Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.)

PubMed Central

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E.

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21–18 kyr BP) and LIG (130–116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut. PMID:29023476

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.).

PubMed

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Velasco, Dianne; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21-18 kyr BP) and LIG (130-116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut.

Modeling and experiments of the adhesion force distribution between particles and a surface.

PubMed

You, Siming; Wan, Man Pun

2014-06-17

Due to the existence of surface roughness in real surfaces, the adhesion force between particles and the surface where the particles are deposited exhibits certain statistical distributions. Despite the importance of adhesion force distribution in a variety of applications, the current understanding of modeling adhesion force distribution is still limited. In this work, an adhesion force distribution model based on integrating the root-mean-square (RMS) roughness distribution (i.e., the variation of RMS roughness on the surface in terms of location) into recently proposed mean adhesion force models was proposed. The integration was accomplished by statistical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. A series of centrifuge experiments were conducted to measure the adhesion force distributions between polystyrene particles (146.1 ± 1.99 μm) and various substrates (stainless steel, aluminum and plastic, respectively). The proposed model was validated against the measured adhesion force distributions from this work and another previous study. Based on the proposed model, the effect of RMS roughness distribution on the adhesion force distribution of particles on a rough surface was explored, showing that both the median and standard deviation of adhesion force distribution could be affected by the RMS roughness distribution. The proposed model could predict both van der Waals force and capillary force distributions and consider the multiscale roughness feature, greatly extending the current capability of adhesion force distribution prediction.

New trends in species distribution modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

Electrical utilities model for determining electrical distribution capacity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fritz, R. L.

1997-09-03

In its simplest form, this model was to obtain meaningful data on the current state of the Site`s electrical transmission and distribution assets, and turn this vast collection of data into useful information. The resulting product is an Electrical Utilities Model for Determining Electrical Distribution Capacity which provides: current state of the electrical transmission and distribution systems; critical Hanford Site needs based on outyear planning documents; decision factor model. This model will enable Electrical Utilities management to improve forecasting requirements for service levels, budget, schedule, scope, and staffing, and recommend the best path forward to satisfy customer demands at themore » minimum risk and least cost to the government. A dynamic document, the model will be updated annually to reflect changes in Hanford Site activities.« less

Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only. PMID:23840330

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

PubMed

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

The numerical model of the sediment distribution pattern at Lampulo National fisheries port

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irham, M.; Setiawan, I.

2018-01-01

The spatial distribution of sediment pattern was studied at Lampulo Fisheries Port, Krueng Aceh estuarial area, Banda Aceh. The research was conducted using the numerical model of wave-induced currents at shallow water area. The study aims to understand how waves and currents react to the pattern of sediment distribution around the beach structure in that region. The study demonstrated that the port pool area had no sedimentation and erosion occurred because the port was protected by the jetty as the breakwater to defend the incoming waves toward the pool. The protected pool created a weak current circulation to distribute the sediments. On the other hand, the sediments were heavily distributed along the beach due to the existence of longshore currents near the shoreline (outside the port pool area). Meanwhile, at the estuarial area, the incoming fresh water flow responded to the coastal shallow water currents, generating Eddy-like flow at the mouth of the river.

Past, Present and Future Distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: Ecological and Evolutionary Clues from Species Distribution Models

PubMed Central

Acevedo, Pelayo; Melo-Ferreira, José; Real, Raimundo; Alves, Paulo Célio

2012-01-01

The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species’ ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model’s output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change. PMID:23272115

Electrical resistance tomography using steel cased boreholes as electrodes

DOEpatents

Daily, W.D.; Ramirez, A.L.

1999-06-22

An electrical resistance tomography method is described which uses steel cased boreholes as electrodes. The method enables mapping the electrical resistivity distribution in the subsurface from measurements of electrical potential caused by electrical currents injected into an array of electrodes in the subsurface. By use of current injection and potential measurement electrodes to generate data about the subsurface resistivity distribution, which data is then used in an inverse calculation, a model of the electrical resistivity distribution can be obtained. The inverse model may be constrained by independent data to better define an inverse solution. The method utilizes pairs of electrically conductive (steel) borehole casings as current injection electrodes and as potential measurement electrodes. The greater the number of steel cased boreholes in an array, the greater the amount of data is obtained. The steel cased boreholes may be utilized for either current injection or potential measurement electrodes. The subsurface model produced by this method can be 2 or 3 dimensional in resistivity depending on the detail desired in the calculated resistivity distribution and the amount of data to constrain the models. 2 figs.

Electrical resistance tomography using steel cased boreholes as electrodes

DOEpatents

Daily, William D.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

1999-01-01

An electrical resistance tomography method using steel cased boreholes as electrodes. The method enables mapping the electrical resistivity distribution in the subsurface from measurements of electrical potential caused by electrical currents injected into an array of electrodes in the subsurface. By use of current injection and potential measurement electrodes to generate data about the subsurface resistivity distribution, which data is then used in an inverse calculation, a model of the electrical resistivity distribution can be obtained. The inverse model may be constrained by independent data to better define an inverse solution. The method utilizes pairs of electrically conductive (steel) borehole casings as current injection electrodes and as potential measurement electrodes. The greater the number of steel cased boreholes in an array, the greater the amount of data is obtained. The steel cased boreholes may be utilized for either current injection or potential measurement electrodes. The subsurface model produced by this method can be 2 or 3 dimensional in resistivity depending on the detail desired in the calculated resistivity distribution and the amount of data to constain the models.

Investigation of the effects of external current systems on the MAGSAT data utilizing grid cell modeling techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klumpar, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Progress is reported in reading MAGSAT tapes in modeling procedure developed to compute the magnetic fields at satellite orbit due to current distributions in the ionosphere. The modeling technique utilizes a linear current element representation of the large-scale space-current system.

Integrating multiple distribution models to guide conservation efforts of an endangered toad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Treglia, Michael L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models are used for numerous purposes such as predicting changes in species’ ranges and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Although implications of distribution models for conservation are often implicit, few studies use these tools explicitly to inform conservation efforts. Herein, we illustrate how multiple distribution models developed using distinct sets of environmental variables can be integrated to aid in identification sites for use in conservation. We focus on the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus), which relies on open, sandy streams and surrounding floodplains in southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico. Declines of the species are largely attributed to habitat degradation associated with vegetation encroachment, invasive predators, and altered hydrologic regimes. We had three main goals: 1) develop a model of potential habitat for arroyo toads, based on long-term environmental variables and all available locality data; 2) develop a model of the species’ current habitat by incorporating recent remotely-sensed variables and only using recent locality data; and 3) integrate results of both models to identify sites that may be employed in conservation efforts. We used a machine learning technique, Random Forests, to develop the models, focused on riparian zones in southern California. We identified 14.37% and 10.50% of our study area as potential and current habitat for the arroyo toad, respectively. Generally, inclusion of remotely-sensed variables reduced modeled suitability of sites, thus many areas modeled as potential habitat were not modeled as current habitat. We propose such sites could be made suitable for arroyo toads through active management, increasing current habitat by up to 67.02%. Our general approach can be employed to guide conservation efforts of virtually any species with sufficient data necessary to develop appropriate distribution models.

Integrated Joule switches for the control of current dynamics in parallel superconducting strips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casaburi, A.; Heath, R. M.; Cristiano, R.; Ejrnaes, M.; Zen, N.; Ohkubo, M.; Hadfield, R. H.

2018-06-01

Understanding and harnessing the physics of the dynamic current distribution in parallel superconducting strips holds the key to creating next generation sensors for single molecule and single photon detection. Non-uniformity in the current distribution in parallel superconducting strips leads to low detection efficiency and unstable operation, preventing the scale up to large area sensors. Recent studies indicate that non-uniform current distributions occurring in parallel strips can be understood and modeled in the framework of the generalized London model. Here we build on this important physical insight, investigating an innovative design with integrated superconducting-to-resistive Joule switches to break the superconducting loops between the strips and thus control the current dynamics. Employing precision low temperature nano-optical techniques, we map the uniformity of the current distribution before- and after the resistive strip switching event, confirming the effectiveness of our design. These results provide important insights for the development of next generation large area superconducting strip-based sensors.

The relationship between climate change and the endangered rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu-Kimura, Yoko; Accad, Arnon; Shapcott, Alison

2017-04-01

Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes and restricted distributions. This study modelled climate induced changes on the habitat distribution of the endangered rainforest plant Triunia robusta, endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. Species distribution models were developed for eastern Australia at 250 m grids and southeast Queensland at 25 m grids using ground-truthed presence records and environmental predictor data. The species’ habitat distribution under the current climate was modelled, and the future potential habitat distributions were projected for the epochs 2030, 2050 and 2070. The eastern Australia model identified several spatially disjunct, broad habitat areas of coastal eastern Australia consistent with the current distribution of rainforests, and projected a southward and upslope contraction driven mainly by average temperatures exceeding current range limits. The southeast Queensland models suggest a dramatic upslope contraction toward locations where the majority of known populations are found. Populations located in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, consistent with past rainforest refugia, are likely to persist long-term. Upgrading the level of protection for less formal nature reserves containing viable populations is a high priority to better protect refugial T. robusta populations with respect to climate change.

The relationship between climate change and the endangered rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Shimizu-Kimura, Yoko; Accad, Arnon; Shapcott, Alison

2017-01-01

Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes and restricted distributions. This study modelled climate induced changes on the habitat distribution of the endangered rainforest plant Triunia robusta, endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. Species distribution models were developed for eastern Australia at 250 m grids and southeast Queensland at 25 m grids using ground-truthed presence records and environmental predictor data. The species’ habitat distribution under the current climate was modelled, and the future potential habitat distributions were projected for the epochs 2030, 2050 and 2070. The eastern Australia model identified several spatially disjunct, broad habitat areas of coastal eastern Australia consistent with the current distribution of rainforests, and projected a southward and upslope contraction driven mainly by average temperatures exceeding current range limits. The southeast Queensland models suggest a dramatic upslope contraction toward locations where the majority of known populations are found. Populations located in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, consistent with past rainforest refugia, are likely to persist long-term. Upgrading the level of protection for less formal nature reserves containing viable populations is a high priority to better protect refugial T. robusta populations with respect to climate change. PMID:28422136

Investigation of the effects of external current systems on the MAGSAT data utilizing grid cell modeling techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klumpar, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The status of the initial testing of the modeling procedure developed to compute the magnetic fields at satellite orbit due to current distributions in the ionosphere and magnetosphere is reported. The modeling technique utilizes a linear current element representation of the large scale space-current system.

Effect of the intra-layer potential distributions and spatial currents on the performance of graphene SymFETs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hasan, Mehdi; Sensale-Rodriguez, Berardi, E-mail: berardi.sensale@utah.edu

2015-09-15

In this paper, a two-dimensional (2-D) model for a graphene symmetric field effect transistor (SymFET), which considers (a) the intra-graphene layer potential distributions and (b) the internal current flows through the device, is presented and discussed. The local voltages along the graphene electrodes as well as the current-voltage characteristics of the device are numerically calculated based on a single-particle tunneling model. Our numerical results show that: (i) when the tunneling current is small, due to either a large tunneling thickness (≥ 2 atomic layers of BN) or a small coherence length, the voltage distributions along the graphene electrodes have almostmore » zero variations upon including these distributed effects, (ii) when the tunnel current is large, due to either a small tunneling thickness (∼ 1 atomic layer of BN) or due to a large coherence length, the local voltage distributions along the graphene electrodes become appreciable and the device behavior deviates from that predicted by a 1-D approximation. These effects, which are not captured in one-dimensional SymFET models, can provide a better understanding about the electron dynamics in the device and might indicate potential novel applications for this proposed device.« less

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. I - The lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hays, P. B.; Roble, R. G.

1979-01-01

A quasi-steady model of global lower atmospheric electricity is presented. The model considers thunderstorms as dipole electric generators that can be randomly distributed in various regions and that are the only source of atmospheric electricity and includes the effects of orography and electrical coupling along geomagnetic field lines in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The model is used to calculate the global distribution of electric potential and current for model conductivities and assumed spatial distributions of thunderstorms. Results indicate that large positive electric potentials are generated over thunderstorms and penetrate to ionospheric heights and into the conjugate hemisphere along magnetic field lines. The perturbation of the calculated electric potential and current distributions during solar flares and subsequent Forbush decreases is discussed, and future measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters and modifications of the model which would improve the agreement between calculations and measurements are suggested.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Structure of the Magnetotail Current Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, Douglas J.; Kaufmann, Richard L.

1996-01-01

An orbit tracing technique was used to generate current sheets for three magnetotail models. Groups of ions were followed to calculate the resulting cross-tail current. Several groups then were combined to produce a current sheet. The goal is a model in which the ions and associated electrons carry the electric current distribution needed to generate the magnetic field B in which ion orbits were traced. The region -20 R(sub E) less than x less than - 14 R(sub E) in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinates was studied. Emphasis was placed on identifying the categories of ion orbits which contribute most to the cross-tail current and on gaining physical insight into the manner by which the ions carry the observed current distribution. Ions that were trapped near z = 0, ions that magnetically mirrored throughout the current sheet, and ions that mirrored near the Earth all were needed. The current sheet structure was determined primarily by ion magnetization currents. Electrons of the observed energies carried relatively little cross-tail current in these quiet time current sheets. Distribution functions were generated and integrated to evaluate fluid parameters. An earlier model in which B depended only on z produced a consistent current sheet, but it did not provide a realistic representation of the Earth's middle magnetotail. In the present study, B changed substantially in the x and z directions but only weakly in the y direction within our region of interest. Plasmas with three characteristic particle energies were used with each of the magnetic field models. A plasma was found for each model in which the density, average energy, cross-tail current, and bulk flow velocity agreed well with satellite observations.

Structure of the Magnetotail Current Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, Douglas J.; Kaufmann, Richard L.

1996-01-01

An orbit tracing technique was used to generate current sheets for three magnetotail models. Groups of ions were followed to calculate the resulting cross-tail current. Several groups then were combined to produce a current sheet. The goal is a model in which the ions and associated electrons carry the electric current distribution needed to generate the magnetic field B in which ion orbits were traced. The region -20 R(E) less than x less than -14 R(E) in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinates was studied. Emphasis was placed on identifying the categories of ion orbits which contribute most to the cross-tail current and on gaining physical insight into the manner by which the ions carry the observed current distribution. Ions that were trapped near z = 0, ions that magnetically mirrored throughout the current sheet, and ions that mirrored near the Earth all were needed. The current sheet structure was determined primarily by ion magnetization currents. Electrons of the observed energies carried relatively little cross-tail current in these quiet time current sheets. Distribution functions were generated and integrated to evaluate fluid parameters. An earlier model in which B depended only on z produced a consistent current sheet, but it did not provide a realistic representation of the Earth's middle magnetotail. In the present study, B changed substantially in the x and z directions but only weakly in the y direction within our region of interest. Plasmas with three characteristic particle energies were used with each of the magnetic field models. A plasma was found for each model in which the density, average energy, cross-tail current, and bulk flow velocity agreed well with satellite observations.

Current sheet in plasma as a system with a controlling parameter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fridman, Yu. A., E-mail: yulya-fridman@yandex.ru; Chukbar, K. V., E-mail: Chukbar-KV@nrcki.ru

2015-08-15

A simple kinetic model describing stationary solutions with bifurcated and single-peaked current density profiles of a plane electron beam or current sheet in plasma is presented. A connection is established between the two-dimensional constructions arising in terms of the model and the one-dimensional considerations by Bernstein−Greene−Kruskal facilitating the reconstruction of the distribution function of trapped particles when both the profile of the electric potential and the free particles distribution function are known.

A new method for electric impedance imaging using an eddy current with a tetrapolar circuit.

PubMed

Ahsan-Ul-Ambia; Toda, Shogo; Takemae, Tadashi; Kosugi, Yukio; Hongo, Minoru

2009-02-01

A new contactless technique for electrical impedance imaging, using an eddy current managed along with the tetrapolar circuit method, is proposed. The eddy current produced by a magnetic field is superimposed on a constant current that is normally used in the tetrapolar circuit method, and thus is used to control the current distribution in the body. By changing the current distribution, a set of voltage differences is measured with a pair of electrodes. This set of voltage differences is used in the image reconstruction of the resistivity distribution. The least square error minimization method is used in the reconstruction algorithm. The principle of this method is explained theoretically. A backprojection algorithm was used to get 2-D images. Based on this principle, a measurement system was developed and model experiments were conducted with a saline-filled phantom. The estimated shape of each model in the reconstructed image was similar to that of the corresponding model. From the results of these experiments, it is confirmed that the proposed method is applicable to the realization of electrical conductivity imaging.

Use of a spread sheet to calculate the current-density distribution produced in human and rat models by low-frequency electric fields.

PubMed

Hart, F X

1990-01-01

The current-density distribution produced inside irregularly shaped, homogeneous human and rat models by low-frequency electric fields is obtained by a two-stage finite-difference procedure. In the first stage the model is assumed to be equipotential. Laplace's equation is solved by iteration in the external region to obtain the capacitive-current densities at the model's surface elements. These values then provide the boundary conditions for the second-stage relaxation solution, which yields the internal current-density distribution. Calculations were performed with the Excel spread-sheet program on a Macintosh-II microcomputer. A spread sheet is a two-dimensional array of cells. Each cell of the sheet can represent a square element of space. Equations relating the values of the cells can represent the relationships between the potentials in the corresponding spatial elements. Extension to three dimensions is readily made. Good agreement was obtained with current densities measured on human models with both, one, or no legs grounded and on rat models in four different grounding configurations. The results also compared well with predictions of more sophisticated numerical analyses. Spread sheets can provide an inexpensive and relatively simple means to perform good, approximate dosimetric calculations on irregularly shaped objects.

Current state of the art for statistical modeling of species distributions [Chapter 16

Treesearch

Troy M. Hegel; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeffrey Evans; Falk Huettmann

2010-01-01

Over the past decade the number of statistical modelling tools available to ecologists to model species' distributions has increased at a rapid pace (e.g. Elith et al. 2006; Austin 2007), as have the number of species distribution models (SDM) published in the literature (e.g. Scott et al. 2002). Ten years ago, basic logistic regression (Hosmer and Lemeshow 2000)...

Bringing modeling to the masses: A web based system to predict potential species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Newman, Greg; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nick; Crall, Alycia W.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Evangelista, Paul

2010-01-01

Predicting current and potential species distributions and abundance is critical for managing invasive species, preserving threatened and endangered species, and conserving native species and habitats. Accurate predictive models are needed at local, regional, and national scales to guide field surveys, improve monitoring, and set priorities for conservation and restoration. Modeling capabilities, however, are often limited by access to software and environmental data required for predictions. To address these needs, we built a comprehensive web-based system that: (1) maintains a large database of field data; (2) provides access to field data and a wealth of environmental data; (3) accesses values in rasters representing environmental characteristics; (4) runs statistical spatial models; and (5) creates maps that predict the potential species distribution. The system is available online at www.niiss.org, and provides web-based tools for stakeholders to create potential species distribution models and maps under current and future climate scenarios.

Compact modeling of SiC Schottky barrier diode and its extension to junction barrier Schottky diode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro, Dondee; Herrera, Fernando; Zenitani, Hiroshi; Miura-Mattausch, Mitiko; Yorino, Naoto; Jürgen Mattausch, Hans; Takusagawa, Mamoru; Kobayashi, Jun; Hara, Masafumi

2018-04-01

A compact model applicable for both Schottky barrier diode (SBD) and junction barrier Schottky diode (JBS) structures is developed. The SBD model considers the current due to thermionic emission in the metal/semiconductor junction together with the resistance of the lightly doped drift layer. Extension of the SBD model to JBS is accomplished by modeling the distributed resistance induced by the p+ implant developed for minimizing the leakage current at reverse bias. Only the geometrical features of the p+ implant are necessary to model the distributed resistance. Reproduction of 4H-SiC SBD and JBS current-voltage characteristics with the developed compact model are validated against two-dimensional (2D) device-simulation results as well as measurements at different temperatures.

Positive feedback : exploring current approaches in iterative travel demand model implementation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

Currently, the models that TxDOTs Transportation Planning and Programming Division (TPP) developed are : traditional three-step models (i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, and traffic assignment) that are sequentially : applied. A limitation...

Climatic-Induced Shifts in the Distribution of Teak ( Tectona grandis) in Tropical Asia: Implications for Forest Management and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deb, Jiban Chandra; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A.

2017-09-01

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak ( Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Examining fluvial fish range loss with SDMs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Andrew T.; Papeş, Monica; Long, James M.

2018-01-01

Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the range of the fluvial‐specialist shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) continues to decrease, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We used species distribution models to determine which factors contributed most to shoal bass range loss. We estimated a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and a series of currently occupied distributions that incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non‐native species, and river fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). We allowed interspecific relationships between non‐native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of currently occupied distribution showed that range loss increased as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from models of currently occupied distribution indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non‐native congeners, wherein non‐natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that >100 km of interconnected, free‐flowing stream fragments were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested that models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily available, diverse, geospatial data sets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats.

The point spread function of the human head and its implications for transcranial current stimulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmochowski, Jacek P.; Bikson, Marom; Parra, Lucas C.

2012-10-01

Rational development of transcranial current stimulation (tCS) requires solving the ‘forward problem’: the computation of the electric field distribution in the head resulting from the application of scalp currents. Derivation of forward models has represented a major effort in brain stimulation research, with model complexity ranging from spherical shells to individualized head models based on magnetic resonance imagery. Despite such effort, an easily accessible benchmark head model is greatly needed when individualized modeling is either undesired (to observe general population trends as opposed to individual differences) or unfeasible. Here, we derive a closed-form linear system which relates the applied current to the induced electric potential. It is shown that in the spherical harmonic (Fourier) domain, a simple scalar multiplication relates the current density on the scalp to the electric potential in the brain. Equivalently, the current density in the head follows as the spherical convolution between the scalp current distribution and the point spread function of the head, which we derive. Thus, if one knows the spherical harmonic representation of the scalp current (i.e. the electrode locations and current intensity to be employed), one can easily compute the resulting electric field at any point inside the head. Conversely, one may also readily determine the scalp current distribution required to generate an arbitrary electric field in the brain (the ‘backward problem’ in tCS). We demonstrate the simplicity and utility of the model with a series of characteristic curves which sweep across a variety of stimulation parameters: electrode size, depth of stimulation, head size and anode-cathode separation. Finally, theoretically optimal montages for targeting an infinitesimal point in the brain are shown.

Bounding species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Esaias, W.E.; Morisette, J.T.

2011-01-01

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used. ?? 2011 Current Zoology.

Bounding Species Distribution Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

2011-01-01

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios.

PubMed

Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri; Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

2015-08-19

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46% of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex.

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.

PubMed

Aryal, Achyut; Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Ji, Weihong; Ale, Som B; Shrestha, Sujata; Ingty, Tenzing; Maraseni, Tek; Cockfield, Geoff; Raubenheimer, David

2016-06-01

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

Research on Orbital Plasma-Electrodynamics (ROPE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, S. T.; Wright, K.

1994-01-01

Since the development of probe theory by Langmuir and Blodgett, the problem of current collection by a charged spherically or cylindrically symmetric body has been investigated by a number of authors. This paper overviews the development of a fully three-dimensional particle simulation code which can be used to understand the physics of current collection in three dimensions and can be used to analyze data resulting from the future tethered satellite system (TSS). According to the TSS configurations, two types of particle simulation models were constructed: a simple particle simulation (SIPS) and a super particle simulation (SUPS). The models study the electron transient response and its asymptotic behavior around a three dimensional, highly biased satellite. The potential distribution surrounding the satellite is determined by solving Laplace's equation in the SIPS model and by solving Poisson's equation in the SUPS model. Thus, the potential distribution in space is independent of the density distribution of the particles in the SUPS model but it does depend on the density distribution of the particles in the SUPS model. The evolution of the potential distribution in the SUPS model is described. When the spherical satellite is charged to a highly positive potential and immersed in a plasma with a uniform magnetic field, the formation of an electron torus in the equatorial plane (the plane in perpendicular to the magnetic field) and elongation of the torus along the magnetic field are found in both the SIPS and the SUPS models but the shape of the torus is different. The areas of high potential that exist in the polar regions in the SUPS model exaggerate the elongation of the electron torus along the magnetic field. The current collected by the satellite for different magentic field strengths is investigated in both models. Due to the nonlinear effects present in SUPS, the oscillating phenomenon of the current collection curve during the first 10 plasma periods can be seen (this does not appear in SIPS). From the parametric studies, it appears that the oscillating phenomenon of the current collection curve occurs only when the magnetic field strength is less than 0.2 gauss for the present model.

An iterative model for the steady state current distribution in oxide-confined vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuang, Hsueh-Hua

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop an iterative model for the analysis of the current distribution in vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs) using a circuit network modeling approach. This iterative model divides the VCSEL structure into numerous annular elements and uses a circuit network consisting of resistors and diodes. The measured sheet resistance of the p-distributed Bragg reflector (DBR), the measured sheet resistance of the layers under the oxide layer, and two empirical adjustable parameters are used as inputs to the iterative model to determine the resistance of each resistor. The two empirical values are related to the anisotropy of the resistivity of the p-DBR structure. The spontaneous current, stimulated current, and surface recombination current are accounted for by the diodes. The lateral carrier transport in the quantum well region is analyzed using drift and diffusion currents. The optical gain is calculated as a function of wavelength and carrier density from fundamental principles. The predicted threshold current densities for these VCSELs match the experimentally measured current densities over the wavelength range of 0.83 mum to 0.86 mum with an error of less than 5%. This model includes the effects of the resistance of the p-DBR mirrors, the oxide current-confining layer and spatial hole burning. Our model shows that higher sheet resistance under the oxide layer reduces the threshold current, but also reduces the current range over which single transverse mode operation occurs. The spatial hole burning profile depends on the lateral drift and diffusion of carriers in the quantum wells but is dominated by the voltage drop across the p-DBR region. To my knowledge, for the first time, the drift current and the diffusion current are treated separately. Previous work uses an ambipolar approach, which underestimates the total charge transferred in the quantum well region, especially under the oxide region. However, the total result of the drift current and the diffusion current is less significant than the Ohmic current, especially in the cavity region. This simple iterative model is applied to commercially available oxide-confined VCSELs. The simulation results show excellent agreement with experimentally measured voltage-current curves (within 3.7% for a 10 mum and within 4% for a 5 mum diameter VCSEL) and light-current curves (within 2% for a 10 mum and within 9% for a 5 mum diameter VCSEL) curves and provides insight into the detailed distributions of current and voltage within a VCSEL. This difference between the theoretically calculated results and the measured results is less than the variation shown in the data sheets for production VCSELs.

Theoretical and measured electric field distributions within an annular phased array: consideration of source antennas.

PubMed

Zhang, Y; Joines, W T; Jirtle, R L; Samulski, T V

1993-08-01

The magnitude of E-field patterns generated by an annular array prototype device has been calculated and measured. Two models were used to describe the radiating sources: a simple linear dipole and a stripline antenna model. The stripline model includes detailed geometry of the actual antennas used in the prototype and an estimate of the antenna current based on microstrip transmission line theory. This more detailed model yields better agreement with the measured field patterns, reducing the rms discrepancy by a factor of about 6 (from approximately 23 to 4%) in the central region of interest where the SEM is within 25% of the maximum. We conclude that accurate modeling of source current distributions is important for determining SEM distributions associated with such heating devices.

Single photon counting linear mode avalanche photodiode technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, George M.; Huntington, Andrew S.

2011-10-01

The false count rate of a single-photon-sensitive photoreceiver consisting of a high-gain, low-excess-noise linear-mode InGaAs avalanche photodiode (APD) and a high-bandwidth transimpedance amplifier (TIA) is fit to a statistical model. The peak height distribution of the APD's multiplied dark current is approximated by the weighted sum of McIntyre distributions, each characterizing dark current generated at a different location within the APD's junction. The peak height distribution approximated in this way is convolved with a Gaussian distribution representing the input-referred noise of the TIA to generate the statistical distribution of the uncorrelated sum. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) representing count probability as a function of detection threshold is computed, and the CDF model fit to empirical false count data. It is found that only k=0 McIntyre distributions fit the empirically measured CDF at high detection threshold, and that false count rate drops faster than photon count rate as detection threshold is raised. Once fit to empirical false count data, the model predicts the improvement of the false count rate to be expected from reductions in TIA noise and APD dark current. Improvement by at least three orders of magnitude is thought feasible with further manufacturing development and a capacitive-feedback TIA (CTIA).

Effects of Droplet Size on Intrusion of Sub-Surface Oil Spills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Eric; Chan, Godine; Wang, Dayang

2014-11-01

We explore effects of droplet size on droplet intrusion and transport in sub-surface oil spills. Negatively buoyant glass beads released continuously to a stratified ambient simulate oil droplets in a rising multiphase plume, and distributions of settled beads are used to infer signatures of surfacing oil. Initial tests used quiescent conditions, while ongoing tests simulate currents by towing the source and a bottom sled. Without current, deposited beads have a Gaussian distribution, with variance increasing with decreasing particle size. Distributions agree with a model assuming first order particle loss from an intrusion layer of constant thickness, and empirically determined flow rate. With current, deposited beads display a parabolic distribution similar to that expected from a source in uniform flow; we are currently comparing observed distributions with similar analytical models. Because chemical dispersants have been used to reduce oil droplet size, our study provides one measure of their effectiveness. Results are applied to conditions from the `Deep Spill' field experiment, and the recent Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and are being used to provide ``inner boundary conditions'' for subsequent far field modeling of these events. This research was made possible by grants from Chevron Energy Technology Co., through the Chevron-MITEI University Partnership Program, and BP/The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative, GISR.

Simulation of Electromigration Based on Resistor Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrinos, Anthony John

A two dimensional computer simulation of electromigration based on resistor networks was designed and implemented. The model utilizes a realistic grain structure generated by the Monte Carlo method and takes specific account of the local effects through which electromigration damage progresses. The dynamic evolution of the simulated thin film is governed by the local current and temperature distributions. The current distribution is calculated by superimposing a two dimensional electrical network on the lattice whose nodes correspond to the particles in the lattice and the branches to interparticle bonds. Current is assumed to flow from site to site via nearest neighbor bonds. The current distribution problem is solved by applying Kirchhoff's rules on the resulting electrical network. The calculation of the temperature distribution in the lattice proceeds by discretizing the partial differential equation for heat conduction, with appropriate material parameters chosen for the lattice and its defects. SEReNe (for Simulation of Electromigration using Resistor Networks) was tested by applying it to common situations arising in experiments with real films with satisfactory results. Specifically, the model successfully reproduces the expected grain size, line width and bamboo effects, the lognormal failure time distribution and the relationship between current density exponent and current density. It has also been modified to simulate temperature ramp experiments but with mixed, in this case, results.

How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian Tree Sparrows Passer montanus in North America?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Jarnevich, Catherine; Young, Nick; Newman, Greg; Stohlgren, Thomas

2011-01-01

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus, native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. Under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important information for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species.

Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties

PubMed Central

Wiens, John A.; Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.

2009-01-01

As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some “hotspots” of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option. PMID:19822750

A Numerical Model of Seawater Volume and Velocity Dynamic for Marine Currents Power Plant in the Bangka Strait, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rompas, P. T. D.; Taunaumang, H.; Sangari, F. J.

2017-03-01

One of equipment as prime movers in the marine current power plant is turbine. Marine current turbines require a data of marine currents velocity in its design. The objective of this study was to get the velocities distribution of marine currents in the Bangka strait. The method used survey, observation, and measurement in the Bangka strait. The data of seawater density conducted measurement in the Bangka strait. The data of width and depth of the strait collected from the map of Bangka strait and its depth of the sea. Problem solving of the study used a numerical model. The velocities distribution of marine current obtained from a numerical model in the form of numerical program. The results showed that the velocities distribution at seawater column when low and high tide currents which the maximum happened at 0.1 Sv were 0-0.9 and 0-1.0 m/s respectively, while at 0.3 Sv were 0-2.7 and 0-3.0 m/s respectively. The results will be a product in analyzing the potential kinetic energy that used to design profile of the turbines as prime mover for marine currents power plant in the Bangka strait, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Pixel pitch and particle energy influence on the dark current distribution of neutron irradiated CMOS image sensors.

PubMed

Belloir, Jean-Marc; Goiffon, Vincent; Virmontois, Cédric; Raine, Mélanie; Paillet, Philippe; Duhamel, Olivier; Gaillardin, Marc; Molina, Romain; Magnan, Pierre; Gilard, Olivier

2016-02-22

The dark current produced by neutron irradiation in CMOS Image Sensors (CIS) is investigated. Several CIS with different photodiode types and pixel pitches are irradiated with various neutron energies and fluences to study the influence of each of these optical detector and irradiation parameters on the dark current distribution. An empirical model is tested on the experimental data and validated on all the irradiated optical imagers. This model is able to describe all the presented dark current distributions with no parameter variation for neutron energies of 14 MeV or higher, regardless of the optical detector and irradiation characteristics. For energies below 1 MeV, it is shown that a single parameter has to be adjusted because of the lower mean damage energy per nuclear interaction. This model and these conclusions can be transposed to any silicon based solid-state optical imagers such as CIS or Charged Coupled Devices (CCD). This work can also be used when designing an optical imager instrument, to anticipate the dark current increase or to choose a mitigation technique.

Description of bipolar charge transport in polyethylene using a fluid model with a constant mobility: model prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeRoy, S.; Segur, P.; Teyssedre, G.; Laurent, C.

2004-01-01

We present a conduction model aimed at describing bipolar transport and space charge phenomena in low density polyethylene under dc stress. In the first part we recall the basic requirements for the description of charge transport and charge storage in disordered media with emphasis on the case of polyethylene. A quick review of available conduction models is presented and our approach is compared with these models. Then, the bases of the model are described and related assumptions are discussed. Finally, results on external current, trapped and free space charge distributions, field distribution and recombination rate are presented and discussed, considering a constant dc voltage, a step-increase of the voltage, and a polarization-depolarization protocol for the applied voltage. It is shown that the model is able to describe the general features reported for external current, electroluminescence and charge distribution in polyethylene.

The Effects of Rater Severity and Rater Distribution on Examinees' Ability Estimation for Constructed-Response Items. Research Report. ETS RR-13-23

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Zhen; Yao, Lihua

2013-01-01

The current study used simulated data to investigate the properties of a newly proposed method (Yao's rater model) for modeling rater severity and its distribution under different conditions. Our study examined the effects of rater severity, distributions of rater severity, the difference between item response theory (IRT) models with rater effect…

Manual of phosphoric acid fuel cell stack three-dimensional model and computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, C. Y.; Alkasab, K. A.

1984-01-01

A detailed distributed mathematical model of phosphoric acid fuel cell stack have been developed, with the FORTRAN computer program, for analyzing the temperature distribution in the stack and the associated current density distribution on the cell plates. Energy, mass, and electrochemical analyses in the stack were combined to develop the model. Several reasonable assumptions were made to solve this mathematical model by means of the finite differences numerical method.

Reduced Current Spread by Concentric Electrodes in Transcranial Electrical Stimulation (tES).

PubMed

Bortoletto, M; Rodella, C; Salvador, R; Miranda, P C; Miniussi, C

2016-01-01

We propose the use of a new montage for transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), called concentric electrodes tDCS (CE-tDCS), involving two concentric round electrodes that may improve stimulation focality. To test efficacy and focality of CE-tDCS, we modelled the current distribution and tested physiological effects on cortical excitability. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) from first dorsal interosseous (FDI) and abductor digiti minimi (ADM) were recorded before and after the delivery of anodal, cathodal and sham stimulation on the FDI hotspot for 10 minutes. MEP amplitude of FDI increased after anodal-tDCS and decreased after cathodal-tDCS, supporting the efficacy of CE-tDCS in modulating cortical excitability. Moreover, modelled current distribution and no significant effects of stimulation on MEP amplitude of ADM suggest high focality of CE-tDCS. CE-tDCS may allow a better control of current distribution and may represent a novel tool for applying tDCS and other transcranial current stimulation approaches. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling of photocurrent and lag signals in amorphous selenium x-ray detectors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siddiquee, Sinchita; Kabir, M. Z., E-mail: kabir@encs.concordia.ca

2015-07-15

A mathematical model for transient photocurrent and lag signal in x-ray imaging detectors has been developed by considering charge carrier trapping and detrapping in the energy distributed defect states under exponentially distributed carrier generation across the photoconductor. The model for the transient and steady-state carrier distributions and hence the photocurrent has been developed by solving the carrier continuity equation for both holes and electrons. The residual (commonly known as lag signal) current is modeled by solving the trapping rate equations considering the thermal release and trap filling effects. The model is applied to amorphous selenium (a-Se) detectors for both chestmore » radiography and mammography. The authors analyze the dependence of the residual current on various factors, such as x-ray exposure, applied electric field, and temperature. The electron trapping and detrapping mostly determines the residual current in a-Se detectors. The lag signal is more prominent in chest radiographic detector than in mammographic detectors. The model calculations are compared with the published experimental data and show a very good agreement.« less

A New Multivariate Approach in Generating Ensemble Meteorological Forcings for Hydrological Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Producing reliable and accurate hydrologic ensemble forecasts are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model structure, and model parameters. Producing reliable and skillful precipitation ensemble forecasts is one approach to reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications. Currently, National Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal ranges. It is proven that raw products from NWP models are biased in mean and spread. Given the above state, there is a need for methods that are able to generate reliable ensemble forecasts for hydrological applications. One of the common techniques is to apply statistical procedures in order to generate ensemble forecast from NWP-generated single-value forecasts. The procedure is based on the bivariate probability distribution between the observation and single-value precipitation forecast. However, one of the assumptions of the current method is fitting Gaussian distribution to the marginal distributions of observed and modeled climate variable. Here, we have described and evaluated a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop an ensemble precipitation forecast from the conditional distribution of single-value precipitation forecasts. Copula functions are known as the multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are presented as an alternative procedure in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are capable of modeling the joint distribution of two variables with any level of correlation and dependency. This study is conducted over a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin in USA using the monthly precipitation forecasts from Climate Forecast System (CFS) with 0.5x0.5 Deg. spatial resolution to reproduce the observations. The verification is conducted on a different period and the superiority of the procedure is compared with Ensemble Pre-Processor approach currently used by National Weather Service River Forecast Centers in USA.

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

PubMed

Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

2017-11-15

Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO 2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel Using Input-Output Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

Distribution Model could be used to replace the current seven-step Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel process with a single step, allowing for less complex and...wide extension of the Bulk Fuels Distribution Model could be used to replace the current seven-step Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel process with a single...ABBREVIATIONS AEM Atlantic, Europe, and the Mediterranean AOAs Analysis of Alternatives DAG Defense Acquisition Guidebook DAU Defense Acquisition University

Superstatistics analysis of the ion current distribution function: Met3PbCl influence study.

PubMed

Miśkiewicz, Janusz; Trela, Zenon; Przestalski, Stanisław; Karcz, Waldemar

2010-09-01

A novel analysis of ion current time series is proposed. It is shown that higher (second, third and fourth) statistical moments of the ion current probability distribution function (PDF) can yield new information about ion channel properties. The method is illustrated on a two-state model where the PDF of the compound states are given by normal distributions. The proposed method was applied to the analysis of the SV cation channels of vacuolar membrane of Beta vulgaris and the influence of trimethyllead chloride (Met(3)PbCl) on the ion current probability distribution. Ion currents were measured by patch-clamp technique. It was shown that Met(3)PbCl influences the variance of the open-state ion current but does not alter the PDF of the closed-state ion current. Incorporation of higher statistical moments into the standard investigation of ion channel properties is proposed.

Preliminary results concerning the simulation of beam profiles from extracted ion current distributions for mini-STRIKE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agostinetti, P., E-mail: piero.agostinetti@igi.cnr.it; Serianni, G.; Veltri, P.

The Radio Frequency (RF) negative hydrogen ion source prototype has been chosen for the ITER neutral beam injectors due to its optimal performances and easier maintenance demonstrated at Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching in hydrogen and deuterium. One of the key information to better understand the operating behavior of the RF ion sources is the extracted negative ion current density distribution. This distribution—influenced by several factors like source geometry, particle drifts inside the source, cesium distribution, and layout of cesium ovens—is not straightforward to be evaluated. The main outcome of the present contribution is the development of a minimization method tomore » estimate the extracted current distribution using the footprint of the beam recorded with mini-STRIKE (Short-Time Retractable Instrumented Kalorimeter). To accomplish this, a series of four computational models have been set up, where the output of a model is the input of the following one. These models compute the optics of the ion beam, evaluate the distribution of the heat deposited on the mini-STRIKE diagnostic calorimeter, and finally give an estimate of the temperature distribution on the back of mini-STRIKE. Several iterations with different extracted current profiles are necessary to give an estimate of the profile most compatible with the experimental data. A first test of the application of the method to the BAvarian Test Machine for Negative ions beam is given.« less

Simulator of Non-homogenous Alumina and Current Distribution in an Aluminum Electrolysis Cell to Predict Low-Voltage Anode Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dion, Lukas; Kiss, László I.; Poncsák, Sándor; Lagacé, Charles-Luc

2018-04-01

Perfluorocarbons are important contributors to aluminum production greenhouse gas inventories. Tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane are produced in the electrolysis process when a harmful event called anode effect occurs in the cell. This incident is strongly related to the lack of alumina and the current distribution in the cell and can be classified into two categories: high-voltage and low-voltage anode effects. The latter is hard to detect during the normal electrolysis process and, therefore, new tools are necessary to predict this event and minimize its occurrence. This paper discusses a new approach to model the alumina distribution behavior in an electrolysis cell by dividing the electrolytic bath into non-homogenous concentration zones using discrete elements. The different mechanisms related to the alumina distribution are discussed in detail. Moreover, with a detailed electrical model, it is possible to calculate the current distribution among the different anodic assemblies. With this information, the model can evaluate if low-voltage emissions are likely to be present under the simulated conditions. Using the simulator will help the understanding of the role of the alumina distribution which, in turn, will improve the cell energy consumption and stability while reducing the occurrence of high- and low-voltage anode effects.

Multiscale modeling of localized resistive heating in nanocrystalline metals subjected to electropulsing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jingyi; Wang, G.-X.; Dong, Yalin; Ye, Chang

2017-08-01

Many electrically assisted processes have been reported to induce changes in microstructure and metal plasticity. To understand the physics-based mechanisms behind these interesting phenomena, however, requires an understanding of the interaction between the electric current and heterogeneous microstructure. In this work, multiscale modeling of the electric current flow in a nanocrystalline material is reported. The cellular automata method was used to track the nanoscale grain boundaries in the matrix. Maxwell's electromagnetic equations were solved to obtain the electrical potential distribution at the macro scale. Kirchhoff's circuit equation was solved to obtain the electric current flow at the micro/nano scale. The electric current distribution at two representative locations was investigated. A significant electric current concentration was observed near the grain boundaries, particularly near the triple junctions. This higher localized electric current leads to localized resistive heating near the grain boundaries. The electric current distribution could be used to obtain critical information such as localized resistive heating rate and extra system free energy, which are critical for explaining many interesting phenomena, including microstructure evolution and plasticity enhancement in many electrically assisted processes.

Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Martin A. Spetich; Jacob S. Fraser

2018-01-01

Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are notwell represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts.We investigate how species biological...

Mapping the current and potential distribution of red spruce in Virginia: implications for the restoration of degraded high elevation habitat

Treesearch

Heather Griscom; Helmut Kraenzle; Zachary. Bortolot

2010-01-01

The objective of our project is to create a habitat suitability model to predict potential and future red spruce forest distributions. This model will be used to better understand the influence of climate change on red spruce distribution and to help guide forest restoration efforts.

Characterization of YBa2Cu3O7, including critical current density Jc, by trapped magnetic field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, In-Gann; Liu, Jianxiong; Weinstein, Roy; Lau, Kwong

1992-01-01

Spatial distributions of persistent magnetic field trapped by sintered and melt-textured ceramic-type high-temperature superconductor (HTS) samples have been studied. The trapped field can be reproduced by a model of the current consisting of two components: (1) a surface current Js and (2) a uniform volume current Jv. This Js + Jv model gives a satisfactory account of the spatial distribution of the magnetic field trapped by different types of HTS samples. The magnetic moment can be calculated, based on the Js + Jv model, and the result agrees well with that measured by standard vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM). As a consequence, Jc predicted by VSM methods agrees with Jc predicted from the Js + Jv model. The field mapping method described is also useful to reveal the granular structure of large HTS samples and regions of weak links.

The harmonic impact of electric vehicle battery charging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staats, Preston Trent

The potential widespread introduction of the electric vehicle (EV) presents both opportunities and challenges to the power systems engineers who will be required to supply power to EV batteries. One of the challenges associated with EV battery charging comes from the potentially high harmonic currents associated with the conversion of ac power system voltages to dc EV battery voltages. Harmonic currents lead to increased losses in distribution circuits and reduced life expectancy of such power distribution components as capacitors and transformers. Harmonic current injections also cause harmonic voltages on power distribution networks. These distorted voltages can affect power system loads and specific standards exist regulating acceptable voltage distortion. This dissertation develops and presents the theory required to evaluate the electric vehicle battery charger as a harmonic distorting load and its possible harmonic impact on various aspects of power distribution systems. The work begins by developing a method for evaluating the net harmonic current injection of a large collection of EV battery chargers which accounts for variation in the start-time and initial battery state-of-charge between individual chargers. Next, this method is analyzed to evaluate the effect of input parameter variation on the net harmonic currents predicted by the model. We then turn to an evaluation of the impact of EV charger harmonic currents on power distribution systems, first evaluating the impact of these currents on a substation transformer and then on power distribution system harmonic voltages. The method presented accounts for the uncertainty in EV harmonic current injections by modeling the start-time and initial battery state-of-charge (SOC) of an individual EV battery charger as random variables. Thus, the net harmonic current, and distribution system harmonic voltages are formulated in a stochastic framework. Results indicate that considering variation in start-time and SOC leads to reduced estimates of harmonic current injection when compared to more traditional methods that do not account for variation. Evaluation of power distribution system harmonic voltages suggests that for any power distribution network there is a definite threshold penetration of EVs, below which the total harmonic distortion of voltage exceeds 5% at an insignificant number of buses. Thus, most existing distribution systems will probably be able to accommodate the early introduction of EV battery charging without widespread harmonic voltage problems.

Electron distribution functions in electric field environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudolph, Terence H.

1991-01-01

The amount of current carried by an electric discharge in its early stages of growth is strongly dependent on its geometrical shape. Discharges with a large number of branches, each funnelling current to a common stem, tend to carry more current than those with fewer branches. The fractal character of typical discharges was simulated using stochastic models based on solutions of the Laplace equation. Extension of these models requires the use of electron distribution functions to describe the behavior of electrons in the undisturbed medium ahead of the discharge. These electrons, interacting with the electric field, determine the propagation of branches in the discharge and the way in which further branching occurs. The first phase in the extension of the referenced models , the calculation of simple electron distribution functions in an air/electric field medium, is discussed. Two techniques are investigated: (1) the solution of the Boltzmann equation in homogeneous, steady state environments, and (2) the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Distribution functions calculated from both techniques are illustrated. Advantages and disadvantages of each technique are discussed.

