Putting the Nation on a Path for Climate Resilience and Preparedness

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Putting current data in a historical context, NOAA publishes the monthly State of the Climate Report that includes analyses of the Nation's recent climate conditions, their unusualness, and their rank within long‐term trends.

A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

issues related to climate change , focusing primarily on its economic aspects. The study draws from numerous published sources to summarize the current...state of climate science and provide a conceptual framework for addressing climate change as an economic problem. It also examines public policy

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Butterworth, Melinda K; Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

2017-04-01

Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission. We assessed projected climate change-driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region. We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic. Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model. Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

Improvement of Michigan climatic files in pavement ME design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-10-01

Climatic inputs have a great influence on Mechanistic-Empirical design results of flexible : and rigid pavements. Currently the state of Michigan has 24 climatic files embedded in Pavement ME : Design (PMED), but several limitations have been identif...

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

EPA Science Inventory

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective.

PubMed

Liénard, Jean; Harrison, John; Strigul, Nikolay

2016-08-01

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews

2008-01-01

We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and...

Assessing Current State Science Teaching and Learning Standards for Ability to Achieve Climate Science Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, K. C.

2012-12-01

Even though there exists a high degree of consensus among scientists about climate change, doubt has actually increased over the last five years within the general U.S. public. In 2006, 79% of those polled agreed that there is evidence for global warming, while only 59% agreed in 2010 (Pew Research Center, 2010). The source for this doubt can be partially attributed to lack of knowledge. Formal education is one mechanism that potentially can address inadequate public understanding as school is the primary place where students - and future citizens - learn about the climate. In a joint effort, several governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, scientists and educators have created a framework called The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy, detailing seven concepts that are deemed vital for individuals and communities to understand Earth's climate system (USGCRP, 2009). Can students reach climate literacy - as defined by these 7 concepts - if they are taught using a curriculum based on the current state standards? To answer this question, the K-12 state science teaching and learning standards for Texas and California - two states that heavily influence nation-wide textbook creation - were compared against the Essential Principles. The data analysis consisted of two stages, looking for: 1) direct reference to "climate" and "climate change" and 2) indirect reference to the 7 Essential Principles through axial coding. The word "climate" appears in the California K-12 science standards 4 times and in the Texas standards 7 times. The word "climate change" appears in the California and Texas standards only 3 times each. Indirect references to the 7 Essential Principles of climate science literacy were more numerous. Broadly, California covered 6 of the principles while Texas covered all 7. In looking at the 7 principles, the second one "Climate is regulated by complex interactions among component of the Earth system" was the most substantively addressed. Least covered were number 6 "Human activities are impacting the climate system" and number 7 "Climate change will have consequences for the Earth system and human lives." Most references, either direct or indirect, occurred in the high school standards for earth science, a class not required for graduation in either state. This research points to the gaps between what the 7 Essential Principles of Climate Literacy defines as essential knowledge and what students may learn in their K-12 science classes. Thus, the formal system does not seem to offer an experience which can potentially develop a more knowledgeable citizenry who will be able to make wise personal and policy decisions about climate change, falling short of the ultimate goal of achieving widespread climate literacy. Especially troubling was the sparse attention to the principles addressing the human connection to the climate - principles number 6 and 7. If climate literate citizens are to make "wise personal and policy decisions" (USGCRP, 2009), these two principles especially are vital. This research, therefore, has been valuable for identifying current shortcomings in state standards.

Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.; Schwabe, K.

2016-12-01

Using state contingent analysis we discuss how and why irrigators adapt to alternative water supply signals. This analysis approach helps to illustrate how and why producers currently use state-general and state-allocable inputs to adapt and respond to known and possible future climatic alternative natures. Focusing on the timing of water allocations, we explore inherent differences in the demand for water by two key irrigation sectors: annual and perennial producers which in Australia have allowed a significant degree of risk-minimisation during droughts. In the absence of land constraints, producers also had a capacity to respond to positive state outcomes and achieve super-normal profits. In the future, however, the probability of positive state outcomes is uncertain; production systems may need to adapt to minimise losses and/or achieve positive returns under altered water supply conditions that may arise as a consequence of more frequent drought states. As such, producers must assess whether altering current input/output choice sets in response to possible future climate states will enhance their long-run competitive advantage for both expected new normal and extreme water supply outcomes. Further, policy supporting agricultural sector climate change resilience must avoid poorly-designed strategies that increase producer vulnerability in the face of drought. Our analysis explores the reliability of alternative water property right bundles and how reduced allocations across time influence alternative responses by producers. We then extend our analysis to explore how management strategies could adapt to two possible future drier state types: i) where an average reduction in water supply is experienced; and ii) where the frequency of droughts increase. The combination of these findings are subsequently used to discuss the role water reform policy has to deal with current and future climate scenarios. We argue current policy strategies could drive producers to more homogeneous production systems over time, which ultimately entail risky adaptation options under future water supply availability or increased drought frequency scenarios. Lastly, our analysis has shown the flexibility of applying SCA toward examining uncertainty surrounding future states of nature under climate change.

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Butterworth, Melinda K.; Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

2016-01-01

Background: Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission. Objectives: We assessed projected climate change–driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region. Methods: We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic. Results: Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations. Citation: Butterworth MK, Morin CW, Comrie AC. 2017. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:579–585; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP218 PMID:27713106

Field measurement and analysis of climatic factors affecting dune mobility near Grand Falls on the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bogle, Rian; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Vogel, John M.

2015-01-01

Aeolian sand covers extensive areas of the Navajo Nation in the southwestern United States. Much of this sand is currently stabilized by vegetation, although many drier parts of these Native lands also have active and partly active dunes. Current prolonged drought conditions that started in the mid-1990s are producing significant changes in dune mobility. Reactivation of regional aeolian deposits due to drought or increasing aridity from rising temperatures resulting from climate change could have serious consequences for human and animal populations, agriculture, grazing, and infrastructure. To understand and document the current and future potential for mobility, seasonally repeated surveys were used to track the location of multiple active barchan dunes. By utilizing Real-Time Kinematic GPS field surveys and simultaneously collecting in-situ meteorological data, it is possible to examine climatic parameters and seasonal variations that affect dune mobility and their relative influences. Through analysis of the recorded data, we examined the fit of various climate parameters, and demonstrate that under the current prolonged drought, wind power is the dominant factor controlling dune mobility.

Managing for delicious ecosystem service under climate change: can United States sugar maple (Acer saccharum) syrup production be maintained in a warming climate?

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson

2017-01-01

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is a highly valued tree in United States (US) and Canada, and its sap when collected from taps and concentrated, makes a delicious syrup. Understanding how this resource may be impacted by climate change and other threats is essential to continue management for maple syrup into the future. Here, we evaluate the current...

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Cascadia: A climate change prognosis

Treesearch

Sierra C. McLane

2011-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) predict that whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) will lose much of its current climatic range in Cascadia (the Pacific Northwest in the United States plus British Columbia, Canada) by the 2080s as the climate warms. However, the same models indicate that the species will simultaneously gain a large, climatically-favorable habitat...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silverman, L.

This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmberg, Marjorie O.

2010-01-01

This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

2008-01-01

We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable...

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Context. Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being. Objective. We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and...

Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

1998-01-01

Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth?s biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information...

Engaging communities and climate change futures with Multi-Scale, Iterative Scenario Building (MISB) in the western United States

Treesearch

Daniel Murphy; Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel R. Williams; Cory Cleveland; Lisa Eby; Solomon Dobrowski; Erin Towler

2016-01-01

Current projections of future climate change foretell potentially transformative ecological changes that threaten communities globally. Using two case studies from the United States Intermountain West, this article highlights the ways in which a better articulation between theory and methods in research design can generate proactive applied tools that enable...

Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

Treesearch

Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

2010-01-01

Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

75 FR 37405 - Notice of Public Review and Comment Period on NOAA's Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-29

... Federal role in responding to the Nation's most urgent challenges, ranging from climate change, severe... changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, share knowledge and information with others, and conserve... changing climate system and its impacts. Objective: Integrated assessments of current and future states of...

Delineation of climate regions in the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Arthur T. DeGaetano

1996-01-01

Climate is a primary criterion for the development, description and validation of subregional levels of the National Hierarchical Framework of Ecological Units. However, climate information is not currently available in the form or level of detail required for integration with other biophysical factors at the section or subsection levels. In this study, historical...

Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Donald McKenzie

2013-01-01

In these times of rapidly changing climate, the science of detecting and modeling shifts in the ranges of tree species is advancing of necessity. We briefly review the current state of the science on several fronts. First, we review current and historical evidence for shifting ranges and migration. Next, we review two broad categories of methods, focused on the spatial...

Climate change impact on the establishment and seasonal abundance of Invasive Mosquito Species: current state and future risk maps over southeast Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

2017-04-01

Establishment and seasonal abundance of a region for Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS) are related to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. In this work the current state is assessed using data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project over Greece and Italy for the development of current spatial risk databases of IMS. Results are validated from the installation of a prototype IMS monitoring device that has been designed and developed in the framework of the LIFE CONOPS project at key points across the two countries. Since climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the future potentiality of IMS establishment and spread over Greece and Italy is assessed using the climatic parameters in 2050's provided by the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. The need for regional climate projections in a finer grid size is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale GCM simulations. The estimated changes in the future meteorological parameters are combined with the observation data in order to estimate the future levels of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product includes spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

Primer on transportation and climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-01

This primer is an introduction to the issue of climate change and its implications for transportation policy in the United States. Its purpose is to outline the current thinking of governmental agencies, researchers, and advocacy groups on the issue ...

Comparisons of allometric and climate-derived estimates of tree coarse root carbon stocks in forests of the United States

Treesearch

Matthew B. Russell; Grant M. Domke; Christopher W. Woodall; Anthony W. D' Amato

2015-01-01

Background: Refined estimation of carbon (C) stocks within forest ecosystems is a critical component of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of projected climate change through forest C management. Specifically, belowground C stocks are currently estimated in the United States' national greenhouse gas inventory (US NGHGI) using...

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Investigating the Relationship between Ocean Surface Currents and Seasonal Precipitation in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

While many studies have explored the predictive capabilities of teleconnections associated with North American climate, currently established teleconnections offer limited predictability for rainfall in the Western United States. A recent example was the 2015-16 California drought in which a strong ENSO signal did not lead to above average precipitation as was expected. From an exploration of climate and ocean variables available from satellite data, we hypothesize that ocean currents can provide additional information to explain precipitation variability and improve seasonal predictability on the West Coast. Since ocean currents are influenced by surface wind and temperatures, characterizing connections between currents and precipitation patterns has the potential to further our understanding of coastal weather patterns. For the study, we generated gridded point correlation maps to identify ocean areas with high correlation to precipitation time series corresponding to climate regions in the West Coast region. We also used other statistical measures to evaluate ocean `hot spot' regions with significant correlation to West Coast precipitation. Preliminary results show that strong correlations can be found in the tropical regions of the globe.

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leterme, B.

2012-04-01

The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The advantages and weaknesses of using analogue stations are also discussed.

Applications of geographic information systems (GIS) for transportation and climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-31

This report describes the current practice and application of GIS technologies for integrating climate change into the transportation decision-making process. It examines how select state, regional, and local agencies are using GIS to analyze, mitiga...

Is U.S. climatic diversity well represented within the existing federal protection network?

PubMed

Batllori, Enric; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A

Establishing protection networks to ensure that biodiversity and associated ecosystem services persist under changing environments is a major challenge for conservation planning. The potential consequences of altered climates for the structure and function of ecosystems necessitates new and complementary approaches be incorporated into traditional conservation plans. The conterminous United States of America (CONUS) has an extensive system of protected areas managed by federal agencies, but a comprehensive assessment of how this network represents CONUS climate is lacking. We present a quantitative classification of the climate space that is independent from the geographic locations to evaluate the climatic representation of the existing protected area network. We use this classification to evaluate the coverage of each agency's jurisdiction and to identify current conservation deficits. Our findings reveal that the existing network poorly represents CONUS climatic diversity. Although rare climates are generally well represented by the network, the most common climates are particularly underrepresented. Overall, 83% of the area of the CONUS corresponds to climates underrepresented by the network. The addition of some currently unprotected federal lands to the network would enhance the coverage of CONUS climates. However, to fully palliate current conservation deficits, large-scale private-land conservation initiatives will be critical.

Measuring Sexual Violence on Campus: Climate Surveys and Vulnerable Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Heer, Brooke; Jones, Lynn

2017-01-01

Since the 2014 "Not Alone" report on campus sexual assault, the use of climate surveys to measure sexual violence on campuses across the United States has increased considerably. The current study utilizes a quasi meta-analysis approach to examine the utility of general campus climate surveys, which include a measure of sexual violence,…

A Review of the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Aeroallergens and Their Associated Effects (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the release of the final report entitled: A Review of the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Aeroallergens and their Associated Effects. This report is a survey of the current state of scientific knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change ...

Characteristics of Predoctoral Endodontic Education in the United States and Canada.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendel, Robert W.; Scheetz, James P.

1981-01-01

A survey to assess the current state of predoctoral endodontic education programs in U.S. and Canadian dental schools is discussed. The investigation focused on faculty characteristics, the learning climate for endodontics, and problems of administration. Current learning conditions were compared with the desirability of these conditions.…

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

PubMed

Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

2008-05-01

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.

Current State of Climate Education in the United States: Are Graduate Students being Adequately Prepared to Address Climate Issues?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuster, E.; Fox, G.

2016-12-01

Climate change is happening; scientists have already observed changes in sea level, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and declining polar ice. The students of today are the leaders of tomorrow, and it is our duty to make sure they are well equipped and they understand the implications of climate change as part of their research and professional careers. Graduate students, in particular, are gaining valuable and necessary research, leadership, and critical thinking skills, but we need to ensure that they are receiving the appropriate climate education in their graduate training. Previous studies have primarily focused on capturing the K-12, college level, and general publics' knowledge of the climate system, concluding with recommendations on how to improve climate literacy in the classroom. While this is extremely important to study, very few studies have captured the current perception that graduate students hold regarding the amount of climate education being offered to them. This information is important to capture, as it can inform future curriculum development. We developed and distributed a nationwide survey (495 respondents) for graduate students to capture their perception on the level of climate system education being offered and their view on the importance of having climate education. We also investigated differences in the responses based on either geographic area or discipline. We compared how important graduate students felt it was to include climate education in their own discipline versus outside disciplines. The authors will discuss key findings from this ongoing research.

Price, carbon and generation profiles: how partisan differences make the future of climate change uncertain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sautter, John A.; Sautter, Christopher A.

America is very much a divided nation when it comes to politics. That polarization is reflected in the environmental and energy realities currently at play in many states, creating a remarkable divide between more conservative Red States and more liberal Blue States when it comes to the amount of CO{sub 2} emitted into the atmosphere and the price of electricity. These differences pose an enormous obstacle in passing climate change legislation. (author)

Changing Characteristics of convective storms: Results from a continental-scale convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Bullock, R.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Convective storms are causing extremes such as flooding, landslides, and wind gusts and are related to the development of tornadoes and hail. Convective storms are also the dominant source of summer precipitation in most regions of the Contiguous United States. So far little is known about how convective storms might change due to global warming. This is mainly because of the coarse grid spacing of state-of-the-art climate models that are not able to resolve deep convection explicitly. Instead, coarse resolution models rely on convective parameterization schemes that are a major source of errors and uncertainties in climate change projections. Convection-permitting climate simulations, with grid-spacings smaller than 4 km, show significant improvements in the simulation of convective storms by representing deep convection explicitly. Here we use a pair of 13-year long current and future convection-permitting climate simulations that cover large parts of North America. We use the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension (MODE-TD) to analyze the model performance in reproducing storm features in the current climate and to investigate their potential future changes. We show that the model is able to accurately reproduce the main characteristics of convective storms in the present climate. The comparison with the future climate simulation shows that convective storms significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and size. Furthermore, they are projected to move slower which could result in a substantial increase in convective storm-related hazards such as flash floods, debris flows, and landslides. Some regions, such as the North Atlantic, might experience a regime shift that leads to significantly stronger storms that are unrepresented in the current climate.

Climate Science: An Empirical Example of Postnormal Science.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, Dennis; von Storch, Hans

1999-03-01

This paper addresses the views regarding the certainty and uncertainty of climate science knowledge held by contemporary climate scientists. More precisely, it addresses the extension of this knowledge into the social and political realms as per the definition of postnormal science. The data for the analysis is drawn from a response rate of approximately 40% from a survey questionnaire mailed to 1000 scientists in Germany, the United States, and Canada, and from a series of in-depth interviews with leading scientists in each country. The international nature of the sample allows for cross-cultural comparisons.With respect to the relative scientific discourse, similar assessments of the current state of knowledge are held by the respondents of each country. Almost all scientists agreed that the skill of contemporary models is limited. Minor differences were notable. Scientists from the United States were less convinced of the skills of the models than their German counterparts and, as would be expected under such circumstances, North American scientists perceived the need for societal and political responses to be less urgent than their German counterparts. The international consensus was, however, apparent regarding the utility of the knowledge to date: climate science has provided enough knowledge so that the initiation of abatement measures is warranted. However, consensus also existed regarding the current inability to explicitly specify detrimental effects that might result from climate change. This incompatibility between the state of knowledge and the calls for action suggests that, to some degree at least, scientific advice is a product of both scientific knowledge and normative judgment, suggesting a socioscientific construction of the climate change issue.

Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalto, J.; Karjalainen, O.; Hjort, J.; Luoto, M.

2018-05-01

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.

Understanding How Climate Change Could Affect Tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsner, James; Guishard, Mark

2014-11-01

Current understanding of how tornadoes might change with global warming is limited. Incomplete data sets and the small-scale nature of tornadic events make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. A consensus report on the climate of extreme storms found little evidence of trends in tornado frequency in the United States. However new research suggests a potential climate change footprint on tornadoes. Some of this research was presented at the First International Summit on Tornadoes and Climate Change, hosted by Aegean Conferences. The summit took place at the Minoa Palace in Chania, Greece, from 25 to 30 May 2014. Thirty delegates from eight countries—Greece, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Japan, Israel, and Taiwan—participated.

States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Bronzan, J.; Rodehorst, B.; Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Savonis, M.; Wiles, R.

2015-12-01

Many states are already experiencing the costly impacts of extreme climate and weather events. The occurrence, frequency and intensity of these events may change under future climates. Preparing for these changes takes time, and state government agencies and communities need to recognize the risks they could potentially face and the response actions already undertaken. The States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card project is the first-ever study that quantifies five climate-change-driven hazards, and the relevant state government response actions in each of the 50 states. The changing characteristics of extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland and coastal flooding were assessed for the baseline period (around year 2000) through the years 2030 and 2050 across all 50 states. Bias-corrected statistically-downscaled (BCSD) climate projections (Reclamation, 2013) and hydrology projections (Reclamation, 2014) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 were used. The climate change response action analysis covers five critical sectors: Transportation, Energy, Water, Human Health and Communities. It examined whether there is evidence that the state is taking action to (1) reduce current risks, (2) raise its awareness of future risks, (3) plan for adaptation to the future risks, and (4) implement specific actions to reduce future risks for each applicable hazards. Results from the two analyses were aggregated and translated into a rating system that standardizes assessments across states, which can be easily understood by both technical and non-technical audiences. The findings in this study not only serve as a screening tool for states to recognize the hazards they could potentially face as climate changes, but also serve as a roadmap for states to address the gaps in response actions, and to improve climate preparedness and resilience.

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of the USGCRP’s National Climate Assessment (NCA) and as called for under the President’s Climate Action Plan. The authors of this assessment have compiled and assessed current research on human health impacts of climate change and summarized the current “state of the science” for a number of key impact areas. This assessment provides a comprehensive update to the most recent detailed technical assessment for the health impacts of climate change, 2008 Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (SAP 4.6) Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (CCSP 2008). It also updates and builds upon the health chapter of the third NCA (Melillo et al. 2014). The lead and coordinating Federal agencies for the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Institute of Health (NIH), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available at https://health2016.globalchange.gov/ The interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of their National C

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Judith D. Gardiner; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

2013-01-01

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new...

Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Treesearch

James M. Vose; David L. Peterson; Toral Patel-Weynand

2012-01-01

This report is a scientific assessment of the current condition and likely future condition of forest resources in the United States relative to climatic variability and change. It serves as the U.S. Forest Service forest sector technical report for the National Climate Assessment and includes descriptions of key regional issues and examples of a risk-based framework...

Tectonics of the central Andes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloom, Arthur L.; Isacks, Bryan L.; Fielding, Eric J.; Fox, Andrew N.; Gubbels, Timothy L.

1989-01-01

Acquisition of nearly complete coverage of Thematic Mapper data for the central Andes between about 15 to 34 degrees S has stimulated a comprehensive and unprecedented study of the interaction of tectonics and climate in a young and actively developing major continental mountain belt. The current state of the synoptic mapping of key physiographic, tectonic, and climatic indicators of the dynamics of the mountain/climate system are briefly reviewed.

Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century

Treesearch

Anthony P. Bedel; Thomas L. Mote; Scott L. Goodrick

2013-01-01

Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of...

Incorporating Climate Change Effects into Next-Generation Coastal Inundation Decision Support Systems: An Integrated and Community-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Y.; Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; LaRow, T.; Chassignet, E.; Stefanova, L. B.; Lu, J.; Xie, L.; Montalvo, S.; Liu, J.; Liu, B.

2012-12-01

75% of the world population lives within 100 km from the coastline. Coastal communities are subject to increasing coastal inundation risk due to the combined effects of hurricane-induced storm surge, tsunami, climate change, and sea level rise. This study is developing the next generation decision support systems (DSS) for storm surge and coastal inundation by incorporating the climate change impacts on hurricanes and sea level rise (SLR) along the Florida and North Carolina coast. Using a new methodology (instead of the "bath tub" approach) enhanced by the Institute for Sustainable Coastal Environment and Infrastructure (InSCEI) at University of Florida (UF), highly accurate and efficient coastal inundation maps (Base Flood Elevations and Surge Atlas) are being produced for current climate conditions. Atmospheric and climate scientists at Florida State University (FSU) and North Carolina State University (NCSU) are using global (FSU/COAPS) and regional (WRF) atmospheric models to estimate the range in hurricane activities during 2020-2040 and 2080-2100, using projected SSTs from the IPCC CMIP5 climate scenarios as lower boundary conditions. SLR experts at NCSU and FSU are analyzing historical sea level data and conducting numerical modeling to estimate the SLR at the coastal boundaries for the same IPCC scenarios. UF and NCSU are using the hurricane ensembles and the SLR scenarios provided by FSU and NCSU as input to storm surge and inundation models (CH3D-SSMS and CMAEPS, respectively) to produce high resolution inundation maps which include climate change effects. These future-climate coastal inundation maps will be much more accurate than the current ones and greatly improve the stakeholders' ability to mitigate coastal inundation risk throughout the U.S. and the world. These inundation maps for current and future climates will be communicated to a wide spectrum of stakeholders for feedback and further improvement. A national workshop will be held in January 2013 to engage stakeholders, researchers, and managers (federal, state, and local) of coastal inundation to develop strategies to improve communications among the various entities and to gather inputs on the development of the next -generation coastal inundation decision support system.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Drinking Water Treatment Plant Operation

EPA Science Inventory

It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and, therefore, will influence the design and operation of current and future drinking water treatment systems. Some of these impacts may lead to violations ...

Terrestrial ecosystems and their change

Treesearch

Anatoly Z. Shvidenko; Eric Gustafson; A. David McGuire; Vjacheslav I. Kharuk; Dmitry G. Schepaschenko; Herman H. Shugart; Nadezhda M. Tchebakova; Natalia N. Vygodskaya; Alexander A. Onuchin; Daniel J. Hayes; Ian McCallum; Shamil Maksyutov; Ludmila V. Mukhortova; Amber J. Soja; Luca Belelli-Marchesini; Julia A. Kurbatova; Alexander V. Oltchev; Elena I. Parfenova; Jacquelyn K. Shuman

2012-01-01

This chapter considers the current state of Siberian terrestrial ecosystems, their spatial distribution, and major biometric characteristics. Ongoing climate change and the dramatic increase of accompanying anthropogenic pressure provide different but mostly negative impacts on Siberian ecosystems. Future climates of the region may lead to substantial drying on large...

Tightening the Corn Belt.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trisler, Carmen E.

1995-01-01

Presents an activity in which students: identify agricultural crops that are grown in Great Lakes states, understand how global climate change will affect these crops, hypothesize about crops that could replace these, compare the current crops' economic value with projected replacement crops, and analyze the impact of global climate on the…

Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Thayyen, R. J.

2018-01-01

Mountains over the world are considered as the indicators of climate change. The Himalayas are comprised of five ranges, viz., Pir Panjal, Great Himalayas, Zanskar, Ladhak, and Karakorum. The Ladakh region lies in the northernmost state of India, Jammu and Kashmir, in the Ladhak range. It has a unique cold-arid climate and lies immediately south of the Karakorum range. With scarce water resources, such regions show high sensitivity and vulnerability to the change in climate and need urgent attention. The objective of this study is to understand the climate of the Ladakh region and to characterize its changing climate. Using different temperature and precipitation datasets over Leh and surrounding regions, we statistically analyze the current trends of climatic patterns over the region. The study shows that the climate over Leh shows a warming trend with reduced precipitation in the current decade. The reduced average seasonal precipitation might also be associated with some indications of reducing number of days with higher precipitation amounts over the region.

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Future forest aboveground carbon dynamics in the central United States: the importance of forest demographic processes

Treesearch

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Wen J. Wang; Jacob S. Fraser; Stephen R. Shifley; Brice B. Hanberry; William D. Dijak

2017-01-01

The Central Hardwood Forest (CHF) in the United States is currently a major carbon sink, there are uncertainties in how long the current carbon sink will persist and if the CHF will eventually become a carbon source. We used a multi-model ensemble to investigate aboveground carbon density of the CHF from 2010 to 2300 under current climate. Simulations were done using...

Increasing atmospheric CO2 overrides the historical legacy of multiple stable biome states in Africa.

PubMed

Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Bond, William J; Higgins, Steven I

2014-02-01

The dominant vegetation over much of the global land surface is not predetermined by contemporary climate, but also influenced by past environmental conditions. This confounds attempts to predict current and future biome distributions, because even a perfect model would project multiple possible biomes without knowledge of the historical vegetation state. Here we compare the distribution of tree- and grass-dominated biomes across Africa simulated using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). We explicitly evaluate where and under what conditions multiple stable biome states are possible for current and projected future climates. Our simulation results show that multiple stable biomes states are possible for vast areas of tropical and subtropical Africa under current conditions. Widespread loss of the potential for multiple stable biomes states is projected in the 21st Century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 . Many sites where currently both tree-dominated and grass-dominated biomes are possible become deterministically tree-dominated. Regions with multiple stable biome states are widespread and require consideration when attempting to predict future vegetation changes. Testing for behaviour characteristic of systems with multiple stable equilibria, such as hysteresis and dependence on historical conditions, and the resulting uncertainty in simulated vegetation, will lead to improved projections of global change impacts. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

A geoscientist in the State Department

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prather, Michael J.

