The consequences of land-cover changes on soil erosion distribution in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cebecauer, Tomáš; Hofierka, Jaroslav

2008-06-01

Soil erosion is a complex process determined by mutual interaction of numerous factors. The aim of erosion research at regional scales is a general evaluation of the landscape susceptibility to soil erosion by water, taking into account the main factors influencing this process. One of the key factors influencing the susceptibility of a region to soil erosion is land cover. Natural as well as human-induced changes of landscape may result in both the diminishment and acceleration of soil erosion. Recent studies of land-cover changes indicate that during the last decade more than 4.11% of Slovak territory has changed. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of land-cover and crop rotation changes over the 1990-2000 period on the intensity and spatial pattern of soil erosion in Slovakia. The assessment is based on principles defined in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) modified for application at regional scale and the use of the CORINE land cover (CLC) databases for 1990 and 2000. The C factor for arable land has been refined using statistical data on the mean crop rotation and the acreage of particular agricultural crops in the districts of Slovakia. The L factor has been calculated using sample areas with parcels identified by LANDSAT TM data. The results indicate that the land-cover and crop rotation changes had a significant influence on soil erosion pattern predominately in the hilly and mountainous parts of Slovakia. The pattern of soil erosion changes exhibits high spatial variation with overall slightly decreased soil erosion risks. These changes are associated with ongoing land ownership changes, changing structure of crops, deforestation and afforestation.

Spatial, spectral and temporal patterns of tropical forest cover change as observed with multiple scales of optical satellite data.

Treesearch

D.J. Hayes; W.B. Cohen

2006-01-01

This article describes the development of a methodology for scaling observations of changes in tropical forest cover to large areas at high temporal frequency from coarse-resolution satellite imagery. The approach for estimating proportional forest cover change as a continuous variable is based on a regression model that relates multispectral, multitemporal Moderate...

 A global evaluation of forest interior area dynamics using tree cover data from 2000 to 2012

Treesearch

Kurt Riitters; James Wickham; Jennifer K. Costanza; Peter Vogt

2016-01-01

Context Published maps of global tree cover derived from Landsat data have indicated substantial changes in forest area from 2000 to 2012. The changes can be arranged in different patterns, with different consequences for forest fragmentation. Thus, the changes in forest area do not necessarily equate to changes in...

Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C. C.

2014-02-01

Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred.

Land cover characterization and mapping of continental southeast Asia using multi-resolution satellite sensor data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giri, Chandra; Defourny, Pierre; Shrestha, Surendra

2003-01-01

Land use/land cover change, particularly that of tropical deforestation and forest degradation, has been occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale in Southeast Asia. The rapid rate of economic development, demographics and poverty are believed to be the underlying forces responsible for the change. Accurate and up-to-date information to support the above statement is, however, not available. The available data, if any, are outdated and are not comparable for various technical reasons. Time series analysis of land cover change and the identification of the driving forces responsible for these changes are needed for the sustainable management of natural resources and also for projecting future land cover trajectories. We analysed the multi-temporal and multi-seasonal NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data of 1985/86 and 1992 to (1) prepare historical land cover maps and (2) to identify areas undergoing major land cover transformations (called ‘hot spots’). The identified ‘hot spot’ areas were investigated in detail using high-resolution satellite sensor data such as Landsat and SPOT supplemented by intensive field surveys. Shifting cultivation, intensification of agricultural activities and change of cropping patterns, and conversion of forest to agricultural land were found to be the principal reasons for land use/land cover change in the Oudomxay province of Lao PDR, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and the Loei province of Thailand, respectively. Moreover, typical land use/land cover change patterns of the ‘hot spot’ areas were also examined. In addition, we developed an operational methodology for land use/land cover change analysis at the national level with the help of national remote sensing institutions.

Quantifying landscape pattern and assessing the land cover changes in Piatra Craiului National Park and Bucegi Natural Park, Romania, using satellite imagery and landscape metrics.

PubMed

Vorovencii, Iosif

2015-11-01

Protected areas of Romania have enjoyed particular importance after 1989, but, at the same time, they were subject to different anthropogenic and natural pressures which resulted in the occurrence of land cover changes. These changes have generally led to landscape degradation inside and at the borders of the protected areas. In this article, 12 landscape metrics were used in order to quantify landscape pattern and assess land cover changes in two protected areas, Piatra Craiului National Park (PCNP) and Bucegi Natural Park (BNP). The landscape metrics were obtained from land cover maps derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images from 1987, 1993, 2000, 2009 and 2010. Three land cover classes were analysed in PCNP and five land cover map classes in BNP. The results show a landscape fragmentation trend for both parks, affecting different types of land covers. Between 1987 and 2010, in PCNP fragmentation was, in principle, the result not only of anthropogenic activities such as forest cuttings and illegal logging but also of natural causes. In BNP, between 1987 and 2009, the fragmentation affected the pasture which resulted in the occurrence of bare land and rocky areas because of the erosion on the Bucegi Plateau.

Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

Treesearch

John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu

2018-01-01

Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...

Multitemporal spatial pattern analysis of Tulum's tropical coastal landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez-Forero, Sandra Carolina; López-Caloca, Alejandra; Silván-Cárdenas, José Luis

2011-11-01

The tropical coastal landscape of Tulum in Quintana Roo, Mexico has a high ecological, economical, social and cultural value, it provides environmental and tourism services at global, national, regional and local levels. The landscape of the area is heterogeneous and presents random fragmentation patterns. In recent years, tourist services of the region has been increased promoting an accelerate expansion of hotels, transportation and recreation infrastructure altering the complex landscape. It is important to understand the environmental dynamics through temporal changes on the spatial patterns and to propose a better management of this ecological area to the authorities. This paper addresses a multi-temporal analysis of land cover changes from 1993 to 2000 in Tulum using Thematic Mapper data acquired by Landsat-5. Two independent methodologies were applied for the analysis of changes in the landscape and for the definition of fragmentation patterns. First, an Iteratively Multivariate Alteration Detection (IR-MAD) algorithm was used to detect and localize land cover change/no-change areas. Second, the post-classification change detection evaluated using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm. Landscape metrics were calculated from the results of IR-MAD and SVM. The analysis of the metrics indicated, among other things, a higher fragmentation pattern along roadways.

Numerical investigation of aggregated fuel spatial pattern impacts on fire behavior

DOE PAGES

Parsons, Russell A.; Linn, Rodman Ray; Pimont, Francois; ...

2017-06-18

Here, landscape heterogeneity shapes species distributions, interactions, and fluctuations. Historically, in dry forest ecosystems, low canopy cover and heterogeneous fuel patterns often moderated disturbances like fire. Over the last century, however, increases in canopy cover and more homogeneous patterns have contributed to altered fire regimes with higher fire severity. Fire management strategies emphasize increasing within-stand heterogeneity with aggregated fuel patterns to alter potential fire behavior. Yet, little is known about how such patterns may affect fire behavior, or how sensitive fire behavior changes from fuel patterns are to winds and canopy cover. Here, we used a physics-based fire behavior model,more » FIRETEC, to explore the impacts of spatially aggregated fuel patterns on the mean and variability of stand-level fire behavior, and to test sensitivity of these effects to wind and canopy cover. Qualitative and quantitative approaches suggest that spatial fuel patterns can significantly affect fire behavior. Based on our results we propose three hypotheses: (1) aggregated spatial fuel patterns primarily affect fire behavior by increasing variability; (2) this variability should increase with spatial scale of aggregation; and (3) fire behavior sensitivity to spatial pattern effects should be more pronounced under moderate wind and fuel conditions.« less

Numerical investigation of aggregated fuel spatial pattern impacts on fire behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parsons, Russell A.; Linn, Rodman Ray; Pimont, Francois

Here, landscape heterogeneity shapes species distributions, interactions, and fluctuations. Historically, in dry forest ecosystems, low canopy cover and heterogeneous fuel patterns often moderated disturbances like fire. Over the last century, however, increases in canopy cover and more homogeneous patterns have contributed to altered fire regimes with higher fire severity. Fire management strategies emphasize increasing within-stand heterogeneity with aggregated fuel patterns to alter potential fire behavior. Yet, little is known about how such patterns may affect fire behavior, or how sensitive fire behavior changes from fuel patterns are to winds and canopy cover. Here, we used a physics-based fire behavior model,more » FIRETEC, to explore the impacts of spatially aggregated fuel patterns on the mean and variability of stand-level fire behavior, and to test sensitivity of these effects to wind and canopy cover. Qualitative and quantitative approaches suggest that spatial fuel patterns can significantly affect fire behavior. Based on our results we propose three hypotheses: (1) aggregated spatial fuel patterns primarily affect fire behavior by increasing variability; (2) this variability should increase with spatial scale of aggregation; and (3) fire behavior sensitivity to spatial pattern effects should be more pronounced under moderate wind and fuel conditions.« less

Review of Land Use and Land Cover Change research progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yue; Hou, Kang; Li, Xuxiang; Zhang, Yunwei; Chen, Pei

2018-02-01

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) can reflect the pattern of human land use in a region, and plays an important role in space soil and water conservation. The study on the change of land use patterns in the world is of great significance to cope with global climate change and sustainable development. This paper reviews the main research progress of LUCC at home and abroad, and suggests that land use change has been shifted from land use planning and management to land use change impact and driving factors. The development of remote sensing technology provides the basis and data for LUCC with dynamic monitoring and quantitative analysis. However, there is no uniform standard for land use classification at present, which brings a lot of inconvenience to the collection and analysis of land cover data. Globeland30 is an important milestone contribution to the study of international LUCC system. More attention should be paid to the accuracy and results contrasting test of land use classification obtained by remote sensing technology.

Chesapeake bay watershed land cover data series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irani, Frederick M.; Claggett, Peter

2010-01-01

To better understand how the land is changing and to relate those changes to water quality trends, the USGS EGSC funded the production of a Chesapeake Bay Watershed Land Cover Data Series (CBLCD) representing four dates: 1984, 1992, 2001, and 2006. EGSC will publish land change forecasts based on observed trends in the CBLCD over the coming year. They are in the process of interpreting and publishing statistics on the extent, type and patterns of land cover change for 1984-2006 in the Bay watershed, major tributaries and counties.

Changes in spatiotemporal land use patterns in selected hydrogeomorphic areas of China and the USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Differences exist in land use/cover pattern and its change between the P. R. China and the USA. In order to describe those differences, land use changes in representative regions were quantitatively analyzed and compared. Xiamen City, Changzhutan region and Liupan Mountains regions were selected to ...

Fire patterns in piñon and juniper land cover types in the Semiarid Western United States from 1984 through 2013

Treesearch

David I. Board; Jeanne C. Chambers; Richard F. Miller; Peter J. Weisberg

2018-01-01

Increases in area burned and fire size have been reported across a wide range of forest and shrubland types in the Western United States in recent decades, but little is known about potential changes in fire regimes of piñon and juniper land cover types. We evaluated spatio-temporal patterns of fire in piñon and juniper land cover types from the National Gap Analysis...

Consequences of land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E. Terrence; Barnes, Christopher; Karstensen, Krista; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area is one of seven USGS mission areas that focuses on making substantial scientific "...contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change". Using satellite and other remotely sensed data, USGS scientists monitor patterns of land cover change over space and time at regional, national, and global scales. These data are analyzed to understand the causes and consequences of changing land cover, such as economic impacts, effects on water quality and availability, the spread of invasive species, habitats and biodiversity, carbon fluctuations, and climate variability. USGS scientists are among the leaders in the study of land cover, which is a term that generally refers to the vegetation and artificial structures that cover the land surface. Examples of land cover include forests, grasslands, wetlands, water, crops, and buildings. Land use involves human activities that take place on the land. For example, "grass" is a land cover, whereas pasture and recreational parks are land uses that produce a cover of grass.

A multi-scale assessment of human and environmental constraints on forest land cover change on the Oregon (USA) coast range.

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Janet L. Ohmann

2004-01-01

Human modification of forest habitats is a major component of global environmental change. Even areas that remain predominantly forested may be changed considerably by human alteration of historical disturbance regimes. To better understand human influences on the abundance and pattern of forest habitats, we studied forest land cover change from 1936 to 1996 in a 25...

Design and analysis for thematic map accuracy assessment: Fundamental principles

Treesearch

Stephen V. Stehman; Raymond L. Czaplewski

1998-01-01

Land-cover maps are used in numerous natural resource applications to describe the spatial distribution and pattern of land-cover, to estimate areal extent of various cover classes, or as input into habitat suitability models, land-cover change analyses, hydrological models, and risk analyses. Accuracy assessment quantifies data quality so that map users may evaluate...

Effects of Landscape Conditions and Management Practices ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Lakes continue to face escalating pressures associated with land cover change and growing human populations. The U.S. EPA National Lakes Assessment, which sampled 1,028 lakes during the summer of 2007 using a probabilistic survey, was the first large scale effort to determine the condition of lakes across the country. In addition to broad trends, these data offer an abundance of new opportunities to examine biodiversity patterns, drivers of ecosystem change, and effectiveness of management practices that aim to reduce adverse effects of land cover change. Here, we use 2006 National Land Cover Data and sediment diatom samples collected from the tops of cores to examine how land cover at different spatial extents affects the habitat and diatom communities of lakes. We are examining the effects of land cover in basins, buffers in upstream networks, and buffers adjacent to 188 lakes in regions extending from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Identifying relationships of diatom communities with land cover and physico-chemical parameters, along with generating stressor-response curves, will help with (1) developing diatom indicators responsive to anthropogenic impacts, (2) identifying how spatial locations of land cover affect lake conditions and diatoms, (3) informing future assessments and management efforts, and (4) characterizing potentially different patterns across regions and the effects of natural variation. Comparisons of study lakes to reference lake conditio

Quantifying Structural and Compositional Changes in Forest Cover in NW Yunnan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkenberg, C.

2012-12-01

NW Yunnan, China is a region renowned for high levels of biodiversity, endemism and genetically distinct refugial plant populations. It is also a focal area for China's national reforestation efforts like the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), intended to control erosion in the Upper Yangtze watershed. As part of a larger project to investigate the role of reforestation programs in facilitating the emergence of increasingly species-rich forest communities on a previously degraded and depauperate land mosaic in montane SW China, this study uses a series of Landsat TM images to quantify the spatial pattern and rate of structural and compositional change in forests recovering from medium to large-scale disturbances in the area over the past 25 years. Beyond the fundamental need to assess the outcomes of one of the world's largest reforestation programs, this research offers approaches to confronting two critical methodological issues: (1) techniques for characterizing subtle changes in the nature of vegetation cover, and (2) reducing change detection uncertainty due to persistent cloud cover and shadow. To address difficulties in accurately assessing the structure and composition of vegetative regrowth, a biophysical model was parameterized with over 300 ground-truthed canopy cover assessment points to determine pattern and rate of long-term vegetation changes. To combat pervasive shadow and cloud cover, an interactive generalized additive model (GAM) model based on topographic and spatial predictors was used to overcome some of the constraints of satellite image analysis in Himalayan regions characterized by extreme topography and extensive cloud cover during the summer monsoon. The change detection is assessed for accuracy using ground-truthed observations in a variety of forest cover types and topographic positions. Results indicate effectiveness in reducing the areal extent of unclassified regions and increasing total change detection accuracy. In addition to quantifying forest cover change in this section of NW Yunnan, the analysis attempts to qualify that change - distinguishing among distinct disturbance histories and post-recovery successional pathways.

Object-based land cover classification and change analysis in the Baltimore metropolitan area using multitemporal high resolution remote sensing data

Treesearch

Weiqi Zhou; Austin Troy; Morgan Grove

2008-01-01

Accurate and timely information about land cover pattern and change in urban areas is crucial for urban land management decision-making, ecosystem monitoring and urban planning. This paper presents the methods and results of an object-based classification and post-classification change detection of multitemporal high-spatial resolution Emerge aerial imagery in the...

Spatiotemporal dynamics of LUCC from 2001 to 2010 in Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z. J.; Yu, J. S.; Yao, X. L.; Chen, X.; Li, Z. L.

2016-08-01

LUCC (Land use and land cover change) is increasingly regarded as an important component of global environmental change and sustainable development. In this study, regional land cover type maps were drawn using the MODIS products from 2001 and 2010 based on the modified classification scheme embodied by the characteristics of land cover in Yunnan. Dynamic change in each type of land cover was investigated by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrices, and landscape pattern metrics. In addition, the driving factors of LUCC were discussed. The results showed that the land cover types of the Yunnan province, especially woodland (WL), cropland (CL) and grassland (GL), had experienced noticeable changes with an area of about 30% of land during the study period. And there was an obvious vertical distribution pattern for land cover types. The average altitude of different land cover types from the highest to the lowest were unused land (UUT), WL, GL, water (WT), urban and built-up areas (UB) and CL. The average slope for most of the land-cover types did not vary over the past 10 years. Stabilization and homogenization will be the direction of land cover in the future according to landscape metrics analysis. The regional differences of land use structure in the area are strongly influenced by such factors as the geographical position, level of economic development and land use policy. The new policy of land use, Construction of Mountainous Town, would be provided to achieve the economical and intensive utilization of land resources during the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in Yunnan.

Land Use and Land Cover Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.

2014-05-01

A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

Land use patterns and urbanization in the holy city of Varanasi, India: a scenario.

PubMed

Kumar, Manoj; Mukherjee, Nivedita; Sharma, Gyan Prakash; Raghubanshi, A S

2010-08-01

Rapid urbanization and increasing land use changes due to population and economic growth in selected landscapes is being witnessed of late in India and other developing countries. The cities are expanding in all directions resulting in large-scale urban sprawl and changes in urban land use. The spatial pattern of such changes is clearly noticed on the urban fringes or city peripheral rural areas than in the city center. In fact, this is reflected in changing urban land use patterns. There is an urgent need to accurately describe land use changes for planning and sustainable management. In the recent times, remote sensing is gaining importance as vital tool in the analysis and integration of spatial data. This study intends to estimate land use pattern in a planned and unplanned urban setup and also to analyze the impact of change in land use pattern in the Varanasi urban environment. The results indicate that the planned urban setup had a higher tree cover to that of unplanned area in the Varanasi City, although a considerable disparity existed within the planned urban setups. The results emphasize the need to critically review concepts of urban planning and give more consideration to the preservation and management of urban tree cover/greenspace.

The dynamics of human-induced land cover change in miombo ecosystems of southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiteh, Malanding Sambou

Understanding human-induced land cover change in the miombo require the consistent, geographically-referenced, data on temporal land cover characteristics as well as biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of land use, the major cause of land cover change. The overall goal of this research to examine the applications of high-resolution satellite remote sensing data in studying the dynamics of human-induced land cover change in the miombo. Specific objectives are to: (1) evaluate the applications of computer-assisted classification of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data for land cover mapping in the miombo and (2) analyze spatial and temporal patterns of landscape change locations in the miombo. Stepwise Thematic Classification, STC (a hybrid supervised-unsupervised classification) procedure for classifying Landsat TM data was developed and tested using Landsat TM data. Classification accuracy results were compared to those from supervised and unsupervised classification. The STC provided the highest classification accuracy i.e., 83.9% correspondence between classified and referenced data compared to 44.2% and 34.5% for unsupervised and supervised classification respectively. Improvements in the classification process can be attributed to thematic stratification of the image data into spectrally homogenous (thematic) groups and step-by-step classification of the groups using supervised or unsupervised classification techniques. Supervised classification failed to classify 18% of the scene evidence that training data used did not adequately represent all of the variability in the data. Application of the procedure in drier miombo produced overall classification accuracy of 63%. This is much lower than that of wetter miombo. The results clearly demonstrate that digital classification of Landsat TM can be successfully implemented in the miombo without intensive fieldwork. Spatial characteristics of land cover change in agricultural and forested landscapes in central Malawi were analyzed for the period 1984 to 1995 spatial pattern analysis methods. Shifting cultivation areas, Agriculture in forested landscape, experienced highest rate of woodland cover fragmentation with mean patch size of closed woodland cover decreasing from 20ha to 7.5ha. Permanent bare (cropland and settlement) in intensive agricultural matrix landscapes increased 52% largely through the conversion of fallow areas. Protected National Park area remained fairly unchanged although closed woodland area increased by 4%, mainly from regeneration of open woodland. This study provided evidence that changes in spatial characteristics in the miombo differ with landscape. Land use change (i.e. conversion to cropland) is the primary driving force behind changes in landscape spatial patterns. Also, results revealed that exclusion of intense human use (i.e. cultivation and woodcutting) through regulations and/or fencing increased both closed woodland area (through regeneration of open woodland) and overall connectivity in the landscape. Spatial characteristics of land cover change were analyzed at locations in Malawi (wetter miombo) and Zimbabwe (drier miombo). Results indicate land cover dynamics differ both between and within case study sites. In communal areas in the Kasungu scene, land cover change is dominated by woodland fragmentation to open vegetation. Change in private commercial lands was dominantly expansion of bare (settlement and cropland) areas primarily at the expense of open vegetation (fallow land).

Effects of land use/cover change and harvests on forest carbon dynamics in northern states of the United States from remote sensing and inventory data: 1992-2001

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey; James E. Smith

2011-01-01

We examined spatial patterns of changes in forest area and nonsoil carbon (C) dynamics affected by land use/cover change (LUC) and harvests in 24 northern states of the United States using an integrated methodology combining remote sensing and ground inventory data between 1992 and 2001. We used the Retrofit Change Product from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics...

Determinants of postfire recovery and succession in mediterranean-climate shrublands of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, J.E.; Fotheringham, C.J.; Baer-Keeley, M.

2005-01-01

Evergreen chaparral and semideciduous sage scrub shrublands were studied for five years after fires in order to evaluate hypothesized determinants of postfire recovery and succession. Residual species present in the immediate postfire environment dominated early succession. By the fifth year postfire, roughly half of the species were colonizers not present in the first year, but they comprised only 7-14% cover. Successional changes were evaluated in the context of four hypotheses: (1) event-dependent, (2) fire interval, (3) self-regulatory, and (4) environmental filter hypotheses. Characteristics specific to the fire event, for example, fire severity and annual fluctuations in precipitation, were important determinants of patterns of change in cover and density, supporting the "event-dependent" hypothesis. The "fire interval" hypothesis is also supported, primarily through the impact of short intervals on reproductive failure in obligate seeding shrubs and the impact of long intervals on fuel accumulation and resultant fire severity. Successional changes in woody cover were correlated with decreases in herb cover, indicating support for "self-regulatory" effects. Across this landscape there were strong "environmental filter" effects that resulted in complex patterns of postfire recovery and succession between coastal and interior associations of both vegetation types. Of relevance to fire managers is the finding that postfire recovery patterns are substantially slower in the interior sage scrub formations, and thus require different management strategies than coastal formations. Also, in sage scrub (but not chaparral), prefire stand age is positively correlated with fire severity, and negatively correlated with postfire cover. Differential responses to fire severity suggest that landscapes with combinations of high and low severity may lead to enhanced biodiversity. Predicting postfire management needs is complicated by the fact that vegetation recovery is significantly controlled by patterns of precipitation. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Coupling of Markov chains and cellular automata spatial models to predict land cover changes (case study: upper Ci Leungsi catchment area)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marko, K.; Zulkarnain, F.; Kusratmoko, E.

2016-11-01

Land cover changes particular in urban catchment area has been rapidly occur. Land cover changes occur as a result of increasing demand for built-up area. Various kinds of environmental and hydrological problems e.g. floods and urban heat island can happen if the changes are uncontrolled. This study aims to predict land cover changes using coupling of Markov chains and cellular automata. One of the most rapid land cover changes is occurs at upper Ci Leungsi catchment area that located near Bekasi City and Jakarta Metropolitan Area. Markov chains has a good ability to predict the probability of change statistically while cellular automata believed as a powerful method in reading the spatial patterns of change. Temporal land cover data was obtained by remote sensing satellite imageries. In addition, this study also used multi-criteria analysis to determine which driving factor that could stimulate the changes such as proximity, elevation, and slope. Coupling of these two methods could give better prediction model rather than just using it separately. The prediction model was validated using existing 2015 land cover data and shown a satisfactory kappa coefficient. The most significant increasing land cover is built-up area from 24% to 53%.

Exurban Development and its Environmental Impact on Land Use in Kurgan City, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrievskikh, Daria

Exurban communities as one of the forms of urban sprawl can cause significant changes in natural land cover. Exurban development refers to an expansion of communities located outside a city and its suburbs. One of the main reasons these settlements develop is a desire to live closer to nature with better ecological conditions. Exurbs often represent prosperous regions inhabited by people with high income. However, exurban development involves the human consumption of natural environments. Specifically, it directly affects community patterns, species patterns, and demographic patterns of surrounding ecosystems, as well as land use. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of exurban settlements on the natural environment. This study uses remote sensing imagery, Census data and primary data to analyze land cover change due to the emergence of exurban communities around Kurgan City, Russia, with an emphasis on the change of natural vegetation such as, forests in addition to human behavior.

Effect of multi-temporal forest cover change trajectories on forest plant diversity

EPA Science Inventory

One of the principal tenets of landscape ecology is that forest loss and fragmentation negatively affects biodiversity. However, historical fluctuations in forest cover resulting from repeated cycles of deforestation and reforestation are likely important in influencing patterns ...

Exploring dust emission responses to land cover change using an ecological land classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galloza, Magda S.; Webb, Nicholas P.; Bleiweiss, Max P.; Winters, Craig; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Ayers, Eldon

2018-06-01

Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models (STMs) for detecting and quantitatively describing the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion. We apply a dust emission model over a rangeland study area in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, New Mexico, USA, and evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of modelled horizontal sediment mass flux and dust emission in the context of ecological sites and their vegetation states; representing a diversity of land cover types. Our results demonstrate how the impacts of land cover change on dust emission can be quantified, compared across land cover classes, and interpreted in the context of an ecological model that encapsulates land management intensity and change. Results also reveal the importance of established weaknesses in the dust model soil characterisation and drag partition scheme, which appeared generally insensitive to the impacts of land cover change. New models that address these weaknesses, coupled with ecological site concepts and field measurements across land cover types, could significantly reduce assessment uncertainties and provide opportunities for identifying land management options.

Examples of Level Products Possible from Existing Assets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

How do patterns of human environmental and infectious diseases respond to leading environmental changes, particularly to urban growth and change and the associated impacts of urbanization? We use HyspIRI high spatial resolution, multispectral, and multitemporal TIR data to track energy balance and energy flux characteristics for changing land covers/land uses through time to provide synoptic views of impacts on surface energy fluxes, emissivity and temperature and HyspIRI data in conjunction with spatial growth models to project land cover/land use changes in the future to assess impacts on natural and human ecosystems. We use multispectral thermal IR land cover maps at a high spatial resolution (60m) on a weekly basis for long-term validation of surface energy responses and changes in emissivity and integration of HyspIRI TIR data with spatial modeling to assess changes in land cover/land use through time and subsequent changes in thermal energy responses

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

River capture controlling changes in the drainage pattern and river slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelltort, Xavier; Colombo, Ferran

2016-04-01

The crystalline block of Les Guilleries, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, is part of the Hercynian basement over which Palaeogene materials of the Ebro basinwere deposited . This massif is affected by a family of basement fractures of NW-SE direction which continue under the Paleogene cover. This is evident in the areas of contact between the two units. One of these areas affected by fractures was used by the primitive river Ter to transition, through a process of river capture, from the crystal unit Guilleries, with a rectangular drainage pattern, toward the sedimentary cover of the Ebro basin, with a meander drainage pattern. The fractured material that the river Ter used to deepen against the dip of the layers is more evident due to it being rigid and resistant to erosion, the Sandstones of Folgueroles Fm. The use of fractures resulted in a course of the river Ter that can be divided into three subparallel reaches with a shape of Z, which can be described as structural pseudomeanders. The change in the drainage pattern of the river between its passage accross the basement and the cover can never be the product of a process of antecedence or superimposition as has been proclaimed earlier. The rectangular pattern fits the structure of the crystalline massif. The meandering pattern on the cover is due to the difficulty of flowing through the Sandstones of Folgueroles Fm, and to the subsequent pressure loss affecting the current of the river that moves upstream beyond the Bellmunt Anticline. Up to the point where the pattern meander is conserved, river slope is below 1%. Upstream, the river slope increases significantly due to the adaptation of the river to a new layout.

Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tingxiang; Zhang, Shuwen; Yu, Lingxue; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping

2017-05-01

The Northeast China is one of typical regions experiencing intensive human activities within short time worldwide. Particularly, as the significant changes of agriculture land and forest, typical characteristics of pattern and process of agroforestry ecotone change formed in recent decades. The intensive land use change of agroforestry ecotone has made significant change for regional land cover, which had significant impact on the regional climate system elements and the interactions among them. This paper took agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China as study region and simulated temperature change based on land cover change from 1950s to 1978 and from 1978 to 2010. The analysis of temperature difference sensitivity to land cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that the land cover change from 1950s to 1978 induced warming effect over all the study area, including the change of grassland to agriculture land, grassland to deciduous broad-leaved forest, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to shrub land. The land cover change from 1978 to 2010 induced cooling effect over all the study area, including the change of deciduous broad-leaved forest to agriculture land, grassland to agriculture land, shrub land to agriculture land, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to grassland. In addition, the warming and cooling effect of land cover change was more significant in the region scale than specific land cover change area.

On the role of snow cover ablation variability and synoptic-scale atmospheric forcings at the sub-basin scale within the Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriano, Zachary J.

2018-02-01

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions play a critical role in determining the frequency and intensity of snow cover ablation in the mid-latitudes. Using a synoptic classification technique, distinct regional circulation patterns influencing the Great Lakes basin of North America are identified and examined in conjunction with daily snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. This approach allows for the influence of each synoptic weather type on ablation to be examined independently and for the monthly and inter-annual frequencies of the weather types to be tracked over time. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover and the relatively large geographic extent of the Great Lakes basin, snow cover ablation events and the synoptic-scale patterns that cause them are examined for each of the Great Lakes watershed's five primary sub-basins to understand the regional complexities of snow cover ablation variability. Results indicate that while many synoptic weather patterns lead to ablation across the basins, they can be generally grouped into one of only a few primary patterns: southerly flow, high-pressure overhead, and rain-on-snow patterns. As expected, the patterns leading to ablation are not necessarily consistent between the five sub-basins due to the seasonality of snow cover and the spatial variability of temperature, moisture, wind, and incoming solar radiation associated with the particular synoptic weather types. Significant trends in the inter-annual frequency of ablation-inducing synoptic types do exist for some sub-basins, indicating a potential change in the hydrologic impact of these patterns over time.

Forest harvest patterns on private lands in the Cascade Mountains, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soulard, Christopher E.; Walker, Jessica; Griffith, Glenn E.

2017-01-01

Forests in Washington State generate substantial economic revenue from commercial timber harvesting on private lands. To investigate the rates, causes, and spatial and temporal patterns of forest harvest on private tracts throughout the Cascade Mountains, we relied on a new generation of annual land-use/land-cover (LULC) products created from the application of the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm to Landsat satellite imagery collected from 1985 to 2014. We calculated metrics of landscape pattern using patches of intact and harvested forest in each annual layer to identify changes throughout the time series. Patch dynamics revealed four distinct eras of logging trends that align with prevailing regulations and economic conditions. We used multiple logistic regression to determine the biophysical and anthropogenic factors that influence fine-scale selection of harvest stands in each time period. Results show that private lands forest cover became significantly reduced and more fragmented from 1985 to 2014. Variables linked to parameters of site conditions, location, climate, and vegetation greenness consistently distinguished harvest selection for each distinct era. This study demonstrates the utility of annual LULC data for investigating the underlying factors that influence land cover change.

Satellite assessment of increasing tree cover 1982-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X. P.; Hansen, M.

2017-12-01

The Earth's vegetation has undergone dramatic changes as we enter the Anthropocene. Recent studies have quantified global forest cover dynamics and resulting biogeochemical and biophysical impacts to the climate for the post-2000 time period. However, long-term gradual changes in undisturbed forests are less well quantified. We mapped annual tree cover using satellite data and quantified tree cover change during 1982-2016. The dataset was produced by combining optical observations from multiple satellite sensors, including the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus and various very high spatial resolution sensors. Contrary to current understanding of forest area change, global tree cover increased by 7%. The overall net gain in tree cover is a result of net loss in the tropics overweighed by net gain in the subtropical, temperate and boreal zones. All mountain systems, regardless of climate domain, experienced increases in tree cover. Regional patterns of tree cover gain including eastern United States, eastern Europe and southern China, indicate profound influences of socioeconomic, political or land management changes in shaping long-term environmental change. Results provide the first comprehensive record of global tree cover dynamics over the past four decades and may be used to reduce uncertainties in the quantification of the global carbon cycle.

Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon.

PubMed

Sellers, Samuel

2017-06-01

Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting.

Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon

PubMed Central

Sellers, Samuel

2017-01-01

Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting. PMID:29056808

Monitoring coal mine changes and their impact on landscape patterns in an alpine region: a case study of the Muli coal mine in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Qian, Dawen; Yan, Changzhen; Xing, Zanpin; Xiu, Lina

2017-10-14

The Muli coal mine is the largest open-cast coal mine in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and it consists of two independent mining sites named Juhugeng and Jiangcang. It has received much attention due to the ecological problems caused by rapid expansion in recent years. The objective of this paper was to monitor the mining area and its surrounding land cover over the period 1976-2016 utilizing Landsat images, and the network structure of land cover changes was determined to visualize the relationships and pattern of the mining-induced land cover changes. In addition, the responses of the surrounding landscape pattern were analysed by constructing gradient transects. The results show that the mining area was increasing in size, especially after 2000 (increased by 71.68 km 2 ), and this caused shrinkage of the surrounding lands, including alpine meadow wetland (53.44 km 2 ), alpine meadow (6.28 km 2 ) and water (6.24 km 2 ). The network structure of the mining area revealed the changes in lands surrounding the mining area. The impact of mining development on landscape patterns was mainly distributed within a range of 1-6 km. Alpine meadow wetland was most affected in Juhugeng, while alpine meadow was most affected in Jiangcang. The results of this study provide a reference for the ecological assessment and restoration of the Muli coal mine land.

Simulating Changes in Land-Atmosphere Interactions From Expanding Agriculture and Irrigation in India and the Potential Impacts on the Indian Monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, E. M.; Beltran-Przekurat, A.; Niyogi, D.; Pielke, R. A.

2006-05-01

With over 57 million hectares under irrigation in 2002, India has the largest irrigated agricultural area on the planet. Between 80 and 90% of India's water use goes to support irrigated agriculture. The Indian monsoon belt is a home to a large part of the world's population and agriculture is the major land-use activity in the region. Previous results showed that annual vapor fluxes in India have increased by 17% (340 km3) over that which would be expected from a natural (non-agricultural) land cover. Two-thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigated agriculture. The largest increases in vapor and latent heat fluxes occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land cover classes (particularly northwest and north-central India). Our current study builds upon this work by evaluating possible changes in near-surface energy fluxes and regional atmospheric circulation patterns resulting from the expansion of irrigated agriculture on the Indian sub-continent using a regional atmospheric model RAMS. We investigate three separate land- use scenarios: Scenario 1, with a potential (pre-agricultural) land cover, Scenario 2: the potential land-cover overlain by cropland and Scenario 3: potential land-cover overlain by cropland and irrigated area. We will assess the impact of agricultural land-cover conversion and intensive irrigation on water and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere and how these flux changes may affect regional weather patterns. The simulation period covers July 16-20, 2002 which allow us to assess potential impacts of land-cover changes on the onset of the Indian Monsoon.

Species interactions and response time to climate change: ice-cover and terrestrial run-off shaping Arctic char and brown trout competitive asymmetries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finstad, A. G.; Palm Helland, I.; Jonsson, B.; Forseth, T.; Foldvik, A.; Hessen, D. O.; Hendrichsen, D. K.; Berg, O. K.; Ulvan, E.; Ugedal, O.

2011-12-01

There has been a growing recognition that single species responses to climate change often mainly are driven by interaction with other organisms and single species studies therefore not are sufficient to recognize and project ecological climate change impacts. Here, we study how performance, relative abundance and the distribution of two common Arctic and sub-Arctic freshwater fishes (brown trout and Arctic char) are driven by competitive interactions. The interactions are modified both by direct climatic effects on temperature and ice-cover, and indirectly through climate forcing of terrestrial vegetation pattern and associated carbon and nutrient run-off. We first use laboratory studies to show that Arctic char, which is the world's most northernmost distributed freshwater fish, outperform trout under low light levels and also have comparable higher growth efficiency. Corresponding to this, a combination of time series and time-for-space analyses show that ice-cover duration and carbon and nutrient load mediated by catchment vegetation properties strongly affected the outcome of the competition and likely drive the species distribution pattern through competitive exclusion. In brief, while shorter ice-cover period and decreased carbon load favored brown trout, increased ice-cover period and increased carbon load favored Arctic char. Length of ice-covered period and export of allochthonous material from catchments are major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of competitive interaction between these two freshwater lake top-predators. While projected climate change lead to decreased ice-cover, corresponding increase in forest and shrub cover amplify carbon and nutrient run-off. Although a likely outcome of future Arctic and sub-arctic climate scenarios are retractions of the Arctic char distribution area caused by competitive exclusion, the main drivers will act on different time scales. While ice-cover will change instantaneously with increasing temperature, changes in catchment vegetation, such as forest-line or shrub advancement affecting carbon and nutrient transport into lakes, act on considerably longer time-scales. This study therefore emphasizes the recurring challenge for ecological climate change studies related to species interactions within and across ecosystem compartments and the response time of ecosystems.

National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

PubMed Central

Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

2010-01-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

Land use/land cover change and their effects on landscape patterns in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang (China).

PubMed

Wang, Shuixian; Wang, Shengli

2013-12-01

Human modification of land use and land cover change (LUCC) drives the change of landscape patterns and limits the availability of products and services for human and livestock. LUCC can undermine environmental health. Thus, this study aimed to develop an understanding of LUCC in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China, an arid area experiencing dramatic water and land resource use. A time series of satellite images (1964, 1973, 1989, 1999, and 2009) were used to calculate the index of landscape patterns to study the processes involved in changes to land uses and landscape patterns and the influence of this changes on landscape patterns. The results show that land uses in the Yanqi Basin have changed dramatically since 1964 with grassland being mainly converted to cropland. Landscape fragmentation and diversity have decreased in the study area, although landscape fragmentation increased from 1964 to 1999 and then decreased by 2009. The index of landscape diversity decreased from 1.64 in 1964 to 0.71 in 2009. The heterogeneity and complexity of the landscape increased during this period. In contrast, the index of dominance decreased from 0.85 in 1964 to 0.83 in 2009. Land use change drives landscape patterns of the development of the watershed toward diversity and a fragmented structure. Population growth, economic development, and industrial policies were the dominant driving forces behind LUCC in the Yanqi Basin. Sustainable use of land resources is a significant factor in maintaining economic development and environmental protection in this arid inland river basin.

Pattern Water Use Efficiency perspective on degradation and recovery of shrublands across Mediterranean to Arid transition zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoshany, Maxim

2017-04-01

Shrublands cover a total of 12.7 million km2 , a considerable part of them along semi-arid to arid transition zones. Varying patterns of shrubs, grasses and barren land along such climatic gradients express the spatial dimension of climate change and human disturbance which attracted limited attention in the eco-geomorphic literature. Questions concerning relationships between rainfall, shrublands biomass and their patterns are fundamental for the understanding of these ecosystems response to the expected changes in water availability due to global warming and the increase in human disturbance to natural ecosystems following World population growth. While processes leading to the formation of patterns had attracted considerable attention, the spatial dimension of Water Use Efficiency (WUE) which is a parameter measuring ecosystems productivity in relation to water availability is severely missing. Relative shrub cover is a primary estimator of the fraction of water utilized for shrubs growth. Edge effects must be considered as well in fragmented ecosystems in general and in hot regions in particular since soil temperature in hot regions which frequently exceed 50oC during summer months decreases photosynthesis and productivity in plants bordering bare soil. This edge effect is decreasing with the increase in shrubs' height. Pattern Water Use Efficiency describes the combined effect of shrub cover, shrub height and shrub patches edge zone proportion on water use efficiency. In my presentation I will first present mapping od PWUEs across Mediterranean to arid transition zones in the Eastern Mediterranean. Then I will present several mathematical models describing PWUE for simulated patterns, searching for the spatial parameterization providing the highest sensitivity to patterns responses to changes in habitat conditions. Such simulations would allow us to discuss several PWUE strategies for shrublands recovery under the current scenarios of climate change and human driven degradation.

Effects of land-cover change on spatial pattern of forest communities in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA)

Treesearch

Monica G. Turner; Scott M. Pearson; Paul Bolstad; David N. Wear

2003-01-01

Understanding the implications of past. present and future patterns of human land use for biodiversity and ecosystem function is increasingly important in landscape ecology. We examined effects of land-use change on four major forest communities of the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), addressed two questions: (1) Are and forest communities differentially...

Spatial Analysis of Post-Hurricane Katrina Thermal Pattern and Intensity in Greater New Orleans: Implications for Urban Heat Island Phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lief, Aram Parrish

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina's diverse impacts on the Greater New Orleans area included damaged and destroyed trees, and other despoiled vegetation, which also increased the exposure of artificial and bare surfaces, known factors that contribute to the climatic phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI). This is an investigation of UHI in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which entails the analysis of pre and post-hurricane Katrina thermal imagery of the study area, including changes to surface heat patterns and vegetative cover. Imagery from Landsat TM was used to show changes to the pattern and intensity of the UHI effect, caused by an extreme weather event. Using remote sensing visualization methods, in situ data, and local knowledge, the author found there was a measurable change in the pattern and intensity of the New Orleans UHI effect, as well as concomitant changes to vegetative land cover. This finding may be relevant for urban planners and citizens, especially in the context of recovery from a large-scale disaster of a coastal city, regarding future weather events, and other natural and human impacts.

Hydrological Responses of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes in Tao'er River Basin Based on the SWAT Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Kou, L.

2015-12-01

Abstract: The changes of both climate and land use/cover have some impact on the water resources. For Tao'er River Basin, these changes have a direct impact on the land use pattern adjustment, wetland protection, connection project between rivers and reservoirs, local social and economic development, etc. Therefore, studying the impact of climate and land use/cover changes is of great practical significance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as the research method. With historical actual measured runoff data and the yearly land use classification caught by satellite remote sensing maps, analyze the impact of climate change on the runoff of Tao'er River. And according to the land use/cover classification of 1990, 2000 and 2010, analyze the land use/cover change in the recent 30 years, the impact of the land use/cover change on the river runoff and the contribution coefficient of farmland, woodland, grassland and other major land-use types to the runoff. These studies can provide some references to the rational allocation of water resource and adjustment of land use structure in this area.

Diurnal variations in maize and soybean vegetation indices from continuous measurements of ground-based spectral reflectance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkebauer, T. J.; Walter-Shea, E. A.

2017-12-01

Vegetation indices, based on canopy spectral reflectance, are widely used to infer physical and biological characteristics of vegetation. Understanding the changes in remotely sensed signals as vegetation responds to its changing environment is essential for full assessment of canopy structure and function. Canopy-level reflectance has been measured at Nebraska AmeriFlux sites US-Ne1, US-Ne2 and US-Ne3 for most years since flux measurements were initiated in 2001. Tower-mounted spectral sensors provided 10-minute averaged reflectance (in PAR and NIR spectral regions) every half hour through the growing season for maize and soybean. Canopy reflectance varied over diurnal and seasonal time periods which led to variations in vegetation indices. One source of variation is due to the interaction of incident solar radiant energy with canopy structure (e.g., reflectance varies with changes in solar zenith angle and direct beam fraction, vegetative fraction, and leaf angle distribution). Another source of variation results from changes in canopy function (e.g., fluctuations in gross primary production and invocation of photoprotective mechanisms with plant stress). We present here a series of diurnal "patterns" of vegetation indices (including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Chlorophyll Index) for maize and soybean under mostly clear sky conditions. We demonstrate that diurnal patterns change as the LAI of the canopy changes through the course of the growing season in a somewhat predictable pattern from plant emergence (low vegetative cover) through peak green LAI (full vegetation cover). However, there are changes in the diurnal pattern that we have yet to fully understand; this variation in pattern may indicate variation in canopy function. Initially, we have explored the pattern changes qualitatively and are currently developing more quantitative approaches.

Land Use and Land Cover Change, Urban Heat Island Phenomenon, and Health Implications: A Remote Sensing Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, C. P.; Quattrochi, Dale A.

2003-01-01

Land use and land cover maps of Atlanta Metropolitan Area in Georgia were produced from Landsat MSS and TM images for 1973,1979,1983,1987,1992, and 1997, spanning a period of 25 years. Dramatic changes in land use and land cover have occurred with loss of forest and cropland to urban use. In particular, low-density urban use, which includes largely residential use, has increased by over 119% between 1973 and 1997. These land use and land cover changes have drastically altered the land surface characteristics. An analysis of Landsat images revealed an increase in surface temperature and a decline in NDVI from 1973 to 1997. These changes have forced the development of a significant urban heat island effect and an increase in ground level ozone production to such an extent, that Atlanta has violated EPA's ozone level standard in recent years. The urban heat island initiated precipitation events that were identified between 1996 and 2000 tended to occur near high-density urban areas but outside the I-285 loop that traverses around the Central Business District, i.e. not in the inner city area, but some in close proximity to the highways. The health implications were investigated by comparing the spatial patterns of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, the two ingredients that form ozone by reacting with sunlight, with those of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. A clear core-periphery pattern was revealed for both VOC and NOx emissions, but the spatial pattern was more random in the cases of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Clearly, factors other than ozone pollution were involved in explaining the rates of these diseases. Further research is therefore needed to understand the health geography and its relationship to land use and land cover change as well as urban heat island effect. This paper illustrates the usefulness of a remote sensing approach for this purpose.

Empirical models of transitions between coral reef states: effects of region, protection, and environmental change.

PubMed

Lowe, Phillip K; Bruno, John F; Selig, Elizabeth R; Spencer, Matthew

2011-01-01

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions. We analyzed reef surveys from the Caribbean and GBR (1996-2006). We defined a set of reef states distinguished by coral and macroalgal cover, and obtained Bayesian estimates of the annual probabilities of transitions between these states. The Caribbean and GBR had different transition probabilities, and therefore different rates of change in reef condition. This could be due to differences in species composition, management or the nature and extent of disturbances between these regions. We then estimated equilibrium probability distributions for reef states, and coral and macroalgal cover under constant environmental conditions. In both regions, the current distributions are close to equilibrium. In the Caribbean, coral cover is much lower and macroalgal cover is higher at equilibrium than in the GBR. We found no evidence for differences in transition probabilities between the first and second halves of our survey period, or between Caribbean reefs inside and outside marine protected areas. However, our power to detect such differences may have been low. We also examined the effects of altering transition probabilities on the community state equilibrium, along a continuum from unfavourable (e.g., increased sea surface temperature) to favourable (e.g., improved management) conditions. Both regions showed similar qualitative responses, but different patterns of uncertainty. In the Caribbean, uncertainty was greatest about effects of favourable changes, while in the GBR, we are most uncertain about effects of unfavourable changes. Our approach could be extended to provide risk analysis for management decisions.

Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Wallace, Cynthia; Webb, Robert H.

2016-01-01

Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R2 = 0.83 and 2010: R2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

Facilitation drives 65 years of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Turner, Raymond M.; Briggs, John M.

2010-01-01

Ecological processes of low-productivity ecosystems have long been considered to be driven by abiotic controls with biotic interactions playing an insignificant role. However, existing studies present conflicting evidence concerning the roles of these factors, in part due to the short temporal extent of most data sets and inability to test indirect effects of environmental variables modulated by biotic interactions. Using structural equation modeling to analyze 65 years of perennial vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert, we found that precipitation had a stronger positive effect on recruitment beneath existing canopies than in open microsites due to reduced evaporation rates. Variation in perennial canopy cover had additional facilitative effects on juvenile recruitment, which was indirectly driven by effects of density and precipitation on cover. Mortality was strongly influenced by competition as indicated by negative density-dependence, whereas precipitation had no effect. The combined direct, indirect, and interactive facilitative effects of precipitation and cover on recruitment were substantial, as was the effect of competition on mortality, providing strong evidence for dual control of community dynamics by climate and biotic interactions. Through an empirically derived simulation model, we also found that the positive feedback of density on cover produces unique temporal abundance patterns, buffering changes in abundance from high frequency variation in precipitation, amplifying effects of low frequency variation, and decoupling community abundance from precipitation patterns at high abundance. Such dynamics should be generally applicable to low-productivity systems in which facilitation is important and can only be understood within the context of long-term variation in climatic patterns. This predictive model can be applied to better manage low-productivity ecosystems, in which variation in biogeochemical processes and trophic dynamics may be driven by positive density-dependent feedbacks that influence temporal abundance and productivity patterns.

Relating Change Patterns to Anthropogenic Processes to Assess Sustainability: A Case Study in Amazonia

Treesearch

Libia Patricia Peralta Agudelo

2006-01-01

This work focuses on identifying deforestation patterns and relating these to social processes in an extractive reserve of Acre (western Amazonia). Using multitemporal satellite imagery deforestation is observed as a series of distinctive patches against the background of forest cover. The study of patterns emphasizes the important relationships existing between...

Functional Connectivity of Precipitation Networks in the Brazilian Rainforest-Savanna Transition Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, vegetation change has the potential to significantly affect precipitation patterns. Deforestation, in particular, can affect precipitation patterns by increasing land surface albedo, increasing aerosol loading to the atmosphere, changing land surface roughness, and reducing transpiration. Understanding land surface-precipitation couplings in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching and agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between precipitation and land cover. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect precipitation patterns. We take an empirical approach to ask: (1) what are the dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? (2) How do these length scales change over time? (3) How does the connectivity of precipitation change over time? The answers to these questions will help address fundamental questions about the impacts of deforestation on precipitation. We use rain gauge data from 1100 rain gauges intermittently covering the period 1980 - 2013, a period of intensive land cover change in the region. The dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling are resolved using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory. Connectivity of the emergent network of couplings is quantified using network statistics. Analyses using transfer entropy and network statistics reveal the spatial and temporal interdependencies of rainfall events occurring in different parts of the study domain.

Linking land use changes to surface water quality variability in Lake Victoria: some insights from remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mugo, R. M.; Limaye, A. S.; Nyaga, J. W.; Farah, H.; Wahome, A.; Flores, A.

2016-12-01

The water quality of inland lakes is largely influenced by land use and land cover changes within the lake's catchment. In Africa, some of the major land use changes are driven by a number of factors, which include urbanization, intensification of agricultural practices, unsustainable farm management practices, deforestation, land fragmentation and degradation. Often, the impacts of these factors are observable on changes in the land cover, and eventually in the hydrological systems. When the natural vegetation cover is reduced or changed, the surface water flow patterns, water and nutrient retention capacities are also changed. This can lead to high nutrient inputs into lakes, leading to eutrophication, siltation and infestation of floating aquatic vegetation. To assess the relationship between land use and land cover changes in part of the Lake Victoria Basin, a series of land cover maps were derived from Landsat imagery. Changes in land cover were identified through change maps and statistics. Further, the surface water chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity were derived from MODIS-Aqua data for Lake Victoria. Chlrophyll-a and turbidity are good proxy indicators of nutrient inputs and siltation respectively. The trends in chlorophyll-a and turbidity concentrations were analyzed and compared to the land cover changes over time. Certain land cover changes related to agriculture and urban development were clearly identifiable. While these changes might not be solely responsible for variability in chlrophyll-a and turbidity concentrations in the lake, they are potentially contributing factors to this problem. This work illustrates the importance of addressing watershed degradation while seeking to solve water quality related problems.

Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Arctic Ocean is the smallest of the Earth's four major oceans, covering 14x10(exp 6) sq km located entirely within the Arctic Circle (66 deg 33 min N). It is a major player in the climate of the north polar region and has a variable sea ice cover that tends to increase its sensitivity to climate change. Its temperature, salinity, and ice cover have all undergone changes in the past several decades, although it is uncertain whether these predominantly reflect long-term trends, oscillations within the system, or natural variability. Major changes include a warming and expansion of the Atlantic layer, at depths of 200-900 m, a warming of the upper ocean in the Beaufort Sea, a considerable thinning (perhaps as high as 40%) of the sea ice cover, a lesser and uneven retreat of the ice cover (averaging approximately 3% per decade), and a mixed pattern of salinity increases and decreases.

Modeling the Land Use/Cover Change in an Arid Region Oasis City Constrained by Water Resource and Environmental Policy Change using Cellular Automata Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.

2017-12-01

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.

Unravelling long-term vegetation change patterns in a binational watershed using multitemporal land cover data and historical photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel L.; Norman, Laura M.; Webb, Robert H.; Boyer, Diane E.; Turner, Raymond M.

2011-01-01

A significant amount of research conducted in the Sonoran Desert of North America has documented, both anecdotally and empirically, major vegetation changes over the past century due to human land use activities. However, many studies lack coincidental landscape-scale data characterizing the spatial and temporal manifestation of these changes. Vegetation changes in a binational (USA and Mexico) watershed were documented using a series of four land cover maps (1979-2009) derived from multispectral satellite imagery. Cover changes are compared to georeferenced, repeat oblique photographs dating from the late 19th century to present. Results indicate the expansion of grassland over the past 20 years following nearly a century of decline. Historical repeat photography documents early-mid 20th century mesquite invasions, but recent land cover data and rephotography demonstrate declines in xeroriparian/riparian mesquite communities in recent decades. These vegetation changes are variable over the landscape and influenced by topography and land management.

Unravelling long-term vegetation change patterns in a binational watershed using multitemporal land cover data and historical photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, M.L.; Norman, L.M.; Webb, R.H.; Boyer, D.E.; Turner, R.M.

2011-01-01

A significant amount of research conducted in the Sonoran Desert of North America has documented, both anecdotally and empirically, major vegetation changes over the past century due to human land use activities. However, many studies lack coincidental landscape-scale data characterizing the spatial and temporal manifestation of these changes. Vegetation changes in a binational (USA and Mexico) watershed were documented using a series of four land cover maps (1979-2009) derived from multispectral satellite imagery. Cover changes are compared to georeferenced, repeat oblique photographs dating from the late 19th century to present. Results indicate the expansion of grassland over the past 20 years following nearly a century of decline. Historical repeat photography documents early-mid 20th century mesquite invasions, but recent land cover data and rephotography demonstrate declines in xeroriparian/riparian mesquite communities in recent decades. These vegetation changes are variable over the landscape and influenced by topography and land management. ?? 2011 IEEE.

Shift in fire-ecosystems and weather changes

Treesearch

Bongani Finiza

2013-01-01

During recent decades too much focus fell on fire suppression and fire engineering methods. Little attention has been given to understanding the shift in the changing fire weather resulting from the global change in weather patterns. Weather change have gradually changed the way vegetation cover respond to fire occurrence and brought about changes in fire behavior and...

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.

2008-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario prescriptions were met, using measured Land Cover Trends data to guide patch characteristics and the probability surfaces to guide placement. The approach provides an efficient method for extrapolating historical land-cover trends and is amenable to the incorporation of more detailed and focused studies for the establishment of scenario prescriptions.

Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian tundra ecotones since the 1960s.

PubMed

Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E

2014-04-01

Circumpolar expansion of tall shrubs and trees into Arctic tundra is widely thought to be occurring as a result of recent climate warming, but little quantitative evidence exists for northern Siberia, which encompasses the world's largest forest-tundra ecotonal belt. We quantified changes in tall shrub and tree canopy cover in 11, widely distributed Siberian ecotonal landscapes by comparing very high-resolution photography from the Cold War-era 'Gambit' and 'Corona' satellite surveillance systems (1965-1969) with modern imagery. We also analyzed within-landscape patterns of vegetation change to evaluate the susceptibility of different landscape components to tall shrub and tree increase. The total cover of tall shrubs and trees increased in nine of 11 ecotones. In northwest Siberia, alder (Alnus) shrubland cover increased 5.3-25.9% in five ecotones. In Taymyr and Yakutia, larch (Larix) cover increased 3.0-6.7% within three ecotones, but declined 16.8% at a fourth ecotone due to thaw of ice-rich permafrost. In Chukotka, the total cover of alder and dwarf pine (Pinus) increased 6.1% within one ecotone and was little changed at a second ecotone. Within most landscapes, shrub and tree increase was linked to specific geomorphic settings, especially those with active disturbance regimes such as permafrost patterned-ground, floodplains, and colluvial hillslopes. Mean summer temperatures increased at most ecotones since the mid-1960s, but rates of shrub and tree canopy cover expansion were not strongly correlated with temperature trends and were better correlated with mean annual precipitation. We conclude that shrub and tree cover is increasing in tundra ecotones across most of northern Siberia, but rates of increase vary widely regionally and at the landscape scale. Our results indicate that extensive changes can occur within decades in moist, shrub-dominated ecotones, as in northwest Siberia, while changes are likely to occur much more slowly in the highly continental, larch-dominated ecotones of central and eastern Siberia. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Monitoring changes in landscape pattern: use of Ikonos and Quickbird images.

PubMed

Alphan, Hakan; Çelik, Nil

2016-02-01

This paper aimed to analyze short-term changes in landscape pattern that primarily results from building development in the east coast of Mersin Province (Turkey). Three sites were selected. Ikonos (2003) and Quickbird (2009) images for these sites were classified, and land cover transformations were quantitatively analyzed using cross-tabulation of classification results. Changes in landscape structure were assessed by comparing the calculated values of area/edge and shape metrics for the earlier and later dates. Area/edge metrics included percentage of land and edge density, while shape metrics included perimeter-area ratio, fractal dimension, and related circumscribing circle (RCC) metrics. Orchards and buildings were dominating land cover classes. Variations in patch edge, size, and shapes were also analyzed and discussed. Degradation of prime agricultural areas due to building development and implications of such development on habitat fragmentation were highlighted.

Snow cover variability in a forest ecotone of the Oregon Cascades via MODIS Terra products

Treesearch

Tihomir Sabinov Kostadinov; Todd R. Lookingbill

2015-01-01

Snowcover pattern and persistence have important implications for planetary energy balance, climate sensitivity to forcings, and vegetation structure, function, and composition. Variability in snow cover within mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest, USA is attributable to a combination of anthropogenic climate change and climate oscillations. However,...

Fire forbids fifty-fifty forest

PubMed Central

Staal, Arie; Hantson, Stijn; Holmgren, Milena; Pueyo, Salvador; Bernardi, Rafael E.; Flores, Bernardo M.; Xu, Chi; Scheffer, Marten

2018-01-01

Recent studies have interpreted patterns of remotely sensed tree cover as evidence that forest with intermediate tree cover might be unstable in the tropics, as it will tip into either a closed forest or a more open savanna state. Here we show that across all continents the frequency of wildfires rises sharply as tree cover falls below ~40%. Using a simple empirical model, we hypothesize that the steepness of this pattern causes intermediate tree cover (30‒60%) to be unstable for a broad range of assumptions on tree growth and fire-driven mortality. We show that across all continents, observed frequency distributions of tropical tree cover are consistent with this hypothesis. We argue that percolation of fire through an open landscape may explain the remarkably universal rise of fire frequency around a critical tree cover, but we show that simple percolation models cannot predict the actual threshold quantitatively. The fire-driven instability of intermediate states implies that tree cover will not change smoothly with climate or other stressors and shifts between closed forest and a state of low tree cover will likely tend to be relatively sharp and difficult to reverse. PMID:29351323

Fire forbids fifty-fifty forest.

PubMed

van Nes, Egbert H; Staal, Arie; Hantson, Stijn; Holmgren, Milena; Pueyo, Salvador; Bernardi, Rafael E; Flores, Bernardo M; Xu, Chi; Scheffer, Marten

2018-01-01

Recent studies have interpreted patterns of remotely sensed tree cover as evidence that forest with intermediate tree cover might be unstable in the tropics, as it will tip into either a closed forest or a more open savanna state. Here we show that across all continents the frequency of wildfires rises sharply as tree cover falls below ~40%. Using a simple empirical model, we hypothesize that the steepness of this pattern causes intermediate tree cover (30‒60%) to be unstable for a broad range of assumptions on tree growth and fire-driven mortality. We show that across all continents, observed frequency distributions of tropical tree cover are consistent with this hypothesis. We argue that percolation of fire through an open landscape may explain the remarkably universal rise of fire frequency around a critical tree cover, but we show that simple percolation models cannot predict the actual threshold quantitatively. The fire-driven instability of intermediate states implies that tree cover will not change smoothly with climate or other stressors and shifts between closed forest and a state of low tree cover will likely tend to be relatively sharp and difficult to reverse.

Forest dynamics in the U.S. indicate disproportionate attrition in western forests, rural areas and public lands

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Forests are experiencing significant changes; studying geographic patterns in forests is critical in understanding the impact of forest dynamics to biodiversity, soil erosion, water chemistry and climate. Few studies have examined forest geographic pattern changes other than fragmentation; however, other spatial processes of forest dynamics are of equal importance. Here, we study forest attrition, the complete removal of forest patches, that can result in complete habitat loss, severe decline of population sizes and species richness, and shifts of local and regional environmental conditions. We aim to develop a simple yet insightful proximity-based spatial indicator capturing forest attrition that is independent of spatial scale and boundaries with worldwide application potential. Using this proximity indicator, we evaluate forest attrition across ecoregions, land ownership and urbanization stratifications across continental United States of America. Nationally, the total forest cover loss was approximately 90,400 km2, roughly the size of the state of Maine, constituting a decline of 2.96%. Examining the spatial arrangement of this change the average FAD was 3674m in 1992 and increased by 514m or 14.0% in 2001. Simulations of forest cover loss indicate only a 10m FAD increase suggesting that the observed FAD increase was more than an order of magnitude higher than expected. Furthermore, forest attrition is considerably higher in the western United States, in rural areas and in public lands. Our mathematical model (R2 = 0.93) supports estimation of attrition for a given forest cover. The FAD metric quantifies forest attrition across spatial scales and geographic boundaries and assesses unambiguously changes over time. The metric is applicable to any landscape and offers a new complementary insight on forest landscape patterns from local to global scales, improving future exploration of drivers and repercussions of forest cover changes and supporting more informative management of forest carbon, changing climate and species biodiversity. PMID:28225787

Assessment of climate change effects on mountain ecosystems through a cross-site analysis in the Alps and Apennines.

PubMed

Rogora, M; Frate, L; Carranza, M L; Freppaz, M; Stanisci, A; Bertani, I; Bottarin, R; Brambilla, A; Canullo, R; Carbognani, M; Cerrato, C; Chelli, S; Cremonese, E; Cutini, M; Di Musciano, M; Erschbamer, B; Godone, D; Iocchi, M; Isabellon, M; Magnani, A; Mazzola, L; Morra di Cella, U; Pauli, H; Petey, M; Petriccione, B; Porro, F; Psenner, R; Rossetti, G; Scotti, A; Sommaruga, R; Tappeiner, U; Theurillat, J-P; Tomaselli, M; Viglietti, D; Viterbi, R; Vittoz, P; Winkler, M; Matteucci, G

2018-05-15

Mountain ecosystems are sensitive and reliable indicators of climate change. Long-term studies may be extremely useful in assessing the responses of high-elevation ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers from a broad ecological perspective. Mountain research sites within the LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) network are representative of various types of ecosystems and span a wide bioclimatic and elevational range. Here, we present a synthesis and a review of the main results from ecological studies in mountain ecosystems at 20 LTER sites in Italy, Switzerland and Austria covering in most cases more than two decades of observations. We analyzed a set of key climate parameters, such as temperature and snow cover duration, in relation to vascular plant species composition, plant traits, abundance patterns, pedoclimate, nutrient dynamics in soils and water, phenology and composition of freshwater biota. The overall results highlight the rapid response of mountain ecosystems to climate change, with site-specific characteristics and rates. As temperatures increased, vegetation cover in alpine and subalpine summits increased as well. Years with limited snow cover duration caused an increase in soil temperature and microbial biomass during the growing season. Effects on freshwater ecosystems were also observed, in terms of increases in solutes, decreases in nitrates and changes in plankton phenology and benthos communities. This work highlights the importance of comparing and integrating long-term ecological data collected in different ecosystems for a more comprehensive overview of the ecological effects of climate change. Nevertheless, there is a need for (i) adopting co-located monitoring site networks to improve our ability to obtain sound results from cross-site analysis, (ii) carrying out further studies, in particular short-term analyses with fine spatial and temporal resolutions to improve our understanding of responses to extreme events, and (iii) increasing comparability and standardizing protocols across networks to distinguish local patterns from global patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest dynamics in the U.S. indicate disproportionate attrition in western forests, rural areas and public lands.

PubMed

Yang, Sheng; Mountrakis, Giorgos

2017-01-01

Forests are experiencing significant changes; studying geographic patterns in forests is critical in understanding the impact of forest dynamics to biodiversity, soil erosion, water chemistry and climate. Few studies have examined forest geographic pattern changes other than fragmentation; however, other spatial processes of forest dynamics are of equal importance. Here, we study forest attrition, the complete removal of forest patches, that can result in complete habitat loss, severe decline of population sizes and species richness, and shifts of local and regional environmental conditions. We aim to develop a simple yet insightful proximity-based spatial indicator capturing forest attrition that is independent of spatial scale and boundaries with worldwide application potential. Using this proximity indicator, we evaluate forest attrition across ecoregions, land ownership and urbanization stratifications across continental United States of America. Nationally, the total forest cover loss was approximately 90,400 km2, roughly the size of the state of Maine, constituting a decline of 2.96%. Examining the spatial arrangement of this change the average FAD was 3674m in 1992 and increased by 514m or 14.0% in 2001. Simulations of forest cover loss indicate only a 10m FAD increase suggesting that the observed FAD increase was more than an order of magnitude higher than expected. Furthermore, forest attrition is considerably higher in the western United States, in rural areas and in public lands. Our mathematical model (R2 = 0.93) supports estimation of attrition for a given forest cover. The FAD metric quantifies forest attrition across spatial scales and geographic boundaries and assesses unambiguously changes over time. The metric is applicable to any landscape and offers a new complementary insight on forest landscape patterns from local to global scales, improving future exploration of drivers and repercussions of forest cover changes and supporting more informative management of forest carbon, changing climate and species biodiversity.

