Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect of reduced glacier areas can be seen in a reduction of runoff particularly in summer. Maintaining the glacier areas constant, runoff would increase in summer month caused by higher ice melt under climate change conditions. Also runoff increases in spring and fall is expected due to a shift from solid to liquid precipitation in the mountain catchments. The simulation of the combination of glacier change and climate change scenarios results in an increase in runoff in spring due to a shift in the snowline and a decrease in runoff in summer caused by reduced glacier area.

The impact of ARM on climate modeling

DOE PAGES

Randall, David A.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Donner, Lee J.; ...

2016-07-15

Climate models are among humanity’s most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of Earth down to 100 km or smaller and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. In addition, themore » atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM).« less

Assessment of perception and adaptation to climate-related glacier changes in the arid Rivers Basin in northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guofeng, Zhu; Dahe, Qin; Jiawen, Ren; Feng, Liang; Huali, Tong

2017-06-01

In many mountainous areas of the world, glaciers serve as a source of fresh water that is of critical importance and contributes to the sustainability of agriculture and other socio-economic activities. An enhanced understanding of socio-economic consequences of the climate-related glacier changes is essential to the identification of vulnerable entities and the development of well-targeted environmental adaptation policies. A questionnaire and interviews of farmers in the Heihe River Basin were used to analyze their perception of cryospheric changes, attitudes towards mitigation of cryospheric changes, and the ways in which they perceived their responsibility. Preferred responses and interventions for cryospheric change and views on responsible parties were also collected and evaluated. Our investigation revealed that most rural residents were concerned about glacier changes and believed they would bring harm to present society, individuals, and families, as well as to future generations. The respondents' perceptions were mainly influenced by the mass media. Most respondents tended to favor adaptation measures implemented by the government and other policy-making departments. An integrated approach will be needed to deal with the challenges to tackling climate-related glacier change.

The challenge of monitoring the cryosphere in alpine environments: Prepare the present for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andrea; Helfricht, Kay; Seiser, Bernd; Stocker-Waldhuber, Martin; Hartl, Lea; Wiesenegger, Hans

2017-04-01

Understanding the interaction of mountain glaciers and permafrost with weather and climate is essential for the interpretation of past states of the cryosphere in terms of climate change. Most of the glaciers and rock glaciers in Eastern Alpine terrain are subject to strong gradients in climatic forcing, and the persistence of these gradients under past climatic conditions is, more or less, unknown. Thus a key challenge of monitoring the cryosphere is to define the demands on a monitoring strategy for capturing essential processes and their potential changes. For example, the effects of orographic precipitation and local shading vary with general circulation patterns and the amount of solar radiation during the melt(ing) season. Recent investigations based on the Austrian glacier inventories have shown that glacier distribution is closely linked to topography and climatic situation, and that these two parameters imply also different sensitivities of the specific glaciers to progressing climate change. This leads to the need to develop a monitoring system capturing past, but also fairly unknown future ensembles of climatic state and sensitivities. As a first step, the Austrian glacier monitoring network has been analyzed from the beginning of the records onwards. Today's monitoring network bears the imprints of past research interests, but also past funding policies and personal/institutional engagements. As a limitation for long term monitoring in general, today's monitoring strategies have to cope with being restricted to these historical commitments to preserve the length of the time series, but at the same time expanding the measurements to fulfil present and future scientific and societal demands. The decision on cryospheric benchmark sites has an additional uncertainty: the ongoing disintegration of glaciers, their increasing debris cover as well as the potential low ice content and relatively unknown reaction of rock glaciers in the course of climate change, limits the number of potential candidates for future monitoring drastically. In the light of these developments, sample sizes are a critical question for reliable monitoring, together with strategies for coping with changing monitoring sites and composition of time series. As a first step, the Austrian monitoring network has been analyzed from 1891 onwards. Past changes evident from the glacier inventories capturing all glaciers have been compared to the subsamples of glaciers monitored for length change, mass balance and ice flow velocities. The results show that for capturing the full bandwidth of regional changes, glacier inventories are necessary. Without the analysis of larger scale changes, the interpretation of records with very low sample sizes, such as mass balance or length change, has a high uncertainty level. For specific research or monitoring purposes, for example, the development of runoff master sites with all types of monitoring techniques improve the certainty of the spatial extrapolations of local records or the interpretation of volume changes. The challenge of preparing the present network for the future requires a thorough analysis of potential future developments to be able to switch sites with a common observation period necessary to investigate the different sensitivities.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Cryospheric Research in China

