ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT/COMMUNICATION TOOLS FOR REVITALIZATION OF POTENTIALLY CONTAMINATED SITES CD

EPA Science Inventory

Revitalization of potentially contaminated sites is often at a disadvantage compared to greenfield development. Apart from the lower cost of land in rural areas, redevelopment is very often still seen as a rather complex time- and cost-consuming process. Additionally, the potenti...

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention, cost benefit analysis, spatial distribution of costs and benefits

Cost-effectiveness of the 21-gene assay for guiding adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early breast cancer.

PubMed

Paulden, Mike; Franek, Jacob; Pham, Ba'; Bedard, Philippe L; Trudeau, Maureen; Krahn, Murray

2013-01-01

Adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early breast cancer are complex. The 21-gene assay can potentially aid such decisions, but costs US $4175 per patient. Adjuvant! Online is a freely available decision aid. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using the 21-gene assay in conjunction with Adjuvant! Online, and of providing adjuvant chemotherapy conditional upon risk classification. A probabilistic Markov decision model simulated risk classification, treatment, and the natural history of breast cancer in a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor- and/or progesterone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2/neu-negative early breast cancer. Cost-effectiveness was considered from an Ontario public-payer perspective by deriving the lifetime incremental cost (2012 Canadian dollars) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for each strategy, and the probability each strategy is cost-effective, assuming a willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per QALY. The 21-gene assay has an incremental cost per QALY in patients at low, intermediate, or high Adjuvant Online! risk of $22,440 (probability cost-effective 78.46%), $2,526 (99.40%), or $1,111 (99.82%), respectively. In patients at low (high) 21-gene assay risk, adjuvant chemotherapy increases (reduces) costs and worsens (improves) health outcomes. For patients at intermediate 21-gene assay risk and low, intermediate, or high Adjuvant! Online risk, chemotherapy has an incremental cost per QALY of $44,088 (50.59%), $1,776 (77.65%), or $1,778 (82.31%), respectively. The 21-gene assay appears cost-effective, regardless of Adjuvant! Online risk. Adjuvant chemotherapy appears cost-effective for patients at intermediate or high 21-gene assay risk, although this finding is uncertain in patients at intermediate 21-gene assay and low Adjuvant! Online risk. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial risk sharing with providers in health maintenance organizations, 1999.

PubMed

Gold, Marsha R; Lake, Timothy; Hurley, Robert; Sinclair, Michael

2002-01-01

The transfer of financial risk from health maintenance organizations (HMOs) to providers is controversial. To provide timely national data on these practices, we conducted a telephone survey in 1999 of a multi-staged probability sample of HMOs in 20 of the nation's 60 largest markets, accounting for 86% of all HMO enrollees nationally. Among those sampled, 82% responded. We found that HMOs' provider networks with physicians, hospitals, skilled nursing homes, and home health agencies are complex and multi-tiered Seventy-six percent of HMOs in our study use contracts for their HMO products that involve global, professional services, or hospital risk capitation to intermediate entities. These arrangements account for between 24.5 million and 27.4 million of the 55.9 million commercial and Medicare HMO enrollees in the 60 largest markets. While capitation arrangements are particularly common in California, they are more common elsewhere than many assume. The complex layering of risk sharing and delegation of care management responsibility raise questions about accountability and administrative costs in managed care. Do complex structures provide a way to involve providers more directly in managed care, or do they diffuse authority and add to administrative costs?

Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

PubMed

Antioch, K; Walsh, M

2000-01-01

This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

How Universities Can Map Their Way to Smarter Risk and Cost Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickerson, Jane

2016-01-01

Faced with operational complexities on par with those of a city, larger colleges and universities have long understood the value of taking a strategic approach to understanding and managing enterprise risks. Personnel dedicated to risk analysis and control at these institutions are tasked with taking a holistic view of the exposures, liabilities…

High-Cost Patients Had Substantial Rates Of Leaving Medicare Advantage And Joining Traditional Medicare

PubMed Central

Rahman, Momotazur; Keohane, Laura; Trivedi, Amal N.; Mor, Vincent

2015-01-01

Medicare Advantage payment regulations include risk-adjusted capitated reimbursement, which was implemented to discourage favorable risk selection and encourage the retention of members who incur high costs. However, the extent to which risk-adjusted capitation has succeeded is not clear, especially for members using high-cost services not previously considered in assessments of risk selection. We examined the rates at which participants who used three high-cost services switched between Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare. We found that the switching rate from 2010 to 2011 away from Medicare Advantage and to traditional Medicare exceeded the switching rate in the opposite direction for participants who used long-term nursing home care (17 percent versus 3 percent), short-term nursing home care (9 percent versus 4 percent), and home health care (8 percent versus 3 percent). These results were magnified among people who were enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid. Our findings raise questions about the role of Medicare Advantage plans in serving high-cost patients with complex care needs, who account for a disproportionately high amount of total health care spending. PMID:26438743

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context.

PubMed

Kull, Daniel; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

2013-07-01

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Predicting excess cost for older inpatients with clinical complexity: A retrospective cohort study examining cognition, comorbidities and complications

PubMed Central

Draper, Brian; Berry, Helen; Karmel, Rosemary; Goss, John

2018-01-01

Background Hospital-acquired complications increase length of stay and contribute to poorer patient outcomes. Older adults are known to be at risk for four key hospital-acquired complications (pressure injuries, pneumonia, urinary tract infections and delirium). These complications have been identified as sensitive to nursing characteristics such as staffing levels and level of education. The cost of these complications compared to the cost of admission severity, dementia, other comorbidities or age has not been established. Method To investigate costs associated with nurse-sensitive hospital-acquired complications in an older patient population 157,178 overnight public hospital episodes for all patients over age 50 from one Australian state, 2006/07 were examined. A retrospective cohort study design with linear regression analysis provided modelling of length-of-stay costs. Explanatory variables included patient age, sex, comorbidities, admission severity, dementia status, surgical status and four complications. Extra costs were based on above-average length-of-stay for each patient’s Diagnosis Related Group from hospital discharge data. Results For adults over 50 who have length of stay longer than average for their diagnostic condition, comorbid dementia predicts an extra cost of A$874, (US$1,247); any one of four key complications predicts A$812 (US$1,159); each increase in admission severity score predicts A$295 ($US421); each additional comorbidity predicts A$259 (US$370), and for each year of age above 50 predicts A$20 (US$29) (all estimates significant at p<0.0001). Discussion Hospital-acquired complications and dementia cost more than other kinds of inpatient complexity, but admission severity is a better predictor of excess cost. Because complications are potentially preventable and dementia care in hospitals can be improved, risk-reduction strategies for common complications, particularly for patients with dementia could be cost effective. Conclusions Complications and dementia were found to cost more than other kinds of inpatient complexity. PMID:29474407

Predicting excess cost for older inpatients with clinical complexity: A retrospective cohort study examining cognition, comorbidities and complications.

PubMed

Bail, Kasia; Draper, Brian; Berry, Helen; Karmel, Rosemary; Goss, John

2018-01-01

Hospital-acquired complications increase length of stay and contribute to poorer patient outcomes. Older adults are known to be at risk for four key hospital-acquired complications (pressure injuries, pneumonia, urinary tract infections and delirium). These complications have been identified as sensitive to nursing characteristics such as staffing levels and level of education. The cost of these complications compared to the cost of admission severity, dementia, other comorbidities or age has not been established. To investigate costs associated with nurse-sensitive hospital-acquired complications in an older patient population 157,178 overnight public hospital episodes for all patients over age 50 from one Australian state, 2006/07 were examined. A retrospective cohort study design with linear regression analysis provided modelling of length-of-stay costs. Explanatory variables included patient age, sex, comorbidities, admission severity, dementia status, surgical status and four complications. Extra costs were based on above-average length-of-stay for each patient's Diagnosis Related Group from hospital discharge data. For adults over 50 who have length of stay longer than average for their diagnostic condition, comorbid dementia predicts an extra cost of A$874, (US$1,247); any one of four key complications predicts A$812 (US$1,159); each increase in admission severity score predicts A$295 ($US421); each additional comorbidity predicts A$259 (US$370), and for each year of age above 50 predicts A$20 (US$29) (all estimates significant at p<0.0001). Hospital-acquired complications and dementia cost more than other kinds of inpatient complexity, but admission severity is a better predictor of excess cost. Because complications are potentially preventable and dementia care in hospitals can be improved, risk-reduction strategies for common complications, particularly for patients with dementia could be cost effective. Complications and dementia were found to cost more than other kinds of inpatient complexity.

Identifying and Coordinating Care for Complex Patients

PubMed Central

Rudin, Robert S.; Gidengil, Courtney A.; Predmore, Zachary; Schneider, Eric C.; Sorace, James; Hornstein, Rachel

2017-01-01

Abstract In the United States, a relatively small proportion of complex patients---defined as having multiple comorbidities, high risk for poor outcomes, and high cost---incur most of the nation's health care costs. Improved care coordination and management of complex patients could reduce costs while increasing quality of care. However, care coordination efforts face multiple challenges, such as segmenting populations of complex patients to better match their needs with the design of specific interventions, understanding how to reduce spending, and integrating care coordination programs into providers' care delivery processes. Innovative uses of analytics and health information technology (HIT) may address these challenges. Rudin and colleagues at RAND completed a literature review and held discussions with subject matter experts, reaching the conclusion that analytics and HIT are being used in innovative ways to coordinate care for complex patients but that the capabilities are limited, evidence of their effectiveness is lacking, and challenges are substantial, and important foundational work is still needed. PMID:28845354

Fault Tolerant Considerations and Methods for Guidance and Control Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

multifunction devices such as microprocessors with software. In striving toward the economic goal, however, a cost is incurred in a different coin, i.e...therefore been developed which reduces the software risk to acceptable proportions. Several of the techniques thus developed incur no significant cost ...complex that their design and implementation need computerized tools in order to be cost -effective (in a broad sense, including the capability of

A methodology for spacecraft technology insertion analysis balancing benefit, cost, and risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bearden, David Allen

Emerging technologies are changing the way space missions are developed and implemented. Technology development programs are proceeding with the goal of enhancing spacecraft performance and reducing mass and cost. However, it is often the case that technology insertion assessment activities, in the interest of maximizing performance and/or mass reduction, do not consider synergistic system-level effects. Furthermore, even though technical risks are often identified as a large cost and schedule driver, many design processes ignore effects of cost and schedule uncertainty. This research is based on the hypothesis that technology selection is a problem of balancing interrelated (and potentially competing) objectives. Current spacecraft technology selection approaches are summarized, and a Methodology for Evaluating and Ranking Insertion of Technology (MERIT) that expands on these practices to attack otherwise unsolved problems is demonstrated. MERIT combines the modern techniques of technology maturity measures, parametric models, genetic algorithms, and risk assessment (cost and schedule) in a unique manner to resolve very difficult issues including: user-generated uncertainty, relationships between cost/schedule and complexity, and technology "portfolio" management. While the methodology is sufficiently generic that it may in theory be applied to a number of technology insertion problems, this research focuses on application to the specific case of small (<500 kg) satellite design. Small satellite missions are of particular interest because they are often developed under rigid programmatic (cost and schedule) constraints and are motivated to introduce advanced technologies into the design. MERIT is demonstrated for programs procured under varying conditions and constraints such as stringent performance goals, not-to-exceed costs, or hard schedule requirements. MERIT'S contributions to the engineering community are its: unique coupling of the aspects of performance, cost, and schedule; assessment of system level impacts of technology insertion; procedures for estimating uncertainties (risks) associated with advanced technology; and application of heuristics to facilitate informed system-level technology utilization decisions earlier in the conceptual design phase. MERIT extends the state of the art in technology insertion assessment selection practice and, if adopted, may aid designers in determining the configuration of complex systems that meet essential requirements in a timely, cost-effective manner.

Primary urethral reconstruction: the cost minimized approach to the bulbous urethral stricture.

PubMed

Rourke, Keith F; Jordan, Gerald H

2005-04-01

Treatment for urethral stricture disease often requires a choice between readily available direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) and highly efficacious but more technically complex open urethral reconstruction. Using the short segment bulbous urethral stricture as a model, we determined which strategy is less costly. The costs of DVIU and open urethral reconstruction with stricture excision and primary anastomosis for a 2 cm bulbous urethral stricture were compared using a cost minimization decision analysis model. Clinical probability estimates for the DVIU treatment arm were the risk of bleeding, urinary tract infection and the risk of stricture recurrence. Estimates for the primary urethral reconstruction strategy were the risk of wound complications, complications of exaggerated lithotomy and the risk of treatment failure. Direct third party payer costs were determined in 2002 United States dollars. The model predicted that treatment with DVIU was more costly (17,747 dollars per patient) than immediate open urethral reconstruction (16,444 dollars per patient). This yielded an incremental cost savings of $1,304 per patient, favoring urethral reconstruction. Sensitivity analysis revealed that primary treatment with urethroplasty was economically advantageous within the range of clinically relevant events. Treatment with DVIU became more favorable when the long-term risk of stricture recurrence after DVIU was less than 60%. Treatment for short segment bulbous urethral strictures with primary reconstruction is less costly than treatment with DVIU. From a fiscal standpoint urethral reconstruction should be considered over DVIU in the majority of clinical circumstances.

Fuel Tank Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-11-01

the high risk of fuel cells damaging as a consequence of the unfolding and refolding operations. - Difficulties to perform acceptance inspection tests...corners sometimes present in the structures. (See FIG. 6, 7, 8). - Additional installation costs and risk of damaging due to fuel cells anchoring...performed manually by very complex tying operations. (See. FIG. 9). - Risk of damaging of the thicker reinforced zones of the flexible fuel cells where

Youth Risk Assessment in Complex Agency Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groner, Mark R.; Solomon, Jean

2007-01-01

Advancements in the delivery of community-based services and tight utilization management of high-cost treatment options result in youths with serious behavior problems receiving intervention in lower levels of care than was true ten or fifteen years ago. This shift in where services tend to be delivered necessitates enhancement of risk assessment…

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shropshire, D.E.

1997-10-01

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs,more » or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years.« less

Schedule Matters: Understanding the Relationship between Schedule Delays and Costs on Overruns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majerowicz, Walt; Shinn, Stephen A.

2016-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between schedule delays and cost overruns on complex projects. It is generally accepted by many project practitioners that cost overruns are directly related to schedule delays. But what does "directly related to" actually mean? Some reasons or root causes for schedule delays and associated cost overruns are obvious, if only in hindsight. For example, unrealistic estimates, supply chain difficulties, insufficient schedule margin, technical problems, scope changes, or the occurrence of risk events can negatively impact schedule performance. Other factors driving schedule delays and cost overruns may be less obvious and more difficult to quantify. Examples of these less obvious factors include project complexity, flawed estimating assumptions, over-optimism, political factors, "black swan" events, or even poor leadership and communication. Indeed, is it even possible the schedule itself could be a source of delay and subsequent cost overrun? Through literature review, surveys of project practitioners, and the authors' own experience on NASA programs and projects, the authors will categorize and examine the various factors affecting the relationship between project schedule delays and cost growth. The authors will also propose some ideas for organizations to consider to help create an awareness of the factors which could cause or influence schedule delays and associated cost growth on complex projects.

High-Cost Patients Had Substantial Rates Of Leaving Medicare Advantage And Joining Traditional Medicare.

PubMed

Rahman, Momotazur; Keohane, Laura; Trivedi, Amal N; Mor, Vincent

2015-10-01

Medicare Advantage payment regulations include risk-adjusted capitated reimbursement, which was implemented to discourage favorable risk selection and encourage the retention of members who incur high costs. However, the extent to which risk-adjusted capitation has succeeded is not clear, especially for members using high-cost services not previously considered in assessments of risk selection. We examined the rates at which participants who used three high-cost services switched between Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare. We found that the switching rate from 2010 to 2011 away from Medicare Advantage and to traditional Medicare exceeded the switching rate in the opposite direction for participants who used long-term nursing home care (17 percent versus 3 percent), short-term nursing home care (9 percent versus 4 percent), and home health care (8 percent versus 3 percent). These results were magnified among people who were enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid. Our findings raise questions about the role of Medicare Advantage plans in serving high-cost patients with complex care needs, who account for a disproportionately high amount of total health care spending. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Report of the Cost Assessment and Validation Task Force on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

The Cost Assessment and Validation (CAV) Task Force was established for independent review and assessment of cost, schedule and partnership performance on the International Space Station (ISS) Program. The CAV Task Force has made the following key findings: The International Space Station Program has made notable and reasonable progress over the past four years in defining and executing a very challenging and technically complex effort. The Program size, complexity, and ambitious schedule goals were beyond that which could be reasonably achieved within the $2.1 billion annual cap or $17.4 billion total cap. A number of critical risk elements are likely to have an adverse impact on the International Space Station cost and schedule. The schedule uncertainty associated with Russian implementation of joint Partnership agreements is the major threat to the ISS Program. The Fiscal Year (FY) 1999 budget submission to Congress is not adequate to execute the baseline ISS Program, cover normal program growth, and address the known critical risks. Additional annual funding of between $130 million and $250 million will be required. Completion of ISS assembly is likely to be delayed from one to three years beyond December 2003.

Cost Assessment and Validation Task Force on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

The Cost Assessment and Validation (CAV) Task Force was established for independent review and assessment of cost, schedule and partnership performance on the International Space Station (ISS) Program. The CAV Task Force has made the following key findings: The International Space Station Program has made notable and reasonable progress over the past four years in defining and executing a very challenging and technically complex effort; The Program, size, complexity, and ambitious schedule goals were beyond that which could be reasonably achieved within the $2.1 billion annual cap or $17.4 billion total cap; A number of critical risk elements are likely to have an adverse impact on the International Space Station cost and schedule; The schedule uncertainty associated with Russian implementation of joint Partnership agreements is the major threat to the ISS Program; The Fiscal Year (FY) 1999 budget submission to Congress is not adequate to execute the baseline ISS Program, cover normal program, growth, and address the known critical risks. Additional annual funding of between $130 million and $250 million will be required; and Completion of ISS assembly is likely to be delayed from, one to three years beyond December 2003.

Costs of postoperative sepsis: the business case for quality improvement to reduce postoperative sepsis in veterans affairs hospitals.

PubMed

Vaughan-Sarrazin, Mary S; Bayman, Levent; Cullen, Joseph J

2011-08-01

To estimate the incremental costs associated with sepsis as a complication of general surgery, controlling for patient risk factors that may affect costs (eg, surgical complexity and comorbidity) and hospital-level variation in costs. Database analysis. One hundred eighteen Veterans Health Affairs hospitals. A total of 13 878 patients undergoing general surgery during fiscal year 2006 (October 1, 2005, through September 30, 2006). Incremental costs associated with sepsis as a complication of general surgery (controlling for patient risk factors and hospital-level variation of costs), as well as the increase in costs associated with complications that co-occur with sepsis. Costs were estimated using the Veterans Health Affairs Decision Support System, and patient risk factors and postoperative complications were identified in the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Overall, 564 of 13 878 patients undergoing general surgery developed postoperative sepsis, for a rate of 4.1%. The average unadjusted cost for patients with no sepsis was $24 923, whereas the average cost for patients with sepsis was 3.6 times higher at $88 747. In risk-adjusted analyses, the relative costs were 2.28 times greater for patients with sepsis relative to patients without sepsis (95% confidence interval, 2.19-2.38), with the difference in risk-adjusted costs estimated at $26 972 (ie, $21 045 vs $48 017). Sepsis often co-occurred with other types of complications, most frequently with failure to wean the patient from mechanical ventilation after 48 hours (36%), postoperative pneumonia (31%), and reintubation for respiratory or cardiac failure (29%). Costs were highest when sepsis occurred with pneumonia or failure to wean the patient from mechanical ventilation after 48 hours. Given the high cost of treating sepsis, a business case can be made for quality improvement initiatives that reduce the likelihood of postoperative sepsis.

Risk selection and cost shifting in a prospective physician payment system: evidence from Ontario.

PubMed

Kantarevic, Jasmin; Kralj, Boris

2014-04-01

We study the risk-selection and cost-shifting behavior of physicians in a unique capitation payment model in Ontario, using the incentive to enroll and care for complex and vulnerable patients as a case study. This incentive, which is incremental to the regular capitation payment, ceases after the first year of patient enrollment and may therefore impact on the physician's decision to continue to enroll the patient. Furthermore, because the enrolled patients in Ontario can seek care from any provider, the enrolling physician may shift some treatment costs to other providers. Using longitudinal administrative data and a control group of physicians in the fee-for-service model who were eligible for the same incentive, we find no evidence of either patient 'dumping' or cost shifting. These results highlight the need to re-examine the conventional wisdom about risk selection for physician payment models that significantly deviate from the stylized capitation model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

DoD CIO Annual Information Assurance Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-04-01

cyber - warfare group, or a cyber-terrorist driven by ideology, religion, or money. The new warfighter is the cyber-warrior with technical and non-traditional skills. Complicating this new dimension is the need for the Department of Defense (DoD) to change its defensive strategy, because of cost and complexity issues, from the risk-avoidance approach to the risk management

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing Organs On-a-Chip: Chemical Safety Research Collaborators Provide Research Review

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Risk assessors must understand how chemicals impact human systems, including complex tissues and organs. Unfortunately, there are huge data gaps in this area, and current testing methods are costly and time-consuming.

Economic Analysis of Complex Nuclear Fuel Cycles with NE-COST

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganda, Francesco; Dixon, Brent; Hoffman, Edward

The purpose of this work is to present a new methodology, and associated computational tools, developed within the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Fuel Cycle Option Campaign to quantify the economic performance of complex nuclear fuel cycles. The levelized electricity cost at the busbar is generally chosen to quantify and compare the economic performance of different baseload generating technologies, including of nuclear: it is the cost of electricity which renders the risk-adjusted discounted net present value of the investment cash flow equal to zero. The work presented here is focused on the calculation of the levelized cost of electricitymore » of fuel cycles at mass balance equilibrium, which is termed LCAE (Levelized Cost of Electricity at Equilibrium). To alleviate the computational issues associated with the calculation of the LCAE for complex fuel cycles, a novel approach has been developed, which has been called the “island approach” because of its logical structure: a generic complex fuel cycle is subdivided into subsets of fuel cycle facilities, called islands, each containing one and only one type of reactor or blanket and an arbitrary number of fuel cycle facilities. A nuclear economic software tool, NE-COST, written in the commercial programming software MATLAB®, has been developed to calculate the LCAE of complex fuel cycles with the “island” computational approach. NE-COST has also been developed with the capability to handle uncertainty: the input parameters (both unit costs and fuel cycle characteristics) can have uncertainty distributions associated with them, and the output can be computed in terms of probability density functions of the LCAE. In this paper NE-COST will be used to quantify, as examples, the economic performance of (1) current Light Water Reactors (LWR) once-through systems; (2) continuous plutonium recycling in Fast Reactors (FR) with driver and blanket; (3) Recycling of plutonium bred in FR into LWR. For each fuel cycle, the contributions to the total LCAE of the main cost components will be identified.« less

Influence of deprivation on health care use, health care costs, and mortality in COPD.

PubMed

Collins, Peter F; Stratton, Rebecca J; Kurukulaaratchy, Ramesh J; Elia, Marinos

Deprivation is associated with the incidence of COPD, but its independent impact on clinical outcomes is still relatively unknown. This study aimed to explore the influence of deprivation on health care use, costs, and survival. A total of 424 outpatients with COPD were assessed for deprivation across two hospitals. The English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) was used to establish a deprivation score for each patient. The relationship between deprivation and 1-year health care use, costs, and mortality was examined, controlling for potential confounding variables (age, malnutrition risk, COPD severity, and smoking status). IMD was significantly and independently associated with emergency hospitalization (β-coefficient 0.022, SE 0.007; p =0.001), length of hospital stay, secondary health care costs (β-coefficient £101, SE £30; p =0.001), and mortality (HR 1.042, 95% CI 1.015-1.070; p =0.002). IMD was inversely related to participation in exercise rehabilitation (OR 0.961, 95% CI 0.930-0.994; p =0.002) and secondary care appointments. Deprivation was also significantly related to modifiable risk factors (smoking status and malnutrition risk). Deprivation in patients with COPD is associated with increased emergency health care use, health care costs, and mortality. Tackling deprivation is complex; however, strategies targeting high-risk groups and modifiable risk factors, such as malnutrition and smoking, could reduce the clinical and economic burden.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crolley, R.; Thompson, M.

There has been a need for a faster and cheaper deployment model for information technology (IT) solutions to address waste management needs at US Department of Energy (DOE) complex sites for years. Budget constraints, challenges in deploying new technologies, frequent travel, and increased job demands for existing employees have prevented IT organizations from staying abreast of new technologies or deploying them quickly. Despite such challenges, IT organizations have added significant value to waste management handling through better worker safety, tracking, characterization, and disposition at DOE complex sites. Systems developed for site-specific missions have broad applicability to waste management challenges andmore » in many cases have been expanded to meet other waste missions. Radio frequency identification (RFID) and global positioning satellite (GPS)-enabled solutions have reduced the risk of radiation exposure and safety risks. New web-based and mobile applications have enabled precision characterization and control of nuclear materials. These solutions have also improved operational efficiencies and shortened schedules, reduced cost, and improved regulatory compliance. Collaboration between US Department of Energy (DOE) complex sites is improving time to delivery and cost efficiencies for waste management missions with new information technologies (IT) such as wireless computing, global positioning satellite (GPS), and radio frequency identification (RFID). Integrated solutions developed at separate DOE complex sites by new technology Centers of Excellence (CoE) have increased material control and accountability, worker safety, and environmental sustainability. CoEs offer other DOE sister sites significant cost and time savings by leveraging their technology expertise in project scoping, implementation, and ongoing operations.« less

An Assessment of Technical and Production Risks of Candidate Low-Cost Attitude/Heading Reference Systems(AHRS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuchnovicz, Daniel; Burgess, Malcolm; Hammers, William

1999-01-01

This report provides an assessment of technical and production risks of candidate low-cost attitude/heading reference systems (AHRS) for use in the Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) airplanes. A low-cost AHRS is a key component of modem "glass cockpit" flight displays for General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The technical capabilities of several candidate low-cost AHRS were examined and described along with the technical issues involved with using all solid-state components for attitude measurement. An economic model was developed which describes the expected profit, rate of return, and volume requirements for the manufacture of low-cost AHRS for GA aircraft in the 2000 to 2020 time frame. The model is the result of interviews with GA airframe manufacturers, avionics manufacturers and historical analysis of avionics of similar complexity. The model shows that a manufacturer will break even after three years of AHRS production, realizing an 18 percent rate of return (23 percent profit) on an investment of $3.5M over the 20 year period. A start-up production estimate showed costs of $6-12M for a new company to build and certify an AHRS from scratch, considered to be a high-risk proposition, versus $0.25-0.75M for an experienced avionics manufacturer to manufacture a design under license, a low-risk proposition.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate targeting strategies: the case of vitamin A supplementation.

PubMed

Loevinsohn, B P; Sutter, R W; Costales, M O

1997-03-01

Given the demonstrated efficacy of vitamin A supplements in reducing childhood mortality, health officials now have to decide whether it would be efficient to target the supplements to high risk children. Decisions about targeting are complex because they depend on a number of factors; the degree of clustering of preventable deaths, the cost of the intervention, the side-effects of the intervention, the cost of identifying the high risk group, and the accuracy of the 'diagnosis' of risk. A cost-effectiveness analysis was used in the Philippines to examine whether vitamin A supplements should be given universally to all children 6-59 months, targeted broadly to children suffering from mild, moderate, or severe malnutrition, or targeted narrowly to pre-schoolers with moderate and severe malnutrition. The first year average cost of the universal approach was US$67.21 per death averted compared to $144.12 and $257.20 for the broad and narrow targeting approaches respectively. When subjected to sensitivity analysis the conclusion about the most cost-effective strategy was robust to changes in underlying assumptions such as the efficacy of supplements, clustering of deaths, and toxicity. Targeting vitamin A supplements to high risk children is not an efficient use of resources. Based on the results of this cost-effectiveness analysis and a consideration of alternate strategies, it is apparent that vitamin A, like immunization, should be provided to all pre-schoolers in the developing world. Issues about targeting public health interventions can usefully be addressed by cost-effectiveness analysis.

Optimization of protocol design: a path to efficient, lower cost clinical trial execution

PubMed Central

Malikova, Marina A

2016-01-01

Managing clinical trials requires strategic planning and efficient execution. In order to achieve a timely delivery of important clinical trials’ outcomes, it is useful to establish standardized trial management guidelines and develop robust scoring methodology for evaluation of study protocol complexity. This review will explore the challenges clinical teams face in developing protocols to ensure that the right patients are enrolled and the right data are collected to demonstrate that a drug is safe and efficacious, while managing study costs and study complexity based on proposed comprehensive scoring model. Key factors to consider when developing protocols and techniques to minimize complexity will be discussed. A methodology to identify processes at planning phase, approaches to increase fiscal return and mitigate fiscal compliance risk for clinical trials will be addressed. PMID:28031939

An Insurer's Care Transition Program Emphasizes Medication Reconciliation, Reduces Readmissions And Costs.

PubMed

Polinski, Jennifer M; Moore, Janice M; Kyrychenko, Pavlo; Gagnon, Michael; Matlin, Olga S; Fredell, Joshua W; Brennan, Troyen A; Shrank, William H

2016-07-01

Adverse drug events and the challenges of clarifying and adhering to complex medication regimens are central drivers of hospital readmissions. Medication reconciliation programs can reduce the incidence of adverse drug events after discharge, but evidence regarding the impact of medication reconciliation on readmission rates and health care costs is less clear. We studied an insurer-initiated care transition program based on medication reconciliation delivered by pharmacists via home visits and telephone and explored its effects on high-risk patients. We examined whether voluntary program participation was associated with improved medication use, reduced readmissions, and savings net of program costs. Program participants had a 50 percent reduced relative risk of readmission within thirty days of discharge and an absolute risk reduction of 11.1 percent. The program saved $2 for every $1 spent. These results represent real-world evidence that insurer-initiated, pharmacist-led care transition programs, focused on but not limited to medication reconciliation, have the potential to both improve clinical outcomes and reduce total costs of care. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Fast mask writers: technology options and considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litt, Lloyd C.; Groves, Timothy; Hughes, Greg

2011-04-01

The semiconductor industry is under constant pressure to reduce production costs even as the complexity of technology increases. Lithography represents the most expensive process due to its high capital equipment costs and the implementation of low-k1 lithographic processes, which have added to the complexity of making masks because of the greater use of optical proximity correction, pixelated masks, and double or triple patterning. Each of these mask technologies allows the production of semiconductors at future nodes while extending the utility of current immersion tools. Low-k1 patterning complexity combined with increased data due to smaller feature sizes is driving extremely long mask write times. While a majority of the industry is willing to accept times of up to 24 hours, evidence suggests that the write times for many masks at the 22 nm node and beyond will be significantly longer. It has been estimated that funding on the order of 50M to 90M for non-recurring engineering (NRE) costs will be required to develop a multiple beam mask writer system, yet the business case to recover this kind of investment is not strong. Moreover, funding such a development poses a high risk for an individual supplier. The structure of the mask fabrication marketplace separates the mask writer equipment customer (the mask supplier) from the final customer (wafer manufacturer) that will be most effected by the increase in mask cost that will result if a high speed mask writer is not available. Since no individual company will likely risk entering this market, some type of industry-wide funding model will be needed.

Managing the unmanageable: the nature and impact of drug risk in physician groups.

PubMed

Lipton, Helene Levens; Agnew, Jonathan D; Stebbins, Marilyn R; Kuo, Angela; Dudley, R Adams

2005-08-01

As drug costs rose in the 1990s, health maintenance organizations (HMOs) began transferring risk for prescription drug expenditures to physician groups. With principal-agent theory as a framework for understanding drug-risk transfer, we used a multiple case-study design to examine the relationship between the level of drug risk that a physician group accepts and the physician group's adoption of drug-use management strategies. The data demonstrated that adoption of drug-use management innovations was not related to level of risk for pharmacy costs and that factors other than drug-risk level (e.g., contracting and data issues, financial and market factors, and physician group assessments of the fairness and incentives of risk contracts) can influence the principal-agent relationship. The data also revealed a novel form of information asymmetry between physicians and HMOs and unexpected failures of HMOs to fully enable their physician-agents. We believe these observations reflect the complexity of relationships in the health care system and have implications for the use of incentives. Based on principal-agent theory and our findings, we offer an alternative approach to drug-risk contracting that reduces physicians responsibility for aspects of drug use that are beyond their control while maintaining the incentives to manage drug costs and use that were the original intent of drug-risk contracting.

In-home behavioral health case management: an integrated model for high-risk populations.

PubMed

Theis, Gerald A; Kozlowski, Deirdre; Behrens, Jenna

2006-01-01

The escalating health care costs attributed to high-risk populations have fueled a need for a proactive approach to deal with people affected by complex mental health issues that often coexist with chronic medical conditions. Through an in-home behavioral health case management (CM) program, patients with mental illnesses (some with coexisting medical conditions) receive integrated medical and mental health services through a disease-management approach that has proven effective in treating high-risk patients.

Complex Flow: Workshop Report; January 17-18, 2012, University of Colorado, Boulder

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2012-06-01

The Department of Energy's Wind Program organized a two-day workshop designed to examine complex wind flow into and out of the wind farm environment and the resulting impacts on the mechanical workings of individual wind turbines. An improved understanding of these processes will subsequently drive down the risk involved for wind energy developers, financiers, and owner/operators, thus driving down the cost of energy.

DBP CONTROL IN DRINKING WATER: COST AND PERFORMANCE

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) is currently attempting to balance the complex trade-offs in chemical and microbial risks associated with controlling disinfection and disinfection byproducts (D/DBP) in drinking water. In attempting to achieve this balance, the...

Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

Long length of hospital stay in children with medical complexity.

PubMed

Gold, Jessica M; Hall, Matt; Shah, Samir S; Thomson, Joanna; Subramony, Anupama; Mahant, Sanjay; Mittal, Vineeta; Wilson, Karen M; Morse, Rustin; Mussman, Grant M; Hametz, Patricia; Montalbano, Amanda; Parikh, Kavita; Ishman, Stacey; O'Neill, Margaret; Berry, Jay G

2016-11-01

Hospitalizations of children with medical complexity (CMC) account for one-half of hospital days in children, with lengths of stays (LOS) that are typically longer than those for children without medical complexity. The objective was to assess the impact of, risk factors for, and variation across children's hospitals regarding long LOS (≥10 days) hospitalizations in CMC. A retrospective study of 954,018 CMC hospitalizations, excluding admissions for neonatal and cancer care, during 2013 to 2014 in 44 children's hospitals. CMC were identified using 3M's Clinical Risk Group categories 6, 7, and 9, representing children with multiple and/or catastrophic chronic conditions. Multivariable regression was used to identify demographic and clinical characteristics associated with LOS ≥10 days. Hospital-level risk-adjusted rates of long LOS generated from these models were compared using a covariance test of the hospitals' random effect. Among CMC, LOS ≥10 days accounted for 14.9% (n = 142,082) of all admissions and 61.8% ($13.7 billion) of hospital costs. The characteristics most strongly associated with LOS ≥10 days were use of intensive care unit (ICU) (odds ratio [OR]: 3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.4-3.5), respiratory complex chronic condition (OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 2.6-2.7), and transfer from another medical facility (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 2.0-2.1). After adjusting for severity, there was significant (P < 0.001) variation in the prevalence of LOS ≥10 days for CMC across children's hospitals (range, 10.3%-21.8%). Long hospitalizations for CMC are costly. Their prevalence varies significantly by type of chronic condition and across children's hospitals. Efforts to reduce hospital costs in CMC might benefit from a focus on prolonged LOS. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2016;11:750-756. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Reducing blood testing in pediatric patients after heart surgery: a quality improvement project.

PubMed

Delgado-Corcoran, Claudia; Bodily, Stephanie; Frank, Deborah U; Witte, Madolin K; Castillo, Ramon; Bratton, Susan L

2014-10-01

To safely optimize blood testing and costs for pediatric cardiac surgical patients without adversely impacting patient outcomes. This is a quality improvement cohort project with pre- and postintervention groups. University-affiliated pediatric cardiac ICU in a tertiary care children's hospital. All patients were surgical patients for whom Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery categories allowed for stratification by complexity. The preintervention group was treated in 2010 and the postintervention group in 2011. Laboratory ordering processes were analyzed, and practice changed to limit standing blood test orders and requires individualized ordering. Three hundred nineteen patients were studied in 2010 and 345 in 2011. Groups were similar in median age, weight, length of stay (ICU length of stay), and Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery category. There was a reduction in the total blood tests per patient (24 vs 38; p < 0.0001) and length of stay adjusted tests per patient-day (10.4 vs 14.4; p = 0.0001) in the postintervention group. The largest test reductions were blood gases and single electrolytes. Adverse outcomes, such as extubation failure (6.4% vs 5.6%), central catheter-associated bloodstream infection (2.2 vs 1.5), and hospital mortality (0.6% vs 0.6%), were not significantly different between the groups. Cost analysis demonstrated an overall laboratory cost savings of 32%. In addition, the volume of packed RBC transfusions was also significantly decreased in the postintervention group among the most complex patients (Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery, 6). Blood testing rates were safely decreased in postoperative pediatric cardiac patients by changing laboratory ordering practices. In addition, packed RBC transfusion was decreased among the most complex patients.

Sustainable Financing of Innovative Therapies: A Review of Approaches.

PubMed

Hollis, Aidan

2016-10-01

The process of innovation is inherently complex, and it occurs within an even more complex institutional environment characterized by incomplete information, market power, and externalities. There are therefore different competing approaches to supporting and financing innovation in medical technologies, which bring their own advantages and disadvantages. This article reviews value- and cost-based pricing, as well direct government funding, and cross-cutting institutional structures. It argues that performance-based risk-sharing agreements are likely to have little effect on the sustainability of financing; that there is a role for cost-based pricing models in some situations; and that the push towards longer exclusivity periods is likely contrary to the interests of industry.

Use of portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and geostatistics for health risk assessment.

PubMed

Yang, Meng; Wang, Cheng; Yang, Zhao-Ping; Yan, Nan; Li, Feng-Ying; Diao, Yi-Wei; Chen, Min-Dong; Li, Hui-Ming; Wang, Jin-Hua; Qian, Xin

2018-05-30

Laboratory analysis of trace metals using inductively coupled plasma (ICP) spectroscopy is not cost effective, and the complex spatial distribution of soil trace metals makes their spatial analysis and prediction problematic. Thus, for the health risk assessment of exposure to trace metals in soils, portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) spectroscopy was used to replace ICP spectroscopy for metal analysis, and robust geostatistical methods were used to identify spatial outliers in trace metal concentrations and to map trace metal distributions. A case study was carried out around an industrial area in Nanjing, China. The results showed that PXRF spectroscopy provided results for trace metal (Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) levels comparable to ICP spectroscopy. The results of the health risk assessment showed that Ni posed a higher non-carcinogenic risk than Cu, Pb and Zn, indicating a higher priority of concern than the other elements. Sampling locations associated with adverse health effects were identified as 'hotspots', and high-risk areas were delineated from risk maps. These 'hotspots' and high-risk areas were in close proximity to and downwind from petrochemical plants, indicating the dominant role of industrial activities as the major sources of trace metals in soils. The approach used in this study could be adopted as a cost-effective methodology for screening 'hotspots' and priority areas of concern for cost-efficient health risk management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost to Set up Common Languages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latora, Vito

Complexity is a highly interdisciplinary science. Although there are drawbacks for researchers to work at the interface of different fields, such as the cost to set up common languages, and the risks associated with not being recognized by any of the well-established scientific communities, some of my recent work indicates that interdisciplinarity can be extremely rewarding. Drawing on large data sets on scientific production during several decades, we have shown that highly interdisciplinary scholars can outperform specialized ones, and that scientists can enhance their performance by seeking collaborators with expertise in various fields. My vision for complexity is based on the added value of its interdisciplinary nature. I list below three research directions that I am personally eager to explore, and that I think will be among the main challenges of complexity in the next 10 years...

Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

PubMed

Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

2015-10-01

Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

2014-12-01

In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors influencing research and development on this critically important topic. Specifically we will focus on how to embed simulation models within an economic framework, how to link fire models with models of wildfire management expenditures, how to evaluate alternative management policies, and how to measure cost-effectiveness.

Stochastic Simulation Using @ Risk for Dairy Business Investment Decisions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy business was developed to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with technology investments. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm system within a partial budgeting fram...

Estimated Cost-Effectiveness, Cost Benefit, and Risk Reduction Associated with an Endocrinologist-Pharmacist Diabetes Intense Medical Management "Tune-Up" Clinic.

PubMed

Hirsch, Jan D; Bounthavong, Mark; Arjmand, Anisa; Ha, David R; Cadiz, Christine L; Zimmerman, Andrew; Ourth, Heather; Morreale, Anthony P; Edelman, Steven V; Morello, Candis M

2017-03-01

In 2012 U.S. diabetes costs were estimated to be $245 billion, with $176 billion related to direct diabetes treatment and associated complications. Although a few studies have reported positive glycemic and economic benefits for diabetes patients treated under primary care physician (PCP)-pharmacist collaborative practice models, no studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an endocrinologist-pharmacist collaborative practice model treating complex diabetes patients versus usual PCP care for similar patients. To estimate the cost-effectiveness and cost benefit of a collaborative endocrinologist-pharmacist Diabetes Intense Medical Management (DIMM) "Tune-Up" clinic for complex diabetes patients versus usual PCP care from 3 perspectives (clinic, health system, payer) and time frames. Data from a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (A1c) ≥ 8% who were referred to the DIMM clinic at the Veterans Affairs San Diego Health System were used for cost analyses against a comparator group of PCP patients meeting the same criteria. The DIMM clinic took more time with patients, compared with usual PCP visits. It provided personalized care in three 60-minute visits over 6 months, combining medication therapy management with patient-specific diabetes education, to achieve A1c treatment goals before discharge back to the PCP. Data for DIMM versus PCP patients were used to evaluate cost-effectiveness and cost benefit. Analyses included incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) at 6 months, 3-year estimated total medical costs avoided and return on investment (ROI), absolute risk reduction of complications, resultant medical costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over 10 years. Base case ICER results indicated that from the clinic perspective, the DIMM clinic costs $21 per additional percentage point of A1c improvement and $115-$164 per additional patient at target A1c goal level compared with the PCP group. From the health system perspective, medical cost avoidance due to improved A1c was $8,793 per DIMM patient versus $3,506 per PCP patient (P = 0.009), resulting in an ROI of $9.01 per dollar spent. From the payer perspective, DIMM patients had estimated lower total medical costs, a greater number of QALYs gained, and appreciable risk reductions for diabetes-related complications over 2-, 5- and 10-year time frames, indicating that the DIMM clinic was dominant. Sensitivity analyses indicated results were robust, and overall conclusions did not change appreciably when key parameters (including DIMM clinic effectiveness and cost) were varied within plausible ranges. The DIMM clinic endocrinologist-pharmacist collaborative practice model, in which the pharmacist spent more time providing personalized care, improved glycemic control at a minimal cost per additional A1c benefit gained and produced greater cost avoidance, appreciable ROI, reduction in long-term complication risk, and lower cost for a greater gain in QALYs. Overall, the DIMM clinic represents an advanced pharmacy practice model with proven clinical and economic benefits from multiple perspectives for patients with T2DM and high medication and comorbidity complexity. No outside funding supported this study. The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Preliminary versions of the study data were presented in abstract form at the American Pharmacists Association Annual Meeting & Exposition; March 27, 2015; San Diego, California, and the Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy Annual Meeting; April 21, 2016; San Francisco, California. Study concept and design were contributed by Hirsch, Bounthavong, and Edelman, along with Morello and Morreale. Arjmand, Ourth, Ha, Cadiz, and Zimmerman collected the data. Data interpretation was performed by Ha, Morreale, and Morello, along with Cadiz, Ourth, and Hirsch. The manuscript was written primarily by Hirsch and Zimmerman, along with Arjamand, Ourth, and Morello, and was revised by Hirsch and Cadiz, along with Bounthavong, Ha, Morreale, and Morello.

Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

Data systems and computer science: Software Engineering Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zygielbaum, Arthur I.

1991-01-01

An external review of the Integrated Technology Plan for the Civil Space Program is presented. This review is specifically concerned with the Software Engineering Program. The goals of the Software Engineering Program are as follows: (1) improve NASA's ability to manage development, operation, and maintenance of complex software systems; (2) decrease NASA's cost and risk in engineering complex software systems; and (3) provide technology to assure safety and reliability of software in mission critical applications.

Hospital costs estimation and prediction as a function of patient and admission characteristics.

PubMed

Ramiarina, Robert; Almeida, Renan Mvr; Pereira, Wagner Ca

2008-01-01

The present work analyzed the association between hospital costs and patient admission characteristics in a general public hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The unit costs method was used to estimate inpatient day costs associated to specific hospital clinics. With this aim, three "cost centers" were defined in order to group direct and indirect expenses pertaining to the clinics. After the costs were estimated, a standard linear regression model was developed for correlating cost units and their putative predictors (the patients gender and age, the admission type (urgency/elective), ICU admission (yes/no), blood transfusion (yes/no), the admission outcome (death/no death), the complexity of the medical procedures performed, and a risk-adjustment index). Data were collected for 3100 patients, January 2001-January 2003. Average inpatient costs across clinics ranged from (US$) 1135 [Orthopedics] to 3101 [Cardiology]. Costs increased according to increases in the risk-adjustment index in all clinics, and the index was statistically significant in all clinics except Urology, General surgery, and Clinical medicine. The occupation rate was inversely correlated to costs, and age had no association with costs. The (adjusted) per cent of explained variance varied between 36.3% [Clinical medicine] and 55.1% [Thoracic surgery clinic]. The estimates are an important step towards the standardization of hospital costs calculation, especially for countries that lack formal hospital accounting systems.

Impact of Primary Care Intensive Management on High-Risk Veterans' Costs and Utilization: A Randomized Quality Improvement Trial.

PubMed

Yoon, Jean; Chang, Evelyn; Rubenstein, Lisa V; Park, Angel; Zulman, Donna M; Stockdale, Susan; Ong, Michael K; Atkins, David; Schectman, Gordon; Asch, Steven M

2018-06-05

Primary care models that offer comprehensive, accessible care to all patients may provide insufficient resources to meet the needs of patients with complex conditions who have the greatest risk for hospitalization. To assess whether augmenting usual primary care with team-based intensive management lowers utilization and costs for high-risk patients. Randomized quality improvement trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03100526). 5 U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers. Primary care patients at high risk for hospitalization who had a recent acute care episode. Locally tailored intensive management programs providing care coordination, goals assessment, health coaching, medication reconciliation, and home visits through an interdisciplinary team, including a physician or nurse practitioner, a nurse, and psychosocial experts. Utilization and costs (including intensive management program expenses) 12 months before and after randomization. 2210 patients were randomly assigned, 1105 to intensive management and 1105 to usual care. Patients had a mean age of 63 years and an average of 7 chronic conditions; 90% were men. Of the patients assigned to intensive management, 487 (44%) received intensive outpatient care (that is, ≥3 encounters in person or by telephone) and 204 (18%) received limited intervention. From the pre- to postrandomization periods, mean inpatient costs decreased more for the intensive management than the usual care group (-$2164 [95% CI, -$7916 to $3587]). Outpatient costs increased more for the intensive management than the usual care group ($2636 [CI, $524 to $4748]), driven by greater use of primary care, home care, telephone care, and telehealth. Mean total costs were similar in the 2 groups before and after randomization. Sites took up to several months to contact eligible patients, limiting the time between treatment and outcome assessment. Only VA costs were assessed. High-risk patients with access to an intensive management program received more outpatient care with no increase in total costs. Veterans Health Administration Primary Care Services.

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used tomore » determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

Using Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Modeling to Quantitatively Predict the Developmental Toxicity of Halogenated Azole compounds

EPA Science Inventory

Developmental toxicity is a relevant endpoint for the comprehensive assessment of human health risk from chemical exposure. However, animal developmental toxicity studies remain unavailable for many environmental contaminants due to the complexity and cost of these types of analy...

Disease management: a leap of faith to lower-cost, higher-quality health care.

PubMed

Short, Ashley; Mays, Glen; Mittler, Jessica

2003-10-01

With managed care's promise to reduce costs and improve quality waning, employers and health plans are exploring more targeted ways to control rapidly rising health costs. Disease management programs, which focus on patients with chronic conditions such as asthma and diabetes, are growing in popularity, according to findings from the Center for Studying Health System Change's (HSC) 2002-03 site visits to 12 nationally representative communities. In addition to condition-based disease management programs, some health plans and employers are using intensive case management services to coordinate care for high-risk patients with potentially costly and complex medical conditions. Despite high expectations, evidence of both disease management and case management programs' success in controlling costs and improving quality remains limited.

[Intraluminal/endoscopic procedures in the treatment of obesity].

PubMed

Martínez-Ortega, Antonio Jesús; Aliaga-Verdugo, Alberto; Pereira-Cunill, José Luis; Jiménez-Varo, Ignacio; Romero-Lluch, Ana R; Sobrino-Rodríguez, Salvador; Belda-Laguna, Ovidio; García-Luna, Pedro Pablo

2014-05-01

Few effective therapeutic tools are currently available to fight the increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated comorbidities. Bariatric surgery is the only treatment with proven long-term effectiveness, but is associated to a high surgical risk and significant economic costs because of its technical complexity and the characteristics of patients. This is leading to development of new endoscopic procedures with less clinical risks and economic costs, while maintaining the benefits in terms of morbidity and mortality, which could even serve as a bridging element before surgery in cases where this is unavoidable, allowing for preoperative weight loss and control of comorbidities in order to improve anesthetic risks and possible complications. The purpose of this review was to analyze the most relevant and promising endoscopic techniques currently available. Copyright © 2013 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Using System Mass (SM), Equivalent Mass (EM), Equivalent System Mass (ESM) or Life Cycle Mass (LCM) in Advanced Life Support (ALS) Reporting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2003-01-01

The Advanced Life Support (ALS) has used a single number, Equivalent System Mass (ESM), for both reporting progress and technology selection. ESM is the launch mass required to provide a space system. ESM indicates launch cost. ESM alone is inadequate for technology selection, which should include other metrics such as Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and also consider perfom.arxe 2nd risk. ESM has proven difficult to implement as a reporting metric, partly because it includes non-mass technology selection factors. Since it will not be used exclusively for technology selection, a new reporting metric can be made easier to compute and explain. Systems design trades-off performance, cost, and risk, but a risk weighted cost/benefit metric would be too complex to report. Since life support has fixed requirements, different systems usually have roughly equal performance. Risk is important since failure can harm the crew, but it is difficult to treat simply. Cost is not easy to estimate, but preliminary space system cost estimates are usually based on mass, which is better estimated than cost. Amass-based cost estimate, similar to ESM, would be a good single reporting metric. The paper defines and compares four mass-based cost estimates, Equivalent Mass (EM), Equivalent System Mass (ESM), Life Cycle Mass (LCM), and System Mass (SM). EM is traditional in life support and includes mass, volume, power, cooling and logistics. ESM is the specifically defined ALS metric, which adds crew time and possibly other cost factors to EM. LCM is a new metric, a mass-based estimate of LCC measured in mass units. SM includes only the factors of EM that are originally measured in mass, the hardware and logistics mass. All four mass-based metrics usually give similar comparisons. SM is by far the simplest to compute and easiest to explain.

Digital telephony analysis model and issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keuthan, Lynn M.

1995-09-01

Experts in the fields of digital telephony and communications security have stated the need for an analytical tool for evaluating complex issues. Some important policy issues discussed by experts recently include implementing digital wire-taps, implementation of the 'Clipper Chip', required registration of encryption/decryption keys, and export control of cryptographic equipment. Associated with the implementation of these policies are direct costs resulting from implementation, indirect cost benefits from implementation, and indirect costs resulting from the risks of implementation or factors reducing cost benefits. Presented herein is a model for analyzing digital telephony policies and systems and their associated direct costs and indirect benefit and risk factors. In order to present the structure of the model, issues of national importance and business-related issues are discussed. The various factors impacting the implementation of the associated communications systems and communications security are summarized, and various implementation tradeoffs are compared based on economic benefits/impact. The importance of the issues addressed herein, as well as other digital telephony issues, has greatly increased with the enormous increases in communication system connectivity due to the advance of the National Information Infrastructure.

Systems Engineering Using Heritage Spacecraft Technology: Lessons Learned from Discovery and New Frontiers Deep Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barley, Bryan; Newhouse, Marilyn; Clardy, Dennon

2011-01-01

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced or heritage systems and the system environment identifies unanticipated issues that result in cost overruns or schedule impacts. The Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays resulting from advanced technology or heritage assumptions for 6 D&NF missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that the cost and schedule growth did not result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. Instead, systems engineering processes did not identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement the heritage or advanced technology. This presentation summarizes the study s findings and offers suggestions for improving the project s ability to identify and manage the risks inherent in the technology and heritage design solution.

Analyzing system safety in lithium-ion grid energy storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosewater, David; Williams, Adam

2015-12-01

As grid energy storage systems become more complex, it grows more difficult to design them for safe operation. This paper first reviews the properties of lithium-ion batteries that can produce hazards in grid scale systems. Then the conventional safety engineering technique Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is reviewed to identify its limitations in complex systems. To address this gap, new research is presented on the application of Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to a lithium-ion battery based grid energy storage system. STPA is anticipated to fill the gaps recognized in PRA for designing complex systems and hence be more effective or less costly to use during safety engineering. It was observed that STPA is able to capture causal scenarios for accidents not identified using PRA. Additionally, STPA enabled a more rational assessment of uncertainty (all that is not known) thereby promoting a healthy skepticism of design assumptions. We conclude that STPA may indeed be more cost effective than PRA for safety engineering in lithium-ion battery systems. However, further research is needed to determine if this approach actually reduces safety engineering costs in development, or improves industry safety standards.

Supply chain quality.

PubMed

Feary, Simon

2009-01-01

As the development of complex manufacturing models and virtual companies become more prevalent in today's growing global markets, it is increasingly important to support the relationships between manufacturer and supplier. Utilising these relationships will ensure that supply chains operate more effectively and reduce costs, risks and time-to-market time frames, whilst maintaining product quality.

CONTROL OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINANTS AND DISINFECTION BY-PRODUCTS (DBPS): COST AND PERFORMANCE

EPA Science Inventory

The USEPA is in the process of developing a sophisticated regulatory strategy in an attempt to balance the complex trade-offs in risks associated with controlling disinfectants and disinfection by-products (D/DBPs) in drinking water. EPA first attempted to control DBPs in 1974, w...

Life cycle cost-based risk model for energy performance contracting retrofits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berghorn, George H.

Buildings account for 41% of the primary energy consumption in the United States, nearly half of which is accounted for by commercial buildings. Among the greatest energy users are those in the municipalities, universities, schools, and hospitals (MUSH) market. Correctional facilities are in the upper half of all commercial building types for energy intensity. Public agencies have experienced reduced capital budgets to fund retrofits; this has led to the increased use of energy performance contracts (EPC), which are implemented by energy services companies (ESCOs). These companies guarantee a minimum amount of energy savings resulting from the retrofit activities, which in essence transfers performance risk from the owner to the contractor. Building retrofits in the MUSH market, especially correctional facilities, are well-suited to EPC, yet despite this potential and their high energy intensities, efficiency improvements lag behind that of other public building types. Complexities in project execution, lack of support for data requests and sub-metering, and conflicting project objectives have been cited as reasons for this lag effect. As a result, project-level risks must be understood in order to support wider adoption of retrofits in the public market, in particular the correctional facility sub-market. The goal of this research is to understand risks related to the execution of energy efficiency retrofits delivered via EPC in the MUSH market. To achieve this goal, in-depth analysis and improved understanding was sought with regard to ESCO risks that are unique to EPC in this market. The proposed work contributes to this understanding by developing a life cycle cost-based risk model to improve project decision making with regard to risk control and reduction. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) to perform an exploratory analysis of the EPC retrofit process and identify key areas of performance risk requiring in-depth analysis; (2) to construct a framework describing the sources of and mitigation strategies employed for assessing key risks in EPC retrofits; (3) to develop a strategy for analyzing and evaluating risks for EPC retrofits focused on managing expected costs throughout the project life cycle, and use data collected through this strategy to develop and parameterize a risk model; and (4) to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed life cost-based risk model through a pilot application to a case study site. Five major contributions to the body of knowledge resulting from the research include: (1) a consensus-based assessment of ESCO risk management; (2) characterization of EPC retrofit risks borne by ESCOs; (3) an empirical evaluation of scenario failure mode and effects analysis and its application to this domain; (4) development and pilot application of a life cycle cost-based risk model; and (5) future expansion of the research approach to other domains. The researcher envisions that full implementation of the research will further encourage the growth of the energy services industry, and support focused retrofits in complex building types that typically can benefit the most from such work. Ultimately, this will reduce the energy consumption of public sector buildings to levels that are more fitting with the global principles of sustainability and responsible management of constrained resources.

Multiple beam mask writers: an industry solution to the write time crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litt, Lloyd C.

2010-09-01

The semiconductor industry is under constant pressure to reduce production costs even as technology complexity increases. Lithography represents the most expensive process due to its high capital equipment costs and the implementation of low-k1 lithographic processes, which has added to the complexity of making masks through the greater use of optical proximity correction, pixelated masks, and double or triple patterning. Each of these mask technologies allows the production of semiconductors at future nodes while extending the utility of current immersion tools. Low k1 patterning complexity combined with increased data due to smaller feature sizes is driving extremely long mask write times. While a majority of the industry is willing to accept mask write times of up to 24 hours, evidence suggests that the write times for many masks at the 22 nm node and beyond will be significantly longer. It has been estimated that $50M+ in non-recurring engineering (NRE) costs will be required to develop a multiple beam mask writer system, yet the business case to recover this kind of investment is not strong. Moreover, funding such a development is a high risk for an individual supplier. The problem is compounded by a disconnect between the tool customer (the mask supplier) and the final mask customer that will bear the increased costs if a high speed writer is not available. Since no individual company will likely risk entering this market, some type of industry-wide funding model will be needed. Because SEMATECH's member companies strongly support a multiple beam technology for mask writers to reduce the write time and cost of 193 nm and EUV masks, SEMATECH plans to pursue an advanced mask writer program in 2011 and 2012. In 2010, efforts will focus on identifying a funding model to address the investment to develop such a technology.

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element canmore » be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

Preventing adolescent pregnancy and associated risks.

PubMed Central

Miller, R.

1995-01-01

Adolescent pregnancy is a complex and frustrating problem that exacts a large social and personal cost. This year approximately 40,000 Canadian teenagers will become pregnant. With proper prevention, this number could be reduced. Pregnant teenagers seem to be at increased risk for some obstetric complications and their children for some neonatal complications. Family physicians who see patients over the course of a lifetime are in a good position to prevent adolescent pregnancy and the associated complications. PMID:8520241

Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

PubMed

Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

2012-07-01

Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

2017-11-01

Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

Tradeoffs in the Design of Health Plan Payment Systems: Fit, Power and Balance

PubMed Central

Geruso, Michael; McGuire, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

In many markets, including the new U.S. Marketplaces, health insurance plans are paid by risk-adjusted capitation, sometimes combined with reinsurance and other payment mechanisms. This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the de facto insurer incentives embedded in these complex payment systems. We discuss fit, power and balance, each of which addresses a distinct market failure in health insurance. We implement empirical metrics of fit, power, and balance in a study of Marketplace payment systems. Using data similar to that used to develop the Marketplace risk adjustment scheme, we quantify tradeoffs among the three classes of incentives. We show that an essential tradeoff arises between the goals of limiting costs and limiting cream skimming because risk adjustment, which is aimed at discouraging cream-skimming, weakens cost control incentives in practice. A simple reinsurance system scores better on our measures of fit, power and balance than the risk adjustment scheme in use in the Marketplaces. PMID:26922122

Tradeoffs in the design of health plan payment systems: Fit, power and balance.

PubMed

Geruso, Michael; McGuire, Thomas G

2016-05-01

In many markets, including the new U.S. Marketplaces, health insurance plans are paid by risk-adjusted capitation, sometimes combined with reinsurance and other payment mechanisms. This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the de facto insurer incentives embedded in these complex payment systems. We discuss fit, power and balance, each of which addresses a distinct market failure in health insurance. We implement empirical metrics of fit, power, and balance in a study of Marketplace payment systems. Using data similar to that used to develop the Marketplace risk adjustment scheme, we quantify tradeoffs among the three classes of incentives. We show that an essential tradeoff arises between the goals of limiting costs and limiting cream skimming because risk adjustment, which is aimed at discouraging cream-skimming, weakens cost control incentives in practice. A simple reinsurance system scores better on our measures of fit, power and balance than the risk adjustment scheme in use in the Marketplaces. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding your supply chain to reduce the risk of supply chain disruption.

PubMed

Wildgoose, Nick; Brennan, Patrick; Thompson, Simon

2012-01-01

Supply chains are at the heart of the way in which organisations operate and compete today; they also play a critical role in overall organisation performance. In the context of increasingly complex and global supply chains, the actions taken to drive down costs are likely to drive risk into the supply chain. The frequency of supply chain disruptions is high and this paper offers practical advice to help reduce the frequency and cost associated with these. There is advice to help with the understanding of how to identify critical suppliers. The reader is guided through comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation approaches and a selection of practical risk solutions and tools that you can use is described. There is a section on the 'dos and don'ts' relating to supplier due diligence. For those organisations facing the challenge of drawing up a business case relating to investment in improving supply chain resiliency, there is also a section outlining some of the business benefits of improving supply chain resiliency.

Engineering risk reduction in satellite programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, E. S., Jr.

1979-01-01

Methods developed in planning and executing system safety engineering programs for Lockheed satellite integration contracts are presented. These procedures establish the applicable safety design criteria, document design compliance and assess the residual risks where non-compliant design is proposed, and provide for hazard analysis of system level test, handling and launch preparations. Operations hazard analysis identifies product protection and product liability hazards prior to the preparation of operational procedures and provides safety requirements for inclusion in them. The method developed for documenting all residual hazards for the attention of program management assures an acceptable minimum level of risk prior to program deployment. The results are significant for persons responsible for managing or engineering the deployment and production of complex high cost equipment under current product liability law and cost/time constraints, have a responsibility to minimize the possibility of an accident, and should have documentation to provide a defense in a product liability suit.

A Cost Model for Testing Unmanned and Autonomous Systems of Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

those risks. In addition, the fundamental methods presented by Aranha and Borba to include the complexity and sizing of tests for UASoS, can be expanded...used as an input for test execution effort estimation models (Aranha & Borba , 2007). Such methodology is very relevant to this work because as a UASoS...calculate the test effort based on the complexity of the SoS. However, Aranha and Borba define test size as the number of steps required to complete

DTC commissioning. An arranged marriage.

PubMed

Mooney, Helen

2004-04-22

The first privately run diagnostic and treatment centre required nine months of complex talks between the strategic health authority, the trust and Bupa. The contract cost more than if it had been run by the trust, but it increased access and transferred risk. One lesson was that staff should have been better acclimatised to the idea.

A Methodology for Making Early Comparative Architecture Performance Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doyle, Gerald S.