Power flow analysis and optimal locations of resistive type superconducting fault current limiters.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiuchang; Ruiz, Harold S; Geng, Jianzhao; Shen, Boyang; Fu, Lin; Zhang, Heng; Coombs, Tim A

2016-01-01

Based on conventional approaches for the integration of resistive-type superconducting fault current limiters (SFCLs) on electric distribution networks, SFCL models largely rely on the insertion of a step or exponential resistance that is determined by a predefined quenching time. In this paper, we expand the scope of the aforementioned models by considering the actual behaviour of an SFCL in terms of the temperature dynamic power-law dependence between the electrical field and the current density, characteristic of high temperature superconductors. Our results are compared to the step-resistance models for the sake of discussion and clarity of the conclusions. Both SFCL models were integrated into a power system model built based on the UK power standard, to study the impact of these protection strategies on the performance of the overall electricity network. As a representative renewable energy source, a 90 MVA wind farm was considered for the simulations. Three fault conditions were simulated, and the figures for the fault current reduction predicted by both fault current limiting models have been compared in terms of multiple current measuring points and allocation strategies. Consequently, we have shown that the incorporation of the E - J characteristics and thermal properties of the superconductor at the simulation level of electric power systems, is crucial for estimations of reliability and determining the optimal locations of resistive type SFCLs in distributed power networks. Our results may help decision making by distribution network operators regarding investment and promotion of SFCL technologies, as it is possible to determine the maximum number of SFCLs necessary to protect against different fault conditions at multiple locations.

Using Dirichlet Processes for Modeling Heterogeneous Treatment Effects across Sites

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miratrix, Luke; Feller, Avi; Pillai, Natesh; Pati, Debdeep

2016-01-01

Modeling the distribution of site level effects is an important problem, but it is also an incredibly difficult one. Current methods rely on distributional assumptions in multilevel models for estimation. There it is hoped that the partial pooling of site level estimates with overall estimates, designed to take into account individual variation as…

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand.

PubMed

Suwannatrai, A; Pratumchart, K; Suwannatrai, K; Thinkhamrop, K; Chaiyos, J; Kim, C S; Suwanweerakamtorn, R; Boonmars, T; Wongsaroj, T; Sripa, B

2017-01-01

Global climate change is now regarded as imposing a significant threat of enhancing transmission of parasitic diseases. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was used to explore how projected climate change could affect the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand. A range of climate variables was used: the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) climate change model and also the IPCC scenarios A2a for 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2009 and 2014 were obtained from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The MaxEnt model performed better than random for O. viverrini with training AUC values greater than 0.8 under current and future climatic conditions. The current distribution of O. viverrini is significantly affected by precipitation and minimum temperature. According to current conditions, parts of Thailand climatically suitable for O. viverrini are mostly in the northeast and north, but the parasite is largely absent from southern Thailand. Under future climate change scenarios, the distribution of O. viverrini in 2050 should be significantly affected by precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, whereas in 2070, significant factors are likely to be precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum, and minimum temperatures. Maps of predicted future distribution revealed a drastic decrease in presence of O. viverrini in the northeast region. The information gained from this study should be a useful reference for implementing long-term prevention and control strategies for O. viverrini in Thailand.

Non-invasive brain stimulation and computational models in post-stroke aphasic patients: single session of transcranial magnetic stimulation and transcranial direct current stimulation. A randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Santos, Michele Devido Dos; Cavenaghi, Vitor Breseghello; Mac-Kay, Ana Paula Machado Goyano; Serafim, Vitor; Venturi, Alexandre; Truong, Dennis Quangvinh; Huang, Yu; Boggio, Paulo Sérgio; Fregni, Felipe; Simis, Marcel; Bikson, Marom; Gagliardi, Rubens José

2017-01-01

Patients undergoing the same neuromodulation protocol may present different responses. Computational models may help in understanding such differences. The aims of this study were, firstly, to compare the performance of aphasic patients in naming tasks before and after one session of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and sham, and analyze the results between these neuromodulation techniques; and secondly, through computational model on the cortex and surrounding tissues, to assess current flow distribution and responses among patients who received tDCS and presented different levels of results from naming tasks. Prospective, descriptive, qualitative and quantitative, double blind, randomized and placebo-controlled study conducted at Faculdade de Ciências Médicas da Santa Casa de São Paulo. Patients with aphasia received one session of tDCS, TMS or sham stimulation. The time taken to name pictures and the response time were evaluated before and after neuromodulation. Selected patients from the first intervention underwent a computational model stimulation procedure that simulated tDCS. The results did not indicate any statistically significant differences from before to after the stimulation.The computational models showed different current flow distributions. The present study did not show any statistically significant difference between tDCS, TMS and sham stimulation regarding naming tasks. The patients'responses to the computational model showed different patterns of current distribution.

Ring Current Pressure Estimation withRAM-SCB using Data Assimilation and VanAllen Probe Flux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godinez, H. C.; Yu, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Larsen, B.; Jordanova, V.

2015-12-01

Capturing and subsequently modeling the influence of tail plasma injections on the inner magnetosphere is particularly important for understanding the formation and evolution of Earth's ring current. In this study, the ring current distribution is estimated with the Ring Current-Atmosphere Interactions Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) using, for the first time, data assimilation techniques and particle flux data from the Van Allen Probes. The state of the ring current within the RAM-SCB is corrected via an ensemble based data assimilation technique by using proton flux from one of the Van Allen Probes, to capture the enhancement of ring current following an isolated substorm event on July 18 2013. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of the ring current particle distributions in the RAM-SCB model, leading to better agreement with observations. This newly implemented data assimilation technique in the global modeling of the ring current thus provides a promising tool to better characterize the effect of substorm injections in the near-Earth regions. The work is part of the Space Hazards Induced near Earth by Large, Dynamic Storms (SHIELDS) project in Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2014-12-01

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

Kinetic analysis of spin current contribution to spectrum of electromagnetic waves in spin-1/2 plasma. I. Dielectric permeability tensor for magnetized plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, Pavel A.

2017-02-01

The dielectric permeability tensor for spin polarized plasmas is derived in terms of the spin-1/2 quantum kinetic model in six-dimensional phase space. Expressions for the distribution function and spin distribution function are derived in linear approximations on the path of dielectric permeability tensor derivation. The dielectric permeability tensor is derived for the spin-polarized degenerate electron gas. It is also discussed at the finite temperature regime, where the equilibrium distribution function is presented by the spin-polarized Fermi-Dirac distribution. Consideration of the spin-polarized equilibrium states opens possibilities for the kinetic modeling of the thermal spin current contribution in the plasma dynamics.

Electrochemical characterization of high frequency stimulation electrodes: role of electrode material and stimulation parameters on electrode polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazavi, Atefeh; Cogan, Stuart F.

2018-06-01

Objective. With recent interest in kilohertz frequency electrical stimulation for nerve conduction block, understanding the electrochemistry and role of electrode material is important for assessing the safety of these stimulus protocols. Here we describe an approach to determining electrode polarization in response to continuous kilohertz frequency sinusoidal current waveforms. We have also investigated platinum, iridium oxide, and titanium nitride as coatings for high frequency electrodes. The current density distribution at 50 kHz at the electrode–electrolyte interface was also modeled to demonstrate the importance of the primary current distribution in supporting charge injection at high frequencies. Approach. We determined electrode polarization in response to sinusoidal currents with frequencies in the 1–50 kHz range and current amplitudes from 100 to 500 µA and 1–5 mA, depending on the electrode area. The current density distribution at the interface was modeled using the finite element method (FEM). Main results. At low frequencies, 1–5 kHz, polarization on the platinum electrode was significant, exceeding the water oxidation potential for high amplitude (5 mA) waveforms. At frequencies of 20 kHz or higher, the polarization was less than 300 mV from the electrode open circuit potential. The choice of electrode material did not play a significant role in electrode polarization at frequencies higher than 10 kHz. The current density distribution modeled at 50 kHz is non-uniform and this non-uniformity persists throughout charge delivery. Significance. At high frequencies (>10 kHz) electrode double-layer charging is the principal mechanism of charge-injection and selection of the electrode material has little effect on polarization, with platinum, iridium oxide, and titanium nitride exhibiting similar behavior. High frequency stimulation is dominated by a highly nonuniform primary current distribution.

MODIS imagery improves pest risk assessment: A case study of wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lestina, Jordan; Cook, Maxwell; Kumar, Sunil; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Ode, Paul J.; Peirs, Frank

2016-01-01

Wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus Norton, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) has long been a significant insect pest of spring, and more recently, winter wheat in the northern Great Plains. Wheat stem sawfly was first observed infesting winter wheat in Colorado in 2010 and, subsequently, has spread rapidly throughout wheat production regions of the state. Here, we used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to generate habitat suitability maps in order to predict the risk of crop damage as this species spreads throughout the winter wheat-growing regions of Colorado. We identified environmental variables that influence the current distribution of wheat stem sawfly in the state and evaluated whether remotely sensed variables improved model performance. We used presence localities of C. cinctus and climatic, topographic, soils, and normalized difference vegetation index and enhanced vegetation index data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery as environmental variables. All models had high performance in that they were successful in predicting suitable habitat for C. cinctus in its current distribution in eastern Colorado. The enhanced vegetation index for the month of April improved model performance and was identified as a top contributor to MaxEnt model. Soil clay percent at 0–5 cm, temperature seasonality, and precipitation seasonality were also associated with C. cinctus distribution in Colorado. The improved model performance resulting from integrating vegetation indices in our study demonstrates the ability of remote sensing technologies to enhance species distribution modeling. These risk maps generated can assist managers in planning control measures for current infestations and assess the future risk of C. cinctus establishment in currently uninfested regions.

Mapping the distribution of malaria: current approaches and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Leah R.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; McNally, Amy; Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

2015-01-01

Mapping the distribution of malaria has received substantial attention because the disease is a major source of illness and mortality in humans, especially in developing countries. It also has a defined temporal and spatial distribution. The distribution of malaria is most influenced by its mosquito vector, which is sensitive to extrinsic environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature. Temperature also affects the development rate of the malaria parasite in the mosquito. Here, we review the range of approaches used to model the distribution of malaria, from spatially explicit to implicit, mechanistic to correlative. Although current methods have significantly improved our understanding of the factors influencing malaria transmission, significant gaps remain, particularly in incorporating nonlinear responses to temperature and temperature variability. We highlight new methods to tackle these gaps and to integrate new data with models.

A Dynamic Model of Mercury's Magnetospheric Magnetic Field

PubMed Central

Johnson, Catherine L.; Philpott, Lydia; Tsyganenko, Nikolai A.; Anderson, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Mercury's solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field environment is highly dynamic, and variations in these external conditions directly control the current systems and magnetic fields inside the planetary magnetosphere. We update our previous static model of Mercury's magnetic field by incorporating variations in the magnetospheric current systems, parameterized as functions of Mercury's heliocentric distance and magnetic activity. The new, dynamic model reproduces the location of the magnetopause current system as a function of systematic pressure variations encountered during Mercury's eccentric orbit, as well as the increase in the cross‐tail current intensity with increasing magnetic activity. Despite the enhancements in the external field parameterization, the residuals between the observed and modeled magnetic field inside the magnetosphere indicate that the dynamic model achieves only a modest overall improvement over the previous static model. The spatial distribution of the residuals in the magnetic field components shows substantial improvement of the model accuracy near the dayside magnetopause. Elsewhere, the large‐scale distribution of the residuals is similar to those of the static model. This result implies either that magnetic activity varies much faster than can be determined from the spacecraft's passage through the magnetosphere or that the residual fields are due to additional external current systems not represented in the model or both. Birkeland currents flowing along magnetic field lines between the magnetosphere and planetary high‐latitude regions have been identified as one such contribution. PMID:29263560

A Kinetic Study of Microwave Start-up of Tokamak Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

du Toit, E. J.; O'Brien, M. R.; Vann, R. G. L.

2017-07-01

A kinetic model for studying the time evolution of the distribution function for microwave startup is presented. The model for the distribution function is two dimensional in momentum space, but, for simplicity and rapid calculations, has no spatial dependence. Experiments on the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak have shown that the plasma current is carried mainly by electrons with energies greater than 70 keV, and effects thought to be important in these experiments are included, i.e. particle sources, orbital losses, the loop voltage and microwave heating, with suitable volume averaging where necessary to give terms independent of spatial dimensions. The model predicts current carried by electrons with the same energies as inferred from the experiments, though the current drive efficiency is smaller.

Quasielastic neutrino charged-current scattering off 12C: Effects of the meson exchange currents and large nucleon axial mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butkevich, A. V.; Luchuk, S. V.

2018-04-01

The quasielastic scattering of muon neutrino and electrons on a carbon target are analyzed using the relativistic distorted-wave impulse approximation (RDWIA). We also evaluate the contribution of the two-particle and two-hole meson exchange current (2 p -2 h MEC) to electroweak response functions. The nuclear model dependence of the (anti)neutrino cross sections is studied within the RDWIA+MEC approach and RDWIA model with the large nucleon axial mass. It is shown that the results for the squared momentum transfer distribution d σ /d Q2 and for invariant mass of the final hadronic system distribution d σ /d W obtained within these models are substantially different.

Understanding Peripheral Bat Populations Using Maximum-Entropy Suitability Modeling

PubMed Central

Barnhart, Paul R.; Gillam, Erin H.

2016-01-01

Individuals along the periphery of a species distribution regularly encounter more challenging environmental and climatic conditions than conspecifics near the center of the distribution. Due to these potential constraints, individuals in peripheral margins are expected to change their habitat and behavioral characteristics. Managers typically rely on species distribution maps when developing adequate management practices. However, these range maps are often too simplistic and do not provide adequate information as to what fine-scale biotic and abiotic factors are driving a species occurrence. In the last decade, habitat suitability modelling has become widely used as a substitute for simplistic distribution mapping which allows regional managers the ability to fine-tune management resources. The objectives of this study were to use maximum-entropy modeling to produce habitat suitability models for seven species that have a peripheral margin intersecting the state of North Dakota, according to current IUCN distributions, and determine the vegetative and climatic characteristics driving these models. Mistnetting resulted in the documentation of five species outside the IUCN distribution in North Dakota, indicating that current range maps for North Dakota, and potentially the northern Great Plains, are in need of update. Maximum-entropy modeling showed that temperature and not precipitation were the variables most important for model production. This fine-scale result highlights the importance of habitat suitability modelling as this information cannot be extracted from distribution maps. Our results provide baseline information needed for future research about how and why individuals residing in the peripheral margins of a species’ distribution may show marked differences in habitat use as a result of urban expansion, habitat loss, and climate change compared to more centralized populations. PMID:27935936

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; William D. Dijak; Jacob Fraser; Wen J. Wang; Brice Hanberry; Hong He; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Leslie Brandt; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Context. Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process...

Marginal regression approach for additive hazards models with clustered current status data.

PubMed

Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan

2014-01-15

Current status data arise naturally from tumorigenicity experiments, epidemiology studies, biomedicine, econometrics and demographic and sociology studies. Moreover, clustered current status data may occur with animals from the same litter in tumorigenicity experiments or with subjects from the same family in epidemiology studies. Because the only information extracted from current status data is whether the survival times are before or after the monitoring or censoring times, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of survival function converges at a rate of n(1/3) to a complicated limiting distribution. Hence, semiparametric regression models such as the additive hazards model have been extended for independent current status data to derive the test statistics, whose distributions converge at a rate of n(1/2) , for testing the regression parameters. However, a straightforward application of these statistical methods to clustered current status data is not appropriate because intracluster correlation needs to be taken into account. Therefore, this paper proposes two estimating functions for estimating the parameters in the additive hazards model for clustered current status data. The comparative results from simulation studies are presented, and the application of the proposed estimating functions to one real data set is illustrated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling the hook depth distribution of pelagic longlining in the equatorial area of Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Liming; Li, Jie; Gao, Panfeng; Zhou, Ji; Xu, Liuxiong

2012-12-01

A survey was conducted in the equatorial area of Indian Ocean for a better understanding of the dynamics of hook depth distribution of pelagic longline fishery. We determined the relationship between hook depth and vertical shear of current coefficiency, wind speed, hook position code, sine of wind angle, sine of angle of attack and weight of messenger weight. We identified the hook depth models by the analysis of covariance with a general linear model. The results showed that the wind effect on the hook depth can be ignored from October to November in the survey area; the surface current effect on the hook depth can be ignored; the equatorial undercurrent is the key factor for the hook depth in Indian Ocean; and there is a negative correlation between the hook depth and vertical shear of current and angle of attack. It was also found that the deeper the hook was set, the higher hook depth shoaling was. The proposed model improves the accuracy of the prediction of hook depth, which can be used to estimate the vertical distribution of pelagic fish in water column.

Ionospheric and Birkeland current distributions inferred from the MAGSAT magnetometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zanetti, L. J.; Potemra, T. A.; Baumjohann, W.

1983-01-01

Ionospheric and field-aligned sheet current density distributions are presently inferred by means of MAGSAT vector magnetometer data, together with an accurate magnetic field model. By comparing Hall current densities inferred from the MAGSAT data and those inferred from simultaneously recorded ground based data acquired by the Scandinavian magnetometer array, it is determined that the former have previously been underestimated due to high damping of magnetic variations with high spatial wave numbers between the ionosphere and the MAGSAT orbit. Among important results of this study is noted the fact that the Birkeland and electrojet current systems are colocated. The analyses have shown a tendency for triangular rather than constant electrojet current distributions as a function of latitude, consistent with the statistical, uniform regions 1 and 2 Birkeland current patterns.

Approaches to quantifying long-term continental shelf sediment transport with an example from the Northern California STRESS mid-shelf site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Courtney K.; Wiberg, Patricia L.

1997-09-01

Modeling shelf sediment transport rates and bed reworking depths is problematic when the wave and current forcing conditions are not precisely known, as is usually the case when long-term sedimentation patterns are of interest. Two approaches to modeling sediment transport under such circumstances are considered. The first relies on measured or simulated time series of flow conditions to drive model calculations. The second approach uses as model input probability distribution functions of bottom boundary layer flow conditions developed from wave and current measurements. Sediment transport rates, frequency of bed resuspension by waves and currents, and bed reworking calculated using the two methods are compared at the mid-shelf STRESS (Sediment TRansport on Shelves and Slopes) site on the northern California continental shelf. Current, wave and resuspension measurements at the site are used to generate model inputs and test model results. An 11-year record of bottom wave orbital velocity, calculated from surface wave spectra measured by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) Buoy 46013 and verified against bottom tripod measurements, is used to characterize the frequency and duration of wave-driven transport events and to estimate the joint probability distribution of wave orbital velocity and period. A 109-day record of hourly current measurements 10 m above bottom is used to estimate the probability distribution of bottom boundary layer current velocity at this site and to develop an auto-regressive model to simulate current velocities for times when direct measurements of currents are not available. Frequency of transport, the maximum volume of suspended sediment, and average flux calculated using measured wave and simulated current time series agree well with values calculated using measured time series. A probabilistic approach is more amenable to calculations over time scales longer than existing wave records, but it tends to underestimate net transport because it does not capture the episodic nature of transport events. Both methods enable estimates to be made of the uncertainty in transport quantities that arise from an incomplete knowledge of the specific timing of wave and current conditions. 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd

Investigation of the effects of external current systems on the MAGSAT data utilizing grid cell modeling techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klumpar, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The feasibility of modeling magnetic fields due to certain electrical currents flowing in the Earth's ionosphere and magnetosphere was investigated. A method was devised to carry out forward modeling of the magnetic perturbations that arise from space currents. The procedure utilizes a linear current element representation of the distributed electrical currents. The finite thickness elements are combined into loops which are in turn combined into cells having their base in the ionosphere. In addition to the extensive field modeling, additional software was developed for the reduction and analysis of the MAGSAT data in terms of the external current effects. Direct comparisons between the models and the MAGSAT data are possible.

Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

W. and Fahlman, A. (2009). Could beaked whales get the bends?. Effect of diving behaviour and physiology on modelled gas exchange for three species...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...to update a current gas dynamics model with recently acquired data for respiratory compliance (P-V), and body compartment size estimates in

Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation

PubMed Central

Komac, Benjamin; Esteban, Pere; Trapero, Laura; Caritg, Roger

2016-01-01

Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species’s distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9–70.1 km2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species’ plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions. PMID:26824847

Effects of energetic particle phase space modifications by instabilities on integrated modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Fredrickson, E. D.; Gorelenkov, N. N.; White, R. B.

2016-11-01

Tokamak plasmas can feature a large population of energetic particles (EP) from neutral beam injection or fusion reactions. In turn, energetic particles can drive instabilities, which affect the driving EP population leading to a distortion of the original EP distribution function and of quantities that depend on it. The latter include, for example, neutral beam (NB) current drive and plasma heating through EP thermalization. Those effects must be taken into account to enable reliable and quantitative simulations of discharges for present devices as well as predictions for future burning plasmas. Reduced models for EP transport are emerging as an effective tool for long time-scale integrated simulations of tokamak plasmas, possibly including the effects of instabilities on EP dynamics. Available models differ in how EP distribution properties are modified by instabilities, e.g. in terms of gradients in real or phase space. It is therefore crucial to assess to what extent different assumptions in the transport models affect predicted quantities such as EP profile, energy distribution, NB driven current and energy/momentum transfer to the thermal populations. A newly developed kick model, which includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in both real and velocity space, is used in this work to investigate these issues. Coupled to TRANSP simulations, the kick model is used to analyze NB-heated NSTX and DIII-D discharges featuring unstable Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). Results show that instabilities can strongly affect the EP distribution function, and modifications propagate to macroscopic quantities such as NB-driven current profile and NB power transferred to the thermal plasma species. Those important aspects are only qualitatively captured by simpler fast ion transport models that are based on radial diffusion of energetic ions only.

Effects of energetic particle phase space modifications by instabilities on integrated modeling

DOE PAGES

Podesta, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Fredrickson, E. D.; ...

2016-07-22

Tokamak plasmas can feature a large population of energetic particles (EP) from neutral beam injection or fusion reactions. In turn, energetic particles can drive instabilities, which affect the driving EP population leading to a distortion of the original EP distribution function and of quantities that depend on it. The latter include, for example, neutral beam (NB) current drive and plasma heating through EP thermalization. Those effects must be taken into account to enable reliable and quantitative simulations of discharges for present devices as well as predictions for future burning plasmas. Reduced models for EP transport are emerging as an effectivemore » tool for long time-scale integrated simulations of tokamak plasmas, possibly including the effects of instabilities on EP dynamics. Available models differ in how EP distribution properties are modified by instabilities, e.g. in terms of gradients in real or phase space. It is therefore crucial to assess to what extent different assumptions in the transport models affect predicted quantities such as EP profile, energy distribution, NB driven current and energy/momentum transfer to the thermal populations. A newly developed kick model, which includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in both real and velocity space, is used in this work to investigate these issues. Coupled to TRANSP simulations, the kick model is used to analyze NB-heated NSTX and DIII-D discharges featuring unstable Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). Results show that instabilities can strongly affect the EP distribution function, and modifications propagate to macroscopic quantities such as NB-driven current profile and NB power transferred to the thermal plasma species. Furthermore, those important aspects are only qualitatively captured by simpler fast ion transport models that are based on radial diffusion of energetic ions only.« less

Validation of finite element model of transcranial electrical stimulation using scalp potentials: implications for clinical dose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datta, Abhishek; Zhou, Xiang; Su, Yuzhou; Parra, Lucas C.; Bikson, Marom

2013-06-01

Objective. During transcranial electrical stimulation, current passage across the scalp generates voltage across the scalp surface. The goal was to characterize these scalp voltages for the purpose of validating subject-specific finite element method (FEM) models of current flow. Approach. Using a recording electrode array, we mapped skin voltages resulting from low-intensity transcranial electrical stimulation. These voltage recordings were used to compare the predictions obtained from the high-resolution model based on the subject undergoing transcranial stimulation. Main results. Each of the four stimulation electrode configurations tested resulted in a distinct distribution of scalp voltages; these spatial maps were linear with applied current amplitude (0.1 to 1 mA) over low frequencies (1 to 10 Hz). The FEM model accurately predicted the distinct voltage distributions and correlated the induced scalp voltages with current flow through cortex. Significance. Our results provide the first direct model validation for these subject-specific modeling approaches. In addition, the monitoring of scalp voltages may be used to verify electrode placement to increase transcranial electrical stimulation safety and reproducibility.

Pallet use in grocery distribution affects forest resource consumption location: a spatial model of grocery pallet use

Treesearch

R. Bruce Anderson; R. Bruce Anderson

1991-01-01

To assess the impact of grocery pallet production on future hardwood resources, better information is needed on the current use of reusable pallets by the grocery and related products industry. A spatial model of pallet use in the grocery distribution system that identifies the locational aspects of grocery pallet production and distribution, determines how these...

To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

2015-01-01

Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

Electron dynamics in a plasma focus. [electron acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohl, F.; Gary, S. P.; Winters, P. A.

1977-01-01

Results are presented of a numerical integration of the three-dimensional relativistic equations of motion of electrons subject to given electric and magnetic fields deduced from experiments. Fields due to two different models are investigated. For the first model, the fields are those due to a circular distribution of axial current filaments. As the current filaments collapse toward the axis, large azimuthal magnetic and axial electric fields are induced. These fields effectively heat the electrons to a temperature of approximately 8 keV and accelerate electrons within the radius of the filaments to high axial velocities. Similar results are obtained for the current-reduction phase of focus formation. For the second model, the fields are those due to a uniform current distribution. Both the current-reduction and the compression phases were studied. These is little heating or acceleration of electrons during the compression phase because the electrons are tied to the magnetic field. However, during the current-reduction phase, electrons near the axis are accelerated toward the center electrode and reach energies of 100 keV. A criterion is obtained which limits the runaway electron current to about 400 A.

Research in Distributed Real-Time Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, R.

1997-01-01

This document summarizes the progress we have made on our study of issues concerning the schedulability of real-time systems. Our study has produced several results in the scalability issues of distributed real-time systems. In particular, we have used our techniques to resolve schedulability issues in distributed systems with end-to-end requirements. During the next year (1997-98), we propose to extend the current work to address the modeling and workload characterization issues in distributed real-time systems. In particular, we propose to investigate the effect of different workload models and component models on the design and the subsequent performance of distributed real-time systems.

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Waves in Multi-Ion Magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Gallagher, D. L.; Kozyra, J. U.

2006-01-01

The further development of a self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves (Khazanov et al., 2003) is presented In order to adequately take into account wave propagation and refraction in a multi-ion magnetosphere, we explicitly include the ray tracing equations in our previous self-consistent model and use the general form of the wave kinetic equation. This is a major new feature of the present model and, to the best of our knowledge, the ray tracing equations for the first time are explicitly employed on a global magnetospheric scale in order to self-consistently simulate the spatial, temporal, and spectral evolution of the ring current and of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves To demonstrate the effects of EMIC wave propagation and refraction on the wave energy distribution and evolution, we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows. First, owing to the density gradient at the plasmapause, the net wave refraction is suppressed, and He+-mode grows preferably at the plasmapause. This result is in total agreement with previous ray tracing studies and is very clearly found in presented B field spectrograms. Second, comparison of global wave distributions with the results from another ring current model (Kozyra et al., 1997) reveals that this new model provides more intense and more highly plasmapause-organized wave distributions during the May 1998 storm period Finally, it is found that He(+)-mode energy distributions are not Gaussian distributions and most important that wave energy can occupy not only the region of generation, i.e., the region of small wave normal angles, but all wave normal angles, including those to near 90 . The latter is extremely crucial for energy transfer to thermal plasmaspheric electrons by resonant Landau damping and subsequent downward heat transport and excitation of stable auroral red arcs.

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves. 1; Waves in Multi Ion Magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gumayunov, K. V.; Gallagher, D. L.; Kozyra, J. U.

2006-01-01

The further development of a self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves [Khazanov et al., 2003] is presented. In order to adequately take into account the wave propagation and refraction in a multi-ion plasmasphere, we explicitly include the ray tracing equations in our previous self-consistent model and use the general form of the wave kinetic equation. This is a major new feature of the present model and, to the best of our knowledge, the ray tracing equations for the first time are explicitly employed on a global magnetospheric scale in order to self-consistently simulate spatial, temporal, and spectral evolutions of the ring current and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. To demonstrate the effects of EMIC wave propagation and refraction on the EMIC wave energy distributions and evolution we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows. First, due to the density gradient at the plasmapause, the net wave refraction is suppressed, and He(+)-mode grows preferably at plasmapause. This result is in a total agreement with the previous ray tracing studies, and very clear observed in presented B-field spectrograms. Second, comparison the global wave distributions with the results from other ring current model [Kozyra et al., 1997] reveals that our model provides more intense and higher plasmapause organized distributions during the May, 1998 storm period. Finally, the found He(+)-mode energy distributions are not Gaussian distributions, and most important that wave energy can occupy not only the region of generation, i. e. the region of small wave normal angles, but the entire wave normal angle region and even only the region near 90 degrees. The latter is extremely crucial for energy transfer to thermal plasmaspheric electrons by resonant Landau damping, and subsequent downward heat transport and excitation of stable auroral red arcs.

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Laituri, Melinda

2014-01-01

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

Cometary atmospheres: Modeling the spatial distribution of observed neutral radicals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Combi, M. R.

1985-01-01

Progress on modeling the spatial distributions of cometary radicals is described. The Monte Carlo particle-trajectory model was generalized to include the full time dependencies of initial comet expansion velocities, nucleus vaporization rates, photochemical lifetimes and photon emission rates which enter the problem through the comet's changing heliocentric distance and velocity. The effect of multiple collisions in the transition zone from collisional coupling to true free flow were also included. Currently available observations of the spatial distributions of the neutral radicals, as well as the latest available photochemical data were re-evaluated. Preliminary exploratory model results testing the effects of various processes on observable spatial distributions are also discussed.

Computer modeling of inversion layer MOS solar cells and arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, Fat Duen

1991-01-01

A two dimensional numerical model of the inversion layer metal insulator semiconductor (IL/MIS) solar cell is proposed by using the finite element method. The two-dimensional current flow in the device is taken into account in this model. The electrostatic potential distribution, the electron concentration distribution, and the hole concentration distribution for different terminal voltages are simulated. The results of simple calculation are presented. The existing problems for this model are addressed. Future work is proposed. The MIS structures are studied and some of the results are reported.

Electromagnetic field radiation model for lightning strokes to tall structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motoyama, H.; Janischewskyj, W.; Hussein, A.M.

1996-07-01

This paper describes observation and analysis of electromagnetic field radiation from lightning strokes to tall structures. Electromagnetic field waveforms and current waveforms of lightning strokes to the CN Tower have been simultaneously measured since 1991. A new calculation model of electromagnetic field radiation is proposed. The proposed model consists of the lightning current propagation and distribution model and the electromagnetic field radiation model. Electromagnetic fields calculated by the proposed model, based on the observed lightning current at the CN Tower, agree well with the observed fields at 2km north of the tower.

Comparison of four modeling tools for the prediction of potential distribution for non-indigenous weeds in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magarey, Roger; Newton, Leslie; Hong, Seung C.; Takeuchi, Yu; Christie, Dave; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Kohl, Lisa; Damus, Martin; Higgins, Steven I.; Miller, Leah; Castro, Karen; West, Amanda; Hastings, John; Cook, Gericke; Kartesz, John; Koop, Anthony

2018-01-01

This study compares four models for predicting the potential distribution of non-indigenous weed species in the conterminous U.S. The comparison focused on evaluating modeling tools and protocols as currently used for weed risk assessment or for predicting the potential distribution of invasive weeds. We used six weed species (three highly invasive and three less invasive non-indigenous species) that have been established in the U.S. for more than 75 years. The experiment involved providing non-U. S. location data to users familiar with one of the four evaluated techniques, who then developed predictive models that were applied to the United States without knowing the identity of the species or its U.S. distribution. We compared a simple GIS climate matching technique known as Proto3, a simple climate matching tool CLIMEX Match Climates, the correlative model MaxEnt, and a process model known as the Thornley Transport Resistance (TTR) model. Two experienced users ran each modeling tool except TTR, which had one user. Models were trained with global species distribution data excluding any U.S. data, and then were evaluated using the current known U.S. distribution. The influence of weed species identity and modeling tool on prevalence and sensitivity effects was compared using a generalized linear mixed model. Each modeling tool itself had a low statistical significance, while weed species alone accounted for 69.1 and 48.5% of the variance for prevalence and sensitivity, respectively. These results suggest that simple modeling tools might perform as well as complex ones in the case of predicting potential distribution for a weed not yet present in the United States. Considerations of model accuracy should also be balanced with those of reproducibility and ease of use. More important than the choice of modeling tool is the construction of robust protocols and testing both new and experienced users under blind test conditions that approximate operational conditions.

Decision Support for Renewal of Wastewater Collection and Water Distribution Systems

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study was to identify the current decision support methodologies, models and approaches being used for determining how to rehabilitate or replace underground utilities; identify the critical gaps of these current models through comparison with case history d...

Investigation of the effects of external current systems on the MAGSAT data utilizing grid cell modeling techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klumpar, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Progress made in reducing MAGSAT data and displaying magnetic field perturbations caused primarily by external currents is reported. A periodic and repeatable perturbation pattern is described that arises from external current effects but appears as unique signatures associated with upper middle latitudes on the Earth's surface. Initial testing of the modeling procedure that was developed to compute the magnetic fields at satellite orbit due to current distributions in the ionosphere and magnetosphere is also discussed. The modeling technique utilizes a linear current element representation of the large scale space current system.

A Bayesian Model for the Estimation of Latent Interaction and Quadratic Effects When Latent Variables Are Non-Normally Distributed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelava, Augustin; Nagengast, Benjamin

2012-01-01

Structural equation models with interaction and quadratic effects have become a standard tool for testing nonlinear hypotheses in the social sciences. Most of the current approaches assume normally distributed latent predictor variables. In this article, we present a Bayesian model for the estimation of latent nonlinear effects when the latent…

Analytical model of a corona discharge from a conical electrode under saturation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boltachev, G. Sh.; Zubarev, N. M.

2012-11-01

Exact partial solutions are found for the electric field distribution in the outer region of a stationary unipolar corona discharge from an ideal conical needle in the space-charge-limited current mode with allowance for the electric field dependence of the ion mobility. It is assumed that only the very tip of the cone is responsible for the discharge, i.e., that the ionization zone is a point. The solutions are obtained by joining the spherically symmetric potential distribution in the drift space and the self-similar potential distribution in the space-charge-free region. Such solutions are outside the framework of the conventional Deutsch approximation, according to which the space charge insignificantly influences the shape of equipotential surfaces and electric lines of force. The dependence is derived of the corona discharge saturation current on the apex angle of the conical electrode and applied potential difference. A simple analytical model is suggested that describes drift in the point-plane electrode geometry under saturation as a superposition of two exact solutions for the field potential. In terms of this model, the angular distribution of the current density over the massive plane electrode is derived, which agrees well with Warburg's empirical law.

Computation of marginal distributions of peak-heights in electropherograms for analysing single source and mixture STR DNA samples.

PubMed

Cowell, Robert G

2018-05-04

Current models for single source and mixture samples, and probabilistic genotyping software based on them used for analysing STR electropherogram data, assume simple probability distributions, such as the gamma distribution, to model the allelic peak height variability given the initial amount of DNA prior to PCR amplification. Here we illustrate how amplicon number distributions, for a model of the process of sample DNA collection and PCR amplification, may be efficiently computed by evaluating probability generating functions using discrete Fourier transforms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

PubMed Central

Peterson, A. Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M.

2017-01-01

Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. PMID:29206879

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Alkishe, Abdelghafar A; Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2017-01-01

Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Influence of environmental heterogeneity on the distribution and persistence of a subterranean rodent in a highly unstable landscape.

PubMed

Gómez Fernández, María Jimena; Boston, Emma S M; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Kittlein, Marcelo J; Mirol, Patricia M

2016-12-01

In this study we combine information from landscape characteristics, demographic inference and species distribution modelling to identify environmental factors that shape the genetic distribution of the fossorial rodent Ctenomys. We sequenced the mtDNA control region and amplified 12 microsatellites from 27 populations distributed across the Iberá wetland ecosystem. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling was used to construct phylogenies and estimate divergence times. We developed species distribution models to determine what climatic variables and soil parameters predicted species presence by comparing the current to the historic and predicted future distribution of the species. Finally, we explore the impact of environmental variables on the genetic structure of Ctenomys based on current and past species distributions. The variables that consistently correlated with the predicted distribution of the species and explained the observed genetic differentiation among populations included the distribution of well-drained sandy soils and temperature seasonality. A core region of stable suitable habitat was identified from the Last Interglacial, which is projected to remain stable into the future. This region is also the most genetically diverse and is currently under strong anthropogenic pressure. Results reveal complex demographic dynamics, which have been in constant change in both time and space, and are likely linked to the evolution of the Paraná River. We suggest that any alteration of soil properties (climatic or anthropic) may significantly impact the availability of suitable habitat and consequently the ability of individuals to disperse. The protection of this core stable habitat is of prime importance given the increasing levels of human disturbance across this wetland system and the threat of climate change.

Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain.

PubMed

Gálvez, Rosa; Musella, Vicenzo; Descalzo, Miguel A; Montoya, Ana; Checa, Rocío; Marino, Valentina; Martín, Oihane; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Rinaldi, Laura; Miró, Guadalupe

2017-09-19

The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. The status of flea infestation today is an evident public health concern because of their cosmopolitan distribution and the flea-borne diseases transmission. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Using geospatial tools, models were constructed based on entomological data collected from dogs during the period 2013-2015. Bioclimatic zones, covering broad climate and vegetation ranges, were surveyed in relation to their size. The models builded were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables to show impacts on C. felis infestation prevalence: land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer and autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement and normalized difference vegetation index. In the face of climate change, we also simulated the future distributions of C. felis for the global climate model (GCM) "GFDL-CM3" and for the representative concentration pathway RCP45, which predicts their spread in the country. Predictive models for current climate conditions indicated the widespread distribution of C. felis throughout Spain, mainly across the central northernmost zone of the mainland. Under predicted conditions of climate change, the risk of spread was slightly greater, especially in the north and central peninsula, than for the current situation. The data provided will be useful for local veterinarians to design effective strategies against flea infestation and the pathogens transmitted by these arthropods.

Designing Assessments of Microworld Training for Combat Service Support Staff

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

training for distribution management skills as a part of a larger project that entailed making changes to the current structure, content, and methods...of CSS training. Microworld models are small-scale simulations of organizations and operations. They are useful for training distribution management processes...pilot studies using a microworld model for U.S. Army Reserve (USAR) soldiers in Distribution Management Centers. The degree to which trainees learned

A simulation-based efficiency comparison of AC and DC power distribution networks in commercial buildings

DOE PAGES

Gerber, Daniel L.; Vossos, Vagelis; Feng, Wei; ...

2017-06-12

Direct current (DC) power distribution has recently gained traction in buildings research due to the proliferation of on-site electricity generation and battery storage, and an increasing prevalence of internal DC loads. The research discussed in this paper uses Modelica-based simulation to compare the efficiency of DC building power distribution with an equivalent alternating current (AC) distribution. The buildings are all modeled with solar generation, battery storage, and loads that are representative of the most efficient building technology. A variety of paramet ric simulations determine how and when DC distribution proves advantageous. These simulations also validate previous studies that use simplermore » approaches and arithmetic efficiency models. This work shows that using DC distribution can be considerably more efficient: a medium sized office building using DC distribution has an expected baseline of 12% savings, but may also save up to 18%. In these results, the baseline simulation parameters are for a zero net energy (ZNE) building that can island as a microgrid. DC is most advantageous in buildings with large solar capacity, large battery capacity, and high voltage distribution.« less

A simulation-based efficiency comparison of AC and DC power distribution networks in commercial buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerber, Daniel L.; Vossos, Vagelis; Feng, Wei

Direct current (DC) power distribution has recently gained traction in buildings research due to the proliferation of on-site electricity generation and battery storage, and an increasing prevalence of internal DC loads. The research discussed in this paper uses Modelica-based simulation to compare the efficiency of DC building power distribution with an equivalent alternating current (AC) distribution. The buildings are all modeled with solar generation, battery storage, and loads that are representative of the most efficient building technology. A variety of paramet ric simulations determine how and when DC distribution proves advantageous. These simulations also validate previous studies that use simplermore » approaches and arithmetic efficiency models. This work shows that using DC distribution can be considerably more efficient: a medium sized office building using DC distribution has an expected baseline of 12% savings, but may also save up to 18%. In these results, the baseline simulation parameters are for a zero net energy (ZNE) building that can island as a microgrid. DC is most advantageous in buildings with large solar capacity, large battery capacity, and high voltage distribution.« less

Estimation of stress distribution in ferromagnetic tensile specimens using low cost eddy current stress measurement system and BP neural network.

PubMed

Li, Jianwei; Zhang, Weimin; Zeng, Weiqin; Chen, Guolong; Qiu, Zhongchao; Cao, Xinyuan; Gao, Xuanyi

2017-01-01

Estimation of the stress distribution in ferromagnetic components is very important for evaluating the working status of mechanical equipment and implementing preventive maintenance. Eddy current testing technology is a promising method in this field because of its advantages of safety, no need of coupling agent, etc. In order to reduce the cost of eddy current stress measurement system, and obtain the stress distribution in ferromagnetic materials without scanning, a low cost eddy current stress measurement system based on Archimedes spiral planar coil was established, and a method based on BP neural network to obtain the stress distribution using the stress of several discrete test points was proposed. To verify the performance of the developed test system and the validity of the proposed method, experiment was implemented using structural steel (Q235) specimens. Standard curves of sensors at each test point were achieved, the calibrated data were used to establish the BP neural network model for approximating the stress variation on the specimen surface, and the stress distribution curve of the specimen was obtained by interpolating with the established model. The results show that there is a good linear relationship between the change of signal modulus and the stress in most elastic range of the specimen, and the established system can detect the change in stress with a theoretical average sensitivity of -0.4228 mV/MPa. The obtained stress distribution curve is well consonant with the theoretical analysis result. At last, possible causes and improving methods of problems appeared in the results were discussed. This research has important significance for reducing the cost of eddy current stress measurement system, and advancing the engineering application of eddy current stress testing.

Estimation of stress distribution in ferromagnetic tensile specimens using low cost eddy current stress measurement system and BP neural network

PubMed Central

Li, Jianwei; Zeng, Weiqin; Chen, Guolong; Qiu, Zhongchao; Cao, Xinyuan; Gao, Xuanyi

2017-01-01

Estimation of the stress distribution in ferromagnetic components is very important for evaluating the working status of mechanical equipment and implementing preventive maintenance. Eddy current testing technology is a promising method in this field because of its advantages of safety, no need of coupling agent, etc. In order to reduce the cost of eddy current stress measurement system, and obtain the stress distribution in ferromagnetic materials without scanning, a low cost eddy current stress measurement system based on Archimedes spiral planar coil was established, and a method based on BP neural network to obtain the stress distribution using the stress of several discrete test points was proposed. To verify the performance of the developed test system and the validity of the proposed method, experiment was implemented using structural steel (Q235) specimens. Standard curves of sensors at each test point were achieved, the calibrated data were used to establish the BP neural network model for approximating the stress variation on the specimen surface, and the stress distribution curve of the specimen was obtained by interpolating with the established model. The results show that there is a good linear relationship between the change of signal modulus and the stress in most elastic range of the specimen, and the established system can detect the change in stress with a theoretical average sensitivity of -0.4228 mV/MPa. The obtained stress distribution curve is well consonant with the theoretical analysis result. At last, possible causes and improving methods of problems appeared in the results were discussed. This research has important significance for reducing the cost of eddy current stress measurement system, and advancing the engineering application of eddy current stress testing. PMID:29145500

Peripheral nerve magnetic stimulation: influence of tissue non-homogeneity

PubMed Central

Krasteva, Vessela TZ; Papazov, Sava P; Daskalov, Ivan K

2003-01-01

Background Peripheral nerves are situated in a highly non-homogeneous environment, including muscles, bones, blood vessels, etc. Time-varying magnetic field stimulation of the median and ulnar nerves in the carpal region is studied, with special consideration of the influence of non-homogeneities. Methods A detailed three-dimensional finite element model (FEM) of the anatomy of the wrist region was built to assess the induced currents distribution by external magnetic stimulation. The electromagnetic field distribution in the non-homogeneous domain was defined as an internal Dirichlet problem using the finite element method. The boundary conditions were obtained by analysis of the vector potential field excited by external current-driven coils. Results The results include evaluation and graphical representation of the induced current field distribution at various stimulation coil positions. Comparative study for the real non-homogeneous structure with anisotropic conductivities of the tissues and a mock homogeneous media is also presented. The possibility of achieving selective stimulation of either of the two nerves is assessed. Conclusion The model developed could be useful in theoretical prediction of the current distribution in the nerves during diagnostic stimulation and therapeutic procedures involving electromagnetic excitation. The errors in applying homogeneous domain modeling rather than real non-homogeneous biological structures are demonstrated. The practical implications of the applied approach are valid for any arbitrary weakly conductive medium. PMID:14693034

Assessment of the Economic Potential of Distributed Wind in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCabe, Kevin; Sigrin, Benjamin O.; Lantz, Eric J.

This work seeks to identify current and future spatial distributions of economic potential for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York. These states were identified by technical experts based on their current favorability for distributed wind deployment. We use NREL's Distributed Wind Market Demand Model (dWind) (Lantz et al. 2017; Sigrin et al. 2016) to identify and rank counties in each of the states by their overall and per capita potential. From this baseline assessment, we also explore how and where improvements in cost, performance, and other marketmore » sensitivities affect distributed wind potential.« less

Complete analytical solution of electromagnetic field problem of high-speed spinning ball

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichert, T.; Nussbaumer, T.; Kolar, J. W.

2012-11-01

In this article, a small sphere spinning in a rotating magnetic field is analyzed in terms of the resulting magnetic flux density distribution and the current density distribution inside the ball. From these densities, the motor torque and the eddy current losses can be calculated. An analytical model is derived, and its results are compared to a 3D finite element analysis. The model gives insight into the torque and loss characteristics of a solid rotor induction machine setup, which aims at rotating the sphere beyond 25 Mrpm.

Determining the Impact of Steady-State PV Fault Current Injections on Distribution Protection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seuss, John; Reno, Matthew J.; Broderick, Robert Joseph

This report investigates the fault current contribution from a single large PV system and the impact it has on existing distribution overcurrent protection devices. Assumptions are made about the modeling of the PV system under fault to perform exhaustive steady - state fault analyses throughout distribution feeder models. Each PV interconnection location is tested to determine how the size of the PV system affects the fault current measured by each protection device. This data is then searched for logical conditions that indicate whether a protection device has operated in a manner that will cause more customer outages due to themore » addition of the PV system. This is referred to as a protection issue , and there are four unique types of issues that have been identified in the study. The PV system size at which any issues occur are recorded to determine the feeder's PV hosting capacity limitations due to interference with protection settings. The analysis is carried out on six feeder models. The report concludes with a discussion of the prevalence and cause of each protection issue caused by PV system fault current.« less

A model for characterizing residential ground current and magnetic field fluctuations.

