Extreme Weather Events and Interconnected Infrastructures: Toward More Comprehensive Climate Change Planning [Meeting challenges in understanding impacts of extreme weather events on connected infrastructures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Allen, Melissa R.

The President s Climate Change Action Plan calls for the development of better science, data, and tools for climate preparedness. Many of the current questions about preparedness for extreme weather events in coming decades are, however, difficult to answer with assets that have been developed by climate science to answer longer-term questions about climate change. Capacities for projecting exposures to climate-related extreme events, along with their implications for interconnected infrastructures, are now emerging.

Extreme Weather Events and Interconnected Infrastructures: Toward More Comprehensive Climate Change Planning [Meeting challenges in understanding impacts of extreme weather events on connected infrastructures

DOE PAGES

Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Allen, Melissa R.

2015-06-23

The President s Climate Change Action Plan calls for the development of better science, data, and tools for climate preparedness. Many of the current questions about preparedness for extreme weather events in coming decades are, however, difficult to answer with assets that have been developed by climate science to answer longer-term questions about climate change. Capacities for projecting exposures to climate-related extreme events, along with their implications for interconnected infrastructures, are now emerging.

A Multi-mission Event-Driven Component-Based System for Support of Flight Software Development, ATLO, and Operations first used by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dehghani, Navid; Tankenson, Michael

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the architectural description of the Mission Data Processing and Control System (MPCS). MPCS is an event-driven, multi-mission ground data processing components providing uplink, downlink, and data management capabilities which will support the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) project as its first target mission. MPCS is designed with these factors (1) Enabling plug and play architecture (2) MPCS has strong inheritance from GDS components that have been developed for other Flight Projects (MER, MRO, DAWN, MSAP), and are currently being used in operations and ATLO, and (3) MPCS components are Java-based, platform independent, and are designed to consume and produce XML-formatted data

Using EPA Tools and Data Services to Inform Changes to Design Storm Definitions for Wastewater Utilities based on Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.

2014-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.

Updated Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves Under Different Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of the existing and future infrastructures. Here we employ historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on climatic model projections. This presentation summarizes the projected changes in statistics of extremes. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, extreme precipitation events in some urban areas can be 20% more severe in the future, even when projected annual mean precipitation is expected to remain similar to the ground-based climatology.

Improving Fleet and Industrial Supply Center, Sigonella, Italy: Detachment Bahrain’s Ship Maintenance Contracts in Southwest Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-16

Project Sponsor: CAPT Chris Ray Black/Green Belt: CDR Mike Ryan Business Impact ($) KAIZEN / Rapid Improvement Event The expected impacts of this...Availability Contracts Project Methodology: DMAIC DFSS Kaizen Project Plan—list planned dates for each DMAIC phase Kaizen start and end dates...Initial Plan of Action for Kaizen Week 1) List and quantify elements that make the Big X metrics; 2) Capture the current competition categories into which

Single-Event Effects in Silicon Carbide Power Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Casey, Megan C.; LaBel, Kenneth A.; Ikpe, Stanley; Topper, Alyson D.; Wilcox, Edward P.; Kim, Hak; Phan, Anthony M.

2015-01-01

This report summarizes the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Program Silicon Carbide Power Device Subtask efforts in FY15. Benefits of SiC are described and example NASA Programs and Projects desiring this technology are given. The current status of the radiation tolerance of silicon carbide power devices is given and paths forward in the effort to develop heavy-ion single-event effect hardened devices indicated.

Event-scale relationships between surface velocity, temperature and chlorophyll in the coastal ocean, as seen by satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strub, P. Ted

1991-01-01

The overall goal of this project was to increase our understanding of processes which determine the temporally varying distributions of surface chlorophyll pigment concentration and surface temperature in the California Current System (CCS) on the time-scale of 'events', i.e., several days to several weeks. We also proposed to investigate seasonal and regional differences in these events. Additionally, we proposed to evaluate methods of estimating surface velocities and horizontal transport of pigment and heat from sequences of AVHRR and CZCS images. The four specific objectives stated in the original proposal were to: (1) test surface current estimates made from sequences of both SST and color images using variations of the statistical method of Emery et al. (1986) and estimate the uncertainties in these satellite-derived surface currents; (2) characterize the spatial and temporal relationships of chlorophyll and temperature in rapidly evolving features for which adequate imagery exist and evaluate the contribution of these events to monthly and seasonal averages; (3) use the methods tested in (1) to determine the nature of the velocity fields in the CCS; and (4) compare the currents, temperature, and currents in different seasons and in different geographic regions.

Voyages...voyages.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saraceni, Luisa; And Others

1990-01-01

Four teachers from Norway, Italy, and Hungary have found ways to actively prepare their students for overseas exchanges, using student correspondence, discussion of current events, exercises in formulating questions, and student language skill development projects to elevate the visit above superficial tourism. (MSE)

Preliminary Report on Mission Design and Operations for Critical Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayden, Sandra C.; Tumer, Irem

2005-01-01

Mission-critical events are defined in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory s Flight Project Practices as those sequences of events which must succeed in order to attain mission goals. These are dependent on the particular operational concept and design reference mission, and are especially important when committing to irreversible events. Critical events include main engine cutoff (MECO) after launch; engine cutoff or parachute deployment on entry, descent, and landing (EDL); orbital insertion; separation of payload from vehicle or separation of booster segments; maintenance of pointing accuracy for power and communication; and deployment of solar arrays and communication antennas. The purpose of this paper is to report on the current practices in handling mission-critical events in design and operations at major NASA spaceflight centers. The scope of this report includes NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), with staff at each center consulted on their current practices, processes, and procedures.

Spatial Offsets in Flare-CME Current Sheets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raymond, John C.; Giordano, Silvio; Ciaravella, Angela, E-mail: jraymond@cfa.harvard.edu

Magnetic reconnection plays an integral part in nearly all models of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The reconnection heats and accelerates the plasma, produces energetic electrons and ions, and changes the magnetic topology to form magnetic flux ropes and to allow CMEs to escape. Structures that appear between flare loops and CME cores in optical, UV, EUV, and X-ray observations have been identified as current sheets and have been interpreted in terms of the nature of the reconnection process and the energetics of the events. Many of these studies have used UV spectral observations of high temperature emissionmore » features in the [Fe xviii] and Si xii lines. In this paper, we discuss several surprising cases in which the [Fe xviii] and Si xii emission peaks are spatially offset from each other. We discuss interpretations based on asymmetric reconnection, on a thin reconnection region within a broader streamer-like structure, and on projection effects. Some events seem to be easily interpreted as the projection of a sheet that is extended along the line of sight that is viewed an angle, but a physical interpretation in terms of asymmetric reconnection is also plausible. Other events favor an interpretation as a thin current sheet embedded in a streamer-like structure.« less

Simulations of Charged-Current Supernova νe Events in a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, Steven; Grant, Christopher; Pantic, Emilija; Svoboda, Robert

2016-03-01

Although it is still in its infancy, the study of supernova neutrinos has proven to be a fertile topic for fundamental science. A mere two dozen events recorded from supernova 1987A, the only supernova neutrino source observed so far, have led to numerous publications on a wide variety of topics. This bountiful scientific harvest has prompted the neutrino physics community to prepare to make more detailed observations of the neutrinos that will be produced in the next nearby supernova. Because of their unique νe sensitivity, liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments such as DUNE (Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment) have the potential to make valuable contributions to this detection effort. To better understand the expected SN νe signal in a LArTPC, we have developed a Monte Carlo event generator called MARLEY (Model of Argon Reaction Low-Energy Yields) for charged-current νe reactions on argon. By combining MARLEY with LArSoft, a LArTPC simulation package, we have obtained the most detailed predictions currently available for the response of a LArTPC to supernova νe. We will discuss the implications of these results for the design and operation of LArTPCs sensitive to SN neutrinos.

Blogging the Stories of Citizen Science to Inspire Participation, Build Community, and Increase Public Understanding of Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, L. S.; Cavalier, D.; Ohab, J.; Taylor, L.

2011-12-01

Sharing citizen science projects and the experiences that people have with science through blogs provides avenues to foster public understanding of science and showcase ways that people can get involved. Blogs, combined with other social media such as Twitter and Facebook, make science social - adding a human element to the process of scientific discovery. We have been sharing stories of citizen science through two blogs. Intended for a general public audience. The Science for Citizens blog (http://scienceforcitizens.net/blog/) was started in 2010 and links blog posts to a growing network of citizen science projects. Citizen Science Buzz (http://www.talkingscience.org/category/citizen-science-buzz/) was started in 2011 on the TalkingScience blog network, a project of the Science Friday Initiative. Both blogs aim to increase the exposure of citizen science projects, inspire people to do citizen science, and connect people with projects that interest them. The timeliness of blogs also provides a good platform for sharing information about one-time citizen science events and short-lived projects. Utilizing Facebook and Twitter increases traffic to blog posts about citizen science events in a timely manner and can help build community around events. Additionally, the timeliness of blogs provides the opportunity to connect citizen science and current events, helping to form geoscience teachable moments out of recent news. For example, highlighting citizen scientists near Birmingham, Alabama who collect weather data after the April 2011 tornado outbreak ravaged that area offers a positive note on how people are volunteering their time to help us all better understand the planet despite a catastrophic event.

Rebuilding the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre (ISC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L. N.; Lieser, K.; Harris, J.; Shumba, B.; Verney, R.; Storchak, D. A.; Di Giacomo, D.; Delahaye, E.

2017-12-01

Currently, the published International Seismological Centre (ISC) locations represent a mixture of algorithms (Reviser, ISCloc), velocity models (Jeffreys-Bullen, ak135), and phases (P-wave only, P&S, and finally all available ak135 phases starting in 2009). Thus, the primary goal of the Rebuild Project is to modernize the ISC bulletin by homogenizing our methods, procedures, and quality standards across more than four decades (1964-2010) of prior relocations at the ISC. We are also incorporating many new historical datasets from both temporary and permanent networks which were not available to us at the time of first relocation. Additionally, event magnitudes are determined in a more robust way - no longer will magnitudes be calculated using only one or two station readings, but instead recomputed with an alpha-trimmed median and requiring a minimum of three station readings. Employing the newest version of the ISC locator (ISCloc, Bondar & Storchak, 2011), all events in the bulletin are relocated using the ak135 global velocity model using all available phases. Then, using an internally developed and tested set of event quality criteria, our team of analysts works carefully with each event that has been flagged as requiring additional review. After each data month has been processed, an updated set of quality checks are run, and any further issues are consequently resolved. Our current predictions indicate that more than 150,000 flagged events will be reviewed by our analysts over the forty-six data-year period of the project. Once the Rebuild Project is finished, the ISC Bulletin will be the most complete and modern database of global seismicity freely available anywhere in the world. At present, we have finished work on sixteen years of historical data (1964-1979), and we show our preliminary results here.

Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

PubMed

Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

2017-04-01

To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Operation Sun Beam, Shots Little Feller I, II and Johnie Boy. Project officers report. Project 6. 6. Electromagnetic measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henderson, W.D.; Livingston, P.M.; Rutter, R.L.

Of considerable interest from both a physical and practical viewpoint is the coupling of electromagnetic energy from a nuclear explosion into various electrical systems in the vicinity of the burst. A series of electromagnetic measurements were made on Shots Little Feller I, Little Feller II, and Johnie Boy. It is clear from the records that radiation shielding must be given closer consideration in future tests. Due to equipment failure and radiation inactivation, only the Johnie Boy dynamic current measurement and the passive peak current indicators on all three events are interpretable.

Brainhack: a collaborative workshop for the open neuroscience community.

PubMed

Cameron Craddock, R; S Margulies, Daniel; Bellec, Pierre; Nolan Nichols, B; Alcauter, Sarael; A Barrios, Fernando; Burnod, Yves; J Cannistraci, Christopher; Cohen-Adad, Julien; De Leener, Benjamin; Dery, Sebastien; Downar, Jonathan; Dunlop, Katharine; R Franco, Alexandre; Seligman Froehlich, Caroline; J Gerber, Andrew; S Ghosh, Satrajit; J Grabowski, Thomas; Hill, Sean; Sólon Heinsfeld, Anibal; Matthew Hutchison, R; Kundu, Prantik; R Laird, Angela; Liew, Sook-Lei; J Lurie, Daniel; G McLaren, Donald; Meneguzzi, Felipe; Mennes, Maarten; Mesmoudi, Salma; O'Connor, David; H Pasaye, Erick; Peltier, Scott; Poline, Jean-Baptiste; Prasad, Gautam; Fraga Pereira, Ramon; Quirion, Pierre-Olivier; Rokem, Ariel; S Saad, Ziad; Shi, Yonggang; C Strother, Stephen; Toro, Roberto; Q Uddin, Lucina; D Van Horn, John; W Van Meter, John; C Welsh, Robert; Xu, Ting

2016-01-01

Brainhack events offer a novel workshop format with participant-generated content that caters to the rapidly growing open neuroscience community. Including components from hackathons and unconferences, as well as parallel educational sessions, Brainhack fosters novel collaborations around the interests of its attendees. Here we provide an overview of its structure, past events, and example projects. Additionally, we outline current innovations such as regional events and post-conference publications. Through introducing Brainhack to the wider neuroscience community, we hope to provide a unique conference format that promotes the features of collaborative, open science.

Observations of infragravity motions for reef fringed islands and atolls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.; Ford, M.

2012-12-01

The frequency of flooding events that affect low lying islands and atolls in the Pacific is expected to increase under current sea level rise projections. Infragravity (IG) motions, with periods ranging from approximately 25 to 400 seconds, are an important component of wave driven flooding events for reef fringed islands and atolls. The IG variability during wave events is analyzed and interpreted dynamically from pressure and current observations at four cross-reef transects in the North Pacific Ocean that include sites in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Guam. The IG motions are shown to depend upon the spectral properties of the incident wave forcing and reef flat characteristics that include reef flat length (ranging from 100m to 450m at the four sites) and total water level due to setup and tides. A small inundation event at one of the sites is shown to occur due to large shoreline infragravity energy.

The history of the early years of metamaterials in USA and UK defense agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derov, John S.; Hammond, Richard; Youngs, Ian J.

2017-08-01

This article discusses the historical events that occurred in the early years of metamaterials leading to the current development of metamaterials in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Department of Defense, and Ministry of Defence.

On Line in New York.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egan, David

1994-01-01

The International Education and Resource Network (I*EARN) creates an international classroom in which students work together on global education projects and literary and current events publications. Teacher David Egan describes some of the many activities available to students on the network. (LZ/Author)

Three-dimensional imaging for large LArTPCs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, X.; Zhang, C.; Viren, B.; Diwan, M.

2018-05-01

High-performance event reconstruction is critical for current and future massive liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) to realize their full scientific potential. LArTPCs with readout using wire planes provide a limited number of 2D projections. In general, without a pixel-type readout it is challenging to achieve unambiguous 3D event reconstruction. As a remedy, we present a novel 3D imaging method, Wire-Cell, which incorporates the charge and sparsity information in addition to the time and geometry through simple and robust mathematics. The resulting 3D image of ionization density provides an excellent starting point for further reconstruction and enables the true power of 3D tracking calorimetry in LArTPCs.

Event visualisation in ALICE - current status and strategy for Run 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedziela, Jeremi; von Haller, Barthélémy

2017-10-01

A Large Ion Collider Experiment (ALICE) is one of the four big experiments running at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which focuses on the study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP) being produced in heavy-ion collisions. The ALICE Event Visualisation Environment (AliEve) is a tool providing an interactive 3D model of the detector’s geometry and a graphical representation of the data. Together with the online reconstruction module, it provides important quality monitoring of the recorded data. As a consequence it has been used in the ALICE Run Control Centre during all stages of Run 2. Static screenshots from the online visualisation are published on the public website - ALICE LIVE. Dedicated converters have been developed to provide geometry and data for external projects. An example of such project is the Total Event Display (TEV) - a visualisation tool recently developed by the CERN Media Lab based on the Unity game engine. It can be easily deployed on any platform, including web and mobile platforms. Another external project is More Than ALICE - an augmented reality application for visitors, overlaying detector descriptions and event visualisations on the camera’s picture. For the future Run 3 both AliEve and TEV will be adapted to fit the ALICE O2 project. Several changes are required due to the new data formats, especially so-called Compressed Time Frames.

Global risk of deadly heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, Camilo; Dousset, Bénédicte; Caldwell, Iain R.; Powell, Farrah E.; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Bielecki, Coral R.; Counsell, Chelsie W. W.; Dietrich, Bonnie S.; Johnston, Emily T.; Louis, Leo V.; Lucas, Matthew P.; McKenzie, Marie M.; Shea, Alessandra G.; Tseng, Han; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Leon, Lisa R.; Hawkins, Ed; Trauernicht, Clay

2017-07-01

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published between 1980 and 2014, and found 783 cases of excess human mortality associated with heat from 164 cities in 36 countries. Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly. Around 30% of the world's population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to ~48% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and ~74% under a scenario of growing emissions. An increasing threat to human life from excess heat now seems almost inevitable, but will be greatly aggravated if greenhouse gases are not considerably reduced.

Launch Support Video Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OFarrell, Zachary L.

2013-01-01

The goal of this project is to create a website that displays video, countdown clock, and event times to customers during launches, without needing to be connected to the internal operations network. The requirements of this project are to also minimize the delay in the clock and events to be less than two seconds. The two parts of this are the webpage, which will display the data and videos to the user, and a server to send clock and event data to the webpage. The webpage is written in HTML with CSS and JavaScript. The JavaScript is responsible for connecting to the server, receiving new clock data, and updating the webpage. JavaScript is used for this because it can send custom HTTP requests from the webpage, and provides the ability to update parts of the webpage without having to refresh the entire page. The server application will act as a relay between the operations network, and the open internet. On the operations network side, the application receives multicast packets that contain countdown clock and events data. It will then parse the data into current countdown times and events, and create a packet with that information that can be sent to webpages. The other part will accept HTTP requests from the webpage, and respond to them with current data. The server is written in C# with some C++ files used to define the structure of data packets. The videos for the webpage will be shown in an embedded player from UStream.

Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Jared, Alissa; Mahat, Vinod

The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitationmore » intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.« less

Current status of SK-Gd project and EGADS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chenyuan; Super-Kamiokande Collaboration

2016-05-01

Supernova Relic Neutrino (SRN) has not been observed yet because of its low event rate and high background. By adding gadolinium into water Cherenkov detector, inverse beta decay will have two signals, the prompt one is positron signal and the delayed one is a ~8 MeV gamma cascade from neutron capture on gadolinium. By this way, background for SRN can be largely reduced by detecting prompt and delayed signals coincidently, and Super-K will also have the ability to distinguish neutrino and anti-neutrino. SK-Gd is a R&D project proposed to dissolve gadolinium into Super-K. As a part of it, EGADS, a 200 ton water Cherenkov detector was built in Kamioka mine. Current status of SK-Gd project and the physics work being performed in EGADS will be presented here.

Eddy-Current Non-Inertial Displacement Sensing for Underwater Infrasound Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

Eddy-current non-inertial displacement sensing for underwater infrasound measurements Dimitri M. Donskoy Stevens Institute of Technology, 711 Hudson...geophysicists have an ongoing interest in exploring underwater acous- tic processes at infrasound frequencies, for example, for monitoring natural events...underwater infrasound measurements 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f

Preventable coronary heart disease events from control of cardiovascular risk factors in US adults with diabetes (projections from utilizing the UKPDS risk engine).

PubMed

Wong, Nathan D; Patao, Christopher; Malik, Shaista; Iloeje, Uchenna

2014-04-15

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) carries significant risks for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the potential US population impact of single and composite risk factor control. Among US adults with diagnosed T2DM aged≥30 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2012, we assessed CHD events preventable using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study CHD risk engine. We examined in all those not at goal the impact of statistical control of smoking, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, according to the predefined criteria setting risk factors at different levels of control representing (1) "All to Goal," (2) at "Nominal Control," or (3) at "Aggressive Control." Preventable CHD events represented the difference between the number of events estimated from the control of these risk factors versus current levels of the risk factors. Of 606 men (representing 6.2 million) and 603 women (6.3 million) with DM and no previous CHD, 1.3 million men and 0.7 million women would develop a CHD event within 10 years if left uncontrolled. Controlling all risk factors to goal was projected to prevent 35% and 45% of CHD events in men and women, respectively. Nominal risk factor control was projected to prevent 36% and 38% and aggressive control 51% and 61% of CHD events, respectively. In conclusion, a significant proportion of CHD events in adults with T2DM could be prevented from composite control of risk factors often not at goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional imaging for large LArTPCs

DOE PAGES

Qian, X.; Zhang, Chao; Viren, B.; ...

2018-05-29

High-performance event reconstruction is critical for current and future massive liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) to realize their full scientific potential. LArTPCs with readout using wire planes provide a limited number of 2D projections. In general, without a pixel- type readout it is challenging to achieve unambiguous 3D event reconstruction. As a remedy, we present a novel 3D imaging method, Wire-Cell, which incorporates the charge and sparsity information in addition to the time and geometry through simple and robust mathematics. Furthermore, the resulting 3D image of ionization density provides an excellent starting point for further reconstruction and enables themore » true power of 3D tracking calorimetry in LArTPCs.« less

Three-dimensional imaging for large LArTPCs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, X.; Zhang, Chao; Viren, B.

High-performance event reconstruction is critical for current and future massive liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) to realize their full scientific potential. LArTPCs with readout using wire planes provide a limited number of 2D projections. In general, without a pixel- type readout it is challenging to achieve unambiguous 3D event reconstruction. As a remedy, we present a novel 3D imaging method, Wire-Cell, which incorporates the charge and sparsity information in addition to the time and geometry through simple and robust mathematics. Furthermore, the resulting 3D image of ionization density provides an excellent starting point for further reconstruction and enables themore » true power of 3D tracking calorimetry in LArTPCs.« less

Quality assurance and improvement: the Pediatric Regional Anesthesia Network.

PubMed

Polaner, David M; Martin, Lynn D

2012-01-01

Quality assurance and improvement (QA/QI) is a critical activity in medicine. The use of large-scale collaborative databases is increasingly essential to obtain enough reports with which to establish standards of practice and define the incidence of complications and risk/benefit ratios for rare events. Such projects can enhance local QA/QI endeavors by enabling institutions to obtain benchmark data against which to compare their performance and can be used for prospective analyses of inter-institutional differences to determine 'best practice'. The pediatric regional anesthesia network (PRAN) is such a project. The first data cohort is currently being analyzed and offers insight into how such data can be used to detect trends in adverse events and improve care. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Building a Better Model: A Personalized Breast Cancer Risk Model Incorporating Breast Density to Stratify Risk and Improve Application of Resources

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

a GE unit and 100 images from a Hologic unit. These were reviewed during Dr. Harvey’s visit to Toronto October 2012. The ...patient underwent the standard of practice 4-view mammogram. Following this, a different technologist obtained a second craniocaudal image of the left...project and one related to a current event. Representatives from the project were present to provide information at the Charlottesville Four

Energetic Particles in the Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malandraki, Olga

2016-07-01

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are a key ingredient of Solar-Terrestrial Physics both for fundamental research and space weather applications. SEP events are the defining component of solar radiation storms, contribute to radio blackouts in polar regions and are related to many of the fastest Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) driving major geomagnetic storms. In addition to CMEs, SEPs are also related to flares. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the SEP field will be reviewed. Key issues to be covered and discussed include: the current understanding of the origin, acceleration and transport processes of SEPs at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere, lessons learned from multi-spacecraft SEP observations, statistical quantification of the comparison of solar events and SEP events of the current solar cycle 24 with previous solar cycles, causes of the solar-cycle variations in SEP fluencies and composition, theoretical work and current SEP acceleration models. Furthermore, the outstanding issues that constitute a knowledge gap in the field will be presented and discussed, as well as future directions and expected advances from the observational and modeling perspective, also in view of the unique observations provided by the upcoming Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus missions. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

PubMed Central

Barnett, A.; Dobson, A.; McElduff, P.; Salomaa, V.; Kuulasmaa, K.; Sans, S.; t for

2005-01-01

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35–64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days. PMID:15965137

Projection-based motion estimation for cardiac functional analysis with high temporal resolution: a proof-of-concept study with digital phantom experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yuki; Fung, George S. K.; Shen, Zeyang; Otake, Yoshito; Lee, Okkyun; Ciuffo, Luisa; Ashikaga, Hiroshi; Sato, Yoshinobu; Taguchi, Katsuyuki

2017-03-01

Cardiac motion (or functional) analysis has shown promise not only for non-invasive diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases but also for prediction of cardiac future events. Current imaging modalities has limitations that could degrade the accuracy of the analysis indices. In this paper, we present a projection-based motion estimation method for x-ray CT that estimates cardiac motion with high spatio-temporal resolution using projection data and a reference 3D volume image. The experiment using a synthesized digital phantom showed promising results for motion analysis.

Determination of Tsunami Warning Criteria for Current Velocity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R.; Wang, D.

2015-12-01

Present Tsunami warning issuance largely depends on an event's predicted wave height and inundation depth. Specifically, a warning is issued if the on-shore wave height is greater than 1m. This project examines whether any consideration should be given to current velocity. We apply the idea of force balance to determine theoretical minimum velocity thresholds for injuring people and damaging properties as a function of wave height. Results show that even at a water depth of less than 1m, a current velocity of 2 m/s is enough to pose a threat to humans and cause potential damage to cars and houses. Next, we employ a 1-dimensional shallow water model to simulate Tsunamis with various amplitudes and an assumed wavelength of 250km. This allows for the profiling of current velocity and wave height behavior as the Tsunamis reach shore. We compare this data against our theoretical thresholds to see if any real world scenarios would be dangerous to people and properties. We conclude that for such Tsunamis, the present warning criteria are effective at protecting people against larger events with amplitude greater than ~0.3m. However, for events with amplitude less than ~0.2m, it is possible to have waves less than 1m with current velocity high enough to endanger humans. Thus, the inclusion of current velocity data would help the present Tsunami warning criteria become more robust and efficient, especially for smaller Tsunami events.

Overview of Best Practices in Mitigating the Impact of Natural Disasters and Extreme Weather Phenomena on European Aviation - The MOWE-IT Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muehlhausen, Thorsten; Kreuz, Michael; Temme, Annette; Nokkala, Marko; Nurmi, Pertti; Perrels, Adriaan; Hyvarinen, Otto; Yuga, Ilkka; Pylkko, Pirkko; Kral, Stephan; Schaetter, Frank; Bartsch, Mariana; Wiens, Marcus; Michaelides, Silas; Tymvios, Filippos; Papadakis, Matheos; Athanasatos, Spyros

2014-05-01

The European transport system has shown various degrees of vulnerability to external shocks such as severe weather events, which have partially or, in some cases, totally shut down part of the transport system. Under climate change conditions, the identification of Best Practices within the European area and the proposal of short, medium and long term solutions in order to deal with induced disruptions are vital to upkeep the efficiency and integrity of the European transport network. The MOWE-IT (Management of weather events in the transport system) project is a continuation of the work performed in up-to-date European projects such as the EWENT, WEATHER and ECCONET projects. Its aim is to identify such existing best practices and to develop methodologies in order to assist transport operators, authorities and transport system users to mitigate the impact of natural disasters and extreme weather phenomena on transport system performance. While the MOWE-IT project covers a wide number of transportation modes such as road, rail, marine transport, aviation and inland waterways, in this current work, an overview of the project's work performed in the aviation sector in Europe is presented. The MOWE-IT project is funded by the European Union, under its 7th Framework Programme (TRANSPORT SUPPORT ACTIONS).

SkyDiscovery: Humans and Machines Working Together

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donalek, Ciro; Fang, K.; Drake, A. J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Graham, M. J.; Mahabal, A.; Williams, R.

2011-01-01

Synoptic sky surveys are now discovering tens to hundreds of transient events every clear night, and that data rate is expected to increase dramatically as we move towards the LSST. A key problem is classification of transients, which determines their scientific interest and possible follow-up. Some of the relevant information is contextual, and easily recognizable by humans looking at images, but it is very hard to encode in the data pipelines. Crowdsourcing (aka Citizen Science) provides one possible way to gather such information. SkyDiscovery.org is a website that allows experts and citizen science enthusiasts to work together and share information in a collaborative scientific discovery environment. Currently there are two projects running on the website. In the Event Classification project users help finding candidate transients through a series of questions related to the images shown. Event classification depends very much form the contextual information and humans are remarkably effective at recognizing noise in incomplete heterogeneous data and figuring out which contextual information is important. In the SNHunt project users are requested to look for new objects appearing on images of galaxies taken by the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey, in order to find all the supernovae occurring in nearby bright galaxies. Images are served alongside with other tools that can help the discovery. A multi level approach allows the complexity of the interface to be tailored to the expertise level of the user. An entry level user can just review images and validate events as being real, while a more advanced user would be able to interact with the data associated to an event. The data gathered will not be only analyzed and used directly for some specific science project, but also to train well-defined algorithms to be used in automating such data analysis in the future.

1. Air-Sea and Lateral Exchange Processes in East Indian Coastal Current off Sri Lanka 2. ASIRI: Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Waves and Instabilities (RAWI)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

second project, collaboration is sought with institutions in Seychelles and Singapore for atmospheric deployments. In all cases, the project expects to...suite of atmospheric instruments in the coasts of three IO island nations, Sri Lanka, Seychelles and Singapore to capture small-scale events pertinent...necessary for the deployments are being developed in Sri Lanka. The nature of the deployments in Seychelles and Singapore do not require additional

Applications of turbidity monitoring to forest management in California.

PubMed

Harris, Richard R; Sullivan, Kathleen; Cafferata, Peter H; Munn, John R; Faucher, Kevin M

2007-09-01

Many California streams have been adversely affected by sedimentation caused by historic and current land uses, including timber harvesting. The impacts of timber harvesting and logging transportation systems on erosion and sediment delivery can be directly measured, modeled, or inferred from water quality measurements. California regulatory agencies, researchers, and land owners have adopted turbidity monitoring to determine effects of forest management practices on suspended sediment loads and water quality at watershed, project, and site scales. Watershed-scale trends in sediment discharge and responses to current forest practices may be estimated from data collected at automated sampling stations that measure turbidity, stream flow, suspended sediment concentrations, and other water quality parameters. Future results from these studies will provide a basis for assessing the effectiveness of modern forest practice regulations in protecting water quality. At the project scale, manual sampling of water column turbidity during high stream flow events within and downstream from active timber harvest plans can identify emerging sediment sources. Remedial actions can then be taken by managers to prevent or mitigate water quality impacts. At the site scale, manual turbidity sampling during storms or high stream flow events at sites located upstream and downstream from new, upgraded, or decommissioned stream crossings has proven to be a valuable way to determine whether measures taken to prevent post-construction erosion and sediment production are effective. Turbidity monitoring at the project and site scales is therefore an important tool for adaptive management. Uncertainty regarding the effects of current forest practices must be resolved through watershed-scale experiments. In the short term, this uncertainty will stimulate increased use of project and site-scale monitoring.

IRIS DMC products help explore the Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trabant, C.; Hutko, A. R.; Bahavar, M.; Ahern, T. K.; Benson, R. B.; Casey, R.

