Science.gov

Sample records for cumulative impacts study

  1. Study on the cumulative impact of reclamation activities on ecosystem health in coastal waters.

    PubMed

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Zheng, Wei; Li, Fen; Peng, Shitao; Ding, Dewen

    2016-02-15

    The purpose of this study is to develop feasible tools to investigate the cumulative impact of reclamations on coastal ecosystem health, so that the strategies of ecosystem-based management can be applied in the coastal zone. An indicator system and model were proposed to assess the cumulative impact synthetically. Two coastal water bodies, namely Laizhou Bay (LZB) and Tianjin coastal waters (TCW), in the Bohai Sea of China were studied and compared, each in a different phase of reclamations. Case studies showed that the indicator scores of coastal ecosystem health in LZB and TCW were 0.75 and 0.68 out of 1.0, respectively. It can be concluded that coastal reclamations have a historically cumulative effect on benthic environment, whose degree is larger than that on aquatic environment. The ecosystem-based management of coastal reclamations should emphasize the spatially and industrially intensive layout. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Public service impacts of geothermal development: cumulative impacts study of the Geysers KGRA. Final staff report

    SciTech Connect

    Matthews, K.M.

    1983-07-01

    The number of workers currently involved in the various aspects of geothermal development in the Geysers are identified. Using two different development scenarios, projections are made for the number of power plants needed to reach the electrical generation capacity of the steam resource in the Geysers. The report also projects the cumulative number of workers needed to develop the steam field and to construct, operate, and maintain these power plants. Although the number of construction workers fluctuates, most are not likely to become new, permanent residents of the KGRA counties. The administrative and public service costs of geothermal development to local jurisdications are examined, and these costs are compared to geothermal revenues accruing to the local governments. Revenues do not cover the immediate fiscal needs resulting from increases in local road maintenance and school enrollment attributable to geothermal development. Several mitigation options are discussed and a framework presented for calculating mitigation costs for school and road impacts.

  3. 40 CFR 1508.7 - Cumulative impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 33 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Cumulative impact. 1508.7 Section 1508.7 Protection of Environment COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY TERMINOLOGY AND INDEX § 1508.7 Cumulative impact. Cumulative impact is the impact on the environment which results from the incremental...

  4. 40 CFR 1508.7 - Cumulative impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 34 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Cumulative impact. 1508.7 Section 1508.7 Protection of Environment COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY TERMINOLOGY AND INDEX § 1508.7 Cumulative impact. Cumulative impact is the impact on the environment which results from the incremental...

  5. 40 CFR 1508.7 - Cumulative impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cumulative impact. 1508.7 Section 1508.7 Protection of Environment COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY TERMINOLOGY AND INDEX § 1508.7 Cumulative impact. Cumulative impact is the impact on the environment which results from the incremental...

  6. 40 CFR 1508.7 - Cumulative impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 34 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Cumulative impact. 1508.7 Section 1508.7 Protection of Environment COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY TERMINOLOGY AND INDEX § 1508.7 Cumulative impact. Cumulative impact is the impact on the environment which results from the incremental...

  7. 40 CFR 1508.7 - Cumulative impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 33 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Cumulative impact. 1508.7 Section 1508.7 Protection of Environment COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY TERMINOLOGY AND INDEX § 1508.7 Cumulative impact. Cumulative impact is the impact on the environment which results from the incremental...

  8. The Interacting Axes of Environmental, Health, and Social Justice Cumulative Impacts: A Case Study of the Blueberry River First Nations.

    PubMed

    Gislason, Maya K; Andersen, Holly K

    2016-10-18

    We consider the case of intensive resource extractive projects in the Blueberry River First Nations in Northern British Columbia, Canada, as a case study. Drawing on the parallels between concepts of cumulative environmental and cumulative health impacts, we highlight three axes along which to gauge the effects of intensive extraction projects. These are environmental, health, and social justice axes. Using an intersectional analysis highlights the way in which using individual indicators to measure impact, rather than considering cumulative effects, hides the full extent by which the affected First Nations communities are impacted by intensive extraction projects. We use the case study to contemplate several mechanisms at the intersection of these axes whereby the negative effects of each not only add but also amplify through their interactions. For example, direct impact along the environmental axis indirectly amplifies other health and social justice impacts separately from the direct impacts on those axes. We conclude there is significant work still to be done to use cumulative indicators to study the impacts of extractive industry projects-like liquefied natural gas-on peoples, environments, and health.

  9. The Interacting Axes of Environmental, Health, and Social Justice Cumulative Impacts: A Case Study of the Blueberry River First Nations

    PubMed Central

    Gislason, Maya K; Andersen, Holly K

    2016-01-01

    We consider the case of intensive resource extractive projects in the Blueberry River First Nations in Northern British Columbia, Canada, as a case study. Drawing on the parallels between concepts of cumulative environmental and cumulative health impacts, we highlight three axes along which to gauge the effects of intensive extraction projects. These are environmental, health, and social justice axes. Using an intersectional analysis highlights the way in which using individual indicators to measure impact, rather than considering cumulative effects, hides the full extent by which the affected First Nations communities are impacted by intensive extraction projects. We use the case study to contemplate several mechanisms at the intersection of these axes whereby the negative effects of each not only add but also amplify through their interactions. For example, direct impact along the environmental axis indirectly amplifies other health and social justice impacts separately from the direct impacts on those axes. We conclude there is significant work still to be done to use cumulative indicators to study the impacts of extractive industry projects—like liquefied natural gas—on peoples, environments, and health. PMID:27763548

  10. Cumulative impacts study of The Geysers KGRA: public-service impacts of geothermal development

    SciTech Connect

    Matthews, K.M.

    1982-05-01

    Geothermal development in The Geysers KGRA has affected local public services and fiscal resources in Sonoma, Lake, Mendocino, and Napa counties. Each of these counties underwent rapid population growth between 1970 and 1980, some of which can be attributed to geothermal development. The number of workers currently involved in the various aspects of geothermal development in The Geysers is identified. Using three different development scenarios, projections are made for the number of power plants needed to reach the electrical generation capacity of the steam resource in The Geysers. The report also projects the cumulative number of workers needed to develop the steam field and to construct, operate, and maintain these power plants. Although the number of construction workers fluctuates, most are not likely to become new, permanent residents of the KGRA counties. The administrative and public service costs of geothermal development to local jurisdictions are examined and compared to geothermal revenues accruing to the local governments. Revenues do not cover the immediate fiscal needs resulting from increases in local road maintenance and school enrollment attributable to geothermal development. Several mitigation options are discussed, and a framework is presented for calculating mitigation costs per unit of public service.

  11. Methodological Considerations in Screening for Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Study in California

    PubMed Central

    August, Laura Meehan; Faust, John B.; Cushing, Lara; Zeise, Lauren; Alexeeff, George V.

    2012-01-01

    Polluting facilities and hazardous sites are often concentrated in low-income communities of color already facing additional stressors to their health. The influence of socioeconomic status is not considered in traditional models of risk assessment. We describe a pilot study of a screening method that considers both pollution burden and population characteristics in assessing the potential for cumulative impacts. The goal is to identify communities that warrant further attention and to thereby provide actionable guidance to decision- and policy-makers in achieving environmental justice. The method uses indicators related to five components to develop a relative cumulative impact score for use in comparing communities: exposures, public health effects, environmental effects, sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors. Here, we describe several methodological considerations in combining disparate data sources and report on the results of sensitivity analyses meant to guide future improvements in cumulative impact assessments. We discuss criteria for the selection of appropriate indicators, correlations between them, and consider data quality and the influence of choices regarding model structure. We conclude that the results of this model are largely robust to changes in model structure. PMID:23202671

  12. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

    PubMed

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

  13. Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

    SciTech Connect

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1994-12-31

    This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

  14. Do discourse global coherence and cumulated information impact on sentence syntactic processing? An event-related brain potentials study.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Gutiérrez, David; Jiménez-Ortega, Laura; Fondevila, Sabela; Casado, Pilar; Muñoz, Francisco; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed at exploring how two main primarily semantic factors of discourse comprehension, namely global coherence and amount of information cumulated across a passage, may impact on the sentential syntactic processing. This was measured in two event-related brain potentials (ERP) to grammatical (morphosyntactic) violations: anterior negativities (LAN) and posterior positivities (P600). Global coherence did not yield any significant effects on either ERP component, although it appeared advantageous to the detection of morphosyntactic errors. Anterior negativities were also unaffected by the amount of cumulated information. Accordingly, it seems that first-pass syntactic processes are unaffected by these discourse variables. In contrast, the first portion of the P600 was significantly modulated (increased) by the latter factor. This probably reflects bigger efforts to combine sentential information during situations highly demanding for working memory. Our results would suggest that processes involved in global discourse coherence appear relatively independent of the on-line syntactic and combinatorial mechanisms reflected in the LAN and the P600 components of the ERPs.

  15. An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

    1988-09-01

    Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

  16. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision Process...

  17. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision Process...

  18. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision Process...

  19. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision Process...

  20. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision...

  1. Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments

    SciTech Connect

    McCold, L.N.; Saulsbury, J.W.

    1996-09-01

    Environmental concerns such as loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion have heightened awareness of the need to assess cumulative impacts in environmental documents. More than 20 years of experience with National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have provided analysts in the United States with opportunities for developing successful techniques to assess site-specific impacts of proposed actions. Methods for analyzing a proposed action`s incremental contribution to cumulative impacts are generally less advanced than those for project-specific impacts. The Presidents Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) defines cumulative impact to include the impacts of {open_quotes}past, present and reasonably foreseeable future actions{close_quotes} regardless of who undertakes the action. Court decisions have helped clarify the distinction between reasonably foreseeable future actions and other possible future actions. This paper seeks to clarify how past and present impacts should be included in cumulative impact analyses. The definition of cumulative impacts implies that cumulative impact analyses should include the effects of all past and present actions on a particular resource. Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments increases the likelihood of identifying significant impacts. NEPA requires agencies to give more consideration to alternatives and mitigation and to provide more opportunities for public involvement for actions that would have significant impacts than for actions that would not cause or contribute to significant impacts. For an action that would contribute to significant cumulative impacts, the additional cost and effort involved in increased consideration of alternatives and mitigation and in additional public involvement may be avoided if the action can be modified so that its contributions to significant cumulative impacts are eliminated. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  2. Impact of field of study, college and year on calculation of cumulative grade point average.

    PubMed

    Trail, Carla; Reiter, Harold I; Bridge, Michelle; Stefanowska, Patricia; Schmuck, Marylou; Norman, Geoff

    2008-08-01

    A consistent finding from many reviews is that undergraduate Grade Point Average (uGPA) is a key predictor of academic success in medical school. Curiously, while uGPA has established predictive validity, little is known about its reliability. For a variety of reasons, medical schools use different weighting schemas to combine years of study. Additional concerns relate to the equivalence of grades obtained from different fields of study and institutions, with little hard data to guide conclusions. At the Michael G. DeGroote School of Medicine Class of 2007 at McMaster University, every undergraduate grade of 2,138 applicants, along with field of study and post-secondary educational institution, was analyzed. Individual grades were aggregated into an overall uGPA using published algorithms from several medical school, and correlated with a non-weighted sum. Correlations of the different schemas with equal weights ranged from 0.973 to 0.990. The extent of the difference between fields of study was small, accounting for only 1.5% of the variance. However, differences among 16 Ontario universities were larger, and accounted for 9.3% of the variance. The results of this study suggest that all weighting schemas are virtually equivalent, making any formulation reasonable. Differences by field of study are small, but do not show any bias against non-science students. Differences by institution are larger, amounting to a range in average score from 78.7 to 84.6; however it is not clear whether this reflects candidate ability or institutional policy, so attempts to correct for institution may be difficult.

  3. Impact of Field of Study, College and Year on Calculation of Cumulative Grade Point Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trail, Carla; Reiter, Harold I.; Bridge, Michelle; Stefanowska, Patricia; Schmuck, Marylou; Norman, Geoff

    2008-01-01

    A consistent finding from many reviews is that undergraduate Grade Point Average (uGPA) is a key predictor of academic success in medical school. Curiously, while uGPA has established predictive validity, little is known about its reliability. For a variety of reasons, medical schools use different weighting schemas to combine years of study.…

  4. Impact of Field of Study, College and Year on Calculation of Cumulative Grade Point Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trail, Carla; Reiter, Harold I.; Bridge, Michelle; Stefanowska, Patricia; Schmuck, Marylou; Norman, Geoff

    2008-01-01

    A consistent finding from many reviews is that undergraduate Grade Point Average (uGPA) is a key predictor of academic success in medical school. Curiously, while uGPA has established predictive validity, little is known about its reliability. For a variety of reasons, medical schools use different weighting schemas to combine years of study.…

  5. Documentation of cumulative impacts in environmental impact statements

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, T.A.; Canter, L.W.

    1997-11-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations in the United States require federal agencies to apply an environmental impact assessment (EIA) in decision-making related to their actions. One aspect requires an examination of direct, indirect and cumulative impacts (CIs). Historically, cumulative impact assessment (CIA) has been given limited attention in EIA and resultant environmental impact statements (EISs), not because of its lack of importance, but owing to limitations in methodologies and procedures, including documentation consistency. The objectives of this study were to identify deficiencies in the documentation of CIs and CIA in EISs and to formulate appropriate recommendations (potential solutions) related to such deficiencies. The study involved the systematic review of 33 EISs. The results indicate that improvements have been made in documentation practices since 1990; however, inconsistencies and inadequacies still exist. Therefore, the following recommendations were developed: (1) CIs should be reported in a separate part of the Environmental Consequences section, and they should be addressed for each pertinent environmental resource; (2) a summary of CIs should be included; (3) any CIs considered not significant should be mentioned plus the reason(s) for their non-significance; (4) spatial and temporal boundaries addressed within the CIA process should be defined for pertinent environmental resources; and (5) utilized guidelines and methodologies should be described.

  6. 25. Cumulative effects assessment impact thresholds: myths and realities

    Treesearch

    Robert R. Ziemer

    1994-01-01

    A cumulative impact has been commonly defined as: ""...the impact on the environment which results from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency or person undertakes such other actions. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor but collectively...

  7. Serious, minor, and non-delinquents in early adolescence: the impact of cumulative risk and promotive factors. The TRAILS study.

    PubMed

    van der Laan, André M; Veenstra, René; Bogaerts, Stefan; Verhulst, Frank C; Ormel, Johan

    2010-04-01

    This study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of temperament, family and school factors in preadolescence were examined on different groups of delinquents (based on self-report) in early adolescence. Data from the first two waves of the TRAILS study (N = 2,230) were used. The results provide evidence for a compensatory model that assumes main effects of risk and promotive factors on problem behavior. Accumulation of risks in preadolescence promoted being a serious delinquent in early adolescence, with the strongest effects for temperament. Accumulation of promotive effects decreased being a delinquent and supported being a non-delinquent. Furthermore, evidence is found for a counter-balancing effect of cumulative promotive and risk factors. Exposure to more promotive domains in the relative absence of risk domains decreased the percentage of serious delinquents. Our results did not support a protective model. Implications for prevention and intervention are discussed.

  8. A feasibility study on assessing public health impacts of cumulative air pollution reduction activities in a small geographic area

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background and Objective: The rnain objective ofthis study was to examine the feasibility ofconducting a local (e.g., city level) assessment ofthe public health impacts ofcumulative air pollution reduction activities (a.k.a. accountability) from the federal, state, local and vo...

  9. A feasibility study on assessing public health impacts of cumulative air pollution reduction activities in a small geographic area

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background and Objective: The rnain objective ofthis study was to examine the feasibility ofconducting a local (e.g., city level) assessment ofthe public health impacts ofcumulative air pollution reduction activities (a.k.a. accountability) from the federal, state, local and vo...

  10. Cumulative impacts of mountaintop mining on an Appalachian watershed.

    PubMed

    Lindberg, T Ty; Bernhardt, Emily S; Bier, Raven; Helton, A M; Merola, R Brittany; Vengosh, Avner; Di Giulio, Richard T

    2011-12-27

    Mountaintop mining is the dominant form of coal mining and the largest driver of land cover change in the central Appalachians. The waste rock from these surface mines is disposed of in the adjacent river valleys, leading to a burial of headwater streams and dramatic increases in salinity and trace metal concentrations immediately downstream. In this synoptic study we document the cumulative impact of more than 100 mining discharge outlets and approximately 28 km(2) of active and reclaimed surface coal mines on the Upper Mud River of West Virginia. We measured the concentrations of major and trace elements within the tributaries and the mainstem and found that upstream of the mines water quality was equivalent to state reference sites. However, as eight separate mining-impacted tributaries contributed their flow, conductivity and the concentrations of selenium, sulfate, magnesium, and other inorganic solutes increased at a rate directly proportional to the upstream areal extent of mining. We found strong linear correlations between the concentrations of these contaminants in the river and the proportion of the contributing watershed in surface mines. All tributaries draining mountaintop-mining-impacted catchments were characterized by high conductivity and increased sulfate concentration, while concentrations of some solutes such as Se, Sr, and N were lower in the two tributaries draining reclaimed mines. Our results demonstrate the cumulative impact of multiple mines within a single catchment and provide evidence that mines reclaimed nearly two decades ago continue to contribute significantly to water quality degradation within this watershed.

  11. Cumulative impacts of mountaintop mining on an Appalachian watershed

    PubMed Central

    Lindberg, T. Ty; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Bier, Raven; Helton, A. M.; Merola, R. Brittany; Vengosh, Avner; Di Giulio, Richard T.

    2011-01-01

    Mountaintop mining is the dominant form of coal mining and the largest driver of land cover change in the central Appalachians. The waste rock from these surface mines is disposed of in the adjacent river valleys, leading to a burial of headwater streams and dramatic increases in salinity and trace metal concentrations immediately downstream. In this synoptic study we document the cumulative impact of more than 100 mining discharge outlets and approximately 28 km2 of active and reclaimed surface coal mines on the Upper Mud River of West Virginia. We measured the concentrations of major and trace elements within the tributaries and the mainstem and found that upstream of the mines water quality was equivalent to state reference sites. However, as eight separate mining-impacted tributaries contributed their flow, conductivity and the concentrations of selenium, sulfate, magnesium, and other inorganic solutes increased at a rate directly proportional to the upstream areal extent of mining. We found strong linear correlations between the concentrations of these contaminants in the river and the proportion of the contributing watershed in surface mines. All tributaries draining mountaintop-mining-impacted catchments were characterized by high conductivity and increased sulfate concentration, while concentrations of some solutes such as Se, Sr, and N were lower in the two tributaries draining reclaimed mines. Our results demonstrate the cumulative impact of multiple mines within a single catchment and provide evidence that mines reclaimed nearly two decades ago continue to contribute significantly to water quality degradation within this watershed. PMID:22160676

  12. A longitudinal study of the impact of cumulative violence victimization on comorbid posttraumatic stress and depression among female nurses and nursing personnel.

    PubMed

    Cavanaugh, Courtenay; Campbell, Jacquelyn; Messing, Jill T

    2014-06-01

    This study examined the impact of cumulative violence victimization on health care workers' subsequent posttraumatic stress-depression comorbidity. Female nurses and nursing personnel (N = 1,044) answered questions about lifetime violence victimization (e.g., childhood abuse, intimate partner violence, and workplace violence) at baseline and completed the Primary Care Posttraumatic Stress (PTS) Disorder screen and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale 6 months later. Seven percent screened positive for comorbid posttraumatic stress-depression at 6-month monitoring. Workers who reported one, two, or three or more types of violence victimization at baseline had 2.41 (p < .10), 2.35 (p > .05), and 6.44 (p < .01) greater odds, respectively, of subsequently screening positive for comorbid PTS-depression compared to their counterparts who reported no violence victimization at baseline. These results suggest the need to provide female nurses and nursing personnel with information about (1) the risk cumulative violence victimization poses for poorer mental health and functioning, and (2) evidence-based trauma informed treatment options outside their place of employment for those affected by violence victimization who develop mental health symptoms. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

  13. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    PubMed

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  14. No evidence for a cumulative impact effect on concussion injury threshold.

    PubMed

    Eckner, James T; Sabin, Matthew; Kutcher, Jeffrey S; Broglio, Steven P

    2011-10-01

    Recent studies using a helmet-based accelerometer system (Head Impact Telemetry System [HITS]) have demonstrated that concussions result from a wide range of head impact magnitudes. Variability in concussion thresholds has been proposed to result from the cumulative effect of non-concussive head impacts prior to injury. We used the HITS to collect biomechanical data representing >100,000 head impacts in 95 high school football players over 4 years. The cumulative impact histories prior to 20 concussive impacts in 19 athletes were compared to the cumulative impact histories prior to the three largest magnitude non-concussive head impacts in the same athletes. No differences were present in any impact history variable between the concussive and non-concussive high magnitude impacts. These analyses included the number of head impacts, cumulative HIT severity profile value, cumulative linear acceleration, and cumulative rotational acceleration during the same practice or game session, as well as over the 30 min and 1 week preceding these impacts. Our data do not support the proposal that impact volume or intensity influence concussion threshold in high school football athletes.

  15. Cumulative Head Impact Burden in High School Football

    PubMed Central

    Eckner, James T.; Martini, Douglas; Sosnoff, Jacob J.; Kutcher, Jeffrey S.; Randolph, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Impacts to the head are common in collision sports such as football. Emerging research has begun to elucidate concussion tolerance levels, but sub-concussive impacts that do not result in clinical signs or symptoms of concussion are much more common, and are speculated to lead to alterations in cerebral structure and function later in life. We investigated the cumulative number of head impacts and their associated acceleration burden in 95 high school football players across four seasons of play using the Head Impact Telemetry System (HITS). The 4-year investigation resulted in 101,994 impacts collected across 190 practice sessions and 50 games. The number of impacts per 14-week season varied by playing position and starting status, with the average player sustaining 652 impacts. Linemen sustained the highest number of impacts per season (868); followed by tight ends, running backs, and linebackers (619); then quarterbacks (467); and receivers, cornerbacks, and safeties (372). Post-impact accelerations of the head also varied by playing position and starting status, with a seasonal linear acceleration burden of 16,746.1g, while the rotational acceleration and HIT severity profile burdens were 1,090,697.7 rad/sec2 and 10,021, respectively. The adolescent athletes in this study clearly sustained a large number of impacts to the head, with an impressive associated acceleration burden as a direct result of football participation. These findings raise concern about the relationship between sub-concussive head impacts incurred during football participation and late-life cerebral pathogenesis, and justify consideration of ways to best minimize impacts and mitigate cognitive declines. PMID:21787201

  16. Cumulative head impact burden in high school football.

    PubMed

    Broglio, Steven P; Eckner, James T; Martini, Douglas; Sosnoff, Jacob J; Kutcher, Jeffrey S; Randolph, Christopher

    2011-10-01

    Impacts to the head are common in collision sports such as football. Emerging research has begun to elucidate concussion tolerance levels, but sub-concussive impacts that do not result in clinical signs or symptoms of concussion are much more common, and are speculated to lead to alterations in cerebral structure and function later in life. We investigated the cumulative number of head impacts and their associated acceleration burden in 95 high school football players across four seasons of play using the Head Impact Telemetry System (HITS). The 4-year investigation resulted in 101,994 impacts collected across 190 practice sessions and 50 games. The number of impacts per 14-week season varied by playing position and starting status, with the average player sustaining 652 impacts. Linemen sustained the highest number of impacts per season (868); followed by tight ends, running backs, and linebackers (619); then quarterbacks (467); and receivers, cornerbacks, and safeties (372). Post-impact accelerations of the head also varied by playing position and starting status, with a seasonal linear acceleration burden of 16,746.1g, while the rotational acceleration and HIT severity profile burdens were 1,090,697.7 rad/sec(2) and 10,021, respectively. The adolescent athletes in this study clearly sustained a large number of impacts to the head, with an impressive associated acceleration burden as a direct result of football participation. These findings raise concern about the relationship between sub-concussive head impacts incurred during football participation and late-life cerebral pathogenesis, and justify consideration of ways to best minimize impacts and mitigate cognitive declines.

  17. Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

  18. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

    2015-01-15

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process.

  19. A SYNOPTIC APPROACH FOR ASSESSING CUMULATIVE IMPACTS TO WETLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US Environmental Protection Agency's Wetlands Research Program has developed the synoptic approach as a proposed method for assessing cumulative impacts to wetlands by providing both a general and a comprehensive view of the environment. It can also be applied more broadly to...

  20. Cumulative impacts of oil fields on northern Alaskan landscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Binnian, Emily F.; Everett, K.R.; Lederer, N.D.; Nordstrand, E.A.; Walker, M.D.

    1987-01-01

    Proposed further developments on Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain raise questions about cumulative effects on arctic tundra ecosystems of development of multiple large oil fields. Maps of historical changes to the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field show indirect impacts can lag behind planned developments by many years and the total area eventually disturbed can greatly exceed the planned area of construction. For example, in the wettest parts of the oil field (flat thaw-lake plains), flooding and thermokarst covered more than twice the area directly affected by roads and other construction activities. Protecting critical wildlife habitat is the central issue for cumulative impact analysis in northern Alaska. Comprehensive landscape planning with the use of geographic information system technology and detailed geobotanical maps can help identify and protect areas of high wildlife use.

  1. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

    PubMed

    Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

    2017-09-01

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

  2. Assessing the cumulative impact of disturbance on canopy structure and chemistry in Appalachian forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deel, Lindsay N.

    Eastern forests experience a range of disturbance events over time, from stand-replacing disturbances, such as clear cuts, to ephemeral disturbances, such as insect outbreaks. By understanding the cumulative impact of disturbances on canopy structure and chemistry, we can gain insight into management strategies, assess a variety of ecosystem services, and even contribute to a larger body of knowledge on global climate change. I transformed a series of Landsat images spanning approximately 25 years into cumulative disturbance maps covering Green Ridge State Forest and Savage River State Forest in western Maryland. Intensive field surveys collected during the summer of 2009 provided measurements of canopy N and estimates of canopy cover, understory cover, and leaf cover. I used AVIRIS imagery flown concurrently with field data collection to map canopy nitrogen across both forests. Through this project, I tested the impact of cumulative disturbance on forest canopy cover and canopy nitrogen. I found that increased values of cumulative disturbance had a measurable negative impact on forest canopy structure and canopy nitrogen. Moreover, by testing varying methods of summing cumulative disturbance, I found that past disturbances diminish over time in importance, yet still influence the current canopy structure and canopy N of a forest. Thus, my study suggests that Landsat time series data can be synthesized into cumulative metrics incorporating multiple disturbance types, which help explain important disturbance-mediated changes in ecosystem functions.

  3. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples.

    PubMed

    Wright, Andrew J; Kyhn, Line A

    2015-04-01

    Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts.

  4. Cumulative impact of marinas on estuarine water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAllister, T. L.; Overton, M. F.; Brill, E. D.

    1996-05-01

    The purpose of this work is to present a modeling approach for assessing and managing the cumulative impact of marinas on estuarine systems. In doing so, both a water-quality model and a planning and management model are developed. The water-quality model predicts biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and fecal coliform (FC) loadings from marina sources in a hypothetical North Carolina estuary. By running the water-quality model repeatedly with varied loading input, impact coefficients are determined. These impact coefficients are used in the planning and management model, the output of which gives the sizes and locations of marinas in the estuarine system such that dissolved oxygen (DO) and FC water-quality standards are maintained. Five different estuarine development scenarios are considered. Each scenario is evaluated with respect to both maximum and uniform land development constraints. In addition, two alternative fecal coliform standards are used with each of the development options.

  5. Cumulative Impact of Marinas on Estuarine Water Quality

    PubMed

    McAllister; Overton; Brill

    1996-05-01

    The purpose of this work is to present a modeling approach for assessing and managing the cumulative impact of marinas on estuarine systems. In doing so, both a water-quality model and a planning and management model are developed. The water-quality model predicts biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and fecal coliform (FC) loadings from marina sources in a hypothetical North Carolina estuary. By running the water-quality model repeatedly with varied loading input, impact coefficients are determined. These impact coefficients are used in the planning and management model, the output of which gives the sizes and locations of marinas in the estuarine system such that dissolved oxygen (DO) and FC water-quality standards are maintained.Five different estuarine development scenarios are considered. Each scenario is evaluated with respect to both maximum and uniform land development constraints. In addition, two alternative fecal coliform standards are used with each of the development options.

  6. Cumulative Impact Damage Evaluation of Automotive Aluminum Bumper Beam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Heon Young; Choi, Jong Gil; Kim, Min Gun; Lee, Kang Wook; Ha, Dae Yul; Yeo, Tae Jung

    We performed numerical analyses using an explicit code to evaluate the cumulative impact damage of an automotive aluminum front-end bumper back beam during low-speed crash events, as described by CMVSS215. we used a coupled numerical analysis scheme and considered the several fracture criterion such as EWK rupture model and plastic strain limit in the PAM-CRASH code to improve our damage and fracture estimates. Tensile test experiments for the notched and un-notched specimens were conducted to tune the performance of the EWK rupture model; The resulting material properties and fracture criterion were incorporated into the numerical analyses of the low-speed crash events. The simulation results were compared with the impact test.

  7. Health Impact Assessment: Linking Public Health to Community Decisions (Cumulative Impacts Community Vulnerability Symposium)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of this presentation is to explore how HIA can help inform hazardous waste permitting regulations and incorporate community vulnerability and cumulative impacts to their potential health risks into permitting decision making by the California Department of Toxic Substanc...

  8. Studies of two cumulative effects riddles

    Treesearch

    R. M. Rice; R. R. Ziemer; J. Lewis; T. E. Lisle

    1989-01-01

    Although it is unquestionably prudent to consider the cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) of timber harvesting, the presumed CWE phenomena offer limited opportunity for scientific inquiry. We are addressing two questions: are there synergistic sedimentation effects of sufficient magnitude to warrant consideration beyond efforts to reduce on-site erosion; and what are...

  9. Cumulative silvicultural impacts on watersheds: a hydrologic and regulatory dilemma

    SciTech Connect

    Coats, R.M.; Miller, T.O.

    1981-03-01

    Because of the nature of watersheds, the hydrologic and erosional impacts of logging and related road-building activities may move offsite, affecting areas downslope and downstream from the operation. The degree to which this occurs depends on the interaction of many variables, including soils, bedrock geology, vegetation, the timing, and size of storm events, logging technology, and operator performance. In parts of northwestern California, these variables combine to produce significant water quality degradation, with resulting damage to anadromous fish habitat. Examination of recent aerial photographs, combined with a review of public records, shows that many timber harvest operations were concentrated in a single 83 sq km watershed in the lower Klamath River Basin within the past decade. The resulting soil disturbance in this case seems likely to result in cumulative off-site water quality degradation in the lower portion of the Basin. In California, both state and federal laws require consideration of possible cumulative effects of multiple timber harvest operations. In spite of recent reforms that have given the state a larger role in regulating forest practices on private land, each timber harvest plan is still evaluated in isolation from other plans in the same watershed. A process of collaborative state-private watershed planning with increased input of geologic information offers the best long-term approach to the problem of assessing cumulative effects of multiple timber harvest operations. Such a reform could ultimately emerge from the ongoing water quality planning process under Section 208 of the amended Federal Water Pollution Control Act. (Refs. 51).

  10. A mobile test facility based on a magnetic cumulative generator to study the stability of the power plants under impact of lightning currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shurupov, A. V.; Zavalova, V. E.; Kozlov, A. V.; Shurupov, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The report presents the results of the development and field testing of a mobile test facility based on a helical magnetic cumulative generator (MCGTF). The system is designed for full-scale modeling of lightning currents to study the safety of power plants of any type, including nuclear power plants. Advanced technologies of high-energy physics for solving both engineering and applied problems underlie this pilot project. The energy from the magnetic cumulative generator (MCG) is transferred to a high-impedance load with high efficiency of more than 50% using pulse transformer coupling. Modeling of the dynamics of the MEG that operates in a circuit with lumped parameters allows one to apply the law of inductance output during operation of the MCG, thus providing the required front of the current pulse in the load without using any switches. The results of field testing of the MCGTF are presented for both the ground loop and the model load. The ground loop generates a load resistance of 2-4 Ω. In the tests, the ohmic resistance of the model load is 10 Ω. It is shown that the current pulse parameters recorded in the resistive-inductive load are close to the calculated values.

  11. A mobile test facility based on a magnetic cumulative generator to study the stability of the power plants under impact of lightning currents

    SciTech Connect

    Shurupov, A. V.; Zavalova, V. E. Kozlov, A. V.; Shurupov, M. A.

    2016-12-15

    The report presents the results of the development and field testing of a mobile test facility based on a helical magnetic cumulative generator (MCGTF). The system is designed for full-scale modeling of lightning currents to study the safety of power plants of any type, including nuclear power plants. Advanced technologies of high-energy physics for solving both engineering and applied problems underlie this pilot project. The energy from the magnetic cumulative generator (MCG) is transferred to a high-impedance load with high efficiency of more than 50% using pulse transformer coupling. Modeling of the dynamics of the MEG that operates in a circuit with lumped parameters allows one to apply the law of inductance output during operation of the MCG, thus providing the required front of the current pulse in the load without using any switches. The results of field testing of the MCGTF are presented for both the ground loop and the model load. The ground loop generates a load resistance of 2–4 Ω. In the tests, the ohmic resistance of the model load is 10 Ω. It is shown that the current pulse parameters recorded in the resistive-inductive load are close to the calculated values.

  12. Cumulative biological impacts of The Geysers geothermal development

    SciTech Connect

    Brownell, J.A.

    1981-10-01

    The cumulative nature of current and potential future biological impacts from full geothermal development in the steam-dominated portion of The Geysers-Calistoga KGRA are identified by the California Energy Commission staff. Vegetation, wildlife, and aquatic resources information have been reviewed and evaluated. Impacts and their significance are discussed and staff recommendations presented. Development of 3000 MW of electrical energy will result in direct vegetation losses of 2790 acres, based on an estimate of 11.5% loss per lease-hold of 0.93 acres/MW. If unmitigated, losses will be greater. Indirect vegetation losses and damage occur from steam emissions which contain elements (particularly boron) toxic to vegetation. Other potential impacts include chronic low-level boron exposure, acid rain, local climate modification, and mechanical damage. A potential exists for significant reduction and changes in wildlife from direct habitat loss and development influences. Highly erosive soils create the potential for significant reduction of aquatic resources, particularly game fish. Toxic spills have caused some temporary losses of aquatic species. Staff recommends monitoring and implementation of mitigation measures at all geothermal development stages.

  13. The impact of cumulative family risks on various levels of food insecurity.

    PubMed

    Hernandez, Daphne C

    2015-03-01

    The study uses the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study (N=2025) to examine the relationship between four cumulative family risk indices and refined measures of food hardship: marginal food security, low food security, and very low food security. Regression analyses indicate that cumulative family risk indices are useful in differentiating various levels of food insecurity. Specifically, the maternal poor health and risky health behaviors index is pertinent for distinguishing (1) food insecure from marginal food secure households and (2) very low food secure from low food secure households. In addition, the financial strain index is pertinent for differentiating between marginal food secure families from food secure families among non-poor households. Connecting food assistance programs with established social services may decrease the negative impact that cumulative family-level risk factors have on families' varying levels of food insecurity.

  14. Assessing cumulative impacts within state environmental review frameworks in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Ma Zhao; Becker, Dennis R.; Kilgore, Michael A.

    2009-11-15

    Cumulative impact assessment (CIA) is the process of systematically assessing a proposed action's cumulative environmental effects in the context of past, present, and future actions, regardless of who undertakes such actions. Previous studies have examined CIA efforts at the federal level but little is known about how states assess the cumulative impacts of nonfederal projects. By examining state environmental review statutes, administrative rules, agency-prepared materials, and a national survey of the administrators of state environmental review programs, this study identifies the legal and administrative frameworks for CIA. It examines current CIA practice, discusses the relationship between CIA policy and its implementation, and explores the opportunities for improvement. The results of the study show that twenty-nine state environmental review programs across twenty-six states required the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. More than half of these programs have adopted specific procedures for implementing their policies. Some programs assessed cumulative impacts using a standard review document, and others have created their own documentations incorporated into applications for state permits or funding. The majority of programs have adopted various scales, baselines, significance criteria, and coordination practices in their CIA processes. Mixed methods were generally used for data collection and analysis; qualitative methods were more prevalent than quantitative methods. The results also suggest that a program with comprehensive and consistent environmental review policies and procedures does not always imply extensive CIA requirements and practices. Finally, this study discusses the potential for improving existing CIA processes and promoting CIA efforts in states without established environmental review programs.

  15. GIS based procedure of cumulative environmental impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Balakrishna Reddy, M; Blah, Baiantimon

    2009-07-01

    Scale and spatial limits of impact assessment study in a GIS platform are two very important factors that could have a bearing on the genuineness and quality of impact assessment. While effect of scale has been documented and well understood, no significant study has been carried out on spatial considerations in an impact assessment study employing GIS technique. A novel technique of impact assessment demonstrable through GIS approach termed hereby as 'spatial data integrated GIS impact assessment method (SGIAM)' is narrated in this paper. The technique makes a fundamental presumption that the importance of environmental impacts is dependent, among other things, on spatial distribution of the effects of the proposed action and of the affected receptors in a study area. For each environmental component considered (e.g., air quality), impact indices are calculated through aggregation of impact indicators which are measures of the severity of the impact. The presence and spread of environmental descriptors are suitably quantified through modeling techniques and depicted. The environmental impact index is calculated from data exported from ArcINFO, thus giving significant importance to spatial data in the impact assessment exercise.

  16. Double-Jeopardy: The Joint Impact of Neighborhood Disadvantage and Low Social Cohesion on Cumulative Risk of Disease Among African American Men and Women in the Jackson Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    Barber, Sharrelle; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S.V.; Earls, Felton

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Few studies have examined the joint impact of neighborhood disadvantage and low social cohesion on health. Moreover, no study has considered the joint impact of these factors on a cumulative disease risk profile among a large sample of African American adults. Using data from the Jackson Heart Study, we examined the extent to which social cohesion modifies the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and cumulative biological risk (CBR)—a measure of accumulated risk across multiple physiological systems. Methods Our analysis included 4,408 African American women and men ages 21–85 residing in the Jackson, MS Metropolitan Area. We measured neighborhood disadvantage using a composite score of socioeconomic indicators from the 2000 US Census and social cohesion was assessed using a 5-item validated scale. Standardized z-scores of biomarkers representing cardiovascular, metabolic, inflammatory, and neuroendocrine systems were combined to create a CBR score. We used two-level linear regression models with random intercepts adjusting for socio-demographic and behavioral covariates in the analysis. A three-way interaction term was included to examine whether the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and CBR differed by levels of social cohesion and gender. Results The interaction between neighborhood disadvantage, social cohesion and gender was statistically significant (p=0.05) such that the association between living in a disadvantaged neighborhood and CBR was strongest for men living in neighborhoods with low levels of social cohesion (B=0.63, SE: 0.32). In gender-specific models, we found a statistically significant interaction between neighborhood disadvantage and social cohesion for men (p=0.05) but not for women (p=0.50). Conclusion Neighborhoods characterized by high levels of economic disadvantage and low levels of social cohesion contribute to higher cumulative risk of disease among African American men. This suggests that they may

  17. Double-jeopardy: The joint impact of neighborhood disadvantage and low social cohesion on cumulative risk of disease among African American men and women in the Jackson Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Barber, Sharrelle; Hickson, DeMarc A; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S V; Earls, Felton

    2016-03-01

    Few studies have examined the joint impact of neighborhood disadvantage and low social cohesion on health. Moreover, no study has considered the joint impact of these factors on a cumulative disease risk profile among a large sample of African American adults. Using data from the Jackson Heart Study, we examined the extent to which social cohesion modifies the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and cumulative biological risk (CBR)-a measure of accumulated risk across multiple physiological systems. Our analysis included 4408 African American women and men ages 21-85 residing in the Jackson, MS Metropolitan Area. We measured neighborhood disadvantage using a composite score of socioeconomic indicators from the 2000 US Census and social cohesion was assessed using a 5-item validated scale. Standardized z-scores of biomarkers representing cardiovascular, metabolic, inflammatory, and neuroendocrine systems were combined to create a CBR score. We used two-level linear regression models with random intercepts adjusting for socio-demographic and behavioral covariates in the analysis. A three-way interaction term was included to examine whether the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and CBR differed by levels of social cohesion and gender. The interaction between neighborhood disadvantage, social cohesion and gender was statistically significant (p = 0.05) such that the association between living in a disadvantaged neighborhood and CBR was strongest for men living in neighborhoods with low levels of social cohesion (B = 0.63, SE: 0.32). In gender-specific models, we found a statistically significant interaction between neighborhood disadvantage and social cohesion for men (p = 0.05) but not for women (p = 0.50). Neighborhoods characterized by high levels of economic disadvantage and low levels of social cohesion contribute to higher cumulative risk of disease among African American men. This suggests that they may face a unique set of challenges

  18. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power... § 2.23 Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. The... opportunity for hearing by the licensee and all interested parties. Hydropower licenses also contain...

  19. Turning stumbling blocks into stepping stones in the analysis of cumulative impacts

    Treesearch

    Leslie M. Reid

    2004-01-01

    Federal and state legislation, such as the National Environmental Policy Act and the California Environmental Quality Act, require that responsible agency staff consider the cumulative impacts of proposed activities before permits are issued for certain kinds of public or private projects. The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ 1997) defined a cumulative impact as...

  20. Head Impact Exposure in Youth Football: High School Ages 14 to 18 Years and Cumulative Impact Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Urban, Jillian E.; Davenport, Elizabeth M.; Golman, Adam J.; Maldjian, Joseph A.; Whitlow, Christopher T.; Powers, Alexander K.; Stitzel, Joel D.

    2015-01-01

    Sports-related concussion is the most common athletic head injury with football having the highest rate among high school athletes. Traditionally, research on the biomechanics of football-related head impact has been focused at the collegiate level. Less research has been performed at the high school level, despite the incidence of concussion among high school football players. The objective of this study is to twofold: to quantify the head impact exposure in high school football, and to develop a cumulative impact analysis method. Head impact exposure was measured by instrumenting the helmets of 40 high school football players with helmet mounted accelerometer arrays to measure linear and rotational acceleration. A total of 16,502 head impacts were collected over the course of the season. Biomechanical data were analyzed by team and by player. The median impact for each player ranged from 15.2 to 27.0 g with an average value of 21.7 (±2.4) g. The 95th percentile impact for each player ranged from 38.8 to 72.9 g with an average value of 56.4 (±10.5) g. Next, an impact exposure metric utilizing concussion injury risk curves was created to quantify cumulative exposure for each participating player over the course of the season. Impacts were weighted according to the associated risk due to linear acceleration and rotational acceleration alone, as well as the combined probability (CP) of injury associated with both. These risks were summed over the course of a season to generate risk weighted cumulative exposure. The impact frequency was found to be greater during games compared to practices with an average number of impacts per session of 15.5 and 9.4, respectively. However, the median cumulative risk weighted exposure based on combined probability was found to be greater for practices vs. games. These data will provide a metric that may be used to better understand the cumulative effects of repetitive head impacts, injury mechanisms, and head impact exposure of

  1. Head impact exposure in youth football: high school ages 14 to 18 years and cumulative impact analysis.

    PubMed

    Urban, Jillian E; Davenport, Elizabeth M; Golman, Adam J; Maldjian, Joseph A; Whitlow, Christopher T; Powers, Alexander K; Stitzel, Joel D

    2013-12-01

    Sports-related concussion is the most common athletic head injury with football having the highest rate among high school athletes. Traditionally, research on the biomechanics of football-related head impact has been focused at the collegiate level. Less research has been performed at the high school level, despite the incidence of concussion among high school football players. The objective of this study is to twofold: to quantify the head impact exposure in high school football, and to develop a cumulative impact analysis method. Head impact exposure was measured by instrumenting the helmets of 40 high school football players with helmet mounted accelerometer arrays to measure linear and rotational acceleration. A total of 16,502 head impacts were collected over the course of the season. Biomechanical data were analyzed by team and by player. The median impact for each player ranged from 15.2 to 27.0 g with an average value of 21.7 (±2.4) g. The 95th percentile impact for each player ranged from 38.8 to 72.9 g with an average value of 56.4 (±10.5) g. Next, an impact exposure metric utilizing concussion injury risk curves was created to quantify cumulative exposure for each participating player over the course of the season. Impacts were weighted according to the associated risk due to linear acceleration and rotational acceleration alone, as well as the combined probability (CP) of injury associated with both. These risks were summed over the course of a season to generate risk weighted cumulative exposure. The impact frequency was found to be greater during games compared to practices with an average number of impacts per session of 15.5 and 9.4, respectively. However, the median cumulative risk weighted exposure based on combined probability was found to be greater for practices vs. games. These data will provide a metric that may be used to better understand the cumulative effects of repetitive head impacts, injury mechanisms, and head impact exposure of

  2. Three-particle cumulant study of conical emission

    SciTech Connect

    Pruneau, Claude A.

    2009-04-15

    We discuss the sensitivity of the three-particle azimuthal cumulant method for a search and study of conical emission in central relativistic A+A collisions. Our study is based on a multicomponent Monte Carlo model that includes flow background, Gaussian monojets, jet flow, and Gaussian conical signals. We find the observation of conical emission is hindered by the presence of flow harmonics of fourth order (v{sub 4}) but remains feasible even in the presence of a substantial background. We consider the use of probability cumulants for the suppression of second-order flow harmonics. We find that although probability cumulant significantly reduce v{sub 2}{sup 2} contributions, they also complicate the cumulant of jets and conical emission. The use of probability cumulants is therefore not particularly advantageous in searches for conical emission. We find the sensitivity of the (density) cumulant method depends inextricably on strengths of v{sub 2}, v{sub 4}, background, and non-Poisson character of particle production. It thus cannot be expressed in a simple form and without specific assumptions about the values of these parameters.

  3. Cumulative impacts: current research and current opinions at PSW

    Treesearch

    R. M. Rice

    1987-01-01

    Consideration of cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) has both political and physical aspects. Regardless of the practical usefulness of present methods of dealing with CWEs, the legal requirement to address them remains. Management of federal land is regulated by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972. The...

  4. Assessing cumulative impacts to elk and mule deer in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neil, T.A.; Witmer, G.W.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, we illustrate the method, using the potential for cumulative impacts to elk and mule deer from multiple hydroelectric development in the Salmon River Basin of Idaho. We attempted to incorporate knowledge of elk and mule deer habitat needs into a paradigm to assess cumulative impacts and aid in the regulatory decision making process. Undoubtedly, other methods could be developed based on different needs or constraints, but we offer this technique as a means to further refine cumulative impact assessment. Our approach is divided into three phases: analysis, evaluation, and documentation. 36 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  5. Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

    PubMed

    Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

  7. DESIGNING STUDIES AND COLLECTING DATA USEFUL FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    DESIGNING STUDIES AND COLLECTING DATA USEFUL FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT. J E Simmons1, C Gennings2, M Casey2, M J Plewa3, E D Wagner3, W H Carter, Jr.2, A McDonald1,Y M Sey1, L K Teuschler3 1NHEERL, ORD, U.S. EPA, RTP NC, USA; 2VCU, Richmond, VA, USA;3Univ. Illinois, Urba...

  8. DESIGNING STUDIES AND COLLECTING DATA USEFUL FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    DESIGNING STUDIES AND COLLECTING DATA USEFUL FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT. J E Simmons1, C Gennings2, M Casey2, M J Plewa3, E D Wagner3, W H Carter, Jr.2, A McDonald1,Y M Sey1, L K Teuschler3 1NHEERL, ORD, U.S. EPA, RTP NC, USA; 2VCU, Richmond, VA, USA;3Univ. Illinois, Urba...

  9. Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

    2014-01-01

    Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations. PMID:25469162

  10. Cumulative abuse: do things add up? An evaluation of the conceptualization, operationalization, and methodological approaches in the study of the phenomenon of cumulative abuse.

    PubMed

    Scott-Storey, Kelly

    2011-07-01

    For women, any one type of abuse rarely occurs in isolation of other types, and a single abusive experience is often the exception rather than the norm. The importance of this concept of the cumulative nature of abuse and its negative impact on health has been well recognized within the empirical literature, however there has been little consensus on what to call this phenomenon or how to study it. For the most part researchers have operated on the premise that it is the sheer number of different types of cumulating abuse experiences that is primarily responsible for worse health outcomes among women. And although this simplistic 'more is worse' approach to conceptualizing and operationalizing cumulative abuse has proven to be a powerful predictor of poorer health, it contradicts growing empirical evidence that suggests not all victimizations are created equal and that some victimizations may have a more deleterious effect on health than others. Embedded in abuse histories are individual and abuse characteristics as well as other life adversities that need to be considered in order to fully understand the spectrum and magnitude of cumulative abuse and its impact on women's health. Furthermore, given the long-term and persistent effects of abuse on health it becomes imperative to not only evaluate recent abusive experiences, but rather all abuse experiences occurring across the lifespan. This review highlights and evaluates the conceptual, operational, and methodological challenges posed by our current methods of studying and understanding the phenomenon of cumulative abuse and suggests that this phenomenon and its relationship to health is much more complex than research is currently portraying. This paper calls for the urgent need for interdisciplinary collaboration in order to more effectively and innovatively study the phenomenon of cumulative abuse.

  11. Frequency, magnitude, and distribution of head impacts in Pop Warner football: the cumulative burden.

    PubMed

    Wong, Ricky H; Wong, Andrew K; Bailes, Julian E

    2014-03-01

    A growing body of research suggests that subconcussive head impacts or repetitive mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) can have cumulative and deleterious effects. Several studies have investigated head impacts in football at the professional, collegiate, and high school levels, in an attempt to elucidate the biomechanics of head impacts among football players. Youth football players, generally from 7 to 14 years of age, constitute 70% of all football players, yet burden of, and susceptibility to, head injury in this population is not well known. A novel impact sensor utilizing binary force switches (Shockbox(®)) was used to follow an entire Pop Warner football team consisting of twenty-two players for six games and five practices. The impact sensor was designed to record impacts with linear accelerations over 30g. In addition, video recording of games and practices were used to further characterize the head impacts by type of position (skilled versus unskilled), field location of impact (open field versus line of scrimmage), type of hit (tackling, tackled, or hold/push), and whether the impact was a head-to-head impact or not. We recorded a total of 480 head impacts. An average of 21.8 head impacts occurred per practice, while 61.8 occurred per game. Players had an average of 3.7 head impacts per game and 1.5 impacts per practice (p<0.001). The number of high magnitude head impacts (>80g) was 11. Two concussions were diagnosed over the course of the season. However, due to technical reasons the biomechanics of those hits resulting in concussions were not captured. Despite smaller players and slower play when compared to high school, collegiate or professional players, those involved in youth football sustain a moderate number of head impacts per season with several high magnitude impacts. Our results suggest that players involved in open-field, tackling plays that have head-to-head contact sustain impacts with the highest linear accelerations. Our data supports

  12. Cumulative impact assessments and bird/wind farm interactions: Developing a conceptual framework

    SciTech Connect

    Masden, Elizabeth A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Bullman, Rhys; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-15

    The wind power industry has grown rapidly in the UK to meet EU targets of sourcing 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Although wind power is a renewable energy source, there are environmental concerns over increasing numbers of wind farm proposals and associated cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. EU and UK legislation requires a cumulative impact assessment (CIA) as part of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA). However, in the absence of detailed guidance and definitions, such assessments within EIA are rarely adequate, restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Here we propose a conceptual framework to promote transparency in CIA through the explicit definition of impacts, actions and scales within an assessment. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development EIAs. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating CIA to a strategic level, as a component of spatially explicit planning.

  13. Cumulative and career-stage citation impact of social-personality psychology programs and their members.

    PubMed

    Nosek, Brian A; Graham, Jesse; Lindner, Nicole M; Kesebir, Selin; Hawkins, Carlee Beth; Hahn, Cheryl; Schmidt, Kathleen; Motyl, Matt; Joy-Gaba, Jennifer; Frazier, Rebecca; Tenney, Elizabeth R

    2010-10-01

    Number of citations and the h-index are popular metrics for indexing scientific impact. These, and other existing metrics, are strongly related to scientists' seniority. This article introduces complementary indicators that are unrelated to the number of years since PhD. To illustrate cumulative and career-stage approaches for assessing the scientific impact across a discipline, citations for 611 scientists from 97 U.S. and Canadian social psychology programs are amassed and analyzed. Results provide benchmarks for evaluating impact across the career span in psychology and other disciplines with similar citation patterns. Career-stage indicators provide a very different perspective on individual and program impact than cumulative impact, and may predict emerging scientists and programs. Comparing social groups, Whites and men had higher impact than non-Whites and women, respectively. However, average differences in career stage accounted for most of the difference for both groups.

  14. Neighborhood green, social support, physical activity, and stress: assessing the cumulative impact.

    PubMed

    Fan, Yingling; Das, Kirti V; Chen, Qian

    2011-11-01

    We estimate the cumulative stress mitigating impact of neighborhood greenness by investigating whether neighborhood green mitigates stress directly, and indirectly by encouraging physical activity and/or fostering social support. Using data from a recent community health survey in Chicago and two-stage instrumental variables regression modeling, we find that different components of neighborhood green play distinct roles in influencing stress. Park spaces are found to indirectly mitigate stress by fostering social support. Overall neighborhood vegetation is found to have direct stress mitigation impact, yet the impact is counteracted by its negative effect on social support. When comparing the effect size, park spaces show a more positive impact on health and well-being than the overall neighborhood vegetation level. Policy makers are recommended to focus on creating structured green spaces with public recreation and socialization opportunities rather than simply conserving green spaces in the neighborhood. Previous studies, as they often investigate the direct impact only and rarely use multiple measures of greenness, may have mis-estimated health benefits of neighborhood green.

  15. Colored noise: A case study of the cumulant method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Der, R.; Schumacher, W.

    1990-05-01

    The time ordered operator cumulant expansion (R. Kubo, R.F. Fox) is one of the standard tools for treating classical or quantum systems influenced by colored noise. Because of its poor convergency properties, partial summations become imperative if the noise is not weak. A recently developed resummed version of the cumulant expansion is shown in the present paper to yield in a conventional way correct physical results in situations where the cumulant expansion extended to the fourth cumulant drastically fails. The theory amounts to a renormalization procedure of the bare physical parameters occurring in the second cumulant expression.