2010-01-01

Complex and expensive systems' development suffers from a lack of method for making good system-architecture-selection decisions early in the development process. Failure to make a good system-architecture-selection decision increases the risk that a development effort will not meet cost, performance and schedule goals. This research provides a…

The Changing Financial Landscape of Renal Transplant Practice: A National Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Axelrod, David; Schnitzler, Mark A.; Xiao, Huiling; Naik, Abhijit S.; Segev, Dorry L.; Dharnidharka, Vikas R.; Brennan, Daniel C.; Lentine, Krista L.

2017-01-01

Kidney transplantation has become more resource intensive as recipient complexity has increased and average donor quality has diminished over time. A national retrospective cohort study was performed to assess the impact of kidney donor and recipient characteristics on transplant center cost (exclusive of organ acquisition) and Medicare reimbursement. Data from the national transplant registry, University HealthSystem Consortium hospital costs, and Medicare payments for deceased donor (N=53,862) and living donor (N=36,715) transplants from 2002–2013 were linked and analyzed using multivariate linear regression modeling. Deceased donor kidney transplant costs were correlated with recipient (Expected Post Transplant Survival Score, degree of allosensitization, obesity, cause of renal failure) donor (age, cause of death, donation after cardiac death, terminal creatinine), and transplant (histocompatibility matching) characteristics. Living donor costs rose sharply with higher degrees of allosensitization, and were also associated with obesity, cause of renal failure, recipient work ability, and 0-ABDR mismatching. Analysis of Medicare payments for a subsample of 24,809 transplants demonstrated minimal correlation with patient and donor characteristics. In conclusion, the complexity in the landscape of kidney transplantation increases center costs, posing financial disincentives that may reduce organ utilization and limit access for higher risk populations. PMID:27565133

Report to Congress on the U.S. Department of Energy`s Environmental Management Science Program: Research funded and its linkages to environmental cleanup problems, and high out-year cost environmental management project descriptions. Volume 3 of 3 -- Appendix C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-04-01

The Department of Energy`s Environmental Management Science Program (EMSP) serves as a catalyst for the application of scientific discoveries to the development and deployment of technologies that will lead to reduction of the costs and risks associated with cleaning up the nation`s nuclear complex. Appendix C provides details about each of the Department`s 82 high cost projects and lists the EMSP research awards with potential to impact each of these projects. The high cost projects listed are those having costs greater than $50 million in constant 1998 dollars from the year 2007 and beyond, based on the March 1998 Acceleratingmore » Cleanup: Paths to Closure Draft data, and having costs of quantities of material associated with an environmental management problem area. The high cost project information is grouped by operations office and organized by site and project code. Each operations office section begins with a list of research needs associated with that operations office. Potentially related research awards are listed by problem area in the Index of Research Awards by Environmental Management Problem Area, which can be found at the end of appendices B and C. For projects that address high risks to the public, workers, or the environment, refer also the Health/Ecology/Risk problem area awards. Research needs are programmatic or technical challenges that may benefit from knowledge gained through basic research.« less

Computing Optimal Stochastic Portfolio Execution Strategies: A Parametric Approach Using Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moazeni, Somayeh; Coleman, Thomas F.; Li, Yuying

2010-09-01

Computing optimal stochastic portfolio execution strategies under appropriate risk consideration presents great computational challenge. We investigate a parametric approach for computing optimal stochastic strategies using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach allows reduction in computational complexity by computing coefficients for a parametric representation of a stochastic dynamic strategy based on static optimization. Using this technique, constraints can be similarly handled using appropriate penalty functions. We illustrate the proposed approach to minimize the expected execution cost and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).

Applying Risk Management to Reduce The Overall Time In Lay-Up While Increasing the Cost Effectiveness of a Nimitz (CVN 68) Class Aircraft Carrier in Dry Dock During the Execution Phase of a Refueling and Complex Overhaul

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

operational availability and modernization capability. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 137 14. SUBJECT TERMS Systems Engineering Process, Risk Management...MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 2009 Author: Kiah Bernard Rahming Approved by...Professor Gary O. Langford Thesis Advisor Dr. Paul V. Shebalin Second Reader Dr. David H. Olwell Chairman, Department of Systems

Obesity-specific neural cost of maintaining gait performance under complex conditions in community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Osofundiya, Olufunmilola; Benden, Mark E; Dowdy, Diane; Mehta, Ranjana K

2016-06-01

Recent evidence of obesity-related changes in the prefrontal cortex during cognitive and seated motor activities has surfaced; however, the impact of obesity on neural activity during ambulation remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine obesity-specific neural cost of simple and complex ambulation in older adults. Twenty non-obese and obese individuals, 65years and older, performed three tasks varying in the types of complexity of ambulation (simple walking, walking+cognitive dual-task, and precision walking). Maximum oxygenated hemoglobin, a measure of neural activity, was measured bilaterally using a portable functional near infrared spectroscopy system, and gait speed and performance on the complex tasks were also obtained. Complex ambulatory tasks were associated with ~2-3.5 times greater cerebral oxygenation levels and ~30-40% slower gait speeds when compared to the simple walking task. Additionally, obesity was associated with three times greater oxygenation levels, particularly during the precision gait task, despite obese adults demonstrating similar gait speeds and performances on the complex gait tasks as non-obese adults. Compared to existing studies that focus solely on biomechanical outcomes, the present study is one of the first to examine obesity-related differences in neural activity during ambulation in older adults. In order to maintain gait performance, obesity was associated with higher neural costs, and this was augmented during ambulatory tasks requiring greater precision control. These preliminary findings have clinical implications in identifying individuals who are at greater risk of mobility limitations, particularly when performing complex ambulatory tasks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are telehealth technologies for hypertension care and self-management effective or simply risky and costly?

PubMed

McKoy, June; Fitzner, Karen; Margetts, Miranda; Heckinger, Elizabeth; Specker, James; Roth, Laura; Izenberg, Maxwell; Siegel, Molly; McKinney, Shannon; Moss, Gail

2015-06-01

Hypertension is a prevalent chronic disease that requires ongoing management and self-care. The disease affects 31% of American adults and contributed to or caused the deaths of 348,000 Americans in 2008, fewer than 50% of whom effectively self-managed the disease. However, self-management is complex, with patients requiring ongoing support and easy access to care. Telehealth may help foster the knowledge and skills necessary for those with hypertension to engage in successful self-management. This paper considers the applicability, efficacy, associated risks, and cost-effectiveness of telehealth for individuals and populations with hypertension. Telehealth is a broad term, encompassing telemedicine and mobile health that is used for physician-patient interactions, diagnostics, care delivery, education, information sharing, monitoring, and reminders. Telemedicine may have considerable utility for people diagnosed with hypertension who have poor access or social barriers that constrain access, but potential risks exist. Telehealth technology is evolving rapidly, even in the absence of fully proven cost-effectiveness and efficacy. Considering the cost of inpatient and emergency department care for patients with hypertension, telehealth is a highly attractive alternative, but there are risks to consider. Incorporating telehealth, which is increasingly characterized by mobile health, can increase both the capacity of health care providers and the reach of patient support, clinical management, and self-care. Telehealth studies need improvement; long-term outcome data on cardiovascular events must be obtained, and robust risk analyses and economic studies are needed to prospectively evaluate the safety and cost savings for hypertension self-management.

Difficult Decisions Made Easier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

NASA missions are extremely complex and prone to sudden, catastrophic failure if equipment falters or if an unforeseen event occurs. For these reasons, NASA trains to expect the unexpected. It tests its equipment and systems in extreme conditions, and it develops risk-analysis tests to foresee any possible problems. The Space Agency recently worked with an industry partner to develop reliability analysis software capable of modeling complex, highly dynamic systems, taking into account variations in input parameters and the evolution of the system over the course of a mission. The goal of this research was multifold. It included performance and risk analyses of complex, multiphase missions, like the insertion of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter; reliability analyses of systems with redundant and/or repairable components; optimization analyses of system configurations with respect to cost and reliability; and sensitivity analyses to identify optimal areas for uncertainty reduction or performance enhancement.

The design and development of a complex multifactorial falls assessment intervention for falls prevention: The Prevention of Falls Injury Trial (PreFIT).

PubMed

Bruce, Julie; Ralhan, Shvaita; Sheridan, Ray; Westacott, Katharine; Withers, Emma; Finnegan, Susanne; Davison, John; Martin, Finbarr C; Lamb, Sarah E

2017-06-01

This paper describes the design and development of a complex multifactorial falls prevention (MFFP) intervention for implementation and testing within the framework of a large UK-based falls prevention randomised controlled trial (RCT). A complex intervention was developed for inclusion within the Prevention of Falls Injury Trial (PreFIT), a multicentre pragmatic RCT. PreFIT aims to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of three alternative primary care falls prevention interventions (advice, exercise and MFFP), on outcomes of fractures and falls. Community-dwelling adults, aged 70 years and older, were recruited from primary care in the National Health Service (NHS), England. Development of the PreFIT MFFP intervention was informed by the existing evidence base and clinical guidelines for the assessment and management of falls in older adults. After piloting and modification, the final MFFP intervention includes seven falls risk factors: a detailed falls history interview with consideration of 'red flags'; assessment of balance and gait; vision; medication screen; cardiac screen; feet and footwear screen and home environment assessment. This complex intervention has been fully manualised with clear, documented assessment and treatment pathways for each risk factor. Each risk factor is assessed in every trial participant referred for MFFP. Referral for assessment is based upon a screening survey to identify those with a history of falling or balance problems. Intervention delivery can be adapted to the local setting. This complex falls prevention intervention is currently being tested within the framework of a large clinical trial. This paper adheres to TIDieR and CONSORT recommendations for the comprehensive and explicit reporting of trial interventions. Results from the PreFIT study will be published in due course. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the PreFIT MFFP intervention, compared to advice and exercise, on the prevention of falls and fractures, will be reported at the conclusion of the trial.

Accidental versus operational oil spills from shipping in the Baltic Sea: risk governance and management strategies.

PubMed

Hassler, Björn

2011-03-01

Marine governance of oil transportation is complex. Due to difficulties in effectively monitoring procedures on vessels en voyage, incentives to save costs by not following established regulations on issues such as cleaning of tanks, crew size, and safe navigation may be substantial. The issue of problem structure is placed in focus, that is, to what degree the specific characteristics and complexity of intentional versus accidental oil spill risks affect institutional responses. It is shown that whereas the risk of accidental oil spills primarily has been met by technical requirements on the vessels in combination with Port State control, attempts have been made to curb intentional pollution by for example increased surveillance and smart governance mechanisms such as the No-Special-Fee system. It is suggested that environmental safety could be improved by increased use of smart governance mechanisms tightly adapted to key actors' incentives to alter behavior in preferable directions.

Controlling for quality in the hospital cost function.

PubMed

Carey, Kathleen; Stefos, Theodore

2011-06-01

This paper explores the relationship between the cost and quality of hospital care from the perspective of applied microeconomics. It addresses both theoretical and practical complexities entailed in incorporating hospital quality into the estimation of hospital cost functions. That literature is extended with an empirical analysis that examines the use of 15 Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) as measures of hospital quality. A total operating cost function is estimated on 2,848 observations from five states drawn from the period 2001 to 2007. In general, findings indicate that the PSIs are successful in capturing variation in hospital cost due to adverse patient safety events. Measures that rely on the aggregate number of adverse events summed over PSIs are found to be superior to risk-adjusted rates for individual PSIs. The marginal cost of an adverse event is estimated to be $22,413. The results contribute to a growing business case for inpatient safety in hospital services.

Cost of ownership for inspection equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dance, Daren L.; Bryson, Phil

1993-08-01

Cost of Ownership (CoO) models are increasingly a part of the semiconductor equipment evaluation and selection process. These models enable semiconductor manufacturers and equipment suppliers to quantify a system in terms of dollars per wafer. Because of the complex nature of the semiconductor manufacturing process, there are several key attributes that must be considered in order to accurately reflect the true 'cost of ownership'. While most CoO work to date has been applied to production equipment, the need to understand cost of ownership for inspection and metrology equipment presents unique challenges. Critical parameters such as detection sensitivity as a function of size and type of defect are not included in current CoO models yet are, without question, major factors in the technical evaluation process and life-cycle cost. This paper illustrates the relationship between these parameters, as components of the alpha and beta risk, and cost of ownership.

Analyzing system safety in lithium-ion grid energy storage

DOE PAGES

Rosewater, David; Williams, Adam

2015-10-08

As grid energy storage systems become more complex, it grows more di cult to design them for safe operation. This paper first reviews the properties of lithium-ion batteries that can produce hazards in grid scale systems. Then the conventional safety engineering technique Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is reviewed to identify its limitations in complex systems. To address this gap, new research is presented on the application of Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to a lithium-ion battery based grid energy storage system. STPA is anticipated to ll the gaps recognized in PRA for designing complex systems and hence be more e ectivemore » or less costly to use during safety engineering. It was observed that STPA is able to capture causal scenarios for accidents not identified using PRA. Additionally, STPA enabled a more rational assessment of uncertainty (all that is not known) thereby promoting a healthy skepticism of design assumptions. Lastly, we conclude that STPA may indeed be more cost effective than PRA for safety engineering in lithium-ion battery systems. However, further research is needed to determine if this approach actually reduces safety engineering costs in development, or improves industry safety standards.« less

Predicting all-cause risk of 30-day hospital readmission using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Jamei, Mehdi; Nisnevich, Aleksandr; Wetchler, Everett; Sudat, Sylvia; Liu, Eric

2017-01-01

Avoidable hospital readmissions not only contribute to the high costs of healthcare in the US, but also have an impact on the quality of care for patients. Large scale adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHR) has created the opportunity to proactively identify patients with high risk of hospital readmission, and apply effective interventions to mitigate that risk. To that end, in the past, numerous machine-learning models have been employed to predict the risk of 30-day hospital readmission. However, the need for an accurate and real-time predictive model, suitable for hospital setting applications still exists. Here, using data from more than 300,000 hospital stays in California from Sutter Health's EHR system, we built and tested an artificial neural network (NN) model based on Google's TensorFlow library. Through comparison with other traditional and non-traditional models, we demonstrated that neural networks are great candidates to capture the complexity and interdependency of various data fields in EHRs. LACE, the current industry standard, showed a precision (PPV) of 0.20 in identifying high-risk patients in our database. In contrast, our NN model yielded a PPV of 0.24, which is a 20% improvement over LACE. Additionally, we discussed the predictive power of Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) data, and presented a simple cost analysis to assist hospitalists in implementing helpful and cost-effective post-discharge interventions.

Predicting all-cause risk of 30-day hospital readmission using artificial neural networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Avoidable hospital readmissions not only contribute to the high costs of healthcare in the US, but also have an impact on the quality of care for patients. Large scale adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHR) has created the opportunity to proactively identify patients with high risk of hospital readmission, and apply effective interventions to mitigate that risk. To that end, in the past, numerous machine-learning models have been employed to predict the risk of 30-day hospital readmission. However, the need for an accurate and real-time predictive model, suitable for hospital setting applications still exists. Here, using data from more than 300,000 hospital stays in California from Sutter Health’s EHR system, we built and tested an artificial neural network (NN) model based on Google’s TensorFlow library. Through comparison with other traditional and non-traditional models, we demonstrated that neural networks are great candidates to capture the complexity and interdependency of various data fields in EHRs. LACE, the current industry standard, showed a precision (PPV) of 0.20 in identifying high-risk patients in our database. In contrast, our NN model yielded a PPV of 0.24, which is a 20% improvement over LACE. Additionally, we discussed the predictive power of Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) data, and presented a simple cost analysis to assist hospitalists in implementing helpful and cost-effective post-discharge interventions. PMID:28708848

Compiling, costing and funding complex packages of home-based health care.

PubMed

Noyes, Jane; Lewis, Mary

2007-06-01

Nurses play a central role in putting together complex packages of care to support children with complex healthcare needs and their families in the community. However, there is little evidence or guidance to support this area of practice. At present, the process of compiling a care package and obtaining funding takes too long, causing significant delays in discharge and great frustration for parents, children and professionals. This article presents a combination of best practice guidance and, where possible, evidence-based principles that can be adapted and applied to an individual case irrespective of the child's diagnosis. The aim is to assist nurses and other healthcare professionals in organising funding for packages of care, bringing about the desired outcomes of successful discharge and appropriate community support. To work effectively as keyworkers for these children and families nurses need knowledge and skills in relation to: multidisciplinary assessment frameworks and processes, identifying appropriate models of service provision, costing care packages and approaches to obtaining funding. A further article next month will address risk management and clinical governance issues in delivering complex home-based care.

Cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Brazil - comparison of outcomes from different static model types.

PubMed

Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Marijam, Alen; Tannus Branco de Araujo, Gabriela; Gomez, Jorge; Van Vlaenderen, Ilse

Influenza burden in Brazil is considerable with 4.2-6.4 million cases in 2008 and influenza-like-illness responsible for 16.9% of hospitalizations. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination may be assessed by different types of models, with limitations due to data availability, assumptions, and modelling approach. To understand the impact of model complexity, the cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccines in Brazil was estimated using three distinct models: a 1-year decision tree population model with three age groups (FLOU); a more detailed 1-year population model with five age groups (FLORA); and a more complex lifetime multi-cohort Markov model with nine age groups (FLORENCE). Analysis 1 (impact of model structure) compared each model using the same data inputs (i.e., best available data for FLOU). Analysis 2 (impact of increasing granularity) compared each model populated with the best available data for that model. Using the best data for each model, the discounted cost-utility ratio of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine was R$20,428 with FLOU, R$22,768 with FLORA (versus R$20,428 in Analysis 1), and, R$19,257 with FLORENCE (versus R$22,490 in Analysis 1) using a lifetime horizon. Conceptual differences between FLORA and FLORENCE meant the same assumption regarding increased all-cause mortality in at-risk individuals had an opposite effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in Analysis 2 versus 1, and a proportionally higher number of vaccinated elderly in FLORENCE reduced this ratio in Analysis 2. FLOU provided adequate cost-effectiveness estimates with data in broad age groups. FLORA increased insights (e.g., in healthy versus at-risk, paediatric, respiratory/non-respiratory complications). FLORENCE provided greater insights and precision (e.g., in elderly, costs and complications, lifetime cost-effectiveness). All three models predicted a cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in the range of R$19,257 (FLORENCE) to R$22,768 (FLORA) with the best available data in Brazil (Appendix A). Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Addressing the High Costs of Pancreaticoduodenectomy at Safety-Net Hospitals.

PubMed

Go, Derek E; Abbott, Daniel E; Wima, Koffi; Hanseman, Dennis J; Ertel, Audrey E; Chang, Alex L; Shah, Shimul A; Hoehn, Richard S

2016-10-01

Safety-net hospitals care for vulnerable patients, providing complex surgery at increased costs. These hospitals are at risk due to changing health care reimbursement policies and demand for better value in surgical care. To model different techniques for reducing the cost of complex surgery performed at safety-net hospitals. Hospitals performing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) were queried from the University HealthSystem Consortium database (January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2013) and grouped according to safety-net burden. A decision analytic model was constructed and populated with clinical and cost data. Sensitivity analyses were then conducted to determine how changes in the management or redistribution of patients between hospital groups affected cost. Overall cost per patient after PD. During the 5 years of the study, 15 090 patients underwent PD. Among safety-net hospitals, low-burden hospitals (LBHs), medium-burden hospitals (MBHs), and high-burden hospitals (HBHs) treated 4220 (28.0%), 9505 (63.0%), and 1365 (9.0%) patients, respectively. High-burden hospitals had higher rates of complications or comorbidities and more patients with increased severity of illness. Perioperative mortality was twice as high at HBHs (3.7%) than at LBHs (1.6%) and MBHs (1.7%) (P < .001). In the base case, when all clinical and cost data were considered, PD at HBHs cost $35 303 per patient, 30.1% and 36.2% higher than at MBHs ($27 130) and LBHs ($25 916), respectively. Reducing perioperative complications or comorbidities by 50% resulted in a cost reduction of up to $4607 for HBH patients, while reducing mortality rates had a negligible effect. However, redistribution of HBH patients to LBHs and MBHs resulted in significantly more cost savings of $9155 per HBH patient, or $699 per patient overall. Safety-net hospitals performing PD have inferior outcomes and higher costs, and improving perioperative outcomes may have a nominal effect on reducing these costs. Redirecting patients away from safety-net hospitals for complex surgery may represent the best option for reducing costs, but the implementation of such a policy will undoubtedly meet significant challenges.

Heritage Systems Engineering Lessons from NASA Deep Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barley, Bryan; Newhouse, Marilyn; Clardy, Dennon

2010-01-01

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for all five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to be the result of technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the systemwide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study s lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project s ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Deep Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barley, Bryan; Newhouse, Marilyn; Clardy, Dennon

2010-01-01

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for four of the five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study's lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project's ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Sustainable Mining Land Use for Lignite Based Energy Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudek, Michal; Krysa, Zbigniew

2017-12-01

This research aims to discuss complex lignite based energy projects economic viability and its impact on sustainable land use with respect to project risk and uncertainty, economics, optimisation (e.g. Lerchs and Grossmann) and importance of lignite as fuel that may be expressed in situ as deposit of energy. Sensitivity analysis and simulation consist of estimated variable land acquisition costs, geostatistics, 3D deposit block modelling, electricity price considered as project product price, power station efficiency and power station lignite processing unit cost, CO2 allowance costs, mining unit cost and also lignite availability treated as lignite reserves kriging estimation error. Investigated parameters have nonlinear influence on results so that economically viable amount of lignite in optimal pit varies having also nonlinear impact on land area required for mining operation.

Direct healthcare cost of obesity in brazil: an application of the cost-of-illness method from the perspective of the public health system in 2011.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Michele Lessa; Santos, Leonor Maria Pacheco; da Silva, Everton Nunes

2015-01-01

Obesity is a global public health problem and a risk factor for several diseases that financially impact healthcare systems. To estimate the direct costs attributable to obesity (body mass index {BMI} ≥ 30 kg/m2) and morbid obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2) in adults aged ≥ 20 incurred by the Brazilian public health system in 2011. Public hospitals and outpatient care. A cost-of-illness method was adopted using a top-down approach based on prevalence. The proportion of the cost of each obesity-associated comorbidity was calculated and obesity prevalence was used to calculate attributable risk. Direct healthcare cost data (inpatient care, bariatric surgery, outpatient care, medications and diagnostic procedures) were extracted from the Ministry of Health information systems, available on the web. Direct costs attributable to obesity totaled US$ 269.6 million (1.86% of all expenditures on medium- and high-complexity health care). The cost of morbid obesity accounted for 23.8% (US$ 64.2 million) of all obesity-related costs despite being 18 times less prevalent than obesity. Bariatric surgery costs in Brazil totaled US$ 17.4 million in 2011. The cost of morbid obesity in women was five times higher than it was in men. The cost of morbid obesity was found to be proportionally higher than the cost of obesity. If the current epidemic were not reversed, the prevalence of obesity in Brazil will increase gradually in the coming years, as well as its costs, having serious implications for the financial sustainability of the Brazilian public health system.

After the revolution: DRGs at age 30.

PubMed

Quinn, Kevin

2014-03-18

1 October 2013 marked 30 years since Medicare began paying hospitals by diagnosis-related group (DRG), arguably the most influential innovation in the history of health care financing. Initially developed as a tool for hospital management, DRGs became the basis of the inpatient prospective payment system that Medicare implemented in 1983. The strong incentives were revolutionary in their impact. Medicare spending growth slowed sharply, and, more remarkable, hospitals posted record profits. After the link between cost and payment was broken, hospitals moved quickly to cut costs. Nevertheless, a literature survey concluded that none of the worst fears about adverse effects on patients were realized. Diagnosis-related groups have also come to define "the product of a hospital" for purposes of benchmarking and risk adjustment. The acceptance of DRG algorithms owes much to their categorical approach, clinical focus, and transparency. The 2 most commonly used algorithms, Medicare DRGs and All Patient Refined (APR) DRGs, typically explain more than 40% of cost variance in inpatient stays, although with considerable range by care category. Because Medicare DRGs are unsuitable for obstetrics, pediatrics, and neonatology, some payers prefer APR DRGs. Diagnosis-related groups have proven to be a suitable basis for payment, as evidenced by widespread use. Common issues include mitigation of adverse incentives, appropriate payment for extremely costly stays, applicability to certain hospitals and care categories, and growing complexity. The DRG experience offers lessons about the effectiveness of financial incentives, the likelihood of adverse effects, the usefulness of case-mix measures, the risks of growing complexity, and the example that sensible policy need not be the domain of any one political party or other entity.

The Economic Impact of Closed-Incision Negative-Pressure Therapy in High-Risk Abdominal Incisions: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

PubMed

Chopra, Karan; Gowda, Arvind U; Morrow, Chris; Holton, Luther; Singh, Devinder P

2016-04-01

Complex abdominal wall reconstruction is beset by postoperative complications. A recent meta-analysis comparing the use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy to standard dressings found a statistically significant reduction in surgical-site infection. The use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is gaining acceptance in this population; however, the economic impact of this innovative dressing remains unknown. In this study, a cost-utility analysis was performed assessing closed-incision negative-pressure therapy and standard dressings following closure of abdominal incisions in high-risk patients. Cost-utility methodology involved reviewing literature related to closed-incision negative-pressure therapy in abdominal wall surgery, obtaining utility estimates to calculate quality-adjusted life-year scores for successful surgery and surgery complicated by surgical-site infection, summing costs using Medicare Current Procedural Terminology codes, and creating a decision tree illuminating the most cost-effective dressing strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the results. The aforementioned meta-analysis comparing closed-incision negative-pressure therapy to standard dressings included a subset of five studies assessing abdominal wall surgery in 829 patients (260 closed-incision negative-pressure therapy and 569 standard dressings). Decision tree analysis revealed an estimated savings of $1546.52 and a gain of 0.0024 quality-adjusted life-year with closed-incision negative-pressure therapy compared with standard dressings; therefore, closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is a dominant treatment strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is a cost-effective option when the surgical-site infection rate is greater than 16.39 percent. The use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is cost-saving following closure of abdominal incisions in high-risk patients.

Department of Defense Energy and Logistics: Implications of Historic and Future Cost, Risk, and Capability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tisa, Paul C.

Every year the DoD spends billions satisfying its large petroleum demand. This spending is highly sensitive to uncontrollable and poorly understood market forces. Additionally, while some stakeholders may not prioritize its monetary cost and risk, energy is fundamentally coupled to other critical factors. Energy, operational capability, and logistics are heavily intertwined and dependent on uncertain security environment and technology futures. These components and their relationships are less understood. Without better characterization, future capabilities may be significantly limited by present-day acquisition decisions. One attempt to demonstrate these costs and risks to decision makers has been through a metric known as the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy (FBCE). FBCE is defined as the commodity price for fuel plus many of these hidden costs. The metric encouraged a valuable conversation and is still required by law. However, most FBCE development stopped before the lessons from that conversation were incorporated. Current implementation is easy to employ but creates little value. Properly characterizing the costs and risks of energy and putting them in a useful tradespace requires a new framework. This research aims to highlight energy's complex role in many aspects of military operations, the critical need to incorporate it in decisions, and a novel framework to do so. It is broken into five parts. The first describes the motivation behind FBCE, the limits of current implementation, and outlines a new framework that aids decisions. Respectively, the second, third, and fourth present a historic analysis of the connections between military capabilities and energy, analyze the recent evolution of this conversation within the DoD, and pull the historic analysis into a revised framework. The final part quantifies the potential impacts of deeply uncertain futures and technological development and introduces an expanded framework that brings capability, energy, and their uncertainty into the same tradespace. The work presented is intended to inform better policies and investment decisions for military acquisitions. The discussion highlights areas within the DoD's understanding of energy that could improve or whose development has faltered. The new metric discussed allows the DoD to better manage and plan for long-term energy-related costs and risk.

Enhancing Integrated Pest Management in GM Cotton Systems Using Host Plant Resistance

PubMed Central

Trapero, Carlos; Wilson, Iain W.; Stiller, Warwick N.; Wilson, Lewis J.

2016-01-01

Cotton has lost many ancestral defensive traits against key invertebrate pests. This is suggested by the levels of resistance to some pests found in wild cotton genotypes as well as in cultivated landraces and is a result of domestication and a long history of targeted breeding for yield and fiber quality, along with the capacity to control pests with pesticides. Genetic modification (GM) allowed integration of toxins from a bacteria into cotton to control key Lepidopteran pests. Since the mid-1990s, use of GM cotton cultivars has greatly reduced the amount of pesticides used in many cotton systems. However, pests not controlled by the GM traits have usually emerged as problems, especially the sucking bug complex. Control of this complex with pesticides often causes a reduction in beneficial invertebrate populations, allowing other secondary pests to increase rapidly and require control. Control of both sucking bug complex and secondary pests is problematic due to the cost of pesticides and/or high risk of selecting for pesticide resistance. Deployment of host plant resistance (HPR) provides an opportunity to manage these issues in GM cotton systems. Cotton cultivars resistant to the sucking bug complex and/or secondary pests would require fewer pesticide applications, reducing costs and risks to beneficial invertebrate populations and pesticide resistance. Incorporation of HPR traits into elite cotton cultivars with high yield and fiber quality offers the potential to further reduce pesticide use and increase the durability of pest management in GM cotton systems. We review the challenges that the identification and use of HPR against invertebrate pests brings to cotton breeding. We explore sources of resistance to the sucking bug complex and secondary pests, the mechanisms that control them and the approaches to incorporate these defense traits to commercial cultivars. PMID:27148323

The diagnostic utility of preoperative breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and/or intraoperative sub-nipple biopsy in nipple-sparing mastectomy.

PubMed

Chan, S-E; Liao, C-Y; Wang, T-Y; Chen, S-T; Chen, D-R; Lin, Y-J; Chen, C-J; Wu, H-K; Chen, S-L; Kuo, S-J; Lee, C-W; Lai, H-W

2017-01-01

The necessity of routine sub-nipple biopsy was uncertain, and the role of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting nipple invasion in patients who have been selected for nipple sparing mastectomy (NSM) has not been adequately evaluated. We retrospectively collected and analyzed the medical and surgical records of 434 patients with primary operable breast cancer who met the criteria for NSM and underwent breast surgery during the period January 2011 to December 2015. Patients were stratified into three risk groups (low, intermediate, and high) according to tumor size and tumor-to-nipple distance. Among the 434 patients in this study, 29 (6.7%) had occult invasion of the nipple-areola complex (NAC). Sub-nipple biopsy had a sensitivity of 84.6%, a specificity of 100%, a false negative rate of 1.2%, a false positive rate of 0%, and an overall accuracy rate of 98.8% in confirming NAC invasion. The NAC invasion rate was 0% in the low-risk group, 5.1% in the intermediate-risk group, and 19.7% in the high-risk group (P < 0.01). The overall NPV of preoperative MRI for predicting NAC invasion was 94.8%. Cost analysis revealed that the cost of NSM with sub-nipple biopsy was significantly higher than that of NSM alone, with a mean difference in cost of USD 238.5 (P < 0.01). The high negative predictive value of MRI for NAC invasion is useful for selection of patients receiving NSM. Sub-nipple biopsy is a reliable procedure to detect occult NAC invasion, however, routine use is not cost-effect for low risk patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Off target.

PubMed

Hudson, T; Haugh, R; Serb, C

1999-01-01

Leave it to the market. It's our collective corrective, the American way of problem-solving. So it's no surprise that we looked to the market to stop runaway health care costs. For awhile, it seemed to work. Medicare HMOs, physician practice management, risk contracting, and other innovations boomed. Then came the setbacks, exposing health care's complexities and contradictions--and reminding us that nothing escapes market discipline.

A New Theory of Trajectory Design and NASA's Vision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folta, David

2006-01-01

This new theory is defined as the use of chaos to design trajectories and orbits that can be used to meet complex mission goals. The benefits are; a) minimizes fuel costs; b) optimizes trajectory profiles; c) provides non-standard and new orbit designs; and d) mitigates operational risks. Other synonymous terms include dynamical systems, invariant manifolds, capture orbits and ballistic orbits.

Use of big data by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina.

PubMed

Helm-Murtagh, Susan C

2014-01-01

The health care industry is grappling with the challenges of working with and analyzing large, complex, diverse data sets. Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina provides several promising examples of how big data can be used to reduce the cost of care, to predict and manage health risks, and to improve clinical outcomes.

Ideal AFROC and FROC observers.

PubMed

Khurd, Parmeshwar; Liu, Bin; Gindi, Gene

2010-02-01

Detection of multiple lesions in images is a medically important task and free-response receiver operating characteristic (FROC) analyses and its variants, such as alternative FROC (AFROC) analyses, are commonly used to quantify performance in such tasks. However, ideal observers that optimize FROC or AFROC performance metrics have not yet been formulated in the general case. If available, such ideal observers may turn out to be valuable for imaging system optimization and in the design of computer aided diagnosis techniques for lesion detection in medical images. In this paper, we derive ideal AFROC and FROC observers. They are ideal in that they maximize, amongst all decision strategies, the area, or any partial area, under the associated AFROC or FROC curve. Calculation of observer performance for these ideal observers is computationally quite complex. We can reduce this complexity by considering forms of these observers that use false positive reports derived from signal-absent images only. We also consider a Bayes risk analysis for the multiple-signal detection task with an appropriate definition of costs. A general decision strategy that minimizes Bayes risk is derived. With particular cost constraints, this general decision strategy reduces to the decision strategy associated with the ideal AFROC or FROC observer.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions for increasing the possession of functioning smoke alarms in households with pre-school children: a modelling study.

PubMed

Saramago, Pedro; Cooper, Nicola J; Sutton, Alex J; Hayes, Mike; Dunn, Ken; Manca, Andrea; Kendrick, Denise

2014-05-16

The UK has one of the highest rates for deaths from fire and flames in children aged 0-14 years compared to other high income countries. Evidence shows that smoke alarms can reduce the risk of fire-related injury but little exists on their cost-effectiveness. We aimed to compare the cost effectiveness of different interventions for the uptake of 'functioning' smoke alarms and consequently for the prevention of fire-related injuries in children in the UK. We carried out a decision model-based probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis. We used a hypothetical population of newborns and evaluated the impact of living in a household with or without a functioning smoke alarm during the first 5 years of their life on overall lifetime costs and quality of life from a public health perspective. We compared seven interventions, ranging from usual care to more complex interventions comprising of education, free/low cost equipment giveaway, equipment fitting and/or home safety inspection. Education and free/low cost equipment was the most cost-effective intervention with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £34,200 per QALY gained compared to usual care. This was reduced to approximately £4,500 per QALY gained when 1.8 children under the age of 5 were assumed per household. Assessing cost-effectiveness, as well as effectiveness, is important in a public sector system operating under a fixed budget restraint. As highlighted in this study, the more effective interventions (in this case the more complex interventions) may not necessarily be the ones considered the most cost-effective.

An exhaustive approach for identification of flood risk hotspots in data poor regions enforcing combined geomorphic and socio-economic indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, M. P.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2017-12-01

Many countries across the Globe are victims of floods. To monitor them, various sophisticated algorithms and flood models are used by the scientific community. However, there still lies a gap to efficiently mapping flood risk. The limitations being: (i) scarcity of extensive data inputs required for precise flood modeling, (ii) fizzling performance of models in large and complex terrains (iii) high computational cost and time, and (iv) inexpertise in handling model simulations by civic bodies. These factors trigger the necessity of incorporating uncomplicated and inexpensive, yet precise approaches to identify areas at different levels of flood risk. The present study addresses this issue by utilizing various easily available, low cost data in a GIS environment for a large flood prone and data poor region. A set of geomorphic indicators of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) are analysed through linear binary classification, and are used to identify the flood hazard. The performance of these indicators is then investigated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, whereas the calibration and validation of the derived flood maps are accomplished through a comparison with dynamically coupled 1-D 2-D flood model outputs. A high degree of similarity on flood inundation proves the reliability of the proposed approach in identifying flood hazard. On the other hand, an extensive list of socio-economic indicators is selected to represent the flood vulnerability at a very finer forward sortation level using multivariate Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A set of bivariate flood risk maps is derived combining the flood hazard and socio-economic vulnerability maps. Given the acute problem of floods in developing countries, the proposed methodology which may be characterized by low computational cost, lesser data requirement and limited flood modeling complexity may facilitate local authorities and planners for deriving effective flood management strategies.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

The influence of complications on the costs of complex cancer surgery.

PubMed

Short, Marah N; Aloia, Thomas A; Ho, Vivian

2014-04-01

It is widely known that outcomes after cancer surgery vary widely, depending on interactions between patient, tumor, neoadjuvant therapy, and provider factors. Within this complex milieu, the influence of complications on the cost of surgical oncology care remains unknown. The authors examined rates of Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) occurrence for 6 cancer operations and their association with costs of care. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) PSI definitions were used to identify patient safety-related complications in Medicare claims data. Hospital and inpatient physician claims for the years 2005 through 2009 were analyzed for 6 cancer resections: colectomy, rectal resection, pulmonary lobectomy, pneumonectomy, esophagectomy, and pancreatic resection. Risk-adjusted regression analyses were used to measure the association between each PSI and hospitalization costs. Overall PSI rates ranged from a low of 0.01% for postoperative hip fracture to a high of 2.58% for respiratory failure. Death among inpatients with serious treatable complications, postoperative respiratory failure, postoperative thromboembolism, and accidental puncture/laceration were >1% for all 6 cancer operations. Several PSIs-including decubitus ulcer, death among surgical inpatients with serious treatable complications, and postoperative thromboembolism-raised hospitalization costs by ≥20% for most cancer surgery types. Postoperative respiratory failure resulted in a cost increase >50% for all cancer resections. The consistently higher costs associated with cancer surgery PSIs indicate that substantial health care savings could be achieved by targeting these indicators for quality improvement. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

The influence of complications on the costs of complex cancer surgery

PubMed Central

Short, Marah N; Aloia, Thomas A; Ho, Vivian

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND It is widely known that outcomes after cancer surgery vary widely, depending on interactions between patient, tumor, neoadjuvant therapy, and provider factors. Within this complex milieu, the influence of complications on the cost of surgical oncology care remains unknown. The authors examined rates of Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) occurrence for 6 cancer operations and their association with costs of care. METHODS The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) PSI definitions were used to identify patient safety-related complications in Medicare claims data. Hospital and inpatient physician claims for the years 2005 through 2009 were analyzed for 6 cancer resections: colectomy, rectal resection, pulmonary lobectomy, pneumonectomy, esophagectomy, and pancreatic resection. Risk-adjusted regression analyses were used to measure the association between each PSI and hospitalization costs. RESULTS Overall PSI rates ranged from a low of 0.01% for postoperative hip fracture to a high of 2.58% for respiratory failure. Death among inpatients with serious treatable complications, postoperative respiratory failure, postoperative thromboembolism, and accidental puncture/laceration were >1% for all 6 cancer operations. Several PSIs—including decubitus ulcer, death among surgical inpatients with serious treatable complications, and postoperative thromboembolism—raised hospitalization costs by ≥20% for most cancer surgery types. Postoperative respiratory failure resulted in a cost increase >50% for all cancer resections. CONCLUSIONS The consistently higher costs associated with cancer surgery PSIs indicate that substantial health care savings could be achieved by targeting these indicators for quality improvement. PMID:24382697

Space shuttle low cost/risk avionics study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

All work breakdown structure elements containing any avionics related effort were examined for pricing the life cycle costs. The analytical, testing, and integration efforts are included for the basic onboard avionics and electrical power systems. The design and procurement of special test equipment and maintenance and repair equipment are considered. Program management associated with these efforts is described. Flight test spares and labor and materials associated with the operations and maintenance of the avionics systems throughout the horizontal flight test are examined. It was determined that cost savings can be achieved by using existing hardware, maximizing orbiter-booster commonality, specifying new equipments to MIL quality standards, basing redundancy on cost effective analysis, minimizing software complexity and reducing cross strapping and computer-managed functions, utilizing compilers and floating point computers, and evolving the design as dictated by the horizontal flight test schedules.

Evolution of Safety Analysis to Support New Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thrasher, Chard W.

2008-01-01

NASA is currently developing the Ares I launch vehicle as a key component of the Constellation program which will provide safe and reliable transportation to the International Space Station, back to the moon, and later to Mars. The risks and costs of the Ares I must be significantly lowered, as compared to other manned launch vehicles, to enable the continuation of space exploration. It is essential that safety be significantly improved, and cost-effectively incorporated into the design process. This paper justifies early and effective safety analysis of complex space systems. Interactions and dependences between design, logistics, modeling, reliability, and safety engineers will be discussed to illustrate methods to lower cost, reduce design cycles and lessen the likelihood of catastrophic events.

Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.

PubMed

Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan

2017-03-01

When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alice T.; Gunn, Todd; Pham, Tuan; Ricaldi, Ron

1994-01-01

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Estimating the cost of blood: past, present, and future directions.

PubMed

Shander, Aryeh; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Theusinger, Oliver M; Spahn, Donat R

2007-06-01

Understanding the costs associated with blood products requires sophisticated knowledge about transfusion medicine and is attracting the attention of clinical and administrative healthcare sectors worldwide. To improve outcomes, blood usage must be optimized and expenditures controlled so that resources may be channeled toward other diagnostic, therapeutic, and technological initiatives. Estimating blood costs, however, is a complex undertaking, surpassing simple supply versus demand economics. Shrinking donor availability and application of a precautionary principle to minimize transfusion risks are factors that continue to drive the cost of blood products upward. Recognizing that historical accounting attempts to determine blood costs have varied in scope, perspective, and methodology, new approaches have been initiated to identify all potential cost elements related to blood and blood product administration. Activities are also under way to tie these elements together in a comprehensive and practical model that will be applicable to all single-donor blood products without regard to practice type (e.g., academic, private, multi- or single-center clinic). These initiatives, their rationale, importance, and future directions are described.

Composite fuselage crown panel manufacturing technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willden, Kurtis; Metschan, S.; Grant, C.; Brown, T.

1992-01-01

Commercial fuselage structures contain significant challenges in attempting to save manufacturing costs with advanced composite technology. Assembly issues, materials costs, and fabrication of elements with complex geometry are each expected to drive the cost of composite fuselage structure. Key technologies, such as large crown panel fabrication, were pursued for low cost. An intricate bond panel design and manufacturing concept were selected based on the efforts of the Design Build Team. The manufacturing processes selected for the intricate bond design include multiple large panel fabrication with Advanced Tow Placement (ATP) process, innovative cure tooling concepts, resin transfer molding of long fuselage frames, and use of low cost materials forms. The process optimization for final design/manufacturing configuration included factory simulations and hardware demonstrations. These efforts and other optimization tasks were instrumental in reducing costs by 18 pct. and weight by 45 pct. relative to an aluminum baseline. The qualitative and quantitative results of the manufacturing demonstrations were used to assess manufacturing risks and technology readiness.

Composite fuselage crown panel manufacturing technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willden, Kurtis; Metschan, S.; Grant, C.; Brown, T.

1992-01-01

Commercial fuselage structures contain significant challenges in attempting to save manufacturing costs with advanced composite technology. Assembly issues, material costs, and fabrication of elements with complex geometry are each expected to drive the cost of composite fuselage structures. Boeing's efforts under the NASA ACT program have pursued key technologies for low-cost, large crown panel fabrication. An intricate bond panel design and manufacturing concepts were selected based on the efforts of the Design Build Team (DBT). The manufacturing processes selected for the intricate bond design include multiple large panel fabrication with the Advanced Tow Placement (ATP) process, innovative cure tooling concepts, resin transfer molding of long fuselage frames, and utilization of low-cost material forms. The process optimization for final design/manufacturing configuration included factory simulations and hardware demonstrations. These efforts and other optimization tasks were instrumental in reducing cost by 18 percent and weight by 45 percent relative to an aluminum baseline. The qualitative and quantitative results of the manufacturing demonstrations were used to assess manufacturing risks and technology readiness.

Impact of processes of care aimed at complication reduction on the cost of complex cancer surgery

PubMed Central

Ho, Vivian; Aloia, Thomas A.

2015-01-01

Background and Objectives Health care providers add multiple processes to the care of complex cancer patients, believing they prevent and/or ameliorate complications. However, the relationship between these processes, complication remediation, and expenditures is unknown. Methods Data for patients with cancer diagnoses undergoing colectomy, rectal resection, pulmonary lobectomy, pneumonectomy, esophagectomy, and pancreatic resection were obtained from hospital and inpatient physician Medicare claims for the years 2005–2009. Risk‐adjusted regression analyses measured the association between hospitalization costs and processes presumed to prevent and/or remedy complications common to high‐risk procedures. Results After controlling for comorbidities, analysis identified associations between increased costs and use of multiple processes, including arterial lines (4–12% higher; P < 0.001) and pulmonary artery catheters (23–33% higher; P < 0.001). Epidural analgesia was not associated with higher costs. Consultations were associated with 24‐44% (P < 0.001) higher costs, and total parenteral nutrition was associated with 13–31% higher costs (P < 0.001). Conclusions Many frequently utilized processes and services presumed to avoid and/or ameliorate complications are associated with increased surgical oncology costs. This suggests that the patient‐centered value of each process should be measured on a procedure‐specific basis. Likewise, further attention should be focused on defining the efficacy of each of these costly, but frequently unproven, additions to perioperative care. J. Surg. Oncol. 2015;112:610–615. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Surgical Oncology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26391328

Test and Evaluation for Enhanced Security: A Quantitative Method to Incorporate Expert Knowledge into Test Planning Decisions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rizzo, Davinia; Blackburn, Mark

Complex systems are comprised of technical, social, political and environmental factors as well as the programmatic factors of cost, schedule and risk. Testing these systems for enhanced security requires expert knowledge in many different fields. It is important to test these systems to ensure effectiveness, but testing is limited to due cost, schedule, safety, feasibility and a myriad of other reasons. Without an effective decision framework for Test and Evaluation (T&E) planning that can take into consideration technical as well as programmatic factors and leverage expert knowledge, security in complex systems may not be assessed effectively. Therefore, this paper coversmore » the identification of the current T&E planning problem and an approach to include the full variety of factors and leverage expert knowledge in T&E planning through the use of Bayesian Networks (BN).« less

Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

2015-01-01

Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

Projected Impact of Compositional Verification on Current and Future Aviation Safety Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

2014-01-01

The projected impact of compositional verification research conducted by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies on aviation safety risk was assessed. Software and compositional verification was described. Traditional verification techniques have two major problems: testing at the prototype stage where error discovery can be quite costly and the inability to test for all potential interactions leaving some errors undetected until used by the end user. Increasingly complex and nondeterministic aviation systems are becoming too large for these tools to check and verify. Compositional verification is a "divide and conquer" solution to addressing increasingly larger and more complex systems. A review of compositional verification research being conducted by academia, industry, and Government agencies is provided. Forty-four aviation safety risks in the Biennial NextGen Safety Issues Survey were identified that could be impacted by compositional verification and grouped into five categories: automation design; system complexity; software, flight control, or equipment failure or malfunction; new technology or operations; and verification and validation. One capability, 1 research action, 5 operational improvements, and 13 enablers within the Federal Aviation Administration Joint Planning and Development Office Integrated Work Plan that could be addressed by compositional verification were identified.

Phased Array Feeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. Richard; Bradley, Richard F.; Brisken, Walter F.; Cotton, William D.; Emerson, Darrel T.; Kerr, Anthony R.; Lacasse, Richard J.; Morgan, Matthew A.; Napier, Peter J.; Norrod, Roger D.; Payne, John M.; Pospieszalski, Marian W.; Symmes, Arthur; Thompson, A. Richard; Webber, John C.

2009-03-01

This white paper offers cautionary observations about the planning and development of new, large radio astronomy instruments. Complexity is a strong cost driver so every effort should be made to assign differing science requirements to different instruments and probably different sites. The appeal of shared resources is generally not realized in practice and can often be counterproductive. Instrument optimization is much more difficult with longer lists of requirements, and the development process is longer and less efficient. More complex instruments are necessarily further behind the technology state of the art because of longer development times. Including technology R&D in the construction phase of projects is a growing trend that leads to higher risks, cost overruns, schedule delays, and project de-scoping. There are no technology breakthroughs just over the horizon that will suddenly bring down the cost of collecting area. Advances come largely through careful attention to detail in the adoption of new technology provided by industry and the commercial market. Radio astronomy instrumentation has a very bright future, but a vigorous long-term R&D program not tied directly to specific projects needs to be restored, fostered, and preserved.

Large Instrument Development for Radio Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. Richard; Warnick, Karl F.; Jeffs, Brian D.; Norrod, Roger D.; Lockman, Felix J.; Cordes, James M.; Giovanelli, Riccardo

2009-03-01

This white paper offers cautionary observations about the planning and development of new, large radio astronomy instruments. Complexity is a strong cost driver so every effort should be made to assign differing science requirements to different instruments and probably different sites. The appeal of shared resources is generally not realized in practice and can often be counterproductive. Instrument optimization is much more difficult with longer lists of requirements, and the development process is longer and less efficient. More complex instruments are necessarily further behind the technology state of the art because of longer development times. Including technology R&D in the construction phase of projects is a growing trend that leads to higher risks, cost overruns, schedule delays, and project de-scoping. There are no technology breakthroughs just over the horizon that will suddenly bring down the cost of collecting area. Advances come largely through careful attention to detail in the adoption of new technology provided by industry and the commercial market. Radio astronomy instrumentation has a very bright future, but a vigorous long-term R&D program not tied directly to specific projects needs to be restored, fostered, and preserved.

Following the Money: Factors Associated with the Cost of Treating High-Cost Medicare Beneficiaries

PubMed Central

Reschovsky, James D; Hadley, Jack; Saiontz-Martinez, Cynthia B; Boukus, Ellyn R

2011-01-01

Objective To identify factors associated with the cost of treating high-cost Medicare beneficiaries. Data Sources A national sample of 1.6 million elderly, Medicare beneficiaries linked to 2004–2005 Community Tracking Study Physician Survey respondents and local market data from secondary sources. Study Design Using 12 months of claims data from 2005 to 2006, the sample was divided into predicted high-cost (top quartile) and lower cost beneficiaries using a risk-adjustment model. For each group, total annual standardized costs of care were regressed on beneficiary, usual source of care physician, practice, and market characteristics. Principal Findings Among high-cost beneficiaries, health was the predominant predictor of costs, with most physician and practice and many market factors (including provider supply) insignificant or weakly related to cost. Beneficiaries whose usual physician was a medical specialist or reported inadequate office visit time, medical specialist supply, provider for-profit status, care fragmentation, and Medicare fees were associated with higher costs. Conclusions Health reform policies currently envisioned to improve care and lower costs may have small effects on high-cost patients who consume most resources. Instead, developing interventions tailored to improve care and lowering cost for specific types of complex and costly patients may hold greater potential for “bending the cost curve.” PMID:21306368

The price of complexity in financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; May, Robert M.; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

2016-09-01

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises.

The price of complexity in financial networks.

PubMed

Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; May, Robert M; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E

2016-09-06

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises.

Probabilistic cost estimation methods for treatment of water extracted during CO 2 storage and EOR

DOE PAGES

Graham, Enid J. Sullivan; Chu, Shaoping; Pawar, Rajesh J.

2015-08-08

Extraction and treatment of in situ water can minimize risk for large-scale CO 2 injection in saline aquifers during carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Additionally, treatment and reuse of oil and gas produced waters for hydraulic fracturing will conserve scarce fresh-water resources. Each treatment step, including transportation and waste disposal, generates economic and engineering challenges and risks; these steps should be factored into a comprehensive assessment. We expand the water treatment model (WTM) coupled within the sequestration system model CO 2-PENS and use chemistry data from seawater and proposed injection sites in Wyoming,more » to demonstrate the relative importance of different water types on costs, including little-studied effects of organic pretreatment and transportation. We compare the WTM with an engineering water treatment model, utilizing energy costs and transportation costs. Specific energy costs for treatment of Madison Formation brackish and saline base cases and for seawater compared closely between the two models, with moderate differences for scenarios incorporating energy recovery. Transportation costs corresponded for all but low flow scenarios (<5000 m 3/d). Some processes that have high costs (e.g., truck transportation) do not contribute the most variance to overall costs. Other factors, including feed-water temperature and water storage costs, are more significant contributors to variance. These results imply that the WTM can provide good estimates of treatment and related process costs (AACEI equivalent level 5, concept screening, or level 4, study or feasibility), and the complex relationships between processes when extracted waters are evaluated for use during CCUS and EOR site development.« less

Computational Study of Scenarios Regarding Explosion Risk Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlasin, Nicolae-Ioan; Mihai Pasculescu, Vlad; Florea, Gheorghe-Daniel; Cornel Suvar, Marius

2016-10-01

Exploration in order to discover new deposits of natural gas, upgrading techniques to exploit these resources and new ways to convert the heat capacity of these gases into industrial usable energy is the research areas of great interest around the globe. But all activities involving the handling of natural gas (exploitation, transport, combustion) are subjected to the same type of risk: the risk to explosion. Experiments carried out physical scenarios to determine ways to reduce this risk can be extremely costly, requiring suitable premises, equipment and apparatus, manpower, time and, not least, presenting the risk of personnel injury. Taking in account the above mentioned, the present paper deals with the possibility of studying the scenarios of gas explosion type events in virtual domain, exemplifying by performing a computer simulation of a stoichiometric air - methane explosion (methane is the main component of natural gas). The advantages of computer-assisted imply are the possibility of using complex virtual geometries of any form as the area of deployment phenomenon, the use of the same geometry for an infinite number of settings of initial parameters as input, total elimination the risk of personnel injury, decrease the execution time etc. Although computer simulations are hardware resources consuming and require specialized personnel to use the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) techniques, the costs and risks associated with these methods are greatly diminished, presenting, in the same time, a major benefit in terms of execution time.

Comparison of sub-scaled to full-scaled aircrafts in simulation environment for air traffic management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbakary, Mohamed I.; Iftekharuddin, Khan M.; Papelis, Yiannis; Newman, Brett

2017-05-01

Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts are commonly tested in simulation to obtain preliminary results and validate the concepts before adoption. Recently, the researchers found that simulation is not enough because of complexity associated with ATM concepts. In other words, full-scale tests must eventually take place to provide compelling performance evidence before adopting full implementation. Testing using full-scale aircraft produces a high-cost approach that yields high-confidence results but simulation provides a low-risk/low-cost approach with reduced confidence on the results. One possible approach to increase the confidence of the results and simultaneously reduce the risk and the cost is using unmanned sub-scale aircraft in testing new concepts for ATM. This paper presents the simulation results of using unmanned sub-scale aircraft in implementing ATM concepts compared to the full scale aircraft. The results of simulation show that the performance of sub-scale is quite comparable to that of the full-scale which validates use of the sub-scale in testing new ATM concepts. Keywords: Unmanned

The Changing Financial Landscape of Renal Transplant Practice: A National Cohort Analysis.

PubMed

Axelrod, D A; Schnitzler, M A; Xiao, H; Naik, A S; Segev, D L; Dharnidharka, V R; Brennan, D C; Lentine, K L

2017-02-01

Kidney transplantation has become more resource intensive as recipient complexity has increased and average donor quality has diminished over time. A national retrospective cohort study was performed to assess the impact of kidney donor and recipient characteristics on transplant center cost (exclusive of organ acquisition) and Medicare reimbursement. Data from the national transplant registry, University HealthSystem Consortium hospital costs, and Medicare payments for deceased donor (N = 53 862) and living donor (N = 36 715) transplants from 2002 to 2013 were linked and analyzed using multivariate linear regression modeling. Deceased donor kidney transplant costs were correlated with recipient (Expected Post Transplant Survival Score, degree of allosensitization, obesity, cause of renal failure), donor (age, cause of death, donation after cardiac death, terminal creatinine), and transplant (histocompatibility matching) characteristics. Living donor costs rose sharply with higher degrees of allosensitization, and were also associated with obesity, cause of renal failure, recipient work status, and 0-ABDR mismatching. Analysis of Medicare payments for a subsample of 24 809 transplants demonstrated minimal correlation with patient and donor characteristics. In conclusion, the complexity in the landscape of kidney transplantation increases center costs, posing financial disincentives that may reduce organ utilization and limit access for higher-risk populations. © Copyright 2016 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Coast Guard Aircraft: Transfer of Fixed-Wing C-27J Aircraft Is Complex and Further Fleet Purchases Should Coincide with Study Results

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

C-27J to the Coast Guard. This report assesses (1) the status of the transfer and risks the Coast Guard faces in fielding the transferred aircraft...had transferred 2 of the 14 C-27J aircraft it is receiving from the Air Force to its aircraft maintenance facility, with plans to field 14 fully...Coast Guard continues to receive these aircraft in the near term, the capability and cost of the Coast Guard’s fixed-wing fleet runs the risk of being

Analysis of potential trade-offs in regulation of disinfection by-products

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cromwell, J.E.; Zhang, X.; Regli, S.

1992-11-01

Executive Order 12291 requires the preparation of a Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) on all new major federal regulations. The goal of an RIA is to develop and organize information on benefits, costs, and economic impacts so as to clarify trade-offs among alternative regulatory options. This paper outlines explicit methodology for assessing the technical potential for risk-risk tradeoffs. The strategies used to cope with complexities and uncertainties in developing the Disinfection By-Products Regulatory Analysis Model are explained. Results are presented and discussed in light of uncertainties, and in light of the analytical requirements for regulatory impact analysis.

Landslide Economics: Concepts and Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, Martin; Damm, Bodo

2015-04-01

Landslide economics is vital for fundamental understanding of landslide risk as dealing with two important topics: (i) impact assessment, either as damage statistics or cost modeling, and (ii) vulnerability assessment, i.e., the study of exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to landslide damage, ideally from both sociotechnical and financial perspective (e.g., Crovelli and Coe, 2009; Wills et al., 2014). Many aspects addressed in landslide economics have direct influence on landslide risk, including: (i) human activity is often a major causative factor of landslides, not only by predisposing or triggering them, but also as a result of inadequate (low-cost) landslide mitigation; (ii) the level of tolerable or acceptable risk, a measure driving a large part of landslide costs in industrialized countries, is highly variable, differing between individuals, public or private organizations, and societies, with its nature being to change over time; and (iii) decision makers are faced with finding the right balance in landslide mitigation, thus need to weight diverse geological and socioeconomic factors that control its effectiveness in both technical and financial terms (e.g., Klose et al., 2014a). A large part of the complexity in assessing landslide risk as measured by economic costs is due to unique problems in understanding of (i) what types of landslide damage affect human activity and infrastructure in which way, (ii) how society contributes and responds to various kinds of damage, and (iii) how landslide damage is valued in monetary terms. Landslide economics shows the potential to take account of these sociocultural factors to the benefit of risk analysis (e.g., Klose et al., 2014b). The present contribution introduces local and regional case studies in which different economic issues of landslide risk are highlighted using the example of public infrastructures in NW Germany. A special focus is on the following topics: (i) risk culture and created risk, (ii) disaster financing and budgetary burdens, and (iii) economic risk balancing in urban planning. The results of the conducted case studies are discussed with regard to method development for integrated assessment of landslide risk. References Crovelli, R.A., Coe, J.A., 2009. Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region. Georisk 3, 206-223. Klose, M., Highland, L., Damm, B., Terhorst, B., 2014a. Estimation of direct landslide costs in industrialized countries: challenges, concepts, and case study. In: Sassa, K., Canuti, P., Yin, Y. (Eds.), Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment. Volume 2: Methods of Landslide Studies. Springer, Berlin, pp. 661-667. Klose, M., Damm, B., Terhorst, B., 2014b. Landslide cost modeling for transportation infrastructures: a methodological approach. Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-014-0481-1. Wills, C., Perez, F., Branum, D., 2014. New Method for Estimating Landslide Losses from Major Winter Storms in California and Application to the ARkStorm Scenario. Natural Hazards Review, DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000142.

Cost Effectiveness of Antiplatelet and Antithrombotic Therapy in The Setting of Acute Coronary Syndrome: Current Perspective and Literature Review

PubMed Central

Fanari, Zaher; Weiss, Sandra; Weintraub, William S

2015-01-01

Acute Coronary Syndromes are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The advances of antiplatelet and anticoagulation therapy over several years time have result in in improved in cardiac outcomes, but with increased health care costs. Multiple cost effectiveness studies have been performed to evaluate the use of available antiplatelet agents and anticoagulation in the setting of both ST Elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and Non–ST Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Early on the use of GPI prove to be economically attractive in the management of ACS, however the introduction of P2Y12 receptor antagonist limited their use to a bail out agents in complex interventions. Generic clopidogrel is probably still an economically attractive P2Y12 receptor antagonist choice especially in low risk ACS, while both ticagrelor and prasugrel present an economically attractive alternative option especially in high risk ACS and patients at risk for stent thrombosis. While enoxaparin presents an economically dominant alternative to heparin in NSTE-ACS, its role in STEMI in the contemporary era is unclear. During PCI, bivalirudin monotherapy was shown to be an economically dominant alternative to the combination of heparin and GPI in ACS. However, new studies may suggest that using heparin monotherapy may offer an attractive alternative. The comparative and cost effectiveness of different combinations of antiplatelet and antithrombotic therapy will be the focus of future expected clinical and economic assessments. PMID:26068886

The open prototype for educational NanoSats: Fixing the other side of the small satellite cost equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Josh; Straub, Jeremy; Whalen, David

Government supported nano-satellite launch programs and emerging commercial small satellite launch services are reducing the cost of access to space for educational and other CubeSat projects. The cost and complexity of designing and building these satellites remains a vexing complication for many would be CubeSat aspirants. The Open Prototype for Educational NanoSats (OPEN), a proposed nano-satellite development platform, is described in this paper. OPEN endeavors to reduce the costs and risks associated with educational, government and commercial nano-satellite development. OPEN provides free and publicly available plans for building, testing and operating a versatile, low-cost satellite, based on the standardized CubeSat form-factor. OPEN consists of public-domain educational reference plans, complete with engineering schematics, CAD files, construction and test instructions as well as ancillary reference materials relevant to satellite building and operation. By making the plan, to produce a small but capable spacecraft freely available, OPEN seeks to lower the barriers to access on the other side (non-launch costs) of the satellite cost equation.

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

Atmospheric, Magnetospheric and plasmas in Space (AMPS) spacelab payload definition study; Volume 4: Part 3, Labcraft instrument systems general specification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeley, J. T.

1976-01-01

Guidelines and general requirements applicable to the development of instrument flight hardware intended for use on the GSFC Shuttle Scientific Payloads Program are given. Criteria, guidelines, and an organized approach to specifying the appropriate level of requirements for each instrument in order to permit its development at minimum cost while still assuring crew safety, are included. It is recognized that the instruments for these payloads will encompass wide ranges of complexity, cost, development risk, and safety hazards. The flexibility required to adapt the controls, documentation, and verification requirements in accord with the specific instrument is provided.

