Science.gov

Sample records for cumulative impacts study

  1. Study on the cumulative impact of reclamation activities on ecosystem health in coastal waters.

    PubMed

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Zheng, Wei; Li, Fen; Peng, Shitao; Ding, Dewen

    2016-02-15

    The purpose of this study is to develop feasible tools to investigate the cumulative impact of reclamations on coastal ecosystem health, so that the strategies of ecosystem-based management can be applied in the coastal zone. An indicator system and model were proposed to assess the cumulative impact synthetically. Two coastal water bodies, namely Laizhou Bay (LZB) and Tianjin coastal waters (TCW), in the Bohai Sea of China were studied and compared, each in a different phase of reclamations. Case studies showed that the indicator scores of coastal ecosystem health in LZB and TCW were 0.75 and 0.68 out of 1.0, respectively. It can be concluded that coastal reclamations have a historically cumulative effect on benthic environment, whose degree is larger than that on aquatic environment. The ecosystem-based management of coastal reclamations should emphasize the spatially and industrially intensive layout.

  2. Public service impacts of geothermal development: cumulative impacts study of the Geysers KGRA. Final staff report

    SciTech Connect

    Matthews, K.M.

    1983-07-01

    The number of workers currently involved in the various aspects of geothermal development in the Geysers are identified. Using two different development scenarios, projections are made for the number of power plants needed to reach the electrical generation capacity of the steam resource in the Geysers. The report also projects the cumulative number of workers needed to develop the steam field and to construct, operate, and maintain these power plants. Although the number of construction workers fluctuates, most are not likely to become new, permanent residents of the KGRA counties. The administrative and public service costs of geothermal development to local jurisdications are examined, and these costs are compared to geothermal revenues accruing to the local governments. Revenues do not cover the immediate fiscal needs resulting from increases in local road maintenance and school enrollment attributable to geothermal development. Several mitigation options are discussed and a framework presented for calculating mitigation costs for school and road impacts.

  3. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... analysis should identify the cause and effect relationships, determine the magnitude and significance of... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on... cumulative effects analysis. (c) A suggested cumulative effects approach is as follows: (1) Identify...

  4. 40 CFR 1508.7 - Cumulative impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cumulative impact. 1508.7 Section 1508.7 Protection of Environment COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY TERMINOLOGY AND INDEX § 1508.7 Cumulative impact. Cumulative impact is the impact on the environment which results from the...

  5. The Interacting Axes of Environmental, Health, and Social Justice Cumulative Impacts: A Case Study of the Blueberry River First Nations

    PubMed Central

    Gislason, Maya K; Andersen, Holly K

    2016-01-01

    We consider the case of intensive resource extractive projects in the Blueberry River First Nations in Northern British Columbia, Canada, as a case study. Drawing on the parallels between concepts of cumulative environmental and cumulative health impacts, we highlight three axes along which to gauge the effects of intensive extraction projects. These are environmental, health, and social justice axes. Using an intersectional analysis highlights the way in which using individual indicators to measure impact, rather than considering cumulative effects, hides the full extent by which the affected First Nations communities are impacted by intensive extraction projects. We use the case study to contemplate several mechanisms at the intersection of these axes whereby the negative effects of each not only add but also amplify through their interactions. For example, direct impact along the environmental axis indirectly amplifies other health and social justice impacts separately from the direct impacts on those axes. We conclude there is significant work still to be done to use cumulative indicators to study the impacts of extractive industry projects—like liquefied natural gas—on peoples, environments, and health. PMID:27763548

  6. The Interacting Axes of Environmental, Health, and Social Justice Cumulative Impacts: A Case Study of the Blueberry River First Nations.

    PubMed

    Gislason, Maya K; Andersen, Holly K

    2016-10-18

    We consider the case of intensive resource extractive projects in the Blueberry River First Nations in Northern British Columbia, Canada, as a case study. Drawing on the parallels between concepts of cumulative environmental and cumulative health impacts, we highlight three axes along which to gauge the effects of intensive extraction projects. These are environmental, health, and social justice axes. Using an intersectional analysis highlights the way in which using individual indicators to measure impact, rather than considering cumulative effects, hides the full extent by which the affected First Nations communities are impacted by intensive extraction projects. We use the case study to contemplate several mechanisms at the intersection of these axes whereby the negative effects of each not only add but also amplify through their interactions. For example, direct impact along the environmental axis indirectly amplifies other health and social justice impacts separately from the direct impacts on those axes. We conclude there is significant work still to be done to use cumulative indicators to study the impacts of extractive industry projects-like liquefied natural gas-on peoples, environments, and health.

  7. Cumulative impacts study of The Geysers KGRA: public-service impacts of geothermal development

    SciTech Connect

    Matthews, K.M.

    1982-05-01

    Geothermal development in The Geysers KGRA has affected local public services and fiscal resources in Sonoma, Lake, Mendocino, and Napa counties. Each of these counties underwent rapid population growth between 1970 and 1980, some of which can be attributed to geothermal development. The number of workers currently involved in the various aspects of geothermal development in The Geysers is identified. Using three different development scenarios, projections are made for the number of power plants needed to reach the electrical generation capacity of the steam resource in The Geysers. The report also projects the cumulative number of workers needed to develop the steam field and to construct, operate, and maintain these power plants. Although the number of construction workers fluctuates, most are not likely to become new, permanent residents of the KGRA counties. The administrative and public service costs of geothermal development to local jurisdictions are examined and compared to geothermal revenues accruing to the local governments. Revenues do not cover the immediate fiscal needs resulting from increases in local road maintenance and school enrollment attributable to geothermal development. Several mitigation options are discussed, and a framework is presented for calculating mitigation costs per unit of public service.

  8. Methodological Considerations in Screening for Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Study in California

    PubMed Central

    August, Laura Meehan; Faust, John B.; Cushing, Lara; Zeise, Lauren; Alexeeff, George V.

    2012-01-01

    Polluting facilities and hazardous sites are often concentrated in low-income communities of color already facing additional stressors to their health. The influence of socioeconomic status is not considered in traditional models of risk assessment. We describe a pilot study of a screening method that considers both pollution burden and population characteristics in assessing the potential for cumulative impacts. The goal is to identify communities that warrant further attention and to thereby provide actionable guidance to decision- and policy-makers in achieving environmental justice. The method uses indicators related to five components to develop a relative cumulative impact score for use in comparing communities: exposures, public health effects, environmental effects, sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors. Here, we describe several methodological considerations in combining disparate data sources and report on the results of sensitivity analyses meant to guide future improvements in cumulative impact assessments. We discuss criteria for the selection of appropriate indicators, correlations between them, and consider data quality and the influence of choices regarding model structure. We conclude that the results of this model are largely robust to changes in model structure. PMID:23202671

  9. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

    PubMed

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

  10. Do discourse global coherence and cumulated information impact on sentence syntactic processing? An event-related brain potentials study.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Gutiérrez, David; Jiménez-Ortega, Laura; Fondevila, Sabela; Casado, Pilar; Muñoz, Francisco; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed at exploring how two main primarily semantic factors of discourse comprehension, namely global coherence and amount of information cumulated across a passage, may impact on the sentential syntactic processing. This was measured in two event-related brain potentials (ERP) to grammatical (morphosyntactic) violations: anterior negativities (LAN) and posterior positivities (P600). Global coherence did not yield any significant effects on either ERP component, although it appeared advantageous to the detection of morphosyntactic errors. Anterior negativities were also unaffected by the amount of cumulated information. Accordingly, it seems that first-pass syntactic processes are unaffected by these discourse variables. In contrast, the first portion of the P600 was significantly modulated (increased) by the latter factor. This probably reflects bigger efforts to combine sentential information during situations highly demanding for working memory. Our results would suggest that processes involved in global discourse coherence appear relatively independent of the on-line syntactic and combinatorial mechanisms reflected in the LAN and the P600 components of the ERPs.

  11. An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

    1988-09-01

    Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

  12. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision...

  13. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision...

  14. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision...

  15. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision...

  16. Impact of field of study, college and year on calculation of cumulative grade point average.

    PubMed

    Trail, Carla; Reiter, Harold I; Bridge, Michelle; Stefanowska, Patricia; Schmuck, Marylou; Norman, Geoff

    2008-08-01

    A consistent finding from many reviews is that undergraduate Grade Point Average (uGPA) is a key predictor of academic success in medical school. Curiously, while uGPA has established predictive validity, little is known about its reliability. For a variety of reasons, medical schools use different weighting schemas to combine years of study. Additional concerns relate to the equivalence of grades obtained from different fields of study and institutions, with little hard data to guide conclusions. At the Michael G. DeGroote School of Medicine Class of 2007 at McMaster University, every undergraduate grade of 2,138 applicants, along with field of study and post-secondary educational institution, was analyzed. Individual grades were aggregated into an overall uGPA using published algorithms from several medical school, and correlated with a non-weighted sum. Correlations of the different schemas with equal weights ranged from 0.973 to 0.990. The extent of the difference between fields of study was small, accounting for only 1.5% of the variance. However, differences among 16 Ontario universities were larger, and accounted for 9.3% of the variance. The results of this study suggest that all weighting schemas are virtually equivalent, making any formulation reasonable. Differences by field of study are small, but do not show any bias against non-science students. Differences by institution are larger, amounting to a range in average score from 78.7 to 84.6; however it is not clear whether this reflects candidate ability or institutional policy, so attempts to correct for institution may be difficult.

  17. Impact of Field of Study, College and Year on Calculation of Cumulative Grade Point Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trail, Carla; Reiter, Harold I.; Bridge, Michelle; Stefanowska, Patricia; Schmuck, Marylou; Norman, Geoff

    2008-01-01

    A consistent finding from many reviews is that undergraduate Grade Point Average (uGPA) is a key predictor of academic success in medical school. Curiously, while uGPA has established predictive validity, little is known about its reliability. For a variety of reasons, medical schools use different weighting schemas to combine years of study.…

  18. Documentation of cumulative impacts in environmental impact statements

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, T.A.; Canter, L.W.

    1997-11-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations in the United States require federal agencies to apply an environmental impact assessment (EIA) in decision-making related to their actions. One aspect requires an examination of direct, indirect and cumulative impacts (CIs). Historically, cumulative impact assessment (CIA) has been given limited attention in EIA and resultant environmental impact statements (EISs), not because of its lack of importance, but owing to limitations in methodologies and procedures, including documentation consistency. The objectives of this study were to identify deficiencies in the documentation of CIs and CIA in EISs and to formulate appropriate recommendations (potential solutions) related to such deficiencies. The study involved the systematic review of 33 EISs. The results indicate that improvements have been made in documentation practices since 1990; however, inconsistencies and inadequacies still exist. Therefore, the following recommendations were developed: (1) CIs should be reported in a separate part of the Environmental Consequences section, and they should be addressed for each pertinent environmental resource; (2) a summary of CIs should be included; (3) any CIs considered not significant should be mentioned plus the reason(s) for their non-significance; (4) spatial and temporal boundaries addressed within the CIA process should be defined for pertinent environmental resources; and (5) utilized guidelines and methodologies should be described.

  19. Serious, minor, and non-delinquents in early adolescence: the impact of cumulative risk and promotive factors. The TRAILS study.

    PubMed

    van der Laan, André M; Veenstra, René; Bogaerts, Stefan; Verhulst, Frank C; Ormel, Johan

    2010-04-01

    This study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of temperament, family and school factors in preadolescence were examined on different groups of delinquents (based on self-report) in early adolescence. Data from the first two waves of the TRAILS study (N = 2,230) were used. The results provide evidence for a compensatory model that assumes main effects of risk and promotive factors on problem behavior. Accumulation of risks in preadolescence promoted being a serious delinquent in early adolescence, with the strongest effects for temperament. Accumulation of promotive effects decreased being a delinquent and supported being a non-delinquent. Furthermore, evidence is found for a counter-balancing effect of cumulative promotive and risk factors. Exposure to more promotive domains in the relative absence of risk domains decreased the percentage of serious delinquents. Our results did not support a protective model. Implications for prevention and intervention are discussed.

  20. A feasibility study on assessing public health impacts of cumulative air pollution reduction activities in a small geographic area

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background and Objective: The rnain objective ofthis study was to examine the feasibility ofconducting a local (e.g., city level) assessment ofthe public health impacts ofcumulative air pollution reduction activities (a.k.a. accountability) from the federal, state, local and vo...

  1. Cumulative impacts of mountaintop mining on an Appalachian watershed.

    PubMed

    Lindberg, T Ty; Bernhardt, Emily S; Bier, Raven; Helton, A M; Merola, R Brittany; Vengosh, Avner; Di Giulio, Richard T

    2011-12-27

    Mountaintop mining is the dominant form of coal mining and the largest driver of land cover change in the central Appalachians. The waste rock from these surface mines is disposed of in the adjacent river valleys, leading to a burial of headwater streams and dramatic increases in salinity and trace metal concentrations immediately downstream. In this synoptic study we document the cumulative impact of more than 100 mining discharge outlets and approximately 28 km(2) of active and reclaimed surface coal mines on the Upper Mud River of West Virginia. We measured the concentrations of major and trace elements within the tributaries and the mainstem and found that upstream of the mines water quality was equivalent to state reference sites. However, as eight separate mining-impacted tributaries contributed their flow, conductivity and the concentrations of selenium, sulfate, magnesium, and other inorganic solutes increased at a rate directly proportional to the upstream areal extent of mining. We found strong linear correlations between the concentrations of these contaminants in the river and the proportion of the contributing watershed in surface mines. All tributaries draining mountaintop-mining-impacted catchments were characterized by high conductivity and increased sulfate concentration, while concentrations of some solutes such as Se, Sr, and N were lower in the two tributaries draining reclaimed mines. Our results demonstrate the cumulative impact of multiple mines within a single catchment and provide evidence that mines reclaimed nearly two decades ago continue to contribute significantly to water quality degradation within this watershed.

  2. No evidence for a cumulative impact effect on concussion injury threshold.

    PubMed

    Eckner, James T; Sabin, Matthew; Kutcher, Jeffrey S; Broglio, Steven P

    2011-10-01

    Recent studies using a helmet-based accelerometer system (Head Impact Telemetry System [HITS]) have demonstrated that concussions result from a wide range of head impact magnitudes. Variability in concussion thresholds has been proposed to result from the cumulative effect of non-concussive head impacts prior to injury. We used the HITS to collect biomechanical data representing >100,000 head impacts in 95 high school football players over 4 years. The cumulative impact histories prior to 20 concussive impacts in 19 athletes were compared to the cumulative impact histories prior to the three largest magnitude non-concussive head impacts in the same athletes. No differences were present in any impact history variable between the concussive and non-concussive high magnitude impacts. These analyses included the number of head impacts, cumulative HIT severity profile value, cumulative linear acceleration, and cumulative rotational acceleration during the same practice or game session, as well as over the 30 min and 1 week preceding these impacts. Our data do not support the proposal that impact volume or intensity influence concussion threshold in high school football athletes.

  3. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    PubMed

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  4. Cumulative head impact burden in high school football.

    PubMed

    Broglio, Steven P; Eckner, James T; Martini, Douglas; Sosnoff, Jacob J; Kutcher, Jeffrey S; Randolph, Christopher

    2011-10-01

    Impacts to the head are common in collision sports such as football. Emerging research has begun to elucidate concussion tolerance levels, but sub-concussive impacts that do not result in clinical signs or symptoms of concussion are much more common, and are speculated to lead to alterations in cerebral structure and function later in life. We investigated the cumulative number of head impacts and their associated acceleration burden in 95 high school football players across four seasons of play using the Head Impact Telemetry System (HITS). The 4-year investigation resulted in 101,994 impacts collected across 190 practice sessions and 50 games. The number of impacts per 14-week season varied by playing position and starting status, with the average player sustaining 652 impacts. Linemen sustained the highest number of impacts per season (868); followed by tight ends, running backs, and linebackers (619); then quarterbacks (467); and receivers, cornerbacks, and safeties (372). Post-impact accelerations of the head also varied by playing position and starting status, with a seasonal linear acceleration burden of 16,746.1g, while the rotational acceleration and HIT severity profile burdens were 1,090,697.7 rad/sec(2) and 10,021, respectively. The adolescent athletes in this study clearly sustained a large number of impacts to the head, with an impressive associated acceleration burden as a direct result of football participation. These findings raise concern about the relationship between sub-concussive head impacts incurred during football participation and late-life cerebral pathogenesis, and justify consideration of ways to best minimize impacts and mitigate cognitive declines.

  5. Cumulative Head Impact Burden in High School Football

    PubMed Central

    Eckner, James T.; Martini, Douglas; Sosnoff, Jacob J.; Kutcher, Jeffrey S.; Randolph, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Impacts to the head are common in collision sports such as football. Emerging research has begun to elucidate concussion tolerance levels, but sub-concussive impacts that do not result in clinical signs or symptoms of concussion are much more common, and are speculated to lead to alterations in cerebral structure and function later in life. We investigated the cumulative number of head impacts and their associated acceleration burden in 95 high school football players across four seasons of play using the Head Impact Telemetry System (HITS). The 4-year investigation resulted in 101,994 impacts collected across 190 practice sessions and 50 games. The number of impacts per 14-week season varied by playing position and starting status, with the average player sustaining 652 impacts. Linemen sustained the highest number of impacts per season (868); followed by tight ends, running backs, and linebackers (619); then quarterbacks (467); and receivers, cornerbacks, and safeties (372). Post-impact accelerations of the head also varied by playing position and starting status, with a seasonal linear acceleration burden of 16,746.1g, while the rotational acceleration and HIT severity profile burdens were 1,090,697.7 rad/sec2 and 10,021, respectively. The adolescent athletes in this study clearly sustained a large number of impacts to the head, with an impressive associated acceleration burden as a direct result of football participation. These findings raise concern about the relationship between sub-concussive head impacts incurred during football participation and late-life cerebral pathogenesis, and justify consideration of ways to best minimize impacts and mitigate cognitive declines. PMID:21787201

  6. Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

  7. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

    2015-01-15

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process.

  8. Experimental approaches to studying cumulative cultural evolution

    PubMed Central

    Caldwell, Christine A.; Atkinson, Mark; Renner, Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    In humans, cultural traditions often change in ways which increase efficiency and functionality. This process, widely referred to as cumulative cultural evolution, sees beneficial traits preferentially retained, and it is so pervasive that we may be inclined to take it for granted. However, directional change of this kind appears to distinguish human cultural traditions from behavioural traditions that have been documented in other animals. Cumulative culture is therefore attracting an increasing amount of attention within psychology, and researchers have begun to develop methods of studying this phenomenon under controlled conditions. These studies have now addressed a number of different questions, including which learning mechanisms may be implicated, and how the resulting behaviours may be influenced by factors such as population structure. The current article provides a synopsis of some of these studies, and highlights some of the unresolved issues in this field. PMID:27397972

  9. A SYNOPTIC APPROACH FOR ASSESSING CUMULATIVE IMPACTS TO WETLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US Environmental Protection Agency's Wetlands Research Program has developed the synoptic approach as a proposed method for assessing cumulative impacts to wetlands by providing both a general and a comprehensive view of the environment. It can also be applied more broadly to...

  10. Cumulative impacts of oil fields on northern Alaskan landscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Binnian, Emily F.; Everett, K.R.; Lederer, N.D.; Nordstrand, E.A.; Walker, M.D.

    1987-01-01

    Proposed further developments on Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain raise questions about cumulative effects on arctic tundra ecosystems of development of multiple large oil fields. Maps of historical changes to the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field show indirect impacts can lag behind planned developments by many years and the total area eventually disturbed can greatly exceed the planned area of construction. For example, in the wettest parts of the oil field (flat thaw-lake plains), flooding and thermokarst covered more than twice the area directly affected by roads and other construction activities. Protecting critical wildlife habitat is the central issue for cumulative impact analysis in northern Alaska. Comprehensive landscape planning with the use of geographic information system technology and detailed geobotanical maps can help identify and protect areas of high wildlife use.

  11. Assessing the cumulative impact of disturbance on canopy structure and chemistry in Appalachian forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deel, Lindsay N.

    Eastern forests experience a range of disturbance events over time, from stand-replacing disturbances, such as clear cuts, to ephemeral disturbances, such as insect outbreaks. By understanding the cumulative impact of disturbances on canopy structure and chemistry, we can gain insight into management strategies, assess a variety of ecosystem services, and even contribute to a larger body of knowledge on global climate change. I transformed a series of Landsat images spanning approximately 25 years into cumulative disturbance maps covering Green Ridge State Forest and Savage River State Forest in western Maryland. Intensive field surveys collected during the summer of 2009 provided measurements of canopy N and estimates of canopy cover, understory cover, and leaf cover. I used AVIRIS imagery flown concurrently with field data collection to map canopy nitrogen across both forests. Through this project, I tested the impact of cumulative disturbance on forest canopy cover and canopy nitrogen. I found that increased values of cumulative disturbance had a measurable negative impact on forest canopy structure and canopy nitrogen. Moreover, by testing varying methods of summing cumulative disturbance, I found that past disturbances diminish over time in importance, yet still influence the current canopy structure and canopy N of a forest. Thus, my study suggests that Landsat time series data can be synthesized into cumulative metrics incorporating multiple disturbance types, which help explain important disturbance-mediated changes in ecosystem functions.

  12. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples.

    PubMed

    Wright, Andrew J; Kyhn, Line A

    2015-04-01

    Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts.

  13. Cumulative Impact Damage Evaluation of Automotive Aluminum Bumper Beam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Heon Young; Choi, Jong Gil; Kim, Min Gun; Lee, Kang Wook; Ha, Dae Yul; Yeo, Tae Jung

    We performed numerical analyses using an explicit code to evaluate the cumulative impact damage of an automotive aluminum front-end bumper back beam during low-speed crash events, as described by CMVSS215. we used a coupled numerical analysis scheme and considered the several fracture criterion such as EWK rupture model and plastic strain limit in the PAM-CRASH code to improve our damage and fracture estimates. Tensile test experiments for the notched and un-notched specimens were conducted to tune the performance of the EWK rupture model; The resulting material properties and fracture criterion were incorporated into the numerical analyses of the low-speed crash events. The simulation results were compared with the impact test.

  14. A mobile test facility based on a magnetic cumulative generator to study the stability of the power plants under impact of lightning currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shurupov, A. V.; Zavalova, V. E.; Kozlov, A. V.; Shurupov, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The report presents the results of the development and field testing of a mobile test facility based on a helical magnetic cumulative generator (MCGTF). The system is designed for full-scale modeling of lightning currents to study the safety of power plants of any type, including nuclear power plants. Advanced technologies of high-energy physics for solving both engineering and applied problems underlie this pilot project. The energy from the magnetic cumulative generator (MCG) is transferred to a high-impedance load with high efficiency of more than 50% using pulse transformer coupling. Modeling of the dynamics of the MEG that operates in a circuit with lumped parameters allows one to apply the law of inductance output during operation of the MCG, thus providing the required front of the current pulse in the load without using any switches. The results of field testing of the MCGTF are presented for both the ground loop and the model load. The ground loop generates a load resistance of 2-4 Ω. In the tests, the ohmic resistance of the model load is 10 Ω. It is shown that the current pulse parameters recorded in the resistive-inductive load are close to the calculated values.

  15. Cumulative biological impacts of The Geysers geothermal development

    SciTech Connect

    Brownell, J.A.

    1981-10-01

    The cumulative nature of current and potential future biological impacts from full geothermal development in the steam-dominated portion of The Geysers-Calistoga KGRA are identified by the California Energy Commission staff. Vegetation, wildlife, and aquatic resources information have been reviewed and evaluated. Impacts and their significance are discussed and staff recommendations presented. Development of 3000 MW of electrical energy will result in direct vegetation losses of 2790 acres, based on an estimate of 11.5% loss per lease-hold of 0.93 acres/MW. If unmitigated, losses will be greater. Indirect vegetation losses and damage occur from steam emissions which contain elements (particularly boron) toxic to vegetation. Other potential impacts include chronic low-level boron exposure, acid rain, local climate modification, and mechanical damage. A potential exists for significant reduction and changes in wildlife from direct habitat loss and development influences. Highly erosive soils create the potential for significant reduction of aquatic resources, particularly game fish. Toxic spills have caused some temporary losses of aquatic species. Staff recommends monitoring and implementation of mitigation measures at all geothermal development stages.

  16. The impact of cumulative family risks on various levels of food insecurity.

    PubMed

    Hernandez, Daphne C

    2015-03-01

    The study uses the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study (N=2025) to examine the relationship between four cumulative family risk indices and refined measures of food hardship: marginal food security, low food security, and very low food security. Regression analyses indicate that cumulative family risk indices are useful in differentiating various levels of food insecurity. Specifically, the maternal poor health and risky health behaviors index is pertinent for distinguishing (1) food insecure from marginal food secure households and (2) very low food secure from low food secure households. In addition, the financial strain index is pertinent for differentiating between marginal food secure families from food secure families among non-poor households. Connecting food assistance programs with established social services may decrease the negative impact that cumulative family-level risk factors have on families' varying levels of food insecurity.

  17. Assessing cumulative impacts within state environmental review frameworks in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Ma Zhao; Becker, Dennis R.; Kilgore, Michael A.

    2009-11-15

    Cumulative impact assessment (CIA) is the process of systematically assessing a proposed action's cumulative environmental effects in the context of past, present, and future actions, regardless of who undertakes such actions. Previous studies have examined CIA efforts at the federal level but little is known about how states assess the cumulative impacts of nonfederal projects. By examining state environmental review statutes, administrative rules, agency-prepared materials, and a national survey of the administrators of state environmental review programs, this study identifies the legal and administrative frameworks for CIA. It examines current CIA practice, discusses the relationship between CIA policy and its implementation, and explores the opportunities for improvement. The results of the study show that twenty-nine state environmental review programs across twenty-six states required the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. More than half of these programs have adopted specific procedures for implementing their policies. Some programs assessed cumulative impacts using a standard review document, and others have created their own documentations incorporated into applications for state permits or funding. The majority of programs have adopted various scales, baselines, significance criteria, and coordination practices in their CIA processes. Mixed methods were generally used for data collection and analysis; qualitative methods were more prevalent than quantitative methods. The results also suggest that a program with comprehensive and consistent environmental review policies and procedures does not always imply extensive CIA requirements and practices. Finally, this study discusses the potential for improving existing CIA processes and promoting CIA efforts in states without established environmental review programs.

  18. Double-Jeopardy: The Joint Impact of Neighborhood Disadvantage and Low Social Cohesion on Cumulative Risk of Disease Among African American Men and Women in the Jackson Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    Barber, Sharrelle; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S.V.; Earls, Felton

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Few studies have examined the joint impact of neighborhood disadvantage and low social cohesion on health. Moreover, no study has considered the joint impact of these factors on a cumulative disease risk profile among a large sample of African American adults. Using data from the Jackson Heart Study, we examined the extent to which social cohesion modifies the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and cumulative biological risk (CBR)—a measure of accumulated risk across multiple physiological systems. Methods Our analysis included 4,408 African American women and men ages 21–85 residing in the Jackson, MS Metropolitan Area. We measured neighborhood disadvantage using a composite score of socioeconomic indicators from the 2000 US Census and social cohesion was assessed using a 5-item validated scale. Standardized z-scores of biomarkers representing cardiovascular, metabolic, inflammatory, and neuroendocrine systems were combined to create a CBR score. We used two-level linear regression models with random intercepts adjusting for socio-demographic and behavioral covariates in the analysis. A three-way interaction term was included to examine whether the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and CBR differed by levels of social cohesion and gender. Results The interaction between neighborhood disadvantage, social cohesion and gender was statistically significant (p=0.05) such that the association between living in a disadvantaged neighborhood and CBR was strongest for men living in neighborhoods with low levels of social cohesion (B=0.63, SE: 0.32). In gender-specific models, we found a statistically significant interaction between neighborhood disadvantage and social cohesion for men (p=0.05) but not for women (p=0.50). Conclusion Neighborhoods characterized by high levels of economic disadvantage and low levels of social cohesion contribute to higher cumulative risk of disease among African American men. This suggests that they may

  19. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power... § 2.23 Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. The... opportunity for hearing by the licensee and all interested parties. Hydropower licenses also contain...

  20. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power... § 2.23 Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. The... opportunity for hearing by the licensee and all interested parties. Hydropower licenses also contain...

  1. Head impact exposure in youth football: high school ages 14 to 18 years and cumulative impact analysis.

    PubMed

    Urban, Jillian E; Davenport, Elizabeth M; Golman, Adam J; Maldjian, Joseph A; Whitlow, Christopher T; Powers, Alexander K; Stitzel, Joel D

    2013-12-01

    Sports-related concussion is the most common athletic head injury with football having the highest rate among high school athletes. Traditionally, research on the biomechanics of football-related head impact has been focused at the collegiate level. Less research has been performed at the high school level, despite the incidence of concussion among high school football players. The objective of this study is to twofold: to quantify the head impact exposure in high school football, and to develop a cumulative impact analysis method. Head impact exposure was measured by instrumenting the helmets of 40 high school football players with helmet mounted accelerometer arrays to measure linear and rotational acceleration. A total of 16,502 head impacts were collected over the course of the season. Biomechanical data were analyzed by team and by player. The median impact for each player ranged from 15.2 to 27.0 g with an average value of 21.7 (±2.4) g. The 95th percentile impact for each player ranged from 38.8 to 72.9 g with an average value of 56.4 (±10.5) g. Next, an impact exposure metric utilizing concussion injury risk curves was created to quantify cumulative exposure for each participating player over the course of the season. Impacts were weighted according to the associated risk due to linear acceleration and rotational acceleration alone, as well as the combined probability (CP) of injury associated with both. These risks were summed over the course of a season to generate risk weighted cumulative exposure. The impact frequency was found to be greater during games compared to practices with an average number of impacts per session of 15.5 and 9.4, respectively. However, the median cumulative risk weighted exposure based on combined probability was found to be greater for practices vs. games. These data will provide a metric that may be used to better understand the cumulative effects of repetitive head impacts, injury mechanisms, and head impact exposure of

  2. Assessing cumulative impacts to elk and mule deer in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neil, T.A.; Witmer, G.W.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, we illustrate the method, using the potential for cumulative impacts to elk and mule deer from multiple hydroelectric development in the Salmon River Basin of Idaho. We attempted to incorporate knowledge of elk and mule deer habitat needs into a paradigm to assess cumulative impacts and aid in the regulatory decision making process. Undoubtedly, other methods could be developed based on different needs or constraints, but we offer this technique as a means to further refine cumulative impact assessment. Our approach is divided into three phases: analysis, evaluation, and documentation. 36 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  3. Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

    PubMed

    Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions.

  4. Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

    2014-01-01

    Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations. PMID:25469162

  5. DESIGNING STUDIES AND COLLECTING DATA USEFUL FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    DESIGNING STUDIES AND COLLECTING DATA USEFUL FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT. J E Simmons1, C Gennings2, M Casey2, M J Plewa3, E D Wagner3, W H Carter, Jr.2, A McDonald1,Y M Sey1, L K Teuschler3 1NHEERL, ORD, U.S. EPA, RTP NC, USA; 2VCU, Richmond, VA, USA;3Univ. Illinois, Urba...

  6. Cumulative impact assessments and bird/wind farm interactions: Developing a conceptual framework

    SciTech Connect

    Masden, Elizabeth A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Bullman, Rhys; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-15

    The wind power industry has grown rapidly in the UK to meet EU targets of sourcing 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Although wind power is a renewable energy source, there are environmental concerns over increasing numbers of wind farm proposals and associated cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. EU and UK legislation requires a cumulative impact assessment (CIA) as part of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA). However, in the absence of detailed guidance and definitions, such assessments within EIA are rarely adequate, restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Here we propose a conceptual framework to promote transparency in CIA through the explicit definition of impacts, actions and scales within an assessment. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development EIAs. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating CIA to a strategic level, as a component of spatially explicit planning.

  7. Neighborhood green, social support, physical activity, and stress: assessing the cumulative impact.

    PubMed

    Fan, Yingling; Das, Kirti V; Chen, Qian

    2011-11-01

    We estimate the cumulative stress mitigating impact of neighborhood greenness by investigating whether neighborhood green mitigates stress directly, and indirectly by encouraging physical activity and/or fostering social support. Using data from a recent community health survey in Chicago and two-stage instrumental variables regression modeling, we find that different components of neighborhood green play distinct roles in influencing stress. Park spaces are found to indirectly mitigate stress by fostering social support. Overall neighborhood vegetation is found to have direct stress mitigation impact, yet the impact is counteracted by its negative effect on social support. When comparing the effect size, park spaces show a more positive impact on health and well-being than the overall neighborhood vegetation level. Policy makers are recommended to focus on creating structured green spaces with public recreation and socialization opportunities rather than simply conserving green spaces in the neighborhood. Previous studies, as they often investigate the direct impact only and rarely use multiple measures of greenness, may have mis-estimated health benefits of neighborhood green.

  8. Cumulative and career-stage citation impact of social-personality psychology programs and their members.

    PubMed

    Nosek, Brian A; Graham, Jesse; Lindner, Nicole M; Kesebir, Selin; Hawkins, Carlee Beth; Hahn, Cheryl; Schmidt, Kathleen; Motyl, Matt; Joy-Gaba, Jennifer; Frazier, Rebecca; Tenney, Elizabeth R

    2010-10-01

    Number of citations and the h-index are popular metrics for indexing scientific impact. These, and other existing metrics, are strongly related to scientists' seniority. This article introduces complementary indicators that are unrelated to the number of years since PhD. To illustrate cumulative and career-stage approaches for assessing the scientific impact across a discipline, citations for 611 scientists from 97 U.S. and Canadian social psychology programs are amassed and analyzed. Results provide benchmarks for evaluating impact across the career span in psychology and other disciplines with similar citation patterns. Career-stage indicators provide a very different perspective on individual and program impact than cumulative impact, and may predict emerging scientists and programs. Comparing social groups, Whites and men had higher impact than non-Whites and women, respectively. However, average differences in career stage accounted for most of the difference for both groups.

  9. Cumulative impacts of human activities on urban garden soils: origin and accumulation of metals.

    PubMed

    Szolnoki, Zs; Farsang, A; Puskás, I

    2013-06-01

    The concentration of heavy metals and soil properties in fifty urban garden soils of Szeged (SE Hungary) were determined to evaluate the cumulative impacts of urbanization and cultivation on these soils. Using two enrichment factors (EFs) (based on reference horizon; Ti as reference element) and multivariate statistical analysis (PCA), the origin of the studied elements was defined. According to statistical coincidence of EFs confirmed by t-test, anthropogenic enrichment of Cu (EF = 4), Zn (EF = 2.7) and Pb (EF = 2.5) was significant in topsoils. Moreover, PCA also revealed the geogenic origin of Ni, Co, Cr and As and differentiated two groups of the anthropogenic metals [Pb, Zn] [Cu]. Spatial distribution of the metals visualized by GIS reflected the traffic origin of Pb; while based on ANOVA, the anthropogenic source of Cu is relevant (mainly pesticides) and there is a statistically significant difference in its concentration depending on land use.

  10. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL RULES...

  11. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL RULES...

  12. 18 CFR 2.23 - Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Use of reserved authority in hydropower licenses to ameliorate cumulative impacts. 2.23 Section 2.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL RULES...

  13. 75 FR 38540 - Notice of Availability of Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement Updating Cumulative...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-02

    ... Analysis for the Newmont Mining Corporation South Operations Area Project Amendment, Nevada AGENCY: Bureau... Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to update the cumulative effects analysis for Newmont Mining Corporation's... Decision (ROD) for Newmont Mining Corporation's South Operations Area Project Amendment (SOAPA), an...

  14. Cumulative Human Impacts on Mediterranean and Black Sea Marine Ecosystems: Assessing Current Pressures and Opportunities

    PubMed Central

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Walbridge, Shaun; Ciriaco, Saul; Ferretti, Francesco; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Lewison, Rebecca; Nykjaer, Leo; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

    2013-01-01

    Management of marine ecosystems requires spatial information on current impacts. In several marine regions, including the Mediterranean and Black Sea, legal mandates and agreements to implement ecosystem-based management and spatial plans provide new opportunities to balance uses and protection of marine ecosystems. Analyses of the intensity and distribution of cumulative impacts of human activities directly connected to the ecological goals of these policy efforts are critically needed. Quantification and mapping of the cumulative impact of 22 drivers to 17 marine ecosystems reveals that 20% of the entire basin and 60–99% of the territorial waters of EU member states are heavily impacted, with high human impact occurring in all ecoregions and territorial waters. Less than 1% of these regions are relatively unaffected. This high impact results from multiple drivers, rather than one individual use or stressor, with climatic drivers (increasing temperature and UV, and acidification), demersal fishing, ship traffic, and, in coastal areas, pollution from land accounting for a majority of cumulative impacts. These results show that coordinated management of key areas and activities could significantly improve the condition of these marine ecosystems. PMID:24324585

  15. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean.

    PubMed

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Walbridge, Shaun

    2015-07-14

    Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems.

  16. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

    PubMed Central

    Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S.; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R. Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Walbridge, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems. PMID:26172980

  17. Strategic environmental assessment of mining activities: A methodology for quantification of cumulative impacts on the air quality.

    PubMed

    Cavalcanti, Paulina Maria Porto Silva; La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre

    2011-04-01

    Environmental impact assessments in Brazil have usually focused solely on project-related issues without considering the regional context. Although required by current environmental legislation, cumulative impact assessments have not been included in the overall environmental assessment of projects. However, in recent Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) studies of policies, plans, and programs undertaken on a voluntary basis in support of the decision-making process, this kind of assessment has been performed especially with respect to air quality. This paper presents the application of a methodology for the quantification of cumulative impacts on air quality under high uncertainty caused by various mining activities in a single region that is recommended for SEA studies. In this way, the methodology presented here is suitable for areas lacking detailed modeling information. The developed approach uses a relatively simplified mathematical model, lowering information gathering costs and requiring little processing time. The application of the methodology is illustrated in the case of a SEA of the Corumbá Mining and Industrial Complex Development Program. Despite the lack of data needed for a minimum characterization of conditions of the area surrounding the region modeled, the quantification of impact cumulativeness on air quality has played an important role in the context of the SEA.

  18. Assessing cumulative impacts to wintering Bald Eagles and their habitats in western Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Witmer, G.W.; O'Neil, T.A.

    1988-01-01

    Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) of Washington, the largest wintering population in the lower 48 states, are subject to numerous pressures and impacts from human activites. An evaluative method potential cumulative impacts of multiple hydroelectric development and logging activities on known and potential eagle use areas. Four resource components include food supply, roost sites, mature riparian forest, and disturbance. In addition to actual estimates of losses in food supply (fish biomass in kg) and habitat (km/sup 2/) in one river basin, impact levels from 0 (none) to 4 (high) were assigned for each development and for each component based on the impacts anticipated and the estimated value of the site to eagles. Midwinter eagle surveys, aerial photography, topographic and forest stand maps, and site visits were used in the analysis. Impacts were considered additive for all but the disturbance component, which was adjusted for potential synergism between developments. Adjustments were made for mitigation before the impacts were aggregated into a single, dimensionless cumulative impact score. 50 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  19. Role of slope stability in cumulative impact assessment of hydropower development: North Cascades, Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, R.R.; Staub, W.P.

    1993-08-01

    Two environmental assessments considered the potential cumulative environmental impacts resulting from the development of eight proposed hydropower projects in the Nooksack River Basin and 11 proposed projects in the Skagit River Basin, North Cascades, Washington, respectively. While not identified as a target resource, slope stability and the alteration of sediment supply to creeks and river mainstems significantly affect other resources. The slope stability assessment emphasized the potential for cumulative impacts under disturbed conditions (e.g., road construction and timber harvesting) and a landslide-induced pipeline rupture scenario. In the case of small-scale slides, the sluicing action of ruptured pipeline water on the fresh landslide scarp was found to be capable of eroding significantly more material than the original landslide. For large-scale landslides, sluiced material was found to be a small increment of the original landslide. These results predicted that hypothetical accidental pipeline rupture by small-scale landslides may result in potential cumulative impacts for 12 of the 19 projects with pending license applications in both river basins. 5 refs., 2 tabs.

  20. Benchmark Study of Density Cumulant Functional Theory: Thermochemistry and Kinetics.

    PubMed

    Copan, Andreas V; Sokolov, Alexander Yu; Schaefer, Henry F

    2014-06-10

    We present an extensive benchmark study of density cumulant functional theory (DCFT) for thermochemistry and kinetics of closed- and open-shell molecules. The performance of DCFT methods (DC-06, DC-12, ODC-06, and ODC-12) is compared to that of coupled-electron pair methods (CEPA0 and OCEPA0) and coupled-cluster theory (CCSD and CCSD(T)) for the description of noncovalent interactions (A24 database), barrier heights of hydrogen-transfer reactions (HTBH38), radical stabilization energies (RSE30), adiabatic ionization energies (AIE), and covalent bond stretching in diatomic molecules. Our results indicate that out of four DCFT methods the ODC-12 method is the most reliable and accurate DCFT formulation to date. Compared to CCSD, ODC-12 shows superior results for all benchmark tests employed in our study. With respect to coupled-pair theories, ODC-12 outperforms CEPA0 and shows similar accuracy to the orbital-optimized CEPA0 variant (OCEPA0) for systems at equilibrium geometries. For covalent bond stretching, ODC-12 is found to be more reliable than OCEPA0. For the RSE30 and AIE data sets, ODC-12 shows competitive performance with CCSD(T). In addition to benchmark results, we report new reference values for the RSE30 data set computed using coupled cluster theory with up to perturbative quadruple excitations.

  1. The Cumulative Impact of Nonsevere Life Events Predicts Depression Recurrence during Maintenance Treatment with Interpersonal Psychotherapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenze, Shannon N.; Cyranowski, Jill M.; Thompson, Wesley K.; Anderson, Barbara; Frank, Ellen

    2008-01-01

    Although much research has focused on the role of severe life events as risk factors for depression onset, less is known about the relationship between nonsevere life events and depression recurrence. The current study examined the cumulative effects of nonsevere and positive life events on depression recurrence in an outpatient sample of…

  2. Evaluating Cumulative OP Pesticide Body Burden of Children: A National Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Payne-Sturges, Devon; Cohen, Jonathan; Castorina, Rosemary; Axelrad, Daniel A.; Woodruff, Tracey J.

    2009-01-01

    Biomonitoring is a valuable tool for identifying exposures to chemicals that pose potential harm to human health. However, to date there has been little published on ways to evaluate the relative public health significance of biomonitoring data for different chemicals, and even less on cumulative assessment of multiple chemicals. The objectives of our study are to develop a methodology for a health risk interpretation of biomonitoring data, and to apply it using NHANES 1999–2002 body burden data for organophosphorus (OP) pesticides. OP pesticides present a particularly challenging case given the non-specificity of many metabolites monitored through NHANES. We back-calculate OP pesticide exposures from urinary metabolite data, and compare cumulative dose estimates with available toxicity information for a common mechanism of action (brain cholinesterase inhibition) using data from U.S. EPA. Our results suggest that approximately 40% of children in the United States may have had insufficient margins of exposure (MOEs) for neurological impacts from cumulative exposures to OP pesticides (MOE less than 1,000). Limitations include uncertainty related to assumptions about likely precursor pesticide compounds of the urinary metabolites, sources of exposure, and intra-individual and temporal variability. PMID:19921915

  3. Multiscale impacts of armoring on Salish Sea shorelines: Evidence for cumulative and threshold effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dethier, Megan N.; Raymond, Wendel W.; McBride, Aundrea N.; Toft, Jason D.; Cordell, Jeffery R.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Heerhartz, Sarah M.; Berry, Helen D.

    2016-06-01

    Shoreline armoring is widespread in many parts of the protected inland waters of the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A, but impacts on physical and biological features of local nearshore ecosystems have only recently begun to be documented. Armoring marine shorelines can alter natural processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales; some, such as starving the beach of sediments by blocking input from upland bluffs may take decades to become visible, while others such as placement loss of armoring construction are immediate. We quantified a range of geomorphic and biological parameters at paired, nearby armored and unarmored beaches throughout the inland waters of Washington State to test what conditions and parameters are associated with armoring. We gathered identical datasets at a total of 65 pairs of beaches: 6 in South Puget Sound, 23 in Central Puget Sound, and 36 pairs North of Puget Sound proper. At this broad scale, demonstrating differences attributable to armoring is challenging given the high natural variability in measured parameters among beaches and regions. However, we found that armoring was consistently associated with reductions in beach width, riparian vegetation, numbers of accumulated logs, and amounts and types of beach wrack and associated invertebrates. Armoring-related patterns at lower beach elevations (further vertically from armoring) were progressively harder to detect. For some parameters, such as accumulated logs, there was a distinct threshold in armoring elevation that was associated with increased impacts. This large dataset for the first time allowed us to identify cumulative impacts that appear when increasing proportions of shorelines are armored. At large spatial and temporal scales, armoring much of a sediment drift cell may result in reduction of the finer grain-size fractions on beaches, including those used by spawning forage fish. Overall we have shown that local impacts of shoreline armoring can scale-up to have cumulative and

  4. The cumulative impact of annual coral bleaching can turn some coral species winners into losers.

    PubMed

    Grottoli, Andréa G; Warner, Mark E; Levas, Stephen J; Aschaffenburg, Matthew D; Schoepf, Verena; McGinley, Michael; Baumann, Justin; Matsui, Yohei

    2014-12-01

    Mass coral bleaching events caused by elevated seawater temperatures result in extensive coral loss throughout the tropics, and are projected to increase in frequency and severity. If bleaching becomes an annual event later in this century, more than 90% of coral reefs worldwide may be at risk of long-term degradation. While corals can recover from single isolated bleaching and can acclimate to recurring bleaching events that are separated by multiple years, it is currently unknown if and how they will survive and possibly acclimatize to annual coral bleaching. Here, we demonstrate for the first time that annual coral bleaching can dramatically alter thermal tolerance in Caribbean corals. We found that high coral energy reserves and changes in the dominant algal endosymbiont type (Symbiodinium spp.) facilitated rapid acclimation in Porites divaricata, whereas low energy reserves and a lack of algal phenotypic plasticity significantly increased susceptibility in Porites astreoides to bleaching the following year. Phenotypic plasticity in the dominant endosymbiont type of Orbicella faveolata did not prevent repeat bleaching, but may have facilitated rapid recovery. Thus, coral holobiont response to an isolated single bleaching event is not an accurate predictor of its response to bleaching the following year. Rather, the cumulative impact of annual coral bleaching can turn some coral species 'winners' into 'losers', and can also facilitate acclimation and turn some coral species 'losers' into 'winners'. Overall, these findings indicate that cumulative impact of annual coral bleaching could result in some species becoming increasingly susceptible to bleaching and face a long-term decline, while phenotypically plastic coral species will acclimatize and persist. Thus, annual coral bleaching and recovery could contribute to the selective loss of coral diversity as well as the overall decline of coral reefs in the Caribbean.

  5. Valued ecosystem components for watershed cumulative effects: an analysis of environmental impact assessments in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ball, Murray A; Noble, Bram F; Dubé, Monique G

    2013-07-01

    The accumulating effects of human development are threatening water quality and availability. In recognition of the constraints to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) under traditional environmental impact assessment (EIA), there is an emerging body of research dedicated to watershed-based cumulative effects assessment (WCEA). To advance the science of WCEA, however, a standard set of ecosystem components and indicators is required that can be used at the watershed scale, to inform effects-based understanding of cumulative change, and at the project scale, to inform regulatory-based project based impact assessment and mitigation. A major challenge, however, is that it is not clear how such ecosystem components and indicators for WCEA can or should be developed. This study examined the use of aquatic ecosystem components and indicators in EIA practice in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada, to determine whether current practice at the project scale could be "scaled up" to support ecosystem component and indicator development for WCEA. The hierarchy of assessment components and indicators used in a sample of 35 environmental impact assessments was examined and the factors affecting aquatic ecosystem component selection and indicator use were identified. Results showed that public environmental impact statements are not necessarily publically accessible, thus limiting opportunities for data and information sharing from the project to the watershed scale. We also found no consistent terminology across the sample of impact statements, thus making comparison of assessment processes and results difficult. Regulatory compliance was found to be the dominant factor influencing the selection of ecosystem components and indicators for use in project assessment, rather than scientific reasoning, followed by the mandate of the responsible government agency for the assessment, public input to the assessment process, and preexisting water licensing arrangements external

  6. Cumulative Lead Exposure and Age-related Hearing Loss: The VA Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Park, Sung Kyun; Elmarsafawy, Sahar; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Spiro, Avron; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Nie, Huiling; Weisskopf, Marc G.; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard

    2010-01-01

    Although lead has been associated with hearing loss in occupational settings and in children, little epidemiologic research has been conducted on the impact of cumulative lead exposure on age-related hearing loss in the general population. We determined whether bone lead levels, a marker of cumulative lead exposure, are associated with decreased hearing ability in 448 men from the Normative Aging Study, seen between 1962 and 1996 (2,264 total observations). Air conduction hearing thresholds were measured at 0.25 to 8 kHz and pure tone averages (PTA) (mean of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz) were computed. Tibia and patella lead levels were measured using K x-ray fluorescence between 1991 and 1996. In cross-sectional analyses, after adjusting for potential confounders including occupational noise, patella lead levels were significantly associated with poorer hearing thresholds at 2, 3, 4, 6 and 8 kHz and PTA. The odds of hearing loss significantly increased with patella lead levels. We also found significant positive associations between tibia lead and the rate change in hearing thresholds at 1, 2, and 8 kHz and PTA in longitudinal analyses. Our results suggest that chronic low-level lead exposure may be an important risk factor for age-related hearing loss and reduction of lead exposure could help prevent or delay development of age-related hearing loss. PMID:20638461

  7. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods.

  8. The nature of cumulative impacts on biotic diversity of wetland vertebrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Larry D.

    1988-09-01

    There is no longer any doubt that cumulative impacts have important effects on wetland vertebrates. Interactions of species diversity and community structure produce a complex pattern in which environmental impacts can play a highly significant role. Various examples show how wetlands maintain the biotic diversity within and among vertebrate populations, and some of the ways that environmental perturbations can interact to reduce this diversity. The trophic and habitat pyramids are useful organizing concepts. Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects at all levels, reducing the usable range of the larger habitat generalists while threatening the genetic integrity of small, isolated populations. The complexity of trophic interactions, and the propensity, or necessity, of vertebrates to switch from one food source to another—something we know little about—makes using food chain support as a variable for predicting environmental impacts very questionable. Historical instances illustrate the effects of the accumulation of impacts on vertebrates. At present it is nearly impossible to predict the result of three or more different kinds of perturbations, although long-range effects can be observed. One case in point is waterfowl; while their ingestion of lead shot, harvesting by hunters during migration, and loss of habitat have caused waterfowl populations to decline, the proportional responsibility of these factors has not been determined. Further examples show multiplicative effects of similar actions, effects with long time lags, diffuse processes in the landscape that may have concentrated effects on a component subsystem, and a variety of other interactions of increasing complexity. Not only is more information needed at all levels; impacts must be assessed on a landscape or regional scale to produce informed management decisions. I conclude that a system of replicate wetland reserves that are allowed to interact naturally with the surrounding landscape will

  9. THEORETICAL TECHNIQUE FOR DETERMINING THE CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF IRON AND MANGANESE OXIDATION IN STREAMS RECEIVING COAL-MINE DISCHARGE.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bobay, Keith E.; Banaszak, Konrad J.; ,

    1985-01-01

    Two U. S. Geological Survey computer programs are modified and linked to predict the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in coal-mine discharge on the dissolved-chemical quality of a receiving stream. The coupled programs calculate the changes in dissolved-iron, dissolved-manganese, and dissolved-oxygen concentrations, and the pH of surface water downstream from the discharge. The cumulative impact of representative discharges from several coal mines on stream quality in a small watershed in southwestern Indiana was simulated to determine the effectiveness and sensitivity of the coupled programs.

  10. Novel Method of Weighting Cumulative Helmet Impacts Improves Correlation with Brain White Matter Changes After One Football Season of Sub-concussive Head Blows.