2011-12-01

Within two hours after the great March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake the IRIS DMC started publishing automated data products through its Searchable Product Depository (SPUD), which provides quick viewing of many aspects of the data and preliminary analysis of this great earthquake. These products are part of the DMC's data product development effort intended to serve many purposes: stepping-stones for future research projects, data visualizations, data characterization, research result comparisons as well as outreach material. Our current and soon-to-be-released products that allow users to explore this and other global M>6.0 events include 1) Event Plots, which are a suite of maps, record sections, regional vespagrams and P-coda stacks 2) US Array Ground Motion Visualizations that show the vertical and horizontal global seismic wavefield sweeping across US Array including minor and major arc surface waves and their polarizations 3) back-projection movies that show the time history of short-period energy from the rupture 4) R1 source-time functions that show approximate duration and source directivity and 5) aftershock sequence maps and statistics movies based on NEIC alerts that self-update every hour in the first few days following the mainshock. Higher order information for the Tohoku event that can be inferred based on our products which will be highlighted include a rupture duration of order 150 sec (P-coda stacks, back-projections, R1 STFs) that ruptured approximately 400 km along strike primarily towards the south (back-projections, R1 STFs, aftershock animation) with a very low rupture velocity (back-projections, R1 STFs). All of our event-based products are automated and consistently produced shortly after the event so that they may serve as familiar baselines for the seismology research community. More details on these and other existing products are available at: http://www.iris.edu/dms/products/

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang

Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very widemore » range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.« less

Preliminary analysis of EUSO—TA data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenu, F.; Piotrowski, L. W.; Shin, H.; Jung, A.; Bacholle, S.; Bisconti, F.; Capel, F.; Eser, J.; Kawasaki, Y.; Kuznetsov, E.; Larsson, O.; Mackovjak, S.; Miyamoto, H.; Plebaniak, Z.; Prevot, G.; Putis, M.; Shinozaki, K.; Adams, J.; Bertaina, M.; Bobik, P.; Casolino, M.; Matthews, J. N.; Ricci, M.; Wiencke, L.; EUSO-TA Collaboration

2016-05-01

The EUSO-TA detector is a pathfinder for the JEM-EUSO project and is currently installed in Black Rock Mesa (Utah) on the site of the Telescope Array fluorescence detectors. Aim of this experiment is to validate the observation principle of JEM-EUSO on air showers measured from ground. The experiment gets data in coincidence with the TA triggers to increase the likelihood of cosmic ray detection. In this framework the collaboration is also testing the detector response with respect to several test events from lasers and LED flashers. Moreover, another aim of the project is the validation of the stability of the data acquisition chain in real sky condition and the optimization of the trigger scheme for the rejection of background. Data analysis is ongoing to identify cosmic ray events in coincidence with the TA detector. In this contribution we will show the response of the EUSO-TA detector to all the different typologies of events and we will show some preliminary results on the trigger optimization performed on such data.

ALFIL: A Crowd Simulation Serious Game for Massive Evacuation Training and Awareness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

García-García, César; Fernández-Robles, José Luis; Larios-Rosillo, Victor; Luga, Hervé

2012-01-01

This article presents the current development of a serious game for the simulation of massive evacuations. The purpose of this project is to promote self-protection through awareness of the procedures and different possible scenarios during the evacuation of a massive event. Sophisticated behaviors require massive computational power and it has…

The Fail-Safe Micro Research Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saunders, Mary Anne

A key element in a research paper writing assignment modified for students of English as a second language to assure their success is teacher control over most of the process. A chronological plan for action for the micro research project includes these steps: creating an awareness of current events and controversial issues, practicing necessary…

A Pilot Project Demonstrating that Combat Medics Can Safely Administer Parenteral Medications in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Schauer, Steven G; Cunningham, Cord W; Fisher, Andrew D; DeLorenzo, Robert A

2017-12-01

Introduction Select units in the military have improved combat medic training by integrating their functions into routine clinical care activities with measurable improvements in battlefield care. This level of integration is currently limited to special operations units. It is unknown if regular Army units and combat medics can emulate these successes. The goal of this project was to determine whether US Army combat medics can be integrated into routine emergency department (ED) clinical care, specifically medication administration. Project Design This was a quality assurance project that monitored training of combat medics to administer parenteral medications and to ensure patient safety. Combat medics were provided training that included direct supervision during medication administration. Once proficiency was demonstrated, combat medics would prepare the medications under direct supervision, followed by indirect supervision during administration. As part of the quality assurance and safety processes, combat medics were required to document all medication administrations, supervising provider, and unexpected adverse events. Additional quality assurance follow-up occurred via complete chart review by the project lead. Data During the project period, the combat medics administered the following medications: ketamine (n=13), morphine (n=8), ketorolac (n=7), fentanyl (n=5), ondansetron (n=4), and other (n=6). No adverse events or patient safety events were reported by the combat medics or discovered during the quality assurance process. In this limited case series, combat medics safely administered parenteral medications under indirect provider supervision. Future research is needed to further develop this training model for both the military and civilian setting. Schauer SG , Cunningham C W, Fisher AD , DeLorenzo RA . A pilot project demonstrating that combat medics can safely administer parenteral medications in the emergency department. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(6):679-681.

Characterizing Future El Niño Impacts to the Lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, N. I.; Miller, W. P.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.

2015-12-01

Past El Niño events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the 1982-1983 event, resulted in one of the basin's wettest years on record. Looking at past events and the current forecasts, which indicate Pacific Ocean conditions could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter, it is no wonder that many water management agencies and their customers are expecting a relief in the southwestern United States (US) drought intensity as the probability of a strong El Niño becomes more significant. Despite the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a strong El Niño is not a guarantee for wet conditions in the Colorado River basin - as can be seen from the 2002 event in which basin conditions were one of the driest on record. There is a great need to understand the range of possible conditions that could be observed under an El Niño event to better inform southwestern US water management agencies so that they may make well-guided decisions regarding their most valuable resource - the Colorado River. This study builds upon past research based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climatology and hydrology projections and the analysis performed with singular variable decomposition (SVD) to identify climate models with high correlation between historical climate/hydrology in the CRB and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Past research methods were able to identify climate models which performed well using the SVD methodology. This current project seeks to analyze the well-performing climate models and identify future El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the resultant precipitation and temperature impacts in the lower CRB. This analysis will provide an objective, ensemble based outlook for potential climate change impacts under El Niño events.The results of the study can potentially assist lower CRB water management agencies in characterizing the range of future El Niño impacts, under climate change conditions. It is expected that this information could be beneficial in understanding the range of potential El Niño impacts and their effect on drought in the southwestern US.

Locations and focal mechanisms of deep long period events beneath Aleutian Arc volcanoes using back projection methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lough, A. C.; Roman, D. C.; Haney, M. M.

2015-12-01

Deep long period (DLP) earthquakes are commonly observed in volcanic settings such as the Aleutian Arc in Alaska. DLPs are poorly understood but are thought to be associated with movements of fluids, such as magma or hydrothermal fluids, deep in the volcanic plumbing system. These events have been recognized for several decades but few studies have gone beyond their identification and location. All long period events are more difficult to identify and locate than volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes because traditional detection schemes focus on high frequency (short period) energy. In addition, DLPs present analytical challenges because they tend to be emergent and so it is difficult to accurately pick the onset of arriving body waves. We now expect to find DLPs at most volcanic centers, the challenge lies in identification and location. We aim to reduce the element of human error in location by applying back projection to better constrain the depth and horizontal position of these events. Power et al. (2004) provided the first compilation of DLP activity in the Aleutian Arc. This study focuses on the reanalysis of 162 cataloged DLPs beneath 11 volcanoes in the Aleutian arc (we expect to ultimately identify and reanalyze more DLPs). We are currently adapting the approach of Haney (2014) for volcanic tremor to use back projection over a 4D grid to determine position and origin time of DLPs. This method holds great potential in that it will allow automated, high-accuracy picking of arrival times and could reduce the number of arrival time picks necessary for traditional location schemes to well constrain event origins. Back projection can also calculate a relative focal mechanism (difficult with traditional methods due to the emergent nature of DLPs) allowing the first in depth analysis of source properties. Our event catalog (spanning over 25 years and volcanoes) is one of the longest and largest and enables us to investigate spatial and temporal variation in DLPs.

Space weather in the EU's FP7 Space Theme. Preface to the special issue on "EU-FP7 funded space weather projects"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiarini, Paola

2013-11-01

Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7) of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic "Security of space assets from space weather events" of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic "Exploitation of space science and exploration data", which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth's surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects' outcomes.

A knowledge engineering framework towards clinical support for adverse drug event prevention: the PSIP approach.

PubMed

Koutkias, Vassilis; Stalidis, George; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Lazou, Katerina; Kilintzis, Vassilis; Maglaveras, Nicos

2009-01-01

Adverse Drug Events (ADEs) are currently considered as a major public health issue, endangering patients' safety and causing significant healthcare costs. Several research efforts are currently concentrating on the reduction of preventable ADEs by employing Information Technology (IT) solutions, which aim to provide healthcare professionals and patients with relevant knowledge and decision support tools. In this context, we present a knowledge engineering approach towards the construction of a Knowledge-based System (KBS) regarded as the core part of a CDSS (Clinical Decision Support System) for ADE prevention, all developed in the context of the EU-funded research project PSIP (Patient Safety through Intelligent Procedures in Medication). In the current paper, we present the knowledge sources considered in PSIP and the implications they pose to knowledge engineering, the methodological approach followed, as well as the components defining the knowledge engineering framework based on relevant state-of-the-art technologies and representation formalisms.

General risks for tunnelling projects: An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siang, Lee Yong; Ghazali, Farid E. Mohamed; Zainun, Noor Yasmin; Ali, Roslinda

2017-10-01

Tunnels are indispensable when installing new infrastructure as well as when enhancing the quality of existing urban living due to their unique characteristics and potential applications. Over the past few decades, there has been a significant increase in the building of tunnels, world-wide. Tunnelling projects are complex endeavors, and risk assessment for tunnelling projects is likewise a complex process. Risk events are often interrelated. Occurrence of a technical risk usually carries cost and schedule consequences. Schedule risks typically impact cost escalation and project overhead. One must carefully consider the likelihood of a risk's occurrence and its impact in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. A project's goals, organization, and environment impacts in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. Some projects are primarily schedule driven; other projects are primarily cost or quality driven. Whether a specific risk event is perceived fundamentally as a cost risk or a schedule risk is governed by the project-specific context. Many researchers have pointed out the significance of recognition and control of the complexity, and risks of tunnelling projects. Although all general information on a project such as estimated duration, estimated cost, and stakeholders can be obtained, it is still quite difficult to accurately understand, predict and control the overall situation and development trends of the project, leading to the risks of tunnelling projects. This paper reviews all the key risks for tunnelling projects from several case studies that have been carried out by other researchers. These risks have been identified and reviewed in this paper. As a result, the current risk management plan in tunnelling projects can be enhanced by including all these reviewed risks as key information.

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Flight deck engine advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shontz, W. D.; Records, R. M.; Antonelli, D. R.

1992-01-01

The focus of this project is on alerting pilots to impending events in such a way as to provide the additional time required for the crew to make critical decisions concerning non-normal operations. The project addresses pilots' need for support in diagnosis and trend monitoring of faults as they affect decisions that must be made within the context of the current flight. Monitoring and diagnostic modules developed under the NASA Faultfinder program were restructured and enhanced using input data from an engine model and real engine fault data. Fault scenarios were prepared to support knowledge base development activities on the MONITAUR and DRAPhyS modules of Faultfinder. An analysis of the information requirements for fault management was included in each scenario. A conceptual framework was developed for systematic evaluation of the impact of context variables on pilot action alternatives as a function of event/fault combinations.

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-06-12

The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations from a variety of CMIP5 model ensembles. Here, we present results for the UK 2013/14 winter floods as proof of concept and we show validation and testing results that demonstrate the robustness of our method. We also revisit the record temperatures over Europe in 2014 and present a detailed analysis of this attribution exercise as it is one of the events to demonstrate that we can make a sensible statement of how the odds for such a year to occur have changed while it still unfolds.

Wire-Cell Tomographic Event Reconstruction for large LArTPCs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Xin; Viren, Brett; Zhang, Chao; Wire-Cell Team

2016-03-01

Event reconstruction is one of the most challenging tasks in analyzing the data from current and future large liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs). The performance of the event reconstruction holds the key to many potential future discoveries with the LArTPC technology including i) searching for new CP violation in the leptonic sector, ii) determining the neutrino mass hierarchy, and iii) searching for additional light (sterile) neutrino species. In this talk, we introduce a new reconstruction method: Wire-Cell. The principle of Wire-Cell strictly follows the principle of LArTPC, that is, the same amount of ionization electrons are observed by all the wire-planes. Using both time and charge information, 3D image of the event topologies are firstly obtained. Further reconstruction steps including the clustering, tracking, and particle identifications (PID) are then directly applied to the 3D image. The principle, current status, and future development plan of Wire-Cell will be described. The results of Wire-Cell event reconstruction will be shown with an innovative web-based ``BEE'' 3D event display. This work is supported by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics and Early Career Research program under Contract Number DE-SC0012704.

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring more in depth studies for these regions to facilitate appropriate adaptation measures.

Using Technology Supported Strategies to Improve Pre-Service Teacher Preparation in Social Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bafumo, Mary Ellen; Noel, Andrea M.

2014-01-01

The National Assessment of Educational Progress shows that many US students are deficient in core knowledge in geography, civics and current events. In this paper, a professor of social studies methods describes an action research project developed to assess and improve teacher candidates' knowledge in these areas. The article explains how data…

Moving forward: Responding to and mitigating effects of the MPB epidemic [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Claudia Regan; Barry Bollenbacher; Rob Gump; Mike Hillis

2014-01-01

The final webinar in the Future Forest Webinar Series provided an example of how managers utilized available science to address questions about post-epidemic forest conditions. Assessments of current conditions and projected trends, and how these compare with historical patterns, provide important information for land management planning. Large-scale disturbance events...

Studies in Teaching. 1995 Research Digest. Papers Presented at the Annual Research Forum (Winston-Salem, North Carolina, December 1995).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCoy, Leah P., Ed.

This is a collection of papers reporting student research projects at the Annual Research Forum, Department of Education, Wake Forest University (North Carolina). They include: "Student Interest in Studying World History in Relation to Current Events" (Conan Arthur); "Perceptions of High School Student Athletes and Athletics"…

Student Access, Institutional Capacity, and Public Higher Education Enrollment Demand, 2003-2013. Commission Report 04-07

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California Postsecondary Education Commission, 2004

2004-01-01

Numerous economic and political events have unfolded in California and the nation since the California Postsecondary Education Commission released its statewide higher education enrollment projections in year 2000 and a series of regional enrollment studies published between 2001 and April 2003. This current report represents a major update to the…

Rapid Electrochemical Detection and Identification of Microbiological and Chemical Contaminants for Manned Spaceflight Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Duane; Botkin, Douglas; Gazda, Daniel

2014-01-01

Microbial control in the spacecraft environment is a daunting task, especially in the presence of human crew members. Currently, assessing the potential crew health risk associated with a microbial contamination event requires return of representative environmental samples that are analyzed in a ground-based laboratory. It is therefore not currently possible to quickly identify microbes during spaceflight. This project addresses the unmet need for spaceflight-compatible microbial identification technology. The electrochemical detection and identification platform is expected to provide a sensitive, specific, and rapid sample-to-answer capability for in-flight microbial monitoring that can distinguish between related microorganisms (pathogens and non-pathogens) as well as chemical contaminants. This will dramatically enhance our ability to monitor the spacecraft environment and the health risk to the crew. Further, the project is expected to eliminate the need for sample return while significantly reducing crew time required for detection of multiple targets. Initial work will focus on the optimization of bacterial detection and identification. The platform is designed to release nucleic acids (DNA and RNA) from microorganisms without the use of harmful chemicals. Bacterial DNA or RNA is captured by bacteria-specific probe molecules that are bound to a microelectrode, and that capture event can generate a small change in the electrical current (Lam, et al. 2012. Anal. Chem. 84(1): 21-5.). This current is measured, and a determination is made whether a given microbe is present in the sample analyzed. Chemical detection can be accomplished by directly applying a sample to the microelectrode and measuring the resulting current change. This rapid microbial and chemical detection device is designed to be a low-cost, low-power platform anticipated to be operated independently of an external power source, characteristics optimal for manned spaceflight and areas where power and computing resources are scarce.

Connecting Shock Parameters to the Radiation Hazard from Energetic Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berdichevsky, Daniel B.; Reames, Donald V.; Lepping, Ronald P.; Schwenn, Rainer W.

2004-01-01

We use data from Helios, IMP-8, and other spacecraft (e.g. ISEE) to systematically investigate solar energetic particle (SEP) events from different longitudes and distances in the heliosphere. The purpose of the project is to assess empirically the connection between the morphology of the travelling shock and strength with observed enhancements in the flow of energized particles in shock accelerated particle (SEP) events (also often identified as "gradual" solar energetic particle events). Activities during this first year centered on the organization of the SEPs events and their correlation with solar wind observations at multiple spacecraft locations. From an identified list of more than 30 SEPs events at multiple spacecraft locations, currently four single cases for detailed study were selected and are in an advance phase of preparation for publication. Preliminary results of these four cases were presented at AGU Spring and Fall 2003 meetings, and other meetings on SEPs.

Exclusive muon neutrino charged current pion-less topologies. ArgoNeuT results and future prospects in LAr TPC detectors

DOE PAGES

Palamara, Ornella

2016-12-29

Results from the analysis of charged current pion-less (CC 0-pion) muon neutrino events in argon collected by the ArgoNeuT experiment on the NuMI beam at Fermilab are presented and compared with predictions from Monte Carlo simulations. A novel analysis method, based on the reconstruction of exclusive topologies, fully exploiting the Liquid argon Time Projection Chamber (LAr TPC) technique capabilities, is used to analyze the events, characterized by the presence at the vertex of a leading muon track eventually accompanied by one or more highly ionizing tracks, and study nuclear effects in neutrino interactions on argon nuclei. Multiple protons accompanying themore » leading muon are visible in the ArgoNeuT events, and measured with a proton reconstruction threshold of 21 MeV kinetic energy. As a result, measurements of (anti-)neutrino CC 0-pion inclusive and exclusive cross sections on argon nuclei are reported. Prospects for future, larger mass LAr TPC detectors are discussed.« less

Transitions, Risks, and Actions in Coronary Events--Center for Outcomes Research and Education (TRACE-CORE): design and rationale.

PubMed

Waring, Molly E; McManus, Richard H; Saczynski, Jane S; Anatchkova, Milena D; McManus, David D; Devereaux, Randolph S; Goldberg, Robert J; Allison, Jeroan J; Kiefe, Catarina I

2012-09-01

Cardiovascular disease continues to cause significant morbidity, mortality, and impaired quality of life, with unrealized health gains from the underuse of available evidence. The Transitions, Risks, and Actions in Coronary Events Center for Outcomes Research and Education (TRACE-CORE) aims to advance the science of acute coronary syndromes by examining the determinants and outcomes of the quality of transition from hospital to community and by quantifying the impact of potentially modifiable characteristics associated with decreased quality of life, rehospitalization, and mortality. TRACE-CORE comprises a longitudinal multiracial cohort of patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndromes, 2 research projects, and development of a nucleus of early stage investigators. We are currently enrolling 2500 adults hospitalized for acute coronary syndromes at 6 hospitals in the northeastern and southeastern United States. We will follow these patients for 24 months after hospitalization through medical record abstraction and 5 patient interviews focusing on quality of life, cardiac events, rehospitalizations, mortality, and medical, behavioral, and psychosocial characteristics. The Transitions Project studies determinants of and disparities in outcomes of the quality of patients' transition from hospital to community. Focusing on potentially modifiable factors, the Action Scores Project will develop and validate action scores to predict recurrent cardiac events, death, and quality of life, describe longitudinal variation in these scores, and develop a dashboard for patient and provider action on the basis of these scores. In TRACE-CORE, sound methodologic principles of observational studies converge with outcomes and effectiveness research approaches. We expect that our data, research infrastructure, and research projects will inform the development of novel secondary prevention approaches and underpin the careers of cardiovascular outcomes researchers.

Is there a place for nutrition-sensitive agriculture?

PubMed

Wambugu, Florence; Obukosia, Silas; Gaffney, Jim; Kamanga, Daniel; Che, Ping; Albertsen, Marc C; Zhao, Zuo-Yu; Ragland, Lonnetta; Yeye, Mary; Kimani, Esther; Aba, Daniel; Gidado, Rose; Solomon, B O; Njuguna, Michael

2015-11-01

The focus of the review paper is to discuss how biotechnological innovations are opening new frontiers to mitigate nutrition in key agricultural crops with potential for large-scale health impact to people in Africa. The general objective of the Africa Biofortified Sorghum (ABS) project is to develop and deploy sorghum with enhanced pro-vitamin A to farmers and end-users in Africa to alleviate vitamin A-related micronutrient deficiency diseases. To achieve this objective the project technology development team has developed several promising high pro-vitamin A sorghum events. ABS 203 events are so far the most advanced and well-characterised lead events with about 12 μg β-carotene/g tissue which would supply about 40-50 % of the daily recommended vitamin A at harvest. Through gene expression optimisation other events with higher amounts of pro-vitamin A, including ABS 214, ABS 235, ABS 239 with 25, 30-40, 40-50 μg β-carotene/g tissue, respectively, have been developed. ABS 239 would provide twice recommended pro-vitamin A at harvest, 50-90 % after 3 months storage and 13-45 % after 6 months storage for children. Preliminary results of introgression of ABS pro-vitamin A traits into local sorghum varieties in target countries Nigeria and Kenya show stable introgression of ABS vitamin A into local farmer-preferred sorghums varieties. ABS gene Intellectual Property Rights and Freedom to Operate have been donated for use royalty free for Africa. Prior to the focus on the current target countries, the project was implemented by fourteen institutions in Africa and the USA. For the next 5 years, the project will complete ABS product development, complete regulatory science data package and apply for product deregulation in target African countries.

The SERENDIP 2 SETI project: Current status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowyer, C. S.; Werthimer, D.; Donnelly, C.; Herrick, W.; Lampton, M.

1991-01-01

Over the past 30 years, interest in extraterrestrial intelligence has progressed from philosophical discussion to rigorous scientific endeavors attempting to make contact. Since it is impossible to assess the probability of success and the amount of telescope time needed for detection, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Projects are plagued with the problem of attaining the large amounts of time needed on the world's precious few large radio telescopes. To circumvent this problem, the Search for Extraterrestrial Radio Emissions from Nearby Developed Intelligent Populations (SERENDIP) instrument operates autonomously in a piggyback mode utilizing whatever observing plan is chosen by the primary observer. In this way, large quantities of high-quality data can be collected in a cost-effective and unobtrusive manner. During normal operations, SERENDIP logs statistically significant events for further offline analysis. Due to the large number of terrestrial and near-space transmitters on earth, a major element of the SERENDIP project involves identifying and rejecting spurious signals from these sources. Another major element of the SERENDIP Project (as well as most other SETI efforts) is detecting extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) signals. Events selected as candidate ETI signals are studied further in a targeted search program which utilizes between 24 to 48 hours of dedicated telescope time each year.

Simulation of deep ventilation in Crater Lake, Oregon, 1951–2099

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Tamara M.; Wherry, Susan A.; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Girdner, Scott F

2016-05-04

The frequency of deep ventilation events in Crater Lake, a caldera lake in the Oregon Cascade Mountains, was simulated in six future climate scenarios, using a 1-dimensional deep ventilation model (1DDV) that was developed to simulate the ventilation of deep water initiated by reverse stratification and subsequent thermobaric instability. The model was calibrated and validated with lake temperature data collected from 1994 to 2011. Wind and air temperature data from three general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways were used to simulate the change in lake temperature and the frequency of deep ventilation events in possible future climates. The lumped model air2water was used to project lake surface temperature, a required boundary condition for the lake model, based on air temperature in the future climates.The 1DDV model was used to simulate daily water temperature profiles through 2099. All future climate scenarios projected increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deep ventilation events. The least extreme scenario projected the frequency of deep ventilation events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in current conditions to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario considered projected the frequency of deep ventilation events to be about 1 in 7.7 years by 2100. All scenarios predicted that the temperature of the entire water column will be greater than 4 °C for increasing lengths of time in the future and that the conditions required for thermobaric instability induced mixing will become rare or non-existent.The disruption of deep ventilation by itself does not provide a complete picture of the potential ecological and water quality consequences of warming climate to Crater Lake. Estimating the effect of warming climate on deep water oxygen depletion and water clarity will require careful modeling studies to combine the physical mixing processes affected by the atmosphere with the multitude of factors affecting the growth of algae and corresponding water clarity.

IRiS: construction of ARG networks at genomic scales.

PubMed

Javed, Asif; Pybus, Marc; Melé, Marta; Utro, Filippo; Bertranpetit, Jaume; Calafell, Francesc; Parida, Laxmi

2011-09-01

Given a set of extant haplotypes IRiS first detects high confidence recombination events in their shared genealogy. Next using the local sequence topology defined by each detected event, it integrates these recombinations into an ancestral recombination graph. While the current system has been calibrated for human population data, it is easily extendible to other species as well. IRiS (Identification of Recombinations in Sequences) binary files are available for non-commercial use in both Linux and Microsoft Windows, 32 and 64 bit environments from https://researcher.ibm.com/researcher/view_project.php?id = 2303 parida@us.ibm.com.

HepSim: A repository with predictions for high-energy physics experiments

DOE PAGES

Chekanov, S. V.

2015-02-03

A file repository for calculations of cross sections and kinematic distributions using Monte Carlo generators for high-energy collisions is discussed. The repository is used to facilitate effective preservation and archiving of data from theoretical calculations and for comparisons with experimental data. The HepSim data library is publicly accessible and includes a number of Monte Carlo event samples with Standard Model predictions for current and future experiments. The HepSim project includes a software package to automate the process of downloading and viewing online Monte Carlo event samples. Data streaming over a network for end-user analysis is discussed.

Final report for LDRD project 11-0029 : high-interest event detection in large-scale multi-modal data sets : proof of concept.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rohrer, Brandon Robinson

2011-09-01

Events of interest to data analysts are sometimes difficult to characterize in detail. Rather, they consist of anomalies, events that are unpredicted, unusual, or otherwise incongruent. The purpose of this LDRD was to test the hypothesis that a biologically-inspired anomaly detection algorithm could be used to detect contextual, multi-modal anomalies. There currently is no other solution to this problem, but the existence of a solution would have a great national security impact. The technical focus of this research was the application of a brain-emulating cognition and control architecture (BECCA) to the problem of anomaly detection. One aspect of BECCA inmore » particular was discovered to be critical to improved anomaly detection capabilities: it's feature creator. During the course of this project the feature creator was developed and tested against multiple data types. Development direction was drawn from psychological and neurophysiological measurements. Major technical achievements include the creation of hierarchical feature sets created from both audio and imagery data.« less

Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves for U.S. Cities in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte; Vahedifard, Farshid; Cheng, Linyin; Lima, Carlos

2017-04-01

Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of infrastructures and natural slopes. Here we employ daily precipitation data from historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on future climatic model projections. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, U.S cities may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequently, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation.

The James Webb STEM Innovation Project: Bringing JWST to the Education Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenhamer, Bonnie; Harris, J.; Ryer, H.; Taylor, J.; Bishop, M.

2012-01-01

Building awareness of a NASA mission prior to launch and connecting that mission to the education community can be challenging. In order to address this challenge, the Space Telescope Science Institute's Office of Public Outreach has developed the James Webb STEM innovation Project (SIP) - an interdisciplinary project that focuses on the engineering aspects and potential scientific discoveries of JWST, while incorporating elements of project-based learning. Students in participating schools will use skills from multiple subject areas to research an aspect of the JWST's design or potential science and create models, illustrated essays, or technology-based projects to demonstrate their learning. Student projects will be showcased during special events at select venues in the project states - thus allowing parents and community members to also be benefactors of the project. Currently, the SIP is being piloted in New York, California, and Maryland. In addition, we will be implementing the SIP in partnership with NASA Explorer Schools in the states of New Mexico, Michigan, Texas, Tennessee, and Iowa.

1996 annual report on Alaska's mineral resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, Jill L.

1997-01-01

This is the fifteenth annual report that has been prepared in response to the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act. Current Alaskan mineral projects and events that occurred during 1995 are summarized. For the purpose of this document, the term 'minerals' encompasses both energy resources (oil and gas, coal and peat, uranium, and geothermal) and nonfuel-mineral resources (metallic and industrial minerals).

The UAP Observations Reporting Scheme, an Invaluable Tool for Collecting Data on Unusual Observations in the Atmosphere and Demystifying UFOs Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ailleris, P.

2011-10-01

This presentation will focus on providing an overview of the project and its current status, highlighting the latest results, infrastructure, outreach activities (e.g. partnerships with "Astronomers Without Borders", "The World At Night"), while exploring ideas for the future and requesting feedback from the community of planetary scientists.

Probing the neutrino mass ordering with KM3NeT-ORCA: analysis and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capozzi, Francesco; Lisi, Eligio; Marrone, Antonio

2018-02-01

The discrimination of the two possible options for the neutrino mass ordering (normal or inverted) is a major goal for current and future neutrino oscillation experiments. Such a goal might be reached by observing high-statistics energy-angle spectra of events induced by atmospheric neutrinos and antineutrinos propagating in the Earth matter. Large volume water-Cherenkov detectors envisaged to this purpose include the so-called KM3NeT-ORCA project (in seawater) and the IceCube-PINGU project (in ice). Building upon a previous work focused on PINGU, we study in detail the effects of various systematic uncertainties on the ORCA sensitivity to the mass ordering, for the reference configuration with 9 m vertical spacing. We point out the need to control spectral shape uncertainties at the percent level, the effects of better priors on the {θ }23 mixing parameter, and the benefits of an improved flavor identification in reconstructed ORCA events.

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Phenomenal characteristics associated with projecting oneself back into the past and forward into the future: influence of valence and temporal distance.

PubMed

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2004-12-01

As humans, we frequently engage in mental time travel, reliving past experiences and imagining possible future events. This study examined whether similar factors affect the subjective experience associated with remembering the past and imagining the future. Participants mentally "re-experienced" or "pre-experienced" positive and negative events that differed in their temporal distance from the present (close versus distant), and then rated the phenomenal characteristics (i.e., sensorial, contextual, and emotional details) associated with their representations. For both past and future, representations of positive events were associated with a greater feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of negative events. In addition, representations of temporally close events (both past and future) contained more sensorial and contextual details, and generated a stronger feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of temporally distant events. It is suggested that the way we both remember our past and imagine our future is constrained by our current goals.

Impact of an Event Reporting System on Resident Complication Reporting in Plastic Surgery Training: Addressing an ACGME and Plastic Surgery Milestone Project Core Competency.

PubMed

Parikh, Rajiv P; Snyder-Warwick, Alison; Naidoo, Sybill; Skolnick, Gary B; Patel, Kamlesh B

2017-11-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and Plastic Surgery Milestone Project has identified practice-based learning and improvement, which involves systematically analyzing current practices and implementing changes, as a core competency in residency education. In surgical care, complication reporting is an essential component of practice-based learning and improvement as complications are analyzed in morbidity and mortality conference for quality improvement. Unfortunately, current methods for capturing a comprehensive profile of complications may significantly underestimate the true occurrence of complications. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to evaluate an intervention for complication reporting and compare this to current practice, in a plastic surgery training program. This is a preintervention and postintervention study evaluating resident reporting of complications on a plastic surgery service. The intervention was an online event reporting system developed by department leadership and patient safety experts. The cohorts consisted of all patients undergoing surgery during two separate 3-month blocks bridged by an implementation period. A trained reviewer recorded complications, and this served as the reference standard. Fisher's exact test was used for binary comparisons. There were 32 complications detected in 219 patients from June to August of 2015 and 35 complications in 202 patients from October to December of 2015. The proportion of complications reported in the preintervention group was nine of 32 (28.1 percent). After the intervention, this significantly increased to 32 of 35 (91.4 percent) (p < 0.001). An intervention using an event reporting system, supported by departmental leadership, led to significant improvements in complication reporting by plastic surgery residents.