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-30

marine monitoring for environment and security, using satellite Earth observation technologies), the WCRP/CliC Project (an international cooperative...BIOME4) to simulate the responses of biome distribution to future climate change in China. The simulation results suggest that regional climate

The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beniston, Martin; Farinotti, Daniel; Stoffel, Markus; Andreassen, Liss M.; Coppola, Erika; Eckert, Nicolas; Fantini, Adriano; Giacona, Florie; Hauck, Christian; Huss, Matthias; Huwald, Hendrik; Lehning, Michael; López-Moreno, Juan-Ignacio; Magnusson, Jan; Marty, Christoph; Morán-Tejéda, Enrique; Morin, Samuel; Naaim, Mohamed; Provenzale, Antonello; Rabatel, Antoine; Six, Delphine; Stötter, Johann; Strasser, Ulrich; Terzago, Silvia; Vincent, Christian

2018-03-01

The mountain cryosphere of mainland Europe is recognized to have important impacts on a range of environmental processes. In this paper, we provide an overview on the current knowledge on snow, glacier, and permafrost processes, as well as their past, current, and future evolution. We additionally provide an assessment of current cryosphere research in Europe and point to the different domains requiring further research. Emphasis is given to our understanding of climate-cryosphere interactions, cryosphere controls on physical and biological mountain systems, and related impacts. By the end of the century, Europe's mountain cryosphere will have changed to an extent that will impact the landscape, the hydrological regimes, the water resources, and the infrastructure. The impacts will not remain confined to the mountain area but also affect the downstream lowlands, entailing a wide range of socioeconomical consequences. European mountains will have a completely different visual appearance, in which low- and mid-range-altitude glaciers will have disappeared and even large valley glaciers will have experienced significant retreat and mass loss. Due to increased air temperatures and related shifts from solid to liquid precipitation, seasonal snow lines will be found at much higher altitudes, and the snow season will be much shorter than today. These changes in snow and ice melt will cause a shift in the timing of discharge maxima, as well as a transition of runoff regimes from glacial to nival and from nival to pluvial. This will entail significant impacts on the seasonality of high-altitude water availability, with consequences for water storage and management in reservoirs for drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower production. Whereas an upward shift of the tree line and expansion of vegetation can be expected into current periglacial areas, the disappearance of permafrost at lower altitudes and its warming at higher elevations will likely result in mass movements and process chains beyond historical experience. Future cryospheric research has the responsibility not only to foster awareness of these expected changes and to develop targeted strategies to precisely quantify their magnitude and rate of occurrence but also to help in the development of approaches to adapt to these changes and to mitigate their consequences. Major joint efforts are required in the domain of cryospheric monitoring, which will require coordination in terms of data availability and quality. In particular, we recognize the quantification of high-altitude precipitation as a key source of uncertainty in projections of future changes. Improvements in numerical modeling and a better understanding of process chains affecting high-altitude mass movements are the two further fields that - in our view - future cryospheric research should focus on.

Cryosphere and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III; Thorndike, Alan S.

1992-01-01

This chapter will discuss two main issues related to the cryosphere and climate. One is the effect of sea ice and salinity gradients on ocean circulation, and in particular the possible role of sea ice transport on the ocean conveyer belt. The other is the effect of the cryosphere on climate, and in particular in high-latitude warming under increased CO2. In understanding the role of the cryosphere in both cases, it is useful to elucidate two types of toy sea ice models. Neither of these represents reality, but both are useful for illustrating the archetypal features of sea ice that control much of its large-scale behavior. The first model is a simple slab thermodynamic sea ice model as presented by Thorndike. In this model there are no dynamical effects and the thickness of ice is determined by surface heat budget and oceanic heat flux considerations, with the thickness of the ice critically affecting the effective conductivity whereby heat is transferred from the bottom ice boundary to the upper ice boundary. In this model all of the sea ice characteristics are controlled by the vertical heat fluxes from the atmosphere and ocean into the ice. The thickness is controlled by the ice's becoming an effective insulator as it thickens, thus reducing conductive heat loss to the atmosphere. A second model emphasizes the effects of dynamics. It considers the ice pack to be a collection of floes moving in response to synoptic wind fields and ocean currents. These motions create semipermanent leads (open areas) over which ice can grow rapidly.