    PubMed

    Merchant-Borna, Kian; Asselin, Patrick; Narayan, Darren; Abar, Beau; Jones, Courtney M C; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

    2016-12-01

    fractional anisotropy (FA) using bivariate and multivariable correlation analyses. The resulting R (2) values were averaged in each of the five summary method groups and compared using one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey post hoc tests for multiple comparisons. Total head hits for the season ranged from 431 to 1850. None of the athletes suffered a clinically evident concussion during the study period. The mean R (2) value for the correlations using cumulative helmet-based impact measures weighted for both TUA and TBH combined (0.51 ± 0.03) was significantly greater than the mean R (2) value for correlations using non-cumulative HIMs (vs. 0.19 ± 0.04, p < 0.0001), unweighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures (vs. 0.27 + 0.03, p < 0.0001), and cumulative helmet-based impact measures weighted for TBH alone (vs. 0.34 ± 0.02, p < 0.001). R (2) values for weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures ranged from 0.32 to 0.77, with 60% of correlations being statistically significant. Cumulative GSI weighted for TBH and TUA explained 77% of the variance in the percent of white matter voxels with statistically significant (PWMVSS) increase in FA from pre-season to post-season, while both cumulative GSI and cumulative HIC15 weighted for TUA accounted for 75% of the variance in PWMVSS decrease in FA. A novel method for weighting cumulative helmet-based impact measures summed over the course of a football season resulted in a marked improvement in the correlation to brain WM changes observed after a single football season of sub-concussive head blows. Our results lend support to the emerging concept that sub-concussive head blows can result in sub-clinical brain injury, and this may be influenced by the time between hits. If confirmed in an independent data set, our novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows could be used to develop threshold-based countermeasures to prevent the accumulation of WM changes with multiple seasons

  11. Assessment and Quantification of Cumulative Impacts of Training and Land Management Practices on Military Installations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-19

    environmental integrity of the training area. A terrain-vehicle impact model was used to predict terrain impacts (disturbed width and impact...impacts severity were determined using theoretical models generated by Li et al. (2007). Soil cohesion and friction angle were measured on-site with...providing support for this study. References 1. Ayers, P. M. Rice, Q. Li, H. Howard, and A. Anderson. 2007. Modeling military vehicle terrain

  12. Increased Cumulative Incidence of Dermatomyositis in Ulcerative Colitis: a Nationwide Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Tseng, Chia-Chun; Chang, Shun-Jen; Liao, Wei-Ting; Chan, Ya-Ting; Tsai, Wen-Chan; Ou, Tsan-Teng; Wu, Cheng-Chin; Sung, Wan-Yu; Hsieh, Ming-Chia; Yen, Jeng-Hsien

    2016-01-01

    On a molecular level, two autoimmune diseases: ulcerative colitis (UC) and dermatomyositis share common genetic determinants. On a clinical level, case reports evidenced the co-occurrence of these two diseases. We therefore hypothesize that UC is potentially associated with increased cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis. The goals of this retrospective cohort study were to evaluate whether UC is associated with increased cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis independent of sex and age. For comparison, we also assessed the cumulative incidence of polymyositis in UC and control subjects. The study enrolled 3,133 UC subjects and 14,726 control subjects. The cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis was significantly higher in UC than that of control subjects (p = 0.026), but the cumulative incidence of polymyositis was comparable between UC and control subjects (p = 0.596). UC was independently associated with the increased incident dermatomyositis (hazard ratio: 6.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.77–21.59, p = 0.004) after adjusting for sex, age, and concomitant rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and systemic sclerosis. Similar trends of increased dermatomyositis in UC were observed when patients were stratified based on sex and age. In conclusion, our findings suggest that UC is probably associated with increased cumulative incidence of dermatomyositis, independent of sex, age, and concomitant autoimmune diseases. PMID:27325143

  13. Utilizing geographic information systems technology in the Wyoming cumulative hydrologic impact assessment modeling process

    SciTech Connect

    Hamerlinck, J.D.; Oakleaf, J.R.

    1997-12-31

    The coal-permitting process places heavy demands on both permit applicants and regulatory authorities with respect to the management and analysis of hydrologic data. Currently, this correlation is being addressed for the Powder River Basin, Wyoming by the ongoing Cumulative Hydrologic Impact Assessment (CHIA) efforts at the University of Wyoming. One critical component of the CHIA is the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) for support, management, manipulation, pre-analysis, and display of data associated with the chosen groundwater and surface water models. This paper will discuss the methodology in using of GIS technology as an integrated tool with the MODFLOW and HEC-1 hydrologic models. Pre-existing GIS links associated with these two models served as a foundation for this effort. However, due to established standards and site specific factors, substantial modifications were performed on existing tools to obtain adequate results. The groundwater-modeling effort required the use of a refined grid in which cell sizes varied based on the relative locations of ongoing mining activities. Surface water modeling was performed in a semi-arid region with very limited topographic relief and predominantly ephemeral stream channels. These were substantial issues that presented challenges for effective GIS/model integration.

  14. Cumulative ecological impacts of two successive annual treatments of imidacloprid and fipronil on aquatic communities of paddy mesocosms.

    PubMed

    Hayasaka, D; Korenaga, T; Suzuki, K; Saito, F; Sánchez-Bayo, F; Goka, K

    2012-06-01

    Agricultural landscapes, including paddies, play an important role in maintaining biodiversity, but this biodiversity has been under the threat of toxic agro-chemicals. Our knowledge about how aquatic communities react to, and recover from, pesticides, particularly in relation to their residues, is deficient, despite the importance of such information for realistic environmental impact assessment of pesticides. The cumulative ecological impacts on aquatic paddy communities and their recovery processes after two successive annual applications of two systemic insecticides, imidacloprid and fipronil, were monitored between mid-May and mid-September each year. The abundance of benthic organisms during both years was significantly lower in both insecticide-treated fields than in the controls. Large-impacts of fipronil on aquatic arthropods were found after the two years. Growth of medaka fish, both adults and their juveniles, was affected by the application of the two insecticides. A Principal Response Curve analysis (PRC) showed the escalation and prolongation of changes in aquatic community composition by the successive annual treatments of each insecticide over two years. Residues of fipronil in soil, which are more persistent than those of imidacloprid, had a high level of impact on aquatic communities over time. For some taxonomic groups, particularly for water surface-dwelling and water-borne arthropods, the second annual treatment had far greater impacts than the initial treatment, indicating that impacts of these insecticides under normal use patterns cannot be accurately assessed during short-term monitoring studies, i.e., lasting less than one year. It is concluded that realistic prediction and assessment of pesticide effects at the community level should also include the long-term ecological risks of their residues whenever these persist in paddies over a year.

  15. Epigenome: A Biomarker or Screening Tool to Evaluate Health Impact of Cumulative Exposure to Chemical and Non-Chemical Stressors

    PubMed Central

    Olden, Kenneth; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Bussard, David

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment practices and toxicity information are hard to utilize for assessing the health impact of combined or cumulative exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors encountered in the “real world” environment. Non-chemical stressors such as heat, radiation, noise, humidity, bacterial and viral agents, and social factors, like stress related to violence and socioeconomic position generally cannot be currently incorporated into the risk assessment paradigm. The Science and Decisions report released by the National Research Council (NRC) in 2009 emphasized the need to characterize the effects of multiple stressors, both chemical and non-chemical exposures. One impediment to developing information relating such non-chemical stressors to health effects and incorporating them into cumulative assessment has been the lack of analytical tools to easily and quantitatively monitor the cumulative exposure to combined effects of stressors over the life course.

  16. Cumulative risk assessment lessons learned: a review of case studies and issue papers.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Sarah S; Rice, Glenn E; Scarano, Louis J; Teuschler, Linda K; Bollweg, George; Martin, Lawrence

    2015-02-01

    Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) examine potential risks posed by exposure to multiple and sometimes disparate environmental stressors. CRAs are more resource intensive than single chemical assessments, and pose additional challenges and sources of uncertainty. CRAs may examine the impact of several factors on risk, including exposure magnitude and timing, chemical mixture composition, as well as physical, biological, or psychosocial stressors. CRAs are meant to increase the relevance of risk assessments, providing decision makers with information based on real world exposure scenarios that improve the characterization of actual risks and hazards. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has evaluated a number of CRAs, performed by or commissioned for the Agency, to seek insight into CRA concepts, methods, and lessons learned. In this article, ten case studies and five issue papers on key CRA topics are examined and a set of lessons learned are identified for CRA implementation. The lessons address the iterative nature of CRAs, importance of considering vulnerability, need for stakeholder engagement, value of a tiered approach, new methods to assess multiroute exposures to chemical mixtures, and the impact of geographical scale on approach and purpose.

  17. Cumulants, free cumulants and half-shuffles.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi-Fard, Kurusch; Patras, Frédéric

    2015-04-08

    Free cumulants were introduced as the proper analogue of classical cumulants in the theory of free probability. There is a mix of similarities and differences, when one considers the two families of cumulants. Whereas the combinatorics of classical cumulants is well expressed in terms of set partitions, that of free cumulants is described and often introduced in terms of non-crossing set partitions. The formal series approach to classical and free cumulants also largely differs. The purpose of this study is to put forward a different approach to these phenomena. Namely, we show that cumulants, whether classical or free, can be understood in terms of the algebra and combinatorics underlying commutative as well as non-commutative (half-)shuffles and (half-) unshuffles. As a corollary, cumulants and free cumulants can be characterized through linear fixed point equations. We study the exponential solutions of these linear fixed point equations, which display well the commutative, respectively non-commutative, character of classical and free cumulants.

  18. A conceptual framework for assessing cumulative impacts on the hydrology of nontidal wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winter, T.C.

    1988-01-01

    Wetlands occur in geologic and hydrologic settings that enhance the accumulation or retention of water. Regional slope, local relief, and permeability of the land surface are major controls on the formation of wetlands by surface-water sources. However, these landscape features also have significant control over groundwater flow systems, which commonly play a role in the formation of wetlands. Because the hydrologic system is a continuum, any modification of one component will have an effect on contiguous components. Disturbances commonly affecting the hydrologic system as it relates to wetlands include weather modification, alteration of plant communities, storage of surface water, road construction, drainage of surface water and soil water, alteration of groundwater recharge and discharge areas, and pumping of groundwater. Assessments of the cumulative effects of one or more of these disturbances on the hydrologic system as related to wetlands must take into account uncertainty in the measurements and in the assumptions that are made in hydrologic studies. For example, it may be appropriate to assume that regional groundwater flow systems are recharged in uplands and discharged in lowlands. However, a similar assumption commonly does not apply on a local scale, because of the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. Lack of appreciation of such hydrologic factors can lead to misunderstanding of the hydrologic function of wetlands within various parts of the landscape and mismanagement of wetland ecosystems. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  19. Cumulative effect in information diffusion: empirical study on a microblogging network.

    PubMed

    Bao, Peng; Shen, Hua-Wei; Chen, Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2013-01-01

    Cumulative effect in social contagion underlies many studies on the spread of innovation, behavior, and influence. However, few large-scale empirical studies are conducted to validate the existence of cumulative effect in information diffusion on social networks. In this paper, using the population-scale dataset from the largest Chinese microblogging website, we conduct a comprehensive study on the cumulative effect in information diffusion. We base our study on the diffusion network of message, where nodes are the involved users and links characterize forwarding relationship among them. We find that multiple exposures to the same message indeed increase the possibility of forwarding it. However, additional exposures cannot further improve the chance of forwarding when the number of exposures crosses its peak at two. This finding questions the cumulative effect hypothesis in information diffusion. Furthermore, to clarify the forwarding preference among users, we investigate both structural motif in the diffusion network and temporal pattern in information diffusion process. Findings provide some insights for understanding the variation of message popularity and explain the characteristics of diffusion network.

  20. Cumulative Advantage in the Skill Development of STEM Graduate Students: A Mixed-Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feldon, David F.; Maher, Michelle A.; Roksa, Josipa; Peugh, James

    2016-01-01

    Studies of skill development often describe a process of cumulative advantage, in which small differences in initial skill compound over time, leading to increasing skill gaps between those with an initial advantage and those without. We offer evidence of a similar phenomenon accounting for differential patterns of research skill development in…

  1. Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

  2. 75 FR 38539 - Notice of Availability of Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement Updating Cumulative...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-02

    ... Analysis for the Newmont Mining Corporation Leeville Project, Nevada AGENCY: Bureau of Land Management... Statement (EIS) to update the cumulative effects analysis for Newmont Mining Corporation's Leeville Project... of Decision (ROD) for Newmont Mining Corporation's Leeville Project, an underground gold mine...

  3. Identification and Quantification of Cumulative Factors that Increase Environmental Exposures and Impacts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluating the combined adverse effects of multiple stressors upon human health is an imperative component of cumulative risk assessment (CRA)1. In addition to chemical stressors, other non-chemical factors are also considered. For examples, smoking will elevate the risks of havi...

  4. Cumulative incidence of childhood autism: a total population study of better accuracy and precision.

    PubMed

    Honda, Hideo; Shimizu, Yasuo; Imai, Miho; Nitto, Yukari

    2005-01-01

    Most studies on the frequency of autism have had methodological problems. Most notable of these have been differences in diagnostic criteria between studies, degree of cases overlooked by the initial screening, and type of measurement. This study aimed to replicate the first report on childhood autism to address cumulative incidence as well as prevalence, as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision (ICD-10) Diagnostic Criteria for Research. Here, the same methodological accuracy (exactness of a measurement to the true value) as the first study was used, but population size was four times larger to achieve greater precision (reduction of random error). A community-oriented system of early detection and early intervention for developmental disorders was established in the northern part of Yokohama, Japan. The city's routine health checkup for 18-month-old children served as the initial mass screening, and all facilities that provided child care services aimed to detect all cases of childhood autism and refer them to the Yokohama Rehabilitation Center. Cumulative incidence up to age 5 years was calculated for childhood autism among a birth cohort from four successive years (1988 to 1991). Cumulative incidence of childhood autism was 27.2 per 10000. Cumulative incidences by sex were 38.4 per 10000 in males, and 15.5 per 10000 in females. The male:female ratio was 2.5:1. The proportions of children with high-functioning autism who had Binet IQs of 70 and over and those with Binet IQs of 85 and over were 25.3% and 13.7% respectively. Data on cumulative incidence of childhood autism derived from this study are the first to be drawn from an accurate, as well as precise, screening methodology.

  5. Evaluating cumulative risk assessment for environmental justice: a community case study.

    PubMed Central

    Fox, Mary A

    2002-01-01

    A key feature of cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is the ability to estimate differential health risks from environmental exposures within populations. Identifying populations at increased risk from environmental exposures is the first step toward mitigating such risks as required by the fair treatment mandate of environmental justice. CRA methods remain under development except for a limited application in pesticide regulations. The goals of this research were to advance CRA methods and to test their application in a community case study. We compared cumulative risk and health assessments for South and Southwest Philadelphia communities. The analysis found positive correlations between cumulative risk and mortality measurements for total mortality in Whites and non-Whites when we conducted the risk assessment using a multi-end point toxicological database developed for this project. Cumulative risk scores correlated positively with cause-specific mortality in non-Whites. Statistically significant increases in total and respiratory mortality rates were associated with incremental increases in the hazard ratio cumulative risk scores, with ranges of 2-6% for total and 8-23% for respiratory. Regression analyses controlled for percent non-White population and per capita income, indicating that risk scores represent an environmental effect on health independent of race and income. This case study demonstrated the successful application of CRA at the community level. CRA adds a health dimension to pollutant concentrations to produce a more comprehensive understanding of environmental inequities that can inform decision making. CRA is a viable tool to identify high-risk areas and to guide surveillance, research, or interventions. PMID:11929729

  6. Modeling community asbestos exposure near a vermiculite processing facility: Impact of human activities on cumulative exposure.

    PubMed

    Adgate, John L; Cho, Sook Ja; Alexander, Bruce H; Ramachandran, Gurmurthy; Raleigh, Katherine K; Johnson, Jean; Messing, Rita B; Williams, A L; Kelly, James; Pratt, Gregory C

    2011-01-01

    Contaminated vermiculite ore from Libby, Montana was processed in northeast Minneapolis from 1936 to 1989 in a densely populated urban residential neighborhood, resulting in non-occupational exposure scenarios from plant stack and fugitive emissions as well as from activity-based scenarios associated with use of the waste rock in the surrounding community. The objective of this analysis was to estimate potential cumulative asbestos exposure for all non-occupationally exposed members of this community. Questionnaire data from a neighborhood-exposure assessment ascertained frequency of potential contact with vermiculite processing waste. Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop exposure estimates based on activity-based concentration estimates and contact durations for four scenarios: S1, moved asbestos-contaminated waste; S2, used waste at home, on lawn or garden; S3, installed/removed vermiculite insulation; S4, played in or around waste piles at the plant. The simulation outputs were combined with air-dispersion model results to provide total cumulative asbestos exposure estimates for the cohort. Fiber emissions from the plant were the largest source of exposure for the majority of the cohort, with geometric mean cumulative exposures of 0.02 fibers/cc × month. The addition of S1, S2 and S3 did not significantly increase total cumulative exposure above background exposure estimates obtained from dispersion modeling. Activity-based exposures were a substantial contributor to the upper end of the exposure distribution: 90th percentile S4 exposure estimates are ∼10 times higher than exposures from plant emissions. Pile playing is the strongest source of asbestos exposure in this cohort, with other activity scenarios contributing less than from plant emissions.

  7. Individual and cumulative impacts of fire emissions and tobacco consumption on wildland firefighters' total exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Marta; Slezakova, Klara; Magalhães, Carlos Pires; Fernandes, Adília; Teixeira, João Paulo; Delerue-Matos, Cristina; do Carmo Pereira, Maria; Morais, Simone

    2017-03-27

    There is limited information about wildland firefighters' exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), being scarce studies that included the impact of tobacco consumption. Thus, this work evaluated the individual and cumulative impacts of firefighting activities and smoking on wildland firefighters' total exposure to PAHs. Six urinary PAH metabolites (1-hydroxynaphthalene (1OHNaph), 1-hydroxyacenaphthene (1OHAce), 2-hydroxyfluorene (2OHFlu), 1-hydroxyphenanthrene (1OHPhen), 1-hydroxypyrene (1OHPy), and 3-hydroxybenzo[a]pyrene (3OHB[a]P)) were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. Firefighters from three fire stations were characterized and organized in three groups: non-smoking and non-exposed to fire emissions (NSNExp), smoking non-exposed (SNExp), and smoking exposed (SExp) individuals. 1OHNaph+1OHAce were the most predominant OH-PAHs (66-91% ∑OH-PAHs), followed by 2OHFlu (2.8-28%), 1OHPhen (1.3-7%), and 1OHPy (1.4-6%). 3OHB[a]P, the carcinogenicity PAH biomarker, was not detected. Regular consumption of tobacco increased 76-412% ∑OH-PAHs. Fire combat activities promoted significant increments of 158-551% ∑OH-PAHs. 2OHFlu was the most affected compound by firefighting activities (111-1068%), while 1OHNaph+1OHAce presented the more pronounced increments due to tobacco consumption (22-339%); 1OHPhen (76-176%) and 1OHPy (20-220%) were the least influenced ones. OH-PAH levels of SExp firefighters were significantly higher than in other groups, suggesting that these subjects may be more vulnerable to develop and/or aggravate diseases related with PAHs exposure.

  8. Cumulative Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders by Young Adulthood: A Prospective Cohort Analysis From the Great Smoky Mountains Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland, William; Shanahan, Lilly; Costello, E. Jane; Angold, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    Objective: No longitudinal studies beginning in childhood have estimated the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric illness from childhood into young adulthood. The objective of this study was to estimate the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric disorders by young adulthood and to assess how inclusion of not otherwise specified diagnoses affects…

  9. Cumulative Damage Studies of Conventional-Cast Composite-Modified Double-Base Propellant.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    This report describes results from a one-year study of cumulative damage mechanisms in conventional-cast, composite-modified, double-base ( CMDB ...propellant. Testing was performed on Hercules’ FKM propellant, which is a typical member of the CMDB propellant family. Test data were correlated to...provide usable design envelopes depicting CMDB propellant damage as a function of the number of loading cycles and the level of loading. Major emphasis in

  10. Cumulative versus Stabilizing Effects of Methadone Maintenance: A Quasi-Experimental Study Using Longitudinal Self-Report Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powers, Keiko Ichikawa; Anglin, M. Douglas

    1993-01-01

    Whether methadone maintenance treatment demonstrates cumulative (rehabilitative) or stabilizing effects on behavior of narcotics addicts over multiple treatment episodes was studied involving 993 addicts in a quasi-experimental design. Observed behavioral changes and longitudinal self-reports indicate stabilizing, but not cumulative, effects. (SLD)

  11. Race, Space, and Cumulative Disadvantage: A Case Study of the Subprime Lending Collapse

    PubMed Central

    Rugh, Jacob S.; Albright, Len; Massey, Douglas S.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities generate racialized patterns of subprime lending and lead to financial loss among black borrowers in segregated cities. We conceptualize race as a cumulative disadvantage because of its direct and indirect effects on socioeconomic status at the individual and neighborhood levels, with consequences that reverberate across a borrower's life and between generations. Using Baltimore, Maryland as a case study setting, we combine data from reports filed under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act with additional loan-level data from mortgage-backed securities. We find that race and neighborhood racial segregation are critical factors explaining black disadvantage across successive stages in the process of lending and foreclosure, controlling for differences in borrower credit scores, income, occupancy status, and loan-to-value ratios. We analyze the cumulative cost of predatory lending to black borrowers in terms of reduced disposable income and lost wealth. We find the cost to be substantial. Black borrowers paid an estimated additional 5 to 11 percent in monthly payments and those that completed foreclosure in the sample lost an excess of $2 million in home equity. These costs were magnified in mostly black neighborhoods and in turn heavily concentrated in communities of color. By elucidating the mechanisms that link black segregation to discrimination we demonstrate how processes of cumulative disadvantage continue to undermine black socioeconomic status in the United States today. PMID:27478254

  12. Race, Space, and Cumulative Disadvantage: A Case Study of the Subprime Lending Collapse.

    PubMed

    Rugh, Jacob S; Albright, Len; Massey, Douglas S

    2015-05-01

    In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities generate racialized patterns of subprime lending and lead to financial loss among black borrowers in segregated cities. We conceptualize race as a cumulative disadvantage because of its direct and indirect effects on socioeconomic status at the individual and neighborhood levels, with consequences that reverberate across a borrower's life and between generations. Using Baltimore, Maryland as a case study setting, we combine data from reports filed under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act with additional loan-level data from mortgage-backed securities. We find that race and neighborhood racial segregation are critical factors explaining black disadvantage across successive stages in the process of lending and foreclosure, controlling for differences in borrower credit scores, income, occupancy status, and loan-to-value ratios. We analyze the cumulative cost of predatory lending to black borrowers in terms of reduced disposable income and lost wealth. We find the cost to be substantial. Black borrowers paid an estimated additional 5 to 11 percent in monthly payments and those that completed foreclosure in the sample lost an excess of $2 million in home equity. These costs were magnified in mostly black neighborhoods and in turn heavily concentrated in communities of color. By elucidating the mechanisms that link black segregation to discrimination we demonstrate how processes of cumulative disadvantage continue to undermine black socioeconomic status in the United States today.

  13. A feasibility study of cumulative risk assessment methods for drinking water disinfection by-product mixtures.

    PubMed

    Teuschler, Linda K; Rice, Glenn E; Wilkes, Charles R; Lipscomb, John C; Power, Fred W

    Humans are exposed daily to complex mixtures of chemicals, including drinking water disinfection by-products (DBPs) via oral, dermal, and inhalation routes. Some positive epidemiological and toxicological studies suggest reproductive and developmental effects and cancer are associated with consumption of chlorinated drinking water. Thus, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted research to examine the feasibility of evaluating simultaneous exposures to multiple DBPs via all three exposure routes. A cumulative risk assessment approach was developed for DBP mixtures by combining exposure modeling and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling results with a new mixtures risk assessment method, the cumulative relative potency factors (CRPF) approach. Internal doses were estimated for an adult female and an adult male, each of reproductive age, and for a child (age 6 yr) inclusive of oral, dermal, and inhalation exposures. Estimates of the daily internal doses were made for 13 major DBPs, accounting for activity patterns that affect the amount of human contact time with drinking water (e.g., tap water consumed, time spent showering), building characteristics (e.g., household air volumes), and physicochemical properties of the DBPs (e.g., inhalation rates, skin permeability rates, blood: air partition coefficients). A novel cumulative risk assessment method, the CRPF approach, is advanced that integrates the principles of dose addition and response addition to produce multiple-route, chemical mixture risk estimates using total absorbed doses. Research needs to improve this approach are presented.

  14. Cumulative exposure to short sleep and body mass outcomes: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Krueger, Patrick M; Reither, Eric N; Peppard, Paul E; Burger, Andrew E; Hale, Lauren

    2015-12-01

    Short sleep duration is associated with excess body mass among adolescents and young adults. The mechanisms theorized to drive that association suggest that persistent exposure to short sleep should be associated with greater accumulations of body mass. We use prospective cohort data from four waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (1994-2009; n = 14 800) to examine associations between cumulative exposure to short sleep throughout adolescence and early adulthood and obesity and elevated waist circumference outcomes. We compare several clinical and distribution-based standards of short sleep to assess which measures are associated most strongly with body mass. Cumulative exposure to short sleep exhibits dose-response associations with obesity and elevated waist circumference. Relative to respondents with no instances of short sleep, those who slept -0.50 standard deviations or less than the age and sex-specific average sleep hours in all four waves had 1.45 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 2.04] times the odds of being obese and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.06) times the odds of having an elevated waist circumference. Our findings suggest that cumulative exposure to short sleep during adolescence and young adulthood may play an important role in the etiology of obesity and elevated waist circumference during this important developmental period.

  15. The population of big Earth approachers from their cumulative distribution and their impact frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galád, Adrián

    2002-11-01

    The total numbers of big Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Earth crossing asteroids (ECAs) are assessed from their cumulative distributions as a function of the absolute magnitude H. More than 1300 and probably even more than 1500 "big" NEAs with H≤18.0 may exist. About half of them belong to big ECAs. The intrinsic collision probability for the Earth Pi is derived from the number of asteroid approaches to the Earth within a distance of 0.1 AU and during a time period of 150 yr. According to the known population of big asteroids Pi is about 43×-18 yr-1km-2 only. The potentially big killers hit the Earth surface probably 3 times per million years, while smaller objects with H≤23.0 do so every 1000-2000 years.

  16. The impact of research synthesis methods on industrial-organizational psychology: The road from pessimism to optimism about cumulative knowledge.

    PubMed

    DeGeest, David S; Schmidt, Frank L

    2010-07-01

    This paper presents an account of the impact that research synthesis methods, in the form of psychometric meta-analysis, has had on industrial/organizational (I/O) psychology. This paper outlines the central contributions of psychometric meta-analysis in providing a method for developing cumulative knowledge. First, this paper describes the concerns and the state of the field before the development of meta-analytic methods. Second, the paper explains how meta-analysis addressed these concerns. Third, the paper details the development of psychometric meta-analysis through VG research and describes how the use of psychometric meta-analysis spread to other topic areas in the field. Finally, the paper presents illustrative example literatures, such as training and leadership, where meta-analysis had crucial impacts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Case-control study of cumulative cigarette tar exposure and lung and upper aerodigestive tract cancers.

    PubMed

    Meyers, Travis J; Chang, Shen-Chih; Chang, Po-Yin; Morgenstern, Hal; Tashkin, Donald P; Rao, Jian-Yu; Cozen, Wendy; Mack, Thomas M; Zhang, Zuo-Feng

    2017-05-01

    The development of comprehensive measures for tobacco exposure is crucial to specify effects on disease and inform public health policy. In this population-based case-control study, we evaluated the associations between cumulative lifetime cigarette tar exposure and cancers of the lung and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT). The study included 611 incident cases of lung cancer; 601 cases of UADT cancers (oropharyngeal, laryngeal and esophageal cancers); and 1,040 cancer-free controls. We estimated lifetime exposure to cigarette tar based on tar concentrations abstracted from government cigarette records and self-reported smoking histories derived from a standardized questionnaire. We analyzed the associations for cumulative tar exposure with lung and UADT cancer, overall and according to histological subtype. Cumulative tar exposure was highly correlated with pack-years among ever smoking controls (Pearson coefficient = 0.90). The adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence limits) for the estimated effect of about 1 kg increase in tar exposure (approximately the interquartile range in all controls) was 1.61 (1.50, 1.73) for lung cancer and 1.21 (1.13, 1.29) for UADT cancers. In general, tar exposure was more highly associated with small, squamous and large cell lung cancer than adenocarcinoma. With additional adjustment for pack-years, positive associations between tar and lung cancer were evident, particularly for small cell and large cell subtypes. Therefore, incorporating the composition of tobacco carcinogens in lifetime smoking exposure may improve lung cancer risk estimation. This study does not support the claim of a null or inverse association between "low exposure" to tobacco smoke and risk of these cancer types.

  18. Utility of the cumulative stress and mismatch hypotheses in understanding the neurobiological impacts of childhood abuse and recent stress in youth with emerging mental disorder.

    PubMed

    Paquola, Casey; Bennett, Maxwell R; Hatton, Sean N; Hermens, Daniel F; Lagopoulos, Jim

    2017-03-03

    Childhood abuse has an enduring impact on the brain's stress system. Whether the effects of childhood abuse and adulthood stress are additive (cumulative stress hypothesis) or interactive (mismatch hypothesis) is widely disputed, however. The primary aim of this study was to test the utility of the cumulative stress and mismatch hypotheses in understanding brain and behaviour. We recruited 64 individuals (aged 14-26) from a specialised clinic for assessment and early intervention of mental health problems in young people. A T1-weighted MRI, a resting state fMRI and clinical assessment were acquired from each participant. Grey matter estimates and resting state functional connectivity (rsFC) of the hippocampus, amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) were determined using segmentation and seed-to-voxel rsFC analyses. We explored the effects of childhood abuse and recent stress on the structure and function of the regions of interest within general linear models. Worse psychiatric symptoms were significantly related to higher levels of life time stress. Individuals with mismatched childhood and recent stress levels had reduced left hippocampal volume, reduced ACC-ventrolateral prefrontal cortex rsFC and greater ACC-hippocampus rsFC, compared to individuals with matched childhood and recent stress levels. These results show specific utility of the cumulative stress hypothesis in understanding psychiatric symptomatology and of the mismatch hypothesis in modelling hippocampal grey matter, prefrontal rsFC, and prefrontal-hippocampal rsFC. We provide novel evidence for the enduring impact of childhood abuse on stress reactivity in a clinical population, and demonstrate the distinct effects of stress in different systems. Hum Brain Mapp, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Theoretical technique for predicting the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in streams receiving discharge from coal mines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bobay, Keith E.

    1986-01-01

    Two U.S. Geological Survey computer programs are modified and linked to predict the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in coal-mine discharge water on the dissolved chemical quality of a receiving stream. The coupled programs calculate the changes in dissolved iron, dissolved manganese, and dissolved oxygen concentrations; alkalinity; and, pH of surface water downstream from the point of discharge. First, the one-dimensional, stead-state stream, water quality program uses a dissolved oxygen model to calculate the changes in concentration of elements as a function of the chemical reaction rates and time-of-travel. Second, a program (PHREEQE) combining pH, reduction-oxidation potential, and equilibrium equations uses an aqueous-ion association model to determine the saturation indices and to calculate pH; it then mixes the discharge with a receiving stream. The kinetic processes of the first program dominate the system, whereas the equilibrium thermodynamics of the second define the limits of the reactions. A comprehensive test of the technique was not possible because a complete set of data was unavailable. However, the cumulative impact of representative discharges from several coal mines on stream quality in a small watershed in southwestern Indiana was simulated to illustrate the operation of the technique and to determine its sensitivity to changes in physical, chemical, and kinetic parameters. Mine discharges averaged 2 cu ft/sec, with a pH of 6.0, and concentrations of 7.0 mg/L dissolved iron, 4.0 mg/L dissolved manganese, and 8.08 mg/L dissolved oxygen. The receiving stream discharge was 2 cu ft/sec, with a pH of 7.0, and concentrations of 0.1 mg/L dissolved iron, 0.1 mg/L dissolved manganese, and 8.70 mg/L dissolved oxygen. Results of the simulations indicated the following cumulative impact on the receiving stream from five discharges as compared with the effect from one discharge: 0.30 unit decrease in pH, 1.82 mg/L increase in dissolved

  20. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  1. Cumulative receipt of an anti-poverty tax credit for families did not impact tobacco smoking among parents.

    PubMed

    Pega, Frank; Gilsanz, Paola; Kawachi, Ichiro; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

    2017-04-01

    The effect of anti-poverty tax credit interventions on tobacco consumption is unclear. Previous studies have estimated short-term effects, did not isolate the effects of cumulative dose of tax credits, produced conflicting results, and used methods with limited control for some time-varying confounders (e.g., those affected by prior treatment) and treatment regimen (i.e., study participants' tax credit receipt pattern over time). We estimated the longer-term, cumulative effect of New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) on tobacco consumption, using a natural experiment (administrative errors leading to exogenous variation in FTC receipt) and methods specifically for controlling confounding, reverse causation, and treatment regimen. We extracted seven waves (2002-2009) of the nationally representative Survey of Family, Income and Employment including 4404 working-age (18-65 years) parents in families. The exposure was the total numbers of years of receiving FTC. The outcomes were regular smoking and the average daily number of cigarettes usually smoked at wave 7. We estimated average treatment effects using inverse probability of treatment weighting and marginal structural modelling. Each additional year of receiving FTC affected neither the odds of regular tobacco smoking among all parents (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.11), nor the number of cigarettes smoked among parents who smoked regularly (rate ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.03). We found no evidence for an association between the cumulative number of years of receiving an anti-poverty tax credit and tobacco smoking or consumption among parents. The assumptions of marginal structural modelling are quite demanding, and we therefore cannot rule out residual confounding. Nonetheless, our results suggest that tax credit programme participation will not increase tobacco consumption among poor parents, at least in this high-income country.

  2. Cumulative impacts of hurricanes on Florida mangrove ecosystems: Sediment deposition, storm surges and vegetation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, T. J.; Anderson, G.H.; Balentine, K.; Tiling, G.; Ward, G.A.; Whelan, K.R.T.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes have shaped the structure of mangrove forests in the Everglades via wind damage, storm surges and sediment deposition. Immediate effects include changes to stem size-frequency distributions and to species relative abundance and density. Long-term impacts to mangroves are poorly understood at present. We examine impacts of Hurricane Wilma on mangroves and compare the results to findings from three previous storms (Labor Day, Donna, Andrew). Surges during Wilma destroyed ??? 1,250 ha of mangroves and set back recovery that started following Andrew. Data from permanent plots affected by Andrew and Wilma showed no differences among species or between hurricanes for stem mortality or basal area lost. Hurricane damage was related to hydro-geomorphic type of forest. Basin mangroves suffered significantly more damage than riverine or island mangroves. The hurricane by forest type interaction was highly significant. Andrew did slightly more damage to island mangroves. Wilma did significantly more damage to basin forests. This is most likely a result of the larger and more spatially extensive storm surge produced by Wilma. Forest damage was not related to amount of sediment deposited. Analyses of reports from Donna and the Labor Day storm indicate that some sites have recovered following catastrophic disturbance. Other sites have been permanently converted into a different ecosystem, namely intertidal mudflats. Our results indicate that mangroves are not in a steady state as has been recently claimed. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  3. Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

    SciTech Connect

    Canter, L.W.; Chawla, M.K.; Swor, C.T.

    2014-01-15

    Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.

  4. Cumulative bioluminescence; A potential rapid test of drilling fluid toxicity: development study

    SciTech Connect

    Stiffey, A.V. )

    1992-03-01

    A new rapid test of drilling fluid toxicity is based on the spontaneous bioluminescence of Pyrocystis lunula, an easy-to-culture alga that vigorously responds to shear stress (mixing) by emitting a sharp burst of light. In contrast to other bioluminescence methods, a cumulative flux of light is measured with a photomultiplier that eliminates the effect of exposure time on test results. Light quenching, caused by the presence of a toxicant, results in the dose/response relationship (DSR) typical for the enzymatic reaction kinetics. The Michaelis-Menten (dissociation) constant is used as a direct measure of toxicity. The evaluation study involved multiple experiments with 60 samples of drilling fluids from the U.S. gulf coast, as well as such typical toxicants as diesel oil, mineral oil, and chrome lignosulfonate (CLS). In this paper, the results of the test error analysis and comparisons with the Microtox and Mysid shrimp assays are reported.

  5. Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Wallace, Cynthia; Webb, Robert H.

    2016-01-01

    Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R2 = 0.83 and 2010: R2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

  6. Percent relative cumulative frequency analysis in indirect calorimetry: application to studies of transgenic mice.

    PubMed

    Riachi, Marc; Himms-Hagen, Jean; Harper, Mary-Ellen

    2004-12-01

    Indirect calorimetry is commonly used in research and clinical settings to assess characteristics of energy expenditure. Respiration chambers in indirect calorimetry allow measurements over long periods of time (e.g., hours to days) and thus the collection of large sets of data. Current methods of data analysis usually involve the extraction of only a selected small proportion of data, most commonly the data that reflects resting metabolic rate. Here, we describe a simple quantitative approach for the analysis of large data sets that is capable of detecting small differences in energy metabolism. We refer to it as the percent relative cumulative frequency (PRCF) approach and have applied it to the study of uncoupling protein-1 (UCP1) deficient and control mice. The approach involves sorting data in ascending order, calculating their cumulative frequency, and expressing the frequencies in the form of percentile curves. Results demonstrate the sensitivity of the PRCF approach for analyses of oxygen consumption (.VO2) as well as respiratory exchange ratio data. Statistical comparisons of PRCF curves are based on the 50th percentile values and curve slopes (H values). The application of the PRCF approach revealed that energy expenditure in UCP1-deficient mice housed and studied at room temperature (24 degrees C) is on average 10% lower (p < 0.0001) than in littermate controls. The gradual acclimation of mice to 12 degrees C caused a near-doubling of .VO2 in both UCP1-deficient and control mice. At this lower environmental temperature, there were no differences in .VO2 between groups. The latter is likely due to augmented shivering thermogenesis in UCP1-deficient mice compared with controls. With the increased availability of murine models of metabolic disease, indirect calorimetry is increasingly used, and the PRCF approach provides a novel and powerful means for data analysis.

  7. The cumulative impacts of repeated heavy rainfall, flooding and altered water quality on the high-latitude coral reefs of Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Butler, I R; Sommer, B; Zann, M; Zhao, J-X; Pandolfi, J M

    2015-07-15

    Terrestrial runoff and flooding have resulted in major impacts on coral communities worldwide, but we lack detailed understanding of flood plume conditions and their ecological effects. Over the course of repeated flooding between 2010 and 2013, we measured coral cover and water quality on the high-latitude coral reefs of Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia. In 2013, salinity, total suspended solids, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were altered for up to six months post-flooding. Submarine groundwater caused hypo-saline conditions for a further four months. Despite the greater magnitude of flooding in 2013, declines in coral abundance (∼28%) from these floods were lower than the 2011 flood (∼40%), which occurred immediately after a decade of severe drought. There was an overall cumulative decrease of coral by ∼56% from 2010 to 2013. Our study highlights the need for local scale monitoring and research to facilitate informed management and conservation of catchments and marine environments.

  8. Cumulative Lead Exposure and Tooth Loss in Men: The Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Manish; Weuve, Jennifer; Weisskopf, Marc G.; Sparrow, David; Nie, Huiling; Garcia, Raul I.; Hu, Howard

    2009-01-01

    Background Individuals previously exposed to lead remain at risk because of endogenous release of lead stored in their skeletal compartments. However, it is not known if long-term cumulative lead exposure is a risk factor for tooth loss. Objectives We examined the association of bone lead concentrations with loss of natural teeth. Methods We examined 333 men enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Normative Aging Study. We used a validated K-shell X-ray fluorescence (KXRF) method to measure lead concentrations in the tibial midshaft and patella. A dentist recorded the number of teeth remaining, and tooth loss was categorized as 0, 1–8 or ≥ 9 missing teeth. We used proportional odds models to estimate the association of bone lead biomarkers with tooth loss, adjusting for age, smoking, diabetes, and other putative confounders. Results Participants with ≥ 9 missing teeth had significantly higher bone lead concentrations than those who had not experienced tooth loss. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, men in the highest tertile of tibia lead (> 23 μg/g) and patella lead (> 36 μg/g) had approximately three times the odds of having experienced an elevated degree of tooth loss (≥ 9 vs. 0–8 missing teeth or ≥ 1 vs. 0 missing teeth) as those in the lowest tertile [prevalence odds ratio (OR) = 3.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.60–5.76 and OR = 2.41; 95% CI, 1.30–4.49, respectively]. Associations between bone lead biomarkers and tooth loss were similar in magnitude to the increased odds observed in participants who were current smokers. Conclusion Long-term cumulative lead exposure is associated with increased odds of tooth loss. PMID:20019902

  9. Deterministic modelling of the cumulative impacts of underground structures on urban groundwater flow and the definition of a potential state of urban groundwater flow: example of Lyon, France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Winiarski, Thierry; Cuvillier, Loann; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2016-08-01

    Underground structures have been shown to have a great influence on subsoil resources in urban aquifers. A methodology to assess the actual and the potential state of the groundwater flow in an urban area is proposed. The study develops a three-dimensional modeling approach to understand the cumulative impacts of underground infrastructures on urban groundwater flow, using a case in the city of Lyon (France). All known underground structures were integrated in the numerical model. Several simulations were run: the actual state of groundwater flow, the potential state of groundwater flow (without underground structures), an intermediate state (without impervious structures), and a transient simulation of the actual state of groundwater flow. The results show that underground structures fragment groundwater flow systems leading to a modification of the aquifer regime. For the case studied, the flow systems are shown to be stable over time with a transient simulation. Structures with drainage systems are shown to have a major impact on flow systems. The barrier effect of impervious structures was negligible because of the small hydraulic gradient of the area. The study demonstrates that the definition of a potential urban groundwater flow and the depiction of urban flow systems, which involves understanding the impact of underground structures, are important issues with respect to urban underground planning.

  10. Addressing Potential Cumulative Impacts of Development on Threatened Species: The Case of the Endangered Black-Throated Finch

    PubMed Central

    Vanderduys, Eric Peter; Reside, April E.; Grice, Anthony; Rechetelo, Juliana

    2016-01-01

    Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development, policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However, developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland's Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted, extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland, Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore, insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning, especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection. PMID:26934622

  11. Cumulative exergy extraction from the natural environment (CEENE): a comprehensive life cycle impact assessment method for resource accounting.

    PubMed

    Dewulf, J; Bösch, M E; De Meester, B; Van der Vorst, G; Van Langenhove, H; Hellweg, S; Huijbregts, M A J

    2007-12-15

    The objective of the paper is to establish a comprehensive resource-based life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) method which is scientifically sound and that enables to assess all kinds of resources that are deprived from the natural ecosystem, all quantified on one single scale, free of weighting factors. The method is based on the exergy concept. Consistent exergy data on fossils, nuclear and metal ores, minerals, air, water, land occupation, and renewable energy sources were elaborated, with well defined system boundaries. Based on these data, the method quantifies the exergy "taken away" from natural ecosystems, and is thus called the cumulative exergy extraction from the natural environment (CEENE). The acquired data set was coupled with a state-of-the art life cycle inventory database, ecoinvent. In this way, the method is able to quantitatively distinguish eight categories of resources withdrawn from the natural environment: renewable resources, fossil fuels, nuclear energy, metal ores, minerals, water resources, land resources, and atmospheric resources. Third, the CEENE method is illustrated for a number of products that are available in ecoinvent, and results are compared with common resource oriented LCIA methods. The application to the materials in the ecoinvent database showed that fossil resources and land use are of particular importance with regard to the total CEENE score, although the other resource categories may also be significant.

  12. Addressing Potential Cumulative Impacts of Development on Threatened Species: The Case of the Endangered Black-Throated Finch.

    PubMed

    Vanderduys, Eric Peter; Reside, April E; Grice, Anthony; Rechetelo, Juliana

    2016-01-01

    Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development, policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However, developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland's Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted, extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland, Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore, insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning, especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection.

  13. Using cumulative sums of martingale residuals for model checking in nested case-control studies.

    PubMed

    Borgan, Ørnulf; Zhang, Ying

    2015-09-01

    Standard use of Cox regression requires collection of covariate information for all individuals in a cohort even when only a small fraction of them experiences the event of interest (fail). This may be very expensive for large cohorts. Further in biomarker studies, it will imply a waste of valuable biological material that one may want to save for future studies. A nested case-control study offers a useful alternative. For this design, covariate information is only needed for the failing individuals (cases) and a sample of controls selected from the cases' at-risk sets. Methods based on martingale residuals are useful for checking the fit of Cox's regression model for cohort data. But similar methods have so far not been developed for nested case-control data. In this article, it is described how one may define martingale residuals for nested case-control data, and it is shown how plots and tests based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals may be used to check model fit. The plots and tests may be obtained using available software.

  14. Cumulative impacts of aggregate extraction on seabed macro-invertebrate communities in an area off the east coast of the United Kingdom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, Keith; Boyd, Siân; Aldridge, John; Rees, Hubert

    2007-05-01

    This study investigates whether there is any evidence of a large-scale cumulative impact on benthic macro-invertebrate communities as a result of the multiple sites of aggregate extraction located off Great Yarmouth in the southern North Sea. Forty 0.1 m 2 Hamon grab samples were collected from across the region, both within and beyond the extraction area, and analysed for macrofauna and sediment particle size distribution in order to produce a regional description of the status of the seabed environment. In addition, the data were analysed in relation to the area of seabed impacted by dredging over the period 1993-1998. Areas subject to 'direct' impacts were determined through reference to annual electronic records of dredging activity and this information was then used to model the likely extent of areas potentially subject to 'indirect' ecological and geophysical impact. Results showed the study area to be characterised by sands in the northern half of the survey area, and sandy gravels in the south. The low diversity communities found across much of the survey area were typical of mobile sandy sediments. However, stations located in the southern half and northern extreme of the survey area tended to support higher numbers of species and individuals. This may be due to marginally enhanced stability arising from the higher proportion of gravel found in samples to the south of the extraction licenses and to the presence of Sabellaria spinulosa reef in the north. Analysis of data in relation to areas of predicted dredging impact revealed proportionally less gravel and more sand within the 'direct' impact zone, compared to the 'indirect' impact zone. Whilst multivariate analyses of macrofaunal data did not clearly discriminate between dredging impact zones, a comparison of univariate measures revealed significantly lower numbers of species and individuals in areas which have been subject to 'direct' dredging impacts in comparison with 'reference' areas. This

  15. Spatial and temporal assessment of cumulative disturbance impacts due to military training, burning, haying, and their interactions on land condition of Fort Riley.

    PubMed

    Wang, Guangxing; Murphy, Dana; Oller, Adam; Howard, Heidi R; Anderson, Alan B; Rijal, Santosh; Myers, Natalie R; Woodford, Philip

    2014-07-01

    The effects of military training activities on the land condition of Army installations vary spatially and temporally. Training activities observably degrade land condition while also increasing biodiversity and stabilizing ecosystems. Moreover, other anthropogenic activities regularly occur on military lands such as prescribed burns and agricultural haying-adding to the dynamics of land condition. Thus, spatially and temporally assessing the impacts of military training, prescribed burning, agricultural haying, and their interactions is critical to the management of military lands. In this study, the spatial distributions and patterns of military training-induced disturbance frequency were derived using plot observation and point observation-based method, at Fort Riley, Kansas from 1989 to 2001. Moreover, spatial and variance analysis of cumulative impacts due to military training, burning, haying, and their interactions on the land condition of Fort Riley were conducted. The results showed that: (1) low disturbance intensity dominated the majority of the study area with exception of concentrated training within centralized areas; (2) high and low values of disturbance frequency were spatially clustered and had spatial patterns that differed significantly from a random distribution; and (3) interactions between prescribed burning and agricultural haying were not significant in terms of either soil erosion or disturbance intensity although their means and variances differed significantly between the burned and non-burned areas and between the hayed and non-hayed areas.

  16. A Longitudinal Study of Reading Comprehension Achievement from Grades 3 to 10: Investigating Models of Stability, Cumulative Growth, and Compensation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwiatkowska-White, Bozena; Kirby, John R.; Lee, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    This longitudinal study of 78 Canadian English-speaking students examined the applicability of the stability, cumulative, and compensatory models in reading comprehension development. Archival government-mandated assessments of reading comprehension at Grades 3, 6, and 10, and the Canadian Test of Basic Skills measure of reading comprehension…

  17. Contested Cumulations:

    PubMed Central

    Pickstone, John V.

    2007-01-01

    Summary The treatment of cancer through the twentieth century may be seen as the successive addition of modalities: first surgery; then radiotherapy, especially between the world wars; and then chemotherapy, from the 1960s. This paper explores some of the systematic differences between the modalities, and how these additions were negotiated in different countries, with different long-term consequences for the development of services and specialization. It focuses chiefly on the United Kingdom and the United States, the former exemplifying a centralized health polity, and the latter, liberal markets combined with large and crucial postwar inputs from government. The differences between health polities were especially important for interwar radiotherapy, which in its centralized form appeared as paradigmatic of the analytical/rationalizing mode in modern medicine. Chemotherapy exemplified a more inventive and experimentalist mode that became common after World War II, and that, through the practice of trials, shaped the new subprofession of medical oncology. The interactions of the modalities, at various levels, are modeled as contested cumulations showing strong path dependency. The paper ends by reviewing the present situation, especially for Britain, and by underlining the relevance of history. PMID:17369667

  18. Cumulative success rates following mild IVF in unselected infertile patients: a 3-year, single-centre cohort study.

    PubMed

    Bodri, Daniel; Kawachiya, Satoshi; De Brucker, Michaël; Tournaye, Herman; Kondo, Masae; Kato, Ryutaro; Matsumoto, Tsunekazu

    2014-05-01

    A 3-year, retrospective, single-centre cohort study was conducted in a private infertility centre to determine cumulative live birth rates (LBR) per scheduled oocyte retrieval following minimal ovarian stimulation/natural-cycle IVF in unselected infertile patients. A total of 727 consecutive infertile patients were analysed who underwent 2876 (median 4) cycles with scheduled oocyte retrieval from November 2008 to December 2011. Natural-cycle IVF or clomiphene-based minimal ovarian stimulation was coupled with single-embryo transfer and increased use of delayed vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer. Main outcome measures were crude and expected age-specific cumulative LBR per scheduled oocyte retrieval. Crude cumulative LBR were 65%, 60%, 39%, 15% and 5% in patients aged 26-34, 35-37, 38-40, 41-42 and 43-44 years, respectively. No live births occurred in patients aged ⩾ 45 years. Dropout rates per cycle were 13-25%. Success rates gradually reached a plateau, with few additional live births after six cycles. Most of the expected success rate was reached within 6 months with almost maximal rates within 15 months of the first oocyte retrieval. Acceptable cumulative LBR are reached with an exclusive minimal ovarian stimulation/single-embryo transfer policy especially in patients aged <38 years but also in intermediate aged patients (38-40 years).

  19. Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

    PubMed Central

    Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

    2015-01-01

    Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; p<.001) and increased IMT progression from 2001 to 2007 (b=.003; se=.001; p=.001). The associations were robust to adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

  20. Cumulative potential hydrologic impacts of surface coal mining in the eastern Powder River structural basin, northeastern Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, L.J.; Naftz, D.L.; Lowham, H.W.; Rankl, J.G.

    1988-01-01

    There are 16 existing and six proposed surface coal mines in the eastern Powder River structural basin of northeastern Wyoming. Coal mining companies predict water level declines of 5 ft or more in the Wasatch aquifer to extend form about 1,000 to about 2,000 ft beyond the mine pits. The predicted 5 ft water level decline in the Wyodak coal aquifer generally extends 4-8 mi beyond the lease areas. About 3,000 wells are in the area of potential cumulative water level declines resulting from all anticipated mining. Of these 3,000 wells, about 1,200 are outside the areas of anticipated mining: about 1,000 wells supply water for domestic or livestock uses, and about 200 wells supply water for municipal, industrial, irrigation, and miscellaneous uses. The 1,800 remaining wells are used by coal mining companies. Future surface coal mining probably will result in postmining groundwater of similar quality to that currently present in the study area. By use of geochemical modeling techniques, the results of a hypothetical reaction path exercise indicate the potential for marked improvements in postmining water quality because of chemical reactions as postmining groundwater with a large dissolved solids concentration (3,540 mg/L) moves into a coal aquifer with relatively small dissolved solids concentrations (910 mg/L). Results of the modeling exercise also indicate geochemical conditions that are most ideal for large decreases in dissolved solids concentrations in coal aquifers receiving recharge from a spoil aquifer. (Lantz-PTT)

  1. Shale Gas, Wind and Water: Assessing the Potential Cumulative Impacts of Energy Development on Ecosystem Services within the Marcellus Play

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Jeffrey S.; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km2 in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades. PMID:24586599

  2. Shale gas, wind and water: assessing the potential cumulative impacts of energy development on ecosystem services within the Marcellus play.

