna Pérdida Neta de la Biodiversidad PMID:24945031

The cost effectiveness of a quality improvement program to reduce maternal and fetal mortality in a regional referral hospital in Accra, Ghana.

PubMed

Goodman, David M; Ramaswamy, Rohit; Jeuland, Marc; Srofenyoh, Emmanuel K; Engmann, Cyril M; Olufolabi, Adeyemi J; Owen, Medge D

2017-01-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a quality improvement intervention aimed at reducing maternal and fetal mortality in Accra, Ghana. Quasi-experimental, time-sequence intervention, retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. Data were collected on the cost and outcomes of a 5-year Kybele-Ghana Health Service Quality Improvement (QI) intervention conducted at Ridge Regional Hospital, a tertiary referral center in Accra, Ghana, focused on systems, personnel, and communication. Maternal deaths prevented were estimated comparing observed rates with counterfactual projections of maternal mortality and case-fatality rates for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and obstetric hemorrhage. Stillbirths prevented were estimated based on counterfactual estimates of stillbirth rates. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated using estimated disability-adjusted life years averted and subjected to Monte Carlo and one-way sensitivity analyses to test the importance of assumptions inherent in the calculations. Incremental Cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which represents the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted by the intervention compared to a model counterfactual. From 2007-2011, 39,234 deliveries were affected by the QI intervention implemented at Ridge Regional Hospital. The total budget for the program was $2,363,100. Based on program estimates, 236 (±5) maternal deaths and 129 (±13) intrapartum stillbirths were averted (14,876 DALYs), implying an ICER of $158 ($129-$195) USD. This value is well below the highly cost-effective threshold of $1268 USD. Sensitivity analysis considered DALY calculation methods, and yearly prevalence of risk factors and case fatality rates. In each of these analyses, the program remained highly cost-effective with an ICER ranging from $97-$218. QI interventions to reduce maternal and fetal mortality in low resource settings can be highly cost effective. Cost-effectiveness analysis is feasible and should regularly be conducted to encourage fiscal responsibility in the pursuit of improved maternal and child health.

Spontaneous brain activity in the sensorimotor cortex in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis can be negatively regulated by corticospinal fiber integrity.

PubMed

Sako, Wataru; Abe, Takashi; Izumi, Yuishin; Yamazaki, Hiroki; Matsui, Naoko; Harada, Masafumi; Kaji, Ryuji

2017-05-01

Previous studies failed to detect reduced value of the amplitude of low frequency fluctuation (ALFF) derived from resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging in the primary motor cortex in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) though primary motor cortex was mainly affected with ALS. We aimed to investigate the cause of masking the abnormality in the primary motor cortex in ALS and usefulness of ALFF for differential diagnosis among diseases showing muscle weakness. We enrolled ten patients with ALS and eleven disease controls showing muscle weakness. Voxel-wise analysis revealed that significant reduction of ALFF value was present in the right sensorimotor cortex in ALS. There was a significant negative correlation between ALFF value in the right sensorimotor cortex and fractional anisotropy (FA) value in the posterior limbs of the internal capsule (PLIC). For a diagnostic tool, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve improved if the ALS patients with disease duration >1 year were excluded. The present findings raised the possibility of usefulness of ALFF value in the sensorimotor cortex for differential diagnosis of ALS, and supported the notion that adjustment for FA value in the PLIC could improve accuracy.

Electrophysiological evidence for phenomenal consciousness.

PubMed

Revonsuo, Antti; Koivisto, Mika

2010-09-01

Abstract Recent evidence from event-related brain potentials (ERPs) lends support to two central theses in Lamme's theory. The earliest ERP correlate of visual consciousness appears over posterior visual cortex around 100-200 ms after stimulus onset. Its scalp topography and time window are consistent with recurrent processing in the visual cortex. This electrophysiological correlate of visual consciousness is mostly independent of later ERPs reflecting selective attention and working memory functions. Overall, the ERP evidence supports the view that phenomenal consciousness of a visual stimulus emerges earlier than access consciousness, and that attention and awareness are served by distinct neural processes.

Neuropsychology of prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Siddiqui, Shazia Veqar; Chatterjee, Ushri; Kumar, Devvarta; Siddiqui, Aleem; Goyal, Nishant

2008-01-01

The history of clinical frontal lobe study is long and rich which provides valuable insights into neuropsychologic determinants of functions of prefrontal cortex (PFC). PFC is often classified as multimodal association cortex as extremely processed information from various sensory modalities is integrated here in a precise fashion to form the physiologic constructs of memory, perception, and diverse cognitive processes. Human neuropsychologic studies also support the notion of different functional operations within the PFC. The specification of the component ‘executive’ processes and their localization to particular regions of PFC have been implicated in a wide variety of psychiatric disorders. PMID:19742233

Computational Models of Cognitive Control

PubMed Central

O’Reilly, Randall C.; Herd, Seth A.; Pauli, Wolfgang M.

2010-01-01

Cognitive control refers to the ability to perform task-relevant processing in the face of other distractions or other forms of interference, in the absence of strong environmental support. It depends on the integrity of the prefrontal cortex and associated biological structures (e.g., the basal ganglia). Computational models have played an influential role in developing our understanding of this system, and we review current developments in three major areas: dynamic gating of prefrontal representations, hierarchies in the prefrontal cortex, and reward, motivation, and goal-related processing in prefrontal cortex. Models in these and other areas are advancing the field further forward. PMID:20185294

Braille alexia during visual hallucination in a blind man with selective calcarine atrophy.

PubMed

Maeda, Kengo; Yasuda, Hitoshi; Haneda, Masakazu; Kashiwagi, Atsunori

2003-04-01

The case of a 56-year-old man who has been blind for 25 years due to retinal degeneration is herein described. The patient complained of elementary visual hallucination, during which it was difficult for him to read Braille. Brain magnetic resonance imaging showed marked atrophy of the bilateral striate cortex. Visual hallucination as a release phenomenon of the primary visual cortex has never been reported to cause alexia for Braille. The present case supports the results of recent functional imaging studies of the recruitment of striate and prestriate cortex for Braille reading.

The Thalamocortical Projection Systems in Primate: An Anatomical Support for Multisensory and Sensorimotor Interplay

PubMed Central

Cappe, Céline; Morel, Anne; Barone, Pascal

2009-01-01

Multisensory and sensorimotor integrations are usually considered to occur in superior colliculus and cerebral cortex, but few studies proposed the thalamus as being involved in these integrative processes. We investigated whether the organization of the thalamocortical (TC) systems for different modalities partly overlap, representing an anatomical support for multisensory and sensorimotor interplay in thalamus. In 2 macaque monkeys, 6 neuroanatomical tracers were injected in the rostral and caudal auditory cortex, posterior parietal cortex (PE/PEa in area 5), and dorsal and ventral premotor cortical areas (PMd, PMv), demonstrating the existence of overlapping territories of thalamic projections to areas of different modalities (sensory and motor). TC projections, distinct from the ones arising from specific unimodal sensory nuclei, were observed from motor thalamus to PE/PEa or auditory cortex and from sensory thalamus to PMd/PMv. The central lateral nucleus and the mediodorsal nucleus project to all injected areas, but the most significant overlap across modalities was found in the medial pulvinar nucleus. The present results demonstrate the presence of thalamic territories integrating different sensory modalities with motor attributes. Based on the divergent/convergent pattern of TC and corticothalamic projections, 4 distinct mechanisms of multisensory and sensorimotor interplay are proposed. PMID:19150924

Functional heterogeneity of conflict, error, task-switching, and unexpectedness effects within medial prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Nee, Derek Evan; Kastner, Sabine; Brown, Joshua W

2011-01-01

The last decade has seen considerable discussion regarding a theoretical account of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) function with particular focus on the anterior cingulate cortex. The proposed theories have included conflict detection, error likelihood prediction, volatility monitoring, and several distinct theories of error detection. Arguments for and against particular theories often treat mPFC as functionally homogeneous, or at least nearly so, despite some evidence for distinct functional subregions. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to simultaneously contrast multiple effects of error, conflict, and task-switching that have been individually construed in support of various theories. We found overlapping yet functionally distinct subregions of mPFC, with activations related to dominant error, conflict, and task-switching effects successively found along a rostral-ventral to caudal-dorsal gradient within medial prefrontal cortex. Activations in the rostral cingulate zone (RCZ) were strongly correlated with the unexpectedness of outcomes suggesting a role in outcome prediction and preparing control systems to deal with anticipated outcomes. The results as a whole support a resolution of some ongoing debates in that distinct theories may each pertain to corresponding distinct yet overlapping subregions of mPFC. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Cortical Network for the Encoding of Object Change

PubMed Central

Hindy, Nicholas C.; Solomon, Sarah H.; Altmann, Gerry T.M.; Thompson-Schill, Sharon L.

2015-01-01

Understanding events often requires recognizing unique stimuli as alternative, mutually exclusive states of the same persisting object. Using fMRI, we examined the neural mechanisms underlying the representation of object states and object-state changes. We found that subjective ratings of visual dissimilarity between a depicted object and an unseen alternative state of that object predicted the corresponding multivoxel pattern dissimilarity in early visual cortex during an imagery task, while late visual cortex patterns tracked dissimilarity among distinct objects. Early visual cortex pattern dissimilarity for object states in turn predicted the level of activation in an area of left posterior ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (pVLPFC) most responsive to conflict in a separate Stroop color-word interference task, and an area of left ventral posterior parietal cortex (vPPC) implicated in the relational binding of semantic features. We suggest that when visualizing object states, representational content instantiated across early and late visual cortex is modulated by processes in left pVLPFC and left vPPC that support selection and binding, and ultimately event comprehension. PMID:24127425

Extinction Generates Outcome-Specific Conditioned Inhibition.

PubMed

Laurent, Vincent; Chieng, Billy; Balleine, Bernard W

2016-12-05

Extinction involves altering a previously established predictive relationship between a cue and its outcome by repeatedly presenting that cue alone. Although it is widely accepted that extinction generates some form of inhibitory learning [1-4], direct evidence for this claim has been lacking, and the nature of the associative changes induced by extinction have, therefore, remained a matter of debate [5-8]. In the current experiments, we used a novel behavioral approach that we recently developed and that provides a direct measure of conditioned inhibition [9] to compare the influence of extinguished and non-extinguished cues on choice between goal-directed actions. Using this approach, we provide direct evidence that extinction generates outcome-specific conditioned inhibition. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this inhibitory learning is controlled by the infralimbic cortex (IL); inactivation of the IL using M4 DREADDs abolished outcome-specific inhibition and rendered the cue excitatory. Importantly, we found that context modulated this inhibition. Outside its extinction context, the cue was excitatory and functioned as a specific predictor of its previously associated outcome, biasing choice toward actions earning the same outcome. In its extinction context, however, the cue acted as a specific inhibitor and biased choice toward actions earning different outcomes. Context modulation of these excitatory and inhibitory memories was mediated by the dorsal hippocampus (HPC), suggesting that the HPC and IL act in concert to control the influence of conditioned inhibitors on choice. These findings demonstrate for the first time that extinction turns a cue into a net inhibitor that can influence choice via counterfactual action-outcome associations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studies Presented to Robert B. Lees by His Students. Papers in Linguistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadock, Jerrold M.; Vanek, Anthony L.