Climate Change Impacts on the Cryosphere of Mountain Regions: Validation of a Novel Model Using the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

2015-12-01

Mountain regions are natural water towers, storing water seasonally as snowpack and for much longer as glaciers. Understanding the response of these systems to climate change is necessary in order to make informed decisions about prevention or mitigation measures. Yet, mountain regions are often data sparse, leading many researchers to implement simple or enhanced temperature index (ETI) models to simulate cryosphere processes. These model structures do not account for the thermal inertia of snowpack and glaciers and do not robustly capture differences in system response to climate regimes that differ from those the model was calibrated for. For instance, a temperature index calibration parameter will differ substantially in cold-dry conditions versus warm-wet ones. To overcome these issues, we have developed a cryosphere hydrology model, called the Significantly Enhanced Temperature Index (SETI), which uses an energy balance structure but parameterizes energy balance components in terms of minimum, maximum and mean temperature, precipitation, and geometric inputs using established relationships. Additionally, the SETI model includes a glacier sliding model and can therefore be used to estimate long-term glacier response to climate change. Sensitivity of the SETI model to changing climate is compared with an ETI and a simple temperature index model for several partially-glaciated watersheds within Alaska, including Wolverine glacier where multi-decadal glacier stake measurements are available, to highlight the additional fidelity attributed to the increased complexity of the SETI structure. The SETI model is then applied to the entire Alaska Range region for an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs), using representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Comparing model runs based on ensembles of GCM projections to historic conditions, total annual snowfall within the Alaska region is not expected to change appreciably, but the spatial distribution of snow shifts towards higher elevations and for a large portion of the region the duration of snow cover decreases. The changes in temperature and snow distribution also lead to spatially heterogeneous responses by glaciers within the region. The SETI model is designed to be easy to apply for any mountain region where cryospheric processes dominate.

The Importance of the Spatial Density of Satellite Measurements for the Retrieval of Spatial Flux Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, J.; Nuñez Ramirez, T. G.; Kiemle, C.; Butz, A.; Hasekamp, O. P.; Ehret, G.; Heimann, M.

2014-12-01

Black carbon is one of the key short-lived climate pollutants, which is a topic of growing interest for near-term mitigation of climate change and air quality improvement. In this presentation we will examine the emissions and impact of black carbon and co-pollutants on the South American glacial region and describe some recent measurements associated with the PISAC (Pollution and its Impacts on the South American Cryosphere) Initiative. The Andes is the longest continental mountain range in the world, extending about 7000 km along western South America through seven countries with complex topography and covering several climate zones, diversity of ecosystems and communities. Air pollution associated with biomass burning and urban emissions affects extensive areas in the region and is a serious public health concern. Scientific evidence indicates that the Andean cryosphere is changing rapidly as snow fields and glaciers generally recede, leading to changes in stream flow and water quality along the Andes. The challenge is to identify the principal causes of the observed changes so that action can be taken to mitigate this negative trend. Despite the paucity of systematic observations along the Andes, a few modeling and observational studies have indicated the presence of black carbon in the high Andes, with potentially significant impact on the Andean cryosphere.

Black Carbon Emissions and Impacts on the South American Glacial Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, L. T.; Gallardo, L.; Schmitt, C. G.

2015-12-01

Black carbon is one of the key short-lived climate pollutants, which is a topic of growing interest for near-term mitigation of climate change and air quality improvement. In this presentation we will examine the emissions and impact of black carbon and co-pollutants on the South American glacial region and describe some recent measurements associated with the PISAC (Pollution and its Impacts on the South American Cryosphere) Initiative. The Andes is the longest continental mountain range in the world, extending about 7000 km along western South America through seven countries with complex topography and covering several climate zones, diversity of ecosystems and communities. Air pollution associated with biomass burning and urban emissions affects extensive areas in the region and is a serious public health concern. Scientific evidence indicates that the Andean cryosphere is changing rapidly as snow fields and glaciers generally recede, leading to changes in stream flow and water quality along the Andes. The challenge is to identify the principal causes of the observed changes so that action can be taken to mitigate this negative trend. Despite the paucity of systematic observations along the Andes, a few modeling and observational studies have indicated the presence of black carbon in the high Andes, with potentially significant impact on the Andean cryosphere.

Review and synthesis: Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grosse, Guido; Goetz, Scott; McGuire, A. David; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Schuur, Edward A.G.

2016-01-01

The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions.

Continental Heat Gain in the Global Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Beltrami, H.; Pollack, H. N.; Huang, S.