Projection of seasonal summer precipitation over Indian sub-continent with a high-resolution AGCM based on the RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

2018-05-01

Seasonal changes in precipitation characteristics over India were projected using a high-resolution (40-km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) during the near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069), and far- (2070-2099) futures. For the model evaluation, we simulated an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type present-day climate using AGCM with observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Based on this simulation, we have simulated the current climate from 1979 to 2009 and subsequently the future climate projection until 2100 using a CMCC-CM model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Using various observed precipitation data, the validation of the simulated precipitation indicates that the AGCM well-captured the high and low rain belts and also onset and withdrawal of monsoon in the present-day climate simulation. Future projections were performed for the above-mentioned time slices (near-, mid-, and far futures). The model projected an increase in summer precipitation from 7 to 18% under RCP4.5 and from 14 to 18% under RCP8.5 from the mid- to far futures. Projected summer precipitation from different time slices depicts an increase over northwest (NWI) and west-south peninsular India (SPI) and a reduction over northeast and north-central India. The model projected an eastward shift of monsoon trough around 2° longitude and expansion and intensification of Mascarene High and Tibetan High seems to be associated with projected precipitation. The model projected extreme precipitation events show an increase (20-50%) in rainy days over NWI and SPI. While a significant increase of about 20-50% is noticed in heavy rain events over SPI during the far future.

Monitoring Space Radiation Hazards with the Responsive Environmental Assessment Commercially Hosted (REACH) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazur, J. E.; Guild, T. B.; Crain, W.; Crain, S.; Holker, D.; Quintana, S.; O'Brien, T. P., III; Kelly, M. A.; Barnes, R. J.; Sotirelis, T.

2017-12-01

The Responsive Environmental Assessment Commercial Hosting (REACH) project uses radiation dosimeters on a commercial satellite constellation in low Earth orbit to provide unprecedented spatial and time sampling of space weather radiation hazards. The spatial and time scales of natural space radiation environments coupled with constraints for the hosting accommodation drove the instrumentation requirements and the plan for the final orbital constellation. The project has delivered a total of thirty two radiation dosimeter instruments for launch with each instrument containing two dosimeters with different passive shielding and electronic thresholds to address proton-induced single-event effects, vehicle charging, and total ionizing dose. There are two REACH instruments currently operating with four more planned for launch by the time of the 2017 meeting. Our aim is to field a long-lived system of highly-capable radiation detectors to monitor the hazards of single-event effects, total ionizing dose, and spacecraft charging with maximized spatial coverage and with minimal time latency. We combined a robust detection technology with a commercial satellite hosting to produce a new demonstration for satellite situational awareness and for other engineering and science applications.

The IMI PROTECT project: purpose, organizational structure, and procedures.

PubMed

Reynolds, Robert F; Kurz, Xavier; de Groot, Mark C H; Schlienger, Raymond G; Grimaldi-Bensouda, Lamiae; Tcherny-Lessenot, Stephanie; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

The Pharmacoepidemiological Research on Outcomes of Therapeutics by a European ConsorTium (PROTECT) initiative was a collaborative European project that sought to address limitations of current methods in the field of pharmacoepidemiology and pharmacovigilance. Initiated in 2009 and ending in 2015, PROTECT was part of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, a joint undertaking by the European Union and pharmaceutical industry. Thirty-five partners including academics, regulators, small and medium enterprises, and European Federation of Pharmaceuticals Industries and Associations companies contributed to PROTECT. Two work packages within PROTECT implemented research examining the extent to which differences in the study design, methodology, and choice of data source can contribute to producing discrepant results from observational studies on drug safety. To evaluate the effect of these differences, the project applied different designs and analytic methodology for six drug-adverse event pairs across several electronic healthcare databases and registries. This papers introduces the organizational structure and procedures of PROTECT, including how drug-adverse event and data sources were selected, study design and analyses documents were developed, and results managed centrally. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Structural Analysis of Thermal Shields During a Quench of a Torus Magnet for the 12 GeV Upgrade

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pastor, Orlando; Willard, Thomas; Ghoshal, Probir K.

A toroidal magnet system consisting of six superconducting coils is being built for the Jefferson Lab 12- GeV accelerator upgrade project. This paper details the analysis of eddy current effects during a quench event on the aluminum thermal shield. The shield has been analyzed for mechanical stresses induced as a result of a coil quench as well as a fast discharge of the complete magnet system. The shield has been designed to reduce the eddy current effects and result in stresses within allowable limits.

The Indiana Public Health Emergency Surveillance System: Ongoing Progress, Early Findings, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Grannis, Shaun; Wade, Michael; Gibson, Joseph; Overhage, J. Marc

2006-01-01

Beginning in 2004, the Indiana State Department of Health (ISDH) partnered with the Regenstrief Institute on a 4-year project to implement a statewide biosurveillance system incorporating more than 110 hospitals. This paper describes our evolving experience with the system including ongoing implementation challenges, how the system has helped to uncover events of public health significance, and future directions. The system currently receives emergency department visit data from 50 hospitals totaling nearly 5,000 visits per day, and is projected to have 65 hospitals connected by August 2006. PMID:17238352

Projecting adverse event incidence rates using empirical Bayes methodology.

PubMed

Ma, Guoguang Julie; Ganju, Jitendra; Huang, Jing

2016-08-01

Although there is considerable interest in adverse events observed in clinical trials, projecting adverse event incidence rates in an extended period can be of interest when the trial duration is limited compared to clinical practice. A naïve method for making projections might involve modeling the observed rates into the future for each adverse event. However, such an approach overlooks the information that can be borrowed across all the adverse event data. We propose a method that weights each projection using a shrinkage factor; the adverse event-specific shrinkage is a probability, based on empirical Bayes methodology, estimated from all the adverse event data, reflecting evidence in support of the null or non-null hypotheses. Also proposed is a technique to estimate the proportion of true nulls, called the common area under the density curves, which is a critical step in arriving at the shrinkage factor. The performance of the method is evaluated by projecting from interim data and then comparing the projected results with observed results. The method is illustrated on two data sets. © The Author(s) 2013.

Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

2011-12-01

Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations. During historical tsunamis events, Mayotte registered important run-up along its coasts (between 3 and 4.4 m for the 2004 event). In La Réunion, the west coast is the most affected (to 2.7 m in the harbor of La Possession for 2004 event) by transoceanic tsunamis. For example, selected sites situated along the West coast of La Réunion are significantly impacted. Simulations have been performed at St Paul; the low topography of this town could make it particularly vulnerable to tsunami waves. Harbors, particularly prone to undergo significant damages, are also examined. The harbors of La Pointe des Galets and La Possession, respectively west and east of the town of Le Port, are studied in details in order to characterize and quantify potential large waves and strong currents. Outside the harbors as well as at Saint Paul, inundations are predicted along the coastline due to important local water heights (> 2.5 m).

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

Wet, Dry, Dim, or Bright? The Future of Water Resources in North Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brikowski, T. H.

2009-12-01

Future water resource availability in North Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex) is likely to be limited by the combined impact of decadal-scale and longer term climate changes. Two decadal precipitation anomalies are statistically distinguishable in the historical record (dry/wet, Table 1). These correspond temporally with the onset of global dimming/brightening events (hydrologic cycle retardation/acceleration) respectively (Table 1). Surface water hydrologic parameters are variably correlated with these events, depending on the degree of time-integration of each process. Precipitation correlates most strongly with the decadal anomalies. Runoff changes during these periods were magnified relative to precipitation changes, presumably an effect of soil moisture changes, and over the basin as a whole correlate best with the global events. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) attempts to capture such effects, and also correlates most strongly with the global events. The most important time-integrators of the system, reservoirs, show mixed correlation in terms of total storage with the decadal and longer term climate periods. Reservoir flood releases (excess storage) correlate with decadal precipitation anomalies, in part reflecting short-term consumption influences. Major reservoirs in the area post-date the dry period, precluding direct evaluation of sustainability from historical records. Historical correlations versus PDSI can be combined with climate-model based PDSI projections to evaluate future sustainability. Climate projections based on a mean of 19 IPCC intermediate scenario (SRESa1b) models indicate an approximately 10% reduction in mean annual precipitation, and warming of 2oC by 2050 in this region. Steady lowering of mean annual PDSI results, with a 50% probability that annual PDSI will average -0.5 by 2050. Average climate will move from humid (Aridity Index=35) to semi-humid (AI=27), and runoff can be expected to decline accordingly. Probability of a continuous two-year drought, historically sufficient to trigger Stage 3 drought restrictions, more than doubles to 15%/yr by 2050. Based on least-squares fit of historical PDSI and streamflow, median predicted watershed runoff declines by 23%. This reduction brings projected reservoir input to approximately the same value as current annual consumption from those reservoirs. These projected reservoir inflow changes would limit water supply sustainability in North Texas. Inflow declines are similar whether caused by recurrence of observed decadal precipitation variations or long term climate change. The magnitude of these declines (20%) is similar to projected shortfalls based only on population growth by 2050. Evidently both a serious conservation program and currently planned water importation projects will be required to maintain water supply in North Texas.Table 1: Departures from mean and probability that change is random for indicated climate periods

The Boyden Observatories Museum -- Project Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Heerden, H. J.; van Jaarsveldt, D. P.; Hoffman, M. J. H.

2010-12-01

The planned museum at Boyden about the history of the observatories in Bloemfontein as well as the Roberts archives and all the most important contributors to astronomy in the region will be discussed. The layout, current progress, future plans, the people involved and all relevant information will be shown. A conclusion about the possible impact and the possible events around the opening will then be made.

Framework for Educational Robotics: A Multiphase Approach to Enhance User Learning in a Competitive Arena

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lye, Ngit Chan; Wong, Kok Wai; Chiou, Andrew

2013-01-01

Educational robotics involves using robots as an educational tool to provide a long term, and progressive learning activity, to cater to different age group. The current concern is that, using robots in education should not be an instance of a one-off project for the sole purpose of participating in a competitive event. Instead, it should be a…

Basolateral Amygdala to Orbitofrontal Cortex Projections Enable Cue-Triggered Reward Expectations.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Nina T; Pennington, Zachary T; Holley, Sandra M; Greenfield, Venuz Y; Cepeda, Carlos; Levine, Michael S; Wassum, Kate M

2017-08-30

To make an appropriate decision, one must anticipate potential future rewarding events, even when they are not readily observable. These expectations are generated by using observable information (e.g., stimuli or available actions) to retrieve often quite detailed memories of available rewards. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) are two reciprocally connected key nodes in the circuitry supporting such outcome-guided behaviors. But there is much unknown about the contribution of this circuit to decision making, and almost nothing known about the whether any contribution is via direct, monosynaptic projections, or the direction of information transfer. Therefore, here we used designer receptor-mediated inactivation of OFC→BLA or BLA→OFC projections to evaluate their respective contributions to outcome-guided behaviors in rats. Inactivation of BLA terminals in the OFC, but not OFC terminals in the BLA, disrupted the selective motivating influence of cue-triggered reward representations over reward-seeking decisions as assayed by Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer. BLA→OFC projections were also required when a cued reward representation was used to modify Pavlovian conditional goal-approach responses according to the reward's current value. These projections were not necessary when actions were guided by reward expectations generated based on learned action-reward contingencies, or when rewards themselves, rather than stored memories, directed action. These data demonstrate that BLA→OFC projections enable the cue-triggered reward expectations that can motivate the execution of specific action plans and allow adaptive conditional responding. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Deficits anticipating potential future rewarding events are associated with many psychiatric diseases. Presently, we know little about the neural circuits supporting such reward expectation. Here we show that basolateral amygdala to orbitofrontal cortex projections are required for expectations of specific available rewards to influence reward seeking and decision making. The necessity of these projections was limited to situations in which expectations were elicited by reward-predictive cues. These projections therefore facilitate adaptive behavior by enabling the orbitofrontal cortex to use environmental stimuli to generate expectations of potential future rewarding events. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378374-11$15.00/0.

Basolateral Amygdala to Orbitofrontal Cortex Projections Enable Cue-Triggered Reward Expectations

PubMed Central

Lichtenberg, Nina T.; Pennington, Zachary T.; Holley, Sandra M.; Greenfield, Venuz Y.; Levine, Michael S.

2017-01-01

To make an appropriate decision, one must anticipate potential future rewarding events, even when they are not readily observable. These expectations are generated by using observable information (e.g., stimuli or available actions) to retrieve often quite detailed memories of available rewards. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) are two reciprocally connected key nodes in the circuitry supporting such outcome-guided behaviors. But there is much unknown about the contribution of this circuit to decision making, and almost nothing known about the whether any contribution is via direct, monosynaptic projections, or the direction of information transfer. Therefore, here we used designer receptor-mediated inactivation of OFC→BLA or BLA→OFC projections to evaluate their respective contributions to outcome-guided behaviors in rats. Inactivation of BLA terminals in the OFC, but not OFC terminals in the BLA, disrupted the selective motivating influence of cue-triggered reward representations over reward-seeking decisions as assayed by Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer. BLA→OFC projections were also required when a cued reward representation was used to modify Pavlovian conditional goal-approach responses according to the reward's current value. These projections were not necessary when actions were guided by reward expectations generated based on learned action-reward contingencies, or when rewards themselves, rather than stored memories, directed action. These data demonstrate that BLA→OFC projections enable the cue-triggered reward expectations that can motivate the execution of specific action plans and allow adaptive conditional responding. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Deficits anticipating potential future rewarding events are associated with many psychiatric diseases. Presently, we know little about the neural circuits supporting such reward expectation. Here we show that basolateral amygdala to orbitofrontal cortex projections are required for expectations of specific available rewards to influence reward seeking and decision making. The necessity of these projections was limited to situations in which expectations were elicited by reward-predictive cues. These projections therefore facilitate adaptive behavior by enabling the orbitofrontal cortex to use environmental stimuli to generate expectations of potential future rewarding events. PMID:28743727

"EARTH: The Operators' Manual" - a hybrid model (TV+online+in-person) to effectively communicate climate change science alongside sustainable energy solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haines-stiles, G.; Alley, R. B.; Akuginow, E.

2011-12-01

Recent public opinion surveys have found that Americans underestimate the degree of agreement by climate scientists about global warming and climate change, and - despite growing evidence of ice sheet loss, ocean acidification, sea level rise and extreme weather events - believe less in warming trends in 2011 than they did earlier. The issue has become politicized and controversial. "EARTH: The Operators' Manual" is an informal science education project supported by NSF, the National Science Foundation. Its ambitious goal is to use a hybrid mix of broadcast programs appearing on public television and hosted by Penn State geoscientist, Richard Alley, together with on-site outreach events and online resources and tools, to present core climate science in engaging ways, and to combine that presentation of objective research with an overview of sustainable energy solutions. The project's content and communication strategies have been shaped in response to analyses of public opinion such as the SIX AMERICAS study and aim to address common "skeptic" arguments and share essential climate science. Social science research has also found that audiences seem more open to scientific information where the possibility of a positive response is also offered. The first hour-long PBS program aired nationally in April 2011, has since been re-broadcast, and is also available online. Two more programs will air in 2012, and the presentation at the Fall AGU Conference will preview segments from both programs. Five regionally-diverse science centers (in San Diego, Raleigh NC, St. Paul MN, Fort Worth TX and Portland OR) have hosted outreach events, with Richard Alley and other project participants, and will continue with additional activities through summer 2012. The project's website includes video clips, case studies of energy-saving initiatives world-wide and across the USA, plus an interactive "Energy Gauge" inviting users to assess their current Home, Travel, Food, and Goods and Services usage, and commit to cutting back. The project is also experimenting with the use of social media to share information and gather feedback, and to promote local events. As an NSF-supported project, evaluation is a key element. Rockman Et Al has used focus groups to assess the video programs, and gathered data on website usage and the museum events. That input, with statistics and other findings to be reported at AGU 2011, has shaped the ongoing development of the project.

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.;

Connecting the Pioneers, Current Leaders and the Nature and History of Space Weather with K-12 Classrooms and the General Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, C.; Thompson, B. J.; Cline, T.; Lewis, E.; Barbier, B.; Odenwald, S.; Spadaccini, J.; James, N.; Stephenson, B.; Davis, H. B.; Major, E. R.; Space Weather Living History

2011-12-01

The Space Weather Living History program will explore and share the breakthrough new science and captivating stories of space environments and space weather by interviewing space physics pioneers and leaders active from the International Geophysical Year (IGY) to the present. Our multi-mission project will capture, document and preserve the living history of space weather utilizing original historical materials (primary sources). The resulting products will allow us to tell the stories of those involved in interactive new media to address important STEM needs, inspire the next generation of explorers, and feature women as role models. The project is divided into several stages, and the first stage, which began in mid-2011, focuses on resource gathering. The goal is to capture not just anecdotes, but the careful analogies and insights of researchers and historians associated with the programs and events. The Space Weather Living History Program has a Scientific Advisory Board, and with the Board's input our team will determine the chronology, key researchers, events, missions and discoveries for interviews. Education activities will be designed to utilize autobiographies, newspapers, interviews, research reports, journal articles, conference proceedings, dissertations, websites, diaries, letters, and artworks. With the help of a multimedia firm, we will use some of these materials to develop an interactive timeline on the web, and as a downloadable application in a kiosk and on tablet computers. In summary, our project augments the existing historical records with education technologies, connect the pioneers, current leaders and the nature and history of space weather with K-12 classrooms and the general public, covering all areas of studies in Heliophysics. The project is supported by NASA award NNX11AJ61G.

Candidate Binary Microlensing Events from the MACHO Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, A. C.; Alcock, C.; Allsman, R. A.; Alves, D. R.; Axelrod, T. S.; Bennett, D. P.; Cook, K. H.; Drake, A. J.; Freeman, K. C.; Griest, K.; King, L. J.; Lehner, M. J.; Marshall, S. L.; Minniti, D.; Peterson, B. A.; Popowski, P.; Pratt, M. R.; Quinn, P. J.; Rodgers, A. W.; Stubbs, C. W.; Sutherland, W.; Tomaney, A.; Vandehei, T.; Welch, D. L.; Baines, D.; Brakel, A.; Crook, B.; Howard, J.; Leach, T.; McDowell, D.; McKeown, S.; Mitchell, J.; Moreland, J.; Pozza, E.; Purcell, P.; Ring, S.; Salmon, A.; Ward, K.; Wyper, G.; Heller, A.; Kaspi, S.; Kovo, O.; Maoz, D.; Retter, A.; Rhie, S. H.; Stetson, P.; Walker, A.; MACHO Collaboration

1998-12-01

We present the lightcurves of 22 gravitational microlensing events from the first six years of the MACHO Project gravitational microlensing survey which are likely examples of lensing by binary systems. These events were selected from a total sample of ~ 300 events which were either detected by the MACHO Alert System or discovered through retrospective analyses of the MACHO database. Many of these events appear to have undergone a caustic or cusp crossing, and 2 of the events are well fit with lensing by binary systems with large mass ratios, indicating secondary companions of approximately planetary mass. The event rate is roughly consistent with predictions based upon our knowledge of the properties of binary stars. The utility of binary lensing in helping to solve the Galactic dark matter problem is demonstrated with analyses of 3 binary microlensing events seen towards the Magellanic Clouds. Source star resolution during caustic crossings in 2 of these events allows us to estimate the location of the lensing systems, assuming each source is a single star and not a short period binary. * MACHO LMC-9 appears to be a binary lensing event with a caustic crossing partially resolved in 2 observations. The resulting lens proper motion appears too small for a single source and LMC disk lens. However, it is considerably less likely to be a single source star and Galactic halo lens. We estimate the a priori probability of a short period binary source with a detectable binary character to be ~ 10 %. If the source is also a binary, then we currently have no constraints on the lens location. * The most recent of these events, MACHO 98-SMC-1, was detected in real-time. Follow-up observations by the MACHO/GMAN, PLANET, MPS, EROS and OGLE microlensing collaborations lead to the robust conclusion that the lens likely resides in the SMC.

Creation of a Web Map and Mobile Application Based on a Printed Book

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holubec, V.; Valášková, T.; Halounová, L.

2016-06-01

The project describes a process of conversion of printed books into a web map and mobile application. The goal of the project is to make spatial data in the book accessible to wide public using GIS especially on web in order to spread the information about this topic. Moreover, as a result of the analysis and of the new perspectives gained from the data context, historians will be able to find new connections. The books that serve as sources of the project (two books with the scope of about 1400 pages featuring hundreds of locations where each location is associated with more events of different types) refer to places with many addresses in Prague and some villages in the Czech Republic which are related to events that took place during the World War II. The paper describes the steps of conversion, the design of the data model in Esri geodatabase and examples of outputs. The historical data are connected to actual addresses and thanks to such a combination of historical and actual locations, the project will help to discover a part of the history of the Czech Republic and it will show new context in data via GIS capabilities. This project is a continuation of a project which recorded a march of death on a map. This is a unique project created in cooperation with Academia Publishing. The outputs of the project will serve as a core resource for a multimedia history portal. The author of the book is currently writing sequels from the post-war period and at least two other books are envisioned, so the future of the project is ensured.

The Geomechanics of CO 2 Storage in Deep Sedimentary Formations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rutqvist, Jonny

2012-01-12

This study provides a review of the geomechanics and modeling of geomechanics associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS), focusing on storage in deep sedimentary formations, in particular saline aquifers. The paper first introduces the concept of storage in deep sedimentary formations, the geomechanical processes and issues related with such an operation, and the relevant geomechanical modeling tools. This is followed by a more detailed review of geomechanical aspects, including reservoir stress-strain and microseismicity, well integrity, caprock sealing performance, and the potential for fault reactivation and notable (felt) seismic events. Geomechanical observations at current GCS field deployments, mainly at the Inmore » Salah CO 2 storage project in Algeria, are also integrated into the review. The In Salah project, with its injection into a relatively thin, low-permeability sandstone is an excellent analogue to the saline aquifers that might be used for large scale GCS in parts of Northwest Europe, the U.S. Midwest, and China. Some of the lessons learned at In Salah related to geomechanics are discussed, including how monitoring of geomechanical responses is used for detecting subsurface geomechanical changes and tracking fluid movements, and how such monitoring and geomechanical analyses have led to preventative changes in the injection parameters. Recently, the importance of geomechanics has become more widely recognized among GCS stakeholders, especially with respect to the potential for triggering notable (felt) seismic events and how such events could impact the long-term integrity of a CO 2 repository (as well as how it could impact the public perception of GCS). As described in the paper, to date, no notable seismic event has been reported from any of the current CO 2 storage projects, although some unfelt microseismic activities have been detected by geophones. However, potential future commercial GCS operations from large power plants will require injection at a much larger scale. In conclusion, for such large-scale injections, a staged, learn-as-you-go approach is recommended, involving a gradual increase of injection rates combined with continuous monitoring of geomechanical changes, as well as siting beneath a multiple layered overburden for multiple flow barrier protection, should an unexpected deep fault reactivation occur.« less

Kink modes and surface currents associated with vertical displacement events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manickam, Janardhan; Boozer, Allen; Gerhardt, Stefan

2012-08-01

The fast termination phase of a vertical displacement event (VDE) in a tokamak is modeled as a sequence of shrinking equilibria, where the core current profile remains constant so that the safety-factor at the axis, qaxis, remains fixed and the qedge systematically decreases. At some point, the n = 1 kink mode is destabilized. Kink modes distort the magnetic field lines outside the plasma, and surface currents are required to nullify the normal component of the B-field at the plasma boundary and maintain equilibrium at finite pressure. If the plasma touches a conductor, the current can be transferred to the conductor, and may be measurable by the halo current monitors. This report describes a practical method to model the plasma as it evolves during a VDE, and determine the surface currents, needed to maintain equilibrium. The main results are that the onset conditions for the disruption are that the growth-rate of the n = 1 kink exceeds half the Alfven time and the associated surface current needed to maintain equilibrium exceeds one half of the core plasma current. This occurs when qedge drops below a low integer, usually 2. Application to NSTX provides favorable comparison with non-axisymmetric halo-current measurements. The model is also applied to ITER and shows that the 2/1 mode is projected to be the most likely cause of the final disruption.

the Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events: Status and Prospects

DOE PAGES

Alduino, C.; Alfonso, K.; Artusa, D. R.; ...

2017-05-09

The Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events (CUORE) is a large-scale double beta decay experiment utilizing cryogenic bolometers that is currently being commissioned at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory (LNGS) in Italy. Its primary focus is to search for the neutrinoless double beta decay of 130Te with a projected sensitivity to Majorana neutrino masses near the inverted mass hierarchy region. The detector is composed of 988 5x5x5-cm 3 TeO 2 crystals of natural isotopic composition arranged in 19 towers of 52 crystals each, all housed in a common dilution refrigerator. A single CUORE-like tower, CUORE-0, was assembled and operated asmore » a stand-alone detector for a period of approximately two years. In this report, the results from CUORE-0 and the current status and physics potential of CUORE are presented.« less

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable decision making.Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Regional projections, WRF.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER). This analysis was carried out in the ALHAMBRA computer infrastructure at the University of Granada.

Heavy Ion Acceleration at J-PARC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SATO, Susumu

2018-02-01

J-PARC, the Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex, is an accelerator, which provides a high-intensity proton beam. Recently as a very attractive project, the acceleration of heavy ions produced by supplementary ion sources, called J-PARC-HI, is seriously contemplated by domestic as well as international communities. The planned facility would accelerate heavy ions up to U92+ with a beam energy 20 AGeV ( of 6.2 AGeV). The highlight of the J-PARC-HI project is its very high beam rate up to 1011 Hz, which will enable the study of very rare events. Taking advantage of this high intensity, J-PARC-HI will carry out frontier studies of new and rare observables in this energy region: (i) nuclear medium modification of chiral property of vector mesons through low-mass di-lepton signal, (ii) QCD critical pointcharacterization through event-by-event fluctuation signals of particle production, (iii) systematic measurements related to the equation of state through collective flow signal or two-particle momentum correlation signal, or (iv) the search of hyper nuclei with multi strangeness including or exceeding S = 3. The current plan of J-PARC-HI aims to carrying out the first experimental measurements in 2025.

Assessing the Impact of Newspaper in Education Programs: Changes in Student Attitudes, Newspaper Reading, and Political Awareness. Newspaper Readership Project Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Thelma

A study was conducted to assess the impact of heavier and lighter exposure to newspapers on students' readership of and attitudes toward newspapers and on their awareness of and interest in current events. Newspapers in six cities across the United States had students in grades 5 through 12 fill out attitude and information questionnaires at the…

Socio-economic Impact Analysis for Near Real-Time Flood Detection in the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oddo, P.; Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

2017-12-01

Flood events pose a severe threat to communities in the Lower Mekong River Basin. The combination of population growth, urbanization, and economic development exacerbate the impacts of these flood events. Flood damage assessments are frequently used to quantify the economic losses in the wake of storms. These assessments are critical for understanding the effects of flooding on the local population, and for informing decision-makers about future risks. Remote sensing systems provide a valuable tool for monitoring flood conditions and assessing their severity more rapidly than traditional post-event evaluations. The frequency and severity of extreme flood events are projected to increase, further illustrating the need for improved flood monitoring and impact analysis. In this study we implement a socio-economic damage model into a decision support tool with near real-time flood detection capabilities (NASA's Project Mekong). Surface water extent for current and historical floods is found using multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Direct and indirect damages to populations, infrastructure, and agriculture are assessed using the 2011 Southeast Asian flood as a case study. Improved land cover and flood depth assessments result in a more refined understanding of losses throughout the Mekong River Basin. Results suggest that rapid initial estimates of flood impacts can provide valuable information to governments, international agencies, and disaster responders in the wake of extreme flood events.

The case for reassessment of health care technology. Once is not enough.

PubMed

Banta, H D; Thacker, S B

1990-07-11

Assessment of health care technologies should be an iterative process, not a single event. In the United States there are an increasing number of organized attempts at reassessment of technologies by the health industry, professional societies, and national government agencies, such as the Medical Necessity Project of Blue Cross/Blue Shield, the Clinical Efficacy Assessment Project of the American College of Physicians, and the work of the US Preventive Services Task Force. We examine four clinical practices--electronic fetal monitoring, episiotomy, electroencephalography, and hysterectomy--to illustrate the need to continuously reassess existing technologies and to challenge our current inertia in this critical arena of health practice.

The Pandora multi-algorithm approach to automated pattern recognition of cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acciarri, R.; Adams, C.; An, R.; Anthony, J.; Asaadi, J.; Auger, M.; Bagby, L.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baller, B.; Barnes, C.; Barr, G.; Bass, M.; Bay, F.; Bishai, M.; Blake, A.; Bolton, T.; Camilleri, L.; Caratelli, D.; Carls, B.; Castillo Fernandez, R.; Cavanna, F.; Chen, H.; Church, E.; Cianci, D.; Cohen, E.; Collin, G. H.; Conrad, J. M.; Convery, M.; Crespo-Anadón, J. I.; Del Tutto, M.; Devitt, D.; Dytman, S.; Eberly, B.; Ereditato, A.; Escudero Sanchez, L.; Esquivel, J.; Fadeeva, A. A.; Fleming, B. T.; Foreman, W.; Furmanski, A. P.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Garvey, G. T.; Genty, V.; Goeldi, D.; Gollapinni, S.; Graf, N.; Gramellini, E.; Greenlee, H.; Grosso, R.; Guenette, R.; Hackenburg, A.; Hamilton, P.; Hen, O.; Hewes, J.; Hill, C.; Ho, J.; Horton-Smith, G.; Hourlier, A.; Huang, E.-C.; James, C.; Jan de Vries, J.; Jen, C.-M.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, R. A.; Joshi, J.; Jostlein, H.; Kaleko, D.; Karagiorgi, G.; Ketchum, W.; Kirby, B.; Kirby, M.; Kobilarcik, T.; Kreslo, I.; Laube, A.; Li, Y.; Lister, A.; Littlejohn, B. R.; Lockwitz, S.; Lorca, D.; Louis, W. C.; Luethi, M.; Lundberg, B.; Luo, X.; Marchionni, A.; Mariani, C.; Marshall, J.; Martinez Caicedo, D. A.; Meddage, V.; Miceli, T.; Mills, G. B.; Moon, J.; Mooney, M.; Moore, C. D.; Mousseau, J.; Murrells, R.; Naples, D.; Nienaber, P.; Nowak, J.; Palamara, O.; Paolone, V.; Papavassiliou, V.; Pate, S. F.; Pavlovic, Z.; Piasetzky, E.; Porzio, D.; Pulliam, G.; Qian, X.; Raaf, J. L.; Rafique, A.; Rochester, L.; Rudolf von Rohr, C.; Russell, B.; Schmitz, D. W.; Schukraft, A.; Seligman, W.; Shaevitz, M. H.; Sinclair, J.; Smith, A.; Snider, E. L.; Soderberg, M.; Söldner-Rembold, S.; Soleti, S. R.; Spentzouris, P.; Spitz, J.; St. John, J.; Strauss, T.; Szelc, A. M.; Tagg, N.; Terao, K.; Thomson, M.; Toups, M.; Tsai, Y.-T.; Tufanli, S.; Usher, T.; Van De Pontseele, W.; Van de Water, R. G.; Viren, B.; Weber, M.; Wickremasinghe, D. A.; Wolbers, S.; Wongjirad, T.; Woodruff, K.; Yang, T.; Yates, L.; Zeller, G. P.; Zennamo, J.; Zhang, C.