A Multi-Index Integrated Change detection method for updating the National Land Cover Database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jin, Suming; Yang, Limin; Xian, George Z.; Danielson, Patrick; Homer, Collin G.

2010-01-01

Land cover change is typically captured by comparing two or more dates of imagery and associating spectral change with true thematic change. A new change detection method, Multi-Index Integrated Change (MIIC), has been developed to capture a full range of land cover disturbance patterns for updating the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Specific indices typically specialize in identifying only certain types of disturbances; for example, the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) has been widely used for monitoring fire disturbance. Recognizing the potential complementary nature of multiple indices, we integrated four indices into one model to more accurately detect true change between two NLCD time periods. The four indices are NBR, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Change Vector (CV), and a newly developed index called the Relative Change Vector (RCV). The model is designed to provide both change location and change direction (e.g. biomass increase or biomass decrease). The integrated change model has been tested on five image pairs from different regions exhibiting a variety of disturbance types. Compared with a simple change vector method, MIIC can better capture the desired change without introducing additional commission errors. The model is particularly accurate at detecting forest disturbances, such as forest harvest, forest fire, and forest regeneration. Agreement between the initial change map areas derived from MIIC and the retained final land cover type change areas will be showcased from the pilot test sites.

Change detection and classification of land cover in multispectral satellite imagery using clustering of sparse approximations (CoSA) over learned feature dictionaries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moody, Daniela I.; Brumby, Steven P.; Rowland, Joel C.

Neuromimetic machine vision and pattern recognition algorithms are of great interest for landscape characterization and change detection in satellite imagery in support of global climate change science and modeling. We present results from an ongoing effort to extend machine vision methods to the environmental sciences, using adaptive sparse signal processing combined with machine learning. A Hebbian learning rule is used to build multispectral, multiresolution dictionaries from regional satellite normalized band difference index data. Land cover labels are automatically generated via our CoSA algorithm: Clustering of Sparse Approximations, using a clustering distance metric that combines spectral and spatial textural characteristics tomore » help separate geologic, vegetative, and hydrologie features. We demonstrate our method on example Worldview-2 satellite images of an Arctic region, and use CoSA labels to detect seasonal surface changes. In conclusion, our results suggest that neuroscience-based models are a promising approach to practical pattern recognition and change detection problems in remote sensing.« less

Change detection and classification of land cover in multispectral satellite imagery using clustering of sparse approximations (CoSA) over learned feature dictionaries

DOE PAGES

Moody, Daniela I.; Brumby, Steven P.; Rowland, Joel C.; ...

2014-10-01

Neuromimetic machine vision and pattern recognition algorithms are of great interest for landscape characterization and change detection in satellite imagery in support of global climate change science and modeling. We present results from an ongoing effort to extend machine vision methods to the environmental sciences, using adaptive sparse signal processing combined with machine learning. A Hebbian learning rule is used to build multispectral, multiresolution dictionaries from regional satellite normalized band difference index data. Land cover labels are automatically generated via our CoSA algorithm: Clustering of Sparse Approximations, using a clustering distance metric that combines spectral and spatial textural characteristics tomore » help separate geologic, vegetative, and hydrologie features. We demonstrate our method on example Worldview-2 satellite images of an Arctic region, and use CoSA labels to detect seasonal surface changes. In conclusion, our results suggest that neuroscience-based models are a promising approach to practical pattern recognition and change detection problems in remote sensing.« less

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Li, Guiying; Moran, Emilio; Hetrick, Scott

2013-01-01

This paper provides a comparative analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) changes among three study areas with different biophysical environments in the Brazilian Amazon at multiple scales, from per-pixel, polygon, census sector, to study area. Landsat images acquired in the years of 1990/1991, 1999/2000, and 2008/2010 were used to examine LULC change trajectories with the post-classification comparison approach. A classification system composed of six classes – forest, savanna, other-vegetation (secondary succession and plantations), agro-pasture, impervious surface, and water, was designed for this study. A hierarchical-based classification method was used to classify Landsat images into thematic maps. This research shows different spatiotemporal change patterns, composition and rates among the three study areas and indicates the importance of analyzing LULC change at multiple scales. The LULC change analysis over time for entire study areas provides an overall picture of change trends, but detailed change trajectories and their spatial distributions can be better examined at a per-pixel scale. The LULC change at the polygon scale provides the information of the changes in patch sizes over time, while the LULC change at census sector scale gives new insights on how human-induced activities (e.g., urban expansion, roads, and land use history) affect LULC change patterns and rates. This research indicates the necessity to implement change detection at multiple scales for better understanding the mechanisms of LULC change patterns and rates. PMID:24127130

Land use/ land cover and ecosystem functions change in the grassland restoration program areas in China from 2000 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Fan, J.

2015-12-01

The grassland restoration areas in China, most of which was located in arid and semi-arid areas, are affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities. Using the 3S (RS, GIS, GPS) technologies, quantitative analysis method of landscape patterns and ecological simulation, this study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of land use/ land cover and ecosystem functions change in the grassland restoration areas in China from 2000 to 2010. We apply two parameters land use transfer matrix and land use dynamic degree to explore the speed and regional differentiation of land use change. We propose vegetation coverage, net primary production (NPP), soil and water conservation capacity to assess the ecosystem functions. This study analyzes the characteristics of landscape patterns at the class and landscape levels and explores the ecological effect of land use pattern and regional ecological processes. The results show that: (1) Grassland and others were the main landscape types in the study area in the past decade. The ecosystem structure was stable. About 0.37% of the total grassland area in 2000 experienced change in land use / land cover types. The area of woodlands, wetlands, farmlands, and built-up areas expanded. The area of others has declined. (2) The dynamic degree of regional land use was less than one percent in the recent ten years. The speed of land use and land cover change was low, and regional differentiation of change between the provinces was small. (3) The matrix of the landscape did not change in the study area. Landscape fragmentation index values decreased progressively; landscape diversity rose continuously; landscape aggregation and continuity decreased slightly; the landscape maintained relative integrity. (4) Ecosystem functions has increased as a whole. The vegetation coverages with significant increase (with a 1.99% yr-1 slope of regression) in the total study area; NPP has a fluctuating and increasing tendency, ranging from 218.23 gC·m-2yr-1 in 2000, to 226.30 gC·m-2yr-1 in 2010, with a 3.70% increase; Soil and water conservation capacity has showed an obvious increment. (5) The grassland restoration program implementation evidently improved the structure and stability of the land use/ land cover. The climatic variations (temperature and precipitation) promoted vegetation growth.

Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2012-01-01

This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

Analysis of Land Use Change and Urbanization in the Kucukcekmece Water Basin (Istanbul, Turkey) with Temporal Satellite Data using Remote Sensing and GIS.

PubMed

Coskun, H Gonca; Alganci, Ugur; Usta, Gokce

2008-11-13

Accurate and timely information about land use and land cover (LULC) and its changes in urban areas are crucial for urban land management decision-making, ecosystem monitoring and urban planning. Also, monitoring and representation of urban sprawl and its effects on the LULC patterns and hydrological processes of an urbanized watershed is an essential part of water resource planning and management. This paper presents an image analysis study using multi temporal digital satellite imagery of LULC and changes in the Kucukcekmece Watershed (Metropolitan Istanbul, Turkey) from 1992 to 2006. The Kucukcekmece Basin includes portions of the Kucukcekmece District within the municipality of Istanbul so it faces a dramatic urbanization. An urban monitoring analysis approach was first used to implement a land cover classification. A change detection method controlled with ground truth information was then used to determine changes in land cover. During the study period, the variability and magnitude of hydrological components based on land-use patterns were cumulatively influenced by urban sprawl in the watershed. The proposed approach, which uses a combination of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, is an effective tool that enhances land-use monitoring, planning, and management of urbanized watersheds.

Analysis of Land Use Change and Urbanization in the Kucukcekmece Water Basin (Istanbul, Turkey) with Temporal Satellite Data using Remote Sensing and GIS

PubMed Central

Coskun, H. Gonca; Alganci, Ugur; Usta, Gokce

2008-01-01

Accurate and timely information about land use and land cover (LULC) and its changes in urban areas are crucial for urban land management decision-making, ecosystem monitoring and urban planning. Also, monitoring and representation of urban sprawl and its effects on the LULC patterns and hydrological processes of an urbanized watershed is an essential part of water resource planning and management. This paper presents an image analysis study using multi temporal digital satellite imagery of LULC and changes in the Kucukcekmece Watershed (Metropolitan Istanbul, Turkey) from 1992 to 2006. The Kucukcekmece Basin includes portions of the Kucukcekmece District within the municipality of Istanbul so it faces a dramatic urbanization. An urban monitoring analysis approach was first used to implement a land cover classification. A change detection method controlled with ground truth information was then used to determine changes in land cover. During the study period, the variability and magnitude of hydrological components based on land-use patterns were cumulatively influenced by urban sprawl in the watershed. The proposed approach, which uses a combination of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, is an effective tool that enhances land-use monitoring, planning, and management of urbanized watersheds. PMID:27873924

Land Cover Change in the Vicinity of MT. Qomolangma (everest), Central High Himalayas Since 1976

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Nie, Y.; Liu, L.; Wang, Z.; Ding, M.; Zhang, J.

2010-12-01

Under the background of global environmental change, the Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) region becomes the ideal place for the research of earth-atmosphere system, water and energy change, ecosystem patterns and processes change due to its sensitive and fragile natural environment. Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. In this paper, geography, spatial information, climate science and other related theories and methods were applied, with the help of remote sensing, GIS, GPS, combining with a large number of RS data, field survey data and meteorological observation data to build 3 periods (1976, 1988 and 2006) of land cover, 30 periods (1970-2009) of major lakes data and long time-series NDVI change data from 1982 to 2009 in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The main results are as follows: 1. The land cover types in Mt. Qomolangma region are rich and with distinctive alpine features. The main land cover types include: closed to open grassland, alpine sparse vegetation, bare rock, closed grassland, forbs and glaciers (each percentage larger than 7%) with the area of 8274.27 km2, 7515.15 km2, 5450.82 km2, 5215.85 km2, 2782.66 km2 and 2710.17 km2 respectively in 2006. 2. The distribution of the main cover types are of obvious vertical zonallity. The transition of land cover types is forest→shrubland→grassland→meadow→sparse grassland→bare rock →glacier in order as the altitude arises with basically Gaussian distribution and assending peak in each elevation zone of types. The dominant natural zones distributed from bottom to top are: forest dominated zone (1500 ~ 3900 m), shrubland dominated zone (3900 ~ 4100 m), grassland dominated zone (4100 ~ 5000 m), sparse vegetation dominated zone (5000 ~ 5600 m), bare land dominated zone (5600 ~ 5900 m) and glacier (>5900 m). The altitude distribution of forest, shrubland and grassland in north and south slope are generally consistent. The range of vegetation at vertical distribution in the Sagamasha area located in the southern slope is slightly higer than than in the Mt. Qomolangma region due to its better regional water and heat conditions. 3. The distribution patterns of the main land cover types in the Mt. Qomolangma region during 1976-2006 don’t change greatly. The land cover changes during the two periods (1976-1988, 1988-2006) have shown a good consistency. The most prominent changing characteristics are: significant glacier retreat, more bare rock outcrops, rapid expansion of glacial lake covered bare rock, lakes shrinking and wetlands growth, wetlands being reclaimed as farmland in the prior period and significant reduce of cultivated land in the latter period. The research have been analyzed the glaciers, wetland and other cover types that are sensitive to climate change. The relationship between the land cover types and climate change, the impacts of human activities on land cover change and the effectiveness of protected area have been discussed. Foundation: The National Basic Research Program of China, Grant No.2005CB422006 & 2010CB951704; External Cooperation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.GJHZ0954

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-02-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-06-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

Estimation of Land Surface Temperature for the Quantitative Analysis of Land Cover of Lower Areas of Sindh to Assess the Impacts of Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaisar, Maha

2016-07-01

Due to the present land use practices and climate variability, drastic shifts in regional climate and land covers are easily seen and their future reduction and gain are too well predicted. Therefore, there is an increasing need for data on land-cover changes at narrow and broad spatial scales. In this study, a remote sensing-based technique for land-cover-change analysis is applied to the lower Sindh areas for the last decade. Landsat satellite products were analyzed on an alternate yearly basis, from 1990 to 2016. Then Land-cover-change magnitudes were measured and mapped for alternate years. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is one of the critical elements in the natural phenomena of surface energy and water balance at local and global extent. However, LST was computed by using Landsat thermal bands via brightness temperature and a vegetation index. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was interpreted and maps were achieved. LST reflected NDVI patterns with complexity of vegetation patterns. Along with this, Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) was done for classifying 5 major classes of water, vegetation, urban, marshy lands and barren lands with significant map layouts. Pakistan Meteorological Department provided the climate data in which rainfall, temperature and air temperature are included. Once the LST and OBIA are performed, overlay analysis was done to correlate the results of LST with OBIA and LST with meteorological data to ascertain the changes in land covers due to increasing centigrade of LST. However, satellite derived LST was also correlated with climate data for environmental analysis and to estimate Land Surface Temperature for assessing the inverse impacts of climate variability. This study's results demonstrate the land-cover changes in Lower Areas of Sindh including the Indus Delta mostly involve variations in land-cover conditions due to inter-annual climatic variability and temporary shifts in seasonality. However it is too concluded that transitory alteration of the biophysical characteristics of the surface driven by variations in rainfall is the prevailing progression. Moreover, future work will focus on finer-scale analysis and validations of patterns of changes due to rapid urbanization and population explosion in poverty stricken areas of Sindh which are posing an adverse impact on the land utilization and in turn increasing the land surface temperature and ultimately more stress on the low lying areas of Sindh i.e. Indus Delta will be losing its productivity and capacity to bear biodiversity whether the fauna or flora. Hence, this regional scale problem will become a global concern. Therefore, it is needed to stop the menace in its starting phase to mitigate the problem and to bring minds on this horrendous situation.

Covering #SAE: A Mobile Reporting Class's Changing Patterns of Interaction on Twitter over Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Julie

2015-01-01

This study examined the social network that emerged on Twitter surrounding a mobile reporting class as they covered a national breaking news event. The work introduces pedagogical strategies that enhance students' learning opportunities. Through NodeXL and social network cluster analysis, six groups emerged from the Twitter interactions tied to…

Simulated climate effects of land degradation near Urumqi, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, N. J.; Qi, J.

2009-12-01

Western China's drylands, particularly around Urumqi city in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are changing due to increased grazing pressures, urban growth, and increasing population. These changes, driven by national policies of openness and economic development, are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The continued degradation of rangelands surrounding Urumqi can impact not only socioeconomic characteristics but also regional climate patterns. Here we show results from high-resolution regional climate simulations of the Urumqi area using the RAMS regional climate model. Under differing levels of rangeland degradation, from no degradation in vegetative cover and leaf area index (LAI) to 75% reduction a variety of impacts are found in the region. We examined the impacts of these changes in land cover properties via current rangeland management practices, including influences on summertime rainfall (important for grassland production) and year-round wind patterns, which are two major natural factors related to the air pollution and water scarcity of the city.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Detecting trends in landscape pattern metrics over a 20-year period using a sampling-based monitoring programme

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Stehman, S.V.; Sohl, Terry L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2003-01-01

Temporal trends in landscape pattern metrics describing texture, patch shape and patch size were evaluated in the US Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregion. The landscape pattern metrics were calculated for a sample of land use/cover data obtained for four points in time from 1973-1992. The multiple sampling dates permit evaluation of trend, whereas availability of only two sampling dates allows only evaluation of change. Observed statistically significant trends in the landscape pattern metrics demonstrated that the sampling-based monitoring protocol was able to detect a trend toward a more fine-grained landscape in this ecoregion. This sampling and analysis protocol is being extended spatially to the remaining 83 ecoregions in the US and temporally to the year 2000 to provide a national and regional synthesis of the temporal and spatial dynamics of landscape pattern covering the period 1973-2000.

Impacts of global change on landslide hazard and risk in Europe in 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaedicke, C.; Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.; Sverdrup-Thygeson, K.; Radermacher, C.; Fischer, G.; Hervas, J.; Van Den Eeckhaut, M.

2012-04-01

The research done previously in the SafeLand project (www.safeland-fp7.eu) identified the hotspots of landslide hazard and risk in Europe using three different models. All models were, however, based on the same input data. The analyses covered entire Europe, such that differences between regions and countries in Europe could be identified. This homogenous and objective analysis allowed comparing and ranking European countries in absolute or relative numbers of exposed land area, population and infrastructure. All models identified Italy as the country with the highest exposure to landslide risk. However, the small alpine countries had the highest relative exposure compared to their total land area and population. Overall, 4 to 7 million people in Europe, as well as significant amount of infrastructure are exposed to landslide threat. In the expectation of a changing climate, the question arises on how the level and spatial pattern of landslide hazard and risk in Europe will develop in the 21st century. To answer this question, several factors must be considered. Not only will the climate change in the next 90 years, but also the demography and land cover in Europe will change significantly. Prognosis of landslide risk must take into account a possible reduction in the total population and significant urbanisation in most parts of Europe. This again leads to changes in land cover where for example the amount of forested areas and urban areas may change dramatically. The paper presents the results of a study in the SafeLand project that explores the possible changes in landslide risk and hazard in Europe. The main objective of the study was to quantify the landslide hazard and risk in Europe now and in the future and see if there will be significant changes. Changing precipitation pattern, land cover and population were used as input to assess the landslide hazard and risk in the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. The results were then compared to the present situation in 2010. The effect of climate change varies depending on the type of landslide. In this study the focus was on precipitation-induced landslides, which are a direct consequence of the extreme precipitation events and therefore closely coupled to a change in the frequency of extreme events. Other landslides caused by draught or melt-freeze cycles are often followed a complex sequence of weather events that are difficult, if not impossible to forecast into the future. The study showed that climate change and changes in land cover will only cause minor variations in landslide hazard. The risk associated with landslides, however, is expected to change significantly due to changing patterns of population in Europe.

Variability in Phonetics. York Papers in Linguistics, No. 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tatham, M. A. A.

Variability is a term used to cover several types of phenomena in language sound patterns and in phonetic realization of those patterns. Variability refers to the fact that every repetition of an utterance is different, in amplitude, rate of delivery, formant frequencies, fundamental frequency or minor phase relationship changes across the sound…

Monitoring conservation effectiveness in a global biodiversity hotspot: the contribution of land cover change assessment.

PubMed

Joseph, Shijo; Blackburn, George Alan; Gharai, Biswadip; Sudhakar, S; Thomas, A P; Murthy, M S R

2009-11-01

Tropical forests, which play critical roles in global biogeochemical cycles, radiation budgets and biodiversity, have undergone rapid changes in land cover in the last few decades. This study examines the complex process of land cover change in the biodiversity hotspot of Western Ghats, India, specifically investigating the effects of conservation measures within the Indira Gandhi Wildlife Sanctuary. Current vegetation patterns were mapped using an IRS P6 LISS III image and this was used together with Landsat MSS data from 1973 to map land cover transitions. Two major and divergent trends were observed. A dominant degradational trend can be attributed to agricultural expansion and infrastructure development while a successional trend, resulting from protection of the area, showed the resilience of the system after prolonged disturbances. The sanctuary appears susceptible to continuing disturbances under the current management regime but at lower rates than in surrounding unprotected areas. The study demonstrates that remotely sensed land cover assessments can have important contributions to monitoring land management strategies, understanding processes underpinning land use changes and helping to inform future conservation strategies.

Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K. C. Benita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or "anthropogenic" activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes...

A multiyear study of soil moisture patterns across agricultural and forested landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, C. B.; Hofmeister, K.; O'Connor, C.; Buchanan, B.; Walter, T.

2017-12-01

This work compares varying spatial and temporal soil moisture patterns in wet and dry years between forested and agricultural landscapes. This data set spans 6 years (2012-2017) of snow-free soil moisture measurements across multiple watersheds and land covers in New York State's Finger Lakes region. Due to the relatively long sampling period, we have captured fluctuations in soil moisture dynamics across wetter, dryer, and average precipitation years. We can therefore analyze response of land cover types to precipitation under varying climatic and hydrologic conditions. Across the study period, mean soil moisture in forest soils was significantly drier than in agricultural soils, and exhibited a smaller range of moisture conditions. In the drought year of 2016, soil moisture at all sites was significantly drier compared to the other years. When comparing the effects of land cover and year on soil moisture, we found that land cover had a more significant influence. Understanding the difference in landscape soil moisture dynamics between forested and agricultural land will help predict watershed responses to changing precipitation patterns in the future.

Snowmelt Pattern and Lake Ice Phenology around Tibetan Plateau Estimated from Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, C.; Shi, J.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Snow and ice is very sensitive to the climate change. Rising air temperature will cause the snowmelt time change. In contrast, the change in snow state will have feedback on climate through snow albedo. The snow melt timing is also correlated with the associated runoff. Ice phenology describes the seasonal cycle of lake ice cover and includes freeze-up and breakup periods and ice cover duration, which is an important weather and climate indicator. It is also important for lake-atmosphere interactions and hydrological and ecological processes. The enhanced resolution (up to 3.125 km) passive microwave data is used to estimate the snowmelt pattern and lake ice phenology on and around Tibetan Plateau. The enhanced resolution makes the estimation of snowmelt and lake ice phenology in more spatial detail compared to previous 25 km gridded passive microwave data. New algorithm based on smooth filters and change point detection was developed to estimate the snowmelt and lake ice freeze-up and break-up timing. Spatial and temporal pattern of snowmelt and lake ice phonology are estimated. This study provides an objective evidence of climate change impact on the cryospheric system on Tibetan Plateau. The results show significant earlier snowmelt and lake ice break-up in some regions.

The tropical climate and vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D. N.; Paul, A.; Prange, M.; Merkel, U.; Dupont, L. M.; Zhang, X.

2013-12-01

Past abrupt climate change associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP) is thought to be connected to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The accompanying abrupt climate changes affect not only the ocean, but also the continents. Furthermore, a strong impact on vegetation patterns during this event is registered both at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics. Pollen data from the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean (in our study from Angola and Brazil) suggest an effect on tropical vegetation through a southward shift of the rainbelt. However, the response appears to be very different in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the different climate and vegetation pattern responses in the terrestrial tropics and to gain deeper insight into high-low-latitude climate interactions, we studied the climate and vegetation changes during the HE1 by using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). In both models, we simulated a similar HE1-like climate state. To facilitate the comparison between the model results and the available pollen records, we generated a distribution of biomes from the simulated plant functional type (PFT) coverage and climate parameters in the models. The UVic ESCM and the CCSM3 showed a slowdown of the AMOC accompanied by a seesaw temperature pattern between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt. The response of the tropical vegetation pattern around the Atlantic Ocean was more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. In tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were found only in CCSM3. In tropical Africa, the tree cover decreased and grass cover increased around 15°N in the UVic ESCM and around 10°N in CCSM3. Changes in tree and grass cover in tropical Southeast Asia were found only in the CCSM3 model, suggesting that the abrupt climate change during the HE1 also influenced remote tropical regions. Moreover, the biome distributions derived from both models corroborate findings from pollen records in southwestern and equatorial western Africa as well as northeastern Brazil.

Land Use and Land Cover Change in Guangzhou, China, from 1998 to 2003, Based on Landsat TM /ETM+ Imagery

PubMed Central

Fan, Fenglei; Weng, Qihao; Wang, Yunpeng

2007-01-01

Land use and land cover change is a major issue in global environment change, and is especially significant in rapidly developing regions in the world. With its economic development, population growth, and urbanization, Guangzhou, a major metropolitan in South China, have experienced a dramatic land use and land cover (LULC) change over the past 30 years. Fast LULC change have resulted in degradation of its ecosystems and affected adversely the environment. It is urgently needed to monitor its LULC changes and to analyses the consequences of these changes in order to provide information for policymakers to support sustainable development. This study employed two Landsat TM/ETM+ images in the dry season to detect LULC patterns in 1998 and 2003, and to examine LULC changes during the period from 1998 to 2003. The type, rate, and pattern of the changes among five counties of Guangzhou Municipality were analyzed in details by post-classification method. LULC conversion matrix was produced for each county in order to explore and explain the urban expansion and cropland loss, the most significant types of LULC change. Land use conversion matrixes of five counties were discussed respectively in order to explore and explain the inherence of land use change. The results showed that urban expansion in these five counties kept an even rate of increase, while substantial amount of cropland vanished during the period. It is also noted that the conversion between cropland and orchard land was intensive. Forest land became the main source of new croplands.

Land cover variation and West Nile virus prevalence: Patterns, processes, and implications for disease control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ezenwa, V.O.; Milheim, L.E.; Coffey, M.F.; Godsey, M.S.; King, R.J.; Guptill, S.C.

2007-01-01

Identifying links between environmental variables and infectious disease risk is essential to understanding how human-induced environmental changes will effect the dynamics of human and wildlife diseases. Although land cover change has often been tied to spatial variation in disease occurrence, the underlying factors driving the correlations are often unknown, limiting the applicability of these results for disease prevention and control. In this study, we described associations between land cover composition and West Nile virus (WNV) infection prevalence, and investigated three potential processes accounting for observed patterns: (1) variation in vector density; (2) variation in amplification host abundance; and (3) variation in host community composition. Interestingly, we found that WNV infection rates among Culex mosquitoes declined with increasing wetland cover, but wetland area was not significantly associated with either vector density or amplification host abundance. By contrast, wetland area was strongly correlated with host community composition, and model comparisons suggested that this factor accounted, at least partially, for the observed effect of wetland area on WNV infection risk. Our results suggest that preserving large wetland areas, and by extension, intact wetland bird communities, may represent a valuable ecosystem-based approach for controlling WNV outbreaks. ?? Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Reducing uncertainty in dust monitoring to detect aeolian sediment transport responses to land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, N.; Chappell, A.; Van Zee, J.; Toledo, D.; Duniway, M.; Billings, B.; Tedela, N.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) influence global rates of wind erosion and dust emission, yet our understanding of the magnitude of the responses remains poor. Field measurements and monitoring provide essential data to resolve aeolian sediment transport patterns and assess the impacts of human land use and management intensity. Data collected in the field are also required for dust model calibration and testing, as models have become the primary tool for assessing LULCC-dust cycle interactions. However, there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of dust emission due to the spatial variability of sediment transport. Field sampling designs are currently rudimentary and considerable opportunities are available to reduce the uncertainty. Establishing the minimum detectable change is critical for measuring spatial and temporal patterns of sediment transport, detecting potential impacts of LULCC and land management, and for quantifying the uncertainty of dust model estimates. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of common sampling designs (e.g., simple random sampling, systematic sampling) used to measure and monitor aeolian sediment transport rates. Using data from the US National Wind Erosion Research Network across diverse rangeland and cropland cover types, we demonstrate how only large changes in sediment mass flux (of the order 200% to 800%) can be detected when small sample sizes are used, crude sampling designs are implemented, or when the spatial variation is large. We then show how statistical rigour and the straightforward application of a sampling design can reduce the uncertainty and detect change in sediment transport over time and between land use and land cover types.

Development of deforestation and land cover database for Bhutan (1930-2014).

PubMed

Reddy, C Sudhakar; Satish, K V; Jha, C S; Diwakar, P G; Murthy, Y V N Krishna; Dadhwal, V K

2016-12-01

Bhutan is a mountainous country located in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. This study has quantified the total area under land cover types, estimated the rate of forest cover change, analyzed the changes across forest types, and modeled forest cover change hotpots in Bhutan. The topographical maps and satellite remote sensing images were analyzed to get the spatial patterns of forest and associated land cover changes over the past eight decades (1930-1977-1987-1995-2005-2014). Forest is the largest land cover in Bhutan and constitutes 68.3% of the total geographical area in 2014. Subtropical broad leaved hill forest is predominant type occupies 34.1% of forest area in Bhutan, followed by montane dry temperate (20.9%), montane wet temperate (18.9%), Himalayan moist temperate (10%), and tropical moist sal (8.1%) in 2014. The major forest cover loss is observed in subtropical broad leaved hill forest (64.5 km 2 ) and moist sal forest (9.9 km 2 ) from 1977 to 2014. The deforested areas have mainly been converted into agriculture and contributed for 60.9% of forest loss from 1930 to 2014. In spite of major decline of forest cover in time interval of 1930-1977, there is no net rate of deforestation is recorded in Bhutan since 1995. Forest cover change analysis has been carried out to evaluate the conservation effectiveness in "Protected Areas" of Bhutan. Hotspots that have undergone high transformation in forest cover for afforestation and deforestation were highlighted in the study for conservation prioritisation. Forest conservation policies in Bhutan are highly effective in controlling deforestation as compared to neighboring Asian countries and such service would help in mitigating climate change.

Spatio-temporal monitoring of vegetation phenology in the dry sub-humid region of Nigeria using time series of AVHRR NDVI and TAMSAT datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osunmadewa, Babatunde Adeniyi; Gebrehiwot, Worku Zewdie; Csaplovics, Elmar; Adeofun, Olabinjo Clement

2018-03-01

Time series data are of great importance for monitoring vegetation phenology in the dry sub-humid regions where change in land cover has influence on biomass productivity. However few studies have inquired into examining the impact of rainfall and land cover change on vegetation phenology. This study explores Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA) approach in order to investigate overall greenness, peak of annual greenness and timing of annual greenness in the seasonal NDVI cycle. Phenological pattern for the start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) was also examined across different land cover types in four selected locations. A significant increase in overall greenness (amplitude 0) and a significant decrease in other greenness trend maps (amplitude 1 and phase 1) was observed over the study period. Moreover significant positive trends in overall annual rainfall (amplitude 0) was found which follows similar pattern with vegetation trend. Variation in the timing of peak of greenness (phase 1) was seen in the four selected locations, this indicate a change in phenological trend. Additionally, strong relationship was revealed by the result of the pixel-wise regression between NDVI and rainfall. Change in vegetation phenology in the study area is attributed to climatic variability than anthropogenic activities.

EPA'S LANDSCAPE SCIENCES RESEARCH: NUTRIENT POLLUTION, FLOODING, AND HABITAT

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need to understand the pattern of landscape change at regional scales and to determine how such changes affect environmental values. Key to conducting these assessments is the development of land-cover databases that permit large-scale analyses, such as an exam...

Multiple Scale Landscape Pattern Index Interpretation for the Persistent Monitoring of Land-Cover and Land-Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spivey, Alvin J.

Mapping land-cover land-use change (LCLUC) over regional and continental scales, and long time scales (years and decades), can be accomplished using thematically identified classification maps of a landscape---a LCLU class map. Observations of a landscape's LCLU class map pattern can indicate the most relevant process, like hydrologic or ecologic function, causing landscape scale environmental change. Quantified as Landscape Pattern Metrics (LPM), emergent landscape patterns act as Landscape Indicators (LI) when physically interpreted. The common mathematical approach to quantifying observed landscape scale pattern is to have LPM measure how connected a class exists within the landscape, through nonlinear local kernel operations of edges and gradients in class maps. Commonly applied kernel-based LPM that consistently reveal causal processes are Dominance, Contagion, and Fractal Dimension. These kernel-based LPM can be difficult to interpret. The emphasis on an image pixel's edge by gradient operations and dependence on an image pixel's existence according to classification accuracy limit the interpretation of LPM. For example, the Dominance and Contagion kernel-based LPM very similarly measure how connected a landscape is. Because of this, their reported edge measurements of connected pattern correlate strongly, making their results ambiguous. Additionally, each of these kernel-based LPM are unscalable when comparing class maps from separate imaging system sensor scenarios that change the image pixel's edge position (i.e. changes in landscape extent, changes in pixel size, changes in orientation, etc), and can only interpret landscape pattern as accurately as the LCLU map classification will allow. This dissertation discusses the reliability of common LPM in light of imaging system effects such as: algorithm classification likelihoods, LCLU classification accuracy due to random image sensor noise, and image scale. A description of an approach to generating well behaved LPM through a Fourier system analysis of the entire class map, or any subset of the class map (e.g. the watershed) is the focus of this work. The Fourier approach provides four improvements for LPM. First, the approach reduces any correlation between metrics by developing them within an independent (i.e. orthogonal) Fourier vector space; a Fourier vector space that includes relevant physically representative parameters ( i.e. between class Euclidean distance). Second, accounting for LCLU classification accuracy the LPM measurement precision and measurement accuracy are reported. Third, the mathematics of this approach makes it possible to compare image data captured at separate pixel resolutions or even from separate landscape scenes. Fourth, Fourier interpreted landscape pattern measurement can be a measure of the entire landscape shape, of individual landscape cover change, or as exchanges between class map subsets by operating on the entire class map, subset of class map, or separate subsets of class map[s] respectively. These LCLUC LPM are examined along the 1991-1992 and 2000-2001 records of National Land Cover Database Landsat data products. Those LPM results are used in a predictive fecal coliform model at the South Carolina watershed level in the context of past (validation study) change. Finally, the proposed LPM ability to be used as ecologically relevant environmental indicators is tested by correlating metrics with other, well known LI that consistently reveal causal processes in the literature.

Influence of Projected Changes in North American Snow Cover Extent on Mid-Latitude Cyclone Progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clare, R. M.; Desai, A. R.; Martin, J. E.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.

2017-12-01

It has long been hypothesized that snow cover and snow extent have an influence on the development or steering of synoptic mid-latitude cyclones (MLCs). Rydzik and Desai (2014) showed a robust statistical relationship among snow cover extent, generation of low-level baroclinicity, and MLC tracks. Though snow cover extent is highly variable year to year, the changing global climate is expected to continue an already observed pattern of poleward retreat of mean snow cover in North America, particularly in late winter and spring. For this experiment, large ensemble simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) were forced with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to test the effect contributed solely by snow cover and the projected effects of a changing climate. Our experiment induces an adjustment to the extent of snow cover in North America according to CESM RCP 8.5 projections for each decade from 2020 to 2100 before and during several cases of MLCs moving east across the Great Plains near the snow line. To evaluate mechanisms of pre-existing and current snow influence on MLCs, model cases are started with snow line adjustment occurring from three days prior up to the storm's arrival over the Great Plains. We demonstrate that snow cover changes do alter MLC intensity and path via modification of low-level potential vorticity.

Crop cover the principal influence on non-crop ground beetle (Coleoptera, Carabidae) activity and assemblages at the farm scale in a long-term assessment.

PubMed

Eyre, M D; Sanderson, R A; McMillan, S D; Critchley, C N R

2016-04-01

Ground beetle data were generated using pitfall traps in the 17-year period from 1993 to 2009 and used to investigate the effects of changes in surrounding crop cover on beetle activity and assemblages, together with the effects of weather variability. Beetles were recorded from non-crop field margins (overgrown hedges). Crop cover changes explained far more variation in the beetle assemblages recorded than did temperature and rainfall variation. A reduction in management intensity and disturbance in the crops surrounding the traps, especially the introduction and development of willow coppice, was concomitant with changes in individual species activity and assemblage composition of beetles trapped in non-crop habitat. There were no consistent patterns in either overall beetle activity or in the number of species recorded over the 17-year period, but there was a clear change from assemblages dominated by smaller species with higher dispersal capability to ones with larger beetles with less dispersal potential and a preference for less disturbed agroecosystems. The influence of surrounding crops on ground beetle activity in non-crop habitat has implications for ecosystem service provision by ground beetles as pest predators. These results are contrary to conventional assumptions and interpretations, which suggest activity of pest predators in crops is influenced primarily by adjacent non-crop habitat. The long-term nature of the assessment was important in elucidation of patterns and trends, and indicated that policies such as agri-environment schemes should take cropping patterns into account when promoting management options that are intended to enhance natural pest control.

Intra- and interspecific variation in tropical tree and liana phenology derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohlman, S.; Park, J.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Rifai, S. W.; Dandois, J. P.

2017-12-01

Phenology is a critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical tree and liana phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. Spectral, texture, and image information was extracted from the UAV images for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm to predict percent leaf and branch cover. We obtained the species identities of 2000 crowns in the images via field mapping. The objectives of this study are to (1) determined if machine learning algorithms, applied to UAV images, can effectively quantify changes in leaf cover, which we term "deciduousness; (2) determine how liana cover effects deciduousness and (3) test how well UAV-derived deciduousness patterns match satellite-derived temporal patterns. Machine learning algorithms trained on a variety of image parameters could effectively determine leaf cover, despite variation in lighting and viewing angles. Crowns with higher liana cover have less overall deciduousness (tree + liana together) than crowns with lower liana cover. Individual crown deciduousness, summed over all crowns measured in the 50-ha plot, showed a similar seasonal pattern as MODIS EVI composited over 10 years. However, MODIS EVI phenology was "greened" up earlier than UAV-based deciduousness, perhaps reflecting the new late dry season leaf flush that increases EVI but not overall leaf cover. We discuss how the potential mechanisms that explain variation among species and between trees and lianas and the consequences for these variation for ecosystem processes and modeling.

Monitoring, analyzing and simulating of spatial-temporal changes of landscape pattern over mining area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Pei; Han, Ruimei; Wang, Shuangting

2014-11-01

According to the merits of remotely sensed data in depicting regional land cover and Land changes, multi- objective information processing is employed to remote sensing images to analyze and simulate land cover in mining areas. In this paper, multi-temporal remotely sensed data were selected to monitor the pattern, distri- bution and trend of LUCC and predict its impacts on ecological environment and human settlement in mining area. The monitor, analysis and simulation of LUCC in this coal mining areas are divided into five steps. The are information integration of optical and SAR data, LULC types extraction with SVM classifier, LULC trends simulation with CA Markov model, landscape temporal changes monitoring and analysis with confusion matrixes and landscape indices. The results demonstrate that the improved data fusion algorithm could make full use of information extracted from optical and SAR data; SVM classifier has an efficient and stable ability to obtain land cover maps, which could provide a good basis for both land cover change analysis and trend simulation; CA Markov model is able to predict LULC trends with good performance, and it is an effective way to integrate remotely sensed data with spatial-temporal model for analysis of land use / cover change and corresponding environmental impacts in mining area. Confusion matrixes are combined with landscape indices to evaluation and analysis show that, there was a sustained downward trend in agricultural land and bare land, but a continues growth trend tendency in water body, forest and other lands, and building area showing a wave like change, first increased and then decreased; mining landscape has undergone a from small to large and large to small process of fragmentation, agricultural land is the strongest influenced landscape type in this area, and human activities are the primary cause, so the problem should be pay more attentions by government and other organizations.

Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

2009-04-01

In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information that can serve as basis for further impact analysis. An exemplary simulation study with LandSHIFT is presented, based on scenario assumptions from the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 4. Time horizon of the analysis is the year 2050. Changes of future food production on country level are computed by the agro-economy model IMPACT as a function of demography, economic development and global trade pattern. Together with scenario assumptions on climatic change and population growth, this data serves as model input to compute the changing land-use und land-cover. The continental and global scale model results are then analysed with respect to changes in the spatial pattern of natural vegetation as well as the resulting effects on evapotranspiration processes and land surface parameters. Furthermore, possible linkages of LandSHIFT to the different components of Earth System models (e.g. climate and natural vegetation) are discussed.

Characterization of intra-annual reflectance properties of land cover classes in southeastern South Dakota using Landsat TM and ETM+ data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogelmann, James E.; DeFelice, Thomas P.

2003-01-01

Landsat-7 and Landsat-5 have orbits that are offset from each other by 8 days. During the time that the sensors on both satellites are operational, there is an opportunity for conducting analyses that incorporate multiple intra-annual high spatial resolution data sets for characterizing the Earth's land surface. In the current study, nine Landsat thematic mapper (TM) and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) data sets, covering the same path and row on different dates, were acquired during a 1-year time interval for a region in southeastern South Dakota and analyzed. Scenes were normalized using pseudoinvariant objects, and digital data from a series of test sites were extracted from the imagery and converted to surface reflectance. Sunphotometer data acquired on site were used to atmospherically correct the data. Ground observations that were made throughout the growing season by a large group of volunteers were used to help interpret spectroradiometric patterns and trends. Normalized images were found to be very effective in portraying the seasonal patterns of reflectance change that occurred throughout the region. Many of the radiometric patterns related to plant growth and development, but some also related to different background properties. The different kinds of land cover in the region were spectrally and radiometrically characterized and were found to have different seasonal patterns of reflectance. The degree to which the land cover classes could be separated spectrally and radiometrically, however, depended on the time of year during which the data sets were acquired, and no single data set appeared to be adequate for separating all types of land cover. This has practical implications for classification studies because known patterns of seasonal reflectance properties for the different types of land cover within a region will facilitate selection of the most appropriate data sets for producing land cover classifications.

The Urban Heat Island Impact in Consideration of Spatial Pattern of Urban Landscape and Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Sung, S.; Park, J.

2015-12-01

Preceding study has established a clear relationship between land surface temperature and area of land covers. However, only few studies have specifically examined the effects of spatial patterns of land covers and urban structure. To examine how much the local climate is affected by the spatial pattern in highly urbanized city, we investigated the correlation between land surface temperature and spatial patterns of land covers. In the analysis of correlation, we categorized urban structure to four different land uses: Apartment residential area, low rise residential area, industrial area and central business district. Through this study, we aims to examine the types of residential structure and land cover pattern for reducing urban heat island and sustainable development. Based on land surface temperature, we investigated the phenomenon of urban heat island through using the data of remote sensing. This study focused on Daegu in Korea. This city, one of the hottest city in Korea has basin form. We used high-resolution land cover data and land surface temperature by using Landsat8 satellite image to examine 100 randomly selected sample sites of 884.15km2 (1)In each land use, we quantified several landscape-levels and class-level landscape metrics for the sample study sites. (2)In addition, we measured the land surface temperature in 3 year hot summer seasons (July to September). Then, we investigated the pattern of land surface temperature for each land use through Ecognition package. (3)We deducted the Pearson correlation coefficients between land surface temperature and each landscape metrics. (4)We analyzed the variance among the four land uses. (5)Using linear regression, we determined land surface temperature model for each land use. (6)Through this analysis, we aims to examine the best pattern of land cover and artificial structure for reducing urban heat island effect in highly urbanized city. The results of linear regression showed that proportional land cover of grass, tree, water and impervious surfaces well explained the temperature in apartment residential areas. In contrast, the changes in the pattern of water, grass, tree and impervious surfaces were the best to determine the temperature in low rise residential area, central business district and industrial area.

Observed contrast changes in snow cover phenology in northern middle and high latitudes from 2001–2014

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaona; Liang, Shunlin; Cao, Yunfeng; He, Tao; Wang, Dongdong

2015-01-01

Quantifying and attributing the phenological changes in snow cover are essential for meteorological, hydrological, ecological, and societal implications. However, snow cover phenology changes have not been well documented. Evidence from multiple satellite and reanalysis data from 2001 to 2014 points out that the snow end date (De) advanced by 5.11 (±2.20) days in northern high latitudes (52–75°N) and was delayed by 3.28 (±2.59) days in northern mid-latitudes (32–52°N) at the 90% confidence level. Dominated by changes in De, snow duration days (Dd) was shorter in duration by 5.57 (±2.55) days in high latitudes and longer by 9.74 (±2.58) days in mid-latitudes. Changes in De during the spring season were consistent with the spatiotemporal pattern of land surface albedo change. Decreased land surface temperature combined with increased precipitation in mid-latitudes and significantly increased land surface temperature in high latitudes, impacted by recent Pacific surface cooling, Arctic amplification and strengthening westerlies, result in contrasting changes in the Northern Hemisphere snow cover phenology. Changes in the snow cover phenology led to contrasting anomalies of snow radiative forcing, which is dominated by De and accounts for 51% of the total shortwave flux anomalies at the top of the atmosphere. PMID:26581632

Ten Years of Forest Cover Change in the Sierra Nevada Detected Using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

A detailed geographic record of recent vegetation regrowth and disturbance patterns in forests of the Sierra Nevada remains a gap that can be filled with remote sensing data. Landsat (TM) imagery was analyzed to detect 10 years of recent changes (between 2000 and 2009) in forest vegetation cover for areas burned by wildfires between years of 1995 to 1999 in the region. Results confirmed the prevalence of regrowing forest vegetation during the period 2000 and 2009 over 17% of the combined burned areas.

Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-09-01

Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

Habitat selection by a focal predator (Canis lupus) in a multiprey ecosystem of the northern Rockies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milakovic, B.; Parker, K.L.; Gustine, D.D.; Lay, R.J.; Walker, A.B.D.; Gillingham, M.P.

2011-01-01

Large predators respond to land cover and physiography that maximize the likelihood of encountering prey. Using locations from global positioning system-collared wolves (Canis lupus), we examined whether land cover, vegetation productivity or change, or habitat-selection value for ungulate prey species themselves most influenced patterns of selection by wolves in a large, intact multiprey system of northern British Columbia. Selection models based on land cover, in combination with topographical features, consistently outperformed models based on indexes of vegetation quantity and quality (using normalized difference vegetation index) or on selection value to prey species (moose [Alces americanus], elk [Cervus elaphus], woodland caribou [Rangifer tarandus], and Stone's sheep [Ovis dalli stonei]). Wolves generally selected for shrub communities and high diversity of cover across seasons and avoided conifer stands and non-vegetated areas and west aspects year-round. Seasonal selection strategies were not always reflected in use patterns, which showed highest frequency of use in riparian, shrub, and conifer classes. Patterns of use and selection for individual wolf packs did not always conform to global models, and appeared related to the distribution of land cover and terrain within respective home ranges. Our findings corroborate the biological linkages between wolves and their habitat related to ease of movement and potential prey associations. ?? American 2011 Society of Mammalogists.

Global pattern for the effect of climate and land cover on water yield

Treesearch

Guoy Zhou; Xiaohua Wei; Xiuzhi Chen; Ping Zhou; Xiaodong Liu; Yin Xiao; Ge Sun; David F. Scott; Shuyidan Zhou; Liusheng Hano; Yongxian Su

2015-01-01

Research results on the effects of land cover change on water resources vary greatly and the topic remains controversial. Here we use published data worldwide to examine the validity of Fuh’s equation, which relates annual water yield (R) to a wetness index (precipitation/ potential evapotranspiration; P/PET) and watershed characteristics (m). We identify two critical...

Alaska North Shore Ocean Acoustics Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

effects of changing ice cover, wind patterns and circulation/upwelling on underwater sound propagation and ambient noise in the areas of continental ...noise field along the edge of Arctic continental shelf. Underwater sound propagation in Arctic oceans with ice cover is influenced by the elastic...von der Heydt has been implmenting the following system upgrades: 1. Replacing the existing Seascan timebase ( drift 2 to 3ms/day) with a

Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, Sophie; Kleiner, Kevin J.; Choquet, Remi; Collazo, Jaime; Nichols, James D.

2012-01-01

Land cover data are widely used in ecology as land cover change is a major component of changes affecting ecological systems. Landscape change estimates are characterized by classification errors. Researchers have used error matrices to adjust estimates of areal extent, but estimation of land cover change is more difficult and more challenging, with error in classification being confused with change. We modeled land cover dynamics for a discrete set of habitat states. The approach accounts for state uncertainty to produce unbiased estimates of habitat transition probabilities using ground information to inform error rates. We consider the case when true and observed habitat states are available for the same geographic unit (pixel) and when true and observed states are obtained at one level of resolution, but transition probabilities estimated at a different level of resolution (aggregations of pixels). Simulation results showed a strong bias when estimating transition probabilities if misclassification was not accounted for. Scaling-up does not necessarily decrease the bias and can even increase it. Analyses of land cover data in the Southeast region of the USA showed that land change patterns appeared distorted if misclassification was not accounted for: rate of habitat turnover was artificially increased and habitat composition appeared more homogeneous. Not properly accounting for land cover misclassification can produce misleading inferences about habitat state and dynamics and also misleading predictions about species distributions based on habitat. Our models that explicitly account for state uncertainty should be useful in obtaining more accurate inferences about change from data that include errors.

Nutrient addition shifts plant community composition towards earlier flowering species in some prairie ecoregions in the U.S. Central Plains.

PubMed

Biederman, Lori; Mortensen, Brent; Fay, Philip; Hagenah, Nicole; Knops, Johannes; La Pierre, Kimberly; Laungani, Ramesh; Lind, Eric; McCulley, Rebecca; Power, Sally; Seabloom, Eric; Tognetti, Pedro

2017-01-01

The distribution of flowering across the growing season is governed by each species' evolutionary history and climatic variability. However, global change factors, such as eutrophication and invasion, can alter plant community composition and thus change the distribution of flowering across the growing season. We examined three ecoregions (tall-, mixed, and short-grass prairie) across the U.S. Central Plains to determine how nutrient (nitrogen (N), phosphorus, and potassium (+micronutrient)) addition alters the temporal patterns of plant flowering traits. We calculated total community flowering potential (FP) by distributing peak-season plant cover values across the growing season, allocating each species' cover to only those months in which it typically flowers. We also generated separate FP profiles for exotic and native species and functional group. We compared the ability of the added nutrients to shift the distribution of these FP profiles (total and sub-groups) across the growing season. In all ecoregions, N increased the relative cover of both exotic species and C3 graminoids that flower in May through August. The cover of C4 graminoids decreased with added N, but the response varied by ecoregion and month. However, these functional changes only aggregated to shift the entire community's FP profile in the tall-grass prairie, where the relative cover of plants expected to flower in May and June increased and those that flower in September and October decreased with added N. The relatively low native cover in May and June may leave this ecoregion vulnerable to disturbance-induced invasion by exotic species that occupy this temporal niche. There was no change in the FP profile of the mixed and short-grass prairies with N addition as increased abundance of exotic species and C3 graminoids replaced other species that flower at the same time. In these communities a disturbance other than nutrient addition may be required to disrupt phenological patterns.

Nutrient addition shifts plant community composition towards earlier flowering species in some prairie ecoregions in the U.S. Central Plains

PubMed Central

Mortensen, Brent; Fay, Philip; Hagenah, Nicole; Knops, Johannes; La Pierre, Kimberly; Laungani, Ramesh; Lind, Eric; McCulley, Rebecca; Power, Sally; Seabloom, Eric; Tognetti, Pedro

2017-01-01

The distribution of flowering across the growing season is governed by each species’ evolutionary history and climatic variability. However, global change factors, such as eutrophication and invasion, can alter plant community composition and thus change the distribution of flowering across the growing season. We examined three ecoregions (tall-, mixed, and short-grass prairie) across the U.S. Central Plains to determine how nutrient (nitrogen (N), phosphorus, and potassium (+micronutrient)) addition alters the temporal patterns of plant flowering traits. We calculated total community flowering potential (FP) by distributing peak-season plant cover values across the growing season, allocating each species’ cover to only those months in which it typically flowers. We also generated separate FP profiles for exotic and native species and functional group. We compared the ability of the added nutrients to shift the distribution of these FP profiles (total and sub-groups) across the growing season. In all ecoregions, N increased the relative cover of both exotic species and C3 graminoids that flower in May through August. The cover of C4 graminoids decreased with added N, but the response varied by ecoregion and month. However, these functional changes only aggregated to shift the entire community’s FP profile in the tall-grass prairie, where the relative cover of plants expected to flower in May and June increased and those that flower in September and October decreased with added N. The relatively low native cover in May and June may leave this ecoregion vulnerable to disturbance-induced invasion by exotic species that occupy this temporal niche. There was no change in the FP profile of the mixed and short-grass prairies with N addition as increased abundance of exotic species and C3 graminoids replaced other species that flower at the same time. In these communities a disturbance other than nutrient addition may be required to disrupt phenological patterns. PMID:28552986

Monitoring urban growth and detection of land use with GIS and remote sensing: a case study of the Kyrenia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, Can; Akçit, Nuhcan

2016-08-01

Land-cover change is considered one of the central components in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes. It is important to manage land resources in a sustainable manner which targets at compacting and consolidating urban development. From 2005 to 2015,urban growth in Kyrenia has been quite dramatic, showing a wide and scattered pattern, lacking proper plan. As a result of this unplanned/unorganized expansion, agricultural areas, vegetation and water bodies have been lost in the region. Therefore, it has become a necessity to analyze the results of this urban growth and compare the losses between land-cover changes. With this goal in mind, a case study of Kyrenia region has been carried out using a supervised image classification method and Landsat TM images acquired in 2005 and 2015 to map and extract land-cover changes. This paper tries to assess urban-growth changes detected in the region by using Remote Sensing and GIS. The study monitors the changes between different land cover types. Also, it shows the urban occupation of primary soil loss and the losses in forest areas, open areas, etc.

Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

2016-04-01

Accurate and spatially explicit landscape reconstructions for distinct time periods in human history are essential for the quantification of the effect of anthropogenic land cover changes on, e.g., global biogeochemical cycles, ecology, and geomorphic processes, and to improve our understanding of interaction between humans and the environment in general. A long-term perspective covering Mid and Late Holocene land use changes is recommended in this context, as it provides a baseline to evaluate human impact in more recent periods. Previous efforts to assess the evolution and intensity of agricultural land cover in past centuries or millennia have predominantly focused on palynological records. An increasing number of quantitative techniques has been developed during the last two decades to transfer palynological data to land cover estimates. However, these techniques have to deal with equifinality issues and, furthermore, do not sufficiently allow to reconstruct spatial patterns of past land cover. On the other hand, several continental and global databases of historical anthropogenic land cover changes based on estimates of global population and the required agricultural land per capita have been developed in the past decennium. However, at such long temporal and spatial scales, reconstruction of past anthropogenic land cover intensities and spatial patterns necessarily involves many uncertainties and assumptions as well. Here, we present a novel approach that combines archaeological, palynological and geomorphological data for the Dijle catchment in the central Belgium Loess Belt in order to arrive at more realistic Holocene land cover histories. Multiple land cover scenarios (> 60.000) are constructed using probabilistic rules and used as input into a sediment delivery model (WaTEM/SEDEM). Model outcomes are confronted with a detailed geomorphic dataset on Holocene sediment fluxes and with REVEALS based estimates of vegetation cover using palynological data from six alluvial sites. This comparison drastically reduces the number of realistic land cover scenarios for various cultural periods. REVEALS based land cover histories provide more accurate estimates of Holocene sediment fluxes compared to global land cover scenarios (KK10 and HYDE 3.1). Both global land cover scenarios produce erroneous results when applied at their original coarse scale resolution. However, spatially allocating KK10 land cover data to a finer spatial resolution increases its performance, whereas this is not the case for HYDE 3.1. Results suggest that KK10 also offers a more realistic history of human impact than HYDE 3.1 although it overestimates human impact in the Belgian Loess Belt prior to the Roman Age, whereas it underestimates human impact from the Medieval Period onwards.

Historical and contemporary geographic data reveal complex spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to climate and land stewardship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel L.; Norman, Laura M.; Webb, Robert H.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Vegetation and land-cover changes are not always directional but follow complex trajectories over space and time, driven by changing anthropogenic and abiotic conditions. We present a multi-observational approach to land-change analysis that addresses the complex geographic and temporal variability of vegetation changes related to climate and land use. Using land-ownership data as a proxy for land-use practices, multitemporal land-cover maps, and repeat photography dating to the late 19th century, we examine changing spatial and temporal distributions of two vegetation types with high conservation value in the southwestern United States: grasslands and riparian vegetation. In contrast to many reported vegetation changes, notably shrub encroachment in desert grasslands, we found an overall increase in grassland area and decline of xeroriparian and riparian vegetation. These observed change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Historical data suggest that long-term vegetation changes coincide with broad climate fluctuations while fine-scale patterns are determined by land-management practices. In some cases, restoration and active management appear to weaken the effects of climate on vegetation; therefore, if land managers in this region act in accord with on-going directional changes, the current drought and associated ecological reorganization may provide an opportunity to achieve desired restoration endpoints.

Compact Reconfigurable Antenna with an Omnidirectional Pattern and Four Directional Patterns for Wireless Sensor Systems.

PubMed

Wang, Ren; Wang, Bing-Zhong; Huang, Wei-Ying; Ding, Xiao

2016-04-16

A compact reconfigurable antenna with an omnidirectional mode and four directional modes is proposed. The antenna has a main radiator and four parasitic elements printed on a dielectric substrate. By changing the status of diodes soldered on the parasitic elements, the proposed antenna can generate four directional radiation patterns and one omnidirectional radiation pattern. The main beam directions of the four directional modes are almost orthogonal and the four directional beams can jointly cover a 360° range in the horizontal plane, i.e., the main radiation plane of omnidirectional mode. The whole volume of the antenna and the control network is approximately 0.70 λ × 0.53 λ × 0.02 λ, where λ is the wavelength corresponding to the center frequency. The proposed antenna has a simple structure and small dimensions under the requirement that the directional radiation patterns can jointly cover the main radiation plane of the omnidirectional mode, therefore, it can be used in smart wireless sensor systems for different application scenarios.

Process-Driven Ecological Modeling for Landscape Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altman, S.; Reif, M. K.; Swannack, T. M.

2013-12-01

Landscape pattern is an important driver in ecosystem dynamics and can control system-level functions such as nutrient cycling, connectivity, biodiversity and carbon sequestration. However, the links between process, pattern and function remain ambiguous. Understanding the quantitative relationship between ecological processes and landscape pattern across temporal and spatial scales is vital for successful management and implementation of ecosystem-level projects. We used remote sensing imagery to develop critical landscape metrics to understand the factors influencing landscape change. Our study area, a coastal area in southwest Florida, is highly dynamic with critically eroding beaches and a range of natural and developed land cover types. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 caused a breach along the coast of North Captiva Island that filled in by 2010. We used a time series of light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data and hyperspectral imagery from 2006 and 2010 to determine land cover changes. Landscape level metrics used included: Largest Patch Index, Class Area, Area-weighted mean area, Clumpiness, Area-weighted Contiguity Index, Number of Patches, Percent of landcover, Area-weighted Shape. Our results showed 1) 27% increase in sand/soil class as the channel repaired itself and shoreline was reestablished, 2) 40% decrease in the mudflat class area due to conversion to sand/soil and water, 3) 30% increase in non-wetland vegetation class as a result of new vegetation around the repaired channel, and 4) the water class only slightly increased though there was a marked increase in the patch size area. Thus, the smaller channels disappeared with the infilling of the channel, leaving much larger, less complex patches behind the breach. Our analysis demonstrated that quantification of landscape pattern is critical to linking patterns to ecological processes and understanding how both affect landscape change. Our proof of concept indicated that ecological processes can correlate to landscape pattern and that ecosystem function changes significantly as pattern changes. However, the number of links between landscape metrics and ecological processes are highly variable. Extensively studied processes such as biodiversity can be linked to numerous landscape metrics. In contrast, correlations between sediment cycling and landscape pattern have only been evaluated for a limited number of metrics. We are incorporating these data into a relational database linking landscape and ecological patterns, processes and metrics. The database will be used to parameterize site-specific landscape evolution models projecting how landscape pattern will change as a result of future ecosystem restoration projects. The model is a spatially-explicit, grid-based model that projects changes in community composition based on changes in soil elevations. To capture scalar differences in landscape change, local and regional landscape metrics are analyzed at each time step and correlated with ecological processes to determine how ecosystem function changes with scale over time.

"Land-Cover Conversion in Amazonia, The Role of ENV" Ironment and Substrate composition in Modifying SOI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Dar A.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Batista, Getulio T.

2003-01-01

LBA research from the first phase of LBA focused on three broad categories: 1) mapping land cover and quantifying rates of change, persistence of pasture, and area of recovering forest; 2) evaluating the role of environmental factors and land-use history on soil biogeochemistry; and 3) quantifying the natural and human controls on stream nutrient concentrations. The focus of the research was regional, concentrating primarily in the state of RondBnia, but also included land-cover mapping in the vicinity of Maraba, Para, and Manaus, Amazonas. Remote sensing analysis utilized Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Multispectral Scanner (MS S) data to map historical patterns of land-cover change. Specific questions addressed by the remote sensing component of the research included: 1) what is the areal extent of dominant land-cover classes? 2) what are the rates of change of dominant land cover through processes of deforestation, disturbance and regeneration? and 3) what are the dynamic properties of each class that characterize temporal variability, duration, and frequency of repeat disturbance? Biogeochemical analysis focused on natural variability and impacts of land-use/land-cover changes on soil and stream biogeochemical properties at the regional scale. An emphasis was given to specific soil properties considered to be primary limiting factors regionally, including phosphorus, nitrogen, base cations and cation-exchange properties. Stream sampling emphasized the relative effects of the rates and timing of land-cover change on stream nutrients, demonstrating that vegetation conversion alone does not impact nutrients as much as subsequent land use and urbanization.

The Land Cover Dynamics and Conversion of Agricultural Land in Northwestern Bangladesh, 1973-2003.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pervez, M.; Seelan, S. K.; Rundquist, B. C.

2006-05-01

The importance of land cover information describing the nature and extent of land resources and changes over time is increasing; this is especially true in Bangladesh, where land cover is changing rapidly. This paper presents research into the land cover dynamics of northwestern Bangladesh for the period 1973-2003 using Landsat satellite images in combination with field survey data collected in January and February 2005. Land cover maps were produced for eight different years during the study period with an average 73 percent overall classification accuracy. The classification results and post-classification change analysis showed that agriculture is the dominant land cover (occupying 74.5 percent of the study area) and is being reduced at a rate of about 3,000 ha per year. In addition, 6.7 percent of the agricultural land is vulnerable to temporary water logging annually. Despite this loss of agricultural land, irrigated agriculture increased substantially until 2000, but has since declined because of diminishing water availability and uncontrolled extraction of groundwater driven by population pressures and the extended need for food. A good agreement (r = 0.73) was found between increases in irrigated land and the depletion of the shallow groundwater table, a factor affecting widely practiced small-scale irrigation in northwestern Bangladesh. Results quantified the land cover change patterns and the stresses placed on natural resources; additionally, they demonstrated an accurate and economical means to map and analyze changes in land cover over time at a regional scale, which can assist decision makers in land and natural resources management decisions.

Effects of rainfall patterns and land cover on the subsurface flow generation of sloping Ferralsols in southern China

PubMed Central

Yang, Jie; Tang, Chongjun; Chen, Lihua; Liu, Yaojun; Wang, Lingyun

2017-01-01

Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land) in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface flows associated with bare land. PMID:28792507

Early-warning signals for catastrophic soil degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karssenberg, Derek

2010-05-01

Many earth systems have critical thresholds at which the system shifts abruptly from one state to another. Such critical transitions have been described, among others, for climate, vegetation, animal populations, and geomorphology. Predicting the timing of critical transitions before they are reached is of importance because of the large impact on nature and society associated with the transition. However, it is notably difficult to predict the timing of a transition. This is because the state variables of the system show little change before the threshold is reached. As a result, the precision of field observations is often too low to provide predictions of the timing of a transition. A possible solution is the use of spatio-temporal patterns in state variables as leading indicators of a transition. It is becoming clear that the critically slowing down of a system causes spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance to increase before the transition. Thus, spatio-temporal patterns are important candidates for early-warning signals. In this research we will show that these early-warning signals also exist in geomorphological systems. We consider a modelled vegetation-soil system under a gradually increasing grazing pressure causing an abrupt shift towards extensive soil degradation. It is shown that changes in spatio-temporal patterns occur well ahead of this catastrophic transition. A distributed model describing the coupled processes of vegetation growth and geomorphological denudation is adapted. The model uses well-studied simple process representations for vegetation and geomorphology. A logistic growth model calculates vegetation cover as a function of grazing pressure and vegetation growth rate. Evolution of the soil thickness is modelled by soil creep and wash processes, as a function of net rain reaching the surface. The vegetation and soil system are coupled by 1) decreasing vegetation growth with decreasing soil thickness and 2) increasing soil wash with decreasing vegetation cover. The model describes a critical, catastrophic transition of an underexploited system with low grazing pressure towards an overexploited system. The underexploited state has high vegetation cover and well developed soils, while the overexploited state has low vegetation cover and largely degraded soils. We first show why spatio-temporal patterns in vegetation cover, morphology, erosion rate, and sediment load should be expected to change well before the critical transition towards the overexploited state. Subsequently, spatio-temporal patterns are quantified by calculating statistics, in particular first order statistics and autocorrelation in space and time. It is shown that these statistics gradually change before the transition is reached. This indicates that the statistics may serve as early-warning signals in real-world applications. We also discuss the potential use of remote sensing to predict the critical transition in real-world landscapes.

Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

The Application of Remote Sensing Data to GIS Studies of Land Use, Land Cover, and Vegetation Mapping in the State of Hawaii

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hogan, Christine A.

1996-01-01

A land cover-vegetation map with a base classification system for remote sensing use in a tropical island environment was produced of the island of Hawaii for the State of Hawaii to evaluate whether or not useful land cover information can be derived from Landsat TM data. In addition, an island-wide change detection mosaic combining a previously created 1977 MSS land classification with the TM-based classification was produced. In order to reach the goal of transferring remote sensing technology to State of Hawaii personnel, a pilot project was conducted while training State of Hawaii personnel in remote sensing technology and classification systems. Spectral characteristics of young island land cover types were compared to determine if there are differences in vegetation types on lava, vegetation types on soils, and barren lava from soils, and if they can be detected remotely, based on differences in pigments detecting plant physiognomic type, health, stress at senescence, heat, moisture level, and biomass. Geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) were used to assist in image rectification and classification. GIS was also used to produce large-format color output maps. An interactive GIS program was written to provide on-line access to scanned photos taken at field sites. The pilot project found Landsat TM to be a credible source of land cover information for geologically young islands, and TM data bands are effective in detecting spectral characteristics of different land cover types through remote sensing. Large agriculture field patterns were resolved and mapped successfully from wildland vegetation, but small agriculture field patterns were not. Additional processing was required to work with the four TM scenes from two separate orbits which span three years, including El Nino and drought dates. Results of the project emphasized the need for further land cover and land use processing and research. Change in vegetation composition was noted in the change detection image.

Changes in canopy cover alter surface air and forest floor temperature in a high-elevation red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) forest

Treesearch

Johnny L. Boggs; Steven G. McNulty

2010-01-01

The objective of this study is to describe winter and summer surface air and forest floor temperature patterns and diurnal fluctuations in high-elevation red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) forests with different levels of canopy cover. In 1988, a series of 10- x 10-meter plots (control, low nitrogen [N] addition, and high nitrogen addition) were...

Beyond Impervious: Urban Land-Cover Pattern Variation and Implications for Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Scott M.; McHale, Melissa R.; Hess, George R.