PubMed

Mader, D L; Peralta, S B; Sherar, M D

1994-01-01

The current through the residential grounding circuit is an important source for magnetic fields; field variations near the grounding circuit accurately track fluctuations in this ground current. In this paper, a model is presented which permits calculation of the range of these fluctuations. A discrete network model is used to simulate a local distribution system for a single street, and a statistical model to simulate unbalanced currents in the system. Simulations of three-house and ten-house networks show that random appliance operation leads to ground current fluctuations which can be quite large, on the order of 600%. This is consistent with measured fluctuations in an actual house.

Climate Change and the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Shrub, Lantana camara L

PubMed Central

Taylor, Subhashni; Kumar, Lalit; Reid, Nick; Kriticos, Darren J.

2012-01-01

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios. PMID:22536408

Physiological basis of a steady endogenous current in rat lumbrical muscle

PubMed Central

1984-01-01

In an attempt to determine the mechanism by which rat skeletal muscle endplates generate a steady outward current, we measured the effects of several drugs (furosemide, bumetanide, 9-anthracene carboxylic acid [9- AC]) and changes in external ion concentration (Na+, K+, Cl-, Ba++) on resting membrane potential (Vm) and on the steady outward current. Each of the following treatments caused a 10-15-mV hyperpolarization of the membrane: replacement of extracellular Cl- with isethionate, addition of furosemide or bumetanide, and addition of 9-AC. These results suggest that Cl- is actively accumulated by the muscle fibers and that the equilibrium potential of Cl- is more positive than the membrane potential. Removal of external Na+ also caused a large hyperpolarization and is consistent with evidence in other tissues that active Cl- accumulation requires external Na+. The same treatments greatly reduced or abolished the steady outward current, with a time course that paralleled the changes in Vm. These results cannot be explained by a model in which the steady outward current is assumed to arise as a result of a nonuniform distribution of Na+ conductance, but they are consistent with models in which the steady current is produced by a nonuniform distribution of GCl or GK. Other treatments (Na+-free and K+-free solutions, and 50 microM BaCl2) caused a temporary reversal of the steady current. Parallel measurements of Vm suggested that in none of these cases did the electrochemical driving force for K+ change sign, which makes it unlikely that the steady current arises as a result of a nonuniform distribution of GK. All of the results, however, are consistent with a model in which the steady outward current arises as a result of a nonuniform distribution of Cl- conductance, with GCl lower near the endplate than in extrajunctional regions. PMID:6325581

Energy content of stormtime ring current from phase space mapping simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Margaret W.; Schulz, Michael; Lyons, Larry R.

1993-01-01

We perform a phase space mapping study to estimate the enhancement in energy content that results from stormtime particle transport in the equatorial magnetosphere. Our pre-storm phase space distribution is based on a steady-state transport model. Using results from guiding-center simulations of ion transport during model storms having main phases of 3 hr, 6 hr, and 12 hr, we map phase space distributions of ring current protons from the pre-storm distribution in accordance with Liouville's theorem. We find that transport can account for the entire ten to twenty-fold increase in magnetospheric particle energy content typical of a major storm if a realistic stormtime enhancement of the phase space density f is imposed at the nightside tail plasma sheet (represented by an enhancement of f at the neutral line in our model).

Thermo-Mechanical and Electrochemistry Modeling of Planar SOFC Stacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Recknagle, Kurtis P.; Lin, Zijing

2002-12-01

Modeling activities at PNNL support design and development of modular SOFC systems. The SOFC stack modeling capability at PNNL has developed to a level at which planar stack designs can be compared and optimized for startup performance. Thermal-fluids and stress modeling is being performed to predict the transient temperature distribution and to determine the thermal stresses based on the temperature distribution. Current efforts also include the development of a model for calculating current density, cell voltage, and heat production in SOFC stacks with hydrogen or other fuels. The model includes the heat generation from both Joule heating and chemical reactions.more » It also accounts for species production and destruction via mass balance. The model is being linked to the finite element code MARC to allow for the evaluation of temperatures and stresses during steady state operations.« less

Three-dimensional ring current decay model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Moore, Thomas E.; Kozyra, Janet U.; Ho, George C.; Hamilton, Douglas C.

1995-01-01

This work is an extension of a previous ring current decay model. In the previous work, a two-dimensional kinetic model was constructed to study the temporal variations of the equatorially mirroring ring current ions, considering charge exchange and Coulomb drag losses along drift paths in a magnetic dipole field. In this work, particles with arbitrary pitch angle are considered. By bounce averaging the kinetic equation of the phase space density, information along magnetic field lines can be inferred from the equator. The three-dimensional model is used to simulate the recovery phase of a model great magnetic storm, similar to that which occurred in early February 1986. The initial distribution of ring current ions (at the minimum Dst) is extrapolated to all local times from AMPTE/CCE spacecraft observations on the dawnside and duskside of the inner magnetosphere spanning the L value range L = 2.25 to 6.75. Observations by AMPTE/CCE of ring current distributions over subsequent orbits during the storm recovery phase are compared to model outputs. In general, the calculated ion fluxes are consistent with observations, except for H(+) fluxes at tens of keV, which are always overestimated. A newly invented visualization idea, designated as a chromogram, is used to display the spatial and energy dependence of the ring current ion differential flux. Important features of storm time ring current, such as day-night asymmetry during injection and drift hole on the dayside at low energies (less than 10 keV), are manifested in the chromogram representation. The pitch angle distribution is well fit by the function, J(sub o)(1 + Ay(sup n)), where y is sine of the equatorial pitch angle. The evolution of the index n is a combined effect of charge exchange loss and particle drift. At low energies (less than 30 keV), both drift dispersion and charge exchange are important in determining n.

A three-dimensional ring current decay model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Moore, Thomas E.; Kozyra, Janet U.; Ho, George C.; Hamilton, Douglas C.

1994-01-01

This work is an extension of a previous ring current decay model. In the previous work, a two-dimensional kinetic model was constructed to study the temporal variations of the equatorially mirroring ring current ions, considering charge exchange and Coulomb drag losses along drift paths in a magnetic dipole field. In this work, particles with arbitrary pitch angle are considered. By bounce averaging the kinetic equation of the phase space density, information along magnetic field lines can be inferred from the equator. The three-dimensional model is used to simulate the recovery phase of a model great magnetic storm, similar to that which occurred in early February 1986. The initial distribution of ring current ions (at the minimum Dst) is extrapolated to all local times from AMPTE/CCE spacecraft observations on the dawn and dusk sides of the inner magnetosphere spanning the L value range L = 2.25 to 6.75. Observations by AMPTE/CCE of ring current distributions over subsequent orbits during the storm recovery phase are compared to model outputs. In general, the calculated ion fluxes are consistent with observations, except for H+ fluxes at tens of keV, which are always over-estimated. A newly-invented visualization idea, designated as a chromogram, is used to display the spatial and energy dependence of the ring current ion differential flux. Important features of storm-time ring current, such as day-night asymmetry during injection and drift hole on the dayside at low energies (less than 10 keV), are manifested in the chromogram representation. The pitch angle distribution is well fit by the function, j(sub o)(1+Ay(exp n)), where y is sine of the equatorial pitch angle. The evolution of the index n is a combined effect of charge exchange loss and particle drift. At low energies (less than 30 keV), both drift dispersion and charge exchange are important in determining n.

Bilateral Trade Flows and Income Distribution Similarity.

PubMed

Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Vollmer, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Current models of bilateral trade neglect the effects of income distribution. This paper addresses the issue by accounting for non-homothetic consumer preferences and hence investigating the role of income distribution in the context of the gravity model of trade. A theoretically justified gravity model is estimated for disaggregated trade data (Dollar volume is used as dependent variable) using a sample of 104 exporters and 108 importers for 1980-2003 to achieve two main goals. We define and calculate new measures of income distribution similarity and empirically confirm that greater similarity of income distribution between countries implies more trade. Using distribution-based measures as a proxy for demand similarities in gravity models, we find consistent and robust support for the hypothesis that countries with more similar income-distributions trade more with each other. The hypothesis is also confirmed at disaggregated level for differentiated product categories.

Bilateral Trade Flows and Income Distribution Similarity

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Current models of bilateral trade neglect the effects of income distribution. This paper addresses the issue by accounting for non-homothetic consumer preferences and hence investigating the role of income distribution in the context of the gravity model of trade. A theoretically justified gravity model is estimated for disaggregated trade data (Dollar volume is used as dependent variable) using a sample of 104 exporters and 108 importers for 1980–2003 to achieve two main goals. We define and calculate new measures of income distribution similarity and empirically confirm that greater similarity of income distribution between countries implies more trade. Using distribution-based measures as a proxy for demand similarities in gravity models, we find consistent and robust support for the hypothesis that countries with more similar income-distributions trade more with each other. The hypothesis is also confirmed at disaggregated level for differentiated product categories. PMID:27137462

Linear Power-Flow Models in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Andrey; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

This paper considers multiphase unbalanced distribution systems and develops approximate power-flow models where bus-voltages, line-currents, and powers at the point of common coupling are linearly related to the nodal net power injections. The linearization approach is grounded on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC power-flow equations, and it is applicable to distribution systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. The proposed linear models can facilitate the development of computationally-affordable optimization and control applications -- frommore » advanced distribution management systems settings to online and distributed optimization routines. Performance of the proposed models is evaluated on different test feeders.« less

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Process-based modeling of species' responses to climate change - a proof of concept using western North American trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. E.; Merow, C.; Record, S.; Menlove, J.; Gray, A.; Cundiff, J.; McMahon, S.; Enquist, B. J.

2013-12-01

Current attempts to forecast how species' distributions will change in response to climate change suffer under a fundamental trade-off: between modeling many species superficially vs. few species in detail (between correlative vs. mechanistic models). The goals of this talk are two-fold: first, we present a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, dynamic range modeling (DRM), for building process-based forecasts of many species' distributions at a time, designed to address the trade-off between detail and number of distribution forecasts. In contrast to 'species distribution modeling' or 'niche modeling', which uses only species' occurrence data and environmental data, DRMs draw upon demographic data, abundance data, trait data, occurrence data, and GIS layers of climate in a single framework to account for two processes known to influence range dynamics - demography and dispersal. The vision is to use extensive databases on plant demography, distributions, and traits - in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network, the Forest Inventory and Analysis database (FIA), and the International Tree Ring Data Bank - to develop DRMs for North American trees. Second, we present preliminary results from building the core submodel of a DRM - an integral projection model (IPM) - for a sample of dominant tree species in western North America. IPMs are used to infer demographic niches - i.e., the set of environmental conditions under which population growth rate is positive - and project population dynamics through time. Based on >550,000 data points derived from FIA for nine tree species in western North America, we show IPM-based models of their current and future distributions, and discuss how IPMs can be used to forecast future forest productivity, mortality patterns, and inform efforts at assisted migration.

Plasmon-polariton distributed-feedback laser pumped by a fast drift current in graphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolotovskii, Igor O.; Dadoenkova, Yuliya S.; Moiseev, Sergey G.; Kadochkin, Aleksei S.; Svetukhin, Vyacheslav V.; Fotiadi, Andrei A.

2018-05-01

We propose a model of a slow surface plasmon-polariton distributed-feedback laser with pump by drift current. The amplification in the dielectric-semiconducting film-dielectric waveguide structure is created by fast drift current in the graphene layer, placed at the semiconductor/dielectric interface. The feedback is provided due to a periodic change in the thickness of the semiconducting film. We have shown that in such a system it is possible to achieve surface plasmon-polariton generation in the terahertz region.

Inferences from the Historical Distribution of Wild and Domesticated Maize Provide Ecological and Evolutionary Insight

PubMed Central

Hufford, Matthew B.; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Gaut, Brandon S.; Eguiarte, Luis E.; Tenaillon, Maud I.

2012-01-01

Background The species Zea mays includes both domesticated maize (ssp. mays) and its closest wild relatives known as the teosintes. While genetic and archaeological studies have provided a well-established history of Z. mays evolution, there is currently minimal description of its current and past distribution. Here, we implemented species distribution modeling using paleoclimatic models of the last interglacial (LI; ∼135,000 BP) and the last glacial maximum (LGM; ∼21,000 BP) to hindcast the distribution of Zea mays subspecies over time and to revisit current knowledge of its phylogeography and evolutionary history. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a large occurrence data set and the distribution modeling MaxEnt algorithm, we obtained robust present and past species distributions of the two widely distributed teosinte subspecies (ssps. parviglumis and mexicana) revealing almost perfect complementarity, stable through time, of their occupied distributions. We also investigated the present distributions of primitive maize landraces, which overlapped but were broader than those of the teosintes. Our data reinforced the idea that little historical gene flow has occurred between teosinte subspecies, but maize has served as a genetic bridge between them. We observed an expansion of teosinte habitat from the LI, consistent with population genetic data. Finally, we identified locations potentially serving as refugia for the teosintes throughout epochs of climate change and sites that should be targeted in future collections. Conclusion/Significance The restricted and highly contrasting ecological niches of the wild teosintes differ substantially from domesticated maize. Variables determining the distributions of these taxa can inform future considerations of local adaptation and the impacts of climate change. Our assessment of the changing distributions of Zea mays taxa over time offers a unique glimpse into the history of maize, highlighting a strategy for the study of domestication that may prove useful for other species. PMID:23155371

Distributional prediction of Pleistocene forearc minibasin turbidites in the NE Nankai Trough area (off central Japan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egawa, K.; Furukawa, T.; Saeki, T.; Suzuki, K.; Narita, H.

2011-12-01

Natural gas hydrate-related sequences commonly provide unclear seismic images due to bottom simulating reflector, a seismic indicator of the theoretical base of gas hydrate stability zone, which usually causes problems for fully analyzing the detailed sedimentary structures and seismic facies. Here we propose an alternative technique to predict the distributional pattern of gas hydrate-related deep-sea turbidites with special reference to a Pleistocene forearc minibasin in the northeastern Nankai Trough area, off central Japan, from the integrated 3D structural and sedimentologic modeling. Structural unfolding and stratigraphic backstripping successively modeled a simple horseshoe-shaped paleobathymetry of the targeted turbidite sequence. Based on best-fit matching of net-to-gross ratio (or sand fraction) between the model and wells, subsequent turbidity current modeling on the restored paleobathymetric surface during a single flow event demonstrated excellent prediction results showing the morphologically controlled turbidity current evolution and selective turbidite sand distribution within the modeled minibasin. Also, multiple turbidity current modeling indicated the stacking sheet turbidites with regression and proximal/distal onlaps in the minibasin due to reflections off an opposing slope, whose sedimentary features are coincident with the seismic interpretation. Such modeling works can help us better understand the depositional pattern of gas hydrate-related, unconsolidated turbidites and also can improve gas hydrate reservoir characterization. This study was financially supported by MH21 Research Consortium.

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

2015-09-01

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-linear behaviour of electrical parameters in porous, water-saturated rocks: a model to predict pore size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallbauer-Zadorozhnaya, Valeriya; Santarato, Giovanni; Abu Zeid, Nasser

2015-08-01

In this paper, two separate but related goals are tackled. The first one is to demonstrate that in some saturated rock textures the non-linear behaviour of induced polarization (IP) and the violation of Ohm's law not only are real phenomena, but they can also be satisfactorily predicted by a suitable physical-mathematical model, which is our second goal. This model is based on Fick's second law. As the model links the specific dependence of resistivity and chargeability of a laboratory sample to the injected current and this in turn to its pore size distribution, it is able to predict pore size distribution from laboratory measurements, in good agreement with mercury injection capillary pressure test results. This fact opens up the possibility for hydrogeophysical applications on a macro scale. Mathematical modelling shows that the chargeability acquired in the field under normal conditions, that is at low current, will always be very small and approximately proportional to the applied current. A suitable field test site for demonstrating the possible reliance of both resistivity and chargeability on current was selected and a specific measuring strategy was established. Two data sets were acquired using different injected current strengths, while keeping the charging time constant. Observed variations of resistivity and chargeability are in agreement with those predicted by the mathematical model. These field test data should however be considered preliminary. If confirmed by further evidence, these facts may lead to changing the procedure of acquiring field measurements in future, and perhaps may encourage the design and building of a new specific geo-resistivity meter. This paper also shows that the well-known Marshall and Madden's equations based on Fick's law cannot be solved without specific boundary conditions.

Statistical interpretation of transient current power-law decay in colloidal quantum dot arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibatov, R. T.

2011-08-01

A new statistical model of the charge transport in colloidal quantum dot arrays is proposed. It takes into account Coulomb blockade forbidding multiple occupancy of nanocrystals and the influence of energetic disorder of interdot space. The model explains power-law current transients and the presence of the memory effect. The fractional differential analogue of the Ohm law is found phenomenologically for nanocrystal arrays. The model combines ideas that were considered as conflicting by other authors: the Scher-Montroll idea about the power-law distribution of waiting times in localized states for disordered semiconductors is applied taking into account Coulomb blockade; Novikov's condition about the asymptotic power-law distribution of time intervals between successful current pulses in conduction channels is fulfilled; and the carrier injection blocking predicted by Ginger and Greenham (2000 J. Appl. Phys. 87 1361) takes place.

Global Effects of Transmitted Shock Wave Propagation Through the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere: First Results from 3-D Hybrid Kinetic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipatov, A. S.; Sibeck, D. G.

2016-01-01

We use a new hybrid kinetic model to simulate the response of ring current, outer radiation belt, and plasmaspheric particle populations to impulsive interplanetary shocks. Since particle distributions attending the interplanetary shock waves and in the ring current and radiation belts are non-Maxwellian, waveparticle interactions play a crucial role in energy transport within the inner magnetosphere. Finite gyroradius effects become important in mass loading the shock waves with the background plasma in the presence of higher energy ring current and radiation belt ions and electrons. Initial results show that shocks cause strong deformations in the global structure of the ring current, radiation belt, and plasmasphere. The ion velocity distribution functions at the shock front, in the ring current, and in the radiation belt help us determine energy transport through the Earth's inner magnetosphere.

Counting Jobs and Economic Impacts from Distributed Wind in the United States (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.

This conference poster describes the distributed wind Jobs and Economic Development Imapcts (JEDI) model. The goal of this work is to provide a model that estimates jobs and other economic effects associated with the domestic distributed wind industry. The distributed wind JEDI model is a free input-output model that estimates employment and other impacts resulting from an investment in distributed wind installations. Default inputs are from installers and industry experts and are based on existing projects. User input can be minimal (use defaults) or very detailed for more precise results. JEDI can help evaluate potential scenarios, current or future; informmore » stakeholders and decision-makers; assist businesses in evaluating economic development impacts and estimating jobs; assist government organizations with planning and evaluating and developing communities.« less

Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sigrin, Benjamin; Gleason, Michael; Preus, Robert

The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can modelmore » various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.« less

Modeling dilute pyroclastic density currents on Earth and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, A. B.; Brand, B. D.; De'Michieli Vitturi, M.

2013-12-01

The surface of Mars has been shaped extensively by volcanic activity, including explosive eruptions that may have been heavily influenced by water- or ice-magma interaction. However, the dynamics of associated pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) under Martian atmospheric conditions and controls on deposition and runout from such currents are poorly understood. This work combines numerical modeling with terrestrial field measurements to explore the dynamics of dilute PDC dynamics on Earth and Mars, especially as they relate to deposit characteristics. We employ two numerical approaches. Model (1) consists of simulation of axi-symmetric flow and sedimentation from a steady-state, depth-averaged density current. Equations for conservation of mass, momentum, and energy are solved simultaneously, and the effects of atmospheric entrainment, particle sedimentation, basal friction, temperature changes, and variations in current thickness and density are explored. The Rouse number and Brunt-Väisälä frequency are used to estimate the wavelength of internal gravity waves in a density-stratified current, which allows us to predict deposit dune wavelengths. The model predicts realistic runout distances and bedform wavelengths for several well-documented field cases on Earth. The model results also suggest that dilute PDCs on Mars would have runout distances up to three times that of equivalent currents on Earth and would produce longer-wavelength bedforms. In both cases results are heavily dependent on source conditions, grain-size characteristics, and entrainment and friction parameters. Model (2) relaxes several key simplifications, resulting in a fully 3D, multiphase, unsteady model that captures more details of propagation, including density stratification, and depositional processes. Using this more complex approach, we focus on the role of unsteady or pulsatory vent conditions typically associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions. Runout distances from Model (2) agree reasonably well with Model (1) results, but details of deposit distribution vary between the two models. Model (2) shows that the Earth case initially outpaces the Mars case due to faster propagation velocities associated with higher gravitational acceleration. However, the Mars currents ultimately out-distance the Earth currents due to slower particle settling rates, which also largely explain the longer wavelength bedforms. Model (2) also predicts a peak in the streamwise distribution of deposits farther from the source compared to equivalent results from Model (1), and produces more complex patterns of vertical distribution of particles in the moving current, which varies significantly in time and space. This combination of modeling and deposit data results in a powerful tool for testing hypotheses related to PDCs on Mars, potentially improving our capacity to interpret Martian features on both the outcrop (e.g., Home Plate) and regional scale (e.g., Apollinaris Mons).

Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America.

PubMed

Carmona-Castro, O; Moo-Llanes, D A; Ramsey, J M

2018-03-01

Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and MaxEnt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model (ENM). There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for Neotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. North American triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges (Nearctic 2 and Nearctic/Neotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the Neotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Modeling and mapping the probability of occurrence of invasive wild pigs across the contiguous United States.

PubMed

McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Lutman, Mark W; Theobald, David M; Riggs, Philip D; Grear, Daniel A; Miller, Ryan S

2015-01-01

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa), also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs' historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs' ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs' current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.

Stress-induced electric current fluctuations in rocks: a superstatistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartwright-Taylor, Alexis; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

2017-04-01

We recorded spontaneous electric current flow in non-piezoelectric Carrara marble samples during triaxial deformation. Mechanical data, ultrasonic velocities and acoustic emissions were acquired simultaneously with electric current to constrain the relationship between electric current flow, differential stress and damage. Under strain-controlled loading, spontaneous electric current signals (nA) were generated and sustained under all conditions tested. In dry samples, a detectable electric current arises only during dilatancy and the overall signal is correlated with the damage induced by microcracking. Our results show that fracture plays a key role in the generation of electric currents in deforming rocks (Cartwright-Taylor et al., in prep). We also analysed the high-frequency fluctuations of these electric current signals and found that they are not normally distributed - they exhibit power-law tails (Cartwright-Taylor et al., 2014). We modelled these distributions with q-Gaussian statistics, derived by maximising the Tsallis entropy. This definition of entropy is particularly applicable to systems which are strongly correlated and far from equilibrium. Good agreement, at all experimental conditions, between the distributions of electric current fluctuations and the q-Gaussian function with q-values far from one, illustrates the highly correlated, fractal nature of the electric source network within the samples and provides further evidence that the source of the electric signals is the developing fractal network of cracks. It has been shown (Beck, 2001) that q-Gaussian distributions can arise from the superposition of local relaxations in the presence of a slowly varying driving force, thus providing a dynamic reason for the appearance of Tsallis statistics in systems with a fluctuating energy dissipation rate. So, the probability distribution for a dynamic variable, u under some external slow forcing, β, can be obtained as a superposition of temporary local equilibrium processes whose variance fluctuates over time. The appearance of q-Gaussian statistics are caused by the fluctuating β parameter, which effectively models the fluctuating energy dissipation rate in the system. This concept is known as superstatistics and is physically relevant for modelling driven non-equilibrium systems where the environmental conditions fluctuate on a large scale. The idea is that the environmental variable, such as temperature or pressure, changes so slowly that a rapidly fluctuating variable within that environment has time to relax back to equilibrium between each change in the environment. The application of superstatistical techniques to our experimental electric current fluctuations show that they can indeed be described, to good approximation, by the superposition of local Gaussian processes with fluctuating variance. We conclude, then, that the measured electric current fluctuates in response to intermittent energy dissipation and is driven to varying temporary local equilibria during deformation by the variations in stress intensity. The advantage of this technique is that, once the model has been established to be a good description of the system in question, the average β parameter (a measure of the average energy dissipation rate) for the system can be obtained simply from the macroscopic q-Gaussian distribution parameters.

Reaction formulation for radiation and scattering from plates, corner reflectors and dielectric-coated cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, N. N.

1974-01-01

The reaction concept is employed to formulate an integral equation for radiation and scattering from plates, corner reflectors, and dielectric-coated conducting cylinders. The surface-current density on the conducting surface is expanded with subsectional bases. The dielectric layer is modeled with polarization currents radiating in free space. Maxwell's equation and the boundary conditions are employed to express the polarization-current distribution in terms of the surface-current density on the conducting surface. By enforcing reaction tests with an array of electric test sources, the moment method is employed to reduce the integral equation to a matrix equation. Inversion of the matrix equation yields the current distribution, and the scattered field is then obtained by integrating the current distribution. The theory, computer program and numerical results are presented for radiation and scattering from plates, corner reflectors, and dielectric-coated conducting cylinders.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Characterization of Downstream Ion Energy Distributions From a High Current Hollow Cathode in a Ring Cusp Discharge Chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, John E.; Patterson, Michael J.

2003-01-01

The presence of energetic ions produced by a hollow cathodes operating at high emission currents (greater than 10 Angstroms) has been documented in the literature. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover the underlying physics of the formation of these ions, ion efflux from a high current hollow cathode operating in an ion thruster discharge chamber was investigated. Using a spherical sector electrostatic energy analyzer located downstream of the discharge cathode, the ion energy distribution over a 0 to 60 eV energy range was measured. The sensitivity of the ion energy distribution function to zenith angle was also assessed at 3 different positions: 0, 15, and 25 degrees. The measurements suggest that the majority of the ion current at the measuring point falls into the analyzer with an energy approximately equal to the discharge voltage. The ion distribution, however, was found to be quite broad. The high energy tail of the distribution function tended to grow with increasing discharge current. Sensitivity of the profiles to flow rate at fixed discharge current was also investigated. A simple model is presented that provides a potential mechanism for the production of ions with energies above the discharge voltage.

Ring Current Dynamics in Moderate and Strong Storms: Comparative Analysis of TWINS and IMAGE/HENA Data with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M.-C.; Goldstein, J.; Valek, P.; McComas, D. J.; Brandt, P. C.

2010-01-01

We present a comparative study of ring current dynamics during strong and moderate storms. The ring current during the strong storm is studied with IMAGE/HENA data near the solar cycle maximum in 2000. The ring current during the moderate storm is studied using energetic neutral atom (ENA) data from the Two Wide-Angle Imaging Neutral- Atom Spectrometers (TWINS) mission during the solar minimum in 2008. For both storms, the local time distributions of ENA emissions show signatures of postmidnight enhancement (PME) during the main phases. To model the ring current and ENA emissions, we use the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM). CRCM results show that the main-phase ring current pressure peaks in the premidnight-dusk sector, while the most intense CRCM-simulated ENA emissions show PME signatures. We analyze two factors to explain this difference: the dependence of charge-exchange cross section on energy and pitch angle distributions of ring current. We find that the IMF By effect (twisting of the convection pattern due to By) is not needed to form the PME. Additionally, the PME is more pronounced for the strong storm, although relative shielding and hence electric field skewing is well developed for both events.

Fundamental Design based on Current Distribution in Coaxial Multi-Layer Cable-in-Conduit Conductor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamajima, Takataro; Tsuda, Makoto; Yagai, Tsuyoshi; Takahata, Kazuya; Imagawa, Shinsaku

An imbalanced current distribution is often observed in cable-in-conduit (CIC) superconductors which are composed of multi-staged, triplet type sub-cables, and hence deteriorates the performance of the coils. Therefore, since it is very important to obtain a homogeneous current distribution in the superconducting strands, we propose a coaxial multi-layer type CIC conductor. We use a circuit model for all layers in the coaxial multi-layer CIC conductor, and derive a generalized formula governing the current distribution as explicit functions of the superconductor construction parameters, such as twist pitch, twist direction, radius of each layer, and number of superconducting (SC) strands and copper (Cu) strands. We apply the formula to design the coaxial multi-layer CIC which has the same number of SC strands and Cu strands of the CIC for Central Solenoid of ITER. We can design three kinds of the coaxial multi-layer CIC depending on distribution of SC and Cu strands on all layers. It is shown that the SC strand volume should be optimized as a function of SC and Cu strand distribution on the layers.

How to resolve microsecond current fluctuations in single ion channels: The power of beta distributions

PubMed Central

Schroeder, Indra

2015-01-01

Abstract A main ingredient for the understanding of structure/function correlates of ion channels is the quantitative description of single-channel gating and conductance. However, a wealth of information provided from fast current fluctuations beyond the temporal resolution of the recording system is often ignored, even though it is close to the time window accessible to molecular dynamics simulations. This kind of current fluctuations provide a special technical challenge, because individual opening/closing or blocking/unblocking events cannot be resolved, and the resulting averaging over undetected events decreases the single-channel current. Here, I briefly summarize the history of fast-current fluctuation analysis and focus on the so-called “beta distributions.” This tool exploits characteristics of current fluctuation-induced excess noise on the current amplitude histograms to reconstruct the true single-channel current and kinetic parameters. A guideline for the analysis and recent applications demonstrate that a construction of theoretical beta distributions by Markov Model simulations offers maximum flexibility as compared to analytical solutions. PMID:26368656

Modelling the electric field and the current density generated by cerebellar transcranial DC stimulation in humans.

PubMed

Parazzini, Marta; Rossi, Elena; Ferrucci, Roberta; Liorni, Ilaria; Priori, Alberto; Ravazzani, Paolo

2014-03-01

Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) over the cerebellum (or cerebellar tDCS) modulates working memory, changes cerebello-brain interaction, and affects locomotion in humans. Also, the use of tDCS has been proposed for the treatment of disorders characterized by cerebellar dysfunction. Nonetheless, the electric field (E) and current density (J) spatial distributions generated by cerebellar tDCS are unknown. This work aimed to estimate E and J distributions during cerebellar tDCS. Computational electromagnetics techniques were applied in three human realistic models of different ages and gender. The stronger E and J occurred mainly in the cerebellar cortex, with some spread (up to 4%) toward the occipital cortex. Also, changes by ±1cm in the position of the active electrode resulted in a small effect (up to 4%) in the E and J spatial distribution in the cerebellum. Finally, the E and J spreads to the brainstem and the heart were negligible, thus further supporting the safety of this technique. Despite inter-individual differences, our modeling study confirms that the cerebellum is the structure mainly involved by cerebellar tDCS. Modeling approach reveals that during cerebellar tDCS the current spread to other structures outside the cerebellum is unlike to produce functional effects. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent Simulation Results on Ring Current Dynamics Using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Zaharia, Sorin G.; Lui, Anthony T. Y.; Fok, Mei-Ching

2010-01-01

Plasma sheet conditions and electromagnetic field configurations are both crucial in determining ring current evolution and connection to the ionosphere. In this presentation, we investigate how different conditions of plasma sheet distribution affect ring current properties. Results include comparative studies in 1) varying the radial distance of the plasma sheet boundary; 2) varying local time distribution of the source population; 3) varying the source spectra. Our results show that a source located farther away leads to a stronger ring current than a source that is closer to the Earth. Local time distribution of the source plays an important role in determining both the radial and azimuthal (local time) location of the ring current peak pressure. We found that post-midnight source locations generally lead to a stronger ring current. This finding is in agreement with Lavraud et al.. However, our results do not exhibit any simple dependence of the local time distribution of the peak ring current (within the lower energy range) on the local time distribution of the source, as suggested by Lavraud et al. [2008]. In addition, we will show how different specifications of the magnetic field in the simulation domain affect ring current dynamics in reference to the 20 November 2007 storm, which include initial results on coupling the CRCM with a three-dimensional (3-D) plasma force balance code to achieve self-consistency in the magnetic field.

Spatial distribution of dialysate in patients and its implications to intradialysate diffusion.

PubMed

Hills, Brian A; Birch, Seamus; Burke, John R; LaMont, Anthony C

2002-01-01

To visualize and quantify the spatial distribution of dialysate in patients on continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) and, hence, estimate diffusion times for fluid "pockets" wherever intradialysate concentration gradients may not be dissipated by convective currents. Contrast medium was added to the dialysate of three supine CAPD patients before an exchange prior to computed tomographic (CT) scanning. Spatial information in the CT scanner was then downloaded to other computers and processed to produce impressive three-dimensional models of dialysate distribution using "wire frame technology." Models differed between patients but all demonstrated pooling of dialysate in the paracolic gutters, subphrenic space, and, especially, in the pelvic cavity. Some pockets of fluid were almost isolated. Quantitatively, the models can account for over 80% of the volume of the exchange (2.5 L), displaying an effective area of contact of 913-450 cm2 between parietal peritoneum and dialysate. This amounts to only 11% -21% of the anatomic area, again emphasizing the uneven distribution of dialysate. Ignoring very thin (< 0.1 mm) films of dialysate, the bulk (80%) had mean thicknesses ranging from 1.6 to 1.9 cm. Transcendental equations for bulk diffusion were then applied to these findings to determine a theoretical time for urea of about 2-3 hours to half-saturation, or 5-7 hours to 80% saturation, in the absence of convective currents. The distribution of dialysate within the peritoneal cavity is very uneven, resulting in long diffusion times in fluid pockets wherever convective currents may be minimal. Hence, intradialysate diffusion should not be ignored when modeling peritoneal dialysis.

Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

2010-01-01

Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

3D tomographic reconstruction of the terrestrial exosphere and its time-dependent coupling to the magnetospheric ring current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldrop, L.; Cucho-Padin, G.; Ilie, R.

2017-12-01

Charge exchange collisions between ring current ions and hydrogen (H) atoms in the outer exosphere serve to dissipate magnetospheric energy, particularly during the slow recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, through the generation of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) which escape the system. As a result, knowledge of the spatial distribution and temporal variability of exospheric H density is critical for reliable interpretation of ENA flux measurements as well as for accurate modeling of the ring current. Although numerous theoretical, numerical, and empirical H distributions have been used for such analyses, their reliance on ad hoc or unphysical assumptions, together with their inherently static formulations, is a source of significant uncertainty. Our recent development of a robust tomographic technique for the model-independent estimation of global exospheric H density from optical remote sensing data overcomes the limitations of past analysis and enables an unprecedented investigation of global exospheric and ring current dynamics. Here, we present sample results of our 3D, time-dependent reconstructions of exospheric structure, derived from measurements of resonantly scattered solar Lyman-alpha (121.6 nm) photons acquired by the Lyman-alpha detectors (LADs) onboard NASA's Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS) mission. We use the Hot Electron and Ion Drift Integrator (HEIDI) kinetic model of the ring current to investigate the charge exchange interactions between the resulting H density distribution and ring current ions and generate synthetic images of ENA flux for comparison with those measured by TWINS.

Evaluating the Magnitude and Duration of Cold Load Pick-up on Residential Distribution Feeders Using Multi-State Load Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, Kevin P.; Sortomme, Eric; Venkata, S. S.

The increased level of demand that is associated with the restoration of service after an outage, Cold Load Pick-Up (CLPU), can be significantly higher than pre-outage levels, even exceeding the normal distribution feeder peak demand. These high levels of demand can delay restoration efforts and in extreme cases damage equipment. The negative impacts of CLPU can be mitigated with strategies that restore the feeder in sections, minimizing the load current. The challenge for utilities is to manage the current level on critical equipment while minimizing the time to restore service to all customers. Accurately modeling CLPU events is the firstmore » step in developing improved restoration strategies that minimize restoration times. This paper presents a new method for evaluating the magnitude of the CLPU peak, and its duration, using multi-state load models. The use of multi-state load models allows for a more accurate representation of the end-use loads that are present on residential distribution feeders.« less

Scale-free distribution of Dead Sea sinkholes: Observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yizhaq, H.; Ish-Shalom, C.; Raz, E.; Ashkenazy, Y.

2017-05-01

There are currently more than 5500 sinkholes along the Dead Sea in Israel. These were formed due to the dissolution of subsurface salt layers as a result of the replacement of hypersaline groundwater by fresh brackish groundwater. This process has been associated with a sharp decline in the Dead Sea water level, currently more than 1 m/yr, resulting in a lower water table that has allowed the intrusion of fresher brackish water. We studied the distribution of the sinkhole sizes and found that it is scale free with a power law exponent close to 2. We constructed a stochastic cellular automata model to understand the observed scale-free behavior and the growth of the sinkhole area in time. The model consists of a lower salt layer and an upper soil layer in which cavities that develop in the lower layer lead to collapses in the upper layer. The model reproduces the observed power law distribution without involving the threshold behavior commonly associated with criticality.

45 CFR 310.10 - What are the functional requirements for the Model Tribal IV-D System?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Tribal financial management and expenditure information; (d) Distribute current support and arrearage..., process and monitor accounts receivable on all amounts owed, collected, and distributed with regard to: (1...

45 CFR 310.10 - What are the functional requirements for the Model Tribal IV-D System?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Tribal financial management and expenditure information; (d) Distribute current support and arrearage..., process and monitor accounts receivable on all amounts owed, collected, and distributed with regard to: (1...

45 CFR 310.10 - What are the functional requirements for the Model Tribal IV-D System?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Tribal financial management and expenditure information; (d) Distribute current support and arrearage..., process and monitor accounts receivable on all amounts owed, collected, and distributed with regard to: (1...

Comparison of Measurement And Modeling Of Current Profile Changes Due To Neutral Bean Ion Redistribution During TAE Avalanches in NSTX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darrow, Douglas

Brief "avalanches" of toroidal Alfven eigenmodes (TAEs) are observed in NSTX plasmas with several different n numbers simultaneously present. These affect the neutral beam ion distribution as evidenced by a concurrent drop in the neutron rate and, sometimes, beam ion loss. Guiding center orbit modeling has shown that the modes can transiently render portions of the beam ion phase space stochastic. The resulting redistribution of beam ions can also create a broader beam-driven current profile and produce other changes in the beam ion distribution function

Heat analysis of thermal overload relays using 3-D finite element method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kawase, Yoshihiro; Ichihashi, Takayuki; Ito, Shokichi

1999-05-01

In designing a thermal overload relay, it is necessary to analyze thermal characteristics of several trial models. Up to now, this has been done by measuring the temperatures on a number of positions in the trial models. This experimental method is undoubtedly expensive. In this paper, the temperature distribution of a thermal overload relay is obtained by using 3-D finite element analysis taking into account the current distribution in current-carrying conductors. It is shown that the 3-D analysis is capable of evaluating a new design of thermal overload relays.

Discharge current distribution in stratified soil under impulse discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eniola Fajingbesi, Fawwaz; Shahida Midi, Nur; Elsheikh, Elsheikh M. A.; Hajar Yusoff, Siti

2017-06-01

The mobility of charge particles traversing a material defines its electrical properties. Soil (earth) have long been the universal grounding before and after the inception of active ground systems for electrical appliance purpose due to it semi-conductive properties. The soil can thus be modelled as a single material exhibiting semi-complex inductive-reactive impedance. Under impulse discharge such as lightning strikes to soil this property of soil could result in electric potential level fluctuation ranging from ground potential rise/fall to electromagnetic pulse coupling that could ultimately fail connected electrical appliance. In this work we have experimentally model the soil and lightning discharge using point to plane electrode setup to observe the current distribution characteristics at different soil conductivity [mS/m] range. The result presented from this research indicate above 5% shift in conductivity before and after discharge which is significant for consideration when dealing with grounding designs. The current distribution in soil have also be successfully observed and analysed from experimental result using mean current magnitude in relation to electrode distance and location, current density variation with depth all showing strong correlation with theoretical assumptions of a semi-complex impedance material.

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

PubMed

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

PubMed Central

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

Activation Time of Cardiac Tissue In Response to a Linear Array of Spatial Alternating Bipolar Electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashburn, David; Wikswo, John

2007-11-01

Prevailing theories about the response of the heart to high field shocks predict that local regions of high resistivity distributed throughout the heart create multiple small virtual electrodes that hyperpolarize or depolarize tissue and lead to widespread activation. This resetting of bulk tissue is responsible for the successful functioning of cardiac defibrillators. By activating cardiac tissue with regular linear arrays of spatially alternating bipolar currents, we can simulate these potentials locally. We have studied the activation time due to distributed currents in both a 1D Beeler-Reuter model and on the surface of the whole heart, varying the strength of each source and the separation between them. By comparison with activation time data from actual field shock of a whole heart in a bath, we hope to better understand these transient virtual electrodes. Our work was done on rabbit RV using florescent optical imaging and our Phased Array Stimulator for driving the 16 current sources. Our model shows that for a total absolute current delivered to a region of tissue, the entire region activates faster if above-threshold sources are more distributed.

Influence of the Yukon River on the Bering Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, K.; Mcroy, C. P.

1986-01-01

The relationships between the discharge of the Yukon River to the currents and biological productivity in the northern Bering Sea were studied. Specific objectives were: to develop thermal, sediment, and chlorophyll surface maps using Thematic Mapper (TM) data of the discharge of the Yukon River and the Alaskan Coastal Current during the ice free season; to develop a historical model of the distribution of the Yukon River discharge and the Alaskan Coastal Current using LANDSAT Multispectral band scanner (MSS) and NOAA satellite imagery; and to use high resolution TM data to define the surface dynamics of the front between the Alaskan Coastal Current and the Bering Shelf/Anadyr Current. LANDSAT MSS, TM, and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data were recorded during the 1985 ice free period. The data coincided with shipboard measurements acquired by Inner Shelf Transfer and Recycling (ISTAR) project scientists. An integrated model of the distribution of turbid water discharged from the Yukon River was compiled. A similar model is also being compiled for the Alaskan Coastal and Bering Shelf/Anadyr water masses based on their thermal expressions seen on AVHRR imagery.

Perturbations of the magnetic induction in a bubbly liquid metal flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guichou, Rafael; Tordjeman, Philippe; Bergez, Wladimir; Zamansky, Remi; Paumel, Kevin

2017-11-01

The presence of bubbles in liquid metal flow subject to AC magnetic field modifies the distribution of eddy currents in the fluid. This situation is encountered in metallurgy and nuclear industry for Sodium Fast Reactors. We will show that the perturbation of the eddy currents can be measured by an Eddy Current Flowmeter coupled with a lock-in amplifier. The experiments point out that the demodulated signal allows to detect the presence of a single bubble in the flow. The signal is sensitive both to the diameter and the relative position of the bubble. Then, we will present a model of a potential perturbation of the current density caused by a bubble and the distortion of the magnetic field. The eddy current distribution is calculated from the induction equation. This model is derived from a potential flow around a spherical particle. The total vector potential is the sum of the vector potential in the liquid metal flow without bubbles and the perturbated vector potential due to the presence of a bubble. The model is then compared to the experimental measurements realized with the eddy current flow meter for various bubble diameters in galinstan. The very good agreement between model and experiments validates the relevance of the perturbative approach.

Modular model for Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within the average observed magnetopause.

PubMed

Korth, Haje; Tsyganenko, Nikolai A; Johnson, Catherine L; Philpott, Lydia C; Anderson, Brian J; Al Asad, Manar M; Solomon, Sean C; McNutt, Ralph L

2015-06-01

Accurate knowledge of Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field is required to understand the sources of the planet's internal field. We present the first model of Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within a magnetopause shape derived from Magnetometer observations by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging spacecraft. The field of internal origin is approximated by a dipole of magnitude 190 nT R M 3 , where R M is Mercury's radius, offset northward by 479 km along the spin axis. External field sources include currents flowing on the magnetopause boundary and in the cross-tail current sheet. The cross-tail current is described by a disk-shaped current near the planet and a sheet current at larger (≳ 5  R M ) antisunward distances. The tail currents are constrained by minimizing the root-mean-square (RMS) residual between the model and the magnetic field observed within the magnetosphere. The magnetopause current contributions are derived by shielding the field of each module external to the magnetopause by minimizing the RMS normal component of the magnetic field at the magnetopause. The new model yields improvements over the previously developed paraboloid model in regions that are close to the magnetopause and the nightside magnetic equatorial plane. Magnetic field residuals remain that are distributed systematically over large areas and vary monotonically with magnetic activity. Further advances in empirical descriptions of Mercury's magnetospheric external field will need to account for the dependence of the tail and magnetopause currents on magnetic activity and additional sources within the magnetosphere associated with Birkeland currents and plasma distributions near the dayside magnetopause.

Modular model for Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within the average observed magnetopause

PubMed Central

Tsyganenko, Nikolai A.; Johnson, Catherine L.; Philpott, Lydia C.; Anderson, Brian J.; Al Asad, Manar M.; Solomon, Sean C.; McNutt, Ralph L.

2015-01-01

Abstract Accurate knowledge of Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field is required to understand the sources of the planet's internal field. We present the first model of Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within a magnetopause shape derived from Magnetometer observations by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging spacecraft. The field of internal origin is approximated by a dipole of magnitude 190 nT RM 3, where RM is Mercury's radius, offset northward by 479 km along the spin axis. External field sources include currents flowing on the magnetopause boundary and in the cross‐tail current sheet. The cross‐tail current is described by a disk‐shaped current near the planet and a sheet current at larger (≳ 5 RM) antisunward distances. The tail currents are constrained by minimizing the root‐mean‐square (RMS) residual between the model and the magnetic field observed within the magnetosphere. The magnetopause current contributions are derived by shielding the field of each module external to the magnetopause by minimizing the RMS normal component of the magnetic field at the magnetopause. The new model yields improvements over the previously developed paraboloid model in regions that are close to the magnetopause and the nightside magnetic equatorial plane. Magnetic field residuals remain that are distributed systematically over large areas and vary monotonically with magnetic activity. Further advances in empirical descriptions of Mercury's magnetospheric external field will need to account for the dependence of the tail and magnetopause currents on magnetic activity and additional sources within the magnetosphere associated with Birkeland currents and plasma distributions near the dayside magnetopause. PMID:27656335

Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

2015-08-01

Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and complementary information in addition to that provided by forecasts of species occurrence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Synergistic use of an oil drift model and remote sensing observations for oil spill monitoring.

PubMed

De Padova, Diana; Mossa, Michele; Adamo, Maria; De Carolis, Giacomo; Pasquariello, Guido

2017-02-01

In case of oil spills due to disasters, one of the environmental concerns is the oil trajectories and spatial distribution. To meet these new challenges, spill response plans need to be upgraded. An important component of such a plan would be models able to simulate the behaviour of oil in terms of trajectories and spatial distribution, if accidentally released, in deep water. All these models need to be calibrated with independent observations. The aim of the present paper is to demonstrate that significant support to oil slick monitoring can be obtained by the synergistic use of oil drift models and remote sensing observations. Based on transport properties and weathering processes, oil drift models can indeed predict the fate of spilled oil under the action of water current velocity and wind in terms of oil position, concentration and thickness distribution. The oil spill event that occurred on 31 May 2003 in the Baltic Sea offshore the Swedish and Danish coasts is considered a case study with the aim of producing three-dimensional models of sea circulation and oil contaminant transport. The High-Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) is used for atmospheric forcing. The results of the numerical modelling of current speed and water surface elevation data are validated by measurements carried out in Kalmarsund, Simrishamn and Kungsholmsfort stations over a period of 18 days and 17 h. The oil spill model uses the current field obtained from a circulation model. Near-infrared (NIR) satellite images were compared with numerical simulations. The simulation was able to predict both the oil spill trajectories of the observed slick and thickness distribution. Therefore, this work shows how oil drift modelling and remotely sensed data can provide the right synergy to reproduce the timing and transport of the oil and to get reliable estimates of thicknesses of spilled oil to prepare an emergency plan and to assess the magnitude of risk involved in case of oil spills due to disaster.