  16. Cumulative impacts of human activities on urban garden soils: origin and accumulation of metals.

    PubMed

    Szolnoki, Zs; Farsang, A; Puskás, I

    2013-06-01

    The concentration of heavy metals and soil properties in fifty urban garden soils of Szeged (SE Hungary) were determined to evaluate the cumulative impacts of urbanization and cultivation on these soils. Using two enrichment factors (EFs) (based on reference horizon; Ti as reference element) and multivariate statistical analysis (PCA), the origin of the studied elements was defined. According to statistical coincidence of EFs confirmed by t-test, anthropogenic enrichment of Cu (EF = 4), Zn (EF = 2.7) and Pb (EF = 2.5) was significant in topsoils. Moreover, PCA also revealed the geogenic origin of Ni, Co, Cr and As and differentiated two groups of the anthropogenic metals [Pb, Zn] [Cu]. Spatial distribution of the metals visualized by GIS reflected the traffic origin of Pb; while based on ANOVA, the anthropogenic source of Cu is relevant (mainly pesticides) and there is a statistically significant difference in its concentration depending on land use.

  17. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL RULES GENERAL...

  18. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL RULES GENERAL...

  19. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL RULES GENERAL...

  20. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL RULES GENERAL...

  1. 75 FR 38540 - Notice of Availability of Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement Updating Cumulative...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-02

    ... Analysis for the Newmont Mining Corporation South Operations Area Project Amendment, Nevada AGENCY: Bureau... Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to update the cumulative effects analysis for Newmont Mining Corporation's... Decision (ROD) for Newmont Mining Corporation's South Operations Area Project Amendment (SOAPA), an...

  2. Cumulative environmental impacts and integrated coastal management: the case of Xiamen, China.

    PubMed

    Xue, Xiongzhi; Hong, Huasheng; Charles, Anthony T

    2004-07-01

    This paper examines the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts and the implementation of integrated coastal management within the harbour of Xiamen, China, an urban region in which the coastal zone is under increasing pressure as a result of very rapid economic growth. The first stage of analysis incorporates components of a cumulative effects assessment, including (a) identification of sources of environmental impacts, notably industrial expansion, port development, shipping, waste disposal, aquaculture and coastal construction, (b) selection of a set of valued ecosystem components, focusing on circulation and siltation, water quality, sediment, the benthic community, and mangrove forests, and (c) use of a set of key indicators to examine cumulative impacts arising from the aggregate of human activities. In the second stage of analysis, the paper describes and assesses the development of an institutional framework for integrated coastal management in Xiamen, one that combines policy and planning (including legislative and enforcement mechanisms) with scientific and monitoring mechanisms (including an innovative 'marine functional zoning' system). The paper concludes that the integrated coastal management framework in Xiamen has met all relevant requirements for 'integration' as laid out in the literature, and has explicitly incorporated consideration of cumulative impacts within its management and monitoring processes.

  3. Cumulative human impacts on Mediterranean and Black Sea marine ecosystems: assessing current pressures and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Halpern, Benjamin S; Walbridge, Shaun; Ciriaco, Saul; Ferretti, Francesco; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Lewison, Rebecca; Nykjaer, Leo; Rosenberg, Andrew A

    2013-01-01

    Management of marine ecosystems requires spatial information on current impacts. In several marine regions, including the Mediterranean and Black Sea, legal mandates and agreements to implement ecosystem-based management and spatial plans provide new opportunities to balance uses and protection of marine ecosystems. Analyses of the intensity and distribution of cumulative impacts of human activities directly connected to the ecological goals of these policy efforts are critically needed. Quantification and mapping of the cumulative impact of 22 drivers to 17 marine ecosystems reveals that 20% of the entire basin and 60-99% of the territorial waters of EU member states are heavily impacted, with high human impact occurring in all ecoregions and territorial waters. Less than 1% of these regions are relatively unaffected. This high impact results from multiple drivers, rather than one individual use or stressor, with climatic drivers (increasing temperature and UV, and acidification), demersal fishing, ship traffic, and, in coastal areas, pollution from land accounting for a majority of cumulative impacts. These results show that coordinated management of key areas and activities could significantly improve the condition of these marine ecosystems.

  4. Cumulative Human Impacts on Mediterranean and Black Sea Marine Ecosystems: Assessing Current Pressures and Opportunities

    PubMed Central

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Walbridge, Shaun; Ciriaco, Saul; Ferretti, Francesco; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Lewison, Rebecca; Nykjaer, Leo; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

    2013-01-01

    Management of marine ecosystems requires spatial information on current impacts. In several marine regions, including the Mediterranean and Black Sea, legal mandates and agreements to implement ecosystem-based management and spatial plans provide new opportunities to balance uses and protection of marine ecosystems. Analyses of the intensity and distribution of cumulative impacts of human activities directly connected to the ecological goals of these policy efforts are critically needed. Quantification and mapping of the cumulative impact of 22 drivers to 17 marine ecosystems reveals that 20% of the entire basin and 60–99% of the territorial waters of EU member states are heavily impacted, with high human impact occurring in all ecoregions and territorial waters. Less than 1% of these regions are relatively unaffected. This high impact results from multiple drivers, rather than one individual use or stressor, with climatic drivers (increasing temperature and UV, and acidification), demersal fishing, ship traffic, and, in coastal areas, pollution from land accounting for a majority of cumulative impacts. These results show that coordinated management of key areas and activities could significantly improve the condition of these marine ecosystems. PMID:24324585

  5. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean.

    PubMed

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Walbridge, Shaun

    2015-07-14

    Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems.

  6. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

    PubMed Central

    Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S.; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R. Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Walbridge, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems. PMID:26172980

  7. Strategic environmental assessment of mining activities: A methodology for quantification of cumulative impacts on the air quality.

    PubMed

    Cavalcanti, Paulina Maria Porto Silva; La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre

    2011-04-01

    Environmental impact assessments in Brazil have usually focused solely on project-related issues without considering the regional context. Although required by current environmental legislation, cumulative impact assessments have not been included in the overall environmental assessment of projects. However, in recent Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) studies of policies, plans, and programs undertaken on a voluntary basis in support of the decision-making process, this kind of assessment has been performed especially with respect to air quality. This paper presents the application of a methodology for the quantification of cumulative impacts on air quality under high uncertainty caused by various mining activities in a single region that is recommended for SEA studies. In this way, the methodology presented here is suitable for areas lacking detailed modeling information. The developed approach uses a relatively simplified mathematical model, lowering information gathering costs and requiring little processing time. The application of the methodology is illustrated in the case of a SEA of the Corumbá Mining and Industrial Complex Development Program. Despite the lack of data needed for a minimum characterization of conditions of the area surrounding the region modeled, the quantification of impact cumulativeness on air quality has played an important role in the context of the SEA.

  8. Procedures for assessment of cumulative impacts of coal mining on the hydrologic balance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lumb, Alan M.

    1982-01-01

    Techniques were developed to assess the probable cumulative impacts of anticipated surface mining upon the hydrology of and area. An activity profile of cumulative drainage area versus river miles downstream from the surface mining site is constructed that shows major water uses, flood prone areas, and stream classifications. From the summary shown by the activity profile, an impact matrix is used as a checklist for the importance of the impacts under categories such as water supply, flood prone areas, water contact recreation, etc. Based on the categories checked on the impact matrix, a simple, less accurate model or a more comprehensive and accurate one can be used to quantify the impacts. Quantified impacts are then displayed on an impact profile showing the percentage change in a hydrologic characteristic versus distance downstream of the surface mining site. The simple model for quantification considers only dilution from tributary areas during critical periods whereas the comprehensive model routes flows and quality of water continuously through the year and considers, in addition to dilution, instream processes such as settling, biological uptake , and chemical reactions. (USGS)

  9. Assessing cumulative impacts to wintering Bald Eagles and their habitats in western Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Witmer, G.W.; O'Neil, T.A.

    1988-01-01

    Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) of Washington, the largest wintering population in the lower 48 states, are subject to numerous pressures and impacts from human activites. An evaluative method potential cumulative impacts of multiple hydroelectric development and logging activities on known and potential eagle use areas. Four resource components include food supply, roost sites, mature riparian forest, and disturbance. In addition to actual estimates of losses in food supply (fish biomass in kg) and habitat (km/sup 2/) in one river basin, impact levels from 0 (none) to 4 (high) were assigned for each development and for each component based on the impacts anticipated and the estimated value of the site to eagles. Midwinter eagle surveys, aerial photography, topographic and forest stand maps, and site visits were used in the analysis. Impacts were considered additive for all but the disturbance component, which was adjusted for potential synergism between developments. Adjustments were made for mitigation before the impacts were aggregated into a single, dimensionless cumulative impact score. 50 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  10. Role of slope stability in cumulative impact assessment of hydropower development: North Cascades, Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, R.R.; Staub, W.P.

    1993-08-01

    Two environmental assessments considered the potential cumulative environmental impacts resulting from the development of eight proposed hydropower projects in the Nooksack River Basin and 11 proposed projects in the Skagit River Basin, North Cascades, Washington, respectively. While not identified as a target resource, slope stability and the alteration of sediment supply to creeks and river mainstems significantly affect other resources. The slope stability assessment emphasized the potential for cumulative impacts under disturbed conditions (e.g., road construction and timber harvesting) and a landslide-induced pipeline rupture scenario. In the case of small-scale slides, the sluicing action of ruptured pipeline water on the fresh landslide scarp was found to be capable of eroding significantly more material than the original landslide. For large-scale landslides, sluiced material was found to be a small increment of the original landslide. These results predicted that hypothetical accidental pipeline rupture by small-scale landslides may result in potential cumulative impacts for 12 of the 19 projects with pending license applications in both river basins. 5 refs., 2 tabs.

  11. Benchmark Study of Density Cumulant Functional Theory: Thermochemistry and Kinetics.

    PubMed

    Copan, Andreas V; Sokolov, Alexander Yu; Schaefer, Henry F

    2014-06-10

    We present an extensive benchmark study of density cumulant functional theory (DCFT) for thermochemistry and kinetics of closed- and open-shell molecules. The performance of DCFT methods (DC-06, DC-12, ODC-06, and ODC-12) is compared to that of coupled-electron pair methods (CEPA0 and OCEPA0) and coupled-cluster theory (CCSD and CCSD(T)) for the description of noncovalent interactions (A24 database), barrier heights of hydrogen-transfer reactions (HTBH38), radical stabilization energies (RSE30), adiabatic ionization energies (AIE), and covalent bond stretching in diatomic molecules. Our results indicate that out of four DCFT methods the ODC-12 method is the most reliable and accurate DCFT formulation to date. Compared to CCSD, ODC-12 shows superior results for all benchmark tests employed in our study. With respect to coupled-pair theories, ODC-12 outperforms CEPA0 and shows similar accuracy to the orbital-optimized CEPA0 variant (OCEPA0) for systems at equilibrium geometries. For covalent bond stretching, ODC-12 is found to be more reliable than OCEPA0. For the RSE30 and AIE data sets, ODC-12 shows competitive performance with CCSD(T). In addition to benchmark results, we report new reference values for the RSE30 data set computed using coupled cluster theory with up to perturbative quadruple excitations.

  12. Bridging science and traditional knowledge to assess cumulative impacts of stressors on ecosystem health.

    PubMed

    Mantyka-Pringle, Chrystal S; Jardine, Timothy D; Bradford, Lori; Bharadwaj, Lalita; Kythreotis, Andrew P; Fresque-Baxter, Jennifer; Kelly, Erin; Somers, Gila; Doig, Lorne E; Jones, Paul D; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

    2017-05-01

    Cumulative environmental impacts driven by anthropogenic stressors lead to disproportionate effects on indigenous communities that are reliant on land and water resources. Understanding and counteracting these effects requires knowledge from multiple sources. Yet the combined use of Traditional Knowledge (TK) and Scientific Knowledge (SK) has both technical and philosophical hurdles to overcome, and suffers from inherently imbalanced power dynamics that can disfavour the very communities it intends to benefit. In this article, we present a 'two-eyed seeing' approach for co-producing and blending knowledge about ecosystem health by using an adapted Bayesian Belief Network for the Slave River and Delta region in Canada's Northwest Territories. We highlight how bridging TK and SK with a combination of field data, interview transcripts, existing models, and expert judgement can address key questions about ecosystem health when considerable uncertainty exists. SK indicators (e.g., bird counts, mercury in fish, water depth) were graded as moderate, whereas TK indicators (e.g., bird usage, fish aesthetics, changes to water flow) were graded as being poor in comparison to the past. SK indicators were predominantly spatial (i.e., comparing to other locations) while the TK indicators were predominantly temporal (i.e., comparing across time). After being populated by 16 experts (local harvesters, Elders, governmental representatives, and scientists) using both TK and SK, the model output reported low probabilities that the social-ecological system is healthy as it used to be. We argue that it is novel and important to bridge TK and SK to address the challenges of environmental change such as the cumulative impacts of multiple stressors on ecosystems and the services they provide. This study presents a critical social-ecological tool for widening the evidence-base to a more holistic understanding of the system dynamics of multiple environmental stressors in ecosystems and for

  13. Addressing uncertainty in modelling cumulative impacts within maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic and Ionian region

    PubMed Central

    Sarretta, Alessandro; Appiotti, Federica; Maragno, Denis; Vianello, Andrea; Depellegrin, Daniel; Venier, Chiara; Barbanti, Andrea

    2017-01-01

    Maritime spatial planning (MSP) is envisaged as a tool to apply an ecosystem-based approach to the marine and coastal realms, aiming at ensuring that the collective pressure of human activities is kept within acceptable limits. Cumulative impacts (CI) assessment can support science-based MSP, in order to understand the existing and potential impacts of human uses on the marine environment. A CI assessment includes several sources of uncertainty that can hinder the correct interpretation of its results if not explicitly incorporated in the decision-making process. This study proposes a three-level methodology to perform a general uncertainty analysis integrated with the CI assessment for MSP, applied to the Adriatic and Ionian Region (AIR). We describe the nature and level of uncertainty with the help of expert judgement and elicitation to include all of the possible sources of uncertainty related to the CI model with assumptions and gaps related to the case-based MSP process in the AIR. Next, we use the results to tailor the global uncertainty analysis to spatially describe the uncertainty distribution and variations of the CI scores dependent on the CI model factors. The results show the variability of the uncertainty in the AIR, with only limited portions robustly identified as the most or the least impacted areas under multiple model factors hypothesis. The results are discussed for the level and type of reliable information and insights they provide to decision-making. The most significant uncertainty factors are identified to facilitate the adaptive MSP process and to establish research priorities to fill knowledge gaps for subsequent planning cycles. The method aims to depict the potential CI effects, as well as the extent and spatial variation of the data and scientific uncertainty; therefore, this method constitutes a suitable tool to inform the potential establishment of the precautionary principle in MSP. PMID:28692688

  14. Cumulative impacts of dock shading on Spartina alterniflora in South Carolina estuaries.

    PubMed

    Sanger, Denise M; Holland, A Frederick; Gainey, Christopher

    2004-05-01

    Salt marshes dominated by Spartina alterniflora and the associated networks of tidal creeks that drain them are characteristic geographical features of southeastern estuaries, important nursery habitat areas, and preferred sites for residential development. As the size of the coastal population increases, so has the number of requests for dock permits. With each new request for a dock permit, public concerns about the cumulative environmental impacts of dock proliferation on the coastal environment have increased. The objective of this particular study was to evaluate the impacts of shading by dock structures on stem densities of S. alterniflora in South Carolina coastal marshes. Shading impacts under individual docks were extrapolated to the tidal creek (local), county, and statewide scales. Dock structures were sampled both under and next to the walkway in the Charleston Harbor area of South Carolina. The density of S. alterniflora under docks was significantly lower than that which occurred next to the docks (i.e., 5 m away) for the short-form, tall-form, and both forms combined. We estimated that shading effects from dock structures in South Carolina decreased the stem density of S. alterniflora by 71%. Dock shading effects were small when evaluated from the perspective of the amount of marsh that occurs within specific tidal creeks (0.03-0.72%), in coastal counties at a maximum dock length (0.01-0.98%), or statewide (0.01-0.13%) at a maximum dock length. However, approximately 7,000 docks have been permitted over the last decade, resulting in a loss of salt marsh equivalent to 60 ha.

  15. The Cumulative Impact of Nonsevere Life Events Predicts Depression Recurrence during Maintenance Treatment with Interpersonal Psychotherapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenze, Shannon N.; Cyranowski, Jill M.; Thompson, Wesley K.; Anderson, Barbara; Frank, Ellen

    2008-01-01

    Although much research has focused on the role of severe life events as risk factors for depression onset, less is known about the relationship between nonsevere life events and depression recurrence. The current study examined the cumulative effects of nonsevere and positive life events on depression recurrence in an outpatient sample of…

  16. Indirect Effects and Potential Cumulative Impacts of Dredging in an Urbanized Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sommerfield, C. K.; Chen, J.; Ralston, D. K.; Geyer, W. R.

    2016-02-01

    For over two centuries, the Delaware River and Bay estuary has supported one of the most economically important ports in the United States. To accommodate ships of ever-increasing size, the 165-km axial shipping channel has been deepened to over twice the natural depth of the estuary. While it is known that the channel has modified tides and sedimentation patterns in the estuary, unknown are the impacts on the ecosystem as a whole. A concern is the influence of channelization on sediment movement to the tidal wetland coast, which is eroding at rates on the order of meters per year. Tidal wetlands frame the entire estuary and provide vital ecosystem services ranging from recreation to carbon sequestration. To identify shifts in baseline conditions, we are performing a retrospective analysis of estuarine dynamics using historical bathymetry, numerical modeling, and observational studies. The period of interest extends from 1848 (50 years prior to channel construction) to present. During this period the channel was progressively deepened from its natural depth of 5.5 m to the current depth of 14 m. Preliminary modeling results support independent evidence that the salt intrusion and zone of rapid sediment deposition migrated several 10s of kilometers up-estuary as an indirect effect of deepening. Ironically, the locus of intense deposition now falls squarely within the Wilmington-Philadelphia port complex; river sediment that initially settles in this area is removed by maintenance dredging before it can disperse seaward. Sediment budgetary analysis indicates that the mass of sediment dredged from the upper estuary on average exceeds the mass of the new sediment supplied from the drainage basin. Hence, a probable cumulative impact of dredging is a reduction in sediment delivery to the lower estuary and fringing wetlands. Connections among the shipping channel, wave-tide interactions, and marsh edge erosion are a topic of ongoing modeling and observational research.

  17. Evaluating Cumulative OP Pesticide Body Burden of Children: A National Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Payne-Sturges, Devon; Cohen, Jonathan; Castorina, Rosemary; Axelrad, Daniel A.; Woodruff, Tracey J.

    2009-01-01

    Biomonitoring is a valuable tool for identifying exposures to chemicals that pose potential harm to human health. However, to date there has been little published on ways to evaluate the relative public health significance of biomonitoring data for different chemicals, and even less on cumulative assessment of multiple chemicals. The objectives of our study are to develop a methodology for a health risk interpretation of biomonitoring data, and to apply it using NHANES 1999–2002 body burden data for organophosphorus (OP) pesticides. OP pesticides present a particularly challenging case given the non-specificity of many metabolites monitored through NHANES. We back-calculate OP pesticide exposures from urinary metabolite data, and compare cumulative dose estimates with available toxicity information for a common mechanism of action (brain cholinesterase inhibition) using data from U.S. EPA. Our results suggest that approximately 40% of children in the United States may have had insufficient margins of exposure (MOEs) for neurological impacts from cumulative exposures to OP pesticides (MOE less than 1,000). Limitations include uncertainty related to assumptions about likely precursor pesticide compounds of the urinary metabolites, sources of exposure, and intra-individual and temporal variability. PMID:19921915

  18. Cumulative biophysical impact of small and large hydropower development in Nu River, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kibler, Kelly M.; Tullos, Desiree D.

    2013-06-01

    Support for low-carbon energy and opposition to new large dams encourages global development of small hydropower facilities. This support is manifested in national and international energy and development policies designed to incentivize growth in the small hydropower sector while curtailing large dam construction. However, the preference of small to large dams assumes, without justification, that small hydropower dams entail fewer and less severe environmental and social externalities than large hydropower dams. With the objective to evaluate the validity of this assumption, we investigate cumulative biophysical effects of small (<50 MW) and large hydropower dams in China's Nu River basin, and compare effects normalized per megawatt of power produced. Results reveal that biophysical impacts of small hydropower may exceed those of large hydropower, particularly with regard to habitat and hydrologic change. These results indicate that more comprehensive standards for impact assessment and governance of small hydropower projects may be necessary to encourage low-impact energy development.

  19. The Caspar Creek watersheds: a case study of cumulative effects in a small coastal basin in northern California

    Treesearch

    R. R. Ziemer; P. H. Cafferata

    1991-01-01

    Abstract - Since 1962, the 483-ha North Fork and 424-ha South Fork of Caspar Creek in northwestern California have been used to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of road building and harvesting second-growth redwood/Douglas-fir forests. Three tributaries are serving as untreated controls. In 1985, the study was modified to evaluate the cumulative watershed effects of...

  20. Multiscale impacts of armoring on Salish Sea shorelines: Evidence for cumulative and threshold effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dethier, Megan N.; Raymond, Wendel W.; McBride, Aundrea N.; Toft, Jason D.; Cordell, Jeffery R.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Heerhartz, Sarah M.; Berry, Helen D.

    2016-06-01

    Shoreline armoring is widespread in many parts of the protected inland waters of the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A, but impacts on physical and biological features of local nearshore ecosystems have only recently begun to be documented. Armoring marine shorelines can alter natural processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales; some, such as starving the beach of sediments by blocking input from upland bluffs may take decades to become visible, while others such as placement loss of armoring construction are immediate. We quantified a range of geomorphic and biological parameters at paired, nearby armored and unarmored beaches throughout the inland waters of Washington State to test what conditions and parameters are associated with armoring. We gathered identical datasets at a total of 65 pairs of beaches: 6 in South Puget Sound, 23 in Central Puget Sound, and 36 pairs North of Puget Sound proper. At this broad scale, demonstrating differences attributable to armoring is challenging given the high natural variability in measured parameters among beaches and regions. However, we found that armoring was consistently associated with reductions in beach width, riparian vegetation, numbers of accumulated logs, and amounts and types of beach wrack and associated invertebrates. Armoring-related patterns at lower beach elevations (further vertically from armoring) were progressively harder to detect. For some parameters, such as accumulated logs, there was a distinct threshold in armoring elevation that was associated with increased impacts. This large dataset for the first time allowed us to identify cumulative impacts that appear when increasing proportions of shorelines are armored. At large spatial and temporal scales, armoring much of a sediment drift cell may result in reduction of the finer grain-size fractions on beaches, including those used by spawning forage fish. Overall we have shown that local impacts of shoreline armoring can scale-up to have cumulative and

  1. The impact of physical activity on cumulative cardiovascular disease risk factors among Malaysian adults.

    PubMed

    Rasiah, Rajah; Thangiah, Govindamal; Yusoff, Khalid; Manikam, Rishya; Chandrasekaran, Sankara Kumar; Mustafa, Rujhan; Bakar, Najmin Binti Abu

    2015-12-16

    Numerous studies have shown the importance of physical activity in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of these studies emphasise little on the cumulative effect of CVD risk factors. Hence, this study investigates the association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors among adults in three different age groups. Using a sample of 7276 respondents drawn from community centers, the REDISCOVER team gathered information on physical activity, CVD risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco use) and socioeconomic and demographic variables in Malaysia. Because the study required medical examination, a convenience sampling frame was preferred in which all volunteers were included in the study. Fasting blood samples and anthropometric (height, weight and more) measurements were collected by trained staffs. Socio-demographic and physical activity variables were recorded through questionnaires. A Chi-square test was performed to identify the bivariate association between the covariates (socioeconomic variables, demographic variables and physical activity) and outcome variable. The association between the main exposure, physical activity, and the outcome variable, cumulative CVD risk factors, was assessed using an ordinal logistic regression model, controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic influences in three different age groups, 35-49, 50-64 and 65 and above. The mean age of participants is 51.8 (SD = 9.4). Respondents in the age groups of 35-49 (aORmoderate = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02 - 0.53 ) and 65 and above (aORhigh = 0.58; 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.78) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between physical activity and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, this relationship was not significant among respondents in the 50-64 age group suggesting the possible influence of other variables, such as stress and environment. The

  2. Effects of Reactive Expectation and Cumulative Charting on Self-Monitoring Study Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atkinson, Donald R.; And Others

    Subjects were 46 undergraduates attending a major West Coast university who self-monitored their study behavior for four weeks under one of four conditions: (1) expectation of reactivity; (2) cumulative charting, (3) combined expectation and charting; and (4) control group (given no expectation or cumulative chart). Although definitive conclusions…

  3. Cumulative biological impacts framework for solar energy projects in the California Desert

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Frank W.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Soong, Oliver; Stoms, David M.; Dashiell, Stephanie; Hannah, Lee; Wilkinson, Whitney; Dingman, John

    2013-01-01

    This project developed analytical approaches, tools and geospatial data to support conservation planning for renewable energy development in the California deserts. Research focused on geographical analysis to avoid, minimize and mitigate the cumulative biological effects of utility-scale solar energy development. A hierarchical logic model was created to map the compatibility of new solar energy projects with current biological conservation values. The research indicated that the extent of compatible areas is much greater than the estimated land area required to achieve 2040 greenhouse gas reduction goals. Species distribution models were produced for 65 animal and plant species that were of potential conservation significance to the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan process. These models mapped historical and projected future habitat suitability using 270 meter resolution climate grids. The results were integrated into analytical frameworks to locate potential sites for offsetting project impacts and evaluating the cumulative effects of multiple solar energy projects. Examples applying these frameworks in the Western Mojave Desert ecoregion show the potential of these publicly-available tools to assist regional planning efforts. Results also highlight the necessity to explicitly consider projected land use change and climate change when prioritizing areas for conservation and mitigation offsets. Project data, software and model results are all available online.

  4. Impact on Medical Cost, Cumulative Survival, and Cost-Effectiveness of Adding Rituximab to First-Line Chemotherapy for Follicular Lymphoma in Elderly Patients: An Observational Cohort Study Based on SEER-Medicare

    PubMed Central

    Griffiths, Robert I.; Gleeson, Michelle L.; Mikhael, Joseph; Danese, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Rituximab improves survival in follicular lymphoma (FL), but is considerably more expensive than conventional chemotherapy. We estimated the total direct medical costs, cumulative survival, and cost-effectiveness of adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy for FL, based on a single source of data representing routine practice in the elderly. Using surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) registry data plus Medicare claims, we identified 1,117 FL patients who received first-line CHOP (cyclophosphamide (C), doxorubicin, vincristine (V), and prednisone (P)) or CVP +/− rituximab. Multivariate regression was used to estimate adjusted cumulative cost and survival differences between the two groups over four years after beginning treatment. The median age was 73 years (minimum 66 years), 56% had stage III-IV disease, and 67% received rituximab. Adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy was associated with higher adjusted incremental total cost ($18,695; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) $9,302–$28,643) and longer adjusted cumulative survival (0.18 years; 95% CI 0.10–0.27) over four years of followup. The expected cost-effectiveness was $102,142 (95% CI $34,531–296,337) per life-year gained. In routine clinical practice, adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy for elderly patients with FL results in higher direct medical costs to Medicare and longer cumulative survival after four years. PMID:22969803

  5. The cumulative impact of annual coral bleaching can turn some coral species winners into losers.

    PubMed

    Grottoli, Andréa G; Warner, Mark E; Levas, Stephen J; Aschaffenburg, Matthew D; Schoepf, Verena; McGinley, Michael; Baumann, Justin; Matsui, Yohei

    2014-12-01

    Mass coral bleaching events caused by elevated seawater temperatures result in extensive coral loss throughout the tropics, and are projected to increase in frequency and severity. If bleaching becomes an annual event later in this century, more than 90% of coral reefs worldwide may be at risk of long-term degradation. While corals can recover from single isolated bleaching and can acclimate to recurring bleaching events that are separated by multiple years, it is currently unknown if and how they will survive and possibly acclimatize to annual coral bleaching. Here, we demonstrate for the first time that annual coral bleaching can dramatically alter thermal tolerance in Caribbean corals. We found that high coral energy reserves and changes in the dominant algal endosymbiont type (Symbiodinium spp.) facilitated rapid acclimation in Porites divaricata, whereas low energy reserves and a lack of algal phenotypic plasticity significantly increased susceptibility in Porites astreoides to bleaching the following year. Phenotypic plasticity in the dominant endosymbiont type of Orbicella faveolata did not prevent repeat bleaching, but may have facilitated rapid recovery. Thus, coral holobiont response to an isolated single bleaching event is not an accurate predictor of its response to bleaching the following year. Rather, the cumulative impact of annual coral bleaching can turn some coral species 'winners' into 'losers', and can also facilitate acclimation and turn some coral species 'losers' into 'winners'. Overall, these findings indicate that cumulative impact of annual coral bleaching could result in some species becoming increasingly susceptible to bleaching and face a long-term decline, while phenotypically plastic coral species will acclimatize and persist. Thus, annual coral bleaching and recovery could contribute to the selective loss of coral diversity as well as the overall decline of coral reefs in the Caribbean. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Cumulative versus end-of-course assessment: effects on self-study time and test performance.

    PubMed

    Kerdijk, Wouter; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke; Mulder, B Florentine; Muntinghe, Friso L H; Tio, René A

    2015-07-01

    Students tend to postpone preparation for a test until the test is imminent, which raises various risks associated with 'cramming' behaviours, including that for suboptimal learning. Cumulative assessment utilises spaced testing to stimulate students to study more frequently and to prevent procrastination. This randomised controlled study investigated how cumulative assessment affects time spent on self-study and test performance compared with end-of-course assessment. A total of 78 undergraduate medical students in a Year 2 pre-clinical course were randomly assigned to either of two conditions. Students in the cumulative assessment condition were assessed in weeks 4, 8 and 10. Students in the end-of-course assessment condition were assessed in week 10 only. Each week, students reported the number of hours they spent on self-study. Students in the cumulative assessment condition (n = 25) spent significantly more time on self-study than students in the end-of-course assessment condition (n = 37) in all weeks of the course except weeks 5, 9 and 10. Overall, the cumulative assessment group spent 69 hours more on self-study during the course than did the control group, although the control group spent 7 hours more in studying during the final week of the course than did the cumulative assessment group. Students in the cumulative assessment condition scored slightly higher on questions concerning the content of the last part of the course. Cumulative assessment encourages students to distribute their learning activities over a course, which leaves them more opportunity to study the content of the last part of the course prior to the final examination. There was no evidence for a short-term effect of cumulative assessment on overall knowledge gain. We hypothesise that larger positive effects might be found if retention were to be measured in the long term. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Valued ecosystem components for watershed cumulative effects: an analysis of environmental impact assessments in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ball, Murray A; Noble, Bram F; Dubé, Monique G

    2013-07-01

    The accumulating effects of human development are threatening water quality and availability. In recognition of the constraints to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) under traditional environmental impact assessment (EIA), there is an emerging body of research dedicated to watershed-based cumulative effects assessment (WCEA). To advance the science of WCEA, however, a standard set of ecosystem components and indicators is required that can be used at the watershed scale, to inform effects-based understanding of cumulative change, and at the project scale, to inform regulatory-based project based impact assessment and mitigation. A major challenge, however, is that it is not clear how such ecosystem components and indicators for WCEA can or should be developed. This study examined the use of aquatic ecosystem components and indicators in EIA practice in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada, to determine whether current practice at the project scale could be "scaled up" to support ecosystem component and indicator development for WCEA. The hierarchy of assessment components and indicators used in a sample of 35 environmental impact assessments was examined and the factors affecting aquatic ecosystem component selection and indicator use were identified. Results showed that public environmental impact statements are not necessarily publically accessible, thus limiting opportunities for data and information sharing from the project to the watershed scale. We also found no consistent terminology across the sample of impact statements, thus making comparison of assessment processes and results difficult. Regulatory compliance was found to be the dominant factor influencing the selection of ecosystem components and indicators for use in project assessment, rather than scientific reasoning, followed by the mandate of the responsible government agency for the assessment, public input to the assessment process, and preexisting water licensing arrangements external

  8. Cumulative Lead Exposure and Age-related Hearing Loss: The VA Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Park, Sung Kyun; Elmarsafawy, Sahar; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Spiro, Avron; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Nie, Huiling; Weisskopf, Marc G.; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard

    2010-01-01

    Although lead has been associated with hearing loss in occupational settings and in children, little epidemiologic research has been conducted on the impact of cumulative lead exposure on age-related hearing loss in the general population. We determined whether bone lead levels, a marker of cumulative lead exposure, are associated with decreased hearing ability in 448 men from the Normative Aging Study, seen between 1962 and 1996 (2,264 total observations). Air conduction hearing thresholds were measured at 0.25 to 8 kHz and pure tone averages (PTA) (mean of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz) were computed. Tibia and patella lead levels were measured using K x-ray fluorescence between 1991 and 1996. In cross-sectional analyses, after adjusting for potential confounders including occupational noise, patella lead levels were significantly associated with poorer hearing thresholds at 2, 3, 4, 6 and 8 kHz and PTA. The odds of hearing loss significantly increased with patella lead levels. We also found significant positive associations between tibia lead and the rate change in hearing thresholds at 1, 2, and 8 kHz and PTA in longitudinal analyses. Our results suggest that chronic low-level lead exposure may be an important risk factor for age-related hearing loss and reduction of lead exposure could help prevent or delay development of age-related hearing loss. PMID:20638461

  9. The nature of cumulative impacts on biotic diversity of wetland vertebrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Larry D.

    1988-09-01

    There is no longer any doubt that cumulative impacts have important effects on wetland vertebrates. Interactions of species diversity and community structure produce a complex pattern in which environmental impacts can play a highly significant role. Various examples show how wetlands maintain the biotic diversity within and among vertebrate populations, and some of the ways that environmental perturbations can interact to reduce this diversity. The trophic and habitat pyramids are useful organizing concepts. Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects at all levels, reducing the usable range of the larger habitat generalists while threatening the genetic integrity of small, isolated populations. The complexity of trophic interactions, and the propensity, or necessity, of vertebrates to switch from one food source to another—something we know little about—makes using food chain support as a variable for predicting environmental impacts very questionable. Historical instances illustrate the effects of the accumulation of impacts on vertebrates. At present it is nearly impossible to predict the result of three or more different kinds of perturbations, although long-range effects can be observed. One case in point is waterfowl; while their ingestion of lead shot, harvesting by hunters during migration, and loss of habitat have caused waterfowl populations to decline, the proportional responsibility of these factors has not been determined. Further examples show multiplicative effects of similar actions, effects with long time lags, diffuse processes in the landscape that may have concentrated effects on a component subsystem, and a variety of other interactions of increasing complexity. Not only is more information needed at all levels; impacts must be assessed on a landscape or regional scale to produce informed management decisions. I conclude that a system of replicate wetland reserves that are allowed to interact naturally with the surrounding landscape will

  10. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods.

  11. THEORETICAL TECHNIQUE FOR DETERMINING THE CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF IRON AND MANGANESE OXIDATION IN STREAMS RECEIVING COAL-MINE DISCHARGE.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bobay, Keith E.; Banaszak, Konrad J.; ,

    1985-01-01

    Two U. S. Geological Survey computer programs are modified and linked to predict the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in coal-mine discharge on the dissolved-chemical quality of a receiving stream. The coupled programs calculate the changes in dissolved-iron, dissolved-manganese, and dissolved-oxygen concentrations, and the pH of surface water downstream from the discharge. The cumulative impact of representative discharges from several coal mines on stream quality in a small watershed in southwestern Indiana was simulated to determine the effectiveness and sensitivity of the coupled programs.

  12. Novel Method of Weighting Cumulative Helmet Impacts Improves Correlation with Brain White Matter Changes After One Football Season of Sub-concussive Head Blows.

    PubMed

    Merchant-Borna, Kian; Asselin, Patrick; Narayan, Darren; Abar, Beau; Jones, Courtney M C; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

    2016-12-01

    fractional anisotropy (FA) using bivariate and multivariable correlation analyses. The resulting R (2) values were averaged in each of the five summary method groups and compared using one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey post hoc tests for multiple comparisons. Total head hits for the season ranged from 431 to 1850. None of the athletes suffered a clinically evident concussion during the study period. The mean R (2) value for the correlations using cumulative helmet-based impact measures weighted for both TUA and TBH combined (0.51 ± 0.03) was significantly greater than the mean R (2) value for correlations using non-cumulative HIMs (vs. 0.19 ± 0.04, p < 0.0001), unweighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures (vs. 0.27 + 0.03, p < 0.0001), and cumulative helmet-based impact measures weighted for TBH alone (vs. 0.34 ± 0.02, p < 0.001). R (2) values for weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures ranged from 0.32 to 0.77, with 60% of correlations being statistically significant. Cumulative GSI weighted for TBH and TUA explained 77% of the variance in the percent of white matter voxels with statistically significant (PWMVSS) increase in FA from pre-season to post-season, while both cumulative GSI and cumulative HIC15 weighted for TUA accounted for 75% of the variance in PWMVSS decrease in FA. A novel method for weighting cumulative helmet-based impact measures summed over the course of a football season resulted in a marked improvement in the correlation to brain WM changes observed after a single football season of sub-concussive head blows. Our results lend support to the emerging concept that sub-concussive head blows can result in sub-clinical brain injury, and this may be influenced by the time between hits. If confirmed in an independent data set, our novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows could be used to develop threshold-based countermeasures to prevent the accumulation of WM changes with multiple seasons

  13. Cumulative Incidence of Cancer Among Persons With HIV in North America: A Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Silverberg, Michael J; Lau, Bryan; Achenbach, Chad J; Jing, Yuezhou; Althoff, Keri N; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Engels, Eric A; Hessol, Nancy A; Brooks, John T; Burchell, Ann N; Gill, M John; Goedert, James J; Hogg, Robert; Horberg, Michael A; Kirk, Gregory D; Kitahata, Mari M; Korthuis, Philip T; Mathews, William C; Mayor, Angel; Modur, Sharada P; Napravnik, Sonia; Novak, Richard M; Patel, Pragna; Rachlis, Anita R; Sterling, Timothy R; Willig, James H; Justice, Amy C; Moore, Richard D; Dubrow, Robert

    2015-10-06

    Cancer is increasingly common among persons with HIV. To examine calendar trends in cumulative cancer incidence and hazard rate by HIV status. Cohort study. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design during 1996 to 2009. 86 620 persons with HIV and 196 987 uninfected adults. Cancer type-specific cumulative incidence by age 75 years and calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rates, each by HIV status. Cumulative incidences of cancer by age 75 years for persons with and without HIV, respectively, were as follows: Kaposi sarcoma, 4.4% and 0.01%; non-Hodgkin lymphoma, 4.5% and 0.7%; lung cancer, 3.4% and 2.8%; anal cancer, 1.5% and 0.05%; colorectal cancer, 1.0% and 1.5%; liver cancer, 1.1% and 0.4%; Hodgkin lymphoma, 0.9% and 0.09%; melanoma, 0.5% and 0.6%; and oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer, 0.8% and 0.8%. Among persons with HIV, calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rate decreased for Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. For anal, colorectal, and liver cancer, increasing cumulative incidence, but not hazard rate trends, were due to the decreasing mortality rate trend (-9% per year), allowing greater opportunity to be diagnosed. Despite decreasing hazard rate trends for lung cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and melanoma, cumulative incidence trends were not seen because of the compensating effect of the declining mortality rate. Secular trends in screening, smoking, and viral co-infections were not evaluated. Cumulative cancer incidence by age 75 years, approximating lifetime risk in persons with HIV, may have clinical utility in this population. The high cumulative incidences by age 75 years for Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and lung cancer support early and sustained antiretroviral therapy and smoking cessation.

  14. Assessment and Quantification of Cumulative Impacts of Training and Land Management Practices on Military Installations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-19

    environmental integrity of the training area. A terrain-vehicle impact model was used to predict terrain impacts (disturbed width and impact...impacts severity were determined using theoretical models generated by Li et al. (2007). Soil cohesion and friction angle were measured on-site with...providing support for this study. References 1. Ayers, P. M. Rice, Q. Li, H. Howard, and A. Anderson. 2007. Modeling military vehicle terrain

  15. Increased Cumulative Incidence of Dermatomyositis in Ulcerative Colitis: a Nationwide Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Tseng, Chia-Chun; Chang, Shun-Jen; Liao, Wei-Ting; Chan, Ya-Ting; Tsai, Wen-Chan; Ou, Tsan-Teng; Wu, Cheng-Chin; Sung, Wan-Yu; Hsieh, Ming-Chia; Yen, Jeng-Hsien

    2016-01-01

    On a molecular level, two autoimmune diseases: ulcerative colitis (UC) and dermatomyositis share common genetic determinants. On a clinical level, case reports evidenced the co-occurrence of these two diseases. We therefore hypothesize that UC is potentially associated with increased cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis. The goals of this retrospective cohort study were to evaluate whether UC is associated with increased cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis independent of sex and age. For comparison, we also assessed the cumulative incidence of polymyositis in UC and control subjects. The study enrolled 3,133 UC subjects and 14,726 control subjects. The cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis was significantly higher in UC than that of control subjects (p = 0.026), but the cumulative incidence of polymyositis was comparable between UC and control subjects (p = 0.596). UC was independently associated with the increased incident dermatomyositis (hazard ratio: 6.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.77–21.59, p = 0.004) after adjusting for sex, age, and concomitant rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and systemic sclerosis. Similar trends of increased dermatomyositis in UC were observed when patients were stratified based on sex and age. In conclusion, our findings suggest that UC is probably associated with increased cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis, independent of sex, age, and concomitant autoimmune diseases. PMID:27325143

  16. Utilizing geographic information systems technology in the Wyoming cumulative hydrologic impact assessment modeling process

    SciTech Connect

    Hamerlinck, J.D.; Oakleaf, J.R.

    1997-12-31

    The coal-permitting process places heavy demands on both permit applicants and regulatory authorities with respect to the management and analysis of hydrologic data. Currently, this correlation is being addressed for the Powder River Basin, Wyoming by the ongoing Cumulative Hydrologic Impact Assessment (CHIA) efforts at the University of Wyoming. One critical component of the CHIA is the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) for support, management, manipulation, pre-analysis, and display of data associated with the chosen groundwater and surface water models. This paper will discuss the methodology in using of GIS technology as an integrated tool with the MODFLOW and HEC-1 hydrologic models. Pre-existing GIS links associated with these two models served as a foundation for this effort. However, due to established standards and site specific factors, substantial modifications were performed on existing tools to obtain adequate results. The groundwater-modeling effort required the use of a refined grid in which cell sizes varied based on the relative locations of ongoing mining activities. Surface water modeling was performed in a semi-arid region with very limited topographic relief and predominantly ephemeral stream channels. These were substantial issues that presented challenges for effective GIS/model integration.

  17. Cumulative ecological impacts of two successive annual treatments of imidacloprid and fipronil on aquatic communities of paddy mesocosms.

    PubMed

    Hayasaka, D; Korenaga, T; Suzuki, K; Saito, F; Sánchez-Bayo, F; Goka, K

    2012-06-01

    Agricultural landscapes, including paddies, play an important role in maintaining biodiversity, but this biodiversity has been under the threat of toxic agro-chemicals. Our knowledge about how aquatic communities react to, and recover from, pesticides, particularly in relation to their residues, is deficient, despite the importance of such information for realistic environmental impact assessment of pesticides. The cumulative ecological impacts on aquatic paddy communities and their recovery processes after two successive annual applications of two systemic insecticides, imidacloprid and fipronil, were monitored between mid-May and mid-September each year. The abundance of benthic organisms during both years was significantly lower in both insecticide-treated fields than in the controls. Large-impacts of fipronil on aquatic arthropods were found after the two years. Growth of medaka fish, both adults and their juveniles, was affected by the application of the two insecticides. A Principal Response Curve analysis (PRC) showed the escalation and prolongation of changes in aquatic community composition by the successive annual treatments of each insecticide over two years. Residues of fipronil in soil, which are more persistent than those of imidacloprid, had a high level of impact on aquatic communities over time. For some taxonomic groups, particularly for water surface-dwelling and water-borne arthropods, the second annual treatment had far greater impacts than the initial treatment, indicating that impacts of these insecticides under normal use patterns cannot be accurately assessed during short-term monitoring studies, i.e., lasting less than one year. It is concluded that realistic prediction and assessment of pesticide effects at the community level should also include the long-term ecological risks of their residues whenever these persist in paddies over a year.

  18. Epigenome: A Biomarker or Screening Tool to Evaluate Health Impact of Cumulative Exposure to Chemical and Non-Chemical Stressors

    PubMed Central

    Olden, Kenneth; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Bussard, David

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment practices and toxicity information are hard to utilize for assessing the health impact of combined or cumulative exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors encountered in the “real world” environment. Non-chemical stressors such as heat, radiation, noise, humidity, bacterial and viral agents, and social factors, like stress related to violence and socioeconomic position generally cannot be currently incorporated into the risk assessment paradigm. The Science and Decisions report released by the National Research Council (NRC) in 2009 emphasized the need to characterize the effects of multiple stressors, both chemical and non-chemical exposures. One impediment to developing information relating such non-chemical stressors to health effects and incorporating them into cumulative assessment has been the lack of analytical tools to easily and quantitatively monitor the cumulative exposure to combined effects of stressors over the life course.

  19. The cumulative impacts of reclamation and dredging on the marine ecology and land-use in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

    PubMed

    Zainal, Khadija; Al-Madany, Ismail; Al-Sayed, Hashim; Khamis, Abdelqader; Al Shuhaby, Suhad; Al Hisaby, Ali; Elhoussiny, Wisam; Khalaf, Ebtisam

    2012-07-01

    This article assesses the ecological and economic impacts of land reclamation and dredging through consulting recent environmental impact assessment reports. Geographic features of Bahrain during 1963-2008 are produced using Geographical Information System. Extensive but inexpensive shallow coastal areas and tidal flats have been reclaimed particularly from 1997 to 2007 at a high rate of 21 km(2)/year. Formal records show the increase in the original land mass by the year 2008 to be 91 km(2). An estimated total cumulative loss of major habitats resulting from 10 reclamation projects was around 153.58 km(2). Also much larger scale impacts should be considered resulting from the borrow areas used for the extraction of sand or infill materials. A number of key habitats and species are affected in the vicinity of these projects. The study attempts to assign a monetary value to the marine ecosystem functions. There is a need for efficient coastal zone management to regulate a sustainable use of the marine resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Cumulative impacts on seabed habitats: an indicator for assessments of good environmental status.

    PubMed

    Korpinen, Samuli; Meidinger, Manuel; Laamanen, Maria

    2013-09-15

    The European seas are under anthropogenic pressures impacting the state of water quality, benthic habitats and species. The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires the Member States to assess the impacts of pressures and make a programme of measures leading to good environmental status (GES) by 2020. This study presents a method for assessing the quantity and distribution of anthropogenic impacts on benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea by using spatial data of human pressures and benthic habitats. The southern sub-basins were more extensively impacted than the northern sub-basins. Over the entire sea area, deep sea habitats were more impacted than shallower infralittoral and circalittoral habitats. Sand and coarse sediments were the seabed types relatively most impacted in the Baltic Sea scale. A comparison against tentative thresholds for GES showed that in the sub-basin scale only one third of the habitat types was in GES. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Cumulative risk assessment lessons learned: a review of case studies and issue papers.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Sarah S; Rice, Glenn E; Scarano, Louis J; Teuschler, Linda K; Bollweg, George; Martin, Lawrence

    2015-02-01

    Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) examine potential risks posed by exposure to multiple and sometimes disparate environmental stressors. CRAs are more resource intensive than single chemical assessments, and pose additional challenges and sources of uncertainty. CRAs may examine the impact of several factors on risk, including exposure magnitude and timing, chemical mixture composition, as well as physical, biological, or psychosocial stressors. CRAs are meant to increase the relevance of risk assessments, providing decision makers with information based on real world exposure scenarios that improve the characterization of actual risks and hazards. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has evaluated a number of CRAs, performed by or commissioned for the Agency, to seek insight into CRA concepts, methods, and lessons learned. In this article, ten case studies and five issue papers on key CRA topics are examined and a set of lessons learned are identified for CRA implementation. The lessons address the iterative nature of CRAs, importance of considering vulnerability, need for stakeholder engagement, value of a tiered approach, new methods to assess multiroute exposures to chemical mixtures, and the impact of geographical scale on approach and purpose.

  2. Using Marginal Structural Modeling to Estimate the Cumulative Impact of an Unconditional Tax Credit on Self-Rated Health.

    PubMed

    Pega, Frank; Blakely, Tony; Glymour, M Maria; Carter, Kristie N; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2016-02-15

    In previous studies, researchers estimated short-term relationships between financial credits and health outcomes using conventional regression analyses, but they did not account for time-varying confounders affected by prior treatment (CAPTs) or the credits' cumulative impacts over time. In this study, we examined the association between total number of years of receiving New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) and self-rated health (SRH) in 6,900 working-age parents using 7 waves of New Zealand longitudinal data (2002-2009). We conducted conventional linear regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for time-invariant and time-varying confounders measured at baseline, and fitted marginal structural models (MSMs) that more fully adjusted for confounders, including CAPTs. Of all participants, 5.1%-6.8% received the FTC for 1-3 years and 1.8%-3.6% for 4-7 years. In unadjusted and adjusted conventional regression analyses, each additional year of receiving the FTC was associated with 0.033 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.047, -0.019) and 0.026 (95% CI: -0.041, -0.010) units worse SRH (on a 5-unit scale). In the MSMs, the average causal treatment effect also reflected a small decrease in SRH (unstabilized weights: β = -0.039 unit, 95% CI: -0.058, -0.020; stabilized weights: β = -0.031 unit, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.007). Cumulatively receiving the FTC marginally reduced SRH. Conventional regression analyses and MSMs produced similar estimates, suggesting little bias from CAPTs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Cumulants, free cumulants and half-shuffles

    PubMed Central

    Ebrahimi-Fard, Kurusch; Patras, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Free cumulants were introduced as the proper analogue of classical cumulants in the theory of free probability. There is a mix of similarities and differences, when one considers the two families of cumulants. Whereas the combinatorics of classical cumulants is well expressed in terms of set partitions, that of free cumulants is described and often introduced in terms of non-crossing set partitions. The formal series approach to classical and free cumulants also largely differs. The purpose of this study is to put forward a different approach to these phenomena. Namely, we show that cumulants, whether classical or free, can be understood in terms of the algebra and combinatorics underlying commutative as well as non-commutative (half-)shuffles and (half-) unshuffles. As a corollary, cumulants and free cumulants can be characterized through linear fixed point equations. We study the exponential solutions of these linear fixed point equations, which display well the commutative, respectively non-commutative, character of classical and free cumulants. PMID:27547078

  4. Cumulants, free cumulants and half-shuffles.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi-Fard, Kurusch; Patras, Frédéric

    2015-04-08

    Free cumulants were introduced as the proper analogue of classical cumulants in the theory of free probability. There is a mix of similarities and differences, when one considers the two families of cumulants. Whereas the combinatorics of classical cumulants is well expressed in terms of set partitions, that of free cumulants is described and often introduced in terms of non-crossing set partitions. The formal series approach to classical and free cumulants also largely differs. The purpose of this study is to put forward a different approach to these phenomena. Namely, we show that cumulants, whether classical or free, can be understood in terms of the algebra and combinatorics underlying commutative as well as non-commutative (half-)shuffles and (half-) unshuffles. As a corollary, cumulants and free cumulants can be characterized through linear fixed point equations. We study the exponential solutions of these linear fixed point equations, which display well the commutative, respectively non-commutative, character of classical and free cumulants.

  5. A conceptual framework for assessing cumulative impacts on the hydrology of nontidal wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winter, T.C.

    1988-01-01

    Wetlands occur in geologic and hydrologic settings that enhance the accumulation or retention of water. Regional slope, local relief, and permeability of the land surface are major controls on the formation of wetlands by surface-water sources. However, these landscape features also have significant control over groundwater flow systems, which commonly play a role in the formation of wetlands. Because the hydrologic system is a continuum, any modification of one component will have an effect on contiguous components. Disturbances commonly affecting the hydrologic system as it relates to wetlands include weather modification, alteration of plant communities, storage of surface water, road construction, drainage of surface water and soil water, alteration of groundwater recharge and discharge areas, and pumping of groundwater. Assessments of the cumulative effects of one or more of these disturbances on the hydrologic system as related to wetlands must take into account uncertainty in the measurements and in the assumptions that are made in hydrologic studies. For example, it may be appropriate to assume that regional groundwater flow systems are recharged in uplands and discharged in lowlands. However, a similar assumption commonly does not apply on a local scale, because of the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. Lack of appreciation of such hydrologic factors can lead to misunderstanding of the hydrologic function of wetlands within various parts of the landscape and mismanagement of wetland ecosystems. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  6. Reduction of CMIP5 models bias using Cumulative Distribution Function transform and impact on crops yields simulations across West Africa.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moise Famien, Adjoua; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Janicot, Serge; Vrac, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    Different CMIP exercises show that the simulations of the future/current temperature and precipitation are complex with a high uncertainty degree. For example, the African monsoon system is not correctly simulated and most of the CMIP5 models underestimate the precipitation. Therefore, Global Climate Models (GCMs) show significant systematic biases that require bias correction before it can be used in impacts studies. Several methods of bias corrections have been developed for several years and are increasingly using more complex statistical methods. The aims of this work is to show the interest of the CDFt (Cumulative Distribution Function transfom (Michelangeli et al.,2009)) method to reduce the data bias from 29 CMIP5 GCMs over Africa and to assess the impact of bias corrected data on crop yields prediction by the end of the 21st century. In this work, we apply the CDFt to daily data covering the period from 1950 to 2099 (Historical and RCP8.5) and we correct the climate variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind) by the use of the new daily database from the EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) available from 1979 to 2013 as reference data. The performance of the method is assessed in several cases. First, data are corrected based on different calibrations periods and are compared, on one hand, with observations to estimate the sensitivity of the method to the calibration period and, on other hand, with another bias-correction method used in the ISIMIP project. We find that, whatever the calibration period used, CDFt corrects well the mean state of variables and preserves their trend, as well as daily rainfall occurrence and intensity distributions. However, some differences appear when compared to the outputs obtained with the method used in ISIMIP and show that the quality of the correction is strongly related to the reference data. Secondly, we validate the bias correction method with the agronomic simulations (SARRA-H model (Kouressy

  7. A study of cumulative fatigue damage in titanium 6Al-4V alloy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jeelani, S.; Ghebremedhin, S.; Musial, M.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental data were obtained using titanium 6Al-4V alloy under stress ratios of -1, 0, and negative infinity. A study of cumulative fatigue damage using Miner's (1945) and Kramer's (1974) equations for stress ratios of -1 and 0 for low-high, low-high mixed, high-low, and high-low mixed stress sequences has revealed close agreement between the theoretical and experimental values of fatigue damage and fatigue life. Kramer's equation predicts less conservative and more realistic cumulative fatigue damage than does the popularly used Miner's rule.