2006-12-01

It must have been in a fit of idealism, à la Jimmy Stewart, that I applied to be a Jefferson Science Fellow (JSF) at the U.S. Department of State in the summer of 2004. The flyer was appealing, offering an opportunity to become "directly involved with the State Department, applying current knowledge of science and technology in support of the development of U.S. international policy. The Jefferson Science Fellowships enable academic scientists and engineers to act as consultants to the State Department on matters of science, technology, and engineering as they affect foreign policy."My own science—elating to ozone depletion, climate change, and aviation environmental impacts—often has been at the science-policy interface. As a result, I have attended governmental and intergovernmental meetings, particularly the international assessments on climate change and ozone depletion. I had even come to know the State Department team on climate negotiations, although I had never been inside the State Department. The appeal of working on the inside of negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was strong—if only to find out what an 'interlocutor' was.

Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quality regulations are robust under a range of possible future climates and to consider possible policy actions to mitigate climate change, it is important to characterize and understand the effects of climate change on air quality. Recent work by several research groups using global and regional models has demonstrated that there is a "climate penalty," in which climate change leads to increases in surface ozone levels in polluted continental regions. One approach to simulating future air quality at the regional scale is via dynamical downscaling, in which fields from a global climate model are used as input for a regional climate model, and these regional climate data are subsequently used for chemical transport modeling. However, recent studies using this approach have encountered problems with the downscaled regional climate fields, including unrealistic surface temperatures and misrepresentation of synoptic pressure patterns such as the Bermuda High. We developed a downscaling methodology and showed that it now reasonably simulates regional climate by evaluating it against historical data. In this work, regional climate simulations created by downscaling the NASA/GISS Model E2 global climate model are used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ simulations over the continental United States are conducted for two 11-year time slices, one representing current climate (1995-2005) and one following Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from 2025-2035. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone and PM precursors are held constant at year 2006 levels for both the current and future periods. In our presentation, we will examine the changes in ozone and PM concentrations, with particular focus on exceedances of the current U.S. air quality standards, and attempt to relate the changes in air quality to the projected changes in regional climate.

Improving School Climate Is Everybody's Business. City-Neighborhood Schools Initiative.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yanoff, Shelly D.; Collings, Kelley; Jordon, Aldustus; Fynes, Steven E.; Page-Gaither, Melania; Ruiz, Luz; Correll, Audrey; James, Cecilia

Responding to concerns expressed by state legislators, teacher union leadership, the Philadelphia school district, parents, children, and school staff, the Philadelphia Citizens for children and Youth (PCCY) and the Alliance Organizing Project identified perceptions of the current climate in the city's schools and obtained suggestions for…

Vegetation productivity responds to sub-annual climate conditions across semiarid biomes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the Southwestern United States (SW), the current prolonged warm drought is similar to the predicted future climate change scenarios for the region. This study aimed to determine patterns in vegetation response to the early 21st century drought across multiple biomes. We hypothesized that differen...

Climate change : observations on the potential role of carbon offsets in climate change legislation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-05

Currently, carbon offsets are generated, bought, and sold in two types of markets. In markets such as the United States, which does not have binding limits on emissions, the market is referred to as a voluntary market. Conversely, in the European Uni...

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Climate-Driven Risk of Large Fire Occurrence in the Western United States, 1500 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

2017-12-01

Spatially comprehensive fire climatology has provided managers with tools to understand thecauses and consequences of large forest wildfires, but a paleoclimate context is necessary foranticipating the trajectory of future climate-fire relationships. Although accumulated charcoalrecords and tree scars have been utilized in high resolution, regional fire reconstructions, there isuncertainty as to how current climate-fire relationships of the western United States (WUS) fitwithin the natural long-term variability. While contemporary PDSI falls within the naturalvariability of the past, contemporary temperatures skew higher. Here, we develop a WUSfire reconstruction by applying climate-fire-topography model built on the 1972 to 2003 periodto the past 500 years, validated by recently updated fire-scar histories from WUS forests. Theresultant narrative provides insight into changing climate-fire relationships during extendedperiods of high aridity and temperature, providing land managers with historical precedent toeffectively anticipate disturbances during future climate change.

Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

2018-02-01

During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

The Colorado Climate Preparedness Project: A Systematic Approach to Assessing Efforts Supporting State-Level Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, R.; Gordon, E.

2010-12-01

Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda. Project results can also inform numerous other ongoing database efforts connected to the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change.

Characterizing climate-change impacts on the 1.5-yr flood flow in selected basins across the United States: a probabilistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was applied to basins in 14 different hydroclimatic regions to determine the sensitivity and variability of the freshwater resources of the United States in the face of current climate-change projections. Rather than attempting to choose a most likely scenario from the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an ensemble of climate simulations from five models under three emissions scenarios each was used to drive the basin models. Climate-change scenarios were generated for PRMS by modifying historical precipitation and temperature inputs; mean monthly climate change was derived by calculating changes in mean climates from current to various future decades in the ensemble of climate projections. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were fitted to the PRMS model output driven by the ensemble of climate projections and provided a basis for randomly (but representatively) generating realizations of hydrologic response to future climates. For each realization, the 1.5-yr flood was calculated to represent a flow important for sediment transport and channel geomorphology. The empirical probability density function (pdf) of the 1.5-yr flood was estimated using the results across the realizations for each basin. Of the 14 basins studied, 9 showed clear temporal shifts in the pdfs of the 1.5-yr flood projected into the twenty-first century. In the western United States, where the annual peak discharges are heavily influenced by snowmelt, three basins show at least a 10% increase in the 1.5-yr flood in the twenty-first century; the remaining two basins demonstrate increases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Four basins in the eastern Rockies/central United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining two basins demonstrate decreases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Two basins in the eastern United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining basin shows little or no change in the 1.5-yr flood.

Environmental Adult Education for Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production and Fish Farming in Rivers State of Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eheazu, Caroline L.; Ezeala, Joy I.

2017-01-01

The threats of climate change to human society and natural ecosystems have become a devastating environmental problem for crop production and fish farming in Nigeria. This is partly because farmers and fisher folk are known to adopt age-old methods that do not counter current global warming and climate change effects. The purpose of this study was…

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

U.S. Funding is insufficient to address the human health impacts of and public health responses to climate variability and change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Balbus, John; Kinney, Patrick L; Lipp, Erin; Mills, David; O'Neill, Marie S; Wilson, Mark L

2009-06-01

The need to identify and try to prevent adverse health impacts of climate change has risen to the forefront of climate change policy debates and become a top priority of the public health community. Given the observed and projected changes in climate and weather patterns, their current and anticipated health impacts, and the significant degree of regulatory discussion underway in the U.S. government, it is reasonable to determine the extent of federal investment in research to understand, avoid, prepare for, and respond to the human health impacts of climate change in the United States. In this commentary we summarize the health risks of climate change in the United States and examine the extent of federal funding devoted to understanding, avoiding, preparing for, and responding to the human health risks of climate change. Future climate change is projected to exacerbate various current health problems, including heat-related mortality, diarrheal diseases, and diseases associated with exposure to ozone and aeroallergens. Demographic trends and geophysical and socioeconomic factors could increase overall vulnerability. Despite these risks, extramural federal funding of climate change and health research is estimated to be < $3 million per year. Given the real risks that climate change poses for U.S. populations, the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and other agencies need to have robust intramural and extramural programs, with funding of > $200 million annually. Oversight of the size and priorities of these programs could be provided by a standing committee within the National Academy of Sciences.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Assessing Climate Change Perceptions, Management Strategies, and Information Needs for Indiana Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkauer, K. A.; Chin, N.

2016-12-01

The agricultural and forestry sectors in the state of Indiana are highly dependent on climate and, subsequently, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Higher temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, more widespread prevalence of pests and pathogens, and increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events could all have negative effects on these two sectors in the future. Agricultural and forest producers are already modifying their management strategies in response to perceptions of changes in climate risk, but such responses have been primarily reactive in nature and, in many cases, demonstrate a disconnect between scientific findings and stakeholder perceptions of the greatest climate risks. This research has been conducted to help improve understanding of climate change risks to agriculture and forestry in Indiana; stakeholder perceptions of climate risks and their current management strategies; and the effectiveness of these management strategies for dealing with current and future climate risk. Sector-specific focus groups, expert panel assessments and surveys have all been utilized in this work, which will also contribute to the new Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment report.

Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2009-12-01

Is it conceivable that models run on 2007 computer hardware could provide robust and credible probabilistic information for decision support and user guidance at the ZIP code level for sub-daily meteorological events in 2060? In 2090? Retrospectively, how informative would output from today’s models have proven in 2003? or the 1930’s? Consultancies in the United Kingdom, including the Met Office, are offering services to “future-proof” their customers from climate change. How is a US or European based user or policy maker to determine the extent to which exciting new Bayesian methods are relevant here? or when a commercial supplier is vastly overselling the insights of today’s climate science? How are policy makers and academic economists to make the closely related decisions facing them? How can we communicate deep uncertainty in the future at small length-scales without undermining the firm foundation established by climate science regarding global trends? Three distinct aspects of the communication of the uses of climate model output targeting users and policy makers, as well as other specialist adaptation scientists, are discussed. First, a brief scientific evaluation of the length and time scales at which climate model output is likely to become uninformative is provided, including a note on the applicability the latest Bayesian methodology to current state-of-the-art general circulation models output. Second, a critical evaluation of the language often employed in communication of climate model output, a language which accurately states that models are “better”, have “improved” and now “include” and “simulate” relevant meteorological processed, without clearly identifying where the current information is thought to be uninformative and misleads, both for the current climate and as a function of the state of the (each) climate simulation. And thirdly, a general approach for evaluating the relevance of quantitative climate model output for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Onofrio, Donatella; von Hardenberg, Jost; Baudena, Mara

2017-04-01

Many current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), including those incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs), are able to realistically reproduce the distribution of the most worldwide biomes. However, they display high uncertainty in predicting the forest, savanna and grassland distributions and the transitions between them in tropical areas. These biomes are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, and owing to their different biogeophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, future changes in their distributions could have also impacts on climate states. In particular, expected increasing temperature and CO2, modified precipitation regimes, as well as increasing land-use intensity could have large impacts on global biogeochemical cycles and precipitation, affecting the land-climate interactions. The difficulty of the DGVMs in simulating tropical vegetation, especially savanna structure and occurrence, has been associated with the way they represent the ecological processes and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic conditions. The inclusion of appropriate ecological mechanisms under present climatic conditions is essential for obtaining reliable future projections of vegetation and climate states. In this work we analyse observed relationships of tree and grass cover with climate and fire, and the current ecological understanding of the mechanisms driving the forest-savanna-grassland transition in Africa to evaluate the outcomes of a current state-of-the-art DGVM and to assess which ecological processes need to be included or improved within the model. Specifically, we analyse patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA global land cover map, comparing them with the outcomes of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, also used by the EC-Earth global climate model. The comparison analysis with the LPJ-GUESS simulations suggests possible improvements in the model representations of tree-grass competition for water and in the vegetation-fire interaction. The proposed method could be useful for evaluating DGVMs in tropical areas, especially in the phase of model setting-up, before the coupling with Earth System Models. This could help in improving the simulations of ecological processes and consequently of land-climate interactions.

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to themore » economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.« less

Convening Young Leaders for Climate Resilience in New York State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

This project, led by The Wild Center, will partner with Cornell Cooperative Extension of Delaware County, the Kurt Hahn Expeditionary Learning School in Brooklyn, and the Alliance for Climate Education to do the following over three years: 1) increase climate literacy and preparedness planning in high school students through place-based Youth Climate Summits in the Adirondacks, Catskills, and New York City; 2) enhance young people's capacity to lead on climate issues through a Youth Climate Leadership Practicum 3) increase teacher comprehension and understanding of climate change through a Teacher Climate Institute and 4) communicate climate change impacts and resilience through student-driven Community Climate Outreach activities. The project will align with New York State's climate resiliency planning by collaborating with the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Office of Climate (OCC), NYS Energy Research Development Authority (NYSERDA), and NOAA's Climate Program Office to provide accurate scientific information, resources, and tools. This collaboration will result in an increase in understanding of the impacts of climate change in rural (Adirondacks, Catskills) and urban (New York City) regions of New York State; a wider awareness of the threats and vulnerabilities that are associated with a community's location; and a stronger connection between current community resilience initiatives, educators, and youth. All three of the project sites are critically underserved in both climate literacy and action, making addressing the need of these sites to be resilient and proactive in the face of climate change critical. Our model will provide pilot lessons for how youth in both rural and urban areas can draw on local assets to address resiliency in ways appropriate for their own areas, and these lessons may be able to be applied across the United States.The proposed project is informed by best practices and specifically strengthens and replicates The Wild Center's past success with the Adirondack Youth Climate Summit, student leadership, and student-led community outreach for climate awareness - all work that has been tested or piloted over the last seven years.

Variability and Change in the Canadian Cryosphere: A Canadian Science Contribution to International Polar Year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, A. E.; Derksen, C.

2008-12-01

The cryosphere (snow, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, ice caps and glaciers, sea-, river-, and lake ice) represents a significant feature of the Canadian landscape that impacts climate, hydrology, the economy and the daily lives of all Canadians, especially those living in northern communities. Over the past few decades significant changes have been observed in cryospheric elements (e.g. decreases in snow cover, glacier extent, sea ice cover) that have been attributed to a warming climate. This poster presentation will highlight initial scientific results from the approved Canadian International Polar Year project "Variability and Change in the Canadian Cryosphere" that is being led by Environment Canada and involves 33 co- investigators from government, academia and the private sector and links with international collaborators. This project builds on Canadian strengths in remote sensing, climate analysis and modeling with the overall objective to observe and understand the current state of the cryosphere in Canada and determine how fast it is changing and why. Research activities are focused on: (1) developing new satellite-based capabilities to provide information on the current state of the Canadian cryosphere during the IPY period; (2) placing current cryospheric conditions in the context of the historical record to document the magnitude of changes over the 50 years since the last International Polar Year (IGY 1957-1958); (3) characterizing and explaining the observed variability and changes in the context of the coupled climate cryosphere system; and (4) improving the representation of the cryosphere in Canadian land surface and climate models to provide current and future climate simulations of the cryosphere for climate impact studies. The project also includes several outreach activities to engage northern communities in cryospheric monitoring and incorporate traditional knowledge with remotely-sensed information to generate new maps on local river ice and sea ice conditions to assist residents in planning safe navigation routes.

Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Belote, R Travis; Carroll, Carlos; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Michalak, Julia; Williams, John W; Williamson, Matthew A; Aplet, Gregory H

2018-06-21

Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.

Dynamic Agroecological Zones for the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggins, D. R.; Rupp, R.; Gessler, P.; Pan, W.; Brown, D. J.; Machado, S.; Walden, V. P.; Eigenbrode, S.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2011-12-01

Agroecological zones (AEZ's) have traditionally been defined by integrating multiple layers of biophysical (e.g. climate, soil, terrain) and occasionally socioeconomic data to create unique zones with specific ranges of land use constraints and potentials. Our approach to defining AEZ's assumes that current agricultural land uses have emerged as a consequence of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. Therefore, we explore the concept that AEZ's can be derived from classifying the geographic distribution of current agricultural systems (e.g. the wheat-fallow cropping system zone) based on spatially geo-referenced annual cropland use data that is currently available through the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). By defining AEZ's in this way, we expect to: (1) provide baseline information that geographically delineates the boundaries of current AEZ's and subzones and therefore the capacity to evaluate shifts in AEZ boundaries over time; (2) assess the biophysical (e.g. climate, soils, terrain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. commodity prices) that are most useful for predicting and correctly classifying current AEZ's, subzones or future shifts in AEZ boundaries; (3) identify and develop AEZ-relevant climate mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (4) integrate biophysical and socioeconomic data sources to pursue a transdisciplinary examination of climate-driven AEZ futures. Achieving these goals will aid in realizing major objectives for a USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Cooperative Agricultural Project entitled "Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) for Pacific Northwest Agriculture". REACCH is a research, education and extension project under the leadership of the University of Idaho with significant collaboration from Washington State University, Oregon State University and the USDA Agricultural Research Service that is working towards increasing the capacity of Inland Pacific Northwest cereal production systems to adapt to and mitigate climate change. The AEZ concept is central to project-wide integration that will enable researchers, stakeholders, students, the public, and policymakers to acquire a more holistic understanding of the interrelationships of agriculture, climate change and the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore AEZ's are part of a prescription for land management, given climate change that will enable the incorporation of information from climate models, economic models, crop models, pest disease and weed vulnerabilities, and other data sources. Specific to this presentation, we address the AEZ-related objective of developing methodology for defining major AEZ's within the Inland Pacific Northwest REACCH study area based on annual NASS cropland data.

Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

2010-02-01

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.

Climate and atmospheric deposition patterns and trends

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; John Hom; Brian E. Potter

2000-01-01

One of the most important factors impacting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is the atmospheric environment. Climatic and weather events play a significant role in governing the natural processes that occur in these ecosystems. The current characteristics of the vast number of ecosystems that cover the northeast and north central United States are, in part, the...

Current adaptation measures and policies

Treesearch

Geoff Roberts; John A. Parrotta; Anita Wreford

2009-01-01

As stated in earlier chapters, the possible impacts of climate change on forests and the forest sector are considerable, and many impacts have already been observed. As forest conditions change, there is an inherent need to change management and policy measures to minimise negative impacts and to exploit the benefits derived from climate change. This chapter highlights...

Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current quantification of Climate Warming Mitigation Potential (CWMP) of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site-level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM...

Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

2009-01-01

Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

2014-10-01

The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.

Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

2014-01-01

Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

Climate-Smart Seedlot Selection Tool: Reforestation and Restoration for the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson-Molnar, N.; Howe, G.; St Clair, B.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ward, B. C.

2017-12-01

Local populations of trees are generally adapted to their local climates. Historically, this has meant that local seed zones based on geography and elevation have been used to guide restoration and reforestation. In the face of climate change, seeds from local sources will likely be subjected to climates significantly different from those to which they are currently adapted. The Seedlot Selection Tool (SST) offers a new approach for matching seed sources with planting sites based on future climate scenarios. The SST is a mapping program designed for forest managers and researchers. Users can use the tool to to find seedlots for a given planting site, or to find potential planting sites for a given seedlot. Users select a location (seedlot or planting site), climate scenarios (a climate to which seeds are adapted, and a current or future climate scenario), climate variables, and transfer limits (the maximum climatic distance that is considered a suitable match). Transfer limits are provided by the user, or derived from the range of values within a geographically defined seed zone. The tool calculates scores across the landscape based on an area's similarity, in a multivariate climate space, to the input. Users can explore results on an interactive map, and export PDF and PowerPoint reports, including a map of the results along with the inputs used. Planned future improvements include support for non-forest use cases and ability to download results as GeoTIFF data. The Seedlot Selection Tool and its source code are available online at https://seedlotselectiontool.org. It is co-developed by the United States Forest Service, Oregon State University, and the Conservation Biology Institute.

Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

2003-01-01

A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

Career and Technical Education Administration: Requirements, Certification/Licensure, and Preparation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zirkle, Christopher J.; Jeffery, Jeremy O.

2017-01-01

The current climate of career and technical administration requirements in all 50 states was detailed and explored. An increasing number of states are not requiring specific career-technical administration certification/licensure in order to oversee secondary career and technical education (CTE) programs, with more states moving towards a general…

United States Military Theorists: A Study of Patrons and Interests

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-21

fit. As Jomini contends, a general whose genius and hands are tied by an Aulic council, five hundred miles distant, cannot be a match for one who...marketing of exports, and otherwise promote a business climate conducive to profitable activities.31 This is both a boon and a danger for the United States...broadly enough to attune it to the current climate of foreign policy. This balancing is resident in Cebrowski’s theory with its links to key

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Here we review the effects of nitrogen and climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) on four aspects of ecosystem structure and function including hydrologic-coupled nitrogen cycling, carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity. Ecosystems are simultaneously exposed to multiple stressors; two dominant drivers threatening ecosystems are anthropogenic nitrogen loading and climate change. Evaluating the cumulative effects of these stressors provides a holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our current knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but limited. The goal of this paper is to synthesize the state of scientific knowledge on how ecosystems are affected by the interactions of meteorlogic/climatic factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and nitrogen addition. Understanding the interactions of meteorlogic/climatic factors and nitrogen will help to inform how current and projected variability may affect ecosystem response.

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

2014-02-01

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the southwest, 2) review of the current state of extreme event climate science, 3) review what information is available about past extreme events in the southwest, 4) report the results of the 2012 workshop on climate change and extreme events, and 5) propose a method for combining this past information with current climate science information to produce estimates of possible future extreme events in sufficient detail to be useful to water resource managers.

Climate Change and Air Pollution-Related Health Impacts in the United States: Assessment of Current Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, P.; Fann, N.

2016-12-01

Ambient air pollution can be affected by climate in a variety of ways, which in turn have important implications for human health. Observed and projected changes in climate lead to modified weather pat­terns and biogenic emissions, which influence the levels and geographic patterns of outdoor air pollutants of health concern, including ground-level ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The USGCRP scientific assessment of the human health impacts of climate change concluded with high confidence that climate change will make it harder for any given regulatory approach to reduce ground-level ozone pollution in the future as meteorological conditions become increasingly conducive to forming ozone over most of the United States. Unless offset by additional emissions reductions of ozone precursors, these climate-driven increases in ozone will cause premature deaths, hospital visits, lost school days, and acute respiratory symptoms. The evidence for climate impacts on PM2.5 is less robust than that for ozone. However, one mechanism through which climate change is likely to affect PM2.5 as well as O3 in the United States is via impacts on wildfires. Wildfires emit precursors of both fine particles and O3, which increase the risk of premature death and adverse chronic and acute cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. Climate change is projected to increase the number and severity of naturally occurring wildfires in parts of the United States, increasing emissions of particulate matter and ozone precursors and resulting in additional adverse health outcomes. We present the key results and conclusions from a nationwide assessment of O3 health impacts in 2030, as well as new evidence for respiratory health effects of wildfires in the western United States.

Intercomparison of four regional climate models for the German State of Saxonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W.

2009-09-01

Results from four regional climate models which focus on Central Europe are presented: CCLM, the climate version of the German Weather Service's Local Model - REMO, the regional dynamic model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg - STAR, the statistical model developed at the PIK Potsdam Institute and WETTREG, the statistic-dynamic model developed by the company CEC Potsdam. For the area of the German State of Saxonia a host of properties and indicators were analyzed aiming to show the models' abilities to reconstruct the current climate and compare climate model scenarios. These include a group of thermal indicators, such as the number of ice, frost, summer and hot days, the number of tropical nights; then there are hydrometeorological indicators such as the exceedance of low and high precipitation thresholds; humidity, cloudiness and wind indicators complement the array. A selection of them showing similarities and differences of the models investigated will be presented.

Viewing International Students as State Stimulus Potential: Current Perceptions and Future Possibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owens, Deborah L.; Srivastava, Prashant; Feerasta, Aniqa

2011-01-01

In this difficult economic climate state policy makers are increasingly focused on higher education as an economic development tool. Many rust belt states are looking to transform themselves from a state dependent on manufacturing and agriculture to a more diverse knowledge based economy. Many nations use higher education as a catalyst for…

Campaign datasets for Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON)

DOE Data Explorer

Martin,Scot; Mei,Fan; Alexander,Lizabeth; Artaxo,Paulo; Barbosa,Henrique; Bartholomew,Mary Jane; Biscaro,Thiago; Buseck,Peter; Chand,Duli; Comstock,Jennifer; Dubey,Manvendra; Godstein,Allen; Guenther,Alex; Hubbe,John; Jardine,Kolby; Jimenez,Jose-Luis; Kim,Saewung; Kuang,Chongai; Laskin,Alexander; Long,Chuck; Paralovo,Sarah; Petaja,Tuukka; Powers,Heath; Schumacher,Courtney; Sedlacek,Arthur; Senum,Gunnar; Smith,James; Shilling,John; Springston,Stephen; Thayer,Mitchell; Tomlinson,Jason; Wang,Jian; Xie,Shaocheng

2016-05-30

The hydrologic cycle of the Amazon Basin is one of the primary heat engines of the Southern Hemisphere. Any accurate climate model must succeed in a good description of the Basin, both in its natural state and in states perturbed by regional and global human activities. At the present time, however, tropical deep convection in a natural state is poorly understood and modeled, with insufficient observational data sets for model constraint. Furthermore, future climate scenarios resulting from human activities globally show the possible drying and the eventual possible conversion of rain forest to savanna in response to global climate change. Based on our current state of knowledge, the governing conditions of this catastrophic change are not defined. Human activities locally, including the economic development activities that are growing the population and the industry within the Basin, also have the potential to shift regional climate, most immediately by an increment in aerosol number and mass concentrations, and the shift is across the range of values to which cloud properties are most sensitive. The ARM Climate Research Facility in the Amazon Basin seeks to understand aerosol and cloud life cycles, particularly the susceptibility to cloud aerosol precipitation interactions, within the Amazon Basin.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

PubMed Central

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-01-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state. PMID:27461560

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-07-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M

2016-07-27

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or "committed" warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

Treesearch

Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

2017-01-01

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

Associations between School Climate, Suicidal Thoughts, and Behaviors and Ethnicity among Middle School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

La Salle, Tamika P.; Wang, Cixin; Parris, Leandra; Brown, Jacqueline A.

2017-01-01

The purpose of the current study is to investigate the relationships between suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs), school climate, and student demographics among middle school students. The study was conducted with a sample of 152,191 middle school students across 607 schools within 182 school districts in a southeastern state. Results support…

Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

Treesearch

G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

2009-01-01

Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

2018-01-01

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE PAGES

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2016-10-04

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

2017-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population.

PubMed

Tavecchia, Giacomo; Tenan, Simone; Pradel, Roger; Igual, José-Manuel; Genovart, Meritxell; Oro, Daniel

2016-12-01

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

2016-01-01

A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Fransen, Taryn; Fekete, Hanna; Winkler, Harald; Schaeffer, Roberto; Sha, Fu; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte

2016-06-30

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

PubMed

Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

2008-06-01

Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

2018-03-01

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.

U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Climate Response Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey serves the Nation by providing reliable hydrologic information used by others to manage the Nation's water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures more than 20,000 wells each year for a variety of objectives as part of Federal programs and in cooperation with State and local agencies. Water-level data are collected using consistent data-collection and quality-control methods. A small subset of these wells meets the criteria necessary to be included in a 'Climate Response Network' of wells designed to illustrate the response of the ground-water system to climate variations nationwide. The primary purpose of the Climate Response Network is to portray the effect of climate on ground-water levels in unconfined aquifers or near-surface confined aquifers that are minimally affected by pumping or other anthropogenic stresses. The Climate Response Network Web site (http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/) is the official USGS Web site for illustrating current ground-water conditions in the United States and Puerto Rico. The Climate Response Network Web pages provide information on ground-water conditions at a variety of scales. A national map provides a broad overview of water-table conditions across the Nation. State maps provide a more local picture of ground-water conditions. Site pages provide the details about a specific well.

Integrating Climate Projections into Multi-Level City Planning: A Texas Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.; Gelca, R.; Baumer, Z.; Gold, G.