2018-01-01

The development and operation of liquid-argon time-projection chambers for neutrino physics has created a need for new approaches to pattern recognition in order to fully exploit the imaging capabilities offered by this technology. Whereas the human brain can excel at identifying features in the recorded events, it is a significant challenge to develop an automated, algorithmic solution. The Pandora Software Development Kit provides functionality to aid the design and implementation of pattern-recognition algorithms. It promotes the use of a multi-algorithm approach to pattern recognition, in which individual algorithms each address a specific task in a particular topology. Many tens of algorithms then carefully build up a picture of the event and, together, provide a robust automated pattern-recognition solution. This paper describes details of the chain of over one hundred Pandora algorithms and tools used to reconstruct cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector. Metrics that assess the current pattern-recognition performance are presented for simulated MicroBooNE events, using a selection of final-state event topologies.

Development and Assessment of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center’s Surgical Secondary Events Grading System

PubMed Central

Strong, Vivian E.; Selby, Luke V.; Sovel, Mindy; Disa, Joseph J.; Hoskins, William; DeMatteo, Ronald; Scardino, Peter; Jaques, David P.

2015-01-01

Background Studying surgical secondary events is an evolving effort with no current established system for database design, standard reporting, or definitions. Using the Clavien-Dindo classification as a guide, in 2001 we developed a Surgical Secondary Events database based on grade of event and required intervention to begin prospectively recording and analyzing all surgical secondary events (SSE). Study Design Events are prospectively entered into the database by attending surgeons, house staff, and research staff. In 2008 we performed a blinded external audit of 1,498 operations that were randomly selected to examine the quality and reliability of the data. Results 1,498 of 4,284 operations during the 3rd quarter of 2008 were audited. 79% (N=1,180) of the operations did not have a secondary event while 21% (N=318) of operations had an identified event. 91% (1,365) of operations were correctly entered into the SSE database. 97% (129/133) of missed secondary events were Grades I and II. Three Grade III (2%) and one Grade IV (1%) secondary event were missed. There were no missed Grade 5 secondary events. Conclusion Grade III – IV events are more accurately collected than Grade I – II events. Robust and accurate secondary events data can be collected by clinicians and research staff and these data can safely be used for quality improvement projects and research. PMID:25319579

Development and assessment of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center's Surgical Secondary Events grading system.

PubMed

Strong, Vivian E; Selby, Luke V; Sovel, Mindy; Disa, Joseph J; Hoskins, William; Dematteo, Ronald; Scardino, Peter; Jaques, David P

2015-04-01

Studying surgical secondary events is an evolving effort with no current established system for database design, standard reporting, or definitions. Using the Clavien-Dindo classification as a guide, in 2001 we developed a Surgical Secondary Events database based on grade of event and required intervention to begin prospectively recording and analyzing all surgical secondary events (SSE). Events are prospectively entered into the database by attending surgeons, house staff, and research staff. In 2008 we performed a blinded external audit of 1,498 operations that were randomly selected to examine the quality and reliability of the data. Of 4,284 operations, 1,498 were audited during the third quarter of 2008. Of these operations, 79 % (N = 1,180) did not have a secondary event while 21 % (N = 318) had an identified event; 91 % of operations (1,365) were correctly entered into the SSE database. Also 97 % (129 of 133) of missed secondary events were grades I and II. There were 3 grade III (2 %) and 1 grade IV (1 %) secondary event that were missed. There were no missed grade 5 secondary events. Grade III-IV events are more accurately collected than grade I-II events. Robust and accurate secondary events data can be collected by clinicians and research staff, and these data can safely be used for quality improvement projects and research.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

PubMed Central

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-02-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

PubMed

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

DOE PAGES

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; ...

2017-01-23

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Pandolfi, John M; Connolly, Sean R; Marshall, Dustin J; Cohen, Anne L

2011-07-22

Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.

Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D. J.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2018-03-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28-82 cm), 56 cm (28-96 cm), and 58 cm (37-93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7-8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with ESL event frequency amplification being reduced by about half at most tide gauges. In general, smaller reductions are projected for Small Island Developing States.

Projecting Event-Based Analysis Dates in Clinical Trials: An Illustration Based on the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy (IDEA) Collaboration. Projecting analysis dates for the IDEA collaboration.

PubMed

Renfro, Lindsay A; Grothey, Axel M; Paul, James; Floriani, Irene; Bonnetain, Franck; Niedzwiecki, Donna; Yamanaka, Takeharu; Souglakos, Ioannis; Yothers, Greg; Sargent, Daniel J

2014-12-01

Clinical trials are expensive and lengthy, where success of a given trial depends on observing a prospectively defined number of patient events required to answer the clinical question. The point at which this analysis time occurs depends on both patient accrual and primary event rates, which typically vary throughout the trial's duration. We demonstrate real-time analysis date projections using data from a collection of six clinical trials that are part of the IDEA collaboration, an international preplanned pooling of data from six trials testing the duration of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer, and we additionally consider the hypothetical impact of one trial's early termination of follow-up. In the absence of outcome data from IDEA, monthly accrual rates for each of the six IDEA trials were used to project subsequent trial-specific accrual, while historical data from similar Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) Group trials were used to construct a parametric model for IDEA's primary endpoint, disease-free survival, under the same treatment regimen. With this information and using the planned total accrual from each IDEA trial protocol, individual patient accrual and event dates were simulated and the overall IDEA interim and final analysis times projected. Projections were then compared with actual (previously undisclosed) trial-specific event totals at a recent census time for validation. The change in projected final analysis date assuming early termination of follow-up for one IDEA trial was also calculated. Trial-specific predicted event totals were close to the actual number of events per trial for the recent census date at which the number of events per trial was known, with the overall IDEA projected number of events only off by eight patients. Potential early termination of follow-up by one IDEA trial was estimated to postpone the overall IDEA final analysis date by 9 months. Real-time projection of the final analysis time during a trial, or the overall analysis time during a trial collaborative such as IDEA, has practical implications for trial feasibility when these projections are translated into additional time and resources required.

Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

2001-01-01

The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

Rebuild of the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre (ISC), part 1: 1964-1979

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storchak, Dmitry A.; Harris, James; Brown, Lonn; Lieser, Kathrin; Shumba, Blessing; Verney, Rebecca; Di Giacomo, Domenico; Korger, Edith I. M.

2017-12-01

The data from the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre (ISC) have always been and still remain in demand for a wide range of studies in Geosciences. The unique features of the Bulletin include long-term coverage (1904-present), the most comprehensive set of included seismic data from the majority of permanent seismic networks at any given time in the history of instrumental recording (currently 150) and homogeneity of the data and their representation. In order to preserve this homogeneity, the ISC has followed its own standard seismic event processing procedures that have not substantially changed until the early 2000s. Several considerable and necessary advancements in the ISC data collection and seismic event location procedures have created a need to rebuild the data for preceding years in line with the new procedures. Thus was set up a project to rebuild the ISC Bulletin for the period from the beginning of the ISC data till the end of data year 2010. The project is known as the Rebuild of the ISC Bulletin. From data month of January 2011, the ISC data have already been processed with the fully tested and established new procedures and do not require an alteration. It was inconceivable even to think about such a project for many tens of years, but great advances in computer power and increased support by the ISC Member-Institutions and Sponsors have given us a chance to perform this project. Having obtained a lot of experience on the way, we believe that within a few years the entire period of the ISC data will be reprocessed and extended for the entire period of instrumental seismological recordings from 1904 till present. The purpose of this article is to describe the work on reprocessing the ISC Bulletin data under the Rebuild project. We also announce the release of the rebuilt ISC Bulletin for the period 1964-1979 with all seismic events reprocessed and relocated in line with the modern ISC procedures, 68,000 new events, 255 new stations, 815,000 new seismic phases, more robust and reliable mb and M S magnitude evaluations and the addition of 2700 new M S magnitudes.

Understanding the usage of the Helioviewer Project clients and services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, J.; Zahniy, S.; Mueller, D.; Nicula, B.; Verstringe, F.; Bourgoignie, B.; Buchlin, E.; Alingery, P.

2017-12-01

The Helioviewer Project enables visual exploration of the Sun and the inner heliosphere for everyone, everywhere via intuitive interfaces and novel technology. The project mainly develops two clients, helioviewer.org and JHelioviewer, and the server-side capabilities accessed via those clients. Images from many different ground and space-based sources are currently available from multiple servers. Solar and heliospheric feature and event information, magnetic field extrapolations and important time-series can also be browsed and visualized using Helioviewer Project clients. Users of the Helioviewer Project have made over two million movies and many millions of screenshots since detailed (and anonymous) logging of Helioviewer Project usage was implemented in February 2011. These usage logs are analyzed to give a detailed breakdown on user interaction with solar and heliospheric data via Helioviewer Project clients and services. We present summary statistics on how our users are using our clients and services, which data they are interested in, and how they choose to interact with different data sources. At the poster presentation we will also be soliciting ideas from the community to improve our clients and services.

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

Estimating contact rates at a mass gathering by using video analysis: a proof-of-concept project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rainey, Jeanette J.; Cheriyadat, Anil; Radke, Richard J.

Current approaches for estimating social mixing patterns and infectious disease transmission at mass gatherings have been limited by various constraints, including low participation rates for volunteer-based research projects and challenges in quantifying spatially and temporally accurate person-to-person interactions. We developed a proof-of-concept project to assess the use of automated video analysis for estimating contact rates of attendees of the GameFest 2013 event at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) in Troy, New York. Video tracking and analysis algorithms were used to estimate the number and duration of contacts for 5 attendees during a 3-minute clip from the RPI video. Attendees were consideredmore » to have a contact event if the distance between them and another person was ≤1 meter. Contact duration was estimated in seconds. We also simulated 50 attendees assuming random mixing using a geospatially accurate representation of the same GameFest location. The 5 attendees had an overall median of 2 contact events during the 3-minute video clip (range: 0 6). Contact events varied from less than 5 seconds to the full duration of the 3- minute clip. The random mixing simulation was visualized and presented as a contrasting example. We were able to estimate the number and duration of contacts for five GameFest attendees from a 3-minute video clip that can be compared to a random mixing simulation model at the same location. In conclusion, the next phase will involve scaling the system for simultaneous analysis of mixing patterns from hours-long videos and comparing our results with other approaches for collecting contact data from mass gathering attendees.« less

Estimating contact rates at a mass gathering by using video analysis: a proof-of-concept project

DOE PAGES

Rainey, Jeanette J.; Cheriyadat, Anil; Radke, Richard J.; ...

2014-10-24

Current approaches for estimating social mixing patterns and infectious disease transmission at mass gatherings have been limited by various constraints, including low participation rates for volunteer-based research projects and challenges in quantifying spatially and temporally accurate person-to-person interactions. We developed a proof-of-concept project to assess the use of automated video analysis for estimating contact rates of attendees of the GameFest 2013 event at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) in Troy, New York. Video tracking and analysis algorithms were used to estimate the number and duration of contacts for 5 attendees during a 3-minute clip from the RPI video. Attendees were consideredmore » to have a contact event if the distance between them and another person was ≤1 meter. Contact duration was estimated in seconds. We also simulated 50 attendees assuming random mixing using a geospatially accurate representation of the same GameFest location. The 5 attendees had an overall median of 2 contact events during the 3-minute video clip (range: 0 6). Contact events varied from less than 5 seconds to the full duration of the 3- minute clip. The random mixing simulation was visualized and presented as a contrasting example. We were able to estimate the number and duration of contacts for five GameFest attendees from a 3-minute video clip that can be compared to a random mixing simulation model at the same location. In conclusion, the next phase will involve scaling the system for simultaneous analysis of mixing patterns from hours-long videos and comparing our results with other approaches for collecting contact data from mass gathering attendees.« less

Meteorological tsunamis along the U.S. coastline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, I.; Monserrat, S.; Amores, A.; Dadic, V.; Fine, I.; Horvath, K.; Ivankovic, D.; Marcos, M.; Mihanovic, H.; Pasquet, S.; Rabinovich, A. B.; Sepic, J.; Strelec Mahovic, N.; Whitmore, P.

2012-04-01

Meteotsunamis, or meteorological tsunamis, are atmospherically induced ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band that are found to affect coasts in a destructive way in a number of places in the World Ocean, including the U.S. coastline. The Boothbay Harbor, Maine, in October 2008 and Daytona Beach, Florida, in July 1992 were hit by several meters high waves appearing from "nowhere", and a preliminary assessment pointed to the atmosphere as a possible source for the events. As a need for in-depth analyses and proper qualification of these and other events emerged, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) decided to fund the research, currently carried out within the TMEWS project (Towards a MEteotsunami Warning System along the U.S. coastline). The project structure, planned research activities and first results will be presented here. The first objective of the project is creation of a list of potential meteotsunami events, from catalogues, news and high-resolution sea level data, and their proper assessment with regards to the source, generation and dynamics. The assessment will be based on the research of the various types of ocean (tide gauges, buoys), atmospheric (ground stations, buoys, vertical soundings, reanalyses) and remote sensing (satellites) data and products, supported by the atmospheric and ocean modelling efforts. Based on the earned knowledge, the basis for a meteotsunami warning system, i.e. observational systems and communication needs for early detection of a meteotsunami, will be defined. Finally, meteotsunami warning protocols, procedures and decision matrix will be developed, and tested on historical meteotsunami events. These deliverables are expected also to boost meteotsunami research in other parts of the World Ocean, and to contribute to the creation of an efficient meteotsunami warning systems in different regions of interest, such as Mediterranean Sea, western Japan, Western Australia or other.

Report on Department of Homeland Security Sponsored Research Project at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on Preparation for an Improvised Nuclear Device Event

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

A., B

2008-07-31

Following the events of September 11th, a litany of imaginable horribles was trotted out before an anxious and concerned public. To date, government agencies and academics are still grappling with how to best respond to such catastrophes, and as Senator Lieberman's quote says above, now is the time to plan and prepare for such events. One of the nation's worst fears is that terrorists might detonate an improvised nuclear device (IND) in an American city. With 9/11 serving as the catalyst, the government and many NGOs have invested money into research and development of response capabilities throughout the country. Yet,more » there is still much to learn about how to best respond to an IND event. My summer 2008 internship at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory afforded me the opportunity to look in depth at the preparedness process and the research that has been conducted on this issue. While at the laboratory I was tasked to collect, combine, and process research on how cities and the federal government can best prepare for the horrific prospect of an IND event. Specific projects that I was involved with were meeting reports, research reviews, and a full project report. Working directly with Brooke Buddemeier and his support team at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center, I was able to witness first hand, preparation for meetings with response planners to inform them of the challenges that an IND event would pose to the affected communities. In addition, I supported the Homeland Security Institute team (HSI), which was looking at IND preparation and preparing a Congressional report. I participated in meetings at which local responders expressed their concerns and contributed valuable information to the response plan. I specialized in the psycho-social aspects of an IND event and served as a technical advisor to some of the research groups. Alongside attending and supporting these meetings, I worked on an independent research project which collected information from across disciplines to outline where the state of knowledge on IND response is. In addition, the report looked at meetings that were held over the summer in various cities. The meetings were attended by both federal responders and local responders. The meetings explored issues regarding IND preparation and how to mitigate the effects of an IND detonation. Looking at the research and current preparation activity the report found that the state of knowledge in responding and communicating is a mixed bag. Some aspects of an IND attack are well understood, some are not, but much is left to synthesize. The effects of an IND would be devastating, yet much can be done to mitigate those effects through education, preparation, and research. A major gap in current knowledge is how to effectively communicate with the public before an attack. Little research on the effectiveness of public education has been done, but it is likely that educating the public about the effects of an IND and how to best protect oneself could save many lives.« less

Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William D.; Blake, Reginald; Bowman, Malcolm; Faris, Craig; Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Jacob, Klaus; LeBlanc, Alice; Leichenko, Robin;

Protocol for a nationwide survey of primary health care in China: the China PEACE (Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events) MPP (Million Persons Project) Primary Health Care Survey

PubMed Central

Su, Meng; Zhang, Qiuli; Lu, Jiapeng; Li, Xi; Tian, Na; Wang, Yun; Yip, Winnie; Cheng, Kar Keung; Mensah, George A; Horwitz, Ralph I; Mossialos, Elias; Krumholz, Harlan M; Jiang, Lixin

2017-01-01

Introduction China has pioneered advances in primary health care (PHC) and public health for a large and diverse population. To date, the current state of PHC in China has not been subjected to systematic assessments. Understanding variations in primary care services could generate opportunities for improving the structure and function of PHC. Methods and analysis This paper describes a nationwide PHC study (PEACE MPP Primary Health Care Survey) conducted across 31 provinces in China. The study leverages an ongoing research project, the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (PEACE) Million Persons Project (MPP). It employs an observational design with document acquisition and abstraction and in-person interviews. The study will collect data and original documents on the structure and financing of PHC institutions and the adequacy of the essential medicines programme; the education, training and retention of the PHC workforce; the quality of care; and patient satisfaction with care. The study will provide a comprehensive assessment of current PHC services and help determine gaps in access and quality of care. All study instruments and documents will be deposited in the Document Bank as an open-access source for other researchers. Ethics and dissemination The central ethics committee at the China National Centre for Cardiovascular Disease (NCCD) approved the study. Written informed consent has been obtained from all patients. Findings will be disseminated in future peer reviewed papers, and will inform strategies aimed at improving the PHC in China. Trial registration number NCT02953926 PMID:28851781

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two methodologies are statistically compared and evaluated. The comparison between the historic event generated by the model and the observed event will give information on the realism of the model for this event. The comparison between the delta transformation method and the future simulation will provide information on how the dynamics would affect the precipitation field, as compared to the statistical method.

Measurements and Modeling of Radiation Exposure Due to Solar Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, P.; Conrad Wp6-Sgb Team

Dose assessment procedures of cosmic radiation to aircraft crew are introduced in most of the European countries according the corresponding European directive and national regulations 96 29 Euratom However the radiation exposure due to solar particle events is still a matter of scientific research Several in-flight measurements were performed during solar storm conditions First models to estimate the exposure due to solar particle events were discussed previously Recently EURADOS European Radiation Dosimetry Group http www eurados org started to coordinate research activities in model improvements for dose assessment of solar particle events The coordinated research is a work package of the European research project CONRAD Coordinated Network for Radiation Dosimetry on complex mixed radiation fields at workplaces Major aim of sub group B of that work package is the validation of models for dose assessment of solar particle events using data from neutron ground level monitors in-flight measurement results obtained during a solar particle event and proton satellite data The paper describes the current status of obtainable solar storm measurements and gives an overview of the existing models for dose assessment of solar particle events in flight altitudes

Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model.

PubMed

Trinh, T; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Ercan, A; Carr, K

2017-05-15

Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to the extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by the development of a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic framework based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model (Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model; WEHY-HCM) to generate thirteen equally likely future water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to the current water demand for the detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with more severe and longer future drought events in some future scenarios. An important advantage of the proposed approach to the probabilistic analysis of future droughts is that it provides the drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent Advances in Atmospheric, Solar-Terrestrial Physics and Space Weather From a North-South network of scientists [2006-2016] PART B : Results and Capacity Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amory-Mazaudier, C.; Fleury, R.; Petitdidier, M.; Soula, S.; Masson, F.; Davila, J.; Doherty, P.; Elias, A.; Gadimova, S.; Makela, J.; Nava, B.; Radicella, S.; Richardson, J.; Touzani, A.; Girgea Team

2017-12-01

This paper reviews scientific advances achieved by a North-South network between 2006 and 2016. These scientific advances concern solar terrestrial physics, atmospheric physics and space weather. This part B is devoted to the results and capacity building. Our network began in 1991, in solar terrestrial physics, by our participation in the two projects: International Equatorial Electrojet Year IEEY [1992-1993] and International Heliophysical Year IHY [2007-2009]. These two projects were mainly focused on the equatorial ionosphere in Africa. In Atmospheric physics our research focused on gravity waves in the framework of the African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analysis project n°1 [2005-2009 ], on hydrology in the Congo river basin and on lightning in Central Africa, the most lightning part of the world. In Vietnam the study of a broad climate data base highlighted global warming. In space weather, our results essentially concern the impact of solar events on global navigation satellite system GNSS and on the effects of solar events on the circulation of electric currents in the earth (GIC). This research began in the framework of the international space weather initiative project ISWI [2010-2012]. Finally, all these scientific projects have enabled young scientists from the South to publish original results and to obtain positions in their countries. These projects have also crossed disciplinary boundaries and defined a more diversified education which led to the training of specialists in a specific field with knowledge of related scientific fields.

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2011-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

On the powerful use of simulations in the quake-catcher network to efficiently position low-cost earthquake sensors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, K.; Estrada, T.; Taufer, M.; Lawrence, J.; Cochran, E.

2011-01-01

The Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) uses low-cost sensors connected to volunteer computers across the world to monitor seismic events. The location and density of these sensors' placement can impact the accuracy of the event detection. Because testing different special arrangements of new sensors could disrupt the currently active project, this would best be accomplished in a simulated environment. This paper presents an accurate and efficient framework for simulating the low cost QCN sensors and identifying their most effective locations and densities. Results presented show how our simulations are reliable tools to study diverse scenarios under different geographical and infrastructural constraints. ?? 2011 IEEE.

Quality improvement project to reduce infiltration and extravasation events in a pediatric hospital.

PubMed

Tofani, Barbara F; Rineair, Sylvia A; Gosdin, Craig H; Pilcher, Patricia M; McGee, Susan; Varadarajan, Kartik R; Schoettker, Pamela J

2012-12-01

A safety event response team at Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center developed and tested improvement strategies to reduce peripheral intravenous (PIV) infiltration and extravasation injuries. Improvement activities included development of the touch-look-compare method for hourly PIV site assessment, staff education and mandatory demonstration of PIV site assessment, and performance monitoring and sharing of compliance results. We observed a significant reduction in the injury rate immediately following implementation of the interventions that corresponded with monitoring compliance in performing hourly assessments on patients with a PIV, but this was not sustained. The team is currently examining other strategies to reduce PIV injuries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Family presence during trauma activations and medical resuscitations in a pediatric emergency department: an evidence-based practice project.

PubMed

Kingsnorth, Jennifer; O'Connell, Karen; Guzzetta, Cathie E; Edens, Jacki Curreri; Atabaki, Shireen; Mecherikunnel, Anne; Brown, Kathleen

2010-03-01

The existing family presence literature indicates that implementation of a family presence policy can result in positive outcomes. The purpose of our evidence-based practice project was to evaluate a family presence intervention using the 6 A's of the evidence cycle (ask, acquire, appraise, apply, analyze, and adopt/adapt). For step 1 (ask), we propose the following question: Is it feasible to implement a family presence intervention during trauma team activations and medical resuscitations in a pediatric emergency department using national guidelines to ensure appropriate family member behavior and uninterrupted patient care? Regarding steps 2 through 4 (acquire, appraise, and apply), our demonstration project was conducted in a pediatric emergency department during the implementation of a new family presence policy. Our family presence intervention incorporated current appraisal of literature and national guidelines including family screening, family preparation, and use of family presence facilitators. We evaluated whether it was feasible to implement the steps of our intervention and whether the intervention was safe in ensuring uninterrupted patient care. With regard to step 5 (analyze), family presence was evaluated in 106 events, in which 96 families were deemed appropriate and chose to be present. Nearly all families (96%) were screened before entering the room, and all were deemed appropriate candidates. Facilitators guided the family during all events. One family presence event was terminated. In all cases patient care was not interrupted. Regarding step 6 (adopt/adapt), our findings document the feasibility of implementing a family presence intervention in a pediatric emergency department while ensuring uninterrupted patient care. We have adopted family presence as a standard practice. This project can serve as the prototype for others. Copyright (c) 2010 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Shoaling Internal Tides on Benthic Exchange Events and Near-Boundary Mixing Along the Continental Shelf

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202...4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2...column currents, turbidity, and turbulence potentially have a large effect on divers and subsurface operating vehicles. Further research is required

Progress On Neutrino-Proton Neutral-Current Scattering In MicroBooNE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pate, Stephen

2017-01-16

The MicroBooNE Experiment at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, an 89-ton active mass liquid argon time projection chamber, affords a unique opportunity to observe low-more » $Q^2$ neutral-current neutrino-proton scattering events. Neutral-current neutrino-proton scattering at $Q^2 < 1$ GeV$^2$ is dominated by the proton's axial form factor, which can be written as a combination of contributions from the up, down, and strange quarks: $$G_A(Q^2) = \\frac{1}{2}[-G_A^u(Q^2)+G_A^d(Q^2)+G_A^s(Q^2)]$$. The contribution from up and down quarks has been established in past charged-current measurements. The contribution from strange quarks at low $Q^2$ remains unmeasured; this is of great interest since the strange quark contribution to the proton spin can be determined from the low-$Q^2$ behavior: $$\\Delta S = G_A^s(Q^2=0)$$. MicroBooNE began operating in the Booster Neutrino Beam in October 2015. I will present the status in observing isolated proton tracks in the MicroBooNE detector as a signature for neutral-current neutrino-proton events. The sensitivity of the MicroBooNE experiment for measuring the strange quark contribution to the proton spin will be discussed.« less

Creation of the Naturalistic Engagement in Secondary Tasks (NEST) distracted driving dataset.

PubMed

Owens, Justin M; Angell, Linda; Hankey, Jonathan M; Foley, James; Ebe, Kazutoshi

2015-09-01

Distracted driving has become a topic of critical importance to driving safety research over the past several decades. Naturalistic driving data offer a unique opportunity to study how drivers engage with secondary tasks in real-world driving; however, the complexities involved with identifying and coding relevant epochs of naturalistic data have limited its accessibility to the general research community. This project was developed to help address this problem by creating an accessible dataset of driver behavior and situational factors observed during distraction-related safety-critical events and baseline driving epochs, using the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) naturalistic dataset. The new NEST (Naturalistic Engagement in Secondary Tasks) dataset was created using crashes and near-crashes from the SHRP2 dataset that were identified as including secondary task engagement as a potential contributing factor. Data coding included frame-by-frame video analysis of secondary task and hands-on-wheel activity, as well as summary event information. In addition, information about each secondary task engagement within the trip prior to the crash/near-crash was coded at a higher level. Data were also coded for four baseline epochs and trips per safety-critical event. 1,180 events and baseline epochs were coded, and a dataset was constructed. The project team is currently working to determine the most useful way to allow broad public access to the dataset. We anticipate that the NEST dataset will be extraordinarily useful in allowing qualified researchers access to timely, real-world data concerning how drivers interact with secondary tasks during safety-critical events and baseline driving. The coded dataset developed for this project will allow future researchers to have access to detailed data on driver secondary task engagement in the real world. It will be useful for standalone research, as well as for integration with additional SHRP2 data to enable the conduct of more complex research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Student-to-Scientist (S2S) via the PACA Project: Connecting Astronomers, Educators and Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanamandra-Fisher, P. A.

2015-12-01

Student to Scientist (S2S), provides pathways for observational and research tools for K-12 and undergraduate students to improve science proficiency through conducting real scientific observations. Our approach lies in the integration of professional and amateur astronomers, educators, students, and communicators to identify multiple paths for the student to become a scientist. I report on the ensuing project, also known as the PACA Project, which is an ecosystem of various activities that take advantage of the social media and immediate connectivity amongst amateur astronomers worldwide and that can be galvanized to participate in a given observing campaign. The PACA Project has participated in organized campaigns such as NASA Comet ISON Observing Campaign in 2013; NASA Comet Integrated Observations Campaign to observe Comet Siding Spring as it flew by very close to Mars on 19 October 2014. Currently the PACA Project is involved in the Ground-based Amateur campaign to observer ESA/Rosetta mission's target, 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (CG) that is en route to its perihelion on 13 August 2015 (at the time of abstract submission). The PACA Project provides access to the professional community and the student/educator and informal/public communities via various social media like Facebook, Twitter, Flickr, Pinterest, Vimeo, Google+. With the popularity of mobile platforms and instant connections with other peers globally, the multi-faceted social universe has become a vital part of engagement of multiple communities. The PACA project currently has initiated a Comet Tails and Disconnection Events campaign to relate to the changing solar wind conditions. Other PACA projects include Saturn Solstice 2017 and outreach projects with Astroproject (India). These and other citizen-science enabled activities and their integration with S2S project will be discussed.

The Effect of Project Exhibition Event on Physics Success and Prospective Teachers' Opinions about Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Güven Yildirim, Ezgi; Köklükaya, Ayse Nesibe

2018-01-01

The purposes of this study were first to investigate the effects of the project-based learning (PBL) method and project exhibition event on the success of physics teacher candidates, and second, to reveal the experiment group students' views toward this learning method and project exhibition. The research model called explanatory mixed method, in…

Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate scenarios.

Decadal covariability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Katia; Giannini, Alessandra; Verchot, Louis; Baethgen, Walter; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel

2015-08-01

The unusual severity and return time of the 2005 and 2010 dry-season droughts in western Amazon is attributed partly to decadal climate fluctuations and a modest drying trend. Decadal variability of western Amazon hydroclimate is highly correlated to the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) north-south gradient (NSG). Shifts of dry and wet events frequencies are also related to the NSG phase, with a 66% chance of 3+ years of dry events per decade when NSG > 0 and 19% when NSG < 0. The western Amazon and NSG decadal covariability is well reproduced in general circulation models (GCMs) historical (HIST) and preindustrial control (PIC) experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The HIST and PIC also reproduce the shifts in dry and wet events probabilities, indicating potential for decadal predictability based on GCMs. Persistence of the current NSG positive phase favors above normal frequency of western Amazon dry events in coming decades.

DART -- Data acquisition for the next generation of Fermilab fixed target experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oleynik, G.; Anderson, J.; Appleton, L.