Costs of pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation

PubMed Central

Majhail, Navneet S; Mothukuri, Jaya M; MacMillan, Margaret L; Verneris, Michael R; Orchard, Paul J; Wagner, John E; Weisdorf, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Background Allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation (HCT), although curative for some high-risk diseases, is a complex and costly procedure. The costs of transplantation among children have not been described previously. Procedure We compared the costs of HCT within the first 100-days among children who received myeloablative HCT from either a matched related donor (MRD, N=27), matched unrelated donor (MUD, N=28) or unrelated umbilical cord blood (UCB, N=91). We also conducted analyses to describe predictors of higher costs of transplantation. Results The 100-day probabilities of overall survival were 96%, 96% and 87% for MRD, MUD and UCB, respectively. The median cost per day survived (excluding costs of graft acquisition) was $3,403 (interquartile-range [IQR], 2,838-3,819) for MRD, $3,833 (IQR, 3,402-4,134) for MUD and $3,964 (IQR, 3,351-4,952) for UCB recipients. The costs of MUD and UCB HCT remained similar when costs of graft acquisition were considered within total costs of transplantation. In multivariate analysis adjusting for important patient, disease and transplant related characteristics, factors associated with higher costs within the first 100-days were HCT using MUD (relative-risk [RR] 1.2 [95% confidence-intervals, 1.0-1.3]) or UCB (RR 1.2 [1.1-1.3]), Lansky score <90 at transplant (RR 1.3 [1.2-1.4]), graft failure (RR 1.6 [1.5-1.7]), need for dialysis (RR 1.7 [1.6-1.8]), need for mechanical ventilation (RR 1.4 [1.3-1.5]) and occurrence of hepatic veno-occlusive disease (RR 1.3 [1.1-1.6]). Conclusions Within the first 100-days, the absolute costs of MUD and UCB HCT are similar, while MRD HCT is less costly. These costs are primarily driven by severe post-transplant complications and graft failure. PMID:19693941

Health technology assessment (HTA): a brief introduction of history and the current status in the field of cardiology under the economic crisis.

PubMed

Fanourgiakis, John; Kanoupakis, Emmanuel

2015-08-01

In a time of economic recession health technology assessment is an established aid in decision making in many countries in order to identify cost-containment policy options. Moreover, as the volume, complexity, and cost of new medical technology increases, the need for evaluating benefits, risks and costs becomes increasingly important. In recent years there has been a proliferation of health technology assessment initiatives internationally, aimed in introducing rationality in the decision-making process, informing reimbursement, providing clinical guidance on the use of medical technologies across the world in an evidence-based decision-making environment and in pricing decisions. © 2015 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Prevalence and proposal for cost-effective management of the ciguatera risk in the Noumea fish market, New Caledonia (South Pacific).

PubMed

Clua, Eric; Brena, Pierpaolo F; Lecasble, Côme; Ghnassia, Reine; Chauvet, Claude

2011-11-01

Ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) is a common intoxication associated with the consumption of reef fish, which constitutes a critical issue for public health in many countries. The complexity of its epidemiology is responsible for the poor management of the risk in tropical fish markets. We used the example of the Noumea fish market in New Caledonia to develop a cost-effective methodology of assessing the CFP risk. We first used published reports and the knowledge of local experts to define a list of potentially poisonous local species, ranked by their ciguatoxic potential. Based on two 1-month surveys in the market, conducted in winters 2008 and 2009, we then calculated the consolidated ratio of biomass of potentially poisonous species vs. total biomass of fish sold on the market. The prevalence of high CFP-risk species in the market was 16.1% and 18.9% in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The most common high CFP risk species were groupers (serranids), king mackerels (scombrids), snappers (lutjanids), barracudas (sphyaraenids), emperors (lethrinids) and wrasses (labrids). The size (age) of the fish also plays a critical role in the potential ciguatoxic risk. According to proposals of average size thresholds provided by experts for high-risk species, we were also able to assess the additional risk induced by the sale of some large fish on the market. The data collected both from experts and from the market allowed us to develop a cost-effective proposal for improving the management of the CFP risk in this market. However, the successful implementation of any regulation aiming to ban some specific species and sizes from the market, with an acceptable economical impact, will require the improvement of the expertise in fish identification by public health officers and, ideally, the commitment of retailers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis-based Cost Groups in the Dutch Risk-equalization Model: Effects of Clustering Diagnoses and of Allowing Patients to be Classified into Multiple Risk-classes.

PubMed

Eijkenaar, Frank; van Vliet, René C J A; van Kleef, Richard C

2018-01-01

The risk-equalization (RE) model in the Dutch health insurance market has evolved to a sophisticated model containing direct proxies for health. However, it still has important imperfections, leaving incentives for risk selection. This paper focuses on refining an important health-based risk-adjuster in this model: the diagnosis-based costs groups (DCGs). The current (2017) DCGs are calibrated on "old" data of 2011/2012, are mutually exclusive, and are essentially clusters of about 200 diagnosis-groups ("dxgroups"). Hospital claims data (2013), administrative data (2014) on costs and risk-characteristics for the entire Dutch population (N≈16.9 million), and health survey data (2012, N≈387,000) are used. The survey data are used to identify subgroups of individuals in poor or in good health. The claims and administrative data are used to develop alternative DCG-modalities to examine the impact on individual-level and group-level fit of recalibrating the DCGs based on new data, of allowing patients to be classified in multiple DCGs, and of refraining from clustering. Recalibrating the DCGs and allowing enrolees to be classified into multiple DCGs lead to nontrivial improvements in individual-level and group-level fit (especially for cancer patients and people with comorbid conditions). The improvement resulting from refraining from clustering does not seem to justify the increase in model complexity this would entail. The performance of the sophisticated Dutch RE-model can be improved by allowing classification in multiple (clustered) DCGs and using new data. Irrespective of the modality used, however, various subgroups remain significantly undercompensated. Further improvement of the RE-model merits high priority.

Incremental Benefit of a Home Visit Following Discharge for Patients with Multiple Chronic Conditions Receiving Transitional Care

PubMed Central

Jackson, Carlos; Kasper, Elizabeth W.; Williams, Christianna

2016-01-01

Abstract Transitional care management is effective at reducing hospital readmissions among patients with multiple chronic conditions, but evidence is lacking on the relative benefit of the home visit as a component of transitional care. The sample included non-dual Medicaid recipients with multiple chronic conditions enrolled in Community Care of North Carolina (CCNC), with a hospital discharge between July 2010 and December 2012. Using claims data and care management records, this study retrospectively examined whether home visits reduced the odds of 30-day readmission compared to less intensive transitional care support, using multivariate logistic regression to control for demographic and clinical characteristics. Additionally, the researchers examined group differences within clinical risk strata on inpatient admissions and total cost of care in the 6 months following hospital discharge. Of 35,174 discharges receiving transitional care from a CCNC care manager, 21% (N = 7468) included a home visit. In multivariate analysis, home visits significantly reduced the odds of readmission within 30 days (odds ratio = 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.48–0.57). At the 6-month follow-up, home visits were associated with fewer inpatient admissions within 4 of 6 clinical risk strata, and lower total costs of care for highest risk patients (average per member per month cost difference $970; P < 0.01). For complex chronic patients, home visits reduced the likelihood of a 30-day readmission by almost half compared to less intensive forms of nurse-led transitional care support. Higher risk patients experienced the greatest benefit in terms of number of inpatient admissions and total cost of care in the 6 months following discharge. (Population Health Management 2016;19:163–170) PMID:26431255

The EP-3E vs. the BAMS UAS: An Operating and Support Cost Comparison

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Accountability Office HALE High Altitude Long Endurance ISR Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance JCC Joint Architecture...others are very complex high altitude long endurance (HALE) aircraft. However, most share the common need for satellite bandwidth. The DoD plan is...collection sites, and risks as they apply to the BAMS UAS. These factors were not adequately considered in the original O&S analysis . Once the analysis

Medical economic impact of tracheotomy patients on a hospital system.

PubMed

Altman, Kenneth W; Banoff, Karen Merl; Tong, Charles C L

2015-04-01

Tracheotomy patients are a small portion of hospitalizations, but account for disproportionately high risk and costs. There are many complex decisions that go into the care of these patients, and practice variation is expected to be compounded in a health system. This study sought to characterize the medical economic impact of tracheotomy patients on the hospital system. A retrospective review of the health system's hospital billing software was performed for 2013, and pertinent outcomes measures were tabulated. There were 829 tracheotomies performed in the health system of seven hospitals, with total costs of $128,883,865. Average length of stay was 36.74 days for principal procedures, and 43.36 days for tracheotomy as secondary procedures. Mortality was ∼ 18% overall, and re-admissions were 10.93% for primary, and 14.36% for secondary procedures. A fairly wide variation in each category among the different hospitals was observed. There are potentially many factors that impact variations of care and outcomes in patients with tracheotomy. Due to their large economic impact and risks for morbidity and mortality, a formalized care pathway is warranted. Goals of the pathway should include understanding medical decisions surrounding these complex patients, monitoring pertinent outcomes, reducing practice variation, and improving the efficiency of compassionate care.

The Healthy LifeWorks Project: a pilot study of the economic analysis of a comprehensive workplace wellness program in a Canadian government department.

PubMed

Makrides, Lydia; Smith, Steven; Allt, Jane; Farquharson, Jane; Szpilfogel, Claudine; Curwin, Sandra; Veinot, Paula; Wang, Feifei; Edington, Dee

2011-07-01

To examine the relationship between health risks and absenteeism and drug costs vis-a-vis comprehensive workplace wellness. Eleven health risks, and change in drug claims, short-term and general illness calculated across four risk change groups. Wellness score examined using Wilcoxon test and regression model for cost change. The results showed 31% at risk; 9 of 11 risks associated with higher drug costs. Employees moving from low to high risk showed highest relative increase (81%) in drug costs; moving from high to low had lowest (24%). Low-high had highest increase in absenteeism costs (160%). With each risk increase, absenteeism costs increased by $CDN248 per year (P < 0.05) with average decrease of 0.07 risk factors and savings $CDN6979 per year. Both high-risk reduction and low-risk maintenance are important to contain drug costs. Only low-risk maintenance also avoids absenteeism costs associated with high risks.

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.

The relationship between health risks and health and productivity costs among employees at Pepsi Bottling Group.

PubMed

Henke, Rachel M; Carls, Ginger S; Short, Meghan E; Pei, Xiaofei; Wang, Shaohung; Moley, Susan; Sullivan, Mark; Goetzel, Ron Z

2010-05-01

To evaluate relationships between modifiable health risks and costs and measure potential cost savings from risk reduction programs. Health risk information from active Pepsi Bottling Group employees who completed health risk assessments between 2004 and 2006 (N = 11,217) were linked to medical care, workers' compensation, and short-term disability cost data. Ten health risks were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate costs associated with having high risk, holding demographics, and other risks constant. Potential savings from risk reduction were estimated. High risk for weight, blood pressure, glucose, and cholesterol had the greatest impact on total costs. A one-percentage point annual reduction in the health risks assessed would yield annual per capita savings of $83.02 to $103.39. Targeted programs that address modifiable health risks are expected to produce substantial cost reductions in multiple benefit categories.

Cost analysis of Topical Negative Pressure (TNP) Therapy for traumatic acquired wounds.

PubMed

Kolios, Leila; Kolios, Georg; Beyersdorff, Marius; Dumont, Clemens; Stromps, Jan; Freytag, Sebastian; Stuermer, Klaus

2010-06-15

Extended traumatic wounds require extended reconstructive operations and are accompanied by long hospitalizations and risks of infection, thrombosis and flap loss. In particular, the frequently used Topical Negative Pressure (TNP) Therapy is regarded as cost-intensive. The costs of TNP in the context of traumatic wounds is analyzed using the method of health economic evaluation. All patients (n=67: 45 male, 22 female; average age 54 y) with traumatically acquired wounds being treated with TNP at the university hospital of Goettingen in the period 01/01/2005-31/12/2007 comprise the basis for this analysis. The concept of activity-based costing based on clinical pathways according to InEK (National Institute for the Hospital Remuneration System) systematic calculations was chosen for cost accounting. In addition, a special module system adaptable for individual courses of disease was developed. The treated wounds were located on a lower extremity in 83.7% of cases (n=56) and on an upper extremity in 16.3% of cases (n=11). The average time of hospitalization of the patients was 54 days. Twenty-five patients (37.31%) exceeded the "maximum length of stay" of their associated DRG (Diagnosis Related Groups). The total PCCL (patient clinical complexity level = patient severity score) of 2.99 reflects the seriousness of disease. For the treatment of the 67 patients, total costs were $1,729,922.32 (1,249,176.91 euro). The cost calculation showed a financial deficit of $-210,932.50 (-152,314.36 euro). Within the entire treatment costs of $218,848.07 (158,030.19 euro), 12.65% per case were created by TNP with material costs of $102,528.74 (74,036 euro), representing 5.92% of entire costs. The cost of TNP per patient averaged $3,266.39 (2,358.66 euro). The main portion of the costs was not - as is often expected - due to high material costs of TNP but instead to long-term treatments. Because of their complexity, the cases are insufficiently represented in the lump-sum calculation of the InEK. A differentiated integration of complex TNP-treatment in the DRG system (e.g., as an expanded DRG I98Z) would be a step towards cost recovery. In addition, the refunding of outpatient TNP-treatment would lead to enhanced quality of life for the patients and to a reduction of hospital costs and length of stay.

Preventing type 2 diabetes: systematic review of studies of cost-effectiveness of lifestyle programmes and metformin, with and without screening, for pre-diabetes

PubMed Central

Roberts, Samantha; Barry, Eleanor; Craig, Dawn; Airoldi, Mara; Bevan, Gwyn; Greenhalgh, Trisha

2017-01-01

Objective Explore the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions and metformin in reducing subsequent incidence of type 2 diabetes, both alone and in combination with a screening programme to identify high-risk individuals. Design Systematic review of economic evaluations. Data sources and eligibility criteria Database searches (Embase, Medline, PreMedline, NHS EED) and citation tracking identified economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions or metformin alone or in combination with screening programmes in people at high risk of developing diabetes. The International Society for Pharmaco-economics and Outcomes Research’s Questionnaire to Assess Relevance and Credibility of Modelling Studies for Informing Healthcare Decision Making was used to assess study quality. Results 27 studies were included; all had evaluated lifestyle interventions and 12 also evaluated metformin. Primary studies exhibited considerable heterogeneity in definitions of pre-diabetes and intensity and duration of lifestyle programmes. Lifestyle programmes and metformin appeared to be cost effective in preventing diabetes in high-risk individuals (median incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £7490/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and £8428/QALY, respectively) but economic estimates varied widely between studies. Intervention-only programmes were in general more cost effective than programmes that also included a screening component. The longer the period evaluated, the more cost-effective interventions appeared. In the few studies that evaluated other economic considerations, budget impact of prevention programmes was moderate (0.13%–0.2% of total healthcare budget), financial payoffs were delayed (by 9–14 years) and impact on incident cases of diabetes was limited (0.1%–1.6% reduction). There was insufficient evidence to answer the question of (1) whether lifestyle programmes are more cost effective than metformin or (2) whether low-intensity lifestyle interventions are more cost effective than the more intensive lifestyle programmes that were tested in trials. Conclusions The economics of preventing diabetes are complex. There is some evidence that diabetes prevention programmes are cost effective, but the evidence base to date provides few clear answers regarding design of prevention programmes because of differences in denominator populations, definitions, interventions and modelling assumptions. PMID:29146638

Cost Discrepancy, Signaling, and Risk Taking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemon, Jim

2005-01-01

If risk taking is in some measure a signal to others by the person taking risks, the model of "costly signaling" predicts that the more the apparent cost of the risk to others exceeds the perceived cost of the risk to the risk taker, the more attractive that risk will be as a signal. One hundred and twelve visitors to youth…

The price of complexity in financial networks

PubMed Central

May, Robert M.; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

2016-01-01

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises. PMID:27555583

High blood pressure, Alzheimer disease and antihypertensive treatment.

PubMed

Marfany, Agustí; Sierra, Cristina; Camafort, Miguel; Doménech, Mónica; Coca, Antonio

2018-03-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, is a complex disease, the mechanisms of which are poorly understood. AD represents 70% of all dementia cases, affecting up to 50% of elderly persons aged 85 or older, with functional dependence, poor quality of life, institutionalization and mortality. Advanced age is the main risk factor of AD, that is why population ageing, due to life expectancy improvements, increases AD incidence and prevalence, as well as the economic, social, and emotional costs associated with this illness. Existing anti-AD drugs present some limitations, as they target specific downstream neurochemical abnormalities while the upstream underlying pathology continues unchecked. Chronic hypertension has been suggested as one of the largest modifiable risk factors for developing AD. At least 25% of all adults and more than 50% of those over 60 years of age have hypertension. Epidemiological studies have shown that hypertension is a risk factor for dementia and AD, but the association is complex. Some studies have demonstrated that antihypertensive drugs can reduce the risk of AD. This review focuses on current knowledge about the relationship between chronic hypertension and AD as well as antihypertensive treatment effect on AD pathogenesis and its clinical outcomes.

Costing the cascade: estimating the cost of increased obstetric intervention in childbirth using population data.

PubMed

Tracy, Sally K; Tracy, Mark B

2003-08-01

To estimate the cost of "the cascade" of obstetric interventions introduced during labour for low risk women. A cost formula derived from population data. New South Wales, Australia. All 171,157 women having a live baby during 1996 and 1997. Four groups of interventions that occur during labour were identified. A cost model was constructed using the known age-adjusted rates for low risk women having one of three birth outcomes following these pre-specified interventions. Costs were based on statewide averages for the cost of labour and birth in hospital. The outcome measure is an "average cost unit per woman" for low risk women, predicted by the level of intervention during labour. Obstetric care is classified as either private obstetric care in a private or public hospital, or routine public hospital care. The relative cost of birth increased by up to 50% for low risk primiparous women and up to 36% for low risk multiparous women as labour interventions accumulated. An epidural was associated with a sharp increase in cost of up to 32% for some primiparous low risk women, and up to 36% for some multiparous low risk women. Private obstetric care increased the overall relative cost by 9% for primiparous low risk women and 4% for multiparous low risk women. The initiation of a cascade of obstetric interventions during labour for low risk women is costly to the health system. Private obstetric care adds further to the cost of care for low risk women.

Results from the NASA Spacecraft Fault Management Workshop: Cost Drivers for Deep Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newhouse, Marilyn E.; McDougal, John; Barley, Bryan; Stephens Karen; Fesq, Lorraine M.

2010-01-01

Fault Management, the detection of and response to in-flight anomalies, is a critical aspect of deep-space missions. Fault management capabilities are commonly distributed across flight and ground subsystems, impacting hardware, software, and mission operations designs. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for five missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that four out of the five missions studied had significant overruns due to underestimating the complexity and support requirements for fault management. As a result of this and other recent experiences, the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Division (PSD) commissioned a workshop to bring together invited participants across government, industry, and academia to assess the state of the art in fault management practice and research, identify current and potential issues, and make recommendations for addressing these issues. The workshop was held in New Orleans in April of 2008. The workshop concluded that fault management is not being limited by technology, but rather by a lack of emphasis and discipline in both the engineering and programmatic dimensions. Some of the areas cited in the findings include different, conflicting, and changing institutional goals and risk postures; unclear ownership of end-to-end fault management engineering; inadequate understanding of the impact of mission-level requirements on fault management complexity; and practices, processes, and tools that have not kept pace with the increasing complexity of mission requirements and spacecraft systems. This paper summarizes the findings and recommendations from that workshop, particularly as fault management development issues affect operations and the development of operations capabilities.

Comparing excess costs across multiple corporate populations.

PubMed

Wright, Douglas; Adams, Laura; Beard, Marshall J; Burton, Wayne N; Hirschland, David; McDonald, Timothy; Napier, Deborah; Galante, Salvatore; Smith, Thomas; Edington, D W

2004-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of health risk level to charged medical costs and determine the excess cost of higher risk individuals compared to low risk. Two years of medical claims from six corporations were used to determine costs of health risk assessment (HRA) participants and nonparticipants. A total of 165,770 employees, 21,124 of which took an HRA, were used for the study. Costs increased as risk level increased. There were no significant differences within a risk level between companies for the cost ratio. Percent of medical costs due to excess risk ranged from 15.0-30.8% for HRA participants and 23.8-38.3% for the study population. Cost patterns were consistent across companies. Excess cost as the result of increased risk level accounted for a substantial portion of the cost at each company. These results can be used to justify the need for a health-promotion program and to estimate potential savings as the result of excess risk. Even without the use of an HRA, health practitioners should feel confident stating that excess risk accounts for at least 25% to 30% of medical costs per year across a wide variety of companies, regardless of industry or demographics. The numbers can be used as a realistic estimate for any health promotion program financial proposal.

Multi-dimensional Precision Livestock Farming: a potential toolbox for sustainable rangeland management.

PubMed

di Virgilio, Agustina; Morales, Juan M; Lambertucci, Sergio A; Shepard, Emily L C; Wilson, Rory P

2018-01-01

Precision Livestock Farming (PLF) is a promising approach to minimize the conflicts between socio-economic activities and landscape conservation. However, its application on extensive systems of livestock production can be challenging. The main difficulties arise because animals graze on large natural pastures where they are exposed to competition with wild herbivores for heterogeneous and scarce resources, predation risk, adverse weather, and complex topography. Considering that the 91% of the world's surface devoted to livestock production is composed of extensive systems (i.e., rangelands), our general aim was to develop a PLF methodology that quantifies: (i) detailed behavioural patterns, (ii) feeding rate, and (iii) costs associated with different behaviours and landscape traits. For this, we used Merino sheep in Patagonian rangelands as a case study. We combined data from an animal-attached multi-sensor tag (tri-axial acceleration, tri-axial magnetometry, temperature sensor and Global Positioning System) with landscape layers from a Geographical Information System to acquire data. Then, we used high accuracy decision trees, dead reckoning methods and spatial data processing techniques to show how this combination of tools could be used to assess energy balance, predation risk and competition experienced by livestock through time and space. The combination of methods proposed here are a useful tool to assess livestock behaviour and the different factors that influence extensive livestock production, such as topography, environmental temperature, predation risk and competition for heterogeneous resources. We were able to quantify feeding rate continuously through time and space with high accuracy and show how it could be used to estimate animal production and the intensity of grazing on the landscape. We also assessed the effects of resource heterogeneity (inferred through search times), and the potential costs associated with predation risk, competition, thermoregulation and movement on complex topography. The quantification of feeding rate and behavioural costs provided by our approach could be used to estimate energy balance and to predict individual growth, survival and reproduction. Finally, we discussed how the information provided by this combination of methods can be used to develop wildlife-friendly strategies that also maximize animal welfare, quality and environmental sustainability.

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rowell, Ginger Holmes

1999-01-01

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

An inexact risk management model for agricultural land-use planning under water shortage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Feng, Changchun; Dai, Chao; Li, Yongping; Li, Chunhui; Liu, Ming

2016-09-01

Water resources availability has a significant impact on agricultural land-use planning, especially in a water shortage area such as North China. The random nature of available water resources and other uncertainties in an agricultural system present risk for land-use planning and may lead to undesirable decisions or potential economic loss. In this study, an inexact risk management model (IRM) was developed for supporting agricultural land-use planning and risk analysis under water shortage. The IRM model was formulated through incorporating a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to control uncertainties expressed as not only probability distributions but also as discrete intervals. The measure of risk about the second-stage penalty cost was incorporated into the model so that the trade-off between system benefit and extreme expected loss could be analyzed. The developed model was applied to a case study in the Zhangweinan River Basin, a typical agricultural region facing serious water shortage in North China. Solutions of the IRM model showed that the obtained first-stage land-use target values could be used to reflect decision-makers' opinions on the long-term development plan. The confidence level α and maximum acceptable risk loss β could be used to reflect decisionmakers' preference towards system benefit and risk control. The results indicated that the IRM model was useful for reflecting the decision-makers' attitudes toward risk aversion and could help seek cost-effective agricultural land-use planning strategies under complex uncertainties.

Non-genetic risk factors and their influence on the management of patients in the clinic.

PubMed

Álvarez, Teresa; Soto, Immaculada; Astermark, Jan

2015-02-01

The development of inhibitors is the most serious iatrogenic complication affecting patients with haemophilia. This complication is associated with impaired vital or functional prognosis, reduced quality of life and increased cost of treatment. The reasons why some patients develop antibodies to factor replacement and others do not remain unclear. It is however clear that inhibitor development results from a complex multifactorial interaction between genetic and non-genetic risk factors. Environmental influences implicated in increasing the risk of inhibitor formation can be viewed as modifiable risk factors. Therefore, identification of the non-genetic risk factors may offer the possibility of personalising haemophilia therapy by modifying treatment strategies in high-risk patients in the critical early phase of factor VIII exposure. In this article, we review the non-genetic factors reported as well as the potential impact of danger signals and the different scores for inhibitor development risk stratification. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

Infornut® Process; improves accessibility to diagnosis and nutritional support for the malnourished hospitalized patient; impact on management indicators; two-year assessment.

PubMed

Villalobos Gámez, Juan Luis; González Pérez, Cristina; García-Almeida, José Manuel; Martínez Reina, Alfonso; Del Río Mata, José; Márquez Fernández, Efrén; Rioja Vázquez, Rosalía; Barranco Pérez, Joaquín; Enguix Armada, Alfredo; Rodríguez García, Luis Miguel; Bernal Losada, Olga; Osorio Fernández, Diego; Mínguez Mañanes, Alfredo; Lara Ramos, Carlos; Dani, Laila; Vallejo Báez, Antonio; Martínez Martín, Jesús; Fernández Ovies, José Manuel; Tinahones Madueño, Francisco Javier; Fernández-Crehuet Navajas, Joaquín

2014-06-01

The high prevalence of disease-related hospital malnutrition justifies the need for screening tools and early detection in patients at risk for malnutrition, followed by an assessment targeted towards diagnosis and treatment. At the same time there is clear undercoding of malnutrition diagnoses and the procedures to correct it Objectives: To describe the INFORNUT program/ process and its development as an information system. To quantify performance in its different phases. To cite other tools used as a coding source. To calculate the coding rates for malnutrition diagnoses and related procedures. To show the relationship to Mean Stay, Mortality Rate and Urgent Readmission; as well as to quantify its impact on the hospital Complexity Index and its effect on the justification of Hospitalization Costs. The INFORNUT® process is based on an automated screening program of systematic detection and early identification of malnourished patients on hospital admission, as well as their assessment, diagnoses, documentation and reporting. Of total readmissions with stays longer than three days incurred in 2008 and 2010, we recorded patients who underwent analytical screening with an alert for a medium or high risk of malnutrition, as well as the subgroup of patients in whom we were able to administer the complete INFORNUT® process, generating a report for each. Other documentary coding sources are cited. From the Minimum Basic Data Set, codes defined in the SEDOMSENPE consensus were analyzed. The data were processed with the Alcor-DRG program. Rates in ‰ of discharges for 2009 and 2010 of diagnoses of malnutrition, procedure and procedures-related diagnoses were calculated. These rates were compared with the mean rates in Andalusia. The contribution of these codes to the Complexity Index was estimated and, from the cost accounting data, the fraction of the hospitalization cost seen as justified by this activity was estimated. RESULTS are summarized for both study years. With respect to process performance, more than 3,600 patients per year (30% of admissions with a stay > 3 days) underwent analytical screening. Half of these patients were at medium or high risk and a nutritional assessment using INFORNUT® was completed for 55% of them, generating approximately 1,000 reports/year. Our coding rates exceeded the mean rates in Andalusia, being 3.5 times higher for diagnoses (35‰); 2.5 times higher for procedures (50‰) and five times the rate of procedurerelated diagnoses in the same patient (25‰). The Mean Stay of patients coded with malnutrition at discharge was 31.7 days, compared to 9.5 for the overall hospital stay. The Mortality Rate for the same patients (21.8%) was almost five times higher than the mean and Urgent Readmissions (5.5%) were 1.9 times higher. The impact of this coding on the hospital Complexity Index was four hundredths (from 2.08 to 2.12 in 2009 and 2.15 to 2.19 in 2010). This translates into a hospitalization cost justification of 2,000,000; five to six times the cost of artificial nutrition. The process facilitated access to the diagnosis of malnutrition and to understanding the risk of developing it, as well as to the prescription of procedures and/or supplements to correct it. The interdisciplinary team coordination, the participatory process and the tools used improved coding rates to give results far above the Andalusian mean. These results help to upwardly adjust the hospital Complexity Index or Case Mix-, as well as to explain hospitalization costs. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Wireless Sensor Network Security Enhancement Using Directional Antennas: State of the Art and Research Challenges.

PubMed

Curiac, Daniel-Ioan

2016-04-07

Being often deployed in remote or hostile environments, wireless sensor networks are vulnerable to various types of security attacks. A possible solution to reduce the security risks is to use directional antennas instead of omnidirectional ones or in conjunction with them. Due to their increased complexity, higher costs and larger sizes, directional antennas are not traditionally used in wireless sensor networks, but recent technology trends may support this method. This paper surveys existing state of the art approaches in the field, offering a broad perspective of the future use of directional antennas in mitigating security risks, together with new challenges and open research issues.

New NATO Members: Security Consumers or Producers?

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

political constraints.3 Dr. Jamie Shea Director of Policy Planning, NATO Burden-sharing can be defined as “the distribution of costs and risks among...certainly a “guns versus butter ” debate in the allocation of resources, the demand for military expenditures is more complex. Social welfare spending...Outputs. At the end of the day, political solidarity is more important than specific notions of equal numerical contributions.64 Dr. Jamie Shea Director

Prevention of Pressure Ulcers in the Acute Care Setting: New Innovations and Technologies.

PubMed

Tran, Jacquelynn P; McLaughlin, Jillian M; Li, Ramon T; Phillips, Linda G

2016-09-01

Pressure ulcers (PUs) challenge many in the healthcare field requiring costly and complex care. PUs result from prolonged ischemia and subsequent soft-tissue injury caused by unrelieved pressure over a bony prominence. Proper risk assessment and implementation of prevention strategies for PUs are crucial to providing comprehensive care while reducing healthcare costs. The emphasis has led to the expansion of research in PU prevention technologies in the recent years. The aim of this review is to present an evidence-based summary of some of the new innovations in PU prevention. A literature search was performed. Articles were included if the article discussed the cost, prevalence, assessment, diagnosis, and/or prevention of PUs. The literature search was limited to 2013 to 2016. A total of 1393 potential studies were identified using the search criteria. Three hundred fifty-three articles were reviewed and when possible, preference for inclusion was given to those studies with a higher level of evidence or those discussing novel ideas/innovations. The summary of topics explored includes the following: the use of risk assessment scales as an adjunct in risk identification, the benefit of alternative support surfaces to aid in prevention as compared with standard hospital mattresses, effective repositioning strategies, silicone prophylactic dressing for shear reduction, microclimate control, nutritional considerations, use of electrical stimulation for spinal cord injury patients, and the importance of patient participation.

Shooting the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andrews, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

This story is about an unlikely NASA mission to the Moon. It was unlikely because it was started with far too little time and too-little money to complete. It was unlikely because it was able to take chances to accept risk of failure. It was unlikely because it was searching for the unthinkable: water-ice on the moon... Figure 1-1: LCROSS Mission. The mission of the Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) was to investigate the possibility of water ice in craters on the Moon s poles. This is certainly an interesting scientific topic in itself, but I intend to focus on the compelling experience of managing the LCROSS Project in the context of this storied Agency. Perhaps most interesting are the implications this story has for managing any development effort, lunar or not, and working a balance to achieve success. NASA is by design a risk-taking agency within the US Government. It could be argued that NASA s purpose in the aerospace community is to take on the really big challenges that either the corporate world can t afford, are not yet profitable endeavors, or are just too risky for private corporations to entertain. However, expectations of the Agency have evolved. A combination of grim human tragedies and some very public cost and schedule overruns have challenged the public s and Congress s tolerance for risk-taking within the Agency. NASA, which is supposed to be in the business of taking risks to do bold, difficult things, has become less and less able to do so within its cost framework. Yet effectively replacing prudent risk management with attempts to "risk-eliminate" is completely unaffordable. So where does risk-taking fit within the Agency, or within private/corporate organizations for that matter? Where astronauts play there is clearly concern about risk. When an organization puts humans in harm s way, it is understandably going to take extra effort to assure nobody gets hurt. Doing so, of course, costs money - a lot of money to pay for labor and hardware which is attempting to assure nothing will go wrong. Sophisticated designs, with doubly- or triply-redundant systems, extensive testing to verify those systems, and numerous engineering test units built to learn and evolve a hardware design, all drive the cost and time required to implement. Human spaceflight is an expensive business because of the exceptional system complexity and levels of assurance required for human space travel. What about missions that do not involve human spaceflight? What about missions whose potential failure will not take a human life, whose costs are small and whose urgency and importance are limited by design? A portfolio consisting of this type of mission can be designed to be risk tolerant, not requiring large expenditures to guarantee against failure. With the money saved, the number of missions that can be executed within the portfolio grows, or the total cost of the portfolio can be reduced. The NASA LCROSS mission is a pathfinder example of a low-cost, quick turn-around mission which struck a balance on mission risk, while accomplishing big objectives, like defining how we understand the Moon.

Searching for a business case for quality in Medicaid managed care.

PubMed

Greene, Sandra B; Reiter, Kristin L; Kilpatrick, Kerry E; Leatherman, Sheila; Somers, Stephen A; Hamblin, Allison

2008-01-01

Despite the prevalence of evidence-based interventions to improve quality in health care systems, there is a paucity of documented evidence of a financial return on investment (ROI) for these interventions from the perspective of the investing entity. To report on a demonstration project designed to measure the business case for selected quality interventions in high-risk high-cost patient populations in 10 Medicaid managed care organizations across the United States. Using claims and enrollment data gathered over a 3-year period and data on the costs of designing, implementing, and operating the interventions, ROIs were computed for 11 discrete evidence-based quality-enhancing interventions. A complex case management program to treat adults with multiple comorbidities achieved the largest ROI of 12.21:1. This was followed by an ROI of 6.35:1 for a program which treated children with asthma with a history of high emergency room (ER) use and/or inpatient admissions for their disease. An intervention for high-risk pregnant mothers produced a 1.26:1 ROI, and a program for adult patients with diabetes resulted in a 1.16:1 return. The remaining seven interventions failed to show positive returns, although four sites came close to realizing sufficient savings to offset investment costs. Evidence-based interventions designed to improve the quality of patient care may have the best opportunity to yield a positive financial return if it is focused on high-risk high-cost populations and conditions associated with avoidable emergency and inpatient utilization. Developing the necessary tracking systems for the claims and financial investments is critical to perform accurate financial ROI analyses.

The cost-effectiveness of psychotherapy for the major psychiatric diagnoses.

PubMed

Lazar, Susan G

2014-09-01

Psychotherapy is an effective and often highly cost-effective medical intervention for many serious psychiatric conditions. Psychotherapy can also lead to savings in other medical and societal costs. It is at times the firstline and most important treatment and at other times augments the efficacy of psychotropic medication. Many patients are in need of more prolonged and intensive psychotherapy, including those with personality disorders and those with chronic complex psychiatric conditions often with severe anxiety and depression. Many patients with serious and complex psychiatric illness have experienced severe early life trauma in an atmosphere in which family members or caretakers themselves have serious psychiatric disorders. Children and adolescents with learning disabilities and those with severe psychiatric disorders can also require more than brief treatment. Other diagnostic groups for whom psychotherapy is effective and cost-effective include patients with schizophrenia, anxiety disorders (including posttraumatic stress disorder), depression, and substance abuse. In addition, psychotherapy for the medically ill with concomitant psychiatric illness often lowers medical costs, improves recovery from medical illness, and at times even prolongs life compared to similar patients not given psychotherapy. While "cost-effective" treatments can yield savings in healthcare costs, disability claims, and other societal costs, "cost-effective" by no means translates to "cheap" but instead describes treatments that are clinically effective and provided at a cost that is considered reasonable given the benefit they provide, even if the treatments increase direct expenses. In the current insurance climate in which Mental Health Parity is the law, insurers nonetheless often use their own non-research and non-clinically based medical necessity guidelines to subvert it and limit access to appropriate psychotherapeutic treatments. Many patients, especially those who need extended and intensive psychotherapy, are at risk of receiving substandard care due to inadequate insurance reimbursement. These patients remain vulnerable to residual illness and the concomitant sequelae in lost productivity, dysfunctional interpersonal and family relationships, comorbidity including increased medical and surgical services, and increased mortality.

A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

PubMed

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Landslide databases to compare regional repair and mitigation strategies of transportation infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlers, Annika; Damm, Bodo

2017-04-01

Regional data of the Central German Uplands are extracted from the German landslide database in order to understand the complex interactions between landslide risks and public risk awareness considering transportation infrastructure. Most information within the database is gathered by means of archive studies from inventories of emergency agencies, state, press and web archives, company and department records as well as scientific and (geo)technical literature. The information includes land use practices, repair and mitigation measures with resultant costs of the German road network as well as railroad and waterway networks. It therefore contains valuable information of historical and current landslide impacts, elements at risk and provides an overview of spatiotemporal changes in social exposure and vulnerability to landslide hazards over the last 120 years. On a regional scale the recorded infrastructure damages, and consequential repair or mitigation measures were categorized and classified, according to relevant landslide types, processes and types of infrastructure. In a further step, the data of recent landslides are compared with historical and modern repair and mitigation measures and are correlated with socioeconomic concepts. As a result, it is possible to identify some complex interactions between landslide hazard, risk perception, and damage impact, including time lags and intensity thresholds. The data reveal distinct concepts of repairing respectively mitigating landslides on different types of transportation infrastructure, which are not exclusively linked to higher construction efforts (e.g. embankments on railroads and channels), but changing levels of economic losses and risk perception as well. In addition, a shift from low cost prevention measures such as the removal of loose rock and vegetation, rock blasting, and catch barriers towards expensive mitigation measures such as catch fences, soil anchoring and rock nailing over time can be noticed. This temporal shift is associated with a higher public hazard awareness towards landslides which is at some sites linked to an apparent increase in landslide frequency and magnitude. Damm B., Klose M. (2015) The landslide database for Germany: Closing the gap at national level. Geomorphology. 249: 82-93. Klose, M., Damm, B., Terhorst, B. (2015): Landslide cost modeling for transportation infrastructures: a methodological approach. Landslides 12: 321-334. Klose M., Maurischat P., Damm B. (2016) Landslide impacts in Germany: A historical and socioeconomic perspective. Landslides. 13: 183-199.

Spatial Heterogeneity in the Strength of Plant-Herbivore Interactions under Predation Risk: The Tale of Bison Foraging in Wolf Country

PubMed Central

Harvey, Léa; Fortin, Daniel

2013-01-01

Spatial heterogeneity in the strength of trophic interactions is a fundamental property of food web spatial dynamics. The feeding effort of herbivores should reflect adaptive decisions that only become rewarding when foraging gains exceed 1) the metabolic costs, 2) the missed opportunity costs of not foraging elsewhere, and 3) the foraging costs of anti-predator behaviour. Two aspects of these costs remain largely unexplored: the link between the strength of plant-herbivore interactions and the spatial scale of food-quality assessment, and the predator-prey spatial game. We modeled the foraging effort of free-ranging plains bison (Bison bison bison) in winter, within a mosaic of discrete meadows. Spatial patterns of bison herbivory were largely driven by a search for high net energy gains and, to a lesser degree, by the spatial game with grey wolves (Canis lupus). Bison decreased local feeding effort with increasing metabolic and missed opportunity costs. Bison herbivory was most consistent with a broad-scale assessment of food patch quality, i.e., bison grazed more intensively in patches with a low missed opportunity cost relative to other patches available in the landscape. Bison and wolves had a higher probability of using the same meadows than expected randomly. This co-occurrence indicates wolves are ahead in the spatial game they play with bison. Wolves influenced bison foraging at fine scale, as bison tended to consume less biomass at each feeding station when in meadows where the risk of a wolf's arrival was relatively high. Also, bison left more high-quality vegetation in large than small meadows. This behavior does not maximize their energy intake rate, but is consistent with bison playing a shell game with wolves. Our assessment of bison foraging in a natural setting clarifies the complex nature of plant-herbivore interactions under predation risk, and reveals how spatial patterns in herbivory emerge from multi-scale landscape heterogeneity. PMID:24039909

Risk-adjusted capitation funding models for chronic disease in Australia: alternatives to casemix funding.

PubMed

Antioch, K M; Walsh, M K

2002-01-01

Under Australian casemix funding arrangements that use Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) the average price is policy based, not benchmarked. Cost weights are too low for State-wide chronic disease services. Risk-adjusted Capitation Funding Models (RACFM) are feasible alternatives. A RACFM was developed for public patients with cystic fibrosis treated by an Australian Health Maintenance Organization (AHMO). Adverse selection is of limited concern since patients pay solidarity contributions via Medicare levy with no premium contributions to the AHMO. Sponsors paying premium subsidies are the State of Victoria and the Federal Government. Cost per patient is the dependent variable in the multiple regression. Data on DRG 173 (cystic fibrosis) patients were assessed for heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, structural stability and functional form. Stepwise linear regression excluded non-significant variables. Significant variables were 'emergency' (1276.9), 'outlier' (6377.1), 'complexity' (3043.5), 'procedures' (317.4) and the constant (4492.7) (R(2)=0.21, SE=3598.3, F=14.39, Prob<0.0001. Regression coefficients represent the additional per patient costs summed to the base payment (constant). The model explained 21% of the variance in cost per patient. The payment rate is adjusted by a best practice annual admission rate per patient. The model is a blended RACFM for in-patient, out-patient, Hospital In The Home, Fee-For-Service Federal payments for drugs and medical services; lump sum lung transplant payments and risk sharing through cost (loss) outlier payments. State and Federally funded home and palliative services are 'carved out'. The model, which has national application via Coordinated Care Trials and by Australian States for RACFMs may be instructive for Germany, which plans to use Australian DRGs for casemix funding. The capitation alternative for chronic disease can improve equity, allocative efficiency and distributional justice. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) is a promising alternative classification system for capitation arrangements.

Risk of infection due to medical interventions via central venous catheters or implantable venous access port systems at the middle port of a three-way cock: luer lock cap vs. luer access split septum system (Q-Syte).

PubMed

Pohl, Fabian; Hartmann, Werner; Holzmann, Thomas; Gensicke, Sandra; Kölbl, Oliver; Hautmann, Matthias G

2014-01-25

Many cancer patients receive a central venous catheter or port system prior to therapy to assure correct drug administration. Even appropriate hygienic intervention maintenance carries the risk of contaminating the middle port (C-port) of a three-way cock (TWC), a risk that increases with the number of medical interventions. Because of the complexity of the cleaning procedure with disconnection and reconnection of the standard luer lock cap (referred as "intervention"), we compared luer lock caps with a "closed access system" consisting of a luer access split septum system with regard to process optimization (work simplification, process time), efficiency (costs) and hygiene (patient safety). For determination of process optimization the workflow of an intervention according to the usual practice and risks was depicted in a process diagram. For determining the actual process costs, we analyzed use of material and time parameters per intervention and used the process parameters for programming the process into a simulation run (n = 1000) to determine the process costs as well as their differences (ACTUAL vs. NOMINAL) within the framework of a discrete event simulation.Additionally cultures were carried out at the TWC C-ports to evaluate possible contamination. With the closed access system, the mean working time of 5.5 minutes could be reduced to 2.97 minutes. The results for average process costs (labour and material costs per use) were 3.92 € for luer lock caps and 2.55 € for the closed access system. The hypothesis test (2-sample t-test, CI 0.95, p-value<0.05) confirmed the significance of the result.In 50 reviewed samples (TWC's), the contamination rate for the luer lock cap was 8% (4 out of 50 samples were positive), the contamination rate of the 50 samples with the closed access system was 0%.Possible hygienic risks (related to material, surroundings, staff handling) could be reduced by 65.38%. In the present research, the closed access system with a divided split septum was superior to conventional luer lock caps. The advantage of the closed access system lies in the simplified handling for staff, which results in a reduced risk of patient infection due to improved clinical hygiene.

Integration of RAMS in LCC analysis for linear transport infrastructures. A case study for railways.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calle-Cordón, Álvaro; Jiménez-Redondo, Noemi; Morales-Gámiz, F. J.; García-Villena, F. A.; Garmabaki, Amir H. S.; Odelius, Johan

2017-09-01

Life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis is an economic technique used to assess the total costs associated with the lifetime of a system in order to support decision making in long term strategic planning. For complex systems, such as railway and road infrastructures, the cost of maintenance plays an important role in the LCC analysis. Costs associated with maintenance interventions can be more reliably estimated by integrating the probabilistic nature of the failures associated to these interventions in the LCC models. Reliability, Maintainability, Availability and Safety (RAMS) parameters describe the maintenance needs of an asset in a quantitative way by using probabilistic information extracted from registered maintenance activities. Therefore, the integration of RAMS in the LCC analysis allows obtaining reliable predictions of system maintenance costs and the dependencies of these costs with specific cost drivers through sensitivity analyses. This paper presents an innovative approach for a combined RAMS & LCC methodology for railway and road transport infrastructures being developed under the on-going H2020 project INFRALERT. Such RAMS & LCC analysis provides relevant probabilistic information to be used for condition and risk-based planning of maintenance activities as well as for decision support in long term strategic investment planning.

Evaluation on Cost Overrun Risks of Long-distance Water Diversion Project Based on SPA-IAHP Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuanyue, Yang; Huimin, Li

2018-02-01

Large investment, long route, many change orders and etc. are main causes for costs overrun of long-distance water diversion project. This paper, based on existing research, builds a full-process cost overrun risk evaluation index system for water diversion project, apply SPA-IAHP method to set up cost overrun risk evaluation mode, calculate and rank weight of every risk evaluation indexes. Finally, the cost overrun risks are comprehensively evaluated by calculating linkage measure, and comprehensive risk level is acquired. SPA-IAHP method can accurately evaluate risks, and the reliability is high. By case calculation and verification, it can provide valid cost overrun decision making information to construction companies.

Using random forest for reliable classification and cost-sensitive learning for medical diagnosis.

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Wang, Hua-zhen; Mi, Hong; Lin, Cheng-de; Cai, Wei-wen

2009-01-30

Most machine-learning classifiers output label predictions for new instances without indicating how reliable the predictions are. The applicability of these classifiers is limited in critical domains where incorrect predictions have serious consequences, like medical diagnosis. Further, the default assumption of equal misclassification costs is most likely violated in medical diagnosis. In this paper, we present a modified random forest classifier which is incorporated into the conformal predictor scheme. A conformal predictor is a transductive learning scheme, using Kolmogorov complexity to test the randomness of a particular sample with respect to the training sets. Our method show well-calibrated property that the performance can be set prior to classification and the accurate rate is exactly equal to the predefined confidence level. Further, to address the cost sensitive problem, we extend our method to a label-conditional predictor which takes into account different costs for misclassifications in different class and allows different confidence level to be specified for each class. Intensive experiments on benchmark datasets and real world applications show the resultant classifier is well-calibrated and able to control the specific risk of different class. The method of using RF outlier measure to design a nonconformity measure benefits the resultant predictor. Further, a label-conditional classifier is developed and turn to be an alternative approach to the cost sensitive learning problem that relies on label-wise predefined confidence level. The target of minimizing the risk of misclassification is achieved by specifying the different confidence level for different class.

Factors influencing cost-related nonadherence to medication in older adults: a conceptually based approach.

PubMed

Zivin, Kara; Ratliff, Scott; Heisler, Michele M; Langa, Kenneth M; Piette, John D

2010-01-01

Although multiple noncost factors likely influence a patient's propensity to forego treatment in the face of cost pressures, little is known about how patients' sociodemographic characteristics, physical and behavioral health comorbidities, and prescription regimens influence cost-related nonadherence (CRN) to medications. We sought to determine both financial and nonfinancial factors associated with CRN in a nationally representative sample of older adults. We used a conceptual model developed by Piette and colleagues that describes financial and nonfinancial factors that could increase someone's risk of CRN, including income, comorbidities, and medication regimen complexity. We used data from the 2004 wave of the Health and Retirement Study and the 2005 HRS Prescription Drug Study to examine the influence of factors within each of these domains on measures of CRN (including not filling, stopping, or skipping doses) in a nationally representative sample of Americans age 65+ in 2005. Of the 3071 respondents who met study criteria, 20% reported some form of CRN in 2005. As in prior studies, indicators of financial stress such as higher out-of-pocket payments for medications and lower net worth were significantly associated with CRN in multivariable analyses. Controlling for these economic pressures, relatively younger respondents (ages 65-74) and depressive symptoms were consistent independent risk factors for CRN. Noncost factors influenced patients' propensity to forego treatment even in the context of cost concerns. Future research encompassing clinician and health system factors should identify additional determinants of CRN beyond patients' cost pressures.

Aortic anatomic severity grade correlates with resource utilization.

PubMed

Rasheed, Khurram; Cullen, John P; Seaman, Matthew J; Messing, Susan; Ellis, Jennifer L; Glocker, Roan J; Doyle, Adam J; Stoner, Michael C

2016-03-01

Potential cost effectiveness of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) compared with open aortic repair (OAR) is offset by the use of intraoperative adjuncts (components) or late reinterventions. Anatomic severity grade (ASG) can be used preoperatively to assess abdominal aortic aneurysms, and provide a quantitative measure of anatomic complexity. The hypothesis of this study is that ASG is directly related to the use of intraoperative adjuncts and cost of aortic repair. Patients who undergo elective OAR and EVAR for abdominal aortic aneurysms were identified over a consecutive 3-year period. ASG scores were calculated manually using three-dimensional reconstruction software by two blinded reviewers. Statistical analysis of cost data was performed using a log transformation. Regression analyses, with a continuous or dichotomous outcome, used a generalized estimating equations approach with the sandwich estimator, being robust with respect to deviations from model assumptions. One hundred forty patients were identified for analysis, n = 33 OAR and n = 107 EVAR. The mean total cost (± standard deviation) for OAR was per thousand (k) $38.3 ± 49.3, length of stay (LOS) 13.5 ± 14.2 days, ASG score 18.13 ± 3.78; for EVAR, mean total cost was k $24.7 ± 13.0 (P = .016), LOS 3.0 ± 4.4 days (P = .012), ASG score 15.9 ± 4.13 (P = .010). In patients who underwent EVAR, 25.2% required intraoperative adjuncts, and analysis of this group revealed a mean total cost of k $31.5 ± 15.9, ASG score 18.48 ± 3.72, and LOS 3.9 ± 4.5, which were significantly greater compared with cases without adjunctive procedures. An ASG score of ≥15 correlated with an increased propensity for requirement of intraoperative adjuncts; odds ratio, 5.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.82-18.19). ASG >15 was also associated with chronic kidney disease, end stage renal disease, hypertension, female sex, increased cost, and use of adjunctive procedures. Complex aneurysm anatomy correlates with increased total cost and need for adjunctive procedures during EVAR. Preoperative assessment with ASG scores can delineate patients at greater risk for increased resource use. Patient comorbid factors are associated with anatomic complexity defined according to ASG. A critical examination of the relationship between anatomic complexity and finances is required within the context of aggressive endovascular treatment strategies and shifts toward value-based reimbursement. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contamination Sources Effects Analysis (CSEA) - A Tool to Balance Cost/Schedule While Managing Facility Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, Margaret

2008-01-01

A CSEA is similar to a Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA). A CSEA tracks risk, deterrence, and occurrence of sources of contamination and their mitigation plans. Documentation is provided spanning mechanical and electrical assembly, precision cleaning, thermal vacuum bake-out, and thermal vacuum testing. These facilities all may play a role in contamination budgeting and reduction ultimately affecting test and flight. With a CSEA, visibility can be given to availability of these facilities, test sequencing and trade-offs. A cross-functional team including specialty engineering, contamination control, electrostatic dissipation, manufacturing, testing, and material engineering participate in an exercise that identifies contaminants and minimizes the complexity of scheduling these facilities considering their volatile schedules. Care can be taken in an efficient manner to insure correct cleaning processes are employed. The result is reduction in cycle time ("schedule hits"), reduced cost due to rework, reduced risk and improved communication and quality while achieving adherence to the Contamination Control Plan.

Aiming to Improve Readmissions Through InteGrated Hospital Transitions (AIRTIGHT): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

McWilliams, Andrew; Roberge, Jason; Moore, Charity G; Ashby, Avery; Rossman, Whitney; Murphy, Stephanie; McCall, Stephannie; Brown, Ryan; Carpenter, Shannon; Rissmiller, Scott; Furney, Scott

2016-12-19

Hospital readmissions remain highly prevalent despite being the target of policies and financial penalties. Evidence comparing the effectiveness and costs of interventions to reduce readmissions is lacking, leaving healthcare systems with little guidance on how to improve quality and avoid costly penalties. Effective interventions likely need to bridge inpatient and outpatient settings, incorporate information technology, and use dedicated providers. Such complex innovations will require rigorous evaluation. The framework of quality improvement research provides an approach that both improves care locally and contributes to closing the current knowledge gaps for readmissions. In this trial, we will study a comprehensive intervention that incorporates these recommendations into an integrated practice unit, called transition services, with an aim of reducing 30-day readmission rates. We describe a nonblinded, pragmatic, controlled trial with two parallel groups comprising an evaluation of the effect of referral to a provider-led integrated practice unit, inclusive of comprehensive multidisciplinary care, dedicated paramedicine providers, and virtual visits, on 30-day readmission rates for high-risk hospitalized patients. An automated risk-scoring system will randomly generate referrals to either transition services or usual care for 1520 hospitalized patients who score as high-risk for readmission. Transition services will then engage with patients in the hospital setting using a patient navigator and provide bridging outpatient services for the 30 days following discharge. All outcome data are retrieved electronically from administrative medical records. After reapplication of inclusion and exclusion criteria at the time of hospital discharge, analyses will follow the intention-to-treat principle such that patients will be analyzed on the basis of the referral group to which they were initially randomized. The hospital transition program under study is complex and integrates the latest recommendations for readmission reduction strategies. As healthcare systems innovate to address readmissions through such complex interventions, there is significant benefit for stakeholders to have a clear understanding of the potential reach, cost, and real-world effectiveness. The pragmatic methods described here provide a template for conducting quality improvement research that fits seamlessly into existing care delivery and improvement efforts, leading to better-informed strategic decisions and the investments necessary to transform care and value for patients. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02763202 . Registered 3 March 2016 (retrospectively registered).

Healthcare tariffs for specialist inpatient neurorehabilitation services: rationale and development of a UK casemix and costing methodology.

PubMed

Turner-Stokes, Lynne; Sutch, Stephen; Dredge, Robert

2012-03-01

To describe the rationale and development of a casemix model and costing methodology for tariff development for specialist neurorehabilitation services in the UK. Patients with complex needs incur higher treatment costs. Fair payment should be weighted in proportion to costs of providing treatment, and should allow for variation over time CASEMIX MODEL AND BAND-WEIGHTING: Case complexity is measured by the Rehabilitation Complexity Scale (RCS). Cases are divided into five bands of complexity, based on the total RCS score. The principal determinant of costs in rehabilitation is staff time. Total staff hours/week (estimated from the Northwick Park Nursing and Therapy Dependency Scales) are analysed within each complexity band, through cross-sectional analysis of parallel ratings. A 'band-weighting' factor is derived from the relative proportions of staff time within each of the five bands. Total unit treatment costs are obtained from retrospective analysis of provider hospitals' budget and accounting statements. Mean bed-day costs (total unit cost/occupied bed days) are divided broadly into 'variable' and 'non-variable' components. In the weighted costing model, the band-weighting factor is applied to the variable portion of the bed-day cost to derive a banded cost, and thence a set of cost-multipliers. Preliminary data from one unit are presented to illustrate how this weighted costing model will be applied to derive a multilevel banded payment model, based on serial complexity ratings, to allow for change over time.

[Risk Management: concepts and chances for public health].

PubMed

Palm, Stefan; Cardeneo, Margareta; Halber, Marco; Schrappe, Matthias

2002-01-15

Errors are a common problem in medicine and occur as a result of a complex process involving many contributing factors. Medical errors significantly reduce the safety margin for the patient and contribute additional costs in health care delivery. In most cases adverse events cannot be attributed to a single underlying cause. Therefore an effective risk management strategy must follow a system approach, which is based on counting and analysis of near misses. The development of defenses against the undesired effects of errors should be the main focus rather than asking the question "Who blundered?". Analysis of near misses (which in this context can be compared to indicators) offers several methodological advantages as compared to the analysis of errors and adverse events. Risk management is an integral element of quality management.

When systems fail: improving care through technology can create risk.

PubMed

Bagalio, Sharon A

2007-01-01

Emerging medical technology is transforming the care of the modern-day patient. Hospital performance and patient safety is improving, lowering professional liability and medical malpractice costs. This advanced technology affects not only diagnosis and treatment but also hospital productivity and revenue. However, it also exposes hospitals and medical personnel to a number of unforeseeable risks. This article examines ongoing efforts to improve patient safety through the use of technology, automation and complex systems operations. It discusses the importance of skilled negotiation when vying for technology contracts and the value of maintaining a reliable data center to support it. Technology risk exposure is now a reality. A hospital needs to know how to protect itself from cyber liability, business interruption, and data loss and theft by ensuring that there is adequate coverage.

A Case Report: Cornerstone Health Care Reduced the Total Cost of Care Through Population Segmentation and Care Model Redesign.

PubMed

Green, Dale E; Hamory, Bruce H; Terrell, Grace E; O'Connell, Jasmine

2017-08-01

Over the course of a single year, Cornerstone Health Care, a multispecialty group practice in North Carolina, redesigned the underlying care models for 5 of its highest-risk populations-late-stage congestive heart failure, oncology, Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibles, those with 5 or more chronic conditions, and the most complex patients with multiple late-stage chronic conditions. At the 1-year mark, the results of the program were analyzed. Overall costs for the patients studied were reduced by 12.7% compared to the year before enrollment. All fully implemented programs delivered between 10% and 16% cost savings. The key area for savings factor was hospitalization, which was reduced by 30% across all programs. The greatest area of cost increase was "other," a category that consisted in large part of hospice services. Full implementation was key; 2 primary care sites that reverted to more traditional models failed to show the same pattern of savings.

Fault Management Guiding Principles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newhouse, Marilyn E.; Friberg, Kenneth H.; Fesq, Lorraine; Barley, Bryan

2011-01-01

Regardless of the mission type: deep space or low Earth orbit, robotic or human spaceflight, Fault Management (FM) is a critical aspect of NASA space missions. As the complexity of space missions grows, the complexity of supporting FM systems increase in turn. Data on recent NASA missions show that development of FM capabilities is a common driver for significant cost overruns late in the project development cycle. Efforts to understand the drivers behind these cost overruns, spearheaded by NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD), indicate that they are primarily caused by the growing complexity of FM systems and the lack of maturity of FM as an engineering discipline. NASA can and does develop FM systems that effectively protect mission functionality and assets. The cost growth results from a lack of FM planning and emphasis by project management, as well the maturity of FM as an engineering discipline, which lags behind the maturity of other engineering disciplines. As a step towards controlling the cost growth associated with FM development, SMD has commissioned a multi-institution team to develop a practitioner's handbook representing best practices for the end-to-end processes involved in engineering FM systems. While currently concentrating primarily on FM for science missions, the expectation is that this handbook will grow into a NASA-wide handbook, serving as a companion to the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook. This paper presents a snapshot of the principles that have been identified to guide FM development from cradle to grave. The principles range from considerations for integrating FM into the project and SE organizational structure, the relationship between FM designs and mission risk, and the use of the various tools of FM (e.g., redundancy) to meet the FM goal of protecting mission functionality and assets.

Executive Overview of SEI MOSAIC: Managing for Success Using a Risk-Based Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

and pro - vides the lens through which all potential outcomes are viewed and interpreted. Defining the con - text is thus an essential first step when...Success Analysis and Improvement Crite- ria (SEI MOSAIC)—a suite of advanced analysis methods for assessing complex, distributed pro - grams, processes...achieve that set of objectives, four ac- tivities must be executed in the order shown, while also adhering to any cost and schedule con - straints. Process

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-12-31

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements inmore » health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada`s concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health.« less

The use of cluster analysis techniques in spaceflight project cost risk estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, G.; Ebbeler, D.; Jorgensen, E.

2003-01-01

Project cost risk is the uncertainty in final project cost, contingent on initial budget, requirements and schedule. For a proposed mission, a dynamic simulation model relying for some of its input on a simple risk elicitation is used to identify and quantify systemic cost risk.

48 CFR 2152.216-70 - Fixed price with limited cost redetermination-risk charge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... cost redetermination-risk charge. 2152.216-70 Section 2152.216-70 Federal Acquisition Regulations....216-70 Fixed price with limited cost redetermination—risk charge. As prescribed in 2116.270-1(a), insert the following clause when a risk charge is negotiated: Fixed Price With Limited Cost...

SEU System Analysis: Not Just the Sum of All Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie D.; Label, Kenneth

2014-01-01

Single event upset (SEU) analysis of complex systems is challenging. Currently, system SEU analysis is performed by component level partitioning and then either: the most dominant SEU cross-sections (SEUs) are used in system error rate calculations; or the partition SEUs are summed to eventually obtain a system error rate. In many cases, system error rates are overestimated because these methods generally overlook system level derating factors. The problem with overestimating is that it can cause overdesign and consequently negatively affect the following: cost, schedule, functionality, and validation/verification. The scope of this presentation is to discuss the risks involved with our current scheme of SEU analysis for complex systems; and to provide alternative methods for improvement.

Cost assessment of natural hazards in Europe - state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, V.; Becker, N.; Markantonis, V.; Schwarze, R.; van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Bouwer, L. M.; Bubeck, P.; Ciavola, P.; Thieken, A. H.; Genovese, E.; Green, C.; Hallegatte, S.; Kreibich, H.; Lequeux, Q.; Viavattenne, C.; Logar, I.; Papyrakis, E.; Pfurtscheller, C.; Poussin, J.; Przyluski, V.

2012-04-01

Effective and efficient reduction of natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards in order to develop sustainable risk management strategies. The current methods that assess the costs of different natural hazards employ a diversity of terminologies and approaches for different hazards and impacted sectors. This makes it difficult to arrive at robust, comprehensive and comparable cost figures. The CONHAZ (Costs of Natural Hazards) project aimed to compile and synthesise current knowledge on cost assessment methods in order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management and adaptation planning. In order to achieve this, CONHAZ has adopted a comprehensive approach, considering natural hazards ranging from droughts, floods and coastal hazards to Alpine hazards, as well as different impacted sectors and cost types. Its specific objectives have been 1) to compile the state-of-the-art methods for cost assessment; 2) to analyse and assess these methods in terms of technical aspects, as well as terminology, data quality and availability, and research gaps; and 3) to synthesise resulting knowledge into recommendations and to identify further research needs. This presentation summarises the main results of CONHAZ. CONHAZ differentiates between direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and costs of risk mitigation. It is shown that the main focus of cost assessment methods and their application in practice is on direct costs, while existing methods for assessing intangible and indirect effects are rather rarely applied and methods for assessing indirect effects often cannot be used on the scale of interest (e.g. the regional scale). Furthermore, methods often focus on single sectors and/or hazards, and only very few are able to reflect several sectors or multiple hazards. Process understanding and its use in cost assessment is poor, leading to highly uncertain results. However, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses as well as validations are hardly undertaken. Important recommendations are that cost assessment can be made more comprehensive by including indirect and intangible effects. Furthermore, the importance is highlighted of identifying sources of uncertainties, of reducing them effectively and of documenting remaining ones. One source of uncertainty concerns data sources. A framework for supporting data collection on the European level ensuring minimum data quality standards would facilitate the development and consistency of European and national databases. Furthermore, an improvement of methods is needed with regard to a better understanding and modelling of the damaging processes. In particular, there is a need for a better understanding of the economic response to external shocks and to improve models for indirect cost assessment based on this. Also models to estimate direct economic damage need to be based on more knowledge about the complex processes leading to damages. Moreover, the dynamics of risk due to climate and socio-economic change have to be better considered in the models in order to unveil uncertainties about future developments in the costs of natural hazards. Finally, there is a need for appropriate and transparent tools and guidance to support decision makers in the integration of uncertain cost assessment figures into decision making.