2016-12-01

Climate change impacts on energy and water are a serious concern for many cities across the United States. Regional projections from the National Assessment process, or state-specific efforts as in California and Delaware, are typically used to quantify impacts at the regional scale. However, these are often insufficient to provide information at the scale of decision-making for an individual city. Here, we describe a multi-level approach to developing and integrating usable climate information into planning, using a case study from the City of Austin in Texas, a state where few official climate resources are available. Spearheaded by the Office of Sustainability in collaboration with Austin Water, the first step was to characterize observed trends and future projections of how global climate change might affect Austin's current climate. The City then assembled a team of city experts, consulting engineers, and climate scientists to develop a methodology to assess impacts on regional hydrology as part of its Integrated Water Resource Plan, Austin's 100-year water supply and demand planning effort, an effort which included calculating a range of climate indicators and developing and evaluating a new approach to generating climate inputs - including daily streamflow and evaporation - for existing water availability models. This approach, which brings together a range of public, private, and academic experts to support a stakeholder-initiated planning effort, provides concrete insights into the critical importance of multi-level, long-term engagement for development and application of actionable climate science at the local to regional scale.

Climate change: Evolving technologies, U.S. business, and the world economy in the 21. century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harter, J.J.

1996-12-31

The International Climate Change Partnership presents this report as one of its efforts to present current information on climate change to the public. One often hears about the expenses entailed in protecting the environment. Unfortunately, one hears less about the economic benefits that may be associated with prudent actions to counter environmental threats. This conference is particularly useful because it focuses attention on profitable business opportunities in the United States and elsewhere that arise from practical efforts to mitigate the risks of climate change. The report contains a brief synopsis of each speaker`s address on climate change.

Application of data on climate extremes for the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, K. T.; Fleishman, E.; Cayan, D. R.; Daudert, B.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

We are improving the scientific capacity to evaluate responses of natural resources to climate extremes. We also are enhancing a platform for derivation of and access to customized climate information for the full extent or any subset of the southwestern United States. Extreme climate can have substantial effects on species, ecological and evolutionary processes, and the health of visitors to public lands. We are working with federal and state managers and with researchers who collaborate with decision-makers to use data on climate extremes to inform resource management. Current applications include sudden oak death, estuarine management, and fine-resolution manipulation of montane vegetation. To facilitate practical use of data on climate extremes, we are screening global climate models on the basis of their realism in representing natural regional patterns and extremes of temperature and precipitation, including those driven by El Niño and La Niña. We are assessing how well each model represents different climate elements. We also are delivering point and gridded observations and downscaled model projections, all at daily and 6 km resolution, on past and future climate extremes. Additionally, we are using the downscaled outputs to drive a hydrologic model and derive multiple probabilistic measures of water availability, flood, and drought. Moreover, we are extending the capacity of the Southwest Climate and Environmental Information Collaborative (SCENIC; wrcc.dri.edu/csc/scenic), a product developed by the Western Regional Climate Center, to provide access to diverse observed and simulated data on regional weather and climate, particularly on extremes.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity.

PubMed

Garcia, Raquel A; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

2014-05-02

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.

Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Azhoni, Adani; Goyal, Manish Kumar

2018-06-01

Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact water security. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers to that of the perspectives of development agencies, researchers and farmers in the Himalayan state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the perspectives of various stakeholders for climate change impacts, current adaptation strategies, knowledge gaps and adaptation barriers, particularly in the context of implementing the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the Sikkim State Government, researchers, consultants, local academia, development agencies and farmers. Using Stakeholders Network Analysis tools, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying strategies, and implementing adaptation. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for water security, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them opportunities. Although important steps are being initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and hence, strengthening the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will pay dividends. Knowledge gaps and the need for capacity building identified in this research, based on the understandings of key stakeholders are highly relevant to both the research community and for informing policy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent advances in research on climate and human conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.

2014-12-01

A rapidly growing body of empirical, quantitative research examines whether rates of human conflict can be systematically altered by climatic changes. We discuss recent advances in this field, including Bayesian meta-analyses of the effect of temperature and rainfall on current and future large-scale conflicts, the impact of climate variables on gang violence and suicides in Mexico, and probabilistic projections of personal violence and property crime in the United States under RCP scenarios. Criticisms of this research field will also be explained and addressed.

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Assessing the influence of climate change on flooding hazards following tropical cyclone events in the Southeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica Helen

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20% more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the Southeast United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model flow along these rivers from 1998-2014 with 20% more precipitation during tropical cyclones. The results of this study show that an increase in tropical cyclone precipitation due to future climate change may increase peak flows at the mouths of these Southeast rivers by ˜7-18%. Most tropical cyclones that impact these river basins occur during the low discharge season, and thus rarely produce flooding conditions at their mouths. An extension of the current hurricane season of June-November, due to global climate warming, could encroach upon the wet season in these basins and lead to increased flooding. On average, this analysis shows that an extension of the hurricane season to May-December increased flooding susceptibility by 63% for the rivers analyzed in this study. That is, 4-6 more days per year likely would have been above bankfull discharge if an average tropical cyclone had occurred any day (based on 1998-2014 data) in the months May-December than in the current hurricane season months of June-November. More research is needed on the mechanisms and processes involved in the water balance of the four rivers analyzed in this study, and others in the Southeast United States, and how this is likely to change in the near future with global climate warming.

Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; M.W. Schwartz; Anantha M. Prasad

2004-01-01

We used a combination of two models, DISTRIB and SHIFT ,to estimate potential migration of five tree species into suitable habitat due to climate change over the next 100 years. These species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, are Diospyros viginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar...

Dialogic Action in Climate Change Discussions: An International Study of High School Students in China, New Zealand, Norway and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arya, Diana J.; Parker, Jessica K.

2015-01-01

Global efforts to prepare young developing minds for solving current and future challenges of climate change have advocated interdisciplinary, issues-based instructional approaches in order to transform traditional models of science education as delivering conceptual facts (UNESCO, 2014). This study is an exploration of the online interactions in…

A State-of-the-Art Experimental Laboratory for Cloud and Cloud-Aerosol Interaction Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fremaux, Charles M.; Bushnell, Dennis M.

2011-01-01

The state of the art for predicting climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere with high accuracy is problematic. Confidence intervals on current long-term predictions (on the order of 100 years) are so large that the ability to make informed decisions with regard to optimum strategies for mitigating both the causes of climate change and its effects is in doubt. There is ample evidence in the literature that large sources of uncertainty in current climate models are various aerosol effects. One approach to furthering discovery as well as modeling, and verification and validation (V&V) for cloud-aerosol interactions is use of a large "cloud chamber" in a complimentary role to in-situ and remote sensing measurement approaches. Reproducing all of the complex interactions is not feasible, but it is suggested that the physics of certain key processes can be established in a laboratory setting so that relevant fluid-dynamic and cloud-aerosol phenomena can be experimentally simulated and studied in a controlled environment. This report presents a high-level argument for significantly improved laboratory capability, and is meant to serve as a starting point for stimulating discussion within the climate science and other interested communities.

Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

2013-12-01

Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban planning process by addressing some of these needs. In this paper we highlight the decision tools available today, discuss their application in selected case studies, and present a gap analysis with opportunities for innovation and future work.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE PAGES

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; ...

2017-10-30

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Stormwater Design Return Period Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: How Are States Approaching Resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Lopez, T.

2016-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation in many regions, which is relevant for stormwater engineering designs and resilience in the transportation sector. Existing and future stormwater infrastructure is generally designed for historical and stationary hydrologic conditions. For example, the design return period is based on statistical analysis of past precipitation events, often over a 50-year historical timeline. The design return period translates into how much peak precipitation volume a system is designed for in a state, and provides information about the performance of a drainage structure. The higher the design period used by an engineer for a given stormwater system, the more peak stormwater volume the system can convey. Therefore, design return periods can be associated with a design's near-term and long-term resilience. However, there is a tradeoff between the choice of design return period, the total infrastructure capital cost, and the resilience of a system to heavy precipitation events. This study analyzes current stormwater infrastructure design guidelines for state departments of transportation in the contiguous United States, in order to understand how stormwater design return periods vary across states and provide insight into the resilience of current stormwater systems design. The study found that the design return period varies considerably across the United States by roadway functional class and drainage classification, as well as within climate regions. Understanding this variation will help states identify possible vulnerabilities, highlight deficiencies across states and infrastructure types, and help in updating design return periods to increase the climate resilience of stormwater infrastructure.

Atmospheric CO2: principal control knob governing Earth's temperature.

PubMed

Lacis, Andrew A; Schmidt, Gavin A; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto A

2010-10-15

Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. This is because CO(2), like ozone, N(2)O, CH(4), and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO(2) and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state.

Putting the Assessment into Practice: Applications of Climate and Health Data and Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.; Morris, J.; Luber, G.

2016-12-01

The USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment represents the most up to date synthesis of the scientific literature on the health impacts of climate change in the United States. One of its key messages is that climate change is already affecting the health of people in the United States and around the world, and these impacts are likely to become more extensive over time. Another key message is that all Americans have some degree of vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change at some point in their lives. Conclusions as significant as those call for measures to translate current knowledge into specific actions to protect populations and enhance resilience to the health impacts of climate change. This presentation will summarize efforts underway across the federal government to apply research results and climate and health data to enhancing the resilience of populations. These efforts include the development of early warning systems and other applications of predictive models of weather and climate-related health hazards; partnerships with health professional societies to help translate the assessment's findings into specific recommendations for health professionals; and the development of educational materials to help enhance the resilience of students and their families by enhancing their understanding of the connections between climate, climate change and health.

Climate change on the Colorado River: a method to search for robust management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefe, R.; Fischbach, J. R.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is a principal source of water for the seven Basin States, providing approximately 16.5 maf per year to users in the southwestern United States and Mexico. Though the dynamics of the river ensure Upper Basin users a reliable supply of water, the three Lower Basin states (California, Nevada, and Arizona) are in danger of delivery interruptions as Upper Basin demand increases and climate change threatens to reduce future streamflows. In light of the recent drought and uncertain effects of climate change on Colorado River flows, we evaluate the performance of a suite of policies modeled after the shortage sharing agreement adopted in December 2007 by the Department of the Interior. We build on the current literature by using a simplified model of the Lower Colorado River to consider future streamflow scenarios given climate change uncertainty. We also generate different scenarios of parametric consumptive use growth in the Upper Basin and evaluate alternate management strategies in light of these uncertainties. Uncertainty associated with climate change is represented with a multi-model ensemble from the literature, using a nearest neighbor perturbation to increase the size of the ensemble. We use Robust Decision Making to compare near-term or long-term management strategies across an ensemble of plausible future scenarios with the goal of identifying one or more approaches that are robust to alternate assumptions about the future. This method entails using search algorithms to quantitatively identify vulnerabilities that may threaten a given strategy (including the current operating policy) and characterize key tradeoffs between strategies under different scenarios.

Estimation and modeling of forest attributes across large spatial scales using BiomeBGC, high-resolution imagery, LiDAR data, and inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golinkoff, Jordan Seth

The accurate estimation of forest attributes at many different spatial scales is a critical problem. Forest landowners may be interested in estimating timber volume, forest biomass, and forest structure to determine their forest's condition and value. Counties and states may be interested to learn about their forests to develop sustainable management plans and policies related to forests, wildlife, and climate change. Countries and consortiums of countries need information about their forests to set global and national targets to deal with issues of climate change and deforestation as well as to set national targets and understand the state of their forest at a given point in time. This dissertation approaches these questions from two perspectives. The first perspective uses the process model Biome-BGC paired with inventory and remote sensing data to make inferences about a current forest state given known climate and site variables. Using a model of this type, future climate data can be used to make predictions about future forest states as well. An example of this work applied to a forest in northern California is presented. The second perspective of estimating forest attributes uses high resolution aerial imagery paired with light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing data to develop statistical estimates of forest structure. Two approaches within this perspective are presented: a pixel based approach and an object based approach. Both approaches can serve as the platform on which models (either empirical growth and yield models or process models) can be run to generate inferences about future forest state and current forest biogeochemical cycling.

2000 years of cultural adaptation to climate change in the Southwestern United States.

PubMed

Blinman, Eric

2008-11-01

Modern concerns with climate change often overlook the extensive history of both climate change and human adaptation over the millennia. While questions of human-climate system causation are important, especially to the extent that our current behavior is driving environmental change, human societies have experienced multiple climate changes in the past, independent of causation. The histories of cultural adaptation to those changes can help us understand the dynamic interaction between climate and society, expanding the possibilities for "proactive adaptation" that may be available to us today. The underlying principles of cultural adaptation are generally independent of the source of the climate change, and the lessons of the past can suggest social and economic paths that can lead toward sustainability and away from collapse.

Approaches to monitoring changes in carbon stocks for REDD+

Treesearch

Richard Birdsey; Gregorio Angeles-Perez; Werner A Kurz; Andrew Lister; Marcela Olguin; Yude Pan; Craig Wayson; Barry Wilson; Kristofer Johnson

2013-01-01

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus improving forest-management (REDD+) is a mechanism to facilitate tropical countries' participation in climate change mitigation. In this review we focus on the current state of monitoring systems to support implementing REDD+. The main elements of current monitoring systems - Landsat satellites and...

Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century.

PubMed

Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Maxwell, Charles; Lucash, Melissa S; Scheller, Robert M; Laflower, Danelle M; Miller, Adam D; Tepley, Alan J; Epstein, Howard E; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Thompson, Jonathan R

2018-04-30

The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949-2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.

Anticipating impacts of climate change on fish habitat to support decisionmaking in hydropower licensing: a climate risk study for the Hiram Dam, Saco River, ME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagron, C. S.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issues licenses for non-federal hydropower projects through its Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). Through this multi-stage, multi-year decision process, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) can request studies needed to prescribe license conditions to mitigate dams' effects on trust resources, e.g. fish passages and flow requirements. NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its mandates to maintain fisheries and protected species. Although 30-50 year hydropower licenses and renewals are within the time frame of anticipated risks from changing climate, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating climate science is "too uncertain," and therefore not actionable. The ILP is an opportunity to incorporate climate change risks in this decision process, and to make decisions now to avoid failures later in the system regarding both hydropower reliability (the concern of FERC and the applicant) and ecosystem health (NMFS's concern). NMFS has partnered with climate scientists at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division to co-produce a climate study request for the relicensing of the Hiram Project on the Saco River in Southern Maine. The Saco hosts Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) runs which are not currently self-sustaining. This presentation will describe basin-to-basin variability in both historic river analyses (Hydro-Climate Data Network, HCDN) and projected hydrologic responses of New England rivers to climate forcings using statewide Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) demonstrate the need to develop Saco-specific watershed models. Furthermore, although methods for projecting fishery-relevant metrics (heat waves, flood annual exceedance probabilities) have been proven in nearby basins, this modeling has not been conducted at fishery-relevant thresholds. Climate study requests are an example of bridging between science and applications. We argue that the current state of climate science provides actionable information on climate risks in the region, and will articulate the need and required elements for a Saco-specific climate study request.

Excessive heat and respiratory hospitalizations in New York State: estimating current and future public health burden related to climate change.

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Van Zutphen, Alissa R; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni-An

2012-11-01

Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991-2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080-2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206-607 excess hospital admissions, US$26-$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299-3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080-2099 than in 1991-2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Financing Medical Education by the States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Tim

This document reviews programs and policy options for states concerned with methods of financing medical education. An introductory section considers the current climate for medical education and the health care workforce, noting the rapid movement to managed care and the need to increase the number of primary care physicians. The next section…

States of Emergency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayer, Caroline E.

2012-01-01

Given the stakes and the current economic climate, U.S. higher education officials across the country are stepping up their advocacy efforts, making their voices louder and more persistent than ever. They are vying for the attention of states struggling with increased demands for limited revenues, most choosing to divert dollars from higher…

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.

PubMed

Kistner, Erica Jean

2017-12-08

The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål; Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has recently emerged as a harmful pest of horticultural crops in North America and Europe. Native to East Asia, this highly polyphagous insect is spreading rapidly worldwide. Climate change will add further complications to managing this species in terms of both geographic distribution and population growth. This study used CLIMEX to compare potential H. halys distribution under recent and future climate models using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H. Simulated changes in seasonal phenology and voltinism were examined. Under the possible future climate scenarios, suitable range in Europe expands northward. In North America, the suitable H. halys range shifts northward into Canada and contracts from its southern temperature range limits in the United States due to increased heat stress. Prolonged periods of warm temperatures resulted in longer H. halys growing seasons. However, future climate scenarios indicated that rising summer temperatures decrease H. halys growth potential compared to recent climatic conditions, which in turn, may reduce mid-summer crop damage. Climate change may increase the number of H. halys generations produced annually, thereby enabling the invasive insect to become multivoltine in the northern latitudes of North America and Europe where it is currently reported to be univoltine. These results indicate prime horticultural production areas in Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern Canada are at greatest risk from H. halys under both current and possible future climates. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G.; Kiley, H.; Apling, D.

2010-12-01

Current General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a valuable estimate of both natural and anthropogenic climate changes and variability on global scales. At the same time, future climate projections calculated with GCMs are not of sufficient spatial resolution to address regional needs. Many climate impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so dynamical downscaling is often used to estimate the smaller-scale information based on larger scale GCM output. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and developing decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and heating/cooling degree days based on WRF ensemble runs initialized with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5). Results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans. In addition we evaluated the WRF performance in long-term climate simulations over the Southwestern US and validated against observational datasets.

Motivations and Barriers for Policymakers to Developing State Adaptation Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R.; Sylak-Glassman, E.

2016-12-01

Current approaches for developing high-quality adaptation plan require significant resources. In recent years, communities have grown to embrace adaptive plans across multiple forms, including adaptive capacity assessments, resilience strategies, and vulnerability assessments. Across the United States, as of this writing, 14 states have established adaptation plans, with another 8 states having begun the process. Given the high resources requirements and increasing interest in the development of adaptation plans, we aim to examine patterns behind the establishment of resilience plans at the state level. We examine demographic, financial, political, and physical characteristics associated with different states in an effort to explore the reasoning behind investing in the development of adaptation plans. This analysis considers quantitative and qualitative factors, including recent elections for political parties, politicians' climate-related statements and campaign promises, demographics, budgets, and regional climate threats. The analysis aims to identify motivations for state leadership taking action to develop adaptation plans. Results from the analysis seek to identify the primary drivers and barriers associated with state-wide resilience planning. These results could inform the design of scientific communication tools or approaches to aid future adaptation responses to climate change.

Alaska's renewable energy potential.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2009-02-01

This paper delivers a brief survey of renewable energy technologies applicable to Alaska's climate, latitude, geography, and geology. We first identify Alaska's natural renewable energy resources and which renewable energy technologies would be most productive. e survey the current state of renewable energy technologies and research efforts within the U.S. and, where appropriate, internationally. We also present information on the current state of Alaska's renewable energy assets, incentives, and commercial enterprises. Finally, we escribe places where research efforts at Sandia National Laboratories could assist the state of Alaska with its renewable energy technology investment efforts.

Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass

PubMed Central

Erb, K.-H.; Bais, A.L.S.; Carvalhais, N.; Fetzel, T.; Gingrich, S.; Haberl, H.; Lauk, C.; Niedertscheider, M.; Pongratz, J.; Thurner, M.; Luyssaert, S.

2017-01-01

Carbon stocks in vegetation play a key role in the climate system1–4, but their magnitude and patterns, their uncertainties, and the impact of land use on them remain poorly quantified. Based on a consistent integration of state-of-the art datasets, we show that vegetation currently stores ~450 PgC. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store ~916 PgC, under current climate. This difference singles out the massive effect land use has on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects, i.e. land-use induced biomass stock changes within the same land cover, contribute 42-47% but are underappreciated in the current literature. Avoiding deforestation hence is necessary but not sufficient for climate-change mitigation. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for climate change mitigation. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently only verifiable in temperate forests, where potentials are limited. In contrast, large uncertainties hamper verification in the tropical forest where the largest potentials are located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement. PMID:29258288

Preparing the Way for New Policy Regarding Adaptation of US Electricity Infrastructure to Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Melissa R

2013-10-01

The following pages represent the status of policy regarding adaptation of the electric grid to climate change and proposed directions for new policy development. While strides are being made to understand the current climate and to predict hazards it may present to human systems, both the science and the policy remain at present in an analytical state. The policy proposed in this document involves first continued computational modeling of outcomes which will produce a portfolio of options to be considered in light of specific region-related risks. It is proposed that the modeling continue not only until reasonable policy at variousmore » levels of jurisdiction can be derived from its outcome but also on a continuing basis so that as improvements in the understanding of the state and trajectory of climate science along with advancements in technology arise, they can be incorporated into an appropriate and evolving policy.« less

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

A Review of the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Aeroallergens and Their Associated Effects on Human Morbidity and Mortality in the U.S. (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has released for public comment a draft report entitled, A Review of the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Aeroallergens and their Associated Effects. This draft report is a survey of the current state of scientific knowledge of the potential impacts of clim...

Climate-induced migration of native tree populations and consequences for forest composition

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Martin A. Spetich; Roger W. Perry; James D. Haywood; Shelby Gull Laird; Stacy L. Clark; Justin L. Hart; Scott J. Torreano; Megan L. Buchanan

2014-01-01

The climate of the 13 Southern United States is generally thought to be changing in response to global and continental scale influences; and by 2060, average annual temperature is predicted to be higher and precipitation lower than for the year 2000, the date defined as current for the purposes of this analysis (Figure 10.1). Some southern forest species and...

Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

2000-01-01

The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G.

2010-12-01

Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes.

State of the States 2002: GLSEN's Policy Analysis of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) Safer Schools Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauer, Allison F.

This report presents current information available on each state and the District of Columbia related to education issues that affect lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) youth. It summarizes the laws affecting students, LGBT students. Results from the 2001 National School Climate Survey of the Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network…

Climate Change Impacts on Environmental and Human Exposure to Mercury in the Arctic

PubMed Central

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Rautio, Arja

2015-01-01

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure. PMID:25837201

Climate change impacts on environmental and human exposure to mercury in the arctic.

PubMed

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Rautio, Arja

2015-03-31

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure.

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Learning and Risk Exposure in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.

2015-12-01

Climate change is a gradual process most apparent over long time-scales and large spatial scales, but it is experienced by those affected as changes in local weather. Climate change will gradually push the weather people experience outside the bounds of historic norms, resulting in unprecedented and extreme weather events. However, people do have the ability to learn about and respond to a changing climate. Therefore, connecting the weather people experience with their perceptions of climate change requires understanding how people infer the current state of the climate given their observations of weather. This learning process constitutes a first-order constraint on the rate of adaptation and is an important determinant of the dynamic adjustment costs associated with climate change. In this paper I explore two learning models that describe how local weather observations are translated into perceptions of climate change: an efficient Bayesian learning model and a simpler rolling-mean heuristic. Both have a period during which the learner's beliefs about the state of the climate are different from its true state, meaning the learner is exposed to a different range of extreme weather outcomes then they are prepared for. Using the example of surface temperature trends, I quantify this additional exposure to extreme heat events under both learning models and both RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Risk exposure increases for both learning models, but by substantially more for the rolling-mean learner. Moreover, there is an interaction between the learning model and the rate of climate change: the inefficient rolling-mean learner benefits much more from the slower rates of change under RCP 2.6 then the Bayesian. Finally, I present results from an experiment that suggests people are able to learn about a trending climate in a manner consistent with the Bayesian model.

Land management strategies for improving water quality in biomass production under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

2017-03-01

The Corn Belt states are the largest corn-production areas in the United States because of their fertile land and ideal climate. This attribute is particularly important as the region also plays a key role in the production of bioenergy feedstock. This study focuses on potential change in streamflow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to climate change and land management practices in the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) watershed, Iowa. The watershed is covered primarily with annual crops (corn and soybeans). With cropland conversion to switchgrass, stover harvest, and implementation of best management practices (BMPs) (such as establishing riparian buffers and applying cover crops), significant reductions in nutrients were observed in the SFIR watershed under historical climate and future climate scenarios. Under a historical climate scenario, suspended sediment (SS), total nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) at the outlet point of the SFIR watershed could decrease by up to 56.7%, 32.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, compared with current land use when a portion of the cropland is converted to switchgrass and a cover crop is in place. Climate change could cause increases of 9.7% in SS, 4.1% in N, and 7.2% in P compared to current land use. Under future climate scenarios, nutrients including SS, N, and P were reduced through land management and practices and BMPs by up to 54.0% (SS), 30.4% (N), and 7.1% (P). Water footprint analysis further revealed changes in green water that are highly dependent on land management scenarios. The study highlights the versatile approaches in landscape management that are available to address climate change adaptation and acknowledged the complex nature of different perspectives in water sustainability. Further study involving implementing landscape design and management by using long-term monitoring data from field to watershed is necessary to verify the findings and move toward watershed-specific regional programs for climate adaptation.

Climate engineering and space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrogl, K.-U.; Summerer, L.

2016-12-01

This article provides a comprehensive look at climate engineering and space. Its starting point is that the States are failing to slow down global warming. The consequences for the environment and the economic and societal burden are uncontested. The priority to maintain the use of fossil resources might soon lead to the implementation of deliberate engineering measures to alter the climate instead of reducing the greenhouse gases. The article describes these currently discussed measures for such climate engineering. It will particularly analyse the expected contributions from space to these concepts. Based on this it evaluates the economic and political implications and finally tests the conformity of these concepts with space law.

The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand: a) the variety of actions taken; b) the limitations of actions available to water managers; and c) the effectiveness of actions taken to date. Time permitting, we briefly present the results of 3 in-depth case studies of drought response and current perception of preparedness with respect to future drought and climate change among urban water system managers. We examine the role of governance, system connectivity, public perceptions and other factors in driving decision making and outcomes.

Impacts of climate change on current methodologies for flood risk analysis: Watershed-scale analyses using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, P.; Griffis, V. W.; LaFond, K.

2013-12-01

A changing climate brings about new challenges for flood risk analysis and water resources planning and management. Current methods for estimating flood risk in the US involve fitting the Pearson Type III (P3) probability distribution to the logarithms of the annual maximum flood (AMF) series using the method of moments. These methods are employed under the premise of stationarity, which assumes that the fitted distribution is time invariant and variables affecting stream flow such as climate do not fluctuate. However, climate change would bring about shifts in meteorological forcings which can alter the summary statistics (mean, variance, skew) of flood series used for P3 parameter estimation, resulting in erroneous flood risk projections. To ascertain the degree to which future risk may be misrepresented by current techniques, we use climate scenarios generated from global climate models (GCMs) as input to a hydrological model to explore how relative changes to current climate affect flood response for watersheds in the northeastern United States. The watersheds were calibrated and run on a daily time step using the continuous, semi-distributed, process based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), RMSE to Standard Deviation ratio (RSR) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) were all used to assess model performance. Eight climate scenarios were chosen from GCM output based on relative precipitation and temperature changes from the current climate of the watershed and then further bias-corrected. Four of the scenarios were selected to represent warm-wet, warm-dry, cool-wet and cool-dry future climates, and the other four were chosen to represent more extreme, albeit possible, changes in precipitation and temperature. We quantify changes in response by comparing the differences in total mass balance and summary statistics of the logarithms of the AMF series from historical baseline values. We then compare forecasts of flood quantiles from fitting a P3 distribution to the logs of historical AMF data to that of generated AMF series.

Climate science in a postnormal context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krauss, Werner; von Storch, Hans

2012-03-01

Postnormal Science: The Case of Climate Research; Hamburg, Germany, 4-6 May 2011 Climate research has left the narrow confines of pure science and has entered the public arena. At a workshop organized by Helmholtz Research Centre Geesthacht and the KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, experts from the cultural, social, and natural sciences discussed the current state of climate science through the lens of "postnormal science" (see, e.g., S. O. Funtowicz and J. R. Ravetz, "Science for the postnormal age," Futures,25, 739-755, 1993). Science turns postnormal when facts are uncertain, stakes are high, values are disputed, and decisions are urgent. During the workshop, situations and practices in climate research were identified and discussed to provide a solid empirical basis for a more realistic definition of climate science.