1994-02-01

DART is the name of the data acquisition effort for Fermilab experiments taking data in the '94--'95 time frame and beyond. Its charge is to provide a common system of hardware and software, which can be easily configured and extended to meet the wide range of data acquisition requirements of the experiments. Its strategy is to provide incrementally functional data acquisition systems to the experiments at frequent intervals to support the ongoing DA activities of the experiments. DART is a collaborative development effort between the experimenters and the Fermilab Computing Division. Experiments collaborating in DART cover a range of requirementsmore » from 400 Kbytes/sec event readout using a single DA processor, to 200 Mbytes/sec event readout involving 10 parallel readout streams, 10 VME event building planes and greater than 1,000 MIPs of event filter processing. The authors describe the requirements, architecture, and plans for the project and report on its current status.« less

MOA-2012-BLG-505Lb: A Super-Earth-mass Planet That Probably Resides in the Galactic Bulge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagakane, M.; Sumi, T.; Koshimoto, N.; Bennett, D. P.; Bond, I. A.; Rattenbury, N.; Suzuki, D.; Abe, F.; Asakura, Y.; Barry, R.; Bhattacharya, A.; Donachie, M.; Fukui, A.; Hirao, Y.; Itow, Y.; Li, M. C. A.; Ling, C. H.; Masuda, K.; Matsubara, Y.; Matsuo, T.; Muraki, Y.; Ohnishi, K.; Ranc, C.; Saito, To.; Sharan, A.; Shibai, H.; Sullivan, D. J.; Tristram, P. J.; Yamada, T.; Yonehara, A.; MOA Collaboration

2017-07-01

We report the discovery of a super-Earth-mass planet in the microlensing event MOA-2012-BLG-505. This event has the second shortest event timescale of t E = 10 ± 1 days where the observed data show evidence of a planetary companion. Our 15 minute high cadence survey observation schedule revealed the short subtle planetary signature. The system shows the well known close/wide degeneracy. The planet/host-star mass ratio is q = 2.1 × 10-4 and the projected separation normalized by the Einstein radius is s = 1.1 or 0.9 for the wide and close solutions, respectively. We estimate the physical parameters of the system by using a Bayesian analysis and find that the lens consists of a super-Earth with a mass of {6.7}-3.6+10.7 {M}\\oplus orbiting around a brown dwarf or late-M-dwarf host with a mass of {0.10}-0.05+0.16 {M}⊙ with a projected star-planet separation of {0.9}-0.2+0.3 {au}. The system is at a distance of 7.2 ± 1.1 kpc, I.e., it is likely to be in the Galactic bulge. The small angular Einstein radius (θ E = 0.12 ± 0.02 mas) and short event timescale are typical for a low-mass lens in the Galactic bulge. Such low-mass planetary systems in the Bulge are rare because the detection efficiency of planets in short microlensing events is relatively low. This discovery may suggest that such low-mass planetary systems are abundant in the Bulge and currently on-going high cadence survey programs will detect more such events and may reveal an abundance of such planetary systems.

Hydrology of Fritchie Marsh, coastal Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuniansky, E.L.

1985-01-01

Fritchie Marsh, near Slidell, Louisiana, is being considered as a disposal site for sewage effluent. A two-dimensional, finite element, surface water modeling systems was used to solve the shallow water equations for flow. Factors affecting flow patterns are channel locations, inlets, outlets, islands, marsh vegetation, marsh geometry, stage of the West Pearl River, flooding over the lower Pearl River basin, gravity tides, wind-induced currents, and sewage discharge to the marsh. Four steady-state simulations were performed for two hydrologic events at two rates of sewage discharge. The events, near tide with no wind or rain and neap tide with a tide differential across the marsh, were selected as worst-case events for sewage effluent dispersion and were assumed as steady state events. Because inflows and outflows to the marsh are tidally affected, steady state simulations cannot fully define the hydraulic characteristics of the marsh for all hydrologic events. Model results and field data indicate that, during near tide with little or no rain, large parts of the marsh are stagnant; and sewage effluent, at existing and projected flows, has minimal effect on marsh flows. (USGS)

Projecting Event-Based Analysis Dates in Clinical Trials: An Illustration Based on the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy (IDEA) Collaboration. Projecting analysis dates for the IDEA collaboration

PubMed Central

Renfro, Lindsay A.; Grothey, Axel M.; Paul, James; Floriani, Irene; Bonnetain, Franck; Niedzwiecki, Donna; Yamanaka, Takeharu; Souglakos, Ioannis; Yothers, Greg; Sargent, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

Purpose Clinical trials are expensive and lengthy, where success of a given trial depends on observing a prospectively defined number of patient events required to answer the clinical question. The point at which this analysis time occurs depends on both patient accrual and primary event rates, which typically vary throughout the trial's duration. We demonstrate real-time analysis date projections using data from a collection of six clinical trials that are part of the IDEA collaboration, an international preplanned pooling of data from six trials testing the duration of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer, and we additionally consider the hypothetical impact of one trial's early termination of follow-up. Patients and Methods In the absence of outcome data from IDEA, monthly accrual rates for each of the six IDEA trials were used to project subsequent trial-specific accrual, while historical data from similar Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) Group trials were used to construct a parametric model for IDEA's primary endpoint, disease-free survival, under the same treatment regimen. With this information and using the planned total accrual from each IDEA trial protocol, individual patient accrual and event dates were simulated and the overall IDEA interim and final analysis times projected. Projections were then compared with actual (previously undisclosed) trial-specific event totals at a recent census time for validation. The change in projected final analysis date assuming early termination of follow-up for one IDEA trial was also calculated. Results Trial-specific predicted event totals were close to the actual number of events per trial for the recent census date at which the number of events per trial was known, with the overall IDEA projected number of events only off by eight patients. Potential early termination of follow-up by one IDEA trial was estimated to postpone the overall IDEA final analysis date by 9 months. Conclusions Real-time projection of the final analysis time during a trial, or the overall analysis time during a trial collaborative such as IDEA, has practical implications for trial feasibility when these projections are translated into additional time and resources required. PMID:26989447

Making Culverts Great Again: Modeling Road Culvert Vulnerability to Assist Prioritization of Local Infrastructure Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, D.; Walter, M. T.; Watkins, L.; Kaufman, Z.; Meyer, A.; Mahaney, M.

2016-12-01

The concurrent threats posed by climate change and aging infrastructure have become of increasing concern in recent years. In the Northeastern US, storms such as Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather events, which are projected to become more frequent under future climate change scenarios. Road culverts are one type of infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to such threats. Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensuring a safe and reliable transportation network. Much of the responsibility for designing and maintaining road culverts lies at the local level, but many local governments lack the resources to quantify the vulnerability of their culverts to major storms. This study contributes a model designed to assist local governments in rapidly assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of culverts and identifies common characteristics of vulnerable culverts. Model inputs include culvert geometry and location data collected by trained local field teams. The model uses custom tools created in ArcGIS and Python to determine the maximum return period storm that each culvert can safely convey under current and projected future rainfall regimes. As a demonstration, over 1000 culverts in New York State were modeled. It was found that a significant percentage of modeled culverts failed to convey the current 5 year return period storm event (deemed a failure) and this percentage increased under projected future rainfall conditions. The model results were analyzed to determine correlations between culvert characteristics and failure. Characteristics investigated included watershed size, road type (state, county or local), affluence of the surrounding area and suitability for aquatic organism passage. Results from this study can be used by local governments to quantify and characterize the vulnerability of current infrastructure and prioritize future infrastructure investment.

Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

2017-04-01

Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.

Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

2013-04-01

The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/105 and 0.127/105 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/105 and 0.399/105. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

Modelling Extreme Events (Hurricanes) at the Seafloor in the Gulf of Mexico:

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syvitski, J. P.; Jenkins, C. J.; Meiburg, E. H.; Radhakrishnan, S.; Harris, C. K.; Arango, H.; Kniskern, T. A.; Hutton, E.; Auad, G.

2016-02-01

The subsea infrastructure of the N Gulf of Mexico is exposed to risks of seabed failure and flowage under extreme storm events. Numerical assessments of the likelihood, location and severity of those phenomena would help in planning. A project under BOEM, couples advanced modelling modules in order to begin such a system. The period 2008-10 was used for test data, covering hurricanes Gustav and Ike in the Mississippi to De Soto Canyons region. Currents, tides and surface waves were computed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and river discharges from WBMsed. The Community Sediment Transport Model (CSTMS) calculated the concurrent sediment erosion-transport-deposition. Local sediment properties were from the dbSEABED database. The preferred paths of near-bottom sediment flows were based on a stream analysis of the bathymetry. Locations and timings of suspended sediment gravity flow were identified by applying energy flow ignition criterea. Wave-induced mass failure and subbottom liquefaction were assessed using a bevy of marine geotechnical models. The persistence, densities and velocities of turbidity flows yielded by the disruption of the sediment masses were calculated using high-Reynolds Number adaptations of LES/RANS-TURBINS models (Large-Eddy Simulation / Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes). A valuable experience in the project was devising workflows and linkages between these advanced, but independent models. We thank H Arango, T Kniskern, J Birchler and S Radhakrishnan for their help in this. Results: as known, much of the shelf sediment mantle is suspended and/or moved during hurricanes. Many short-lived gravity-flow ignitions happen on the shelf; only those at the shelf edge will ignite into fast, erosive currents. Sediment patchiness and vagaries of hurricane path mean that the pattern alters from event to event. To understand the impacts on infrastructure, a numerical process-based modelling approach will be essential - along the lines we explored.

Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

2016-01-01

Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

A modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures in multi-hazard environments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Gearhart, Jared Lee; Jones, Dean A.

Currently, much of protection planning is conducted separately for each infrastructure and hazard. Limited funding requires a balance of expenditures between terrorism and natural hazards based on potential impacts. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project that created a modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures focused on multiple hazards, including terrorism. To develop this framework, three modeling elements were integrated: natural hazards, terrorism, and interdependent infrastructures. For natural hazards, a methodology was created for specifying events consistent with regional hazards. For terrorism, we modeled the terrorists actions based on assumptions regardingmore » their knowledge, goals, and target identification strategy. For infrastructures, we focused on predicting post-event performance due to specific terrorist attacks and natural hazard events, tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with various examples, including protection of electric power, roadway, and hospital networks.« less

Rejection of Alpha Surface Background in Non-scintillating Bolometric Detectors: The ABSuRD Project

DOE PAGES

Biassoni, M.; Brofferio, C.; Bucci, C.; ...

2016-01-14

Due to their excellent energy resolution values and the vast choice of possible materials, bolometric detectors are currently widely used in the physics of rare events. A limiting aspect for bolometers rises from their inability to discriminate among radiation types or surface from bulk events. It has been demonstrated that the main limitation to sensitivity for purely bolometric detectors is represented by surface alpha contaminations, causing a continuous background that cannot be discriminated. A new scintillation based technique for the rejection of surface alpha background in non- scintillating bolometric experiments is proposed in this work. The idea is to combinemore » a scintillating and a high sensitivity photon detector with a non- scintillating absorber. Finally, we present results showing the possibility to reject events due to alpha decay at or nearby the surface of the crystal.« less

Visualizing Time Projection Chamber Data for Education and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, Jacob

2017-09-01

The widespread availability of portable computers in the form of smartphones provides a unique opportunity to introduce scientific concepts to a broad audience, for the purpose of education, or for the purpose of sharing exciting developments and research. Unity, a free game development platform, has been used to develop a program to visualize 3-D events from a Time Projection Chamber (TPC). The program can be presented as a Virtual Reality (VR) application on a smartphone, which can serve as a standalone demonstration for interested individuals, or as a resource for educators. An interactive experience to watch nuclear events unfold demonstrates the principles of particle detection with a TPC, as well as providing information about the particles present. Different kinds of reactions can be showcased. The current state of tools within this program for outreach and educational purposes will be highlighted and presented in this poster, along with key design concerns and optimizations necessary for running an interactive VR app. The events highlighted in this program are from the S πRIT TPC, but the program can be applied to other 3-D detectors. This work is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Grant Nos. DE-SC0014530, DE-NA0002923 and US NSF under Grant No. PHY-1565546.

Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

PubMed

Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-26

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.

Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

PubMed Central

Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-01

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

Simulating the Response of Urban Water Quality to Climate and Land Use Change in Partially Urbanized Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

Urban stream quality is particularly susceptible to extreme precipitation events and land use change. Although the projected effects of extreme events and land use change on hydrology have been resonably well studied, the impacts on urban water quality have not been widely examined due in part to the scale mismatch between global climate models and the spatial scales required to represent urban hydrology and water quality signals. Here we describe a grid-based modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and urban water quality module adpated from EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Using the model system, we evaluate, for four partially urbanized catchments within the Puget Sound basin, urban water quality under current climate conditions, and projected potential changes in urban water quality associated with future changes in climate and land use. We examine in particular total suspended solids, toal nitrogen, total phosphorous, and coliform bacteria, with catchment representations at the 150-meter spatial resolution and the sub-daily timestep. We report long-term streamflow and water quality predictions in response to extreme precipitation events of varying magnitudes in the four partially urbanized catchments. Our simulations show that urban water quality is highly sensitive to both climatic and land use change.

Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

2015-01-01

Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

The Pandora multi-algorithm approach to automated pattern recognition of cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Acciarri, R.; Adams, C.; An, R.

The development and operation of Liquid-Argon Time-Projection Chambers for neutrino physics has created a need for new approaches to pattern recognition in order to fully exploit the imaging capabilities offered by this technology. Whereas the human brain can excel at identifying features in the recorded events, it is a significant challenge to develop an automated, algorithmic solution. The Pandora Software Development Kit provides functionality to aid the design and implementation of pattern-recognition algorithms. It promotes the use of a multi-algorithm approach to pattern recognition, in which individual algorithms each address a specific task in a particular topology. Many tens ofmore » algorithms then carefully build up a picture of the event and, together, provide a robust automated pattern-recognition solution. This paper describes details of the chain of over one hundred Pandora algorithms and tools used to reconstruct cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector. Metrics that assess the current pattern-recognition performance are presented for simulated MicroBooNE events, using a selection of final-state event topologies.« less

The Pandora multi-algorithm approach to automated pattern recognition of cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector

DOE PAGES

Acciarri, R.; Adams, C.; An, R.; ...

2018-01-29

The development and operation of Liquid-Argon Time-Projection Chambers for neutrino physics has created a need for new approaches to pattern recognition in order to fully exploit the imaging capabilities offered by this technology. Whereas the human brain can excel at identifying features in the recorded events, it is a significant challenge to develop an automated, algorithmic solution. The Pandora Software Development Kit provides functionality to aid the design and implementation of pattern-recognition algorithms. It promotes the use of a multi-algorithm approach to pattern recognition, in which individual algorithms each address a specific task in a particular topology. Many tens ofmore » algorithms then carefully build up a picture of the event and, together, provide a robust automated pattern-recognition solution. This paper describes details of the chain of over one hundred Pandora algorithms and tools used to reconstruct cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector. Metrics that assess the current pattern-recognition performance are presented for simulated MicroBooNE events, using a selection of final-state event topologies.« less

Online training delivery in meteorological continued education and training: Eumetcal experiences & plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siili, Tero; Haga, Lisa; Neitiniemi-Upola, Leena

2013-04-01

Eumetcal is the Education and Training (E & T) project of EUMETNET - the collaboration organ­isation of European National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) - with emphasis on Computer Assisted Learning (CAL) from the project's inception in 2002. Finnish Meteorological Institute has been assigned to manage the Eumetcal project since the onset of the project's pilot phase. Participat­ing NMHSs cover most of Europe, their number exceeds 20 and the scales and scopes of their in-house E & T activities vary widely. Eumetcal also collaborates with a number of E & T organisations in Europe and worldwide. Eumetcal's target group includes the meteorological staff and E & T personnel of the participant NMHSs; the target group is hence geographically widely distributed. The subject matters covered include not only scientific and technical skills and competencies, but also other types of competen­cies relevant to NMHSs' staff. Eumetcal's goal and task is to supplement the E & T activities of the participants through collabora­tion and networking, both between project participants and with other E & T organisations. The project also utilises Information and Communications Technologies extensively in delivery of E & T events and materials: Eumetcal is a Virtual Training Organisation and emphasises online and blended E & T events. In the last five years the project has organised or contributed to at least 2-4 E & T events per year. This presentation a) gives an overview of the Eumetcal project and its place among meteorological E & T organisations in Europe and globally, as well as b) describes the E & T events the project has delivered or contributed to in the last years and plans to deliver in 2013. Emphasis will be on the online and blended events and lessons learned from designing and implementing these events and the benefits of using online training.

Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, Karin; Kapnick, Sarah; Vecchi, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Traditionally, climate change research has focused on changes in mean climate (e.g. global mean temperature, sea level rise, glacier melt) or change in extreme events (e.g. hurricanes, extreme precipitation, droughts, heat waves, wild fires). Though extreme events have the potential to disrupt society, extreme conditions are rare by definition. In contrast, mild weather occurs frequently and many human activities are built around it. Examples of such activities include football games, dog walks, bike rides, and outdoor weddings, but also activities of direct economic impact, e.g. construction work, infrastructure projects, road or rail transportation, air travel, and landscaping projects. Absence of mild weather impacts society in various way, understanding current and future mild weather is therefore of high scientific interest. We present a global analysis of mild weather based on simple and relatable criteria and we explore changes in mild weather occurrence in response to radiative forcing. A high-resolution global climate model, GFDL HiFLOR, is used to allow for investigation of local features and changes. In response to RCP4.5, we find a slight global mean decrease in the annual number of mild days projected both in the near future (-4 d/yr, 2016-2035) and at the end of this century (-10 d/yr, 2081-2100). Projected regional and seasonal redistributions of mild days are substantially greater. Tropical regions are projected to see large decreases, in the mid-latitudes small increases in the number of mild days are projected. Mediterranean climates are projected to see a shift of mild weather away from the local summer to the shoulder seasons. These changes are larger than the interannual variability of mild weather caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, we use reanalysis data to show an observed global decrease in the recent past, and we verify that these observed regional changes in mild weather resemble the projections.

Automated Proton Track Identification in MicroBooNE Using Gradient Boosted Decision Trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodruff, Katherine

MicroBooNE is a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino experiment that is currently running in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. LArTPC technology allows for high-resolution, three-dimensional representations of neutrino interactions. A wide variety of software tools for automated reconstruction and selection of particle tracks in LArTPCs are actively being developed. Short, isolated proton tracks, the signal for low- momentum-transfer neutral current (NC) elastic events, are easily hidden in a large cosmic background. Detecting these low-energy tracks will allow us to probe interesting regions of the proton's spin structure. An effective method for selecting NC elastic events is tomore » combine a highly efficient track reconstruction algorithm to find all candidate tracks with highly accurate particle identification using a machine learning algorithm. We present our work on particle track classification using gradient tree boosting software (XGBoost) and the performance on simulated neutrino data.« less

75 FR 23271 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-03

... proposed information collection project: ``National Hospital Adverse Event Reporting System: Questionnaire...: Proposed Project National Hospital Adverse Event Reporting System: Questionnaire Redesign and Testing As... the impact of the PSOs and the Patient Safety Act on the use of adverse event reporting systems and...

75 FR 38102 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-01

... proposed information collection project: ``National Hospital Adverse Event Reporting System: Questionnaire...: Proposed Project National Hospital Adverse Event Reporting System: Questionnaire Redesign and Testing As... the impact of the PSOs and the Patient Safety Act on the use of adverse event reporting systems and...

Offshore Energy Mapping for Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean: MARINA PLATFORM project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, G.; Galanis, G.; Spyrou, C.; Kalogeri, C.; Adam, A.; Athanasiadis, P.

2012-04-01

Deep offshore ocean energy mapping requires detailed modeling of the wind, wave, tidal and ocean circulation estimations. It requires also detailed mapping of the associated extremes. An important issue in such work is the co-generation of energy (generation of wind, wave, tides, currents) in order to design platforms on an efficient way. For example wind and wave fields exhibit significant phase differences and therefore the produced energy from both sources together requires special analysis. The other two sources namely tides and currents have different temporal scales from the previous two. Another important issue is related to the estimation of the environmental frequencies in order to avoid structural problems. These are issues studied at the framework of the FP7 project MARINA PLATFORM. The main objective of the project is to develop deep water structures that can exploit the energy from wind, wave, tidal and ocean current energy sources. In particular, a primary goal will be the establishment of a set of equitable and transparent criteria for the evaluation of multi-purpose platforms for marine renewable energy. Using these criteria, a novel system set of design and optimisation tools will be produced addressing new platform design, component engineering, risk assessment, spatial planning, platform-related grid connection concepts, all focussed on system integration and reducing costs. The University of Athens group is in charge for estimation and mapping of wind, wave, tidal and ocean current resources, estimate available energy potential, map extreme event characteristics and provide any additional environmental parameter required.

Investigation of the probability of concurrent drought events between the water source and destination regions of China's water diversion project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaomang; Luo, Yuzhou; Yang, Tiantian; Liang, Kang; Zhang, Minghua; Liu, Changming

2015-10-01

In this study, we investigate the concurrent drought probability between the water source and destination regions of the central route of China's South to North Water Diversion Project. We find that both regions have been drying from 1960 to 2013. The estimated return period of concurrent drought events in both regions is 11 years. However, since 1997, these regions have experienced 5 years of simultaneous drought. The projection results of global climate models show that the probability of concurrent drought events is highly likely to increase during 2020 to 2050. The increasing concurrent drought events will challenge the success of the water diversion project, which is a strategic attempt to resolve the water crisis of North China Plain. The data suggest great urgency in preparing adaptive measures to ensure the long-term sustainable operation of the water diversion project.

Drought in the Horn of Africa: attribution of a damaging and repeating extreme event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marthews, Toby; Otto, Friederike; Mitchell, Daniel; Dadson, Simon; Jones, Richard

2015-04-01

We have applied detection and attribution techniques to the severe drought that hit the Horn of Africa in 2014. The short rains failed in late 2013 in Kenya, South Sudan, Somalia and southern Ethiopia, leading to a very dry growing season January to March 2014, and subsequently to the current drought in many agricultural areas of the sub-region. We have made use of the weather@home project, which uses publicly-volunteered distributed computing to provide a large ensemble of simulations sufficient to sample regional climate uncertainty. Based on this, we have estimated the occurrence rates of the kinds of the rare and extreme events implicated in this large-scale drought. From land surface model runs based on these ensemble simulations, we have estimated the impacts of climate anomalies during this period and therefore we can reliably identify some factors of the ongoing drought as attributable to human-induced climate change. The UNFCCC's Adaptation Fund is attempting to support projects that bring about an adaptation to "the adverse effects of climate change", but in order to formulate such projects we need a much clearer way to assess how much climate change is human-induced and how much is a consequence of climate anomalies and large-scale teleconnections, which can only be provided by robust attribution techniques.

The Supernova Early Warning System (SNEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habig, A.; SNEWS Collaboration

2005-05-01

SNEWS is a cooperative effort between the world's neutrino detection experiments to spread the news that a star in our galaxy has just experienced a core-collapse event and is about to become a Type-II Supernova. This project exploits the ˜hours time difference between neutrinos promptly escaping the nascent supernova and photons which originate when the shock wave breaks through the stellar photosphere, to give the world a chance to get ready to observe such an exciting event at the earliest possible time. A coincidence trigger between experiments is used to eliminate potential local false alarms, allowing a rapid, automated alert. SNEWS is currently operational and ready, and this poster presents the procedures in use. SNEWS work is supported by NSF collaborative grant #0302166.

Signal Trees: Communicating Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Through Causal Chain Illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Communicating the attribution of current climate change impacts is a key task for engagment with the general public, news media and policy makers, particularly as climate events unfold in real time. The IPCC WGII in AR5 validated the use of causal chain illustrations to depict attribution of individual climate change impacts. Climate Signals, an online digital platform for mapping and cataloging climate change impacts (launched in May of 2016), explores the use of such illustrations for communicating attribution. The Climate Signals project has developed semi-automated graphing software to produce custom attribution trees for numerous climate change events. This effort offers lessons for engagement of the general public and policy makers in the attribution of climate change impacts.

γ-ray telescopes using conversions to e+e- pairs: event generators, angular resolution and polarimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gros, P.; Bernard, D.

2017-02-01

We benchmark various available event generators in Geant4 and EGS5 in the light of ongoing projects for high angular-resolution pair-conversion telescopes at low energy. We compare the distributions of key kinematic variables extracted from the geometry of the three final state particles. We validate and use as reference an exact generator using the full 5D differential cross-section of the conversion process. We focus in particular on the effect of the unmeasured recoiling nucleus on the angular resolution. We show that for high resolution trackers, the choice of the generator affects the estimated resolution of the telescope. We also show that the current available generator are unable to describe accurately a linearly polarised photon source.

The geological record of ocean acidification.

PubMed

Hönisch, Bärbel; Ridgwell, Andy; Schmidt, Daniela N; Thomas, Ellen; Gibbs, Samantha J; Sluijs, Appy; Zeebe, Richard; Kump, Lee; Martindale, Rowan C; Greene, Sarah E; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Ries, Justin; Zachos, James C; Royer, Dana L; Barker, Stephen; Marchitto, Thomas M; Moyer, Ryan; Pelejero, Carles; Ziveri, Patrizia; Foster, Gavin L; Williams, Branwen

2012-03-02

Ocean acidification may have severe consequences for marine ecosystems; however, assessing its future impact is difficult because laboratory experiments and field observations are limited by their reduced ecologic complexity and sample period, respectively. In contrast, the geological record contains long-term evidence for a variety of global environmental perturbations, including ocean acidification plus their associated biotic responses. We review events exhibiting evidence for elevated atmospheric CO(2), global warming, and ocean acidification over the past ~300 million years of Earth's history, some with contemporaneous extinction or evolutionary turnover among marine calcifiers. Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry-a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO(2) release currently taking place.

Detecting sedimentation impacts to coral reefs resulting from dredging the Port of Miami, Florida USA.

PubMed

Miller, Margaret W; Karazsia, Jocelyn; Groves, Carolyn E; Griffin, Sean; Moore, Tom; Wilber, Pace; Gregg, Kurtis

2016-01-01

The federal channel at Port of Miami, Florida, USA, was dredged between late 2013 and early 2015 to widen and deepen the channel. Due to the limited spatial extent of impact-assessment monitoring associated with the project, the extent of the dredging impacts on surrounding coral reefs has not been well quantified. Previously published remote sensing analyses, as well as agency and anecdotal reports suggest the most severe and largest area of sedimentation occurred on a coral reef feature referred to as the Inner Reef, particularly in the sector north of the channel. A confounding regional warm-water mass bleaching event followed by a coral disease outbreak during this same time frame made the assessment of dredging-related impacts to coral reefs adjacent to the federal channel difficult but still feasible. The current study sought to better understand the sedimentation impacts that occurred in the coral reef environment surrounding Port of Miami, to distinguish those impacts from other regional events or disturbances, and provide supplemental information on impact assessment that will inform discussions on compensatory mitigation requirements. To this end, in-water field assessments conducted after the completion of dredging and a time series analysis of tagged corals photographed pre-, during, and post-dredging, are used to discern dredging-related sedimentation impacts for the Inner Reef north. Results indicate increased sediment accumulation, severe in certain times and places, and an associated biological response (e.g., higher prevalence of partial mortality of corals) extended up to 700 m from the channel, whereas project-associated monitoring was limited to 50 m from the channel. These results can contribute to more realistic prediction of areas of indirect effect from dredging projects needed to accurately evaluate proposed projects and design appropriate compliance monitoring. Dredging projects near valuable and sensitive habitats subject to local and global stressors require monitoring methods capable of discerning non-dredging related impacts and adaptive management to ensure predicted and unpredicted project-related impacts are quantified. Anticipated increasing frequency and intensity of seasonal warming stress also suggests that manageable- but- unavoidable local stressors such as dredging should be partitioned from such seasonal thermal stress events.

Detecting sedimentation impacts to coral reefs resulting from dredging the Port of Miami, Florida USA

PubMed Central

Groves, Carolyn E.; Griffin, Sean; Moore, Tom; Wilber, Pace; Gregg, Kurtis

2016-01-01

The federal channel at Port of Miami, Florida, USA, was dredged between late 2013 and early 2015 to widen and deepen the channel. Due to the limited spatial extent of impact-assessment monitoring associated with the project, the extent of the dredging impacts on surrounding coral reefs has not been well quantified. Previously published remote sensing analyses, as well as agency and anecdotal reports suggest the most severe and largest area of sedimentation occurred on a coral reef feature referred to as the Inner Reef, particularly in the sector north of the channel. A confounding regional warm-water mass bleaching event followed by a coral disease outbreak during this same time frame made the assessment of dredging-related impacts to coral reefs adjacent to the federal channel difficult but still feasible. The current study sought to better understand the sedimentation impacts that occurred in the coral reef environment surrounding Port of Miami, to distinguish those impacts from other regional events or disturbances, and provide supplemental information on impact assessment that will inform discussions on compensatory mitigation requirements. To this end, in-water field assessments conducted after the completion of dredging and a time series analysis of tagged corals photographed pre-, during, and post-dredging, are used to discern dredging-related sedimentation impacts for the Inner Reef north. Results indicate increased sediment accumulation, severe in certain times and places, and an associated biological response (e.g., higher prevalence of partial mortality of corals) extended up to 700 m from the channel, whereas project-associated monitoring was limited to 50 m from the channel. These results can contribute to more realistic prediction of areas of indirect effect from dredging projects needed to accurately evaluate proposed projects and design appropriate compliance monitoring. Dredging projects near valuable and sensitive habitats subject to local and global stressors require monitoring methods capable of discerning non-dredging related impacts and adaptive management to ensure predicted and unpredicted project-related impacts are quantified. Anticipated increasing frequency and intensity of seasonal warming stress also suggests that manageable- but- unavoidable local stressors such as dredging should be partitioned from such seasonal thermal stress events. PMID:27896036

STEEP STREAMS - Solid Transport Evaluation and Efficiency in Prevention: Sustainable Techniques of Rational Engineering and Advanced MethodS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armanini, Aronne; Cardoso, Antonio H.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Bellin, Alberto; Breinl, Korbinian; Canelas, Ricardo B.; Larcher, Michele; Majone, Bruno; Matos, Jorges; Meninno, Sabrina; Nucci, Elena; Rigon, Riccardo; Rosatti, Giorgio; Zardi, Dino

2017-04-01

The STEEP STREAMS (Solid Transport Evaluation and Efficiency in Prevention: Sustainable Techniques of Rational Engineering and Advanced MethodS) project consists of a collaboration among the Universities of Trento, Uppsala and Lisbon, who joined in a consortium within the ERANET Water JPI call WaterWorks2014. The aim of the project is to produce new rational criteria for the design of protection works against debris flows, a phenomenon consisting in hyper-concentrated flows of water and sediments, classified as catastrophic events typical of small mountainous basins (area <10 km2) and triggered by intense rainstorms. Such events are non-stationary phenomena that arise in a very short time, and their recurrence is rather difficult to determine. Compared to flash floods, they are more difficult to anticipate, mostly since they are triggered by convective precipitation events, posing a higher risk of damage and even loss of human lives. These extreme events occur almost annually across Europe, though the formal return period in an exposed site is much larger. Recently, an increase in intensity and frequency of small-scale storm events, leading to extreme solid transport in steep channels, are recognized as one of the effects of climate change. In this context, one of the key challenges of this project is the use of comparatively coarse RCM projections to the small catchments examined in STEEP STREAMS. Given these changes, conventional protection works and their design criteria may not suffice to provide adequate levels of protection to human life and urban settlements. These structures create a storage area upstream the alluvial fans and the settlements, thereby reducing the need of channelization in areas often constrained by urban regulations. To optimize the lamination, and in particular to reduce the peak of solid mass flux, it is necessary that the deposition basin is controlled by a slit check dam, capable of inducing a controlled sedimentation of the solid mas flux. In order to achieve that, reliable design tools are needed. Driftwood represents another important factor increasing the risk, as clogging induced by the vegetal material represents a major problem for the operational reliability of slit check dams. Current procedures in compiling hazardous maps do not account for such effects. The STEEPS STREAMS project aims at developing structural innovative solutions and design criteria reliable to mitigate the impacts of flash floods and debris flows especially in presence of intense woody material transport, typical of mountain catchments.

Protocol for a nationwide survey of primary health care in China: the China PEACE (Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events) MPP (Million Persons Project) Primary Health Care Survey.