Spacecraft Autonomy and Automation: A Comparative Analysis of Strategies for Cost Effective Mission Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Nathaniel, Jr.

2000-01-01

The evolution of satellite operations over the last 40 years has drastically changed. October 4, 1957 (during the cold war) the Soviet Union launched the world's first spacecraft into orbit. The Sputnik satellite orbited Earth for three months and catapulted the United States into a race for dominance in space. A year after Sputnik, President Dwight Eisenhower formed the National Space and Aeronautics Administration (NASA). With a team of scientists and engineers, NASA successfully launched Explorer 1, the first US satellite to orbit Earth. During these early years, massive amounts of ground support equipment and operators were required to successfully operate spacecraft vehicles. Today, budget reductions and technological advances have forced new approaches to spacecraft operations. These approaches require increasingly complex, on board spacecraft systems, that enable autonomous operations, resulting in more cost-effective mission operations. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, considered world class in satellite development and operations, has developed and operated over 200 satellites during its 40 years of existence. NASA Goddard is adopting several new millennium initiatives that lower operational costs through the spacecraft autonomy and automation. This paper examines NASA's approach to spacecraft autonomy and ground system automation through a comparative analysis of satellite missions for Hubble Space Telescope-HST, Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous-NEAR, and Solar Heliospheric Observatory-SoHO, with emphasis on cost reduction methods, risk analysis and anomalies and strategies employed for mitigating risk.

Costing the satellite power system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

1978-01-01

The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

Risk Factors Contributing to Type 2 Diabetes and Recent Advances in the Treatment and Prevention

PubMed Central

Wu, Yanling; Ding, Yanping; Tanaka, Yoshimasa; Zhang, Wen

2014-01-01

Type 2 diabetes is a serious and common chronic disease resulting from a complex inheritance-environment interaction along with other risk factors such as obesity and sedentary lifestyle. Type 2 diabetes and its complications constitute a major worldwide public health problem, affecting almost all populations in both developed and developing countries with high rates of diabetes-related morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been increasing exponentially, and a high prevalence rate has been observed in developing countries and in populations undergoing “westernization” or modernization. Multiple risk factors of diabetes, delayed diagnosis until micro- and macro-vascular complications arise, life-threatening complications, failure of the current therapies, and financial costs for the treatment of this disease, make it necessary to develop new efficient therapy strategies and appropriate prevention measures for the control of type 2 diabetes. Herein, we summarize our current understanding about the epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, the roles of genes, lifestyle and other factors contributing to rapid increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The core aims are to bring forward the new therapy strategies and cost-effective intervention trials of type 2 diabetes. PMID:25249787

Identifying cost-effective treatment with raloxifene in postmenopausal women using risk algorithms for fractures and invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Ivergård, M; Ström, O; Borgström, F; Burge, R T; Tosteson, A N A; Kanis, J

2010-11-01

The National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) recommends considering treatment in women with a 20% or higher 10-year probability of a major fracture. However, raloxifene reduces both the risk of vertebral fractures and invasive breast cancer so that raloxifene treatment may be clinically appropriate and cost-effective in women who do not meet a 20% threshold risk. The aim of this study was to identify cost-effective scenarios of raloxifene treatment compared to no treatment in younger postmenopausal women at increased risk of invasive breast cancer and fracture risks below 20%. A micro-simulation model populated with data specific to American Caucasian women was used to quantify the costs and benefits of 5-year raloxifene treatment. The population evaluated was selected based on 10-year major fracture probability as estimated with FRAX® being below 20% and 5-year invasive breast cancer risk as estimated with the Gail risk model ranging from 1% to 5%. The cost per QALY gained ranged from US $22,000 in women age 55 with 5% invasive breast cancer risk and 15-19.9% fracture probability, to $110,000 in women age 55 with 1% invasive breast cancer risk and 5-9.9% fracture probability. Raloxifene was progressively cost-effective with increasing fracture risk and invasive breast cancer risk for a given age cohort. At lower fracture risk in combination with lower invasive breast cancer risk or when no preventive raloxifene effect on invasive breast cancer was assumed, the cost-effectiveness of raloxifene worsened markedly and was not cost-effective given a willingness-to-pay of US $50,000. At fracture risk of 15-19.9% raloxifene was cost-effective also in women at lower invasive breast cancer risk. Raloxifene is potentially cost-effective in cohorts of young postmenopausal women, who do not meet the suggested NOF 10-year fracture risk threshold. The cost-effectiveness is contingent on their 5-year invasive breast cancer risk. The result highlights the importance of considering a woman's full risk profile when considering anti-osteoporosis treatment. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei

2017-11-01

Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

Costs of pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation.

PubMed

Majhail, Navneet S; Mothukuri, Jaya M; Macmillan, Margaret L; Verneris, Michael R; Orchard, Paul J; Wagner, John E; Weisdorf, Daniel J

2010-01-01

Allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation (HCT), although curative for some high-risk diseases, is a complex and costly procedure. The costs of transplantation among children have not been described previously. We compared the costs of HCT within the first 100-days among children who received myeloablative HCT from either a matched related donor (MRD, N = 27), matched unrelated donor (MUD, N = 28) or unrelated umbilical cord blood (UCB, N = 91). We also conducted analyses to describe predictors of higher costs of transplantation. The 100-day probabilities of overall survival were 96%, 96% and 87% for MRD, MUD and UCB, respectively. The mean cost per day survived (excluding costs of graft acquisition) was $3,446 (standard deviation (SD), $851) for MRD, $4,050 (SD, $1,194) for MUD and $4,522 (SD, $2,053) for UCB recipients. The costs of MUD and UCB HCT remained similar when costs of graft acquisition were considered within total costs of transplantation. In multivariable analysis, adjusting for important patient, disease, and transplant related characteristics, factors associated with higher costs within the first 100-days were HCT using MUD or UCB, Lansky score <90 at transplant, graft failure, need for dialysis, need for mechanical ventilation and occurrence of hepatic veno-occlusive disease. Within the first 100-days, the costs of MUD and UCB HCT are similar, while MRD HCT is less costly. These costs are primarily driven by severe post-transplant complications and graft failure. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Managing Fault Management Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDougal, John M.

2010-01-01

As the complexity of space missions grows, development of Fault Management (FM) capabilities is an increasingly common driver for significant cost overruns late in the development cycle. FM issues and the resulting cost overruns are rarely caused by a lack of technology, but rather by a lack of planning and emphasis by project management. A recent NASA FM Workshop brought together FM practitioners from a broad spectrum of institutions, mission types, and functional roles to identify the drivers underlying FM overruns and recommend solutions. They identified a number of areas in which increased program and project management focus can be used to control FM development cost growth. These include up-front planning for FM as a distinct engineering discipline; managing different, conflicting, and changing institutional goals and risk postures; ensuring the necessary resources for a disciplined, coordinated approach to end-to-end fault management engineering; and monitoring FM coordination across all mission systems.

Space and Atmospheric Environments: From Low Earth Orbits to Deep Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2003-01-01

Natural space and atmospheric environments pose a difficult challenge for designers of technological systems in space. The deleterious effects of environment interactions with the systems include degradation of materials, thermal changes, contamination, excitation, spacecraft glow, charging, radiation damage, and induced background interference. Design accommodations must be realistic with minimum impact on performance while maintaining a balance between cost and risk. The goal of applied research in space environments and effects is to limit environmental impacts at low cost relative to spacecraft cost and to infuse enabling and commercial off-the-shelf technologies into space programs. The need to perform applied research to understand the space environment in a practical sense and to develop methods to mitigate these environment effects is frequently underestimated by space agencies and industry. Applied science research in this area is critical because the complexity of spacecraft systems is increasing, and they are exposed simultaneously to a multitude of space environments.

A clinical economics workstation for risk-adjusted health care cost management.

PubMed Central

Eisenstein, E. L.; Hales, J. W.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a healthcare cost accounting system which is under development at Duke University Medical Center. Our approach differs from current practice in that this system will dynamically adjust its resource usage estimates to compensate for variations in patient risk levels. This adjustment is made possible by introducing a new cost accounting concept, Risk-Adjusted Quantity (RQ). RQ divides case-level resource usage variances into their risk-based component (resource consumption differences attributable to differences in patient risk levels) and their non-risk-based component (resource consumption differences which cannot be attributed to differences in patient risk levels). Because patient risk level is a factor in estimating resource usage, this system is able to simultaneously address the financial and quality dimensions of case cost management. In effect, cost-effectiveness analysis is incorporated into health care cost management. PMID:8563361

Exploring the cost-utility of stratified primary care management for low back pain compared with current best practice within risk-defined subgroups.

PubMed

Whitehurst, David G T; Bryan, Stirling; Lewis, Martyn; Hill, Jonathan; Hay, Elaine M

2012-11-01

Stratified management for low back pain according to patients' prognosis and matched care pathways has been shown to be an effective treatment approach in primary care. The aim of this within-trial study was to determine the economic implications of providing such an intervention, compared with non-stratified current best practice, within specific risk-defined subgroups (low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk). Within a cost-utility framework, the base-case analysis estimated the incremental healthcare cost per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY), using the EQ-5D to generate QALYs, for each risk-defined subgroup. Uncertainty was explored with cost-utility planes and acceptability curves. Sensitivity analyses were performed to consider alternative costing methodologies, including the assessment of societal loss relating to work absence and the incorporation of generic (ie, non-back pain) healthcare utilisation. The stratified management approach was a cost-effective treatment strategy compared with current best practice within each risk-defined subgroup, exhibiting dominance (greater benefit and lower costs) for medium-risk patients and acceptable incremental cost to utility ratios for low-risk and high-risk patients. The likelihood that stratified care provides a cost-effective use of resources exceeds 90% at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £4000 (≈ 4500; $6500) per additional QALY for the medium-risk and high-risk groups. Patients receiving stratified care also reported fewer back pain-related days off work in all three subgroups. Compared with current best practice, stratified primary care management for low back pain provides a highly cost-effective use of resources across all risk-defined subgroups.

Health benefits, risks, and cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination of children.

PubMed

Prosser, Lisa A; Bridges, Carolyn Buxton; Uyeki, Timothy M; Hinrichsen, Virginia L; Meltzer, Martin I; Molinari, Noelle-Angelique M; Schwartz, Benjamin; Thompson, William W; Fukuda, Keiji; Lieu, Tracy A

2006-10-01

We estimated cost-effectiveness of annually vaccinating children not at high risk with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) to range from US $12,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved for children ages 6-23 months to $119,000 per QALY saved for children ages 12-17 years. For children at high risk (preexisting medical conditions) ages 6-35 months, vaccination with IIV was cost saving. For children at high risk ages 3-17 years, vaccination cost $1,000-$10,000 per QALY. Among children notat high risk ages 5-17 years, live, attenuated influenza vaccine had a similar cost-effectiveness as IIV. Risk status was more important than age in determining the economic effects of annual vaccination, and vaccination was less cost-effective as the child's age increased. Thus, routine vaccination of all children is likely less cost-effective than vaccination of all children ages 6-23 months plus all other children at high risk.

Risk Costs for New Dams: Economic Analysis and Effects of Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paté-Cornell, M. Elisabeth; Tagaras, George

1986-01-01

This paper presents new developments and illustrations of the introduction of risk and costs in cost-benefit analysis for new dams. The emphasis is on a method of evaluation of the risk costs based on the structure of the local economy. Costs to agricultural property as well as residential, commercial, industrial, and public property are studied in detail. Of particular interest is the case of sequential dam failure and the evaluation of the risk costs attributable to a new dam upstream from an existing one. Three real cases are presented as illustrations of the method: the Auburn Dam, the Dickey-Lincoln School Project, and the Teton Dam, which failed in 1976. This last case provides a calibration tool for the estimation of loss ratios. For these three projects, the risk-modified benefit-cost ratios are computed to assess the effect of the risk on the economic performance of the project. The role of a warning system provided by systematic monitoring of the dam is analyzed: by reducing the risk costs, the warning system attenuates their effect on the benefit-cost ratio. The precursors, however, can be missed or misinterpreted: monitoring does not guarantee that the risks to human life can be reduced to zero. This study shows, in particular, that it is critical to consider the risk costs in the decision to build a new dam when the flood area is large and densely populated.

Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in clinically depressed adolescents: individual CBT versus treatment as usual (TAU).

PubMed

Stikkelbroek, Yvonne; Bodden, Denise Hm; Deković, Maja; van Baar, Anneloes L

2013-11-21

Depressive disorders occur in 2 to 5% of the adolescents and are associated with a high burden of disease, a high risk of recurrence and a heightened risk for development of other problems, like suicide attempts. The effectiveness of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT), cost-effectiveness of this treatment and the costs of illness of clinical depression in adolescents are still unclear. Although several Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) have been conducted to establish the efficacy of CBT, the effectiveness has not been established yet. Aim of this study is to conduct a RCT to test the effectiveness of CBT and to establish the cost-effectiveness of CBT under rigorous conditions within routine care provided by professionals already working in mental health institutions. CBT is investigated with a multi-site, RCT using block randomisation. The targeted population is 140 clinically referred depressed adolescents aged 12 to 21 years old. Adolescents are randomly assigned to the experimental (N = 70, CBT) or control condition (N = 70, TAU). Four assessments (pre, post, follow up at 6 and 12 months) and two mediator assessments during treatment are conducted. Primary outcome measure is depression diagnosis based on a semi-structured interview namely the K-SADS-PL. Secondary outcome measures include depressive symptoms, severity and improvement of the depression, global functioning, quality of life, suicide risk, comorbidity, alcohol and drug use, parental depression and psychopathology, parenting and conflicts. Costs and treatment characteristics will also be assessed. Furthermore, moderator and mediator analyses will be conducted. This trial will be the first to compare CBT with TAU under rigorous conditions within routine care and with a complex sample. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness of treatment and cost-of-illness of clinical depression are established which will provide new insights on depression as a disorder and its treatment. Dutch Trial register number NTR2676. The study was financially supported by a grant from ZonMw, the Netherlands organization for health research and development, grant number 157004005.

Assessment and model guided cancer screening promotion by village doctors in China: a randomized controlled trial protocol.

PubMed

Feng, Rui; Shen, Xingrong; Chai, Jing; Chen, Penglai; Cheng, Jing; Liang, Han; Zhao, Ting; Sha, Rui; Li, Kaichun; Wang, Debin

2015-10-12

Proven cost-effectiveness contrasted by low uptake of cancer screening (CS) calls for new methodologies promoting the service. Contemporary interventions in this regard relies primarily on strategies targeting general or specific groups with limited attention being paid to individualized approaches. This trial tests a novel package promoting CS utilization via continuous and tailored counseling delivered by primary caregivers. It aims at demonstrating that high risk individuals in the intervention arm will, compared to those in the delayed intervention condition, show increased use of CS service. The trial adopts a quasi-randomized controlled trial design and involves 2160 high risk individuals selected, via rapid and detailed risk assessments, from about 72,000 farmers aged 35+ in 36 administrative villages randomized into equal intervention and delayed intervention arms. The CS intervention package uses: a) village doctors and village clinics to deliver personalized and thus relatively sophisticated CS counseling; b) two-stage risk assessment models in identifying high risk individuals to focus the intervention on the most needed; c) standardized operation procedures to guide conduct of counseling; d) real-time effectiveness and quality monitoring to leverage continuous improvement; e) web-based electronic system to enable prioritizing complex determinants of CS uptake and tailoring counseling sessions to the changing needs of individual farmers. The intervention arm receives baseline and semiannual follow up evaluations plus CS counseling for 5 years; while the delayed intervention arm, only the same baseline and follow-up evaluations for the first 5 years and CS counseling starting from the 6th year if the intervention proved effective. Evaluation measures include: CS uptake by high risk farmers and changes in their knowledge, perceptions and self-efficacy about CS. Given the complexity and heterogeneity in the determinant system of individual CS service seeking behavior, personalized interventions may prove to be an effective strategy. The current trial distinguishes itself from previous ones in that it not only adopts a personalized strategy but also introduces a package of pragmatic solutions based on proven theories for tackling potential barriers and incorporating key success factors in a synergetic way toward low cost, effective and sustainable CS promotion. ISRCTN33269053.

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

2014-01-01

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

Clinical implications of fixed-dose coformulations of antiretrovirals on the outcome of HIV-1 therapy.

PubMed

Llibre, Josep M; Arribas, José R; Domingo, Pere; Gatell, Josep M; Lozano, Fernando; Santos, José R; Rivero, Antonio; Moreno, Santiago; Clotet, Bonaventura

2011-09-10

The substitution by generic equivalents of some of the drugs included in fixed-dose antiretroviral coformulations (FDACs) poses the potential risk of disrupting these combinations and administering the components separately in order to incorporate the new generic drug, which offers a more competitive sales price. This may represent a step backwards in the advances achieved in simplicity and adherence to therapy, posing an increased risk of selective noncompliance of some of the separately administered drug substances. Available antiretroviral drugs must be administered for life in the affected individuals - both children and adults. The FDACs represent a significant advance in the simplification of antiretroviral therapy, facilitating adherence to complex and chronic treatments, and contributing to a quantifiable improvement in patient quality of life. These drug coformulations reduce the risk of treatment error, are associated with a lower risk of hospitalization, and can lessen the possibility of covert monotherapy in situations of selective noncompliance. Thus, FDACs can reduce the risk of selection of HIV-1 resistances, which not only adversely affect the treatment options of the individual patient but also constitute a public health problem, and further increase the cost and complexity of therapy. With the exception of those cases requiring dose adjustments, the preferential use of FDACs should be recommended for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in those situations when the agents included in the coformulation are drugs of choice.

Wireless Sensor Network Security Enhancement Using Directional Antennas: State of the Art and Research Challenges

PubMed Central

Curiac, Daniel-Ioan

2016-01-01

Being often deployed in remote or hostile environments, wireless sensor networks are vulnerable to various types of security attacks. A possible solution to reduce the security risks is to use directional antennas instead of omnidirectional ones or in conjunction with them. Due to their increased complexity, higher costs and larger sizes, directional antennas are not traditionally used in wireless sensor networks, but recent technology trends may support this method. This paper surveys existing state of the art approaches in the field, offering a broad perspective of the future use of directional antennas in mitigating security risks, together with new challenges and open research issues. PMID:27070601

Economic costs of protistan and metazoan parasites to global mariculture.

PubMed

Shinn, A P; Pratoomyot, J; Bron, J E; Paladini, G; Brooker, E E; Brooker, A J

2015-01-01

Parasites have a major impact on global finfish and shellfish aquaculture, having significant effects on farm production, sustainability and economic viability. Parasite infections and impacts can, according to pathogen and context, be considered to be either unpredictable/sporadic or predictable/regular. Although both types of infection may result in the loss of stock and incur costs associated with the control and management of infection, predictable infections can also lead to costs associated with prophylaxis and related activities. The estimation of the economic cost of a parasite event is frequently complicated by the complex interplay of numerous factors associated with a specific incident, which may range from direct production losses to downstream socio-economic impacts on livelihoods and satellite industries associated with the primary producer. In this study, we examine the world's major marine and brackish water aquaculture production industries and provide estimates of the potential economic costs attributable to a range of key parasite pathogens using 498 specific events for the purposes of illustration and estimation of costs. This study provides a baseline resource for risk assessment and the development of more robust biosecurity practices, which can in turn help mitigate against and/or minimise the potential impacts of parasite-mediated disease in aquaculture.

Applying Formal Methods to NASA Projects: Transition from Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Othon, Bill

2009-01-01

NASA project managers attempt to manage risk by relying on mature, well-understood process and technology when designing spacecraft. In the case of crewed systems, the margin for error is even tighter and leads to risk aversion. But as we look to future missions to the Moon and Mars, the complexity of the systems will increase as the spacecraft and crew work together with less reliance on Earth-based support. NASA will be forced to look for new ways to do business. Formal methods technologies can help NASA develop complex but cost effective spacecraft in many domains, including requirements and design, software development and inspection, and verification and validation of vehicle subsystems. To realize these gains, the technologies must be matured and field-tested so that they are proven when needed. During this discussion, current activities used to evaluate FM technologies for Orion spacecraft design will be reviewed. Also, suggestions will be made to demonstrate value to current designers, and mature the technology for eventual use in safety-critical NASA missions.

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact-probability matrix in terms of socio-economic dimension.

Risk as a social phenomenon.

PubMed

Jamison, Wesley V

2003-01-01

What do nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef have in common? The answer is multifaceted. They all share aspects of mass production and consumption, and therefore consumer confidence comes into play in evaluating each of the products' merits. They all produce some level of anxiety--be it in response to adverse media coverage, or the successes of adversarial interest groups in publicizing those products' weaknesses--among consumers who wonder what if any level of the product should be consumed. Finally, nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef all share risk; that is, the perceived and real detriments of producing and consuming those products. Whether or not the associated risks--from increased cancer to increased heart disease--are real is beside the point. When talking about risk, scientific education must deal with the perception of risk as much as its reality. Risk is a socially defined phenomenon, and as such, the successful scientists/communicator must understand the social evaluations of it. While many scientists take a rational view of risk evaluation and consumers often make rational decisions about technological and scientific risk based upon the costs and benefits of that technology, this approach is problematic for three reasons. First, the nature of modern risks has changed in that risk is complex, incomprehensible and uncontrollable to the average person. Second, the rational approach assumes that all costs and benefits of a technology, both real and potential, both current and future, can be known and therefore rationally evaluated. This is not the case. Third, evidence from Europe indicates that trust in information sources about risk has fallen, and thus classic scientific education campaigns that rely upon increasing public knowledge and acceptance of technological and scientific risk are problematic. Because of these factors we argue that effective scientific response must begin to understand the social components of risk if campaigns to shape public perception are to have any success. The report concludes that public perceptions concerning risk are driven more by social and moral debates than by scientific or economic debates (340 words).

Human spaceflight technology needs-a foundation for JSC's technology strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stecklein, J. M.

Human space exploration has always been heavily influenced by goals to achieve a specific mission on a specific schedule. This approach drove rapid technology development, the rapidity of which added risks and became a major driver for costs and cost uncertainty. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is now approaching the extension of human presence throughout the solar system by balancing a proactive yet less schedule-driven development of technology with opportunistic scheduling of missions as the needed technologies are realized. This approach should provide cost effective, low risk technology development that will enable efficient and effective manned spaceflight missions. As a first step, the NASA Human Spaceflight Architecture Team (HAT) has identified a suite of critical technologies needed to support future manned missions across a range of destinations, including in cis-lunar space, near earth asteroid visits, lunar exploration, Mars moons, and Mars exploration. The challenge now is to develop a strategy and plan for technology development that efficiently enables these missions over a reasonable time period, without increasing technology development costs unnecessarily due to schedule pressure, and subsequently mitigating development and mission risks. NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC), as the nation's primary center for human exploration, is addressing this challenge through an innovative approach in allocating Internal Research and Development funding to projects. The HAT Technology Needs (Tech Needs) Database has been developed to correlate across critical technologies and the NASA Office of Chief Technologist Technology Area Breakdown Structure (TABS). The TechNeeds Database illuminates that many critical technologies may support a single technical capability gap, that many HAT technology needs may map to a single TABS technology discipline, and that a single HAT technology need may map to multiple TABS technology disciplines. Th- TechNeeds Database greatly clarifies understanding of the complex relationships of critical technologies to mission and architecture element needs. Extensions to the core TechNeeds Database allow JSC to factor in and appropriately weight JSC core technology competencies, and considerations of commercialization potential and partnership potential. The inherent coupling among these, along with an appropriate importance weighting, has provided an initial prioritization for allocation of technology development research funding at JSc. The HAT Technology Needs Database, with a core of built-in reports, clarifies and communicates complex technology needs for cost effective human space exploration so that an organization seeking to assure that research prioritization supports human spaceflight of the future can be successful.

Human Spaceflight Technology Needs - A Foundation for JSC's Technology Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecklein, Jonette M.

2013-01-01

Human space exploration has always been heavily influenced by goals to achieve a specific mission on a specific schedule. This approach drove rapid technology development, the rapidity of which adds risks as well as provides a major driver for costs and cost uncertainty. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is now approaching the extension of human presence throughout the solar system by balancing a proactive yet less schedule-driven development of technology with opportunistic scheduling of missions as the needed technologies are realized. This approach should provide cost effective, low risk technology development that will enable efficient and effective manned spaceflight missions. As a first step, the NASA Human Spaceflight Architecture Team (HAT) has identified a suite of critical technologies needed to support future manned missions across a range of destinations, including in cis-lunar space, near earth asteroid visits, lunar exploration, Mars moons, and Mars exploration. The challenge now is to develop a strategy and plan for technology development that efficiently enables these missions over a reasonable time period, without increasing technology development costs unnecessarily due to schedule pressure, and subsequently mitigating development and mission risks. NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC), as the nation s primary center for human exploration, is addressing this challenge through an innovative approach in allocating Internal Research and Development funding to projects. The HAT Technology Needs (TechNeeds) Database has been developed to correlate across critical technologies and the NASA Office of Chief Technologist Technology Area Breakdown Structure (TABS). The TechNeeds Database illuminates that many critical technologies may support a single technical capability gap, that many HAT technology needs may map to a single TABS technology discipline, and that a single HAT technology need may map to multiple TABS technology disciplines. The TechNeeds Database greatly clarifies understanding of the complex relationships of critical technologies to mission and architecture element needs. Extensions to the core TechNeeds Database allow JSC to factor in and appropriately weight JSC Center Core Technology Competencies, and considerations of Commercialization Potential and Partnership Potential. The inherent coupling among these, along with an appropriate importance weighting, has provided an initial prioritization for allocation of technology development research funding for JSC. The HAT Technology Needs Database, with a core of built-in reports, clarifies and communicates complex technology needs for cost effective human space exploration such that an organization seeking to assure that research prioritization supports human spaceflight of the future can be successful.

RISK CORRIDORS AND REINSURANCE IN HEALTH INSURANCE MARKETPLACES

PubMed Central

LAYTON, TIMOTHY J.; MCGUIRE, THOMAS G.; SINAIKO, ANNA D.

2016-01-01

Health Insurance Marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act implement reinsurance and risk corridors. Reinsurance limits insurer costs associated with specific individuals, while risk corridors protect against aggregate losses. Both tighten the insurer’s distribution of expected costs. This paper compares the economic costs and consequences of reinsurance and risk corridors. We simulate the insurer’s cost distribution under reinsurance and risk corridors using data for a group of individuals likely to enroll in Marketplace plans from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We compare reinsurance and risk corridors in terms of risk reduction and incentives for cost containment. We find that reinsurance and one-sided risk corridors achieve comparable levels of risk reduction for a given level of incentives. We also find that the policies being implemented in the Marketplaces (a mix of reinsurance and two-sided risk corridor policies) substantially limit insurer risk but perform similarly to a simpler stand-alone reinsurance policy. PMID:26973861

Using Full Genomic Information to Predict Disease: Breaking Down the Barriers Between Complex and Mendelian Diseases.

PubMed

Jordan, Daniel M; Do, Ron

2018-04-11

While sequence-based genetic tests have long been available for specific loci, especially for Mendelian disease, the rapidly falling costs of genome-wide genotyping arrays, whole-exome sequencing, and whole-genome sequencing are moving us toward a future where full genomic information might inform the prognosis and treatment of a variety of diseases, including complex disease. Similarly, the availability of large populations with full genomic information has enabled new insights about the etiology and genetic architecture of complex disease. Insights from the latest generation of genomic studies suggest that our categorization of diseases as complex may conceal a wide spectrum of genetic architectures and causal mechanisms that ranges from Mendelian forms of complex disease to complex regulatory structures underlying Mendelian disease. Here, we review these insights, along with advances in the prediction of disease risk and outcomes from full genomic information. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genomics and Human Genetics Volume 19 is August 31, 2018. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Therapies for treatment of osteoporosis in US women: cost-effectiveness and budget impact considerations.

PubMed

Tosteson, Anna N A; Burge, Russel T; Marshall, Deborah A; Lindsay, Robert

2008-09-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatments for women at high fracture risk and estimate the population-level impact of providing bisphosphonate therapy to all eligible high-risk US women. Fractures, healthcare costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated over 10 years using a Markov model. No therapy, risedronate, alendronate, ibandronate, and teriperatide (PTH) were compared among 4 risk groups. Sensitivity analyses examined the robustness of model results for 65-year-old women with low bone density and previous vertebral fracture. Women treated with a bisphosphonate experienced fewer fractures and more QALYs compared with no therapy or PTH. Total costs were lowest for the untreated cohort, followed by risedronate, alendronate, ibandronate, and PTH in all risk groups except women aged 75 years with previous fracture. The incremental cost-effectiveness of risedronate compared with no therapy ranged from cost saving for the base case to $66,722 per QALY for women aged 65 years with no previous fracture. Ibandronate and PTH were dominated in all risk groups. (A dominated treatment has a higher cost and poorer outcome.) Treating all eligible women with a bisphosphonate would cost an estimated additional $5563 million (21% total increase) and would result in 390,049 fewer fractures (35% decrease). In the highest risk group, the additional cost of therapy was offset by other healthcare cost savings. Osteoporosis treatment of high-risk women is cost-effective, with bisphosphonates providing the most benefit at lowest cost. For highest risk women, costs are offset by savings from fracture prevention.

Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and uncertainties. We followed the same approach for each term of risks i.e. hazard, vulnerability, element at risk, exposition. This risk approach can be achieved by a comprehensive use of several artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, which are done through, for example: (1) GIS techniques; (2) FR or T-PDF for qualitatively predicting risks for possible review results; and (3) A Multi-Criteria Evaluation for analyzing weak points. The main advantages of FR or T-PDF involve the ability to express not-fully-formalized knowledge, easy knowledge representation and acquisition, and self updatability. The results show that such an approach points out quite wide zone of uncertainty. REFERENCES Zadeh L.A. 1965 : Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8:338-353.

Rock breaking methods to replace blasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Huisheng; Xie, Xinghua; Feng, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The method of breaking rock by blasting has a high efficiency and the cost is relatively low, but the associated vibration, flyrock, production of toxic gases since the 1970’s, the Western developed countries began to study the safety of breaking rock. This paper introduces different methods and their progress to safely break rock. Ideally, safe rock breaking would have little vibration, no fly stone, and no toxic gases, which can be widely used in municipal engineering, road excavation, high-risk mining, quarrying and complex environment.

Implementation of DOP Replacement with Selected Materials in Mask and Filter Testing Penetrometer Machines.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

gene mutation procedures normally is done involving microbes or mammalian cells- most frequently it is the Ames assay which we have already completed...success- fully for the compound Emery 3004. Tier 2 assays for gene mutation utilize in vivo and host mediated tests which usually are considered in...compounds for more complex costly test procedures can be accomplished in this tier, but results should not be used to estimate risk to mammalian systems. Gene

Design definition study of a life/cruise fan technology V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2, addendum 2: Program risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The results are presented of a risk assessment study conducted on two technology aircraft. The aircraft system components were reviewed and assessed for risk based on: (1) complexity relative to state-of-the-art, (2) manufacturing and qualification testing, (3) availability and delays, and (4) cost/schedule impact. These assessments were based on five risk nomenclatures: low, minor, moderate, high, and extreme. Each aircraft system was assigned an overall risk rating depending upon its contribution to the capability of the aircraft to achieve the performance goals. The slightly lower Sabreliner performance margin is due to the restricted flight envelope, the fixed landing gear, and internal fuel capacity. The Sabreliner with retractable gear and allowed to fly at its best speed and altitude would reflect performance margins similar to the New Airframe. These significant margins, inherent with the MCAIR three gas generator/three fan propulsion system, are major modifiers to risk assessment of both aircraft. The estimated risk and the associated key system and performance areas are tabulated.

Teleradiology from the provider's perspective-cost analysis for a mid-size university hospital.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Christian; Kroos, Kristin; Rosenberg, Britta; Hosten, Norbert; Flessa, Steffen

2013-08-01

Real costs of teleradiology services have not been systematically calculated. Pricing policies are not evidence-based. This study aims to prove the feasibility of performing an original cost analysis for teleradiology services and show break-even points to perform cost-effective practice. Based on the teleradiology services provided by the Greifswald University Hospital in northeastern Germany, a detailed process analysis and an activity-based costing model revealed costs per service unit according to eight examination categories. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the cost amplitude and identify pricing thresholds. Twenty-two sub-processes and four staff categories were identified. The average working time for one unit was 55 (x-ray) to 72 min (whole-body CT). Personnel costs were dominant (up to 68 %), representing lower limit costs. The Monte Carlo method showed the cost distribution per category according to the deficiency risk. Avoiding deficient pricing by a likelihood of 90 % increased the cost of a cranial CT almost twofold as compared with the lower limit cost. Original cost analysis is possible when providing teleradiology services with complex statutory requirements in place. Methodology and results provide useful data to help enhance efficiency in hospital management as well as implement realistic reimbursement fees. • Analysis of original costs of teleradiology is possible for a providing hospital • Results discriminate pricing thresholds and lower limit costs to perform cost-effective practice • The study methods represent a managing tool to enhance efficiency in providing facilities • The data are useful to help represent telemedicine services in regular medical fee schedules.

Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield.

PubMed

Slovic, P

1999-08-01

Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase the legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.

Multicomponent targeted intervention to prevent delirium in hospitalized older patients: what is the economic value?

PubMed

Rizzo, J A; Bogardus , S T; Leo-Summers, L; Williams, C S; Acampora, D; Inouye, S K

2001-07-01

Delirium, or acute confusional state, is a common and serious occurrence among hospitalized older persons. Current estimates suggest that delirium complicates hospital stays for more than 2.3 million older persons each year, involving more than 17.5 million hospital days and accounting for more than $4 billion (1994 dollars) of Medicare expenditures. A 40% reduction was recently reported in the risk for delirium among hospitalized older persons receiving a multicomponent targeted risk factor intervention (MTI) strategy to prevent delirium, compared with subjects receiving usual hospital care.1 Before recommending that this preventive strategy be implemented in clinical practice, however, the cost implications must be thoroughly examined as well. The present analysis performs net cost evaluations of the MTI for the prevention of delirium among hospitalized patients. Hospital charge and cost-to-charge ratio data are linked to a database of 852 subjects, who were treated with MTI or usual care. Multivariable regression methods were used to help isolate the impact of MTI on hospital costs. These results were then combined with our earlier work on the impact of the MTI on delirium prevention to assess the cost effectiveness of this intervention. The MTI significantly reduced nonintervention costs among subjects at intermediate risk for developing delirium, but not among subjects at high risk. When MTI intervention costs were included, MTI had no significant effect on overall health care costs in the intermediate risk cohort, but raised overall costs in the high risk group. Because the MTI prevented delirium in the intermediate risk group without raising costs, the conclusion reached is that it is a cost effective treatment option for patients at intermediate risk for developing delirium. In contrast, the results suggest that the MTI is not cost effective for subjects at high risk.

Epidemiology of venous thromboembolism

PubMed Central

Heit, John A.

2015-01-01

Thrombosis can affect any venous circulation. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) includes deep-vein thrombosis of the leg or pelvis, and its complication, pulmonary embolism. VTE is a fairly common disease, particularly in older age, and is associated with reduced survival, substantial health-care costs, and a high rate of recurrence. VTE is a complex (multifactorial) disease, involving interactions between acquired or inherited predispositions to thrombosis and various risk factors. Major risk factors for incident VTE include hospitalization for surgery or acute illness, active cancer, neurological disease with leg paresis, nursing-home confinement, trauma or fracture, superficial vein thrombosis, and—in women—pregnancy and puerperium, oral contraception, and hormone therapy. Although independent risk factors for incident VTE and predictors of VTE recurrence have been identified, and effective primary and secondary prophylaxis is available, the occurrence of VTE seems to be fairly constant, or even increasing. PMID:26076949

Epidemiology of venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Heit, John A

2015-08-01

Thrombosis can affect any venous circulation. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) includes deep-vein thrombosis of the leg or pelvis, and its complication, pulmonary embolism. VTE is a fairly common disease, particularly in older age, and is associated with reduced survival, substantial health-care costs, and a high rate of recurrence. VTE is a complex (multifactorial) disease, involving interactions between acquired or inherited predispositions to thrombosis and various risk factors. Major risk factors for incident VTE include hospitalization for surgery or acute illness, active cancer, neurological disease with leg paresis, nursing-home confinement, trauma or fracture, superficial vein thrombosis, and-in women-pregnancy and puerperium, oral contraception, and hormone therapy. Although independent risk factors for incident VTE and predictors of VTE recurrence have been identified, and effective primary and secondary prophylaxis is available, the occurrence of VTE seems to be fairly constant, or even increasing.

Non-invasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) for single gene disorders: cost analysis of NIPD and invasive testing pathways.

PubMed

Verhoef, Talitha I; Hill, Melissa; Drury, Suzanne; Mason, Sarah; Jenkins, Lucy; Morris, Stephen; Chitty, Lyn S

2016-07-01

Evaluate the costs of offering non-invasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) for single gene disorders compared to traditional invasive testing to inform NIPD implementation into clinical practice. Total costs of diagnosis using NIPD or invasive testing pathways were compared for a representative set of single gene disorders. For autosomal dominant conditions, where NIPD molecular techniques are straightforward, NIPD cost £314 less than invasive testing. NIPD for autosomal recessive and X-linked conditions requires more complicated technical approaches and total costs were more than invasive testing, e.g. NIPD for spinal muscular atrophy was £1090 more than invasive testing. Impact of test uptake on costs was assessed using sickle cell disorder as an example. Anticipated high uptake of NIPD resulted in an incremental cost of NIPD over invasive testing of £48 635 per 100 pregnancies at risk of sickle cell disorder. Total costs of NIPD are dependent upon the complexity of the testing technique required. Anticipated increased demand for testing may have economic implications for prenatal diagnostic services. Ethical issues requiring further consideration are highlighted including directing resources to NIPD when used for information only and restricting access to safe tests if it is not cost-effective to develop NIPD for rare conditions. © 2016 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Validated Feasibility Study of Integrally Stiffened Metallic Fuselage Panels for Reducing Manufacturing Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pettit, R. G.; Wang, J. J.; Toh, C.

2000-01-01

The continual need to reduce airframe cost and the emergence of high speed machining and other manufacturing technologies has brought about a renewed interest in large-scale integral structures for aircraft applications. Applications have been inhibited, however, because of the need to demonstrate damage tolerance, and by cost and manufacturing risks associated with the size and complexity of the parts. The Integral Airframe Structures (IAS) Program identified a feasible integrally stiffened fuselage concept and evaluated performance and manufacturing cost compared to conventional designs. An integral skin/stiffener concept was produced both by plate hog-out and near-net extrusion. Alloys evaluated included 7050-T7451 plate, 7050-T74511 extrusion, 6013-T6511 extrusion, and 7475-T7351 plate. Mechanical properties, structural details, and joint performance were evaluated as well as repair, static compression, and two-bay crack residual strength panels. Crack turning behavior was characterized through panel tests and improved methods for predicting crack turning were developed. Manufacturing cost was evaluated using COSTRAN. A hybrid design, made from high-speed machined extruded frames that are mechanically fastened to high-speed machined plate skin/stringer panels, was identified as the most cost-effective manufacturing solution. Recurring labor and material costs of the hybrid design are up to 61 percent less than the current technology baseline.

What impact will EPPO's new resistance risk assessment guideline have on selection pressure in the European Union?

PubMed

Leonard, Paul K; Dutton, Robert

2002-09-01

This paper examines practical and regulatory implications, including both costs and benefits, resulting from implementation of EPPO's new resistance risk analysis guideline. Crop-protection companies operating in Europe are preparing risk analyses and management strategies, and are monitoring for resistance. However, this is a complex and expensive process involving technical, commercial and regulatory functions. The actual cost of filling these data gaps is consequently greater than many would have anticipated. The agrochemical industry has a vested interest in managing resistance and is committed to maintaining the essential contribution of crop-protection products to sustainable agriculture. However, with increasing regulatory costs, it is important that regulatory authorities concentrate requirements for resistance risk analyses, management strategies and monitoring where these are most needed. Should these requirements be applied indiscriminately, crop-protection companies will have to consider whether or not it is economically justifiable to make these investments, or whether to remove less profitable uses from product labels. In such situations, minor crops stand to be disproportionately effected. One year after publication, it is too early to measure the guideline's impact on selection pressure. It is already clear that the guideline represents an unprecedented step forward in the regulation and harmonisation of resistance management. There are, however, valid arguments against regulation of resistance management. One of the most important criticisms that is levelled against the latter approach is that, with the best motivation and with appropriate use restrictions on labels, these actions alone do not solve the problem. It is critical that all stakeholders in the crop protection process are made aware of the importance of resistance management and of complying with prescribed strategies.

Dual task cost of walking is related to fall risk in persons with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Wajda, Douglas A; Motl, Robert W; Sosnoff, Jacob J

2013-12-15

Persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) commonly have walking and cognitive impairments. While walking with a simultaneous cognitive task, persons with MS experience a greater decline in walking performance than healthy controls. This change in performance is termed dual task cost or dual task interference and has been associated with fall risk in older adults. We examined whether dual task cost during walking was related to fall risk in persons with MS. Thirty-three ambulatory persons with MS performed walking tasks with and without a concurrent cognitive task (dual task condition) as well as underwent a fall risk assessment. Dual task cost was operationalized as the percent change in velocity from normal walking conditions to dual task walking conditions. Fall risk was quantified using the Physiological Profile Assessment. A Spearman correlation analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between dual task cost of walking velocity and fall risk as well as dual task cost of stride length and fall risk. Overall, the findings indicate that dual task cost is associated with fall risk and may be an important target for falls prevention strategies. © 2013.

Impact of antibiotic restrictions: the ethical perspective.

PubMed

Garau, J

2006-08-01

Antibiotic restrictions present difficult choices for physicians, patients and payors. Physicians must choose between the welfare of the patient and the directive of healthcare systems to restrict antibiotics. These may be supported with incentives or penalties, causing a conflict of interest. The patient has an expectation of best care, but will often be unaware of antibiotic restriction policies and is therefore not fully informed about his/her treatment. For payors, reducing the volume of antibiotic prescribing and/or prescribing less expensive antibiotics are apparently attractive targets for cost savings. However, we are only now beginning to understand the downstream consequences of restricting antibiotics on outcomes and costs. We are hampered by the lack of a universal ethical framework and information on outcomes. In addition, the concept of 'effective' or 'best' therapy will vary among different groups. Balancing the risks of treating or not treating with antibiotics is complex. Suboptimal therapy, that fails to eradicate the bacterial infection, exposes the patient to the risk of poor outcome, adverse events and the wider risk of antimicrobial resistance. Failure to treat where the risk of a poor outcome exceeds the risk of an adverse event is also ethically unacceptable. The key to rational antibiotic prescribing is to identify those patients who need antibiotic therapy and optimise therapy to achieve the fastest bacterial and clinical cure. We are only now beginning to assemble the information and tools to be able to make such decisions. Above all, we should treat on the basis of knowledge.

JPL Innovation Foundry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherwood, Brent; McCleese, Daniel

2012-01-01

Space science missions are increasingly challenged today: in ambition, by increasingly sophisticated hypotheses tested; in development, by the increasing complexity of advanced technologies; in budgeting, by the decline of flagship-class mission opportunities; in management, by expectations for breakthrough science despite a risk-averse programmatic climate; and in planning, by increasing competition for scarce resources. How are the space-science missions of tomorrow being formulated? The paper describes the JPL Innovation Foundry, created in 2011, to respond to this evolving context. The Foundry integrates methods, tools, and experts that span the mission concept lifecycle. Grounded in JPL's heritage of missions, flight instruments, mission proposals, and concept innovation, the Foundry seeks to provide continuity of support and cost-effective, on-call access to the right domain experts at the right time, as science definition teams and Principal Investigators mature mission ideas from "cocktail napkin" to PDR. The Foundry blends JPL capabilities in proposal development and concurrent engineering, including Team X, with new approaches for open-ended concept exploration in earlier, cost-constrained phases, and with ongoing research and technology projects. It applies complexity and cost models, projectformulation lessons learned, and strategy analyses appropriate to each level of concept maturity. The Foundry is organizationally integrated with JPL formulation program offices; staffed by JPL's line organizations for engineering, science, and costing; and overseen by senior Laboratory leaders to assure experienced coordination and review. Incubation of each concept is tailored depending on its maturity and proposal history, and its highest leverage modeling and analysis needs.

Report to Congress on the U.S. Department of Energy`s Environmental Management Science Program: Research funded and its linkages to environmental cleanup problems, and Environmental Management Science Program research award abstracts. Volume 2 of 3 -- Appendix B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The Department of Energy`s Environmental Management Science Program (EMSP) serves as a catalyst for the application of scientific discoveries to the development and deployment of technologies that will lead to reduction of the costs and risks associated with cleaning up the nation`s nuclear complex. Appendix B provides details about each of the 202 research awards funded by the EMSP. This information may prove useful to researchers who are attempting to address the Department`s environmental management challenges in their work, program managers who are planning, integrating, and prioritizing Environmental Management projects, and stakeholders and regulators who are interested in the Department`smore » environmental challenges. The research award information is organized by the state and institution in which the lead principal investigator is located. In many cases, the lead principal investigator is one of several investigators at a number of different institutions. In these cases, the lead investigator (major collaborator) at each of the additional institutions is listed. Each research award abstract is followed by a list of high cost projects that can potentially be impacted by the research results. High cost projects are Environmental Management projects that have total costs greater than $50 million from the year 2007 and beyond, based on the March 1998 Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure Draft data, and have costs or quantities of material associated with an Environmental Management problem area. High cost projects which must remain active in the year 2007 and beyond to manage high risk are also identified. Descriptions of these potentially related high cost Environmental Management projects can be found in Appendix C. Additional projects in the same problem area as a research award can be located using the Index of High Cost Environmental Management Projects by Problem Area, at the end of Appendices B and C.« less

Pediatric Specialty Care Model for Management of Chronic Respiratory Failure: Cost and Savings Implications and Misalignment With Payment Models.

PubMed

Graham, Robert J; McManus, Michael L; Rodday, Angie Mae; Weidner, Ruth Ann; Parsons, Susan K

2018-05-01

To describe program design, costs, and savings implications of a critical care-based care coordination model for medically complex children with chronic respiratory failure. All program activities and resultant clinical outcomes were tracked over 4 years using an adapted version of the Care Coordination Measurement Tool. Patient characteristics, program activity, and acute care resource utilization were prospectively documented in the adapted version of the Care Coordination Measurement Tool and retrospectively cross-validated with hospital billing data. Impact on total costs of care was then estimated based on program outcomes and nationally representative administrative data. Tertiary children's hospital. Critical Care, Anesthesia, Perioperative Extension and Home Ventilation Program enrollees. None. The program provided care for 346 patients and families over the study period. Median age at enrollment was 6 years with more than half deriving secondary respiratory failure from a primary neuromuscular disease. There were 11,960 encounters over the study period, including 1,202 home visits, 673 clinic visits, and 4,970 telephone or telemedicine encounters. Half (n = 5,853) of all encounters involved a physician and 45% included at least one care coordination activity. Overall, we estimated that program interventions were responsible for averting 556 emergency department visits and 107 hospitalizations. Conservative monetization of these alone accounted for annual savings of $1.2-2 million or $407/pt/mo net of program costs. Innovative models, such as extension of critical care services, for high-risk, high-cost patients can result in immediate cost savings. Evaluation of financial implications of comprehensive care for high-risk patients is necessary to complement clinical and patient-centered outcomes for alternative care models. When year-to-year cost variability is high and cost persistence is low, these savings can be estimated from documentation within care coordination management tools. Means of financial sustainability, scalability, and equal access of such care models need to be established.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries.

PubMed

Massad, Eduardo; Behrens, Ben C; Coutinho, Francisco A B; Behrens, Ronald H

2011-05-17

In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used. Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Long-term healthcare use and costs in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a population-based cohort using linked health records (CALIBER)

PubMed Central

Walker, Simon; Asaria, Miqdad; Manca, Andrea; Palmer, Stephen; Gale, Chris P.; Shah, Anoop Dinesh; Abrams, Keith R.; Crowther, Michael; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry; Sculpher, Mark

2016-01-01

Abstract Aims To examine long-term healthcare utilization and costs of patients with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD). Methods and results Linked cohort study of 94 966 patients with SCAD in England, 1 January 2001 to 31 March 2010, identified from primary care, secondary care, disease, and death registries. Resource use and costs, and cost predictors by time and 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile were estimated using generalized linear models. Coronary heart disease hospitalizations were 20.5% in the first year and 66% in the year following a non-fatal (myocardial infarction, ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke) event. Mean healthcare costs were £3133 per patient in the first year and £10 377 in the year following a non-fatal event. First-year predictors of cost included sex (mean cost £549 lower in females), SCAD diagnosis (non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction cost £656 more than stable angina), and co-morbidities (heart failure cost £657 more per patient). Compared with lower risk patients (5-year CVD risk 3.5%), those of higher risk (5-year CVD risk 44.2%) had higher 5-year costs (£23 393 vs. £9335) and lower lifetime costs (£43 020 vs. £116 888). Conclusion Patients with SCAD incur substantial healthcare utilization and costs, which varies and may be predicted by 5-year CVD risk profile. Higher risk patients have higher initial but lower lifetime costs than lower risk patients as a result of shorter life expectancy. Improved cardiovascular survivorship among an ageing CVD population is likely to require stratified care in anticipation of the burgeoning demand. PMID:27042338

Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitfield, Jeff

1998-01-01

Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

1986-01-01

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

2017-10-16

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

Immunooncology: Can the Right Chimeric Antigen Receptors T-Cell Design Be Made to Cure All Types of Cancers and Will It Be Covered?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Immunooncology (IO) is the buzz word today and it has everyone doing IO research. If we look back at the history of cancer treatment, the survival rate was measured in months which, according to oncologists, was a lot back then because the mortality rate in most cancers was 100%. However, most traditional chemotherapies were not well tolerated because they would kill both cancerous and healthy cells, which lead to major side effects such as loss of hair, nausea and vomiting, and risk of infection. Survival was better but not much better depending on the type of cancer and the patient's own genetic and physiological make-up. IO therapies target specific receptors on the cancer cells. However, with more advance technologies, the cost to develop these types of therapies increases significantly because the biology is more complex and it is more difficult to produce. Find out why these therapies are more complex and therefore more expensive. But the enhanced efficacy of these therapies does justify the cost. PMID:28239502

Immunooncology: Can the Right Chimeric Antigen Receptors T-Cell Design Be Made to Cure All Types of Cancers and Will It Be Covered?

PubMed

Au, Regina

2017-01-01

Immunooncology (IO) is the buzz word today and it has everyone doing IO research. If we look back at the history of cancer treatment, the survival rate was measured in months which, according to oncologists, was a lot back then because the mortality rate in most cancers was 100%. However, most traditional chemotherapies were not well tolerated because they would kill both cancerous and healthy cells, which lead to major side effects such as loss of hair, nausea and vomiting, and risk of infection. Survival was better but not much better depending on the type of cancer and the patient's own genetic and physiological make-up. IO therapies target specific receptors on the cancer cells. However, with more advance technologies, the cost to develop these types of therapies increases significantly because the biology is more complex and it is more difficult to produce. Find out why these therapies are more complex and therefore more expensive. But the enhanced efficacy of these therapies does justify the cost.

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

The impact of weight gain or loss on health care costs for employees at the Johnson & Johnson Family of Companies.

PubMed

Carls, Ginger Smith; Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Bruno, Jennifer; Isaac, Fikry; McHugh, Janice

2011-01-01

To quantify the impact of weight gain or weight loss on health care costs. Employees completing at least two health risk assessments during 2002 to 2008 were classified as adding, losing, or staying at high/low risk for each of the nine health risks including overweight and obesity. Models for each risk were used to compare cost trends by controlling for employee characteristics. Employees who developed high risk for obesity (n = 405) experienced 9.9% points higher annual cost increases (95% confidence interval: 3.0%-16.8%) than those who remained at lower risk (n = 8015). Employees who moved from high to lower risk for obesity (n = 384), experienced annual cost increases that were 2.3% points lower (95% confidence interval: -7.4% to 2.8%) than those who remained high risk (n = 1699). Preventing weight gain through effective employee health promotion programs is likely to result in cost savings for employers.

Contemporary Costs Associated With Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Propensity-Matched Cost Analysis.

PubMed

Ailawadi, Gorav; LaPar, Damien J; Speir, Alan M; Ghanta, Ravi K; Yarboro, Leora T; Crosby, Ivan K; Lim, D Scott; Quader, Mohammed A; Rich, Jeffrey B

2016-01-01

The Placement of Aortic Transcatheter Valve (PARTNER) trial suggested an economic advantage for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for high-risk patients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of TAVR in the "real world" by comparing TAVR with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in intermediate-risk and high-risk patients. A multiinstitutional database of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) (2011 to 2013) linked with estimated cost data was evaluated for isolated TAVR and SAVR operations (n = 5,578). TAVR-treated patients (n = 340) were 1:1 propensity matched with SAVR-treated patients (n = 340). Patients undergoing SAVR were further stratified into intermediate-risk (SAVR-IR: predicted risk of mortality [PROM] 4% to 8%) and high-risk (SAVR-HR: PROM >8%) cohorts. Median STS PROM for TAVR was 6.32% compared with 6.30% for SAVR (SAVR-IR 4.6% and SAVR-HR 12.4%). A transfemoral TAVR approach was most common (61%). Mortality was higher for TAVR (10%) compared with SAVR (6%, p < 0.047), whereas the SAVR group accrued higher major morbidity (27% vs 14%, p < 0.001) and longer postoperative hospital duration (7 days vs 6 days, p < 0.001). Importantly, TAVR incurred twice the median total costs compared with SAVR ($69,921 vs $33,598, p < 0.001). The increased cost of TAVR was largely driven by the cost of the valve (all p < 0.001). Intermediate-risk patients undergoing SAVR demonstrated the most exaggerated cost savings versus TAVR. TAVR was associated with greater total costs and mortality compared with SAVR in intermediate-risk and high-risk patients while conferring lower major morbidity and improved resource use. Increased cost of TAVR appears largely related to the cost of the valve. Until the price of TAVR valves decreases, these data suggest that TAVR may not provide the most cost-effective strategy, particularly for intermediate-risk patients. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Absenteeism and Employer Costs Associated With Chronic Diseases and Health Risk Factors in the US Workforce.

PubMed

Asay, Garrett R Beeler; Roy, Kakoli; Lang, Jason E; Payne, Rebecca L; Howard, David H

2016-10-06

Employers may incur costs related to absenteeism among employees who have chronic diseases or unhealthy behaviors. We examined the association between employee absenteeism and 5 conditions: 3 risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity) and 2 chronic diseases (hypertension and diabetes). We identified 5 chronic diseases or risk factors from 2 data sources: MarketScan Health Risk Assessment and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Absenteeism was measured as the number of workdays missed because of sickness or injury. We used zero-inflated Poisson regression to estimate excess absenteeism as the difference in the number of days missed from work by those who reported having a risk factor or chronic disease and those who did not. Covariates included demographics (eg, age, education, sex) and employment variables (eg, industry, union membership). We quantified absenteeism costs in 2011 and adjusted them to reflect growth in employment costs to 2015 dollars. Finally, we estimated absenteeism costs for a hypothetical small employer (100 employees) and a hypothetical large employer (1,000 employees). Absenteeism estimates ranged from 1 to 2 days per individual per year depending on the risk factor or chronic disease. Except for the physical inactivity and obesity estimates, disease- and risk-factor-specific estimates were similar in MEPS and MarketScan. Absenteeism increased with the number of risk factors or diseases reported. Nationally, each risk factor or disease was associated with annual absenteeism costs greater than $2 billion. Absenteeism costs ranged from $16 to $81 (small employer) and $17 to $286 (large employer) per employee per year. Absenteeism costs associated with chronic diseases and health risk factors can be substantial. Employers may incur these costs through lower productivity, and employees could incur costs through lower wages.

Absenteeism and Employer Costs Associated With Chronic Diseases and Health Risk Factors in the US Workforce

PubMed Central

Roy, Kakoli; Lang, Jason E.; Payne, Rebecca L.; Howard, David H.

2016-01-01

Introduction Employers may incur costs related to absenteeism among employees who have chronic diseases or unhealthy behaviors. We examined the association between employee absenteeism and 5 conditions: 3 risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity) and 2 chronic diseases (hypertension and diabetes). Methods We identified 5 chronic diseases or risk factors from 2 data sources: MarketScan Health Risk Assessment and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Absenteeism was measured as the number of workdays missed because of sickness or injury. We used zero-inflated Poisson regression to estimate excess absenteeism as the difference in the number of days missed from work by those who reported having a risk factor or chronic disease and those who did not. Covariates included demographics (eg, age, education, sex) and employment variables (eg, industry, union membership). We quantified absenteeism costs in 2011 and adjusted them to reflect growth in employment costs to 2015 dollars. Finally, we estimated absenteeism costs for a hypothetical small employer (100 employees) and a hypothetical large employer (1,000 employees). Results Absenteeism estimates ranged from 1 to 2 days per individual per year depending on the risk factor or chronic disease. Except for the physical inactivity and obesity estimates, disease- and risk-factor–specific estimates were similar in MEPS and MarketScan. Absenteeism increased with the number of risk factors or diseases reported. Nationally, each risk factor or disease was associated with annual absenteeism costs greater than $2 billion. Absenteeism costs ranged from $16 to $81 (small employer) and $17 to $286 (large employer) per employee per year. Conclusion Absenteeism costs associated with chronic diseases and health risk factors can be substantial. Employers may incur these costs through lower productivity, and employees could incur costs through lower wages. PMID:27710764

Cost-effectiveness of risk-reducing surgeries in preventing hereditary breast and ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Schrauder, Michael G; Brunel-Geuder, Lisa; Häberle, Lothar; Wunderle, Marius; Hoyer, Juliane; Reis, André; Schulz-Wendtland, Rüdiger; Beckmann, Matthias W; Lux, Michael P

2017-04-01

Risk-reducing surgeries are a feasible option for mitigating the risk in individuals with inherited susceptibility to cancer, but are the procedures cost-effective in the current health-care system in Germany? This study compared the health-care costs for bilateral risk-reducing mastectomy (BRRM) and risk-reducing (bilateral) salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) with cancer treatment costs that could potentially be prevented. The analysis is based on interdisciplinary consultations with individuals with a high familial risk for breast and ovarian cancer at the University Breast Center for Franconia (Germany) between 2009 and 2013 (370 consultations; 44 patients with BRCA1 mutations and 26 with BRCA2 mutations). Health-care costs for risk-reducing surgeries in BRCA mutation carriers were calculated as reimbursements in the German diagnosis-related groups (DRG) hospital pricing system. These costs for the health-care system were compared with the potential cancer treatment costs that could possibly be prevented by risk-reducing surgeries. Long-term health-care costs can be reduced by risk-reducing surgeries after genetic testing in BRCA mutation carriers. The health-care system in Germany would have saved € 136,295 if BRRM had been performed and € 791,653 if RRSO had been performed before the development of cancer in only 50% of the 70 mutation carriers seen in our center. Moreover, in patients with combined RRSO and BRRM (without breast reconstruction), one further life-year for a 40-year-old BRCA mutation carrier would cost € 2,183. Intensive care, including risk-reducing surgeries in BRCA mutation carriers, is cost-effective from the point of view of the health-care system in Germany. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Molten-Salt Heat Transfer Fluid Technology for Parabolic Trough Solar Power Plants - Public Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grogan, Dylan C. P.

2013-08-15

Executive Summary This Final Report for the "Development of Molten-Salt Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF) Technology for Parabolic Trough Solar Power Plants” describes the overall project accomplishments, results and conclusions. Phase 1 analyzed the feasibility, cost and performance of a parabolic trough solar power plant with a molten salt heat transfer fluid (HTF); researched and/or developed feasible component options, detailed cost estimates and workable operating procedures; and developed hourly performance models. As a result, a molten salt plant with 6 hours of storage was shown to reduce Thermal Energy Storage (TES) cost by 43.2%, solar field cost by 14.8%, and levelizedmore » cost of energy (LCOE) by 9.8% - 14.5% relative to a similar state-of-the-art baseline plant. The LCOE savings range met the project’s Go/No Go criteria of 10% LCOE reduction. Another primary focus of Phase 1 and 2 was risk mitigation. The large risk areas associated with a molten salt parabolic trough plant were addressed in both Phases, such as; HTF freeze prevention and recovery, collector components and piping connections, and complex component interactions. Phase 2 analyzed in more detail the technical and economic feasibility of a 140 MWe,gross molten-salt CSP plant with 6 hours of TES. Phase 2 accomplishments included developing technical solutions to the above mentioned risk areas, such as freeze protection/recovery, corrosion effects of applicable molten salts, collector design improvements for molten salt, and developing plant operating strategies for maximized plant performance and freeze risk mitigation. Phase 2 accomplishments also included developing and thoroughly analyzing a molten salt, Parabolic Trough power plant performance model, in order to achieve the project cost and performance targets. The plant performance model and an extensive basic Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) quote were used to calculate a real levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 11.50¢/kWhe , which achieved the Phase 2 Go/No Go target of less than 0.12¢/kWhe. Abengoa Solar has high confidence that the primary risk areas have been addressed in the project and a commercial plant utilizing molten salt is economically and technically feasible. The strong results from the Phase 1 and 2 research, testing, and analyses, summarized in this report, led Abengoa Solar to recommend that the project proceed to Phase 3. However, a commercially viable collector interconnection was not fully validated by the end of Phase 2, combined with the uncertainty in the federal budget, forced the DOE and Abengoa Solar to close the project. Thus the resources required to construct and operate a molten salt pilot plant will be solely supplied by Abengoa Solar.« less

Hanford science and technology needs statements, 2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BERLIN, G.T.

In the aftermath of the Cold War, the United States has begun addressing the environmental consequences of five decades of nuclear weapons production. In November 1989, DOE established the Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) as the central authority for cleaning up the DOE weapons complex legacy of pollution, for preventing further environmental contamination, and for instituting responsible environmental management. While performing its tasks, EM found that many aspects of its large and complex mission could not be achieved using existing science and technology or without incurring unreasonable costs, risks, or schedule impacts. Consequently, a process was developedmore » to solicit needs from around the DOE complex and focus the science and technology resources of EM-50, the National Laboratories, private industry, and colleges and universities on those needs. This document describes those needs that the Hanford Site has identified as requiring additional science or technology to complete.« less

Hanford science and technology needs statements, 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berlin, G.T.