2016-07-01

Impervious surfaces degrade urban water quality, but their over-coverage has not explained the persistent water quality variation observed among catchments with similar rates of imperviousness. Land-cover patterns likely explain much of this variation, although little is known about how they vary among watersheds. Our goal was to analyze a series of urban catchments within a range of impervious cover to evaluate how land-cover varies among them. We then highlight examples from the literature to explore the potential effects of land-cover pattern variability for urban watershed management. High-resolution (1 m2) land-cover data were used to quantify 23 land-cover pattern and stormwater infrastructure metrics within 32 catchments across the Triangle Region of North Carolina. These metrics were used to analyze variability in land-cover patterns among the study catchments. We used hierarchical clustering to organize the catchments into four groups, each with a distinct landscape pattern. Among these groups, the connectivity of combined land-cover patches accounted for 40 %, and the size and shape of lawns and buildings accounted for 20 %, of the overall variation in land-cover patterns among catchments. Storm water infrastructure metrics accounted for 8 % of the remaining variation. Our analysis demonstrates that land-cover patterns do vary among urban catchments, and that trees and grass (lawns) are divergent cover types in urban systems. The complex interactions among land-covers have several direct implications for the ongoing management of urban watersheds.

An investigation on thermal patterns in Iran based on spatial autocorrelation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah Ghalhari, Gholamabbas; Dadashi Roudbari, Abbasali

2018-02-01

The present study aimed at investigating temporal-spatial patterns and monthly patterns of temperature in Iran using new spatial statistical methods such as cluster and outlier analysis, and hotspot analysis. To do so, climatic parameters, monthly average temperature of 122 synoptic stations, were assessed. Statistical analysis showed that January with 120.75% had the most fluctuation among the studied months. Global Moran's Index revealed that yearly changes of temperature in Iran followed a strong spatially clustered pattern. Findings showed that the biggest thermal cluster pattern in Iran, 0.975388, occurred in May. Cluster and outlier analyses showed that thermal homogeneity in Iran decreases in cold months, while it increases in warm months. This is due to the radiation angle and synoptic systems which strongly influence thermal order in Iran. The elevations, however, have the most notable part proved by Geographically weighted regression model. Iran's thermal analysis through hotspot showed that hot thermal patterns (very hot, hot, and semi-hot) were dominant in the South, covering an area of 33.5% (about 552,145.3 km2). Regions such as mountain foot and low lands lack any significant spatial autocorrelation, 25.2% covering about 415,345.1 km2. The last is the cold thermal area (very cold, cold, and semi-cold) with about 25.2% covering about 552,145.3 km2 of the whole area of Iran.

Proximate environmental drivers of coral communities at Palmyra Atoll: establishing baselines prior to removing a WWII military causeway.

PubMed

Williams, Gareth J; Knapp, Ingrid S; Maragos, James E; Davy, Simon K

2011-08-01

A management proposal aims to partly remove a WWII military causeway at Palmyra Atoll to improve lagoon water circulation and alleviate sedimentation stress on the southeast backreef, an area of high coral cover and diversity. This action could result in a shift in sedimentation across reef sites. To provide management advice, we quantified the proximate environmental factors driving scleractinian coral cover and community patterns at Palmyra. The proportion of fine sedimentation was the optimal predictor of coral cover and changes in community structure, explaining 23.7% and 24.7% of the variation between sites, respectively. Scleractinian coral cover was negatively correlated with increases in fine sedimentation. Removing the causeway could negatively affect the Montipora corals that dominate the western reef terrace, as this genus was negatively correlated with levels of fine sedimentation. The tolerance limits of corals, and sediment re-distribution patterns, should be determined prior to complete removal of the causeway. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal land-cover regions of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas R.; Merchant, James W.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Ohlen, Donald O.; Reed, Bradley C.; Olson, Paul; Hutchinson, John

1995-01-01

Global-change investigations have been hindered by deficiencies in the availability and quality of land-cover data. The U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln have collaborated on the development of a new approach to land-cover characterization that attempts to address requirements of the global-change research community and others interested in regional patterns of land cover. An experimental 1 -kilometer-resolution database of land-cover characteristics for the coterminous U.S. has been prepared to test and evaluate the approach. Using multidate Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data complemented by elevation, climate, ecoregions, and other digital spatial datasets, the authors define 152, seasonal land-cover regions. The regionalization is based on a taxonomy of areas with respect to data on land cover, seasonality or phenology, and relative levels of primary production. The resulting database consists of descriptions of the vegetation, land cover, and seasonal, spectral, and site characteristics for each region. These data are used in the construction of an illustrative 1:7,500,000-scaIe map of the seasonal land-cover regions as well as of smaller-scale maps portraying general land cover and seasonality. The seasonal land-cover characteristics database can also be tailored to provide a broad range of other landscape parameters useful in national and global-scale environmental modeling and assessment.

A long-term Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent product (JASMES) deriving from satellite-borne optical sensors using consistent objective criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, M.; Sugiura, K.; Kobayashi, K.; Aoki, T.; Tanikawa, T.; Niwano, M.; Enomoto, H.

2017-12-01

A long-term Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) product (JASMES SCE) was developed from the application of a consistent objective snow cover mapping algorithm to satellite-borne optical sensors (NOAA/AVHRR and NASA's optical sensor MODIS) from 1982 to the present. We estimated NH SCE from weekly composited snow cover maps and evaluated the accuracies of snow cover detection using in-situ snow data. As benchmark SCE product, we also evaluated the accuracy of SCE maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Data Record (NOAA-CDR) product. The evaluation showed that JASMES SCE has more temporally stable accuracies. Seasonally averaged SCE derived from JASMES exhibited negative slopes in all seasons which is opposite to those of NOAA-CDR SCE in the fall and winter seasons. The spatial pattern of annual snow cover duration (SCD) trends exhibited noticeable asymmetric pattern between continents with the largest negative trends seen over western Eurasia. The NH SCE product will be connected to the data of the Japanese Earth Observing satellite named "Global Change Observation Mission for Climate (GCOM-C)" to be launched in late 2017.

Community size and composition of ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers in an alluvial intertidal wetland ecosystem

PubMed Central

Hu, Ziye; Meng, Han; Shi, Jin-Huan; Bu, Nai-Shun; Fang, Chang-Ming; Quan, Zhe-Xue

2014-01-01

Global nitrogen cycling is mainly mediated by the activity of microorganisms. Nitrogen cycle processes are mediated by functional groups of microorganisms that are affected by constantly changing environmental conditions and substrate availability. In this study, we investigated the temporal and spatial patterns of nitrifier and denitrifier communities in an intertidal wetland. Soil samples were collected over four distinct seasons from three locations with different vegetative cover. Multiple environmental factors and process rates were measured and analyzed together with the community size and composition profiles. We observed that the community size and composition of the nitrifiers and denitrifiers are affected significantly by seasonal factors, while vegetative cover affected the community composition. The seasonal impacts on the community size of ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA) are much higher than that of ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB). The seasonal change was a more important indicator for AOA community composition patterns, while vegetation was more important for the AOB community patterns. The microbial process rates were correlated with both the community size and composition. PMID:25101072

From Forest Landscape to Agricultural Landscape in the Developing Tropical Country of Malaysia: Pattern, Process, and Their Significance on Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Saiful Arif; Hezri, Adnan A.

2008-11-01

Agricultural expansion and deforestation are spatial processes of land transformation that impact on landscape pattern. In peninsular Malaysia, the conversion of forested areas into two major cash crops—rubber and oil palm plantations—has been identified as driving significant environmental change. To date, there has been insufficient literature studying the link between changes in landscape patterns and land-related development policies. Therefore, this paper examines: (i) the links between development policies and changes in land use/land cover and landscape pattern and (ii) the significance and implications of these links for future development policies. The objective is to generate insights on the changing process of land use/land cover and landscape pattern as a functional response to development policies and their consequences for environmental conditions. Over the last century, the development of cash crops has changed the country from one dominated by natural landscapes to one dominated by agricultural landscapes. But the last decade of the century saw urbanization beginning to impact significantly. This process aligned with the establishment of various development policies, from land development for agriculture between the mid 1950s and the 1970s to an emphasis on manufacturing from the 1980s onward. Based on a case study in Selangor, peninsular Malaysia, a model of landscape pattern change is presented. It contains three stages according to the relative importance of rubber (first stage: 1900-1950s), oil palm (second stage: 1960s-1970s), and urban (third stage: 1980s-1990s) development that influenced landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity. The environmental consequences of this change have been depicted through loss of biodiversity, geohazard incidences, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. The spatial ecological information can be useful to development policy formulation, allowing diagnosis of the country’s “health” and sustainability. The final section outlines the usefulness of landscape analysis in the policy-making process to prevent further fragmentation of the landscape and forest loss in Malaysia in the face of rapid economic development.

From forest landscape to agricultural landscape in the developing tropical country of Malaysia: pattern, process, and their significance on policy.

PubMed

Abdullah, Saiful Arif; Hezri, Adnan A

2008-11-01

Agricultural expansion and deforestation are spatial processes of land transformation that impact on landscape pattern. In peninsular Malaysia, the conversion of forested areas into two major cash crops--rubber and oil palm plantations--has been identified as driving significant environmental change. To date, there has been insufficient literature studying the link between changes in landscape patterns and land-related development policies. Therefore, this paper examines: (i) the links between development policies and changes in land use/land cover and landscape pattern and (ii) the significance and implications of these links for future development policies. The objective is to generate insights on the changing process of land use/land cover and landscape pattern as a functional response to development policies and their consequences for environmental conditions. Over the last century, the development of cash crops has changed the country from one dominated by natural landscapes to one dominated by agricultural landscapes. But the last decade of the century saw urbanization beginning to impact significantly. This process aligned with the establishment of various development policies, from land development for agriculture between the mid 1950s and the 1970s to an emphasis on manufacturing from the 1980s onward. Based on a case study in Selangor, peninsular Malaysia, a model of landscape pattern change is presented. It contains three stages according to the relative importance of rubber (first stage: 1900--1950s), oil palm (second stage: 1960s--1970s), and urban (third stage: 1980s--1990s) development that influenced landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity. The environmental consequences of this change have been depicted through loss of biodiversity, geohazard incidences, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. The spatial ecological information can be useful to development policy formulation, allowing diagnosis of the country's "health" and sustainability. The final section outlines the usefulness of landscape analysis in the policy-making process to prevent further fragmentation of the landscape and forest loss in Malaysia in the face of rapid economic development.

How landscape ecology informs global land-change science and policy

Treesearch

Audrey L. Mayer; Brian Buma; Am??lie Davis; Sara A. Gagn??; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Fiona K.A. Schmiegelow; Yolanda F. Wiersma; Janet Franklin

2016-01-01

Landscape ecology is a discipline that explicitly considers the influence of time and space on the environmental patterns we observe and the processes that create them. Although many of the topics studied in landscape ecology have public policy implications, three are of particular concern: climate change; land use–land cover change (LULCC); and a particular type of...

Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

The relationship between environmental amenities and changing human settlement patterns between 1980 and 2000 in the Midwestern USA

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Volker C. Radeloff; Robert Potts

2005-01-01

Natural resource amenities may be an attractor as people decide where they will live and invest in property. In the American Midwest these amenities range from lakes to forests to pastoral landscapes, depending on the ecological province. We used simple linear regression models to test the hypotheses that physiographic, land cover (composition and spatial pattern),...

Vegetation responses to abrupt climatic changes during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage 5) at Tenaghi Philippon, NE Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, A. M.; Roucoux, K. H.; Collier, R. E. L.; Müller, U. C.; Pross, J.; Tzedakis, P. C.

2016-12-01

The discovery that climate variability during the Last Glacial shifted rapidly between climate states has intensified efforts to understand the distribution, timing and impact of abrupt climate change under a wide range of boundary conditions. In contribution to this, we investigate the nature of abrupt environmental changes in terrestrial settings of the Mediterranean region during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5) and explore the relationships of these changes to high-latitude climate events. We present a new, temporally highly resolved (mean: 170 years) pollen record for the Last Interglacial Complex from Tenaghi Philippon, north-east Greece. The new pollen record, which spans the interval from 130,000 to 65,000 years ago, forms part of an exceptionally long polleniferous sediment archive covering the last 1.35 million years. The pollen data reveal an interglacial followed by alternating forest and steppe phases representing the interstadials and stadials of the Early Glacial. Superimposed on these millennial-scale changes is evidence of persistent sub-millennial-scale variability. We identify ten high-amplitude abrupt events in the pollen record, characterised by rapid contractions of closed forest to open steppe environment and interpreted to indicate major changes in moisture availability and temperature. The contractions in forest cover on millennial timescales appear associated with cooling events in the Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic and Greenland regions, linked to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the Early Glacial. On sub-millennial timescales, the pattern of changes in forest cover at Tenaghi Philippon display a structure similar to the pattern of short-lived precursor and rebound-type events detected in the Greenland ice-core record. Our findings indicate that persistent, high-amplitude environmental variability occurred throughout the Early Glacial, on both millennial and submillennial timescales. Furthermore, the similarity of the pattern of change between Tenaghi Philippon and Greenland on sub-millennial timescales suggests that teleconnections between the high-latitudes and the Mediterranean region operate on sub-millennial timescales and that some terrestrial archives, such as Tenaghi Philippon, are particularly sensitive recorders of these abrupt climate changes.

Using modern analogues to reconstruct past landcover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, Simon

2016-04-01

The physical cover of the earth plays an important role in the earth system. It affects the climate through feedbacks such as albedo and surface roughness, forms part of the carbon cycle as both sink and source and is both affected by and can affect human societies. Reconstructing past changes in land use and land cover helps to understand how these interactions may have changed over time, and provides important boundary conditions for paleoclimate models. Pollen assemblages, extracted from sedimentary sequences, provide one of the most abundant sources of information about past changes in land cover over the Holocene period. However, the relationship between plant cover and sedimentary pollen abundance is complex and non-linear, being affected by differential dispersal, production and taxonomic resolution. One method to correct for this and provide quantified estimates of past land cover is to calibrate modern pollen assemblages against contemporary remotely sensed estimates of land cover. Results will be presented from developing such a calibration for a set of European modern pollen samples and AVHRR-based tree cover estimates. An emphasis will be placed on the output of validation tests of the calibration, and what this indicates for the predictive skill of this approach. The calibration will then be applied to a set of pollen sequences for the European continent for the past 11,000 years, and the patterns of reconstructed land cover will be discussed.

Change detection in Arctic satellite imagery using clustering of sparse approximations (CoSA) over learned feature dictionaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, Daniela I.; Wilson, Cathy J.; Rowland, Joel C.; Altmann, Garrett L.

2015-06-01

Advanced pattern recognition and computer vision algorithms are of great interest for landscape characterization, change detection, and change monitoring in satellite imagery, in support of global climate change science and modeling. We present results from an ongoing effort to extend neuroscience-inspired models for feature extraction to the environmental sciences, and we demonstrate our work using Worldview-2 multispectral satellite imagery. We use a Hebbian learning rule to derive multispectral, multiresolution dictionaries directly from regional satellite normalized band difference index data. These feature dictionaries are used to build sparse scene representations, from which we automatically generate land cover labels via our CoSA algorithm: Clustering of Sparse Approximations. These data adaptive feature dictionaries use joint spectral and spatial textural characteristics to help separate geologic, vegetative, and hydrologic features. Land cover labels are estimated in example Worldview-2 satellite images of Barrow, Alaska, taken at two different times, and are used to detect and discuss seasonal surface changes. Our results suggest that an approach that learns from both spectral and spatial features is promising for practical pattern recognition problems in high resolution satellite imagery.

Multi-Scale Fractal Analysis of Image Texture and Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emerson, Charles W.; Lam, Nina Siu-Ngan; Quattrochi, Dale A.

1999-01-01

Analyses of the fractal dimension of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images of homogeneous land covers near Huntsville, Alabama revealed that the fractal dimension of an image of an agricultural land cover indicates greater complexity as pixel size increases, a forested land cover gradually grows smoother, and an urban image remains roughly self-similar over the range of pixel sizes analyzed (10 to 80 meters). A similar analysis of Landsat Thematic Mapper images of the East Humboldt Range in Nevada taken four months apart show a more complex relation between pixel size and fractal dimension. The major visible difference between the spring and late summer NDVI images is the absence of high elevation snow cover in the summer image. This change significantly alters the relation between fractal dimension and pixel size. The slope of the fractal dimension-resolution relation provides indications of how image classification or feature identification will be affected by changes in sensor spatial resolution.

Multi-Scale Fractal Analysis of Image Texture and Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emerson, Charles W.; Lam, Nina Siu-Ngan; Quattrochi, Dale A.

1999-01-01

Analyses of the fractal dimension of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images of homogeneous land covers near Huntsville, Alabama revealed that the fractal dimension of an image of an agricultural land cover indicates greater complexity as pixel size increases, a forested land cover gradually grows smoother, and an urban image remains roughly self-similar over the range of pixel sizes analyzed (10 to 80 meters). A similar analysis of Landsat Thematic Mapper images of the East Humboldt Range in Nevada taken four months apart show a more complex relation between pixel size and fractal dimension. The major visible difference between the spring and late summer NDVI images of the absence of high elevation snow cover in the summer image. This change significantly alters the relation between fractal dimension and pixel size. The slope of the fractal dimensional-resolution relation provides indications of how image classification or feature identification will be affected by changes in sensor spatial resolution.

Detection of short-term changes in vegetation cover by use of LANDSAT imagery. [Arizona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. M. (Principal Investigator); Wiseman, F. M.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. By using a constant band 6 to band 5 radiance ratio of 1.25, the changing pattern of areas of relatively dense vegetation cover was detected for the semiarid region in the vicinity of Tucson, Arizona. Electronically produced binary thematic masks were used to map areas with dense vegetation. The foliar cover threshold represented by the ratio was not accurately determined but field measurements show that the threshold lies in the range of 10 to 25 percent foliage cover. Montana evergreen forests with constant dense cover were correctly shown to exceed the threshold on all dates. The summer active grassland exceeded the threshold in the summer unless rainfall was insufficient. Desert areas exceeded the threshold during the spring of 1973 following heavy rains; the same areas during the rainless spring of 1974 did not exceed threshold. Irrigated fields, parks, golf courses, and riparian communities were among the habitats most frequently surpassing the threshold.

A long-term assessment of the variability in winter use of dense conifer cover by female white-tailed deer.

PubMed

Delgiudice, Glenn D; Fieberg, John R; Sampson, Barry A

2013-01-01

Long-term studies allow capture of a wide breadth of environmental variability and a broader context within which to maximize our understanding of relationships to specific aspects of wildlife behavior. The goal of our study was to improve our understanding of the biological value of dense conifer cover to deer on winter range relative to snow depth and ambient temperature. We examined variation among deer in their use of dense conifer cover during a 12-year study period as potentially influenced by winter severity and cover availability. Female deer were fitted with a mixture of very high frequency (VHF, n = 267) and Global Positioning System (GPS, n = 24) collars for monitoring use of specific cover types at the population and individual levels, respectively. We developed habitat composites for four study sites. We fit multinomial response models to VHF (daytime) data to describe population-level use patterns as a function of snow depth, ambient temperature, and cover availability. To develop alternative hypotheses regarding expected spatio-temporal patterns in the use of dense conifer cover, we considered two sets of competing sub-hypotheses. The first set addressed whether or not dense conifer cover was limiting on the four study sites. The second set considered four alternative sub-hypotheses regarding the potential influence of snow depth and ambient temperature on space use patterns. Deer use of dense conifer cover increased the most with increasing snow depth and most abruptly on the two sites where it was most available, suggestive of an energy conservation strategy. Deer use of dense cover decreased the most with decreasing temperatures on the sites where it was most available. At all four sites deer made greater daytime use (55 to >80% probability of use) of open vegetation types at the lowest daily minimum temperatures indicating the importance of thermal benefits afforded from increased exposure to solar radiation. Date-time plots of GPS data (24 hr) allowed us to explore individual diurnal and seasonal patterns of habitat use relative to changes in snow depth. There was significant among-animal variability in their propensity to be found in three density classes of conifer cover and other open types, but little difference between diurnal and nocturnal patterns of habitat use. Consistent with our findings reported elsewhere that snow depth has a greater impact on deer survival than ambient temperature, herein our population-level results highlight the importance of dense conifer cover as snow shelter rather than thermal cover. Collectively, our findings suggest that maximizing availability of dense conifer cover in an energetically beneficial arrangement with quality feeding sites should be a prominent component of habitat management for deer.

A Long-Term Assessment of the Variability in Winter Use of Dense Conifer Cover by Female White-Tailed Deer

PubMed Central

DelGiudice, Glenn D.; Fieberg, John R.; Sampson, Barry A.

2013-01-01

Backgound Long-term studies allow capture of a wide breadth of environmental variability and a broader context within which to maximize our understanding of relationships to specific aspects of wildlife behavior. The goal of our study was to improve our understanding of the biological value of dense conifer cover to deer on winter range relative to snow depth and ambient temperature. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined variation among deer in their use of dense conifer cover during a 12-year study period as potentially influenced by winter severity and cover availability. Female deer were fitted with a mixture of very high frequency (VHF, n = 267) and Global Positioning System (GPS, n = 24) collars for monitoring use of specific cover types at the population and individual levels, respectively. We developed habitat composites for four study sites. We fit multinomial response models to VHF (daytime) data to describe population-level use patterns as a function of snow depth, ambient temperature, and cover availability. To develop alternative hypotheses regarding expected spatio-temporal patterns in the use of dense conifer cover, we considered two sets of competing sub-hypotheses. The first set addressed whether or not dense conifer cover was limiting on the four study sites. The second set considered four alternative sub-hypotheses regarding the potential influence of snow depth and ambient temperature on space use patterns. Deer use of dense conifer cover increased the most with increasing snow depth and most abruptly on the two sites where it was most available, suggestive of an energy conservation strategy. Deer use of dense cover decreased the most with decreasing temperatures on the sites where it was most available. At all four sites deer made greater daytime use (55 to >80% probability of use) of open vegetation types at the lowest daily minimum temperatures indicating the importance of thermal benefits afforded from increased exposure to solar radiation. Date-time plots of GPS data (24 hr) allowed us to explore individual diurnal and seasonal patterns of habitat use relative to changes in snow depth. There was significant among-animal variability in their propensity to be found in three density classes of conifer cover and other open types, but little difference between diurnal and nocturnal patterns of habitat use. Conclusions/Significance Consistent with our findings reported elsewhere that snow depth has a greater impact on deer survival than ambient temperature, herein our population-level results highlight the importance of dense conifer cover as snow shelter rather than thermal cover. Collectively, our findings suggest that maximizing availability of dense conifer cover in an energetically beneficial arrangement with quality feeding sites should be a prominent component of habitat management for deer. PMID:23785421

[The variability of vegetation beginning date of greenness period in spring in the north-south transect of eastern China based on NOAA NDVI].

PubMed

Wang, Zhi; Liu, Shi-rong; Sun, Peng-sen; Guo, Zhi-hua; Zhou, Lian-di

2010-10-01

NDVI based on NOAA/AVHRR from 1982 to 2003 are used to monitor variable rules for the growing season in spring of vegetation in the north-south transect of eastern China (NSTEC). The following, mainly, are included: (1) The changing speed of greenness period in spring of most regions in NSTEC is slow and correlation with the year is not distinct; (2) The regions in which greenness period in spring distinctly change mainly presented an advance; (3) The regions in which inter-annual fluctuation of greenness period in spring is over 10 days were found in 3 kinds of areas: the area covered with agricultural vegetation types; the areas covered with evergreen vegetation types; the areas covered with steppe vegetation types; (4) changes of vegetation greenness period in spring have spatio-temporal patterns.

Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran).

PubMed

Soleimani, Azam; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Jafari, Mostafa; Francaviglia, Rosa

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) contains a considerable portion of the world's terrestrial carbon stock, and is affected by changes in land cover and climate. SOC modeling is a useful approach to assess the impact of land use, land use change and climate change on carbon (C) sequestration. This study aimed to: (i) test the performance of RothC model using data measured from different land covers in Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran); and (ii) predict changes in SOC under different climate change scenarios that may occur in the future. The following land covers were considered: Quercus castaneifolia (QC), Acer velutinum (AV), Alnus subcordata (AS), Cupressus sempervirens (CS) plantations and a natural forest (NF). For assessment of future climate change projections the Fifth Assessment IPCC report was used. These projections were generated with nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) leading to very low and high greenhouse gases concentration levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively), and for four 20year-periods up to 2099 (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Simulated values of SOC correlated well with measured data (R 2 =0.64 to 0.91) indicating a good efficiency of the RothC model. Our results showed an overall decrease in SOC stocks by 2099 under all land covers and climate change scenarios, but the extent of the decrease varied with the climate models, the emissions scenarios, time periods and land covers. Acer velutinum plantation was the most sensitive land cover to future climate change (range of decrease 8.34-21.83tCha -1 ). Results suggest that modeling techniques can be effectively applied for evaluating SOC stocks, allowing the identification of current patterns in the soil and the prediction of future conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal patterns of unburned areas within fire perimeters in the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014

Treesearch

Arjan J. H. Meddens; Crystal A. Kolden; James A. Lutz; John T. Abatzoglou; Andrew T. Hudak

2018-01-01

A warming climate, fire exclusion, and land cover changes are altering the conditions that produced historical fire regimes and facilitating increased recent wildfire activity in the northwestern United States. Understanding the impacts of changing fire regimes on forest recruitment and succession, species distributions, carbon cycling, and ecosystem services is...

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modification of surface properties of solids by femtosecond LIPSS writing: comparative studies on silicon and stainless steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varlamova, Olga; Hoefner, Kevin; Ratzke, Markus; Reif, Juergen; Sarker, Debasish

2017-12-01

We investigate the implication of modified surface morphology on wettability of stainless steel (AISI 304) and silicon (100) targets covered by laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSS) on extended areas (10 × 10 mm2). Using multiple pulses from a Ti: Sapphire laser (790 nm/100 fs/1 kHz) at a fluence in the range of 0.35-2.1 J/cm2 on a spot of 1.13 × 10- 4 cm2, we scanned the target under the spot to cover a large area. A systematical variation of the irradiation dose by changing the scanning speed and thus dwelling time per spot results in the formation of surface patterns ranging from very regular linear structures with a lateral period of about 500-600 nm to complex patterns of 3D microstructures with several-µm feature size, hierarchically covered by nano-ripples.

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Soil Texture Mediates the Response of Tree Cover to Rainfall Intensity in African Savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Case, M. F.; Staver, A. C.

2017-12-01

Global circulation models predict widespread shifts in the frequency and intensity of rainfall, even where mean annual rainfall does not change. Resulting changes in soil moisture dynamics could have major consequences for plant communities and ecosystems, but the direction of potential vegetation responses can be challenging to predict. In tropical savannas, where tree and grasses coexist, contradictory lines of evidence have suggested that tree cover could respond either positively or negatively to less frequent, more intense rainfall. Here, we analyzed remote sensing data and continental-scale soils maps to examine whether soil texture or fire could explain heterogeneous responses of savanna tree cover to intra-annual rainfall variability across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that tree cover generally increases with mean wet-season rainfall, decreases with mean wet-season rainfall intensity, and decreases with fire frequency. However, soil sand content mediates these relationships: the response to rainfall intensity switches qualitatively depending on soil texture, such that tree cover decreases dramatically with less frequent, more intense rainfall on clay soils but increases with rainfall intensity on sandy soils in semi-arid savannas. We propose potential ecohydrological mechanisms for this heterogeneous response, and emphasize that predictions of savanna vegetation responses to global change should account for interactions between soil texture and changing rainfall patterns.

The importance of land cover change across urban-rural typologies for climate modeling.

PubMed

Vargo, Jason; Habeeb, Dana; Stone, Brian

2013-01-15

Land cover changes affect local surface energy balances by changing the amount of solar energy reflected, the magnitude and duration over which absorbed energy is released as heat, and the amount of energy that is diverted to non-heating fluxes through evaporation. However, such local influences often are only crudely included in climate modeling exercises, if at all. A better understanding of local land conversion dynamics can serve to inform inputs for climate models and increase the role for land use planning in climate management policy. Here we present a new approach for projecting and incorporating metropolitan land cover change into mesoscale climate and other environmental assessment models. Our results demonstrate the relative contributions of different land development patterns to land cover change and conversion and suggest that regional growth management strategies serving to increase settlement densities over time can have a significant influence on the rate of deforestation per unit of population growth. Employing the approach presented herein, the impacts of land conversion on climate change and on parallel environmental systems and services, such as ground water recharge, habitat provision, and food production, may all be investigated more closely and managed through land use planning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Variability and in Snow Phenology over Eurasian Continent druing 1966-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, X.; Zhang, T.; Wang, K.; Zheng, L.; Wang, H.

2016-12-01

Snow cover is a key part of the cryosphere, which is a critical component of the global climate system. Snow cover phenology critically effects on the surface energy budget, the surface albedo and hydrological processes. In this study, the climatology and spatiotemporal variability of snow cover phenology were investigated using the long-term (1966-2012) ground-based measurements of daily snow depth from 1103 stations across the Eurasian Continent. The results showed that the distributions of the first date, last date, snow cover duration and number of snow cover days generally represented the latitudinal zonality over the Eurasian Continent, and there were significant elevation gradient patterns in the Tibetan Plateau. The first date of snow cover delayed by about 1.2 day decade-1, the last date of snow cover advanced with the rate of -1.2 day decade-1, snow cover duration and number of snow cover days shortened by about 2.7and 0.6 day decade-1, respectively, from 1966 through 2012. Compared with precipitation, the correlation between snow cover phenology and air temperature was more significant. The changes in snow cover duration were mainly controlled by the changes of air temperature in autumn and spring. The shortened number of snow cover days was affected by rising temperature during the cold season except for the air temperature in autumn and spring.

Combining MODIS and Landsat imagery to estimate and map boreal forest cover loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Potapov, P.; Hansen, Matthew C.; Stehman, S.V.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Pittman, K.

2008-01-01

Estimation of forest cover change is important for boreal forests, one of the most extensive forested biomes, due to its unique role in global timber stock, carbon sequestration and deposition, and high vulnerability to the effects of global climate change. We used time-series data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to produce annual forest cover loss hotspot maps. These maps were used to assign all blocks (18.5 by 18.5 km) partitioning the boreal biome into strata of high, medium and low likelihood of forest cover loss. A stratified random sample of 118 blocks was interpreted for forest cover and forest cover loss using high spatial resolution Landsat imagery from 2000 and 2005. Area of forest cover gross loss from 2000 to 2005 within the boreal biome is estimated to be 1.63% (standard error 0.10%) of the total biome area, and represents a 4.02% reduction in year 2000 forest cover. The proportion of identified forest cover loss relative to regional forest area is much higher in North America than in Eurasia (5.63% to 3.00%). Of the total forest cover loss identified, 58.9% is attributable to wildfires. The MODIS pan-boreal change hotspot estimates reveal significant increases in forest cover loss due to wildfires in 2002 and 2003, with 2003 being the peak year of loss within the 5-year study period. Overall, the precision of the aggregate forest cover loss estimates derived from the Landsat data and the value of the MODIS-derived map displaying the spatial and temporal patterns of forest loss demonstrate the efficacy of this protocol for operational, cost-effective, and timely biome-wide monitoring of gross forest cover loss.

Using remote sensing and GIS to detect and monitor land use and land cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh during 1960-2005.

PubMed

Dewan, Ashraf M; Yamaguchi, Yasushi

2009-03-01

This paper illustrates the result of land use/cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh using topographic maps and multi-temporal remotely sensed data from 1960 to 2005. The Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was used to extract information from satellite data, and post-classification change detection method was employed to detect and monitor land use/cover change. Derived land use/cover maps were further validated by using high resolution images such as SPOT, IRS, IKONOS and field data. The overall accuracy of land cover change maps, generated from Landsat and IRS-1D data, ranged from 85% to 90%. The analysis indicated that the urban expansion of Dhaka Metropolitan resulted in the considerable reduction of wetlands, cultivated land, vegetation and water bodies. The maps showed that between 1960 and 2005 built-up areas increased approximately 15,924 ha, while agricultural land decreased 7,614 ha, vegetation decreased 2,336 ha, wetland/lowland decreased 6,385 ha, and water bodies decreased about 864 ha. The amount of urban land increased from 11% (in 1960) to 344% in 2005. Similarly, the growth of landfill/bare soils category was about 256% in the same period. Much of the city's rapid growth in population has been accommodated in informal settlements with little attempt being made to limit the risk of environmental impairments. The study quantified the patterns of land use/cover change for the last 45 years for Dhaka Metropolitan that forms valuable resources for urban planners and decision makers to devise sustainable land use and environmental planning.

Assessment of land use/land cover dynamics of Tso Moriri Lake, a Ramsar site in India.

PubMed

Gupta, Sharad Kumar; Shukla, Dericks Praise

2016-12-01

Wetlands accounts for 6% area of the Earth's land cover and nearly 17% of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. They are of utmost importance to climate dynamics and are critical links between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Despite the need of high attention towards conserving and managing wetland resources, mapping them is a least practiced activity. This study shows the temporal change in land use and land cover pattern of Tso Moriri Lake, the highest altitude lake in India and designated as Ramsar site in year 2002, using multi-sensor and multi-date imagery. Due to change in hydro-meteorological conditions of the region, this lake area has been reduced. Since the lake recharge is dependent on snowmelt, hence change in climatic conditions (less snowfall in winters), to a certain extent, is also responsible for the decrease in water level and water spread of the lake. The result shows that the lake area has reduced approximately 2 km 2 in the last 15 years, and also, agriculture, grasslands, and vegetation cover have increased to a significant extent. Agricultural land and grasslands have doubled while the vegetation cover has increased more than six times, showing the coupled effect of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Trend of temperature and precipitation corroborates the effects of climate change in this region.

A modelling approach to estimate carbon emissions from D.R.C. deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najdovski, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; Defourny, Pierre; Moreau, Inès; Maignan, Fabienne; Ciais, Philippe; Verhegghen, Astrid; Kibambe Lubamba, Jean-Paul; Jungers, Quentin; De Weirdt, Marjolein; Verbeeck, Hans; MacBean, Natasha; Peylin, Philippe

2014-05-01

With its 1.8 million squared kilometres, the Congo basin dense forest represents the second largest contiguous forest of the world. These extensive forest ecosystems play a significant role in the regulation of global climate by their potential carbon dioxide emissions and carbon storage. Under a stable climate, the vegetation, assumed to be at the equilibrium, is known to present neutral emissions over a year with seasonal variations. However, modifications in temperatures, precipitations, CO2 atmospheric concentrations have the potential to modify this balance leading to higher or lower biomass storage. In addition, deforestation and forest degradation have played a significant role over the past several decades and are expected to become increasingly important in the future. Here, we quantify the relative effects of deforestation and 21st century climate change on carbon emissions in Congo Basin over the next three decades (2005-2035). Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using a series of moderate resolution (10 km) vegetation maps merged with spatially explicit deforestation projections and developed to work with a prognostic carbon cycle model. The inversion of the deforestation model allowed hindcast land-use patterns back to 1800 by using land cover change rates based on the HYDE database. Simulations were made over the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) using the ORCHIDEE dynamic global vegetation model with climate forcing from the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for the HadGEM2. Two simulations were made, a reference simulation with land cover fixed at 2005 and a land cover change simulation with changing climate and CO2, to quantify the net land cover change emissions and climate emissions directly. Because of the relatively high resolution of the model simulations, the spatial patterns of human-driven carbon losses can be tracked in the context of climate change, providing information for mitigation and vulnerability activities.

Global rates of habitat loss and implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallant, Alisa L.; Klaver, R.W.; Casper, G.S.; Lannoo, M.J.

2007-01-01

A large number of factors are known to affect amphibian population viability, but most authors agree that the principal causes of amphibian declines are habitat loss, alteration, and fragmentation. We provide a global assessment of land use dynamics in the context of amphibian distributions. We accomplished this by compiling global maps of amphibian species richness and recent rates of change in land cover, land use, and human population growth. The amphibian map was developed using a combination of published literature and digital databases. We used an ecoregion framework to help interpret species distributions across environmental, rather than political, boundaries. We mapped rates of land cover and use change with statistics from the World Resources Institute, refined with a global digital dataset on land cover derived from satellite data. Temporal maps of human population were developed from the World Resources Institute database and other published sources. Our resultant map of amphibian species richness illustrates that amphibians are distributed in an uneven pattern around the globe, preferring terrestrial and freshwater habitats in ecoregions that are warm and moist. Spatiotemporal patterns of human population show that, prior to the 20th century, population growth and spread was slower, most extensive in the temperate ecoregions, and largely exclusive of major regions of high amphibian richness. Since the beginning of the 20th century, human population growth has been exponential and has occurred largely in the subtropical and tropical ecoregions favored by amphibians. Population growth has been accompanied by broad-scale changes in land cover and land use, typically in support of agriculture. We merged information on land cover, land use, and human population growth to generate a composite map showing the rates at which humans have been changing the world. When compared with the map of amphibian species richness, we found that many of the regions of the earth supporting the richest assemblages of amphibians are currently undergoing the highest rates of landscape modification.

Episodic heterogeneous decline and recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ateweberhan, M.; McClanahan, T. R.; Graham, N. A. J.; Sheppard, C. R. C.

2011-09-01

Long-term changes in coral cover for the Caribbean and the Pacific/Southeast Asia regions (PSEA) have proven extremely useful in assessing the main drivers, magnitude and timescales of change. The one major coral reef region where such assessments have not been made is the Indian Ocean (IO). Here, we compiled coral cover survey data from across the IO into a database of ~2,000 surveys from 366 coral reef sites collected between 1977 and 2005. The compilation shows that the 1998 mass coral bleaching event was the single most important and widespread factor influencing the change in coral cover across the region. The trend in coral cover followed a step-type function driven by the 1998 period, which differs from findings in the Caribbean and the PSEA regions where declines have been more continuous and mostly began in the 1980s. Significant regional variation was observed, with most heterogeneity occurring during and after 1998. There was a significant relationship between cover and longitude for all periods, but the relationship became stronger in the period immediately after 1998. Before 1998, highest coral cover was observed in the central IO region, while this changed to the eastern region after 1998. Coral cover and latitude displayed a significant U-shaped relationship immediately after 1998, due to a large decrease in cover in the northern-central regions. Post-1998 coral cover was directly correlated to the impact of the disturbance; areas with the lowest mortality having the highest cover with India-Sri Lanka being an outlier due to its exceptionally high recovery. In 1998, reefs within Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) were more heavily impacted than unmanaged reefs, losing significantly greater total cover. MPA recovery was greater such that no differences were observed by 2001-2005. This study indicates that the regional patterns in coral cover distribution in the IO are driven mainly by episodic and acute environmental stress.

Characteristics of phonation onset in a two-layer vocal fold model.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhaoyan

2009-02-01

Characteristics of phonation onset were investigated in a two-layer body-cover continuum model of the vocal folds as a function of the biomechanical and geometric properties of the vocal folds. The analysis showed that an increase in either the body or cover stiffness generally increased the phonation threshold pressure and phonation onset frequency, although the effectiveness of varying body or cover stiffness as a pitch control mechanism varied depending on the body-cover stiffness ratio. Increasing body-cover stiffness ratio reduced the vibration amplitude of the body layer, and the vocal fold motion was gradually restricted to the medial surface, resulting in more effective flow modulation and higher sound production efficiency. The fluid-structure interaction induced synchronization of more than one group of eigenmodes so that two or more eigenmodes may be simultaneously destabilized toward phonation onset. At certain conditions, a slight change in vocal fold stiffness or geometry may cause phonation onset to occur as eigenmode synchronization due to a different pair of eigenmodes, leading to sudden changes in phonation onset frequency, vocal fold vibration pattern, and sound production efficiency. Although observed in a linear stability analysis, a similar mechanism may also play a role in register changes at finite-amplitude oscillations.

[Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change].

PubMed

Song, Chun-qiao; You, Song-cai; Ke, Ling-hong; Liu, Gao-huan; Zhong, Xin-ke

2011-08-01

By using the 2001-2008 MOMS land cover products (MCDl2Ql) and based on the modified classification scheme embodied the characteristics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau, the annual land cover type maps of the Plateau were drawn, with the dynamic changes of each land cover type analyzed by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrix, and landscape pattern indices. In 2001-2008, due to the acceleration of global climate warming, the areas of glacier and snow-covered land in the Plateau decreased rapidly, and the melted snow water gathered into low-lying valley or basin, making the lake level raised and the lake area enlarged. Some permanent wetlands were formed because of partially submersed grassland. The vegetation cover did not show any evident meliorated or degraded trend. From 2001 to 2004, as the climate became warmer and wetter, the spatial distribution of desert began to shrink, and the proportions of sparse grassland and grassland increased. From 2006 to 2007, due to the warmer and drier climate, the desert bare land increased, and the sparse grassland decreased. From 2001 to 2008, both the landscape fragmentation degree and the land cover heterogeneity decreased, and the differences in the proportions of all land cover types somewhat enlarged.

[Land use pattern and its dynamic changes in Amur tiger distribution region].

PubMed

Li, Zhong-wen; Wu, Jian-guo; Kou, Xiao-jun; Tian, Yu; Wang, Tian-ming; Mu, Pu; Ge, Jian-ping

2009-03-01

Land use and land cover change has been the primary cause for the habitat loss and fragmentation in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use and land cover in the distribution region, as well as their effects on the population dynamics of Amur tiger, this paper analyzed the development process and its characteristics of the main land use types (agricultural land, forest land, and construction land) in this region, with the land use change history being divided chronically into three distinctive periods, i.e., ancient times (prior to 1860), modern times (1860-1949), and contemporary times (after 1949). The results showed that the sporadic land use in ancient times had no significant effects on the survival of Amur tiger, while the extensive and intensive land use after the 1860s was mainly responsible for the decrease of Amur tiger population and its living space. Since 1949, the Amur tiger distribution region has been divided into two parts, i.e., Northeast China and Russia Far East. The differences in land use pattern, policy, and intensity between these two parts led to different survival status of Amur tiger. The key driving forces for the land use change in Amur tiger distribution region were human population increase, policy change, and increased productivity.

Modular Organization of Dynamic Camouflage Body Patterning in Cuttlefish

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-28

Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 28 Feb 13 – 19 Sept 14 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Modular organization of dynamic camouflage body...responsive areas are positively correlated with increasing voltages and depths of the electrode in the medulla of the optic lobe, and (2) the island- like...aim of using the dynamically changing visual background to study the spatiotemporal expression of body patterns was not successful, we discovered

Coastal modification of a scene employing multispectral images and vector operators.

PubMed

Lira, Jorge

2017-05-01

Changes in sea level, wind patterns, sea current patterns, and tide patterns have produced morphologic transformations in the coastline area of Tamaulipas Sate in North East Mexico. Such changes generated a modification of the coastline and variations of the texture-relief and texture of the continental area of Tamaulipas. Two high-resolution multispectral satellite Satellites Pour l'Observation de la Terre images were employed to quantify the morphologic change of such continental area. The images cover a time span close to 10 years. A variant of the principal component analysis was used to delineate the modification of the land-water line. To quantify changes in texture-relief and texture, principal component analysis was applied to the multispectral images. The first principal components of each image were modeled as a discrete bidimensional vector field. The divergence and Laplacian vector operators were applied to the discrete vector field. The divergence provided the change of texture, while the Laplacian produced the change of texture-relief in the area of study.

Assessing the impact of future land use and land cover changes on climate over Brazilian semiarid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha, A. M.; Alvalá, R. S.; Kubota, P. Y.; Vieira, R.

2013-12-01

The continental surface vegetal cover has been considerably changed by human activities, mainly through natural vegetation conversion in grasslands. Such changes in surface cover may impact the regional and global climates, through of the changes in biophysical processes and CO2 exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere. In recent decades, most of the Brazilian territory has been presenting transformation in the land use/cover spatial patterns. The typical vegetation of the Brazilian semiarid, known as caatinga (closed shrubland) had been replaced by pasture lands. Based on that, the main objective of this work was to investigate the impacts of future land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on surface processes and on the climate of Brazilian semiarid region. Numerical experiments using the AGCM/CPTEC/IBIS were performed in order to investigate the impacts of LCLUC on the climate of Brazilian semiarid due to the replacement of natural vegetation by pasture and degraded areas. The climate impacts of LUCC were assessed using climate simulations considering two scenarios of vegetation distribution: i) Potential Vegetation (Control) and ii) Future scenario of the vegetation: maximum pasture limited by areas of desert and semidesert. These degraded areas were obtained from the future projection of the biome distribution in South America developed by Salazar Velasquez (2009) using CPTEC PVMReg and emission scenarios A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In general, the simulation results showed that the LCLUC, due to the changes in relevant surface variables, has caused alterations in local and neighborhood regions climate. The LCLUC leads to a decrease in mean rainfall during dry season at study area. A meridional dipole pattern with near surface temperature increase (reduction) in the northern (southern) areas of semiarid was found. The results also highlight that LUCC led to changes in the components of the surface energy and carbon balance. These results suggest that LCLUC, even on a small scale in Brazil's semiarid region, can cause climate impacts, in local and regional scale. Finally, we highlight that the diagnosis of the evolution of LUCC and its climatic implications are essential to guide policy makers in regard to resources application and on policies development, in order to achieve a better management and planning for this important region of the country.

Compact Reconfigurable Antenna with an Omnidirectional Pattern and Four Directional Patterns for Wireless Sensor Systems

PubMed Central

Wang, Ren; Wang, Bing-Zhong; Huang, Wei-Ying; Ding, Xiao

2016-01-01

A compact reconfigurable antenna with an omnidirectional mode and four directional modes is proposed. The antenna has a main radiator and four parasitic elements printed on a dielectric substrate. By changing the status of diodes soldered on the parasitic elements, the proposed antenna can generate four directional radiation patterns and one omnidirectional radiation pattern. The main beam directions of the four directional modes are almost orthogonal and the four directional beams can jointly cover a 360° range in the horizontal plane, i.e., the main radiation plane of omnidirectional mode. The whole volume of the antenna and the control network is approximately 0.70 λ × 0.53 λ × 0.02 λ, where λ is the wavelength corresponding to the center frequency. The proposed antenna has a simple structure and small dimensions under the requirement that the directional radiation patterns can jointly cover the main radiation plane of the omnidirectional mode, therefore, it can be used in smart wireless sensor systems for different application scenarios. PMID:27092512

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Land Cover Changes in Kigali, Rwanda Using Multitemporal Landsat Data and Landscape Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mugiraneza, T.; Haas, J.; Ban, Y.

2017-11-01

Mapping urbanization and ensuing environmental impacts using satellite data combined with landscape metrics has become a hot research topic. The objectives of the study are to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of urbanization patterns of Kigali, Rwanda over the last three decades (from 1984 to 2015) using multitemporal Landsat data and to assess the associated environmental impact using landscape metrics. Landsat images, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) variance texture and digital elevation model (DEM) data were classified using a support vector machine (SVM). Eight landscape indices were derived from classified images for urbanization environment impact assessment. Seven land cover classes were derived with an overall accuracy exceeding 88 % with Kappa Coefficients around 0.8. As most prominent changes, cropland was reduced considerably in favour of built-up areas that increased from 2,349 ha to 11,579 ha between 1984 and 2015. During those 31 years, the increased number of patches in most land cover classes illustrated landscape fragmentation, especially for forest. The landscape configuration indices demonstrate that in general the land cover pattern remained stable for cropland but it was highly changed in built-up areas. Satellite-based analysis and quantification of urbanization and its effects using landscape metrics are found to be interesting for grassroots and provide a cost-effective method for urban information production. This information can be used for e.g. potential design and implementation of early warning systems that cater for urbanization effects.

Bayesian spatial modelling and the significance of agricultural land use to scrub typhus infection in Taiwan.

PubMed

Wardrop, Nicola A; Kuo, Chi-Chien; Wang, Hsi-Chieh; Clements, Archie C A; Lee, Pei-Fen; Atkinson, Peter M

2013-11-01

Scrub typhus is transmitted by the larval stage of trombiculid mites. Environmental factors, including land cover and land use, are known to influence breeding and survival of trombiculid mites and, thus, also the spatial heterogeneity of scrub typhus risk. Here, a spatially autoregressive modelling framework was applied to scrub typhus incidence data from Taiwan, covering the period 2003 to 2011, to provide increased understanding of the spatial pattern of scrub typhus risk and the environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to this pattern. A clear spatial pattern in scrub typhus incidence was observed within Taiwan, and incidence was found to be significantly correlated with several land cover classes, temperature, elevation, normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, population density, average income and the proportion of the population that work in agriculture. The final multivariate regression model included statistically significant correlations between scrub typhus incidence and average income (negatively correlated), the proportion of land that contained mosaics of cropland and vegetation (positively correlated) and elevation (positively correlated). These results highlight the importance of land cover on scrub typhus incidence: mosaics of cropland and vegetation represent a transitional land cover type which can provide favourable habitats for rodents and, therefore, trombiculid mites. In Taiwan, these transitional land cover areas tend to occur in less populated and mountainous areas, following the frontier establishment and subsequent partial abandonment of agricultural cultivation, due to demographic and socioeconomic changes. Future land use policy decision-making should ensure that potential public health outcomes, such as modified risk of scrub typhus, are considered.

Changes in landscape patterns and associated forest succession on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado

Treesearch

Daniel J. Manier; Richard D. Laven

2001-01-01

Using repeat photography, we conducted a qualitative and quantitative analysis of changes in forest cover on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. For the quantitative analysis, both images in a pair were classified using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies. Comparisons were made using three landscape metrics: total...

Different in the dark: The effect of habitat characteristics on community composition and beta diversity in bromeliad microfauna.

PubMed

Busse, Annika; Antiqueira, Pablo A P; Neutzling, Alexandre S; Wolf, Anna M; Romero, Gustavo Q; Petermann, Jana S

2018-01-01

The mechanisms which structure communities have been the focus of a large body of research. Here, we address the question if habitat characteristics describing habitat quality may drive changes in community composition and beta diversity of bromeliad-inhabiting microfauna. In our system, changes in canopy cover along an environmental gradient may affect resource availability, disturbance in form of daily water temperature fluctuations and predation, and thus may lead to changes in community structure of bromeliad microfauna through differences in habitat quality along this gradient. Indeed, we observed distinct changes in microfauna community composition along the environmental gradient explained by changes in the extent of daily water temperature fluctuations. We found beta diversity to be higher under low habitat quality (low canopy cover) than under high habitat quality (high canopy cover), which could potentially be explained by a higher relative importance of stochastic processes under low habitat quality. We also partitioned beta diversity into turnover and nestedness components and we found a nested pattern of beta diversity along the environmental gradient, with communities from the lower-quality habitat being nested subsets of communities from the higher-quality habitat. However, this pattern resulted from an increase in microfauna alpha diversity with an increase in habitat quality. By providing insights into microfauna-environment relationships our results contribute to the mechanistic understanding of community dynamics in small freshwater bodies. Here, we highlight the importance of habitat characteristics representing habitat quality in structuring communities, and suggest that this information may help to improve conservation practices of small freshwater ecosystems.

Different in the dark: The effect of habitat characteristics on community composition and beta diversity in bromeliad microfauna

PubMed Central

Antiqueira, Pablo A. P.; Neutzling, Alexandre S.; Wolf, Anna M.; Romero, Gustavo Q.; Petermann, Jana S.

2018-01-01

The mechanisms which structure communities have been the focus of a large body of research. Here, we address the question if habitat characteristics describing habitat quality may drive changes in community composition and beta diversity of bromeliad-inhabiting microfauna. In our system, changes in canopy cover along an environmental gradient may affect resource availability, disturbance in form of daily water temperature fluctuations and predation, and thus may lead to changes in community structure of bromeliad microfauna through differences in habitat quality along this gradient. Indeed, we observed distinct changes in microfauna community composition along the environmental gradient explained by changes in the extent of daily water temperature fluctuations. We found beta diversity to be higher under low habitat quality (low canopy cover) than under high habitat quality (high canopy cover), which could potentially be explained by a higher relative importance of stochastic processes under low habitat quality. We also partitioned beta diversity into turnover and nestedness components and we found a nested pattern of beta diversity along the environmental gradient, with communities from the lower-quality habitat being nested subsets of communities from the higher-quality habitat. However, this pattern resulted from an increase in microfauna alpha diversity with an increase in habitat quality. By providing insights into microfauna-environment relationships our results contribute to the mechanistic understanding of community dynamics in small freshwater bodies. Here, we highlight the importance of habitat characteristics representing habitat quality in structuring communities, and suggest that this information may help to improve conservation practices of small freshwater ecosystems. PMID:29401522

Controls on sediment cover in bedrock-alluvial channels of the Henry Mountains, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodge, R. A.; Yager, E.; Johnson, J. P.; Tranmer, A.

2017-12-01

The location and extent of sediment cover in bedrock-alluvial channels influences sediment transport rates, channel incision and instream ecology. However, factors affecting sediment cover and how it responds to changes in relative sediment supply have rarely been quantitatively evaluated in field settings. Using field surveys and SFM analysis of channel reach topography, we quantified sediment cover and channel properties including slope, width, grain size distributions, and bedrock and alluvial roughness in North Wash and Chelada Creek in the Henry Mountains, Utah. Along reaches where upstream sediment supply does not appear to be restricted, we find that the fraction of local bedrock exposure increases as a function of local relative transport capacity . In a downstream section of Chelada Creek, decadal-scale sediment supply has been restricted by an upstream culvert that has caused a backwater effect and corresponding upstream deposition. In this section, alluvial cover is uncorrelated with local stream power. To test the impact of relative sediment supply on sediment cover, a 1D sediment transport model was used to predict the equilibrium sediment cover in Chelada Creek under varying flow and sediment supply conditions. Sediment transport in each model section was predicted using the partial cover model of Johnson (2015), which accounts for differences in bedrock and alluvial roughness on critical shear stress and flow resistance. Model runs in which sediment supply was approximately equal to mean transport capacity produced a pattern of sediment cover which best matched the field observations upstream of the culvert. However, runs where sediment supply was under-capacity produced the pattern most similar to field observations downstream of the culvert, consistent with our field-based interpretations. Model results were insensitive to initial sediment cover, and equilibrium was relatively quickly reached, suggesting that the channel is responsive to changes in imposed conditions. Overall, our results suggest that alluvial cover fractions may be predictable at spatial scales relevant for landscape evolution modelling, but that local bed roughness and thresholds in relative sediment supply may need to be accounted for.

Characterizing human-environment interactions in the Galapagos Islands: A case study of land use/land cover dynamics in Isabela Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCleary, Amy L.

This dissertation examines contemporary land use and land cover (LULC) change in the communities and protected areas of Isabela Island to provide insights into human-environment interactions in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. The growing human presence in Galapagos over the last four decades has been accompanied by significant changes in LULC on inhabited islands in the archipelago. Local stakeholders and decision-makers have recently called for a more integrative approach to understanding interactions between people and the environment in the archipelago. This study is guided by two complementary bodies of work situated within the human-environment tradition of Geography---land change science and landscape ecology. First, support Vector Machine (SVM) and Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) classifiers are evaluated for mapping LULC from high spatial resolution satellite images. The results show that thematic LULC classifications produced by OBIA are more accurate overall than those generated by SVM. However, important tradeoffs exist between improvements in classification accuracy and processing requirements. The composition and spatial configuration of LULC change are then mapped and quantified from a time series of QuickBird and WorldView-2 satellite images from 2003 to 2010. The pattern metric and change detection analyses reveal that land use change is extensive within the communities due to the expansion and consolidation of built-up areas, and fragmentation of and declines in agriculture. The Galapagos National Park is primarily transformed by exotic plant invasion, forests expansion, and shrinking coastal lagoons. Patterns of agricultural land abandonment, plant invasion, and forest expansion over the same period are described from pattern metric and overlay analyses. Potential drivers of these LULC transitions are identified from logistic regression models, descriptive statistics of agricultural surveys and population censuses, and interviews with landowners. The results reveal that agricultural abandonment is widespread throughout Isabela, and many abandoned fields are invaded by introduced plants, such as guava. Biophysical and geographic factors, such as topography and distance to roads, do not significantly explain patterns of agricultural land abandonment or associated land cover transitions at the pixel level. However, rural-urban migration, declines in the profitability of agriculture, and small labor pools appear to influence agricultural abandonment.

Spatiotemporal changes of land use patterns in high mountain areas of Northeast Turkey: a case study in Maçka.

PubMed

Sen, Gokhan; Bayramoglu, Mahmut M; Toksoy, Devlet

2015-08-01

High mountain forests (HMFs) have an important significance in forest ecosystems, but the benefits from such ecosystems have been compromised in recent years. In Turkey, HMFs constitute significant portions of Turkish forests because they cover 4% of Turkey; 15% of all Turkish forest areas are HMFs. The Eastern Black Sea region has a particular importance for HMFs due to its biological diversity and the rich presence of endemic species. This study analyzes the changes in spatial and temporal patterns of forest cover in HMF from 1973 to 2008 in the town of Maçka, which is located at the center of the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey. The spatial and temporal change patterns of land use are quantified by interpreting spatial data. Remote sensing (RS), geographical information system (GIS), and a spatial pattern analysis program for categorical maps (FRAGSTATS) have been used for data collection, analysis, and presentation. The results showed that the HMF areas had biphasic growth from 1973 to 2008. Despite a net increase of 200.6 ha in forested areas between 1984 and 2008, there was an overall decrease from 1973 to 2008. The annual percentage of forestation for the forest areas within the study period was 0.04% in Maçka. The amount of aggregated forest area fragments rose from 388 in 1973 to 711 in 2008. The increase in the HMF of Maçka can be explained to some extent by the change in the demographic structure of Maçka and its plateaus, which contributed to changes in the daily life of the population of Maçka and its villages, such as changes in annual incomes, their lifestyles, decrease in transhumance and stockbreeding, decrease in the time of dwelling on the plateaus, and changes in the traditional architectural style.

Seafloor Control on Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nghiem, S. V.; Clemente-Colon, P.; Rigor, I. G.; Hall, D. K.; Neumann, G.

2011-01-01

The seafloor has a profound role in Arctic sea ice formation and seasonal evolution. Ocean bathymetry controls the distribution and mixing of warm and cold waters, which may originate from different sources, thereby dictating the pattern of sea ice on the ocean surface. Sea ice dynamics, forced by surface winds, are also guided by seafloor features in preferential directions. Here, satellite mapping of sea ice together with buoy measurements are used to reveal the bathymetric control on sea ice growth and dynamics. Bathymetric effects on sea ice formation are clearly observed in the conformation between sea ice patterns and bathymetric characteristics in the peripheral seas. Beyond local features, bathymetric control appears over extensive ice-prone regions across the Arctic Ocean. The large-scale conformation between bathymetry and patterns of different synoptic sea ice classes, including seasonal and perennial sea ice, is identified. An implication of the bathymetric influence is that the maximum extent of the total sea ice cover is relatively stable, as observed by scatterometer data in the decade of the 2000s, while the minimum ice extent has decreased drastically. Because of the geologic control, the sea ice cover can expand only as far as it reaches the seashore, the continental shelf break, or other pronounced bathymetric features in the peripheral seas. Since the seafloor does not change significantly for decades or centuries, sea ice patterns can be recurrent around certain bathymetric features, which, once identified, may help improve short-term forecast and seasonal outlook of the sea ice cover. Moreover, the seafloor can indirectly influence cloud cover by its control on sea ice distribution, which differentially modulates the latent heat flux through ice covered and open water areas.

Environmental, land cover and land use constraints on the distributional patterns of anurans: Leptodacylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae) from Dry Chaco

PubMed Central

Medina, Regina Gabriela; Aráoz, Ezequiel

2016-01-01

Subtropical dry forests are among the most vulnerable biomes to land transformation at a global scale. Among them, the Dry Chaco suffers an accelerated change due to agriculture expansion and intensification. The Dry Chaco ecoregion is characterized by high levels of endemisms and species diversity, which are the result of a variety of climates and reliefs, allowing a wide variety of environments. The amphibian group exhibits a high richness in the Dry Chaco, which has been barely studied in relation to land cover changes. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the potential geographic distribution of 10 Leptodactylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae), which are mainly distributed within the Dry Chaco. We characterized these distributions environmentally, analyzed their overlap with land cover classes, and assessed their diversity of ecoregions. Also, we evaluated how these species potential distribution is affected by the transformation of land, and quantified the proportional area of the potential distribution in protected areas. We found that temperature seasonality is the main constraint to the occurrence of the species studied, whose main habitats are savannas, grasslands and croplands. The main threats to these species are the effects of climate change over spatial patterns of seasonality, which could affect their breeding and reproduction mode; the loss of their natural habitat; the exposure to contaminants used by intensive agriculture and their underrepresentation in protected areas. PMID:27833796

Environmental, land cover and land use constraints on the distributional patterns of anurans: Leptodacylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae) from Dry Chaco.

PubMed

Medina, Regina Gabriela; Ponssa, Maria Laura; Aráoz, Ezequiel

2016-01-01

Subtropical dry forests are among the most vulnerable biomes to land transformation at a global scale. Among them, the Dry Chaco suffers an accelerated change due to agriculture expansion and intensification. The Dry Chaco ecoregion is characterized by high levels of endemisms and species diversity, which are the result of a variety of climates and reliefs, allowing a wide variety of environments. The amphibian group exhibits a high richness in the Dry Chaco, which has been barely studied in relation to land cover changes. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the potential geographic distribution of 10 Leptodactylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae), which are mainly distributed within the Dry Chaco. We characterized these distributions environmentally, analyzed their overlap with land cover classes, and assessed their diversity of ecoregions. Also, we evaluated how these species potential distribution is affected by the transformation of land, and quantified the proportional area of the potential distribution in protected areas. We found that temperature seasonality is the main constraint to the occurrence of the species studied, whose main habitats are savannas, grasslands and croplands. The main threats to these species are the effects of climate change over spatial patterns of seasonality, which could affect their breeding and reproduction mode; the loss of their natural habitat; the exposure to contaminants used by intensive agriculture and their underrepresentation in protected areas.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a negative trend for the snow-cover melting date). Precipitation does not show a significant trend for these years, even though its inter-annual variability has been outstanding. The maximum mean annual precipitation of 906 mm/year doubles the mean precipitation, which somehow compensates for the occurrence of a sequence of dry years with a minimum of 250 mm/year. The assessment of the spatial pattern of snow cover duration shows that both the trend and the slope of the trend becomes more pronounced with elevation. At higher elevations the snow-cover duration decreased an average of 3 days from 2000-2014. This research has been funded by ECOPOTENTIAL (Improving future ecosystem benefits through Earth Observations) Horizon 2020 EU project, and Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory (LTER-site)

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Mena, Carlos F; Walsh, Stephen J; Frizzelle, Brian G; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P

2011-01-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.

Soil cover patterns and dynamics impact on GHG fluxes in RF native and man-changed ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasenev, Ivan; Nesterova, Olga

2017-04-01

The increased soil spatial-temporal variability is mutual feature for most mature natural and particularly man-changed terrestrial ecosystems in Central and Far-East regions of Russia with soil cover strongly pronounced bioclimatic zoning and landscape-geomorphologic differentiation. Soil cover patterns (SCP) detailed morphogenetic analysis and typification is useful tool for soil forming and degradation processes quantitative evaluation, land ecological state and functional quality quantitative assessment. Quantitative analysis and functional-ecological interpretation of representative SCP spatial variability is especially important for environmentally friendly and demand-driven land-use planning and decision making. The carried out 33-years region- and local-scale researches of the wide zonal-provincial set of representative ecosystems and SCP with different types and history of land-use (forest, meadow-steppe, agricultural and recreational ones) give us the interregional multi-factorial matrix of elementary soil cover patterns (ESCP) with different land-use practices and history, soil-geomorphologic features, environmental and microclimate conditions. Succession process-based analysis of modern evolution of man-changed and natural soils and ESCP essentially increases accuracy of quantitative assessments of dominant soil forming and degradation processes rate and potential, their influence on land and soil cover quality and ecosystem services. Their results allow developing the regional and landscape adapted versions of automated land evaluation systems and land-use DSS. The validation and ranging of the limiting factors of ESCP regulation and develop¬ment, ecosystem principal services (with especial attention on greenhouse gases emissions, soil carbon dynamics and sequestration potential, biodiversity and productivity, hydrological regimes and geomorphologic stabilization), land functional qualities and agroecological state have been done for dominating and most dynamical components of ESCP regional-typological forms - with application of regional/local GIS, ESCP mapping, kriging, correlation tree models and adapted to region DSS. Key-site monitoring results and regional generalized data showed 1-1.5 % Corg lost during last 50 years period, active processes of CO2, CH4 and N2O emission (2-4-time variability in frame of one farm and of one vegetation season) and humus redistribution throw soil profile and soil cover patterns. Forest-steppe Chernozem ecosystems are usually characterized by more stable SCP than forest or steppe ones. The ratio between erosive and biological losses in humus supplies is estimated as fifty-fifty with strong spatial varia¬bility due to slope and land-use parameters. These problem agroecological situations can be essentially improved by climate-smart agriculture practice development with DSS-based landscape-adaptive land-use systems and organic farming stimulation with environmentally friendly technologies, adapted to conditions of concrete agrolandscapes in Central and Far-East Russia.

[Influences of land using patterns on the anti-wind erosion of meadow grassland].

PubMed

Zhou, Yao-Zhi; Wang-Xu; Yang, Gui-Xia; Xin, Xiao-Ping

2008-05-01

In order to analyse the effects of the human disturbances to the ability of anti-wind erosion of the Hulunbuir meadow grassland, the methods of vegetation investigation and the wind tunnel experiment were made to research the changes of vegetation and the abilities of anti-wind erosion of meadow grassland under different using patterns of meadow grassland. The results indicate that, under different grazing intensities of meadow grassland, the critical wind velocity of soil erosion (v) changes with the vegetation cover according to the relation of second power function. Along with the grazing intensities increasing and the vegetation cover reducing, the velocity of soil erosion rapidly increased on the condition of similar wind velocity which is speedier than the critical wind velocity of soil erosion. When the meadow grassland is mildly grazed which the vegetation cover maintains 63%, the velocity of soil erosion is small even there is gale that the wind velocity reach 25 m/s. When the vegetation cover of meadow grassland reduced to less than 35%, the velocity of soil erosion rapidly increased with the vegetation cover's reducing on the condition of the wind velocity is among 20-25 m/s. And owing to the no-tillage cropland of meadow grassland is completely far from the protection of the vegetation, the soil wind erosion quantity achieves 682.1 kg/hm2 in a minute when the wind velocity is 25 m/s, which approaches the average formation quantity of soil (1 000 kg/hm2) in a year.

