Science.gov

Sample records for create climatic conservation

  1. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Creating a Collaborative Conservation Vision in the Face of Climate Change Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Athearn, N.; Schlafmann, D.

    2015-12-01

    The 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) form a "network of networks," each defined by the characteristics of its ecoregion and its unique community of conservation managers, practitioners, and scientists. As self-directed partnerships, LCCs are strongly influenced not only by the landscape but by the evolving cultures and values that define the multi-faceted relationships between people and place. LCCs maintain an ecologically connected network across these diverse landscapes by transcending borders and leveraging resources. Natural resource managers are challenged to make decisions in the face of multiple uncertainties, and several partners across the network have recognized that climate change is one important uncertainty that spans boundaries - both across the conservation community and beyond. The impacts of climate change across the LCC Network are likely to be as diverse as the network itself - manifesting as, for example, sea level rise, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, and shifts in climate patterns and timing - but synergies are being leveraged within and between LCCs and national climate-focused programs to systematically address the needs of the network to support a collaborative conservation vision that addresses multiple landscape-scale stressors in the face of climate uncertainties. This vision is being achieved by leveraging the convening power of the LCCs and collaborating with DOI Climate Science Centers and others. Selected case studies will demonstrate how the network finds strength in its differences, but also reveals powerful collaborative opportunities through integrated science, shared conservation strategies, and strategic approaches for translating targeted science to conservation action. These examples exemplify past successes as well as ongoing efforts as the network continues to bring about effective application of climate science to achieve conservation outcomes across the LCC Network in an uncertain future climate.

  2. European Forest Conservation has Created More Robust Forests to Changes in Climate on the Continental and Regional Scale.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, A. L. S.; Thurnher, C.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.

    2016-12-01

    Europe has been placing forests under conservation since 1909, but more recently, with the establishment of Natura 2000 in 1992, the continent has seen even more land being taken out of active forest management and into conservation. Little research has been done on how this large-scale, multi-national forest conservation policy has affected European ecosystems to date. It is assumed that forest conservation can help play a role in mitigating climate change, but that is only true if forest under conservation will retain their level of net primary production (NPP) under climate anomalies (e.g., increased temperature, higher/lower precipitation) - which are projected to increase in the future. To test whether managed or unmanaged forests are better suited to withstand future climate change, we use remotely sensed data along with computer algorithms to isolate the management effect on forest productivity thereby removing drivers of forest productivity that management cannot control (e.g. elevation and latitude). We then examine the productivity and robustness of forests that are under conservation to those under typical forest management, using empirical data in the context of climate anomalies. We found that the sensitivity of forests to climate anomalies given the differences between managed and unmanaged forests varied by bio-region. The strongest effect was seen in central Europe. Here, unmanaged forests have been more robust to climate anomalies than their managed counterparts when analyzing relative NPP values. These unmanaged forests experienced the lowest relative decrease in productivity during drought, and experienced smaller variation in productivity in response to changing temperatures. Productivity levels in unmanaged forests in other regions also experienced little relative change overall given climate anomalies. Though there is a relatively short history of conservation management in Europe, with the average forest only having been conserved for 32

  3. Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits.

    PubMed

    Ebeling, Johannes; Yasué, Maï

    2008-05-27

    Recent proposals to compensate developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) under forthcoming climate change mitigation regimes are receiving increasing attention. Here we demonstrate that if RED credits were traded on international carbon markets, even moderate decreases in deforestation rates could generate billions of Euros annually for tropical forest conservation. We also discuss the main challenges for a RED mechanism that delivers real climatic benefits. These include providing sufficient incentives while only rewarding deforestation reductions beyond business-as-usual scenarios, addressing risks arising from forest degradation and international leakage, and ensuring permanence of emission reductions. Governance may become a formidable challenge for RED because some countries with the highest RED potentials score poorly on governance indices. In addition to climate mitigation, RED funds could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development. However, this will probably require targeted additional support because the highest biodiversity threats and human development needs may exist in countries that have limited income potentials from RED. In conclusion, how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities.

  4. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

  5. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

  6. Creating a climate for excellence.

    PubMed

    Lancaster, J

    1985-01-01

    Some people are motivated to achieve in a manner consistent with the goals of their organization while others pursue individual goals. The attitudes people hold determine their behavior. Therefore, the manager is charged with creating an environment that fosters employee commitment to organizational goals. To create a climate for achievement, managers must recognize that all employees want recognition. Employees perform more effectively when they understand the goals of the organization, know what is expected of them, and are part of a system that includes feedback and reinforcement. Generally, people perform more effectively in an environment with minimal threat and punishment; individual responsibility should be encouraged, rewards based on results, and a climate of trust and open communication should prevail.

  7. Climate change - creating watershed resilience

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change is likely to intensify the circulation of water, which will shift spatial and temporal availability of snowmelt and runoff. In addition, drought and floods are likely to be more frequent, severe and widespread. Higher air temperatures will lead to higher ocean temperatures, elevating ...

  8. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  9. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    PubMed Central

    Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141

  10. Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy.

    PubMed

    Gillson, Lindsey; Dawson, Terence P; Jack, Sam; McGeoch, Melodie A

    2013-03-01

    Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions. Conservation strategies in a changing climate therefore cannot be based only on predicted climate-driven range shifts. Here, we explore conservation and management options in a framework for prioritizing landscapes based on two 'axes of concern': landscape conservation capacity attributes (percentage of protected area, connectivity, and condition of the matrix) and vulnerability to climate change (climate change velocity and topographic variation). Nine other conservation actions are also presented, from understanding and predicting to planning and managing for climate change. We emphasize the need for adaptation and resilience in populations, ecosystems, and the conservation environment itself. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Creating Constructive Dialogues Around Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Presenting scientific facts to the general public often creates strong emotional responses in listeners. This is especially the case around issues like climate change, in which strong resistance can arise in individuals and groups. This is an inherent psychological characteristic when conveying disturbing information to people. In this presentation, I will describe personal experiences of presenting climate change science in various public forums. In particular, I will describe two experiences: one in which I was able to effectively work with the emotional reactions to the scientific information and another in which the resistance was difficult to resolve within the group. Based on these experiences and others, I describe an innovative four-stage process for working with situations in which there is strong resistance to the science of climate change (or other challenging scientific issues). I conclude by discussing how this approach can be employed and potential pitfalls with such an approach.

  12. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  13. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  14. Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

    PubMed

    Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

    2013-12-01

    ), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

  15. Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Groves, Craig R.; Game, Edward T.; Anderson, Mark G.; Cross, Molly; Enquist, Carolyn; Ferdana, Zach; Girvetz, Evan; Gondor, Anne; Hall, Kimberly R.; Higgins, Jonathan; Marshall, Rob; Popper, Ken; Schill, Steve; Shafer, Sarah L.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.

  16. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  17. Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

  18. Portfolio conservation of metapopulations under climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Sean C; Moore, Jonathan W; McClure, Michelle M; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Cooper, Andrew B

    2015-03-01

    Climate change is likely to lead to increasing population variability and extinction risk. Theoretically, greater population diversity should buffer against rising climate variability, and this theory is often invoked as a reason for greater conservation. However, this has rarely been quantified. Here we show how a portfolio approach to managing population diversity can inform metapopulation conservation priorities in a changing world. We develop a salmon metapopulation model in which productivity is driven by spatially distributed thermal tolerance and patterns of short- and long-term climate change. We then implement spatial conservation scenarios that control population carrying capacities and evaluate the metapopulation portfolios as a financial manager might: along axes of conservation risk and return. We show that preserving a diversity of thermal tolerances minimizes risk, given environmental stochasticity, and ensures persistence, given long-term environmental change. When the thermal tolerances of populations are unknown, doubling the number of populations conserved may nearly halve expected metapopulation variability. However, this reduction in variability can come at the expense of long-term persistence if climate change increasingly restricts available habitat, forcing ecological managers to balance society's desire for short-term stability and long-term viability. Our findings suggest the importance of conserving the processes that promote thermal-tolerance diversity, such as genetic diversity, habitat heterogeneity, and natural disturbance regimes, and demonstrate that diverse natural portfolios may be critical for metapopulation conservation in the face of increasing climate variability and change.

  19. Climate variations, soil conservation and reservoir sedimentation

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The integrated effects of soil conservation and a wetter climate on reservoir sedimentation were investigated for the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed in west-central Oklahoma. A 12% wetter climate since the mid-1980s led to an increase in soil erosion and downstream sediment yield that offset the redu...

  20. Climate Creators. Dynamic Characteristics of People Who Create Positive Organizational Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bedley, Gene

    This book contains practical information on creating a positive work climate within an organization. Twenty separate characteristics of successful "climate creators" are discussed. Information is also included on: (1) climate; (2) climate creators; (3) dynamic characteristics of climate creators; (4) the challenge of creating a positive climate;…

  1. Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.

    PubMed

    Kujala, Heini; Moilanen, Atte; Araújo, Miguel B; Cabeza, Mar

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.

  2. Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

    PubMed Central

    Moilanen, Atte; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe. PMID:23405068

  3. Creating Space: Engaging Deliberation about Climate Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phear, Nicolette

    In the United States public discourse, climate change is often framed as a polarized and intractable issue. The purpose of this dissertation was to explore deliberation about climate action, and to evaluate whether effective responses to climate change can be facilitated through new structures and processes that enable and encourage dialogue on the subject of how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Working with sustainability leaders at the University of Montana and in the community of Missoula, Montana, the author convened three public deliberations, in which a variety of solutions to climate change were discussed. Three questions guided this study: 1) what motivated individuals to engage in deliberation about climate action; 2) how did individual engagement vary and affect the quality of the deliberation; and 3) how effective were the deliberations in building a sense of individual agency and generating collaborative action strategies to address climate change. Based on a rigorous statistical analysis of survey responses combined with qualitative data, this action research study offers a holistic exploration of the three deliberative events convened. The deliberative processes generated collaborative action strategies and increased participants' sense of agency to take action on climate change; the findings also revealed differences in the ways individuals engaged and affected the quality of the overall group deliberation. This dissertation contributes to the literature on collaborative responses and collective action on climate change, broadens understanding of deliberative processes, and provides new insight into opportunities for leading deliberation about climate action.

  4. Assessing LGBTQ campus climate and creating change.

    PubMed

    Yost, Megan R; Gilmore, Stephanie

    2011-01-01

    We report the findings of a climate study of a liberal arts college in Pennsylvania. This climate assessment was comprehensive in content (heterosexual and cisgender individuals' attitudes, and LGBTQ individuals' experiences), participants (faculty, staff, and students), and methodology (qualitative and quantitative). We found low levels of sexual prejudice and generally positive perceptions of the campus, but positive attitudes were more strongly endorsed by heterosexual and cisgender than LGBTQ participants. We consider the impact of these perceptions on LGBTQ students' co-curricular involvement and discuss the institutional changes that are underway as a result of our study.

  5. Climate Change: Creating an Integrated Framework for Improving School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alliance for Excellent Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    This report from the Alliance finds that schools that struggle most with providing a positive school climate more often disproportionately serve students of color and low-income students. It also confirms that students of color and students from low-income families are less likely to have access to rigorous course work and experienced teachers,…

  6. Climate Change: Creating an Integrated Framework for Improving School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alliance for Excellent Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    This report from the Alliance finds that schools that struggle most with providing a positive school climate more often disproportionately serve students of color and low-income students. It also confirms that students of color and students from low-income families are less likely to have access to rigorous course work and experienced teachers,…

  7. Impact of weather and climate scenarios on conservation assessment outcomes

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This paper reviews selected watershed studies of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) and interprets findings from the perspective of potential climate change impacts on conservation outcomes. Primary foci are runoff, soil erosion, sediment transport, watershed sediment yield, and asso...

  8. Creating a Positive School Climate at the Junior High Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Licata, Vincent F.

    One of the seven correlates of an effective school, as identified by the Effective Schools Research, is a positive school climate: a positive attitude on the part of the entire staff and student body exhibited through overt behavior that creates a warm, orderly learning environment. Development of such an environment depends upon: (1) strong…

  9. Creating a Learning Climate: A South African Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carrim, Nasima Mohamed Hoosen; Basson, Johan Schutte

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether there were differences in how one public and two private South African organizations created a learning climate. Design/methodology/approach: This article is based on a survey and comparative analysis of specific departments in a chemical and gas company, an insurance company, and a…

  10. Creating a Positive School Climate at the Junior High Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Licata, Vincent F.

    One of the seven correlates of an effective school, as identified by the Effective Schools Research, is a positive school climate: a positive attitude on the part of the entire staff and student body exhibited through overt behavior that creates a warm, orderly learning environment. Development of such an environment depends upon: (1) strong…

  11. Creating a Learning Climate: A South African Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carrim, Nasima Mohamed Hoosen; Basson, Johan Schutte

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether there were differences in how one public and two private South African organizations created a learning climate. Design/methodology/approach: This article is based on a survey and comparative analysis of specific departments in a chemical and gas company, an insurance company, and a…

  12. Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments.

    PubMed

    Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward

    2015-01-01

    An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation-a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.

  13. Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mcleod, E.; Green, A.; Game, E.; Anthony, K.; Cinner, J.; Heron, S. F.; Kleypas, J. A.; Lovelock, C.; Pandolfi, J.; Pressey, B.; Salm, R.; Schill, S.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2013-05-01

    Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. We address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.

  14. Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments

    PubMed Central

    Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward

    2015-01-01

    An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation—a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems. PMID:26937271

  15. A climatic stability approach to prioritizing global conservation investments.

    PubMed

    Iwamura, Takuya; Wilson, Kerrie A; Venter, Oscar; Possingham, Hugh P

    2010-11-30

    Climate change is impacting species and ecosystems globally. Many existing templates to identify the most important areas to conserve terrestrial biodiversity at the global scale neglect the future impacts of climate change. Unstable climatic conditions are predicted to undermine conservation investments in the future. This paper presents an approach to developing a resource allocation algorithm for conservation investment that incorporates the ecological stability of ecoregions under climate change. We discover that allocating funds in this way changes the optimal schedule of global investments both spatially and temporally. This allocation reduces the biodiversity loss of terrestrial endemic species from protected areas due to climate change by 22% for the period of 2002-2052, when compared to allocations that do not consider climate change. To maximize the resilience of global biodiversity to climate change we recommend that funding be increased in ecoregions located in the tropics and/or mid-elevation habitats, where climatic conditions are predicted to remain relatively stable. Accounting for the ecological stability of ecoregions provides a realistic approach to incorporating climate change into global conservation planning, with potential to save more species from extinction in the long term.

  16. Creating a Learning Community for Solutions to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloom, A. J.; Benedict, B. A.; Blockstein, D. E.; Hassenzahl, D. M.; Hunter, A.; Jorgensen, A. D.; Pfirman, S. L.

    2011-12-01

    The rapidly evolving and interdisciplinary nature of climate change presents a challenge to colleges and universities as they seek to educate undergraduate students. To address this challenge, the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) with NSF funding is creating a nationwide cyber-enabled learning community called CAMEL (Climate, Adaptation, and Mitigation e-Learning). CAMEL engages experts in science, policy and decision-making, education, and assessment in the production of a virtual toolbox of curricular resources designed for teaching climate change causes, consequences, and solutions. CAMEL is: ? Developing cyberinfrastructure that supports and promotes the creation of materials and community; ? Generating materials for the Encyclopedia of Earth, a site averaging 50,000 views per day; ? Ensuring that materials developed and shared are founded on the best available scientific information and follow the most appropriate educational practices; ? Assisting faculty at institutions of higher education across the United States as they create, improve, test, and share resources for teaching students not only how to diagnose climate change problems, but also to identify and effect solutions; ? Evaluating the determinants of successful community building using cybermedia. The community and resultant content range from general education to upper division courses for students in a variety of majors. At the center of the community are the 160 colleges and universities represented in NCSE's Council of Environmental Deans and Directors. Members of this group represent recognized expertise in virtually all areas of this project. A team with substantial experience with evaluating innovative initiatives in STEM education is administering the evaluation component.

  17. Biodiversity conservation: climate change and extinction risk.

    PubMed

    Harte, John; Ostling, Annette; Green, Jessica L; Kinzig, Ann

    2004-07-01

    Thomas et al. have carried out a useful analysis of the extinction risk from climate warming. Their overall conclusion, that a large fraction of extant species could be driven to extinction by expected climate trends over the next 50 years, is compelling: it adds to the many other reasons why new energy policies are needed to reduce the pace of warming.

  18. Climate change and water conservation effects on water availability and vegetation patterns in a stream valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Knaap, Yasmijn; de Graaf, Myrjam; van Ek, Remco; Witte, Jan-Philip; Aerts, Rien; Bierkens, Marc; van Bodegom, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Climate change predictions include an increase in global temperature and changes in precipitation patterns at spatial and seasonal scale. The seasonal changes for temperate Europe include a decrease in the amount of precipitation in summer and an increase in winter. This may lead to an increased flooding risk in winter and early spring, while in summer the drought risk is likely to increase. These hydrological changes can have profound effects on vegetation patterns and development, especially for groundwater dependent vegetation. Water conservation measures can be used to combat the potential negative effects of these changes. Conservation measures can include aquifer storage and recovery, damming streams, or creating retention zones for flooding events. The implementation of these measures can contribute to preserving groundwater dependent vegetation patterns. In this study we simulated with an integrated surface- and groundwater model and a climate robust vegetation model, the implementation of water conservation measures in a stream valley catchment in the Netherlands. We modeled the effects on water availability and on vegetation patterns. The conservation measures were simulated for the current climate and for two climate scenarios, with a temperature increase of two degrees Celsius and either an increase or decrease in precipitation. Water tables were increased in stream valley zones, where groundwater dependent vegetation dominates, to ensure suitable abiotic conditions. The results showed that the water conservation measures increased the water table considerably in a future climate, compared to no conservation measures. Groundwater dependent vegetation was positively stimulated with these new hydrological conditions. With these models we successfully tested the effectiveness of the water conservation measures on water availability and vegetation patterns to ameliorate the negative effects of climate change. We therefore argue that water conservation

  19. Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

  20. Climate change creates rapid species turnover in montane communities.

    PubMed

    Gibson-Reinemer, Daniel K; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Rahel, Frank J

    2015-06-01

    Recent decades have seen substantial changes in patterns of biodiversity worldwide. Simultaneously, climate change is producing a widespread pattern of species' range shifts to higher latitudes and higher elevations, potentially creating novel assemblages as species shift at different rates. However, the direct link between species' turnover as a result of climate-induced range shifts has not yet been empirically evaluated. We measured rates of species turnover associated with species' range shifts in relatively undisturbed montane areas in Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and the Indo-Pacific. We show that species turnover is rapidly creating novel assemblages, and this can be explained by variable changes in species' range limits following warming. Across all the areas we analyzed, mean species' turnover was 12% per decade, which was nearly balanced between the loss of existing co-occurrences and the gain of novel co-occurrences. Turnover appears to be more rapid among ectothermic assemblages, and some evidence suggests tropical assemblages may be responding at more rapid rates than temperate assemblages.

  1. Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas

  2. Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

    PubMed

    Hamann, Andreas; Roberts, David R; Barber, Quinn E; Carroll, Carlos; Nielsen, Scott E

    2015-02-01

    The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities). © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Conservation strategies to mitigate impacts from climate change in Amazonia.

    PubMed

    Killeen, Timothy J; Solórzano, Luis A

    2008-05-27

    Protected area systems and conservation corridors can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on Amazonian biodiversity. We propose conservation design criteria that will help species survive in situ or adjust range distributions in response to increased drought. The first priority is to protect the western Amazon, identified as the 'Core Amazon', due to stable rainfall regimes and macro-ecological phenomena that have led to the evolution of high levels of biodiversity. Ecotones can buffer the impact from climate change because populations are genetically adapted to climate extremes, particularly seasonality, because high levels of habitat diversity are associated with edaphic variability. Future climatic tension zones should be surveyed for geomorphological features that capture rain or conserve soil moisture to identify potential refugia for humid forest species. Conservation corridors should span environmental gradients to ensure that species can shift range distributions. Riparian corridors provide protection to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Multiple potential altitudinal corridors exist in the Andes, but natural and anthropogenic bottlenecks will constrain the ability of species to shift their ranges and adapt to climate change. Planned infrastructure investments are a serious threat to the potential to consolidate corridors over the short and medium term.

  4. Climate Watch and Spoonbill Watch: Engaging Communities in Climate Science and Bird Conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michel, N. L.; Baker, R.; Bergstrom, E.; Cox, D.; Cox, G.; Dale, K.; Jensen, C.; Langham, G.; LeBaron, G.; Loftus, W.; Rowden, J.; Slavin, Z.; Smithson-Stanley, L.; Wilsey, C.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change poses serious challenges for conservation scientists and policymakers. Yet with these challenges come equally great opportunities to engage communities of concerned citizens in climate science and conservation. National Audubon Society's 2014 Birds and Climate Change report found that 314 North American bird species could lose over half their breeding or wintering ranges by 2080 due to climate change. Consequently, in 2016 Audubon developed two new crowd-sourced science programs that mobilized existing birding communities (i.e., Audubon Society chapters) in partnership with scientists to evaluate climate change effects on birds, and take action to protect vulnerable populations. Climate Watch expands upon traditional monitoring programs by involving citizen scientists in hypothesis-driven science, testing predictions of climate-driven range expansion in bluebirds developed by National Audubon Society scientists. Spoonbill Watch is a partnership between an Audubon research scientist and the Pelican Island Audubon Society community, in which citizen scientists monitor a Roseate Spoonbill colony recently established in response to changing habitat and climatic conditions. Additionally, Spoonbill Watch participants and leaders have moved beyond monitoring to take action to protect the colony, by working with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission towards getting the site declared as a Critical Wildlife Area and by conducting local outreach and education efforts. We will present overviews, lessons learned, and conservation goals and opportunities achieved during the pilot year of Climate Watch and Spoonbill Watch. Scientific - community partnerships such as these are essential to confront the threats posed by climate change.

  5. Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli

    2017-03-07

    As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at

  6. Climate Change Hastens the Conservation Urgency of an Endangered Ungulate

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Junhua; Jiang, Zhigang

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change. PMID:21826214

  7. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    PubMed

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world.

  8. Conserving the zoological resources of Bangladesh under a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Das, Bidhan C

    2009-06-01

    It is now well recognized that Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change and sea level rise. Low levels of natural resources and a high occurrence of natural disasters further add to the challenges faced by the country. The impacts of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate these existing stresses and constitute a serious impediment to poverty reduction and economic development. Ecosystems and biodiversity are important key sectors of the economy and natural resources of the country are selected as the most vulnerable to climate change. It is for these reasons that Bangladesh should prepare to conserve its natural resources under changed climatic conditions. Unfortunately, the development of specific strategies and policies to address the effects of climate change on the ecosystem and on biodiversity has not commenced in Bangladesh. Here, I present a detailed review of animal resources of Bangladesh, an outline of the major areas in zoological research to be integrated to adapt to climate change, and identified few components for each of the aforesaid areas in relation to the natural resource conservation and management in the country.

  9. Creating a Partnering Community Aimed to Foster Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutherford, D.; McNeal, K. S.; Smith, R.; Hare, D.; Nair, U. S.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast through crafting a shared vision and strategic plan among stakeholders that promotes scientific formal and informal educational resources, materials and programs; a diverse network of key partnering organizations throughout the Southeastern United States (SE US); and effective public dialogues that address diverse learners and audiences and supports learning of climate, climate change, and its relevance upon human and environmental systems. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with more than fifty key stakeholders that stem from a few key publics such as agriculture, education, leisure, religious organizations, and culturally diverse communities. These key publics in the SE US frequently consist of individuals that place great trust in local, private efforts, and CLiPSE has realized the importance of the role of the partnering organizations in providing information through a trusted source. A second unique characteristic of the SE US is the predominately conservative and Protestant citizenry in the region. Working with and through these communities enhances climate change education outreach to this citizenry. The CLiPSE project rests on solid climate science and learning science research in order to formulate an effective plan with desired learning outcomes of critical thinking and civil conversation through effective communication strategies. This paper will present the CLiPSE model in reaching the key publics that traditionally hold ideologies that are traditionally perceived as incompatible with climate change science. We will present the strategies utilized to bring together experts and researchers in climate science, learning science, and social science with

  10. Creating Classroom-Level Measures of Citizenship Education Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barber, Carolyn; Sweetwood, Sachiko Ogata; King, Makini

    2015-01-01

    Optimal classroom climates for civic education encourage the development of knowledge, skills and dispositions necessary for students to become involved citizens. One of the simplest and most common ways of measuring classroom climate in this field is to aggregate individual students' perceptions of classroom climate to the group level; however,…

  11. Creating Classroom-Level Measures of Citizenship Education Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barber, Carolyn; Sweetwood, Sachiko Ogata; King, Makini

    2015-01-01

    Optimal classroom climates for civic education encourage the development of knowledge, skills and dispositions necessary for students to become involved citizens. One of the simplest and most common ways of measuring classroom climate in this field is to aggregate individual students' perceptions of classroom climate to the group level; however,…

  12. Climate Change and Conservation Planning in California: The San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Branciforte, R.; Weiss, S. B.; Schaefer, N.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change threatens California's vast and unique biodiversity. The Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals is a comprehensive regional biodiversity assessment of the 9 counties surrounding San Francisco Bay, and is designing conservation land networks that will serve to protect, manage, and restore that biodiversity. Conservation goals for vegetation, rare plants, mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates are set, and those goals are met using the optimization algorithm MARXAN. Climate change issues are being considered in the assessment and network design in several ways. The high spatial variability at mesoclimatic and topoclimatic scales in California creates high local biodiversity, and provides some degree of local resiliency to macroclimatic change. Mesoclimatic variability from 800 m scale PRISM climatic norms is used to assess "mesoclimate spaces" in distinct mountain ranges, so that high mesoclimatic variability, especially local extremes that likely support range limits of species and potential climatic refugia, can be captured in the network. Quantitative measures of network resiliency to climate change include the spatial range of key temperature and precipitation variables within planning units. Topoclimatic variability provides a finer-grained spatial patterning. Downscaling to the topoclimatic scale (10-50 m scale) includes modeling solar radiation across DEMs for predicting maximum temperature differentials, and topographic position indices for modeling minimum temperature differentials. PRISM data are also used to differentiate grasslands into distinct warm and cool types. The overall conservation strategy includes local and regional connectivity so that range shifts can be accommodated.

  13. Climate change and national crop wild relative conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Jade; Magos Brehm, Joana; van Oort, Bob; Asdal, Åsmund; Rasmussen, Morten; Maxted, Nigel

    2017-02-18

    Climate change is likely to be one of the most important factors affecting our future food security. To mitigate negative impacts, we will require our crops to be more genetically diverse. Such diversity is available in crop wild relatives (CWRs), the wild taxa relatively closely related to crops and from which diverse traits can be transferred to the crop. Conservation of such genetic resources resides within the nation where they are found; therefore, national-level conservation recommendations are fundamental to global food security. We investigate the potential impact of climate change on CWR richness in Norway. The consequences of a 1.5 and 3.0 °C temperature rise were studied for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, 2080 and then compared to the present climate. The results indicate a pattern of shifting CWR richness from the south to the north, with increases in taxa turnover and in the numbers of threatened taxa. Recommendations for in situ and ex situ conservation actions over the short and long term for the priority CWRs in Norway are presented. The methods and recommendations developed here can be applied within other nations and at regional and global levels to improve the effectiveness of conservation actions and help ensure global food security.

  14. Conservation of Arctic marine mammals faced with climate change.

    PubMed

    Ragen, Timothy J; Huntington, Henry P; Hovelsrud, Grete K

    2008-03-01

    On a daily basis, societies are making decisions that will influence the effects of climate change for decades or even centuries to come. To promote informed management of the associated risks, we review available conservation measures for Arctic marine mammals, a group that includes some of the most charismatic species on earth. The majority of available conservation measures (e.g., restrictions on hunting, protection of essential habitat areas from development, reduction of incidental take) are intended to address the effects of increasing human activity in the Arctic that are likely to follow decreasing sea ice and rising temperatures. As important as those measures will be in the effort to conserve Arctic marine mammals and ecosystems, they will not address the primary physical manifestations of climate change, such as loss of sea ice. Short of actions to prevent climate change, there are no known conservation measures that can be used to ensure the long-term persistence of these species and ecosystems as we know them today.

  15. Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks

    PubMed Central

    Jacques, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites. PMID:24098056

  16. Large climate-moderating envelopes for enclosed structures: a preliminary evaluation of energy conservation potential

    SciTech Connect

    Wendt, R.L.; Giles, G.E.; Park, J.E.

    1981-12-01

    An investigation was made of the basic impacts of putting a large secondary enclosure around a number of functions and thereby creating a Large Climate Moderating Envelope (LCME). This study is a preliminary estimate of the energy conservation benefits of an LCME. A hypothetical LMCE design was chosen and a coupled fluid dynamic and energy transport analysis was performed to estimate the energy conservation potential of this design. The heat transfer models included insolation, outside air temperature and wind, thermal radiation exchange with the sky, and between the fabric and ground and thermal storage in the earth mass beneath the LCME. The energy transported within the fluid by the buoyancy driven circulation was modeled as an incompressible fluid utilizing the Boussinesq approximation. The climatic conditions were assumed to vary in smooth repeating daily cycles. The numerical simulation of climatic variation was continued until the results within the LCME achieved a repeating daily cycle. The results for selected seasonally characteristic days were utilized to estimate the annual energy consumption of structures within an LCME relative to similar structures exposed to the exterior environment. The relative annual energy savings for summer-dominated climates was estimated to be approx. 70%. The energy savings for a winter-dominated climate LCME were estimated to be somewhat smaller but the LCME concept could offer significant benefits for agricultural applications for this type of climate.

  17. Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Sgrò, Carla M; Lowe, Andrew J; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2011-01-01

    Evolution occurs rapidly and is an ongoing process in our environments. Evolutionary principles need to be built into conservation efforts, particularly given the stressful conditions organisms are increasingly likely to experience because of climate change and ongoing habitat fragmentation. The concept of evolutionary resilience is a way of emphasizing evolutionary processes in conservation and landscape planning. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience and suggest how they might be incorporated into policy and management to ensure that resilience is maintained in the face of environmental degradation. PMID:25567976

  18. Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change.

    PubMed

    Sgrò, Carla M; Lowe, Andrew J; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2011-03-01

    Evolution occurs rapidly and is an ongoing process in our environments. Evolutionary principles need to be built into conservation efforts, particularly given the stressful conditions organisms are increasingly likely to experience because of climate change and ongoing habitat fragmentation. The concept of evolutionary resilience is a way of emphasizing evolutionary processes in conservation and landscape planning. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience and suggest how they might be incorporated into policy and management to ensure that resilience is maintained in the face of environmental degradation.

  19. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

  20. Climate Change Impacts on Soil and Water Conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garbrecht, Jurgen D.; Steiner, Jean L.; Cox, Craig A.

    2007-03-01

    Planning for Extremes: Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Soil and Water Conservation, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 1-3 November 2006 Climate change and particularly precipitation changes will affect water runoff and soil erosion from agricultural cropland, but will the change be large enough to warrant modifications in U.S. conservation policy or practice? In a 2003 report by the Soil and Water Conservation Society (SWCS), this question was answered with an emphatic yes. Impacts of projected precipitation changes on soil erosion and runoff are complex, display high regional and temporal variability, and depend on a number of nonclimatic factors, such as seasonal timing of agronomic practices and antecedent soil moisture conditions. Altogether, observed and projected changes in precipitation are believed to substantially heighten the risk of runoff, soil erosion, and related environmental consequences. This article reports on a follow-up workshop that called for a review of current approaches to estimating soil erosion and runoff on agricultural lands, enhancements to soil and water planning tools, and strengthening of conservation practices and standards.

  1. Comparison of the Motivational Climates Created during Multi-Activity Instruction and Sport Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Mitchum B.; Curtner-Smith, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that sport education (SE) may be a superior curriculum model to multi-activity (MA) teaching because its pedagogies and structures create a task-involving motivational climate. The purpose of this study was to describe and compare the objective motivational climates teachers create within the MA and SE models.…

  2. Comparison of the Motivational Climates Created during Multi-Activity Instruction and Sport Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Mitchum B.; Curtner-Smith, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that sport education (SE) may be a superior curriculum model to multi-activity (MA) teaching because its pedagogies and structures create a task-involving motivational climate. The purpose of this study was to describe and compare the objective motivational climates teachers create within the MA and SE models.…

  3. Estimating climate resilience for conservation across geophysical settings.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Mark G; Clark, Melissa; Sheldon, Arlene Olivero

    2014-08-01

    Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies-for every geophysical setting-sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands.

  4. Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wintle, Brendan A.; Bekessy, Sarah A.; Keith, David A.; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Cabeza, Mar; Schröder, Boris; Carvalho, Silvia B.; Falcucci, Alessandra; Maiorano, Luigi; Regan, Tracey J.; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi; Possingham, Hugh P.

    2011-10-01

    Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems. Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change. Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints. Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments. Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

  5. Creating a Positive Climate for Learning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans-Harvey, Cher

    1995-01-01

    This report points to recent social, economic, and technological changes in Canadian society that have produced significant challenges to higher education, and provides recommendations for improving the educational climate of higher education institutions and classrooms. It presents background information on positive learning environments and…

  6. Creating a climate for critical thinking in the preceptorship experience.

    PubMed

    Myrick, F; Yonge, O J

    2001-08-01

    The impact of the learning climate on students' ability to think critically during preceptorship cannot be underestimated. The success of students in learning to think critically rests largely with the tone set by preceptors and staff (Myrick 1998). Students must be led gently into the active role of discussing, dialoguing, and problem solving (Meyers 1986). They watch very carefully how respectfully preceptors and staff field their comments, quickly notice nonverbal cues that indicate how open, approachable and supportive the preceptors and the staff are to their questions and contributions, and then discern how valued they are as colleagues. When preceptors genuinely value, support, and work with students in the practice setting and staff accept them as part of the team, a climate that is conducive to learning and critical thinking is established. This is due to the fact that students feel safe enough to question, to challenge and be challenged, and to be creative in their problem solving. The purpose of this paper is threefold: a) to identify key factors in the preceptorship experience that contribute to the creation of a climate that is conductive to critical thinking; b) to provide important insights into the role of the preceptor and the staff within that context; and c) to discuss how nursing faculty can more actively contribute to ensuring that such a learning climate is achieved in the preceptorship experience. Copyright 2001 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

  7. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    PubMed

    Magris, Rafael A; Heron, Scott F; Pressey, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  8. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Magris, Rafael A.; Heron, Scott F.; Pressey, Robert L.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586

  9. Strategies for Creating a Caring Learning Climate in Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Weidong

    2015-01-01

    Teacher-student interactions are at the core of the teaching-learning process. There is research evidence showing that a teacher's caring behavior is strongly related to students' attitudes and engagement in physical education (PE). This article discusses practical strategies that PE teachers can employ to create a caring learning environment,…

  10. Strategies for Creating a Caring Learning Climate in Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Weidong

    2015-01-01

    Teacher-student interactions are at the core of the teaching-learning process. There is research evidence showing that a teacher's caring behavior is strongly related to students' attitudes and engagement in physical education (PE). This article discusses practical strategies that PE teachers can employ to create a caring learning environment,…

  11. Scanning the conservation horizon: A guide to climate change vulnerability assessment

    Treesearch

    Patty Glick; Bruce A. Stein; Naomi A. Edelson

    2011-01-01

    Rapid climate change is the defining conservation issue of our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly apparent, from drowned coastal marshes and drying prairie potholes to melting glaciers. These climate-driven changes will profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish and wildlife and the habitats on which they depend. Indeed, preparing for and...

  12. Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: A conservation based vulnerability framework

    Treesearch

    Debbie Jewitt; Barend F.N. Erasmus; Peter S. Goodman; Timothy G. O' Connor; William W. Hargrove; Damian M. Maddalena; Ed. T.F. Witkowski

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental...