  8. Identification and Quantification of Cumulative Factors that Increase Environmental Exposures and Impacts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluating the combined adverse effects of multiple stressors upon human health is an imperative component of cumulative risk assessment (CRA)1. In addition to chemical stressors, other non-chemical factors are also considered. For examples, smoking will elevate the risks of havi...

  9. 75 FR 38539 - Notice of Availability of Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement Updating Cumulative...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-02

    ... Analysis for the Newmont Mining Corporation Leeville Project, Nevada AGENCY: Bureau of Land Management... Statement (EIS) to update the cumulative effects analysis for Newmont Mining Corporation's Leeville Project... of Decision (ROD) for Newmont Mining Corporation's Leeville Project, an underground gold mine...

  10. Identification and Quantification of Cumulative Factors that Increase Environmental Exposures and Impacts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluating the combined adverse effects of multiple stressors upon human health is an imperative component of cumulative risk assessment (CRA)1. In addition to chemical stressors, other non-chemical factors are also considered. For examples, smoking will elevate the risks of havi...

  11. Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

  12. Cumulative Advantage in the Skill Development of STEM Graduate Students: A Mixed-Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feldon, David F.; Maher, Michelle A.; Roksa, Josipa; Peugh, James

    2016-01-01

    Studies of skill development often describe a process of cumulative advantage, in which small differences in initial skill compound over time, leading to increasing skill gaps between those with an initial advantage and those without. We offer evidence of a similar phenomenon accounting for differential patterns of research skill development in…

  13. Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

  14. Cumulative Advantage in the Skill Development of STEM Graduate Students: A Mixed-Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feldon, David F.; Maher, Michelle A.; Roksa, Josipa; Peugh, James

    2016-01-01

    Studies of skill development often describe a process of cumulative advantage, in which small differences in initial skill compound over time, leading to increasing skill gaps between those with an initial advantage and those without. We offer evidence of a similar phenomenon accounting for differential patterns of research skill development in…

  15. Cumulative effect in information diffusion: empirical study on a microblogging network.

    PubMed

    Bao, Peng; Shen, Hua-Wei; Chen, Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2013-01-01

    Cumulative effect in social contagion underlies many studies on the spread of innovation, behavior, and influence. However, few large-scale empirical studies are conducted to validate the existence of cumulative effect in information diffusion on social networks. In this paper, using the population-scale dataset from the largest Chinese microblogging website, we conduct a comprehensive study on the cumulative effect in information diffusion. We base our study on the diffusion network of message, where nodes are the involved users and links characterize forwarding relationship among them. We find that multiple exposures to the same message indeed increase the possibility of forwarding it. However, additional exposures cannot further improve the chance of forwarding when the number of exposures crosses its peak at two. This finding questions the cumulative effect hypothesis in information diffusion. Furthermore, to clarify the forwarding preference among users, we investigate both structural motif in the diffusion network and temporal pattern in information diffusion process. Findings provide some insights for understanding the variation of message popularity and explain the characteristics of diffusion network.

  16. Cumulative incidence of childhood autism: a total population study of better accuracy and precision.

    PubMed

    Honda, Hideo; Shimizu, Yasuo; Imai, Miho; Nitto, Yukari

    2005-01-01

    Most studies on the frequency of autism have had methodological problems. Most notable of these have been differences in diagnostic criteria between studies, degree of cases overlooked by the initial screening, and type of measurement. This study aimed to replicate the first report on childhood autism to address cumulative incidence as well as prevalence, as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision (ICD-10) Diagnostic Criteria for Research. Here, the same methodological accuracy (exactness of a measurement to the true value) as the first study was used, but population size was four times larger to achieve greater precision (reduction of random error). A community-oriented system of early detection and early intervention for developmental disorders was established in the northern part of Yokohama, Japan. The city's routine health checkup for 18-month-old children served as the initial mass screening, and all facilities that provided child care services aimed to detect all cases of childhood autism and refer them to the Yokohama Rehabilitation Center. Cumulative incidence up to age 5 years was calculated for childhood autism among a birth cohort from four successive years (1988 to 1991). Cumulative incidence of childhood autism was 27.2 per 10000. Cumulative incidences by sex were 38.4 per 10000 in males, and 15.5 per 10000 in females. The male:female ratio was 2.5:1. The proportions of children with high-functioning autism who had Binet IQs of 70 and over and those with Binet IQs of 85 and over were 25.3% and 13.7% respectively. Data on cumulative incidence of childhood autism derived from this study are the first to be drawn from an accurate, as well as precise, screening methodology.

  17. Modeling community asbestos exposure near a vermiculite processing facility: Impact of human activities on cumulative exposure.

    PubMed

    Adgate, John L; Cho, Sook Ja; Alexander, Bruce H; Ramachandran, Gurmurthy; Raleigh, Katherine K; Johnson, Jean; Messing, Rita B; Williams, A L; Kelly, James; Pratt, Gregory C

    2011-01-01

    Contaminated vermiculite ore from Libby, Montana was processed in northeast Minneapolis from 1936 to 1989 in a densely populated urban residential neighborhood, resulting in non-occupational exposure scenarios from plant stack and fugitive emissions as well as from activity-based scenarios associated with use of the waste rock in the surrounding community. The objective of this analysis was to estimate potential cumulative asbestos exposure for all non-occupationally exposed members of this community. Questionnaire data from a neighborhood-exposure assessment ascertained frequency of potential contact with vermiculite processing waste. Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop exposure estimates based on activity-based concentration estimates and contact durations for four scenarios: S1, moved asbestos-contaminated waste; S2, used waste at home, on lawn or garden; S3, installed/removed vermiculite insulation; S4, played in or around waste piles at the plant. The simulation outputs were combined with air-dispersion model results to provide total cumulative asbestos exposure estimates for the cohort. Fiber emissions from the plant were the largest source of exposure for the majority of the cohort, with geometric mean cumulative exposures of 0.02 fibers/cc × month. The addition of S1, S2 and S3 did not significantly increase total cumulative exposure above background exposure estimates obtained from dispersion modeling. Activity-based exposures were a substantial contributor to the upper end of the exposure distribution: 90th percentile S4 exposure estimates are ∼10 times higher than exposures from plant emissions. Pile playing is the strongest source of asbestos exposure in this cohort, with other activity scenarios contributing less than from plant emissions.

  18. Evaluating cumulative risk assessment for environmental justice: a community case study.

    PubMed Central

    Fox, Mary A

    2002-01-01

    A key feature of cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is the ability to estimate differential health risks from environmental exposures within populations. Identifying populations at increased risk from environmental exposures is the first step toward mitigating such risks as required by the fair treatment mandate of environmental justice. CRA methods remain under development except for a limited application in pesticide regulations. The goals of this research were to advance CRA methods and to test their application in a community case study. We compared cumulative risk and health assessments for South and Southwest Philadelphia communities. The analysis found positive correlations between cumulative risk and mortality measurements for total mortality in Whites and non-Whites when we conducted the risk assessment using a multi-end point toxicological database developed for this project. Cumulative risk scores correlated positively with cause-specific mortality in non-Whites. Statistically significant increases in total and respiratory mortality rates were associated with incremental increases in the hazard ratio cumulative risk scores, with ranges of 2-6% for total and 8-23% for respiratory. Regression analyses controlled for percent non-White population and per capita income, indicating that risk scores represent an environmental effect on health independent of race and income. This case study demonstrated the successful application of CRA at the community level. CRA adds a health dimension to pollutant concentrations to produce a more comprehensive understanding of environmental inequities that can inform decision making. CRA is a viable tool to identify high-risk areas and to guide surveillance, research, or interventions. PMID:11929729

  19. Individual and cumulative impacts of fire emissions and tobacco consumption on wildland firefighters' total exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Marta; Slezakova, Klara; Magalhães, Carlos Pires; Fernandes, Adília; Teixeira, João Paulo; Delerue-Matos, Cristina; do Carmo Pereira, Maria; Morais, Simone

    2017-07-15

    There is limited information about wildland firefighters' exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), being scarce studies that included the impact of tobacco consumption. Thus, this work evaluated the individual and cumulative impacts of firefighting activities and smoking on wildland firefighters' total exposure to PAHs. Six urinary PAH metabolites (1-hydroxynaphthalene (1OHNaph), 1-hydroxyacenaphthene (1OHAce), 2-hydroxyfluorene (2OHFlu), 1-hydroxyphenanthrene (1OHPhen), 1-hydroxypyrene (1OHPy), and 3-hydroxybenzo[a]pyrene (3OHB[a]P)) were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. Firefighters from three fire stations were characterized and organized in three groups: non-smoking and non-exposed to fire emissions (NSNExp), smoking non-exposed (SNExp), and smoking exposed (SExp) individuals. 1OHNaph+1OHAce were the most predominant OH-PAHs (66-91% ∑OH-PAHs), followed by 2OHFlu (2.8-28%), 1OHPhen (1.3-7%), and 1OHPy (1.4-6%). 3OHB[a]P, the carcinogenicity PAH biomarker, was not detected. Regular consumption of tobacco increased 76-412% ∑OH-PAHs. Fire combat activities promoted significant increments of 158-551% ∑OH-PAHs. 2OHFlu was the most affected compound by firefighting activities (111-1068%), while 1OHNaph+1OHAce presented the more pronounced increments due to tobacco consumption (22-339%); 1OHPhen (76-176%) and 1OHPy (20-220%) were the least influenced ones. OH-PAH levels of SExp firefighters were significantly higher than in other groups, suggesting that these subjects may be more vulnerable to develop and/or aggravate diseases related with PAHs exposure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Research and cumulative watershed effects

    Treesearch

    L. M. Reid

    1993-01-01

    The mandate for land managers to address cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) requires that planners evaluate the potential impacts of their activities on multiple beneficial uses within the context of other coexisting activities in a watershed. Types of CWEs vary with the types of land-use activities and their modes of interaction, but published studies illustrate...

  1. Cumulative Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders by Young Adulthood: A Prospective Cohort Analysis From the Great Smoky Mountains Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland, William; Shanahan, Lilly; Costello, E. Jane; Angold, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    Objective: No longitudinal studies beginning in childhood have estimated the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric illness from childhood into young adulthood. The objective of this study was to estimate the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric disorders by young adulthood and to assess how inclusion of not otherwise specified diagnoses affects…

  2. Cumulative Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders by Young Adulthood: A Prospective Cohort Analysis From the Great Smoky Mountains Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland, William; Shanahan, Lilly; Costello, E. Jane; Angold, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    Objective: No longitudinal studies beginning in childhood have estimated the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric illness from childhood into young adulthood. The objective of this study was to estimate the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric disorders by young adulthood and to assess how inclusion of not otherwise specified diagnoses affects…

  3. Is Cumulated Pyrethroid Exposure Associated With Prediabetes? A Cross-sectional Study

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming; Condarco, Guido; Schlünssen, Vivi

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Pyrethroids are a class of insecticides used widely for vector control programs. Acute pyrethroid poisoning is rare, but well documented, whereas effects of cumulative exposure are insufficiently described, including possible negative effect on glucose regulation. The objective of this study was to investigate an association between exposure to pyrethroids and abnormal glucose regulation (prediabetes or diabetes). A cross-sectional study was performed among 116 pesticide sprayers from public vector control programs in Bolivia and 92 nonexposed controls. Pesticide exposure (duration, intensity, cumulative exposure) was assessed from questionnaire data. Participants were asked about symptoms of diabetes. Blood samples were analyzed for glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), a measure of glucose regulation. No association was found between pyrethroid exposure and diabetes symptoms. The prevalence of abnormal glucose regulation (defined as HbA1c ≥ 5.6%) was 61.1% among sprayers and 7.9% among nonexposed controls, corresponding to an adjusted odds ratio (OR [95% confidence interval]) for all sprayers of 11.8 [4.2–33.2] and 18.5 [5.5–62.5] for pyrethroid-exposed only. Among sprayers who had only used pyrethroids, a significant positive trend was observed between cumulative pesticide exposure (total number of hours sprayed) and adjusted OR of abnormal glucose regulation, with OR 14.7 [0.9–235] in the third exposure quintile. The study found a severely increased prevalence of prediabetes among Bolivian pesticide sprayers compared with a control group, but the relevance of the control group is critical. Within the spraying group, an association between cumulative exposure to pyrethroids and abnormal glucose regulation was seen. Further studies are needed to confirm this association. PMID:25275407

  4. Cumulative Damage Studies of Conventional-Cast Composite-Modified Double-Base Propellant.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    This report describes results from a one-year study of cumulative damage mechanisms in conventional-cast, composite-modified, double-base ( CMDB ...propellant. Testing was performed on Hercules’ FKM propellant, which is a typical member of the CMDB propellant family. Test data were correlated to...provide usable design envelopes depicting CMDB propellant damage as a function of the number of loading cycles and the level of loading. Major emphasis in

  5. Cumulative Head Impact Exposure Predicts Later-Life Depression, Apathy, Executive Dysfunction, and Cognitive Impairment in Former High School and College Football Players.

    PubMed

    Montenigro, Philip H; Alosco, Michael L; Martin, Brett M; Daneshvar, Daniel H; Mez, Jesse; Chaisson, Christine E; Nowinski, Christopher J; Au, Rhoda; McKee, Ann C; Cantu, Robert C; McClean, Michael D; Stern, Robert A; Tripodis, Yorghos

    2017-01-15

    The term "repetitive head impacts" (RHI) refers to the cumulative exposure to concussive and subconcussive events. Although RHI are believed to increase risk for later-life neurological consequences (including chronic traumatic encephalopathy), quantitative analysis of this relationship has not yet been examined because of the lack of validated tools to quantify lifetime RHI exposure. The objectives of this study were: 1) to develop a metric to quantify cumulative RHI exposure from football, which we term the "cumulative head impact index" (CHII); 2) to use the CHII to examine the association between RHI exposure and long-term clinical outcomes; and 3) to evaluate its predictive properties relative to other exposure metrics (i.e., duration of play, age of first exposure, concussion history). Participants included 93 former high school and collegiate football players who completed objective cognitive and self-reported behavioral/mood tests as part of a larger ongoing longitudinal study. Using established cutoff scores, we transformed continuous outcomes into dichotomous variables (normal vs. impaired). The CHII was computed for each participant and derived from a combination of self-reported athletic history (i.e., number of seasons, position[s], levels played), and impact frequencies reported in helmet accelerometer studies. A bivariate probit, instrumental variable model revealed a threshold dose-response relationship between the CHII and risk for later-life cognitive impairment (p < 0.0001), self-reported executive dysfunction (p < 0.0001), depression (p < 0.0001), apathy (p = 0.0161), and behavioral dysregulation (p < 0.0001). Ultimately, the CHII demonstrated greater predictive validity than other individual exposure metrics.

  6. Cumulative versus Stabilizing Effects of Methadone Maintenance: A Quasi-Experimental Study Using Longitudinal Self-Report Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powers, Keiko Ichikawa; Anglin, M. Douglas

    1993-01-01

    Whether methadone maintenance treatment demonstrates cumulative (rehabilitative) or stabilizing effects on behavior of narcotics addicts over multiple treatment episodes was studied involving 993 addicts in a quasi-experimental design. Observed behavioral changes and longitudinal self-reports indicate stabilizing, but not cumulative, effects. (SLD)

  7. The population of big Earth approachers from their cumulative distribution and their impact frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galád, Adrián

    2002-11-01

    The total numbers of big Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Earth crossing asteroids (ECAs) are assessed from their cumulative distributions as a function of the absolute magnitude H. More than 1300 and probably even more than 1500 "big" NEAs with H≤18.0 may exist. About half of them belong to big ECAs. The intrinsic collision probability for the Earth Pi is derived from the number of asteroid approaches to the Earth within a distance of 0.1 AU and during a time period of 150 yr. According to the known population of big asteroids Pi is about 43×-18 yr-1km-2 only. The potentially big killers hit the Earth surface probably 3 times per million years, while smaller objects with H≤23.0 do so every 1000-2000 years.

  8. A feasibility study of cumulative risk assessment methods for drinking water disinfection by-product mixtures.

    PubMed

    Teuschler, Linda K; Rice, Glenn E; Wilkes, Charles R; Lipscomb, John C; Power, Fred W

    Humans are exposed daily to complex mixtures of chemicals, including drinking water disinfection by-products (DBPs) via oral, dermal, and inhalation routes. Some positive epidemiological and toxicological studies suggest reproductive and developmental effects and cancer are associated with consumption of chlorinated drinking water. Thus, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted research to examine the feasibility of evaluating simultaneous exposures to multiple DBPs via all three exposure routes. A cumulative risk assessment approach was developed for DBP mixtures by combining exposure modeling and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling results with a new mixtures risk assessment method, the cumulative relative potency factors (CRPF) approach. Internal doses were estimated for an adult female and an adult male, each of reproductive age, and for a child (age 6 yr) inclusive of oral, dermal, and inhalation exposures. Estimates of the daily internal doses were made for 13 major DBPs, accounting for activity patterns that affect the amount of human contact time with drinking water (e.g., tap water consumed, time spent showering), building characteristics (e.g., household air volumes), and physicochemical properties of the DBPs (e.g., inhalation rates, skin permeability rates, blood: air partition coefficients). A novel cumulative risk assessment method, the CRPF approach, is advanced that integrates the principles of dose addition and response addition to produce multiple-route, chemical mixture risk estimates using total absorbed doses. Research needs to improve this approach are presented.

  9. Cumulative exposure to short sleep and body mass outcomes: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Krueger, Patrick M; Reither, Eric N; Peppard, Paul E; Burger, Andrew E; Hale, Lauren

    2015-12-01

    Short sleep duration is associated with excess body mass among adolescents and young adults. The mechanisms theorized to drive that association suggest that persistent exposure to short sleep should be associated with greater accumulations of body mass. We use prospective cohort data from four waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (1994-2009; n = 14 800) to examine associations between cumulative exposure to short sleep throughout adolescence and early adulthood and obesity and elevated waist circumference outcomes. We compare several clinical and distribution-based standards of short sleep to assess which measures are associated most strongly with body mass. Cumulative exposure to short sleep exhibits dose-response associations with obesity and elevated waist circumference. Relative to respondents with no instances of short sleep, those who slept -0.50 standard deviations or less than the age and sex-specific average sleep hours in all four waves had 1.45 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 2.04] times the odds of being obese and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.06) times the odds of having an elevated waist circumference. Our findings suggest that cumulative exposure to short sleep during adolescence and young adulthood may play an important role in the etiology of obesity and elevated waist circumference during this important developmental period.

  10. Race, Space, and Cumulative Disadvantage: A Case Study of the Subprime Lending Collapse.

    PubMed

    Rugh, Jacob S; Albright, Len; Massey, Douglas S

    2015-05-01

    In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities generate racialized patterns of subprime lending and lead to financial loss among black borrowers in segregated cities. We conceptualize race as a cumulative disadvantage because of its direct and indirect effects on socioeconomic status at the individual and neighborhood levels, with consequences that reverberate across a borrower's life and between generations. Using Baltimore, Maryland as a case study setting, we combine data from reports filed under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act with additional loan-level data from mortgage-backed securities. We find that race and neighborhood racial segregation are critical factors explaining black disadvantage across successive stages in the process of lending and foreclosure, controlling for differences in borrower credit scores, income, occupancy status, and loan-to-value ratios. We analyze the cumulative cost of predatory lending to black borrowers in terms of reduced disposable income and lost wealth. We find the cost to be substantial. Black borrowers paid an estimated additional 5 to 11 percent in monthly payments and those that completed foreclosure in the sample lost an excess of $2 million in home equity. These costs were magnified in mostly black neighborhoods and in turn heavily concentrated in communities of color. By elucidating the mechanisms that link black segregation to discrimination we demonstrate how processes of cumulative disadvantage continue to undermine black socioeconomic status in the United States today.

  11. Cumulative Exposure to Short Sleep and Body Mass Outcomes: A Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Krueger, Patrick M.; Reither, Eric N.; Peppard, Paul E.; Burger, Andrew E.; Hale, Lauren

    2016-01-01

    SUMMARY Short sleep duration is associated with excess body mass among adolescents and young adults. The mechanisms theorized to drive that association suggest that persistent exposure to short sleep should be associated with greater accumulations of body mass. We use prospective cohort data from four waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (1994–2009; N=14,800) to examine associations between cumulative exposure to short sleep throughout adolescence and early adulthood, and obesity and elevated waist circumference outcomes. We compare several clinical and distribution-based standards of short sleep to assess which measures are most strongly associated with body mass. Cumulative exposure to short sleep exhibits dose-response associations with obesity and elevated waist circumference. Relative to respondents with no instances of short sleep, those who slept −0.50 standard deviations or less than the age and sex-specific average sleep hours in all four waves had 1.45 (95% CI=1.03, 2.04) times the odds of being obese and 1.45 (95% CI=1.02, 2.06) times the odds of having an elevated waist circumference. Our findings suggest that cumulative exposure to short sleep during adolescence and young adulthood may play an important role in the development of obesity and elevated waist circumference during this important developmental period. PMID:26211809

  12. Race, Space, and Cumulative Disadvantage: A Case Study of the Subprime Lending Collapse

    PubMed Central

    Rugh, Jacob S.; Albright, Len; Massey, Douglas S.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities generate racialized patterns of subprime lending and lead to financial loss among black borrowers in segregated cities. We conceptualize race as a cumulative disadvantage because of its direct and indirect effects on socioeconomic status at the individual and neighborhood levels, with consequences that reverberate across a borrower's life and between generations. Using Baltimore, Maryland as a case study setting, we combine data from reports filed under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act with additional loan-level data from mortgage-backed securities. We find that race and neighborhood racial segregation are critical factors explaining black disadvantage across successive stages in the process of lending and foreclosure, controlling for differences in borrower credit scores, income, occupancy status, and loan-to-value ratios. We analyze the cumulative cost of predatory lending to black borrowers in terms of reduced disposable income and lost wealth. We find the cost to be substantial. Black borrowers paid an estimated additional 5 to 11 percent in monthly payments and those that completed foreclosure in the sample lost an excess of $2 million in home equity. These costs were magnified in mostly black neighborhoods and in turn heavily concentrated in communities of color. By elucidating the mechanisms that link black segregation to discrimination we demonstrate how processes of cumulative disadvantage continue to undermine black socioeconomic status in the United States today. PMID:27478254

  13. Random forests as cumulative effects models: A case study of lakes and rivers in Muskoka, Canada.

    PubMed

    Jones, F Chris; Plewes, Rachel; Murison, Lorna; MacDougall, Mark J; Sinclair, Sarah; Davies, Christie; Bailey, John L; Richardson, Murray; Gunn, John

    2017-10-01

    Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) - a type of environmental appraisal - lacks effective methods for modeling cumulative effects, evaluating indicators of ecosystem condition, and exploring the likely outcomes of development scenarios. Random forests are an extension of classification and regression trees, which model response variables by recursive partitioning. Random forests were used to model a series of candidate ecological indicators that described lakes and rivers from a case study watershed (The Muskoka River Watershed, Canada). Suitability of the candidate indicators for use in cumulative effects assessment and watershed monitoring was assessed according to how well they could be predicted from natural habitat features and how sensitive they were to human land-use. The best models explained 75% of the variation in a multivariate descriptor of lake benthic-macroinvertebrate community structure, and 76% of the variation in the conductivity of river water. Similar results were obtained by cross-validation. Several candidate indicators detected a simulated doubling of urban land-use in their catchments, and a few were able to detect a simulated doubling of agricultural land-use. The paper demonstrates that random forests can be used to describe the combined and singular effects of multiple stressors and natural environmental factors, and furthermore, that random forests can be used to evaluate the performance of monitoring indicators. The numerical methods presented are applicable to any ecosystem and indicator type, and therefore represent a step forward for CEA. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The impact of research synthesis methods on industrial-organizational psychology: The road from pessimism to optimism about cumulative knowledge.

    PubMed

    DeGeest, David S; Schmidt, Frank L

    2010-07-01

    This paper presents an account of the impact that research synthesis methods, in the form of psychometric meta-analysis, has had on industrial/organizational (I/O) psychology. This paper outlines the central contributions of psychometric meta-analysis in providing a method for developing cumulative knowledge. First, this paper describes the concerns and the state of the field before the development of meta-analytic methods. Second, the paper explains how meta-analysis addressed these concerns. Third, the paper details the development of psychometric meta-analysis through VG research and describes how the use of psychometric meta-analysis spread to other topic areas in the field. Finally, the paper presents illustrative example literatures, such as training and leadership, where meta-analysis had crucial impacts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Role of sulfite additives in wine induced asthma: single dose and cumulative dose studies

    PubMed Central

    Vally, H; Thompson, P

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND—Wine appears to be a significant trigger for asthma. Although sulfite additives have been implicated as a major cause of wine induced asthma, direct evidence is limited. Two studies were undertaken to assess sulfite reactivity in wine sensitive asthmatics. The first study assessed sensitivity to sulfites in wine using a single dose sulfited wine challenge protocol followed by a double blind, placebo controlled challenge. In the second study a cumulative dose sulfited wine challenge protocol was employed to establish if wine sensitive asthmatics as a group have an increased sensitivity to sulfites.
METHODS—In study 1, 24 asthmatic patients with a strong history of wine induced asthma were screened. Subjects showing positive responses to single blind high sulfite (300 ppm) wine challenge were rechallenged on separate days in a double blind, placebo controlled fashion with wines of varying sulfite levels to characterise their responses to these drinks. In study 2, wine sensitive asthmatic patients (n=12) and control asthmatics (n=6) were challenged cumulatively with wine containing increasing concentrations of sulfite in order to characterise further their sensitivity to sulfites in wine.
RESULTS—Four of the 24 self-reporting wine sensitive asthmatic patients were found to respond to sulfite additives in wine when challenged in a single dose fashion (study 1). In the double blind dose-response study all four had a significant fall in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) (>15% from baseline) following exposure to wine containing 300 ppm sulfite, but did not respond to wines containing 20, 75 or 150 ppm sulfite. Responses were maximal at 5 minutes (mean (SD) maximal decline in FEV1 28.7 (13)%) and took 15-60 minutes to return to baseline levels. In the cumulative dose-response study (study 2) no significant difference was observed in any of the lung function parameters measured (FEV1, peak expiratory flow (PEF), mid phase forced expiratory

  16. Case-control study of cumulative cigarette tar exposure and lung and upper aerodigestive tract cancers.

    PubMed

    Meyers, Travis J; Chang, Shen-Chih; Chang, Po-Yin; Morgenstern, Hal; Tashkin, Donald P; Rao, Jian-Yu; Cozen, Wendy; Mack, Thomas M; Zhang, Zuo-Feng

    2017-05-01

    The development of comprehensive measures for tobacco exposure is crucial to specify effects on disease and inform public health policy. In this population-based case-control study, we evaluated the associations between cumulative lifetime cigarette tar exposure and cancers of the lung and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT). The study included 611 incident cases of lung cancer; 601 cases of UADT cancers (oropharyngeal, laryngeal and esophageal cancers); and 1,040 cancer-free controls. We estimated lifetime exposure to cigarette tar based on tar concentrations abstracted from government cigarette records and self-reported smoking histories derived from a standardized questionnaire. We analyzed the associations for cumulative tar exposure with lung and UADT cancer, overall and according to histological subtype. Cumulative tar exposure was highly correlated with pack-years among ever smoking controls (Pearson coefficient = 0.90). The adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence limits) for the estimated effect of about 1 kg increase in tar exposure (approximately the interquartile range in all controls) was 1.61 (1.50, 1.73) for lung cancer and 1.21 (1.13, 1.29) for UADT cancers. In general, tar exposure was more highly associated with small, squamous and large cell lung cancer than adenocarcinoma. With additional adjustment for pack-years, positive associations between tar and lung cancer were evident, particularly for small cell and large cell subtypes. Therefore, incorporating the composition of tobacco carcinogens in lifetime smoking exposure may improve lung cancer risk estimation. This study does not support the claim of a null or inverse association between "low exposure" to tobacco smoke and risk of these cancer types.

  17. Theoretical technique for predicting the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in streams receiving discharge from coal mines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bobay, Keith E.

    1986-01-01

    Two U.S. Geological Survey computer programs are modified and linked to predict the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in coal-mine discharge water on the dissolved chemical quality of a receiving stream. The coupled programs calculate the changes in dissolved iron, dissolved manganese, and dissolved oxygen concentrations; alkalinity; and, pH of surface water downstream from the point of discharge. First, the one-dimensional, stead-state stream, water quality program uses a dissolved oxygen model to calculate the changes in concentration of elements as a function of the chemical reaction rates and time-of-travel. Second, a program (PHREEQE) combining pH, reduction-oxidation potential, and equilibrium equations uses an aqueous-ion association model to determine the saturation indices and to calculate pH; it then mixes the discharge with a receiving stream. The kinetic processes of the first program dominate the system, whereas the equilibrium thermodynamics of the second define the limits of the reactions. A comprehensive test of the technique was not possible because a complete set of data was unavailable. However, the cumulative impact of representative discharges from several coal mines on stream quality in a small watershed in southwestern Indiana was simulated to illustrate the operation of the technique and to determine its sensitivity to changes in physical, chemical, and kinetic parameters. Mine discharges averaged 2 cu ft/sec, with a pH of 6.0, and concentrations of 7.0 mg/L dissolved iron, 4.0 mg/L dissolved manganese, and 8.08 mg/L dissolved oxygen. The receiving stream discharge was 2 cu ft/sec, with a pH of 7.0, and concentrations of 0.1 mg/L dissolved iron, 0.1 mg/L dissolved manganese, and 8.70 mg/L dissolved oxygen. Results of the simulations indicated the following cumulative impact on the receiving stream from five discharges as compared with the effect from one discharge: 0.30 unit decrease in pH, 1.82 mg/L increase in dissolved

  18. Determinants of Sexual Network Structure and Their Impact on Cumulative Network Measures

    PubMed Central

    Schmid, Boris V.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2012-01-01

    There are four major quantities that are measured in sexual behavior surveys that are thought to be especially relevant for the performance of sexual network models in terms of disease transmission. These are (i) the cumulative distribution of lifetime number of partners, (ii) the distribution of partnership durations, (iii) the distribution of gap lengths between partnerships, and (iv) the number of recent partners. Fitting a network model to these quantities as measured in sexual behavior surveys is expected to result in a good description of Chlamydia trachomatis transmission in terms of the heterogeneity of the distribution of infection in the population. Here we present a simulation model of a sexual contact network, in which we explored the role of behavioral heterogeneity of simulated individuals on the ability of the model to reproduce population-level sexual survey data from the Netherlands and UK. We find that a high level of heterogeneity in the ability of individuals to acquire and maintain (additional) partners strongly facilitates the ability of the model to accurately simulate the powerlaw-like distribution of the lifetime number of partners, and the age at which these partnerships were accumulated, as surveyed in actual sexual contact networks. Other sexual network features, such as the gap length between partnerships and the partnership duration, could–at the current level of detail of sexual survey data against which they were compared–be accurately modeled by a constant value (for transitional concurrency) and by exponential distributions (for partnership duration). Furthermore, we observe that epidemiological measures on disease prevalence in survey data can be used as a powerful tool for building accurate sexual contact networks, as these measures provide information on the level of mixing between individuals of different levels of sexual activity in the population, a parameter that is hard to acquire through surveying individuals. PMID

  19. Utility of the cumulative stress and mismatch hypotheses in understanding the neurobiological impacts of childhood abuse and recent stress in youth with emerging mental disorder.

    PubMed

    Paquola, Casey; Bennett, Maxwell R; Hatton, Sean N; Hermens, Daniel F; Lagopoulos, Jim

    2017-03-03

    Childhood abuse has an enduring impact on the brain's stress system. Whether the effects of childhood abuse and adulthood stress are additive (cumulative stress hypothesis) or interactive (mismatch hypothesis) is widely disputed, however. The primary aim of this study was to test the utility of the cumulative stress and mismatch hypotheses in understanding brain and behaviour. We recruited 64 individuals (aged 14-26) from a specialised clinic for assessment and early intervention of mental health problems in young people. A T1-weighted MRI, a resting state fMRI and clinical assessment were acquired from each participant. Grey matter estimates and resting state functional connectivity (rsFC) of the hippocampus, amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) were determined using segmentation and seed-to-voxel rsFC analyses. We explored the effects of childhood abuse and recent stress on the structure and function of the regions of interest within general linear models. Worse psychiatric symptoms were significantly related to higher levels of life time stress. Individuals with mismatched childhood and recent stress levels had reduced left hippocampal volume, reduced ACC-ventrolateral prefrontal cortex rsFC and greater ACC-hippocampus rsFC, compared to individuals with matched childhood and recent stress levels. These results show specific utility of the cumulative stress hypothesis in understanding psychiatric symptomatology and of the mismatch hypothesis in modelling hippocampal grey matter, prefrontal rsFC, and prefrontal-hippocampal rsFC. We provide novel evidence for the enduring impact of childhood abuse on stress reactivity in a clinical population, and demonstrate the distinct effects of stress in different systems. Hum Brain Mapp, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Cumulative survival rate and associated risk factors of Implantium implants: A 10-year retrospective clinical study.

    PubMed

    Park, Jin-Hong; Kim, Young-Soo; Ryu, Jae-Jun; Shin, Sang-Wan; Lee, Jeong-Yol

    2017-06-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the cumulative survival rate (CSR) and associated risk factors of Implantium implants by retrospective clinical study. Patients who received Implantium implants (Dentium Co., Seoul, Korea) at Korea University Guro Hospital from 2004 to 2011 were included. The period between the first surgery and the last hospital visit until December 2015 was set as the observation period for this study. Clinical and radiographic data were collected from patient records, including all complications observed during the follow-up period. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to examine CSR. Multiple Cox proportional hazard model was employed to assess the associations between potential risk factors and CSR. A total of 370 implants were placed in 121 patients (mean age, 56.1 years; range, 19 to 75 years). Of the 370 implants, 13 failed, including 7 implants that were lost before loading. The 10-year cumulative survival rate of implants was 94.8%. The multiple Cox proportional hazard model revealed that significant risk factor of implant failure were smoking and maxillary implant (P<.05). The 10-year CSR of Implantium implants was 94.8%. Risk factors of implant failure were smoking and maxillary implant.

  1. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  2. Identifying Predictors of Cumulative Healthcare Costs in Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Population‐Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Bennell, Maria C.; Qiu, Feng; Micieli, Andrew; Ko, Dennis T.; Dorian, Paul; Atzema, Clare L.; Singh, Sheldon M.; Wijeysundera, Harindra C.

    2015-01-01

    Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) has substantial impacts on healthcare resource utilization. Our objective was to understand the pattern and predictors of cumulative healthcare costs in AF patients after incident diagnosis in an emergency department (ED). Methods and Results Patients discharged after a first presentation of AF to an ED in Ontario, Canada, were identified from April 1, 2005, through March 31, 2010. Per‐patient cumulative healthcare costs were determined until death or March 31, 2012. Join‐point analyses identified clinically relevant cost phases. Hierarchical generalized linear models with a logarithmic link and gamma distribution determined predictors of cost per phase. Our cohort was 17 980 patients. During a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years, 17.1% of patients died. Three distinct cost phases were identified: 2‐month post–index ED visit phase, 12‐month predeath phase, and a stable/chronic phase. The mean cost per patient in the first month post–index ED visit was $1876 (95% CI $1822 to $1931), $8050 (95% CI $7666 to $8434) in the month before death, and $640 (95% CI $624 to $655) per month for the stable/chronic phase. The main cost component in the post‐index phase was physician services (32% of all costs) and hospitalizations for the predeath phase (72% of all costs). The CHA2DS2‐VASc clinical risk score was a strong predictor of costs (rate ratio 1.91 and 5.08 for score of 7 versus score of 0 in predeath phase and postindex phase, respectively). Conclusions There are distinct phases of resource utilization in AF, with highest costs in the predeath phase. PMID:25907124

  3. Cumulative receipt of an anti-poverty tax credit for families did not impact tobacco smoking among parents.

    PubMed

    Pega, Frank; Gilsanz, Paola; Kawachi, Ichiro; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

    2017-04-01

    The effect of anti-poverty tax credit interventions on tobacco consumption is unclear. Previous studies have estimated short-term effects, did not isolate the effects of cumulative dose of tax credits, produced conflicting results, and used methods with limited control for some time-varying confounders (e.g., those affected by prior treatment) and treatment regimen (i.e., study participants' tax credit receipt pattern over time). We estimated the longer-term, cumulative effect of New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) on tobacco consumption, using a natural experiment (administrative errors leading to exogenous variation in FTC receipt) and methods specifically for controlling confounding, reverse causation, and treatment regimen. We extracted seven waves (2002-2009) of the nationally representative Survey of Family, Income and Employment including 4404 working-age (18-65 years) parents in families. The exposure was the total numbers of years of receiving FTC. The outcomes were regular smoking and the average daily number of cigarettes usually smoked at wave 7. We estimated average treatment effects using inverse probability of treatment weighting and marginal structural modelling. Each additional year of receiving FTC affected neither the odds of regular tobacco smoking among all parents (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.11), nor the number of cigarettes smoked among parents who smoked regularly (rate ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.03). We found no evidence for an association between the cumulative number of years of receiving an anti-poverty tax credit and tobacco smoking or consumption among parents. The assumptions of marginal structural modelling are quite demanding, and we therefore cannot rule out residual confounding. Nonetheless, our results suggest that tax credit programme participation will not increase tobacco consumption among poor parents, at least in this high-income country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  4. Rising tides, cumulative impacts and cascading changes to estuarine ecosystem functions.

    PubMed

    O'Meara, Theresa A; Hillman, Jenny R; Thrush, Simon F

    2017-08-31

    In coastal ecosystems, climate change affects multiple environmental factors, yet most predictive models are based on simple cause-and-effect relationships. Multiple stressor scenarios are difficult to predict because they can create a ripple effect through networked ecosystem functions. Estuarine ecosystem function relies on an interconnected network of physical and biological processes. Estuarine habitats play critical roles in service provision and represent global hotspots for organic matter processing, nutrient cycling and primary production. Within these systems, we predicted functional changes in the impacts of land-based stressors, mediated by changing light climate and sediment permeability. Our in-situ field experiment manipulated sea level, nutrient supply, and mud content. We used these stressors to determine how interacting environmental stressors influence ecosystem function and compared results with data collected along elevation gradients to substitute space for time. We show non-linear, multi-stressor effects deconstruct networks governing ecosystem function. Sea level rise altered nutrient processing and impacted broader estuarine services ameliorating nutrient and sediment pollution. Our experiment demonstrates how the relationships between nutrient processing and biological/physical controls degrade with environmental stress. Our results emphasise the importance of moving beyond simple physically-forced relationships to assess consequences of climate change in the context of ecosystem interactions and multiple stressors.

  5. Cumulative impacts of hurricanes on Florida mangrove ecosystems: Sediment deposition, storm surges and vegetation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, T. J.; Anderson, G.H.; Balentine, K.; Tiling, G.; Ward, G.A.; Whelan, K.R.T.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes have shaped the structure of mangrove forests in the Everglades via wind damage, storm surges and sediment deposition. Immediate effects include changes to stem size-frequency distributions and to species relative abundance and density. Long-term impacts to mangroves are poorly understood at present. We examine impacts of Hurricane Wilma on mangroves and compare the results to findings from three previous storms (Labor Day, Donna, Andrew). Surges during Wilma destroyed ??? 1,250 ha of mangroves and set back recovery that started following Andrew. Data from permanent plots affected by Andrew and Wilma showed no differences among species or between hurricanes for stem mortality or basal area lost. Hurricane damage was related to hydro-geomorphic type of forest. Basin mangroves suffered significantly more damage than riverine or island mangroves. The hurricane by forest type interaction was highly significant. Andrew did slightly more damage to island mangroves. Wilma did significantly more damage to basin forests. This is most likely a result of the larger and more spatially extensive storm surge produced by Wilma. Forest damage was not related to amount of sediment deposited. Analyses of reports from Donna and the Labor Day storm indicate that some sites have recovered following catastrophic disturbance. Other sites have been permanently converted into a different ecosystem, namely intertidal mudflats. Our results indicate that mangroves are not in a steady state as has been recently claimed. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  6. Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

    SciTech Connect

    Canter, L.W.; Chawla, M.K.; Swor, C.T.

    2014-01-15

    Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.

  7. Some thoughts on using a landscape framework to address cumulative impacts on wetland food chain support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klopatek, Jeffrey M.

    1988-09-01

    Problems of using food chain support as a functional attribute of a wetland are discussed. It is suggested that primary production may not be the metric that best evaluates food chain support. Environmental constructs of the wetland and resultant habitat variables appear to yield more information on life-support functions. A landscape-oriented approach is derived to separate hierarchically the wet-lands into ecological regions and landscape elements. This classification scheme allows for predetermination of environmental constraints and the possible natural limits of wetland food chain support. It is proposed that models derived from spatial location theory be used to determine the movement of animals from wetland patches experiencing impacts on food chain support. Patch size, distance between patches, habitat diversity, and environmental constraints are incorporated in these models.

  8. Retrospective study of cumulative diagnostic radiation exposure during childhood in patients with spina bifida.

    PubMed

    Smookler, Gregory; Deavenport-Saman, Alexis

    2015-10-01

    The Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee of the National Academy of Sciences in 2005 and other expert panels have warned that risk of cancer increases with higher doses of radiation. Children with spina bifida and hydrocephalus have far greater exposure to radiation than the average person, starting almost directly after birth and continuing throughout their lifetimes. The purpose of this study was to estimate the amount of ionizing radiation that patients with spina bifida and hydrocephalus are exposed to during childhood from diagnostic imaging. Thirty patients, ages 18 years or older, with spina bifida and hydrocephalus were randomly selected from a spina bifida clinic and their radiology records were reviewed. Descriptive analyses were conducted. The total radiation exposure was then calculated for the study group, and the mean effective dose per patient was determined. In the study group, during their first 18 years, each patient had a mean of 55.1 studies and a median of 45 radiologic studies, a mean of 9.6 brain CT scans, and a mean cumulative effective dose of 81.9 mSv (2.6 mSv/patient/year over 18 years) and a median cumulative effective dose of 77.2 mSV of accumulated radiation exposure (4.5 mSv/patient/year over 18 years). Clinicians should recognize that increased radiation exposure puts patients with spina bifida and hydrocephalus at higher risk for cancer. The population of children and adults with spina bifida and hydrocephalus should be surveyed for incidence of cancer. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Associations between silicone skin cast score, cumulative sun exposure, and other factors in the ausimmune study: a multicenter Australian study.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Robyn M; Ponsonby, Anne-Louise; Dear, Keith; Taylor, Bruce V; Dwyer, Terence; McMichael, Anthony J; Valery, Patricia; van der Mei, Ingrid; Williams, David; Pender, Michael P; Chapman, Caron; Coulthard, Alan; Kilpatrick, Trevor

    2009-11-01

    Past sun exposure is linked to a wide range of disease outcomes but is difficult to measure accurately. Silicone skin casts measure skin damage, but some studies show that age rather than sun exposure is the most important determinant of cast score. We examined skin damage scores from silicone casts of the back of the hand in a large adult sample (n = 534) with a broad range of past cumulative UV radiation (UVR) doses. Participants were ages 18 to 61 years and resided in one of four locations down the eastern Australian seaboard, spanning 27-43 degrees S. Data were collected by questionnaire and during a nurse-led interview and examination. Silicone casts were graded from 1 to 6, where higher score represents greater damage. Higher skin damage score was associated with lighter skin pigmentation [adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 4.51; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.33-8.75], fairer natural hair color, particularly red hair (AOR, 11.31; 95% CI, 4.08-31.36), and blue/gray eyes (AOR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.14-2.59). Higher cumulative UVR dose, particularly before age 18 years, was associated with higher skin damage score (AOR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.15-2.67 per 1,000 KJ/m(2)), as was number of sunburns, even after adjustment for cumulative UVR dose (AOR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.50-5.43 for >10 sunburns ever compared with no sunburns ever). Silicone casts of the dorsum of the hand provide a measure of cumulative UVR dose and number of sunburns over the lifetime, which persists after adjustment for chronological age. They can be used as an objective measure of cumulative past sun exposure in epidemiologic studies, but other determinants of skin damage, such as skin pigmentation, should be concurrently evaluated.

  10. Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Wallace, Cynthia; Webb, Robert H.

    2016-01-01

    Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R2 = 0.83 and 2010: R2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

  11. Cumulative bioluminescence; A potential rapid test of drilling fluid toxicity: development study

    SciTech Connect

    Stiffey, A.V. )

    1992-03-01

    A new rapid test of drilling fluid toxicity is based on the spontaneous bioluminescence of Pyrocystis lunula, an easy-to-culture alga that vigorously responds to shear stress (mixing) by emitting a sharp burst of light. In contrast to other bioluminescence methods, a cumulative flux of light is measured with a photomultiplier that eliminates the effect of exposure time on test results. Light quenching, caused by the presence of a toxicant, results in the dose/response relationship (DSR) typical for the enzymatic reaction kinetics. The Michaelis-Menten (dissociation) constant is used as a direct measure of toxicity. The evaluation study involved multiple experiments with 60 samples of drilling fluids from the U.S. gulf coast, as well as such typical toxicants as diesel oil, mineral oil, and chrome lignosulfonate (CLS). In this paper, the results of the test error analysis and comparisons with the Microtox and Mysid shrimp assays are reported.

  12. Percent relative cumulative frequency analysis in indirect calorimetry: application to studies of transgenic mice.

    PubMed

    Riachi, Marc; Himms-Hagen, Jean; Harper, Mary-Ellen

    2004-12-01

    Indirect calorimetry is commonly used in research and clinical settings to assess characteristics of energy expenditure. Respiration chambers in indirect calorimetry allow measurements over long periods of time (e.g., hours to days) and thus the collection of large sets of data. Current methods of data analysis usually involve the extraction of only a selected small proportion of data, most commonly the data that reflects resting metabolic rate. Here, we describe a simple quantitative approach for the analysis of large data sets that is capable of detecting small differences in energy metabolism. We refer to it as the percent relative cumulative frequency (PRCF) approach and have applied it to the study of uncoupling protein-1 (UCP1) deficient and control mice. The approach involves sorting data in ascending order, calculating their cumulative frequency, and expressing the frequencies in the form of percentile curves. Results demonstrate the sensitivity of the PRCF approach for analyses of oxygen consumption (.VO2) as well as respiratory exchange ratio data. Statistical comparisons of PRCF curves are based on the 50th percentile values and curve slopes (H values). The application of the PRCF approach revealed that energy expenditure in UCP1-deficient mice housed and studied at room temperature (24 degrees C) is on average 10% lower (p < 0.0001) than in littermate controls. The gradual acclimation of mice to 12 degrees C caused a near-doubling of .VO2 in both UCP1-deficient and control mice. At this lower environmental temperature, there were no differences in .VO2 between groups. The latter is likely due to augmented shivering thermogenesis in UCP1-deficient mice compared with controls. With the increased availability of murine models of metabolic disease, indirect calorimetry is increasingly used, and the PRCF approach provides a novel and powerful means for data analysis.

  13. Cumulative Lead Exposure and Tooth Loss in Men: The Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Manish; Weuve, Jennifer; Weisskopf, Marc G.; Sparrow, David; Nie, Huiling; Garcia, Raul I.; Hu, Howard

    2009-01-01

    Background Individuals previously exposed to lead remain at risk because of endogenous release of lead stored in their skeletal compartments. However, it is not known if long-term cumulative lead exposure is a risk factor for tooth loss. Objectives We examined the association of bone lead concentrations with loss of natural teeth. Methods We examined 333 men enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Normative Aging Study. We used a validated K-shell X-ray fluorescence (KXRF) method to measure lead concentrations in the tibial midshaft and patella. A dentist recorded the number of teeth remaining, and tooth loss was categorized as 0, 1–8 or ≥ 9 missing teeth. We used proportional odds models to estimate the association of bone lead biomarkers with tooth loss, adjusting for age, smoking, diabetes, and other putative confounders. Results Participants with ≥ 9 missing teeth had significantly higher bone lead concentrations than those who had not experienced tooth loss. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, men in the highest tertile of tibia lead (> 23 μg/g) and patella lead (> 36 μg/g) had approximately three times the odds of having experienced an elevated degree of tooth loss (≥ 9 vs. 0–8 missing teeth or ≥ 1 vs. 0 missing teeth) as those in the lowest tertile [prevalence odds ratio (OR) = 3.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.60–5.76 and OR = 2.41; 95% CI, 1.30–4.49, respectively]. Associations between bone lead biomarkers and tooth loss were similar in magnitude to the increased odds observed in participants who were current smokers. Conclusion Long-term cumulative lead exposure is associated with increased odds of tooth loss. PMID:20019902

  14. Cumulative Impacts Of Landuse On Water Quality In A Southern Appalachian Watershed

    Treesearch

    Paul V. Bolstad; Wayne T. Swank

    1997-01-01

    Environmental planning and regulatory mandates require assessment of water quality changes associat-ed with distributed landuse activities (in this study, as in much of the literature, landuse and landcover will be used interchangeably, and refer to general classes of landcover associated with specific land-uses). Such environmental analyses can be approached from a “...

  15. The cumulative impacts of repeated heavy rainfall, flooding and altered water quality on the high-latitude coral reefs of Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Butler, I R; Sommer, B; Zann, M; Zhao, J-X; Pandolfi, J M

    2015-07-15

    Terrestrial runoff and flooding have resulted in major impacts on coral communities worldwide, but we lack detailed understanding of flood plume conditions and their ecological effects. Over the course of repeated flooding between 2010 and 2013, we measured coral cover and water quality on the high-latitude coral reefs of Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia. In 2013, salinity, total suspended solids, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were altered for up to six months post-flooding. Submarine groundwater caused hypo-saline conditions for a further four months. Despite the greater magnitude of flooding in 2013, declines in coral abundance (∼28%) from these floods were lower than the 2011 flood (∼40%), which occurred immediately after a decade of severe drought. There was an overall cumulative decrease of coral by ∼56% from 2010 to 2013. Our study highlights the need for local scale monitoring and research to facilitate informed management and conservation of catchments and marine environments.

  16. Deterministic modelling of the cumulative impacts of underground structures on urban groundwater flow and the definition of a potential state of urban groundwater flow: example of Lyon, France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Winiarski, Thierry; Cuvillier, Loann; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2016-08-01

    Underground structures have been shown to have a great influence on subsoil resources in urban aquifers. A methodology to assess the actual and the potential state of the groundwater flow in an urban area is proposed. The study develops a three-dimensional modeling approach to understand the cumulative impacts of underground infrastructures on urban groundwater flow, using a case in the city of Lyon (France). All known underground structures were integrated in the numerical model. Several simulations were run: the actual state of groundwater flow, the potential state of groundwater flow (without underground structures), an intermediate state (without impervious structures), and a transient simulation of the actual state of groundwater flow. The results show that underground structures fragment groundwater flow systems leading to a modification of the aquifer regime. For the case studied, the flow systems are shown to be stable over time with a transient simulation. Structures with drainage systems are shown to have a major impact on flow systems. The barrier effect of impervious structures was negligible because of the small hydraulic gradient of the area. The study demonstrates that the definition of a potential urban groundwater flow and the depiction of urban flow systems, which involves understanding the impact of underground structures, are important issues with respect to urban underground planning.

  17. Cumulative exergy extraction from the natural environment (CEENE): a comprehensive life cycle impact assessment method for resource accounting.

    PubMed

    Dewulf, J; Bösch, M E; De Meester, B; Van der Vorst, G; Van Langenhove, H; Hellweg, S; Huijbregts, M A J

    2007-12-15

    The objective of the paper is to establish a comprehensive resource-based life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) method which is scientifically sound and that enables to assess all kinds of resources that are deprived from the natural ecosystem, all quantified on one single scale, free of weighting factors. The method is based on the exergy concept. Consistent exergy data on fossils, nuclear and metal ores, minerals, air, water, land occupation, and renewable energy sources were elaborated, with well defined system boundaries. Based on these data, the method quantifies the exergy "taken away" from natural ecosystems, and is thus called the cumulative exergy extraction from the natural environment (CEENE). The acquired data set was coupled with a state-of-the art life cycle inventory database, ecoinvent. In this way, the method is able to quantitatively distinguish eight categories of resources withdrawn from the natural environment: renewable resources, fossil fuels, nuclear energy, metal ores, minerals, water resources, land resources, and atmospheric resources. Third, the CEENE method is illustrated for a number of products that are available in ecoinvent, and results are compared with common resource oriented LCIA methods. The application to the materials in the ecoinvent database showed that fossil resources and land use are of particular importance with regard to the total CEENE score, although the other resource categories may also be significant.

  18. Addressing Potential Cumulative Impacts of Development on Threatened Species: The Case of the Endangered Black-Throated Finch

    PubMed Central

    Vanderduys, Eric Peter; Reside, April E.; Grice, Anthony; Rechetelo, Juliana

    2016-01-01

    Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development, policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However, developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland's Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted, extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland, Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore, insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning, especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection. PMID:26934622

  19. Addressing Potential Cumulative Impacts of Development on Threatened Species: The Case of the Endangered Black-Throated Finch.

    PubMed

    Vanderduys, Eric Peter; Reside, April E; Grice, Anthony; Rechetelo, Juliana

    2016-01-01

    Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development, policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However, developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland's Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted, extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland, Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore, insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning, especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection.

  20. Cumulative loads increase at the knee joint with slow-speed running compared to faster running: a biomechanical study.