Remote Sensing Via Satellite: The Canadian Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Classen, Hans George

1974-01-01

Describes the joint effort of Canada and NASA in monitoring the Canadian environment using remote-sensing techniques. The project involves the Earth Resources Technology Satellite and has been used to observe seasonal changes, extent of snow cover, crop growth, sea ice, and land use patterns. (GS)

The role of clouds in driving North Atlantic multi-decadal climate variability in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clement, A. C.; Bellomo, K.; Murphy, L.

2013-12-01

Large scale warming and cooling periods of the North Atlantic is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The pattern of warming and cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20th century that has a characteristic spatial structure with maximum warming in the mid-latitudes and subtropics. This has been most often attributed to changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn affects poleward heat transport. A recent modeling study by Booth et al. (2012), however, suggested that aerosols can explain both the spatial pattern and temporal history of Atlantic SST through indirect effects of aerosols on cloud cover; although this idea is controversial (Zhang et al., 2013). We have found observational evidence that changes in cloud amount can drive SST changes on multi-decadal timescale. We hypothesize that a positive local feedback between SST and cloud radiative effect amplifies SST and gives rise to the observed pattern of SST change. During cool North Atlantic periods, a southward shift of the ITCZ strengthens the trade winds in the tropical North Atlantic and increases low-level cloud cover, which acts to amplify the SST cooling in the North Atlantic. During warm periods in the North Atlantic, the opposite response occurs. We are testing whether the amplitude of this feedback is realistically simulated in the CMIP5 models, and whether inter-model differences in the amplitude of the feedback can explain differences in model simulations of Atlantic multi-decadal variability.

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Landscape dynamics and different climate forcings in eastern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, N. J.; John, R.; Chen, J.

2017-12-01

Central and Eastern Mongolia have witnessed significant decreasing greening from the period 2000-2012. This decline may be partially, directly due to increased grazing pressure from livestock. Our study objective is to understand how landscape change may be altering heat fluxes and precipitation. Using the RAMS 6.0 regional climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in growing-season precipitation and atmospheric behavior under: (a) observed vegetation, and (b) aggressively reduced vegetation, to prognose likely locations and changes of the regional climate that might have resulted from land cover changes (2001-2010). We simulated a dzud/drought year (using forcing from 2001) and a wet year (using forcing from 2003). Our simulations show increased cloud cover and reduced daily temperature ranges for northeastern Mongolia where forest growth has expanded. Localized differences of 60 W/m2 of sensible heat flux were found when degraded landscape cover replaced older, more dense cover. More importantly, the overall trend towards reduced vegetation cover was responsible for higher screen height temperatures and reduced soil moisture throughout much of the domain, together with a shift of moisture southward of Inner Mongolia. Thus, even with improved chances for convection, soil moisture reductions of 5-10% would lead to overall even drier conditions. In the steppe regions around the Gobi desert, more complex patterns are evident and landscape drivers are less clear.

Land use and land cover change in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: 1975-1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parmenter, A.W.; Hansen, A.; Kennedy, R.E.; Cohen, W.; Langner, U.; Lawrence, R.; Maxwell, B.; Gallant, Alisa; Aspinall, R.

2003-01-01

Shifts in the demographic and economic character of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are driving patterns of land cover and land use change in the region. Such changes may have important consequences for ecosystem functioning. The objective of this paper is to quantify the trajectories and rates of change in land cover and use across the GYE for the period 1975-1995 using satellite imagery. Spectral and geographic variables were used as inputs to classification tree regression analysis (CART) to find "rules" which defined land use and land cover classes on the landscape. The resulting CART functions were used to map land cover and land use across seven Landsat TM scenes for 1995. We then used a thresholding technique to identify locations that differed in spectral properties between the 1995 and 1985 time periods. These "changed" locations were classified using CART functions derived from spectral and geographic data from 1985. This was similarly done for the year 1975 based on Landsat MSS data. Differences between the 1975, 1985, and 1995 maps were considered change in land cover and use. We calibrated and tested the accuracy of our models using data acquired through manual interpretation of aerial photos. Elevation and vegetative indices derived from the remotely sensed satellite imagery explained the most variance in the land use and land cover classes (-i.e., defined the "rules" most often). Overall accuracies from our study were good, ranging from 94% at the coarsest level of detail to 74% at the finest. The largest changes over the study period were the increases in burned, urban, and mixed conifer-herbaceous classes and decreases in woody deciduous, mixed woody deciduous-herbaceous, and conifer habitats. These changes have important implications for ecological function and biodiversity. The expansion of mixed conifer classes may increase fuel loads and enhance risk to the growing number of rural homes. The reduction of woody deciduous cover types is likely reducing population sizes for the numerous plant and animal species that specialize on this habitat type. Some of these species are also negatively influenced by the increase of rural homes in and near woody deciduous habitats.

Analysis of spatio-temporal land cover changes for hydrological impact assessment within the Nyando River Basin of Kenya.

PubMed

Olang, Luke Omondi; Kundu, Peter; Bauer, Thomas; Fürst, Josef

2011-08-01

The spatio-temporal changes in the land cover states of the Nyando Basin were investigated for auxiliary hydrological impact assessment. The predominant land cover types whose conversions could influence the hydrological response of the region were selected. Six Landsat images for 1973, 1986, and 2000 were processed to discern the changes based on a methodology that employs a hybrid of supervised and unsupervised classification schemes. The accuracy of the classifications were assessed using reference datasets processed in a GIS with the help of ground-based information obtained through participatory mapping techniques. To assess the possible hydrological effect of the detected changes during storm events, a physically based lumped approach for infiltration loss estimation was employed within five selected sub-basins. The results obtained indicated that forests in the basin declined by 20% while agricultural fields expanded by 16% during the entire period of study. Apparent from the land cover conversion matrices was that the majority of the forest decline was a consequence of agricultural expansion. The model results revealed decreased infiltration amounts by between 6% and 15%. The headwater regions with the vast deforestation were noted to be more vulnerable to the land cover change effects. Despite the haphazard land use patterns and uncertainties related to poor data quality for environmental monitoring and assessment, the study exposed the vast degradation and hence the need for sustainable land use planning for enhanced catchment management purposes.

Profiling agricultural land cover change in the North Central U.S. using ten years of the Cropland Data Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandborn, A.; Ebinger, L.

2016-12-01

The Cropland Data Layer (CDL), produced by the USDA/National Agricultural Statistics Service, provides annual, georeferenced crop specific land cover data over the contiguous United States. Several analyses were performed on ten years (2007-2016) of CDL data in order to visualize and quantify agricultural change over the North Central region (North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota). Crop masks were derived from the CDL and layered to produce a ten-year time stack of corn, soybeans, and spring wheat at 30m spatial resolution. Through numerous image analyses, a temporal profile of each crop type was compiled and portrayed cartographically. For each crop, analyses included calculating the mean center of crop area over the ten year sequence, identifying the first and latest year the crop was grown on each pixel, and distinguishing crop rotation patterns and replacement statistics. Results show a clear north-western expansion trend for corn and soybeans, and a western migration trend for spring wheat. While some change may be due to commonly practiced crop rotation, this analysis shows that crop footprints have extended into areas that were previously other crops, idle cropland, and pasture/rangeland. Possible factors contributing to this crop migration pattern include profit advantages of row crops over small grains, improved crop genetics, climate change, and farm management program changes. Identifying and mapping these crop planting differences will better inform agricultural best practices, help to monitor the latest crop migration patterns, and present researchers with a way to quantitatively measure and forecast future agricultural trends.

Impacts of changes in land use and fragmentation patterns on Atlantic coastal forests in northern Spain.

PubMed

Teixido, Alberto L; Quintanilla, Luis G; Carreño, Francisco; Gutiérrez, David

2010-01-01

Changes in forested landscapes may have important consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. In northern Spain, major changes in land use occurred during the second half of the 20th century, but their impacts on forests have not been quantified. We evaluated the dynamics of landscape and forest distribution patterns between 1957 and 2003 in Fragas do Eume Natural Park (northwestern Spain). We used orthoimages and a set of standard landscape metrics to determine transitions between land cover classes and to examine forest distribution patterns. Eucalypt plantations showed the greatest increase in area (197%) over time. Furthermore, transitions to eucalypt plantations were found in all major land cover classes. Forest showed a net decline of 20% in total area and represented 30% of the landscape area in 2003. Forest losses were mainly due to eucalypt plantations and the building of a water reservoir, while forest gains were due to increases in shrubland, meadows and cultivated fields which had been recolonised. Forest patch size and core area decreased, and edge length increased over time. In turn, increases were obtained in mean distance between forest patches, and in adjacency to eucalypt plantations and to a water reservoir. These results suggest an increase in forest fragmentation from 1957 to 2003, as well as a change in the nature of the habitat surrounding forest patches. This study shows that land use changes, mostly from eucalypt plantation intensification, negatively affected forested habitats, although some regeneration was ongoing through ecological succession from land abandonment. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The landscapes of West Africa—40 years of change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cotillon, Suzanne E.

2017-02-16

What has driven changes in land use and land cover in West Africa over the past 40 years? What trends or patterns can be discerned in those changes? To answer these questions, the U.S. Geological Survey West Africa Land Use Dynamics project partnered with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel and the U.S. Agency for International Development/West Africa to map land use and land cover across the region for  three time periods (years): 1975, 2000, and 2013. This cooperative effort has resulted in the publication of a 219-page atlas, “Landscapes of West Africa: A Window on a Changing World.” The atlas uses satellite imagery, maps, and pictures to tell a complex story of landscape change at regional and national scales. It includes a collection of focused studies, some of which raise cause for concern, and others that provide considerable hope.

EVALUATING ECOREGIONS FOR SAMPLING AND MAPPING LAND-COVER PATTERNS

EPA Science Inventory

Ecoregional stratification has been proposed for sampling and mapping land- cover composition and pattern over time. Using a wall-to-wall land-cover map of the United States, we evaluated geographic scales of variance for 17 landscape pattern indices, and compared stratification ...

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Quenzer, Robert; Friesz, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.

Land-Cover Trends of the Central Basin and Range Ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soulard, Christopher E.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends research project is focused on understanding the amounts, rates, trends, causes, and implications of contemporary land-use and land-cover (LU/LC) change in the United States. This project is supported by the USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). LU/LC change is a pervasive process that modifies landscape characteristics and affects a broad range of socioeconomic, biologic, and hydrologic systems. Understanding the impacts and feedbacks of LU/LC change on environmental systems requires an understanding of the rates, patterns, and driving forces of past, present, and future LU/LC change. The objectives of the Land Cover Trends project are to (1) determine and describe the amount, rates, and trends of contemporary LU/LC change by ecoregion for the period 1973-2000 for the conterminous United States, (2) document the causes, driving forces, and implications of change, and (3) synthesize individual ecoregion results into a national assessment of LU/LC change. The Land Cover Trends research team includes staff from the USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, Eastern Geographic Science Center, Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center, and the Western Geographic Science Center. Other partners include researchers at South Dakota State University, University of Southern Mississippi, and State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry. This report presents an assessment of LU/LC change in the Central Basin and Range ecoregion for the period 1973-2000. The Central Basin and Range ecoregion is one of 84 Level-III ecoregions as defined by the Environmental Protection Agency. Ecoregions have served as a spatial framework for environmental resource management and to denote areas that contain a geographically distinct assemblage of biotic and abiotic phenomena including geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The established Land Cover Trends methodology generates estimates of LU/LC change using a probability sampling approach and change-detection analysis of thematic land-cover images derived from Landsat satellite imagery.

Land cover changes assessment using object-based image analysis in the Binah River watershed (Togo and Benin)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badjana, Hèou Maléki; Helmschrot, Jörg; Selsam, Peter; Wala, Kpérkouma; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert; Afouda, Abel; Akpagana, Koffi

2015-10-01

In this study, land cover changes between 1972 and 2013 were investigated in the Binah River watershed (North of Togo and Benin) using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. Multitemporal satellite images—Landsat MSS (1972), TM (1987), and OLI-TIRS (2013)—were processed using object-based image analysis and post-classification comparison methods including landscape metrics and changes trajectories analysis. Land cover maps referring to five main land cover classes, namely, agricultural land, forest land, savannah, settlements, and water bodies, were produced for each acquisition date. The overall accuracies were 76.64% (1972), 83.52% (1987), and 88.84% (2013) with respective Kappa statistics of 0.69, 0.78, and 0.86. The assessment of the spatiotemporal pattern of land cover changes indicates that savannah, the main vegetation type, has undergone the most dominant change, decreasing from 67% of the basin area in 1972 to 56% in 1987 and 33% in 2013. At the same time, agricultural land has significantly increased from 15% in 1972 to 24% in 1987 and 43% in 2013, while some proportions of agricultural land were converted to savannah relating to fallow agriculture. In total, more than 55% of the landscape experienced changes between 1972 and 2013. These changes are primarily due to human activities and population growth. In addition, agricultural activities significantly contributed to the increase in the number of patches, degree of division, and splitting index of forest and savannah vegetations and the decrease in their effective mesh sizes. These results indicate further fragmentation of forest and savannah vegetations between 1972 and 2013. Further research is needed to quantitatively evaluate the influences of individual factors of human activities and to separate these from the impacts of climate change-driven disturbances.

High dimensional land cover inference using remotely sensed modis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glanz, Hunter S.

Image segmentation persists as a major statistical problem, with the volume and complexity of data expanding alongside new technologies. Land cover classification, one of the most studied problems in Remote Sensing, provides an important example of image segmentation whose needs transcend the choice of a particular classification method. That is, the challenges associated with land cover classification pervade the analysis process from data pre-processing to estimation of a final land cover map. Many of the same challenges also plague the task of land cover change detection. Multispectral, multitemporal data with inherent spatial relationships have hardly received adequate treatment due to the large size of the data and the presence of missing values. In this work we propose a novel, concerted application of methods which provide a unified way to estimate model parameters, impute missing data, reduce dimensionality, classify land cover, and detect land cover changes. This comprehensive analysis adopts a Bayesian approach which incorporates prior knowledge to improve the interpretability, efficiency, and versatility of land cover classification and change detection. We explore a parsimonious, parametric model that allows for a natural application of principal components analysis to isolate important spectral characteristics while preserving temporal information. Moreover, it allows us to impute missing data and estimate parameters via expectation-maximization (EM). A significant byproduct of our framework includes a suite of training data assessment tools. To classify land cover, we employ a spanning tree approximation to a lattice Potts prior to incorporate spatial relationships in a judicious way and more efficiently access the posterior distribution of pixel labels. We then achieve exact inference of the labels via the centroid estimator. To detect land cover changes, we develop a new EM algorithm based on the same parametric model. We perform simulation studies to validate our models and methods, and conduct an extensive continental scale case study using MODIS data. The results show that we successfully classify land cover and recover the spatial patterns present in large scale data. Application of our change point method to an area in the Amazon successfully identifies the progression of deforestation through portions of the region.

Snow and glacier cover assessment in the high mountains of Sikkim Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramod Krishna, Akhouri

2005-08-01

This study highlights the assessment of snow and glacier cover for possible inferences of global climate change impacts in high mountains like the Himalaya. The test catchment of the River Tista lies in the Sikkim state of the Indian Himalayan region, with steep mountains crossing nearly all ecozones, from subtropical to glacial. River flows are highly fluctuating, especially during the peak rainy season and snowmelt periods. Annual rainfall patterns are non-uniform and can cause large floods. Runoff and discharge downstream are highly dependent upon snow and glacier extent. The temporary storage of frozen water brings about a delay in seasonal runoff. Snow cover built up in the higher regions during the winter months melts in the spring-summer-autumn cycles and contributes to groundwater recharge. A spatial baseline inventory of snow cover/glacier, the permanent snowline and its short-term temporal changes in the remote high-mountain areas have been analysed using multidate Indian Remote Sensing Satellite data of 1992 to 1997. A geographic information system-based overlay has led to inferences on snow cover characteristics and the alignment, dimension, slope disposition, heights of the snout and associated features of each of the glaciers. Snow and glacier recession are to be monitored in future on a long-term basis to derive correlations with climate-change parameters.

Evaluating differences in forest fragmentation and restoration between western natural forests and southeastern plantation forests in the United States.

PubMed

Ren, Xinyu; Lv, Yingying; Li, Mingshi

2017-03-01

Changes in forest ecosystem structure and functions are considered some of the research issues in landscape ecology. In this study, advancing Forman's theory, we considered five spatially explicit processes associated with fragmentation, including perforation, dissection, subdivision, shrinkage, and attrition, and two processes associated with restoration, i.e., increment and expansion processes. Following this theory, a forest fragmentation and restoration process model that can detect the spatially explicit processes and ecological consequences of forest landscape change was developed and tested in the current analysis. Using the National Land Cover Databases (2001, 2006 and 2011), the forest fragmentation and restoration process model was applied to US western natural forests and southeastern plantation forests to quantify and classify forest patch losses into one of the four fragmentation processes (the dissection process was merged into the subdivision process) and to classify the newly gained forest patches based on the two restoration processes. At the same time, the spatio-temporal differences in fragmentation and restoration patterns and trends between natural forests and plantations were further compared. Then, through overlaying the forest fragmentation/restoration processes maps with targeting year land cover data and land ownership vectors, the results from forest fragmentation and the contributors to forest restoration in federal and nonfederal lands were identified. Results showed that, in natural forests, the forest change patches concentrated around the urban/forest, cultivated/forest, and shrubland/forest interfaces, while the patterns of plantation change patches were scattered sparsely and irregularly. The shrinkage process was the most common type in forest fragmentation, and the average size was the smallest. Expansion, the most common restoration process, was observed in both natural forests and plantations and often occurred around the previous expansion or covered the previous subdivision or shrinkage processes. The overall temporal fragmentation pattern of natural forests had a "perforation-subdivision/shrinkage-attrition" pathway, which corresponded to Forman's landscape fragmentation rule, while the plantation forests did not follow the rule strictly. The main land cover types resulted from forest fragmentation in natural forests and plantation forests were shrubland and herbaceous, mainly through subdivision and shrinkages process. The processes and effects of restoration of plantation forests were more diverse and efficient, compared to the natural forest, which were simpler with a lower regrowth rate. The fragmentation mostly occurred in nonfederal lands. In natural forests, forest fragmentation pattern differed in different land tenures, yet plantations remained the same in federal and nonfederal lands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onuoha, Hilda U.

Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests.

PubMed

Mayle, Francis E; Power, Mitchell J

2008-05-27

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

2015-01-01

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.

Ten Years of Land Cover Change on the California Coast Detected using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher S.

2013-01-01

Landsat satellite imagery was analyzed to generate a detailed record of 10 years of vegetation disturbance and regrowth for Pacific coastal areas of Marin and San Francisco Counties. The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology, a transformation of Tasseled-Cap data space, was applied to detected changes in perennial coastal shrubland, woodland, and forest cover from 1999 to 2009. Results showed several principal points of interest, within which extensive contiguous areas of similar LEDAPS vegetation change (either disturbed or restored) were detected. Regrowth areas were delineated as burned forest areas in the Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS) from the 1995 Vision Fire. LEDAPS-detected disturbance patterns on Inverness Ridge, PRNS in areas observed with dieback of tanoak and bay laurel trees was consistent with defoliation by sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum). LEDAPS regrowth pixels were detected over much of the predominantly grassland/herbaceous cover of the Olema Valley ranchland near PRNS. Extensive restoration of perennial vegetation cover on Crissy Field, Baker Beach and Lobos Creek dunes in San Francisco was identified. Based on these examples, the LEDAPS methodology will be capable of fulfilling much of the need for continual, low-cost monitoring of emerging changes to coastal ecosystems.

Characterization of post-fire surface cover, soils, and burn severity at the Cerro Grande Fire, New Mexico, using hyperspectral and multispectral remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kokaly, R.F.; Rockwell, B.W.; Haire, S.L.; King, T.V.V.

2007-01-01

Forest fires leave behind a changed ecosystem with a patchwork of surface cover that includes ash, charred organic matter, soils and soil minerals, and dead, damaged, and living vegetation. The distributions of these materials affect post-fire processes of erosion, nutrient cycling, and vegetation regrowth. We analyzed high spatial resolution (2.4??m pixel size) Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data collected over the Cerro Grande fire, to map post-fire surface cover into 10 classes, including ash, soil minerals, scorched conifer trees, and green vegetation. The Cerro Grande fire occurred near Los Alamos, New Mexico, in May 2000. The AVIRIS data were collected September 3, 2000. The surface cover map revealed complex patterns of ash, iron oxide minerals, and clay minerals in areas of complete combustion. Scorched conifer trees, which retained dry needles heated by the fire but not fully combusted by the flames, were found to cover much of the post-fire landscape. These scorched trees were found in narrow zones at the edges of completely burned areas. A surface cover map was also made using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) data, collected September 5, 2000, and a maximum likelihood, supervised classification. When compared to AVIRIS, the Landsat classification grossly overestimated cover by dry conifer and ash classes and severely underestimated soil and green vegetation cover. In a comparison of AVIRIS surface cover to the Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation (BAER) map of burn severity, the BAER high burn severity areas did not capture the variable patterns of post-fire surface cover by ash, soil, and scorched conifer trees seen in the AVIRIS map. The BAER map, derived from air photos, also did not capture the distribution of scorched trees that were observed in the AVIRIS map. Similarly, the moderate severity class of Landsat-derived burn severity maps generated from the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) calculation had low agreement with the AVIRIS classes of scorched conifer trees. Burn severity and surface cover images were found to contain complementary information, with the dNBR map presenting an image of degree of change caused by fire and the AVIRIS-derived map showing specific surface cover resulting from fire.

Climate variability rather than overstocking causes recent large scale cover changes of Tibetan pastures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehnert, Lukas; Wesche, Karsten; Trachte, Katja; Reudenbach, Christoph; Miehe, Georg; Bendix, Jörg

2016-04-01

The Tibetan Plateau has been entitled "Third-Pole-Environment" because of its outstanding importance for the climate and the hydrology in East and South-east Asia. Its climatological and hydrological influences are strongly affected by the local grassland vegetation which is supposed to be subject to ongoing degradation. On a local scale, numerous studies focused on grassland degradation of the Tibetan pastures. However, because methods and scales substantially differed among previous studies, the overall pattern of the degradation in the Tibetan Plateau is unknown. Consequently, a satellite based approach was selected to cope with the spatial limitations. Therefore, a MODIS-based vegetation cover product was developed which is fully validated against 600 in situ measurements covering a wide extent of the Tibetan Plateau. The vegetation cover as a proxy for grassland degradation is modelled with low error rates using support vector machine regressions. To identify the changes in the vegetation cover, the trends seen in the new vegetation cover product since the beginning of the new millennium were analysed. The drivers of the vegetation changes were identified by the analysis of trends of climatic variables (precipitation and 2 m air temperature) and land-use (livestock numbers) over the same time. The results reveal that - in contrast to the prevailing opinion - pasture degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is not a generally proceeding process because areas of positive and negative changes are almost equal in extent. The positive and negative vegetation changes have regionally different triggers: While, from 2000 on, the vegetation cover has increased in the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau due to increasing precipitation, it has declined in the central and western parts due to rising air temperature and declining precipitation. Increasing livestock numbers as a result of land use changes exacerbated the negative trends but, contrarily to the assumptions of former studies, were not their exclusive driver. Thus, it can be concluded that climate variability instead of overgrazing has been the primary cause for large scale vegetation cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau since the new millennium.

Potential reciprocal effect between land use / land cover change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daham, Afrah; Han, Dawei; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

2016-04-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) activity influences climate change and one way to explore climate change is to analyse the change in LULC patterns. Modelling the Spatio-temporal pattern of LULC change requires the use of satellite remote sensing data and aerial photographs with different pre-processing steps. The aim of this research is to analyse the reciprocal effects of LUCC (Land Use and Cover Change) and the climate change on each other in the study area which covers part of Bristol, South Gloucestershire, Bath and Somerset in England for the period (1975-2015). LUCC is assessed using remote sensing data. Three sets of remotely sensed data, LanSAT-1 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data obtained in (1975 and 1976), LanSAT-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data obtained in (1984 and 1997), and LandSAT-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) acquired in (2003 and 2015), with a time span of forty years were used in the study. One of the most common problems in the satellite images is the presence of cloud covers. In this study, the cloud cover problem is handled using a novel algorithm, which is capable of reducing the cloud coverage in the classified images significantly. This study also examines a suite of possible photogrammetry techniques applicable to detect the change in LULC. At the moment photogrammertic techniques are used to derive the ground truth for supervised classification from the high resolution aerial photos which were provided by Ordnance Survey (contract number: 240215) and global mapper for the years in (2001 and 2014). After obtaining the classified images almost free of clouds, accuracy assessment is implemented with the derived classified images using confusion matrix at some ground truth points. Eight classes (Improved grassland, Built up areas and gardens, Arable and horticulture, Broad-leaved / mixed woodland, Coniferous woodland, Oceanic seas, Standing open water and reservoir, and Mountain; heath; bog) have been classified in the chosen study area. Also, CORINE Land Cover (CLC) maps are used to study the environmental changes and to validate the obtained maps from remote sensing and photogrammetry data. On climate change, different sources of climate data were used in this research. Three rainfall datasets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Gridded Estimates of daily Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) in the study area were compared at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The dataset were available for the operational period 1975-2015. The historically observed rainfall datasets for the study area were obtained from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS) Land and Marine downloaded through the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) website, which includes the rainfall and the temperature, are collected from all the weather stations in the UK in the last 40 years. Only four gauging stations were available to represent the spatial variability of rainfall within and around the study area. The monthly rainfall time series were evaluated against a dataset based on four rain gauges. These data are processed and analysed statistically to find the changes in climate of the study area in the last 40 years. The potential reciprocal effect between the LULC change and the climate change is done by finding the correlation between LUCC and the variables Rainfall and Temperature. In addition, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to study the impact of LULC change on the water system and climate.

[Effects of mulching patterns on soil water, broomcorn millet growth, photosynthetic charac- teristics and yield in the dryland of Loess Plateau in China].

PubMed

Su, Wang; Zhang, Yan-Ping; Qu, Yang; Li, Cui; Miao, Jia-Yuan; Gao, Xiao-Li; Liu, Jian-Hua; Feng, Bai-Li

2014-11-01

The objective of this study was to explore the effects of mulching patterns on soil water, growth, photosynthetic characteristics, grain yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of broomcorn millet in the dryland of Loess Plateau in China. In a three-year field experiment from 2011 to 2013, we compared four different mulching patterns with traditional plat planting (no mulching) as the control (CK). The mulching patterns included W ridge covered with common plastic film + intredune covered with straw (SG), common ridge covered with common plastic film + intredune covered with straw (LM), double ridges covered with common plastic film + intredune covered with straw (QM), and the traditional plat planting covered with straw (JG). The results showed that the soil water storage in 0-100 cm layer was significantly higher in all mulching patterns than in CK, particularly in SG then followed by LM, QM and JG, and the differences among the mulching patterns reached a significant level at the different growth stages of broomcorn millet. Among all mulching patterns, SG had the greatest effect on the growth and photosynthesis of broomcorn millet, respectively increasing the yield and WUE by 55.9% and 64.9% over CK, and the differences among the mulching patterns also reached a significant level. Therefore, SG was recommended as an efficient planting pattern for broomcorn millet production in the dryland of Loess Plateau in China.

Analyzing landscape changes in the Bafa Lake Nature Park of Turkey using remote sensing and landscape structure metrics.

PubMed

Esbah, Hayriye; Deniz, Bulent; Kara, Baris; Kesgin, Birsen

2010-06-01

Bafa Lake Nature Park is one of Turkey's most important legally protected areas. This study aimed at analyzing spatial change in the park environment by using object-based classification technique and landscape structure metrics. SPOT 2X (1994) and ASTER (2005) images are the primary research materials. Results show that artificial surfaces, low maqui, garrigue, and moderately high maqui covers have increased and coniferous forests, arable lands, permanent crop, and high maqui covers have decreased; coniferous forest, high maqui, grassland, and saline areas are in a disappearance stage of the land transformation; and the landscape pattern is more fragmented outside the park boundaries. The management actions should support ongoing vegetation regeneration, mitigate transformation of vegetation structure to less dense and discontinuous cover, control the dynamics at the agricultural-natural landscape interface, and concentrate on relatively low but steady increase of artificial surfaces.

Relationship Between Landcover Pattern and Surface Net Radiation in AN Coastal City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Liu, L.; Liu, X.; Zhao, Y.

2016-06-01

Taking Xiamen city as the study area this research first retrieved surface net radiation using meteorological data and Landsat 5 TM images of the four seasons in the year 2009. Meanwhile the 65 different landscape metrics of each analysis unit were acquired using landscape analysis method. Then the most effective landscape metrics affecting surface net radiation were determined by correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, stepwise regression method, etc. At both class and landscape levels, this paper comprehensively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of the surface net radiation as well as the effects of land cover pattern on it in Xiamen from a multi-seasonal perspective. The results showed that the spatial composition of land cover pattern shows significant influence on surface net radiation while the spatial allocation of land cover pattern does not. The proportions of bare land and forest land are effective and important factors which affect the changes of surface net radiation all the year round. Moreover, the proportion of forest land is more capable for explaining surface net radiation than the proportion of bare land. So the proportion of forest land is the most important and continuously effective factor which affects and explains the cross-seasonal differences of surface net radiation. This study is helpful in exploring the formation and evolution mechanism of urban heat island. It also gave theoretical hints and realistic guidance for urban planning and sustainable development.

Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II—contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.

2018-04-01

Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

MULTI-TEMPORAL LAND USE GENERATION FOR THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

EPA Science Inventory

A set of backcast and forecast land use maps of the Ohio River Basin (ORB) was developed that could be used to assess the spatial-temporal patterns of land use/land cover (LULC) change in this important basin. This approach was taken to facilitate assessment of integrated sustain...

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change around Mobile Bay, Alabama from 1974-2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, Jean; Spruce, Joseph P.; Swann, Roberta; Smooth, James C.

2009-01-01

This document summarizes the major findings of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project led by NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) in conjunction with a regional collaboration network of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA). NASA researchers processed and analyzed multi-temporal Landsat data to assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, AL between 1974 and 2008. Our goal was to create satellite-based LULC data products using methods that could be transferable to other coastal areas of concern within the Gulf of Mexico. The Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MBNEP) is the primary end-user, however, several other state and local groups may benefit from the project s data products that will be available through NOAA-NCDDC s Regional Ecosystem Data Management program. Mobile Bay is a critical ecologic and economic region in the Gulf of Mexico and to the entire country. Mobile Bay was designated as an estuary of national significance in 1996. This estuary receives the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the United States. It provides vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreationally important fish species. It has exceptional aquatic and terrestrial bio-diversity, however, its estuary health is influenced by changing LULC patterns, such as urbanization. Mobile and Baldwin counties have experienced a population growth of 1.1% and 20.5% from 2000-2006. Urban expansion and population growth are likely to accelerate with the construction and operation of the ThyssenKrupp steel mill in the northeast portion of Mobile County. Land-use and land-cover change can negatively impact Gulf coast water quality and ecological resources. The conversion of forest to urban cover types impacts the carbon cycle and increases the freshwater and sediment in coastal waters. Increased freshwater runoff decreases salinity and increases the turbidity of coastal waters, thus impacting the growth potential of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), which is critical nursing ground for many Gulf fish species. A survey of Mobile Bay SAV showed widespread decreases since the 1940s. Prior to our project, coastal environmental managers in Baldwin and Mobile counties needed more understanding of the historical LULC for properly assessing the impacts of urbanization. In particular, more information on the location and extent of changing urbanization LULC patterns was needed to aid LULC planning and to assess predictions of future LULC patterns. Our products will assist the coastal environmental managers and land-use planners in making better community growth planning decisions. Our project also will help to establish a historical baseline of LULC distributions, which is a fundamental need in any stewardship plan. The primary research objective of our project was to produce historic and current geospatial LULC change products across a 34-year time frame. A multi-decadal coastal LULC change product was the major project deliverable. The geographic extent and nature of change was quantified and assessed for the upland herbaceous, barren, open water, urban, upland forest, woody wetland, and non-woody wetlanddominated land cover types. We focused on regional analyses of decadal-scale urban expansion and watershed-scaled analyses of LULC change for multiple areas of concern to the Mobile Bay NEP (Figure A). We used the following dates to derive LULC classification products from Landsat data: 1974, 1979, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2005, and 2008. We assessed the accuracy of our products using randomly sampled locations and digital geospatial reference data including field survey data, high resolution orthorectified aerial photography, high resolution multispectral and panchromatic satellite data displays (from QuickBird and Corona sensors), digital elevation model data, and National Wetlands Inventory wetland cover type data. NOAA s Coastal Change Assessment Program s (C-CAP) and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) procts were used for qualitative comparison in assessing map accuracy. We calculated an average overall classification accuracy of 87% with similar overall accuracies for the older (MSS) and newer (TM and ETM) Landsat LULC products.

Modelling landscape dynamics with LST in protected areas of Western Ghats, Karnataka.

PubMed

Ramachandra, T V; Bharath, Setturu; Gupta, Nimish

2018-01-15

Forest ecosystems sustain biota on the earth as they are habitat to diverse biotic species, arrests soil erosion, play a crucial role in water cycle, sequester carbon, and helps in mitigating the impacts of global warming. Large scale land use land cover (LULC) change leading to deforestation is one of the drivers of global climate changes and alteration of biogeochemical cycles with significant consequences in ecosystem services and biodiversity. This has necessitated the investigation of LULC by mapping, monitoring and modelling spatio-temporal patterns and evaluating these in the context of human-environment interactions. The current work investigates LULC changes with temperature dynamics of select protected areas in Western Ghats. The land use analyses reveal changes in the forest cover across Kudremukh National Park (KNP), Rajiv Gandhi Tiger Reserve (RTR), Bandipur Tiger Reserve (BTR). KNP region has lost evergreen forest cover during 1973-2016 from 33.46 to 27.22%, while BTR lost deciduous cover from 61.69 to 47.3% due to mining, horticulture plantations, human habitations, etc. The LST increase has impacted regeneration of species with the induced water stress, etc. CA-Markov modelling was used for forecasting the likely land uses in 2026 and validation was done through Kappa indices. Results highlight decline of evergreen cover in KNP (9%) and deciduous cover in RTR (2%) followed by BTR (3%) with further expansion of plantations, which will impact biodiversity, hydrology and ecology. Insights of LULC dynamics help natural resource managers in evolving appropriate strategies to ensure conservation of threatened biota in Western Ghats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Debris supply to mountain glaciers and how it effects their sensitivity to climate change - A case study from the Chhota Shigri Glacier, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherler, D.; Egholm, D. L.

2017-12-01

Debris-covered glaciers are widespread in the Himalaya and other steep mountain ranges. They testify to active erosion of ice-free bedrock hillslopes that tower above valley glaciers, sometimes more than a kilometer high. It is well known that supraglacial debris cover significantly reduces surface ablation rates and thereby influences glacial mass balances and runoff. However, the dynamic evolution of debris cover along with climatic and topographic changes is poorly understood. Here, we present ice-free hillslope erosion rates derived from 10Be concentrations in the ablation-dominated medial moraine of the Chhota Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya. We combine our empirical, field-based approach with a numerical model of frost-related sediment production and glacial debris transport to (1) assess patterns of ice-free hillslope erosion that are permissible with observed patterns of debris cover, and (2) explore the coupled response of glaciers and ice-free hillslopes to climatic changes. Measured 10Be concentrations increase downglacier from 3×104 to 6×104 atoms (g quartz) -1, yielding hillslope erosion rates of 1.3-0.6 mm yr-1. The accumulation of 10Be during debris residence on the ice surface can only account for a small fraction (<20%) of the downglacier increase. Other potential explanations include (1) heterogeneous source areas with different average productions rates, and (2) homogeneous source areas but temporally variable erosion rates. We used the 10Be-derived hillslope erosion rates to define debris supply rates from ice-free bedrock hillslopes in the numerical ice and landscape evolution model iSOSIA. Based on available mass balance and ice thickness data, the calibrated model reproduces the medial moraine of the Chhota Shogri Glacier quite well, although uncertainties exist due to the transient disequilibrium of the glacier, i.e., the current debris cover was fed into the glacier during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus under different boundary conditions. We currently perform transient experiments during warming and cooling periods for testing models of frost-related and temperature-sensitive debris production, and for assessing the coupled sensitivity of hillslopes and glaciers to climate change.

The National Land Cover Database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Homer, Collin G.; Fry, Joyce A.; Barnes, Christopher A.

2012-01-01

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) serves as the definitive Landsat-based, 30-meter resolution, land cover database for the Nation. NLCD provides spatial reference and descriptive data for characteristics of the land surface such as thematic class (for example, urban, agriculture, and forest), percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy cover. NLCD supports a wide variety of Federal, State, local, and nongovernmental applications that seek to assess ecosystem status and health, understand the spatial patterns of biodiversity, predict effects of climate change, and develop land management policy. NLCD products are created by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium, a partnership of Federal agencies led by the U.S. Geological Survey. All NLCD data products are available for download at no charge to the public from the MRLC Web site: http://www.mrlc.gov.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gremer, Jennifer; Bradford, John B.; Munson, Seth M.; Duniway, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20 to 56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40 to 60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Gremer, Jennifer R; Bradford, John B; Munson, Seth M; Duniway, Michael C

2015-11-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20-56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40-60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Pluri-decadal (1955-2014) evolution of glacier-rock glacier transitional landforms in the central Andes of Chile (30-33° S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Sébastien; Kinnard, Christophe

2017-08-01

Three glacier-rock glacier transitional landforms in the central Andes of Chile are investigated over the last decades in order to highlight and question the significance of their landscape and flow dynamics. Historical (1955-2000) aerial photos and contemporary (> 2000) Geoeye satellite images were used together with common processing operations, including imagery orthorectification, digital elevation model generation, and image feature tracking. At each site, the rock glacier morphology area, thermokarst area, elevation changes, and horizontal surface displacements were mapped. The evolution of the landforms over the study period is remarkable, with rapid landscape changes, particularly an expansion of rock glacier morphology areas. Elevation changes were heterogeneous, especially in debris-covered glacier areas with large heaving or lowering up to more than ±1 m yr-1. The use of image feature tracking highlighted spatially coherent flow vector patterns over rock glacier areas and, at two of the three sites, their expansion over the studied period; debris-covered glacier areas are characterized by a lack of movement detection and/or chaotic displacement patterns reflecting thermokarst degradation; mean landform displacement speeds ranged between 0.50 and 1.10 m yr-1 and exhibited a decreasing trend over the studied period. One important highlight of this study is that, especially in persisting cold conditions, rock glaciers can develop upward at the expense of debris-covered glaciers. Two of the studied landforms initially (prior to the study period) developed from an alternation between glacial advances and rock glacier development phases. The other landform is a small debris-covered glacier having evolved into a rock glacier over the last half-century. Based on these results it is proposed that morphological and dynamical interactions between glaciers and permafrost and their resulting hybrid landscapes may enhance the resilience of the mountain cryosphere against climate change.

Evaluating ecoregions for sampling and mapping land-cover patterns

Treesearch

Kurt H. Riitters; James D. Wickham; Timothy G. Wade

2006-01-01

Ecoregional stratification has been proposed for sampling and mapping land-cover composition and pattern over time. Using a wall-to-wall land-cover map of the United States, we evaluated geographic scales of variance for nine landscapelevel and eight forest pattern indices, and compared stratification by ecoregions, administrative units, and watersheds. Ecoregions...

Assessing long-term variations in sagebrush habitat: characterization of spatial extents and distribution patterns using multi-temporal satellite remote-sensing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2012-01-01

An approach that can generate sagebrush habitat change estimates for monitoring large-area sagebrush ecosystems has been developed and tested in southwestern Wyoming, USA. This prototype method uses a satellite-based image change detection algorithm and regression models to estimate sub-pixel percentage cover for five sagebrush habitat components: bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush and shrub. Landsat images from three different months in 1988, 1996 and 2006 were selected to identify potential landscape change during these time periods using change vector (CV) analysis incorporated with an image normalization algorithm. Regression tree (RT) models were used to estimate percentage cover for five components on all change areas identified in 1988 and 1996, using unchanged 2006 baseline data as training for both estimates. Over the entire study area (24 950 km2), a net increase of 98.83 km2, or 0.7%, for bare ground was measured between 1988 and 2006. Over the same period, the other four components had net losses of 20.17 km2, or 0.6%, for herbaceous vegetation; 30.16 km2, or 0.7%, for litter; 32.81 km2, or 1.5%, for sagebrush; and 33.34 km2, or 1.2%, for shrubs. The overall accuracy for shrub vegetation change between 1988 and 2006 was 89.56%. Change patterns within sagebrush habitat components differ spatially and quantitatively from each other, potentially indicating unique responses by these components to disturbances imposed upon them.

Analyzing the effects of urban expansion on land surface temperature patterns by landscape metrics: a case study of Isfahan city, Iran.

PubMed

Madanian, Maliheh; Soffianian, Ali Reza; Koupai, Saeid Soltani; Pourmanafi, Saeid; Momeni, Mehdi

2018-03-03

Urban expansion can cause extensive changes in land use and land cover (LULC), leading to changes in temperature conditions. Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the key parameters that should be considered in the study of urban temperature conditions. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to investigate the effects of changes in LULC due to the expansion of the city of Isfahan on LST using landscape metrics. To this aim, two Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images, which had been acquired, respectively, on August 2, 1985, and July 4, 2015, were used. The support vector machine method was then used to classify the images. The results showed that Isfahan city had been encountered with an increase of impervious surfaces; in fact, this class covered 15% of the total area in 1985, while this value had been increased to 30% in 2015. Then LST zoning maps were created, indicating that the bare land and impervious surfaces categories were dominant in high temperature zones, while in the zones where water was present or NDVI was high, LST was low. Then, the landscape metrics in each of the LST zones were analyzed in relation to the LULC changes, showing that LULC changes due to urban expansion changed such landscape properties as the percentage of landscape, patch density, large patch index, and aggregation index. This information could be beneficial for urban planners to monitor and manage changes in the LULC patterns.

Landscape Fragmentation as a Risk Factor for Buruli Ulcer Disease in Ghana

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Smithwick, Erica A. H.

2016-01-01

Land cover and its change have been linked to Buruli ulcer (BU), a rapidly emerging tropical disease. However, it is unknown whether landscape structure affects the disease prevalence. To examine the association between landscape pattern and BU presence, we obtained land cover information for 20 villages in southwestern Ghana from high resolution satellite images, and analyzed the landscape pattern surrounding each village. Eight landscape metrics indicated that landscape patterns between BU case and reference villages were different (P < 0.05) at the broad spatial extent examined (4 km). The logistic regression models showed that landscape fragmentation and diversity indices were positively associated with BU presence in a village. Specifically, for each increase in patch density and edge density by 100 units, the likelihood of BU presence in a village increased 2.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36–4.61) and 4.18 (95% CI = 1.63–10.76) times, respectively. The results suggest that increased landscape fragmentation may pose a risk to the emergence of BU. PMID:27185767

Status and trends of land change in the Eastern United States—1973 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sayler, Kristi L.; Acevedo, William; Taylor, Janis

2016-09-28

PrefaceU.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–D is the fourth in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Eastern United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and C provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Midwest–South Central United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation.Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Eastern United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Eastern United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research.This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov.

Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Acevedo, William

2012-12-05

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–A is the first in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Western United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes B, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Great Plains, the Midwest–South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Western United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Western United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov.

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

PubMed Central

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2008-01-01

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended ‘north–south’ transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change. PMID:18302999

Monitoring urban expansion and its effects on land use and land cover changes in Guangzhou city, China.

PubMed

Wu, Yanyan; Li, Shuyuan; Yu, Shixiao

2016-01-01

There are widespread concerns about urban sprawl in China. In response, modeling and assessing urban expansion and subsequent land use and land cover (LULC) changes have become important approaches to support decisions about appropriate development and land resource use. Guangzhou, a major metropolitan city in South China, has experienced rapid urbanization and great economic growth in the past few decades. This study applied a series of Landsat images to assess the urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes over 35 years, from 1979 to 2013. From start to end, urban expansion increased by 1512.24 km(2) with an annual growth rate of 11.25 %. There were four stages of urban growth: low rates from 1979 to 1990, increased rates from 1990 to 2001, high rates from 2001 to 2009, and steady increased rates from 2009 to 2013. There were also three different urban growth types in these different stages: edge-expansion growth, infilling growth, and spontaneous growth. Other land cover, such as cropland, forest, and mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation, were severely impacted as a result. To analyze these changes, we used landscape metrics to characterize the changes in the spatial patterns across the Guangzhou landscape and the impacts of urban growth on other types of land cover. The significant changes in LULC and urban expansion were highly correlated with economic development, population growth, technical progress, policy elements, and other similar indexes.

Understanding patterns of land-cover change in the Brazilian Cerrado from 2000 to 2015.

PubMed

Espírito-Santo, Mário M; Leite, Marcos E; Silva, Jhonathan O; Barbosa, Rômulo S; Rocha, André M; Anaya, Felisa C; Dupin, Mariana G V

2016-09-19

Clearing tropical vegetation impacts biodiversity, the provision of ecosystem services, and thus ultimately human welfare. We quantified changes in land cover from 2000 to 2015 across the Cerrado biome of northern Minas Gerais state, Brazil. We assessed the potential biophysical and socio-economic drivers of the loss of Cerrado, natural regeneration and net cover change at the municipality level. Further, we evaluated correlations between these land change variables and indicators of human welfare. We detected extensive land-cover changes in the study area, with the conversion of 23 446 km(2) and the natural regeneration of 13 926 km(2), resulting in a net loss of 9520 km(2) The annual net loss (-1.2% per year) of the cover of Cerrado is higher than that reported for the whole biome in similar periods. We argue that environmental and economic variables interact to underpin rates of conversion of Cerrado, most severely affecting more humid Cerrado lowlands. While rates of Cerrado regeneration are important for conservation strategies of the remaining biome, their integrity must be investigated given the likelihood of encroachment. Given the high frequency of land abandonment in tropical regions, secondary vegetation is fundamental to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, the impacts of Cerrado conversion on human welfare likely vary from local to regional scales, making it difficult to elaborate land-use policies based solely on socio-economic indicators.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Land change in eastern Mediterranean wood-pasture landscapes: the case of deciduous oak woodlands in Lesvos (Greece).

PubMed

Schaich, Harald; Kizos, Thanasis; Schneider, Stefan; Plieninger, Tobias

2015-07-01

In Mediterranean Europe, wood-pasture landscapes with oak woodlands as emblematic ecosystems are undergoing rapid land-use change, which may threaten their legacy as hotspots of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural heritage. The objective of this study was to quantify land cover changes and transitions as well as the dynamics of oak woodland patterns and densities over 50 years in two municipalities at the center and edges of Quercus macrolepis distribution in Northern Lesvos (Greece). We used aerial photographs from 1960 and WorldView-2 satellite images from 2010 to process land cover maps and metrics, and to calculate oak canopy cover with a point-grid sampling approach. Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover change were generally high--especially between oak woodlands and grass- and shrub-lands, resulting in a more heterogeneous and fragmented landscape in 2010. Surprisingly, oak woodland area remained stable with marginal losses in one study site and gains in the other one. Oak canopy cover increased by 8 and 9%. Spatial hotspots of change were mountainous and peripheral phrygana areas with expanding oak stands, as well as river valleys and near urban areas with expanding olive groves and grass- and shrublands in former complex cultivation and oak stands. We conclude that the parallel processes of abandonment of crop cultivation and intensification of livestock grazing have been less detrimental to oak woodlands than supposed. To ensure long-term persistence of oak woodlands in the face of ongoing rural depopulation and land-use intensification, environmental and agricultural policies should better address their specificities as anthropogenic habitats.

Understanding patterns of land-cover change in the Brazilian Cerrado from 2000 to 2015

PubMed Central

Leite, Marcos E.; Silva, Jhonathan O.; Barbosa, Rômulo S.; Rocha, André M.; Anaya, Felisa C.; Dupin, Mariana G. V.

2016-01-01

Clearing tropical vegetation impacts biodiversity, the provision of ecosystem services, and thus ultimately human welfare. We quantified changes in land cover from 2000 to 2015 across the Cerrado biome of northern Minas Gerais state, Brazil. We assessed the potential biophysical and socio-economic drivers of the loss of Cerrado, natural regeneration and net cover change at the municipality level. Further, we evaluated correlations between these land change variables and indicators of human welfare. We detected extensive land-cover changes in the study area, with the conversion of 23 446 km2 and the natural regeneration of 13 926 km2, resulting in a net loss of 9520 km2. The annual net loss (−1.2% per year) of the cover of Cerrado is higher than that reported for the whole biome in similar periods. We argue that environmental and economic variables interact to underpin rates of conversion of Cerrado, most severely affecting more humid Cerrado lowlands. While rates of Cerrado regeneration are important for conservation strategies of the remaining biome, their integrity must be investigated given the likelihood of encroachment. Given the high frequency of land abandonment in tropical regions, secondary vegetation is fundamental to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, the impacts of Cerrado conversion on human welfare likely vary from local to regional scales, making it difficult to elaborate land-use policies based solely on socio-economic indicators. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502383

Land Change in Eastern Mediterranean Wood-Pasture Landscapes: The Case of Deciduous Oak Woodlands in Lesvos (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaich, Harald; Kizos, Thanasis; Schneider, Stefan; Plieninger, Tobias

2015-07-01

In Mediterranean Europe, wood-pasture landscapes with oak woodlands as emblematic ecosystems are undergoing rapid land-use change, which may threaten their legacy as hotspots of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural heritage. The objective of this study was to quantify land cover changes and transitions as well as the dynamics of oak woodland patterns and densities over 50 years in two municipalities at the center and edges of Quercus macrolepis distribution in Northern Lesvos (Greece). We used aerial photographs from 1960 and WorldView-2 satellite images from 2010 to process land cover maps and metrics, and to calculate oak canopy cover with a point-grid sampling approach. Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover change were generally high—especially between oak woodlands and grass- and shrub-lands, resulting in a more heterogeneous and fragmented landscape in 2010. Surprisingly, oak woodland area remained stable with marginal losses in one study site and gains in the other one. Oak canopy cover increased by 8 and 9 %. Spatial hotspots of change were mountainous and peripheral phrygana areas with expanding oak stands, as well as river valleys and near urban areas with expanding olive groves and grass- and shrublands in former complex cultivation and oak stands. We conclude that the parallel processes of abandonment of crop cultivation and intensification of livestock grazing have been less detrimental to oak woodlands than supposed. To ensure long-term persistence of oak woodlands in the face of ongoing rural depopulation and land-use intensification, environmental and agricultural policies should better address their specificities as anthropogenic habitats.

Effects of road network on diversiform forest cover changes in the highest coverage region in China: An analysis of sampling strategies.

PubMed

Hu, Xisheng; Wu, Zhilong; Wu, Chengzhen; Ye, Limin; Lan, Chaofeng; Tang, Kun; Xu, Lu; Qiu, Rongzu

2016-09-15

Forest cover changes are of global concern due to their roles in global warming and biodiversity. However, many previous studies have ignored the fact that forest loss and forest gain are different processes that may respond to distinct factors by stressing forest loss more than gain or viewing forest cover change as a whole. It behooves us to carefully examine the patterns and drivers of the change by subdividing it into several categories. Our study includes areas of forest loss (4.8% of the study area), forest gain (1.3% of the study area) and forest loss and gain (2.0% of the study area) from 2000 to 2012 in Fujian Province, China. In the study area, approximately 65% and 90% of these changes occurred within 2000m of the nearest road and under road densities of 0.6km/km(2), respectively. We compared two sampling techniques (systematic sampling and random sampling) and four intensities for each technique to investigate the driving patterns underlying the changes using multinomial logistic regression. The results indicated the lack of pronounced differences in the regressions between the two sampling designs, although the sample size had a great impact on the regression outcome. The application of multi-model inference indicated that the low level road density had a negative significant association with forest loss and forest loss and gain, the expressway density had a positive significant impact on forest loss, and the road network was insignificantly related to forest gain. The model including socioeconomic and biophysical variables illuminated potentially different predictors of the different forest change categories. Moreover, the multiple comparisons tested by Fisher's least significant difference (LSD) were a good compensation for the multinomial logistic model to enrich the interpretation of the regression results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recognizing lexical and semantic change patterns in evolving life science ontologies to inform mapping adaptation.

PubMed

Dos Reis, Julio Cesar; Dinh, Duy; Da Silveira, Marcos; Pruski, Cédric; Reynaud-Delaître, Chantal

2015-03-01

Mappings established between life science ontologies require significant efforts to maintain them up to date due to the size and frequent evolution of these ontologies. In consequence, automatic methods for applying modifications on mappings are highly demanded. The accuracy of such methods relies on the available description about the evolution of ontologies, especially regarding concepts involved in mappings. However, from one ontology version to another, a further understanding of ontology changes relevant for supporting mapping adaptation is typically lacking. This research work defines a set of change patterns at the level of concept attributes, and proposes original methods to automatically recognize instances of these patterns based on the similarity between attributes denoting the evolving concepts. This investigation evaluates the benefits of the proposed methods and the influence of the recognized change patterns to select the strategies for mapping adaptation. The summary of the findings is as follows: (1) the Precision (>60%) and Recall (>35%) achieved by comparing manually identified change patterns with the automatic ones; (2) a set of potential impact of recognized change patterns on the way mappings is adapted. We found that the detected correlations cover ∼66% of the mapping adaptation actions with a positive impact; and (3) the influence of the similarity coefficient calculated between concept attributes on the performance of the recognition algorithms. The experimental evaluations conducted with real life science ontologies showed the effectiveness of our approach to accurately characterize ontology evolution at the level of concept attributes. This investigation confirmed the relevance of the proposed change patterns to support decisions on mapping adaptation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying changes in flooding and habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia) caused by water infrastructure development and climate change in the Mekong Basin.

PubMed

Arias, Mauricio E; Cochrane, Thomas A; Piman, Thanapon; Kummu, Matti; Caruso, Brian S; Killeen, Timothy J

2012-12-15

The economic value of the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain to Cambodia is arguably among the highest provided to a nation by a single ecosystem around the world. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the flood pulse of the Tonle Sap Lake in the foreseeable future. This paper presents research conducted to determine how the historical flooding regime, together with human action, influenced landscape patterns of habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake, and how these habitats might shift as a result of hydrological changes. Maps of water depth, annual flood duration, and flood frequency were created for recent historical hydrological conditions and for simulated future scenarios of water infrastructure development and climate change. Relationships were then established between the historical flood maps and land cover, and these were subsequently applied to assess potential changes to habitat cover in future decades. Five habitat groups were clearly distinguishable based on flood regime, physiognomic patterns, and human activity: (1) Open water, flooded for 12 months in an average hydrological year; (2) Gallery forest, with flood duration of 9 months annually; (3) Seasonally flooded habitats, flooded 5-8 months and dominated by shrublands and grasslands; (4) transitional habitats, flooded 1-5 months and dominated by abandoned agricultural fields, receding rice/floating rice, and lowland grasslands; and (5) Rainfed habitats, flooded up to 1 month and consisting mainly of wet season rice fields and village crops. It was found that water infrastructure development could increase the area of open water (+18 to +21%) and the area of rainfed habitats (+10 to +14%), while reducing the area covered with seasonally flooded habitats (-13 to -22%) and gallery forest (-75 to -83%). Habitat cover shifts as a result of climate change include a net increase of open water (2-21%), as well as a reduction of rainfed habitats by 2-5% and seasonally flooded habitats by 5-11%. Findings from this study will help guide on-going and future conservation and restoration efforts throughout this unique and critical ecosystem. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting Changes of Thermal Environment over the Bohai Coastal Region by Spectral Change Vector Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Jia, G.

2009-12-01

Change vector analysis (CVA) is an effective approach for detecting and characterizing land-cover change by comparing pairs of multi-spectral and multi-temporal datasets over certain area derived from various satellite platforms. NDVI is considered as an effective detector for biophysical changes due to its sensitivity to red and near infrared signals, while land surface temperature (LST) is considered as a valuable indicator for changes of ground thermal conditions. Here we try to apply CVA over satellite derived LST datasets to detect changes of land surface thermal properties parallel to climate change and anthropogenic influence in a city cluster since 2001. In this study, monthly land surface temperature datasets from 2001-2008 derived from MODIS collection 5 were used to examine change pattern of thermal environment over the Bohai coastal region by using spectral change vector analysis. The results from principle component analysis (PCA) for LST show that the PC 1-3 contain over 80% information on monthly variations and these PCA components represent the main processes of land thermal environment change over the study area. Time series of CVA magnitude combined with land cover information show that greatest change occurred in urban and heavily populated area, featured with expansion of urban heat island, while moderate change appeared in grassland area in the north. However few changes were observed over large plain area and forest area. Strong signals also are related to economy level and especially the events of surface cover change, such as emergence of railway and port. Two main processes were also noticed about the changes of thermal environment. First, weak signal was detected in mostly natural area influenced by interannual climate change in temperate broadleaf forest area. Second, land surface temperature changes were controlled by human activities as 1) moderate change of LST happened in grassland influenced by grazing and 2) urban heat island was intensifier in major cities, such as Beijing and Tianjin. Further, the continual drier climate combined with human actions over past fifties years have intensified land thermal pattern change and the continuation will be an important aspects to understand land surface processes and local climate change. Land surface temperature trends from 2000-2008 over the Bohai coastal region

Our Globally Changing Climate. Chapter 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Easterling, D. R.; Hayhoe, K.; Knutson, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Mears, C.; Sweet, W. V.;

Topographic Patterns of Mortality and Succession in the Alpine Treeline Ecotone Suggest Hydrologic Controls on Post-Fire Tree Establishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, D. R.; Hopkinson, C.

2017-12-01

Alpine Treeline Ecotone (ATE), the transition zone between closed canopy forest and alpine tundra, is a prominent vegetation pattern in mountain regions. At continental scales, the elevation of ATE is negatively correlated with latitude and is generally explained by thermal limitations. However, at landscape scales, precipitation and moisture regimes can suppress ATE elevation below thermal limits, causing variability and patterning in ATE position. Recent studies have investigated the relative effects of hydroclimatic variables on ATE position at multiple scales, but less attention has been given to interactions between hydroclimatic variables and disturbance agents, such as fire. Observing change in the ATE at sufficient spatial resolution and temporal extent to identify correlations between topographic variables and disturbance agents has proved challenging. Recent advances in monoplotting have enabled the extraction of canopy cover information from oblique photography, at a resolution of 20 m. Using airborne lidar and repeat photography from the Mountain Legacy Project, we observed canopy cover change in West Castle Watershed (Alberta, Canada; 103 km2; 49.3° N, 114.4° W) over a 92-year period (i.e. 1914-2006). Two wildfires, occurring 1934 and 1936, affected 63% of the watershed area, providing an opportunity to contrast topographic patterns of mortality and succession in the ATE, while factoring by exposure to fire. Slope aspect was a strong predictor of mortality and succession: the frequency of mortality was four times higher in fire-exposed areas, with 72% of all mortality occurring on south- and east-facing slope aspects; the frequency of succession was balanced between fire-exposed and unexposed areas, with 66% of all succession occurred on north- and east-facing slope aspects. Given previous experiments have demonstrated that moisture limitation inhibits tree establishment, suppressing elevation of ATE below thermal growth boundaries, we hypothesize that moisture limitation is selectively acting on warm slope aspects to inhibit tree establishment, post-fire. Support for this hypothesis is provided by comparing hydrometeorological variable importance in a random forest model of land cover change in the watershed.

Analyzing Relationships between Geochemical Composition, Spectral Reflectance, Broad-band Albedo and Thickness of Supra-glacial Tephra Deposits from the Eruptions of Eyafjallajökull and Grímsvötn Volcanoes in 2010 and 2011.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möller, R.; Möller, M.; Kukla, P. A.; Schneider, C.; Römer, W.; Lehmkuhl, F.; Gudmundsson, M. T.

2016-12-01

On Iceland, explosive subglacial eruptions are common. The two latest eruptions were at Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and at Grímsvötn 2011. Both eruptions produced considerable amounts of tephra fallout that were deposited over large parts of major Icelandic ice caps. These extensive supraglacial tephra deposits are known to considerably alter the energy and mass balance of the ice caps at a strong spatial and temporal variability. We present a statistical evaluation of relationships and links between geochemistry, thermal conductivity, spectral reflectance characteristics, albedo and deposition thickness of the tephra covers and their variability in space and time. Samples of the tephra deposits were gathered in the field and analyzed in the laboratory regarding their chemical and mineralogical composition using X-ray fluorescence and diffraction analyses. Spatial patterns of spectral reflectance over the tephra-covered areas of the three major ice caps Eyjafjallajökull, Myrdalsjökull and Vatnajökull were obtained from multispectral ASTER and MODIS satellite datasets. Spatial patterns of broad-band albedo across the tephra-covered areas and differences to the albedo of unaffected surfaces were obtained from remotely-sensed data and geostatistical modeling. Changes in tephra-cover thickness with time were assessed using a modeling approach that includes thermal conductivity of the tephra cover and surface temperature. The former is derived from laboratory analysis while the latter is based on MODIS observations. We found that there are characteristic patterns of spectral reflectance that could be linked to deposition thickness and geochemical composition of the respective tephra. The temporal variability of the albedo patterns across the ice caps is strongly linked to the evolution of the deposition thicknesses over time.

Forest canopy structural controls over throughfall affect soil microbial community structure in an epiphyte-laden maritime oak stand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Stan, J. T., II; Rosier, C. L.; Schrom, J. O.; Wu, T.; Reichard, J. S.; Kan, J.

2014-12-01

Identifying spatiotemporal influences on soil microbial community (SMC) structure is critical to understanding of patterns in nutrient cycling and related ecological services. Since forest canopy structure alters the spatiotemporal patterning of precipitation water and solute supplies to soils (via the "throughfall" mechanism), is it possible changes in SMC structure variability could arise from modifications in canopy elements? Our study investigates this question by monitoring throughfall water and dissolved ion supply to soils beneath a continuum of canopy structure: from a large gap (0% cover) to heavy Tillandsia usneoides L. (Spanish moss) canopy (>90% cover). Throughfall water supply diminished with increasing canopy cover, yet increased washoff/leaching of Na+, Cl-, PO43-, and SO42- from the canopy to the soils (p < 0.01). Presence of T. usneoides diminished throughfall NO3-, but enhanced NH4+, concentrations supplied to subcanopy soils. The mineral soil horizon (0-10 cm) from canopy gaps, bare canopy, and T. usneoides-laden canopy significantly differed (p < 0.05) in soil chemistry parameters (pH, Ca2+, Mg2+, CEC). PCR-DGGE banding patterns beneath similar canopy covers (experiencing similar throughfall dynamics) also produced high similarities per ANalyses Of SIMilarity (ANO-SIM), and clustered together when analyzed by Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS). Correlation analysis of DGGE banding patterns, throughfall dynamics, and soil chemistry yielded significant correlations (p < 0.05) between fungal communities and soil chemical properties significantly differing between canopy cover types (pH: r2 = 0.50; H+ %-base saturation: r2 = 0.48; Ca2+ %-base saturation: r2 = 0.43). Bacterial community structure correlated with throughfall NO3-, NH4+, and Ca2+ concentrations (r2 = 0.37, p = 0.16). These results suggest that modifications of forest canopy structures are capable of affecting mineral-soil horizon SMC structure via the throughfall mechanism when canopies' biomass distribution is highly heterogeneous.

Transformation of a landscape in the upper mid-west, USA: The history of the St. Croix river valley, 1830 to present

Treesearch

Osh (Barbara) Andersen; Thomas R. Crow; Sue M. Lietz; Forest Stearns

1996-01-01

Learning the history of a landscape is critical to understanding present land-use patterns. We document the history of landscape change in the lower St. Croix River valley from 1830 to the present. Significant changes in land use and cover have occurred during this time. Because of the convergence of prairie, savanna and forest vegetation in this area, and because of...

Quantifying terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Yin, Runsheng; Li, Zhengpeng; Deng, Yulin; Tan, Kun; Deng, Xiangzheng; Rothstein, David; Qi, Jiaguo

2010-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon budgets. Here we use the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China’s upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to a lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sink/source patterns showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. It is critical to adequately represent the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use activities in regional biogeochemical models to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of regional carbon sink/source patterns.

Throughfall-mediated alterations to soil microbial community structure in a forest plot of homogenous soil texture, litter, and plant species composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Stan, John; Rosier, Carl; Moore, Leslie; Gay, Trent; Reichard, James; Wu, Tiehang; Kan, Jinjun

2015-04-01

Identifying spatiotemporal influences on soil microbial community (SMC) structure is critical to our understanding of patterns in biogeochemical cycling and related ecological services (e.g., plant community structure, water quality, response to environmental change). Since forest canopy structure alters the spatiotemporal patterning of precipitation water and solute supplies to soils (via "throughfall"), is it possible that changes in SMC structure could arise from modifications in canopy elements? Our study investigates this question by monitoring throughfall water and dissolved ion supply to soils beneath a continuum of canopy structure: from large gaps (0% cover), to bare Quercus virginiana Mill. (southern live oak) canopy (~50-70%), to heavy Tillandsia usneoides L. (Spanish moss) canopy (>90% cover). Throughfall water supply diminished with increasing canopy cover, yet increased washoff/leaching of Na+, Cl-, PO43-, and SO42- from the canopy to the soils. Presence of T. usneoides diminished throughfall NO3-, but enhanced NH4+, concentrations supplied to subcanopy soils. The mineral soil horizon (0-10 cm) sampled in triplicate from locations receiving throughfall water and solutes from canopy gaps, bare canopy, and T. usneoides-laden canopy significantly differed in soil chemistry parameters (pH, Ca2+, Mg2+, CEC). Polymerase Chain Reaction-Denaturant Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) banding patterns beneath similar canopy covers (experiencing similar throughfall dynamics) also produced high similarities per ANalyses Of SIMilarity (ANO-SIM), and clustered together when analyzed by Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS). These results suggest that modifications of forest canopy structures are capable of affecting mineral-soil horizon SMC structure via throughfall when canopies' biomass distribution is highly heterogeneous. As SMC structure, in many instances, relates to functional diversity, we suggest that future research seek to identify functional diversity shifts (e.g., nitrogen transformation) in response to canopy structural alterations of throughfall water/solute concentration

Woodland pond salamander abundance in relation to forest management and environmental conditions in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Deahn M. Donner; Christine A. Ribic; Albert J. Beck; Dale Higgins; Dan Eklund; Susan Reinecke

2015-01-01

Woodland ponds are important landscape features that help sustain populations of amphibians that require this aquatic habitat for successful reproduction. Species abundance patterns often reflect site-specific differences in hydrology, physical characteristics, and surrounding vegetation. Large-scale processes such as changing land cover and environmental conditions...