  13. Perceived coach-created and peer-created motivational climates and their associations with team cohesion and athlete satisfaction: evidence from a longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    García-Calvo, Tomás; Leo, Francisco Miguel; Gonzalez-Ponce, Inmaculada; Sánchez-Miguel, Pedro Antonio; Mouratidis, Athanasios; Ntoumanis, Nikos

    2014-01-01

    In this longitudinal study, we examined the extent to which perceived coach- and peer-created motivational climates are associated with athlete-group cohesion and satisfaction with participation among Spanish soccer players competing in the Third National Division. Multilevel modelling analyses showed that perceived coach-created task climate was positively related to perceived cohesion and players' satisfaction with their participation within their team. Also, perceived peer-created task climate related positively to perceived cohesion. The results indicate the importance of considering peer-related aspects of the motivational climate in addition to considering the coach-related aspects of the motivational climate when examining motivational group dynamics in sport.

  14. Climatic Alterations of Wetlands: Conservation and Adaptation Practices in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddiquee, S. A.

    2016-02-01

    Unique geographic location and geo-morphological conditions of Bangladesh have made the wetlands of this country one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Wetland plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance of ecosystems and cultural figures and which occupy around 50% of the area. Drought, excessive temperature, mountain snowfields and glaciers melting, riverbank erosion, salinity intrusion, flashflood, storm surges, higher water temperatures, precipitation anomalies, coastal cyclones, seasonal anomalies and extremes are main threats to the wetland ecosystem. Enhanced UV-B radiation and increased summer precipitation will significantly increase dissolved organic carbon concentrations altering major biogeochemical cycles and also will result into the expansion of range for many invasive aquatic weeds. Generally, rising temperature will lower water quality through a fall in oxygen concentrations, release of phosphorus from sediments, increased thermal stability, and altered mixing patterns. As a result biodiversity is getting degraded, many species of flora and fauna are getting threatened, and wetland-based ecosystem is getting degenerated. At the same time, the living conditions of local people are deteriorating as livelihoods, socioeconomic institutions, and extensive cultural values as well. For conserving and managing wetlands technology, legislation, educational knowledge, action plan strategy and restoration practices are required. In order to address the human needs in the changing climate community-based adaptation approaches and wetland restoration, practices had been taken in almost every type of wetlands in Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh now needs a comprehensive strategy and integrated system combining political, economic, social, technological approaches and institutional supports to address sustainable wetland restoration, conservation and the newly added crisis, climate change.

  15. Watershed Conservation, Groundwater Management, and Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roumasset, J.; Burnett, K.; Wada, C.

    2009-12-01

    Sustainability science is transdisciplinary, organizing research to deliver meaningful and practical contributions to critical issues of resource management. As yet, however, sustainability science has not been integrated with the policy sciences. We provide a step towards integration by providing an integrated model of optimal groundwater management and investment in watershed conservation. The joint optimization problem is solved under alternative forecasts of the changing rainfall distribution for the Koolau Watershed in Oahu, Hawaii. Optimal groundwater management is solved using a simplified one-dimensional model of the groundwater aquifer for analytical tractability. For a constant aquifer recharge, the model solves for the optimal trajectories of water extraction up to the desalination steady state and an incentive compatible pricing scheme. The Koolau Watershed is currently being degraded, however, by invasive plants such as Miconia calvescens and feral animals, especially wild pigs. Runoff and erosion have increased and groundwater recharge is at risk. The Koolau Partnership, a coalition of private owners, the State Department of Land and Natural Resources have proposed a $5 million (present value) conservation plan that promises to halt further losses of recharge. We compare this to the enhanced present value of the aquifer, showing the benefits are an order of magnitude greater than the costs. If conservation is done in the absence of efficient groundwater management, however, more than 40% of the potential benefits would be wasted by under-pricing and overconsumption. We require an estimate of the rainfall-generating distribution and how that distribution is changing over time. We obtain these from statistical downsizing of IPCC climate models. Despite the finding that global warming will increase precipitation for most of the world, the opposite is forecast for Hawaii. A University of Hawaii study finds that the most likely precipitation scenario is a

  16. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  17. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  18. Northwest Climate Science Center: Integrating Regional Research, Conservation and Natural Resource Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Bisbal, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010, among the first three of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium (Oregon State University, University of Idaho, and the University of Washington), which has the capacity to generate and coordinate decision-relevant science related to climate, thus serving stakeholders across the Pacific Northwest region. The NW CSC has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. Collaboration between the NW CSC and these three LCCs addresses the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Early in 2012, the NW CSC released its first Strategic Plan for the period 2012-2015. The plan offers a practical blueprint for operation and describes five core services that the NW CSC provides to the Northwest community. These core services emphasize (a) bringing together the regional resource management and science communities to calibrate priorities and ensure efficient integration of climate science resources and tools when addressing practical issues of regional significance; (b) developing and implementing a stakeholder-driven science agenda which highlights the NW CSC's regional leadership in generating scenarios of the future environment of the NW; (c) supporting and training graduate students at the three consortium universities, including through an annual 'Climate science boot camp'; (d) providing a platform for effective climate-change-related communication among scientists, resource managers, and the general public; and (e) national leadership in data management and climate scenario development.

  19. Energy conservation in the earth's crust and climate change.

    PubMed

    Mu, Yao; Mu, Xinzhi

    2013-02-01

    Among various matters which make up the earth's crust, the thermal conductivity of coal, oil, and oil-gas, which are formed over a long period of geological time, is extremely low. This is significant to prevent transferring the internal heat of the earth to the thermal insulation of the surface, cooling the surface of the earth, stimulating biological evolution, and maintaining natural ecological balance as well. Fossil energy is thermal insulating layer in the earth's crust. Just like the function of the thermal isolation of subcutaneous fatty tissue under the dermis of human skin, it keeps the internal heat within the organism so it won't be transferred to the skin's surface and be lost maintaining body temperature at low temperatures. Coal, oil, oil-gas, and fat belong to the same hydrocarbons, and the functions of their thermal insulation are exactly the same. That is to say, coal, oil, and oil-gas are just like the earth's "subcutaneous fatty tissue" and objectively formed the insulation protection on earth's surface. This paper argues that the human large-scale extraction of fossil energy leads to damage of the earth's crust heat-resistant sealing, increasing terrestrial heat flow, or the heat flow as it is called, transferring the internal heat of the earth to Earth's surface excessively, and causing geotemperature and sea temperature to rise, thus giving rise to global warming. The reason for climate warming is not due to the expansion of greenhouse gases but to the wide exploitation of fossil energy, which destroyed the heat insulation of the earth's crust, making more heat from the interior of the earth be released to the atmosphere. Based on the energy conservation principle, the measurement of the increase of the average global temperature that was caused by the increase of terrestrial heat flow since the Industrial Revolution is consistent with practical data. This paper illustrates "pathogenesis" of climate change using medical knowledge. The

  20. Managing aquatic species of conservation concern in the face of climate change and invasive species.

    PubMed

    Rahel, Frank J; Bierwagen, Britta; Taniguchi, Yoshinori

    2008-06-01

    The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.

  1. Creating a climate literate society: A review of efforts to ensure climate literate citizens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niepold, F.; McCaffery, M.; Barstow, D.

    2008-12-01

    This session will present about the effort to develop the Climate Literacy essential principles and fundamental concepts using the AAAS Project 2061 Atlas of Science. The development team included representatives from federal science agencies, formal and informal educators, non-governmental organizations, and other institutions involved with climate research, education, and outreach. This effort resulted in a guide that can be used to engage the broad community to develop a robust conceptual framework that addresses the essential principles and fundamental concepts that climate literate citizens and students should know. That document has been reviewed and commented on extensively during several reviews. A recent report completed for NOAA by the Center for Earth and Space Science Education (/Revolutionizing Earth System Science Education for the 21st Century/) found that Earth system science education in the United States is in need of significant improvement. The report finds that there is great variation in how states incorporate modern Earth and climate science into their science standards. Through a partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Project 2061 we have collaborated to define climate literacy and develop weather and climate benchmarks for science literacy. The newly developed and revised national weather and climate science education standards were published in March of 2007 in the AAAS Project 2061 Atlas for Science Literacy volume II served as a basis for the climate literacy effort. The Climate Literacy essential principles and fundamental concepts are available at: http://www.climate.noaa.gov/education/ and through the Climate Literacy Network at http://www.climateliteracynow.org.

  2. Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Jason L; Yoder, Anne D

    2015-01-01

    Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into

  3. Using student generated blogs to create a global perspective on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.

    2012-12-01

    Students in an introductory Global Climate Change college course develop a global perspective on climate change causes, impacts, and mitigation through the use of student generated content in the form of blogging. The students are from diverse backgrounds and mostly non-science majors. They each create a blog for an assigned country. They are immersed in active learning through daily activities that teach them to use numerical data to create and analyze graphs for their blogs. Students are familiarized with other science skills as well, such as how to critically evaluate their sources. This method of using student generated content and active learning encourages students to immerse themselves in the viewpoint of people living in other countries. This creates a tangible understanding of the global stakes of climate change and fosters an emotional involvement in what otherwise might have been an abstract or intimidating topic. The front page of the course blog opens with a world map and a feed from each student's blog. Upon clicking on a country on the world map, the reader is taken to the blog page created by the student in charge of that country. The United States is reserved as a sample page created by the instructor. Throughout the semester, students follow a series of assignments that build their knowledge of the geography, climate, and culture of their assigned country, and these appear as tabs, or informational pages, on their blog. Students are taught to use Excel and they each create temperature and precipitation graphs that compare the climate of a city in their assigned country to that of their home city. Students then write their first blog post on their country's contribution to climate change and how that compares to other countries in the world by importing carbon dioxide emissions data into Excel and creating their own graphs to be used as images in their blog post. The second blog post covers potential climate change impacts on their assigned country

  4. Creating a climate of mutual respect among employees: a workshop design.

    PubMed

    DeLellis, A J

    1997-06-01

    An organizational climate that fosters mutual respect can be created. But respect does not mean the same thing to all people. This article describes a workshop design that guides facilitators through the process of examining individual and group behaviors related to respect, and for creating individual and organization wide approaches for getting respect and giving it. Readers will learn how to conduct this nine-step workshop. They will learn how to guide participants in the development of their personal, individual prescriptions for getting and giving respect, and in the establishment of consensus regarding their own organizational climate.

  5. Estimating Climate Resilience for Conservation across Geophysical Settings

    PubMed Central

    ANDERSON, MARK G; CLARK, MELISSA; SHELDON, ARLENE OLIVERO

    2014-01-01

    Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies—for every geophysical setting—sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands. Identificación de Sitios Duraderos para la Conservación Usando la Diversidad del Paisaje y las Conexiones Locales para Estimar la Capacidad de Recuperación al Cambio Climático Resumen Los conservacionistas necesitan un método mediante el cual

  6. Climate change, sea-level rise, and conservation: keeping island biodiversity afloat.

    PubMed

    Courchamp, Franck; Hoffmann, Benjamin D; Russell, James C; Leclerc, Camille; Bellard, Céline

    2014-03-01

    Island conservation programs have been spectacularly successful over the past five decades, yet they generally do not account for impacts of climate change. Here, we argue that the full spectrum of climate change, especially sea-level rise and loss of suitable climatic conditions, should be rapidly integrated into island biodiversity research and management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Matching the multiple scales of conservation with the multiple scales of climate change.

    PubMed

    Wiens, John A; Bachelet, Dominique

    2010-02-01

    To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.

  8. Creating Climate Change Awareness in South African Schools through Practical Chemistry Demonstrations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sunassee, Suthananda N.; Young, Ryan M.; Sewry, Joyce D.; Harrison, Timothy G.; Shallcross, Dudley E.

    2012-01-01

    In accordance with the requirements for the National Curriculum Statement for both Life sciences and Physical sciences and the importance of community engagement in Higher Education in South Africa, this paper described the use of the lecture-demonstration "A Pollutant's Tale" to create climate change awareness amongst school learners.…

  9. Creating a Climate for Innovation in Education: Reframing Structure, Culture, and Leadership Practices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong-Kam, JoAnn C. W. N.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this study was on creating a climate for innovation in schools to lead to improvements in student achievement. Bolman and Deal's (2008) four frame model of organizational thinking was used as a framework for the study. The study examined the influence of leadership practices, structure, and school culture in the context of a K-12…

  10. Creating a Positive Social-Emotional Climate in Your Elementary Physical Education Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gagnon, Amy G.

    2016-01-01

    Creating a positive social-emotional climate must be the backbone of a quality elementary physical education program. The need to belong, have friends, and feel emotionally safe are basic needs everyone has, but meeting these needs in the classroom can be challenging at times. Strategies regarding how to implement a positive social-emotional…

  11. The Teaching Portfolio: The Department Chairperson's Role in Creating a Climate of Teaching Excellence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, John P.

    While the concept of the teaching portfolio is variously defined, portfolios generally provide the opportunity to display teaching abilities and accomplishments, as well as reflect on one's teaching. In using teaching portfolios, the departmental chairperson must create a climate in which faculty understand that putting together a portfolio will…

  12. Creating a Positive Social-Emotional Climate in Your Elementary Physical Education Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gagnon, Amy G.

    2016-01-01

    Creating a positive social-emotional climate must be the backbone of a quality elementary physical education program. The need to belong, have friends, and feel emotionally safe are basic needs everyone has, but meeting these needs in the classroom can be challenging at times. Strategies regarding how to implement a positive social-emotional…

  13. Creating a Climate for Innovation in Education: Reframing Structure, Culture, and Leadership Practices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong-Kam, JoAnn C. W. N.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this study was on creating a climate for innovation in schools to lead to improvements in student achievement. Bolman and Deal's (2008) four frame model of organizational thinking was used as a framework for the study. The study examined the influence of leadership practices, structure, and school culture in the context of a K-12…

  14. Niche overlap of competing carnivores across climatic gradients and the conservation implications of climate change at geographic range margins

    Treesearch

    William J. Zielinski; Jody M. Tucker; Kerry M. Rennie

    2017-01-01

    There is considerable interest in factors controlling “warm-edge” limits – the lower elevation and latitudinal edges of a species' range. Understanding whether conservation measures can mitigate anticipated change in climate requires consideration of future climate as well as species interactions. We explored niche relations of martens and fishers at their...

  15. A grounded theory of faculty's use of humanization to create online course climate.

    PubMed

    Cox-Davenport, Rebecca A

    2014-03-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the way faculty establish course social presence in an online course. The community of inquiry model by Garrison, Anderson, and Archer distinguished the area of social presence as an important component of online learning, and this study sought to understand how faculty perceive and create social presence in their online classroom. By employing a grounded theory approach, a substantive theory was developed to explain the way in which faculty create and maintain an online course climate. The sample consisted of 10 nursing faculty teaching various master's in nursing courses. Through a rigorous qualitative process using nursing faculty interviews and online course analysis, humanization was found to be the core category in setting online course climate. Faculty's efforts to humanize the climate lead each member of the community to view the other members as real, thereby enabling the establishment of online social presence.

  16. Biodiversity funds and conservation needs in the EU under climate change.

    PubMed

    Lung, Tobias; Meller, Laura; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar

    2014-07-01

    Despite ambitious biodiversity policy goals, less than a fifth of the European Union's (EU) legally protected species and habitats show a favorable conservation status. The recent EU biodiversity strategy recognizes that climate change adds to the challenge of halting biodiversity loss, and that an optimal distribution of financial resources is needed. Here, we analyze recent EU biodiversity funding from a climate change perspective. We compare the allocation of funds to the distribution of both current conservation priorities (within and beyond Natura 2000) and future conservation needs at the level of NUTS-2 regions, using modelled bird distributions as indicators of conservation value. We find that funding is reasonably well aligned with current conservation efforts but poorly fit with future needs under climate change, indicating obstacles for implementing adaptation measures. We suggest revising EU biodiversity funding instruments for the 2014-2020 budget period to better account for potential climate change impacts on biodiversity.

  17. Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

    PubMed

    Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

    2017-04-01

    Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.

  18. Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sofaer, Helen; Skagen, Susan; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland

  19. Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

    PubMed

    Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

    2016-09-01

    Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland

  20. Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L.; Ando , Amy W.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change related uncertainty in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation and land-use planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz’s risk diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling policy makers and conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to overcome such uncertainty. However this method is information intensive and requires a large number of climate change scenarios for carrying out fine scale conservation planning. We develop an iterative portfolio 47 analysis technique that enables policy makers and conservation agents to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of sub-regions in a planning landscape in the absence of sufficient number of climate scenarios. We use a case study of the Prairie Pothole Region to show that lack of sufficient information prevents a conservation agent from attaining the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes. However, our iterative approach enables a decision maker to do fine-scale portfolio allocation with limited available climate change forecasts in a manner that obtains the best possible risk-return combinations, especially when targeting low risk opportunities.

  1. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

    PubMed

    Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used

  2. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

    PubMed Central

    Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be

  3. Conservation of Endangered Species Considering Diverse Secondary Impacts by Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mo, Y.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Park, J. H.; Sung, S.; Yang, B.; Sungho, K.; Park, C.

    2016-12-01

    Numerous studies focus on range shift of species as changes in temperature and precipitation by climate change. However, secondary impacts by climate change also effect to species such as spread of invasive species, higher frequency of landslide and change of land suitable for agriculture. Therefore, we aimed to find where the geographical areas for conserving endangered species by global warming as well as secondary effects of climate change have potential in South Korea in 2050s. The change of species distributions and landslide was simulated using species distribution models (SDMs) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The land suitability for agriculture calculated by overlaying the environment variable maps related to the growth of crops. To find the spatial distribution of priority areas for conserving species from climate change impacts, MARXAN software was used to consider both of negative effects by secondary effects and endangered species distributions. As a result, expanding the present protected areas gives the most effective measure, and it was needed to decide to select conservation or development in the overlapped area between endangered species and invasive species distributions. Landslide hazard areas were excluded from conservation areas because it is hard to contribute to conserve species even though natural disasters produce dynamic ecosystem. As considering these secondary effects by climate change, policy decision makers could develop spatial conservation plan able to conserve more important area for species in the future.

  4. Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

  5. Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.

    PubMed

    Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A; Opperman, Jeffrey J

    2012-06-01

    Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

  6. Integrating Climate Change into Habitat Conservation Plans Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A.; Opperman, Jeffrey J.

    2012-06-01

    Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

  7. Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

    PubMed Central

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to

  8. Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

    PubMed

    Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C

    2014-05-01

    A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Public Support for Conserving Bird Species Runs Counter to Climate Change Impacts on Their Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick; Fjeldså, Jon; Rahbek, Carsten; Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that global climate change will alter the spatiotemporal occurrences and abundances of many species at continental scales. This will have implications for efficient conservation of biodiversity. We investigate if the general public in Denmark are willing to pay for the preservation of birds potentially immigrating and establishing breeding populations due to climate change to the same extent that they are for native species populations currently breeding in Denmark, but potentially emigrating due to climate change. We find that Danish citizens are willing to pay much more for the conservation of birds currently native to Denmark, than for bird species moving into the country – even when they are informed about the potential range shifts associated with climate change. The only exception is when immigrating species populations are under pressure at European level. Furthermore, people believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely heavily on public funding and hence on public support. Our results suggest that cross-country coordination of conservation efforts under climate change will be challenging in terms of achieving an appropriate balance between cost-effectiveness in adaptation and the concerns of a general public who seem mostly worried about protecting currently-native species. PMID:24984055

  10. Public support for conserving bird species runs counter to climate change impacts on their distributions.

    PubMed

    Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick; Fjeldså, Jon; Rahbek, Carsten; Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that global climate change will alter the spatiotemporal occurrences and abundances of many species at continental scales. This will have implications for efficient conservation of biodiversity. We investigate if the general public in Denmark are willing to pay for the preservation of birds potentially immigrating and establishing breeding populations due to climate change to the same extent that they are for native species populations currently breeding in Denmark, but potentially emigrating due to climate change. We find that Danish citizens are willing to pay much more for the conservation of birds currently native to Denmark, than for bird species moving into the country--even when they are informed about the potential range shifts associated with climate change. The only exception is when immigrating species populations are under pressure at European level. Furthermore, people believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely heavily on public funding and hence on public support. Our results suggest that cross-country coordination of conservation efforts under climate change will be challenging in terms of achieving an appropriate balance between cost-effectiveness in adaptation and the concerns of a general public who seem mostly worried about protecting currently-native species.

  11. Creating a Library of Climate Change Education Resources for Audiences in the Southeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carroll, J.; McNeal, K. S.; Williams, C. C.; Paz, J. O.; Cho, H. "; Nair, U. S.; Geroux, J.; Guthrie, C.; Wright, K.; Hill, J.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast and promoting scientifically accurate, formal educational resources for the K-12 classroom audience, as well as informal educational resources for audiences such as agriculture, education, leisure, and religious organizations, to name a few. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with the National Geographic Alliances, Departments of Education, and Mississippi Environmental Education Alliance, among others, to determine an effective strategic plan for reaching K-12 audiences. One goal in the strategic plan is to create a catalog of climate change education resources that are aligned to state standards in the SE. Eighty-seven resources from the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (http://cleanet.org) have been aligned with the state education standards for grades six through twelve in the southeast, beginning with science in Mississippi and expanding to include science and math in the remaining SE states. The criteria for aligning the existing resources includes: matching key terms, topics, and lesson activities with the content strands and essential skills included in the state science framework. By developing a searchable database containing climate resources already aligned with state standards, CLiPSE will have made these resources more appealing to educators in the SE, increasing the likelihood of resources being implemented in the classroom. The CLiPSE Climate Science Team has also created an inventory of scientifically sound, informal resources, which will be available for dispersion to appropriate audiences and communities. Cataloged resources, both formal and informal, grouped by a variety of means, to include audience, grade level, and resource

  12. Conservation practices and their potential to mitigate climate change

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The resilience of agricultural systems to climate change is dependent on the ability of the soil to capture and supply water to the plant at critical times in order to overcome the potential negative impacts of rising temperature. Climate change will occur as not only changes in the mean values of t...

  13. Projecting Urban Water Demand in California: Effects of Climate, Demographics, Technology, Conservation, and Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heberger, M. G.; Christian-Smith, J.

    2010-12-01

    California's growing population is increasingly urban, with 98% of its 38 million people currently living in cities and suburbs. The state has added an estimated 4.5 million people since 2000, with Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento among the 12 fastest-growing cities in the United States. While agriculture continues to use the majority of the state's water supply, urban water demand is growing rapidly and straining available supplies. Warming due to climate change is causing increases in water demand for landscape irrigation and commercial and industrial cooling. We have developed an easy-to-use planning tool to create spatial and temporal forecasts of future urban water demand out to the year 2100. It allows the user to estimate future water demand under a number of scenarios of climate change and demographic change. We use downscaled climate model output to estimate landscape and cooling water demand for each decade from 1950 to 2100 (Maurer and Hidalgo 2007). Planners can use the model to estimate the water-use impacts of urban growth and future land use, as well as water conservation programs and regulations. One may also examine economic effects such as changes in water prices or rate structures. The model includes the effects of building codes, plumbing and appliance standards in bringing about "passive savings" over time. Our modeling work to date suggests that current conservation strategies and efficiency gains already underway in California will increase urban water-use efficiency over the next two decades. While per-capita water use decreases, overall demand is likely to increase due to population growth. Under current policies and trends, statewide urban water demand may increase from 9 million acre-feet in 2005 (11 billion m3) to 12 maf (15 billion m3) in 2050. Implementing aggressive conservation strategies allows for continued population growth without increasing water use. This type of scenario-based planning aids water planners and managers in

  14. Strategies for conserving forest genetic resources in the face of climate change

    Treesearch

    John Bradley St. Clair; Glenn Thomas. Howe

    2011-01-01

    Conservation of genetic diversity is important for continued evolution of populations to new environments, as well as continued availability of traits of interest in genetic improvement programs. Rapidly changing climates present new threats to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We can no longer assume that in situ reserves will continue to preserve existing...

  15. Conservation strategies to adapt to projected climate change impacts in Malawi

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    There is potential for climate change to have negative effects on agricultural production via extreme events (Pruski and Nearing, 2002b; Zhang et al., 2012; Walthall 2012), and there is a need to implement conservation practices for climate change adaptation (Delgado et al. 2011; 2013). Recent repo...

  16. Adaptation approaches for conserving ecosystems services and biodiversity in dynamic landscapes caused by climate change

    Treesearch

    Oswald J. Schmitz; Anne M. Trainor

    2014-01-01

    Climate change stands to cause animal species to shift their geographic ranges. This will cause ecosystems to become reorganized across landscapes as species migrate into and out of specific locations with attendant impacts on values and services that ecosystems provide to humans. Conservation in an era of climate change needs to ensure that landscapes are resilient by...

  17. A climate adaptation strategy for conservation and management of yellowcedar in Alaska

    Treesearch

    Paul E. Hennon; Carol M. McKenzie; David D' Amore; Dustin T. Wittwer; Robin L. Mulvey; Melinda S. Lamb; Frances E. Biles; Rich C. Cronn

    2016-01-01

    A conservation and management strategy for yellow-cedar in Alaska is presented in the context of climate change. This document has four sections. Section 1 covers the ecology and silvics of yellow-cedar, as well as other background information. Section 2 outlines knowledge on the extensive mortality to yellow-cedar, including the role of climate. Section 3 describes...

  18. Climate change as an ecosystem architect: implications to rare plant ecology, conservation, and restoration

    Treesearch

    Constance I. Millar

    2003-01-01

    Recent advances in earth system sciences have revealed significant new information relevant to rare plant ecology and conservation. Analysis of climate change at high resolution with new and precise proxies of paleotemperatures reveals a picture over the past two million years of oscillatory climate change operating simultaneously at multiple timescales. Low-frequency...

  19. The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

    Treesearch

    Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

    2014-01-01

    Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

  20. A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

    Treesearch

    D.R. Magness; J.M. Morton; F. Huettmann; F.S. Chapin; A.D. McGuire

    2011-01-01

    Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological...

  1. Impacts of climate change on prioritizing conservation areas of hydrological ecosystem services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lien, Wan Yu; Lin, Yu Pin

    2015-04-01

    Ecosystem services (ESs) including hydrological services play important roles in our daily life and provide a lot of benefits for human beings from ecological systems. The systems and their services may be threatened by climate change from global to local scales. We herein developed a systematic approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological ecosystem services, such as water yield, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) retention, and soil retention in a watershed in Northern Taiwan. We first used an ecosystem service evaluation model, InVEST, to estimate the amount and spatial patterns of annual and monthly hydrological ecosystem services under historical weather data, and different climate change scenarios based on five GMSs. The monthly and annual spatiotemporal variations of the ESs were analyzed in this study. Finally, the multiple estimated ESs were considered as the protection conservation targets and regarded as the input data of the systematic conservation planning software, Zonation, to systematically prioritize reserve areas of the ESs under the climate change scenarios. The ES estimation results indicated that the increasing rainfall in wet season leads to the higher water yield and results in the higher sediment and nutrient export indirectly. The Zonation successfully fielded conservation priorities of the ESs. The conservation priorities of the ESs significantly varied spatially and monthly under the climate change scenarios. The ESs results also indicated that the areas where ESs values and conservation priorities with low resilience under climate change should be considered as high priority protected area to ensure the hydrological services in future. Our proposed approach is a novel systematic approach which can be applied to assess impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal variations of ESs as well as prioritize protected area of the ESs under various climate change scenarios. Keyword: climate change, ecosystem service

  2. Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate: a review of threats and implications for conservation planning in Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Rao, Madhu; Saw Htun; Platt, Steven G; Tizard, Robert; Poole, Colin; Than Myint; Watson, James E M

    2013-11-01

    High levels of species richness and endemism make Myanmar a regional priority for conservation. However, decades of economic and political sanctions have resulted in low conservation investment to effectively tackle threats to biodiversity. Recent sweeping political reforms have placed Myanmar on the fast track to economic development-the expectation is increased economic investments focused on the exploitation of the country's rich, and relatively intact, natural resources. Within a context of weak regulatory capacity and inadequate environmental safeguards, rapid economic development is likely to have far-reaching negative implications for already threatened biodiversity and natural-resource-dependent human communities. Climate change will further exacerbate prevailing threats given Myanmar's high exposure and vulnerability. The aim of this review is to examine the implications of increased economic growth and a changing climate within the larger context of biodiversity conservation in Myanmar. We summarize conservation challenges, assess direct climatological impacts on biodiversity and conclude with recommendations for long-term adaptation approaches for biodiversity conservation.

  3. Fine- and coarse-filter conservation strategies in a time of climate change.

    PubMed

    Tingley, Morgan W; Darling, Emily S; Wilcove, David S

    2014-08-01

    As species adapt to a changing climate, so too must humans adapt to a new conservation landscape. Classical frameworks have distinguished between fine- and coarse-filter conservation strategies, focusing on conserving either the species or the landscapes, respectively, that together define extant biodiversity. Adapting this framework for climate change, conservationists are using fine-filter strategies to assess species vulnerability and prioritize the most vulnerable species for conservation actions. Coarse-filter strategies seek to conserve either key sites as determined by natural elements unaffected by climate change, or sites with low climate velocity that are expected to be refugia for climate-displaced species. Novel approaches combine coarse- and fine-scale approaches--for example, prioritizing species within pretargeted landscapes--and accommodate the difficult reality of multiple interacting stressors. By taking a diversified approach to conservation actions and decisions, conservationists can hedge against uncertainty, take advantage of new methods and information, and tailor actions to the unique needs and limitations of places, thereby ensuring that the biodiversity show will go on. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

  4. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    PubMed

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Systematic conservation planning for California avifauna in a climate change context (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stralberg, D.; Veloz, S.; Jongsomjit, D.; Gardali, T.; Howell, C.; Alexander, J.; Snyder, M. A.; Nur, N.; Ballard, G.; Wiens, J.

    2010-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate variables are often used to quantify and describe the spatial distributions of species under current and projected future climate conditions. While such models are generally developed at the continental level for the purpose of projecting broad-scale range shifts, there is an increasing demand for projections at scales fine enough to inform land-management decisions and conservation priorities. In a state as topographically complex as California, significant downscaling is required to adapt general circulation model (GCM) projections to conservation planning applications. We used 30-km regional climate model projections for 2038-2070 with boundary conditions taken from two GCMs under the SRES A2 (high CO2 emissions) scenario and downscaled them to an 800-m resolution based on PRISM climate normals for 1970-2000. Bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation normals were used to model the distributions of 203 California landbird taxa and to identify the species whose distributions are most likely to be affected by climate change. To synthesize the geographic implications of these individual SDM projections, we used the systematic conservation planning software Zonation to identify priority areas for avian conservation based on current and projected future distributions of all taxa. We used the California Bird Species of Special Concern framework to weight species according to conservation status, compared two prioritization algorithms, and incorporated SDM and climate model uncertainty into the prioritization exercise. The resulting areas of high conservation value were intersected with current protected areas to identify conservation gaps. Portions of the north and central coast were identified as consistent yet largely unprotected “hotspots” for current and future bird distributions. This approach illustrates how species distribution modeling, coupled with planning tools such as Zonation

  6. Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

    PubMed

    Ando, Amy W; Mallory, Mindy L

    2012-04-24

    Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.

  7. Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region

    PubMed Central

    Ando, Amy W.; Mallory, Mindy L.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit–cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change–induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area. PMID:22451914

  8. Sensitivity of modeled Cretaceous climate to insolation forcing created by varying Earth-Sun orbital relationships

    SciTech Connect

    Glancy, T.J. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Rhythmic sedimentation patterns observed within the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway, such as those in the Bridge Creek Limestone Member of the Greenhorn Limestone Formation exposed near Pueblo, Colorado, appear to be a response to episodic climate change. These climatic variations could, in turn, be forced by the periodic insolation change over the North American continent created by Milankovitch-scale Earth-Sun orbital relationships - eccentricity (100 kiloyears), obliquity (41 kiloyears) and precession of the equinox (23 kiloyears). To test the sensitivity of Cretaceous climate to changes in Milankovitch-scale insolation forcing, a set of seasonal simulations using maximum difference insolation forcing conditions was conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate Model using 100 MA Cretaceous paleogeography and paleotopography. Analysis showed statistically significant differences in surface temperature, precipitation, surface wind, storm track location, and upwelling occurred over many regions of the Cretaceous Earth, particularly in the summer and winter monsoon system. During Northern Hemisphere winter, differences in the position of storm passage over Cretaceous western North America under maximum difference insolation forcing conditions varies the precipitation received over the southern Western Interior Seaway at the location where the Bridge Creek Limestone Member rhythmic sedimentation was produced. Northern Hemisphere winter simulations removing all sea ice from the model showed little difference in the climatic effects observed over southwestern North America from the case with sea ice present. Additional simulations varying only the obliquity within the model suggest that the observed Bridge Creek Limestone Member rhythmic sedimentation patterns are controlled by climatic change produced by cyclic variation in the precession of the equinox and eccentricity insolation forcing.

  9. Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research.

    PubMed

    Parmesan, Camille; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Richardson, Anthony J; Schoeman, David S; Singer, Michael C

    2013-05-01

    There is increasing pressure from policymakers for ecologists to generate more detailed 'attribution' analyses aimed at quantitatively estimating relative contributions of different driving forces, including anthropogenic climate change (ACC), to observed biological changes. Here, we argue that this approach is not productive for ecological studies. Global meta-analyses of diverse species, regions and ecosystems have already given us 'very high confidence' [sensu Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] that ACC has impacted wild species in a general sense. Further, for well-studied species or systems, synthesis of experiments and models with long-term observations has given us similarly high confidence that they have been impacted by regional climate change (regardless of its cause). However, the role of greenhouse gases in driving these impacts has not been estimated quantitatively. Should this be an ecological research priority? We argue that development of quantitative ecological models for this purpose faces several impediments, particularly the existence of strong, non-additive interactions among different external factors. However, even with current understanding of impacts of global warming, there are myriad climate change adaptation options already developed in the literature that could be, and in fact are being, implemented now. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  10. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Langham, Gary M.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U.; Wilsey, Chad

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

  12. Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Langham, Gary M; Schuetz, Justin G; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.

  13. Private land manager capacity to conserve threatened communities under climate change.

    PubMed

    Raymond, C M; Lechner, A M; Lockwood, M; Carter, O; Harris, R M B; Gilfedder, L

    2015-08-15

    Major global changes in vegetation community distributions and ecosystem processes are expected as a result of climate change. In agricultural regions with a predominance of private land, biodiversity outcomes will depend on the adaptive capacity of individual land managers, as well as their willingness to engage with conservation programs and actions. Understanding adaptive capacity of landholders is critical for assessing future prospects for biodiversity conservation in privately owned agricultural landscapes globally, given projected climate change. This paper is the first to develop and apply a set of statistical methods (correlation and bionomial regression analyses) for combining social data on land manager adaptive capacity and factors associated with conservation program participation with biophysical data describing the current and projected-future distribution of climate suitable for vegetation communities. We apply these methods to the Tasmanian Midlands region of Tasmania, Australia and discuss the implications of the modelled results on conservation program strategy design in other contexts. We find that the integrated results can be used by environmental management organisations to design community engagement programs, and to tailor their messages to land managers with different capacity types and information behaviours. We encourage environmental agencies to target high capacity land managers by diffusing climate change and grassland management information through well respected conservation NGOs and farm system groups, and engage low capacity land managers via formalized mentoring programs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Different climate engineering methods would create different responses of the hydrological cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Hauke; Niemeier, Ulrike

    2017-04-01

    The authors had the extraordinary pleasure and privilege to work with the late Jon Egill Kristjansson within the IMPLICC project on "Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change" and in several subsequent projects on the same topic. One of the early and still valid concerns with respect to climate engineering via the manipulation of solar radiation was that such measures would not be able to reproduce some historical climate but create a new one. In particular the increase of global mean precipitation resulting from global warming would be overcompensated. In joint work with Jon Egill we have argued that the degree of overcompensation would depend on the specific method, among them the injection of sulfur into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, and marine cloud brightening through artificial emissions of sea salt. It would be larger for aerosol based methods than for space mirrors. Work lead by Jon Egill has then shown that the situation would be very different for cirrus cloud thinning. In this presentation we will revisit the arguments given in these studies.