    PubMed

    Petersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Henrik; Nielsen, Rasmus Østergaard

    2015-04-01

    Biomechanical cross-sectional study. To investigate the hypothesis that the cumulative load at the knee during running increases as running speed decreases. The knee joint load per stride decreases as running speed decreases. However, by decreasing running speed, the number of strides per given distance is increased. Running a given distance at a slower speed may increase the cumulative load at the knee joint compared with running the same distance at a higher speed, hence increasing the risk of running-related injuries in the knee. Kinematic and ground reaction force data were collected from 16 recreational runners, during steady-state running with a rearfoot strike pattern at 3 different speeds (mean ± SD): 8.02 ± 0.17 km/h, 11.79 ± 0.21 km/h, and 15.78 ± 0.22 km/h. The cumulative load (cumulative impulse) over a 1000-m distance was calculated at the knee joint on the basis of a standard 3-D inverse-dynamics approach. Based on a 1000-m running distance, the cumulative load at the knee was significantly higher at a slow running speed than at a high running speed (relative difference, 80%). The mean load per stride at the knee increased significantly across all biomechanical parameters, except impulse, following an increase in running speed. Slow-speed running decreases knee joint loads per stride and increases the cumulative load at the knee joint for a given running distance compared to faster running. The primary reason for the increase in cumulative load at slower speeds is an increase in number of strides needed to cover the same distance.

  1. Using cumulative sums of martingale residuals for model checking in nested case-control studies.

    PubMed

    Borgan, Ørnulf; Zhang, Ying

    2015-09-01

    Standard use of Cox regression requires collection of covariate information for all individuals in a cohort even when only a small fraction of them experiences the event of interest (fail). This may be very expensive for large cohorts. Further in biomarker studies, it will imply a waste of valuable biological material that one may want to save for future studies. A nested case-control study offers a useful alternative. For this design, covariate information is only needed for the failing individuals (cases) and a sample of controls selected from the cases' at-risk sets. Methods based on martingale residuals are useful for checking the fit of Cox's regression model for cohort data. But similar methods have so far not been developed for nested case-control data. In this article, it is described how one may define martingale residuals for nested case-control data, and it is shown how plots and tests based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals may be used to check model fit. The plots and tests may be obtained using available software.

  2. Cumulative impacts of aggregate extraction on seabed macro-invertebrate communities in an area off the east coast of the United Kingdom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, Keith; Boyd, Siân; Aldridge, John; Rees, Hubert

    2007-05-01

    This study investigates whether there is any evidence of a large-scale cumulative impact on benthic macro-invertebrate communities as a result of the multiple sites of aggregate extraction located off Great Yarmouth in the southern North Sea. Forty 0.1 m 2 Hamon grab samples were collected from across the region, both within and beyond the extraction area, and analysed for macrofauna and sediment particle size distribution in order to produce a regional description of the status of the seabed environment. In addition, the data were analysed in relation to the area of seabed impacted by dredging over the period 1993-1998. Areas subject to 'direct' impacts were determined through reference to annual electronic records of dredging activity and this information was then used to model the likely extent of areas potentially subject to 'indirect' ecological and geophysical impact. Results showed the study area to be characterised by sands in the northern half of the survey area, and sandy gravels in the south. The low diversity communities found across much of the survey area were typical of mobile sandy sediments. However, stations located in the southern half and northern extreme of the survey area tended to support higher numbers of species and individuals. This may be due to marginally enhanced stability arising from the higher proportion of gravel found in samples to the south of the extraction licenses and to the presence of Sabellaria spinulosa reef in the north. Analysis of data in relation to areas of predicted dredging impact revealed proportionally less gravel and more sand within the 'direct' impact zone, compared to the 'indirect' impact zone. Whilst multivariate analyses of macrofaunal data did not clearly discriminate between dredging impact zones, a comparison of univariate measures revealed significantly lower numbers of species and individuals in areas which have been subject to 'direct' dredging impacts in comparison with 'reference' areas. This

  3. Spatial and temporal assessment of cumulative disturbance impacts due to military training, burning, haying, and their interactions on land condition of Fort Riley.

    PubMed

    Wang, Guangxing; Murphy, Dana; Oller, Adam; Howard, Heidi R; Anderson, Alan B; Rijal, Santosh; Myers, Natalie R; Woodford, Philip

    2014-07-01

    The effects of military training activities on the land condition of Army installations vary spatially and temporally. Training activities observably degrade land condition while also increasing biodiversity and stabilizing ecosystems. Moreover, other anthropogenic activities regularly occur on military lands such as prescribed burns and agricultural haying-adding to the dynamics of land condition. Thus, spatially and temporally assessing the impacts of military training, prescribed burning, agricultural haying, and their interactions is critical to the management of military lands. In this study, the spatial distributions and patterns of military training-induced disturbance frequency were derived using plot observation and point observation-based method, at Fort Riley, Kansas from 1989 to 2001. Moreover, spatial and variance analysis of cumulative impacts due to military training, burning, haying, and their interactions on the land condition of Fort Riley were conducted. The results showed that: (1) low disturbance intensity dominated the majority of the study area with exception of concentrated training within centralized areas; (2) high and low values of disturbance frequency were spatially clustered and had spatial patterns that differed significantly from a random distribution; and (3) interactions between prescribed burning and agricultural haying were not significant in terms of either soil erosion or disturbance intensity although their means and variances differed significantly between the burned and non-burned areas and between the hayed and non-hayed areas.

  4. Contested Cumulations:

    PubMed Central

    Pickstone, John V.

    2007-01-01

    Summary The treatment of cancer through the twentieth century may be seen as the successive addition of modalities: first surgery; then radiotherapy, especially between the world wars; and then chemotherapy, from the 1960s. This paper explores some of the systematic differences between the modalities, and how these additions were negotiated in different countries, with different long-term consequences for the development of services and specialization. It focuses chiefly on the United Kingdom and the United States, the former exemplifying a centralized health polity, and the latter, liberal markets combined with large and crucial postwar inputs from government. The differences between health polities were especially important for interwar radiotherapy, which in its centralized form appeared as paradigmatic of the analytical/rationalizing mode in modern medicine. Chemotherapy exemplified a more inventive and experimentalist mode that became common after World War II, and that, through the practice of trials, shaped the new subprofession of medical oncology. The interactions of the modalities, at various levels, are modeled as contested cumulations showing strong path dependency. The paper ends by reviewing the present situation, especially for Britain, and by underlining the relevance of history. PMID:17369667

  5. A Longitudinal Study of Reading Comprehension Achievement from Grades 3 to 10: Investigating Models of Stability, Cumulative Growth, and Compensation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwiatkowska-White, Bozena; Kirby, John R.; Lee, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    This longitudinal study of 78 Canadian English-speaking students examined the applicability of the stability, cumulative, and compensatory models in reading comprehension development. Archival government-mandated assessments of reading comprehension at Grades 3, 6, and 10, and the Canadian Test of Basic Skills measure of reading comprehension…

  6. A Longitudinal Study of Reading Comprehension Achievement from Grades 3 to 10: Investigating Models of Stability, Cumulative Growth, and Compensation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwiatkowska-White, Bozena; Kirby, John R.; Lee, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    This longitudinal study of 78 Canadian English-speaking students examined the applicability of the stability, cumulative, and compensatory models in reading comprehension development. Archival government-mandated assessments of reading comprehension at Grades 3, 6, and 10, and the Canadian Test of Basic Skills measure of reading comprehension…

  7. Cumulative watershed effects: Caspar Creek and beyond

    Treesearch

    Leslie M. Reid

    1998-01-01

    Cumulative effects are the combined effects of multiple activities, and watershed effects are those which involve processes of water transport. Almost all impacts are influenced by multiple activities, so almost all impacts must be evaluated as cumulative impacts rather than as individual impacts. Existing definitions suggest that to be significant, an impact must be...

  8. Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

    Treesearch

    Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

    1989-01-01

    A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

  9. The cumulative burden of surviving childhood cancer: an initial report from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE).

    PubMed

    Bhakta, Nickhill; Liu, Qi; Ness, Kirsten K; Baassiri, Malek; Eissa, Hesham; Yeo, Frederick; Chemaitilly, Wassim; Ehrhardt, Matthew J; Bass, Johnnie; Bishop, Michael W; Shelton, Kyla; Lu, Lu; Huang, Sujuan; Li, Zhenghong; Caron, Eric; Lanctot, Jennifer; Howell, Carrie; Folse, Timothy; Joshi, Vijaya; Green, Daniel M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Krull, Kevin R; Brinkman, Tara M; Khan, Raja B; Srivastava, Deo K; Hudson, Melissa M; Yasui, Yutaka; Robison, Leslie L

    2017-09-07

    Survivors of childhood cancer develop early and severe chronic health conditions (CHCs). A quantitative landscape of morbidity of survivors, however, has not been described. We aimed to describe the cumulative burden of curative cancer therapy in a clinically assessed ageing population of long-term survivors of childhood cancer. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE) retrospectively collected data on CHCs in all patients treated for childhood cancer at the St Jude Children's Research Hospital who survived 10 years or longer from initial diagnosis and were 18 years or older as of June 30, 2015. Age-matched and sex-frequency-matched community controls were used for comparison. 21 treatment exposure variables were included in the analysis, with data abstracted from medical records. 168 CHCs for all participants were graded for severity using a modified Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events. Multiple imputation with predictive mean matching was used for missing occurrences and grades of CHCs in the survivors who were not clinically evaluable. Mean cumulative count was used for descriptive cumulative burden analysis and marked-point-process regression was used for inferential cumulative burden analysis. Of 5522 patients treated for childhood cancer at St Jude Children's Research Hospital who had complete records, survived 10 years or longer, and were 18 years or older at time of study, 3010 (54·5%) were alive, had enrolled, and had had prospective clinical assessment. 2512 (45·5%) of the 5522 patients were not clinically evaluable. The cumulative incidence of CHCs at age 50 years was 99·9% (95% CI 99·9-99·9) for grade 1-5 CHCs and 96·0% (95% CI 95·3-96·8%) for grade 3-5 CHCs. By age 50 years, a survivor had experienced, on average, 17·1 (95% CI 16·2-18·1) CHCs of any grade, of which 4·7 (4·6-4·9) were CHCs of grade 3-5. The cumulative burden in matched community controls of grade 1-5 CHCs was 9·2 (95% CI 7·9-10·6; p<0·0001 vs total study

  10. Cumulative success rates following mild IVF in unselected infertile patients: a 3-year, single-centre cohort study.

    PubMed

    Bodri, Daniel; Kawachiya, Satoshi; De Brucker, Michaël; Tournaye, Herman; Kondo, Masae; Kato, Ryutaro; Matsumoto, Tsunekazu

    2014-05-01

    A 3-year, retrospective, single-centre cohort study was conducted in a private infertility centre to determine cumulative live birth rates (LBR) per scheduled oocyte retrieval following minimal ovarian stimulation/natural-cycle IVF in unselected infertile patients. A total of 727 consecutive infertile patients were analysed who underwent 2876 (median 4) cycles with scheduled oocyte retrieval from November 2008 to December 2011. Natural-cycle IVF or clomiphene-based minimal ovarian stimulation was coupled with single-embryo transfer and increased use of delayed vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer. Main outcome measures were crude and expected age-specific cumulative LBR per scheduled oocyte retrieval. Crude cumulative LBR were 65%, 60%, 39%, 15% and 5% in patients aged 26-34, 35-37, 38-40, 41-42 and 43-44 years, respectively. No live births occurred in patients aged ⩾ 45 years. Dropout rates per cycle were 13-25%. Success rates gradually reached a plateau, with few additional live births after six cycles. Most of the expected success rate was reached within 6 months with almost maximal rates within 15 months of the first oocyte retrieval. Acceptable cumulative LBR are reached with an exclusive minimal ovarian stimulation/single-embryo transfer policy especially in patients aged <38 years but also in intermediate aged patients (38-40 years).

  11. Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

    PubMed Central

    Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

    2015-01-01

    Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; p<.001) and increased IMT progression from 2001 to 2007 (b=.003; se=.001; p=.001). The associations were robust to adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

  12. Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    PubMed

    Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

    2016-01-01

    Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity and having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Participants were 2265 men and women (age range, 24-39 years in 2001) from the ongoing Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMTs were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b = 0.004, standard error [SE] = 0.001, p < .001) and increased IMT progression from 2001 to 2007 (b = 0.003, SE = 0.001, p = .001). The associations were robust to adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status, and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b = 0.007, SE = 0.003, p = .016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b = 0.004, SE = 0.002, p = .031) after adjustment for age, sex, and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life, and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood.

  13. Impact of smoking status and cumulative smoking exposure on tumor recurrence of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

    PubMed

    Li, Hao Min; Azhati, Baihetiya; Rexiati, Mulati; Wang, Wen Guang; Li, Xiao Dong; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Yu-Jie

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the effect of smoking status, cumulative smoking exposure and smoking cessation on the outcomes of patient with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). We collected smoking data from 484 patients with NMIBC who were treated with transurethral resection (TUR); smoking status was categorized as (never smokers vs current smokers vs former smokers). Cumulative smoking exposure was categorized as high smoking exposure (cigarette index ≥400) versus low smoking exposure (cigarette index <400). Association with outcomes was examined by multivariable analyses after adjusting for the effects of standard clinicopathologic factors, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the effect of smoking status and cumulative smoking exposure on RFS. A total of 168 (34.7 %) patients were never smoker, 121 (25 %) patients were current smokers, and 195 (40.3 %) patients were former smokers. The median follow-up was 25 months. By multivariate analysis, pathological grade (p = 0.013), history of recurrence (p < 0.001), number of tumors (p < 0.001) and size of tumors (p = 0.013) were significantly associated with tumor recurrence; nevertheless, smoking status did not influence tumor recurrence (p = 0.063). Among current and former smokers, cumulative smoking exposure was significantly associated with tumor recurrence (p < 0.001), compared to current smokers, patients with smoking cessation ≥10 years had a lower risk of tumor recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) 0.456, p = 0.007]. Smoking affects the prognosis of patient with NMIBC, which is still controversial; however, among ever smokers, a high cumulative exposure smoking can significantly increase the risk of tumor recurrence. Quitting smoking might be associated with a lower recurrence rate for patients with NMIBC.

  14. Cumulative potential hydrologic impacts of surface coal mining in the eastern Powder River structural basin, northeastern Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, L.J.; Naftz, D.L.; Lowham, H.W.; Rankl, J.G.

    1988-01-01

    There are 16 existing and six proposed surface coal mines in the eastern Powder River structural basin of northeastern Wyoming. Coal mining companies predict water level declines of 5 ft or more in the Wasatch aquifer to extend form about 1,000 to about 2,000 ft beyond the mine pits. The predicted 5 ft water level decline in the Wyodak coal aquifer generally extends 4-8 mi beyond the lease areas. About 3,000 wells are in the area of potential cumulative water level declines resulting from all anticipated mining. Of these 3,000 wells, about 1,200 are outside the areas of anticipated mining: about 1,000 wells supply water for domestic or livestock uses, and about 200 wells supply water for municipal, industrial, irrigation, and miscellaneous uses. The 1,800 remaining wells are used by coal mining companies. Future surface coal mining probably will result in postmining groundwater of similar quality to that currently present in the study area. By use of geochemical modeling techniques, the results of a hypothetical reaction path exercise indicate the potential for marked improvements in postmining water quality because of chemical reactions as postmining groundwater with a large dissolved solids concentration (3,540 mg/L) moves into a coal aquifer with relatively small dissolved solids concentrations (910 mg/L). Results of the modeling exercise also indicate geochemical conditions that are most ideal for large decreases in dissolved solids concentrations in coal aquifers receiving recharge from a spoil aquifer. (Lantz-PTT)

  15. Cumulative watershed effects: Then and now

    Treesearch

    Leslie M. Reid

    2001-01-01

    Abstract - Cumulative effects are the combined effects of multiple activities, and watershed effects are those which involve processes of water transport. Almost all impacts are influenced by multiple activities, so almost all impacts must be evaluated as cumulative impacts rather than as individual impacts. Existing definitions suggest that to be significant, an...

  16. Shale gas, wind and water: assessing the potential cumulative impacts of energy development on ecosystem services within the Marcellus play.

    PubMed

    Evans, Jeffrey S; Kiesecker, Joseph M

    2014-01-01

    Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km(2) in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades.

  17. Shale Gas, Wind and Water: Assessing the Potential Cumulative Impacts of Energy Development on Ecosystem Services within the Marcellus Play

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Jeffrey S.; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km2 in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades. PMID:24586599

  18. Respiratory exposures associated with silicon carbide production: estimation of cumulative exposures for an epidemiological study.

    PubMed Central

    Smith, T J; Hammond, S K; Laidlaw, F; Fine, S

    1984-01-01

    Silicon carbide is produced by heating a mixture of petroleum coke and silica sand to approximately 2000 degrees C in an electric furnace for 36 hours. During heating, large amounts of carbon monoxide are released, sulphur dioxide is produced from residual sulphur in the coke, and hydrocarbon fume is produced by pyrolysis of the coke. Loading and unloading furnaces causes exposures to respirable dust containing crystalline silica, silicon carbide, and hydrocarbons. In the autumn of 1980 extensive measurements were made of personal exposures to air contaminants. Eight hour time weighted exposures to sulphur dioxide ranged from less than 0.1 ppm to 1.5 ppm and respirable participate exposures ranged from 0.01 mg/m3 to 9.0 mg/m3. Geometric mean particulate exposures for jobs ranged from 0.1 mg/m3 to 1.46 mg/m3. The particulate contained varying amounts of alpha-quartz, ranging from less than 1% to 17%, and most quartz exposures were substantially below the threshold limit value of 100 micrograms/m3. Only traces of cristobalite (less than 1%) were found in the particulate. Median exposures to air contaminants in each job were estimated. Since the operations at the plant had been stable over the past 30 years, it was possible to estimate long term exposures of workers to sulphur dioxide, respirable particulate, quartz, total inorganic material, and extractable organic material. Cumulative exposure (average concentration times exposure duration) for each of the air contaminants was estimated for each worker using his job history. There was sufficient independent variability in the sulphur dioxide and respirable particulate cumulative exposures to make an assessment of their independent effects feasible. The theoretical basis for using the cumulative exposure index and its shortcomings for epidemiological applications were presented. PMID:6691927

  19. Impact of hyperhydration on the mortality risk in critically ill patients admitted in intensive care units: comparison between bioelectrical impedance vector analysis and cumulative fluid balance recording.

    PubMed

    Samoni, Sara; Vigo, Valentina; Reséndiz, Luis Ignacio Bonilla; Villa, Gianluca; De Rosa, Silvia; Nalesso, Federico; Ferrari, Fiorenza; Meola, Mario; Brendolan, Alessandra; Malacarne, Paolo; Forfori, Francesco; Bonato, Raffaele; Donadio, Carlo; Ronco, Claudio

    2016-04-08

    Studies have demonstrated a positive correlation between fluid overload (FO) and adverse outcomes in critically ill patients. The present study aims at defining the impact of hyperhydration on the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) mortality risk, comparing Bioelectrical Impedance Vector Analysis (BIVA) assessment with cumulative fluid balance (CFB) recording. We performed a prospective, dual-centre, clinician-blinded, observational study of consecutive patients admitted to ICU with an expected length of ICU stay of at least 72 hours. During observational period (72-120 hours), CFB was recorded and cumulative FO was calculated. At the admission and daily during the observational period, BIVA was performed. We considered FO between 5% and 9.99% as moderate and a FO ≥ 10% as severe. According to BIVA hydration scale of lean body mass, patients were classified as normohydrated (>72.7%-74.3%), mild (>71%-72.7%), moderate (>69%-71%) and severe (≤ 69%) dehydrated and mild (>74.3%-81%), moderate (>81%-87%) and severe (>87%) hyperhydrated. Two multivariate logistic regression models were performed: the ICU mortality was the response variable, while the predictor variables were hyperhydration, measured by BIVA (BIVA model), and FO (FO model). A p-value <0.05 was considered to indicate statistical significance. One hundred and twenty-five patients were enrolled (mean age 64.8 ± 16.0 years, 65.6% male). Five hundred and fifteen BIVA measurements were performed. The mean CFB recorded at the end of the observational period was 2.7 ± 4.1 L, while the maximum hydration of lean body mass estimated by BIVA was 83.67 ± 6.39%. Severe hyperhydration measured by BIVA was the only variable found to be significantly associated with ICU mortality (OR 22.91; 95% CI 2.38-220.07; p < 0.01). The hydration status measured by BIVA seems to predict mortality risk in ICU patients better than the conventional method of fluid balance recording. Moreover, it appears to be safe, easy to use and

  20. Fine-scale traverses in cumulate rocks, Stillwater Complex: A lunar analogue study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elthon, Donald

    1988-01-01

    The objective was to document finite-scale compositional variations in cumulate rocks from the Stillwater Complex in Montana and to interpret these data in the context of planetary magma fractionation processes such as those operative during the formation of the Earth's Moon. This research problem involved collecting samples in the Stillwater Complex and analyzing them by electron microprobe, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The electron microprobe is used to determine the compositions of cumulus and intercumulus phases in the rocks, the XRF is used to determine the bulk-rock major element and trace element (Y, Sr, Rb, Zr, Ni, and Cr) abundances, and the INAA lab. is used to determine the trace element (Sc, Co, Cr, Ni, Ta, Hf, U, Th, and the REE) abundances of mineral separates and bulk rocks.

  1. Evaluating heterogeneity in cumulative meta-analyses

    PubMed Central

    Villanueva, Elmer V; Zavarsek, Silva

    2004-01-01

    Background Recently developed measures such as I2 and H allow the evaluation of the impact of heterogeneity in conventional meta-analyses. There has been no examination of the development of heterogeneity in the context of a cumulative meta-analysis. Methods Cumulative meta-analyses of five smoking cessation interventions (clonidine, nicotine replacement therapy using gum and patch, physician advice and acupuncture) were used to calculate I2 and H. These values were plotted by year of publication, control event rate and sample size to trace the development of heterogeneity over these covariates. Results The cumulative evaluation of heterogeneity varied according to the measure of heterogeneity used and the basis of cumulation. Plots produced from the calculations revealed areas of heterogeneity useful in the consideration of potential sources for further study. Conclusion The examination of heterogeneity in conjunction with summary effect estimates in a cumulative meta-analysis offered valuable insight into the evolution of variation. Such information is not available in the context of conventional meta-analysis and has the potential to lead to the development of a richer picture of the effectiveness of interventions. PMID:15251035

  2. Evaluating heterogeneity in cumulative meta-analyses.

    PubMed

    Villanueva, Elmer V; Zavarsek, Silva

    2004-07-13

    Recently developed measures such as I2 and H allow the evaluation of the impact of heterogeneity in conventional meta-analyses. There has been no examination of the development of heterogeneity in the context of a cumulative meta-analysis. Cumulative meta-analyses of five smoking cessation interventions (clonidine, nicotine replacement therapy using gum and patch, physician advice and acupuncture) were used to calculate I2 and H. These values were plotted by year of publication, control event rate and sample size to trace the development of heterogeneity over these covariates. The cumulative evaluation of heterogeneity varied according to the measure of heterogeneity used and the basis of cumulation. Plots produced from the calculations revealed areas of heterogeneity useful in the consideration of potential sources for further study. The examination of heterogeneity in conjunction with summary effect estimates in a cumulative meta-analysis offered valuable insight into the evolution of variation. Such information is not available in the context of conventional meta-analysis and has the potential to lead to the development of a richer picture of the effectiveness of interventions.

  3. Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts in California: Evidence From a Statewide Environmental Justice Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen 1.1).

    PubMed

    Cushing, Lara; Faust, John; August, Laura Meehan; Cendak, Rose; Wieland, Walker; Alexeeff, George

    2015-11-01

    We used an environmental justice screening tool (CalEnviroScreen 1.1) to compare the distribution of environmental hazards and vulnerable populations across California communities. CalEnviroScreen 1.1 combines 17 indicators created from 2004 to 2013 publicly available data into a relative cumulative impact score. We compared cumulative impact scores across California zip codes on the basis of their location, urban or rural character, and racial/ethnic makeup. We used a concentration index to evaluate which indicators were most unequally distributed with respect to race/ethnicity and poverty. The unadjusted odds of living in one of the 10% most affected zip codes were 6.2, 5.8, 1.9, 1.8, and 1.6 times greater for Hispanics, African Americans, Native Americans, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and other or multiracial individuals, respectively, than for non-Hispanic Whites. Environmental hazards were more regressively distributed with respect to race/ethnicity than poverty, with pesticide use and toxic chemical releases being the most unequal. Environmental health hazards disproportionately burden communities of color in California. Efforts to reduce disparities in pollution burden can use simple screening tools to prioritize areas for action.

  4. Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts in California: Evidence From a Statewide Environmental Justice Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen 1.1)

    PubMed Central

    Faust, John; August, Laura Meehan; Cendak, Rose; Wieland, Walker; Alexeeff, George

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We used an environmental justice screening tool (CalEnviroScreen 1.1) to compare the distribution of environmental hazards and vulnerable populations across California communities. Methods. CalEnviroScreen 1.1 combines 17 indicators created from 2004 to 2013 publicly available data into a relative cumulative impact score. We compared cumulative impact scores across California zip codes on the basis of their location, urban or rural character, and racial/ethnic makeup. We used a concentration index to evaluate which indicators were most unequally distributed with respect to race/ethnicity and poverty. Results. The unadjusted odds of living in one of the 10% most affected zip codes were 6.2, 5.8, 1.9, 1.8, and 1.6 times greater for Hispanics, African Americans, Native Americans, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and other or multiracial individuals, respectively, than for non-Hispanic Whites. Environmental hazards were more regressively distributed with respect to race/ethnicity than poverty, with pesticide use and toxic chemical releases being the most unequal. Conclusions. Environmental health hazards disproportionately burden communities of color in California. Efforts to reduce disparities in pollution burden can use simple screening tools to prioritize areas for action. PMID:26378826

  5. Playing It Safe: Assessing Cumulative Impact and Social Vulnerability through an Environmental Justice Screening Method in the South Coast Air Basin, California

    PubMed Central

    Sadd, James L.; Pastor, Manuel; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Scoggins, Justin; Jesdale, Bill

    2011-01-01

    Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB), have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ) advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM) as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard proximity and land use; (2) air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3) social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES) measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI) score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns. PMID:21655129

  6. Playing it safe: assessing cumulative impact and social vulnerability through an environmental justice screening method in the South Coast Air Basin, California.

    PubMed

    Sadd, James L; Pastor, Manuel; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Scoggins, Justin; Jesdale, Bill

    2011-05-01

    Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB), have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ) advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM) as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard proximity and land use; (2) air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3) social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES) measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI) score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns.

  7. Cumulative systolic blood pressure exposure in relation to cognitive function in middle-aged and elderly adults: A prospective, population-based study.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jie; Huang, Yuling; Chen, Guojuan; Liu, Xiaoxue; Wang, Zhijun; Cao, Yibin; Li, Haitao; Song, Lu; Li, Chunhui; Zhao, Hualing; Chen, Shuohua; Wang, Yiming; Zhang, Ruiying; Wang, Anxin; Wu, Shouling

    2016-11-01

    The association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cognitive function is controversial in elderly adults. In addition, few studies focused on the cumulative effect of SBP. We aimed to investigate the association between cumulative SBP exposure and cognitive function among middle-aged and elderly adults.The analysis was based on the Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities Community (APAC) study. The primary predictor was the cumulative SBP calculated by consecutive SBP values measured through baseline (2006-2007) up to the fourth examination (2012-2013). The cognitive function was estimated by mini-mental state examination (MMSE) in the fourth examination. Linear regression and logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the association between cumulative SBP and cognitive function.Among 2211 participants (41.4% female, aged 40-94 years), 167 (7.55%) were diagnosed with cognitive impairment (MMSE score < 24). Higher cumulative exposure to SBP (per SD increment) was independently associated with poor cognitive performance after controlling for multiple factors (P < 0.001). We observed nondifferential association between men and women. However, higher cumulative SBP in the adults aged ≥60 years had a stronger association with poor cognitive performance compared with that in adults aged 40 to 60 years.Greater exposure to cumulative SBP is associated with worse cognitive performance among middle-aged and elderly adults. This association is similar between men and women, but stronger in elderly adults.

  8. Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life and risk of sickness absence and disability pension: prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Poulsen, Otto Melchior; Clausen, Thomas; Rugulies, Reiner; Møller, Anne; Andersen, Lars L

    2017-09-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the prospective association of cumulative mechanical exposure during working life with health-related labor market outcomes. Methods This prospective cohort study combines data from 5076 older workers (age 49-63 years) from the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank with a job exposure matrix and a national register containing information on social transfer payment. By coding individual job histories from the Danish version of ISCO-codes (International Standard Classification of Occupations), we calculated cumulative occupational mechanical exposures from a JEM for ton-years (lifting 1000 kg each day in one year), lifting-years (lifting loads weighing ≥20 kg >10 times each day in one year), kneeling-years (kneeling for one hour each day in one year) and vibration-years (whole-body vibration for one hour each day in one year). Cox-regression analyses estimated the relative risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension with cumulative occupational mechanical exposures throughout working life. Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results During the follow-up period, 970 persons (19.3%) had ≥1 episode of LTSA and 85 persons (1.7%) were granted a disability pension. Number of ton-, lifting- and kneeling-years showed an exposure-response association with increased risk of LTSA (P<0.0001). In addition, both long term [≥20 years; hazard ratio (HR) 1.76 95% CI 1.39-2.22] and short term (<10 years; HR 1.20 95% CI 1.02-1.41) exposure to kneeling work increased the risk of LTSA. Lifting-years, but not the other mechanical exposures, were associated with risk of disability pension (HR 1.75 95% CI 1.01-3.04). Conclusions Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life - such as lifting and kneeling work - increased the risk of LTSA. Importantly, being exposed to lifting increased the risk of disability pension.

  9. Measurement error correction for the cumulative average model in the survival analysis of nutritional data: application to Nurses' Health Study.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Weiliang; Rosner, Bernard

    2010-01-01

    The use of the cumulative average model to investigate the association between disease incidence and repeated measurements of exposures in medical follow-up studies can be dated back to the 1960s (Kahn and Dawber, J Chron Dis 19:611-620, 1966). This model takes advantage of all prior data and thus should provide a statistically more powerful test of disease-exposure associations. Measurement error in covariates is common for medical follow-up studies. Many methods have been proposed to correct for measurement error. To the best of our knowledge, no methods have been proposed yet to correct for measurement error in the cumulative average model. In this article, we propose a regression calibration approach to correct relative risk estimates for measurement error. The approach is illustrated with data from the Nurses' Health Study relating incident breast cancer between 1980 and 2002 to time-dependent measures of calorie-adjusted saturated fat intake, controlling for total caloric intake, alcohol intake, and baseline age.

  10. Ongoing and cumulative pregnancy rate after cleavage-stage versus blastocyst-stage embryo transfer using vitrification for cryopreservation: impact of age on the results.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Shaw, S; Cercas, R; Braña, C; Villas, C; Pons, I

    2015-02-01

    To determine if blastocyst transfer increases the ongoing and cumulative pregnancy rates, compared with day 3 embryo transfer, in women of all ages when at least 4 zygotes are obtained. Prospective study including patients undergoing a first IVF/ICSI treatment and assigned to cleavage stage (n = 46) or blastocyst (n = 58) embryo transfer. Supernumerary embryos were vitrified and patients failing to achieve an ongoing pregnancy after fresh embryo transfer would go through cryopreserved cycles. The main outcome measure was the ongoing pregnancy rate after the fresh IVF/ICSI transfer and the cumulative ongoing pregnancy rate. Results were also analyzed according to age (under 35 and 35 or older). A majority of patients (96.6 %) had a blastocyst transfer when at least 4 zygotes were obtained. The ongoing pregnancy rate was significantly higher in the day-5 group compared with the day-3 group (43.1 % vs. 24 %, p = 0.041). The cumulative ongoing pregnancy rate was higher (but not significantly) with blastocyst than with cleavage stage embryos (56.8 % vs. 43.4 %, p = 0.174). When analysed by age, patients 35 or older showed significantly higher ongoing pregnancy rate (48.4 % vs. 19.3 %, p = 0.016) and cumulative ongoing pregnancy rate (58 % vs. 25.8 %, p = 0.01) in the day-5 group compared to the day-3 group, while no such differences were observed in women under 35. Blastocyst transfer can be suggested whenever there are at least 4 zygotes. While there are no differences in women under 35, the benefit of this option over cleavage stage transfer could be significant in women 35 or older.

  11. In-vivo measurements of Pb-210 to determine cumulative exposure to radon daughters: A pilot study

    SciTech Connect

    Laurer, G.R.; Cohen, N. . Dept. of Environmental Medicine); Stark, A.; Ju, C. . Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology)

    1991-05-01

    The objective of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of estimating cumulative exposure of individuals to low concentrations of radon by measuring the amount of Pb-A-10 in their skeletons. This report presents progress to date establishing the validity of an vivo technique to measure skeletal burdens of Pb-210, accumulated from exposure to radon and radon progeny. With the skeletal content of Pb--210 and a model for Pb metabolism, cumulative exposure to radon and its short-lived daughters (radon/daughters) may be calculated for use in deriving a dose-response relationship between lung cancer and exposure to radon/daughters. Data are presented for 29 subjects exposed to above-average'' radon concentrations in their homes, showing the correlation between measured Pb--210 burdens, and measured pCi/l and WLM exposure estimates. Their results are compared to measurements of a population of 24 subject's presumed exposed to average concentrations. Measurements of a Pennsylvania family exposed for a year in a home with an extremely high radon content are also presented. Update of results of an ongoing study of the biological half-time of Pb--210 in man involving measurements, of a retired radiation worker with a 40 year old skeletal burden of Pb-210.

  12. Testing a cumulative and aggregate exposure model using biomonitoring studies and dietary records for Italian vineyard spray operators.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Marc C; Glass, C Richard; Fustinoni, Silvia; Moretto, Angelo; Mandic-Rajcevic, Stefan; Riso, Patrizia; Turrini, Aida; van der Voet, Hilko; Hetmanski, Michel T; Fussell, Richard J; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    The need for improved tools to estimate the cumulative and aggregate exposure to compounds such as plant protection products (PPPs) is recognised in the EU Regulation 1107/2009. A new model has been developed to estimate the exposure within a population to single compounds or compounds within a Cumulative Action Group, considering dietary and non-dietary sources and multiple exposure routes. To test the model a field study was carried out in Italy with operators applying tebuconazole fungicides, with measurements of dermal exposure collected. Whole urine samples were collected and analysed to provide values for the absorbed dose of tebuconazole, with duplicate diet samples collected and analysed as a measure of dietary exposures. The model provided predicted values of exposure for combined dietary and non-dietary routes of exposures which were compared to the measured absorbed dose values based on urinary analysis. The model outputs provided mean daily exposure values of 1.77 (± 1.96) µg a.s./kg BW which are comparable to measured mean values from the biomonitoring field study of 1.73 (± 1.31) µg a.s./kg BW. To supplement the limited measurement data available, comparisons against other models were also made and found to be comparable.

  13. Impact of individual and cumulative coronary risk factors on coronary flow reserve assessed by dobutamine stress echocardiography.

    PubMed

    Ahmari, Saeed A L; Bunch, T Jared; Modesto, Karen; Stussy, Vicky; Dichak, Amy; Seward, James B; Pellikka, Patricia A; Chandrasekaran, Krishnaswamy

    2008-06-15

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have been shown to cause microvascular dysfunction. Most studies that have evaluated microcirculation rely on invasive measurement tools. We used dobutamine stress echocardiography, a validated method to measure coronary flow velocity (CFV) and coronary flow reserve (CFR), in a previously unstudied population without known significant coronary artery disease to determine the impact of traditional risk factors on CFR. Consecutive patients who had no evidence of regional wall motion abnormalities at rest or during dobutamine stress echocardiography were studied. Left anterior descending artery CFV was measured at baseline and at peak dobutamine stress and CFR was calculated as the ratio of peak stress CFV to baseline CFV. Fifty-nine consecutive patients (28 men) with mean age of 66.8+/-14.5 years were studied. CFR was lower in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) compared with those without (1.7+/-0.74 vs 2.48+/-0.98, p<0.007), in patients with hypertension compared with those without (2+/-0.8 vs 2.6+/-0.9, p<0.02), and in obese patients compared with nonobese patients (1.6+/-0.5 vs 2+/-0.6, p<0.02). CFR was further impaired in the presence of DM with hypertension, DM with obesity, DM with a wide pulse pressure (>50 mm Hg), and obesity with a wide pulse pressure. In a multivariate model, DM, obesity, and wide pulse pressure were significantly associated with variation in CFR (p<0.0008). In conclusion, CFR was abnormal in patients with DM, hypertension, and obesity. CFR impairment is exaggerated as the number of risk factors increases. Despite a negative dobutamine stress echocardiographic result, aggressive risk factor assessment and control should be implemented in patients with coronary risk factors due to an underlying abnormal CFR.

  14. A Comparative Study of the College Entrance Examination Board Validity Study Service and Freshmen Cumulative Point Averages.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bukowski, Joseph E.

    The success with which freshmen cumulative point averages may be predicted from a combination of a student's high school rank, Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) score (Verbal) and SAT score (Mathematics) was investigated. A multiple regression formula developed by the College Entrance Examination Board was used to combine the three predictors into a…

  15. A Comparative Study of the College Entrance Examination Board Validity Study Service and Freshmen Cumulative Point Averages.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bukowski, Joseph E.

    The success with which freshmen cumulative point averages may be predicted from a combination of a student's high school rank, Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) score (Verbal) and SAT score (Mathematics) was investigated. A multiple regression formula developed by the College Entrance Examination Board was used to combine the three predictors into a…

  16. In-vivo measurements of Pb-210 to determine cumulative exposure to radon daughters: A pilot study

    SciTech Connect

    Laurer, G.R.; Cohen, N. . Inst. of Environmental Medicine); Stark, A.; Ju, C. . Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology)

    1990-10-01

    The feasibility of measuring Pb-210 in vivo in the skulls of those individuals who have resided in homes with above average levels of radon/radon daughters, has now been successfully demonstrated. These values, when incorporated into metabolic models of Pb-210 in the body including other related physical parameters, can be used for the calculation of a realistic estimate of a resident's cumulative exposure to radon and its' decay products. Data are presented for 26 subjects exposed to higher than average concentrations of radon i.e. ranging from 10 to 120 pCi/l, for various periods of time. Their skeletal Pb-210 burdens are compared to measurement results of a population of individuals presumed to have been exposed to values which are more representative of average levels i.e. <1pCi/1. Results of a study to determine the biological retention of Pb-210 in the human skeleton for use in the metabolic model relating skull burdens of this nuclide to cumulative radon/daughter exposure, are also described. At the present time, our measurements, made over a period of 10 years, of an individual with a significant Pb-210 burden, indicate a biological half-time of approximately 57 years and an effective half-life of 16 years. 4 refs., 11 figs.

  17. Cumulative second-harmonic analysis of ultrasonic Lamb waves for ageing behavior study of modified-HP austenite steel.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Yanxun; Deng, Mingxi; Xuan, Fu-Zhen; Liu, Chang-Jun

    2011-12-01

    The cumulative second-harmonic analysis of ultrasonic Lamb wave has been performed to study the precipitation kinetics and microvoid initiation of ferritic Cr-Ni alloy steel during the ageing process. Ageing of ferritic Cr-Ni alloy materials have been done at 1223 K and 1173 K for different degradation time intervals and air cooled. The results show that the normalized acoustic nonlinearity of Lamb wave increases with the formation of fine precipitates at the early stage of ageing till about 1000 h and keeps as a plateau with the precipitates dynamic balance for a long-term ageing, and then decreases gradually at the final holding time with the coarsening of precipitates and initiation of microvoids. The results also show that the variation of nonlinear Lamb wave follows the same trend as that of hardness in materials. Therefore, the cumulative second-harmonic of ultrasonic Lamb waves has been found to be strongly sensitive to the precipitates behavior and microstructure evolution during the thermal ageing of ferritic Cr-Ni alloy steel.

  18. The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Delgado, E A

    2015-12-15

    Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful.

  19. Cumulative probability of false-positive recall or biopsy recommendation after 10 years of screening mammography: a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Hubbard, Rebecca A; Kerlikowske, Karla; Flowers, Chris I; Yankaskas, Bonnie C; Zhu, Weiwei; Miglioretti, Diana L

    2011-10-18

    False-positive mammography results are common. Biennial screening may decrease the cumulative probability of false-positive results across many years of repeated screening but could also delay cancer diagnosis. To compare the cumulative probability of false-positive results and the stage distribution of incident breast cancer after 10 years of annual or biennial screening mammography. Prospective cohort study. 7 mammography registries in the National Cancer Institute-funded Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. 169,456 women who underwent first screening mammography at age 40 to 59 years between 1994 and 2006 and 4492 women with incident invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 1996 and 2006. False-positive recalls and biopsy recommendations stage distribution of incident breast cancer. False-positive recall probability was 16.3% at first and 9.6% at subsequent mammography. Probability of false-positive biopsy recommendation was 2.5% at first and 1.0% at subsequent examinations. Availability of comparison mammograms halved the odds of a false-positive recall (adjusted odds ratio, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.45 to 0.56]). When screening began at age 40 years, the cumulative probability of a woman receiving at least 1 false-positive recall after 10 years was 61.3% (CI, 59.4% to 63.1%) with annual and 41.6% (CI, 40.6% to 42.5%) with biennial screening. Cumulative probability of false-positive biopsy recommendation was 7.0% (CI, 6.1% to 7.8%) with annual and 4.8% (CI, 4.4% to 5.2%) with biennial screening. Estimates were similar when screening began at age 50 years. A non-statistically significant increase in the proportion of late-stage cancers was observed with biennial compared with annual screening (absolute increases, 3.3 percentage points [CI, -1.1 to 7.8 percentage points] for women age 40 to 49 years and 2.3 percentage points [CI, -1.0 to 5.7 percentage points] for women age 50 to 59 years) among women with incident breast cancer. Few women underwent screening over the

  20. Cumulative impact of health deficits, social vulnerabilities, and protective factors on cognitive dynamics in late life: a multistate modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Armstrong, Joshua J; Mitnitski, Arnold; Andrew, Melissa K; Launer, Lenore J; White, Lon R; Rockwood, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    Many factors influence late-life cognitive changes, and evaluating their joint impact is challenging. Typical approaches focus on average decline and a small number of factors. We used multistate transition models and index variables to look at changes in cognition in relation to frailty (accumulation of health deficits), social vulnerability, and protective factors in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study (HAAS). The HAAS is a prospective cohort study of 3,845 men of Japanese descent, aged 71 to 93 years at baseline. Cognitive function was measured using the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI). Baseline index variables were constructed of health deficits (frailty), social vulnerabilities, and protective factors. The chances of improvement/stability/decline in cognitive function and death were simultaneously estimated using multistate transition modeling for 3- and 6-year transitions from baseline. On average, CASI scores declined by 5.3 points (standard deviation (SD) = 10.0) over 3 years and 9.5 points (SD = 13.9) over 6 years. After adjusting for education and age, baseline frailty was associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline at 3 years (β = 0.18, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.08 to 0.29) and 6 years (β = 0.40, 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.54). The social vulnerability index was associated with 3-year changes (β = 0.16, 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.23) and 6-year changes (β = 0.14, 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.24) in CASI scores. The protective index was associated with reductions in cognitive decline over the two intervals (3-year: β = -0.16, 95% CI, -0.24 to -0.09; 6-year: β = -0.21, 95% CI, -0.31 to -0.11,). Research on cognition in late life needs to consider overall health, the accumulation of protective factors, and the dynamics of cognitive change. Index variables and multistate transition models can enhance understanding of the multifactorial nature of late-life changes in cognition.

  1. Ground-Truthing Validation to Assess the Effect of Facility Locational Error on Cumulative Impacts Screening Tools

    EPA Science Inventory

    Over the past three decades, a number of researchers in the fields of environmental justice (EJ) and environmental public health have highlighted the existence of regional and local scale differences in exposure to air pollution, as well as calculated health risk and impacts of a...

  2. Ground-Truthing Validation to Assess the Effect of Facility Locational Error on Cumulative Impacts Screening Tools

    EPA Science Inventory

    Over the past three decades, a number of researchers in the fields of environmental justice (EJ) and environmental public health have highlighted the existence of regional and local scale differences in exposure to air pollution, as well as calculated health risk and impacts of a...

  3. Older adults’ transportation walking: a cross-sectional study on the cumulative influence of physical environmental factors

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The physical environment may play a crucial role in promoting older adults’ walking for transportation. However, previous studies on relationships between the physical environment and older adults’ physical activity behaviors have reported inconsistent findings. A possible explanation for these inconsistencies is the focus upon studying environmental factors separately rather than simultaneously. The current study aimed to investigate the cumulative influence of perceived favorable environmental factors on older adults’ walking for transportation. Additionally, the moderating effect of perceived distance to destinations on this relationship was studied. Methods The sample was comprised of 50,685 non-institutionalized older adults residing in Flanders (Belgium). Cross-sectional data on demographics, environmental perceptions and frequency of walking for transportation were collected by self-administered questionnaires in the period 2004-2010. Perceived distance to destinations was categorized into short, medium, and large distance to destinations. An environmental index (=a sum of favorable environmental factors, ranging from 0 to 7) was constructed to investigate the cumulative influence of favorable environmental factors. Multilevel logistic regression analyses were applied to predict probabilities of daily walking for transportation. Results For short distance to destinations, probability of daily walking for transportation was significantly higher when seven compared to three, four or five favorable environmental factors were present. For medium distance to destinations, probabilities significantly increased for an increase from zero to four favorable environmental factors. For large distance to destinations, no relationship between the environmental index and walking for transportation was observed. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the presence of multiple favorable environmental factors can motivate older adults to walk medium distances

  4. Older adults' transportation walking: a cross-sectional study on the cumulative influence of physical environmental factors.

    PubMed

    Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; Clarys, Peter; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Van Holle, Veerle; Verté, Dominique; De Witte, Nico; De Donder, Liesbeth; Buffel, Tine; Dury, Sarah; Deforche, Benedicte

    2013-08-14

    The physical environment may play a crucial role in promoting older adults' walking for transportation. However, previous studies on relationships between the physical environment and older adults' physical activity behaviors have reported inconsistent findings. A possible explanation for these inconsistencies is the focus upon studying environmental factors separately rather than simultaneously. The current study aimed to investigate the cumulative influence of perceived favorable environmental factors on older adults' walking for transportation. Additionally, the moderating effect of perceived distance to destinations on this relationship was studied. The sample was comprised of 50,685 non-institutionalized older adults residing in Flanders (Belgium). Cross-sectional data on demographics, environmental perceptions and frequency of walking for transportation were collected by self-administered questionnaires in the period 2004-2010. Perceived distance to destinations was categorized into short, medium, and large distance to destinations. An environmental index (=a sum of favorable environmental factors, ranging from 0 to 7) was constructed to investigate the cumulative influence of favorable environmental factors. Multilevel logistic regression analyses were applied to predict probabilities of daily walking for transportation. For short distance to destinations, probability of daily walking for transportation was significantly higher when seven compared to three, four or five favorable environmental factors were present. For medium distance to destinations, probabilities significantly increased for an increase from zero to four favorable environmental factors. For large distance to destinations, no relationship between the environmental index and walking for transportation was observed. Our findings suggest that the presence of multiple favorable environmental factors can motivate older adults to walk medium distances to facilities. Future research should focus

  5. Summary of studies supporting cumulative effects analysis of upper Yellowstone River channel modifications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Auble, Gregor T.; Bowen, Zachary H.; Bovee, Ken D.; Farmer, Adrian H.; Sexton, Natalie R.; Waddle, Terry J.

    2004-01-01

    The largest portion of the document is an Appendix that summarizes each of the individual scientific studies in terms of scope and methods, findings, principal variables, and metrics used in the study or suggested by the study results, and important needs for further study.

  6. Cumulative impact of a clover cover crop on the persistence and efficacy of Beauveria bassiana in suppressing the pecan weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

    PubMed

    Shapiro-Ilan, David I; Gardner, Wayne A; Wells, Lenny; Wood, Bruce W

    2012-04-01

    The pecan weevil, Curculio caryae (Horn), is a key pest of pecan. Endemic levels of the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana (Balsamo) Vuillemin can occur in pecan orchards and contribute to natural control of C. caryae. Commercial formulations of the fungus can also be applied for suppression of C. caryae. We hypothesized that a clover cover crop enhances B. bassiana efficacy and persistence (e.g., by protecting the fungus against abiotic environmental stresses). The hypothesis was tested by conducting field trials in a pecan orchard in Byron, GA, in 2009 and 2010. The study included four treatments arranged in a factorial with two levels of fungus (endemic fungus only, and application of a commercial B. bassiana product), and two levels of clover (white clover, Trifolium repens L., and no clover). Fungal persistence was measured by determining the number of CFUs per gram of soil over time (during 42 d postapplication of B. bassiana in 2009 and 29 d in 2010). Efficacy was measured by capturing naturally emerging C. caryae and subsequently determining mortality and mycosis (over 24 d in 2009 and 17 d in 2010). In 2009, greater prevalence of B. bassiana conidia was detected in plots receiving fungal applications compared with no fungus applications, and no clear effect of clover was observed in plots receiving B. bassiana applications in either year. In 2010, B. bassiana prevalence in the endemic fungus plus clover treatment was higher than fungus without clover, and was similar to plots receiving additional B. bassiana applications. Given that we observed enhanced persistence of endemic B. bassiana in 2010 but not 2009, the impact of clover appears to be a cumulative effect. Mortality of C. caryae (averaged over the sampling periods) ranged between 68-74% in plots receiving B. bassiana applications and 51-56% in plots with endemic fungus only. C. caryae mortality and mycosis data also provided evidence that endemic B. bassiana efficacy was enhanced by clover

  7. Cumulative impact of GM herbicide-tolerant cropping on arable plants assessed through species-based and functional taxonomies.

    PubMed

    Squire, Geoffrey R; Hawes, Cathy; Begg, Graham S; Young, Mark W

    2009-01-01

    In a gradualist approach to the introduction of crop biotechnology, the findings of experimentation at one scale are used to predict the outcome of moving to a higher scale of deployment. Movement through scales had occurred for certain genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops in the UK as far as large-scale field trials. However, the land area occupied by these trials was still <1% of the area occupied by the respective non-GM crops. Some means is needed to predict the direction and size of the effect of increasing the area of GMHT cropping on ecological variables such as the diversity among species and trophic interactions. Species-accumulation curves are examined here as a method of indicating regional-scale impacts on botanical diversity from multiple field experiments. Data were used from experiments on the effect of (GMHT) crops and non-GM, or conventional, comparators in fields sown with four crop types (beet, maize, spring and winter oilseed rape) at a total of 250 sites in the UK between 2000 and 2003. Indices of biodiversity were measured in a split-field design comparing GMHT with the farmers' usual weed management. In the original analyses based on the means at site level, effects were detected on the mass of weeds in the three spring crops and the proportion of broadleaf and grass weeds in winter oilseed rape, but not on indices of plant species diversity. To explore the links between site means and total taxa, accumulation curves were constructed based on the number of plant species (a pool of around 250 species in total) and the number of plant functional types (24), inferred from the general life-history characteristics of a species. Species accumulation differed between GMHT and conventional treatments in direction and size, depending on the type of crop and its conventional management. Differences were mostly in the asymptote of the curve, indicative of the maximum number of species found in a treatment, rather than the steepness of

  8. Cumulative Resting Heart Rate Exposure and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: Results from the Kailuan Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Quanhui; Li, Haibin; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Yu, Junxing; Luo, Yanxia; Chen, Shuohua; Tao, Lixin; Li, Yuqing; Li, Aiping; Guo, Xiuhua; Wu, Shouling

    2017-01-01

    The relationship between cumulative exposure to resting heart rate (cumRHR) and mortality remain unclear in the general population. In the Kailuan cohort study, resting heart rate (RHR) was repeatedly measured at baseline and at years 2 and 4 by electrocardiogram among 47,311 adults aged 48.70 ± 11.68. The cumRHR was defined as the summed average RHR between two consecutive examinations multiplied by the time interval between with two examinations [(beats/min) * year]. A higher RHR was defined as ≥80 beats/min, and the number of visits with a higher RHR was counted. During a median of 4.06 years of follow-up, a total of 1,025 participants died. After adjusting for major traditional cardiovascular risk factors and baseline RHR, the hazard ratio for the highest versus lowest quartile of cumRHR was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.07–1.81) for all-cause mortality. Each 1-SD increment in cumRHR was associated with a 37% (HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.23–1.52) increased risk of death and displayed a J-shaped relationship. Compared with no exposure, adults who had a higher RHR at all 3 study visits were associated with a 1.86-fold higher risk (95% CI: 1.33–2.61) of mortality. In summary, cumulative exposure to higher RHR is independently associated with an increased risk of mortality. PMID:28067310

  9. It's getting hot in here…and dry: Intercomparison of cumulative rain collectors used in stable isotope studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michelsen, Nils; Roßmann, Yasmin; Bauer, Ingo; Schulz, Stephan; Schüth, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Many isotope studies require data on the stable isotope signature (δ2H, δ18O) of precipitation. Although isotope analyzers recently became field-deployable, allowing near-real time measurements, it is still common to collect cumulative rain samples on a monthly basis. For this purpose, various rain collectors are available (IAEA 2014), but a comprehensive intercomparison of these samplers and their capacity to reduce evaporation is missing in the published literature. In this study, we tested selected established (IAEA 2014) and new samplers (floating ball-based, float-based). They were partially filled with water of known isotopic composition and placed in a modified laboratory oven featuring dry conditions and a diurnal temperature regime (<7% relative humidity, 22-45°C). To evaluate evaporation effects, we determined mass losses and isotopic shifts over 32 days on a daily and four-day basis, respectively. Although the classic paraffin oil-based collector exhibited the smallest mass losses, the tube-dip-in-water collector with pressure equilibration tube (Gröning et al. 2012) showed the best overall performance. Under the prevailing conditions, this design represents a good compromise. It provides an adequate evaporation reduction, resulting in negligible isotopic shifts, and the obtained samples are not prone to contamination with oil. References: Gröning, M., Lutz, H.O., Roller-Lutz, Z., Kralik, M., Gourcy, L., & Pöltenstein, L. (2012): A simple rain collector preventing water re-evaporation dedicated for δ18O and δ2H analysis of cumulative precipitation samples. Journal of Hydrology, 448-449, 195-200. IAEA (2014): IAEA/GNIP precipitation sampling guide.

  10. Higher Order Cumulant Studies of Ocean Surface Random Fields from Satellite Altimeter Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, B.

    1996-01-01

    Higher order statistics, especially 2nd order statistics, have been used to study ocean processes for many years in the past, and occupy an appreciable part of the research literature on physical oceanography. They in turn form part of a much larger field of study in statistical fluid mechanics.