Patterns of landscape dynamics and land use systems in the Southeastern Coastal Plain, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A variety of topics focused on research accomplished in the southeastern US were presented at this talk given on January 28, 2016, at the Brown Bag colloquium hosted by the University of Georgia Department of Geography. Topics covered included: a study analyzing road network and landscape change in ...

Mapping Process to Pattern in the Landscape Change of the Amazonian Frontier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Robert

2003-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover are dynamic processes reflecting a sequence of decisions made by individual land managers. In developing economies, these decisions may be embedded in the evolution of individual households, as is often the case in indigenous areas and agricultural frontiers. One goal of the present article is to address the land use and land-cover decisions of colonist farmers in the Amazon Basin as a function, in part, of household characteristics. Another goal is to generalize the issue of tropical deforestation into a broader discussion on forest dynamics. The extent of secondary forest in tropical areas has been well documented in South America and Africa. Agricultural-plot abandonment often occurs in tandem with primary forest clearance and as part of the same decision-making calculus. Consequently, tropical deforestation and forest succession are not independent processes in the landscape. This article presents a framework that integrates them into a model of forest dynamics at household level, and in so doing provides an account of the spatial pattern of deforestation that has been observed in the Amazon's colonization frontiers.

Response of Debris-Covered and Clean-Ice Glaciers to Climate Change from Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupper, S.; Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Roe, G.; Huybers, K. M.

2017-12-01

Debris-covered glaciers form a significant percentage of the glacier area and volume in many mountainous regions of the world, and respond differently to climatic forcings as compared to clean-ice glaciers. In particular, debris-covered glaciers tend to downwaste with very little retreat, while clean-ice glaciers simultaneously thin and retreat. This difference has posed a significant challenge to quantifying glacier sensitivity to climate change, modeling glacier response to future climate change, and assessing the impacts of recent and future glacier changes on mountain environments and downstream populations. In this study, we evaluate observations of the geodetic mass balance and thinning profiles of 1000 glaciers across the Himalayas from 1975 to 2016. We use this large sampling of glacier changes over multiple decades to provide a robust statistical comparison of mass loss for clean-ice versus debris-covered glaciers over a period relevant to glacier dynamics. In addition, we force a glacier model with a series of climate change scenarios, and compare the modeled results to the observations. We essentially ask the question, "Are our theoretical expectations consistent with the observations?" Our observations show both clean-ice and debris-covered glaciers, regionally averaged, thinned in a similar pattern for the first 25-year observation period. For the more recent 15-year period, clean ice glaciers show significantly steepened thinning gradients across the surface, while debris-covered glaciers have continued to thin more uniformaly across the surface. Our preliminary model results generally agree with these observations, and suggest that both glacier types are expected to have a thinning phase followed by a retreat phase, but that the timing of the retreat phase is much later for debris-covered glaciers. Thus, these early results suggest these two glacier types are dynamically very similar, but are currently in different phases of response to recent climate change. This difference in phase of response will be carefully evaluated by integrating the modeling and observational components of this work. In addition, we will use this integrated framework to assess the expected impacts of differing glacier response on glacier-related resources in the Himalayas over the coming century.

Tropical land use land cover mapping in Pará (Brazil) using discriminative Markov random fields and multi-temporal TerraSAR-X data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagensieker, Ron; Roscher, Ribana; Rosentreter, Johannes; Jakimow, Benjamin; Waske, Björn

2017-12-01

Remote sensing satellite data offer the unique possibility to map land use land cover transformations by providing spatially explicit information. However, detection of short-term processes and land use patterns of high spatial-temporal variability is a challenging task. We present a novel framework using multi-temporal TerraSAR-X data and machine learning techniques, namely discriminative Markov random fields with spatio-temporal priors, and import vector machines, in order to advance the mapping of land cover characterized by short-term changes. Our study region covers a current deforestation frontier in the Brazilian state Pará with land cover dominated by primary forests, different types of pasture land and secondary vegetation, and land use dominated by short-term processes such as slash-and-burn activities. The data set comprises multi-temporal TerraSAR-X imagery acquired over the course of the 2014 dry season, as well as optical data (RapidEye, Landsat) for reference. Results show that land use land cover is reliably mapped, resulting in spatially adjusted overall accuracies of up to 79% in a five class setting, yet limitations for the differentiation of different pasture types remain. The proposed method is applicable on multi-temporal data sets, and constitutes a feasible approach to map land use land cover in regions that are affected by high-frequent temporal changes.

Changes in speckle patterns induced by load application onto an optical fiber and its possible application for sensing purpose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, Makoto; Okumura, Jyun-ya; Hyuga, Akio

2015-08-01

Speckle patterns to be observed in an output light spot from an optical fiber are known to be changed due to external disturbances applied onto the optical fiber. In order to investigate possibilities of utilizing such changes in speckle patterns for sensing application, a certain load was applied onto a jacket-covered communication-grade multi-mode glass optical fiber through which laser beams emitted from a laser diode were propagating, and observed changes in speckle patterns in the output light spot from the optical fiber were investigated both as image data via a CCD camera and as an output voltage from a photovoltaic panel irradiated with the output light spot. The load was applied via a load application mechanism in which several ridges were provided onto opposite flat plates and a certain number of weights were placed there so that corrugated bending of the optical fiber was intentionally induced via load application due to the ridges. The obtained results showed that the number of speckles in the observed pattern in the output light spot as well as the output voltage from the photovoltaic panel irradiated with the output light spot showed decreases upon load application with relatively satisfactory repeatability. When the load was reduced, i.e., the weights were removed, the number of speckles then showed recovery. These results indicate there is a certain possibility of utilizing changes in speckle patterns for sensing of load application onto the optical fiber.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes 1977 to 2000 in the Steppe Region of Ukraine, and Preliminary Results of Evaluating its Ecological and Land Form Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, G. J.; Prydatko, V.; Luhmann, E. P.

2001-05-01

Ukraine's history as agro-economic region dates back hundreds of years, being the most productive portion of the "black earth region" for the now defunct Soviet Union. This incredible level of agricultural production brought tremendous changes to the landscape matrix, largely eliminating forests and prairie systems from the southern steppe regions of Ukraine. The age of industrialization has had far less significant impacts to the land use patterns as large farms were operated and managed under Soviet Era cooperatives. The recent, 1992, independence of Ukraine has brought new pressures to the landscape. These pressures are initiated by economic needs of Ukraine seeking to be resolved through increased farm production and rapid land and industrial privatization. This study examines land cover changes between 1977, 1988 and 2000 within a representative region of southern Ukraine and northern Crimea. The region covers prototypical landscapes of the steppe region of agriculture at various scales and crops. The study area also allows an examination of changes along coastal areas in the Azov and Black Seas, specifically barrier systems. Additionally, areas of rapid privatization of industries and introduction of western industries exist within this region. The years selected for documentation were chosen as being one near the height of Soviet autonomy, near separation of the Soviet Union and independence of Ukraine and current times. The study looks at ways of documenting land cover change using satellite imagery with ancillary ground based information. The study evaluates effects of these land cover changes through associated losses of hydrologic characteristics in the landscape such as stream, as well as landform changes especially in coastal barrier systems. These changes are correlated to landscape changes and ecological parameters recorded during this nearly 30 year period. Preliminary conclusions are presented as to alternative land use practices and actions for stabilization of the remaining "natural" landscape and protection of near coastal systems especially barrier systems.

Decline in atmospheric sulphur deposition and changes in climate are the major drivers of long-term change in grassland plant communities in Scotland.

PubMed

Mitchell, Ruth J; Hewison, Richard L; Fielding, Debbie A; Fisher, Julia M; Gilbert, Diana J; Hurskainen, Sonja; Pakeman, Robin J; Potts, Jacqueline M; Riach, David

2018-04-01

The predicted long lag time between a decrease in atmospheric deposition and a measured response in vegetation has generally excluded the investigation of vegetation recovery from the impacts of atmospheric deposition. However, policy-makers require such evidence to assess whether policy decisions to reduce emissions will have a positive impact on habitats. Here we have shown that 40 years after the peak of SO x emissions, decreases in SO x are related to significant changes in species richness and cover in Scottish Calcareous, Mestrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands. Using a survey of vegetation plots across Scotland, first carried out between 1958 and 1987 and resurveyed between 2012 and 2014, we test whether temporal changes in species richness and cover of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae, and Juncaceae can be explained by changes in sulphur and nitrogen deposition, climate and/or grazing intensity, and whether these patterns differ between six grassland habitats: Acid, Calcareous, Lolium, Nardus, Mesotrophic and Wet grasslands. The results indicate that Calcareous, Mesotrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands in Scotland are starting to recover from the UK peak of SO x deposition in the 1970's. A decline in the cover of grasses, an increase in cover of bryophytes and forbs and the development of a more diverse sward (a reversal of the impacts of increased SO x ) was related to decreased SO x deposition. However there was no evidence of a recovery from SO x deposition in the Acid or Lolium grasslands. Despite a decline in NO x deposition between the two surveys we found no evidence of a reversal of the impacts of increased N deposition. The climate also changed significantly between the two surveys, becoming warmer and wetter. This change in climate was related to significant changes in both the cover and species richness of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae and Juncaceae but the changes differed between habitats. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio-economic conditions across the study regions. Despite access to groundwater irrigation, crop cover in the western Indian study region showed substantial fluctuations during monsoon, probably due to changing planting strategies. This region is less sensitive to precipitation compared to the central Indian study region with predominantly climate-dependent irrigation from surface water. In western Indian study region a greater number of rainy days, increased intensity of rainfall, and cooler daytime and nighttime temperatures lead to increased crop cover during monsoon season, compared to in the central Indian study region where monsoon timing and amount of total rainfall are the most important factors of crop cover. Our findings indicate that different regions respond differently to climate, since socio-economic factors, such as irrigation access, market influences, demography, and policies play critical role in agricultural production. In the wake of projected precipitation and temperature changes, better access to irrigation and heat-tolerant high-yielding crop varieties will be crucial for future food production.

Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandt, Martin; Hiernaux, Pierre; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Mbow, Cheikh; Kergoat, Laurent; Tagesson, Torbern; Ibrahim, Yahaya Z.; Wele, Abdoulaye; Tucker, Compton J.; Fensholt, Rasmus

2016-01-01

Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonko, Alexandra Karolina; Hense, Andreas; Feddema, Johannes Jan

2010-09-01

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T 2 test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.

Impact of deforestation on local precipitation patterns over the Da River basin, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Spartà, Daniele; Castelletti, Andrea; Boschetti, Mirco

2014-05-01

Change in land cover, e.g. from forest to bare soil, might severely impact the hydrological cycle at the river basin scale by altering the balance between rainfall and evaporation, ultimately affecting streamflow dynamics. These changes generally occur over decades, but they might be much more rapid in developing countries, where economic growth and growing population may cause abrupt changes in landscape and ecosystem. Detecting, analysing and modelling these changes is an essential step to design mitigation strategies and adaptation plans, balancing economic development and ecosystem protection. In this work we investigate the impact of land cover changes on the water cycle in the Da River basin, Vietnam. More precisely, the objective is to evaluate the interlink between deforestation and precipitation. The case study is particularly interesting because Vietnam is one of the world fastest growing economies and natural resources have been considerably exploited to support after-war development. Vietnam has the second highest rate of deforestation of primary forests in the world, second to only Nigeria (FAO 2005), with associated problems like abrupt change in run-off, erosion, sediment transport and flash floods. We performed land cover evaluation by combining literature information and Remote Sensing techniques, using Landsat images. We then analysed time series of precipitation observed on the period 1960-2011 in several stations located in the catchment area. We used multiple trend detection techniques, both state-of-the-art (e.g., Linear regression and Mann-Kendall) and novel trend detection techniques (Moving Average on Shifting Horizon), to investigate trends in seasonal pattern of precipitation. Results suggest that deforestation may induce a negative trend in the precipitation volume. The effect is mainly recognizable at the beginning and at the end of the monsoon season, when the local mechanisms of precipitation formation prevail over the large scale ones.

Impact of urbanization-related land use land cover changes and urban morphology changes on the urban heat island phenomenon.

PubMed

Zhou, Xuefan; Chen, Hong

2018-04-24

Urban growth and development caused by urbanization influence the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. With the rapid development of urbanization, China's major cities are facing more serious climate change problems, especially the UHI phenomenon. Proper planning and urban design of compact cities may improve the ventilation of street canyons and change the heat balance in the urban canopy and thus mitigate the UHI phenomenon. The aim of this study is to evaluate and discuss the mitigation of UHI with different types of land-use and land-cover (LUCC), as well as different development patterns for compact cities. To this end, we applied the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) with urban canopy model (WRF/UCM) in this study. To evaluate the impact of LUCC changes on the UHI, we set 2 cases based on land use and land cover statistical data from 1965 and 2008 of Wuhan. Also, to evaluate the impact of urban morphology changes on the UHI, we designed 2 hypothetical cases based on 2 different urban developing patterns, one is high rise case and another is high density case, to simulate the impact of urban morphology on the UHI. As for the results of this study, with different LUCC of 1965 and 2008, UHI intensity of Wuhan increased by 0.2 °C-0.4 °C in average. Moreover, the critical wind speed which can mitigate UHI of case 1965 is much lower than case 2008. With different urban morphology, the high-rise case may lead to lower UHI intensity at the pedestrian level due to the shading effects of high-rise buildings. However, the critical value of wind speed in the high-rise case was almost 1.5-2 times greater than that of the high-density case, which illustrates the reduced possibility of mitigating the UHI phenomenon for high-rise buildings in Wuhan City. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Mena, Carlos F.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways. PMID:24436501

Integrating vegetation index time series and meteorological data to understand the effect of the land use/land cover (LULC) in the climatic seasonality of the Brazilian Cerrado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lins, D. B.; Zullo, J.; Friedel, M. J.

2013-12-01

The Cerrado (savanna ecosystem) of São Paulo state (Brazil) represent a complex mosaic of different typologies of uses, actors and biophysical and social restrictions. Originally, 14% of the state of São Paulo area was covered by the diversity of Cerrado phytophysiognomies. Currently, only 1% of this original composition remains fragmented into numerous relicts of biodiversity, mainly concentrated in the central-eastern of the state. A relevant part of the fragments are found in areas of intense coverage change by human activities, whereas the greatest pressure comes from sugar cane cultivation, either by direct replacement of Cerrado vegetation or occupying pasture areas in the fragments edges. As a result, new local level dynamics has been introduced, directly or indirectly, affecting the established of processes in climate systems. In this study, the main goal is analyzing the relationship between the Cerrado landscape changing and the climate dynamics in regional and local areas. The multi-temporal MODIS 250 m Vegetation Index (VI) datasets (period of 2000 to 2012) are integrated with precipitation data of the correspondent period (http://www.agritempo.gov.br/),one of the most important variable of the spatial phytophysiognomies distribution. The integration of meteorological data enable the development of an integrated approach to understand the relationship between climatic seasonality and the changes in the spatial patterns. A procedure to congregated diverse dynamics information is the Self Organizing Map (SOM, Kohonen, 2001), a technique that relies on unsupervised competitive learning (Kohonen and Somervuo 2002) to recognize patterns. In this approach, high-dimensional data are represented on two dimensions, making possible to obtain patterns that takes into account information from different natures. Observed advances will contribute to bring machine-learning techniques as a valid tool to provide improve in land use/land cover (LULC) analyzes at different hierarchical scales to support numerous science and policy applications.

Changing stream temperatures in a changing world: evaluating spatio-temporal patterns and trends across the eastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, C.; Archfield, S. A.

2016-12-01

Stream temperatures drive biogeochemical processes and influence ecosystem health and extent, with patterns of stream temperature arising from complex interactions between climate, land cover, and in-stream diversions and dams. While each of these individual drivers may have well-understood implications for changing stream temperatures, considering the concomitant impacts of these drivers along the stream network is much more difficult. This is true especially for the eastern United States, where downstream temperature integrates many different upstream impacts. To begin to decipher the influence of these different drivers on changing stream temperatures and how these impacts may manifest through time, we examined trends for 66 sites with continuous stream temperature measurements across the eastern United States. Stream temperature records were summarized as daily mean, maximum, and mimimum values, and sites consisting of 15 or more years of data were selected for analysis. While annual stream temperatures at 53 locations were warming, a few sites on larger rivers (n = 13) have been cooling. To explore the timing of these changes as well as their implications for aquatic species, we calculated trends for seasonal extremes (average of the five warmest and coolest daily stream temperatures) during spring, summer, and fall. Interestingly, while some streams displayed strong warming trends in peak summer temperatures (n = 43), many streams also displayed cooling trends (n = 23). We also found that peak stream temperatures were warming faster in fall than in summer for many locations (n = 36). Results of this analysis show that warming (and cooling) happens at different times in different places, as a function of climate and anthropogenic impacts. Finally, we explore potential drivers of these different patterns, to determine the relative impacts of climate, land cover, and in-stream water diversions on stream temperature change. Given that the number of regulated stream miles is only increasing, improving our understanding of linkages between landscape drivers and stream temperature variation may have important outcomes for river management in a changing world.

Spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics in the Northeastern United States from the Colonial Era through the Industrial Revolution (1600-1920)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witherell, B. B.; Bain, D. J.; Salant, N.; Aloysius, N. R.

2009-12-01

Humans impact the hydrologic cycle at local, regional and global scales. Understanding how spatial patterns of human water use and hydrologic impact have changed over time is important to future water management in an era of increasing water constraints and globalization of high water-use resources. This study investigates spatial dependence and spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics for the Northeastern United States from 1600 to 1920 through the use of spatial statistical techniques. Several relevant hydro-social metrics, including water residence time, surface water storage (natural and human engineered) and per capita water availability, are analyzed. This study covers a region and period of time that saw significant population growth, landscape change, and industrial growth. These changes had important impacts on water availability. Although some changes such as the elimination of beavers, and the resulting loss of beaver ponds on low-order streams, are felt at a regional scale, preliminary analysis indicates that humans responded to water constraints by acting locally (e.g., mill ponds for water power and water supply reservoirs for public health). This 320-year historical analysis of spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics provides unique insight into long-term changes in coupled human-water systems.

Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake as a function of changing land use and land cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badar, Bazigha; Romshoo, Shakil A.; Khan, M. A.

2013-04-01

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological processes in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modelling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment have significantly altered the land system, impairing, inter-alia, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was to help a better understanding of the LULC change, its driving forces and the overall impact on the hydrological response patterns. Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the LULC conditions. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in the study area and increase in impervious and bare surface cover due to anthropogenic interventions are the primary reasons for the increased runoff, erosion and sediment discharges in the Dal lake catchment. This study concludes that LULC change in the catchment is a major concern that has disrupted the ecological stability and functioning of the Dal lake ecosystem.

Dynamic Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Fragmented Forests in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastogi, D.; Baidya Roy, S.

2011-12-01

This paper investigates land-atmosphere feedbacks in disturbed rainforests of Amazonia. Deforestation along the rapidly expanding highways and road network has created the unique fishbone land cover pattern in Rondonia, a state in southwestern Amazonia. Numerical experiments and observations show that sharp gradients in land cover due to the fishbone heterogeneity triggers mesoscale circulations. These circulations significantly change the spatial pattern of local hydrometeorology, especially convection, clouds and precipitation. The primary research question now is can these changes in local hydrometeorology affect vegetation growth in the clearings. If so, that would be a clear indication that land-atmosphere feedbacks can affect vegetation recovery in fragmented forests. A computationally-efficient modeling tool consisting of a mesoscale atmospheric model dynamically coupled with a plant growth model has been specifically developed to identify the atmospheric feedback pathways. Preliminary experiments focus on the seasonal-scale feedbacks during the dry season. Results show that temperature, incoming shortwave and precipitation are the three primary drivers through which the feedbacks operate. Increasing temperature increases respiratory losses generating a positive feedback. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming PAR and photosynthesis, resulting in a positive feedback. Increased precipitation reduces water stress and promotes growth resulting in a negative feedback. The net effect is a combination of these 3 feedback loops. These findings can significantly improve our understanding of ecosystem resiliency in disturbed tropical forests.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Impervious Cover Relative to Watershed Stream Location

EPA Science Inventory

The influence of spatial pattern on ecological processes is a guiding principle of landscape ecology. The guiding principle of spatial pattern was used for a U.S. nationwide assessment of impervious cover (IC). Spatial pattern was measured by comparing IC concentration near strea...

Remote Sensing of Climate-Driven Range Shifts of Vegetation across North American Mountain Ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendrick, J. A.; Sax, D. F.; Kellner, J. R.

2015-12-01

Global climate change is driving shifts in local environmental conditions, and many organisms are projected to become poorly adapted to their current ranges. Some species may respond by gradually shifting their range limits to track environmental change. This adaptation strategy is expected to be most feasible in regions with sharp climatic gradients, such as mountain ranges. However, the extent to which this process is taking place is poorly understood, and some evidence suggests that shifts upwards in elevation might be more difficult than expected. Direct empirical evidence of range shifts in response to recent climate change could inform models and conservation strategies. Here we used Monte Carlo spectral unmixing of Landsat surface reflectance data to characterize changes in vegetation cover across major North American mountain ranges over the past 30 years. This approach allows us to observe changes in photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic vegetation as well as absolute change in vegetation cover. We found evidence of a gradual increase in total vegetation cover at increasing elevations, but this pattern varied in its strength both within and among mountain ranges. We also observed more dramatic changes in vegetation type which differed strongly between regions with different climates. Our analysis shows that upslope range shift is a possible climate response in many cases, but that this process does not occur uniformly.

Cascading ecohydrological transitions: Multiple changes in vegetation and hydrology over the past 500 years for a semiarid forest/woodland boundary zone in New Mexico, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Craig D.

2010-05-01

On decadal and centennial time scales, multiple drivers can cause substantial changes in vegetation cover, which can trigger associated changes in runoff and erosion patterns and processes, with consequent feedbacks to the vegetation - cumulatively this can lead to a cascading series of non-equilibrial ecosystem changes through time. The work reported here provides a relatively detailed 500-year perspective of such changes on the mesas the eastern Jemez Mountains in northern New Mexico (USA), which today exhibit vegetation transitions along an elevational gradient between semiarid ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, mixed woodlands dominated by piñon (Pinus edulis) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma), and juniper savannas. Using multiple lines of evidence, a history of major ecosystem changes since ca. 1500 A.D. is reconstructed for a dynamic transition zone on one such mesa (Frijolito Mesa). Evidence includes intensive archaeological surveys, dendrochronological reconstructions of the demographic and spatial patterns of establishment and mortality for these three main tree species, dendrochronological reconstructions of fire regimes and climate patterns, broad-scale mapping of vegetation changes from historic aerial photographs since 1935, monitoring of vegetation from permanent transects since 1991, detailed soil maps and interpretations, intensive ecohydrological studies since 1993 on portions of this mesa, and research on the ecosystem effects of an experimental tree-thinning experiment conducted in 1997. Frijolito Mesa was fully occupied by large numbers of Native American farmers from the A.D. 1200's until the late 1500's, when they left these mesas for settlements in the adjoining Rio Grande Valley. Archaeological evidence and tree ages indicate that the mesa was likely quite deforested when abandoned, followed by episodic tree establishment dominated by ponderosa pine during the Little Ice Age. By the late 1700's Frijolito Mesa included ponderosa pine in open stands maintained by frequent surface fires burning through herbaceous ground cover adequate to maintain ancient (>100,000 year old) soils, interspersed with young piñon-juniper savannas and woodlands on rockier fire-safe sites. Intensive livestock grazing from the late 1800's thru 1932 reduced the herbaceous ground cover, interrupting the surface fire regime, triggering massive establishment of fire-sensitive piñon and juniper throughout much of the 1900's. Severe drought in the 1950's killed all the ponderosa pine across an irregular ecotone shift zone up to 2 km wide, with no subsequent regeneration, leaving piñon-juniper woodland with accelerated, unsustainable erosion in desertified areas between tree clumps (averaging ~4 Mg/ha/year for the period 1995-2007 in a 1.09 ha study watershed). Warm drought in the early 2000's caused mass mortality of essentially all overstory piñon, leaving juniper as the only remaining tree dominant across huge areas. Ecohydrological processes are shifting again with declining runoff/erosion trends since 2003 as dead piñon skeletons fall and with increased abundances of shrubs and herbaceous surface cover, decreasing the connectivity of bare soil patches. The history of Frijolito Mesa illustrates multiple major transitions in vegetation since 1500 A.D., and substantial changes in runoff and erosion processes. This research has been used by the National Park Service since 2007 to implement an ecosystem restoration treatment (mechanical thinning of small trees with chainsaws and application of branch slash mulch) at a landscape scale of ~2000 ha. The treatments effectively conserve more water and soil onsite, increasing herbaceous ground cover and decreasing soil erosion rates 100-fold, stabilizing hundreds of archaeological sites and restoring the potential for natural surface fires. The ecohydrological history of this mesa also provides insight into how similar vegetation changes, such as episodes of widespread and intensive tree mortality that are now emerging with climate stress around the world, may significantly affect ecohydrological patterns and processes in other regions.

Flow characteristics and longitudinal sorting patterns associated with stable alluvial-bedrock and bedrock-alluvial transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarinik, S.; Viparelli, E.

2017-12-01

Recent research recognized the existence of bedrock channels in low-slope rivers, but little is known about the morphodynamics of bedrock-alluvial and alluvial-bedrock transitions in these systems. Bedrock-alluvial and alluvial-bedrock transitions are fluvial features separating bedrock and alluvial reaches. In the bedrock reach the river bed is partially covered with alluvium. An increase in sediment supply to an alluvial reach results in channel bed aggradation. An increase in sediment supply to a bedrock reach, on the other hand, results in a reduction of the exposed bedrock. Mathematical modeling of the alluvial morphodynamics of bedrock reaches reveals that these transitions can characterize transient or equilibrium conditions. Model results show that the magnitude of the alluvial equilibrium slope and the depth of the bedrock surface relative to the downstream water surface base level have a primary control on the equilibrium conditions. Further, numerical results show that when a stable bedrock-alluvial transition forms, the bed material transport capacity in bedrock reach decreases in the flow direction. On the contrary, when a stable alluvial-bedrock transition forms the bed material transport capacity in the bedrock reach increases in the flow direction. These spatial changes in bed material transport capacity are associated with spatial changes in alluvial cover and flow hydrodynamics. Here we present a one-dimensional formulation of alluvial morphodynamics that accounts for the non-uniformity of the bed material and for the spatial change in flow resistances associated with the spatial and temporal changes in flow hydrodynamics of the bedrock reaches. This change in flow resistances can be associated with 1) changes in skin friction due to longitudinal changes in the grain size distribution of the bed surface, and/or 2) changes in bedform geometry associated with the interaction between the alluvial cover and the underlying bedrock. The model has been validated against laboratory experiments with stable alluvial-bedrock transitions and is applied to describe the spatial changes in flow characteristics and sediment sorting patterns upstream of a stable bedrock-alluvial transition.

Modelling land use change with generalized linear models--a multi-model analysis of change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana.

PubMed

Aspinall, Richard

2004-08-01

This paper develops an approach to modelling land use change that links model selection and multi-model inference with empirical models and GIS. Land use change is frequently studied, and understanding gained, through a process of modelling that is an empirical analysis of documented changes in land cover or land use patterns. The approach here is based on analysis and comparison of multiple models of land use patterns using model selection and multi-model inference. The approach is illustrated with a case study of rural housing as it has developed for part of Gallatin County, Montana, USA. A GIS contains the location of rural housing on a yearly basis from 1860 to 2000. The database also documents a variety of environmental and socio-economic conditions. A general model of settlement development describes the evolution of drivers of land use change and their impacts in the region. This model is used to develop a series of different models reflecting drivers of change at different periods in the history of the study area. These period specific models represent a series of multiple working hypotheses describing (a) the effects of spatial variables as a representation of social, economic and environmental drivers of land use change, and (b) temporal changes in the effects of the spatial variables as the drivers of change evolve over time. Logistic regression is used to calibrate and interpret these models and the models are then compared and evaluated with model selection techniques. Results show that different models are 'best' for the different periods. The different models for different periods demonstrate that models are not invariant over time which presents challenges for validation and testing of empirical models. The research demonstrates (i) model selection as a mechanism for rating among many plausible models that describe land cover or land use patterns, (ii) inference from a set of models rather than from a single model, (iii) that models can be developed based on hypothesised relationships based on consideration of underlying and proximate causes of change, and (iv) that models are not invariant over time.

Landscape-based upstream-downstream prevalence of land-use/cover change drivers in southeastern rift escarpment of Ethiopia.

PubMed

Temesgen, Habtamu; Wu, Wei; Legesse, Abiyot; Yirsaw, Eshetu; Bekele, Belew

2018-02-23

Characterized by high population density on a rugged topography, the Gedeo-Abaya landscape dominantly contains a multi-strata traditional agroforests showing the insight of Gedeo farmers on natural resource management practices. Currently, this area has been losing its resilience and is becoming unable to sustain its inhabitants. Based on both RS-derived and GIS-computed land-use/cover changes (LUCC) as well as socioeconomic validations, this article explored the LUCC and agroecological-based driver patterns in Gedeo-Abaya landscape from 1986 to 2015. A combination of geo-spatial technology and cross-sectional survey design were employed to detect the drivers behind these changes. The article discussed that LUCC and the prevalence of drivers are highly diverse and vary throughout agroecological zones. Except for the population, most downstream top drivers are perceived as insignificant in the upstream region and vice versa. In the downstream, land-use/cover (LUC) classes are more dynamic, diverse, and challenged by nearly all anticipated drivers than are upstream ones. Agroforestry LUC has been increasing (by 25% of its initial cover) and is becoming the predominant cover type, although socioeconomic analysis and related findings show its rapid LUC modification. A rapid reduction of woodland/shrubland (63%) occurred in the downstream, while wetland/marshy land increased threefold (158%), from 1986 to 2015 with annual change rates of - 3.7 and + 6%, respectively. Land degradation induced by changes in land use is a serious problem in Africa, especially in the densely populated sub-Saharan regions such as Ethiopia (FAO 2015). Throughout the landscape, LUCC is prominently affecting land-use system of the study landscape due to population pressure in the upstream region and drought/rainfall variability, agribusiness investment, and charcoaling in the downstream that necessitate urgent action.

US imaging and color Doppler in patients undergoing inhibitory therapy with calcitriol for secondary hyperparathyroidism.

PubMed

Pretolesi, F; Silvestri, E; Di Maio, G; Martinoli, C; Onetto, F; Sala, P; Derchi, L E

1997-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in volume, structure, and flow pattern of parathyroid glands in uremic patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism treated with long-term intravenous calcitriol (CTL) therapy. Ultrasonography was used to follow-up volume changes occurring in 18 enlarged glands in 11 patients during an 18-month period; in 6 of these cases, 11 glands were followed-up also with color-Doppler to monitor variations in flow pattern. Vascularization was classified using three grades: grade 0 = no color signal; grade I = vessels covering less than 50 % of glandular cross-sectional area; grade II = vascular signals covering more than 50 % of glandular cross-sectional area. No significant changes in volume were demonstrated during the 18 months of follow-up. On the contrary, significant decrease in flow was observed with almost complete disappearance of color-Doppler signals. This finding related well with the observed decrease in parathormone blood levels. Lack of volume changes during medical therapy demonstrates the inability of US alone to monitor the effect of this treatment on the parathyroid glands. Conversely, the observed intraglandular flow reduction indicates the possibility to use color Doppler to monitor the effects of CLT in uremic hemodialyzed patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism. This imaging procedure can be proposed for follow-up of the response of the parathyroid glands to therapy.

Evaluating the impact of improvements to the FLAMBE smoke source model on forecasts of aerosol distribution from NAAPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.

2006-12-01

As more forecast models aim to include aerosol and chemical species, there is a need for source functions for biomass burning emissions that are accurate, robust, and operable in real-time. NAAPS is a global aerosol forecast model running every six hours and forecasting distributions of biomass burning, industrial sulfate, dust, and sea salt aerosols. This model is run operationally by the U.S. Navy as an aid to planning. The smoke emissions used as input to the model are calculated from the data collected by the FLAMBE system, driven by near-real-time active fire data from GOES WF_ABBA and MODIS Rapid Response. The smoke source function uses land cover data to predict properties of detected fires based on literature data from experimental burns. This scheme is very sensitive to the choice of land cover data sets. In areas of rapid land cover change, the use of static land cover data can produce artifactual changes in emissions unrelated to real changes in fire patterns. In South America, this change may be as large as 40% over five years. We demonstrate the impact of a modified land cover scheme on FLAMBE emissions and NAAPS forecasts, including a fire size algorithm developed using MODIS burned area data. We also describe the effects of corrections to emissions estimates for cloud and satellite coverage. We outline areas where existing data sources are incomplete and improvements are required to achieve accurate modeling of biomass burning emissions in real time.

Status and trends of land change in the Midwest–South Central United States—1973 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auch, Roger F.; Karstensen, Krista A.; Auch, Roger F.; Karstensen, Krista A.

2015-12-10

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–C is the third in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Midwest–South Central United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and D provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation.Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Midwest–South Central United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Midwest–South Central United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research.

Estimating Landscape Pattern Metrics from a Sample of Land Cover

EPA Science Inventory

Although landscape pattern metrics can be computed directly from wall-to-wall land-cover maps, statistical sampling offers a practical alternative when complete coverage land-cover information is unavailable. Partitioning a region into spatial units (“blocks”) to create a samplin...

Numerical simulation of the effects of urban land-use changes on the local climate of multiple desert cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, S. M.; Huang, H. P.; Myint, S. W.

2016-12-01

This study quantifies the effect of urbanization on local climate by numerical simulations for multiple desert cities with a wide range of urban size, baseline climatology, and composition of land cover. The numerical experiments use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with multiple layers of nesting centered at a desert city. To extract the influence of land-use changes, twin runs are performed with each pair driven by the same time-varying lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis but different land surface conditions from Landsat observations for 1985 and 2010. The differences in the meteorological fields between the two runs are interpreted as the effects of land-use changes due to urbanization from 1985-2010. Using this strategy, simulations are carried out for five desert cities: (1) Las Vegas, United States, (2) Hotan, China, (3) Kharga, Egypt, (4) Beer Sheva, Israel, and (5) Jodhpur, India. The results of the simulations reveal a common pattern of the climatic effect of desert urbanization with nighttime warming but daytime cooling over areas where urbanization occurred. This effect is mainly confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detail of land cover in the surrounding non-urban areas. The pattern is similar in winter and summer. Exceptions to this pattern are found in a few cases in which the noisiness of local circulation, specifically monsoon and land-sea breeze, overwhelms the climatic signal induced by land-use changes. Although the local climatic responses to urbanization are qualitatively similar for the five desert cities, quantitative differences exist in the magnitudes of nighttime warming and daytime cooling. The possible reasons for those secondary differences are discussed.

GLOBE students, teachers, and scientists demonstrate variable differences between urban and rural leaf phenology

Treesearch

Rico Gazal; Michael A. White; Robert Gillies; Eli Rodemakers; Elena Sparrow; Leslie Gordon

2008-01-01

The urban heat island effect, classically associated with high impervious surface area (ISA), low vegetation fractional cover (Fr), and high land surface temperature (LST), has been linked to changing patterns of vegetation phenology, especially spring growth. In this study, a collaboration with the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE)...

Potential Changes in Prospective Chemistry Teachers' Beliefs about Teaching and Learning--A Cross-Level Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markic, Silvija; Eilks, Ingo

2013-01-01

This paper presents a cross-level study of German student teachers' beliefs about teaching and learning chemistry. It covers different stages of their teacher training program. The study is based upon drawings of teaching situations, which were analyzed using an evaluation pattern developed using grounded theory. The qualitative scales analyze…

Arkansas forest resource patterns

Treesearch

Charles C. Van Sickle

1970-01-01

A new forest survey of Arkansas reveals that forests cover 55 percent of the land in the State. In all, 18.2 million acres are available for and capable of growing industrial timber. Substantial change has occurred in the timber resource. In the 10 years preceding the new survey, forest area declined by one-eighth . Clearing for cropland and pasture claimed...

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Nel, Jeanne L; Le Maitre, David C; Nel, Deon C; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W; Forsyth, Greg G; Theron, Andre K; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

Impacts of Climate Anomalies on the Vegetation Patterns in the Arid and Semi-Arid Zones of Uzbekistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dildora, Aralova; Toderich, Kristina; Dilshod, Gafurov

2016-08-01

Steadily rising temperature anomalies in last decades are causing changes in vegetation patterns for sensitive to climate change in arid and semi-arid dryland ecosystems. After desiccation of the Aral Sea, Uzbekistan has been left with the challenge to develop drought and heat stress monitoring system and tools (e.g., to monitor vegetation status and/crop pattern dynamics) with using remote sensing technologies in broad scale. This study examines several climate parameters, NDVI and drought indexes within geostatistical method to predict further vegetation status in arid and semi-arid zones of landscapes. This approaches aimed to extract and utilize certain variable environmental data (temperature and precipitation) for assessment and inter-linkages of vegetation cover dynamics, specifically related to predict degraded and recovered zones or desertification process in the drylands due to scarcity of water resources and high risks of climate anomalies in fragile ecosystem of Uzbekistan.

Neutral model analysis of landscape patterns from mathematical morphology

Treesearch

Kurt H. Riitters; Peter Vogt; Pierre Soille; Jacek Kozak; Christine Estreguil

2007-01-01

Mathematical morphology encompasses methods for characterizing land-cover patterns in ecological research and biodiversity assessments. This paper reports a neutral model analysis of patterns in the absence of a structuring ecological process, to help set standards for comparing and interpreting patterns identified by mathematical morphology on real land-cover maps. We...

Shadowing on Apollo 12 Solar Cells and Possible Movement of the ALSEP Central Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berman, Paul A.; Williams, David R.

2014-01-01

A fortuitous arrangement of a west-facing solar cell and a bracket on the Apollo 12 ALSEP (Apollo Lunar Surface Experiments Package) has allowed us to precisely determine the relative position of the Sun near sunset relative to the Apollo 12 central station over a period of nearly 8 years. The small bracket, mounted on the central station due west of the cell, casts a shadow on the cell near sunset, decreasing the output of the cell proportional to the area of shadow covering the cell. The pattern of shadowing by the bracket gives good agreement with the known change of solar azimuth on a yearly timescale, but the pattern gradually but constantly changed from year-to-year, in a manner inconsistent with the known and changing position of the Sun.

Quantifying Shark Distribution Patterns and Species-Habitat Associations: Implications of Marine Park Zoning

PubMed Central

Espinoza, Mario; Cappo, Mike; Heupel, Michelle R.; Tobin, Andrew J.; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.

2014-01-01

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-specific habitat associations in response to geographic and environmental drivers is critical to assessing risk of exposure to fishing, habitat degradation, and the effects of climate change. The present study examined shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and marine reserve use with baited remote underwater video stations (BRUVS) along the entire Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) over a ten year period. Overall, 21 species of sharks from five families and two orders were recorded. Grey reef Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, silvertip C. albimarginatus, tiger Galeocerdo cuvier, and sliteye Loxodon macrorhinus sharks were the most abundant species (>64% of shark abundances). Multivariate regression trees showed that hard coral cover produced the primary split separating shark assemblages. Four indicator species had consistently higher abundances and contributed to explaining most of the differences in shark assemblages: C. amblyrhynchos, C. albimarginatus, G. cuvier, and whitetip reef Triaenodon obesus sharks. Relative distance along the GBRMP had the greatest influence on shark occurrence and species richness, which increased at both ends of the sampling range (southern and northern sites) relative to intermediate latitudes. Hard coral cover and distance across the shelf were also important predictors of shark distribution. The relative abundance of sharks was significantly higher in non-fished sites, highlighting the conservation value and benefits of the GBRMP zoning. However, our results also showed that hard coral cover had a large effect on the abundance of reef-associated shark species, indicating that coral reef health may be important for the success of marine protected areas. Therefore, understanding shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and the drivers responsible for those patterns is essential for developing sound management and conservation approaches. PMID:25207545

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-habitat associations: implications of marine park zoning.

PubMed

Espinoza, Mario; Cappo, Mike; Heupel, Michelle R; Tobin, Andrew J; Simpfendorfer, Colin A

2014-01-01

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-specific habitat associations in response to geographic and environmental drivers is critical to assessing risk of exposure to fishing, habitat degradation, and the effects of climate change. The present study examined shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and marine reserve use with baited remote underwater video stations (BRUVS) along the entire Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) over a ten year period. Overall, 21 species of sharks from five families and two orders were recorded. Grey reef Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, silvertip C. albimarginatus, tiger Galeocerdo cuvier, and sliteye Loxodon macrorhinus sharks were the most abundant species (>64% of shark abundances). Multivariate regression trees showed that hard coral cover produced the primary split separating shark assemblages. Four indicator species had consistently higher abundances and contributed to explaining most of the differences in shark assemblages: C. amblyrhynchos, C. albimarginatus, G. cuvier, and whitetip reef Triaenodon obesus sharks. Relative distance along the GBRMP had the greatest influence on shark occurrence and species richness, which increased at both ends of the sampling range (southern and northern sites) relative to intermediate latitudes. Hard coral cover and distance across the shelf were also important predictors of shark distribution. The relative abundance of sharks was significantly higher in non-fished sites, highlighting the conservation value and benefits of the GBRMP zoning. However, our results also showed that hard coral cover had a large effect on the abundance of reef-associated shark species, indicating that coral reef health may be important for the success of marine protected areas. Therefore, understanding shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and the drivers responsible for those patterns is essential for developing sound management and conservation approaches.

Evidence of Incipient Forest Transition in Southern Mexico

PubMed Central

Vaca, Raúl Abel; Golicher, Duncan John; Cayuela, Luis; Hewson, Jenny; Steininger, Marc

2012-01-01

Case studies of land use change have suggested that deforestation across Southern Mexico is accelerating. However, forest transition theory predicts that trajectories of change can be modified by economic factors, leading to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in rates of change that may take the form of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). This study aimed to assess the evidence regarding potential forest transition in Southern Mexico by classifying regional forest cover change using Landsat imagery from 1990 through to 2006. Patterns of forest cover change were found to be complex and non-linear. When rates of forest loss were averaged over 342 municipalities using mixed-effects modelling the results showed a significant (p<0.001) overall reduction of the mean rate of forest loss from 0.85% per year in the 1990–2000 period to 0.67% in the 2000–2006 period. The overall regional annual rate of deforestation has fallen from 0.33% to 0.28% from the 1990s to 2000s. A high proportion of the spatial variability in forest cover change cannot be explained statistically. However analysis using spline based general additive models detected underlying relationships between forest cover and income or population density of a form consistent with the EKC. The incipient forest transition has not, as yet, resulted in widespread reforestation. Forest recovery remains below 0.20% per year. Reforestation is mostly the result of passive processes associated with reductions in the intensity of land use. Deforestation continues to occur at high rates in some focal areas. A transition could be accelerated if there were a broader recognition among policy makers that the regional rate of forest loss has now begun to fall. The changing trajectory provides an opportunity to actively restore forest cover through stimulating afforestation and stimulating more sustainable land use practices. The results have clear implications for policy aimed at carbon sequestration through reducing deforestation and enhancing forest growth. PMID:22905123

Evidence of incipient forest transition in Southern Mexico.

PubMed

Vaca, Raúl Abel; Golicher, Duncan John; Cayuela, Luis; Hewson, Jenny; Steininger, Marc

2012-01-01

Case studies of land use change have suggested that deforestation across Southern Mexico is accelerating. However, forest transition theory predicts that trajectories of change can be modified by economic factors, leading to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in rates of change that may take the form of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). This study aimed to assess the evidence regarding potential forest transition in Southern Mexico by classifying regional forest cover change using Landsat imagery from 1990 through to 2006. Patterns of forest cover change were found to be complex and non-linear. When rates of forest loss were averaged over 342 municipalities using mixed-effects modelling the results showed a significant (p<0.001) overall reduction of the mean rate of forest loss from 0.85% per year in the 1990-2000 period to 0.67% in the 2000-2006 period. The overall regional annual rate of deforestation has fallen from 0.33% to 0.28% from the 1990s to 2000s. A high proportion of the spatial variability in forest cover change cannot be explained statistically. However analysis using spline based general additive models detected underlying relationships between forest cover and income or population density of a form consistent with the EKC. The incipient forest transition has not, as yet, resulted in widespread reforestation. Forest recovery remains below 0.20% per year. Reforestation is mostly the result of passive processes associated with reductions in the intensity of land use. Deforestation continues to occur at high rates in some focal areas. A transition could be accelerated if there were a broader recognition among policy makers that the regional rate of forest loss has now begun to fall. The changing trajectory provides an opportunity to actively restore forest cover through stimulating afforestation and stimulating more sustainable land use practices. The results have clear implications for policy aimed at carbon sequestration through reducing deforestation and enhancing forest growth.

Development of a spatial analysis method using ground-based repeat photography to detect changes in the alpine treeline ecotone, Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roush, W.; Munroe, Jeffrey S.; Fagre, D.B.

2007-01-01

Repeat photography is a powerful tool for detection of landscape change over decadal timescales. Here a novel method is presented that applies spatial analysis software to digital photo-pairs, allowing vegetation change to be categorized and quantified. This method is applied to 12 sites within the alpine treeline ecotone of Glacier National Park, Montana, and is used to examine vegetation changes over timescales ranging from 71 to 93 years. Tree cover at the treeline ecotone increased in 10 out of the 12 photo-pairs (mean increase of 60%). Establishment occurred at all sites, infilling occurred at 11 sites. To demonstrate the utility of this method, patterns of tree establishment at treeline are described and the possible causes of changes within the treeline ecotone are discussed. Local factors undoubtedly affect the magnitude and type of the observed changes, however the ubiquity of the increase in tree cover implies a common forcing mechanism. Mean minimum summer temperatures have increased by 1.5??C over the past century and, coupled with variations in the amount of early spring snow water equivalent, likely account for much of the increase in tree cover at the treeline ecotone. Lastly, shortcomings of this method are presented along with possible solutions and areas for future research. ?? 2007 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Quantifying terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Yin, Runsheng; Li, Zhengpeng; Deng, Yulin; Tan, Kun; Deng, Xiangzheng; Rothstein, David; Qi, Jiaguo; Yin, Runsheng

2009-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon storage and loss. Here we use the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China's upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sinks/source pattern showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon Sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. This highlights the importance of land-use history in determining the regional carbon sinks/source pattern.

Multi-Temporal Multi-Sensor Analysis of Urbanization and Environmental/Climate Impact in China for Sustainable Urban Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ban, Yifang; Gong, Peng; Gamba, Paolo; Taubenbock, Hannes; Du, Peijun

2016-08-01

The overall objective of this research is to investigate multi-temporal, multi-scale, multi-sensor satellite data for analysis of urbanization and environmental/climate impact in China to support sustainable planning. Multi- temporal multi-scale SAR and optical data have been evaluated for urban information extraction using innovative methods and algorithms, including KTH- Pavia Urban Extractor, Pavia UEXT, and an "exclusion- inclusion" framework for urban extent extraction, and KTH-SEG, a novel object-based classification method for detailed urban land cover mapping. Various pixel- based and object-based change detection algorithms were also developed to extract urban changes. Several Chinese cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are selected as study areas. Spatio-temporal urbanization patterns and environmental impact at regional, metropolitan and city core were evaluated through ecosystem service, landscape metrics, spatial indices, and/or their combinations. The relationship between land surface temperature and land-cover classes was also analyzed.The urban extraction results showed that urban areas and small towns could be well extracted using multitemporal SAR data with the KTH-Pavia Urban Extractor and UEXT. The fusion of SAR data at multiple scales from multiple sensors was proven to improve urban extraction. For urban land cover mapping, the results show that the fusion of multitemporal SAR and optical data could produce detailed land cover maps with improved accuracy than that of SAR or optical data alone. Pixel-based and object-based change detection algorithms developed with the project were effective to extract urban changes. Comparing the urban land cover results from mulitemporal multisensor data, the environmental impact analysis indicates major losses for food supply, noise reduction, runoff mitigation, waste treatment and global climate regulation services through landscape structural changes in terms of decreases in service area, edge contamination and fragmentation. In terms ofclimate impact, the results indicate that land surface temperature can be related to land use/land cover classes.

Monitoring land use/land cover changes using CORINE land cover data: a case study of Silivri coastal zone in Metropolitan Istanbul.

PubMed

Yilmaz, Rüya

2010-06-01

The objective of the present study was to assess changes in land use/land cover patterns in the coastal town of Silivri, a part of greater Istanbul administratively. In the assessment, remotely sensed data, in the form of satellite images, and geographic information systems were used. Types of land use/land cover were designated as the percentage of the total area studied. Results calculated from the satellite data for land cover classification were compared successfully with the database Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE). This served as a reference to appraise the reliability of the study presented here. The CORINE Program was established by the European Commission to create a harmonized Geographical Information System on the state of the environment in the European Community. Unplanned urbanization is causing land use changes mainly in developing countries such as Turkey. This situation in Turkey is frequently observed in the city of Istanbul. There are only a few studies of land use-land cover changes which provide an integrated assessment of the biophysical and societal causes and consequences of environmental degradation in Istanbul. The research area comprised greater Silivri Town which is situated by the coast of Marmara Sea, and it is located approximately 60 km west of Istanbul. The city of Istanbul is one of the largest metropolises in Europe with ca. 15 million inhabitants. Additionally, greater Silivri is located near the terminal point of the state highway connecting Istanbul with Europe. Measuring of changes occurring in land use would help control future planning of settlements; hence, it is of importance for the Greater Silivri and Silivri Town. Following our evaluations, coastal zone of Silivri was classified into the land use groups of artificial surfaces agricultural areas and forests and seminatural areas with 47.1%, 12.66%, and 22.62%, respectively.

A 350 Year Cloud Cover Reconstruction Deduced from Caribbean Coral Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Amos; Sammarco, Paul; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Jury, Mark; Zanchettin, Davide

2015-04-01

Clouds are a major factor contributing to climate change with respect to a variety of effects on the earth's climates, primarily radiative effects, amelioration of heating, and regional changes in precipitation patterns. There have been very few studies of decadal and longer term changes in cloud cover in the tropics and sub-tropics, both over land and the ocean. In the tropics, there is great uncertainty regarding how global warming will affect cloud cover. Observational satellite data is so short that it is difficult to discern any temporal trends. The skeletons of scleractinian corals are considered to contain among the best records of high-resolution (sub-annual) environmental variability in the tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Corals generally live in well-mixed coastal regions and can often record environmental conditions of large areas of the upper ocean. This is particularly the case at low latitudes. Scleractinian corals are sessile, epibenthic fauna, and the type of environmental information recorded at the location where the coral has been living is dependent upon the species of coral considered and proxy index of interest. Zooxanthellate hermatypic corals in tropical and sub-tropical seas precipitate CaCO3 skeletons as they grow. This growth is made possible through the manufacture of CaCO3 crystals, facilitated by the zooxanthellae. During the process of crystallization, the holobiont binds carbon of different isotopes into the crystals. Stable carbon isotope concentrations vary with a variety of environmental conditions. In the Caribbean, δ13C in corals of the species Montastraea faveolata can be used as a proxy for changes in cloud cover. In this contribution, we will demonstrate that the stable isotope 13C varies concomitantly with cloud cover and present a new reconstruction of cloud cover over the Caribbean Sea that extends back to the year 1760. We will show that there is good agreement between the main features of our coral proxy record of cloud cover and of reanalysis and climate simulations for the same time period.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.

Assessment of Land Degradation and Greening in Ken River Basin of Central India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Ashish; Palmate, Santosh S.

2017-04-01

Natural systems have significant impact of land degradation on biodiversity loss, food and water insecurity. To achieve the sustainable development goals, advances in remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) are progressively utilized to combat climate change, land degradation and poverty issues of developing country. The Ken River Basin (KRB) has dominating land cover pattern of agriculture and forest area. Nowadays, this pattern is affected due to climate change and anthropogenic activity like deforestation. In this study, land degradation and greening status of KRB of Central India during the years 2001 to 2013 have been assessed using MODIS land cover (MCD12Q1) data sets. International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) land cover data has been extracted from the MCD12Q1 data product. Multiple rasters of MODIS landcover were analyzed and compared for assigning unique combination of land cover dynamics employing ArcGIS software. Result reveals that 14.38% natural vegetation was degraded, and crop land and woody savannas were greened by 9.68% to 6.94% respectively. Natural vegetation degradation have been observed in the upper KRB area, and resulted to increase in crop land (3418.87 km2) and woody savannas (1242.23 km2) area. Due to transition of 1043.6 km2 area of deciduous broadleaf forest to woody savannas greening was also observed. Moreover, both crop land and woody savannas showed inter-transitions of 669.31 km2 into crop land to woody savannas, and 874.09 km2 into woody savannas to crop land. The present analysis reveals that natural vegetation has more land conversions into woody savannas and crop land in the KRB area. Further, Spatial change analysis shows that land degradation and greening has occurred mostly in the upper part of the KRB. The study reveals that the land transition information can be useful for proper planning and management of natural resources.

Ten year change in forest succession and composition measured by remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Forrest G.; Botkin, Daniel B.; Strebel, Donald E.; Woods, Kerry K.; Goetz, Scott J.

1987-01-01

Vegetation dynamics and changes in ecological patterns were measured by remote sensing over a 10 year period (1973 to 1983) for 148,406 landscape elements, covering more than 500 sq km in a protected forested wilderness. Quantitative measurements were made possible by methods to detect ecologically meaningful landscape units; these allowed measurement of ecological transition frequencies and calculation of expected recurrence times. Measured ecological transition frequencies reveal boreal forest wilderness as spatially heterogeneous and highly dynamic, with one-sixth of the area in clearings and early successional stages, consistent with recent postulates about the spatial and temporal patterns of natural ecosystems. Differences between managed forest areas and a protected wilderness allow assessment of different management regimes.

Monitoring land use/land cover transformations from 1945 to 2007 in two peri-urban mountainous areas of Athens metropolitan area, Greece.

PubMed

Mallinis, Giorgos; Koutsias, Nikos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2014-08-15

The aims of this study were to map and analyze land use/land cover transitions and landscape changes in the Parnitha and Penteli mountains, which surround the Athens metropolitan area of Attica, Greece over a period of 62 years. In order to quantify the changes between land categories through time, we computed the transition matrices for three distinct periods (1945-1960, 1960-1996, and 1996-2007), on the basis of available aerial photographs used to create multi-temporal maps. We identified systematic and stationary transitions with multi-level intensity analysis. Forest areas in Parnitha remained the dominant class of land cover throughout the 62 years studied, while transitional woodlands and shrublands were the main classes involved in LULC transitions. Conversely, in Penteli, transitional woodlands, along with shrublands, dominated the study site. The annual rate of change was faster in the first and third time intervals, compared to the second (1960-1996) time interval, in both study areas. The category level analysis results indicated that in both sites annual crops avoided to gain while discontinuous urban fabric avoided to lose areas. At the transition level of analysis, similarities as well as distinct differences existed between the two areas. In both sites the gaining pattern of permanent crops with respect to annual crops and the gain of forest with respect to transitional woodland/shrublands were stationary across the three time intervals. Overall, we identified more systematic transitions and stationary processes in Penteli. We discussed these LULC changes and associated them with human interference (activity) and other major socio-economic developments that were simultaneously occurring in the area. The different patterns of change of the areas, despite their geographical proximity, throughout the period of analysis imply that site-specific studies are needed in order to comprehensively assess the driving forces and develop models of landscape transformation in Mediterranean areas. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

Distal-less induces elemental color patterns in Junonia butterfly wings.

PubMed

Dhungel, Bidur; Ohno, Yoshikazu; Matayoshi, Rie; Iwasaki, Mayo; Taira, Wataru; Adhikari, Kiran; Gurung, Raj; Otaki, Joji M

2016-01-01

The border ocellus, or eyespot, is a conspicuous color pattern element in butterfly wings. For two decades, it has been hypothesized that transcription factors such as Distal-less (Dll) are responsible for eyespot pattern development in butterfly wings, based on their expression in the prospective eyespots. In particular, it has been suggested that Dll is a determinant for eyespot size. However, functional evidence for this hypothesis has remained incomplete, due to technical difficulties. Here, we show that ectopically expressed Dll induces ectopic elemental color patterns in the adult wings of the blue pansy butterfly, Junonia orithya (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae). Using baculovirus-mediated gene transfer, we misexpressed Dll protein fused with green fluorescent protein (GFP) in pupal wings, resulting in ectopic color patterns, but not the formation of intact eyespots. Induced changes included clusters of black and orange scales (a basic feature of eyespot patterns), black and gray scales, and inhibition of cover scale development. In contrast, ectopic expression of GFP alone did not induce any color pattern changes using the same baculovirus-mediated gene transfer system. These results suggest that Dll plays an instructive role in the development of color pattern elements in butterfly wings, although Dll alone may not be sufficient to induce a complete eyespot. This study thus experimentally supports the hypothesis of Dll function in eyespot development.

Spatial Correlations of Anomaly Time Series of AIRS Version-6 Land Surface Skin Temperatures with the Nino-4 Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae N.; Iredell, Lena

2013-01-01

The AIRS Science Team Version-6 data set is a valuable resource for meteorological studies. Quality Controlled earth's surface skin temperatures are produced on a 45 km x 45 km spatial scale under most cloud cover conditions. The same retrieval algorithm is used for all surface types under all conditions. This study used eleven years of AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature and cloud cover products to show that land surface skin temperatures have decreased significantly in some areas and increased significantly in other areas over the period September 2002 through August 2013. These changes occurred primarily at 1:30 PM but not at 1:30 AM. Cooling land areas contained corresponding increases in cloud cover over this time period, with the reverse being true for warming land areas. The cloud cover anomaly patterns for a given month are affected significantly by El Nino/La Nina activity, and anomalies in cloud cover are a driving force behind anomalies in land surface skin temperature.

Long-term changes in the planktonic cnidarian community in a mesoscale area of the NW Mediterranean

PubMed Central

Gili, Josep-Maria; Grinyó, Jordi; Raya, Vanesa; Sabatés, Ana

2018-01-01

In the present work, possible long-term changes in the planktonic cnidarian community were investigated by analyzing (1) species and community spatial distribution patterns, (2) variations in abundance and (3) changes in species richness during three mesoscale surveys representative of the climatic and anthropogenic changes that have occurred during the last three decades (years: 1983, 2004 and 2011) in the NW Mediterranean. These surveys were conducted during the summer (June) along the Catalan coast. All surveys covered the same area, used the same sampling methodology, and taxonomic identification was conducted by the same team of experts. An increase in the abundance of total cnidaria was found from 1983 to 2011. The siphonophore Muggiaea atlantica and the hydromedusa Aglaura hemistoma were the most abundant species, while Muggiaea kochii presented the largest abundance increment over time. Temperature was the main environmental parameter driving significant differences in the cnidarian community composition, abundance and spatial distribution patterns among the surveys. Our results suggest that in the current climate change scenario, warm-water species abundances will be positively favored, and the community will suffer changes in their latitudinal distribution patterns. We consider it extremely important to study and monitor gelatinous zooplankton in mesoscale spatial areas to understand not only long-term changes in abundances but also changes in their spatial distributions since spatial changes are sensitive indicators of climate change. PMID:29715282

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

PubMed Central

Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in the United States--the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Griffith, Glenn; Acevedo, William; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Ryan, Christy; Sayler, Kristi L.; Sleeter, Rachel; Soulard, Christopher E.

2012-01-01

Detecting, quantifying, and projecting historical and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) has emerged as a core research area for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Changes in LULC are important drivers of changes to biogeochemical cycles, the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, biodiversity, water quality, and climate change. To quantify the rates of recent historical LULC change, the USGS Land Cover Trends project recently completed a unique ecoregion-based assessment of late 20th century LULC change for the western United States. To characterize present LULC, the USGS and partners have created the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 1992, 2001, and 2006. Both Land Cover Trends and NLCD projects continue to evolve in an effort to better characterize historical and present LULC conditions and are the foundation of the data presented in this report. Projecting future changes in LULC requires an understanding of the rates and patterns of change, the major driving forces, and the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants and capacities of regions. The data presented in this report is the result of an effort by USGS scientists to downscale the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) to ecoregions of the conterminous United States as part of the USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment. The USGS biological carbon assessment was mandated by Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. As part of the legislative mandate, the USGS is required to publish a methodology describing, in detail, the approach to be used for the assessment. The development of future LULC scenarios is described in chapter 3.2 and appendix A. Spatial modeling is described in chapter 3.3.2 and appendix B and in Sohl and others (2011). In this report, we briefly summarize the major components and methods used to downscale IPCC-SRES scenarios to ecoregions of the conterminous United States, followed by a description of the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion, and lastly a description of the data being published as part of this report.

Regional Patterns in Invertebrate Assemblages on Offshore Oil Platforms Along the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaleski, S.; Page, H. M.; Miller, R. J.; Doheny, B.; Dugan, J. E.; Schroeder, D. M.

2016-02-01

Twenty-seven oil and gas platforms are arrayed offshore California from north of Point Conception south to San Pedro Bay (a coastline distance of >300 km). To test the hypothesis that variability in the structure of sessile invertebrate communities on the platforms is associated with regional differences in sea surface temperature, we sampled space-holding invertebrate taxa photographically on 23 platforms and compared the composition and cover of invertebrates among and within regions using multivariate analyses. To explore temporal variability in invertebrate assemblages, we also compared the cover and composition of invertebrates on a subset of platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel (SBC) where data were collected over ten years previously. The composition of invertebrate assemblages differed significantly among regions, and was driven by variation in the relative abundance of certain anemone, bryozoan, tubiferous annelid, sponge, and bivalve taxa. The presence of non-native bryozoan and anemone taxa on some platforms in the south (San Pedro Bay) and southeast SBC contributed to the distinction of these assemblages from the others. Comparison of survey data on the subset of platforms in the SBC surveyed over ten years apart revealed little change in the cover of major space-holding taxa (e.g., anemones Metridium, Corynactis) across platforms, although there was an increase in cover of the non-native bryozoan Watersipora subtorquata between surveys. The existence of geographical patterns in the composition of platform invertebrate assemblages suggests that these assemblages may be useful as barometers of short and longer-term environmental change. For biogeographic transition zones, such as the SBC, monitoring of platform invertebrate assemblages could permit an evaluation of the concept that these zones are particularly susceptible to shifts in the composition of marine species driven by ocean climate.

Distributed Modelling of Stormflow Generation: Assessing the Effect of Ground Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarihani, B.; Sidle, R. C.; Roth, C. H.; Bartley, R.; Wilkinson, S. N.

2017-12-01

Understanding the effects of grazing management and land cover changes on surface hydrology is important for water resources and land management. A distributed hydrological modelling platform, wflow, (that was developed as part of Deltares's OpenStreams project) is used to assess the effect of land management practices on runoff generation processes. The model was applied to Weany Creek, a small catchment (13.6 km2) of the Burdekin Basin, North Australia, which is being studied to understand sources of sediment and nutrients to the Great Barrier Reef. Satellite and drone-based ground cover data, high resolution topography from LiDAR, soil properties, and distributed rainfall data were used to parameterise the model. Wflow was used to predict total runoff, peak runoff, time of rise, and lag time for several events of varying magnitudes and antecedent moisture conditions. A nested approach was employed to calibrate the model by using recorded flow hydrographs at three scales: (1) a hillslope sub-catchment: (2) a gullied sub-catchment; and the 13.6 km2 catchment outlet. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and predicted stormflow hydrograph attributes using the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric. By using a nested approach, spatiotemporal patterns of overland flow occurrence across the catchment can also be evaluated. The results show that a process-based distributed model can be calibrated to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of runoff generation processes, to help identify dominant processes which may be addressed by land management to improve rainfall retention. The model will be used to assess the effects of ground cover changes due to management practices in grazed lands on storm runoff.

Effects of climate warming and prolonged snow cover on phenology of the early life history stages of four alpine herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Guoyan; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Yang, Xuejun; Liu, Guofang; Ye, Xuehua; Zhang, Xinshi; Huang, Zhenying

2018-06-21

Much research has focused on plant responses to ongoing climate change, but there is relatively little information about how climate change will affect the early plant life history stages. Understanding how global warming and changes in winter snow pattern will affect seed germination and seedling establishment is crucial for predicting future alpine population and vegetation dynamics. In a 2-year study, we tested how warming and alteration in the snowmelt regime, both in isolation and combination, influence seedling emergence phenology, first-year growth, biomass allocation, and survival of four native alpine perennial herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Warming promoted seedling emergence phenology of all four species and biomass per plant of two species but reduced seedling survival of three species. Prolonged snow cover partly mediated the affects of warming on Primula alpicola (survival and biomass), Pedicularis fletcheri (phenology, biomass, and root:shoot ratio) and Meconopsis integrifolia (survival). For the narrowly distributed species M. racemosa, seedling growth was additively decreased by warming and prolonged snow cover. Both warming and alteration of the snow cover regime can influence plant recruitment by affecting seedling phenology, growth, and survival, and the effects are largely species-specific. Thus, climate change is likely to affect population dynamics and community structure of the alpine ecosystem. This is the first experimental demonstration of the phenological advancement of seedling emergence in the field by simulated climate warming. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

Forest disturbances, deforestation and timber harvest patterns in the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boschetti, L.; Huo, L. Z.