PubMed

Su, Meng; Zhang, Qiuli; Lu, Jiapeng; Li, Xi; Tian, Na; Wang, Yun; Yip, Winnie; Cheng, Kar Keung; Mensah, George A; Horwitz, Ralph I; Mossialos, Elias; Krumholz, Harlan M; Jiang, Lixin

2017-08-28

China has pioneered advances in primary health care (PHC) and public health for a large and diverse population. To date, the current state of PHC in China has not been subjected to systematic assessments. Understanding variations in primary care services could generate opportunities for improving the structure and function of PHC. This paper describes a nationwide PHC study (PEACE MPP Primary Health Care Survey) conducted across 31 provinces in China. The study leverages an ongoing research project, the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (PEACE) Million Persons Project (MPP). It employs an observational design with document acquisition and abstraction and in-person interviews. The study will collect data and original documents on the structure and financing of PHC institutions and the adequacy of the essential medicines programme; the education, training and retention of the PHC workforce; the quality of care; and patient satisfaction with care. The study will provide a comprehensive assessment of current PHC services and help determine gaps in access and quality of care. All study instruments and documents will be deposited in the Document Bank as an open-access source for other researchers. The central ethics committee at the China National Centre for Cardiovascular Disease (NCCD) approved the study. Written informed consent has been obtained from all patients. Findings will be disseminated in future peer reviewed papers, and will inform strategies aimed at improving the PHC in China. NCT02953926. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Developing Federated Services within Seismology: IRIS' involvement in the CoopEUS Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahern, T. K.; Trabant, C. M.; Stults, M.

2014-12-01

As a founding member of the CoopEUS initiative, IRIS Data Services has partnered with five data centers in Europe and the UC Berkeley (NCEDC) in the US to implement internationally standardized web services to access seismological data using identical methodologies. The International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) holds commission status within IASPEI/IUGG and as such is the international body that governs data exchange formats and access protocols within seismology. The CoopEUS project involves IRIS and UNAVCO as part of the EarthScope project and the European collaborators are all members of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS). CoopEUS includes one work package that attempts to coordinate data access between EarthScope and EPOS facilities. IRIS has worked with its partners in the FDSN to develop and adopt three key international service standards within seismology. These include 1) fdsn-dataselect, a service that returns time series data in a variety of standard formats, 2) fdsn-station, a service that returns related metadata about a seismic station in stationXML format, and 3) fdsn-event, a service that returns information about earthquakes and other seismic events in QuakeML format. Currently the 5 European data centers supporting these services include the ORFEUS Data Centre in the Netherlands, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany, ETH Zurich in Switzerland, INGV in Rome, Italy, and the RESIF Data Centre in Grenoble France. Presently these seven centres can all be accessed using standardized web services with identical service calls and returns results in standardized ways. IRIS is developing an IRIS federator that will allow a client to seamlessly access information across the federated centers. Details and current status of the IRIS Federator will be presented.

Acceleration, Transport, Forecasting and Impact of solar energetic particles in the framework of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malandraki, Olga; Klein, Karl-Ludwig; Vainio, Rami; Agueda, Neus; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Buetikofer, Rolf; Sarlanis, Christos; Crosby, Norma

2017-04-01

High-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the origin and forecasting of SEP events will be reviewed. Subsequently, we will present the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis) project, its structure, its main scientific objectives and forecasting operational tools, as well as the added value to SEP research both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. The project addresses through multi-frequency observations and simulations the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space to the detection near 1 AU. Furthermore, publicly available software to invert neutron monitor observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with space-borne measurements at lower energies is provided for the first time by HESPERIA. In order to achieve these goals, HESPERIA is exploiting already available large datasets stored in databases such as the neutron monitor database (NMDB) and SEPServer that were developed under EU FP7 projects from 2008 to 2013. Forecasting results of the two novel SEP operational forecasting tools published via the consortium server of 'HESPERIA' will be presented, as well as some scientific key results on the acceleration, transport and impact on Earth of high-energy particles. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

2017-08-01

Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

Climate Change Media Forum - for Enhanced Communication between Journalists and Climate Scientists in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto-Maeda, Y.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Aoyagi-Usui, M.; Fukushi, K.; Tanaka, Y.; Fukuda, H.; Matsumoto, Y.; Asakura, A.; Hiramatsu, A.; Sumi, A.

2011-12-01

For researchers, being reported by mass media is an effective way to share their studies with others, although some have concerns that scientific results are often exaggerated by highlighting sensational parts and ignoring essential results by the media. Obviously, journalists have their own criteria of effective science reporting for their newspapers or magazines which do not necessarily conform to how researchers report their results. Climate Change Media Forum was started in 2009 by researchers specializing in climate science and communication to fill such gaps and enhance communication between climate scientists and journalists as part of a climate change research project funded by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. Since its start, forum events have been held once a year to exchange ideas on reporting of climate change science through mass media. At the first event in March, 2009, we started with learning about what actually the journalists and researchers think about media reports on climate change sciences. Using onsite questionnaire surveys, the participants (39 journalists and 31 researchers) discussed their problems on reporting climate change and what they would like to tell to the public. Some of the survey results suggested that researchers are willing to emphasize more about the conditions and assumptions of studies, while journalists would like to know more about current and short-term impacts. From the second year, two journalists joined the committee to make the events more meaningful for journalists. For the event in March, 2010, three months after COP15 in Copenhagen, the 2 degrees temperature target, which was the only written number on the Copenhagen Accord, was selected as a timely topic. Although researchers understand that a specific target is necessary for setting a concrete pathway, many of them also feel uncomfortable about selecting one single value from the temperature range with uncertainty. After two lectures on the history of the target and possible impacts by the temperature rise, the participants discussed reporting of target selected from data with uncertainty. The third forum event was held in February, 2011, on climate change projections by numerical models. After the lecture on the ongoing projects of climate change prediction for AR5 in Japan, one of the presenters at the press conference on climate change projections for AR4 in 2007 shared his own thoughts on the media reports based on the press conference. In the following session, the researchers and journalists actively discussed how the climate change projection should be reported based on their own "mission" which is conducting reliable research for scientists and writing informative articles for journalists. Through the previous three events, we have obtained sincere comments and suggestions from the participants to improve the communication between journalists and researchers. In the presentation, more comments from the discussions and the survey results of the forum events will be shared.

Slow Earthquake Hunters: A New Citizen Science Project to Identify and Catalog Slow Slip Events in Geodetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlow, N. M.

2017-12-01

Slow Earthquake Hunters is a new citizen science project to detect, catalog, and monitor slow slip events. Slow slip events, also called "slow earthquakes", occur when faults slip too slowly to generate significant seismic radiation. They typically take between a few days and over a year to occur, and are most often found on subduction zone plate interfaces. While not dangerous in and of themselves, recent evidence suggests that monitoring slow slip events is important for earthquake hazards, as slow slip events have been known to trigger damaging "regular" earthquakes. Slow slip events, because they do not radiate seismically, are detected with a variety of methods, most commonly continuous geodetic Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. There is now a wealth of GPS data in some regions that experience slow slip events, but a reliable automated method to detect them in GPS data remains elusive. This project aims to recruit human users to view GPS time series data, with some post-processing to highlight slow slip signals, and flag slow slip events for further analysis by the scientific team. Slow Earthquake Hunters will begin with data from the Cascadia subduction zone, where geodetically detectable slow slip events with a duration of at least a few days recur at regular intervals. The project will then expand to other areas with slow slip events or other transient geodetic signals, including other subduction zones, and areas with strike-slip faults. This project has not yet rolled out to the public, and is in a beta testing phase. This presentation will show results from an initial pilot group of student participants at the University of Missouri, and solicit feedback for the future of Slow Earthquake Hunters.

NASA/USRA high altitude reconnaissance aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Michael; Gudino, Juan; Chen, Kenny; Luong, Tai; Wilkerson, Dave; Keyvani, Anoosh

1990-01-01

At the equator, the ozone layer ranges from approximately 80,000 to 130,000+ feet which is beyond the capabilities of the ER-2, NASA's current high altitude reconnaissance aircraft. This project is geared to designing an aircraft that can study the ozone layer at the equator. This aircraft must be able to cruise at 130,000 lbs. of payload. In addition, the aircraft must have a minimum of a 6,000 mile range. The low Mach number, payload, and long cruising time are all constraints imposed by the air sampling equipment. A pilot must be able to take control in the event of unforseen difficulties. Three aircraft configurations were determined to be the most suitable for meeting the above requirements, a joined-wing, a bi-plane, and a twin-boom conventional airplane. The techniques used have been deemed reasonable within the limits of 1990 technology. The performance of each configuration is analyzed to investigate the feasibility of the project requirements. In the event that a requirement can not be obtained within the given constraints, recommendations for proposal modifications are given.

Advanced Geospatial Hydrodynamic Signals Analysis for Tsunami Event Detection and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbab-Zavar, Banafshe; Sabeur, Zoheir

2013-04-01

Current early tsunami warning can be issued upon the detection of a seismic event which may occur at a given location offshore. This also provides an opportunity to predict the tsunami wave propagation and run-ups at potentially affected coastal zones by selecting the best matching seismic event from a database of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. Nevertheless, it remains difficult and challenging to obtain the rupture parameters of the tsunamigenic earthquakes in real time and simulate the tsunami propagation with high accuracy. In this study, we propose a supporting approach, in which the hydrodynamic signal is systematically analysed for traces of a tsunamigenic signal. The combination of relatively low amplitudes of a tsunami signal at deep waters and the frequent occurrence of background signals and noise contributes to a generally low signal to noise ratio for the tsunami signal; which in turn makes the detection of this signal difficult. In order to improve the accuracy and confidence of detection, a re-identification framework in which a tsunamigenic signal is detected via the scan of a network of hydrodynamic stations with water level sensing is performed. The aim is to attempt the re-identification of the same signatures as the tsunami wave spatially propagates through the hydrodynamic stations sensing network. The re-identification of the tsunamigenic signal is technically possible since the tsunami signal at the open ocean itself conserves its birthmarks relating it to the source event. As well as supporting the initial detection and improving the confidence of detection, a re-identified signal is indicative of the spatial range of the signal, and thereby it can be used to facilitate the identification of certain background signals such as wind waves which do not have as large a spatial reach as tsunamis. In this paper, the proposed methodology for the automatic detection of tsunamigenic signals has been achieved using open data from NOAA with a recorded tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean. The new approach will be tested in the future on other oceanic regions including the Mediteranean Sea and North East Atlantic Ocean zones. Both authors acknowledge that the current research is currently conducted under the TRIDEC IP FP7 project[1] which involves the development of a system of systems for collaborative, complex and critical decision-support in evolving crises. [1] TRIDEC IP ICT-2009.4.3 Intelligent Information Management Project Reference: 258723. http://www.tridec-online.eu/home

Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China.

PubMed

Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/10 5 and 0.127/10 5 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/10 5 and 0.399/10 5 . Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

MUCHFUSS: Status and Highlights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geier, S.; Kupfer, T.; Barlow, B.; Schaffenroth, V.; Fürst, F.; Heuser, C.; Ziegerer, E.; Heber, U.; Marsh, T.; Maxted, P.; Östensen, R.; O'Toole, S.; Gänsicke, B.; Napiwotzki, R.

2014-04-01

The MUCHFUSS project aims at finding sdBs with massive compact companions. Here we report on the current status of our spectroscopic and photometric follow-up campaigns and present some highlight results. We derive orbital solutions of seven new sdB binaries and estimate the fraction of close substellar companions to sdBs. Finally, we present an ultracompact sdB+WD binary as possible progenitor of a thermonuclear supernova and connect it to the only known hypervelocity subdwarf star, which might be the donor remnant of such an event.

Ulysses Data Analysis: Magnetic Topology of Heliospheric Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, Nancy

2001-01-01

In this final technical report on research funded by a NASA grant, a project overview is given by way of summaries on nine published papers. Research has included: 1) Using suprathermal electron data to study heliospheric magnetic structures; 2) Analysis of magnetic clouds, coronal mass ejections (CME), and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS); 3) Analysis of the corotating interaction region (CIR) which develop from interactions between solar wind streams of different velocities; 4) Use of Ulysses data in the interpretation of heliospheric events and phenomena.

Hybrid composites that retain graphite fibers on burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

House, E. E.

1980-01-01

A laboratory scale program was conducted to determine fiber release tendencies of graphite reinforced/resinous matrix composites currently used or projected for use in civil aircraft. In the event of an aircraft crash and burn situation, there is concern that graphite fibers will be released from the composites once the resin matrix is thermally decomposed. Hybridizing concepts aimed at preventing fiber release on burning were postulated and their effectiveness evaluated under fire, impact, and air flow during an aircraft crash.

Annual Report to the Congressional Defense Committees: Status of the Department of Defense’s Business Transformation Efforts

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-15

it began employing LSS, the Department of the Navy (DON) has completed 1,700 Black Belt/Green Belt projects and over 2,000 Kaizen events (i.e...aircraft to an average of 210 days from 390 days. • An LSS Kaizen event for the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) program, focused on reducing...GB Belt projects and over 2,000 Kaizen events. Initial projects were designed to build confidence and gain momentum for success in more complex High

Operation and performance of the EEE network array for the detection of cosmic rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbrescia, M.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Batignani, G.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalò, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; Corvaglia, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Pasquale, S.; Di Giovanni, A.; D'Incecco, M.; Dreucci, M.; Fabbri, F. L.; Fattibene, E.; Ferraro, A.; Frolov, V.; Galeotti, P.; Garbini, M.; Gemme, G.; Gnesi, I.; Grazzi, S.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; La Rocca, P.; Licciulli, F.; Maggiora, A.; Maragoto Rodriguez, O.; Maron, G.; Martelli, B.; Mazziotta, M. N.; Miozzi, S.; Nania, R.; Noferini, F.; Nozzoli, F.; Panareo, M.; Panetta, M. P.; Paoletti, R.; Park, W.; Perasso, L.; Pilo, F.; Piragino, G.; Riggi, F.; Righini, G. C.; Sartorelli, G.; Scapparone, E.; Schioppa, M.; Scribano, A.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Siddi, E.; Squarcia, S.; Stori, L.; Taiuti, M.; Terreni, G.; Visnyei, O. B.; Vistoli, M. C.; Votano, L.; Williams, M. C. S.; Zani, S.; Zichichi, A.; Zuyeuski, R.

2017-02-01

The EEE (Extreme Energy Events) Project is an experiment for the detection of cosmic ray muons by means of a sparse array of telescopes, each made of three Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPC), distributed over all the Italian territory and at CERN. The main scientific goals of the Project are the investigation of the properties of the local muon flux, the detection of Extensive Air Showers (EAS) and the search for long-distance correlations between far telescopes. The Project is also characterized by a strong educational and outreach aspect since the telescopes are managed by teams of students and teachers who had previously constructed them at CERN. In this paper an overall description of the experiment is given, including the design, construction and performance of the telescopes. The operation of the whole array, which currently consists of more than 50 telescopes, is also presented by showing the most recent physics results.

Self-projection in younger and older adults: a study of episodic memory, prospection, and theory of mind.

PubMed

Jarvis, Shoshana N; Miller, Jeremy K

2017-07-01

Self-projection is the ability to orient the self in different places in time and space. Episodic memory, prospection, and theory of mind (ToM) are all cognitive abilities that share an element of self-projection. Previous research has posited that each of these abilities stems from the same neural network. The current study compared performance of cognitively healthy older adults and younger adults on several self-projection tasks to examine the relatedness of these constructs behaviorally. Episodic memory and prospection were measured using an episodic interview task where the participants were asked to remember or imagine events that either had happened in the past or could happen in the future and then gave ratings describing the extent to which they were mentally experiencing the event and from what perspective they viewed it. ToM was measured by asking participants to make judgments regarding the intentions of characters described in stories that involved cognitive, affective, or ironic components. Our results demonstrate that aging influences episodic memory, prospection, and ToM similarly: older adult participants showed declines on each of these measures compared to younger adults. Further, we observed correlations between performance on the measures of episodic memory and prospection as well as between episodic memory and ToM, although no correlation between prospection and ToM was observed after controlling for chronological age. We discuss these results in the light of theories suggesting that each of these abilities is governed by a common brain system.

Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lute, A. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2015-02-01

Projected warming will have significant impacts on snowfall accumulation and melt, with implications for water availability and management in snow-dominated regions. Changes in snowfall extremes are confounded by projected increases in precipitation extremes. Downscaled climate projections from 20 global climate models were bias-corrected to montane Snowpack Telemetry stations across the western United States to assess mid-21st century changes in the mean and variability of annual snowfall water equivalent (SFE) and extreme snowfall events, defined by the 90th percentile of cumulative 3 day SFE amounts. Declines in annual SFE and number of snowfall days were projected for all stations. Changes in the magnitude of snowfall event quantiles were sensitive to historical winter temperature. At climatologically cooler locations, such as in the Rocky Mountains, changes in the magnitude of snowfall events mirrored changes in the distribution of precipitation events, with increases in extremes and less change in more moderate events. By contrast, declines in snowfall event magnitudes were found for all quantiles in warmer locations. Common to both warmer and colder sites was a relative increase in the magnitude of snowfall extremes compared to annual SFE and a larger fraction of annual SFE from snowfall extremes. The coefficient of variation of annual SFE increased up to 80% in warmer montane regions due to projected declines in snowfall days and the increased contribution of snowfall extremes to annual SFE. In addition to declines in mean annual SFE, more frequent low-snowfall years and less frequent high-snowfall years were projected for every station.

[Adverse events management. Methods and results of a development project].

PubMed

Rabøl, Louise Isager; Jensen, Elisabeth Brøgger; Hellebek, Annemarie H; Pedersen, Beth Lilja

2006-11-27

This article describes the methods and results of a project in the Copenhagen Hospital Corporation (H:S) on preventing adverse events. The aim of the project was to raise awareness about patients' safety, test a reporting system for adverse events, develop and test methods of analysis of events and propagate ideas about how to prevent adverse events. H:S developed an action plan and a reporting system for adverse events, founded an organization and developed an educational program on theories and methods of learning from adverse events for both leaders and employees. During the three-year period from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2004, the H:S staff reported 6011 adverse events. In the same period, the organization completed 92 root cause analyses. More than half of these dealt with events that had been optional to report, the other half events that had been mandatory to report. The number of reports and the front-line staff's attitude towards reporting shows that the H:S succeeded in founding a safety culture. Future work should be centred on developing and testing methods that will prevent adverse events from happening. The objective is to suggest and complete preventive initiatives which will help increase patient safety.

A Methodology for the Integration of a Mechanistic Source Term Analysis in a Probabilistic Framework for Advanced Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, Dave; Brunett, Acacia J.; Bucknor, Matthew

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) and Argonne National Laboratory are currently engaged in a joint effort to modernize and develop probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for advanced non-light water reactors. At a high level, the primary outcome of this project will be the development of next-generation PRA methodologies that will enable risk-informed prioritization of safety- and reliability-focused research and development, while also identifying gaps that may be resolved through additional research. A subset of this effort is the development of PRA methodologies to conduct a mechanistic source term (MST) analysis for event sequences that could result in the release ofmore » radionuclides. The MST analysis seeks to realistically model and assess the transport, retention, and release of radionuclides from the reactor to the environment. The MST methods developed during this project seek to satisfy the requirements of the Mechanistic Source Term element of the ASME/ANS Non-LWR PRA standard. The MST methodology consists of separate analysis approaches for risk-significant and non-risk significant event sequences that may result in the release of radionuclides from the reactor. For risk-significant event sequences, the methodology focuses on a detailed assessment, using mechanistic models, of radionuclide release from the fuel, transport through and release from the primary system, transport in the containment, and finally release to the environment. The analysis approach for non-risk significant event sequences examines the possibility of large radionuclide releases due to events such as re-criticality or the complete loss of radionuclide barriers. This paper provides details on the MST methodology, including the interface between the MST analysis and other elements of the PRA, and provides a simplified example MST calculation for a sodium fast reactor.« less

Extreme Value Analysis of hydro meteorological extremes in the ClimEx Large-Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, R. R.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Leduc, M.; Frigon, A.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Many studies show an increase in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the course of climate change. However the contribution of natural variability to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events is not yet settled. A reliable estimate of extreme events is from great interest for water management and public safety. In the course of the ClimEx Project (www.climex-project.org) a new single-model large-ensemble was created by dynamically downscaling the CanESM2 large-ensemble with the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) for an European Domain and a Northeastern North-American domain. By utilizing the ClimEx 50-Member Large-Ensemble (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 Large-Ensemble) a thorough analysis of natural variability in extreme events is possible. Are the current extreme value statistical methods able to account for natural variability? How large is the natural variability for e.g. a 1/100 year return period derived from a 50-Member Large-Ensemble for Europe and Northeastern North-America? These questions should be answered by applying various generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) to the ClimEx Large-Ensemble. Hereby various return levels (5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 60- and 100-years) based on various lengths of time series (20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 1500-years) should be analyzed for the maximum one day precipitation (RX1d), the maximum three hourly precipitation (RX3h) and the streamflow for selected catchments in Europe. The long time series of the ClimEx Ensemble (7500 years) allows us to give a first reliable estimate of the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events.

Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

2015-12-01

We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2) or 2080 (CNRM-CM5); thus, the conditions required for thermobaric instability induced mixing become rare or non-existent in these projections. The results indicate that the frequency of deep water renewal events could change substantially in a warmer future climate, potentially altering the lake ecosystem and water clarity.

Modelling the occurrence of heat waves in maximum and minimum temperatures over Spain and projections for the period 2031-60

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaurrea, J.; Asín, J.; Cebrián, A. C.

2018-02-01

The occurrence of extreme heat events in maximum and minimum daily temperatures is modelled using a non-homogeneous common Poisson shock process. It is applied to five Spanish locations, representative of the most common climates over the Iberian Peninsula. The model is based on an excess over threshold approach and distinguishes three types of extreme events: only in maximum temperature, only in minimum temperature and in both of them (simultaneous events). It takes into account the dependence between the occurrence of extreme events in both temperatures and its parameters are expressed as functions of time and temperature related covariates. The fitted models allow us to characterize the occurrence of extreme heat events and to compare their evolution in the different climates during the observed period. This model is also a useful tool for obtaining local projections of the occurrence rate of extreme heat events under climate change conditions, using the future downscaled temperature trajectories generated by Earth System Models. The projections for 2031-60 under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 are obtained and analysed using the trajectories from four earth system models which have successfully passed a preliminary control analysis. Different graphical tools and summary measures of the projected daily intensities are used to quantify the climate change on a local scale. A high increase in the occurrence of extreme heat events, mainly in July and August, is projected in all the locations, all types of event and in the three scenarios, although in 2051-60 the increase is higher under RCP8.5. However, relevant differences are found between the evolution in the different climates and the types of event, with a specially high increase in the simultaneous ones.

Natural flood management in Southwell (Nottinghamshire, UK): an interdisciplinary approach in a rural-urban catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Josh; Labadz, Jillian; Islam, Mofa; Smith, Amanda; Disney, Andrew; Thorne, Colin

2017-04-01

The town of Southwell (Nottinghamshire, UK) is situated within a rural catchment and has experienced multiple flood events. In summer 2013 an extreme event occurred in which 107.6mm of rain fell within two hours, flooding up to 300 homes. As a result, a voluntary flood action group was established in the community (Southwell Flood Forum). An experimental natural flood management research project has been developed within the Potwell Dyke catchment (above Southwell). This has led to the creation of a catchment partnership of relevant stakeholders (academics, community, statutory bodies, local government and conservation organisations). Prior to intervention, water level monitoring was installed at five locations and flows were gauged for approximately one year. Rainfall data are available from the university weather station within the catchment. Ten large woody debris dams were installed on two of the streams within the catchment in summer 2016. In November, a stream restoration took place to reinstate historic meanders and create online storage in a previously ditched channel reach, together with the construction of five earth bunds in the corners of the fields. These interventions are designed to store and slow water whilst promoting ecological gains. The research takes an interdisciplinary approach. The aims are to assess the extent to which natural food management (NFM) can reduce fluvial flood occurrence but also identify and analyse current barriers to NFM uptake. Interviews with landowners in the catchment have taken place. Practitioners have also been interviewed in order to discuss the barriers to current uptake from an industry perspective. This study therefore not only addresses the evidence gap but also draws upon current barriers to advise future NFM projects. This paper will present preliminary findings from the hydrological monitoring and summarise barriers identified and lessons learned from stakeholder engagement activities.

ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

2017-04-01

The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change. [The authors acknowledge funding for the project from the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection].

Analysis of convection-permitting simulations for capturing heavy rainfall events over Myanmar Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acierto, R. A. E.; Kawasaki, A.

2017-12-01

Perennial flooding due to heavy rainfall events causes strong impacts on the society and economy. With increasing pressures of rapid development and potential for climate change impacts, Myanmar experiences a rapid increase in disaster risk. Heavy rainfall hazard assessment is key on quantifying such disaster risk in both current and future conditions. Downscaling using Regional Climate Models (RCM) such as Weather Research and Forecast model have been used extensively for assessing such heavy rainfall events. However, usage of convective parameterizations can introduce large errors in simulating rainfall. Convective-permitting simulations have been used to deal with this problem by increasing the resolution of RCMs to 4km. This study focuses on the heavy rainfall events during the six-year (2010-2015) wet period season from May to September in Myanmar. The investigation primarily utilizes rain gauge observation for comparing downscaled heavy rainfall events in 4km resolution using ERA-Interim as boundary conditions using 12km-4km one-way nesting method. The study aims to provide basis for production of high-resolution climate projections over Myanmar in order to contribute for flood hazard and risk assessment.

Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens M.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-01-01

Changes in society’s vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

Software Tools Streamline Project Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2009-01-01

Three innovative software inventions from Ames Research Center (NETMARK, Program Management Tool, and Query-Based Document Management) are finding their way into NASA missions as well as industry applications. The first, NETMARK, is a program that enables integrated searching of data stored in a variety of databases and documents, meaning that users no longer have to look in several places for related information. NETMARK allows users to search and query information across all of these sources in one step. This cross-cutting capability in information analysis has exponentially reduced the amount of time needed to mine data from days or weeks to mere seconds. NETMARK has been used widely throughout NASA, enabling this automatic integration of information across many documents and databases. NASA projects that use NETMARK include the internal reporting system and project performance dashboard, Erasmus, NASA s enterprise management tool, which enhances organizational collaboration and information sharing through document routing and review; the Integrated Financial Management Program; International Space Station Knowledge Management; Mishap and Anomaly Information Reporting System; and management of the Mars Exploration Rovers. Approximately $1 billion worth of NASA s projects are currently managed using Program Management Tool (PMT), which is based on NETMARK. PMT is a comprehensive, Web-enabled application tool used to assist program and project managers within NASA enterprises in monitoring, disseminating, and tracking the progress of program and project milestones and other relevant resources. The PMT consists of an integrated knowledge repository built upon advanced enterprise-wide database integration techniques and the latest Web-enabled technologies. The current system is in a pilot operational mode allowing users to automatically manage, track, define, update, and view customizable milestone objectives and goals. The third software invention, Query-Based Document Management (QBDM) is a tool that enables content or context searches, either simple or hierarchical, across a variety of databases. The system enables users to specify notification subscriptions where they associate "contexts of interest" and "events of interest" to one or more documents or collection(s) of documents. Based on these subscriptions, users receive notification when the events of interest occur within the contexts of interest for associated document or collection(s) of documents. Users can also associate at least one notification time as part of the notification subscription, with at least one option for the time period of notifications.

Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wobus, Cameron; Reynolds, Lara; Jones, Russell; Horton, Radley; Smith, Joel; Fries, J. Stephen; Tryby, Michael; Spero, Tanya; Nolte, Chris

2015-01-01

Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

Observing binary black hole ringdowns by advanced gravitational wave detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maselli, Andrea; Kokkotas, Kostas D.; Laguna, Pablo

2017-05-01

The direct discovery of gravitational waves from compact binary systems leads for the first time to explore the possibility of black hole spectroscopy. Newly formed black holes produced by coalescing events are copious emitters of gravitational radiation, in the form of damped sinusoids, the quasinormal modes. The latter provides a precious source of information on the nature of gravity in the strong field regime, as they represent a powerful tool to investigate the validity of the no-hair theorem. In this work we perform a systematic study on the accuracy with which current and future interferometers will measure the fundamental parameters of ringdown events, such as frequencies and damping times. We analyze how these errors affect the estimate of the mass and the angular momentum of the final black hole, constraining the parameter space which will lead to the most precise measurements. We explore both single and multimode events, showing how the uncertainties evolve when multiple detectors are available. We also prove that, for the second generation of interferometers, a network of instruments is a crucial and necessary ingredient to perform strong-gravity tests of the no-hair theorem. Finally, we analyze the constraints that a third generation of detectors may be able to set on the mode's parameters, comparing the projected bounds against those obtained for current facilities.

Single-shot optical recording with sub-picosecond resolution spans record nanosecond lengths

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muir, Ryan; Heebner, John

With the advent of electronics, oscilloscopes and photodiodes are now routinely capable of measuring events well below nanosecond resolution. However, these electronic instruments do not currently measure events below 10 ps resolution. From Walden’s observation that there is an engineering tradeoff between electronic bit depth and temporal resolution in analog-to-digital converters, this technique is projected to have extremely poor fidelity if it is extended to record single events with picosecond resolution. While this constraint may be circumvented with extensive signal averaging or other multiple measurements approaches, rare events and nonrepetitive events cannot be observed with this technique. Techniques capable ofmore » measuring information in a single shot are often required. There is a general lack of available technologies that are easily scalable to long records with sub-picosecond resolution, and are simultaneously versatile in wavelength of operation. Since it is difficult to scale electronic methods to shorter resolutions, we instead aim to scale optical methods to longer records. Demonstrated optical recording methods that have achieved 1 ps resolution and long recording lengths rely on either time scaling to slow down the temporal information or, like Wien, perform time-to-space mapping so that fast events may be captured with a conventional camera.« less

Single-shot optical recording with sub-picosecond resolution spans record nanosecond lengths

DOE PAGES

Muir, Ryan; Heebner, John

2018-01-18

With the advent of electronics, oscilloscopes and photodiodes are now routinely capable of measuring events well below nanosecond resolution. However, these electronic instruments do not currently measure events below 10 ps resolution. From Walden’s observation that there is an engineering tradeoff between electronic bit depth and temporal resolution in analog-to-digital converters, this technique is projected to have extremely poor fidelity if it is extended to record single events with picosecond resolution. While this constraint may be circumvented with extensive signal averaging or other multiple measurements approaches, rare events and nonrepetitive events cannot be observed with this technique. Techniques capable ofmore » measuring information in a single shot are often required. There is a general lack of available technologies that are easily scalable to long records with sub-picosecond resolution, and are simultaneously versatile in wavelength of operation. Since it is difficult to scale electronic methods to shorter resolutions, we instead aim to scale optical methods to longer records. Demonstrated optical recording methods that have achieved 1 ps resolution and long recording lengths rely on either time scaling to slow down the temporal information or, like Wien, perform time-to-space mapping so that fast events may be captured with a conventional camera.« less

CSU's MWV Observatory: A Facility for Research, Education and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, John; Carpenter, N. D.; McCarty, C. B.; Samford, J. H.; Johnson, M.; Puckett, A. W.; Williams, R. N.; Cruzen, S. T.