This volume, dedicated to Professor Robert B. Lees on the occasion of his departure from the University of Illinois, contains 15 papers on a variety of linguistic topics: C. L. Baker, "Problems of Polarity in Counterfactuals"; Lawrence F. Bouton, "Do So: Do+Adverb"; Chin-chuan Cheng, "Domains of Phonological Rule Application"; Joseph F. Foster,…

Reply to ``Comment on `Counterfactual entanglement and nonlocal correlations in separable states' ''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Oliver

2001-01-01

Two objections have been raised to the arguments presented by Cohen [Phys. Rev. A 60, 80 (1999)]. It is pointed out that neither objection has anything to do with the main subject matter of that paper, and shown that both objections are based on misunderstandings of the examples to which they relate.

False Belief Understanding: The Influence of Person, Grammatical Mood, Counterfactual Reasoning and Working Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muller, Ulrich; Miller, Michael R.; Michalczyk, Kurt; Karapinka, Aaron

2007-01-01

The present study had two major goals. The first goal was to assess the relative difficulty among different versions of the unexpected contents task by systematically varying the dimensions of grammatical mood (indicative vs. subjunctive) and person (self vs. other), and to examine the correlational pattern between these different versions of the…

Driven by Power? Probe Question and Presentation Format Effects on Causal Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perales, Jose C.; Shanks, David R.

2008-01-01

It has been proposed that causal power (defined as the probability with which a candidate cause would produce an effect in the absence of any other background causes) can be intuitively computed from cause-effect covariation information. Estimation of power is assumed to require a special type of counterfactual probe question, worded to remove…

The Effects of Task Complexity and Input Frequency on the Acquisition of the Past Counterfactual Construction through Recasts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Révész, Andrea; Sachs, Rebecca; Hama, Mika

2014-01-01

This investigation examined two techniques that may help learners focus on second language (L2) constructions when recasts are provided during meaning-based communicative activities: altering the cognitive complexity of tasks and manipulating the input frequency distributions of target constructions. We first independently assessed the validity of…

Can Eyewitnesses Correct for External Influences on Their Lineup Identifications? The Actual/Counterfactual Assessment Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charman, Steve D.; Wells, Gary L.

2008-01-01

Real-world eyewitnesses are often asked whether their lineup responses were affected by various external influences, but it is unknown whether they can accurately answer these types of questions. The witness-report-of-influence mental-correction model is proposed to explain witnesses' reports of influence. Two experiments used a new paradigm (the…

Causes of Educational Segregation in Sweden--School Choice or Residential Segregation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang Hansen, Kajsa; Gustafsson, Jan-Eric

2016-01-01

The aims of the study were to examine changes in school segregation across different types of municipalities between 1998 and 2011 in Sweden, and to explore the extent to which these changes are the consequences of school choice. Multilevel models were applied to register data using a counterfactual approach. The results showed that school…

Into the Wild Country: Epistemic Issues in Professional Guidelines for Palliative Sedation in End-of-Life Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wackers, Ger

2015-01-01

End-of-life care is an important object of governance. Using the linguistic notions of polysemy, metaphorical blending and counterfactual reasoning, this paper critically examines epistemic issues in professional guidelines for palliative sedation of the dying. As a last resort option, palliative sedation is described as the intentional,…

Factors Influencing Interventions on Behalf of Victims of Bullying: A Counterfactual Approach to the Social Cognitions of Outsiders and Defenders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pronk, Jeroen; Olthof, Tjeert; Goossens, Frits A.

2016-01-01

While both outsiders and defenders have antibullying attitudes, only defenders have the reputation to defend victims. However, outsiders--despite their reputation of avoiding involvement in bullying--do receive some defender nominations and thus defend victims at least occasionally. This study investigated the relationship between these behavioral…

Neurotoxic lesions of ventrolateral prefrontal cortex impair object-in-place scene memory

PubMed Central

Wilson, Charles R E; Gaffan, David; Mitchell, Anna S; Baxter, Mark G

2007-01-01

Disconnection of the frontal lobe from the inferotemporal cortex produces deficits in a number of cognitive tasks that require the application of memory-dependent rules to visual stimuli. The specific regions of frontal cortex that interact with the temporal lobe in performance of these tasks remain undefined. One capacity that is impaired by frontal–temporal disconnection is rapid learning of new object-in-place scene problems, in which visual discriminations between two small typographic characters are learned in the context of different visually complex scenes. In the present study, we examined whether neurotoxic lesions of ventrolateral prefrontal cortex in one hemisphere, combined with ablation of inferior temporal cortex in the contralateral hemisphere, would impair learning of new object-in-place scene problems. Male macaque monkeys learned 10 or 20 new object-in-place problems in each daily test session. Unilateral neurotoxic lesions of ventrolateral prefrontal cortex produced by multiple injections of a mixture of ibotenate and N-methyl-d-aspartate did not affect performance. However, when disconnection from inferotemporal cortex was completed by ablating this region contralateral to the neurotoxic prefrontal lesion, new learning was substantially impaired. Sham disconnection (injecting saline instead of neurotoxin contralateral to the inferotemporal lesion) did not affect performance. These findings support two conclusions: first, that the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex is a critical area within the frontal lobe for scene memory; and second, the effects of ablations of prefrontal cortex can be confidently attributed to the loss of cell bodies within the prefrontal cortex rather than to interruption of fibres of passage through the lesioned area. PMID:17445247

Entorhinal volume, aerobic fitness, and recognition memory in healthy young adults: A voxel-based morphometry study.

PubMed

Whiteman, Andrew S; Young, Daniel E; Budson, Andrew E; Stern, Chantal E; Schon, Karin

2016-02-01

Converging evidence supports the hypothesis effects of aerobic exercise and environmental enrichment are beneficial for cognition, in particular for hippocampus-supported learning and memory. Recent work in humans suggests that exercise training induces changes in hippocampal volume, but it is not known if aerobic exercise and fitness also impact the entorhinal cortex. In animal models, aerobic exercise increases expression of growth factors, including brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). This exercise-enhanced expression of growth hormones may boost synaptic plasticity, and neuronal survival and differentiation, potentially supporting function and structure in brain areas including but not limited to the hippocampus. Here, using voxel based morphometry and a standard graded treadmill test to determine cardio-respiratory fitness (Bruce protocol; ·VO2 max), we examined if entorhinal and hippocampal volumes were associated with cardio-respiratory fitness in healthy young adults (N=33). In addition, we examined if volumes were modulated by recognition memory performance and by serum BDNF, a putative marker of synaptic plasticity. Our results show a positive association between volume in right entorhinal cortex and cardio-respiratory fitness. In addition, average gray matter volume in the entorhinal cortex, bilaterally, was positively associated with memory performance. These data extend prior work on the cerebral effects of aerobic exercise and fitness to the entorhinal cortex in healthy young adults thus providing compelling evidence for a relationship between aerobic fitness and structure of the medial temporal lobe memory system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The human brain representation of odor identification.

PubMed

Kjelvik, Grete; Evensmoen, Hallvard R; Brezova, Veronika; Håberg, Asta K

2012-07-01

Odor identification (OI) tests are increasingly used clinically as biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to directly compare the neuronal correlates to identified odors vs. nonidentified odors. Seventeen females with normal olfactory function underwent a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment with postscanning assessment of spontaneous uncued OI. An event-related analysis was performed to compare within-subject activity to spontaneously identified vs. nonidentified odors at the whole brain level, and in anatomic and functional regions of interest (ROIs) in the medial temporal lobe (MTL). Parameter estimate values and blood oxygenated level-dependent (BOLD) signal curves for correctly identified and nonidentified odors were derived from functional ROIs in hippocampus, entorhinal, piriform, and orbitofrontal cortices. Number of activated voxels and max parameter estimate values were obtained from anatomic ROIs in the hippocampus and the entorhinal cortex. At the whole brain level the correct OI gave rise to increased activity in the left entorhinal cortex and secondary olfactory structures, including the orbitofrontal cortex. Increased activation was also observed in fusiform, primary visual, and auditory cortices, inferior frontal plus inferior temporal gyri. The anatomic MTL ROI analysis showed increased activation in the left entorhinal cortex, right hippocampus, and posterior parahippocampal gyri in correct OI. In the entorhinal cortex and hippocampus the BOLD signal increased specifically in response to identified odors and decreased for nonidentified odors. In orbitofrontal and piriform cortices both identified and nonidentified odors gave rise to an increased BOLD signal, but the response to identified odors was significantly greater than that for nonidentified odors. These results support a specific role for entorhinal cortex and hippocampus in OI, whereas piriform and orbitofrontal cortices are active in both smelling and OI. Moreover, episodic as well as semantic memory systems appeared to support OI.

Forelimb training drives transient map reorganization in ipsilateral motor cortex

PubMed Central

Pruitt, David T.; Schmid, Ariel N.; Danaphongse, Tanya T.; Flanagan, Kate E.; Morrison, Robert A.; Kilgard, Michael P.; Rennaker, Robert L.; Hays, Seth A.

2016-01-01

Skilled motor training results in reorganization of contralateral motor cortex movement representations. The ipsilateral motor cortex is believed to play a role in skilled motor control, but little is known about how training influences reorganization of ipsilateral motor representations of the trained limb. To determine whether training results in reorganization of ipsilateral motor cortex maps, rats were trained to perform the isometric pull task, an automated motor task that requires skilled forelimb use. After either 3 or 6 months of training, intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) mapping was performed to document motor representations of the trained forelimb in the hemisphere ipsilateral to that limb. Motor training for 3 months resulted in a robust expansion of right forelimb representation in the right motor cortex, demonstrating that skilled motor training drives map plasticity ipsilateral to the trained limb. After 6 months of training, the right forelimb representation in the right motor cortex was significantly smaller than the representation observed in rats trained for 3 months and similar to untrained controls, consistent with a normalization of motor cortex maps. Forelimb map area was not correlated with performance on the trained task, suggesting that task performance is maintained despite normalization of cortical maps. This study provides new insights into how the ipsilateral cortex changes in response to skilled learning and may inform rehabilitative strategies to enhance cortical plasticity to support recovery after brain injury. PMID:27392641

Forelimb training drives transient map reorganization in ipsilateral motor cortex.