  15. Creating an Eight-Member Ocean Reanalysis Ensemble for use by the Climate Modeling Community.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertz, J.; Potter, G. L.; Britzolakis, G.; Lee, T.; Carriere, L.; Li, J.; Shen, Y.; Schnase, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Research shows that ensemble-averaged ocean reanalysis generally outperform individual ocean reanalyses products. The ensemble average and spread provide useful information to evaluate climate models. This presentation describes an effort to produce estimates of ensemble average from several ocean reanalysis products that cover the 1979-2010 period. We highlight the challenges and methods used in horizontal regridding and vertically interpolating the monthly fields to a common 1x1 degree latitude-longitude grid and common depths. The ensemble-averaged and the regridded, interpolated data are published in the Collaborative REAnalysis Technical Environment Intercomparison Project (CREATE-IP) in the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). This work is a collaboration between NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) to develop ensemble average and spread products for monthly, 3-D potential temperature, salinity, and zonal and meridional velocities from eight ocean reanalyses: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC ), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ORA-S4), ECMWF Ocean ReAnalysis Pilot 5.0 (ORAP5.0), German Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO2), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Monthly Ensemble Means, NOAA Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) and Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation (MOVE) Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM-G2i).

  16. A review of climate-change adaptation strategies for wildlife management and biodiversity conservation.

    PubMed

    Mawdsley, Jonathan R; O'Malley, Robin; Ojima, Dennis S

    2009-10-01

    The scientific literature contains numerous descriptions of observed and potential effects of global climate change on species and ecosystems. In response to anticipated effects of climate change, conservation organizations and government agencies are developing "adaptation strategies" to facilitate the adjustment of human society and ecological systems to altered climate regimes. We reviewed the literature and climate-change adaptation plans that have been developed in United States, Canada, England, México, and South Africa and found 16 general adaptation strategies that relate directly to the conservation of biological diversity. These strategies can be grouped into four broad categories: land and water protection and management; direct species management; monitoring and planning; and law and policy. Tools for implementing these strategies are similar or identical to those already in use by conservationists worldwide (land and water conservation, ecological restoration, agrienvironment schemes, species translocation, captive propagation, monitoring, natural resource planning, and legislation/regulation). Although our review indicates natural resource managers already have many tools that can be used to address climate-change effects, managers will likely need to apply these tools in novel and innovative ways to meet the unprecedented challenges posed by climate change.

  17. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    PubMed

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

  18. Noah’s Ark Conservation Will Not Preserve Threatened Ecological Communities under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

    2015-01-01

    Background Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. Methods We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Results All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. Conclusions As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and

  19. Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    PubMed

    Gong, Minghao; Guan, Tianpei; Hou, Meng; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Tianyuan

    2017-01-01

    One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

  20. Noah's Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change.

    PubMed

    Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

    2015-01-01

    Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities

  1. Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation

    PubMed Central

    Rohr, Jason R.; Raffel, Thomas R.; Blaustein, Andrew R.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Paull, Sara H.; Young, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations. PMID:27293606

  2. Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Blaustein, Andrew R; Johnson, Pieter T J; Paull, Sara H; Young, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations.

  3. Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the “Global 200” ecoregions – a set of priority ecoregions designed to “achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems” – over the 21st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change. PMID:23359638

  4. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    PubMed

    Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st) century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  5. Accommodating species climate-forced dispersal and uncertainties in spatial conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Lemes, Priscila; Loyola, Rafael Dias

    2013-01-01

    Spatial conservation prioritization should seek to anticipate climate change impacts on biodiversity and to mitigate these impacts through the development of dynamic conservation plans. Here, we defined spatial priorities for the conservation of amphibians inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot that overcome the likely impacts of climate change on the distribution of this imperiled fauna. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 431 amphibian species both for current time and for the mid-point of a 30-year period spanning 2071-2099 (i.e. 2080). For modeling species' niches, we combined six modeling methods and three different climate models. We also quantified and mapped model uncertainties. Our consensus models forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in central and eastern Atlantic Forest, both for current time and for 2080. Most species had a significant range contraction (up to 72%) and 12% of species were projected to be regionally extinct. Most species would need to disperse because suitable climatic sites will change. Therefore, we identified a network of priority sites for conservation that minimizes the distance a given species would need to disperse because of changes in future habitat suitability (i.e. climate-forced dispersal) as well as uncertainties associated to ENMs. This network also maximized complementary species representation across currently established protected areas. Priority sites already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future suitable habitats for amphibians. Although we used the a top-ranked Biodiversity Hotspot and amphibians as a case study for illustrating our approach, our study may help developing more effective conservation strategies under climate change, especially when applied at different spatial scales, geographic regions, and taxonomic groups.

  6. Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Bagchi, Robert; Crosby, Mike; Huntley, Brian; Hole, David G; Butchart, Stuart H M; Collingham, Yvonne; Kalra, Mohit; Rajkumar, Jagadish; Rahmani, Asad; Pandey, Mitra; Gurung, Hum; Trai, Le Trong; Van Quang, Nguyen; Willis, Stephen G

    2013-04-01

    We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as 'extremely likely' for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many 'losers' as 'winners'. However, for no species was suitable climate 'extremely likely' to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35-69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as 'extremely likely' to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species

  7. Water management, purification, and conservation in arid climates. Volume 3: Water conservation

    SciTech Connect

    Goosen, M.F.A.; Shayya, W.H.

    1999-07-01

    Arid regions are already feeling the severe restraining effects of potable water shortages. In coming years, humid and sub-humid regions of the world will also have to face many of these same problems. In the future, serious conflicts may arise not because of a lack of oil, but due to water shortages. Are there solutions to these problems? Aside from increasing public awareness about the importance of water, society needs to take a three pronged approach: water needs to be effectively managed, it needs to be economically purified, and it needs to be conserved. Only by doing these three things in unison can they hope to alleviate the water problems faced by arid regions of the world. This book presents information valuable to seeking, finding and using current technologies to help solve these problems now. Volume 3 addresses aspects of water conservation and includes rainwater harvesting and wastewater reuse and reclamation.

  8. The climate adaptation programs and activities of the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative

    Treesearch

    Wendy L. Francis

    2011-01-01

    The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative (Y2Y) is an innovative transboundary effort to protect biodiversity and facilitate climate adaptation by linking large protected core areas through compatible land uses on matrix lands. The Y2Y organization acts as the keeper of the Y2Y vision and implements two interconnected programs - Science and Action, and Vision...

  9. Conservation practices to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted into the atmosphere by human activities have increased radiative forcing and caused an increase in the global mean temperature of approximately 0.74°C over the past century. In terms of soil conservation, expected consequences of future climate change include changes ...

  10. Climatic change and assisted migration: Strategic options for forest and conservation nurseries

    Treesearch

    Mary I. Williams; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2013-01-01

    In light of current studies (for example, Gray and Hamann 2012; Zhu and others 2012) that show climate will change faster than plants can adapt or migrate naturally, it begs the question, "What does this mean for forestry, specifically forest and conservation nurseries?" Growing trees that just survive may become more important than promoting fast growth...

  11. Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Tabor, Karyn; Williams, John W

    2010-03-01

    Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2 degrees x 2 degrees or coarser) are inadequate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic offsets between modeled representations and observations of present climates. We have downscaled future temperature and precipitation projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) CMIP3 multi-model data set to 10-minute resolution and debiased these simulations using the change-factor approach and observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). These downscaled data sets are available online and include monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, for 24 climate models and the A1B, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. This paper describes the downscaling method and compares the downscaled and native-resolution simulations. Sharp differences between the original and downscaled data sets are apparent at regional to continental scales, particularly for temperature in mountainous areas and in areas with substantial differences between observed and simulated 20th-century climatologies. Although these data sets in principle could be downscaled further, a key practical limitation is the density of observational networks, particularly for precipitation-related variables in tropical mountainous regions. These downscaled data sets can be used for a variety of climate-impact assessments, including assessments of 21st-century climate-change impacts on biodiversity and species distributions.

  12. Opportunities to Improve Urban and Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change Through Conservation of Green Space.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    The conservation of biotic communities in urbanized ecosystems is critical in light of heightened vulnerability due to climate change. Conservation of large open spaces around cities and smaller 'green' spaces within cities - such as forest patches and wetlands - has the capacity to diminish the vulnerability of human communities to higher temperatures, water shortages, increased flooding and other impacts of climate change. In addition, native species need to migrate to track their climate niches and the chances of successful migration will be increased if species have access to habitat throughout the landscape. Thus there is a strong rationale to do more conservation and restoration for both ecosystem and urban adaptation to climate change. Despite this alignment, planning efforts in the urban and ecosystem sectors are rarely done synergistically. As a result it is not clear how well plans will achieve biodiversity along with other ecosystem services goals. In this talk, I will discuss how urban adaptation planning can better align with ecosystem adaptation planning by drawing on research exploring sustainability plans and urban ecology in US cities, including work conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area by the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative (TBC3). This research shows that there are considerable opportunities for linking agendas across sectors in ways that could yield multiple benefits. There are however both social and ecological challenges. In some cases difficult choices will need to be made about which values and services are most important, or where in the landscape different values should be prioritized.

  13. Creating a climate that catalyses healthcare innovation in the United Kingdom - learning lessons from international innovators.

    PubMed

    Cresswell, Kathrin; Cunningham-Burley, Sarah; Sheikh, Aziz

    2017-01-25

    The United Kingdom (UK) lags behind other high-income countries in relation to technological innovation in healthcare. In order to inform UK strategy on how to catalyse innovation, we sought to understand what national strategies can help to promote a climate for innovation in healthcare settings by extracting lessons for the UK from international innovators. We undertook a series of qualitative semi-structured interviews with senior international innovators from a range of health related policy, care/service delivery, commercial and academic backgrounds. Thematic analysis helped to explore how different stakeholder groups could facilitate/inhibit innovation at individual, organisational, and wider societal levels. We conducted 14 interviews and found that a conducive climate for healthcare innovation comprised of national/regional strategies stimulating commercial competition, promoting public/private relationships, and providing central direction (e.g. incentives for adoption and regulation through standards) without being restrictive. Organisational attitudes with a willingness to experiment and to take risks were also seen as important, but a bottom-up approach to innovation, based on the identification of clinical need, was seen as a crucial first step to construct relevant national policies.  There is now a need to create mechanisms through which frontline National Health Service staff in relation can raise ideas/concerns and suggest opportunities for improvement, and then build national innovation environments that seek to address these needs. This should be accompanied by creating competitive health technology markets to stimulate a commercial environment that attracts high-quality health information technology experts and innovators working in partnership with staff and patients.

  14. Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.

    PubMed

    Porfirio, Luciana L; Harris, Rebecca M B; Lefroy, Edward C; Hugh, Sonia; Gould, Susan F; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel L; Mackey, Brendan

    2014-01-01

    Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

  15. Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Porfirio, Luciana L.; Harris, Rebecca M. B.; Lefroy, Edward C.; Hugh, Sonia; Gould, Susan F.; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Mackey, Brendan

    2014-01-01

    Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models. PMID:25420020

  16. Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation.

    PubMed

    Prieto-Torres, David A; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Santiago-Alarcon, Diego; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R

    2016-01-01

    Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate-change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem.

  17. Conserving the Stage: Climate Change and the Geophysical Underpinnings of Species Diversity

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Mark G.; Ferree, Charles E.

    2010-01-01

    Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R2 = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5–95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust

  18. Conserving the stage: climate change and the geophysical underpinnings of species diversity.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Mark G; Ferree, Charles E

    2010-07-14

    Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R(2) = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5-95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust

  19. Creating Protected Areas on Public Lands: Is There Room for Additional Conservation?

    PubMed Central

    Arriagada, Rodrigo A.; Echeverria, Cristian M.; Moya, Danisa E.

    2016-01-01

    Most evaluations of the effectiveness of PAs have relied on indirect estimates based on comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Such methods can be biased when protection is not randomly assigned. We add to the growing literature on the impact of PAs by answering the following research questions: What is the impact of Chilean PAs on deforestation which occurred between 1986 and 2011? How do estimates of the impact of PAs vary when using only public land as control units? We show that the characteristics of the areas in which protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. To satisfactorily estimate the effects of PAs, we use matching methods to define adequate control groups, but not as in previous research. We construct control groups using separately non-protected private areas and non-protected public lands. We find that PAs avoid deforestation when using unprotected private lands as valid controls, however results show no impact when the control group is based only on unprotected public land. Different land management regimes, and higher levels of enforcement inside public lands may reduce the opportunity to add additional conservation benefits when the national systems for PAs are based on the protection of previously unprotected public lands. Given that not all PAs are established to avoid deforestation, results also admit the potential for future studies to include other outcomes including forest degradation (not just deforestation), biodiversity, wildlife, primary forests (not forests in general), among others. PMID:26848856

  20. Creating Protected Areas on Public Lands: Is There Room for Additional Conservation?

    PubMed

    Arriagada, Rodrigo A; Echeverria, Cristian M; Moya, Danisa E

    2016-01-01

    Most evaluations of the effectiveness of PAs have relied on indirect estimates based on comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Such methods can be biased when protection is not randomly assigned. We add to the growing literature on the impact of PAs by answering the following research questions: What is the impact of Chilean PAs on deforestation which occurred between 1986 and 2011? How do estimates of the impact of PAs vary when using only public land as control units? We show that the characteristics of the areas in which protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. To satisfactorily estimate the effects of PAs, we use matching methods to define adequate control groups, but not as in previous research. We construct control groups using separately non-protected private areas and non-protected public lands. We find that PAs avoid deforestation when using unprotected private lands as valid controls, however results show no impact when the control group is based only on unprotected public land. Different land management regimes, and higher levels of enforcement inside public lands may reduce the opportunity to add additional conservation benefits when the national systems for PAs are based on the protection of previously unprotected public lands. Given that not all PAs are established to avoid deforestation, results also admit the potential for future studies to include other outcomes including forest degradation (not just deforestation), biodiversity, wildlife, primary forests (not forests in general), among others.

  1. Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

    PubMed

    Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

    2016-06-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  2. Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

    PubMed

    Dilts, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

    2016-06-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  3. Targeted conservation to safeguard a biodiversity hotspot from climate and land-cover change.

    PubMed

    Struebig, Matthew J; Wilting, Andreas; Gaveau, David L A; Meijaard, Erik; Smith, Robert J; Fischer, Manuela; Metcalfe, Kristian; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie

    2015-02-02

    Responses of biodiversity to changes in both land cover and climate are recognized [1] but still poorly understood [2]. This poses significant challenges for spatial planning as species could shift, contract, expand, or maintain their range inside or outside protected areas [2-4]. We examine this problem in Borneo, a global biodiversity hotspot [5], using spatial prioritization analyses that maximize species conservation under multiple environmental-change forecasts. Climate projections indicate that 11%-36% of Bornean mammal species will lose ≥ 30% of their habitat by 2080, and suitable ecological conditions will shift upslope for 23%-46%. Deforestation exacerbates this process, increasing the proportion of species facing comparable habitat loss to 30%-49%, a 2-fold increase on historical trends. Accommodating these distributional changes will require conserving land outside existing protected areas, but this may be less than anticipated from models incorporating deforestation alone because some species will colonize high-elevation reserves. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of upland reserves and that relatively small additions (16,000-28,000 km(2)) to the current conservation estate could provide substantial benefits to biodiversity facing changes to land cover and climate. On Borneo, much of this land is under forestry jurisdiction, warranting targeted conservation partnerships to safeguard biodiversity in an era of global change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Conservation in the context of climate change: practical guidelines for land protection at local scales.

    PubMed

    Ruddock, Kevin; August, Peter V; Damon, Christopher; Labash, Charles; Rubinoff, Pamela; Robadue, Donald

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect the composition of plant and animal communities in many habitats and geographic settings. This presents a dilemma for conservation programs--will the portfolio of protected lands we now have achieve a goal of conserving biodiversity in the future when the ecological communities occurring within them change? Climate change will significantly alter many plant communities, but the geophysical underpinnings of these landscapes, such as landform, elevation, soil, and geological properties, will largely remain the same. Studies show that extant landscapes with a diversity of geophysical characteristics support diverse plant and animal communities. Therefore, geophysically diverse landscapes will likely support diverse species assemblages in the future, although which species and communities will be present is not altogether clear. Following protocols advanced in studies spanning large regions, we developed a down-scaled, high spatial resolution measure of geophysical complexity based on Ecological Land Units (ELUs) and examined the relationship between plant species richness, ecological community richness, and ELU richness (number of different ELU types). We found that extant landscapes with high ELU richness had a greater variety of ecological community types and high species richness of trees, shrubs, and herbaceous plants. We developed a spatial representation of diverse ELU landscapes to inform local conservation practitioners, such as land trusts, of potential conservation targets that will likely support diverse faunas and floras despite the impact of climate change.

  5. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

    2017-06-01

    Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  6. Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  7. Conservation in the Context of Climate Change: Practical Guidelines for Land Protection at Local Scales

    PubMed Central

    Ruddock, Kevin; August, Peter V.; Damon, Christopher; LaBash, Charles; Rubinoff, Pamela; Robadue, Donald

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect the composition of plant and animal communities in many habitats and geographic settings. This presents a dilemma for conservation programs – will the portfolio of protected lands we now have achieve a goal of conserving biodiversity in the future when the ecological communities occurring within them change? Climate change will significantly alter many plant communities, but the geophysical underpinnings of these landscapes, such as landform, elevation, soil, and geological properties, will largely remain the same. Studies show that extant landscapes with a diversity of geophysical characteristics support diverse plant and animal communities. Therefore, geophysically diverse landscapes will likely support diverse species assemblages in the future, although which species and communities will be present is not altogether clear. Following protocols advanced in studies spanning large regions, we developed a down-scaled, high spatial resolution measure of geophysical complexity based on Ecological Land Units (ELUs) and examined the relationship between plant species richness, ecological community richness, and ELU richness (number of different ELU types). We found that extant landscapes with high ELU richness had a greater variety of ecological community types and high species richness of trees, shrubs, and herbaceous plants. We developed a spatial representation of diverse ELU landscapes to inform local conservation practitioners, such as land trusts, of potential conservation targets that will likely support diverse faunas and floras despite the impact of climate change. PMID:24278336

  8. Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

    2016-02-01

    Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate.

  9. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  10. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

    PubMed

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2016-06-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  11. Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks: Exploring the Connection.

    PubMed

    Dunlap, Riley E; Jacques, Peter J

    2013-06-01

    The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites.

  12. The Richter Scale of Reduction: decoupling management and climatic related drivers of water conservation behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rippy, Megan; Hemati, Azadeh; Grant, Stanley

    2016-04-01

    As global populations grow, cities in drought prone regions of the world such as South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and water security challenges. The management approaches geared towards addressing these challenges are diverse, and background climatic variability further complicates the story. Here we use Melbourne, a city of 4.3 million people in South East Australia that recently faced and overcame a > 10 year "Millennium" drought, as a test case for evaluating the relative importance of various management-related and climatic factors in driving reductions in municipal water consumption (>50% in 12 years). Our analysis suggests that Melbourne's declining municipal consumption cannot be explained by potable substitution alone, as reductions in municipal consumption were not matched by increased use of alternative sources (e.g., urban rain or recycled water). Savings from non revenue water (NRW) reduction (through leak reduction and improved metering) also fell short of the total savings achieved during the drought. In the final analysis, conservation behavior emerged as the dominant driver of municipal water savings, forming a so-called "Richter Scale of Reduction" with conservation saving ~10 fold more water than NRW reduction, which in turn saved ~10 fold more water than alternative water sources. We also used wavelet analysis to illustrate that conservation behavior responds to climate variability at a variety of frequencies (annual-decadal and longer) which correspond to perturbations that impact water system vulnerability and sustainability. Interestingly the shared power of climatic and conservation responses declined as the drought progressed, perhaps reflecting the adoption of more consistent conservation behavior as the drought became increasingly severe.

  13. Roles of Perceived Motivational Climates Created by Coach, Peer, and Parent on Dispositional Flow in Young Athletes.

    PubMed

    Çağlar, Emine; Aşçi, F Hülya; Uygurtaş, Murat

    2017-04-01

    We investigated the contribution of perceived motivational climates created by coach, peer, and parent on the dispositional flow experience of young athletes. Eighty-six female ( Mage = 14.24, SD = 1.38 years) and 134 male ( Mage = 16.28, SD = 1.17 years) athletes completed questionnaires of perceived motivational climates created by coach, peer, and parent and the Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Results of hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that perceived task-involving coach (β = .40, p < .001) and peer (β = .28, p < .002) motivational climates were the only significant predictors of dispositional flow. These findings suggest that task-involving motivational climates should be strengthened to increase experience of flow.

  14. Creating a Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) for science and conservation applications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, Cindy; Brock, John C.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Poppenga, Sandra; Gesch, Dean B.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Monica; Barras, John; Evans, Gayla A.; Gibbs, Ann

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is creating the Coastal National Elevation Database, an expanding set of topobathymetric elevation models that extend seamlessly across coastal regions of high societal or ecological significance in the United States that are undergoing rapid change or are threatened by inundation hazards. Topobathymetric elevation models are raster datasets useful for inundation prediction and other earth science applications, such as the development of sediment-transport and storm surge models. These topobathymetric elevation models are being constructed by the broad regional assimilation of numerous topographic and bathymetric datasets, and are intended to fulfill the pressing needs of decision makers establishing policies for hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness, coastal managers tasked with coastal planning compatible with predictions of inundation due to sea-level rise, and scientists investigating processes of coastal geomorphic change. A key priority of this coastal elevation mapping effort is to foster collaborative lidar acquisitions that meet the standards of the USGS National Geospatial Program's 3D Elevation Program, a nationwide initiative to systematically collect high-quality elevation data. The focus regions are located in highly dynamic environments, for example in areas subject to shoreline change, rapid wetland loss, hurricane impacts such as overwash and wave scouring, and/or human-induced changes to coastal topography.

  15. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  16. Adaptation Strategies of Soil and Water Conservation in Taiwan for Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng; Lin, Cheng-Yu; Hsieh, Ting-Ju

    2016-04-01

    Due to global climate change, the impact caused by extreme climate has become more and more compelling. In Taiwan, the total rainfall stays in the same level, but it brings along changes to rain types. The rainfall with high recurrence interval happens frequently, leading to soil loss of slope-land, and it may further result in flooding and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked at the second highest around the world. Moreover, third-fourth of Taiwan is slope-land, so the soil and water conservation is rather important. This study is based on the international trend analysis approach to review the related researches worldwide and 264 research projects in Taiwan. It indicates that under the pressure of extreme climate and social economic changes, it has higher possibility of slope-land to face the impacts from extreme rainfall events, and meanwhile, the carrying capacity of slope-land is decreasing. The experts' brainstorming meetings were held three times, and it concluded the current problems of soil and water conservation and the goal in 2025 for sustainable resources. Also, the 20-year weather data set was adopted to screen out 3 key watersheds with the potential of flooding (Puzih River Watershed), droughts (Xindian River Watershed), and sediment hazards (Chishan River Watershed) according to the moisture index, and further, to propose countermeasures in order to realize the goal in 2025, which is "regarding to climate and socioeconomic changes, it is based on multiple use to manage watershed resources for avoiding disasters and sustaining soil and water conservation." Keyword: Extreme climate, International trend analysis, Brainstorming, Key watershed

  17. Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Hawbaker, Todd J; Stewart, Susan I

    2009-06-01

    Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial

  18. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

    PubMed

    Sieck, Mungla; Ibisch, Pierre L; Moloney, Kirk A; Jeltsch, Florian

    2011-05-03

    Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that

  19. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is

  20. Evaluation of ecosystem services for good balance between climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, A.; Adachi, M.; Yamagata, Y.; Suzuki, R.; Saigusa, N.; Sekine, H.

    2011-12-01

    For appropriate decision making in ecosystem management for global warming prevention and biodiversity conservation, a reliable and practical method to evaluate ecosystem services is necessary. For this purpose, we are conducting a project focusing on the evaluation of ecosystem services with a financial support from the Ministry of Environment, Japan, during the period from 2011 to 2013. The project is titled "Development of a method for evaluation of ecosystem services aiming at trade-off mitigation between climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation" (Environmental Research Fund, No. F-1101) and jointly conducted through collaboration among: the National Institute for Environmental Studies, the Japan-Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, and Mitsubishi Research Institute. The objectives of the project include: (1) integration of observational data from field sites and satellites related to ecosystem functions, (2) development of a practical evaluation method of ecosystem services, and (3) contribution to mitigate conflicts between environmental mitigation options such as climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation. In this project, we have a couple of candidate sites in Asian region to conduct field studies including in situ observation of forest biomass, leaf area index, canopy structure, in conjunction with corresponding satellite observations. These data on functional traits will be related with important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and climate regulation, water supply, and genetic resource stemming from biodiversity.

  1. Practicing Conservation Agriculture to mitigate and adapt to Climate Change in Jordan.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khresat, Saeb

    2016-04-01

    Climate change scenarios indicate that Jordan and the Middle East could suffer from reduced agricultural productivity and water availability among other negative impacts. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6 °C by 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. The dominant form of agriculture system in Jordan is based on intensive tillage. This form of tillage has resulted in large losses of organic soil carbon, weaker soil structure, and cause compaction. It has negative effects on soil aeration, root development and water infiltration among other factors. There is a need to transform farming practices to conservation agriculture to sequester carbon so that climate change mitigation becomes an inherent property of future farming systems. Conservation Agriculture, a system avoiding or minimizing soil disturbance, combined with soil cover and crop diversification, is considered to be a sustainable production system that can also sequester carbon unlike tillage agriculture. Conservation agriculture promotes minimal disturbance of the soil by tillage (zero tillage), balanced application of chemical inputs and careful management of residues and wastes. This study was conducted to develop a clear understanding of the impacts and benefits of the two most common types of agriculture, traditional tillage agriculture and conservation agriculture with respect to their effects on land productivity and on soil carbon pools. The study results indicated that conservation agriculture contributed to the reduction of the farming systems' greenhouse gas emissions and enhance its role as carbon sinks. Also, it was found that by shifting to conservation agriculture labor cost needed for

  2. Conserving energy in physics and society: Creating an integrated model of energy and the second law of thermodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daane, Abigail R.; Vokos, Stamatis; Scherr, Rachel E.

    2013-01-01

    The second law of thermodynamics is typically not a central focus either in introductory university physics textbooks or in national standards for secondary education. However, the second law is a key part of a strong conceptual model of energy, especially for connecting energy conservation to energy degradation and the irreversibility of processes. We present the beginnings of a conceptual model of the second law as it relates to energy, with the aim of creating models and representations that link energy degradation, the second law, and entropy in a meaningful way for learners analyzing real-life energy scenarios. Our goal is to develop tools for use with elementary and secondary teachers and secondary and university students.

  3. Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Schloss, Carrie A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Larson, Eric R.; Papendick, Hilary L.; Case, Michael J.; Evans, Daniel M.; DeLap, Jack H.; Langdon, Jesse G. R.; Hall, Sonia A.; McRae, Brad H.

    2011-01-01

    Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts. PMID:22174897

  4. Women of Color Teaching Students of Color: Creating an Effective Classroom Climate through Caring, Challenging, and Consulting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saavedra, Dora E.; Saavedra, Marisa L.

    2007-01-01

    Being a Hispanic female faculty member in South Texas can be a challenge. This chapter discusses three pedagogical tools (caring, challenging, and consulting) that we use to create a classroom climate that enhances Hispanic students' success by engaging and motivating them to succeed in one of the poorest areas of the country.

  5. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

    2014-06-01

    There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John

  6. The relation between perceived parent-created sport climate and competitive male youth hockey players' good and poor sport behaviors.

    PubMed

    LaVoi, Nicole M; Stellino, Megan Babkes

    2008-09-01

    The authors examined achievement goal orientation (J. L. Duda & J. G. Nicholls, 1992), parental influence (M. L. Babkes & M. R. Weiss, 1999), and the parent-initiated motivational climate (S. A. White, 1996, 1998) in combination to broaden understanding of competitive male youth hockey players' (N = 259) perceptions of the parent-created sport climate and its relation to their self-reported good and poor sport behaviors (GPSB). Exploratory factor analysis revealed a multidimensional measure of GPSB. Multiple regression analyses indicated that athletes' GPSB were significantly predicted by different forms of parental influence. Canonical correlations revealed a complex picture of the contributions of goal orientation and the parent-created sport climate on boys' GPSB in youth hockey. Results expand knowledge of the influence that parents have in youth sport and emphasize the importance of understanding how children's interpretations of parental beliefs and behaviors affect their choices to engage in good and poor sport behaviors.

  7. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  8. Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.

    PubMed

    Greenwood, Owen; Mossman, Hannah L; Suggitt, Andrew J; Curtis, Robin J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2016-06-01

    Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications. The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear

  9. Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Mills, Morena; Nicol, Sam; Wells, Jessie A; Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J M; Runge, Michael C; Possingham, Hugh P; Madden, Eve McDonald

    2014-06-01

    Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. A Comparison of Players' and Coaches' Perceptions of the Coach-Created Motivational Climate within Youth Soccer Teams.

    PubMed

    Møllerløkken, Nina Elise; Lorås, Håvard; Pedersen, Arve Vorland

    2017-01-01

    The coach-created motivational climate within youth sports teams has been shown to be of great importance for the quality of youths' sports experiences as well as their motivation for continuing or discontinuing sport participation. While the player's perspective on motivational climates has been studied extensively, the coach's perspective has received considerably less attention. Thus, little is known about the concordance of perceptions of the motivational climate between coaches and their players, or the lack thereof. The purpose of the present study was to directly compare players' and coaches' perceptions of the motivational climate within their respective teams. To this end, 256 male and female soccer players (15-17 years of age) from 17 different teams and their coaches (n = 29) responded to the Perceived Motivational Climate in Sports Questionnaire-2 (PMCSQ-2). The study design included responses from both coaches and players to the same questionnaire, and both groups were aware of the other part's participation. Statistical analyses revealed significant differences between players' and coaches' perceptions of the motivational climate. Specifically, players of both sexes perceived the motivational climate to be significantly more performance-oriented and significantly less mastery-oriented compared with the coaches. These findings may advance our understanding of the coach-athlete relationship, and may be of importance for understanding players' motivation for persistence or discontinuation of the sport.

  11. A Comparison of Players’ and Coaches’ Perceptions of the Coach-Created Motivational Climate within Youth Soccer Teams

    PubMed Central

    Møllerløkken, Nina Elise; Lorås, Håvard; Pedersen, Arve Vorland

    2017-01-01

    The coach-created motivational climate within youth sports teams has been shown to be of great importance for the quality of youths’ sports experiences as well as their motivation for continuing or discontinuing sport participation. While the player’s perspective on motivational climates has been studied extensively, the coach’s perspective has received considerably less attention. Thus, little is known about the concordance of perceptions of the motivational climate between coaches and their players, or the lack thereof. The purpose of the present study was to directly compare players’ and coaches’ perceptions of the motivational climate within their respective teams. To this end, 256 male and female soccer players (15–17 years of age) from 17 different teams and their coaches (n = 29) responded to the Perceived Motivational Climate in Sports Questionnaire-2 (PMCSQ-2). The study design included responses from both coaches and players to the same questionnaire, and both groups were aware of the other part’s participation. Statistical analyses revealed significant differences between players’ and coaches’ perceptions of the motivational climate. Specifically, players of both sexes perceived the motivational climate to be significantly more performance-oriented and significantly less mastery-oriented compared with the coaches. These findings may advance our understanding of the coach-athlete relationship, and may be of importance for understanding players’ motivation for persistence or discontinuation of the sport. PMID:28203217

  12. On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change

    PubMed Central

    Urban, Mark C.; Tewksbury, Josh J.; Sheldon, Kimberly S.

    2012-01-01

    Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences. PMID:22217718

  13. On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change.

    PubMed

    Urban, Mark C; Tewksbury, Josh J; Sheldon, Kimberly S

    2012-05-22

    Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called 'no-analogue' communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.

  14. Creating Learning Experiences that Promote Informal Science Education: Designing Conservation-Focused Interactive Zoo Exhibits through Action Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalenda, Peter

    Research on exhibit design over the past twenty years has started to identify many different methods to increase the learning that occurs in informal education environments. This study utilized relevant research on exhibit design to create and study the effectiveness of a mobile interactive exhibit at the Seneca Park Zoo that promotes socialization, engagement in science, and conservation-related practices among guests. This study will serve as one component of a major redesign project at the Seneca Park Zoo for their Rocky Coasts exhibit. This action research study targeted the following question, "How can interactive exhibits be designed to promote socialization, engagement in science, and real-world conservation-related practices (RCPs) among zoo guests?" Specific research questions included: 1. In what ways did guests engage with the exhibit? 2. In what ways were guests impacted by the exhibit? a) What evidence exists, if any, of guests learning science content from the exhibit? b) What evidence exists, if any, of guests being emotionally affected by the exhibit? c) What evidence exists, if any, of guests changing their RCPs after visiting the exhibit? Data were collected through zoo guest surveys completed by zoo guests comparing multiple exhibits, interviews with guests before and after they used the prototype exhibit, observations and audio recordings of guests using the prototype exhibit, and follow-up phone interviews with guests who volunteered to participate. Data were analyzed collaboratively with members of the zoo's exhibit Redesign Team using grounded theory qualitative data analysis techniques to find patterns and trends among data. Initial findings from data analysis were used to develop shifts in the exhibit in order to increase visitor engagement and learning. This process continued for two full action research spirals, which resulted in three iterations of the prototype exhibit. The overall findings of this study highlight the ways in which

  15. Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern

    PubMed Central

    Virkkala, Raimo; Pöyry, Juha; Heikkinen, Risto K; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Valkama, Jari

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, posing increasing pressures on species to adapt in situ or shift their ranges. A protected area network is one of the main instruments to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. Importantly, protected area networks might be expected to enhance the resilience of regional populations of species of conservation concern, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant amount of protected habitat compared to unprotected landscapes. Based on national bird atlases compiled in 1974–1989 and 2006–2010, this study examines the recent range shifts in 90 forest, mire, marshland, and Arctic mountain heath bird species of conservation concern in Finland, as well as the changes in their species richness in protected versus unprotected areas. The trends emerging from the atlas data comparisons were also related to the earlier study dealing with predictions of distributional changes for these species for the time slice of 2051–2080, developed using bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Our results suggest that the observed changes in bird distributions are in the same direction as the BEM-based predictions, resulting in a decrease in species richness of mire and Arctic mountain heath species and an increase in marshland species. The patterns of changes in species richness between the two time slices are in general parallel in protected and unprotected areas. However, importantly, protected areas maintained a higher level of species richness than unprotected areas. This finding provides support for the significance and resilience provision of protected area networks in preserving species of conservation concern under climate change. PMID:25247057

  16. Entangled judgments: expert preferences for adapting biodiversity conservation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Hagerman, Shannon M; Satterfield, Terre

    2013-11-15

    A major challenge facing conservation experts is how to adapt biodiversity planning and practice to the impacts of climate change. To date, most commonly advocated adaptation actions mirror conventional approaches (e.g. protected areas) despite decades of concern regarding their efficacy and widespread discussion of less conventional, interventionist actions. This survey of 160 experts (scientists and practitioners with specialized knowledge of the implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation) seeks to explain this deep incongruity. Specifically, we quantify current preferences for a diverse set of adaptation actions, and examine the choice logics that underpin them. We find near unanimous agreement in principle with the need for extensive active management and restoration interventions given climate change. However, when interventionist actions are provided as options alongside conventional actions, experts overwhelming prefer the latter. Four hypotheses, developed by linking the conservation adaptation literature with that of preference formation and risk and decision making, explore enduring preferences for conventional actions. They are (1) judged most ecologically effective, least risky and best understood; (2) linked with pro-ecological worldviews, marked by positive affective feelings, and an aversion to the hubris of managing nature; (3) a function of trust in biodiversity governance; and/or (4) driven by demographic factors such as gender. Overall, we find that experts prefer conventional over unconventional actions because they are viewed as relatively more effective and less risky from an ecological point of view, and because they are linked with positive affect ratings, and worldviews that are strongly pro-ecological. We discuss the roles of value-based and affective cues in shaping policy outcomes for adaptation specifically, and sustainable resource management more broadly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mills, Morena; Nicol, Samuel; Wells, Jessie A.; Lahoz-Monfort, José J.; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J. M.; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; McDonald Madden, Eve

    2014-01-01

    Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.