Monitoring Climate Variability and Change in Northern Alaska: Updates to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate and Permafrost Monitoring Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, F. E.; Clow, G. D.; Meares, D. C.

2004-12-01

Observations of long-term climate and surficial geological processes are sparse in most of the Arctic, despite the fact that this region is highly sensitive to climate change. Instrumental networks that monitor the interplay of climatic variability and geological/cryospheric processes are a necessity for documenting and understanding climate change. Improvements to the spatial coverage and temporal scale of Arctic climate data are in progress. The USGS, in collaboration with The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and The Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) currently maintains two types of monitoring networks in northern Alaska: (1) A 15 site network of continuously operating active-layer and climate monitoring stations, and (2) a 21 element array of deep bore-holes in which the thermal state of deep permafrost is monitored. Here, we focus on the USGS Alaska Active Layer and Climate Monitoring Network (AK-CLIM). These 15 stations are deployed in longitudinal transects that span Alaska north of the Brooks Range, (11 in The National Petroleum Reserve Alaska, (NPRA), and 4 in The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)). An informative overview and update of the USGS AK-CLIM network is presented, including insight to current data, processing and analysis software, and plans for data telemetry. Data collection began in 1998 and parameters currently measured include air temperature, soil temperatures (5-120 cm), snow depth, incoming and reflected short-wave radiation, soil moisture (15 cm), wind speed and direction. Custom processing and analysis software has been written that calculates additional parameters such as active layer thaw depth, thawing-degree-days, albedo, cloudiness, and duration of seasonal snow cover. Data from selected AK-CLIM stations are now temporally sufficient to begin identifying trends, anomalies, and inter-annual variability in the climate of northern Alaska.

Recent Challenges Facing US Government Climate Science Access and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carter, J. M.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Climate scientists have long faced politicization of their work, especially those working within the US federal government. However, political interference in federal government climate change science has escalated in the current political era with efforts by political actors to undermine and disrupt infrastructure supporting climate science. This has included funding changes, decreased access to climate science information on federal agency websites, restrictions on media access to scientific experts within the government, and rolling back of science-based policies designed to incorporate and respond to climate science findings. What are the impacts of such changes for both the climate science community and the broader public? What can be done to ensure that access to and application of climate change-related research to policy decisions continues? We will summarize and analyze the state of climate change research and application in the US government. The impacts of political interference in climate change science as well as opportunities the scientific community has to support climate science in the US government, will be discussed.

Two Challenges to Communicating Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreskes, N.; Evans, J. H.; Feng, J.

2011-12-01

Climate scientists have been frustrated by the persistence of public opinion at odds with established scientific evidence about anthropogenic climate change. Traditionally, scientists have attributed the gap between scientific knowledge and public perception to scientific illiteracy, which could be remedied by a better and more abundant supply of well-communicated scientific information. Social scientific research, however, illustrates that this "deficit model" is insufficient to explain the current state of affairs: many individuals who reject the conclusions of climate scientists are highly educated, and some evidence suggests that, among certain demographics, more educated people are more likely than less educated ones to reject climate science. This talk explores two possible sources of resistance to, or outright rejection of, scientific conclusions about climate change: 1) the effects of long-standing organized efforts to challenge climate science and the credibility of climate scientists; 2) conservative Protestant religious beliefs concerning how factual claims about the earth are determined and how their significance is judged.

Public perceptions of climate change as a human health risk: surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta.

PubMed

Akerlof, Karen; Debono, Roberto; Berry, Peter; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Clarke, Kaila-Lea; Rogaeva, Anastasia; Nisbet, Matthew C; Weathers, Melinda R; Maibach, Edward W

2010-06-01

We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%), their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%), and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76%) as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31%) said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45%) and children (33%) are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78-91%), heat-related problems (75-84%), cancer (61-90%), and infectious diseases (49-62%). Canadians also named sunburn (79%) and injuries from extreme weather events (73%), and Maltese cited allergies (84%). However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the salience of the human health consequences associated with climate change.

Public Perceptions of Climate Change as a Human Health Risk: Surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta

PubMed Central

Akerlof, Karen; DeBono, Roberto; Berry, Peter; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Clarke, Kaila-Lea; Rogaeva, Anastasia; Nisbet, Matthew C.; Weathers, Melinda R.; Maibach, Edward W.

2010-01-01

We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%), their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%), and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76%) as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31%) said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45%) and children (33%) are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78–91%), heat-related problems (75–84%), cancer (61–90%), and infectious diseases (49–62%). Canadians also named sunburn (79%) and injuries from extreme weather events (73%), and Maltese cited allergies (84%). However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the salience of the human health consequences associated with climate change. PMID:20644690

Emotional Intelligence: A Key to Improving Federal Chief Information Officer Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borkowski, Tammy M.

2012-01-01

The United States Government relies on information technology to provide services to its citizens, spending more than $600 billion on its products and services in the last decade. Given the current fiscal climate, the Executive Branch of the United States Government has a renewed focus on information technology (IT) innovation, requiring federal…

Forest carbon changes of the United States in response to impacts of disturbances, succession, climate variability and atmospheric chemistry

Treesearch

Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; Jing Chen; kevin McCullough

2008-01-01

U.S. forests and forest products currently offset about 20% of the nation's fossil fuel emissions. Two of the most significant recent scientific findings cast doubt on the sustainability of this offset. First, there are clear indications that the strength of the U.S. forest carbon offset is weakening due to increasing forest age, climate variability, and...

Science You Can Use Bulletin: Upwardly mobile in the western U.S. desert: Blackbrush shrublands respond to a changing climate

Treesearch

Sue Miller; Susan Meyer; Bryce Richardson; Rosemary Pendleton; Burton Pendleton; Stanley Kitchen

2013-01-01

Blackbrush (Colegyne ramosissima) is a desert shrubland species that is currently dominant on over three million acres of the transition zone between the cold desert of the Great Basin and the warm desert of the southwestern United States. Western landscapes are projected to experience unprecedented changes as the climate warms, and researchers at the Rocky Mountain...

Marine Aerosol Precursor Emissions for Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maltrud, Mathew Einar

2016-07-25

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is generated by marine ecosystems and plays a major role in cloud formation over the ocean. Currently, Earth System Models use imposed flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere that is independent of the climate state. We have added DMS as a prognostic variable to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that depends on the distribution of phytoplankton species, and thus changes with climate.

Mountain Climates on the Move: Implications for Past and Future Vegetation Shifts in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wason, J. W., III; Dovciak, M.; Bevilacqua, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change in the northeastern United States is expected to shift climatic (temperature) envelopes for spruce-fir forests upslope and northward decreasing their area in the region by 2100. Coarse scale landscape models however, may not incorporate heterogeneity in climatic conditions in mountains that can create climatic refugia for species in high-elevation spruce-fir forests. To determine spatial and temporal trends in climate of mountain spruce-fir forests we measured microclimate at 98 forest plots in 2012 and 2013 on 12 mountains in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. By linking regional climate trends with our spatial climate data we calculated elevational shifts in temperature envelopes during the last 50 years. Additionally we linked our spatial dataset to a range of future climate conditions for 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (1 to 5°C warming). We hypothesized that climates have already changed to an extent that spruce-fir forests should begin to respond and that future climate conditions may shift suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests beyond their current range. We found that regional climate change over the last 50 years has resulted in warming of 0.66 and 1.62°C for average annual daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in the region. When linked to our spatial microclimate model, this warming results in a 100 (Tmax) and 312m (Tmin) upslope shift in temperature envelopes. Future climate projections suggest that by 2100 Tmax may shift upslope between 152 and 758m for the 1 and 5°C scenarios respectively, while Tmin may shift upslope between 192 and 962m. Spruce-fir forests typically occupy an elevation range of ~500m suggesting that the climate experienced in these forests 50 years ago may not be found within their elevation range by 2100. These results are discussed in the context of responses of tree populations and growth rates observed along the elevation gradients of northeastern United States.

Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Van Zutphen, Alissa R.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni-An

2012-01-01

Background: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. Objective: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. Methods: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. Results: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991–2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080–2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206–607 excess hospital admissions, US$26–$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299–3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. Conclusions: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080–2099 than in 1991–2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial. PMID:22922791

Evaluating Options for Improving California's Drought Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Schwarz, A.; Wi, S.; Correa, M.; Brown, C.

2015-12-01

Through a unique collaborative arrangement, the University of Massachusetts (UMass) and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) have together performed a baseline climate change analysis of the California state (State Water Project) and federal (Central Valley Project) water systems. The first step in the baseline analysis was development of an improved basinwide hydrologic model covering a large area of California including all major tributaries to the state and federal water systems. The CalLite modeling system used by DWR for planning purposes allowed simulation of the system of reservoirs, rivers, control points, and deliveries which are then used to create performance metrics that quantify a wide range of system characteristics including water deliveries, water quality, and environmental/ecological factors. A baseline climate stress test was conducted to identify current vulnerabilities to climate change through the linking of the modeling chain with Decision Scaling concepts through the UMass bottom-up climate stress-testing algorithm. This procedure allowed the first comprehensive climate stress analysis of the California state and federal water systems not constrained by observed historical variability and wet-dry year sequences. A forward-looking drought vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the water systems based on this workflow is ongoing and preliminary results will be presented. Presentation of results will include discussion of the collaborative arrangement between DWR and UMass, which is instrumental to both the success of the research and the education of policy makers.

Atlas of climatic controls of wildfire in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Bartlein, P.J.; Holman, J.O.

2006-01-01

Wildfire behavior depends on several factors including ecologic characteristics, near-term and antecedent climatic conditions,fuel availability and moisture level, weather, and sources of ignition (lightning or human). The variability and interplay of these factors over many spatial and temporal scales present an ongoing challenge to our ability to forecast a given wildfire season. Here we focus on one aspect of wildfire in the western US through a retrospective analysis of wildfire (starts and area burned) and climate over monthly time scales. We consider prefire conditions up to a year preceding fire outbreaks. For our analysis, we used daily and monthly wildfire records and a combination of observed and model-simulated atmospheric and surface climate data. The focus of this report is on monthly wildfire and climate for the period 1980-2000. Although a longer fire record is desirable, the 21-year record is the longest currently available and it is sufficient for the purpose of a first-order regional analysis. We present the main results in the form of a wildfire-climate atlas for 8 subregions of the West that can be used by resource managers to assess current wildfire conditions relative to high, normal, and low fire years in the historical record. Our results clearly demonstrate the link between wildfire conditions and a small set of climatic variables, and our methodology is a framework for providing near-real-time assessments of current wildfire conditions in the West.

Nitrogen use efficiency in the US economy: Towards mitigation of climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houlton, B. Z.; Boyer, E. W.; Finzi, A. C.; Galloway, J. N.; Leach, A.; Liptzin, D.; Melillo, J. M.; Rosenstock, T.; Sobota, D. J.; Townsend, A. R.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen (N) interacts strongly with climate change in determining the severity and extent of many human health and environmental issues, such as eutrophication, poor air quality, and the maintenance of a secure food system. We were motivated by such N-climate interactions and their environmental impacts as part of a broader assessment of N in the continental United States. We here seek to identify and quantify inefficiencies associated with intentional N creation (i.e., creating synthetic N fertilizers and cultivating N-fixing legumes) among the major N-dependent sectors of the United States economy. We define efficiency of N use as the proportion N directly incorporated into food, fiber, biofuel, and industrial goods from the pool of intentionally created N. We are interested in whether reductions in N use could be achieved without changing the current functioning of the major N-dependent economic sectors. Our analysis points to substantial inefficiencies in N use at the national scale. A large percentage of the N applied as synthetic fertilizer and fixed by legumes annually fails to enter the United States food supply. Much of the unincorporated N enters air, land and water, where it can impact human health and ecosystems. The climate change forcing of N is uncertain, though it appears that the combined effects of intentionally and unintentionally created N on climate is roughly neutral in the United States (i.e., net effect of N-enhanced C storage, nitrous oxide emissions, N-based aerosols, and tropospheric ozone on climate forcing). Thus, it is reasonable to expect that improved efficiencies in N use would have minimal negative side effects on the United States economy, human health and the environment. We suggest that policies aimed at improving N-use efficiencies are an alternative to direct climate mitigation strategies in offsetting several impacts of climate change on human health and ecosystem functioning.

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

Managing United States public lands in response to climate change: a view from the ground up.

PubMed

Ellenwood, Mikaela S; Dilling, Lisa; Milford, Jana B

2012-05-01

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed Central

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-01-01

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Plutzar, Christoph; Bais, Anna Liza S.; Carvalhais, Nuno; Fetzel, Tamara; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Lauk, Christian; Niedertscheider, Maria; Pongratz, Julia; Thurner, Martin; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2018-01-01

Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.

Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass.

PubMed

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Plutzar, Christoph; Bais, Anna Liza S; Carvalhais, Nuno; Fetzel, Tamara; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Lauk, Christian; Niedertscheider, Maria; Pongratz, Julia; Thurner, Martin; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2018-01-04

Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Riper, Charles; Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Mattson, David; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Nowak, Erika M.; Ironside, Kirsten; Peters, Michael; Heinrich, Paul; Cole, K.L.; Truettner, C.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.

2014-01-01

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.

Conservation assessment of current and proposed nature reserves of Tamaulipas State, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cantú, César; Wright, R. Gerald; Scott, J. Michael; Strand, Eva

2003-01-01

The Mexican state of Tamaulipas located in the northeastern portion of the country currently has five state nature reserves covering slightly less than 3% of its land area. These reserves were established for a variety of reasons, many unrelated to the protection of biological resources. In 2000 in response to a growing concern about the lack of organized conservation reserve planning to protect the important biological and physical features of Mexico, the Mexican Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (CONABIO) proposed 13 new terrestrial reserves for Tamaulipas. If established these new reserves would increase the proportion of terrestrial protected lands in the state to over 21%. We compiled a geographic information system (GIS) using existing digital thematic maps of physical and biological features to examine how the existing and proposed reserves might serve to protect the biodiversity and physical features of the state. We found that most of the existing protected sites occur in areas with elevations > 1000-2000 m with temperate climate and dominated by pine forest, oak forest, and cloud forest vegetation cover types. The state's dominant biotic region - low elevation coastal plain with tropical and arid climate types and xeric scrub vegetation - is disproportionately underrepresented in the current reserve system. The creation of the proposed areas would substantially increase the protection of mid and high elevation lands. The largest gap in the protected lands network would be low elevation, level, coastal lands.

Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.

Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude thatmore » a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.« less

Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

DOE PAGES

Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; ...

2016-11-23

Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude thatmore » a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.« less

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-01

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

Common Schools: Classical Schools Citizenship Education in a Pluralistic State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pitts, Timothy Wade

2011-01-01

In the current political climate, where many politicians in both Europe and United States have proclaimed that multi-cultural education has failed as an educational paradigm, there is a growing fear that the very idea of a democratic, multicultural society is untenable over time. In this dissertation, I explore three responses to the question of…

Immigration Policy's Harmful Impacts on Early Care and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Hannah; Ullrich, Rebecca; Cervantes, Wendy

2018-01-01

The Center for Law and Social Policy (CLASP) conducted the first ever multi-state study of the effects of the current immigration climate on young children under age 8. In 2017, CLASP interviewed early care and education providers, community-based social service providers, and immigrant parents in six states. The findings, detailed in "Our…

INCORPORATING CATASTROPHES INTO INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT: SCIENCE, IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes,...

Biofuels for transportation : a climate perspective

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

As the United States seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from motor vehicles and to lessen its dependence on imported oil, biofuels are gaining increasing attention as one possible solution. This paper offers an introduction to the current...

RETScreen Plus Software Tutorial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganoe, Rene D.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; DeYoung, Russell J.

2014-01-01

Greater emphasis is being placed on reducing both the carbon footprint and energy cost of buildings. A building's energy usage depends upon many factors one of the most important is the local weather and climate conditions to which it's electrical, heating and air conditioning systems must respond. Incorporating renewable energy systems, including solar systems, to supplement energy supplies and increase energy efficiency is important to saving costs and reducing emissions. Also retrofitting technologies to buildings requires knowledge of building performance in its current state, potential future climate state, projection of potential savings with capital investment, and then monitoring the performance once the improvements are made. RETScreen Plus is a performance analysis software module that supplies the needed functions of monitoring current building performance, targeting projected energy efficiency improvements and verifying improvements once completed. This tutorial defines the functions of RETScreen Plus as well as outlines the general procedure for monitoring and reporting building energy performance.

Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seebacher, Frank; White, Craig R.; Franklin, Craig E.

2015-01-01

Understanding how climate change affects natural populations remains one of the greatest challenges for ecology and management of natural resources. Animals can remodel their physiology to compensate for the effects of temperature variation, and this physiological plasticity, or acclimation, can confer resilience to climate change. The current lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity for physiological plasticity across taxonomic groups and geographic regions, however, constrains predictions of the impacts of climate change. Here, we assembled the largest database to date to establish the current state of knowledge of physiological plasticity in ectothermic animals. We show that acclimation decreases the sensitivity to temperature and climate change of freshwater and marine animals, but less so in terrestrial animals. Animals from more stable environments have greater capacity for acclimation, and there is a significant trend showing that the capacity for thermal acclimation increases with decreasing latitude. Despite the capacity for acclimation, climate change over the past 20 years has already resulted in increased physiological rates of up to 20%, and we predict further future increases under climate change. The generality of these predictions is limited, however, because much of the world is drastically undersampled in the literature, and these undersampled regions are the areas of greatest need for future research efforts.

Global distribution of particle phase state in atmospheric secondary organic aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiraiwa, Manabu; Li, Ying; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Berkemeier, Thomas; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos; Koop, Thomas; Pöschl, Ulrich

2017-04-01

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are a large source of uncertainty in our current understanding of climate change and air pollution. The phase state of SOA is important for quantifying their effects on climate and air quality, but its global distribution is poorly characterized. We developed a method to estimate glass transition temperatures based on the molar mass and molecular O:C ratio of SOA components, and we used the global chemistry climate model EMAC with the organic aerosol module ORACLE to predict the phase state of atmospheric SOA. For the planetary boundary layer, global simulations indicate that SOA are mostly liquid in tropical and polar air with high relative humidity, semi-solid in the mid-latitudes and solid over dry lands. We find that in the middle and upper troposphere SOA should be mostly in a glassy solid phase state. Thus, slow diffusion of water, oxidants and organic molecules could kinetically limit gas-particle interactions of SOA in the free and upper troposphere, promote ice nucleation and facilitate long-range transport of reactive and toxic organic pollutants embedded in SOA.

Global distribution of particle phase state in atmospheric secondary organic aerosols.

PubMed

Shiraiwa, Manabu; Li, Ying; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Karydis, Vlassis A; Berkemeier, Thomas; Pandis, Spyros N; Lelieveld, Jos; Koop, Thomas; Pöschl, Ulrich

2017-04-21

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are a large source of uncertainty in our current understanding of climate change and air pollution. The phase state of SOA is important for quantifying their effects on climate and air quality, but its global distribution is poorly characterized. We developed a method to estimate glass transition temperatures based on the molar mass and molecular O:C ratio of SOA components, and we used the global chemistry climate model EMAC with the organic aerosol module ORACLE to predict the phase state of atmospheric SOA. For the planetary boundary layer, global simulations indicate that SOA are mostly liquid in tropical and polar air with high relative humidity, semi-solid in the mid-latitudes and solid over dry lands. We find that in the middle and upper troposphere SOA should be mostly in a glassy solid phase state. Thus, slow diffusion of water, oxidants and organic molecules could kinetically limit gas-particle interactions of SOA in the free and upper troposphere, promote ice nucleation and facilitate long-range transport of reactive and toxic organic pollutants embedded in SOA.

Global distribution of particle phase state in atmospheric secondary organic aerosols

PubMed Central

Shiraiwa, Manabu; Li, Ying; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Berkemeier, Thomas; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos; Koop, Thomas; Pöschl, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are a large source of uncertainty in our current understanding of climate change and air pollution. The phase state of SOA is important for quantifying their effects on climate and air quality, but its global distribution is poorly characterized. We developed a method to estimate glass transition temperatures based on the molar mass and molecular O:C ratio of SOA components, and we used the global chemistry climate model EMAC with the organic aerosol module ORACLE to predict the phase state of atmospheric SOA. For the planetary boundary layer, global simulations indicate that SOA are mostly liquid in tropical and polar air with high relative humidity, semi-solid in the mid-latitudes and solid over dry lands. We find that in the middle and upper troposphere SOA should be mostly in a glassy solid phase state. Thus, slow diffusion of water, oxidants and organic molecules could kinetically limit gas–particle interactions of SOA in the free and upper troposphere, promote ice nucleation and facilitate long-range transport of reactive and toxic organic pollutants embedded in SOA. PMID:28429776

Preparation of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and State Soil Geographic Data Base (STATSGO) data for global change research in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

Loius R. Iverson; Anantha M. G. Prasad; Charles T. Scott

1996-01-01

The USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and the Natural Resource Conservation Service's State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data bases provide valuable natural resource data that can be analyzed at the national scale. When coupled with other data (e.g., climate), these data bases can provide insights into factors associated with current and...

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W.

2014-01-01

This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

Toward optimizing the delivery and use of climate science for natural resource management: lessons learned from recent adaptation efforts in the southwestern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, C.

2014-12-01

Within the past decade, a wealth of federal, state, and NGO-driven initiatives has emerged across managed landscapes in the United States with the goal of facilitating a coordinated response to rapidly changing climate and environmental conditions. In addition to acquisition and translation of the latest climate science, climate vulnerability assessment and scenario planning at multiple spatial and temporal scales are typically major components of such broad adaptation efforts. Numerous approaches for conducting this work have emerged in recent years and have culminated in general guidance and trainings for resource professionals that are specifically designed to help practitioners face the challenges of climate change. In particular, early engagement of stakeholders across multiple jurisdictions is particularly critical to cultivate buy-in and other enabling conditions for moving the science to on-the-ground action. I report on a suite of adaptation efforts in the southwestern US and interior Rockies, highlighting processes used, actions taken, lessons learned, and recommended next steps to facilitate achieving desired management outcomes. This includes a discussion of current efforts to optimize funding for actionable climate science, formalize science-management collaborations, and facilitate new investments in approaches for strategic climate-informed monitoring and evaluation.

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and governance reflect community resilience for adaptive management is critical for envisioning urban and natural environments that can persist through extreme weather events and longer-term shifts in climate. To be successful, this interaction of these five domains must result in maintaining quality of life and ensuring equal access to the benefits or the protection from harm for all segments of the population. An exhaustive literature review of climate resilience approaches was conducted examining the two primary elements of resilience—vulnerability and recoverability. The results of this review were examined to determine if any existing frameworks addressed the above five major areas in an integrated manner. While some aspects of a resilience model were available for existing sources, no comprehensive approach was available. A new conceptual model for resilience to climate events is proposed that incorporates some available structures and addresses these five domains at a national, regional, state, and county spatial scale for a variety of climate-induced events ranging from superstorms to droughts and their concomitant events such as wildfires, floods, and pest invasions. This conceptua

The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.

Model-based evidence for persistent species zonation shifts in the southern Rocky Mountains under a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Shuman, J. K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Dwire, K. A.; Fornwalt, P.; Sibold, J.; Negrón, J. F.

2016-12-01

Forests in the Rocky Mountains are a crucial part of the North American carbon budget, but increases in disturbances such as insect outbreaks and fire, in conjunction with climate change, threaten their vitality. Mean annual temperatures in the western United States have increased by 2°C since 1950 and the higher elevations are warming faster than the rest of the landscape. It is predicted that this warming trend will continue, and that by the end of this century, nearly 50% of the western US landscape will have climate profiles with no current analog within that region. Individual tree-based modeling allows various climate change scenarios and their effects on forest dynamics to be tested. We use an updated individual-based gap model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) at a subalpine site in the southern Rocky Mountains. UVAFME has been quantitatively and qualitatively validated in the southern Rocky Mountains, and results show that UVAFME-output on size structure, biomass, and species composition compares reasonably to inventory data and descriptions of vegetation zonation and successional dynamics for the region. We perform a climate sensitivity test in which temperature is first increased linearly by 2°C over 100 years, stabilized for 200 years, cooled back to present climate values over 100 years, and again stabilized for 200 years. This test is conducted to determine what effect elevated temperatures may have on vegetation zonation, and how persistent the changes may be if the climate is brought back to its current state. Results show that elevated temperatures within the southern Rocky Mountains may lead to decreases in biomass and changes in species composition as species migrate upslope. These changes are also likely to be fairly persistent for at least one- to two-hundred years. The results from this study suggest that UVAFME and other individual-based gap models can be used to inform forest management and climate mitigation strategies for this vitally important region.

A bottom-up, vulnerability-based framework for identifying the adaptive capacity of water resources systems in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, Sam; Noble, Stephanie; Timbs, Michael; Yates, Adam; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Maier, Holger; Westra, Seth

2015-04-01

Water resource system infrastructure and operating policies are commonly designed on the assumption that the statistics of future rainfall, temperature and other hydrometeorological variables are equal to those of the historical record. There is now substantial evidence demonstrating that this assumption is no longer valid, and that climate change will significantly impact water resources systems worldwide. Under different climatic inputs, the performance of these systems may degrade to a point where they become unable to meet the primary objectives for which they were built. In such a changing context, using existing infrastructure more efficiently - rather than planning additional infrastructure - becomes key to restore the system's performance at acceptable levels and minimize financial investments and associated risk. The traditional top-down approach for assessing climate change impacts relies on the use of a cascade of models from the global to the local scale. However, it is often difficult to utilize this top-down approach in a decision-making procedure, as there is disparity amongst various climate projections, arising from incomplete scientific understanding of the complicated processes and feedbacks within the climate system, and model limitations in reproducing those relationships. In contrast with this top-down approach, this study contributes a framework to identify the adaptive capacity of water resource systems under changing climatic conditions adopting a bottom-up, vulnerability-based approach. The performance of the current system management is first assessed for a comprehensive range of climatic conditions, which are independent of climate model forecasts. The adaptive capacity of the system is then estimated by re-evaluating the performance of a set of adaptive operating policies, which are optimized for each climatic condition under which the system is simulated. The proposed framework reverses the perspective by identifying water system vulnerability drivers and by enhancing the adaptive capacity of the system to respond to unforeseen events, in order to design robust and resilient adaptation measures. The approach is demonstrated on the multipurpose operation of the Lake Como system, located in Northern Italy, accounting for flood protection and irrigation supply. Numerical results show that our framework successfully identified the failure boundary based on current system management policies, which is demonstrated as being particularly sensitive to decreases in both precipitation and temperature. To estimate the likelihood of the climate being in states causing system failures and to provide a time frame for reaching such states, we consider 22 climate model projections; these projections suggest that the current management policies will lead to a high chance of failure over the next 40 years. The adaptive capacity of the re-optimized operating policies exhibits the potential for partially mitigating adverse climate change impacts and for extending the life of the system.

Methodology to assess and map the potential development of forest ecosystems exposed to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition: A pilot study in Germany.