    PubMed

    Evans, Jeffrey S; Kiesecker, Joseph M

    2014-01-01

    Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km(2) in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades.

  3. Respiratory exposures associated with silicon carbide production: estimation of cumulative exposures for an epidemiological study.

    PubMed Central

    Smith, T J; Hammond, S K; Laidlaw, F; Fine, S

    1984-01-01

    Silicon carbide is produced by heating a mixture of petroleum coke and silica sand to approximately 2000 degrees C in an electric furnace for 36 hours. During heating, large amounts of carbon monoxide are released, sulphur dioxide is produced from residual sulphur in the coke, and hydrocarbon fume is produced by pyrolysis of the coke. Loading and unloading furnaces causes exposures to respirable dust containing crystalline silica, silicon carbide, and hydrocarbons. In the autumn of 1980 extensive measurements were made of personal exposures to air contaminants. Eight hour time weighted exposures to sulphur dioxide ranged from less than 0.1 ppm to 1.5 ppm and respirable participate exposures ranged from 0.01 mg/m3 to 9.0 mg/m3. Geometric mean particulate exposures for jobs ranged from 0.1 mg/m3 to 1.46 mg/m3. The particulate contained varying amounts of alpha-quartz, ranging from less than 1% to 17%, and most quartz exposures were substantially below the threshold limit value of 100 micrograms/m3. Only traces of cristobalite (less than 1%) were found in the particulate. Median exposures to air contaminants in each job were estimated. Since the operations at the plant had been stable over the past 30 years, it was possible to estimate long term exposures of workers to sulphur dioxide, respirable particulate, quartz, total inorganic material, and extractable organic material. Cumulative exposure (average concentration times exposure duration) for each of the air contaminants was estimated for each worker using his job history. There was sufficient independent variability in the sulphur dioxide and respirable particulate cumulative exposures to make an assessment of their independent effects feasible. The theoretical basis for using the cumulative exposure index and its shortcomings for epidemiological applications were presented. PMID:6691927

  4. Fine-scale traverses in cumulate rocks, Stillwater Complex: A lunar analogue study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elthon, Donald

    1988-01-01

    The objective was to document finite-scale compositional variations in cumulate rocks from the Stillwater Complex in Montana and to interpret these data in the context of planetary magma fractionation processes such as those operative during the formation of the Earth's Moon. This research problem involved collecting samples in the Stillwater Complex and analyzing them by electron microprobe, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The electron microprobe is used to determine the compositions of cumulus and intercumulus phases in the rocks, the XRF is used to determine the bulk-rock major element and trace element (Y, Sr, Rb, Zr, Ni, and Cr) abundances, and the INAA lab. is used to determine the trace element (Sc, Co, Cr, Ni, Ta, Hf, U, Th, and the REE) abundances of mineral separates and bulk rocks.

  5. Playing it safe: assessing cumulative impact and social vulnerability through an environmental justice screening method in the South Coast Air Basin, California.

    PubMed

    Sadd, James L; Pastor, Manuel; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Scoggins, Justin; Jesdale, Bill

    2011-05-01

    Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB), have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ) advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM) as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard proximity and land use; (2) air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3) social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES) measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI) score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns.

  6. Cumulative systolic blood pressure exposure in relation to cognitive function in middle-aged and elderly adults: A prospective, population-based study.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jie; Huang, Yuling; Chen, Guojuan; Liu, Xiaoxue; Wang, Zhijun; Cao, Yibin; Li, Haitao; Song, Lu; Li, Chunhui; Zhao, Hualing; Chen, Shuohua; Wang, Yiming; Zhang, Ruiying; Wang, Anxin; Wu, Shouling

    2016-11-01

    The association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cognitive function is controversial in elderly adults. In addition, few studies focused on the cumulative effect of SBP. We aimed to investigate the association between cumulative SBP exposure and cognitive function among middle-aged and elderly adults.The analysis was based on the Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities Community (APAC) study. The primary predictor was the cumulative SBP calculated by consecutive SBP values measured through baseline (2006-2007) up to the fourth examination (2012-2013). The cognitive function was estimated by mini-mental state examination (MMSE) in the fourth examination. Linear regression and logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the association between cumulative SBP and cognitive function.Among 2211 participants (41.4% female, aged 40-94 years), 167 (7.55%) were diagnosed with cognitive impairment (MMSE score < 24). Higher cumulative exposure to SBP (per SD increment) was independently associated with poor cognitive performance after controlling for multiple factors (P < 0.001). We observed nondifferential association between men and women. However, higher cumulative SBP in the adults aged ≥60 years had a stronger association with poor cognitive performance compared with that in adults aged 40 to 60 years.Greater exposure to cumulative SBP is associated with worse cognitive performance among middle-aged and elderly adults. This association is similar between men and women, but stronger in elderly adults.

  7. Testing a cumulative and aggregate exposure model using biomonitoring studies and dietary records for Italian vineyard spray operators.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Marc C; Glass, C Richard; Fustinoni, Silvia; Moretto, Angelo; Mandic-Rajcevic, Stefan; Riso, Patrizia; Turrini, Aida; van der Voet, Hilko; Hetmanski, Michel T; Fussell, Richard J; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    The need for improved tools to estimate the cumulative and aggregate exposure to compounds such as plant protection products (PPPs) is recognised in the EU Regulation 1107/2009. A new model has been developed to estimate the exposure within a population to single compounds or compounds within a Cumulative Action Group, considering dietary and non-dietary sources and multiple exposure routes. To test the model a field study was carried out in Italy with operators applying tebuconazole fungicides, with measurements of dermal exposure collected. Whole urine samples were collected and analysed to provide values for the absorbed dose of tebuconazole, with duplicate diet samples collected and analysed as a measure of dietary exposures. The model provided predicted values of exposure for combined dietary and non-dietary routes of exposures which were compared to the measured absorbed dose values based on urinary analysis. The model outputs provided mean daily exposure values of 1.77 (± 1.96) µg a.s./kg BW which are comparable to measured mean values from the biomonitoring field study of 1.73 (± 1.31) µg a.s./kg BW. To supplement the limited measurement data available, comparisons against other models were also made and found to be comparable.

  8. In-vivo measurements of Pb-210 to determine cumulative exposure to radon daughters: A pilot study

    SciTech Connect

    Laurer, G.R.; Cohen, N. . Dept. of Environmental Medicine); Stark, A.; Ju, C. . Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology)

    1991-05-01

    The objective of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of estimating cumulative exposure of individuals to low concentrations of radon by measuring the amount of Pb-A-10 in their skeletons. This report presents progress to date establishing the validity of an vivo technique to measure skeletal burdens of Pb-210, accumulated from exposure to radon and radon progeny. With the skeletal content of Pb--210 and a model for Pb metabolism, cumulative exposure to radon and its short-lived daughters (radon/daughters) may be calculated for use in deriving a dose-response relationship between lung cancer and exposure to radon/daughters. Data are presented for 29 subjects exposed to above-average'' radon concentrations in their homes, showing the correlation between measured Pb--210 burdens, and measured pCi/l and WLM exposure estimates. Their results are compared to measurements of a population of 24 subject's presumed exposed to average concentrations. Measurements of a Pennsylvania family exposed for a year in a home with an extremely high radon content are also presented. Update of results of an ongoing study of the biological half-time of Pb--210 in man involving measurements, of a retired radiation worker with a 40 year old skeletal burden of Pb-210.

  9. A Comparative Study of the College Entrance Examination Board Validity Study Service and Freshmen Cumulative Point Averages.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bukowski, Joseph E.

    The success with which freshmen cumulative point averages may be predicted from a combination of a student's high school rank, Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) score (Verbal) and SAT score (Mathematics) was investigated. A multiple regression formula developed by the College Entrance Examination Board was used to combine the three predictors into a…

  10. Cumulative second-harmonic analysis of ultrasonic Lamb waves for ageing behavior study of modified-HP austenite steel.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Yanxun; Deng, Mingxi; Xuan, Fu-Zhen; Liu, Chang-Jun

    2011-12-01

    The cumulative second-harmonic analysis of ultrasonic Lamb wave has been performed to study the precipitation kinetics and microvoid initiation of ferritic Cr-Ni alloy steel during the ageing process. Ageing of ferritic Cr-Ni alloy materials have been done at 1223 K and 1173 K for different degradation time intervals and air cooled. The results show that the normalized acoustic nonlinearity of Lamb wave increases with the formation of fine precipitates at the early stage of ageing till about 1000 h and keeps as a plateau with the precipitates dynamic balance for a long-term ageing, and then decreases gradually at the final holding time with the coarsening of precipitates and initiation of microvoids. The results also show that the variation of nonlinear Lamb wave follows the same trend as that of hardness in materials. Therefore, the cumulative second-harmonic of ultrasonic Lamb waves has been found to be strongly sensitive to the precipitates behavior and microstructure evolution during the thermal ageing of ferritic Cr-Ni alloy steel.

  11. In-vivo measurements of Pb-210 to determine cumulative exposure to radon daughters: A pilot study

    SciTech Connect

    Laurer, G.R.; Cohen, N. . Inst. of Environmental Medicine); Stark, A.; Ju, C. . Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology)

    1990-10-01

    The feasibility of measuring Pb-210 in vivo in the skulls of those individuals who have resided in homes with above average levels of radon/radon daughters, has now been successfully demonstrated. These values, when incorporated into metabolic models of Pb-210 in the body including other related physical parameters, can be used for the calculation of a realistic estimate of a resident's cumulative exposure to radon and its' decay products. Data are presented for 26 subjects exposed to higher than average concentrations of radon i.e. ranging from 10 to 120 pCi/l, for various periods of time. Their skeletal Pb-210 burdens are compared to measurement results of a population of individuals presumed to have been exposed to values which are more representative of average levels i.e. <1pCi/1. Results of a study to determine the biological retention of Pb-210 in the human skeleton for use in the metabolic model relating skull burdens of this nuclide to cumulative radon/daughter exposure, are also described. At the present time, our measurements, made over a period of 10 years, of an individual with a significant Pb-210 burden, indicate a biological half-time of approximately 57 years and an effective half-life of 16 years. 4 refs., 11 figs.

  12. The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Delgado, E A

    2015-12-15

    Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful.

  13. Ground-Truthing Validation to Assess the Effect of Facility Locational Error on Cumulative Impacts Screening Tools

    EPA Science Inventory

    Over the past three decades, a number of researchers in the fields of environmental justice (EJ) and environmental public health have highlighted the existence of regional and local scale differences in exposure to air pollution, as well as calculated health risk and impacts of a...

  14. Older adults’ transportation walking: a cross-sectional study on the cumulative influence of physical environmental factors

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The physical environment may play a crucial role in promoting older adults’ walking for transportation. However, previous studies on relationships between the physical environment and older adults’ physical activity behaviors have reported inconsistent findings. A possible explanation for these inconsistencies is the focus upon studying environmental factors separately rather than simultaneously. The current study aimed to investigate the cumulative influence of perceived favorable environmental factors on older adults’ walking for transportation. Additionally, the moderating effect of perceived distance to destinations on this relationship was studied. Methods The sample was comprised of 50,685 non-institutionalized older adults residing in Flanders (Belgium). Cross-sectional data on demographics, environmental perceptions and frequency of walking for transportation were collected by self-administered questionnaires in the period 2004-2010. Perceived distance to destinations was categorized into short, medium, and large distance to destinations. An environmental index (=a sum of favorable environmental factors, ranging from 0 to 7) was constructed to investigate the cumulative influence of favorable environmental factors. Multilevel logistic regression analyses were applied to predict probabilities of daily walking for transportation. Results For short distance to destinations, probability of daily walking for transportation was significantly higher when seven compared to three, four or five favorable environmental factors were present. For medium distance to destinations, probabilities significantly increased for an increase from zero to four favorable environmental factors. For large distance to destinations, no relationship between the environmental index and walking for transportation was observed. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the presence of multiple favorable environmental factors can motivate older adults to walk medium distances

  15. Cumulative impact of a clover cover crop on the persistence and efficacy of Beauveria bassiana in suppressing the pecan weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

    PubMed

    Shapiro-Ilan, David I; Gardner, Wayne A; Wells, Lenny; Wood, Bruce W

    2012-04-01

    The pecan weevil, Curculio caryae (Horn), is a key pest of pecan. Endemic levels of the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana (Balsamo) Vuillemin can occur in pecan orchards and contribute to natural control of C. caryae. Commercial formulations of the fungus can also be applied for suppression of C. caryae. We hypothesized that a clover cover crop enhances B. bassiana efficacy and persistence (e.g., by protecting the fungus against abiotic environmental stresses). The hypothesis was tested by conducting field trials in a pecan orchard in Byron, GA, in 2009 and 2010. The study included four treatments arranged in a factorial with two levels of fungus (endemic fungus only, and application of a commercial B. bassiana product), and two levels of clover (white clover, Trifolium repens L., and no clover). Fungal persistence was measured by determining the number of CFUs per gram of soil over time (during 42 d postapplication of B. bassiana in 2009 and 29 d in 2010). Efficacy was measured by capturing naturally emerging C. caryae and subsequently determining mortality and mycosis (over 24 d in 2009 and 17 d in 2010). In 2009, greater prevalence of B. bassiana conidia was detected in plots receiving fungal applications compared with no fungus applications, and no clear effect of clover was observed in plots receiving B. bassiana applications in either year. In 2010, B. bassiana prevalence in the endemic fungus plus clover treatment was higher than fungus without clover, and was similar to plots receiving additional B. bassiana applications. Given that we observed enhanced persistence of endemic B. bassiana in 2010 but not 2009, the impact of clover appears to be a cumulative effect. Mortality of C. caryae (averaged over the sampling periods) ranged between 68-74% in plots receiving B. bassiana applications and 51-56% in plots with endemic fungus only. C. caryae mortality and mycosis data also provided evidence that endemic B. bassiana efficacy was enhanced by clover

  16. Summary of studies supporting cumulative effects analysis of upper Yellowstone River channel modifications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Auble, Gregor T.; Bowen, Zachary H.; Bovee, Ken D.; Farmer, Adrian H.; Sexton, Natalie R.; Waddle, Terry J.

    2004-01-01

    The largest portion of the document is an Appendix that summarizes each of the individual scientific studies in terms of scope and methods, findings, principal variables, and metrics used in the study or suggested by the study results, and important needs for further study.

  17. Cumulative Resting Heart Rate Exposure and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: Results from the Kailuan Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Quanhui; Li, Haibin; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Yu, Junxing; Luo, Yanxia; Chen, Shuohua; Tao, Lixin; Li, Yuqing; Li, Aiping; Guo, Xiuhua; Wu, Shouling

    2017-01-01

    The relationship between cumulative exposure to resting heart rate (cumRHR) and mortality remain unclear in the general population. In the Kailuan cohort study, resting heart rate (RHR) was repeatedly measured at baseline and at years 2 and 4 by electrocardiogram among 47,311 adults aged 48.70 ± 11.68. The cumRHR was defined as the summed average RHR between two consecutive examinations multiplied by the time interval between with two examinations [(beats/min) * year]. A higher RHR was defined as ≥80 beats/min, and the number of visits with a higher RHR was counted. During a median of 4.06 years of follow-up, a total of 1,025 participants died. After adjusting for major traditional cardiovascular risk factors and baseline RHR, the hazard ratio for the highest versus lowest quartile of cumRHR was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.07–1.81) for all-cause mortality. Each 1-SD increment in cumRHR was associated with a 37% (HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.23–1.52) increased risk of death and displayed a J-shaped relationship. Compared with no exposure, adults who had a higher RHR at all 3 study visits were associated with a 1.86-fold higher risk (95% CI: 1.33–2.61) of mortality. In summary, cumulative exposure to higher RHR is independently associated with an increased risk of mortality. PMID:28067310

  18. Lead-Related Genetic Loci, Cumulative Lead Exposure and Incident Coronary Heart Disease: The Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Weisskopf, Marc G.; Sparrow, David; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard; Park, Sung Kyun

    2016-01-01

    Background Cumulative exposure to lead is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Polymorphisms in the δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD), hemochromatosis (HFE), heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX1), vitamin D receptor (VDR), glutathione S-transferase (GST) supergene family (GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1), apolipoprotein E (APOE),angiotensin II receptor-1 (AGTR1) and angiotensinogen (AGT) genes, are believed to alter toxicokinetics and/or toxicodynamics of lead. Objectives We assessed possible effect modification by genetic polymorphisms in ALAD, HFE, HMOX1, VDR, GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1, APOE, AGTR1 and AGT individually and as the genetic risk score (GRS) on the association between cumulative lead exposure and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Methods We used K-shell-X-ray fluorescence to measure bone lead levels. GRS was calculated on the basis of 22 lead-related loci. We constructed Cox proportional hazard models to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CHD. We applied inverse probability weighting to account for potential selection bias due to recruitment into the bone lead sub-study. Results Significant effect modification was found by VDR, HMOX1, GSTP1, APOE, and AGT genetic polymorphisms when evaluated individually. Further, the bone lead-CHD associations became larger as GRS increases. After adjusting for potential confounders, a HR of CHD was 2.27 (95%CI: 1.50–3.42) with 2-fold increase in patella lead levels, among participants in the top tertile of GRS. We also detected an increasing trend in HRs across tertiles of GRS (p-trend = 0.0063). Conclusions Our findings suggest that lead-related loci as a whole may play an important role in susceptibility to lead-related CHD risk. These findings need to be validated in a separate cohort containing bone lead, lead-related genetic loci and incident CHD data. PMID:27584680

  19. Higher Order Cumulant Studies of Ocean Surface Random Fields from Satellite Altimeter Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, B.

    1996-01-01

    Higher order statistics, especially 2nd order statistics, have been used to study ocean processes for many years in the past, and occupy an appreciable part of the research literature on physical oceanography. They in turn form part of a much larger field of study in statistical fluid mechanics.

  20. Body mass index and risk of non-melanoma skin cancer: cumulative evidence from prospective studies

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Daijun; Wu, Jun; Luo, Gaoxing

    2016-01-01

    Prospective epidemiologic studies that investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) yielded inconsistent findings. A dose-response meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively summarize the evidence. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for relevant studies. Study-specific relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for an increase in BMI of 5 kg/m2 was computed with the generalized least squares trend estimation, and these risk estimates were combined with the random-effects model. Nine publications were included in the final analyses, consisting of 18 independent cohorts with 22 risk estimates (971,795 participants and 50,561 NMSC cases). Results of the dose-response analyses showed a nonlinear inverse relationship between BMI and NMSC (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.85–0.91, I2 = 71.2%, P-nonlinearity <0.001), which persisted when limiting to the studies with adjustment for important potential confounders including sun exposure and sensitivity factors. The risk estimates were very similar for squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma. Sex appeared a source of heterogeneity (P-difference = 0.06), with a weaker, but still significant inverse association in men than in women. This dose-response meta-analysis suggests a nonlinear inverse association between BMI and NMSC. PMID:27898109

  1. Teaching Research through Field Studies: A Cumulative Opportunity for Teaching Methodology to Human Geography Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Panelli, Ruth; Welch, Richard V.

    2005-01-01

    Notwithstanding its iconic status within geography, the debate continues about how fieldwork should be taught to undergraduate students. The authors engage with this debate and argue that field studies should follow the teaching of research methodology. In this paper they review relevant literature on the place of fieldwork in geography training,…

  2. Cumulative Vulnerability: A Case Study on intrafamilial violence, Drug Addiction and Adolescent Pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Miura, Paula Orchiucci; Passarini, Gislaine Martins Ricardo; Ferreira, Loraine Seixas; Paixão, Rui Alexandre Paquete; Tardivo, Leila Salomão de La Plata Cury; Barrientos, Dora Mariela Salcedo

    2014-12-01

    A pregnant adolescent's vulnerability increases when she is a victim of intrafamilial violence and drug addiction, which cause physical and biopsychosocial damage to the mother and her baby. Objective Present and analyze the case of an adolescent who is addicted to drugs, pregnant and the victim of lifelong intrafamilial violence. Method A case study based on a semi-structured interview conducted in the Obstetrics Emergency Unit at the Teaching Hospital of the University of São Paulo. The data were interpreted and analyzed using Content Analysis. Results intrafamilial violence experienced at the beginning of the adolescent's early relationships seriously affected her emotional maturity, triggering the development of psychopathologies and leaving her more susceptible to the use and abuse of alcohol and other drugs. The adolescent is repeating her history with her daughter, reproducing the cycle of violence. Conclusion Adolescent pregnancy combined with intrafamilial violence and drug addiction and multiplies the adolescent's psychosocial vulnerability increased the adolescent's vulnerability.

  3. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

    1990-01-01

    Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

  4. Cumulative risk assessment of phthalates associated with birth outcomes in pregnant Chinese women: A prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Gao, Hui; Xu, Yuan-Yuan; Huang, Kun; Ge, Xing; Zhang, Yun-Wei; Yao, Hui-Yuan; Xu, Ye-Qing; Yan, Shuang-Qin; Jin, Zhong-Xiu; Sheng, Jie; Zhu, Peng; Hao, Jia-Hu; Tao, Fang-Biao

    2017-03-01

    A prospective cohort study of a Chinese population of mother-neonate pairs (n = 3103) was conducted to investigate the relationship between the cumulative hazard index (HI) of combined diethyl phthalate (DEP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), dibenzyl phthalate (BBzP) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) exposure and birth outcomes. The estimated HI for phthalates was based on phthalate metabolite concentrations in urine collected between 5th and 14th gestational weeks. The median HI values according to the European Food Safety Authority tolerable daily intake (HITDI) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reference dose (HIRfD) were 0.358 and 0.187, respectively. A total of 16.3% and 1.9% of the women exhibited HITDI and HIRfD exceeding the value of one, respectively. In unadjusted models, the categories (low < P25, median P25-P50, high > P75) of HITDI were associated with decreased birth weight (β = -26.34 g, p = 0.021) and head circumference (β = -0.09 cm, p = 0.029), whereas those for HIRfD were negatively associated with birth weight (β = -31.74 g, p = 0.005), birth length (β = -0.11 cm, p = 0.032), head circumference (β = -0.13 cm, p = 0.003) and chest circumference (β = -0.10 cm, p = 0.021) in all neonates. Adjustment for potential confounders revealed that HIRfD was inversely associated with head circumference (β = -0.10 cm, p = 0.020). Stratification by gender indicated that HIRfD was associated with decreased birth length (β = -0.17 cm, p = 0.041) in infant boys and HITDI was associated with decreased birth weight (β = -33.12 g, p = 0.036) and head circumference (β = -0.13 cm, p = 0.027) in girls. This is the first study on the cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposures in pregnant Chinese women. We found that the HI values of multiple phthalate co-exposure were sex-specifically related to birth outcomes.

  5. Progressive and cumulative fabric effects of multiple hydroentangling impacts at different water pressures on greige cotton substrate

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A practical study was conducted to determine the effects of the hydroentangling jet strip’s orifice size and the hydroentangling water pressure on the energy expended and the properties of the resulting nonwoven fabrics produced on a commercial-grade hydro-entanglement (HE) system, using greige cott...

  6. Labeling and Cumulative Disadvantage: The Impact of Formal Police Intervention on Life Chances and Crime during Emerging Adulthood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lopes, Giza; Krohn, Marvin D.; Lizotte, Alan J.; Schmidt, Nicole M.; Vasquez, Bob Edward; Bernburg, Jon Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    Research in labeling theory has been revived recently, particularly in relation to the effect of labeling on critical noncriminal outcomes that potentially exacerbate involvement in crime. This study partakes in that revitalization by examining direct and indirect effects of police intervention in the lives of adolescents who were followed into…

  7. Cumulative Risk, Maternal Responsiveness, and Allostatic Load among Young Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Gary W.; Kim, Pilyoung; Ting, Albert H.; Tesher, Harris B.; Shannis, Dana

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of cumulative risk exposure in concert with maternal responsiveness on physiological indicators of chronic stress in children and youth. Middle-school children exposed to greater accumulated psychosocial (e.g., family turmoil, poverty) and physical (e.g., crowding, substandard housing) risk…

  8. Cumulative lead exposure is associated with reduced olfactory recognition performance in elderly men: the Normative Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Grashow, Rachel; Sparrow, David; Hu, Howard; Weisskopf, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Olfactory dysfunction has been identified as an early warning sign for Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, dementia and more. A few occupational and environmental exposures have also been associated with reduced olfactory function, although the effects of long term environmental exposure to lead on olfactory dysfunction have not been explored. Here we performed olfactory recognition testing in elderly men in a community-dwelling cohort and examined the association with cumulative lead exposure, as assessed by lead in tibial and patellar bone. Methods Olfactory recognition was measured in 165 men from the Normative Aging Study (NAS) who had previously taken part in bone lead measurements using K-X-Ray fluorescence (KXRF). Olfactory recognition was measured using the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT). Associations between olfactory recognition, global cognition and cumulative lead exposure were estimated using linear regression, with additional adjustment for age, smoking, and functional polymorphism status for hemochromatosis (HFE), transferrin (TfC2), glutathione-s-transferase Pi1 (GSTP1) and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes. Sensitivity analyses explored olfactory recognition in men with high global cognitive function as measured using the Mini-Mental Status Exam (MMSE). Results The average age of the NAS participants at the time of olfactory recognition testing was 80.3 (standard deviation or SD = 5.7) years. Mean tibia lead was 16.3 (SD = 12.0) μg/g bone, mean patella lead was 22.4 (SD = 14.4) μg/g bone, and mean UPSIT score was 26.9 out of 40 (SD = 7.0). Consistent with previous findings, age at olfaction testing was negatively associated with UPSIT score. Tibia (but not patella) bone lead was negatively associated with olfaction recognition (per 15 μg/g tibia lead: β = −1.57; 95% CI: −2.93, −0.22; p = 0.02) in models adjusted for smoking and age. Additional adjustment for education did not

  9. Cumulative Carbon and Anthropocene Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, D.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Solomon, S.

    2010-12-01

    In this presentation we will highlight a few of the key findings of the recently completed National Research Council Study Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations and Impacts over Decades to Millennia (NRC, 2010), and discuss their implications for planetary stewardship. A synthesis of published results shows that the single number which most characterizes the magnitude of the human imprint on the climate of the coming millennia is the net amount of carbon released as CO2 by fossil fuel burning and land use changes during the time over which humanity continues such activities. Details of emissions scenarios are not important; rather it is the net carbon released by the time the emissions have been brought to essentially zero that controls long-term climate changes. In this report, we estimate that global temperatures increase by about 1 degree for approximately every 570 Pg of carbon emitted. Each degree of global temperature change is associated with quantifiable impacts on human and natural systems, including loss of arctic sea ice, decreased productivity of several major food crops, decreased precipitation in dry regions, and increases in area burnt by wildfire. Furthermore, the long timescale of temperature changes due to cumulative carbon emissions entails a lock-in to many centuries of continued sea-level rise, as well as the possibility of substantial contributions to sea-level rise from both Greenland and the West-Antarctic ice sheet. Reductions in methane or other short-lived greenhouse gas emissions can be of benefit in mitigating the near term climate changes, but CO2 is unique among major greenhouse gases in its ability to disrupt climate on multi-millennial time scales. This implies a need for correspondingly special treatment of this gas in emissions control protocols, for example by setting targets for allowable cumulative carbon emissions over time. The authoring committee was composed of Susan Solomon, Chair, David Battisti, Scott

  10. Cumulative impact of common genetic variants and other risk factors on colorectal cancer risk in 42,103 individuals

    PubMed Central

    Dunlop, Malcolm G.; Tenesa, Albert; Farrington, Susan M.; Ballereau, Stephane; Brewster, David H.; Pharoah, Paul DP.; Schafmayer, Clemens; Hampe, Jochen; Völzke, Henry; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael; Brenner, Hermann; von Holst, Susanna; Picelli, Simone; Lindblom, Annika; Jenkins, Mark A.; Hopper, John L.; Casey, Graham; Duggan, David; Newcomb, Polly; Abulí, Anna; Bessa, Xavier; Ruiz-Ponte, Clara; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Niittymäki, Iina; Tuupanen, Sari; Karhu, Auli; Aaltonen, Lauri; Zanke, Brent W.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Gallinger, Steven; Barclay, Ella; Martin, Lynn; Gorman, Maggie; Carvajal-Carmona, Luis; Walther, Axel; Kerr, David; Lubbe, Steven; Broderick, Peter; Chandler, Ian; Pittman, Alan; Penegar, Steven; Campbell, Harry; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data. Design Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks. Results Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk. Conclusion We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it

  11. UBIQUITOUS POLLUTANTS FROM CUMULATIVE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPS) as environmental pollutants is a multifaceted issue whose scope continues to become better delineated since the escalation of concerted attention beginning in the 1980s. PPCPs typically occur as trace environmental pollutants (primarily in surface but also in ground waters) as a result of their widespread, continuous, combined usage in a broad range of human and veterinary therapeutic activities and practices. With respect to the risk-assessment paradigm, the growing body of published work has focused primarily on the origin and occurrence of these substances. Comparatively less is known about human and ecological exposure, and even less about the known or even potential hazards associated with exposure to these anthropogenic substances, many of which are highly bioactive. The continually growing, worldwide importance of freshwater resources underscores the need for ensuring that any aggregate or cumulative impacts on water supplies and resultant potential for human or ecological exposure be minimized. This has prompted the more recent investigations on waste treatment processes for one of the major sources of environmental disposition, namely sewage. Despite the paucity of health effects data for long-term, simultaneous exposure to multiple xenobiotics (particularly PPCPS) at low doses (a major toxicological issue that can be described by the

  12. Environmentally-Relevant Mixtures in Cumulative Assessments: An Acute Study of Toxicokinetics and Effects on Motor Activity in Rats Exposed to a Mixture of Pyrethroids

    EPA Science Inventory

    Due to extensive use, human exposure to multiple pyrethroid insecticides occurs frequently. Studies of pyrethroid neurotoxicity suggest a common mode of toxicity and that pyrethroids should be considered cumulatively to model risk. The objective of this work was to use a pyrethro...

  13. Cumulative reaction probabilities and transition state properties: a study of the F + H2 reaction and its deuterated isotopic variants.

    PubMed

    Aoiz, F J; Herrero, V J; Sáez Rábanos, V

    2008-07-14

    A comparative quantum mechanical (QM) and quasiclassical trajectory (QCT) study of the cumulative reaction probabilities (CRPs) is presented in this work for the F + H(2) reaction and its isotopic variants for low values of the total angular momentum J. The agreement between the two sets of calculations is very good with the exception of some features whose origin is genuinely QM. The agreement also extends to the CRP resolved in the helicity quantum number k. The most remarkable feature is the steplike structure, which becomes clearly distinct when the CRPs are resolved in odd and even rotational states j. The analysis of these steps shows that each successive increment is due to the opening of the consecutive rovibrational states of the H(2) or D(2) molecule, which, in this case, nearly coincide with those of the transition state. Moreover, the height of each step reflects the number of helicity states compatible with a given J and j values, thus indicating that the various helicity states for a specific j have basically the same contribution to the CRPs at a given total energy. As a consequence, the dependence with k of the reactivity is practically negligible, suggesting very small steric restrictions for any possible orientation of the reactants. This behavior is in marked contrast to that found in the D + H(2) reaction, wherein a strong k dependence was found in the threshold and magnitude of the CRP. The advantages of a combined QCT and QM approaches to the study of CRPs are emphasized in this work.

  14. PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETICS/PHARMACODYNAMIC MODELING AND CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: CASE STUDY FOR THE N-METHYL CARBMATE PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 [PL 104-170: 110 STAT. 1513] requires EPA to consider potential cumulative human health risks resulting from aggregate exposure to pesticide chemicals acting through a common mechanism of toxicity. This includes all anticipated dietary e...

  15. Impact of a Ninth-Grade Transition Program on Cumulative GPAs and Credits, Ninth-Grade Dropout Rates, and Student Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buhrman, B. R.

    2010-01-01

    Concerned educators have been implementing ninth-grade transition programs to help freshmen adjust to the demands in high school and to reduce ninth-grade failure rates. The purpose of this quasi-experimental quantitative study was to investigate the impact of a ninth-grade transition program. The research questions addressed impact on cumulative…

  16. Deep Submarine Tailings Disposal (DSTP) the Proposed Use of Submarine Canyons and Artificial Turbidity Currents for the Disposal of Mine Waste: Current Practice, Future Plans, and Cumulative Impacts.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, R.; Moran, R.

    2015-12-01

    The wastes from mining operations ( tailings) have been disposed of in the fluvial environment (riverine disposal) and in nearshore marine environments for much of the last century. The scale of modern mining operations has led to increasing use of steep slopes and submarine canyons for deposition of these wastes at depths of 2000m - 4000m. Current mine disposal operations in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea which use Deep Sea Tailings Placement (DSTP) release volumes between 5000 tpd and 160,000 tpd. Planning is underway by the"Consortium," an industry and government group in Chile which would deposit mine waste of 1M tpd into the Humbolt Current Large Marine Ecosystem (HCLME) which provides nearly 20% of the fish biomass harvested on a sustainable basis worldwide. Underwater pipelines discharge tailings as a slurry to create a continuous artificial turbidity current with particle size distribtions (PSD's) ranging from sand to clay sized fractions. Potential problems arise from benthic smothering, angular particulate uptake by benthic organisms, and from the bioaccumulation of a complex of heavy metals by both benthic and pelagic species. While much is known about the binding of copper and other toxic heavy metals in a reducing environment, little has been done to consider the implications of ocean dumping where 1% of tailings discharged may consist of unrecovered heavy metals. Synergistic cumulative impacts to just the HCLME from the dumping of the more than 3M tpy of reactive metals in these tailings sediments remains unknown and poses substantial risks. DSTP assumes a stable deep sea depositional environment but upwelling currents and plume shear may make this hard to accomplish.

  17. Dose-Response Relationship between Cumulative Occupational Lead Exposure and the Associated Health Damages: A 20-Year Cohort Study of a Smelter in China

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yue; Gu, Jun-Ming; Huang, Yun; Duan, Yan-Ying; Huang, Rui-Xue; Hu, Jian-An

    2016-01-01

    Long-term airborne lead exposure, even below official occupational limits, has been found to cause lead poisoning at higher frequencies than expected, which suggests that China’s existing occupational exposure limits should be reexamined. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1832 smelting workers from 1988 to 2008 in China. These were individuals who entered the plant and came into continuous contact with lead at work for longer than 3 months. The dose-response relationship between occupational cumulative lead exposure and lead poisoning, abnormal blood lead, urinary lead and erythrocyte zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) were analyzed and the benchmark dose lower bound confidence limits (BMDLs) were calculated. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between cumulative lead dust and lead fumes exposures and workplace seniority, blood lead, urinary lead and ZPP values. A dose-response relationship was observed between cumulative lead dust or lead fumes exposure and lead poisoning (p < 0.01). The BMDLs of the cumulative occupational lead dust and fumes doses were 0.68 mg-year/m3 and 0.30 mg-year/m3 for lead poisoning, respectively. The BMDLs of workplace airborne lead concentrations associated with lead poisoning were 0.02 mg/m3 and 0.01 mg/m3 for occupational exposure lead dust and lead fume, respectively. In conclusion, BMDLs for airborne lead were lower than occupational exposure limits, suggesting that the occupational lead exposure limits need re-examination and adjustment. Occupational cumulative exposure limits (OCELs) should be established to better prevent occupational lead poisoning. PMID:26999177

  18. Dose-Response Relationship between Cumulative Occupational Lead Exposure and the Associated Health Damages: A 20-Year Cohort Study of a Smelter in China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yue; Gu, Jun-Ming; Huang, Yun; Duan, Yan-Ying; Huang, Rui-Xue; Hu, Jian-An

    2016-03-16

    Long-term airborne lead exposure, even below official occupational limits, has been found to cause lead poisoning at higher frequencies than expected, which suggests that China's existing occupational exposure limits should be reexamined. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1832 smelting workers from 1988 to 2008 in China. These were individuals who entered the plant and came into continuous contact with lead at work for longer than 3 months. The dose-response relationship between occupational cumulative lead exposure and lead poisoning, abnormal blood lead, urinary lead and erythrocyte zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) were analyzed and the benchmark dose lower bound confidence limits (BMDLs) were calculated. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between cumulative lead dust and lead fumes exposures and workplace seniority, blood lead, urinary lead and ZPP values. A dose-response relationship was observed between cumulative lead dust or lead fumes exposure and lead poisoning (p < 0.01). The BMDLs of the cumulative occupational lead dust and fumes doses were 0.68 mg-year/m³ and 0.30 mg-year/m³ for lead poisoning, respectively. The BMDLs of workplace airborne lead concentrations associated with lead poisoning were 0.02 mg/m³ and 0.01 mg/m³ for occupational exposure lead dust and lead fume, respectively. In conclusion, BMDLs for airborne lead were lower than occupational exposure limits, suggesting that the occupational lead exposure limits need re-examination and adjustment. Occupational cumulative exposure limits (OCELs) should be established to better prevent occupational lead poisoning.

  19. Cumulative health risk assessment of co-occurring mycotoxins of deoxynivalenol and its acetyl derivatives in wheat and maize: case study, Shanghai, China.

    PubMed

    Han, Zheng; Nie, Dongxia; Ediage, Emmanuel Njumbe; Yang, Xianli; Wang, Jianhua; Chen, Bo; Li, Shuguang; On, Stephen L W; De Saeger, Sarah; Wu, Aibo

    2014-12-01

    Humans are naturally and frequently exposed to a multitude of mycotoxins, but health risk assessments are usually performed on individual mycotoxins, which may underestimate the total risks. In this study, we assessed for the first time the cumulative health risks of concomitant exposure via dietary intake (DI) to multiple mycotoxins, namely deoxynivalenol (DON) and its acetyl derivatives of 3-acetyldeoxynivalenol (3-ADON) and 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol (15-ADON), based on the concentration addition (CA) concept. A cross-sectional study was conducted in seven districts in Shanghai, China with 1269 participants and 330 wheat and maize samples analyzed. After probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, the results showed no health risks to the population in Shanghai considering individual mycotoxins. However, if the cumulative health risks were calculated based on the combined consideration of DON with either 3-ADON or 15-ADON or both, the DI values in 95th percentile were up to 1087 ng/kg body weight/day, exceeding the Provisional Maximum Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTDI) of 1000 ng/kg body weight/day and hence representing potential health risks to the population in Shanghai. The integrated study proposed here could be a model strategy for cumulative health risk assessment on the co-occurring hazards in the fields of food safety combined with environmental contaminants.

  20. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  1. An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: the impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia.

    PubMed

    Strimbu, Bogdan; Innes, John

    2011-07-01

    The combined influence on the environment of all projects occurring in a single area is evaluated through cumulative impact assessments (CIA), which consider the consequences of multiple projects, each insignificant on its own, yet important when evaluated collectively. Traditionally, future human activities are included in CIA using an analytical platform, commonly based on complex models that supply precise predictions but with reduced accuracy. To compensate for the lack of accuracy in current CIA approaches, we propose a shift in the paradigm governing CIA. The paradigm shift involves a change in the focus of CIA investigations from the detailed analysis of one unlikely future to the identification of the patterns describing multiple potential future changes in the environment. To illustrate the approach, a set of 144 possible and equally likely futures were developed that aimed to identify the potential impacts of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on the habitat suitability of moose and marten in northeast British Columbia, Canada. The evolution of two measures of habitat suitability (average habitat suitability index and surface of the stands with habitat suitability index >0.5) revealed that the human activities could induce cycles in the habitat dynamics of moose and marten. The planning period of 100 years was separated into three distinct periods following a sinusoidal pattern (i.e., increase - constant - decrease in the habitat suitability measures). The attributes that could induce significant changes in the assessment of environment are the choice of harvesting age and species.

  2. Evaluating cumulative effects of disturbance on the hydrologic function of bogs, fens, and mires

    SciTech Connect

    Siegel, D.I.

    1988-01-01

    Few quantitative studies have been done on the hydrology of fens, bogs, and mires and, consequently, any predictions of the cumulative impacts of disturbances on their hydrologic functions is extremely difficult. Bogs and fens are, in a sense, hydrobiologic systems, and any evaluation of cumulative impacts on them will have to consider the complicated interactions, barely understood, among the wetland hydrology, water chemistry, and biota, and place the effect of individual wetland impacts within the context of the cumulative impacts contributed to the watershed from other geomorphic areas and land uses. It is difficult to evaluate the potential cumulative impacts on wetland hydrology because geologic settings of wetlands are often complex and the methods used to measure wetland stream flow, ground-water flow, and evapotranspiration are inexact. Their very scale makes it difficult to quantify the hydrologic function accurately. The paper reviews current understanding of the hydrologic function of bogs, fens, and mires at different scales and in different physiographic settings, and presents hypotheses on potential cumulative impacts on the hydrologic function that might occur with multiple disturbances.

  3. Economic impacts study

    SciTech Connect

    Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

    1988-09-30

    This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

  4. Aircraft community noise impact studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The objectives of the study are to: (1) conduct a program to determine the community noise impact of advanced technology engines when installed in a supersonic aircraft, (2) determine the potential reduction of community noise by flight operational techniques for the study aircraft, (3) estimate the community noise impact of the study aircraft powered by suppressed turbojet engines and by advanced duct heating turbofan engines, and (4) compare the impact of the two supersonic designs with that of conventional commercial DC-8 aircraft.

  5. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  6. Cumulative Timers for Microprocessors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Battle, John O.

    2007-01-01

    It has been proposed to equip future microprocessors with electronic cumulative timers, for essentially the same reasons for which land vehicles are equipped with odometers (total-distance-traveled meters) and aircraft are equipped with Hobbs meters (total-engine-operating time meters). Heretofore, there has been no way to determine the amount of use to which a microprocessor (or a product containing a microprocessor) has been subjected. The proposed timers would count all microprocessor clock cycles and could only be read by means of microprocessor instructions but, like odometers and Hobbs meters, could never be reset to zero without physically damaging the chip.

  7. A Longitudinal Analysis of Cumulative Risks, Cumulative Promotive Factors, and Adolescent Violent Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoddard, Sarah A.; Zimmerman, Marc A.; Bauermeister, Jose A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the effects of cumulative risk and promotive factors on violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of predominately African American urban adolescents (N = 750). Cumulative risk and promotive factor indices represented individual characteristics, and peer, parental, and familial influences. Using…

  8. [Reconstruction of urban land space based on minimum cumulative resistance model: a case study of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City].

    PubMed

    Zhong, Shi-Yu; Wu, Qing; Li, Yu; Cheng, Jin-Ping

    2012-11-01

    Based on the source-sink landscape theory and the principles of ecosystem services, the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was modified, where the urban center construction land was taken as the expansion source, and the contribution rate of ecological land ecosystem services value was considered as the resistance coefficient. With the modified MCR, the urban spatial expansion process of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City was successfully simulated, and, based on the protection of ecological security pattern, the optimum path for reconstructing urban land space was put forward. The simulated urban spatial expansion short path in 1988-2008 was in accordance with the real situation. By the modified MCR, the urban space was divided into four zones of high, higher, medium, and low resistance, with the area of 80.84, 78.90, 24.26, and 61.88 km2, respectively. The expansion path of the urban space was along the route from low to medium and then to high resistance zones successively. The land suitable for eco-protection and construction had an area of 159.74 km2 and 86.14 km2, while the ecological conflict area (17.37 km2) was mainly located in higher and high resistance zones, being 10.38 and 6.99 km2, respectively. The modified MCR could not only effectively reflect the distribution area of urban land use and the conflict relationship between urban construction and ecological protection, but also reasonably judge the best developmental short path for urban spatial expansion.

  9. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  10. In-vivo measurements of Pb-210 to determine cumulative exposure to radon daughters: A pilot study. Final report, 1 March, 1990--May 31, 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Laurer, G.R.; Cohen, N.; Stark, A.; Ju, C.

    1991-05-01

    The objective of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of estimating cumulative exposure of individuals to low concentrations of radon by measuring the amount of Pb-A-10 in their skeletons. This report presents progress to date establishing the validity of an vivo technique to measure skeletal burdens of Pb-210, accumulated from exposure to radon and radon progeny. With the skeletal content of Pb--210 and a model for Pb metabolism, cumulative exposure to radon and its short-lived daughters (radon/daughters) may be calculated for use in deriving a dose-response relationship between lung cancer and exposure to radon/daughters. Data are presented for 29 subjects exposed to ``above-average`` radon concentrations in their homes, showing the correlation between measured Pb--210 burdens, and measured pCi/l and WLM exposure estimates. Their results are compared to measurements of a population of 24 subject`s presumed exposed to average concentrations. Measurements of a Pennsylvania family exposed for a year in a home with an extremely high radon content are also presented. Update of results of an ongoing study of the biological half-time of Pb--210 in man involving measurements, of a retired radiation worker with a 40 year old skeletal burden of Pb-210.

  11. Cumulative Risk of Colon Cancer up to Age 70 Years by Risk Factor Status Using Data From the Nurses’ Health Study

    PubMed Central

    Colditz, Graham A.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Fuchs, Charles S.; Rosner, Bernard A.

    2009-01-01

    The authors developed a comprehensive model of colon cancer incidence that allows for nonproportional hazards and accounts for the temporal nature of risk factors. They estimated relative risk based on cumulative incidence of colon cancer by age 70 years. Using multivariate, nonlinear Poisson regression, they determined colon cancer risk among 83,767 participants in the Nurses’ Health Study. The authors observed 701 cases of colon cancer between 1980 and June 1, 2004. There was increased risk for a positive family history of colon or rectal cancer (55%), 10 or more pack-years of cigarette smoking before age 30 years (16%), and tallness (67 inches (170 cm) vs. 61 inches (155 cm): 19%). Reduced risk was observed for current postmenopausal hormone use (−23%), being physically active (21 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/week vs. 2 MET-hours/week: −49%), taking aspirin (7 tablets/week vs. none: −29%), and being screened (−24%). Women who smoked, had a consistently high relative weight, had a low physical activity level, consumed red or processed meat daily, were never screened, and consumed low daily amounts of folate had almost a 4-fold higher cumulative risk of colon cancer by age 70 years. For women with a high risk factor profile, adopting a healthier lifestyle could dramatically reduce colon cancer risk. PMID:19723749

  12. [Antimicrobial susceptibility cumulative reports].

    PubMed

    Canut-Blasco, Andrés; Calvo, Jorge; Rodríguez-Díaz, Juan Carlos; Martínez-Martínez, Luis

    2016-10-01

    Cumulative reports on antimicrobial susceptibility tests data are important for selecting empirical treatments, as an educational tool in programs on antimicrobial use, and for establishing breakpoints defining clinical categories. These reports should be based on data validated by clinical microbiologists using diagnostic samples (not surveillance samples). In order to avoid a bias derived from including several isolates obtained from the same patient, it is recommended that, for a defined period, only the first isolate is counted. A minimal number of isolates per species should be presented: a figure of >=30 isolates is statistically acceptable. The report is usually presented in a table format where, for each cell, information on clinically relevant microorganisms-antimicrobial agents is presented. Depending on particular needs, multiple tables showing data related to patients, samples, services or special pathogens can be prepared.

  13. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  14. The differential impacts of episodic, chronic, and cumulative physical bullying and cyberbullying: the effects of victimization on the school experiences, social support, and mental health of rural adolescents.

    PubMed

    Smokowski, Paul R; Evans, Caroline B R; Cotter, Katie L

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have examined the impacts of past, current, and chronic physical bullying and cyberbullying on youth, especially in rural settings. This study augments this scant literature by exploring the school experiences, social support, and mental health outcomes for rural, middle school youth. The participants for this 2-year longitudinal study were 3,127 youth from 28 middle schools. Participants were classified as nonvictims, past victims (i.e., victimized during Year 1 but not Year 2), current victims (i.e., victimized during Year 2 but not Year 1), and chronic victims (i.e., victimized during both Year 1 and Year 2). Findings illustrated that chronic victimization resulted in the lowest levels of school satisfaction, social support, future optimism, and self-esteem. Chronic victims also reported the highest levels of school hassles, perceived discrimination, peer rejection, anxiety, depression, and externalizing behaviors. In terms of episodic victimization, current year victimization was associated with worse outcomes than past year victimization. Implications and limitations were discussed.

  15. Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study

    PubMed Central

    Lawrance, Richard A; Dorsch, Micha F; Sapsford, Robert J; Mackintosh, Alan F; Greenwood, Darren C; Jackson, Beryl M; Morrell, Christine; Robinson, Michael B; Hall, Alistair S

    2001-01-01

    Objectives Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Design Observational study. Setting 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. Participants All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Main outcome measures Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. Results The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of −4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Conclusions Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction. What is already known on this topicThe national service framework for coronary artery disease requires minimal standards of care and audit of patients with acute myocardial infarction but does not integrate clinical status into the audit toolPredictive models using only a few

  16. The U.S. Forest Service's analysis of cumulative effects to wildlife: A study of legal standards, current practice, and ongoing challenges on a National Forest

    SciTech Connect

    Schultz, Courtney A.

    2012-01-15

    Cumulative effects analysis (CEA) allows natural resource managers to understand the status of resources in historical context, learn from past management actions, and adapt future activities accordingly. U.S. federal agencies are required to complete CEA as part of environmental impact assessment under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Past research on CEA as part of NEPA has identified significant deficiencies in CEA practice, suggested methodologies for handling difficult aspects of CEA, and analyzed the rise in litigation over CEA in U.S. courts. This article provides a review of the literature and legal standards related to CEA as it is done under NEPA and then examines current practice on a U.S. National Forest, utilizing qualitative methods in order to provide a detailed understanding of current approaches to CEA. Research objectives were to understand current practice, investigate ongoing challenges, and identify impediments to improvement. Methods included a systematic review of a set of NEPA documents and semi-structured interviews with practitioners, scientists, and members of the public. Findings indicate that the primary challenges associated with CEA include: issues of both geographic and temporal scale of analysis, confusion over the purpose of the requirement, the lack of monitoring data, and problems coordinating and disseminating data. Improved monitoring strategies and programmatic analyses could support improved CEA practice.

  17. Relationship Risks in Context: A Cumulative Risk Approach to Understanding Relationship Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauer, Amy J.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Garvan, Cynthia W.; Hou, Wei

    2008-01-01

    Risks associated with less satisfying intimate relationships often co-occur within individuals, raising questions about approaches that consider only their independent impact. Utilizing the "cumulative risk model," which acknowledges the natural covariation of risk factors, this study examined individuals in intimate relationships using…

  18. The Cumulative Burden Borne by Offspring Whose Mothers Were Sexually Abused as Children: Descriptive Results from a Multigenerational Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Noll, Jennie G.; Trickett, Penelope K.; Harris, William W.; Putnam, Frank W.

    2009-01-01

    This multigenerational study empirically demonstrates the extent to which offspring whose parents experienced childhood abuse are at increased risk of being abused or neglected. Females with substantiated childhood sexual abuse and nonabused comparison females were assessed at six points spanning 18 years in a prospective, longitudinal study.…

  19. Assessing the cumulative impacts of surface mining and coal bed methane development on shallow aquifers in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

    SciTech Connect

    Peacock, K.

    1997-12-31

    Large scale surface coal mining taken place along the cropline of the Wyodak-Anderson coal seam since approximately 1977. Groundwater impacts due to surface mining of coal and other energy-related development is a primary regulatory concern and an identified Office of Surface Mining deficiency in the Wyoming coal program. The modeled aquifers are the upper unit (coal) of the Paleocene Fort Union Formation and the overlying Eocene Wasatch Formation. A regional groundwater model covering 790 square miles was constructed using MODFLOW, to simulate the impacts from three surface coal mines and coal bed methane development occurring downdip. Assessing anisotropy of the coal aquifer, quality checking of in situ aquifer tests and database quality control were precursors to modelling. Geologic data was kriged to develop the structural model of the aquifers. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was utilized to facilitate storage, analysis, display, development of input modelling arrays and assessment of hydrologic boundaries. Model output presents the predicted impacts of likely development scenarios, including impacts from coal bed methane development and surface coal mining through anticipated life of mining, and surface mining impacts independent of gas development.