PubMed

Pruitt, David T; Schmid, Ariel N; Danaphongse, Tanya T; Flanagan, Kate E; Morrison, Robert A; Kilgard, Michael P; Rennaker, Robert L; Hays, Seth A

2016-10-15

Skilled motor training results in reorganization of contralateral motor cortex movement representations. The ipsilateral motor cortex is believed to play a role in skilled motor control, but little is known about how training influences reorganization of ipsilateral motor representations of the trained limb. To determine whether training results in reorganization of ipsilateral motor cortex maps, rats were trained to perform the isometric pull task, an automated motor task that requires skilled forelimb use. After either 3 or 6 months of training, intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) mapping was performed to document motor representations of the trained forelimb in the hemisphere ipsilateral to that limb. Motor training for 3 months resulted in a robust expansion of right forelimb representation in the right motor cortex, demonstrating that skilled motor training drives map plasticity ipsilateral to the trained limb. After 6 months of training, the right forelimb representation in the right motor cortex was significantly smaller than the representation observed in rats trained for 3 months and similar to untrained controls, consistent with a normalization of motor cortex maps. Forelimb map area was not correlated with performance on the trained task, suggesting that task performance is maintained despite normalization of cortical maps. This study provides new insights into how the ipsilateral cortex changes in response to skilled learning and may inform rehabilitative strategies to enhance cortical plasticity to support recovery after brain injury. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Beta Peak Frequencies at Rest Correlate with Endogenous GABA+/Cr Concentrations in Sensorimotor Cortex Areas

PubMed Central

Baumgarten, Thomas J.; Oeltzschner, Georg; Hoogenboom, Nienke; Wittsack, Hans-Jörg; Schnitzler, Alfons; Lange, Joachim

2016-01-01

Neuronal oscillatory activity in the beta band (15–30 Hz) is a prominent signal within the human sensorimotor cortex. Computational modeling and pharmacological modulation studies suggest an influence of GABAergic interneurons on the generation of beta band oscillations. Accordingly, studies in humans have demonstrated a correlation between GABA concentrations and power of beta band oscillations. It remains unclear, however, if GABA concentrations also influence beta peak frequencies and whether this influence is present in the sensorimotor cortex at rest and without pharmacological modulation. In the present study, we investigated the relation between endogenous GABA concentration (measured by magnetic resonance spectroscopy) and beta oscillations (measured by magnetoencephalography) at rest in humans. GABA concentrations and beta band oscillations were measured for left and right sensorimotor and occipital cortex areas. A significant positive linear correlation between GABA concentration and beta peak frequency was found for the left sensorimotor cortex, whereas no significant correlations were found for the right sensorimotor and the occipital cortex. The results show a novel connection between endogenous GABA concentration and beta peak frequency at rest. This finding supports previous results that demonstrated a connection between oscillatory beta activity and pharmacologically modulated GABA concentration in the sensorimotor cortex. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that for a predominantly right-handed sample, the correlation between beta band oscillations and endogenous GABA concentrations is evident only in the left sensorimotor cortex. PMID:27258089

Emotional responses to behavioral economic incentives for health behavior change.

PubMed

van der Swaluw, Koen; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Polder, Johan J; Prast, Henriëtte M

2018-03-05

Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals do not get their prize but receive feedback on what their forgone earnings would have been. This counterfactual feedback should provoke anticipated regret and increase commitment to health goals. We explored which emotions were actually expected upon missing out on a prize due to unsuccessful weight loss and which incentive-characteristics influence their likelihood and intensity. Participants reported their expected emotional response after missing out on a prize in one of 12 randomly presented incentive-scenarios, which varied in incentive type, incentive size and deadline distance. Participants primarily reported feeling disappointment, followed by regret. Regret was expected most when losing a lottery prize (vs. a fixed incentive) and intensified with prize size. Multiple features of the participant and the lottery incentive increase the occurrence and intensity of regret. As such, our findings can be helpful in designing behavioral economic incentives that leverage emotions to support health behavior change.

The Russo-Williamson Theses in the social sciences: causal inference drawing on two types of evidence.

PubMed

Claveau, François

2012-12-01

This article examines two theses formulated by Russo and Williamson (2007) in their study of causal inference in the health sciences. The two theses are assessed against evidence from a specific case in the social sciences, i.e., research on the institutional determinants of the aggregate unemployment rate. The first Russo-Williamson Thesis is that a causal claim can only be established when it is jointly supported by difference-making and mechanistic evidence. This thesis is shown not to hold. While researchers in my case study draw extensively on both types of evidence, one causal claim out of the three analyzed is established even though it is exclusively supported by mechanistic evidence. The second Russo-Williamson Thesis is that standard accounts of causality fail to handle the dualist epistemology highlighted in the first Thesis. I argue that a counterfactual-manipulationist account of causality--which is endorsed by many philosophers as well as many social scientists--can perfectly make sense of the typical strategy in my case study to draw on both difference-making and mechanistic evidence; it is just an instance of the common strategy of increasing evidential variety. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective Connectivity Hierarchically Links Temporoparietal and Frontal Areas of the Auditory Dorsal Stream with the Motor Cortex Lip Area during Speech Perception

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murakami, Takenobu; Restle, Julia; Ziemann, Ulf

2012-01-01

A left-hemispheric cortico-cortical network involving areas of the temporoparietal junction (Tpj) and the posterior inferior frontal gyrus (pIFG) is thought to support sensorimotor integration of speech perception into articulatory motor activation, but how this network links with the lip area of the primary motor cortex (M1) during speech…

Trace and Contextual Fear Conditioning Require Neural Activity and NMDA Receptor-Dependent Transmission in the Medial Prefrontal Cortex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilmartin, Marieke R.; Helmstetter, Fred J.

2010-01-01

The contribution of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) to the formation of memory is a subject of considerable recent interest. Notably, the mechanisms supporting memory acquisition in this structure are poorly understood. The mPFC has been implicated in the acquisition of trace fear conditioning, a task that requires the association of a…

Motor cortex embeds muscle-like commands in an untangled population response

PubMed Central

Russo, Abigail A.; Bittner, Sean R.; Perkins, Sean M.; Seely, Jeffrey S.; London, Brian M.; Lara, Antonio H.; Miri, Andrew; Marshall, Najja J.; Kohn, Adam; Jessell, Thomas M.; Abbott, Laurence F.; Cunningham, John P.; Churchland, Mark M.

2018-01-01

Summary Primate motor cortex projects to spinal interneurons and motor neurons, suggesting that motor cortex activity may be dominated by muscle-like commands. Extensive observations during reaching lend support to this view, but evidence remains ambiguous and much-debated. To provide a different perspective, we employed a novel behavioral paradigm that affords extensive comparison between time-evolving neural and muscle activity. We found that single motor cortex neurons displayed many muscle-like properties, but the structure of population activity was not muscle-like. Unlike muscle activity, neural activity was structured to avoid ‘tangling’: moments where similar activity patterns led to dissimilar future patterns. Avoidance of tangling was present across tasks and species. Network models revealed a potential reason for this consistent feature: low tangling confers noise robustness. Finally, we were able to predict motor cortex activity from muscle activity alone, by leveraging the hypothesis that muscle-like commands are embedded in additional structure that yields low tangling. PMID:29398358

Corticofugal modulation of peripheral auditory responses

PubMed Central

Terreros, Gonzalo; Delano, Paul H.

2015-01-01

The auditory efferent system originates in the auditory cortex and projects to the medial geniculate body (MGB), inferior colliculus (IC), cochlear nucleus (CN) and superior olivary complex (SOC) reaching the cochlea through olivocochlear (OC) fibers. This unique neuronal network is organized in several afferent-efferent feedback loops including: the (i) colliculo-thalamic-cortico-collicular; (ii) cortico-(collicular)-OC; and (iii) cortico-(collicular)-CN pathways. Recent experiments demonstrate that blocking ongoing auditory-cortex activity with pharmacological and physical methods modulates the amplitude of cochlear potentials. In addition, auditory-cortex microstimulation independently modulates cochlear sensitivity and the strength of the OC reflex. In this mini-review, anatomical and physiological evidence supporting the presence of a functional efferent network from the auditory cortex to the cochlear receptor is presented. Special emphasis is given to the corticofugal effects on initial auditory processing, that is, on CN, auditory nerve and cochlear responses. A working model of three parallel pathways from the auditory cortex to the cochlea and auditory nerve is proposed. PMID:26483647

Lateral prefrontal cortex is organized into parallel dorsal and ventral streams along the rostro-caudal axis.

PubMed

Blumenfeld, Robert S; Nomura, Emi M; Gratton, Caterina; D'Esposito, Mark

2013-10-01

Anatomical connectivity differences between the dorsal and ventral lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) of the non-human primate strongly suggests that these regions support different functions. However, after years of study, it remains unclear whether these regions are functionally distinct. In contrast, there has been a groundswell of recent studies providing evidence for a rostro-caudal functional organization, along the lateral as well as dorsomedial frontal cortex. Thus, it is not known whether dorsal and ventral regions of lateral PFC form distinct functional networks and how to reconcile any dorso-ventral organization with the medio-lateral and rostro-caudal axes. Here, we used resting-state connectivity data to identify parallel dorsolateral and ventrolateral streams of intrinsic connectivity with the dorsomedial frontal cortex. Moreover, we show that this connectivity follows a rostro-caudal gradient. Our results provide evidence for a novel framework for the intrinsic organization of the frontal cortex that incorporates connections between medio-lateral, dorso-ventral, and rostro-caudal axes.

Opposite hemispheric lateralization effects during speaking and singing at motor cortex, insula and cerebellum.

PubMed

Riecker, A; Ackermann, H; Wildgruber, D; Dogil, G; Grodd, W

2000-06-26

Aside from spoken language, singing represents a second mode of acoustic (auditory-vocal) communication in humans. As a new aspect of brain lateralization, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) revealed two complementary cerebral networks subserving singing and speaking. Reproduction of a non-lyrical tune elicited activation predominantly in the right motor cortex, the right anterior insula, and the left cerebellum whereas the opposite response pattern emerged during a speech task. In contrast to the hemodynamic responses within motor cortex and cerebellum, activation of the intrasylvian cortex turned out to be bound to overt task performance. These findings corroborate the assumption that the left insula supports the coordination of speech articulation. Similarly, the right insula might mediate temporo-spatial control of vocal tract musculature during overt singing. Both speech and melody production require the integration of sound structure or tonal patterns, respectively, with a speaker's emotions and attitudes. Considering the widespread interconnections with premotor cortex and limbic structures, the insula is especially suited for this task.