PubMed

Schröder, Winfried; Nickel, Stefan; Jenssen, Martin; Riediger, Jan

2015-07-15

A methodology for mapping ecosystems and their potential development under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition was developed using examples from Germany. The methodology integrated data on vegetation, soil, climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. These data were used to classify ecosystem types regarding six ecological functions and interrelated structures. Respective data covering 1961-1990 were used for reference. The assessment of functional and structural integrity relies on comparing a current or future state with an ecosystem type-specific reference. While current functions and structures of ecosystems were quantified by measurements, potential future developments were projected by geochemical soil modelling and data from a regional climate change model. The ecosystem types referenced the potential natural vegetation and were mapped using data on current tree species coverage and land use. In this manner, current ecosystem types were derived, which were related to data on elevation, soil texture, and climate for the years 1961-1990. These relations were quantified by Classification and Regression Trees, which were used to map the spatial patterns of ecosystem type clusters for 1961-1990. The climate data for these years were subsequently replaced by the results of a regional climate model for 1991-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. For each of these periods, one map of ecosystem type clusters was produced and evaluated with regard to the development of areal coverage of ecosystem type clusters over time. This evaluation of the structural aspects of ecological integrity at the national level was added by projecting potential future values of indicators for ecological functions at the site level by using the Very Simple Dynamic soil modelling technique based on climate data and two scenarios of nitrogen deposition as input. The results were compared to the reference and enabled an evaluation of site-specific ecosystem changes over time which proved to be both, positive and negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

One Strategy for Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Change Communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romm, J.

2011-12-01

Future impacts of climate change are invariably presented with a very wide range of impacts reflecting two different sets of uncertainties. The first concerns our uncertainty about precisely how much greenhouse gas emissions humanity will emit into the atmosphere. The second concerns our uncertainty about precisely what impact those emissions will have on the climate. By failing to distinguish between these two types of uncertainties, climate scientists have not clearly explained to the public and policymakers what the scientific literature suggests is likely to happen if we don't substantially alter our current emissions path. Indeed, much of climate communications has been built around describing the range of impacts from emissions paths that are increasingly implausible given political and technological constraints, such as a stabilization at 450 or 550 parts per million atmospheric of carbon dioxide. For the past decade, human emissions of greenhouse gases have trended near the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions paths that reach 800 ppm or even 1000 ppm. The current policies of the two biggest emitters, the United States and China, coupled with the ongoing failure of international negotiations to come to an agreement on restricting emissions, suggests that recent trends will continue for the foreseeable future. This in turn suggests that greater clarity in climate change communications could be achieved by more clearly explaining to the public what the scientific literature suggests the range of impacts are for our current high emissions path. This also suggests that more focus should be given in the scientific literature to better constraining the range of impacts from the high emissions scenarios.

Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning

PubMed Central

Theobald, David M.; Harrison-Atlas, Dylan; Monahan, William B.; Albano, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings. PMID:26641818

Tree migration detection through comparisons of historic and current forest inventories

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Christopher M. Oswalt; James A. Westfall; Charles H. Perry; Mark N. Nelson

2009-01-01

Changes in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. The examination of tree species shifts in forests of the eastern United States largely has been limited to modeling activities with little empirical analysis of long-term forest inventory datasets. The goal of this study was to compare historic and current spatial...

Whole canopy gas exchange among elite loblolly pine families subjected to drought stress

Treesearch

Wilson G. Hood; Michael C. Tyree; Dylan N. Dillaway; Michael A. Blazier; Mary Anne Sword Sayer

2012-01-01

Future climate change simulations predict that the southeastern United States will experience hydrologic patterns similar to that currently found in the Western Gulf Region, meaning, that planted elite loblolly families may be subject to drier, hotter summers (Ruosteenoja et al. 2003, Field et al. 2007). Currently, there is little research on how these fast-growing...

U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Sonya A.; Dalton, Melinda S.

2012-01-01

Climate change challenges many of the basic assumptions routinely used by conservation planners and managers, including the identification and prioritization of areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions and the assumption those conditions could be controlled by management actions. Climate change will likely alter important ecosystem drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain current environmental conditions into the future. Additionally, the potential for future conservation of non-conservation lands may be affected by climate change, which further complicates resource planning. Potential changes to ecosystem drivers, as a result of climate change, highlight the need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change. The U.S. Congress, recognized the potential effects of climate change and authorized the creation of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) in 2008. The directive of the NCCWSC is to produce science that supports resource-management agencies as they anticipate and adapt to the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats. On September 14, 2009, U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010), which expanded the mandate of the NCCWSC to address climate-change-related impacts on all DOI resources. Secretarial Order 3289 "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources," established the foundation of two partner-based conservation science entities: Climate Science Centers (CSC) and their primary partners, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase the understanding of climate change, and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. The NCCWSC is establishing a network of eight DOI CSCs (Alaska, Southeast, Northwest, North Central, Pacific Islands, Southwest, Northeast, and South Central) that will work with a variety of partners and stakeholders to provide resource managers the tools and information they need to help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The Southeast CSC, a federally led research collaboration hosted by North Carolina State University, was established in 2010. The Southeast CSC brings together the expertise of federal and university scientists to address climate-change priority needs of federal, state, non-governmental, and tribal resource managers. This document is the first draft of a science and operational plan for the Southeast CSC. The document describes operational considerations, provides the context for climate-change impacts in the Southeastern United States, and establishes six major science themes the Southeast CSC will address in collaboration with partners. This document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change.

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Walker, John F.; Kenow, Kevin P.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Garrison, Paul J.; Hanson, Paul C.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays

PubMed

Marsh; Svensmark

2000-12-04

The influence of solar variability on climate is currently uncertain. Recent observations have indicated a possible mechanism via the influence of solar modulated cosmic rays on global cloud cover. Surprisingly the influence of solar variability is strongest in low clouds (

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

2018-03-01

Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ly, Vickie; Gao, Michael; Cary, Cheryl; Turnbull-Appell, Sophie; Surunis, Anton

2016-01-01

The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.

The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Progress and Next Steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidmiller, D.; Lewis, K.; Reeves, K.

2017-12-01

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 mandates the production of a quadrennial National Climate Assessment (NCA) that integrates, evaluates, and interprets global change science. The NCA analyzes observed and projected trends in global change and evaluates related impacts across a range of sectors and regions in the United States. The fourth assessment, NCA4, is currently under development by nearly 300 Federal and non-Federal experts and is expected to be available for public comment in Fall 2017 and released in late 2018. NCA4 is a key component of the US Global Change Research Program's Sustained Assessment process, which aims to advance the science of global change and provide authoritative, relevant information for decision makers. This talk will highlight the progress of NCA4, including an overview of the current draft of the assessment and advances since the third NCA, released in 2014. It will highlight the Climate Science Special Report, an essential component of NCA4, as well as provide insight into the public engagement process-including opportunities to participate-and identify scientific inputs and tools critical to its development, such as the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report and USGCRP's new scenario products website.

An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; C.M. Oswalt; J.A. Westfall; C.H. Perry; M.D. Nelson; A.O. Finley

2009-01-01

Changes in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. The examination of tree species shifts in forests of the eastern United States largely has been limited to simulation activities due to a lack of consistent, long-term forest inventory datasets. The goal of this study was to compare current geographic distributions of...

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

PubMed

Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

2017-08-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (<10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

PubMed Central

White, M. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Jones, G. V.; Pal, J. S.; Giorgi, F.

2006-01-01

Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wine-producing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35°C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies. PMID:16840557

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-04-05

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Branstator, Grant

The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to externalmore » forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of especially predictable patterns in the North Atlantic. The most predictable of these retain predictability substantially longer than generic patterns, with some being predictable for two decades.« less

Understanding climate policy data needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Molly E.; Macauley, Molly

2012-08-01

NASA Carbon Monitoring System: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty; Washington, D. C, 11 January 2012 Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices, and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes derived from observations of Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere used in state-of-the-art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on reductions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process.

How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States, and how will that change in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dongyue; Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Durand, Michael; Adam, Jennifer; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2017-06-01

In the western United States, the seasonal phase of snow storage bridges between winter-dominant precipitation and summer-dominant water demand. The critical role of snow in water supply has been frequently quantified using the ratio of snowmelt-derived runoff to total runoff. However, current estimates of the fraction of annual runoff generated by snowmelt are not based on systematic analyses. Here based on hydrological model simulations and a new snowmelt tracking algorithm, we show that 53% of the total runoff in the western United States originates as snowmelt, despite only 37% of the precipitation falling as snow. In mountainous areas, snowmelt is responsible for 70% of the total runoff. By 2100, the contribution of snowmelt to runoff will decrease by one third for the western U.S. in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Snowmelt-derived runoff currently makes up two thirds of the inflow to the region's major reservoirs. We argue that substantial impacts on water supply are likely in a warmer climate.

Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

2012-12-01

The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

The health impacts of climate-related migration.

PubMed

Schwerdtle, Patricia; Bowen, Kathryn; McMichael, Celia

2017-12-11

Changes in climate, in conjunction with other drivers of mobility, shape human migration. While there is an increasing focus on the adaptive potential of migration, the health impacts of climate-related migration, including planned relocation and forced displacement, have not been thoroughly examined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that migration is currently, and will increasingly be, influenced by environmental degradation and climate change, and that it needs to be addressed in a focused and coordinated manner. This paper examines the links between climate change, migration, and health, considering diverse migration responses, including immobility, forced displacement and planned migration, as well as the associated health risks and opportunities in different contexts. Using case studies, the paper illustrates strategies to reduce the health risks associated with climate change-related migration. While there is an increasing body of research examining the climate change-migration nexus, a dual approach is now required. This approach must include debate and further research regarding the health consequences and responses associated with climate migration as well as immediate strengthening of health systems to make them both climate resilient and migrant inclusive.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Corridor-wide Safety Data Analysis and Identification of Existing Successful Safety Programs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-06-01

Many diverse factors contribute to motor vehicle crashes. States have multiple competing priorities and limited resources to address these priorities, so there is a need, particularly in our current economic climate, to prioritize interventions and s...

Education for a Green and Resilient Economy: An Educator Framework for Teaching Climate and Energy Literacy for K-12 Teachers Across the Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F., III; Ledley, T. S.; Lockwood, J.; Youngman, E.; Manning, C. L. B.; Sullivan, S. M.

2015-12-01

The U.S. is embarking on a major transition to a green and resilient economy, a monumental change requiring all sectors and segments of the population to pull together. Transforming our nation's economic, energy, and environmental systems to in this way will require a sustained level of expertise, innovation, and cooperative effort unseen since the 1940s to meet the challenges involved. Education can - and must - help people understand the true connections, the linkages and interdependencies, between the environment, our energy sources and the economy which underpin and form the very foundation of the concept of a green and resilient economy. To produce such a literate future workforce and citizenry, the United States will need to make major new investments in our educational systems. Teachers across the nation are helping to increase science-based understanding and awareness of current and future climate change, enhancing climate and energy literacy in K-12 classrooms, on college and university campuses. There has been tremendous progress to date, but there is still more work to be done. The new academic standards in mathematics and science (the Common Core State Standards in Mathematics and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS)) represent a sea change from the nation's previous sets of standards. Addressing these standards in the currently over 40 percent of the nation's classrooms that have adopted or adapted the NGSS will demand that we prepare new and current teachers, who can effectively address the interdisciplinary nature of climate change and societal responses. To address this opportunity and need a collaboration between NOAA, TERC and CIRES has been established to develop an Educator Framework for Teaching Climate and Energy Literacy for K-12 teachers across the curriculum based on the NRC Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas. This collaboration is developing an effective way to frame the use of resources and practices to help teachers address the NGSS using the CLEAN (Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network, cleanet.org) and Climate.gov products and models to engage students as citizens of a low-carbon and climate-resilient future. The results of this collaboration will be discussed in the session.

Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

2017-05-01

The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

AMS Climate Studies: Improving climate literacy through undergraduate education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; Kiley, T. P., Jr.; Ruwe, E. E.

2009-12-01

In working to promote scientific literacy among the public, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has produced a suite of introductory college-level courses that engage students by investigating relevant topics in Earth science, and utilizing the most current, real-world environmental data. The newest of these courses, AMS Climate Studies, is a turnkey package which will be licensed by individual colleges for local offering in online, blended, or traditional lecture/lab settings. The course will place students in a dynamic learning environment where they will investigate Earth’s climate system using real-world data. This will allow the course to keep a strong focus on the science, while still addressing many of the societal impacts that draw the attention of today’s students. In this way, the course will serve as a great primer in preparing students to become responsible, scientifically-literate participants in discussions of climate science and climate change. Developed with major support from NASA, AMS Climate Studies will encourage students to investigate the atmosphere and world ocean as components of a larger Earth system. More than 500 colleges and universities throughout the United States have already offered AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies, after which AMS Climate Studies will be modeled. The learning system will consist of a fully-integrated set of printed and online learning materials focused around a brand new, hardcover 15-chapter textbook, Climate Studies: Introduction to Climate Science and an Investigations Manual with 30 lab-style activities that will emphasize the use of authentic science data. The package will also include a course website providing weekly Current Climate Studies activities along with access to environmental data streams, including an impressive suite of NASA and NOAA images and products. The development and testing of AMS Climate Studies is currently nearing completion. A number of college and university professors have been selected to pilot the program in Spring 2010, with major emphasis placed on representing a diverse array of institution types, degree programs, course delivery methods, academic backgrounds, etc. The materials will be vigorously tested and updated accordingly. AMS Climate Studies will be available for implementation at your institution beginning Fall 2010.

A Summary of Proposed Changes to the Current ICARTT Format Standards and their Implications to Future Airborne Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Northup, Emily; Benson Early, Amanda; Beach, Aubrey; Wang, Dali; Kusterer, John; Quam, Brandi; Chen, Gao

2015-01-01

The Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at NASA Langley Research Center is responsible for the ingest, archive, and distribution of NASA Earth Science data in the areas of radiation budget, clouds, aerosols, and tropospheric chemistry. The ASDC specializes in atmospheric data that is important to understanding the causes and processes of global climate change and the consequences of human activities on the climate. The ASDC currently supports more than 44 projects and has over 1,700 archived data sets, which increase daily. ASDC customers include scientists, researchers, federal, state, and local governments, academia, industry, and application users, the remote sensing community, and the general public.

Potential impacts of climate change on the built environment: ASHRAE climate zones, building codes and national energy efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

New, Joshua Ryan; Kumar, Jitendra; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Statement of the Problem: ASHRAE releases updates to 90.1 “Energy Standard for Buildings except Low-Rise Residential Buildings” every three years resulting in a 3.7%-17.3% increase in energy efficiency for buildings with each release. This is adopted by or informs building codes in nations across the globe, is the National Standard for the US, and individual states elect which release year of the standard they will enforce. These codes are built upon Standard 169 “Climatic Data for Building Design Standards,” the latest 2017 release of which defines climate zones based on 8, 118 weather stations throughout the world and data frommore » the past 8-25 years. This data may not be indicative of the weather that new buildings built today, will see during their upcoming 30-120 year lifespan. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: Using more modern, high-resolution datasets from climate satellites, IPCC climate models (PCM and HadGCM), high performance computing resources (Titan) and new capabilities for clustering and optimization the authors briefly analyzed different methods for redefining climate zones. Using bottom-up analysis of multiple meteorological variables which were the subject matter, experts selected as being important to energy consumption, rather than the heating/cooling degree days currently used. Findings: We analyzed the accuracy of redefined climate zones, compared to current climate zones and how the climate zones moved under different climate change scenarios, and quantified the accuracy of these methods on a local level, at a national scale for the US. Conclusion & Significance: There is likely to be a significant annual, national energy and cost (billions USD) savings that could be realized by adjusting climate zones to take into account anticipated trends or scenarios in regional weather patterns.« less

Morphological Inheritance in Sandy Coastline Morphologies Subject to Long-Term Changes in Wave Climate: Surprising Insights from a Coastline Evolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Thomas, C.; Hurst, M. D.; Barkwith, A.; Ashton, A. D.; Ellis, M. A.

2014-12-01

Recent numerical modelling demonstrates that when sandy coastlines are affected predominantly by waves approaching from "high" angles (> ~45° between the coastline and wave crests at the offshore limit of shore-parallel contours), large-scale (kms to 100 kms) morphodynamic instabilities and finite-amplitude interactions can lead to the emergence of striking coastline features, including sand waves, capes and spits. The type of feature that emerges depends on the wave climate, defined as the angular distribution of wave influences on alongshore sediment transport. Under a constant wave climate, coastline morphology reaches a dynamical steady state; the cross-shore/alongshore aspect ratio and the general appearance of the features remains constant. In previous modelling involving wave-climate change, as well as comparisons between observed coastline morphologies and wave climates, it has been implicitly assumed that the morphology adjusts in a quasi-equilibrium fashion, so that at any time the coastline shape reflects the current forcing. However, here we present new model results showing pronounced path dependence in coastline morphodynamics. In experiments with a period of constant wave climate followed by a period of transition to a new wave climate and then a run-on phase, the features that exist during the run-on phase can be qualitatively and quantitatively different from those that would develop initially under the final wave climate. Although the features inherited from the past wave-climate history may in some case be true alternate stable states, in other cases the inherited features gradually decay toward the morphology that would be expected given the final wave climate. A suite of such experiments allows us to characterize how the e-folding timescale of this decay depends on 1) the initial wave climate, 2) the path through wave-climate space, and 3) the rate of transition. When the initial features are flying spits with cross-shore amplitudes of 6 - 8 km, e-folding times can be on the order of millennia or longer. These results could provide a new perspective when interpreting current and past coastline features. In addition, the complex paleo-coastline structure that develops in the coastal hinterlands in these experiments could be relevant to the structures observed in some coastal environments.

Multi-objective optimization for evaluation of simulation fidelity for precipitation, cloudiness and insolation in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.

2016-12-01

Precipitation is one of the most important climate variables that are taken into account in studying regional climate. Nevertheless, how precipitation will respond to a changing climate and even its mean state in the current climate are not well represented in regional climate models (RCMs). Hence, comprehensive and mathematically rigorous methodologies to evaluate precipitation and related variables in multiple RCMs are required. The main objective of the current study is to evaluate the joint variability of climate variables related to model performance in simulating precipitation and condense multiple evaluation metrics into a single summary score. We use multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal tradeoff solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to characterize the joint representation of precipitation, cloudiness and insolation in RCMs participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-North America (CORDEX-NA). We also leverage ground observations, NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). Overall, the quantitative comparison of joint probability density functions between the three variables indicates that performance of each model differs markedly between sub-regions and also shows strong seasonal dependence. Because of the large variability across the models, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections using only models showing relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimized multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than the arithmetic ensemble mean and may guide reliable future projections.

NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2014-12-01

NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

2015-12-01

This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

Tourism climatology past and present: A review of the role of the ISB Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation.

PubMed

de Freitas, C R

2017-09-01

The Executive Board of the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) founded the Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation (CCTR) at the 15th International Congress of Biometeorology in Sydney, Australia in 1999. The aims of the CCTR are to bring together researchers from around the world to critically review the current state of knowledge in tourism and recreation climatology and explore possibilities for future research. Almost two decades on, research in tourism climatology has developed and expanded due in large part to the initiatives and activities of the CCTR and several collaborative research projects run under the auspices of the CCTR. This work is reviewed here. Recent CCTR meeting highlighted the fact that, although climate is an essential part of the resource base for tourism, which is one of the world's biggest and fastest growing industries, relatively little is known about the effects of climate on tourist choices and broad demand patterns or the influence climate has on the commercial prospects and sustainability of tourism operators and destinations. The work here reviews what has been done, its conceptual underpinnings and current research frontiers.

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

The role of the oceans in changes of the Earth's climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schuckmann, K.

2016-12-01

Any changes to the Earth's climate system affect an imbalance of the Earth's energy budget due to natural or human made climate forcing. The current positive Earth's energy imbalance is mostly caused by human activity, and is driving global warming. Variations in the world's ocean heat storage and its associated volume changes are a key factor to gauge global warming, to assess changes in the Earth's energy budget and to estimate contributions to the global sea level budget. Present-day sea-level rise is one of the major symptoms of the current positive Earth Energy Imbalance. Sea level also responds to natural climate variability that is superimposing and altering the global warming signal. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It has been also shown that sea level variability in other regions of the Indo-Pacific area significantly alters estimates of the rate of sea level rise, i.e. in the Indonesian archipelago. In summary, improving the accuracy of our estimates of global Earth's climate state and variability is critical for advancing the understanding and prediction of the evolution of our climate, and an overview on recent findings on the role of the global ocean in changes of the Earth's climate system with particular focus on sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific region will be given in this contribution.

An Archive of Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections for Planning Applications in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Pruitt, T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P. B.

2007-12-01

Incorporating climate change information into long-term evaluations of water and energy resources requires analysts to have access to climate projection data that have been spatially downscaled to "basin-relevant" resolution. This is necessary in order to develop system-specific hydrology and demand scenarios consistent with projected climate scenarios. Analysts currently have access to "climate model" resolution data (e.g., at LLNL PCMDI), but not spatially downscaled translations of these datasets. Motivated by a common interest in supporting regional and local assessments, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and LLNL (through support from the DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory) have teamed to develop an archive of downscaled climate projections (temperature and precipitation) with geographic coverage consistent with the North American Land Data Assimilation System domain, encompassing the contiguous United States. A web-based information service, hosted at LLNL Green Data Oasis, has been developed to provide Reclamation, LLNL, and other interested analysts free access to archive content. A contemporary statistical method was used to bias-correct and spatially disaggregate projection datasets, and was applied to 112 projections included in the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset hosted by LLNL PCMDI (i.e. 16 GCMs and their multiple simulations of SRES A2, A1b, and B1 emissions pathways).

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-10-20

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Drake Passage on the Ocean's Thermal and Mechanical Energy Budget in a Coupled AOGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Heydt, A. S.; Viebahn, J. P.

2016-12-01

During the Cenozoic Earth's climate has undergone a major long-term transition from `greenhouse' to `icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The gradual cooling may be seen as response to the overall slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2-concentration due to weathering processes in the Earth System, however, continental geometry has changed considerably over this period and the long-term gradual trend was interrupted, by several rapid transitions and periods where temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be decoupled. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary ( 34 Ma, E/O) and mid-Miocene climatic transition ( 13 Ma, MCT) reflect major phases of Antarctic ice sheet build-up and global climate cooling, while Northern Hemisphere ice sheets developed much later ( 2.7Ma). Thresholds in atmospheric CO2-concentration together with feedback mechanisms related to land ice formation are among the favoured mechanisms of these climatic transitions, while the long-proposed ocean circulation changes caused by opening of tectonic gateways seem to play a less direct role. The opening of the Southern Ocean gateways, however, has eventually led to the development of today's strongest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, playing a major role in the transport properties of the global ocean circulation. The overall state of the global ocean circulation, therefore, must precondition the climate system to dramatic events such as major ice sheet formation. Closing Drake Passage in ocean-only and coupled climate models under otherwise present-day boundary conditions has become a classic experiment, indicating that there exists a considerable uncertainty in the climate response of those models to a closed Drake Passage. Here we quantify the climate response to a closed Drake Passage in a state-of-the-art coupled climate model (CESM). We show that the ocean gateway mechanism is robust in the sense that the equatorward expansion of the Southern Ocean sub-polar gyres inevitably leads to widespread warming around Antarctica. Moreover, we provide a framework to characterise the ocean temperature response to a closed Drake Passage in terms of both the mechanical and thermal energy budget of the ocean.

Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

PubMed Central

Houle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

Carbon stocks on forestland of the United States, with emphasis on USDA Forest Service ownership

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith; Christopher W. Woodall; David L. Azuma; Karen L. Waddell

2011-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) manages one-fifth of the area of forestland in the United States. The Forest Service Roadmap for responding to climate change identified assessing and managing carbon stocks and change as a major element of its plan. This study presents methods and results of estimating current forest carbon stocks and change in...

Carbon stocks on forestland of the United States, with emphaisis on USDA Forest Service ownership

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith; Christopher W. Woodall; Dave Azuma; Karen L. Waddell

2011-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) manages one-fifth of the area of forestland in the United States. The Forest Service Roadmap for responding to climate change identified assessing and managing carbon stocks and change as a major element of its plan. This study presents methods and results of estimating current forest carbon stocks and change in...

Collaborating for success: implementation of the interior Alaska inventory

Treesearch

Brendt Mueller; Dan Irvine

2015-01-01

Interior Alaska’s boreal forests are approximately 112 million acres in size, or 15 percent of the United States forest land. This is currently a very dynamic region with rising temperatures, melting permafrost, changes in vegetation, fire, carbon, and water cycles due to a warming climate. This is the last forested area in the United States where the national Forest...

Atlas of climate change effects in 150 bird species of the Eastern United States

Treesearch

Stephen Matthews; Raymond O' Connor; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2004-01-01

NOTE: Instructions for navigating this publication can be found on the front cover. This atlas documents the current and potential future distribution of 150 common bird species in the Eastern United States. Distribution data for individual species were derived from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1981 to 1990. Regression tree analysis was used to model the BBS...

Using climate and genetic diversity data to prioritize conservation seed banking for imperiled hemlock species

Treesearch

J.M. Hastings; K.M. Potter; F.H. Koch; M.A. Megalos; R.M. Jetton

2017-01-01

Hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) is an invasive forest insect that has caused mortality of eastern (Tsuga canadensis) and Carolina hemlock (T. caroliniana) at an alarming rate. Now infesting 19 states and over 400 counties of the eastern United States, HWA poses a significant threat to native host species. The current biological and chemical methods for...

Defining a landscape-scale monitoring tier for the North American Carbon Program. Chapter 1

Treesearch

David Y. Hollinger

2008-01-01

Better knowledge of carbon stocks and fluxes is needed to understand the current state of the carbon cycle and how it might evolve with changing land uses and climatic conditions. For Canada, the United States, and Mexico, the North American Carbon Program (NACP) has been devised to measure and understand the sources and sinks of CO2, CH

Quantifying the Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases: What Does It Take to Satisfy Scientific and Decision-Making Needs?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. J.; Keller, K.; Ogle, S. M.; Smith, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are key drivers of anthropogenic climate change. It is hence not surprising that current and emerging U.S. governmental science priorities and programs focused on climate change (e.g. a U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan; the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program, the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Executive Order 13653 'Preparing the U.S. for the Impacts of Climate Change') all call for an improved understanding of these sources and sinks.. Measurements of the total atmospheric burden of these gases are well established, but measurements of their sources and sinks are difficult to make over spatial and temporal scales that are relevant for scientific and decisionmaking needs. Quantifying the uncertainty in these measurements is particularly challenging. This talk reviews the intersection of the state of knowledge of GHG sources and sinks, focusing in particular on CO2 and CH4, and science and decision-making needs for this information. Different science and decision-making needs require differing levels of uncertainty. A number of high-priority needs (early detection of changes in the Earth system, projections of future climate, support of markets or regulations) often require a high degree of accuracy and/or precision. We will critically evaluate current U.S. planning to documents to infer current perceived needs for GHG source/sink quantification, attempting to translate these needs into quantitative uncertainty metrics. We will compare these perceived needs with the current state of the art of GHG source/sink quantification, including the apparent pattern of systematic differences between so-called "top down" and "bottom-up" flux estimates. This comparison will enable us to identify where needs can be readily satisfied, and where gaps in technology exist. Finally, we will examine what steps could be taken to close existing gaps.

A 10-year climatology of pollen aerosol for the continental United States: implications for aerosol-climate interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wozniak, M. C.