In the aftermath of the Cold War, the US has begun addressing the environmental consequences of five decades of nuclear weapons production. In November 1989, DOE established the Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) as the central authority for cleaning up the DOE weapons complex legacy of pollution, for preventing further environmental contamination, and for instituting responsible environmental management. While performing its tasks, EM found that many aspects of its large and complex decisions could not be achieved using existing science and technology or without incurring unreasonable costs, risks, or schedule impacts. Consequently, a process was developed tomore » solicit needs from around the DOE complex and focus the science and technology resources of EM-50, the National Laboratories, private industry, and collages and universities on those needs. This document describes those needs which the Hanford Site has identified as requiring additional science or technology to complete.« less

Cost analysis of gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponges in preventing sternal wound infection post cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Joshi, V; Vaja, R; Richens, D

2016-01-01

The use of antibiotic-impregnated sponges (Collatamp) during cardiac surgery is controversial. We analysed the cost-effectiveness of its selective use in patients at high-risk of sternal wound infection (SWI). Postoperative costs were analysed in two groups of patients undergoing heart surgery between 2011 and 2013: those with SWI (group 1) and in high-risk patients without SWI (group 2). The potential cost of gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponges (GCS) use in high-risk patients was compared with our current practice. We identified 1,251 patients with at least one recognised risk factor for developing SWI in this period. Of these, 18 developed SWI (incidence 1.4%). The median postoperative cost per patient without SWI was £9,617. The additional cost per patient incurred by SWI was £4,860.75. The annual additional cost for treating patients with SWI was £43,749. With a 50% reduction in SWI, the annual additional cost of treating these patients would be reduced to £21,873. The cost of GCS is £80 per patient. Adding this to £21,873 gives a potential total cost of £71,913 in the treated high-risk cohort. In our practice the annual cost of treating SWI in high-risk patients without use of GCS is lower than the annual cost of using GCS in all high-risk patients (£43,749 versus £71,913) if it produces a 50% reduction in SWI. The reduction in the incidence of SWI poses no economic benefit when the cost of the product is factored in.

A machine learning model to predict the risk of 30-day readmissions in patients with heart failure: a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records data.

PubMed

Golas, Sara Bersche; Shibahara, Takuma; Agboola, Stephen; Otaki, Hiroko; Sato, Jumpei; Nakae, Tatsuya; Hisamitsu, Toru; Kojima, Go; Felsted, Jennifer; Kakarmath, Sujay; Kvedar, Joseph; Jethwani, Kamal

2018-06-22

Heart failure is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in the United States. Advances in big data solutions allow for storage, management, and mining of large volumes of structured and semi-structured data, such as complex healthcare data. Applying these advances to complex healthcare data has led to the development of risk prediction models to help identify patients who would benefit most from disease management programs in an effort to reduce readmissions and healthcare cost, but the results of these efforts have been varied. The primary aim of this study was to develop a 30-day readmission risk prediction model for heart failure patients discharged from a hospital admission. We used longitudinal electronic medical record data of heart failure patients admitted within a large healthcare system. Feature vectors included structured demographic, utilization, and clinical data, as well as selected extracts of un-structured data from clinician-authored notes. The risk prediction model was developed using deep unified networks (DUNs), a new mesh-like network structure of deep learning designed to avoid over-fitting. The model was validated with 10-fold cross-validation and results compared to models based on logistic regression, gradient boosting, and maxout networks. Overall model performance was assessed using concordance statistic. We also selected a discrimination threshold based on maximum projected cost saving to the Partners Healthcare system. Data from 11,510 patients with 27,334 admissions and 6369 30-day readmissions were used to train the model. After data processing, the final model included 3512 variables. The DUNs model had the best performance after 10-fold cross-validation. AUCs for prediction models were 0.664 ± 0.015, 0.650 ± 0.011, 0.695 ± 0.016 and 0.705 ± 0.015 for logistic regression, gradient boosting, maxout networks, and DUNs respectively. The DUNs model had an accuracy of 76.4% at the classification threshold that corresponded with maximum cost saving to the hospital. Deep learning techniques performed better than other traditional techniques in developing this EMR-based prediction model for 30-day readmissions in heart failure patients. Such models can be used to identify heart failure patients with impending hospitalization, enabling care teams to target interventions at their most high-risk patients and improving overall clinical outcomes.

A utility/cost analysis of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbey, Craig K.; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Wunderlich, Adam; Samuelson, Frank W.; Boone, John M.

2016-03-01

Breast cancer risk prediction algorithms are used to identify subpopulations that are at increased risk for developing breast cancer. They can be based on many different sources of data such as demographics, relatives with cancer, gene expression, and various phenotypic features such as breast density. Women who are identified as high risk may undergo a more extensive (and expensive) screening process that includes MRI or ultrasound imaging in addition to the standard full-field digital mammography (FFDM) exam. Given that there are many ways that risk prediction may be accomplished, it is of interest to evaluate them in terms of expected cost, which includes the costs of diagnostic outcomes. In this work we perform an expected-cost analysis of risk prediction algorithms that is based on a published model that includes the costs associated with diagnostic outcomes (true-positive, false-positive, etc.). We assume the existence of a standard screening method and an enhanced screening method with higher scan cost, higher sensitivity, and lower specificity. We then assess expected cost of using a risk prediction algorithm to determine who gets the enhanced screening method under the strong assumption that risk and diagnostic performance are independent. We find that if risk prediction leads to a high enough positive predictive value, it will be cost-effective regardless of the size of the subpopulation. Furthermore, in terms of the hit-rate and false-alarm rate of the of the risk prediction algorithm, iso-cost contours are lines with slope determined by properties of the available diagnostic systems for screening.

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Measuring efficiency: the association of hospital costs and quality of care.

PubMed

Jha, Ashish K; Orav, E John; Dobson, Allen; Book, Robert A; Epstein, Arnold M

2009-01-01

Providers with lower costs may be more efficient and, therefore, provide better care than those with higher costs. However, the relationship between risk-adjusted costs (often described as efficiency) and quality is not well understood. We examined the relationship between hospitals' risk-adjusted costs and their structural characteristics, nursing levels, quality of care, and outcomes. U.S. hospitals with low risk-adjusted costs were more likely to be for-profit, treat more Medicare patients, and employ fewer nurses. They provided modestly worse care for acute myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure but had comparable rates of risk-adjusted mortality. We found no evidence that low-cost providers provide better care.

What is the most cost-effective strategy to screen for left ventricular systolic dysfunction: natriuretic peptides, the electrocardiogram, hand-held echocardiography, traditional echocardiography, or their combination?

PubMed

Galasko, Gavin I W; Barnes, Sophie C; Collinson, Paul; Lahiri, Avijit; Senior, Roxy

2006-01-01

To assess the screening characteristics and cost-effectiveness of screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) in community subjects. A total of 1392 members of the general public and 928 higher risk subjects were randomly selected from seven community practices. Attending subjects underwent an ECG, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) serum levels, and traditional echocardiography (TE). A total of 533 consecutive subjects underwent hand-held echocardiography (HE). The screening characteristics and cost-effectiveness (cost per case of LVSD diagnosed) of eight strategies to predict LVSD (LVSD <45% on TE) were compared. A total of 1205 subjects attended. Ninety six per cent of subjects with LVSD in the general population had identifiable risk factors. All screening strategies gave excellent negative predictive value. Screening high-risk subjects was most cost-effective, screening low-risk subjects least cost-effective. TE screening was the least cost-effective strategy. NTproBNP screening gave similar cost savings to ECG screening; HE screening greater cost-savings, and HE screening following NTproBNP or ECG pre-screening the greatest cost-savings, costing approximately 650 Euros per case of LVSD diagnosed in high-risk subjects (63% cost-savings vs.TE). Thus several different modalities allow cost-effective community-based screening for LVSD, especially in high-risk subjects. Such programmes would be cost-effective and miss few cases of LVSD in the community.

Physician perspectives and compliance with patient advance directives: the role external factors play on physician decision making.

PubMed

Burkle, Christopher M; Mueller, Paul S; Swetz, Keith M; Hook, C Christopher; Keegan, Mark T

2012-11-21

Following passage of the Patient Self Determination Act in 1990, health care institutions that receive Medicare and Medicaid funding are required to inform patients of their right to make their health care preferences known through execution of a living will and/or to appoint a surrogate-decision maker. We evaluated the impact of external factors and perceived patient preferences on physicians' decisions to honor or forgo previously established advance directives (ADs). In addition, physician views regarding legal risk, patients' ability to comprehend complexities involved with their care, and impact of medical costs related to end-of-life care decisions were explored. Attendees of two Mayo Clinic continuing medical education courses were surveyed. Three scenarios based in part on previously court-litigated matters assessed impact of external factors and perceived patient preferences on physician compliance with patient-articulated wishes regarding resuscitation. General questions measured respondents' perception of legal risk, concerns over patient knowledge of idiosyncrasies involved with their care, and impact medical costs may have on compliance with patient preferences. Responses indicating strength of agreement or disagreement with statements were treated as ordinal data and analyzed using the Cochran Armitage trend test. Three hundred eighty-eight of 951 surveys were completed (41% response rate). Eighty percent reported they were likely to honor a patient's AD despite its 5 year age. Fewer than half (41%) would honor the AD of a patient in ventricular fibrillation who had expressed a desire to "pass away in peace." Few (17%) would forgo an AD following a family's request for continued resuscitative treatment. A majority (52%) considered risk of liability to be lower when maintaining someone alive against their wishes than mistakenly failing to provide resuscitative efforts. A large percentage (74%) disagreed that patients could not appreciate complexities surrounding their care while 69% agreed that costs should never impact a physician's decision as to whether to comply with a patient's AD. Our findings highlight the impact, albeit small, external factors have on physician AD compliance. Most respondents based their decision on the clinical situation at hand and interpretation of the patient's initial wishes and preferences expressed by the AD.

Coping with constraints: Achieving effective conservation with limited resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walls, Susan

2018-01-01

Conservation resources have become increasingly limited and, along with social, cultural and political complexities, this shortfall frequently challenges effectiveness in conservation. Because conservation can be costly, efforts are often only initiated after a species has declined below a critical threshold and/or when statutory protection is mandated. However, implementing conservation proactively, rather than reactively, is predicted to be less costly and to decrease a species' risk of extinction. Despite these benefits, I document that the number of studies that have implemented proactive conservation around the world are far fewer than those that simply acknowledge the need for such action. I provide examples of proactive actions that can ameliorate shortfalls in funding and other assets, thus helping conservation practitioners and managers cope with the constraints that resource limitation imposes. Not all of these options are new; however, the timing of their implementation is critical for effective conservation, and the need for more proactive conservation is increasingly recognized. These actions are (1) strengthening and diversifying stakeholder involvement in conservation projects; (2) complementing time-consuming and labor-intensive demographic studies with alternative approaches of detecting declines and estimating extinction risk; and (3) minimizing future costly conservation and management by proactively keeping common species common. These approaches may not constitute a cure-all for every conservation crisis. However, given escalating rates of species' losses, perhaps a reminder that these proactive actions can reduce conservation costs, save time, and potentially thwart population declines is warranted.

Cost of practice in a tertiary/quaternary referral center: is it sustainable?

PubMed

Cologne, K G; Hwang, G S; Senagore, A J

2014-11-01

Third-party payers are moving toward a bundled care payment system. This means that there will need to be a warranty cost of care-where the cost of complexity and complication rates is built into the bundled payment. The theoretical benefit of this system is that providers with lower complication rates will be able to provide care with lower warranty costs and lower overall costs. This may also result in referring riskier patients to tertiary or quaternary referral centers. Unless the payment model truly covers the higher cost of managing such referred cases, the economic risk may be unsustainable for these centers. We took the last seven patients that were referred by other surgeons as "too high risk" for colectomy at other centers. A contribution margin was calculated using standard Medicare reimbursement rates at our institution and cost of care based on our administrative database. We then recalculated a contribution margin assuming a 3 % reduction in payment for a higher than average readmission rate, like that which will take effect in 2014. Finally, we took into account the cost of any readmissions. Seven patients with diagnosis related group (DRG) 330 were reviewed with an average age of 66.8 ± 16 years, American Society of Anesthesiologists score 2.3 ± 1.0, body mass index 31.6 ± 9.8 kg/m(2) (range 22-51 kg/m(2)). There was a 57 % readmission rate, 29 % reoperation rate, 10.8 ± 7.7 day average initial length of stay with 14 ± 8.6 day average readmission length of stay. Forty-two percent were discharged to a location other than home. Seventy-one percent of these patients had Medicare insurance. The case mix index was 2.45. Average reimbursement for DRG 330 was $17,084 (based on Medicare data) for our facility in 2012, with the national average being $12,520. The total contribution margin among all cases collectively was -$19,122 ± 13,285 (average per patient -$2,731, range -$21,905-$12,029). Assuming a 3 % reimbursement reduction made the overall contribution margin -$22,122 ± 13,285 (average -$3,244). Including the cost of readmission in the variable cost made the contribution margin -$115,741 ± 16,023 (average -$16,534). Care of high-risk patients at tertiary and quaternary referral centers is a very expensive proposition and can lead to financial ruin under the current reimbursement system.

Mapping for prevention: GIS models for directing childhood lead poisoning prevention programs.

PubMed Central

Miranda, Marie Lynn; Dolinoy, Dana C; Overstreet, M Alicia

2002-01-01

Environmental threats to children's health--especially low-level lead exposure--are complex and multifaceted; consequently, mitigation of these threats has proven costly and insufficient and has produced economic and racial disparities in exposure among populations. Policy makers, public health officials, child advocates, and others currently lack the appropriate infrastructure to evaluate children's risk and exposure potential across a broad range of risks. Unable to identify where the highest risk of exposure occurs, children's environmental health programs remain mitigative instead of preventive. In this article we use geographic information system spatial analysis of data from blood lead screening, county tax assessors, and the U.S. Census to predict statistically based lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit in six counties in North Carolina. The resulting model uses weighted risk factors to spatially locate modeled exposure zones, thus highlighting critical areas for targeted intervention. The methods presented here hold promise for application and extension to the other 94 North Carolina counties and nationally, as well as to other environmental health risks. PMID:12204831

Children with suspected craniosynostosis: a cost-effectiveness analysis of diagnostic strategies.

PubMed

Medina, L Santiago; Richardson, Randy R; Crone, Kerry

2002-07-01

Our purpose was to evaluate the clinical and economic impact of three evaluation strategies in children at different risks of craniosynostosis. A decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness model was constructed to compare three evaluation in strategies in children with suspected synostosis: no imaging, radiography (if abnormal, followed by three-dimensional CT [3D CT]), and 3D CT. Three risk groups were analyzed on the basis of the prevalence (pretest probability) of disease: low (completly healthy children; prevalence, 34/100,000), intermediate (healthy children with head deformity; prevalence, 1/115), and high risk (children with syndromic craniofacial disorders [i.e., Crouzon's syndrome or Apert's syndrome]; prevalence, 9-10/10). Test performance (sensitivity and specificity) of the evaluation strategies was obtained from the literature. Costs (not charge) estimates were obtained from the hospital cost-accounting database and from the Medicaid fee schedule. In the low-risk group, the radiographic and 3D CT strategies resulted in a cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of more than $560,000. In the intermediate-risk group, the radiographic strategy resulted in a cost per QALY gained of $54,600. Three-dimensional CT was more effective than the two other strategies but at a higher cost-hence, with a cost per QALY gained of $374,200. In the high-risk group, 3D CT was the most effective strategy with a cost per QALY gained of $33,800. Less experienced radiologists and poor-quality studies increased the evaluation cost per QALY gained for all of the risk groups because of decreased effectiveness. Radiologic screening of completely healthy children (low risk) for synostosis is not warranted because of the high cost per QALY gained of the radiographic and 3D CT strategies. In healthy children with head deformity (intermediate risk), the radiographic strategy had a reasonable cost per QALY gained. Three-dimensional CT was more effective but had a high cost per QALY gained. In children with syndromic craniofacial disorders (high risk), 3D CT was the most effective strategy and had a reasonable cost per QALY gained. Selection of children with suspected craniosynostosis based on their risk group and use of the most appropriate evaluation strategy could maximize clinical and economic outcomes for these patients.

Cost-effectiveness of medical primary prevention strategies to reduce absolute risk of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania: a Markov modelling study.

PubMed

Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ruhago, George M; Mori, Amani T; Robberstad, Bjarne; Norheim, Ole F

2016-05-17

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a growing cause of mortality and morbidity in Tanzania, but contextualized evidence on cost-effective medical strategies to prevent it is scarce. We aim to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of medical interventions for primary prevention of CVD using the World Health Organization's (WHO) absolute risk approach for four risk levels. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a societal perspective using two Markov decision models: CVD risk without diabetes and CVD risk with diabetes. Primary provider and patient costs were estimated using the ingredients approach and step-down methodologies. Epidemiological data and efficacy inputs were derived from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. We used disability- adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as the outcome measure. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the model results. For CVD low-risk patients without diabetes, medical management is not cost-effective unless willingness to pay (WTP) is higher than US$1327 per DALY averted. For moderate-risk patients, WTP must exceed US$164 per DALY before a combination of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and diuretic (Diu) becomes cost-effective, while for high-risk and very high-risk patients the thresholds are US$349 (ACEI, calcium channel blocker (CCB) and Diu) and US$498 per DALY (ACEI, CCB, Diu and Aspirin (ASA)) respectively. For patients with CVD risk with diabetes, a combination of sulfonylureas (Sulf), ACEI and CCB for low and moderate risk (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) US$608 and US$115 per DALY respectively), is the most cost-effective, while adding biguanide (Big) to this combination yielded the most favourable ICERs of US$309 and US$350 per DALY for high and very high risk respectively. For the latter, ASA is also part of the combination. Medical preventive cardiology is very cost-effective for all risk levels except low CVD risk. Budget impact analyses and distributional concerns should be considered further to assess governments' ability and to whom these benefits will accrue.

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Antoniou, Antonis C; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Menon, Usha

2016-09-01

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost-effective for RRSO at the 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% levels of OC risk, respectively. Premenopausal RRSO appears to be extremely cost-effective at ≥4% lifetime OC risk, with ≥42.7 days gain in life expectancy if compliance with hormone replacement therapy is high. Current guidelines should be re-evaluated to reduce the RRSO OC risk threshold to benefit a number of at-risk women who presently cannot access risk-reducing surgery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Reconfigurable, Intelligently-Adaptive, Communication System, an SDR Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roche, Rigoberto

2016-01-01

The Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) provides a common, consistent framework to abstract the application software from the radio platform hardware. STRS aims to reduce the cost and risk of using complex, configurable and reprogrammable radio systems across NASA missions. The Glenn Research Center (GRC) team made a software-defined radio (SDR) platform STRS compliant by adding an STRS operating environment and a field programmable gate array (FPGA) wrapper, capable of implementing each of the platforms interfaces, as well as a test waveform to exercise those interfaces. This effort serves to provide a framework toward waveform development on an STRS compliant platform to support future space communication systems for advanced exploration missions. Validated STRS compliant applications provided tested code with extensive documentation to potentially reduce risk, cost and efforts in development of space-deployable SDRs. This paper discusses the advantages of STRS, the integration of STRS onto a Reconfigurable, Intelligently-Adaptive, Communication System (RIACS) SDR platform, the sample waveform, and wrapper development efforts. The paper emphasizes the infusion of the STRS Architecture onto the RIACS platform for potential use in next generation SDRs for advance exploration missions.

Marketing HPV vaccine: implications for adolescent health and medical professionalism.

PubMed

Rothman, Sheila M; Rothman, David J

2009-08-19

The new vaccine against 4 types of human papillomavirus (HPV), Gardasil, like other immunizations appears to be a cost-effective intervention with the potential to enhance both adolescent health and the quality of their adult lives. However, the messages and the methods by which the vaccine was marketed present important challenges to physician practice and medical professionalism. By making the vaccine's target disease cervical cancer, the sexual transmission of HPV was minimized, the threat of cervical cancer to adolescents was maximized, and the subpopulations most at risk practically ignored. The vaccine manufacturer also provided educational grants to professional medical associations (PMAs) concerned with adolescent and women's health and oncology. The funding encouraged many PMAs to create educational programs and product-specific speakers' bureaus to promote vaccine use. However, much of the material did not address the full complexity of the issues surrounding the vaccine and did not provide balanced recommendations on risks and benefits. As important and appropriate as it is for PMAs to advocate for vaccination as a public good, their recommendations must be consistent with appropriate and cost-effective use.

The Costs and Risks of Medical Care

PubMed Central

McPhee, Stephen J.; Myers, Lois P.; Schroeder, Steven A.

1982-01-01

Understanding the costs and risks of medical care, as well as the benefits, is essential to good medical practice. The literature on this topic transcends disciplines, making it a challenge for clinicians and medical educators to compile information on costs and risks for use in patient care. This annotated bibliography presents summaries of pertinent references on (1) financial costs of care, (2) excessive use of medical services, (3) clinical risks of care, (4) decision analysis, (5) cost-benefit analyses, (6) factors affecting physician use of services and (7) strategies to improve physician ordering patterns. PMID:6814071

Clinical Costs of Colorectal Cancer Screening in 5 Federally Funded Demonstration Programs

PubMed Central

Tangka, Florence K. L.; Subramanian, Sujha; Beebe, Maggie C.; Hoover, Sonja; Royalty, Janet; Seeff, Laura C.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention initiated the Colorectal Cancer Screening Demonstration Program (CRCSDP) to explore the feasibility of establishing a large-scale colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program for underserved populations in the United States. The authors of this report assessed the clinical costs incurred at each of the 5 participating sites during the demonstration period. METHODS By using data on payments to providers by each of the 5 CRCSDP sites, the authors estimated costs for specific clinical services and overall clinical costs for each of the 2 CRC screening methods used by the sites: colonoscopy and fecal occult blood test (FOBT). RESULTS Among CRCSDP clients who were at average risk for CRC and for whom complete cost data were available, 2131 were screened by FOBT, and 1888 were screened by colonoscopy. The total average clinical cost per individual screened by FOBT (including costs for screening, diagnosis, initial surveillance, office visits, and associated clinical services averaged across all individuals who received screening FOBT) ranged from $48 in Nebraska to $149 in Greater Seattle. This compared with an average clinical cost per individual for all services related to the colonoscopy screening ranging from $654 in St. Louis to $1600 in Baltimore City. CONCLUSIONS Variations in how sites contracted with providers and in the services provided through CRCSDP affected the cost of clinical services and the complexity of collecting cost data. Health officials may find these data useful in program planning and budgeting. PMID:23868481

Update on the evaluation of repeated stone formers.

PubMed

Kadlec, Adam O; Turk, Thomas M

2013-12-01

Office management of stone disease is an important component of a urologist's practice. Evaluation should include analysis of stone composition, 24-hour urine studies, identification of modifiable risk factors, and targeted dietary, lifestyle, and/or medical therapy. A sizeable portion of investigated etiologies and risk factors for stone disease have centered on the complex interplay between obesity, diabetes, and other disease states that comprise the metabolic syndrome. Alternatives to traditional preventive therapy, such as probiotics and various fruit juices, are still being studied but may prove useful adjuncts to traditional preventive therapy, where the mainstays remain increased fluid intake, dietary modification, and pharmacologic therapy. Future studies on preventive therapy of urolithiasis are likely to focus on strategies to increase compliance, cost-effectiveness, and systems-based implementation.

The epidemiology of venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Heit, John A; Spencer, Frederick A; White, Richard H

2016-01-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is categorized by the U.S. Surgeon General as a major public health problem. VTE is relatively common and associated with reduced survival and substantial health-care costs, and recurs frequently. VTE is a complex (multifactorial) disease, involving interactions between acquired or inherited predispositions to thrombosis and VTE risk factors, including increasing patient age and obesity, hospitalization for surgery or acute illness, nursing-home confinement, active cancer, trauma or fracture, immobility or leg paresis, superficial vein thrombosis, and, in women, pregnancy and puerperium, oral contraception, and hormone therapy. Although independent VTE risk factors and predictors of VTE recurrence have been identified, and effective primary and secondary prophylaxis is available, the occurrence of VTE seems to be relatively constant, or even increasing.

Risk Management for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

The secret to health information technology's success within the diabetes patient population: a comprehensive privacy and security framework.

PubMed

Pandya, Sheel M

2010-05-01

Congress made an unprecedented investment in health information technology (IT) when it passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in February 2009. Health IT provides enormous opportunities to improve health care quality, reduce costs, and engage patients in their own care. But the potential payoff for use of health IT for diabetes care is magnified given the prevalence, cost, and complexity of the disease. However, without proper privacy and security protections in place, diabetes patient data are at risk of misuse, and patient trust in the system is undermined. We need a comprehensive privacy and security framework that articulates clear parameters for access, use, and disclosure of diabetes patient data for all entities storing and exchanging electronic data. (c) 2010 Diabetes Technology Society.

Cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene incorporating the FRAX® algorithm in a European perspective.

PubMed

Borgström, F; Ström, O; Kleman, M; McCloskey, E; Johansson, H; Odén, A; Kanis, J A

2011-03-01

The cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene was compared to placebo in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK from a healthcare perspective using FRAX® for both fracture risks and for treatment efficacy. Cost/QALY differences were explained to a large extent by differences in fracture risk. In cost-effectiveness modelling of osteoporosis treatments, the fracture risk has traditionally been calculated with risk adjustments based on age, bone mineral density and prior fracture. However, knowledge of additional clinical risk factors contributes to fracture risk assessment as demonstrated by the FRAX® tool. Bazedoxifene, a new selective estrogen receptor modulator for the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis, has been shown in a phase III clinical trial to reduce the risk of osteoporotic fractures in women. In an analysis using FRAX®, the efficacy of bazedoxifene was greater in patients with higher fracture risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene compared to placebo in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK from a healthcare perspective using FRAX®. A Markov cohort model was adapted to incorporate the FRAX® risk factors. FRAX® produces relative risks for hip fractures and major osteoporotic fractures. Patients were given a 5-year intervention, reducing the risk of fractures in a risk-dependent manner. The effect of treatment on fractures was assumed to decline linearly over 5 years after the intervention. There are large cost/quality-adjusted life year variations between countries in the European setting studied. The base case values ranged from cost saving (Sweden) to EUR 105,450 (Spain) in 70-year-old women with a T-score of -2.5 SD and a prior fracture. Bazedoxifene can be a cost-effective treatment for postmenopausal osteoporosis. The variability between countries was explained to a large extent by differences in fracture risk, and the estimated cost-effectiveness was highly dependent on the population's FRAX®-estimated probability of major osteoporotic fracture.

On Convergence of Development Costs and Cost Models for Complex Spaceflight Instrument Electronics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kizhner, Semion; Patel, Umeshkumar D.; Kasa, Robert L.; Hestnes, Phyllis; Brown, Tammy; Vootukuru, Madhavi

2008-01-01

Development costs of a few recent spaceflight instrument electrical and electronics subsystems have diverged from respective heritage cost model predictions. The cost models used are Grass Roots, Price-H and Parametric Model. These cost models originated in the military and industry around 1970 and were successfully adopted and patched by NASA on a mission-by-mission basis for years. However, the complexity of new instruments recently changed rapidly by orders of magnitude. This is most obvious in the complexity of representative spaceflight instrument electronics' data system. It is now required to perform intermediate processing of digitized data apart from conventional processing of science phenomenon signals from multiple detectors. This involves on-board instrument formatting of computational operands from row data for example, images), multi-million operations per second on large volumes of data in reconfigurable hardware (in addition to processing on a general purpose imbedded or standalone instrument flight computer), as well as making decisions for on-board system adaptation and resource reconfiguration. The instrument data system is now tasked to perform more functions, such as forming packets and instrument-level data compression of more than one data stream, which are traditionally performed by the spacecraft command and data handling system. It is furthermore required that the electronics box for new complex instruments is developed for one-digit watt power consumption, small size and that it is light-weight, and delivers super-computing capabilities. The conflict between the actual development cost of newer complex instruments and its electronics components' heritage cost model predictions seems to be irreconcilable. This conflict and an approach to its resolution are addressed in this paper by determining the complexity parameters, complexity index, and their use in enhanced cost model.

Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gafurov, Andrey; Skotarenko, Oksana; Plotnikov, Vladimir

2018-03-01

The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the "Project analysis scenario" flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.

Modeling Flood Insurance Penetration in the European Non-Life Market: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, P.; Thomson, M.-K.; Das, A.

2012-04-01

Non-life property insurance plays a significant role in assessing and managing economic risk. Understanding the exposure, or property at risk, helps insurers and reinsurers to better categorize and manage their portfolios. However, the nature of the flood peril, in particular adverse selection, has led to a complex system of different insurance covers and policies across Europe owing to its public and private distinctions based on premiums provided as ex ante or ex post, socio-economic characterization and various compensation schemes. To model this significant level of complexity within the European flood insurance market requires not only extensive data research, close understanding of insurance companies and associations as well as historic flood events, but also careful evaluation of the flood hazard in terms of return periods and flood extents, and the economic/ financial background of the geographies involved. This abstract explores different approaches for modeling the flood insurance penetration rates in Europe depending on the information available and complexity involved. For countries which have either a regulated market with mandatory or high penetration rate, as for example found in the UK, France and Switzerland, or indeed countries with negligible insurance cover such as Luxembourg, assumptions about the penetration rates can be made at country level. However, in countries with a private insurance market, the picture becomes inherently more complex. For example in both Austria and Germany, flood insurance is generally restricted, associated with high costs to the insured or not available at all in high risk areas. In order to better manage flood risk, the Austria and German government agencies produced the risk classification systems HORA and ZÜRS, respectively, which categorize risk into four risk zones based on the exceedance probability of a flood occurrence. Except for regions that have preserved mandatory flood inclusion from past policies, insurance cover is generally limited or not available in high risk zones due to high risk proximity. To estimate this relationship, flood extent maps, modeled return periods, socio- economic indicators and the spatial distribution of insured portfolios can be used to quantify the economic to insured exposure ratio. Adequately modeling these insurance conditions not only allows developing an industry view of the exposed property and values at risk from flood but also improves loss assessments. From an insurance perspective, such a model is beneficial for assessing insurance cover related to flood damage - especially due to differences in policies in high-exposure zones - the role of governments, and to assist insurers and reinsurers to make informed decision in allocating their portfolios.

Risk management.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2010-01-01

Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

Prediction of higher cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART) according to clinical complexity. A validated clinical index.

PubMed

Velasco, Cesar; Pérez, Inaki; Podzamczer, Daniel; Llibre, Josep Maria; Domingo, Pere; González-García, Juan; Puig, Inma; Ayala, Pilar; Martín, Mayte; Trilla, Antoni; Lázaro, Pablo; Gatell, Josep Maria

2016-03-01

The financing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is generally determined by the cost incurred in the previous year, the number of patients on treatment, and the evidence-based recommendations, but not the clinical characteristics of the population. To establish a score relating the cost of ART and patient clinical complexity in order to understand the costing differences between hospitals in the region that could be explained by the clinical complexity of their population. Retrospective analysis of patients receiving ART in a tertiary hospital between 2009 and 2011. Factors potentially associated with a higher cost of ART were assessed by bivariate and multivariate analysis. Two predictive models of "high-cost" were developed. The normalized estimated (adjusted for the complexity scores) costs were calculated and compared with the normalized real costs. In the Hospital Index, 631 (16.8%) of the 3758 patients receiving ART were responsible for a "high-cost" subgroup, defined as the highest 25% of spending on ART. Baseline variables that were significant predictors of high cost in the Clinic-B model in the multivariate analysis were: route of transmission of HIV, AIDS criteria, Spanish nationality, year of initiation of ART, CD4+ lymphocyte count nadir, and number of hospital admissions. The Clinic-B score ranged from 0 to 13, and the mean value (5.97) was lower than the overall mean value of the four hospitals (6.16). The clinical complexity of the HIV patient influences the cost of ART. The Clinic-B and Clinic-BF scores predicted patients with high cost of ART and could be used to compare and allocate costs corrected for the patient clinical complexity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

2017-04-01

A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with observed values) and in terms of their economic value. This assessment is performed for lead times of one to five days. The three systems are: (1) simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, (2) forecasts based on meteorological ensembles and (3) a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variables uncertainty. The comparison takes place on the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in south central Quebec, Canada. The results show that forecasts quality as assessed by well-known tools such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score or the reliability diagram do not necessarily translate directly into economic value, especially if the decision maker is not risk-neutral. In addition, results show that the economic value of forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker is very much influenced by the most extreme members of ensemble forecasts (upper tail of the predictive distributions). This study provides a new basis for further improvement of our comprehension of the complex interactions between forecasts uncertainty, risk-aversion and decision-making.

Cost-effectiveness of statins for primary prevention in patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in the Netherlands.

PubMed

de Vries, Folgerdiena M; Denig, Petra; Visser, Sipke T; Hak, Eelko; Postma, Maarten J

2014-03-01

Statins are lipid-lowering drugs that reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes. The objective of this study was to determine whether statin treatment for primary prevention in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes is cost-effective, taking nonadherence, baseline risk, and age into account. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by using a Markov model with a time horizon of 10 years. The baseline 10-year cardiovascular risk was estimated in a Dutch population of primary prevention patients with newly diagnosed diabetes from the Groningen Initiative to Analyse Type 2 Diabetes Treatment (GIANTT) database, using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Statin adherence was measured as pill days covered in the IADB.nl pharmacy research database. Cost-effectiveness was measured in costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) from the health care payers' perspective. For an average patient aged 60 years, the base case, statin treatment was highly cost-effective at €2245 per QALY. Favorable cost-effectiveness was robust in sensitivity analysis. Differences in age and 10-year cardiovascular risk showed large differences in cost-effectiveness from almost €100,000 per QALY to almost being cost saving. Treating all patients younger than 45 years at diabetes diagnosis was not cost-effective (weighted cost-effectiveness of almost €60,000 per QALY). Despite the nonadherence levels observed in actual practice, statin treatment is cost-effective for primary prevention in patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Because of large differences in cost-effectiveness according to different risk and age groups, the efficiency of the treatment could be increased by targeting patients with relatively higher cardiovascular risk and higher ages. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction.

PubMed

Malik, I S; Bhatia, V K; Kooner, J S

2001-05-01

To assess the cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment in patients at low, medium, and high risk of cardiovascular death. Population based cost effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the health care provider in the UK. Effectiveness was modelled using data from the HOPE (heart outcome prevention evaluation) trial. The life table method was used to predict mortality in a medium risk cohort, as in the HOPE trial (2.44% annual mortality), and in low and high risk groups (1% and 4.5% annual mortality, respectively). UK population using 1998 government actuary department data. Cost per life year gained at five years and lifetime treatment with ramipril. Cost effectiveness was pound36 600, pound13 600, and pound4000 per life year gained at five years and pound5300, pound1900, and pound100 per life year gained at 20 years (lifetime treatment) in low, medium, and high risk groups, respectively. Cost effectiveness at 20 years remained well below that of haemodialysis ( pound25 000 per life year gained) over a range of potential drug costs and savings. Treatment of the HOPE population would cost the UK National Health Service (NHS) an additional pound360 million but would prevent 12 000 deaths per annum. Ramipril is cost effective treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients at medium, high, and low pretreatment risk, with a cost effectiveness comparable with the use of statins. Implementation of ramipril treatment in a medium risk population would result in a major reduction in cardiovascular deaths but would increase annual NHS spending by pound360 million.

7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...

7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...

The Cost-Effectiveness of Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Patients at Risk of Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Franklin, Matthew; Wailoo, Allan; Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

2016-11-15

In March 2008, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended stopping antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) for those at risk of infective endocarditis (IE) undergoing dental procedures in the United Kingdom, citing a lack of evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. We have performed a new economic evaluation of AP on the basis of contemporary estimates of efficacy, adverse events, and resource implications. A decision analytic cost-effectiveness model was used. Health service costs and benefits (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) were estimated. Rates of IE before and after the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance were available to estimate prophylactic efficacy. AP adverse event rates were derived from recent UK data, and resource implications were based on English Hospital Episode Statistics. AP was less costly and more effective than no AP for all patients at risk of IE. The results are sensitive to AP efficacy, but efficacy would have to be substantially lower for AP not to be cost-effective. AP was even more cost-effective in patients at high risk of IE. Only a marginal reduction in annual IE rates (1.44 cases in high-risk and 33 cases in all at-risk patients) would be required for AP to be considered cost-effective at £20 000 ($26 600) per quality-adjusted life-year. Annual cost savings of £5.5 to £8.2 million ($7.3-$10.9 million) and health gains >2600 quality-adjusted life-years could be achieved from reinstating AP in England. AP is cost-effective for preventing IE, particularly in those at high risk. These findings support the cost-effectiveness of guidelines recommending AP use in high-risk individuals. © 2016 The Authors.

Impact Of Health Care Delivery System Innovations On Total Cost Of Care.

PubMed

Smith, Kevin W; Bir, Anupa; Freeman, Nikki L B; Koethe, Benjamin C; Cohen, Julia; Day, Timothy J

2017-03-01

Using delivery system innovations to advance health care reform continues to be of widespread interest. However, it is difficult to generalize about the success of specific types of innovations, since they have been examined in only a few studies. To gain a broader perspective, we analyzed the results of forty-three ambulatory care programs funded by the first round of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation's Health Care Innovations Awards. The innovations' impacts on total cost of care were estimated by independent evaluators using multivariable difference-in-differences models. Through the first two years, most of the innovations did not show a significant effect on total cost of care. Using meta-regression, we assessed the effects on costs of five common components of these innovations. Innovations that used health information technology or community health workers achieved the greatest cost savings. Savings were also relatively large in programs that targeted clinically fragile patients-clinically complex populations at risk for disease progression. While the magnitude of these effects was often substantial, none achieved conventional levels of significance in our analyses. Meta-analyses of a larger number of delivery system innovations are needed to more clearly establish their potential for patient care cost savings. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Costs of fear: Behavioral and life-history responses to risk and their demographic consequences vary across species

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaManna, Joseph A.; Martin, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Behavioural responses to reduce predation risk might cause demographic ‘costs of fear’. Costs differ among species, but a conceptual framework to understand this variation is lacking. We use a life-history framework to tie together diverse traits and life stages to better understand interspecific variation in responses and costs. We used natural and experimental variation in predation risk to test phenotypic responses and associated demographic costs for 10 songbird species. Responses such as increased parental attentiveness yielded reduced development time and created benefits such as reduced predation probability. Yet, responses to increased risk also created demographic costs by reducing offspring production in the absence of direct predation. This cost of fear varied widely across species, but predictably with the probability of repeat breeding. Use of a life-history framework can aid our understanding of potential demographic costs from predation, both from responses to perceived risk and from direct predation mortality.

Cost-Effectiveness of Staphylococcus aureus Decolonization Strategies in High-Risk Total Joint Arthroplasty Patients.

PubMed

Williams, Devin M; Miller, Andy O; Henry, Michael W; Westrich, Geoffrey H; Ghomrawi, Hassan M K

2017-09-01

The risk of prosthetic joint infection increases with Staphylococcus aureus colonization. The cost-effectiveness of decolonization is controversial. We evaluated cost-effectiveness decolonization protocols in high-risk arthroplasty patients. An analytical model evaluated risk under 3 protocols: 4 swabs, 2 swabs, and nasal swab alone. These were compared to no-screening and universal decolonization strategies. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from the hospital, patient, and societal perspective. Under base case conditions, universal decolonization and 4-swab strategies were most effective. The 2-swab and universal decolonization strategy were most cost-effective from patient and societal perspectives. From the hospital perspective, universal decolonization was the dominant strategy (much less costly and more effective). S aureus decolonization may be cost-effective for reducing prosthetic joint infections in high-risk patients. These results may have important implications for treatment of patients and for cost containment in a bundled payment system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

2015-01-01

There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated themore » cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.« less

A cost-effectiveness analysis of prophylactic surgery versus gynecologic surveillance for women from hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) Families.

PubMed

Yang, Kathleen Y; Caughey, Aaron B; Little, Sarah E; Cheung, Michael K; Chen, Lee-May

2011-09-01

Women at risk for Lynch Syndrome/HNPCC have an increased lifetime risk of endometrial and ovarian cancer. This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic surgery versus surveillance in women with Lynch Syndrome. A decision analytic model was designed incorporating key clinical decisions and existing probabilities, costs, and outcomes from the literature. Clinical forum where risk-reducing surgery and surveillance were considered. A theoretical population of women with Lynch Syndrome at age 30 was used for the analysis. A decision analytic model was designed comparing the health outcomes of prophylactic hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy at age 30 versus annual gynecologic screening versus annual gynecologic exam. The literature was searched for probabilities of different health outcomes, results of screening modalities, and costs of cancer diagnosis and treatment. Cost-effectiveness expressed in dollars per discounted life-years. Risk-reducing surgery is the least expensive option, costing $23,422 per patient for 25.71 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Annual screening costs $68,392 for 25.17 QALYs; and annual examination without screening costs $100,484 for 24.60 QALYs. Further, because risk-reducing surgery leads to both the lowest costs and the highest number of QALYs, it is a dominant strategy. Risk-reducing surgery is the most cost-effective option from a societal healthcare cost perspective.

Complex home care: Part 2- family annual income, insurance premium, and out-of-pocket expenses.

PubMed

Piamjariyakul, Ubolrat; Yadrich, Donna Macan; Ross, Vicki M; Smith, Carol E; Clements, Faye; Williams, Arthur R

2010-01-01

Annual costs paid by families for intravenous infusion of home parenteral nutrition (HPN) health insurance premiums, deductibles, co-payments for health services, and the wide range of out-of-pocket home health care expenses are significant. The costs of managing complex chronic care at home cannot be completely understood until all out-of-pocket costs have been defined, described, and tabulated. Non-reimbursed and out-of-pocket costs paid by families over years for complex chronic care negatively impact the financial stability of families. National health care reform must take into account the long-term financial burdens of families caring for those with complex home care. Any changes that may increase the out-of-pocket costs or health insurance costs to these families can also have a negative long-term impact on society when greater numbers of patients declare bankruptcy or qualify for medical disability.

Environmental pollution and shipping feasibility of the Nicaragua Canal.

PubMed

Chen, Jihong; Zeng, Xin; Deng, Yibing

2016-12-15

In recent years, the Nicaraguan government's renewed interest in constructing this interoceanic canal has once again aroused widespread concern, particularly in the global shipping industry. The project's immense ecological risks, coupled with the recent expansions of both the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal, have raised questions among scientists and experts about its viability. Whether the Nicaragua Canal is really feasible for international shipping, given its high marine pollution risks, requires the further study. This paper discusses and analyses the feasibility of the Nicaragua Canal in the context of its environmental impact and value as a shipping service. This paper aims to provide an important information reference to inform strategic decision-making among policymakers and stakeholders. Our research results indicate that the environmental complexity, economic costs and safety risks of building a new transoceanic canal are simply too high to justify the project. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solving the Value Equation: Assessing Surgeon Performance Using Risk-Adjusted Quality-Cost Diagrams and Surgical Outcomes.

PubMed

Knechtle, William S; Perez, Sebastian D; Raval, Mehul V; Sullivan, Patrick S; Duwayri, Yazan M; Fernandez, Felix; Sharma, Joe; Sweeney, John F

Quality-cost diagrams have been used previously to assess interventions and their cost-effectiveness. This study explores the use of risk-adjusted quality-cost diagrams to compare the value provided by surgeons by presenting cost and outcomes simultaneously. Colectomy cases from a single institution captured in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were linked to hospital cost-accounting data to determine costs per encounter. Risk adjustment models were developed and observed average cost and complication rates per surgeon were compared to expected cost and complication rates using the diagrams. Surgeons were surveyed to determine if the diagrams could provide information that would result in practice adjustment. Of 55 surgeons surveyed on the utility of the diagrams, 92% of respondents believed the diagrams were useful. The diagrams seemed intuitive to interpret, and making risk-adjusted comparisons accounted for patient differences in the evaluation.

Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

2017-09-01

To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic impact of a Medicaid population health management program.

PubMed

Rust, George; Strothers, Harry; Miller, William Johnson; McLaren, Susan; Moore, Barbara; Sambamoorthi, Usha

2011-10-01

A population health management program was implemented to assess growth in health care expenditures for the disabled segment of Georgia's Medicaid population before and during the first year of a population health outcomes management program, and to compare those expenditures with projected costs based on various cost inflation trend assumptions. A retrospective, nonexperimental approach was used to analyze claims data from Georgia Medicaid claims files for all program-eligible persons for each relevant time period (intent-to-treat basis). These included all non-Medicare, noninstitutionalized Medicaid aged-blind-disabled adults older than 18 years of age. Comparisons of health care expenditures and utilization were made between base year (2003-2004) and performance year one (2006-2007), and of the difference between actual expenditures incurred in the performance year vs. projected expenditures based on various cost inflation assumptions. Demographic characteristics and clinical complexity of the population (as measured by the Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System risk score) actually increased from baseline to implementation. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures using any relevant medical inflation assumption. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures by $9.82 million when using a conservative US general medical inflation rate, by $43.6 million using national Medicaid cost trends, and by $106 million using Georgia Medicaid's own cost projections for the non-dually eligible disabled segment of Medicaid enrollees. Quadratic growth curve modeling also demonstrated a lower rate of increase in total expenditures. The rate of increase in expenditures was lower over the first year of program implementation compared with baseline. Weighted utilization rates were also lower in high-cost categories, such as inpatient days, despite increases in the risk profile of the population. Varying levels of cost avoidance could be inferred from differences between actual and projected expenditures using each of the health-related inflation assumptions.

Economic Impact of a Medicaid Population Health Management Program

PubMed Central

Strothers, Harry; Miller, William Johnson; McLaren, Susan; Moore, Barbara; Sambamoorthi, Usha

2011-01-01

Abstract A population health management program was implemented to assess growth in health care expenditures for the disabled segment of Georgia's Medicaid population before and during the first year of a population health outcomes management program, and to compare those expenditures with projected costs based on various cost inflation trend assumptions. A retrospective, nonexperimental approach was used to analyze claims data from Georgia Medicaid claims files for all program-eligible persons for each relevant time period (intent-to-treat basis). These included all non-Medicare, noninstitutionalized Medicaid aged-blind-disabled adults older than 18 years of age. Comparisons of health care expenditures and utilization were made between base year (2003–2004) and performance year one (2006–2007), and of the difference between actual expenditures incurred in the performance year vs. projected expenditures based on various cost inflation assumptions. Demographic characteristics and clinical complexity of the population (as measured by the Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System risk score) actually increased from baseline to implementation. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures using any relevant medical inflation assumption. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures by $9.82 million when using a conservative US general medical inflation rate, by $43.6 million using national Medicaid cost trends, and by $106 million using Georgia Medicaid's own cost projections for the non-dually eligible disabled segment of Medicaid enrollees. Quadratic growth curve modeling also demonstrated a lower rate of increase in total expenditures. The rate of increase in expenditures was lower over the first year of program implementation compared with baseline. Weighted utilization rates were also lower in high-cost categories, such as inpatient days, despite increases in the risk profile of the population. Varying levels of cost avoidance could be inferred from differences between actual and projected expenditures using each of the health-related inflation assumptions. (Population Health Management 2011;14:215–222) PMID:21506728

Modeling OPC complexity for design for manufacturability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Puneet; Kahng, Andrew B.; Muddu, Swamy; Nakagawa, Sam; Park, Chul-Hong

2005-11-01

Increasing design complexity in sub-90nm designs results in increased mask complexity and cost. Resolution enhancement techniques (RET) such as assist feature addition, phase shifting (attenuated PSM) and aggressive optical proximity correction (OPC) help in preserving feature fidelity in silicon but increase mask complexity and cost. Data volume increase with rise in mask complexity is becoming prohibitive for manufacturing. Mask cost is determined by mask write time and mask inspection time, which are directly related to the complexity of features printed on the mask. Aggressive RET increase complexity by adding assist features and by modifying existing features. Passing design intent to OPC has been identified as a solution for reducing mask complexity and cost in several recent works. The goal of design-aware OPC is to relax OPC tolerances of layout features to minimize mask cost, without sacrificing parametric yield. To convey optimal OPC tolerances for manufacturing, design optimization should drive OPC tolerance optimization using models of mask cost for devices and wires. Design optimization should be aware of impact of OPC correction levels on mask cost and performance of the design. This work introduces mask cost characterization (MCC) that quantifies OPC complexity, measured in terms of fracture count of the mask, for different OPC tolerances. MCC with different OPC tolerances is a critical step in linking design and manufacturing. In this paper, we present a MCC methodology that provides models of fracture count of standard cells and wire patterns for use in design optimization. MCC cannot be performed by designers as they do not have access to foundry OPC recipes and RET tools. To build a fracture count model, we perform OPC and fracturing on a limited set of standard cells and wire configurations with all tolerance combinations. Separately, we identify the characteristics of the layout that impact fracture count. Based on the fracture count (FC) data from OPC and mask data preparation runs, we build models of FC as function of OPC tolerances and layout parameters.

The choice of detecting Down syndrome: does money matter?

PubMed

Garrouste, Clémentine; Le, Jérôme; Maurin, Eric

2011-09-01

The prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome (amniocentesis) presents parents with a complex dilemma which requires comparing the risk of giving birth to an affected child and the risk of losing an unaffected child through amniocentesis-related miscarriage. Building on the specific features of the French Health insurance system, this paper shows that variation in the monetary costs of the diagnosis procedure may have a very significant impact on how parents solve this ethical dilemma. The French institutions make it possible to compare otherwise similar women facing very different reimbursement schemes and we find that eligibility to full reimbursement has a largely positive effect on the probability of taking an amniocentesis test. By contrast, the sole fact of being labelled 'high-risk' by the Health system seems to have, as such, only a modest effect on subsequent choices. Finally, building on available information on post-amniocentesis outcomes, we report new evidence suggesting that amniocentesis increases the risk of premature birth and low weight at birth. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Can a costly intervention be cost-effective?: An analysis of violence prevention.

PubMed

Foster, E Michael; Jones, Damon

2006-11-01

To examine the cost-effectiveness of the Fast Track intervention, a multi-year, multi-component intervention designed to reduce violence among at-risk children. A previous report documented the favorable effect of intervention on the highest-risk group of ninth-graders diagnosed with conduct disorder, as well as self-reported delinquency. The current report addressed the cost-effectiveness of the intervention for these measures of program impact. Costs of the intervention were estimated using program budgets. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were computed to determine the cost per unit of improvement in the 3 outcomes measured in the 10th year of the study. Examination of the total sample showed that the intervention was not cost-effective at likely levels of policymakers' willingness to pay for the key outcomes. Subsequent analysis of those most at risk, however, showed that the intervention likely was cost-effective given specified willingness-to-pay criteria. Results indicate that the intervention is cost-effective for the children at highest risk. From a policy standpoint, this finding is encouraging because such children are likely to generate higher costs for society over their lifetimes. However, substantial barriers to cost-effectiveness remain, such as the ability to effectively identify and recruit such higher-risk children in future implementations.

Can a Costly Intervention Be Cost-effective?

PubMed Central

Foster, E. Michael; Jones, Damon

2009-01-01

Objectives To examine the cost-effectiveness of the Fast Track intervention, a multi-year, multi-component intervention designed to reduce violence among at-risk children. A previous report documented the favorable effect of intervention on the highest-risk group of ninth-graders diagnosed with conduct disorder, as well as self-reported delinquency. The current report addressed the cost-effectiveness of the intervention for these measures of program impact. Design Costs of the intervention were estimated using program budgets. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were computed to determine the cost per unit of improvement in the 3 outcomes measured in the 10th year of the study. Results Examination of the total sample showed that the intervention was not cost-effective at likely levels of policymakers' willingness to pay for the key outcomes. Subsequent analysis of those most at risk, however, showed that the intervention likely was cost-effective given specified willingness-to-pay criteria. Conclusions Results indicate that the intervention is cost-effective for the children at highest risk. From a policy standpoint, this finding is encouraging because such children are likely to generate higher costs for society over their lifetimes. However, substantial barriers to cost-effectiveness remain, such as the ability to effectively identify and recruit such higher-risk children in future implementations. PMID:17088509

The learning curve and the cost of heart transplantation.

PubMed

Woods, J R; Saywell, R M; Nyhuis, A W; Jay, S J; Lohrman, R G; Halbrook, H G

1992-06-01

The effect of learning on hospital outcomes such as mortality or adverse events (the so-called "practice makes perfect" hypothesis) has been studied by numerous investigators. The effect of learning on hospital cost, however, has received much less attention. This article reports the results of a multiple regression model demonstrating a nonlinear, decreasing trend in operative and postoperative hospital costs over time in a consecutive series of 71 heart transplant patients, all treated in the same institution. The cost trend is shown to persist even after controlling for various preoperative demographic and clinical risk factors and the specific experience of individual surgeons. Using a reference case, the model predicts a cost of $81,297 for the first heart transplant procedure performed at the hospital. If this same patient had been the tenth case rather than the first, with the hospital having benefited from the experience gained in nine previous cases, the model predicts the cost would now be only $48,431, or approximately 60 percent of the cost of the first case. Had this patient been the twenty-fifth case, the predicted cost would be $35,352 (43 percent of the original cost), and had this been the fiftieth case, the cost would be $25,458 (31 percent of the original cost). The longitudinal study design used in this analysis greatly reduces the likelihood that the observed cost reduction is due to economies of scale rather than learning. The results have implications for a policy of regionalization as a tactic for containing hospital cost. Whereas others have pointed to a volume-cost relationship as an argument for the regionalization of expensive and complex hospital procedures, the present data isolate a learning-cost relationship as a separate argument for regionalization.

A systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses of complex wound interventions reveals optimal treatments for specific wound types.

PubMed

Tricco, Andrea C; Cogo, Elise; Isaranuwatchai, Wanrudee; Khan, Paul A; Sanmugalingham, Geetha; Antony, Jesmin; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Straus, Sharon E

2015-04-22

Complex wounds present a substantial economic burden on healthcare systems, costing billions of dollars annually in North America alone. The prevalence of complex wounds is a significant patient and societal healthcare concern and cost-effective wound care management remains unclear. This article summarizes the cost-effectiveness of interventions for complex wound care through a systematic review of the evidence base. We searched multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library) for cost-effectiveness studies that examined adults treated for complex wounds. Two reviewers independently screened the literature, abstracted data from full-text articles, and assessed methodological quality using the Drummond 10-item methodological quality tool. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were reported, or, if not reported, calculated and converted to United States Dollars for the year 2013. Overall, 59 cost-effectiveness analyses were included; 71% (42 out of 59) of the included studies scored 8 or more points on the Drummond 10-item checklist tool. Based on these, 22 interventions were found to be more effective and less costly (i.e., dominant) compared to the study comparators: 9 for diabetic ulcers, 8 for venous ulcers, 3 for pressure ulcers, 1 for mixed venous and venous/arterial ulcers, and 1 for mixed complex wound types. Our results can be used by decision-makers in maximizing the deployment of clinically effective and resource efficient wound care interventions. Our analysis also highlights specific treatments that are not cost-effective, thereby indicating areas of resource savings. Please see related article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-015-0288-5.

Effect of outpatient treatment of febrile neutropenia on the risk threshold for the use of CSF in patients with cancer treated with chemotherapy.

PubMed

Cosler, Leon E; Sivasubramaniam, Visaharan; Agboola, Olayemi; Crawford, Jeffrey; Dale, David; Lyman, Gary H

2005-01-01

Febrile neutropenia (FN) in patients with cancer treated with chemotherapy has traditionally been managed with inpatient broad-spectrum antibiotics until the infection and neutropenia have resolved. A newer strategy is outpatient oral or intravenous antibiotics in selected patients after an initial hospitalization. We sought to determine these costs, both overall and relative to those of traditional management, and the optimal role of prophylactic colony-stimulating factor (CSF) in patients at greatest risk for FN. Existing economic decision models were modified by incorporating a treatment strategy for FN in which patients are classified as high- and low-risk according to criteria described by Talcott. Low-risk patients were assumed to be treated as outpatients. Overall costs with the revised economic model were assessed and sensitivity analyses were performed. The costs of an episode of FN were estimated as 1) no CSF: dollar 13,355; 2) CSF with hospitalization for FN: dollar 8677; and 3) CSF with risk stratification and outpatient management in low-risk patients: dollar 8188. The risk threshold for the cost-effective use of CSF was only slightly lower with outpatient treatment. When all patients with FN are treated as inpatients and the cost of hospitalization is dollar 1750/day the risk threshold for FN at which prophylactic CSF becomes cost-effective is 16%. It is 15% when low-risk patients are treated as outpatients. Outpatient treatment slightly decreases the risk threshold for FN at which prophylactic CSF becomes cost-effective. The limited economic effect of this strategy may be because the patients who were at greatest risk of complications had significantly longer lengths of stay and accounted for most of the hospitalization costs.

The cost of genetic testing for ocular disease: who pays?

PubMed

Capasso, Jenina E

2014-09-01

To facilitate ophthalmologists' understanding on the cost of genetic testing in ocular disease, the complexities of insurance coverage and its impact on the availability of testing. Many insurance carriers address coverage for genetic testing in written clinical policies. They provide criteria for medically necessary testing. These policies mostly cover testing for individuals who are symptomatic and in whom testing will have a direct impact on medical treatment. In cases in which no treatments are currently available, other than research trials, patients may have difficulty in getting insurance coverage for genetic testing. Genetic testing for inherited eye diseases can be costly but has many benefits to patient care, including confirmation of a diagnosis, insight into prognostic information, and identification of associated health risks, inheritance patterns, and possible current and future treatments. As gene therapy advances progress, the availability for treatment in ocular diseases, coverage for genetic testing by third-party payers could increase on the basis of current clinical policies.

Space shuttle/food system study. Volume 2, Appendix A: Active heating system-screening analysis. Appendix B: Reconstituted food heating techniques analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Technical data are presented which were used to evaluate active heating methods to be incorporated into the space shuttle food system design, and also to evaluate the relative merits and penalties associated with various approaches to the heating of rehydrated food during space flight. Equipment heating candidates were subject to a preliminary screening performed by a selection rationale process which considered the following parameters; (1) gravitational effect; (2) safety; (3) operability; (4) system compatibility; (5) serviceability; (6) crew acceptability; (7) crew time; (8) development risk; and (9) operating cost. A hot air oven, electrically heated food tray, and microwave oven were selected for further consideration and analysis. Passive, semi-active, and active food preparation approaches were also studied in an effort to determine the optimum method for heating rehydrated food. Potential complexity, cost, vehicle impact penalties, and palatability were considered in the analysis. A summary of the study results is provided along with cost estimates for each of the potential sytems

Advanced Engineering Environments: Implications for Aerospace Manufacturing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, D.

2001-01-01

There are significant challenges facing today's aerospace industry. Global competition, more complex products, geographically-distributed design teams, demands for lower cost, higher reliability and safer vehicles, and the need to incorporate the latest technologies quicker all face the developer of aerospace systems. New information technologies offer promising opportunities to develop advanced engineering environments (AEEs) to meet these challenges. Significant advances in the state-of-the-art of aerospace engineering practice are envisioned in the areas of engineering design and analytical tools, cost and risk tools, collaborative engineering, and high-fidelity simulations early in the development cycle. These advances will enable modeling and simulation of manufacturing methods, which will in turn allow manufacturing considerations to be included much earlier in the system development cycle. Significant cost savings, increased quality, and decreased manufacturing cycle time are expected to result. This paper will give an overview of the NASA's Intelligent Synthesis Environment, the agency initiative to develop an AEE, with a focus on the anticipated benefits in aerospace manufacturing.

Development of a Direct Evaporator for the Organic Rankine Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donna Post Guillen; Helge Klockow; Matthew Lehar

2011-02-01

This paper describes research and development currently underway to place the evaporator of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) system directly in the path of a hot exhaust stream produced by a gas turbine engine. The main goal of this research effort is to improve cycle efficiency and cost by eliminating the usual secondary heat transfer loop. The project’s technical objective is to eliminate the pumps, heat exchangers and all other added cost and complexity of the secondary loop by developing an evaporator that resides in the waste heat stream, yet virtually eliminates the risk of a working fluid leakage intomore » the gaseous exhaust stream. The research team comprised of Idaho National Laboratory and General Electric Company engineers leverages previous research in advanced ORC technology to develop a new direct evaporator design that will reduce the ORC system cost by up to 15%, enabling the rapid adoption of ORCs for waste heat recovery.« less

Hospital esophagectomy volume and postoperative length of stay: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Giwa, Femi; Salami, Aitua; Abioye, Ajibola I

2018-01-01

Much attention in the volume-outcomes literature has focused on the empirical impact of surgical caseload on outcomes. However, relevant studies on the association between surgical volume and variables that potentially contribute to healthcare costs are limited. The objective of this study was to systematically elucidate a contemporary analysis of the empirical relationship between hospital esophagectomy volume and postoperative length of stay, a cost-related outcome. OvidSP, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), ISI Web of Science and OpenGrey were searched for relevant articles published from 2000 to 2016. High hospital esophagectomy volume was associated with reduced postoperative length of stay (mean: 3 days; 95%CI: 2.8, 3.2) and risk of prolonged length of stay (RR: 0.80, 95%CI: 0.74, 0.87) in a dose-response fashion. Complex surgeries performed at high surgical volume centers may be associated with overall decrease in postoperative length of stay, a cost-related outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness of Statins for Primary Cardiovascular Prevention in Chronic Kidney Disease

PubMed Central

Erickson, Kevin F.; Japa, Sohan; Owens, Douglas K.; Chertow, Glenn M.; Garber, Alan M.; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.

2013-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of statins for primary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Background Patients with CKD have an elevated risk of MI and stroke. Although HMG Co-A reductase inhibitors (“statins”) may prevent cardiovascular events in patients with non-dialysis-requiring CKD, adverse drug effects and competing risks could materially influence net effects and clinical decision-making. Methods We developed a decision-analytic model of CKD and cardiovascular disease (CVD) to determine the cost-effectiveness of low-cost generic statins for primary CVD prevention in men and women with hypertension and mild-to-moderate CKD. Outcomes included MI and stroke rates, discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs (2010 USD), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results For 65 year-old men with moderate hypertension and mild-to-moderate CKD, statins reduced the combined rate of MI and stroke, yielded 0.10 QALYs, and increased costs by $1,800 ($18,000 per QALY gained). For patients with lower baseline cardiovascular risks, health and economic benefits were smaller; for 65 year-old women, statins yielded 0.06 QALYs and increased costs by $1,900 ($33,400 per QALY gained). Results were sensitive to rates of rhabdomyolysis and drug costs. Statins are less cost-effective when obtained at average retail prices, particularly in patients at lower CVD risk. Conclusions While statins reduce absolute CVD risk in patients with CKD, increased risk of rhabdomyolysis, and competing risks associated with progressive CKD, partly offset these gains. Low-cost generic statins appear cost-effective for primary prevention of CVD in patients with mild-to-moderate CKD and hypertension. PMID:23500327

Cost-effectiveness of dabigatran for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Shah, Shimoli V; Gage, Brian F

2011-06-07

Recent studies have investigated alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but whether these alternatives are cost-effective is unknown. On the basis of the results from Randomized Evaluation of Long Term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) and other trials, we developed a decision-analysis model to compare the cost and quality-adjusted survival of various antithrombotic therapies. We ran our Markov model in a hypothetical cohort of 70-year-old patients with AF using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $50 000/quality-adjusted life-year. We estimated the cost of dabigatran as US $9 a day. For a patient with an average risk of major hemorrhage (≈3%/y), the most cost-effective therapy depended on stroke risk. For patients with the lowest stroke rate (CHADS2 stroke score of 0), only aspirin was cost-effective. For patients with a moderate stroke rate (CHADS2 score of 1 or 2), warfarin was cost-effective unless the risk of hemorrhage was high or quality of international normalized ratio control was poor (time in the therapeutic range <57.1%). For patients with a high stroke risk (CHADS(2) stroke score ≥3), dabigatran 150 mg (twice daily) was cost-effective unless international normalized ratio control was excellent (time in the therapeutic range >72.6%). Neither dabigatran 110 mg nor dual therapy (aspirin and clopidogrel) was cost-effective. Dabigatran 150 mg (twice daily) was cost-effective in AF populations at high risk of hemorrhage or high risk of stroke unless international normalized ratio control with warfarin was excellent. Warfarin was cost-effective in moderate-risk AF populations unless international normalized ratio control was poor.