  20. Improved Cumulative Survival in Fistulas Requiring Surgical Interventions to Promote Fistula Maturation Compared to Endovascular Interventions

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Timmy; Tindni, Arshdeep; Roy-Chaudhury, Prabir

    2014-01-01

    Due to high non-maturation rates, arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) frequently require intervention(s) to promote maturation. Endovascular or surgical interventions are often undertaken to salvage non-maturing AVFs. The objective of this study was to compare the impact of surgical versus endovascular interventions to promote AVF maturation on cumulative AVF survival. We evaluated 89 patients with new AVF placement from a Veterans Affairs population over a 5-year period. Of these, 46 (52%) required intervention(s) to achieve successful maturation for dialysis. 31 patients had surgical revisions and 15 patients had endovascular repairs. We compared cumulative survival between AVFs requiring no intervention, surgical revision, and endovascular intervention to promote AVF maturation. Cumulative survival was longer in AVFs receiving surgical intervention compared to angioplasty to promote AVF maturation (p=0.05). One year cumulative survival was 86% vs 83% vs 40% for no intervention vs. surgery vs. angioplasty, respectively. In AVFs that required interventions to promote maturation, AVFs with surgical intervention had longer cumulative survival compared to those AVFs with endovascular intervention. AVFs with surgical intervention to promote maturation had similar one-year cumulative survival to those AVFs that did not require intervention to promote maturation. PMID:22404567

  1. Improved cumulative survival in fistulas requiring surgical interventions to promote fistula maturation compared with endovascular interventions.

    PubMed

    Lee, Timmy; Tindni, Arshdeep; Roy-Chaudhury, Prabir

    2013-01-01

    Due to high nonmaturation rates, arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) frequently require intervention(s) to promote maturation. Endovascular or surgical interventions are often undertaken to salvage nonmaturing AVFs. The objective of this study was to compare the impact of surgical versus endovascular interventions to promote AVF maturation on cumulative AVF survival. We evaluated 89 patients with new AVF placement from a Veterans Affairs population over a 5-year period. Of these, 46 (52%) required intervention(s) to achieve successful maturation for dialysis: 31 patients had surgical revisions and 15 patients had endovascular repairs. We compared cumulative survival between AVFs requiring no intervention, surgical revision, and endovascular intervention to promote AVF maturation. Cumulative survival was longer in AVFs receiving surgical intervention compared with angioplasty to promote AVF maturation (p = 0.05). One-year cumulative survival was 86% vs. 83% vs. 40% for no intervention vs. surgery vs. angioplasty, respectively. In AVFs that required interventions to promote maturation, AVFs with surgical intervention had longer cumulative survival compared with those AVFs with endovascular intervention. AVFs with surgical intervention to promote maturation had similar 1-year cumulative survival to those AVFs that did not require intervention to promote maturation.

  2. Algorithm Calculates Cumulative Poisson Distribution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Nolty, Robert C.; Scheuer, Ernest M.

    1992-01-01

    Algorithm calculates accurate values of cumulative Poisson distribution under conditions where other algorithms fail because numbers are so small (underflow) or so large (overflow) that computer cannot process them. Factors inserted temporarily to prevent underflow and overflow. Implemented in CUMPOIS computer program described in "Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program" (NPO-17714).

  3. Comparing center-specific cumulative incidence functions.

    PubMed

    Fan, Ludi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2016-01-01

    The competing risks data structure arises frequently in clinical and epidemiologic studies. In such settings, the cumulative incidence function is often used to describe the ultimate occurrence of a particular cause of interest. If the objective of the analysis is to compare subgroups of patients with respect to cumulative incidence, imbalance with respect to group-specific covariate distributions must generally be factored out, particularly in observational studies. This report proposes a measure to contrast center- (or, more generally group-) specific cumulative incidence functions (CIF). One such application involves evaluating organ procurement organizations with respect to the cumulative incidence of kidney transplantation. In this case, the competing risks include (i) death on the wait-list and (ii) removal from the wait-list. The proposed method assumes proportional cause-specific hazards, which are estimated through Cox models stratified by center. The proposed center effect measure compares the average CIF for a given center to the average CIF that would have resulted if that particular center had covariate pattern-specific cumulative incidence equal to that of the national average. We apply the proposed methods to data obtained from a national organ transplant registry.

  4. Use of a Cumulative Exposure Index to Estimate the Impact of Tap Water Lead Concentration on Blood Lead Levels in 1- to 5-Year-Old Children (Montréal, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    Ngueta, Gerard; Abdous, Belkacem; Tardif, Robert; St-Laurent, Julie; Levallois, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Background Drinking water is recognized as a source of lead (Pb) exposure. However, questions remain about the impact of chronic exposure to lead-contaminated water on internal dose. Objective Our goal was to estimate the relation between a cumulative water Pb exposure index (CWLEI) and blood Pb levels (BPb) in children 1–5 years of ages. Methods Between 10 September 2009 and 27 March 2010, individual characteristics and water consumption data were obtained from 298 children. Venous blood samples were collected (one per child) and a total of five 1-L samples of water per home were drawn from the kitchen tap. A second round of water collection was performed between 22 June 2011 and 6 September 2011 on a subsample of houses. Pb analyses used inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. Multiple linear regressions were used to estimate the association between CWLEI and BPb. Results Each 1-unit increase in CWLEI multiplies the expected value of BPb by 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.15) after adjustment for confounders. Mean BPb was significantly higher in children in the upper third and fourth quartiles of CWLEI (0.7–1.9 and ≥ 1.9 μg/kg of body weight) compared with the first (< 0.2 μg/kg) after adjusting for confounders (19%; 95% CI: 0, 42% and 39%; 95% CI: 15, 67%, respectively). The trends analysis yielded a p-value < 0.0001 after adjusting for confounders suggesting a dose–response relationship between percentiles of CWLEI and BPb. Conclusions In children 1–5 years of age, BPb was significantly associated with water lead concentration with an increase starting at a cumulative lead exposure of ≥ 0.7 μg Pb/kg of body weight. In this age group, an increase of 1 μg/L in water lead would result in an increase of 35% of BPb after 150 days of exposure. Citation Ngueta G, Abdous B, Tardif R, St-Laurent J, Levallois P. 2016. Use of a cumulative exposure index to estimate the impact of tap water lead concentration on blood lead levels in 1- to 5-year-old children

  5. Ethnography's Capacity to Contribute to the Cumulation of Theory: A Case Study of Differentiation-Polarisation Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hillyard, Sam

    2010-01-01

    The paper sets out to examine the role that ethnographic work can and should play in the development of sociological theory, focusing on the case study of differentiation-polarisation theory. It provides a detailed discussion of the work of Hargreaves (1967), Lacey (1970) and Ball (1981) and assesses the degree to which their work was ethnographic…

  6. Feasibility Study for Evaluating Cumulative Exposure of Downstream Migrant Juvenile Salmonids to Total Dissolved Gas. Final Report 1996.

    SciTech Connect

    Abernethy, C.Scott; Dauble, Dennis D.; Johnson, Robert L.

    1997-11-01

    A feasibility study was initiated to determine if downstream migrant salmonids could be monitored to determine potential relationships between total dissolved gas (TDG) exposure and signs of gas bubble trauma (GBT). The primary objectives were to: (1) establish logistical requirements for in-river monitoring of TDG exposure, including net pen design, deployment, and navigation constraints; (2) resolve uncertainties associated with effects of the net pen on fish behavior; (3) test the accuracy and precision of in-river monitoring equipment used to measure fish distribution and water quality; and (4) determine the application of hydrologic/flow models to predictions of TDG exposure. In-river measurements included water velocity, boat position, and selected water quality parameters (temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, depth, conductivity). Fish distribution within the net pen was monitored using scanning sonar, and a split-beam echo sounder was used to evaluate vertical distribution of fish m in the river adjacent to the net pen. Three test drifts were conducted from late July through late August. The studies demonstrated that it was feasible to assemble and deploy a large net pen for mobile monitoring of TDG exposure. Accurate monitoring of vertical and lateral distribution of smolts was performed, and diel differences in behavior were documented. Further, the fish sounded in response to researcher activity on the perimeter platform. Thus, in-transit monitoring for GBT or mortality would affect fish depth distribution and exposure to TDG. Principal recommendations for future studies are directed at improving maneuverability of the net pen in adverse weather conditions and applying new acoustics technology to simultaneously collect fish distribution data from within and outside of the pen. 6 refs., 17 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bandura, Albert; And Others

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

  8. Bone Mineral Density as a Marker of Cumulative Estrogen Exposure in Psychotic Disorder: A 3 Year Follow-Up Study

    PubMed Central

    van der Leeuw, Christine; Peeters, Sanne; Domen, Patrick; van Kroonenburgh, Marinus; van Os, Jim; Marcelis, Machteld

    2015-01-01

    Altered estrogen-induced neuroprotection has been implicated in the etiology of psychotic disorders. Using bone mineral density as a marker of lifetime estrogen exposure, a longitudinal family study was conducted to discriminate between etiological mechanisms and secondary effects of disease and treatment. Dual X-ray absorptiometry scans were acquired twice, with an interval of 3 years, in 30 patients with psychotic disorder (male (M)/female (F): 24/6, mean age of 32 years at second measurement), 44 non-psychotic siblings of patients with a psychotic disorder (M/F: 26/18, mean age 32) and 27 controls (M/F: 7/20, mean age 35). Total bone mineral density, Z-scores and T-scores were measured in the lumbar spine and proximal femur. Associations between group and bone mineral density changes were investigated with multilevel random regression analyses. The effect of prolactin-raising antipsychotic medication was evaluated. (Increased risk of) psychotic disorder was not associated with disproportionate bone mineral density loss over a three year period. Instead, femoral bone mineral density measures appeared to decrease less in the patient versus control comparison (total BMD: B = 0.026, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.050, p = 0.037; Z-score: B = 0.224, 95% CI 0.035 to 0.412, p = 0.020; and T-score: B = 0.193, 95% CI 0.003 to 0.382, p = 0.046). Current or past use of a prolactin-raising antipsychotic medication was not associated with bone mineral density changes. In this small longitudinal study, there was no evidence of ongoing estrogen deficiency in psychotic disorder as there was no excessive loss of bone mineral density over a 3-year period in patients using antipsychotic medication. PMID:26309037

  9. Investigation of practical approaches to evaluating cumulative dose for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) from standard CT dosimetry measurements: a Monte Carlo study.

    PubMed

    Abuhaimed, Abdullah; Martin, Colin J; Sankaralingam, Marimuthu; Gentle, David J

    2015-07-21

    A function called Gx(L) was introduced by the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) Report-87 to facilitate measurement of cumulative dose for CT scans within long phantoms as recommended by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) TG-111. The Gx(L) function is equal to the ratio of the cumulative dose at the middle of a CT scan to the volume weighted CTDI (CTDIvol), and was investigated for conventional multi-slice CT scanners operating with a moving table. As the stationary table mode, which is the basis for cone beam CT (CBCT) scans, differs from that used for conventional CT scans, the aim of this study was to investigate the extension of the Gx(L) function to CBCT scans. An On-Board Imager (OBI) system integrated with a TrueBeam linac was simulated with Monte Carlo EGSnrc/BEAMnrc, and the absorbed dose was calculated within PMMA, polyethylene (PE), and water head and body phantoms using EGSnrc/DOSXYZnrc, where the body PE body phantom emulated the ICRU/AAPM phantom. Beams of width 40-500 mm and beam qualities at tube potentials of 80-140 kV were studied. Application of a modified function of beam width (W) termed Gx(W), for which the cumulative dose for CBCT scans f (0) is normalized to the weighted CTDI (CTDIw) for a reference beam of width 40 mm, was investigated as a possible option. However, differences were found in Gx(W) with tube potential, especially for body phantoms, and these were considered to be due to differences in geometry between wide beams used for CBCT scans and those for conventional CT. Therefore, a modified function Gx(W)100 has been proposed, taking the form of values of f (0) at each position in a long phantom, normalized with respect to dose indices f 100(150)x measured with a 100 mm pencil ionization chamber within standard 150 mm PMMA phantoms, using the same scanning parameters, beam widths and positions within the phantom. f 100(150)x averages the dose resulting from

  10. Investigation of practical approaches to evaluating cumulative dose for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) from standard CT dosimetry measurements: a Monte Carlo study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abuhaimed, Abdullah; Martin, Colin J.; Sankaralingam, Marimuthu; Gentle, David J.

    2015-07-01

    A function called Gx(L) was introduced by the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) Report-87 to facilitate measurement of cumulative dose for CT scans within long phantoms as recommended by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) TG-111. The Gx(L) function is equal to the ratio of the cumulative dose at the middle of a CT scan to the volume weighted CTDI (CTDIvol), and was investigated for conventional multi-slice CT scanners operating with a moving table. As the stationary table mode, which is the basis for cone beam CT (CBCT) scans, differs from that used for conventional CT scans, the aim of this study was to investigate the extension of the Gx(L) function to CBCT scans. An On-Board Imager (OBI) system integrated with a TrueBeam linac was simulated with Monte Carlo EGSnrc/BEAMnrc, and the absorbed dose was calculated within PMMA, polyethylene (PE), and water head and body phantoms using EGSnrc/DOSXYZnrc, where the body PE body phantom emulated the ICRU/AAPM phantom. Beams of width 40-500 mm and beam qualities at tube potentials of 80-140 kV were studied. Application of a modified function of beam width (W) termed Gx(W), for which the cumulative dose for CBCT scans f (0) is normalized to the weighted CTDI (CTDIw) for a reference beam of width 40 mm, was investigated as a possible option. However, differences were found in Gx(W) with tube potential, especially for body phantoms, and these were considered to be due to differences in geometry between wide beams used for CBCT scans and those for conventional CT. Therefore, a modified function Gx(W)100 has been proposed, taking the form of values of f (0) at each position in a long phantom, normalized with respect to dose indices f 100(150)x measured with a 100 mm pencil ionization chamber within standard 150 mm PMMA phantoms, using the same scanning parameters, beam widths and positions within the phantom. f 100(150)x averages the dose resulting from

  11. Cumulants of Hawkes point processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jovanović, Stojan; Hertz, John; Rotter, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such processes. To do this, we represent the Hawkes process in terms of a Poisson cluster process and show how the cumulant density formulas can be derived by enumerating all possible "family trees," representing complex interactions between point events. We also consider the problem of computing the integrated cumulants, characterizing the average measure of correlated activity between events of different types, and derive the relevant equations.

  12. Origin of 78235, a lunar norite cumulate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winzer, S. R.; Nava, D. F.; Lum, R. K. L.; Schuhmann, S.; Schuhmann, P.; Philpotts, J. A.

    1975-01-01

    A chemical and petrographic study is reported of the phases from the rock 78235 which was returned on the Apollo 17 mission. Petrographic analysis of the thin sections from the bounder confirm its cumulate origin. In order to develop further the crystallization history for 78235, its subsequent shock history, and its relationship to other lunar crustal rocks, orthopyroxene, plagioclase, glass, and whole-rock samples were prepared and analyzed for major, minor, and trace elements. It is speculated that an early fractional crystallization event producing a layer of orthopyroxene-plagioclase cumulate with varying amounts of trapped liquid took place within 20 km of the surface of the moon.

  13. Cumulative Effect and Predictive Value of Genetic Variants Associated with Type 2 Diabetes in Han Chinese: A Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Yun; Lu, Feng; Dong, Meihua; Lin, Yudi; Li, Huizhang; Dai, Juncheng; Jin, Guangfu; Hu, Zhibin; Shen, Hongbing

    2015-01-01

    Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified dozens of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with type 2 diabetes risk. We have previously confirmed the associations of genetic variants in HHEX, CDKAL1, VEGFA and FTO with type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese. However, the cumulative effect and predictive value of these GWAS identified SNPs on the risk of type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese are largely unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a two-stage case-control study consisting of 2,925 cases and 3,281controls to examine the association of 30 SNPs identified by GWAS with type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese. Significant associations were found for proxy SNPs at KCNQ1 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.41, P = 9.91 × 10–16 for rs2237897], CDKN2A/CDKN2B (OR = 1.30, P = 1.34 × 10–10 for rs10811661), CENTD2 (OR = 1.28, P = 9.88 × 10-4 for rs1552224) and SLC30A8 (OR = 1.19, P = 1.43 × 10-5 for rs13266634). We further evaluated the cumulative effect on type 2 diabetes of these 4 SNPs, in combination with 5 SNPs at HHEX, CDKAL1, VEGFA and FTO reported previously. Individuals carrying 12 or more risk alleles had a nearly 4-fold increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes compared with those carrying less than 6 risk alleles [adjusted OR = 3.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.76–4.91]. Adding the genetic factors to clinical factors slightly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increasing from 0.76 to 0.78. However, the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusions/Significance We confirmed associations of SNPs in KCNQ1, CDKN2A/CDKN2B, CENTD2 and SLC30A8 with type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese. The utilization of genetic information may improve the accuracy of risk prediction in combination with clinical characteristics for type 2 diabetes. PMID:25587982

  14. Using Exposomics to Assess Cumulative Risks and Promote Health

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Martyn T.; de la Rosa, Rosemarie; Daniels, Sarah I.

    2015-01-01

    Under the exposome paradigm all non-genetic factors contributing to disease are considered to be ‘environmental’ including chemicals, drugs, infectious agents and psycho-social stress. We can consider these collectively as environmental stressors. Exposomics is the comprehensive analysis of exposure to all environmental stressors and should yield a more thorough understanding of chronic disease development. We can operationalize exposomics by studying all the small molecules in the body and their influence on biological pathways that lead to impaired health. Here, we describe methods by which this may be achieved and discuss the application of exposomics to cumulative risk assessment in vulnerable populations. Since the goal of cumulative risk assessment is to analyze, characterize, and quantify the combined risks to health from exposures to multiple agents or stressors, it seems that exposomics is perfectly poised to advance this important area of environmental health science. We should therefore support development of tools for exposomic analysis and begin to engage impacted communities in participatory exposome research. A first step may be to apply exposomics to vulnerable populations already studied by more conventional cumulative risk approaches. We further propose that recent migrants, low socioeconomic groups with high environmental chemical exposures, and pregnant women should be high priority populations for study by exposomics. Moreover, exposomics allows us to study interactions between chronic stress and environmental chemicals that disrupt stress response pathways (i.e. ‘stressogens’). Exploring the impact of early life exposures and maternal stress may be an interesting and accessible topic for investigation by exposomics using biobanked samples. PMID:26475350

  15. Timing of increased autistic disorder cumulative incidence.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Michael E; Paul, John F

    2010-03-15

    Autistic disorder (AD) is a severe neurodevelopmental disorder typically identified in early childhood. Both genetic and environmental factors are implicated in its etiology. The number of individuals identified as having autism has increased dramatically in recent years, but whether some proportion of this increase is real is unknown. If real, susceptible populations may have exposure to controllable exogenous stressors. Using literature AD data from long-term (approximately 10-year) studies, we determined cumulative incidence of AD for each cohort within each study. These data for each study were examined for a changepoint year in which the AD cumulative incidence first increased. We used data sets from Denmark, California, Japan, and a worldwide composite of studies. In the Danish, California, and worldwide data sets, we found that an increase in AD cumulative incidence began about 1988-1989. The Japanese study (1988-1996) had AD cumulative incidence increasing continuously, and no changepoint year could be calculated. Although the debate about the nature of increasing autism continues, the potential for this increase to be real and involve exogenous environmental stressors exists. The timing of an increase in autism incidence may help in screening for potential candidate environmental stressors.

  16. Aeronautical Engineering: 1983 cumulative index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    This bibliography is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in NASA SP-7037 (158) through NASA SP-7037 (169) of Aeronautical Engineering: A Continuing Bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, contract, report number, and accession number indexes.

  17. The association between osteoporotic hip fractures and actinic lesions as a biomarker for cumulative sun exposure in older people-a retrospective case-control study in Argentina.

    PubMed

    Perroud, H A; Dagatti, M S; Amigot, B; Levit, G P; Tomat, M F; Morosano, M E; Masoni, A M; Pezzotto, S M

    2016-04-02

    The aim of this study was to analyze the association between the presence of actinic lesions (solar keratosis and non-melanoma skin cancer) and osteoporotic hip fractures in older patients. Both pathologies are common conditions in this age group. Since cumulative sun exposure is difficult to quantify, the presence of actinic lesions can be used to indirectly analyze the association between ultraviolet radiation and osteoporotic hip fractures. This was an observational case-control study. We reviewed the centralized medical records of patients with hip fracture (cases, n = 51) and patients with other diseases hospitalized in the same institution and period (controls, n = 59). The mean age of the patients was 80 ± 8.3 years (range 50-103 years). Differences in maternal hip fracture history were found between cases and controls (14.8 and 8 %, respectively; p = 0.047). Falls history in the past year was higher in cases than in controls (p < 0.0001). Actinic lesions were observed in 32.7 % of patients (prevalence rate 23.5 % in cases, 40.7 % in controls; p = 0.04). When considering patients with actinic lesions, controls have a higher FRAX score compared with cases. Although sun exposure is recommended for bone health, it represents a risk factor for actinic lesions. The presence of actinic lesions may indicate a lower osteoporotic hip fracture risk. A balance between adequate lifetime sun exposure and protection against its adverse effects is required for each patient, in the context of geographic location.

  18. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  19. Current genetic differentiation of Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehn in the Guineo-Congolian African zone: cumulative impact of ancient climatic changes and recent human activities

    PubMed Central

    Gomez, Céline; Dussert, Stéphane; Hamon, Perla; Hamon, Serge; Kochko, Alexandre de; Poncet, Valérie

    2009-01-01

    Background Among Coffea species, C. canephora has the widest natural distribution area in tropical African forests. It represents a good model for analyzing the geographical distribution of diversity in relation to locations proposed as part of the "refuge theory". In this study, we used both microsatellite (simple sequence repeat, SSR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers to investigate the genetic variation pattern of C. canephora in the Guineo-Congolean distribution zone. Results Both markers were first compared in terms of their informativeness and efficiency in a study of genetic diversity and relationships among wild C. canephora genotypes. As expected, SSR markers were found to have a higher genetic distance detection capacity than RFLP. Nevertheless, similarity matrices showed significant correlations when Mantel's test was carried out (r = 0.66, p < 0.0001). Finally, both markers were equally effective for group discrimination and phylogenetic studies, but SSR markers tended to outperform RFLP markers in discriminating the source of an individual among diversity groups and in putative hybrid detection. Five well defined genetic groups, one in the Upper Guinean forests, the four others in the Lower Guinean forests, were identified, corresponding to geographical patterning in the individuals. Conclusion Our data suggested that the Dahomey Gap, a biogeographical barrier, played a role in wild C. canephora differentiation. Climatic variations during the Pleistocene and/or Holocene probably caused the subgroup differentiation in the Congolese zone through the presence of a mosaic of putative refugia. Recent hybridization between C. canephora diversity groups, both for spontaneous individuals and cultivars, was further characterised according to their geographic dissemination or breeding history as a consequence of human activities. PMID:19607674

  20. Effect modification of the association of cumulative exposure and cancer risk by intensity of exposure and time since exposure cessation: a flexible method applied to cigarette smoking and lung cancer in the SYNERGY Study.

    PubMed

    Vlaanderen, Jelle; Portengen, Lützen; Schüz, Joachim; Olsson, Ann; Pesch, Beate; Kendzia, Benjamin; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Consonni, Dario; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Siemiatycki, Jack; Merletti, Franco; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Tardón, Adonina; Zaridze, David; Field, John K; 't Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; McLaughlin, John; Demers, Paul; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Rudnai, Peter; Fabianova, Eleonora; Stanescu Dumitru, Rodica; Bencko, Vladimir; Foretova, Lenka; Janout, Vladimir; Boffetta, Paolo; Forastiere, Francesco; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Peters, Susan; Brüning, Thomas; Kromhout, Hans; Straif, Kurt; Vermeulen, Roel

    2014-02-01

    The indiscriminate use of the cumulative exposure metric (the product of intensity and duration of exposure) might bias reported associations between exposure to hazardous agents and cancer risk. To assess the independent effects of duration and intensity of exposure on cancer risk, we explored effect modification of the association of cumulative exposure and cancer risk by intensity of exposure. We applied a flexible excess odds ratio model that is linear in cumulative exposure but potentially nonlinear in intensity of exposure to 15 case-control studies of cigarette smoking and lung cancer (1985-2009). Our model accommodated modification of the excess odds ratio per pack-year of cigarette smoking by time since smoking cessation among former smokers. We observed negative effect modification of the association of pack-years of cigarette smoking and lung cancer by intensity of cigarette smoke for persons who smoked more than 20-30 cigarettes per day. Patterns of effect modification were similar across individual studies and across major lung cancer subtypes. We observed strong negative effect modification by time since smoking cessation. Application of our method in this example of cigarette smoking and lung cancer demonstrated that reducing a complex exposure history to a metric such as cumulative exposure is too restrictive.

  1. Assessing the cumulative effects of projects using geographic information systems

    SciTech Connect

    Atkinson, Samuel F.; Canter, Larry W.

    2011-09-15

    Systems that allow users to store and retrieve spatial data, provide for analyses of spatial data, and offer highly detailed display of spatial data are referred to as geographic information systems, or more typically, GIS. Since their initial usage in the 1960s, GISs have evolved as a means of assembling and analyzing diverse data pertaining to specific geographical areas, with spatial locations of the data serving as the organizational basis for the information systems. The structure of GISs is built around spatial identifiers and the methods used to encode data for storage and manipulation. This paper examines how GIS has been used in typical environmental assessment, its use for cumulative impact assessment, and explores litigation that occurred in the United States Federal court system where GIS was used in some aspect of cumulative effects. The paper also summarizes fifteen case studies that range from area wide transportation planning to wildlife and habitat impacts, and draws together a few lessons learned from this review of literature and litigation.

  2. Cumulative Estrogen Exposure and Prospective Memory in Older Women

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hesson, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    This study looked at cumulative lifetime estrogen exposure, as estimated with a mathematical index (Index of Cumulative Estrogen Exposure (ICEE)) that included variables (length of time on estrogen therapy, age at menarche and menopause, postmenopausal body mass index, time since menopause, nulliparity and duration of breastfeeding) known to…

  3. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  4. CUMPOIS- CUMULATIVE POISSON DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The Cumulative Poisson distribution program, CUMPOIS, is one of two programs which make calculations involving cumulative poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), can be used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines the approximate cumulative binomial distribution, evaluates the cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters, and evaluates the cdf for chi-square distributions with even degrees of freedom. It can be used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. CUMPOIS calculates the probability that n or less events (ie. cumulative) will occur within any unit when the expected number of events is given as lambda. Normally, this probability is calculated by a direct summation, from i=0 to n, of terms involving the exponential function, lambda, and inverse factorials. This approach, however, eventually fails due to underflow for sufficiently large values of n. Additionally, when the exponential term is moved outside of the summation for simplification purposes, there is a risk that the terms remaining within the summation, and the summation itself, will overflow for certain values of i and lambda. CUMPOIS eliminates these possibilities by multiplying an additional exponential factor into the summation terms and the partial sum whenever overflow/underflow situations threaten. The reciprocal of this term is then multiplied into the completed sum giving the cumulative probability. The CUMPOIS program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly on most C compilers. The program format is interactive, accepting lambda and n as inputs. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMPOIS was

  5. Cumulate Fragments in Silicic Ignimbrites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, O.; Ellis, B. S.; Wolff, J.

    2014-12-01

    Increasingly, studies are concluding that silicic ignimbrites are the result of the amalgamation of multiple discrete magma batches. Yet the existence of discrete batches presents a conundrum for magma generation and storage; if silicic magma batches are not generated nearly in situ in the upper crust, they must traverse, and reside within, a thermally hostile environment with large temperature gradients, resulting in low survivability in their shallow magmatic hearths. The Snake River Plain (Idaho, USA) is a type example of this 'multi-batch' assembly with ignimbrites containing multiple populations of pyroxene crystals, glass shards, and crystal aggregates. The ubiquitous crystal aggregates hint at a mechanism to facilitate the existence of multiple, relatively small batches of rhyolite in the upper crust. These aggregates contain the same plagioclase, pyroxene, and oxide mineral compositions as single phenocrysts of the same minerals in their host rocks, but they have significantly less silicic bulk compositions and lack quartz and sanidine, which occur as single phenocrysts in the deposits. This implies significant crystallization followed by melt extraction from mushy reservoir margins. The extracted melt then continues to evolve (crystallizing sanidine and quartz) while the melt-depleted margins provide an increasingly rigid and refractory network segregating the crystal-poor batches of magma. The hot, refractory, margins insulate the crystal-poor lenses, allowing (1) extended residence in the upper crust, and (2) preservation of chemical heterogeneities among batches. In contrast, systems that produce cumulates richer in low-temperature phases (quartz, K-feldspars, and/or biotite) favour remelting upon recharge, leading to less segregation of eruptible melt pockets and the formation of gradationally zoned ignimbrites. The occurrence of similar crystal aggregates from a variety of magmatic lineages suggests the generality of this process.

  6. Longitudinal Pathways from Cumulative Contextual Risk at Birth to School Functioning in Adolescence: Analysis of Mediation Effects and Gender Moderation.

    PubMed

    January, Stacy-Ann A; Mason, W Alex; Savolainen, Jukka; Solomon, Starr; Chmelka, Mary B; Miettunen, Jouko; Veijola, Juha; Moilanen, Irma; Taanila, Anja; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta

    2017-01-01

    Children and adolescents exposed to multiple contextual risks are more likely to have academic difficulties and externalizing behavior problems than those who experience fewer risks. This study used data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (a population-based study; N = 6961; 51 % female) to investigate (a) the impact of cumulative contextual risk at birth on adolescents' academic performance and misbehavior in school, (b) learning difficulties and/or externalizing behavior problems in childhood as intervening mechanisms in the association of cumulative contextual risk with functioning in adolescence, and (c) potential gender differences in the predictive associations of cumulative contextual risk at birth with functioning in childhood or adolescence. The results of the structural equation modeling analysis suggested that exposure to cumulative contextual risk at birth had negative associations with functioning 16 years later, and academic difficulties and externalizing behavior problems in childhood mediated some of the predictive relations. Gender, however, did not moderate any of the associations. Therefore, the findings of this study have implications for the prevention of learning and conduct problems in youth and future research on the impact of cumulative risk exposure.

  7. Modeling neural activity with cumulative damage distributions.

    PubMed

    Leiva, Víctor; Tejo, Mauricio; Guiraud, Pierre; Schmachtenberg, Oliver; Orio, Patricio; Marmolejo-Ramos, Fernando

    2015-10-01

    Neurons transmit information as action potentials or spikes. Due to the inherent randomness of the inter-spike intervals (ISIs), probabilistic models are often used for their description. Cumulative damage (CD) distributions are a family of probabilistic models that has been widely considered for describing time-related cumulative processes. This family allows us to consider certain deterministic principles for modeling ISIs from a probabilistic viewpoint and to link its parameters to values with biological interpretation. The CD family includes the Birnbaum-Saunders and inverse Gaussian distributions, which possess distinctive properties and theoretical arguments useful for ISI description. We expand the use of CD distributions to the modeling of neural spiking behavior, mainly by testing the suitability of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, which has not been studied in the setting of neural activity. We validate this expansion with original experimental and simulated electrophysiological data.

  8. Social Impact Studies: An Expository Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shields, Mark A.

    1975-01-01

    Analyzed are some selected studies on the social impact of resources development and construction projects including dams, highways, nuclear power plants and strip mines. The analytical and methodological problem of assessing differential impacts is stressed. (BT)

  9. Exposure to phthalates in 5-6 years old primary school starters in Germany--a human biomonitoring study and a cumulative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koch, Holger M; Wittassek, Matthias; Brüning, Thomas; Angerer, Jürgen; Heudorf, Ursel

    2011-06-01

    We determined the internal exposure of 111 German primary school starters by analyzing urinary metabolites of six phthalates: butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP), di-iso-butyl phthalate (DiBP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP) and di-iso-decylphthalate (DiDP). From the urinary metabolite levels, we calculated daily intakes and related these values to Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values. By introducing the concept of a relative cumulative Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI(cum)) value, we tried to account for the cumulative exposure to several of the above-mentioned phthalates. The TDI(cum) was derived as follows: the daily intake (DI) calculated from the metabolite level was divided by the TDI for each phthalate; this ratio was multiplied by 100% indicating the TDI percentage for which the DI accounted. Finally the % TDIs of the different phthalates were totalled to get the TDI(cum). A TDI(cum) above 100% is a potential cause for concern. We confirmed the ubiquitous exposure of the children to all phthalates investigated. Exposures were within range of levels previously reported for GerES, albeit slightly lower. Regarding daily intakes, two children exceeded the TDI for DnBP, whereas one child closely approached the TDI for DEHP. 24% of the children exceeded the TDI(cum) for the three most critical phthalates: DEHP, DnBP and DiBP. Furthermore, 54% of the children had total exposures that used up more than 50% the TDI(cum). Therefore, the overall exposure to a number of phthalates, and the knowledge that these phthalates (and other anti-androgens) act in a dose-additive manner, urgently warrants a cumulative risk assessment approach.

  10. The study of the cumulative effects of the application of urban sewage sludge on an eroded soil cultivated in the Algerian steppe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutmedjet, Ahmed; Boukkaya, Nassira; Houyou, zohra; Ouakid, Mohamed; Bielders, Charles

    2014-05-01

    Since the seventies, desertification is one of the major problems faced by the Mediterranean climate regions. These problems are inherent in the soil and climate characteristics of these regions, but their magnitude and acuity depend mainly on human activities. The process of desertification that affects more and more land is more pronounced as soil degradation, which accelerates constantly reduced resources farmland and pasture. Especially in areas bordering the Sahara, as the Algerian steppe, a real belt between the Sahara and the Algerian tell As part of the study of the cumulative effect of the application of urban sewage sludge on sandy soil and culture that is a cereal (barley), we had results that enabled us to identify some precepts,. The short-term effects studied in this experiment indicate that the amendment of the sewage sludge had a beneficial effect on the fertilizing qualities of the soil and therefore the performance of barley. To observations of Culture (barley), indicate that the best grain yield was obtained with D3 (28.76 quintals / ha) and D2 (33.91 quintals / ha). This is due to the effect of the sludge by the addition of required nutrients crop production. The lowest yield (24.11 quintals / ha) being obtained for the control (D0). It is the same for straw yield, with 47.5 quintals / ha in D2. The D3 treatment (30 t / ha) has previously presented the best results, but after 3 years we noticed that the best yields are obtained with D2 (10 t / ha). Except the pH and the rate of limestone that are related to changes in the characteristics of the site, there was an improvement in some physical and chemical properties of the soil. The contributions of sewage sludge amended greater quality soil biology D2 (number and effective species collected). Increasing the organic matter content (1.45%) and electrical conductivity (0.18 microseconds / cm) in the soil is only significant for the highest dose (30t/ha), although a tendency to enrichment in

  11. Effect of sampling frequency on estimates of cumulative nitrous oxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Parkin, Timothy B

    2008-01-01

    It is generally recognized that soil N(2)O emissions can exhibit pronounced day-to-day variations; however, measurements of soil N(2)O flux with soil chambers typically are done only at discrete points in time. This study evaluated the impact of sampling frequency on the precision of cumulative N(2)O flux estimates calculated from field measurements. Automated chambers were deployed in a corn/soybean field and used to measure soil N(2)O fluxes every 6 h from 25 Feb. 2006 through 11 Oct. 2006. The chambers were located in two positions relative to the fertilizer bands-directly over a band or between fertilizer bands. Sampling frequency effects on cumulative N(2)O-N flux estimation were assessed using a jackknife technique where populations of N(2)O fluxes were constructed from the average daily fluxes measured in each chamber. These test populations were generated by selecting measured flux values at regular time intervals ranging from 1 to 21 d. It was observed that as sampling interval increased from 7 to 21 d, variances associated with cumulative flux estimates increased. At relatively frequent sampling intensities (i.e., once every 3 d) N(2)O-N flux estimates were within +/-10% of the expected value at both sampling positions. As the time interval between sampling was increased, the deviation in estimated cumulative N(2)O flux increased, such that sampling once every 21 d yielded estimates within +60% and -40% of the actual cumulative N(2)O flux. The variance of potential fluxes associated with the between-band positions was less than the over-band position, indicating that the underlying temporal variability impacts the efficacy of a given sampling protocol.

  12. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    PubMed

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning.

  13. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  14. The Contribution of Project Environmental Assessment to Assessing and Managing Cumulative Effects: Individually and Collectively Insignificant?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noble, Bram; Liu, Jialang; Hackett, Paul

    2017-04-01

    This paper explores the opportunities and constraints to project-based environmental assessment as a means to support the assessment and management of cumulative environmental effects. A case study of the hydroelectric sector is used to determine whether sufficient information is available over time through project-by-project assessments to support an adequate understanding of cumulative change. Results show inconsistency from one project to the next in terms of the components and indicators assessed, limited transfer of baseline information between project assessments over time, and the same issues and concerns being raised by review panels-even though the projects reviewed are operating in the same watershed and operated by the same proponent. Project environmental assessments must be managed, and coordinated, as part of a larger system of impact assessment, if project-by-project assessments are to provide a meaningful forum for learning and understanding cumulative change. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved project-based assessment practice in support of cumulative effects assessment and management.

  15. Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up

    PubMed Central

    HORAN, JACQUELINE M.; WIDOM, CATHY SPATZ

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning. PMID:25196178

  16. Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

    PubMed

    Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2015-08-01

    This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

  17. Trace element distribution in silicate phases from the cumulate mafic xenoliths of Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central): A LA-ICP-MS study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demaiffe, D.; Berger, J.; Femenias, O.; Coussaert, N.

    2003-04-01

    A large diversity of xenoliths is present in the scoria cones of the quaternary Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central). Mafic xenoliths are abundant, they are mainly gabbronorites with minor pyroxenites and anorthositic gabbros. It has been shown recently that they derived from a deep layered complex emplaced at the crust-mantle boundary during Late Permian (257+/- 6Ma). These rocks still partly show magmatic structures. However, sub-solidus recrystallisation and pyrometamorphic overprinting (while the xenoliths were taken up by the lava) have partly blurred the magmatic primary textures. The xenoliths now have polygonal and coronitic textures, so intercumulus phases cannot be easily identified. The abundance of orthopyroxene (generally missing in alkaline series), the low content of REE and trace elements and the nearly flat spidergram profiles suggest that these xenoliths are of subalkaline affinity. They commonly show mm- to cm- scale layering indicative of a cumulate origin. Positive (in whole rock plagioclase-rich gabbros) and negative (in pyroxene-rich gabbros) Eu anomalies also argue for a cumulate origin. The trace element contents (REE, Zr, Hf, Rb, Sr, Nb, Ta, Ba) of the main silicate phases (plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene and the very fine-grained coronites) have been obtained by LA-ICP-MS. Two processes control the REE content of these mafic xenoliths: 1) the degree of differentiation, which is indicated by the Mg# of the cumulus orthopyroxene; 2) the proportion of trapped interstitial liquid which is indicated by the content of highly incompatible elements (U, Th, Zr and Rb) in whole rock analyses. Plagioclases and orthopyroxenes have relatively low REE contents compared to clinopyroxene and coronitic association suggesting that they are the cumulus phases. High REE and trace element contents of clinopyroxenes and of the very fine-grained coronites point to an intercumulus origin. Moreover, in situ REE patterns show that the very fine

  18. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    SciTech Connect

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale.

  19. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem.

  20. Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

    2015-06-01

    The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

  1. Head Start Impact Study. Technical Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Shapiro, Gary; Broene, Pam; Jenkins, Frank; Fletcher, Philip; Quinn, Liz; Friedman, Janet; Ciarico, Janet; Rohacek, Monica; Adams, Gina; Spier, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    This Technical Report is designed to provide technical detail to support the analysis and findings presented in the "Head Start Impact Study Final Report" (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, January 2010). Chapter 1 provides an overview of the Head Start Impact Study and its findings. Chapter 2 provides technical information on the…

  2. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization.

    PubMed

    Matthews, H Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-09-13

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO(2) concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO(2) emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO(2) relative to other major climate forcing agents.

  3. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

    PubMed Central

    Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

  4. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Ning; Dumas, Christophe; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Ramstein, Gilles; Contoux, Camille

    2016-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), global annual mean temperature is warmer by 2-3 degree than pre-industrial. Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to be a 50% reduction compared to nowadays [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ~ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, there is already full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. How does Greenland ice sheet evolve from a half size to a glaciation level during 3 Ma - 2.5 Ma? Data show that there is a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process. In order to diagnose whether the ice sheet build-up is an abrupt event or a cumulative process, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables to investigate waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. To reach this goal, we use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014) which combines the evolution of CO2 concentration, orbital parameters and Greenland ice sheet sizes in an off-line way by interpolating snapshots simulations. Thanks to this new method, we can build a transient like simulation through asynchronous coupling between GCM and ice sheet model. With this method, we may consistently answer the question of the build-up of Greenland: abrupt or cumulative process.

  5. Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

    2014-03-01

    Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact.

  6. Do Glioma Patients Derive Any Therapeutic Benefit From Taking a Higher Cumulative Dose of Temozolomide Regimens?

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Hao; Du, Shasha; Liao, Guixiang; Xie, Xiao; Ren, Chen; Yuan, Ya Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Temozolomide (TMZ) is an oral alkylating agent with established effects on the central nervous system of glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Clinical trials have demonstrated a significant impact on overall survival (OS) with TMZ. Ever since, several TMZ regimens have been designed to improve treatment efficacy by increasing the cumulative dose per cycle. We report a meta-analysis to systematically evaluate different treatment schedules of TMZ in GBM patients. All searches that were conducted in the Cochrane library, Science Direct, and PubMed Databases, and 3 randomized controlled trials (1141 patients) were included. OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were the primary outcomes to be pooled. Unexpectedly, this analysis did not reveal any OS or PFS advantage for the high cumulative dose (HCD) regimen compared with the normal cumulative dose regimen (1141 total patients; hazard ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% CI 0.94–1.22, P = 0.31). Then after analyzing the characteristics of the results from each trial, we found that the regimen with a higher peak concentration during a short-term period (daily doses ≥150 mg/m2/d within ≤7 days/cycle) always had a more superior clinical benefit. So we generated a new pooled HR of 1.10 with a 95% CI of 0.96–1.25 (P = 0.17), which prefers the high peak concentration schedule even without a significant difference. The adverse outcome also indicates a significant increased risk of leukopenia (risk ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.03–2.46, P = 0.04) among the HCD group. Our study suggests that increasing the cumulative dose per cycle is not an ideal way to improve the efficacy of TMZ, and it will lead to increased risk for leukopenia. Future trials should be designed to examine schedules of higher peak concentration rather than the cumulative dose per cycle. PMID:25997057

  7. Multiple imputation methods for nonparametric inference on cumulative incidence with missing cause of failure

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Minjung; Dignam, James J.; Han, Junhee

    2014-01-01

    We propose a nonparametric approach for cumulative incidence estimation when causes of failure are unknown or missing for some subjects. Under the missing at random assumption, we estimate the cumulative incidence function using multiple imputation methods. We develop asymptotic theory for the cumulative incidence estimators obtained from multiple imputation methods. We also discuss how to construct confidence intervals for the cumulative incidence function and perform a test for comparing the cumulative incidence functions in two samples with missing cause of failure. Through simulation studies, we show that the proposed methods perform well. The methods are illustrated with data from a randomized clinical trial in early stage breast cancer. PMID:25043107

  8. Cumulative life course impairment in melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer.

    PubMed

    Piaserico, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Patients with skin cancer remain at risk for disease progression or relapse for many years. Therefore, skin cancer may be considered a chronic, life-threatening disease. It could impact on patients lifestyles and social and professional activities. Although no direct study of cumulative life course impairment (CLCI) in skin cancer patients has been carried out, a few studies suggest that skin cancer may strongly impair quality of life and eventually determine a significant CLCI (melanoma more than nonmelanoma skin cancer). Obviously, the life course of patients with melanoma at an advanced stage of the disease may change considerably. A number of cancer-associated problems may determine a CLCI, including familial or professional changes and a reduction of life expectancy may eventually lead to social withdrawal and depressive disorders. Even patients with a low stage disease may experience an important impairment of quality of life and in some cases a CLCI. Some skin cancer patients may have physical and psychological after effects from their cancer surgery. Several patients complain about lymphedema, discomfort experienced from wearing surgical stockings, and diminished range of physical motion postsurgery. A few are concerned about their body image due to surgical scars, and they may consider changing their job position because of the supposed negative impact of scars in visible sites on their ability to perform their job. Some female melanoma survivors may have a reduced desire of having children in the future.

  9. The Amphiolite Layers In The Cumulate Gabbros, (Northern-Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Özkan, Mutlu; Faruk Çelik, Ömer; Altıntaş, İsmail Emir; Sherlock, Sarah; Chelle-Michou, Cyril; Marzoli, Andrea; Ulianov, Alexey; Melih Çörtük, Rahmi; Topuz, Gültekin

    2016-04-01

    The Early-Middle Jurassic SSZ type dismembered ophiolite sequence, which is remnants of the Tethyan oceanic lithosphere, crop out in the accretionary complex around Tokat-Çamlıbel region (Northern Turkey). The main lithology of the ophiolite sequence are cumulate gabbros, isotropic gabbros and basalts. The amphibolite layers, which their thickness are up to 2 m, are observed in the cumulate gabbros. In this study, we aim to discuss a possible formation mechanism of the amphibolitic rocks in the cumulate gabbros, based on the field, mineralogical, geochemical and geochronological data. The cumulate gabbros (olivine-gabbro, gabbro-norite and gabbro) have generally well developed magmatic layers and they show cumulate texture. They are cross cut by pegmatite gabbros, dolerites and plagiogranite dikes. In terms of the mechanism of formation, the amphibolite layers in the cumulate gabbros are different from dolerite, pegmatite gabbro and plagiogranite dikes crosscutting the cumulate gabbros. Although the cumulate gabbros, the mafic and felsic dikes have not undergone any metamorphism (except the hydrothermal metamorphism), the amphibolite layers show well developed foliation and banded structure. Moreover, field and petrographic observations showed that the amphibolitic rocks were highly subjected to shearing. The amphibolitic rocks are mainly composed of magnesio-hornblende + plagioclase (andesine), ± biotite and opaque minerals and they exhibit nematoblastic texture. The amphibolite layers in the cumulate gabbros are crosscut by the plagiogranite dikes. The plagiogranites consist mainly of quartz, plagioclase, biotite and opaque minerals and they show granular texture. Undulose extinction and sub-grain formation in quartz minerals indicate to the presence of deformation phase affecting the plagiogranite dikes. LA-ICP-MS dating on zircon from plagiogranite dikes which is cross-cutting of the amphibolite layers, yielded Middle Jurassic ages. 40Ar/39Ar dating of

  10. Sierra ozone impact-assessment study. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Carroll, J.J.

    1991-06-01

    The Sierra Cooperative Ozone Impact Assessment Study (SCOIAS) is a multi-agency effort involving the University of California, Davis (UCD), U.S. Forest Service and California Air Resources Board. The objectives of the SCOIAS are to monitor air quality and foliar damage in mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada of California, and to characterize the levels of ozone that forest trees are exposed to throughout the year. In the first year, UCD established air quality monitoring stations in five National forests (NF) to measure the concentration of ozone and a number of meteorological variables (i.e., wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity). The five stations are located at: Mountain Home (Sequoia NF), Jerseydale (Sierra NF), Five-Mile (Stanislaus NF), Sly Park (El Dorado NF) and White Cloud (Tahoe NF). Through March 20, 1991, 433 site-days of data were collected, and the loss of data due to instrument malfunction was less than eight percent of the cumulative sampling period. To date, the highest ozone concentrations were observed in October 1990, when hourly averaged concentrations exceeded 100 ppbv at Mountain Home, Jerseydale and White Cloud. In winter, ozone concentrations were generally below 80 ppbv.

  11. Cumulative reaction probabilities and transition state properties: a study of the H+ + H2 and H+ + D2 proton exchange reactions.

    PubMed

    Jambrina, P G; Aoiz, F J; Eyles, C J; Herrero, V J; Sáez Rábanos, V

    2009-05-14

    Cumulative reaction probabilities (CRPs) have been calculated by accurate (converged, close coupling) quantum mechanical (QM), quasiclassical trajectory (QCT), and statistical QCT (SQCT) methods for the H(+) + H(2) and H(+) + D(2) reactions at collision energies up to 1.2 eV and total angular momentum J = 0-4. A marked resonance structure is found in the QM CRP, most especially for the H(3)(+) system and J = 0. When the CRPs are resolved in their ortho and para contributions, a clear steplike structure is found associated with the opening of internal states of reactants and products. The comparison of the QCT results with those of the other methods evinces the occurrence of two transition states, one at the entrance and one at the exit. At low J values, except for the quantal resonance structure and the lack of quantization in the product channel, the agreement between QM and QCT is very good. The SQCT model, that reflects the steplike structure associated with the opening of initial and final states accurately, clearly tends to overestimate the value of the CRP as the collision energy increases. This effect seems more marked for the H(+) + D(2) isotopic variant. For sufficiently high J values, the growth of the centrifugal barrier leads to an increase in the threshold of the CRP. At these high J values the discrepancy between SQCT and QCT becomes larger and is magnified with growing collision energy. The total CRPs calculated with the QCT and SQCT methods allowed the determination of the rate constant for the H(+) + D(2) reaction. It was found that the rate, in agreement with experiment, decreases with temperature as expected for an endothermic reaction. In the range of temperatures between 200 and 500 K the differences between SQCT and QCT rate results are relatively minor. Although exact QM calculations are formidable for an exact determination of the k(T), it can be reliably expected that their value will lie between those given by the dynamical and statistical

  12. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    PubMed Central

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children (especially at the beginning of the study period), the age-specific risk profiles are markedly different, with higher risks for older Danish children than for older American children. PMID:25299657

  13. Cumulative risks of foster care placement for Danish children.

    PubMed

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children (especially at the beginning of the study period), the age-specific risk profiles are markedly different, with higher risks for older Danish children than for older American children.

  14. Degradation studies of Martian impact craters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barlow, N. G.

    1991-01-01

    The amount of obliteration suffered by Martian impact craters is quantified by comparing measurable attributes of the current crater shape to those values expected for a fresh crater of identical size. Crater diameters are measured from profiles obtained using photoclinometry across the structure. The relationship between the diameter of a fresh crater and a crater depth, floor width, rim height, central peak height, etc. was determined by empirical studies performed on fresh Martian impact craters. We utilized the changes in crater depth and rim height to judge the degree of obliteration suffered by Martian impact craters.

  15. Effect of correlations on cumulants in heavy-ion collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, D. K.; Garg, P.; Netrakanti, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    We study the effects of correlations on cumulants and their ratios of net-proton multiplicity distributions which have been measured for central (0%-5%) Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). This effect has been studied by assuming individual proton and antiproton distributions as a Poisson or negative binomial distribution (NBD). In spite of significantly correlated production due to baryon number, electric charge conservation, and kinematical correlations of protons and antiprotons, the measured cumulants of the net-proton distribution follow the independent-production model. In the present work we demonstrate how the introduction of the correlations will affect the cumulants and their ratios for the difference distributions. We have also demonstrated this study using the proton and antiproton distributions obtained from the hijing event generator.

  16. System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  17. Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  18. Moments from Cumulants and Vice Versa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Withers, Christopher S.; Nadarajah, Saralees

    2009-01-01

    Moments and cumulants are expressed in terms of each other using Bell polynomials. Inbuilt routines for the latter make these expressions amenable to use by algebraic manipulation programs. One of the four formulas given is an explicit version of Kendall's use of Faa di Bruno's chain rule to express cumulants in terms of moments.

  19. Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams-Wyche, Shaun

    2016-01-01

    To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

  20. Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model - A case study for the Stockholm region

    SciTech Connect

    Gontier, Mikael . E-mail: gontier@kth.se

    2007-07-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) provide two interlinked platforms for the assessment of impacts on biodiversity caused by human developments. Although it might be too early to draw conclusions on the efficiency of SEA to assess such impacts, a number of persistent problems have been identified in the case of EIA. Some of these shortcomings concern the lack of proper prediction and impact quantification, and the inadequate/insufficient assessment of cumulative effects. A number of problems are related to the scale(s) at which the assessment is performed. SEA may provide a more adequate framework than EIA to discuss scale-related issues (i.e. cumulative impacts) but it also requires the use of adapted tools. This paper presents a case study where a GIS-based habitat model for the lesser spotted woodpecker is tested, validated and applied to a planning scenario in the Stockholm region in Sweden. The results show that the method adopted offers great prospects to contribute to a better assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. Even though some limitations remain in the form of data requirement and interpretation of the results, the model produced continuous, quantified predictions over the study area and provided a relevant basis for the assessment of cumulative effects. Furthermore, this paper discusses potential conflicts between different scales involved in the assessment - related to administrative boundaries, ecological processes, data availability, the method adopted to perform the assessment and temporal aspects.