  18. Conservation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

    This set of teaching aids consists of seven Audubon Nature Bulletins, providing the teacher and student with informational reading on various topics in conservation. The bulletins have these titles: Plants as Makers of Soil, Water Pollution Control, The Ground Water Table, Conservation--To Keep This Earth Habitable, Our Threatened Air Supply,…

  19. Conservation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

    This set of teaching aids consists of seven Audubon Nature Bulletins, providing the teacher and student with informational reading on various topics in conservation. The bulletins have these titles: Plants as Makers of Soil, Water Pollution Control, The Ground Water Table, Conservation--To Keep This Earth Habitable, Our Threatened Air Supply,…

  20. Agreed but not preferred: expert views on taboo options for biodiversity conservation, given climate change.

    PubMed

    Hagerman, Shannon M; Satterfield, Terre

    2014-04-01

    Recent research indicates increasing openness among conservation experts toward a set of previously controversial proposals for biodiversity protection. These include actions such as assisted migration, and the application of climate-change-informed triage principles for decision-making (e.g., forgoing attention to target species deemed no longer viable). Little is known however, about the levels of expert agreement across different conservation adaptation actions, or the preferences that may come to shape policy recommendations. In this paper, we report findings from a web-based survey of biodiversity experts that assessed: (1) perceived risks of climate change (and other drivers) to biodiversity, (2) relative importance of different conservation goals, (3) levels of agreement/disagreement with the potential necessity of unconventional-taboo actions and approaches including affective evaluations of these, (4) preferences regarding the most important adaptation action for biodiversity, and (5) perceived barriers and strategic considerations regarding implementing adaptation initiatives. We found widespread agreement with a set of previously contentious approaches and actions, including the need for frameworks for prioritization and decision-making that take expected losses and emerging novel ecosystems into consideration. Simultaneously, this survey found enduring preferences for conventional actions (such as protected areas) as the most important policy action, and negative affective responses toward more interventionist proposals. We argue that expert views are converging on agreement across a set of taboo components in ways that differ from earlier published positions, and that these views are tempered by preferences for existing conventional actions and discomfort toward interventionist options. We discuss these findings in the context of anticipating some of the likely contours of future conservation debates. Lastly, we underscore the critical need for

  1. Assessing ecosystem service provision under climate change to support conservation and development planning in Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Mandle, Lisa; Wolny, Stacie; Bhagabati, Nirmal; Helsingen, Hanna; Hamel, Perrine; Bartlett, Ryan; Dixon, Adam; Horton, Radley; Lesk, Corey; Manley, Danielle; De Mel, Manishka; Bader, Daniel; Nay Won Myint, Sai; Myint, Win; Su Mon, Myat

    2017-01-01

    Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flow-under current and future climate conditions-is especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the country's people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies.

  2. Assessing ecosystem service provision under climate change to support conservation and development planning in Myanmar

    PubMed Central

    Wolny, Stacie; Bhagabati, Nirmal; Helsingen, Hanna; Hamel, Perrine; Bartlett, Ryan; Dixon, Adam; Horton, Radley; Lesk, Corey; Manley, Danielle; De Mel, Manishka; Bader, Daniel; Nay Won Myint, Sai; Myint, Win; Su Mon, Myat

    2017-01-01

    Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flow–under current and future climate conditions–is especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the country’s people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies. PMID:28934282

  3. Waterfowl conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: confronting the complexities of climate change.

    PubMed

    Niemuth, Neal D; Fleming, Kathleen K; Reynolds, Ronald E

    2014-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974-2013) and July (1974-2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future

  4. Waterfowl Conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: Confronting the Complexities of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Niemuth, Neal D.; Fleming, Kathleen K.; Reynolds, Ronald E.

    2014-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974–2013) and July (1974–2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide

  5. Creating Impact Functions to Estimate the Domestic Effects of Global Climate Action

    EPA Science Inventory

    Quantifying and monetizing the impacts of climate change can be challenging due to the complexity of impacts, availability of data, variability across geographic and temporal time scales, sources of uncertainty, and computational constraints. Recent advancements in using consist...

  6. Local Climate and Energy Program Model Design Guide: Enhancing Value and Creating Lasting Programs

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This guide draws on the experience and examples of Climate Showcase Communities as they developed innovative models for programs that could be financially viable over the long term and replicated in other communities.

  7. Creating Impact Functions to Estimate the Domestic Effects of Global Climate Action

    EPA Science Inventory

    Quantifying and monetizing the impacts of climate change can be challenging due to the complexity of impacts, availability of data, variability across geographic and temporal time scales, sources of uncertainty, and computational constraints. Recent advancements in using consist...

  8. Local Climate and Energy Program Model Design Guide: Enhancing Value and Creating Lasting Programs

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This guide draws on the experience and examples of Climate Showcase Communities as they developed innovative models for programs that could be financially viable over the long term and replicated in other communities.

  9. Climate change and air pollution jointly creating nightmare for tourism industry.

    PubMed

    Sajjad, Faiza; Noreen, Umara; Zaman, Khalid

    2014-11-01

    The objective of the study is to examine the long-run and causal relationship between climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride), air pollution (i.e., methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions), and tourism development indicators (i.e., international tourism receipts, international tourism expenditures, natural resource depletion, and net forest depletion) in the World's largest regions. The aggregate data is used for robust analysis in the South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific regions, over a period of 1975-2012. The results show that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and natural resource depletion. The impact is evident, as we have seen the systematic eroding of tourism industry, due to severe changes in climate and increasing strain of air pollution. There are several channels of cause-effect relationship between the climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World's region. The study confirms the unidirectional, bidirectional, and causality independent relationship between climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World. It is conclusive that tourism industry is facing all time bigger challenges of reduce investment, less resources, and minor importance from the government agencies because of the two broad challenges, i.e., climate change and air pollution, putting them in a dismal state.

  10. First Steps Toward a Quality of Climate Finance Scorecard (QUODA-CF): Creating a Comparative Index to Assess International Climate Finance Contributions

    SciTech Connect

    Sierra, Katherine; Roberts, Timmons; de Nevers, Michele; Langley, Claire; Smith, Cory

    2013-06-15

    Are climate finance contributor countries, multilateral aid agencies and specialized funds using widely accepted best practices in foreign assistance? How is it possible to measure and compare international climate finance contributions when there are as yet no established metrics or agreed definitions of the quality of climate finance? As a subjective metric, quality can mean different things to different stakeholders, while of donor countries, recipients and institutional actors may place quality across a broad spectrum of objectives. This subjectivity makes the assessment of the quality of climate finance contributions a useful and necessary exercise, but one that has many challenges. This work seeks to enhance the development of common definitions and metrics of the quality of climate finance, to understand what we can about those areas where climate finance information is available and shine a light on the areas where there is a severe dearth of data. Allowing for comparisons of the use of best practices across funding institutions in the climate sector could begin a process of benchmarking performance, fostering learning across institutions and driving improvements when incorporated in internal evaluation protocols of those institutions. In the medium term, this kind of benchmarking and transparency could support fundraising in contributor countries and help build trust with recipient countries. As a feasibility study, this paper attempts to outline the importance of assessing international climate finance contributions while describing the difficulties in arriving at universally agreed measurements and indicators for assessment. In many cases, data are neither readily available nor complete, and there is no consensus on what should be included. A number of indicators are proposed in this study as a starting point with which to analyze voluntary contributions, but in some cases their methodologies are not complete, and further research is required for a

  11. Model-based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Wan, Jizhong; Wang, Chunjing; Yu, Jinghua; Nie, Siming; Han, Shijie; Zu, Yuangang; Chen, Changmei; Yuan, Shusheng; Wang, Qinggui

    2014-07-01

    Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate

  12. Model-based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Jizhong; Wang, Chunjing; Yu, Jinghua; Nie, Siming; Han, Shijie; Zu, Yuangang; Chen, Changmei; Yuan, Shusheng; Wang, Qinggui

    2014-01-01

    Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate

  13. Climate Change and its Impacts on Tourism and Livelihood in Manaslu Conservation Area, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    K C, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Hindukush Himalayan region including Nepal, a country reliant on tourism, is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, there are considerable gaps in research regarding tourism, livelihood and climate change in Nepal. The present research assesses the impact of climate change on tourism and livelihood in the Manaslu Conservation Area (MCA) of Nepal. Seventy-six households were interviewed followed by three focus group discussions and five key informant interviews. The empirical data collected at the site are complemented by secondary scientific data on climate and tourism. Correlation, regression, descriptive and graphical analysis was carried out for the presentation and analysis of data. Local people perceived that temperature and rainfall have been increasing in the study site as a result of climate change. It was also verified by the observed scientific data of temperature and precipitation. Socioeconomic variables such as marital status, size of household, education and landholding status had positive effect on tourism participation while livestock-holding status and occupation of the household had negative effect on tourism participation. Number of visitors is increasing in MCA in recent years, and tourism participation is helping local people to earn more money and improve their living standard. Till the date, there is positive impact of climate change on tourism sector in the study area. But, unfavorable weather change phenomena, intense rainfall and snowfall, melting of snow, occurrence of hydrological and climatic hazards and increase in temperature may have adverse impact on the tourism and livelihood in the mountainous area. Such type of adverse impact of climate change and tourism is already experienced in the case of Annapurna region and Mt. Everest region as tourist were trapped and affected by unfavorable weather change phenomena. In response to gradually warming temperature and decreasing snowfall, there seems an urgent need for

  14. Hydropower Licensing as a Bridge between Climate Science and Applications: Creating Actionable Science for Regulatory Decisionmaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Walker, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    The Integrated Licensing Process (ILP) of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is an example of an existing regulatory process that has the capacity to bridge the gap between science and decision making by clearly delineating existing science, the climate-regulatory nexus, and additional scientific work needed to inform licensing or relicensing of non-federal hydropower projects. In a parallel, but interacting set of legal and regulatory processes, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) must conduct analyses based on the best available science in order to implement the requirements of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the Magnuson-Stevens Act, and NEPA, and to develop terms and conditions to protect fisheries for the 30-50 year term of the license and the longer life of the project itself. Therefore, NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its own mandates to protect anadromous fish, protected species and habitat. Federal Executive Order (EO) #13693 on climate change sustainability require use of climate risks in planning, also recommended in NOAA's own guidance on implementing ESA, and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) guidance on implementing NEPA; however, as an independent agency FERC is not subject to that EO. In the past, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating, among other reasons, that climate science is `too uncertain,' and therefore not actionable. Thus, in order for NMFS to get the information needed for its own decision process, NOAA must first persuade FERC that the science is actionable. This presentation will describe our experiences in a multi-year effort by an interdisciplinary team of climate and fishery scientists to develop acceptable climate study requests that address FERC's concerns about uncertainty, for the Susitna-Watana project on Alaska's Susitna River, the LaGrange Project on the Tuolumne R. in California, and the Hiram

  15. Dealing with Drought: Decoupling Climatic and Management-Related Drivers of Water Conservation Behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemati, A.; Rippy, M.; Grant, S. B.

    2015-12-01

    As global populations grow, cities in drought prone regions of the world such as California and South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and water security challenges. The management approaches geared towards addressing these challenges are diverse. Given the myriad of possible approaches and the tendency to apply them in combination, successful management actions can be difficult to identify. Background climactic variability further complicates the story, making transfer of management lessons from one drought stressed region to another difficult. Here we use Melbourne, a city of 4.3 million people in South East Australia that recently faced and overcame a > 10 year "Millennium" drought, as a test case for evaluating the relative importance of various management-related and climactic factors in driving reductions in municipal water consumption (~60% in 12 years). Our analysis suggests that Melbourne's declining municipal consumption cannot be explained by potable substitution alone, as reductions in municipal consumption were not matched by increased use of alternative sources (e.g., urban rain or recycled water). Thus, water conservation behavior (not source switching) may be responsible for the majority of demand reduction in Melbourne. Interestingly, while voluntary or mandatory water restrictions appear to have substantially altered the rate of change of consumption near the end of Melbourne's Millennium drought (e.g., forcing a period of intense conservation), overall conservation behavior precedes these restrictions. This suggests that other rapidly implemented (and hither too unquantified) management approaches such as advertising or newspapers may have driven water conservation behavior early in the drought. Climatic factors, particularly precipitation may also have influenced conservation behavior; changes in precipitation were significantly positively correlated with changes in water consumption at a lag of 18 months. Similar

  16. Use of land facets to plan for climate change: conserving the arenas, not the actors.

    PubMed

    Beier, Paul; Brost, Brian

    2010-06-01

    Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human-caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets-recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes-and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse-filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context-sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k-means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land-facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data-rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.

  17. Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

    PubMed

    Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

    2017-11-15

    Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal

  18. Managing climate change in conservation practice: an exploration of the science-management interface in beech forest management.

    PubMed

    de Koning, Jessica; Turnhout, Esther; Winkel, Georg; Blondet, Marieke; Borras, Lars; Ferranti, Francesca; Geitzenauer, Maria; Sotirov, Metodi; Jump, Alistair

    Scientific studies reveal significant consequences of climate change for nature, from ecosystems to individual species. Such studies are important factors in policy decisions on forest conservation and management in Europe. However, while research has shown that climate change research start to impact on European conservation policies like Natura 2000, climate change information has yet to translate into management practices. This article contributes to the on-going debates about science-society relations and knowledge utilization by exploring and analysing the interface between scientific knowledge and forest management practice. We focus specifically on climate change debates in conservation policy and on how managers of forest areas in Europe perceive and use climate change ecology. Our findings show that forest managers do not necessarily deny the potential importance of climate change for their management practices, at least in the future, but have reservations about the current usefulness of available knowledge for their own areas and circumstances. This suggests that the science-management interface is not as politicized as current policy debates about climate change and that the use of climate change ecology is situated in practice. We conclude the article by discussing what forms of knowledge may enable responsible and future oriented management in practice focusing specifically on the role of reflexive experimentation and monitoring.

  19. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Philip D.; Harpham, Colin; Troccoli, Alberto; Gschwind, Benoit; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien; Goodess, Clare M.; Dorling, Stephen

    2017-07-01

    The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979-2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from climate.copernicus.eu" target="_blank">ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparing initial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields.

  20. Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change.

    PubMed

    Hu, Junhua; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km(2), which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data.

  1. Unveiling the Conservation Biogeography of a Data-Deficient Endangered Bird Species under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Junhua; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km2, which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data. PMID:24404169

  2. How do we create a climate literate society? A review of Climate Literacy essential principles and fundamental concepts that ensure climate literate citizens and students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niepold, F.

    2008-05-01

    Through a partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and AAAS Project 2061 and other partners we have collaborated to define climate literacy and develop weather and climate benchmarks for science literacy. The newly developed and revised national weather and climate science education standards were published in March of 2007 in the AAAS Project 2061 Atlas for Science Literacy volume II. This session will present the results of these projects as well as the publication of "An Abbreviated Guide for Teaching Climate Change." The Climate Literacy effort is worked in parallel with the Ocean Literacy effort and has developed a Framework for Climate Literacy using the AAAS Project 2061 Atlas of Science. During the development of the climate literacy framework federal science agencies, formal and informal educators, non- governmental organizations, and other institutions involved with climate research, education, and outreach to build on the science education benchmarks. This effort resulted in a framework that will be used to engage the broad community to develop a robust conceptual framework that addresses the essential principles and fundamental concepts that climate literate citizens and students should know. That document has been reviewed and commented on during several rounds and is available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/education/

  3. Roles of energy conservation and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation: a coupled modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Haijin; Yang, Haijun; Yin, Jie

    2016-10-01

    The roles of energy balance and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation (BJC) are studied through wind-perturbation experiments in a coupled climate model. Shutting down surface winds over the ocean causes significant reductions in both wind-driven and thermohaline overturning circulations, leading to a remarkable decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT). The sea surface temperature (SST) responds with an increasing meridional gradient, resulting in a stronger Hadley Cell, and thus an enhanced atmosphere heat transport (AHT), compensating the OHT decrease. This is the so-called BJC. Coupled model experiments confirm that the occurrence of BJC is an intrinsic requirement of local energy conservation, and local climate feedback determines the degree of BJC, consistent with our previous theoretical results. Negative (positive or zero) local feedback results in AHT change undercompensating (overcompensating or perfectly compensating) OHT change. Using the radiative kernel technique, the general local feedback between the radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere and surface temperature can be partitioned into individual feedbacks that are related to perturbations in temperature, water vapor, surface albedo, and clouds. We find that the overcompensation in the tropics (extratropics) is mainly caused by positive feedbacks related to water vapor and clouds (surface albedo). The longwave feedbacks related to SST and atmospheric temperature are always negative and strong outside the tropics, well offsetting positive feedbacks in most regions and resulting in undercompensation. Different dominant feedbacks give different BJC scenarios at different regions, acting together to maintain the local energy balance.

  4. Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot.

    PubMed

    Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary D; Ryan, Sadie J; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A; Goldman, Abraham

    2012-01-01

    Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management.

  5. Roles of energy conservation and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation: a coupled modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Haijin; Yang, Haijun; Yin, Jie

    2017-09-01

    The roles of energy balance and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation (BJC) are studied through wind-perturbation experiments in a coupled climate model. Shutting down surface winds over the ocean causes significant reductions in both wind-driven and thermohaline overturning circulations, leading to a remarkable decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT). The sea surface temperature (SST) responds with an increasing meridional gradient, resulting in a stronger Hadley Cell, and thus an enhanced atmosphere heat transport (AHT), compensating the OHT decrease. This is the so-called BJC. Coupled model experiments confirm that the occurrence of BJC is an intrinsic requirement of local energy conservation, and local climate feedback determines the degree of BJC, consistent with our previous theoretical results. Negative (positive or zero) local feedback results in AHT change undercompensating (overcompensating or perfectly compensating) OHT change. Using the radiative kernel technique, the general local feedback between the radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere and surface temperature can be partitioned into individual feedbacks that are related to perturbations in temperature, water vapor, surface albedo, and clouds. We find that the overcompensation in the tropics (extratropics) is mainly caused by positive feedbacks related to water vapor and clouds (surface albedo). The longwave feedbacks related to SST and atmospheric temperature are always negative and strong outside the tropics, well offsetting positive feedbacks in most regions and resulting in undercompensation. Different dominant feedbacks give different BJC scenarios at different regions, acting together to maintain the local energy balance.

  6. Patterns and Perceptions of Climate Change in a Biodiversity Conservation Hotspot

    PubMed Central

    Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary D.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A.; Goldman, Abraham

    2012-01-01

    Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management. PMID:22384244

  7. Creating Extension Programs for Change: Forest Landowners and Climate Change Communication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krantz, Shelby; Monroe, Martha; Bartels, Wendy-Lin

    2013-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service in the United States can play an important role in educating forest landowners to improve forest resilience in the face of climatic uncertainty. Two focus groups in Florida informed the development of a program that was conducted in Leon County; presurveys and postsurveys and observation provided evaluation data.…

  8. Best Practices: Creating an LGBT-Inclusive School Climate. A Teaching Tolerance Guide for School Leaders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Southern Poverty Law Center (NJ1), 2013

    2013-01-01

    Schools are places of learning and also miniature societies. The climate of a school has a direct impact on both how well students learn and how well they interact with their peers. Teachers and administrators work hard to make their classrooms welcoming places where each student feels included. But despite these efforts, students who are--or who…

  9. Communication in Computer Science Classrooms: Understanding Defensive Climates as a Means of Creating Supportive Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garvin-Doxas, Kathy; Barker, Lecia J.

    2004-01-01

    All learning environments are characterized by numerous communication and interaction practices, which lend themselves to an overall characterization of the climate as defensive or supportive. A case study of public communication and interaction in a large, research-intensive university's first year computer science courses illustrates a learning…

  10. Creating Extension Programs for Change: Forest Landowners and Climate Change Communication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krantz, Shelby; Monroe, Martha; Bartels, Wendy-Lin

    2013-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service in the United States can play an important role in educating forest landowners to improve forest resilience in the face of climatic uncertainty. Two focus groups in Florida informed the development of a program that was conducted in Leon County; presurveys and postsurveys and observation provided evaluation data.…

  11. Creating and Assessing Campus Climates That Support Personal and Social Responsibility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reason, Robert D.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, Robert D. Reason defines personal and social responsibility as a five-component outcome of college, presents a case for thinking about educating for personal and social responsibility through the lens of campus climate that eschews the hunt for a single intervention, and encourages the marshaling of multiple resources in multiple…

  12. Creating and Assessing Campus Climates That Support Personal and Social Responsibility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reason, Robert D.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, Robert D. Reason defines personal and social responsibility as a five-component outcome of college, presents a case for thinking about educating for personal and social responsibility through the lens of campus climate that eschews the hunt for a single intervention, and encourages the marshaling of multiple resources in multiple…

  13. Creating a New Model for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation for Critical Infrastructure: The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NYC Panel on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W. D.; Freed, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, launched in August 2008, aims to secure the city's critical infrastructure against rising seas, higher temperatures and fluctuating water supplies projected to result from climate change. The Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is part of PlaNYC, the city's long- term sustainability plan, and is composed of over 30 city and state agencies, public authorities and companies that operate the region's roads, bridges, tunnels, mass transit, and water, sewer, energy and telecommunications systems - all with critical infrastructure identified as vulnerable. It is one of the most comprehensive adaptation efforts yet launched by an urban region. To guide the effort, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts on the panel include climatologists, sea-level rise specialists, adaptation experts, and engineers, as well as representatives from the insurance and legal sectors. The NPCC is developing planning tools for use by the Task Force members that provide information about climate risks, adaptation and risk assessment, prioritization frameworks, and climate protection levels. The advisory panel is supplying climate change projections, helping to identify at- risk infrastructure, and assisting the Task Force in developing adaptation strategies and guidelines for design of new structures. The NPCC will also publish an assessment report in 2009 that will serve as the foundation for climate change adaptation in the New York City region, similar to the IPCC reports. Issues that the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NPCC are addressing include decision- making under climate change uncertainty, effective ways for expert knowledge to be incorporated into public actions, and strategies for maintaining consistent and effective attention to long-term climate change even as municipal governments cycle

  14. Placing lochs in their landscapes: linking landscape ecology, ecohydrology and conservation interest in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muir, M. C.; Spray, C. J.; Rowan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    Scotland is a country with outstanding freshwater systems providing multiple social, economic and cultural functions as well as ecological services of international importance. Scotland's lakes (locally termed lochs) occupy approximately 3% of the country's land mass and contain more than 90% of Great Britain's total freshwater resource. With over 25,000 lochs (surface area greater than 0.1 hectares) standing freshwaters are an iconic part of Scotland's landscape and they come in a myriad of forms and sizes contributing outstanding geodiversity as well as habitats of international importance for numerous species of conservation interest. There is undoubtedly a need to protect the conservation interests of designated sites in the face of changing loch and catchment pressures - which include diffuse pollutants, morphological modification, recreation and invasive species. Climate change presents a new set of challenges with potential impacts across the entire standing water resource base and predicting how these systems might respond to these changes greatly amplifies uncertainties implicit in their environmental management. Global climate change is predicted to be a major cause of change across all ecosystems and there are particular concerns about impacts on freshwater systems due to the coupling of impacts to both hydrology and ecology. Climate change is likely to affect the hydrological cycle in a number of ways, most significantly through changing temperature and precipitation patterns, intensities and extremes. These changes, coupled with reduced snow and ice cover, frequency and duration, will lead to changes in soil moisture conditions and subsequently runoff. This is turn will impact on river flow, loch water levels, epilimnic temperatures, nutrient availability and, subsequently, the ecological structure and function of the entire standing water system. For some species these habitat changes will push them to the very limits of their natural tolerances and a

  15. Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

    PubMed

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

    2015-02-01

    Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the

  16. Creating dialogue: a workshop on "Uncertainty in Decision Making in a Changing Climate"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewen, Tracy; Addor, Nans; Johnson, Leigh; Coltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty is present in all fields of climate research, spanning from projections of future climate change, to assessing regional impacts and vulnerabilities, to adaptation policy and decision-making. In addition to uncertainties, managers and planners in many sectors are often confronted with large amounts of information from climate change research whose complex and interdisciplinary nature make it challenging to incorporate into the decision-making process. An overarching issue in tackling this problem is the lack of institutionalized dialogue between climate researchers, decision-makers and user groups. Forums that facilitate such dialogue would allow climate researchers to actively engage with end-users and researchers in different disciplines to better characterize uncertainties and ultimately understand which ones are critically considered and incorporated into decisions made. We propose that the introduction of students to these challenges at an early stage of their education and career is a first step towards improving future dialogue between climate researchers, decision-makers and user groups. To this end, we organized a workshop at the University of Zurich, Switzerland, entitled "Uncertainty in Decision Making in a Changing Climate". It brought together 50 participants, including Bachelor, Master and PhD students and academic staff, and nine selected speakers from academia, industry, government, and philanthropy. Speakers introduced participants to topics ranging from uncertainties in climate model scenarios to managing uncertainties in development and aid agencies. The workshop consisted of experts' presentations, a panel discussion and student group work on case studies. Pedagogical goals included i) providing participants with an overview of the current research on uncertainty and on how uncertainty is dealt with by decision-makers, ii) fostering exchange between practitioners, students, and scientists from different backgrounds, iii) exposing

  17. Data-Driven Reduction and Climate Prediction by Nonlinear Stochastic Energy-Conserving Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kondrashov, D. A.

    2013-05-01

    Comprehensive dynamical climate models aim at simulating past, present and future climate and, more recently, at predicting it. These models, commonly known as general circulation models or global climate models (GCMs) represent a broad range of time and space scales and use a state vector that has many millions of degrees of freedom. Considerable work, both theoretical and data-based, has shown that much of the observed climate variability can be represented with a substantially smaller number of degrees of freedom. While detailed weather prediction out to a few days requires high numerical resolution, it is fairly clear that the dimension of the phase space in which a major fraction of climate variance can be predicted is likely to be much smaller. Low-dimensional models (LDMs) can simulate and predict that variability provided they are able to account for (i) linear and nonlinear interactions between the resolved high-variance climate components; and (ii) the interactions between the resolved components and the huge number of unresolved ones. Here we will present applications of a particular data-driven LDM approach, namely energy-conserving formulation of empirical model reduction (EMR). As an operational methodology, EMR attempts to construct a low-order nonlinear system of multi-level prognostic equations driven by stochastic forcing, and to estimate both the dynamical operator and the properties of the driving noise directly from observations or from a high-order model's simulation. The multi-level EMR structure for modeling the noise allows one to capture feedback between high- and low-frequency components of the variability, thus parameterizing the "fast" scales — often referred to as the "noise" — in terms of the memory of the "slow" scales, the "signal." EMR already proved to be highly competitive for real-time ENSO prediction among state-of-the art dynamical and statistical models. New opportunities for EMR prediction will be illustrated in the

  18. Fusion of Active and Passive Microwave Observations to Create AN Essential Climate Variable Data Record on Soil Moisture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, W.; Dorigo, W.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez, D.; Benveniste, J.; Haas, E.; Ertl, M.

    2012-07-01

    Soil moisture was recently included in the list of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) that are deemed essential for IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) needs and considered feasible for global observation. ECVs data records should be as long, complete and consistent as possible, and in the case of soil moisture this means that the data record shall be based on multiple data sources, including but not limited to active (scatterometer) and passive (radiometer) microwave observations acquired preferably in the low-frequency microwave range. Among the list of sensors that can be used for this task are the C-band scatterometers on board of the ERS and METOP satellites and the multi-frequency radiometers SMMR, SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, and Windsat. Together, these sensors already cover a time period of more than 30 years and the question is how can observations acquired by these sensors be merged to create one consistent data record? This paper discusses on a high-level possible approaches for fusing the individual satellite data. It is argued that the best possible approach for the fusion of the different satellite data sets is to merge Level 2 soil moisture data derived from the individual satellite data records. This approach has already been demonstrated within the WACMOS project (http://wacmos.itc.nl/) funded by European Space Agency (ESA) and will be further improved within the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) programme of ESA (http://www.esa-cci.org/).

  19. How to Go Green: Creating a Conservation Culture in a Public High School through Education, Modeling, and Communication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schelly, Chelsea; Cross, Jennifer E.; Franzen, William; Hall, Pete; Reeve, Stu

    2012-01-01

    This case study examines how energy conservation efforts in one public high school contributed to both sustainability education and the adoption of sustainable behavior within educational and organizational practice. Individual role models, school facilities, school governance and school culture together support both conservation and environmental…

  20. How to Go Green: Creating a Conservation Culture in a Public High School through Education, Modeling, and Communication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schelly, Chelsea; Cross, Jennifer E.; Franzen, William; Hall, Pete; Reeve, Stu

    2012-01-01

    This case study examines how energy conservation efforts in one public high school contributed to both sustainability education and the adoption of sustainable behavior within educational and organizational practice. Individual role models, school facilities, school governance and school culture together support both conservation and environmental…

  1. Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Global Invasion of Lantana camara: Has the Climatic Niche Been Conserved across Continents?

    PubMed Central

    Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O.; Lampo, Margarita; Velásquez, Grisel; Sharma, Gyan P.; García-Rangel, Shaenandhoa

    2014-01-01

    Lantana camara, a native plant from tropical America, is considered one of the most harmful invasive species worldwide. Several studies have identified potentially invasible areas under scenarios of global change, on the assumption that niche is conserved during the invasion process. Recent studies, however, suggest that many invasive plants do not conserve their niches. Using Principal Components Analyses (PCA), we tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for L. camara by comparing its native niche in South America with its expressed niche in Africa, Australia and India. Using MaxEnt, the estimated niche for the native region was projected onto each invaded region to generate potential distributions there. Our results demonstrate that while L. camara occupied subsets of its original native niche in Africa and Australia, in India its niche shifted significantly. There, 34% of the occurrences were detected in warmer habitats nonexistent in its native range. The estimated niche for India was also projected onto Africa and Australia to identify other vulnerable areas predicted from the observed niche shift detected in India. As a result, new potentially invasible areas were identified in central Africa and southern Australia. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism for the invasion of L. camara. The mechanisms that allow this species to expand its niche need to be investigated in order to improve our capacity to predict long-term geographic changes in the face of global climatic changes. PMID:25343481

  3. Global invasion of Lantana camara: has the climatic niche been conserved across continents?

    PubMed

    Goncalves, Estefany; Herrera, Ileana; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Lampo, Margarita; Velásquez, Grisel; Sharma, Gyan P; García-Rangel, Shaenandhoa

    2014-01-01

    Lantana camara, a native plant from tropical America, is considered one of the most harmful invasive species worldwide. Several studies have identified potentially invasible areas under scenarios of global change, on the assumption that niche is conserved during the invasion process. Recent studies, however, suggest that many invasive plants do not conserve their niches. Using Principal Components Analyses (PCA), we tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for L. camara by comparing its native niche in South America with its expressed niche in Africa, Australia and India. Using MaxEnt, the estimated niche for the native region was projected onto each invaded region to generate potential distributions there. Our results demonstrate that while L. camara occupied subsets of its original native niche in Africa and Australia, in India its niche shifted significantly. There, 34% of the occurrences were detected in warmer habitats nonexistent in its native range. The estimated niche for India was also projected onto Africa and Australia to identify other vulnerable areas predicted from the observed niche shift detected in India. As a result, new potentially invasible areas were identified in central Africa and southern Australia. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism for the invasion of L. camara. The mechanisms that allow this species to expand its niche need to be investigated in order to improve our capacity to predict long-term geographic changes in the face of global climatic changes.

  4. Climate change and the characterization, breeding and conservation of animal genetic resources.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Irene

    2010-05-01

    Livestock production both contributes to and is affected by climate change. In addition to the physiological effects of higher temperatures on individual animals, the consequences of climate change are likely to include increased risk that geographically restricted rare breed populations will be badly affected by disturbances. Indirect effects may be felt via ecosystem changes that alter the distribution of animal diseases or affect the supply of feed. Breeding goals may have to be adjusted to account for higher temperatures, lower quality diets and greater disease challenge. Species and breeds that are well adapted to such conditions may become more widely used. Climate change mitigation strategies, in combination with ever increasing demand for food, may also have an impact on breed and species utilization, driving a shift towards monogastrics and breeds that are efficient converters of feed into meat, milk and eggs. This may lead to the neglect of the adaptation potential of local breeds in developing countries. Given the potential for significant future changes in production conditions and in the objectives of livestock production, it is essential that the value provided by animal genetic diversity is secured. This requires better characterization of breeds, production environments and associated knowledge; the compilation of more complete breed inventories; improved mechanisms to monitor and respond to threats to genetic diversity; more effective in situ and ex situ conservation measures; genetic improvement programmes targeting adaptive traits in high-output and performance traits in locally adapted breeds; increased support for developing countries in their management of animal genetic resources; and wider access to genetic resources and associated knowledge.

  5. Creating climate quality global datasets for studying trends, variability and extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willett, K.; Thorne, P.

    2010-09-01

    Historical instrumental records are essential for climate monitoring and climate research, yet the data are riddled with issues of quality and inhomogeneity. This leaves uncertainty surrounding any conclusions drawn from the data. It is essential that data are quality controlled and homogenised. Furthermore, this must be done in an objective, reproducible and globally consistent manner that enables quantification of uncertainty. The Met Office Hadley Centre is pursuing the quality control and homogenisation of 6000+ stations sub-daily synoptic near-surface temperature data. The data focus mainly on temperature and dewpoint temperature but also include sea level pressure, wind speed and cloud cover. Quality control efforts address many known issues with observational data in an automated manner including outliers and spikes (individual and clusters), repeated values, wet-bulb reservoir drying/freezing and frequently occurring values to name a few. Homogenisation is still work in progress but makes use of ‘pseudo-data' to validate breakpoint detection and adjustment methods. An bootstrap approach will be used on application of homogenisation covering a wide spread of decision parameters with which to estimate uncertainties. This paper details an automated quality control system and presents efforts to date to homogenise these data.

  6. Straighttalk. Creating a climate of innovation: the healthcare industry's biggest challenge. Panel discussion.

    PubMed

    Chin, David; Rosenblatt, Alice; Simon, Greg; Lauer, Charles

    2007-10-29

    The U.S. health system is not sustainable as currently structured--innovation is necessary to fuel reform, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' report, HealthCast 2020: Creating a Sustainable Health System. But wide-scale innovation--which requires diverse players within the industry to collaborate--is difficult to achieve. In this installment of Straight Talk, leaders from WellPoint, Inc., one of the nation's largest health benefits companies, and FasterCures/The Center for Accelerating Medical Solutions, a think-tank based in Washington, talk about what they're doing to nurture innovation.

  7. Assessing vulnerable and expanding vegetation stands and species in the San Francisco Bay Area for conservation management under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morueta-Holme, N.; Heller, N. E.; McLaughlin, B.; Weiss, S. B.; Ackerly, D.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of suitable climatic areas for species and vegetation types is expected to shift due to ongoing climate change. While the pace at which current distributions will shift is hard to quantify, predictions of where climatically suitable areas will be in the future can allow us to map 1) areas currently occupied by a species or vegetation type unlikely to persist through the end of this century (vulnerable stands), 2) areas likely to do better in the future and serve as nuclei for population expansion (expanding stands), and 3) areas likely to act as climate refugia (persisting stands). We quantified the vulnerability of 27 individual plant species and 27 vegetation types in the San Francisco Bay Area as well as the conservation importance, vulnerability, and resilience of selected management sites for climate change resilient conservation. To this end, we developed California-wide models of species and vegetation distributions using climate data from the 2014 California Basin Characterization Model at a 270 m resolution, projected to 18 different end-of century climate change scenarios. Combining these distribution models with high resolution maps of current vegetation, we were able to map projected vulnerable, expanding, and persisting stands within the Bay Area. We show that vegetation and species are expected to shift considerably within the study region over the next decades; although we also identify refugia potentially able to offset some of the negative impacts of climate change. We discuss the implications for managers that wish to incorporate climate change in conservation decisions, in particular related to choosing species for restoration, identifying areas to collect seeds for restoration, and preparing for expected major vegetation changes. Our evaluation of individual management sites highlights the need for stronger coordination of efforts across sites to prioritize monitoring and protection of species whose ranges are contracting

  8. Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

  9. Exploring the active role of water vapor in creating more extreme SSTs and climate variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoell, A.