  11. Lead-Related Genetic Loci, Cumulative Lead Exposure and Incident Coronary Heart Disease: The Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Weisskopf, Marc G.; Sparrow, David; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard; Park, Sung Kyun

    2016-01-01

    Background Cumulative exposure to lead is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Polymorphisms in the δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD), hemochromatosis (HFE), heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX1), vitamin D receptor (VDR), glutathione S-transferase (GST) supergene family (GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1), apolipoprotein E (APOE),angiotensin II receptor-1 (AGTR1) and angiotensinogen (AGT) genes, are believed to alter toxicokinetics and/or toxicodynamics of lead. Objectives We assessed possible effect modification by genetic polymorphisms in ALAD, HFE, HMOX1, VDR, GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1, APOE, AGTR1 and AGT individually and as the genetic risk score (GRS) on the association between cumulative lead exposure and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Methods We used K-shell-X-ray fluorescence to measure bone lead levels. GRS was calculated on the basis of 22 lead-related loci. We constructed Cox proportional hazard models to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CHD. We applied inverse probability weighting to account for potential selection bias due to recruitment into the bone lead sub-study. Results Significant effect modification was found by VDR, HMOX1, GSTP1, APOE, and AGT genetic polymorphisms when evaluated individually. Further, the bone lead-CHD associations became larger as GRS increases. After adjusting for potential confounders, a HR of CHD was 2.27 (95%CI: 1.50–3.42) with 2-fold increase in patella lead levels, among participants in the top tertile of GRS. We also detected an increasing trend in HRs across tertiles of GRS (p-trend = 0.0063). Conclusions Our findings suggest that lead-related loci as a whole may play an important role in susceptibility to lead-related CHD risk. These findings need to be validated in a separate cohort containing bone lead, lead-related genetic loci and incident CHD data. PMID:27584680

  12. Cumulative exposure to high-strain and active jobs as predictors of cognitive function: the Whitehall II study

    PubMed Central

    Elovainio, Marko; Ferrie, Jane E.; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Gimeno, David; De Vogli, Roberto; Shipley, Martin J.; Vahtera, Jussi; Brunner, Eric J.; Marmot, Michael G.; Kivimaki, Mika

    2009-01-01

    Objectives A high strain job (a combination of high job demands and low job control) is expected to increase the risk of health problems, whereas an active job (high demands and high control) can be hypothesized to be associated with a greater capacity to learn. We tested associations between high strain and active jobs and cognitive function in middle-aged men and women. Methods Data on 4146 British civil servants (2,989 men and 1,157 women) aged 35–55 years at baseline came from the Whitehall II study. Cumulative exposure to both high strain and active jobs was assessed at Phases 1 (1985–1988), 2 (1989–1990) and 3 (1991–1993). Cognitive performance was assessed at Phases 5 (1997–1999) and 7 (2003–2004) using the following tests: verbal memory, inductive reasoning (Alice Heim), verbal meaning (Mill Hill), phonemic and semantic fluency. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and employment grade. Results Longer exposure to high job strain and shorter exposure to active jobs were associated with lower scores in most of the cognitive performance tests. However, these associations disappeared on adjustment for employment grade. Phonemic fluency was an exception to this pattern. Associations between exposure to an active job and phonemic fluency at both follow-up phases were robust to adjustment for employment grade. However, there was no association between exposure to active jobs and change in phonemic fluency score between the follow-up phases after adjustment for employment grade. Conclusions In these data associations between cumulative exposure to high strain or active jobs and cognition are largely explained by socioeconomic position. PMID:18805883

  13. Body mass index and risk of non-melanoma skin cancer: cumulative evidence from prospective studies

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Daijun; Wu, Jun; Luo, Gaoxing

    2016-01-01

    Prospective epidemiologic studies that investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) yielded inconsistent findings. A dose-response meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively summarize the evidence. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for relevant studies. Study-specific relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for an increase in BMI of 5 kg/m2 was computed with the generalized least squares trend estimation, and these risk estimates were combined with the random-effects model. Nine publications were included in the final analyses, consisting of 18 independent cohorts with 22 risk estimates (971,795 participants and 50,561 NMSC cases). Results of the dose-response analyses showed a nonlinear inverse relationship between BMI and NMSC (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.85–0.91, I2 = 71.2%, P-nonlinearity <0.001), which persisted when limiting to the studies with adjustment for important potential confounders including sun exposure and sensitivity factors. The risk estimates were very similar for squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma. Sex appeared a source of heterogeneity (P-difference = 0.06), with a weaker, but still significant inverse association in men than in women. This dose-response meta-analysis suggests a nonlinear inverse association between BMI and NMSC. PMID:27898109

  14. Teaching Research through Field Studies: A Cumulative Opportunity for Teaching Methodology to Human Geography Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Panelli, Ruth; Welch, Richard V.

    2005-01-01

    Notwithstanding its iconic status within geography, the debate continues about how fieldwork should be taught to undergraduate students. The authors engage with this debate and argue that field studies should follow the teaching of research methodology. In this paper they review relevant literature on the place of fieldwork in geography training,…

  15. Cumulative Vulnerability: A Case Study on intrafamilial violence, Drug Addiction and Adolescent Pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Miura, Paula Orchiucci; Passarini, Gislaine Martins Ricardo; Ferreira, Loraine Seixas; Paixão, Rui Alexandre Paquete; Tardivo, Leila Salomão de La Plata Cury; Barrientos, Dora Mariela Salcedo

    2014-12-01

    A pregnant adolescent's vulnerability increases when she is a victim of intrafamilial violence and drug addiction, which cause physical and biopsychosocial damage to the mother and her baby. Objective Present and analyze the case of an adolescent who is addicted to drugs, pregnant and the victim of lifelong intrafamilial violence. Method A case study based on a semi-structured interview conducted in the Obstetrics Emergency Unit at the Teaching Hospital of the University of São Paulo. The data were interpreted and analyzed using Content Analysis. Results intrafamilial violence experienced at the beginning of the adolescent's early relationships seriously affected her emotional maturity, triggering the development of psychopathologies and leaving her more susceptible to the use and abuse of alcohol and other drugs. The adolescent is repeating her history with her daughter, reproducing the cycle of violence. Conclusion Adolescent pregnancy combined with intrafamilial violence and drug addiction and multiplies the adolescent's psychosocial vulnerability increased the adolescent's vulnerability.

  16. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

    1990-01-01

    Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

  17. Labeling and Cumulative Disadvantage: The Impact of Formal Police Intervention on Life Chances and Crime during Emerging Adulthood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lopes, Giza; Krohn, Marvin D.; Lizotte, Alan J.; Schmidt, Nicole M.; Vasquez, Bob Edward; Bernburg, Jon Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    Research in labeling theory has been revived recently, particularly in relation to the effect of labeling on critical noncriminal outcomes that potentially exacerbate involvement in crime. This study partakes in that revitalization by examining direct and indirect effects of police intervention in the lives of adolescents who were followed into…

  18. Progressive and cumulative fabric effects of multiple hydroentangling impacts at different water pressures on greige cotton substrate

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A practical study was conducted to determine the effects of the hydroentangling jet strip’s orifice size and the hydroentangling water pressure on the energy expended and the properties of the resulting nonwoven fabrics produced on a commercial-grade hydro-entanglement (HE) system, using greige cott...

  19. Cumulative risk assessment of phthalates associated with birth outcomes in pregnant Chinese women: A prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Gao, Hui; Xu, Yuan-Yuan; Huang, Kun; Ge, Xing; Zhang, Yun-Wei; Yao, Hui-Yuan; Xu, Ye-Qing; Yan, Shuang-Qin; Jin, Zhong-Xiu; Sheng, Jie; Zhu, Peng; Hao, Jia-Hu; Tao, Fang-Biao

    2017-03-01

    A prospective cohort study of a Chinese population of mother-neonate pairs (n = 3103) was conducted to investigate the relationship between the cumulative hazard index (HI) of combined diethyl phthalate (DEP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), dibenzyl phthalate (BBzP) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) exposure and birth outcomes. The estimated HI for phthalates was based on phthalate metabolite concentrations in urine collected between 5th and 14th gestational weeks. The median HI values according to the European Food Safety Authority tolerable daily intake (HITDI) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reference dose (HIRfD) were 0.358 and 0.187, respectively. A total of 16.3% and 1.9% of the women exhibited HITDI and HIRfD exceeding the value of one, respectively. In unadjusted models, the categories (low < P25, median P25-P50, high > P75) of HITDI were associated with decreased birth weight (β = -26.34 g, p = 0.021) and head circumference (β = -0.09 cm, p = 0.029), whereas those for HIRfD were negatively associated with birth weight (β = -31.74 g, p = 0.005), birth length (β = -0.11 cm, p = 0.032), head circumference (β = -0.13 cm, p = 0.003) and chest circumference (β = -0.10 cm, p = 0.021) in all neonates. Adjustment for potential confounders revealed that HIRfD was inversely associated with head circumference (β = -0.10 cm, p = 0.020). Stratification by gender indicated that HIRfD was associated with decreased birth length (β = -0.17 cm, p = 0.041) in infant boys and HITDI was associated with decreased birth weight (β = -33.12 g, p = 0.036) and head circumference (β = -0.13 cm, p = 0.027) in girls. This is the first study on the cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposures in pregnant Chinese women. We found that the HI values of multiple phthalate co-exposure were sex-specifically related to birth outcomes.

  20. Cumulative lead exposure is associated with reduced olfactory recognition performance in elderly men: the Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Grashow, Rachel; Sparrow, David; Hu, Howard; Weisskopf, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Olfactory dysfunction has been identified as an early warning sign for Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, dementia and more. A few occupational and environmental exposures have also been associated with reduced olfactory function, although the effects of long term environmental exposure to lead on olfactory dysfunction have not been explored. Here we performed olfactory recognition testing in elderly men in a community-dwelling cohort and examined the association with cumulative lead exposure, as assessed by lead in tibial and patellar bone. Methods Olfactory recognition was measured in 165 men from the Normative Aging Study (NAS) who had previously taken part in bone lead measurements using K-X-Ray fluorescence (KXRF). Olfactory recognition was measured using the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT). Associations between olfactory recognition, global cognition and cumulative lead exposure were estimated using linear regression, with additional adjustment for age, smoking, and functional polymorphism status for hemochromatosis (HFE), transferrin (TfC2), glutathione-s-transferase Pi1 (GSTP1) and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes. Sensitivity analyses explored olfactory recognition in men with high global cognitive function as measured using the Mini-Mental Status Exam (MMSE). Results The average age of the NAS participants at the time of olfactory recognition testing was 80.3 (standard deviation or SD = 5.7) years. Mean tibia lead was 16.3 (SD = 12.0) μg/g bone, mean patella lead was 22.4 (SD = 14.4) μg/g bone, and mean UPSIT score was 26.9 out of 40 (SD = 7.0). Consistent with previous findings, age at olfaction testing was negatively associated with UPSIT score. Tibia (but not patella) bone lead was negatively associated with olfaction recognition (per 15 μg/g tibia lead: β = −1.57; 95% CI: −2.93, −0.22; p = 0.02) in models adjusted for smoking and age. Additional adjustment for education did not

  1. Cumulative Carbon and Anthropocene Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, D.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Solomon, S.

    2010-12-01

    In this presentation we will highlight a few of the key findings of the recently completed National Research Council Study Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations and Impacts over Decades to Millennia (NRC, 2010), and discuss their implications for planetary stewardship. A synthesis of published results shows that the single number which most characterizes the magnitude of the human imprint on the climate of the coming millennia is the net amount of carbon released as CO2 by fossil fuel burning and land use changes during the time over which humanity continues such activities. Details of emissions scenarios are not important; rather it is the net carbon released by the time the emissions have been brought to essentially zero that controls long-term climate changes. In this report, we estimate that global temperatures increase by about 1 degree for approximately every 570 Pg of carbon emitted. Each degree of global temperature change is associated with quantifiable impacts on human and natural systems, including loss of arctic sea ice, decreased productivity of several major food crops, decreased precipitation in dry regions, and increases in area burnt by wildfire. Furthermore, the long timescale of temperature changes due to cumulative carbon emissions entails a lock-in to many centuries of continued sea-level rise, as well as the possibility of substantial contributions to sea-level rise from both Greenland and the West-Antarctic ice sheet. Reductions in methane or other short-lived greenhouse gas emissions can be of benefit in mitigating the near term climate changes, but CO2 is unique among major greenhouse gases in its ability to disrupt climate on multi-millennial time scales. This implies a need for correspondingly special treatment of this gas in emissions control protocols, for example by setting targets for allowable cumulative carbon emissions over time. The authoring committee was composed of Susan Solomon, Chair, David Battisti, Scott

  2. Cumulative Risk, Maternal Responsiveness, and Allostatic Load among Young Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Gary W.; Kim, Pilyoung; Ting, Albert H.; Tesher, Harris B.; Shannis, Dana

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of cumulative risk exposure in concert with maternal responsiveness on physiological indicators of chronic stress in children and youth. Middle-school children exposed to greater accumulated psychosocial (e.g., family turmoil, poverty) and physical (e.g., crowding, substandard housing) risk…

  3. Cumulative Risk, Maternal Responsiveness, and Allostatic Load among Young Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Gary W.; Kim, Pilyoung; Ting, Albert H.; Tesher, Harris B.; Shannis, Dana

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of cumulative risk exposure in concert with maternal responsiveness on physiological indicators of chronic stress in children and youth. Middle-school children exposed to greater accumulated psychosocial (e.g., family turmoil, poverty) and physical (e.g., crowding, substandard housing) risk…

  4. Cumulative impact of common genetic variants and other risk factors on colorectal cancer risk in 42,103 individuals

    PubMed Central

    Dunlop, Malcolm G.; Tenesa, Albert; Farrington, Susan M.; Ballereau, Stephane; Brewster, David H.; Pharoah, Paul DP.; Schafmayer, Clemens; Hampe, Jochen; Völzke, Henry; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael; Brenner, Hermann; von Holst, Susanna; Picelli, Simone; Lindblom, Annika; Jenkins, Mark A.; Hopper, John L.; Casey, Graham; Duggan, David; Newcomb, Polly; Abulí, Anna; Bessa, Xavier; Ruiz-Ponte, Clara; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Niittymäki, Iina; Tuupanen, Sari; Karhu, Auli; Aaltonen, Lauri; Zanke, Brent W.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Gallinger, Steven; Barclay, Ella; Martin, Lynn; Gorman, Maggie; Carvajal-Carmona, Luis; Walther, Axel; Kerr, David; Lubbe, Steven; Broderick, Peter; Chandler, Ian; Pittman, Alan; Penegar, Steven; Campbell, Harry; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data. Design Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks. Results Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk. Conclusion We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it

  5. Cumulative Success Rate of Short and Ultrashort Implants Supporting Single Crowns in the Posterior Maxilla: A 3-Year Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Lombardo, Giorgio; Pighi, Jacopo; Marincola, Mauro; Nocini, Pier Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Aim To determine cumulative success rate (CSR) of short and ultrashort implants in the posterior maxilla restored with single crowns. Patients and Methods We performed a retrospective study in 65 patients with 139 implants. 46 were ultrashort and 93 short. Implants were placed with a staged approach and restored with single crowns. Success rate, clinical and radiographic outcomes, and crown-to-implant ratio (CIR) were assessed after three years. Statistical analysis was performed by descriptive and inferential statistics. A log-binomial regression model where the main outcome was implant success was achieved. Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals were reported. Analyses were performed with Stata 13.2 for Windows. Results 61.54% of patients were female and mean overall age was 51.9 ± 11.08 years old. Overall CSR was 97.1% (95% CI: 92.4–98.9): 97.9 and 95.1% for short and ultrashort, respectively (P value: 0.33). Four implants failed. Covariates were not associated with CSR (P value > 0.05). Regression model showed coefficients correlated with implant success for ultrashort implants (0.87) and most of covariates but none were statistically significant (P values > 0.05). Conclusions Our results suggest that short and ultrashort implants may be successfully placed and restored with single crowns in the resorbed maxillary molar region. PMID:28751913

  6. Six years' experience in ovum donation using vitrified oocytes: report of cumulative outcomes, impact of storage time, and development of a predictive model for oocyte survival rate.

    PubMed

    Cobo, Ana; Garrido, Nicolás; Pellicer, Antonio; Remohí, José

    2015-12-01

    To describe the clinical outcomes achieved after 6 years' experience in ovum donation conducted with vitrified oocytes; to attempt to find predictors of survival; and to provide information about the probability of having a baby according to the number of oocytes consumed. Retrospective, observational study. Private university-affiliated in vitro fertilization center. Recipients of vitrified oocytes (January 2007-March 2013), including all the warming procedures (n = 3,610) and all the donations made during the same period (n = 3,467). None. Survival rate per warming procedure, cumulative delivery rates (CDR) per single donation cycle, oocyte-to-baby rate, and cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) per oocyte consumed. Oocyte survival rate was 90.4%. It was not possible to develop a predictive model for survival owing to the lack of prognostic value of the studied variables. Implantation, clinical, and ongoing pregnancy rates per donation cycle were 39.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.8-40.5), 48.4% (95% CI, 46.7-50.1), and 39.9% (95% CI, 38.3-41.5), respectively. Statistical differences were found when comparing blastocysts versus day 3 ETs (42.5%; 95% CI, 40.4-45.2 vs. 37.5%; 95% CI, 35.3-39.7 ongoing pregnancy rate). The CDR/donation cycle, including cryotransfers, was 78.8% (95% CI, 73.5-84.1). The oocyte-to-baby rate was 6.5%. CLBR increased progressively according to the number of oocytes consumed. We provide detailed information about the high efficiency of using vitrified/warmed oocytes. There is currently no way of estimating donors' oocytes survival when considering baseline characteristics, storage time, or controlled ovarian stimulation parameters. The probability of achieving a baby using vitrified oocytes increases progressively with the number of oocytes consumed. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. UBIQUITOUS POLLUTANTS FROM CUMULATIVE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPS) as environmental pollutants is a multifaceted issue whose scope continues to become better delineated since the escalation of concerted attention beginning in the 1980s. PPCPs typically occur as trace environmental pollutants (primarily in surface but also in ground waters) as a result of their widespread, continuous, combined usage in a broad range of human and veterinary therapeutic activities and practices. With respect to the risk-assessment paradigm, the growing body of published work has focused primarily on the origin and occurrence of these substances. Comparatively less is known about human and ecological exposure, and even less about the known or even potential hazards associated with exposure to these anthropogenic substances, many of which are highly bioactive. The continually growing, worldwide importance of freshwater resources underscores the need for ensuring that any aggregate or cumulative impacts on water supplies and resultant potential for human or ecological exposure be minimized. This has prompted the more recent investigations on waste treatment processes for one of the major sources of environmental disposition, namely sewage. Despite the paucity of health effects data for long-term, simultaneous exposure to multiple xenobiotics (particularly PPCPS) at low doses (a major toxicological issue that can be described by the

  8. Summary and synthesis: Cumulative impacts

    Treesearch

    Raymond M. Rice; Neil H. Berg

    1987-01-01

    Although the title of our plenary session speaks generally of ""development"", virtually all of our discussion (and that in the other two plenary sessions) dealt with the effect of forest practices. That emphasis is appropriate. Seventy percent of the State's utilizable streamflow comes from commercial forest lands. An additional 25 percent...

  9. Environmentally-Relevant Mixtures in Cumulative Assessments: An Acute Study of Toxicokinetics and Effects on Motor Activity in Rats Exposed to a Mixture of Pyrethroids

    EPA Science Inventory

    Due to extensive use, human exposure to multiple pyrethroid insecticides occurs frequently. Studies of pyrethroid neurotoxicity suggest a common mode of toxicity and that pyrethroids should be considered cumulatively to model risk. The objective of this work was to use a pyrethro...

  10. Environmentally-Relevant Mixtures in Cumulative Assessments: An Acute Study of Toxicokinetics and Effects on Motor Activity in Rats Exposed to a Mixture of Pyrethroids

    EPA Science Inventory

    Due to extensive use, human exposure to multiple pyrethroid insecticides occurs frequently. Studies of pyrethroid neurotoxicity suggest a common mode of toxicity and that pyrethroids should be considered cumulatively to model risk. The objective of this work was to use a pyrethro...

  11. Cumulative effects of air pollution on public health.

    PubMed

    Xia, Yingcun; Tong, Howell

    2006-10-30

    Cumulative effect is an important way through which the pollutants affect public health. However, few existing dynamical models are well enough understood and documented to detect or quantify the cumulative effects and to answer pertinent questions posed by the World Health Organization (WHO): 'Is there a threshold below which no effects of the pollutants on health are expected to occur in all people?' and 'What averaging period (time pattern) is the most relevant from the point of view of health?'. Using a new semi-parametric time series modelling approach, which incorporates non-linearity and latent cumulative variables, we show that the cumulative effects on health due to continual exposure to environmental pollutants can be very serious even at levels below the national ambient air quality standards of America (NAAQS). The situation is especially worrying for chronic sufferers. Our study suggests that different pollutants may require different cumulative periods (on average) to impact on health but they share a similar functional form in respect of their impact. We also suggest some possible revision of the ambient air quality standards.

  12. Cumulative reaction probabilities and transition state properties: a study of the F + H2 reaction and its deuterated isotopic variants.

    PubMed

    Aoiz, F J; Herrero, V J; Sáez Rábanos, V

    2008-07-14

    A comparative quantum mechanical (QM) and quasiclassical trajectory (QCT) study of the cumulative reaction probabilities (CRPs) is presented in this work for the F + H(2) reaction and its isotopic variants for low values of the total angular momentum J. The agreement between the two sets of calculations is very good with the exception of some features whose origin is genuinely QM. The agreement also extends to the CRP resolved in the helicity quantum number k. The most remarkable feature is the steplike structure, which becomes clearly distinct when the CRPs are resolved in odd and even rotational states j. The analysis of these steps shows that each successive increment is due to the opening of the consecutive rovibrational states of the H(2) or D(2) molecule, which, in this case, nearly coincide with those of the transition state. Moreover, the height of each step reflects the number of helicity states compatible with a given J and j values, thus indicating that the various helicity states for a specific j have basically the same contribution to the CRPs at a given total energy. As a consequence, the dependence with k of the reactivity is practically negligible, suggesting very small steric restrictions for any possible orientation of the reactants. This behavior is in marked contrast to that found in the D + H(2) reaction, wherein a strong k dependence was found in the threshold and magnitude of the CRP. The advantages of a combined QCT and QM approaches to the study of CRPs are emphasized in this work.

  13. Lifetime cumulative risk factors predict cardiovascular disease mortality in a 50-year follow-up study in Finland.

    PubMed

    Reinikainen, Jaakko; Laatikainen, Tiina; Karvanen, Juha; Tolonen, Hanna

    2015-02-01

    Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking are known predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Less is known about the effect of lifetime accumulation and changes of risk factors over time as predictors of CVD mortality, especially in very long follow-up studies. Data from the Finnish cohorts of the Seven Countries Study were used. The baseline examination was in 1959 and seven re-examinations were carried out at approximately 5-year intervals. Cohorts were followed up for mortality until the end of 2011. Time-dependent Cox models with regular time-updated risk factors, time-dependent averages of risk factors and latest changes in risk factors, using smoothing splines to discover nonlinear effects, were used to analyse the predictive effect of risk factors for CVD mortality. A model using cumulative risk factors, modelled as the individual-level averages of several risk factor measurements over time, predicted CVD mortality better than a model using the most recent measurement information. This difference seemed to be most prominent for systolic blood pressure. U-shaped effects of the original predictors can be explained by partitioning a risk factor effect between the recent level and the change trajectory. The change in body mass index predicted the risk although body mass index itself did not. The lifetime accumulation of risk factors and the observed changes in risk factor levels over time are strong predictors of CVD mortality. It is important to investigate different ways of using the longitudinal risk factor measurements to take full advantage of them. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  14. PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETICS/PHARMACODYNAMIC MODELING AND CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: CASE STUDY FOR THE N-METHYL CARBMATE PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 [PL 104-170: 110 STAT. 1513] requires EPA to consider potential cumulative human health risks resulting from aggregate exposure to pesticide chemicals acting through a common mechanism of toxicity. This includes all anticipated dietary e...

  15. PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETICS/PHARMACODYNAMIC MODELING AND CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: CASE STUDY FOR THE N-METHYL CARBMATE PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 [PL 104-170: 110 STAT. 1513] requires EPA to consider potential cumulative human health risks resulting from aggregate exposure to pesticide chemicals acting through a common mechanism of toxicity. This includes all anticipated dietary e...

  16. Cumulative watershed effects: Can they be measured? What have we learned from the Caspar Creek studies in northern California?

    Treesearch

    R. M. Rice

    1991-01-01

    Cumulative Watershed Effects (CWEs) may be additive or synergistic. Additive CWEs are the accumulation downstream of the effects of various activities. Their existence is inevitable. However, their magnitude is often difficult to measure. The amount of sediment, for example, has considerable natural variation which may mask the CWEs caused by road construction or...

  17. Impact of a Ninth-Grade Transition Program on Cumulative GPAs and Credits, Ninth-Grade Dropout Rates, and Student Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buhrman, B. R.

    2010-01-01

    Concerned educators have been implementing ninth-grade transition programs to help freshmen adjust to the demands in high school and to reduce ninth-grade failure rates. The purpose of this quasi-experimental quantitative study was to investigate the impact of a ninth-grade transition program. The research questions addressed impact on cumulative…

  18. Impact of a Ninth-Grade Transition Program on Cumulative GPAs and Credits, Ninth-Grade Dropout Rates, and Student Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buhrman, B. R.

    2010-01-01

    Concerned educators have been implementing ninth-grade transition programs to help freshmen adjust to the demands in high school and to reduce ninth-grade failure rates. The purpose of this quasi-experimental quantitative study was to investigate the impact of a ninth-grade transition program. The research questions addressed impact on cumulative…

  19. Deep Submarine Tailings Disposal (DSTP) the Proposed Use of Submarine Canyons and Artificial Turbidity Currents for the Disposal of Mine Waste: Current Practice, Future Plans, and Cumulative Impacts.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, R.; Moran, R.

    2015-12-01

    The wastes from mining operations ( tailings) have been disposed of in the fluvial environment (riverine disposal) and in nearshore marine environments for much of the last century. The scale of modern mining operations has led to increasing use of steep slopes and submarine canyons for deposition of these wastes at depths of 2000m - 4000m. Current mine disposal operations in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea which use Deep Sea Tailings Placement (DSTP) release volumes between 5000 tpd and 160,000 tpd. Planning is underway by the"Consortium," an industry and government group in Chile which would deposit mine waste of 1M tpd into the Humbolt Current Large Marine Ecosystem (HCLME) which provides nearly 20% of the fish biomass harvested on a sustainable basis worldwide. Underwater pipelines discharge tailings as a slurry to create a continuous artificial turbidity current with particle size distribtions (PSD's) ranging from sand to clay sized fractions. Potential problems arise from benthic smothering, angular particulate uptake by benthic organisms, and from the bioaccumulation of a complex of heavy metals by both benthic and pelagic species. While much is known about the binding of copper and other toxic heavy metals in a reducing environment, little has been done to consider the implications of ocean dumping where 1% of tailings discharged may consist of unrecovered heavy metals. Synergistic cumulative impacts to just the HCLME from the dumping of the more than 3M tpy of reactive metals in these tailings sediments remains unknown and poses substantial risks. DSTP assumes a stable deep sea depositional environment but upwelling currents and plume shear may make this hard to accomplish.

  20. Radiation dose from common radiological investigations and cumulative exposure in children with cystic fibrosis: an observational study from a single UK centre.

    PubMed

    Ward, Rebecca; Carroll, William D; Cunningham, Paula; Ho, Sheng-Ang; Jones, Mary; Lenney, Warren; Thompson, David; Gilchrist, Francis J

    2017-08-21

    Cumulative radiation exposure is associated with increased risk of malignancy. This is important in cystic fibrosis (CF) as frequent imaging is required to monitor disease progression and diagnose complications. Previous estimates of cumulative radiation are outdated as the imaging was performed on older equipment likely to deliver higher radiation. Our objectives were to determine the radiation dose delivered to children during common radiological investigations using modern equipment and to identify the number of such investigations performed in a cohort of children with CF to calculate their cumulative radiation exposure. Data including age at investigation and radiation exposure measured as estimated effective dose (EED) were collected on 2827 radiological studies performed on children at one UK paediatric centre. These were combined with the details of all radiological investigations performed on 65 children with CF attending the same centre to enable calculation of each child's cumulative radiation exposure. The mean EED for the common radiological investigations varied according to age. The range was 0.01-0.02 mSv for chest X-rays, 0.03-0.11 mSv for abdominal X-rays, 0.57-1.69 mSv for CT chest, 2.9-3.9 mSv for abdominal and pelvic CT, 0.20-0.21 mSv for sinus CT and 0.15-0.52 mSv for fluoroscopy-guided procedures. The mean EED was three to five times higher for helical compared with axial chest CT scans. The mean annual cumulative EED for our cohort of children with CF was 0.15 mSv/year with an estimated cumulative paediatric lifetime EED (0-18 years) of 3.5 mSv. This study provides up-to-date estimations of the radiation exposure when using common radiological investigations. These doses and the estimates of cumulative radiation exposure in children with CF are lower than previously reported. This reflects the reduced EED associated with modern equipment and the use of age-specific scanning protocols. © Article author(s) (or their employer

  1. Dose-Response Relationship between Cumulative Occupational Lead Exposure and the Associated Health Damages: A 20-Year Cohort Study of a Smelter in China

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yue; Gu, Jun-Ming; Huang, Yun; Duan, Yan-Ying; Huang, Rui-Xue; Hu, Jian-An

    2016-01-01

    Long-term airborne lead exposure, even below official occupational limits, has been found to cause lead poisoning at higher frequencies than expected, which suggests that China’s existing occupational exposure limits should be reexamined. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1832 smelting workers from 1988 to 2008 in China. These were individuals who entered the plant and came into continuous contact with lead at work for longer than 3 months. The dose-response relationship between occupational cumulative lead exposure and lead poisoning, abnormal blood lead, urinary lead and erythrocyte zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) were analyzed and the benchmark dose lower bound confidence limits (BMDLs) were calculated. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between cumulative lead dust and lead fumes exposures and workplace seniority, blood lead, urinary lead and ZPP values. A dose-response relationship was observed between cumulative lead dust or lead fumes exposure and lead poisoning (p < 0.01). The BMDLs of the cumulative occupational lead dust and fumes doses were 0.68 mg-year/m3 and 0.30 mg-year/m3 for lead poisoning, respectively. The BMDLs of workplace airborne lead concentrations associated with lead poisoning were 0.02 mg/m3 and 0.01 mg/m3 for occupational exposure lead dust and lead fume, respectively. In conclusion, BMDLs for airborne lead were lower than occupational exposure limits, suggesting that the occupational lead exposure limits need re-examination and adjustment. Occupational cumulative exposure limits (OCELs) should be established to better prevent occupational lead poisoning. PMID:26999177

  2. Dose-Response Relationship between Cumulative Occupational Lead Exposure and the Associated Health Damages: A 20-Year Cohort Study of a Smelter in China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yue; Gu, Jun-Ming; Huang, Yun; Duan, Yan-Ying; Huang, Rui-Xue; Hu, Jian-An

    2016-03-16

    Long-term airborne lead exposure, even below official occupational limits, has been found to cause lead poisoning at higher frequencies than expected, which suggests that China's existing occupational exposure limits should be reexamined. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1832 smelting workers from 1988 to 2008 in China. These were individuals who entered the plant and came into continuous contact with lead at work for longer than 3 months. The dose-response relationship between occupational cumulative lead exposure and lead poisoning, abnormal blood lead, urinary lead and erythrocyte zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) were analyzed and the benchmark dose lower bound confidence limits (BMDLs) were calculated. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between cumulative lead dust and lead fumes exposures and workplace seniority, blood lead, urinary lead and ZPP values. A dose-response relationship was observed between cumulative lead dust or lead fumes exposure and lead poisoning (p < 0.01). The BMDLs of the cumulative occupational lead dust and fumes doses were 0.68 mg-year/m³ and 0.30 mg-year/m³ for lead poisoning, respectively. The BMDLs of workplace airborne lead concentrations associated with lead poisoning were 0.02 mg/m³ and 0.01 mg/m³ for occupational exposure lead dust and lead fume, respectively. In conclusion, BMDLs for airborne lead were lower than occupational exposure limits, suggesting that the occupational lead exposure limits need re-examination and adjustment. Occupational cumulative exposure limits (OCELs) should be established to better prevent occupational lead poisoning.

  3. Environmental Impact Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (ARPA) Environmental Impact Program is directed toward identifying those scientific and technical...facilities and techniques. These include: An Environmental Impact Prediction Facility to assist in evaluating impact on the environment and to provide a...actual Environmental Impact Prediction Facility. Also described is an effort toward identifying research needed to support future environmental impact statements

  4. Settling and compaction of olivine in basaltic magmas: an experimental study on the time scales of cumulate formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Max W.; Forien, Melanie; Solferino, Giulio; Bagdassarov, Nickolai

    2012-12-01

    A series of centrifuge-assisted settling experiments of 30 vol % olivine in 70 vol % basaltic melt was conducted to elucidate the formation mechanisms and time scales of gravitational cumulates. The settling experiments were performed in a centrifuging piston cylinder at 200-1,500 g, 1,270-1,280 °C, and 0.8-1.1 GPa on previously annealed and texturally equilibrated samples. The mechanical settling of the dense olivine suspension occurs at about 1/6 the speed of simple Stokes settling, resulting in a sedimentation exponent n = 4.1(6) in agreement with predictions from analogue systems. The porosity (φ m ) of the orthocumulate resulting from gravitational settling of crystals is about 54 % and formation times of olivine orthocumulates result to 0.1-10 m day-1 (for an initial crystal content of the melt of 1-5 % and grain sizes of 2-10 mm). After mechanical settling, olivine grains rest on each other, and further compaction occurs through pressure dissolution at grain contacts, olivine reprecipitation where olivine is in contact with melt, and concomitant expulsion of excess liquid from the cumulate layer. With centrifugation at 400 g for 50 h, porosities as low as 30.3 vol % were achieved. The olivine content at the bottom of the gravitational cumulate is 1 - φm ~ log(Δρ · h · a · t), where Δρ is the density difference between crystals and melt, h the crystal layer thickness, a the acceleration, and t the time of centrifuging. Compaction is hence proportional to effective stress integrated over time indicating that pressure dissolution is the dominant mechanism for chemical compaction. The compaction limit, that is the lowermost porosity to be reached by this mechanism, is calculated by equating the lithostatic and hydraulic pressure gradients in the cumulate and results to 3-5 % porosity for the experiments. Crystal size distribution curves and a growth exponent n of 3.1(3) indicate that diffusion-controlled Ostwald ripening is the dominant crystal growth

  5. Latino Mothers' Cumulative Food Insecurity Exposure and Child Body Composition.

    PubMed

    Hernandez, Daphne C

    2016-01-01

    To document whether an intergenerational transmission of food insecurity is occurring by assessing low-income foreign-born Latino mothers' experiences with food insecurity as none, once (either childhood or adulthood) or twice (during both childhood and adulthood). Also the association between maternal cumulative food insecurity and children's body composition was examined. Maternal self-reported surveys on retrospective measures of food insecurity during childhood, current measures of food insecurity, and demographics were collected from Houston-area community centers (N = 96). Children's body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were directly assessed. Covariate-adjusted logistic regression models analyzed the association between cumulative food insecurity experiences and children's body composition. Fifty-eight percent of mothers experienced food insecurity both as a child and as an adult and 31% of the mothers experienced food insecurity either as a child or adult. Maternal cumulative exposure to food insecurity was unrelated to BMI but was negatively related to elevated WC. Although an intergenerational transmission of food insecurity does exist, maternal cumulative exposure to food insecurity does not impact children's body composition negatively in the short term. Studying the long-term effects of cumulative food insecurity exposure can provide information for the development and timing of obesity interventions.

  6. Mortality and Cumulative Exposure to Antipsychotics, Antidepressants, and Benzodiazepines in Patients With Schizophrenia: An Observational Follow-Up Study.

    PubMed

    Tiihonen, Jari; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor; Torniainen, Minna; Alexanderson, Kristina; Tanskanen, Antti

    2016-06-01

    Although mortality related to psychotropic medications has received much attention in recent years, little is known about the relationship between risk of death and cumulative antipsychotic load, and even less about the relationship between mortality and cumulative exposure to antidepressants or benzodiazepines. The authors examined these relationships using nationwide databases. The authors used prospectively collected nationwide databases to identify all individuals 16-65 years of age with a schizophrenia diagnosis (N=21,492) in Sweden. All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates were calculated as a function of cumulative low, moderate, and high exposure to antipsychotics, antidepressants, and benzodiazepines from 2006 through 2010. Compared with no exposure, both moderate (adjusted hazard ratio=0.59, 95% CI=0.49-0.70) and high (adjusted hazard ratio=0.75, 95% CI=0.63-0.89) antipsychotic exposures were associated with substantially lower overall mortality. Moderate antidepressant exposure was associated with a lower mortality (adjusted hazard ratio=0.85, 95% CI=0.73-0.98), and high exposure, even lower (adjusted hazard ratio=0.71, 95% CI=0.59-0.86). Exposure to benzodiazepines showed a dose-response relationship with mortality (hazard ratios up to 1.74 [95% CI=1.50-2.03]). Moderate and high-dose antipsychotic and antidepressant use were associated with 15%-40% lower overall mortality, whereas chronic high-dose use of benzodiazepines was associated with up to a 70% higher risk of death compared with no exposure. Since patients with anxiety and depressive symptoms may have a higher intrinsic risk of death, the finding for benzodiazepines may be attributable to some extent to residual confounding.

  7. Cumulative health risk assessment of co-occurring mycotoxins of deoxynivalenol and its acetyl derivatives in wheat and maize: case study, Shanghai, China.

    PubMed

    Han, Zheng; Nie, Dongxia; Ediage, Emmanuel Njumbe; Yang, Xianli; Wang, Jianhua; Chen, Bo; Li, Shuguang; On, Stephen L W; De Saeger, Sarah; Wu, Aibo

    2014-12-01

    Humans are naturally and frequently exposed to a multitude of mycotoxins, but health risk assessments are usually performed on individual mycotoxins, which may underestimate the total risks. In this study, we assessed for the first time the cumulative health risks of concomitant exposure via dietary intake (DI) to multiple mycotoxins, namely deoxynivalenol (DON) and its acetyl derivatives of 3-acetyldeoxynivalenol (3-ADON) and 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol (15-ADON), based on the concentration addition (CA) concept. A cross-sectional study was conducted in seven districts in Shanghai, China with 1269 participants and 330 wheat and maize samples analyzed. After probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, the results showed no health risks to the population in Shanghai considering individual mycotoxins. However, if the cumulative health risks were calculated based on the combined consideration of DON with either 3-ADON or 15-ADON or both, the DI values in 95th percentile were up to 1087 ng/kg body weight/day, exceeding the Provisional Maximum Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTDI) of 1000 ng/kg body weight/day and hence representing potential health risks to the population in Shanghai. The integrated study proposed here could be a model strategy for cumulative health risk assessment on the co-occurring hazards in the fields of food safety combined with environmental contaminants.

  8. Determinants of cumulative ART live-birth rates in a single-center study: age, fertilization modality, and first-cycle outcome.

    PubMed

    Tigges, Jochen; Godehardt, Erhard; Soepenberg, Therese; Maxrath, Beatrice; Friol, Kerstin; Gnoth, Christian

    2016-11-01

    To analyze cumulative and single-cycle success rates of IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) separately in relation to female age, fertilization modality, and first-cycle outcome. The study involved 2997 patients and couples, respectively, who underwent 5339 fresh and 3006 cryo cycles using pronuclear-stage oocytes. Fertilization was achieved by the conventional IVF or ICSI. Because of legal restrictions in Germany, no embryo selection was performed. All cycles were documented prospectively. Kaplan-Meier survival rates were calculated for all treatment cycles and transferred embryos. Essentially, the success of assisted reproductive technology (ART) depends on a woman's age and on skilful counselling. Cumulative pregnancy and live-birth rates are the best indicators of successful ART. Probably for the first time, we determined these cumulative rates separately for IVF and ICSI, and found them to be almost identical. Live-birth rates reached 70-95 %, except for women aged over 40 years, whose chances of life birth are limited to about 25 %. Live-birth rate per retrieval was 25.61 % for IVF and 26.3 % for ICSI. Time to pregnancy was shorter for women who underwent a successful treatment in their first cycle. The primary intention for the choice of fertilization modality between IVF and ICSI is the prevention of a relative or total fertilization failure. Such treatment failure is best prevented through ICSI, which results in slightly higher clinical pregnancy rates per started cycle. After embryo transfer, there are no differences in the success rates of IVF and ICSI. The supposed cumulative live-birth rates are useful as a basis for counselling subfertile couples to help reduce the high discontinuation rate, which is still the main reason for inefficacy in ART. Following an unsuccessful first treatment cycle, the prognosis remains positive, but until success is achieved, more treatment cycles are necessary.

  9. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  10. Cohort mortality study of workers at seven beryllium processing plants: update and associations with cumulative and maximum exposure.

    PubMed

    Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K; Couch, James R; Petersen, Martin R; Carreón, Tania; Jin, Yan; Deddens, James A

    2011-05-01

    To extend follow-up of cause-specific mortality in workers at seven beryllium processing plants and to estimate associations between mortality risk and beryllium exposure. 9199 workers were followed for mortality from 1940 through 2005. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated based on US population comparisons for lung, nervous system and urinary tract cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, and categories containing chronic beryllium disease (CBD) and cor pulmonale. Associations with maximum and cumulative exposure were calculated for a subset of the workers. Overall mortality in the cohort compared with the US population was elevated for lung cancer (SMR 1.17; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.28), COPD (SMR 1.23; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.32), and the categories containing CBD (SMR 7.80; 95% CI 6.26 to 9.60) and cor pulmonale (SMR 1.17; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.26). Mortality rates for most diseases of interest increased with time-since-hire. For the category including CBD, rates were substantially elevated compared to the US population across all exposure groups. Workers whose maximum beryllium exposure was ≥ 10 μg/m(3) had higher rates of lung cancer, urinary tract cancer, COPD and the category containing cor pulmonale than workers with lower exposure. Significant positive trends with cumulative exposure were observed for nervous system cancers (p = 0.0006) and, when short-term workers were excluded, lung cancer (p = 0.01), urinary tract cancer (p = 0.003) and COPD (p < 0.0001). These findings reaffirm that lung cancer and CBD, and suggest that COPD and nervous system and urinary tract cancers, are related to beryllium exposure. Cigarette smoking and exposure to other lung carcinogens are unlikely to explain these elevations.

  11. An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: the impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia.

    PubMed

    Strimbu, Bogdan; Innes, John

    2011-07-01

    The combined influence on the environment of all projects occurring in a single area is evaluated through cumulative impact assessments (CIA), which consider the consequences of multiple projects, each insignificant on its own, yet important when evaluated collectively. Traditionally, future human activities are included in CIA using an analytical platform, commonly based on complex models that supply precise predictions but with reduced accuracy. To compensate for the lack of accuracy in current CIA approaches, we propose a shift in the paradigm governing CIA. The paradigm shift involves a change in the focus of CIA investigations from the detailed analysis of one unlikely future to the identification of the patterns describing multiple potential future changes in the environment. To illustrate the approach, a set of 144 possible and equally likely futures were developed that aimed to identify the potential impacts of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on the habitat suitability of moose and marten in northeast British Columbia, Canada. The evolution of two measures of habitat suitability (average habitat suitability index and surface of the stands with habitat suitability index >0.5) revealed that the human activities could induce cycles in the habitat dynamics of moose and marten. The planning period of 100 years was separated into three distinct periods following a sinusoidal pattern (i.e., increase - constant - decrease in the habitat suitability measures). The attributes that could induce significant changes in the assessment of environment are the choice of harvesting age and species.

  12. Evaluating cumulative effects of disturbance on the hydrologic function of bogs, fens, and mires

    SciTech Connect

    Siegel, D.I.

    1988-01-01

    Few quantitative studies have been done on the hydrology of fens, bogs, and mires and, consequently, any predictions of the cumulative impacts of disturbances on their hydrologic functions is extremely difficult. Bogs and fens are, in a sense, hydrobiologic systems, and any evaluation of cumulative impacts on them will have to consider the complicated interactions, barely understood, among the wetland hydrology, water chemistry, and biota, and place the effect of individual wetland impacts within the context of the cumulative impacts contributed to the watershed from other geomorphic areas and land uses. It is difficult to evaluate the potential cumulative impacts on wetland hydrology because geologic settings of wetlands are often complex and the methods used to measure wetland stream flow, ground-water flow, and evapotranspiration are inexact. Their very scale makes it difficult to quantify the hydrologic function accurately. The paper reviews current understanding of the hydrologic function of bogs, fens, and mires at different scales and in different physiographic settings, and presents hypotheses on potential cumulative impacts on the hydrologic function that might occur with multiple disturbances.

  13. Use of the Learning Curve-Cumulative Summation Test for Leopold Maneuvers Assessment in a Simulator: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Díez-Goñi, Nieves; Guillén, Sergio; Rodríguez-Díez, María C; Pineda, Laura; Alcázar, Juan L

    2015-10-01

    Simulation enables medical students to practice clinical skills in a safe environment. Graduates in medicine must be able to correctly perform an examination on a pregnant woman using Leopold maneuvers. Learning curves-cumulative summation (LC-CUSUM) may help determine when the student has achieved a specific skill. Our objective was to perform the LC-CUSUM test regarding the ability of students to correctly carry out Leopold maneuvers; a pregnancy simulator was used, transferring the results to a clinical setting. Five medical students were trained to carry out Leopold maneuvers using the simulator. Each student performed maneuvers for 50 cases of different fetus positions; a LC-CUSUM was plotted for each student. Afterward, the students performed the Leopold maneuvers on 5 pregnant women. Of the 5 students, 3 achieved a level of proficiency; the attempts needed for reaching this level were 13, 13, and 37, respectively. The other 2 students did not reach proficiency level. Of the students who became successfully proficient with the simulator, one of them attained a 100% success rate in pregnant patients, whereas the other two had success rates of 80%. The students who did not achieve a level of competency with the simulator had only a 60% success rate with patients. Because of the differences observed between students in the number of attempts needed for achieving proficiency in Leopold maneuvers, we believe that each student should build his/her own learning curve. Achieving competency in carrying out Leopold maneuvers using the simulator could be transferable to patients.

  14. Economic impacts study

    SciTech Connect

    Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

    1988-09-30

    This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

  15. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  16. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  17. Cumulative Timers for Microprocessors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Battle, John O.

    2007-01-01

    It has been proposed to equip future microprocessors with electronic cumulative timers, for essentially the same reasons for which land vehicles are equipped with odometers (total-distance-traveled meters) and aircraft are equipped with Hobbs meters (total-engine-operating time meters). Heretofore, there has been no way to determine the amount of use to which a microprocessor (or a product containing a microprocessor) has been subjected. The proposed timers would count all microprocessor clock cycles and could only be read by means of microprocessor instructions but, like odometers and Hobbs meters, could never be reset to zero without physically damaging the chip.

  18. Cumulative burden of cardiovascular morbidity in paediatric, adolescent, and young adult survivors of Hodgkin's lymphoma: an analysis from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Bhakta, Nickhill; Liu, Qi; Yeo, Frederick; Baassiri, Malek; Ehrhardt, Matthew J; Srivastava, Deo K; Metzger, Monika L; Krasin, Matthew J; Ness, Kirsten K; Hudson, Melissa M; Yasui, Yutaka; Robison, Leslie L

    2016-09-01

    The magnitude of cardiovascular morbidity in paediatric, adolescent, and young adult survivors of Hodgkin's lymphoma is not known. Using medically ascertained data, we applied the cumulative burden metric to compare chronic cardiovascular health conditions in survivors of Hodgkin's lymphoma and general population controls. For this study, participant data were obtained from two ongoing cohort studies at St Jude Children's Research Hospital: the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE) and the St Jude Long-term Follow-up Study (SJLTFU). SJLIFE is a cohort study initiated on April 27, 2007, to enable longitudinal clinical evaluation of health outcomes of survivors of childhood cancer treated or followed at St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and SJLTFU is an administrative system-based study initiated in 2000 to collect outcome and late toxicity data for all patients treated at the hospital for childhood cancer. The patient cohort for our study was defined as patients treated at St Jude Children's Research Hospital who reached 18 years of age and were at least 10 years post-diagnosis of pathologically confirmed primary Hodgkin's lymphoma. Outcomes in the Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors were compared with a sample of SJLIFE community control participants, aged 18 years or older at the time of assessment, frequency-matched based on strata defined by 5-year age blocks within each sex, who were selected irrespective of previous medical history. All SJLIFE participants underwent assessment for 22 chronic cardiovascular health conditions. Direct assessments, combined with retrospective clinical reviews, were used to assign severity to conditions using a modified Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events (CTCAE) version 4.03 grading schema. Occurrences and CTCAE grades of the conditions for eligible non-SJLIFE participants were accounted for by multiple imputation. The mean cumulative count (treating death as a competing risk) was used to estimate cumulative burden. Of 670

  19. [Reconstruction of urban land space based on minimum cumulative resistance model: a case study of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City].

    PubMed

    Zhong, Shi-Yu; Wu, Qing; Li, Yu; Cheng, Jin-Ping

    2012-11-01

    Based on the source-sink landscape theory and the principles of ecosystem services, the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was modified, where the urban center construction land was taken as the expansion source, and the contribution rate of ecological land ecosystem services value was considered as the resistance coefficient. With the modified MCR, the urban spatial expansion process of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City was successfully simulated, and, based on the protection of ecological security pattern, the optimum path for reconstructing urban land space was put forward. The simulated urban spatial expansion short path in 1988-2008 was in accordance with the real situation. By the modified MCR, the urban space was divided into four zones of high, higher, medium, and low resistance, with the area of 80.84, 78.90, 24.26, and 61.88 km2, respectively. The expansion path of the urban space was along the route from low to medium and then to high resistance zones successively. The land suitable for eco-protection and construction had an area of 159.74 km2 and 86.14 km2, while the ecological conflict area (17.37 km2) was mainly located in higher and high resistance zones, being 10.38 and 6.99 km2, respectively. The modified MCR could not only effectively reflect the distribution area of urban land use and the conflict relationship between urban construction and ecological protection, but also reasonably judge the best developmental short path for urban spatial expansion.

  20. Cumulative impact of axial, structural, and repolarization ECG findings on long-term cardiovascular mortality among healthy individuals in Japan: National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Non-Communicable Disease and its Trends in the Aged, 1980 and 1990.

    PubMed

    Inohara, Taku; Kohsaka, Shun; Okamura, Tomonori; Watanabe, Makoto; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Higashiyama, Aya; Kadota, Aya; Okuda, Nagako; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okayama, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2014-12-01

    Various cohort studies have shown a close association between long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and individual electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities such as axial, structural, and repolarization changes. The combined effect of these ECG abnormalities, each assumed to be benign, has not been thoroughly investigated. Community-dwelling Japanese residents from the National Integrated Project for Perspective Observation of Non-Communicable Disease and its Trends in the Aged, 1980-2004 and 1990-2005 (NIPPON DATA80 and 90), were included in this study. Baseline ECG findings were classified using the Minnesota Code and categorized into axial (left axis deviation, clockwise rotation), structural (left ventricular hypertrophy, atrial enlargement), and repolarization (minor and major ST-T changes) abnormalities. The hazard ratios of the cumulative impacts of ECG findings on long-term CVD death were estimated by stratified Cox proportional hazard models, including adjustments for cohort strata. In all, 16,816 participants were evaluated. The average age was 51.2 ± 13.5 years; 42.7% participants were male. The duration of follow up was 300,924 person-years (mean 17.9 ± 5.8 years); there were 1218 CVD deaths during that time. Overall, 4203 participants (25.0%) had one or more categorical ECG abnormalities: 3648 (21.7%) had a single abnormality, and 555 (3.3%) had two or more. The risk of CVD mortality increased as the number of abnormalities accumulated (single abnormality HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13-1.48; ≥2 abnormalities HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.73-2.53). Individual ECG abnormalities had an additive effect in predicting CVD outcome risk in our large-scale cohort study. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  1. Associations of cumulative Pb exposure and longitudinal changes in Mini-Mental Status Exam scores, global cognition and domains of cognition: The VA Normative Aging Study.

    PubMed

    Farooqui, Zishaan; Bakulski, Kelly M; Power, Melinda C; Weisskopf, Marc G; Sparrow, David; Spiro, Avron; Vokonas, Pantel S; Nie, Linda H; Hu, Howard; Park, Sung Kyun

    2017-01-01

    Lead (Pb) exposure has been associated with poorer cognitive function cross-sectionally in aging adults, however the association between cumulative Pb exposure and longitudinal changes in cognition is little characterized. In a 1993-2007 subcohort of the VA Normative Aging Study (Mini-mental status exam (MMSE) n=741; global cognition summary score n=715), we used linear mixed effects models to test associations between cumulative Pb exposure (patella or tibia bone Pb) and repeated measures of cognition (MMSE, individual cognitive tests, and global cognition summary). Cox proportional hazard modeling assessed the risk of an MMSE score falling below 25. Among men 51-98 at baseline, higher patella Pb concentration (IQR: 21μg/g) was associated with -0.13 lower baseline MMSE (95% CI: -0.25, -0.004) and faster longitudinal MMSE decline (-0.016 units/year, 95% CI: -0.032, -0.0004) over 15 years. Each IQR increase in patella Pb was associated with increased risk of a MMSE score below 25 (HR=1.21, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.49; p=0.07). There were no significant associations between Pb and global cognition (both baseline and longitudinal change). Patella Pb was associated with faster longitudinal decline in Word List Total Recall in the language domain (0.014 units/year, 95% CI: -0.026, -0.001) and Word List Delayed Recall in the memory domain (0.014 units/year, 95% CI: -0.027, -0.002). We found weaker associations with tibia Pb. Cumulative Pb exposure is associated with faster declines in MMSE and Word List Total and Delayed Recall tests. These findings support the hypothesis that Pb exposure accelerates cognitive aging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  3. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  4. Aircraft community noise impact studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The objectives of the study are to: (1) conduct a program to determine the community noise impact of advanced technology engines when installed in a supersonic aircraft, (2) determine the potential reduction of community noise by flight operational techniques for the study aircraft, (3) estimate the community noise impact of the study aircraft powered by suppressed turbojet engines and by advanced duct heating turbofan engines, and (4) compare the impact of the two supersonic designs with that of conventional commercial DC-8 aircraft.