Cost-effectiveness of statins for primary cardiovascular prevention in chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Erickson, Kevin F; Japa, Sohan; Owens, Douglas K; Chertow, Glenn M; Garber, Alan M; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2013-03-26

The authors sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of statins for primary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients with CKD have an elevated risk of MI and stroke. Although HMG Co-A reductase inhibitors (“statins”) may prevent cardiovascular events in patients with non–dialysis-requiring CKD, adverse drug effects and competing risks could materially influence net effects and clinical decision-making. We developed a decision-analytic model of CKD and cardiovascular disease (CVD) to determine the cost-effectiveness of low-cost generic statins for primary CVD prevention in men and women with hypertension and mild-to-moderate CKD. Outcomes included MI and stroke rates, discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs (2010 USD), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. For 65-year-old men with moderate hypertension and mild-to-moderate CKD, statins reduced the combined rate of MI and stroke, yielded 0.10 QALYs, and increased costs by $1,800 ($18,000 per QALY gained). For patients with lower baseline cardiovascular risks, health and economic benefits were smaller; for 65-year-old women, statins yielded 0.06 QALYs and increased costs by $1,900 ($33,400 per QALY gained). Results were sensitive to rates of rhabdomyolysis and drug costs. Statins are less cost-effective when obtained at average retail prices, particularly in patients at lower CVD risk. Although statins reduce absolute CVD risk in patients with CKD, the increased risk of rhabdomyolysis, and competing risks associated with progressive CKD, partly offset these gains. Low-cost generic statins appear cost-effective for primary prevention of CVD in patients with mild-to-moderate CKD and hypertension.

Statin cost-effectiveness in the United States for people at different vascular risk levels.

PubMed

2009-03-01

Statins reduce the rates of heart attacks, strokes, and revascularization procedures (ie, major vascular events) in a wide range of circumstances. Randomized controlled trial data from 20,536 adults have been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of prescribing statin therapy in the United States for people at different levels of vascular disease risk and to explore whether wider use of generic statins beyond the populations currently recommended for treatment in clinical guidelines is indicated. Randomized controlled trial data, an internally validated vascular disease model, and US costs of statin therapy and other medical care were used to project lifetime risks of vascular events and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 40 mg simvastatin daily. For an average of 5 years, allocation to simvastatin reduced the estimated US costs of hospitalizations for vascular events by approximately 20% (95% CI, 15 to 24) in the different subcategories of participants studied. At a daily cost of $1 for 40 mg generic simvastatin, the estimated costs of preventing a vascular death within the 5-year study period ranged from a net saving of $1300 (95% CI, $15,600 saving to $13,200 cost) among participants with a 42% 5-year major vascular event risk to a net cost of $216,500 ($123,700 to $460,000 cost) among those with a 12% 5-year risk. The costs per life year gained with lifetime simvastatin treatment ranged from $2500 (-$40 to $3820) in people aged 40 to 49 years with a 42% 5-year major vascular event risk to $10,990 ($9430 to $14,700) in people aged 70 years and older with a 12% 5-year risk. Treatment with generic simvastatin appears to be cost-effective for a much wider population in the United States than that recommended by current guidelines.

Joint histogram-based cost aggregation for stereo matching.

PubMed

Min, Dongbo; Lu, Jiangbo; Do, Minh N

2013-10-01

This paper presents a novel method for performing efficient cost aggregation in stereo matching. The cost aggregation problem is reformulated from the perspective of a histogram, giving us the potential to reduce the complexity of the cost aggregation in stereo matching significantly. Differently from previous methods which have tried to reduce the complexity in terms of the size of an image and a matching window, our approach focuses on reducing the computational redundancy that exists among the search range, caused by a repeated filtering for all the hypotheses. Moreover, we also reduce the complexity of the window-based filtering through an efficient sampling scheme inside the matching window. The tradeoff between accuracy and complexity is extensively investigated by varying the parameters used in the proposed method. Experimental results show that the proposed method provides high-quality disparity maps with low complexity and outperforms existing local methods. This paper also provides new insights into complexity-constrained stereo-matching algorithm design.

Seasonal fecundity and costs to λ are more strongly affected by direct than indirect predation effects across species

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaManna, Joseph A.; Martin, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Increased perceived predation risk can cause behavioral and physiological responses to reduce direct predation mortality, but these responses can also cause demographic costs through reduced reproductive output. Such indirect costs of predation risk have received increased attention in recent years, but the relative importance of direct vs. indirect predation costs to population growth (λ) across species remains unclear. We measured direct nest predation rates as well as indirect benefits (i.e., reduced predation rates) and costs (i.e., decreased reproductive output) arising from parental responses to perceived offspring predation risk for 10 songbird species breeding along natural gradients in nest predation risk. We show that reductions in seasonal fecundity from behavioral responses to perceived predation risk represent significant demographic costs for six of the 10 species. However, demographic costs from these indirect predation effects on seasonal fecundity comprised only 12% of cumulative predation costs averaged across species. In contrast, costs from direct predation mortality comprised 88% of cumulative predation costs averaged across species. Demographic costs from direct offspring predation were relatively more important for species with higher within-season residual-reproductive value (i.e., multiple-brooded species) than for species with lower residual-reproductive value (i.e., single-brooded species). Costs from indirect predation effects were significant across single- but not multiple-brooded species. Ultimately, demographic costs from behavioral responses to offspring predation risk differed among species as a function of their life-history strategies. Yet direct predation mortality generally wielded a stronger influence than indirect effects on seasonal fecundity and projected λ across species.

Adaptive Transmission Planning: Implementing a New Paradigm for Managing Economic Risks in Grid Expansion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hobbs, Benjamin F.; Xu, Qingyu; Ho, Jonathan

The problem of whether, where, when, and what types of transmission facilities to build in terms of minimizing costs and maximizing net economic benefits has been a challenge for the power industry from the beginning-ever since Thomas Edison debated whether to create longer dc distribution lines (with their high losses) or build new power stations in expanding his urban markets. Today's planning decisions are far more complex, as grids cover the continent and new transmission, generation, and demand-side technologies emerge.

Pressure ulcer prevention in frail older people.

PubMed

Barry, Maree; Nugent, Linda

2015-12-16

Pressure ulcers are painful and cause discomfort, have a negative effect on quality of life, and are costly to treat. The incidence and severity of preventable pressure ulcers is an important indicator of quality of care; it is essential that healthcare providers monitor prevalence and incidence rates to ensure that care strategies implemented are effective. Frail older people are at increased risk of developing pressure ulcers. This article discusses the complexities of preventing pressure ulcers in frail older people and emphasises the importance of structured educational programmes that incorporate effective clinical leadership and multidisciplinary teamwork.

SMART-FDIR: Use of Artificial Intelligence in the Implementation of a Satellite FDIR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guiotto, A.; Martelli, A.; Paccagnini, C.

Nowadays space activities are characterized by increased constraints in terms of on-board computing power and functional complexity combined with reduction of costs and schedule. This scenario necessarily originates impacts on the on-board software with particular emphases to the interfaces between on-board software and system/mission level requirements. The questions are: How can the effectiveness of Space System Software design be improved? How can we increase sophistication in the area of autonomy and failure tolerance, maintaining the necessary quality with acceptable risks?

MEOSAR Cost Escalation Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-25

CMA, of Directorate of Costing Services, (D Cost S), requested DRDC CORA’s assistance with determining the cost escalation risk for the Medium Earth...Orbit Search and Rescue (MEOSAR) project. Following a project meeting on 12 February 2014, Mr. Iburg provided us with subject matter expert(s) (SME) cost

Hepatitis C - Assessment to Treatment Trial (HepCATT) in primary care: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Roberts, Kirsty; Macleod, John; Metcalfe, Chris; Simon, Joanne; Horwood, Jeremy; Hollingworth, William; Marlowe, Sharon; Gordon, Fiona H; Muir, Peter; Coleman, Barbara; Vickerman, Peter; Harrison, Graham I; Waldron, Cherry-Ann; Irving, William; Hickman, Matthew

2016-07-29

Public Health England (PHE) estimates that there are upwards of 160,000 individuals in England and Wales with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, but until now only around 100,000 laboratory diagnoses have been reported to PHE and of these 28,000 have been treated. Targeted case-finding in primary care is estimated to be cost-effective; however, there has been no robust randomised controlled trial evidence available of specific interventions. Therefore, this study aims to develop and conduct a complex intervention within primary care and to evaluate this approach using a cluster randomised controlled trial. A total of 46 general practices in South West England will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either a complex intervention comprising: educational training on HCV for the practice; poster and leaflet display in the practice waiting rooms to raise awareness and encourage opportunistic testing; a HCV risk prediction algorithm based on information on possible risk markers in the electronic patient record run using Audit + software (BMJ Informatica). The audit will then be used to recall and offer patients a HCV test. Control practices will follow usual care. The effectiveness of the intervention will be measured by comparing number and rates of HCV testing, the number and proportion of patients testing positive, onward referral, rates of specialist assessment and treatment in control and intervention practices. Intervention costs and health service utilisation will be recorded to estimate the NHS cost per new HCV diagnosis and new HCV patient initiating treatment. Longer-term cost-effectiveness of the intervention in improving quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) will be extrapolated using a pre-existing dynamic health economic model. Patients' and health care workers' experiences and acceptability of the intervention will be explored through semi-structured qualitative interviews. This trial has the potential to make an important impact on patient care and will provide high-quality evidence to help general practitioners make important decisions on HCV testing and onward referral. If found to be effective and cost-effective the intervention is readily scalable and can be used to support the implementation of NICE recommendations on HCV case-finding. ISRCTN61788850 . Registered on 24 April 2015; Protocol Version: 2.0, 22 May 2015.

Financial analysis of revision knee surgery based on NHS tariffs and hospital costs: does it pay to provide a revision service?

PubMed

Kallala, R F; Vanhegan, I S; Ibrahim, M S; Sarmah, S; Haddad, F S

2015-02-01

Revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a complex procedure which carries both a greater risk for patients and greater cost for the treating hospital than does a primary TKA. As well as the increased cost of peri-operative investigations, blood transfusions, surgical instrumentation, implants and operating time, there is a well-documented increased length of stay which accounts for most of the actual costs associated with surgery. We compared revision surgery for infection with revision for other causes (pain, instability, aseptic loosening and fracture). Complete clinical, demographic and economic data were obtained for 168 consecutive revision TKAs performed at a tertiary referral centre between 2005 and 2012. Revision surgery for infection was associated with a mean length of stay more than double that of aseptic cases (21.5 vs 9.5 days, p < 0.0001). The mean cost of a revision for infection was more than three times that of an aseptic revision (£30 011 (sd 4514) vs £9655 (sd 599.7), p < 0.0001). Current NHS tariffs do not fully reimburse the increased costs of providing a revision knee surgery service. Moreover, especially as greater costs are incurred for infected cases. These losses may adversely affect the provision of revision surgery in the NHS. ©2015 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

PubMed

Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

2017-07-01

Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

PubMed

Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

2017-07-01

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses. Addressing the pressing questions in risk effects research, including how, to what extent and on what scale they occur, requires leveraging the advantages of the many methods available to characterize risk while minimizing the confusion caused by variability in their application. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Risk transfer modeling among hierarchically associated stakeholders in development of space systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henkle, Thomas Grove, III

Research develops an empirically derived cardinal model that prescribes handling and transfer of risks between organizations with hierarchical relationships. Descriptions of mission risk events, risk attitudes, and conditions for risk transfer are determined for client and underwriting entities associated with acquisition, production, and deployment of space systems. The hypothesis anticipates that large client organizations should be able to assume larger dollar-value risks of a program in comparison to smaller organizations even though many current risk transfer arrangements via space insurance violate this hypothesis. A literature survey covers conventional and current risk assessment methods, current techniques used in the satellite industry for complex system development, cardinal risk modeling, and relevant aspects of utility theory. Data gathered from open literature on demonstrated launch vehicle and satellite in-orbit reliability, annual space insurance premiums and losses, and ground fatalities and range damage associated with satellite launch activities are presented. Empirically derived models are developed for risk attitudes of space system clients and third-party underwriters associated with satellite system development and deployment. Two application topics for risk transfer are examined: the client-underwriter relationship on assumption or transfer of risks associated with first-year mission success, and statutory risk transfer agreements between space insurance underwriters and the US government to promote growth in both commercial client and underwriting industries. Results indicate that client entities with wealth of at least an order of magnitude above satellite project costs should retain risks to first-year mission success despite present trends. Furthermore, large client entities such as the US government should never pursue risk transfer via insurance under previously demonstrated probabilities of mission success; potential savings may reasonably exceed multiple tens of $millions per space project. Additional results indicate that current US government statutory arrangements on risk sharing with underwriting entities appears reasonable with respect to stated objectives. This research combines aspects of multiple disciplines to include risk management, decision theory, utility theory, and systems architecting. It also demonstrates development of a more general theory on prescribing risk transfer criteria between distinct, but hierarchically associated entities involved in complex system development with applicability to a variety of technical domains.

Decision Making in Health and Medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunink, Myriam; Glasziou, Paul; Siegel, Joanna; Weeks, Jane; Pliskin, Joseph; Elstein, Arthur; Weinstein, Milton C.

2001-11-01

Decision making in health care means navigating through a complex and tangled web of diagnostic and therapeutic uncertainties, patient preferences and values, and costs. In addition, medical therapies may include side effects, surgery may lead to undesirable complications, and diagnostic technologies may produce inconclusive results. In many clinical and health policy decisions it is necessary to counterbalance benefits and risks, and to trade off competing objectives such as maximizing life expectancy vs optimizing quality of life vs minimizing the required resources. This textbook plots a clear course through these complex and conflicting variables. It clearly explains and illustrates tools for integrating quantitative evidence-based data and subjective outcome values in making clinical and health policy decisions. An accompanying CD-ROM features solutions to the exercises, PowerPoint® presentations of the illustrations, and sample models and tables.

Nine steps to risk-informed wellhead protection and management: Methods and application to the Burgberg Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, W.; Enzenhoefer, R.; Bunk, T.

2013-12-01

Wellhead protection zones are commonly delineated via advective travel time analysis without considering any aspects of model uncertainty. In the past decade, research efforts produced quantifiable risk-based safety margins for protection zones. They are based on well vulnerability criteria (e.g., travel times, exposure times, peak concentrations) cast into a probabilistic setting, i.e., they consider model and parameter uncertainty. Practitioners still refrain from applying these new techniques for mainly three reasons. (1) They fear the possibly cost-intensive additional areal demand of probabilistic safety margins, (2) probabilistic approaches are allegedly complex, not readily available, and consume huge computing resources, and (3) uncertainty bounds are fuzzy, whereas final decisions are binary. The primary goal of this study is to show that these reservations are unjustified. We present a straightforward and computationally affordable framework based on a novel combination of well-known tools (e.g., MODFLOW, PEST, Monte Carlo). This framework provides risk-informed decision support for robust and transparent wellhead delineation under uncertainty. Thus, probabilistic risk-informed wellhead protection is possible with methods readily available for practitioners. As vivid proof of concept, we illustrate our key points on a pumped karstic well catchment, located in Germany. In the case study, we show that reliability levels can be increased by re-allocating the existing delineated area at no increase in delineated area. This is achieved by simply swapping delineated low-risk areas against previously non-delineated high-risk areas. Also, we show that further improvements may often be available at only low additional delineation area. Depending on the context, increases or reductions of delineated area directly translate to costs and benefits, if the land is priced, or if land owners need to be compensated for land use restrictions.

Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

2004-01-01

A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Partnership working between the Fire Service and NHS: delivering a cost-saving service to improve the safety of high-risk people.

PubMed

Craig, Joyce A; Creegan, Shelagh; Tait, Martin; Dolan, Donna

2015-04-14

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and NHS Tayside piloted partnership working. A Community Fire Safety Link Worker provided Risk Assessments to adults, identified by community health teams, at high risk of fires, with the aim of reducing fires. An existing evaluation shows the Service developed a culture of 'high trust' between partners and had high client satisfaction. This paper reports on an economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role. An economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role was undertaken. Changes in the Risk Assessment score following delivery of the Service were used to estimate the potential fires avoided. These were valued using a national cost of a fire. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was deducted from these savings. The pilot was estimated to save 4.4 fires, equivalent to £286 per client. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was £55 per client, giving net savings of £231 per client. The pilot was cost-saving under all scenarios, with results sensitive to the probability of a fire. We believe this is the first evaluation of Fire Safety Risk Assessments. Partnership working, delivering joint Risk Assessments in the homes of people at high risk of fire, is modelled to be cost saving. Uncertainties in data and small sample are key limitations. Further research is required into the ex ante risk of fire by risk category. Despite these limitations, potential savings identified in this study supports greater adoption of this partnership initiative.

[The economics of preventing psycho-social risks].

PubMed

Golzio, Luigi

2014-01-01

The aim of the essay is to show the SHIELD methodology for helping the firm management to improve the risks prevention policy. It has been tested in the field with positive results. SHIELD is a cost-benefit analysis application to compare prevention and non-prevention costs, which arise from non-market risks. In the economic perspective safety risks (which include psycho-social risks) are non-market ones as they cause injures to workers during the job. SHIELD (Social Health Indicators for Economic Labour Decisions), is the original method proposed by the author. It is a cost benefits analysis application, which compares safety prevention and non-prevention costs. The comparison allow stop management to evaluate the efficiency of the current safety prevention policy as it helps top management to answer to the policy question: how much to invest in prevention costs? The costs comparison is obtained through the reclassification of safety costs between prevention and non-prevention costs (which are composed by claim damages and penalty sanction costs). SHIELD has been tested empirically in four companies operating in the agribusiness sector during a research financed by the Assessorato all'Agricoltura and INAI Regionale of Emilia Romagna Region. Results are postive: it has been found that the increase of prevention costs causes the cut of non-prevention costs in all companies looked into, as assumed by the high reliability organization theory. SHIELD can be applied to all companies which must have an accounting system by law, no matter of the industry they act. Its application has limited costs as SHIELD doesn't need changes in the accounting system. Safety costs sustained by the company are simply reclassified in prevention and non-prevention costs. The comparison of these two costs categories has been appreciated by top management of companies investigated as a useful support to decide the risks prevention policy for the company. The SHIELD original feature compared with others cost benefit analysis application is to compute registered costs in the company accounting system.

Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Susanna D.

As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

The Cost-Effectiveness of High-Risk Lung Cancer Screening and Drivers of Program Efficiency.

PubMed

Cressman, Sonya; Peacock, Stuart J; Tammemägi, Martin C; Evans, William K; Leighl, Natasha B; Goffin, John R; Tremblay, Alain; Liu, Geoffrey; Manos, Daria; MacEachern, Paul; Bhatia, Rick; Puksa, Serge; Nicholas, Garth; McWilliams, Annette; Mayo, John R; Yee, John; English, John C; Pataky, Reka; McPherson, Emily; Atkar-Khattra, Sukhinder; Johnston, Michael R; Schmidt, Heidi; Shepherd, Frances A; Soghrati, Kam; Amjadi, Kayvan; Burrowes, Paul; Couture, Christian; Sekhon, Harmanjatinder S; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; Goss, Glenwood; Ionescu, Diana N; Hwang, David M; Martel, Simon; Sin, Don D; Tan, Wan C; Urbanski, Stefan; Xu, Zhaolin; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Lam, Stephen

2017-08-01

Lung cancer risk prediction models have the potential to make programs more affordable; however, the economic evidence is limited. Participants in the National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST) were retrospectively identified with the risk prediction tool developed from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. The high-risk subgroup was assessed for lung cancer incidence and demographic characteristics compared with those in the low-risk subgroup and the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study (PanCan), which is an observational study that was high-risk-selected in Canada. A comparison of high-risk screening versus standard care was made with a decision-analytic model using data from the NLST with Canadian cost data from screening and treatment in the PanCan study. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess uncertainty and identify drivers of program efficiency. Use of the risk prediction tool developed from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial with a threshold set at 2% over 6 years would have reduced the number of individuals who needed to be screened in the NLST by 81%. High-risk screening participants in the NLST had more adverse demographic characteristics than their counterparts in the PanCan study. High-risk screening would cost $20,724 (in 2015 Canadian dollars) per quality-adjusted life-year gained and would be considered cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 in Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained with a probability of 0.62. Cost-effectiveness was driven primarily by non-lung cancer outcomes. Higher noncurative drug costs or current costs for immunotherapy and targeted therapies in the United States would render lung cancer screening a cost-saving intervention. Non-lung cancer outcomes drive screening efficiency in diverse, tobacco-exposed populations. Use of risk selection can reduce the budget impact, and screening may even offer cost savings if noncurative treatment costs continue to rise. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Setting up low-risk bone marrow transplantation for children with thalassemia may facilitate pediatric cancer care.

PubMed

Faulkner, Lawrence B

2013-07-01

In many South Asian countries there is shortage of centers providing care for pediatric malignancies. This report describes the experience of the Cure2Children Foundation (C2C) in supporting, both financially and professionally, the startup of two bone marrow transplant (BMT) centers, one in Pakistan and one in India, for the cure of transfusion-dependent thalassemia. Even though transplantation is generally considered as a more complex and advanced step relatively to basic pediatric cancer care, the authors argue that BMT for low-risk thalassemia patients with a matched sibling is a relatively simple procedure amenable to focused training. Since 2008 the C2C, an Italian Nongovernmental Organization (NGO), has supported a BMT network in Pakistan. The primary aim of this project was to assess feasibility, outcomes, and costs of matched-related BMT for thalassemia in young low-risk children employing a well established and quite tolerable strategy employed in Italy. This initiative relied primarily on focused training and task-shift strategies within a structured cooperation program. The initial success of that strategy led to its replication in India with 100 total BMTs performed over the past 4 years, 91 of which were for thalassemia major. Low-risk matched-related BMT in children younger than 5 years could deliver a 92% thalassemia-free survival with 100% performance score and no extensive chronic graft versus host disease (GVHD), for an average cost of 10,000 USD per BMT. Within an existing hospital facility, 50,000 USD were sufficient to renovate and fully equip a 2-3 bedded start up BMT unit capable of performing safe low-risk compatible marrow transplantation. In low resource settings matched-related low-risk BMT for thalassemia can be performed with outcomes comparable to richer countries and with a fraction of the costs. Within structured and intensive cooperation, good outcomes can be obtained from the very beginning. This observation may have important implications to increase access to cure for both nonmalignant and malignant.

Why projects often fail even with high cost contingencies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kujawski, Edouard

2002-02-28

In this note we assume that the individual risks have been adequately quantified and the total project cost contingency adequately computed to ensure an agreed-to probability or confidence level that the total project cost estimate will not be exceeded. But even projects that implement such a process are likely to result in significant cost overruns and/or project failure if the project manager allocates the contingencies to the individual subsystems. The intuitive and mathematically valid solution is to maintain a project-wide contingency and to distribute it to the individual risks on an as-needed basis. Such an approach ensures cost-efficient risk management,more » and projects that implement it are more likely to succeed and to cost less. We illustrate these ideas using a simplified project with two independent risks. The formulation can readily be extended to multiple risks.« less

Medication Reconciliation and Therapy Management in Dialysis-Dependent Patients: Need for a Systematic Approach

PubMed Central

Cardone, Katie E.; Manley, Harold J.; St. Peter, Wendy L.; Shaffer, Rachel; Somers, Michael; Mehrotra, Rajnish

2013-01-01

Summary Patients with ESRD undergoing dialysis have highly complex medication regimens and disproportionately higher total cost of care compared with the general Medicare population. As shown by several studies, dialysis-dependent patients are at especially high risk for medication-related problems. Providing medication reconciliation and therapy management services is critically important to avoid costs associated with medication-related problems, such as adverse drug events and hospitalizations in the ESRD population. The Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 included an unfunded mandate stipulating that medication therapy management be offered to high-risk patients enrolled in Medicare Part D. Medication management services are distinct from the dispensing of medications and involve a complete medication review for all disease states. The dialysis facility is a logical coordination center for medication management services, like medication therapy management, and it is likely the first health care facility that a patient will present to after a care transition. A dedicated and adequately trained clinician, such as a pharmacist, is needed to provide consistent, high-quality medication management services. Medication reconciliation and medication management services that could consistently and systematically identify and resolve medication-related problems would be likely to improve ESRD patient outcomes and reduce total cost of care. Herein, this work provides a review of available evidence and recommendations for optimal delivery of medication management services to ESRD patients in a dialysis facility-centered model. PMID:23990162

A simulator for surgery training: optimal sensory stimuli in a bone pinning simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daenzer, Stefan; Fritzsche, Klaus

2008-03-01

Currently available low cost haptic devices allow inexpensive surgical training with no risk to patients. Major drawbacks of lower cost devices include limited maximum feedback force and the incapability to expose occurring moments. Aim of this work was the design and implementation of a surgical simulator that allows the evaluation of multi-sensory stimuli in order to overcome the occurring drawbacks. The simulator was built following a modular architecture to allow flexible combinations and thorough evaluation of different multi-sensory feedback modules. A Kirschner-Wire (K-Wire) tibial fracture fixation procedure was defined and implemented as a first test scenario. A set of computational metrics has been derived from the clinical requirements of the task to objectively assess the trainees performance during simulation. Sensory feedback modules for haptic and visual feedback have been developed, each in a basic and additionally in an enhanced form. First tests have shown that specific visual concepts can overcome some of the drawbacks coming along with low cost haptic devices. The simulator, the metrics and the surgery scenario together represent an important step towards a better understanding of the perception of multi-sensory feedback in complex surgical training tasks. Field studies on top of the architecture can open the way to risk-less and inexpensive surgical simulations that can keep up with traditional surgical training.

Remedial Action Assessment System: A computer-based methodology for conducting feasibility studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, M.K.; Buelt, J.L.; Stottlemyre, J.A.

1991-02-01

Because of the complexity and number of potential waste sites facing the US Department of Energy (DOE) for potential cleanup, DOE is supporting the development of a computer-based methodology to streamline the remedial investigation/feasibility study process. The Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS), can be used for screening, linking, and evaluating established technology processes in support of conducting feasibility studies. It is also intended to do the same in support of corrective measures studies. The user interface employs menus, windows, help features, and graphical information while RAAS is in operation. Object-oriented programming is used to link unit processes into sets ofmore » compatible processes that form appropriate remedial alternatives. Once the remedial alternatives are formed, the RAAS methodology can evaluate them in terms of effectiveness, implementability, and cost. RAAS will access a user-selected risk assessment code to determine the reduction of risk after remedial action by each recommended alternative. The methodology will also help determine the implementability of the remedial alternatives at a site and access cost estimating tools to provide estimates of capital, operating, and maintenance costs. This paper presents the characteristics of two RAAS prototypes currently being developed. These include the RAAS Technology Information System, which accesses graphical, tabular and textual information about technologies, and the main RAAS methodology, which screens, links, and evaluates remedial technologies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less

Defense Department Profit and Contract Finance Policies and Their Effects on Contract and Contractor Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

liabilities (e.g., accounts payable). This ratio can be compared to the firm’s weighted average cost of capital ( WACC ). WACC is the cost of debt plus the cost...RatioCost of Debt Marginal Tax Rate Risk-Free Rate Cost of Equity Risk Premium Industry Beta WACC Technical Risk CPFF/CPAF …. FFP/ MYP - Contract Choice...estimates the levered WACC as the discount rate, and finally calculates the NPV of the contract. Specific model input includes profit policy levers

78 FR 67847 - Debt Collection (Regulation F)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-12

... disclosures to assist consumers in understanding the costs, benefits, and risks associated with consumer... to understand the costs, benefits, and risks associated with the product or service in light of the... communications about the risks, costs, and benefits of consumer financial products or services.'' \\40\\ The Bureau...

Introduced and invasive species in novel rangeland ecosystems: friends or foes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Ludwig, John A.; Wilcox, Bradford P.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Dean, W. Richard J.; Hoffmann, Benjamin D.; Milton, Sue J.

2012-01-01

Globally, new combinations of introduced and native plant and animal species have changed rangelands into novel ecosystems. Whereas many rangeland stakeholders (people who use or have an interest in rangelands) view intentional species introductions to improve forage and control erosion as beneficial, others focus on unintended costs, such as increased fire risk, loss of rangeland biodiversity, and threats to conservation efforts, specifically in nature reserves and parks. These conflicting views challenge all rangeland stakeholders, especially those making decisions on how best to manage novel ecosystems. To formulate a conceptual framework for decision making, we examined a wide range of novel ecosystems, created by intentional and unintentional introductions of nonnative species and land-use–facilitated spread of native ones. This framework simply divides decision making into two types: 1) straightforward–certain, and 2) complex–uncertain. We argue that management decisions to retain novel ecosystems are certain when goods and services provided by the system far outweigh the costs of restoration, for example in the case of intensively managed Cenchrus pastures. Decisions to return novel ecosystems to natural systems are also certain when the value of the system is low and restoration is easy and inexpensive as in the case of biocontrol of Opuntia infestations. In contrast, decisions whether to retain or restore novel ecosystems become complex and uncertain in cases where benefits are low and costs of control are high as, for example, in the case of stopping the expansion of Prosopis and Juniperus into semiarid rangelands. Decisions to retain or restore novel ecosystems are also complex and uncertain when, for example, nonnative Eucalyptus trees expand along natural streams, negatively affecting biodiversity, but also providing timber and honey. When decision making is complex and uncertain, we suggest that rangeland managers utilize cost–benefit analyses and hold stakeholder workshops to resolve conflicts.

Costing in Radiology and Health Care: Rationale, Relativity, Rudiments, and Realities.

PubMed

Rubin, Geoffrey D

2017-02-01

Costs direct decisions that influence the effectiveness of radiology in the care of patients on a daily basis. Yet many radiologists struggle to harness the power of cost measurement and cost management as a critical path toward establishing their value in patient care. When radiologists cannot articulate their value, they risk losing control over how imaging is delivered and supported. In the United States, recent payment trends directing value-based payments for bundles of care advance the imperative for radiology providers to articulate their value. This begins with the development of an understanding of the providers' own costs, as well as the complex interrelationships and imaging-associated costs of other participants across the imaging value chain. Controlling the costs of imaging necessitates understanding them at a procedural level and quantifying the costs of delivering specific imaging services. Effective product-level costing is dependent on a bottom-up approach, which is supported through recent innovations in time-dependent activity-based costing. Once the costs are understood, they can be managed. Within the high fixed cost and high overhead cost environment of health care provider organizations, stakeholders must understand the implications of misaligned top-down cost management approaches that can both paradoxically shift effort from low-cost workers to much costlier professionals and allocate overhead costs counterproductively. Radiology's engagement across a broad spectrum of care provides an excellent opportunity for radiology providers to take a leading role within the health care organizations to enhance value and margin through principled and effective cost management. Following a discussion of the rationale for measuring costs, this review contextualizes costs from the perspectives of a variety of stakeholders (relativity), discusses core concepts in how costs are classified (rudiments), presents common and improved methods for measuring costs in health care, and discusses how cost management strategies can either improve or hinder high-value health care (realities). © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Summary of Results from the Risk Management Program for the Mars Microrover Flight Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert; Matijevic, Jacob R.

2000-01-01

On 4 July 1997, the Mars Pathfinder landed on the surface of Mars carrying the first planetary rover, known as the Sojourner. Formally known as the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX), the Sojourner was a low cost, high-risk technology demonstration, in which new risk management techniques were tried. This paper summarizes the activities and results of the effort to conduct a low-cost, yet meaningful risk management program for the MFEX. The specific activities focused on cost, performance, schedule, and operations risks. Just as the systems engineering process was iterative and produced successive refinements of requirements, designs, etc., so was the risk management process. Qualitative risk assessments were performed first to gain some insights for refining the microrover design and operations concept. These then evolved into more quantitative analyses. Risk management lessons from the manager's perspective is presented for other low-cost, high-risk space missions.

Public Perceptions of Regulatory Costs, Their Uncertainty and Interindividual Distribution.

PubMed

Johnson, Branden B; Finkel, Adam M

2016-06-01

Public perceptions of both risks and regulatory costs shape rational regulatory choices. Despite decades of risk perception studies, this article is the first on regulatory cost perceptions. A survey of 744 U.S. residents probed: (1) How knowledgeable are laypeople about regulatory costs incurred to reduce risks? (2) Do laypeople see official estimates of cost and benefit (lives saved) as accurate? (3) (How) do preferences for hypothetical regulations change when mean-preserving spreads of uncertainty replace certain cost or benefit? and (4) (How) do preferences change when unequal interindividual distributions of hypothetical regulatory costs replace equal distributions? Respondents overestimated costs of regulatory compliance, while assuming agencies underestimate costs. Most assumed agency estimates of benefits are accurate; a third believed both cost and benefit estimates are accurate. Cost and benefit estimates presented without uncertainty were slightly preferred to those surrounded by "narrow uncertainty" (a range of costs or lives entirely within a personally-calibrated zone without clear acceptance or rejection of tradeoffs). Certain estimates were more preferred than "wide uncertainty" (a range of agency estimates extending beyond these personal bounds, thus posing a gamble between favored and unacceptable tradeoffs), particularly for costs as opposed to benefits (but even for costs a quarter of respondents preferred wide uncertainty to certainty). Agency-acknowledged uncertainty in general elicited mixed judgments of honesty and trustworthiness. People preferred egalitarian distributions of regulatory costs, despite skewed actual cost distributions, and preferred progressive cost distributions (the rich pay a greater than proportional share) to regressive ones. Efficient and socially responsive regulations require disclosure of much more information about regulatory costs and risks. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Extractive waste management: A risk analysis approach.

PubMed

Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio

2018-05-01

Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the relationship between planning and procurement in Western U.S. electric utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carvallo Bodelon, Juan Pablo; Sanstad, Alan H.; Larsen, Peter H.

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is an important regulatory process used in many U.S. states to formulate and evaluate least-cost and risk-assessed portfolios to meet future load requirements for electric utilities. In principle, effective implementation of IRP seeks to assure regulators and the public that utility investment decisions, given uncertainty, are as cost-effective as possible. However, to date, there is no empirical assessment on the effectiveness of IRP implementation. In this analysis, we compare planning, procurement processes and actual decisions for a sample of twelve load serving entities (LSEs) across the Western U. S. from 2003-2014. The 2008/2009 recession provides amore » unique “stress test” to the planning process and offers an excellent opportunity to trace how procurement decisions responded to this largely unforeseen event. In aggregate, there is a general alignment between planned and procured supply-side capacity. However, there are significant differences in the choice of supply-side resources and type of ownership for individual LSEs. We develop case studies for three LSEs and find that subsequent plans differ significantly due to changes in the planning environment and that procurement decisions in some cases are impacted by factors that are not accounted for in the planning process. Our results reveal that a limited amount of information produced during the long-term planning process (e.g., forecasts, methods, and least cost/risk portfolios) are ultimately used during the procurement process, and that the latter process relies extensively on the most recent information available for decision making. These findings suggest that states' IRP rules and regulations mandating long-term planning horizons with the same analytical complexity throughout the planning period may not create useful information for the procurement process. The social value of a long-term planning process that departs from procurement and the balance between transparency and complexity of the planning and procurement processes is an open question.« less

"Bending the cost curve" in gastroenterology.

PubMed

Slattery, E; Harewood, G C; Murray, F; Patchett, S

2013-12-01

Increasing attention is being focused on reigning in escalating costs of healthcare, i.e. trying to 'bend the cost curve'. In gastroenterology (GI), inpatient hospital care represents a major component of overall costs. This study aimed to characterize the trend in cost of care for GI-related hospitalizations in recent years and to identify the most costly diagnostic groups. All hospital inpatients admitted between January 2008 and December 2009 with a primary diagnosis of one of the six most common GI-related Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) in this hospital system were identified; all DRGs contained at least 40 patients during the study period. Patient Level Costing (PLC) was used to express the total cost of hospital care for each patient; PLC comprised a weighted daily bed cost plus cost of all medical services provided (e.g., radiology, pathology tests) calculated according to an activity-based costing approach; cost of medications were excluded. All costs were discounted to 2009 values. Mean length of stay (LOS) was also calculated for each DRG. Over 2 years, 470 patients were admitted with one of the six most common GI DRGs. Mean cost of care increased from 2008 to 2009 for all six DRGs with the steepest increases seen in 'GI hemorrhage (non-complex)' (31 % increase) and 'Cirrhosis/Alcoholic hepatitis (non-complex)' (45 % increase). No differences in readmission rates were observed over time. There was a strong correlation between year-to-year change in costs and change in mean LOS, r = 0.93. The cost of GI-related inpatient care appears to be increasing in recent years with the steepest increases observed in non-complex GI hemorrhage and non-complex Cirrhosis/Alcoholic hepatitis. Efforts to control the increasing costs should focus on these diagnostic categories.

Next Generation Grating Spectrometer Sounders for LEO and GEO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pagano, Thomas S.

2011-01-01

AIRS and MODIS are widely used for weather, climate, composition, carbon cycle, cross-calibration, and applications. The community asking for new capability in the 2020 timeframe, capabilities desired: (1) Hyperspectral UV to LWIR, High Spatial ?1km IFOV (2) Maximize Synergies of Solar Reflected and IR. Synergies with OCO-2. We expect more users and applications of next gen LEO IR Sounder than GEO. These include: weather, climate, GHG monitoring, aviation, disaster response. There is a new direction for imagers and sounders: (1) Separate Vis/NIR/SWIR from MWIR/LWIR instruments reduces technology risk and complexity. (2) Expect Costs to be lower than CrIS & VIIRS Some additional ideas to reduce costs include: (1) minimum set of requirements (2) mini-grating spectrometers. supports constellation for higher revisit (3) new technology to reduce instrument size (large format fpa's) (4) hosted payloads

Technology Requirements for Affordable Single-Stage Rocket Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, Douglas O.; Piland, William M.

2004-01-01

A number of manned Earth-to-orbit (ETO) vehicle options for replacing or complementing the current Space Transportation System are being examined under the Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS) study. The introduction of a reusable single-stage vehicle (SSV) into the U.S. launch vehicle fleet early in the next century could greatly reduce ETO launch costs. As a part of the AMLS study, the conceptual design of an SSV using a wide variety of enhancing technologies has recently been completed and is described in this paper. This paper also identifies the major enabling and enhancing technologies for a reusable rocket-powered SSV and provides examples of the mission payoff potential of a variety of important technologies. This paper also discusses the impact of technology advancements on vehicle margins, complexity, and risk, all of which influence the total system cost.

Future directions: Integrated resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, D. C.; Eto, J.

Integrated resource planning or IRP is the process for integrating supply- and demand-side resources to provide energy services at a cost that balances the interests of all stakeholders. It now is the resource planning process used by electric utilities in over 30 states. The goals of IRP have evolved from least cost planning and encouragement of demand-side management to broader, more complex issues including core competitive business activity, risk management and sharing, accounting for externalities, and fuel switching between gas and electricity. IRP processes are being extended to other interior regions of the country, to non-investor owned utilities, and to regional (rather than individual utility) planning bases, and to other fuels (natural gas). The comprehensive, multi-valued, and public reasoning characteristics of IRP could be extended to applications beyond energy, e.g., transportation, surface water management, and health care in ways suggested.

Should health authorities offer risk-sharing contracts to pharmaceutical firms? A theoretical approach.

PubMed

Antonanzas, Fernando; Juarez-Castello, Carmelo; Rodriguez-Ibeas, Roberto

2011-07-01

In this paper, we characterise the risk-sharing contracts that health authorities can design when they face a regulatory decision on drug pricing and reimbursement in a context of uncertainty. We focus on two types of contracts. On the one hand, the health authority can reimburse the firm for each treated patient regardless of health outcomes (non risk-sharing). Alternatively, the health authority can pay for the drug only when the patient is cured (risk-sharing contract). The optimal contract depends on the trade-off between the monitoring costs, the marginal production cost and the utility derived from treatment. A non-risk-sharing agreement will be preferred by the health authority, if patients who should not be treated impose a relatively low cost to the health system. When this cost is high, the health authority would prefer a risk-sharing agreement for relatively low monitoring costs.

Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

PubMed

Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

2009-09-16

This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer populations based on historic claims and diagnostic data. Initial validation results indicate that we can stratify enrollees with SUD diagnoses into different cost categories with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity, and the most challenging issue becomes one of policy. Due to the social stigma associated with the disease and ethical issues pertaining to access to care and individual versus societal benefit, a thoughtful dialogue needs to occur about the appropriate way to implement these technologies.

Establishing a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling.

PubMed

Hadorn, Daniela C; Racloz, Vanessa; Schwermer, Heinzpeter; Stärk, Katharina D C

2009-01-01

Vector-borne diseases pose a special challenge to veterinary authorities due to complex and time-consuming surveillance programs taking into account vector habitat. Using stochastic scenario tree modelling, each possible surveillance activity of a future surveillance system can be evaluated with regard to its sensitivity and the expected cost. The overall sensitivity of various potential surveillance systems, composed of different combinations of surveillance activities, is calculated and the proposed surveillance system is optimized with respect to the considered surveillance activities, the sensitivity and the cost. The objective of this project was to use stochastic scenario tree modelling in combination with a simple cost analysis in order to develop the national surveillance system for Bluetongue in Switzerland. This surveillance system was established due to the emerging outbreak of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in Northern Europe in 2006. Based on the modelling results, it was decided to implement an improved passive clinical surveillance in cattle and sheep through campaigns in order to increase disease awareness alongside a targeted bulk milk testing strategy in 200 dairy cattle herds located in high-risk areas. The estimated median probability of detection of cases (i.e. sensitivity) of the surveillance system in this combined approach was 96.4%. The evaluation of the prospective national surveillance system predicted that passive clinical surveillance in cattle would provide the highest probability to detect BTV-8 infected animals, followed by passive clinical surveillance in sheep and bulk milk testing of 200 dairy cattle farms in high-risk areas. This approach is also applicable in other countries and to other epidemic diseases.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for integrating MRI into breast cancer screening for women at high risk.

PubMed

Ahern, C H; Shih, Y-C T; Dong, W; Parmigiani, G; Shen, Y

2014-10-14

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for women at high risk for breast cancer. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies involving MRI. Using a microsimulation model, we generated life histories under different risk profiles, and assessed the impact of screening on quality-adjusted life-years, and lifetime costs, both discounted at 3%. We compared 12 screening strategies combining annual or biennial MRI with mammography and clinical breast examination (CBE) in intervals of 0.5, 1, or 2 years vs without, and reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Based on an ICER threshold of $100,000/QALY, the most cost-effective strategy for women at 25% lifetime risk was to stagger MRI and mammography plus CBE every year from age 30 to 74, yielding ICER $58,400 (compared to biennial MRI alone). At 50% lifetime risk and with 70% reduction in MRI cost, the recommended strategy was to stagger MRI and mammography plus CBE every 6 months (ICER=$84,400). At 75% lifetime risk, the recommended strategy is biennial MRI combined with mammography plus CBE every 6 months (ICER=$62,800). The high costs of MRI and its lower specificity are limiting factors for annual screening schedule of MRI, except for women at sufficiently high risk.

Health-based risk adjustment: is inpatient and outpatient diagnostic information sufficient?

PubMed

Lamers, L M

Adequate risk adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. Currently used risk adjusters based on demographic and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) do not reflect expected costs accurately. This study examines the simultaneous predictive accuracy of inpatient and outpatient morbidity measures and prior costs. DCGs, pharmacy cost groups (PCGs), and prior year's costs improve the predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially. DCGs and PCGs seem complementary in their ability to predict future costs. However, this study shows that the combination of DCGs and PCGs still leaves room for cream skimming.

Soil mercury levels in the area surrounding the Cerro Prieto geothermal complex, MEXICO.

PubMed

Pastrana-Corral, M A; Wakida, F T; García-Flores, E; Rodriguez-Mendivil, D D; Quiñonez-Plaza, A; Piñon-Colin, T D J

2016-08-01

Even though geothermal energy is a renewable energy source that is seen as cost-effective and environmentally friendly, emissions from geothermal plants can impact air, soil, and water in the vicinity of geothermal power plants. The Cerro Prieto geothermal complex is located 30 km southeast of the city of Mexicali in the Mexican state of Baja California. Its installed electricity generation capacity is 720 MW, being the largest geothermal complex in Mexico. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether the emissions generated by the geothermal complex have increased the soil mercury concentration in the surrounding areas. Fifty-four surface soil samples were collected from the perimeter up to an approximate distance of 7660 m from the complex. Additionally, four soil depth profiles were performed in the vicinity of the complex. Mercury concentration in 69 % of the samples was higher than the mercury concentration found at the baseline sites. The mercury concentration ranged from 0.01 to 0.26 mg/kg. Our results show that the activities of the geothermal complex have led to an accumulation of mercury in the soil of the surrounding area. More studies are needed to determine the risk to human health and the ecosystems in the study area.

42 CFR 423.336 - Risk-sharing arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... payments to a Part D sponsor subject to risk—(1) Adjusted allowable risk corridor costs. For purposes of this paragraph, the term adjusted allowable risk corridor costs means— (i) The allowable risk corridor... coverage year. (2) Establishment of risk corridors. (i) Risk corridors. For each year, CMS establishes a...

Cost effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs in geriatric outpatients.

PubMed

van der Velde, Nathalie; Meerding, Willen Jan; Looman, Caspar W; Pols, Huibert A P; van der Cammen, Tischa J M

2008-01-01

Withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs has been proven to be effective in older persons. However, given the enormous rise in healthcare costs in recent decades, the effect of such withdrawals on healthcare costs also needs to be considered. Within a common geriatric outpatient population, patients with a history of falls were assessed for falls risk (n = 139). Fall-risk-increasing drugs were withdrawn when appropriate (n = 75). All participants had a 2-month follow-up for fall incidents. The number of prevented falls was calculated using a loglinear regression model. The savings on health expenditures as a result of prevented injuries (estimated from a literature review) and reduced consumption of pharmaceuticals were compared with the intervention costs. After adjustment for confounders, drug withdrawal resulted in a falls risk reduction of 0.89 (95% CI 0.33, 0.98) per patient compared with the non-withdrawal group. Net cost savings were euro1691 (95% CI 662, 2181) per patient in the cohort. This resulted in a cost saving of euro491 (95% CI 465, 497) per prevented fall. Withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs generates significant cost savings. Extrapolation of these findings to a national scale results in an estimated reduction of euro60 million in healthcare expenditures, that is, 15% of fall-related health costs.

Thermodynamic cost of computation, algorithmic complexity and the information metric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zurek, W. H.

1989-01-01

Algorithmic complexity is discussed as a computational counterpart to the second law of thermodynamics. It is shown that algorithmic complexity, which is a measure of randomness, sets limits on the thermodynamic cost of computations and casts a new light on the limitations of Maxwell's demon. Algorithmic complexity can also be used to define distance between binary strings.

Intervention strategies to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases in Mexico: cost effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Natalie; Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Orozco, Ricardo; Mancuso, Anna; Hogan, Daniel R; Lee, Diana; Murakami, Yuki; Sridharan, Lakshmi; Medina-Mora, María Elena; González-Pier, Eduardo

2012-01-01

Objective To inform decision making regarding intervention strategies against non-communicable diseases in Mexico, in the context of health reform. Design Cost effectiveness analysis based on epidemiological modelling. Interventions 101 intervention strategies relating to nine major clusters of non-communicable disease: depression, heavy alcohol use, tobacco use, cataracts, breast cancer, cervical cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Data sources Mexican data sources were used for most key input parameters, including administrative registries; disease burden and population estimates; household surveys; and drug price databases. These sources were supplemented as needed with estimates for Mexico from the WHO-CHOICE unit cost database or with estimates extrapolated from the published literature. Main outcome measures Population health outcomes, measured in disability adjusted life years (DALYs); costs in 2005 international dollars ($Int); and costs per DALY. Results Across 101 intervention strategies examined in this study, average yearly costs at the population level would range from around ≤$Int1m (such as for cataract surgeries) to >$Int1bn for certain strategies for primary prevention in cardiovascular disease. Wide variation also appeared in total population health benefits, from <1000 DALYs averted a year (for some components of cancer treatments or aspirin for acute ischaemic stroke) to >300 000 averted DALYs (for aggressive combinations of interventions to deal with alcohol use or cardiovascular risks). Interventions in this study spanned a wide range of average cost effectiveness ratios, differing by more than three orders of magnitude between the lowest and highest ratios. Overall, community and public health interventions such as non-personal interventions for alcohol use, tobacco use, and cardiovascular risks tended to have lower cost effectiveness ratios than many clinical interventions (of varying complexity). Even within the community and public health interventions, however, there was a 200-fold difference between the most and least cost effective strategies examined. Likewise, several clinical interventions appeared among the strategies with the lowest average cost effectiveness ratios—for example, cataract surgeries. Conclusions Wide variations in costs and effects exist within and across intervention categories. For every major disease area examined, at least some strategies provided excellent value for money, including both population based and personal interventions. PMID:22389335

Risk, Benefit, and Cost Thresholds for Emergency Department Testing: A Cross-sectional, Scenario-based Study.

PubMed

Meka, Arjun Prasad; Porath, Jonathan Douglas; Iyengar, Rahul; Morrow, Chelsea; Fagerlin, Angela; Meurer, William J

2017-06-01

While diagnostic testing is common in the emergency department, the value of some testing is questionable. The purpose of this study was to assess how varying levels of benefit, risk, and costs influenced an individual's desire to have diagnostic testing. A survey through Amazon Mechanical Turk presented hypothetical clinical situations: low-risk chest pain and minor traumatic brain injury. Each scenario included three given variables (benefit, risk, and cost), that was independently randomly varied over four possible values (0.1, 1, 5, and 10% for benefit and risk and $0, $100, $500, and $1,000 for the individual's personal cost for receiving the test). Benefit was defined as the probability of finding the target disease (traumatic intracranial hemorrhage or acute coronary syndrome). One-thousand unique respondents completed the survey. With an increased benefit from 0.1% to 10%, the percentage of respondents who accepted a diagnostic test went from 28.4% to 53.1%. (odds ratio [OR] = 3.42; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.57-4.54). As risk increased from 0.1% to 10%, this number decreased from 52.5% to 28.5%. (OR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.25-0.44). Increasing cost from $0 to $1,000 had the greatest change of those accepting the test from 61.1% to 21.4%, respectively (OR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.11-0.2). The desire for testing was strongly sensitive to the benefits, risks, and costs. Many participants wanted a test when there was no added cost, regardless of benefit or risk levels, but far fewer elected to receive the test as cost increased incrementally. This suggests that out-of-pocket costs may deter patients from undergoing diagnostic testing with low potential benefit. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Cost-effectiveness of standard vs intensive antibiotic regimens for transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy prophylaxis.

PubMed

Adibi, Mehrad; Pearle, Margaret S; Lotan, Yair

2012-07-01

Multiple studies have shown an increase in the hospital admission rates due to infectious complications after transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy (TRUSBx), mostly related to a rise in the prevalence of fluoroquinolone-resistant organisms. As a result, multiple series have advocated the use of more intensive prophylactic antibiotic regimens to augment the effect of the widely used fluoroquinolone prophylaxis for TRUSBx. The present study compares the cost-effectiveness fluoroquinolone prophylaxis to more intensive prophylactic antibiotic regimens, which is an important consideration for any antibiotic regimen used on a wide-scale for TRUSBx prophylaxis. To compare the cost-effectiveness of fluoroquinolones vs intensive antibiotic regimens for transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy (TRUSBx) prophylaxis. Risk of hospital admission for infectious complications after TRUSBx was determined from published data. The average cost of hospital admission due to post-biopsy infection was determined from patients admitted to our University hospital ≤1 week of TRUSBx. A decision tree analysis was created to compare cost-effectiveness of standard vs intensive antibiotic prophylactic regimens based on varying risk of infection, cost, and effectiveness of the intensive antibiotic regimen. Baseline assumption included cost of TRUSBx ($559), admission rate (1%), average cost of admission ($5900) and cost of standard and intensive antibiotic regimens of $1 and $33, respectively. Assuming a 50% risk reduction in admission rates with intensive antibiotics, the standard regimen was slightly less costly with average cost of $619 vs $622, but was associated with twice as many infections. Sensitivity analyses found that a 1.1% risk of admission for quinolone-resistant infections or a 54% risk reduction attributed to the more intensive antibiotic regimen will result in cost-equivalence for the two regimens. Three-way sensitivity analyses showed that small increases in probability of admission using the standard antibiotics or greater risk reduction using the intensive regimen result in the intensive prophylactic regimen becoming substantially more cost-effectiveness even at higher costs. As the risk of admission for infectious complications due to TRUSBx increases, use of an intensive prophylactic antibiotic regimen becomes significantly more cost-effective than current standard antibiotic prophylaxis. © 2011 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a telehealth intervention to support the management of long-term conditions: study protocol for two linked randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Thomas, Clare L; Man, Mei-See; O'Cathain, Alicia; Hollinghurst, Sandra; Large, Shirley; Edwards, Louisa; Nicholl, Jon; Montgomery, Alan A; Salisbury, Chris

2014-01-24

As the population ages, more people are suffering from long-term health conditions (LTCs). Health services around the world are exploring new ways of supporting people with LTCs and there is great interest in the use of telehealth: technologies such as the Internet, telephone and home self-monitoring. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a telehealth intervention delivered by NHS Direct to support patients with LTCs. Two randomized controlled trials will be conducted in parallel, recruiting patients with two exemplar LTCs: depression or raised cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A total of 1,200 patients will be recruited from approximately 42 general practices near Bristol, Sheffield and Southampton, UK. Participants will be randomly allocated to either usual care (control group) or usual care plus the NHS Direct Healthlines Service (intervention group). The intervention is based on a conceptual model incorporating promotion of self-management, optimisation of treatment, coordination of care and engagement of patients and general practitioners. Participants will be provided with tailored help, combining telephone advice from health information advisors with support to use a range of online resources. Participants will access the service for 12 months. Outcomes will be collected at baseline, four, eight and 12 months for the depression trial and baseline, six and 12 months for the CVD risk trial. The primary outcome will be the proportion of patients responding to treatment, defined in the depression trial as a PHQ-9 score <10 and an absolute reduction in PHQ-9 ≥5 after 4 months, and in the CVD risk trial as maintenance or reduction of 10-year CVD risk after 12 months. The study will also assess whether the intervention is cost-effective from the perspective of the NHS and personal social services. An embedded qualitative interview study will explore healthcare professionals' and patients' views of the intervention. This study evaluates a complex telehealth intervention which combines evidence-based components and is delivered by an established healthcare organisation. The study will also analyse health economic information. In doing so, the study hopes to address some of the limitations of previous research by demonstrating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a real world telehealth intervention. Current Controlled Trials: Depression trial ISRCTN14172341 and cardiovascular disease risk trial ISRCTN27508731.

Restructuring Primary Health Care Markets in New Zealand: from Welfare Benefits to Insurance Markets

PubMed Central

Howell, Bronwyn

2005-01-01

Background New Zealand's Primary Health Care Strategy (NZPHCS) was introduced in 2002. Its features are substantial increases in government funding delivered as capitation payments, and newly-created service-purchasing agencies. The objectives are to reduce health disparities and to improve health outcomes. Analysis The NZPHCS changes New Zealand's publicly-funded primary health care payments from targeted welfare benefits to universal, risk-rated insurance premium subsidies. Patient contributions change from fee-for-service top-ups to insurance premium top-ups, and are collected by service providers who, depending upon their contracts with purchasers, may also be either insurance agents or risk-bearing insurance companies. The change invokes the tensions associated with allocating risk-bearing amongst providers, patients and insurance companies that accompany all insurance-based funding instruments. These include increases in existing incentives for over-consumption and new incentives for insurers to limit their exposure to variations in patient health states by engaging in active patient pool selection. The New Zealand scheme is complex, but closely resembles United States insurance-based, risk-rated managed care schemes. The key difference is that unlike classic managed care models, where provider remuneration is determined by the insurer, the historic right for general practitioners to autonomously set patient charges alters the fiscal incentives normally available to managed care organisations. Consequently, the insurance role is being devolved to individual service providers with very small patient pools, who must recoup the premium top-ups from insured individuals. Premium top-ups are being collected only from those individuals consuming care, in proportion to the number of times care is sought. Co-payments thus constitute perfectly risk-rated premium levies set by inefficiently small insurers, raising questions about the efficiency and equity of a 'universal' insurance system pooling total population demands and costs. The efficacy of using financial incentives to constrain costs and encourage innovation when providers retain the right to arbitrarily recoup costs directly from patients, is also questioned. Results Initial evidence suggests that total costs are higher than initially expected, and prices to some patients have risen substantially under the NZPHCS. Limited competition and NZPHCS governance requirements mean current institutional arrangements are unlikely to facilitate efficiency improvements. System design changes therefore appear indicated. PMID:16144544

Mars exploration study workshop 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duke, Michael B.; Budden, Nancy Ann

1993-11-01

A year-long NASA-wide study effort has led to the development of an innovative strategy for the human exploration of Mars. The latest Mars Exploration Study Workshop 2 advanced a design reference mission (DRM) that significantly reduces the perceived high costs, complex infrastructure, and long schedules associated with previous Mars scenarios. This surface-oriented philosophy emphasizes the development of high-leveraging surface technologies in lieu of concentrating exclusively on space transportation technologies and development strategies. As a result of the DRM's balanced approach to mission and crew risk, element commonality, and technology development, human missions to Mars can be accomplished without the need for complex assembly operations in low-Earth orbit. This report, which summarizes the Mars Exploration Study Workshop held at the Ames Research Center on May 24-25, 1993, provides an overview of the status of the Mars Exploration Study, material presented at the workshop, and discussions of open items being addressed by the study team. The workshop assembled three teams of experts to discuss cost, dual-use technology, and international involvement, and to generate a working group white paper addressing these issues. The three position papers which were generated are included in section three of this publication.

Mars exploration study workshop 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, Michael B.; Budden, Nancy Ann

1993-01-01

A year-long NASA-wide study effort has led to the development of an innovative strategy for the human exploration of Mars. The latest Mars Exploration Study Workshop 2 advanced a design reference mission (DRM) that significantly reduces the perceived high costs, complex infrastructure, and long schedules associated with previous Mars scenarios. This surface-oriented philosophy emphasizes the development of high-leveraging surface technologies in lieu of concentrating exclusively on space transportation technologies and development strategies. As a result of the DRM's balanced approach to mission and crew risk, element commonality, and technology development, human missions to Mars can be accomplished without the need for complex assembly operations in low-Earth orbit. This report, which summarizes the Mars Exploration Study Workshop held at the Ames Research Center on May 24-25, 1993, provides an overview of the status of the Mars Exploration Study, material presented at the workshop, and discussions of open items being addressed by the study team. The workshop assembled three teams of experts to discuss cost, dual-use technology, and international involvement, and to generate a working group white paper addressing these issues. The three position papers which were generated are included in section three of this publication.

Costs of transcatheter versus surgical aortic valve replacement in intermediate-risk patients.

PubMed

Osnabrugge, Ruben L J; Head, Stuart J; Genders, Tessa S S; Van Mieghem, Nicolas M; De Jaegere, Peter P T; van der Boon, Robert M A; Kerkvliet, J Marco; Kalesan, Bindu; Bogers, Ad J J C; Kappetein, A Pieter; Hunink, M G Myriam

2012-12-01

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) offers a new treatment option for patients with aortic stenosis, but costs may play a decisive role in decision making. Current studies are evaluating TAVR in an intermediate-risk population. We assessed the in-hospital and 1-year follow-up costs of patients undergoing TAVR and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) at intermediate operative risk and identified important cost components. We prospectively collected clinical data on 141 patients undergoing TAVR and 405 undergoing SAVR. Propensity score matching yielded 42 matched pairs at intermediate risk. Costs were assessed using a detailed resource-use approach and compared using bootstrap methods. In-hospital costs were higher in TAVR patients than in SAVR patients (€40802 vs €33354, respectively; p=0.010). The total costs at 1 year were €46217 vs €35511, respectively (p=0.009). The TAVR was less costly with regard to blood products, operating room use, and length-of-stay. For intermediate-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis the costs at 1 year are higher for TAVR than for SAVR. The difference was mainly caused by the higher costs of the transcatheter valve and was not compensated by the lower costs for blood products and hospital stay in TAVR patients. Therefore, SAVR remains a clinically and economically attractive treatment option. Copyright © 2012 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of cardioversion and antiarrhythmic therapy in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Catherwood, E; Fitzpatrick, W D; Greenberg, M L; Holzberger, P T; Malenka, D J; Gerling, B R; Birkmeyer, J D

1999-04-20

Physicians managing patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation must consider the risks, benefits, and costs of treatments designed to restore and maintain sinus rhythm compared with those of rate control with antithrombotic prophylaxis. To compare the cost-effectiveness of cardioversion, with or without antiarrhythmic agents, with that of rate control plus warfarin or aspirin. A Markov decision-analytic model was designed to simulate long-term health and economic outcomes. Published literature and hospital accounting information. Hypothetical cohort of 70-year-old patients with different baseline risks for stroke. 3 months. Societal. Therapeutic strategies using different combinations of cardioversion alone, cardioversion plus amiodarone or quinidine therapy, and rate control with antithrombotic treatment. Expected costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness. Strategies involving cardioversion alone were more effective and less costly than those not involving this option. For patients at high risk for ischemic stroke (5.3% per year), cardioversion alone followed by repeated cardioversion plus amiodarone therapy on relapse was most cost-effective ($9300 per QALY) compared with cardioversion alone followed by warfarin therapy on relapse. This strategy was also preferred for the moderate-risk cohort (3.6% per year), but the benefit was more expensive ($18,900 per QALY). In the lowest-risk cohort (1.6% per year), cardioversion alone followed by aspirin therapy on relapse was optimal. The choice of optimal strategy and incremental cost-effectiveness was substantially influenced by the baseline risk for stroke, rate of stroke in sinus rhythm, efficacy of warfarin, and costs and utilities for long-term warfarin and amiodarone therapy. Cardioversion alone should be the initial management strategy for persistent nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. On relapse of arrhythmia, repeated cardioversion plus low-dose amiodarone is cost-effective for patients at moderate to high risk for ischemic stroke.

Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

1996-01-01

This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs.

PubMed

Ganga, G M D; Esposto, K F; Braatz, D

2012-01-01

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

HMO Risk Contracts--A "No Cost" Way to Manage Retiree Health Care Costs?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammer, Barbara F.

1995-01-01

Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) "risk contracts," under which HMOs cover Medicare-eligible individuals, are explained; and the costs, benefits, and coverage are compared with those of other managed care options. Employers with retiree medical plans are encouraged to consider using HMO risk contracts for both short- and long-term…

Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: A case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States

PubMed Central

Beck, Michael W.; Bresch, David N.; Calil, Juliano; Meliane, Imen

2018-01-01

Coastal risks are increasing from both development and climate change. Interest is growing in the protective role that coastal nature-based measures (or green infrastructure), such as reefs and wetlands, can play in adapting to these risks. However, a lack of quantitative information on their relative costs and benefits is one principal factor limiting their use more broadly. Here, we apply a quantitative risk assessment framework to assess coastal flood risk (from climate change and economic exposure growth) across the United States Gulf of Mexico coast to compare the cost effectiveness of different adaptation measures. These include nature-based (e.g. oyster reef restoration), structural or grey (e.g., seawalls) and policy measures (e.g. home elevation). We first find that coastal development will be a critical driver of risk, particularly for major disasters, but climate change will cause more recurrent losses through changes in storms and relative sea level rise. By 2030, flooding will cost $134–176.6 billion (for different economic growth scenarios), but as the effects of climate change, land subsidence and concentration of assets in the coastal zone increase, annualized risk will more than double by 2050 with respect to 2030. However, from the portfolio we studied, the set of cost-effective adaptation measures (with benefit to cost ratios above 1) could prevent up to $57–101 billion in losses, which represents 42.8–57.2% of the total risk. Nature-based adaptation options could avert more than $50 billion of these costs, and do so cost effectively with average benefit to cost ratios above 3.5. Wetland and oyster reef restoration are found to be particularly cost-effective. This study demonstrates that the cost effectiveness of nature-based, grey and policy measures can be compared quantitatively with one another, and that the cost effectiveness of adaptation becomes more attractive as climate change and coastal development intensifies in the future. It also shows that investments in nature-based adaptation could meet multiple objectives for environmental restoration, adaptation and flood risk reduction. PMID:29641611

Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: A case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States.