Numerical Analysis on Effect of Areal Gas Distribution Pipe on Characteristics Inside COREX Shaft Furnace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shengli; Du, Kaiping; Xu, Jian; Shen, Wei; Kou, Mingyin; Zhang, Zhekai

2014-07-01

In recent years, two parallel pipes of areal gas distribution (AGD) were installed into the COREX shaft furnace to improve the furnace efficiency. A three-dimensional mathematical model at steady state, which takes a modified three-interface unreacted core model into consideration, is developed in the current work to describe the effect of the AGD pipe on the inner characteristics of shaft furnace. The accuracy of the model is evaluated using the plant operational data. The AGD pipe effectively improves the uniformity of reducing gas distribution, which leads to an increase in gas temperature and concentration of CO or H2 around the AGD pipe, and hence it further contributes to the iron oxide reduction. As a result, the top gas utilization rate and the solid metallization rate (MR) at the bottom outlet are increased by 0.015 and 0.11, respectively. In addition, the optimizations of the flow volume ratio (FVR) of the reducing gas fed through the AGD inlet and the AGD pipe arrangement are further discussed based on the gas flow distribution and the solid MR. Despite the relative suitability of the current FVR (60%), it is still meaningful to enable a manual adjustment of FVR, instead of having it driven by pressure difference, to solve certain production problems. On the other hand, considering the flatter distribution of gas flow, the higher solid MR, and easy installation and replacement, the cross distribution arrangement of AGD pipe with a length of 3 m is recommended to replace the current AGD pipe arrangement.

Performance of the Heavy Flavor Tracker (HFT) detector in star experiment at RHIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alruwaili, Manal

With the growing technology, the number of the processors is becoming massive. Current supercomputer processing will be available on desktops in the next decade. For mass scale application software development on massive parallel computing available on desktops, existing popular languages with large libraries have to be augmented with new constructs and paradigms that exploit massive parallel computing and distributed memory models while retaining the user-friendliness. Currently, available object oriented languages for massive parallel computing such as Chapel, X10 and UPC++ exploit distributed computing, data parallel computing and thread-parallelism at the process level in the PGAS (Partitioned Global Address Space) memory model. However, they do not incorporate: 1) any extension at for object distribution to exploit PGAS model; 2) the programs lack the flexibility of migrating or cloning an object between places to exploit load balancing; and 3) lack the programming paradigms that will result from the integration of data and thread-level parallelism and object distribution. In the proposed thesis, I compare different languages in PGAS model; propose new constructs that extend C++ with object distribution and object migration; and integrate PGAS based process constructs with these extensions on distributed objects. Object cloning and object migration. Also a new paradigm MIDD (Multiple Invocation Distributed Data) is presented when different copies of the same class can be invoked, and work on different elements of a distributed data concurrently using remote method invocations. I present new constructs, their grammar and their behavior. The new constructs have been explained using simple programs utilizing these constructs.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.

1996-12-31

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search anmore » artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.« less

Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

PubMed

Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

2017-05-01

Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

PubMed

Ortega-Andrade, H Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

PubMed Central

Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A.; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J.

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador. PMID:25798851

Acoustic emission by self-organising effects of micro-hollow cathode discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotschate, Daniel; Gaal, Mate; Kersten, Holger

2018-04-01

We designed micro-hollow cathode discharge prototypes under atmospheric pressure and investigated their acoustic characteristics. For the acoustic model of the discharge, we correlated the self-organisation effect of the current density distribution with the ideal model of an acoustic membrane. For validation of the obtained model, sound particle velocity spectroscopy was used to detect and analyse the acoustic emission experimentally. The results have shown a behaviour similar to the ideal acoustic membrane. Therefore, the acoustic excitation is decomposable into its eigenfrequencies and predictable. The model was unified utilising the gas exhaust velocity caused by the electrohydrodynamic force. The results may allow a contactless prediction of the current density distribution by measuring the acoustic emission or using the micro-discharge as a tunable acoustic source for specific applications as well.

Physics-based coastal current tomographic tracking using a Kalman filter.

PubMed

Wang, Tongchen; Zhang, Ying; Yang, T C; Chen, Huifang; Xu, Wen

2018-05-01

Ocean acoustic tomography can be used based on measurements of two-way travel-time differences between the nodes deployed on the perimeter of the surveying area to invert/map the ocean current inside the area. Data at different times can be related using a Kalman filter, and given an ocean circulation model, one can in principle now cast and even forecast current distribution given an initial distribution and/or the travel-time difference data on the boundary. However, an ocean circulation model requires many inputs (many of them often not available) and is unpractical for estimation of the current field. A simplified form of the discretized Navier-Stokes equation is used to show that the future velocity state is just a weighted spatial average of the current state. These weights could be obtained from an ocean circulation model, but here in a data driven approach, auto-regressive methods are used to obtain the time and space dependent weights from the data. It is shown, based on simulated data, that the current field tracked using a Kalman filter (with an arbitrary initial condition) is more accurate than that estimated by the standard methods where data at different times are treated independently. Real data are also examined.

Risk assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Stephen N. Matthews

2012-01-01

Species distribution models for 147 bird species have been derived using climate, elevation, and distribution of current tree species as potential predictors (Matthews et al. 2011). In this case study, a risk matrix was developed for two bird species (fig. A2-5), with projected change in bird habitat (the x axis) based on models of changing suitable habitat resulting...

Developing the Next Generation NATO Reference Mobility Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-27

acquisition • design UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.(#27992) Vehicle Dynamics Model...and numerical resolution – for use in vehicle design , acquisition and operational mobility planning 27 June 2016 An open architecture was established...the current empirical methods for simulating vehicle and suspension designs . – Industry wide shortfall with tire dynamics and soft soil behavior

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

Treesearch

Kenneth L. Cole; Kirsten Ironside; Jon Eischeid; Gregg Garfin; Phillip B. Duffy; Chris Toney

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ~11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the...

Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models.

PubMed

Oke, Tobi A; Hager, Heather A

2017-01-01

The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity.

Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models

PubMed Central

Oke, Tobi A.; Hager, Heather A.

2017-01-01

The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity. PMID:28426754

How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

PubMed

Gritti, Emmanuel Stephan; Gaucherel, Cédric; Crespo-Perez, Maria-Veronica; Chuine, Isabelle

2013-01-01

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT) that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagussylvatica L., Quercusrobur L. and Pinussylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.

How Can Model Comparison Help Improving Species Distribution Models?

PubMed Central

Gritti, Emmanuel Stephan; Gaucherel, Cédric; Crespo-Perez, Maria-Veronica; Chuine, Isabelle

2013-01-01

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT) that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus robur L. and Pinus sylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes. PMID:23874779

Plasma distribution and spacecraft charging modeling near Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, R.; Divine, N.

1977-01-01

To assess the role of spacecraft charging near Jupiter, the plasma distribution in Jupiter's magnetosphere was modeled using data from the plasma analyzer experiments on Pioneer 10 (published results) and on Pioneer 11 (preliminary results). In the model, electron temperatures are kT = 4 eV throughout, whereas proton temperatures range over 100 or equal to kT or equal to 400 eV. The model fluxes and concentrations vary over three orders of magnitude among several corotating regions, including, in order to increasing distance from Jupiter, a plasma void, plasma sphere, sporadic zone, ring current, current sheet, high latitude plasma and magnetosheath. Intermediate and high energy electrons and protons (to 100 MeV) are modeled as well. The models supply the information for calculating particle fluxes to a spacecraft in the Jovian environment. The particle balance equations (including effects of secondary and photoemission) then determine the spacecraft potential.

Current distribution within parallel-connected battery cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, Martin J.; Hofmann, Markus H.; Steinhardt, Marco; Schuster, Simon F.; Jossen, Andreas

2016-12-01

Parallel connections can be found in many battery applications. Therefore, it is of high interest to understand how the current distributes within parallel battery cells. However, the number of publications on this topic is comparably low. Furthermore, the measurement set-ups are often not clearly defined in existing publications and it is likely that additional impedances distorted the measured current distributions. In this work, the principles of current distributions within parallel-connected battery cells are investigated theoretically, with an equivalent electric circuit model, and by measurements. A measurement set-up is developed that does not significantly influence the measurements, as proven by impedance spectroscopy. On this basis, two parameter scenarios are analyzed: the ΔR scenario stands for battery cells with differing impedances but similar capacities and the ΔC scenario for differing capacities and similar impedances. Out of 172 brand-new lithium-ion battery cells, pairs are built to practically represent the ΔR and ΔC scenarios. If a charging pulse is applied to the ΔR scenario, currents initially divide according to the current divider but equalize in constant current phases. The current divider has no effect on ΔC pairs but, as a rule of thumb for long-term loads, currents divide according to the battery cell capacities.

Some analytical models to estimate maternal age at birth using age-specific fertility rates.

PubMed

Pandey, A; Suchindran, C M

1995-01-01

"A class of analytical models to study the distribution of maternal age at different births from the data on age-specific fertility rates has been presented. Deriving the distributions and means of maternal age at birth of any specific order, final parity and at next-to-last birth, we have extended the approach to estimate parity progression ratios and the ultimate parity distribution of women in the population.... We illustrate computations of various components of the model expressions with the current fertility experiences of the United States for 1970." excerpt

Thermomechanical Fractional Model of TEMHD Rotational Flow

PubMed Central

Hamza, F.; Abd El-Latief, A.; Khatan, W.

2017-01-01

In this work, the fractional mathematical model of an unsteady rotational flow of Xanthan gum (XG) between two cylinders in the presence of a transverse magnetic field has been studied. This model consists of two fractional parameters α and β representing thermomechanical effects. The Laplace transform is used to obtain the numerical solutions. The fractional parameter influence has been discussed graphically for the functions field distribution (temperature, velocity, stress and electric current distributions). The relationship between the rotation of both cylinders and the fractional parameters has been discussed on the functions field distribution for small and large values of time. PMID:28045941

Characterization and predictability of basin scale SWE distributions using ASO snow depth and SWE retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, K.; Hedrick, A. R.; Marks, D. G.; Painter, T. H.

2017-12-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow water resources (SWE) in the mountains has been examined extensively through the use of models, in-situ networks and remote sensing techniques. However, until the Airborne Snow Observatory (http://aso.jpl.nasa.gov), our understanding of SWE dynamics has been limited due to a lack of well-constrained spatial distributions of SWE in complex terrain, particularly at high elevations and at regional scales (100km+). ASO produces comprehensive snow depth measurements and well-constrained SWE products providing the opportunity to re-examine our current understanding of SWE distributions with a robust and rich data source. We collected spatially-distributed snow depth and SWE data from over 150 individual ASO acquisitions spanning seven basins in California during the five-year operational period of 2013 - 2017. For each of these acquisitions, we characterized the spatial distribution of snow depth and SWE and examined how these distributions changed with time during snowmelt. We compared these distribution patterns between each of the seven basins and finally, examined the predictability of the SWE distributions using statistical extrapolations through both space and time. We compare and contrast these observationally-based characteristics with those from a physically-based snow model to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the implementation of our understanding of SWE processes in the model environment. In practice, these results may be used to support or challenge our current understanding of mountain SWE dynamics and provide techniques for enhanced evaluation of high-resolution snow models that go beyond in-situ point comparisons. In application, this work may provide guidance on the potential of ASO to guide backfilling of sparse spaceborne measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent.

Liver allocation and distribution: time for a change.

PubMed

Deshpande, Ranjit; Hirose, Ryutaro; Mulligan, David

2017-04-01

Liver allograft allocation has been a topic of hot debate for over a decade. New redistricting changes have been proposed by the Liver and Intestinal Transplant Committee to the existing United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) liver allocation policy. The basis of this new proposal is similar to the old one with an aim to distribute organs in a fair, efficient and equitable fashion. In this review, we plan to look in depth at the redistribution proposals thus far, their merits and how they may help patients who do not have adequate access to livers. Many authors have criticized the proposed changes to organ distribution to reduce geographic disparity in access to liver transplantation. Our focus in this article is to bring forth the most recent literature and proposed changes in the current distribution system. We will also mention two other possible methods that have been proposed to redesign distribution using concentric circles and neighborhoods. In this article, we also look at the economics of the redistricting proposal and its effects on transplant centers. The UNOS Liver and Intestinal Transplant Committee has recommended a proposal using the eight-district model with proximity circles and three additional Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) points with initial sharing MELD threshold of 25 as a starting point to reduce disparity in patient access to deceased donor livers for transplantation. This proposal has met with significant resistance because of concerns of cost, logistics and impact on existing transplant centers. Other methodologies have also been proposed that have the potential to significantly improve our current disparity of access to life-saving organs. Variation in the supply of donor organs vs. the demand or need for liver transplant by geography and the current defined areas of distribution drive this disparity. Cost benefits to the healthcare system in caring for patients with advanced stages of liver disease may outweigh increased costs of transportation and transplantation. The current allocation boundaries are not optimal for liver distribution, as modeled by all suggested solutions thus far. The need to identify a more optimal and equitable allocation/distribution system is paramount.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aldridge, David F.; Bartel, Lewis C.

Program LETS calculates the electric current distribution (in space and time) along an electrically energized steel-cased geologic borehole situated within the subsurface earth. The borehole is modeled as an electrical transmission line that “leaks” current into the surrounding geology. Parameters pertinent to the transmission line current calculation (i.e., series resistance and inductance, shunt capacitance and conductance) are obtained by sampling the electromagnetic (EM) properties of a three-dimensional (3D) geologic earth model along a (possibly deviated) well track.

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

PubMed

Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

2018-01-01

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Thermal Modelling Analysis of Spiral Wound Supercapacitor under Constant-Current Cycling

PubMed Central

Wang, Kai; Li, Liwei; Yin, Huaixian; Zhang, Tiezhu; Wan, Wubo

2015-01-01

A three-dimensional modelling approach is used to study the effects of operating and ambient conditions on the thermal behaviour of the spiral wound supercapacitor. The transient temperature distribution during cycling is obtained by using the finite element method with an implicit predictor-multicorrector algorithm. At the constant current of 2A, the results show that the maximum temperature appears in core area. After 5 cycles, the maximum temperature is 34.5°C, while in steady state, it’s up to 42.5°C. This paper further studies the relationship between the maximum temperature and charge-discharge current. The maximum temperature will be more than 60°C after 5 cycles at the current of 4A, and cooling measurements should be taken at that time. It can provide thoughts on inner temperature field distribution and structure design of the spiral wound supercapacitor in working process. PMID:26444687

Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration for distributed hydrologic runoff modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spies, R. R.; Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.

2012-12-01

Distributed models have the ability of incorporating spatially variable data, especially high resolution forcing inputs such as precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in hydrologic modeling. Use of distributed hydrologic models for operational streamflow prediction has been partially hindered by a lack of readily available, spatially explicit input observations. Potential evapotranspiration (PET), for example, is currently accounted for through PET input grids that are based on monthly climatological values. The goal of this study is to assess the use of satellite-based PET estimates that represent the temporal and spatial variability, as input to the National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). Daily PET grids are generated for six watersheds in the upper Mississippi River basin using a method that applies only MODIS satellite-based observations and the Priestly Taylor formula (MODIS-PET). The use of MODIS-PET grids will be tested against the use of the current climatological PET grids for simulating basin discharge. Gridded surface temperature forcing data are derived by applying the inverse distance weighting spatial prediction method to point-based station observations from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). Precipitation data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). A-priori gridded parameters for the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Snow-17 model, and routing model are initially obtained from the Office of Hydrologic Development and further calibrated using an automated approach. The potential of the MODIS-PET to be used in an operational distributed modeling system will be assessed with the long-term goal of promoting research to operations transfers and advancing the science of hydrologic forecasting.

An analysis of electrical conductivity model in saturated porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, J.; Wei, W.; Qin, X.; Hu, X.

2017-12-01

Electrical conductivity of saturated porous media has numerous applications in many fields. In recent years, the number of theoretical methods to model electrical conductivity of complex porous media has dramatically increased. Nevertheless, the process of modeling the spatial conductivity distributed function continues to present challenges when these models used in reservoirs, particularly in porous media with strongly heterogeneous pore-space distributions. Many experiments show a more complex distribution of electrical conductivity data than the predictions derived from the experiential model. Studies have observed anomalously-high electrical conductivity of some low-porosity (tight) formations compared to more- porous reservoir rocks, which indicates current flow in porous media is complex and difficult to predict. Moreover, the change of electrical conductivity depends not only on the pore volume fraction but also on several geometric properties of the more extensive pore network, including pore interconnection and tortuosity. In our understanding of electrical conductivity models in porous media, we study the applicability of several well-known methods/theories to electrical characteristics of porous rocks as a function of pore volume, tortuosity and interconnection, to estimate electrical conductivity based on the micro-geometrical properties of rocks. We analyze the state of the art of scientific knowledge and practice for modeling porous structural systems, with the purpose of identifying current limitations and defining a blueprint for future modeling advances. We compare conceptual descriptions of electrical current flow processes in pore space considering several distinct modeling approaches. Approaches to obtaining more reasonable electrical conductivity models are discussed. Experiments suggest more complex relationships between electrical conductivity and porosity than experiential models, particularly in low-porosity formations. However, the available theoretical models combined with simulations do provide insight to how microscale physics affects macroscale electrical conductivity in porous media.

Spatially-Resolved Beam Current and Charge-State Distributions for the NEXT Ion Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollard, James E.; Diamant, Kevin D.; Crofton, Mark W.; Patterson, Michael J.; Soulas, George C.

2010-01-01

Plume characterization tests with the 36-cm NEXT ion engine are being performed at The Aerospace Corporation using engineering-model and prototype-model thrusters. We have examined the beam current density and xenon charge-state distribution as functions of position on the accel grid. To measure the current density ratio j++/j+, a collimated Eprobe was rotated through the plume with the probe oriented normal to the accel electrode surface at a distance of 82 cm. The beam current density jb versus radial position was measured with a miniature planar probe at 3 cm from the accel. Combining the j++/j+ and jb data yielded the ratio of total Xe+2 current to total Xe+1 current (J++/J+) at forty operating points in the standard throttle table. The production of Xe+2 and Xe+3 was measured as a function of propellant utilization to support performance and lifetime predictions for an extended throttle table. The angular dependence of jb was measured at intermediate and far-field distances to assist with plume modeling and to evaluate the thrust loss due to beam divergence. Thrust correction factors were derived from the total doubles-to-singles current ratio and from the far-field divergence data

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

2017-03-01

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

2017-01-01

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Cathode Characterization with Steel and Copper Collector Bars in an Electrolytic Cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Subrat; Morsi, Yos; Brooks, Geoffrey

2013-12-01

This article presents finite-element method simulation results of current distribution in an aluminum electrolytic cell. The model uses one quarter of the cell as a computational domain assuming longitudinal (along the length of the cell) and transverse axes of symmetries. The purpose of this work is to closely examine the impact of steel and copper collector bars on the cell current distribution. The findings indicated that an inclined steel collector bar (φ = 1°) can save up to 10-12 mV from the cathode lining in comparison to a horizontal 100 mm × 150-mm steel collector bar. It is predicted that a copper collector bar has a much higher potential of saving cathode voltage drop (CVD) and has a greater impact on the overall current distribution in the cell. A copper collector bar with 72% of cathode length and size of 100 mm × 150 mm is predicted to have more than 150 mV savings in cathode lining. In addition, a significant improvement in current distribution over the entire cathode surface is achieved when compared with a similar size of steel collector bar. There is a reduction of more than 70% in peak current density value due to the higher conductivity of copper. Comparisons between steel and copper collector bars with different sizes are discussed in terms CVD and current density distribution. The most important aspect of the findings is to recognize the influence of copper collector bars on the current distribution in molten metal. Lorentz fields are evaluated at different sizes of steel and copper collector bars. The simulation predicts that there is 50% decrease in Lorentz force due to the improvement in current distribution in the molten metal.

Equivalence of MAXENT and Poisson point process models for species distribution modeling in ecology.

PubMed

Renner, Ian W; Warton, David I

2013-03-01

Modeling the spatial distribution of a species is a fundamental problem in ecology. A number of modeling methods have been developed, an extremely popular one being MAXENT, a maximum entropy modeling approach. In this article, we show that MAXENT is equivalent to a Poisson regression model and hence is related to a Poisson point process model, differing only in the intercept term, which is scale-dependent in MAXENT. We illustrate a number of improvements to MAXENT that follow from these relations. In particular, a point process model approach facilitates methods for choosing the appropriate spatial resolution, assessing model adequacy, and choosing the LASSO penalty parameter, all currently unavailable to MAXENT. The equivalence result represents a significant step in the unification of the species distribution modeling literature. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-08-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate

PubMed Central

Munguía, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.; Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.; Araújo, Miguel B.

2012-01-01

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions. PMID:22511938

A distributed data base management facility for the CAD/CAM environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balza, R. M.; Beaudet, R. W.; Johnson, H. R.

1984-01-01

Current/PAD research in the area of distributed data base management considers facilities for supporting CAD/CAM data management in a heterogeneous network of computers encompassing multiple data base managers supporting a variety of data models. These facilities include coordinated execution of multiple DBMSs to provide for administration of and access to data distributed across them.

Risk Assessment in Relation to the Effect of Climate Change on Water Shortage in the Taichung Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, J.; Chang, L.; Ho, C.; Niu, M.

2010-12-01

Rapid economic development has stimulated a worldwide greenhouse effect and induced global climate change. Global climate change has increased the range of variation in the quantity of regional river flows between wet and dry seasons, which effects the management of regional water resources. Consequently, the influence of climate change has become an important issue in the management of regional water resources. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to risk analysis of shortage of water supply in the Taichung area. This study proposed a simulation model that integrated three models: weather generator model, surface runoff model, and water distribution model. The proposed model was used to evaluate the efficiency of the current water supply system and the potential effectiveness of two additional plans for water supply: the “artificial lakes” plan and the “cross-basin water transport” plan. A first-order Markov Chain method and two probability distribution models, exponential distribution and normal distribution, were used in the weather generator model. In the surface runoff model, researchers selected the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model (GWLF) to simulate the relationship between quantity of rainfall and basin outflow. A system dynamics model (SD) was applied to the water distribution model. Results of the simulation indicated that climate change could increase the annual quantity of river flow in the Dachia River and Daan River basins. However, climate change could also increase the difference in the quantity of river flow between wet and dry seasons. Simulation results showed that in current system case or in the additional plan cases, shortage status of water for both public and agricultural uses with conditions of climate change will be mostly worse than that without conditions of climate change except for the shortage status for the public use in the current system case. With or without considering the effect of climate change, the additional plans, especially the “cross-basin water transport” plan, for water supply could significantly increase the supply of water for public use. The proposed simulation model and results of analysis in this study could provide valuable reference for decision-makers in regards to risk analysis of regional water supply.

Relationship of the interplanetary electric field to the high-latitude ionospheric electric field and currents Observations and model simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clauer, C. R.; Banks, P. M.

1986-01-01

The electrical coupling between the solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere is studied. The coupling is analyzed using observations of high-latitude ion convection measured by the Sondre Stromfjord radar in Greenland and a computer simulation. The computer simulation calculates the ionospheric electric potential distribution for a given configuration of field-aligned currents and conductivity distribution. The technique for measuring F-region in velocities at high time resolution over a large range of latitudes is described. Variations in the currents on ionospheric plasma convection are examined using a model of field-aligned currents linking the solar wind with the dayside, high-latitude ionosphere. The data reveal that high-latitude ionospheric convection patterns, electric fields, and field-aligned currents are dependent on IMF orientation; it is observed that the electric field, which drives the F-region plasma curve, responds within about 14 minutes to IMF variations in the magnetopause. Comparisons of the simulated plasma convection with the ion velocity measurements reveal good correlation between the data.

Predicting wildfire occurrence distribution with spatial point process models and its uncertainty assessment: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Peter J. Weisberg; Thomas E. Dilts; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Alison Stanton; Carl Skinner

2015-01-01

Strategic fire and fuel management planning benefits from detailed understanding of how wildfire occurrences are distributed spatially under current climate, and from predictive models of future wildfire occurrence given climate change scenarios. In this study, we fitted historical wildfire occurrence data from 1986 to 2009 to a suite of spatial point process (SPP)...

Validation of a Numerical Program for Analyzing Kinetic Energy Potential in the Bangka Strait, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rompas, P. T. D.; Taunaumang, H.; Sangari, F. J.

2018-02-01

The paper presents validation of the numerical program that computes the distribution of marine current velocities in the Bangka strait and the kinetic energy potential in the form the distributions of available power per area in the Bangka strait. The numerical program used the RANS model where the pressure distribution in the vertical assumed to be hydrostatic. The 2D and 3D numerical program results compared with the measurement results that are observation results to the moment conditions of low and high tide currents. It found no different significant between the numerical results and the measurement results. There are 0.97-2.2 kW/m2 the kinetic energy potential in the form the distributions of available power per area in the Bangka strait when low tide currents, whereas when high tide currents of 1.02-2.1 kW/m2. The results show that to be enabling the installation of marine current turbines for construction of power plant in the Bangka strait, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

Study of the zinc-silver oxide battery system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nanis, L.

1973-01-01

Theoretical and experimental models for the evaluation of current distribution in flooded, porous electrodes are discussed. An approximation for the local current distribution function was derived for conditions of a linear overpotential, a uniform concentration, and a very conductive matrix. By considering the porous electrode to be an analog of chemical catalyst structures, a dimensionless performance parameter was derived from the approximated current distribution function. In this manner the electrode behavior was characterized in terms of an electrochemical Thiele parameter and an effectiveness factor. It was shown that the electrochemical engineering approach makes possible the organizations of theoretical descriptions and of practical experience in the form of dimensionless parameters, such as the electrochemical Thiele parameters, and hence provides useful information for the design of new electrochemical systems.

Revealing the distribution of transmembrane currents along the dendritic tree of a neuron from extracellular recordings

PubMed Central

Cserpán, Dorottya; Meszéna, Domokos; Wittner, Lucia; Tóth, Kinga; Ulbert, István; Somogyvári, Zoltán

2017-01-01

Revealing the current source distribution along the neuronal membrane is a key step on the way to understanding neural computations; however, the experimental and theoretical tools to achieve sufficient spatiotemporal resolution for the estimation remain to be established. Here, we address this problem using extracellularly recorded potentials with arbitrarily distributed electrodes for a neuron of known morphology. We use simulations of models with varying complexity to validate the proposed method and to give recommendations for experimental applications. The method is applied to in vitro data from rat hippocampus. PMID:29148974

Distributions-per-level: a means of testing level detectors and models of patch-clamp data.

PubMed

Schröder, I; Huth, T; Suitchmezian, V; Jarosik, J; Schnell, S; Hansen, U P

2004-01-01

Level or jump detectors generate the reconstructed time series from a noisy record of patch-clamp current. The reconstructed time series is used to create dwell-time histograms for the kinetic analysis of the Markov model of the investigated ion channel. It is shown here that some additional lines in the software of such a detector can provide a powerful new means of patch-clamp analysis. For each current level that can be recognized by the detector, an array is declared. The new software assigns every data point of the original time series to the array that belongs to the actual state of the detector. From the data sets in these arrays distributions-per-level are generated. Simulated and experimental time series analyzed by Hinkley detectors are used to demonstrate the benefits of these distributions-per-level. First, they can serve as a test of the reliability of jump and level detectors. Second, they can reveal beta distributions as resulting from fast gating that would usually be hidden in the overall amplitude histogram. Probably the most valuable feature is that the malfunctions of the Hinkley detectors turn out to depend on the Markov model of the ion channel. Thus, the errors revealed by the distributions-per-level can be used to distinguish between different putative Markov models of the measured time series.

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. II - Electrical coupling between the upper and lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.; Hays, P. B.

1979-01-01

The paper presents a model of global atmospheric electricity used to examine the effect of upper atmospheric generators on the global electrical circuit. The model represents thunderstorms as dipole current generators randomly distributed in areas of known thunderstorm frequency; the electrical conductivity in the model increases with altitude, and electrical effects are coupled with a passive magnetosphere along geomagnetic field lines. The large horizontal-scale potential differences at ionospheric heights map downward into the lower atmosphere where the perturbations in the ground electric field are superimposed on the diurnal variation. Finally, changes in the upper atmospheric conductivity due to solar flares, polar cap absorptions, and Forbush decreases are shown to alter the downward mapping of the high-latitude potential pattern and the global distribution of fields and currents.

Magnetic Field of Conductive Objects as Superposition of Elementary Eddy Currents and Eddy Current Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukhanov, D. Ya.; Zav'yalova, K. V.

2018-03-01

The paper represents induced currents in an electrically conductive object as a totality of elementary eddy currents. The proposed scanning method includes measurements of only one component of the secondary magnetic field. Reconstruction of the current distribution is performed by deconvolution with regularization. Numerical modeling supported by the field experiments show that this approach is of direct practical relevance.

An analysis of the gradient-induced electric fields and current densities in human models when situated in a hybrid MRI-LINAC system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Limei; Trakic, Adnan; Sanchez-Lopez, Hector; Liu, Feng; Crozier, Stuart

2014-01-01

MRI-LINAC is a new image-guided radiotherapy treatment system that combines magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with a linear accelerator (LINAC) in a single unit. One drawback is that the pulsing of the split gradient coils of the system induces an electric field and currents in the patient which need to be predicted and evaluated for patient safety. In this novel numerical study the in situ electric fields and associated current densities were evaluated inside tissue-accurate male and female human voxel models when a number of different split-geometry gradient coils were operated. The body models were located in the MRI-LINAC system along the axial and radial directions in three different body positions. Each model had a region of interest (ROI) suitable for image-guided radiotherapy. The simulation results show that the amplitudes and distributions of the field and current density induced by different split x-gradient coils were similar with one another in the ROI of the body model, but varied outside of the region. The fields and current densities induced by a split classic coil with the surface unconnected showed the largest deviation from those given by the conventional non-split coils. Another finding indicated that the distributions of the peak current densities varied when the body position, orientation or gender changed, while the peak electric fields mainly occurred in the skin and fat tissues.

Marcus-Hush-Chidsey theory of electron transfer to and from species bound at a non-uniform electrode surface: Theory and experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henstridge, Martin C.; Batchelor-McAuley, Christopher; Gusmão, Rui; Compton, Richard G.

2011-11-01

Two simple models of electrode surface inhomogeneity based on Marcus-Hush theory are considered; a distribution in formal potentials and a distribution in electron tunnelling distances. Cyclic voltammetry simulated using these models is compared with that simulated using Marcus-Hush theory for a flat, uniform and homogeneous electrode surface, with the two models of surface inhomogeneity yielding broadened peaks with decreased peak-currents. An edge-plane pyrolytic graphite electrode is covalently modified with ferrocene via 'click' chemistry and the resulting voltammetry compared with each of the three previously considered models. The distribution of formal potentials is seen to fit the experimental data most closely.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2015-03-01

We perform a land surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies between 6 modern stand-alone land surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by 5 different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99-135 x 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the best current observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 x 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1-128 x 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air temperature based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile.

PubMed

Thompson, Denise M; Ligon, Day B; Patton, Jason C; Papeş, Monica

2017-04-01

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Combining Satellite Ocean Color and Hydrodynamic Model Uncertainties in Bio-Optical Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-03

observed chlorophyll distribution for that day (MODIS Image for October 17, 2011), without regard to sign, I.e., IFigs. 11(c)-11(a)l. Black pixels indicate...time using the current field from the model. Uncertainties in both the satellite chlorophyll values and the currents from the circulation model impact...ensemole techniques to partition the chlorophyll uncertainties into components due to atmospheric correction and bio-optical inversion. By combining

Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.

PubMed

Sahlean, Tiberiu C; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R

2014-01-01

Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.

The future of the New Zealand plastic surgery workforce.

PubMed

Adams, Brandon M; Klaassen, Michael F; Tan, Swee T

2013-04-05

The New Zealand (NZ) plastic and reconstructive surgery (PRS) workforce provides reconstructive plastic surgery (RPS) public services from six centres. There has been little analysis on whether the workforce is adequate to meet the needs of the NZ population currently or in the future. This study analysed the current workforce, its distribution and future requirements. PRS manpower data, workforce activities, population statistics, and population modelling were analysed to determine current needs and predict future needs for the PRS workforce. The NZ PRS workforce is compared with international benchmarks. Regional variation of the workforce was analysed with respect to the population's access to PRS services. Future supply of specialist plastic surgeons is analysed. NZ has a lower number of plastic surgeons per capita than comparable countries. The current NZ PRS workforce is mal-distributed. Areas of current and emerging future need are identified. The current workforce mal-distribution will worsen with future population growth and distribution. Up to 60% of the NZ population will be at risk of inadequate access to PRS services by 2027. Development of PRS services must be coordinated to ensure that equitable and sustainable services are available throughout NZ. Strategies for ensuring satisfactory future workforce are discussed.

Predicting fundamental and realized distributions based on thermal niche: A case study of a freshwater turtle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, João Fabrício Mota; Coelho, Marco Túlio Pacheco; Ribeiro, Bruno R.

2018-04-01

Species distribution models (SDM) have been broadly used in ecology to address theoretical and practical problems. Currently, there are two main approaches to generate SDMs: (i) correlative, which is based on species occurrences and environmental predictor layers and (ii) process-based models, which are constructed based on species' functional traits and physiological tolerances. The distributions estimated by each approach are based on different components of species niche. Predictions of correlative models approach species realized niches, while predictions of process-based are more akin to species fundamental niche. Here, we integrated the predictions of fundamental and realized distributions of the freshwater turtle Trachemys dorbigni. Fundamental distribution was estimated using data of T. dorbigni's egg incubation temperature, and realized distribution was estimated using species occurrence records. Both types of distributions were estimated using the same regression approaches (logistic regression and support vector machines), both considering macroclimatic and microclimatic temperatures. The realized distribution of T. dorbigni was generally nested in its fundamental distribution reinforcing theoretical assumptions that the species' realized niche is a subset of its fundamental niche. Both modelling algorithms produced similar results but microtemperature generated better results than macrotemperature for the incubation model. Finally, our results reinforce the conclusion that species realized distributions are constrained by other factors other than just thermal tolerances.

Robust nonlinear system identification: Bayesian mixture of experts using the t-distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldacchino, Tara; Worden, Keith; Rowson, Jennifer

2017-02-01

A novel variational Bayesian mixture of experts model for robust regression of bifurcating and piece-wise continuous processes is introduced. The mixture of experts model is a powerful model which probabilistically splits the input space allowing different models to operate in the separate regions. However, current methods have no fail-safe against outliers. In this paper, a robust mixture of experts model is proposed which consists of Student-t mixture models at the gates and Student-t distributed experts, trained via Bayesian inference. The Student-t distribution has heavier tails than the Gaussian distribution, and so it is more robust to outliers, noise and non-normality in the data. Using both simulated data and real data obtained from the Z24 bridge this robust mixture of experts performs better than its Gaussian counterpart when outliers are present. In particular, it provides robustness to outliers in two forms: unbiased parameter regression models, and robustness to overfitting/complex models.

Modelling Framework and the Quantitative Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources in Future Distribution Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun; Nordström, Lars

2013-08-01

There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large-scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) could eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in numerous ways. Thus, it is necessary to introduce a framework to measure to what extent the power system operation will be changed by various parameters of DERs. This article proposed a modelling framework for an overview analysis on the correlation between DERs. Furthermore, to validate the framework, the authors described the reference models of different categories of DERs with their unique characteristics, comprising distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles. Subsequently, quantitative analysis was made on the basis of the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden. Simulations are performed in two typical distribution network models for four seasons. The simulation results show that in general the DER deployment brings in the possibilities to reduce the power losses and voltage drops by compensating power from the local generation and optimizing the local load profiles.

3D modelling of the human thorax for ventilation distribution measured through electrical impedance tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, W. R.; Wang, H. X.

2010-11-01

Thoracic electrical impedance tomography (EIT) aims to reconstruct a cross-sectional image of the internal spatial distribution of conductivity from electrical measurements made by injecting small alternating currents via an electrode array placed on the surface of the thorax. It is a non-invasive, radiation-free monitoring technique. In this paper, true 3D thorax models with conductivity distribution or complex conductivity distribution under different ARDS conditions are built up in comparison with the 2.5D ones, and EIT-derived numeric indices are also employed for evaluation of the lung ventilation. The purpose of this paper is to study different effects of different thorax models with either conductivity or complex conductivity on the reconstructed images and ventilation indices.

Full particle-in-cell simulations of kinetic equilibria and the role of the initial current sheet on steady asymmetric magnetic reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dargent, J.; Aunai, N.; Belmont, G.; Dorville, N.; Lavraud, B.; Hesse, M.

2016-06-01

> Tangential current sheets are ubiquitous in space plasmas and yet hard to describe with a kinetic equilibrium. In this paper, we use a semi-analytical model, the BAS model, which provides a steady ion distribution function for a tangential asymmetric current sheet and we prove that an ion kinetic equilibrium produced by this model remains steady in a fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulation even if the electron distribution function does not satisfy the time independent Vlasov equation. We then apply this equilibrium to look at the dependence of magnetic reconnection simulations on their initial conditions. We show that, as the current sheet evolves from a symmetric to an asymmetric upstream plasma, the reconnection rate is impacted and the X line and the electron flow stagnation point separate from one another and start to drift. For the simulated systems, we investigate the overall evolution of the reconnection process via the classical signatures discussed in the literature and searched in the Magnetospheric MultiScale data. We show that they seem robust and do not depend on the specific details of the internal structure of the initial current sheet.

Analytical and Experimental Evaluation of the Heat Transfer Distribution over the Surfaces of Turbine Vanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hylton, L. D.; Mihelc, M. S.; Turner, E. R.; Nealy, D. A.; York, R. E.

1983-01-01

Three airfoil data sets were selected for use in evaluating currently available analytical models for predicting airfoil surface heat transfer distributions in a 2-D flow field. Two additional airfoils, representative of highly loaded, low solidity airfoils currently being designed, were selected for cascade testing at simulated engine conditions. Some 2-D analytical methods were examined and a version of the STAN5 boundary layer code was chosen for modification. The final form of the method utilized a time dependent, transonic inviscid cascade code coupled to a modified version of the STAN5 boundary layer code featuring zero order turbulence modeling. The boundary layer code is structured to accommodate a full spectrum of empirical correlations addressing the coupled influences of pressure gradient, airfoil curvature, and free-stream turbulence on airfoil surface heat transfer distribution and boundary layer transitional behavior. Comparison of pedictions made with the model to the data base indicates a significant improvement in predictive capability.

Analytical and experimental evaluation of the heat transfer distribution over the surfaces of turbine vanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hylton, L. D.; Mihelc, M. S.; Turner, E. R.; Nealy, D. A.; York, R. E.

1983-05-01

Three airfoil data sets were selected for use in evaluating currently available analytical models for predicting airfoil surface heat transfer distributions in a 2-D flow field. Two additional airfoils, representative of highly loaded, low solidity airfoils currently being designed, were selected for cascade testing at simulated engine conditions. Some 2-D analytical methods were examined and a version of the STAN5 boundary layer code was chosen for modification. The final form of the method utilized a time dependent, transonic inviscid cascade code coupled to a modified version of the STAN5 boundary layer code featuring zero order turbulence modeling. The boundary layer code is structured to accommodate a full spectrum of empirical correlations addressing the coupled influences of pressure gradient, airfoil curvature, and free-stream turbulence on airfoil surface heat transfer distribution and boundary layer transitional behavior. Comparison of pedictions made with the model to the data base indicates a significant improvement in predictive capability.

A generic set of HF antennas for use with spherical model expansions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katal, Nedim

1990-03-01

An antenna engineering handbook and database program has been constructed by engineers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) using the Numerical Electromagnetics Code (NEC) antenna modeling program to prepare data performance on tactical field communication antennas used by the Army. It is desirable to have this information installed on a personnel computer (PC), using relational database techniques to select antennas based on performance criteria. This thesis obtains and analyses current distributions and radiation pattern data by using NEC for the following set of four (4) high frequency (HF) tactical generic antennas to be used in future spherical mode expansion work: a quarter wavelength basic whip, a one-wavelength horizontal quad Loop, a 564-foot longwire, and a sloping vee beam dipole. The results of this study show that the basic whip antenna provides good groundwave communication, but it has poor near vertical incident skywave (NVIS) performance. The current distribution has the characteristics of standing waves. The horizontal quad loop antenna is good for night vision imaging systems (NVIS) and medium range skywave communications. The current distribution is sinusoidal and continuous around the loop. The long wire antenna allows short, medium and long range communications and a standing wave current distribution occurs along the antenna axis due to non-termination. The sloping vee beam antenna favors long range communication and the current distribution is mainly that of travelling sinusoidal waves. Because of their well-known efficiency, the basic whip and quad loop can be used as reference standards for the spherical mode expansion work. The longwire and sloping vee beam antenna are unwieldy, but they are effective as base station antennas.

Numerical simulations of electric potential field for alternating current potential drop associated with surface cracks in low-alloy steel nuclear material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Chun-Ping; Huang, Jiunn-Yuan

2018-04-01

Low-alloy steels used as structural materials in nuclear power plants are subjected to cyclic stresses during power plant operations. As a result, cracks may develop and propagate through the material. The alternating current potential drop technique is used to measure the lengths of cracks in metallic components. The depth of the penetration of the alternating current is assumed to be small compared to the crack length. This assumption allows the adoption of the unfolding technique to simplify the problem to a surface Laplacian field. The numerical modelling of the electric potential and current density distribution prediction model for a compact tension specimen and the unfolded crack model are presented in this paper. The goal of this work is to conduct numerical simulations to reduce deviations occurring in the crack length measurements. Numerical simulations were conducted on AISI 4340 low-alloy steel with different crack lengths to evaluate the electric potential distribution. From the simulated results, an optimised position for voltage measurements in the crack region was proposed.

Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

2017-11-01

Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the three proposed models outperform the two traditional models and involving large-scale climatic indices can improve the forecasting accuracy.

Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2009-01-01

Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

Soft Wall Ion Channel in Continuum Representation with Application to Modeling Ion Currents in α-Hemolysin

PubMed Central

Simakov, Nikolay A.

2010-01-01

A soft repulsion (SR) model of short range interactions between mobile ions and protein atoms is introduced in the framework of continuum representation of the protein and solvent. The Poisson-Nernst-Plank (PNP) theory of ion transport through biological channels is modified to incorporate this soft wall protein model. Two sets of SR parameters are introduced: the first is parameterized for all essential amino acid residues using all atom molecular dynamic simulations; the second is a truncated Lennard – Jones potential. We have further designed an energy based algorithm for the determination of the ion accessible volume, which is appropriate for a particular system discretization. The effects of these models of short-range interaction were tested by computing current-voltage characteristics of the α-hemolysin channel. The introduced SR potentials significantly improve prediction of channel selectivity. In addition, we studied the effect of choice of some space-dependent diffusion coefficient distributions on the predicted current-voltage properties. We conclude that the diffusion coefficient distributions largely affect total currents and have little effect on rectifications, selectivity or reversal potential. The PNP-SR algorithm is implemented in a new efficient parallel Poisson, Poisson-Boltzman and PNP equation solver, also incorporated in a graphical molecular modeling package HARLEM. PMID:21028776

Earth's external magnetic fields at low orbital altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klumpar, D. M.

1990-01-01

Under our Jun. 1987 proposal, Magnetic Signatures of Near-Earth Distributed Currents, we proposed to render operational a modeling procedure that had been previously developed to compute the magnetic effects of distributed currents flowing in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. After adaptation of the software to our computing environment we would apply the model to low altitude satellite orbits and would utilize the MAGSAT data suite to guide the analysis. During the first year, basic computer codes to run model systems of Birkeland and ionospheric currents and several graphical output routines were made operational on a VAX 780 in our research facility. Software performance was evaluated using an input matchstick ionospheric current array, field aligned currents were calculated and magnetic perturbations along hypothetical satellite orbits were calculated. The basic operation of the model was verified. Software routines to analyze and display MAGSAT satellite data in terms of deviations with respect to the earth's internal field were also made operational during the first year effort. The complete set of MAGSAT data to be used for evaluation of the models was received at the end of the first year. A detailed annual report in May 1989 described these first year activities completely. That first annual report is included by reference in this final report. This document summarizes our additional activities during the second year of effort and describes the modeling software, its operation, and includes as an attachment the deliverable computer software specified under the contract.

Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Peggy E.; Alvarez, Otto; McKinney, Shawn T.; Li, Wenkai; Brooks, Matthew L.; Guo, Qinghua

2017-01-01

Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks.We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract.Overall, models indicated that suitable habitats for whitebark and foxtail pine are more likely to shift geographically within the parks by 2100 rather than decline precipitously. This implies park managers might focus conservation efforts on stressors other than climate change, working toward species resilience in the face of threats from introduced disease and elevated native insect damage. More specifically, further understanding of the incidence and severity of white pine blister rust and other stressors in high elevation white pines would help assess vulnerability from threats other than climate change.

Regional Distribution Models with Lack of Proximate Predictors: Africanized Honeybees Expanding North

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Esaias, Wayne E.; Ma, Peter L. A.; Morisette, Jeffery T.; Nickeson, Jaime E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nightingale, Joanne M.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Tan, Bin

2014-01-01

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species-environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Regional distribution models with lack of proximate predictors: Africanized honeybees expanding north

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Esaias, Wayne E.; Ma, Peter L.A.; Morisette, Jeffery T.; Nickeson, Jaime E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nightingale, Joanne M.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Tan, Bin

2014-01-01

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species–environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Comparisons of neutrino event generators from an oscillation-experiment perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Nathan

2015-05-01

Monte Carlo generators are crucial to the analysis of high energy physics data, ideally giving a baseline comparison between the state-of-art theoretical models and experimental data. Presented here is a comparison between three of final state distributions from the GENIE, Neut, NUANCE, and NuWro neutrino Monte Carlo event generators. The final state distributions chosen for comparison are: the electromagnetic energy fraction in neutral current interactions, the energy of the leading π0 vs. the scattering angle for neutral current interactions, and the muon energy vs. scattering angle of νµ charged current interactions.

The Design of a 100 GHz CARM (Cyclotron Auto-Resonance Maser) Oscillator Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-14

pulsed-power system must be considered. A model of the voltage pulse that consists of a linear voltage rise from zero to the operating voltage...to vary as the voltage to the 3/2 power in order to model space-charge limited flow from a relativistic diode.. As the current rises in the pulse, the...distribution due to a space-charge-limited, laminar flow of electrons based on a one-dimensional, planar, relativistic model . From the charge distribution

On the development of a new methodology in sub-surface parameterisation on the calibration of groundwater models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaas, D. K. S. Y.; Imteaz, M. A.; Sudiayem, I.; Klaas, E. M. E.; Klaas, E. C. M.