2016-12-01

Our current understanding of biological particles and their role in the climate system is uncertain. Pollen, a primary biological aerosol particle, has been understudied in the context of climate and atmospheric science because of its coarse size (10-100 µm). Local coarse grain pollen concentrations can reach up to 10,000 grains m-3, and when ruptured by wet or turbulent atmospheric conditions, can produce fine particles (sub-pollen particles, 10-1000 nm) that may increase pollen's lifetime in the atmosphere. Therefore, pollen contributes to both coarse and fine particle loads in the atmosphere that may have climatic impacts. During peak pollen emissions season, what impacts does pollen have on aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and their indirect forcing? Here we use a model of accurately timed and scaled pollen and sub-pollen particle emissions with climate-dependent phenological dates for four plant functional types (deciduous broadleaf, evergreen needleleaf, grass and ragweed) that dominate emissions across the continental United States. Terrestrial pollen emissions are coupled with the land component of a regional climate model (RegCM4-CLM), and are transported as atmospheric tracers that are allowed interact with radiation and clouds, accounting for the direct and indirect effects of pollen. A ten-year climatology of pollen emissions and climate interactions is calculated for both pollen grains and sub-pollen particles. Its implications for the local and overall radiation budget, aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and regional climate are discussed.

Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2012-01-01

Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.

Critical acid load limits in a changing climate: implications and solutions

Treesearch

Steven G. McNulty

2010-01-01

The federal agencies of the United States are currently developing guidelines for critical nitrogen load limits for U.S. forest ecosystems. These guidelines will be used to develop regulations designed to maintain pollutant inputs below the level shown to damage specified ecosystems.

Climate stability of habitable Earth-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menou, Kristen

2015-11-01

The carbon-silicate cycle regulates the atmospheric CO2 content of terrestrial planets on geological timescales through a balance between the rates of CO2 volcanic outgassing and planetary intake from rock weathering. It is thought to act as an efficient climatic thermostat on Earth and, by extension, on other habitable planets. If, however, the weathering rate increases with the atmospheric CO2 content, as expected on planets lacking land vascular plants, the carbon-silicate cycle feedback can become severely limited. Here we show that Earth-like planets receiving less sunlight than current Earth may no longer possess a stable warm climate but instead repeatedly cycle between unstable glaciated and deglaciated climatic states. This has implications for the search for life on exoplanets in the habitable zone of nearby stars.

Authoritative school climate, number of parents at home, and academic achievement.

PubMed

Huang, Francis L; Eklund, Katie; Cornell, Dewey G

2017-12-01

School climate is widely recognized as an important factor in promoting student academic achievement. The current study investigated the hypothesis that a demanding and supportive school climate, based on authoritative school climate theory, would serve as a protective factor for students living with 1 or no parents at home. Using a statewide sample of 56,508 middle school students from 415 public schools in 1 state, results indicated that student perceptions of disciplinary structure, academic demandingness, and student support all had positive associations with student self-reported grade point average (GPA). In addition, findings showed that academic expectations and student support were more highly associated with GPA for students not living with any parent. Implications for policy and practice are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Ciguatera Fish Poisoning and Climate Change: Analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States, 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Strickland, Matthew J.; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Background: Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP). Increased severe storm frequency may create more habitat for ciguatoxic organisms. Although climate change could expand the endemic range of CFP, the relationship between CFP incidence and specific environmental conditions is unknown. Objectives: We estimated associations between monthly CFP incidence in the contiguous United States and SST and storm frequency in the Caribbean basin. Methods: We obtained information on 1,102 CFP-related calls to U.S. poison control centers during 2001–2011 from the National Poison Data System. We performed a time-series analysis using Poisson regression to relate monthly CFP call incidence to SST and tropical storms. We investigated associations across a range of plausible lag structures. Results: Results showed associations between monthly CFP calls and both warmer SSTs and increased tropical storm frequency. The SST variable with the strongest association linked current monthly CFP calls to the peak August SST of the previous year. The lag period with the strongest association for storms was 18 months. If climate change increases SST in the Caribbean 2.5–3.5°C over the coming century as projected, this model implies that CFP incidence in the United States is likely to increase 200–400%. Conclusions: Using CFP calls as a marker of CFP incidence, these results clarify associations between climate variability and CFP incidence and suggest that, all other things equal, climate change could increase the burden of CFP. These findings have implications for disease prediction, surveillance, and public health preparedness for climate change. Citation: Gingold DB, Strickland MJ, Hess JJ. 2014. Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center data in the United States, 2001–2011. Environ Health Perspect 122:580–586; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307196 PMID:24618280

Developing a Climate Change Boundary Organization: the Montana Adaptation Knowledge Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitlock, C. L.; Brooks, S.; Armstrong, T.; Bryan, B.

2017-12-01

States, like Montana, with small populations and large areas, are challenged by a need to offer timely and relevant climate-science information that addresses diverse and widely dispersed stakeholder groups. In Montana, filling the gap between science and practice has motivated the first Montana Climate Assessment (MCA), released September 2017 with a focus on climate impacts on the agriculture, water and forestry sectors. The MCA is an outcome of a science-stakeholder partnership that has identified critical climate-change information and knowledge gaps for the state through listening sessions and questionnaires. From the initial feedback, it became clear that stakeholder groups were deeply concerned about the challenges posed by rising temperatures and wanted to know how recent and projected warming will affect Montana's natural and managed resources. As part of the next phase of the MCA project, we are now creating the Montana Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (MAKE), a "boundary organization" as described by the National Academy of Sciences. MAKE moves beyond information sharing by bringing scientists and practitioners together to seek solutions related to climate-change adaptation and other pressing environmental and socio-economic concerns. Through a collaborative partnership that involves Montana universities, state and federal agencies, businesses and non-governmental organizations, MAKE is designed to communicate current research findings and support revision and expansion of state-of-the-knowledge assessments like the MCA. Stakeholder partners will provide guidance to the science community to help prioritize research directions and activities of high importance. Significant, but often technical, scientific results will be translated and delivered to stakeholder groups through a variety of print, web, and mobile products. MAKE will support an extensive online database, host an online portal, gather a network of experts in respective fields, and maintain a knowledgeable customer service staff. Boundary organizations, such as MAKE, offer a path to effectively move from science to knowledge to action in the climate change arena while at the same time engaging practitioners and managers in the development of research agendas.

Abrupt Climate Transition of Icy Worlds from Snowball to Moist or Runaway Greenhouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Ding, F.; Ramirez, R. M.; Peltier, W. R.; Hu, Y.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Ongoing and future space missions aim to identify potentially habitable planets in our Solar System and beyond. Planetary habitability is determined not only by a planet's current stellar insolation and atmospheric properties, but also by the evolutionary history of its climate. It has been suggested that icy planets and moons become habitable after their initial ice shield melts as their host stars brighten. Here we show from global climate model simulations that a habitable state is not achieved in the climatic evolution of those icy planets and moons that possess an inactive carbonate-silicate cycle and low concentrations of greenhouse gases. Examples for such planetary bodies are the icy moons Europa and Enceladus, and certain icy exoplanets orbiting G and F stars. We find that the stellar fluxes that are required to overcome a planet's initial snowball state are so large that they lead to significant water loss and preclude a habitable planet. Specifically, they exceed the moist greenhouse limit, at which water vapour accumulates at high altitudes where it can readily escape, or the runaway greenhouse limit, at which the strength of the greenhouse increases until the oceans boil away. We suggest that some icy planetary bodies may transition directly to a moist or runaway greenhouse without passing through a habitable Earth-like state.

Abrupt climate transition of icy worlds from snowball to moist or runaway greenhouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Ding, Feng; Ramirez, Ramses M.; Peltier, W. R.; Hu, Yongyun; Liu, Yonggang

2017-08-01

Ongoing and future space missions aim to identify potentially habitable planets in our Solar System and beyond. Planetary habitability is determined not only by a planet's current stellar insolation and atmospheric properties, but also by the evolutionary history of its climate. It has been suggested that icy planets and moons become habitable after their initial ice shield melts as their host stars brighten. Here we show from global climate model simulations that a habitable state is not achieved in the climatic evolution of those icy planets and moons that possess an inactive carbonate-silicate cycle and low concentrations of greenhouse gases. Examples for such planetary bodies are the icy moons Europa and Enceladus, and certain icy exoplanets orbiting G and F stars. We find that the stellar fluxes that are required to overcome a planet's initial snowball state are so large that they lead to significant water loss and preclude a habitable planet. Specifically, they exceed the moist greenhouse limit, at which water vapour accumulates at high altitudes where it can readily escape, or the runaway greenhouse limit, at which the strength of the greenhouse increases until the oceans boil away. We suggest that some icy planetary bodies may transition directly to a moist or runaway greenhouse without passing through a habitable Earth-like state.

On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Naiming; Huang, Yan; Duan, Jianping; Zhu, Congwen; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-03-01

Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of climate memory. By decomposing climate state x(t) at a certain time point t into memory part M(t) and non-memory part ɛ (t) , climate memory effects from the past 30 years on climate prediction are quantified. For variables with strong climate memory, high variance (over 20% ) in x(t) is explained by the memory part M(t), and the effects of climate memory are non-negligible for most climate variables, but the precipitation. Regarding of multi-steps climate prediction, a power law decay of the explained variance was found, indicating long-lasting climate memory effects. The explained variances by climate memory can remain to be higher than 10% for more than 10 time steps. Accordingly, past climate conditions can affect both short (monthly) and long-term (interannual, decadal, or even multidecadal) climate predictions. With the memory part M(t) precisely calculated from Fractional Integral Statistical Model, one only needs to focus on the non-memory part ɛ (t) , which is an important quantity that determines climate predictive skills.

Using Global Climate Data to Inform Long-Term Water Planning Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Water managers throughout the world are working to consider climate change in their long-term water planning processes. The best available information regarding plausible future hydrologic conditions are largely derived from global circulation models and from paleoclimate data. To date there lacks a single approach for (1) utilizing these data in water management planning tools for analysis and (2) evaluating the myriad of possible adaptation options. This talk will describe several approaches being used at RAND to incorporate global projections of climate change into local, regional, and state-wide long-term water planning. It will draw on current work with the California Department of Water Resources and other local Western water agencies, and a recently completed project with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency. Work to date suggests that climate information can be assimilated into local water planning tools to help identify robust climate adaptation water management strategies.

Narratives of dynamic lands: science education, indigenous knowledge and possible futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinty, Megan; Bang, Megan

2016-06-01

We aim to share some of our work currently focused on understanding and unearthing the multiplicities of ways the denial of culture in relation to science and knowledge construction is embedded in issues of climate change and climate change education. The issues become more troubling when we consider how effects of climate change are manifesting locally in ways that force shifts in Indigenous ways of living while simultaneously nation-states seem to think that continued or increased control of Indigenous practice is warranted. For us, taking the implications of such approaches seriously requires significant consideration of how climate education impacts Indigenous learners and whether learning western climate science is indeed part of making real change important. In our work we have focused on the ways in which settler-colonialism and the resultant racialized hierarchies permeate science education and contribute to an expectation of human entitlement to land and a notion of land permanence.

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States, 2001-2011.

PubMed

Gingold, Daniel B; Strickland, Matthew J; Hess, Jeremy J

2014-06-01

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP). Increased severe storm frequency may create more habitat for ciguatoxic organisms. Although climate change could expand the endemic range of CFP, the relationship between CFP incidence and specific environmental conditions is unknown. We estimated associations between monthly CFP incidence in the contiguous United States and SST and storm frequency in the Caribbean basin. We obtained information on 1,102 CFP-related calls to U.S. poison control centers during 2001-2011 from the National Poison Data System. We performed a time-series analysis using Poisson regression to relate monthly CFP call incidence to SST and tropical storms. We investigated associations across a range of plausible lag structures. Results showed associations between monthly CFP calls and both warmer SSTs and increased tropical storm frequency. The SST variable with the strongest association linked current monthly CFP calls to the peak August SST of the previous year. The lag period with the strongest association for storms was 18 months. If climate change increases SST in the Caribbean 2.5-3.5 °C over the coming century as projected, this model implies that CFP incidence in the United States is likely to increase 200-400%. Using CFP calls as a marker of CFP incidence, these results clarify associations between climate variability and CFP incidence and suggest that, all other things equal, climate change could increase the burden of CFP. These findings have implications for disease prediction, surveillance, and public health preparedness for climate change.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Science for Decision-Making: Water Managers and Tree- Ring Data in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J. L.; Woodhouse, C.; Lukas, J.

2008-12-01

Current climate variability, potential impacts of climate change, and limited resources in the face of growing demand are increasingly prompting water managers in the western United States to consider and use data from climate-related research in water resource planning. Much of these data are produced by stakeholder- driven science programs, such as NOAA's Regional Integrated Science Assessments (RISAs), but there have been few efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of these science-to-application efforts. Over the past several years, researchers with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) RISA have been providing tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow to water managers in Colorado and other western states, and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of these tree-ring data for water management and planning. Using in-depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we have assessed the effectiveness and outcomes of these engagements, addressing (1) the factors that have prompted water managers to seek out tree-ring data, (2) how paleoclimate data has been made relevant and accessible for water resource planning, and (3) how tree-ring data and information have been utilized by water managers and other workshop participants. We also provide an assessment of challenges and opportunities that exist in the translation of climate science for decision-making, including how tree-ring data are interpreted in the context of water planning paradigms, issues of credibility and acceptance of tree ring data, and what data needs exist in different planning environments. These findings have broader application in improving and evaluating science-policy interactions related to climate and climate change.

Predicting Summer Dryness Under a Warmer Climate: Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Eltahir, E. A.

2009-12-01

One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential alteration of local hydrologic cycles over agriculturally productive areas. As the world’s food supply continues to be taxed by its burgeoning population, a greater percentage of arable land will need to be utilized and land currently producing food must become more efficient. This study seeks to quantify the effects of climate change on soil moisture in the American Midwest. A series of 24-year numerical experiments were conducted to assess the ability of Regional Climate Model Version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3-IBIS) and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3-BATS1e) to simulate the observed hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Model results were evaluated using NASA Surface Radiation Budget, NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Research Unit Time Series 2.1, Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, and regional-scale estimations of evapotranspiration. The response of RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e to a surrogate climate change scenario, a warming of 3oC at the boundaries and doubling of CO2, was explored. Precipitation increased significantly during the spring and summer in both RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e, leading to additional runoff. In contrast, enhancement of evapotranspiration and shortwave radiation were modest. Soil moisture remained relatively unchanged in RegCM3-IBIS, while RegCM3-BATS1e exhibited some fall and winter wetting.

Ocean climate indicators: A monitoring inventory and plan for tracking climate change in the north-central California coast and ocean region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duncan, Benet; Higgason, Kelley; Suchanek, Tom; Largier, John; Stachowicz, Jay; Allen, Sarah; Bograd, Steven; Breen, R.; Gellerman, Holly; Hill, Tessa; Jahncke, Jaime; Johnson, Rebecca L.; Lonhart, Steve I.; Morgan, Steven; Wilkerson, Frances; Roletto, Jan

2013-01-01

The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic acidity, have been observed both globally and on regional scales, such as in the North-central California coast and ocean, a region that extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. Because of the high economic and ecological value of the region’s marine environment, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) and other agencies and organizations have recognized the need to evaluate and plan for climate change impacts. Climate change indicators can be developed on global, regional, and site-specific spatial scales, and they provide information about the presence and potential impacts of climate change. While indicators exist for the nation and for the state of California as a whole, no system of ocean climate indicators exist that specifically consider the unique characteristics of the California coast and ocean region. To that end, GFNMS collaborated with over 50 regional, federal, and state natural resource managers, research scientists, and other partners to develop a set of 2 ocean climate indicators specific to this region. A smaller working group of 13 regional partners developed monitoring goals, objectives, strategies, and activities for the indicators and recommended selected species for biological indicators, resulting in the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The working group considered current knowledge of ongoing monitoring, feasibility of monitoring, costs, and logistics in selecting monitoring activities and selected species.

U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Strategic Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

and Long Term, provides details on the 85 technologies in the R&D portfolio. 21 (Figure 2-1) Continuing Process The United States, in partnership with...locations may be centered near or in residential locations, and work processes and products may be more commonly communicated or delivered via digital... chemical properties, along with advanced methods to simulate processes , will stem from advances in computational technology. Current Portfolio The current

Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

PubMed

Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

2017-11-15

Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO 2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Holderness coast, eastern England: Past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkwith, A.; Limber, P. W.; Thomas, C. W.; Murray, A.; Jordan, H. M.; Ellis, M. A.

2012-12-01

The Holderness coast of eastern Yorkshire, England, is the most rapidly eroding coastline in Europe. Erosion can locally exceed 10 m in a single year and rates average 0.5 to 3 m yr-1, generally increasing from north to south. Pinned in the north by a chalk headland, the soft till coastline has a characteristic open spiral form terminated by a spit to the south. Erosion currently threatens local communities and infrastructure, including nationally important gas installations. Interventions to restrict local erosion usually result in enhanced erosion in adjacent, unprotected sections of coast, mirroring morphology seen on the large scale. We have initiated a modelling study to investigate the key controls on the form and evolution of this coastline, and its response to climate change, building on the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) developed at Duke University, NC. We have adapted the CEM to permit an ensemble of simulations to be undertaken, based upon modified offshore wave climates, initial conditions and forcing factors. The CEM follows a standard 1d approach, where the cross-shore is collapsed into a single data point, allowing the planform shoreline shape and dynamics to be simulated. The model facilitates study of a coast with variable erosion rates, and enables simulation of coastline evolution when sediment is supplied from an eroding shoreface. Additionally, the CEM is adapted to use an observed two year, offshore wave climate data set as input. Initial work focussed on reconstruction of current coastline shape from an ensemble of hypothetical early Holocene shoreface positions and past wave climates. First order reconstruction of shoreline shape was achieved using several differing initial conditions and wave climates. For the majority of successful simulations, a steady state was noted for proceeding years, where erosion proceeds at an equal rate along the length of the coast south of the headland. Together with a sensitivity analysis, the derivation of the current coastline provided initial conditions for the second phase of the work: simulating the morphological response of the Holderness coastline to possible future changes in climate over the next century. An ensemble of future possible wave climate perturbations was generated from predictions of the likely response of the North Sea to future climate change over the next century, and applied linearly to the observed wave climate as each simulation progressed. The ensemble output was compared to a baseline simulation, run for a century under current wave climate, to assess the impact of predicted future climate on coastal erosion. Although this study does not currently take into account the changes in storm frequency, rises in sea level or the anthropogenic inputs that could influence the results, the initial output indicates erosional rates over the next century are likely to be retarded for the Holderness coastline under a changing climate.

Combining Population Structure with Historic Abitoic Processes to Better Understand Species and Community Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. M.

2015-12-01

The evolution and speciation of plants is directly tied to the environment as the constrained stages of dispersal creates strong genetic differentiation among populations. This can result in differing genetic patterns between nuclear and chloroplast loci, where genes are inherited differently and dispersed via separate vectors. By developing distribution models based on genetic patterns found within a species, it is possible to begin understanding the influence of historic geomorphic and/or climatic processes on population evolution. If genetic patterns of the current range correlate with specific patterns of climate variability within the Pleistocene, it is possible that future shifts in species distribution in response to climate change can be more accurately modelled due to the historic signature that is found within inherited genes. Preliminary genetic analyses of Linanthus dichotomus, an annual herb distributed across California, suggests that the current taxonomic treatment does not accurately depict how this species is evolving. Genetic patterns of chloroplast genes suggest that populations are more correlated with biogeography than what the current nomenclature states. Additionally, chloroplast and nuclear genes show discrepancies in the dispersal across the landscape, suggesting pollinator driven gene flow overcoming seed dispersal boundaries. By comparing discrepancies between pollinator and seed induced gene flow we may be able to gain insight into historical pollinator communities within the Pleistocene. This information can then be applied to projected climate models to more accurately understand how species and/or communities will respond to a changing environment.

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

SEEPLUS: A SIMPLE ONLINE CLIMATE MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsui, Junichi

A web application for a simple climate model - SEEPLUS (a Simple climate model to Examine Emission Pathways Leading to Updated Scenarios) - has been developed. SEEPLUS consists of carbon-cycle and climate-change modules, through which it provides the information infrastructure required to perform climate-change experiments, even on a millennial-timescale. The main objective of this application is to share the latest scientific knowledge acquired from climate modeling studies among the different stakeholders involved in climate-change issues. Both the carbon-cycle and climate-change modules employ impulse response functions (IRFs) for their key processes, thereby enabling the model to integrate the outcome from an ensemble of complex climate models. The current IRF parameters and forcing manipulation are basically consistent with, or within an uncertainty range of, the understanding of certain key aspects such as the equivalent climate sensitivity and ocean CO2 uptake data documented in representative literature. The carbon-cycle module enables inverse calculation to determine the emission pathway required in order to attain a given concentration pathway, thereby providing a flexible way to compare the module with more advanced modeling studies. The module also enables analytical evaluation of its equilibrium states, thereby facilitating the long-term planning of global warming mitigation.

Land management strategies for improving water quality in biomass production under changing climate

DOE PAGES

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

2017-03-07

Here, the Corn Belt states are the largest corn-production areas in the United States because of their fertile land and ideal climate. This attribute is particularly important as the region also plays a key role in the production of bioenergy feedstock. In much of the nation, agricultural nutrients are a primary cause of water quality degradation. This study focuses on potential change in streamflow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to climate change and land management practices in the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) watershed, Iowa. Thirty-six projections from select Regional Climate Models (RCM) for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.5, 4.5,more » and 8.5 were used to develop climate change scenarios for the SFIR watershed and incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The watershed is covered primarily with annual crops (corn and soybeans). Three scenarios of land use change and conservation practices were further developed to examine their impacts on water quality under historical and modeled future climate. With cropland conversion to switchgrass, stover harvest, and best management practices (BMPs) (such as establishing riparian buffers and applying cover crops) significant reductions in nutrients were observed in the SFIR watershed under historical climate and future climate scenarios. Under historical climate, suspended sediment (SS), total nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) at the outlet point of the SFIR watershed could decrease by up to 56.7%, 32.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, compare with current land use when a portion of the cropland is converted to switchgrass and cover crop is in place. Climate change could cause an increase in 12.0% (SS), 4.7% (N), and 7.7% (P) from current land use. This increase could be mitigated through land management and practices by 53.6% (SS), 27.8 (N), and 7.0% (P). Climate change reduced crop yield. Nutrient and sediments loadings distributed heterogeneously across the watershed. Water footprint analysis further revealed changes in green water that are highly dependent on land management scenarios. The study highlights the versatile approaches in landscape management that are available to address climate change adaptation and acknowledged the complex nature of different perspectives in water sustainability. Further study involving implementing landscape design and management using long-term field to watershed water monitoring data is necessary to verify the findings and moving towards watershed specific regional programs for climate adaptation.« less

Land management strategies for improving water quality in biomass production under changing climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

Here, the Corn Belt states are the largest corn-production areas in the United States because of their fertile land and ideal climate. This attribute is particularly important as the region also plays a key role in the production of bioenergy feedstock. In much of the nation, agricultural nutrients are a primary cause of water quality degradation. This study focuses on potential change in streamflow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to climate change and land management practices in the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) watershed, Iowa. Thirty-six projections from select Regional Climate Models (RCM) for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.5, 4.5,more » and 8.5 were used to develop climate change scenarios for the SFIR watershed and incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The watershed is covered primarily with annual crops (corn and soybeans). Three scenarios of land use change and conservation practices were further developed to examine their impacts on water quality under historical and modeled future climate. With cropland conversion to switchgrass, stover harvest, and best management practices (BMPs) (such as establishing riparian buffers and applying cover crops) significant reductions in nutrients were observed in the SFIR watershed under historical climate and future climate scenarios. Under historical climate, suspended sediment (SS), total nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) at the outlet point of the SFIR watershed could decrease by up to 56.7%, 32.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, compare with current land use when a portion of the cropland is converted to switchgrass and cover crop is in place. Climate change could cause an increase in 12.0% (SS), 4.7% (N), and 7.7% (P) from current land use. This increase could be mitigated through land management and practices by 53.6% (SS), 27.8 (N), and 7.0% (P). Climate change reduced crop yield. Nutrient and sediments loadings distributed heterogeneously across the watershed. Water footprint analysis further revealed changes in green water that are highly dependent on land management scenarios. The study highlights the versatile approaches in landscape management that are available to address climate change adaptation and acknowledged the complex nature of different perspectives in water sustainability. Further study involving implementing landscape design and management using long-term field to watershed water monitoring data is necessary to verify the findings and moving towards watershed specific regional programs for climate adaptation.« less

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Dynamics of carbon, water and energy cycles in a heterogeneous landscape and a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, A.; Law, B. E.; Still, C. J.; Hilker, T.

2016-12-01

The combined effects of changes in land-use and land cover (LULC) and climate on carbon and water cycling need to be assessed at regional scales. LULC changes over time have many drivers such as expanding urban areas, exploration of new agricultural areas due to overused natural resources of current agricultural areas (e.g. degraded soil), economical reasons, or policy changes that encourage the use of alternative energy resources. Our study assesses the effects of conversion of semi-arid sagebrush and agricultural crops to bioenergy production on carbon, water and energy cycling, and resulting heating or cooling effects. Our project focusses on Oregon, where agricultural crops, significant forest area, and urban expansion are coupled with a strong spatial climate gradient that allows us to examine influences on carbon sequestration by the terrestrial biosphere. Our inverse modeling results showed that the prior fluxes modelled with CLM4.5 underestimated NEE in the highly productive western Douglas fir forests by more than 50%. Based on the results of our Bayesian inversion, we optimized ecosystem fluxes and changed CLM model parameters accordingly. By integrating remote sensing LULC data, eddy covariance data from flux sites, tall tower CO2 observations, biomass estimates from field samples, and CLM4.5, we predict current and future statewide carbon sequestration with unprecedented accuracy. Using inventories and tower flux data, we determined the effect of conversion of hay and grass seed cropland (323,200 ha) to hybrid poplar and found the state NEP increased from 4 TgCO2 per year to 13 TgCO2 per year for that area. The last coal power plant in the state (Boardman) is in the process of switching from coal combustion to biofuel burning to meet the state's goal for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Our results show that the 7816 tons of biomass per day to keep the 518 MW power plant running at base load would amount to 35,000 hectares of hybrid poplar per year under current climate conditions. The improved CLM4.5 model will be used to evaluate the impacts of this land use change on the net ecosystem carbon balance under future climate conditions.

Climate Change Education in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, A.; Fletcher, C. H.; Sachs, J. P.