2016-12-01

Current estimates of carbon-equivalent emissions report the contribution of deforestation as 12% of total anthropogenic carbon emissions (van der Werf et al., 2009), but accurate monitoring of forest carbon balance should discriminate between land use change related to forest natural disturbances, forest management and deforestation. The total change in forest cover (Gross Forest Cover Loss, GFCL) needs to be characterized based on the cause (natural/human) and on the outcome of the change (regeneration to forest/transition to non-forest)(Kurtz et al, 2010). We developed a multitemporal, object-oriented methodology to classify GFCL as either (a) deforestation, (b) fire and insect disturbances (c) forest management practices. The Landsat-derived University of Maryland Global Forest Change product (Hansen, 2013) is used to identify all the areas forest cover loss: those areas are subsequently converted to objects, and used to extract temporal profiles of spectral reflectances and spectral indices from the Landsat WELD dataset. Finally, the temporal profiles and descriptive parameters of shapes, textures, and spatial relationships of the objects are used in a rule-based classifier to identify the type of disturbance. To pathfind a global disturbance type classification, the methods are demonstrated by wall-to-wall classification of the forest cover loss in the conterminous United States for the 2002-2011 period. The results show that deforestation accounts for a small percentage (approximately 2%) of the GFCL in the CONUS, and are in agreement with the known patterns of logging activity, fire and insect damage. The time series of timber harvest clearcut is also in agreement with the national timber extraction statistics, showing reduced harvesting following the 2008 economic crisis. The results also highlight the different management practices on private and public lands: 36% of the US forests are publicly owned (federal, state and local institutions) but account only for 12% of the clearcuts, whereas private lands (64% of the total) account for 88% of the clearcut area. Conversely, stand replacing fire and insect disturbances affect primarily public lands (85% versus 15% on private lands).

Flood risk reduction and flow buffering as ecosystem services - Part 2: Land use and rainfall intensity effects in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Noordwijk, Meine; Tanika, Lisa; Lusiana, Betha

2017-05-01

Watersheds buffer the temporal pattern of river flow relative to the temporal pattern of rainfall. This ecosystem service is inherent to geology and climate, but buffering also responds to human use and misuse of the landscape. Buffering can be part of management feedback loops if salient, credible and legitimate indicators are used. The flow persistence parameter Fp in a parsimonious recursive model of river flow (Part 1, van Noordwijk et al., 2017) couples the transmission of extreme rainfall events (1 - Fp), to the annual base-flow fraction of a watershed (Fp). Here we compare Fp estimates from four meso-scale watersheds in Indonesia (Cidanau, Way Besai and Bialo) and Thailand (Mae Chaem), with varying climate, geology and land cover history, at a decadal timescale. The likely response in each of these four to variation in rainfall properties (including the maximum hourly rainfall intensity) and land cover (comparing scenarios with either more or less forest and tree cover than the current situation) was explored through a basic daily water-balance model, GenRiver. This model was calibrated for each site on existing data, before being used for alternative land cover and rainfall parameter settings. In both data and model runs, the wet-season (3-monthly) Fp values were consistently lower than dry-season values for all four sites. Across the four catchments Fp values decreased with increasing annual rainfall, but specific aspects of watersheds, such as the riparian swamp (peat soils) in Cidanau reduced effects of land use change in the upper watershed. Increasing the mean rainfall intensity (at constant monthly totals for rainfall) around the values considered typical for each landscape was predicted to cause a decrease in Fp values by between 0.047 (Bialo) and 0.261 (Mae Chaem). Sensitivity of Fp to changes in land use change plus changes in rainfall intensity depends on other characteristics of the watersheds, and generalisations made on the basis of one or two case studies may not hold, even within the same climatic zone. A wet-season Fp value above 0.7 was achievable in forest-agroforestry mosaic case studies. Inter-annual variability in Fp is large relative to effects of land cover change. Multiple (5-10) years of paired-plot data would generally be needed to reject no-change null hypotheses on the effects of land use change (degradation and restoration). Fp trends over time serve as a holistic scale-dependent performance indicator of degrading/recovering watershed health and can be tested for acceptability and acceptance in a wider social-ecological context.

Remotely Sensed Spatio-Temporal Variability of Snow Cover in Himalayan Region with Perspective of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, S.; Ojha, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change and its impact of water resource have gained tremendous attention among scientific committee, governments and other stakeholders since last couple of decades, especially in Himalayan region. In this study, we purpose remotely sensed measurements to monitor snow cover, both spatially and temporal, and assess climate change impact on water resource. The snow cover data from MODIS satellite (2000-2010) have been used to analyze some climate change indicators. In particular, the variability in the maximum snow extent with elevations, its temporal variability (8-day, monthly, seasonal and annual), its variation trend and its relation with temperature have been analyzed. The snow products used in this study are the maximum snow extent and fractional snow covers, which come in 8-day temporal and 500m and 0.05 degree spatial resolutions, respectively. The results showed a tremendous potential of the MODIS snow product for studying the spatial and temporal variability of snow as well as the study of climate change impact in large and inaccessible regions like the Himalayas. The snow area extent (SAE) (%) time series exhibits similar patterns during seven hydrological years, even though there are some deviations in the accumulation and melt periods. The analysis showed relatively well inverse relation between the daily mean temperature and SAE during the melting period. Some important trends of snow fall are also observed. In particular, the decreasing trend in January and increasing trend in late winter and early spring may be interpreted as a signal of a possible seasonal shift. However, it requires more years of data to verify this conclusion.

Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

2017-09-01

Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Integrating global satellite-derived data products as a pre-analysis for hydrological modelling studies: a case study for the Red River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With changes in weather patterns and intensifying anthropogenic water use, there is an increasing need for spatio-temporal information on water fluxes and stocks in river basins. The assortment of satellite-derived open-access information sources on rainfall (P) and land use / land cover (LULC) is c...

Summaries of the Regional Conferences Held in Preparation for the Second International Congress on Technical and Vocational Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

UNEVOC Info, 1999

1999-01-01

In 1998, five regional conferences were held in preparation for the Second International Congress on Technical and Vocational Education (TVE). The Asia-Pacific regional conference focused on challenges of the 21st century, demands of the world of work, and changing patterns in the delivery of training programs. The European symposium covered five…

Early warning signals of regime shifts from cross-scale connectivity of land-cover patterns

Treesearch

Giovanni Zurlini; Kenneth Bruce Jones; Kurt Hans Riitters; Bai-Lian Li; Irene Petrosillo

2014-01-01

Increasing external pressures from human activities and climate change can lead to desertification, affecting the livelihood of more than 25% of the world’s population. Thus, determining proximity to transition to desertification is particularly central for arid regions before they may convert into deserts, and recent research has focused on devising early warning...

Changes in vegetation structure and diversity after grass-to-forest succession in a Southern Appalachian watershed

Treesearch

Katherine J. Elliott; Lindsay R. Boring; Wayne T. Swank

1998-01-01

To document how species richness and diversity (H!) recover from severe large-scale disturbance, we report temporal patterns of species composition and diversity following grass-to-forest succession from a long-term experiment in the Coweeta Basin, western North Carolina. The original experiment -- clear-cutting, 5 yr of grass cover followed by a herbicide treatment,...

76 FR 70520 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-14

.... Surveillance for opening price manipulation and other existing surveillance patterns are utilized to monitor... exchanges, covered securities were required to have a closing market price of at least $7.50 per share for... proposing the $3 per share closing market price requirement and the five-day ``look back'' period that is...

Changes in Patterns of Understory Leaf Phenology and Herbivory following Hurricane Damage.

Treesearch

Pilar Angulo-Sandoval; H. Fernandez-Marin; J. K. Zimmerman; T. M. Aide

2004-01-01

Hurricanes are important disturbance events in many forested ecosystems. They can have strong effects on both forest structure and animal populations, and yet few studies have considered the impacts on plant–animal interactions. Reduction of canopy cover by severe winds increases light availability to understory plants, providing an opportunity for increased growth. An...

Using NDVI to assess vegetative land cover change in central Puget Sound.

PubMed

Morawitz, Dana F; Blewett, Tina M; Cohen, Alex; Alberti, Marina

2006-03-01

We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the rapidly growing Puget Sound region over three 5-year time blocks between 1986-1999 at three spatial scales in 42 Watershed Administrative Units (WAUs) to assess changes in the amounts and patterns of green vegetation. On average, approximately 20% of the area in each WAU experienced significant NDVI change over each 5-year time block. Cumulative NDVI change over 15 years (summing change over each 5-year time block) was an average of approximately 60% of each WAU, but was as high as 100% in some. At the regional scale, seasonal weather patterns and green-up from logging were the primary drivers of observed increases in NDVI values. At the WAU scale, anthropogenic factors were important drivers of both positive and negative NDVI change. For example, population density was highly correlated with negative NDVI change over 15 years (r = 0.66, P < 0.01), as was road density (r = 0.71, P < 0.01). At the smallest scale (within 3 case study WAUs) land use differences such as preserving versus harvesting forest lands drove vegetation change. We conclude that large areas within most watersheds are continually and heavily impacted by the high levels of human use and development over short time periods. Our results indicate that varying patterns and processes can be detected at multiple scales using changes in NDVIa values.

Deforestation trends of tropical dry forests in central Brazil

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bianchi, Carlos A.; Haig, Susan M.

2013-01-01

Tropical dry forests are the most threatened forest type in the world yet a paucity of research about them stymies development of appropriate conservation actions. The Paranã River Basin has the most significant dry forest formations in the Cerrado biome of central Brazil and is threatened by intense land conversion to pastures and agriculture. We examined changes in Paranã River Basin deforestation rates and fragmentation across three time intervals that covered 31 yr using Landsat imagery. Our results indicated a 66.3 percent decrease in forest extent between 1977 and 2008, with an annual rate of forest cover change of 3.5 percent. Landscape metrics further indicated severe forest loss and fragmentation, resulting in an increase in the number of fragments and reduction in patch sizes. Forest fragments in flatlands have virtually disappeared and the only significant forest remnants are mostly found over limestone outcrops in the eastern part of the basin. If current patterns persist, we project that these forests will likely disappear within 25 yr. These patterns may be reversed with creation of protected areas and involvement of local people to preserve small fragments that can be managed for restoration.

Factors Determining Forest Diversity and Biomass on a Tropical Volcano, Mt. Rinjani, Lombok, Indonesia

PubMed Central

Dossa, Gbadamassi G. O.; Paudel, Ekananda; Fujinuma, Junichi; Yu, Haiying; Chutipong, Wanlop; Zhang, Yuan; Paz, Sherryl; Harrison, Rhett D.

2013-01-01

Tropical volcanoes are an important but understudied ecosystem, and the relationships between plant species diversity and compositional change and elevation may differ from mountains created by uplift, because of their younger and more homogeneous soils. We sampled vegetation over an altitudinal gradient on Mt. Rinjani, Lombok, Indonesia. We modeled alpha- (plot) and beta- (among plot) diversity (Fisher's alpha), compositional change, and biomass against elevation and selected covariates. We also examined community phylogenetic structure across the elevational gradient. We recorded 902 trees and shrubs among 92 species, and 67 species of ground-cover plants. For understorey, subcanopy and canopy plants, an increase in elevation was associated with a decline in alpha-diversity, whereas data for ground-cover plants suggested a hump-shaped pattern. Elevation was consistently the most important factor in determining alpha-diversity for all components. The alpha-diversity of ground-cover vegetation was also negatively correlated with leaf area index, which suggests low light conditions in the understorey may limit diversity at lower elevations. Beta-diversity increased with elevation for ground-cover plants and declined at higher elevations for other components of the vegetation. However, statistical power was low and we could not resolve the relative importance to beta-diversity of different factors. Multivariate GLMs of variation in community composition among plots explained 67.05%, 27.63%, 18.24%, and 19.80% of the variation (deviance) for ground-cover, understorey, subcanopy and canopy plants, respectively, and demonstrated that elevation was a consistently important factor in determining community composition. Above-ground biomass showed no significant pattern with elevation and was also not significantly associated with alpha-diversity. At lower elevations communities had a random phylogenetic structure, but from 1600 m communities were phylogenetically clustered. This suggests a greater role of environmental filtering at higher elevations, and thus provides a possible explanation for the observed decline in diversity with elevation. PMID:23935842

Operationalizing land cover/land use data products to support decision making in the forestry sector of Hindu Kush Himalaya region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qamer, F. M.; Gilani, H.; Uddin, K.; Pradhan, S.; Murthy, M.; Bajracharya, B.

2014-12-01

The Himalayan mountain ecosystem is under severe stress due to population pressure and overexploitation, which is now being further compounded by climate change. Particularly the Himalayan mountain forests has been degrading since the 1850s, in the early years of British administration. Consistent country-wide and local level data are needed to show the patterns and processes of degradation as a basis for developing management strategies to halt degradation and ensure long-term sustainability. Realizing the need for developing consistent national and regional databases in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, with adequate spatial and temporal resolutions to be used by resource managers for informed decision making, time series land cover maps were developed for 1990, 2000, and 2010 based on the Landsat images. Considering forest sector as a primary user, a special attention was given to forest cover interpretation and relevant professional from national forestry institutions of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan were closely engaged in developing standardized data products. With the use of consistent datasets and interpretation methods, this study provides first systematic assessment on forest cover distribution and change patterns during last two decades in these countries. At the same time, the results compiled at sub-district administrative unit, may facilitate institutions in developing appropriate forest conservation strategies, ecosystem vulnerability assessment and ecosystem services valuation at local level. To promote such usages, national forestry institutions are being closely engaged in a number of capacity building activities at national and regional level. In context of Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) initiatives, these datasets are also being evaluated to be considered as baseline for deforestation and degradation rates in the respective countries. To promote easy and open access, a web system was developed which provides functions to understand land cover dynamics in relations to country's ecological distribution and administrative structure.

Satellite geological and geophysical remote sensing of Iceland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. S., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provides sufficient resolution to discern two effects of geothermal activity at the Namafjall geothermal area: snowmelt anomalies and delineation of altered ground. The fallout pattern of tephra from Hekla's 1970 volcanic eruption can be mapped where sufficient depth of deposition destroyed the vegetation. Lava flows from the volcanic eruptions at Askja and Hekla can be delineated. Low sun-angle imagery of snow-covered terrain has permitted the mapping of new structural and volcanic features beneath the icecaps. Coastline changes on the islands of Surtsey and Heimaey can be mapped. Variations of sediment plumes from glacial rivers on the south coast give a qualitative indication of seasonal changes in melting rates of glaciers. ERTS-1 imagery has been shown to be especially amenable to portrayal of changing glaciological phenomena: surging glaciers, collapse features in icecaps caused by subglacial volcanic (?) and geothermal activity and resulting jokulhlaups, and variations in size of glacier-margin lakes. A fifth vegetation class has now been added: lichen-covered bedrock. The high latitude permits more precise analysis of landforms, vegetation distribution, occurrence of snow cover, glaciers, and geologic structure.

Continental-scale Sensitivity of Water Yield to Changes in Impervious Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, P.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S.; Cohen, E.; Moore Myers, J.

2012-12-01

Projected land conversion from native forest, grassland, and shrubland to urban impervious cover will alter watershed water balances by reducing groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration, increasing surface runoff, and potentially altering regional weather patterns. These hydrologic changes have important ecohydrological implications to local watersheds, including stream channel habitat degradation and the loss of aquatic biodiversity. Many observational studies have evaluated the impact of urbanization on water yield in small catchments downstream of specific urban areas. However it is often difficult to separate the impact of impervious cover from other impacts of urbanization such as leaking water infrastructure, irrigation runoff, water supply withdrawals, and effluent discharge. In addition, the impact of impervious cover has not been evaluated at scales large enough to assess spatial differences in water yield sensitivity to changes in impervious cover. The objective of this study was to assess the sensitivity of water yield to impervious cover across the conterminous U.S., and to identify locations where water yield will be most impacted by future urbanization. We used the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model to simulate monthly water yield as impacted by impervious cover for the approximately 82,000 12-digit HUC watersheds across the conterminous U.S. WaSSI computed infiltration, surface runoff, soil moisture, and baseflow processes explicitly for ten vegetative land cover classes and impervious cover in each watershed using the 2006 National Land Cover Dataset estimates of impervious cover. Our results indicate that impervious cover has increased total water yield in urban areas (relative to native vegetation), and that the increase was most significant during the growing season. The proportion of stream flow that occurred as baseflow decreased, even though total water yield increased as a result of impervious cover. Water yield was most sensitive to changes in impervious cover in areas where annual evapotranspiration is high relative to precipitation (e.g. the Southwestern States, Texas, and Florida). Water yield was less sensitive in areas with low evapotranspiration relative to precipitation (e.g. Pacific Northwest and Northeastern States). Additionally, water yield was most impacted when high evapotranspiration land cover types (e.g. forests) were converted to impervious cover than when lower evapotranspiration land cover types (e.g. grassland) were converted. Using projections of future impervious cover provided by the U.S. EPA Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project, water yield in urban areas of the Southwest, Texas, and Florida will be the most impacted by 2050, in part because these areas are projected to have significant increases in impervious cover, but also because they are in areas where evapotranspiration is high relative to precipitation. Our study suggests that watershed management should consider the climate-driven sensitivity of water yield to increases in impervious cover and the type of land cover being converted in addition to the magnitude of projected increases in impervious cover when evaluating impacts of urbanization on water resources.

Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states.

PubMed

Staver, A Carla; Archibald, Sally; Levin, Simon

2011-05-01

Savannas are known as ecosystems with tree cover below climate-defined equilibrium values. However, a predictive framework for understanding constraints on tree cover is lacking. We present (a) a spatially extensive analysis of tree cover and fire distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, and (b) a model, based on empirical results, demonstrating that savanna and forest may be alternative stable states in parts of Africa, with implications for understanding savanna distributions. Tree cover does not increase continuously with rainfall, but rather is constrained to low (<50%, "savanna") or high tree cover (>75%, "forest"). Intermediate tree cover rarely occurs. Fire, which prevents trees from establishing, differentiates high and low tree cover, especially in areas with rainfall between 1000 mm and 2000 mm. Fire is less important at low rainfall (<1000 mm), where rainfall limits tree cover, and at high rainfall (>2000 mm), where fire is rare. This pattern suggests that complex interactions between climate and disturbance produce emergent alternative states in tree cover. The relationship between tree cover and fire was incorporated into a dynamic model including grass, savanna tree saplings, and savanna trees. Only recruitment from sapling to adult tree varied depending on the amount of grass in the system. Based on our empirical analysis and previous work, fires spread only at tree cover of 40% or less, producing a sigmoidal fire probability distribution as a function of grass cover and therefore a sigmoidal sapling to tree recruitment function. This model demonstrates that, given relatively conservative and empirically supported assumptions about the establishment of trees in savannas, alternative stable states for the same set of environmental conditions (i.e., model parameters) are possible via a fire feedback mechanism. Integrating alternative stable state dynamics into models of biome distributions could improve our ability to predict changes in biome distributions and in carbon storage under climate and global change scenarios.

Mapping spatial patterns with morphological image processing

Treesearch

Peter Vogt; Kurt H. Riitters; Christine Estreguil; Jacek Kozak; Timothy G. Wade; James D. Wickham

2006-01-01

We use morphological image processing for classifying spatial patterns at the pixel level on binary land-cover maps. Land-cover pattern is classified as 'perforated,' 'edge,' 'patch,' and 'core' with higher spatial precision and thematic accuracy compared to a previous approach based on image convolution, while retaining the...

Long-term hydrologic effects on marsh plant community structure in the southern Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busch, David E.; Loftus, W.F.; Bass, O.L.

1998-01-01

Although large-scale transformation of Everglades landscapes has occurred during the past century, the patterns of association among hydrologic factors and southern Everglades freshwater marsh vegetation have not been well-defined. We used a 10-year data base on the aquatic biota of Shark Slough to classify vegetation and describe plant community change in intermediate- to long-hydroperiod Everglades marshes. Study area marsh vegetation was quantitatively grouped into associations dominated by 1) Cladium jamaicense, 2) a group of emergents including Eleocharis cellulosa, Sagittaria lancifolia, and Rhyncospora tracyi, 3) taxa associated with algal mats (Utricularia spp. and Bacopa caroliniana), and 4) the grasses Panicum hemitomon and Paspalidium geminatum. During the decade evaluated, the range of water depths that characterized our study sites approached both extremes depicted in the 40-year hydrologic record for the region. Water depths were near the long-term average during the mid-1980s, declined sharply during a late 1980s drought, and underwent a prolonged increase from 1991 through 1995. Overall macrophyte cover varied inversely with water depth, while the response of periphyton was more complex. An ordination analysis, based on plant species abundance, revealed that study area vegetation structure was associated with hydrologic patterns. Marsh plant community structure showed evidence of cyclic interannual variation corresponding to hydrologic change over the decade evaluated. Lower water depths, the occurrence of marl substrates, and high periphyton cover were correlated. These factors contributed to reduced macrophyte cover in portions of the study area from which water had been diverted.

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of Semiarid Basins in Arizona: A Platform for Land Cover and Climate Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, G. A.; Vivoni, E. R.

2011-12-01

Watershed management is challenged by rising concerns over climate change and its potential to interact with land cover alterations to impact regional water supplies and hydrologic processes. The inability to conduct experimental manipulations that address climate and land cover change at watershed scales limits the capacity of water managers to make decisions to protect future supplies. As a result, spatially-explicit, physically-based models possess value for predicting the possible consequences on watershed hydrology. In this study, we apply a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, soils distribution and availability of hydrologic data in forested regions of northern Arizona. As such, it can serve as a demonstration study in the broader region to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Through a model application to summertime conditions, we compare the hydrologic response from three sources of meteorological input: (1) an available network of ground-based stations, (2) weather radar rainfall estimates, and (3) the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on analysis of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation, evapotranspiration and recharge from the root zone at high resolution for an assessment of sustainable water supplies for agricultural and domestic purposes. We also present a preliminary analysis of the impact of vegetation change arising from historical treatments in the Beaver Creek to inform the hydrologic consequences in the form of soil moisture and evapotranspiration patterns with differing degrees of proposed forest thinning. Our results are discussed in the context of improved hydrologic predictions for sustainability and decision-making under the uncertainties induced by combined climate and land cover change.

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

Climatic effects of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions and associated feedbacks due to vegetation change in the boreal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blichner, Sara Marie; Koren Berntsen, Terje; Stordal, Frode

2017-04-01

As our understanding of the earth system improves, it is becoming increasingly clear that vegetation and ecosystems are not only influenced by the atmosphere, but that changes in these also feed back to the atmosphere and induce changes here. One such feedback involves the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetation. As BVOCs are oxidized, they become less volatile and contribute to aerosol growth and formation in the atmosphere, and can thus change the radiative balance of the atmosphere through both the direct and indirect aerosol effects. The amount and type of BVOCs emitted by vegetation depends on a myriad of variables; temperature, leaf area index (LAI), species, water availability and various types of stress (e.g. insects attacks). They generally increase with higher temperatures and under stress. These factors beg the question of how emissions will change in the future in response to both temperature increase and changes to vegetation patterns and densities. The boreal region is of particular interest because forest cover in general has been thought to have a warming effect due to trees reducing the albedo, especially when snow covers the ground. We investigate feedbacks through BVOC emissions related to the expected northward expansion of boreal forests in response to global warming with a development version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). BVOC emissions are computed by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature 2.1 (MEGAN2.1) which is incorporated into the Community Land Model v4.5 (CLM4.5). The atmospheric component is CAM5.3-Oslo. We will present preliminary results of effects on clouds and aerosol concentrations resulting from a fixed poleward shift in boreal forests and compare the radiative effects of this to changes in surface energy fluxes. CO2-concentrations and sea surface temperatures are kept fixed in order to isolate the effects of the change in vegetation patterns. Finally, these results are compared to simulations of a future climate (corresponding to 2xCO2-concentrations) both with present-day and shifted vegetation patterns.

Performance of a process-based hydrodynamic model in predicting shoreline change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; List, J. H.

2012-12-01

Shoreline change is controlled by a complex combination of processes that include waves, currents, sediment characteristics and availability, geologic framework, human interventions, and sea level rise. A comprehensive data set of shoreline position (14 shorelines between 1978-2002) along the continuous and relatively non-interrupted North Carolina Coast from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras (65 km) reveals a spatial pattern of alternating erosion and accretion, with an erosional average shoreline change rate of -1.6 m/yr and up to -8 m/yr in some locations. This data set gives a unique opportunity to study long-term shoreline change in an area hit by frequent storm events while relatively uninfluenced by human interventions and the effects of tidal inlets. Accurate predictions of long-term shoreline change may require a model that accurately resolves surf zone processes and sediment transport patterns. Conventional methods for predicting shoreline change such as one-line models and regression of shoreline positions have been designed for computational efficiency. These methods, however, not only have several underlying restrictions (validity for small angle of wave approach, assuming bottom contours and shoreline to be parallel, depth of closure, etc.) but also their empirical estimates of sediment transport rates in the surf zone have been shown to vary greatly from the calculations of process-based hydrodynamic models. We focus on hind-casting long-term shoreline change using components of the process-based, three-dimensional coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST). COAWST is forced with historical predictions of atmospheric and oceanographic data from public-domain global models. Through a method of coupled concurrent grid-refinement approach in COAWST, the finest grid with resolution of O(10 m) that covers the surf zone along the section of interest is forced at its spatial boundaries with waves and currents computed on the grids that cover the U.S. East Coast with resolutions as low as O(1 km). The computed patterns of the gradients of surf-zone integrated longshore sediment transport rates are compared with the observed shoreline change.

A contemporary decennial global sample of changing agricultural field sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, E.; Roy, D. P.

2011-12-01

In the last several hundred years agriculture has caused significant human induced Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) with dramatic cropland expansion and a marked increase in agricultural productivity. The size of agricultural fields is a fundamental description of rural landscapes and provides an insight into the drivers of rural LCLUC. Increasing field sizes cause a subsequent decrease in the number of fields and therefore decreased landscape spatial complexity with impacts on biodiversity, habitat, soil erosion, plant-pollinator interactions, diffusion of disease pathogens and pests, and loss or degradation in buffers to nutrient, herbicide and pesticide flows. In this study, globally distributed locations with significant contemporary field size change were selected guided by a global map of agricultural yield and literature review and were selected to be representative of different driving forces of field size change (associated with technological innovation, socio-economic conditions, government policy, historic patterns of land cover land use, and environmental setting). Seasonal Landsat data acquired on a decadal basis (for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010) were used to extract field boundaries and the temporal changes in field size quantified and their causes discussed.

Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

2015-12-01

Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

Deforestation and fragmentation of natural forests in the upper Changhua watershed, Hainan, China: implications for biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Zhai, De-Li; Cannon, Charles H; Dai, Zhi-Cong; Zhang, Cui-Ping; Xu, Jian-Chu

2015-01-01

Hainan, the largest tropical island in China, belongs to the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. The Changhua watershed is a center of endemism for plants and birds and the cradle of Hainan's main rivers. However, this area has experienced recent and ongoing deforestation and habitat fragmentation. To quantify habitat loss and fragmentation of natural forests, as well as the land-cover changes in the Changhua watershed, we analyzed Landsat images obtained in 1988, 1995, and 2005. Land-cover dynamics analysis showed that natural forests increased in area (97,909 to 104,023 ha) from 1988 to 1995 but decreased rapidly to 76,306 ha over the next decade. Rubber plantations increased steadily throughout the study period while pulp plantations rapidly expanded after 1995. Similar patterns of land cover change were observed in protected areas, indicating a lack of enforcement. Natural forests conversion to rubber and pulp plantations has a general negative effect on biodiversity, primarily through habitat fragmentation. The fragmentation analysis showed that natural forests area was reduced and patch number increased, while patch size and connectivity decreased. These land-cover changes threatened local biodiversity, especially island endemic species. Both natural forests losses and fragmentation should be stopped by strict enforcement to prevent further damage. Preserving the remaining natural forests and enforcing the status of protected areas should be a management priority to maximize the watershed's biodiversity conservation value.

Quantitative assessment of urban wetland dynamics using high spatial resolution satellite imagery between 2000 and 2013.

PubMed

Hu, Tangao; Liu, Jiahong; Zheng, Gang; Li, Yao; Xie, Bin

2018-05-09

Accurate and timely information describing urban wetland resources and their changes over time, especially in rapidly urbanizing areas, is becoming more important. We applied an object-based image analysis and nearest neighbour classifier to map and monitor changes in land use/cover using multi-temporal high spatial resolution satellite imagery in an urban wetland area (Hangzhou Xixi Wetland) from 2000, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2013. The overall eight-class classification accuracies averaged 84.47% for the five years. The maps showed that between 2000 and 2013 the amount of non-wetland (urban) area increased by approximately 100%. Herbaceous (32.22%), forest (29.57%) and pond (23.85%) are the main land-cover types that changed to non-wetland, followed by cropland (6.97%), marsh (4.04%) and river (3.35%). In addition, the maps of change patterns showed that urban wetland loss is mainly distributed west and southeast of the study area due to real estate development, and the greatest loss of urban wetlands occurred from 2007 to 2013. The results demonstrate the advantages of using multi-temporal high spatial resolution satellite imagery to provide an accurate, economical means to map and analyse changes in land use/cover over time and the ability to use the results as inputs to urban wetland management and policy decisions.

A multi-scale analysis of landscape statistics

Treesearch

Douglas H. Cain; Kurt H. Riitters; Kenneth Orvis

1997-01-01

It is now feasible to monitor some aspects of landscape ecological condition nationwide using remotely- sensed imagery and indicators of land cover pattern. Previous research showed redundancies among many reported pattern indicators and identified six unique dimensions of land cover pattern. This study tested the stability of those dimensions and representative...

Near-field phase-change recording using a GaN laser diode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishima, Koichiro; Ichimura, Isao; Yamamoto, Kenji; Osato, Kiyoshi; Kuroda, Yuji; Iida, Atsushi; Saito, Kimihiro

2000-09-01

We developed a 1.5-Numerical-Aperture optical setup using a GaN blue-violet laser diode. We used a 1.0 mm-diameter super-hemispherical solid immersion lens, and optimized a phase-change disk structure including the cover layer by the method of MTF simulation. The disk surface was polished by tape burnishing technique. An eye-pattern of (1-7)-coded data at the linear density of 80 nm/bit was demonstrated on the phase-change disk below a 50 nm gap height, which was realized through our air-gap servo mechanism.

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Nel, Jeanne L.; Le Maitre, David C.; Nel, Deon C.; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Forsyth, Greg G.; Theron, Andre K.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events. PMID:24806527

Regional Patterns and Spatial Clusters of Nonstationarities in Annual Peak Instantaneous Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

Information about hydrologic changes resulting from changes in climate, land use, and land cover is a necessity planning and design or water resources infrastructure. The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) evaluated and selected 12 methods to detect abrupt and slowly varying nonstationarities in records of maximum peak annual flows. They deployed a publicly available tool[1]in 2016 and a guidance document in 2017 to support identification of nonstationarities in a reproducible manner using a robust statistical framework. This statistical framework has now been applied to streamflow records across the continental United States to explore the presence of regional patterns and spatial clusters of nonstationarities in peak annual flow. Incorporating this geographic dimension into the detection of nonstationarities provides valuable insight for the process of attribution of these significant changes. This poster summarizes the methods used and provides the results of the regional analysis. [1] Available here - http://www.corpsclimate.us/ptcih.cfm

Effects of forest cover changes in European Russia on regional weather conditions: results of numerical experiments with the COSMO-CLM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, Alexander; Kuzmina, Ekaterina; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Rivin, Gdaly S.

2017-04-01

The forests have a significant effect on the climatic system. They capture CO2 from the atmosphere, regulate the surface evaporation and runoff, and influence the radiation and thermal conditions of the land surface. It is obvious, that their influence depends on many different factors including regional climate conditions, land use and vegetation structure, surface topography, etc. The main goal of the study is to assess the possible influence of forest cover changes (under deforestation and/or afforestation) on regional weather conditions in the central part of European Russia using the results of modeling experiments provided by the meso-scale COSMO-CLM model. The need of the study lies in a lack of the experimental and modeling data characterizing the influence of the forest and land-use changes on regional weather conditions in European part of Russia. The forest ecosystems in the study region play a very important biosphere role that is significantly increased in the last decades due to considerable strengthening of anthropogenic activity in the area of European Russia. The area selected for the study is located in the central part of European Russia between 55 and 59N and 28 and 37E. It comprises several geographical zones including dark-coniferous forests of the South-European taiga in the north, the mixed forests in the central part and the broad-leaved forests in the south. The forests within the study area are very heterogeneous. The total area covered by forests according to recent remote sensing data is about 50%. The numerical experiments were provided using the COSMO-CLM model with the spatial resolution 13.2 km. As initial and boundary conditions for the numerical experiments the global reanalysis ERA Interim (with the 6-hour resolution in time and 0.75° × 0.75° in space) were used. The weather conditions were simulated in a continuous cycle for several months for the entire area of European Russia using the results of global reanalysis on external boundaries of the modeling domain. For the modeling experiments the warm period (from May to September) of 2010 was selected. The first modeling experiment assumed total deforestation of the study area. The second experiment suggested complete interruption of economic activity in the region, forest regeneration and total area afforestation. It was assumed that the forest cover increase in the considered scenario was only due to increase of the fraction of pioneer small-leaved tree species (e.g. birch, aspen). Any possible changes in proportion of coniferous species were ignored. The results of the modeling experiments showed considerable influence of forest cover changes on regional weather conditions. The influence of forest cover was manifested in changes of spatial patterns of the air temperature at different levels in the atmosphere, in changes of amount and intensity of precipitation, dew point, cloud cover, relative humidity, wind speed, and in changes of a number of other meteorological parameters. It was shown that the total deforestation of the study region can result in increase of the mean air temperature in summer on 0.3°C and in reduction of precipitation by about 6%. The afforestation processes can lead to opposite effects: in case of modeling scenario imitating the total afforestation of the study area the model predicts the decrease of the mean summer temperatures on 0.1°C and increase of precipitation by 4%. The diurnal changes of meteorological parameters can be significantly higher and more heterogeneous. Whereas the changes of the surface air temperature and humidity, wind speed and some other parameters are mainly appeared within the area with changed forest cover only, the changes of precipitation and cloud cover patterns are manifested within the entire European part of Russia including the areas situated outside the study region. The study is involved in the NEESPI program and it was supported by grant of the Russian Science Foundation (14-14- 00956).

Patterns of folding and fold interference in oblique contraction of layered rocks of the inverted Cobar Basin, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, J. V.; Marshall, B.

1992-12-01

The inverted Cobar Basin, within the Lachlan Fold Belt of New South Wales, Australia, comprises a mid-Palaeozoic cover sequence, originally deposited in a NNW-trending basin. The pattern of F 1 folding in the layered cover rocks changes from east to west; from tight well-cleaved folds parallel to the NNW-trending basin margin on the east, to open poorly cleaved en echelon folds at about 35° to the margin, further to the west. The change in fold trend and strain intensity has been repeatedly ascribed to the differing behaviour of discrete zones, decoupled across a north-trending strike-slip fault boundary. New field data show that the changes in orientation and strain intensity of F 1 structures are progressively developed, that an abrupt boundary between discrete zones cannot be substantiated, and that interpretations involving decoupled blocks are not supported by the evidence. Conversely, the data require coherent behaviour across the basin, such that the overall pattern of F 1 folding must be explained by strain compatible processes. This new interpretation of the F 1 deformation pattern has been modelled and quantitatively analysed. Theoretical predictions of the orientation of structures in unlayered isotropic material undergoing oblique contraction are inapplicable to layered anisotropic material. The style of deformation in layered material will reflect the interaction of the bulk strain pattern due to convergence together with the influence of the layering anisotropy. The orientations of the finite strain axes inferred from the folding need not match those of the bulk deformation; the amount of strain recorded by folding may be unrepresentative of that developed in the deformed tract. Oblique contraction at a range of convergence angles was simulated by models employing layers of wet tissue paper. Quantitative analysis of the strain patterns in this layered anisotropic material showed consistent departures from the theoretical predictions for isotropic material. The orientations of the principal finite horizontal extension proximal to the margin yielded higher convergence angles than those which were imposed; the orientations distal from the margin yielded substantially lower apparent convergence angles. This is because the layering anisotropy results in tight folds dissipating the normal component of the oblique convergence vector close to the margin. Whereas more open structures further from the margin show orientations controlled by the progressively more dominant shear component of the vergence vector. Modelling of D 1 the Cobar Basin shows that the F 1 pattern is consistent with dextral oblique convergence at 60° to the eastern margin of the basin. The deformation patterns, in both the model and the Cobar Basin, yield higher proximal and substantially lower distal apparent convergence angles. This is as expected from theoretical considerations and quantitative analysis of oblique contraction over a range of convergence angles. The rheological anisotropy of the cover sequence of the basin is replicated by that of the layered wet tissue paper. Wet-tissue modelling of the superposition of the second period of deformation (D 2) on F 1 demonstrates the way in which the tightness and orientation of early folds influence the type of fold interference pattern. At the eastern margin of the Cobar Basin, where D 1 was most intense, this resulted in major swings of the strike of bedding and cleavage, and of the trend of F 1 folds. Further west, open basin and dome patterns developed where D 1 was least intense. Principles developed in relation to the inversion of the Cobar Basin, are equally applicable to other basins in which layered cover rocks have undergone inversion by oblique contraction. Many basins in the Lachlan Fold Belt and in general would fall within this category.

Salting our freshwater lakes.

PubMed

Dugan, Hilary A; Bartlett, Sarah L; Burke, Samantha M; Doubek, Jonathan P; Krivak-Tetley, Flora E; Skaff, Nicholas K; Summers, Jamie C; Farrell, Kaitlin J; McCullough, Ian M; Morales-Williams, Ana M; Roberts, Derek C; Ouyang, Zutao; Scordo, Facundo; Hanson, Paul C; Weathers, Kathleen C

2017-04-25

The highest densities of lakes on Earth are in north temperate ecosystems, where increasing urbanization and associated chloride runoff can salinize freshwaters and threaten lake water quality and the many ecosystem services lakes provide. However, the extent to which lake salinity may be changing at broad spatial scales remains unknown, leading us to first identify spatial patterns and then investigate the drivers of these patterns. Significant decadal trends in lake salinization were identified using a dataset of long-term chloride concentrations from 371 North American lakes. Landscape and climate metrics calculated for each site demonstrated that impervious land cover was a strong predictor of chloride trends in Northeast and Midwest North American lakes. As little as 1% impervious land cover surrounding a lake increased the likelihood of long-term salinization. Considering that 27% of large lakes in the United States have >1% impervious land cover around their perimeters, the potential for steady and long-term salinization of these aquatic systems is high. This study predicts that many lakes will exceed the aquatic life threshold criterion for chronic chloride exposure (230 mg L -1 ), stipulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in the next 50 y if current trends continue.

Spatial Patterns of Forest Cover Loss in the Democratic Republic of Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinario, G.; Hansen, M.; Potapov, P.; Justice, C. O.

2013-12-01

Three groups of metrics of spatial patterns of forest cover loss were calculated for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). While other studies had previously assessed landscape patterns in the Congo Basin, they had done so for small areas due to data limitations. The input data for this study, the Forets d;Afrique Central Evaluee par Teledetection(FACET), allowed the analysis to be performed at the national level. FACET is a landsat-scale dataset giving an unprecedented synoptic view of forest cover and forest cover loss for the DRC for three time periods: 2000, 2005 and 2010. The three groups of metrics evaluated the following spatial characteristics of forest cover loss for the same standard 1.5km unit of area: proportions of typologies of forest lost, forest fragmentation and proximity of forest loss patches from other land cover types. Results indicate that there are several different typologies of forest cover loss in the DRC, and offer quantitative explanations of these differences, providing a valuable locally-relevant tool for land use planning, available at the national level. Spatial patterns of forest cover loss highlight differences between areas of high primary forest loss due to agriculture conversion in frontier deforestation, such as in the east of the country, areas of equivalent primary and secondary forest loss emanating from the rural complex and areas of variable proportions of primary and secondary forest loss but important ecological repercussions of forest fragmentation due to isolated, but systematic forest perforations. Typologies of spatial patterns of forest cover loss are presented as well as their correlated drivers, and ecological, conservation and land use planning considerations are discussed.

Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2012-07-01

The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP) is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP) climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period. In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this time period. Further agreement between data and model results was found for the uplands of North America and Southern Europe, where grassland along with warm and dry climates were simulated. However, our model simulated vegetation changes in South and North America that were much smaller than reconstructed. Along the west and east coast of North America we simulated drier vegetation than the pollen records suggest.

Impact of land use/land cover change on changes in surface solar radiation in eastern China since the reform and opening up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng

2016-01-01

Observational evidence of the impacts of land use/land cover change (LULCC) on changes in surface solar radiation (SSR) in eastern China (EC) during 1979-2008 are identified by using diurnal temperature range as a proxy of SSR and by using observation minus reanalysis approach to disentangle these effects. For the period 1979-2008, the impact of LULCC is shown as a reduction in SSR in most stations in EC, whereas SSR in the reanalysis data has increased at nearly every location. The competition of the dimming effect of LULCC with the brightening effect in the reanalysis results in an observed dipole pattern of SSR with slightly decreasing (increasing) trends in most stations north (south) of the Yangtze River and statistically significant decreasing trends in central EC. In terms of EC area mean, this competition has resulted in a slightly dimming trend in the observed SSR during 1979-2008, although a transition from an apparent dimming to a general leveling off near 1990 is identified. For the period 1990-2008, LULCC has significantly reduced SSR in central EC and southern China. This dimming effect of LULCC competes with the apparent brightening effect in the reanalysis to result in the general leveling off in the observed SSR in terms of EC area mean and a sandwich spatial pattern in the observed SSR in EC where parts of central EC show significant dimming. The impact of LULCC on the changes in SSR may be through both biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes.

Indentation of Graphene-Covered Atomic Force Microscopy Probe Across a Lipid Bilayer Membrane: Effect of Tip Shape, Size, and Surface Hydrophobicity.

PubMed

Lv, Kang; Li, Yinfeng

2018-06-21

Understanding the interaction of graphene with cell membranes is crucial to the development of graphene-based biological applications and the management of graphene safety issues. To help reveal the key factors controlling the interaction between graphene and cell membranes, here we adopt the dissipative particle dynamics method to analyze the evolution of interaction force and free energy as the graphene-covered atomic force microscopy (AFM) probe indents across a lipid bilayer. The simulation results show that the graphene-covered AFM probe can cause severe deformation of the cell membrane which drives the lipid molecule to adsorb and diffuse at the surface of graphene. The breakthrough force and free energy are calculated to study the effects of the tip shape, size, and surface hydrophobicity on the piercing behaviors of graphene-covered AFM. In addition, the deformation of cell membrane can decrease the dependency of the breakthrough force on the tip shape. The analysis of surface functionalization suggests that the horizontal patterns on graphene can change the preferred orientation in the penetration process, but the vertical patterns on graphene may disrupt the cell membrane. What's more, the bending stiffness of graphene has little influence on the penetration process as graphene pierces into the cell membrane. These results provide useful guidelines for the molecular design of graphene materials with controllable cell penetrability.

Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps☆

PubMed Central

Bebi, P.; Seidl, R.; Motta, R.; Fuhr, M.; Firm, D.; Krumm, F.; Conedera, M.; Ginzler, C.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Kulakowski, D.

2017-01-01

Natural disturbances, such as avalanches, snow breakage, insect outbreaks, windthrow or fires shape mountain forests globally. However, in many regions over the past centuries human activities have strongly influenced forest dynamics, especially following natural disturbances, thus limiting our understanding of natural ecological processes, particularly in densely-settled regions. In this contribution we briefly review the current understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests across the European Alps over the past millennia. We also quantify changes in forest cover across the entire Alps based on inventory data over the past century. Finally, using the Swiss Alps as an example, we analyze in-depth changes in forest cover and forest structure and their effect on patterns of fire and wind disturbances, based on digital historic maps from 1880, modern forest cover maps, inventory data on current forest structure, topographical data, and spatially explicit data on disturbances. This multifaceted approach presents a long-term and detailed picture of the dynamics of mountain forest ecosystems in the Alps. During pre-industrial times, natural disturbances were reduced by fire suppression and land-use, which included extraction of large amounts of biomass that decreased total forest cover. More recently, forest cover has increased again across the entire Alps (on average +4% per decade over the past 25–115 years). Live tree volume (+10% per decade) and dead tree volume (mean +59% per decade) have increased over the last 15–40 years in all regions for which data were available. In the Swiss Alps secondary forests that established after 1880 constitute approximately 43% of the forest cover. Compared to forests established previously, post-1880 forests are situated primarily on steep slopes (>30°), have lower biomass, a more aggregated forest structure (primarily stem-exclusion stage), and have been more strongly affected by fires, but less affected by wind disturbance in the 20th century. More broadly, an increase in growing stock and expanding forest areas since the mid-19th century have - along with climatic changes - contributed to an increasing frequency and size of disturbances in the Alps. Although many areas remain intensively managed, the extent, structure, and dynamics of the forests of the Alps reflect natural drivers more strongly today than at any time in the past millennium. PMID:28860675

Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps.

PubMed

Bebi, P; Seidl, R; Motta, R; Fuhr, M; Firm, D; Krumm, F; Conedera, M; Ginzler, C; Wohlgemuth, T; Kulakowski, D

2017-03-15

Natural disturbances, such as avalanches, snow breakage, insect outbreaks, windthrow or fires shape mountain forests globally. However, in many regions over the past centuries human activities have strongly influenced forest dynamics, especially following natural disturbances, thus limiting our understanding of natural ecological processes, particularly in densely-settled regions. In this contribution we briefly review the current understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests across the European Alps over the past millennia. We also quantify changes in forest cover across the entire Alps based on inventory data over the past century. Finally, using the Swiss Alps as an example, we analyze in-depth changes in forest cover and forest structure and their effect on patterns of fire and wind disturbances, based on digital historic maps from 1880, modern forest cover maps, inventory data on current forest structure, topographical data, and spatially explicit data on disturbances. This multifaceted approach presents a long-term and detailed picture of the dynamics of mountain forest ecosystems in the Alps. During pre-industrial times, natural disturbances were reduced by fire suppression and land-use, which included extraction of large amounts of biomass that decreased total forest cover. More recently, forest cover has increased again across the entire Alps (on average +4% per decade over the past 25-115 years). Live tree volume (+10% per decade) and dead tree volume (mean +59% per decade) have increased over the last 15-40 years in all regions for which data were available. In the Swiss Alps secondary forests that established after 1880 constitute approximately 43% of the forest cover. Compared to forests established previously, post-1880 forests are situated primarily on steep slopes (>30°), have lower biomass, a more aggregated forest structure (primarily stem-exclusion stage), and have been more strongly affected by fires, but less affected by wind disturbance in the 20th century. More broadly, an increase in growing stock and expanding forest areas since the mid-19th century have - along with climatic changes - contributed to an increasing frequency and size of disturbances in the Alps. Although many areas remain intensively managed, the extent, structure, and dynamics of the forests of the Alps reflect natural drivers more strongly today than at any time in the past millennium.

Current and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity

PubMed Central

Kaschner, Kristin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Ready, Jonathan; Gerrodette, Tim; Worm, Boris

2011-01-01

Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available. PMID:21625431

Wildfire patterns and landscape changes in Mediterranean oak woodlands.

PubMed

Guiomar, N; Godinho, S; Fernandes, P M; Machado, R; Neves, N; Fernandes, J P

2015-12-01

Fire is infrequent in the oak woodlands of southern Portugal (montado) but large and severe fires affected these agro-forestry systems in 2003-2005. We hypothesised transition from forest to shrubland as a fire-driven process and investigated the links between fire incidence and montado change to other land cover types, particularly those related with the presence of pioneer communities (generically designed in this context as "transitions to early-successional communities"). We present a landscape-scale framework for assessing the probability of transition from montado to pioneer communities, considering three sets of explanatory variables: montado patterns in 1990 and prior changes from montado to early-successional communities (occurred between 1960 and 1990), fire patterns, and spatial factors. These three sets of factors captured 78.2% of the observed variability in the transitions from montado to pioneer vegetation. The contributions of fire patterns and spatial factors were high, respectively 60.6% and 43.4%, the influence of montado patterns and former changes in montado being lower (34.4%). The highest amount of explained variation in the occurrence of transitions from montado to early-successional communities was related to the pure effect of fire patterns (19.9%). Low spatial connectedness in montado landscape can increase vulnerability to changes, namely to pioneer vegetation, but the observed changes were mostly explained by fire characteristics and spatial factors. Among all metrics used to characterize fire patterns and extent, effective mesh size provided the best modelling results. Transitions from montado to pioneer communities are more likely in the presence of high values of the effective mesh size of total burned area. This cross-boundary metric is an indicator of the influence of large fires in the distribution of the identified transitions and, therefore, we conclude that the occurrence of large fires in montado increases its probability of transition to shrubland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physical and Radiative Characteristics and Long Term Variability of the Okhotsk Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nishio, Fumihiko; Comiso, Josefino C.; Gersten, Robert; Nakayama, Masashige; Ukita, Jinro; Gasiewski, Al; Stanko, Boba; Naoki, Kazuhiro

2007-01-01

Much of what we know about the large scale characteristics of the Okhotsk Sea ice cover comes from ice concentration maps derived from passive microwave data. To understand what these satellite data represents in a highly divergent and rapidly changing environment like the Okhotsk Sea, we analyzed concurrent satellite, aircraft, and ship data and characterized the sea ice cover at different scales from meters to tens of kilometers. Through comparative analysis of surface features using co-registered data from visible, infrared and microwave channels we evaluated how the general radiative and physical characteristics of the ice cover changes as well as quantify the distribution of different ice types in the region. Ice concentration maps from AMSR-E using the standard sets of channels, and also only the 89 GHz channel for optimal resolution, are compared with aircraft and high resolution visible data and while the standard set provides consistent results, the 89 GHz provides the means to observe mesoscale patterns and some unique features of the ice cover. Analysis of MODIS data reveals that thick ice types represents about 37% of the ice cover indicating that young and new ice represent a large fraction of the lice cover that averages about 90% ice concentration, according to passive microwave data. A rapid decline of -9% and -12 % per decade is observed suggesting warming signals but further studies are required because of aforementioned characteristics and because the length of the ice season is decreasing by only 2 to 4 days per decade.

Spatial-Temporal Heterogeneity in Regional Watershed Phosphorus Cycles Driven by Changes in Human Activity over the Past Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hale, R. L.; Grimm, N. B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2014-12-01

An ongoing challenge for society is to harness the benefits of phosphorus (P) while minimizing negative effects on downstream ecosystems. To meet this challenge we must understand the controls on the delivery of anthropogenic P from landscapes to downstream ecosystems. We used a model that incorporates P inputs to watersheds, hydrology, and infrastructure (sewers, waste-water treatment plants, and reservoirs) to reconstruct historic P yields for the northeastern U.S. from 1930 to 2002. At the regional scale, increases in P inputs were paralleled by increased fractional retention, thus P loading to the coast did not increase significantly. We found that temporal variation in regional P yield was correlated with P inputs. Spatial patterns of watershed P yields were best predicted by inputs, but the correlation between inputs and yields in space weakened over time, due to infrastructure development. Although the magnitude of infrastructure effect was small, its role changed over time and was important in creating spatial and temporal heterogeneity in input-yield relationships. We then conducted a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify a typology of anthropogenic P cycling, using data on P inputs (fertilizer, livestock feed, and human food), infrastructure (dams, wastewater treatment plants, sewers), and hydrology (runoff coefficient). We identified 6 key types of watersheds that varied significantly in climate, infrastructure, and the types and amounts of P inputs. Annual watershed P yields and retention varied significantly across watershed types. Although land cover varied significantly across typologies, clusters based on land cover alone did not explain P budget patterns, suggesting that this variable is insufficient to understand patterns of P cycling across large spatial scales. Furthermore, clusters varied over time as patterns of climate, P use, and infrastructure changed. Our results demonstrate that the drivers of P cycles are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, yet they also suggest that a relatively simple typology of watersheds can be useful for understanding regional P cycles and may help inform P management approaches.

The changes of densities and patterns of roads and rural buildings: a case study on Dongzhi Yuan of the Loess Plateau, China.

PubMed

Bi, Xiaoli; Wang, Hui; Ge, Jianping

2010-05-01

Roads and buildings are considered as primary causes of rural landscape changes. In this study, linear regression models were used to analyze the dynamic influences of environmental factors and variables on roads and rural buildings from 1979 to 2005 in Dongzhi Yuan (tableland) of the Loess Plateau, China. The relationship between roads and rural buildings and their effects on Dongzhi Yuan are discussed also. The results showed that three environmental factors (topography, land cover, and development level) explained roads better than rural buildings referring densities and patterns. The environmental variables significantly related to roads have decreased, whereas those related to rural buildings have increased over time. Among these significant variables, percent of farmland mostly determined the densities and patterns of both roads and rural buildings. There was significant correlation between roads and rural buildings in terms of density and pattern. In addition, roads and rural buildings have increased greatly in gully areas of this region. Therefore, more attention should be paid to planning of roads and rural buildings in Dongzhi Yuan.

Diversity patterns and composition of native and exotic floras in central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa, Javier A.; Teillier, Sebastián; Castro, Sergio A.

2011-03-01

Floristic changes in the Mediterranean region of central Chile brought about by human impact appear to be shared with other climatic regions, although there is a notable absence of empirical studies and available quantitative evidence for the central Chile region. This study examines the cover, richness and composition of native and exotic plant species in a representative area of central Chile. Through floristic characterization of 33 sites sampled using 40 × 40 m plots distributed along transect on which the two farthest sites were separated by 50 km, the floristic richness and cover patterns, as well as the general land use characteristics were evaluated (native matorral, espinal, abandoned farming field, forest plantations, periurban sites, road sites, river bank, and burnt site). We recorded 327 species of plants; 213 species were native and 114 were exotic. The average number of species was heterogeneous in all sites, showing a greater relative native frequency in those sites with a lower level of anthropic intervention. Except for the matorral, the cover of exotic species was greater than that of native species. No relation was found between richness and cover in relation to the different types of land use. The relationship between cover of native and exotic was negative, although for richness did not show relationship. Results show that the exotic species are limited by resources, although they have not completely displaced the native species. The native and exotic floras respond to different spatial distribution patterns, so their presence makes it possible to establish two facts rarely quantified in central Chile: first, that the exotic flora replaces (but does not necessarily displace) the native flora, and second, that at the same time, because of its greater geographic ubiquity and the abundance levels that it achieves, it contributes to the taxonomic and physiognomic homogenization of central Chile.

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

2015-01-01

Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Spatial And Temporal Patterns As Well As Major Influencing Factors Of Global And Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance Over China: 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Sun, F.

2017-12-01

Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) on Earth is a central element of climate systems. With changes in the climate and regional development, the patterns and influencing factors of GHI, in addition to presenting global consistency, are increasingly showing regional particularities. Based on data for GHI, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) and potential impact factors (geographical position, elevation, cloud cover, water vapor, and ground atmospheric transparency related variables) from 1960 to 2014 in China, we analyzed the pattern and major influencing factors of GHI and DHI. The results showed that the major influencing factors of the GHI spatial pattern were the total cloud cover (TCC) and relative humidity (RH) in China. Dividing all of China into two regions, the major factors were the water vapor pressure (WVP) in the northern region and TCC in the southern region. And we divided the GHI and DHI data into two periods (1960-1987 and 1988-2014) due to global dimming and brightening observed in China in the late 1980's. The temporal GHI showed that 31 of 58 decreased significantly with an average decreasing rate of 95 MJ.10yr-1 during the periods of 1960-2014 and 49 of 76 stations decreased significantly with an rate of 342 MJ.10yr-1 during 1960-1987, whereas 57 of 88 stations did not change and 24 stations increased significantly with an rate of 201 MJ.10yr-1 during the period of 1988-2014. The temporal DHI showed that 40 of 61sites did not change significantly from 1960 to 1987. The major influencing factors for temporal changes of GHI in nine typical cities from 1960 to 2013 were as follows: air quality-related variables in super cities, sandstorms and wind in desert oasis cities, clouds in cities with good air quality and a low cloud amount (LCA) and annual fog days (FD) in Chengdu. Overall, we identified characteristics of GHI and DHI based on global climate change and regional urban development and found that the spatial characteristics of GHI results for China are consistent with global trends, whereas the spatial characteristics of DHI and temporal characteristics of GHI and DHI have changed significantly.

Rapid changes in glacier surface processes and downstream river basin in the Central Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haritashya, U. K.; Strattman, K.; Kargel, J. S.

2017-12-01

A high altitude glacierized region in the central Himalaya hosts thousands of glaciers and originates major rivers like the Ganges and Yamuna. This region has seen significant changes in last few decades due to climate system coupling involving the westerlies and the monsoon, high seismic activities, complex topography, extensive glacier debris cover, and widespread mass movement. Consequently, we analyzed regional variability in hundreds of glacier surface processes and downstream river basins of varying geomorphology using a variety of satellite imagery from the early 1990s to 2017. Our results indicate a massive increase in supraglacial ponds in south facing glaciers. Several of these ponds are either seasonal and forms exactly at the same location every year or forms at the beginning of the melt season and drains out as the season progresses from April to July/August. We also observed evolution in size of these ponds in the last two decades to the point where some of them now seem to be stationary and might increase in size and develop large lake in the future. To understand our result and melting pattern in the region, we also analyzed ice velocity and surface temperature; both of which reveals a temporal shift in the pattern. Glacier surface temperatures, especially show a warming pattern in recent years and strong correlation with debris cover. Additionally, we also observed changes in the downstream region both around the river bed and steep slopes where massive erosion of Himalayan glaciers are depositing and transporting excessive amount of sediments. Overall, our results are discussed in the context of better landscape evolution modeling from the top of the glacier to the several km downstream from the glacier terminus.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Lackawanna and Wayne Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milheim, L.E.; Slonecker, E.T.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Lackawanna County and Wayne County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Greene and Tioga Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Fisher, G.B.

2012-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in the area of Pennsylvania. Coalbed methane, which is sometimes extracted using the same technique, is commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and is frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Greene County and Tioga County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics are also used to quantify these changes and are included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Bradford and Washington Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.; Marr, D.A.; Fisher, G.B.

2012-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in the area of Pennsylvania. Coalbed methane, which is sometimes extracted using the same technique, is often located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and is frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Bradford County and Washington County, Pennsylvania, between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is used to quantify these changes and are included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Armstrong and Indiana Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, Terry E.; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.; Malizia, Alexander R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Armstrong County and Indiana County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Somerset and Westmoreland Counties, Pennsylvania,2004--2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milheim, L.E.; Slonecker, E.T.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Somerset County and Westmoreland County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Allegheny and Susquehanna Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004--2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Coalbed methane, which is sometimes extracted using the same technique, is commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and is frequently developed in clusters of wells across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Allegheny County and Susquehanna County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Sullivan and Wyoming Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, Terry E.; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.; Malizia, Alexander R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Sullivan County and Wyoming County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Fayette and Lycoming Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.; Gillenwater, B.H.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Fayette County and Lycoming County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Beaver and Butler Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roig-Silva, Coral M.; Slonecker, E. Terry; Milheim, Lesley E.; Malizia, Alexander R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Beaver County and Butler County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Investigation of environmental change pattern in Japan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maruyasu, T. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Plains of Tokachi, where the scale of agricultural field was comparatively large in Japan, LANDSAT data with its accuracy have proved to be useful enough to observe the actual condition of agricultural land use and changes more accurately than present methods. Species and ages of grasses in pasture were identified and soils were classified into several types. The actual land cover and ecological environment were remarkably changeable at the rapidly industrialized area by the urbanization in the flat plane and also by the forest works and road construction in the mountainous area. The practical use of the recognition results was proved as the base map of the field survey or the retouching work of the vegetation and land use. There was a 10% cut in cost, labor, and time. Vegetation cover in Tokyo districts was estimated by both the multiregression model and the parametric model. Multicorrelation coefficient between observed value and estimated value was 0.87 and standard deviation was + or - 15%. Vegetation cover in Tokyo was mapped into five levels with equal intervals of 20%.

10 Weeks of Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

11 June 2004 These four Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images show north polar sand dunes as they appeared on four different days over the past ten weeks. In summer, the dunes would be darker than the substrate on which they occur. However, it is currently spring in the northern hemisphere, and the dunes are still covered with frost from the previous winter. The MGS MOC has been busy over the past several months, documenting the changes in frost patterns that occur on dunes and interdune substrates all over the north polar region. The site shown here was imaged on 30 March, 23 April, 16 May, and 9 June 2004. The bright frost that covers the dunes progressively changes from one image to the next, as dark spots develop and frost sublimes away. This defrosting dune monitor site is located near 80.0oN, 237.5oW. Each strip is about 1.1 km (0.7 mi) wide and illuminated by sunlight from the lower left.

Coyote (Canis latrans) mammalian prey diet shifts in response to seasonal vegetation change.

PubMed

Seamster, Virginia A; Waits, Lisette P; Macko, Stephen A; Shugart, Herman H

2014-01-01

Drylands typically have strong seasonal variation in rainfall and primary productivity. This study examines the effects of seasonal change in grass-derived resource availability on the base of the food chain of a mammalian predator. Seasonal changes in live grass cover were measured in two vegetation types at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico, USA. Non-invasive genetic sampling of scat was used to identify individuals in the local coyote (Canis latrans) population. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of hair removed from scats of 45 different coyotes was used to assess seasonal variation in the diet of mammalian coyote prey that came from C4 grasses. Live grass cover increased from the spring to the summer and fall; contribution of C4 grasses to the diet of mammalian coyote prey increased from the summer to the fall and was higher in grassland areas. There were significant differences in the seasonal patterns in the prey diet between grassland and shrubland areas.

A decadal observation of vegetation dynamics using multi-resolution satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Yang-Sheng; Chen, Kun-Shan; Chu, Chang-Jen

2012-10-01

Vegetation cover not just affects the habitability of the earth, but also provides potential terrestrial mechanism for mitigation of greenhouse gases. This study aims at quantifying such green resources by incorporating multi-resolution satellite images from different platforms, including Formosat-2(RSI), SPOT(HRV/HRG), and Terra(MODIS), to investigate vegetation fractional cover (VFC) and its inter-/intra-annual variation in Taiwan. Given different sensor capabilities in terms of their spatial coverage and resolution, infusion of NDVIs at different scales was used to determine fraction of vegetation cover based on NDVI. Field campaign has been constantly conducted on a monthly basis for 6 years to calibrate the critical NDVI threshold for the presence of vegetation cover, with test sites covering IPCC-defined land cover types of Taiwan. Based on the proposed method, we analyzed spatio- temporal changes of VFC for the entire Taiwan Island. A bimodal sequence of VFC was observed for intra-annual variation based on MODIS data, with level around 5% and two peaks in spring and autumn marking the principal dual-cropping agriculture pattern in southwestern Taiwan. Compared to anthropogenic-prone variation, the inter-annual VFC (Aug.-Oct.) derived from HRV/HRG/RSI reveals that the moderate variations (3%) and the oscillations were strongly linked with regional climate pattern and major disturbances resulting from extreme weather events. Two distinct cycles (2002-2005 and 2005-2009) were identified in the decadal observations, with VFC peaks at 87.60% and 88.12% in 2003 and 2006, respectively. This time-series mapping of VFC can be used to examine vegetation dynamics and its response associated with short-term and long-term anthropogenic/natural events.

Oasis dynamics change and its influence on landscape pattern on Jinta oasis in arid China from 1963a to 2010a: Integration of multi-source satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yuchu; Gong, Jie; Sun, Peng; Gou, Xiaohua

2014-12-01

As one of the vital research highlights of global land use and cover change, oasis change and its interaction with landscape pattern have been regarded as an important content of regional environmental change research in arid areas. Jinta oasis, a typical agricultural oasis characterized by its dramatic exploitation and use of water and land resources in Hexi corridor, northwest arid region in China, was selected as a case to study the spatiotemporal oasis change and its effects on oasis landscape pattern. Based on integration of Keyhole satellite photographs, KATE-200 photographs, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+ images, we evaluated and analyzed the status, trend and spatial pattern change of Jinta oasis and the characteristics of landscape pattern change by a set of mathematical models and combined this information with landscape metrics and community surveys. During the period of 1963a-2010a, Jinta oasis expanded gradually with an area increase of 219.15 km2, and the conversion between oasis and desert was frequent with a state of “imbalance-balance-extreme imbalance conditions”. Moreover, most of the changes took place in the ecotone between oasis and desert and the interior of oasis due to the reclamation of abandoned land, such as Yangjingziwan and Xiba townships. Furthermore, the area, size and spatial distribution of oasis were influenced by human activities and resulted in fundamental changes of oasis landscape pattern. The fractal characteristics, dispersion degree and fragmentation of Jinta oasis decreased and the oasis landscape tended to be simple and uniform. Oasis change trajectories and its landscape pattern were mainly influenced by water resource utilization, policies (especially land policies), demographic factors, technological advancements, as well as regional economic development. We found that time series analysis of multi-source remote sensing images and the application of an oasis change model provided a useful approach to monitor oasis change over a long-term period in arid area. It is recommended that the government and farmers should pay more attention to the fragility of the natural system and the government should enhance the leading role of environmental considerations in the development process of oasis change, particularly with respect to the utilization of the limited water and land resources in arid China.

Spatial and temporal patterns of spontaneous grass cover as a control measure of soil loss: a study case in an olive orchard microcatchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taguas, Encarnación; Vanderlinden, Karl; Pedrera-Parrilla, Aura; Giráldez, Juan V.; Gómez, Jose A.