2001-12-01

Observed increases in 20th century surface-air temperatures are one consequence of a net energy flux into all major components of the Earth climate system including the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and lithosphere. Levitus et al. [2001] have estimated the heat gained by the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere as 18.2x1022 J, 6.6x1021 J, and 8.1x1021 J, respectively, over the past half-century. However the heat gain of the lithosphere via a heat flux across the solid surface of the continents (30% of the Earth's surface) was not addressed in the Levitus analysis. Here we calculate that final component of Earth's changing energy budget, using ground-surface temperature reconstructions for the continents [Huang et al., 2000]. These reconstructions have shown a warming of at least 0.5 K in the 20th century and were used to determine the flux estimates presented here. In the last half-century, the interval of time considered by Levitus et al., there was an average flux of 40 mW/m2 across the land surface into the subsurface, leading to 9.2x1021 J absorbed by the ground. This amount of heat is significantly less than the energy transferred into the oceans, but of the same magnitude as the energy absorbed by the atmosphere or cryosphere. The heat inputs into all the major components of the climate system - atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere - conservatively sum to more than 20x1022 J during the last half-century, and reinforce the conclusion that the warming in this interval has been truly global. Huang, S., Pollack, H.N., and Shen, P.-Y. 2000. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature. 403. 756-758 Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Wang, J., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. and Broccoli, A. 2001. Anthropogenic warming of the Earth's climate system. Science, 292, 267-270

An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere.

PubMed

Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goodstein, Eban S; Huntington, Henry P

2013-12-01

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

TXESS Revolution: Utilizing TERC's EarthLabs Cryosphere Module to Support Professional Development of Texas Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odell, M.; Ellins, K. K.; Polito, E. J.; Castillo Comer, C. A.; Stocks, E.; Manganella, K.; Ledley, T. S.

2010-12-01

TERC’s EarthLabs project provides rigorous and engaging Earth and environmental science labs. Four existing modules illustrate sequences for learning science concepts through data analysis activities and hands-on experiments. A fifth module, developed with NSF, comprises a series of linked inquiry based activities focused on the cryosphere to help students understand concepts around change over time on multiple and embedded time scales. Teachers recruited from the NSF-OEDG-sponsored Texas Earth and Space Science (TXESS) Revolution teacher professional development program conducted a pedagogical review of the Cryosphere EarthLabs module and provided feedback on how well the materials matched high school needs in Texas and were aligned with state and national standards. Five TXESS Revolution teachers field tested the materials in their classrooms and then trained other TXESS Revolution teachers on their implementation during spring and summer 2010. Here we report on the results of PD delivery during the summer 2010 TXESS Revolution summer institute as determined by (1) a set of evaluation instruments that included a pre-post concept map activity to assess changes in workshop teachers’ understanding of the concepts presented, a pre-post test content knowledge test, and a pre-post survey of teachers’ comfort in teaching the Texas Earth and Space Science standards addressed by the module; (2) teacher reflections; and (3) focus group responses. The findings reveal that the teachers liked the module activities and felt they could use them to teach Environmental and Earth Science. They appreciated that the sequence of activities contributed to a deeper understanding and observed that the variety of methods used to present the information accommodates different learning styles. Information about the cryosphere was new to all the teachers. The content knowledge tests reveal that although teachers made appreciable gains, their understanding of cryosphere, how it changes over time, and it’s role in Earth’s climate system remains weak. Our results clearly reflect the challenges of addressing the complexity of climate science and critical need for climate literacy education.

A Supplementary Clear-Sky Snow and Ice Recognition Technique for CERES Level 2 Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radkevich, Alexander; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Rutan, David; Kato, Seiji

2013-01-01

Identification of clear-sky snow and ice is an important step in the production of cryosphere radiation budget products, which are used in the derivation of long-term data series for climate research. In this paper, a new method of clear-sky snow/ice identification for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is presented. The algorithm's goal is to enhance the identification of snow and ice within the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data after application of the standard CERES scene identification scheme. The input of the algorithm uses spectral radiances from five MODIS bands and surface skin temperature available in the CERES Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product. The algorithm produces a cryosphere rating from an aggregated test: a higher rating corresponds to a more certain identification of the clear-sky snow/ice-covered scene. Empirical analysis of regions of interest representing distinctive targets such as snow, ice, ice and water clouds, open waters, and snow-free land selected from a number of MODIS images shows that the cryosphere rating of snow/ice targets falls into 95% confidence intervals lying above the same confidence intervals of all other targets. This enables recognition of clear-sky cryosphere by using a single threshold applied to the rating, which makes this technique different from traditional branching techniques based on multiple thresholds. Limited tests show that the established threshold clearly separates the cryosphere rating values computed for the cryosphere from those computed for noncryosphere scenes, whereas individual tests applied consequently cannot reliably identify the cryosphere for complex scenes.

Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates.

PubMed

Gilg, Olivier; Kovacs, Kit M; Aars, Jon; Fort, Jérôme; Gauthier, Gilles; Grémillet, David; Ims, Rolf A; Meltofte, Hans; Moreau, Jérôme; Post, Eric; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Yannic, Glenn; Bollache, Loïc

2012-02-01

Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via immigration from the South, many Arctic vertebrates are expected to become increasingly threatened during this century. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

The Joy of Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacAyeal, D. R.

2013-12-01

The effectiveness of cryospheric science in addressing its main purpose (predicting and assessing response to climate change) is powerfully, but intangibly enhanced by the mysterious nature and the remote locations of ice and snow phenomena. Study of the cryosphere, in essence, depends as much on the universal human desire to satisfy curiosity as it does on the fact that cryospheric science informs humanity about the consequences of the environmental changes now clearly visible in all realms of the cryosphere. In my presentation, I shall consider the study of ice-shelf dynamics and stability, and shall draw on the perspective of my 37 years of involvement in this small, but important corner of glaciology, to show where curiosity has, and continues to be, a major driver of understanding. Joyful moments within the development of ice-shelf glaciology include examples where complete misunderstandings and blind alleys have ironically led to unexpected insight into how related phenomena operate, including: the flow of ice streams, the role of sticky spots, styles and drivers of iceberg calving, tidewater glacier terminus behavior, the source mechanisms and interpretations of cryospheric related seismic signals, and the dynamics of iceberg-drift-steering ocean circulation in basins separated by mid-ocean ridges. The familiar joke, "Why did the man who lost his keys on a dark night only search underneath the streetlamp?", is apt for cryospheric science--but with a perverse twist: We cryospheric scientists are more akin to the man who is driven to also grope for the key in the darkness because of the chance that in addition to the key, the car that the key will start might also be found somewhere beyond the glow of the streetlamp.

The Deglacial to Holocene Paleoceanography of Bering Strait: Results From the SWERUS-C3 Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobsson, M.; Anderson, L. G.; Backman, J.; Barrientos, N.; Björk, G. M.; Coxall, H.; Cronin, T. M.; De Boer, A. M.; Gemery, L.; Jerram, K.; Johansson, C.; Kirchner, N.; Mayer, L. A.; Mörth, C. M.; Nilsson, J.; Noormets, R. R. N. N.; O'Regan, M.; Pearce, C.; Semiletov, I. P.; Stranne, C.

2017-12-01

The climate-carbon-cryosphere (C3) interactions in the East Siberian Arctic Ocean and related ocean, river and land areas of the Arctic have been the focus for the SWERUS-C3 Program (Swedish - Russian - US Arctic Ocean Investigation of Climate-Cryosphere-Carbon Interactions). This multi-investigator, multi-disciplinary program was carried out on a two-leg 90-day long expedition in 2014 with Swedish icebreaker Oden. One component of the expedition consisted of geophysical mapping and coring of Herald Canyon, located on the Chukchi Sea shelf north of the Bering Strait in the western Arctic Ocean. Herald Canyon is strategically placed to capture the history of the Pacific-Arctic Ocean connection and related changes in Arctic Ocean paleoceanography. Here we present a summary of key results from analyses of the marine geophysical mapping data and cores collected from Herald Canyon on the shelf and slope that proved to be particularly well suited for paleoceanographic reconstruction. For example, we provide a new age constraint of 11 cal ka BP on sediments from the uppermost slope for the initial flooding of the Bering Land Bridge and reestablishment of the Pacific-Arctic Ocean connection following the last glaciation. This age corresponds to meltwater pulse 1b (MWP1b) known as a post-Younger Dryas warming in many sea level and paleoclimate records. In addition, high late Holocene sedimentation rates that range between about 100 and 300 cm kyr-1, in Herald Canyon permitted paleoceanographic reconstructions of ocean circulation and sea ice cover at centennial scales throughout the late Holocene. Evidence suggests varying influence from inflowing Pacific water into the western Arctic Ocean including some evidence for quasi-cyclic variability in several paleoceanographic parameters, e.g. micropaleontological assemblages, isotope geochemistry and sediment physical properties.