  1. Long-term benthic monitoring studies in the freshwater portion of the Potomac River: 1983 to 1985, cumulative report. Volume 1. Text

    SciTech Connect

    Shaughnessy, A.T.; Holland, A.F.

    1989-12-01

    The report summarizes data from the first three years of a long-term monitoring program to establish baseline conditions in benthic communities on the upper Potomac River. Major sources of variation were considered in an effort to characterize the effect of two power plants on distribution and abundance of the benthos. Distinct changes occurred in benthic communities in the vicinity of power plant discharges. These included decreased abundances of dominant species and reduced occurrences of rare species. Impacts associated with power plants were most severe during summer months and during low flow years.

  2. Long-term benthic monitoring studies in the freshwater portion of the Potomac River: 1983 to 1985, cumulative report. Volume 2. Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Shaughnessy, A.T.; Holland, A.F.

    1989-12-01

    The report summarizes data from the first three years of a long-term monitoring program to establish baseline conditions in benthic communities on the upper Potomac River. Major sources of variation were considered in an effort to characterize the effect of two power plants on distribution and abundance of the benthos. Distinct changes occurred in benthic communities in the vicinity of power plant discharges. These included decreased abundances of dominant species and reduced occurrences of rare species. Impacts associated with power plants were most severe during summer months and during low flow years.

  3. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    PubMed

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2016-01-04

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  4. Comparison of Phonic Analysis and Whole Word-Reading on First Graders' Cumulative Words Read and Cumulative Reading Rate: An Extension in Examining Instructional Effectiveness and Efficiency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidgall, Melissa; Joseph, Laurice M.

    2007-01-01

    This study compared the instructional effectiveness and efficiency of three word-reading interventions on cumulative number of words read accurately and cumulative learning rate. Participants were six first graders who needed intensive intervention services. Alternating treatment designs were used to compare the effects of interspersal drill, a…

  5. Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1991-01-01

    Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45

  6. Cumulative frequency fit for particle size distribution.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhuyun; Gautam, Mridul; Mehta, Sandeep

    2002-08-01

    A cumulative frequency distribution fit method is presented for analyzing particle size distributions by minimizing the summation of the square of cumulative frequency errors. Compared to the frequency fit method, the cumulative frequency fit method yields a more accurate solution. Based upon this, a spreadsheet was developed for analyzing multi-modal particle size distribution. The motivation for the work presented in this article was the current interest in ultra-fine and nano-sized particle exhaust emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines. The new spreadsheet provides a quick and convenient way to conduct particle size distribution analysis.

  7. Study Quality in SLA: A Cumulative and Developmental Assessment of Designs, Analyses, Reporting Practices, and Outcomes in Quantitative L2 Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plonsky, Luke

    2011-01-01

    I began this study with two assumptions. Assumption 1: Study quality matters. If the means by which researchers design, carry out, and report on their studies lack in rigor or transparency, theory and practice are likely to be misguided or at least decelerated. Assumption 2 is an implication of Assumption 1: Quality should be measured rather than…

  8. Cumulative effects of fecal contamination from combined sewer overflows: Management for source water protection.

    PubMed

    Jalliffier-Verne, Isabelle; Heniche, Mourad; Madoux-Humery, Anne-Sophie; Galarneau, Martine; Servais, Pierre; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

    2016-06-01

    The quality of a drinking water source depends largely on upstream contaminant discharges. Sewer overflows can have a large influence on downstream drinking water intakes as they discharge untreated or partially treated wastewaters that may be contaminated with pathogens. This study focuses on the quantification of Escherichia coli discharges from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and the dispersion and diffusion in receiving waters in order to prioritize actions for source water protection. E. coli concentrations from CSOs were estimated from monitoring data at a series of overflow structures and then applied to the 42 active overflow structures between 2009 and 2012 using a simple relationship based upon the population within the drainage network. From these estimates, a transport-dispersion model was calibrated with data from a monitoring program from both overflow structures and downstream drinking water intakes. The model was validated with 15 extreme events such as a large number of overflows (n > 8) or high concentrations at drinking water intakes. Model results demonstrated the importance of the cumulative effects of CSOs on the degradation of water quality downstream. However, permits are typically issued on a discharge point basis and do not consider cumulative effects. Source water protection plans must consider the cumulative effects of discharges and their concentrations because the simultaneous discharge of multiple overflows can lead to elevated E. coli concentrations at a drinking water intake. In addition, some CSOs have a disproportionate impact on peak concentrations at drinking water intakes. As such, it is recommended that the management of CSOs move away from frequency based permitting at the discharge point to focus on the development of comprehensive strategies to reduce cumulative and peak discharges from CSOs upstream of drinking water intakes.

  9. Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent efforts to update cumulative risk assessment procedures to incorporate nonchemical stressors ranging from physical to psychosocial reflect increased interest in consideration of the totality of variables affecting human health and the growing desire to develop community-based risk assessment methods. A key roadblock is the uncertainty as to how nonchemical stressors behave in relationship to chemical stressors. Physical stressors offer a reasonable starting place for measuring the effects of nonchemical stressors and their modulation of chemical effects (and vice versa), as they clearly differ from chemical stressors; and “doses” of many physical stressors are more easily quantifiable than those of psychosocial stressors. There is a commonly held belief that virtually nothing is known about the impact of nonchemical stressors on chemically mediated toxicity or the joint impact of coexposure to chemical and nonchemical stressors. Although this is generally true, there are several instances where a substantial body of evidence exists. A workshop titled “Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors” held at the 2013 Society of Toxicology Annual Meeting provided a forum for discussion of research addressing the toxicity of physical stressors and what is known about their interactions with chemical stressors, both in terms of exposure and effects. Physical stressors including sunlight, heat, radiation, infectious disease, and noise were discussed in reference to identifying pathways of interaction with chemical stressors, data gaps, and suggestions for future incorporation into cumulative risk assessments. PMID:24154487

  10. Head Start Impact Study: First Year Findings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Lopez, Michael

    2005-01-01

    The Congressionally-mandated Head Start Impact Study is being conducted across 84 nationally representative grantee/delegate agencies. Approximately 5,000 newly entering 3- and 4-year-old children applying for Head Start were randomly assigned to either a Head Start group that had access to Head Start program services or to a non-Head Start group…

  11. Aerospace Medicine and Biology: Cumulative index, 1979

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    This publication is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in the Supplements 190 through 201 of 'Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A Continuing Bibliography.' It includes three indexes-subject, personal author, and corporate source.

  12. NPS Gas Gun for Planar Impact Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheong Ho, Chien; Hixson, Robert

    2009-11-01

    The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) commissioned a Gas Gun for shock wave studies on 9^th October 2009, by performing the first experiment. The Gas Gun is the key element of NPS Shock Wave Research Program within the Physics Department, where well-characterized planar impacts are essential for obtaining high quality data, to characterize a solid material. This first experiment was very successful, and returned key data on the quality of the impact conditions created. The Gas Gun is designed by SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES, and the NPS spent twelve months fabricating the components of the Gas Gun and six months assembling the Gas Gun. Three inch projectile are launched at velocities up to 0.5 km/s, creating high pressure and temperature states that can be used to characterize the fundamental response of relevant materials to dynamic loading. The projectile is launched from a `wrap around' gas breech where helium gas is pressurized to relatively low pressure. This gas is used to accelerate the projectile down a 3m barrel. Upon impact, the speed of the projectile and the flatness of the impact is measured, via a stepped circular pin array circuit. The next stage of development for the Gas Gun is to integrate a Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR). The VISAR sees all the waves that flow through the target plate as a result of the impact. This is a key diagnostic for determining material properties under dynamic loading conditions.

  13. Hypervelocity Impact Studies on Solar Cell Modules

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.; Best, Stevie R.

    2001-01-01

    Space environmental effects have caused severe problems as satellites move toward increased power and operating voltage levels. The greatest unknown, however, is the effect of high velocity micrometeoroid impacts on high voltage arrays (>200V). Understanding such impact phenomena is necessary for the design of future reliable, high voltage solar arrays, especially for Space Solar Power applications. Therefore, the objective of this work was to study the effect of hypervelocity impacts on high voltage solar arrays. Initially, state of the art, 18% efficient GaAs solar cell strings were targeted. The maximum bias voltage on a two-cell string was -200 V while the adjacent string was held at -140 V relative to the plasma potential. A hollow cathode device provided the plasma. Soda lime glass particles 40-120 micrometers in diameter were accelerated in the Hypervelocity Impact Facility to velocities as high as 11.6 km/sec. Coordinates and velocity were obtained for each of the approximately 40 particle impact sites on each shot. Arcing did occur, and both discharging and recharging of arcs between the two strings was observed. The recharging phenomena appeared to stop at approximately 66V string differential. No arcing was observed at 400 V on concentrator cell modules for the Stretched Lens Array.

  14. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  15. Cumulative Risk and Low-Income Children's Language Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanton-Chapman, Tina L.; Chapman, Derek A.; Kaiser, Ann P.; Hancock, Terry B.

    2004-01-01

    This study utilized an electronic data linkage method to examine the effects of risk factors present at birth on language development in preschool. The Preschool Language Scale-3 (PLS-3) was administered to 853 low-income children, and cumulative risk data were abstracted from linked birth records. At least one risk factor was present in 94% of…

  16. Cumulative Experiences of Violence among High-Risk Urban Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Catherine A.; Boris, Neil W.; Heller, Sherryl Scott; Clum, Gretchen A.; Rice, Janet C.; Zeanah, Charles H.

    2008-01-01

    This study examines type-specific and cumulative experiences of violence among a vulnerable population of youth. Sixty high-risk, shelter-dwelling, urban youth were interviewed regarding their history of childhood maltreatment, exposure to community violence (ECV), and experience with intimate partner violence (IPV). Results show a high prevalence…

  17. FEASIBILITY STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of studying potential effects of climate change on impairments resulting from nitrogen loadings in the salt water embayments of Cape Cod. The report includes a recommended plan for studying these impacts, an estimate of the costs and level of effort required; a tally of data, information, and modeling requirements; an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the plan; and recommendations for the appropriate use of results. Study to determine feasibility of studying climate change effects on nitrogen impaired estuarine embayments

  18. Human cumulative culture: a comparative perspective.

    PubMed

    Dean, Lewis G; Vale, Gill L; Laland, Kevin N; Flynn, Emma; Kendal, Rachel L

    2014-05-01

    Many animals exhibit social learning and behavioural traditions, but human culture exhibits unparalleled complexity and diversity, and is unambiguously cumulative in character. These similarities and differences have spawned a debate over whether animal traditions and human culture are reliant on homologous or analogous psychological processes. Human cumulative culture combines high-fidelity transmission of cultural knowledge with beneficial modifications to generate a 'ratcheting' in technological complexity, leading to the development of traits far more complex than one individual could invent alone. Claims have been made for cumulative culture in several species of animals, including chimpanzees, orangutans and New Caledonian crows, but these remain contentious. Whilst initial work on the topic of cumulative culture was largely theoretical, employing mathematical methods developed by population biologists, in recent years researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including psychology, biology, economics, biological anthropology, linguistics and archaeology, have turned their attention to the experimental investigation of cumulative culture. We review this literature, highlighting advances made in understanding the underlying processes of cumulative culture and emphasising areas of agreement and disagreement amongst investigators in separate fields.

  19. Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

    2015-12-01

    The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

  20. Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.

    PubMed

    Laratte, Bertrand; Guillaume, Bertrand; Kim, Junbeum; Birregah, Babiga

    2014-05-15

    This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators.

  1. Towards Greenland Glaciation: Cumulative or Abrupt Transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, N.; Ramstein, G.; Contoux, C.; Ladant, J. B.; Dumas, C.; Donnadieu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The insolation evolution [Laskar 2004] from 4 to 2.5 Ma depicts a series of three summer solstice insolation minima between 2.7 and 2.6 Ma, but there are other more important summer solstice minima notably around 3.82 and 3.05 Ma. On such a time span of more than 1 Ma, data shows that there are variations in the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration with a local maximum around 3 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011], before a decrease between 3 and 2.6 Ma. The latter, suggesting an abrupt ice sheet inception around 2.7 Ma, has been shown to be a major culprit for the full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2014, in review] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, with surviving ice during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process in the first place, which could further lead to full glaciation at 2.7 Ma. Through a new tri-dimensional interpolation method implemented within the asynchronous coupling between an atmosphere ocean general circulation model (IPSL-CM5A) and an ice sheet model (GRISLI), we investigate the transient evolution of Greenland ice sheet during the Pliocene to diagnose whether the ice sheet inception is an abrupt event or rather a cumulative process, involving waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. ReferencesBartoli, G., Hönisch, B., & Zeebe, R. E. (2011). Atmospheric CO2 decline during the Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations. Paleoceanography, 26(4). Contoux C, Dumas C, Ramstein G, Jost A, Dolan A. M. (2014) Modelling Greenland Ice sheet inception and sustainability during the late Pliocene. (in review for Earth and Planetary Science Letters.).Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., & Levrard, B. (2004). A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 428

  2. Relationship of Serum Vitamin D Concentrations and Allostatic Load as a Measure of Cumulative Biological Risk among the US Population: A Cross-Sectional Study

    PubMed Central

    Frei, Regina; Haile, Sarah R.; Mutsch, Margot; Rohrmann, Sabine

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The allostatic load (AL) index is a multi-systemic measure of physiologic dysregulation known to be associated with chronic exposure to stress and adverse health outcomes. We examined the relationship between AL and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration in non-institutionalized US adults. Methods Data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94) were used to calculate two versions of AL including 9 biomarkers and another two with 14 biomarkers (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, serum cholesterol, serum HDL-cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin, sex-specific waist-to-hip ratio, serum albumin, and serum C-reactive protein for AL1, and, additionally body mass index, serum triglyceride, serum creatinine, and serum herpes I & II antibodies for AL2), each set defined by predefined cut-offs or by quartiles. Serum vitamin D concentration was ranked into quartiles. Logistic regression, Poisson regression and linear regression were used to examine the association of serum 25(OH)D concentrations on AL, after adjusting for biological, physiological, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and health variables. Results Odds Ratios (OR) for high AL of the lowest 25(OH)D serum quartile were between 1.45 (95% CI: 1.28, 1.67) and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.39, 2.32) for the fully adjusted model, depending on AL version. Inverse relationships between vitamin D serum concentrations were observed for all AL versions and every adjustment. This relationship was consistent after stratification by sex, age or ethnic background. Sensitivity to low 25(OH)D concentrations was highest among the youngest group (20–39 years) with an OR of 2.11 (95% CI: 1.63, 2.73) for the lowest vitamin D quartile Q1. Conclusions Vitamin D had a consistent and statistically significant inverse association with all tested models of high AL, which remained consistent after adjusting for biological, socioeconomic, lifestyle and health variables. Our study

  3. The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

    PubMed

    Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

    2002-01-01

    This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

  4. Two new constraints for the cumulant matrix

    SciTech Connect

    Ramos-Cordoba, Eloy; Salvador, Pedro; Matito, Eduard; Piris, Mario

    2014-12-21

    We suggest new strict constraints that the two-particle cumulant matrix should fulfill. The constraints are obtained from the decomposition of 〈S-^{sup 2}〉, previously developed in our laboratory, and the vanishing number of electrons shared by two non-interacting fragments. The conditions impose stringent constraints into the cumulant structure without any need to perform an orbital optimization procedure thus carrying very small or no computational effort. These constraints are tested on the series of Piris natural orbital functionals (PNOF), which are among the most accurate ones available in the literature. Interestingly, even though all PNOF cumulants ensure correct overall 〈S{sup ^2}〉 values, none of them is consistent with the local spin structure of systems that dissociate more than one pair of electrons. A careful analysis of the local spin components reveals the most important missing contributions in the cumulant expression thus suggesting a means to improve PNOF5. The constraints provide an inexpensive tool for the construction and testing of cumulant structures that complement previously known conditions such as the N-representability or the square of the total spin angular momentum, 〈S{sup ^2}〉.

  5. Cumulative achievement testing: progress testing in reverse.

    PubMed

    Swanson, D B; Holtzman, K Z; Butler, A

    2010-01-01

    This collaborative project between the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) and Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) School of Medicine explored the design and use of cumulative achievement tests in basic science education. In cumulative achievement testing, integrative end-of-unit tests are deliberately constructed to systematically retest topics covered in previous units as well as material from the just-completed unit. CWRU faculty developed and administered a series of six web-based cumulative achievement tests using retired United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) step 1 test material and tools provided by NBME's Customized Assessment Services, and trends in student performance were examined as the new CWRU basic science curriculum unfolded. This article provides the background information about test design and administration, as well as samples of score reporting information for students and faculty. While firm conclusions about the effectiveness of cumulative achievement testing are not warranted after a pilot test at a single school, preliminary results suggest that cumulative achievement testing may be an effective complement to progress testing, with the former used to encourage retention of already-covered material and the latter used to assess growth toward the knowledge and skills expected of a graduating student.

  6. Bringing science into river systems cumulative effects assessment practice

    SciTech Connect

    Seitz, Nicole E.; Westbrook, Cherie J.; Noble, Bram F.

    2011-04-15

    Fast-paced watershed change, driven by anthropogenic development, is threatening the sustainability of freshwater resources across the globe. Developments within watersheds interact in a manner that is additive and synergistic over space and time. Such cumulative environmental effects are defined as the results of actions that are individually minor but collectively significant when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions. Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) then is broadly defined as the process of evaluating the potential impacts of such collective actions on the environment and is a requirement in many countries, including in Canada at the federal level under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. However, current approaches to CEA for river systems are proving to be ineffective, which is largely attributed to the disconnect between CEA science and practice. We highlight this gap herein by discussing contradictions in the CEA literature, challenges in quantifying cumulative interactions, including overcoming spatiotemporal scale issues, multiple hydrologic and ecological pathways, and lack of predictive analysis. Our analysis shows there is a need for improved CEA for river systems, and in responding to this need we propose a conceptual framework for better integrating science and practice for improved CEA for river systems using one of the most adversely affected rivers basins in Canada, the Athabasca River, as our model. We conclude by addressing the challenges inherent to CEA with the intent of providing scientists with ways to help improve CEA of river systems.

  7. Program for transfer research and impact studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rusnak, J. J.; Freeman, J. E.; Hartley, J. M.; Kottenstette, J. P.; Staskin, E. R.

    1973-01-01

    Research activities conducted under the Program for Transfer Research and Impact Studies (TRIS) during 1972 included: (1) preparation of 10,196 TSP requests for TRIS application analysis; (2) interviews with over 500 individuals concerning the technical, economic, and social impacts of NASA-generated technology; (3) preparation of 38 new technology transfer example files and 101 new transfer cases; and (4) maintenance of a technology transfer library containing more than 2,900 titles. Six different modes of technology utilization are used to illustrate the pervasiveness of the transfer and diffusion of aerospace innovations. These modes also provide a basis for distinguishing the unique characteristics of the NASA Technology Utilization Program. An examination is reported of the ways in which NASA-generated technology is contributing to beneficial social change in five major areas of human concern: health, environment, safety, transportation, and communication.

  8. Exact cumulant Kramers-Moyal-like expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgado, W. A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We derive an exact equation, a Cumulant Kramers-Moyal Equation (CKME), quite similar to the Kramers-Moyal Equation (KME), for the probability distribution of a Markovian dynamical system. It can be applied to any well behaved (converging cumulants) continuous time systems, such as Langevin equations or other models. An interesting but significant difference with respect to the KME is that their jump-moments are proportional to cumulants of the dynamical variables, but not proportional to central moments, as is the case for the KME. In fact, they still obey a weaker version of Pawula's theorem, namely Marcinkiewicz's theorem. We compare the results derived from the equations herein with the ones obtained by computing via Gaussian and biased, and unbiased, Poisson Langevin dynamics and a Poisson non-Langevin model. We obtain the exact CKME time-evolution equation for the systems, and in several cases, those are distinct from the Fokker-Planck equation or the KME.

  9. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  10. Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

    PubMed

    Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous.

  11. Aging and Cumulative Inequality: How Does Inequality Get Under the Skin?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferraro, Kenneth F.; Shippee, Tetyana Pylypiv

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: This article draws from cumulative disadvantage and life course theories to develop a new theory for the social scientific study of aging. Design and Methods: Five axioms of "cumulative inequality (CI) theory" are articulated to identify how life course trajectories are influenced by early and accumulated inequalities but can be modified…

  12. A Multimethodological Analysis of Cumulative Risk and Allostatic Load among Rural Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Gary W.

    2003-01-01

    This study modeled physical and psychosocial aspects of home environment and personal characteristics in a cumulative risk heuristic. Found that elevated cumulative risk was associated with heightened cardiovascular and neuroendocrine parameters, increased deposition of body fat, and higher summary index of total allostatic load. Replicated…

  13. Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

    PubMed Central

    Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Siqueira, Joao Bosco; Parente, Mirian Perpetua Palha Dias; Zara, Ana Laura de Sene Amancio; Oliveira, Consuelo Silva; Braga, Cynthia; Pimenta, Fabiano Geraldo; Cortes, Fanny; Lopez, Juan Guillermo; Bahia, Luciana Ribeiro; Mendes, Marcia Costa Ooteman; da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado; de Siqueira Filha, Noemia Teixeira; Constenla, Dagna; de Souza, Wayner Vieira

    2015-01-01

    Background Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. Methods We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients’ medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL). Results We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012–2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349–590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904–1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009–2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013). Conclusions The economic burden

  14. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-07

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  15. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  16. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-01-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke. PMID:28167816

  17. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  18. Calculation of the Poisson cumulative distribution function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Nolty, Robert G.; Scheuer, Ernest M.

    1990-01-01

    A method for calculating the Poisson cdf (cumulative distribution function) is presented. The method avoids computer underflow and overflow during the process. The computer program uses this technique to calculate the Poisson cdf for arbitrary inputs. An algorithm that determines the Poisson parameter required to yield a specified value of the cdf is presented.

  19. Pavlovian conditioning and cumulative reinforcement rate.

    PubMed

    Harris, Justin A; Patterson, Angela E; Gharaei, Saba

    2015-04-01

    In 5 experiments using delay conditioning of magazine approach with rats, reinforcement rate was varied either by manipulating the mean interval between onset of the conditioned stimulus (CS) and unconditioned stimulus (US) or by manipulating the proportion of CS presentations that ended with the US (trial-based reinforcement rate). Both manipulations influenced the acquisition of responding. In each experiment, a specific comparison was made between 2 CSs that differed in their mean CS-US interval and in their trial-based reinforcement rate, such that the cumulative reinforcement rate-the cumulative duration of the CS between reinforcements-was the same for the 2 CSs. For example, a CS reinforced on 100% of trials with a mean CS-US interval of 60 s was compared with a CS reinforced on 33% of trials and a mean duration of 20 s. Across the 5 experiments, conditioning was virtually identical for the 2 CSs with matched cumulative reinforcement rate. This was true as long as the timing of the US was unpredictable and, thus, response rates were uniform across the length of the CS. We conclude that the effects of CS-US interval and of trial-based reinforcement rate are reducible entirely to their common effect on cumulative reinforcement rate. We discuss the implications of this for rate-based, trial-based, and real-time associative models of conditioning.

  20. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  1. Aerospace Medicine and Biology: 1983 cumulative index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    This publication is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in the Supplements 242 through 253 of Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A Continuing Bibliography. It includes six indexes--subject, personal author, corporate source, contract number, report number, and accession number.

  2. Incorporating cumulative effects into environmental assessments of mariculture: Limitations and failures of current siting methods

    SciTech Connect

    King, Sarah C. Pushchak, Ronald

    2008-11-15

    Assessing and evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple marine aquaculture facilities has proved difficult in environmental assessment. A retrospective review of 23 existing mariculture farms in southwestern New Brunswick was conducted to determine whether cumulative interactions would have justified site approvals. Based on current scientific evidence of cumulative effects, six new criteria were added to a set of far-field impacts and other existing criteria were expanded to include regional and cumulative environmental impacts in Hargrave's [Hargrave BT. A traffic light decision system for marine finfish aquaculture siting. Ocean Coast Manag 2002; 45:215-35.] Traffic Light Decision Support System (DSS) presently used in Canadian aquaculture environmental assessments. Before mitigation, 19 of the 23 sites failed the amended set of criteria and after considering mitigation, 8 sites failed. Site and ecosystem indices yielded varying site acceptability scores; however, many sites would not have been approved if siting decisions had been made within a regional management framework and cumulative impact criteria were considered in the site evaluation process.

  3. Key Fish and Wildlife Species and Habitats in the Columbia River Basin Potentially Affected in a Cumulative Manner by Hydroelectric Development, 1985 Final Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Stull, Elizabeth Ann

    1985-09-30

    This final report summarizes the results of Task 1, which was the development of a list of key fish and wildlife species and habitat types that could potentially be impacted by hydroelectric development in a cumulative manner. Information developed in Task 1 is to be utilized in other tasks to identify specific pathways of cumulative effects, to assess current cumulative impact assessment methodologies, and to recommend alternative approaches for use in the Columbia River Basin. 58 refs., 17 tabs.

  4. An Economic Impact Study: How and Why To Do One.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graefe, Martin; Wells, Matt

    1996-01-01

    An economic impact study tells the community about a camp's contribution, and is good advertising. Describes an economic impact study and its benefits. Uses Concordia Language Villages' study to illustrate features of an impact study, including goals and scope, parameters and assumptions, statistical information, research methodology, review…

  5. Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2013-12-01

    We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

  6. Quantitative cumulative biodistribution of antibodies in mice

    PubMed Central

    Yip, Victor; Palma, Enzo; Tesar, Devin B; Mundo, Eduardo E; Bumbaca, Daniela; Torres, Elizabeth K; Reyes, Noe A; Shen, Ben Q; Fielder, Paul J; Prabhu, Saileta; Khawli, Leslie A; Boswell, C Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) plays an important and well-known role in antibody recycling in endothelial and hematopoietic cells and thus it influences the systemic pharmacokinetics (PK) of immunoglobulin G (IgG). However, considerably less is known about FcRn’s role in the metabolism of IgG within individual tissues after intravenous administration. To elucidate the organ distribution and gain insight into the metabolism of humanized IgG1 antibodies with different binding affinities FcRn, comparative biodistribution studies in normal CD-1 mice were conducted. Here, we generated variants of herpes simplex virus glycoprotein D-specific antibody (humanized anti-gD) with increased and decreased FcRn binding affinity by genetic engineering without affecting antigen specificity. These antibodies were expressed in Chinese hamster ovary cell lines, purified and paired radiolabeled with iodine-125 and indium-111. Equal amounts of I-125-labeled and In-111-labeled antibodies were mixed and intravenously administered into mice at 5 mg/kg. This approach allowed us to measure both the real-time IgG uptake (I-125) and cumulative uptake of IgG and catabolites (In-111) in individual tissues up to 1 week post-injection. The PK and distribution of the wild-type IgG and the variant with enhanced binding for FcRn were largely similar to each other, but vastly different for the rapidly cleared low-FcRn-binding variant. Uptake in individual tissues varied across time, FcRn binding affinity, and radiolabeling method. The liver and spleen emerged as the most concentrated sites of IgG catabolism in the absence of FcRn protection. These data provide an increased understanding of FcRn’s role in antibody PK and catabolism at the tissue level. PMID:24572100

  7. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    PubMed

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism.

  8. Cumulative blood lead levels and neurobehavioral test performance.

    PubMed

    Chia, S E; Chia, H P; Ong, C N; Jeyaratnam, J

    1997-01-01

    The current scientific literature provides inadequate evidence to conclude whether or not cumulative exposure to or absorption of lead adversely affects performance in neurobehavioral tests in adults. One of reasons for this controversy is the lack of studies with good cumulative exposure to or dose of lead. The aims of this study are to compare the neurobehavioral test performances of a group of lead-exposed workers and a referent group, and to study the association of the neurobehavioral test performances with concurrent blood lead levels and cumulative blood lead levels. Fifty lead battery workers and 97 non-exposed (referent) workers from a vehicle maintenance workshop were evaluated on their neurobehavioral performance using the World Health Organization Neurobehavioral Core Test Battery (WHO-NCTB). The geometric mean concurrent blood lead (ConPb) of the exposed and referent groups were 37.1 (range 13.2-64.6) microg/100 ml and 6.1 (range 2.4-12.4) microg/100 ml, respectively. Cumulative blood lead (CumPb) was defined as area under the curve for the number of years each worker was exposed to lead (three workers previous blood lead results were not available). ConPb and CumPb were used to study the association with the neurobehavioral test results. The exposed group had significantly poorer manual dexterity, perceptual-motor speed, and motor steadiness compared with the referents. The standardized partial regression coefficients were higher for CumPb than ConPb for most of the neurobehavioral test results. In the group >35 years old, there were significantly stronger associations between CumPb and Digit Symbol and Trail Making Part A results than for ConPb which are tests of perceptual and motor skills. CumPb was a better predictor than ConPb of the effects of lead on neurobehavioral performances.

  9. Downstream cumulative effects of land use on freshwater communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuglerová, L.; Kielstra, B. W.; Moore, D.; Richardson, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Many streams and rivers are subject to disturbance from intense land use such as urbanization and agriculture, and this is especially obvious for small headwaters. Streams are spatially organized into networks where headwaters represent the tributaries and provide water, nutrients, and organic material to the main stems. Therefore perturbations within the headwaters might be cumulatively carried on downstream. Although we know that the disturbance of headwaters in urban and agricultural landscapes poses threats to downstream river reaches, the magnitude and severity of these changes for ecological communities is less known. We studied stream networks along a gradient of disturbance connected to land use intensity, from urbanized watersheds to watersheds placed in agricultural settings in the Greater Toronto Area. Further, we compared the patterns and processes found in the modified watershed to a control watershed, situated in a forested, less impacted landscape. Preliminary results suggest that hydrological modifications (flash floods), habitat loss (drainage and sewer systems), and water quality issues of small streams in urbanized and agricultural watersheds represent major disturbances and threats for aquatic and riparian biota on local as well as larger spatial scales. For example, communities of riparian plants are dominated by species typical of the land use on adjacent uplands as well as the dominant land use on the upstream contributing area, instead of riparian obligates commonly found in forested watersheds. Further, riparian communities in disturbed environments are dominated by invasive species. The changes in riparian communities are vital for various functions of riparian vegetation. Bank erosion control is suppressed, leading to severe channel transformations and sediment loadings in urbanized watersheds. Food sources for instream biota and thermal regimes are also changed, which further triggers alterations of in-stream biological communities

  10. Booster propulsion/vehicle impact study, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, P.; Satterthwaite, S.; Carson, C.; Schnackel, J.

    1988-01-01

    This is the final report in a study examining the impact of launch vehicles for various boost propulsion design options. These options included: differing boost phase engines using different combinations of fuels and coolants to include RP-1, methane, propane (subcooled and normal boiling point), and hydrogen; variable and high mixture ratio hydrogen engines; translating nozzles on boost phase engines; and cross feeding propellants from the booster to second stage. Vehicles examined included a fully reusable two stage cargo vehicle and a single stage to orbit vehicle. The use of subcooled propane as a fuel generated vehicles with the lowest total vehicle dry mass. Engines with hydrogen cooling generated only slight mass reductions from the reference, all-hydrogen vehicle. Cross feeding propellants generated the most significant mass reductions from the reference two stage vehicle. The use of high mixture ratio or variable mixture ratio hydrogen engines in the boost phase of flight resulted in vehicles with total dry mass 20 percent greater than the reference hydrogen vehicle. Translating nozzles for boost phase engines generated a heavier vehicle. Also examined were the design impacts on the vehicle and ground support subsystems when subcooled propane is used as a fuel. The most significant cost difference between facilities to handle normal boiling point versus subcooled propane is 5 million dollars. Vehicle cost differences were negligible. A significant technical challenge exists for properly conditioning the vehicle propellant on the ground and in flight when subcooled propane is used as fuel.

  11. Relaxation of quantum systems weakly coupled to a bath. II. Formal analysis of the total-time-ordering-cumulant and partial-time-ordering-cumulant spectral line shapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bretón, J.; Hardisson, A.; Mauricio, F.; Velasco, S.

    1984-07-01

    Given a quantum system of a few degrees of freedom in weak interaction with a bath, the expressions which connect its total-time-ordering-cumulant and partial-time-ordering-cumulant relaxation with the corresponding spectral line shapes of dipolar absorption are deduced. For simplicity we consider a system with a nondegenerate and nonequidistant energy spectrum. A special study in the cases of isolated resonances and of a weak interference effect between resonances is made.

  12. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  13. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-02-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  14. Cumulative risk and asthma outcomes in inner-city African-American youth.

    PubMed

    Josie, Katherine Leigh; Greenley, Rachel Neff; Drotar, Dennis

    2007-09-01

    A cumulative risk framework was used to examine the impact of the presence of multiple risk factors on key asthma outcomes (i.e., health-related quality of life [HRQoL], severity) for a sample of 149 inner-city African-American youth with asthma. The presence of a greater number of risk factors was associated with lower HRQoL and greater severity, regardless of age or gender. Cumulative risk methodology, in combination with selection of risk factors based on theoretical and empirical work, is a viable option for researchers and clinicians who are interested in examining the impact of multiple risk factors on disease functioning and status.

  15. Automation impact study of Army Training Management

    SciTech Connect

    Sanquist, T.F.; Schuller, C.R.; McCallum, M.C.; Underwood, J.A.; Bettin, P.J.; King, J.L.; Melber, B.D.; Hostick, C.J.; Seaver, D.A.

    1988-01-01

    The main objectives of this impact study were to identify the potential cost savings associated with automated Army Training Management (TM), and to perform a cost-benefit analysis for an Army-wide automated TM system. A subsidiary goal was to establish baseline data for an independent evaluation of a prototype Integrated Training Management System (ITMS), to be tested in the fall of 1988. A structured analysis of TM doctrine was performed for comparison with empirical data gathered in a job analysis survey of selected units of the 9ID (MTZ) at Ft. Lewis, Washington. These observations will be extended to other units in subsequent surveys. The survey data concerning staffing levels and amount of labor expended on eight distinct TM tasks were analyzed in a cost effectiveness model. The main results of the surveys and cost effectiveness modelling are summarized. 18 figs., 47 tabs.

  16. Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS.

  17. Cumulative risk assessment of pesticide residues in food.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R; Ossendorp, Bernadette C; Banasiak, Ursula; Hamey, Paul Y; Sebestyen, Istvan; Moretto, Angelo

    2008-08-15

    of reporting need to be agreed. A number of probabilistic models are available, but some of there are geographically constrained due to the underlying datasets used in their construction. Guidance on probabilistic modelling needs to be finalised. Cumulative risk assessments have been performed in a number of countries, on organophosphate insecticides alone (USA) or together with carbamates (UK, DK, NL), triazines, chloroacetanilides, carbamates alone (USA), and all pesticides (DE). All identifiable assumptions and uncertainties should be tabulated and evaluated, at least qualitatively. Those likely to have a major impact on the outcome of the assessment should be examined quantitatively. In cumulative risk assessment, it is necessary, as in other risk assessments, for risk managers to consider what level of risk would be considered "acceptable", for example what percentile of the population should be below the reference value. Criteria for prioritising CAGs for cumulative risk assessment include frequency of detection in monitoring programmes, high usage, high exposure relative to the reference value, large number of compounds (e.g. five or more) in a group.

  18. Avoiding Program-Induced Cumulative Overload (PICO).

    PubMed

    Orr, Robin; Knapik, Joseph J; Pope, Rodney

    2016-01-01

    This article defines the concept of program-induced cumulative overload (PICO), provides examples, and advises ways to mitigate the adverse effects. PICO is the excessive cumulative physical workload that can be imparted to military personnel by a military training program with an embedded physical training component. PICO can be acute (accumulating within a single day) or chronic (accumulating across the entirety of the program) and results in adverse outcomes for affected personnel, including detrimental fatigue, performance degradation, injuries, or illness. Strategies to mitigate PICO include focusing administration and logistic practices during the development and ongoing management of a trainee program and implementing known musculoskeletal injury prevention strategies. More training is not always better, and trainers need to consider the total amount of physical activity that military personnel experience across both operational training and physical training if PICO is to be mitigated.

  19. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jotzo, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2014-10-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.

  20. Cumulative knowledge and progress in human factors.

    PubMed

    Proctor, Robert W; Vu, Kim-Phuong L

    2010-01-01

    This review provides a cumulative perspective on current human factors research by first briefly acknowledging previous Annual Review articles. We show that several recent conceptual advances are an outgrowth of the information-processing approach adopted by the field and present several areas of current research that are built directly on prior work. Topic areas that provide fundamental tools for human factors analyses are summarized, and several current application areas are reviewed. We end by considering alternatives to the information-processing approach that have been proposed and placing those alternatives in context. We argue that the information-processing language provides the foundation that has enabled much of the growth in human factors. This growth reflects a cumulative development of concepts and methods that continues today.

  1. Cumulative Index to NASA Tech Briefs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1969-01-01

    Tech Briefs are short announcements of new technology derived from the R&D activities of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This Index to NASA Tech Briefs lists the technological innovations derived from the U.S. space program and published during the period January through December 1968. A new five year cycle of cumulative indexes begins with this index. The main section is arranged in six categories: Electrical (Electronic); Physical Sciences (Energy Sources); Materials (Chemistry); Life Sciences; Mechanical; and Computer Programs.

  2. Introduction to cumulative meta-analysis in dentistry: lessons learned from undertaking a cumulative meta-analysis in periodontology.

    PubMed

    Moles, D R; Needleman, I G; Niederman, R; Lau, J

    2005-04-01

    Improving health and well-being from the consideration of isolated studies is problematic. Systematic reviews have been developed to address this problem and may include a quantitative data synthesis in the form of a meta-analysis, or a cumulative meta-analysis. The value of systematic reviews depends greatly on the availability and quality of the results of primary research. The objective of the current project was to demonstrate the technique of cumulative meta-analysis in dentistry using data from a previously published systematic review. The process highlights an issue that some trials could not be synthesized due to the lack of reporting of measures of variation. This represents a potential source of bias. Investigators are encouraged to consider their trials as part of an information continuum and to report sufficient detail to permit the trials' incorporation into subsequent syntheses.

  3. Experimental study on impact disruption of porous asteroids: Effects of oblique impact and multiple collisions on impact strength

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yasui, Minami; Takano, Shota; Matsue, Kazuma; Arakawa, Masahiko

    2015-08-01

    Most of asteroids would have pores and a plenty of pre-cracks in their interiors, and the pre-cracks could be formed by multiple impacts at various impact angles. Porosity and pre-cracks are important physical properties controlling the impact strength. Okamoto and Arakawa (2009) did impact experiments of porous gypsum spheres to obtain the impact strength of porous asteroids, but they carried out only single impact experiments on the same target at head-on. In this study, we conducted oblique impact and multiple impacts on porous gypsum and examined the effects of impact angle and pre-cracks on the impact strength.We carried out impact experiments by using the one-stage He gas gun and the two-stage H2 gas gun at Kobe University. The impact velocities were <200 m/s (low-vi) and >3 km/s (high-vi). Targets were porous gypsum spheres with the porosity of 55% and the diameters of 7 or 12 cm. The projectiles were a porous gypsum sphere with the diameter of 2.5 cm at low-vi or a polycarbonate sphere with the diameter of 4.7 cm at high-vi. The impact angle changed from 15° to 90°, and the projectile was impacted on the same target for 2-15 times. The impact phenomena were observed by a high-speed digital video camera to measure the fragment velocities.The oblique impact experiments showed that the impact strength did not depend on the impact angle θ between 45° and 90°, and obtained to be ~2000 J/kg, while it drastically changed at the θ from 15° to 30°. We reanalyzed our results by using the effective energy density defined as Qsin2θ, where Q is the energy density, and found that most of the results were consistent with the results of head-on impacts. The multiple impacts showed that the impact strength of pre-impacted targets was larger than that of intact targets in the case of low-vi. This might be caused by the compaction of the target surface. In the case of high-vi, the impact strength of pre-impacted targets was smaller than that of intact targets. This

  4. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  5. Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ladrem, M.; Ahmed, M. A. A.; Alfull, Z. Z.; Cherif, S.

    2015-09-01

    Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T0(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L_{mn}-method. The first six cumulants C_{1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ kurtosis κ , pentosis \\varPi _{± }, and hexosis {H}_{1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, ({O}={{σ }2 {κ } }{{Σ }^{-1} }, {U} ={{σ }^{-2} {Σ }^{-1} }, {N} = {σ }2 {κ }) are calculated and studied as functions of ( T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed. A numerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T0(V) agrees with that expected T0N(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ T( T,V) , according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2 %. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable.

  6. Legal Impact Studies: Golden Oldies and Today's Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lufler, Henry S., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Contemporary scholars researching the courts' impact on schools would profit from examining the well-funded studies conducted in the 1960s and early 1970s. This article discusses the substance of early judicial impact research and explores its relevance for today. Most 1960s impact studies dealt with United States Supreme Court decisions in three…

  7. A Manual for Conducting Environmental Impact Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walton, L. Ellis, Jr.; And Others

    This report presents methodologies for measuring the anticipated environmental impact of proposed highways at the conceptual, location, and design planning stages. An interdisciplinary team approach is recommended. The research emphasizes the systematic collection and evaluation of data on various types of impacts, including those related to…

  8. The cumulative effect of convergent seismic waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guglielmi, A. V.

    2015-11-01

    This methodical note is devoted to the nonlinear impact of convergent seismic waves on a medium. Special attention is paid to the similarity and distinctions of the phenomena occurring in the Earth, on one hand, and on the Moon and Mercury, on the other hand. The importance of the experimental and theoretical study of the round-the-world seismic echo which induces repeated shocks in the epicentral zones of the earthquakes is noted.

  9. Cumulative risk of second primary contralateral breast cancer in BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers with a first breast cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Molina-Montes, Esther; Pérez-Nevot, Beatriz; Pollán, Marina; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Espín, Jaime; Sánchez, María-José

    2014-12-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers are at a higher risk of breast cancer and of subsequent contralateral breast cancer (CBC). This study aims to evaluate the evidence of the effect of the BRCA1/2-carriership on CBC cumulative risk in female breast cancer patients. The literature was searched in Pubmed and Embase up to June 2013 for studies on CBC risk after a first primary invasive breast cancer in female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. A qualitative synthesis was carried out and the methodological quality of the studies evaluated. Cumulative risks of CBC after 5, 10 and 15 years since the first breast cancer diagnosis were pooled by BRCA1/2 mutation status. A total number of 20 articles, out of 1324 retrieved through the search, met the inclusion criteria: 18 retrospective and 2 prospective cohort studies. Cumulative risks of up to five studies were pooled. The cumulative 5-years risk of CBC for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers was 15% (95% CI: 9.5%-20%) and 9% (95% CI: 5%-14%), respectively. This risk increases with time since diagnosis of the first breast cancer; the 10-years risk increased up to 27% and 19%, respectively. The 5-years cumulative risk was remarkably lower in non-BRCA carriers (3%; 95% CI: 2%-5%) and remained so over subsequent years (5%; 95% CI: 3%-7%). In conclusion, risk of CBC increases with length of time after the first breast cancer diagnosis in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Studies addressing the impact of treatment-related factors and clinical characteristics of the first breast cancer on this risk are warranted.

  10. Cumulative Disadvantage and Youth Well-Being: A Multi-Domain Examination with Life Course Implications

    PubMed Central

    Nurius, Paula S.; Prince, Dana M.; Rocha, Anita

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The accumulation of disadvantage has been shown to increase psychosocial stressors that impact life course well-being. This study tests for significant differences, based on disadvantage exposure, on youths’ emotional and physical health, as well as family supports, peer assets, and academic success, which hold potential for resilience and amelioration of negative health outcomes. Methods A 12 item cumulative disadvantage summed index derived from surveys of a racially and socioeconomically diverse sample of urban high school seniors (n=9,658) was used to distinguish youth at low, moderate, and high levels. Results Findings supported hypothesized stepped patterns such that as multiple disadvantages accumulate, a concomitant decline is evident across the assessed outcome variables (except positive academic identity). Post-hoc tests indicated a pattern of groups being significantly different from one another. Discussion Overall, results lend support for an additive stress load associated with stacked disadvantage, with implications for continuing trends into adulthood as well as preventive interventions PMID:26617431

  11. Impact craters: An ice study on Rhea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalle Ore, Cristina M.; Cruikshank, Dale P.; Mastrapa, Rachel M. E.; Lewis, Emma; White, Oliver L.

    2015-11-01

    The goal of this project is to study the properties of H2O ice in the environment of the Saturn satellites and in particular to measure the relative amounts of crystalline and amorphous H2O ice in and around two craters on Rhea. The craters are remnants of cataclysmic events that, by raising the local temperature, melted the ice, which subsequently crystallized. Based on laboratory experiments it is expected that, when exposed to ion bombardment at the temperatures typical of the Saturn satellites, the crystalline structure of the ice will be broken, resulting in the disordered, amorphous phase. We therefore expect the ice in and around the craters to be partially crystalline and partially amorphous. We have designed a technique that estimates the relative amounts of crystalline and amorphous H2O ice based on measurements of the distortion of the 2-μm spectral absorption band. The technique is best suited for planetary surfaces that are predominantly icy, but works also for surfaces slightly contaminated with other ices and non-ice components. We apply the tool to two areas around the Inktomi and the Obatala craters. The first is a young impact crater on the leading hemisphere of Rhea, the second is an older one on the trailing hemisphere. For each crater we obtain maps of the fraction of crystalline ice, which were overlain onto Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) images of the satellite searching for correlations between crystallinity and geography. For both craters the largest fractions of crystalline ice are in the center, as would be intuitively expected since the 'ground zero' areas should be most affected by the effects of the impact. The overall distribution of the crystalline ice fraction maps the shape of the crater and, in the case of Inktomi, of the rays. The Inktomi crater ranges between a maximum fraction of 67% crystalline ice to a minimum of 39%. The Obatala crater varies between a maximum of 51% and a minimum of 33%. Based on simplifying assumptions

  12. Assessing the cumulative environmental effects of marine renewable energy developments: Establishing common ground.

    PubMed

    Willsteed, Edward; Gill, Andrew B; Birchenough, Silvana N R; Jude, Simon

    2017-01-15

    Assessing and managing the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment remains a major challenge to sustainable development. This challenge is highlighted by the worldwide expansion of marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) in areas already subject to multiple activities and climate change. Cumulative effects assessments in theory provide decision makers with adequate information about how the environment will respond to the incremental effects of licensed activities and are a legal requirement in many nations. In practise, however, such assessments are beset by uncertainties resulting in substantial delays during the licensing process that reduce MRED investor confidence and limit progress towards meeting climate change targets. In light of these targets and ambitions to manage the marine environment sustainably, reducing the uncertainty surrounding MRED effects and cumulative effects assessment are timely and vital. This review investigates the origins and evolution of cumulative effects assessment to identify why the multitude of approaches and pertinent research have emerged, and discusses key considerations and challenges relevant to assessing the cumulative effects of MREDs and other activities on ecosystems. The review recommends a shift away from the current reliance on disparate environmental impact assessments and limited strategic environmental assessments, and a move towards establishing a common system of coordinated data and research relative to ecologically meaningful areas, focussed on the needs of decision makers tasked with protecting and conserving marine ecosystems and services.

  13. Study of the Phenomena of Hypervelocity Impact

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1963-06-01

    4.4 Fig. 4A. 3 Multiple-Sheet Target Impacted by 3/16-In. Aluminum Sphere at 5. 4 km/sec ......................... 4.6 Fig. 4A. 4 X - Ray ...mentioned previ- ously. Shadowgraph stations, velocity screens, and high-speed framing cameras have recorded projectile velocities. Flash X - ray units...4 which shows a series of flash X - ray pictures of impacts under various conditions. The thin target, or shield, has effectively fragmented the

  14. Language Delay in Severely Neglected Children: A Cumulative or Specific Effect of Risk Factors?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sylvestre, Audette; Merette, Chantal

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: This research sought to determine if the language delay (LD) of severely neglected children under 3 years old was better explained by a cumulative risk model or by the specificity of risk factors. The objective was also to identify the risk factors with the strongest impact on LD among various biological, psychological, and…

  15. Climate mitigation: sustainable preferences and cumulative carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckle, Simon

    2010-05-01

    We develop a stylized AK growth model with both climate damages to ecosystem goods and services and sustainable preferences that allow trade-offs between present discounted utility and long-run climate damages. The simplicity of the model permits analytical solutions. Concern for the long-term provides a strong driver for mitigation action. One plausible specification of sustainable preferences leads to the result that, for a range of initial parameter values, an optimizing agent would choose a level of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions independent of initial production capital endowment and CO2 levels. There is no technological change so, for economies with sufficiently high initial capital and CO2 endowments, optimal mitigation will lead to disinvestment. For lower values of initial capital and/or CO2 levels, positive investment can be optimal, but still within the same overall level of cumulative emissions. One striking aspect of the model is the complexity of possible outcomes, in addition to these optimal solutions. We also identify a resource constrained region and several regions where climate damages exceed resources available for consumption. Other specifications of sustainable preferences are discussed, as is the case of a hard constraint on long-run damages. Scientists are currently highlighting the potential importance of the cumulative carbon emissions concept as a robust yet flexible target for climate policymakers. This paper shows that it also has an ethical interpretation: it embodies an implicit trade off in global welfare between present discounted welfare and long-term climate damages. We hope that further development of the ideas presented here might contribute to the research and policy debate on the critical areas of intra- and intergenerational welfare.

  16. Oil spill characterization in the hybrid polarity SAR domain using log-cumulants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Espeseth, Martine M.; Skrunes, Stine; Brekke, Camilla; Salberg, Arnt-Børre; Jones, Cathleen E.; Holt, Benjamin

    2016-10-01

    Log-cumulants have proven to be an interesting tool for evaluating the statistical properties of potential oil spills in polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data within the common horizontal (H) and vertical (V) polarization basis. The use of first, second, and third order sample log-cumulants has shown potential for evaluating the texture and the statistical distributions, as well as discriminating oil from look-alikes. Log-cumulants are cumulants derived in the log-domain and can be applied to both single-polarization and multipolarization SAR data. This study is the first to investigate the differences between hybrid-polarity (HP) and full-polarimetric (FP) modes based on the sample log-cumulants of various oil slicks and open water from nine Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) scenes acquired off the coast of Norway in 2015. The sample log-cumulants calculated from the HP intensities show similar statistical behavior to the FP ones, resulting in a similar interpretation of the sample log-cumulants from HP and FP. Approximately eight hours after release the sample log-cumulants representing emulsion slicks have become more similar to the open water compared to plant oil. We find that the sample log-cumulants of the various oil slicks and open water varies between the scenes and also between the slicks and open water. This might be due to changes in ocean and wind condition, the initial slick properties, and/or the difference in the weathering process of the oil slicks.

  17. Is there any cumulative dose for trastuzumab?

    PubMed

    Mutlu, Hasan; Coşkun, Hasan Şenol

    2015-12-01

    Trastuzumab is one of the most important agents that target human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, but its cardiotoxic effect limits to use it. The mechanism of cardiac dysfunction-related trastuzumab is still unclear. In literature, there is no definite information about the cumulative dose of trastuzumab for cardiotoxicity. In presented case, we reported a breast cancer patient who has been receiving long-term trastuzumab. We have not found any cardiac problems for duration of over four years. According to our case and literature review, we may say that trastuzumab is safely used with periodically echocardiographic control in patients with breast cancer.

  18. What Can Epidemiological Studies Tell Us about the Impact of Chemical Mixtures on Human Health?

    PubMed Central

    Braun, Joseph M.; Gennings, Chris; Hauser, Russ; Webster, Thomas F.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Humans are exposed to a large number of environmental chemicals: Some of these may be toxic, and many others have unknown or poorly characterized health effects. There is intense interest in determining the impact of exposure to environmental chemical mixtures on human health. As the study of mixtures continues to evolve in the field of environmental epidemiology, it is imperative that we understand the methodologic challenges of this research and the types of questions we can address using epidemiological data. In this article, we summarize some of the unique challenges in exposure assessment, statistical methods, and methodology that epidemiologists face in addressing chemical mixtures. We propose three broad questions that epidemiological studies can address: a) What are the potential health impacts of individual chemical agents? b) What is the interaction among agents? And c) what are the health effects of cumulative exposure to multiple agents? As the field of mixtures research grows, we can use these three questions as a basis for defining our research questions and for developing methods that will help us better understand the effect of chemical exposures on human disease and well-being. PMID:26720830

  19. A Missing Link in the Evolution of the Cumulative Recorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Asano, Toshio; Lattal, Kennon A.