2016-04-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of vegetal communities control local biogeophysical processes.. The use of cover crops and spontaneous grass cover as a soil erosion control measure is quite common, particularly in hilly agricultural areas. Spontaneous covers show usually irregular spatial and temporal patterns, resulting in a questionable efficiency and and unresolved management requirements. However, due to its zero cost, it is a helpful alternative for soil erosion control in marginal farms (Taguas et al., 2015). The main aim of this work was to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of spontaneous grass cover in an olive orchard microcatchment to interpret its dependences on other physical features as well as its influence on soil loss control. The specific objectives were: i) to evaluate the relationships between the mean cover and the variables: accumulated precipitation, accumulated evapotranspiration and average minimum temperature for the preceding 5, 15, 30 and 60 days to the sampling date; ii) study the spatial aggregation degree of the cover, its temporal stability and its correlation with different topographical properties, the richness of species and the apparent electrical conductivity as a measure of soil variability; and iii) describe the influence of the cover on runoff and soil loss in the catchments. Cover percentage corresponding to spontaneous grass was evaluated on a seaonsal basis during 3 years (2011-2013), resulting in 12 surveys. A permanent and regular grid of 36 points covering the entire catchment (5-6 samples/ha) was used in each survey. At each location cover percentage was determined through image analyses. In order to explore the relations between cover percentage and meteorological variables, multiple linear regression was applied whereas the SADIE approach (Spatial analysis by distance indices; Perry, 1998) was used to describe possible spatial aggregation patterns and the correlation with features such as aspect, slope, drainage area, height, richness and apparent electrical conductivity. The mean annual cover percentage varied from 23% to 36% with a coefficient of variation of 57% and 6%, respectively. On the seasonal scale, the cover varied between 0.2% and 50% . Significant effects of accumulated precipitation during the precedubg 15 days on the cover percentage were detected. In addition, a permanent aggregated pattern of spontaneous grass was observed for different seasonal surveys with abundant preceding rainfall. No clear correlations were found with physical attributes with the exception of electrical conductivity (50 cm-depth). Finally, the differences found in the hydrological responses for similar events with different degrees of soil cover highlighted the role that spontaneous vegetation plays in the sediment discharge control during humid periods. REFERENCES: Perry, J. N., 1998. Measures of spatial pattern for counts. Ecology 79: 1008-1017. E. V. Taguas, C. Arroyo, A. Lora, G. Guzmán, K. Vanderlinden. J. A. Gómez. 2015. Exploring the linkage between spontaneous grass cover biodiversity and soil degradation in two olive orchard microcatchments with contrasting environmental and management conditions. SOIL, 1, 651-664.

Time series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of north-central Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawtree, D.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Jacinto, R.; Santos, J.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Boulet, A.-K.; Tavares-Wahren, F.; Feger, K.-H.

2015-07-01

The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant land cover change since the early 1900s, with large-scale replacement of natural vegetation types with plantation forests. This transition consisted of an initial conversion primarily to Pinus pinaster, followed by a secondary transition to Eucalyptus globulus. This land cover change is likely to have altered the hydrologic functioning of this region; however, these potential impacts are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 75 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936-2010. A number of hydrometeorological variables were analyzed using a combined Thiel-Sen/Mann-Kendall trend-testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there have been no significant reductions in streamflow over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which has occurred. This lack of change in streamflow is attributed to the specific characteristics of the watershed and land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, with positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These trends are attributed to land use and vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e., infiltration capacity, soil water repellency). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Changing Patterns of Work in America, 1976: Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Employment, Poverty, and Migration Labor of the Committee on Labor and Public Welfare, United States Senate, Ninety-Fourth Congress, Second Session on Examination of Alternative Working Hours and Arrangements, April 7 and 8, 1976.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. Senate Committee on Labor and Public Welfare.

Several programs designed to improve work life in the United States are reviewed. The subcommittee solicits opinions from leaders in business, labor, and government about what legislative and institutional changes can be made to ensure continued progress in the status of the working people. The hearings cover a broad range of topics including job…

A landscape indicator approach to the identification and articulation of the consequences of land-cover change in the Mid-Atlantic Region, 1973-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E. Terrence; Milheim, Lesley E.; Claggett, Peter

2009-01-01

Landscape indicators, derived from land-use and land-cover data, hydrology, nitrate deposition, and elevation data, were used by Jones and others (2001a) to calculate the ecological consequences of land-cover change. Nitrate loading and physical bird habitat were modeled from 1973 and 1992 land-cover and other spatial data for the Mid-Atlantic region. Utilizing the same methods, this study extends the analysis another decade with the use of the 2001 National Land Cover Dataset. Land-cover statistics and trends are calculated for three time periods: 1973-1992, 1992-2001 and 1973-2001. In addition, high-resolution aerial photographs (1 meter or better ground-sample distance) were acquired and analyzed for thirteen pairs of adjacent USGS 7.5 minute quadrangle maps in areas where distinct positive or negative changes to nitrogen loading and bird habitat were previously calculated. During the entire 30 year period, the data show that there was extensive loss of agriculture and forest area and a major increase in urban land-cover classes. However, the majority of the conversion of other classes to urban occurred during the 1992-2001 period. During the 1973-1992 period, there was only moderate increase in urban area, while there was an inverse relationship between agricultural change and forest change. In general, forest gain and agricultural loss was found in areas of improving landscape indicators, and forest loss and agricultural gain was found to occur in areas of declining indicators related to habitat and nitrogen loadings, which was generally confirmed by the aerial photographic analysis. In terms of the specific model results, bird habitat, which is mainly related to the extent of forest cover, declined overall with forest extent, but was also affected more in the decline of habitat quality. Nitrate loading, which is mainly related to agricultural land cover actually improved from 1992-2001, and in the overall study, mainly due to the conversion of agriculture to forests and urban. The high-resolution imagery analysis was significant in that it confirmed, at a very local level, the specific land-cover changes that were driving the landscape metrics and model results that were calculated from moderate resolution land-cover data and models. These were generally subtle changes in patch size of agriculture, forest, and urban areas, but had substantial effects on bird habitat and nitrogen loadings. This analysis of high-resolution imagery demonstrates and confirms the important ability of moderate-resolution land-cover data to capture significant landscape-level activity that is directly related to specific metrics of ecological significance. It also demonstrates consistent landscape-scale relationships between data derived from high-resolution, moderate-resolution and landscape-model sources. Finally, many of the areas of improvement and decline in bird habitat and nitrogen loadings appear to be potentially regional in nature and likely reflect some local trend in landscape activity. Although the use of ecoregions as sampling units has been criticized in recent years, these results show that basic changes in Level 1 land-cover categories, such as forest and agriculture, may still reflect ecoregional patterns and considerations at some scale of mapping and analysis. This is a potentially important area for future landscape-indicator research. This and other follow-on research opportunities are discussed.

Himalayan glaciers: understanding contrasting patterns of glacier behavior using multi-temporal satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Racoviteanu, A.

2014-12-01

High rates of glacier retreat for the last decades are often reported, and believed to be induced by 20th century climate changes. However, regional glacier fluctuations are complex, and depend on a combination of climate and local topography. Furthermore, in ares such as the Hindu-Kush Himalaya, there are concerns about warming, decreasing monsoon precipitation and their impact on local glacier regimes. Currently, the challenge is in understanding the magnitude of feedbacks between large-scale climate forcing and small-scale glacier behavior. Spatio-temporal patterns of glacier distribution are still llimited in some areas of the high Hindu-Kush Himalaya, but multi-temporal satellite imagery has helped fill spatial and temporal gaps in regional glacier parameters in the last decade. Here I present a synopsis of the behavior of glaciers across the Himalaya, following a west to east gradient. In particular, I focus on spatial patterns of glacier parameters in the eastern Himalaya, which I investigate at multi-spatial scales using remote sensing data from declassified Corona, ASTER, Landsat ETM+, Quickbird and Worldview2 sensors. I also present the use of high-resolution imagery, including texture and thermal analysis for mapping glacier features at small scale, which are particularly useful in understanding surface trends of debris-covered glaciers, which are prevalent in the Himalaya. I compare and contrast spatial patterns of glacier area and élévation changes in the monsoon-influenced eastern Himalaya (the Everest region in the Nepal Himalaya and Sikkim in the Indian Himalaya) with other observations from the dry western Indian Himalaya (Ladakh and Lahul-Spiti), both field measurements and remote sensing-based. In the eastern Himalaya, results point to glacier area change of -0.24 % ± 0.08% per year from the 1960's to the 2006's, with a higher rate of retreat in the last decade (-0.43% /yr). Debris-covered glacier tongues show thinning trends of -30.8 m± 39 m on average over the last four decades, similar to other studies in the same climatic area. However, at small scales, the behavior of glaciers is highly heterogenous, with contrasting patterns of thickening glacier termini versus retreating nad thinning glacier tongues.

Effect of ploidy on scale-cover pattern in linear ornamental (koi) common carp Cyprinus carpio.

PubMed

Gomelsky, B; Schneider, K J; Glennon, R P; Plouffe, D A

2012-09-01

The effect of ploidy on scale-cover pattern in linear ornamental (koi) common carp Cyprinus carpio was investigated. To obtain diploid and triploid linear fish, eggs taken from a leather C. carpio female (genotype ssNn) and sperm taken from a scaled C. carpio male (genotype SSnn) were used for the production of control (no shock) and heat-shocked progeny. In heat-shocked progeny, the 2 min heat shock (40° C) was applied 6 min after insemination. Diploid linear fish (genotype SsNn) demonstrated a scale-cover pattern typical for this category with one even row of scales along lateral line and few scales located near operculum and at bases of fins. The majority (97%) of triploid linear fish (genotype SssNnn) exhibited non-typical scale patterns which were characterized by the appearance of additional scales on the body. The extent of additional scales in triploid linear fish was variable; some fish had large scales, which covered almost the entire body. Apparently, the observed difference in scale-cover pattern between triploid and diploid linear fish was caused by different phenotypic expression of gene N/n. Due to incomplete dominance of allele N, triploids Nnn demonstrate less profound reduction of scale cover compared with diploids Nn. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Investigating impacts of economic growth on the environment using remote sensing tools: A case study of gross domestic product and net primary production in China from 2001 to 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Naizhuo

Pursuing sustainable co-development of economy and environment has been established as a basic national policy by the present Chinese government. However, studies regarding actual outcomes of the co-development policy at the whole Chinese scale are still limited. Detecting China's economic growth and changes of environmental quality will not only contribute to evaluation of outcomes of the co-development policy but more importantly is an opportunity to examine the suitability of the IPAT model and improve our understanding of human-environment interactions. The core of the IPAT theory is an equation where I=PxAxT that models human impact on the environment as a function of changes to population (P), affluence ( A), and technology (T). The IPAT theory emphasizes that economic growth will inevitably produce negative impacts on the environment. Thus, if China's environmental quality declined while economic growth occurred, then the IPAT theory will be substantiated. Otherwise, the suitability of the IPAT theory will be called into question and its tenets must be reconsidered. In this dissertation research I selected gross domestic product (GDP) and net primary production (NPP) as indicators to evaluate production of social and ecological systems respectively. The main study objectives are (1) to develop a methodology to facilitate integration of the two indicators derived from demographic data sources and satellite imagery at different geographic scales, (2) to jointly explore changing patterns of China's economic and ecological production (i.e., spatially and temporally coincident patterns of change in GDP and NPP) across different spatial scales, (3) to analyze whether economic growth has produced negative impacts on ecosystem production and whether the impacts correlate to the economic growth, and finally (4) to discuss whether the IPAT theory is suitable for explaining the joint changes of GDP and NPP in China or if it is in need of modification. To fulfill the study objectives, nighttime light images and LandScan gridded population data were used to disaggregate demographic GDP data reported at the province level to the pixel level. The disaggregated GDP data were integrated with MODIS annual NPP data to map joint changes of GDP and NPP from 2001 to 2007. Economic development and environmental change can lead to land cover change, and the land cover change can, in turn, determine the changes of NPP. Thus, a change detection matrix with basic land cover elements was produced from MODIS land cover type products to augment the analyses of changing patterns of GDP and NPP in China. To safely discern that the changes of NPP are mainly affected by anthropogenic factors and not natural forces, the extents of undeveloped, established developed (existing before 2001), and newly developed (emerging after 2001) areas were delimited from the nighttime light images. Results show that most Chinese developed areas experienced coupled increases in GDP and NPP between 2001 and 2007 across different geographic scales, but no significant correlations exist between the total changes (or percentage changes) in GDP and NPP at the province, the city, or the pixel level. Despite large increases in GDP, the decreases in vegetated land expected according to IPAT theory did not occur in developed areas. Instead, barren land markedly decreased and built-up land slightly decreased in extent. These changing patterns suggest that China's economic growth produced some positive impacts on its ecosystem production as measured using NPP. In light of these findings a reexamination of the IPAT theory is necessary. I propose a revision to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) concept to fully illustrate the relationship between economic growth and ecosystem production as an indicator of environmental quality. According to the EKC, at relatively low levels of economic output, economic growth produces negative impacts on environmental quality. The negative impacts tend to reach a maximum at high levels of economic output and then decline at sustained levels of high economic output. My findings indicate that at sustained levels of high economic output some negative impacts may be reduced, but that some positive impacts may simultaneously emerge.

Application of RUSLE method to assess the intensity of erosion due to land use changes in a small Polish Carpathians catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucała-Hrabia, Anna; Kijowska-Strugała, Małgorzata; Demczuk, Piotr

2017-04-01

Intensity of soil erosion is mainly depends on land cover changes, soil properties, heavy rainfalls and slope gradients. This study compared the influence of land use changes on soil erosion in the Homerka catchment, an area of 19.3 km2 located in the West Polish Carpathians, using GIS techniques such the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) method and cartographic materials from 1977, 1987, 1996 and 2009. RUSLE is the most common method which allows to predict the average size of the soil erosion due to specific soil properties, relief as well as rainfall erosivity factor. The period between 1977 and 2009 covers the transformation of the Polish economy from a communist system to a free-market economy after 1989. The analysis indicates an increase in the forest area of the Homerka catchment by 18.14% and a decrease of cultivated land by 82.64%. The grasslands did not change significantly in their area, however, their spatial pattern was very dynamic related to their reduction due to forest expansion and enlargement due to cultivated land abandonment.

Dynamics of Soil Properties and Plant Composition during Postagrogenic Evolution in Different Bioclimatic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telesnina, V. M.; Kurganova, I. N.; Lopes de Gerenyu, V. O.; Ovsepyan, L. A.; Lichko, V. I.; Ermolaev, A. M.; Mirin, D. M.

2017-12-01

The postagrogenic dynamics of acidity and some parameters of humus status have been studied in relation to the restoration of zonal vegetation in southern taiga (podzolic and soddy-podzolic soils ( Retisols)), coniferous-broadleaved (subtaiga) forest (gray forest soil ( Luvic Phaeozem)), and forest-steppe (gray forest soil ( Haplic Phaeozem)) subzones. The most significant transformation of the studied properties of soils under changing vegetation has been revealed for poor sandy soils of southern taiga. The degree of changes in the content and stocks of organic carbon, the enrichment of humus in nitrogen, and acidity in the 0- to 20-cm soil layer during the postagrogenic evolution decreases from north to south. The adequate reflection of soil physicochemical properties in changes of plant cover is determined by the climatic zone and the land use pattern. A correlation between the changes in the soil acidity and the portion of acidophilic species in the plant cover is revealed for the southern taiga subzone. A positive relationship is found between the content of organic carbon and the share of species preferring humus-rich soils in the forest-steppe zone.

Polygonal patterned peatlands of the White Sea islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutenkov, S. A.; Kozhin, M. N.; Golovina, E. O.; Kopeina, E. I.; Stoikina, N. V.

2018-03-01

The summits and slopes of some islands along the northeastern and northern coasts of the White Sea are covered with dried out peatlands. The thickness of the peat deposit is 30–80 cm and it is separated by troughs into gently sloping polygonal peat blocks up to 20 m2 in size. On some northern islands the peat blocks have permafrost cores. The main components of the dried out peatlands vegetation are dwarf shrubs and lichens. The peat stratigraphy reveals two stages of peatland development. On the first stage, the islands were covered with wet cottongrass carpets, which repeated the convex relief shape. On the second stage, they were occupied by the xeromorphic vegetation. We suggest that these polygonal patterned peatlands are the remnants of blanket bogs, the formation of which assumes the conditions of a much more humid climate in the historical past. The time of their active development was calculated according to the White Sea level changes and radiocarbon dates from 1000–4000 BP.

Analysis of the pattern of potential woody cover in Texas savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xuebin; Crews, Kelley A.; Yan, Bowei

2016-10-01

While woody plant encroachment has been observed worldwide in savannas and adversely affected the ecosystem structure and function, a thorough understanding of the nature of this phenomenon is urgently required for savanna management and restoration. Among others, potential woody cover (the maximum realizable woody cover that a given site can support), especially its variation over environment has huge implication on the encroachment management in particular, and on tree-grass interactions in general. This project was designed to explore the pattern of potential woody cover in Texas savanna, an ecosystem with a large rainfall gradient in west-east direction. Substantial random pixels were sampled across the study area from MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) tree cover layer (250 m). Since potential woody cover is suggested to be limited by water availability, a nonlinear 99th quantile regression was performed between the observed woody cover and mean annual precipitation (MAP) to model the pattern of potential woody cover. Research result suggests a segmented relationship between potential woody cover and MAP at MODIS scale. Potential biases as well as the practical and theoretical implications were discussed. Through this study, the hypothesis about the primary role of water availability in determining savanna woody cover was further confirmed in a relatively understudied US-located savanna.

Space-time analysis of snow cover change in the Romanian Carpathians (2001-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Cosmin Sandric, Ionut

2017-04-01

Snow cover is recognized as an essential climate variable, highly sensitive to the ongoing climate warming, which plays an important role in regulating mountain ecosystems. Evidence from the existing weather stations located above 800 m over the last 50 years points out that the climate of the Romanian Carpathians is visibly changing, showing an ongoing and consistent warming process. Quantifying and attributing the changes in snow cover on various spatial and temporal scales have a great environmental and socio-economic importance for this mountain region. The study is revealing the inter-seasonal changes in the timing and distribution of snow cover across the Romanian Carpathians, by combining gridded snow data (CARPATCLIM dataset, 1961-2010) and remote sensing data (2001-2016) in specific space-time assessment at regional scale. The geostatistical approach applied in this study, based on a GIS hotspot analysis, takes advantage of all the dimensions in the datasets, in order to understand the space-time trends in this climate variable at monthly time-scale. The MODIS AQUA and TERRA images available from 2001 to 2016 have been processed using ArcGIS for Desktop and Python programming language. All the images were masked out with the Carpathians boundary. Only the pixels with snow have been retained for analysis. The regional trends in snow cover distribution and timing have been analysed using Space-Time cube with ArcGIS for Desktop, according with Esri documentation using the Mann-Kendall trend test on every location with data as an independent bin time-series test. The study aimed also to assess the location of emerging hotspots of snow cover change in Carpathians. These hotspots have been calculated using Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for each bin using Hot Spot Analysis implemented in ArcGIS for Desktop. On regional scale, snow cover appear highly sensitive to the decreasing trends in air temperatures and land surface temperatures, combined with the decrease in seasonal precipitation, especially at lower elevations in all the three divisions of the Romanian Carpathians (generally below 1,700-1,800 m). The space-time patterns of snow cover change are dominated by a significant decreasing trend of snow days and earlier spring snow melt. The key findings of this study provides robust indication of a decreasing snow trends across the Carpathian Mountain region and could provide valuable spatial and temporal snow information for other related research fields as well as for an effective environmental monitoring in the mountain ecosystems of the Carpathian region

Spatiotemporal dynamics of landscape pattern and hydrologic process in watershed systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Tsvetkova, Olga

2011-06-01

SummaryLand use change is influenced by spatial and temporal factors that interact with watershed resources. Modeling these changes is critical to evaluate emerging land use patterns and to predict variation in water quantity and quality. The objective of this study is to model the nature and emergence of spatial patterns in land use and water resource impacts using a spatially explicit and dynamic landscape simulation. Temporal changes are predicted using a probabilistic Markovian process and spatial interaction through cellular automation. The MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) analysis with cellular automation is linked to hydrologic equations to simulate landscape patterns and processes. The spatiotemporal watershed dynamics (SWD) model is applied to a subwatershed in the Blackstone River watershed of Massachusetts to predict potential land use changes and expected runoff and sediment loading. Changes in watershed land use and water resources are evaluated over 100 years at a yearly time step. Results show high potential for rapid urbanization that could result in lowering of groundwater recharge and increased storm water peaks. The watershed faces potential decreases in agricultural and forest area that affect open space and pervious cover of the watershed system. Water quality deteriorated due to increased runoff which can also impact stream morphology. While overland erosion decreased, instream erosion increased from increased runoff from urban areas. Use of urban best management practices (BMPs) in sensitive locations, preventive strategies, and long-term conservation planning will be useful in sustaining the watershed system.

Analysis of the spatial dynamics and drivers of forest cover change in the Lempa River Basin of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaneda, Hector

This work studies the changes of forest cover that have happened in the Lempa River Basin of El Salvador during the period 1979-2003. Although historically the trend has been towards the loss of forest cover since colonial times, over the period of study a large increase in forest cover was detected. The main tool of evaluation was the analysis of LANDSAT satellite imagery. Images for the dates 1979, 1990-91, and 2003 were classified into forest and noon-forest land covers. Then the changes in land cover were analyzed to determine what were the social, geophysical and climatic drivers determining why and where these new forest appeared. The results indicate that there has been an overall increase in forest cover from 20% in 1979 to 43% in 2003. Although there has been extensive deforestation, this has happened mostly around the main urban centers within the basin. In the more rural and remote areas, the tendency has been towards a resurgence in forest cover. The increase in forest was found to be significantly related to remittances, inaccessibility to roads and markets, density of urban populations, poverty and the civil war of the 1980s. Among the geospatial factors that determined where deforestation and reforestation happened were distance to roads and urban centers, slope, elevation, land use capability, and irrigation potential. The results indicate that the tendency in the future will be towards further reforestation but at a slower rate. Although reforestation and deforestation happened simultaneously, there are clear differences in the spatial patterns that each of these phenomena follow. In terms of climate, it was found areas subjected to inter-annual rainfall extremes due to El Nino Southern Oscillation, particularly areas with low agricultural potential, were more likely to be abandoned and left to revert to forest than those with more stable rainfall. The results of this study support the hypothesis that El Salvador is undergoing a Forest Transition process, that is a recuperation of forest cover due to urbanization, migration and economic growth.

Trajectory analysis of land use and land cover maps to improve spatial-temporal patterns, and impact assessment on groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zomlot, Z.; Verbeiren, B.; Huysmans, M.; Batelaan, O.

2017-11-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a consequence of human-induced global environmental change. It is also considered one of the major factors affecting groundwater recharge. Uncertainties and inconsistencies in LULC maps are one of the difficulties that LULC timeseries analysis face and which have a significant effect on hydrological impact analysis. Therefore, an accuracy assessment approach of LULC timeseries is needed for a more reliable hydrological analysis and prediction. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land use uncertainty and to improve the accuracy of a timeseries of CORINE (coordination of information on the environment) land cover maps by using a new approach of identifying spatial-temporal LULC change trajectories as a pre-processing tool. This ensures consistency of model input when dealing with land-use dynamics and as such improves the accuracy of land use maps and consequently groundwater recharge estimation. As a case study the impact of consistent land use changes from 1990 until 2013 on groundwater recharge for the Flanders-Brussels region is assessed. The change trajectory analysis successfully assigned a rational trajectory to 99% of all pixels. The methodology is shown to be powerful in correcting interpretation inconsistencies and overestimation errors in CORINE land cover maps. The overall kappa (cell-by-cell map comparison) improved from 0.6 to 0.8 and from 0.2 to 0.7 for forest and pasture land use classes respectively. The study shows that the inconsistencies in the land use maps introduce uncertainty in groundwater recharge estimation in a range of 10-30%. The analysis showed that during the period of 1990-2013 the LULC changes were mainly driven by urban expansion. The results show that the resolution at which the spatial analysis is performed is important; the recharge differences using original and corrected CORINE land cover maps increase considerably with increasing spatial resolution. This study indicates that improving consistency of land use map timeseries is of critical importance for assessing land use change and its environmental impact.

Precipitation Based Malaria Patterns in the Amazon -- Will Deforestation Alter Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, S. H.; Durieux, L.; Elguero, E.; Foley, J.; Gagnon, R.; Guegan, J.; Patz, J.

2007-12-01

The World Health Organization, estimates that forty-two percent of malaria cases are "associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design". This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at local scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of changing land use and subsequent precipitation regimes on malaria risk. To understand how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence. Future research will link the patterns of precipitation and malaria to anticipated changes in climate from deforestation in the Basin.

Pairing top-down and bottom-up approaches to analyze catchment scale management of water quality and quantity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovette, J. P.; Duncan, J. M.; Band, L. E.

2016-12-01

Watershed management requires information on the hydrologic impacts of local to regional land use, land cover and infrastructure conditions. Management of runoff volumes, storm flows, and water quality can benefit from large scale, "top-down" screening tools, using readily available information, as well as more detailed, "bottom-up" process-based models that explicitly track local runoff production and routing from sources to receiving water bodies. Regional scale data, available nationwide through the NHD+, and top-down models based on aggregated catchment information provide useful tools for estimating regional patterns of peak flows, volumes and nutrient loads at the catchment level. Management impacts can be estimated with these models, but have limited ability to resolve impacts beyond simple changes to land cover proportions. Alternatively, distributed process-based models provide more flexibility in modeling management impacts by resolving spatial patterns of nutrient source, runoff generation, and uptake. This bottom-up approach can incorporate explicit patterns of land cover, drainage connectivity, and vegetation extent, but are typically applied over smaller areas. Here, we first model peak flood flows and nitrogen loads across North Carolina's 70,000 NHD+ catchments using USGS regional streamflow regression equations and the SPARROW model. We also estimate management impact by altering aggregated sources in each of these models. To address the missing spatial implications of the top-down approach, we further explore the demand for riparian buffers as a management strategy, simulating the accumulation of nutrient sources along flow paths and the potential mitigation of these sources through forested buffers. We use the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to model changes across several basins in North Carolina's Piedmont and Blue Ridge regions, ranging in size from 15 - 1,130 km2. The two approaches provide a complementary set of tools for large area screening, followed by smaller, more process based assessment and design tools.

Can we use Earth Observations to improve monthly water level forecasts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

2017-12-01

Dynamical-statistical hydrologic forecasting approaches benefit from different strengths in comparison with traditional hydrologic forecasting systems: they are computationally efficient, can integrate and `learn' from a broad selection of input data (e.g., General Circulation Model (GCM) forecasts, Earth Observation time series, teleconnection patterns), and can take advantage of recent progress in machine learning (e.g. multi-model blending, post-processing and ensembling techniques). Recent efforts to develop a dynamical-statistical ensemble approach for forecasting seasonal streamflow using both GCM forecasts and changing land cover have shown promising results over the U.S. Midwest. Here, we use climate forecasts from several GCMs of the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) alongside 15-minute stage time series from the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) and land cover classes extracted from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative 300 m annual Global Land Cover time series. With these data, we conduct systematic long-range probabilistic forecasting of monthly water levels in UK catchments over timescales ranging from one to twelve months ahead. We evaluate the improvement in model fit and model forecasting skill that comes from using land cover classes as predictors in the models. This work opens up new possibilities for combining Earth Observation time series with GCM forecasts to predict a variety of hazards from space using data science techniques.

The Importance of Glaciers as Thermal Buffers in the Kitsumkalum River Watershed, Coast Mountains, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beedle, M. J.; Menounos, B.; Biagi, M.; White, C.

2016-12-01

Glacier volume in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia is projected to decrease by up to 60% by the end of this century. The hydrologic impact of this change, however, is uncertain; these changes may negatively affect sport, commercial and subsistence fisheries dependent on Pacific salmon. To quantify hydrologic impacts of declining glacier cover, we commenced monitoring stream temperature and glacier change of the Kitsumkalum River basin, an important watershed for First Nations and sport fisheries. Our stream temperature sites include the main stem of the lower Kitsumkalum River, Kalum Lake and six sub-drainages with glacier cover that varied between 0.97-14.4%. Data for the 2016 hydrologic season reveal that maximum weekly average temperature (MWAT) ranged from 8.46 to 13.90 °C; more heavily glacierized basins maintained a lower MWAT than the less glacierized basins. Time series of MWAT indicate that temperatures of sub-basins in May differed by 1.11°C, presumably due to a similar pattern of snowmelt among the basins. By mid-July, MWAT values varied by 4.85 °C. Basins with less glacier cover (<1.24%) had their MWAT increase by an average of +6.96 ± 0.18 °C, while those with more glacier cover (5.29-14.4%) increased by an average of +2.80 ± 0.61 °C. If current conditions persist, it is probable that the lightly glacierized basins (<1.24%) will reach MWAT values exceeding the optimal range for salmon growth (12.8-14.8 °C). As glaciers of the Kitsumkalum watershed continue to recede in the coming decades, it is likely that all streams will approach temperatures less optimal for salmon growth, particularly during hot, dry summers. Glacierized watersheds, even with as little as 5% glacier cover, have significantly cooler stream temperatures than those with minimal (<1%) or no glacier cover. The thermal characteristics of streams in lightly-glacierized watersheds will change markedly in the coming decades. This change represents a near term impact from loss of glacier volume and an imminent resource management challenge.

High altitude color photography as a tool for regional analysis: As demonstrated for southeastern Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eyre, L. A.

1972-01-01

High altitude color and color infrared photography of the tri-county region of southeast Florida made it feasible to evaluate its potential for quantifying the dimensions of regional change. Attention was focused upon three main aspects of change in the region, which in fact overlap. These were; (1) the transformation of the southeast Florida wetlands; (2) the expansion of agriculture; and (3) the growth of the urbanized area. The development analyzed covered the period of thirteen years from 1956 to 1969. Results using this new 18 km photography were superior because of the degree of resolution, the combined power of color and color infrared interpretation, and the large area covered by each frame. The greatest advantage of high altitude imagery is the time-saving element, since it is possible to delineate and identify major geographic patterns over thousands of sq km very rapidly.

Satellites monitor Atlanta regional development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Todd, William J.; Blackmon, C.C.; Rudasill, R.G.

1979-01-01

Since the adoption of a Regional Development Plan in 1975, the Atlanta Regional Commission has investigated methods for monitoring regional development patterns in a periodic, efficient manner. A promising approach appears to be the use of Landsat satellite data. In cooperation with the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center, the commission used machine processing of digital temporal overlays of Landsat data collected in 1972, 1974 and 1976 to detect land use and land cover changes in the Atlanta metropolitan area. Results of the analysis revealed the conversion of forested and open space areas to residential, commercial and industrial land use in the urban-rural fringe zone from 1972 to 1974 and from 1974 to 1976. The study indicated that a land use and land cover change-detection program may be used to revise small-area forecasts of land use, population and employment made by planning models.

Integrity Testing of Pile Cover Using Distributed Fibre Optic Sensing

PubMed Central

Rui, Yi; Kechavarzi, Cedric; O’Leary, Frank; Barker, Chris; Nicholson, Duncan; Soga, Kenichi

2017-01-01

The integrity of cast-in-place foundation piles is a major concern in geotechnical engineering. In this study, distributed fibre optic sensing (DFOS) cables, embedded in a pile during concreting, are used to measure the changes in concrete curing temperature profile to infer concrete cover thickness through modelling of heat transfer processes within the concrete and adjacent ground. A field trial was conducted at a high-rise building construction site in London during the construction of a 51 m long test pile. DFOS cables were attached to the reinforcement cage of the pile at four different axial directions to obtain distributed temperature change data along the pile. The monitoring data shows a clear development of concrete hydration temperature with time and the pattern of the change varies due to small changes in concrete cover. A one-dimensional axisymmetric heat transfer finite element (FE) model is used to estimate the pile geometry with depth by back analysing the DFOS data. The results show that the estimated pile diameter varies with depth in the range between 1.40 and 1.56 m for this instrumented pile. This average pile diameter profile compares well to that obtained with the standard Thermal Integrity Profiling (TIP) method. A parametric study is conducted to examine the sensitivity of concrete and soil thermal properties on estimating the pile geometry. PMID:29257094

Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

2013-05-01

How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

Integrity Testing of Pile Cover Using Distributed Fibre Optic Sensing.

PubMed

Rui, Yi; Kechavarzi, Cedric; O'Leary, Frank; Barker, Chris; Nicholson, Duncan; Soga, Kenichi

2017-12-19

The integrity of cast-in-place foundation piles is a major concern in geotechnical engineering. In this study, distributed fibre optic sensing (DFOS) cables, embedded in a pile during concreting, are used to measure the changes in concrete curing temperature profile to infer concrete cover thickness through modelling of heat transfer processes within the concrete and adjacent ground. A field trial was conducted at a high-rise building construction site in London during the construction of a 51 m long test pile. DFOS cables were attached to the reinforcement cage of the pile at four different axial directions to obtain distributed temperature change data along the pile. The monitoring data shows a clear development of concrete hydration temperature with time and the pattern of the change varies due to small changes in concrete cover. A one-dimensional axisymmetric heat transfer finite element (FE) model is used to estimate the pile geometry with depth by back analysing the DFOS data. The results show that the estimated pile diameter varies with depth in the range between 1.40 and 1.56 m for this instrumented pile. This average pile diameter profile compares well to that obtained with the standard Thermal Integrity Profiling (TIP) method. A parametric study is conducted to examine the sensitivity of concrete and soil thermal properties on estimating the pile geometry.

Quantifying spatial patterns in the Yakama Nation Tribal Forest and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest to assess forest health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilder, T. F.

2013-05-01

Over the past century western United States have experienced drastic anthropogenic land use change from practices such as agriculture, fire exclusion, and timber harvesting. These changes have complex social, cultural, economic, and ecological interactions and consequences. This research studied landscapes patterns of watersheds with similar LANDFIRE potential vegetation in the Southern Washington Cascades physiographic province, within the Yakama Nation Tribal Forest (YTF) and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest, Naches Ranger District (NRD). In the selected watersheds, vegetation-mapping units were delineated and populated based on physiognomy of homogeneous areas of vegetative composition and structure using high-resolution aerial photos. Cover types and structural classes were derived from the raw, photo-interpreted vegetation attributes for individual vegetation mapping units and served as individual and composite response variables to quantify and assess spatial patterns and forest health conditions between the two ownerships. Structural classes in both the NRD and YTF were spatially clustered (Z-score 3.1, p-value 0.01; Z-score 2.3, p-value 0.02, respectively), however, ownership and logging type both explained a significant amount of variance in structural class composition. Based on FRAGSTATS landscape metrics, structural classes in the NRD displayed greater clustering and fragmentation with lower interspersion relative to the YTF. The NRD landscape was comprised of 47.4% understory reinitiation structural class type and associated high FRAGASTAT class metrics demonstrated high aggregation with moderate interspersion. Stem exclusion open canopy displayed the greatest dispersal of structural class types throughout the NRD, but adjacencies were correlated to other class types. In the YTF, stem exclusion open canopy comprised 37.7% of the landscape and displayed a high degree of aggregation and interspersion about clusters throughout the YTF. Composite cover type-structural class spatial autocorrelation was clustered in the NRD (Z-score 5.1, p-value 0.01), while the YTF exhibited a random spatial pattern. After accounting for location effects, logging type was the most significant factor explaining variation in composite cover-structure composition. FRAGSTATS landscape metrics identified composite cover-structure classes in the NRD displayed greater aggregation and fragmentation with lower interspersion relative to the YTF. The NRD landscape was comprised of 30.5% Pinus ponderosa-understory reinitiation and associated class metrics demonstrated a high degree of aggregation and fragmentation with low interspersion. Pinus ponderosa-stem exclusion open canopy comprised 24.6% of the YTF landscape and associated class metrics displayed moderate aggregation and fragmentation with high interspersion. A discussion integrating the results and existing relevant literature was indited to assess management regime influences on landscape patterns and, in turn, forest health attributes. This dialog is in provision of enhancing collaboration to optimize forest-health restoration activities across ownerships throughout the study area.

Statistical Attribution of Changes in Streamflow in the U.S. Midwest over the 20th and 21st Centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

2016-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the Midwest over the past century. These changes have largely been attributed to the influence of upward trends in heavy precipitation and agricultural increases in row crop production. However, attempts to understand the specific causes of the changes in streamflow timing, magnitude, frequency, and seasonality have led to much debate in recent years, particularly regarding the influence of changing agricultural practices. Separating the different - climatic or land use/land cover - drivers of changing streamflow from a statistical perspective is not straightforward, and different methods have been implemented in the literature. Here, we develop statistical models in 476 U.S. Midwest river basins with long-term USGS discharge records to investigate the influence of the main drivers of changing streamflows: urbanization (using basin-averaged population per square kilometer), agricultural land cover (total corn and soybean harvested acreage), basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture (using precipitation from the month preceding each season as a proxy). We model the changes in the seasonal discharge quantiles from low to high flows as a function of these drivers (separately and combined), to evaluate which set of predictors is the best in each river basin. Results indicate that precipitation is indeed the most widespread driver in regions that are neither predominantly agricultural nor heavily urbanized. Elsewhere, we find strong regional patterns in terms of the best-fitting drivers, depending on climate, agricultural land cover and urbanization. Using these models, we then examine the sensitivity of discharge to different scenarios based on potential changes in each of the predictors. The projected changes have profound implications for water resources management across the Midwest.

Plant communities on infertile soils are less sensitive to climate change.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen; Fernandez-Going, Barbara; Eskelinen, Anu; Copeland, Stella

2015-11-01

Much evidence suggests that plant communities on infertile soils are relatively insensitive to increased water deficit caused by increasing temperature and/or decreasing precipitation. However, a multi-decadal study of community change in the western USA does not support this conclusion. This paper tests explanations related to macroclimatic differences, overstorey effects on microclimate, variation in soil texture and plant functional traits. A re-analysis was undertaken of the changes in the multi-decadal study, which concerned forest understorey communities on infertile (serpentine) and fertile soils in an aridifying climate (southern Oregan) from 1949-1951 to 2007-2008. Macroclimatic variables, overstorey cover and soil texture were used as new covariates. As an alternative measure of climate-related change, the community mean value of specific leaf area was used, a functional trait measuring drought tolerance. We investigated whether these revised analyses supported the prediction of lesser sensitivity to climate change in understorey communities on infertile serpentine soils. Overstorey cover, but not macroclimate or soil texture, was a significant covariate of community change over time. It strongly buffered understorey temperatures, was correlated with less change and averaged >50 % lower on serpentine soils, thereby counteracting the lower climate sensitivity of understorey herbs on these soils. Community mean specific leaf area showed the predicted pattern of less change over time in serpentine than non-serpentine communities. Based on the current balance of evidence, plant communities on infertile serpentine soils are less sensitive to changes in the climatic water balance than communities on more fertile soils. However, this advantage may in some cases be lessened by their sparser overstorey cover. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluating the Accuracy of MODIS Products in the Southern Scean Using Tagged Marine Predators, and Measuring Significant Change in 12 Years of [Chl-a], Zeu and Cloud Fraction Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biermann, L.; Boehme, L.; Guinet, C.

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean is vital to the functioning of our global atmospheric and marine systems. However, this key ocean is also measurably responsive to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Decreased ozone and increases in greenhouse gases appear to be forcing the SAM towards its positive phase, significantly changing wind patterns and, thus, altering mixing and circulation regimes of Southern Ocean waters. Inevitably, these changes must impact on patterns of phytoplankton abundance and distribution. Using remotely sensed data that have been evaluated alongside in situ data collected by tagged southern elephant seals, this work investigates if changes to summer phytoplankton abundance and distribution in the Southern Ocean can already be measured in the 12-year MODIS record. Patterns and trends in surface chlorophyll-a concentration ([Chl-a]), the depth of the 1% light level (Zeu) and mean cloud fraction are examined over time, as well as relative to the SAM. Trends in [Chl-a] and Zeu over the months of October, November and December suggest overall declines in surface phytoplankton, and shifts in timing of blooms. Indeed, by January and February over the 12-year timeseries, trends reverse to suggest increases in phytoplankton abundance. Relative to the increasingly positive SAM, trends of overall decline in phytoplankton abundance are significant only over Decembers. Trends in cloud cover are more difficult to interpret but the Atlantic Ocean appears to be becoming less cloudy, the southern sector of the Pacific Ocean appears to be becoming cloudier, and that the southern sector of the Indian Ocean is most variable over time. Only the increase in cloud over the southern Pacific in Decembers appears to be significantly related to changes to the SAM. Interestingly, in no cases were the changes to [Chl-a], Zeu or cloud cover strictly zonal. The asymmetry of these results reinforces findings from previous studies addressing responses of the MLD (and [Chl-a]) to the SAM.

Spatial patterns of land cover in the United States: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Kurt H. Riitters

2011-01-01

Land cover patterns inventoried from a national land cover map provide information about the landscape context and fragmentation of the Nation’s forests, grasslands, and shrublands. This inventory is required to quantify, map, and evaluate the capacities of landscapes to provide ecological goods and services sustainably. This report documents the procedures to...

Spatial and temporal variability of organic C and N concentrations and export from 30 boreal rivers induced by land use and climate.

PubMed

Mattsson, Tuija; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Räike, Antti; Lepistö, Ahti; Thomas, David N

2015-03-01

Climate change scenarios for northern boreal regions indicate that there will be increasing temperature and precipitation, and the changes are expected to be larger in winter than in summer. These precipitation and discharge patterns, coupled with shorter ice cover/soil frost periods in the future would be expected to contribute significantly to changing flow paths of organic matter over a range of land use patterns. In order to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality of organic matter export we compared total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) concentrations and export, during different seasons and climatically different years, over 12 years for 30 Finnish rivers separated into forest, agriculture and peat dominated catchments. The mean monthly TOC concentrations were highest during autumn and there was also a peak in May during the highest flow period. The mean monthly concentrations of TON were lowest during winter, increased in spring and remaining high throughout summer and autumn. The TOC/TON ratios were lowest during summer and highest during winter, and in all seasons the ratios were lowest in catchments with a high proportion of agricultural land and highest in peat-dominated catchments. The seasonality of TOC and TON exports reflected geographical location, hydrology and land use patterns. Most of the TOC and TON were transported during the high flow following the spring snowmelt and during rainfall in autumn. In all catchments the relative importance of the spring snowmelt decreased in wet and warm years. However, in peat-dominated catchments the proportion of spring period was over 30% of the annual export even in these wet and warm years, while in other catchments the proportion was about 20%. This might be linked to the northern location of the peat-dominated catchments and the permanent snow cover and spring snowmelt, even in warm years. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

PubMed

Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

2017-08-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (<10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Measuring coral reef decline through meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Côté, I.M; Gill, J.A; Gardner, T.A; Watkinson, A.R

2005-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are in decline worldwide, owing to a variety of anthropogenic and natural causes. One of the most obvious signals of reef degradation is a reduction in live coral cover. Past and current rates of loss of coral are known for many individual reefs; however, until recently, no large-scale estimate was available. In this paper, we show how meta-analysis can be used to integrate existing small-scale estimates of change in coral and macroalgal cover, derived from in situ surveys of reefs, to generate a robust assessment of long-term patterns of large-scale ecological change. Using a large dataset from Caribbean reefs, we examine the possible biases inherent in meta-analytical studies and the sensitivity of the method to patchiness in data availability. Despite the fact that our meta-analysis included studies that used a variety of sampling methods, the regional estimate of change in coral cover we obtained is similar to that generated by a standardized survey programme that was implemented in 1991 in the Caribbean. We argue that for habitat types that are regularly and reasonably well surveyed in the course of ecological or conservation research, meta-analysis offers a cost-effective and rapid method for generating robust estimates of past and current states. PMID:15814352

Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Arun; Mukherjee, Sandip; Khatua, Dipam; Ghosh, Subhajit; Mitra, Debasish; Ghosh, Tuhin

2014-08-01

In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

2013-01-01

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

The impact of roster changes on absenteeism and incident frequency in an Australian coal mine

PubMed Central

Baker, A; Heiler, K; Ferguson, S

2003-01-01

Background: The occupational health and safety implications associated with compressed and extended work periods have not been fully explored in the mining sector. Aims: To examine the impact on employee health and safety of changes to the roster system in an Australian coal mine. Methods: Absenteeism and incident frequency rate data were collected over a 33 month period that covered three different roster schedules. Period 1 covered the original 8-hour/7-day roster. Period 2 covered a 12-month period under a 12-hour/7-day schedule, and period 3 covered a 12-month period during which a roster that scheduled shifts only on weekdays, with uncapped overtime on weekends and days off (12-hour/5-day) was in place. Data were collected and analysed from the maintenance, mining, and coal preparation plant (CPP) sectors. Results: The only significant change in absenteeism rates was an increase in the maintenance sector in the third data collection period. Absenteeism rates in the mining and CPP sectors were not different between data collection periods. The increase in the maintenance sector may be owing to: (1) a greater requirement for maintenance employees to perform overtime as a result of the roster change compared to other employee groups; or (2) greater monotony associated with extended work periods for maintenance employees compared to others. After the first roster change, accident incident frequency decreased in the CPP sector but not in the other sectors. There was no effect on incident frequency after the second roster change in any sector. Conclusions: The current study did not find significant negative effects of a 12-hour pattern, when compared to an 8-hour system. However, when unregulated and excessive overtime was introduced as part of the 12-hour/5-day roster, absenteeism rates were increased in the maintenance sector. The combination of excessive work hours and lack of consultation with employees regarding the second change may have contributed to the overall negative effects. PMID:12499456

Vegetation coupling to global climate: Trajectories of vegetation change and phenology modeling from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Jeremy Isaac

Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat) and 500m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). A robust logistic-growth model of canopy cover was employed to determine phenological characteristics at each forest stand. The duel analyses revealed important findings: (a) local phenological gradients from microclimatic structures are highly influential in broad-scale phenological observations; (b) satellite observed phenology reflects observations of canopy growth from field studies; (c) phenological anomalies in urban areas which were previously attributed to urban heat may be a function of urban-specific land cover (i.e. green lawns); and (d) patterns of interannual variability in phenology at the regional scale have high spatial coherency and appear to be driven by broad-scale climatic change. Satellite-observed phenology may reflect temperatures during spring and provides a proxy of climate variability.

Interactive Effects of Storms, Drought, and Weekly Land Cover Changes on Water Quality Patterns in an Agricultural-dominated Subtropical Catchment in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julian, J.; Owsley, B.; de Beurs, K.; Hughes, A.

2013-12-01

Rivers are the funnels of landscapes, with the quality of water at the catchment outlet reflecting interactions among geomorphic processes, vegetation characteristics, weather patterns, and anthropogenic land uses. The impacts of changing climate and land cover on water quality are not straightforward; but instead, are set by the interaction of numerous landscape components at multiple spatiotemporal scales. In agricultural-dominated subtropical landscapes such as the Hoteo River Catchment in northern North Island of New Zealand, the land surface can be very dynamic, responding quickly to storms, drought, forest clearings, and grazing practices. In order to capture these short-term fluctuations, we created an 8-day land disturbance index for the catchment using MODIS Nadir BRDF-adjusted reflectance (NBAR) data (500 meter resolution) from 2000 to 2013. We also fused this time-series with Landsat TM/ETM surface reflectance data (30 meter resolution) to more precisely capture the location and extent of these land disturbances. This high-resolution land disturbance time-series was then compared to daily rainfall, daily river discharge, and monthly water samples to assess the effects of changing weather and land cover on a suite of water quality variables including water clarity, turbidity, ammonium (NH4), nitrate (NO3), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved reactive phosphate (DRP), total phosphorus (TP), and fecal coliforms. Forest clearings in the early part of our study period created the most intense land disturbances, which led to elevated turbidity and DRP during subsequent storms. Pasture areas during drought were also characterized by high disturbance indices, particularly in 2013 - the worst drought on record for northern New Zealand. Seasonal effects on land disturbance and water quality were also detected, especially for water clarity and turbidity. From 2011 to 2013, river discharge and turbidity from three sub-catchments were measured at 5-minute intervals to capture rainfall event-based water quality patterns. Together, the event-based and monthly turbidity data suggest that intense land disturbances in the Hoteo Catchment have the ability to switch the catchment from supply-limited (river loadings are dictated by what is available from the landscape) to transport-limited (loadings from the landscape are abundant, and thus dictated by water runoff). The findings from this research can be used to assess (1) the vulnerability of agricultural land uses to climate changes, particularly the impact of severe droughts from intensifying ENSO phenomena; and (2) the interactive effects of changing climate and land use on water quality across multiple spatiotemporal scales.

Temporal and spatial patterns in vegetation and atmospheric properties from AVIRIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, D.A.; Green, R.O.; Adams, J.B.

1997-12-01

Little research has focused on the use of imaging spectrometry for change detection. In this paper, the authors apply Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data to the monitoring of seasonal changes in atmospheric water vapor, liquid water, and surface cover in the vicinity of the Jasper Ridge, CA, for three dates in 1992. Apparent surface reflectance was retrieved and water vapor and liquid water mapped by using a radiative-transfer-based inversion that accounts for spatially variable atmospheres. Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) was used to model reflectance data as mixtures of green vegetation (GV), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV), soil, and shade. Temporal andmore » spatial patterns in endmember fractions and liquid water were compared to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The reflectance retrieval algorithm was tested by using a temporally invariant target.« less

Vulnerability of island tropical montane cloud forests to climate change, with special reference to East Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.

1998-01-01

Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable ‘listening posts’ for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change.

Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America.

PubMed

Baldi, Germán; Nosetto, Marcelo D; Aragón, Roxana; Aversa, Fernando; Paruelo, José M; Jobbágy, Esteban G

2008-09-03

In the last decades, South American ecosystems underwent important functional modifications due to climate alterations and direct human intervention on land use and land cover. Among remotely sensed data sets, NOAA-AVHRR "Normalized Difference Vegetation Index" (NDVI) represents one of the most powerful tools to evaluate these changes thanks to their extended temporal coverage. In this paper we explored the possibilities and limitations of three commonly used NOAA-AVHRR NDVI series (PAL, GIMMS and FASIR) to detect ecosystem functional changes in the South American continent. We performed pixel-based linear regressions for four NDVI variables (average annual, maximum annual, minimum annual and intra-annual coefficient of variation) for the 1982-1999 period and (1) analyzed the convergences and divergences of significant multi-annual trends identified across all series, (2) explored the degree of aggregation of the trends using the O-ring statistic, and (3) evaluated observed trends using independent information on ecosystem functional changes in five focal regions. Several differences arose in terms of the patterns of change (the sign, localization and total number of pixels with changes). FASIR presented the highest proportion of changing pixels (32.7%) and GIMMS the lowest (16.2%). PAL and FASIR data sets showed the highest agreement, with a convergence of detected trends on 71.2% of the pixels. Even though positive and negative changes showed substantial spatial aggregation, important differences in the scale of aggregation emerged among the series, with GIMMS showing the smaller scale (≤11 pixels). The independent evaluations suggest higher accuracy in the detection of ecosystem changes among PAL and FASIR series than with GIMMS, as they detected trends that match expected shifts. In fact, this last series eliminated most of the long term patterns over the continent. For example, in the "Eastern Paraguay" and "Uruguay River margins" focal regions, the extensive changes due to land use and land cover change expansion were detected by PAL and FASIR, but completely ignored by GIMMS. Although the technical explanation of the differences remains unclear and needs further exploration, we found that the evaluation of this type of remote sensing tools should not only be focused at the level of assumptions (i.e. physical or mathematical aspects of image processing), but also at the level of results (i.e. contrasting observed patterns with independent proofs of change). We finally present the online collaborative initiative "Land ecosystem change utility for South America", which facilitates this type of evaluations and helps to identify the most important functional changes of the continent.

Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America

PubMed Central

Baldi, Germán; Nosetto, Marcelo D.; Aragón, Roxana; Aversa, Fernando; Paruelo, José M.; Jobbágy, Esteban G.

2008-01-01

In the last decades, South American ecosystems underwent important functional modifications due to climate alterations and direct human intervention on land use and land cover. Among remotely sensed data sets, NOAA-AVHRR “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index” (NDVI) represents one of the most powerful tools to evaluate these changes thanks to their extended temporal coverage. In this paper we explored the possibilities and limitations of three commonly used NOAA-AVHRR NDVI series (PAL, GIMMS and FASIR) to detect ecosystem functional changes in the South American continent. We performed pixel-based linear regressions for four NDVI variables (average annual, maximum annual, minimum annual and intra-annual coefficient of variation) for the 1982-1999 period and (1) analyzed the convergences and divergences of significant multi-annual trends identified across all series, (2) explored the degree of aggregation of the trends using the O-ring statistic, and (3) evaluated observed trends using independent information on ecosystem functional changes in five focal regions. Several differences arose in terms of the patterns of change (the sign, localization and total number of pixels with changes). FASIR presented the highest proportion of changing pixels (32.7%) and GIMMS the lowest (16.2%). PAL and FASIR data sets showed the highest agreement, with a convergence of detected trends on 71.2% of the pixels. Even though positive and negative changes showed substantial spatial aggregation, important differences in the scale of aggregation emerged among the series, with GIMMS showing the smaller scale (≤11 pixels). The independent evaluations suggest higher accuracy in the detection of ecosystem changes among PAL and FASIR series than with GIMMS, as they detected trends that match expected shifts. In fact, this last series eliminated most of the long term patterns over the continent. For example, in the “Eastern Paraguay” and “Uruguay River margins” focal regions, the extensive changes due to land use and land cover change expansion were detected by PAL and FASIR, but completely ignored by GIMMS. Although the technical explanation of the differences remains unclear and needs further exploration, we found that the evaluation of this type of remote sensing tools should not only be focused at the level of assumptions (i.e. physical or mathematical aspects of image processing), but also at the level of results (i.e. contrasting observed patterns with independent proofs of change). We finally present the online collaborative initiative “Land ecosystem change utility for South America”, which facilitates this type of evaluations and helps to identify the most important functional changes of the continent. PMID:27873821

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

Evaluation of post fire changes in soil properties and influence on the hydrological and erosive dynamics in a Mediterranean watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanz, Inés; Aguilar, Cristina; Millares, Agustín

2013-04-01

In the last fifty years, forest fires and changes in land use and management practices have had a significant influenceon the evolution of soil loss processes in the Mediterranean area. Forest fires have immediate effects in hydrological processes mainly due to sudden changes in soil properties and vegetation cover. After a fire there is an increase in runoff processes and peak flows and thus in the amount and composition of the sediments produced. Silting in dams downstream is often reported so the description of the post-fire hydrological processes is crucial in order to optimize decision making. This study analyzes a micro-watershed of 25 ha in the south of Spain that suffered a fire in October 2010 burning around a 2 km2 area. As the erosive processes in this area are directly related to concentrated overland flow, an indirect assessment of soil loss is presented in this work based on evaluating changes in runoff in Mediterranean post-fire situations. For this, the study is divided into two main parts. Firstly, changes in soil properties and vegetation cover are evaluated. Secondly, the effects of these changes in the hydrological and erosive dynamics are assessed.The watershed had been monitored in previous studies so soil properties and the vegetation cover before the fire took place were already characterized. Besides, the hydrological response was also available through an already calibrated and validated physically-based distributed hydrological model. For the evaluation of soil properties, field measurement campaigns were designed. Philip Dunne's tests for the determination of saturated hydraulic conductivity, as well as moisture content and bulk density measurements were carried out in both unaltered and burned soil samples. Changes in the vegetation cover fraction were assessed through desktop analysis of Landsat-TM5 platform satellite images as well as through visual inspection in the field campaigns. The analysis of the hydraulic conductivity revealed a reduction in post-fire values of near 90 % over those previous to the fire. Regarding the vegetation cover, the recovery of the burned covers, mainly herbaceous with some bushes, turned out to quick due to the wet character of the year. Nevertheless, an apparent decrease in the cover fraction and thus in the vegetation storage capacity was reported. These changes were incorporated into a new hydrological model configuration and compared to the response previous to the fire. The results point out the rainfall pattern to be a determinant factor in post-fire situation with an increase in modeled runoff of up to 350% and even more in dry years. These results have direct implications in soil erodibility changes in hillslopes as well as a considerable increase in bedload processes in Mediterranean alluvial rivers.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T. P.

2010-10-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary - each cell either contains a tree or it is empty - and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

A Changing Number of Alternative States in the Boreal Biome: Reproducibility Risks of Replacing Remote Sensing Products.

PubMed

Xu, Chi; Holmgren, Milena; Van Nes, Egbert H; Hirota, Marina; Chapin, F Stuart; Scheffer, Marten

2015-01-01

Publicly available remote sensing products have boosted science in many ways. The openness of these data sources suggests high reproducibility. However, as we show here, results may be specific to versions of the data products that can become unavailable as new versions are posted. We focus on remotely-sensed tree cover. Recent studies have used this public resource to detect multi-modality in tree cover in the tropical and boreal biomes. Such patterns suggest alternative stable states separated by critical tipping points. This has important implications for the potential response of these ecosystems to global climate change. For the boreal region, four distinct ecosystem states (i.e., treeless, sparse and dense woodland, and boreal forest) were previously identified by using the Collection 3 data of MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF). Since then, the MODIS VCF product has been updated to Collection 5; and a Landsat VCF product of global tree cover at a fine spatial resolution of 30 meters has been developed. Here we compare these different remote-sensing products of tree cover to show that identification of alternative stable states in the boreal biome partly depends on the data source used. The updated MODIS data and the newer Landsat data consistently demonstrate three distinct modes around similar tree-cover values. Our analysis suggests that the boreal region has three modes: one sparsely vegetated state (treeless), one distinct 'savanna-like' state and one forest state, which could be alternative stable states. Our analysis illustrates that qualitative outcomes of studies may change fundamentally as new versions of remote sensing products are used. Scientific reproducibility thus requires that old versions remain publicly available.

Local processes and regional patterns - Interpreting a multi-decadal altimetry record of Greenland Ice Sheet changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Babonis, G. S.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van der Veen, C. J.; Khan, S. A.; Porter, D. F.

2016-12-01

This study presents a new, comprehensive reconstruction of Greenland Ice Sheet elevation changes, generated using the Surface Elevation And Change detection (SERAC) approach. 35-year long elevation-change time series (1980-2015) were obtained at more than 150,000 locations from observations acquired by NASA's airborne and spaceborne laser altimeters (ATM, LVIS, ICESat), PROMICE laser altimetry data (2007-2011) and a DEM covering the ice sheet margin derived from stereo aerial photographs (1970s-80s). After removing the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and the elastic crustal response to changes in ice loading, the time series were partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics and then converted into mass change histories. Using gridded products, we examined ice sheet elevation, and mass change patterns, and compared them with other estimates at different scales from individual outlet glaciers through large drainage basins, on to the entire ice sheet. Both the SERAC time series and the grids derived from these time series revealed significant spatial and temporal variations of dynamic mass loss and widespread intermittent thinning, indicating the complexity of ice sheet response to climate forcing. To investigate the regional and local controls of ice dynamics, we examined thickness change time series near outlet glacier grounding lines. Changes on most outlet glaciers were consistent with one or more episodes of dynamic thinning that propagates upstream from the glacier terminus. The spatial pattern of the onset, duration, and termination of these dynamic thinning events suggest a regional control, such as warming ocean and air temperatures. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. We use statistical methods, such as principal component analysis and multivariate regression to analyze the dynamic ice-thickness change time series derived by SERAC and to investigate the primary forcings and controls on outlet glacier changes.

Tree species from different functional groups respond differently to environmental changes during establishment.

PubMed

Barbosa, Eduardo R M; van Langevelde, Frank; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Kirkman, Kevin; de Bie, Steven; Prins, Herbert H T

2014-04-01

Savanna plant communities change considerably across time and space. The processes driving savanna plant species diversity, coexistence and turnover along environmental gradients are still unclear. Understanding how species respond differently to varying environmental conditions during the seedling stage, a critical stage for plant population dynamics, is needed to explain the current composition of plant communities and to enable us to predict their responses to future environmental changes. Here we investigate whether seedling response to changes in resource availability, and to competition with grass, varied between two functional groups of African savanna trees: species with small leaves, spines and N-fixing associations (fine-leaved species), and species with broad leaves, no spines, and lacking N-fixing associations (broad-leaved species). We show that while tree species were strongly suppressed by grass, the effect of resource availability on seedling performance varied considerably between the two functional groups. Nutrient inputs increased stem length only of broad-leaved species and only under an even watering treatment. Low light conditions benefited mostly broad-leaved species' growth. Savannas are susceptible to ongoing global environment changes. Our results suggest that an increase in woody cover is only likely to occur in savannas if grass cover is strongly suppressed (e.g. by fire or overgrazing). However, if woody cover does increase, broad-leaved species will benefit most from the resulting shaded environments, potentially leading to an expansion of the distribution of these species. Eutrophication and changes in rainfall patterns may also affect the balance between fine- and broad-leaved species.

Changing patterns in coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki clarki) diet and prey in a gradient of deciduous canopies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romero, N.; Gresswell, R.E.; Li, J.L.

2005-01-01

We examined the influence of riparian vegetation patterns on coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki clarki diet and prey from the summer of 2001 through the spring of 2002. Benthic and drifting invertebrates, allochthonous prey, and fish diet were collected from deciduous, conifer, and mixed sections of three Oregon coastal watersheds. The nine sites were best characterized as a continuum of deciduous cover, and shrub cover and proportion of deciduous canopy were positively correlated (r = 0.74). Most sources of prey (benthic invertebrate biomass, allochthonous invertebrate inputs, aquatic and total invertebrate drift) and aquatic prey ingested by coastal cutthroat trout were greater where shrub cover was more abundant. Only aquatic drift, total invertebrate drift, and allochthonous invertebrates were positively correlated with deciduous vegetation. Compared with coniferous sites, allochthonous invertebrates under deciduous and mixed canopies were almost 30% more abundant. Stream discharge likely influenced seasonal fluxes of aquatic invertebrate biomass in the benthos and drift. Aquatic insects dominated gut contents during this study; however, terrestrial prey were most common in the diet during the summer and fall. In the Pacific northwest, systematic removal of deciduous riparian vegetation to promote conifers may have unintended consequences on food resources of coastal cutthroat trout and aquatic food web interactions. ?? 2005 NRC.

Fabrication of periodical surface structures by picosecond laser irradiation of carbon thin films: transformation of amorphous carbon in nanographite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, C.; Dorcioman, G.; Bita, B.; Besleaga, C.; Zgura, I.; Himcinschi, C.; Popescu, A. C.

2016-12-01

Thin films of carbon were synthesized by ns pulsed laser deposition in vacuum on silicon substrates, starting from graphite targets. Further on, the films were irradiated with a picosecond laser source emitting in visible at 532 nm. After tuning of laser parameters, we obtained a film surface covered by laser induced periodical surface structures (LIPSS). They were investigated by optical, scanning electron and atomic force microscopy. It was observed that changing the irradiation angle influences the LIPSS covered area. At high magnification it was revealed that the LIPSS pattern was quite complex, being composed of other small LIPSS islands, interconnected by bridges of nanoparticles. Raman spectra for the non-irradiated carbon films were typical for a-C type of diamond-like carbon, while the LIPSS spectra were characteristic to nano-graphite. The pristine carbon film was hydrophilic, while the LIPSS covered film surface was hydrophobic.

How Spatial Heterogeneity of Cover Affects Patterns of Shrub Encroachment into Mesic Grasslands

PubMed Central

Montané, Francesc; Casals, Pere; Dale, Mark R. T.

2011-01-01

We used a multi-method approach to analyze the spatial patterns of shrubs and cover types (plant species, litter or bare soil) in grassland-shrubland ecotones. This approach allows us to assess how fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of cover types affects the patterns of Cytisus balansae shrub encroachment into mesic mountain grasslands (Catalan Pyrenees, Spain). Spatial patterns and the spatial associations between juvenile shrubs and different cover types were assessed in mesic grasslands dominated by species with different palatabilities (palatable grass Festuca nigrescens and unpalatable grass Festuca eskia). A new index, called RISES (“Relative Index of Shrub Encroachment Susceptibility”), was proposed to calculate the chances of shrub encroachment into a given grassland, combining the magnitude of the spatial associations and the surface area for each cover type. Overall, juveniles showed positive associations with palatable F. nigrescens and negative associations with unpalatable F. eskia, although these associations shifted with shrub development stage. In F. eskia grasslands, bare soil showed a low scale of pattern and positive associations with juveniles. Although the highest RISES values were found in F. nigrescens plots, the number of juvenile Cytisus was similar in both types of grasslands. However, F. nigrescens grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in early development stage (i.e. height<10 cm) whereas F. eskia grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in late development stages (i.e. height>30 cm). We concluded that in F. eskia grasslands, where establishment may be constrained by the dominant cover type, the low scale of pattern on bare soil may result in higher chances of shrub establishment and survival. In contrast, although grasslands dominated by the palatable F. nigrescens may be more susceptible to shrub establishment; current grazing rates may reduce juvenile survival. PMID:22174858

350 Year Cloud Reconstruction Deduced from Northeast Caribbean Coral Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, A.; Sammarco, P. W.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Jury, M.; Zanchettin, D.

2014-12-01

Clouds are a major factor influencing the global climate and its response to external forcing through their implications for the global hydrological cycle, and hence for the planetary radiative budget. Clouds also contribute to regional climates and their variability through, e.g., the changes they induce in regional precipitation patterns. There have been very few studies of decadal and longer-term changes in cloud cover in the tropics and sub-tropics, both over land and the ocean. In the tropics, there is great uncertainty regarding how global warming will affect cloud cover. Observational satellite data are too short to unambiguously discern any temporal trends in cloud cover. Corals generally live in well-mixed coastal regions and can often record environmental conditions of large areas of the upper ocean. This is particularly the case at low latitudes. Scleractinian corals are sessile, epibenthic fauna, and the type of environmental information recorded at the location where the coral has been living is dependent upon the species of coral considered and proxy index of interest. Skeletons of scleractinian corals are considered to provide among the best records of high-resolution (sub-annual) environmental variability in the tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Zooxanthellate hermatypic corals in tropical and sub-tropical seas precipitate CaCO3 skeletons as they grow. This growth is made possible through the manufacture of CaCO3crystals, facilitated by the zooxanthellae. During the process of crystallization, the holobiont binds carbon of different isotopes into the crystals. Stable carbon isotope concentrations vary with a variety of environmental conditions. In the Caribbean, d13C in corals of the species Montastraea faveolata can be used as a proxy for changes in cloud cover. In this contribution, we will demonstrate that the stable isotope 13C varies concomitantly with cloud cover for the northeastern Caribbean region. Using this proxy we have been able to reconstruct cloud cover conditions back to the year 1760 and thus determine historical cloud cover prior to the recent use of instrumental records. We will also discuss how our coral proxy record of cloud cover compares to paleo-climate model runs for the same time period.

Neighborhood Landscape Spatial Patterns and Land Surface Temperature: An Empirical Study on Single-Family Residential Areas in Austin, Texas.