Prefrontal-Hippocampal Pathways Underlying Inhibitory Control Over Memory

PubMed Central

Anderson, Michael C.; Bunce, Jamie G.; Barbas, Helen

2016-01-01

A key function of the prefrontal cortex is to support inhibitory control over behavior. It is widely believed that this function extends to stopping cognitive processes as well. Consistent with this, mounting evidence establishes the role of the right lateral prefrontal cortex in a clear case of cognitive control: retrieval suppression. Retrieval suppression refers to the ability to intentionally stop the retrieval process that arises when a reminder to a memory appears. Functional imaging data indicates that retrieval suppression involves top-down modulation of hippocampal activity by the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, but the anatomical pathways supporting this inhibitory modulation remain unclear. Here we bridge this gap by integrating key findings about retrieval suppression observed through functional imaging with a detailed consideration of relevant anatomical pathways observed in non-human primates. Focusing selectively on the potential role of the anterior cingulate cortex, we develop two hypotheses about the pathways mediating interactions between lateral prefrontal cortex and the medial temporal lobes during suppression, and their cellular targets: the entorhinal gating hypothesis, and thalamo-hippocampal modulation via the nucleus reuniens. We hypothesize that whereas entorhinal gating is well situated to stop retrieval proactively, thalamo-hippocampal modulation may interrupt an ongoing act of retrieval reactively. Isolating the pathways that underlie retrieval suppression holds the potential to advance our understanding of a range of psychiatric disorders characterized by persistent intrusive thoughts. More broadly, an anatomical account of retrieval suppression would provide a key model system for understanding inhibitory control over cognition. PMID:26642918

Left frontal hub connectivity delays cognitive impairment in autosomal-dominant and sporadic Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Franzmeier, Nicolai; Düzel, Emrah; Jessen, Frank; Buerger, Katharina; Levin, Johannes; Duering, Marco; Dichgans, Martin; Haass, Christian; Suárez-Calvet, Marc; Fagan, Anne M; Paumier, Katrina; Benzinger, Tammie; Masters, Colin L; Morris, John C; Perneczky, Robert; Janowitz, Daniel; Catak, Cihan; Wolfsgruber, Steffen; Wagner, Michael; Teipel, Stefan; Kilimann, Ingo; Ramirez, Alfredo; Rossor, Martin; Jucker, Mathias; Chhatwal, Jasmeer; Spottke, Annika; Boecker, Henning; Brosseron, Frederic; Falkai, Peter; Fliessbach, Klaus; Heneka, Michael T; Laske, Christoph; Nestor, Peter; Peters, Oliver; Fuentes, Manuel; Menne, Felix; Priller, Josef; Spruth, Eike J; Franke, Christiana; Schneider, Anja; Kofler, Barbara; Westerteicher, Christine; Speck, Oliver; Wiltfang, Jens; Bartels, Claudia; Araque Caballero, Miguel Ángel; Metzger, Coraline; Bittner, Daniel; Weiner, Michael; Lee, Jae-Hong; Salloway, Stephen; Danek, Adrian; Goate, Alison; Schofield, Peter R; Bateman, Randall J; Ewers, Michael

2018-04-01

Patients with Alzheimer's disease vary in their ability to sustain cognitive abilities in the presence of brain pathology. A major open question is which brain mechanisms may support higher reserve capacity, i.e. relatively high cognitive performance at a given level of Alzheimer's pathology. Higher functional MRI-assessed functional connectivity of a hub in the left frontal cortex is a core candidate brain mechanism underlying reserve as it is associated with education (i.e. a protective factor often associated with higher reserve) and attenuated cognitive impairment in prodromal Alzheimer's disease. However, no study has yet assessed whether such hub connectivity of the left frontal cortex supports reserve throughout the evolution of pathological brain changes in Alzheimer's disease, including the presymptomatic stage when cognitive decline is subtle. To address this research gap, we obtained cross-sectional resting state functional MRI in 74 participants with autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease, 55 controls from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer's Network and 75 amyloid-positive elderly participants, as well as 41 amyloid-negative cognitively normal elderly subjects from the German Center of Neurodegenerative Diseases multicentre study on biomarkers in sporadic Alzheimer's disease. For each participant, global left frontal cortex connectivity was computed as the average resting state functional connectivity between the left frontal cortex (seed) and each voxel in the grey matter. As a marker of disease stage, we applied estimated years from symptom onset in autosomal dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease and cerebrospinal fluid tau levels in sporadic Alzheimer's disease cases. In both autosomal dominant and sporadic Alzheimer's disease patients, higher levels of left frontal cortex connectivity were correlated with greater education. For autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease, a significant left frontal cortex connectivity × estimated years of onset interaction was found, indicating slower decline of memory and global cognition at higher levels of connectivity. Similarly, in sporadic amyloid-positive elderly subjects, the effect of tau on cognition was attenuated at higher levels of left frontal cortex connectivity. Polynomial regression analysis showed that the trajectory of cognitive decline was shifted towards a later stage of Alzheimer's disease in patients with higher levels of left frontal cortex connectivity. Together, our findings suggest that higher resilience against the development of cognitive impairment throughout the early stages of Alzheimer's disease is at least partially attributable to higher left frontal cortex-hub connectivity.

Dissociating Contributions of the Motor Cortex to Speech Perception and Response Bias by Using Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

PubMed Central

Smalle, Eleonore H. M.; Rogers, Jack; Möttönen, Riikka

2015-01-01

Recent studies using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) have demonstrated that disruptions of the articulatory motor cortex impair performance in demanding speech perception tasks. These findings have been interpreted as support for the idea that the motor cortex is critically involved in speech perception. However, the validity of this interpretation has been called into question, because it is unknown whether the TMS-induced disruptions in the motor cortex affect speech perception or rather response bias. In the present TMS study, we addressed this question by using signal detection theory to calculate sensitivity (i.e., d′) and response bias (i.e., criterion c). We used repetitive TMS to temporarily disrupt the lip or hand representation in the left motor cortex. Participants discriminated pairs of sounds from a “ba”–“da” continuum before TMS, immediately after TMS (i.e., during the period of motor disruption), and after a 30-min break. We found that the sensitivity for between-category pairs was reduced during the disruption of the lip representation. In contrast, disruption of the hand representation temporarily reduced response bias. This double dissociation indicates that the hand motor cortex contributes to response bias during demanding discrimination tasks, whereas the articulatory motor cortex contributes to perception of speech sounds. PMID:25274987

Hemodynamic changes in the breast and frontal cortex of mothers during breastfeeding.

PubMed

Tanimoto, Kimie; Kusaka, Takashi; Nishida, Tomoko; Ogawa, Kayo; Kato, Ikuko; Ijichi, Sonoko; Mikami, Junko; Sobue, Ikuko; Isobe, Kenichi; Itoh, Susumu

2011-10-01

The objective of this study was to confirm physiological reactions in the breast and brain in mothers during breastfeeding and collect basic objective data, aiming at effective support for breastfeeding. Ten healthy women who were exclusively breastfeeding their babies participated in this study. Changes in the concentration of oxygenated Hb (oxyHb) and deoxygenated Hb in the breasts and frontal cortex of these women during breastfeeding lactation were measured using double-channel near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Changes were measured in three conditions: (1) in both breasts; (2) the ipsilateral breast and frontal cortex; and (3) the contralateral breast and frontal cortex. OxyHb and total Hb (totalHb) levels in the bilateral breasts decreased significantly after the onset of breastfeeding in comparison with prebreastfeeding levels. These two values repeatedly increased and decreased thereafter. In the frontal cortex, regardless of which breast was involved, oxyHb and totalHb levels increased significantly in comparison with prebreastfeeding levels. Similar hemodynamic changes occurred simultaneously in the bilateral breasts during breastfeeding regardless of the feeding or nonfeeding side. Hemodynamic changes were also noted in the frontal cortex, but the reactions in the breast and prefrontal cortex were different and not synchronous, confirming that the physiological circulatory dynamics during breastfeeding vary among organs.

A diffusion tensor imaging study of suicide attempters

PubMed Central

Thapa-Chhetry, Binod; Sublette, M. Elizabeth; Sullivan, Gregory M.; Oquendo, Maria A.; Mann, J. John; Parsey, Ramin V.

2014-01-01

Background Few studies have examined white matter abnormalities in suicide attempters using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). This study sought to identify white matter regions altered in individuals with a prior suicide attempt. Methods DTI scans were acquired in 13 suicide attempters with major depressive disorder (MDD), 39 non-attempters with MDD, and 46 healthy participants (HP). Fractional anisotropy (FA) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) was determined in the brain using two methods: region of interest (ROI) and tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS). ROIs were limited a priori to white matter adjacent to the caudal anterior cingulate cortex, rostral anterior cingulate cortex, dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, and medial orbitofrontal cortex. Results Using the ROI approach, suicide attempters had lower FA than MDD non-attempters and HP in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. Uncorrected TBSS results confirmed a significant cluster within the right dorsomedial prefrontal cortex indicating lower FA in suicide attempters compared to non-attempters. There were no differences in ADC when comparing suicide attempters, non-attempters and HP groups using ROI or TBSS methods. Conclusions Low FA in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex was associated with a suicide attempt history. Converging findings from other imaging modalities support this finding, making this region of potential interest in determining the diathesis for suicidal behavior. PMID:24462041

Selectivity in Postencoding Connectivity with High-Level Visual Cortex Is Associated with Reward-Motivated Memory.

PubMed

Murty, Vishnu P; Tompary, Alexa; Adcock, R Alison; Davachi, Lila

2017-01-18

Reward motivation has been demonstrated to enhance declarative memory by facilitating systems-level consolidation. Although high-reward information is often intermixed with lower reward information during an experience, memory for high value information is prioritized. How is this selectivity achieved? One possibility is that postencoding consolidation processes bias memory strengthening to those representations associated with higher reward. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the influence of differential reward motivation on the selectivity of postencoding markers of systems-level memory consolidation. Human participants encoded intermixed, trial-unique memoranda that were associated with either high or low-value during fMRI acquisition. Encoding was interleaved with periods of rest, allowing us to investigate experience-dependent changes in connectivity as they related to later memory. Behaviorally, we found that reward motivation enhanced 24 h associative memory. Analysis of patterns of postencoding connectivity showed that, even though learning trials were intermixed, there was significantly greater connectivity with regions of high-level, category-selective visual cortex associated with high-reward trials. Specifically, increased connectivity of category-selective visual cortex with both the VTA and the anterior hippocampus predicted associative memory for high- but not low-reward memories. Critically, these results were independent of encoding-related connectivity and univariate activity measures. Thus, these findings support a model by which the selective stabilization of memories for salient events is supported by postencoding interactions with sensory cortex associated with reward. Reward motivation is thought to promote memory by supporting memory consolidation. Yet, little is known as to how brain selects relevant information for subsequent consolidation based on reward. We show that experience-dependent changes in connectivity of both the anterior hippocampus and the VTA with high-level visual cortex selectively predicts memory for high-reward memoranda at a 24 h delay. These findings provide evidence for a novel mechanism guiding the consolidation of memories for valuable events, namely, postencoding interactions between neural systems supporting mesolimbic dopamine activation, episodic memory, and perception. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/370537-09$15.00/0.