    2015-12-01

    While it is well-known that water vapor will play an important role in amplifying the direct warming effects of well-mixed greenhouse gasses like CO2 and methane, to date relatively little attention has been placed on the spatial variability of water vapor warming effects: increased diabatic forcing from precipitation and long wave radiation. Here, using 1850-2012 atmospheric simulations from the GEOS5 model, 1948-2015 NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1 fields, 1979-2015 MERRA atmospheric reanalyses, and 1979-2015 NOAA OLR observations, we explore two potential thermodynamic contributions associated with water vapor. One contribution comes from the diabatic heating of the atmosphere by longwave radiation emissions. Another contribution comes from diabatic heating of the atmosphere by precipitation. This diabatic heating warms the local atmosphere, and over the tropical oceans, typically warms areas that are already warm. This increases local temperature gradients and potentially increases available potential energy both in the vertical (i.e. CAPE) and in the horizontal (i.e. APE). Using MERRA's detailed thermodynamic budget terms, we examine several recent climate extremes, like the 2011 La Niña and the 2015 El Niño, suggesting that exceptional increases in water vapor radiative warming and precipitation may have helped to make both events more extreme: exceptionally high levels of water vapor in the western Pacific may have helped increase the warm west Pacific - cool Niño 4 SST gradient during the 2011 La Niña. Conversely, in 2015, exceptionally high levels of water vapor in the eastern Pacific may have helped increase the warm Niño 3.4 - cool western Pacific El Niño SST gradient. These water vapor influences can be radiative (warming warm SSTs), as well as dynamic, as enhanced precipitation releases more latent heat. Thus 'anthropogenic' water vapor may move around the climate system, helping to exacerbate warming in warm areas of the atmosphere. We examine this

  10. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-07-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.

  11. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

    PubMed Central

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union. PMID:26681982

  12. Quantifying the evidence for co-benefits between species conservation and climate change mitigation in giant panda habitats.

    PubMed

    Li, Renqiang; Xu, Ming; Powers, Ryan; Zhao, Fen; Jetz, Walter; Wen, Hui; Sheng, Qingkai

    2017-10-05

    Conservationists strive for practical, cost-effective management solutions to forest-based species conservation and climate change mitigation. However, this is compromised by insufficient information about the effectiveness of protected areas in increasing carbon storage, and the co-benefits of species and carbon conservation remain poorly understood. Here, we present the first rigorous quantitative assessment of the roles of giant panda nature reserves (NRs) in carbon sequestration, and explore the co-benefits of habitat conservation and climate change mitigation. Results show that more than 90% of the studied panda NRs are effective in increasing carbon storage, with the mean biomass carbon density of the whole NRs exhibiting a 4.2% higher growth rate compared with lands not declared as NRs over the period 1988-2012, while this effectiveness in carbon storage masks important patterns of spatial heterogeneity across the giant panda habitats. Moreover, the significant associations have been identified between biomass carbon density and panda's habitat suitability in ~85% NRs and at the NR level. These findings suggest that the planning for carbon and species conservation co-benefits would enhance the greatest return on limited conservation investments, which is a critical need for the giant panda after its conservation status has been downgraded from "endangered" to "vulnerable".

  13. Reducing Energy Consumption and Creating a Conservation Culture in Organizations: A Case Study of One Public School District

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schelly, Chelsea; Cross, Jennifer E.; Franzen, William S.; Hall, Pete; Reeve, Stu

    2011-01-01

    How can existing schools significantly reduce their energy use? With energy costs rising and school budgets shrinking, energy use is a substantial cost that can be reduced through conservation efforts. Using a case study methodology, the authors compare two public high schools from the same school district, one that has achieved moderate energy…

  14. Reducing Energy Consumption and Creating a Conservation Culture in Organizations: A Case Study of One Public School District

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schelly, Chelsea; Cross, Jennifer E.; Franzen, William S.; Hall, Pete; Reeve, Stu

    2011-01-01

    How can existing schools significantly reduce their energy use? With energy costs rising and school budgets shrinking, energy use is a substantial cost that can be reduced through conservation efforts. Using a case study methodology, the authors compare two public high schools from the same school district, one that has achieved moderate energy…

  15. Design of ecoregional monitoring in conservation areas of high-latitude ecosystems under contemporary climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Land ownership in Alaska includes a mosaic of federally managed units. Within its agency’s context, each unit has its own management strategy, authority, and resources of conservation concern, many of which are migratory animals. Though some units are geographically isolated, many are nevertheless linked by paths of abiotic and biotic flows, such as rivers, air masses, flyways, and terrestrial and aquatic migration routes. Furthermore, individual land units exist within the context of a larger landscape pattern of shifting conditions, requiring managers to understand at larger spatial scales the status and trends in the synchrony and spatial concurrence of species and associated suitable habitats. Results of these changes will determine the ability of Alaska lands to continue to: provide habitat for local and migratory species; absorb species whose ranges are shifting northward; and experience mitigation or exacerbation of climate change through positive and negative atmospheric feedbacks. We discuss the geographic and statutory contexts that influence development of ecological monitoring; argue for the inclusion of significant amounts of broad-scale monitoring; discuss the importance of defining clear programmatic and monitoring objectives; and draw from lessons learned from existing long-term, broad-scale monitoring programs to apply to the specific contexts relevant to high-latitude protected areas such as those in Alaska. Such areas are distinguished by their: marked seasonality; relatively large magnitudes of contemporary change in climatic parameters; and relative inaccessibility due to broad spatial extent, very low (or zero) road density, and steep and glaciated areas. For ecological monitoring to effectively support management decisions in high-latitude areas such as Alaska, a monitoring program ideally would be structured to address the actual spatial and temporal scales of relevant processes, rather than the artificial boundaries of individual land

  16. COST G7 Action Creates a Durable Instrument for Advanced Research Implementation in Artwork Conservation by Laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radvan, R.

    The paper presents the new designed instrument for advanced research implementation in artwork conservation mainly by laser. The idea of this instrument is an output of the COST G7 activity during the previous three years as a result of the acute demonstrated necessity. It will dress the form of a European institute (ISAAC) with a permanent operative activity as an e-institution, involved in partnership formation for concrete projects with European value, with the attributes of a co-ordination action into a multi annual project in CULTURE 2000 Program. It has to be more than specialists' forum, and more than dissemination frame, but a pragmatic context for an efficient transfer of know-how and technology from research towards restoration/conservation, respectively SME's. ISAAC is very suitable to entirely or partly sustain activities of large interest but often too expensive for separate groups — partner mediation events, consulting, demonstrations, workshops, editing & publication, audits etc.

  17. Shift of grey seal subspecies boundaries in response to climate, culling and conservation.

    PubMed

    Fietz, Katharina; Galatius, Anders; Teilmann, Jonas; Dietz, Rune; Frie, Anne Kristine; Klimova, Anastasia; Palsbøll, Per J; Jensen, Lasse F; Graves, Jeff A; Hoffman, Joseph I; Olsen, Morten Tange

    2016-09-01

    Identifying the processes that drive changes in the abundance and distribution of natural populations is a central theme in ecology and evolution. Many species of marine mammals have experienced dramatic changes in abundance and distribution due to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts. However, thanks to conservation efforts, some of these species have shown remarkable population recovery and are now recolonizing their former ranges. Here, we use zooarchaeological, demographic and genetic data to examine processes of colonization, local extinction and recolonization of the two northern European grey seal subspecies inhabiting the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The zooarchaeological and genetic data suggest that the two subspecies diverged shortly after the formation of the Baltic Sea approximately 4200 years bp, probably through a gradual shift to different breeding habitats and phenologies. By comparing genetic data from 19th century pre-extinction material with that from seals currently recolonizing their past range, we observed a marked spatiotemporal shift in subspecies boundaries, with increasing encroachment of North Sea seals on areas previously occupied by the Baltic Sea subspecies. Further, both demographic and genetic data indicate that the two subspecies have begun to overlap geographically and are hybridizing in a narrow contact zone. Our findings provide new insights into the processes of colonization, extinction and recolonization and have important implications for the management of grey seals across northern Europe.

  18. Water management, purification, and conservation in arid climates. Volume 1: Water management

    SciTech Connect

    Goosen, M.F.A.; Shayya, W.H.

    1999-07-01

    Arid regions are already feeling the severe restraining effects of potable water shortages. In coming years, humid and sub-humid regions of the world will also have to face many of these same problems. In the future, serious conflicts may arise not because of a lack of oil, but due to water shortages. Are there solutions to these problems? Aside from increasing public awareness about the importance of water, society needs to take a three pronged approach: water needs to be effectively managed, it needs to be economically purified, and it needs to be conserved. Only by doing these three things in unison can they hope to alleviate the water problems faced by arid regions of the world. This book presents information valuable to seeking, finding and using current technologies to help solve these problems now. Volume 1 examines water management problems in detail, along with water problems and water resources in arid climates, and includes chapters that cover aspects of water management. Water purification technology is another key issue. The economics of this technology is becoming more critical in arid areas due to increasing urbanization and industrialization.

  19. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  20. Science questions for implementing climate refugia for salmon as a conservation strategy

    EPA Science Inventory

    The recognition and protection of climate refugia has been proposed as a potential adaptation strategy that may be useful for protecting the biotic integrity of watersheds under a changing climate. Climate refugia are areas that are buffered from climate change effects relative t...

  1. Science questions for implementing climate refugia for salmon as a conservation strategy

    EPA Science Inventory

    The recognition and protection of climate refugia has been proposed as a potential adaptation strategy that may be useful for protecting the biotic integrity of watersheds under a changing climate. Climate refugia are areas that are buffered from climate change effects relative t...

  2. Moving into Protected Areas? Setting Conservation Priorities for Romanian Reptiles and Amphibians at Risk from Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Popescu, Viorel D.; Rozylowicz, Laurenţiu; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Niculae, Iulian Mihăiţă; Cucu, Adina Livia

    2013-01-01

    Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas

  3. Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change.

    PubMed

    Popescu, Viorel D; Rozylowicz, Laurenţiu; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Niculae, Iulian Mihăiţă; Cucu, Adina Livia

    2013-01-01

    Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas

  4. Conservation biogeography of the Cerrado's wild edible plants under climate change: Linking biotic stability with agricultural expansion.

    PubMed

    de Oliveira, Guilherme; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Terribile, Levi Carina; Dobrovolski, Ricardo; Telles, Mariana Pires de Campos; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola

    2015-06-01

    REMISE OF THE STUDY: Wild edible plants (WEPs) have an important cultural and economic role in human population worldwide. Human impacts are quickly converting natural habitats in agricultural, cattle ranch, and urbanized lands, putting native species on peril of risk of extinction, including some WEPs. Moreover, global climate changes also can pose another threat to species persistency. Here, we established conservation priorities for the Cerrado, a neotropical region in South America with high levels of plant endemism and vulnerability, aiming to assure long-term persistency of 16 most important WEPs. We evaluated these conservation priorities using a conservation biogeography framework using ecological patterns and process at a biogeographical scale to deal with species conservation features. We built ecological niche models for 16 WEPs from Cerrado in the neotropics using climate models for preindustrial, past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future (year 2080) time periods to establish climatically stable areas through time, finding refugias for these WEPs. We used a spatial prioritization algorithm based on the spatial pattern of irreplaceability across the neotropics, aiming to ensure the persistence of at least 25% of range size in climatically stable areas for each WEP, using agricultural models as constraints. The Southeast Cerrado was the most biotically stable and irreplaceable region for the WEPs compared with other areas across the neotropics. Our findings strongly suggest that the Southeast Cerrado should be considered a conservation priority, with new protected areas to be sustainably managed and restored, to guarantee the supply of cultural and ecosystem services provided from the Cerrado's WEPs. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  5. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    PubMed Central

    Scriber, Jon Mark

    2013-01-01

    Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes

  6. Adaptation in Practice: How Managers of Nature Conservation Areas in Eastern England are Responding to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macgregor, Nicholas A.; van Dijk, Nikki

    2014-10-01

    Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area's capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing "transformation." Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries.

  7. Adaptation in practice: how managers of nature conservation areas in eastern england are responding to climate change.

    PubMed

    Macgregor, Nicholas A; van Dijk, Nikki

    2014-10-01

    Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area's capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing "transformation." Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries.

  8. The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework: a tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management.

    PubMed

    Cross, Molly S; Zavaleta, Erika S; Bachelet, Dominique; Brooks, Marjorie L; Enquist, Carolyn A F; Fleishman, Erica; Graumlich, Lisa J; Groves, Craig R; Hannah, Lee; Hansen, Lara; Hayward, Greg; Koopman, Marni; Lawler, Joshua J; Malcolm, Jay; Nordgren, John; Petersen, Brian; Rowland, Erika L; Scott, Daniel; Shafer, Sarah L; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary M

    2012-09-01

    As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)--water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.

  9. The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cross, Molly S.; Zavaleta, Erika S.; Bachelet, Dominique; Brooks, Marjorie L.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Fleishman, Erica; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Groves, Craig R.; Hannah, Lee; Hansen, Lara J.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Koopman, Marni; Lawler, Joshua J.; Malcolm, Jay; Nordgren, John R.; Petersen, Brian; Rowland, Erika; Scott, Daniel; Shafer, Sarah L.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary

    2012-01-01

    As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)—water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.

  10. Conservation of prehistoric caves and stability of their inner climate: lessons from Chauvet and other French caves.

    PubMed

    Bourges, F; Genthon, P; Genty, D; Lorblanchet, M; Mauduit, E; D'Hulst, D

    2014-09-15

    In the last 150 years, some prehistoric painted caves suffered irreversible degradations due to misperception of conservation issues and subsequent mismanagement. These sites presented naturally an exceptional stability of their internal climate allowing conservation in situ of outstanding fragile remains, some for nearly 40,000 years. This is for a large part due to exchanges of air, CO2, heat and water with the karstic system in which these caves are included. We introduce the concept of underground confinement, based on the stability of the inner cave climate parameters, especially its temperature. Confined caves present the best conservative properties. It is emphasized that this confined state implies slow exchanges with the surrounding karst and that a stable cave cannot be viewed as a closed system. This is illustrated on four case studies of French caves of various confinement states evidenced by long term continuous monitoring and on strategies to improve their conservation properties. The Chauvet cave presents optimal conservation properties. It is wholly confined as shown by the stability of its internal parameters since its discovery in 1994. In Marsoulas cave, archeological works removed the entrance scree and let a strong opening situation of the decorated zone. Remediation is expected by adding a buffer structure at the entrance. In Pech Merle tourist cave, recurrent painting fading was related to natural seasonal drying of walls. Improvement of the cave closure system restored a confined state insuring optimal visibility of the paintings. In Gargas tourist cave, optimization of closures, lighting system and number of visitors, allowed it to gradually reach a semi-confined state that improved the conservation properties. Conclusions are drawn on the characterization of confinement state of caves and on the ways to improve their conservation properties by restoring their initial regulation mechanisms and to avoid threats to their stability. Copyright

  11. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refuges can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refuges. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little

  12. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change.

    PubMed

    Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

    2013-07-01

    Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refugees based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refugees can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refugees. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have

  13. Putting the brakes on reproduction: Implications for conservation, global climate change and biomedicine.

    PubMed

    Wingfield, John C; Perfito, Nicole; Calisi, Rebecca; Bentley, George; Ubuka, T; Mukai, M; O'Brien, Sara; Tsutsui, K

    2016-02-01

    Seasonal breeding is widespread in vertebrates and involves sequential development of the gonads, onset of breeding activities (e.g. cycling in females) and then termination resulting in regression of the reproductive system. Whereas males generally show complete spermatogenesis prior to and after onset of breeding, females of many vertebrate species show only partial ovarian development and may delay onset of cycling (e.g. estrous), yolk deposition or germinal vesicle breakdown until conditions conducive for ovulation and onset of breeding are favorable. Regulation of this "brake" on the onset of breeding remains relatively unknown, but could have profound implications for conservation efforts and for "mismatches" of breeding in relation to global climate change. Using avian models it is proposed that a brain peptide, gonadotropin-inhibitory hormone (GnIH), may be the brake to prevent onset of breeding in females. Evidence to date suggests that although GnIH may be involved in the regulation of gonadal development and regression, it plays more regulatory roles in the process of final ovarian development leading to ovulation, transitions from sexual to parental behavior and suppression of reproductive function by environmental stress. Accumulating experimental evidence strongly suggests that GnIH inhibits actions of gonadotropin-releasing hormones on behavior (central effects), gonadotropin secretion (central and hypophysiotropic effects), and has direct actions in the gonad to inhibit steroidogenesis. Thus, actual onset of breeding activities leading to ovulation may involve environmental cues releasing an inhibition (brake) on the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonad axis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Conservation Priorities for Prunus africana Defined with the Aid of Spatial Analysis of Genetic Data and Climatic Variables

    PubMed Central

    Vinceti, Barbara; Loo, Judy; Gaisberger, Hannes; van Zonneveld, Maarten J.; Schueler, Silvio; Konrad, Heino; Kadu, Caroline A. C.; Geburek, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Conservation priorities for Prunus africana, a tree species found across Afromontane regions, which is of great commercial interest internationally and of local value for rural communities, were defined with the aid of spatial analyses applied to a set of georeferenced molecular marker data (chloroplast and nuclear microsatellites) from 32 populations in 9 African countries. Two approaches for the selection of priority populations for conservation were used, differing in the way they optimize representation of intra-specific diversity of P. africana across a minimum number of populations. The first method (S1) was aimed at maximizing genetic diversity of the conservation units and their distinctiveness with regard to climatic conditions, the second method (S2) at optimizing representativeness of the genetic diversity found throughout the species’ range. Populations in East African countries (especially Kenya and Tanzania) were found to be of great conservation value, as suggested by previous findings. These populations are complemented by those in Madagascar and Cameroon. The combination of the two methods for prioritization led to the identification of a set of 6 priority populations. The potential distribution of P. africana was then modeled based on a dataset of 1,500 georeferenced observations. This enabled an assessment of whether the priority populations identified are exposed to threats from agricultural expansion and climate change, and whether they are located within the boundaries of protected areas. The range of the species has been affected by past climate change and the modeled distribution of P. africana indicates that the species is likely to be negatively affected in future, with an expected decrease in distribution by 2050. Based on these insights, further research at the regional and national scale is recommended, in order to strengthen P. africana conservation efforts. PMID:23544118

  15. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  16. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  17. Linking climate change and fish conservation efforts using spatially explicit decision support tools

    Treesearch

    Douglas P. Peterson; Seth J. Wenger; Bruce E. Rieman; Daniel J. Isaak

    2013-01-01

    Fisheries professionals are increasingly tasked with incorporating climate change projections into their decisions. Here we demonstrate how a structured decision framework, coupled with analytical tools and spatial data sets, can help integrate climate and biological information to evaluate management alternatives. We present examples that link downscaled climate...

  18. Create Great School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vail, Kathleen

    2005-01-01

    A teacher's attitude--whether good or bad--trickles down to the students. According to Tom Carroll, who serves in the capacity of president of the National Commission on Teaching and America's Future, there is no teacher shortage but a horrendous turnover and attrition problem. Teachers who are leaving are constantly being replaced. The conditions…

  19. Create Great School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vail, Kathleen

    2005-01-01

    A teacher's attitude--whether good or bad--trickles down to the students. According to Tom Carroll, who serves in the capacity of president of the National Commission on Teaching and America's Future, there is no teacher shortage but a horrendous turnover and attrition problem. Teachers who are leaving are constantly being replaced. The conditions…

  20. Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fortini, Lucas; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben; Jacobi, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  1. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need 21st Century Conservation Options

    PubMed Central

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations. PMID:26509270

  2. Geographic coincidence of richness, mass, conservation value, and response to climate of U.S. land birds.

    PubMed

    Grundel, Ralph; Frohnapple, Krystalynn J; Zaya, David N; Glowacki, Gary A; Weiskerger, Chelsea J; Patterson, Tamatha A; Pavlovic, Noel B

    2014-06-01

    Distributional patterns across the United States of five avian community breeding-season characteristics--community biomass, richness, constituent species' vulnerability to extirpation, percentage of constituent species' global abundance present in the community (conservation index, CI), and the community's position along the ecological gradient underlying species composition (principal curve ordination score, PC--were described, their covariation was analyzed, and projected effects of climate change on the characteristics and their covariation were modeled. Higher values of biomass, richness, and CI were generally preferred from a conservation perspective. However, higher values of these characteristics often did not coincide geographically; thus regions of the United States would differ in their value for conservation depending on which characteristic was chosen for setting conservation priorities. For instance, correlation patterns between characteristics differed among Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Among the five characteristics, community richness and the ecological gradient underlying community composition (PC) had the highest correlations with longitude, with richness declining from east to west across the contiguous United States. The ecological gradient underlying composition exhibited a demarcation near the 100th meridian, separating the contiguous United States grossly into two similar-sized avian ecological provinces. The combined score (CS), a measure of species' threat of decline or extirpation, exhibited the strongest latitudinal pattern, declining from south to north. Over -75% of the lower United States, projected changes in June temperature and precipitation to year 2080 were associated with decreased averaged values of richness, biomass, and CI, implying decreased conservation value for birds. The two ecological provinces demarcated near the 100th meridian diverged from each other, with projected changes in June temperatures and

  3. Geographic coincidence of richness, mass, conservation value, and response to climate of U.S. land birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grundel, Ralph; Frohnapple, Krystal; Zaya, David N.; Glowacki, Gary A.; Weiskerger, Chelsea J.; Patterson, Tamatha A.; Pavlovic, Noel B.

    2014-01-01

    Distributional patterns across the United States of five avian community breeding-season characteristics—community biomass, richness, constituent species' vulnerability to extirpation, percentage of constituent species' global abundance present in the community (conservation index, CI), and the community's position along the ecological gradient underlying species composition (principal curve ordination score, PC)—were described, their covariation was analyzed, and projected effects of climate change on the characteristics and their covariation were modeled. Higher values of biomass, richness, and CI were generally preferred from a conservation perspective. However, higher values of these characteristics often did not coincide geographically; thus regions of the United States would differ in their value for conservation depending on which characteristic was chosen for setting conservation priorities. For instance, correlation patterns between characteristics differed among Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Among the five characteristics, community richness and the ecological gradient underlying community composition (PC) had the highest correlations with longitude, with richness declining from east to west across the contiguous United States. The ecological gradient underlying composition exhibited a demarcation near the 100th meridian, separating the contiguous United States grossly into two similar-sized avian ecological provinces. The combined score (CS), a measure of species' threat of decline or extirpation, exhibited the strongest latitudinal pattern, declining from south to north. Over ∼75% of the lower United States, projected changes in June temperature and precipitation to year 2080 were associated with decreased averaged values of richness, biomass, and CI, implying decreased conservation value for birds. The two ecological provinces demarcated near the 100th meridian diverged from each other, with projected changes in June temperatures and

  4. Neotropical vegetation responses to Younger Dryas climates as analogs for future climate change scenarios and lessons for conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rull, V.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Montoya, E.

    2015-05-01

    The Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal (12.86-11.65 cal ky BP), especially the warming initiated at ∼12.6 cal ky BP, and the associated vegetation changes have been proposed as past analogs to forecast the potential vegetation responses to future global warming. In this paper, we applied this model to highland and midland Neotropical localities. We used pollen analysis of lake sediments to record vegetation responses to YD climatic changes, which are reconstructed from independent paleoclimatic proxies such as the Mg/Ca ratio on foraminiferal tests and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) for paleotemperature, and grayscale density and Titanium content for paleoprecipitation. Paleoclimatic reconstructions at both highlands and midlands showed a clear YD signal with a conspicuous warming extending into the early Holocene. A small percentage of taxa resulted to be sensitive to these YD climate changes. Response lags were negligible at the resolution of the study. However, changes in the sensitive taxa were relevant enough to determine changes in biodiversity and taxonomic composition. Highland vegetation experienced mainly intra-community reorganizations, whereas midland vegetation underwent major changes leading to community substitutions. This was explained in terms of threshold-crossing non-linear responses in which the coupling of climatic and other forcings (fire) was proposed as the main driving mechanism. Paleoecology provides meaningful insights on the responses of highland and midland Neotropical vegetation to the YD climatic reversal. Biotic responses at both individual (species) and collective (assemblage) levels showed patterns and processes of vegetation change useful to understand its ecological dynamics, as well as the mechanisms and external drivers involved. The use of paleoecological methods to document the biotic responses to the YD climate shifts can be useful to help forecasting the potential consequences of future global warming. Due to its quasi

  5. Climate change, northern birds of conservation concern and matching the hotspots of habitat suitability with the reserve network.

    PubMed

    Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

    2013-01-01

    National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051-2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species' probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares ("hotspots") in the four bird species groups in the period 1971-2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051-2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered.

  6. Climate Change, Northern Birds of Conservation Concern and Matching the Hotspots of Habitat Suitability with the Reserve Network

    PubMed Central

    Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

    2013-01-01

    National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered. PMID:23700420

  7. Identifying and Addressing Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Under Climate Change in Data-Scarce Regions: the Role of Conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shortridge, J.; Guikema, S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have dramatic impacts on built infrastructure, particularly in the water resources sector where infrastructure tends to have long lifespans and performance is highly sensitive to climate conditions. However, adapting to water resources infrastructure to climate change is challenging due to the considerable uncertainty surrounding projections of future hydrologic conditions. This has prompted the development of a number of approaches aimed at supporting planning under "deep-uncertainty" which cannot be represented probabilistically. One such method is robust decision making (RDM), which uses simulation models to assess how systems perform over a wide range of future scenarios and identify vulnerable scenarios where system performance is unacceptable. With the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia as a case study, we use an RDM analysis to assess the vulnerability of planned irrigation infrastructure to climate change and environmental uncertainties related to data limitations. We find that planned infrastructure is vulnerable not only to climate change, but also to poorly characterized environmental conditions today. This suggests areas for research that could provide important insights into the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of the planned projects. Additionally, we evaluate the degree to which methods such as irrigation efficiency and upstream land conservation can improve the long-term performance of the proposed infrastructure. In doing so, we demonstrate how robust decision frameworks can provide decision support in data-scarce regions where more complex modeling and analysis may be impractical.

  8. Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.

    PubMed

    Rehm, Evan M; Olivas, Paulo; Stroud, James; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2015-10-01

    Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.

  9. Positive Educative Programme. A Whole School Approach to Supporting Children's Well-Being and Creating a Positive School Climate: A Pilot Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elfrink, Teuntje R.; Goldberg, Jochem M.; Schreurs, Karlein M. G.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst T.; Clarke, Aleisha M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report on a process and impact evaluation of the Positief Educatief Programma (Positive Education Programme (PEP)), a whole school approach to supporting children's well-being and creating a positive school climate in primary schools in the Netherlands. PEP adopts a competence skill enhancement approach…

  10. Positive Educative Programme. A Whole School Approach to Supporting Children's Well-Being and Creating a Positive School Climate: A Pilot Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elfrink, Teuntje R.; Goldberg, Jochem M.; Schreurs, Karlein M. G.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst T.; Clarke, Aleisha M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report on a process and impact evaluation of the Positief Educatief Programma (Positive Education Programme (PEP)), a whole school approach to supporting children's well-being and creating a positive school climate in primary schools in the Netherlands. PEP adopts a competence skill enhancement approach…

  11. Creating the Climate for Student Acceptance of Evidence-Based Practices in Addiction Studies: A Brief Inquiry into How We Know about Addiction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yalisove, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    This article suggests that evidence based practice instruction should be preceded by an introduction to the 3 types of knowledge about addiction: experiential, professional and research. Each knowledge base should be defined and critiqued. This introduction can create a climate for acceptance of evidence-based practices. The article outlines the…

  12. Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Wolfe, William J.

    2016-08-11

    In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few

  13. Effects of climate variations and soil conservation on sedimentation of a west-central Oklahoma reservoir

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    During the second half of the 20th century, extensive soil conservation practices were implemented on the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed in West-Central Oklahoma. Sediment and flow observations were made on major tributaries in 1943-1950 (pre-conservation time period), and again in 2004-2008 (post-co...

  14. Conservation Practices to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change. Poster Demonstration

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change and its interaction with other environmental problems such as desertification, deforestation, and depletion of water resources used for irrigation, will increase the challenges for maintaining food security during the next four decades and beyond. Climate change and extreme weather ev...

  15. Conservation Practices to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change. Poster Demonstration

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change and its interaction with other environmental problems such as desertification, deforestation, and depletion of water resources used for irrigation, will increase the challenges for maintaining food security during the next four decades and beyond. Climate change and extreme weather ev...

  16. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  17. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  18. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  19. Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot

    PubMed Central

    Webb, Thomas J; Gaston, Kevin J; Hannah, Lee; Ian Woodward, F

    2005-01-01

    The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest–rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 101–104 km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 103 km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 103 km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation. PMID:16608697

  20. Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fordham, D. A.; Akçakaya, H. R.; Brook, B. W.; Rodríguez, A.; Alves, P. C.; Civantos, E.; Triviño, M.; Watts, M. J.; Araújo, M. B.

    2013-10-01

    The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction. Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species, but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species' habitat shifts. Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source-sink dynamics to directly investigate the combined effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lynx. Our approach is unique in that it explicitly models dynamic bi-trophic species interactions in a climate change setting. We show that anticipated climate change will rapidly and severely decrease lynx abundance and probably lead to its extinction in the wild within 50 years, even with strong global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In stark contrast, we also show that a carefully planned reintroduction programme, accounting for the effects of climate change, prey abundance and habitat connectivity, could avert extinction of the lynx this century. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, why considering prey availability, climate change and their interaction in models is important when designing policies to prevent future biodiversity loss.

  1. Tri-Agency Coordination: Challenges and Successes in Creating a Community of Practice among Climate Change Education Principal Investigators funded by NASA, NOAA, and NSF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoedinger, S. E.; McDougall, C.; Karsten, J. L.; Campbell, D.; Pippin, M. R.; Chambers, L. H.

    2013-12-01

    The effort needed for comprehensive climate change education is far greater than any one institution, education sector, or even federal agency can handle. Recognizing a need to synergistically combine efforts, NSF, NASA, and NOAA have created a collaborative community of their climate change education principal investigators (PIs) through tri-agency coordination. The goals of this tri-agency collaboration are to leverage existing resources, minimize duplicate efforts, and facilitate communication among this emergent community of scientists and educators. NASA, NOAA, and NSF work together to strategically coordinate and support a portfolio of projects focused on climate literacy and education in formal and informal learning environments. The activities of the tri-agency collaboration, including annual meetings for PIs, a catalog of the agencies collective investments in climate change education and the ongoing development of a nascent common evaluation framework, have created a strong national network for effectively engaging diverse audiences with the principles of climate literacy (see Eos Vol. 92, No. 24, 14 June 2011). Last year, after 3 years of active collaboration, similar programs underway at other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies: the EPA, National Institutes for Environmental Health Sciences, and USDA, were engaged in the collaboration. And, in an attempt to understand the interests of the private sector in this arena, conversations have begun with private philanthropic organizations. This year, as many of the funded projects are maturing, the PI meeting will have a focus on bringing this community together to create a science-theme based tangible outcome that can move the field of climate change education forward. Additional outcomes from this PI meeting will be presented as well as the challenges that were encountered in bringing together institutions with diverse missions, and approaches developed to ensure all parties feel they

  2. Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Loyola, Rafael D.; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V.; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B.

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages. PMID:23029452

  3. Severe loss of suitable climatic conditions for marsupial species in Brazil: challenges and opportunities for conservation.

    PubMed

    Loyola, Rafael D; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages.

  4. Managing water and salinity with desalination, conveyance, conservation, waste-water treatment and reuse to counteract climate variability in Gaza

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenberg, D. E.; Aljuaidi, A. E.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

    2009-12-01

    We include demands for water of different salinity concentrations as input parameters and decision variables in a regional hydro-economic optimization model. This specification includes separate demand functions for saline water. We then use stochastic non-linear programming to jointly identify the benefit maximizing set of infrastructure expansions, operational allocations, and use of different water quality types under climate variability. We present a detailed application for the Gaza Strip. The application considers building desalination and waste-water treatment plants and conveyance pipelines, initiating water conservation and leak reduction programs, plus allocating and transferring water of different qualities among agricultural, industrial, and urban sectors and among districts. Results show how to integrate a mix of supply enhancement, conservation, water quality improvement, and water quality management actions into a portfolio that can economically and efficiently respond to changes and uncertainties in surface and groundwater availability due to climate variability. We also show how to put drawn-down and saline Gaza aquifer water to more sustainable and economical use.

  5. Quantifying the effects of conservation practice implementation on predicted runoff and chemical losses under climate change

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool with downscaled weather data generated using the MarkSim weather file generator was used to evaluate the impact of long-term conservation practice implementation on runoff, sediment, atrazine, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses in the AXL Watershed located in n...

  6. Variation in the resting frequency of Rhinolophus pusillus in Mainland China: Effect of climate and implications for conservation

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Tinglei; Metzner, Walter; You, Yuyan; Liu, Sen; Lu, Guanjun; Li, Shi; Wang, Lei; Feng, Jiang

    2010-01-01

    This study describes variation patterns in the constant frequency of echolocation calls emitted at rest and when not flying (“resting frequency” RF) of the least horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus pusillus, on a broad geographical scale and in response to local climatic variables. Significant differences in RF were observed among populations throughout the species range in Mainland China, and this variation was positively and significantly related to climate conditions, especially environmental humidity, but the variability was only weakly associated with geographical distance. Sex dimorphism in the RF of R. pusillus may imply that female and male might keep their frequencies within a narrow range for sex recognition. Moreover, bats adjusted resting frequency to humidity, which may imply partitioning diet by prey size or the influence of rainfall noise. The results indicate that bats adjust echolocation call frequency to adapt to environmental conditions. Therefore, environmental selection shape the diversity of echolocation call structure of R. pusillus in geographically separated populations, and conservation efforts should focus on changes in local climate and effects of environmental noise. PMID:20968390

  7. Measuring resilience to climate change: The benefits of forest conservation in the floodplain

    Treesearch

    Carolyn Kousky; Margaret Walls; Ziyan Chu

    2014-01-01

    The economic costs of flooding have increased in the United States over the last several decades, largely as a result of more people and property, and more valuable property, located in harm’s way (Pielke and Downton 2000). In addition, climate models predict increases in the intensity of precipitation events in many locations (Wuebbles and Hayhoe 2004; IPCC 2012). How...

  8. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change and extremes on soil erosion in agricultural landscapes

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Preservation of top soil is critical for the long term sustainability of agricultural productivity, food security, and biodiversity. However, today’s growing population and increasing demand for food and fiber is stressing the agricultural soil and water resources. Climate change imposes additional ...

  9. Implications of climate change for bird conservation in the southwestern U.S

    Treesearch

    Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax...

  10. Prioritization of gene conservation activities in the face of changing climates

    Treesearch

    J. Bradley St.Clair; Andy Bower; Vicky Erickson; Glenn. Howe

    2017-01-01

    Several analyses have been done or are underway to evaluate the vulnerability of individual forest tree species to climate change. Species vulnerability assessments allow managers to allocate limited resources to the management of those species that are most threatened. But we also know that threats to individual populations of species may vary across the landscape,...

  11. User-tailored seasonal forecasts for agriculture - creating socio-economic benefit through climate services in the Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Ventura, Sara; Avalos, Grinia; Rossa, Andrea; Flubacher, Moritz; Gubler, Stefanie; Sedlmeier, Katrin; Dapozzo, Marlene; Garcia, Teresa; Quevedo, Karim; Liniger, Mark; Spirig, Christoph; Rosas, Gabriela; Schwierz, Cornelia

    2017-04-01

    The project Climandes is a twinning project between the Peruvian National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI) and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology of Switzerland (MeteoSwiss) aiming at improving climate services for the Andean Region. It was launched in 2012 as a pilot project of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of WMO. In 2016 a second phase of the project has started. Until now, Peru as all the Andean countries has had only a limited access to climate services, and the few instruments already in place have mostly not been developed in concordance with the user needs. Due to this mismatch, the opportunity to achieve veritable socio-economic benefits (SEB) has been overlooked so far. An additional difficulty is the lack of trained and experienced climatology and meteorology professionals able to develop and provide high quality climate services. Furthermore, the importance of climate information and its far-reaching benefits has not yet been fully acknowledged and embraced by the political decision-makers. The overall goals of the Climandes project are the following:. • Provision of user-tailored climate services for the Andean Region to improve socio- economic benefits for the agricultural sector and for society at large. • Improvement of the capacities of the meteorological service of Peru to generate user-tailored climate services in the agricultural sector. These goals are elaborated within three mutually dependent modules: The first one comprises user-tailored climate products for the agricultural sector in the Peruvian Andes. This includes drought and precipitation monitoring as well as the development of a prototype seasonal prediction system for the region including indices tailored to the agricultural sector. The second module focuses on capacity building, enabling climatology-related professionals and students to develop high-quality climate services for Peru and the Andean Region. Training courses as

  12. Eight years of Conservation Agriculture-based cropping systems research in Eastern Africa to conserve soil and water and mitigate effects of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araya, Tesfay; Nyssen, Jan; Govaerts, Bram; Lanckriet, Sil; Baudron, Frédéric; Deckers, Jozef; Cornelis, Wim

    2014-05-01

    improvements in crop yield became significant. Further, modeling of the sediment budgets shows that total soil loss due to sheet and rill erosion in cropland, when CA would be practiced at large scale in a 180 ha catchment, would reduce to 581 t y-1, instead of 1109 t y-1 under the current farmer practice. Using NASA/GISS Model II precipitation projections of IPCC scenario A1FI, CA is estimated to reduce soil loss and runoff and mitigate the effect of increased rainfall due to climate change. For smallholder farmers in semi-arid agro-ecosystems, CA-based systems constitute a field rainwater and soil conservation improvement strategy that enhances crop and economic productivity and reduces siltation of reservoirs, especially under changing climate. The reduction in draught power requirement would enable a reduction in oxen density and crop residue demand for livestock feed, which would encourage smallholder farmers to increase biomass return to the soil. Adoption of CA-based systems in the study area requires further work to improve smallholder farmers' awareness on benefits, to guarantee high standards during implementation and to design appropriate weed management strategies.