PubMed

Reguero, Borja G; Beck, Michael W; Bresch, David N; Calil, Juliano; Meliane, Imen

2018-01-01

Coastal risks are increasing from both development and climate change. Interest is growing in the protective role that coastal nature-based measures (or green infrastructure), such as reefs and wetlands, can play in adapting to these risks. However, a lack of quantitative information on their relative costs and benefits is one principal factor limiting their use more broadly. Here, we apply a quantitative risk assessment framework to assess coastal flood risk (from climate change and economic exposure growth) across the United States Gulf of Mexico coast to compare the cost effectiveness of different adaptation measures. These include nature-based (e.g. oyster reef restoration), structural or grey (e.g., seawalls) and policy measures (e.g. home elevation). We first find that coastal development will be a critical driver of risk, particularly for major disasters, but climate change will cause more recurrent losses through changes in storms and relative sea level rise. By 2030, flooding will cost $134-176.6 billion (for different economic growth scenarios), but as the effects of climate change, land subsidence and concentration of assets in the coastal zone increase, annualized risk will more than double by 2050 with respect to 2030. However, from the portfolio we studied, the set of cost-effective adaptation measures (with benefit to cost ratios above 1) could prevent up to $57-101 billion in losses, which represents 42.8-57.2% of the total risk. Nature-based adaptation options could avert more than $50 billion of these costs, and do so cost effectively with average benefit to cost ratios above 3.5. Wetland and oyster reef restoration are found to be particularly cost-effective. This study demonstrates that the cost effectiveness of nature-based, grey and policy measures can be compared quantitatively with one another, and that the cost effectiveness of adaptation becomes more attractive as climate change and coastal development intensifies in the future. It also shows that investments in nature-based adaptation could meet multiple objectives for environmental restoration, adaptation and flood risk reduction.

Efficacy of a Web-based Intelligent Tutoring System for Communicating Genetic Risk of Breast Cancer: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach

PubMed Central

Wolfe, Christopher R.; Reyna, Valerie F.; Widmer, Colin L.; Cedillos, Elizabeth M.; Fisher, Christopher R.; Brust-Renck, Priscila G.; Weil, Audrey M.

2014-01-01

Background Many healthy women consider genetic testing for breast cancer risk, yet BRCA testing issues are complex. Objective Determining whether an intelligent tutor, BRCA Gist, grounded in fuzzy-trace theory (FTT), increases gist comprehension and knowledge about genetic testing for breast cancer risk, improving decision-making. Design In two experiments, 410 healthy undergraduate women were randomly assigned to one of three groups: an online module using a web-based tutoring system (BRCA Gist) that uses artificial intelligence technology, a second group read highly similar content from the NCI web site, and a third completed an unrelated tutorial. Intervention BRCA Gist applied fuzzy trace theory and was designed to help participants develop gist comprehension of topics relevant to decisions about BRCA genetic testing, including how breast cancer spreads, inherited genetic mutations, and base rates. Measures We measured content knowledge, gist comprehension of decision-relevant information, interest in testing, and genetic risk and testing judgments. Results Control knowledge scores ranged from 54% to 56%, NCI improved significantly to 65% and 70%, and BRCA Gist improved significantly more to 75% and 77%, p<.0001. BRCA Gist scored higher on gist comprehension than NCI and control, p<.0001. Control genetic risk-assessment mean was 48% correct; BRCA Gist (61%), and NCI (56%) were significantly higher, p<.0001. BRCA Gist participants recommended less testing for women without risk factors (not good candidates), (24% and 19%) than controls (50%, both experiments) and NCI, (32%) Experiment 2, p<.0001. BRCA Gist testing interest was lower than controls, p<.0001. Limitations BRCA Gist has not been tested with older women from diverse groups. Conclusions Intelligent tutors, such as BRCA Gist, are scalable, cost effective ways of helping people understand complex issues, improving decision-making. PMID:24829276

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 5: Economic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems are studied along with a variety of economic and programmatic issues relevant to their development and deployment. The costs, uncertainties and risks associated with the current photovoltaic Satellite Solar Power System (SSPS) configuration, and issues affecting the development of an economically viable SSPS development program are addressed. In particular, the desirability of low earth orbit (LEO) and geosynchronous (GEO) test satellites is examined and critical technology areas are identified. The development of SSPS unit production (nth item), and operation and maintenance cost models suitable for incorporation into a risk assessment (Monte Carlo) model (RAM) are reported. The RAM was then used to evaluate the current SSPS configuration expected costs and cost-risk associated with this configuration. By examining differential costs and cost-risk as a function of postulated technology developments, the critical technologies, that is, those which drive costs and/or cost-risk, are identified. It is shown that the key technology area deals with productivity in space, that is, the ability to fabricate and assemble large structures in space, not, as might be expected, with some hardware component technology.

Use of Model-Based Design Methods for Enhancing Resiliency Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Lenora A.

The most common traditional non-functional requirement analysis is reliability. With systems becoming more complex, networked, and adaptive to environmental uncertainties, system resiliency has recently become the non-functional requirement analysis of choice. Analysis of system resiliency has challenges; which include, defining resilience for domain areas, identifying resilience metrics, determining resilience modeling strategies, and understanding how to best integrate the concepts of risk and reliability into resiliency. Formal methods that integrate all of these concepts do not currently exist in specific domain areas. Leveraging RAMSoS, a model-based reliability analysis methodology for Systems of Systems (SoS), we propose an extension that accounts for resiliency analysis through evaluation of mission performance, risk, and cost using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) modeling and design trade study variability modeling evaluation techniques. This proposed methodology, coined RAMSoS-RESIL, is applied to a case study in the multi-agent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) domain to investigate the potential benefits of a mission architecture where functionality to complete a mission is disseminated across multiple UAVs (distributed) opposed to being contained in a single UAV (monolithic). The case study based research demonstrates proof of concept for the proposed model-based technique and provides sufficient preliminary evidence to conclude which architectural design (distributed vs. monolithic) is most resilient based on insight into mission resilience performance, risk, and cost in addition to the traditional analysis of reliability.

The Abuse Intervention Model: A Pragmatic Approach to Intervention for Elder Mistreatment.

PubMed

Mosqueda, Laura; Burnight, Kerry; Gironda, Melanie W; Moore, Alison A; Robinson, Jehni; Olsen, Bonnie

2016-09-01

Ten percent of older adults experience elder mistreatment, and it is much more common in older adults with dementia. It is associated with higher rates of psychological distress, hospitalization, and death and, in the United States, costs billions of dollars each year. Although elder mistreatment is relatively common and costly, it is estimated that fewer than 10% of instances of elder mistreatment are reported. Given these data, there is a great need for research on interventions to mitigate elder mistreatment and for a practical model or framework to use in approaching such interventions. Although many theories have been proposed, adapted, and applied to understand elder mistreatment, there has not been a simple, coherent framework of known risk factors of the victim, perpetrator, and environment that applies to all types of abuse. This article presents a new model to examine the multidimensional and complex relationships between risk factors. Theories of elder mistreatment, research on risk factors for elder mistreatment, and 10 years of experience of faculty and staff at an Elder Abuse Forensics Center who have investigated more than 1,000 cases of elder mistreatment inform this model. It is hoped that this model, the Abuse Intervention Model, will be used to study and intervene in elder mistreatment. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Cost consequences of induced abortion as an attributable risk for preterm birth and impact on informed consent.

PubMed

Calhoun, Byron C; Shadigian, Elizabeth; Rooney, Brent

2007-10-01

To investigate the human and monetary cost consequences of preterm delivery as related to induced abortion (IA), with its impact on informed consent and medical malpractice. A review of the literature in English was performed to assess the effect of IA on preterm delivery rates from 24 to 31 6/7 weeks to assess the risk for preterm birth attributable to IA. After calculating preterm birth risk, the increased initial neonatal hospital costs and cerebral palsy (CP) risks related to IA were calculated. IA increased the early preterm delivery rate by 31.5%, with a yearly increase in initial neonatal hospital costs related to IA of > $1.2 billion. The yearly human cost includes 22,917 excess early preterm births (EPB) (< 32 weeks) and 1096 excess CP cases in very-low-birth-weight newborns, <1500 g. IA contributes to significantly increased neonatal health costs by causing 31.5% of EPB. Providers of obstetric care and abortion should be aware of the risk of preterm birth attributable to induced abortion, with its significant increase in initial neonatal hospital costs and CP cases.

Changing the status of drugs from prescription to over-the-counter availability.

PubMed

Brass, E P

2001-09-13

The availability of drugs on an over-the-counter basis, including those previously available only by prescription, provides patients with improved access to effective therapies. Removal of the requirement for prescriptions saves both the health care professional and the patient time. However, the overall effect on health care costs is complex. One such effect may be that costs shift from third-party payers to patients. In addition, short-term cost savings may be offset over the long term by problems due to inappropriate use or suboptimal therapy. Optimal therapy with an over-the-counter drug requires that the consumer diagnose the underlying condition correctly and use the drug in a manner that minimizes risk. Assessment of the ability of patients to use drugs in this manner is a critical component of the regulatory review of over-the-counter drugs. The available data arouse the concern that without the supervision of a health care professional, some patients may not be able to use over-the-counter drugs appropriately for certain diagnoses or chronic conditions or in high-risk situations. On the other hand, the widespread use of over-the-counter aspirin on a long-term basis for cardiovascular-risk reduction illustrates the potential value of increased drug availability for long-term therapy. Advances in technology may facilitate the growth of over-the-counter drug therapy. For example, the wide availability and acceptance of reliable methods for measuring serum cholesterol in nonmedical settings may eventually contribute to the safety and effectiveness of over-the-counter treatments for hyperlipidemia. Thus, the future promises increases in the number of drugs available over the counter and in the variety of indications for their use.

Shuttle-Derived Launch Vehicles' Capablities: An Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rothschild, William J.; Bailey, Debra A.; Henderson, Edward M.; Crumbly, Chris

2005-01-01

Shuttle-Derived Launch Vehicle (SDLV) concepts have been developed by a collaborative team comprising the Johnson Space Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, Kennedy Space Center, ATK-Thiokol, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, The Boeing Company, and United Space Alliance. The purpose of this study was to provide timely information on a full spectrum of low-risk, cost-effective options for STS-Derived Launch Vehicle concepts to support the definition of crew and cargo launch requirements for the Space Exploration Vision. Since the SDLV options use high-reliability hardware, existing facilities, and proven processes, they can provide relatively low-risk capabilities to launch extremely large payloads to low Earth orbit. This capability to reliably lift very large, high-dollar-value payloads could reduce mission operational risks by minimizing the number of complex on-orbit operations compared to architectures based on multiple smaller launchers. The SDLV options also offer several logical spiral development paths for larger exploration payloads. All of these development paths make practical and cost-effective use of existing Space Shuttle Program (SSP) hardware, infrastructure, and launch and flight operations systems. By utilizing these existing assets, the SDLV project could support the safe and orderly transition of the current SSP through the planned end of life in 2010. The SDLV concept definition work during 2004 focused on three main configuration alternatives: a side-mount heavy lifter (approximately 77 MT payload), an in-line medium lifter (approximately 22 MT Crew Exploration Vehicle payload), and an in-line heavy lifter (greater than 100 MT payload). This paper provides an overview of the configuration, performance capabilities, reliability estimates, concept of operations, and development plans for each of the various SDLV alternatives. While development, production, and operations costs have been estimated for each of the SDLV configuration alternatives, these proprietary data have not been included in this paper.

A new approach to assess gambling-like behavior in laboratory rats: using intracranial self-stimulation as a positive reinforcer

PubMed Central

Tedford, Stephanie E.; Holtz, Nathan A.; Persons, Amanda L.; Napier, T. Celeste

2014-01-01

Pathological gambling is one manifestation of impulse control disorders. The biological underpinnings of these disorders remain elusive and treatment is far from ideal. Animal models of impulse control disorders are a critical research tool for understanding this condition and for medication development. Modeling such complex behaviors is daunting, but by its deconstruction, scientists have recapitulated in animals critical aspects of gambling. One aspect of gambling is cost/benefit decision-making wherein one weighs the anticipated costs and expected benefits of a course of action. Risk/reward, delay-based and effort-based decision-making all represent cost/benefit choices. These features are studied in humans and have been translated to animal protocols to measure decision-making processes. Traditionally, the positive reinforcer used in animal studies is food. Here, we describe how intracranial self-stimulation can be used for cost/benefit decision-making tasks and overview our recent studies showing how pharmacological therapies alter these behaviors in laboratory rats. We propose that these models may have value in screening new compounds for the ability to promote and prevent aspects of gambling behavior. PMID:24966822

[Decision analysis--a novel approach for calculating the cost-efficiency of medical tests].

PubMed

Becher, J

2008-09-01

Before issuing an insurance policy (e.g. life, disability, critical illness), insurers will usually carry out a medical risk assessment in order to prevent adverse selection. Often, the health questions in the application form will not be sufficient for this purpose since most applicants are not well-versed in medical science and terminology. If the insurer needs additional medical information such as a private medical attendant's report or current laboratory tests, however, costs will be incurred, which usually have to be paid by the insurer. What is the minimum sum insured which makes it worthwhile for the insurer to conduct certain screening tests, for example? Both the costs of medical screening and the associated savings are difficult to measure and involve a variety of different factors. Moreover, most parameters can only be estimated with limited accuracy. Therefore, we have developed a new calculation model using a decision-analysis approach. The new model makes it possible to analyse complex situations while taking into account the uncertainty of parameter estimation. Our findings show that in Germany, for instance, current sum thresholds for older applicants could in many cases be lowered and would still be cost-effective.

Links between social environment and health care utilization and costs.

PubMed

Brault, Marie A; Brewster, Amanda L; Bradley, Elizabeth H; Keene, Danya; Tan, Annabel X; Curry, Leslie A

2018-01-01

The social environment influences health outcomes for older adults and could be an important target for interventions to reduce costly medical care. We sought to understand which elements of the social environment distinguish communities that achieve lower health care utilization and costs from communities that experience higher health care utilization and costs for older adults with complex needs. We used a sequential explanatory mixed methods approach. We classified community performance based on three outcomes: rate of hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions, all-cause risk-standardized hospital readmission rates, and Medicare spending per beneficiary. We conducted in-depth interviews with key informants (N = 245) from organizations providing health or social services. Higher performing communities were distinguished by several aspects of social environment, and these features were lacking in lower performing communities: 1) strong informal support networks; 2) partnerships between faith-based organizations and health care and social service organizations; and 3) grassroots organizing and advocacy efforts. Higher performing communities share similar social environmental features that complement the work of health care and social service organizations. Many of the supportive features and programs identified in the higher performing communities were developed locally and with limited governmental funding, providing opportunities for improvement.

A Stochastic Multi-Attribute Assessment of Energy Options for Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Madani, K.; Mokhtari, S.; Hanks, C. L.; Sheets, B.

2012-12-01

Many competing projects have been proposed to address Interior Alaska's high cost of energy—both for electricity production and for heating. Public and private stakeholders are considering the costs associated with these competing projects which vary in fuel source, subsidy requirements, proximity, and other factors. As a result, the current projects under consideration involve a complex cost structure of potential subsidies and reliance on present and future market prices, introducing a significant amount of uncertainty associated with each selection. Multi-criteria multi-decision making (MCMDM) problems of this nature can benefit from game theory and systems engineering methods, which account for behavior and preferences of stakeholders in the analysis to produce feasible and relevant solutions. This work uses a stochastic MCMDM framework to evaluate the trade-offs of each proposed project based on a complete cost analysis, environmental impact, and long-term sustainability. Uncertainty in the model is quantified via a Monte Carlo analysis, which helps characterize the sensitivity and risk associated with each project. Based on performance measures and criteria outlined by the stakeholders, a decision matrix will inform policy on selecting a project that is both efficient and preferred by the constituents.

Screening for diabetes and prediabetes should be cost-saving in patients at high risk.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Ranee; Narayan, K M Venkat; Lipscomb, Joseph; Jackson, Sandra L; Long, Qi; Zhu, Ming; Phillips, Lawrence S

2013-07-01

Although screening for diabetes and prediabetes is recommended, it is not clear how best or whom to screen. We therefore compared the economics of screening according to baseline risk. Five screening tests were performed in 1,573 adults without known diabetes--random plasma/capillary glucose, plasma/capillary glucose 1 h after 50-g oral glucose (any time, without previous fast, plasma glucose 1 h after a 50-g oral glucose challenge [GCTpl]/capillary glucose 1 h after a 50-g oral glucose challenge [GCTcap]), and A1C--and a definitive 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. Costs of screening included the following: costs of testing (screen plus oral glucose tolerance test, if screen is positive); costs for false-negative results; and costs of treatment of true-positive results with metformin, all over the course of 3 years. We compared costs for no screening, screening everyone for diabetes or high-risk prediabetes, and screening those with risk factors based on age, BMI, blood pressure, waist circumference, lipids, or family history of diabetes. Compared with no screening, cost-savings would be obtained largely from screening those at higher risk, including those with BMI >35 kg/m(2), systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg, or age >55 years, with differences of up to -46% of health system costs for screening for diabetes and -21% for screening for dysglycemia110, respectively (all P < 0.01). GCTpl would be the least expensive screening test for most high-risk groups for this population over the course of 3 years. From a health economics perspective, screening for diabetes and high-risk prediabetes should target patients at higher risk, particularly those with BMI >35 kg/m(2), systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg, or age >55 years, for whom screening can be most cost-saving. GCTpl is generally the least expensive test in high-risk groups and should be considered for routine use as an opportunistic screen in these groups.

Microsatellites for Affordable Space Science: Capability and Design Concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smithies, Chad; Meerman, Max; Sweeting, Martin, , Sir

2002-01-01

Traditionally, space science has been performed using the most advanced technology available: the rationale being to obtain data that is as accurate and precise as possible. Pushing the envelope has led to a drive towards one-off, complex missions (as regards both the payloads and bus) that result in a high cost and long lead-time. The role for small, low cost satellites to complement these high cost, large platforms that are only accessible to the wealthiest nations has been demonstrated by Surrey Satellite Technology Limited (SSTL). Building on the experience gained from the 20 small satellites launched over 20 years, SSTL has pioneered innovative design and cost-effective engineering techniques for small satellites. The modular design of all three of Surrey's core platforms for the nano-, micro- and mini-satellites allows for a versatile capability that is well matched to the changing requirements demanded by scientific investigation. This capability, traditionally associated with LEO, is currently being studied for Lunar, Near Earth Object and Interplanetary missions. The affordability, modularity and rapid build philosophy of Surrey's small satellite platforms allow for an alternate approach to science missions. The opportunity now exists for lower cost instruments that can launched more frequently and affordably, as well as offering an alternative approach to redundancy and risk - for example, through distributed constellations. The paper will present a design concept of a cost-capped, science payload-driven spacecraft.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program

PubMed Central

Verhagen, Mark D.; Bolarinwa, Oladimeji A.; Sanya, Emmanuel O.; Kolo, Philip M.; Adenusi, Peju; Agbede, Kayode; van Eck, Diederik; Tan, Siok Swan; Akande, Tanimola M.; Redekop, William; Schultsz, Constance; Gomez, Gabriela B.

2016-01-01

Background High blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria. Methods A Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario. Results Screening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$ 1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$ 732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment. Conclusions Hypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA. PMID:27348310

Recruitment and Retention of Volunteers in a Citizen Science Network to Detect Invasive Species on Private Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andow, David A.; Borgida, Eugene; Hurley, Terrance M.; Williams, Allison L.

2016-10-01

Volunteer citizen monitoring is an increasingly important source of scientific data. We developed a volunteer program for early detection of new invasive species by private landowners on their own land. Early detection of an invasive species, however, subjects the landowner to the potentially costly risk of government intervention to control the invasive species. We hypothesized that an adult experiential learning module could increase recruitment and retention because private landowners could learn more about and understand the social benefits of early detection and more accurately gauge the level of personal risk. The experiential learning module emphasized group discussion and individual reflection of risks and benefits of volunteering and included interactions with experts and regulatory personnel. A population of woodland owners with >2 ha of managed oak woodland in central Minnesota were randomly assigned to recruitment treatments: (a) the experiential learning module or (b) a letter inviting their participation. The recruitment and retention rates and data quality were similar for the two methods. However, volunteers who experienced the learning module were more likely to recruit new volunteers than those who merely received an invitation letter. Thus the module may indirectly affect recruitment of new volunteers. The data collection was complex and required the volunteers to complete timely activities, yet the volunteers provided sufficiently high quality data that was useful to the organizers. Volunteers can collect complex data and are willing to assume personal risk to contribute to early detection of invasive species.

Recruitment and Retention of Volunteers in a Citizen Science Network to Detect Invasive Species on Private Lands.

PubMed

Andow, David A; Borgida, Eugene; Hurley, Terrance M; Williams, Allison L

2016-10-01

Volunteer citizen monitoring is an increasingly important source of scientific data. We developed a volunteer program for early detection of new invasive species by private landowners on their own land. Early detection of an invasive species, however, subjects the landowner to the potentially costly risk of government intervention to control the invasive species. We hypothesized that an adult experiential learning module could increase recruitment and retention because private landowners could learn more about and understand the social benefits of early detection and more accurately gauge the level of personal risk. The experiential learning module emphasized group discussion and individual reflection of risks and benefits of volunteering and included interactions with experts and regulatory personnel. A population of woodland owners with >2 ha of managed oak woodland in central Minnesota were randomly assigned to recruitment treatments: (a) the experiential learning module or (b) a letter inviting their participation. The recruitment and retention rates and data quality were similar for the two methods. However, volunteers who experienced the learning module were more likely to recruit new volunteers than those who merely received an invitation letter. Thus the module may indirectly affect recruitment of new volunteers. The data collection was complex and required the volunteers to complete timely activities, yet the volunteers provided sufficiently high quality data that was useful to the organizers. Volunteers can collect complex data and are willing to assume personal risk to contribute to early detection of invasive species.

Cost-effectiveness of the implantable cardioverter defibrillator: a review of current evidence.

PubMed

Lynd, Larry D; O'Brien, Bernie J

2003-09-01

Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy is indicated for patients at risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD) due to ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF). The high relative cost of therapy with the ICD versus antiarrhythmic drugs has raised questions regarding its cost-effectiveness. To address these questions, we review the literature on ICD cost-effectiveness. MEDLINE and other databases were searched for articles published since 1980 reporting original data on the cost-effectiveness of ICD versus drug therapy for patients at risk for SCD. Data on costs and life-years were abstracted and studies grouped into decision analysis models and trial-based analyses. Cost-effectiveness ratios were inflated to 2002 US dollars. Thirteen economic studies were included in this review: 6 decision-analytic models, 4 economic analysis alongside randomized controlled trials, and 1 observational study. Two additional studies evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ICDs stratified by mortality risk. Studies varied in time horizon, and in all but one study ICD therapy was more costly than drug therapy. Early models assumed larger survival benefits than were observed in subsequent trials; therefore, ICDs appeared to be more cost-effective (i.e., US dollars 28000-US dollars 60000 per life-year gained). Three large clinical trial-based studies estimated that the cost per life-year gained was between US dollars 30181 and US dollars 185000. Stratified analyses show that patients at higher risk for mortality due to structural heart disease (e.g., left ventricular ejection fraction <35%) benefit more from ICD therapy, resulting in lower cost-effectiveness ratios. ICD therapy continues to evolve with changing methods of implantation and improving technology. Current evidence suggests that ICDs may be a cost-effective option in patients at high risk for VT/VF. The cost-effectiveness of ICD therapy for primary and secondary prevention of SCD depends upon patient characteristics that influence their prior risk of mortality. Further research on patient selection criteria and the measurement of health-related quality of life is required.

Replica Approach for Minimal Investment Risk with Cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinzato, Takashi

2018-06-01

In the present work, the optimal portfolio minimizing the investment risk with cost is discussed analytically, where an objective function is constructed in terms of two negative aspects of investment, the risk and cost. We note the mathematical similarity between the Hamiltonian in the mean-variance model and the Hamiltonians in the Hopfield model and the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, show that we can analyze this portfolio optimization problem by using replica analysis, and derive the minimal investment risk with cost and the investment concentration of the optimal portfolio. Furthermore, we validate our proposed method through numerical simulations.

Gastroprotective strategies in chronic NSAID users: a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing single-tablet formulations with individual components.

PubMed

de Groot, N L; Spiegel, B M R; van Haalen, H G M; de Wit, N J; Siersema, P D; van Oijen, M G H

2013-01-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of competing gastroprotective strategies, including single-tablet formulations, in the prevention of gastrointestinal (GI) complications in patients with chronic arthritis taking nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). We performed a cost-utility analysis to compare eight gastroprotective strategies including NSAIDs, cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), histamine-2 receptor antagonists, misoprostol, and single-tablet formulations. We derived estimates for outcomes and costs from medical literature. The primary outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. We performed sensitivity analyses to assess the effect of GI complications, compliance rates, and drug costs. For average-risk patients, NSAID + PPI cotherapy was most cost-effective. The NSAID/PPI single-tablet formulation became cost-effective only when its price decreased from €0.78 to €0.56 per tablet, or when PPI compliance fell below 51% in the NSAID + PPI strategy. All other strategies were more costly and less effective. The model was highly sensitive to the GI complication risk, costs of PPI and NSAID/PPI single-tablet formulation, and compliance to PPI. In patients with a threefold higher risk of GI complications, both NSAID + PPI cotherapy and single-tablet formulation were cost-effective. NSAID + PPI cotherapy is the most cost-effective strategy in all patients with chronic arthritis irrespective of their risk for GI complications. For patients with increased GI risk, the NSAID/PPI single-tablet formulation is also cost-effective. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost and risk assessment for spacecraft operation decisions caused by the space debris environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaub, Hanspeter; Jasper, Lee E. Z.; Anderson, Paul V.; McKnight, Darren S.

2015-08-01

Space debris is a topic of concern among many in the space community. Most forecasting analyses look centuries into the future to attempt to predict how severe debris densities and fluxes will become in orbit regimes of interest. Conversely, space operators currently do not treat space debris as a major mission hazard. This survey paper outlines the range of cost and risk evaluations a space operator must consider when determining a debris-related response. Beyond the typical direct costs of performing an avoidance maneuver, the total cost including indirect costs, political costs and space environmental costs are discussed. The weights on these costs can vary drastically across mission types and orbit regimes flown. The operator response options during a mission are grouped into four categories: no action, perform debris dodging, follow stricter mitigation, and employ ADR. Current space operations are only considering the no action and debris dodging options, but increasing debris risk will eventually force the stricter mitigation and ADR options. Debris response equilibria where debris-related risks and costs settle on a steady-state solution are hypothesized.

Reconfigurable, Intelligently-Adaptive, Communication System, an SDR Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roche, Rigoberto J.; Shalkhauser, Mary Jo; Hickey, Joseph P.; Briones, Janette C.

2016-01-01

The Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) provides a common, consistent framework to abstract the application software from the radio platform hardware. STRS aims to reduce the cost and risk of using complex, configurable and reprogrammable radio systems across NASA missions. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) team made a software defined radio (SDR) platform STRS compliant by adding an STRS operating environment and a field programmable gate array (FPGA) wrapper, capable of implementing each of the platforms interfaces, as well as a test waveform to exercise those interfaces. This effort serves to provide a framework toward waveform development onto an STRS compliant platform to support future space communication systems for advanced exploration missions. The use of validated STRS compliant applications provides tested code with extensive documentation to potentially reduce risk, cost and e ort in development of space-deployable SDRs. This paper discusses the advantages of STRS, the integration of STRS onto a Reconfigurable, Intelligently-Adaptive, Communication System (RIACS) SDR platform, and the test waveform and wrapper development e orts. The paper emphasizes the infusion of the STRS Architecture onto the RIACS platform for potential use in next generation flight system SDRs for advanced exploration missions.

Advances in the microbial etiology and pathogenesis of early childhood caries

PubMed Central

Hajishengallis, Evlambia; Parsaei, Yassmin; Klein, Marlise I.; Koo, Hyun

2016-01-01

Early childhood caries (ECC) is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases affecting children worldwide. ECC is an aggressive form of dental caries, which left untreated, can result in rapid and extensive cavitation in teeth (rampant caries) that is painful and costly to treat. Furthermore, it affects mostly children from impoverished background, and thus constitutes a major challenge in public health. The disease is a prime example of the consequences arising from complex, dynamic interactions between microorganisms, host and diet, leading to the establishment of highly pathogenic (cariogenic) biofilms. To date, there are no effective methods to identify those at risk of developing ECC or control the disease in affected children. Recent advances in deep-sequencing technologies, novel imaging methods and (meta)proteomics-metabolomics approaches provide an unparalleled potential to reveal new insights to illuminate our current understanding about the etiology and pathogenesis of the disease. In this concise review, we provide a broader perspective about the etiology and pathogenesis of ECC based on previous and current knowledge on biofilm matrix, microbial diversity and host-microbe interactions which could have direct implications for developing new approaches for improved risk assessment and prevention of this devastating and costly childhood health condition. PMID:26714612

GMT azimuth bogie wheel-rail interface wear study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teran, Jose; Lindh, Cory; Morgan, Chris; Manuel, Eric; Bigelow, Bruce C.; Burgett, William S.

2016-07-01

Performance of the GMT azimuth drive system is vital for the operation of the telescope and, as such, all components subject to wear at the drive interface merit a high level of scrutiny for achieving a proper balance between capital costs, maintenance costs, and the risk for downtime during planned and unplanned maintenance or replacement procedures. Of particular importance is the interface between the azimuth wheels and rail, as usage frequency is high, the full weight of the enclosure must be transferred through small patches of contact, and replacement of the rail would pose a greater logistical challenge than the replacement of smaller components such as bearings and gearmotors. This study investigates tradeoffs between various wheel-rail and roller-track interfaces, including performance, complexity, and anticipated wear considerations. First, a survey of railway and overhead crane industry literature is performed and general detailing recommendations are made to minimize wear and the risk of rolling contact fatigue. Second, Adams/VI-Rail is used to simulate lifetime wear of four specific configurations under consideration for the GMT azimuth wheel-rail interface; all studied configurations are shown to be viable, and their relative merits are discussed.

A novel cost-effectiveness model of prescription eicosapentaenoic acid extrapolated to secondary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in the United States.

PubMed

Philip, Sephy; Chowdhury, Sumita; Nelson, John R; Benjamin Everett, P; Hulme-Lowe, Carolyn K; Schmier, Jordana K

2016-10-01

Given the substantial economic and health burden of cardiovascular disease and the residual cardiovascular risk that remains despite statin therapy, adjunctive therapies are needed. The purpose of this model was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of high-purity prescription eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) omega-3 fatty acid intervention in secondary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in statin-treated patient populations extrapolated to the US. The deterministic model utilized inputs for cardiovascular events, costs, and utilities from published sources. Expert opinion was used when assumptions were required. The model takes the perspective of a US commercial, third-party payer with costs presented in 2014 US dollars. The model extends to 5 years and applies a 3% discount rate to costs and benefits. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the influence of various input parameters on costs and outcomes. Using base case parameters, EPA-plus-statin therapy compared with statin monotherapy resulted in cost savings (total 5-year costs $29,393 vs $30,587 per person, respectively) and improved utilities (average 3.627 vs 3.575, respectively). The results were not sensitive to multiple variations in model inputs and consistently identified EPA-plus-statin therapy to be the economically dominant strategy, with both lower costs and better patient utilities over the modeled 5-year period. The model is only an approximation of reality and does not capture all complexities of a real-world scenario without further inputs from ongoing trials. The model may under-estimate the cost-effectiveness of EPA-plus-statin therapy because it allows only a single event per patient. This novel model suggests that combining EPA with statin therapy for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the US may be a cost-saving and more compelling intervention than statin monotherapy.

Got Risk? Using Risk Transfers to Control Costs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bambino, Robert

2010-01-01

For public school districts, risk financing is the financial outlay associated with litigation, such as settlements, verdicts, and the cost of legal defense. Even when districts purchase insurance to finance risk, a viable risk transfer program can still benefit districts in different ways: (1) Liability policies are generally experience-rated;…

Operative outcome and hospital cost.

PubMed

Ferraris, V A; Ferraris, S P; Singh, A

1998-03-01

Because of concern about increasing health care costs, we undertook a study to find patient risk factors associated with increased hospital costs and to evaluate the relationship between increased cost and in-hospital mortality and serious morbidity. More than 100 patient variables were screened in 1221 patients undergoing cardiac procedures. Simultaneously, patient hospital costs were computed from the cost-to-charge ratio. Univariate and multivariate statistics were used to explore the relationship between hospital cost and patient outcomes, including operative death, in-hospital morbidity, and length of stay. The greatest costs were for 31 patients who did not survive operation ($74,466, 95% confidence interval $27,102 to $198,025), greater than the costs for 120 patients who had serious, nonfatal morbidity ($60,335, 95% confidence interval $28,381 to $130,897, p = 0.02) and those for 1070 patients who survived operation without complication ($31,459, 95% confidence interval $21,944 to $49,849, p = 0.001). Breakdown of the components of hospital costs in fatalities and in cases with nonfatal complications revealed that the greatest contributions were in anesthesia and operating room costs. Significant (by stepwise linear regression analysis) independent risks for increased hospital cost were as follows (in order of decreasing importance): (1) preoperative congestive heart failure, (2) serum creatinine level greater than 2.5 mg/dl, (3) New York state predicted mortality risk, (4), type of operation (coronary artery bypass grafting, valve, valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting, or other), (5) preoperative hematocrit, (6) need for reoperative procedure, (7) operative priority, and (8) sex. These risks were different than those for in-hospitality death or increased length of stay. Hospital cost correlated with length of stay (r = 0.63, p < 0.001), but there were many outliers at the high end of the hospital cost spectrum. We conclude that operative death is the most costly outcome; length of stay is an unreliable indicator of hospital cost, especially at the high end of the cost spectrum; risks of increased hospital cost are different than those for perioperative mortality or increased length of stay; and ventricular dysfunction in elderly patients undergoing urgent operations for other than coronary disease is associated with increased cost. Certain patient factors, such as preoperative anemia and congestive heart failure, are amenable to preoperative intervention to reduce costs, and a high-risk patient profile can serve as a target for cost-reduction strategies.

Risk factor and cost accounting analysis for dialysis patients in Taiwan.

PubMed

Su, Bin-Guang; Tsai, Kai-Li; Yeh, Shu-Hsing; Ho, Yi-Yi; Liu, Shin-Yi; Rivers, Patrick A

2010-05-01

According to the 2004 US Renal Data System's annual report, the incidence rate of chronic renal failure in Taiwan increased from 120 to 352 per million populations between 1990 and 2003. This incidence rate is the highest in the world. The prevalence rate, which ranks number two in the world (Japan ranks number one), also increased from 384 to 1630 per million populations. Based on 2005 Taiwan national statistics, there were 52,958 end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients receiving routine dialysis treatment. This number, which comprised less than 0.2% of the total population and consumed $2.6 billion New Taiwan dollars, was more than 6.12% of the total annual spending of national health insurance during 2005. Dialysis expenditures for patients with ESRD rank the highest among all major injuries (traumas) and diseases. This article identifies and discusses the risk factors associated with consumption of medical resources during dialysis. Instead of using reimbursement data to estimate cost, as seen in previous studies, this study uses cost data within organizations and focuses on evaluating and predicting the resource consumption pattern for dialysis patients with different risk factors. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify 23 risk factors for routine dialysis patients. Of these risk factors, six were associated with the increase of dialysis cost: age (i.e. 75 years old and older), liver function disorder, hypertension, bile-duct disorder, cancer and high blood lipids. Patients with liver function disorder incurred much higher costs for injection medication and supplies. Hypertensive patients incurred higher costs for injection medication, supplies and oral medication. Patients with bile-duct disorder incurred a significant difference in check-up costs (i.e. costs were higher for those aged 75 years and older than those who were younger than 30 years of age). Cancer patients also incurred significant differences in cost of medical supplies. Patients with high blood lipids incurred significant differences in cost of oral medication. This study identified the relationship between cost and risk factors of dialysis procedures for ESRD patients based on average variable costs for each dialysis treatment. The results show that certain risk factors (e.g. aged 75 and older, hypertension, bile-duct disease, cancer and high blood lipids) are associated with higher cost. The results from this study could enable health policy makers and the National Health Insurance Bureau to design a fairer and more convincible reimbursement system for dialysis procedures. This study also provides a better understanding of what risk factors play more influential roles in affecting ESRD patients to receive haemodialysis treatment. It will help policy makers and health-care providers in better control or even prevent the disease and manage the distribution of the treatment. In addition, with the results from the analysis of cost information, we can tell which risk factors have more impacts on the dialysis cost. It will further help us control the cost for those high-risk dialysis patients more efficiently.

Cost-Effectiveness of Cranberry Capsules to Prevent Urinary Tract Infection in Long-Term Care Facilities: Economic Evaluation with a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

van den Hout, Wilbert B; Caljouw, Monique A A; Putter, Hein; Cools, Herman J M; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

2014-01-01

Objectives To investigate whether the preventive use of cranberry capsules in long-term care facility (LTCF) residents is cost-effective depending on urinary tract infection (UTI) risk. Design Economic evaluation with a randomized controlled trial. Setting Long-term care facilities. Participants LTCF residents (N = 928, 703 female, median age 84), stratified according to UTI risk. Measurements UTI incidence (clinically or strictly defined), survival, quality of life, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs. Results In the weeks after a clinical UTI, participants showed a significant but moderate deterioration in quality of life, survival, care dependency, and costs. In high-UTI-risk participants, cranberry costs were estimated at €439 per year (1.00 euro = 1.37 U.S. dollar), which is €3,800 per prevented clinically defined UTI (95% confidence interval = €1,300–infinity). Using the strict UTI definition, the use of cranberry increased costs without preventing UTIs. Taking cranberry capsules had a 22% probability of being cost-effective compared with placebo (at a willingness to pay of €40,000 per QALY). In low-UTI-risk participants, use of cranberry capsules was only 3% likely to be cost-effective. Conclusion In high-UTI-risk residents, taking cranberry capsules may be effective in preventing UTIs but is not likely to be cost-effective in the investigated dosage, frequency, and setting. In low-UTI-risk LTCF residents, taking cranberry capsules twice daily is neither effective nor cost-effective. PMID:25180379

Levee Setbacks: An Innovative, Cost Effective, and Sustainable Solution for Improved Flood Risk management

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-30

ER D C/ EL S R- 17 -3 Levee Setbacks: An Innovative, Cost-Effective, and Sustainable Solution for Improved Flood Risk Management En vi...EL SR-17-3 June 2017 Levee Setbacks: An Innovative, Cost-Effective, and Sustainable Solution for Improved Flood Risk Management David L. Smith...describes levee setbacks as alternatives to traditional levees for flood risk management and environmental benefits. It is organized into five sections

Incorporating Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus

2011-01-01

This presentation is about cost risk identification and estimation which is only a part of risk management. The purpose of this step is to identify common software risks, to assess their impact on the cost estimate, and to make revisions to the estimate based on these impacts.

Lesion complexity drives the cost of superficial femoral artery endovascular interventions

PubMed Central

Walker, Karen L.; Nolan, Brian W.; Columbo, Jesse A.; Rzucidlo, Eva M.; Goodney, Philip P.; Walsh, Daniel B.; Atkinson, Benjamin J.; Powell, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Objective Patients who undergo endovascular treatment of superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease vary greatly in lesion complexity and treatment options. This study examined the association of lesion severity and cost of SFA stenting and to determine if procedure cost affects primary patency at 1 year. Methods A retrospective record review identified patients undergoing initial SFA stenting between January 1, 2010, and February 1, 2012. Medical records were reviewed to collect data on demographics, comorbidities, indication for the procedure, TransAtlantic Inter-Society Consensus (TASC) II severity, and primary patency. The interventional radiology database and hospital accounting database were queried to determine cost drivers of SFA stenting. Procedure supply cost included any item with a bar code used for the procedure. Associations between cost drivers and lesion characteristics were explored. Primary patency was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a log-rank test. Results During the study period, 95 patients underwent stenting in 98 extremities; of these, 61% of SFA stents were performed for claudication, with 80% of lesions classified as TASC II A or B. Primary patency at 1 year was 79% for the entire cohort. The mean total cost per case was $10,333. Increased procedure supply cost was associated with adjunct device use, the number of stents, and TASC II severity. Despite higher costs of treating more complex lesions, primary patency at 1 year was similar at 80% for high-cost (supply cost >$4000) vs 78% for low-cost (supply cost <$4000) interventions. Conclusions SFA lesion complexity, as defined by TASC II severity, drives the cost of endovascular interventions but does not appear to disadvantage patency at 1 year. Reimbursement agencies should consider incorporating disease severity into reimbursement algorithms for lower extremity endovascular interventions. PMID:26206581

Lesion complexity drives the cost of superficial femoral artery endovascular interventions.

PubMed

Walker, Karen L; Nolan, Brian W; Columbo, Jesse A; Rzucidlo, Eva M; Goodney, Philip P; Walsh, Daniel B; Atkinson, Benjamin J; Powell, Richard J

2015-10-01

Patients who undergo endovascular treatment of superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease vary greatly in lesion complexity and treatment options. This study examined the association of lesion severity and cost of SFA stenting and to determine if procedure cost affects primary patency at 1 year. A retrospective record review identified patients undergoing initial SFA stenting between January 1, 2010, and February 1, 2012. Medical records were reviewed to collect data on demographics, comorbidities, indication for the procedure, TransAtlantic Inter-Society Consensus (TASC) II severity, and primary patency. The interventional radiology database and hospital accounting database were queried to determine cost drivers of SFA stenting. Procedure supply cost included any item with a bar code used for the procedure. Associations between cost drivers and lesion characteristics were explored. Primary patency was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a log-rank test. During the study period, 95 patients underwent stenting in 98 extremities; of these, 61% of SFA stents were performed for claudication, with 80% of lesions classified as TASC II A or B. Primary patency at 1 year was 79% for the entire cohort. The mean total cost per case was $10,333. Increased procedure supply cost was associated with adjunct device use, the number of stents, and TASC II severity. Despite higher costs of treating more complex lesions, primary patency at 1 year was similar at 80% for high-cost (supply cost >$4000) vs 78% for low-cost (supply cost <$4000) interventions. SFA lesion complexity, as defined by TASC II severity, drives the cost of endovascular interventions but does not appear to disadvantage patency at 1 year. Reimbursement agencies should consider incorporating disease severity into reimbursement algorithms for lower extremity endovascular interventions. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk adjustment for health care financing in chronic disease: what are we missing by failing to account for disease severity?

PubMed

Omachi, Theodore A; Gregorich, Steven E; Eisner, Mark D; Penaloza, Renee A; Tolstykh, Irina V; Yelin, Edward H; Iribarren, Carlos; Dudley, R Adams; Blanc, Paul D

2013-08-01

Adjustment for differing risks among patients is usually incorporated into newer payment approaches, and current risk models rely on age, sex, and diagnosis codes. It is unknown the extent to which controlling additionally for disease severity improves cost prediction. Failure to adjust for within-disease variation may create incentives to avoid sicker patients. We address this issue among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cost and clinical data were collected prospectively from 1202 COPD patients at Kaiser Permanente. Baseline analysis included age, sex, and diagnosis codes (using the Diagnostic Cost Group Relative Risk Score) in a general linear model predicting total medical costs in the following year. We determined whether adding COPD severity measures-forced expiratory volume in 1 second, 6-Minute Walk Test, dyspnea score, body mass index, and BODE Index (composite of the other 4 measures)-improved predictions. Separately, we examined household income as a cost predictor. Mean costs were $12,334/y. Controlling for Relative Risk Score, each ½ SD worsening in COPD severity factor was associated with $629 to $1135 in increased annual costs (all P<0.01). The lowest stratum of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (<30% normal) predicted $4098 (95% confidence interval, $576-$8773) additional costs. Household income predicted excess costs when added to the baseline model (P=0.038), but this became nonsignificant when also incorporating the BODE Index. Disease severity measures explain significant cost variations beyond current risk models, and adding them to such models appears important to fairly compensate organizations that accept responsibility for sicker COPD patients. Appropriately controlling for disease severity also accounts for costs otherwise associated with lower socioeconomic status.

Cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd

2017-01-01

With a growing number of individuals retaining their teeth lifelong, often with periodontitis-induced root surface exposure, there is the need for cost-effective management strategies for root caries lesions. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments. Patients were simulated over 10 years using a Markov model. Four treatments were compared: No treatment, daily 225-800ppm fluoride rinses, chlorhexidine (CHX) varnish (2×/year), silver diamine fluoride (SDF) varnish (2×/year). Data from a systematic review were submitted to network meta-analysis for inferring relative efficacies of treatments. The health outcome was years of teeth being free of root caries. A mixed public-private payer perspective within 2016 German healthcare was taken, with costs being estimated from fee item catalogues or based on market prices. Populations with different numbers of teeth and tooth-level risks were modelled. Monte-Carlo microsimulations, univariate- and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. In populations with 16 teeth at risk and low tooth-level risk for root caries, providing no preventive treatment was least costly, but also least effective (130 Euro, 144 years). SDF ranked next, being more costly (180 Euro), but also more effective (151 years). Payers willing to invest 8.30 Euro per root caries-free tooth-year found SDF most cost-effective. CHX varnish and fluoride rinse were not cost-effective. In populations with more teeth and high tooth-level risk, SDF was the most effective and least costly option. Root caries preventive treatments (like SDF) are effective and might even be cost-saving in high risk populations. Application of SDF can be recommended as a cost-saving treatment for prevention of root caries in patients with high risk of root caries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling for regulatory benefit-cost analysis: application to the Western hemisphere travel initiative in the land environment.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom

2008-04-01

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.

Enhancing Cost Realism through Risk-Driven Contracting: Designing Incentive Fees Based on Probabilistic Cost Estimates

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

Comparison of Management Practices in the Army, Navy, and Air Force 142Defense ARJ, April 2012, Vol. 19 No. 2 : 133–160 It appears the pendulum may be...the cost risk for requiring greater innovation. However, this natural flattening trend also leads to a potential drawback of the risk-driven

Differences in Health Care Costs and Utilization among Adults with Selected Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucker, Larry A.; Clegg, Alan G.

2002-01-01

Examined the relationship between lifestyle-related health risks and health care costs and utilization among young adults. Data collected at a primarily white collar worksite in over 2 years indicated that health risks, particularly obesity, stress, and general lifestyle, were significant predictors of health care costs and utilization among these…

The instant sequencing task: Toward constraint-checking a complex spacecraft command sequence interactively

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, Joan C.; Alkalaj, Leon J.; Schneider, Karl M.; Amador, Arthur V.; Spitale, Joseph N.

1993-01-01

Robotic spacecraft are controlled by sets of commands called 'sequences.' These sequences must be checked against mission constraints. Making our existing constraint checking program faster would enable new capabilities in our uplink process. Therefore, we are rewriting this program to run on a parallel computer. To do so, we had to determine how to run constraint-checking algorithms in parallel and create a new method of specifying spacecraft models and constraints. This new specification gives us a means of representing flight systems and their predicted response to commands which could be used in a variety of applications throughout the command process, particularly during anomaly or high-activity operations. This commonality could reduce operations cost and risk for future complex missions. Lessons learned in applying some parts of this system to the TOPEX/Poseidon mission will be described.

Time-driven activity-based costing to estimate cost of care at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers.

PubMed

Garcia, Jordan A; Mistry, Bipin; Hardy, Stephen; Fracchia, Mary Shannon; Hersh, Cheryl; Wentland, Carissa; Vadakekalam, Joseph; Kaplan, Robert; Hartnick, Christopher J

2017-09-01

Providing high-value healthcare to patients is increasingly becoming an objective for providers including those at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Measuring value has two components: 1) identify relevant health outcomes and 2) determine relevant treatment costs. Via their inherent structure, multidisciplinary care units consolidate care for complex patients. However, their potential impact on decreasing healthcare costs is less clear. The goal of this study was to estimate the potential cost savings of treating patients with laryngeal clefts at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Retrospective chart review. Time-driven activity-based costing was used to estimate the cost of care for patients with laryngeal cleft seen between 2008 and 2013 at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Pediatric Aerodigestive Center. Retrospective chart review was performed to identify clinic utilization by patients as well as patient diet outcomes after treatment. Patients were stratified into neurologically complex and neurologically noncomplex groups. The cost of care for patients requiring surgical intervention was five and three times as expensive of the cost of care for patients not requiring surgery for neurologically noncomplex and complex patients, respectively. Following treatment, 50% and 55% of complex and noncomplex patients returned to normal diet, whereas 83% and 87% of patients experienced improved diets, respectively. Additionally, multidisciplinary team-based care for children with laryngeal clefts potentially achieves 20% to 40% cost savings. These findings demonstrate how time-driven activity-based costing can be used to estimate and compare patient costs in multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. 2c. Laryngoscope, 127:2152-2158, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity

PubMed Central

Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

2017-01-01

In the decades to come, advanced bioweapons could threaten human existence. Although the probability of human extinction from bioweapons may be low, the expected value of reducing the risk could still be large, since such risks jeopardize the existence of all future generations. We provide an overview of biotechnological extinction risk, make some rough initial estimates for how severe the risks might be, and compare the cost-effectiveness of reducing these extinction-level risks with existing biosecurity work. We find that reducing human extinction risk can be more cost-effective than reducing smaller-scale risks, even when using conservative estimates. This suggests that the risks are not low enough to ignore and that more ought to be done to prevent the worst-case scenarios. PMID:28806130

Cost-Effectiveness of Antibody-Based Induction Therapy in Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation in the United States.

PubMed

Gharibi, Zahra; Ayvaci, Mehmet U S; Hahsler, Michael; Giacoma, Tracy; Gaston, Robert S; Tanriover, Bekir

2017-06-01

Induction therapy in deceased donor kidney transplantation is costly, with wide discrepancy in utilization and a limited evidence base, particularly regarding cost-effectiveness. We linked the United States Renal Data System data set to Medicare claims to estimate cumulative costs, graft survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER - cost per additional year of graft survival) within 3 years of transplantation in 19 450 deceased donor kidney transplantation recipients with Medicare as primary payer from 2000 to 2008. We divided the study cohort into high-risk (age > 60 years, panel-reactive antibody > 20%, African American race, Kidney Donor Profile Index > 50%, cold ischemia time > 24 hours) and low-risk (not having any risk factors, comprising approximately 15% of the cohort). After the elimination of dominated options, we estimated expected ICER among induction categories: no-induction, alemtuzumab, rabbit antithymocyte globulin (r-ATG), and interleukin-2 receptor-antagonist. No-induction was the least effective and most costly option in both risk groups. Depletional antibodies (r-ATG and alemtuzumab) were more cost-effective across all willingness-to-pay thresholds in the low-risk group. For the high-risk group and its subcategories, the ICER was very sensitive to the graft survival; overall both depletional antibodies were more cost-effective, mainly for higher willingness to pay threshold (US $100 000 and US $150 000). Rabbit ATG appears to achieve excellent cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (80% of the recipients) in both risk groups at US $50 000 threshold (except age > 60 years). In addition, only r-ATG was associated with graft survival benefit over no-induction category (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.99) in a multivariable Cox regression analysis. Antibody-based induction appears to offer substantial advantages in both cost and outcome compared with no-induction. Overall, depletional induction (preferably r-ATG) appears to offer the greatest benefits.

PMJ panel discussion overview on mask complexities, cost, and cycle time in 32-nm system LSI generation: conflict or concurrent?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosono, Kunihiro; Kato, Kokoro

2008-10-01

This is a report on a panel discussion organized in Photomask Japan 2008, where the challenges about "Mask Complexities, Cost, and Cycle Time in 32-nm System LSI Generation" were addressed to have a look over the possible solutions from the standpoints of chipmaker, commercial mask shop, DA tool vendor and equipments makers. The wrap-up is as follows: Mask complexities justify the mask cost, while the acceptable increase rate of 32nm-mask cost significantly differs between mask suppliers or users side. The efficiency progress by new tools or DFM has driven their cycle-time reductions. Mask complexities and cost will be crucial issues prior to cycle time, and there seems to be linear correlation between them. Controlling complexity and cycle time requires developing a mix of advanced technologies, and especially for cost reduction, shot prices in writers and processing rates in inspection tools have been improved remarkably by tool makers. In addition, activities of consortium in Japan (Mask D2I) are expected to enhance the total optimization of mask design, writing and inspection. The cycle-time reduction potentially drives the lowering of mask cost, and, on the other, the pattern complexities and tighter mask specifications get in the way to 32nm generation as well as the nano-economics and market challenges. There are still many difficult problems in mask manufacturing now, and we are sure to go ahead to overcome a 32nm hurdle with the advances of technologies and collaborations by not only technologies but also finance.

48 CFR 217.7404-6 - Allowable profit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... ensure the profit allowed reflects— (a) Any reduced cost risk to the contractor for costs incurred during contract performance before negotiation of the final price; (b) The contractor's reduced cost risk for costs incurred during performance of the remainder of the contract; and (c) The requirements at 215.404...

Cost-effectiveness of vaccination against invasive pneumococcal disease among people 50 through 64 years of age: role of comorbid conditions and race.

PubMed

Sisk, Jane E; Whang, William; Butler, Jay C; Sneller, Vishnu-Priya; Whitney, Cynthia G

2003-06-17

Guidelines are increasingly recommending preventive services starting at 50 years of age, and policymakers are considering such a recommendation for pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination. The finding that pneumococcal vaccination is cost-saving for people 65 years of age or older raises the question of the vaccination's implications for other older adults, especially black people, whose disease incidence exceeds that of nonblack people, and those with high-risk conditions. To assess the implications of vaccinating black and nonblack people 50 through 64 years of age against invasive pneumococcal disease. Cost-effectiveness analysis. Published literature for vaccination effectiveness and cost estimates; data on disease incidence and case-fatality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hypothetical cohort 50 through 64 years of age with the 1995 U.S. age distribution. Lifetime. Societal. Pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination compared with no vaccination. Incremental medical costs and health effects, in quality-adjusted life-years per vaccinee. Vaccination saved medical costs and improved health among high-risk black people (27.55 dollars savings per vaccinee) and nonblack people (5.92 dollars savings per vaccinee), excluding survivors' future costs. For low-risk black and nonblack people and the overall general population, vaccination cost 2477 dollars, 8195 dollars, and 3434 dollars, respectively, to gain 1 year of healthy life. Excluding survivors' future costs, in the general immunocompetent population, cost per quality-adjusted life-year in global worst-case results ranged from 21 513 dollars for black people to 68 871 dollars for nonblack people; in the high-risk population, cost ranged from 11 548 dollars for black people to 39 000 dollars for nonblack people. In the global best case, vaccination was cost-saving for black and nonblack people in the general immunocompetent and high-risk populations, excluding survivors' future costs. The cost-effectiveness range was narrower in probabilistic sensitivity analyses, with 95% probabilistic intervals ranging from cost-saving to 1594 dollars for black people and from cost-saving to 12 273 dollars for nonblack people in the general immunocompetent population. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year for low-risk people with case-fatality rates from 1998 were 2477 dollars for black people and 8195 dollars for nonblack people, excluding survivors' medical costs. These results support the current recommendation to vaccinate high-risk people and provide useful information for considering extending the recommendation to the general population 50 through 64 years of age. Lack of evidence about the effectiveness of revaccination for people 65 years of age or older, when disease risks are higher, argues for further research to guide vaccination policy.

Hidden costs associated with the universal application of risk management in maternity care.

PubMed

McIntyre, Meredith J; Chapman, Ysanne; Francis, Karen

2011-05-01

This paper presents a critical analysis of risk management in maternity care and the hidden costs associated with the practice in healthy women. Issues of quality and safety are driving an increased emphasis by health services on risk management in maternity care. Medical risk in pregnancy is known to benefit 15% or less of all pregnancies. Risk management applied to the remaining 85% of healthy women results in the management of risk in the absence of risk. The health cost to mothers and babies and the economic burden on the overall health system of serious morbidity has been omitted from calculations comparing costs of uncomplicated caesarean birth and uncomplicated vaginal birth. The understanding that elective caesarean birth is cost-neutral when compared to a normal vaginal birth has misled practitioners and contributed to over use of the practice. For the purpose of informing the direction of maternity service policy it is necessary to expose the effect the overuse of medical intervention has on the overall capacity of the healthcare system to absorb the increasing demand for operating theatre resources in the absence of clinical need.

[Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal screening for thyroid disease in pregnant women in Spain].

PubMed

Donnay Candil, Sergio; Balsa Barro, José Antonio; Álvarez Hernández, Julia; Crespo Palomo, Carlos; Pérez-Alcántara, Ferrán; Polanco Sánchez, Carlos

2015-01-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of universal screening for thyroid disease in pregnant women in Spain as compared to high risk screening and no screening. A decision-analytic model comparing the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of universal screening versus high risk screening and versus no screening. was used for the pregnancy and postpartum period. Probabilities from randomized controlled trials were considered for adverse obstetrical outcomes. A Markov model was used to assess the lifetime period after the first postpartum year and account for development of overt hypothyroidism. The main assumptions in the model and use of resources were assessed by local clinical experts. The analysis considered direct healthcare costs only. Universal screening gained .011 QALYs over high risk screening and .014 QALYS over no screening. Total direct costs per patient were €5,786 for universal screening, €5,791 for high risk screening, and €5,781 for no screening. Universal screening was dominant compared to risk-based screening and a very cost-effective alternative as compared to no screening. Use of universal screening instead of high risk screening would result in €2,653,854 annual savings for the Spanish National Health System. Universal screening for thyroid disease in pregnant women in the first trimester is dominant in Spain as compared to risk-based screening, and is cost-effective as compared to no screening (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €374 per QALY). Moreover, it allows diagnosing and treating cases of clinical and subclinical hypothyroidism that may not be detected when only high-risk women are screened. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Cost effectiveness of a systematic guidelines-based approach to the prevention and management of vascular disease in a primary care setting.

PubMed

Kamboj, Laveena; Oh, Paul; Levine, Mitchell; Kammila, Srinu; Casey, William; Harterre, Don; Goeree, Ron

2016-01-15

In Ontario, Canada, the Comprehensive Vascular Disease Prevention and Management Initiative (CVDPMI) was undertaken to improve the vascular health in communities. The CVDPMI significantly improved cardiovascular (CV) risk factor profiles from baseline to follow-up visits including the 10 year Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Although the CVDPMI improved CV risk, the economic value of this program had not been evaluated. We examined the cost effectiveness of the CVDPMI program compared to no CVDPMI program in adult patients identified at risk for an initial or subsequent vascular event in a primary care setting. A one year and a ten year cost effectiveness analyses were conducted. To determine the uncertainty around the cost per life year gained ratio, a non-parametric bootstrap analysis was conducted. The overall population base case analysis at one year resulted in a cost per CV event avoided of $70,423. FRS subgroup analyses showed the high risk cohort (FRS >20%) had an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) that was dominant. In the moderate risk subgroup (FRS 10%-20%) the ICER was $47,439 per CV event avoided and the low risk subgroup (FRS <10%) showed a highly cost ineffective result of greater than $5 million per CV event avoided. The ten year analysis resulted in a dominant ICER. At one year, the CVDPMI program is economically acceptable for patients at moderate to high risk for CV events. The CVDPMI results in increased life expectancy at an incremental cost saving to the healthcare system over a ten year period. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aviation Security: A Case for Risk-Based Passenger Screening

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

5 3. Threat Uncertainty ..............................................................................7 4. Increased Risk and Cost ...Airport Checkpoints .....................................131 ix 2. Technology Integration and Implementation Costs .....................131 3...Background Investigations and Sustaining Program Costs ........133 D. AREAS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

Cost of ventral hernia repair using biologic or synthetic mesh.

PubMed

Totten, Crystal F; Davenport, Daniel L; Ward, Nicholas D; Roth, J Scott

2016-06-15

Patients undergoing ventral hernia repair (VHR) with biologic mesh (BioM) have higher hospital costs compared with synthetic mesh (SynM). This study compares 90-d pre- and post-VHR hospital costs (180-d) among BioM and SynM based on infection risk. This retrospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program study matched patient perioperative risk with resource utilization cost for a consecutive series of VHR repairs. Patient infection risks, clinical and financial outcomes were compared in unmatched SynM (n = 303) and BioM (n = 72) groups. Propensity scores were used to match 35 SynM and BioM pairs of cases with similar infection risk for outcomes analysis. BioM patients in the unmatched group were older with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) and wound classification, and they more frequently underwent open repairs for recurrent hernias. Wound surgical site infections were more frequent in unmatched BioM patients (P = 0.001) as were 180-d costs ($43.8k versus $14.0k, P < 0.001). Propensity matching resulted in 31 clean cases. In these low-risk patients, wound occurrences and readmissions were identical, but 180-d costs remained higher ($31.8k versus $15.5k, P < 0.001). There were no differences in hospital 180-d diagnostic, emergency room, intensive care unit, floor, pharmacy, or therapeutic costs. However, 180-d operating room services and supply costs were higher in the BioM group ($21.1k versus $7.1k, P < 0.001). BioM is used more commonly in hernia repairs involving higher wound class and ASA scores and recurrent hernias. Clinical outcomes after low-risk VHRs are similar; SynM utilization in low-risk hernia repairs was more cost-effective. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The High Cost of Complexity in Experimental Design and Data Analysis: Type I and Type II Error Rates in Multiway ANOVA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rachel A.; Levine, Timothy R.; Lachlan, Kenneth A.; Fediuk, Thomas A.

2002-01-01

Notes that the availability of statistical software packages has led to a sharp increase in use of complex research designs and complex statistical analyses in communication research. Reports a series of Monte Carlo simulations which demonstrate that this complexity may come at a heavier cost than many communication researchers realize. Warns…

[Economic evaluation and rationale for human health risk management decisions].

PubMed

Fokin, S G; Bobkova, T E

2011-01-01

The priority task of human health maintenance and improvement is risk management using the new economic concepts based on the assessment of potential and real human risks from exposure to poor environmental factors and on the estimation of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios. The application of economic tools to manage a human risk makes it possible to assess various measures both as a whole and their individual priority areas, to rank different scenarios in terms of their effectiveness, to estimate costs per unit of risk reduction and benefit increase (damage decrease).

Overview of modern management of patients with critical injury and severe sepsis.