2013-12-01

The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai';i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). These Pacific Islands spread across 4.9 million square miles and include diverse indigenous cultures and languages. Many USAPI students live considerably below the poverty line. The Pacific Island region is projected to experience some of the most profound negative impacts considerably sooner than other regions. Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and honor indigenous cultures. Students and citizens within the region will have the knowledge and skills to advance their and our understanding of climate change, and to adapt to its impacts. The PCEP Strategic Plan incorporates a range of interconnected strategic goals grouped into four priority education areas: Climate Education Framework --Implement a next-generation Climate Education Framework that focuses on the content and skills necessary for understanding the science of global and Pacific island climates, as well as the adaptation to climate impacts in the USAPI region. Indigenous Knowledge and Practices --Gather appropriate local indigenous knowledge based on the cultural stories and traditional practices related to environmental stewardship, climate, and local climate adaptation strategies. Learning and Teaching--Enhance conditions for learning about climate change in K-14 classrooms with the CEF through college-based, credentialed climate education programs; professional learning opportunities for teachers; and increased teacher implementation of locally-relevant climate science and adaptation curricula. Community-School Partnership --Connect schools (K-14) and community climate adaptation partners through locally relevant projects to implement effective and sustainable climate education. Explore and build awareness of resources that the community, colleges, and K-12 schools have to offer each other, and initiate partnering activities to support project-based learning activities. Current PCEP activities include: revising state and national science education standards to better incorporate climate change; contextualizing curricula to wide variety of climate and education contexts; gathering local indigenous knowledge and practices related to climate education and adaptation; providing professional development appropriate to these very diverse locations; supporting local professional learning communities in each international location; and developing a regional climate education certificate program. A key PCEP challenge is to maintain a coherent regional identity while contextualizing education activities to very diverse locations. PCEP staff have a high priority to learn, share and communicate across these locations, and to broadly benefit from lessons learned in each of the locations. Another strong connector is the overlap in climate changes, impacts and adaptation strategies across this international region.

A CLIMATE-RESPONSIVE ADAPTIVE CONTROL FOR A COMBINATION PASSIVE SOLAR SHADING AND NATURAL VENTILATION

EPA Science Inventory

Currently, nations around the globe are facing striking concerns regarding energy consumption. In the United States, we face increasing demands that will cause increasing fuel prices thus ultimately higher-energy cost. The future could be eased by reduce energy consumption ...

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pithan, Felix; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Zappa, Giuseppe; Sandu, Irina

2016-07-01

State-of-the art climate models generally struggle to represent important features of the large-scale circulation. Common model deficiencies include an equatorward bias in the location of the midlatitude westerlies and an overly zonal orientation of the North Atlantic storm track. Orography is known to strongly affect the atmospheric circulation and is notoriously difficult to represent in coarse-resolution climate models. Yet how the representation of orography affects circulation biases in current climate models is not understood. Here we show that the effects of switching off the parameterization of drag from low-level orographic blocking in one climate model resemble the biases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble: An overly zonal wintertime North Atlantic storm track and less European blocking events, and an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemispheric jet and increase in the Southern Annular Mode time scale. This suggests that typical circulation biases in coarse-resolution climate models may be alleviated by improved parameterizations of low-level drag.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

PubMed

West, Amanda M; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

2015-01-01

National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

Using High-Resolution Future Climate Scenarios to Forecast Bromus tectorum Invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park

PubMed Central

West, Amanda M.; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

2015-01-01

National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum. PMID:25695255

Putting the Weather Back Into Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Stainforth, David A.

2014-05-01

The literature contains a variety of definitions of climate, and the emphasis in these definitions has changed over time. Defining climate as a mean value is, of course, both limiting and misleading; definitions of climate based on averages have been deprecated as far back as 1931 [1]. In the context of current efforts to produce climate predictions for use in climate adaptation, it is timely to consider how well various definitions of climate serve the research for applications community. From a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective it is common to associate climate with a system's natural measure (or "attractor" if such an object exists). Such a definition is not easily applied to physical systems where we have limited observations over a restricted period of time; the duration of 30 years is often mentioned today and the origin of this period is discussed. Given a dynamic system in which parameters are evolving in time, the view of climate as a natural measure becomes problematic as, by definition, there may be no attractor per se. Attractors defined for particular parameter values cannot be expected to have any association with the probability of states under transient changes in the values of that parameter. Alternatively, distributions may be determined which reflect the transient situation, based on (rather broad) additional assumptions regarding the state of the system at some point in the past (say, an ice age planet vs an interglacial planet). Such distributions reflect many of the properties one would hope to be represented in a generalised definition of the system's climate. Here we trace how definitions of climate have changed over time and highlight a number of properties of definitions of climate which would facilitate common use across researchers, from observers to theoreticians, from climate modellers to mathematicians. We show while periodic changes in parameter values (such as those found in an annual cycle or a diurnal cycle) are easily incorporated within the traditional nonlinear dynamical systems view, non-periodic or secular changes (such as those due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations) yield an open challenge. We argue the need both for clarifying and for clearly meeting the open challenges of defining climate in relation to the state of an evolving system, and suggest a path forward. [1] Miller, A.A., 1931: Climatology. First Ed. Methuen.

Developing Models for Predictive Climate Science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drake, John B; Jones, Philip W

2007-01-01

The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration designed to construct cutting-edge climate science simulation models for a broad research community. Predictive climate simulations are currently being prepared for the petascale computers of the near future. Modeling capabilities are continuously being improved in order to provide better answers to critical questions about Earth's climate. Climate change and its implications are front page news in today's world. Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should more resources be devoted to preparing for an increase in the frequency of strongmore » tropical storms and hurricanes like Katrina? Will coastal cities be flooded due to a rise in sea level? The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which archives all weather data for the nation, reports that global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and that the rate of increase is three times greater since 1976. Will temperatures continue to climb at this rate, will they decline again, or will the rate of increase become even steeper? To address such a flurry of questions, scientists must adopt a systematic approach and develop a predictive framework. With responsibility for advising on energy and technology strategies, the DOE is dedicated to advancing climate research in order to elucidate the causes of climate change, including the role of carbon loading from fossil fuel use. Thus, climate science--which by nature involves advanced computing technology and methods--has been the focus of a number of DOE's SciDAC research projects. Dr. John Drake (ORNL) and Dr. Philip Jones (LANL) served as principal investigators on the SciDAC project, 'Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers.' The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a fully-coupled global system that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. The collaborative SciDAC team--including over a dozen researchers at institutions around the country--developed, validated, documented, and optimized the performance of CCSM using the latest software engineering approaches, computational technology, and scientific knowledge. Many of the factors that must be accounted for in a comprehensive model of the climate system are illustrated in figure 1.« less

CAN-DOO: The Climate Action Network through Direct Observations and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taubman, B.; Sherman, J. P.; Perry, L. B.; Markham, J.; Kelly, G.

2011-12-01

The urgency of climate change demands a greater understanding of our climate system, not only by the leaders of today, but by the scientists, policy makers, and citizens of tomorrow. Unfortunately, a large segment of the population currently possesses inadequate knowledge of climate science. In direct response to a need for greater scientific literacy with respect to climate science, researchers from Appalachian State University's Appalachian Atmospheric Interdisciplinary Research (AppalAIR) group, with support from NASA, have developed CAN-DOO: the Climate Action Network through Direct Observations and Outreach. CAN-DOO addresses climate science literacy by 1) Developing the infrastructure for sustaining and expanding public outreach through long-term climate measurements capable of complementing existing NASA measurements, 2) Enhancing public awareness of climate science and NASA's role in advancing our understanding of the Earth System, and 3) Introducing Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics principles to homeschooled, public school, and Appalachian State University students through applied climate science activities. Project partners include the Grandfather Mountain Stewardship Foundation, Pisgah Astronomical Research Institute, and local elementary schools. In partnership with Grandfather Mountain, climate science awareness is promoted through citizen science activities, interactive public displays, and staff training. CAN-DOO engages students by involving them in the entire scientific investigative process as applied to climate science. We introduce local elementary and middle school students, homeschooled students throughout North Carolina, and undergraduate students in a new Global Climate Change course and select other courses at Appalachian State University to instrument assembly, measurement techniques, data collection, hypothesis testing, and drawing conclusions. Results are placed in the proper context via comparisons with other student data products, local research-grade measurements, and NASA measurements. Several educational modules have been developed that address specific topics in climate science. The modules are scalable and have been successfully implemented at levels ranging from 2nd grade through first-year graduate as well as with citizen science groups. They also can be applied in user-desired segments to a variety of Earth Science units. In this paper, we will introduce the project activities and present results from the first year of observations and outreach, with a special emphasis on two of the developed modules, the surface energy balance and aerosol optical depth module.

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

PubMed

Schwalm, Donelle; Epps, Clinton W; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Monahan, William B; Castillo, Jessica A; Ray, Chris; Jeffress, Mackenzie R

2016-04-01

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NOAA's Satellite Climate Data Records: The Research to Operations Process and Current State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privette, J. L.; Bates, J. J.; Kearns, E. J.; NOAA's Climate Data Record Program

2011-12-01

In support of NOAA's mandate to provide climate products and services to the Nation, the National Climatic Data Center initiated the satellite Climate Data Record (CDR) Program. The Program develops and sustains climate information products derived from satellite data that NOAA has collected over the past 30+ years. These are the longest sets of continuous global measurements in existence. Data from other satellite programs, including those in NASA, the Department of Defense, and foreign space agencies, are also used. NOAA is now applying advanced analysis techniques to these historic data. This process is unraveling underlying climate trend and variability information and returning new value from the data. However, the transition of complex data processing chains, voluminous data products and documentation into an systematic, configuration controlled context involves many challenges. In this presentation, we focus on the Program's process for research-to-operations transition and the evolving systems designed to ensure transparency, security, economy and authoritative value. The Program has adopted a two-phase process defined by an Initial Operational Capability (IOC) and a Full Operational Capability (FOC). The principles and procedures for IOC are described, as well as the process for moving CDRs from IOC to FOC. Finally, we will describe the state of the CDRs in all phases the Program, with an emphasis on the seven community-developed CDRs transitioned to NOAA in 2011. Details on CDR access and distribution will be provided.

Technical Note: Linking climate change and downed woody debris decomposition across forests of the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Matthew B.; Woodall, Christopher W.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Forest carbon (C) is stored through photosynthesis and released via decomposition and combustion. Relative to C fixation in biomass, much less is known about C depletion through decomposition of woody debris, particularly under a changing climate. It is assumed that the increased temperatures and longer growing seasons associated with projected climate change will increase the decomposition rates (i.e., more rapid C cycling) of downed woody debris (DWD); however, the magnitude of this increase has not been previously addressed. Using DWD measurements collected from a national forest inventory of the eastern United States, we show that the residence time of DWD may decrease (i.e., more rapid decomposition) by as much as 13% over the next 200 years, depending on various future climate change scenarios and forest types. Although existing dynamic global vegetation models account for the decomposition process, they typically do not include the effect of a changing climate on DWD decomposition rates. We expect that an increased understanding of decomposition rates, as presented in this current work, will be needed to adequately quantify the fate of woody detritus in future forests. Furthermore, we hope these results will lead to improved models that incorporate climate change scenarios for depicting future dead wood dynamics in addition to a traditional emphasis on live-tree demographics.

Climate impact and adaptation of husbandry on the Mongolian plateau: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, L.; Cui, X.

2015-12-01

There has been an evolution in the treatment of regional aspects of climate and land use change: from a patchwork of case examples towards a more systematic coverage of regional issues at continental and sub-continental scales in the latest Intergovernmental panel on climate change, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The region of Inner Asia has long been characterised by important cultural, economic, and ecological ties that transcend international borders, including a common steppe environment, a long history of mobile pastoralism, as well as comparable experiences of socialist and postsocialist transformation. In this research, we focused on the study of the Mongolian Plateau located in eastern Inner Asia, since climate change has already had large impacts on grassland and local households. We explored how the vegetation and animal husbandry responses to climate change in comparison between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Our central question then was: how are people in different parts of Inner Mongolia and the Republic of Mongolia are experiencing and responding to climate change across a common grassland environment as a result of the differing social, economic, political, and ecological conditions within each particular state? We believe that comparative and interdisciplinary investigation offers the best prospect for the evaluation of the differing trajectories currently being followed by each Inner Asian state, and the anticipation of the likely effects on the societies and environment of the region in the future.

Workshop on Satellite and In situ Observations for Climate Prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Acker, J.G.; Busalacchi, A.

1995-02-01

Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

Workshop on Satellite and In situ Observations for Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acker, James G.; Busalacchi, Antonio

1995-01-01

Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben; Long, Jane C. S.

Any well-informed future decision on whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering requires balancing the impacts (both intended and unintended) of intervening in the climate against the impacts of not doing so. In spite of the tremendous progress in the last decade, the current state of knowledge remains insufficient to support an assessment of this balance, even for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG), arguably the best understood (practical) geoengineering method. We then articulate key unknowns associated with SAG, including both climate-science and design questions, as an essential step toward developing a future strategic research program that could address outstanding uncertainties.

Ecosystem management can mitigate vegetation shifts induced by climate change in African savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheiter, Simon; Savadogo, Patrice

2017-04-01

The welfare of people in the tropics and sub-tropics strongly depends on goods and services that ecosystems supply. Flows of these ecosystem services are strongly influenced by interactions between climate change and land use. A prominent example are savannas, covering approximately 20% of the Earth's land surface. Key ecosystem services in these areas are fuel wood for cooking and heating, food production and livestock. Changes in the structure and dynamics of savanna vegetation may strongly influence local people's living conditions, as well as the climate system and biogeochemical cycles. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore interactive effects of climate and land use on the vegetation structure, distribution and carbon cycling of African savannas under current and future conditions. More specifically, we simulate long term impacts of fire management, grazing and fuel wood harvesting. The model projects that under future climate without human land use impacts, large savanna areas would shift towards more wood dominated vegetation due to CO2 fertilization effects and changes in water use efficiency. However, land use activities can mitigate climate change impacts on vegetation to maintain desired ecosystem states that ensure fluxes of important ecosystem services. We then use optimization algorithms to identify sustainable land use strategies that maximize the utility of people managing savannas while preserving a stable vegetation state. Our results highlight that the development of land use policy for tropical and sub-tropical areas needs to account for climate change impacts on vegetation.

Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

2017-12-01

Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2016-09-01

Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

Emerging climate-driven disturbance processes: widespread mortality associated with snow-to-rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate-threatened conifer.

PubMed

Buma, Brian; Hennon, Paul E; Harrington, Constance A; Popkin, Jamie R; Krapek, John; Lamb, Melinda S; Oakes, Lauren E; Saunders, Sari; Zeglen, Stefan

2017-07-01

Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow-rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post-Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high-resolution range map of this climate-sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow-cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow-rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow-rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (<-2 °C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1-9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

Influence of shelterbelts on organic matter of chernozems in the light of global climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Achieving the ambitious cellulosic biofuel production goals currently in place in the United States will require a dramatic increase in cellulosic feedstock supply. One strategy to meet this need is to utilize perennial species including short-rotation woody species on marginal agricultural lands. F...

Elevated CO2 compensates for water stress in northern red oak

Treesearch

Patricia T. Tomlinson; Paul D. Anderson

1996-01-01

Global climate change models predict decreased rainfall in association with elevated CO2 in the western Lakes States region. Currently, the western edge of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) distribution coincides with the most xeric conditions of its ecological range. Decreased rainfall and water availability could alter...

Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutowski, William J.

This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASMmore » can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes in the freshwater flux between arctic climate system components resulting from decadal changes in land and sea ice, seasonal snow, vegetation, and ocean circulation. - Changing energetics due to decadal changes in ice mass, vegetation, and air-sea interactions. - The role of small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes that influence decadal variability. This research has been addressing modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change. RASM can facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts.« less

Coastal Climate Change Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation in the Natural and Built Environments: Progress of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, A.; Herman, B.; Vernaza-Hernández, V.; Ryan, J. G.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.

2011-12-01

The Coastal Area Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership, funded by the National Science Foundation, seeks to develop new ways to educate citizens about global climate change. The core themes are sea level rise and impacts of climate change in the southeastern United States and the Caribbean Sea. CACCE focuses on helping partners, educators, students, and the general public gain a fundamental and working understanding of the interrelation among the natural environment, built environment, and social aspects in the context of climate change in coastal regions. To this end, CACCE's objectives reported here include: 1) defining the current state of awareness, perceptions, and literacy about the impacts of climate change; and 2) testing a model of transdisciplinary research and learning as a means of training a new generation of climate professionals. Objective one is met in part by CACCE survey efforts that reveal Florida and Puerto Rico secondary science teachers hold many non-scientific views about climate change and climate change science and provide inadequate instruction about climate change. Associated with objective two are five Multiple Outcome Interdisciplinary Research and Learning (MOIRL) pilot projects underway in schools in Florida and Puerto Rico. In the CACCE Partnership the stakeholders include: students (K-16 and graduate); teachers and education researchers; informal science educators; scientists and engineers; business and industry; policy makers; and community members. CACCE combines interdisciplinary research with action research and community-based participatory research in a way that is best described as "transdisciplinary". Learning occurs in all spheres of interactions among stakeholders as they engage in scientific, educational, community and business activities through their legitimate peripheral participation in research communities of practice. We will describe the process of seeking and building partnerships, and call for a dialogue with groups pursuing climate and climate change education.

Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia; Kusler, Jon

2000-01-01

Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

Managing Community Resilience to Climate Extremes, Rapid Unsustainable Urbanization, Emergencies of Scarcity, and Biodiversity Crises by Use of a Disaster Risk Reduction Bank.

PubMed

Canyon, Deon V; Burkle, Frederick M; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

Earth's climate is changing and national and international decision-makers are recognizing that global health security requires urgent attention and a significant investment to protect the future. In most locations, current data are inadequate to conduct a full assessment of the direct and indirect health impacts of climate change. All states require this information to evaluate community-level resilience to climate extremes and climate change. A model that is being used successfully in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand is recommended to generate rapid information to assist decision-makers in the event of a disaster. The model overcomes barriers to success inherent in the traditional ''top-down'' approach to managing crises and recognizes the capacity of capable citizens and community organizers to facilitate response and recovery if provided the opportunity and resources. Local information is a prerequisite for strategic and tactical statewide planning. Time and resources are required to analyze risks within each community and what is required to prevent (mitigate), prepare, respond, recover (rehabilitate), anticipate, and assess any threatening events. Specific requirements at all levels from state to community must emphasize community roles by focusing on how best to maintain, respond, and recover public health protections and the infrastructure necessary for health security.

Observational needs for estimating Alaskan soil carbon stocks under current and future climate

DOE PAGES

Vitharana, U. W. A.; Mishra, U.; Jastrow, J. D.; ...

2017-01-24

Representing land surface spatial heterogeneity when designing observation networks is a critical scientific challenge. Here we present a geospatial approach that utilizes the multivariate spatial heterogeneity of soil-forming factors—namely, climate, topography, land cover types, and surficial geology—to identify observation sites to improve soil organic carbon (SOC) stock estimates across the State of Alaska, USA. Standard deviations in existing SOC samples indicated that 657, 870, and 906 randomly distributed pedons would be required to quantify the average SOC stocks for 0–1 m, 0–2 m, and whole-profile depths, respectively, at a confidence interval of 5 kg C m -2. Using the spatialmore » correlation range of existing SOC samples, we identified that 309, 446, and 484 new observation sites are needed to estimate current SOC stocks to 1 m, 2 m, and whole-profile depths, respectively. We also investigated whether the identified sites might change under future climate by using eight decadal (2020–2099) projections of precipitation, temperature, and length of growing season for three representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These analyses determined that 12 to 41 additional sites (906 + 12 to 41; depending upon the emission scenarios) would be needed to capture the impact of future climate on Alaskan whole-profile SOC stocks by 2100. The identified observation sites represent spatially distributed locations across Alaska that captures the multivariate heterogeneity of soil-forming factors under current and future climatic conditions. This information is needed for designing monitoring networks and benchmarking of Earth system model results.« less

Observational needs for estimating Alaskan soil carbon stocks under current and future climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vitharana, U. W. A.; Mishra, U.; Jastrow, J. D.

Representing land surface spatial heterogeneity when designing observation networks is a critical scientific challenge. Here we present a geospatial approach that utilizes the multivariate spatial heterogeneity of soil-forming factors—namely, climate, topography, land cover types, and surficial geology—to identify observation sites to improve soil organic carbon (SOC) stock estimates across the State of Alaska, USA. Standard deviations in existing SOC samples indicated that 657, 870, and 906 randomly distributed pedons would be required to quantify the average SOC stocks for 0–1 m, 0–2 m, and whole-profile depths, respectively, at a confidence interval of 5 kg C m -2. Using the spatialmore » correlation range of existing SOC samples, we identified that 309, 446, and 484 new observation sites are needed to estimate current SOC stocks to 1 m, 2 m, and whole-profile depths, respectively. We also investigated whether the identified sites might change under future climate by using eight decadal (2020–2099) projections of precipitation, temperature, and length of growing season for three representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These analyses determined that 12 to 41 additional sites (906 + 12 to 41; depending upon the emission scenarios) would be needed to capture the impact of future climate on Alaskan whole-profile SOC stocks by 2100. The identified observation sites represent spatially distributed locations across Alaska that captures the multivariate heterogeneity of soil-forming factors under current and future climatic conditions. This information is needed for designing monitoring networks and benchmarking of Earth system model results.« less

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center presents Enhancing Standards Based Science Curriculum through NASA Content Relevancy: A Model for Sustainable Teaching-Research Integration Dr. Robert Gabrys, Raquel Marshall, Dr. Evelina Felicite-Maurice, Erin McKinley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, R. H.; Gabrys, R.

2016-12-01

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has developed a systemic educator professional development model for the integration of NASA climate change resources into the K-12 classroom. The desired outcome of this model is to prepare teachers in STEM disciplines to be globally engaged and knowledgeable of current climate change research and its potential for content relevancy alignment to standard-based curriculum. The application and mapping of the model is based on the state education needs assessment, alignment to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), and implementation framework developed by the consortium of district superintendents and their science supervisors. In this presentation, we will demonstrate best practices for extending the concept of inquiry-based and project-based learning through the integration of current NASA climate change research into curriculum unit lessons. This model includes a significant teacher development component focused on capacity development for teacher instruction and pedagogy aimed at aligning NASA climate change research to related NGSS student performance expectations and subsequent Crosscutting Concepts, Science and Engineering Practices, and Disciplinary Core Ideas, a need that was presented by the district steering committee as critical for ensuring sustainability and high-impact in the classroom. This model offers a collaborative and inclusive learning community that connects classroom teachers to NASA climate change researchers via an ongoing consultant/mentoring approach. As a result of the first year of implementation of this model, Maryland teachers are implementing NGSS unit lessons that guide students in open-ended research based on current NASA climate change research.

The Current Status and Future of GNSS-Meteorology in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J.; Guerova, G.; Dousa, J.; Dick, G.; Haan, de, S.; Pottiaux, E.; Bock, O.; Pacione, R.

2017-12-01

GNSS is a well established atmospheric observing system which can accurately sense water vapour, the most abundant greenhouse gas, accounting for 60-70% of atmospheric warming. Water vapour observations are currently under-sampled in operational meteorology and obtaining and exploiting additional high-quality humidity observations is essential to improve severe weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Inconsistencies introduced into long-term time series from improved GNSS processing algorithms make climate trend analysis challenging. Ongoing re-processing efforts using state-of-the-art models are underway which will provide consistent time series' of tropospheric data, using 15+ years of GNSS observations and from over 600 stations worldwide. These datasets will enable validation of systematic biases from a range of instrumentation, improve the knowledge of climatic trends of atmospheric water vapour, and will potentially be of great benefit to global and regional NWP reanalyses and climate model simulations (e.g. IPCC AR5) COST Action ES1206 is a 4-year project, running from 2013 to 2017, which has coordinated new and improved capabilities from concurrent developments in GNSS, meteorological and climate communities. For the first time, the synergy of multi-GNSS constellations has been used to develop new, more advanced tropospheric products, exploiting the full potential of multi-GNSS on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales - from real-time products monitoring and forecasting severe weather, to the highest quality post-processed products suitable for climate research. The Action has also promoted the use of meteorological data as an input to real-time GNSS positioning, navigation, and timing services and has stimulated knowledge and data transfer throughout Europe and beyond. This presentation will give an overview of COST Action ES1206 plus an overview of ground-based GNSS-meteorology in Europe in general, including current status and future opportunities.

Food Crops Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

2009-12-01

Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

Recent changes in ecologically-relevant streamflows in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Knouft, J.; Robeson, S. M.

2017-12-01

The streamflow regime is a primary regulator of the composition and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Growth, behavior, and/or reproduction of most freshwater organisms are influenced in some way by the amount of water, including high and low flows, and seasonal fluctuations in water availability in a particular habitat. This work examines trends in ecologically-relevant measures of streamflows from 1980-2015 for over 3,000 streamflow gauges located throughout Canada and United States. Specifically, we examine trends in water year mean flow and variability, as well as trends in high (95th and 99th percentile), low (1st and 5th percentile), and 7- and 3-day maximum and minimum streamflows. The results indicate a clear regional delineation of significant increases of ecologically-relevant streamflows in the northern Central Plains/south-central Canada, upper Midwest (except Michigan and Wisconsin) and northeastern United States/southeastern Canada, while significant decreases are found throughout the southeastern and southwestern United States. The regional agreement between streamflow trends in regulated and unregulated watersheds indicate a widespread climatic influence that is not masked by human alteration of streamflows. We explore the degree to which climate factors explain both interannual variability and observed trends in streamflow to better elucidate the role of top-down climate drivers versus bottom-up land surface drivers on recent trends in ecologically-relevant streamflow. We also explore how these changes in streamflow are affecting water quality such as water temperature and sediment concentration. This type of analysis will aid in highlighting streamflow regions in the United States that are currently sensitive to changes in climate, but may also aid in understanding which regions may be sensitive to future climatic changes.

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Loh, Rhonda; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan; McDaniel, Sierra; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-01-01

Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.

Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

PubMed

Sieck, Mungla; Ibisch, Pierre L; Moloney, Kirk A; Jeltsch, Florian

2011-05-03

Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Evolving Views on a Dynamic Greenhouse Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollis, Chris; Huber, Matthew

2009-06-01

Climatic and Biotic Events of the Paleogene (CBEP 2009) Conference; Wellington, New Zealand, 12-15 January 2009; The Paleogene (65-24 million years ago) was a dynamic period in Earth's history in which major mammal groups became established and diversified, rapid and repeated extreme global warming events occurred, and climate began its stuttering progression from a greenhouse to an icehouse climate state. With atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the range projected to occur over the next several centuries (>1000 parts per million), the Paleogene is also a window into our future (see J. C. Zachos et al., Nature, 451, 279-283, 2008). Long-standing interest in understanding the causes and consequences of global change in the Paleogene and the current timeliness of greenhouse climate research explain why conferences are periodically devoted to the climatic and biotic events of the Paleogene. The 2009 conference, held in New Zealand, attracted 130 participants from 20 countries. Presentations demonstrated substantial progress in new climate proxy development, new multiproxy approaches, and closer integration of paleoclimate records with climate models, consolidating around three main issues.

Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Guyla I.; Susskind, Joel

2007-01-01

Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much further into the future.

Influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Alan I.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Hevesi, Joseph A.

1993-01-01

Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 8O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface (250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded Tuff Members, do not appear to act as capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop.

Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region

PubMed Central

Johnstone, James A.; Dawson, Todd E.

2010-01-01

Biogeographical, physiological, and paleoecological evidence suggests that the coast redwood [Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl.] is closely associated with the presence of summer marine fog along the Pacific coast of California. Here we present a novel record of summer fog frequency in the coast redwood region upon the basis of direct hourly measurements of cloud ceiling heights from 1951 to 2008. Our analysis shows that coastal summer fog frequency is a remarkably integrative measure of United States Pacific coastal climate, with strong statistical connections to the wind-driven upwelling system of the California Current and the broad ocean temperature pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By using a long-term index of daily maximum land temperatures, we infer a 33% reduction in fog frequency since the early 20th century. We present tree physiological data suggesting that coast redwood and other ecosystems along the United States west coast may be increasingly drought stressed under a summer climate of reduced fog frequency and greater evaporative demand. PMID:20160112

Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley

2017-10-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Results show that by the middle of the twenty-first century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region.