  13. Considering Species Tolerance to Climate Change in Conservation Management at Little Cayman's Coral Reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camp, E.; Manfrino, C.; Smith, D.; Suggett, D.

    2013-05-01

    There is growing evidence demonstrating that climate change, notably increased frequency and intensity of thermal anomalies combined with ocean acidification, will negatively impact the future growth and viability of many reef systems, including those in the Caribbean. One key question that remains unanswered is whether or not there are management options aimed at protecting coral species from these threats. Little Cayman (Cayman Islands) provides a rare opportunity to investigate global climate stressors without the confounding impact of local anthropogenic stressors. Our research has focused on two climate change issues: Firstly, we have identified species-specific coral bleaching susceptibility (and the influence of regulation upon this susceptibility) to thermal anomalies. Species level of vulnerability to thermal anomalies can decrease when grown under variable temperature. Environmental variability may be key in influencing the susceptibility of corals to stress. The second part of our research has therefore addressed the variability in inorganic carbon chemistry that naturally occurs where certain reef building corals exist. We have identified how the inorganic carbon chemistry varies naturally among habitats and thus how corals within these habitats are potentially adapted to future acidification. Spatial, diurnal, lunar and seasonal variability have been identified as important factors with pCO2 values of up to 700-800 μatm and pH values as low as 7.801 for lagoon habitats, showing that some species are already being exposed to typical pCO2 and pH levels expected for the oceans in ~50 years' time. Using an eco-physiological approach, we are exploring how some reef-building corals are able to acclimate to more variable chemistry compared to others and whether this natural capacity installs increased tolerance to future acidification. These eco-physiological studies provide important information that can be utilized in a management framework. The aim of

  14. Toward sustainable water use in North China Plain - Scenario analysis of water conservation strategies in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, X.; Qin, H.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Zheng, C.

    2016-12-01

    North China Plain (NCP), situated in the continental semi-arid climate region, is one of the most densely populated regions in the world, and contributes to over 1/10 of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China. NCP is traditionally a water scarce area where precipitation equals to or less than ET. In recent years, due to rapid population and economic growth, and subsequently significantly larger water demand, the water crisis in this region has deepened. The surface water resources has run dry except for a few canals and reservoirs, and thus the water consumption of NCP is almost entirely dependent on groundwater. It is estimated that the groundwater table has declined at the rate of about 1 m/year in the past decades; therefore, sustainable water use in the NCP is of critical importance. In the present study, we explore the scale of the water scarcity problem in NCP as well as the possible water saving strategies to alleviate the crisis from a modeling approach. Water demand is extremely difficult to estimate due to the lack of actual data. To solve this problem, we use a System Dynamic model, where the resulted data are then used as groundwater pumping in a physically based, distributed and integrated hydrological model. Five scenarios are developed to analyze different water management perspectives: 1) Business as usual, 2) Agricultural water saving, 3) Domestic and industrial water saving, 4) Managed aquifer recharge using water leftover from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and 5) a combination of the above mentioned measures. The hydrological model will predict the overall water balance and water at different hydrological components for the period 2020-2050. Under each scenario, our study also accounts for dry, medium, and wet climate conditions. The results indicate if the current tendency continues, groundwater table will keep declining at the rate of about 1 m/year. Each single conservation measure will not be able to solve the water crisis on

  15. Impact of conservation agriculture on catchment runoff and soil loss under changing climate conditions in May Zeg-zeg (Ethiopia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanckriet, Sil; Araya, Tesfay; Cornelis, Wim; Verfaillie, Els; Poesen, Jean; Govaerts, Bram; Bauer, Hans; Deckers, Jozef; Haile, Mitiku; Nyssen, Jan

    2012-12-01

    SummaryThis study evaluates the practice of conservation agriculture (CA) in the May Zeg-zeg catchment (MZZ; 187 ha) in the North Ethiopian Highlands as a soil management technique for reducing soil loss and runoff, and assesses the consequences of future large-scale implementation on soil and hydrology at catchment-level. The study of such practice is important especially under conditions of climate change, since EdGCM (Educational Global Climate Model) simulation predicts by 2040 an increase in precipitation by more than 100 mm yr-1 in the study area. Firstly, field-saturated infiltration rates, together with soil texture and soil organic carbon contents, were measured. The relation with local topography allows to generate a pedotransfer function for field-saturated infiltration rate, and spatial interpolation with Linear Regression Mapping was used to map field-saturated infiltration rates optimally within the catchment. Secondly, on several farmlands, CA was checked against plain tillage (PT) for values of field-saturated infiltration rates, soil organic carbon, runoff and soil loss. Results show no significant differences for infiltration rates but significant differences for runoff and soil loss (as measured in the period 2005-2011). Runoff coefficients were 30.4% for PT and 18.8% for CA; soil losses were 35.4 t ha-1 yr-1 for PT and 14.4 t ha-1 yr-1 for CA. Thirdly, all collected information was used to predict future catchment hydrological response for full-implementation of CA under the predicted wetter climate (simulation with EdGCM). Curve Numbers for farmlands with CA were calculated. An area-weighted Curve Number allows the simulation of the 2011 rainy season runoff, predicting a total runoff depth of 23.5 mm under CA and 27.9 mm under PT. Furthermore, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation management factor P was calibrated for CA. Results also show the important influence of increased surface roughness on water ponding, modeled with a hydrologic

  16. Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

    2014-08-01

    Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional

  17. Diffusing the Rumors of Inferiority: Creating a Climate of Excellence for Inner-City, College Bound Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welch, Olga M.; And Others

    In order to examine the relationship between the development of academic self-esteem and a climate of excellence in the classroom this study compared the experiences of a group of high school students in their two inner-city Knoxville (Tennessee) high schools with their corresponding experiences in a University of Tennessee (Knoxville) sponsored…

  18. Diffusing the Rumors of Inferiority: Creating a Climate of Excellence for Inner-City, College Bound Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welch, Olga M.; And Others

    In order to examine the relationship between the development of academic self-esteem and a climate of excellence in the classroom this study compared the experiences of a group of high school students in their two inner-city Knoxville (Tennessee) high schools with their corresponding experiences in a University of Tennessee (Knoxville) sponsored…

  19. Comparing Student Perceptions of the Classroom Climate Created by U.S. American and International Teaching Assistants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Kevin R.; Mao, Yuping

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have revealed that American undergraduate students complain about International Teaching Assistants' (ITAs) lack of English proficiency and rate ITAs lower than American Teaching Assistants (ATAs) on teaching evaluations. This study investigates student perceptions of classroom climate to discover how ITAs might overcome students'…

  20. Energy conservation and technological change as factors in climate change - a pulp and paper industry example

    SciTech Connect

    Koleff, A.M.

    1997-12-31

    The Pulp and Paper Industry in the United States is one of this country`s most energy intensive industries with energy generally being the second or third largest direct operating expense in mill budgets. As such, the industry has long had an effective energy conservation program and has recorded impressive reductions in energy use. It is also one of the two most capital intensive industries in the United States and has a long capital investment cycle, which can be estimated by various techniques at between 20 and 30 years. This paper discusses the estimated impact of the industry`s energy conservation achievements on long term emission reductions of greenhouse gases and will show how technological changes within the industry have impacted past emission reductions and the prospects for continued progress through emerging technologies. The importance to the global competitiveness of the industry of implementing technological change designed to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases within the industry`s normal investment cycle will also be reviewed.

  1. Modeling the impact of conservation agriculture on crop production and soil properties in Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moussadek, Rachid; Mrabet, Rachid; Dahan, Rachid; Laghrour, Malika; Lembiad, Ibtissam; ElMourid, Mohamed

    2015-04-01

    In Morocco, rainfed agriculture is practiced in the majority of agricultural land. However, the intensive land use coupled to the irregular rainfall constitutes a serious threat that affect country's food security. Conservation agriculture (CA) represents a promising alternative to produce more and sustainably. In fact, the direct seeding showed high yield in arid regions of Morocco but its extending to other more humid agro-ecological zones (rainfall > 350mm) remains scarce. In order to promote CA in Morocco, differents trials have been installed in central plateau of Morocco, to compare CA to conventional tillage (CT). The yields of the main practiced crops (wheat, lentil and checkpea) under CA and CT were analyzed and compared in the 3 soils types (Vertisol, Cambisol and Calcisol). Also, we studied the effect of CA on soil organic matter (SOM) and soil losses (SL) in the 3 different sites. The APSIM model was used to model the long term impact of CA compared to CT. The results obtained in this research have shown favorable effects of CA on crop production, SOM and soil erosion. Key words: Conservation agriculture, yield, soil properties, modeling, APSIM, Morocco.

  2. Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quackenbush, A.

    2015-12-01

    Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model

  3. Assessing Foundation Insulation Strategies for the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code in Cold Climate New Home Construction

    SciTech Connect

    VonThoma, E.; Ojczyk, C.; Mosiman, G.

    2013-04-01

    While the International Energy Conservation Code 2012 (IECC 2012) has been adopted at a national level, only two cold climate states have adopted it as their new home energy code. Understanding the resistance to adoption is important in assisting more states accept the code and engage deep energy strategies nationwide. This three-part assessment by the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership was focused on foundation insulation R-values for cold climates and the design, construction, and performance implications. In Part 1 a literature review and attendance at stakeholder meetings held in Minnesota were used to assess general stakeholder interest and concerns regarding proposed code changes. Part 2 includes drawings of robust foundation insulation systems that were presented at one Minnesota stakeholder meeting to address critical issues and concerns for adopting best practice strategies. In Part 3 a sampling of builders participated in a telephone interview to gain baseline knowledge on insulation systems used to meet the current energy code and how the same builders propose to meet the new proposed code.

  4. Assessing Foundation Insulation Strategies for the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code in Cold Climate New Home Construction

    SciTech Connect

    VonThoma, E.; Ojczyk, C.; Mosiman, G.

    2013-04-01

    While the International Energy Conservation Code 2012 (IECC 2012) has been adopted at a national level, only two cold climate states have adopted it as their new home energy code. Understanding the resistance to adoption is important in assisting more states accept the code and engage deep energy strategies nationwide. This three-part assessment by the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership was focused on foundation insulation R-values for cold climates and the design, construction, and performance implications. In Part 1 a literature review and attendance at stakeholder meetings held in Minnesota were used to assess general stakeholder interest and concerns regarding proposed code changes. Part 2 includes drawings of robust foundation insulation systems that were presented at one Minnesota stakeholder meeting to address critical issues and concerns for adopting best practice strategies. In Part 3 a sampling of builders participated in a telephone interview to gain baseline knowledge on insulation systems used to meet the current energy code and how the same builders propose to meet the new proposed code.

  5. Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is

  6. Water management, purification, and conservation in arid climates. Volume 2: Water purification

    SciTech Connect

    Goosen, M.F.A.; Shayya, W.H.

    1999-10-01

    Arid regions are already feeling the severe restraining effects of potable water shortages. In coming years, humid and sub-humid regions of the world will also have to face many of these same problems. In the future, serious conflicts may arise not because of a lack of oil, but due to water shortages. Are there solutions to these problems? Aside from increasing public awareness about the importance of water, society needs to take a three pronged approach: water needs to be effectively managed, it needs to be economically purified, and it needs to be conserved. Only by doing these three things in unison can they hope to alleviate the water problems faced by arid regions of the world. This book presents information valuable to seeking, finding and using current technologies to help solve these problems now. Volume 2 presents various methods of purifying water, and includes membrane processes and alternative techniques such as solar desalination.

  7. Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

  8. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    PubMed

    Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

  9. Getting REDD-y: conservation and climate change in Latin America.

    PubMed

    Hall, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    Deforestation in Latin America, especially in the Amazon basin, is a major source of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that contribute to global warming. Protected areas play a vital role in minimizing forest loss and in supplying key environmental services, including carbon sequestration and rainfall regulation, which mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change amid a rising tide of economic development in the region. The area of protected forest has expanded rapidly since 1980 to cover one-fifth of Latin America and more than two-fifths of Amazonia, a region whose rain forest captures some 40 percent of Latin America's carbon emissions. The reserve sector has traditionally suffered from severe underfunding, but the possibility of new resources being generated through financial compensation for "reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation" (REDD) or "avoided deforestation" under a new Kyoto protocol after 2012 could help strengthen the environmental and social roles of protected areas. However, a number of major implementation and governance challenges will need to be addressed.

  10. Strategies for implementing Climate Smart Agriculture and creating marketable Greenhouse emission reduction credits, for small scale rice farmers in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahuja, R.; Kritee, K.; Rudek, J.; Van Sanh, N.; Thu Ha, T.

    2014-12-01

    Industrial agriculture systems, mostly in developed and some emerging economies, are far different from the small holder farms that dot the landscapes in Asia and Africa. At Environmental Defense Fund, along with our partners from non-governmental, corporate, academic and government sectors and farmers, we have worked actively in India and Vietnam for the last four years to better understand how small scale farmers working on rice paddy (and other upland crops) cultivation can best deal with climate change. Some of the questions we have tried to answer are: What types of implementable best practices, both old and new, on small farm systems lend themselves to improved yields, farm incomes, climate resilience and mitigation? Can these practices be replicated everywhere or is the change more landscape and people driven? What are the institutional, cultural, financial and risk-perception related barriers that prevent scaling up of these practices? How do we innovate and overcome these barriers? The research community needs to work more closely together and leverage multiple scientific, economic and policy disciplines to fully answer these questions. In the case of small farm systems, we find that it helps to follow certain steps if the climate-smart (or low carbon) farming programs are to succeed and the greenhouse credits generated are to be marketed: Demographic data collection and plot demarcation Farmer networks and diaries Rigorous baseline determination via surveys Alternative practice determination via consultation with local universities/experts Measurements on representative plots for 3-4 years (including GHG emissions, yields, inputs, economic and environmental savings) to help calibrate biogeochemical models and/or calculate regional emission factors. Propagation of alternative practices across the landscape via local NGOs/governments Recording of parameters necessary to extrapolate representative plot GHG emission reductions to all farmers in a given

  11. An overview of a free-market approach to climate change and conservation.

    PubMed

    Sandor, Richard L; Bettelheim, Eric C; Swingland, Ian R

    2002-08-15

    This paper describes the convergence of environmental and financial markets, reviews the evolution of market-based environmental programmes as an example of the seven-stage evolutionary process witnessed in a variety of markets and summarizes the emergence of greenhouse-gas-mitigation markets and their potential role in advancing land stewardship, biodiversity and other environmental services. Emissions trading has been developed to meet the demand to reduce pollution while avoiding economic disruption. Consistent with the seven-stage pattern of market evolution, the US programme to reduce the damage from acid rain established a standardized environmental commodity, developed 'evidence of ownership' necessary for financial instruments and provided the infrastructure to efficiently transfer title. The success of the system in reducing pollution at low cost has provided a model for other market-based environmental protection initiatives. The demand for cost-effective action to reduce the threat of climate change has initiated the same evolutionary process for markets to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Many of the land- and forest-management practices that can capture and store atmospheric CO(2) can also provide other environmental benefits, such as biodiversity preservation and enhanced water quality. The presence of a carbon-trading market will introduce a clear financial value for capture and mitigation of CO(2) emissions, thus introducing a new source of funding for land stewardship and forest rehabilitation. The market is now emerging through a variety of 'bottom-up' developments being undertaken through governmental, multilateral, private-sector and non-governmental-organization initiatives. The extension of markets to other emerging environmental issues is now underway, and the linkages between environmental sustainability and capital markets are being more deeply understood. The early evidence indicates that environmental sustainability can be compatible with

  12. Assessing the distribution and protection status of two types of cool environment to facilitate their conservation under climate change.

    PubMed

    Gollan, John R; Ramp, Daniel; Ashcroft, Michael B

    2014-04-01

    Strategies to mitigate climate change can protect different types of cool environments. Two are receiving much attention: protection of ephemeral refuges (i.e., places with low maximum temperatures) and of stable refugia (i.e., places that are cool, have a stable environment, and are isolated). Problematically, they are often treated as equivalents. Careful delineation of their qualities is needed to prevent misdirected conservation initiatives; yet, no one has determined whether protecting one protects the other. We mapped both types of cool environments across a large (∼3.4M ha) mixed-use landscape with a geographic information system and conducted a patch analysis to compare their spatial distributions; examine relations between land use and their size and shape; and assess their current protection status. With a modest, but arbitrary, threshold for demarcating both types of cool environments (i.e., values below the 0.025 quantile) there were 146,523 ha of ephemeral refuge (62,208 ha) and stable refugia (62,319 ha). Ephemeral refuges were generally aggregated at high elevation, and more refuge area occurred in protected areas (55,184 ha) than in unprotected areas (7,024 ha). In contrast, stable refugia were scattered across the landscape, and more stable-refugium area occurred on unprotected (40,135 ha) than on protected land (22,184 ha). Although sensitivity analysis showed that varying the thresholds that define cool environments affected outcomes, it also exposed the challenge of choosing a threshold for strategies to address climate change; there is no single value that is appropriate for all of biodiversity. The degree of overlap between ephemeral refuges and stable refugia revealed that targeting only the former for protection on currently unprotected land would capture ∼17% of stable refugia. Targeting only stable refugia would capture ∼54% of ephemeral refuges. Thus, targeting one type of cool environment did not fully protect the other.

  13. Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential.

    PubMed

    Boysen, Lena R; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter

    2017-10-01

    Large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass-derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ̶ but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Genetic conservation planning for forest tree species in Western North America under future climate change: Employing a novel approach to identify conservation gaps

    Treesearch

    L.K. Gray; E.J. Russell; Q.E. Barber; A. Hamann

    2017-01-01

    Among the 17 provinces, territories, and states that comprise western North America, approximately 18 percent of the 8.4 million km2 of forested land base is designated as protected areas to ensure the in situ conservation of forest biodiversity. Jurisdictions vary substantially however, in their responsibilities, protected area coverage, and conservation policies....

  15. Study on the Strategies for the Soil and Water Resource Con-servation of Slopeland in Taiwan in Response to the Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng

    2014-05-01

    Global climate change results in extreme weather, especially ex-treme precipitation in Taiwan. Though the total amount of precipi-tation remains unchanged, the frequency of rainfall return period increases which affects slopeland and causes sediment disaster. In Taiwan, slopeland occupies about 73% of national territory. Under harsh environmental stress, soil and water conservation of slope-land becomes more important. In response to the trends of global-ization impacts of climate change, long term strategic planning be-comes more necessary. This study reviewed international practices and decision making process about soil and water conservation of slopeland; and conducted the compilation and analysis of water and soil conservation related research projects in Taiwan within the past five years. It is necessary for Taiwan to design timely adaptive strategies about conducting the all-inclusive conservation of na-tional territory, management and business operation of watershed based on the existing regulation with the effects of extreme weather induced by climate change and the changes of social-economic en-vironments. In order to realize the policy vision of "Under the premise of multiple uses, operating the sustainable business and management of the water and soil resources in the watershed through territorial planning in response to the climate and so-cial-economic environment change". This study concluded the future tasks for soil and water con-servation: 1.Design and timely amend strategies for soil and wand water conservation in response to extreme weather. 2. Strengthen the planning and operating of the land management and integrated conservation of the water and soil resources of key watershed. 3. Manage and operate the prevention of debris flow disaster and large-scale landslide. 4. Formulate polices, related regulations and assessment indicators of soil and water conservation. 5. Maintain the biodiversity of the slopeland and reduce the ecological footprint

  16. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    PubMed

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

  17. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Shinneman, Douglas J.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate. PMID:26985674

  18. Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

  19. Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).

    PubMed

    Stephens, T; Wilson, S C; Cassidy, F; Bender, D; Gummer, D; Smith, D H V; Lloyd, N; McPherson, J M; Moehrenschlager, A

    2017-10-04

    Given climate change, species' climatically suitable habitats are increasingly expected to shift poleward. Some imperiled populations towards the poleward edge of their species' range might therefore conceivably benefit from climate change. Interactions between climate and population dynamics may be complex, however, with climate exerting effects both indirectly via influence over food availability and more directly, via effects on physiology and its implications for survival and reproduction. A thorough understanding of these interactions is critical for effective conservation management. We therefore examine the relationship between climate, survival and reproduction in Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs, a threatened keystone species in an imperiled ecosystem at the northern edge of the species' range. Our analyses considered eight years of annual mark-recapture data (2007 - 2014) in relation to growing degree days, precipitation, drought status and winter severity, as well as year, sex, age, and body mass. Survival was strongly influenced by the interaction of drought and body mass class and winter temperature severity. Female reproductive status was associated with the interaction of growing degree days and growing season precipitation, with spring precipitation and with winter temperature severity. Results related to body mass suggested that climatic variables exerted their effects via regulation of food availability with potential linked effects of food quality, immunological and behavioural implications, and predation risk. Predictions of future increases in drought conditions in North America's grassland ecosystems has raised concerns for the outlook of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs. Insights gained from the analyses, however, point to mitigating species management options targeted at decoupling the mechanisms by which climate exerts its negative influence. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding the interaction between climate and

  20. Climates

    Treesearch

    John R. Jones; Norbert V. DeByle

    1985-01-01

    The broad range of aspen in North America is evidence of its equally broad tolerance of wide variations in climate (Fowells 1965). Given open space for establishment and not too severe competition from other plants, aspen can survive from timberline on the tundra's edge to very warm temperate climates, and from the wet maritime climates of the coasts to very...

  1. Identifying and Reconciling Risk Across Sectors: The implications of differing views of risk in climate policy, environmental conservation, and the finance sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johns, T.; Henderson, I.; Thoumi, G.

    2014-12-01

    The presence and valuation of risk are commonalities that link the diverse fields of climate change science and policy, environmental conservation, and the financial/investment sector. However, the definition and perception of risks vary widely across these critically linked fields. The "Stranded Asset" concept developed by organizations like the Carbon Tracker Initiative begins to elucidate the links between climate change risk and financial risk. Stranded assets are those that may lose some or all value from climate disruption, changes in demand-side dynamics and/or a more stringent regulatory environment. In order to shift financial flows toward climate change mitigation, emissions-heavy activities that present finance and investment opportunities must also be assessed for their GHG-asset risk attributes in terms of their contribution and vulnerability to climate disruption, as well as other environmental externalities. Until the concept of GHG-asset risk in investment is reconciled with the risks of climate change and environmental conservation, it will not be possible to shift business and financial practices, and unlock private sector resources to address the climate change and conservation challenge. UNEP-FI is researching the application of the concept of Value-atRisk (VaR) to explore links between the financial sector and deforestation/REDD+. The research will test the hypothesis that climate risk is a financial risk, and propose tools to identify and quantify risks associated with unsustainable land-use investments. The tools developed in this research will help investors, managers and governments assess their exposures to the material REDD-related risks in their portfolios. This will inform the development of 'zero net deforestation' investment indices to allow investors to lower the 'deforestation' exposure of 'benchmark' financial indices used by many of the largest money managers. A VaR analysis will be performed, combining the notion of externality

  2. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

    PubMed

    Fortini, Lucas B; Vorsino, Adam E; Amidon, Fred A; Paxton, Eben H; Jacobi, James D

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  3. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

  4. Creating a Healthy Organizational Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolding, James T.; Van Patten, James J.

    1982-01-01

    Four areas of college management responsibility are reviewed: the mission of the organization; administrator/faculty relationship; individual stress; and measuring organizational health. According to Argyris (1980) an organization updates its goals (1) as a consequence of detecting and solving routine problems, and (2) through periodical…

  5. Creating a Climate for Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brennan, Deborah D.

    2015-01-01

    As the first principal of a new Title 1 school in Texas, Deborah Brennan faced the challenge of where to begin improving instruction when a school's population bears no resemblance to the traditional Response to Intervention pyramid (in which 75-85 percent of students flourish with Tier 1 instruction). In contrast, nearly 300 of the 850 students…

  6. Creating a Climate for Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brennan, Deborah D.

    2015-01-01

    As the first principal of a new Title 1 school in Texas, Deborah Brennan faced the challenge of where to begin improving instruction when a school's population bears no resemblance to the traditional Response to Intervention pyramid (in which 75-85 percent of students flourish with Tier 1 instruction). In contrast, nearly 300 of the 850 students…

  7. Creating a Climate of Trust

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pfeifer, R. Scott; Polek, Mag

    2007-01-01

    The trouble started when an anonymous e-mail alleged abuse of power at Centennial High School in Howard County, Maryland. Each week, the local paper reported new developments in the investigation. On top of that, the family of a Black student reported that a culture of racism existed at Centennial. At the end of the year, members of the community…

  8. Creating a Climate of Trust

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pfeifer, R. Scott; Polek, Mag

    2007-01-01

    The trouble started when an anonymous e-mail alleged abuse of power at Centennial High School in Howard County, Maryland. Each week, the local paper reported new developments in the investigation. On top of that, the family of a Black student reported that a culture of racism existed at Centennial. At the end of the year, members of the community…

  9. Economic incentives for rain forest conservation across scales.

    PubMed

    Kremen, C; Niles, J O; Dalton, M G; Daily, G C; Ehrlich, P R; Fay, J P; Grewal, D; Guillery, R P

    2000-06-09

    Globally, tropical deforestation releases 20 to 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Conserving forests could reduce emissions, but the cost-effectiveness of this mechanism for mitigation depends on the associated opportunity costs. We estimated these costs from local, national, and global perspectives using a case study from Madagascar. Conservation generated significant benefits over logging and agriculture locally and globally. Nationally, however, financial benefits from industrial logging were larger than conservation benefits. Such differing economic signals across scales may exacerbate tropical deforestation. The Kyoto Protocol could potentially overcome this obstacle to conservation by creating markets for protection of tropical forests to mitigate climate change.

  10. Quantifying the effectiveness of conservation measures to control the spread of anthropogenic hybridization in stream salmonids: a climate adaptation case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Boyer, Matthew; Jones, Leslie A.; Steed, Amber; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the effectiveness of management actions to mitigate the effects of changing climatic conditions (i.e., climate adaptation) can be difficult, yet critical for conservation. We used population genetic data from 1984 to 2011 to assess the degree to which ambient climatic conditions and targeted suppression of sources of nonnative Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have influenced the spread of introgressive hybridization in native populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii lewisi. We found rapid expansion in the spatial distribution and proportion of nonnative genetic admixture in hybridized populations from 1984 to 2004, but minimal change since 2004. The spread of hybridization was negatively correlated with the number of streamflow events in May that exceeded the 75th percentile of historic flows (r = −0.98) and positively correlated with August stream temperatures (r = 0.89). Concomitantly, suppression data showed a 60% decline in catch per unit effort for fish with a high proportion of Rainbow Trout admixture, rendering some uncertainty as to the relative strength of factors controlling the spread of hybridization. Our results illustrate the importance of initiating management actions to mitigate the potential effects of climate change, even where data describing the effectiveness of such actions are initially limited but the risks are severe.

  11. Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lunine, J.; Murdin, P.

    2000-11-01

    Earth's climate may be defined as the global physical condition, averaged over some period of time (typically decades or longer), of the EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN and ice sheets. It is the presence of a relatively dense atmosphere—third among the solid bodies of the solar system—that makes Earth habitable. Without the blanketing of infrared energy radiated from Earth's surface and lower atmospher...

  12. Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

    PubMed

    Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

    2017-02-26

    The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

  13. Shifting climate, altered niche, and a dynamic conservation strategy for yellow-cedar in the North Pacific coastal rainforest

    Treesearch

    Paul E. Hennon; David V. D' Amore; Paul G. Schaberg; Dustin T. Wittwer; Colin S. Shanley

    2012-01-01

    The extensive mortality of yellow-cedar along more than 1000 kilometers of the northern Pacific coast of North America serves as a leading example of climate effects on a forest tree species. In this article, we document our approaches to resolving the causes of tree death, which we explain as a cascade of interacting topographic, forest-structure, and microclimate...

  14. Hydroregime prediction models for ephemeral groundwater-driven sinkhole wetlands: a planning tool for climate change and amphibian conservation

    Treesearch

    C. H. Greenberg; S. Goodrick; J. D. Austin; B. R. Parresol

    2015-01-01

    Hydroregimes of ephemeral wetlands affect reproductive success of many amphibian species and are sensitive to altered weather patterns associated with climate change.We used 17 years of weekly temperature, precipitation, and waterdepth measurements for eight small, ephemeral, groundwaterdriven sinkhole wetlands in Florida sandhills to develop a hydroregime predictive...

  15. Science You Can Use Bulletin: Climate change, crowd-sourcing, and conserving aquatic biotas in the Rocky Mountains this century

    Treesearch

    Sarah Hines; Dan Isaak; Charles Luce; Michael K. Young

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is causing rapid changes to stream habitats across the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest as warmer air temperatures and changes in precipitation increase stream temperatures, alter stream hydrology, and increase the extent and magnitude of natural disturbances related to droughts and wildfires. These changes are affecting trout, salmon, and other...

  16. Convergence of agricultural intensification and climate change in the midwestern United States: Implications for soil and water conservation

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Society faces substantial challenges to expand food production while adapting to climatic changes and ensuring ecosystem services are maintained. A convergence of these issues is occurring in the Midwestern United States, i.e., the ‘cornbelt’ region that provides substantial grain supplies to world ...

  17. Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. Sphenostylis stenocarpa (ex. A. Rich.) Harms., a Fading Genetic Resource in a Changing Climate: Prerequisite for Conservation and Sustainability.

    PubMed

    Nnamani, Catherine Veronica; Ajayi, Sunday Adesola; Oselebe, Happiness Ogba; Atkinson, Christopher John; Igboabuchi, Anastasia Ngozi; Ezigbo, Eucharia Chizoba

    2017-07-12

    The southeastern part of Nigeria is one of the major hotspots of useful plant genetic resources. These endemic species are associated with a rich indigenous knowledge and cultural diversity in relation to their use and conservation. Sphenostylis stenocarpa (ex. A. Rich.) Harms., (African Yam Bean (AYB)), is one such crop within the family of Fabaceae. Its nutritional and eco-friendly characteristics have value in ameliorating malnutrition, hidden hunger and environmental degradation inherent in resource-poor rural and semi-rural communities throughout Africa. However, lack of information from the custodians of this crop is limiting its sustainable development. Therefore, ethnobotanical surveys on the diversity, uses, and constraints limiting the cultivation and use of the crop in southeastern Nigeria were carried out. Five-hundred respondents were randomly selected and data collected through oral interviews and focused group discussion (FGD). Semi-structured questionnaires (SSQ) were also used to elicit information from a spectrum of AYB users comprising community leaders, farmers, market women and consumers in five States. Results showed that the majority of the respondents lacked formal education and were of the age group of 40-50 years, while the female gender dominated with limited access to land and extension officers. Seed coat colour largely determined utilization. Long cooking time, requirement for staking materials, aging of farmers and low market demand were among the major constraints limiting further cultivation and utilization of AYB. In-situ conservation was by hanging dried fruits by the fireside, beside the house, storing in earthenware, calabash gourds, cans and bottles. It is concluded that there is urgent need to scale up conservation through robust linkages between contemporary scientific domains and indigenous peoples in order to harness and incorporate the rich indigenous knowledge in local communities for enhanced scientific knowledge

  19. Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maynard, J. A.; Marshall, P. A.; Johnson, J. E.; Harman, S.

    2010-06-01

    Climate change is now considered the greatest long-term threat to coral reefs, with some future change inevitable despite mitigation efforts. Managers must therefore focus on supporting the natural resilience of reefs, requiring that resilient reefs and reef regions be identified. We develop a framework for assessing resilience and trial it by applying the framework to target management responses to climate change on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The framework generates a resilience score for a site based on the evaluation of 19 differentially weighted indicators known or thought to confer resilience to coral reefs. Scores are summed, and sites within a region are ranked in terms of (1) their resilience relative to the other sites being assessed, and (2) the extent to which managers can influence their resilience. The framework was applied to 31 sites in Keppel Bay of the southern Great Barrier Reef, which has a long history of disturbance and recovery. Resilience and ‘management influence potential’ were both found to vary widely in Keppel Bay, informing site selection for the staged implementation of resilience-based management strategies. The assessment framework represents a step towards making the concept of resilience operational to reef managers and conservationists. Also, it is customisable, easy to teach and implement and effective in building support among local communities and stakeholders for management responses to climate change.

  20. Modelling Coral Reef Futures to Inform Management: Can Reducing Local-Scale Stressors Conserve Reefs under Climate Change?

    PubMed Central

    Gurney, Georgina G.; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Aliño, Perry M.; Johnson, Craig R.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

  1. Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

    PubMed

    Gurney, Georgina G; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C; Aliño, Perry M; Johnson, Craig R

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

  2. Review of Strategies for Thermal Efficiency in Landscape Planning of Cities for Conservation of Energy and Enhanced Climatic Resilience to Urban Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imam, Aabshar U. K.; Banerjee, Uttam Kumar

    2017-08-01

    Thermal discomfort, increased energy consumption, and heat related stress are some of the most prominent consequences of urban warming. Instances of heat related deaths have been reported; the elderly and the poor remain especially vulnerable. Urban greening has often been cited as an economically efficient method for inducing ambient cooling. Consequently, increased impetus is given to provision of public green spaces. However, a general increase in urban green cover especially in the form of parks and green spaces may be inadequate to achieve desired results. This article serves to highlight the thermal heterogeneity of landcape elements and stresses on the need for strategic shade provision. The originality of this study lies in the fact that it provides a comparative review of energy conservation potential of public and private green spaces. It is found that large parks may not have substantial cooling effect on the indoor built environment. Moreover, people tend to spend more time indoors than outdoors. Thus the need for greening of private areas has become an undeniable climatic necessity. The potential of shade trees, green walls, and roof gardens for cooling of built environment are discussed with quantitative evidences of their thermal and economic benefits. Parameters incurring cost expenditure and weaknesses of the greening strategies are enumerated for enabling prudent selection/implementation of strategies. Proposals are generated to improve climatic resilience to urban warming and for diligent planning of cities.

  3. Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues.

    PubMed

    Ostrowski, Marie-France; Prosperi, Jean-Marie; David, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives.

  4. Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues

    PubMed Central

    Prosperi, Jean-Marie; David, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives. PMID:27100790

  5. Soil conservation under climate change: use of recovery biomasses on agricultural soil subjected to the passage of agricultural machinery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergonzoli, S.; Beni, C.; Servadio, P.