2014-01-01

The Mead Westvaco Observatory (MWVO), located in Columbus State University's Coca-Cola Space Science Center, is dedicated to education and research in astronomy through hands-on engagement and public participation. The MWVO has recently received funding to upgrade from a 16-inch Meade LX-200 telescope to a PlaneWave CDK 24-inch Corrected Dall-Kirkham Astrograph telescope. This and other technological upgrades will allow this observatory to stream live webcasts for astronomical events, allowing a worldwide public audience to become a part of the growing astronomical community. This poster will explain the upgrades that are currently in progress as well as the results from the current calibrations. The goal of these upgrades is to provide facilities capable of both research-class projects and widespread use in education and public outreach. We will present our initial calibration and tests of the observatory equipment, as well as its use in webcasts of astronomical events, in solar observing through the use of specialized piggy-backed telescopes, and in research into such topics as asteroids, planetary and nebula imaging. We will describe a pilot research project on asteroid orbit refinement and light curves, to be carried out by Columbus State University students. We will also outline many of the K-12 educational and public outreach activities we have designed for these facilities. Support and funding for the acquisition and installation of the new PlaneWave CDK 24 has been provided by the International Museum and Library Services via the Museums for America Award.

Multi-viewpoint Coronal Mass Ejection Catalog Based on STEREO COR2 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlidas, Angelos; Balmaceda, Laura A.; Stenborg, Guillermo; Dal Lago, Alisson

2017-04-01

We present the first multi-viewpoint coronal mass ejection (CME) catalog. The events are identified visually in simultaneous total brightness observations from the twin SECCHI/COR2 coronagraphs on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory mission. The Multi-View CME Catalog differs from past catalogs in three key aspects: (1) all events between the two viewpoints are cross-linked, (2) each event is assigned a physics-motivated morphological classification (e.g., jet, wave, and flux rope), and (3) kinematic and geometric information is extracted semi-automatically via a supervised image segmentation algorithm. The database extends from the beginning of the COR2 synoptic program (2007 March) to the end of dual-viewpoint observations (2014 September). It contains 4473 unique events with 3358 events identified in both COR2s. Kinematic properties exist currently for 1747 events (26% of COR2-A events and 17% of COR2-B events). We examine several issues, made possible by this cross-linked CME database, including the role of projection on the perceived morphology of events, the missing CME rate, the existence of cool material in CMEs, the solar cycle dependence on CME rate, speeds and width, and the existence of flux rope within CMEs. We discuss the implications for past single-viewpoint studies and for Space Weather research. The database is publicly available on the web including all available measurements. We hope that it will become a useful resource for the community.

Collaborative Projects Weaving Indigenous and Western Science, Knowledge and Perspectives in Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M.; Brunacini, J.; Spellman, K.

2017-12-01

The "Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change" and "Feedbacks and Impacts of A Warming Arctic: Engaging Learners in STEM Using GLOBE and NASA Assets" projects are examples of Indigenous and western science communities' collaborative efforts in braiding multiple perspectives and methods in climate change education. Lessons being learned and applied in these projects include the need to invite and engage members of the indigenous and scientific communities in the beginning as a project is being proposed or formulated; the need for negotiated space in the project and activities where opportunity to present and access both knowledge systems is equitable, recognizes and validates each knowledge and method, and considers the use of pedagogical practices including pace/rhythm and instructional approach most suitable to the target audience. For example with Indigenous audiences/participants, it is important to follow local Indigenous protocol to start an event and/or use a resource that highlights the current experience or voices of Indigenous people with climate change. For mixed audience groups, it is critical to have personal introductions at the beginning of an event so that each participant is given an opportunity and encouraged to voice their ideas and opinions starting with how they want to introduce themselves and thus begin to establish a welcoming and collegial atmosphere for dialog. It is also important to communicate climate science in humanistic terms, that people and communities are affected not just the environment or economies. These collaborative partnerships produce mutual benefits including increased awareness and understanding of personal connections to climate change impacts; opportunities for cultural enrichment; opportunities for accessing elder knowledge which is highly valued as well as science, education and communication tools that are needed in working together in addressing issues and making communities resilient and adaptive.

Recognising safety critical events: can automatic video processing improve naturalistic data analyses?

PubMed

Dozza, Marco; González, Nieves Pañeda

2013-11-01

New trends in research on traffic accidents include Naturalistic Driving Studies (NDS). NDS are based on large scale data collection of driver, vehicle, and environment information in real world. NDS data sets have proven to be extremely valuable for the analysis of safety critical events such as crashes and near crashes. However, finding safety critical events in NDS data is often difficult and time consuming. Safety critical events are currently identified using kinematic triggers, for instance searching for deceleration below a certain threshold signifying harsh braking. Due to the low sensitivity and specificity of this filtering procedure, manual review of video data is currently necessary to decide whether the events identified by the triggers are actually safety critical. Such reviewing procedure is based on subjective decisions, is expensive and time consuming, and often tedious for the analysts. Furthermore, since NDS data is exponentially growing over time, this reviewing procedure may not be viable anymore in the very near future. This study tested the hypothesis that automatic processing of driver video information could increase the correct classification of safety critical events from kinematic triggers in naturalistic driving data. Review of about 400 video sequences recorded from the events, collected by 100 Volvo cars in the euroFOT project, suggested that drivers' individual reaction may be the key to recognize safety critical events. In fact, whether an event is safety critical or not often depends on the individual driver. A few algorithms, able to automatically classify driver reaction from video data, have been compared. The results presented in this paper show that the state of the art subjective review procedures to identify safety critical events from NDS can benefit from automated objective video processing. In addition, this paper discusses the major challenges in making such video analysis viable for future NDS and new potential applications for NDS video processing. As new NDS such as SHRP2 are now providing the equivalent of five years of one vehicle data each day, the development of new methods, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems necessary to guarantee that these data can actually be analysed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current Development at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appel, V. L.; Clayton, R. W.

2005-12-01

Over the past year, the SCEDC completed or is near completion of three featured projects: Station Information System (SIS) Development: The SIS will provide users with an interface into complete and accurate station metadata for all current and historic data at the SCEDC. The goal of this project is to develop a system that can interact with a single database source to enter, update and retrieve station metadata easily and efficiently. The system will provide accurate station/channel information for active stations to the SCSN real-time processing system, as will as station/channel information for stations that have parametric data at the SCEDC i.e., for users retrieving data via STP. Additionally, the SIS will supply information required to generate dataless SEED and COSMOS V0 volumes and allow stations to be added to the system with a minimum, but incomplete set of information using predefined defaults that can be easily updated as more information becomes available. Finally, the system will facilitate statewide metadata exchange for both real-time processing and provide a common approach to CISN historic station metadata. Moment Tensor Solutions: The SCEDC is currently archiving and delivering Moment Magnitudes and Moment Tensor Solutions (MTS) produced by the SCSN in real-time and post-processing solutions for events spanning back to 1999. The automatic MTS runs on all local events with magnitudes > 3.0, and all regional events > 3.5. The distributed solution automatically creates links from all USGS Simpson Maps to a text e-mail summary solution, creates a .gif image of the solution, and updates the moment tensor database tables at the SCEDC. Searchable Scanned Waveforms Site: The Caltech Seismological Lab has made available 12,223 scanned images of pre-digital analog recordings of major earthquakes recorded in Southern California between 1962 and 1992 at http://www.data.scec.org/research/scans/. The SCEDC has developed a searchable web interface that allows users to search the available files, select multiple files for download and then retrieve a zipped file containing the results. Scanned images of paper records for M>3.5 southern California earthquakes and several significant teleseisms are available for download via the SCEDC through this search tool.

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

EARS : Repositioning data management near data acquisition.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinquin, Jean-Marc; Sorribas, Jordi; Diviacco, Paolo; Vandenberghe, Thomas; Munoz, Raquel; Garcia, Oscar

2016-04-01

The EU FP7 Projects Eurofleets and Eurofleets2 are an European wide alliance of marine research centers that aim to share their research vessels, to improve information sharing on planned, current and completed cruises, on details of ocean-going research vessels and specialized equipment, and to durably improve cost-effectiveness of cruises. Within this context logging of information on how, when and where anything happens on board of the vessel is crucial information for data users in a later stage. This forms a primordial step in the process of data quality control as it could assist in the understanding of anomalies and unexpected trends recorded in the acquired data sets. In this way completeness of the metadata is improved as it is recorded accurately at the origin of the measurement. The collection of this crucial information has been done in very different ways, using different procedures, formats and pieces of software in the context of the European Research Fleet. At the time that the Eurofleets project started, every institution and country had adopted different strategies and approaches, which complicated the task of users that need to log general purpose information and events on-board whenever they access a different platform loosing the opportunity to produce this valuable metadata on-board. Among the many goals the Eurofleets project has, a very important task is the development of an "event log software" called EARS (Eurofleets Automatic Reporting System) that enables scientists and operators to record what happens during a survey. EARS will allow users to fill, in a standardized way, the gap existing at the moment in metadata description that only very seldom links data with its history. Events generated automatically by acquisition instruments will also be handled, enhancing the granularity and precision of the event annotation. The adoption of a common procedure to log survey events and a common terminology to describe them is crucial to provide a friendly and successfully metadata on-board creation procedure for the whole the European Fleet. The possibility of automatically reporting metadata and general purpose data, will simplify the work of scientists and data managers with regards to data transmission. An improved accuracy and completeness of metadata is expected when events are recorded at acquisition time. This will also enhance multiple usages of the data as it allows verification of the different requirements existing in different disciplines.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

2016-04-01

Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the flood risk and to estimate probable maximum loss (e.g. PML200) for a given property (buildings, industry) portfolio.

Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

2013-04-01

The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

Developing a Framework for Seamless Prediction of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosendahl, D. H.; Ćwik, P.; Martin, E. R.; Basara, J. B.; Brooks, H. E.; Furtado, J. C.; Homeyer, C. R.; Lazrus, H.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Mullens, E.; Richman, M. B.; Robinson-Cook, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events cause significant damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture, as well as many injures and fatalities as a result of fast-moving water or waterborne diseases. In the USA, these natural hazard events claimed the lives of more than 300 people during 2015 - 2016 alone, with total damage reaching $24.4 billion. Prior studies of extreme precipitation events have focused on the sub-daily to sub-weekly timeframes. However, many decisions for planning, preparing and resilience-building require sub-seasonal to seasonal timeframes (S2S; 14 to 90 days), but adequate forecasting tools for prediction do not exist. Therefore, the goal of this newly funded project is an enhancement in understanding of the large-scale forcing and dynamics of S2S extreme precipitation events in the United States, and improved capability for modeling and predicting such events. Here, we describe the project goals, objectives, and research activities that will take place over the next 5 years. In this project, a unique team of scientists and stakeholders will identify and understand weather and climate processes connected with the prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events by answering these research questions: 1) What are the synoptic patterns associated with, and characteristic of, S2S extreme precipitation evens in the contiguous U.S.? 2) What role, if any, do large-scale modes of climate variability play in modulating these events? 3) How predictable are S2S extreme precipitation events across temporal scales? 4) How do we create an informative prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events for policymaking and planing? This project will use observational data, high-resolution radar composites, dynamical climate models and workshops that engage stakeholders (water resource managers, emergency managers and tribal environmental professionals) in co-production of knowledge. The overarching result of this project will be predictive models to reduce of the societal and economic impacts of extreme precipitation events. Another outcome will include statistical and co-production frameworks, which could be applied across other meteorological extremes, all time scales and in other parts of the world to increase resilience to extreme meteorological events.

Tests of neutrino interaction models with the MicroBooNE detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafique, Aleena

2018-01-01

I measure a large set of observables in inclusive charged current muon neutrino scattering on argon with the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber operating at Fermilab. I evaluate three neutrino interaction models based on the widely used GENIE event generator using these observables. The measurement uses a data set consisting of neutrino interactions with a final state muon candidate fully contained within the MicroBooNE detector. These data were collected in 2016 with the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam, which has an average neutrino energy ofmore » $800$ MeV, using an exposure corresponding to $$5.0\\times10^{19}$$ protons-on-target. The analysis employs fully automatic event selection and charged particle track reconstruction and uses a data-driven technique to separate neutrino interactions from cosmic ray background events. I find that GENIE models consistently describe the shapes of a large number of kinematic distributions for fixed observed multiplicity, but I show an indication that the observed multiplicity fractions deviate from GENIE expectations.« less

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

PubMed Central

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Mundy, Craig N.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

2017-01-01

The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences. PMID:28706247

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Mundy, Craig N.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

2017-07-01

The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively >=330 times and >=6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.

Probabilistic Projections of Future Sea-Level Change and Their Implications for Flood Risk Management: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Horton, R. M.; Houser, T.; Little, C. M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Oppenheimer, M.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Strauss, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2014-12-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) rise projections are insufficient for adaptation planning; local decisions require local projections that characterize risk over a range of timeframes and tolerances. We present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We present complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling [1]. We illustrate the application of this framework by estimating the joint distribution of future sea-level change and coastal flooding, and associated economic costs [1,2]. In much of the world in the current century, differences in median LSL projections are due primarily to varying levels of non-climatic uplift or subsidence. In the 22nd century and in the high-end tails, larger ice sheet contributions, particularly from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS), contribute significantly to site-to-site differences. Uncertainty in GMSL and most LSL projections is dominated by the uncertain AIS component. Sea-level rise dramatically reshapes flood risk. For example, at the New York City (Battery) tide gauge, our projections indicate a likely (67% probability) 21st century LSL rise under RCP 8.5 of 65--129 cm (1-in-20 chance of exceeding 154 cm). Convolving the distribution of projected sea-level rise with the extreme value distribution of flood return periods indicates that this rise will cause the current 1.80 m `1-in-100 year' flood event to occur an expected nine times over the 21st century -- equivalent to the expected number of `1-in-11 year' floods in the absence of sea-level change. Projected sea-level rise for 2100 under RCP 8.5 would likely place 80-160 billion of current property in New York below the high tide line, with a 1-in-20 chance of losses >190 billion. Even without accounting for potential changes in storms themselves, it would likely increase average annual storm damage by 2.6-5.2 billion (1-in-20 chance of >7 billion). Projected increases in tropical cyclone intensity would further increase damages [2]. References: [1] R. E. Kopp et al. (2014), Earth's Future, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Event-driven management algorithm of an Engineering documents circulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzenkov, V.; Zebzeev, A.; Gromakov, E.

2015-04-01

Development methodology of an engineering documents circulation system in the design company is reviewed. Discrete event-driven automatic models using description algorithms of project management is offered. Petri net use for dynamic design of projects is offered.

Building a time-saving and adaptable tool to report adverse drug events.

PubMed

Parès, Yves; Declerck, Gunnar; Hussain, Sajjad; Ng, Romain; Jaulent, Marie-Christine

2013-01-01

The difficult task of detecting adverse drug events (ADEs) and the tedious process of building manual reports of ADE occurrences out of patient profiles result in a majority of adverse reactions not being reported to health regulatory authorities. The SALUS individual case safety report (ICSR) reporting tool, a component currently developed within the SALUS project, aims to support semi-automatic reporting of ADEs to regulatory authorities. In this paper, we present an initial design and current state of of our ICSR reporting tool that features: (i) automatic pre-population of reporting forms through extraction of the patient data contained in an Electronic Health Record (EHR); (ii) generation and electronic submission of the completed ICSRs by the physician to regulatory authorities; and (iii) integration of the reporting process into the physician's work-flow to limit the disturbance. The objective is to increase the rates of ADE reporting and the quality of the reported data. The SALUS interoperability platform supports patient data extraction independently of the EHR data model in use and allows generation of reports using the format expected by regulatory authorities.

Microwave Atmospheric Sounder on CubeSat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padmanabhan, S.; Brown, S. E.; Kangaslahti, P.; Cofield, R.; Russell, D.; Stachnik, R. A.; Su, H.; Wu, L.; Tanelli, S.; Niamsuwan, N.

2014-12-01

To accurately predict how the distribution of extreme events may change in the future we need to understand the mechanisms that influence such events in our current climate. Our current observing system is not well-suited for observing extreme events globally due to the sparse sampling and in-homogeneity of ground-based in-situ observations and the infrequent revisit time of satellite observations. Observations of weather extremes, such as extreme precipitation events, temperature extremes, tropical and extra-tropical cyclones among others, with temporal resolution on the order of minutes and spatial resolution on the order of few kms (<10 kms), are required for improved forecasting of extreme weather events. We envision a suite of low-cost passive microwave sounding and imaging sensors on CubeSats that would work in concert with traditional flagship observational systems, such as those manifested on large environmental satellites (i.e. JPSS,WSF,GCOM-W), to monitor weather extremes. A 118/183 GHz sensor would enable observations of temperature and precipitation extremes over land and ocean as well as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. This proposed project would enable low cost, compact radiometer instrumentation at 118 and 183 GHz that would fit in a 6U Cubesat with the objective of mass-producing this design to enable a suite of small satellites to image the key geophysical parameters needed to improve prediction of extreme weather events. We take advantage of past and current technology developments at JPL viz. HAMSR (High Altitude Microwave Scanning Radiometer), Advanced Component Technology (ACT'08) to enable low-mass, low-power high frequency airborne radiometers. In this paper, we will describe the design and implementation of the 118 GHz temperature sounder and 183 GHz humidity sounder on the 6U CubeSat. In addition, a summary of radiometer calibration and retrieval techniques of temperature and humidity will be discussed. The successful demonstration of this instrument on the 6U CubeSat would pave the way for the development of a constellation which could sample tropospheric temperature and humidity with fine temporal and spatial resolution.

Airborne Deployment and Calibration of Microwave Atmospheric Sounder on 6U CubeSat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padmanabhan, S.; Brown, S. T.; Lim, B.; Kangaslahti, P.; Russell, D.; Stachnik, R. A.

2015-12-01

To accurately predict how the distribution of extreme events may change in the future we need to understand the mechanisms that influence such events in our current climate. Our current observing system is not well-suited for observing extreme events globally due to the sparse sampling and in-homogeneity of ground-based in-situ observations and the infrequent revisit time of satellite observations. Observations of weather extremes, such as extreme precipitation events, temperature extremes, tropical and extra-tropical cyclones among others, with temporal resolution on the order of minutes and spatial resolution on the order of few kms (<10 kms), are required for improved forecasting of extreme weather events. We envision a suite of low-cost passive microwave sounding and imaging sensors on CubeSats that would work in concert with traditional flagship observational systems, such as those manifested on large environmental satellites (i.e. JPSS,WSF,GCOM-W), to monitor weather extremes. A 118/183 GHz sensor would enable observations of temperature and precipitation extremes over land and ocean as well as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. This proposed project would enable low cost, compact radiometer instrumentation at 118 and 183 GHz that would fit in a 6U Cubesat with the objective of mass-producing this design to enable a suite of small satellites to image the key geophysical parameters needed to improve prediction of extreme weather events. We take advantage of past and current technology developments at JPL viz. HAMSR (High Altitude Microwave Scanning Radiometer), Advanced Component Technology (ACT'08) to enable low-mass, low-power high frequency airborne radiometers. In this paper, we will describe the design and implementation of the 118 GHz temperature sounder and 183 GHz humidity sounder on the 6U CubeSat. In addition, we will discuss the maiden airborne deployment of the instrument during the Plain Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) experiment. The successful demonstration of this instrument on the 6U CubeSat would pave the way for the development of a constellation which could sample tropospheric temperature and humidity with fine temporal and spatial resolution.

The advantages of cost plus award fee contracts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keathley, William C.

1994-01-01

A Cost Plus Award Fee contract is the best procurement vehicle for the high-tech, one-of-a-kind, development projects that constitute most of NASA'S projects. The use of this type of contract requires more government and contractor effort than any other forms of contracts. An award fee contract is described as an arrangement whereby the government periodically awards a fee consistent with the cost, schedule and technical performance that is achieved by a contractor during a preset period with preset award fee pools. It's the only contracting method where both the government and contractor goals are closely linked. It also has a built-in mechanism to conveniently alter and emphasize program events in order to current external and internal situations. The award fee process also demands good communication between government and contractor participants.

The LARI Experience - Young Stellar Light Curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Michael J.; Coveyl, Kevin; Heiland, Leo; Steffens, Gary W.

2015-05-01

The Lowell Observatory has had a long and rich history of professional-amateur (Pro-Am) collaborations beginning with the observatory's founder, Percival Lowell. The Lowell Amateur Research Initiative (LARI) was launched in 2012 to formally involve amateur astronomers in scientific research by bringing them to the attention of and helping professional astronomers with their research endeavours. One of the LARI projects is the BVRI photometric monitoring of Young Stellar Objects (YSOs), wherein amateurs obtain observations to search for new outburst events and characterize the colour evolution of previously identified outbursters. We summarize the scientific and organizational aspects of this LARI program, including its goals and science motivation, the process for getting involved with the project, the current team members and their equipment, our unique methods of collaboration, programme stars, preliminary findings, and lessons learned.

The Decision to Send Humans Back to the Moon and on to Mars: Space Exploration Initiative History Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCurdy, Howard E.

1992-01-01

This folder contains working papers collected to date on a NASA-sponsored history project to document the events leading up to the July 20, 1989 speech setting forth the objectives of the Space Exploration Initiative. Included are a chronology of events, briefing papers produced by the NASA Working Group laying out proposal, briefing charts used to present the proposal, a copy of the President's speech, and an essay summarizing the events that led up to the announcement. Additionally, two fo the interviews conducted as part of the project are enclosed.

The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Fisher, William S; Malone, Thomas C; Giattina, James D

2003-01-01

More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.

Flash floods in small Alpine catchments in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hazardous meteorological and hydrological events in numerous mountainous areas. The mountain environment is becoming more and more important for urbanization and the tourism-based economy. Here we show new and innovative methodologies for assessing intensity and frequency of flash floods in small Alpine catchments, in South Tyrol (Italy), under climate change. This research is done within the STEEP STREAMS project, whereby we work closely with decision makers in Italian authorities, and the final goal is to provide them with clear guidelines on how to adapt current structural solutions for mitigating hazardous events under future climate conditions. To this end, we develop a coupled framework of weather generation (i.e. extrapolation of observations and trained with climate projections), time series disaggregation and hydrological modelling using the conceptual HBV model. One of the key challenges is the transfer of comparatively coarse RCM projections to small catchments, whose sizes range from only about 10km2 to 100km2. We examine different strategies to downscale the RCM data from e.g. the EURO-CORDEX dataset using our weather generator. The selected projections represent combinations of warmer, milder, drier and wetter conditions. In general, our main focus is to develop an improved understanding of the impact of the multiple sources of uncertainty in this modelling framework, and make these uncertainties tangible. The output of this study (i.e. discharge with a return period and associated uncertainty) will allow hydraulic and sediment transport modelling of flash floods and debris flows.

Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

2017-06-01

As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

Studying the hydro-meteorological extremes. The benefits from the European Flash Flood research oriented HYDRATE project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Grillakis, Emmanouil G.

2010-05-01

The present paper summarizes the advances of flash flood research for the Greek case study, within the frame of HYDRATE EC funded project. As a first step, a collation of homogenous primary data on flash floods occurred in Greece based on various data sources resulted in 21 documented events, enriching the HYDRATE database. Specific major events were selected for further detailed data collation and analysis. A common intensive post event field survey was conducted by various researchers with different skills and experience, in order to document the 18th of September 2007, Western Slovenia flash flood event. The observation strategy and the lessons learned during this campaign were applied successfully for surveying an event in Crete. Two flash flood events occurred in Crete were selected for detailed analysis, the 13th of January 1994 event occurred in Giofiros basin and the 17th of October 2006 event occurred in Almirida basin. Several techniques, like distributed rainfall-runoff modelling, hydraulic modelling, indirect and empirical peak discharge estimation, were applied for the understanding of the dominant flash flood processes and the effect of initial conditions on peak discharge. In a more general framework, the seasonality of the hydrometeorologic characteristics of floods that occurred in Crete during the period 1990-2007 and the atmospheric circulation conditions during the flood events were examined. During the three and a half years research period, many lessons have learnt from a fruitful collaboration among the project partners. HYDRATE project improved the scientific basis of flash flood research and provided research knowledge on flood risk management.

Defining a quantitative framework for evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of mega-event projects.

PubMed

Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

2016-02-01

This paper presents a novel quantitative methodology for the evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of the whole life cycle of a mega-event project: construction and staging the event and post-event site redevelopment and operation. Within the proposed framework, a mathematical model has been developed that takes into account greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from use of transportation fuel, energy, water and construction materials used at all stages of the mega-event project. The model is applied to a case study - the London Olympic Park. Three potential post-event site design scenarios of the Park have been developed: Business as Usual (BAU), Commercial World (CW) and High Rise High Density (HRHD). A quantitative summary of results demonstrates that the highest GHG emissions associated with the actual event are almost negligible compared to those associated with the legacy phase. The highest share of emissions in the legacy phase is attributed to embodied emissions from construction materials (almost 50% for the BAU and HRHD scenarios) and emissions resulting from the transportation of residents, visitors and employees to/from the site (almost 60% for the CW scenario). The BAU scenario is the one with the lowest GHG emissions compared to the other scenarios. The results also demonstrate how post-event site design scenarios can be optimised to minimise the GHG emissions. The overall outcomes illustrate how the proposed framework can be used to support decision making process for mega-event projects planning. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An experience of knowledge co-production for setting up landslide risk management processes in a critical infrastructure: the case of Campania Region (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rianna, Guido; Roca Collell, Marta; Uzielli, Marco; Van Ruiten, Kees; Mercogliano, Paola; Ciervo, Fabio; Reder, Alfredo

2017-04-01

In Campania Region (Southern Italy), expected increases in heavy rainfall events under the effect of climate changes and demographic pressure could entail a growth of occurrence of weather induced landslides and associated damages. Indeed, already in recent years, pyroclastic covers mantling the slopes of a large part of the Region have been affected by numerous events often causing victims and damages to infrastructures serving the urban centers. Due to the strategic relevance of the area, landslide events affecting volcanic layers in Campania Region are one of the five case studies investigated in the FP7 European Project INTACT about the impacts of extreme weather on critical infrastructure. The main aim of INTACT project is to increase the resilience of critical infrastructures (CI) facing extreme weather events improving the awareness of stakeholders and asset managers about such phenomena and their potential variations due to Climate Changes and providing tools to support risk management strategies. A WIKI has been designed as a remote support for all stages of the risk process through brief theoretical explanations (in Wiki style) about tools and methods proposed and reports on the findings and hints returned by case studies investigations. In order to have a product tailored to the needs and background of CI owners, managers and policy makers, an intense effort of knowledge co-production between researchers and stakeholders have been carried out in different case studies through questionnaires, meetings, workshops and/or 1-to-1 interviews. This work presents the different tools and approaches adopted to facilitate the exchange with stakeholders in the Campanian case study such as the "Storytelling approach", aiming to stress the need for a comprehensive and overall approach to the issue between the different disaster management phases (mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery) and actors; the CIRCLE approach developed by Deltares, partner in INTACT consortium, which investigates direct and cascading effects induced by landslide events in pyroclastic cover; pairwise comparisons to identify the more relevant parameters of protection actions against landslide events in pyroclastic soils; and cumulative distribution functions returned by multi model climate simulation ensembles, displaying the occurrence probability of fixed variations in weather-proxy for landslide events, and providing a reliable frame of the current uncertainties in climate projections. The main findings achieved through the application of these tools and methods for the Campanian test case are illustrated and discussed.

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-04-01

The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

Statin cost-effectiveness in the United States for people at different vascular risk levels.

PubMed

2009-03-01

Statins reduce the rates of heart attacks, strokes, and revascularization procedures (ie, major vascular events) in a wide range of circumstances. Randomized controlled trial data from 20,536 adults have been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of prescribing statin therapy in the United States for people at different levels of vascular disease risk and to explore whether wider use of generic statins beyond the populations currently recommended for treatment in clinical guidelines is indicated. Randomized controlled trial data, an internally validated vascular disease model, and US costs of statin therapy and other medical care were used to project lifetime risks of vascular events and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 40 mg simvastatin daily. For an average of 5 years, allocation to simvastatin reduced the estimated US costs of hospitalizations for vascular events by approximately 20% (95% CI, 15 to 24) in the different subcategories of participants studied. At a daily cost of $1 for 40 mg generic simvastatin, the estimated costs of preventing a vascular death within the 5-year study period ranged from a net saving of $1300 (95% CI, $15,600 saving to $13,200 cost) among participants with a 42% 5-year major vascular event risk to a net cost of $216,500 ($123,700 to $460,000 cost) among those with a 12% 5-year risk. The costs per life year gained with lifetime simvastatin treatment ranged from $2500 (-$40 to $3820) in people aged 40 to 49 years with a 42% 5-year major vascular event risk to $10,990 ($9430 to $14,700) in people aged 70 years and older with a 12% 5-year risk. Treatment with generic simvastatin appears to be cost-effective for a much wider population in the United States than that recommended by current guidelines.

The Enriched Xenon Observatory: EXO-200 and Ba+ tagging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolinski, M. J.; EXO Collaboration

2012-08-01

The Enriched Xenon Observatory (EXO) is a proposed ton-scale double beta decay experiment with a tentative design sensitivity to the Majorana mass of ˜10 meV. The first phase of EXO is EXO-200, which uses 200 kg of Xe enriched to 80% in 136Xe to search for neutrinoless double beta decay. EXO-200 is a liquid Xe time projection chamber with the ability to detect both scintillation and ionization signals. The detector is constructed from ultra-low background materials and is currently installed at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, a salt mine with a 1600 meter water equivalent overburden. The projected 2 year sensitivity for EXO-200 is T1/20ν>6.4×1025 y at 90% confidence level. Looking toward a ton-scale EXO, one unique feature of the experiment is the proposal to identify the barium daughter produced by 136Xe double beta decay on an event-by-event basis. This technique will allow for the elimination of all backgrounds other than the background from the two-neutrino double beta decay spectrum. The EXO Collaboration is exploring a number of options to implement Ba-daughter tagging in the next generation EXO experiment.

The projected background for the CUORE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alduino, C.; Alfonso, K.; Artusa, D. R.; Avignone, F. T.; Azzolini, O.; Banks, T. I.; Bari, G.; Beeman, J. W.; Bellini, F.; Benato, G.; Bersani, A.; Biassoni, M.; Branca, A.; Brofferio, C.; Bucci, C.; Camacho, A.; Caminata, A.; Canonica, L.; Cao, X. G.; Capelli, S.; Cappelli, L.; Carbone, L.; Cardani, L.; Carniti, P.; Casali, N.; Cassina, L.; Chiesa, D.; Chott, N.; Clemenza, M.; Copello, S.; Cosmelli, C.; Cremonesi, O.; Creswick, R. J.; Cushman, J. S.; D'Addabbo, A.; Dafinei, I.; Davis, C. J.; Dell'Oro, S.; Deninno, M. M.; Di Domizio, S.; Di Vacri, M. L.; Drobizhev, A.; Fang, D. Q.; Faverzani, M.; Fernandes, G.; Ferri, E.; Ferroni, F.; Fiorini, E.; Franceschi, M. A.; Freedman, S. J.; Fujikawa, B. K.; Giachero, A.; Gironi, L.; Giuliani, A.; Gladstone, L.; Gorla, P.; Gotti, C.; Gutierrez, T. D.; Haller, E. E.; Han, K.; Hansen, E.; Heeger, K. M.; Hennings-Yeomans, R.; Hickerson, K. P.; Huang, H. Z.; Kadel, R.; Keppel, G.; Kolomensky, Yu. G.; Leder, A.; Ligi, C.; Lim, K. E.; Ma, Y. G.; Maino, M.; Marini, L.; Martinez, M.; Maruyama, R. H.; Mei, Y.; Moggi, N.; Morganti, S.; Mosteiro, P. J.; Napolitano, T.; Nastasi, M.; Nones, C.; Norman, E. B.; Novati, V.; Nucciotti, A.; O'Donnell, T.; Ouellet, J. L.; Pagliarone, C. E.; Pallavicini, M.; Palmieri, V.; Pattavina, L.; Pavan, M.; Pessina, G.; Pettinacci, V.; Piperno, G.; Pira, C.; Pirro, S.; Pozzi, S.; Previtali, E.; Rosenfeld, C.; Rusconi, C.; Sakai, M.; Sangiorgio, S.; Santone, D.; Schmidt, B.; Schmidt, J.; Scielzo, N. D.; Singh, V.; Sisti, M.; Smith, A. R.; Taffarello, L.; Tenconi, M.; Terranova, F.; Tomei, C.; Trentalange, S.; Vignati, M.; Wagaarachchi, S. L.; Wang, B. S.; Wang, H. W.; Welliver, B.; Wilson, J.; Winslow, L. A.; Wise, T.; Woodcraft, A.; Zanotti, L.; Zhang, G. Q.; Zhu, B. X.; Zimmermann, S.; Zucchelli, S.; Laubenstein, M.