Prior cocaine exposure disrupts extinction of fear conditioning

PubMed Central

Burke, Kathryn A.; Franz, Theresa M.; Gugsa, Nishan; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

2008-01-01

Psychostimulant exposure has been shown to cause molecular and cellular changes in prefrontal cortex. It has been hypothesized that these drug-induced changes might affect the operation of prefrontal-limbic circuits, disrupting their normal role in controlling behavior and thereby leading to compulsive drug-seeking. To test this hypothesis, we tested cocaine-treated rats in a fear conditioning, inflation, and extinction task, known to depend on medial prefrontal cortex and amygdala. Cocaine-treated rats conditioned and inflated similar to saline controls but displayed slower extinction learning. These results support the hypothesis that control processes in the medial prefrontal cortex are impaired by cocaine exposure. PMID:16847305

Prior cocaine exposure disrupts extinction of fear conditioning.

PubMed

Burke, Kathryn A; Franz, Theresa M; Gugsa, Nishan; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

2006-01-01

Psychostimulant exposure has been shown to cause molecular and cellular changes in prefrontal cortex. It has been hypothesized that these drug-induced changes might affect the operation of prefrontal-limbic circuits, disrupting their normal role in controlling behavior and thereby leading to compulsive drug-seeking. To test this hypothesis, we tested cocaine-treated rats in a fear conditioning, inflation, and extinction task, known to depend on medial prefrontal cortex and amygdala. Cocaine-treated rats conditioned and inflated similar to saline controls but displayed slower extinction learning. These results support the hypothesis that control processes in the medial prefrontal cortex are impaired by cocaine exposure.

Interplay of hippocampus and prefrontal cortex in memory

PubMed Central

Preston, Alison R.; Eichenbaum, Howard

2013-01-01

Recent studies on the hippocampus and the prefrontal cortex have considerably advanced our understanding of the distinct roles of these brain areas in the encoding and retrieval of memories, and of how they interact in the prolonged process by which new memories are consolidated into our permanent storehouse of knowledge. These studies have led to a new model of how the hippocampus forms and replays memories and how the prefrontal cortex engages representations of the meaningful contexts in which related memories occur, as well as how these areas interact during memory retrieval. Furthermore, they have provided new insights into how interactions between the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex support the assimilation of new memories into pre-existing networks of knowledge, called schemas, and how schemas are modified in this process as the foundation of memory consolidation. PMID:24028960

Serial and Parallel Processing in the Primate Auditory Cortex Revisited

PubMed Central

Recanzone, Gregg H.; Cohen, Yale E.

2009-01-01

Over a decade ago it was proposed that the primate auditory cortex is organized in a serial and parallel manner in which there is a dorsal stream processing spatial information and a ventral stream processing non-spatial information. This organization is similar to the “what”/“where” processing of the primate visual cortex. This review will examine several key studies, primarily electrophysiological, that have tested this hypothesis. We also review several human imaging studies that have attempted to define these processing streams in the human auditory cortex. While there is good evidence that spatial information is processed along a particular series of cortical areas, the support for a non-spatial processing stream is not as strong. Why this should be the case and how to better test this hypothesis is also discussed. PMID:19686779

Beta-band activity and connectivity in sensorimotor and parietal cortex are important for accurate motor performance.

PubMed

Chung, Jae W; Ofori, Edward; Misra, Gaurav; Hess, Christopher W; Vaillancourt, David E

2017-01-01

Accurate motor performance may depend on the scaling of distinct oscillatory activity within the motor cortex and effective neural communication between the motor cortex and other brain areas. Oscillatory activity within the beta-band (13-30Hz) has been suggested to provide distinct functional roles for attention and sensorimotor control, yet it remains unclear how beta-band and other oscillatory activity within and between cortical regions is coordinated to enhance motor performance. We explore this open issue by simultaneously measuring high-density cortical activity and elbow flexor and extensor neuromuscular activity during ballistic movements, and manipulating error using high and low visual gain across three target distances. Compared with low visual gain, high visual gain decreased movement errors at each distance. Group analyses in 3D source-space revealed increased theta-, alpha-, and beta-band desynchronization of the contralateral motor cortex and medial parietal cortex in high visual gain conditions and this corresponded to reduced movement error. Dynamic causal modeling was used to compute connectivity between motor cortex and parietal cortex. Analyses revealed that gain affected the directionally-specific connectivity across broadband frequencies from parietal to sensorimotor cortex but not from sensorimotor cortex to parietal cortex. These new findings provide support for the interpretation that broad-band oscillations in theta, alpha, and beta frequency bands within sensorimotor and parietal cortex coordinate to facilitate accurate upper limb movement. Our findings establish a link between sensorimotor oscillations in the context of online motor performance in common source space across subjects. Specifically, the extent and distinct role of medial parietal cortex to sensorimotor beta connectivity and local domain broadband activity combine in a time and frequency manner to assist ballistic movements. These findings can serve as a model to examine whether similar source space EEG dynamics exhibit different time-frequency changes in individuals with neurological disorders that cause movement errors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Medial Frontal Cortex in Action Anticipation in Professional Badminton Players.

PubMed

Xu, Huan; Wang, Pin; Ye, Zhuo'er; Di, Xin; Xu, Guiping; Mo, Lei; Lin, Huiyan; Rao, Hengyi; Jin, Hua

2016-01-01

Some studies show that the medial frontal cortex is associated with more skilled action anticipation, while similar findings are not observed in some other studies, possibly due to the stimuli employed and the participants used as the control group. In addition, no studies have investigated whether there is any functional connectivity between the medial frontal cortex and other brain regions in more skilled action anticipation. Therefore, the present study aimed to re-investigate how the medial frontal cortex is involved in more skilled action anticipation by circumventing the limitations of previous research and to investigate that the medial frontal cortex functionally connected with other brain regions involved in action processing in more skilled action anticipation. To this end, professional badminton players and novices were asked to anticipate the landing position of the shuttlecock while watching badminton match videos or to judge the gender of the players in the matches. The video clips ended right at the point that the shuttlecock and the racket came into contact to reduce the effect of information about the trajectory of the shuttlecock. Novices who lacked training and watching experience were recruited for the control group to reduce the effect of sport-related experience on the medial frontal cortex. Blood oxygenation level-dependent activation was assessed by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to novices, badminton players exhibited stronger activation in the left medial frontal cortex during action anticipation and greater functional connectivity between left medial frontal cortex and some other brain regions (e.g., right posterior cingulate cortex). Therefore, the present study supports the position that the medial frontal cortex plays a role in more skilled action anticipation and that there is a specific brain network for more skilled action anticipation that involves right posterior cingulate cortex, right fusiform gyrus, right inferior parietal lobule, left insula and particularly, and left medial frontal cortex.

The Role of Medial Frontal Cortex in Action Anticipation in Professional Badminton Players

PubMed Central

Xu, Huan; Wang, Pin; Ye, Zhuo’er; Di, Xin; Xu, Guiping; Mo, Lei; Lin, Huiyan; Rao, Hengyi; Jin, Hua

2016-01-01

Some studies show that the medial frontal cortex is associated with more skilled action anticipation, while similar findings are not observed in some other studies, possibly due to the stimuli employed and the participants used as the control group. In addition, no studies have investigated whether there is any functional connectivity between the medial frontal cortex and other brain regions in more skilled action anticipation. Therefore, the present study aimed to re-investigate how the medial frontal cortex is involved in more skilled action anticipation by circumventing the limitations of previous research and to investigate that the medial frontal cortex functionally connected with other brain regions involved in action processing in more skilled action anticipation. To this end, professional badminton players and novices were asked to anticipate the landing position of the shuttlecock while watching badminton match videos or to judge the gender of the players in the matches. The video clips ended right at the point that the shuttlecock and the racket came into contact to reduce the effect of information about the trajectory of the shuttlecock. Novices who lacked training and watching experience were recruited for the control group to reduce the effect of sport-related experience on the medial frontal cortex. Blood oxygenation level-dependent activation was assessed by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to novices, badminton players exhibited stronger activation in the left medial frontal cortex during action anticipation and greater functional connectivity between left medial frontal cortex and some other brain regions (e.g., right posterior cingulate cortex). Therefore, the present study supports the position that the medial frontal cortex plays a role in more skilled action anticipation and that there is a specific brain network for more skilled action anticipation that involves right posterior cingulate cortex, right fusiform gyrus, right inferior parietal lobule, left insula and particularly, and left medial frontal cortex. PMID:27909422

Causal inference in economics and marketing

PubMed Central

Varian, Hal R.

2016-01-01

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

Evaluating Math Recovery: Assessing the Causal Impact of a Diagnostic Tutoring Program on Student Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Thomas M.; Cobb, Paul; Farran, Dale C.; Cordray, David S.; Munter, Charles

2013-01-01

Mathematics Recovery (MR) is designed to identify first graders who are struggling in mathematics and provide them with intensive one-to-one tutoring. We report findings from a 2-year evaluation of MR conducted in 20 elementary schools across five districts in two states. The design allowed for the estimation of the counterfactual growth…

Protocol for Direct Counterfactual Quantum Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salih, Hatim; Li, Zheng-Hong; Al-Amri, M.; Zubairy, M. Suhail

2013-04-01

It has long been assumed in physics that for information to travel between two parties in empty space, “Alice” and “Bob,” physical particles have to travel between them. Here, using the “chained” quantum Zeno effect, we show how, in the ideal asymptotic limit, information can be transferred between Alice and Bob without any physical particles traveling between them.

The Dynamics of the Evolution of the Black-White Test Score Gap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sohn, Kitae

2012-01-01

We apply a quantile version of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to estimate the counterfactual distribution of the test scores of Black students. In the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 (ECLS-K), we find that the gap initially appears only at the top of the distribution of test scores. As children age, however,…

Note from North America: The Road Not Taken, the Data Not Recorded

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alper, Paul

2014-01-01

In 1916 Robert Frost published his famous poem, "The Road Not Taken," in which he muses about what might have been had he chosen a different path, made a different choice. While counterfactual arguments in general can often lead to vacuous nowheres, frequently in statistics the data that are not presented actually exist, in a sense,…

Counterfactual thinking in patients with amnesia

PubMed Central

Mullally, Sinéad L; Maguire, Eleanor A

2014-01-01

We often engage in counterfactual (CF) thinking, which involves reflecting on “what might have been.” Creating alternative versions of reality seems to have parallels with recollecting the past and imagining the future in requiring the simulation of internally generated models of complex events. Given that episodic memory and imagining the future are impaired in patients with hippocampal damage and amnesia, we wondered whether successful CF thinking also depends upon the integrity of the hippocampus. Here using two nonepisodic CF thinking tasks, we found that patients with bilateral hippocampal damage and amnesia performed comparably with matched controls. They could deconstruct reality, add in and recombine elements, change relations between temporal sequences of events, enabling them to determine plausible alternatives of complex episodes. A difference between the patients and control participants was evident, however, in the patients' subtle avoidance of CF simulations that required the construction of an internal spatial representation. Overall, our findings suggest that mental simulation in the form of nonepisodic CF thinking does not seem to depend upon the hippocampus unless there is the added requirement for construction of a coherent spatial scene within which to play out scenarios. © 2014 The Authors. Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:24978690

Interpretations of quantum mechanics, joint measurement of incompatible observables, and counterfactual definiteness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Muynck, W. M.; de Baere, W.; Martens, H.