    2012-01-01

    A recently recovered cumulative recorder provides a missing link in the evolution of the cumulative recorder from a modified kymograph to a reliably operating, scientifically and commercially successful instrument. The recorder, the only physical evidence of such an early precommercial cumulative recorder yet found, was sent to Keio University in…

  20. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2007

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Putman, Douglas A.; Roegner, G. C.; Russell, Micah; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John

    2008-10-01

    The goal of this multi-year study (2004-2010) is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the lower Columbia River and estuary. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. Field research in 2005, 2006, and 2007 involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp vs. marsh), trajectory (restoration vs. reference site), and restoration action (tide gate vs. culvert vs. dike breach). The field work established two kinds of monitoring indicators for eventual cumulative effects analysis: core and higher-order indicators. Management implications of limitations and applications of site-specific effectiveness monitoring and cumulative effects analysis were identified.

  1. Cumulative Risk Assessment in the Lorraine Region: A Framework to Characterize Environmental Health Inequalities.

    PubMed

    Caudeville, Julien; Ioannidou, Despoina; Boulvert, Emmanuelle; Bonnard, Roseline

    2017-03-10

    The study explores spatial data processing methods and the associated impact on the characterization and quantification of a combined health risk indicator at a regional scale and at fine resolution. To illustrate the methodology of combining multiple publicly available data sources, we present a case study of the Lorraine region (France), where regional stakeholders were involved in the global procedures for data collection and organization. Different indicators are developed by combining technical approaches for assessing and characterizing human health exposure to chemical substances (in soil, air and water) and noise risk factors. The results permit identification of pollutant sources, determinants of exposure, and potential hotspot areas. A test of the model's assumptions to changes in sub-indicator spatial distribution showed the impact of data transformation on identifying more impacted areas. Cumulative risk assessment permits the combination of quantitative and qualitative evaluation of health risks by including stakeholders in the decision process, helping to define a subjective conceptual analysis framework or assumptions when uncertainties or knowledge gaps operate.

  2. Cumulative Risk Assessment in the Lorraine Region: A Framework to Characterize Environmental Health Inequalities

    PubMed Central

    Caudeville, Julien; Ioannidou, Despoina; Boulvert, Emmanuelle; Bonnard, Roseline

    2017-01-01

    The study explores spatial data processing methods and the associated impact on the characterization and quantification of a combined health risk indicator at a regional scale and at fine resolution. To illustrate the methodology of combining multiple publicly available data sources, we present a case study of the Lorraine region (France), where regional stakeholders were involved in the global procedures for data collection and organization. Different indicators are developed by combining technical approaches for assessing and characterizing human health exposure to chemical substances (in soil, air and water) and noise risk factors. The results permit identification of pollutant sources, determinants of exposure, and potential hotspot areas. A test of the model’s assumptions to changes in sub-indicator spatial distribution showed the impact of data transformation on identifying more impacted areas. Cumulative risk assessment permits the combination of quantitative and qualitative evaluation of health risks by including stakeholders in the decision process, helping to define a subjective conceptual analysis framework or assumptions when uncertainties or knowledge gaps operate. PMID:28287441

  3. Innovativeness, population size and cumulative cultural evolution.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Aoki, Kenichi

    2012-08-01

    Henrich [Henrich, J., 2004. Demography and cultural evolution: how adaptive cultural processes can produce maladaptive losses-the Tasmanian case. Am. Antiquity 69, 197-214] proposed a model designed to show that larger population size facilitates cumulative cultural evolution toward higher skill levels. In this model, each newborn attempts to imitate the most highly skilled individual of the parental generation by directly-biased social learning, but the skill level he/she acquires deviates probabilistically from that of the exemplar (cultural parent). The probability that the skill level of the imitator exceeds that of the exemplar can be regarded as the innovation rate. After reformulating Henrich's model rigorously, we introduce an overlapping-generations analog based on the Moran model and derive an approximate formula for the expected change per generation of the highest skill level in the population. For large population size, our overlapping-generations model predicts a much larger effect of population size than Henrich's discrete-generations model. We then investigate by way of Monte Carlo simulations the case where each newborn chooses as his/her exemplar the most highly skilled individual from among a limited number of acquaintances. When the number of acquaintances is small relative to the population size, we find that a change in the innovation rate contributes more than a proportional change in population size to the cumulative cultural evolution of skill level.

  4. Interplanetary proton cumulated fluence model update

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glover, A.; Hilgers, A.; Rosenqvist, L.; Bourdarie, S.

    2008-11-01

    Solar particle events leading to important increase of particle fluxes at energies of order of magnitude ranging from MeV to GeV constitute an important hazard for space missions. They may lead to effects seen in microelectronics or damage to solar cells and constitute a potential hazard for manned missions. Cumulative damage is commonly expressed as a function of fluence which is defined as the integral of the flux over time. A priori deterministic estimates of the expected fluence cannot be made because over the time scale of a space mission, the fluence can be dominated by the contribution of a few rare and unpredictable high intensity events. Therefore, statistical approaches are required in order to estimate fluences likely to be encountered by a space mission in advance. This paper extends work done by Rosenqvist et al. [Rosenqvist, L., Hilgers, A., Evans, H., Daly, E., Hapgood, M., Stamper, R., Zwickl, R., Bourdarie, S., Boscher, D. Toolkit for updating interplanetary proton-cumulated fluence models. J. Spacecraft Rockets, 42(6), 1077 1090, 2005] to describe an updated predictive engineering model for the proton interplanetary fluence with energies >30 MeV. This model is derived from a complete list of solar proton fluences based on data from a number of calibrated sources covering almost three solar cycles.

  5. Impact of Netbook Computers on One District's Social Studies Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schleicher, Joel L.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to collect and analyze quantitative and qualitative data to determine the overall impact of a pilot netbook initiative in five social studies classrooms. The researcher explored the impact on teaching and learning social studies with the primary source of curriculum delivery through one-to-one netbook computer access…

  6. Head Start Impact Study. Final Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Shapiro, Gary; Broene, Pam; Jenkins, Frank; Fletcher, Philip; Quinn, Liz; Friedman, Janet; Ciarico, Janet; Rohacek, Monica; Adams, Gina; Spier, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    This report addresses the following four questions by reporting on the impacts of Head Start on children and families during the children's preschool, kindergarten, and 1st grade years: (1) What difference does Head Start make to key outcomes of development and learning (and in particular, the multiple domains of school readiness) for low-income…

  7. Life cycle impact assessment of ammonia production in Algeria: A comparison with previous studies

    SciTech Connect

    Makhlouf, Ali Serradj, Tayeb; Cheniti, Hamza

    2015-01-15

    In this paper, a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) from “cradle to gate” of one anhydrous ton of ammonia with a purity of 99% was achieved. Particularly, the energy and environmental performance of the product (ammonia) were evaluated. The eco-profile of the product and the share of each stage of the Life Cycle on the whole environmental impacts have been evaluated. The flows of material and energy for each phase of the life cycle were counted and the associated environmental problems were identified. Evaluation of the impact was achieved using GEMIS 4.7 software. The primary data collection was executed at the production installations located in Algeria (Annaba locality). The analysis was conducted according to the LCA standards ISO 14040 series. The results show that Cumulative Energy Requirement (CER) is of 51.945 × 10{sup 3} MJ/t of ammonia, which is higher than the global average. Global Warming Potential (GWP) is of 1.44 t CO{sub 2} eq/t of ammonia; this value is lower than the world average. Tropospheric ozone precursor and Acidification are also studied in this article, their values are: 549.3 × 10{sup −6} t NMVOC eq and 259.3 × 10{sup −6} t SO{sub 2} eq respectively.

  8. Assessment of temporal hydrologic anomalies coupled with drought impact for a transboundary river flow regime: The Diyala watershed case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Faraj, Furat A. M.; Scholz, Miklas

    2014-09-01

    Recent increases in human activities in shared river basins have unquestionably raised concerns about potential hydrological impacts, especially impacts of dams and large-scale water withdrawal schemes in the highlands. Anthropogenic pressures twinned with drought impacts have exacerbated water management challenges. This article assesses the cumulative consequences of upstream anthropogenic pressures and drought spells on temporal river flow regimes for the downstream country. The size and complexity of problems confronting transboundary river watersheds makes it necessary to use a representative example basin to study the problems and potential solutions. The Diyala (Sīrvān) river basin, which shares dozens of transboundary watersheds between Iraq and Iran, has been selected as a representative case study. A subset of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) was utilised and climate variability was considered in assessing the combined effect of various forms of upstream human-river regulations and climatic conditions on natural flow regimes in the downstream state. Findings indicated that the anthropogenic river-regulation coupled with the impact of drought periods have noticeably modified the natural flow paradigm. The yearly average runoffs, which are no longer available for the downstream country, have soared to very high levels, particularly over the last fifteen years. More adverse impacts were detected in the non-rainy season. Findings reveal also that damming and considerable water diversion to large-scale irrigation projects in the upstream state are the main regulations affecting the management of shared water resources in the downstream country.

  9. Experimental studies of oblique impact. [of meteorites on planetary surfaces

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gault, D. E.; Wedekind, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Meteoritic materials most probably impact planetary bodies along oblique trajectories inclined less than 45 deg above their surfaces. Laboratory studies of hypervelocity impacts against rock and particulate media are presented that indicate important effects of obliquity on crater size, shape, and ejecta distribution. The effects are particularly important to crater size-frequency analyses and geologic interpretations of crater formations. Impacts at shallow incidence, which are not uncommon, lead to ricochet of the impacting object accompanied with some entrained excavated materials at velocities only slightly reduced from the pre-impact value.

  10. Do Holocaust survivors show increased vulnerability or resilience to post-Holocaust cumulative adversity?

    PubMed

    Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Shmotkin, Dov

    2010-06-01

    Prior trauma can hinder coping with additional adversity or inoculate against the effect of recurrent adversity. The present study further addressed this issue by examining whether a subsample of Holocaust survivors and comparison groups, drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, were differentially affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity. Post-Holocaust cumulative adversity had a stronger effect on the lifetime depression of Holocaust survivors than on that of comparisons. However, comparisons were more negatively affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity when examining markers of physical and cognitive functioning. Our findings suggest that previous trauma can both sensitize and immunize, as Holocaust survivors show general resilience intertwined with specific vulnerability when confronted with additional cumulative adversity.

  11. Impact penetration studies of graphite/epoxy laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sykes, G. F.; Stoakley, D. M.

    1980-01-01

    A study was conducted to provide an initial insight into the role of the matrix in impact energy absorption of graphite/epoxy laminates. A single epoxy system, NARMCO 5208, in both composite and cured neat-resin form was studied with a constant velocity impact test apparatus. The parameters investigated include resin cure temperature, fiber type, ply thickness and orientation, and impact velocity. The results from the study show that matrix chemistry, as obtained by cure temperature changes, has a significant effect upon the failure mode and energy absorption during impact.

  12. Cumulative stress in research animals: Telomere attrition as a biomarker in a welfare context?

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Progress in improving animal welfare is currently limited by the lack of objective methods for assessing lifetime experience. I propose that telomere attrition, a cellular biomarker of biological age, provides a molecular measure of cumulative experience that could be used to assess the welfare impact of husbandry regimes and/or experimental procedures on non‐human animals. I review evidence from humans that telomere attrition is accelerated by negative experiences in a cumulative and dose‐dependent manner, but that this attrition can be mitigated or even reversed by positive life‐style interventions. Evidence from non‐human animals suggests that despite some specific differences in telomere biology, stress‐induced telomere attrition is a robust phenomenon, occurring in a range of species including mice and chickens. I conclude that telomere attrition apparently integrates positive and negative experience in an accessible common currency that translates readily to novel species – the Holy Grail of a cumulative welfare indicator. PMID:26645576

  13. Cumulative stress in research animals: Telomere attrition as a biomarker in a welfare context?

    PubMed

    Bateson, Melissa

    2016-02-01

    Progress in improving animal welfare is currently limited by the lack of objective methods for assessing lifetime experience. I propose that telomere attrition, a cellular biomarker of biological age, provides a molecular measure of cumulative experience that could be used to assess the welfare impact of husbandry regimes and/or experimental procedures on non-human animals. I review evidence from humans that telomere attrition is accelerated by negative experiences in a cumulative and dose-dependent manner, but that this attrition can be mitigated or even reversed by positive life-style interventions. Evidence from non-human animals suggests that despite some specific differences in telomere biology, stress-induced telomere attrition is a robust phenomenon, occurring in a range of species including mice and chickens. I conclude that telomere attrition apparently integrates positive and negative experience in an accessible common currency that translates readily to novel species--the Holy Grail of a cumulative welfare indicator.

  14. Cumulative life course impairment: the imprint of psoriasis on the patient's life.

    PubMed

    Ros, S; Puig, L; Carrascosa, J M

    2014-03-01

    We now realize that moderate to severe psoriasis takes a toll on the patient's overall health beyond the effects on the skin itself, and so we use quality of life (QOL) measures to assess how the individual perceives both the impact of disease and the response to treatment. However, available instruments give us a cross-sectional assessment of QOL at a specific moment, and we lack longitudinal studies of how a disease affects each and every aspect of a patient's life over time-including physical and psychological wellbeing, social and emotional relationships, vocational and employment decisions, and how they change the individual's outlook. A new concept, cumulative life course impairment (CLCI), captures the notion of the ongoing effect of a disease, providing us with a new paradigm for assessing the impact of psoriasis on QOL. Unlike conventional measurement tools and scales, which focus on a specific moment in the patient's life, a CLCI tool investigates the repercussions of disease that accumulate over a lifetime, interfering with the individual's full potential development and altering perspectives that might have been different had psoriasis not been present. The accumulated impact will vary from patient to patient depending on circumstances that interact differently over time as the burden of stigmatization, concomitant physical and psychological conditions associated with psoriasis, coping mechanisms, and external factors come into play and are modulated by the individual's personality.

  15. Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierazzo, E.

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

  16. Bullet Impact Safety Study of PBX-9502

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferranti, Louis

    2013-06-01

    A new small arms capability for performing bullet impact testing into energetic materials has recently been activated at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory located in the High Explosives Applications Facility (HEAF). The initial capability includes 0.223, 0.30, and 0.50 testing calibers with the flexibility to add other barrels in the near future. An initial test series has been performed using the 0.50 caliber barrel shooting bullets into targets using the TATB based explosive PBX-9502 and shows an expected non-violent reaction. Future experiments to evaluate the safety of new explosive formulations to bullet impact are planned. A highlight of the new capability along with discussion of the initial experiments to date will be presented including future areas of research. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  17. Solar-gas systems impact analysis study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neill, C. P.; Hahn, E. F.; Loose, J. C.; Poe, T. E.; Hirshberg, A. S.; Haas, S.; Preble, B.; Halpin, J.

    1984-07-01

    The impacts of solar/gas technologies on gas consumers and on gas utilities were measured separately and compared against the impacts of competing gas and electric systems in four climatic regions of the U.S. A methodology was developed for measuring the benefits or penalties of solar/gas systems on a combined basis for consumers sand distribution companies. It is shown that the combined benefits associated with solar/gas systems are generally greatest when the systems are purchased by customers who would have otherwise chosen high-efficiency electric systems (were solar/gas systems not available in the market place). The role of gas utilities in encouraging consumer acceptance of solar/gas systems was also examined ion a qualitative fashion. A decision framework for analyzing the type and level of utility involvement in solar/gas technologies was developed.

  18. Developing an estimate of daily cumulative loading for the knee: examining test-retest reliability.

    PubMed

    Robbins, Shawn M K; Birmingham, Trevor B; Jones, Gareth R; Callaghan, Jack P; Maly, Monica R

    2009-11-01

    Although the knee adduction moment during gait is a valid and reliable proxy for the dynamic load on the medial compartment of the knee, it represents exposure to loading during one stride only. In contrast, a measure that incorporates both the nature and frequency of loading throughout daily activities might provide additional insight into the effects of cumulative knee loading. The purpose of this study was to introduce a new representation of daily cumulative knee loading and examine its test-retest reliability. Thirty healthy adults participated. Cumulative knee loading was calculated on two testing periods from the mean external knee adduction moment stance phase impulse, measured with a three-dimensional motion capture system over five walking trials, and mean steps/day, measured with a unidimensional accelerometer over one week. Analysis for test-retest reliability included Bland-Altman graphs, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC 2,1) and standard errors of measurements (SEM). The ICC values for cumulative knee loading, adduction impulse and steps/day ranged from 0.84 to 0.89. Bland-Altman plots suggested daily cumulative knee loading and steps/day measures were less reliable at higher values. The SEM values were 9.67 kNm s, 1.45 Nm s and 1043 steps/day for cumulative knee loading, adduction impulse and steps/day, respectively. Daily cumulative knee loading is reliable and provides a stable measure of the total exposure to knee loading. These findings support further study of cumulative knee loading to determine its potential clinical importance.

  19. Evolution model with a cumulative feedback coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zabrocki, Knud; Schulz, Michael

    2002-05-01

    The paper is concerned with a toy model that generalizes the standard Lotka-Volterra equation for a certain population by introducing a competition between instantaneous and accumulative, history-dependent nonlinear feedback the origin of which could be a contribution from any kind of mismanagement in the past. The results depend on the sign of that additional cumulative loss or gain term of strength λ. In case of a positive coupling the system offers a maximum gain achieved after a finite time but the population will die out in the long time limit. In this case the instantaneous loss term of strength u is irrelevant and the model exhibits an exact solution. In the opposite case λ<0 the time evolution of the system is terminated in a crash after ts provided u=0. This singularity after a finite time can be avoided if u≠0. The approach may well be of relevance for the qualitative understanding of more realistic descriptions.

  20. Evaluating Fiscal Impact Studies: Community Guidelines. Coping with Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Bruce; Goldman, George

    Fiscal impact analysis is the study of the effect of development or policy alternatives on government expenditures and revenues and on taxes. There are numerous possible uses or objectives of fiscal impact studies; no one method of analysis is appropriate to all problems. Sensitivity analysis of critical assumptions is an important part of a…

  1. Understanding the Head Start Impact Study. Evaluation Science Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Forum on Early Childhood Policy and Programs, 2010

    2010-01-01

    The 2010 report of the Head Start Impact Study is an important follow-up evaluation of the only national investigation that attempts to answer the question: "What are the program's impacts, as measured at the end of first grade, for children who received Head Start services when they were 3 or 4 years of age?" Overall, the study was sound…

  2. Dealing with "Induced Migration" in University Impact Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Felsenstein, Daniel

    1995-01-01

    This article argues that a factor often overestimated in studies of a university's impact on its community is the effect of inmigration of students and faculty. A case study is presented of the short-term migration impact of Northwestern University on Evanston, Illinois. The effect of local consumption patterns of migrants is also discussed. (MSE)

  3. Head Start Impact Study. Final Report. Executive Summary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Shapiro, Gary; Broene, Pam; Jenkins, Frank; Fletcher, Philip; Quinn, Liz; Friedman, Janet; Ciarico, Janet; Rohacek, Monica; Adams, Gina; Spier, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings from a study on the impacts of Head Start on children and families during the children's preschool, kindergarten, and 1st grade years. Its study goals were to: (1) Determine the impact of Head Start on children's school readiness, and on parental practices that support children's development; and to (2)…

  4. Compaction of Chromite Cumulates applying a Centrifuging Piston-Cylinder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manoochehri, S.; Schmidt, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Stratiform accumulations of chromite cumulates, such as the UG2 chromitite layer in the Bushveld Complex, is a common feature in most of the large layered mafic intrusions. The time scales and mechanics of gravitationally driven crystal settling and compaction and the feasibility of these processes for the formation of such cumulate layers is investigated through a series of high temperature (1280-1300 °C) centrifuge-assisted experiments at 100-2000 g, 0.4-0.6 GPa. A mixture of natural chromite, with defined grain sizes (means of 5 μm, 13 μm, and 52 μm), and a melt with a composition thought to represent the parental magma of the Bushveld Complex, was first chemically and texturally equilibrated at static conditions and then centrifuged. Centrifugation leads to a single cumulate layer formed at the gravitational bottom of the capsule. This layer was analysed for porosity, mean grain size, size distribution and also travelling distance of chromite crystals. The experimentally observed mechanical settling velocity of chromite grains in a suspension with ~ 24 vol% crystals is calculated to be about half (~ 0.53) of the Stokes settling velocity, consistent with a sedimentation exponent n of 2.35±0.3. The settling leads to a porosity of about 52 % in the chromite layer. Formation times of chromite orthocumulates with initial crystal content in the melt of 1 % and grain sizes of 2 mm are thus around 0.6 m/day. To achieve more compacted chromite piles, centrifugation times and acceleration were increased. Within each experiment the crystal content of the cumulate layer increases downward almost linearly at least in the lower 2/3 of the cumulate pile. Although porosity in the lowermost segment of the chromite layer decreases with increasing effective stress integrated over time, the absolute decrease is smaller than for experiments with olivine (from a previous study). Formation times of a ½ meter single chromite layer with 70 vol% chromite, is calculated to be

  5. Cumulative Incidence of Cancer among HIV-infected Individuals in North America

    PubMed Central

    Silverberg, Michael J.; Lau, Bryan; Achenbach, Chad J.; Jing, Yuezhou; Althoff, Keri N.; D’Souza, Gypsyamber; Engels, Eric A.; Hessol, Nancy; Brooks, John T.; Burchell, Ann N.; Gill, M. John; Goedert, James J.; Hogg, Robert; Horberg, Michael A.; Kirk, Gregory D.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Korthuis, Phillip T.; Mathews, William C.; Mayor, Angel; Modur, Sharada P.; Napravnik, Sonia; Novak, Richard M.; Patel, Pragna; Rachlis, Anita R.; Sterling, Timothy R.; Willig, James H.; Justice, Amy C.; Moore, Richard D.; Dubrow, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Background Cancer is increasingly common among HIV patients given improved survival. Objective To examine calendar trends in cumulative cancer incidence and hazard rate by HIV status. Design Cohort study Setting North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design during 1996–2009 Patients 86,620 HIV-infected and 196,987 uninfected adults Measurements We estimated cancer-type-specific cumulative incidence by age 75 years by HIV status and calendar era, and examined calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rates. Results Cumulative incidences (%) of cancer by age 75 (HIV+/HIV−) were: Kaposi sarcoma (KS), 4.4/0.01; non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), 4.5/0.7; lung, 3.4/2.8; anal, 1.5/0.1; colorectal, 1.0/1.5; liver, 1.1/0.4; Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), 0.9/0.1; melanoma, 0.5/0.6; and oral cavity/pharyngeal, 0.8/0.8. Among HIV-infected subjects, we observed decreasing calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rate for KS and NHL. For anal, colorectal and liver cancers, increasing cumulative incidence, but not hazard rate trends, were due to the decreasing mortality rate trend (−9% per year), allowing greater opportunity to be diagnosed with these cancer types. Despite decreasing hazard rate trends for lung, HL, and melanoma, we did not observe cumulative incidence trends due to the compensating effect of the declining mortality rate on cumulative incidence. Limitations Secular trends in screening, smoking, and viral co-infections were not evaluated. Conclusions Our analytic approach helped disentangle the effects of improved survival and changing cancer-specific hazard rates on cumulative incidence trends among HIV patients. Cumulative cancer incidence by age 75, approximating lifetime risk in HIV patients, may have clinical utility in this population. The high cumulative incidences by age 75 for KS, NHL, and lung cancer supports early and sustained ART and smoking cessation. Primary Funding Source National Institutes of Health PMID:26436616

  6. Potential for cumulative effects of human stressors on fish, sea birds and marine mammals in Arctic waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, Jesper H.; Berzaghi, Fabio; Christensen, Tom; Geertz-Hansen, Ole; Mosbech, Anders; Stock, Andy; Zinglersen, Karl B.; Wisz, Mary S.

    2017-01-01

    We estimate the potential for cumulative impacts from multiple anthropogenic stressors on fish, sea birds, and marine mammals in the western, southern and south-eastern parts of marine waters around Greenland. The analysis is based on a comprehensive data set representing five human activities including two proxies for climate change, as well as 25 key animal species including commercially important fish and top predators such as sea birds and marine mammals. Anthropogenic stressors are concentrated in two areas: the offshore waters south of Greenland, and especially the western coast from the Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island) area to the southern tip of Greenland. The latter is also an area of high importance for many key species, thus the potential for cumulative impacts is high along Greenland's west coast. We conclude that this area should be under high scientific scrutiny and conservation attention. Our study is a first attempt and a stepping-stone towards more detailed and accurate estimates of the effects of multiple human stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems.

  7. Case study: the impact of VSB fracturing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dillon, Brian; Norris, Tim

    2008-05-01

    Yield of a Variable Shaped Beam (VSB) created photomask is directly related to the quality of the fracture. The quality of a fracture is determined by three criteria: split CDs, slivers, and fracture consistency. Split CDs of figures whose widths are under the beam's shot size affect the quality due to adding an unnecessary shot registration error. Slivers, or extremely skinny shots, are harmful because they increase write time, adversely affect lithography patterning, and subsequently can cause inspection errors. Inconsistent fracturing of identical geometry compounds these issues that affect uniformity. Testmask structures devoted to grading the impact of slivers and consistency will be created, manufactured, and measured to enable statistical analysis of fracture data. These structures will be systematically designed to cover a wide range of sliver widths and feature geometries. The mean to target will be evaluated for these test structures, and from this, impact on CD linearity and CD uniformity can be judged. The effect of slivers on write time will be discussed in a more general scope. When evaluating the impact of slivers, five criteria should be investigated: sliver length, sliver width, proximity, avoidability, and location. Each of these criteria either affect lithography or write time. Determining how to define the maximum width of a sliver is fracture algorithm dependent, but this paper gives guidelines that should ease that process. The goal is to fracture identical geometry in an identical fashion, regardless of orientation or mirroring, while making the shots as large as possible and avoiding slivers; and when avoiding a sliver is impossible, trying to embed the sliver between large shots.

  8. Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA.

    PubMed

    Bellard, C; Leclerc, C; Courchamp, F

    2015-07-07

    Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080  . These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

  9. Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy.

    PubMed

    Bowerman, Niel H A; Frame, David J; Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A; Allen, Myles R

    2011-01-13

    A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human-induced global warming and cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker. However, cumulative targets appear to conflict with the concept of a 'floor' in emissions caused by sectors such as food production. Here, we show that the introduction of emissions floors does not reduce the importance of cumulative emissions, but may make some warming targets unachievable. For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4°C, cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more natural long-term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100. The maximum rate of CO(2)-induced warming, which will affect the feasibility and cost of adapting to climate change, is not determined by cumulative emissions but is tightly aligned with peak rates of emissions. Hence, cumulative carbon emissions to 2200 and peak emission rates could provide a clear and simple framework for CO(2) mitigation policy.

  10. The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young-Kyun; Kim, Bum-Su; Yun, Pil-Young; Mun, Sang-Un; Yi, Yang-Jin; Jeong, Kyung-In

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study was performed to analyze the cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants (Osstem Implant Co., Ltd.) over a seven-year period. Materials and Methods A total of 105 patients who had 467 Osstem implants that were placed at the Section of Dentistry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (Seongnam, Korea) from June 2003 through December 2005 were analyzed. The life table method and a cross-tubulation analysis, log rank test were used to evaluate the survival curve and the influence that the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors, i.e., age and gender of patients, diameter and length, type of implants, bone graft history and loading time were determined with a Cox proportional hazard model based on logistic regression analysis. Results The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants was 95.37%. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that the following factors had a significant influence on survival rate; increased diameter, reduced prosthetic loading period and performance of bone grafting. Conclusion The osstem implants showed satisfactory results over the seven-year study period. PMID:24868503

  11. PRIME: Studying Low-Velocity Impacts in Microgravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colwell, J.; Brisset, J.; Dove, A.; Whizin, A.; Nagler, H.; Brown, N.

    2015-10-01

    We report on the results of the third PRIME (Physics of Regolith Impacts in Microgravity Experiment) campaign on-board the NASA C-9 airplane in August 2014. The objective of the PRIME experiment is to study low-velocity impacts of cmsized particles into dusty regolith under asteroid level- and microgravity conditions. First data analysis shows that this latest campaign successfully extended the previous measurements of coefficient of restitution and ejecta velocities to much lower impact energies.

  12. Methodologies for Assessing the Cumulative Environmental Effects of Hydroelectric Development of Fish and Wildlife in the Columbia River Basin, Volume 1, Recommendations, 1987 Final Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Stull, Elizabeth Ann

    1987-07-01

    This volume is the first of a two-part set addressing methods for assessing the cumulative effects of hydropower development on fish and wildlife in the Columbia River Basin. Species and habitats potentially affected by cumulative impacts are identified for the basin, and the most significant effects of hydropower development are presented. Then, current methods for measuring and assessing single-project effects are reviewed, followed by a review of methodologies with potential for use in assessing the cumulative effects associated with multiple projects. Finally, two new approaches for cumulative effects assessment are discussed in detail. Overall, this report identifies and reviews the concepts, factors, and methods necessary for understanding and conducting a cumulative effects assessment in the Columbia River Basin. Volume 2 will present a detailed procedural handbook for performing a cumulative assessment using the integrated tabular methodology introduced in this volume. 308 refs., 18 figs., 10 tabs.

  13. Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon; de Elía, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    The Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) measures the response of global temperatures to cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the TCRE is a global quantity, climate impacts manifest predominantly in response to local climate changes. Here we quantify the link between CO2 emissions and regional temperature change, showing that regional temperatures also respond approximately linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions. Using an ensemble of twelve Earth system models, we present a novel application of pattern scaling to define the regional pattern of temperature change per emission of CO2. Ensemble mean regional TCRE values range from less than 1 °C per TtC for some ocean regions, to more than 5 °C per TtC in the Arctic, with a pattern of higher values over land and at high northern latitudes. We find also that high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions. The strong linearity of the regional climate response over most land regions provides a robust way to quantitatively link anthropogenic CO2 emissions to local-scale climate impacts.

  14. Why Veterinary Medical Educators Should Embrace Cumulative Final Exams.

    PubMed

    Royal, Kenneth D

    2017-01-03

    The topic of cumulative final examinations often elicits polarizing opinions from veterinary medical educators. While some faculty prefer cumulative finals, there are many who perceive these types of examinations as problematic. Specifically, faculty often cite cumulative examinations are more likely to cause students' greater stress, which may in turn result in negative student evaluations of teaching. Cumulative finals also restrict the number of items one may present to students on most recent material. While these cited disadvantages may have some merit, the advantages of cumulative examinations far exceed the disadvantages. The purpose of this article is to discuss the advantages of cumulative examinations with respect to learning evidence, grade/score validity, fairness issues, and implications for academic policy.

  15. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    PubMed Central

    Lattal, Kennon A

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his colleagues to its perfection in the 1950s, and then into the 1960s when it proliferated as different scientific instrument companies began marketing their own models of the cumulative recorder. With the rise of digital computers, the demise of the cumulative recorder as a scientific instrument was inevitable; however, the value of the cumulative record as a monitoring device to assess schedule control of behavior continues. The cumulative recorder remains, along with the operant conditioning chamber, an icon of Skinner's approach to psychology. PMID:15693527

  16. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    PubMed

    Lattal, Kennon A

    2004-11-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his colleagues to its perfection in the 1950s, and then into the 1960s when it proliferated as different scientific instrument companies began marketing their own models of the cumulative recorder. With the rise of digital computers, the demise of the cumulative recorder as a scientific instrument was inevitable; however, the value of the cumulative record as a monitoring device to assess schedule control of behavior continues. The cumulative recorder remains, along with the operant conditioning chamber, an icon of Skinner's approach to psychology.

  17. The use of scans for impact studies of transportation packages

    SciTech Connect

    Mok, G.C.; Witte, M.C.

    1988-06-24

    This paper presents the results of an impact study using the computer program SCANS (Shipping Cask ANalysis System), which was developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Department of Energy (DOE) for structural analysis of transportation packages of radioactive materials. The program operates on IBM PC and compatible microcomputers. It has capabilities for other analysis such as heat transfer, pressure and thermal stress analysis. However, this study uses only the impact analysis capability, which includes a quasi-static and a dynamic analysis option. It is shown that the program produces reasonable results for a wide range of impact conditions. The results are in agreement with existing information on impact analysis and phenomenon. In view of its simplicity in modelling and convenience in usage, the SCANS program can be effectively used for confirmatory analysis, preliminary design study, and quick assessment of the need for detailed impact analysis. 2 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

  18. Cumulative ultraviolet radiation flux in adulthood and risk of incident skin cancers in women

    PubMed Central

    Wu, S; Han, J; Vleugels, R A; Puett, R; Laden, F; Hunter, D J; Qureshi, A A

    2014-01-01

    Background: Solar ultraviolet (UV) exposure estimated based on residential history has been used as a sun exposure indicator in previous case–control and descriptive studies. However, the associations of cumulative UV exposure based on residential history with different skin cancers, including melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC), have not been evaluated simultaneously in prospective studies. Methods: We conducted a cohort study among 108 578 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1976–2006) to evaluate the relative risks of skin cancers with cumulative UV flux based on residential history in adulthood. Results: Risk of SCC and BCC was significantly lower for women in lower quintiles vs the highest quintile of cumulative UV flux (both P for trend <0.0001). The association between cumulative UV flux and risk of melanoma did not reach statistical significance. However, risk of melanoma appeared to be lower among women in lower quintiles vs the highest quintile of cumulative UV flux in lag analyses with 2–10 years between exposure and outcome. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios per 200 × 10−4 Robertson–Berger units increase in cumulative UV flux were 0.979 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.933, 1.028) for melanoma, 1.072 (95% CI: 1.041, 1.103) for SCC, and 1.043 (95% CI: 1.034, 1.052) for BCC. Conclusions: Associations with cumulative UV exposure in adulthood among women differed for melanoma, SCC, and BCC, suggesting a potential variable role of UV radiation in adulthood in the carcinogenesis of the three major skin cancers. PMID:24595003

  19. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data.

    PubMed

    Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Tulve, Nicolle S

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cumulative doses for seven commonly used pyrethroids, and comparisons of model evaluation results with NHANES biomarker data for 3-PBA and DCCA metabolites. Model input distributions were fit to publicly available pesticide usage survey data, NHANES, and other studies, then SHEDS-Multimedia was applied to estimate total pyrethroid exposures and doses for 3-5 year olds for one year variability simulations. For dose estimations we used a pharmacokinetic model and two approaches for simulating dermal absorption. SHEDS-Multimedia predictions compared well to NHANES biomarker data: ratios of 3-PBA observed data to SHEDS-Multimedia modeled results were 0.88, 0.51, 0.54 and 1.02 for mean, median, 95th, and 99th percentiles, respectively; for DCCA, the ratios were 0.82, 0.53, 0.56, and 0.94. Modeled time-averaged cumulative absorbed dose of the seven pyrethroids was 3.1 nmol/day (versus 8.4 nmol/day for adults) in the general population (residential pyrethroid use and non-use homes) and 6.7 nmol/day (versus 10.5 nmol/day for adults) in the simulated residential pyrethroid use population. For the general population, contributions to modeled cumulative dose by chemical were permethrin (60%), cypermethrin (22%), and cyfluthrin (16%); for residential use homes, contributions were cypermethrin (49%), permethrin (29%), and cyfluthrin (17%). The primary exposure route for 3-5 year olds in the simulated residential use population was non-dietary ingestion exposure; whereas for the simulated general population, dietary exposure was the primary exposure route. Below the 95th percentile, the major exposure pathway was dietary for the general population; non-dietary ingestion was the major pathway starting below

  20. Standardization of the cumulative absolute velocity

    SciTech Connect

    O'Hara, T.F.; Jacobson, J.P. )

    1991-12-01

    EPRI NP-5930, A Criterion for Determining Exceedance of the Operating Basis Earthquake,'' was published in July 1988. As defined in that report, the Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) is exceeded when both a response spectrum parameter and a second damage parameter, referred to as the Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV), are exceeded. In the review process of the above report, it was noted that the calculation of CAV could be confounded by time history records of long duration containing low (nondamaging) acceleration. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the method of calculating CAV to account for record length. This standardized methodology allows consistent comparisons between future CAV calculations and the adjusted CAV threshold value based upon applying the standardized methodology to the data set presented in EPRI NP-5930. The recommended method to standardize the CAV calculation is to window its calculation on a second-by-second basis for a given time history. If the absolute acceleration exceeds 0.025g at any time during each one second interval, the earthquake records used in EPRI NP-5930 have been reanalyzed and the adjusted threshold of damage for CAV was found to be 0.16g-set.

  1. Ergonomic risk factors for cumulative trauma disorders in VDU operators.

    PubMed

    Turhan, Nur; Akat, Celil; Akyüz, Müfit; Cakci, Aytül

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to investigate the rate of cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) in the upper body and to describe the associations of such disorders with ergonomic parameters in a group of data entry operators. A total of 173 data entry operators volunteered to take part in the study. Questionnaires were used to investigate their medical history. Diagnoses of CTDs were made with clinical tests. A visual posture analysis of the workers and an ergonomic analysis of workstations and workload were used to reveal risk factors. Neck and shoulder pain, extensor tendonitis of the wrists and De Quervain's disease were common in the study population. An assessment of risk factors showed that leaning wrists on the keyboard, hard keystrokes, extreme wrist joint and thumb positions and working in poor ergonomic design were correlated to pain and development of CTDs.

  2. Cumulative energy demand as predictor for the environmental burden of commodity production.

    PubMed

    Huijbregts, Mark A J; Hellweg, Stefanie; Frischknecht, Rolf; Hendriks, Harrie W M; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Hendriks, A Jan

    2010-03-15

    Cumulative energy demand has been used as a methodology to assess life cycle environmental impacts of commodity production since the early seventies, but has also been criticized because it focuses on energy only. During the past 30 years there has been much research into the development of more complex single-score life cycle impact assessment methodologies. However, a comprehensive analysis of potential similarities and differences between these methodologies and cumulative energy demand has not been carried out so far. Here we compare the cumulative energy demand of 498 commodities with the results of six frequently applied environmental life cycle impact assessment methodologies. Commodity groups included are metals, glass, paper and cardboard, organic and inorganic chemicals, agricultural products, construction materials, and plastics. We show that all impact assessment methods investigated often provide converging results, in spite of the different philosophies behind these methodologies. Fossil energy use is identified by all methodologies as the most important driver of environmental burden of the majority of the commodities included,with the main exception of agricultural products. We conclude that a wide range of life cycle environmental assessment methodologies point into the same environmental direction for the production of many commodities.

  3. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2009

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Bryson, Amanda J.; Cameron, April; Coleman, Andre M.; Corbett, C.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Kauffman, Ronald; Roegner, G. Curtis; Russell, Micah T.; Silva, April; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John; Woodruff, Dana L.; Zimmerman, Shon A.

    2010-10-26

    This is the sixth annual report of a seven-year project (2004 through 2010) to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE). The project, called the Cumulative Effects Study, is being conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) by the Marine Sciences Laboratory of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the Pt. Adams Biological Field Station of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST), and the University of Washington. The goal of the Cumulative Effects Study is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the 235-km-long LCRE. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. From 2005 through 2009, annual field research involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp versus marsh), trajectory (restoration versus reference site), and restoration action (tidegate replacement vs. culvert replacement vs. dike breach).

  4. Cumulative Adversity and Smaller Gray Matter Volume in Medial Prefrontal, Anterior Cingulate, and Insula Regions

    PubMed Central

    Ansell, Emily B.; Rando, Kenneth; Tuit, Keri; Guarnaccia, Joseph; Sinha, Rajita

    2012-01-01

    Background Cumulative adversity and stress are associated with risk of psychiatric disorders. While basic science studies show repeated and chronic stress effects on prefrontal and limbic neurons, human studies examining cumulative stress and effects on brain morphology are rare. Thus, we assessed whether cumulative adversity is associated with differences in gray matter volume, particularly in regions regulating emotion, self-control, and top-down processing in a community sample. Methods One hundred three healthy community participants, aged 18 to 48 and 68% male, completed interview assessment of cumulative adversity and a structural magnetic resonance imaging protocol. Whole-brain voxel-based-morphometry analysis was performed adjusting for age, gender, and total intracranial volume. Results Cumulative adversity was associated with smaller volume in medial prefrontal cortex (PFC), insular cortex, and subgenual anterior cingulate regions (familywise error corrected, p <.001). Recent stressful life events were associated with smaller volume in two clusters: the medial PFC and the right insula. Life trauma was associated with smaller volume in the medial PFC, anterior cingulate, and subgenual regions. The interaction of greater subjective chronic stress and greater cumulative life events was associated with smaller volume in the orbitofrontal cortex, insula, and anterior and subgenual cingulate regions. Conclusions Current results demonstrate that increasing cumulative exposure to adverse life events is associated with smaller gray matter volume in key prefrontal and limbic regions involved in stress, emotion and reward regulation, and impulse control. These differences found in community participants may serve to mediate vulnerability to depression, addiction, and other stress-related psychopathology. PMID:22218286

  5. Impact of Multi-Media Case Studies on Improving Intrinsic Learning Motivation of Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mehta, Anju; Clayton, Howard; Sankar, Chetan S.

    2008-01-01

    Past research has suggested that students need to be motivated by themselves (intrinsic learning motivation) and use higher-order cognitive skills so as to excel in problem solving, decision-making, and analytical reasoning in real-life situations. In this study, we examined the role of intrinsic learning motivation (ILM) and cumulative GPA in…

  6. X-boson cumulant approach to the periodic Anderson model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franco, R.; Figueira, M. S.; Foglio, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The periodic Anderson model can be studied in the limit U=∞ by employing the Hubbard X operators to project out the unwanted states. We had already studied this problem by employing the cumulant expansion with the hybridization as perturbation, but the probability conservation of the local states (completeness) is not usually satisfied when partial expansions like the ``chain approximation'' (CHA) are employed. To rectify this situation, we modify the CHA by employing a procedure that was used in the mean-field approximation of Coleman's slave-boson method. Our technique reproduces the features of that method in its region of validity, but avoids the unwanted phase transition that appears in the same method both when μ>>Ef at low T and for all values of the parameters at intermediate temperatures. Our method also has a dynamic character that is absent from the mean-field slave-boson method.

  7. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture.

    PubMed

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-02-12

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups).

  8. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture

    PubMed Central

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups). PMID:21199845

  9. Variability in Cumulative Habitual Sleep Duration Predicts Waking Functional Connectivity

    PubMed Central

    Khalsa, Sakh; Mayhew, Stephen D.; Przezdzik, Izabela; Wilson, Rebecca; Hale, Joanne; Goldstone, Aimee; Bagary, Manny; Bagshaw, Andrew P.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: We examined whether interindividual differences in habitual sleep patterns, quantified as the cumulative habitual total sleep time (cTST) over a 2-w period, were reflected in waking measurements of intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity (FC) between major nodes of three intrinsically connected networks (ICNs): default mode network (DMN), salience network (SN), and central executive network (CEN). Methods: Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study using seed-based FC analysis combined with 14-d wrist actigraphy, sleep diaries, and subjective questionnaires (N = 33 healthy adults, mean age 34.3, standard deviation ± 11.6 y). Data were statistically analyzed using multiple linear regression. Fourteen consecutive days of wrist actigraphy in participant's home environment and fMRI scanning on day 14 at the Birmingham University Imaging Centre. Seed-based FC analysis on ICNs from resting-state fMRI data and multiple linear regression analysis performed for each ICN seed and target. cTST was used to predict FC (controlling for age). Results: cTST was specific predictor of intranetwork FC when the mesial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) region of the DMN was used as a seed for FC, with a positive correlation between FC and cTST observed. No significant relationship between FC and cTST was seen for any pair of nodes not including the MPFC. Internetwork FC between the DMN (MPFC) and SN (right anterior insula) was also predicted by cTST, with a negative correlation observed between FC and cTST. Conclusions: This study improves understanding of the relationship between intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity of intrinsically connected networks (ICNs) in relation to habitual sleep quality and duration. The cumulative amount of sleep that participants achieved over a 14-d period was significantly predictive of intranetwork and inter-network functional connectivity of ICNs, an observation that may underlie the link

  10. Study Skills Course Impact on Academic Self-Efficacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wernersbach, Brenna M.; Crowley, Susan L.; Bates, Scott C.; Rosenthal, Carol

    2014-01-01

    Although study skills courses improve student retention, the impact of study skills courses on students' academic self-efficacy has not been investigated. The present study examined pre- and posttest levels of academic self-efficacy in college students enrolled in a study skills course (n = 126) compared to students enrolled in a general education…

  11. Cumulative Stress and Cortisol Disruption among Black and Hispanic Pregnant Women in an Urban Cohort.

    PubMed

    Suglia, Shakira Franco; Staudenmayer, John; Cohen, Sheldon; Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Wright, Rosalind J

    2010-12-01

    While adult hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis functioning is thought to be altered by traumatic experiences, little data exist on the effects of cumulative stress on HPA functioning among pregnant women or among specific racial and ethnic groups. Individuals may be increasingly vulnerable to physiological alterations when experiencing cumulative effects of multiple stressors. These effects may be particularly relevant in urban poor communities where exposure to multiple stressors is more prevalent. The goal of this study was to explore the effects of multiple social stressors on HPA axis functioning in a sample of urban Black (n = 68) and Hispanic (n = 132) pregnant women enrolled in the Asthma Coalition on Community, Environment, and Social Stress (ACCESS). Pregnant women were administered the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (R-CTS) survey to assess interpersonal violence, the Experiences of Discrimination (EOD) survey, the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised (CRISYS-R) negative life events survey, and the My Exposure to Violence (ETV) survey, which ascertains exposure to community violence. A cumulative stress measure was derived from these instruments. Salivary cortisol samples were collected five times per day over three days to assess area under the curve (AUC), morning change, and basal awakening response in order to characterize diurnal salivary cortisol patterns. Repeated measures mixed models, stratified by race/ethnicity, were performed adjusting for education level, age, smoking status, body mass index and weeks pregnant at time of cortisol sampling. The majority of Hispanic participants (57%) had low cumulative stress exposure, while the majority of Black participants had intermediate (35%) or high (41%) cumulative stress exposure. Results showed that among Black but not Hispanic women, cumulative stress was associated with lower morning cortisol levels, including a flatter waking to bedtime rhythm. These analyses suggest that the combined

  12. Cumulative Stress and Cortisol Disruption among Black and Hispanic Pregnant Women in an Urban Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Suglia, Shakira Franco; Staudenmayer, John; Cohen, Sheldon; Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Rich-Edwards, Janet W.; Wright, Rosalind J.

    2010-01-01

    While adult hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis functioning is thought to be altered by traumatic experiences, little data exist on the effects of cumulative stress on HPA functioning among pregnant women or among specific racial and ethnic groups. Individuals may be increasingly vulnerable to physiological alterations when experiencing cumulative effects of multiple stressors. These effects may be particularly relevant in urban poor communities where exposure to multiple stressors is more prevalent. The goal of this study was to explore the effects of multiple social stressors on HPA axis functioning in a sample of urban Black (n = 68) and Hispanic (n = 132) pregnant women enrolled in the Asthma Coalition on Community, Environment, and Social Stress (ACCESS). Pregnant women were administered the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (R-CTS) survey to assess interpersonal violence, the Experiences of Discrimination (EOD) survey, the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised (CRISYS-R) negative life events survey, and the My Exposure to Violence (ETV) survey, which ascertains exposure to community violence. A cumulative stress measure was derived from these instruments. Salivary cortisol samples were collected five times per day over three days to assess area under the curve (AUC), morning change, and basal awakening response in order to characterize diurnal salivary cortisol patterns. Repeated measures mixed models, stratified by race/ethnicity, were performed adjusting for education level, age, smoking status, body mass index and weeks pregnant at time of cortisol sampling. The majority of Hispanic participants (57%) had low cumulative stress exposure, while the majority of Black participants had intermediate (35%) or high (41%) cumulative stress exposure. Results showed that among Black but not Hispanic women, cumulative stress was associated with lower morning cortisol levels, including a flatter waking to bedtime rhythm. These analyses suggest that the combined

  13. A cumulative index to Aeronautical Engineering: A special bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    This publication is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in NASA SP-7037 (80) through NASA SP-7037 (91) of Aeronautical Engineering: A Special Bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics (AIAA) and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, contract, and report number indexes.

  14. Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative Risk Assessment Approach for Mixtures of Environmental Contaminants. This report describes a process that can be used to determine the potential value of developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to support a cumulative risk assessment. It also addresses the justification for developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for cumulative risk assessment. Chemical interactions in the body can alter the response observed, but the likelihood of an interactions is often most dependent on exposure. Results from these models can explain the basis for chemical interactions and can predict their likelihood at low, environmental exposures. This report identifies some key points to be considered when deciding whether to use PBPK modeling in a cumulative risk assessment. This report develops a framework to guide decisions whether to incorporate physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling into the cumulative risk assessment process.

  15. Lattice QCD results on cumulant ratios at freeze-out

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karsch, Frithjof

    2017-01-01

    Ratios of cumulants of net proton-number fluctuations measured by the STAR Collaboration show strong deviations from a skellam distribution, which should describe thermal properties of cumulant ratios, if proton-number fluctuations are generated in equilibrium and a hadron resonance gas (HRG) model would provide a suitable description of thermodynamics at the freeze-out temperature. We present some results on 6 th order cumulants entering the calculation of the QCD equation of state at non-zero values of the baryon chemical potential (μB ) and discuss limitations on the applicability of HRG thermodynamics deduced from a comparison between QCD and HRG model calculations of cumulants of conserved charge fluctuations. We show that basic features of the μB -dependence of skewness and kurtosis ratios of net proton-number fluctuations measured by the STAR Collaboration resemble those expected from a QCD calculation of the corresponding net baryon-number cumulant ratios.

  16. Histidinaemia. Part III: Impact; a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Coulombe, J T; Kammerer, B L; Levy, H L; Hirsch, B Z; Scriver, C R

    1983-01-01

    We describe a prospective study of histidinaemia. Probands and siblings (n = 21) with typical histidinaemia in 16 families were ascertained by newborn screening; diagnosis was confirmed by appropriate investigations in each subject; none had been treated by low histidine diet. The median age of subjects with histidinaemia was 9.5 y (mean 10.0, SD 3.5, range 6-18). Age-matched sib-pairs and their mothers were studied. IQ scores (Full Scale, Verbal and Performance Scores), Visual-Motor Integration Performance (Bender Gestalt and Koppitz scores), Wide Range Achievement Test (Reading and Mathematics), school performance, and psychological history were evaluated, as well as the medical history (pregnancy, delivery, neonatal, post-natal development). Findings were correlated with biochemical phenotype. CNS development in histidinaemic subjects (mean and distribution of scores) was normal; outlier values did not correlate with degree of histidinaemia. We can conclude that histidinaemia detected by newborn screening is a non-disadaptive phenotype.

  17. The Oriente Study: program and policy impacts.

    PubMed

    Ruel, Marie T

    2010-02-01

    This journal supplement summarizes the many contributions of the Oriente Study to scientific knowledge. This article asks whether this knowledge has actually translated into program and/or policy changes. It describes 2 key areas where this is the case: 1) in defining the "window of opportunity" for nutrition interventions and changing policy regarding the targeting of nutrition interventions; and 2) in building the economic argument for investing in early childhood nutrition. It concludes that the study contributed most of the research evidence supporting the change in policy adopted by the U.S. government in 2009, which encourages the targeting of food-assisted maternal and child health and nutrition programs to pregnant mothers and children under 2 y of age. The paper reviews the process and the complementary evidence that led to this policy change. The Oriente Study also provides the first direct, and the strongest, evidence supporting the economic argument in favor of investing in early child nutrition. The results show a direct link between improved nutrition in early childhood and persistent benefits in adult physical status, schooling, cognitive skills, and economic productivity. It is hoped that, given the multiple shocks currently affecting the poor, these powerful results will help stimulate greater investments in maternal and child nutrition in the short term.