ICEX: Ice and Climate Experiment. Report of science and applications working group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The Ice and Climate Experiment (ICEX), a proposed program of coordinated investigations of the ice and snow masses of the Earth (the "cryosphere") is described. These investigations are to be carried out with the help of satellite, aircraft, and surface based observations. Measurements derived from the investigations will be applied to an understanding of the role of the cryosphere in the system that determines the Earth's climate, to a better prediction of the responses of the ice and snow to climatic change, to studies of the basic nature of ice forms and ice dynamics, and to the development of operational techniques for assisting such activities in the polar regions as transportation, exploitation of natural resources, and petroleum exploration and production. A high-inclination satellite system with a set of remote-sensing instruments specially tailored to the task of observing the important features of snow, sea ice, and the ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctic is to be used to record the near-simultaneous observations of multiple geophysical parameters by complementary sensors.

New insights into the multi-scale climatic drivers of the "Karakoram anomaly"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collier, S.; Moelg, T.; Nicholson, L. I.; Maussion, F.; Scherer, D.; Bush, A. B.

2012-12-01

Glacier behaviour in the Karakoram region of the northwestern Himalaya shows strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity and, in some basins, anomalous trends compared with glaciers elsewhere in High Asia. Our knowledge of the mass balance fluctuations of Karakoram glaciers as well as of the important driving factors and interactions between them is limited by a scarcity of in-situ measurements and other studies. Here we employ a novel approach to simulating atmosphere-cryosphere interactions - coupled high-resolution atmospheric and physically-based surface mass balance modelling - to examine the surface energy and mass fluxes of glaciers in this region. We discuss the mesoscale climatic drivers behind surface mass balance fluctuations as well as the influence of local forcing factors, such as debris cover and feedbacks from the glacier surface to the atmosphere. The coupled modelling approach therefore provides an innovative, multi-scale solution to the paucity of information we have to date on the much-debated "Karakoram anomaly."

Evaluating climatic response to external radiative forcing during the late Miocene to early Pliocene: New perspectives from eastern equatorial Pacific (IODP U1338) and North Atlantic (ODP 982) locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drury, Anna Joy; John, Cédric M.; Shevenell, Amelia E.

2016-01-01

Orbital-scale climate variability during the latest Miocene-early Pliocene is poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution records spanning 8.0-3.5 Ma, which resolve all orbital cycles. Assessing this variability improves understanding of how Earth's system sensitivity to insolation evolves and provides insight into the factors driving the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) and the Late Miocene Carbon Isotope Shift (LMCIS). New high-resolution benthic foraminiferal Cibicidoides mundulus δ18O and δ13C records from equatorial Pacific International Ocean Drilling Program Site U1338 are correlated to North Atlantic Ocean Drilling Program Site 982 to obtain a global perspective. Four long-term benthic δ18O variations are identified: the Tortonian-Messinian, Miocene-Pliocene, and Early-Pliocene Oxygen Isotope Lows (8-7, 5.9-4.9, and 4.8-3.5 Ma) and the Messinian Oxygen Isotope High (MOH; 7-5.9 Ma). Obliquity-paced variability dominates throughout, except during the MOH. Eleven new orbital-scale isotopic stages are identified between 7.4 and 7.1 Ma. Cryosphere and carbon cycle sensitivities, estimated from δ18O and δ13C variability, suggest a weak cryosphere-carbon cycle coupling. The MSC termination coincided with moderate cryosphere sensitivity and reduced global ice sheets. The LMCIS coincided with reduced carbon cycle sensitivity, suggesting a driving force independent of insolation changes. The response of the cryosphere and carbon cycle to obliquity forcing is established, defined as Earth System Response (ESR). Observations reveal that two late Miocene-early Pliocene climate states existed. The first is a prevailing dynamic state with moderate ESR and obliquity-driven Antarctic ice variations, associated with reduced global ice volumes. The second is a stable state, which occurred during the MOH, with reduced ESR and lower obliquity-driven variability, associated with expanded global ice volumes.

Publications - MP 158 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska Deposits; Bluff; Coastal; Coastal Erosion; Depositional Environment; Dunes; Engineering Geology; Flood

Publications - IC 44 ed. 2004 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Map; Aeromagnetic Survey; Airborne Geophysical Survey; Alaska, State of; Bibliography; Coastal and

Using Internet of Things inspired wireless sensor networks to monitor cryospheric processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, J. K.; Martinez, K.