1994-12-01

The validity of the conclusion to the nonlocality of quantum mechanics, accepted widely today as the only reasonable solution to the EPR and Bell issues, is questioned and criticized. Arguments are presented which remove the compelling character of this conclusion and make clear that it is not the most obvious solution. Alternative solutions are developed which are free of the contradictions related with the nonlocality conclusion. Firstly, the dependence on the adopted interpretation is shown, with the conclusion that the alleged nonlocality property of the quantum formalism may have been reached on the basis of an interpretation that is unnecessarily restrictive. Secondly, by extending the conventional quantum formalism along the lines of Ludwig and Davies it is shown that the Bell problem may be related to complementarity rather than to nonlocality. Finally, the dependence on counterfactual reasoning is critically examined. It appears that locality on the quantum level may still be retained provided one accepts a newly proposed principle of nonreproducibility at the individual quantum level as an alternative of quantum nonlocality. It is concluded that the locality principle can retain its general validity, in full conformity with all experimental data.

Counterfactual thinking in patients with amnesia.

PubMed

Mullally, Sinéad L; Maguire, Eleanor A

2014-11-01

We often engage in counterfactual (CF) thinking, which involves reflecting on "what might have been." Creating alternative versions of reality seems to have parallels with recollecting the past and imagining the future in requiring the simulation of internally generated models of complex events. Given that episodic memory and imagining the future are impaired in patients with hippocampal damage and amnesia, we wondered whether successful CF thinking also depends upon the integrity of the hippocampus. Here using two nonepisodic CF thinking tasks, we found that patients with bilateral hippocampal damage and amnesia performed comparably with matched controls. They could deconstruct reality, add in and recombine elements, change relations between temporal sequences of events, enabling them to determine plausible alternatives of complex episodes. A difference between the patients and control participants was evident, however, in the patients' subtle avoidance of CF simulations that required the construction of an internal spatial representation. Overall, our findings suggest that mental simulation in the form of nonepisodic CF thinking does not seem to depend upon the hippocampus unless there is the added requirement for construction of a coherent spatial scene within which to play out scenarios. Copyright © 2014 THE AUTHORS. HIPPOCAMPUS PUBLISHED BY WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Interpretations of quantum mechanics, joint measurement of incompatible observables, and counterfactual definiteness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muynck, W.M. de; Martens, H.; De Baere, W.

1994-12-01

The validity of the conclusion to the nonlocality of quantum mechanics, accepted widely today as the only reasonable solution to the EPR and Bell issues, is questioned and criticized. Arguments are presented which remove the compelling character of this conclusion and make clear that it is not the most obvious solution. Alternative solutions are developed which are free of the contradictions related with the nonlocality conclusion. Firstly, the dependence on the adopted interpretation is shown, with the conclusion that the alleged nonlocality property of the quantum formalism may have been reached on the basis of an interpretation that is unnecessarilymore » restrictive. Secondly, by extending the conventional quantum formalism along the lines of Ludwig and Davies it is shown that the Bell problem may be related to complementarity rather than to nonlocality. Finally, the dependence on counterfactual reasoning is critically examined. It appears that locality on the quantum level may still be retained provided one accepts a newly proposed principle of nonreproducibility at the individual quantum level as an alternative of quantum nonlocality. It is concluded that the locality principle can retain its general validity, in full conformity with all experimental data.« less

A counterfactual p-value approach for benefit-risk assessment in clinical trials.

PubMed

Zeng, Donglin; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Wei, Rachel; Ding, Beiying; Ke, Chunlei; Jiang, Qi

2015-01-01

Clinical trials generally allow various efficacy and safety outcomes to be collected for health interventions. Benefit-risk assessment is an important issue when evaluating a new drug. Currently, there is a lack of standardized and validated benefit-risk assessment approaches in drug development due to various challenges. To quantify benefits and risks, we propose a counterfactual p-value (CP) approach. Our approach considers a spectrum of weights for weighting benefit-risk values and computes the extreme probabilities of observing the weighted benefit-risk value in one treatment group as if patients were treated in the other treatment group. The proposed approach is applicable to single benefit and single risk outcome as well as multiple benefit and risk outcomes assessment. In addition, the prior information in the weight schemes relevant to the importance of outcomes can be incorporated in the approach. The proposed CPs plot is intuitive with a visualized weight pattern. The average area under CP and preferred probability over time are used for overall treatment comparison and a bootstrap approach is applied for statistical inference. We assess the proposed approach using simulated data with multiple efficacy and safety endpoints and compare its performance with a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis approach.

Use of a counterfactual approach to evaluate the effect of area closures on fishing location in a tropical tuna fishery

PubMed Central

Davies, Tim K.; Mees, Chris C.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

2017-01-01

Spatial closures are widely used in marine conservation and fisheries management and it is important to understand their contribution to achieving management objectives. Many previous evaluations of closed area effects have used before-after comparisons, which, without controlling for a full range of factors, cannot ascribe changes in fleet behaviour to area closures per se. In this study we used a counterfactual approach to disentangle the effect of two closed areas on fishing location from other competing effects on the behaviour of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. Our results revealed an inconsistent effect of the one of the closed areas between years, after taking into account the influence of environmental conditions on fleet behaviour. This suggests that the policy of closing the area per se was not the main driver for the fleet allocating its effort elsewhere. We also showed a marked difference in effect between the two closed areas resulting from their different locations in the fishery area. These findings highlight the need to account for other key fleet behavioural drivers when predicting or evaluating the contribution of area closures to achieving conservation and fishery management objectives. PMID:28355269

The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

PubMed

duPont, William; Noy, Ilan; Okuyama, Yoko; Sawada, Yasuyuki

2015-01-01

We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

Unveiling the curtain of superposition: Recent gedanken and laboratory experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, E.; Elitzur, A. C.

2017-08-01

What is the true meaning of quantum superposition? Can a particle genuinely reside in several places simultaneously? These questions lie at the heart of this paper which presents an updated survey of some important stages in the evolution of the three-boxes paradox, as well as novel conclusions drawn from it. We begin with the original thought experiment of Aharonov and Vaidman, and proceed to its non-counterfactual version. The latter was recently realized by Okamoto and Takeuchi using a quantum router. We then outline a dynamic version of this experiment, where a particle is shown to “disappear” and “re-appear” during the time evolution of the system. This surprising prediction based on self-cancellation of weak values is directly related to our notion of Quantum Oblivion. Finally, we present the non-counterfactual version of this disappearing-reappearing experiment. Within the near future, this last version of the experiment is likely to be realized in the lab, proving the existence of exotic hitherto unknown forms of superposition. With the aid of Bell’s theorem, we prove the inherent nonlocality and nontemporality underlying such pre- and post-selected systems, rendering anomalous weak values ontologically real.

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Glotter, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Smith, Leonard A.; Foster, Ian

2017-01-01

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Use of a counterfactual approach to evaluate the effect of area closures on fishing location in a tropical tuna fishery.

PubMed

Davies, Tim K; Mees, Chris C; Milner-Gulland, E J

2017-01-01

Spatial closures are widely used in marine conservation and fisheries management and it is important to understand their contribution to achieving management objectives. Many previous evaluations of closed area effects have used before-after comparisons, which, without controlling for a full range of factors, cannot ascribe changes in fleet behaviour to area closures per se. In this study we used a counterfactual approach to disentangle the effect of two closed areas on fishing location from other competing effects on the behaviour of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. Our results revealed an inconsistent effect of the one of the closed areas between years, after taking into account the influence of environmental conditions on fleet behaviour. This suggests that the policy of closing the area per se was not the main driver for the fleet allocating its effort elsewhere. We also showed a marked difference in effect between the two closed areas resulting from their different locations in the fishery area. These findings highlight the need to account for other key fleet behavioural drivers when predicting or evaluating the contribution of area closures to achieving conservation and fishery management objectives.

Medial prefrontal cortex supports source memory for self-referenced materials in young and older adults

PubMed Central

Leshikar, Eric D.; Duarte, Audrey

2013-01-01

Behavioral evidence suggests that young and older adults show a benefit in source memory accuracy when processing materials in reference to the self. In the young, activity within the medial prefrontal cortex supports this source memory benefit at study. This investigation examined whether the same neural regions support this memory benefit in both age groups. Using fMRI, participants were scanned while studying and retrieving pictures of objects paired with one of three scenes (source) under self-reference and other-reference conditions. At the time of study, half of the items were presented once and half twice, allowing us to match behavioral performance between groups. Both groups showed equivalent source accuracy benefit for objects encoded self-referentially. Activity in the left dorsal medial prefrontal cortex supported subsequent source memory in both age groups for the self-referenced relative to the other-referenced items. At the time of test, source accuracy for both self- and other-referenced items was supported by a network of regions including the precuneus in both age groups. At both study and test, little in the way of age-differences emerged, suggesting that when matched on behavioral performance young and older adults engage similar regions in support of source memory when processing materials in reference to the self; however, when performance was not matched, age differences in functional recruitment were prevalent. These results suggest that by capitalizing on preserved processes (self-referential encoding), older adults can show improvement in memory for source details which typically are not well remembered relative to the young. PMID:23904335

The processing of unexpected positive response outcomes in the mediofrontal cortex.

PubMed

Ferdinand, Nicola K; Mecklinger, Axel; Kray, Jutta; Gehring, William J

2012-08-29

The human mediofrontal cortex, especially the anterior cingulate cortex, is commonly assumed to contribute to higher cognitive functions like performance monitoring. How exactly this is achieved is currently the subject of lively debate but there is evidence that an event's valence and its expectancy play important roles. One prominent theory, the reinforcement learning theory by Holroyd and colleagues (2002, 2008), assigns a special role to feedback valence, while the prediction of response-outcome (PRO) model by Alexander and Brown (2010, 2011) claims that the mediofrontal cortex is sensitive to unexpected events regardless of their valence. However, paradigms examining this issue have included confounds that fail to separate valence and expectancy. In the present study, we tested the two competing theories of performance monitoring by using an experimental task that separates valence and unexpectedness of performance feedback. The feedback-related negativity of the event-related potential, which is commonly assumed to be a reflection of mediofrontal cortex activity, was elicited not only by unexpected negative feedback, but also by unexpected positive feedback. This implies that the mediofrontal cortex is sensitive to the unexpectedness of events in general rather than their valence and by this supports the PRO model.