2017-10-01

In groundwater modelling, robust parameterisation of sub-surface parameters is crucial towards obtaining an agreeable model performance. Pilot point is an alternative in parameterisation step to correctly configure the distribution of parameters into a model. However, the methodology given by the current studies are considered less practical to be applied on real catchment conditions. In this study, a practical approach of using geometric features of pilot point and distribution of hydraulic gradient over the catchment area is proposed to efficiently configure pilot point distribution in the calibration step of a groundwater model. A development of new pilot point distribution, Head Zonation-based (HZB) technique, which is based on the hydraulic gradient distribution of groundwater flow, is presented. Seven models of seven zone ratios (1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30) using HZB technique were constructed on an eogenetic karst catchment in Rote Island, Indonesia and their performances were assessed. This study also concludes some insights into the trade-off between restricting and maximising the number of pilot points and offers a new methodology for selecting pilot point properties and distribution method in the development of a physically-based groundwater model.

Analysis of Mesh Distribution Systems Considering Load Models and Load Growth Impact with Loops on System Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar Sharma, A.; Murty, V. V. S. N.

2014-12-01

The distribution system is the final link between bulk power system and consumer end. A distinctive load flow solution method is used for analysis of the load flow of radial and weakly meshed network based on Kirchhoff's Current Law (KCL) and KVL. This method has excellent convergence characteristics for both radial as well as weakly meshed structure and is based on bus injection to branch current and branch-current to bus-voltage matrix. The main contribution of the paper is: (i) an analysis has been carried out for a weekly mesh network considering number of loops addition and its impact on the losses, kW and kVAr requirements from a system, and voltage profile, (ii) different load models, realistic ZIP load model and load growth impact on losses, voltage profile, kVA and kVAr requirements, (iii) impact of addition of loops on losses, voltage profile, kVA and kVAr requirements from substation, and (iv) comparison of system performance with radial distribution system. Voltage stability is a major concern in planning and operation of power systems. This paper also includes identifying the closeness critical bus which is the most sensitive to the voltage collapse in radial distribution networks. Node having minimum value of voltage stability index is the most sensitive node. Voltage stability index values are computed for meshed network with number of loops added in the system. The results have been obtained for IEEE 33 and 69 bus test system. The results have also been obtained for radial distribution system for comparison.

Global Distributions of Ionospheric Electrostatic Potentials for Various Interplanetary Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartalev, M.; Papitashvili, V.; Keremidarska, V.; Grigorov, K.; Romanov, D.

2001-12-01

We report on a study of the global ionospheric electrostatic potential distributions obtained from combining two algorithms used for the mapping of high-latitude and middle-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics; that is, the LiMIE (http://www.sprl.umich.edu/mist/) and IMEH (http://geospace.nat.bg) models, respectively. In this combination, the latter model utilizes the LiMIE high-latitude field-aligned current distributions for various IMF conditions and different seasons (summer, winter, equinox). The IMEH model is a mathematical tool, allowing us to study conjugacy (or non-conjugacy) of the ionospheric electric fields on a global scale, from the northern and southern polar regions to the middle- and low-latitudes. The proposed numerical scheme permits testing of different mechanisms of the interhemispheric coupling and mapping to the ionosphere through the appropriate current systems. The scheme is convenient for determining self-consistently the separatrices in both the northern and southern hemispheres. In this study we focus on the global ionospheric electrostatic field distributions neglecting other possible electric field sources. Considering some implications of the proposed technique for the space weather specification and forecasting, we developed a Web-based interface providing global distributions of the ionospheric electrostatic potentials in near-real time from the ACE upstream solar wind observations at L1.

On the importance of incorporating sampling weights in occupancy model estimation

EPA Science Inventory

Occupancy models are used extensively to assess wildlife-habitat associations and to predict species distributions across large geographic regions. Occupancy models were developed as a tool to properly account for imperfect detection of a species. Current guidelines on survey des...

Studies of the Codeposition of Cobalt Hydroxide and Nickel Hydroxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. H.; Murthy, M.; VanZee, J. W.

1997-01-01

Topics considered include: chemistry, experimental measurements, planar film model development, impregnation model development, results and conclusion. Also included: effect of cobalt concentration on deposition/loading; effect of current density on loading distribution.

Distribution of salmon-habitat potential relative to landscape characteristics and implications for conservation.

Treesearch

K.M. Burnett; G.H. Reeves; D.J. Miller; S. Clarke; K. Vance-Borland; K. Christiansen

2007-01-01

The geographic distribution of stream reaches with potential to support high-quality habitat for salmonids has bearing on the actual status of habitats and populations over broad spatial extents. As part of the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study, we examined how salmon-habitat potential was distributed relative to current and future (+100 years) landscape...

New methods for estimating parameters of weibull functions to characterize future diameter distributions in forest stands

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

2006-01-01

Diameter distributions in a forest stand have been successfully characterized by use of the Weibull function. Of special interest are cases where parameters of a Weibull distribution that models a future stand are predicted, either directly or indirectly, from current stand density and dominant height. This study evaluated four methods of predicting the Weibull...

Architectural Optimization of Digital Libraries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biser, Aileen O.

1998-01-01

This work investigates performance and scaling issues relevant to large scale distributed digital libraries. Presently, performance and scaling studies focus on specific implementations of production or prototype digital libraries. Although useful information is gained to aid these designers and other researchers with insights to performance and scaling issues, the broader issues relevant to very large scale distributed libraries are not addressed. Specifically, no current studies look at the extreme or worst case possibilities in digital library implementations. A survey of digital library research issues is presented. Scaling and performance issues are mentioned frequently in the digital library literature but are generally not the focus of much of the current research. In this thesis a model for a Generic Distributed Digital Library (GDDL) and nine cases of typical user activities are defined. This model is used to facilitate some basic analysis of scaling issues. Specifically, the calculation of Internet traffic generated for different configurations of the study parameters and an estimate of the future bandwidth needed for a large scale distributed digital library implementation. This analysis demonstrates the potential impact a future distributed digital library implementation would have on the Internet traffic load and raises questions concerning the architecture decisions being made for future distributed digital library designs.

Development of a Distributed Hydrologic Model Using Triangulated Irregular Networks for Continuous, Real-Time Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. Y.; Vivoni, E. R.; Bras, R. L.; Entekhabi, D.

2001-05-01

The Triangulated Irregular Networks (TINs) are widespread in many finite-element modeling applications stressing high spatial non-uniformity while describing the domain of interest in an optimized fashion that results in superior computational efficiency. TINs, being adaptive to the complexity of any terrain, are capable of maintaining topological relations between critical surface features and therefore afford higher flexibility in data manipulation. The TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) is a distributed hydrologic model that utilizes the mesh architecture and the software environment developed for the CHILD landscape evolution model and employs the hydrologic routines of its raster-oriented version, RIBS. As a totally independent software unit, the tRIBS consolidates the strengths of the distributed approach and efficient computational data platform. The current version couples the unsaturated and the saturated zones and accounts for the interaction of moving infiltration fronts with a variable groundwater surface, allowing the model to handle both storm and interstorm periods in a continuous fashion. Recent model enhancements have included the development of interstorm hydrologic fluxes through an evapotranspiration scheme as well as incorporation of a rainfall interception module. Overall, the tRIBS model has proven to properly mimic successive phases of the distributed catchment response by reproducing various runoff production mechanisms and handling their meteorological constraints. Important improvements in modeling options, robustness to data availability and overall design flexibility have also been accomplished. The current efforts are focused on further model developments as well as the application of the tRIBS to various watersheds.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk Assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Stephen N. Matthews

2012-01-01

Species distribution models for 147 bird species have been derived using climate, elevation, and distribution of current tree species as potential predictors (Matthews et al. 2011). In this case study, a risk matrix was developed for two bird species (fig. A2-5), with projected change in bird habitat (the x axis) based on models of changing suitable habitat resulting...

Comparison of Hall Thruster Plume Expansion Model with Experimental Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-23

focus of this study, is a hybrid particle- in-cell ( PIC ) model that tracks particles along an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. * Research Engineer...measurements of the ion current density profile, ion energy distributions, and ion species fraction distributions using a nude Faraday probe, retarding...Vol.37 No.1. 6 Oh, D. and Hastings, D., “Three Dimensional PIC -DSMC Simulations of Hall Thruster Plumes and Analysis for Realistic Spacecraft

Improved work zone design guidelines and enhanced model of travel delays in work zones : Phase I, portability and scalability of interarrival and service time probability distribution functions for different locations in Ohio and the establishment of impr

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The project focuses on two major issues - the improvement of current work zone design practices and an analysis of : vehicle interarrival time (IAT) and speed distributions for the development of a digital computer simulation model for : queues and t...

Experimental and numerical studies of micro PEM fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Rong-Gui; Chung, Chen-Chung; Chen, Chiun-Hsun

2011-10-01

A single micro proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) has been produced using Micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) technology with the active area of 2.5 cm2 and channel depth of about 500 µm. A theoretical analysis is performed in this study for a novel MEMS-based design of amicro PEMFC. Themodel consists of the conservation equations of mass, momentum, species and electric current in a fully integrated finite-volume solver using the CFD-ACE+ commercial code. The polarization curves of simulation are well correlated with experimental data. Three-dimensional simulations are carried out to treat prediction and analysis of micro PEMFC temperature, current density and water distributions in two different fuel flow rates (15 cm3/min and 40 cm3/min). Simulation results show that temperature distribution within the micro PEMFC is affected by water distribution in the membrane and indicate that low and uniform temperature distribution in the membrane at low fuel flow rates leads to increased membrane water distribution and obtains superior micro PEMFC current density distribution under 0.4V operating voltage. Model predictions are well within those known for experimental mechanism phenomena.

An automated model-based aim point distribution system for solar towers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarzbözl, Peter; Rong, Amadeus; Macke, Ansgar; Säck, Jan-Peter; Ulmer, Steffen

2016-05-01

Distribution of heliostat aim points is a major task during central receiver operation, as the flux distribution produced by the heliostats varies continuously with time. Known methods for aim point distribution are mostly based on simple aim point patterns and focus on control strategies to meet local temperature and flux limits of the receiver. Lowering the peak flux on the receiver to avoid hot spots and maximizing thermal output are obviously competing targets that call for a comprehensive optimization process. This paper presents a model-based method for online aim point optimization that includes the current heliostat field mirror quality derived through an automated deflectometric measurement process.

Numerical investigations of arc behaviour in gas metal arc welding using ANSYS CFX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnick, M.; Fuessel, U.; Hertel, M.; Spille-Kohoff, A.; Murphy, A. B.

2011-06-01

Current numerical models of gas metal arc welding (GMAW) are trying to combine magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models of the arc and volume of fluid (VoF) models of metal transfer. They neglect vaporization and assume an argon atmosphere for the arc region, as it is common practice for models of gas tungsten arc welding. These models predict temperatures above 20 000 K and a temperature distribution similar to tungsten inert gas (TIG) arcs. However, current spectroscopic temperature measurements in GMAW arcs demonstrate much lower arc temperatures. In contrast to TIG arcs they found a central local minimum of the radial temperature distribution. The paper presents a GMAW arc model that considers metal vapour and which is in a very good agreement with experimentally observed temperatures. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the local central minimum in the radial temperature and the radial electric current density distributions for the first time. The axially symmetric model of the welding torch, the work piece, the wire and the arc (fluid domain) implements MHD as well as turbulent mixing and thermal demixing of metal vapour in argon. The mass fraction of iron vapour obtained from the simulation shows an accumulation in the arc core and another accumulation on the fringes of the arc at 2000 to 5000 K. The demixing effects lead to very low concentrations of iron between these two regions. Sensitive analyses demonstrate the influence of the transport and radiation properties of metal vapour, and the evaporation rate relative to the wire feed. Finally the model predictions are compared with the measuring results of Zielińska et al.

Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

2016-11-21

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

Calculations on the Back of an Envelope Model: Applying Seasonal Fecundity Models to Species’ Range Limits

EPA Science Inventory

Most predictions of the effect of climate change on species’ ranges are based on correlations between climate and current species’ distributions. These so-called envelope models may be a good first approximation, but we need demographically mechanistic models to incorporate the ...

BRAIN initiative: fast and parallel solver for real-time monitoring of the eddy current in the brain for TMS applications.

PubMed

Sabouni, Abas; Pouliot, Philippe; Shmuel, Amir; Lesage, Frederic

2014-01-01

This paper introduce a fast and efficient solver for simulating the induced (eddy) current distribution in the brain during transcranial magnetic stimulation procedure. This solver has been integrated with MRI and neuronavigation software to accurately model the electromagnetic field and show eddy current in the head almost in real-time. To examine the performance of the proposed technique, we used a 3D anatomically accurate MRI model of the 25 year old female subject.

Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

PubMed

Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

2017-01-01

Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have narrow geographic distributions, and are thus prone to future shifts away from the climatic conditions in these parks in current climates. In other cases, some parks are broadly similar to large geographic regions surrounding the park or have climatic envelopes that may persist into near-term climate change. Larger parks predict larger climatic envelopes, in current conditions, but on average the predicted area of climate envelopes are smaller in our single future conditions scenario. Individual units in a protected area network may vary in the potential for climate adaptation, and adaptive management strategies for the network should account for the landscape contexts of the geodiversity or climate diversity within individual units. Conservation strategies, including maintaining connectivity, assessing the feasibility of assisted migration and other landscape restoration or enhancements can be optimized using analysis methods to assess the spatial properties of protected area networks in biogeographic and macroecological contexts.

Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution using maximum entropy.

PubMed

Nazeri, Mona; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman; Madani, Nima; Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Bahman, Abdul Rani; Kumar, Lalit

2012-01-01

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear's population.

Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) Distribution Using Maximum Entropy

PubMed Central

Nazeri, Mona; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman; Madani, Nima; Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Bahman, Abdul Rani; Kumar, Lalit

2012-01-01

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear’s population. PMID:23110182

Quantile Regression Models for Current Status Data

PubMed Central

Ou, Fang-Shu; Zeng, Donglin; Cai, Jianwen

2016-01-01

Current status data arise frequently in demography, epidemiology, and econometrics where the exact failure time cannot be determined but is only known to have occurred before or after a known observation time. We propose a quantile regression model to analyze current status data, because it does not require distributional assumptions and the coefficients can be interpreted as direct regression effects on the distribution of failure time in the original time scale. Our model assumes that the conditional quantile of failure time is a linear function of covariates. We assume conditional independence between the failure time and observation time. An M-estimator is developed for parameter estimation which is computed using the concave-convex procedure and its confidence intervals are constructed using a subsampling method. Asymptotic properties for the estimator are derived and proven using modern empirical process theory. The small sample performance of the proposed method is demonstrated via simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed method to analyze data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging. PMID:27994307

10 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption of Distribution Transformers

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... test more than one unit of a basic model to determine the efficiency of that basic model, the... one ampere and the test current is limited to 15 percent of the winding current. Connect the... 10 Energy 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption...

10 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption of Distribution Transformers

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... test more than one unit of a basic model to determine the efficiency of that basic model, the... one ampere and the test current is limited to 15 percent of the winding current. Connect the... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption...

10 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption of Distribution Transformers

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... test more than one unit of a basic model to determine the efficiency of that basic model, the... one ampere and the test current is limited to 15 percent of the winding current. Connect the... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption...

10 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption of Distribution Transformers

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... test more than one unit of a basic model to determine the efficiency of that basic model, the... one ampere and the test current is limited to 15 percent of the winding current. Connect the... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption...

A Current Perspective on the Historical Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Muriquis (Brachyteles spp.): Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The muriqui (Brachyteles spp.), endemic to the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, is the largest primate in South America and is endangered, mainly due to habitat loss. Its distribution limits are still uncertain and need to be resolved in order to determine their true conservation status. Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been used to estimate potential species distributions, even when information is incomplete. Here, we developed an environmental suitability model for the two endangered species of muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus and B. arachnoides) using Maxent software. Due to historical absence of muriquis, areas with predicted high habitat suitability yet historically never occupied, were excluded from the predicted historical distribution. Combining that information with the model, it is evident that rivers are potential dispersal barriers for the muriquis. Moreover, although the two species are environmentally separated in a large part of its distribution, there is a potential contact zone where the species apparently do not overlap. This separation might be due to either a physical (i.e., Serra da Mantiqueira mountains) or a biotic barrier (the species exclude one another). Therefore, in addition to environmental characteristics, physical and biotic barriers potentially shaped the limits of the muriqui historical range. Based on these considerations, we proposed the adjustment of their historical distributional limits. Currently only 7.6% of the predicted historical distribution of B. hypoxanthus and 12.9% of B. arachnoides remains forested and able to sustain viable muriqui populations. In addition to measurement of habitat loss we also identified areas for conservation concern where new muriqui populations might be found. PMID:26943910

NCI Expands Repository of Cancer Research Models

Cancer.gov

NCI is expanding its Patient-Derived Models Repository (PDMR), which generates and distributes models like patient-derived xenografts and organoids. In this Cancer Currents Q&A with Drs. Yvonne Evrard and James Doroshow, learn how the expansion can help cancer researchers make more rapid progress.

Spatial distribution of specialized cardiac care units in the state of Santa Catarina

PubMed Central

Cirino, Silviana; Lima, Fabiana Santos; Gonçalves, Mirian Buss

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the methodology used for assessing the spatial distribution of specialized cardiac care units. METHODS A modeling and simulation method was adopted for the practical application of cardiac care service in the state of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil, using the p-median model. As the state is divided into 21 health care regions, a methodology which suggests an arrangement of eight intermediate cardiac care units was analyzed, comparing the results obtained using data from 1996 and 2012. RESULTS Results obtained using data from 2012 indicated significant changes in the state, particularly in relation to the increased population density in the coastal regions. The current study provided a satisfactory response, indicated by the homogeneity of the results regarding the location of the intermediate cardiac care units and their respective regional administrations, thereby decreasing the average distance traveled by users to health care units, located in higher population density areas. The validity of the model was corroborated through the analysis of the allocation of the median vertices proposed in 1996 and 2012. CONCLUSIONS The current spatial distribution of specialized cardiac care units is more homogeneous and reflects the demographic changes that have occurred in the state over the last 17 years. The comparison between the two simulations and the current configuration showed the validity of the proposed model as an aid in decision making for system expansion. PMID:26039394

Crayfishes (Decapoda : Cambaridae) of Oklahoma: identification, distributions, and natural history.

PubMed

Morehouse, Reid L; Tobler, Michael

2013-01-01

We furnish an updated crayfish species list for the state of Oklahoma (United States of America), including an updated and illustrated dichotomous key. In addition, we include species accounts that summarize general characteristics, life coloration, similar species, distribution and habitat, life history, and syntopic species. Current and potential distributions were analyzed using ecological niche models to provide a critical resource for the identification of areas with conservation priorities and potential susceptibility to invasive species. Currently, Oklahoma harbors 30 species of crayfish, two of which were recently discovered. Eastern Oklahoma has the highest species diversity, as this area represents the western distribution extent for several species. The work herein provides baseline data for future work on crayfish biology and conservation in Oklahoma and surrounding states.

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

2018-03-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

Current distribution in tissues with conducted electrical weapons operated in drive-stun mode.

PubMed

Panescu, Dorin; Kroll, Mark W; Brave, Michael

2016-08-01

The TASER® conducted electrical weapon (CEW) is best known for delivering electrical pulses that can temporarily incapacitate subjects by overriding normal motor control. The alternative drive-stun mode is less understood and the goal of this paper is to analyze the distribution of currents in tissues when the CEW is operated in this mode. Finite element modeling (FEM) was used to approximate current density in tissues with boundary electrical sources placed 40 mm apart. This separation was equivalent to the distance between drive-stun mode TASER X26™, X26P, X2 CEW electrodes located on the device itself and between those located on the expended CEW cartridge. The FEMs estimated the amount of current flowing through various body tissues located underneath the electrodes. The FEM simulated the attenuating effects of both a thin and of a normal layer of fat. The resulting current density distributions were used to compute the residual amount of current flowing through deeper layers of tissue. Numerical modeling estimated that the skin, fat and skeletal muscle layers passed at least 86% or 91% of total CEW current, assuming a thin or normal fat layer thickness, respectively. The current density and electric field strength only exceeded thresholds which have increased probability for ventricular fibrillation (VFTJ), or for cardiac capture (CCTE), in the skin and the subdermal fat layers. The fat layer provided significant attenuation of drive-stun CEW currents. Beyond the skeletal muscle layer, only fractional amounts of the total CEW current were estimated to flow. The regions presenting risk for VF induction or for cardiac capture were well away from the typical heart depth.

Analysis of Jingdong Mall Logistics Distribution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Kang; Cheng, Feng

In recent years, the development of electronic commerce in our country to speed up the pace. The role of logistics has been highlighted, more and more electronic commerce enterprise are beginning to realize the importance of logistics in the success or failure of the enterprise. In this paper, the author take Jingdong Mall for example, performing a SWOT analysis of their current situation of self-built logistics system, find out the problems existing in the current Jingdong Mall logistics distribution and give appropriate recommendations.

SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Bennett, Joseph R; French, Connor M

2017-01-01

SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs) to maximize each model's discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have 'universal' analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism), generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates-to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user.

A simple theoretical model for ⁶³Ni betavoltaic battery.

PubMed

Zuo, Guoping; Zhou, Jianliang; Ke, Guotu

2013-12-01

A numerical simulation of the energy deposition distribution in semiconductors is performed for ⁶³Ni beta particles. Results show that the energy deposition distribution exhibits an approximate exponential decay law. A simple theoretical model is developed for ⁶³Ni betavoltaic battery based on the distribution characteristics. The correctness of the model is validated by two literature experiments. Results show that the theoretical short-circuit current agrees well with the experimental results, and the open-circuit voltage deviates from the experimental results in terms of the influence of the PN junction defects and the simplification of the source. The theoretical model can be applied to ⁶³Ni and ¹⁴⁷Pm betavoltaic batteries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia.

PubMed

Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moilanen, Atte; Graham, Erin M

2017-01-01

With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia

PubMed Central

VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moilanen, Atte; Graham, Erin M.

2017-01-01

With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species. PMID:28222199

Simulations of phase space distributions of storm time proton ring current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Margaret W.; Lyons, Larry R.; Schulz, Michael

1994-01-01

We use results of guiding-center simulations of ion transport to map phase space densities of the stormtime proton ring current. We model a storm as a sequence of substorm-associated enhancements in the convection electric field. Our pre-storm phase space distribution is an analytical solution to a steady-state transport model in which quiet-time radial diffusion balances charge exchange. This pre-storm phase space spectra at L approximately 2 to 4 reproduce many of the features found in observed quiet-time spectra. Using results from simulations of ion transport during model storms having main phases of 3, 6, and 12 hr, we map phase space distributions from the pre-storm distribution in accordance with Liouville's theorem. We find stormtime enhancements in the phase space densities at energies E approximately 30-160 keV for L approximately 2.5 to 4. These enhancements agree well with the observed stormtime ring current. For storms with shorter main phases (approximately 3 hr), the enhancements are caused mainly by the trapping of ions injected from open night side trajectories, and diffusive transport of higher-energy (greater than or approximately 160 keV) ions contributes little to the stormtime ring current. However, the stormtime ring current is augmented also by the diffusive transport of higher-energy ions (E greater than or approximately 160 keV) durinng stroms having longer main phases (greater than or approximately 6 hr). In order to account for the increase in Dst associated with the formation of the stormtime ring current, we estimate the enhancement in particle-energy content that results from stormtime ion transport in the equatorial magnetosphere. We find that transport alone cannot account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst typical of a major storm. However, we can account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst by realistically increasing the stormtime outer boundary value of the phase space density relative to the quiet-time value. We compute the magnetic field produced by the ring current itself and find that radial profiles of the magnetic field depression resemble those obtained from observational data.

Modified chloride diffusion model for concrete under the coupling effect of mechanical load and chloride salt environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Mingfeng; Lin, Dayong; Liu, Jianwen; Shi, Chenghua; Ma, Jianjun; Yang, Weichao; Yu, Xiaoniu

2018-03-01

For the purpose of investigating lining concrete durability, this study derives a modified chloride diffusion model for concrete based on the odd continuation of boundary conditions and Fourier transform. In order to achieve this, the linear stress distribution on a sectional structure is considered, detailed procedures and methods are presented for model verification and parametric analysis. Simulation results show that the chloride diffusion model can reflect the effects of linear stress distribution of the sectional structure on the chloride diffusivity with reliable accuracy. Along with the natural environmental characteristics of practical engineering structures, reference value ranges of model parameters are provided. Furthermore, a chloride diffusion model is extended for the consideration of multi-factor coupling of linear stress distribution, chloride concentration and diffusion time. Comparison between model simulation and typical current research results shows that the presented model can produce better considerations with a greater universality.

Determinants of the electric field during transcranial direct current stimulation.

PubMed

Opitz, Alexander; Paulus, Walter; Will, Susanne; Antunes, Andre; Thielscher, Axel

2015-04-01

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) causes a complex spatial distribution of the electric current flow in the head which hampers the accurate localization of the stimulated brain areas. In this study we show how various anatomical features systematically shape the electric field distribution in the brain during tDCS. We constructed anatomically realistic finite element (FEM) models of two individual heads including conductivity anisotropy and different skull layers. We simulated a widely employed electrode montage to induce motor cortex plasticity and moved the stimulating electrode over the motor cortex in small steps to examine the resulting changes of the electric field distribution in the underlying cortex. We examined the effect of skull thickness and composition on the passing currents showing that thinner skull regions lead to higher electric field strengths. This effect is counteracted by a larger proportion of higher conducting spongy bone in thicker regions leading to a more homogenous current over the skull. Using a multiple regression model we could identify key factors that determine the field distribution to a significant extent, namely the thicknesses of the cerebrospinal fluid and the skull, the gyral depth and the distance to the anode and cathode. These factors account for up to 50% of the spatial variation of the electric field strength. Further, we demonstrate that individual anatomical factors can lead to stimulation "hotspots" which are partly resistant to electrode positioning. Our results give valuable novel insights in the biophysical foundation of tDCS and highlight the importance to account for individual anatomical factors when choosing an electrode montage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional and climate forcing on forage fish and apex predators in the California Current: new insights from a fully coupled ecosystem model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Rose, K.; Curchitser, E. N.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Costa, D. P.; Hedstrom, K.

2016-12-01

A fully coupled ecosystem model is used to describe the impact of regional and climate variability on changes in abundance and distribution of forage fish and apex predators in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel (NEMURO) embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel (ROMS), and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for two forage fish species (sardine and anchovy) and one apex predator (California sea lion). Sardine and anchovy are specifically included in the model as they exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances, and are commonly found in the diet of California sea lions. Output from the model demonstrates how regional-scale (i.e., upwelling intensity) and basin-scale (i.e., PDO and ENSO signals) physical processes control species distributions and predator-prey interactions on interannual time scales. The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions leads to the formation of seasonal hotspots where prey and predator spatially overlap. While specifically focused on sardine, anchovy and sea lions, the modeling framework presented here can provide new insights into the physical and biological mechanisms controlling trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

Direct measurement of concentration distribution within the boundary layer of an ion-exchange membrane.

PubMed

Choi, Jae-Hwan; Park, Jin-Soo; Moon, Seung-Hyeon

2002-07-15

In this study the concentration distributions within the diffusion boundary layer were obtained by directly measuring the potential drops while the currents (under- and overlimiting) passed through the Neosepta CMX cation-exchange membrane (Tokuyama Corp., Japan). Potential drops according to the distance from the membrane surface on the depleted side were measured using a microelectrode to obtain the concentration profile. From the concentration profiles obtained, it was observed that the diffusion boundary layers existed in the range of 300-350 microm, which reasonably coincide with the theoretical diffusion boundary layer thickness calculated from the limiting current density. Although there were some deviations between the concentrations determined from the Nernst model and those from experiments, it was confirmed that the Nernst model effectively depicts the transport phenomena in the ion-exchange membrane system. In addition it was found that the salt concentration at the membrane surface increased when the currents applied exceeded the limiting current. It is thought that the concentration polarization formed in the diffusion boundary layer at currents near or lower than the limiting current was disturbed by a turbulent convection when the current was greater than the limiting current. As a consequence, the concentration at the membrane surface increased to a sufficient level for generation of the overlimiting current.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

PubMed

Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

2016-02-01

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information

Treesearch

H.K. Preisler; R.E. Burgan; J.C. Eidenshink; J.M. Klaver; R.W. Klaver

2009-01-01

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i)...

AN ACCELERATION MECHANISM FOR NEUTRON PRODUCTION IN Z-PINCH DISCHARGES,

DTIC Science & Technology

A model has been developed for the acceleration of deuterons in the tightly compressed column of a z-pinch discharge, in particular that of a plasma ... focus discharge. It was assumed that an annular current distribution undergoes a rapidly contracting transition to an axially peaked distribution, and

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective.

PubMed

Liénard, Jean; Harrison, John; Strigul, Nikolay

2016-08-01

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population.

PubMed

Alimi, Temitope O; Fuller, Douglas O; Qualls, Whitney A; Herrera, Socrates V; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quinones, Martha L; Lacerda, Marcus V G; Beier, John C

2015-08-20

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts. Employing presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent. Results from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km(2) of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km(2) by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution. As the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination.

Effects of trap density on drain current LFN and its model development for E-mode GaN MOS-HEMT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, D. K.; Lenka, T. R.

2017-12-01

In this paper the drain current low-frequency noise (LFN) of E-mode GaN MOS-HEMT is investigated for different gate insulators such as SiO2, Al2O3/Ga2O3/GdO3, HfO2/SiO2, La2O3/SiO2 and HfO2 with different trap densities by IFM based TCAD simulation. In order to analyze this an analytical model of drain current low frequency noise is developed. The model is developed by considering 2DEG carrier fluctuations, mobility fluctuations and the effects of 2DEG charge carrier fluctuations on the mobility. In the study of different gate insulators it is observed that carrier fluctuation is the dominant low frequency noise source and the non-uniform exponential distribution is critical to explain LFN behavior, so the analytical model is developed by considering uniform distribution of trap density. The model is validated with available experimental data from literature. The effect of total number of traps and gate length scaling on this low frequency noise due to different gate dielectrics is also investigated.

Some remarks about simulation of cosmic ray phenomena with use of nuclear interaction models based on the current SPS proton-antiproton data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wrotniak, J. A.; Yodh, G. B.

1985-01-01

The x-y controversy is studied by introducing models with as many features (except for x and y distributions) in common, as possible, to avoid an extrapolation problem, only primary energies of 500 TeV are considered. To prove the point, Monte Carlo simulations are performed of EAS generated by 500 TeV vertical primary protons. Four different nuclear interaction models were used. Two of them are described elsewhere. Two are: (1) Model M-Y00 - with inclusive x and y distributions behaving in a scaling way; and (2) Model M-F00 - at and below ISR energies (1 TeV in Lab) exactly equivalent to the above, then gradually changing to provide the distributions in rapidity at 155 TeV as given by SPS proton-antiproton. This was achieved by gradual decrease in the scale unit in x distributions of produced secondaries, as interaction energy increases. Other modifications to the M-Y00 model were made.

Comparison of Hall Thruster Plume Expansion Model with Experimental Data (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

Cartesian mesh. AQUILA, the focus of this study, is a hybrid PIC model that tracks particles along an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. COLISEUM is capable...measurements of the ion current density profile, ion energy distributions, and ion species fraction distributions using a nude Faraday probe...Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol.37 No.1. 6 Oh, D. and Hastings, D., “Three Dimensional PIC -DSMC Simulations of Hall Thruster Plumes and Analysis for

Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Tom R.; Harasti, David; Smith, Stephen D. A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.

2016-11-01

Climate change induced sea level rise will affect shallow estuarine habitats, which are already under threat from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Here, we present the results of modelling to predict potential impacts of climate change associated processes on seagrass distributions. We use a novel application of relative environmental suitability (RES) modelling to examine relationships between variables of physiological importance to seagrasses (light availability, wave exposure, and current flow) and seagrass distributions within 5 estuarine embayments. Models were constructed separately for Posidonia australis and Zostera muelleri subsp. capricorni using seagrass data from Port Stephens estuary, New South Wales, Australia. Subsequent testing of models used independent datasets from four other estuarine embayments (Wallis Lake, Lake Illawarra, Merimbula Lake, and Pambula Lake) distributed along 570 km of the east Australian coast. Relative environmental suitability models provided adequate predictions for seagrass distributions within Port Stephens and the other estuarine embayments, indicating that they may have broad regional application. Under the predictions of RES models, both sea level rise and increased turbidity are predicted to cause substantial seagrass losses in deeper estuarine areas, resulting in a net shoreward movement of seagrass beds. Seagrass species distribution models developed in this study provide a valuable tool to predict future shifts in estuarine seagrass distributions, allowing identification of areas for protection, monitoring and rehabilitation.

Lithium manganese oxide spinel electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darling, Robert Mason

Batteries based oil intercalation eletrodes are currently being considered for a variety of applications including automobiles. This thesis is concerned with the simulation and experimental investigation of one such system: spinel LiyMn2O4. A mathematical model simulating the behavior of an electrochemical cell containing all intercalation electrode is developed and applied to Li yMn2O4 based systems. The influence of the exchange current density oil the propagation of the reaction through the depth of the electrode is examined theoretically. Galvanostatic cycling and relaxation phenomena on open circuit are simulated for different particle-size distributions. The electrode with uniformly sized particles shows the best performance when the current is on, and relaxes towards equilibrium most quickly. The impedance of a porous electrode containing a particle-size distribution at low frequencies is investigated with all analytic solution and a simplified version of the mathematical model. The presence of the particle-size distribution leads to an apparent diffusion coefficient which has all incorrect concentration dependence. A Li/1 M LiClO4 in propylene carbonate (PC)/ LiyMn 2O4 cell is used to investigate the influence of side reactions oil the current-potential behavior of intercalation electrodes. Slow cyclic voltammograms and self-discharge data are combined to estimate the reversible potential of the host material and the kinetic parameters for the side reaction. This information is then used, together with estimates of the solid-state diffusion coefficient and main-reaction exchange current density, in a mathematical model of the system. Predictions from the model compare favorably with continuous cycling results and galvanostatic experiments with periodic current interruptions. The variation with respect to composition of' the diffusion coefficient of lithium in LiyMn2O4 is estimated from incomplete galvanostatic discharges following open-circult periods. The results compared favorably with those available in the literature. Dynamic Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate the concentration dependence of the diffusion coefficient fundamentally. The dynamic Monte Carlo predictions compare favorably with the experimental data.

Peculiarities of Spacecraft Photoelectron Shield Formation in Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veselov, Mikhail; Chugunin, Dmitriy

Traditionally, the current balance equations for a spacecraft in space plasma rely on the electric field of positively charged spacecraft. Equilibrium potential V is derived from currents outward and toward the spacecraft body. The currents are in turn functions of V. However, in reality photoelectrons move in both the electric field of the spacecraft and the Earth or the interplanetary magnetic field. This causes an anisotropic distribution of photoelectrons along a magnetic field line with the characteristic size of the order of several photoelectron gyro-radii. As a result, confinement of photoelectrons in the spacecraft-related electric field is much longer. Thus, a fraction of returned photoelectrons in the electron current toward the spacecraft can be rather great and may even dominate several times over the ambient electrons’ fraction. Modeled ph-electron trajectories as well as general photoelectron shield distribution around spacecraft are represented, and comparison of experimental data on the electron density with the magnetic flux tube model is discussed.

Speckle measurements of density and temperature profiles in a model gas circuit breaker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoller, P. C.; Panousis, E.; Carstensen, J.; Doiron, C. B.; Färber, R.

2015-01-01

Speckle imaging was used to measure the density and temperature distribution in the arc zone of a model high voltage circuit breaker during the high current phase and under conditions simulating those present during current-zero crossings (current-zero-like arc); the arc was stabilized by a transonic, axial flow of synthetic air. A single probe beam was used; thus, accurate reconstruction was only possible for axially symmetric gas flows and arc channels. The displacement of speckles with respect to a reference image was converted to a line-of-sight integrated deflection angle, which was in turn converted into an axially symmetric refractive index distribution using a multistep process that made use of the inverse Radon transform. The Gladstone-Dale relation, which gives the index of refraction as a function of density, was extended to high temperatures by taking into account dissociation and ionization processes. The temperature and density were determined uniquely by assuming that the pressure distribution in the case of cold gas flow (in the absence of an arc) is not modified significantly by the arc. The electric conductivity distribution was calculated from the temperature profile and compared to measurements of the arc voltage and to previous results published in the literature for similar experimental conditions.

A Wavelet-based Fast Discrimination of Transformer Magnetizing Inrush Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitayama, Masashi

Recently customers who need electricity of higher quality have been installing co-generation facilities. They can avoid voltage sags and other distribution system related disturbances by supplying electricity to important load from their generators. For another example, FRIENDS, highly reliable distribution system using semiconductor switches or storage devices based on power electronics technology, is proposed. These examples illustrates that the request for high reliability in distribution system is increasing. In order to realize these systems, fast relaying algorithms are indispensable. The author proposes a new method of detecting magnetizing inrush current using discrete wavelet transform (DWT). DWT provides the function of detecting discontinuity of current waveform. Inrush current occurs when transformer core becomes saturated. The proposed method detects spikes of DWT components derived from the discontinuity of the current waveform at both the beginning and the end of inrush current. Wavelet thresholding, one of the wavelet-based statistical modeling, was applied to detect the DWT component spikes. The proposed method is verified using experimental data using single-phase transformer and the proposed method is proved to be effective.

The Mars water cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, D. W.

1981-01-01

A model has been developed to test the hypothesis that the observed seasonal and latitudinal distribution of water on Mars is controlled by the sublimation and condensation of surface ice deposits in the Arctic and Antarctic, and the meridional transport of water vapor. Besides reproducing the observed water vapor distribution, the model correctly reproduces the presence of a large permanent ice cap in the Arctic and not in the Antarctic. No permanent ice reservoirs are predicted in the temperate or equatorial zones. Wintertime ice deposits in the Arctic are shown to be the source of the large water vapor abundances observed in the Arctic summertime, and the moderate water vapor abundances in the northern temperate region. Model calculations suggest that a year without dust storms results in very little change in the water vapor distribution. The current water distribution appears to be the equilibrium distribution for present atmospheric conditions.

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Pottier, Julien; Malenovský, Zbyněk; Psomas, Achilleas; Homolová, Lucie; Schaepman, Michael E.; Choler, Philippe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guisan, Antoine; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2014-01-01

Remote sensing using airborne imaging spectroscopy (AIS) is known to retrieve fundamental optical properties of ecosystems. However, the value of these properties for predicting plant species distribution remains unclear. Here, we assess whether such data can add value to topographic variables for predicting plant distributions in French and Swiss alpine grasslands. We fitted statistical models with high spectral and spatial resolution reflectance data and tested four optical indices sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf area index. We found moderate added-value of AIS data for predicting alpine plant species distribution. Contrary to expectations, differences between species distribution models (SDMs) were not linked to their local abundance or phylogenetic/functional similarity. Moreover, spectral signatures of species were found to be partly site-specific. We discuss current limits of AIS-based SDMs, highlighting issues of scale and informational content of AIS data. PMID:25079495

Influence of the carrier mobility distribution on the Hall and the Nernst effect measurements in n-type InSb

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madon, B.; Wegrowe, J.-E.; Drouhin, H.-J.

2016-01-14

In this study, we report magneto-resistance measurements on an n-doped InSb film, to separate the contributions of the electrical currents from the heat currents. We have demonstrated a prototype for a magnetic field sensor which is powered by heat currents and does not require any electrical current. We fabricated two Hall bars, where a low frequency (f = 0.05 Hz) AC current, was applied between the two contacts in one of the Hall bars. Separating the f and 2f components of the voltage measured across the second Hall bar was used to distinguish between the electrical and the heat contributions to the electronmore » currents. Our observations can be modeled using a Gaussian distribution of mobility within the sample.« less

Modeled ground magnetic signatures of flux transfer events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mchenry, Mark A.; Clauer, C. Robert

1987-01-01

The magnetic field on the ground due to a small (not greater than 200 km scale size) localized field-aligned current (FAC) system interacting with the ionosphere is calculated in terms of an integral over the ionospheric distribution of FAC. Two different candidate current systems for flux transfer events (FTEs) are considered: (1) a system which has current flowing down the center of a cylindrical flux tube with a return current uniformly distributed along the outside edge; and (2) a system which has upward current on one half of the perimeter of a cylindrical flux tube with downward current on the opposite half. The peak magnetic field on the ground is found to differ by a factor of 2 between the two systems, and the magnetic perturbations are in different directions depending on the observer's position.

Nonthermal electrons in the thick-target reverse-current model for hard X-ray bremsstrahlung

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litvinenko, Iu. E.; Somov, B. V.

1991-02-01

The behavior of the accelerated electrons escaping from a high-temperature source of primary energy in a solar flare is investigated. The direct current of fast electrons is supposed to be balanced by the reverse current of thermal electrons in the ambient colder plasma inside flare loops. The self-consistent kinetic problem is formulated, and the reverse-current electric field and the fast electron distribution function are found from its solution. The X-ray bremsstrahlung polarization is then calculated from the distribution function. The difference of results from those in the case of thermal runaway electrons (Diakonov and Somov, 1988) is discussed. The solutions with and without an account taken of the effect of a reverse-current electric field are also compared.

An alternative model to distribute VO software to WLCG sites based on CernVM-FS: a prototype at PIC Tier1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanciotti, E.; Merino, G.; Bria, A.; Blomer, J.

2011-12-01

In a distributed computing model as WLCG the software of experiment specific application software has to be efficiently distributed to any site of the Grid. Application software is currently installed in a shared area of the site visible for all Worker Nodes (WNs) of the site through some protocol (NFS, AFS or other). The software is installed at the site by jobs which run on a privileged node of the computing farm where the shared area is mounted in write mode. This model presents several drawbacks which cause a non-negligible rate of job failure. An alternative model for software distribution based on the CERN Virtual Machine File System (CernVM-FS) has been tried at PIC, the Spanish Tierl site of WLCG. The test bed used and the results are presented in this paper.

Task allocation model for minimization of completion time in distributed computer systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jai-Ping; Steidley, Carl W.

1993-08-01

A task in a distributed computing system consists of a set of related modules. Each of the modules will execute on one of the processors of the system and communicate with some other modules. In addition, precedence relationships may exist among the modules. Task allocation is an essential activity in distributed-software design. This activity is of importance to all phases of the development of a distributed system. This paper establishes task completion-time models and task allocation models for minimizing task completion time. Current work in this area is either at the experimental level or without the consideration of precedence relationships among modules. The development of mathematical models for the computation of task completion time and task allocation will benefit many real-time computer applications such as radar systems, navigation systems, industrial process control systems, image processing systems, and artificial intelligence oriented systems.

Don't Fear Optimality: Sampling for Probabilistic-Logic Sequence Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thon, Ingo

One of the current challenges in artificial intelligence is modeling dynamic environments that change due to the actions or activities undertaken by people or agents. The task of inferring hidden states, e.g. the activities or intentions of people, based on observations is called filtering. Standard probabilistic models such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks are able to solve this task efficiently using approximative methods such as particle filters. However, these models do not support logical or relational representations. The key contribution of this paper is the upgrade of a particle filter algorithm for use with a probabilistic logical representation through the definition of a proposal distribution. The performance of the algorithm depends largely on how well this distribution fits the target distribution. We adopt the idea of logical compilation into Binary Decision Diagrams for sampling. This allows us to use the optimal proposal distribution which is normally prohibitively slow.

Distributed Aviation Concepts and Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Mark D.

2008-01-01

Aviation has experienced one hundred years of evolution, resulting in the current air transportation system dominated by commercial airliners in a hub and spoke infrastructure. While the first fifty years involved disruptive technologies that required frequent vehicle adaptation, the second fifty years produced a stable evolutionary optimization of decreasing costs with increasing safety. This optimization has resulted in traits favoring a centralized service model with high vehicle productivity and cost efficiency. However, it may also have resulted in a system that is not sufficiently robust to withstand significant system disturbances. Aviation is currently facing rapid change from issues such as environmental damage, terrorism threat, congestion and capacity limitations, and cost of energy. Currently, these issues are leading to a loss of service for weaker spoke markets. These catalysts and a lack of robustness could result in a loss of service for much larger portions of the aviation market. The impact of other competing transportation services may be equally important as casual factors of change. Highway system forecasts indicate a dramatic slow down as congestion reaches a point of non-linearly increasing delay. In the next twenty-five years, there is the potential for aviation to transform itself into a more robust, scalable, adaptive, secure, safe, affordable, convenient, efficient and environmentally friendly system. To achieve these characteristics, the new system will likely be based on a distributed model that enables more direct services. Short range travel is already demonstrating itself to be inefficient with a centralized model, providing opportunities for emergent distributed services through air-taxi models. Technologies from the on-demand revolution in computers and communications are now available as major drivers for aviation on-demand adaptation. Other technologies such as electric propulsion are currently transforming the automobile industry, and will also significantly alter the functionality of future distributed aviation concepts. Many hurdles exist, including technology, regulation, and perception. Aviation has an inherent governmental role not present in other recent on-demand transformations, which may pose a risk of curtailing aviation democratization .

Predicting geographically distributed adult dental decay in the greater Auckland region of New Zealand.

PubMed

Rocha, C M; Kruger, E; Whyman, R; Tennant, M

2014-06-01

To model the geographic distribution of current (and treated) dental decay on a high-resolution geographic basis for the Auckland region of New Zealand. The application of matrix-based mathematics to modelling adult dental disease-based on known population risk profiles to provide a detailed map of the dental caries distribution for the greater Auckland region. Of the 29 million teeth in adults in the region some 1.2 million (4%) are suffering decay whilst 7.2 million (25%) have previously suffered decay and are now restored. The model provides a high-resolution picture of where the disease burden lies geographically and presents to health planners a method for developing future service plans.

A new spatial snow distribution in hydrological models parameterized from observed spatial variability of precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn

2016-04-01

The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters is not a well suited tool for prediction under conditions for which is has not been calibrated. Important tasks for hydrological modelling such as prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change are hence not solved satisfactory. In order to reduce the number of calibration parameters in hydrological models we have introduced a new model which uses a dynamic gamma distribution as the spatial frequency distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameters are estimated from observed spatial variability of precipitation and the magnitude of accumulation and melting events and are hence not subject to calibration. The relationship between spatial mean and variance of precipitation is found to follow a pattern where decreasing temporal correlation with increasing accumulation or duration of the event leads to a levelling off or even a decrease of the spatial variance. The new model for snow distribution is implemented in the, already parameter parsimonious, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) hydrological model and was tested for 71 Norwegian catchments. We compared the new snow distribution model with the current operational snow distribution model where a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution. Results show that the precision of runoff simulations is equal, but that the new snow distribution model better simulates snow covered area (SCA) when compared with MODIS satellite derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" is prevented and hence spurious trends in SWE.

Ontology for Life-Cycle Modeling of Electrical Distribution Systems: Model View Definition

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

building information models ( BIM ) at the coordinated design stage of building construction. 1.3 Approach To...standard for exchanging Building Information Modeling ( BIM ) data, which defines hundreds of classes for common use in software, currently supported by...specifications, Construction Operations Building in- formation exchange (COBie), Building Information Modeling ( BIM ) 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF:

A Single-Boundary Accumulator Model of Response Times in an Addition Verification Task

PubMed Central

Faulkenberry, Thomas J.