2017-12-01

In order to understand how modern climate change is effecting cryospheric environments we need to monitor these remote environments. There are few measurements of current day conditions because of the logistical difficulties. In particular, the whole year needs to be monitored, as well as accessing challenging environments (such as beneath the glacier). We demonstrate from Norway, Iceland and Scotland how embedded sensors along with geophysical (GPR)and surveying data (dGPS, TLS, UAV and time-lapse photography) can be used to investigate recent dramatic environmental changes associated with climate change. This includes: i) a comparison between stable and unstable glacier retreat (the subglacial hydrology, glacier motion, englacial structure and till behaviour of a rapid subaqueous glacier break-up compared with slower terrestrial retreat); and iii) an investigation of future ground stability and greenhouse gas release associated with periglacial conditions.

Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

2016-08-01

A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau's climate system and its impact on East Asia.

PubMed

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-03-13

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the "Third Pole" of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on "water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology" multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau’s climate system and its impact on East Asia

PubMed Central

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on “water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology” multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored. PMID:28287648

Report from the International Permafrost Association: carbon pools in permafrost regions

Treesearch

Peter Kuhry; Chien-Lu Ping; Edward A.G. Schuur; Charles Tarnocai; Sergey Zimov

2009-01-01

The IPA Carbon Pools in Permafrost Regions (CAPP) Project started in 2005, with endorsement of the Earth System Science Partnership (EESP) Global Carbon Project and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate and Cryosphere Project. CAPP is also a project of the IPY. The project was launched because there is considerable concern and increased awareness both...

Publications - RI 97-14B | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

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Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in , State of; Alluvial Deposits; Avalanche; Cambrian; Carboniferous; Cenozoic; Coastal and River; Coastal

Publications - RI 97-15D | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Coastal and River; Coastal and River Hazards; Construction Materials; Derivative; Engineering; Engineering

Publications - RI 2016-2 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

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Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in ; Bathymetry; Coastal; Coastal and River; Earthquake Related Slope Failure; Emergency Preparedness; Engineering

Publications - RI 97-15E | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Metadata - Read me Keywords Avalanche; Coastal and River; Coastal and River Hazards; Derivative; Earthquake

Publications - PDF 98-37D | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in - Read me Keywords Coastal and River; Coastal and River Hazards; Construction Materials; Decorative Stone

Publications - RDF 2015-2 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

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Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in -bay Shapefile 24.5 M Metadata - Read me Keywords Bathymetry; Bering Sea; Chukchi Sea; Coastal; Gambell

Presentations - Smith, J.R. and others, 2013 | Alaska Division of

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Engineering Geology Alaska Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to (1.4 M) Keywords Coastal; Coastal and River; Engineering Geology Posters and Presentations; Seward

Glacier protection laws: Potential conflicts in managing glacial hazards and adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Anacona, Pablo Iribarren; Kinney, Josie; Schaefer, Marius; Harrison, Stephan; Wilson, Ryan; Segovia, Alexis; Mazzorana, Bruno; Guerra, Felipe; Farías, David; Reynolds, John M; Glasser, Neil F

2018-03-13

The environmental, socioeconomic and cultural significance of glaciers has motivated several countries to regulate activities on glaciers and glacierized surroundings. However, laws written to specifically protect mountain glaciers have only recently been considered within national political agendas. Glacier Protection Laws (GPLs) originate in countries where mining has damaged glaciers and have been adopted with the aim of protecting the cryosphere from harmful activities. Here, we analyze GPLs in Argentina (approved) and Chile (under discussion) to identify potential environmental conflicts arising from law restrictions and omissions. We conclude that GPLs overlook the dynamics of glaciers and could prevent or delay actions needed to mitigate glacial hazards (e.g. artificial drainage of glacial lakes) thus placing populations at risk. Furthermore, GPL restrictions could hinder strategies (e.g. use of glacial lakes as reservoirs) to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change. Arguably, more flexible GPLs are needed to protect us from the changing cryosphere.

Evidence for stabilization of the ice-cemented cryosphere in earlier martian history: Implications for the current abundance of groundwater at depth on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, David K.; Head, James W.