Local Circuit Inhibition in the Cerebral Cortex as the source of Gain Control and Untuned Suppression

PubMed Central

Shapley, Robert M.; Xing, Dajun

2012-01-01

Theoretical considerations have led to the concept that the cerebral cortex is operating in a balanced state in which synaptic excitation is approximately balanced by synaptic inhibition from the local cortical circuit. This paper is about the functional consequences of the balanced state in sensory cortex. One consequence is gain control: there is experimental evidence and theoretical support for the idea that local circuit inhibition acts as a local automatic gain control throughout the cortex. Second, inhibition increases cortical feature selectivity: many studies of different sensory cortical areas have reported that suppressive mechanisms contribute to feature selectivity. Synaptic inhibition from the local microcircuit should be untuned (or broadly tuned) for stimulus features because of the microarchitecture of the cortical microcircuit. Untuned inhibition probably is the source of Untuned Suppression that enhances feature selectivity. We studied inhibition’s function in our experiments, guided by a neuronal network model, on orientation selectivity in the primary visual cortex, V1, of the Macaque monkey. Our results revealed that Untuned Suppression, generated by local circuit inhibition, is crucial for the generation of highly orientation-selective cells in V1 cortex. PMID:23036513

A graph-theoretical analysis algorithm for quantifying the transition from sensory input to motor output by an emotional stimulus.

PubMed

Karmonik, Christof; Fung, Steve H; Dulay, M; Verma, A; Grossman, Robert G

2013-01-01

Graph-theoretical analysis algorithms have been used for identifying subnetworks in the human brain during the Default Mode State. Here, these methods are expanded to determine the interaction of the sensory and the motor subnetworks during the performance of an approach-avoidance paradigm utilizing the correlation strength between the signal intensity time courses as measure of synchrony. From functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data of 9 healthy volunteers, two signal time courses, one from the primary visual cortex (sensory input) and one from the motor cortex (motor output) were identified and a correlation difference map was calculated. Graph networks were created from this map and visualized with spring-embedded layouts and 3D layouts in the original anatomical space. Functional clusters in these networks were identified with the MCODE clustering algorithm. Interactions between the sensory sub-network and the motor sub-network were quantified through the interaction strengths of these clusters. The percentages of interactions involving the visual cortex ranged from 85 % to 18 % and the motor cortex ranged from 40 % to 9 %. Other regions with high interactions were: frontal cortex (19 ± 18 %), insula (17 ± 22 %), cuneus (16 ± 15 %), supplementary motor area (SMA, 11 ± 18 %) and subcortical regions (11 ± 10 %). Interactions between motor cortex, SMA and visual cortex accounted for 12 %, between visual cortex and cuneus for 8 % and between motor cortex, SMA and cuneus for 6 % of all interactions. These quantitative findings are supported by the visual impressions from the 2D and 3D network layouts.

Trunk Robot Rehabilitation Training with Active Stepping Reorganizes and Enriches Trunk Motor Cortex Representations in Spinal Transected Rats

PubMed Central

Oza, Chintan S.

2015-01-01

Trunk motor control is crucial for postural stability and propulsion after low thoracic spinal cord injury (SCI) in animals and humans. Robotic rehabilitation aimed at trunk shows promise in SCI animal models and patients. However, little is known about the effect of SCI and robot rehabilitation of trunk on cortical motor representations. We previously showed reorganization of trunk motor cortex after adult SCI. Non-stepping training also exacerbated some SCI-driven plastic changes. Here we examine effects of robot rehabilitation that promotes recovery of hindlimb weight support functions on trunk motor cortex representations. Adult rats spinal transected as neonates (NTX rats) at the T9/10 level significantly improve function with our robot rehabilitation paradigm, whereas treadmill-only trained do not. We used intracortical microstimulation to map motor cortex in two NTX groups: (1) treadmill trained (control group); and (2) robot-assisted treadmill trained (improved function group). We found significant robot rehabilitation-driven changes in motor cortex: (1) caudal trunk motor areas expanded; (2) trunk coactivation at cortex sites increased; (3) richness of trunk cortex motor representations, as examined by cumulative entropy and mutual information for different trunk representations, increased; (4) trunk motor representations in the cortex moved toward more normal topography; and (5) trunk and forelimb motor representations that SCI-driven plasticity and compensations had caused to overlap were segregated. We conclude that effective robot rehabilitation training induces significant reorganization of trunk motor cortex and partially reverses some plastic changes that may be adaptive in non-stepping paraplegia after SCI. PMID:25948267

Ventral-Dorsal Functional Contribution of the Posterior Cingulate Cortex in Human Spatial Orientation: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Burles, Ford; Umiltá, Alberto; McFarlane, Liam H; Potocki, Kendra; Iaria, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

The retrosplenial cortex has long been implicated in human spatial orientation and navigation. However, neural activity peaks labeled "retrosplenial cortex" in human neuroimaging studies investigating spatial orientation often lie significantly outside of the retrosplenial cortex proper. This has led to a large and anatomically heterogenous region being ascribed numerous roles in spatial orientation and navigation. Here, we performed a meta-analysis of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) investigations of spatial orientation and navigation and have identified a ventral-dorsal functional specialization within the posterior cingulate for spatial encoding vs. spatial recall . Generally, ventral portions of the posterior cingulate cortex were more likely to be activated by spatial encoding , i.e., passive viewing of scenes or active navigation without a demand to respond, perform a spatial computation, or localize oneself in the environment. Conversely, dorsal portions of the posterior cingulate cortex were more likely to be activated by cognitive demands to recall spatial information or to produce judgments of distance or direction to non-visible locations or landmarks. The greatly varying resting-state functional connectivity profiles of the ventral (centroids at MNI -22, -60, 6 and 20, -56, 6) and dorsal (centroid at MNI 4, -60, 28) posterior cingulate regions identified in the meta-analysis supported the conclusion that these regions, which would commonly be labeled as "retrosplenial cortex," should be more appropriately referred to as distinct subregions of the posterior cingulate cortex. We suggest that future studies investigating the role of the retrosplenial and posterior cingulate cortex in spatial tasks carefully localize activity in the context of these identifiable subregions.

Neural substrates of decision-making.

PubMed

Broche-Pérez, Y; Herrera Jiménez, L F; Omar-Martínez, E

2016-06-01

Decision-making is the process of selecting a course of action from among 2 or more alternatives by considering the potential outcomes of selecting each option and estimating its consequences in the short, medium and long term. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has traditionally been considered the key neural structure in decision-making process. However, new studies support the hypothesis that describes a complex neural network including both cortical and subcortical structures. The aim of this review is to summarise evidence on the anatomical structures underlying the decision-making process, considering new findings that support the existence of a complex neural network that gives rise to this complex neuropsychological process. Current evidence shows that the cortical structures involved in decision-making include the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This process is assisted by subcortical structures including the amygdala, thalamus, and cerebellum. Findings to date show that both cortical and subcortical brain regions contribute to the decision-making process. The neural basis of decision-making is a complex neural network of cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections which includes subareas of the PFC, limbic structures, and the cerebellum. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to sensory input tunes visual cortex to criticality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shew, Woodrow L.; Clawson, Wesley P.; Pobst, Jeff; Karimipanah, Yahya; Wright, Nathaniel C.; Wessel, Ralf

2015-08-01

A long-standing hypothesis at the interface of physics and neuroscience is that neural networks self-organize to the critical point of a phase transition, thereby optimizing aspects of sensory information processing. This idea is partially supported by strong evidence for critical dynamics observed in the cerebral cortex, but the impact of sensory input on these dynamics is largely unknown. Thus, the foundations of this hypothesis--the self-organization process and how it manifests during strong sensory input--remain unstudied experimentally. Here we show in visual cortex and in a computational model that strong sensory input initially elicits cortical network dynamics that are not critical, but adaptive changes in the network rapidly tune the system to criticality. This conclusion is based on observations of multifaceted scaling laws predicted to occur at criticality. Our findings establish sensory adaptation as a self-organizing mechanism that maintains criticality in visual cortex during sensory information processing.

The Cortex project A quasi-real-time information system to build control systems for high energy physics experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barillere, R.; Cabel, H.; Chan, B.; Goulas, I.; Le Goff, J. M.; Vinot, L.; Willmott, C.; Milcent, H.; Huuskonen, P.

1994-12-01

The Cortex control information system framework is being developed at CERN. It offers basic functions to allow the sharing of information, control and analysis functions; it presents a uniform human interface for such information and functions; it permits upgrades and additions without code modification and it is sufficiently generic to allow its use by most of the existing or future control systems at CERN. Services will include standard interfaces to user-supplied functions, analysis, archive and event management. Cortex does not attempt to carry out the direct data acquisition or control of the devices; these are activities which are highly specific to the application and are best done by commercial systems or user-written programs. Instead, Cortex integrates these application-specific pieces and supports them by supplying other commonly needed facilities such as collaboration, analysis, diagnosis and user assistance.

Expectancy-related changes in firing of dopamine neurons depend on orbitofrontal cortex.

PubMed

Takahashi, Yuji K; Roesch, Matthew R; Wilson, Robert C; Toreson, Kathy; O'Donnell, Patricio; Niv, Yael; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

2011-10-30

The orbitofrontal cortex has been hypothesized to carry information regarding the value of expected rewards. Such information is essential for associative learning, which relies on comparisons between expected and obtained reward for generating instructive error signals. These error signals are thought to be conveyed by dopamine neurons. To test whether orbitofrontal cortex contributes to these error signals, we recorded from dopamine neurons in orbitofrontal-lesioned rats performing a reward learning task. Lesions caused marked changes in dopaminergic error signaling. However, the effect of lesions was not consistent with a simple loss of information regarding expected value. Instead, without orbitofrontal input, dopaminergic error signals failed to reflect internal information about the impending response that distinguished externally similar states leading to differently valued future rewards. These results are consistent with current conceptualizations of orbitofrontal cortex as supporting model-based behavior and suggest an unexpected role for this information in dopaminergic error signaling.

Decomposing interference during Stroop performance into different conflict factors: an event-related fMRI study.