PubMed

Streat, S J; Plank, L D; Hill, G L

2000-06-01

Over the last 10 years there have been substantial changes in the issues confronting intensivists and surgeons caring for critically ill patients. A substantial increase in the number of elderly patients with surgical illness and complex co-morbidity has accompanied the increase in the proportion of elderly in populations in the developed world. This phenomenon has been seen particularly with sepsis. Incidence rates for blunt trauma have declined overall, but the problems of the elderly trauma patient have become more evident. Major elective surgery remains a common indication for short-term intensive care in many countries, but the need for cost-containment has led to increased use of high-dependency care for many such patients. Expectations of both society and clinicians have increased, and this has been reflected in the increased demand for complex procedures (e.g., liver transplantation, cerebral artery aneurysm clipping, aortic aneurysm repair) in patients previously considered at too high risk. Along with these expectations have come pressures on clinicians to reduce costs at the same time as improving clinical outcomes. Despite many advances in the care of critically ill patients with injury or sepsis, mortality, morbidity, and cost remain high; and nutritional support is frequently required. The duration and extent of the metabolic changes seen in response to critical surgical illness and intensive care treatments have become better characterized. Although some of the changes in body water and fat are modifiable, loss of large amounts of (functional) protein has been resistant to various strategies so far studied.

Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; Wing, David; Delahaye, Daniel

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

Training users to counteract phishing.

PubMed

Mayhorn, Christopher B; Nyeste, Patrick G

2012-01-01

Phishing is an increasingly more prevalent form of online, social engineered scams that escalate costs and risks to society year to year. This study demonstrates an association between anti-phishing training techniques used in previous research and individual differences which could affect phishing susceptibility. Results indicated that anti-phishing training in both a simple comic and more complex video game form is helpful in decreasing phishing susceptibility as measured by Miss rates for all individuals including college aged and computer savvy participants. Based on the results of the present study, implications for future efforts to combat phishing are discussed.

Response Surface Modeling Tolerance and Inference Error Risk Specifications: Proposed Industry Standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the derivation of an equation for scaling response surface modeling experiments. The equation represents the smallest number of data points required to fit a linear regression polynomial so as to achieve certain specified model adequacy criteria. Specific criteria are proposed which simplify an otherwise rather complex equation, generating a practical rule of thumb for the minimum volume of data required to adequately fit a polynomial with a specified number of terms in the model. This equation and the simplified rule of thumb it produces can be applied to minimize the cost of wind tunnel testing.

Influence of Natural Environments in Spacecraft Design, Development, and Operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Dave

2013-01-01

Spacecraft are growing in complexity and sensitivity to environmental effects. The spacecraft engineer must understand and take these effects into account in building reliable, survivable, and affordable spacecraft. Too much protections, however, means unnecessary expense while too little will potentially lead to early mission loss. The ability to balance cost and risk necessitates an understanding of how the environment impacts the spacecraft and is a critical factor in its design. This presentation is intended to address both the space environment and its effects with the intent of introducing the influence of the environment on spacecraft performance.

Influence of Natural Environments in Spacecraft Design, Development, and Operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Dave

2012-01-01

Spacecraft are growing in complexity and sensitivity to environmental effects. The spacecraft engineer must understand and take these effects into account in building reliable, survivable, and affordable spacecraft. Too much protections, however, means unnecessary expense while too little will potentially lead to early mission loss. The ability to balance cost and risk necessitates an understanding of how the environment impacts the spacecraft and is a critical factor in its design. This presentation is intended to address both the space environment and its effects with the intent of introducing the influence of the environment on spacecraft performance.

[Allergic disease--pollen allergy and climate change].

PubMed

Sommer, Janne; Plaschke, Peter; Poulsen, Lars K

2009-10-26

Pollen allergy currently affects a fifth of the population. A warmer climate will lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. In addition, a warmer climate increases the risk of proliferation of new plants with well-known allergenic pollens like ragweed, plane tree and wall pellitory, which have not previously caused allergy in Denmark. The consequences will be more people with hay fever and pollen asthma, longer allergy seasons and an increase in the severity of symptoms, disease-related costs and demands on health care for diagnosis and treatment of more complex allergies.

EMI / EMC Design for Class D Payloads (Resource Prospector / NIRVSS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forgione, Josh; Benton, Joshua Eric; Thompson, Sarah; Colaprete, Anthony

2015-01-01

EMI/EMC techniques are applied to a Class D instrument (NIRVSS) to achieve low noise performance and reduce risk of EMI/EMC testing failures and/or issues during system integration and test. Basic techniques are not terribly expensive or complex, but do require close coordination between electrical and mechanical staff early in the design process. Low-cost methods to test subsystems on the bench without renting an EMI chamber are discussed. This method was applied to the NIRVSS instrument and achieved improvements up to 59dB on conducted emissions measurements between hardware revisions.

Disasters as a necessary part of benefit-cost analyses.

PubMed

Mark, R K; Stuart-Alexander, D E

1977-09-16

Benefit-cost analyses for water projects generally have not included the expected costs (residual risk) of low-probability disasters such as dam failures, impoundment-induced earthquakes, and landslides. Analysis of the history of these types of events demonstrates that dam failures are not uncommon and that the probability of a reservoir-triggered earth-quake increases with increasing reservoir depth. Because the expected costs from such events can be significant and risk is project-specific, estimates should be made for each project. The cost of expected damage from a "high-risk" project in an urban area could be comparable to project benefits.

The effect of TISSEEL fibrin sealant on seroma formation following complex abdominal wall hernia repair: a single institutional review and derived cost analysis.

PubMed

Azoury, S C; Rodriguez-Unda, N; Soares, K C; Hicks, C W; Baltodano, P A; Poruk, K E; Hu, Q L; Cooney, C M; Cornell, P; Burce, K; Eckhauser, F E

2015-12-01

The authors evaluated the ability of a fibrin sealant (TISSEEL™: Baxter Healthcare Corp, Deerfield, IL, USA) to reduce the incidence of post-operative seroma following abdominal wall hernia repair. We performed a 4-year retrospective review of patients undergoing abdominal wall hernia repair, with and without TISSEEL, by a single surgeon (FEE) at The Johns Hopkins Hospital. Demographics, surgical risk factors, operative data and 30-day outcomes, including wound complications and related interventions, were compared. The quantity and cost of Tisseel per case was reviewed. A total of 250 patients were evaluated: 127 in the TISSEEL group and 123 in the non-TISSEEL control group. The average age for both groups was 56.6 years (P = 0.97). The majority of patients were female (TISSEEL 52.8%, non-TISSEEL 56.1%, P = 0.59) and ASA Class III (TISSEEL 56.7%, non-TISSEEL 58.5%, P = 0.40). There was no difference in the average defect size for both groups (TISSEEL 217 ± 187.6 cm(2), non-TISSEEL 161.3 ± 141.5 cm(2), P = 0.36). Surgical site occurrences occurred in 18.1% of the TISSEEL and 13% of the non-TISSEEL group (P = 0.27). There was a trend towards an increased incidence of seroma in the TISSEEL group (TISSEEL 11%, non-TISSEEL 4.9%, P = 0.07). A total of $124,472.50 was spent on TISSEEL, at an average cost of $995.78 per case. In the largest study to date, TISSEEL™ application offered no advantage for the reduction of post-operative seroma formation following complex abdominal hernia repair. Moreover, the use of this sealant was associated with significant costs.

Why do health technology assessment coverage recommendations for the same drugs differ across settings? Applying a mixed methods framework to systematically compare orphan drug decisions in four European countries.

PubMed

Nicod, Elena

2017-07-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) coverage recommendations differ across countries for the same drugs. Unlike previous studies, this study adopts a mixed methods research design to investigate, in a systematic manner, these differences. HTA recommendations for ten orphan drugs appraised in England (NICE), Scotland (SMC), Sweden (TLV) and France (HAS) (N = 35) were compared using a validated methodological framework that breaks down these complex decision processes into stages facilitating their understanding, analysis and comparison, namely: (1) the clinical/cost-effectiveness evidence, (2) its interpretation (e.g. part of the deliberative process) and (3) influence on the final decision. This allowed qualitative and quantitative identification of the criteria driving recommendations and highlighted cross-country differences. Six out of ten drugs received diverging HTA recommendations. Reasons for cross-country differences included heterogeneity in the evidence appraised, in the interpretation of the same evidence, and in the different ways of dealing with the same uncertainty. These may have been influenced by agency-specific evidentiary, risk and value preferences, or stakeholder input. "Other considerations" (e.g. severity, orphan status) and other decision modulators (e.g. patient access schemes, lower discount rates, restrictions, re-assessments) also rendered uncertainty and cost-effectiveness estimates more acceptable. The different HTA approaches (clinical versus cost-effectiveness) and ways identified of dealing with orphan drug particularities also had implications on the final decisions. This research contributes to better understanding the drivers of these complex decisions and why countries make different decisions. It also contributed to identifying those factors beyond the standard clinical and cost-effectiveness tools used in HTA, and their role in shaping these decisions.

FDA's proposed ban on trans fats: How do the costs and benefits stack up?

PubMed

Cohen, Joshua T

2014-03-01

The goal of this commentary was to compare the benefits and costs of the US Food and Drug Administration's proposed ban on artificial trans fats in US food versus other public health risks and interventions. This analysis assessed the remaining risk posed by artificial trans fats versus other risks, comparing them in terms of: (1) population disease burden (prevention of lost life-years and decreased quality of life, aggregated and expressed as quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]); (2) individual mortality risks for other "voluntary" activities; and (3) cost-effectiveness, which is the unit cost incurred by an intervention per QALY gained. The population impact of remaining trans fats is small compared with many other risks. Conversely, lifetime individual risks are comparable to other individual risks that might be considered notable. Finally, the ban achieves public health gains at low to no cost. The US Food and Drug Administration's ban on trans fats is sensible from the perspective of economic efficiency. Comparing the health risk addressed and the efficiency of the ban with other benchmarks can help decision makers and the population to better evaluate it. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Preventing and Treating Peri-Implantitis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Tu, Yu-Kang; Stolpe, Michael

2015-09-01

A large number of treatments for peri-implantitis are available, but their cost-effectiveness remains uncertain. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of preventing and treating peri-implantitis. A Markov model was constructed that followed each implant over 20 years. Supportive implant therapy (SIT) for managing peri-implant mucositis and preventing development of peri-implantitis was either provided or not. Risk of peri-implantitis was assumed to be affected by SIT and the patient's risk profile. If peri-implantitis occurred, 11 treatment strategies (non-surgical or surgical debridement alone or combined with adjunct therapies) were compared. Treatments and risk profiles determined disease progression. Modeling was performed based on systematically collected data. Primary outcomes were costs and proportion of lost implants, as assessed via Monte Carlo microsimulations. Not providing SIT and performing only non-surgical debridement was both least costly and least effective. The next best (more costly and effective) option was to provide SIT and perform surgical debridement (additional 0.89 euros per 1% fewer implants lost). The most effective option included bone grafts, membranes, and laser treatment (56 euros per 1%). For patients at high risk, the cost-effectiveness of SIT increased, whereas in low-risk groups, a cost-optimized strategy was cost-effective. Although clinical decision-making will be guided mainly by clinical condition, cost-effectiveness analyses might add another perspective. Based on these findings, an unambiguous comparative effectiveness ranking was not established. However, cost-effectiveness was predominantly determined by provision of SIT and initial treatment costs. Transferability of these findings to other healthcare systems needs further confirmation.

Heart failure disease management programs: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Heidenreich, Paul A; Weinstein, Milton C; Fonarow, Gregg C

2008-02-01

Heart failure (HF) disease management programs have shown impressive reductions in hospitalizations and mortality, but in studies limited to short time frames and high-risk patient populations. Current guidelines thus only recommend disease management targeted to high-risk patients with HF. This study applied a new technique to infer the degree to which clinical trials have targeted patients by risk based on observed rates of hospitalization and death. A Markov model was used to assess the incremental life expectancy and cost of providing disease management for high-risk to low-risk patients. Sensitivity analyses of various long-term scenarios and of reduced effectiveness in low-risk patients were also considered. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of extending coverage to all patients was $9700 per life-year gained in the base case. In aggregate, universal coverage almost quadrupled life-years saved as compared to coverage of only the highest quintile of risk. A worst case analysis with simultaneous conservative assumptions yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $110,000 per life-year gained. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 99.74% of possible incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were <$50,000 per life-year gained. Heart failure disease management programs are likely cost-effective in the long-term along the whole spectrum of patient risk. Health gains could be extended by enrolling a broader group of patients with HF in disease management.

[Cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin in patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk in Spain].

PubMed

Cosin Sales, Juan; Fuentes Jiménez, Francisco José; Mantilla Morató, Teresa; Ruiz, Emilio; Becerra, Virginia; Aceituno, Susana; Ferrario, Maria Giovanna; Lizán, Luis; Gracia, Alfredo

2015-01-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin in Spain, according to the European guidelines for the treatment of dyslipidemias in patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk. A Markov long-term cost-effectiveness model of rosuvastatin versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin in patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk defined according to 5 factors (sex, age, smoking habit, baseline cholesterol level, and systolic blood pressure) using the SCORE system. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is expressed in euros per quality adjusted life years and is calculated according to the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. Rosuvastatin is associated with a greater health benefit than the other statins across the considered profiles. Rosuvastatin is cost-effective compared to simvastatin in patients with SCORE risk ≥8% in females and ≥6% in males, while between 5% and the indicated values its cost-effectiveness is conditional to the patient baseline c-LDL level. Rosuvastatin is more cost-effective versus atorvastatin in female profiles associated with a SCORE risk≥11% and male profiles with SCORE risk ≥10%. Rosuvastatin is superior versus pitavastatin in both female and male profiles with high and very high cardiovascular risk. Rosuvastatin is a cost-effective therapy in the treatment of hypercholesterolemia versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin, especially in specific profiles of patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk factors, according to the SCORE system, in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

The impact of changing dental needs on cost savings from fluoridation.

PubMed

Campain, A C; Mariño, R J; Wright, F A C; Harrison, D; Bailey, D L; Morgan, M V

2010-03-01

Although community water fluoridation has been one of the cornerstone strategies for the prevention and control of dental caries, questions are still raised regarding its cost-effectiveness. This study assessed the impact of changing dental needs on the cost savings from community water fluoridation in Australia. Net costs were estimated as Costs((programme)) minus Costs((averted caries).) Averted costs were estimated as the product of caries increment in non-fluoridated community, effectiveness of fluoridation and the cost of a carious surface. Modelling considered four age-cohorts: 6-20, 21-45, 46-65 and 66+ years and three time points 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Cost of a carious surface was estimated by conventional and complex methods. Real discount rates (4, 7 (base) and 10%) were utilized. With base-case assumptions, the average annual cost savings/person, using Australian dollars at the 2005 level, ranged from $56.41 (1970s) to $17.75 (1990s) (conventional method) and from $249.45 (1970s) to $69.86 (1990s) (complex method). Under worst-case assumptions fluoridation remained cost-effective with cost savings ranging from $24.15 (1970s) to $3.87 (1990s) (conventional method) and $107.85 (1970s) and $24.53 (1990s) (complex method). For 66+ years cohort (1990s) fluoridation did not show a cost saving, but costs/person were marginal. Community water fluoridation remains a cost-effective preventive measure in Australia.

Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad; Hall, Jim W.; Guillod, Benoit P.

2018-03-01

Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes. In this paper, we expand risk-based decision analysis to explore possible ways of enhancing robustness in engineered water resources systems under different risk attitudes. Risk is measured as the expected annual cost of water use restrictions, while robustness is interpreted in the decision-theoretic sense as the ability of a water resource system to maintain performance—expressed as a tolerable risk of water use restrictions—under a wide range of possible future conditions. Linking risk attitudes with robustness allows stakeholders to explicitly trade-off incremental increases in robustness with investment costs for a given level of risk. We illustrate the framework through a case study of London's water supply system using state-of-the -art regional climate simulations to inform the estimation of risk and robustness.

Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of Conservative or Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment Guidelines in Adults Aged 35-74 Years: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model.

PubMed

Moise, Nathalie; Huang, Chen; Rodgers, Anthony; Kohli-Lynch, Ciaran N; Tzong, Keane Y; Coxson, Pamela G; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Goldman, Lee; Moran, Andrew E

2016-07-01

The population health effect and cost-effectiveness of implementing intensive blood pressure goals in high-cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk adults have not been described. Using the CVD Policy Model, CVD events, treatment costs, quality-adjusted life years, and drug and monitoring costs were simulated over 2016 to 2026 for hypertensive patients aged 35 to 74 years. We projected the effectiveness and costs of hypertension treatment according to the 2003 Joint National Committee (JNC)-7 or 2014 JNC8 guidelines, and then for adults aged ≥50 years, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of adding an intensive goal of systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg for patients with CVD, chronic kidney disease, or 10-year CVD risk ≥15%. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios <$50 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained were considered cost-effective. JNC7 strategies treat more patients and are more costly to implement compared with JNC8 strategies. Adding intensive systolic blood pressure goals for high-risk patients prevents an estimated 43 000 and 35 000 annual CVD events incremental to JNC8 and JNC7, respectively. Intensive strategies save costs in men and are cost-effective in women compared with JNC8 alone. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained, JNC8+intensive had the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in women (82%) and JNC7+intensive the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in men (100%). Assuming higher drug and monitoring costs, adding intensive goals for high-risk patients remained consistently cost-effective in men, but not always in women. Among patients aged 35 to 74 years, adding intensive blood pressure goals for high-risk groups to current national hypertension treatment guidelines prevents additional CVD deaths while saving costs provided that medication costs are controlled. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Dynamic Cost Risk Assessment for Controlling the Cost of Naval Vessels

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-23

for each individual RRA at the start of the project are depicted in Figures 2a and 2b, respectively. The PDFs are multimodal and cannot be...underestimates cost. 7 Probabilistic cost analysis A physician metaphor Adapted from Yacov Y. Haimes, NPS 2007 8 Dynamic cost risk management A physician... metaphor Adapted from Yacov Y. Haimes, NPS 2007 9 Sources of cost uncertainty Macroscopic analysis Economic, Materials & Labor, Learning rates

Integrating Genetics and Social Science: Genetic Risk Scores

PubMed Central

Belsky, Daniel W.; Israel, Salomon

2014-01-01

The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public-use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry. PMID:25343363

42 CFR 438.812 - Costs under risk and nonrisk contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS MANAGED CARE Conditions for Federal Financial Participation § 438.812 Costs under risk and nonrisk contracts. (a) Under a risk contract, the total amount the...

Harnessing expert knowledge: Defining a Bayesian network decision model with limited data-Model structure for the vibration qualification problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rizzo, Davinia B.; Blackburn, Mark R.

As systems become more complex, systems engineers rely on experts to inform decisions. There are few experts and limited data in many complex new technologies. This challenges systems engineers as they strive to plan activities such as qualification in an environment where technical constraints are coupled with the traditional cost, risk, and schedule constraints. Bayesian network (BN) models provide a framework to aid systems engineers in planning qualification efforts with complex constraints by harnessing expert knowledge and incorporating technical factors. By quantifying causal factors, a BN model can provide data about the risk of implementing a decision supplemented with informationmore » on driving factors. This allows a systems engineer to make informed decisions and examine “what-if” scenarios. This paper discusses a novel process developed to define a BN model structure based primarily on expert knowledge supplemented with extremely limited data (25 data sets or less). The model was developed to aid qualification decisions—specifically to predict the suitability of six degrees of freedom (6DOF) vibration testing for qualification. The process defined the model structure with expert knowledge in an unbiased manner. Finally, validation during the process execution and of the model provided evidence the process may be an effective tool in harnessing expert knowledge for a BN model.« less

Harnessing expert knowledge: Defining a Bayesian network decision model with limited data-Model structure for the vibration qualification problem

DOE PAGES

Rizzo, Davinia B.; Blackburn, Mark R.

2018-03-30

As systems become more complex, systems engineers rely on experts to inform decisions. There are few experts and limited data in many complex new technologies. This challenges systems engineers as they strive to plan activities such as qualification in an environment where technical constraints are coupled with the traditional cost, risk, and schedule constraints. Bayesian network (BN) models provide a framework to aid systems engineers in planning qualification efforts with complex constraints by harnessing expert knowledge and incorporating technical factors. By quantifying causal factors, a BN model can provide data about the risk of implementing a decision supplemented with informationmore » on driving factors. This allows a systems engineer to make informed decisions and examine “what-if” scenarios. This paper discusses a novel process developed to define a BN model structure based primarily on expert knowledge supplemented with extremely limited data (25 data sets or less). The model was developed to aid qualification decisions—specifically to predict the suitability of six degrees of freedom (6DOF) vibration testing for qualification. The process defined the model structure with expert knowledge in an unbiased manner. Finally, validation during the process execution and of the model provided evidence the process may be an effective tool in harnessing expert knowledge for a BN model.« less

Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

PubMed

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open-source software implementing the model can be used to transfer our modelling approach to wildlife-vehicle collisions elsewhere.

Large-Scale Model-Based Assessment of Deer-Vehicle Collision Risk

PubMed Central

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer–vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on 74,000 deer–vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer–vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer–vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer–vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment–deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new “deer–vehicle collision index” for deer management. We show that the risk of deer–vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer–vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer–vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open-source software implementing the model can be used to transfer our modelling approach to wildlife–vehicle collisions elsewhere. PMID:22359535

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in order to examine the impact of uncertainties. Finally, the need for further analysis, data collection, or refinement is determined. The first steps of defining the problem and the objectives are critical to constructing an informative decision analysis. Such steps must be undertaken with participation from experts, decision-makers, and stakeholders (defined here as "decision participants"). The basic problem here can be framed as: “What is the best strategy to manage risk associated with NEOs?” Some high-level objectives might be to minimize: mortality and injuries, damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power, communications and food distribution), ecosystem damage, property damage, ungrounded media and public speculation, resources expended, and overall cost. Another valuable objective would be to maximize inter-agency/government coordination. Some of these objectives (e.g., “minimize mortality”) are readily quantified (e.g., deaths and injuries averted). Others are less so (e.g., “maximize inter-agency/government coordination”), but these can be scaled. Objectives may be inversely related: e.g., a strategy that minimizes mortality may cost more. They are also unlikely to be weighted equally. Defining objectives and assessing their relative weight and interactions requires early engagement with decision participants. High-level decisions include whether to deflect a NEO, when to deflect, what is the best alternative for deflection/destruction, and disaster management strategies if an impact occurs. Important influences include, for example: NEO characteristics (orbital characteristics, diameter, mass, spin and composition), impact probability and location, interval between discovery and projected impact date, interval between discovery and deflection target date, costs of information collection, costs and technological feasibility of deflection alternatives, risks of deflection campaigns, requirements for inter-agency and international cooperation, and timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

Space Suit Performance: Methods for Changing the Quality of Quantitative Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowley, Matthew; Benson, Elizabeth; Rajulu, Sudhakar

2014-01-01

NASA is currently designing a new space suit capable of working in deep space and on Mars. Designing a suit is very difficult and often requires trade-offs between performance, cost, mass, and system complexity. To verify that new suits will enable astronauts to perform to their maximum capacity, prototype suits must be built and tested with human subjects. However, engineers and flight surgeons often have difficulty understanding and applying traditional representations of human data without training. To overcome these challenges, NASA is developing modern simulation and analysis techniques that focus on 3D visualization. Early understanding of actual performance early on in the design cycle is extremely advantageous to increase performance capabilities, reduce the risk of injury, and reduce costs. The primary objective of this project was to test modern simulation and analysis techniques for evaluating the performance of a human operating in extra-vehicular space suits.

Managing a big ground-based astronomy project: the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Gary H.

2008-07-01

TMT is a big science project and its scale is greater than previous ground-based optical/infrared telescope projects. This paper will describe the ideal "linear" project and how the TMT project departs from that ideal. The paper will describe the needed adaptations to successfully manage real world complexities. The progression from science requirements to a reference design, the development of a product-oriented Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and an organization that parallels the WBS, the implementation of system engineering, requirements definition and the progression through Conceptual Design to Preliminary Design will be summarized. The development of a detailed cost estimate structured by the WBS, and the methodology of risk analysis to estimate contingency fund requirements will be summarized. Designing the project schedule defines the construction plan and, together with the cost model, provides the basis for executing the project guided by an earned value performance measurement system.

Comm for Small Sats: The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) Communications Subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuroda, Vanessa M.; Allard, Mark R.; Lewis, Brian; Lindsay, Michael

2014-01-01

September 6, 2013 through April 21, 2014 marked the mission lifecycle of the highly successful LADEE (Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer) mission that orbited the moon to gather detailed information about the thin lunar atmosphere. This paper will address the development, risks, and lessons learned regarding the specification, selection, and deployment of LADEE's unique Radio Frequency based communications subsystem and supporting tools. This includes the Electronic Ground Support Equipment (EGSE), test regimes, and RF dynamic link analysis environment developed to meet mission requirements for small, flexible, low cost, high performance, fast turnaround, and reusable spacecraft communication capabilities with easy and reliable application to future similar low cost small satellite missions over widely varying needs for communications and communications system complexity. LADEE communication subsystem key components, architecture, and mission performance will be reviewed toward applicability for future mission planning, design, and utilization.

A novel evaluation method for building construction project based on integrated information entropy with reliability theory.

PubMed

Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei

2013-01-01

Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

Impact of Financial Structure on the Cost of Solar Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendelsohn, M.; Kreycik, C.; Bird, L.

2012-03-01

To stimulate investment in renewable energy generation projects, the federal government developed a series of support structures that reduce taxes for eligible investors--the investment tax credit, the production tax credit, and accelerated depreciation. The nature of these tax incentives often requires an outside investor and a complex financial arrangement to allocate risk and reward among the parties. These financial arrangements are generally categorized as 'advanced financial structures.' Among renewable energy technologies, advanced financial structures were first widely deployed by the wind industry and are now being explored by the solar industry to support significant scale-up in project development. This reportmore » describes four of the most prevalent financial structures used by the renewable sector and evaluates the impact of financial structure on energy costs for utility-scale solar projects that use photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies.« less

Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Mark A. Finney; David E. Calkin; Michael S. Hand; Mark J. Browne; Martin Halek; Karen C. Short; Isaac C. Grenfell

2015-01-01

Wildfire activity and escalating suppression costs continue to threaten the financial health of federal land management agencies. In order to minimize and effectively manage the cost of financial risk, agencies need the ability to quantify that risk. A fundamental aim of this research effort, therefore, is to develop a process for generating risk-based metrics for...

Healthcare costs and utilization associated with high-risk prescription opioid use: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Kharrazi, Hadi; Bodycombe, Dave; Weiner, Jonathan P; Alexander, G Caleb

2018-05-16

Previous studies on high-risk opioid use have only focused on patients diagnosed with an opioid disorder. This study evaluates the impact of various high-risk prescription opioid use groups on healthcare costs and utilization. This is a retrospective cohort study using QuintilesIMS health plan claims with independent variables from 2012 and outcomes from 2013. We included a population-based sample of 191,405 non-elderly adults with known sex, one or more opioid prescriptions, and continuous enrollment in 2012 and 2013. Three high-risk opioid use groups were identified in 2012 as (1) persons with 100+ morphine milligram equivalents per day for 90+ consecutive days (chronic users); (2) persons with 30+ days of concomitant opioid and benzodiazepine use (concomitant users); and (3) individuals diagnosed with an opioid use disorder. The length of time that a person had been characterized as a high-risk user was measured. Three healthcare costs (total, medical, and pharmacy costs) and four binary utilization indicators (the top 5% total cost users, the top 5% pharmacy cost users, any hospitalization, and any emergency department visit) derived from 2013 were outcomes. We applied a generalized linear model (GLM) with a log-link function and gamma distribution for costs while logistic regression was employed for utilization indicators. We also adopted propensity score weighting to control for the baseline differences between high-risk and non-high-risk opioid users. Of individuals with one or more opioid prescription, 1.45% were chronic users, 4.81% were concomitant users, and 0.94% were diagnosed as having an opioid use disorder. After adjustment and propensity score weighting, chronic users had statistically significant higher prospective total (40%), medical (3%), and pharmacy (172%) costs. The increases in total, medical, and pharmacy costs associated with concomitant users were 13%, 7%, and 41%, and 28%, 21% and 63% for users with a diagnosed opioid use disorder. Both total and pharmacy costs increased with the length of time characterized as high-risk users, with the increase being statistically significant. Only concomitant users were associated with a higher odds of hospitalization or emergency department use. Individuals with high-risk prescription opioid use have significantly higher healthcare costs and utilization than their counterparts, especially those with chronic high-dose opioid use.

Selective Perioperative Administration of Pasireotide is More Cost-Effective Than Routine Administration for Pancreatic Fistula Prophylaxis.

PubMed

Denbo, Jason W; Slack, Rebecca S; Bruno, Morgan; Cloyd, Jordan M; Prakash, Laura; Fleming, Jason B; Kim, Michael P; Aloia, Thomas A; Vauthey, Jean-Nicolas; Lee, Jeffrey E; Katz, Matthew H G

2017-04-01

In a randomized trial, pasireotide significantly decreased the incidence and severity of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Subsequent analyses concluded that its routine use is cost-effective. We hypothesized that selective administration of the drug to patients at high risk for POPF would be more cost-effective. Consecutive patients who did not receive pasireotide and underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) or distal pancreatectomy (DP) between July 2011 and January 2014 were distributed into groups based on their risk of POPF using a multivariate recursive partitioning regression tree analysis (RPA) of preoperative clinical factors. The costs of treating hypothetical patients in each risk group were then computed based upon actual institutional hospital costs and previously published relative risk values associated with pasireotide. Among 315 patients who underwent pancreatectomy, grade B/C POPF occurred in 64 (20%). RPA allocated patients who underwent PD into four groups with a risk for grade B/C POPF of 0, 10, 29, or 60% (P < 0.001) on the basis of diagnosis, pancreatic duct diameter, and body mass index. Patients who underwent DP were allocated to three groups with a grade B/C POPF risk of 14, 26, or 44% (P = 0.05) on the basis of pancreatic duct diameter alone. Although the routine administration of pasireotide to all 315 patients would have theoretically saved $30,892 over standard care, restriction of pasireotide to only patients at high risk for POPF would have led to a cost savings of $831,916. Preoperative clinical characteristics can be used to characterize patients' risk for POPF following pancreatectomy. Selective administration of pasireotide only to patients at high risk for grade B/C POPF may maximize the cost-efficacy of prophylactic pasireotide.

The predicted lifetime costs and health consequences of calcium and vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention-the impact of cardiovascular effects.

PubMed

Hagen, G; Wisløff, T; Kristiansen, I S

2016-06-01

Some studies indicate that calcium supplementation increases cardiovascular risk. We assessed whether such effects could counterbalance the fracture benefits from supplementation. Accounting for cardiovascular outcomes, calcium may cause net harm and would not be cost-effective. Clinicians may do well considering cardiovascular effects when prescribing calcium supplementation. Accounting for possible cardiovascular effect of calcium and vitamin D supplementation (CaD), the aims of this study were to assess whether CaD on balance would improve population health and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such supplementation. We created a probabilistic Markov simulation model that was analysed at the individual patient level. We analysed 65-year-old Norwegian women with a 2.3 % 10-year risk of hip fracture and a 9.3 % risk of any major fracture according to the WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®). Consistent with a recent Cochrane review, we assumed that CaD reduces the risk of hip, vertebral, and wrist fractures by 16, 11, and 5 %, respectively. We included the increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke under a no-, medium-, and high-risk scenario. Assuming no cardiovascular effects, CaD supplementation produces improved health outcomes resulting in an incremental gain of 0.0223 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and increases costs by €322 compared with no treatment (cost-effectiveness ratio €14,453 per QALY gained). Assuming a Norwegian cost-effectiveness threshold of €60,000 per QALY, CaD is likely to be considered a cost-effective treatment alternative. In a scenario with a medium or high increased risk of cardiovascular events, CaD produces net health losses, respectively, -0.0572 and -0.0784 QALY at additional costs of €481 and €1033. We conclude that the magnitude of potential cardiovascular side effects is crucial for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of CaD supplementation in elderly women.

The epidemiology of bovine respiratory disease: What is the evidence for predisposing factors?

PubMed Central

Taylor, Jared D.; Fulton, Robert W.; Lehenbauer, Terry W.; Step, Douglas L.; Confer, Anthony W.

2010-01-01

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the most costly disease of beef cattle in North America. It is multi-factorial, with a variety of physical and physiological stressors combining to predispose cattle to pneumonia. However, efforts to discern which factors are most important have frequently failed to establish definitive answers. Calves are at highest risk shortly after transport. Risk factors include purchasing from sale barns and commingling. It is unclear whether or not these practices increase susceptibility, increase exposure, or are proxies for poor management. Lighter-weight calves appear to be at greater risk, although this has not been consistent. Persistent infection (PI) with bovine virus diarrhea virus increases BRD occurrence, but it is unclear if PI calves affect other cattle in the feedlot. The complexity of BRD has made it difficult to define involvement of individual factors. Stressors may play a role as “necessary but not sufficient” components, requiring additive effects to cause disease. PMID:21197200

Primary and Secondary HIV Prevention Among Persons with Severe Mental Illness: Recent Findings.

PubMed

Hobkirk, Andréa L; Towe, Sheri L; Lion, Ryan; Meade, Christina S

2015-12-01

Persons with severe mental illness (SMI) have been disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic, with higher rates of HIV prevalence and morbidity than the general population. Recent research has advanced our understanding of the complex factors that influence primary and secondary HIV prevention for those with SMI. Sex risk in this population is associated with socioeconomic factors (e.g., low income, history of verbal violence) and other health risk behaviors (e.g., substance use, no prior HIV testing). Several interventions are effective at reducing risk behavior, and reviews highlight the need for more well-controlled studies that assess long-term outcomes. Recent research has elucidated barriers that interfere with HIV treatment for SMI populations, including individual (e.g., apathy, substance use), social (e.g., stigma), and system factors (e.g., transportation, clinic wait times). Interventions that coordinate HIV care for individuals with SMI show promise as cost-effective methods for improving medication adherence and quality of life.

Certification Testing Approach for Propulsion System Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, Henry; Popp, Chris

2005-01-01

The Certification of Propulsion Systems is costly and complex which involves development and qualification testing. The desire of the certification process is to assure all requirements can be demonstrated to be compliant. The purpose of this paper is to address the technical design concerns of certifying a system for flight. The authors of this paper have experience the lessons learned from supporting the Shuttle Program for Main Propulsion and On Orbit Propulsions Systems. They have collaborated design concerns for certifying propulsion systems. Presented are Pressurization, Tankage, Feed System and Combustion Instability concerns. Propulsion System Engineers are challenged with the dilemma for testing new systems to specific levels to reduce risk yet maintain budgetary targets. A methodical approach is presented to define the types of test suitable to address the technical issues for qualifying systems for retiring the risk levels.

Automated detection of retinal disease.

PubMed

Helmchen, Lorens A; Lehmann, Harold P; Abràmoff, Michael D

2014-11-01

Nearly 4 in 10 Americans with diabetes currently fail to undergo recommended annual retinal exams, resulting in tens of thousands of cases of blindness that could have been prevented. Advances in automated retinal disease detection could greatly reduce the burden of labor-intensive dilated retinal examinations by ophthalmologists and optometrists and deliver diagnostic services at lower cost. As the current availability of ophthalmologists and optometrists is inadequate to screen all patients at risk every year, automated screening systems deployed in primary care settings and even in patients' homes could fill the current gap in supply. Expanding screens to all patients at risk by switching to automated detection systems would in turn yield significantly higher rates of detecting and treating diabetic retinopathy per dilated retinal examination. Fewer diabetic patients would develop complications such as blindness, while ophthalmologists could focus on more complex cases.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the use of high-flow oxygen through nasal cannula in intensive care units in NHS England.

PubMed

Eaton Turner, Emily; Jenks, Michelle

2018-06-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of Nasal High Flow (NHF) in the intensive care unit (ICU) compared with standard oxygen or non-invasive ventilation (NIV) from a UK NHS perspective. Three cost-effectiveness models were developed to reflect scenarios of NHF use: first-line therapy (pre-intubation model); post-extubation in low-risk, and high-risk patients. All models used randomized control trial data on the incidence of intubation/re-intubation, events leading to intubation/re-intubation, mortality and complications. NHS reference costs were primarily used. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. When used as first-line therapy, Optiflow™ NHF gives an estimated cost-saving of £469 per patient compared with standard oxygen and £611 versus NIV. NHF cost-savings for high severity sub-group were £727 versus standard oxygen, and £1,011 versus NIV. For low-risk post-intubation patients, NHF generates estimated cost-saving of £156 versus standard oxygen. NHF decreases the number of re-intubations required in these scenarios. Results were robust in most sensitivity analyses. For high-risk post-intubation patients, NHF cost-savings were £104 versus NIV. NHF results in a non-significant increase in re-intubations required. However, reduction in respiratory failure offsets this. For patients in ICU who are at risk of intubation or re-intubation, NHF cannula is likely to be cost-saving.

Risk Factors Associated with Mortality and Increased Drug Costs in Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Lu, Mingliang; Sun, Gang; Zhang, Xiu-li; Zhang, Xiao-mei; Liu, Qing-sen; Huang, Qi-yang; Lau, James W Y; Yang, Yun-sheng

2015-06-01

To determine risk factors associated with mortality and increased drug costs in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients hospitalized with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding between January 2001-December 2011. Demographic and clinical characteristics and drug costs were documented. Univariate analysis determined possible risk factors for mortality. Statistically significant variables were analyzed using a logistic regression model. Multiple linear regression analyzed factors influencing drug costs. p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The study included data from 627 patients. Risk factors associated with increased mortality were age > 60, systolic blood pressure<100 mmHg, lack of endoscopic examination, comorbidities, blood transfusion, and rebleeding. Drug costs were higher in patients with rebleeding, blood transfusion, and prolonged hospital stay. In this patient cohort, re-bleeding rate is 11.20% and mortality is 5.74%. The mortality risk in patients with comorbidities was higher than in patients without comorbidities, and was higher in patients requiring blood transfusion than in patients not requiring transfusion. Rebleeding was associ-ated with mortality. Rebleeding, blood transfusion, and prolonged hospital stay were associated with increased drug costs, whereas bleeding from lesions in the esophagus and duodenum was associated with lower drug costs.

Sedation for routine gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures: a review on efficacy, safety, efficiency, cost and satisfaction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Most gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures are now performed with sedation. Moderate sedation using benzodiazepines and opioids continue to be widely used, but propofol sedation is becoming more popular because its unique pharmacokinetic properties make endoscopy almost painless, with a very predictable and rapid recovery process. There is controversy as to whether propofol should be administered only by anesthesia professionals (monitored anesthesia care) or whether properly trained non-anesthesia personnel can use propofol safely via the modalities of nurse-administered propofol sedation, computer-assisted propofol sedation or nurse-administered continuous propofol sedation. The deployment of non-anesthesia administered propofol sedation for low-risk procedures allows for optimal allocation of scarce anesthesia resources, which can be more appropriately used for more complex cases. This can address some of the current shortages in anesthesia provider supply, and can potentially reduce overall health care costs without sacrificing sedation quality. This review will discuss efficacy, safety, efficiency, cost and satisfaction issues with various modes of sedation for non-advanced, non-emergent endoscopic procedures, mainly esophagogastroduodenoscopy and colonoscopy. PMID:29142513

The high cost of the international aging prisoner crisis: well-being as the common denominator for action.

PubMed

Maschi, Tina; Viola, Deborah; Sun, Fei

2013-08-01

The aging prisoner crisis continues to gain international attention as the high human, social, and economic costs of warehousing older adults with complex physical, mental health, and social care needs in prison continues to rise. According to the United Nations, older adults and the serious and terminally ill are considered special needs populations subject to special international health and social practice and policy considerations. We argue that older adults in prison have unique individual and social developmental needs that result from life course exposure to cumulative risk factors compounded by prison conditions that accelerate their aging. We position these factors in a social context model of human development and well-being and present a review of international human rights guidelines that pertain to promoting health and well-being to those aging in custody. The study concludes with promising practices and recommendations of their potential to reduce the high direct and indirect economic costs associated with mass confinement of older adults, many of whom need specialized long-term care that global correctional systems are inadequately equipped to provide.

Advances in Household Appliances- A Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bansal, Pradeep; Vineyard, Edward Allan; Abdelaziz, Omar

2011-01-01

An overview of options and potential barriers and risks for reducing the energy consumption, peak demand, and emissions for seven key energy consuming residential products (refrigerator-freezers, dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, electric ovens, gas ovens and microwave ovens) is presented. The paper primarily concentrates on the potential energy savings from the use of advanced technologies in appliances for the U.S. market. The significance and usefulness of each technology was evaluated in order to prioritize the R&D needs to improve energy efficiency of appliances in view of energy savings, cost, and complexity. The paper provides a snapshot of the future R&Dmore » needs for each of the technologies along with the associated barriers. Although significant energy savings may be achieved, one of the major barriers in most cases is high first cost. One way of addressing this issue and promoting the introduction of new technologies is to level the playing field for all manufacturers by establishing Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) which are not cost prohibitive and promoting energy efficient products through incentives to both manufacturers and consumers.« less

Health-based risk adjustment: improving the pharmacy-based cost group model by adding diagnostic cost groups.

PubMed

Prinsze, Femmeke J; van Vliet, René C J A

Since 1991, risk-adjusted premium subsidies have existed in the Dutch social health insurance sector, which covered about two-thirds of the population until 2006. In 2002, pharmacy-based cost groups (PCGs) were included in the demographic risk adjustment model, which improved the goodness-of-fit, as measured by the R2, to 11.5%. The model's R2 reached 22.8% in 2004, when inpatient diagnostic information was added in the form of diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). PCGs and DCGs appear to be complementary in their ability to predict future costs. PCGs particularly improve the R2 for outpatient expenses, whereas DCGs improve the R2 for inpatient expenses. In 2006, this system of risk-adjusted premium subsidies was extended to cover the entire population.

Cost-effectiveness of iso- versus low-osmolality contrast media in outpatients with high risk of contrast medium-induced nephropathy.

PubMed

Chicaíza-Becerra, Liliana Alejandra; García-Molina, Mario; Gamboa, Óscar

2012-06-01

Contrast media can cause acute renal failure by direct toxic effects on the tubular cells and kidney ischemia. Diabetics and hospitalized patients have a greater risk of developing contrast-induced nephropathy than the general population. The cost effectiveness of iso and low-osmolality contrast media was assessed in high risk outpatients. The analysis was based on a systematic literature review comparing the nephrotoxic effects of iso- to low-osmolality contrast media. Only direct costs were considered; these were obtained from the official tariff manual. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, efficiency curves and acceptability curves were calculated. Univariate sensitivity analyses were performed for costs and effects, as well as probabilistic analyses. Zero and 3% discounts were applied to results. The cost-effectiveness threshold was equal to the per capita GDP per life-year gained. Alternatives with Iopamidol and Iodixanol are preferable to the others, because both reduce risk of contrast-induced nephropathy and are less costly. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the Iodixanol alternative compared to the Iopamidol alternative is US$ 14,660 per additional life year gained; this is more than twice the threshold. The low-osmolality contrast medium, Iopamidol, appears to be cost-effective when compared with Iohexol or other low-osmolality contrast media (Iopromide, Iobitridol, Iomeprol, Iopentol and Ioxilan) in contrast-induced nephropathy, high-risk outpatients. The choice of the iso-osmolality contrast medium, Iodixanol, depends on its cost per vial and on the willingness to pay.

The economic case for digital interventions for eating disorders among United States college students.

PubMed

Kass, Andrea E; Balantekin, Katherine N; Fitzsimmons-Craft, Ellen E; Jacobi, Corinna; Wilfley, Denise E; Taylor, C Barr

2017-03-01

Eating disorders (EDs) are serious health problems affecting college students. This article aimed to estimate the costs, in United States (US) dollars, of a stepped care model for online prevention and treatment among US college students to inform meaningful decisions regarding resource allocation and adoption of efficient care delivery models for EDs on college campuses. Using a payer perspective, we estimated the costs of (1) delivering an online guided self-help (GSH) intervention to individuals with EDs, including the costs of "stepping up" the proportion expected to "fail"; (2) delivering an online preventive intervention compared to a "wait and treat" approach to individuals at ED risk; and (3) applying the stepped care model across a population of 1,000 students, compared to standard care. Combining results for online GSH and preventive interventions, we estimated a stepped care model would cost less and result in fewer individuals needing in-person psychotherapy (after receiving less-intensive intervention) compared to standard care, assuming everyone in need received intervention. A stepped care model was estimated to achieve modest cost savings compared to standard care, but these estimates need to be tested with sensitivity analyses. Model assumptions highlight the complexities of cost calculations to inform resource allocation, and considerations for a disseminable delivery model are presented. Efforts are needed to systematically measure the costs and benefits of a stepped care model for EDs on college campuses, improve the precision and efficacy of ED interventions, and apply these calculations to non-US care systems with different cost structures. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A risk/cost analysis of alternative screening intervals for occupational tuberculosis infection.

PubMed

Nicas, M

1998-02-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that new health care employees receive a baseline skin test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) infection and that testing be repeated periodically. However, CDC does not explain the quantitative basis for its suggested screening intervals. This article examines the efficacy of alternative screening intervals for workers subject to different annual rates of M. tb infection and estimates the costs. An equation is developed for the cumulative risk of tuberculosis (TB) at 12 years given a specified annual rate of infection (ARI), screening interval, and a combined proportion (p) of successful skin testing and antibiotic prophylaxis. Equations for total cost of screening and cost per disease case prevented are provided. Results assume: (a) costs of $10 per skin test and $10,000 per TB disease case; (b) p = 0.88; and (c) and acceptable cumulative TB risk of 1 per 1000. For ARIs that might be deemed low (0.2% to 0.5%) and medium (1%), CDC screening intervals of 12 months and 6-12 months, respectively, minimize the cost per disease case prevented but permit residual disease risks greater than 1 per 1000. Recommended screening intervals are (i) 6 months for low-risk employee groups and (ii) 3 months for medium- and high-risk (e.g., ARIs of > or = 5%) groups. Interval (i) limits risk to 1 per 1000 and is approximately 50% shorter than the CDC interval for a low-risk group. Interval (ii), which is 67% shorter than the CDC interval for medium-risk groups but equal to that recommended for high-risk groups, permits a risk above 1 per 1000, but is likely the shortest feasible interval.

Cost-effective treatment of low-risk carcinoma not invading bladder muscle.

PubMed

Green, David A; Rink, Michael; Cha, Eugene K; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Chughtai, Bilal; Scherr, Douglas S; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Lee, Richard K

2013-03-01

Study Type - Therapy (cost effectiveness analysis) Level of Evidence 2a What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Bladder cancer is one of the costliest malignancies to treat throughout the life of a patient. The most cost-effective management for low-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer is not known. The current study shows that employing cystoscopic office fulguration for low-risk appearing bladder cancer recurrences can materially impact the cost-effectiveness of therapy. In a follow-up protocol where office fulguration is routinely employed for low-risk bladder cancers, peri-operative intravesical chemotherapy may not provide any additional cost-effectiveness benefit. To examine the cost-effectiveness of fulguration vs transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) with and without perioperative intravesical chemotherapy (PIC) for managing low-risk carcinoma not invading bladder muscle (NMIBC). Low-risk NMIBC carries a low progression rate, lending support to the use of office-based fulguration for small recurrences rather than traditional TURBT. A Markov state transition model was created to simulate treatment of NMIBC with vs without PIC, with recurrence treated by formal TURBT vs treatment with fulguration. Costing data were obtained from the Medicare Resource Based Relative Value Scale. Data regarding the success of PIC were obtained from the peer-reviewed literature, as were corresponding utilities for bladder cancer-related procedures. Sensitivity analyses were performed. At 5-year follow-up, a strategy of fulguration without PIC was the most cost-effective (mean cost-effectiveness = US $654.8/quality-adjusted life year), despite a lower recurrence rate with PIC. Both fulguration strategies dominated each TURBT strategy. Sensitivity analysis showed that fulguration without PIC dominated all other strategies when the recurrence rate after PIC was increased to ≥14.2% per year. Similarly, the cost-effectiveness of TURBT becomes more competitive with fulguration when the total cost of TURBT declines < US $1175. The present study shows that fulguration without PIC was the most cost-effective strategy for treating low-risk NMIBC. The effectiveness of PIC and the cost of TURBT can materially impact the cost-effectiveness of the different management strategies. These results should be considered in treatment decisions in the context of preserving oncological control. © 2012 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

The limits of poverty reduction in support of climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Donald R.; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Eakin, Hallie; Lo, Yun-Jia

2016-09-01

The relationship between poverty and climate change vulnerability is complex and though not commensurate, the distinctions between the two are often blurred. There is widespread recognition of the need to better understand poverty-vulnerability dynamics in order to improve risk management and poverty reduction investments. This is challenging due to the latent nature of adaptive capacities, frequent lack of baseline data, and the need for high-resolution studies. Here we respond to these challenges by analyzing household-level data in Northeast Brazil to compare drought events 14 years apart. In the period between droughts, the government implemented an aggressive anti-poverty program that includes financial and human capital investments. Poverty declined significantly, but the expected reduction in vulnerability did not occur, in part because the households were not investing in risk management strategies. Our findings complement other research that shows that households make rational decisions that may not correspond with policymaker expectations. We emphasize the need for complementary investments to help channel increased household wealth into risk reduction, and to ensure that the public sector itself continues to prioritize the public functions of risk management, especially in areas where the social cost of climatic risk is high.

Refining and validating a two-stage and web-based cancer risk assessment tool for village doctors in China.

PubMed

Shen, Xing-Rong; Chai, Jing; Feng, Rui; Liu, Tong-Zhu; Tong, Gui-Xian; Cheng, Jing; Li, Kai-Chun; Xie, Shao-Yu; Shi, Yong; Wang, De-Bin

2014-01-01

The big gap between efficacy of population level prevention and expectations due to heterogeneity and complexity of cancer etiologic factors calls for selective yet personalized interventions based on effective risk assessment. This paper documents our research protocol aimed at refining and validating a two-stage and web- based cancer risk assessment tool, from a tentative one in use by an ongoing project, capable of identifying individuals at elevated risk for one or more types of the 80% leading cancers in rural China with adequate sensitivity and specificity and featuring low cost, easy application and cultural and technical sensitivity for farmers and village doctors. The protocol adopted a modified population-based case control design using 72, 000 non-patients as controls, 2, 200 cancer patients as cases, and another 600 patients as cases for external validation. Factors taken into account comprised 8 domains including diet and nutrition, risk behaviors, family history, precancerous diseases, related medical procedures, exposure to environment hazards, mood and feelings, physical activities and anthropologic and biologic factors. Modeling stresses explored various methodologies like empirical analysis, logistic regression, neuro-network analysis, decision theory and both internal and external validation using concordance statistics, predictive values, etc..

Testing Strategies and Methodologies for the Max Launch Abort System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaible, Dawn M.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was tasked to develop an alternate, tower-less launch abort system (LAS) as risk mitigation for the Orion Project. The successful pad abort flight demonstration test in July 2009 of the "Max" launch abort system (MLAS) provided data critical to the design of future LASs, while demonstrating the Agency s ability to rapidly design, build and fly full-scale hardware at minimal cost in a "virtual" work environment. Limited funding and an aggressive schedule presented a challenge for testing of the complex MLAS system. The successful pad abort flight demonstration test was attributed to the project s systems engineering and integration process, which included: a concise definition of, and an adherence to, flight test objectives; a solid operational concept; well defined performance requirements, and a test program tailored to reducing the highest flight test risks. The testing ranged from wind tunnel validation of computational fluid dynamic simulations to component ground tests of the highest risk subsystems. This paper provides an overview of the testing/risk management approach and methodologies used to understand and reduce the areas of highest risk - resulting in a successful flight demonstration test.

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) Description. The contract type risk factor focuses on the degree of cost risk accepted by the contractor under... extract from the DD 1547 is annotated to explain the process. Item Contractor risk factors Assigned value Base (item 20) Profit objective 24. CONTRACT type risk (1) (2) (3) Cost financed Length factor Interest...

The development and application of composite complexity models and a relative complexity metric in a software maintenance environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hops, J. M.; Sherif, J. S.

1994-01-01

A great deal of effort is now being devoted to the study, analysis, prediction, and minimization of software maintenance expected cost, long before software is delivered to users or customers. It has been estimated that, on the average, the effort spent on software maintenance is as costly as the effort spent on all other software costs. Software design methods should be the starting point to aid in alleviating the problems of software maintenance complexity and high costs. Two aspects of maintenance deserve attention: (1) protocols for locating and rectifying defects, and for ensuring that noe new defects are introduced in the development phase of the software process; and (2) protocols for modification, enhancement, and upgrading. This article focuses primarily on the second aspect, the development of protocols to help increase the quality and reduce the costs associated with modifications, enhancements, and upgrades of existing software. This study developed parsimonious models and a relative complexity metric for complexity measurement of software that were used to rank the modules in the system relative to one another. Some success was achieved in using the models and the relative metric to identify maintenance-prone modules.

Real-World Health Care Costs Based on Medication Adherence and Risk of Stroke and Bleeding in Patients Treated with Novel Anticoagulant Therapy.

PubMed

Deshpande, Chinmay G; Kogut, Stephen; Willey, Cynthia

2018-05-01

With the lack of real-world evidence, the challenge for drug reimbursement policy decision makers is to understand medication adherence behavior among users of novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and its effect on overall cost savings. No study has examined and quantified the burden of cost in high-risk patients taking NOAC therapy. To examine the association of cost with adherence, comorbidity, and risk of stroke and bleeding in patients taking NOACs (rivaroxaban and dabigatran). A retrospective cohort study used deidentified data from a commercial managed care database affiliated with Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (January 1, 2010-December 31, 2012). Patients aged 18 years and older with ≥ 1 diagnosis of atrial fibrillation/flutter, > 1 NOAC prescription, 6-month pre-index and 12-month post-index continuous enrollment, and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ≥ 1 were included. Adherence was calculated using proportion of days covered (PDC ≥ 80%) over an assessment period of 3, 6, and 12 months and compared based on level of comorbidity, stroke, and bleeding risk. The adjusted annual health care costs per patient (drug, medical, and total) were calculated using multivariable gamma regression controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics and compared across groups based on adherence over 12 months, baseline level of comorbidity, and risk of stroke and bleeding. Of 25,120 NOAC patients, 2,981 patients were included in the final cohort. Based on a PDC threshold of ≥ 80%, the adherence rate over 3, 6, and 12 months was 72%, 65%, and 54%, respectively. For all time periods, the level of adherence significantly increased (P < 0.001), with an increase in stroke risk (based on CHA 2 DS 2 VASc scores of 1, 2-3, and 4+); comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index scores of 0, 1-2, and 3+); and risk of bleeding (HAS-BLED scores of 0-1, 2, and 3+). Adjusted all-cause total cost calculated for a 12-month period was significantly lower ($29,742 vs. $33,609) among adherent versus nonadherent users. Drug cost was higher ($5,595 vs. $2,233) among adherent versus nonadherent patients but was offset by lower medical costs ($23,544 vs. $30,485) costs. The overall cost significantly increased for patients with a high risk of bleeding and a high level of comorbidity. Adherence to NOAC therapy led to a reduction in overall health care cost, since higher drug costs were offset by lower medical (inpatient and outpatient) costs among adherent patients. Cost information based on adherence and risk of stroke and bleeding can help formulary decision makers to assess risk-benefit and help clinicians in developing interventions to reduce patient burden. Funding to acquire the data source was provided by the University of Rhode Island College of Pharmacy, Kingston, to support PhD dissertation work. Deshpande is currently an employee of Pharmerit International.

The cost-effectiveness of using chronic kidney disease risk scores to screen for early-stage chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Yarnoff, Benjamin O; Hoerger, Thomas J; Simpson, Siobhan K; Leib, Alyssa; Burrows, Nilka R; Shrestha, Sundar S; Pavkov, Meda E

2017-03-13

Better treatment during early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may slow progression to end-stage renal disease and decrease associated complications and medical costs. Achieving early treatment of CKD is challenging, however, because a large fraction of persons with CKD are unaware of having this disease. Screening for CKD is one important method for increasing awareness. We examined the cost-effectiveness of identifying persons for early-stage CKD screening (i.e., screening for moderate albuminuria) using published CKD risk scores. We used the CKD Health Policy Model, a micro-simulation model, to simulate the cost-effectiveness of using CKD two published risk scores by Bang et al. and Kshirsagar et al. to identify persons in the US for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria. Alternative risk score thresholds were tested (0.20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.02) above which persons were assigned to receive screening at alternative intervals (1-, 2-, and 5-year) for follow-up screening if the first screening was negative. We examined incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental lifetime costs divided by incremental lifetime QALYs, relative to the next higher screening threshold to assess cost-effectiveness. Cost-effective scenarios were determined as those with ICERs less than $50,000 per QALY. Among the cost-effective scenarios, the optimal scenario was determined as the one that resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. ICERs ranged from $8,823 per QALY to $124,626 per QALY for the Bang et al. risk score and $6,342 per QALY to $405,861 per QALY for the Kshirsagar et al. risk score. The Bang et al. risk score with a threshold of 0.02 and 2-year follow-up screening was found to be optimal because it had an ICER less than $50,000 per QALY and resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. This study indicates that using these CKD risk scores may allow clinicians to cost-effectively identify a broader population for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria and potentially detect people with CKD at earlier stages of the disease than current approaches of screening only persons with diabetes or hypertension.

Targeted outreach hepatitis B vaccination program in high-risk adults: The fundamental challenge of the last mile.

PubMed

Mangen, M-J J; Stibbe, H; Urbanus, A; Siedenburg, E C; Waldhober, Q; de Wit, G A; van Steenbergen, J E

2017-05-31

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the on-going decentralised targeted hepatitis B vaccination program for behavioural high-risk groups operated by regional public health services in the Netherlands since 1-November-2002. Target groups for free vaccination are men having sex with men (MSM), commercial sex workers (CSW) and hard drug users (HDU). Heterosexuals with a high partner change rate (HRP) were included until 1-November-2007. Based on participant, vaccination and serology data collected up to 31-December-2012, the number of participants and program costs were estimated. Observed anti-HBc prevalence was used to estimate the probability of susceptible individuals per risk-group to become infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) in their remaining life. We distinguished two time-periods: 2002-2006 and 2007-2012, representing different recruitment strategies and target groups. Correcting for observed vaccination compliance, the number of future HBV-infections avoided was estimated per risk-group. By combining these numbers with estimates of life-years lost, quality-of-life losses and healthcare costs of HBV-infections - as obtained from a Markov model-, the benefit of the program was estimated for each risk-group separately. The overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the program was €30,400/QALY gained, with effects and costs discounted at 1.5% and 4%, respectively. The program was more cost-effective in the first period (€24,200/QALY) than in the second period (€42,400/QALY). In particular, the cost-effectiveness for MSM decreased from €20,700/QALY to €47,700/QALY. This decentralised targeted HBV-vaccination program is a cost-effective intervention in certain unvaccinated high-risk adults. Saturation within the risk-groups, participation of individuals with less risky behaviour, and increased recruitment investments in the second period made the program less cost-effective over time. The project should therefore discus how to reduce costs per risk-group, increase effects or when to integrate the vaccination in regular healthcare. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A demand-side view of risk adjustment.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Dowd, B E; Maciejewski, M

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes the efficient allocation of consumers to health plans. Specifically, we address the question of why employers that offer multiple health plans often make larger contributions to the premiums of the high-cost plans. Our perspective is that the subsidy for high-cost plans represents a form of demand-side risk adjustment that improves efficiency. Without such subsidies (and in the absence of formal risk adjustment), too few employees would choose the high-cost plans preferred by high-risk workers. We test the theory by estimating a model of the employer premium subsidy, using data from a survey of large public employers in 1994. Our empirical analysis shows that employers are more likely to subsidize high-cost plans when the benefits of risk adjustment are greater. The findings suggest that the premium subsidy can accomplish some of the benefits of formal risk adjustment.

When is carotid angioplasty and stenting the cost-effective alternative for revascularization of symptomatic carotid stenosis? A Canadian health system perspective.

PubMed

Almekhlafi, M A; Hill, M D; Wiebe, S; Goyal, M; Yavin, D; Wong, J H; Clement, F M

2014-02-01

Carotid revascularization procedures can be complicated by stroke. Additional disability adds to the already high costs of the procedure. To weigh the cost and benefit, we estimated the cost-utility of carotid angioplasty and stenting compared with carotid endarterectomy among patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis, with special emphasis on scenario analyses that would yield carotid angioplasty and stenting as the cost-effective alternative relative to carotid endarterectomy. A cost-utility analysis from the perspective of the health system payer was performed by using a Markov analytic model. Clinical estimates were based on a meta-analysis. The procedural costs were derived from a microcosting data base. The costs for hospitalization and rehabilitation of patients with stroke were based on a Canadian multicenter study. Utilities were based on a randomized controlled trial. In the base case analysis, carotid angioplasty and stenting were more expensive (incremental cost of $6107) and had a lower utility (-0.12 quality-adjusted life years) than carotid endarterectomy. The results are sensitive to changes in the risk of clinical events and the relative risk of death and stroke. Carotid angioplasty and stenting were more economically attractive among high-risk surgical patients. For carotid angioplasty and stenting to become the preferred option, their costs would need to fall from more than $7300 to $4350 or less and the risks of the periprocedural and annual minor strokes would have to be equivalent to that of carotid endarterectomy. In the base case analysis, carotid angioplasty and stenting were associated with higher costs and lower utility compared with carotid endarterectomy for patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. Carotid angioplasty and stenting were cost-effective for patients with high surgical risk.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Ambulatory Cardiac Rhythm Monitoring After Cryptogenic Stroke.

PubMed

Yong, Jean Hai Ein; Thavorn, Kednapa; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Mamdani, Muhammad; Thorpe, Kevin E; Dorian, Paul; Sharma, Mike; Laupacis, Andreas; Gladstone, David J

2016-09-01

Prolonged ambulatory ECG monitoring after cryptogenic stroke improves detection of covert atrial fibrillation, but its long-term cost-effectiveness is uncertain. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of noninvasive ECG monitoring in patients aged ≥55 years after a recent cryptogenic stroke and negative 24-hour ECG. A Markov model used observed rates of atrial fibrillation detection and anticoagulation from a randomized controlled trial (EMBRACE) and the published literature to predict lifetime costs and effectiveness (ischemic strokes, hemorrhages, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) for 30-day ECG (primary analysis) and 7-day or 14-day ECG (secondary analysis), when compared with a repeat 24-hour ECG. Prolonged ECG monitoring (7, 14, or 30 days) was predicted to prevent more ischemic strokes, decrease mortality, and improve QALYs. If anticoagulation reduced stroke risk by 50%, 30-day ECG (at a cost of USD $447) would be highly cost-effective ($2000 per QALY gained) for patients with a 4.5% annual ischemic stroke recurrence risk. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to stroke recurrence risk and anticoagulant effectiveness, which remain uncertain, especially at higher costs of monitoring. Shorter duration (7 or 14 days) monitoring was cost saving and more effective than an additional 24-hour ECG; its cost-effectiveness was less sensitive to changes in ischemic stroke risk and treatment effect. After a cryptogenic stroke, 30-day ECG monitoring is likely cost-effective for preventing recurrent strokes; 14-day monitoring is an attractive value alternative, especially for lower risk patients. These results strengthen emerging recommendations for prolonged ECG monitoring in secondary stroke prevention. Cost-effectiveness in practice will depend on careful patient selection. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.