  18. Modelling impacts of offshore wind farms on trophic web: the Courseulles-sur-Mer case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raoux, Aurore; Pezy, Jean-Philippe; Dauvin, Jean-Claude; Tecchio, samuele; Degraer, Steven; Wilhelmsson, Dan; Niquil, Nathalie

    2016-04-01

    The French government is planning the construction of three offshore wind farms in Normandy. These offshore wind farms will integrate into an ecosystem already subject to a growing number of anthropogenic disturbances such as transportation, fishing, sediment deposit, and sediment extraction. The possible effects of this cumulative stressors on ecosystem functioning are still unknown, but they could impact their resilience, making them susceptible to changes from one stable state to another. Understanding the behaviour of these marine coastal complex systems is essential in order to anticipate potential state changes, and to implement conservation actions in a sustainable manner. Currently, there are no global and integrated studies on the effects of construction and exploitation of offshore wind farms. Moreover, approaches are generally focused on the conservation of some species or groups of species. Here, we develop a holistic and integrated view of ecosystem impacts through the use of trophic webs modelling tools. Trophic models describe the interaction between biological compartments at different trophic levels and are based on the quantification of flow of energy and matter in ecosystems. They allow the application of numerical methods for the characterization of emergent properties of the ecosystem, also called Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). These indices have been proposed as ecosystem health indicators as they have been demonstrated to be sensitive to different impacts on marine ecosystems. We present here in detail the strategy for analysing the potential environmental impacts of the construction of the Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm (Bay of Seine) such as the reef effect through the use of the Ecopath with Ecosim software. Similar Ecopath simulations will be made in the future on the Le Tréport offshore wind farm site. Results will contribute to a better knowledge of the impacts of the offshore wind farms on ecosystems. They also allow to

  19. Estimating population impacts via dynamic occupancy analysis of Before-After Control-Impact studies.

    PubMed

    Popescu, Viorel D; de Valpine, Perry; Tempel, Douglas; Peery, M Zachariah

    2012-06-01

    Estimating environmental impacts on populations is one of the main goals of wildlife monitoring programs, which are often conducted in conjunction with management actions or following natural disturbances. In this study we investigate the statistical power of dynamic occupancy models to detect changes in local survival and colonization from detection-nondetection data, while accounting for imperfect detection probability, in a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) framework. We simulated impacts on local survival and/or detection probabilities, and asked questions related to: (1) costs and benefits of different analysis models, (2) confounding changes in detection with changes in local survival, (3) sampling design trade-offs, and (4) species with low vs. high rates of turnover. Estimating seasonal effects on local survival and colonization, as opposed to estimating Before-After effects, had little effect on the power to detect changes in local survival. Estimating a parameter that accounted for pretreatment differences in local survival between Control and Impact sites decreased power by 50%, but it was critical to include when such differences existed. When the experimental treatment had a negative impact on species detectability but analysis assumed constant detection, the Type I error rates were dramatically inflated (0.20 0.33). In general, there was low power (< 0.5) to detect a 50% decrease in local survival for all combinations of sites (N = 50 vs. 100), seasons sampled (8 vs. 12), and visits per site per season (4 vs. 6). Unbalanced designs performed worse than balanced designs, with the exception of the case of treatments being implemented in different seasons at different sites. Adding more control sites improved the ability to detect changes in local survival. Surveying more seasons after impact resulted in modest power gains, but at least three seasons before impact were required to successfully implement BACI occupancy studies. Turnover rates had a low

  20. Cumulative Incidence Association Models for Bivariate Competing Risks Data.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yu; Fine, Jason P

    2012-03-01

    Association models, like frailty and copula models, are frequently used to analyze clustered survival data and evaluate within-cluster associations. The assumption of noninformative censoring is commonly applied to these models, though it may not be true in many situations. In this paper, we consider bivariate competing risk data and focus on association models specified for the bivariate cumulative incidence function (CIF), a nonparametrically identifiable quantity. Copula models are proposed which relate the bivariate CIF to its corresponding univariate CIFs, similarly to independently right censored data, and accommodate frailty models for the bivariate CIF. Two estimating equations are developed to estimate the association parameter, permitting the univariate CIFs to be estimated either parametrically or nonparametrically. Goodness-of-fit tests are presented for formally evaluating the parametric models. Both estimators perform well with moderate sample sizes in simulation studies. The practical use of the methodology is illustrated in an analysis of dementia associations.

  1. Mathematical modeling of detonation initiation via flow cumulation effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semenov, I.; Utkin, P.; Akhmedyanov, I.

    2016-07-01

    The paper concerns two problems connected with the idea of gaseous detonation initiation via flow cumulation effects and convergence of relatively weak shock waves (SW). The first one is the three-dimensional (3D) numerical investigation of shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) in methane-air mixture in a tube with parabolic contraction followed by the tube section of narrow diameter and conical expansion. The second problem is the numerical study of the start-up of the model small-scale hydrogen electrochemical pulse detonation engine with the use of electrical discharge generating the toroidal SW. The investigation is performed by means of numerical simulation with the use of modern high-performance computing systems.

  2. Factorized cumulant expansion approximation method for turbulence with reacting and mixing chemical elements of type A + B → Product

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meshram, M. C.

    2013-07-01

    The Lewis-Kraichnan space-time version of Hopf functional formalism is considered for the investigation of turbulence with reacting and mixing chemical elements of type A + B → Product. The equations of motion are written in Fourier space. We first define the characteristic functional (or the moments generating functional) for the joint probability distribution of the velocity vector of the flow field and the reactants’ concentration scalar fields and translate the equations of motion in terms of the differential equations for the characteristic functional. These differential equations for the characteristic functional are further written in terms of the second characteristic functional (or the cumulant generating functional). This helps us in obtaining the equations for various order cumulants. We note from these equations for cumulants the characteristic difficulty of the theory of turbulence that the (n + 1)th order cumulant C(n+1) occurs in the equation for the dynamics of nth order cumulant Cn. We use the factorized cumulant expansion approximation method for the present investigation. Under this approximation an arbitrary nth order cumulant Cn is expressed in terms of the lower-order cumulants C(2), C(3) and C(n-1) and thus we obtain a closed but untruncated system of equations for the cumulants. On using the factorized fourth-cumulant approximation method a closed set of equations for the reactants’ energy spectrum functions and the reactants’ energy transfer functions are derived. These equations are solved numerically and the similarity laws of the solutions are derived analytically. The statistical quantities such as the reactants’ energy, the reactants’ enstrophy, the reactants’ scale of segregations and so on are calculated numerically and the statistical laws of these quantities are discussed. Also, the scope of this tool for investigation of turbulent phenomena not covered in the present study is discussed.

  3. Booster propulsion/vehicle impact study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weldon, Vincent; Dunn, Michael; Fink, Lawrence; Phillips, Dwight; Wetzel, Eric

    1988-01-01

    The use of hydrogen RP-1, propane, and methane as fuels for booster engines of launch vehicles is discussed. An automated procedure for integrated launch vehicle, engine sizing, and design optimization was used to define two stage and single stage concepts for minimum dry weight. The two stage vehicles were unmanned and used a flyback booster and partially reusable orbiter. The single stage designs were fully reusable, manned flyback vehicles. Comparisons of these vehicle designs, showing the effects of using different fuels, as well as sensitivity and trending data, are presented. In addition, the automated design technique utilized for the study is described.

  4. Brain drain: the cost of neglected responsibilities in evaluating cumulative effects of environmental chemicals.

    PubMed

    Maffini, Maricel V; Neltner, Thomas G

    2015-05-01

    Developmental disabilities affect millions of people and have a great impact on their lives, their families and the societies where they live. The prevalence of disorders such as autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder as well as subclinical decrements in brain function cannot be explained solely as genetic diseases. Exposures to environmental chemicals, especially during prenatal and early postnatal life, are one likely explanation for some of the decrements. The current chemical risk assessment approach is typically based on the toxicity caused by a single chemical on a variety of organs without acknowledging additional exposures to other chemicals also affecting the same organ or system. We identified more than 300 chemicals allowed in food that may have potential harmful effects on the developing brain. Each individual chemical may or may not have a harmful effect if it were the only one present, but we know next to nothing about their cumulative biological effects on the brain. An expanded cumulative risk assessment approach is needed, and it should focus on health outcomes, like developmental disabilities, arising from the accumulation of effects of multiple chemicals on the brain. The laws regulating the safety of additives already require that regulators in Europe and the USA consider cumulative effects; so far, they seem to have neglected the mandate. We must move beyond treating chemical exposures as isolated incidents and look at their cumulative biological effects on organs and their role in the onset of chronic diseases. The time has come to overhaul chemical risk assessment.

  5. New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

    2016-08-01

    Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

  6. Development Impact Assessment (DIA) Case Study. South Africa

    SciTech Connect

    Cox, Sadie; Nawaz, Kathleen; Sandor, Debra

    2015-05-19

    This case study reviews South Africa’s experience in considering the impacts of climate change action on development goals, focusing on the South African energy sector and development impact assessments (DIAs) that have and could be used to influence energy policy or inform the selection of energy activities. It includes a review of assessments—conducted by government ministries, technical partners, and academic institutes and non-governmental organizations (NGOs)—that consider employment, health, and water implications of possible energy sector actions, as well as multi-criteria impact assessments.

  7. Predicting Cumulative Risk of Disease Onset by Re-distributing Weights

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Tianle; Ma, Yanyuan

    2015-01-01

    We propose a simple approach predicting the cumulative risk of disease accommodating predictors with time-varying effects and outcomes subject to censoring. We use a nonparametric function for the coefficient of the time-varying effect and handle censoring through self-consistency equations that redistribute the probability mass of censored outcomes to the right. The computational procedure is extremely convenient and can be implemented by standard software. We prove large sample properties of the proposed estimator and evaluate its finite sample performance through simulation studies. We apply the method to estimate the cumulative risk of developing Huntington’s disease (HD) from subjects with huntingtin gene mutation using a large collaborative HD study data and illustrate an inverse relationship between the cumulative risk of HD and the length of cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeats in the huntingtin gene. PMID:25847392

  8. Impact of Research on Education: Some Case Studies. Summaries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suppes, Patrick, Ed.

    Significant cases of research in terms of their effect on school practices have been extensively documented by educational researchers. This booklet summarizes nine such studies, which are published in detail in a companion volume ("Impact of Research on Education: Some Case Studies"). These studies have a variety reasonably characteristic of…

  9. Findings of 4-H Impact Studies in Six Western States

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seevers, Brenda S.; Hodnett, Frank; Van Leeuwen, Dawn

    2011-01-01

    Between 2000 and 2007, six western states conducted individual impact studies using public school youth in grades five, seven, and nine. Common areas of study included: risk behaviors, leadership positions held, helping others, close relationships with adults, self-identity, character, self-confidence, and empowerment. The purpose of the study was…

  10. The Impact of Postgraduate Studies on the Teachers' Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ion, Georgeta; Iucu, Romita

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses the perceptions of teachers involved in postgraduate studies of the importance of their study programme for their profession, describes the benefits of postgraduate studies for their practice and examines the strategies used to enhance the impact research they undertake on their teaching. A questionnaire was administered to 161…

  11. AX Tank farm process impacts study

    SciTech Connect

    SKELLY, W.A.

    1999-03-18

    This study provides facility and process concepts and costs for partial decontamination of the most heavily contaminated debris from the demolition of the four AX tanks and ancillary equipment items. This debris would likely be classified as high-level and/or remote handle TRU waste based on source and radiological inventory. A process flow sheet was developed to treat contaminated metal wastes such as pipes and tank liners as well as contaminated concrete and the residual waste and grout left in the tanks after final waste retrieval. The treated solid waste is prepared for delivery to either the ERDF or the Low-Level waste burial grounds. Liquid waste products are delivered to the private vitrification contractor for further treatment and storage. This is one of several reports prepared for use by the Hanford Tanks Initiative Project to develop retrieval performance criteria for tank farms.

  12. Momentum Impact Studies on Solar Cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conner, James Derrick; Collins, W. Eugene; Bullock, S. Ray

    1997-01-01

    One efficient way of propelling a spacecraft in space is by means of a rocket (thruster). It is important to understand the process which governs the action. The propulsion system of all rockets consists of a fuel storage system of which there are many different types, due to the different varieties of fuels. There must also be a fuel transport system. The fuel is then expanded in an expansion region, triggered by some form of combustion, and is then accelerated to the nozzle region where it is expelled through the nozzle. The expelled propellant from the rocket comes out and creates a plume. The plume's interaction with spacecraft structures is the focus of this study.

  13. Intertemporal cumulative radiative forcing effects of photovoltaic deployments.

    PubMed

    Ravikumar, Dwarakanath; Seager, Thomas P; Chester, Mikhail V; Fraser, Matthew P

    2014-09-02

    Current policies accelerating photovoltaics (PV) deployments are motivated by environmental goals, including reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing electricity generated from fossil-fuels. Existing practice assesses environmental benefits on a net life-cycle basis, where displaced GHG emissions offset those generated during PV production. However, this approach does not consider that the environmental costs of GHG release during production are incurred early, while environmental benefits accrue later. Thus, where policy targets suggest meeting GHG reduction goals established by a certain date, rapid PV deployment may have counterintuitive, albeit temporary, undesired consequences. On a cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) basis, the environmental improvements attributable to PV might be realized much later than is currently understood, particularly when PV manufacturing utilizes GHG-intensive energy sources (e.g., coal), but deployment occurs in areas with less GHG-intensive electricity sources (e.g., hydroelectric). This paper details a dynamic CRF model to examine the intertemporal warming impacts of PV deployments in California and Wyoming. CRF payback times are longer than GHG payback times by 6-12 years in California and 6-11 years in Wyoming depending on the PV technology mix and deployment strategy. For the same PV capacity being deployed, early installations yield greater CRF benefits (calculated over 10 and 25 years) than installations occurring later in time. Further, CRF benefits are maximized when PV technologies with the lowest manufacturing GHG footprint (cadmium telluride) are deployed in locations with the most GHG-intensive grids (i.e., Wyoming).

  14. Appraisal and coping as mediators of the effects of cumulative risk on preadolescent adjustment.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Stephanie F; Lengua, Liliana J; Garcia, Connie Meza

    2016-05-01

    This study examined the concurrent and longitudinal relations among cumulative risk, appraisal, coping, and adjustment. Longitudinal path models were tested in a community sample of 316 children in preadolescence to examine hypotheses that threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediate the effects of cumulative risk on child adjustment, whereas positive appraisal and active coping were hypothesized to predict better adjustment independently. Children and their mothers were assessed during in-home interviews at three time points at one-year intervals. Children reported on appraisal and coping strategies. Mothers and children reported on child adjustment problems and positive adjustment. Rank-order changes in appraisal and coping predicted rank-order changes in adjustment. Cumulative risk was concurrently related to higher threat appraisal and avoidant coping at each time point. Threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediated the relations of cumulative risk to rank-order changes in adjustment. There is specificity in the relations of cumulative risk to threat appraisal and avoidant coping, whereas positive appraisal and active coping are independent of risk and operate as individual resource factors.

  15. The impact of migraine: a case study.

    PubMed

    Jung, Sharon

    2007-08-01

    Migraine headaches are common and among the most disabling nonfatal conditions of humankind. They are frequently misdiagnosed, which may lead to undertreatment. Patients often self-diagnose and self-medicate, resulting in inadequate treatment. Consequently, patients may take additional doses, trying to gain relief with inappropriate medications. Rebound can ensue. With adequate treatment, a patient's condition and quality of life may improve considerably. Patient education is extremely important to help patients identify appropriate self-care measures, such as identification of triggering events and coping with the chronic nature of their condition. This case study presents a patient who began experiencing migraines following a neck injury. His headaches became more frequent, and ergotamine and caffeine (Cafergot) suppositories were prescribed. When he presented, he was experiencing daily headaches and using daily ergotamine and caffeine suppositories. He was using the emergency department (ED) frequently because of severe headaches. Cervical spasm was recognized as his trigger, and the ergotamine and caffeine suppositories were discontinued. After 3 days of severe headaches, his rebound ceased. He reverted back to episodic migraines, which he treated with zolmitriptan (Zomig) nasal spray, which was effective. His cervical spasm was treated with botulinum toxin type A (Botox), with excellent results. He has maintained reasonable headache control for 2 years.

  16. Longhi Games, Internal Reservoirs, and Cumulate Porosity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morse, S. A.

    2009-05-01

    Fe in plagioclase at an early age, T-rollers (or not) on the Di-Trid boundary in Fo-Di-Sil, the mantle solidus, origins of anorthosites, esoteric uses of Schreinemakers rules and many more topics are all fresh and pleasant memories of John Longhi's prolific and creative work. The Fram-Longhi experimental effect of pressure on plagioclase partitioning with liquid in mafic rocks became essential to an understanding of multiphase Rayleigh fractionation of plagioclase in big layered intrusions. Only by using the pressure effect could I find a good equation through the data for the Kiglapait intrusion, and that result among others required the existence with probability 1.0 of an internal reservoir (Morse, JPet 2008). Knowledge of cumulate porosity is a crucial key to the understanding of layered igneous rocks. We seek both the initial (inverse packing fraction) and residual porosity to find the time and process path from sedimentation to solidification. In the Kiglapait Lower Zone we have a robust estimate of mean residual porosity from the modes of the excluded phases augite, oxides, sulfide, and apatite. To this we apply the maximum variance of plagioclase composition (the An range) to find an algorithm that extends through the Upper Zone and to other intrusions. Of great importance is that all these measurements were made in grain mounts concentrated from typically about 200 g of core or hand specimen, hence the represented sample volume is thousands of times greater than for a thin section. The resulting distribution and scatter of the An range is novel and remarkable. It is V-shaped in the logarithmic representation of stratigraphic height, running from about 20 mole % at both ends (base to top of the Layered Series) to near-zero at 99 PCS. The intercept of the porosity-An range relation gives An range = 3.5 % at zero residual porosity. Petrographic analysis reveals that for PCS less than 95 and greater than 99.9, the An range is intrinsic, i.e. pre-cumulus, for

  17. Correlations of smoking with cumulative total dust exposure and cumulative abnormal rate of pulmonary function in coal-mine workers

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Qing-Zeng; Cao, Xiang-Ke; Shen, Fu-Hai; Wang, Qian

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the correlation of smoking with cumulative total dust exposure (CTE) and cumulative abnormal rate of pulmonary function in coal-mine workers. A total of 376 coal-mine workers were recruited as the observational group, while 179 healthy workers in other industries were selected as the control group. All the workers underwent pulmonary function testing to determine their forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and FEV1/FVC, in order to compare the abnormal pulmonary function between the two groups. A markedly higher number of smokers was observed in the observational group (200/376, 53.19%) when compared with the control group (72/179, 40.22%). In smokers, the abnormal rate of pulmonary function in the observational group (102/200, 51.00%) was evidently higher compared with that in the control group (19/72, 26.39%), whereas no significant difference was detected between the two groups of non-smokers (P=0.077). In addition, FVC, FEV1 and FEV1/FVC of the observational group were found to be lower compared with those in the control group, in both the smoking and non-smoking subgroups. In the smoking subgroup, FVC and FEV1 in subjects working at the coal mine for different number of years showed significant differences (all P<0.05), whereas comparison of FEV1/FVC in workers with different working durations showed no significant difference (P=0.169). However, in the non-smoking subgroup, the comparison of FVC, FEV1 and FEV1/FVC in different working duration groups also showed no significant difference (all P>0.05). Furthermore, FVC, FEV1 and FEV1/FVC in smoking coal-mine workers were negatively correlated with the dust-exposure working duration (P<0.05). CTE was also positively correlated with cumulative abnormal rate of pulmonary function in the smoking and non-smoking subgroups, while FEV1 was negatively correlated with CTE in the smoking subgroup (P=0.009). In conclusion, smoking is an important

  18. CUMULATIVE PM2.5 EXPOSURE AND TELOMERE LENGTH IN WORKERS EXPOSED TO WELDING FUMES

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Jason Y. Y.; De Vivo, Immaculata; Lin, Xihong; Christiani, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Telomeres are genomic structures that reflect both mitotic history and biochemical trauma to the genome. Metals inherent in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were shown to be genotoxic via oxidative damage. However, few studies investigated the induction time of cumulative PM2.5 exposure on telomere length in a longitudinal setting. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the association between occupational PM2.5 exposure in various time windows and telomere length. The study population consisted of 48 boilermakers and the follow-up period was 8 yr. The main exposures were cumulative occupational PM2.5 in the month, year, and career prior to each blood draw, assessed via work history questionnaires and area air measures. Repeated telomere length measurements from leukocytes were assessed via real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Analysis was performed using linear mixed models controlling for confounders and white blood cell differentials. Cumulative PM2.5 exposure was treated continuously and categorized into quartiles, in separate analyses. At any follow-up time, for each milligram per cubic meter per hour increase in cumulative PM2.5 exposure in the prior month, there was a statistically significant decrease in relative telomere length of −0.04 units. When categorizing the exposure into quartiles, there was a significant negative association between telomere length and highest quartile of cumulative PM2.5 exposure in the prior month (−0.16). These findings suggest that genomic trauma to leukocyte telomeres was more consistent with recent occupational PM2.5 exposure, as opposed to cumulative exposure extending into the distant past. PMID:24627998

  19. Behavior and finite-size effects of the sixth order cumulant in the three-dimensional Ising universality class

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Xue; Chen, Li-Zhu; Wu, Yuan-Fang

    2016-09-01

    The high-order cumulants of conserved charges are suggested to be sensitive observables to search for the critical point of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). This has been calculated to the sixth order in experiments. Corresponding theoretical studies on the sixth order cumulant are necessary. Based on the universality of the critical behavior, we study the temperature dependence of the sixth order cumulant of the order parameter using the parametric representation of the three-dimensional Ising model, which is expected to be in the same universality class as QCD. The density plot of the sign of the sixth order cumulant is shown on the temperature and external magnetic field plane. We found that at non-zero external magnetic field, when the critical point is approached from the crossover side, the sixth order cumulant has a negative valley. The width of the negative valley narrows with decreasing external field. Qualitatively, the trend is similar to the result of Monte Carlo simulation on a finite-size system. Quantitatively, the temperature of the sign change is different. Through Monte Carlo simulation of the Ising model, we calculated the sixth order cumulant of different sizes of systems. We discuss the finite-size effects on the temperature at which the cumulant changes sign. Supported by Fund Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education (16ZB0339), Fund Project of Chengdu Technological University for Doctor (2016RC004), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (11405088, 11221504)

  20. Cumulative systolic blood pressure exposure in relation to cognitive function in middle-aged and elderly adults

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jie; Huang, Yuling; Chen, Guojuan; Liu, Xiaoxue; Wang, Zhijun; Cao, Yibin; Li, Haitao; Song, Lu; Li, Chunhui; Zhao, Hualing; Chen, Shuohua; Wang, Yiming; Zhang, Ruiying; Wang, Anxin; Wu, Shouling

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cognitive function is controversial in elderly adults. In addition, few studies focused on the cumulative effect of SBP. We aimed to investigate the association between cumulative SBP exposure and cognitive function among middle-aged and elderly adults. The analysis was based on the Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities Community (APAC) study. The primary predictor was the cumulative SBP calculated by consecutive SBP values measured through baseline (2006–2007) up to the fourth examination (2012–2013). The cognitive function was estimated by mini-mental state examination (MMSE) in the fourth examination. Linear regression and logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the association between cumulative SBP and cognitive function. Among 2211 participants (41.4% female, aged 40–94 years), 167 (7.55%) were diagnosed with cognitive impairment (MMSE score < 24). Higher cumulative exposure to SBP (per SD increment) was independently associated with poor cognitive performance after controlling for multiple factors (P < 0.001). We observed nondifferential association between men and women. However, higher cumulative SBP in the adults aged ≥60 years had a stronger association with poor cognitive performance compared with that in adults aged 40 to 60 years. Greater exposure to cumulative SBP is associated with worse cognitive performance among middle-aged and elderly adults. This association is similar between men and women, but stronger in elderly adults. PMID:27902618

  1. Mothering and Peer Associations Mediate Cumulative Risk Effects for Latino Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loukas, Alexandra; Prelow, Hazel M.; Suizzo, Marie-Anne; Allua, Shane

    2008-01-01

    The present study examined whether positive parenting and deviant peer associations mediated the relations between a cumulative risk composite comprising financial strain, neighborhood problems, and maternal psychological distress and subsequent youth adjustment problems. Drawn from the Welfare, Children, and Families: A Three City Study, the…

  2. Cumulative Adverse Financial Circumstances: Associations with Patient Health Status and Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bisgaier, Joanna; Rhodes, Karin V.

    2011-01-01

    This article examines associations between cumulative adverse financial circumstances and patient health in a sample of 1,506 urban emergency department (ED) patients. Study participants completed a previously validated Social Health Survey between May and October 2009. Five categories of economic deprivation were studied: food insecurity, housing…

  3. Impact comparative study of phone carcasses behavior by FEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Constantin, Cărăuşu; Plăvănescu, Simona; Dumitru, Nedelcu

    2015-07-01

    A constant concern of scientific research is based on plastics replace with biodegradable materials that reduce the adverse impact of waste on the environment. A biodegradable material that arouses interest lately is Arboform which is made of lignin, a component of wood and woody plants. Replacing plastic with Arboform in carrying components of products requires technical and economic studies on the implications of such replacement. Numerical simulation methods are a fast and economical way of analyzing the behavior of a product in various mechanical, thermal, electromagnetic and so on. The paper presents comparative results of numerical simulation using the software package SolidWorks impact behavior through the “Drop Test” of half shells made of High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) and of the Arboform LV3 Nature. Simulation watched the half-carcass behavior in three cases of accidental impact, “head”, “corner” and the “back side”. We analyzed the size and location of the maximum voltage and maximum deformation resulting from impact. Simulations have shown for all three cases a maximum voltage increase when using Arboform to use PEDH 93% for impact “forward” and “corner” and only 48.77% “back side” impact. If the maximum displacement, it increasing from carcasses of Arboform 4% for impact “head” and 6% for impact “corner”, but fell by 2.7% for the “back side” impact. The significant increase of stress can be attributed to the higher density of Arboform to PEDH, which led to different weights of the two half-carcasses.

  4. Cumulative clinical pregnancy rates after COH and IUI in subfertile couples.

    PubMed

    Farhi, Jacob; Orvieto, Raoul

    2010-07-01

    To evaluate the influence of female age and cause of infertility on the outcome of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) and intrauterine insemination (IUI), we studied 2717 COH cycles in 1035 subfertile couples. The cumulative clinical pregnancy rates were 39% and 58% after three and six COH cycles, respectively. The cumulative pregnancy rate significantly decreased with maternal age and differed by cause of infertility. The cumulative pregnancy rate continued to increase with an increase in COH cycle number up to the third, or forth cycle, in patients with mechanical and combined infertility, respectively, and in up to the second cycle in patients aged 40 years or more. These findings provide treatment guidelines for clinicians in determining the likelihood of treatment success and the point at which to proceed to the next treatment strategy.

  5. Adaptive gamma correction based on cumulative histogram for enhancing near-infrared images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Zhenghua; Zhang, Tianxu; Li, Qian; Fang, Hao

    2016-11-01

    Histogram-based methods have been proven their ability in image enhancement. To improve low contrast while preserving details and high brightness in near-infrared images, a novel method called adaptive gamma correction based on cumulative histogram (AGCCH) is studied in this paper. This novel image enhancement method improves the contrast of local pixels through adaptive gamma correction (AGC), which is formed by incorporating a cumulative histogram or cumulative sub-histogram into the weighting distribution. Both qualitatively and quantitatively, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed image enhancement with the AGCCH method can perform well in brightness preservation, contrast enhancement, and detail preservation, and it is superior to previous state-of-the-art methods.

  6. Investigation of the cumulative diminution process using the Fibonacci method and fractional calculus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buyukkilic, F.; Ok Bayrakdar, Z.; Demirhan, D.

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we investigate the cumulative diminution phenomenon for a physical quantity and a diminution process with a constant acquisition quantity in each step in a viscous medium. We analyze the existence of a dynamical mechanism that underlies the success of fractional calculus ​compared with standard mathematics for describing stochastic processes by ​proposing a Fibonacci approach, where we assume that the complex processes evolves cumulatively in fractal space and discrete time. ​Thus, when the differential-integral order α is attained, this indicates the ​involvement of the viscosity of the medium ​in the evolving process. The future value of the diminishing physical quantity is obtained in terms of the Mittag-Leffler function (MLF) and two rheological laws ​are inferred from the asymptotic limits. Thus, we conclude that the differential-integral calculus of fractional mathematics implicitly embodies the cumulative diminution mechanism ​that occurs in a viscous medium.

  7. Testing Assumptions: The Impact of Two Study Abroad Program Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norris, Emily Mohajeri; Dwyer, Mary M.

    2005-01-01

    There are many untested, long-held assumptions within the field of study abroad concerning the impact of program elements such as study duration, language of instruction, program models, and student housing choices. One assumption embraced within the field is that direct enrollment (or full immersion) programs are more effective at achieving a…

  8. Multiple Case Study on Cyberbullying's Impacts on Adolescent Technology Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Kent W.

    2013-01-01

    This multiple case study focused on whether and how cyberbullying had an impact on students' use of technology. Analysis of the lived experiences of the participants in this study added depth to the quantitative research previously conducted by others in this area. The conceptual framework was based on social learning theory, which suggested that…

  9. An Assessment of Cumulative Axial and Torsional Fatigue in a Cobalt-Base Superalloy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalluri, Sreeramesh; Bonacuse, Peter J.

    2010-01-01

    Cumulative fatigue under axial and torsional loading conditions can include both load-order (higMow and low/high) as well as load-type sequence (axial/torsional and torsional/axial) effects. Previously reported experimental studies on a cobalt-base superalloy, Haynes 188 at 538 C, addressed these effects. These studies characterized the cumulative axial and torsional fatigue behavior under high amplitude followed by low amplitude (Kalluri, S. and Bonacuse, P. J., "Cumulative Axial and Torsional Fatigue: An Investigation of Load-Type Sequance Effects," in Multiaxial Fatigue and Deformation: Testing and Prediction, ASTM STP 1387, S. Kalluri, and P. J. Bonacuse, Eds., American Society for Testing and Materials, West Conshohocken, PA, 2000, pp. 281-301) and low amplitude followed by high amplitude (Bonacuse, P. and Kalluri, S. "Sequenced Axial and Torsional Cumulative Fatigue: Low Amplitude Followed by High Amplitude Loading," Biaxial/Multiaxial Fatigue and Fracture, ESIS Publication 31, A. Carpinteri, M. De Freitas, and A. Spagnoli, Eds., Elsevier, New York, 2003, pp. 165-182) conditions. In both studies, experiments with the following four load-type sequences were performed: (a) axial/axial, (b) torsional/torsional, (c) axial/torsional, and (d) torsional/axial. In this paper, the cumulative axial and torsional fatigue data generated in the two previous studies are combined to generate a comprehensive cumulative fatigue database on both the load-order and load-type sequence effects. This comprehensive database is used to examine applicability of the Palmgren-langer-Miner linear damage rule and a nonlinear damage curve approach for Haynes 188 subjected to the load-order and load-type sequencing described above. Summations of life fractions from the experiments are compared to the predictions from both the linear and nonlinear cumulative fatigue damage approaches. The significance of load-order versus load-type sequence effects for axial and torsional loading conditions

  10. Cumulative incidence and risk factors for limber tail in the Dogslife labrador retriever cohort

    PubMed Central

    de C. Bronsvoort, B. M.; Handel, I. G.; Rose, E.; Summers, K.; Clements, D. N.

    2016-01-01

    Limber tail is a condition that typically affects larger working breeds causing tail limpness and pain, resolving without veterinary intervention. It is poorly understood and the disease burden has not been well characterised. Data collected from owners of the Dogslife cohort of Labrador Retrievers have been used to describe incidents and a case–control study was undertaken to elucidate risk factors with 38 cases and 86 controls. The cumulative incidence of unexplained tail limpness was 9.7 per cent. Swimming is not a necessary precursor for limber tail, but it is a risk factor (OR=4.7) and working dogs were more susceptible than non-working dogs (OR=5.1). Higher latitudes were shown to be a risk factor for developing the condition and the case dogs were more related to each other than might be expected by chance. This suggests that dogs may have an underlying genetic predisposition to developing the condition. This study is the first, large-scale investigation of limber tail and the findings reveal an unexpectedly high illness burden. Anecdotally, accepted risk factors have been confirmed and the extent of their impact has been quantified. Identifying latitude and a potential underlying genetic predisposition suggests avenues for future work on this painful and distressing condition. PMID:27353875

  11. The Role of Violent Media Preference in Cumulative Developmental Risk for Violence and General Aggression

    PubMed Central

    Huesmann, L. Rowell; Bushman, Brad J.; O'Brien, Maureen; Moceri, Dominic

    2015-01-01

    The impact of exposure to violence in the media on the long-term development and short-term expression of aggressive behavior has been well documented. However, gaps in this literature remain, and in particular the role of violent media exposure in shaping violent and other serious antisocial behavior has not been investigated. Further, studies of violent media effects typically have not sampled from populations with confirmed histories of violent and/or nonviolent antisocial behavior. In this study, we analyzed data on 820 youth, including 390 juvenile delinquents and 430 high school students, to examine the relation of violent media use to involvement in violence and general aggression. Using criterion scores developed through cross-informant modeling of data from self, parent/guardian, and teacher/staff reports, we observed that childhood and adolescent violent media preferences contributed significantly to the prediction of violence and general aggression from cumulative risk totals. Findings represent a new and important direction for research on the role of violent media use in the broader matrix of risk factors for youth violence. PMID:19636754

  12. The role of violent media preference in cumulative developmental risk for violence and general aggression.

    PubMed

    Boxer, Paul; Huesmann, L Rowell; Bushman, Brad J; O'Brien, Maureen; Moceri, Dominic

    2009-03-01

    The impact of exposure to violence in the media on the long-term development and short-term expression of aggressive behavior has been well documented. However, gaps in this literature remain, and in particular the role of violent media exposure in shaping violent and other serious antisocial behavior has not been investigated. Further, studies of violent media effects typically have not sampled from populations with confirmed histories of violent and/or nonviolent antisocial behavior. In this study, we analyzed data on 820 youth, including 390 juvenile delinquents and 430 high school students, to examine the relation of violent media use to involvement in violence and general aggression. Using criterion scores developed through cross-informant modeling of data from self, parent/guardian, and teacher/staff reports, we observed that childhood and adolescent violent media preferences contributed significantly to the prediction of violence and general aggression from cumulative risk totals. Findings represent a new and important direction for research on the role of violent media use in the broader matrix of risk factors for youth violence.

  13. Rate and Velocity of Climate Change Caused by Cumulative Carbon Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S. J.; LoPresti, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Randerson, J. T.; Woodard, D.; Charland, A.

    2015-12-01

    International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO2 emissions of 4,620 Gt CO2 (reached in 2100 in RCP4.5 and 2057 in RCP8.5) produce globally averaged warming rates that are nearly twice as fast in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (0.34±0.08°C per decade versus 0.19±0.05°C per decade, respectively). Similarly, the globally averaged velocity of climate change calculated according to the "nearest equivalent climate" is greater by a factor of ~2 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 (2.51±0.67 km y-1 versus 1.32 ± 0.39 km y-1, respectively), despite equivalent cumulative emissions. These differences in the projected velocity of climate change represent uncertainty for ecosystems that may be unable to adapt to the faster changes. Particularly at risk are boreal forests, of which 48% are projected to experience rates of change beyond their expected adaptive capacity (i.e. >0.3°C per decade) in RCP4.5, compared with 95% in RCP8.5. Thus, the same budget of cumulative carbon emissions may result in critically different impacts on natural and human systems, depending on the amount of time over which that budget is expended.

  14. Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LoPresti, Anna; Charland, Allison; Woodard, Dawn; Randerson, James; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Davis, Steven J.

    2015-09-01

    International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO2 emissions of 4620 Gt CO2 (reached in 2100 in RCP4.5 and 2057 in RCP8.5) produce globally averaged warming rates that are nearly twice as fast in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (0.34 ± 0.08 °C per decade versus 0.19 ± 0.05 °C per decade, respectively). Similarly, the globally averaged velocity of climate change calculated according to the ‘nearest equivalent climate’ is greater by a factor of ˜2 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 (2.51 ± 0.67 km yr-1 versus 1.32 ± 0.39 km yr-1, respectively), despite equivalent cumulative emissions. These differences in the projected velocity of climate change represent uncertainty for ecosystems that may be unable to adapt to the faster changes. Particularly at risk are boreal forests, of which 48% are projected to experience rates of change beyond their expected adaptive capacity (i.e. >0.3 °C per decade) in RCP4.5, compared with 95% in RCP8.5. Thus, the same budget of cumulative carbon emissions may result in critically different impacts on natural and human systems, depending on the amount of time over which that budget is expended.

  15. Cumulative reaction probabilities and transition state properties: A study of the H{sup +}+H{sub 2} and H{sup +}+D{sub 2} proton exchange reactions

    SciTech Connect

    Jambrina, P. G.; Aoiz, F. J.; Eyles, C. J.; Herrero, V. J.; Saez Rabanos, V.

    2009-05-14

    Cumulative reaction probabilities (CRPs) have been calculated by accurate (converged, close coupling) quantum mechanical (QM), quasiclassical trajectory (QCT), and statistical QCT (SQCT) methods for the H{sup +}+H{sub 2} and H{sup +}+D{sub 2} reactions at collision energies up to 1.2 eV and total angular momentum J=0-4. A marked resonance structure is found in the QM CRP, most especially for the H{sub 3}{sup +} system and J=0. When the CRPs are resolved in their ortho and para contributions, a clear steplike structure is found associated with the opening of internal states of reactants and products. The comparison of the QCT results with those of the other methods evinces the occurrence of two transition states, one at the entrance and one at the exit. At low J values, except for the quantal resonance structure and the lack of quantization in the product channel, the agreement between QM and QCT is very good. The SQCT model, that reflects the steplike structure associated with the opening of initial and final states accurately, clearly tends to overestimate the value of the CRP as the collision energy increases. This effect seems more marked for the H{sup +}+D{sub 2} isotopic variant. For sufficiently high J values, the growth of the centrifugal barrier leads to an increase in the threshold of the CRP. At these high J values the discrepancy between SQCT and QCT becomes larger and is magnified with growing collision energy. The total CRPs calculated with the QCT and SQCT methods allowed the determination of the rate constant for the H{sup +}+D{sub 2} reaction. It was found that the rate, in agreement with experiment, decreases with temperature as expected for an endothermic reaction. In the range of temperatures between 200 and 500 K the differences between SQCT and QCT rate results are relatively minor. Although exact QM calculations are formidable for an exact determination of the k(T), it can be reliably expected that their value will lie between those given by

  16. Finite-time full counting statistics and factorial cumulants for transport through a quantum dot with normal and superconducting leads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droste, Stephanie; Governale, Michele

    2016-04-01

    We study the finite-time full counting statistics for subgap transport through a single-level quantum dot tunnel-coupled to one normal and one superconducting lead. In particular, we determine the factorial and the ordinary cumulants both for finite times and in the long-time limit. We find that the factorial cumulants violate the sign criterion, indicating a non-binomial distribution, even in absence of Coulomb repulsion due to the presence of superconducting correlations. At short times the cumulants exhibit oscillations which are a signature of the coherent transfer of Cooper pairs between the dot and the superconductor.

  17. Considerations of circadian impact for defining 'shift work' in cancer studies: IARC Working Group Report.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Richard G; Hansen, Johnni; Costa, Giovanni; Haus, Erhard; Kauppinen, Timo; Aronson, Kristan J; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Davis, Scott; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Fritschi, Lin; Kogevinas, Manolis; Kogi, Kazutaka; Lie, Jenny-Anne; Lowden, Arne; Peplonska, Beata; Pesch, Beate; Pukkala, Eero; Schernhammer, Eva; Travis, Ruth C; Vermeulen, Roel; Zheng, Tongzhang; Cogliano, Vincent; Straif, Kurt

    2011-02-01

    Based on the idea that electric light at night might account for a portion of the high and rising risk of breast cancer worldwide, it was predicted long ago that women working a non-day shift would be at higher risk compared with day-working women. This hypothesis has been extended more recently to prostate cancer. On the basis of limited human evidence and sufficient evidence in experimental animals, in 2007 the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified 'shift work that involves circadian disruption' as a probable human carcinogen, group 2A. A limitation of the epidemiological studies carried out to date is in the definition of 'shift work.' IARC convened a workshop in April 2009 to consider how 'shift work' should be assessed and what domains of occupational history need to be quantified for more valid studies of shift work and cancer in the future. The working group identified several major domains of non-day shifts and shift schedules that should be captured in future studies: (1) shift system (start time of shift, number of hours per day, rotating or permanent, speed and direction of a rotating system, regular or irregular); (2) years on a particular non-day shift schedule (and cumulative exposure to the shift system over the subject's working life); and (3) shift intensity (time off between successive work days on the shift schedule). The group also recognised that for further domains to be identified, more research needs to be conducted on the impact of various shift schedules and routines on physiological and circadian rhythms of workers in real-world environments.

  18. A Modeling System to Examine Near-Road and Near-Source Air Toxics for Community-Scale Cumulative Assessments.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative assessments consider a range of potential stressors that might impact the health of a receptor, such as a local neighborhood or wetland area. When receptors are located near pollution sources such as highways or ports (within 500-1,000 m), then they could be at risk of...

  19. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  20. Effect of Cumulative Damage on Rocket Motor Service Life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gligorijević, Nikola; Živković, Saša; Subotić, Sredoje; Rodić, Vesna; Gligorijević, Ivan

    2015-10-01

    Two series of antihail rocket propellant grains failed only 3 months after production, due to the appearance of cracks in the grain channel. Structural integrity analysis demonstrated sufficient reliability at the beginning of service life. Further analysis showed that under temperature loads, cumulative damage during the short period in field stocks caused the grain failure, despite the established opinion that such failure can become significant only after lengthy storage. A linear cumulative damage law is evaluated by exposing a number of hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) composite propellant specimens to different but constant stress levels. The analysis showed that cumulative damage must not be overlooked at the design stage. Further, a positive correlation between the propellant cumulative damage law and tensile strength is strongly indicated.

  1. Tools to Assess Community-Based Cumulative Risk and Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multiple agents and stressors can interact in a given community to adversely affect human and ecological conditions. A cumulative risk assessment (CRA) analyzes, characterizes, and potentially quantifies the effects from multiple stressors, which include chemical agents (for exam...

  2. Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT Recent efforts to update cumulative risk assessment procedures to incorporate nonchemical stressors ranging from physical to psychosocial, reflect increased interest in consideratio of the totality of variables affecting human health and the growing desire to develop co...

  3. A MISSING LINK IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUMULATIVE RECORDER

    PubMed Central

    Asano, Toshio; Lattal, Kennon A

    2012-01-01

    A recently recovered cumulative recorder provides a missing link in the evolution of the cumulative recorder from a modified kymograph to a reliably operating, scientifically and commercially successful instrument. The recorder, the only physical evidence of such an early precommercial cumulative recorder yet found, was sent to Keio University in Tokyo, Japan, in 1952 at the behest of B. F. Skinner at Harvard University. Last used in research in the late 1960s, the cumulative recorder remained locked in a storage room until 2007, when it was found again. A historical context for the recorder is followed by a description of the recorder and a comparison between it and the commercially successful Gerbrands Model C-1 recorder. Labeled the Keio recorder, it is a testament to Skinner's persistence in developing a reliable means of quantifying the behavior of living organisms in real time. PMID:23008524

  4. A missing link in the evolution of the cumulative recorder.

    PubMed

    Asano, Toshio; Lattal, Kennon A

    2012-09-01

    A recently recovered cumulative recorder provides a missing link in the evolution of the cumulative recorder from a modified kymograph to a reliably operating, scientifically and commercially successful instrument. The recorder, the only physical evidence of such an early precommercial cumulative recorder yet found, was sent to Keio University in Tokyo, Japan, in 1952 at the behest of B. F. Skinner at Harvard University. Last used in research in the late 1960s, the cumulative recorder remained locked in a storage room until 2007, when it was found again. A historical context for the recorder is followed by a description of the recorder and a comparison between it and the commercially successful Gerbrands Model C-1 recorder. Labeled the Keio recorder, it is a testament to Skinner's persistence in developing a reliable means of quantifying the behavior of living organisms in real time.

  5. Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

    PubMed

    Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

    2016-05-01

    Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p < 0.05). In hierarchical regression analyses, total cumulative stress and chronic stress each was significantly associated with SDNN and ULF even after the highly significant contributions of age and sex, with no other covariates accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

  6. Aeronautical engineering: A cumulative index to a continuing bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1987-01-01

    This bibliography is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in NASA SP-7037 (197) through NASA SP-7037 (208) of Aeronautical Engineering: A Continuing Bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, foreign technology, contract, report number, and accession number indexes.

  7. A cumulative index to Aeronautical Engineering: A continuing bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    This bibliography is a cumulated index to the abstracts contained in NASA SP-7037(132) through NASA SP-7037(143) of Aeronautical Engineering: A continuing bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, contract, and report number indexes.

  8. Aeronautical engineering: A cumulative index to a continuing bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    This bibliography is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in NASA SP-7037(210) through NASA SP-7037(221) of Aeronautical Engineering: A Continuing Bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, foreign technology, contract number, report number, and accession number indexes.

  9. A cumulative index to a continuing bibliography on aeronautical engineering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    This bibliography is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in NASA-SP-7037(184) through NASA-SP-7037(195) of Aeronautical Engineering: A Continuing Bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, foreign technology, contract, report number, and accession number indexes.

  10. Aeronautical Engineering: A continuing bibliography, 1982 cumulative index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1983-01-01

    This bibliography is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in NASA SP-7037 (145) through NASA SP-7037 (156) of Aeronautical Engineering: A Continuing Bibliography. NASA SP-7037 and its supplements have been compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This cumulative index includes subject, personal author, corporate source, contract, and report number indexes.

  11. The Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM): Studying the geophysics of small binaries, measuring asteroid deflection and studying impact physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kueppers, Michael; Michel, Patrick; AIM Team

    2016-10-01

    Binary asteroids and their formation mechanisms are of particular interest for understanding the evolution of the small bodies in the solar system. Also, hazards to Earth from impact of near-Earth asteroids and their mitigation have drawn considerable interest over the last decades.Those subjects are both addressed by ESA's Asteroid Impact mission, which is part of the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) currently under study in collaboration between NASA and ESA. NASA's DART mission will impact a projectile into the minor component of the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos in 2022. The basic idea is to demonstrate the effect of the impact on the orbital period of the secondary around the primary. ESA's AIM will monitor the Didymos system for several months around the DART impact time.AIM will be launched in aurumn 2020. It is foreseen to arrive at Didymos in April 2022. The mission takes advantage of a close approach of Didymos to Earth. The next opportunity would arise in 2040 only.AIM will stay near Didymos for approximately 6 months. Most of the time it will be placed on the illuminated side of the system, at distances of approximately 35 km and 10 km. AIM is expected to move away from Didymos for some time around the DART impact.The reference payload for AIM includes two visual imagers, a hyperspectral camera, a lidar, a thermal infrared imager, a monostatic high frequency radar, and a bistatic low frequency radar. In addition, AIM will deploy a small lander on the secondary asteroid, and two cubesats that will be used for additional, more risky investigations close to or on the surface of the asteroid.Major contributions from AIM are expected in the study of the geophysics of small asteroids (including for the first time, radar measurements of an interior structure), the formation of binary asteroids, the momentum enhancement factor from the DART impact (through measuring the mass and the change of orbit of the seondary), and impact physics

  12. Separate and Cumulative Effects of Adverse Childhood Experiences in Predicting Adult Health and Health Care Utilization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chartier, Mariette J.; Walker, John R.; Naimark, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: Objectives of this population-based study were: (1) to examine the relative contribution of childhood abuse and other adverse childhood experiences to poor adult health and increased health care utilization and (2) to examine the cumulative effects of adverse childhood experiences on adult health and health care utilization. Methods:…

  13. Kindling Fires: Examining the Potential for Cumulative Learning in a Journalism Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilpert, Leigh; Shay, Suellen

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated context-dependency of learning as an indicator for students' potential to continue learning after graduation. We used Maton's theoretical concepts of "cumulative" and "segmented" learning, and "semantic gravity", to look for context-independent learning in students' assessments in a Journalism…

  14. Cumulative Effects of in Uetro Administration of Mixtures of "Antiandrogens" on Male Rat Reproductive Development

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although risk assessments are typically conducted on a chemical-by-chemical basis, the 1996 FQPA required the EPA to consider cumulative risk of chemicals that act via a common mechanism of toxicity. To this end, we are conducting studies with mixtures to provide a framework for ...

  15. A Test of the Cumulative Acquisition Model of Adolescent News Media Use.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tims, Albert R.; Chaffee, Steven H.

    A study tested the cumulative acquisition model proposed by S. H. Chaffee and A. R. Tims to explain the development of adolescent patterns of news media use. The Guttman scale procedure was used to analyze patterns of news media use across a three-wave panel survey of 366 parent-child pairs over a 2-year period. In each wave, interviewers talked…

  16. Cumulative effects of in utero administration of mixtures of "antiandrogens" on male rat reproductive development

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although risk assessments are typically conducted on a chemical-by-chemical basis, the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act requires the USEPA to consider cumulative risk of chemicals that act via a common mechanism of toxicity. To this end, we are conducting studies to provide a fra...

  17. Low Fruit/Vegetable Consumption in the Home: Cumulative Risk Factors in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ward, Wendy L.; Swindle, Taren M.; Kyzer, Angela L.; Whiteside-Mansell, Leanne

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative risk theory suggests that a variety of social risk factors would have an additive effect on obesity risk. Multiple studies have suggested that obesity is related to basic resources such as transportation and financial resources. Additional research points to parental engagement and parental monitoring as additional sources of risk. This…

  18. Cumulative Risk Disparities in Children's Neurocognitive Functioning: A Developmental Cascade Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wade, Mark; Browne, Dillon T.; Plamondon, Andre; Daniel, Ella; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The current longitudinal study examined the role of cumulative social risk on children's theory of mind (ToM) and executive functioning (EF) across early development. Further, we also tested a cascade model of development in which children's social cognition at 18 months was hypothesized to predict ToM and EF at age 4.5 through intermediary…

  19. Unraveling the Link between Trauma and Male Delinquency: The Cumulative Versus Differential Risk Perspectives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maschi, Tina

    2006-01-01

    This study examined how the cumulative (additive) versus differential (individual) effects of trauma influenced male delinquency. Using a comprehensive measure of trauma, a secondary data analysis was conducted on a nationally representative sample of male youths between the ages of 12 and 17. Logistic regression analyses revealed that all three…

  20. Cumulative Family Risk Predicts Increases in Adjustment Difficulties across Early Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buehler, Cheryl; Gerard, Jean M.

    2013-01-01

    Family is an important socialization context for youth as they move through early adolescence. A significant feature of this complex socialization context is the accumulation of potential family risk factors that may compromise youth adjustment. This study examined cumulative family risk and adolescents' adjustment difficulties in 416 two-parent…

  1. Child Temperamental Regulation and Classroom Quality in Head Start: Considering the Role of Cumulative Economic Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudasill, Kathleen Moritz; Hawley, Leslie R.; LoCasale-Crouch, Jennifer; Buhs, Eric S.