2017-01-01

Current theories of mathematical cognition offer competing accounts of the interplay between encoding and calculation in mental arithmetic. Additive models propose that manipulations of problem format do not interact with the cognitive processes used in calculation. Alternatively, interactive models suppose that format manipulations have a direct effect on calculation processes. In the present study, we tested these competing models by fitting participants' RT distributions in an arithmetic verification task with a single-boundary accumulator model (the shifted Wald distribution). We found that in addition to providing a more complete description of RT distributions, the accumulator model afforded a potentially more sensitive test of format effects. Specifically, we found that format affected drift rate, which implies that problem format has a direct impact on calculation processes. These data give further support for an interactive model of mental arithmetic. PMID:28769853

Physics-driven Spatiotemporal Regularization for High-dimensional Predictive Modeling: A Novel Approach to Solve the Inverse ECG Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Bing; Yang, Hui

2016-12-01

This paper presents a novel physics-driven spatiotemporal regularization (STRE) method for high-dimensional predictive modeling in complex healthcare systems. This model not only captures the physics-based interrelationship between time-varying explanatory and response variables that are distributed in the space, but also addresses the spatial and temporal regularizations to improve the prediction performance. The STRE model is implemented to predict the time-varying distribution of electric potentials on the heart surface based on the electrocardiogram (ECG) data from the distributed sensor network placed on the body surface. The model performance is evaluated and validated in both a simulated two-sphere geometry and a realistic torso-heart geometry. Experimental results show that the STRE model significantly outperforms other regularization models that are widely used in current practice such as Tikhonov zero-order, Tikhonov first-order and L1 first-order regularization methods.

Electron beam generation in the turbulent plasma of Z-pinch discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikhrev, Victor V.; Baronova, Elena O.

1997-05-01

Numerical modeling of the process of electron beam generation in z-pinch discharges are presented. The proposed model represents the electron beam generation under turbulent plasma conditions. Strong current distribution inhomogeneity in the plasma column has been accounted for the adequate generation process investigation. Electron beam is generated near the maximum of compression due to run away mechanism and it is not related with the current break effect.

A comparison between block and smooth modeling in finite element simulations of tDCS*

PubMed Central

Indahlastari, Aprinda; Sadleir, Rosalind J.

2018-01-01

Current density distributions in five selected structures, namely, anterior superior temporal gyrus (ASTG), hippocampus (HIP), inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), occipital lobe (OCC) and pre-central gyrus (PRC) were investigated as part of a comparison between electrostatic finite element models constructed directly from MRI-resolution data (block models), and smoothed tetrahedral finite element models (smooth models). Three electrode configurations were applied, mimicking different tDCS therapies. Smooth model simulations were found to require three times longer to complete. The percentage differences between mean and median current densities of each model type in arbitrarily chosen brain structures ranged from −33.33–48.08%. No clear relationship was found between structure volumes and current density differences between the two model types. Tissue regions nearby the electrodes demonstrated the least percentage differences between block and smooth models. Therefore, block models may be adequate to predict current density values in cortical regions presumed targeted by tDCS. PMID:26737023

Numerical study of the process parameters in spark plasma sintering (sps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Redwan Jahid

Spark plasma sintering (SPS) is one of the most widely used sintering techniques that utilizes pulsed direct current together with uniaxial pressure to consolidate a wide variety of materials. The unique mechanisms of SPS enable it to sinter powder compacts at a lower temperature and in a shorter time than the conventional hot pressing, hot isostatic pressing and vacuum sintering process. One of the limitations of SPS is the presence of temperature gradients inside the sample, which could result in non-uniform physical and microstructural properties. Detailed study of the temperature and current distributions inside the sintered sample is necessary to minimize the temperature gradients and achieve desired properties. In the present study, a coupled thermal-electric model was developed using finite element codes in ABAQUS software to investigate the temperature and current distributions inside the conductive and non-conductive samples. An integrated experimental-numerical methodology was implemented to determine the system contact resistances accurately. The developed sintering model was validated by a series of experiments, which showed good agreements with simulation results. The temperature distribution inside the sample depends on some process parameters such as sample and tool geometry, punch and die position, applied current and thermal insulation around the die. The role of these parameters on sample temperature distribution was systematically analyzed. The findings of this research could prove very useful for the reliable production of large size sintered samples with controlled and tailored properties.

Internet of Things: a possible change in the distributed modeling and simulation architecture paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riecken, Mark; Lessmann, Kurt; Schillero, David

2016-05-01

The Data Distribution Service (DDS) was started by the Object Management Group (OMG) in 2004. Currently, DDS is one of the contenders to support the Internet of Things (IoT) and the Industrial IOT (IIoT). DDS has also been used as a distributed simulation architecture. Given the anticipated proliferation of IoT and II devices, along with the explosive growth of sensor technology, can we expect this to have an impact on the broader community of distributed simulation? If it does, what is the impact and which distributed simulation domains will be most affected? DDS shares many of the same goals and characteristics of distributed simulation such as the need to support scale and an emphasis on Quality of Service (QoS) that can be tailored to meet the end user's needs. In addition, DDS has some built-in features such as security that are not present in traditional distributed simulation protocols. If the IoT and II realize their potential application, we predict a large base of technology to be built around this distributed data paradigm, much of which could be directly beneficial to the distributed M&S community. In this paper we compare some of the perceived gaps and shortfalls of current distributed M&S technology to the emerging capabilities of DDS built around the IoT. Although some trial work has been conducted in this area, we propose a more focused examination of the potential of these new technologies and their applicability to current and future problems in distributed M&S. The Internet of Things (IoT) and its data communications mechanisms such as the Data Distribution System (DDS) share properties in common with distributed modeling and simulation (M&S) and its protocols such as the High Level Architecture (HLA) and the Test and Training Enabling Architecture (TENA). This paper proposes a framework based on the sensor use case for how the two communities of practice (CoP) can benefit from one another and achieve greater capability in practical distributed computing.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a demonstration of equifinality. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error combined with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

An object-based storage model for distributed remote sensing images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhanwu; Li, Zhongmin; Zheng, Sheng

2006-10-01

It is very difficult to design an integrated storage solution for distributed remote sensing images to offer high performance network storage services and secure data sharing across platforms using current network storage models such as direct attached storage, network attached storage and storage area network. Object-based storage, as new generation network storage technology emerged recently, separates the data path, the control path and the management path, which solves the bottleneck problem of metadata existed in traditional storage models, and has the characteristics of parallel data access, data sharing across platforms, intelligence of storage devices and security of data access. We use the object-based storage in the storage management of remote sensing images to construct an object-based storage model for distributed remote sensing images. In the storage model, remote sensing images are organized as remote sensing objects stored in the object-based storage devices. According to the storage model, we present the architecture of a distributed remote sensing images application system based on object-based storage, and give some test results about the write performance comparison of traditional network storage model and object-based storage model.

Turning Noise into Signal: Utilizing Impressed Pipeline Currents for EM Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindau, Tobias; Becken, Michael

2017-04-01

Impressed Current Cathodic Protection (ICCP) systems are extensively used for the protection of central Europe's dense network of oil-, gas- and water pipelines against destruction by electrochemical corrosion. While ICCP systems usually provide protection by injecting a DC current into the pipeline, mandatory pipeline integrity surveys demand a periodical switching of the current. Consequently, the resulting time varying pipe currents induce secondary electric- and magnetic fields in the surrounding earth. While these fields are usually considered to be unwanted cultural noise in electromagnetic exploration, this work aims at utilizing the fields generated by the ICCP system for determining the electrical resistivity of the subsurface. The fundamental period of the switching cycles typically amounts to 15 seconds in Germany and thereby roughly corresponds to periods used in controlled source EM applications (CSEM). For detailed studies we chose an approximately 30km long pipeline segment near Herford, Germany as a test site. The segment is located close to the southern margin of the Lower Saxony Basin (LSB) and part of a larger gas pipeline composed of multiple segments. The current injected into the pipeline segment originates in a rectified 50Hz AC signal which is periodically switched on and off. In contrast to the usual dipole sources used in CSEM surveys, the current distribution along the pipeline is unknown and expected to be non-uniform due to coating defects that cause current to leak into the surrounding soil. However, an accurate current distribution is needed to model the fields generated by the pipeline source. We measured the magnetic fields at several locations above the pipeline and used Biot-Savarts-Law to estimate the currents decay function. The resulting frequency dependent current distribution shows a current decay away from the injection point as well as a frequency dependent phase shift which is increasing with distance from the injection point. Electric field data were recorded at 45 stations located in an area of about 60 square kilometers in the vicinity to the pipeline. Additionally, the injected source current was recorded directly at the injection point. Transfer functions between the local electric fields and the injected source current are estimated for frequencies ranging from 0.03Hz to 15Hz using robust time series processing techniques. The resulting transfer functions are inverted for a 3D conductivity model of the subsurface using an elaborate pipeline model. We interpret the model with regards to the local geologic setting, demonstrating the methods capabilities to image the subsurface.

Modified parton branching model for multi-particle production in hadronic collisions: Application to SUSY particle branching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuanyuan, Zhang

The stochastic branching model of multi-particle productions in high energy collision has theoretical basis in perturbative QCD, and also successfully describes the experimental data for a wide energy range. However, over the years, little attention has been put on the branching model for supersymmetric (SUSY) particles. In this thesis, a stochastic branching model has been built to describe the pure supersymmetric particle jets evolution. This model is a modified two-phase stochastic branching process, or more precisely a two phase Simple Birth Process plus Poisson Process. The general case that the jets contain both ordinary particle jets and supersymmetric particle jets has also been investigated. We get the multiplicity distribution of the general case, which contains a Hypergeometric function in its expression. We apply this new multiplicity distribution to the current experimental data of pp collision at center of mass energy √s = 0.9, 2.36, 7 TeV. The fitting shows the supersymmetric particles haven't participate branching at current collision energy.

Ring Current Development During Storm Main Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Moore, Thomas E.; Greenspan, Marian E.

1996-01-01

The development of the ring current ions in the inner magnetosphere during the main phase of a magnetic storm is studied. The temporal and spatial evolution of the ion phase space densities in a dipole field are calculated using a three dimensional ring current model, considering charge exchange and Coulomb losses along drift paths. The simulation starts with a quiet time distribution. The model is tested by comparing calculated ion fluxes with Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/CCE measurement during the storm main phase on May 2, 1986. Most of the calculated omnidirectional fluxes are in good agreement with the data except on the dayside inner edge (L less than 2.5) of the ring current, where the ion fluxes are underestimated. The model also reproduces the measured pitch angle distributions of ions with energies below 10 keV. At higher energy, an additional diffusion in pitch angle is necessary in order to fit the data. The role of the induced electric field on the ring current dynamics is also examined by simulating a series of substorm activities represented by stretching and collapsing the magnetic field lines. In response to the impulsively changing fields, the calculated ion energy content fluctuates about a mean value that grows steadily with the enhanced quiescent field.

Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.

PubMed

Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M

2017-06-01

Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage-grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range, U.S.A.

PubMed

Knick, Steven T; Hanser, Steven E; Preston, Kristine L

2013-06-01

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage-grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage-grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage-grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km(2) region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D (2) model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species-habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage-grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D (2) (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage-grouse required sagebrush-dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage-grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land-use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage-grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage-grouse populations.

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage-grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knick, Steven T.; Hanser, Steven E.; Preston, Kristine L.

2013-01-01

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage-grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage-grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage-grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km2 region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D2 model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species–habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage-grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D2 (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage-grouse required sagebrush-dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage-grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land-use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage-grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage-grouse populations.

A Dynamic Stimulus-Driven Model of Signal Detection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Brandon M.; Van Zandt, Trisha; Brown, Scott

2011-01-01

Signal detection theory forms the core of many current models of cognition, including memory, choice, and categorization. However, the classic signal detection model presumes the a priori existence of fixed stimulus representations--usually Gaussian distributions--even when the observer has no experience with the task. Furthermore, the classic…

A Noncentral "t" Regression Model for Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Camilli, Gregory; de la Torre, Jimmy; Chiu, Chia-Yi

2010-01-01

In this article, three multilevel models for meta-analysis are examined. Hedges and Olkin suggested that effect sizes follow a noncentral "t" distribution and proposed several approximate methods. Raudenbush and Bryk further refined this model; however, this procedure is based on a normal approximation. In the current research literature, this…

The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

2015-11-01

The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

A model-based method for estimating Ca2+ release fluxes from linescan images in Xenopus oocytes.

PubMed

Baran, Irina; Popescu, Anca

2009-09-01

We propose a model-based method of interpreting linescan images observed in Xenopus oocytes with the use of Oregon Green-1 as a fluorescent dye. We use a detailed modeling formalism based on numerical simulations that incorporate physical barriers for local diffusion, and, by assuming a Gaussian distribution of release durations, we derive the distributions of release Ca(2+) amounts and currents, fluorescence amplitudes, and puff widths. We analyze a wide set of available data collected from 857 and 281 events observed in the animal and the vegetal hemispheres of the oocyte, respectively. A relatively small fraction of events appear to involve coupling of two or three adjacent clusters of Ca(2+) releasing channels. In the animal hemisphere, the distribution of release currents with a mean of 1.4 pA presents a maximum at 1.0 pA and a rather long tail extending up to 5 pA. The overall distribution of liberated Ca(2+) amounts exhibits a dominant peak at 120 fC, a smaller peak at 375 fC, and an average of 166 fC. Ca(2+) amounts and release fluxes in the vegetal hemisphere appear to be 3.6 and 1.6 times smaller than in the animal hemisphere, respectively. Predicted diameters of elemental release sites are approximately 1.0 microm in the animal and approximately 0.5 microm in the vegetal hemisphere, but the side-to-side separation between adjacent sites appears to be identical (approximately 0.4 microm). By fitting the model to individual puffs we can estimate the quantity of liberated calcium, the release current, the orientation of the scan line, and the dimension of the corresponding release site.

Predicting connectivity of green turtles at Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific: a focus on mtDNA and dispersal modelling

PubMed Central

Naro-Maciel, Eugenia; Gaughran, Stephen J.; Putman, Nathan F.; Amato, George; Arengo, Felicity; Dutton, Peter H.; McFadden, Katherine W.; Vintinner, Erin C.; Sterling, Eleanor J.

2014-01-01

Population connectivity and spatial distribution are fundamentally related to ecology, evolution and behaviour. Here, we combined powerful genetic analysis with simulations of particle dispersal in a high-resolution ocean circulation model to investigate the distribution of green turtles foraging at the remote Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, central Pacific. We analysed mitochondrial sequences from turtles (n = 349) collected there over 5 years (2008–2012). Genetic analysis assigned natal origins almost exclusively (approx. 97%) to the West Central and South Central Pacific combined Regional Management Units. Further, our modelling results indicated that turtles could potentially drift from rookeries to Palmyra Atoll via surface currents along a near-Equatorial swathe traversing the Pacific. Comparing findings from genetics and modelling highlighted the complex impacts of ocean currents and behaviour on natal origins. Although the Palmyra feeding ground was highly differentiated genetically from others in the Indo-Pacific, there was no significant differentiation among years, sexes or stage-classes at the Refuge. Understanding the distribution of this foraging population advances knowledge of green turtles and contributes to effective conservation planning for this threatened species. PMID:24451389

Predicting connectivity of green turtles at Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific: a focus on mtDNA and dispersal modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naro-Maciel, Eugenia; Gaughran, Stephen J.; Putman, Nathan F.; Amato, George; Arengo, Felicity; Dutton, Peter H.; McFadden, Katherine W.; Vintinner, Erin C.; Sterling, Eleanor J.

2014-01-01

Population connectivity and spatial distribution are fundamentally related to ecology, evolution and behaviour. Here, we combined powerful genetic analysis with simulations of particle dispersal in a high-resolution ocean circulation model to investigate the distribution of green turtles foraging at the remote Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, central Pacific. We analysed mitochondrial sequences from turtles (n = 349) collected there over 5 years (2008–2012). Genetic analysis assigned natal origins almost exclusively (approx. 97%) to the West Central and South Central Pacific combined Regional Management Units. Further, our modelling results indicated that turtles could potentially drift from rookeries to Palmyra Atoll via surface currents along a near-Equatorial swathe traversing the Pacific. Comparing findings from genetics and modelling highlighted the complex impacts of ocean currents and behaviour on natal origins. Although the Palmyra feeding ground was highly differentiated genetically from others in the Indo-Pacific, there was no significant differentiation among years, sexes or stage-classes at the Refuge. Understanding the distribution of this foraging population advances knowledge of green turtles and contributes to effective conservation planning for this threatened species.

3D analysis of eddy current loss in the permanent magnet coupling.

PubMed

Zhu, Zina; Meng, Zhuo

2016-07-01

This paper first presents a 3D analytical model for analyzing the radial air-gap magnetic field between the inner and outer magnetic rotors of the permanent magnet couplings by using the Amperian current model. Based on the air-gap field analysis, the eddy current loss in the isolation cover is predicted according to the Maxwell's equations. A 3D finite element analysis model is constructed to analyze the magnetic field spatial distributions and vector eddy currents, and then the simulation results obtained are analyzed and compared with the analytical method. Finally, the current losses of two types of practical magnet couplings are measured in the experiment to compare with the theoretical results. It is concluded that the 3D analytical method of eddy current loss in the magnet coupling is viable and could be used for the eddy current loss prediction of magnet couplings.

Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa Ana; Muñoz, Jesús; Rodríguez-Tapia, Gerardo; Feria Arroyo, T. Patricia; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex

2013-01-01

Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful. PMID:24260411

Climatic differentiation in polyploid apomictic Ranunculus auricomus complex in Europe.

PubMed

Paule, Juraj; Dunkel, Franz G; Schmidt, Marco; Gregor, Thomas

2018-05-21

Polyploidy and apomixis are important factors influencing plant distributions often resulting in range shifts, expansions and geographical parthenogenesis. We used the Ranunculus auricomus complex as a model to asses if the past and present distribution and climatic preferences were determined by these phenomena. Ecological differentiation among diploids and polyploids was tested by comparing the sets of climatic variables and distribution modelling using 191 novel ploidy estimations and 561 literature data. Significant differences in relative genome size on the diploid level were recorded between the "auricomus" and "cassubicus" groups and several new diploid occurrences were found in Slovenia and Hungary. The current distribution of diploids overlapped with the modelled paleodistribution (22 kyr BP), except Austria and the Carpathians, which are proposed to be colonized later on from refugia in the Balkans. Current and historical presence of diploids from the R. auricomus complex is suggested also for the foothills of the Caucasus. Based on comparisons of the climatic preferences polyploids from the R. auricomus complex occupy slightly drier and colder habitats than the diploids. The change of reproductive mode and selection due to competition with the diploid ancestors may have facilitated the establishment of polyploids within the R. auricomus complex in environments slightly cooler and drier, than those tolerated by diploid ancestors. Much broader distribution of polyploid apomicts may have been achieved due to faster colonization mediated by uniparental reproductive system.

Distribution of Spiked Drugs between Milk Fat, Skim Milk, Whey, Curd, and Milk Protein Fractions: Expansion of Partitioning Models.

PubMed

Lupton, Sara J; Shappell, Nancy W; Shelver, Weilin L; Hakk, Heldur

2018-01-10

The distributions of eight drugs (acetaminophen, acetylsalicylic acid/salicylic acid, ciprofloxacin, clarithromycin, flunixin, phenylbutazone, praziquantel, and thiamphenicol) were determined in milk products (skim milk, milk fat, curd, whey, and whey protein) and used to expand a previous model (from 7 drugs to 15 drugs) for predicting drug distribution. Phenylbutazone and praziquantel were found to distribute with the lipid and curd phases (≥50%). Flunixin distribution was lower but similar in direction (12% in milk fat, 39% in curd). Acetaminophen, ciprofloxacin, and praziquantel preferentially associated with casein proteins, whereas thiamphenicol and clarithromycin associated preferentially to whey proteins. Regression analyses for log [milk fat]/[skim milk] and log [curd]/[whey] had r 2 values of 0.63 and 0.67, respectively, with p of <0.001 for 15 drugs (7 previously tested and 8 currently tested). The robustness of the distribution model was enhanced by doubling the number of drugs originally tested.

Detecting defects in marine structures by using eddy current infrared thermography.

PubMed

Swiderski, W

2016-12-01

Eddy current infrared (IR) thermography is a new nondestructive testing (NDT) technique used for the detection of cracks in electroconductive materials. By combining the well-established inspection methods of eddy current NDT and IR thermography, this technique uses induced eddy currents to heat test samples. In this way, IR thermography allows the visualization of eddy current distribution that is distorted in defect sites. This paper discusses the results of numerical modeling of eddy current IR thermography procedures in application to marine structures.

The generalized truncated exponential distribution as a model for earthquake magnitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, Mathias

2015-04-01

The random distribution of small, medium and large earthquake magnitudes follows an exponential distribution (ED) according to the Gutenberg-Richter relation. But a magnitude distribution is truncated in the range of very large magnitudes because the earthquake energy is finite and the upper tail of the exponential distribution does not fit well observations. Hence the truncated exponential distribution (TED) is frequently applied for the modelling of the magnitude distributions in the seismic hazard and risk analysis. The TED has a weak point: when two TEDs with equal parameters, except the upper bound magnitude, are mixed, then the resulting distribution is not a TED. Inversely, it is also not possible to split a TED of a seismic region into TEDs of subregions with equal parameters, except the upper bound magnitude. This weakness is a principal problem as seismic regions are constructed scientific objects and not natural units. It also applies to alternative distribution models. The presented generalized truncated exponential distribution (GTED) overcomes this weakness. The ED and the TED are special cases of the GTED. Different issues of the statistical inference are also discussed and an example of empirical data is presented in the current contribution.

Predicting presence and absence of trout (Salmo trutta) in Iran

PubMed Central

Mostafavi, Hossein; Pletterbauer, Florian; Coad, Brian W.; Mahini, Abdolrassoul Salman; Schinegger, Rafaela; Unfer, Günther; Trautwein, Clemens; Schmutz, Stefan

2014-01-01

Species distribution modelling, as a central issue in freshwater ecology, is an important tool for conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems. The brown trout (Salmo trutta) is a sensitive species which reacts to habitat changes induced by human impacts. Therefore, the identification of suitable habitats is essential. This study explores the potential distribution of brown trout by a species distribution modelling approach for Iran. Furthermore, modelling results are compared to the distribution described in the literature. Areas outside the currently known distribution which may offer potential habitats for brown trout are identified. The species distribution modelling was based on five different modelling techniques: Generalised Linear Model, Generalised Additive Model, Generalised Boosting Model, Classification Tree Analysis and Random Forests, which are finally summarised in an ensemble forecasting approach. We considered four environmental descriptors at the local scale (slope, bankfull width, wetted width, and elevation) and three climatic parameters (mean air temperature, range of air temperature and annual precipitation) which were extracted on three different spatial extents (1/5/10 km). The performance of all models was excellent (≥0.8) according to the TSS (True Skill Statistic) criterion. Slope, mean and range of air temperature were the most important variables in predicting brown trout occurrence. Presented results deepen the knowledge about distribution patterns of brown trout in Iran. Moreover, this study gives a basic background for the future development of assessment methods for riverine ecosystems in Iran. PMID:24707064

Estimating reservoir permeability from gravity current modeling of CO2 flow at Sleipner storage project, North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowton, L. R.; Neufeld, J. A.; Bickle, M.; White, N.; White, J.; Chadwick, A.

2017-12-01

Vertically-integrated gravity current models enable computationally efficient simulations of CO2 flow in sub-surface reservoirs. These simulations can be used to investigate the properties of reservoirs by minimizing differences between observed and modeled CO2 distributions. At the Sleipner project, about 1 Mt yr-1 of supercritical CO2 is injected at a depth of 1 km into a pristine saline aquifer with a thick shale caprock. Analysis of time-lapse seismic reflection surveys shows that CO2 is distributed within 9 discrete layers. The trapping mechanism comprises a stacked series of 1 m thick, impermeable shale horizons that are spaced at 30 m intervals through the reservoir. Within the stratigraphically highest reservoir layer, Layer 9, a submarine channel deposit has been mapped on the pre-injection seismic survey. Detailed measurements of the three-dimensional CO2 distribution within Layer 9 have been made using seven time-lapse surveys, providing a useful benchmark against which numerical flow simulations can be tested. Previous simulations have, in general, been largely unsuccessful in matching the migration rate of CO2 in this layer. Here, CO2 flow within Layer 9 is modeled as a vertically-integrated gravity current that spreads beneath a structurally complex caprock using a two-dimensional grid, considerably increasing computational efficiency compared to conventional three-dimensional simulators. This flow model is inverted to find the optimal reservoir permeability in Layer 9 by minimizing the difference between observed and predicted distributions of CO2 as a function of space and time. A three parameter inverse model, comprising reservoir permeability, channel permeability and channel width, is investigated by grid search. The best-fitting reservoir permeability is 3 Darcys, which is consistent with measurements made on core material from the reservoir. Best-fitting channel permeability is 26 Darcys. Finally, the ability of this simplified numerical model to forecast CO2 flow within Layer 9 is tested. Permeability recovered by modeling a suite of early seismic surveys is used to predict the CO2 distribution for a suite of later seismic surveys with a considerable degree of success. Forecasts have also been carried out that can be tested using future seismic surveys.

Geomagnetic storms, the Dst ring-current myth and lognormal distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, W.H.

1996-01-01

The definition of geomagnetic storms dates back to the turn of the century when researchers recognized the unique shape of the H-component field change upon averaging storms recorded at low latitude observatories. A generally accepted modeling of the storm field sources as a magnetospheric ring current was settled about 30 years ago at the start of space exploration and the discovery of the Van Allen belt of particles encircling the Earth. The Dst global 'ring-current' index of geomagnetic disturbances, formulated in that period, is still taken to be the definitive representation for geomagnetic storms. Dst indices, or data from many world observatories processed in a fashion paralleling the index, are used widely by researchers relying on the assumption of such a magnetospheric current-ring depiction. Recent in situ measurements by satellites passing through the ring-current region and computations with disturbed magnetosphere models show that the Dst storm is not solely a main-phase to decay-phase, growth to disintegration, of a massive current encircling the Earth. Although a ring current certainly exists during a storm, there are many other field contributions at the middle-and low-latitude observatories that are summed to show the 'storm' characteristic behavior in Dst at these observatories. One characteristic of the storm field form at middle and low latitudes is that Dst exhibits a lognormal distribution shape when plotted as the hourly value amplitude in each time range. Such distributions, common in nature, arise when there are many contributors to a measurement or when the measurement is a result of a connected series of statistical processes. The amplitude-time displays of Dst are thought to occur because the many time-series processes that are added to form Dst all have their own characteristic distribution in time. By transforming the Dst time display into the equivalent normal distribution, it is shown that a storm recovery can be predicted with remarkable accuracy from measurements made during the Dst growth phase. In the lognormal formulation, the mean, standard deviation and field count within standard deviation limits become definitive Dst storm parameters.

Transmission of electric fields due to distributed cloud charges in the atmosphere-ionosphere system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Suman; De, S. S.; Haldar, D. K.; Guha, G.

2017-10-01

The transmission of electric fields in the lower atmosphere by thunder clouds with a suitable charge distribution profile has been modeled. The electromagnetic responses of the atmosphere are presented through Maxwell's equations together with a time-varying source charge distribution. The conductivities are taken to be exponentially graded function of altitude. The radial and vertical electric field components are derived for isotropic, anisotropic and thundercloud regions. The analytical solutions for the total Maxwell's current which flows from the cloud into the ionosphere under DC and quasi-static conditions are obtained for isotropic region. We found that the effect of charge distribution in thunderclouds produced by lightning discharges diminishes rapidly with increasing altitudes. Also, it is found that time to reach Maxwell's currents a maximum is higher for higher altitudes.

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

PubMed Central

Tang, Cindy Q.; Dong, Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira, Sonia; Matsui, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Haruka; He, Long-Yuan; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Tomita, Mizuki; Li, Xiao-Shuang; Yan, Hai-Zhong; Peng, Ming-Chun; Hu, Jun; Yang, Ruo-Han; Li, Wang-Jun; Yan, Kai; Hou, Xiuli; Zhang, Zhi-Ying; López-Pujol, Jordi

2017-01-01

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata. PMID:28272437

On high-latitude convection field inhomogeneities, parallel electric fields and inverted-V precipitation events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lennartsson, W.

1977-01-01

A simple model of a static electric field with a component parallel to the magnetic field is proposed for calculating the electric field and current distributions at various altitudes when the horizontal distribution of the convection electric field is given at a certain altitude above the auroral ionosphere. The model is shown to be compatible with satellite observations of inverted-V electron precipitation structures and associated irregularities in the convection electric field.

Stability assessment of a multi-port power electronic interface for hybrid micro-grid applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamsi, Pourya

Migration to an industrial society increases the demand for electrical energy. Meanwhile, social causes for preserving the environment and reducing pollutions seek cleaner forms of energy sources. Therefore, there has been a growth in distributed generation from renewable sources in the past decade. Existing regulations and power system coordination does not allow for massive integration of distributed generation throughout the grid. Moreover, the current infrastructures are not designed for interfacing distributed and deregulated generation. In order to remedy this problem, a hybrid micro-grid based on nano-grids is introduced. This system consists of a reliable micro-grid structure that provides a smooth transition from the current distribution networks to smart micro-grid systems. Multi-port power electronic interfaces are introduced to manage the local generation, storage, and consumption. Afterwards, a model for this micro-grid is derived. Using this model, the stability of the system under a variety of source and load induced disturbances is studied. Moreover, pole-zero study of the micro-grid is performed under various loading conditions. An experimental setup of this micro-grid is developed, and the validity of the model in emulating the dynamic behavior of the system is verified. This study provides a theory for a novel hybrid micro-grid as well as models for stability assessment of the proposed micro-grid.

A generalized semikinetic (GSK) model for mesoscale auroral plasma transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, David Gillespie

1993-12-01

The auroral region of the Earth's ionosphere-magnetosphere system is a complex and active part of the Earth's environment. In order to study the transport of ionospheric plasma in this region, we have developed a generalized semikinetic (GSK) model which combines the tracking of ionospheric ion gyrocenters (between stochastic impulses from waves), with a generalized fluid treatment of ionospheric electrons and Liouville mapping of magnetospheric plasma components. This model has been used to simulate the effects of 'self-consistent' heating ('self consistent' in the sense that heating occurs only where the modelled plasma is unstable) due to the current-driven ion cyclotron instability in the return current regions. Our results include generation of 'conics' whose wings are drawn in towards the upsilon(parallel)-axis at higher energies (such distributions were subsequently found in recent studies of DE-1 data for this region) and an alternative formation mechanism for toroidal (or 'ring'-shaped) ion velocity-space distributions. We also present results illustrating the effects of combining large scale electric fields (generated by anisotropic magnetospheric plasma distributions) with wave heating by a presumed distribution of wave spectra. In the presence of an upwards electric field the addition of wave heating increases the density of the O(sup +) 'beam' ('ion feeder' effect), while a downwards hot plasma-induced electric field increases the time which ions spend within the heating region ('pressure cooker' effect), resulting in greater ion energization.

A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn H.

2016-09-01

Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE), parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G), whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN). The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall-runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD), and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA) is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985-2000 and validation period is 2000-2014. Results show that SDG better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SDG is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

Field-dependent critical state of high-Tc superconducting strip simultaneously exposed to transport current and perpendicular magnetic field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xue, Cun; He, An; Yong, Huadong

We present an exact analytical approach for arbitrary field-dependent critical state of high-T{sub c} superconducting strip with transport current. The sheet current and flux-density profiles are derived by solving the integral equations, which agree with experiments quite well. For small transport current, the approximate explicit expressions of sheet current, flux-density and penetration depth for the Kim model are derived based on the mean value theorem for integration. We also extend the results to the field-dependent critical state of superconducting strip in the simultaneous presence of applied field and transport current. The sheet current distributions calculated by the Kim model agreemore » with experiments better than that by the Bean model. Moreover, the lines in the I{sub a}-B{sub a} plane for the Kim model are not monotonic, which is quite different from that the Bean model. The results reveal that the maximum transport current in thin superconducting strip will decrease with increasing applied field which vanishes for the Bean model. The results of this paper are useful to calculate ac susceptibility and ac loss.« less

1/f oscillations in a model of moth populations oriented by diffusive pheromones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbosa, L. A.; Martins, M. L.; Lima, E. R.

2005-01-01

An individual-based model for the population dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda in a homogeneous environment is proposed. The model involves moths feeding plants, mating through an anemotaxis search (i.e., oriented by odor dispersed in a current of air), and dying due to resource competition or at a maximum age. As observed in the laboratory, the females release pheromones at exponentially distributed time intervals, and it is assumed that the ranges of the male flights follow a power-law distribution. Computer simulations of the model reveal the central role of anemotaxis search for the persistence of moth population. Such stationary populations are exponentially distributed in age, exhibit random temporal fluctuations with 1/f spectrum, and self-organize in disordered spatial patterns with long-range correlations. In addition, the model results demonstrate that pest control through pheromone mass trapping is effective only if the amounts of pheromone released by the traps decay much slower than the exponential distribution for calling female.

Distributional Effects of Educational Improvements: Are We Using the Wrong Model?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bourguignon, Francois; Rogers, F. Halsey

2007-01-01

Measuring the incidence of public spending in education requires an intergenerational framework distinguishing between what current and future generations--that is, parents and children--give and receive. In standard distributional incidence analysis, households are assumed to receive a benefit equal to what is spent on their children enrolled in…

Chloraminated Drinking Water Distribution System Nitrification: Batch and Biofilm Inactivation Studies, Model Nitrifying Biofilm Investigations, and Evaluation of Operational Responses to Nitrification Episodes

EPA Science Inventory

Studies are currently underway to help fill knowledge gaps that exist in the general understanding of nitrification episodes. One of these gaps includes the need for growth and inactivation kinetic parameters for nitrifiers representative of those inhabiting distribution systems ...

Plasma Model V&V of Collisionless Electrostatic Shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Robert; Le, Hai; Bilyeu, David; Gildea, Stephen

2014-10-01

A simple 1D electrostatic collisionless shock was selected as an initial validation and verification test case for a new plasma modeling framework under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory's In-Space Propulsion branch (AFRL/RQRS). Cross verification between PIC, Vlasov, and Fluid plasma models within the framework along with expected theoretical results will be shown. The non-equilibrium velocity distributions (VDF) captured by PIC and Vlasov will be compared to each other and the assumed VDF of the fluid model at selected points. Validation against experimental data from the University of California, Los Angeles double-plasma device will also be presented along with current work in progress at AFRL/RQRS towards reproducing the experimental results using higher fidelity diagnostics to help elucidate differences between model results and between the models and original experiment. DISTRIBUTION A: Approved for public release; unlimited distribution; PA (Public Affairs) Clearance Number 14332.

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Loh, Rhonda; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan; McDaniel, Sierra; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-01-01

Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.

Modeling the Dynamical Structure of the Haumea Family

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proudfoot, Benjamin; Ragozzine, Darin

2018-04-01

Collisions are known to be critical in explaining the full story of the outer Solar System. The dwarf planet Haumea provides a unique empirical view into this, as Haumea is the only known example of a collisional family in the Kuiper Belt. Although there have been many Haumea formation hypotheses presented in the literature, none are fully self-consistent. In particular, it is challenging to explain the low ejection velocity of the family. With the addition of many new Haumea family members (Maggard & Ragozzine 2018, in prep.), we further investigate how we can use collision models to recreate the current dynamical distribution of Haumea family members in (proper) a-e-i-dv-H space. Using synthetic families created using different collision models, we use a Bayesian methodology to infer the posterior distribution of our model parameters that best matches the current family. Our newest results continue to exclude the planar distribution of family members that would result from a ‘graze-and-merge’ type collision (e.g., Leinhardt et al. 2010) based on a lack of a-e-i correlation (Proudfoot & Ragozzine, DPS 2017, DDA 2017). We present here our results from more models. We have also validated a statistical method for automatically and self-consistently identifying interlopers from the background population.

The potential distribution of the Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia): an updated distribution model including irrigation improves model fit for predicting potential spread.

PubMed

Avila, G A; Davidson, M; van Helden, M; Fagan, L

2018-04-18

Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov), Russian wheat aphid, is one of the world's most invasive and economically important agricultural pests of wheat and barley. In May 2016, it was found for the first time in Australia, with further sampling confirming it was widespread throughout south-eastern regions. Russian wheat aphid is not yet present in New Zealand. The impacts of this pest if it establishes in New Zealand, could result in serious control problems in wheat- and barley-growing regions. To evaluate whether D. noxia could establish populations in New Zealand we used the climate modelling software CLIMEX to locate where potential viable populations might occur. We re-parameterised the existing CLIMEX model by Hughes and Maywald (1990) by improving the model fit using currently known distribution records of D. noxia, and we also considered the role of irrigation into the potential spread of this invasive insect. The updated model now fits the current known distribution better than the previous Hughes and Maywald CLIMEX model, particularly in temperate and Mediterranean areas in Australia and Europe; and in more semi-arid areas in north-western China and Middle Eastern countries. Our model also highlights new climatically suitable areas for the establishment of D. noxia, not previously reported, including parts of France, the UK and New Zealand. Our results suggest that, when suitable host plants are present, Russian wheat aphid could establish in these regions. The new CLIMEX projections in the present study are useful tools to inform risk assessments and target surveillance and monitoring efforts for identifying susceptible areas to invasion by Russian wheat aphid.

Development of a thermal and structural model for a NASTRAN finite-element analysis of a hypersonic wing test structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lameris, J.

1984-01-01

The development of a thermal and structural model for a hypersonic wing test structure using the NASTRAN finite-element method as its primary analytical tool is described. A detailed analysis was defined to obtain the temperature and thermal stress distribution in the whole wing as well as the five upper and lower root panels. During the development of the models, it was found that the thermal application of NASTRAN and the VIEW program, used for the generation of the radiation exchange coefficients, were definicent. Although for most of these deficiencies solutions could be found, the existence of one particular deficiency in the current thermal model prevented the final computation of the temperature distributions. A SPAR analysis of a single bay of the wing, using data converted from the original NASTRAN model, indicates that local temperature-time distributions can be obtained with good agreement with the test data. The conversion of the NASTRAN thermal model into a SPAR model is recommended to meet the immediate goal of obtaining an accurate thermal stress distribution.

Production of NOx by Lightning and its Effects on Atmospheric Chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, Kenneth E.

2009-01-01

Production of NO(x) by lightning remains the NO(x) source with the greatest uncertainty. Current estimates of the global source strength range over a factor of four (from 2 to 8 TgN/year). Ongoing efforts to reduce this uncertainty through field programs, cloud-resolved modeling, global modeling, and satellite data analysis will be described in this seminar. Representation of the lightning source in global or regional chemical transport models requires three types of information: the distribution of lightning flashes as a function of time and space, the production of NO(x) per flash, and the effective vertical distribution of the lightning-injected NO(x). Methods of specifying these items in a model will be discussed. For example, the current method of specifying flash rates in NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model will be discussed, as well as work underway in developing algorithms for use in the regional models CMAQ and WRF-Chem. A number of methods have been employed to estimate either production per lightning flash or the production per unit flash length. Such estimates derived from cloud-resolved chemistry simulations and from satellite NO2 retrievals will be presented as well as the methodologies employed. Cloud-resolved model output has also been used in developing vertical profiles of lightning NO(x) for use in global models. Effects of lightning NO(x) on O3 and HO(x) distributions will be illustrated regionally and globally.

Modeling of spacecraft charging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whipple, E. C., Jr.

1977-01-01

Three types of modeling of spacecraft charging are discussed: statistical models, parametric models, and physical models. Local time dependence of circuit upset for DoD and communication satellites, and electron current to a sphere with an assumed Debye potential distribution are presented. Four regions were involved in spacecraft charging: (1) undisturbed plasma, (2) plasma sheath region, (3) spacecraft surface, and (4) spacecraft equivalent circuit.

Kapton charging characteristics: Effects of material thickness and electron-energy distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, W. S.; Dulgeroff, C. R.; Hymann, J.; Viswanathan, R.

1985-01-01

Charging characteristics of polyimide (Kapton) of varying thicknesses under irradiation by a very-low-curent-density electron beam, with the back surface of the sample grounded are reported. These charging characteristics are in good agreement with a simple analytical model which predicts that in thin samples at low current density, sample surface potential is limited by conduction leakage through the bulk material. The charging of Kapton in a low-current-density electron beam in which the beam energy was modulated to simulate Maxwellian and biMaxwellian distribution functions is measured.

Performance of Four-Leg VSC based DSTATCOM using Single Phase P-Q Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jampana, Bangarraju; Veramalla, Rajagopal; Askani, Jayalaxmi

2017-02-01

This paper presents single-phase P-Q theory for four-leg VSC based distributed static compensator (DSTATCOM) in the distribution system. The proposed DSTATCOM maintains unity power factor at source, zero voltage regulation, eliminates current harmonics, load balancing and neutral current compensation. The advantage of using four-leg VSC based DSTATCOM is to eliminate isolated/non-isolated transformer connection at point of common coupling (PCC) for neutral current compensation. The elimination of transformer connection at PCC with proposed topology will reduce cost of DSTATCOM. The single-phase P-Q theory control algorithm is used to extract fundamental component of active and reactive currents for generation of reference source currents which is based on indirect current control method. The proposed DSTATCOM is modelled and the results are validated with various consumer loads under unity power factor and zero voltage regulation modes in the MATLAB R2013a environment using simpower system toolbox.

The numeric calculation of eddy current distributions in transcranial magnetic stimulation.

PubMed

Tsuyama, Seichi; Hyodo, Akira; Sekino, Masaki; Hayami, Takehito; Ueno, Shoogo; Iramina, Keiji

2008-01-01

Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a method to stimulate neurons in the brain. It is necessary to obtain eddy current distributions and determine parameters such as position, radius and bend-angle of the coil to stimulate target area exactly. In this study, we performed FEM-based numerical simulations of eddy current induced by TMS using three-dimentional human head model with inhomogeneous conductivity. We used double-cone coil and changed the coil radius and bend-angle of coil. The result of computer simulation showed that as coil radius increases, the eddy current became stronger everywhere. And coil with bend-angle of 22.5 degrees induced stronger eddy current than the coil with bendangle of 0 degrees. Meanwhile, when the bend-angle was 45 degrees, eddy current became weaker than these two cases. This simulation allowed us to determine appropriate parameter easier.

Mathematical model of the current density for the 30-cm engineering model thruster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cuffel, R. F.

1975-01-01

Mathematical models are presented for both the singly and doubly charged ion current densities downstream of the 30-cm engineering model thruster with 0.5% compensated dished grids. These models are based on the experimental measurements of Vahrenkamp at a 2-amp ion beam operating condition. The cylindrically symmetric beam of constant velocity ions is modeled with continuous radial source and focusing functions across 'plane' grids with similar angular distribution functions. A computer program is used to evaluate the double integral for current densities in the near field and to obtain a far field approximation beyond 10 grid radii. The utility of the model is demonstrated for (1) calculating the directed thrust and (2) determining the impingement levels on various spacecraft surfaces from a two-axis gimballed, 2 x 3 thruster array.

STATUS AND PROGRESS IN PARTICULATE MATTER FORECASTING: INITIAL APPLICATION OF THE ETA- CMAQ FORECAST MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation reviews the status and progress in forecasting particulate matter distributions. The shortcomings in representation of particulate matter formation in current atmospheric chemistry/transport models are presented based on analyses and detailed comparisons with me...

Modeling tools to Account for Ethanol Impacts on BTEX Plumes

EPA Science Inventory

Widespread usage of ethanol in gasoline leads to impacts at leak sites which differ from those of non-ethanol gasolines. The presentation reviews current research results on the distribution of gasoline and ethanol, biodegradation, phase separation and cosolvancy. Model results f...

A modular approach to addressing model design, scale, and parameter estimation issues in distributed hydrological modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Restrepo, Pedro J.; Viger, R.J.

2002-01-01

A modular approach to model design and construction provides a flexible framework in which to focus the multidisciplinary research and operational efforts needed to facilitate the development, selection, and application of the most robust distributed modelling methods. A variety of modular approaches have been developed, but with little consideration for compatibility among systems and concepts. Several systems are proprietary, limiting any user interaction. The US Geological Survey modular modelling system (MMS) is a modular modelling framework that uses an open source software approach to enable all members of the scientific community to address collaboratively the many complex issues associated with the design, development, and application of distributed hydrological and environmental models. Implementation of a common modular concept is not a trivial task. However, it brings the resources of a larger community to bear on the problems of distributed modelling, provides a framework in which to compare alternative modelling approaches objectively, and provides a means of sharing the latest modelling advances. The concepts and components of the MMS are described and an example application of the MMS, in a decision-support system context, is presented to demonstrate current system capabilities. Copyright ?? 2002 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

PubMed

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

Obtaining source current density related to irregularly structured electromagnetic target field inside human body using hybrid inverse/FDTD method.

PubMed

Han, Jijun; Yang, Deqiang; Sun, Houjun; Xin, Sherman Xuegang

2017-01-01

Inverse method is inherently suitable for calculating the distribution of source current density related with an irregularly structured electromagnetic target field. However, the present form of inverse method cannot calculate complex field-tissue interactions. A novel hybrid inverse/finite-difference time domain (FDTD) method that can calculate the complex field-tissue interactions for the inverse design of source current density related with an irregularly structured electromagnetic target field is proposed. A Huygens' equivalent surface is established as a bridge to combine the inverse and FDTD method. Distribution of the radiofrequency (RF) magnetic field on the Huygens' equivalent surface is obtained using the FDTD method by considering the complex field-tissue interactions within the human body model. The obtained magnetic field distributed on the Huygens' equivalent surface is regarded as the next target. The current density on the designated source surface is derived using the inverse method. The homogeneity of target magnetic field and specific energy absorption rate are calculated to verify the proposed method.

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K; Noon, Barry R

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Alternating steady state free precession for estimation of current-induced magnetic flux density: A feasibility study.