PubMed

Johnstone, James A; Dawson, Todd E

2010-03-09

Biogeographical, physiological, and paleoecological evidence suggests that the coast redwood [Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl.] is closely associated with the presence of summer marine fog along the Pacific coast of California. Here we present a novel record of summer fog frequency in the coast redwood region upon the basis of direct hourly measurements of cloud ceiling heights from 1951 to 2008. Our analysis shows that coastal summer fog frequency is a remarkably integrative measure of United States Pacific coastal climate, with strong statistical connections to the wind-driven upwelling system of the California Current and the broad ocean temperature pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By using a long-term index of daily maximum land temperatures, we infer a 33% reduction in fog frequency since the early 20th century. We present tree physiological data suggesting that coast redwood and other ecosystems along the United States west coast may be increasingly drought stressed under a summer climate of reduced fog frequency and greater evaporative demand.

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Review: groundwater in Alaska (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Callegary, J.B.; Kikuchi, C.P.; Koch, Joshua C.; Lilly, M.R.; Leake, S.A.

2013-01-01

Groundwater in the US state of Alaska is critical to both humans and ecosystems. Interactions among physiography, ecology, geology, and current and past climate have largely determined the location and properties of aquifers as well as the timing and magnitude of fluxes to, from, and within the groundwater system. The climate ranges from maritime in the southern portion of the state to continental in the Interior, and arctic on the North Slope. During the Quaternary period, topography and rock type have combined with glacial and periglacial processes to develop the unconsolidated alluvial aquifers of Alaska and have resulted in highly heterogeneous hydrofacies. In addition, the long persistence of frozen ground, whether seasonal or permanent, greatly affects the distribution of aquifer recharge and discharge. Because of high runoff, a high proportion of groundwater use, and highly variable permeability controlled in part by permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, understanding groundwater/surface-water interactions and the effects of climate change is critical for understanding groundwater availability and the movement of natural and anthropogenic contaminants.

Organizational climate and culture: Reflections on the history of the constructs in the Journal of Applied Psychology.

PubMed

Schneider, Benjamin; González-Romá, Vicente; Ostroff, Cheri; West, Michael A

2017-03-01

We review the literature on organizational climate and culture paying specific attention to articles published in the Journal of Applied Psychology (JAP) since its first volume in 1917. The article traces the history of the 2 constructs though JAP has been far more important for climate than culture research. We distinguish 4 main periods: the pre-1971 era, with pioneering work on exploring conceptualization and operationalizations of the climate construct; the 1971-1985 era, with foundational work on aggregation issues, outcome-focused climates (on safety and service) and early writings on culture; the 1986-1999 era, characterized by solidification of a focused climate approach to understanding organizational processes (justice, discrimination) and outcomes (safety, service) and the beginnings of survey approaches to culture; and the 2000-2014 era, characterized by multilevel work on climate, climate strength, demonstrated validity for a climate approach to outcomes and processes, and the relationship between leadership and climate and culture. We summarize and comment on the major theory and research achievements in each period, showing trends observed in the literature and how JAP has contributed greatly to moving research on these constructs, especially climate, forward. We also recommend directions for future research given the current state of knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Tourism climatology: evaluating environmental information for decision making and business planning in the recreation and tourism sector.

PubMed

de Freitas, C R

2003-09-01

This work grew from initiatives of the International Society of Biometeorology's Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation (ISBCCTR). The ISBCCTR was formed during the 15th Congress of the ISB held in November 1999 in Sydney, Australia. The aim of ISBCCTR is to promote research in tourism climatology. The first formal meeting of the Commission took place at the Meliton Resort, Halkidiki, Greece, 5-10 October 2001. The aims were to (1) bring together a selection of scientists and tourism experts to review the current state of knowledge of tourism climatology and (2) explore areas and priorities for future work and the role of the Commission in this. The Workshop highlighted the fact that, although climate is widely recognised as vitally important to tourism, relatively little is known about its effects. Even less is known about the economic impact or significance of climate on commercial prospects for tourism. Important research themes that warrant attention were identified. Among these was the need for a tourism climate index (or indices) that integrates all facets of climate, uses standard data and is objectively tested and verified. Work is also required on developing a better understanding of what climate-related information is required by both tourists and the tourism industry, exploring the distinction between the impact of climate on tourists and the impact on the tourism industry, setting a standard approach to tourism climate assessment, assessing the role of weather forecasts and long-term expectations of climate on choices made by tourists, the risks to tourism caused by extreme atmospheric events, what climate-related criteria people use to make decisions about tourism and recreational choices, how products giving information about weather and climate are currently used by the recreation and tourism industry and what are the existing and future requirements for this climate information.

Emotional Intelligence, Motivational Climate and Levels of Anxiety in Athletes from Different Categories of Sports: Analysis through Structural Equations.

PubMed

Castro-Sánchez, Manuel; Zurita-Ortega, Félix; Chacón-Cuberos, Ramón; López-Gutiérrez, Carlos Javier; Zafra-Santos, Edson

2018-05-01

(1) Background: Psychological factors can strongly affect the athletes’ performance. Therefore, currently the role of the sports psychologist is particularly relevant, being in charge of training the athlete’s psychological factors. This study aims at analysing the connections between motivational climate in sport, anxiety and emotional intelligence depending on the type of sport practised (individual/team) by means of a multigroup structural equations analysis. (2) 372 semi-professional Spanish athletes took part in this investigation, analysing motivational climate (PMCSQ-2), emotional intelligence (SSRI) and levels of anxiety (STAI). A model of multigroup structural equations was carried out which fitted accordingly (χ² = 586.77; df = 6.37; p < 0.001; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.951; Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.938; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.947; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.069). (3) Results: A negative and direct connection has been found between ego oriented climate and task oriented climate, which is stronger and more differentiated in team sports. The most influential indicator in ego oriented climate is intra-group rivalry, exerting greater influence in individual sports. For task-oriented climate the strongest indicator is having an important role in individual sports, while in team sports it is cooperative learning. Emotional intelligence dimensions correlate more strongly in team sports than in individual sports. In addition, there was a negative and indirect relation between task oriented climate and trait-anxiety in both categories of sports. (4) Conclusions: This study shows how the task-oriented motivational climate or certain levels of emotional intelligence can act preventively in the face of anxiety states in athletes. Therefore, the development of these psychological factors could prevent anxiety states and improve performance in athletes.

Emotional Intelligence, Motivational Climate and Levels of Anxiety in Athletes from Different Categories of Sports: Analysis through Structural Equations

PubMed Central

López-Gutiérrez, Carlos Javier; Zafra-Santos, Edson

2018-01-01

(1) Background: Psychological factors can strongly affect the athletes’ performance. Therefore, currently the role of the sports psychologist is particularly relevant, being in charge of training the athlete’s psychological factors. This study aims at analysing the connections between motivational climate in sport, anxiety and emotional intelligence depending on the type of sport practised (individual/team) by means of a multigroup structural equations analysis. (2) 372 semi-professional Spanish athletes took part in this investigation, analysing motivational climate (PMCSQ-2), emotional intelligence (SSRI) and levels of anxiety (STAI). A model of multigroup structural equations was carried out which fitted accordingly (χ2 = 586.77; df = 6.37; p < 0.001; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.951; Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.938; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.947; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.069). (3) Results: A negative and direct connection has been found between ego oriented climate and task oriented climate, which is stronger and more differentiated in team sports. The most influential indicator in ego oriented climate is intra-group rivalry, exerting greater influence in individual sports. For task-oriented climate the strongest indicator is having an important role in individual sports, while in team sports it is cooperative learning. Emotional intelligence dimensions correlate more strongly in team sports than in individual sports. In addition, there was a negative and indirect relation between task oriented climate and trait-anxiety in both categories of sports. (4) Conclusions: This study shows how the task-oriented motivational climate or certain levels of emotional intelligence can act preventively in the face of anxiety states in athletes. Therefore, the development of these psychological factors could prevent anxiety states and improve performance in athletes. PMID:29724008

Tuning a climate model using nudging to reanalysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheedela, S. K.; Mapes, B. E.

2014-12-01

Tuning a atmospheric general circulation model involves a daunting task of adjusting non-observable parameters to adjust the mean climate. These parameters arise from necessity to describe unresolved flow through parametrizations. Tuning a climate model is often done with certain set of priorities, such as global mean temperature, net top of the atmosphere radiation. These priorities are hard enough to reach let alone reducing systematic biases in the models. The goal of currently study is to explore alternate ways to tune a climate model to reduce some systematic biases that can be used in synergy with existing efforts. Nudging a climate model to a known state is a poor man's inverse of tuning process described above. Our approach involves nudging the atmospheric model to state of art reanalysis fields thereby providing a balanced state with respect to the global mean temperature and winds. The tendencies derived from nudging are negative of errors from physical parametrizations as the errors from dynamical core would be small. Patterns of nudging are compared to the patterns of different physical parametrizations to decipher the cause for certain biases in relation to tuning parameters. This approach might also help in understanding certain compensating errors that arise from tuning process. ECHAM6 is a comprehensive general model, also used in recent Coupled Model Intercomparision Project(CMIP5). The approach used to tune it and effect of certain parameters that effect its mean climate are reported clearly, hence it serves as a benchmark for our approach. Our planned experiments include nudging ECHAM6 atmospheric model to European Center Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and reanalysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and decipher choice of certain parameters that lead to systematic biases in its simulations. Of particular interest are reducing long standing biases related to simulation of Asian summer monsoon.

Identifying legal, ecological and governance obstacles and opportunities for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cosens, Barbara; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.

2014-01-01

Current governance of regional scale water management systems in the United States has not placed them on a path toward sustainability, as conflict and gridlock characterize the social arena and ecosystem services continue to erode. Changing climate may continue this trajectory, but it also provides a catalyst for renewal of ecosystems and a window of opportunity for change in institutions. Resilience provides a bridging concept that predicts that change in ecological and social systems is often dramatic, abrupt, and surprising. Adapting to the uncertainty of climate driven change must be done in a manner perceived as legitimate by the participants in a democratic society. Adaptation must begin with the current hierarchical and fragmented social-ecological system as a baseline from which new approaches must be applied. Achieving a level of integration between ecological concepts and governance requires a dialogue across multiple disciplines, including ecologists with expertise in ecological resilience, hydrologists and climate experts, with social scientists and legal scholars. Criteria and models that link ecological dynamics with policies in complex, multi-jurisdictional water basins with adaptive management and governance frameworks may move these social-ecological systems toward greater sustainability.

Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2015-04-01

A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation. Passing this course raises awareness of the general public, as well as prepares the user for subsequent registration in the system and work with its tools in conducting independent research. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.

The NOAA Local Climate Analysis Tool - An Application in Support of a Weather Ready Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M.

2012-12-01

Citizens across the U.S., including decision makers from the local to the national level, have a multitude of questions about climate, such as the current state and how that state fits into the historical context, and more importantly, how climate will impact them, especially with regard to linkages to extreme weather events. Developing answers to these types of questions for locations has typically required extensive work to gather data, conduct analyses, and generate relevant explanations and graphics. Too frequently providers don't have ready access to or knowledge of reliable, trusted data sets, nor sound, scientifically accepted analysis techniques such that they can provide a rapid response to queries they receive. In order to support National Weather Service (NWS) local office forecasters with information they need to deliver timely responses to climate-related questions from their customers, we have developed the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT). LCAT uses the principles of artificial intelligence to respond to queries, in particular, through use of machine technology that responds intelligently to input from users. A user translates customer questions into primary variables and issues and LCAT pulls the most relevant data and analysis techniques to provide information back to the user, who in turn responds to their customer. Most responses take on the order of 10 seconds, which includes providing statistics, graphical displays of information, translations for users, metadata, and a summary of the user request to LCAT. Applications in Phase I of LCAT, which is targeted for the NWS field offices, include Climate Change Impacts, Climate Variability Impacts, Drought Analysis and Impacts, Water Resources Applications, Attribution of Extreme Events, and analysis techniques such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, and correlation and regression techniques. Data accessed by LCAT are homogenized historical COOP and Climate Prediction Center climate division data available at NCDC. Applications for other NOAA offices and Federal agencies are currently being investigated, such as incorporation of tidal data, fish stocks, sea surface temperature, health-related data, and analyses relevant to those datasets. We will describe LCAT, its basic functionality, examples of analyses, and progress being made to provide the tool to a broader audience in support of ocean, fisheries, and health applications.

Determining Water Quality Trends in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Watershed in the Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kynett, K.; Azimi-Gaylon, S.; Doidic, C.

2014-12-01

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (Delta) is the largest estuary on the West Coast of the Americas and is a resource of local, State, and national significance. The Delta is simultaneously the most critical component of California's water supply, a primary focus of the state's ecological conservation measures, and a vital resource deeply imperiled by degraded water quality. Delta waterbodies are identified as impaired by salinity, excess nutrients, low dissolved oxygen, pathogens, pesticides, heavy metals, and other contaminants. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the impacts of existing stressors in the Delta and magnify the challenges of managing this natural resource. A clear understanding of the current state of the watershed is needed to better inform scientists, decision makers, and the public about potential impacts from climate change. The Delta Watershed Initiative Network (Delta WIN) leverages the ecological benefits of healthy watersheds, and enhances, expands and creates opportunities for greater watershed health by coordinating with agencies, established programs, and local organizations. At this critical junction, Delta WIN is coordinating data integration and analysis to develop better understanding of the existing and emerging water quality concerns. As first steps, Delta WIN is integrating existing water quality data, analyzing trends, and monitoring to fill data gaps and to evaluate indicators of climate change impacts. Available data will be used for trend analysis; Delta WIN will continue to monitor where data is incomplete and new questions arise. Understanding how climate change conditions may affect water quality will be used to inform efforts to build resilience and maintain water quality levels which sustain aquatic life and human needs. Assessments of historical and new data will aid in recognition of potential climate change impacts and in initiating implementation of best management practices in collaboration with State and local agencies. Ultimately, Delta WIN can inform responsive science and adaptive management in other estuaries and critical natural resource areas facing times of change.

Effects of climate change and population growth on the transboundary Santa Cruz aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, Christopher A.; Megdal, Sharon; Oroz, Lucas Antonio; Callegary, James; Vandervoet, Prescott

2012-01-01

The USA and Mexico have initiated comprehensive assessment of 4 of the 18 aquifers underlying their 3000 km border. Binational management of groundwater is not currently proposed. University and agency researchers plus USA and Mexican federal, state, and local agency staff have collaboratively identified key challenges facing the Santa Cruz River Valley Aquifer located between the states of Arizona and Sonora. The aquifer is subject to recharge variability, which is compounded by climate change, and is experiencing growing urban demand for groundwater. In this paper, we briefly review past, current, and projected pressures on Santa Cruz groundwater. We undertake first-order approximation of the relative magnitude of climate change and human demand drivers on the Santa Cruz water balance. Global circulation model output for emissions scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 present mixed trends, with annual precipitation projected to vary by ±20% over the 21st century. Results of our analysis indicate that urban water use will experience greater percentage change than climate-induced recharge (which remains the largest single component of the water balance). In the Mexican portion of the Santa Cruz, up to half of future total water demand will need to be met from non-aquifer sources. In the absence of water importation and with agricultural water use and rights increasingly appropriated for urban demand, wastewater is increasingly seen as a resource to meet urban demand. We consider decision making on both sides of the border and conclude by identifying short- and longer-term opportunities for further binational collaboration on transboundary aquifer assessment.

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on water- and foodborne diseases caused by microbiologic agents.

PubMed Central

Rose, J B; Epstein, P R; Lipp, E K; Sherman, B H; Bernard, S M; Patz, J A

2001-01-01

Exposure to waterborne and foodborne pathogens can occur via drinking water (associated with fecal contamination), seafood (due to natural microbial hazards, toxins, or wastewater disposal) or fresh produce (irrigated or processed with contaminated water). Weather influences the transport and dissemination of these microbial agents via rainfall and runoff and the survival and/or growth through such factors as temperature. Federal and state laws and regulatory programs protect much of the U.S. population from waterborne disease; however, if climate variability increases, current and future deficiencies in areas such as watershed protection, infrastructure, and storm drainage systems will probably increase the risk of contamination events. Knowledge about transport processes and the fate of microbial pollutants associated with rainfall and snowmelt is key to predicting risks from a change in weather variability. Although recent studies identified links between climate variability and occurrence of microbial agents in water, the relationships need further quantification in the context of other stresses. In the marine environment as well, there are few studies that adequately address the potential health effects of climate variability in combination with other stresses such as overfishing, introduced species, and rise in sea level. Advances in monitoring are necessary to enhance early-warning and prevention capabilities. Application of existing technologies, such as molecular fingerprinting to track contaminant sources or satellite remote sensing to detect coastal algal blooms, could be expanded. This assessment recommends incorporating a range of future scenarios of improvement plans for current deficiencies in the public health infrastructure to achieve more realistic risk assessments. PMID:11359688

Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-08-01

The detection of acceleration in mean sea level around the data-rich margins of the United States has been a keen endeavour of sea-level researchers following the seminal work of Bruce Douglas in 1992. Over the past decade, such investigations have taken on greater prominence given mean sea level remains a key proxy by which to measure a changing climate system. The physics-based climate projection models are forecasting that the current global average rate of mean sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) might climb to rates in the range of 10020 mm/y by 2100. Most research in this area has centred on reconciling current rates of rise with the significant accelerations required to meet the forecast projections of climate models. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled "msltrend," specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean-water-level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or substantial evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available for the United States, nor does any evidence exist that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely that a further 20 years of data will identify whether recent increases east of Galveston and along the east coast are evidence of the onset of climate change induced acceleration.

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on water- and foodborne diseases caused by microbiologic agents.

PubMed

Rose, J B; Epstein, P R; Lipp, E K; Sherman, B H; Bernard, S M; Patz, J A

2001-05-01

Exposure to waterborne and foodborne pathogens can occur via drinking water (associated with fecal contamination), seafood (due to natural microbial hazards, toxins, or wastewater disposal) or fresh produce (irrigated or processed with contaminated water). Weather influences the transport and dissemination of these microbial agents via rainfall and runoff and the survival and/or growth through such factors as temperature. Federal and state laws and regulatory programs protect much of the U.S. population from waterborne disease; however, if climate variability increases, current and future deficiencies in areas such as watershed protection, infrastructure, and storm drainage systems will probably increase the risk of contamination events. Knowledge about transport processes and the fate of microbial pollutants associated with rainfall and snowmelt is key to predicting risks from a change in weather variability. Although recent studies identified links between climate variability and occurrence of microbial agents in water, the relationships need further quantification in the context of other stresses. In the marine environment as well, there are few studies that adequately address the potential health effects of climate variability in combination with other stresses such as overfishing, introduced species, and rise in sea level. Advances in monitoring are necessary to enhance early-warning and prevention capabilities. Application of existing technologies, such as molecular fingerprinting to track contaminant sources or satellite remote sensing to detect coastal algal blooms, could be expanded. This assessment recommends incorporating a range of future scenarios of improvement plans for current deficiencies in the public health infrastructure to achieve more realistic risk assessments.

What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

2015-12-01

Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds.

PubMed

Vale, Mariana M; Souza, Thiago V; Alves, Maria Alice S; Crouzeilles, Renato

2018-01-01

A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species' representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km 2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as "no regret" areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds

PubMed Central

Souza, Thiago V.; Alves, Maria Alice S.; Crouzeilles, Renato

2018-01-01

Background A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. Methods We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. Results We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Discussion Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies. PMID:29844952

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula; Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.

2004-01-01

Aerospace Meteorology provides the identification of that aspect of meteorology that is concerned with the definition and modeling of atmospheric parameters for use in aerospace vehicle development, mission planning and operational capability assessments. One of the principal sources of this information is the NASA-HDBK-1001 "Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development'. This handbook was approved by the NASA Chief Engineer in 2000 as a NASA Preferred Technical Standard . Its technical contents were based on natural environment statistics/models and criteria developed mostly in the early 1990's. A task was approved to completely update the handbook to reflect the current state-of-the-art in the various terrestrial environment climatic areas.

U.S. 2013 National Climate Assessment of Oceans and Marine Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doney, S. C.; Rosenberg, A.

2012-12-01

We will discuss the key findings from the Oceans and Marine Resources chapter of the U.S. 2013 National Climate Assessment. As a nation, we depend on the ocean for seafood, recreation and tourism, cultural heritage, transportation of goods, and increasingly, energy and other critical resources. The U.S. ocean Exclusive Economic Zone extends 200 nautical miles seaward from the coast, spanning an area about 1.7 times the land area of the continental United States and encompassing waters along the U.S. east, west and Gulf coasts, around Alaska and Hawaii, and including the U.S. territories in the Pacific and Caribbean. This vast region is host to a rich diversity of marine plants and animals and a wide range of ecosystems from tropical coral reefs to sea-ice covered, polar waters in the Arctic. We will highlight the current state of knowledge on changing ocean climate conditions, such as warming, sea-ice retreat and ocean acidification, and how these may be impacting valuable marine ecosystems and the array of resources and services we derive from the sea now and into the future. We will also touch on the interaction of climate change impacts with other human factors including pollution and over-fishing.

The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margrethe Basse, Ellen; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Besenbacher, Flemming; Læssøe, Jeppe; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Lange, Lene

2009-03-01

More than 1000 prominent representatives from science, industry, politics and NGOs were gathered in Aarhus on 5-7 March 2009 for the international climate conference 'Beyond Kyoto: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change'. Thematically, Beyond Kyoto was divided into seven areas of particular interest for understanding the effects of the projected future climate change and how the foreseen negative impacts can be counteracted by mitigation and adaptation measures. The themes were: Climate policy: the role of law and economics; Biodiversity and ecosystems; Agriculture and climate change; Nanotechnology solutions for a sustainable future; Citizens and society, and The Arctic. The main responsible scientists for the seven conference themes and representatives from the think-tank CONCITO delivered 'The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change' as part of the closing session of the conference. The statements were also communicated to the Danish Government as well as to the press. This article is the product of the collective subsequent work of the seven theme responsibles and is a presentation of each theme statement in detail, emphasizing the current state of knowledge and how it may be used to minimize the expected negative impacts of future climate change.

Climate Change and Food Safety: Beyond Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziska, L. H.; Crimmins, A. R.

2016-12-01

There is merited interest in determining the extent of climate disruption on agricultural production and food security. However, additional aspects of food security, including food safety, nutrition and distribution have, overall, received less attention. Beginning in 2013, the U.S. Global Change Research Program as part of the ongoing National Climate Assessment, began a directed effort to evaluate the vulnerability of climate change to these under-represented aspects of food security for developed countries. Based on this extensive review of current science, several key findings were developed: (a) Climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in weather extremes, is expected to increase the exposure of food to certain pathogens and toxins; (b) Climate change will increase human exposure to chemical contaminants in food through several pathways; (c) The nutritional value of agriculturally important food crops, including cereals, will decrease in response to the ongoing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide; (d) Increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events associated with climate change may disrupt food distribution. These findings will be presented as a means to describe the state of the science and expand on food security research in the broader context of public health and climate change.

Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, Charles D.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Lawrence, David M.; Wieder, William R.

2017-11-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour.

Providing farmers, ranchers, and foresters in California with actionable climate information: opportunities and obstacles for California's USDA Regional Climate Sub Hub

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, A. C.; Steenwerth, K. L.; Stine, P.; Chambers, J.; Fischer, C.; Kiger, L.; Hedt, T.; Gonzales, O.; Tse, R.; Tse, A.; Gunasekara, A.; Henly, R.; DeLaRosa, J.; Battany, M.; Pathak, T.; Parker, D.; Schwartz, M.; Tjeerdema, R.; Kalansky, J.; Kehmeier, E.; Xides, A.; Marshall, A.; Jagannathan, K.

2015-12-01

California is the #1 agricultural state in the US, with output worth $50 billion in 2014. California produces half the nation's specialty crops (fruits, vegetables, and nuts) and is a leader in beef and dairy production. California also has 10% of the forestland west of the Mississippi, including many economically and ecologically important forest types. The USDA Regional Climate Sub Hub for California was created in 2014 to help land users (farmers, ranchers, and forest land owners) cope with climate variability and change, via two-way linkages with producers of climate information. In its first year and a half, the Sub Hub has formed partnerships with California's many other climate-focused organizations, including state and federal government, universities, and NGOs. The Sub Hub coordinates climate-related work among several USDA agencies (ARS, FS, NRCS, and others), which formerly had no mechanism to do so. The Sub Hub also works with other federal climate programs (such as the DOI's CA Landscape Conservation Cooperative, with which the Sub Hub is engaged in a multi-year assessment to balance conservation and agriculture in the Central Valley). State government agencies, such as the Natural Resources Agency and the Department of Food and Agriculture, are key partners for priority-setting and data-sharing. One of the Sub Hub's crucial synergies is with UC Cooperative Extension, which provides insight into land users' needs and provides an outlet to deliver Sub Hub products on the ground. In response to stakeholder concerns, the Sub Hub's 2015-16 emphasis is the ongoing California drought. The Sub Hub's current stakeholder-focused projects include (1) a climate vulnerability assessment of California rangelands, including detailed maps of likely vegetation change and suggestions for location-specific adaptation options; (2) a comprehensive climate-related update of Cooperative Extension's widely used Forest Stewardship Series for private landowners; (3) a study on climate information needs of California nut growers; and (4) a series of sector-specific fact sheets on drought impacts and adaptation. To succeed, these efforts must acknowledge that land users do not seek climate information in isolation; rather, they need to integrate it with other components of their decision-making.

NOAA's State Climate Summaries for the National Climate Assessment: A Sustained Assessment Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Champion, S.; Frankson, R.; Easterling, D. R.; Griffin, J.; Runkle, J. D.; Stevens, L. E.; Stewart, B. C.; Sun, L.; Veasey, S.

2016-12-01

A set of State Climate Summaries have been produced for all 50 U.S. states as part of the National Climate Assessment Sustained Assessment and represent a NOAA contribution to this process. Each summary includes information on observed and projected climate change conditions and impacts associated with future greenhouse gas emissions pathways. The summaries focus on the physical climate and coastal issues as a part of NOAA's mission. Core climate data and simulations used to produce these summaries have been previously published, and have been analyzed to represent a targeted synthesis of historical and plausible future climate conditions. As these are intended to be supplemental to major climate assessment development, the scope of the content remains true to a "summary" style document. Each state's Climate Summary includes its climatology and projections of future temperatures and precipitation, which are presented in order to provide a context for the assessment of future impacts. The climatological component focuses on temperature, precipitation, and noteworthy weather events specific to each state and relevant to the climate change discussion. Future climate scenarios are also briefly discussed, using well-known and consistent sets of climate model simulations based on two possible futures of greenhouse gas emissions. These future scenarios present an internally consistent climate picture for every state and are intended to inform the potential impacts of climate change. These 50 State Climate Summaries were produced by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the North Carolina State University Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC (CICS-NC) with additional input provided by climate experts, including the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and State Climatologists. Each summary document also underwent a comprehensive and anonymous peer review. Each summary contains text, figures, and an interactive web presentation. A full suite of the comprehensive analyses and metadata are also available. The audience is targeted as both decision-makers and informed non-scientists. This presentation will discuss the scientific development for the project, demonstrate the suite of information, and provide examples of noteworthy figures from select states.

Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

2017-08-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.