    2017-01-01

    There is growing recognition that cumulative economic risk places children at higher risk for depressed academic competencies (Crosnoe & Cooper, 2010; NCCP, 2008; Sameroff, 2000). Yet, children's temperamental regulation and the quality of the early childhood classroom environment have been associated with better academic skills. This study is…

  2. Are Effects of Small Classes Cumulative? Evidence from a Tennessee Experiment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nye, Barbara; Hedges, Larry V.; Konstantopoulos, Spyros

    2001-01-01

    Used data from Tennessee's Project STAR, a longitudinal class size experiment, to study the cumulative effects of reduced class size in the early grades on academic achievement. Results indicated that controlling for achievement in the previous year, small classes in grades 1-3 yielded statistically significant additional positive effects on…

  3. Cumulative Risk and Teacher Well-Being in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolf, Sharon; Torrente, Catalina; McCoy, Marissa; Rasheed, Damira; Aber, J. Lawrence

    2015-01-01

    Remarkably little systematic research has examined the living and working conditions for teachers in sub-Saharan Africa and how such conditions predict teacher well-being. This study assesses how various risks across several domains of teachers' lives--measured as a "cumulative risk index"--predict motivation, burnout, and job…

  4. The Cumulative Cost-Effectiveness of Supported and Sheltered Employees with Mental Retardation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cimera, Robert Evert

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated the cumulative costs generated by supported and sheltered employees with mental retardation throughout one "employment cycle," that is, from the moment they entered their respective programs to when they exited or stopped receiving services. Data indicate that supported employees acquired services costing funding sources a…

  5. Life Course Associations between Victimization and Aggression: Distinct and Cumulative Contributions

    PubMed Central

    Logan-Greene, Patricia; Nurius, Paula S.; Hooven, Carole; Thompson, Elaine Adams

    2014-01-01

    The connections between early maltreatment and later aggression are well established in the literature, however gaps remain in our understanding of developmental processes. This study investigates the cascading lifecourse linkages between victimization experiences from childhood through early adulthood andlater aggressive behavior. The diverse, at-risk sample is of particular importance to child and adolescent specialists, as it represents highly vulnerable youth accessible through conventional school settings. In addition to direct pathways from proximal life periods, path analysis revealed significant indirect mediated pathways through which earlier life victimizationcontributes to aggressive behaviors in later life periods as well as revictimization. Multivariateregressions support theorized cumulative effects of multi-form victimization as well as distinct contributions of victimization domains (emotional, witnessing, physical, property, and sexual) in explaining aggressive behavior.Consistent with theorizing about the developmental impact of early maltreatment, results bolster the importance of interrupting pathways from victimization to revictimization and later aggression. Findings are evaluated in light of implications for early identification and prevention programming. PMID:26190899

  6. Life Course Associations between Victimization and Aggression: Distinctive and Cumulative Contributions

    PubMed Central

    Logan-Greene, Patricia; Nurius, Paula S.; Hooven, Carole; Thompson, Elaine Adams

    2014-01-01

    The connections between early maltreatment and later aggression are well established in the literature, however gaps remain in our understanding of developmental processes. This study investigates the cascading life course linkages between victimization experiences from childhood through early adulthood and later aggressive behavior. The diverse, at-risk sample is of particular importance to child and adolescent specialists, as it represents highly vulnerable youth accessible through conventional school settings. In addition to direct pathways from proximal life periods, path analysis revealed significant indirect mediated pathways through which earlier life victimization contributes to aggressive behaviors in later life periods as well as revictimization. Multivariate regressions support theorized cumulative effects of multi-form victimization as well as distinct contributions of victimization domains (emotional, witnessing, physical, property, and sexual) in explaining aggressive behavior. Consistent with theorizing about the developmental impact of early maltreatment, results bolster the importance of interrupting pathways from victimization to revictimization and later aggression. Findings are evaluated in light of implications for early identification and prevention programming. PMID:26190900

  7. Childhood Cumulative Risk Exposure and Adult Amygdala Volume and Function

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Gary W.; Swain, James E.; King, Anthony P.; Wang, Xin; Javanbakht, Arash; Ho, S. Shaun; Angstadt, Michael; Phan, K. Luan; Xie, Hong; Liberzon, Israel

    2015-01-01

    Considerable work indicates that early cumulative risk exposure is aversive to human development, but very little research has examined neurological underpinnings of these robust findings. We investigated amygdala volume and reactivity to facial stimuli among adults (M = 23.7 years, n = 54) as a function of cumulative risk exposure during childhood (ages 9 and 13). In addition, we tested whether expected, cumulative risk elevations in amygdala volume would mediate functional reactivity of the amygdala during socio-emotional processing. Risks included substandard housing quality, noise, crowding, family turmoil, child separation from family, and violence. Total and left hemisphere adult amygdala volumes, respectively were positively related to cumulative risk exposure during childhood. The links between childhood cumulative risk exposure and elevated amygdala responses to emotionally neutral facial stimuli in adulthood were mediated by the respective amygdala volumes. Cumulative risk exposure in later adolescence (17 years), however, was unrelated to subsequent, adult amygdala volume or function. Physical and socioemotional risk exposures early in life appear to alter amygdala development, rendering adults more reactive to ambiguous stimuli such as neutral faces. These stress-related differences in childhood amygdala development might contribute to well-documented psychological distress as a function of early risk exposure. PMID:26469872

  8. Diversification and cumulative evolution in New Caledonian crow tool manufacture.

    PubMed

    Hunt, Gavin R; Gray, Russell D

    2003-04-22

    Many animals use tools but only humans are generally considered to have the cognitive sophistication required for cumulative technological evolution. Three important characteristics of cumulative technological evolution are: (i) the diversification of tool design; (ii) cumulative change; and (iii) high-fidelity social transmission. We present evidence that crows have diversified and cumulatively changed the design of their pandanus tools. In 2000 we carried out an intensive survey in New Caledonia to establish the geographical variation in the manufacture of these tools. We documented the shapes of 5550 tools from 21 sites throughout the range of pandanus tool manufacture. We found three distinct pandanus tool designs: wide tools, narrow tools and stepped tools. The lack of ecological correlates of the three tool designs and their different, continuous and overlapping geographical distributions make it unlikely that they evolved independently. The similarities in the manufacture method of each design further suggest that pandanus tools have gone through a process of cumulative change from a common historical origin. We propose a plausible scenario for this rudimentary cumulative evolution.

  9. Prognostic impact of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients: A national-wide longitudinal study in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Cheng-Chia; Wu, Patricia W.; Chang, Chee-Jen; Tian, Ya-Chung; Yang, Chih-Wei

    2017-01-01

    Background Peritonitis has been independently associated with increased morbidity and mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients. However, there are few reports on peritonitis in hemodialysis patients. We aim at investigating both the risk profiles and prognostic impact of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients. Methods This nation-wide longitudinal study uses claims data obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 80,733 incident hemodialysis patients of age ≥ 20 years without a history of peritonitis were identified between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2009. Predictors of peritonitis events were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratio for mortality attributed to peritonitis exposure. Results Of 80,733 incident hemodialysis patients over a 13-year study period, peritonitis was diagnosed in 935 (1.16%), yielding an incidence rate of 2.91 per 1000 person-years. Female gender, liver cirrhosis and polycystic kidney disease were three of the most significant factors for peritonitis in both non-diabetic and diabetic hemodialysis patients. The cumulative survival rate of patients with peritonitis was 38.8% at 1 year and 10.1% at 5 years. A time-dependent Cox multivariate analysis showed that peritonitis had significantly increased hazard ratio for all cause mortality. Additionally, the risk of mortality remained significantly higher for non-diabetic hemodialysis patients that experienced peritonitis. Conclusions The risk of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients is higher in female gender, liver cirrhosis and polycystic kidney disease. Although peritonitis is a rare condition, it is associated with significantly poorer outcome in hemodialysis patients. PMID:28301536

  10. Impact of Research on Education: Some Case Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suppes, Patrick, Ed.

    Significant cases of research in terms of their effect on school practices are cited and discussed in this volume. In presenting the various case studies, the authors have not focused on the scientific validity of the ideas they present but on the impact of these ideas on education practice. The following topics are covered: (1) the use of…

  11. A Study of the Impact of Educational Reform Movements.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hess, Fritz

    An assessment of the relative and absolute impact of various educational reform movements on student learning and an analysis of school superintendents' roles in such movements are the purposes of this study. Mailed surveys to 70 experienced New York school superintendents yielded a 78.6 percent response rate. The first phase focused on the…

  12. Long-term field studies: positive impacts and unintended consequences.

    PubMed

    Strier, Karen B

    2010-09-01

    Long-term field studies of wild primates can have far-reaching impacts that transcend their contributions to science. These impacts can benefit not only the study animals, study areas, and local human communities, but they can also have unintended, potentially negative consequences. Examples of some of the positive impacts from the Northern Muriqui Project of Caratinga, in Minas Gerais, Brazil, include contributions to conservation efforts on behalf of this critically endangered species, capacity building through the training of Brazilian students, and employment opportunities for local people through our collaboration with a locally administered NGO that is facilitating ecotourism, education, and reforestation programs. Some concerns about unintended consequences of the research include the effects of our trails and trail traffic on surrounding vegetation and other aspects of the environmental "footprints" that both long-term researchers and short-term visitors may leave. In addition, although precautions against potential health risks from routine exposure to human observers are now standard protocol, little is known about the other ways in which our long-term research presence can affect the primates' experiences or alter their perceptions of their social and ecological environments. Risk analysis, which weighs both the positive and negative impacts can provide useful perspectives for addressing the ethical considerations that can arise during long-term field studies.

  13. Study questions environmental impact of fuel-cell vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stafford, Ned

    2015-09-01

    Fuel-cell electric vehicles are seen by many as an environmentally friendly technology that can reduce greenhousegas emissions by producing no harmful emissions. But a new study has found that overall a fuel cell electric vehicle has about the same negative environmental impact as a luxury sports car.

  14. National Job Corps Study: Impacts by Center Characteristics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burghardt, John; Schochet, Peter Z.

    The question of whether the Job Corps's impacts on students' employment and related outcomes differ according to the characteristics of the Job Corps center attended was examined. The study sample consisted of approximately 9,400 program group members and 6,000 control group members who were randomly selected from among the nearly 81,000…

  15. THE IMPACT OF AN EDUCATIONAL TELEVISION SERIES, AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MERRILL, I.R.

    THE OBJECTIVES OF THIS STUDY WERE TO DISCOVER WHETHER THE DOCUMENTARY TV FILM SERIES, "COUNTY AGENT," HAD APPEAL FOR AND IMPACT UPON A GENERAL AUDIENCE AND WHETHER A SIGNIFICANT RELATIONSHIP EXISTED BETWEEN THE METHODS OF PROGRAM EVALUATION USED. THE TV SERIES, BROADCAST OVER WKAR-TV, CONSISTED OF 13 PROGRAMS ABOUT PROJECTS SPONSORED BY THE…

  16. Research Strategies in Studying College Impact. No. 34.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feldman, Kenneth A.

    This paper presents a broad overview of research on the impact of college on students. The ways in which such research has been done, and the underlying theories and analytical strategies are outlined. Some generalizations based on integration of available studies are presented first, followed by a discussion of the difficulties involved in…

  17. Long-Term Impact of Service Learning in Environmental Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacFall, Janet

    2012-01-01

    Long-term impacts from a senior course in Environmental Studies were evaluated by a survey of program graduates (36 respondents, 50% response rate) who had participated in the course over an 8-year permiod. Each year, the Senior Seminar used a service-learning pedagogy with a different environmentally focused project ranging from web resource…

  18. Higher Education Council of Berks County (HECBC) Economic Impact Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paff, L. A.; D'Allegro, M. A.

    2007-01-01

    In spring 2006, the Higher Education Council of Berks County (HECBC) conducted a study to measure the economic impact of the five colleges located in Berks County: Alvernia College, Albright College, Kutztown University, Pennsylvania State University, Berks Campus (Penn State Berks) and Reading Area Community College (RACC). Although many higher…

  19. Special Education Funding Reform: A Review of Impact Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigafoos, Jeff; Moore, Dennis; Brown, Don; Green, Vanessa A.; O'Reilly, Mark F.; Lancioni, Giulio E.

    2010-01-01

    Various models for funding special education services have been described in the literature. This paper aims at moving the debate concerning special education funding reform beyond the descriptive level by reviewing studies that investigated the impact of various models for funding special education. Systematic searches were conducted of ERIC and…

  20. Radiographic study of impact in polymer-bonded explosives

    SciTech Connect

    Fugelso, E.; Jacobson, J.D.; Karpp, R.R.; Jensen, R.

    1981-01-01

    Computer-tomography generated material-density maps from flash x-ray radiographs of the impact of cylinders of mockup polymer-bonded explosive (PBX) striking a steel plate. Comparison of the density fields with computer simulation allowed discrimination of rather complex deformation and flow models for insensitive explosives to be used in further studies of chemical reactions initiated by shock waves.

  1. A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of an Environmental Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rioux, Liliane; Pasquier, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    In a previous study, we investigated the impact of an awareness-raising campaign on the behaviour of secondary school children in the Centre Region of France, regarding the recycling of used batteries. But, was it a question of pro-environmental behaviour or simply an environmental action? To answer this question, a three-year longitudinal study…

  2. Head Start Impact Study: First Year Findings. Executive Summary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Lopez, Michael

    2005-01-01

    The Congressionally-mandated Head Start Impact Study is being conducted across 84 nationally representative grantee/delegate agencies. Approximately 5,000 newly entering 3- and 4-year-old children applying for Head Start were randomly assigned to either a Head Start group that had access to Head Start program services or to a non-Head Start group…

  3. Reading First Impact Study. Final Report. NCEE 2009-4038

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gamse, Beth C.; Jacob, Robin Tepper; Horst, Megan; Boulay, Beth; Unlu, Fatih

    2008-01-01

    This report presents findings from the third and final year of the Reading First Impact Study (RFIS), a congressionally mandated evaluation of the federal government's initiative to help all children read at or above grade level by the end of third grade. The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 established Reading First (RF) and mandated its…

  4. "Leading from the Middle": An Initial Study of Impact

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naylor, Philip; Gkolia, Chrysanthi; Brundrett, Mark

    2006-01-01

    The National College for School Leadership (NCSL) Programme, Leading from the Middle (LftM), was introduced in 2003 and was designed to help improve leadership at middle levels in schools and to impact on the effectiveness of teams of teachers in improving pupil progress. This article is a report on an evaluative study of how the program has…

  5. Quantitative methods for analysing cumulative effects on fish migration success: a review.

    PubMed

    Johnson, J E; Patterson, D A; Martins, E G; Cooke, S J; Hinch, S G

    2012-07-01

    It is often recognized, but seldom addressed, that a quantitative assessment of the cumulative effects, both additive and non-additive, of multiple stressors on fish survival would provide a more realistic representation of the factors that influence fish migration. This review presents a compilation of analytical methods applied to a well-studied fish migration, a more general review of quantitative multivariable methods, and a synthesis on how to apply new analytical techniques in fish migration studies. A compilation of adult migration papers from Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka revealed a limited number of multivariable methods being applied and the sub-optimal reliance on univariable methods for multivariable problems. The literature review of fisheries science, general biology and medicine identified a large number of alternative methods for dealing with cumulative effects, with a limited number of techniques being used in fish migration studies. An evaluation of the different methods revealed that certain classes of multivariable analyses will probably prove useful in future assessments of cumulative effects on fish migration. This overview and evaluation of quantitative methods gathered from the disparate fields should serve as a primer for anyone seeking to quantify cumulative effects on fish migration survival.

  6. Hypervelocity Impact on Interfaces: A Molecular-Dynamics Simulations Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachlechner, Martina E.; Owens, Eli T.; Leonard, Robert H.; Cockburn, Bronwyn C.

    2008-03-01

    Silicon/silicon nitride interfaces are found in micro electronics and solar cells. In either application the mechanical integrity of the interface is of great importance. Molecular-dynamics simulations are performed to study the failure of interface materials under the influence of hypervelocity impact. Silicon nitride plates impacting on silicon/silicon nitride interface targets of different thicknesses result in structural phase transformation and delamination at the interface. Detailed analyses of atomic velocities, bond lengths, and bond angles are used to qualitatively examine the respective failure mechanisms.

  7. Using PZT Grid Networks in Low Velocity Impact Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carmona-Reyes, Jorge; Cook, Mike; Schmoke, Jimmy; Harper, Katie; Reay, Jerry; Matthews, Lorin; Hyde, Truell

    2004-10-01

    Orbital debris has become such a large problem that computer models, space debris tracking devices, and debris shielding processes have become a vital part of the preparation for the launch of any space mission. In order to fully understand the physics behind the damage that space debris may cause, it is first necessary to reproduce such an environment in the lab. The Center for Astrophysics, Space Physics and Engineering Research (CASPER) has completed construction and calibration of a Light Gas Gun (LGG) which is used for low velocity impact studies. The LGG was used to perform impact tests on stainless steel and aluminum disk plates, since these materials are often used in the construction of man-made structures in space. Piezoelectric lead zirconate titanate (PZT) crystals were employed to measure the momentum delivered to the plate upon impact. Multiple PZT networks were attached to the plates in order to determine the location of individual impacts. This paper will show the results of this testing on both stainless steel and aluminum disks and explain the numerical process determining the locations of the impacts.

  8. Experimental study of drop impacts on soap films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yawar, Ali; Basu, Saikat; Concha, Andres; Bandi, Mahesh

    2015-11-01

    Impinging drops on flowing and static soap films demonstrate at least three distinct types of impact regimes: (a) the drop bounces off the film surface, (b) it coalesces with the downstream flow for a moving film and for static films it gets assimilated within the film, and (c) it pierces through the film. The interaction presents a unique opportunity to explore the impact of a quasi one-dimensional object on a two-dimensional fluid, much like a comet impacting on a thin atmosphere. We present a detailed experimental study of droplet impacts on soap film flow, for a number of film inclination angles and falling heights of the drop. Imaging techniques employed include sodium lamp interferometry to measure film thickness fluctuations and particle tracking velocimetry to measure the velocity field. Film thickness measures approximately 10 microns and the drop diameter is 1 mm. We mostly observe the bouncing-off regime for smaller inclination angles. However, at higher impact angles, puncturing of the film becomes a more common occurrence. We show that when the drop bounces off the film, there is a momentum transfer leading to vortex dipole shedding, along with the generation of capillary waves; an impulsive regime that may share correspondence with the locomotion of water striders.

  9. The Impact of Radiation Therapy on the Risk of Lymphedema After Treatment for Breast Cancer: A Prospective Cohort Study

    SciTech Connect

    Warren, Laura E.G.; Miller, Cynthia L.; Horick, Nora; Skolny, Melissa N.; Jammallo, Lauren S.; Sadek, Betro T.; Shenouda, Mina N.; O'Toole, Jean A.; MacDonald, Shannon M.; Specht, Michelle C.; Taghian, Alphonse G.

    2014-03-01

    Purpose/Objective: Lymphedema after breast cancer treatment can be an irreversible condition with a negative impact on quality of life. The goal of this study was to identify radiation therapy-related risk factors for lymphedema. Methods and Materials: From 2005 to 2012, we prospectively performed arm volume measurements on 1476 breast cancer patients at our institution using a Perometer. Treating each breast individually, 1099 of 1501 patients (73%) received radiation therapy. Arm measurements were performed preoperatively and postoperatively. Lymphedema was defined as ≥10% arm volume increase occurring >3 months postoperatively. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate risk factors for lymphedema. Results: At a median follow-up time of 25.4 months (range, 3.4-82.6 months), the 2-year cumulative incidence of lymphedema was 6.8%. Cumulative incidence by radiation therapy type was as follows: 3.0% no radiation therapy, 3.1% breast or chest wall alone, 21.9% supraclavicular (SC), and 21.1% SC and posterior axillary boost (PAB). On multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio for regional lymph node radiation (RLNR) (SC ± PAB) was 1.7 (P=.025) compared with breast/chest wall radiation alone. There was no difference in lymphedema risk between SC and SC + PAB (P=.96). Other independent risk factors included early postoperative swelling (P<.0001), higher body mass index (P<.0001), greater number of lymph nodes dissected (P=.018), and axillary lymph node dissection (P=.0001). Conclusions: In a large cohort of breast cancer patients prospectively screened for lymphedema, RLNR significantly increased the risk of lymphedema compared with breast/chest wall radiation alone. When considering use of RLNR, clinicians should weigh the potential benefit of RLNR for control of disease against the increased risk of lymphedema.

  10. 76 FR 82296 - Pyrethrins/Pyrethroid Cumulative Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment Period

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-30

    ... AGENCY Pyrethrins/Pyrethroid Cumulative Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment Period AGENCY... announced the availability of EPA's cumulative risk assessment for the pyrethroids. Based on this assessment... of concern. Because this cumulative risk assessment uses a number of very conservative...

  11. ECC study in positron impact ionization in molecular hydrogen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campeanu, R. I.; Zohouri Haghian, N.

    2012-12-01

    The electron capture to the continuum phenomenon in positron impact ionization of molecular hydrogen is studied with the distorted wave Born approximation. Our theoretical model produces results which are in better agreement with the experiment than the more elaborate models of [J. Fiol, V.D. Rodriguez, R.O. Barrachina, J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 34, 933 (2001)] and [A. Benedek, R.I. Campeanu, J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 40, 1589 (2007)] previously employed in this study.

  12. Evaluation of Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Thom, Ronald M.; Roegner, G. Curtis; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Skalski, John R.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl; Coleman, Andre M.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Cameron, April; Corbett, C.; Donley, Erin E.; Jay, D. A.; Ke, Yinghai; Leffler, K.; McNeil, C.; Studebaker, Cindy; Tagestad, Jerry D.

    2012-05-01

    This is the seventh and final annual report of a project (2004–2010) addressing evaluation of the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the 235-km-long lower Columbia River and estuary. The project, called the Cumulative Effects (CE) study, was conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District by a collaboration of research agencies led by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. We achieved the primary goal of the CE study to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat actions in the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program. We delivered 1) standard monitoring protocols and methods to prioritize monitoring activities; 2) the theoretical and empirical basis for a CE methodology using levels-of-evidence; 3) evaluations of cumulative effects using ecological relationships, geo-referenced data, hydrodynamic modeling, and meta-analyses; and 4) an adaptive management process to coordinate and coalesce restoration efforts in the LCRE. A solid foundation has been laid for future comprehensive evaluations of progress made by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program to understand, conserve, and restore ecosystems in the lower Columbia River and estuary.

  13. Cumulative production of pions by heavy baryonic resonances in proton-nucleus collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motornenko, A.; Gorenstein, M. I.

    2017-02-01

    Pion production in proton-nucleus (p+A) collisions outside the kinematical boundary of proton-nucleon (p+N) reactions and the so-called cumulative effect are studied. Restrictions from energy-momentum conservation of the energy of pions emitted in the backward direction in the target rest frame are analyzed. It is assumed that the cumulative pions are produced in p+A reactions by heavy baryonic resonances. The baryonic resonances are first created in p+N reactions. Due to successive collisions with nuclear nucleons, the masses of these resonances may then increase and, simultaneously, their longitudinal velocities decrease. We also use the ultra relativistic quantum molecular dynamics model to reveal the key role of successive collisions of baryonic resonances with nuclear nucleons for cumulative pion production in p+A reactions. Further experimental studies of cumulative hadron production in p+A reactions at high collision energies are needed to search for heavy hadron-like objects and investigate their properties.

  14. A DEM-based partition adjustment for the interpolation of annual cumulative temperature in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Jun; Li, Fei; Fu, Haiyue; Tian, Ying; Hu, Zizhi

    2007-06-01

    The spatial interpolation of meteorological elements has more important application value. The interpolation methods of air temperature data have been wildly applied in the large scale region. It has been paid more attentions that taking altitude as a variable was introduced into the interpolation models so as to improve the interpolation precision of air temperature data. In a large area, it is difficult to find the relationship between annual cumulative temperature and altitude according to the distribution of meteorological stations. Compared whit it dividing the study area, introducing interpolation models modified by DEM in the smaller region, we can availably improve the spatial interpolation precision of the annual cumulative temperature. The result shows that: Applied in the partition study area, inverse distance squared method modified by DEM can reduce complexity of spatial data analysis in the process of annual cumulative temperature interpolation. Partition interpolation methods take into account some factors that affect the interpolation results, such as the spatial distribution imbalance of the meteorological stations, altitude and region difference. The methods are fit for the interpolation analysis of the large-scale region. Compared with the tradition interpolation methods such as Kriging, Inverse distance interpolation method, etc., inverse distance squared method modified by DEM has higher interpolation precision of annual cumulative temperature in China.

  15. The Seemingly Quixotic Pursuit of a Cumulative Psychological Science: Introduction to the Special Issue

    PubMed Central

    Curran, Patrick J.

    2009-01-01

    The following manuscript is the final accepted manuscript. It has not been subjected to the final copyediting, fact-checking, and proofreading required for formal publication. It is not the definitive, publisher-authenticated version. The American Psychological Association and its Council of Editors disclaim any responsibility or liabilities for errors or omissions of this manuscript version, any version derived from this manuscript by NIH, or other third parties. The published version is available at www.apa.org/journals/met. The goal of any empirical science is to pursue the construction of a cumulative base of knowledge upon which the future of the science may be built. However, there is mixed evidence that the science of psychology can accurately be characterized by such a cumulative progression. Indeed, some argue that the development of a truly cumulative psychological science is not possible using the current paradigms of hypothesis testing in single-study designs. The author explores this controversy as a framework to introduce the six papers that make up this special issue that is focused on the integration of data and empirical findings across multiple studies. The author proposes that the methods and techniques described in this set of papers can significantly propel us forward in our ongoing quest to build a cumulative psychological science. PMID:19485622

  16. CUMULATIVE REPRODUCTIVE EFFECTS OF IN UTERO ADMINISTRATION OF A MIXTURE OF TEN “ANTIANDROGENS” IN MALE SD RATS: SYNERGY OR ADDITIVITY?

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1996, the USEPA was charged under FQPA to consider the cumulative effects of chemicals in their risk assessments. We are conducting studies to provide a framework for assessing the cumulative effects of antiandrogens. In the current study, ten “antiandrogenic” chemicals were a...

  17. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2006

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Gary E.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Putman, Douglas A.; Roegner, G. C.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John; Whiting, Allan H.

    2007-12-06

    This report is the third annual report of a six-year project to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration action in the Columbia River Estuary (CRE). The project is being conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) by the Marine Sciences Laboratory of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the Pt. Adams Biological Field Station of the National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce. Measurement of the cumulative effects of ecological restoration projects in the Columbia River estuary is a formidable task because of the size and complexity of the estuarine landscape and the meta-populations of salmonids in the Columbia River basin. Despite the challenges presented by this system, developing and implementing appropriate indicators and methods to measure cumulative effects is the best way to enable estuary managers to track the overall effectiveness of investments in estuarine restoration projects. This project is developing methods to quantify the cumulative effects of multiple restoration activities in the CRE. The overall objectives of the 2006 study were to continue to develop techniques to assess cumulative effects, refine the standard monitoring protocols, and initiate development of an adaptive management system for Corps of Engineers’ habitat restoration monitoring efforts in the CRE. (The adaptive management effort will be reported at a later date.) Field studies during 2006 were conducted in tidal freshwater at Kandoll Farm on the lower Grays River and tidal brackish water at Vera Slough on Youngs Bay. Within each of area, we sampled one natural reference site and one restoration site. We addressed the overall objectives with field work in 2006 that, coupled with previous field data, had specific objectives and resulted in some important findings that are summarized here by chapter in this report. Each chapter of the report contains data on particular monitored variables for pre- and post

  18. Association between somatic cell count after first parturition and cumulative milk yield in dairy cows

    PubMed Central

    Archer, S. C.; Mc Coy, F.; Wapenaar, W.; Green, M. J.

    2013-01-01

    The aim was to assess the association between the somatic cell count of parity 1 cows between 5 and 30 days in milk (SCC1), and subsequent cumulative milk yield over approximately two years for cows in English and Welsh dairy herds. The dataset included records from 43,461 cows in 2111 herds, from 2004 to 2006. Cumulative milk yield was the model outcome, and a random effect was included to account for variation between herds. The model fitted the data well and was used to make predictions of cumulative milk yield, based on SCC1. A unit increase in the natural logarithm of SCC1/1000 was associated with a median decrease in cumulative milk yield of 482 kg, over a median study period of 868 days. PMID:23920363

  19. On the development of human corticospinal oscillations: age-related changes in EEG-EMG coherence and cumulant.

    PubMed

    James, Leon M; Halliday, David M; Stephens, John A; Farmer, Simon F

    2008-06-01

    Changes in coherence and cumulant calculated between electroencephalograph (EEG) recorded from the scalp over primary motor cortex and rectified surface electromyograph (EMG) recorded from the contralateral wrist extensor muscles have been studied during development in humans (48 subjects, age 0-59 years). Using the techniques of EEG-EMG coherence and cumulant analysis and pooled coherence and cumulant analysis we demonstrate that between childhood, adolescence and adulthood there are increases in the prevalence and magnitude of coherence at frequencies between 15 and 35 Hz with corresponding development of a tri-phasic feature in the EEG-EMG cumulant. The results show for the first time that changes in the cortical approximately 20 Hz oscillatory drive to human motoneurone pools take place during motor development.

  20. Cumulative Causation, Market Transition, and Emigration from China

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Zai; Chunyu, Miao David; Zhuang, Guotu; Ye, Wenzhen

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we report findings from a recent survey of international migration from China's Fujian province to the United States. We take advantage of the ethnosurvey approach as used in the Mexican Migration Project. Surveys were done in migrant-sending communities in China as well as in destination communities of New York City. We derive hypotheses from two strands of recent studies-the international migration literature and the market transition debate. Our results are in general consistent with hypotheses derived from cumulative causation of migration. However, because of the geographical location of China as compared to Mexico, there are some differences between the two countries in terms of particular migration patterns to the United States. As expected, at the community level, migration prevalence ratio (measuring migration networks) increases the propensity of migration for other members in the community. In contrast, having a household member migrated previously does not increase the propensity of migration of other household members until debt for previous migration is paid off. Our research clearly demonstrates the value of bringing the case of China into the comparative study of international migration. With respect to market transition theory, we find that political power continues to be an important factor in the order of social stratification in the coastal Fujian province. PMID:19569396

  1. Study of hypervelocity projectile impact on thick metal plates

    DOE PAGES

    Roy, Shawoon K.; Trabia, Mohamed; O’Toole, Brendan; ...

    2016-01-01

    Hypervelocity impacts generate extreme pressure and shock waves in impacted targets that undergo severe localized deformation within a few microseconds. These impact experiments pose unique challenges in terms of obtaining accurate measurements. Similarly, simulating these experiments is not straightforward. This paper proposed an approach to experimentally measure the velocity of the back surface of an A36 steel plate impacted by a projectile. All experiments used a combination of a two-stage light-gas gun and the photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) technique. The experimental data were used to benchmark and verify computational studies. Two different finite-element methods were used to simulate the experiments:more » Lagrangian-based smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and Eulerian-based hydrocode. Both codes used the Johnson-Cook material model and the Mie-Grüneisen equation of state. Experiments and simulations were compared based on the physical damage area and the back surface velocity. Finally, the results of this study showed that the proposed simulation approaches could be used to reduce the need for expensive experiments.« less

  2. Study of hypervelocity projectile impact on thick metal plates

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, Shawoon K.; Trabia, Mohamed; O’Toole, Brendan; Hixson, Robert S.; Becker, Steven; Pena, Michael T.; Jennings, Richard; Somasoundaram, Deepak; Matthes, Melissa; Daykin, Edward P.; Machorro, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Hypervelocity impacts generate extreme pressure and shock waves in impacted targets that undergo severe localized deformation within a few microseconds. These impact experiments pose unique challenges in terms of obtaining accurate measurements. Similarly, simulating these experiments is not straightforward. This paper proposed an approach to experimentally measure the velocity of the back surface of an A36 steel plate impacted by a projectile. All experiments used a combination of a two-stage light-gas gun and the photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) technique. The experimental data were used to benchmark and verify computational studies. Two different finite-element methods were used to simulate the experiments: Lagrangian-based smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and Eulerian-based hydrocode. Both codes used the Johnson-Cook material model and the Mie-Grüneisen equation of state. Experiments and simulations were compared based on the physical damage area and the back surface velocity. Finally, the results of this study showed that the proposed simulation approaches could be used to reduce the need for expensive experiments.

  3. Impact angle control of interplanetary shock geoeffectiveness: A statistical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, Denny M.; Raeder, Joachim

    2015-06-01

    We present a survey of interplanetary (IP) shocks using Wind and ACE satellite data from January 1995 to December 2013 to study how IP shock geoeffectiveness is controlled by IP shock impact angles. A shock list covering one and a half solar cycle is compiled. The yearly number of IP shocks is found to correlate well with the monthly sunspot number. We use data from SuperMAG, a large chain with more than 300 geomagnetic stations, to study geoeffectiveness triggered by IP shocks. The SuperMAG SML index, an enhanced version of the familiar AL index, is used in our statistical analysis. The jumps of the SML index triggered by IP shock impacts on the Earth's magnetosphere are investigated in terms of IP shock orientation and speed. We find that, in general, strong (high speed) and almost frontal (small impact angle) shocks are more geoeffective than inclined shocks with low speed. The strongest correlation (correlation coefficient R = 0.78) occurs for fixed IP shock speed and for varied IP shock impact angle. We attribute this result, predicted previously with simulations, to the fact that frontal shocks compress the magnetosphere symmetrically from all sides, which is a favorable condition for the release of magnetic energy stored in the magnetotail, which in turn can produce moderate to strong auroral substorms, which are then observed by ground-based magnetometers.

  4. The NASA Lewis Research Center: An Economic Impact Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Austrian, Ziona

    1996-01-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC), established in 1941, is one of ten NASA research centers in the country. It is situated on 350 acres of land in Cuyahoga County and occupies more than 140 buildings and over 500 specialized research and test facilities. Most of LeRC's facilities are located in the City of Cleveland; some are located within the boundaries of the cities of Fairview Park and Brookpark. LeRC is a lead center for NASA's research, technology, and development in the areas of aeropropulsion and selected space applications. It is a center of excellence for turbomachinery, microgravity fluid and combustion research, and commercial communication. The base research and technology disciplines which serve both aeronautics and space areas include materials and structures, instrumentation and controls, fluid physics, electronics, and computational fluid dynamics. This study investigates LeRC's economic impact on Northeast Ohio's economy. It was conducted by The Urban Center's Economic Development Program in Cleveland State University's Levin College of Urban Affairs. The study measures LeRC's direct impact on the local economy in terms of jobs, output, payroll, and taxes, as well as the indirect impact of these economic activities when they 'ripple' throughout the economy. To fully explain LeRC's overall impact on the region, its contributions in the areas of technology transfer and education are also examined. The study uses a highly credible and widely accepted research methodology. First, regional economic multipliers based on input-output models were used to estimate the effect of LERC spending on the Northeast Ohio economy. Second, the economic models were complemented by interviews with industrial, civic, and university leaders to qualitatively assess LeRC's impact in the areas of technology transfer and education.

  5. Higher-order mesoscopic fluctuations in quantum wires: Conductance and current cumulants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stenberg, Markku P. V.; Särkkä, Jani

    2006-07-01

    We study conductance cumulants ⟪gn⟫ and current cumulants Cj related to heat and electrical transport in coherent mesoscopic quantum wires near the diffusive regime. We consider the asymptotic behavior in the limit where the number of channels and the length of the wire in the units of the mean free path are large but the bare conductance is fixed. A recursion equation unifying the descriptions of the standard and Bogoliubov-de Gennes (BdG) symmetry classes is presented. We give values and come up with a novel scaling form for the higher-order conductance cumulants. In the BdG wires, in the presence of time-reversal symmetry, for the cumulants higher than the second it is found that there may be only contributions which depend nonanalytically on the wire length. This indicates that diagrammatic or semiclassical pictures do not adequately describe higher-order spectral correlations. Moreover, we obtain the weak-localization corrections to Cj with j⩽10 .

  6. Negative Affectivity Moderates Associations between Cumulative Risk and At-Risk Toddlers' Behavior Problems.

    PubMed

    Northerner, Laura M; Trentacosta, Christopher J; McLear, Caitlin M

    2016-02-01

    This study examined cumulative risk, temperament traits, and their interplay as predictors of internalizing, externalizing, and sleep problems in at-risk toddlers. Participants were 104 low-income mother-toddler dyads recruited from Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) sites in a large city. The sample was primarily African American, and mothers were 21 years of age or younger at the child's birth. The dyads were assessed when the toddlers were approximately 18 months old and again at 24 months of age. Though all toddlers were from low-income families with young mothers, the families varied in the degree to which other contextual risk factors were present. A cumulative risk index was calculated based on five contextual factors: maternal education, neighborhood dangerousness, social support, household overcrowding and single parenting. In multiple regressions, cumulative risk predicted sleep and externalizing problems. In addition, negative affectivity predicted all three domains of problem behaviors, effortful control predicted fewer externalizing problems, and surgency predicted fewer internalizing problems. Moreover, low negative affectivity buffered the association between cumulative risk and both internalizing and sleep problems. These findings suggest that it is important to consider children's temperament traits in conjunction with the constellation of family risks when designing prevention programs to reduce the prevalence of behavior problems early in life.

  7. Cumulative violence exposure, emotional nonacceptance, and mental health symptoms in a community sample of women.

    PubMed

    Sundermann, Jane M; Chu, Ann T; DePrince, Anne P

    2013-01-01

    Women exposed to more types of violence (e.g., emotional, physical, or sexual violence)--referred to here as cumulative violence exposure--are at risk for more severe mental health symptoms compared to women who are exposed to a single type of violence or no violence. Women exposed to violence may also experience greater emotional nonacceptance compared to women with no exposure to violence. Emotional nonacceptance refers to an unwillingness to experience emotional states, including cognitive and behavioral attempts to avoid experiences of emotion. Given the links between cumulative violence exposure, emotional nonacceptance, and mental health symptoms among female victims of violence, the current study tested victims' emotional nonacceptance as a partial mediator between cumulative violence exposure and the severity of 3 types of symptoms central to complex trauma responses: depression, dissociation, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. A non-treatment-seeking community sample of women (N = 89; M age = 30.70 years) completed self-report questionnaires and interviews. Bootstrap procedures were then used to test 3 mediation models for the separate predictions of depression, dissociation, and PTSD symptoms. Results supported our hypotheses that emotional nonacceptance would mediate the relationship between women's cumulative violence exposure and severity for all symptom types. The current findings highlight the role that emotional nonacceptance may play in the development of mental health symptoms for chronically victimized women and point to the need for longitudinal research in such populations.

  8. The cumulative ash curve: a best tool to evaluate complete mill performance.

    PubMed

    Sakhare, Suresh D; Inamdar, Aashitosh A

    2014-04-01

    Slick test is carried out by a flour miller to qualitatively segregate the flour from different streams in a roller flour mill. This test is done manually by pressing flour samples on tray using thin bladed paddle (the slick) and inspecting color or dress of the sample. However, the test is subjective and totally depends on human judgment. Cumulative ash curve relates to cumulative flour ash content and cumulative flour yield, which could help a flour miller to be more precise while selecting flour streams for different needs. In this study, cleaning and conditioning of wheat was carried out in the pilot plant of International School of Milling Technology (ISMT). Further, roller flour milling of wheat was done. Flour from different streams (four breaks, five reductions) was collected. Each flour stream was analyzed for ash content using standard AACC methods. The analytical values of ash content were used to plot the cumulative ash curve. It was found that ash content increased in the break passages from first to last break, with exception of first break (ash content 0.71%). An increase in percentage of ash was observed in the reduction passages (C1 to C5), however, C3 ash (0.76%) was slightly higher than that of C4 (0.65%). Higher yield of flour with minimum ash content was obtained from the front reduction passages C1 and C2; whereas, the break passages and the tail end reduction passages produce less flour with higher ash content.

  9. Negative Affectivity Moderates Associations between Cumulative Risk and At-Risk Toddlers’ Behavior Problems

    PubMed Central

    Northerner, Laura M.; Trentacosta, Christopher J.; McLear, Caitlin M.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined cumulative risk, temperament traits, and their interplay as predictors of internalizing, externalizing, and sleep problems in at-risk toddlers. Participants were 104 low-income mother-toddler dyads recruited from Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) sites in a large city. The sample was primarily African American, and mothers were 21 years of age or younger at the child’s birth. The dyads were assessed when the toddlers were approximately 18 months old and again at 24 months of age. Though all toddlers were from low-income families with young mothers, the families varied in the degree to which other contextual risk factors were present. A cumulative risk index was calculated based on five contextual factors: maternal education, neighborhood dangerousness, social support, household overcrowding and single parenting. In multiple regressions, cumulative risk predicted sleep and externalizing problems. In addition, negative affectivity predicted all three domains of problem behaviors, effortful control predicted fewer externalizing problems, and surgency predicted fewer internalizing problems. Moreover, low negative affectivity buffered the association between cumulative risk and both internalizing and sleep problems. These findings suggest that it is important to consider children’s temperament traits in conjunction with the constellation of family risks when designing prevention programs to reduce the prevalence of behavior problems early in life. PMID:26924917

  10. Quantifying Process-Based Mitigation Strategies in Historical Context: Separating Multiple Cumulative Effects on River Meander Migration

    PubMed Central

    Fremier, Alexander K.; Girvetz, Evan H.; Greco, Steven E.; Larsen, Eric W.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental legislation in the US (i.e. NEPA) requires defining baseline conditions on current rather than historical ecosystem conditions. For ecosystems with long histories of multiple environmental impacts, this baseline method can subsequently lead to a significantly altered environment; this has been termed a ‘sliding baseline’. In river systems, cumulative effects caused by flow regulation, channel revetment and riparian vegetation removal significantly impact floodplain ecosystems by altering channel dynamics and precluding subsequent ecosystem processes, such as primary succession. To quantify these impacts on floodplain development processes, we used a model of river channel meander migration to illustrate the degree to which flow regulation and riprap impact migration rates, independently and synergistically, on the Sacramento River in California, USA. From pre-dam conditions, the cumulative effect of flow regulation alone on channel migration is a reduction by 38%, and 42–44% with four proposed water diversion project scenarios. In terms of depositional area, the proposed water project would reduce channel migration 51–71 ha in 130 years without current riprap in place, and 17–25 ha with riprap. Our results illustrate the utility of a modeling approach for quantifying cumulative impacts. Model-based quantification of environmental impacts allow scientists to separate cumulative and synergistic effects to analytically define mitigation measures. Additionally, by selecting an ecosystem process that is affected by multiple impacts, it is possible to consider process-based mitigation scenarios, such as the removal of riprap, to allow meander migration and create new floodplains and allow for riparian vegetation recruitment. PMID:24964145

  11. Soil test phosphorus and cumulative phosphorus budgets in fertilized grassland.

    PubMed

    Messiga, Aimé Jean; Ziadi, Noura; Jouany, Claire; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Suomela, Raija; Sinaj, Sokrat; Bélanger, Gilles; Stroia, Ciprian; Morel, Christian

    2015-03-01

    We analyzed the linearity of relationships between soil test P (STP) and cumulative phosphorus (P) budget using data from six long-term fertilized grassland sites in four countries: France (Ercé and Gramond), Switzerland (Les Verrières), Canada (Lévis), and Finland (Maaninka and Siikajoki). STP was determined according to existing national guidelines. A linear-plateau model was used to determine the presence of deflection points in the relationships. Deflection points with (x, y) coordinates were observed everywhere but Maaninka. Above the deflection point, a significant linear relationship was obtained (0.33 < r (2) < 0.72) at four sites, while below the deflection point, the relationship was not significant, with a negligible rate of STP decrease. The relationship was not linear over the range of STP encountered at most sites, suggesting a need for caution when using the P budget approach to predict STP changes in grasslands, particularly in situations of very low P fertilization. Our study provides insights and description of a tool to improve global P strategies aimed at maintaining STP at levels adequate for grassland production while reducing the risk of P pollution of water.

  12. Cumulative Family Risk Predicts Sibling Adjustment to Childhood Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Long, Kristin A.; Marsland, Anna L.; Alderfer, Melissa A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Prolonged, intensive treatment regimens often disrupt families of children with cancer. Siblings are at increased risk for distress, but factors underlying this risk have received limited empirical attention. This study examined associations between the family context and sibling distress. Methods Siblings of children with cancer (ages 8–18, N=209) and parents (186 mothers, 70 fathers) completed measures of sibling distress, family functioning, parenting, and parent posttraumatic stress. Associations between sibling distress and each family risk factor were evaluated. Then, family risks were considered simultaneously by calculating cumulative family risk index scores. Results After controlling for socio-demographic covariates, greater sibling distress was associated with more sibling-reported problems with family functioning and parental psychological control, lower sibling-reported maternal acceptance, and lower paternal self-reported acceptance. When risk factors were considered together, results supported a quadratic model in which associations between family risk and sibling distress were stronger at higher levels of risk. Conclusions Findings support a contextual model of sibling adjustment to childhood cancer in which elevated distress is predicted by family risk factors, alone and in combination. PMID:23576115

  13. Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

    PubMed

    Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

    2002-03-01

    Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

  14. Electrochemical and Dry Sand Impact Erosion Studies on Carbon Steel

    PubMed Central

    Naz, M. Y.; Ismail, N. I.; Sulaiman, S. A.; Shukrullah, S.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the dry and aqueous erosion of mild steel using electrochemical and dry sand impact techniques. In dry sand impact experiments, mild steel was eroded with 45 μm and 150 μm sand particles. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) and micro-hardness techniques were used to elaborate the surface morphology of the eroded samples. The results revealed significant change in morphology of the eroded samples. In-depth analysis showed that although the metal erosion due to larger particles was significantly higher, the fines also notably damaged the metal surface. The surface damages were appreciably reduced with decrease in impact angle of the accelerated particles. The maximum damages were observed at an impact angle of 90°. The hardness of the samples treated with 45 μm and 150 μm sand remained in the range of 88.34 to 102.31 VHN and 87.7 to 97.55 VHN, respectively. In electrochemical experiments, a triple electrode probe was added into the metal treatment process. The linear polarization resistance (LPR) measurements were performed in slurries having 5% (by weight) of sand particles. LPR of the samples treated with 45 μm and 150 μm sand slurries was calculated about 949 Ω.cm2 and 809 Ω.cm2, respectively. PMID:26561231

  15. Cumulative Effects of Micro-Hydro Development on the Fisheries of the Swan River Drainage, Montana, Volume I, Summary, 1983-1984 Final Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Leathe, Stephen A.; Enk, Michael D.

    1985-04-01

    This study was designed to develop and apply methods to evaluate the cumulative effects of 20 proposed small hydro projects on the fisheries resources of the Swan River drainage located in northwestern Montana. Fish population and reach classification information was used to estimate total populations of 107,000 brook trout, 65,000 cut-throat trout and 31,000 juvenile bull trout within the tributary system. Distribution, abundance, and life history of fish species in the drainage and their contribution to the sport fishery were considered in the cumulative impact analysis. Bull trout were chosen as the primary species of concern because of their extensive use of project areas, sensitivity to streambed sedimentation, and their importance to the lake and river sport fisheries. Dewatering of hydroelectric diversion zones and streambed sedimentation (resulting from forest and small hydro development) were the major impacts considered. The developer proposed to divert up to the entire streamflow during low flow months because maintenance of recommended minimum bypass flows would not allow profitable project operation. Dewatering was assumed to result in a total loss of fish production in these areas. 105 refs., 19 figs., 38 tabs.

  16. Triggering of major eruptions recorded by actively forming cumulates

    PubMed Central

    Stock, Michael J.; Taylor, Rex N.; Gernon, Thomas M.

    2012-01-01

    Major overturn within a magma chamber can bring together felsic and mafic magmas, prompting de-volatilisation and acting as the driver for Plinian eruptions. Until now identification of mixing has been limited to analysis of lavas or individual crystals ejected during eruptions. We have recovered partially developed cumulate material (‘live’ cumulate mush) from pyroclastic deposits of major eruptions on Tenerife. These samples represent “frozen” clumps of diverse crystalline deposits from all levels in the developing reservoir, which are permeated with the final magma immediately before eruptions. Such events therefore record the complete disintegration of the magma chamber, leading to caldera collapse. Chemical variation across developing cumulus crystals records changes in melt composition. Apart from fluctuations reflecting periodic influxes of mafic melt, crystal edges consistently record the presence of more felsic magmas. The prevalence of this felsic liquid implies it was able to infiltrate the entire cumulate pile immediately before each eruption. PMID:23066500

  17. Inverse counting statistics based on generalized factorial cumulants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stegmann, Philipp; König, Jürgen

    2017-02-01

    We propose a procedure to reconstruct characteristic features of an unknown stochastic system from the long-time full counting statistics of some of the system’s transitions that are monitored by a detector. The full counting statistics is conveniently parametrized by so-called generalized factorial cumulants. Taking only a few of them as input information is sufficient to reconstruct important features such as the lower bound of the system dimension and the full spectrum of relaxation rates. The use of generalized factorial cumulants reveals system dimensions and rates that are hidden for ordinary cumulants. We illustrate the inverse counting-statistics procedure for two model systems: a single-level quantum dot in a Zeeman field and a single-electron box subjected to sequential and Andreev tunneling.

  18. Origins and implications of the relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raupach, M. R.; Davis, S. J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J.; Le Quere, C.

    2014-12-01

    A near-linear relationship between warming (T) and cumulative carbon emissions (Q) is a robust finding from numerous studies. This finding opens biophysical questions concerning (1) its theoretical basis, (2) the treatment of non-CO2 forcings, and (3) uncertainty specifications. Beyond these biophysical issues, a profound global policy question is raised: (4) how can a quota on cumulative emissions be shared? Here, an integrated survey of all four issues is attempted. (1) Proportionality between T and Q is an emergent property of a linear carbon-climate system forced by exponentially increasing CO2 emissions. This idealisation broadly explains past but not future near-proportionality between T and Q: in future, the roles of non-CO2 forcings and carbon-climate nonlinearities become important, and trajectory dependence becomes stronger. (2) The warming effects of short-lived non-CO2 forcers depend on instantaneous rather than cumulative fluxes. However, inertia in emissions trajectories reinstates some of the benefits of a cumulative emissions approach, with residual trajectory dependence comparable to that for CO2. (3) Uncertainties arise from several sources: climate projections, carbon-climate feedbacks, and residual trajectory dependencies in CO2 and other emissions. All of these can in principle be combined into a probability distribution P(T|Q) for the warming T from given cumulative CO2 emissions Q. Present knowledge of P(T|Q) allows quantification of the tradeoff between mitigation ambition and climate risk. (4) Cumulative emissions consistent with a given warming target and climate risk are a finite common resource that will inevitably be shared, creating a tragedy-of-the-commons dilemma. Sharing options range from "inertia" (present distribution of emissions is maintained) to "equity" (cumulative emissions are distributed equally per-capita). Both extreme options lead to emissions distributions that are unrealisable in practice, but a blend of the two

  19. Assessing the cumulative effect of the weather variability on wetlands and the hydrological connection between wetlands and downstream waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeo, I. Y.; Lang, M. W.; Lee, S.; Mccarty, G.; Peng, Y.; Huang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Wetlands are crucial ecosystem features that provide important ecological benefits to improve water quality and reduce the climate change impact. This ecosystem functioning of wetlands is largely dependent upon their hydrological characteristics and linkage to the downstream waters. However, the cumulative impacts of the climate on wetlands and the hydrological connection between wetlands and downstream waters have been rarely quantified at the landscape scale. This study reports findings from time series satellite observation that can illustrate the changes in extent of wetland inundation at a high spatial resolution (30-m) over the period 1985-2010. This remote sensing based observation provides crucial information to gain insights onto inter-annual variability of inundation dynamics, and we analyze this product with the drought indices, streamflows, the USFS NWI-hydrologic modifier. This study focuses on natural palustrine wetlands, densely distributed in the coastal plain of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). We observe inundation patterns change in response to the weather variability, and it is proportionally related to the downstream flow discharge. While those wetlands with a longer hydro-period (i.e., permanently ponded wetlands during the growing season) show the strongest relationship with stream discharge (including baseflow, contributed from the shallow groundwater), inundation patterns of headwater/isolated wetlands are also strongly related to stream discharge. It shows the strong relationship between wetlands and downstream water regardless of geographic isolation and their mutual reliance on groundwater. The study provides the support for the conservation of wetlands through section 404 of the Clean Water Act.

  20. Cycles in finite samples and cumulative processes of higher orders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klemeš, VíT.; Klemeš, Ivo

    1988-01-01

    The process formed by a sequence of cumulative departures from the mean or from some other constant (residual mass curve, cusum chart) is a popular tool for the representation and analysis of time series in many sciences, for example, in hydrology, climatology, economics, game theory. In these and other natural and social sciences, similar cumulative processes also often arise naturally; examples include fluctuations of storage in a dam with a constant release rate, lake levels, volume of glaciers, biomass, inventories, and bank accounts. Moreover, many natural economic and other phenomena may represent, or contain, components of cumulative processes of higher orders, i.e., cumulative processes of cumulative processes. In this paper we show that for a sample {yt(0)}≡{xt} of any finite size N, the pure cumulative process of nth order, yt(n)≡∑i=1t(yi(n-1) - μ(n-1)), where μ(n-1) is the sample mean of {yt(n-1)} and t=1, 2, …, N, converges for n→∞ to a sine wave with a period equal to an integral fraction of the sample size N. This happens for any initial sample {yt(0)} and the convergence is of an exponential order. For samples from most stochastic as well as deterministic processes, the period of the limiting sine wave is equal to the sample size N. This behavior is demonstrated by examples involving samples from various processes ranging from pure random series to various deterministic series and including time series of some natural processes such as streamflow, lake levels, and glacier volumes. The paper includes a demonstration of effects of noise superimposed on, and of error in the value of, sample mean on the rate of convergence, and a discussion of some practical implications of the phenomenon described; it brings together some aspects of the work of Slutzky (1937), Hurst (1951), and Yule (1926).