  5. A Longitudinal Analysis of Cumulative Risks, Cumulative Promotive Factors, and Adolescent Violent Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoddard, Sarah A.; Zimmerman, Marc A.; Bauermeister, Jose A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the effects of cumulative risk and promotive factors on violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of predominately African American urban adolescents (N = 750). Cumulative risk and promotive factor indices represented individual characteristics, and peer, parental, and familial influences. Using…

  6. In-vivo measurements of Pb-210 to determine cumulative exposure to radon daughters: A pilot study. Final report, 1 March, 1990--May 31, 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Laurer, G.R.; Cohen, N.; Stark, A.; Ju, C.

    1991-05-01

    The objective of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of estimating cumulative exposure of individuals to low concentrations of radon by measuring the amount of Pb-A-10 in their skeletons. This report presents progress to date establishing the validity of an vivo technique to measure skeletal burdens of Pb-210, accumulated from exposure to radon and radon progeny. With the skeletal content of Pb--210 and a model for Pb metabolism, cumulative exposure to radon and its short-lived daughters (radon/daughters) may be calculated for use in deriving a dose-response relationship between lung cancer and exposure to radon/daughters. Data are presented for 29 subjects exposed to ``above-average`` radon concentrations in their homes, showing the correlation between measured Pb--210 burdens, and measured pCi/l and WLM exposure estimates. Their results are compared to measurements of a population of 24 subject`s presumed exposed to average concentrations. Measurements of a Pennsylvania family exposed for a year in a home with an extremely high radon content are also presented. Update of results of an ongoing study of the biological half-time of Pb--210 in man involving measurements, of a retired radiation worker with a 40 year old skeletal burden of Pb-210.

  7. Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.

    2017-02-01

    The cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major, and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea level rise, nuisance flooding (NF) could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are among the most difficult decisions for policymakers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index (CHI) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA, and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socioeconomic impacts of NF for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.

  8. [Antimicrobial susceptibility cumulative reports].

    PubMed

    Canut-Blasco, Andrés; Calvo, Jorge; Rodríguez-Díaz, Juan Carlos; Martínez-Martínez, Luis

    2016-10-01

    Cumulative reports on antimicrobial susceptibility tests data are important for selecting empirical treatments, as an educational tool in programs on antimicrobial use, and for establishing breakpoints defining clinical categories. These reports should be based on data validated by clinical microbiologists using diagnostic samples (not surveillance samples). In order to avoid a bias derived from including several isolates obtained from the same patient, it is recommended that, for a defined period, only the first isolate is counted. A minimal number of isolates per species should be presented: a figure of >=30 isolates is statistically acceptable. The report is usually presented in a table format where, for each cell, information on clinically relevant microorganisms-antimicrobial agents is presented. Depending on particular needs, multiple tables showing data related to patients, samples, services or special pathogens can be prepared.

  9. Cumulative Risk of Colon Cancer up to Age 70 Years by Risk Factor Status Using Data From the Nurses’ Health Study

    PubMed Central

    Colditz, Graham A.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Fuchs, Charles S.; Rosner, Bernard A.

    2009-01-01

    The authors developed a comprehensive model of colon cancer incidence that allows for nonproportional hazards and accounts for the temporal nature of risk factors. They estimated relative risk based on cumulative incidence of colon cancer by age 70 years. Using multivariate, nonlinear Poisson regression, they determined colon cancer risk among 83,767 participants in the Nurses’ Health Study. The authors observed 701 cases of colon cancer between 1980 and June 1, 2004. There was increased risk for a positive family history of colon or rectal cancer (55%), 10 or more pack-years of cigarette smoking before age 30 years (16%), and tallness (67 inches (170 cm) vs. 61 inches (155 cm): 19%). Reduced risk was observed for current postmenopausal hormone use (−23%), being physically active (21 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/week vs. 2 MET-hours/week: −49%), taking aspirin (7 tablets/week vs. none: −29%), and being screened (−24%). Women who smoked, had a consistently high relative weight, had a low physical activity level, consumed red or processed meat daily, were never screened, and consumed low daily amounts of folate had almost a 4-fold higher cumulative risk of colon cancer by age 70 years. For women with a high risk factor profile, adopting a healthier lifestyle could dramatically reduce colon cancer risk. PMID:19723749

  10. Stability and Change in Posttraumatic Distress: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study of Mothers and Young Children Exposed to Cumulative Trauma.

    PubMed

    Pat-Horenczyk, Ruth; Cohen, Sarale; Ziv, Yuval; Achituv, M; Brickman, Sophie; Blanchard, Tamar; Brom, Danny

    2017-04-01

    In situations of cumulative trauma, it is often unclear why some people remain resilient, whereas others experience distress, and how likely these responses are to change over time. To investigate the constancy of responses to cumulative trauma, stability and change in posttraumatic distress and resistance (as defined by no evidence of clinical symptoms) were assessed twice in 140 Israeli children and mothers exposed to continual rocket attacks over approximately 7 years, when the children were 2-4 (Time 1) and 9-11 years of age (Time 2). Measures included trauma exposure, posttraumatic and depressive symptoms, and child behavioral problems. We identified 4 longitudinal courses (LCs): resilient (resistance at Time 1 and Time 2), recovered (clinical distress at Time 1 and resistance at Time 2), developed symptoms (resistance at Time 1 and clinical distress at Time 2), and chronic distress (clinical distress at Time 1 and Time 2). Results showed more stability than change in the frequencies of resistance at both times of measurement. The resilient LC was the most common longitudinal course for both mothers and children. Multinomial regression models indicated that maternal posttraumatic symptoms predicted the recovered and chronic distress LCs of the children. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  11. Mariner 4 - A study of the cumulative flux of dust particles over a heliocentric range of 1-1.56 AU 1964-1967

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, W. M.; Bohn, J. L.

    1974-01-01

    Between December 1964 and December 1967, the Mariner 4 dust particle experiment obtained data concerning the distribution of minute zodiacal dust cloud particles over a heliocentric range of 1-1.56 AU. The first measurement was over the complete heliocentric range, while the two additional measurements were made between 1.1 and 1.25 AU in 1966, and between 1.2 and 1.5 AU in 1967. The initial results of these measurements presented the mean cumulative flux for the respective data periods. The results of a detailed study and comparison of the three measurements are presented, with particular emphasis on the variation of the flux as a function of heliocentric range. A small, but statistically significant, increase in the flux is observed between 1.15 and 1.4 AU. The initial reports showed a lower cumulative flux for the latter two measurements. However, a detailed analysis containing corrections for spacecraft attitude indicate that all three measurements yield similar results, and that the particles detected were in low inclination orbits.

  12. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  13. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  14. A pebble count procedure for assessing watershed cumulative effects

    Treesearch

    Gregory S. Bevenger; Rudy M. King

    1995-01-01

    Land mangement activities can result in the delivery of fine sediment to streams. Over time, such delivery can lead to cumulative impacts to the aquactic ecosystem. Because numerous laws require Federal land managers to analyze watershed cumulative effects, field personnel need simple monitoring procedures that can be used directly and consistently. One approach to...

  15. The differential impacts of episodic, chronic, and cumulative physical bullying and cyberbullying: the effects of victimization on the school experiences, social support, and mental health of rural adolescents.

    PubMed

    Smokowski, Paul R; Evans, Caroline B R; Cotter, Katie L

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have examined the impacts of past, current, and chronic physical bullying and cyberbullying on youth, especially in rural settings. This study augments this scant literature by exploring the school experiences, social support, and mental health outcomes for rural, middle school youth. The participants for this 2-year longitudinal study were 3,127 youth from 28 middle schools. Participants were classified as nonvictims, past victims (i.e., victimized during Year 1 but not Year 2), current victims (i.e., victimized during Year 2 but not Year 1), and chronic victims (i.e., victimized during both Year 1 and Year 2). Findings illustrated that chronic victimization resulted in the lowest levels of school satisfaction, social support, future optimism, and self-esteem. Chronic victims also reported the highest levels of school hassles, perceived discrimination, peer rejection, anxiety, depression, and externalizing behaviors. In terms of episodic victimization, current year victimization was associated with worse outcomes than past year victimization. Implications and limitations were discussed.

  16. Rationale, design and methods for a community-based study of clustering and cumulative effects of chronic disease processes and their effects on ageing: the Busselton healthy ageing study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The global trend of increased life expectancy and increased prevalence of chronic and degenerative diseases will impact on health systems. To identify effective intervention and prevention strategies, greater understanding of the risk factors for and cumulative effects of chronic disease processes and their effects on function and quality of life is needed. The Busselton Healthy Ageing Study aims to enhance understanding of ageing by relating the clustering and interactions of common chronic conditions in adults to function. Longitudinal (3–5 yearly) follow-up is planned. Methods/design Phase I (recruitment) is a cross-sectional community-based prospective cohort study involving up to 4,000 'Baby Boomers’ (born from 1946 to 1964) living in the Busselton Shire, Western Australia. The study protocol involves a detailed, self-administered health and risk factor questionnaire and a range of physical assessments including body composition and bone density measurements, cardiovascular profiling (blood pressure, ECG and brachial pulse wave velocity), retinal photography, tonometry, auto-refraction, spirometry and bronchodilator responsiveness, skin allergy prick tests, sleep apnoea screening, tympanometry and audiometry, grip strength, mobility, balance and leg extensor strength. Cognitive function and reserve, semantic memory, and pre-morbid intelligence are assessed. Participants provide a fasting blood sample for assessment of lipids, blood glucose, C-reactive protein and renal and liver function, and RNA, DNA and serum are stored. Clinically relevant results are provided to all participants. The prevalence of risk factors, symptoms and diagnosed illness will be calculated and the burden of illness will be estimated based on the observed relationships and clustering of symptoms and illness within individuals. Risk factors for combinations of illness will be compared with those for single illnesses and the relation of combinations of illness and symptoms

  17. Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study

    PubMed Central

    Lawrance, Richard A; Dorsch, Micha F; Sapsford, Robert J; Mackintosh, Alan F; Greenwood, Darren C; Jackson, Beryl M; Morrell, Christine; Robinson, Michael B; Hall, Alistair S

    2001-01-01

    Objectives Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Design Observational study. Setting 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. Participants All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Main outcome measures Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. Results The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of −4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Conclusions Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction. What is already known on this topicThe national service framework for coronary artery disease requires minimal standards of care and audit of patients with acute myocardial infarction but does not integrate clinical status into the audit toolPredictive models using only a few

  18. The U.S. Forest Service's analysis of cumulative effects to wildlife: A study of legal standards, current practice, and ongoing challenges on a National Forest

    SciTech Connect

    Schultz, Courtney A.

    2012-01-15

    Cumulative effects analysis (CEA) allows natural resource managers to understand the status of resources in historical context, learn from past management actions, and adapt future activities accordingly. U.S. federal agencies are required to complete CEA as part of environmental impact assessment under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Past research on CEA as part of NEPA has identified significant deficiencies in CEA practice, suggested methodologies for handling difficult aspects of CEA, and analyzed the rise in litigation over CEA in U.S. courts. This article provides a review of the literature and legal standards related to CEA as it is done under NEPA and then examines current practice on a U.S. National Forest, utilizing qualitative methods in order to provide a detailed understanding of current approaches to CEA. Research objectives were to understand current practice, investigate ongoing challenges, and identify impediments to improvement. Methods included a systematic review of a set of NEPA documents and semi-structured interviews with practitioners, scientists, and members of the public. Findings indicate that the primary challenges associated with CEA include: issues of both geographic and temporal scale of analysis, confusion over the purpose of the requirement, the lack of monitoring data, and problems coordinating and disseminating data. Improved monitoring strategies and programmatic analyses could support improved CEA practice.

  19. The Cumulative Burden Borne by Offspring Whose Mothers Were Sexually Abused as Children: Descriptive Results from a Multigenerational Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Noll, Jennie G.; Trickett, Penelope K.; Harris, William W.; Putnam, Frank W.

    2009-01-01

    This multigenerational study empirically demonstrates the extent to which offspring whose parents experienced childhood abuse are at increased risk of being abused or neglected. Females with substantiated childhood sexual abuse and nonabused comparison females were assessed at six points spanning 18 years in a prospective, longitudinal study.…

  20. The Cumulative Burden Borne by Offspring Whose Mothers Were Sexually Abused as Children: Descriptive Results from a Multigenerational Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Noll, Jennie G.; Trickett, Penelope K.; Harris, William W.; Putnam, Frank W.

    2009-01-01

    This multigenerational study empirically demonstrates the extent to which offspring whose parents experienced childhood abuse are at increased risk of being abused or neglected. Females with substantiated childhood sexual abuse and nonabused comparison females were assessed at six points spanning 18 years in a prospective, longitudinal study.…

  1. Assessing the cumulative impacts of surface mining and coal bed methane development on shallow aquifers in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

    SciTech Connect

    Peacock, K.

    1997-12-31

    Large scale surface coal mining taken place along the cropline of the Wyodak-Anderson coal seam since approximately 1977. Groundwater impacts due to surface mining of coal and other energy-related development is a primary regulatory concern and an identified Office of Surface Mining deficiency in the Wyoming coal program. The modeled aquifers are the upper unit (coal) of the Paleocene Fort Union Formation and the overlying Eocene Wasatch Formation. A regional groundwater model covering 790 square miles was constructed using MODFLOW, to simulate the impacts from three surface coal mines and coal bed methane development occurring downdip. Assessing anisotropy of the coal aquifer, quality checking of in situ aquifer tests and database quality control were precursors to modelling. Geologic data was kriged to develop the structural model of the aquifers. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was utilized to facilitate storage, analysis, display, development of input modelling arrays and assessment of hydrologic boundaries. Model output presents the predicted impacts of likely development scenarios, including impacts from coal bed methane development and surface coal mining through anticipated life of mining, and surface mining impacts independent of gas development.

  2. Algorithm Calculates Cumulative Poisson Distribution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Nolty, Robert C.; Scheuer, Ernest M.

    1992-01-01

    Algorithm calculates accurate values of cumulative Poisson distribution under conditions where other algorithms fail because numbers are so small (underflow) or so large (overflow) that computer cannot process them. Factors inserted temporarily to prevent underflow and overflow. Implemented in CUMPOIS computer program described in "Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program" (NPO-17714).

  3. Relationship Risks in Context: A Cumulative Risk Approach to Understanding Relationship Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauer, Amy J.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Garvan, Cynthia W.; Hou, Wei

    2008-01-01

    Risks associated with less satisfying intimate relationships often co-occur within individuals, raising questions about approaches that consider only their independent impact. Utilizing the "cumulative risk model," which acknowledges the natural covariation of risk factors, this study examined individuals in intimate relationships using…

  4. Relationship Risks in Context: A Cumulative Risk Approach to Understanding Relationship Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauer, Amy J.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Garvan, Cynthia W.; Hou, Wei

    2008-01-01

    Risks associated with less satisfying intimate relationships often co-occur within individuals, raising questions about approaches that consider only their independent impact. Utilizing the "cumulative risk model," which acknowledges the natural covariation of risk factors, this study examined individuals in intimate relationships using…

  5. Cumulative sojourn time in longitudinal studies: a sequential imputation method to handle missing health state data due to dropout.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaodong; Liu, Jingchen; Duan, Naihua; Jiang, Huiping; Girgis, Ragy; Lieberman, Jeffrey

    2014-05-30

    Missing data are ubiquitous in longitudinal studies. In this paper, we propose an imputation procedure to handle dropouts in longitudinal studies. By taking advantage of the monotone missing pattern resulting from dropouts, our imputation procedure can be carried out sequentially, which substantially reduces the computation complexity. In addition, at each step of the sequential imputation, we set up a model selection mechanism that chooses between a parametric model and a nonparametric model to impute eachmissing observation. Unlike usual model selection procedures that aim at finding a single model fitting the entire data set well, our model selection procedure is customized to find a suitable model for the prediction of each missing observation.

  6. Ethnography's Capacity to Contribute to the Cumulation of Theory: A Case Study of Differentiation-Polarisation Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hillyard, Sam

    2010-01-01

    The paper sets out to examine the role that ethnographic work can and should play in the development of sociological theory, focusing on the case study of differentiation-polarisation theory. It provides a detailed discussion of the work of Hargreaves (1967), Lacey (1970) and Ball (1981) and assesses the degree to which their work was ethnographic…

  7. Ethnography's Capacity to Contribute to the Cumulation of Theory: A Case Study of Differentiation-Polarisation Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hillyard, Sam

    2010-01-01

    The paper sets out to examine the role that ethnographic work can and should play in the development of sociological theory, focusing on the case study of differentiation-polarisation theory. It provides a detailed discussion of the work of Hargreaves (1967), Lacey (1970) and Ball (1981) and assesses the degree to which their work was ethnographic…

  8. Comparing center-specific cumulative incidence functions.

    PubMed

    Fan, Ludi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2016-01-01

    The competing risks data structure arises frequently in clinical and epidemiologic studies. In such settings, the cumulative incidence function is often used to describe the ultimate occurrence of a particular cause of interest. If the objective of the analysis is to compare subgroups of patients with respect to cumulative incidence, imbalance with respect to group-specific covariate distributions must generally be factored out, particularly in observational studies. This report proposes a measure to contrast center- (or, more generally group-) specific cumulative incidence functions (CIF). One such application involves evaluating organ procurement organizations with respect to the cumulative incidence of kidney transplantation. In this case, the competing risks include (i) death on the wait-list and (ii) removal from the wait-list. The proposed method assumes proportional cause-specific hazards, which are estimated through Cox models stratified by center. The proposed center effect measure compares the average CIF for a given center to the average CIF that would have resulted if that particular center had covariate pattern-specific cumulative incidence equal to that of the national average. We apply the proposed methods to data obtained from a national organ transplant registry.

  9. Use of a Cumulative Exposure Index to Estimate the Impact of Tap Water Lead Concentration on Blood Lead Levels in 1- to 5-Year-Old Children (Montréal, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    Ngueta, Gerard; Abdous, Belkacem; Tardif, Robert; St-Laurent, Julie; Levallois, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Background Drinking water is recognized as a source of lead (Pb) exposure. However, questions remain about the impact of chronic exposure to lead-contaminated water on internal dose. Objective Our goal was to estimate the relation between a cumulative water Pb exposure index (CWLEI) and blood Pb levels (BPb) in children 1–5 years of ages. Methods Between 10 September 2009 and 27 March 2010, individual characteristics and water consumption data were obtained from 298 children. Venous blood samples were collected (one per child) and a total of five 1-L samples of water per home were drawn from the kitchen tap. A second round of water collection was performed between 22 June 2011 and 6 September 2011 on a subsample of houses. Pb analyses used inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. Multiple linear regressions were used to estimate the association between CWLEI and BPb. Results Each 1-unit increase in CWLEI multiplies the expected value of BPb by 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.15) after adjustment for confounders. Mean BPb was significantly higher in children in the upper third and fourth quartiles of CWLEI (0.7–1.9 and ≥ 1.9 μg/kg of body weight) compared with the first (< 0.2 μg/kg) after adjusting for confounders (19%; 95% CI: 0, 42% and 39%; 95% CI: 15, 67%, respectively). The trends analysis yielded a p-value < 0.0001 after adjusting for confounders suggesting a dose–response relationship between percentiles of CWLEI and BPb. Conclusions In children 1–5 years of age, BPb was significantly associated with water lead concentration with an increase starting at a cumulative lead exposure of ≥ 0.7 μg Pb/kg of body weight. In this age group, an increase of 1 μg/L in water lead would result in an increase of 35% of BPb after 150 days of exposure. Citation Ngueta G, Abdous B, Tardif R, St-Laurent J, Levallois P. 2016. Use of a cumulative exposure index to estimate the impact of tap water lead concentration on blood lead levels in 1- to 5-year-old children

  10. Feasibility Study for Evaluating Cumulative Exposure of Downstream Migrant Juvenile Salmonids to Total Dissolved Gas. Final Report 1996.

    SciTech Connect

    Abernethy, C.Scott; Dauble, Dennis D.; Johnson, Robert L.

    1997-11-01

    A feasibility study was initiated to determine if downstream migrant salmonids could be monitored to determine potential relationships between total dissolved gas (TDG) exposure and signs of gas bubble trauma (GBT). The primary objectives were to: (1) establish logistical requirements for in-river monitoring of TDG exposure, including net pen design, deployment, and navigation constraints; (2) resolve uncertainties associated with effects of the net pen on fish behavior; (3) test the accuracy and precision of in-river monitoring equipment used to measure fish distribution and water quality; and (4) determine the application of hydrologic/flow models to predictions of TDG exposure. In-river measurements included water velocity, boat position, and selected water quality parameters (temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, depth, conductivity). Fish distribution within the net pen was monitored using scanning sonar, and a split-beam echo sounder was used to evaluate vertical distribution of fish m in the river adjacent to the net pen. Three test drifts were conducted from late July through late August. The studies demonstrated that it was feasible to assemble and deploy a large net pen for mobile monitoring of TDG exposure. Accurate monitoring of vertical and lateral distribution of smolts was performed, and diel differences in behavior were documented. Further, the fish sounded in response to researcher activity on the perimeter platform. Thus, in-transit monitoring for GBT or mortality would affect fish depth distribution and exposure to TDG. Principal recommendations for future studies are directed at improving maneuverability of the net pen in adverse weather conditions and applying new acoustics technology to simultaneously collect fish distribution data from within and outside of the pen. 6 refs., 17 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Bone Mineral Density as a Marker of Cumulative Estrogen Exposure in Psychotic Disorder: A 3 Year Follow-Up Study

    PubMed Central

    van der Leeuw, Christine; Peeters, Sanne; Domen, Patrick; van Kroonenburgh, Marinus; van Os, Jim; Marcelis, Machteld

    2015-01-01

    Altered estrogen-induced neuroprotection has been implicated in the etiology of psychotic disorders. Using bone mineral density as a marker of lifetime estrogen exposure, a longitudinal family study was conducted to discriminate between etiological mechanisms and secondary effects of disease and treatment. Dual X-ray absorptiometry scans were acquired twice, with an interval of 3 years, in 30 patients with psychotic disorder (male (M)/female (F): 24/6, mean age of 32 years at second measurement), 44 non-psychotic siblings of patients with a psychotic disorder (M/F: 26/18, mean age 32) and 27 controls (M/F: 7/20, mean age 35). Total bone mineral density, Z-scores and T-scores were measured in the lumbar spine and proximal femur. Associations between group and bone mineral density changes were investigated with multilevel random regression analyses. The effect of prolactin-raising antipsychotic medication was evaluated. (Increased risk of) psychotic disorder was not associated with disproportionate bone mineral density loss over a three year period. Instead, femoral bone mineral density measures appeared to decrease less in the patient versus control comparison (total BMD: B = 0.026, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.050, p = 0.037; Z-score: B = 0.224, 95% CI 0.035 to 0.412, p = 0.020; and T-score: B = 0.193, 95% CI 0.003 to 0.382, p = 0.046). Current or past use of a prolactin-raising antipsychotic medication was not associated with bone mineral density changes. In this small longitudinal study, there was no evidence of ongoing estrogen deficiency in psychotic disorder as there was no excessive loss of bone mineral density over a 3-year period in patients using antipsychotic medication. PMID:26309037

  12. Could Testosterone Replacement Therapy in Hypogonadal Men Ameliorate Anemia, a Cardiovascular Risk Factor? An Observational, 54-Week Cumulative Registry Study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Li Tao; Shin, Yu Seob; Kim, Ji Yong; Park, Jong Kwan

    2016-04-01

    In this study we investigated if testosterone undecanoate attenuates anemia and the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with hypogonadism. A registry study consisted of 58 participants with a subnormal total testosterone level (less than 2.35 ng/ml) and at least mild symptoms of testosterone deficiency. All patients received an injection of 1,000 mg testosterone undecanoate at the initial visit, followed by injection at 6, 18, 30, 42 and 54 weeks. Serum hormones, hemoglobin, hematocrit, anemia risk factors, lipid profiles, whole blood viscosity and anthropometry were measured. Total testosterone (from mean ± SD 1.87 ± 1.09 to 5.52 ± 1.92 ng/ml, p <0.001) and free testosterone (from 3.04 ± 2.03 to 7.23 ± 2.90 pg/ml, p <0.001) were restored by testosterone undecanoate therapy. Hemoglobin and hematocrit significantly increased after testosterone undecanoate therapy by an average of 2.46 gm/dl (p <0.001) and 3.03% (p <0.001), respectively. The prevalence of anemia (from 29.6% to 10.0%) significantly decreased (p <0.001) and patients with anemia showed a significant increase in erythropoietin after testosterone undecanoate therapy (p = 0.047). A reduction in total cholesterol (from 165.89 ± 39.16 to 153.80 ± 154.27 mg/dl, p = 0.002), increased whole blood viscosity and increased hematocrit were observed until 54 weeks compared with baseline. However, whole blood viscosity and hematocrit stabilized after 18 weeks. After 54 weeks testosterone undecanoate decreased the prevalence of anemia and components of the metabolic syndrome. A longer duration of testosterone undecanoate therapy of more than 18 weeks may be effective and safe in reducing blood viscosity and improving anemia. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bandura, Albert; And Others

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

  14. Investigation of practical approaches to evaluating cumulative dose for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) from standard CT dosimetry measurements: a Monte Carlo study.

    PubMed

    Abuhaimed, Abdullah; Martin, Colin J; Sankaralingam, Marimuthu; Gentle, David J

    2015-07-21

    A function called Gx(L) was introduced by the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) Report-87 to facilitate measurement of cumulative dose for CT scans within long phantoms as recommended by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) TG-111. The Gx(L) function is equal to the ratio of the cumulative dose at the middle of a CT scan to the volume weighted CTDI (CTDIvol), and was investigated for conventional multi-slice CT scanners operating with a moving table. As the stationary table mode, which is the basis for cone beam CT (CBCT) scans, differs from that used for conventional CT scans, the aim of this study was to investigate the extension of the Gx(L) function to CBCT scans. An On-Board Imager (OBI) system integrated with a TrueBeam linac was simulated with Monte Carlo EGSnrc/BEAMnrc, and the absorbed dose was calculated within PMMA, polyethylene (PE), and water head and body phantoms using EGSnrc/DOSXYZnrc, where the body PE body phantom emulated the ICRU/AAPM phantom. Beams of width 40-500 mm and beam qualities at tube potentials of 80-140 kV were studied. Application of a modified function of beam width (W) termed Gx(W), for which the cumulative dose for CBCT scans f (0) is normalized to the weighted CTDI (CTDIw) for a reference beam of width 40 mm, was investigated as a possible option. However, differences were found in Gx(W) with tube potential, especially for body phantoms, and these were considered to be due to differences in geometry between wide beams used for CBCT scans and those for conventional CT. Therefore, a modified function Gx(W)100 has been proposed, taking the form of values of f (0) at each position in a long phantom, normalized with respect to dose indices f 100(150)x measured with a 100 mm pencil ionization chamber within standard 150 mm PMMA phantoms, using the same scanning parameters, beam widths and positions within the phantom. f 100(150)x averages the dose resulting from

  15. Investigation of practical approaches to evaluating cumulative dose for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) from standard CT dosimetry measurements: a Monte Carlo study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abuhaimed, Abdullah; Martin, Colin J.; Sankaralingam, Marimuthu; Gentle, David J.

    2015-07-01

    A function called Gx(L) was introduced by the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) Report-87 to facilitate measurement of cumulative dose for CT scans within long phantoms as recommended by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) TG-111. The Gx(L) function is equal to the ratio of the cumulative dose at the middle of a CT scan to the volume weighted CTDI (CTDIvol), and was investigated for conventional multi-slice CT scanners operating with a moving table. As the stationary table mode, which is the basis for cone beam CT (CBCT) scans, differs from that used for conventional CT scans, the aim of this study was to investigate the extension of the Gx(L) function to CBCT scans. An On-Board Imager (OBI) system integrated with a TrueBeam linac was simulated with Monte Carlo EGSnrc/BEAMnrc, and the absorbed dose was calculated within PMMA, polyethylene (PE), and water head and body phantoms using EGSnrc/DOSXYZnrc, where the body PE body phantom emulated the ICRU/AAPM phantom. Beams of width 40-500 mm and beam qualities at tube potentials of 80-140 kV were studied. Application of a modified function of beam width (W) termed Gx(W), for which the cumulative dose for CBCT scans f (0) is normalized to the weighted CTDI (CTDIw) for a reference beam of width 40 mm, was investigated as a possible option. However, differences were found in Gx(W) with tube potential, especially for body phantoms, and these were considered to be due to differences in geometry between wide beams used for CBCT scans and those for conventional CT. Therefore, a modified function Gx(W)100 has been proposed, taking the form of values of f (0) at each position in a long phantom, normalized with respect to dose indices f 100(150)x measured with a 100 mm pencil ionization chamber within standard 150 mm PMMA phantoms, using the same scanning parameters, beam widths and positions within the phantom. f 100(150)x averages the dose resulting from

  16. Cumulants of Hawkes point processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jovanović, Stojan; Hertz, John; Rotter, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such processes. To do this, we represent the Hawkes process in terms of a Poisson cluster process and show how the cumulant density formulas can be derived by enumerating all possible "family trees," representing complex interactions between point events. We also consider the problem of computing the integrated cumulants, characterizing the average measure of correlated activity between events of different types, and derive the relevant equations.

  17. Origin of 78235, a lunar norite cumulate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winzer, S. R.; Nava, D. F.; Lum, R. K. L.; Schuhmann, S.; Schuhmann, P.; Philpotts, J. A.

    1975-01-01

    A chemical and petrographic study is reported of the phases from the rock 78235 which was returned on the Apollo 17 mission. Petrographic analysis of the thin sections from the bounder confirm its cumulate origin. In order to develop further the crystallization history for 78235, its subsequent shock history, and its relationship to other lunar crustal rocks, orthopyroxene, plagioclase, glass, and whole-rock samples were prepared and analyzed for major, minor, and trace elements. It is speculated that an early fractional crystallization event producing a layer of orthopyroxene-plagioclase cumulate with varying amounts of trapped liquid took place within 20 km of the surface of the moon.

  18. Cumulative Effect and Predictive Value of Genetic Variants Associated with Type 2 Diabetes in Han Chinese: A Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Yun; Lu, Feng; Dong, Meihua; Lin, Yudi; Li, Huizhang; Dai, Juncheng; Jin, Guangfu; Hu, Zhibin; Shen, Hongbing

    2015-01-01

    Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified dozens of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with type 2 diabetes risk. We have previously confirmed the associations of genetic variants in HHEX, CDKAL1, VEGFA and FTO with type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese. However, the cumulative effect and predictive value of these GWAS identified SNPs on the risk of type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese are largely unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a two-stage case-control study consisting of 2,925 cases and 3,281controls to examine the association of 30 SNPs identified by GWAS with type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese. Significant associations were found for proxy SNPs at KCNQ1 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.41, P = 9.91 × 10–16 for rs2237897], CDKN2A/CDKN2B (OR = 1.30, P = 1.34 × 10–10 for rs10811661), CENTD2 (OR = 1.28, P = 9.88 × 10-4 for rs1552224) and SLC30A8 (OR = 1.19, P = 1.43 × 10-5 for rs13266634). We further evaluated the cumulative effect on type 2 diabetes of these 4 SNPs, in combination with 5 SNPs at HHEX, CDKAL1, VEGFA and FTO reported previously. Individuals carrying 12 or more risk alleles had a nearly 4-fold increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes compared with those carrying less than 6 risk alleles [adjusted OR = 3.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.76–4.91]. Adding the genetic factors to clinical factors slightly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increasing from 0.76 to 0.78. However, the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusions/Significance We confirmed associations of SNPs in KCNQ1, CDKN2A/CDKN2B, CENTD2 and SLC30A8 with type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese. The utilization of genetic information may improve the accuracy of risk prediction in combination with clinical characteristics for type 2 diabetes. PMID:25587982

  19. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

    DOE PAGES

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

    2017-06-28

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Modelmore » Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

  20. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    DOE PAGES

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

    2017-06-28

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Modelmore » Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

  1. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  2. Six-year longitudinal study of pathways leading to explosive anger involving the traumas of recurrent conflict and the cumulative sense of injustice in Timor-Leste.

    PubMed

    Silove, Derrick; Mohsin, Mohammed; Tay, Alvin Kuowei; Steel, Zachary; Tam, Natalino; Savio, Elisa; Da Costa, Zelia Maria; Rees, Susan

    2017-08-20

    Cumulative evidence suggests that explosive anger may be a common reaction among survivors of mass conflict. However, little is known about the course of explosive anger in the years following mass conflict, or the psychosocial factors that influence the trajectory of that reaction pattern. We examined these issues in a 6-year longitudinal study (2004-2010) conducted among adult residents of a rural and an urban village in Timor-Leste (n = 1022). We derived a brief, context-specific index of explosive anger using qualitative methods. Widely used measures of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and severe psychological distress were calibrated to the Timor context. We developed an index of the cumulative sense of injustice related to consecutive historical periods associated with conflict in Timor-Leste. We applied partial structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine pathways from baseline explosive anger, socio-demographic factors, recurrent trauma, mental health indices (PTSD, severe psychological distress) and the sense of injustice, to explosive anger. Half of the sample with explosive anger at baseline continued to report that reaction pattern after 6 years; and a third of those who did not report explosive anger at baseline developed the response by follow-up. A symmetrical pattern of younger age, female gender and the trauma count for the preceding historical period predicted explosive anger at each assessment point. The sense of injustice was related to explosive anger at follow-up. Explosive anger was associated with impairment in functioning and conflict with the intimate partner and wider family. Sampling constraints caution against generalizing our findings to other populations. Nevertheless, our data suggest that explosive anger may persist for a prolonged period of time following mass conflict and that the response pattern is initiated and maintained by recurrent trauma exposure associated with a sense of injustice. Averting recurrence of mass

  3. Aeronautical Engineering: 1983 cumulative index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    This bibliography is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in NASA SP-7037 (158) through NASA SP-7037 (169) of Aeronautical Engineering: A Continuing Bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, contract, report number, and accession number indexes.

  4. Timing of increased autistic disorder cumulative incidence.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Michael E; Paul, John F

    2010-03-15

    Autistic disorder (AD) is a severe neurodevelopmental disorder typically identified in early childhood. Both genetic and environmental factors are implicated in its etiology. The number of individuals identified as having autism has increased dramatically in recent years, but whether some proportion of this increase is real is unknown. If real, susceptible populations may have exposure to controllable exogenous stressors. Using literature AD data from long-term (approximately 10-year) studies, we determined cumulative incidence of AD for each cohort within each study. These data for each study were examined for a changepoint year in which the AD cumulative incidence first increased. We used data sets from Denmark, California, Japan, and a worldwide composite of studies. In the Danish, California, and worldwide data sets, we found that an increase in AD cumulative incidence began about 1988-1989. The Japanese study (1988-1996) had AD cumulative incidence increasing continuously, and no changepoint year could be calculated. Although the debate about the nature of increasing autism continues, the potential for this increase to be real and involve exogenous environmental stressors exists. The timing of an increase in autism incidence may help in screening for potential candidate environmental stressors.

  5. Using Exposomics to Assess Cumulative Risks and Promote Health

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Martyn T.; de la Rosa, Rosemarie; Daniels, Sarah I.

    2015-01-01

    Under the exposome paradigm all non-genetic factors contributing to disease are considered to be ‘environmental’ including chemicals, drugs, infectious agents and psycho-social stress. We can consider these collectively as environmental stressors. Exposomics is the comprehensive analysis of exposure to all environmental stressors and should yield a more thorough understanding of chronic disease development. We can operationalize exposomics by studying all the small molecules in the body and their influence on biological pathways that lead to impaired health. Here, we describe methods by which this may be achieved and discuss the application of exposomics to cumulative risk assessment in vulnerable populations. Since the goal of cumulative risk assessment is to analyze, characterize, and quantify the combined risks to health from exposures to multiple agents or stressors, it seems that exposomics is perfectly poised to advance this important area of environmental health science. We should therefore support development of tools for exposomic analysis and begin to engage impacted communities in participatory exposome research. A first step may be to apply exposomics to vulnerable populations already studied by more conventional cumulative risk approaches. We further propose that recent migrants, low socioeconomic groups with high environmental chemical exposures, and pregnant women should be high priority populations for study by exposomics. Moreover, exposomics allows us to study interactions between chronic stress and environmental chemicals that disrupt stress response pathways (i.e. ‘stressogens’). Exploring the impact of early life exposures and maternal stress may be an interesting and accessible topic for investigation by exposomics using biobanked samples. PMID:26475350

  6. Cumulative Language Deficit Among Indian Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mickelson, Norma I.; Galloway, Charles G.

    The present language study, carried out by the University of Victoria and the Department of Indian Affairs during the summer of 1968, was based on the Deutsch "cumulative deficit hypothesis." (This theory has as one of its bases the idea that the lack of appropriate language stimulation in early home and school life makes success in…

  7. Cumulant Approximated Second-Order Perturbation Theory Based on the Density Matrix Renormalization Group for Transition Metal Complexes: A Benchmark Study.

    PubMed

    Phung, Quan Manh; Wouters, Sebastian; Pierloot, Kristine

    2016-09-13

    The complete active space second order perturbation theory (CASPT2) can be extended to larger active spaces by using the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) as solver. Two variants are commonly used: the costly DMRG-CASPT2 with exact 4-particle reduced density matrix (4-RDM) and the cheaper DMRG-cu(4)-CASPT2 in which the 4-cumulant is discarded. To assess the accuracy and limitations of the latter variant DMRG-cu(4)-CASPT2 we study the spin state energetics of iron porphyrin Fe(P) and its model compound FeL2, a model for the active center of NiFe hydrogenase, and manganese-oxo porphyrin MnO(P)(+); a series of excited states of chromium hexacarbonyl Cr(CO)6; and the interconversion of two Cu2O2(2+) isomers. Our results clearly show that PT2 on top of DMRG is essential in order to obtain quantitative results for transition metal complexes. Good results were obtained with DMRG-cu(4)-CASPT2 as compared to full CASPT2 and DMRG-CASPT2 in calculations with small- and medium-sized active spaces. In calculations with large-sized active spaces (∼30 active orbitals), the performance of DMRG-cu(4)-CASPT2 is less impressive due to the errors originating from both the finite number of renormalized states m and the 4-RDM approximation.

  8. Sm-Nd Age and Initial Sr-87/Sr-86 for Yamato 980318: An Old Cumulate Eucrite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nyquist, L. E.; Takeda, H.; Shih, C.-Y.; Wiesmann, H.

    2004-01-01

    The complex pyroxene exsolution texture of the Moore County cumulate eucrite was interpreted by Miyamoto and Takeda as indicating initial cooling at 160 C/Ma followed by a sudden temperature rise and final cooling at 0.35 C/yr. They suggested initial cooling at a depth of approx. 8 km near the base of Vesta s crust, followed by impact excavation to its surface. Young Sm-Nd ages of approx. 4456, 4460, and 4410 Ma, respectively, for the Moore County, Moama, and Serra de Mag cumulate eucrites are puzzling because closure to Nd isotopic exchange would occur in only a few Ma at the above initial cooling rate. The exception to young ages among the cumulate eucrites is EET87520, with a 147Sm-147 - Nd-143 age of 4547-4598 Ma. We report here initial results of a combined mineralogical/chronological study of the Yamato 980318 feldspar-cumulate eucrite.

  9. Differences in Cumulative Exposure and Adherence to Tenofovir in the VOICE, iPrEx OLE, and PrEP Demo Studies as Determined via Hair Concentrations.

    PubMed

    Koss, Catherine A; Bacchetti, Peter; Hillier, Sharon L; Livant, Edward; Horng, Howard; Mgodi, Nyaradzo; Mirembe, Brenda G; Gomez Feliciano, Kailazarid; Horn, Stephanie; Liu, Albert Y; Glidden, David V; Grant, Robert M; Benet, Leslie Z; Louie, Alexander; van der Straten, Ariane; Chirenje, Z Mike; Marrazzo, Jeanne M; Gandhi, Monica

    2017-03-02

    Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)/emtricitabine (FTC) prevented HIV acquisition among men and women in several trials and is broadly recommended. In the VOICE and FEM-PrEP trials, however, TDF/FTC-based PrEP did not prevent HIV acquisition among women in eastern and southern Africa. Tenofovir was detected in plasma, reflecting exposure and adherence in recent days, in fewer than one-third of participants. Drug concentrations in hair, which represent cumulative exposure and adherence over weeks to months, have never previously been examined among women on PrEP. We compared tenofovir hair concentrations among women assigned to oral TDF/FTC in the VOICE trial to those among men and transgender women enrolled in 2 open-label PrEP studies, the iPrEx open-label extension (OLE) study and the U.S. PrEP Demonstration Project (PrEP Demo). Tenofovir hair concentrations were detectable in 55% of person-visits in VOICE, 75% of person-visits in iPrEx OLE (p = .006), and 98% of person-visits in PrEP Demo (p < .001). Median tenofovir hair concentrations corresponded to an estimated 0.2, 2.9, and 6.0 TDF/FTC doses taken per week in the three studies, respectively. In VOICE, combining tenofovir concentration data from plasma and hair suggested inconsistent, low-level product use. Incorporation of both short- and long-term adherence measures may allow for an improved understanding of patterns of drug-taking among women during global PrEP roll-out.

  10. Influence of pretreatment systolic blood pressure on the effect of carvedilol in patients with severe chronic heart failure: the Carvedilol Prospective Randomized Cumulative Survival (COPERNICUS) study.

    PubMed

    Rouleau, Jean L; Roecker, Ellen B; Tendera, Michal; Mohacsi, Paul; Krum, Henry; Katus, Hugo A; Fowler, Michael B; Coats, Andrew J S; Castaigne, Alain; Scherhag, Armin; Holcslaw, Terry L; Packer, Milton

    2004-04-21

    We sought to evaluate the influence of pretreatment systolic blood pressure (SBP) on the efficacy and safety of carvedilol in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Although beta-blockers reduce the risk of death in CHF, there is little reported experience with these drugs in patients with a low pretreatment SBP, who may respond poorly to beta-blockade. We studied 2,289 patients with severe CHF who participated in the Carvedilol Prospective Randomized Cumulative Survival (COPERNICUS) trial. Compared with placebo, carvedilol improved the clinical status and reduced the risk of death and the combined risk of death or hospitalization for any reason, for a cardiovascular reason, or for worsening heart failure (p < 0.001 for all). The relative magnitude of these benefits did not vary as a function of the pretreatment SBP (all interaction: p > 0.10). However, because patients with the lowest SBP were at highest risk of an event, they experienced the greatest absolute benefit from treatment with carvedilol. The lower the pretreatment SBP, the more likely that patients would report an adverse event, be intolerant of high doses of the study drug, or require permanent withdrawal of treatment (p < 0.001 for all). However, these risks were primarily related to the severity of the underlying illness and not to treatment with carvedilol. The current study provides little support for concerns about using beta-blockers (particularly those with vasodilatory actions) in patients with severe CHF who have a low SBP. Pretreatment blood pressure can identify patients who have the greatest need for risk reduction with carvedilol.

  11. A Second Chance in Second Grade: The Independent and Cumulative Impact of First- and Second-Grade Reading Instruction and Students' Letter-Word Reading Skill Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Morrison, Frederick J.; Underwood, Phyllis S.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the relation of language arts instruction to students' letter-word reading skill growth from the beginning of 1st grade to the end of 2nd grade using cross-classified random effects models. Amounts of teacher-managed, code-focused instruction in 1st and 2nd grade each uniquely predicted students' letter-word reading skill…

  12. Assessment of implant cumulative survival rates in sites with different bone density and related prognostic factors: an 8-year retrospective study of 2,684 implants.

    PubMed

    He, Jing; Zhao, Baohong; Deng, Chunfu; Shang, Dehao; Zhang, Chong

    2015-01-01

    This retrospective study was set to explore the influence of local bone density (BD) on implant cumulative survival rates (ICSRs) and to assess prognostic factors associated with implant failure at sites with different BD. Between January 2005 and December 2011, 2,684 implants were placed in 1,377 patients and included in the study. Implants at sites with different BD were divided into four groups (G1 to G4) according to the Lekholm and Zarb classification, corresponding to bone types 1 to 4. ICSRs and the reasons for failure in each group were evaluated. Factors related to the local distribution of BD were also analyzed. A number of predictive variables were examined by univariate and multivariate analyses to evaluate prognostic factors and their influence on implant failure rates. In total, 45 implants were lost, resulting in ICSRs for G1 to G4 of 100%, 98.18%, 96.83%, and 92.25%, respectively. The main reasons for failure in each group were failed osseointegration and occlusal overloading. Low BD was associated with advanced age (> 50 years) and the posterior maxilla. Based on multivariate analysis, diabetes mellitus and nonthreaded implants were significant factors in the high-BD group (G2), while advanced age, smoking, nonthreaded implants, and immediate loading were risk factors for the low-BD group (G3 and G4). BD is one of the most important factors influencing the long-term ICSR, which decreases with decreasing BD values. Accurate risk evaluation for sites with different BD before implantation will be beneficial to implant survival.

  13. The association between osteoporotic hip fractures and actinic lesions as a biomarker for cumulative sun exposure in older people-a retrospective case-control study in Argentina.

    PubMed

    Perroud, H A; Dagatti, M S; Amigot, B; Levit, G P; Tomat, M F; Morosano, M E; Masoni, A M; Pezzotto, S M

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze the association between the presence of actinic lesions (solar keratosis and non-melanoma skin cancer) and osteoporotic hip fractures in older patients. Both pathologies are common conditions in this age group. Since cumulative sun exposure is difficult to quantify, the presence of actinic lesions can be used to indirectly analyze the association between ultraviolet radiation and osteoporotic hip fractures. This was an observational case-control study. We reviewed the centralized medical records of patients with hip fracture (cases, n = 51) and patients with other diseases hospitalized in the same institution and period (controls, n = 59). The mean age of the patients was 80 ± 8.3 years (range 50-103 years). Differences in maternal hip fracture history were found between cases and controls (14.8 and 8 %, respectively; p = 0.047). Falls history in the past year was higher in cases than in controls (p < 0.0001). Actinic lesions were observed in 32.7 % of patients (prevalence rate 23.5 % in cases, 40.7 % in controls; p = 0.04). When considering patients with actinic lesions, controls have a higher FRAX score compared with cases. Although sun exposure is recommended for bone health, it represents a risk factor for actinic lesions. The presence of actinic lesions may indicate a lower osteoporotic hip fracture risk. A balance between adequate lifetime sun exposure and protection against its adverse effects is required for each patient, in the context of geographic location.

  14. Forecasting landscape-scale, cumulative effects of forest management on vegetation and wildlife habitat: a case study of issues, limitations, and opportunities

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Zhaofei F. Fan

    2008-01-01

    Forest landscape disturbance and succession models have become practical tools for large-scale, long-term analyses of the cumulative effects of forest management on real landscapes. They can provide essential information in a spatial context to address management and policy issues related to forest planning, wildlife habitat quality, timber harvesting, fire effects,...

  15. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  16. Current genetic differentiation of Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehn in the Guineo-Congolian African zone: cumulative impact of ancient climatic changes and recent human activities

    PubMed Central

    Gomez, Céline; Dussert, Stéphane; Hamon, Perla; Hamon, Serge; Kochko, Alexandre de; Poncet, Valérie

    2009-01-01

    Background Among Coffea species, C. canephora has the widest natural distribution area in tropical African forests. It represents a good model for analyzing the geographical distribution of diversity in relation to locations proposed as part of the "refuge theory". In this study, we used both microsatellite (simple sequence repeat, SSR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers to investigate the genetic variation pattern of C. canephora in the Guineo-Congolean distribution zone. Results Both markers were first compared in terms of their informativeness and efficiency in a study of genetic diversity and relationships among wild C. canephora genotypes. As expected, SSR markers were found to have a higher genetic distance detection capacity than RFLP. Nevertheless, similarity matrices showed significant correlations when Mantel's test was carried out (r = 0.66, p < 0.0001). Finally, both markers were equally effective for group discrimination and phylogenetic studies, but SSR markers tended to outperform RFLP markers in discriminating the source of an individual among diversity groups and in putative hybrid detection. Five well defined genetic groups, one in the Upper Guinean forests, the four others in the Lower Guinean forests, were identified, corresponding to geographical patterning in the individuals. Conclusion Our data suggested that the Dahomey Gap, a biogeographical barrier, played a role in wild C. canephora differentiation. Climatic variations during the Pleistocene and/or Holocene probably caused the subgroup differentiation in the Congolese zone through the presence of a mosaic of putative refugia. Recent hybridization between C. canephora diversity groups, both for spontaneous individuals and cultivars, was further characterised according to their geographic dissemination or breeding history as a consequence of human activities. PMID:19607674

  17. CUMPOIS- CUMULATIVE POISSON DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The Cumulative Poisson distribution program, CUMPOIS, is one of two programs which make calculations involving cumulative poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), can be used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines the approximate cumulative binomial distribution, evaluates the cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters, and evaluates the cdf for chi-square distributions with even degrees of freedom. It can be used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. CUMPOIS calculates the probability that n or less events (ie. cumulative) will occur within any unit when the expected number of events is given as lambda. Normally, this probability is calculated by a direct summation, from i=0 to n, of terms involving the exponential function, lambda, and inverse factorials. This approach, however, eventually fails due to underflow for sufficiently large values of n. Additionally, when the exponential term is moved outside of the summation for simplification purposes, there is a risk that the terms remaining within the summation, and the summation itself, will overflow for certain values of i and lambda. CUMPOIS eliminates these possibilities by multiplying an additional exponential factor into the summation terms and the partial sum whenever overflow/underflow situations threaten. The reciprocal of this term is then multiplied into the completed sum giving the cumulative probability. The CUMPOIS program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly on most C compilers. The program format is interactive, accepting lambda and n as inputs. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMPOIS was

  18. Reaction time in adolescence, cumulative allostatic load, and symptoms of anxiety and depression in adulthood: the West of Scotland Twenty-07 Study.

    PubMed

    Gale, Catharine R; Batty, G David; Cooper, Sally-Ann; Deary, Ian J; Der, Geoff; McEwen, Bruce S; Cavanagh, Jonathan

    2015-06-01

    To examine the relation between reaction time in adolescence and subsequent symptoms of anxiety and depression and investigate the mediating role of sociodemographic measures, health behaviors, and allostatic load. Participants were 705 members of the West of Scotland Twenty-07 Study. Choice reaction time was measured at age 16. At age 36 years, anxiety and depression were assessed with the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and measurements were made of blood pressure, pulse rate, waist-to-hip ratio, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C-reactive protein, albumin, and glycosolated hemoglobin from which allostatic load was calculated. In unadjusted models, longer choice reaction time at age 16 years was positively associated with symptoms of anxiety and depression at age 36 years: for a standard deviation increment in choice reaction time, regression coefficients (95% confidence intervals) for logged GHQ score, and square-root-transformed HADS anxiety and depression scores were 0.048 (0.016-0.080), 0.064 (0.009-0.118), and 0.097 (0.032-0.163) respectively. Adjustment for sex, parental social class, GHQ score at age 16 years, health behaviors at age 36 years and allostatic load had little attenuating effect on the association between reaction time and GHQ score, but weakened those between reaction time and the HADS subscales. Part of the effect of reaction time on depression was mediated through allostatic load; this mediating role was of borderline significance after adjustment. Adolescents with slower processing speed may be at increased risk for anxiety and depression. Cumulative allostatic load may partially mediate the relation between processing speed and depression.

  19. Effect Modification of the Association of Cumulative Exposure and Cancer Risk by Intensity of Exposure and Time Since Exposure Cessation: A Flexible Method Applied to Cigarette Smoking and Lung Cancer in the SYNERGY Study

    PubMed Central

    Vlaanderen, Jelle; Portengen, Lützen; Schüz, Joachim; Olsson, Ann; Pesch, Beate; Kendzia, Benjamin; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Consonni, Dario; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Siemiatycki, Jack; Merletti, Franco; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Tardón, Adonina; Zaridze, David; Field, John K.; 't Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; McLaughlin, John; Demers, Paul; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Rudnai, Peter; Fabianova, Eleonora; Stanescu Dumitru, Rodica; Bencko, Vladimir; Foretova, Lenka; Janout, Vladimir; Boffetta, Paolo; Forastiere, Francesco; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Peters, Susan; Brüning, Thomas; Kromhout, Hans; Straif, Kurt; Vermeulen, Roel

    2014-01-01

    The indiscriminate use of the cumulative exposure metric (the product of intensity and duration of exposure) might bias reported associations between exposure to hazardous agents and cancer risk. To assess the independent effects of duration and intensity of exposure on cancer risk, we explored effect modification of the association of cumulative exposure and cancer risk by intensity of exposure. We applied a flexible excess odds ratio model that is linear in cumulative exposure but potentially nonlinear in intensity of exposure to 15 case-control studies of cigarette smoking and lung cancer (1985–2009). Our model accommodated modification of the excess odds ratio per pack-year of cigarette smoking by time since smoking cessation among former smokers. We observed negative effect modification of the association of pack-years of cigarette smoking and lung cancer by intensity of cigarette smoke for persons who smoked more than 20–30 cigarettes per day. Patterns of effect modification were similar across individual studies and across major lung cancer subtypes. We observed strong negative effect modification by time since smoking cessation. Application of our method in this example of cigarette smoking and lung cancer demonstrated that reducing a complex exposure history to a metric such as cumulative exposure is too restrictive. PMID:24355332

  20. Effect modification of the association of cumulative exposure and cancer risk by intensity of exposure and time since exposure cessation: a flexible method applied to cigarette smoking and lung cancer in the SYNERGY Study.

    PubMed

    Vlaanderen, Jelle; Portengen, Lützen; Schüz, Joachim; Olsson, Ann; Pesch, Beate; Kendzia, Benjamin; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Consonni, Dario; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Siemiatycki, Jack; Merletti, Franco; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Tardón, Adonina; Zaridze, David; Field, John K; 't Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; McLaughlin, John; Demers, Paul; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Rudnai, Peter; Fabianova, Eleonora; Stanescu Dumitru, Rodica; Bencko, Vladimir; Foretova, Lenka; Janout, Vladimir; Boffetta, Paolo; Forastiere, Francesco; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Peters, Susan; Brüning, Thomas; Kromhout, Hans; Straif, Kurt; Vermeulen, Roel

    2014-02-01

    The indiscriminate use of the cumulative exposure metric (the product of intensity and duration of exposure) might bias reported associations between exposure to hazardous agents and cancer risk. To assess the independent effects of duration and intensity of exposure on cancer risk, we explored effect modification of the association of cumulative exposure and cancer risk by intensity of exposure. We applied a flexible excess odds ratio model that is linear in cumulative exposure but potentially nonlinear in intensity of exposure to 15 case-control studies of cigarette smoking and lung cancer (1985-2009). Our model accommodated modification of the excess odds ratio per pack-year of cigarette smoking by time since smoking cessation among former smokers. We observed negative effect modification of the association of pack-years of cigarette smoking and lung cancer by intensity of cigarette smoke for persons who smoked more than 20-30 cigarettes per day. Patterns of effect modification were similar across individual studies and across major lung cancer subtypes. We observed strong negative effect modification by time since smoking cessation. Application of our method in this example of cigarette smoking and lung cancer demonstrated that reducing a complex exposure history to a metric such as cumulative exposure is too restrictive.