PubMed

Kim, Jun-Hyun; Gu, Donghwan; Sohn, Wonmin; Kil, Sung-Ho; Kim, Hwanyong; Lee, Dong-Kun

2016-09-02

Rapid urbanization has accelerated land use and land cover changes, and generated the urban heat island effect (UHI). Previous studies have reported positive effects of neighborhood landscapes on mitigating urban surface temperatures. However, the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on enhancing cooling effects has not yet been fully investigated. The main objective of this study was to assess the relationships between neighborhood landscape spatial patterns and land surface temperatures (LST) by using multi-regression models considering spatial autocorrelation issues. To measure the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on LST, this study analyzed neighborhood environments of 15,862 single-family houses in Austin, Texas, USA. Using aerial photos, geographic information systems (GIS), and remote sensing, FRAGSTATS was employed to calculate values of several landscape indices used to measure neighborhood landscape spatial patterns. After controlling for the spatial autocorrelation effect, results showed that larger and better-connected landscape spatial patterns were positively correlated with lower LST values in neighborhoods, while more fragmented and isolated neighborhood landscape patterns were negatively related to the reduction of LST.

Neighborhood Landscape Spatial Patterns and Land Surface Temperature: An Empirical Study on Single-Family Residential Areas in Austin, Texas

PubMed Central

Kim, Jun-Hyun; Gu, Donghwan; Sohn, Wonmin; Kil, Sung-Ho; Kim, Hwanyong; Lee, Dong-Kun

2016-01-01

Rapid urbanization has accelerated land use and land cover changes, and generated the urban heat island effect (UHI). Previous studies have reported positive effects of neighborhood landscapes on mitigating urban surface temperatures. However, the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on enhancing cooling effects has not yet been fully investigated. The main objective of this study was to assess the relationships between neighborhood landscape spatial patterns and land surface temperatures (LST) by using multi-regression models considering spatial autocorrelation issues. To measure the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on LST, this study analyzed neighborhood environments of 15,862 single-family houses in Austin, Texas, USA. Using aerial photos, geographic information systems (GIS), and remote sensing, FRAGSTATS was employed to calculate values of several landscape indices used to measure neighborhood landscape spatial patterns. After controlling for the spatial autocorrelation effect, results showed that larger and better-connected landscape spatial patterns were positively correlated with lower LST values in neighborhoods, while more fragmented and isolated neighborhood landscape patterns were negatively related to the reduction of LST. PMID:27598186

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, S.J.; Bisland, C.

2004-01-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

PubMed

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Strong and nonlinear effects of fragmentation on ecosystem service provision at multiple scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Matthew G. E.; Bennett, Elena M.; Gonzalez, Andrew

2015-09-01

Human actions, such as converting natural land cover to agricultural or urban land, result in the loss and fragmentation of natural habitat, with important consequences for the provision of ecosystem services. Such habitat loss is especially important for services that are supplied by fragments of natural land cover and that depend on flows of organisms, matter, or people across the landscape to produce benefits, such as pollination, pest regulation, recreation and cultural services. However, our quantitative knowledge about precisely how different patterns of landscape fragmentation might affect the provision of these types of services is limited. We used a simple, spatially explicit model to evaluate the potential impact of natural land cover loss and fragmentation on the provision of hypothetical ecosystem services. Based on current literature, we assumed that fragments of natural land cover provide ecosystem services to the area surrounding them in a distance-dependent manner such that ecosystem service flow depended on proximity to fragments. We modeled seven different patterns of natural land cover loss across landscapes that varied in the overall level of landscape fragmentation. Our model predicts that natural land cover loss will have strong and unimodal effects on ecosystem service provision, with clear thresholds indicating rapid loss of service provision beyond critical levels of natural land cover loss. It also predicts the presence of a tradeoff between maximizing ecosystem service provision and conserving natural land cover, and a mismatch between ecosystem service provision at landscape versus finer spatial scales. Importantly, the pattern of landscape fragmentation mitigated or intensified these tradeoffs and mismatches. Our model suggests that managing patterns of natural land cover loss and fragmentation could help influence the provision of multiple ecosystem services and manage tradeoffs and synergies between services across different human-dominated landscapes.

[Effects of sub-watershed landscape patterns at the upper reaches of Minjiang River on soil erosion].

PubMed

Yang, Meng; Li, Xiu-zhen; Yang, Zhao-ping; Hu, Yuan-man; Wen, Qing-chun

2007-11-01

Based on GIS, the spatial distribution of soil loss and sediment yield in Heishui and Zhenjiangguan sub-watersheds at the upper reaches of Minjiang River was simulated by using sediment delivery-distribution (SEDD) model, and the effects of land use/cover types on soil erosion and sediment yield were discussed, based on the simulated results and related land use maps. A landscape index named location-weighted landscape contrast index (LCI) was calculated to evaluate the effects of landscape components' spatial distribution, weight, and structure of land use/cover on soil erosion. The results showed the soil erosion modulus varied with land use pattern, and decreased in the order of bare rock > urban/village > rangeland > farmland > shrub > forest. There were no significant differences in sediment yield modules among different land use/covers. In the two sub-watersheds, the spatial distribution of land use/covers on slope tended to decrease the final sediment load at watershed outlet, hut as related to relative elevation, relative distance, and flow length, the spatial distribution tended to increase sediment yield. The two sub-watersheds had different advantages as related to landscape components' spatial distribution, but, when the land use/cover weight was considered, the advantages of Zhenjiangguan sub-watershed increased. If the land use/cover structure was considered in addition, the landscape pattern of Zhenjiangguan subwatershed was better. Therefore, only the three elements, i.e., landscape components' spatial distribution, land use/cover weight, and land use/cover structure, were considered comprehensively, can we get an overall evaluation on the effects of landscape pattern on soil erosion. The calculation of LCI related to slope suggested that this index couldn' t accurately reflect the effects of land use/cover weight and structure on soil erosion, and thus, needed to be modified.

Assessment of nasal spray deposition pattern in a silicone human nose model using a color-based method.

PubMed

Kundoor, Vipra; Dalby, Richard N

2010-01-01

To develop a simple and inexpensive method to visualize and quantify droplet deposition patterns. Deposition pattern was determined by uniformly coating the nose model with Sar-Gel (a paste that changes from white to purple on contact with water) and subsequently discharging sprays into the nose model. The color change was captured using a digital camera and analyzed using Adobe Photoshop. Several tests were conducted to validate the method. Deposition patterns of different nasal sprays (Ayr, Afrin, and Zicam) and different nasal drug delivery devices (Afrin nasal spray and PARI Sinustar nasal nebulizer) were compared. We also used the method to evaluate the effect of inhaled flow rate on nasal spray deposition. There was a significant difference in the deposition area for Ayr, Afrin, and Zicam. The deposition areas of Afrin nasal spray and PARI Sinustar nasal nebulizer (2 min and 5 min) were significantly different. Inhaled flow rate did not have a significant effect on the deposition pattern. Lower viscosity formulations (Ayr, Afrin) provided greater coverage than the higher viscosity formulation (Zicam). The nebulizer covered a greater surface area than the spray pump we evaluated. Aerosol deposition in the nose model was not affected by air flow conditions.

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

PubMed

Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2018-05-01

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ice-cover is the principal driver of ecological change in High Arctic lakes and ponds.

PubMed

Griffiths, Katherine; Michelutti, Neal; Sugar, Madeline; Douglas, Marianne S V; Smol, John P

2017-01-01

Recent climate change has been especially pronounced in the High Arctic, however, the responses of aquatic biota, such as diatoms, can be modified by site-specific environmental characteristics. To assess if climate-mediated ice cover changes affect the diatom response to climate, we used paleolimnological techniques to examine shifts in diatom assemblages from ten High Arctic lakes and ponds from Ellesmere Island and nearby Pim Island (Nunavut, Canada). The sites were divided a priori into four groups ("warm", "cool", "cold", and "oasis") based on local elevation and microclimatic differences that result in differing lengths of the ice-free season, as well as about three decades of personal observations. We characterized the species changes as a shift from Condition 1 (i.e. a generally low diversity, predominantly epipelic and epilithic diatom assemblage) to Condition 2 (i.e. a typically more diverse and ecologically complex assemblage with an increasing proportion of epiphytic species). This shift from Condition 1 to Condition 2 was a consistent pattern recorded across the sites that experienced a change in ice cover with warming. The "warm" sites are amongst the first to lose their ice covers in summer and recorded the earliest and highest magnitude changes. The "cool" sites also exhibited a shift from Condition 1 to Condition 2, but, as predicted, the timing of the response lagged the "warm" sites. Meanwhile some of the "cold" sites, which until recently still retained an ice raft in summer, only exhibited this shift in the upper-most sediments. The warmer "oasis" ponds likely supported aquatic vegetation throughout their records. Consequently, the diatoms of the "oasis" sites were characterized as high-diversity, Condition 2 assemblages throughout the record. Our results support the hypothesis that the length of the ice-free season is the principal driver of diatom assemblage responses to climate in the High Arctic, largely driven by the establishment of new aquatic habitats, resulting in increased diversity and the emergence of novel growth forms and epiphytic species.

Are different facets of plant diversity well protected against climate and land cover changes? A test study in the French Alps

PubMed Central

Thuiller, Wilfried; Guéguen, Maya; Georges, Damien; Bonet, Richard; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Garraud, Luc; Renaud, Julien; Roquet, Cristina; Van Es, Jérémie; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Lavergne, Sébastien

2014-01-01

Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions and diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although the need for a multifaceted view of diversity based on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there are no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used a range of species distribution models in an ensemble-forecasting framework together with regional climate and land cover projections by 2080 to analyze the potential threat for more than 2,500 plant species at high resolution (2.5 km × 2.5 km) in the French Alps. We also decomposed taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity facets into α and β components and analyzed their expected changes by 2080. Overall, plant species threats from climate and land cover changes in the French Alps were expected to vary depending on the species’ preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, and conservation status. Indeed, rare species and species of conservation concern were the ones projected to experience less severe change, and also the ones being the most efficiently preserved by the current network of protected areas. Conversely, the three facets of plant diversity were also projected to experience drastic spatial re-shuffling by 2080. In general, the mean α-diversity of the three facets was projected to increase to the detriment of regional β-diversity, although the latter was projected to remain high at the montane-alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due to a high-altitude distribution, the current protection network is efficient for rare species, and species predicted to migrate upward. Although our modeling framework may not capture all possible mechanisms of species range shifts, our work illustrates that a comprehensive risk assessment on an entire floristic region combined with functional and phylogenetic information can help delimitate future scenarios of biodiversity and better design its protection. PMID:25722539

User-inspired Research Quantifies How Floodplain Restoration Paired With Cover Crops Reduces Nutrient Export From an Agricultural Catchment Translating to Conservation Success in the Midwestern Cornbelt.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tank, J. L.; Hanrahan, B.; Christopher, S. F.; Mahl, U. H.; Royer, T. V.

2017-12-01

The Midwestern US has undergone extensive land use change as forest, wetlands, and prairies have been converted to agroecosystems. Today, excess fertilizer nutrients from farm fields enter agricultural streams, which degrades both local and downstream water quality. We are quantifying the nutrient reduction benefits of two conservation practices implemented at the catchment scale. In partnership with The Nature Conservancy, in a small Indiana catchment, we have quantified how 600m of floodplain restoration (i.e., a two-stage ditch) increased nitrate-N removal via denitrification and reduced sediment export, but impacts on stream nutrient concentrations were negligible due to very high catchment loading relative to the short implementation reach. Requests from state and federal partners led to development and parameterization of a new two-stage ditch module in the SWAT model to determine the potential catchment-scale benefits when implementation lengths were extended. More recently, in partnership with state SWCD managers, we have added a landscape practice to quantify how winter cover crops reduce nutrient loss from fields, sampling year-round nutrient fluxes from multiple subsurface tile drains and longitudinally along the stream channel. Nitrate-N and dissolved P fluxes were significantly lower in tiles draining fields with cover crops compared to those without. At the urging of farmers and federal NRCS partners, we also linked tile drain nutrient reductions to changes in soil chemistry. Both soil nitrate-N and dissolved P were lower in cover cropped fields, and we found significant correlations between soil and tile drain nutrients, which may encourage future adoption of the conservation practice as soil health benefits appeal to farmers. As biogeochemists, this research has provided valuable insights on how floodplains and land cover change can alter patterns of catchment-scale nutrient export. The translation of successful soil and water quality outcomes through this significant regional demonstration project make it a potentially powerful agent of change for advancing conservation success.

Geographic applications of ERTS-1 imagery to landscape change. [Mississippi River and Great Smoky Mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rehder, J. B. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 has proven to be an effective earth-orbiting monitor of landscape change. Its regional coverage for large areal monitoring has been effective for the detection and mapping of agricultural plowing regions, for general forest cover mapping, for flood mapping, for strip mine mapping, and for short-lived precipitation mapping patterns. Paramount to the entire study has been the temporal coverage provided by ERTS. Without the cyclic coverage on an 18 day basis, temporal coverage would have been inadequate for the detection and mapping of strip mining landscape change, the analysis of agricultural landscape change based on plowing patterns, the analysis of urban-suburban growth changes, and the mapping of the Mississippi River floods. Cost benefits from ERTS are unquestionably superior to aircraft systems in regard to large regional coverage and cyclic temporal parameters. For the analysis of landscape change in large regions such as statewide areas or even areas of 10,000 square miles, ERTS is of cost benefit consideration. Not only does the cost of imagery favor ERTS but the reduction of man-hours using ERTS has been in the magnitude of 1:10.

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Research on Adolescence in the Twenty-First Century

PubMed Central

Crosnoe, Robert; Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick

2017-01-01

Recent methodological advances have allowed empirical research on adolescence to do better justice to theoretical models. Organized by a life course framework, this review covers the state of contemporary research on adolescents' physical, psychological, interpersonal, and institutional pathways; how these pathways connect within primary ecological contexts; and how they relate to broader patterns of societal stratification and historical change. Looking forward, it also emphasizes three future challenges/opportunities, including efforts to illuminate biosocial processes, link adolescence to other life stages, and account for the influence of major social changes (e.g., the new media). PMID:29167597

Sponge epibionts on ecosystem-engineering ascidians: The case of Microcosmus sabatieri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voultsiadou, Eleni; Kyrodimou, Marianthi; Antoniadou, Chryssanthi; Vafidis, Dimitris

2010-03-01

The study of epibionts on habitat engineering ascidians is of increasing interest because changes in the population structure of the latter may affect associated communities, especially in the case of commercially exploited species. The solitary ascidian Microcosmus sabatieri lives on rocky cliffs in the Eastern Mediterranean and is harvested in certain Aegean areas. Its hard, wrinkled tunic is usually fouled by various epibionts both sessile and motile. Sponges are an important component of this complex and their biomass may be higher than that of the ascidian itself, strongly affecting diversity and abundance of the motile epifauna. The aim of this study was to examine in detail the structure of the epibiotic sponge assemblage on ascidians collected from their main fishing grounds in the South Aegean Sea. A rich (41 species) and taxonomically diverse sponge assemblage was found, while only eight species contributed 80% of the total sponge cover. Most of the epibiotic sponges commonly grow on the surrounding sublittoral cliffs. The encrusting sponge growth form prevailed in cover of the ascidian tunic, while two massive species dominated in terms of frequency of appearance and abundance. Ascidian dimensions, weight and volume were significantly correlated with sponge diversity, abundance and cover area, thus structuring the epibiotic sponge assemblage. Spatial patterns in sponge cover were not clear, but a general declining NW to SE trend in sponge richness, abundance and cover appeared in accordance with previous records. Sponge distribution on the ascidian tunic presented a clear pattern related with characteristic features of the ascidian: the posterior zone supported the richest and most expansive sponge fauna. The ecosystem-engineering process performed by the ascidian is enhanced by the diverse epibiotic sponge assemblage, thus further increasing habitat complexity in this space-limited, temperate, sublittoral, rocky environment.

Environmental Controls on Multi-Scale Soil Nutrient Variability in the Tropics: the Importance of Land-Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, K. W.; Kyriakidis, P. C.; Chadwick, O. A.; Matricardi, E.; Soares, J. V.; Roberts, D. A.

2003-12-01

The natural controls on soil variability and the spatial scales at which correlation exists among soil and environmental variables are critical information for evaluating the effects of deforestation. We detect different spatial scales of variability in soil nutrient levels over a large region (hundreds of thousands of km2) in the Amazon, analyze correlations among soil properties at these different scales, and evaluate scale-specific relationships among soil properties and the factors potentially driving soil development. Statistical relationships among physical drivers of soil formation, namely geology, precipitation, terrain attributes, classified soil types, and land cover derived from remote sensing, were included to determine which factors are related to soil biogeochemistry at each spatial scale. Surface and subsurface soil profile data from a 3000 sample database collected in Rond“nia, Brazil, were used to investigate patterns in pH, phosphorus, nitrogen, organic carbon, effective cation exchange capacity, calcium, magnesium, potassium, aluminum, sand, and clay in this environment grading from closed canopy tropical forest to savanna. We focus on pH in this presentation for simplicity, because pH is the single most important soil characteristic for determining the chemical environment of higher plants and soil microbial activity. We determined four spatial scales which characterize integrated patterns of soil chemistry: less than 3 km; 3 to 10 km; 10 to 68 km; and from 68 to 550 km (extent of study area). Although the finest observable scale was fixed by the field sampling density, the coarser scales were determined from relationships in the data through coregionalization modeling, rather than being imposed by the researcher. Processes which affect soils over short distances, such as land cover and terrain attributes, were good predictors of fine scale spatial components of nutrients; processes which affect soils over very large distances, such as precipitation and geology, were better predictors at coarse spatial scales. However, this result may be affected by the resolution of the available predictor maps. Land-cover change exerted a strong influence on soil chemistry at fine spatial scales, and had progressively less of an effect at coarser scales. It is important to note that land cover, and interactions among land cover and the other predictors, continued to be a significant predictor of soil chemistry at every spatial scale up to hundreds of thousands of kilometers.

A process-based investigation into the impact of the Congo basin deforestation on surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Jean P.; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Bouka-Biona, Clobite; Sanda, I. Seidou

2015-06-01

The sensitivity of climate to the loss of the Congo basin rainforest through changes in land cover properties is examined using a regional climate model. The complete removal of the Congo basin rainforest results in a dipole rainfall anomaly pattern, characterized by a decrease (˜-42%) in rainfall over the western Congo and an increase (˜10%) in the basin's eastern part. Three further experiments systematically examine the individual response to the changes in albedo, surface roughness, and evapotranspiration efficiency that accompany deforestation. The increased albedo (˜) caused by the Congo basin rainforest clearance results in cooler and drier climate conditions over the entire basin. The drying is accompanied with a reduction in available surface energy. Reducing evapotranspiration efficiency or roughness length produces similar positive air temperature anomaly patterns. The decreased evapotranspiration efficiency leads to a dipole response in rainfall, similar to that resulting from a reduced surface roughness following Congo basin rainforest clearance. This precipitation anomaly pattern is strongly linked to the change in low-level water vapor transport, the influence of the Rift valley highlands, and the spatial pattern of water recycling activity. The climate responds linearly to the separate albedo, surface roughness, and evapotranspiration efficiency changes, which can be summed to produce a close approximation to the impact of the full deforestation experiment. It is suggested that the widely contrasting climate responses to deforestation in the literature could be partly due to the relative magnitude of change of the radiative and nonradiative parameterizations in their respective land surface schemes.

Elkhorn Slough: Detecting Eutrophication through Geospatial Modeling Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraballo Álvarez, I. O.; Childs, A.; Jurich, K.

2016-12-01

Elkhorn Slough in Monterey, California, has experienced substantial nutrient loading and eutrophication over the past 21 years as a result of fertilizer-rich runoff from nearby agricultural fields. This study seeks to identify and track spatial patterns of eutrophication hotspots and the correlation to land use changes, possible nutrient sources, and general climatic trends using remotely sensed and in situ data. Threats of rising sea level, subsiding marshes, and increased eutrophication hotspots demonstrate the necessity to analyze the effects of increasing nutrient loads, relative sea level changes, and sedimentation within Elkhorn Slough. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model integrates specified inputs to assess nutrient and sediment loading and their sources. TerrSet's Land Change Modeler forecasts the future potential of land change transitions for various land cover classes around the slough as a result of nutrient loading, eutrophication, and increased sedimentation. TerrSet's Earth Trends Modeler provides a comprehensive analysis of image time series to rapidly assess long term eutrophication trends and detect spatial patterns of known hotspots. Results from this study will inform future coastal management practices and provide greater spatial and temporal insight into Elkhorn Slough eutrophication dynamics.

Effects of land-use change on community composition of tropical amphibians and reptiles in Sulawesi, Indonesia.

PubMed

Wanger, Thomas C; Iskandar, Djoko T; Motzke, Iris; Brook, Barry W; Sodhi, Navjot S; Clough, Yann; Tscharntke, Teja

2010-06-01

Little is known about the effects of anthropogenic land-use change on the amphibians and reptiles of the biodiverse tropical forests of Southeast Asia. We studied a land-use modification gradient stretching from primary forest, secondary forest, natural-shade cacao agroforest, planted-shade cacao agroforest to open areas in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We determined species richness, abundance, turnover, and community composition in all habitat types and related these to environmental correlates, such as canopy heterogeneity and thickness of leaf litter. Amphibian species richness decreased systematically along the land-use modification gradient, but reptile richness and abundance peaked in natural-shade cacao agroforests. Species richness and abundance patterns across the disturbance gradient were best explained by canopy cover and leaf-litter thickness in amphibians and by canopy heterogeneity and cover in reptiles. Amphibians were more severely affected by forest disturbance in Sulawesi than reptiles. Heterogeneous canopy cover and thick leaf litter should be maintained in cacao plantations to facilitate the conservation value for both groups. For long-term and sustainable use of plantations, pruned shade trees should be permanently kept to allow rejuvenation of cacao and, thus, to prevent repeated forest encroachment.

Environmental change pattern in central Japan as revealed by LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maruyasu, T. (Principal Investigator); Tsuchiya, K.; Ochiai, H.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A patched cirrus reported by weather stations was hardly recognizable by the eye in LANDSAT MSS data of a three year time lapse. The cloud cover affected radiance values significantly in band 4, while its effect was minimal in bands 6 and 7 (near infrared spectra). The cross correlation coefficient analysis between the two images indicated that the highest value obtained in central Japan was 0.963 for the area where little change occurred in land use over the three period. An analysis of land use in Nagoya showed little change in the metropolitan area while a fairly large change occurred in the northern periphery of the city where large scale housing projects are located.

Spatial variability in patterns of glacier change across the Manaslu region, Central Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robson, Benjamin A.; Nuth, Christopher; Nielsen, Pål R.; Girod, Luc; Hendrickx, Marijn; Dahl, Svein Olaf

2018-02-01

This study assesses changes in glacier area, velocity and geodetic mass balance for the glaciers in the Manaslu region of Nepal, a previously undocumented region of the Himalayas. We studied changes between 1970 (for select glaciers), 2000, 2005 and 2013 using freely available Landsat satellite imagery, the SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and a DEM based on Worldview imagery. Our results show a complex pattern of mass changes across the region, with glaciers lowering on average by -0.25 ± 0.08 m a-1 between 2000 and 2013 which equates to a negative geodetic mass balance of -0.21 ± 0.16 m w.e.a-1. Over approximately the same time period (1999 to 2013) the glaciers underwent a -16.0% decrease in mean surface velocity over their debris-covered tongues as well as a reduction in glacier area of -8.2%. The rates of glacier change appear to vary between the different time periods, with glacier losses increasing in most cases. The glaciers on Manaslu itself underwent a change in surface elevation of -0.46 ± 0.03 m a-1 between 1970 and 2000 and -0.99 ± 0.08 m a-1 between 2000 and 2013. Rates of glacier area shrinkage for the same glaciers increased from -0.36 km2 a-1 between 1970 and 2001 to -2.28 km2 a-1 between 2005 and 2013. Glacier change varies across the region and seems to relate to a combination of glacier hypsometry, glacier elevation range and the presence and distribution of supraglacial debris. Lower-elevation, debris-free glaciers with bottom-heavy hypsometries are losing most mass. As the glaciers in the Manaslu region continue to stagnate, an accumulation and thickening of the debris-cover is likely, thereby insulating the glacier and further complicating future glacier responses to climate.

a Landsat Time-Series Stacks Model for Detection of Cropland Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; Chen, J.; Zhang, J.

2017-09-01

Global, timely, accurate and cost-effective cropland monitoring with a fine spatial resolution will dramatically improve our understanding of the effects of agriculture on greenhouse gases emissions, food safety, and human health. Time-series remote sensing imagery have been shown particularly potential to describe land cover dynamics. The traditional change detection techniques are often not capable of detecting land cover changes within time series that are severely influenced by seasonal difference, which are more likely to generate pseuso changes. Here,we introduced and tested LTSM ( Landsat time-series stacks model), an improved Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) proposed previously approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change using a dense Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method is expected to eliminate pseudo changes caused by phenology driven by seasonal patterns. The main idea of the method is that using all available Landsat 8 images within a year, LTSM consisting of two term harmonic function are estimated iteratively for each pixel in each spectral band .LTSM can defines change area by differencing the predicted and observed Landsat images. The LTSM approach was compared with change vector analysis (CVA) method. The results indicated that the LTSM method correctly detected the "true change" without overestimating the "false" one, while CVA pointed out "true change" pixels with a large number of "false changes". The detection of change areas achieved an overall accuracy of 92.37 %, with a kappa coefficient of 0.676.

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover

PubMed Central

Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Oglesby, Robert; Pathak, Amey; Chandrasekharan, Anita; Ramsankaran, RAAJ

2016-01-01

Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is traditionally linked with large-scale perturbations and circulations. However, the impacts of local changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on ISMR have yet to be explored. Here, we analyzed this topic using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data for the years 2000–2010 as a boundary condition and with LULC data from 1987 and 2005. The differences in LULC between 1987 and 2005 showed deforestation with conversion of forest land to crop land, though the magnitude of such conversion is uncertain because of the coarse resolution of satellite images and use of differential sources and methods for data extraction. We performed a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of large-scale deforestation in India on monsoon precipitation and found such impacts are similar to the observed changes in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude. We found that deforestation results in weakening of the ISMR because of the decrease in evapotranspiration and subsequent decrease in the recycled component of precipitation. PMID:27553384

The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes.

PubMed

Findell, Kirsten L; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John P; Lintner, Benjamin R; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph A; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-10-20

Land surface processes modulate the severity of heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. However, models show contrasting effects of land surface changes on extreme temperatures. Here, we use an earth system model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to investigate regional impacts of land use and land cover change on combined extremes of temperature and humidity, namely aridity and moist enthalpy, quantities central to human physiological experience of near-surface climate. The model's near-surface temperature response to deforestation is consistent with recent observations, and conversion of mid-latitude natural forests to cropland and pastures is accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of hot-dry summers from once-in-a-decade to every 2-3 years. In the tropics, long time-scale oceanic variability precludes determination of how much of a small, but significant, increase in moist enthalpy throughout the year stems from the model's novel representation of historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, and regrowth of secondary vegetation and how much is forced by internal variability within the tropical oceans.

Soil Landscape Pattern Changes in Response to Rural Anthropogenic Activity across Tiaoxi Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Xiao, Rui; Jiang, Diwei; Christakos, George; Fei, Xufeng; Wu, Jiaping

2016-01-01

Soil sealing (loss of soil resources due to extensive land covering for the purpose of house building, road construction etc.) and subsequent soil landscape pattern changes constitute typical environmental problems in many places worldwide. Previous studies concentrated on soil sealing in urbanized regions, whereas rural areas have not been given sufficient attention. Accordingly, this paper studies soil landscape pattern dynamics (i.e., landscape pattern changes in response to rural anthropogenic activities) in the Tiaoxi watershed (Zhejiang province, eastern China), in which surface sealing is by far the predominant component of human forcing with respect to environmental change. A novel approach of quantifying the impacts of rural anthropogenic activities on soil resources is presented. Specifically, quantitative relationships were derived between five soil landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, shape index, Shannon’s diversity index and aggregation index) and three rural anthropogenic activity indicators (anthropogenic activity intensity, distance to towns, and distance to roads) at two landscape block scales (3 and 5 km) between 1985 and 2010. The results showed that the Tiaoxi watershed experienced extensive rural settlement expansion and high rates of soil sealing. Soil landscapes became more fragmented, more irregular, more isolated, and less diverse. Relationships between soil landscape pattern changes and rural anthropogenic activities differed with the scale (spatial and temporal) and variable considered. In particular, the anthropogenic activity intensity was found to be the most important indicator explaining social development intensity, whereas the other two proximity indicators had a significant impact at certain temporal interval. In combination with scale effects, spatial dependency (correlation) was shown to play a key role that should be carefully taken into consideration in any relevant environmental study. Overall, the findings of this work suggest that soil sealing can be a critical human forcing issue with considerable consequences deserving serious attention by the experts, the public and the government alike. PMID:27832167

Soil Landscape Pattern Changes in Response to Rural Anthropogenic Activity across Tiaoxi Watershed, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Rui; Jiang, Diwei; Christakos, George; Fei, Xufeng; Wu, Jiaping

2016-01-01

Soil sealing (loss of soil resources due to extensive land covering for the purpose of house building, road construction etc.) and subsequent soil landscape pattern changes constitute typical environmental problems in many places worldwide. Previous studies concentrated on soil sealing in urbanized regions, whereas rural areas have not been given sufficient attention. Accordingly, this paper studies soil landscape pattern dynamics (i.e., landscape pattern changes in response to rural anthropogenic activities) in the Tiaoxi watershed (Zhejiang province, eastern China), in which surface sealing is by far the predominant component of human forcing with respect to environmental change. A novel approach of quantifying the impacts of rural anthropogenic activities on soil resources is presented. Specifically, quantitative relationships were derived between five soil landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, shape index, Shannon's diversity index and aggregation index) and three rural anthropogenic activity indicators (anthropogenic activity intensity, distance to towns, and distance to roads) at two landscape block scales (3 and 5 km) between 1985 and 2010. The results showed that the Tiaoxi watershed experienced extensive rural settlement expansion and high rates of soil sealing. Soil landscapes became more fragmented, more irregular, more isolated, and less diverse. Relationships between soil landscape pattern changes and rural anthropogenic activities differed with the scale (spatial and temporal) and variable considered. In particular, the anthropogenic activity intensity was found to be the most important indicator explaining social development intensity, whereas the other two proximity indicators had a significant impact at certain temporal interval. In combination with scale effects, spatial dependency (correlation) was shown to play a key role that should be carefully taken into consideration in any relevant environmental study. Overall, the findings of this work suggest that soil sealing can be a critical human forcing issue with considerable consequences deserving serious attention by the experts, the public and the government alike.

Implications of scale-independent habitat specialization on persistence of a rare small mammal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cleaver, Michael; Klinger, Robert C.; Anderson, Steven T.; Maier, Paul A.; Clark, Jonathan

2015-01-01

We assessed the habitat use patterns of the Amargosa vole Microtus californicus scirpensis , an endangered rodent endemic to wetland vegetation along a 3.5 km stretch of the Amargosa River in the Mojave Desert, USA. Our goals were to: (1) quantify the vole’s abundance, occupancy rates and habitat selection patterns along gradients of vegetation cover and spatial scale; (2) identify the processes that likely had the greatest influence on its habitat selection patterns. We trapped voles monthly in six 1 ha grids from January to May 2012 and measured habitat structure at subgrid (View the MathML source225m2) and trap (View the MathML source1m2) scales in winter and spring seasons. Regardless of scale, analyses of density, occupancy and vegetation structure consistently indicated that voles occurred in patches of bulrush (Schoenoplectus americanus ; Cyperaceae) where cover >50%. The majority of evidence indicates the vole's habitat selectivity is likely driven by bulrush providing protection from intense predation. However, a combination of selective habitat use and limited movement resulted in a high proportion of apparently suitable bulrush patches being unoccupied. This suggests the Amargosa vole's habitat selection behavior confers individual benefits but may not allow the overall population to persist in a changing environment.

Decreasing seagrass density negatively influences associated fauna

PubMed Central

McCloskey, Rosemary M.

2015-01-01

Seagrass meadows globally are disappearing at a rapid rate with physical disturbances being one of the major drivers of this habitat loss. Disturbance of seagrass can lead to fragmentation, a reduction in shoot density, canopy height and coverage, and potentially permanent loss of habitat. Despite being such a widespread issue, knowledge of how such small scale change affects the spatial distribution and abundances of motile fauna remains limited. The present study investigated fish and macro faunal community response patterns to a range of habitat variables (shoot length, cover and density), including individual species habitat preferences within a disturbed and patchy intertidal seagrass meadow. Multivariate analysis showed a measurable effect of variable seagrass cover on the abundance and distribution of the fauna, with species specific preferences to both high and low seagrass cover seagrass. The faunal community composition varied significantly with increasing/decreasing cover. The faunal species composition of low cover seagrass was more similar to sandy control plots than to higher cover seagrass. Shannon Wiener Diversity (H′) and species richness was significantly higher in high cover seagrass than in low cover seagrass, indicating increasing habitat value as density increases. The results of this study underline how the impacts of small scale disturbances from factors such as anchor damage, boat moorings and intertidal vehicle use on seagrass meadows that reduce shoot density and cover can impact upon associated fauna. These impacts have negative consequences for the delivery of ecosystem services such as the provision of nursery habitat. PMID:26137432

Laser-induced erasable patterns in a N* liquid crystal on an iron doped lithium niobate surface.

PubMed

Habibpourmoghadam, Atefeh; Lucchetti, Liana; Evans, Dean R; Reshetnyak, Victor Y; Omairat, Faissal; Schafforz, Samuel L; Lorenz, Alexander

2017-10-16

A chiral nematic (N*) liquid crystal (LC) was hybridized with a z-cut iron doped lithium niobate (Fe:LN) substrate and exposed with a focused continuous wave diode laser beam. The N* LC layer was confined with a cover glass to provide a homogeneous LC layer thickness. Two distinct kinds of test cells were investigated, one with an uncoated glass covering slip and one with an indium tin oxide (ITO) coated cover glass. Photo generated electric fields (generated in the Fe:LN) resulted in a localized defect formation and textural transitions in the N* LC. Due to field confinement, the field induced responses were more localized in samples with ITO coated cover glasses. By scanning the laser beam on programmed trajectories, formation of persistent patterns could be achieved in the N* LC layer. Polarized optical microscopy of the exposed samples revealed that these patterns consisted of adjacent circular Frank-Pryce defects. Exposure with a slightly defocused laser beam could be applied selectively to erase these patterns. Thus, a promising method is reported to generate reconfigurable patterns, photonic motives, and touch sensitive devices in a hybridized N* LC with micron accuracy.

Surface Albedo Darkening from wildfires in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatebe, C. K.; Ichoku, C. M.; Poudal, R.; Roman, M. O.; Wilcox, E.

2014-01-01

Wildfires are recognized as a key physical disturbance of terrestrial ecosystems and a major source of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. They are known to produce changes in landscape patterns and lead to changes in surface albedo that can persist for long periods. Here, we estimate the darkening of surface albedo due to wildfires in different land cover ecosystems in the Northern Sub-Saharan Africa using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We determined a decrease in albedo after fires over most land cover types (e.g. woody savannas: (-0.00352 0.00003) and savannas: (- 0.003910.00003), which together accounted for >86% of the total MODIS fire count between 2003 and 2011). Grasslands had a higher value (-0.00454 0.00003) than the savannas, but accounted for only about 5% of the total fire count. A few other land cover types (e.g. Deciduous broad leaf: (0.00062 0.00015), and barren: 0.00027 0.00019), showed an increase in albedo after fires, but accounted for less than 1% of the total fires. Albedo change due to wildfires is more important during the fire season (October-February). The albedo recovery progresses rapidly during the first year after fires, where savannas show the greatest recovery (>77%) within one year, while deciduous broadleaf, permanent wetlands and barren lands show the least one-year recovery (56%). The persistence of surface albedo darkening in most land cover types is limited to about six to seven years, after which at least 98% of the burnt pixels recover to their pre-fire albedo.

Multitemporal analysis of Landsat images to detect land use land cover changes for monitoring soil sealing in the Nola area (Naples, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Giglio, Michaela; Allocca, Maria; Franci, Francesca

2016-10-01

Land Use Land Cover Changes (LULCC) data provide objective information to support environmental policy, urban planning purposes and sustainable land development. Understanding of past land use/cover practices and current landscape patterns is critical to assess the effects of LULCC on the Earth system. Within the framework of soil sealing in Italy, the present study aims to assess the LULCC of the Nola area (Naples metropolitan area, Italy), relating to a thirty year period from 1984 to 2015. The urban sprawl affects this area causing the impervious surface increase, the loss in rural areas and landscape fragmentation. Located near Vesuvio volcano and crossed by artificial filled rivers, the study area is subject to landslide, hydraulic and volcanic risks. Landsat time series has been processed by means of the supervised per-pixel classification in order to produce multitemporal Land Use Land Cover maps. Then, post-classification comparison approach has been applied to quantify the changes occurring between 1984 and 2015, also analyzing the intermediate variations in 1999, namely every fifteen years. The results confirm the urban sprawl. The increase of the built-up areas mainly causes the habitat fragmentation and the agricultural land conversion of the Nola area that is already damaged by unauthorized disposal of urban waste. Moreover, considering the local risk maps, it was verified that some of the new urban areas were built over known hazardous sites. In order to limit the soil sealing, urgent measures and sustainable urban planning are required.

Homesick: residential and care patterns in patients with severe mental illness.

PubMed

de Mooij, Liselotte D; Kikkert, Martijn; Lommerse, Nick M; Theunissen, Jan; de Koning, Mariken B; de Haan, Lieuwe; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Duurkoop, Pim W R A; Dekker, Jack J M

2016-12-03

Changes in the residential and care settings of patients with severe mental illness (SMI) are a concern because of the large variety of possible negative consequences. This study describes patterns of changes in the residential and care settings of SMI patients and explores associations between these changes, sociodemographics, and clinical characteristics. From January 2006 to January 2012, all data relating to changes in residential and/or care setting by SMI patients (N = 262) were collected from electronic case files. Data covering psychopathology, substance use, and medication adherence were assessed in 2006. There were more changes in the residential than in the care setting. In 6 years, only 22% of our sample did not move, 23% changed residence once, 19% twice, 10% three times, and 26% four or more times. Substance use predicted changes of care and/or residential setting and rehospitalisation. The severity of negative symptoms predicted rehospitalisation and duration of hospitalisation. Disorganisation symptoms predicted the duration of hospitalisation. A majority of patients with SMI changed residential and/or care settings several times in 6 years. Patients with substance use or severe negative and disorganisation symptoms may need more intensive and customised treatment. Further research is needed to investigate prevention programmes for highly-frequent movers.

Landuse/Landcover and Climate Change Interaction in the Derived Savannah Region of Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akintuyi, A. O.; Fasona, M.; Soneye, A. S. O.

2016-12-01

The interaction of landuse/Landcover (LULC) and climate change, to a large extent, involves anthropogenic activities. This study was carried out in the derived savannah of Nigeria, a delicate ecological zone where the interaction of LULC and climate change could be well appreciated. The study evaluated coupled interaction between LULC and climate change and assessed the changes in the landuse/landcover patterns for the periods 1972, 1986, 2002 and 2010, evaluated the present (1941 - 2010) and future (2011 - 2050) variability in rainfall patterns and an attempt was made to predict the interaction between LULC and climate change during future climate. The study adopted remote sensing and GIS techniques, land change modeller and multivariate statistics The results suggest that the built up area, farmland, waterbody and woodland experienced a rapid increase of about 1,134.69%, 1,202.85%, 631.51% and 188.09%, respectively, while the forest cover, degraded surfaces and grassland lost about 19.32%, 72.76% and 0.05% respectively between 1972 and 2010. Furthermore, the study predicted 40.28% and 37.84% reduction in the forested area between 1986 and 2050 and 2010 and 2050 respectively. The study concludes that rainfall will be the major driver of LULC change within the study area under a future climate.

Strong Gradients in Forest Sensitivity to Climate Change Revealed by Dynamics of Forest Fire Cycles in the Post Little Ice Age Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Girardin, Martin P.; Gauthier, Sylvie; Ols, Clémentine; Ojal, John

2017-10-01

The length of the fire cycle is a critical factor affecting the vegetation cover in boreal and temperate regions. However, its responses to climate change remain poorly understood. We reanalyzed data from earlier studies of forest age structures at the landscape level, in order to map the evolution of regional fire cycles across Eastern North American boreal and temperate forests, following the termination of the Little Ice Age (LIA). We demonstrated a well-defined spatial pattern of post-LIA changes in the length of fire cycles toward lower fire activity during the 1800s and 1900s. The western section of Eastern North America (west of 77°W) experienced a decline in fire activity as early as the first half of the 1800s. By contrast, the eastern section showed these declines as late as the early 1900s. During a regionally fire-prone period of the 1910s-1920s, forests in the western section of Eastern boreal North America burned more than forests in the eastern section. The climate appeared to dominate over vegetation composition and human impacts in shaping the geographical pattern of the post-LIA change in fire activity. Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns following the termination of the LIA, specifically changes in Arctic Oscillation and the strengthening of the Continental Polar Trough, were likely drivers of the regional fire dynamics.

Brain reorganization, not relative brain size, primarily characterizes anthropoid brain evolution.

PubMed

Smaers, J B; Soligo, C

2013-05-22

Comparative analyses of primate brain evolution have highlighted changes in size and internal organization as key factors underlying species diversity. It remains, however, unclear (i) how much variation in mosaic brain reorganization versus variation in relative brain size contributes to explaining the structural neural diversity observed across species, (ii) which mosaic changes contribute most to explaining diversity, and (iii) what the temporal origin, rates and processes are that underlie evolutionary shifts in mosaic reorganization for individual branches of the primate tree of life. We address these questions by combining novel comparative methods that allow assessing the temporal origin, rate and process of evolutionary changes on individual branches of the tree of life, with newly available data on volumes of key brain structures (prefrontal cortex, frontal motor areas and cerebrocerebellum) for a sample of 17 species (including humans). We identify patterns of mosaic change in brain evolution that mirror brain systems previously identified by electrophysiological and anatomical tract-tracing studies in non-human primates and functional connectivity MRI studies in humans. Across more than 40 Myr of anthropoid primate evolution, mosaic changes contribute more to explaining neural diversity than changes in relative brain size, and different mosaic patterns are differentially selected for when brains increase or decrease in size. We identify lineage-specific evolutionary specializations for all branches of the tree of life covered by our sample and demonstrate deep evolutionary roots for mosaic patterns associated with motor control and learning.

Brain reorganization, not relative brain size, primarily characterizes anthropoid brain evolution

PubMed Central

Smaers, J. B.; Soligo, C.

2013-01-01

Comparative analyses of primate brain evolution have highlighted changes in size and internal organization as key factors underlying species diversity. It remains, however, unclear (i) how much variation in mosaic brain reorganization versus variation in relative brain size contributes to explaining the structural neural diversity observed across species, (ii) which mosaic changes contribute most to explaining diversity, and (iii) what the temporal origin, rates and processes are that underlie evolutionary shifts in mosaic reorganization for individual branches of the primate tree of life. We address these questions by combining novel comparative methods that allow assessing the temporal origin, rate and process of evolutionary changes on individual branches of the tree of life, with newly available data on volumes of key brain structures (prefrontal cortex, frontal motor areas and cerebrocerebellum) for a sample of 17 species (including humans). We identify patterns of mosaic change in brain evolution that mirror brain systems previously identified by electrophysiological and anatomical tract-tracing studies in non-human primates and functional connectivity MRI studies in humans. Across more than 40 Myr of anthropoid primate evolution, mosaic changes contribute more to explaining neural diversity than changes in relative brain size, and different mosaic patterns are differentially selected for when brains increase or decrease in size. We identify lineage-specific evolutionary specializations for all branches of the tree of life covered by our sample and demonstrate deep evolutionary roots for mosaic patterns associated with motor control and learning. PMID:23536600

Longest time series of glacier mass changes in the Himalaya based on stereo imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolch, T.; Pieczonka, T.; Benn, D. I.

2010-12-01

Mass loss of Himalayan glaciers has wide-ranging consequences such as declining water resources, sea level rise and an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The assessment of the regional and global impact of glacier changes in the Himalaya is, however, hampered by a lack of mass balance data for most of the range. Multi-temporal digital terrain models (DTMs) allow glacier mass balance to be calculated since the availability of stereo imagery. Here we present the longest time series of mass changes in the Himalaya and show the high value of early stereo spy imagery such as Corona (years 1962 and 1970) aerial images and recent high resolution satellite data (Cartosat-1) to calculate a time series of glacier changes south of Mt. Everest, Nepal. We reveal that the glaciers are significantly losing mass with an increasing rate since at least ~1970, despite thick debris cover. The specific mass loss is 0.32 ± 0.08 m w.e. a-1, however, not higher than the global average. The spatial patterns of surface lowering can be explained by variations in debris-cover thickness, glacier velocity, and ice melt due to exposed ice cliffs and ponds.

Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Labiosa, William B.

2012-01-01

In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

How do protected landscapes associated with high biodiversity and population levels change?

PubMed Central

Echeverria, Cristian

2017-01-01

Most protected areas (PA) try to limit logging of forests by means of restrictions on access and use, especially in areas where local communities coexist with the forests and depend on resources derived from PAs. In such contexts, achieving full or effective protection of the forests is almost impossible. This fact has led to researching beyond PAs boundaries in order to examine large surrounding landscapes with multiple forms of properties and restriction on forests use. The present study assessed the change in forest cover and fragmentation between 1990 and 2014, in addition to the drivers that explain such changes in a landscape with the presence of PAs and high-density population belonging to the Chocó-Darien biodiversity hotspot. Results indicated differences in the extent and spatial patterns of change in forest cover of PAs and their surrounding landscapes. Two PAs exhibited a tendency to increase fragmentation and lose their forests in comparison with the stable protection of the forests in other PAs during this period. However, the greatest change in forest cover and fragmentation was observed in the surrounding landscapes, where the best connection to markets and transport networks were the dominating deforestation drivers. Our findings corroborated that the PAs were a shield against the deforestation of the tropical Andean forest, especially in landscapes with high-density population. However, the fragmentation of the forest cannot be avoided around the PAs limits. It is expected that, if this tendency continues in the future, the biodiversity in the Chocó-Darien hotspot will be seriously affected. PMID:28672002

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Kinetics of particle deposition at heterogeneous surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stojiljković, D. Lj.; Vrhovac, S. B.

2017-12-01

The random sequential adsorption (RSA) approach is used to analyze adsorption of spherical particles of fixed diameter d0 on nonuniform surfaces covered by square cells arranged in a square lattice pattern. To characterize such pattern two dimensionless parameters are used: the cell size α and the cell-cell separation β, measured in terms of the particle diameter d0. Adsorption is assumed to occur if the particle (projected) center lies within a cell area. We focus on the kinetics of deposition process in the case when no more than a single disk can be placed onto any square cell (α < 1 /√{ 2 } ≈ 0 . 707). We find that the asymptotic approach of the coverage fraction θ(t) to the jamming limit θJ is algebraic if the parameters α and β satisfy the simple condition, β + α / 2 < 1. If this condition is not satisfied, the late time kinetics of deposition process is not consistent with the power law behavior. However, if the geometry of the pattern approaches towards ;noninteracting conditions; (β > 1), when adsorption on each cell can be decoupled, approach of the coverage fraction θ(t) to θJ becomes closer to the exponential law. Consequently, changing the pattern parameters in the present model allows to interpolate the deposition kinetics between the continuum limit and the lattice-like behavior. Structural properties of the jammed-state coverings are studied in terms of the radial distribution function g(r) and spatial distribution of particles inside the cell. Various, non-trivial spatial distributions are observed depending on the geometry of the pattern.

Laser-induced superhydrophobic grid patterns on PDMS for droplet arrays formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farshchian, Bahador; Gatabi, Javad R.; Bernick, Steven M.; Park, Sooyeon; Lee, Gwan-Hyoung; Droopad, Ravindranath; Kim, Namwon

2017-02-01

We demonstrate a facile single step laser treatment process to render a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) surface superhydrophobic. By synchronizing a pulsed nanosecond laser source with a motorized stage, superhydrophobic grid patterns were written on the surface of PDMS. Hierarchical micro and nanostructures were formed in the irradiated areas while non-irradiated areas were covered by nanostructures due to deposition of ablated particles. Arrays of droplets form spontaneously on the laser-patterned PDMS with superhydrophobic grid pattern when the PDMS sample is simply immersed in and withdrawn from water due to different wetting properties of the irradiated and non-irradiated areas. The effects of withdrawal speed and pitch size of superhydrophobic grid on the size of formed droplets were investigated experimentally. The droplet size increases initially with increasing the withdrawal speed and then does not change significantly beyond certain points. Moreover, larger droplets are formed by increasing the pitch size of the superhydrophobic grid. The droplet arrays formed on the laser-patterned PDMS with wettability contrast can be used potentially for patterning of particles, chemicals, and bio-molecules and also for cell screening applications.

Identifying forest patterns from space to explore dynamics across the circumpolar boreal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montesano, P. M.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Feng, M.; Channan, S.; Sexton, J. O.; Wagner, W.; Wooten, M.; Poulter, B.; Wang, L.

2017-12-01

A variety of forest patterns are the result of interactions between broad-scale climate and local-scale site factors and history across the northernmost portion of the circumpolar boreal. Patterns of forest extent, height, and cover help describe forest structure transitions that influence future and reflect past dynamics. Coarse spaceborne observations lack structural detail at forest transitions, which inhibits understanding of these dynamics. We highlight: (1) the use of sub-meter spaceborne stereogrammetry for deriving structure estimates in boreal forests; (2) its potential to complement other spaceborne estimates of forest structure at critical scales; and (3) the potential of these sub-meter and other Landsat-derived structure estimates for improving understanding of broad-scale boreal dynamics such as carbon flux and albedo, capturing the spatial variability of the boreal-tundra biome boundary, and assessing its potential for change.

Studying the Effects of Amazonian Land Cover Change on Glacier Mass Balance in the Tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mark, B. G.; Fernandez, A.; Gabrielli, P.; Montenegro, A.; Postigo, J.; Hellstrom, R. A.

2017-12-01

Recent research has highlighted several ongoing environmental changes occurring across Tropical South America, including Andean glacier retreat, drought, as well as changes in land-use and land-cover. As the regional climate of the area is mostly characterized by land-ocean interactions, the atmospheric convection in the Amazon, and the effect of the Andes on circulation patterns, it follows that changes in one of those regions may affect the other. Most scholars who have studied the causes of tropical glaciers' fluctuations have not analyzed the linkages with changes in the Amazon with the same attention paid to the influence of Pacific sea surface temperature. Here we study the response of glacier surface mass balance in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (10°S), to a scenario where the Amazonian rainforest is replaced by savannas. We ran climatic simulations at 2-km spatial resolution utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model considering two scenarios: (a) control (CRTL), with today's rainforest extent; and (b) land cover change (LCC), where all the rainforest was replaced by savanna. WRF output was in turn ingested into a glacier energy and mass balance (GEMB) model that we validate by reconstructing both the accumulated mass balance from available observations, and the altitudinal distribution of mass balance in the region. Seasonal comparison between CRTL and LCC scenarios indicates that forest replacement by savanna results in more positive glacier mass balance. This shift to more positive mass balance contrasts with a (WRF) modeled rise in the elevation of the freezing line (0°C) between 30 to 120 m for the LCC scenario. Our results are surprising because most previous studies have shown that reducing Amazon forest cover diminishes rainfall and increases temperature, suggesting that glaciers should lose mass. We hypothesize and discuss implications of possible land-atmospheric processes that might drive this tropical glacier response to Amazonian forest change, including: the large-scale influence of Amazonian albedo change on the interaction between the Walker and Hadley cells and the effect of mountain meteorology dynamics.

Using repeat electrical resistivity surveys to assess heterogeneity in soil moisture dynamics under contrasting vegetation types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dick, Jonathan; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Bradford, John; Soulsby, Chris

2018-04-01

As the relationship between vegetation and soil moisture is complex and reciprocal, there is a need to understand how spatial patterns in soil moisture influence the distribution of vegetation, and how the structure of vegetation canopies and root networks regulates the partitioning of precipitation. Spatial patterns of soil moisture are often difficult to visualise as usually, soil moisture is measured at point scales, and often difficult to extrapolate. Here, we address the difficulties in collecting large amounts of spatial soil moisture data through a study combining plot- and transect-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys to estimate soil moisture in a 3.2 km2 upland catchment in the Scottish Highlands. The aim was to assess the spatio-temporal variability in soil moisture under Scots pine forest (Pinus sylvestris) and heather moorland shrubs (Calluna vulgaris); the two dominant vegetation types in the Scottish Highlands. The study focussed on one year of fortnightly ERT surveys. The surveyed resistivity data was inverted and Archie's law was used to calculate volumetric soil moisture by estimating parameters and comparing against field measured data. Results showed that spatial soil moisture patterns were more heterogeneous in the forest site, as were patterns of wetting and drying, which can be linked to vegetation distribution and canopy structure. The heather site showed a less heterogeneous response to wetting and drying, reflecting the more uniform vegetation cover of the shrubs. Comparing soil moisture temporal variability during growing and non-growing seasons revealed further contrasts: under the heather there was little change in soil moisture during the growing season. Greatest changes in the forest were in areas where the trees were concentrated reflecting water uptake and canopy partitioning. Such differences have implications for climate and land use changes; increased forest cover can lead to greater spatial variability, greater growing season temporal variability, and reduced levels of soil moisture, whilst projected decreasing summer precipitation may alter the feedbacks between soil moisture and vegetation water use and increase growing season soil moisture deficits.

Land use and carbon dynamics in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Young, Claudia; Werner, Jeremy M.

2013-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) plays an important role in determining the spatial distribution, magnitude, and temporal change of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. However, the impacts of LUCC are not well understood and quantified over large areas. The goal of this study was to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon dynamics in various terrestrial ecosystems in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050 using a process-based modeling system and then to investigate the impacts of LUCC. Spatial LUCC information was reconstructed and projected using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover (FORE-SCE) model according to information derived from Landsat observations and other sources. Results indicated that urban expansion (from 3.7% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2050) was expected to be the primary driver for other land cover changes in the region, leading to various declines in forest, cropland, and hay/pasture. The region was projected to be a carbon sink of 60.4 gC m−2 yr−1 on average during the study period, primarily due to the legacy impacts of large-scale conversion of cropland to forest that happened since the 1950s. Nevertheless, the regional carbon sequestration rate was expected to decline because of the slowing down of carbon accumulation in aging forests and the decline of forest area.

Deforestation and Forest Fragmentation in South Ecuador since the 1970s - Losing a Hotspot of Biodiversity.

PubMed

Tapia-Armijos, María Fernanda; Homeier, Jürgen; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Leuschner, Christoph; de la Cruz, Marcelino

2015-01-01

Deforestation and fragmentation are major components of global change; both are contributing to the rapid loss of tropical forest area with important implications for ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. The forests of South Ecuador are a biological 'hotspot' due to their high diversity and endemism levels. We examined the deforestation and fragmentation patterns in this area of high conservation value using aerial photographs and Aster satellite scenes. The registered annual deforestation rates of 0.75% (1976-1989) and 2.86% (1989-2008) for two consecutive survey periods, the decreasing mean patch size and the increasing isolation of the forest fragments show that the area is under severe threat. Approximately 46% of South Ecuador's original forest cover had been converted by 2008 into pastures and other anthropogenic land cover types. We found that deforestation is more intense at lower elevations (premontane evergreen forest and shrubland) and that the deforestation front currently moves in upslope direction. Improved awareness of the spatial extent, dynamics and patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation is urgently needed in biologically diverse areas like South Ecuador.

Productivity and phenological responses of natural vegetation to present and future inter-annual climate variability across semi-arid river basins in Chile.

PubMed

Glade, Francisco E; Miranda, Marcelo D; Meza, Francisco J; van Leeuwen, Willem J D

2016-12-01

Time series of vegetation indices and remotely sensed phenological data offer insights about the patterns in vegetation dynamics. Both are useful sources of information for analyzing and monitoring ecosystem responses to environmental variations caused by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In the semi-arid region of Chile, climate variability and recent severe droughts in addition to land-use changes pose threats to the stability of local ecosystems. Normalized difference vegetation index time series (2000-2013) data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was processed to monitor the trends and patterns of vegetation productivity and phenology observed over the last decade. An analysis of the relationship between (i) vegetation productivity and (ii) precipitation and temperature data for representative natural land-use cover classes was made. Using these data and ground measurements, productivity estimates were projected for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at two altitudinal levels. Results showed negative trends of vegetation productivity below 2000 m a.s.l. and positive trends for higher elevations. Phenology analysis suggested that mountainous ecosystems were starting their growing period earlier in the season, coinciding with a decreased productivity peak during the growing season. The coastal shrubland/grassland land cover class had a significant positive relation with rainfall and a significant negative relation with temperature, suggesting that these ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. Future productivity projections indicate that under an RCP8.5 climate change scenario, productivity could decline by 12% in the period of 2060-2100, leading to a severe vegetation degradation at lower altitudes and in drier areas.

Effects of the international soybean trade on the dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity in soybean-producing regions in China and Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viña, A.; Silva, R. F. B. D.; Yang, H.; Liu, J.

2017-12-01

The international trade of agricultural commodities, such as soybean, is driven by a series of pull and push factors linked to market demand. These in turn fluctuate based on changes in economic affluence, infrastructure development, and socioeconomic homogenization, among others, in both sending and receiving systems. While many studies have analyzed some of these push/pull factors and their environmental effects in either sending or receiving systems, few studies have assessed these effects simultaneously in both sending and receiving systems. This study evaluates the effects of the soybean trade between Brazil and China on the spatio-temporal patterns of gross primary productivity (GPP) in both sending and receiving systems. The GPP is a measure of the amount of biomass produced through photosynthesis across space and through time. This metric is directly related with the amount of carbon that is sequestered from the atmosphere, and thus is related with the impacts of land use/cover dynamics on global climate change. The spatio-temporal patterns of both GPP and land use/cover were evaluated simultaneously in two soybean-producing regions (state of Mato Grosso in Brazil, and Heilongjiang province in China) through the use of surface reflectance data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellite, combined with a production efficiency model (PEM) entirely based on remotely sensed data. Results from this analysis provide new insights on the consequences of the international trade at local/regional scales, and allow assessing how changes in market demand for agricultural commodities may generate drastic environmental effects in both sending and receiving systems, with global implications on carbon sequestration and thus on climate change.

Thirty Years of Change in Subalpine Forest Cover from Landsat Image Analysis in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher

2015-01-01

Landsat imagery was analyzed to understand changes in subalpine forest stands since the mid-1980s in the Sierra-Nevada region of California. At locations where long-term plot measurements have shown that stands are becoming denser in the number of small tree stems (compared to the early 1930s), the 30-year analysis of Landsat greenness index (NDVI) indicated that no consistent increases in canopy leaf cover have occurred at these same locations since the mid-1980s. Interannual variations in stand NDVI closely followed snow accumulation amounts recorded at nearby stations. In contrast, at eastern Sierra whitebark pine stand locations where it has been observed that widespread tree mortality has occurred, decreasing NDVI trends over the past 5-10 years were consistent with rapid loss of forest canopy cover. Landsat imagery was further analyzed to understand patterns of post-wildfire vegetation recovery, focusing on high burn severity (HBS) patches within burned areas dating from the late 1940s. Analysis of landscape metrics showed that the percentage of total HBS area comprised by the largest patch of recovered woody cover was relatively small in all fires that occurred since 1995, but increased rapidly with time since fire. Patch complexity of recovered woody cover decreased notably after more than 50 years of regrowth, but was not readily associated with time for fires that occurred since the mid 1990s. The aggregation level of patches with recovery of woody cover increased steadily with time since fire. The study approach using satellite remote sensing can be expanded to assess the consequences of stand-replacing wildfires in all forests of the region.

Long-term trends in the structure of eastern Adriatic littoral fish assemblages: Consequences for fisheries management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagličić, N.; Matić-Skoko, S.; Pallaoro, A.; Grgičević, R.; Kraljević, M.; Tutman, P.; Dragičević, B.; Dulčić, J.

2011-09-01

Long-term interannual changes in abundance, biomass, diversity and structure of littoral fish assemblages were examined between 1993 and 2009 by experimental trammel net fishing up to six times per year, within the warm period - May to September, at multiple areas along the eastern Adriatic coast with the aim of testing for the consistency of patterns of change across a large spatial scale (˜600 km). The results revealed spatially consistent increasing trends of total fish abundance and biomass growing at an average rate of 15 and 14% per year, respectively. Of the diversity indices analysed, the same pattern of variability was observed for Shannon diversity, while Pielou evenness and average taxonomic distinctness measures Δ ∗ and Δ + showed spatial variability with no obvious temporal trends. Multivariate fish assemblage structure underwent a directional change displaying a similar pattern through time for all the areas. The structural change in fish assemblages generally involved most of the species present in trammel net catches. A large pool of fish species responsible for producing the temporal pattern of assemblage change was relatively different in each of the areas reflecting a large geographic range covered by the study. An analysis of 4 fish species ( Symphodus tinca, Pagellus erythrinus, Mullus surmuletus, Scorpaena porcus) common to each of the study areas as the ones driving the temporal change indicated that there were clear increasing trends of their mean catches across the years at all the study areas. A common pattern among time trajectories across the spatial scale studied implies that the factor affecting the littoral fish assemblages is not localised but regional in nature. As an underlying factor having the potential to induce such widespread and consistent improvements in littoral fish assemblages, a more restrictive artisanal fishery management that has progressively been put in place during the study period, is suggested and discussed.

Montane-breeding bird distribution and abundance across national parks of southwestern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amundson, Courtney L.; Handel, Colleen M.; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Gill, Robert E.

2018-01-01

Between 2004 and 2008, biologists conducted an inventory of breeding birds during May–June primarily in montane areas (>100 m above sea level) in Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve (Aniakchak NMP), Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai NPP), and Lake Clark National Park and Preserve (Lake Clark NPP) in southwestern Alaska. Observers conducted 1,021 point counts along 169 transects within 63 10-km × 10-km plots that were randomly selected and stratified by ecological subsection. We created hierarchical N-mixture models to estimate detection probability and abundance for 15 species, including 12 passerines, 2 galliforms, and 1 shorebird. We first modeled detection probability relative to observer, date within season, and proportion of dense vegetation cover around the point, then modeled abundance as a function of land cover composition (proportion of seven coarse-scale land cover types) within 300 m of the survey point. Land cover relationships varied widely among species but most showed selection for low to tall shrubs (0.2–5 m tall) and an avoidance of alpine and 2 dwarf shrub–herbaceous cover types. After adjusting for species not observed, we estimated a minimum of 107 ± 9 species bred in the areas surveyed within the three parks combined. Species richness was negatively associated with elevation and associated land cover types. At comparable levels of survey effort (n = 721 birds detected), species richness was greatest in Lake Clark NPP (75 ± 12 species), lowest in Aniakchak NMP (45 ± 6 species), and intermediate at Katmai NPP (59 ± 10 species). Species richness was similar at equivalent survey effort (n = 973 birds detected) within the Lime Hills, Alaska Range, and Alaska Peninsula ecoregions (68 ± 8; 79 ± 11; 67 ± 11, respectively). Species composition was similar across all three parks and across the three major ecoregions (Alaska Range, Alaska Peninsula, Lime Hills) that encompass them. Our results provide baseline estimates of relative abundance and models of abundance and species richness relative to land cover that can be used to assess future changes in avian distribution. Additionally, these subarctic montane parks may serve as signals of landscape change and barometers for the assessment of population and distributional changes as a result of warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

PubMed

Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T

2009-01-22

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wigmore, Oliver; Mark, Bryan

2017-11-01

The glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating and thinning as a result of climate change, altering the timing, quantity and quality of water available to downstream users. Furthermore, increases in the number and size of proglacial lakes associated with these melting glaciers is increasing potential exposure to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Understanding how these glaciers are changing and their connection to proglacial lake systems is thus of critical importance. Most satellite data are too coarse for studying small mountain glaciers and are often affected by cloud cover, while traditional airborne photogrammetry and lidar are costly. Recent developments have made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) a viable and potentially transformative method for studying glacier change at high spatial resolution, on demand and at relatively low cost.Using a custom designed hexacopter built for high-altitude (4000-6000 m a. s. l. ) operation, we completed repeat aerial surveys (2014 and 2015) of the debris-covered Llaca Glacier tongue and proglacial lake system. High-resolution orthomosaics (5 cm) and digital elevation models (DEMs) (10 cm) were produced and their accuracy assessed. Analysis of these datasets reveals highly heterogeneous patterns of glacier change. The most rapid areas of ice loss were associated with exposed ice cliffs and meltwater ponds on the glacier surface. Considerable subsidence and low surface velocities were also measured on the sediments within the pro-glacial lake, indicating the presence of extensive regions of buried ice and continued connection to the glacier tongue. Only limited horizontal retreat of the glacier tongue was observed, indicating that measurements of changes in aerial extent alone are inadequate for monitoring changes in glacier ice quantity.

Localised hydrodynamics influence vulnerability of coral communities to environmental disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shedrawi, George; Falter, James L.; Friedman, Kim J.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Simpson, Christopher J.; Speed, Conrad W.; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zhang, Zhenlin

2017-09-01

The movement of water can have a significant influence on the vulnerability of hermatypic corals to environmental disturbances such as cyclone damage, heat stress and anoxia. Here, we explore the relationship between small reef-scale water circulation patterns and measured differences in the abundance, composition and vulnerability of coral assemblages over decades. Changes in coral cover and community structure within Bill's Bay (Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia) over a 22-yr period, during which multiple disturbance events (including mass bleaching, anoxia, and tropical cyclones) have impacted the area, were compared with spatial variation in water residence times (WRT). We found that reef sites associated with longer water residence times (WRT >15 h) experienced higher rates of coral mortality during acute environmental disturbances compared to reef sites with shorter WRT. Shifts in coral community composition from acroporid to faviid-dominated assemblages were also more prominent at sites with long WRT compared to reef sites with shorter WRT, although shifts in community composition were also observed at sites close to shore. Interestingly, these same long-WRT sites also tended to have the fastest recovery rates so that coral cover was returned to original levels of approximately 20% over two decades. This study provides empirical evidence that spatial patterns in water circulation and flushing can influence the resilience of coral communities, thus identifying areas sensitive to emerging threats associated with global climate change.