    2012-04-01

    Biomass administration is a good practice to preserve the soil fertility in climate change conditions. A test regarding the use of compost derived by wine distillation residues was conducted in the coastal area sited west of Rome, on a sandy soil in continuous cropping with carrot, two cycles per year, with a consequent deep environmental impact. The soil was fertilized with different systems: T = unfertilized soil; F = fertigation 200 kg N ha-1; FC = fertigation 100 kg N ha-1 plus half agronomic dose of compost 4 t ha-1; C2 = double compost dose 16 t ha-1; C4 = quadruple compost dose 32 t ha-1. The functional qualities of the soil, subjected to the passage of agricultural machineries, were determined through the following parameters: bulk density, shear strength, water infiltration rate, organic matter and nitrogen content, cation exchange capacity. At the summer harvest, yield of carrots, their sugar content, firmness and nutrients concentration were determined. The plots only amended (C2 and C4), compared to other treatments, presented lower bulk density (1.36 and 1.28 Mg m-3 respectively), higher shear strength (9 and 8 kPa respectively), as well as increased hydraulic conductivity. In these treatments (C2 and C4), in addition, occurred a higher content of organic matter (0.95 and 1.07% respectively) and nitrogen (0.11 and 0.12% respectively) and increased CEC (541 and 556 respectively) respect to the T treatment that was 521 meq 100g-1. In plots T and F, the organic matter content was reduced at the end of the field test. The yield of carrots increased in FC, C2, and C4, compared to the other treatments. In plots C4, however, morphological changes were induced in approximately 30% of tap-roots, due to the excessive compost dose. In treatments C2 and C4 was observed a reduction of the concentration of Na in the roots, as opposed to the higher concentration of Ca and K and trace elements. The administration of compost has also induced the increase of soluble

  6. A project in two parts: Developing fire histories for the eastern U.S. and creating a climate-based continental fire frequency model to fill data gaps

    Treesearch

    Richard Guyette; Michael Stambaugh; Daniel. Dey

    2011-01-01

    Tree-ring dated fire scars provide long-term records of fire frequency, giving land managers valuable baseline information about the fire regimes that existed prior to Euro-American settlement. However, for the East, fire history data prove difficult to acquire because the generally moister climate of the region causes rapid decay of wood. In an endeavor to fill data...

  7. Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pauchard, Aníbal; Albihn, Ann; Alexander, Jake; Burgess, Treena; Daehler, Curt; Essl, Franz; Evengard, Birgitta; Greenwood, Greg; Haider, Sylvia; Lenoir, Jonathan; McDougall, K.; Milbau, Ann; Muths, Erin L.; Nunez, Martin; Pellissier, Lois; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa; Robertson, Mark; Sanders, Nathan; Kueffer, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop ‘Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges’ (Flen, Sweden, 1–3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion—both non-native and native—at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.

  8. Atmospheric composition and micro-climate in the Alhambra monument, Granada (Spain), in the context of preventive conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horemans, B.; Schalm, O.; De Wael, K.; Cardell, C.; Van Grieken, R.

    2012-07-01

    The world famous Alhambra monument in Granada, Southern Spain, listed as UNESCO world cultural heritage since 1984, represents probably the most beautiful example of Islamic art and architecture from the Middle Ages in Europe. It is visited by ca. 2 million people annually. Granada is situated in a natural basin, surrounded by mountains with altitudes up to 3500 m. Due to this topography and the prevailing low wind speeds, pollution-derived and especially traffic-derived particulate matter often accumulates in the urban air. In order to evaluate the potential conservation risks from the surrounding air, the atmospheric composition in the Alhambra monument was evaluated. Indoor temperature and relative humidity fluctuations were evaluated for their potential degenerative effects. Furthermore, the atmospheric composition in the Alhambra was analyzed in terms of inorganic gases (NO2, SO2, O3, and NH3) and black carbon. It was found that the open architecture protected the indoor environments from developing a potentially harmful microclimate, such as the build-up of humidity resulting from the huge number of daily tourists. On the downside, the strong ventilation made the indoor air hardly different from outdoor air, as characterized by strong diurnal temperature and relative humidity gradients and high traffic-derived pollutant levels.

  9. Creating Poetry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drury, John

    Encouraging exploration and practice, this book offers hundreds of exercises and numerous tips covering every step involved in creating poetry. Each chapter is a self-contained unit offering an overview of material in the chapter, a definition of terms, and poetry examples from well-known authors designed to supplement the numerous exercises.…

  10. Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Jenny L; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Nuñez, Tristan A; Theobald, David M

    2016-06-28

    The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species' ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates.

  11. Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape

    PubMed Central

    Lawler, Joshua J.; McRae, Brad H.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Theobald, David M.

    2016-01-01

    The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species’ ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates. PMID:27298349

  12. Impacts of Climate Change at Watershed Scale: Creating an Ecological Basis for "Smart Growth" and Economic Development in the Post-industrial Lehigh Valley of Eastern PA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, B.; Felzer, B.; Pazzaglia, F.; Sahagian, D.

    2009-05-01

    As modeling of global climate change matures and regional projections regarding regional variability become viable, the scales of climate impact analysis and regional decision-making begin to converge. This convergence provides a critical new challenge for both the climate modeling and policy communities- "How can projected climate change insights at watershed scale most effectively inform decisions regarding land use, zoning, and growth management?" This issue is particularly critical in regions that were formerly heavily industrialized and developed, and that are now finding new avenues for economic growth in the wake of massive clear-cutting, mining, and heavy industry of the 19th and 20th centuries. The Lehigh Valley is a watershed defining a single ecosystem that contains 800,000 people, 321 square miles of croplands and 95 square miles of urban areas, with the remainder of the watershed at various successional stages after massive forest clear-cutting of the last two centuries. Many of the industries that fueled the industrial revolution were based in the Lehigh Valley, and their development came at an environmental cost that was not then recognized, but that left a legacy of mine-scarred lands, acid mine drained streams, soil and water contamination, and a derelict industrial infrastructure that state and local governments have only recently begun to address. Before these institutions can plan for redevelopment of brownfields, regional planning for housing and commercial development, and preservation of forested and agricultural lands, it is first necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology, productivity, and other ecosystems functions, and to provide this information to decision-makers responsible for environmentally sustainable development and regional planning. "Smart Growth" has become a catch phrase for regional development that is sensitive to social, economic, political, and historical goals, as well as ecological

  13. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses.

  14. Cover crops as a gateway to greater conservation in Iowa?: Integrating crop models, field trials, economics and farmer perspectives regarding soil resilience in light of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roesch-McNally, G. E.; Basche, A.; Tyndall, J.; Arbuckle, J. G.; Miguez, F.; Bowman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Scientists predict a number of climate changes for the US Midwest with expected declines in crop productivity as well as eco-hydrological impacts. More frequent extreme rain events particularly in the spring may well increase saturated soils thus complicating agronomic interests and also exacerbate watershed scale impairments (e.g., sediment, nutrient loss). In order to build more resilient production systems in light of climate change, farmers will increasingly need to implement conservation practices (singularly or more likely in combination) that enable farmers to manage profitable businesses yet mitigate consequential environmental impacts that have both in-field and off-farm implications. Cover crops are empirically known to promote many aspects of soil and water health yet even the most aggressive recent estimates show that only 1-2% of the total acreage in Iowa have been planted to cover crops. In order to better understand why farmers are reluctant to adopt cover crops across Iowa we combined agronomic and financial data from long-term field trials, working farm trials and model simulations so as to present comprehensive data-driven information to farmers in focus group discussions in order to understand existing barriers, perceived benefits and responses to the information presented. Four focus groups (n=29) were conducted across Iowa in four geographic regions. Focus group discussions help explore the nuance of farmers' responses to modeling outputs and their real-life agronomic realities, thus shedding light on the social and psychological barriers with cover crop utilization. Among the key insights gained, comprehensive data-driven research can influence farmer perspectives on potential cover crop impacts to cash crop yields, experienced costs are potentially quite variable, and having field/farm benefits articulated in economic terms are extremely important when farmers weigh the opportunity costs associated with adopting new practices. Our work

  15. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinkney, Alfred E.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Evers, David C.; Hooper, Michael J.; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Marshall, Harold G.; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A.; Schmerfeld, John J.; Sparling, Donald W.

    2015-01-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures

  16. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region.

    PubMed

    Pinkney, Alfred E; Driscoll, Charles T; Evers, David C; Hooper, Michael J; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W; Lazarus, Rebecca S; Marshall, Harold G; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A; Schmerfeld, John; Sparling, Donald W

    2015-07-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and

  17. The Northeast Climate Science Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratnaswamy, M. J.; Palmer, R. N.; Morelli, T.; Staudinger, M.; Holland, A. R.

    2013-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. Recognizing the critical threats, unique climate challenges, and expansive and diverse nature of the northeast region, the University of Massachusetts Amherst, College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Marine Biological Laboratory, University of Minnesota, University of Missouri Columbia, and University of Wisconsin-Madison have formed a consortium to host the NE CSC. This partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey climate science center network provides wide-reaching expertise, resources, and established professional collaborations in both climate science and natural and cultural resources management. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting the regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach throughout the northeast region. Thus, the NE CSC conducts research, both through its general funds and its annual competitive award process, that responds to the needs of natural resource management partners that exist, in part or whole, within the NE CSC bounds. This domain includes the North Atlantic, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, Eastern Tallgrass and Big Rivers, and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), among other management stakeholders. For example, researchers are developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; conducting a Designing Sustainable Landscapes project to assess the capability of current and potential future landscapes in the Northeast to provide integral ecosystems and suitable habitat for a suite of

  18. Nature Conservation in Bophuthatswana.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Motaung, Maria

    1992-01-01

    This presentation to the International Girl Guides Jamboree, July 1991, addressed the issue of nature conservation and the role of the National Parks and Wildlife Management Board of Bophuthatswana in creating parks and conserving wildlife. Describes three national parks and the boards' achievements in preserving wildlife. (MDH)

  19. Nature Conservation in Bophuthatswana.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Motaung, Maria

    1992-01-01

    This presentation to the International Girl Guides Jamboree, July 1991, addressed the issue of nature conservation and the role of the National Parks and Wildlife Management Board of Bophuthatswana in creating parks and conserving wildlife. Describes three national parks and the boards' achievements in preserving wildlife. (MDH)

  20. MASSACHUSETTS DIVISION OF FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE ADAPTATION PLANNING USING AN EXPERT PANEL BASED HABITAT VULNERABLITY ASSESSMENT John O'Leary, MA Div. of Fisheries and Wildlife and Hector Galbraith, Ph d. Climate Change Initiative, Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Leary, J. A.; Galbraith, H.

    2010-12-01

    We are using the results from a recently completed Habitat Vulnerability Assessment (HVA) for adaptation planning within the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife. We used Regional Downscale Climate Projections to provide exposure information for the assessment and an Expert Panel of biologists to provide information on the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the habitat types we assessed. We estimated the vulnerability of 22 key habitat types which were identified in the State Wildlife Action Plan (SWAP). Results of the expert panel based HVA include a relative ranking of vulnerability to climate change for these habitats within Massachusetts, a confidence score for the estimated vulnerability for each habitat type evaluated and a narrative identifying the factors which influence the vulnerability of the habitat. We also evaluated the vulnerability of the Species in Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) from the SWAP to climate change conditions. The SGCN are linked to their primary habitat types. The HVA results along with recommendations from the National Academies Report: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change will inform “climate smart” adaptation strategies for agency management, acquisition, and research and monitoring programs that build on and do not replace existing implementation strategies. We believe that the adaptation planning process that we outline in this presentation could serve as a model for resource agencies and others who are in the process of developing their response to anticipated impacts from climate change conditions. We are also engaged in a collaborative effort to conduct a Regional Habitat Vulnerability Assessment (RHVA). Results form the RHVA will provide the MDFW with the ability to assess adaptation strategies based on regional need.

  1. Creating Geoscience Leaders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buskop, J.; Buskop, W.

    2013-12-01

    The United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization recognizes 21 World Heritage in the United States, ten of which have astounding geological features: Wrangell St. Elias National Park, Olympic National Park, Mesa Verde National Park, Chaco Canyon, Glacier National Park, Carlsbad National Park, Mammoth Cave, Great Smokey Mountains National Park, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, and Everglades National Park. Created by a student frustrated with fellow students addicted to smart phones with an extreme lack of interest in the geosciences, one student visited each World Heritage site in the United States and created one e-book chapter per park. Each chapter was created with original photographs, and a geological discovery hunt to encourage teen involvement in preserving remarkable geological sites. Each chapter describes at least one way young adults can get involved with the geosciences, such a cave geology, glaciology, hydrology, and volcanology. The e-book describes one park per chapter, each chapter providing a geological discovery hunt, information on how to get involved with conservation of the parks, geological maps of the parks, parallels between archaeological and geological sites, and how to talk to a ranger. The young author is approaching UNESCO to publish the work as a free e-book to encourage involvement in UNESCO sites and to prove that the geosciences are fun.

  2. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

    2016-08-11

    Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

  3. Conservation and behavioral neuroendocrinology.

    PubMed

    Cockrem, J F

    2005-11-01

    The total number of threatened species of vertebrates is likely to be more than 10,000, with approximately one quarter of the world's mammal species, one eighth of the birds and one third of the amphibians threatened with extinction. The rate of loss of animal species and hence of biodiversity is increasing and may become even greater as ecosystems become affected by climate change due to global warming. Behavioral neuroendocrinology, which considers interactions between behavior and neuroendocrine function in animals from all vertebrate taxa, can contribute to animal conservation. Research with laboratory animals can address questions in basic biology relevant to conservation and develop methods for use with threatened animals. Field work with free-living animals considers the basic biology of new species and the use of endocrine tools to assess the susceptibility of species to threats. Non-invasive measurements of hormone concentrations, especially fecal steroids, are extensively used to assess reproductive function and the stress status of animals in captive breeding programs and in the wild. Biodiversity and natural selection both depend on individual variation, and conservation programs often work with animals on an individual basis. The consideration of data from individuals is essential in conservation endocrinology. Direct contributions to conservation programs are challenging as study situations are determined by practical conservation concerns. Indirect contributions such as the provision of scientific input to conservation plans and participation in public education programs offer significant benefits for conservation programs. Directly and indirectly, there are many opportunities for behavioral neuroendocrinologists to contribute to conservation.

  4. Conservation of fern spores

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Ferns are a diverse and important group of plants, but diversity of species and populations are at risk from increasing social pressures, loss of habitat and climate change. Ex situ conservation is a useful strategy to limit decline in genetic diversity and requires technologies to preserve fern ger...

  5. From daily to sub-daily time steps - Creating a high temporal and spatial resolution climate reference data set for hydrological modeling and bias-correction of RCM data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul R.; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. It builds on the conjoint analysis of a large ensemble of the CRCM5, driven by 50 members of the CanESM2, and the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change on the dynamics of extreme events. A critical point in the entire project is the preparation of a meteorological reference dataset with the required temporal (1-6h) and spatial (500m) resolution to be able to better evaluate hydrological extreme events in mesoscale river basins. For Bavaria a first reference data set (daily, 1km) used for bias-correction of RCM data was created by combining raster based data (E-OBS [1], HYRAS [2], MARS [3]) and interpolated station data using the meteorological interpolation schemes of the hydrological model WaSiM [4]. Apart from the coarse temporal and spatial resolution, this mosaic of different data sources is considered rather inconsistent and hence, not applicable for modeling of hydrological extreme events. Thus, the objective is to create a dataset with hourly data of temperature, precipitation, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed, which is then used for bias-correction of the RCM data being used as driver for hydrological modeling in the river basins. Therefore, daily data is disaggregated to hourly time steps using the 'Method of fragments' approach [5], based on available training stations. The disaggregation chooses fragments of daily values from observed hourly datasets, based on similarities in magnitude and behavior of previous and subsequent events. The choice of a certain reference station (hourly data, provision of fragments) for disaggregating daily station data (application

  6. Creating a Climate for Service Learning Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeandron, Carol; Robinson, Gail

    2010-01-01

    The American Association of Community Colleges (AACC) defines service learning as the combination of classroom instruction with community service, focusing on critical, reflective thinking as well as personal and civic responsibility. Service learning programs involve students in activities that address local, community-identified needs while…

  7. It's about Relationships: Creating Positive School Climates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashley, Dana M.

    2016-01-01

    When teachers wonder "What should I do?" in response to challenging student behaviors, the answers are not as simple as they might seem. What teachers can do also depends, at least in part, on external demands (e.g., discipline codes, principal expectations, time pressures on teaching content and testing) that can either facilitate or…

  8. USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...

  9. From dominance to detente in the face of climate change: Agreements beyond boundaries with indigenous nations

    Treesearch

    Linda Moon Stumpff

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores frameworks for expanding agreements between indigenous peoples, governments, and partner organizations to conserve and restore wild and protected areas impacted by climate change. From the Indigenous Peoples Treaty Project to the expansion of Federal nation to nation consultation with Tribes in the United States, new initiatives create models for...

  10. The Climate of Book Selection: The Art of the Possible; Proceedings of a Workshop.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riggs, Neil R., Ed.

    Social change in the 1960's has created a new climate for literary expression in the coming years. In order to emphasize the change in reading taste, and the corresponding change in writing fiction, the Oregon State Library sponsored a workshop dealing with book selection in this new era. Many communities in Oregon are conservative in their…

  11. Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity.

    PubMed

    Anderson, M G; Comer, P J; Beier, P; Lawler, J J; Schloss, C A; Buttrick, S; Albano, C M; Faith, D P

    2015-06-01

    Geodiversity has been used as a surrogate for biodiversity when species locations are unknown, and this utility can be extended to situations where species locations are in flux. Recently, scientists have designed conservation networks that aim to explicitly represent the range of geophysical environments, identifying a network of physical stages that could sustain biodiversity while allowing for change in species composition in response to climate change. Because there is no standard approach to designing such networks, we compiled 8 case studies illustrating a variety of ways scientists have approached the challenge. These studies show how geodiversity has been partitioned and used to develop site portfolios and connectivity designs; how geodiversity-based portfolios compare with those derived from species and communities; and how the selection and combination of variables influences the results. Collectively, they suggest 4 key steps when using geodiversity to augment traditional biodiversity-based conservation planning: create land units from species-relevant variables combined in an ecologically meaningful way; represent land units in a logical spatial configuration and integrate with species locations when possible; apply selection criteria to individual sites to ensure they are appropriate for conservation; and develop connectivity among sites to maintain movements and processes. With these considerations, conservationists can design more effective site portfolios to ensure the lasting conservation of biodiversity under a changing climate. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Using strategic foresight to assess conservation opportunity.

    PubMed

    Cook, Carly N; Wintle, Bonnie C; Aldrich, Stephen C; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-12-01

    The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure to anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time-consuming solutions. Proactive conservation requires forward-looking approaches to decision making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by the past. Strategic foresight provides a structured process for considering the most desirable future and for mapping the most efficient and effective approaches to promoting that future with tools that facilitate creative thinking. The process involves 6 steps: setting the scope, collecting inputs, analyzing signals, interpreting the information, determining how to act, and implementing the outcomes. Strategic foresight is ideal for seeking, recognizing, and realizing conservation opportunities because it explicitly encourages a broad-minded, forward-looking perspective on an issue. Despite its potential value, the foresight process is rarely used to address conservation issues, and previous attempts have generally failed to influence policy. We present the strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can be used to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities. Scanning is an important tool for collecting and organizing diverse streams of information and can be used to recognize new opportunities and those that could be created. Scenario planning explores how current trends, drivers of change, and key uncertainties might influence the future and can be used to identify barriers to opportunities. Backcasting is used to map out a path to a goal and can determine how to remove barriers to opportunities. We highlight how the foresight process was used to identify conservation opportunities during the development of a strategic plan to address climate change in New York

  13. Acknowledging conservation trade-offs and embracing complexity.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Paul D; Adams, William M; Brosius, J Peter; Zia, Asim; Bariola, Nino; Dammert, Juan Luis

    2011-04-01

    There is a growing recognition that conservation often entails trade-offs. A focus on trade-offs can open the way to more complete consideration of the variety of positive and negative effects associated with conservation initiatives. In analyzing and working through conservation trade-offs, however, it is important to embrace the complexities inherent in the social context of conservation. In particular, it is important to recognize that the consequences of conservation activities are experienced, perceived, and understood differently from different perspectives, and that these perspectives are embedded in social systems and preexisting power relations. We illustrate the role of trade-offs in conservation and the complexities involved in understanding them with recent debates surrounding REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation), a global conservation policy designed to create incentives to reduce tropical deforestation. Often portrayed in terms of the multiple benefits it may provide: poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and climate-change mitigation; REDD may involve substantial trade-offs. The gains of REDD may be associated with a reduction in incentives for industrialized countries to decrease carbon emissions; relocation of deforestation to places unaffected by REDD; increased inequality in places where people who make their livelihood from forests have insecure land tenure; loss of biological and cultural diversity that does not directly align with REDD measurement schemes; and erosion of community-based means of protecting forests. We believe it is important to acknowledge the potential trade-offs involved in conservation initiatives such as REDD and to examine these trade-offs in an open and integrative way that includes a variety of tools, methods, and points of view. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. The Conservation Fund

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-08-01

    Create Walkable Neighborhoods 3. Encourage Community and Stakeholder Collaboration 4. Foster Distinctive, Attractive Communities with a Strong Sense of...Network www.smartgrowth.org Smart Growth America www.smartgrowthamerica.net The International City /County Management Assn. www.icma.org The Conservation

  15. Scale in conservation planning

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Conservation planning has been widely embraced as a method to efficiently allocate limited resources to those aspects of biodiversity most in need of protection or management. However, in order to create successful strategies for long-term biodiversity protection and sustainability, explicit conside...

  16. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change on soil erosion? An assessment from winter wheat cropland in the Southern Great Plains of the United States

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    With the need to increase crop production to meet the needs of growing population, protecting the productivity of our soil resource is essential. However, conservationists are concerned that conservation practices that were effective in the past may no longer be effective in the future under project...

  17. Collections Conservation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeCandido, Robert

    Collections conservation is an approach to the preservation treatment of books and book-like materials that is conceptualized and organized in terms of large groups of materials. This guide is intended to enable a library to evaluate its current collections conservation activities. The introduction describes collections conservation and gives…

  18. The Nanchang communication about the potential for the implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...

  19. Modeling climate change effects on runoff and soil erosion in southeastern Arizona rangelands and implications for mitigation with rangeland conservation practices

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change is expected to impact runoff and soil erosion on rangelands in the southwestern United States. This study was done to evaluate the potential impacts of precipitation changes on soil erosion and surface runoff in southeastern Arizona using seven GCM models with three emission scenarios...

  20. The Guanajuato Communication about the Potential for Implementation of Conservation Practices for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation to Achieve Food Security in Mexico During the 21st Century

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The scientific literature reports that climate change will impact weather in North America, with projections for a drier and hotter southeastern United States and northwestern Mexico. The areas of Mexico that are projected to be impacted cover important grain areas of the country. Additionally, seve...

  1. Using Hydrated Salt Phase Change Materials for Residential Air Conditioning Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Conservation in Coastal and Transitional Climates in the State of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyoung Ok

    The recent rapid economic and population growth in the State of California have led to a significant increase in air conditioning use, especially in areas of the State with coastal and transitional climates. This fact makes that the electric peak demand be dominated by air conditioning use of residential buildings in the summer time. This extra peak demand caused by the use of air conditioning equipment lasts only a few days out of the year. As a result, unavoidable power outages have occurred when electric supply could not keep up with such electric demand. This thesis proposed a possible solution to this problem by using building thermal mass via phase change materials to reduce peak air conditioning demand loads. This proposed solution was tested via a new wall called Phase Change Frame Wall (PCFW). The PCFW is a typical residential frame wall in which Phase Change Materials (PCMs) were integrated to add thermal mass. The thermal performance of the PCFWs was first evaluated, experimentally, in two test houses, built for this purpose, located in Lawrence, KS and then via computer simulations of residential buildings located in coastal and transitional climates in California. In this thesis, a hydrated salt PCM was used, which was added in concentrations of 10% and 20% by weight of the interior sheathing of the walls. Based on the experimental results, under Lawrence, KS weather, the PCFWs at 10% and 20% of PCM concentrations reduced the peak heat transfer rates by 27.0% and 27.3%, on average, of all four walls, respectively. Simulated results using California climate data indicated that PCFWs would reduce peak heat transfer rates by 8% and 19% at 10% PCM concentration and 12.2% and 27% at 20% PCM concentration for the coastal and transitional climates, respectively. Furthermore, the PCFWs, at 10% PCM concentration, would reduce the space cooling load and the annual energy consumption by 10.4% and 7.2%, on average in both climates, respectively.

  2. Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowie, Jonathan

    2001-05-01

    In recent years climate change has become recognised as the foremost environmental problem of the twenty-first century. Not only will climate change potentially affect the multibillion dollar energy strategies of countries worldwide, but it also could seriously affect many species, including our own. A fascinating introduction to the subject, this textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. It will be of interest to a wide range of people, from students in the life sciences who need a brief overview of the basics of climate science, to atmospheric science, geography, and environmental science students who need to understand the biological and human ecological implications of climate change. It will also be a valuable reference for those involved in environmental monitoring, conservation, policy-making and policy lobbying. The first book to cover not only the human impacts on climate, but how climate change will affect humans and the species that we rely on Written in an accessible style, with specialist terms used only when necessary and thoroughly explained The author has years of experience conveying the views of biological science learned societies to policy-makers

  3. Conservation of wading birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kushlan, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    The conservation and management of wading birds has received considerable attention over the past twenty years, through research, population monitoring, habitat protection, and through activities of specialist groups devoted to all three groups, the herons, ibises and allies, and flamingos. While populations are best known in North America, greatest advances in knowledge may have come in Australasia. The status of most species and many populations is now sufficiently known to allow assessment of risk. Conservation and management techniques allow creation of global and regional action plans for conservation of many species. Global action plans are being developed, but few regional plans have been undertaken. Management of nesting sites is now particularly well appreciated. Although known in broad stroke, much remains to be learned about managing feeding habitat. Problems related to disturbance, conflict with humans, habitat loss, contaminants and other environmental stresses remain for some species and many populations. New challenges lie in creating conservation action that account for genetic stocks.

  4. Robust network design for multispecies conservation

    Treesearch

    Ronan Le Bras; Bistra Dilkina; Yexiang Xue; Carla P. Gomes; Kevin S. McKelvey; Michael K. Schwartz; Claire A. Montgomery

    2013-01-01

    Our work is motivated by an important network design application in computational sustainability concerning wildlife conservation. In the face of human development and climate change, it is important that conservation plans for protecting landscape connectivity exhibit certain level of robustness. While previous work has focused on conservation strategies that result...

  5. Identification of limiting climatic and geographical variables for the distribution of the tortoise Chelonoidis chilensis (Testudinidae): a baseline for conservation actions

    PubMed Central

    Leynaud, Gerardo C.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Just as for most other tortoise species, the once common Chaco tortoise, Chelonoidis chilensis (Testudinidae), is under constant threat across it distribution in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. Despite initial qualitative description of the species distribution and further individual reports of new locations for the species, there is no description of the species distribution in probabilistic terms. With this work we aim to produce an updated predictive distribution map for C. chilensis to serve as a baseline management tool for directed strategic conservation planning. Methods. We fitted a spatially expanded logistic regression model within the Bayesian framework that accounts for uncertainty on presence-only and generated pseudo-absence data into the parameter estimates. We contrast the results with reported data for the national networks of protected areas to assess the inclusion of the species in area-based conservation strategies. Results. We obtained maps with predictions of the occurrence of the species and reported the model’s uncertainty spatially. The model suggests that potential suitable habitats for the species are continuous across Argentina, West Paraguay and South Bolivia, considering the variables, the scale and the resolution used. The main limiting variables were temperature-related variables, and precipitation in the reproductive period. Discussion. Given the alarming low density and coverage of protected areas over the distribution area of C. chilensis, the map produced provides a baseline to identify areas where directed strategic conservation management actions would be more efficient for this and other associated species. PMID:26557430

  6. Identification of limiting climatic and geographical variables for the distribution of the tortoise Chelonoidis chilensis (Testudinidae): a baseline for conservation actions.

    PubMed

    Ruete, Alejandro; Leynaud, Gerardo C

    2015-01-01

    Background. Just as for most other tortoise species, the once common Chaco tortoise, Chelonoidis chilensis (Testudinidae), is under constant threat across it distribution in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. Despite initial qualitative description of the species distribution and further individual reports of new locations for the species, there is no description of the species distribution in probabilistic terms. With this work we aim to produce an updated predictive distribution map for C. chilensis to serve as a baseline management tool for directed strategic conservation planning. Methods. We fitted a spatially expanded logistic regression model within the Bayesian framework that accounts for uncertainty on presence-only and generated pseudo-absence data into the parameter estimates. We contrast the results with reported data for the national networks of protected areas to assess the inclusion of the species in area-based conservation strategies. Results. We obtained maps with predictions of the occurrence of the species and reported the model's uncertainty spatially. The model suggests that potential suitable habitats for the species are continuous across Argentina, West Paraguay and South Bolivia, considering the variables, the scale and the resolution used. The main limiting variables were temperature-related variables, and precipitation in the reproductive period. Discussion. Given the alarming low density and coverage of protected areas over the distribution area of C. chilensis, the map produced provides a baseline to identify areas where directed strategic conservation management actions would be more efficient for this and other associated species.

  7. Conservation Laws

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewitt, Bryce; Christensen, Steven M.

    In the case of the free particle, we interpreted various components of the energy-momentum-stress density as fluxes of energy and momentum. This interpretation can obviously be extended also to particle ensembles and gases. When we speak of fluxes we usually think of quantities that are conserved. In special relativity, energy and momentum are conserved. In general relativity, they are no longer generally conserved, at least if we do not include the energy and momentum of the gravitational field itself. Nevertheless, their densities and fluxes satisfy a covariant generalization of a true conservation law, which is quite easy to obtain.

  8. Land-use change, climate and conservation of peatlands: lessons from the high-resolution palaeoecology peat archives of the southern Baltic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamentowicz, M.; Gałka, M.; Tobolski, K.; Górska, A.

    2012-04-01

    Conservation of peatlands and other issues connected with carbon sequestration and the global change have been increasingly challenging during the last decade. However, the reliable conservation can only be based on the interdisciplinary approach to the peatland ecosystem functioning. Good understanding of a present state is impossible without looking into the past conditions using various palaeoecological methods (e.g. analyses of: plant macrofossils, testate amoebae, pollen and spores and non-pollen palynomorphs). Natural developmental trends can only be recognized, having a long-term perspective (decadal, centennial or millennial scale). This perspective can be used to identify the past human impact. Many peatlands possess the state that is apparently pristine, but when we look into their past it is often obvious that their state was disturbed long time ago. Consequently, geological and palaeoecological study is prerequisite to begin a neo-ecological study. Furthermore, the past perspective is useful to start measurements of the modern processes e.g. hydrological monitoring or carbon exchange. We present high-resolution multi-proxy data from three raised bogs located in southern Baltic region. The quantitative reconstructions show the gradual disturbance connected with increasing human impact (deforestation and local peat cutting). We also show the extent of peatlands' degradation and difficulty of the recovery after stress. Differences of preservation on the example of three different bogs with the different Holocene histories will be presented. We paid an exceptional attention to the last thousand years as and the transition to the anthropocene.

  9. Conservation Tillage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebhardt, Maurice R.; Daniel, Tommy C.; Schweizer, Edward E.; Allmaras, Raymond R.

    1985-11-01

    Conservation production systems combine tillage and planting practices to reduce soil erosion and loss of water from farmland. Successful conservation tillage practices depend on the ability of farm managers to integrate sound crop production practices with effective pest management systems. More scientific information is needed to determine the relations between tillage practices and physical, chemical, and biological soil factors that affect plant and pest ecology. There is a need to devise improved pest management strategies for conservation tillage and to better understand the impact of conservation tillage on water quality, especially as it is related to use of agricultural chemicals. While savings in fuel, labor, and soil have induced many farmers to adopt conservation tillage, improved methods and equipment should increase adoption even more.

  10. Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

    2015-06-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and

  11. Effects of recent and past climatic shifts on the genetic structure of the high mountain yellow-spotted ringlet butterfly Erebia manto (Lepidoptera, Satyrinae): a conservation problem.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, Thomas; Habel, Jan Christian; Rödder, Dennis; Louy, Dirk

    2014-07-01

    Mountain species have evolved important genetic differentiation due to past climatic fluctuations. The genetic uniqueness of many of these lineages is now at risk due to global warming. Here, we analyse allozyme polymorphisms of 1306 individuals (36 populations) of the mountain butterfly Erebia manto and perform Species Distribution Models (SDMs). As a consensus of analyses, we obtained six most likely genetic clusters: (i) Pyrenees with Massif Central; (ii) Vosges; (iii-v) Alps including the Slovakian Carpathians; (vi) southern Carpathians. The Vosges population showed the strongest genetic split from all other populations, being almost as strong as the split between E. manto and its sister species Erebia eriphyle. The distinctiveness of the Pyrenees-Massif Central group and of the southern Carpathians group from all other groups is also quite high. All three groups are assumed to have survived more than one full glacial-interglacial cycle close to their current distributions with up-hill and down-slope shifts conforming climatic conditions. In contrast with these well-differentiated groups, the three groups present in the Alps and the Slovakian Carpathians show a much shallower genetic structure and thus also should be of a more recent origin. As predicted by our SDM projections, rising temperatures will strongly impact the distribution of E. manto. While the populations in the Alps are predicted to shrink, the survival of the three lineages present here should not be at risk. The situation of the three other lineages is quite different. All models predict the extinction of the Vosges lineage in the wake of global warming, and also the southern Carpathians and Pyrenees-Massif Central lineages might be at high risk to disappear. Thus, albeit global warming will therefore be unlikely to threaten E. manto as a species, an important proportion of the species' intraspecific differentiation and thus uniqueness might be lost. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  13. Data Basin: Expanding Access to Conservation Data, Tools, and People

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comendant, T.; Strittholt, J.; Frost, P.; Ward, B. C.; Bachelet, D. M.; Osborne-Gowey, J.

    2009-12-01

    Mapping and spatial analysis are a fundamental part of problem solving in conservation science, yet spatial data are widely scattered, difficult to locate, and often unavailable. Valuable time and resources are wasted locating and gaining access to important biological, cultural, and economic datasets, scientific analysis, and experts. As conservation problems become more serious and the demand to solve them grows more urgent, a new way to connect science and practice is needed. To meet this need, an open-access, web tool called Data Basin (www.databasin.org) has been created by the Conservation Biology Institute in partnership with ESRI and the Wilburforce Foundation. Users of Data Basin can gain quick access to datasets, experts, groups, and tools to help solve real-world problems. Individuals and organizations can perform essential tasks such as exploring and downloading from a vast library of conservation datasets, uploading existing datasets, connecting to other external data sources, create groups, and produce customized maps that can be easily shared. Data Basin encourages sharing and publishing, but also provides privacy and security for sensitive information when needed. Users can publish projects within Data Basin to tell more complete and rich stories of discovery and solutions. Projects are an ideal way to publish collections of datasets, maps and other information on the internet to reach wider audiences. Data Basin also houses individual centers that provide direct access to data, maps, and experts focused on specific geographic areas or conservation topics. Current centers being developed include the Boreal Information Centre, the Data Basin Climate Center, and proposed Aquatic and Forest Conservation Centers.

  14. Conservation Presentation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friday, Gerald

    2001-01-01

    Introduces a project in which students teach about the importance of recycling and conservation by presenting demonstrations. Includes demonstrations on water, plastic, and other recycling products such as steel. (YDS)

  15. Energy Conservation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abelson, Philip H.

    1972-01-01

    Comments on The Potential for Energy Conservation,'' a study by the Office of Emergency Preparedness, emphasizing the coming dependence on foreign oil, and presses for government influence to encourage development of more efficient cars. (AL)

  16. Connecting Managers and Scientists Through the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, G.; Schlafmann, D.

    2015-12-01

    The science-management partnership of the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative (CA LCC) works to address the landscape-scale impacts of climate change on California's ecosystems. This presentation focuses on models of successful science translation and co-production demonstrated by Point Blue Conservation Science, a member of the CA LCC. These models have all brought scientists and managers together for the common goal of integrating climate science into natural resource management decisions. These efforts include the intentional and deliberate consideration of climate change, addressing both mitigation and adaptation, referred to as Climate-Smart Conservation. These Climate-Smart Conservation efforts are strengthened through collaboratively adopting forward-looking goals and explicitly linking strategies to key climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Successes include integrating climate modeling into decision making and planning efforts, establishment of citizen science networks that inform management actions, and collaborative development of climate adaptation strategies with natural resource managers from the Sierra to the sea.