  1. Assessing the cumulative effects of projects using geographic information systems

    SciTech Connect

    Atkinson, Samuel F.; Canter, Larry W.

    2011-09-15

    Systems that allow users to store and retrieve spatial data, provide for analyses of spatial data, and offer highly detailed display of spatial data are referred to as geographic information systems, or more typically, GIS. Since their initial usage in the 1960s, GISs have evolved as a means of assembling and analyzing diverse data pertaining to specific geographical areas, with spatial locations of the data serving as the organizational basis for the information systems. The structure of GISs is built around spatial identifiers and the methods used to encode data for storage and manipulation. This paper examines how GIS has been used in typical environmental assessment, its use for cumulative impact assessment, and explores litigation that occurred in the United States Federal court system where GIS was used in some aspect of cumulative effects. The paper also summarizes fifteen case studies that range from area wide transportation planning to wildlife and habitat impacts, and draws together a few lessons learned from this review of literature and litigation.

  2. Cumulative Estrogen Exposure and Prospective Memory in Older Women

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hesson, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    This study looked at cumulative lifetime estrogen exposure, as estimated with a mathematical index (Index of Cumulative Estrogen Exposure (ICEE)) that included variables (length of time on estrogen therapy, age at menarche and menopause, postmenopausal body mass index, time since menopause, nulliparity and duration of breastfeeding) known to…

  3. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  4. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  5. Cumulative Estrogen Exposure and Prospective Memory in Older Women

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hesson, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    This study looked at cumulative lifetime estrogen exposure, as estimated with a mathematical index (Index of Cumulative Estrogen Exposure (ICEE)) that included variables (length of time on estrogen therapy, age at menarche and menopause, postmenopausal body mass index, time since menopause, nulliparity and duration of breastfeeding) known to…

  6. Laparoscopic versus open nephroureterectomy for the treatment of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma: a systematic review and cumulative analysis of comparative studies.

    PubMed

    Ni, Shaobin; Tao, Weiyang; Chen, Qiyin; Liu, Lianxin; Jiang, Hongchi; Hu, Hailong; Han, Ruifa; Wang, Chunyang

    2012-06-01

    Laparoscopic nephroureterectomy (LNU) has increasingly been used as a minimally invasive alternative to open nephroureterectomy (ONU), but studies comparing the efficacy and safety of the two surgical procedures are still limited. Evaluate the oncologic and perioperative outcomes of LNU versus ONU in the treatment of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma. A systematic review and cumulative analysis of comparative studies reporting both oncologic and perioperative outcomes of LNU and ONU was performed through a comprehensive search of the Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library electronic databases. All analyses were performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) v.5 (Nordic Cochrane Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark) and Meta-analysis In eXcel (MIX) 2.0 Pro (BiostatXL) software packages. Twenty-one eligible studies (1235 cases and 3093 controls) were identified. A significantly higher proportion of pTa/Tis was observed in LNU compared to ONU (27.52% vs 22.59%; p = 0.047), but there were no significant differences in other stages and pathologic grades (all p>0.05). For patients who underwent LNU, the 5-yr cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate was significantly higher, at 9% (p = 0.03), compared to those who underwent ONU, while the overall recurrence rate and bladder recurrence rate were notably lower, at 15% (p = 0.01) and 17% (p = 0.02), respectively. However, there were no statistically significant differences in 2-yr CSS, 5-yr recurrence-free survival (RFS), 5-yr overall survival (OS), 2-yr OS, and metastasis rates between LNU and ONU (all p>0.05). Moreover, there were no significant differences between LNU and ONU in terms of intraoperative complications, postoperative complications, and perioperative mortality (all p>0.05). The results of our study were mainly limited by the retrospective design of most of the individual studies included as well as selection biases based on different management of regional lymph nodes and pathologic characteristics. Our data suggest

  7. Effect of removal of duplicate isolates on cumulative susceptibility reports.

    PubMed

    White, R L; Friedrich, L V; Burgess, D S; Brown, E W; Scott, L E

    2001-04-01

    The objective of our study is to assess the impact of different methods of duplicate isolate removal on cumulative susceptibility reports. Over a 1-year period, we studied the effect of 3 methods of duplicate isolate removal on the cumulative percentage susceptibility of 9 Gram-negative bacilli to 15 antimicrobials. Raw data from which no duplicate isolates were removed (NR) were generated by the Sensititre breakpoint susceptibility testing system. D3 and D7 were methods of duplicate isolate removal defined as follows: same patient, bacterial species, irrespective of susceptibility within either three (D3) or seven (D7) calendar days of the date of the previous culture. The third method evaluated was an algorithm utilized by Cerner, a laboratory management program that defines duplicate isolates as follows: same patient, bacterial species, and NCCLS susceptibility category to an individual antimicrobial. Differences in percentage susceptibility between the three methods of duplicate isolate removal and NR were assessed. The number of isolates studied ranged from 80 (E. aerogenes) to 681 (P. aeruginosa). Of the methods of duplicate isolate removal, the highest percentage susceptibility occurred most frequently with Cerner followed by D7 and D3. Differences in percentage susceptibility between methods of removal and NR ranged from -11 to 25%, -5 to 8%, and -3 to 10%, with Cerner, D3, and D7, respectively. The percentage susceptibility was at least 5% higher than NR with a method of removal for 15 individual organism/antimicrobial combinations in which susceptibility was > or = 70% by at least one of the methods. These occurred most frequently with Enterobacter species and Cerner. Although there is no consensus on the ideal method of duplicate isolate removal, one should be cognizant that these manipulations may produce different cumulative susceptibility reports.

  8. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  9. Cumulate Fragments in Silicic Ignimbrites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, O.; Ellis, B. S.; Wolff, J.

    2014-12-01

    Increasingly, studies are concluding that silicic ignimbrites are the result of the amalgamation of multiple discrete magma batches. Yet the existence of discrete batches presents a conundrum for magma generation and storage; if silicic magma batches are not generated nearly in situ in the upper crust, they must traverse, and reside within, a thermally hostile environment with large temperature gradients, resulting in low survivability in their shallow magmatic hearths. The Snake River Plain (Idaho, USA) is a type example of this 'multi-batch' assembly with ignimbrites containing multiple populations of pyroxene crystals, glass shards, and crystal aggregates. The ubiquitous crystal aggregates hint at a mechanism to facilitate the existence of multiple, relatively small batches of rhyolite in the upper crust. These aggregates contain the same plagioclase, pyroxene, and oxide mineral compositions as single phenocrysts of the same minerals in their host rocks, but they have significantly less silicic bulk compositions and lack quartz and sanidine, which occur as single phenocrysts in the deposits. This implies significant crystallization followed by melt extraction from mushy reservoir margins. The extracted melt then continues to evolve (crystallizing sanidine and quartz) while the melt-depleted margins provide an increasingly rigid and refractory network segregating the crystal-poor batches of magma. The hot, refractory, margins insulate the crystal-poor lenses, allowing (1) extended residence in the upper crust, and (2) preservation of chemical heterogeneities among batches. In contrast, systems that produce cumulates richer in low-temperature phases (quartz, K-feldspars, and/or biotite) favour remelting upon recharge, leading to less segregation of eruptible melt pockets and the formation of gradationally zoned ignimbrites. The occurrence of similar crystal aggregates from a variety of magmatic lineages suggests the generality of this process.

  10. Longitudinal Pathways from Cumulative Contextual Risk at Birth to School Functioning in Adolescence: Analysis of Mediation Effects and Gender Moderation.

    PubMed

    January, Stacy-Ann A; Mason, W Alex; Savolainen, Jukka; Solomon, Starr; Chmelka, Mary B; Miettunen, Jouko; Veijola, Juha; Moilanen, Irma; Taanila, Anja; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta

    2017-01-01

    Children and adolescents exposed to multiple contextual risks are more likely to have academic difficulties and externalizing behavior problems than those who experience fewer risks. This study used data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (a population-based study; N = 6961; 51 % female) to investigate (a) the impact of cumulative contextual risk at birth on adolescents' academic performance and misbehavior in school, (b) learning difficulties and/or externalizing behavior problems in childhood as intervening mechanisms in the association of cumulative contextual risk with functioning in adolescence, and (c) potential gender differences in the predictive associations of cumulative contextual risk at birth with functioning in childhood or adolescence. The results of the structural equation modeling analysis suggested that exposure to cumulative contextual risk at birth had negative associations with functioning 16 years later, and academic difficulties and externalizing behavior problems in childhood mediated some of the predictive relations. Gender, however, did not moderate any of the associations. Therefore, the findings of this study have implications for the prevention of learning and conduct problems in youth and future research on the impact of cumulative risk exposure.

  11. Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas program: Cumulative effects

    SciTech Connect

    Horn, W.V.; Melancon, A.; Sun, J.

    1988-09-01

    The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) (43 U.S.C. 1331-1356) requires the Secretary of the Department of the Interior to submit an annual report to Congress assessing the cumulative environmental effects of mineral leasing and operations carried out under the OCSLA. The first report which covers the period 1954-1987 for activities off the Atlantic Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific Coast, and offshore Alaska. Although temporary and localized impacts have occurred, with the exception of some loss of wetlands in Louisiana, significant adverse cumulative impacts on the human, marine, and coastal environments have not been identified.

  12. Modeling neural activity with cumulative damage distributions.

    PubMed

    Leiva, Víctor; Tejo, Mauricio; Guiraud, Pierre; Schmachtenberg, Oliver; Orio, Patricio; Marmolejo-Ramos, Fernando

    2015-10-01

    Neurons transmit information as action potentials or spikes. Due to the inherent randomness of the inter-spike intervals (ISIs), probabilistic models are often used for their description. Cumulative damage (CD) distributions are a family of probabilistic models that has been widely considered for describing time-related cumulative processes. This family allows us to consider certain deterministic principles for modeling ISIs from a probabilistic viewpoint and to link its parameters to values with biological interpretation. The CD family includes the Birnbaum-Saunders and inverse Gaussian distributions, which possess distinctive properties and theoretical arguments useful for ISI description. We expand the use of CD distributions to the modeling of neural spiking behavior, mainly by testing the suitability of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, which has not been studied in the setting of neural activity. We validate this expansion with original experimental and simulated electrophysiological data.

  13. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predict post-traumatic stress disorder in postpartum African-American women.

    PubMed

    Hauff, Nancy J; Fry-McComish, Judith; Chiodo, Lisa M

    2017-08-01

    To describe relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and post-traumatic stress in African-American postpartum women. Cumulative trauma exposure estimates for women in the USA range from 51-69%. During pregnancy, most trauma research has focused on physical injury to the mother. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with trauma and more prevalent in African-American women than women of other groups. Knowledge about both the rate and impact of cumulative trauma on pregnancy may contribute to our understanding of women seeking prenatal care, and disparities in infant morbidity and mortality. This retrospective, correlational, cross-sectional study took place on postpartum units of two Detroit hospitals. Participants were 150 African-American women aged between 18-45 who had given birth. Mothers completed the Cumulative Trauma Scale, Conflict Tactics Scale, Clinician Administered Post-traumatic Stress Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a Demographic Data form. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. All participants reported at least one traumatic event in their lifetime. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predicted PTSD, with the trauma of a life-threatening event for a loved one reported by 60% of the sample. Nearly, one-fourth of the women screened were at risk for PTSD. Increased cumulative trauma, increased partner conflict and lower level of education were related to higher rates of PTSD symptoms. Both cumulative trauma and partner conflict in the past year predict PTSD. Reasoning was used most often for partner conflict resolution. The results of this study offer additional knowledge regarding relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and PTSD in African-American women. Healthcare providers need to be sensitive to patient life-threatening events, personal failures, abuse and other types of trauma. Current evidence supports the need to assess for

  14. Evolutionary neuroscience of cumulative culture.

    PubMed

    Stout, Dietrich; Hecht, Erin E

    2017-07-24

    Culture suffuses all aspects of human life. It shapes our minds and bodies and has provided a cumulative inheritance of knowledge, skills, institutions, and artifacts that allows us to truly stand on the shoulders of giants. No other species approaches the extent, diversity, and complexity of human culture, but we remain unsure how this came to be. The very uniqueness of human culture is both a puzzle and a problem. It is puzzling as to why more species have not adopted this manifestly beneficial strategy and problematic because the comparative methods of evolutionary biology are ill suited to explain unique events. Here, we develop a more particularistic and mechanistic evolutionary neuroscience approach to cumulative culture, taking into account experimental, developmental, comparative, and archaeological evidence. This approach reconciles currently competing accounts of the origins of human culture and develops the concept of a uniquely human technological niche rooted in a shared primate heritage of visuomotor coordination and dexterous manipulation.

  15. Evolutionary neuroscience of cumulative culture

    PubMed Central

    Stout, Dietrich; Hecht, Erin E.

    2017-01-01

    Culture suffuses all aspects of human life. It shapes our minds and bodies and has provided a cumulative inheritance of knowledge, skills, institutions, and artifacts that allows us to truly stand on the shoulders of giants. No other species approaches the extent, diversity, and complexity of human culture, but we remain unsure how this came to be. The very uniqueness of human culture is both a puzzle and a problem. It is puzzling as to why more species have not adopted this manifestly beneficial strategy and problematic because the comparative methods of evolutionary biology are ill suited to explain unique events. Here, we develop a more particularistic and mechanistic evolutionary neuroscience approach to cumulative culture, taking into account experimental, developmental, comparative, and archaeological evidence. This approach reconciles currently competing accounts of the origins of human culture and develops the concept of a uniquely human technological niche rooted in a shared primate heritage of visuomotor coordination and dexterous manipulation. PMID:28739892

  16. Cumulative live birth rates after one or more complete cycles of IVF: a population-based study of linked cycle data from 178,898 women.

    PubMed

    McLernon, David J; Maheshwari, Abha; Lee, Amanda J; Bhattacharya, Siladitya

    2016-03-01

    What is the chance of a live birth following one or more linked complete cycles of IVF (including ICSI)? The chance of a live birth after three complete cycles of IVF was 42.3% for treatment commencing from 1999 to 2007. IVF success has generally been reported on the basis of live birth rates after a single episode of treatment resulting in the transfer of a fresh embryo. This fails to capture the real chance of having a baby after a number of complete cycles-each involving the replacement of fresh as well as frozen-thawed embryos. Population-based observational cohort study of 178 898 women between 1992 and 2007. Participants included all women who commenced IVF treatment at a licenced clinic in the UK as recorded in the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) national database. Exclusion criteria included women whose treatment involved donor insemination, egg donation, surrogacy and the transfer of more than three embryos. Cumulative rates of live birth, term (>37 weeks) singleton live birth, and multiple pregnancy were estimated for two time-periods, 1992-1998 and 1999-2007. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for IVF would not have the outcome of interest while optimal estimates assumed that these women would have similar outcome rates to those who continued IVF. A total of 71 551 women commenced IVF treatment during 1992-1998 and an additional 107 347 during 1999-2007. After the third complete IVF cycle (defined as three fresh IVF treatments-including replacement of any surplus frozen-thawed embryos), the conservative CLBR in women who commenced IVF during 1992-1998 was 30.8% increasing to 42.3% during 1999-2007. The optimal CLBRs were 44.6 and 57.1%, respectively. After eight complete cycles the optimal CLBR was 82.4% in the latter time period. The conservative rate for multiple pregnancy per pregnant woman fell from 31.9% during the earlier time period to 26.2% during the latter. Linkage of all IVF treatments to

  17. Exposure to phthalates in 5-6 years old primary school starters in Germany--a human biomonitoring study and a cumulative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koch, Holger M; Wittassek, Matthias; Brüning, Thomas; Angerer, Jürgen; Heudorf, Ursel

    2011-06-01

    We determined the internal exposure of 111 German primary school starters by analyzing urinary metabolites of six phthalates: butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP), di-iso-butyl phthalate (DiBP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP) and di-iso-decylphthalate (DiDP). From the urinary metabolite levels, we calculated daily intakes and related these values to Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values. By introducing the concept of a relative cumulative Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI(cum)) value, we tried to account for the cumulative exposure to several of the above-mentioned phthalates. The TDI(cum) was derived as follows: the daily intake (DI) calculated from the metabolite level was divided by the TDI for each phthalate; this ratio was multiplied by 100% indicating the TDI percentage for which the DI accounted. Finally the % TDIs of the different phthalates were totalled to get the TDI(cum). A TDI(cum) above 100% is a potential cause for concern. We confirmed the ubiquitous exposure of the children to all phthalates investigated. Exposures were within range of levels previously reported for GerES, albeit slightly lower. Regarding daily intakes, two children exceeded the TDI for DnBP, whereas one child closely approached the TDI for DEHP. 24% of the children exceeded the TDI(cum) for the three most critical phthalates: DEHP, DnBP and DiBP. Furthermore, 54% of the children had total exposures that used up more than 50% the TDI(cum). Therefore, the overall exposure to a number of phthalates, and the knowledge that these phthalates (and other anti-androgens) act in a dose-additive manner, urgently warrants a cumulative risk assessment approach.

  18. Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Cherif, S.; Ahmed, M. A. A.; Ladrem, M.

    2016-06-10

    Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

  19. The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities

    PubMed Central

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

    2009-01-01

    Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's “Cumulative Communities Research Program” focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors (“non-chemical stressors”) into cumulative risk assessments. The products

  20. The study of the cumulative effects of the application of urban sewage sludge on an eroded soil cultivated in the Algerian steppe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutmedjet, Ahmed; Boukkaya, Nassira; Houyou, zohra; Ouakid, Mohamed; Bielders, Charles

    2014-05-01

    Since the seventies, desertification is one of the major problems faced by the Mediterranean climate regions. These problems are inherent in the soil and climate characteristics of these regions, but their magnitude and acuity depend mainly on human activities. The process of desertification that affects more and more land is more pronounced as soil degradation, which accelerates constantly reduced resources farmland and pasture. Especially in areas bordering the Sahara, as the Algerian steppe, a real belt between the Sahara and the Algerian tell As part of the study of the cumulative effect of the application of urban sewage sludge on sandy soil and culture that is a cereal (barley), we had results that enabled us to identify some precepts,. The short-term effects studied in this experiment indicate that the amendment of the sewage sludge had a beneficial effect on the fertilizing qualities of the soil and therefore the performance of barley. To observations of Culture (barley), indicate that the best grain yield was obtained with D3 (28.76 quintals / ha) and D2 (33.91 quintals / ha). This is due to the effect of the sludge by the addition of required nutrients crop production. The lowest yield (24.11 quintals / ha) being obtained for the control (D0). It is the same for straw yield, with 47.5 quintals / ha in D2. The D3 treatment (30 t / ha) has previously presented the best results, but after 3 years we noticed that the best yields are obtained with D2 (10 t / ha). Except the pH and the rate of limestone that are related to changes in the characteristics of the site, there was an improvement in some physical and chemical properties of the soil. The contributions of sewage sludge amended greater quality soil biology D2 (number and effective species collected). Increasing the organic matter content (1.45%) and electrical conductivity (0.18 microseconds / cm) in the soil is only significant for the highest dose (30t/ha), although a tendency to enrichment in

  1. Social Impact Studies: An Expository Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shields, Mark A.

    1975-01-01

    Analyzed are some selected studies on the social impact of resources development and construction projects including dams, highways, nuclear power plants and strip mines. The analytical and methodological problem of assessing differential impacts is stressed. (BT)

  2. Social Impact Studies: An Expository Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shields, Mark A.

    1975-01-01

    Analyzed are some selected studies on the social impact of resources development and construction projects including dams, highways, nuclear power plants and strip mines. The analytical and methodological problem of assessing differential impacts is stressed. (BT)

  3. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  4. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    PubMed

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning.

  5. Entanglement entropy and particle number cumulants of disordered fermions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burmistrov, I. S.; Tikhonov, K. S.; Gornyi, I. V.; Mirlin, A. D.

    2017-08-01

    We study the entanglement entropy and particle number cumulants for a system of disordered noninteracting fermions in d dimensions. We show, both analytically and numerically, that for a weak disorder the entanglement entropy and the second cumulant (particle number variance) are proportional to each other with a universal coefficient. The corresponding expressions are analogous to those in the clean case but with a logarithmic factor regularized by the mean free path rather than by the system size. We also determine the scaling of higher cumulants by analytical (weak disorder) and numerical means. Finally, we predict that the particle number variance and the entanglement entropy are nonanalytic functions of disorder at the Anderson transition.

  6. Effect of sampling frequency on estimates of cumulative nitrous oxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Parkin, Timothy B

    2008-01-01

    It is generally recognized that soil N(2)O emissions can exhibit pronounced day-to-day variations; however, measurements of soil N(2)O flux with soil chambers typically are done only at discrete points in time. This study evaluated the impact of sampling frequency on the precision of cumulative N(2)O flux estimates calculated from field measurements. Automated chambers were deployed in a corn/soybean field and used to measure soil N(2)O fluxes every 6 h from 25 Feb. 2006 through 11 Oct. 2006. The chambers were located in two positions relative to the fertilizer bands-directly over a band or between fertilizer bands. Sampling frequency effects on cumulative N(2)O-N flux estimation were assessed using a jackknife technique where populations of N(2)O fluxes were constructed from the average daily fluxes measured in each chamber. These test populations were generated by selecting measured flux values at regular time intervals ranging from 1 to 21 d. It was observed that as sampling interval increased from 7 to 21 d, variances associated with cumulative flux estimates increased. At relatively frequent sampling intensities (i.e., once every 3 d) N(2)O-N flux estimates were within +/-10% of the expected value at both sampling positions. As the time interval between sampling was increased, the deviation in estimated cumulative N(2)O flux increased, such that sampling once every 21 d yielded estimates within +60% and -40% of the actual cumulative N(2)O flux. The variance of potential fluxes associated with the between-band positions was less than the over-band position, indicating that the underlying temporal variability impacts the efficacy of a given sampling protocol.

  7. Cumulative exposure to childhood adversity, and treated attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: a cohort study of 543 650 adolescents and young adults in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Björkenstam, E; Björkenstam, C; Jablonska, B; Kosidou, K

    2017-07-25

    Though childhood adversity (CA) has been associated with the risk of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), little is known about the effect of cumulative CAs and whether there are clusters of CAs that are more closely related with ADHD. We used a Swedish cohort of 543 650 individuals born 1987-1991. Register-based CAs included familial death, substantial parental substance abuse and psychiatric disorder, substantial parental criminality, parental separation, household public assistance recipiency, and residential instability. Individuals were followed from year 2006 when they were 15-19 years of age, for treated ADHD, defined as a registered ICD diagnosis and/or prescription of medications to treat ADHD. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Latent Class Analyses (LCA) were used to identify clusters based on the different CAs. All CAs increased the odds of ADHD in late adolescence and early adulthood; ORs ranged from 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.8) for familial death to 2.7 (95% CI 2.6-2.9) for household public assistance. We found a dose-response relationship between cumulative CA and ADHD; individuals with 4+ CAs had a markedly increased risk for ADHD (OR 5.5, 95% CI 5.0-6.0). LCA analyses revealed six distinct classes of CA associated with ADHD, of which 'exposure to most adversities' entailed highest risk. CA is a strong risk factor for ADHD, particularly when accumulated. Early and efficient detection of CA is of importance for interventions targeted to improve long-term mental health outcomes among disadvantaged children.

  8. Trace element distribution in silicate phases from the cumulate mafic xenoliths of Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central): A LA-ICP-MS study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demaiffe, D.; Berger, J.; Femenias, O.; Coussaert, N.

    2003-04-01

    A large diversity of xenoliths is present in the scoria cones of the quaternary Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central). Mafic xenoliths are abundant, they are mainly gabbronorites with minor pyroxenites and anorthositic gabbros. It has been shown recently that they derived from a deep layered complex emplaced at the crust-mantle boundary during Late Permian (257+/- 6Ma). These rocks still partly show magmatic structures. However, sub-solidus recrystallisation and pyrometamorphic overprinting (while the xenoliths were taken up by the lava) have partly blurred the magmatic primary textures. The xenoliths now have polygonal and coronitic textures, so intercumulus phases cannot be easily identified. The abundance of orthopyroxene (generally missing in alkaline series), the low content of REE and trace elements and the nearly flat spidergram profiles suggest that these xenoliths are of subalkaline affinity. They commonly show mm- to cm- scale layering indicative of a cumulate origin. Positive (in whole rock plagioclase-rich gabbros) and negative (in pyroxene-rich gabbros) Eu anomalies also argue for a cumulate origin. The trace element contents (REE, Zr, Hf, Rb, Sr, Nb, Ta, Ba) of the main silicate phases (plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene and the very fine-grained coronites) have been obtained by LA-ICP-MS. Two processes control the REE content of these mafic xenoliths: 1) the degree of differentiation, which is indicated by the Mg# of the cumulus orthopyroxene; 2) the proportion of trapped interstitial liquid which is indicated by the content of highly incompatible elements (U, Th, Zr and Rb) in whole rock analyses. Plagioclases and orthopyroxenes have relatively low REE contents compared to clinopyroxene and coronitic association suggesting that they are the cumulus phases. High REE and trace element contents of clinopyroxenes and of the very fine-grained coronites point to an intercumulus origin. Moreover, in situ REE patterns show that the very fine

  9. The Contribution of Project Environmental Assessment to Assessing and Managing Cumulative Effects: Individually and Collectively Insignificant?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noble, Bram; Liu, Jialang; Hackett, Paul

    2017-04-01

    This paper explores the opportunities and constraints to project-based environmental assessment as a means to support the assessment and management of cumulative environmental effects. A case study of the hydroelectric sector is used to determine whether sufficient information is available over time through project-by-project assessments to support an adequate understanding of cumulative change. Results show inconsistency from one project to the next in terms of the components and indicators assessed, limited transfer of baseline information between project assessments over time, and the same issues and concerns being raised by review panels-even though the projects reviewed are operating in the same watershed and operated by the same proponent. Project environmental assessments must be managed, and coordinated, as part of a larger system of impact assessment, if project-by-project assessments are to provide a meaningful forum for learning and understanding cumulative change. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved project-based assessment practice in support of cumulative effects assessment and management.

  10. Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up

    PubMed Central

    HORAN, JACQUELINE M.; WIDOM, CATHY SPATZ

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning. PMID:25196178

  11. Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

    PubMed

    Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2015-08-01

    This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

  12. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    SciTech Connect

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale.

  14. Earth system responses to cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

    2015-07-01

    Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil carbon emissions and multiple climate targets are essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient responses in different climate variables are quantified for a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization and in idealized experiments using the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model. The model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte-Carlo type framework. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.88 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.28 to 2.69 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and in steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The slopes of the relationships change when CO2 is stabilized. The Transient Climate Response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models, but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

  15. Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

    PubMed

    Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

    2014-12-16

    Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

  16. Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

    2015-06-01

    The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

  17. Path dependence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrington, T.; Zickfeld, K.

    2014-06-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated the proportional relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions, yet the robustness of this relationship has not been tested over a broad range of cumulative emissions and emission rates. This study explores the path dependence of the climate and carbon cycle response using an Earth System model of intermediate complexity forced with 24 idealized emissions scenarios across five cumulative emission groups (1275-5275 GtC) with varying rates of emission. We find the century-scale climate and carbon cycle response after cessation of emissions to be approximately independent of emission pathway for all cumulative emission levels considered. The ratio of global mean temperature change to cumulative emissions - referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) - is found to be constant for cumulative emissions lower than ~1500 GtC, but to decline with higher cumulative emissions. The TCRE is also found to decrease with increasing emission rate. The response of Arctic sea ice is found to be approximately proportional to cumulative emissions, while the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) does not scale linearly with cumulative emissions, as its peak response is strongly dependent on emission rate. Ocean carbon uptake weakens with increasing cumulative emissions, while land carbon uptake displays non-monotonic behavior, increasing up to a cumulative emission threshold of ~2000 GtC and then declining.

  18. Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrington, T.; Zickfeld, K.

    2014-11-01

    Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions, yet the robustness of this relationship has not been tested over a broad range of cumulative emissions and emission rates. This study explores the path dependence of the climate and carbon cycle response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity forced with 24 idealized emissions scenarios across five cumulative emission groups (1275-5275 Gt C) with varying rates of emission. We find the century-scale climate and carbon cycle response after cessation of emissions to be approximately independent of emission pathway for all cumulative emission levels considered. The ratio of global mean temperature change to cumulative emissions - referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) - is found to be constant for cumulative emissions lower than ∼1500 Gt C but to decline with higher cumulative emissions. The TCRE is also found to decrease with increasing emission rate. The response of Arctic sea ice is found to be approximately proportional to cumulative emissions, while the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation does not scale linearly with cumulative emissions, as its peak response is strongly dependent on emission rate. Ocean carbon uptake weakens with increasing cumulative emissions, while land carbon uptake displays non-monotonic behavior, increasing up to a cumulative emission threshold of ∼2000 Gt C and then declining.

  19. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Ning; Dumas, Christophe; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Ramstein, Gilles; Contoux, Camille

    2016-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), global annual mean temperature is warmer by 2-3 degree than pre-industrial. Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to be a 50% reduction compared to nowadays [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ~ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, there is already full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. How does Greenland ice sheet evolve from a half size to a glaciation level during 3 Ma - 2.5 Ma? Data show that there is a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process. In order to diagnose whether the ice sheet build-up is an abrupt event or a cumulative process, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables to investigate waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. To reach this goal, we use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014) which combines the evolution of CO2 concentration, orbital parameters and Greenland ice sheet sizes in an off-line way by interpolating snapshots simulations. Thanks to this new method, we can build a transient like simulation through asynchronous coupling between GCM and ice sheet model. With this method, we may consistently answer the question of the build-up of Greenland: abrupt or cumulative process.

  20. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization.

    PubMed

    Matthews, H Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-09-13

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO(2) concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO(2) emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO(2) relative to other major climate forcing agents.

  1. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

    PubMed Central

    Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

  2. Properties and uses of factorial cumulants in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitazawa, Masakiyo; Luo, Xiaofeng

    2017-08-01

    We discuss properties and applications of factorial cumulants of various particle numbers and for their mixed channels measured by event-by-event analysis in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. After introducing the factorial cumulants for systems with multiparticle species, their properties are described. The uses of factorial cumulants in the study of critical fluctuations are discussed. We point out that factorial cumulants play useful roles in understanding fluctuation observables when they have underlying physics approximately described by the binomial distribution. As examples, we suggest novel utilization methods of the factorial cumulants in the study of the momentum cut and rapidity window dependences of fluctuation observables.

  3. Head Start Impact Study. Technical Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Shapiro, Gary; Broene, Pam; Jenkins, Frank; Fletcher, Philip; Quinn, Liz; Friedman, Janet; Ciarico, Janet; Rohacek, Monica; Adams, Gina; Spier, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    This Technical Report is designed to provide technical detail to support the analysis and findings presented in the "Head Start Impact Study Final Report" (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, January 2010). Chapter 1 provides an overview of the Head Start Impact Study and its findings. Chapter 2 provides technical information on the…

  4. Differential impact of cumulative SES risk on methylation of protein-protein interaction pathways as a function of SLC6A4 genetic variation in African American young adults.

    PubMed

    Beach, Steven R H; Dogan, Meeshanthini V; Brody, Gene H; Philibert, Robert A

    2014-02-01

    Exposure to cumulative SES risk in childhood may interact with variability at the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5HTTLPR) to alter DNA methylation across interacting sets of proteins. DNA was obtained from 388 African Americans at age 19. Genotype at the 5HTTLPR was determined, and methylation ratios for C-phosphate-G (CpG) residues were assessed. Exposure to cumulative SES risk was determined using repeated parental reports at ages 11-13. At high SES risk, CpG methylation patterns indicated altered cellular stress response in women, but not men, who carried a short allele at the 5HTTLPR. These changes in methylation patterns may lead to increases in mental and physical health risks. No genotype effect emerged for either women or men at low SES risk. Methylation patterns provide guidance in identifying pathways by which genetic susceptibility is transformed into adverse outcomes years later. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. 76 FR 69726 - Pyrethrins/Pyrethroid Cumulative Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-09

    ... disproportionately high and adverse human health impacts or environmental effects from exposure to the pesticides... to consider available information concerning the cumulative effects on human health resulting from... cumulative risk assessment for the naturally occurring pyrethrins and synthetic pyrethroid pesticides (often...

  6. Assessing cumulative watershed effects in the central Sierra Nevada: hillslope measurements and catchment-scale modeling

    Treesearch

    Lee H. MacDonald; Drew Coe; Sandra Litschert

    2004-01-01

    Cumulative effects result from the combined impact of multiple activities over space and time. Land and aquatic resource managers are particularly concerned with cumulative watershed effects (CWEs). CWEs can encompass a broad range of concerns, but primary issues are changes in runoff, water quality, channel morphology, and aquatic ecosystems at the watershed scale (...

  7. Childhood Cumulative Risk Exposure and Adult Amygdala Volume and Function.

    PubMed

    Evans, Gary W; Swain, James E; King, Anthony P; Wang, Xin; Javanbakht, Arash; Ho, S Shaun; Angstadt, Michael; Phan, K Luan; Xie, Hong; Liberzon, Israel

    2016-06-01

    Considerable work indicates that early cumulative risk exposure is aversive to human development, but very little research has examined the neurological underpinnings of these robust findings. This study investigates amygdala volume and reactivity to facial stimuli among adults (mean 23.7 years of age, n = 54) as a function of cumulative risk exposure during childhood (9 and 13 years of age). In addition, we test to determine whether expected cumulative risk elevations in amygdala volume would mediate functional reactivity of the amygdala during socioemotional processing. Risks included substandard housing quality, noise, crowding, family turmoil, child separation from family, and violence. Total and left hemisphere adult amygdala volumes were positively related to cumulative risk exposure during childhood. The links between childhood cumulative risk exposure and elevated amygdala responses to emotionally neutral facial stimuli in adulthood were mediated by the corresponding amygdala volumes. Cumulative risk exposure in later adolescence (17 years of age), however, was unrelated to subsequent adult amygdala volume or function. Physical and socioemotional risk exposures early in life appear to alter amygdala development, rendering adults more reactive to ambiguous stimuli such as neutral faces. These stress-related differences in childhood amygdala development might contribute to the well-documented psychological distress as a function of early risk exposure. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Do Glioma Patients Derive Any Therapeutic Benefit From Taking a Higher Cumulative Dose of Temozolomide Regimens?

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Hao; Du, Shasha; Liao, Guixiang; Xie, Xiao; Ren, Chen; Yuan, Ya Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Temozolomide (TMZ) is an oral alkylating agent with established effects on the central nervous system of glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Clinical trials have demonstrated a significant impact on overall survival (OS) with TMZ. Ever since, several TMZ regimens have been designed to improve treatment efficacy by increasing the cumulative dose per cycle. We report a meta-analysis to systematically evaluate different treatment schedules of TMZ in GBM patients. All searches that were conducted in the Cochrane library, Science Direct, and PubMed Databases, and 3 randomized controlled trials (1141 patients) were included. OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were the primary outcomes to be pooled. Unexpectedly, this analysis did not reveal any OS or PFS advantage for the high cumulative dose (HCD) regimen compared with the normal cumulative dose regimen (1141 total patients; hazard ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% CI 0.94–1.22, P = 0.31). Then after analyzing the characteristics of the results from each trial, we found that the regimen with a higher peak concentration during a short-term period (daily doses ≥150 mg/m2/d within ≤7 days/cycle) always had a more superior clinical benefit. So we generated a new pooled HR of 1.10 with a 95% CI of 0.96–1.25 (P = 0.17), which prefers the high peak concentration schedule even without a significant difference. The adverse outcome also indicates a significant increased risk of leukopenia (risk ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.03–2.46, P = 0.04) among the HCD group. Our study suggests that increasing the cumulative dose per cycle is not an ideal way to improve the efficacy of TMZ, and it will lead to increased risk for leukopenia. Future trials should be designed to examine schedules of higher peak concentration rather than the cumulative dose per cycle. PMID:25997057

  9. Multiple imputation methods for nonparametric inference on cumulative incidence with missing cause of failure

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Minjung; Dignam, James J.; Han, Junhee

    2014-01-01

    We propose a nonparametric approach for cumulative incidence estimation when causes of failure are unknown or missing for some subjects. Under the missing at random assumption, we estimate the cumulative incidence function using multiple imputation methods. We develop asymptotic theory for the cumulative incidence estimators obtained from multiple imputation methods. We also discuss how to construct confidence intervals for the cumulative incidence function and perform a test for comparing the cumulative incidence functions in two samples with missing cause of failure. Through simulation studies, we show that the proposed methods perform well. The methods are illustrated with data from a randomized clinical trial in early stage breast cancer. PMID:25043107

  10. Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

    2014-03-01

    Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact.

  11. Cumulative life course impairment in melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer.

    PubMed

    Piaserico, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Patients with skin cancer remain at risk for disease progression or relapse for many years. Therefore, skin cancer may be considered a chronic, life-threatening disease. It could impact on patients lifestyles and social and professional activities. Although no direct study of cumulative life course impairment (CLCI) in skin cancer patients has been carried out, a few studies suggest that skin cancer may strongly impair quality of life and eventually determine a significant CLCI (melanoma more than nonmelanoma skin cancer). Obviously, the life course of patients with melanoma at an advanced stage of the disease may change considerably. A number of cancer-associated problems may determine a CLCI, including familial or professional changes and a reduction of life expectancy may eventually lead to social withdrawal and depressive disorders. Even patients with a low stage disease may experience an important impairment of quality of life and in some cases a CLCI. Some skin cancer patients may have physical and psychological after effects from their cancer surgery. Several patients complain about lymphedema, discomfort experienced from wearing surgical stockings, and diminished range of physical motion postsurgery. A few are concerned about their body image due to surgical scars, and they may consider changing their job position because of the supposed negative impact of scars in visible sites on their ability to perform their job. Some female melanoma survivors may have a reduced desire of having children in the future.

  12. The Amphiolite Layers In The Cumulate Gabbros, (Northern-Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Özkan, Mutlu; Faruk Çelik, Ömer; Altıntaş, İsmail Emir; Sherlock, Sarah; Chelle-Michou, Cyril; Marzoli, Andrea; Ulianov, Alexey; Melih Çörtük, Rahmi; Topuz, Gültekin

    2016-04-01

    The Early-Middle Jurassic SSZ type dismembered ophiolite sequence, which is remnants of the Tethyan oceanic lithosphere, crop out in the accretionary complex around Tokat-Çamlıbel region (Northern Turkey). The main lithology of the ophiolite sequence are cumulate gabbros, isotropic gabbros and basalts. The amphibolite layers, which their thickness are up to 2 m, are observed in the cumulate gabbros. In this study, we aim to discuss a possible formation mechanism of the amphibolitic rocks in the cumulate gabbros, based on the field, mineralogical, geochemical and geochronological data. The cumulate gabbros (olivine-gabbro, gabbro-norite and gabbro) have generally well developed magmatic layers and they show cumulate texture. They are cross cut by pegmatite gabbros, dolerites and plagiogranite dikes. In terms of the mechanism of formation, the amphibolite layers in the cumulate gabbros are different from dolerite, pegmatite gabbro and plagiogranite dikes crosscutting the cumulate gabbros. Although the cumulate gabbros, the mafic and felsic dikes have not undergone any metamorphism (except the hydrothermal metamorphism), the amphibolite layers show well developed foliation and banded structure. Moreover, field and petrographic observations showed that the amphibolitic rocks were highly subjected to shearing. The amphibolitic rocks are mainly composed of magnesio-hornblende + plagioclase (andesine), ± biotite and opaque minerals and they exhibit nematoblastic texture. The amphibolite layers in the cumulate gabbros are crosscut by the plagiogranite dikes. The plagiogranites consist mainly of quartz, plagioclase, biotite and opaque minerals and they show granular texture. Undulose extinction and sub-grain formation in quartz minerals indicate to the presence of deformation phase affecting the plagiogranite dikes. LA-ICP-MS dating on zircon from plagiogranite dikes which is cross-cutting of the amphibolite layers, yielded Middle Jurassic ages. 40Ar/39Ar dating of

  13. Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ming; Wang, Bingyuan; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Luo, Xinping; Wang, Chongjian; Li, Linlin; Zhang, Lu; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Zhao, Jingzhi; Hu, Dongsheng

    2017-03-01

    Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increased in metabolically obese but normal-weight people. However, we have limited knowledge of how to prevent T2DM in normal-weight people. We aimed to evaluate the association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and incident T2DM among normal-weight people in rural China. We included data from 5706 people with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5-23.9 kg/m(2)) without baseline T2DM in a rural Chinese cohort followed for a median of 6.0 years. A Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the risk of incident T2DM by quartiles of TyG index and difference in TyG index between follow-up and baseline (TyG-D), estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A generalized additive plot was used to show the nonparametric smoothed exposure-response association between risk of T2DM and TyG index as a continuous variable. TyG was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride level (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose level (mg/dl)/2]. Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.48 [95% CI 1.20-5.11], 3.77 [1.83-7.79], and 5.30 [2.21-12.71], P trend < 0.001 across quartiles of TyG index). Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartile 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG-D (aHR 3.91 [2.22-6.87]). The results were consistent when analyses were restricted to participants without baseline metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose level. The generalized additive plot showed cumulative increased risk of T2DM with increasing TyG index. Risk of incident T2DM is increased with increasing TyG index among rural Chinese people, so the index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

  14. Cumulative reaction probabilities and transition state properties: a study of the H+ + H2 and H+ + D2 proton exchange reactions.

    PubMed

    Jambrina, P G; Aoiz, F J; Eyles, C J; Herrero, V J; Sáez Rábanos, V

    2009-05-14

    Cumulative reaction probabilities (CRPs) have been calculated by accurate (converged, close coupling) quantum mechanical (QM), quasiclassical trajectory (QCT), and statistical QCT (SQCT) methods for the H(+) + H(2) and H(+) + D(2) reactions at collision energies up to 1.2 eV and total angular momentum J = 0-4. A marked resonance structure is found in the QM CRP, most especially for the H(3)(+) system and J = 0. When the CRPs are resolved in their ortho and para contributions, a clear steplike structure is found associated with the opening of internal states of reactants and products. The comparison of the QCT results with those of the other methods evinces the occurrence of two transition states, one at the entrance and one at the exit. At low J values, except for the quantal resonance structure and the lack of quantization in the product channel, the agreement between QM and QCT is very good. The SQCT model, that reflects the steplike structure associated with the opening of initial and final states accurately, clearly tends to overestimate the value of the CRP as the collision energy increases. This effect seems more marked for the H(+) + D(2) isotopic variant. For sufficiently high J values, the growth of the centrifugal barrier leads to an increase in the threshold of the CRP. At these high J values the discrepancy between SQCT and QCT becomes larger and is magnified with growing collision energy. The total CRPs calculated with the QCT and SQCT methods allowed the determination of the rate constant for the H(+) + D(2) reaction. It was found that the rate, in agreement with experiment, decreases with temperature as expected for an endothermic reaction. In the range of temperatures between 200 and 500 K the differences between SQCT and QCT rate results are relatively minor. Although exact QM calculations are formidable for an exact determination of the k(T), it can be reliably expected that their value will lie between those given by the dynamical and statistical

  15. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonitoring data in 2454 individuals aged 6 years and older from the 2011-12 cycle of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The values of MCR, HI and phthalate-specific HQs were determined by calculating steady-state doses consistent with the concentrations of phthalate metabolites in urine and using Tolerable Daily Intake values.2 There were 22 individuals (0.9%) predicted to have at least one HQ value > 1 and an additional 17 (0.7%) with no HQ value > 1 but with an HI value > 1. The percent of individuals with HI values > 1 differed by age (0.9% for individuals between 6 – 17 y and 1.9% for individuals > 17 y). There is a statistically significant negative relationship between HI and MCR values in both age groups (p-values 1 and all HQs 1 were 1.1 (1.0-1.3) and 2.8 (1.1-13.7), respectively. The combined assessment found that 17/39 (43%) of the individuals with HI values > 1 are missed by chemical-by-chemical assessments of the phthalates. These findings suggest that determining combined exposures for the six phthalates has a modest impact on the predictions of the chemicals’ risks. Additional individuals with HI values >1 are identified, but HI values in these individual

  16. Cumulative effects in strategic environmental assessment: The influence of plan boundaries

    SciTech Connect

    Bidstrup, Morten; Kørnøv, Lone; Partidário, Maria Rosário

    2016-02-15

    Cumulative effects (CE) assessment is lacking quality in impact assessment (IA) worldwide. It has been argued that the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) provides a suitable IA framework for addressing CE because it is applied to developments with broad boundaries, but few have tested this claim. Through a case study on the Danish mining sector, this article explores how plan boundaries influence the analytical boundaries applied for assessing CE in SEA. The case was studied through document analysis in combination with semi-structured group interviews of the responsible planners, who also serve as SEA practitioners. It was found that CE are to some extent assessed and managed implicitly throughout the planning process. However, this is through a focus on lowering the cumulative stress of mining rather than the cumulative stress on and capacity of the receiving environment. Plan boundaries do influence CE assessment, though all boundaries are not equally influential. The geographical and time boundaries of the Danish mining plans are broad or flexible enough to accommodate a meaningful assessment of CE, but the topical boundary is restrictive. The study indicates that collaboration among planning authorities and legally appointed CE leadership may facilitate better practice on CE assessment in sector-specific SEA contexts. However, most pressing is the need for relating assessment to the receiving environment as opposed to solely the stress of a proposed plan.

  17. Cumulative risks of foster care placement for Danish children.

    PubMed

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children (especially at the beginning of the study period), the age-specific risk profiles are markedly different, with higher risks for older Danish children than for older American children.

  18. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    PubMed Central

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children (especially at the beginning of the study period), the age-specific risk profiles are markedly different, with higher risks for older Danish children than for older American children. PMID:25299657

  19. Moments from Cumulants and Vice Versa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Withers, Christopher S.; Nadarajah, Saralees

    2009-01-01

    Moments and cumulants are expressed in terms of each other using Bell polynomials. Inbuilt routines for the latter make these expressions amenable to use by algebraic manipulation programs. One of the four formulas given is an explicit version of Kendall's use of Faa di Bruno's chain rule to express cumulants in terms of moments.

  20. Moments from Cumulants and Vice Versa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Withers, Christopher S.; Nadarajah, Saralees

    2009-01-01

    Moments and cumulants are expressed in terms of each other using Bell polynomials. Inbuilt routines for the latter make these expressions amenable to use by algebraic manipulation programs. One of the four formulas given is an explicit version of Kendall's use of Faa di Bruno's chain rule to express cumulants in terms of moments.

  1. System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  2. Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  3. Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams-Wyche, Shaun

    2016-01-01

    To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

  4. SRB water impact velocity trade study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Counter, D. N.; Crockett, C. D.

    1976-01-01

    The results of the attrition/cost studies which formulated the data base for the recommendation to reduce the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster's nominal vertical water impact velocity to 85 feet per second is presented.

  5. Sierra ozone impact-assessment study. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Carroll, J.J.

    1991-06-01

    The Sierra Cooperative Ozone Impact Assessment Study (SCOIAS) is a multi-agency effort involving the University of California, Davis (UCD), U.S. Forest Service and California Air Resources Board. The objectives of the SCOIAS are to monitor air quality and foliar damage in mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada of California, and to characterize the levels of ozone that forest trees are exposed to throughout the year. In the first year, UCD established air quality monitoring stations in five National forests (NF) to measure the concentration of ozone and a number of meteorological variables (i.e., wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity). The five stations are located at: Mountain Home (Sequoia NF), Jerseydale (Sierra NF), Five-Mile (Stanislaus NF), Sly Park (El Dorado NF) and White Cloud (Tahoe NF). Through March 20, 1991, 433 site-days of data were collected, and the loss of data due to instrument malfunction was less than eight percent of the cumulative sampling period. To date, the highest ozone concentrations were observed in October 1990, when hourly averaged concentrations exceeded 100 ppbv at Mountain Home, Jerseydale and White Cloud. In winter, ozone concentrations were generally below 80 ppbv.

  6. Effect of correlations on cumulants in heavy-ion collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, D. K.; Garg, P.; Netrakanti, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    We study the effects of correlations on cumulants and their ratios of net-proton multiplicity distributions which have been measured for central (0%-5%) Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). This effect has been studied by assuming individual proton and antiproton distributions as a Poisson or negative binomial distribution (NBD). In spite of significantly correlated production due to baryon number, electric charge conservation, and kinematical correlations of protons and antiprotons, the measured cumulants of the net-proton distribution follow the independent-production model. In the present work we demonstrate how the introduction of the correlations will affect the cumulants and their ratios for the difference distributions. We have also demonstrated this study using the proton and antiproton distributions obtained from the hijing event generator.

  7. Long-term benthic monitoring studies in the freshwater portion of the Potomac River: 1983 to 1985, cumulative report. Volume 2. Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Shaughnessy, A.T.; Holland, A.F.

    1989-12-01

    The report summarizes data from the first three years of a long-term monitoring program to establish baseline conditions in benthic communities on the upper Potomac River. Major sources of variation were considered in an effort to characterize the effect of two power plants on distribution and abundance of the benthos. Distinct changes occurred in benthic communities in the vicinity of power plant discharges. These included decreased abundances of dominant species and reduced occurrences of rare species. Impacts associated with power plants were most severe during summer months and during low flow years.

  8. Long-term benthic monitoring studies in the freshwater portion of the Potomac River: 1983 to 1985, cumulative report. Volume 1. Text

    SciTech Connect

    Shaughnessy, A.T.; Holland, A.F.

    1989-12-01

    The report summarizes data from the first three years of a long-term monitoring program to establish baseline conditions in benthic communities on the upper Potomac River. Major sources of variation were considered in an effort to characterize the effect of two power plants on distribution and abundance of the benthos. Distinct changes occurred in benthic communities in the vicinity of power plant discharges. These included decreased abundances of dominant species and reduced occurrences of rare species. Impacts associated with power plants were most severe during summer months and during low flow years.

  9. Methods used for analyzing the cumulative watershed effects of fuel management on sediment in the Eastern United States

    Treesearch

    Daniel A. Marion; J. Alan Clingenpeel

    2012-01-01

    Previous chapters have described how various resource systems within a watershed can experience cumulative effects from fuel management activities like prescribed burning. As noted before, a cumulative effect is “the impact on the environment which results from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future...

  10. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    PubMed

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2017-06-01

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  11. The effects of antipoverty programs on children's cumulative level of poverty-related risk.

    PubMed

    Gassman-Pines, Anna; Yoshikawa, Hirokazu

    2006-11-01

    The authors examined the effects of antipoverty programs on children's cumulative poverty-related risk and the relationship between cumulative poverty-related risk and child outcomes among low-income families. Samples included 419 children ages 3-10 years in the New Hope program and 759 children ages 2-9 years in the Minnesota Family Investment Program (MFIP), which tested 2 program approaches. Nine poverty-related risks made up the measure of cumulative risk. Both MFIP program approaches reduced cumulative poverty-related risk. New Hope reduced cumulative poverty-related risk among long-term welfare recipients. In both New Hope and MFIP, significant linear relationships between cumulative poverty-related risk and parent-reported behavior problems and school achievement were found. Cumulative poverty-related risk partially mediated the impacts of the MFIP programs on children's behavior problems. Among long-term welfare recipients, cumulative poverty-related risk partially mediated New Hope's impact on parent-reported school achievement.

  12. Degradation studies of Martian impact craters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barlow, N. G.

    1991-01-01

    The amount of obliteration suffered by Martian impact craters is quantified by comparing measurable attributes of the current crater shape to those values expected for a fresh crater of identical size. Crater diameters are measured from profiles obtained using photoclinometry across the structure. The relationship between the diameter of a fresh crater and a crater depth, floor width, rim height, central peak height, etc. was determined by empirical studies performed on fresh Martian impact craters. We utilized the changes in crater depth and rim height to judge the degree of obliteration suffered by Martian impact craters.

  13. Study design considerations in evaluating environmental impacts

    Treesearch

    Stan T. Lebow; Paul A. Cooper; Patricia Lebow

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to make the reader aware of how choices in study parameters may influence the outcome of treated-wood environmental impact evaluations. Evaluation of the leaching and environmental accumulation of preservatives from treated wood is a complex process. and many factors can influence the results of such studies. In laboratory studies, the...