PubMed

Melcher, Tobias; Gruber, Oliver

2009-02-01

In the current event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we sought to trace back Stroop-interference to circumscribed properties of task-irrelevant word information - response-incompatibility, semantic incongruency and task-reference - that we conceive as conflict factors. Thereby, we particularly wanted to disentangle intermingled contributions of semantic conflict and response conflict to the overall Stroop-interference effect. To delineate neural substrates of single factors, we referred to the logics of cognitive subtraction and cognitive conjunction. Moreover, in a second step, we conducted correlation analyses to determine the relationship between neural activations and behavioral interference costs (i.e., conflict-related reaction time (RT) slowing) so as to further elucidate the functional role of the respective brain regions in conflict processing. Response-incompatibility was associated with activation in the left premotor cortex which can be interpreted as indicating motor competition or conflict, i.e., the presence of competing response tendencies. Accordingly, this activation was positively correlated with behavioral conflict costs. Semantic incongruency exhibited specific activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), the bilateral insula, and thalamus as well as in left somatosensory cortex. As supported by the consistent negative correlation with behavioral conflict costs, these activations most probably reflect strengthened control efforts to overcome interference and to ensure adequate task performance. Finally, task-reference elicited activation in the left temporo-polar cortex (TPC) and the right medial superior as well as in left rostroventral prefrontal cortex (rvPFC, sub-threshold activation). As strongly supported by prior studies' findings, this neural activation pattern may underlie residual semantic processing of the task-irrelevant word information.

Frontotemporal neural systems supporting semantic processing in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Peelle, Jonathan E; Powers, John; Cook, Philip A; Smith, Edward E; Grossman, Murray

2014-03-01

We hypothesized that semantic memory for object concepts involves both representations of visual feature knowledge in modality-specific association cortex and heteromodal regions that are important for integrating and organizing this semantic knowledge so that it can be used in a flexible, contextually appropriate manner. We examined this hypothesis in an fMRI study of mild Alzheimer's disease (AD). Participants were presented with pairs of printed words and asked whether the words matched on a given visual-perceptual feature (e.g., guitar, violin: SHAPE). The stimuli probed natural kinds and manufactured objects, and the judgments involved shape or color. We found activation of bilateral ventral temporal cortex and left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during semantic judgments, with AD patients showing less activation of these regions than healthy seniors. Moreover, AD patients showed less ventral temporal activation than did healthy seniors for manufactured objects, but not for natural kinds. We also used diffusion-weighted MRI of white matter to examine fractional anisotropy (FA). Patients with AD showed significantly reduced FA in the superior longitudinal fasciculus and inferior frontal-occipital fasciculus, which carry projections linking temporal and frontal regions of this semantic network. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that semantic memory is supported in part by a large-scale neural network involving modality-specific association cortex, heteromodal association cortex, and projections between these regions. The semantic deficit in AD thus arises from gray matter disease that affects the representation of feature knowledge and processing its content, as well as white matter disease that interrupts the integrated functioning of this large-scale network.

Recognition Memory and the Hippocampus: A Test of the Hippocampal Contribution to Recollection and Familiarity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeneson, Annette; Kirwan, C. Brock; Hopkins, Ramona O.; Wixted, John T.; Squire, Larry R.

2010-01-01

It has been suggested that the hippocampus selectively supports recollection and that adjacent cortex in the medial temporal lobe can support familiarity. Alternatively, it has been suggested that the hippocampus supports both recollection and familiarity. We tested these suggestions by assessing the performance of patients with hippocampal…

Repeatedly pairing vagus nerve stimulation with a movement reorganizes primary motor cortex.

PubMed

Porter, Benjamin A; Khodaparast, Navid; Fayyaz, Tabbassum; Cheung, Ryan J; Ahmed, Syed S; Vrana, William A; Rennaker, Robert L; Kilgard, Michael P

2012-10-01

Although sensory and motor systems support different functions, both systems exhibit experience-dependent cortical plasticity under similar conditions. If mechanisms regulating cortical plasticity are common to sensory and motor cortices, then methods generating plasticity in sensory cortex should be effective in motor cortex. Repeatedly pairing a tone with a brief period of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) increases the proportion of primary auditory cortex responding to the paired tone (Engineer ND, Riley JR, Seale JD, Vrana WA, Shetake J, Sudanagunta SP, Borland MS, Kilgard MP. 2011. Reversing pathological neural activity using targeted plasticity. Nature. 470:101-104). In this study, we predicted that repeatedly pairing VNS with a specific movement would result in an increased representation of that movement in primary motor cortex. To test this hypothesis, we paired VNS with movements of the distal or proximal forelimb in 2 groups of rats. After 5 days of VNS movement pairing, intracranial microstimulation was used to quantify the organization of primary motor cortex. Larger cortical areas were associated with movements paired with VNS. Rats receiving identical motor training without VNS pairing did not exhibit motor cortex map plasticity. These results suggest that pairing VNS with specific events may act as a general method for increasing cortical representations of those events. VNS movement pairing could provide a new approach for treating disorders associated with abnormal movement representations.

False memory for context and true memory for context similarly activate the parahippocampal cortex.

PubMed

Karanian, Jessica M; Slotnick, Scott D

2017-06-01

The role of the parahippocampal cortex is currently a topic of debate. One view posits that the parahippocampal cortex specifically processes spatial layouts and sensory details (i.e., the visual-spatial processing view). In contrast, the other view posits that the parahippocampal cortex more generally processes spatial and non-spatial contexts (i.e., the general contextual processing view). A large number of studies have found that true memories activate the parahippocampal cortex to a greater degree than false memories, which would appear to support the visual-spatial processing view as true memories are typically associated with greater visual-spatial detail than false memories. However, in previous studies, contextual details were also greater for true memories than false memories. Thus, such differential activity in the parahippocampal cortex may have reflected differences in contextual processing, which would challenge the visual-spatial processing view. In the present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we employed a source memory paradigm to investigate the functional role of the parahippocampal cortex during true memory and false memory for contextual information to distinguish between the visual-spatial processing view and the general contextual processing view. During encoding, abstract shapes were presented to the left or right of fixation. During retrieval, old shapes were presented at fixation and participants indicated whether each shape was previously on the "left" or "right" followed by an "unsure", "sure", or "very sure" confidence rating. The conjunction of confident true memories for context and confident false memories for context produced activity in the parahippocampal cortex, which indicates that this region is associated with contextual processing. Furthermore, the direct contrast of true memory and false memory produced activity in the visual cortex but did not produce activity in the parahippocampal cortex. The present evidence suggests that the parahippocampal cortex is associated with general contextual processing rather than only being associated with visual-spatial processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NR2A- and NR2B-Containing NMDA Receptors in the Prelimbic Medial Prefrontal Cortex Differentially Mediate Trace, Delay, and Contextual Fear Conditioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilmartin, Marieke R.; Kwapis, Janine L.; Helmstetter, Fred J.

2013-01-01

Activation of "N"-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDAR) in the prelimbic medial prefrontal cortex (PL mPFC) is necessary for the acquisition of both trace and contextual fear memories, but it is not known how specific NR2 subunits support each association. The NR2B subunit confers unique properties to the NMDAR and may differentially…

A train of electrical pulses applied to the primary auditory cortex evokes a conditioned response in guinea pigs.

PubMed

Okuda, Yuji; Shikata, Hiroshi; Song, Wen-Jie

2011-09-01

As a step to develop auditory prosthesis by cortical stimulation, we tested whether a single train of pulses applied to the primary auditory cortex could elicit classically conditioned behavior in guinea pigs. Animals were trained using a tone as the conditioned stimulus and an electrical shock to the right eyelid as the unconditioned stimulus. After conditioning, a train of 11 pulses applied to the left AI induced the conditioned eye-blink response. Cortical stimulation induced no response after extinction. Our results support the feasibility of auditory prosthesis by electrical stimulation of the cortex. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

Sounds Activate Visual Cortex and Improve Visual Discrimination

PubMed Central

Störmer, Viola S.; Martinez, Antigona; McDonald, John J.; Hillyard, Steven A.

2014-01-01

A recent study in humans (McDonald et al., 2013) found that peripheral, task-irrelevant sounds activated contralateral visual cortex automatically as revealed by an auditory-evoked contralateral occipital positivity (ACOP) recorded from the scalp. The present study investigated the functional significance of this cross-modal activation of visual cortex, in particular whether the sound-evoked ACOP is predictive of improved perceptual processing of a subsequent visual target. A trial-by-trial analysis showed that the ACOP amplitude was markedly larger preceding correct than incorrect pattern discriminations of visual targets that were colocalized with the preceding sound. Dipole modeling of the scalp topography of the ACOP localized its neural generators to the ventrolateral extrastriate visual cortex. These results provide direct evidence that the cross-modal activation of contralateral visual cortex by a spatially nonpredictive but salient sound facilitates the discriminative processing of a subsequent visual target event at the location of the sound. Recordings of event-related potentials to the targets support the hypothesis that the ACOP is a neural consequence of the automatic orienting of visual attention to the location of the sound. PMID:25031419

Fasting mediated increase in p-BAD(ser155) and p-AKT(ser473) in the prefrontal cortex of mice.

PubMed

Pitchaimani, Vigneshwaran; Arumugam, Somasundaram; Thandavarayan, Rajarajan Amirthalingam; Karuppagounder, Vengadeshprabhu; Sreedhar, Remya; Afrin, Rejina; Harima, Meilei; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Miyashita, Shizuka; Nomoto, Mayumi; Sone, Hirohito; Suzuki, Kenji; Watanabe, Kenichi

2014-09-05

BAD-deficient mice and fasting have several common functional roles in seizures, beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) uptake in brain and alteration in counterregulatory hormonal regulation during hypoglycemia. Neuronal specific insulin receptor knockout (NIRKO) mice display impaired counterregulatory hormonal responses during hypoglycemia. In this study we investigated the fasting mediated expression of p-BAD(ser155) and p-AKT(ser473) in different regions of brain (prefrontal cortex, hippocampus, midbrain and hypothalamus). Fasting specifically increases p-BAD(ser155) and p-AKT(ser473) in prefrontal cortex and decreases in other regions of brain. Our results suggest that fasting may increase the uptake BHB by decreasing p-BAD(ser155) in the brain during hypoglycemia except prefrontal cortex and it uncovers specific functional area of p-BAD(ser155) and p-AKT(ser473) that may regulates counter regulatory hormonal response. Overall in support with previous findings, fasting mediated hypoglycemia activates prefrontal cortex insulin signaling which influences the hypothalamic paraventricular nucleus mediated activation of sympathoadrenal hormonal responses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The neurobiological basis of seeing words

PubMed Central

Wandell, Brian A.

2011-01-01

This review summarizes recent ideas about the cortical circuits for seeing words, an important part of the brain system for reading. Historically, the link between the visual cortex and reading has been contentious. One influential position is that the visual cortex plays a minimal role, limited to identifying contours, and that information about these contours is delivered to cortical regions specialized for reading and language. An alternative position is that specializations for seeing words develop within the visual cortex itself. Modern neuroimaging measurements—including both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and diffusion weighted imaging with tractography data—support the position that circuitry for seeing the statistical regularities of word forms develops within the ventral occipitotemporal cortex, which also contains important circuitry for seeing faces, colors, and forms. The review explains new findings about the visual pathways, including visual field maps, as well as new findings about how we see words. The measurements from the two fields are in close cortical proximity, and there are good opportunities for coordinating theoretical ideas about function in the ventral occipitotemporal cortex. PMID:21486296