PubMed

Lee, Hyunyeol; Jeong, Woo Chul; Kim, Hyung Joong; Woo, Eung Je; Park, Jaeseok

2016-05-01

To develop a novel, current-controlled alternating steady-state free precession (SSFP)-based conductivity imaging method and corresponding MR signal models to estimate current-induced magnetic flux density (Bz ) and conductivity distribution. In the proposed method, an SSFP pulse sequence, which is in sync with alternating current pulses, produces dual oscillating steady states while yielding nonlinear relation between signal phase and Bz . A ratiometric signal model between the states was analytically derived using the Bloch equation, wherein Bz was estimated by solving a nonlinear inverse problem for conductivity estimation. A theoretical analysis on the signal-to-noise ratio of Bz was given. Numerical and experimental studies were performed using SSFP-FID and SSFP-ECHO with current pulses positioned either before or after signal encoding to investigate the feasibility of the proposed method in conductivity estimation. Given all SSFP variants herein, SSFP-FID with alternating current pulses applied before signal encoding exhibits the highest Bz signal-to-noise ratio and conductivity contrast. Additionally, compared with conventional conductivity imaging, the proposed method benefits from rapid SSFP acquisition without apparent loss of conductivity contrast. We successfully demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed method in estimating current-induced Bz and conductivity distribution. It can be a promising, rapid imaging strategy for quantitative conductivity imaging. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Current Fluctuations in One Dimensional Diffusive Systems with a Step Initial Density Profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derrida, Bernard; Gerschenfeld, Antoine

2009-12-01

We show how to apply the macroscopic fluctuation theory (MFT) of Bertini, De Sole, Gabrielli, Jona-Lasinio, and Landim to study the current fluctuations of diffusive systems with a step initial condition. We argue that one has to distinguish between two ways of averaging (the annealed and the quenched cases) depending on whether we let the initial condition fluctuate or not. Although the initial condition is not a steady state, the distribution of the current satisfies a symmetry very reminiscent of the fluctuation theorem. We show how the equations of the MFT can be solved in the case of non-interacting particles. The symmetry of these equations can be used to deduce the distribution of the current for several other models, from its knowledge (Derrida and Gerschenfeld in J. Stat. Phys. 136, 1-15, 2009) for the symmetric simple exclusion process. In the range where the integrated current Qt˜sqrt{t} , we show that the non-Gaussian decay exp [- Q {/t 3}/ t] of the distribution of Q t is generic.

Physiological and modeling evidence for focal transcranial electrical brain stimulation in humans: A basis for high-definition tDCS

PubMed Central

Edwards, Dylan; Cortes, Mar; Datta, Abhishek; Minhas, Preet; Wassermann, Eric M.; Bikson, Marom

2015-01-01

Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) is a non-invasive, low-cost, well-tolerated technique producing lasting modulation of cortical excitability. Behavioral and therapeutic outcomes of tDCS are linked to the targeted brain regions, but there is little evidence that current reaches the brain as intended. We aimed to: (1) validate a computational model for estimating cortical electric fields in human transcranial stimulation, and (2) assess the magnitude and spread of cortical electric field with a novel High-Definition tDCS (HD-tDCS) scalp montage using a 4×1-Ring electrode configuration. In three healthy adults, Transcranial Electrical Stimulation (TES) over primary motor cortex (M1) was delivered using the 4×1 montage (4× cathode, surrounding a single central anode; montage radius ~3 cm) with sufficient intensity to elicit a discrete muscle twitch in the hand. The estimated current distribution in M1 was calculated using the individualized MRI-based model, and compared with the observed motor response across subjects. The response magnitude was quantified with stimulation over motor cortex as well as anterior and posterior to motor cortex. In each case the model data were consistent with the motor response across subjects. The estimated cortical electric fields with the 4×1 montage were compared (area, magnitude, direction) for TES and tDCS in each subject. We provide direct evidence in humans that TES with a 4×1-Ring configuration can activate motor cortex and that current does not substantially spread outside the stimulation area. Computational models predict that both TES and tDCS waveforms using the 4×1-Ring configuration generate electric fields in cortex with comparable gross current distribution, and preferentially directed normal (inward) currents. The agreement of modeling and experimental data for both current delivery and focality support the use of the HD-tDCS 4×1-Ring montage for cortically targeted neuromodulation. PMID:23370061

Regional Extinctions and Quaternary Shifts in the Geographic Range of Lestodelphys halli, the Southernmost Living Marsupial: Clues for Its Conservation.

PubMed

Formoso, Anahí E; Martin, Gabriel M; Teta, Pablo; Carbajo, Aníbal E; Sauthier, Daniel E Udrizar; Pardiñas, Ulyses F J

2015-01-01

The Patagonian opossum (Lestodelphys halli), the southernmost living marsupial, inhabits dry and open environments, mainly in the Patagonian steppe (between ~32 °S and ~49 °S). Its rich fossil record shows its occurrence further north in Central Argentina during the Quaternary. The paleoenvironmental meaning of the past distribution of L. halli has been mostly addressed in a subjective framework without an explicit connection with the climatic "space" currently occupied by this animal. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of this species and the changes occurred in its geographic range during late Pleistocene-Holocene times and linked the results obtained with conservation issues. To this end, we generated three potential distribution models with fossil records and three with current ones, using MaxEnt software. These models showed a decrease in the suitable habitat conditions for the species, highlighting a range shift from Central-Eastern to South-Western Argentina. Our results support that the presence of L. halli in the Pampean region during the Pleistocene-Holocene can be related to precipitation and temperature variables and that its current presence in Patagonia is more related to temperature and dominant soils. The models obtained suggest that the species has been experiencing a reduction in its geographic range since the middle Holocene, a process that is in accordance with a general increase in moisture and temperature in Central Argentina. Considering the findings of our work and the future scenario of global warming projected for Patagonia, we might expect a harsh impact on the distribution range of this opossum in the near future.

Distributed, cooperating knowledge-based systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truszkowski, Walt

1991-01-01

Some current research in the development and application of distributed, cooperating knowledge-based systems technology is addressed. The focus of the current research is the spacecraft ground operations environment. The underlying hypothesis is that, because of the increasing size, complexity, and cost of planned systems, conventional procedural approaches to the architecture of automated systems will give way to a more comprehensive knowledge-based approach. A hallmark of these future systems will be the integration of multiple knowledge-based agents which understand the operational goals of the system and cooperate with each other and the humans in the loop to attain the goals. The current work includes the development of a reference model for knowledge-base management, the development of a formal model of cooperating knowledge-based agents, the use of testbed for prototyping and evaluating various knowledge-based concepts, and beginning work on the establishment of an object-oriented model of an intelligent end-to-end (spacecraft to user) system. An introductory discussion of these activities is presented, the major concepts and principles being investigated are highlighted, and their potential use in other application domains is indicated.

HZE reactions and data-base development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

1993-01-01

The primary cosmic rays are dispersed over a large range of linear energy transfer (LET) values and their distribution over LET is a determinant of biological response. This LET distribution is modified by radiation shielding thickness and shield material composition. The current uncertainties in nuclear cross sections will not allow the composition of the shield material to be distinguished in order to minimize biological risk. An overview of the development of quantum mechanical models of heavy ion reactions will be given and computational results compared with experiments. A second approach is the development of phenomenological models from semi-classical considerations. These models provide the current data base in high charge and energy (HZE) shielding studies. They will be compared with available experimental data. The background material for this lecture will be available as a review document of over 30 years of research at Langley but will include new results obtained over the last year.

Modeling Hawaiian Ecosystem Degradation due to Invasive Plants under Current and Future Climates

PubMed Central

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; Gon, Sam 'Ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions. PMID:24805254

Thriving in the Cold: Glacial Expansion and Post-Glacial Contraction of a Temperate Terrestrial Salamander (Plethodon serratus)

PubMed Central

Newman, Catherine E.; Austin, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

The dynamic geologic history of the southeastern United States has played a major role in shaping the geographic distributions of amphibians in the region. In the phylogeographic literature, the predominant pattern of distribution shifts through time of temperate species is one of contraction during glacial maxima and persistence in refugia. However, the diverse biology and ecology of amphibian species suggest that a “one-size-fits-all” model may be inappropriate. Nearly 10% of amphibian species in the region have a current distribution comprised of multiple disjunct, restricted areas that resemble the shape of Pleistocene refugia identified for other temperate taxa in the literature. Here, we apply genetics and spatially explicit climate analyses to test the hypothesis that the disjunct regions of these species ranges are climatic refugia for species that were more broadly distributed during glacial maxima. We use the salamander Plethodon serratus as a model, as its range consists of four disjunct regions in the Southeast. Phylogenetic results show that P. serratus is comprised of multiple genetic lineages, and the four regions are not reciprocally monophyletic. The Appalachian salamanders form a clade sister to all other P. serratus. Niche and paleodistribution modeling results suggest that P. serratus expanded from the Appalachians during the cooler Last Glacial Maximum and has since been restricted to its current disjunct distribution by a warming climate. These data reject the universal applicability of the glacial contraction model to temperate taxa and reiterate the importance of considering the natural history of individual species. PMID:26132077

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

PubMed

Vorsino, Adam E; Fortini, Lucas B; Amidon, Fred A; Miller, Stephen E; Jacobi, James D; Price, Jonathan P; Gon, Sam 'ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Nonlinear dynamic modeling of rotor system supported by angular contact ball bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hong; Han, Qinkai; Zhou, Daning

2017-02-01

In current bearing dynamic models, the displacement coordinate relations are usually utilized to approximately obtain the contact deformations between the rolling element and raceways, and then the nonlinear restoring forces of the rolling bearing could be calculated accordingly. Although the calculation efficiency is relatively higher, the accuracy is lower as the contact deformations should be solved through iterative analysis. Thus, an improved nonlinear dynamic model is presented in this paper. Considering the preload condition, surface waviness, Hertz contact and elastohydrodynamic lubrication, load distribution analysis is solved iteratively to more accurately obtain the contact deformations and angles between the rolling balls and raceways. The bearing restoring forces are then obtained through iteratively solving the load distribution equations at every time step. Dynamic tests upon a typical rotor system supported by two angular contact ball bearings are conducted to verify the model. Through comparisons, the differences between the nonlinear dynamic model and current models are also pointed out. The effects of axial preload, rotor eccentricity and inner/outer waviness amplitudes on the dynamic response are discussed in detail.

Lexical is as lexical does: computational approaches to lexical representation

PubMed Central

Woollams, Anna M.

2015-01-01

In much of neuroimaging and neuropsychology, regions of the brain have been associated with ‘lexical representation’, with little consideration as to what this cognitive construct actually denotes. Within current computational models of word recognition, there are a number of different approaches to the representation of lexical knowledge. Structural lexical representations, found in original theories of word recognition, have been instantiated in modern localist models. However, such a representational scheme lacks neural plausibility in terms of economy and flexibility. Connectionist models have therefore adopted distributed representations of form and meaning. Semantic representations in connectionist models necessarily encode lexical knowledge. Yet when equipped with recurrent connections, connectionist models can also develop attractors for familiar forms that function as lexical representations. Current behavioural, neuropsychological and neuroimaging evidence shows a clear role for semantic information, but also suggests some modality- and task-specific lexical representations. A variety of connectionist architectures could implement these distributed functional representations, and further experimental and simulation work is required to discriminate between these alternatives. Future conceptualisations of lexical representations will therefore emerge from a synergy between modelling and neuroscience. PMID:25893204

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Physics-based Control-oriented Modeling of the Current Profile Evolution in NSTX-Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, Zeki; Barton, Justin; Shi, Wenyu; Schuster, Eugenio; Gates, David; Gerhardt, Stefan; Kolemen, Egemen; Menard, Jonathan

2013-10-01

The operational goals for the NSTX-Upgrade device include non-inductive sustainment of high- β plasmas, realization of the high performance equilibrium scenarios with neutral beam heating, and achievement of longer pulse durations. Active feedback control of the current profile is proposed to enable these goals. Motivated by the coupled, nonlinear, multivariable, distributed-parameter plasma dynamics, the first step towards feedback control design is the development of a physics-based, control-oriented model for the current profile evolution in response to non-inductive current drives and heating systems. For this purpose, the nonlinear magnetic-diffusion equation is coupled with empirical models for the electron density, electron temperature, and non-inductive current drives (neutral beams). The resulting first-principles-driven, control-oriented model is tailored for NSTX-U based on the PTRANSP predictions. Main objectives and possible challenges associated with the use of the developed model for control design are discussed. This work was supported by PPPL.

One dark matter mystery: halos in the cosmic web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaite, Jose

2015-01-01

The current cold dark matter cosmological model explains the large scale cosmic web structure but is challenged by the observation of a relatively smooth distribution of matter in galactic clusters. We consider various aspects of modeling the dark matter around galaxies as distributed in smooth halos and, especially, the smoothness of the dark matter halos seen in N-body cosmological simulations. We conclude that the problems of the cold dark matter cosmology on small scales are more serious than normally admitted.

Performance evaluation of parallel electric field tunnel field-effect transistor by a distributed-element circuit model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morita, Yukinori; Mori, Takahiro; Migita, Shinji; Mizubayashi, Wataru; Tanabe, Akihito; Fukuda, Koichi; Matsukawa, Takashi; Endo, Kazuhiko; O'uchi, Shin-ichi; Liu, Yongxun; Masahara, Meishoku; Ota, Hiroyuki

2014-12-01

The performance of parallel electric field tunnel field-effect transistors (TFETs), in which band-to-band tunneling (BTBT) was initiated in-line to the gate electric field was evaluated. The TFET was fabricated by inserting an epitaxially-grown parallel-plate tunnel capacitor between heavily doped source wells and gate insulators. Analysis using a distributed-element circuit model indicated there should be a limit of the drain current caused by the self-voltage-drop effect in the ultrathin channel layer.

Field-aligned current sources in the high-latitude ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barbosa, D. D.

1979-01-01

The paper determines the electric potential in a plane which is fed current from a pair of field-aligned current sheets. The ionospheric conductivity is modelled as a constant with an enhanced conductivity annular ring. It is shown that field-aligned current distributions are arbitrary functions of azimuth angle (MLT) and thus allow for asymmetric potential configurations over the pole cap. In addition, ionospheric surface currents are computed by means of stream functions. Finally, the discussion relates these methods to the electrical characteristics of the magnetosphere.

An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

PubMed

Housh, Mashor; Ostfeld, Avi

2015-05-15

The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Self-Consistent Model of the Interacting Ring Current Ions and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves, Initial Results: Waves and Precipitating Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; Krivorutsky, E. N.

2002-01-01

Initial results from a newly developed model of the interacting ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves are presented. The model is based on the system of two kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another equation describes wave evolution. The system gives a self-consistent description of the ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves in a quasilinear approach. These equations for the ion phase space distribution function and for the wave power spectral density were solved on aglobal magnetospheric scale undernonsteady state conditions during the 2-5 May 1998 storm. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions and the ion cyclotron wave-active zones during extreme geomagnetic disturbances on 4 May 1998 are presented and discussed in detail.

Occurrence and distribution of microplastics at selected coastal sites along the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Yu, Xubiao; Ladewig, Samantha; Bao, Shaowu; Toline, Catherine A; Whitmire, Stefanie; Chow, Alex T

2018-02-01

To investigate the occurrence and distribution of microplastics in the southeastern coastal region of the United States, we quantified the amount of microplastics in sand samples from multiple coastal sites and developed a predictive model to understand the drift of plastics via ocean currents. Sand samples from eighteen National Park Service (NPS) beaches in the Southeastern Region were collected and microplastics were isolated from each sample. Microplastic counts were compared among sites and local geography was used to make inferences about sources and modes of distribution. Samples were analyzed to identify the composition of particles using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). To predict the spatiotemporal distribution and movements of particles via coastal currents, a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was applied. Microplastics were detected in each of the sampled sites although abundance among sites was highly variable. Approximately half of the samples were dominated by thread-like and fibrous materials as opposed to beads and particles. Results of FTIR suggested that 24% consisted of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), while about 68% of the fibers tested were composed of man-made cellulosic materials such as rayon. Based on published studies examining sources of microplastics, the shape of the particles found here (mostly fibers) and the presence of PET, we infer the source of microplastics in coastal areas is mainly from urban areas, such as wastewater discharge, rather than breakdown of larger marine debris drifting in the ocean. Local geographic features, e.g., the nearness of sites to large rivers and urbanized areas, explain variance in amount of microplastics among sites. Additionally, the distribution of simulated particles is explained by ocean current patterns; computer simulations were correlated with field observations, reinforcing the idea that ocean currents can be a good predictor of the fate and distribution of microplastics at the sites sampled here. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.

PubMed

Meynard, Christine N; Gay, Pierre-Emmanuel; Lecoq, Michel; Foucart, Antoine; Piou, Cyril; Chapuis, Marie-Pierre

2017-11-01

The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study on Distribution Reliability with Parallel and On-site Distributed Generation Considering Protection Miscoordination and Tie Line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaitusaney, Surachai; Yokoyama, Akihiko

In distribution system, Distributed Generation (DG) is expected to improve the system reliability as its backup generation. However, DG contribution in fault current may cause the loss of the existing protection coordination, e.g. recloser-fuse coordination and breaker-breaker coordination. This problem can drastically deteriorate the system reliability, and it is more serious and complicated when there are several DG sources in the system. Hence, the above conflict in reliability aspect unavoidably needs a detailed investigation before the installation or enhancement of DG is done. The model of composite DG fault current is proposed to find the threshold beyond which existing protection coordination is lost. Cases of protection miscoordination are described, together with their consequences. Since a distribution system may be tied with another system, the issues of tie line and on-site DG are integrated into this study. Reliability indices are evaluated and compared in the distribution reliability test system RBTS Bus 2.

Can Recent Global Changes Explain the Dramatic Range Contraction of an Endangered Semi-Aquatic Mammal Species in the French Pyrenees?

PubMed

Charbonnel, Anaïs; Laffaille, Pascal; Biffi, Marjorie; Blanc, Frédéric; Maire, Anthony; Némoz, Mélanie; Sanchez-Perez, José Miguel; Sauvage, Sabine; Buisson, Laëtitia

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are the main tool to predict global change impacts on species ranges. Climate change alone is frequently considered, but in freshwater ecosystems, hydrology is a key driver of the ecology of aquatic species. At large scale, hydrology is however rarely accounted for, owing to the lack of detailed stream flow data. In this study, we developed an integrated modelling approach to simulate stream flow using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Simulated stream flow was subsequently included as an input variable in SDMs along with topographic, hydrographic, climatic and land-cover descriptors. SDMs were applied to two temporally-distinct surveys of the distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the French Pyrenees: a historical one conducted from 1985 to 1992 and a current one carried out between 2011 and 2013. The model calibrated on historical data was also forecasted onto the current period to assess its ability to describe the distributional change of the Pyrenean desman that has been modelled in the recent years. First, we found that hydrological and climatic variables were the ones influencing the most the distribution of this species for both periods, emphasizing the importance of taking into account hydrology when SDMs are applied to aquatic species. Secondly, our results highlighted a strong range contraction of the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees over the last 25 years. Given that this range contraction was under-estimated when the historical model was forecasted onto current conditions, this finding suggests that other drivers may be interacting with climate, hydrology and land-use changes. Our results imply major concerns for the conservation of this endemic semi-aquatic mammal since changes in climate and hydrology are expected to become more intense in the future.

Can Recent Global Changes Explain the Dramatic Range Contraction of an Endangered Semi-Aquatic Mammal Species in the French Pyrenees?

PubMed Central

Charbonnel, Anaïs; Laffaille, Pascal; Biffi, Marjorie; Blanc, Frédéric; Maire, Anthony; Némoz, Mélanie; Sanchez-Perez, José Miguel; Sauvage, Sabine

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are the main tool to predict global change impacts on species ranges. Climate change alone is frequently considered, but in freshwater ecosystems, hydrology is a key driver of the ecology of aquatic species. At large scale, hydrology is however rarely accounted for, owing to the lack of detailed stream flow data. In this study, we developed an integrated modelling approach to simulate stream flow using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Simulated stream flow was subsequently included as an input variable in SDMs along with topographic, hydrographic, climatic and land-cover descriptors. SDMs were applied to two temporally-distinct surveys of the distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the French Pyrenees: a historical one conducted from 1985 to 1992 and a current one carried out between 2011 and 2013. The model calibrated on historical data was also forecasted onto the current period to assess its ability to describe the distributional change of the Pyrenean desman that has been modelled in the recent years. First, we found that hydrological and climatic variables were the ones influencing the most the distribution of this species for both periods, emphasizing the importance of taking into account hydrology when SDMs are applied to aquatic species. Secondly, our results highlighted a strong range contraction of the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees over the last 25 years. Given that this range contraction was under-estimated when the historical model was forecasted onto current conditions, this finding suggests that other drivers may be interacting with climate, hydrology and land-use changes. Our results imply major concerns for the conservation of this endemic semi-aquatic mammal since changes in climate and hydrology are expected to become more intense in the future. PMID:27467269

Freshwater wetlands: fertile grounds for the invasive Phragmites australis in a climate change context

PubMed Central

Tougas-Tellier, Marie-Andrée; Morin, Jean; Hatin, Daniel; Lavoie, Claude

2015-01-01

Climate change will likely affect flooding regimes, which have a large influence on the functioning of freshwater riparian wetlands. Low water levels predicted for several fluvial systems make wetlands especially vulnerable to the spread of invaders, such as the common reed (Phragmites australis), one of the most invasive species in North America. We developed a model to map the distribution of potential germination grounds of the common reed in freshwater wetlands of the St. Lawrence River (Québec, Canada) under current climate conditions and used this model to predict their future distribution under two climate change scenarios simulated for 2050. We gathered historical and recent (remote sensing) data on the distribution of common reed stands for model calibration and validation purposes, then determined the parameters controlling the species establishment by seed. A two-dimensional model and the identified parameters were used to simulate the current (2010) and future (2050) distribution of germination grounds. Common reed stands are not widespread along the St. Lawrence River (212 ha), but our model suggests that current climate conditions are already conducive to considerable further expansion (>16,000 ha). Climate change may also exacerbate the expansion, particularly if river water levels drop, which will expose large bare areas propitious to seed germination. This phenomenon may be particularly important in one sector of the river, where existing common reed stands could increase their areas by a factor of 100, potentially creating the most extensive reedbed complex in North America. After colonizing salt and brackishwater marshes, the common reed could considerably expand into the freshwater marshes of North America which cover several million hectares. The effects of common reed expansion on biodiversity are difficult to predict, but likely to be highly deleterious given the competitiveness of the invader and the biological richness of freshwater wetlands. PMID:26380675

Cardiac sodium channel Markov model with temperature dependence and recovery from inactivation.

PubMed Central

Irvine, L A; Jafri, M S; Winslow, R L

1999-01-01

A Markov model of the cardiac sodium channel is presented. The model is similar to the CA1 hippocampal neuron sodium channel model developed by Kuo and Bean (1994. Neuron. 12:819-829) with the following modifications: 1) an additional open state is added; 2) open-inactivated transitions are made voltage-dependent; and 3) channel rate constants are exponential functions of enthalpy, entropy, and voltage and have explicit temperature dependence. Model parameters are determined using a simulated annealing algorithm to minimize the error between model responses and various experimental data sets. The model reproduces a wide range of experimental data including ionic currents, gating currents, tail currents, steady-state inactivation, recovery from inactivation, and open time distributions over a temperature range of 10 degrees C to 25 degrees C. The model also predicts measures of single channel activity such as first latency, probability of a null sweep, and probability of reopening. PMID:10096885

SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses

PubMed Central

Bennett, Joseph R.; French, Connor M.

2017-01-01

SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs) to maximize each model’s discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have ‘universal’ analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism), generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates—to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user. PMID:29230356

The Effects of Grain Boundaries on the Current Transport Properties in YBCO-Coated Conductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chao; Xia, Yudong; Xue, Yan; Zhang, Fei; Tao, Bowan; Xiong, Jie

2015-10-01

We report a detailed study of the grain orientations and grain boundary (GB) networks in Y2O3 films grown on Ni-5 at.%W substrates. Electron back scatter diffraction (EBSD) exhibited different GB misorientation angle distributions, strongly decided by Y2O3 films with different textures. The subsequent yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) barrier and CeO2 cap layer were deposited on Y2O3 layers by radio frequency sputtering, and YBa2Cu3O7-δ (YBCO) films were deposited by pulsed laser deposition. For explicating the effects of the grain boundaries on the current carry capacity of YBCO films, a percolation model was proposed to calculate the critical current density ( J c) which depended on different GB misorientation angle distributions. The significantly higher J c for the sample with sharper texture is believed to be attributed to improved GB misorientation angle distributions.

FDTD-based Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation model applied to specific neurodegenerative disorders.

PubMed

Fanjul-Vélez, Félix; Salas-García, Irene; Ortega-Quijano, Noé; Arce-Diego, José Luis

2015-01-01

Non-invasive treatment of neurodegenerative diseases is particularly challenging in Western countries, where the population age is increasing. In this work, magnetic propagation in human head is modelled by Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) method, taking into account specific characteristics of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) in neurodegenerative diseases. It uses a realistic high-resolution three-dimensional human head mesh. The numerical method is applied to the analysis of magnetic radiation distribution in the brain using two realistic magnetic source models: a circular coil and a figure-8 coil commonly employed in TMS. The complete model was applied to the study of magnetic stimulation in Alzheimer and Parkinson Diseases (AD, PD). The results show the electrical field distribution when magnetic stimulation is supplied to those brain areas of specific interest for each particular disease. Thereby the current approach entails a high potential for the establishment of the current underdeveloped TMS dosimetry in its emerging application to AD and PD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microscopic Analysis of Current and Mechanical Properties of Nafion® Studied by Atomic Force Microscopy

PubMed Central

Hiesgen, Renate; Helmly, Stefan; Galm, Ines; Morawietz, Tobias; Handl, Michael; Friedrich, K. Andreas

2012-01-01

The conductivity of fuel cell membranes as well as their mechanical properties at the nanometer scale were characterized using advanced tapping mode atomic force microscopy (AFM) techniques. AFM produces high-resolution images under continuous current flow of the conductive structure at the membrane surface and provides some insight into the bulk conducting network in Nafion membranes. The correlation of conductivity with other mechanical properties, such as adhesion force, deformation and stiffness, were simultaneously measured with the current and provided an indication of subsurface phase separations and phase distribution at the surface of the membrane. The distribution of conductive pores at the surface was identified by the formation of water droplets. A comparison of nanostructure models with high-resolution current images is discussed in detail. PMID:24958429

Distributed source model for the full-wave electromagnetic simulation of nonlinear terahertz generation.

PubMed

Fumeaux, Christophe; Lin, Hungyen; Serita, Kazunori; Withayachumnankul, Withawat; Kaufmann, Thomas; Tonouchi, Masayoshi; Abbott, Derek

2012-07-30

The process of terahertz generation through optical rectification in a nonlinear crystal is modeled using discretized equivalent current sources. The equivalent terahertz sources are distributed in the active volume and computed based on a separately modeled near-infrared pump beam. This approach can be used to define an appropriate excitation for full-wave electromagnetic numerical simulations of the generated terahertz radiation. This enables predictive modeling of the near-field interactions of the terahertz beam with micro-structured samples, e.g. in a near-field time-resolved microscopy system. The distributed source model is described in detail, and an implementation in a particular full-wave simulation tool is presented. The numerical results are then validated through a series of measurements on square apertures. The general principle can be applied to other nonlinear processes with possible implementation in any full-wave numerical electromagnetic solver.

Distributive Leadership in Public Schools: Experiences and Perceptions of Teachers in the Soweto Region

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naicker, Suraiya R.; Mestry, Raj

2011-01-01

In current times, the increasing demands of principalship and the complexities facing schools have led to the emergence of distributive forms of leadership in schools. The dissatisfaction with traditional models has resulted in a paradigm shift where leadership focus on the position of individuals in the hierarchy has been rejected in favour of…

Estimation of the processes controlling variability in phytoplankton pigment distributions on the southeastern U.S. continental shelf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclain, Charles R.; Ishizaka, Joji; Hofmann, Eileen E.

1990-01-01

Five coastal-zone-color-scanner images from the southeastern U.S. continental shelf are combined with concurrent moored current meter measurements to assess the processes controlling the variability in chlorophyll concentration and distribution in this region. An equation governing the space and time distribution of a nonconservative quantity such as chlorophyll is used in the calculations. The terms of the equation, estimated from observations, show that advective, diffusive, and local processes contribute to the plankton distributions and vary with time and location. The results from this calculation are compared with similar results obtained using a numerical physical-biological model with circulation fields derived from an optimal interpolation of the current meter observations and it is concluded that the two approaches produce different estimates of the processes controlling phytoplankton variability.

Niche syndromes, species extinction risks, and management under climate change.

PubMed

Sax, Dov F; Early, Regan; Bellemare, Jesse

2013-09-01

The current distributions of species are often assumed to correspond with the total set of environmental conditions under which species can persist. When this assumption is incorrect, extinction risk estimated from species distribution models can be misleading. The degree to which species can tolerate or even thrive under conditions found beyond their current distributions alters extinction risks, time lags in realizing those risks, and the usefulness of alternative management strategies. To inform these issues, we propose a conceptual framework within which empirical data could be used to generate hypotheses regarding the realized, fundamental, and 'tolerance' niche of species. Although these niche components have rarely been characterized over geographic scales, we suggest that this could be done for many plant species by comparing native, naturalized, and horticultural distributions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large fluctuations of the macroscopic current in diffusive systems: a numerical test of the additivity principle.

PubMed

Hurtado, Pablo I; Garrido, Pedro L

2010-04-01

Most systems, when pushed out of equilibrium, respond by building up currents of locally conserved observables. Understanding how microscopic dynamics determines the averages and fluctuations of these currents is one of the main open problems in nonequilibrium statistical physics. The additivity principle is a theoretical proposal that allows to compute the current distribution in many one-dimensional nonequilibrium systems. Using simulations, we validate this conjecture in a simple and general model of energy transport, both in the presence of a temperature gradient and in canonical equilibrium. In particular, we show that the current distribution displays a Gaussian regime for small current fluctuations, as prescribed by the central limit theorem, and non-Gaussian (exponential) tails for large current deviations, obeying in all cases the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation theorem. In order to facilitate a given current fluctuation, the system adopts a well-defined temperature profile different from that of the steady state and in accordance with the additivity hypothesis predictions. System statistics during a large current fluctuation is independent of the sign of the current, which implies that the optimal profile (as well as higher-order profiles and spatial correlations) are invariant upon current inversion. We also demonstrate that finite-time joint fluctuations of the current and the profile are well described by the additivity functional. These results suggest the additivity hypothesis as a general and powerful tool to compute current distributions in many nonequilibrium systems.

Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

PubMed Central

Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

PubMed

Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

A novel approach for modelling vegetation distributions and analysing vegetation sensitivity through trait-climate relationships in China

PubMed Central

Yang, Yanzheng; Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Wang, Han; Xue, Wei; Lin, Guanghui; Wen, Zhongming; Chang, Jie; Wang, Meng; Liu, Guobin; Li, Shiqing

2016-01-01

Increasing evidence indicates that current dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have suffered from insufficient realism and are difficult to improve, particularly because they are built on plant functional type (PFT) schemes. Therefore, new approaches, such as plant trait-based methods, are urgently needed to replace PFT schemes when predicting the distribution of vegetation and investigating vegetation sensitivity. As an important direction towards constructing next-generation DGVMs based on plant functional traits, we propose a novel approach for modelling vegetation distributions and analysing vegetation sensitivity through trait-climate relationships in China. The results demonstrated that a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) trained with a LMA-Nmass-LAI data combination yielded an accuracy of 72.82% in simulating vegetation distribution, providing more detailed parameter information regarding community structures and ecosystem functions. The new approach also performed well in analyses of vegetation sensitivity to different climatic scenarios. Although the trait-climate relationship is not the only candidate useful for predicting vegetation distributions and analysing climatic sensitivity, it sheds new light on the development of next-generation trait-based DGVMs. PMID:27052108

A model of annular linear induction pumps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Momozaki, Yoichi

2016-10-27

The present work explains how the magnetic field and the induced current are obtained when the distributed coils are powered by a 3 phase power supply.  From the magnetic field and the induced current, the thrust and the induction losses in the pump can be calculated to estimate the pump performance.

Mobility of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures: Impact of waves, currents and storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Siddhi; Duffy, Garret Patrick; Brown, Colin

2017-04-01

Maerl beds are free-living, non-geniculate coralline algae habitats which form biogenic reefs with high micro-scale complexity supporting a diversity and abundance of rare epifauna and epiflora. These habitats are highly mobile in shallow marine environments where substantial maerl beds co-exist with siliciclastic sediment, exemplified by our study site of Galway Bay. Coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport models have been used to explore the transport patterns of maerl-siliciclastic sediment during calm summer conditions and severe winter storms. The sediment distribution is strongly influenced by storm waves even in water depths greater than 100 m. Maerl is present at the periphery of wave-induced residual current gyres during storm conditions. A combined wave-current Sediment Mobility Index during storm conditions shows correlation with multibeam backscatter and surficial sediment distribution. A combined wave-current Mobilization Frequency Index during storm conditions acts as a physical surrogate for the presence of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures in Galway Bay. Both indices can provide useful integrated oceanographic and sediment information to complement coupled numerical hydrodynamic, sediment transport and erosion-deposition models.

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector

PubMed Central

Piaggio, Antoinette J.

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 “worst-case” future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México–U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely. PMID:29466401

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector.

PubMed

Hayes, Mark A; Piaggio, Antoinette J

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 "worst-case" future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México-U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely.

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SEMICONDUCTOR INJECTION LASERS SELCO-87: Computer model for quasioptic waveguide lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, H.; Wünsche, H. J.

1988-11-01

A description is given of a numerical model of a semiconductor laser with a quasioptic waveguide (index guide). This model can be used on a personal computer. The model can be used to find the radiation field distributions in the vertical and lateral directions, the pump currents at the threshold, and also to solve dynamic rate equations.

Current density in a model of a human body with a conductive implant exposed to ELF electric and magnetic fields.

PubMed

Valic, Blaz; Gajsek, Peter; Miklavcic, Damijan

2009-10-01

A numerical model of a human body with an intramedullary nail in the femur was built to evaluate the effects of the implant on the current density distribution in extremely low frequency electric and magnetic fields. The intramedullary nail was chosen because it is one of the longest high conductive implants used in the human body. As such it is expected to alter the electric and magnetic fields significantly. The exposure was a simultaneous combination of inferior to superior electric field and posterior to anterior magnetic field both alternating at 50 Hz with the values corresponding to the ICNIRP reference levels: 5000 V m(-1) for electric field and 100 microT for magnetic flux density. The calculated current density distribution inside the model was compared to the ICNIRP basic restrictions for general public (2 mA m(-2)). The results show that the implant significantly increases the current density up to 9.5 mA m(-2) in the region where it is in contact with soft tissue in the model with the implant in comparison to 0.9 mA m(-2) in the model without the implant. As demonstrated the ICNIRP basic restrictions are exceeded in a limited volume of the tissue in spite of the compliance with the ICNIRP reference levels for general public, meaning that the existing safety limits do not necessarily protect implanted persons to the same extent as they protect people without implants.

Note: Void effects on eddy current distortion in two-phase liquid metal.

PubMed

Kumar, M; Tordjeman, Ph; Bergez, W; Cavaro, M

2015-10-01

A model based on the first order perturbation expansion of magnetic flux in a two-phase liquid metal flow has been developed for low magnetic Reynolds number Rem. This model takes into account the distortion of the induced eddy currents due to the presence of void in the conducting medium. Specific experiments with an eddy current flow meter have been realized for two periodic void distributions. The results have shown, in agreement with the model, that the effects of velocity and void on the emf modulation are decoupled. The magnitude of the void fraction and the void spatial frequency can be determined from the spectral density of the demodulated emf.

Electric field computation and measurements in the electroporation of inhomogeneous samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardis, Alessia; Bullo, Marco; Campana, Luca Giovanni; Di Barba, Paolo; Dughiero, Fabrizio; Forzan, Michele; Mognaschi, Maria Evelina; Sgarbossa, Paolo; Sieni, Elisabetta

2017-12-01

In clinical treatments of a class of tumors, e.g. skin tumors, the drug uptake of tumor tissue is helped by means of a pulsed electric field, which permeabilizes the cell membranes. This technique, which is called electroporation, exploits the conductivity of the tissues: however, the tumor tissue could be characterized by inhomogeneous areas, eventually causing a non-uniform distribution of current. In this paper, the authors propose a field model to predict the effect of tissue inhomogeneity, which can affect the current density distribution. In particular, finite-element simulations, considering non-linear conductivity against field relationship, are developed. Measurements on a set of samples subject to controlled inhomogeneity make it possible to assess the numerical model in view of identifying the equivalent resistance between pairs of electrodes.

Ontology for Life-Cycle Modeling of Electrical Distribution Systems: Application of Model View Definition Attributes

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

Building in- formation exchange (COBie), Building Information Modeling ( BIM ) 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF...to develop a life-cycle building model have resulted in the definition of a “core” building information model that contains general information de...develop an information -exchange Model View Definition (MVD) for building electrical systems. The objective of the current work was to document the

Occurrence and distribution of Indian primates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2010-01-01

Global and regional species conservation efforts are hindered by poor distribution data and range maps. Many Indian primates face extinction, but assessments of population status are hindered by lack of reliable distribution data. We estimated the current occurrence and distribution of 15 Indian primates by applying occupancy models to field data from a country-wide survey of local experts. We modeled species occurrence in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics, and human influences), which we believe are critical to determining species occurrence in India. We found evidence that protected areas positively influence occurrence of seven species and for some species are their only refuge. We found evergreen forests to be more critical for some primates along with temperate and deciduous forests. Elevation negatively influenced occurrence of three species. Lower human population density was positively associated with occurrence of five species, and higher cultural tolerance was positively associated with occurrence of three species. We find that 11 primates occupy less than 15% of the total land area of India. Vulnerable primates with restricted ranges are Golden langur, Arunachal macaque, Pig-tailed macaque, stump-tailed macaque, Phayre's leaf monkey, Nilgiri langur and Lion-tailed macaque. Only Hanuman langur and rhesus macaque are widely distributed. We find occupancy modeling to be useful in determining species ranges, and in agreement with current species ranking and IUCN status. In landscapes where monitoring efforts require optimizing cost, effort and time, we used ecological and social covariates to reliably estimate species occurrence and focus species conservation efforts. ?? Elsevier Ltd.

Dispersal and extrapolation on the accuracy of temporal predictions from distribution models for the Darwin's frog.

PubMed

Uribe-Rivera, David E; Soto-Azat, Claudio; Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Bizama, Gustavo; Simonetti, Javier A; Pliscoff, Patricio

2017-07-01

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity; the development of models that reliably predict its effects on species distributions is a priority for conservation biogeography. Two of the main issues for accurate temporal predictions from Species Distribution Models (SDM) are model extrapolation and unrealistic dispersal scenarios. We assessed the consequences of these issues on the accuracy of climate-driven SDM predictions for the dispersal-limited Darwin's frog Rhinoderma darwinii in South America. We calibrated models using historical data (1950-1975) and projected them across 40 yr to predict distribution under current climatic conditions, assessing predictive accuracy through the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS), contrasting binary model predictions against temporal-independent validation data set (i.e., current presences/absences). To assess the effects of incorporating dispersal processes we compared the predictive accuracy of dispersal constrained models with no dispersal limited SDMs; and to assess the effects of model extrapolation on the predictive accuracy of SDMs, we compared this between extrapolated and no extrapolated areas. The incorporation of dispersal processes enhanced predictive accuracy, mainly due to a decrease in the false presence rate of model predictions, which is consistent with discrimination of suitable but inaccessible habitat. This also had consequences on range size changes over time, which is the most used proxy for extinction risk from climate change. The area of current climatic conditions that was absent in the baseline conditions (i.e., extrapolated areas) represents 39% of the study area, leading to a significant decrease in predictive accuracy of model predictions for those areas. Our results highlight (1) incorporating dispersal processes can improve predictive accuracy of temporal transference of SDMs and reduce uncertainties of extinction risk assessments from global change; (2) as geographical areas subjected to novel climates are expected to arise, they must be reported as they show less accurate predictions under future climate scenarios. Consequently, environmental extrapolation and dispersal processes should be explicitly incorporated to report and reduce uncertainties in temporal predictions of SDMs, respectively. Doing so, we expect to improve the reliability of the information we provide for conservation decision makers under future climate change scenarios. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Understanding Breaks in Flare X-Ray Spectra: Evaluation of a Cospatial Collisional Return-current Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alaoui, Meriem; Holman, Gordon D.

2017-12-01

Hard X-ray (HXR) spectral breaks are explained in terms of a one-dimensional model with a cospatial return current. We study 19 flares observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager with strong spectral breaks at energies around a few deka-keV, which cannot be explained by isotropic albedo or non-uniform ionization alone. We identify these breaks at the HXR peak time, but we obtain 8 s cadence spectra of the entire impulsive phase. Electrons with an initially power-law distribution and a sharp low-energy cutoff lose energy through return-current losses until they reach the thick target, where they lose their remaining energy through collisions. Our main results are as follows. (1) The return-current collisional thick-target model provides acceptable fits for spectra with strong breaks. (2) Limits on the plasma resistivity are derived from the fitted potential drop and deduced electron-beam flux density, assuming the return current is a drift current in the ambient plasma. These resistivities are typically 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than the Spitzer resistivity at the fitted temperature, and provide a test for the adequacy of classical resistivity and the stability of the return current. (3) Using the upper limit of the low-energy cutoff, the return current is always stable to the generation of ion-acoustic and electrostatic ion-cyclotron instabilities when the electron temperature is nine times lower than the ion temperature. (4) In most cases, the return current is most likely primarily carried by runaway electrons from the tail of the thermal distribution rather than by the bulk drifting thermal electrons. For these cases, anomalous resistivity is not required.

Phase space effects on fast ion transport modeling in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podesta, Mario

2015-11-01

Simulations of burning plasmas require a consistent treatment of energetic particles (EP), possibly including the effects of instabilities. Reduced EP transport models are emerging as an effective tool to account for those effects in long time-scale simulations. Available models essentially differ for the main transport drive, which is associated to gradients in real or phase space. It is crucial to assess to what extent those different assumptions affect computed quantities such as EP profile, Neutral Beam (NB) driven current and energy/momentum transfer to the thermal populations. These issues are investigated through a kick model, which includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in real and velocity space. TRANSP simulations including the kick model are applied to NB-heated NSTX discharges featuring unstable toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs). Results show that TAEs mainly affect fast ions with large parallel velocity, i.e. the most effective for NB current drive. Other portions of the EP distribution are nearly unperturbed. Core NB driven current decreases by 10-30%, with even larger relative changes toward the plasma edge. When TAEs evolve in so-called avalanches, the model reproduces measured drops of ~ 10% in the neutron rate. Consistently with previous results, the drop is caused by both EP energy loss and EP redistribution. These results are compared to those from a simple diffusive model and a ``critical gradient'' model, which postulates radial EP gradient as the only transport drive. The importance of EP velocity space modifications is discussed in terms of accuracy of the predictions, with emphasis on Neutral Beam driven current. Work supported by U.S. DOE Contract DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Inflationary tensor fossils in large-scale structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimastrogiovanni, Emanuela; Fasiello, Matteo; Jeong, Donghui

Inflation models make specific predictions for a tensor-scalar-scalar three-point correlation, or bispectrum, between one gravitational-wave (tensor) mode and two density-perturbation (scalar) modes. This tensor-scalar-scalar correlation leads to a local power quadrupole, an apparent departure from statistical isotropy in our Universe, as well as characteristic four-point correlations in the current mass distribution in the Universe. So far, the predictions for these observables have been worked out only for single-clock models in which certain consistency conditions between the tensor-scalar-scalar correlation and tensor and scalar power spectra are satisfied. Here we review the requirements on inflation models for these consistency conditions to bemore » satisfied. We then consider several examples of inflation models, such as non-attractor and solid-inflation models, in which these conditions are put to the test. In solid inflation the simplest consistency conditions are already violated whilst in the non-attractor model we find that, contrary to the standard scenario, the tensor-scalar-scalar correlator probes directly relevant model-dependent information. We work out the predictions for observables in these models. For non-attractor inflation we find an apparent local quadrupolar departure from statistical isotropy in large-scale structure but that this power quadrupole decreases very rapidly at smaller scales. The consistency of the CMB quadrupole with statistical isotropy then constrains the distance scale that corresponds to the transition from the non-attractor to attractor phase of inflation to be larger than the currently observable horizon. Solid inflation predicts clustering fossils signatures in the current galaxy distribution that may be large enough to be detectable with forthcoming, and possibly even current, galaxy surveys.« less

Pleistocene glacial refugia across the Appalachian Mountains and coastal plain in the millipede genus Narceus: Evidence from population genetic, phylogeographic, and paleoclimatic data

PubMed Central

Walker, Matt J; Stockman, Amy K; Marek, Paul E; Bond, Jason E

2009-01-01

Background Species that are widespread throughout historically glaciated and currently non-glaciated areas provide excellent opportunities to investigate the role of Pleistocene climatic change on the distribution of North American biodiversity. Many studies indicate that northern animal populations exhibit low levels of genetic diversity over geographically widespread areas whereas southern populations exhibit relatively high levels. Recently, paleoclimatic data have been combined with niche-based distribution modeling to locate possible refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Using phylogeographic, population, and paleoclimatic data, we show that the distribution and mitochondrial data for the millipede genus Narceus are consistent with classical examples of Pleistocene refugia and subsequent post-glacial population expansion seen in other organismal groups. Results The phylogeographic structure of Narceus reveals a complex evolutionary history with signatures of multiple refugia in southeastern North America followed by two major northern expansions. Evidence for refugial populations were found in the southern Appalachian Mountains and in the coastal plain. The northern expansions appear to have radiated from two separate refugia, one from the Gulf Coastal Plain area and the other from the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Distributional models of Narceus during the Last Glacial Maximum show a dramatic reduction from the current distribution, with suitable ecological zones concentrated along the Gulf and Atlantic coastal plain. We found a strong correlation between these zones of ecological suitability inferred from our paleo-model with levels of genetic diversity derived from phylogenetic and population estimates of genetic structuring. Conclusion The signature of climatic change, during and after the Pleistocene, on the distribution of the millipede genus Narceus is evident in the genetic data presented. Niche-based historical distribution modeling strengthens the conclusions drawn from the genetic data and proves useful in identifying probable refugia. Such interdisciplinary biogeographic studies provide a comprehensive approach to understanding these processes that generate and maintain biodiversity as well as the framework necessary to explore questions regarding evolutionary diversification of taxa. PMID:19183468

A four-dimensional primitive equation model for coupled coastal-deep ocean studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haidvogel, D. B.

1981-01-01

A prototype four dimensional continental shelf/deep ocean model is described. In its present form, the model incorporates the effects of finite amplitude topography, advective nonlinearities, and variable stratification and rotation. The model can be forced either directly by imposed atmospheric windstress and surface pressure distributions, and energetic mean currents imposed by the exterior oceanic circulation; or indirectly by initial distributions of shoreward propagation mesoscale waves and eddies. To avoid concerns over the appropriate specification of 'open' boundary conditions on the cross-shelf and seaward model boundaries, a periodic channel geometry (oriented along-coast) is used. The model employs a traditional finite difference expansion in the cross-shelf direction, and a Fourier (periodic) representation in the long-shelf coordinate.

Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.