  14. Cumulative incidence of cancer after solid organ transplantation.

    PubMed

    Hall, Erin C; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Segev, Dorry L; Engels, Eric A

    2013-06-15

    Solid organ transplantation recipients have elevated cancer incidence. Estimates of absolute cancer risk after transplantation can inform prevention and screening. The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the US transplantation registry with 14 state/regional cancer registries. The authors used nonparametric competing risk methods to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer after transplantation for 2 periods (1987-1999 and 2000-2008). For recipients from 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence, stratified by organ, sex, and age at transplantation, was estimated for 6 preventable or screen-detectable cancers. For comparison, the 5-year cumulative incidence was calculated for the same cancers in the general population at representative ages using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Among 164,156 recipients, 8520 incident cancers were identified. The absolute cancer risk was slightly higher for recipients during the period from 2000 to 2008 than during the period from 1987 to 1999 (5-year cumulative incidence: 4.4% vs. 4.2%; P = .006); this difference arose from the decreasing risk of competing events (5-year cumulative incidence of death, graft failure, or retransplantation: 26.6% vs. 31.9%; P < .001). From 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was highest at extremes of age, especially in thoracic organ recipients (ages 0-34 years: range, 1.74%-3.28%; aged >50 years; range, 0.36%-2.22%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was higher for colorectal cancer (range, 0.33%-1.94%) than for the general population at the recommended screening age (aged 50 years: range, 0.25%-0.33%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was high for lung cancer among thoracic organ recipients (range, 1.16%-3.87%) and for kidney cancer among kidney recipients (range, 0.53%-0.84%). The 5-year cumulative incidence for prostate cancer and breast cancer was similar or lower in

  15. Cumulative Incidence of Cancer After Solid Organ Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Erin C.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Segev, Dorry L.; Engels, Eric A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Solid organ transplantation recipients have elevated cancer incidence. Estimates of absolute cancer risk after transplantation can inform prevention and screening. METHODS The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the US transplantation registry with 14 state/regional cancer registries. The authors used nonparametric competing risk methods to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer after transplantation for 2 periods (1987–1999 and 2000–2008). For recipients from 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence, stratified by organ, sex, and age at transplantation, was estimated for 6 preventable or screen-detectable cancers. For comparison, the 5-year cumulative incidence was calculated for the same cancers in the general population at representative ages using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. RESULTS Among 164,156 recipients, 8520 incident cancers were identified. The absolute cancer risk was slightly higher for recipients during the period from 2000 to 2008 than during the period from 1987 to 1999 (5-year cumulative incidence: 4.4% vs 4.2%; P =.006); this difference arose from the decreasing risk of competing events (5-year cumulative incidence of death, graft failure, or retransplantation: 26.6% vs 31.9%; P <.001). From 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was highest at extremes of age, especially in thoracic organ recipients (ages 0–34 years: range, 1.74%–3.28%; aged >50 years; range, 0.36%–2.22%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was higher for colorectal cancer (range, 0.33%–1.94%) than for the general population at the recommended screening age (aged 50 years: range, 0.25%–0.33%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was high for lung cancer among thoracic organ recipients (range, 1.16%–3.87%) and for kidney cancer among kidney recipients (range, 0.53%–0.84%). The 5-year cumulative incidence for prostate cancer and breast

  16. Extension of the association structure in joint models to include weighted cumulative effects.

    PubMed

    Mauff, Katya; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Nijpels, Giel; van der Heijden, Amber A W A; Rizopoulos, Dimitris

    2017-10-15

    Motivated by a study measuring diabetes-related risk factors and complications, we postulate an extension to the standard formulation of joint models for longitudinal and survival outcomes, wherein the longitudinal outcome has a cumulative effect on the hazard of the event, weighted by recency. We focus on the relationship between the biomarker HbA1c and the development of sight threatening retinopathy, since the impact of the HbA1c marker on the risk of sight threatening retinopathy is expected to be cumulative, with the evolution of the HbA1c marker over time contributing to progressively greater damage to the vascular structure of the retina. Opting for a parametric approach, we propose the use of the normal and skewed normal probability density functions as weight functions, estimating the relevant parameters directly from the data. The use of the recency-weighted cumulative effect specification allows us to incorporate differences in the development of the longitudinal profile over time in the calculation of hazard ratios between subjects. The proposed functions provide us with parameters with clinically relevant interpretations while retaining a degree of flexibility. In addition, they also allow answering of important clinical questions regarding the relative importance of various segments of the biomarkers history in the estimation of the risk of the event. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Cumulative social risk exposure, infant birthweight, and cognitive delay in infancy

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Erika R.; Poehlmann, Julie; Mullahy, John; Witt, Whitney P.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine: (1) the effect of exposure to multiple social risks on cognitive delay at nine-months of age; and (2) whether obstetric factors mediate the relationship between cumulative social risk and cognitive delay. Methods Data were from 8,950 mother-child dyads participating in the first wave of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort. Cognitive delay was defined as falling in the lowest 10% of mental scale scores from the Bayley Short Form-Research Edition. Five social risk factors were combined and categorized into a “social risk index.” Staged multivariable logistic regressions were used to investigate whether obstetric factors mediated the impact of social risk on the odds of cognitive delay. Results Infants with cognitive delay were more likely to live with social risks than infants without cognitive delay. The percentage of infants with cognitive delay increased with the number of social risks. In adjusted analyses, exposure to multiple social risk factors was associated with higher odds of cognitive delay at nine-months of age (adjusted odds ratio 2.11; 95% confidence interval: 1.18-3.78 for four or more risks versus no risks). Accounting for birthweight attenuated this relationship (p<0.001). Conclusions This is the first population-based study to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of social risk factors on cognitive delay in infancy. Findings show a significant cumulative relationship between exposure to social risk and cognitive delay, which is partly mediated by birthweight. Programs that address the social context of US infants are needed to improve their developmental trajectories. What's New National data show a significant cumulative relationship between exposure to social risks and cognitive delay in infancy, which is mediated by infant birthweight. Programs that address the social context of US infants are needed to improve their developmental trajectories. PMID:25439156

  18. Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1991-01-01

    Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45

  19. Cumulative frequency fit for particle size distribution.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhuyun; Gautam, Mridul; Mehta, Sandeep

    2002-08-01

    A cumulative frequency distribution fit method is presented for analyzing particle size distributions by minimizing the summation of the square of cumulative frequency errors. Compared to the frequency fit method, the cumulative frequency fit method yields a more accurate solution. Based upon this, a spreadsheet was developed for analyzing multi-modal particle size distribution. The motivation for the work presented in this article was the current interest in ultra-fine and nano-sized particle exhaust emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines. The new spreadsheet provides a quick and convenient way to conduct particle size distribution analysis.

  20. Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model - A case study for the Stockholm region

    SciTech Connect

    Gontier, Mikael . E-mail: gontier@kth.se

    2007-07-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) provide two interlinked platforms for the assessment of impacts on biodiversity caused by human developments. Although it might be too early to draw conclusions on the efficiency of SEA to assess such impacts, a number of persistent problems have been identified in the case of EIA. Some of these shortcomings concern the lack of proper prediction and impact quantification, and the inadequate/insufficient assessment of cumulative effects. A number of problems are related to the scale(s) at which the assessment is performed. SEA may provide a more adequate framework than EIA to discuss scale-related issues (i.e. cumulative impacts) but it also requires the use of adapted tools. This paper presents a case study where a GIS-based habitat model for the lesser spotted woodpecker is tested, validated and applied to a planning scenario in the Stockholm region in Sweden. The results show that the method adopted offers great prospects to contribute to a better assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. Even though some limitations remain in the form of data requirement and interpretation of the results, the model produced continuous, quantified predictions over the study area and provided a relevant basis for the assessment of cumulative effects. Furthermore, this paper discusses potential conflicts between different scales involved in the assessment - related to administrative boundaries, ecological processes, data availability, the method adopted to perform the assessment and temporal aspects.

  1. Comparison of Phonic Analysis and Whole Word-Reading on First Graders' Cumulative Words Read and Cumulative Reading Rate: An Extension in Examining Instructional Effectiveness and Efficiency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidgall, Melissa; Joseph, Laurice M.

    2007-01-01

    This study compared the instructional effectiveness and efficiency of three word-reading interventions on cumulative number of words read accurately and cumulative learning rate. Participants were six first graders who needed intensive intervention services. Alternating treatment designs were used to compare the effects of interspersal drill, a…

  2. Study Quality in SLA: A Cumulative and Developmental Assessment of Designs, Analyses, Reporting Practices, and Outcomes in Quantitative L2 Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plonsky, Luke

    2011-01-01

    I began this study with two assumptions. Assumption 1: Study quality matters. If the means by which researchers design, carry out, and report on their studies lack in rigor or transparency, theory and practice are likely to be misguided or at least decelerated. Assumption 2 is an implication of Assumption 1: Quality should be measured rather than…

  3. Study Quality in SLA: A Cumulative and Developmental Assessment of Designs, Analyses, Reporting Practices, and Outcomes in Quantitative L2 Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plonsky, Luke

    2011-01-01

    I began this study with two assumptions. Assumption 1: Study quality matters. If the means by which researchers design, carry out, and report on their studies lack in rigor or transparency, theory and practice are likely to be misguided or at least decelerated. Assumption 2 is an implication of Assumption 1: Quality should be measured rather than…

  4. Cumulative social risk and obesity in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Suglia, Shakira F; Duarte, Cristiane S; Chambers, Earle C; Boynton-Jarrett, Renée

    2012-05-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the relationship between cumulative social adversity and childhood obesity among preschool-aged children (N = 1605) in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. Maternal reports of intimate partner violence, food insecurity, housing insecurity, maternal depressive symptoms, maternal substance use, and father's incarceration were obtained when the child was 1 and 3 years of age. Two cumulative social risk scores were created by summing the 6 factors assessed at ages 1 and 3 years. Child height and weight were measured at 5 years of age. Logistic regression models stratified according to gender were used to estimate the association between cumulative social risk and obesity, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. Seventeen percent of children were obese at age 5 years, and 57% had at least 1 social risk factor. Adjusting for sociodemographic factors, girls experiencing high cumulative social risk (≥2 factors) at age 1 year only (odds ratio [OR]: 2.1 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-4.1]) or at 3 years only (OR: 2.2 [95% CI: 1.2-4.2]) were at increased odds of being obese compared with girls with no risk factors at either time point. Those experiencing high cumulative risk at age 1 and 3 years were not at statistically significant odds of being obese (OR: 1.9 [95% CI: 0.9-4.0]). No significant associations were noted among boys. There seems to be gender differences in the effects of cumulative social risk factors on the prevalence of obesity at 5 years of age. Understanding the social context of families could make for more effective preventive efforts to combat childhood obesity.

  5. Program for transfer research and impact studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rusnak, J.; Staskin, E. R.; Hartley, J. M.

    1973-01-01

    Research activities conducted under the program for Transfer Research and impact studies are reviewed. Programs include: Tech Brief - Technical Support Package (TSP) Program; transfer documentation; and technology transfer profiles. An analysis of user behavior patterns is made by studying questionnaires filled out by users of the Tech Brief - TSP program. The process of technology transfer is discussed in terms of improving its effectiveness.

  6. Cumulative risk: toxicity and interactions of physical and chemical stressors.

    PubMed

    Rider, Cynthia V; Boekelheide, Kim; Catlin, Natasha; Gordon, Christopher J; Morata, Thais; Selgrade, Maryjane K; Sexton, Kenneth; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Recent efforts to update cumulative risk assessment procedures to incorporate nonchemical stressors ranging from physical to psychosocial reflect increased interest in consideration of the totality of variables affecting human health and the growing desire to develop community-based risk assessment methods. A key roadblock is the uncertainty as to how nonchemical stressors behave in relationship to chemical stressors. Physical stressors offer a reasonable starting place for measuring the effects of nonchemical stressors and their modulation of chemical effects (and vice versa), as they clearly differ from chemical stressors; and "doses" of many physical stressors are more easily quantifiable than those of psychosocial stressors. There is a commonly held belief that virtually nothing is known about the impact of nonchemical stressors on chemically mediated toxicity or the joint impact of coexposure to chemical and nonchemical stressors. Although this is generally true, there are several instances where a substantial body of evidence exists. A workshop titled "Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors" held at the 2013 Society of Toxicology Annual Meeting provided a forum for discussion of research addressing the toxicity of physical stressors and what is known about their interactions with chemical stressors, both in terms of exposure and effects. Physical stressors including sunlight, heat, radiation, infectious disease, and noise were discussed in reference to identifying pathways of interaction with chemical stressors, data gaps, and suggestions for future incorporation into cumulative risk assessments.

  7. Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent efforts to update cumulative risk assessment procedures to incorporate nonchemical stressors ranging from physical to psychosocial reflect increased interest in consideration of the totality of variables affecting human health and the growing desire to develop community-based risk assessment methods. A key roadblock is the uncertainty as to how nonchemical stressors behave in relationship to chemical stressors. Physical stressors offer a reasonable starting place for measuring the effects of nonchemical stressors and their modulation of chemical effects (and vice versa), as they clearly differ from chemical stressors; and “doses” of many physical stressors are more easily quantifiable than those of psychosocial stressors. There is a commonly held belief that virtually nothing is known about the impact of nonchemical stressors on chemically mediated toxicity or the joint impact of coexposure to chemical and nonchemical stressors. Although this is generally true, there are several instances where a substantial body of evidence exists. A workshop titled “Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors” held at the 2013 Society of Toxicology Annual Meeting provided a forum for discussion of research addressing the toxicity of physical stressors and what is known about their interactions with chemical stressors, both in terms of exposure and effects. Physical stressors including sunlight, heat, radiation, infectious disease, and noise were discussed in reference to identifying pathways of interaction with chemical stressors, data gaps, and suggestions for future incorporation into cumulative risk assessments. PMID:24154487

  8. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

  9. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    PubMed

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  10. Aerospace Medicine and Biology: Cumulative index, 1979

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    This publication is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in the Supplements 190 through 201 of 'Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A Continuing Bibliography.' It includes three indexes-subject, personal author, and corporate source.

  11. Cumulative Stressors Trigger Increased Vulnerability of Diatom Communities to Additional Disturbances.

    PubMed

    Morin, Soizic; Bonet, Berta; Corcoll, Natàlia; Guasch, Helena; Bottin, Marius; Coste, Michel

    2015-10-01

    Chronic, non-lethal stressors occurring gradually (in space or time) can result in cumulative impacts that are more dramatic than higher intensities or occasional critical levels of any single one of these stressors. The negative effects of the chronic stressors trigger lasting impacts that may grow in intensity and become problematic over time and/or to higher trophic levels. In rivers, aquatic organisms experience this type of cumulative stress along the up- to downstream gradient in natural and anthropogenic contaminants generally observed in inhabited watersheds. Diatoms are a major component of the periphyton in rivers; their richness and diversity in natural communities are directly related to their varied ecological preferences and sensitivity to disturbance. In this study, we monitored from 2003 to 2008 the changes in the diversity of taxonomic and non-taxonomic features along a small river (Riou-Mort, South West France), at three sites: one site upstream considered as a reference for this watershed, one intermediate site with high nutrient load, and one downstream site exposed to both nutrient and metal pollution. The cumulative impacts of nutrients plus metals led to a gradual decrease in species richness and diversity, and in a potential capacity to cope with additional stresses, e.g., climate change-related ones. This is reflected by a decrease in species richness downstream, more dramatic in the hot summer of 2003 than in cooler summers. With the increasingly protective environmental regulations (e.g., Water Framework Directive in Europe), accumulation of stresses on aquatic resources are recommended to receive increasing attention, in particular considering the expected changes in climate.

  12. Cumulative effects of fecal contamination from combined sewer overflows: Management for source water protection.

    PubMed

    Jalliffier-Verne, Isabelle; Heniche, Mourad; Madoux-Humery, Anne-Sophie; Galarneau, Martine; Servais, Pierre; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

    2016-06-01

    The quality of a drinking water source depends largely on upstream contaminant discharges. Sewer overflows can have a large influence on downstream drinking water intakes as they discharge untreated or partially treated wastewaters that may be contaminated with pathogens. This study focuses on the quantification of Escherichia coli discharges from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and the dispersion and diffusion in receiving waters in order to prioritize actions for source water protection. E. coli concentrations from CSOs were estimated from monitoring data at a series of overflow structures and then applied to the 42 active overflow structures between 2009 and 2012 using a simple relationship based upon the population within the drainage network. From these estimates, a transport-dispersion model was calibrated with data from a monitoring program from both overflow structures and downstream drinking water intakes. The model was validated with 15 extreme events such as a large number of overflows (n > 8) or high concentrations at drinking water intakes. Model results demonstrated the importance of the cumulative effects of CSOs on the degradation of water quality downstream. However, permits are typically issued on a discharge point basis and do not consider cumulative effects. Source water protection plans must consider the cumulative effects of discharges and their concentrations because the simultaneous discharge of multiple overflows can lead to elevated E. coli concentrations at a drinking water intake. In addition, some CSOs have a disproportionate impact on peak concentrations at drinking water intakes. As such, it is recommended that the management of CSOs move away from frequency based permitting at the discharge point to focus on the development of comprehensive strategies to reduce cumulative and peak discharges from CSOs upstream of drinking water intakes.

  13. Cumulative iron dose and resistance to erythropoietin.

    PubMed

    Rosati, A; Tetta, C; Merello, J I; Palomares, I; Perez-Garcia, R; Maduell, F; Canaud, B; Aljama Garcia, P

    2015-10-01

    Optimizing anemia treatment in hemodialysis (HD) patients remains a priority worldwide as it has significant health and financial implications. Our aim was to evaluate in a large cohort of chronic HD patients in Fresenius Medical Care centers in Spain the value of cumulative iron (Fe) dose monitoring for the management of iron therapy in erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA)-treated patients, and the relationship between cumulative iron dose and risk of hospitalization. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters from EuCliD(®) (European Clinical Dialysis Database) on 3,591 patients were recorded including ESA dose (UI/kg/week), erythropoietin resistance index (ERI) [U.I weekly/kg/gr hemoglobin (Hb)] and hospitalizations. Moreover the cumulative Fe dose (mg/kg of bodyweight) administered over the last 2 years was calculated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the main predictors of ESA resistance and risk of hospitalization. Patients belonging to the 4th quartile of ERI were defined as hypo-responders. The 2-year iron cumulative dose was significantly higher in the 4th quartile of ERI. In hypo-responders, 2-year cumulative iron dose was the only iron marker associated with ESA resistance. At case-mix adjusted multivariate analysis, 2-year iron cumulative dose was an independent predictor of hospitalization risk. In ESA-treated patients cumulative Fe dose could be a useful tool to monitor the appropriateness of Fe therapy and to prevent iron overload. To establish whether the associations between cumulative iron dose, ERI and hospitalization risk are causal or attributable to selection bias by indication, clinical trials are necessary.

  14. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  15. Cumulative cultural evolution: the role of teaching.

    PubMed

    Castro, Laureano; Toro, Miguel A

    2014-04-21

    In humans, cultural transmission occurs usually by cumulative inheritance, generating complex adaptive behavioral features. Cumulative culture requires key psychological processes (fundamentally imitation and teaching) that are absent or impoverished in non-human primates. In this paper we analyze the role that teaching has played in human cumulative cultural evolution. We assume that a system of cumulative culture generates increasingly adaptive behaviors, that are also more complex and difficult to imitate. Our thesis is that, as cultural traits become more complex, cumulative cultural transmission requires teaching to ensure accurate transmission from one generation to the next. In an increasingly complex cultural environment, we consider that individuals commit errors in imitation. We develop a model of cumulative cultural evolution in a changing environment and show that these errors hamper the process of cultural accumulation. We also show that a system of teaching between parents and offspring that increases the fidelity of imitation unblocks the accumulation and becomes adaptive whenever the gain in fitness compensates the cost of teaching. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Human cumulative culture: a comparative perspective.

    PubMed

    Dean, Lewis G; Vale, Gill L; Laland, Kevin N; Flynn, Emma; Kendal, Rachel L

    2014-05-01

    Many animals exhibit social learning and behavioural traditions, but human culture exhibits unparalleled complexity and diversity, and is unambiguously cumulative in character. These similarities and differences have spawned a debate over whether animal traditions and human culture are reliant on homologous or analogous psychological processes. Human cumulative culture combines high-fidelity transmission of cultural knowledge with beneficial modifications to generate a 'ratcheting' in technological complexity, leading to the development of traits far more complex than one individual could invent alone. Claims have been made for cumulative culture in several species of animals, including chimpanzees, orangutans and New Caledonian crows, but these remain contentious. Whilst initial work on the topic of cumulative culture was largely theoretical, employing mathematical methods developed by population biologists, in recent years researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including psychology, biology, economics, biological anthropology, linguistics and archaeology, have turned their attention to the experimental investigation of cumulative culture. We review this literature, highlighting advances made in understanding the underlying processes of cumulative culture and emphasising areas of agreement and disagreement amongst investigators in separate fields.

  17. Cumulative Experiences of Violence among High-Risk Urban Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Catherine A.; Boris, Neil W.; Heller, Sherryl Scott; Clum, Gretchen A.; Rice, Janet C.; Zeanah, Charles H.

    2008-01-01

    This study examines type-specific and cumulative experiences of violence among a vulnerable population of youth. Sixty high-risk, shelter-dwelling, urban youth were interviewed regarding their history of childhood maltreatment, exposure to community violence (ECV), and experience with intimate partner violence (IPV). Results show a high prevalence…

  18. Cumulative Risk and Low-Income Children's Language Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanton-Chapman, Tina L.; Chapman, Derek A.; Kaiser, Ann P.; Hancock, Terry B.

    2004-01-01

    This study utilized an electronic data linkage method to examine the effects of risk factors present at birth on language development in preschool. The Preschool Language Scale-3 (PLS-3) was administered to 853 low-income children, and cumulative risk data were abstracted from linked birth records. At least one risk factor was present in 94% of…

  19. Cumulative Experiences of Violence among High-Risk Urban Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Catherine A.; Boris, Neil W.; Heller, Sherryl Scott; Clum, Gretchen A.; Rice, Janet C.; Zeanah, Charles H.

    2008-01-01

    This study examines type-specific and cumulative experiences of violence among a vulnerable population of youth. Sixty high-risk, shelter-dwelling, urban youth were interviewed regarding their history of childhood maltreatment, exposure to community violence (ECV), and experience with intimate partner violence (IPV). Results show a high prevalence…

  20. Modeling the cumulative watershed effects of forest management strategies

    Treesearch

    R. R. Ziemer; J. Lewis; R. M. Rice; T. E. Lisle

    1991-01-01

    Abstract - There is increasing concern over the possibility of adverse cumulative watershed effects from intensive forest management. It is impractical to address many aspects of the problem experimentally because to do so would require studying large watersheds for 100 yr or more. One such aspect is the long-term effect of forest management strategies on erosion and...

  1. MSPAP Impact Study, Volume I: Mathematics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lane, Suzanne; Parke, Carol S.; Stone, Clement A.

    The impacts of the Maryland State Performance Assessment Program (MSPAP) and the Maryland Learning Outcomes (MLOs) on curriculum, classroom instruction and assessment, professional development, and student learning were studied. Data sources were questionnaires completed by principals, mathematics teachers, and students from 90 elementary and…

  2. Head Start Impact Study: First Year Findings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Lopez, Michael

    2005-01-01

    The Congressionally-mandated Head Start Impact Study is being conducted across 84 nationally representative grantee/delegate agencies. Approximately 5,000 newly entering 3- and 4-year-old children applying for Head Start were randomly assigned to either a Head Start group that had access to Head Start program services or to a non-Head Start group…

  3. Child Care Licensing: Georgia Impact Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sibley, Annette; And Others

    The state of Georgia revised its child care licensing regulations to include more stringent staff-to-child ratios, limits on group sizes, and increases in staff training hours. This study examined the impact of these changes in child care licensing rules and regulations on the child care industry in Georgia. The sample consisted of all licensed…

  4. Prediction of adaptation difficulties by country of origin, cumulate psychosocial stressors and attitude toward integrating: a Swedish study of first-generation immigrants from Somalia, Vietnam and China.

    PubMed

    Johnsson, Ewa; Zolkowska, Krystyna; McNeil, Thomas F

    2015-03-01

    Different types of accumulated stress have been found to have negative consequences for immigrants' capacity to adapt to the new environment. It remains unclear which factors have the greatest influence. The study investigated whether immigrants' experience of great difficulty in adapting to a new country could best be explained by (1) country of origin, (2) exposure to accumulated stressors before arrival or (3) after arrival in the new country and/or (4) reserved attitude toward integrating into the new society. The 119 first-generation immigrants from Somalia, Vietnam and China, living in Malmö, Sweden, were interviewed in a standardized manner. Experiencing great difficulty in adapting to Sweden was independent of length of residence, but significantly related to all four influences, studied one at a time. Country of origin was also related to stressors and attitude. When the effects of the other influences were mutually controlled for, only exposure to accumulated stressors in Sweden (and especially experiencing discrimination/xenophobia/racism) accounted for great adaptation difficulty. Stressors in Sweden had a greater effect if the immigrant had been exposed to stressors earlier. Immigrants' long-term experiences of great difficulty in adapting to a new country were explained primarily by exposure to accumulated stressors while moving to and living in the new country, rather than by their backgrounds or attitudes toward integrating. This suggests promoting strategies to avoid discrimination and other stressors in the host country. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. Prediction of adaptation difficulties by country of origin, cumulate psychosocial stressors and attitude toward integrating: A Swedish study of first-generation immigrants from Somalia, Vietnam and China

    PubMed Central

    Zolkowska, Krystyna; McNeil, Thomas F

    2015-01-01

    Background: Different types of accumulated stress have been found to have negative consequences for immigrants’ capacity to adapt to the new environment. It remains unclear which factors have the greatest influence. Aims: The study investigated whether immigrants’ experience of great difficulty in adapting to a new country could best be explained by (1) country of origin, (2) exposure to accumulated stressors before arrival or (3) after arrival in the new country and/or (4) reserved attitude toward integrating into the new society. Methods: The 119 first-generation immigrants from Somalia, Vietnam and China, living in Malmö, Sweden, were interviewed in a standardized manner. Results: Experiencing great difficulty in adapting to Sweden was independent of length of residence, but significantly related to all four influences, studied one at a time. Country of origin was also related to stressors and attitude. When the effects of the other influences were mutually controlled for, only exposure to accumulated stressors in Sweden (and especially experiencing discrimination/xenophobia/racism) accounted for great adaptation difficulty. Stressors in Sweden had a greater effect if the immigrant had been exposed to stressors earlier. Conclusions: Immigrants’ long-term experiences of great difficulty in adapting to a new country were explained primarily by exposure to accumulated stressors while moving to and living in the new country, rather than by their backgrounds or attitudes toward integrating. This suggests promoting strategies to avoid discrimination and other stressors in the host country. PMID:24927925

  6. Acute and Cumulative Effects of Vinyasa Yoga on Affect and Stress among College Students Participating in an Eight-week Yoga Program: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Gaskins, Ronnesia B; Jennings, Ernestine; Thind, Herpreet; Becker, Bruce M; Bock, Beth C

    2014-01-01

    College students are vulnerable to a critical period in developmental maturation, facing rigorous academic work and learning how to function independently. Western aerobic exercise (WAE), such as running and bicycling, has been shown to improve mood and relieve stress. However, college students often have low levels of physical activity. Yoga is an ancient physical and mental practice that may affect mood and stress. However, rigorous studies examining the psychological effects of yoga are rare in peerreviewed Western journals. The aim of this research was to establish preliminary evidence for the acute effects of Vinyasa yoga on affect and stress in young-adult college students. Twenty healthy college students age 18 years and older were recruited to participate in this pilot study. Participants attended a Vinyasa yoga class at a local studio twice weekly for 8 weeks. Affect and stress were assessed before and after each yoga session. Measures included the Positive and Negative Affective Schedule (PANAS) and the Cohen Perceived Stress scale. Positive affect scores increased significantly (p < 0.05) for 14 of the 16 yoga sessions (mean increase = 23.2%). Negative affect decreased significantly from pre- to postyoga (p < 0.05) for 15 of the 16 sessions (mean decrease = 22%). Repeated measures ANOVAs examining pre-post composite scores across all 8 weeks showed significant changes in PANAS, but not stress scores. Findings suggest that yoga practice is associated with acute improvements in affect in a young-adult college population. Future research is needed to examine the extent to which different types of yoga address the needs of different college sub-populations (e.g., eating disordered, overweight/obese, sedentary, and smokers).

  7. NPS Gas Gun for Planar Impact Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheong Ho, Chien; Hixson, Robert

    2009-11-01

    The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) commissioned a Gas Gun for shock wave studies on 9^th October 2009, by performing the first experiment. The Gas Gun is the key element of NPS Shock Wave Research Program within the Physics Department, where well-characterized planar impacts are essential for obtaining high quality data, to characterize a solid material. This first experiment was very successful, and returned key data on the quality of the impact conditions created. The Gas Gun is designed by SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES, and the NPS spent twelve months fabricating the components of the Gas Gun and six months assembling the Gas Gun. Three inch projectile are launched at velocities up to 0.5 km/s, creating high pressure and temperature states that can be used to characterize the fundamental response of relevant materials to dynamic loading. The projectile is launched from a `wrap around' gas breech where helium gas is pressurized to relatively low pressure. This gas is used to accelerate the projectile down a 3m barrel. Upon impact, the speed of the projectile and the flatness of the impact is measured, via a stepped circular pin array circuit. The next stage of development for the Gas Gun is to integrate a Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR). The VISAR sees all the waves that flow through the target plate as a result of the impact. This is a key diagnostic for determining material properties under dynamic loading conditions.

  8. Hypervelocity Impact Studies on Solar Cell Modules

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.; Best, Stevie R.

    2001-01-01

    Space environmental effects have caused severe problems as satellites move toward increased power and operating voltage levels. The greatest unknown, however, is the effect of high velocity micrometeoroid impacts on high voltage arrays (>200V). Understanding such impact phenomena is necessary for the design of future reliable, high voltage solar arrays, especially for Space Solar Power applications. Therefore, the objective of this work was to study the effect of hypervelocity impacts on high voltage solar arrays. Initially, state of the art, 18% efficient GaAs solar cell strings were targeted. The maximum bias voltage on a two-cell string was -200 V while the adjacent string was held at -140 V relative to the plasma potential. A hollow cathode device provided the plasma. Soda lime glass particles 40-120 micrometers in diameter were accelerated in the Hypervelocity Impact Facility to velocities as high as 11.6 km/sec. Coordinates and velocity were obtained for each of the approximately 40 particle impact sites on each shot. Arcing did occur, and both discharging and recharging of arcs between the two strings was observed. The recharging phenomena appeared to stop at approximately 66V string differential. No arcing was observed at 400 V on concentrator cell modules for the Stretched Lens Array.

  9. The relations among cumulative risk, parenting, and behavior problems during early childhood.

    PubMed

    Trentacosta, Christopher J; Hyde, Luke W; Shaw, Daniel S; Dishion, Thomas J; Gardner, Frances; Wilson, Melvin

    2008-11-01

    This study examined relations among cumulative risk, nurturant and involved parenting, and behavior problems across early childhood. Cumulative risk, parenting, and behavior problems were measured in a sample of low-income toddlers participating in a family-centered program to prevent conduct problems. Path analysis was utilized to examine longitudinal relations among these constructs, with results supporting an indirect effect of cumulative risk on externalizing and internalizing problems through nurturant and involved parenting. Results highlight the importance of cumulative risk during early childhood, and particularly the effect that the level of contextual risk can have on the parenting context during this developmental period.

  10. Cumulative hip contact stress predicts osteoarthritis in DDH.

    PubMed

    Mavcic, Blaz; Iglic, Ales; Kralj-Iglic, Veronika; Brand, Richard A; Vengust, Rok

    2008-04-01

    Hip stresses are generally believed to influence whether a hip develops osteoarthritis (OA); similarly, various osteotomies have been proposed to reduce contact stresses and the risk of OA. We asked whether elevated hip contact stress predicted osteoarthritis in initially asymptomatic human hips. We identified 58 nonoperatively treated nonsubluxated hips with developmental dysplasia (DDH) without symptoms at skeletal maturity; the control group included 48 adult hips without hip disease. The minimum followup was 20 years (mean, 29 years; range, 20-41 years). Peak contact stress was computed with the HIPSTRESS method using anteroposterior pelvic radiographs at skeletal maturity. The cumulative contact stress was determined by multiplying the peak contact stress by age at followup. We compared WOMAC scores and radiographic indices of OA. Dysplastic hips had higher mean peak contact and higher mean cumulative contact stress than normal hips. Mean WOMAC scores and percentage of asymptomatic hips in the study group (mean age 51 years) were similar to those in the control group (mean age 68 years). After adjusting for gender and age, the cumulative contact stress, Wiberg center-edge angle, body mass index, but not the peak contact stress, independently predicted the final WOMAC score in dysplastic hips but not in normal hips. Cumulative contact stress predicted early hip OA better than the Wiberg center-edge angle. Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  11. Relationship of Serum Vitamin D Concentrations and Allostatic Load as a Measure of Cumulative Biological Risk among the US Population: A Cross-Sectional Study

    PubMed Central

    Frei, Regina; Haile, Sarah R.; Mutsch, Margot; Rohrmann, Sabine

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The allostatic load (AL) index is a multi-systemic measure of physiologic dysregulation known to be associated with chronic exposure to stress and adverse health outcomes. We examined the relationship between AL and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration in non-institutionalized US adults. Methods Data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94) were used to calculate two versions of AL including 9 biomarkers and another two with 14 biomarkers (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, serum cholesterol, serum HDL-cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin, sex-specific waist-to-hip ratio, serum albumin, and serum C-reactive protein for AL1, and, additionally body mass index, serum triglyceride, serum creatinine, and serum herpes I & II antibodies for AL2), each set defined by predefined cut-offs or by quartiles. Serum vitamin D concentration was ranked into quartiles. Logistic regression, Poisson regression and linear regression were used to examine the association of serum 25(OH)D concentrations on AL, after adjusting for biological, physiological, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and health variables. Results Odds Ratios (OR) for high AL of the lowest 25(OH)D serum quartile were between 1.45 (95% CI: 1.28, 1.67) and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.39, 2.32) for the fully adjusted model, depending on AL version. Inverse relationships between vitamin D serum concentrations were observed for all AL versions and every adjustment. This relationship was consistent after stratification by sex, age or ethnic background. Sensitivity to low 25(OH)D concentrations was highest among the youngest group (20–39 years) with an OR of 2.11 (95% CI: 1.63, 2.73) for the lowest vitamin D quartile Q1. Conclusions Vitamin D had a consistent and statistically significant inverse association with all tested models of high AL, which remained consistent after adjusting for biological, socioeconomic, lifestyle and health variables. Our study

  12. Towards Greenland Glaciation: Cumulative or Abrupt Transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, N.; Ramstein, G.; Contoux, C.; Ladant, J. B.; Dumas, C.; Donnadieu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The insolation evolution [Laskar 2004] from 4 to 2.5 Ma depicts a series of three summer solstice insolation minima between 2.7 and 2.6 Ma, but there are other more important summer solstice minima notably around 3.82 and 3.05 Ma. On such a time span of more than 1 Ma, data shows that there are variations in the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration with a local maximum around 3 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011], before a decrease between 3 and 2.6 Ma. The latter, suggesting an abrupt ice sheet inception around 2.7 Ma, has been shown to be a major culprit for the full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2014, in review] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, with surviving ice during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process in the first place, which could further lead to full glaciation at 2.7 Ma. Through a new tri-dimensional interpolation method implemented within the asynchronous coupling between an atmosphere ocean general circulation model (IPSL-CM5A) and an ice sheet model (GRISLI), we investigate the transient evolution of Greenland ice sheet during the Pliocene to diagnose whether the ice sheet inception is an abrupt event or rather a cumulative process, involving waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. ReferencesBartoli, G., Hönisch, B., & Zeebe, R. E. (2011). Atmospheric CO2 decline during the Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations. Paleoceanography, 26(4). Contoux C, Dumas C, Ramstein G, Jost A, Dolan A. M. (2014) Modelling Greenland Ice sheet inception and sustainability during the late Pliocene. (in review for Earth and Planetary Science Letters.).Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., & Levrard, B. (2004). A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 428

  13. FEASIBILITY STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of studying potential effects of climate change on impairments resulting from nitrogen loadings in the salt water embayments of Cape Cod. The report includes a recommended plan for studying these impacts, an estimate of the costs and level of effort required; a tally of data, information, and modeling requirements; an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the plan; and recommendations for the appropriate use of results. Study to determine feasibility of studying climate change effects on nitrogen impaired estuarine embayments

  14. Cumulative and current exposure to potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals and development of chronic kidney disease in HIV-positive individuals with a normal baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate: a prospective international cohort study.

    PubMed

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael; Fux, Christoph A; Reiss, Peter; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Philippe; Monforte, Antonella d'Arminio; Kirk, Ole; Ryom, Lene

    2016-01-01

    Whether or not the association between some antiretrovirals used in HIV infection and chronic kidney disease is cumulative is a controversial topic, especially in patients with initially normal renal function. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between duration of exposure to antiretrovirals and the development of chronic kidney disease in people with initially normal renal function, as measured by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In this prospective international cohort study, HIV-positive adult participants (aged ≥16 years) from the D:A:D study (based in Europe, the USA, and Australia) with first eGFR greater than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) were followed from baseline (first eGFR measurement after Jan 1, 2004) until the occurrence of one of the following: chronic kidney disease; last eGFR measurement; Feb 1, 2014; or final visit plus 6 months (whichever occurred first). Chronic kidney disease was defined as confirmed (>3 months apart) eGFR lower than 60 mL/min per 1·73 m(2). The primary outcome was the occurrence of chronic kidney disease. Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate of chronic kidney disease associated with cumulative exposure to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, ritonavir-boosted atazanavir, ritonavir-boosted lopinavir, other ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors, or abacavir. Between Jan 1, 2004, and July 26, 2013, 23,905 eligible individuals from the D:A:D study were included. Participants had a median baseline eGFR of 110 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) (IQR 100-125), a median age of 39 years (33-45), and median CD4 cell count of 441 cells per mm(3) (294-628). During a median follow-up of 7·2 years (IQR 5·1-8·9), 285 (1%) of 23,905 people developed chronic kidney disease (incidence 1·76 per 1000 person-years of follow-up [95% CI 1·56-1·97]). After adjustment, we recorded a significant increase in chronic kidney disease associated with each additional year of exposure to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate

  15. Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.

    PubMed

    Laratte, Bertrand; Guillaume, Bertrand; Kim, Junbeum; Birregah, Babiga

    2014-05-15

    This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Cumulative family risks across income levels predict deterioration of children's general health during childhood and adolescence.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yi-Ching; Seo, Dong-Chul

    2017-01-01

    Family is considered an important agent in the health development of children. This process is significant but quite complex because the prevalence of potential risk factors in the family can hinder children's health. This study examined if multiple family risks might have cumulative effect on children and youth's health across various levels of household income. The data in this study were drawn from the 2011-2012 U.S. National Survey of Children's Health (N = 79,601). A cumulative family risk (CFR) index was developed, which included such constructs as single-parenthood, unstable employment, large family, parenting stress, poor maternal education, poor maternal general health and poor maternal mental health. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that CFR level was significantly related to children and youth's poor health outcome (p < .001). When poverty levels were considered, however, the impact of CFRs on children and youth's health was attenuated. The impact of CFRs was higher on children and youth from affluent families than on those from poor families. Overall there was a consistent pattern of trend in the point estimate as well as confidence limits as levels of affluence and numbers of family risk increased although some of the confidence intervals overlapped. Living in disadvantaged families might serve as a protective factor against CFRs possibly through repeated exposure to hardships and subsequent formation of resilience among some of the disadvantaged children.

  17. Cumulative achievement testing: progress testing in reverse.

    PubMed

    Swanson, D B; Holtzman, K Z; Butler, A

    2010-01-01

    This collaborative project between the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) and Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) School of Medicine explored the design and use of cumulative achievement tests in basic science education. In cumulative achievement testing, integrative end-of-unit tests are deliberately constructed to systematically retest topics covered in previous units as well as material from the just-completed unit. CWRU faculty developed and administered a series of six web-based cumulative achievement tests using retired United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) step 1 test material and tools provided by NBME's Customized Assessment Services, and trends in student performance were examined as the new CWRU basic science curriculum unfolded. This article provides the background information about test design and administration, as well as samples of score reporting information for students and faculty. While firm conclusions about the effectiveness of cumulative achievement testing are not warranted after a pilot test at a single school, preliminary results suggest that cumulative achievement testing may be an effective complement to progress testing, with the former used to encourage retention of already-covered material and the latter used to assess growth toward the knowledge and skills expected of a graduating student.

  18. Two new constraints for the cumulant matrix

    SciTech Connect

    Ramos-Cordoba, Eloy; Salvador, Pedro; Matito, Eduard; Piris, Mario

    2014-12-21

    We suggest new strict constraints that the two-particle cumulant matrix should fulfill. The constraints are obtained from the decomposition of 〈S-^{sup 2}〉, previously developed in our laboratory, and the vanishing number of electrons shared by two non-interacting fragments. The conditions impose stringent constraints into the cumulant structure without any need to perform an orbital optimization procedure thus carrying very small or no computational effort. These constraints are tested on the series of Piris natural orbital functionals (PNOF), which are among the most accurate ones available in the literature. Interestingly, even though all PNOF cumulants ensure correct overall 〈S{sup ^2}〉 values, none of them is consistent with the local spin structure of systems that dissociate more than one pair of electrons. A careful analysis of the local spin components reveals the most important missing contributions in the cumulant expression thus suggesting a means to improve PNOF5. The constraints provide an inexpensive tool for the construction and testing of cumulant structures that complement previously known conditions such as the N-representability or the square of the total spin angular momentum, 〈S{sup ^2}〉.

  19. The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

    PubMed

    Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

    2002-01-01

    This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

  20. Cumulative trauma disorders among California veterinarians.

    PubMed

    Berry, Steven L; Susitaival, Päivikki; Ahmadi, Abbas; Schenker, Marc B

    2012-09-01

    The prevalence of cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) in veterinarians has not been adequately studied. A questionnaire was sent to 2,000 California veterinarians in 1997; the return rate was 73% (n = 1,415). Ninety-six percent (1,353) of the respondents were professionally active and were included in the analyses. Sixty-four percent were male and 90% were working full-time. One-fourth of the respondents reported a CTD during their career that required treatment or restricted usual activities. Two-thirds of those reporting CTDs reported chronic or residual problems. In a multivariate regression analysis female sex, working full-time, rectal palpations, and large animal practice were significant risk factors for CTDs. Being in large animal practice increased the CTD risk for both women and men whether they worked full or part-time. CTD risk was highest in women working full-time and doing 80% rectal palpations. Preventive methods to attenuate the risk of CTDs especially in large animal practice should be investigated. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Bringing science into river systems cumulative effects assessment practice

    SciTech Connect

    Seitz, Nicole E.; Westbrook, Cherie J.; Noble, Bram F.

    2011-04-15

    Fast-paced watershed change, driven by anthropogenic development, is threatening the sustainability of freshwater resources across the globe. Developments within watersheds interact in a manner that is additive and synergistic over space and time. Such cumulative environmental effects are defined as the results of actions that are individually minor but collectively significant when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions. Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) then is broadly defined as the process of evaluating the potential impacts of such collective actions on the environment and is a requirement in many countries, including in Canada at the federal level under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. However, current approaches to CEA for river systems are proving to be ineffective, which is largely attributed to the disconnect between CEA science and practice. We highlight this gap herein by discussing contradictions in the CEA literature, challenges in quantifying cumulative interactions, including overcoming spatiotemporal scale issues, multiple hydrologic and ecological pathways, and lack of predictive analysis. Our analysis shows there is a need for improved CEA for river systems, and in responding to this need we propose a conceptual framework for better integrating science and practice for improved CEA for river systems using one of the most adversely affected rivers basins in Canada, the Athabasca River, as our model. We conclude by addressing the challenges inherent to CEA with the intent of providing scientists with ways to help improve CEA of river systems.

  2. Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

    2015-12-01

    The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

  3. Use of a crop and job specific exposure matrix for estimating cumulative exposure to triazine herbicides among females in a case-control study in the Central Valley of California.

    PubMed

    Young, H A; Mills, P K; Riordan, D; Cress, R

    2004-11-01

    To determine if a job exposure matrix (JEM) could be developed using the California Department of Pesticide Regulation Pesticide Usage Database in conjunction with crop, time, and county specific self reported work history and to determine if this was a feasible method to obtain exposure estimates to triazine herbicides. Agricultural work histories were gathered from women enrolled in a population based case-control study of ovarian cancer cases and random controls. The work histories were used in conjunction with the database to construct job exposure matrices which took into account weightings for job type, work location, and crop. Cumulative exposure estimates were determined for 98 study subjects. Mean exposure estimates were similar for cases and controls. The exposure estimates were robust and insensitive to varying job weight assumptions. The estimates from the original weights were highly correlated with those constructed using the conservative and maximum weights. Estimates from all three schemes produced similar multivariate age adjusted odds ratios comparing cases and controls. There was a high degree of agreement in categorised quartiles of exposure between the original and conservative, and original and maximum weights. The exposure estimate from the JEM provides a ranking of exposure within the study population that can be utilised as an "exposure score" with which to compare groups. Although it is not an absolute exposure measurement, it does offer a substantial advance over dichotomous categories based on self report of herbicide use, particularly when subjects are unlikely to recall specific names and dates of use of herbicides.

  4. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  5. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  6. Health-related quality of life in portuguese SLE patients: an outcome measure independent of disease activity and cumulative damage.

    PubMed

    Duarte, Cátia; Abreu, Pedro; Couto, Maura; Vaz, Cláudia; Malcata, Armando; Inês, Luís

    2010-01-01

    To evaluate quality of life in Portuguese patients with Systemic Lupus Erithematosus (SLE) and its correlation with disease activity and cumulative damage. We included consecutive SLE patients, fulfilling the 1997 ACR Classification Criteria for SLE and followed at the Rheumatology Department of the University Hospital of Coimbra, Portugal at time of visit to the outpatient clinic. Quality of life was evaluated using the patient self-assessment questionnaire Medical Outcomes Survey Short Form-36 (SF-36) (validated Portuguese version). The consulting rheumatologist fulfilled the SLE associated indexes for cumulative damage (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics- Damage Index: SLICC/ACR-DI) and disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index: SLEDAI 2000). Correlation between SLEDAI and SLICC and SF-36 was tested with the Spearman Coefficient. Significant level considered was 0.05. The study included 133 SLE patients (90.2% female, mean age - 40.7 years, mean disease duration - 8.7 years). Most patients presented low disease activity (mean SLEDAI = 4.23) and limited cumulative damage (mean SLICC = 0.76). Despite that, SF-36 mean scores were below 70% in all eight domains of the index. Physical function domains showed lower scores than mental function domains. The QoL in this group of patients is significantly impaired when compared with the reference Portuguese population (p<0.05 in all domains). There was no correlation between clinical activity or cumulative damage and quality of life. QoL is significantly compromised in this group of SLE patients, but not related with disease activity or damage. These findings suggest that disease activity, cumulative damage and QoL are independent outcome measures and should all be used to assess the full impact of disease in SLE patients.

  7. Aging and Cumulative Inequality: How Does Inequality Get Under the Skin?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferraro, Kenneth F.; Shippee, Tetyana Pylypiv

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: This article draws from cumulative disadvantage and life course theories to develop a new theory for the social scientific study of aging. Design and Methods: Five axioms of "cumulative inequality (CI) theory" are articulated to identify how life course trajectories are influenced by early and accumulated inequalities but can be modified…

  8. College Students' Memory for Unannounced Cumulative Items on the Final Exam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aagaard, Lola; Templeton, Jenny; Conner, Timothy W., II; Skidmore, Ronald L.

    2014-01-01

    Although there has been much published research on the benefits of distributed practice (Cepeda, Pashler, Vul, Wixted, & Rohrer, 2006) and the testing effect (Eisenkraemer, Jaeger, & Stein, 2013), very few studies are available regarding cumulative testing in college courses. Those available show a benefit to cumulative testing (Lawrence,…

  9. A Multimethodological Analysis of Cumulative Risk and Allostatic Load among Rural Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Gary W.

    2003-01-01

    This study modeled physical and psychosocial aspects of home environment and personal characteristics in a cumulative risk heuristic. Found that elevated cumulative risk was associated with heightened cardiovascular and neuroendocrine parameters, increased deposition of body fat, and higher summary index of total allostatic load. Replicated…

  10. Aging and Cumulative Inequality: How Does Inequality Get Under the Skin?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferraro, Kenneth F.; Shippee, Tetyana Pylypiv

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: This article draws from cumulative disadvantage and life course theories to develop a new theory for the social scientific study of aging. Design and Methods: Five axioms of "cumulative inequality (CI) theory" are articulated to identify how life course trajectories are influenced by early and accumulated inequalities but can be modified…

  11. Simulating the cumulative effects of multiple forest management strategies on landscape measures of forest sustainability

    Treesearch

    Eric J. Gustafson; David E. Lytle; Randy Swaty; Craig Loehle

    2007-01-01

    While the cumulative effects of the actions of multiple owners have long been recognized as critically relevant to efforts to maintain sustainable forests at the landscape scale, few studies have addressed these effects. We used the HARVEST timber harvest simulator to predict the cumulative effects of four owner groups (two paper companies, a state forest and non-...

  12. Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

    PubMed

    Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous.

  13. Cumulative childhood stress and autoimmune diseases in adults.

    PubMed

    Dube, Shanta R; Fairweather, DeLisa; Pearson, William S; Felitti, Vincent J; Anda, Robert F; Croft, Janet B

    2009-02-01

    To examine whether childhood traumatic stress increased the risk of developing autoimmune diseases as an adult. Retrospective cohort study of 15,357 adult health maintenance organization members enrolled in the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) Study from 1995 to 1997 in San Diego, California, and eligible for follow-up through 2005. ACEs included childhood physical, emotional, or sexual abuse; witnessing domestic violence; growing up with household substance abuse, mental illness, parental divorce, and/or an incarcerated household member. The total number of ACEs (ACE Score range = 0-8) was used as a measure of cumulative childhood stress. The outcome was hospitalizations for any of 21 selected autoimmune diseases and 4 immunopathology groupings: T- helper 1 (Th1) (e.g., idiopathic myocarditis); T-helper 2 (Th2) (e.g., myasthenia gravis); Th2 rheumatic (e.g., rheumatoid arthritis); and mixed Th1/Th2 (e.g., autoimmune hemolytic anemia). Sixty-four percent reported at least one ACE. The event rate (per 10,000 person-years) for a first hospitalization with any autoimmune disease was 31.4 in women and 34.4 in men. First hospitalizations for any autoimmune disease increased with increasing number of ACEs (p < .05). Compared with persons with no ACEs, persons with >or=2 ACEs were at a 70% increased risk for hospitalizations with Th1, 80% increased risk for Th2, and 100% increased risk for rheumatic diseases (p < .05). Childhood traumatic stress increased the likelihood of hospitalization with a diagnosed autoimmune disease decades into adulthood. These findings are consistent with recent biological studies on the impact of early life stress on subsequent inflammatory responses.

  14. Program for transfer research and impact studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rusnak, J. J.; Freeman, J. E.; Hartley, J. M.; Kottenstette, J. P.; Staskin, E. R.

    1973-01-01

    Research activities conducted under the Program for Transfer Research and Impact Studies (TRIS) during 1972 included: (1) preparation of 10,196 TSP requests for TRIS application analysis; (2) interviews with over 500 individuals concerning the technical, economic, and social impacts of NASA-generated technology; (3) preparation of 38 new technology transfer example files and 101 new transfer cases; and (4) maintenance of a technology transfer library containing more than 2,900 titles. Six different modes of technology utilization are used to illustrate the pervasiveness of the transfer and diffusion of aerospace innovations. These modes also provide a basis for distinguishing the unique characteristics of the NASA Technology Utilization Program. An examination is reported of the ways in which NASA-generated technology is contributing to beneficial social change in five major areas of human concern: health, environment, safety, transportation, and communication.

  15. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  16. Aerospace Medicine and Biology: 1983 cumulative index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    This publication is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in the Supplements 242 through 253 of Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A Continuing Bibliography. It includes six indexes--subject, personal author, corporate source, contract number, report number, and accession number.

  17. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  18. Calculation of the Poisson cumulative distribution function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Nolty, Robert G.; Scheuer, Ernest M.

    1990-01-01

    A method for calculating the Poisson cdf (cumulative distribution function) is presented. The method avoids computer underflow and overflow during the process. The computer program uses this technique to calculate the Poisson cdf for arbitrary inputs. An algorithm that determines the Poisson parameter required to yield a specified value of the cdf is presented.

  19. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  20. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  1. Cumulative Disadvantage among the Highly Ambitious.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClelland, Katherine

    1990-01-01

    Using a social reproduction theory framework, analyzes the process by which high school seniors aspiring to high-level positions are sorted out after graduation. Analyzes early educational attainments and changes in occupational expectations. Shows a process of cumulative disadvantage in which White males are more likely to achieve their goals.…

  2. Pavlovian conditioning and cumulative reinforcement rate.

    PubMed

    Harris, Justin A; Patterson, Angela E; Gharaei, Saba

    2015-04-01

    In 5 experiments using delay conditioning of magazine approach with rats, reinforcement rate was varied either by manipulating the mean interval between onset of the conditioned stimulus (CS) and unconditioned stimulus (US) or by manipulating the proportion of CS presentations that ended with the US (trial-based reinforcement rate). Both manipulations influenced the acquisition of responding. In each experiment, a specific comparison was made between 2 CSs that differed in their mean CS-US interval and in their trial-based reinforcement rate, such that the cumulative reinforcement rate-the cumulative duration of the CS between reinforcements-was the same for the 2 CSs. For example, a CS reinforced on 100% of trials with a mean CS-US interval of 60 s was compared with a CS reinforced on 33% of trials and a mean duration of 20 s. Across the 5 experiments, conditioning was virtually identical for the 2 CSs with matched cumulative reinforcement rate. This was true as long as the timing of the US was unpredictable and, thus, response rates were uniform across the length of the CS. We conclude that the effects of CS-US interval and of trial-based reinforcement rate are reducible entirely to their common effect on cumulative reinforcement rate. We discuss the implications of this for rate-based, trial-based, and real-time associative models of conditioning. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-01-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke. PMID:28167816

  4. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  5. Incorporating cumulative effects into environmental assessments of mariculture: Limitations and failures of current siting methods

    SciTech Connect

    King, Sarah C. Pushchak, Ronald

    2008-11-15

    Assessing and evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple marine aquaculture facilities has proved difficult in environmental assessment. A retrospective review of 23 existing mariculture farms in southwestern New Brunswick was conducted to determine whether cumulative interactions would have justified site approvals. Based on current scientific evidence of cumulative effects, six new criteria were added to a set of far-field impacts and other existing criteria were expanded to include regional and cumulative environmental impacts in Hargrave's [Hargrave BT. A traffic light decision system for marine finfish aquaculture siting. Ocean Coast Manag 2002; 45:215-35.] Traffic Light Decision Support System (DSS) presently used in Canadian aquaculture environmental assessments. Before mitigation, 19 of the 23 sites failed the amended set of criteria and after considering mitigation, 8 sites failed. Site and ecosystem indices yielded varying site acceptability scores; however, many sites would not have been approved if siting decisions had been made within a regional management framework and cumulative impact criteria were considered in the site evaluation process.

  6. Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

    PubMed Central

    Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Siqueira, Joao Bosco; Parente, Mirian Perpetua Palha Dias; Zara, Ana Laura de Sene Amancio; Oliveira, Consuelo Silva; Braga, Cynthia; Pimenta, Fabiano Geraldo; Cortes, Fanny; Lopez, Juan Guillermo; Bahia, Luciana Ribeiro; Mendes, Marcia Costa Ooteman; da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado; de Siqueira Filha, Noemia Teixeira; Constenla, Dagna; de Souza, Wayner Vieira

    2015-01-01

    Background Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. Methods We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recover