  17. Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

    PubMed

    Queirós, Ana M; Huebert, Klaus B; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C; Hamon, Katell G; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R; Somerfield, Paul J; Austen, Melanie C; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A

    2016-12-01

    The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change.

    PubMed

    Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

    2008-06-07

    Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change.

  19. Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

    2008-01-01

    Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended ‘north–south’ transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate

  20. Climate Adaptation is About More Than Climate: Value-Driven Science Delivery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swanston, C.

    2015-12-01

    Efforts to deliver relevant scientific information and tools to diverse stakeholders have dramatically increased in recent years with the intention of promoting climate change adaptation. Much work has been done to understand the barriers to action, but these largely overlook the need to frame the discussion in terms of stakeholder values and co-create innovative solutions that meet their individual needs. A partnership-based effort in the upper Midwest and Northeast called the Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF; www.forestadaptation.org) ensures relevance, breadth, and credibility of its products through stakeholder inclusion at all levels. The fundamental role of the CCRF is to help people meet their land stewardship goals while minimizing climate risk. This represents a subtle but important shift in focus to people and their values, as opposed to climate change and its effects. The CCRF uses a climate planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), along with ecosystem vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit conservation objectives. These tools are integrated into an Adaptation Planning and Practices workshop that leads organizations through this structured process of designing adaptation tactics for their projects and plans. All of these tools were developed with stakeholders, or in response to their direct and continuing feedback. The CCRF has involved thousands of people and over 100 organizations, published six ecoregional vulnerability assessments with more than 130 authors, and generated more than 125 intentional adaptation demonstrations in real-world land management projects on federal, state, tribal, county, conservancy, and private lands. The CCRF contributes strongly to the USDA Regional Climate Hubs, working on the applied end of the continuum of climate services occupied by providers such as the CSCs, LCCs, RISAs, and RCCs.

  1. Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands - an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kaua'i.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, Carter T; Utzurrum, Ruth B; Lapointe, Dennis A; Camp, Richard J; Crampton, Lisa H; Foster, Jeffrey T; Giambelluca, Thomas W

    2014-08-01

    Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum. Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the 'Akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) and 'Akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau during 1994-1997 and again during 2007-2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%), and upper ends of the Plateau (1350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i 'Elepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased

  2. Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands: an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kaua'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkinson, Carter T.; Utzurrum, Ruth B.; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Camp, Richard J.; Crampton, Lisa H.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.

    2014-01-01

    Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum. Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the ‘Akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) and ‘Akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau during 1994–1997 and again during 2007–2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%), and upper ends of the Plateau (1350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i ‘Elepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased

  3. Joining forces for genetic conservation

    Treesearch

    Gary Man; Emily Boes; Rhoda Maurer; Michael Dosmann; Matt Lobdell; Kevin Conrad; Mike Kintgen; Rebecca Sucher; Martin Nicholson; David Stevenson; Brianna McTeague; Evan Heck; Richard A. Sniezko

    2017-01-01

    Facing a Challenge Non-native diseases and insects as well as a changing climate pose serious threats to native trees in North America. Genetic variation in a species is key to its enduring persistence in the face of these abiotic and biotic threats. Efforts to conserve genetic diversity of North American tree at-risk species will ensure the genetic...

  4. Conservation endocrinology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCormick, Stephen; Romero, L. Michael

    2017-01-01

    Endocrinologists can make significant contributions to conservation biology by helping to understand the mechanisms by which organisms cope with changing environments. Field endocrine techniques have advanced rapidly in recent years and can provide substantial information on the growth, stress, and reproductive status of individual animals, thereby providing insight into current and future responses of populations to changes in the environment. Environmental stressors and reproductive status can be detected nonlethally by measuring a number of endocrine-related endpoints, including steroids in plasma, living and nonliving tissue, urine, and feces. Information on the environmental or endocrine requirements of individual species for normal growth, development, and reproduction will provide critical information for species and ecosystem conservation. For many taxa, basic information on endocrinology is lacking, and advances in conservation endocrinology will require approaches that are both “basic” and “applied” and include integration of laboratory and field approaches.

  5. Speyeria (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Sims, Steven R.

    2017-01-01

    Speyeria (Nymphalidae) are a conspicuous component of the North American butterfly fauna. There are approximately 16 species and >100 associated subspecies (or geographical variants). Speyeria are univoltine, occupy a wide range of habitats, overwinter as first instar larvae, and feed only on native violets. Speyeria species have become a model group for studies of evolution, speciation, and conservation. Several species and subspecies are threatened or endangered. The reasons for this vary with the taxa involved, but always involve the degradation or loss of quality habitat for larvae and adults. The impacts of climate change must be considered among the causes for habitat degradation and in the establishment of conservation measures. In addition to increasing the available habitat, conservation efforts should consider maintaining habitat in a seral “disturbed” successional stage that selectively favors the growth of violets and preferred adult nectar sources. A major future challenge will be determining the most effective allocation of conservation resources to those species and subspecies that have the greatest potential to respond favorably to these efforts. PMID:28441319

  6. Energy conservation technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Courtright, H.A.

    1993-12-31

    The conservation of energy through the efficiency improvement of existing end-uses and the development of new technologies to replace less efficient systems is an important component of the overall effort to reduce greenhouse gases which may contribute to global climate change. Even though uncertainties exist on the degree and causes of global warming, efficiency improvements in end-use applications remain in the best interest of utilities, their customers and society because efficiency improvements not only reduce environmental exposures but also contribute to industrial productivity, business cost reductions and consumer savings in energy costs.

  7. Leadership for Creating Community within Institutions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Zelema M.

    Community college leaders are responsible for creating an institutional climate that is supportive, nurturing, collaborative, integrative, empowering, and inclusive. In providing leadership, it is important to remember that collective wisdom can take a college much farther than operating according to one person's ideal. In managing a multifaceted…

  8. Green Energy Technologies Create Green Jobs

    SciTech Connect

    2009-10-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing advanced energy technologies that can help address climate change and reduce U.S. dependence on oil. As these new technologies are launched into commercial use, they create new jobs for American workers.

  9. Climate Science Centers: Growing Federal and Academic Expertise in the Nation's Interests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryker, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Department of the Interior's (Interior) natural and cultural resource managers face increasingly complex challenges exacerbated by climate change. In 2009, under Secretarial Order 3289, Interior created eight regional Climate Science Centers managed by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center and in partnership with universities. Secretarial Order 3289 provides a framework to coordinate climate change science and adaptation efforts across Interior and to integrate science and resource management expertise from Federal, State, Tribal, private, non-profit, and academic partners. In addition to broad research expertise, these Federal/university partnerships provide opportunities to develop a next generation of climate science professionals. These include opportunities to increase the climate science knowledge base of students and practicing professionals; build students' skills in working across the boundary between research and implementation; facilitate networking among researchers, students, and professionals for the application of research to on-the-ground issues; and support the science pipeline in climate-related fields through structured, intensive professional development. In 2013, Climate Science Centers supported approximately 10 undergraduates, 60 graduate students, and 26 postdoctoral researchers. Additional students trained by Climate Science Center-affiliated faculty also contribute valuable time and expertise, and are effectively part of the Climate Science Center network. The Climate Science Centers' education and training efforts have also reached a number of high school students interested in STEM careers, and professionals in natural and cultural resource management. The Climate Science Centers are coordinating to build on each other's successful education and training efforts. Early successes include several intensive education experiences, such as the Alaska Climate Science Center's Girls on

  10. Past-focused environmental comparisons promote proenvironmental outcomes for conservatives

    PubMed Central

    Baldwin, Matthew; Lammers, Joris

    2016-01-01

    Conservatives appear more skeptical about climate change and global warming and less willing to act against it than liberals. We propose that this unwillingness could result from fundamental differences in conservatives’ and liberals’ temporal focus. Conservatives tend to focus more on the past than do liberals. Across six studies, we rely on this notion to demonstrate that conservatives are positively affected by past- but not by future-focused environmental comparisons. Past comparisons largely eliminated the political divide that separated liberal and conservative respondents’ attitudes toward and behavior regarding climate change, so that across these studies conservatives and liberals were nearly equally likely to fight climate change. This research demonstrates how psychological processes, such as temporal comparison, underlie the prevalent ideological gap in addressing climate change. It opens up a promising avenue to convince conservatives effectively of the need to address climate change and global warming. PMID:27956619

  11. Conservation Tillage Impacts on Soil Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hake, K.

    2012-04-01

    As recent as the 1970's in University lecture halls cotton production was vilified for being "hard on the soil". This stigma is still perpetuated today in the popular press, deserving a close scrutiny of its origin and its reality as soil quality is an essential but unappreciated component of cotton's unique tolerance to heat and drought. The objective of expanding food, feed and fiber production to meet the global demand, during forecast climate disruption requires that scientists improve both the above and below ground components of agriculture. The latter has been termed the "final frontier" for its inaccessibility and complexity. The shift to conservation tillage in the U.S.A. over the previous three decades has been dramatic in multiple crops. Cotton and its major rotation crops (corn, soybean, and wheat) can be grown for multiple years without tillage using herbicides instead to control weeds. Although pesticide resistant insects and weeds (especially to Bt proteins and glyphosate) are a threat to Integrated Pest Management and conservation tillage that need vigilance and proactive management, the role of modern production tools in meeting agricultural objectives to feed and clothe the world is huge. The impact of these tools on soil quality will be reviewed. In addition ongoing research efforts to create production practices to further improve soil quality and meet the growing challenges of heat and drought will be reviewed.

  12. [Conservation Units.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Education Agency, Austin.

    Each of the six instructional units deals with one aspect of conservation: forests, water, rangeland, minerals (petroleum), and soil. The area of the elementary school curriculum with which each correlates is indicated. Lists of general and specific objectives are followed by suggested teaching procedures, including ideas for introducing the…

  13. [Conservation Units.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Education Agency, Austin.

    Instructional units deal with each aspect of conservation: forests, wildlife, rangelands, water, minerals, and soil. The area of the secondary school curriculum with which each is correlated is indicated. Lists of general and specific objectives are followed by suggested teaching procedures, including ideas for introducing the topic, questions to…

  14. Marketing Conservation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, William B.

    1987-01-01

    In 1986, Northeast Utilities began helping shool administrators combat school building energy wastage through a program called Energy Alliance. The typical school can reduce its energy bill by 30 percent by adopting a wide range of conservation measures, including cogeneration, relamping, and energy audits. (MLH)

  15. Lighting Conservation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Frank D.

    1975-01-01

    With the energy crisis has come an awareness of wasteful consumption practices. One area where research is being done is in lighting conservation. Information in this article is concerned with finding more effective and efficient lighting designs which include daylight utilization, task-oriented lighting, and lighting controls. (MA)

  16. Energy Conservation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Land, Amy A.

    This selection of class activities involves a sequence of 10 class sessions. The goal of the collection is to aid students in learning the concepts of energy conservation and to put this knowledge into practice. Attention is also given to the development of alternate energy sources. Each lesson includes an activity title, motivational hints,…

  17. Colorful Conservation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skophammer, Karen

    2011-01-01

    Some people only think about conservation on Earth Day. Being in the "art business" however, this author is always conscious of the many products she thinks get wasted when they could be reused, recycled, and restored--especially in a school building and art room. In this article, she describes an art lesson that allows students to paint…

  18. Colorful Conservation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skophammer, Karen

    2011-01-01

    Some people only think about conservation on Earth Day. Being in the "art business" however, this author is always conscious of the many products she thinks get wasted when they could be reused, recycled, and restored--especially in a school building and art room. In this article, she describes an art lesson that allows students to paint…

  19. Climate change and wildfires

    Treesearch

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  20. School Climate Improvement Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, Eugene; Jackson, David

    As a means of dramatizing the interrelationships that determine the climate of a school, a simulation experience was created for participants in this workshop on school climate improvement. A discussion of the intent of the experience includes descriptions of "good" and "poor" school environments and their impact on the school community.…

  1. Considering the needs of indigenous and local populations in conservation programs.

    PubMed

    Kohler, Florent; Brondizio, Eduardo S

    2017-04-01

    Local rural and indigenous communities have assumed increasing responsibility for conservation within and between areas buffering the impacts of agricultural or resource-extraction zones and protected areas. Empowering local communities as central partners in conservation and climate-change mitigation has allowed many people to gain access to land and citizenship rights but has provided limited improvements in access to social services and economic opportunities even as expectation about their role as environmental stewards grows. These expectations, however, are inconsistent with reality. We conducted multiple field studies in Brazil since the mid-1980s to illustrate the discrepancies between conservation programs and local conditions and expectations. We suggest that public policies and conservation programs should not delegate responsibility for managing protected areas to local and indigenous communities without considering local needs and expectations and locals' attitudes toward conservation. In other words, behavior that maintains or improves the environment should not be treated as traditional based on the expectations of outsiders. Framing local populations as traditional environmentalists creates contradictions and frustrations for local populations and for conservation professionals and policy makers. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  2. An Interdisciplinary Method for the Visualization of Novel High-Resolution Precision Photography and Micro-XCT Data Sets of NASA's Apollo Lunar Samples and Antarctic Meteorite Samples to Create Combined Research-Grade 3D Virtual Samples for the Benefit of Astromaterials Collections Conservation, Curation, Scientific Research and Education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blumenfeld, E. H.; Evans, C. A.; Oshel, E. R.; Liddle, D. A.; Beaulieu, K.; Zeigler, R. A.; Hanna, R. D.; Ketcham, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    New technologies make possible the advancement of documentation and visualization practices that can enhance conservation and curation protocols for NASA's Astromaterials Collections. With increasing demands for accessibility to updated comprehensive data, and with new sample return missions on the horizon, it is of primary importance to develop new standards for contemporary documentation and visualization methodologies. Our interdisciplinary team has expertise in the fields of heritage conservation practices, professional photography, photogrammetry, imaging science, application engineering, data curation, geoscience, and astromaterials curation. Our objective is to create virtual 3D reconstructions of Apollo Lunar and Antarctic Meteorite samples that are a fusion of two state-of-the-art data sets: the interior view of the sample by collecting Micro-XCT data and the exterior view of the sample by collecting high-resolution precision photography data. These new data provide researchers an information-rich visualization of both compositional and textural information prior to any physical sub-sampling. Since January 2013 we have developed a process that resulted in the successful creation of the first image-based 3D reconstruction of an Apollo Lunar Sample correlated to a 3D reconstruction of the same sample's Micro- XCT data, illustrating that this technique is both operationally possible and functionally beneficial. In May of 2016 we began a 3-year research period during which we aim to produce Virtual Astromaterials Samples for 60 high-priority Apollo Lunar and Antarctic Meteorite samples and serve them on NASA's Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation website. Our research demonstrates that research-grade Virtual Astromaterials Samples are beneficial in preserving for posterity a precise 3D reconstruction of the sample prior to sub-sampling, which greatly improves documentation practices, provides unique and novel visualization of the sample's interior and

  3. An Interdisciplinary Method for the Visualization of Novel High-Resolution Precision Photography and Micro-XCT Data Sets of NASA's Apollo Lunar Samples and Antarctic Meteorite Samples to Create Combined Research-Grade 3D Virtual Samples for the Benefit of Astromaterials Collections Conservation, Curation, Scientific Research and Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blumenfeld, E. H.; Evans, C. A.; Zeigler, R. A.; Righter, K.; Beaulieu, K. R.; Oshel, E. R.; Liddle, D. A.; Hanna, R.; Ketcham, R. A.; Todd, N. S.

    2016-12-01

    New technologies make possible the advancement of documentation and visualization practices that can enhance conservation and curation protocols for NASA's Astromaterials Collections. With increasing demands for accessibility to updated comprehensive data, and with new sample return missions on the horizon, it is of primary importance to develop new standards for contemporary documentation and visualization methodologies. Our interdisciplinary team has expertise in the fields of heritage conservation practices, professional photography, photogrammetry, imaging science, application engineering, data curation, geoscience, and astromaterials curation. Our objective is to create virtual 3D reconstructions of Apollo Lunar and Antarctic Meteorite samples that are a fusion of two state-of-the-art data sets: the interior view of the sample by collecting Micro-XCT data and the exterior view of the sample by collecting high-resolution precision photography data. These new data provide researchers an information-rich visualization of both compositional and textural information prior to any physical sub-sampling. Since January 2013 we have developed a process that resulted in the successful creation of the first image-based 3D reconstruction of an Apollo Lunar Sample correlated to a 3D reconstruction of the same sample's Micro-XCT data, illustrating that this technique is both operationally possible and functionally beneficial. In May of 2016 we began a 3-year research period during which we aim to produce Virtual Astromaterials Samples for 60 high-priority Apollo Lunar and Antarctic Meteorite samples and serve them on NASA's Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation website. Our research demonstrates that research-grade Virtual Astromaterials Samples are beneficial in preserving for posterity a precise 3D reconstruction of the sample prior to sub-sampling, which greatly improves documentation practices, provides unique and novel visualization of the sample's interior and

  4. Price, carbon and generation profiles: how partisan differences make the future of climate change uncertain

    SciTech Connect

    Sautter, John A.; Sautter, Christopher A.

    2010-03-15

    America is very much a divided nation when it comes to politics. That polarization is reflected in the environmental and energy realities currently at play in many states, creating a remarkable divide between more conservative Red States and more liberal Blue States when it comes to the amount of CO{sub 2} emitted into the atmosphere and the price of electricity. These differences pose an enormous obstacle in passing climate change legislation. (author)

  5. Energy conservation

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-05-01

    Under the Warner Amendment, oil overcharge funds are designated for states' use in certain authorized energy conservation and assistance programs. During FY 1982-87 Warner funds accounted for $200 million of the $3.3 billion states received from the oil overcharge escrow account. The $3.3 billion was in addition to the $13.3 billion that the Congress appropriated for the conservation and assistance programs. More than 4 years after their distribution, states had not used all the Warner funds. This report provides the status of all oil overcharge funds; the use of Warner funds and the time it is taking to spend the funds in Arizona, California, and Illinois.

  6. Heron conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kushlan, J.A.; Hafner, H.

    2000-01-01

    Herons are large, popular and, in many cases, spectacular birds found in wetlands world-wide, both tropical and temperate, natural and man-made. Some populations are very small and localized, some have decreased, some have expanded their ranges, and a few are pests of human activities. In the fifteen years since the publication of the latest monographic treatment of the family, The Herons Handbook, there has been a tremendous increase in our knowledge of heron status and conservation requirements, set against a backdrop of increasing concern about the future of the world?s wetland habitats. This book provides a comprehensive update following two distinct threads. The status and conservation needs of herons are first presented on a regional basis, in a series of chapters set at a continental or subcontinental scale. Over 200 biologists and heron conservationists have contributed to the data summarized here, and the very latest census and survey results provide the most up-to-date and detailed picture of heron populations currently available. Chapters discussing several critical issues in heron conservation follow, tending to focus on the international nature of the problems.

  7. Interior Department Innovations in Conservation Delivery

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-11-01

    Interior Department Innovations in  Conservation Delivery  Robin O’Malley Policy and Partnership Coordinator USGS National  Climate   Change  and...NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) U.S. Geological Survey ,National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center,12201 Sunrise...Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Climate   change   Land use and habitat  change   Invasive species  Wildfire Species conservation

  8. Energy Conservation through Architectural Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Robert C., Jr.

    1977-01-01

    Describes a teaching unit designed to create in students an awareness of and an appreciation for the possibilities for energy conservation as they relate to architecture. It is noted that the unit can be adapted for use in many industrial programs and with different teaching methods due to the variety of activities that can be used. (Editor/TA)

  9. Interactive effects of water diversion and climate change for juvenile chinook salmon in the lemhi river basin (USA.).

    PubMed

    Walters, Annika W; Bartz, Krista K; McClure, Michelle M

    2013-12-01

    The combined effects of water diversion and climate change are a major conservation challenge for freshwater ecosystems. In the Lemhi Basin, Idaho (U.S.A.), water diversion causes changes in streamflow, and climate change will further affect streamflow and temperature. Shifts in streamflow and temperature regimes can affect juvenile salmon growth, movement, and survival. We examined the potential effects of water diversion and climate change on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). To examine the effects for juvenile survival, we created a model relating 19 years of juvenile survival data to streamflow and temperature and found spring streamflow and summer temperature were good predictors of juvenile survival. We used these models to project juvenile survival for 15 diversion and climate-change scenarios. Projected survival was 42-58% lower when streamflows were diverted than when streamflows were undiverted. For diverted streamflows, 2040 climate-change scenarios (ECHO-G and CGCM3.1 T47) resulted in an additional 11-39% decrease in survival. We also created models relating habitat carrying capacity to streamflow and made projections for diversion and climate-change scenarios. Habitat carrying capacity estimated for diverted streamflows was 17-58% lower than for undiverted streamflows. Climate-change scenarios resulted in additional decreases in carrying capacity for the dry (ECHO-G) climate model. Our results indicate climate change will likely pose an additional stressor that should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic actions on salmon population status. Thus, this type of analysis will be especially important for evaluating effects of specific actions on a particular species. Efectos Interactivos de la Desviación del Agua y el Cambio Climático en Individuos Juveniles de Salmón Chinook en la Cuenca del Río Lemhi (E.U.A.). Conservation Biology

  10. Motivations for conserving urban biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Dearborn, Donald C; Kark, Salit

    2010-04-01

    In a time of increasing urbanization, the fundamental value of conserving urban biodiversity remains controversial. How much of a fixed budget should be spent on conservation in urban versus nonurban landscapes? The answer should depend on the goals that drive our conservation actions, yet proponents of urban conservation often fail to specify the motivation for protecting urban biodiversity. This is an important shortcoming on several fronts, including a missed opportunity to make a stronger appeal to those who believe conservation biology should focus exclusively on more natural, wilder landscapes. We argue that urban areas do offer an important venue for conservation biology, but that we must become better at choosing and articulating our goals. We explored seven possible motivations for urban biodiversity conservation: preserving local biodiversity, creating stepping stones to nonurban habitat, understanding and facilitating responses to environmental change, conducting environmental education, providing ecosystem services, fulfilling ethical responsibilities, and improving human well-being. To attain all these goals, challenges must be faced that are common to the urban environment, such as localized pollution, disruption of ecosystem structure, and limited availability of land. There are, however, also challenges specific only to particular goals, meaning that different goals will require different approaches and actions. This highlights the importance of specifying the motivations behind urban biodiversity conservation. If the goals are unknown, progress cannot be assessed.

  11. Creating physics stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banks, Michael

    2013-07-01

    Korea has begun an ambitious 5bn plan to create 50 new institutes dedicated to fundamental research. Michael Banks meets physicist Se-Jung Oh, president of the Institute for Basic Science, to find out more.

  12. Create a Logo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duchen, Gail

    2002-01-01

    Presents an art lesson that introduced students to graphic art as a career path. Explains that the students met a graphic artist and created a logo for a pretend client. Explains that the students researched logos. (CMK)

  13. Downscaled climate projections for the Southeast United States: evaluation and use for ecological applications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wootten, Adrienne; Smith, Kara; Boyles, Ryan; Terando, Adam; Stefanova, Lydia; Misra, Vasru; Smith, Tom; Blodgett, David L.; Semazzi, Fredrick

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is likely to have many effects on natural ecosystems in the Southeast U.S. The National Climate Assessment Southeast Technical Report (SETR) indicates that natural ecosystems in the Southeast are likely to be affected by warming temperatures, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, and changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration. To better assess these how climate changes could affect multiple sectors, including ecosystems, climatologists have created several downscaled climate projections (or downscaled datasets) that contain information from the global climate models (GCMs) translated to regional or local scales. The process of creating these downscaled datasets, known as downscaling, can be carried out using a broad range of statistical or numerical modeling techniques. The rapid proliferation of techniques that can be used for downscaling and the number of downscaled datasets produced in recent years present many challenges for scientists and decisionmakers in assessing the impact or vulnerability of a given species or ecosystem to climate change. Given the number of available downscaled datasets, how do these model outputs compare to each other? Which variables are available, and are certain downscaled datasets more appropriate for assessing vulnerability of a particular species? Given the desire to use these datasets for impact and vulnerability assessments and the lack of comparison between these datasets, the goal of this report is to synthesize the information available in these downscaled datasets and provide guidance to scientists and natural resource managers with specific interests in ecological modeling and conservation planning related to climate change in the Southeast U.S. This report enables the Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC) to address an important strategic goal of providing scientific information and guidance that will enable resource managers and other participants in Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to make science

  14. Sociology: The growing climate divide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, Andrew J.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change has reached the level of a 'scientific consensus', but is not yet a 'social consensus'. New analysis highlights that a growing divide between liberals and conservatives in the American public is a major obstacle to achieving this end.

  15. Visualizing and communicating climate change using the ClimateWizard: decision support and education through web-based analysis and mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P.

    2009-12-01

    Virtually all fields of study and parts of society—from ecological science and nature conservation, to global development, multinational corporations, and government bodies—need to know how climate change has and may impact specific locations of interest. Our ability to respond to climate change depends on having convenient tools that make past and projected climate trends available to planners, managers, scientists and the general public, at scales ranging from global to local scales. Web-mapping applications provide an effective platform for communicating climate change impacts in specific geographic areas of interest to the public. Here, we present one such application, the ClimateWizard, that allows users to analyze, visualize and explore climate change maps for specific geographic areas of interest throughout the world (http://ClimateWizard.org). Built on Web 2.0 web-services (SOAP), Google Maps mash-up, and cloud computing technologies, the ClimateWizard analyzes large databases of climate information located on remote servers to create synthesized information and useful products tailored to geographic areas of interest (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). We demonstrate how the ClimateWizard can be used to assess projected changes to temperature and precipitation across all states in the contiguous United States and all countries of the world using statistically downscaled general circulation models from the CMIP3 dataset. We then go on to show how ClimateWizard can be used to analyze changes to other climate related variables, such as moisture stress and water production. Finally, we discuss how this tool can be adapted to develop a wide range of web-based tools that are targeted at informing specific audiences—from scientific research and natural resource management, to K-12 and higher education—about how climate change may affect different aspects of human and natural systems.

  16. Measuring and explaining the willingness to pay for forest conservation: evidence from a survey experiment in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakaki, Zorzeta; Bernauer, Thomas

    2016-11-01

    Recent research suggests that there is substantial public support (including willingness to pay) for forest conservation. Based on a nationwide survey experiment in Brazil (N = 2500) the largest and richest of the world’s tropical developing countries, we shed new light on this issue. To what extent does the public in fact support forest conservation and what factors are influencing support levels? Unlike previous studies, our results show that the willingness to pay for tropical forest conservation in Brazil is rather low. Moreover, framing forest conservation in terms of biodiversity protection, which tends to create more local benefits, does not induce more support than framing conservation in terms of mitigating global climate change. The results also show that low levels of trust in public institutions have a strong negative impact on the public’s willingness to pay for forest conservation, individually and/or via government spending. What could other (richer) countries do, in this context, to encourage forest conservation in Brazil and other tropical developing countries? One key issue is whether prospects of foreign funding for forest conservation are likely to crowd out or, conversely, enhance the motivation for domestic level conservation efforts. We find that prospects of foreign funding have no significant effect on willingness to pay for forest conservation. These findings have at least three policy implications, namely, that the Brazilian public’s willingness to pay for forest conservation is very limited, that large-scale international funding is probably needed, and that such funding is unlikely to encourage more domestic effort, but is also unlikely to crowd out domestic efforts. Restoring public trust in the Brazilian government is key to increasing public support for forest conservation in Brazil.

  17. Energy Conservation

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, P.

    1995-06-01

    There are two fundamental reasons or motivations for energy conservation: (1) economics; and (2) consideration of energy - its sources and availability. Economics speaks for itself and needs little explanation: a project is undertaken, the cost is recovered in a given period of time (we hope) and our company realizes cost savings thereafter. We study and propose a project; we estimate the payback. If approved, we implement the project. Then, we eagerly watch for its effectiveness - for the proposed payback. The second consideration in regard to energy conservation might - in the foreseeable future - become by far the most important - that of availability. Very knowledgeable persons have stated that this - in reality - is the most serious problem facing our nation today. Readily available, reasonably priced energy has given to the US the high form of living experienced today. An interruption in this flow could catapult our nation in an awesome catastrophe. The energy shortage of the late 70`s might be a forerunner of such an experience.

  18. Collaboration Networks in Applied Conservation Projects across Europe.

    PubMed

    Nita, Andreea; Rozylowicz, Laurentiu; Manolache, Steluta; Ciocănea, Cristiana Maria; Miu, Iulia Viorica; Popescu, Viorel Dan

    2016-01-01

    The main funding instrument for implementing EU policies on nature conservation and supporting environmental and climate action is the LIFE Nature programme, established by the European Commission in 1992. LIFE Nature projects (>1400 awarded) are applied conservation projects in which partnerships between institutions are critical for successful conservation outcomes, yet little is known about the structure of collaborative networks within and between EU countries. The aim of our study is to understand the nature of collaboration in LIFE Nature projects using a novel application of social network theory at two levels: (1) collaboration between countries, and (2) collaboration within countries using six case studies: Western Europe (United Kingdom and Netherlands), Eastern Europe (Romania and Latvia) and Southern Europe (Greece and Portugal). Using data on 1261 projects financed between 1996 and 2013, we found that Italy was the most successful country not only in terms of awarded number of projects, but also in terms of overall influence being by far the most influent country in the European LIFE Nature network, having the highest eigenvector (0.989) and degree centrality (0.177). Another key player in the network is Netherlands, which ensures a fast communication flow with other network members (closeness-0.318) by staying connected with the most active countries. Although Western European countries have higher centrality scores than most of the Eastern European countries, our results showed that overall there is a lower tendency to create partnerships between different organization categories. Also, the comparisons of the six case studies indicates significant differences in regards to the pattern of creating partnerships, providing valuable information on collaboration on EU nature conservation. This study represents a starting point in predicting the formation of future partnerships within LIFE Nature programme, suggesting ways to improve transnational

  19. Collaboration Networks in Applied Conservation Projects across Europe

    PubMed Central

    Manolache, Steluta; Ciocănea, Cristiana Maria; Miu, Iulia Viorica; Popescu, Viorel Dan

    2016-01-01

    The main funding instrument for implementing EU policies on nature conservation and supporting environmental and climate action is the LIFE Nature programme, established by the European Commission in 1992. LIFE Nature projects (>1400 awarded) are applied conservation projects in which partnerships between institutions are critical for successful conservation outcomes, yet little is known about the structure of collaborative networks within and between EU countries. The aim of our study is to understand the nature of collaboration in LIFE Nature projects using a novel application of social network theory at two levels: (1) collaboration between countries, and (2) collaboration within countries using six case studies: Western Europe (United Kingdom and Netherlands), Eastern Europe (Romania and Latvia) and Southern Europe (Greece and Portugal). Using data on 1261 projects financed between 1996 and 2013, we found that Italy was the most successful country not only in terms of awarded number of projects, but also in terms of overall influence being by far the most influent country in the European LIFE Nature network, having the highest eigenvector (0.989) and degree centrality (0.177). Another key player in the network is Netherlands, which ensures a fast communication flow with other network members (closeness—0.318) by staying connected with the most active countries. Although Western European countries have higher centrality scores than most of the Eastern European countries, our results showed that overall there is a lower tendency to create partnerships between different organization categories. Also, the comparisons of the six case studies indicates significant differences in regards to the pattern of creating partnerships, providing valuable information on collaboration on EU nature conservation. This study represents a starting point in predicting the formation of future partnerships within LIFE Nature programme, suggesting ways to improve transnational

  20. Combined speeds of climate and land-use change of the conterminous US until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Radeloff, Volker C.; Williams, John W.

    2014-09-01

    High rates of climate and land-use changes threaten biodiversity and ecosystem function, creating a need for integrated assessments and planning at regional to global scales. We develop a new approach to measure multivariate estimates of climate and land-use change that builds on recently developed measures of climate velocity, and apply it to assess the combined speeds of climate and land use for the conterminous US from 2001 to 2051. The combined speeds of climate and land-use change are highest in a broad north-to-south swath in the central US and in parts of the intermountain west. Climate speeds are roughly an order of magnitude higher than land-use speeds in most regions, but land-use speed is particularly high in the Appalachians and north-central forests. Joint speeds are low across much of the intermountain west. Our results highlight areas expected to be most vulnerable to changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function due to the individual or combined effects of climate and land-use change. The integration of climate and land-use scenarios suggests different conservation prioritization strategies from climate velocities and species alone.

  1. Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W.; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J. Michael

    2014-01-01

    Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change. PMID:25268907

  2. Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

    PubMed

    Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

    2014-01-01

    Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

  3. Creating Special Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    deLisle, Lee

    2009-01-01

    "Creating Special Events" is organized as a systematic approach to festivals and events for students who seek a career in event management. This book looks at the evolution and history of festivals and events and proceeds to the nuts and bolts of event management. The book presents event management as the means of planning, organizing, directing,…

  4. Creating dedicated bioenergy crops

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Bioenergy is one of the current mechanisms of producing renewable energy to reduce our use of nonrenewable fossil fuels and to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Humans have been using bioenergy since we first learned to create and control fire - burning manure, peat, and wood to cook food...

  5. Creating a Classroom Newspaper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buss, Kathleen, Ed.; McClain-Ruelle, Leslie, Ed.

    Based on the premise that students can learn a great deal by reading and writing a newspaper, this book was created by preservice instructors to teach upper elementary students (grades 3-5) newspaper concepts, journalism, and how to write newspaper articles. It shows how to use newspaper concepts to help students integrate knowledge from multiple…

  6. Creating a Virtual Gymnasium

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fiorentino, Leah H.; Castelli, Darla

    2005-01-01

    Physical educators struggle with the challenges of assessing student performance, providing feedback about motor skills, and creating opportunities for all students to engage in game-play on a daily basis. The integration of technology in the gymnasium can address some of these challenges by improving teacher efficiency and increasing student…

  7. Creating an Interactive PDF

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Branzburg, Jeffrey

    2008-01-01

    There are many ways to begin a PDF document using Adobe Acrobat. The easiest and most popular way is to create the document in another application (such as Microsoft Word) and then use the Adobe Acrobat software to convert it to a PDF. In this article, the author describes how he used Acrobat's many tools in his project--an interactive…

  8. Creating a Classroom Makerspace

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rivas, Luz

    2014-01-01

    What is a makerspace? Makerspaces are community-operated physical spaces where people (makers) create do-it-yourself projects together. These membership spaces serve as community labs where people learn together and collaborate on projects. Makerspaces often have tools and equipment like 3-D printers, laser cutters, and soldering irons.…

  9. Creating Motivating Job Aids.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tilaro, Angie; Rossett, Allison

    1993-01-01

    Explains how to create job aids that employees will be motivated to use, based on a review of pertinent literature and interviews with professionals. Topics addressed include linking motivation with job aids; Keller's ARCS (Attention, Relevance, Confidence, Satisfaction) model of motivation; and design strategies for job aids based on Keller's…

  10. Creating Dialogue by Storytelling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Passila, Anne; Oikarinen, Tuija; Kallio, Anne

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to develop practice and theory from Augusto Boal's dialogue technique (Image Theatre) for organisational use. The paper aims to examine how the members in an organisation create dialogue together by using a dramaturgical storytelling framework where the dialogue emerges from storytelling facilitated by…

  11. Light-created chemiluminescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasil'ev, Rostislav F.; Tsaplev, Yuri B.

    2006-11-01

    The results of studies of light-created chemiluminescence are described systematically. Conditions for the transformation of a dark chemical reaction into a chemiluminescence reaction are considered. Examples of photosensitised and photoinduced processes as well as of analytical applications are given.

  12. Creating Quality Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Association of School Administrators, Arlington, VA.

    This booklet presents information on how total quality management can be applied to school systems to create educational improvement. Total quality management offers education a systemic approach and a new set of assessment tools. Chapter 1 provides a definition and historical overview of total quality management. Chapter 2 views the school…

  13. Creating snags with explosives.

    Treesearch

    Evelyn L. Bull; Arthur D. Partridge; Wayne G. Williams

    1981-01-01

    The tops of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees were blown off with dynamite to create nest sites for cavity-nesting wildlife. The procedure included drilling a hole almost through the trunk, inserting the dynamite, and setting the charge with primacord and fuse. Trees were simultaneously innoculated with a decay organism. The average cost was $...

  14. Creating a Virtual Gymnasium

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fiorentino, Leah H.; Castelli, Darla

    2005-01-01

    Physical educators struggle