2011-12-01

Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

Using landscape epidemiological models to understand the distribution of chronic wasting disease in the Midwestern USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Rolley, Robert E.; Shelton, Paul

2013-01-01

Animal movement across the landscape plays a critical role in the ecology of infectious wildlife diseases. Dispersing animals can spread pathogens between infected areas and naïve populations. While tracking free-ranging animals over the geographic scales relevant to landscape-level disease management is challenging, landscape features that influence gene flow among wildlife populations may also influence the contact rates and disease spread between populations. We used spatial diffusion and barriers to white-tailed deer gene flow, identified through landscape genetics, to model the distribution of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the infected region of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, USA. Our generalized linear model showed that risk of CWD infection declined exponentially with distance from current outbreaks, and inclusion of gene flow barriers dramatically improved fit and predictive power of the model. Our results indicate that CWD is spreading across the Midwestern landscape from these two endemic foci, but spread is strongly influenced by highways and rivers that also reduce deer gene flow. We used our model to plot a risk map, providing important information for CWD management by identifying likely routes of disease spread and providing a tool for prioritizing disease monitoring and containment efforts. The current analysis may serve as a framework for modeling future disease risk drawing on genetic information to investigate barriers to spread and extending management and monitoring beyond currently affected regions.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Calculating Formulae of Proportion Factor and Mean Neutron Exposure in the Exponential Expression of Neutron Exposure Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng-Hua, Zhang; Gui-De, Zhou; Kun, Ma; Wen-Juan, Ma; Wen-Yuan, Cui; Bo, Zhang

2016-07-01

Previous studies have shown that, for the three main stages of the development and evolution of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star s-process models, the neutron exposure distribution (DNE) in the nucleosynthesis region can always be considered as an exponential function, i.e., ρAGB(τ) = C/τ0 exp(-τ/τ0) in an effective range of the neutron exposure values. However, the specific expressions of the proportion factor C and the mean neutron exposure τ0 in the exponential distribution function for different models are not completely determined in the related literature. Through dissecting the basic method to obtain the exponential DNE, and systematically analyzing the solution procedures of neutron exposure distribution functions in different stellar models, the general formulae, as well as their auxiliary equations, for calculating C and τ0 are derived. Given the discrete neutron exposure distribution Pk, the relationships of C and τ0 with the model parameters can be determined. The result of this study has effectively solved the problem to analytically calculate the DNE in the current low-mass AGB star s-process nucleosynthesis model of 13C-pocket radiative burning.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

2017-01-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

A distributed parameter model of transmission line transformer for high voltage nanosecond pulse generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiangtao; Zhao, Zheng; Li, Longjie; He, Jiaxin; Li, Chenjie; Wang, Yifeng; Su, Can

2017-09-01

A transmission line transformer has potential advantages for nanosecond pulse generation including excellent frequency response and no leakage inductance. The wave propagation process in a secondary mode line is indispensable due to an obvious inside transient electromagnetic transition in this scenario. The equivalent model of the transmission line transformer is crucial for predicting the output waveform and evaluating the effects of magnetic cores on output performance. However, traditional lumped parameter models are not sufficient for nanosecond pulse generation due to the natural neglect of wave propagations in secondary mode lines based on a lumped parameter assumption. In this paper, a distributed parameter model of transmission line transformer was established to investigate wave propagation in the secondary mode line and its influential factors through theoretical analysis and experimental verification. The wave propagation discontinuity in the secondary mode line induced by magnetic cores is emphasized. Characteristics of the magnetic core under a nanosecond pulse were obtained by experiments. Distribution and formation of the secondary mode current were determined for revealing essential wave propagation processes in secondary mode lines. The output waveform and efficiency were found to be affected dramatically by wave propagation discontinuity in secondary mode lines induced by magnetic cores. The proposed distributed parameter model was proved more suitable for nanosecond pulse generation in aspects of secondary mode current, output efficiency, and output waveform. In depth, comprehension of underlying mechanisms and a broader view of the working principle of the transmission line transformer for nanosecond pulse generation can be obtained through this research.

Modelling of gas-metal arc welding taking into account metal vapour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnick, M.; Fuessel, U.; Hertel, M.; Haessler, M.; Spille-Kohoff, A.; Murphy, A. B.

2010-11-01

The most advanced numerical models of gas-metal arc welding (GMAW) neglect vaporization of metal, and assume an argon atmosphere for the arc region, as is also common practice for models of gas-tungsten arc welding (GTAW). These models predict temperatures above 20 000 K and a temperature distribution similar to GTAW arcs. However, spectroscopic temperature measurements in GMAW arcs demonstrate much lower arc temperatures. In contrast to measurements of GTAW arcs, they have shown the presence of a central local minimum of the radial temperature distribution. This paper presents a GMAW model that takes into account metal vapour and that is able to predict the local central minimum in the radial distributions of temperature and electric current density. The influence of different values for the net radiative emission coefficient of iron vapour, which vary by up to a factor of hundred, is examined. It is shown that these net emission coefficients cause differences in the magnitudes, but not in the overall trends, of the radial distribution of temperature and current density. Further, the influence of the metal vaporization rate is investigated. We present evidence that, for higher vaporization rates, the central flow velocity inside the arc is decreased and can even change direction so that it is directed from the workpiece towards the wire, although the outer plasma flow is still directed towards the workpiece. In support of this thesis, we have attempted to reproduce the measurements of Zielińska et al for spray-transfer mode GMAW numerically, and have obtained reasonable agreement.

A distributed parameter model of transmission line transformer for high voltage nanosecond pulse generation.

PubMed

Li, Jiangtao; Zhao, Zheng; Li, Longjie; He, Jiaxin; Li, Chenjie; Wang, Yifeng; Su, Can

2017-09-01

A transmission line transformer has potential advantages for nanosecond pulse generation including excellent frequency response and no leakage inductance. The wave propagation process in a secondary mode line is indispensable due to an obvious inside transient electromagnetic transition in this scenario. The equivalent model of the transmission line transformer is crucial for predicting the output waveform and evaluating the effects of magnetic cores on output performance. However, traditional lumped parameter models are not sufficient for nanosecond pulse generation due to the natural neglect of wave propagations in secondary mode lines based on a lumped parameter assumption. In this paper, a distributed parameter model of transmission line transformer was established to investigate wave propagation in the secondary mode line and its influential factors through theoretical analysis and experimental verification. The wave propagation discontinuity in the secondary mode line induced by magnetic cores is emphasized. Characteristics of the magnetic core under a nanosecond pulse were obtained by experiments. Distribution and formation of the secondary mode current were determined for revealing essential wave propagation processes in secondary mode lines. The output waveform and efficiency were found to be affected dramatically by wave propagation discontinuity in secondary mode lines induced by magnetic cores. The proposed distributed parameter model was proved more suitable for nanosecond pulse generation in aspects of secondary mode current, output efficiency, and output waveform. In depth, comprehension of underlying mechanisms and a broader view of the working principle of the transmission line transformer for nanosecond pulse generation can be obtained through this research.

Variances in the projections, resulting from CLIMEX, Boosted Regression Trees and Random Forests techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Solhjouy-fard, Samaneh

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to have a comparative investigation and evaluation of the capabilities of correlative and mechanistic modeling processes, applied to the projection of future distributions of date palm in novel environments and to establish a method of minimizing uncertainty in the projections of differing techniques. The location of this study on a global scale is in Middle Eastern Countries. We compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX (CL) with the correlative models MaxEnt (MX), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF) to project current and future distributions of date palm ( Phoenix dactylifera L.). The Global Climate Model (GCM), the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) using the A2 emissions scenario, was selected for making projections. Both indigenous and alien distribution data of the species were utilized in the modeling process. The common areas predicted by MX, BRT, RF, and CL from the CS GCM were extracted and compared to ascertain projection uncertainty levels of each individual technique. The common areas identified by all four modeling techniques were used to produce a map indicating suitable and unsuitable areas for date palm cultivation for Middle Eastern countries, for the present and the year 2100. The four different modeling approaches predict fairly different distributions. Projections from CL were more conservative than from MX. The BRT and RF were the most conservative methods in terms of projections for the current time. The combination of the final CL and MX projections for the present and 2100 provide higher certainty concerning those areas that will become highly suitable for future date palm cultivation. According to the four models, cold, hot, and wet stress, with differences on a regional basis, appears to be the major restrictions on future date palm distribution. The results demonstrate variances in the projections, resulting from different techniques. The assessment and interpretation of model projections requires reservations, especially in correlative models such as MX, BRT, and RF. Intersections between different techniques may decrease uncertainty in future distribution projections. However, readers should not miss the fact that the uncertainties are mostly because the future GHG emission scenarios are unknowable with sufficient precision. Suggestions towards methodology and processing for improving projections are included.

Effect of injection current and temperature on signal strength in a laser diode optical feedback interferometer.

PubMed

Al Roumy, Jalal; Perchoux, Julien; Lim, Yah Leng; Taimre, Thomas; Rakić, Aleksandar D; Bosch, Thierry

2015-01-10

We present a simple analytical model that describes the injection current and temperature dependence of optical feedback interferometry signal strength for a single-mode laser diode. The model is derived from the Lang and Kobayashi rate equations, and is developed both for signals acquired from the monitoring photodiode (proportional to the variations in optical power) and for those obtained by amplification of the corresponding variations in laser voltage. The model shows that both the photodiode and the voltage signal strengths are dependent on the laser slope efficiency, which itself is a function of the injection current and the temperature. Moreover, the model predicts that the photodiode and voltage signal strengths depend differently on injection current and temperature. This important model prediction was proven experimentally for a near-infrared distributed feedback laser by measuring both types of signals over a wide range of injection currents and temperatures. Therefore, this simple model provides important insight into the radically different biasing strategies required to achieve optimal sensor sensitivity for both interferometric signal acquisition schemes.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

The influence of the breakdown electric field in the configuration of lightning corona sheath on charge distribution in the channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ignjatovic, Milan; Cvetic, Jovan; Heidler, Fridolin; Markovic, Slavoljub; Djuric, Radivoje

2014-11-01

A model of corona sheath that surrounds the thin core of the lightning channel has been investigated by using a generalized traveling current source return stroke model. The lightning channel is modeled by a charged corona sheath that stretches around a highly conductive central core through which the main current flows. The channel core with the negatively charged outer channel sheath forms a strong electric field, with an overall radial orientation. The return stroke process is modeled as the negative leader charge in the corona sheath being discharged by the positive charge coming from the channel core. Expressions that describe how the corona sheath radius evolves during the return stroke are obtained from the corona sheath model, which predicts charge motion within the sheath. The corona sheath model, set forth by Maslowski and Rakov (2006), Tausanovic et al. (2010), Marjanovic and Cvetic (2009), Cvetic et al. (2011) and Cvetic et al. (2012), divides the sheath onto three zones: zone 1 (surrounding the channel core with net positive charge), zone 2 (surrounding zone 1 with negative charge) and zone 3 (the outer zone, representing uncharged virgin air). In the present study, we have assumed a constant electric field inside zone 1, as suggested by experimental research of corona discharges in coaxial geometry conducted by Cooray (2000). The present investigation builds upon previous studies by Tausanovic et al. (2010) and Cvetic et al. (2012) in several ways. The value of the breakdown electric field has been varied for probing its effect on channel charge distribution prior and during the return stroke. With the aim of investigating initial space charge distribution along the channel, total electric field at the outer surface of the channel corona sheath, just before the return stroke, is calculated and compared for various return stroke models. A self-consistent algorithm is applied to the generalized traveling current source return stroke model, so that the boundary condition for total electric field is fulfilled. The new density of space charge and the new radius of channel corona envelope, immediately before the return stroke stage, are calculated. The obtained results indicate a strong dependence of channel charge distribution on the breakdown electric field value. Among the compared return stroke models, transmission-line-type models have exhibited a good agreement with the predictions of the Gauss' law regarding total breakdown electric field on the corona sheath's outer surface. The generalized lightning traveling current source return stroke model gives similar results if the adjustment of the space charge density inside the corona sheath is performed.

Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses.

PubMed

Fuller, Robert William; Wong, Tony E; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing global temperatures is a key component of sea-level projections. Current projections of the AIS contribution to sea-level changes are deeply uncertain. This deep uncertainty stems, in part, from (i) the inability of current models to fully resolve key processes and scales, (ii) the relatively sparse available data, and (iii) divergent expert assessments. One promising approach to characterizing the deep uncertainty stemming from divergent expert assessments is to combine expert assessments, observations, and simple models by coupling probabilistic inversion and Bayesian inversion. Here, we present a proof-of-concept study that uses probabilistic inversion to fuse a simple AIS model and diverse expert assessments. We demonstrate the ability of probabilistic inversion to infer joint prior probability distributions of model parameters that are consistent with expert assessments. We then confront these inferred expert priors with instrumental and paleoclimatic observational data in a Bayesian inversion. These additional constraints yield tighter hindcasts and projections. We use this approach to quantify how the deep uncertainty surrounding expert assessments affects the joint probability distributions of model parameters and future projections.

Model of lightning strike to a steel reinforce structure using PSpice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koone, Neil; Condren, Brian

2003-03-01

Surges and arcs from lightning can pose hazards to personnel and sensitive equipment and processes. Steel reinforcement in structures can act as a Faraday cage mitigating lightning effects. Knowing a structure's response to a lightning strike allows hazards associated with lightning to be analyzed. A model of lightning's response in a steel reinforced structure has been developed using PSpice (a commercial circuit simulation). Segments of rebar are modeled as inductors and resistors in series. A program has been written to take architectural information of a steel reinforced structure and "build" a circuit network that is analogous to the network of reinforcement in a facility. A severe current waveform (simulating a 99th percentile lightning strike), modeled as a current source, is introduced in the circuit network, and potential differences within the structure are determined using PSpice. A visual three-dimensional model of the facility displays the voltage distribution across the structure using color to indicate the potential difference relative to the floor. Clear air arcing distances can be calculated from the voltage distribution using a conservative value for the dielectric breakdown strength of air.

Individual differences in transcranial electrical stimulation current density

PubMed Central

Russell, Michael J; Goodman, Theodore; Pierson, Ronald; Shepherd, Shane; Wang, Qiang; Groshong, Bennett; Wiley, David F

2013-01-01

Transcranial electrical stimulation (TCES) is effective in treating many conditions, but it has not been possible to accurately forecast current density within the complex anatomy of a given subject's head. We sought to predict and verify TCES current densities and determine the variability of these current distributions in patient-specific models based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. Two experiments were performed. The first experiment estimated conductivity from MRIs and compared the current density results against actual measurements from the scalp surface of 3 subjects. In the second experiment, virtual electrodes were placed on the scalps of 18 subjects to model simulated current densities with 2 mA of virtually applied stimulation. This procedure was repeated for 4 electrode locations. Current densities were then calculated for 75 brain regions. Comparison of modeled and measured external current in experiment 1 yielded a correlation of r = .93. In experiment 2, modeled individual differences were greatest near the electrodes (ten-fold differences were common), but simulated current was found in all regions of the brain. Sites that were distant from the electrodes (e.g. hypothalamus) typically showed two-fold individual differences. MRI-based modeling can effectively predict current densities in individual brains. Significant variation occurs between subjects with the same applied electrode configuration. Individualized MRI-based modeling should be considered in place of the 10-20 system when accurate TCES is needed. PMID:24285948

Use of the ventricular propagated excitation model in the magnetocardiographic inverse problem for reconstruction of electrophysiological properties.

PubMed

Ohyu, Shigeharu; Okamoto, Yoshiwo; Kuriki, Shinya

2002-06-01

A novel magnetocardiographic inverse method for reconstructing the action potential amplitude (APA) and the activation time (AT) on the ventricular myocardium is proposed. This method is based on the propagated excitation model, in which the excitation is propagated through the ventricle with nonuniform height of action potential. Assumption of stepwise waveform on the transmembrane potential was introduced in the model. Spatial gradient of transmembrane potential, which is defined by APA and AT distributed in the ventricular wall, is used for the computation of a current source distribution. Based on this source model, the distributions of APA and AT are inversely reconstructed from the QRS interval of magnetocardiogram (MCG) utilizing a maximum a posteriori approach. The proposed reconstruction method was tested through computer simulations. Stability of the methods with respect to measurement noise was demonstrated. When reference APA was provided as a uniform distribution, root-mean-square errors of estimated APA were below 10 mV for MCG signal-to-noise ratios greater than, or equal to, 20 dB. Low-amplitude regions located at several sites in reference APA distributions were correctly reproduced in reconstructed APA distributions. The goal of our study is to develop a method for detecting myocardial ischemia through the depression of reconstructed APA distributions.

The Impact of Infiltration Losses and Model Resolution on the Simulated Hydrometeorological Response of a Semi-Arid Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, M. F.; Goodrich, D. C.; Gochis, D. J.; Lahmers, T. M.

2017-12-01

In semi-arid environments with complex terrain, redistribution of moisture occurs through runoff, stream infiltration, and regional groundwater flow. In semi-arid regions, stream infiltration has been shown to account for 10-40% of total recharge in high runoff years. These processes can potentially significantly alter land-atmosphere interactions through changes in sensible and latent heat release. However, currently, their overall impact is still unclear as historical model simulations generally made use of a coarse grid resolution, where these smaller-scale processes were either parameterized or not accounted for. To improve our understanding on the importance of stream infiltration and our ability to represent them in a coupled land-atmosphere model, this study focuses on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) and Long-Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site, surrounding the city of Tombstone, AZ. High-resolution surface precipitation, meteorological forcing and distributed runoff measurements have been obtained in WGEW since the 1960s. These data will be used as input for the spatially distributed WRF-Hydro model, a spatially distributed hydrological model that uses the NOAH-MP land surface model. Recently, we have implemented an infiltration loss scheme to WRF-Hydro. We will present the performance of WRF-Hydro to account for stream infiltration by comparing model simulation with in-situ observations. More specifically, as the performance of the model simulations has been shown to depend on the used model grid resolution, in the current work results will present WRF-Hydro simulations obtained at different pixel resolution (10-1000m).

Two-dimensional quasi-neutral description of particles and fields above discrete auroral arcs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, A. L.; Chiu, Y. T.; Cornwall, J. M.

1986-01-01

Models are presented for particle distributions, electric fields and currents in an adiabatic treatment of auroral electrostatic potential distributions in order to describe the quiet-time evening auroral arcs featuring both upward and return currents. The models are consistent with current continuity and charge balance requirements for particle populations controlled by adiabatic invariants and quasi-neutrality in the magnetosphere. The effective energy of the cool electron population is demonstrated to have a significant effect on the latitudinal breadth of the auroral electrostatic potential structure and the extent of the penetration of the accelerating potential into the ionosphere. Another finding is that the energy of any parallel potential drop in the lowest few thousand kilometers of the field line is of the same order of magnitude as the thermal energy of the cool electrons. Additional predictions include density cavities along field lines that support large potential drops, and density enhancements along field lines at the edge of an inverted V with a small potential drop.

Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts. PMID:24927165

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Probability elicitation to inform early health economic evaluations of new medical technologies: a case study in heart failure disease management.

PubMed

Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

2013-06-01

Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. For a willingness-to-pay value of €10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was €1.64 (interquartile range €0.05-€3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of €57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A finite element analysis of the effect of electrode area and inter-electrode distance on the spatial distribution of the current density in tDCS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faria, Paula; Hallett, Mark; Cavaleiro Miranda, Pedro

2011-12-01

We investigated the effect of electrode area and inter-electrode distance on the spatial distribution of the current density in transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). For this purpose, we used the finite element method to compute the distribution of the current density in a four-layered spherical head model using various electrode montages, corresponding to a range of electrode sizes and inter-electrode distances. We found that smaller electrodes required slightly less current to achieve a constant value of the current density at a reference point on the brain surface located directly under the electrode center. Under these conditions, smaller electrodes also produced a more focal current density distribution in the brain, i.e. the magnitude of the current density fell more rapidly with distance from the reference point. The combination of two electrodes with different areas produced an asymmetric current distribution that could lead to more effective and localized neural modulation under the smaller electrode than under the larger one. Focality improved rapidly with decreasing electrode size when the larger electrode sizes were considered but the improvement was less marked for the smaller electrode sizes. Also, focality was not affected significantly by inter-electrode distance unless two large electrodes were placed close together. Increasing the inter-electrode distance resulted in decreased shunting of the current through the scalp and the cerebrospinal fluid, and decreasing electrode area resulted in increased current density on the scalp under the edges of the electrode. Our calculations suggest that when working with conventional electrodes (25-35 cm2), one of the electrodes should be placed just 'behind' the target relative to the other electrode, for maximum current density on the target. Also electrodes with areas in the range 3.5-12 cm2 may provide a better compromise between focality and current density in the scalp than the traditional electrodes. Finally, the use of multiple small return electrodes may be more efficient than the use of a single large return electrode.

Estimating rate constants from single ion channel currents when the initial distribution is known.

PubMed

The, Yu-Kai; Fernandez, Jacqueline; Popa, M Oana; Lerche, Holger; Timmer, Jens

2005-06-01

Single ion channel currents can be analysed by hidden or aggregated Markov models. A classical result from Fredkin et al. (Proceedings of the Berkeley conference in honor of Jerzy Neyman and Jack Kiefer, vol I, pp 269-289, 1985) states that the maximum number of identifiable parameters is bounded by 2n(o)n(c), where n(o) and n(c) denote the number of open and closed states, respectively. We show that this bound can be overcome when the probabilities of the initial distribution are known and the data consist of several sweeps.

Comparative modelling of lower hybrid current drive with two launcher designs in the Tore Supra tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, E.; Decker, J.; Peysson, Y.; Artaud, J.-F.; Ekedahl, A.; Hillairet, J.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Goniche, M.; Imbeaux, F.; Mazon, D.; Sharma, P.

2013-08-01

Fully non-inductive operation with lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) in the Tore Supra tokamak is achieved using either a fully active multijunction (FAM) launcher or a more recent ITER-relevant passive active multijunction (PAM) launcher, or both launchers simultaneously. While both antennas show comparable experimental efficiencies, the analysis of stability properties in long discharges suggest different current profiles. We present comparative modelling of LHCD with the two different launchers to characterize the effect of the respective antenna spectra on the driven current profile. The interpretative modelling of LHCD is carried out using a chain of codes calculating, respectively, the global discharge evolution (tokamak simulator METIS), the spectrum at the antenna mouth (LH coupling code ALOHA), the LH wave propagation (ray-tracing code C3PO), and the distribution function (3D Fokker-Planck code LUKE). Essential aspects of the fast electron dynamics in time, space and energy are obtained from hard x-ray measurements of fast electron bremsstrahlung emission using a dedicated tomographic system. LHCD simulations are validated by systematic comparisons between these experimental measurements and the reconstructed signal calculated by the code R5X2 from the LUKE electron distribution. An excellent agreement is obtained in the presence of strong Landau damping (found under low density and high-power conditions in Tore Supra) for which the ray-tracing model is valid for modelling the LH wave propagation. Two aspects of the antenna spectra are found to have a significant effect on LHCD. First, the driven current is found to be proportional to the directivity, which depends upon the respective weight of the main positive and main negative lobes and is particularly sensitive to the density in front of the antenna. Second, the position of the main negative lobe in the spectrum is different for the two launchers. As this lobe drives a counter-current, the resulting driven current profile is also different for the FAM and PAM launchers.

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

Development and application of a 3-D geometry/mass model for LDEF satellite ionizing radiation assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colborn, B. L.; Armstrong, T. W.

1992-01-01

A computer model of the three dimensional geometry and material distributions for the LDEF spacecraft, experiment trays, and, for selected trays, the components of experiments within a tray was developed for use in ionizing radiation assessments. The model is being applied to provide 3-D shielding distributions around radiation dosimeters to aid in data interpretation, particularly in assessing the directional properties of the radiation exposure. Also, the model has been interfaced with radiation transport codes for 3-D dosimetry response predictions and for calculations related to determining the accuracy of trapped proton and cosmic ray environment models. The methodology is described used in developing the 3-D LDEF model and the level of detail incorporated. Currently, the trays modeled in detail are F2, F8, and H12 and H3. Applications of the model which are discussed include the 3-D shielding distributions around various dosimeters, the influence of shielding on dosimetry responses, and comparisons of dose predictions based on the present 3-D model vs those from 1-D geometry model approximations used in initial estimates.

A Simulation Framework for Battery Cell Impact Safety Modeling Using LS-DYNA

DOE PAGES

Marcicki, James; Zhu, Min; Bartlett, Alexander; ...

2017-02-04

The development process of electrified vehicles can benefit significantly from computer-aided engineering tools that predict themultiphysics response of batteries during abusive events. A coupled structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal model framework has been developed within the commercially available LS-DYNA software. The finite element model leverages a three-dimensional mesh structure that fully resolves the unit cell components. The mechanical solver predicts the distributed stress and strain response with failure thresholds leading to the onset of an internal short circuit. In this implementation, an arbitrary compressive strain criterion is applied locally to each unit cell. A spatially distributed equivalent circuit model providesmore » an empirical representation of the electrochemical responsewith minimal computational complexity.The thermalmodel provides state information to index the electrical model parameters, while simultaneously accepting irreversible and reversible sources of heat generation. The spatially distributed models of the electrical and thermal dynamics allow for the localization of current density and corresponding temperature response. The ability to predict the distributed thermal response of the cell as its stored energy is completely discharged through the short circuit enables an engineering safety assessment. A parametric analysis of an exemplary model is used to demonstrate the simulation capabilities.« less

Accelerating the Integration of Distributed Water Solutions: A Conceptual Financing Model from the Electricity Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesnel, Kimberly J.; Ajami, Newsha K.; Wyss, Noemi

2017-11-01

Modern challenges require new approaches to urban water management. One solution in the portfolio of potential strategies is the integration of distributed water infrastructure, practices, and technologies into existing systems. However, many practical barriers have prevented the widespread adoption of these systems in the US. The objective of this paper is to address these challenges by developing a conceptual model encompassing regulatory, financial, and governance components that can be used to incorporate new distributed water solutions into our current network. To construct the model, case studies of successfully implemented distributed electricity systems, specifically energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, were examined to determine how these solutions have become prominent in recent years and what lessons can be applied to the water sector in a similar pursuit. The proposed model includes four action-oriented elements: catalyzing change, establishing funding sources, using resource pathways, and creating innovative governance structures. As illustrated in the model, the water sector should use suite of coordinated policies to promote change, engage end users through fiscal incentives, and encourage research, development and dissemination of new technologies over time.

Accelerating the Integration of Distributed Water Solutions: A Conceptual Financing Model from the Electricity Sector.

PubMed

Quesnel, Kimberly J; Ajami, Newsha K; Wyss, Noemi

2017-11-01

Modern challenges require new approaches to urban water management. One solution in the portfolio of potential strategies is the integration of distributed water infrastructure, practices, and technologies into existing systems. However, many practical barriers have prevented the widespread adoption of these systems in the US. The objective of this paper is to address these challenges by developing a conceptual model encompassing regulatory, financial, and governance components that can be used to incorporate new distributed water solutions into our current network. To construct the model, case studies of successfully implemented distributed electricity systems, specifically energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, were examined to determine how these solutions have become prominent in recent years and what lessons can be applied to the water sector in a similar pursuit. The proposed model includes four action-oriented elements: catalyzing change, establishing funding sources, using resource pathways, and creating innovative governance structures. As illustrated in the model, the water sector should use suite of coordinated policies to promote change, engage end users through fiscal incentives, and encourage research, development and dissemination of new technologies over time.

Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation.

PubMed

Prieto-Torres, David A; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Santiago-Alarcon, Diego; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R

2016-01-01

Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate-change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clement, Matthew J.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Ziolkowski, David J.

2016-01-01

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

Expression for time travel based on diffusive wave theory: applicability and considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilera, J. C.; Escauriaza, C. R.; Passalacqua, P.; Gironas, J. A.

2017-12-01

Prediction of hydrological response is of utmost importance when dealing with urban planning, risk assessment, or water resources management issues. With the advent of climate change, special care must be taken with respect to variations in rainfall and runoff due to rising temperature averages. Nowadays, while typical workstations have adequate power to run distributed routing hydrological models, it is still not enough for modeling on-the-fly, a crucial ability in a natural disaster context, where rapid decisions must be made. Semi-distributed time travel models, which compute a watershed's hydrograph without explicitly solving the full shallow water equations, appear as an attractive approach to rainfall-runoff modeling since, like fully distributed models, also superimpose a grid on the watershed, and compute runoff based on cell parameter values. These models are heavily dependent on the travel time expression for an individual cell. Many models make use of expressions based on kinematic wave theory, which is not applicable in cases where watershed storage is important, such as mild slopes. This work presents a new expression for concentration times in overland flow, based on diffusive wave theory, which considers not only the effects of storage but also the effects on upstream contribution. Setting upstream contribution equal to zero gives an expression consistent with previous work on diffusive wave theory; on the other hand, neglecting storage effects (i.e.: diffusion,) is shown to be equivalent to kinematic wave theory, currently used in many spatially distributed time travel models. The newly found expression is shown to be dependent on plane discretization, particularly when dealing with very non-kinematic cases. This is shown to be the result of upstream contribution, which gets larger downstream, versus plane length. This result also provides some light on the limits on applicability of the expression: when a certain kinematic threshold is reached, the expression is no longer valid, and one must fall back to kinematic wave theory, for lack of a better option. This expression could be used for improving currently published spatially distributed time travel models, since they would become applicable in many new cases.

Vertical distribution of overpotentials and irreversible charge losses in lithium ion battery electrodes.

PubMed

Klink, Stefan; Schuhmann, Wolfgang; La Mantia, Fabio

2014-08-01

Porous lithium ion battery electrodes are characterized using a vertical distribution of cross-currents. In an appropriate simplification, this distribution can be described by a transmission line model (TLM) consisting of infinitely thin electrode layers. To investigate the vertical distribution of currents, overpotentials, and irreversible charge losses in a porous graphite electrode in situ, a multi-layered working electrode (MWE) was developed as the experimental analogue of a TLM. In this MWE, each layer is in ionic contact but electrically insulated from the other layers by a porous separator. It was found that the negative graphite electrodes get lithiated and delithiated stage-by-stage and layer-by-layer. Several mass-transport- as well as non-mass-transport-limited processes could be identified. Local current densities can reach double the average, especially on the outermost layer at the beginning of each intercalation stage. Furthermore, graphite particles close to the counter electrode act as "electrochemical sieve" reducing the impurities present in the electrolyte such as water. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Skew-Normal Mixture Regression Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Min; Lin, Tsung-I

2014-01-01

A challenge associated with traditional mixture regression models (MRMs), which rest on the assumption of normally distributed errors, is determining the number of unobserved groups. Specifically, even slight deviations from normality can lead to the detection of spurious classes. The current work aims to (a) examine how sensitive the commonly…

Predicting Potential Changes in Suitable Habitat and Distribution by 2100 for Tree Species of the Eastern United States

Treesearch

Louis R Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

2005-01-01

We predict current distribution and abundance for tree species present in eastern North America, and subsequently estimate potential suitable habitat for those species under a changed climate with 2 x CO2. We used a series of statistical models (i.e., Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Bagging Trees (...

OASIS: a data and software distribution service for Open Science Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bockelman, B.; Caballero Bejar, J.; De Stefano, J.; Hover, J.; Quick, R.; Teige, S.

2014-06-01

The Open Science Grid encourages the concept of software portability: a user's scientific application should be able to run at as many sites as possible. It is necessary to provide a mechanism for OSG Virtual Organizations to install software at sites. Since its initial release, the OSG Compute Element has provided an application software installation directory to Virtual Organizations, where they can create their own sub-directory, install software into that sub-directory, and have the directory shared on the worker nodes at that site. The current model has shortcomings with regard to permissions, policies, versioning, and the lack of a unified, collective procedure or toolset for deploying software across all sites. Therefore, a new mechanism for data and software distributing is desirable. The architecture for the OSG Application Software Installation Service (OASIS) is a server-client model: the software and data are installed only once in a single place, and are automatically distributed to all client sites simultaneously. Central file distribution offers other advantages, including server-side authentication and authorization, activity records, quota management, data validation and inspection, and well-defined versioning and deletion policies. The architecture, as well as a complete analysis of the current implementation, will be described in this paper.

Impacts of climate change on current methodologies for flood risk analysis: Watershed-scale analyses using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, P.; Griffis, V. W.; LaFond, K.

2013-12-01

A changing climate brings about new challenges for flood risk analysis and water resources planning and management. Current methods for estimating flood risk in the US involve fitting the Pearson Type III (P3) probability distribution to the logarithms of the annual maximum flood (AMF) series using the method of moments. These methods are employed under the premise of stationarity, which assumes that the fitted distribution is time invariant and variables affecting stream flow such as climate do not fluctuate. However, climate change would bring about shifts in meteorological forcings which can alter the summary statistics (mean, variance, skew) of flood series used for P3 parameter estimation, resulting in erroneous flood risk projections. To ascertain the degree to which future risk may be misrepresented by current techniques, we use climate scenarios generated from global climate models (GCMs) as input to a hydrological model to explore how relative changes to current climate affect flood response for watersheds in the northeastern United States. The watersheds were calibrated and run on a daily time step using the continuous, semi-distributed, process based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), RMSE to Standard Deviation ratio (RSR) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) were all used to assess model performance. Eight climate scenarios were chosen from GCM output based on relative precipitation and temperature changes from the current climate of the watershed and then further bias-corrected. Four of the scenarios were selected to represent warm-wet, warm-dry, cool-wet and cool-dry future climates, and the other four were chosen to represent more extreme, albeit possible, changes in precipitation and temperature. We quantify changes in response by comparing the differences in total mass balance and summary statistics of the logarithms of the AMF series from historical baseline values. We then compare forecasts of flood quantiles from fitting a P3 distribution to the logs of historical AMF data to that of generated AMF series.

Understanding re-distribution of road deposited particle-bound pollutants using a Bayesian Network (BN) approach.

PubMed

Liu, An; Wijesiri, Buddhi; Hong, Nian; Zhu, Panfeng; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-05-08

Road deposited pollutants (build-up) are continuously re-distributed by external factors such as traffic and wind turbulence, influencing stormwater runoff quality. However, current stormwater quality modelling approaches do not account for the re-distribution of pollutants. This undermines the accuracy of stormwater quality predictions, constraining the design of effective stormwater treatment measures. This study, using over 1000 data points, developed a Bayesian Network modelling approach to investigate the re-distribution of pollutant build-up on urban road surfaces. BTEX, which are a group of highly toxic pollutants, was the case study pollutants. Build-up sampling was undertaken in Shenzhen, China, using a dry and wet vacuuming method. The research outcomes confirmed that the vehicle type and particle size significantly influence the re-distribution of particle-bound BTEX. Compared to heavy-duty traffic in commercial areas, light-duty traffic dominates the re-distribution of particles of all size ranges. In industrial areas, heavy-duty traffic re-distributes particles >75 μm, and light-duty traffic re-distributes particles <75 μm. In residential areas, light-duty traffic re-distributes particles >300 μm and <75 μm and heavy-duty traffic re-distributes particles in the 300-150 μm range. The study results provide important insights to improve stormwater quality modelling and the interpretation of modelling outcomes, contributing to safeguard the urban water environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Locating object knowledge in the brain: comment on Bowers's (2009) attempt to revive the grandmother cell hypothesis.

PubMed

Plaut, David C; McClelland, James L

2010-01-01

According to Bowers, the finding that there are neurons with highly selective responses to familiar stimuli supports theories positing localist representations over approaches positing the type of distributed representations typically found in parallel distributed processing (PDP) models. However, his conclusions derive from an overly narrow view of the range of possible distributed representations and of the role that PDP models can play in exploring their properties. Although it is true that current distributed theories face challenges in accounting for both neural and behavioral data, the proposed localist account--to the extent that it is articulated at all--runs into more fundamental difficulties. Central to these difficulties is the problem of specifying the set of entities a localist unit represents.

A nowcast model for tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Ralph T.; Smith, Richard E.

1998-01-01

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) installed Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS) in San Francisco Bay, California to provide observations of tides, tidal currents, and meteorological conditions. PORTS data are used for optimizing vessel operations, increasing margin of safety for navigation, and guiding hazardous material spill prevention and response. Because tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay are extremely complex, limited real-time observations are insufficient to provide spatial resolution for variations of tides and tidal currents. To fill the information gaps, a highresolution, robust, semi-implicit, finite-difference nowcast numerical model has been implemented for San Francisco Bay. The model grid and water depths are defined on coordinates based on Mercator projection so the model outputs can be directly superimposed on navigation charts. A data assimilation algorithm has been established to derive the boundary conditions for model simulations. The nowcast model is executed every hour continuously for tides and tidal currents starting from 24 hours before the present time (now) covering a total of 48 hours simulation. Forty-eight hours of nowcast model results are available to the public at all times through the World Wide Web (WWW). Users can view and download the nowcast model results for tides and tidal current distributions in San Francisco Bay for their specific applications and for further analysis.

A smooth mixture of Tobits model for healthcare expenditure.

PubMed

Keane, Michael; Stavrunova, Olena

2011-09-01

This paper develops a smooth mixture of Tobits (SMTobit) model for healthcare expenditure. The model is a generalization of the smoothly mixing regressions framework of Geweke and Keane (J Econometrics 2007; 138: 257-290) to the case of a Tobit-type limited dependent variable. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation is developed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model is applied to the US Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data on total medical expenditure. The results suggest that the model can capture the overall shape of the expenditure distribution very well, and also provide a good fit to a number of characteristics of the conditional (on covariates) distribution of expenditure, such as the conditional mean, variance and probability of extreme outcomes, as well as the 50th, 90th, and 95th, percentiles. We find that healthier individuals face an expenditure distribution with lower mean, variance and probability of extreme outcomes, compared with their counterparts in a worse state of health. Males have an expenditure distribution with higher mean, variance and probability of an extreme outcome, compared with their female counterparts. The results also suggest that heart and cardiovascular diseases affect the expenditure of males more than that of females. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coxen, Christopher L.; Frey, Jennifer K.; Carleton, Scott A.; Collins, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

Modeling the superstorm in November 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Moore, Thomas E.; Slinker, Steve P.; Fedder, Joel A.; Delcourt, Dominique C.; Nosé, Masahito; Chen, Sheng-Hsien

2011-01-01

The superstorm on 20-21 November 2003 was the largest geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 23 as measured by Dst, which attained a minimum value of -422 nT. We have simulated this storm to understand how particles originating from the solar wind and ionosphere get access to the magnetosphere and how the subsequent transport and energization processes contribute to the buildup of the ring current. The global electromagnetic configuration and the solar wind H+ distribution are specified by the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) magnetohydrodynamics model. The outflow of H+ and O+ ions from the ionosphere are also considered. Their trajectories in the magnetosphere are followed by a test-particle code. The particle distributions at the inner plasma sheet established by the LFM model and test-particle calculations are then used as boundary conditions for a ring current model. Our simulations reproduce the rapid decrease of Dst during the storm main phase and the fast initial phase of recovery. Shielding in the inner magnetosphere is established at early main phase. This shielding field lasts several hours and then breaks down at late main phase. At the peak of the storm, strong penetration of ions earthward to L shell of 1.5 is revealed in the simulation. It is surprising that O+ is significant but not the dominant species in the ring current in our calculation for this major storm. It is very likely that substorm effects are not well represented in the models and O+ energization is underestimated. Ring current simulation with O+ energy density at the boundary set comparable to Geotail observations produces excellent agreement with the observed symH. As expected in superstorms, ring current O+ is the dominant species over H+ during the main to midrecovery phase of the storm.

Decay of equatorial ring current ions and associated aeronomical consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, M.-C.; Kozyra, J. U.; Nagy, A. F.; Rasmussen, C. E.; Khazanov, G. V.

1993-01-01

The decay of the major ion species which constitute the ring current is studied by solving the time evolution of their distribution functions during the recovery phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm. In this work, only equatorially mirroring particles are considered. Particles are assumed to move subject to E x B and gradient drifts. They also experience loses along their drift paths. Two loss mechanisms are considered: charge exchange with neutral hydrogen atoms and Coulomb collisions with thermal plasma in the plasmasphere. Thermal plasma densities are calculated with a plasmaspheric model employing a time-dependent convection electric field model. The drift-loss model successfully reproduces a number of important and observable features in the distribution function. Charge exchange is found to be the major loss mechanism for the ring current ions; however the important effects of Coulomb collisions on both the ring current and thermal populations are also presented. The model predicts the formation of a low-energy (less than 500 eV) ion population as a result of energy degradation caused by Coulomb collision of the ring current ions with the plasmaspheric electrons; this population may be one source of the low-energy ions observed during active and quiet periods in the inner magnetosphere. The energy transferred to plasmaspheric electrons through Coulomb collisions with ring current ions is believed to be the energy source for the electron temperature enhancement and the associated 6300 A (stable auroral red (SAR) arc) emission in the subauroral region. The calculated energy deposition rate is sufficient to produce a subauroral electron temperature enhancement and SAR arc emissions that are consistent with observations of these quantities during moderate magnetic activity levels.

Regional Extinctions and Quaternary Shifts in the Geographic Range of Lestodelphys halli, the Southernmost Living Marsupial: Clues for Its Conservation

PubMed Central

Formoso, Anahí E.; Martin, Gabriel M.; Teta, Pablo; Carbajo, Aníbal E.; Sauthier, Daniel E. Udrizar; Pardiñas, Ulyses F. J.

2015-01-01

The Patagonian opossum (Lestodelphys halli), the southernmost living marsupial, inhabits dry and open environments, mainly in the Patagonian steppe (between ~32°S and ~49°S). Its rich fossil record shows its occurrence further north in Central Argentina during the Quaternary. The paleoenvironmental meaning of the past distribution of L. halli has been mostly addressed in a subjective framework without an explicit connection with the climatic “space” currently occupied by this animal. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of this species and the changes occurred in its geographic range during late Pleistocene-Holocene times and linked the results obtained with conservation issues. To this end, we generated three potential distribution models with fossil records and three with current ones, using MaxEnt software. These models showed a decrease in the suitable habitat conditions for the species, highlighting a range shift from Central-Eastern to South-Western Argentina. Our results support that the presence of L. halli in the Pampean region during the Pleistocene-Holocene can be related to precipitation and temperature variables and that its current presence in Patagonia is more related to temperature and dominant soils. The models obtained suggest that the species has been experiencing a reduction in its geographic range since the middle Holocene, a process that is in accordance with a general increase in moisture and temperature in Central Argentina. Considering the findings of our work and the future scenario of global warming projected for Patagonia, we might expect a harsh impact on the distribution range of this opossum in the near future. PMID:26203650

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Numerical study of the current sheet and PSBL in a magnetotail model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doxas, I.; Horton, W.; Sandusky, K.; Tajima, T.; Steinolfson, R.

1989-01-01

The current sheet and plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) in a magnetotail model are discussed. A test particle code is used to study the response of ensembles of particles to a two-dimensional, time-dependent model of the geomagnetic tail, and test the proposition (Coroniti, 1985a, b; Buchner and Zelenyi, 1986; Chen and Palmadesso, 1986; Martin, 1986) that the stochasticity of the particle orbits in these fields is an important part of the physical mechanism for magnetospheric substorms. The realistic results obtained for the fluid moments of the particle distribution with this simple model, and their insensitivity to initial conditions, is consistent with this hypothesis.

The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T R

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.

The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T. R.

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future. PMID:23874787

Adding Biotic Interactions into Paleodistribution Models: A Host-Cleptoparasite Complex of Neotropical Orchid Bees

PubMed Central

Silva, Daniel Paiva; Varela, Sara; Nemésio, André; De Marco, Paulo

2015-01-01

Orchid bees compose an exclusive Neotropical pollinators group, with bright body coloration. Several of those species build their own nests, while others are reported as nest cleptoparasites. Here, the objective was to evaluate whether the inclusion of a strong biotic interaction, such as the presence of a host species, improved the ability of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the geographic range of the cleptoparasite species. The target species were Aglae caerulea and its host species Eulaema nigrita. Additionally, since A. caerulea is more frequently found in the Amazon rather than the Cerrado areas, a secondary objective was to evaluate whether this species is increasing or decreasing its distribution given South American past and current climatic conditions. SDMs methods (Maxent and Bioclim), in addition with current and past South American climatic conditions, as well as the occurrences for A. caerulea and E. nigrita were used to generate the distribution models. The distribution of A. caerulea was generated with and without the inclusion of the distribution of E. nigrita as a predictor variable. The results indicate A. caerulea was barely affected by past climatic conditions and the populations from the Cerrado savanna could be at least 21,000 years old (the last glacial maximum), as well as the Amazonian ones. On the other hand, in this study, the inclusion of the host-cleptoparasite interaction complex did not statistically improve the quality of the produced models, which means that the geographic range of this cleptoparasite species is mainly constrained by climate and not by the presence of the host species. Nonetheless, this could also be caused by unknown complexes of other Euglossini hosts with A. caerulea, which still are still needed to be described by science. PMID:26069956

Pleistocene refugia and genetic diversity patterns in West Africa: Insights from the liana Chasmanthera dependens (Menispermaceae)

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Marco; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Paule, Juraj

2017-01-01

Processes shaping the African Guineo-Congolian rain forest, especially in the West African part, are not well understood. Recent molecular studies, based mainly on forest tree species, confirmed the previously proposed division of the western African Guineo-Congolian rain forest into Upper Guinea (UG) and Lower Guinea (LG) separated by the Dahomey Gap (DG). Here we studied nine populations in the area of the DG and the borders of LG and UG of the widespread liana species, Chasmanthera dependens (Menispermaceae) by amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), a chloroplast DNA sequence marker, and modelled the distribution based on current as well as paleoclimatic data (Holocene Climate Optimum, ca. 6 kyr BP and Last Glacial Maximum, ca. 22 kyr BP). Current population genetic structure and geographical pattern of cpDNA was related to present as well as historical modelled distributions. Results from this study show that past historical factors played an important role in shaping the distribution of C. dependens across West Africa. The Cameroon Volcanic Line seems to represent a barrier for gene flow in the present as well as in the past. Distribution modelling proposed refugia in the Dahomey Gap, supported also by higher genetic diversity. This is in contrast with the phylogeographic patterns observed in several rainforest tree species and could be explained by either diverging or more relaxed ecological requirements of this liana species. PMID:28301470

The innovative concept of three-dimensional hybrid receptor modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stojić, A.; Stanišić Stojić, S.

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to improve the current understanding of air pollution transport processes at regional and long-range scale. For this purpose, three-dimensional (3D) potential source contribution function and concentration weighted trajectory models, as well as new hybrid receptor model, concentration weighted boundary layer (CWBL), which uses a two-dimensional grid and a planetary boundary layer height as a frame of reference, are presented. The refined approach to hybrid receptor modeling has two advantages. At first, it considers whether each trajectory endpoint meets the inclusion criteria based on planetary boundary layer height, which is expected to provide a more realistic representation of the spatial distribution of emission sources and pollutant transport pathways. Secondly, it includes pollutant time series preprocessing to make hybrid receptor models more applicable for suburban and urban locations. The 3D hybrid receptor models presented herein are designed to identify altitude distribution of potential sources, whereas CWBL can be used for analyzing the vertical distribution of pollutant concentrations along the transport pathway.

Vibrational kinetics in CO electric discharge lasers - Modeling and experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanton, A. C.; Hanson, R. K.; Mitchner, M.

1980-01-01

A model of CO laser vibrational kinetics is developed, and predicted vibrational distributions are compared with measurements. The experimental distributions were obtained at various flow locations in a transverse CW discharge in supersonic (M = 3) flow. Good qualitative agreement is obtained in the comparisons, including the prediction of a total inversion at low discharge current densities. The major area of discrepancy is an observed loss in vibrational energy downstream of the discharge which is not predicted by the model. This discrepancy may be due to three-dimensional effects in the experiment which are not included in the model. Possible kinetic effects which may contribute to vibrational energy loss are also examined.

Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.

The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity aremore » capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.« less