2017-05-01

The present-day martian mean annual surface temperature is well below freezing at all latitudes; this produces a near-surface portion of the crust that is below the freezing point of water for > 2 consecutive years (defined as permafrost). This permafrost layer (i.e., the cryosphere) is a few to tens of km thick depending on latitude. Below the base of the permafrost (i.e., the cryosphere), groundwater is stable if it exists, and can increase and decrease in abundance as the freezing isotherm rises and falls. Where water is available, ice fills the pore space within the cryosphere; this region is known as the ice-cemented cryosphere (ICC). The potential for a large reservoir of pore ice beneath the surface has been the subject of much discussion: previous studies have demonstrated that the theoretical thickness of the martian cryosphere in the Amazonian period ranges from up to ∼9 km at the equator to ∼10-22 km at the poles. The total thickness of ice that might fill the pore space within the cryosphere (the ICC), however, remains unknown. A class of martian crater, the Hesperian-Amazonian-aged single-layered ejecta crater, is widely accepted as having formed by impact into an ice-cemented target. Although the target structure related to the larger multiple-layered ejecta craters remains uncertain, they have recently been interpreted to be formed by impact crater excavation below the ice-cemented target, and here we tentatively adopt this interpretation in order to infer the thickness of the ice-cemented cryosphere. Our global examination of the excavation depths of these crater populations points to a Hesperian-Amazonian-aged ice-cemented cryosphere that is ∼1.3 km thick at the equator, and ∼2.3 km thick at the poles (corresponding to a global equivalent water layer of ∼200 m assuming ∼20% pore ice at the surface). To explore the implications of this result on the martian climatic and hydrologic evolution, we then assess the surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, obliquity, and surface heat flux conditions under which the downward-propagating cryosphere freezing front matches the inferred ice-cemented cryosphere. The thermal models which can best reproduce the inferred ice-cemented cryosphere occur for obliquities between 25° and 45° and CO2 atmospheric pressures ≤600 mbar, but require increased heat fluxes and surface temperatures/pressures relative to the Amazonian period. Because the inferred ice-cemented cryosphere is much thinner compared with Amazonian-aged cryosphere thermal models, we suggest that the ice-cemented cryosphere ceased growing when it exhausted the underlying groundwater supply (i.e., ICC stabilization) in a more ancient period in Mars geologic history. Our thermal analysis suggests that this ICC stabilization likely occurred sometime before or at ∼3.0-3.3 Ga (during or before the Late Hesperian or Early Amazonian period). If groundwater remained below the ICC during the earlier Late Noachian period, our models predict that mean annual surface temperatures during this time were ≥212-227 K. If the Late Noachian had a pure CO2 atmosphere, this places a minimum bound on the Late Noachian atmospheric pressure of ≥390-850 mbar. These models suggest that deep groundwater is not abundant or does not persist in the subsurface of Mars today, and that diffusive loss of ice from the subsurface has been minimal.

Dissolved black carbon in the global cryosphere: Concentrations and chemical signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Alia L.; Wagner, Sasha; Jaffe, Rudolf; Xian, Peng; Williams, Mark; Armstrong, Richard; McKnight, Diane

2017-06-01

Black carbon (BC) is derived from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels and can enhance glacial recession when deposited on snow and ice surfaces. Here we explore the influence of environmental conditions and the proximity to anthropogenic sources on the concentration and composition of dissolved black carbon (DBC), as measured by benzenepolycaroxylic acid (BPCA) markers, across snow, lakes, and streams from the global cryosphere. Data are presented from Antarctica, the Arctic, and high alpine regions of the Himalayas, Rockies, Andes, and Alps. DBC concentrations spanned from 0.62 μg/L to 170 μg/L. The median and (2.5, 97.5) quantiles in the pristine samples were 1.8 μg/L (0.62, 12), and nonpristine samples were 21 μg/L (1.6, 170). DBC is susceptible to photodegradation when exposed to solar radiation. This process leads to a less condensed BPCA signature. In general, DBC across the data set was composed of less polycondensed DBC. However, DBC from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GRIS) had a highly condensed BPCA molecular signature. This could be due to recent deposition of BC from Canadian wildfires. Variation in DBC appears to be driven by a combination of photochemical processing and the source combustion conditions under which the DBC was formed. Overall, DBC was found to persist across the global cryosphere in both pristine and nonpristine snow and surface waters. The high concentration of DBC measured in supraglacial melt on the GRIS suggests that DBC can be mobilized across ice surfaces. This is significant because these processes may jointly exacerbate surface albedo reduction in the cryosphere.