2017-08-01

The Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events (CUORE) is designed to search for neutrinoless double beta decay of ^{130}Te with an array of 988 TeO_2 bolometers operating at temperatures around 10 mK. The experiment is currently being commissioned in Hall A of Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, Italy. The goal of CUORE is to reach a 90% C.L. exclusion sensitivity on the ^{130}Te decay half-life of 9 × 10^{25} years after 5 years of data taking. The main issue to be addressed to accomplish this aim is the rate of background events in the region of interest, which must not be higher than 10^{-2} counts/keV/kg/year. We developed a detailed Monte Carlo simulation, based on results from a campaign of material screening, radioassays, and bolometric measurements, to evaluate the expected background. This was used over the years to guide the construction strategies of the experiment and we use it here to project a background model for CUORE. In this paper we report the results of our study and our expectations for the background rate in the energy region where the peak signature of neutrinoless double beta decay of ^{130}Te is expected.

The New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX) Project - An overview of its major findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Kevin; Zschau, Jochen; Gasparini, Paolo

2014-05-01

Recent major natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident, have raised awareness of the frequent and potentially far-reaching interconnections between natural hazards. Such interactions occur at the hazard level, where an initial hazard may trigger other events (e.g., an earthquake triggering a tsunami) or several events may occur concurrently (or nearly so), e.g., severe weather around the same time as an earthquake. Interactions also occur at the vulnerability level, where the initial event may make the affected community more susceptible to the negative consequences of another event (e.g., an earthquake weakens buildings, which are then damaged further by windstorms). There is also a temporal element involved, where changes in exposure may alter the total risk to a given area. In short, there is the likelihood that the total risk estimated when considering multiple hazard and risks and their interactions is greater than the sum of their individual parts. It is with these issues in mind that the European Commission, under their FP7 program, supported the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project (10.2010 to 12.2013). MATRIX set out to tackle multiple natural hazards (i.e., those of concern to Europe, namely earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, tsunamis, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding) and risks within a common theoretical framework. The MATRIX work plan proceeded from an assessment of single-type risk methodologies (including how uncertainties should be treated), cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and an assessment of how the multi-hazard and risk viewpoint may be integrated into current decision making and risk mitigation programs, considering the existing single-hazard and risk focus. Three test sites were considered during the project: Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies. In addition, a software platform, the MATRIX-Common IT sYstem (MATRIX-CITY), was developed to allow the evaluation of characteristic multi-hazard and risk scenarios in comparison to single-type analyses. This presentation therefore outlines the more significant outcomes of the project, in particular those dealing with the harmonization of single-type hazards, cascade event analysis, time-dependent vulnerability changes and the response of the disaster management community to the MATRIX point of view.

Disasters as a necessary part of benefit-cost analyses.

PubMed

Mark, R K; Stuart-Alexander, D E

1977-09-16

Benefit-cost analyses for water projects generally have not included the expected costs (residual risk) of low-probability disasters such as dam failures, impoundment-induced earthquakes, and landslides. Analysis of the history of these types of events demonstrates that dam failures are not uncommon and that the probability of a reservoir-triggered earth-quake increases with increasing reservoir depth. Because the expected costs from such events can be significant and risk is project-specific, estimates should be made for each project. The cost of expected damage from a "high-risk" project in an urban area could be comparable to project benefits.

EPA Office of Water (OW): Nonpoint Source Projects NHDPlus Indexed Dataset

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

GRTS locational data for nonpoint source projects. GRTS locations are coded onto NHDPlus v2.1 flowline features to create point and line events or coded onto NHDPlus v2.1 waterbody features to create area events. In addition to NHDPlus reach indexed data there may also be custom events (point, line or area) that are not associated with NHD and are in an EPA standard format that is compatible with EPA's Reach Address Database. Custom events are used to represent GRTS locations that are not represented well in NHDPlus.

Projected Real-World Effectiveness of Using Aggressive Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Targets Among Elderly Statin Users Following Acute Coronary Syndromes in Canada.

PubMed

Alter, David A; Tu, Jack V; Koh, Maria; Jackevicius, Cynthia A; Austin, Peter C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Bhatia, R Sacha; Johnston, Sharon; Udell, Jacob A; Ko, Dennis T

2018-05-12

The extent to which outcome benefits may be achieved through the implementation of aggressive low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol targets in real world settings remains unknown, especially among elderly statin users following acute coronary syndromes. A population-based cohort study consisting of 19 544 post-acute coronary syndrome statin-users aged ≥66 years between January 1, 2017 and March 31, 2014 was used to project the number of adverse outcome events (acute myocardial infarction or death from any cause) that could be prevented if all post-acute coronary syndrome elderly statin users were treated to 1 of 2 LDL cholesterol target levels (≤50 and ≤70 mg/dL). The number of preventable adverse outcomes was estimated by using model-based expected event probabilities as derived from Cox Proportional hazards models. In total, 61.6% and 25.5% of the elderly patients met LDL cholesterol targets of ≤70 and ≤50 mg/dL, respectively, based on current management. No more than 2.3 adverse events per 1000 elderly statin users (95% confidence interval: -0.7 to 5.4, P =0.62) could be prevented over 8.1 years if all patients were to be treated from current LDL cholesterol levels to either of the 2 LDL cholesterol targets of 70 or 50 mg/dL. The number of acute myocardial infarctions or death that could be prevented through the implementation of LDL cholesterol targets with statins is negligible among an elderly post-acute coronary syndrome population. Such findings may have implications for the applicability of newer agents, such as proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type-9- inhibitors. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

An Investigation into Geography Teachers' Use of Current Events in Geography Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Degirmenci, Yavuz; Ilter, Ilhan

2017-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the extent to which geography teachers use current events within the context of their geography instruction, their sources of information about current events, the methods and techniques they adopt while using current events in their teaching and the skills and values they expect their students to develop. The…

Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

2012-04-01

We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return levels within the framework of a generalized Pareto distribution.

Amount and Percentage of Current Societal Assets in Areas on Kaua'i, Hawai'i, within the 1992 Hurricane 'Iniki Storm-Surge Inundation Zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan

2008-01-01

The Pacific Risk Management 'Ohana (PRiMO) is a network of partners and stakeholders involved in the development, delivery, and communication of risk management-related information, products, and services across the Pacific Ocean (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Services Center, 2008). One PRiMO-related project is the NOAA National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) initiative, which seeks to improve the understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity ('storminess') within the Pacific region and to develop a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies, and other decision-makers (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008a). One of the PRICIP information products is a historical storm 'event anatomy', which includes a summary of sector-specific socioeconomic impacts associated with a particular event, as well as information about the event and its climatological context. The intent of an event anatomy is to convey the causes of an extreme storm event and the associated impacts in a format that users can understand. The event anatomies also are intended to familiarize users with the in-place and remotely sensed products typically employed to track and forecast weather and climate. The first event anatomy developed as a prototype and hosted on the PRICIP portal is for Hurricane 'Iniki (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008b), a Category 3-4 hurricane that made landfall on the south coast of Kaua'i Island on September 11, 1992, with estimated maximum sustained winds of more than 140 mph and gusts as high as 175 mph. Storm-surge inundation occurred on the southern and northeastern coast of Kaua'i Island. In an effort to increase the amount of available information on the Hurricane 'Iniki event anatomy of the PRICIP portal, representatives from the NOAA NCDC IDEA Center contacted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 for assistance in determining what current societal assets are in areas that were inundated by storm surge during Hurricane 'Iniki in 1992. This report contains data summarizing the amount and percentage of current societal assets on Kaua'i Island, Hawai'i, that exist in the historic Hurricane 'Iniki storm-surge inundation zone. Coupled with an array of information on the socioeconomic impacts of Hurricane 'Iniki and distributed through the PRICIP portal, the results of this effort will help managers and the general public to understand the current risks posed by extreme storms in the Pacific Basin.

Big Data solution for CTBT monitoring: CEA-IDC joint global cross correlation project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrov, Dmitry; Bell, Randy; Brachet, Nicolas; Gaillard, Pierre; Kitov, Ivan; Rozhkov, Mikhail

2014-05-01

Waveform cross-correlation when applied to historical datasets of seismic records provides dramatic improvements in detection, location, and magnitude estimation of natural and manmade seismic events. With correlation techniques, the amplitude threshold of signal detection can be reduced globally by a factor of 2 to 3 relative to currently standard beamforming and STA/LTA detector. The gain in sensitivity corresponds to a body wave magnitude reduction by 0.3 to 0.4 units and doubles the number of events meeting high quality requirements (e.g. detected by three and more seismic stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS). This gain is crucial for seismic monitoring under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The International Data Centre (IDC) dataset includes more than 450,000 seismic events, tens of millions of raw detections and continuous seismic data from the primary IMS stations since 2000. This high-quality dataset is a natural candidate for an extensive cross correlation study and the basis of further enhancements in monitoring capabilities. Without this historical dataset recorded by the permanent IMS Seismic Network any improvements would not be feasible. However, due to the mismatch between the volume of data and the performance of the standard Information Technology infrastructure, it becomes impossible to process all the data within tolerable elapsed time. To tackle this problem known as "BigData", the CEA/DASE is part of the French project "DataScale". One objective is to reanalyze 10 years of waveform data from the IMS network with the cross-correlation technique thanks to a dedicated High Performance Computer (HPC) infrastructure operated by the Centre de Calcul Recherche et Technologie (CCRT) at the CEA of Bruyères-le-Châtel. Within 2 years we are planning to enhance detection and phase association algorithms (also using machine learning and automatic classification) and process about 30 terabytes of data provided by the IDC to update the world seismicity map. From the new events and those in the IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin, we will automatically create various sets of master event templates that will be used for the event location globally by the CTBTO and CEA.

Projections of extreme water level events for atolls in the western Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-12-01

Conditions that lead to extreme water levels and coastal flooding are examined for atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands based on a recent field study of wave transformations over fringing reefs, tide gauge observations, and wave model hindcasts. Wave-driven water level extremes pose the largest threat to atoll shorelines, with coastal levels scaling as approximately one-third of the incident breaking wave height. The wave-driven coastal water level is partitioned into a mean setup, low frequency oscillations associated with cross-reef quasi-standing modes, and wind waves that reach the shore after undergoing high dissipation due to breaking and bottom friction. All three components depend on the water level over the reef; however, the sum of the components is independent of water level due to cancelling effects. Wave hindcasts suggest that wave-driven water level extremes capable of coastal flooding are infrequent events that require a peak wave event to coincide with mid- to high-tide conditions. Interannual and decadal variations in sea level do not change the frequency of these events appreciably. Future sea-level rise scenarios significantly increase the flooding threat associated with wave events, with a nearly exponential increase in flooding days per year as sea level exceeds 0.3 to 1.0 m above current levels.

Machine Learning-based Transient Brokers for Real-time Classification of the LSST Alert Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Gautham; Zaidi, Tayeb; Soraisam, Monika; ANTARES Collaboration

2018-01-01

The number of transient events discovered by wide-field time-domain surveys already far outstrips the combined followup resources of the astronomical community. This number will only increase as we progress towards the commissioning of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), breaking the community's current followup paradigm. Transient brokers - software to sift through, characterize, annotate and prioritize events for followup - will be a critical tool for managing alert streams in the LSST era. Developing the algorithms that underlie the brokers, and obtaining simulated LSST-like datasets prior to LSST commissioning, to train and test these algorithms are formidable, though not insurmountable challenges. The Arizona-NOAO Temporal Analysis and Response to Events System (ANTARES) is a joint project of the National Optical Astronomy Observatory and the Department of Computer Science at the University of Arizona. We have been developing completely automated methods to characterize and classify variable and transient events from their multiband optical photometry. We describe the hierarchical ensemble machine learning algorithm we are developing, and test its performance on sparse, unevenly sampled, heteroskedastic data from various existing observational campaigns, as well as our progress towards incorporating these into a real-time event broker working on live alert streams from time-domain surveys.

SIFTER: Scintillating Fiber Telescopes for Energetic Radiation, Gamma-Ray Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paciesas, William S.

2002-01-01

The research project "SIFTER: Scintillating Fiber Telescopes for Energetic Radiation, Gamma-Ray Applications" approved under the NASA High Energy Astrophysics Research Program. The principal investigator of the proposal was Prof. Geoffrey N. Pendleton, who is currently on extended leave from UAH. Prof. William S. Paciesas administered the grant during Dr. Pendleton's absence. The project was originally funded for one year from 6/8/2000 to 6/7/2001. Due to conflicts with other commitments by the PI, the period of performance was extended at no additional cost until 6/30/2002. The goal of this project was to study scintillating fiber pair-tracking gamma-ray telescope configurations specifically designed to perform imaging and spectroscopy in the 5 - 250 MeV energy range. The main efforts were concentrated in two areas: 1) development of tracking techniques and event reconstruction algorithms, with particular emphasis on angular resolution; and 2) investigation of coded apertures as a means to improve the instrument angular resolution at low energies.

The roles of hydraulic and carbon stress in a widespread climate-induced forest die-off

PubMed Central

Anderegg, William R. L.; Berry, Joseph A.; Smith, Duncan D.; Sperry, John S.; Anderegg, Leander D. L.; Field, Christopher B.

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystems store approximately 45% of the carbon found in terrestrial ecosystems, but they are sensitive to climate-induced dieback. Forest die-off constitutes a large uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, climate–ecosystem interactions, and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Current understanding of the physiological mechanisms mediating climate-induced forest mortality limits the ability to model or project these threshold events. We report here a direct and in situ study of the mechanisms underlying recent widespread and climate-induced trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) forest mortality in western North America. We find substantial evidence of hydraulic failure of roots and branches linked to landscape patterns of canopy and root mortality in this species. On the contrary, we find no evidence that drought stress led to depletion of carbohydrate reserves. Our results illuminate proximate mechanisms underpinning recent aspen forest mortality and provide guidance for understanding and projecting forest die-offs under climate change. PMID:22167807

a Borehole Seismic System for Active and Passive Seimsic Studies to 3 KM at Ptrc's Aquistore Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, D. R.; Nixon, C.; Kofman, R.; White, D. J.; Worth, K.

2015-12-01

We have constructed a downhole seismic recording system for application to depths of nearly 3 km and temperatures up to 135 °C at Aquistore, an independent research and monitoring project in which liquid CO2 is being stored in a brine and sandstone water formation. The key component to this system is a set of commercially available slim-hole 3-C sondes carrying 15 Hz geophones deployable in open and cased boreholes with diameters as small as 57 mm. The system is currently hosted on a 4-conductor wireline with digital information streamed to the surface recording unit. We have further incorporated these sondes into a mobile passive monitoring unit that includes a number of redundancies such as a multiple Tbyte network accessible RAID hard-drive system (NAS) and a self-designed uninterruptible power supply. The system can be remotely controlled via the internet. The system is currently deployed covering a range of depths from 2850 m to 2910 m. Ambient temperatures at this depth are approximately 110 °C with onboard tool temperatures running at 115 °C. Data is continuously streamed to the NAS for archiving, approximately 11 GBytes of data is recorded per day at the sampling period of 0.5 ms. The lack of noise at this depth allows short data snippets to be flagged with a simple amplitude threshold criteria. The greatly reduced data volume of the snippets allows for ready access via the internet to the system for ongoing quality control. Spurious events, mostly small amplitude tube waves originating at or near the surface, are readily discounted. Active seismic measurements are carried out simultaneously but these require that an appropriately accurate independent GPS based time synchronization be used. Various experiences with event detection, orientation of sondes using both explosives and seismic vibrator, potential overheating of the surface electronics, and issues related to loss of shore power provide for a detailed case study. Aquistore, managed by the Petroleum Technology Research Centre, is Canada's first dedicated CO2 storage project, and is an integral component of SaskPower's Boundary Dam Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Demonstration project - the world's first fully integrated CCS demonstration project from a coal-fired power plant.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

Swarm observation of field-aligned current and electric field in multiple arc systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Knudsen, D. J.; Gillies, M.; Donovan, E.; Burchill, J. K.

2017-12-01

It is often thought that auroral arcs are a direct consequence of upward field-aligned currents. In fact, the relation between currents and brightness is more complicated. Multiple auroral arc systems provide and opportunity to study this relation in detail. In this study, we have identified two types of FAC configurations in multiple parallel arc systems using ground-based optical data from the THEMIS all-sky imagers (ASIs), magnetometers and electric field instruments onboard the Swarm satellites during the period from December 2013 to March 2015. In type 1 events, each arc is an intensification within a broad, unipolar current sheet and downward currents only exist outside the upward current sheet. These types of events are termed "unipolar FAC" events. In type 2 events, multiple arc systems represent a collection of multiple up/down current pairs, which are termed as "multipolar FAC" events. Comparisons of these two types of FAC events are presented with 17 "unipolar FAC" events and 12 "multipolar FAC" events. The results show that "unipolar FAC" and "multipolar FAC" events have systematic differences in terms of MLT, arc width and separation, and dependence on substorm onset time. For "unipolar FAC" events, significant electric field enhancements are shown on the edges of the broad upward current sheet. Electric field fluctuations inside the multiple arc system can be large or small. For "multipolar FAC" events, a strong correlation between magnetic and electric field indicate uniform conductance within each upward current sheet. The electrodynamical structures of multiple arc systems presented in this paper represents a step toward understanding arc generation.

Assessment of Critical Events Corridors through Multivariate Cascading Outages Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng

2011-10-17

Massive blackouts of electrical power systems in North America over the past decade has focused increasing attention upon ways to identify and simulate network events that may potentially lead to widespread network collapse. This paper summarizes a method to simulate power-system vulnerability to cascading failures to a supplied set of initiating events synonymously termed as Extreme Events. The implemented simulation method is currently confined to simulating steady state power-system response to a set of extreme events. The outlined method of simulation is meant to augment and provide a new insight into bulk power transmission network planning that at present remainsmore » mainly confined to maintaining power system security for single and double component outages under a number of projected future network operating conditions. Although one of the aims of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of simulating network vulnerability to cascading outages, a more important goal has been to determine vulnerable parts of the network that may potentially be strengthened in practice so as to mitigate system susceptibility to cascading failures. This paper proposes to demonstrate a systematic approach to analyze extreme events and identify vulnerable system elements that may be contributing to cascading outages. The hypothesis of critical events corridors is proposed to represent repeating sequential outages that can occur in the system for multiple initiating events. The new concept helps to identify system reinforcements that planners could engineer in order to 'break' the critical events sequences and therefore lessen the likelihood of cascading outages. This hypothesis has been successfully validated with a California power system model.« less

Detection of planets in extremely weak central perturbation microlensing events via next-generation ground-based surveys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chung, Sun-Ju; Lee, Chung-Uk; Koo, Jae-Rim, E-mail: sjchung@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: leecu@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: koojr@kasi.re.kr

2014-04-20

Even though the recently discovered high-magnification event MOA-2010-BLG-311 had complete coverage over its peak, confident planet detection did not happen due to extremely weak central perturbations (EWCPs, fractional deviations of ≲ 2%). For confident detection of planets in EWCP events, it is necessary to have both high cadence monitoring and high photometric accuracy better than those of current follow-up observation systems. The next-generation ground-based observation project, Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet), satisfies these conditions. We estimate the probability of occurrence of EWCP events with fractional deviations of ≤2% in high-magnification events and the efficiency of detecting planets in the EWCPmore » events using the KMTNet. From this study, we find that the EWCP events occur with a frequency of >50% in the case of ≲ 100 M {sub E} planets with separations of 0.2 AU ≲ d ≲ 20 AU. We find that for main-sequence and sub-giant source stars, ≳ 1 M {sub E} planets in EWCP events with deviations ≤2% can be detected with frequency >50% in a certain range that changes with the planet mass. However, it is difficult to detect planets in EWCP events of bright stars like giant stars because it is easy for KMTNet to be saturated around the peak of the events because of its constant exposure time. EWCP events are caused by close, intermediate, and wide planetary systems with low-mass planets and close and wide planetary systems with massive planets. Therefore, we expect that a much greater variety of planetary systems than those already detected, which are mostly intermediate planetary systems, regardless of the planet mass, will be significantly detected in the near future.« less

Theoretical analysis to interpret projected image data from in-situ 3-dimensional equiaxed nucleation and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, Robin P.; McFadden, Shaun

2017-12-01

In-situ observation of crystal growth in transparent media allows us to observe solidification phase change in real-time. These systems are analogous to opaque systems such as metals. The interpretation of transient 2-dimensional area projections from 3-dimensional phase change phenomena occurring in a bulky sample is problematic due to uncertainty of impingement and hidden nucleation events; in stereology this problem is known as over-projection. This manuscript describes and demonstrates a continuous model for nucleation and growth using the well-established Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov model, and provides a method to relate 3-dimensional volumetric data (nucleation events, volume fraction) to observed data in a 2-dimensional projection (nucleation count, area fraction). A parametric analysis is performed; the projection phenomenon is shown to be significant in cases where nucleation is occurring continuously with a relatively large variance. In general, area fraction on a projection plane will overestimate the volume fraction within the sample and the nuclei count recorded on the projection plane will underestimate the number of real nucleation events. The statistical framework given in this manuscript provides a methodology to deal with the differences between the observed (projected) data and the real (volumetric) measures.

Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ly, Vickie; Gao, Michael; Cary, Cheryl; Turnbull-Appell, Sophie; Surunis, Anton

2016-01-01

The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.

The ALICE TPC Upgrad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, Andrew; Alice-Usa Collaboration; Alice-Tpc Collaboration

2017-09-01

The Time Projection Chamber (TPC) currently used for ALICE (A Large Ion Collider Experiment at CERN) is a gaseous tracking detector used to study both proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) In order to accommodate the higher luminosit collisions planned for the LHC Run-3 starting in 2021, the ALICE-TPC will undergo a major upgrade during the next LHC shut down. The TPC is limited to a read out of 1000 Hz in minimum bias events due to the intrinsic dead time associated with back ion flow in the multi wire proportional chambers (MWPC) in the TPC. The TPC upgrade will handle the increase in event readout to 50 kHz for heavy ion minimum bias triggered events expected with the Run-3 luminosity by switching the MWPCs to a stack of four Gaseous Electron Multiplier (GEM) foils. The GEM layers will combine different hole pitches to reduce the dead time while maintaining the current spatial and energy resolution of the existing TPC. Undertaking the upgrade of the TPC represents a massive endeavor in terms of design, production, construction, quality assurance, and installation, thus the upgrade is coordinated over a number of institutes worldwide. The talk will go over the physics motivation for the upgrade, the ALICE-USA contribution to the construction of Inner Read Out Chambers IROCs, and QA from the first chambers built in the U.S

DRIHM Project: Floods in Serbia in May 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivkovic, Marija; Dimitrijevic, Vladimir; Dekic, Ljiljana; Mihalovic, Ana; Pejanovic, Goran

2015-04-01

The central parts of Balkans were affected with very deep cyclone named "Tamara" form 13th until 16th of May. Stations in western parts of Serbia recorded precipitation four times greater than average precipitation sums. Two third of that amount has felt in three days. Devastating floods occurred on Sava, Kolubara and Jadar river basins causing damage of 1.7 billion Euros, and loss of 24 human lives. Three days before the event, a first warning was issued pointing that the precipitation amounts will exceed 40 mm of rain for 12 hours, accompanied with the hydrological information that the water level on Sava and Kolubara rivers will significantly rise. Within the DRIHM project and its e-infrastructure it was possible to test a combination of different Numerical Weather Prediction models together with stochastic downscaling algorithms to enable the production of more effective quantitative rainfall predictions for this severe meteorological event. Hydrometeorological models in DRIHM are building blocks that can be easily linked together in a form of hydrometeorological chain. For this case the HBV model, distributed hydrological model, was used as the hydrological component in the model chain and RainFARM as stochastic downscaling tool. Results obtained with these models are shown and compared with Hyprom, one of the hydrological models also used in RHMSS with the aim of scoping the current capabilities for the early warning of the extreme events. The information where and when the High Impact Weather Event (HIWE) can occur is very important for the proper overview of the possible overall influence. Different precipitation distribution both in space and in time is allowing us to estimate the future state of the system but also to see the range of the possible outcomes.

Quantifying the Impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño Event on California's Historic Drought to Improve Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zajic, B. N.; Lawrence, J.; Gutowski, L.; Rousseau, N. J.; Reager, J. T., II; Jackson, M. E.; Laber, J. L.; Dumas, J. L.

2016-12-01

2015 marked the arrival of the strongest El Niño ever recorded, surpassing the 1997-1998 event that brought significant precipitation to the southwestern United States. As sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific increased, it was forecasted that the 2015 event may have similar effects and alleviate what the US Drought Monitor classified as "exceptional" drought across the majority of the state of California. However, the impacts of the drought, now in its fifth year, continue to strain California water supplies. This study utilized data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Earth Observation, meteorological ground observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reservoir levels from the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to better quantify impacts of the 2015-16 El Niño event in the state of California. Specifically, monthly measurements of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from GRACE allowed for a more complete estimate of drought recovery throughout the state over the course of the 2016 water year. TWS was correlated with NOAA precipitation data (nClimDiv) in order to quantify the total current water deficit across the state. This relationship also permits the projection of future drought in California under various possible ENSO-driven precipitation scenarios. While analysis shows that ONI is not a sufficient metric for forecasting precipitation on a statewide basis, the various scenarios provide insight into the potential future of California's aggregated water resources. With drought in the Southwestern US projected to increase in general intensity, frequency, and duration, quantitative assessments of statewide water resources are becoming increasingly important. NASA GRACE TWS hydrological data presents a uniquely integrated measure to inform resource managers and decision makers.

Methotrexate in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in Spain: Subanalysis of the AR Excellence project.

PubMed

Tornero-Molina, Jesús; Andreu, José Luis; Martín-Martínez, María-Auxiliadora; Corominas, Héctor; Pérez Venegas, José Javier; Román-Ivorra, José Andrés; Sánchez-Alonso, Fernando

2017-12-19

The AR Excellence project evaluates clinical monitoring in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Spain. The aim of the study was to analyze the use of methotrexate (MTX) in the AR Excellence cohort and to compare it with current recommendations. We collected data from RA patients who initiated treatment with MTX. They included demographics, dose and routes of administration, switching among them, highest dose in each route, combinations with other disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), time to combination with another DMARD (either conventional or biological) and adverse events. Six hundred twenty-five patients with RA (mean age 55 years; 70.6% women) were included, with an average disease duration of 21 months. Ninety percent of the patients initiated treatment with MTX. Therapy was begun with a mean dose of 11mg per week; this initial dose was increased in 58% of the individuals. The average time to reach the full dose of MTX (20mg a week) was 6,67 months. Time to combination of MTX with another DMARD, either synthetic or biological, was 3 months. In all, 67.4% of the patients received oral MTX and the route was subcutaneous in 18.6%. In 12% of the cases, there was a change in the route of administration after a period of 6 months. In 544 patients, folate supplements were added to MTX; MTX-related adverse events were detected in 17.3% of the patients. MTX is currently the pivotal treatment in RA. The subanalysis of the AR Excellence project demonstrates that MTX escalation to its full doses is not done with adequate speed. The subcutaneous route is used in a small proportion of patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

Towards socio-hydroinformatics: optimal design and integration of citizen-based information in water-system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomatine, Dimitri; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon Hurtado, Juan Carlos

2017-04-01

Traditionally, static physical sensors are used to calibrate, validate or update water-system models by water authorities to reduce predictive uncertainty. However, the main problem is scarcity of data in both spatial and temporal domains due to costly maintenance and personnel. On the other hand, the use of low-cost sensor to measure hydrological variables in a more distributed and crowdsourced way is currently expanding and creating a fertile ground to the spread of citizen observatories activities and citizen science projects. Among different citizen sciences projects, the EU-funded projects WeSenseIt (www.wesenseit.eu) and GroundTruth (www.gt20.eu) aim at developing technologies and tools supporting creation of citizen observatories. A drawback of using crowdsourced observations is related to their intrinsic uncertainty and variable life span. Current flood forecasting applications limit the use of crowdsourced observations. Although some efforts to validate model results against these observations have been made, these are mainly done in a post-event analysis. Socio-hydroinformatics aims to integrate hydroinformatics tools and citizen observatories to achieve a dynamic and bidirectional feedbacks between coupled human-water systems. On the one hand, the main technical motivation of socio-hydroinformatics is to fill the gap in hydrological applications regarding the optimal use of crowdsourced observations not only in post-event analyses but in also in real time by their optimal assimilation. On the other hand, the social motivation is to bring citizens closer to decision-making processes and to understand how their participation in the model development process could improve models. In this study, different methods were developed and implemented to optimally design networks of dynamic sensors and assimilate crowdsourced observations, with varying spatial and temporal coverage, into hydrological and hydraulic models. This very first study of socio-hydroinformatics can be a potential application demonstrates that citizens not only play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, but also help to improve models and thus increase flood resilience.

An exemplary developing astronomy movement in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, Sudeep

2015-03-01

Astronomy and space science education had been given least importance by Nepalese government in the past. The modern astronomy movement is believed to have started when an official observation programme of Haley's comet was organized by Royal Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (RONAST) in 1986. Following the huge pressure from the scientific community, the Nepal government (Kingdom of Nepal at that time) established B.P. Koirala Memorial Planetarium, Observatory and Science Museum Development Board in 1992. Initiatives of the project started with observatory set up and the development of astrophysics syllabus for university students. Astrophysics is included as an elective paper in the Physics masters course. The lead astrophysicist of Nepal Dr. Binil Aryal is running a research group in Tribhuvan University since 2005 which has a significant number of international publications. The developing government initiatives and achievements will be discussed. In 2007, a group of astronomy enthusiastic students along with amateurs working independently in past established Nepal Astronomical Society (NASO), which surprisingly increased the amateur activities and inspired other amateur groups to revive. During IYA 2009, more than 80 outreach and observation events were organized solely by NASO. NASO was able to collaborate with many international programmes and projects like GHOU/GTTP, EurAstro, AWB, UNAWE, SGAC, Star Peace, TWAN etc during and beyond IYA2009. Currently Nepal is recognized as the most eventful country of outreach and astronomy education among the amateur community. The success story of the astronomy movement and the local difficulties while organizing the events will be explained.

Reaching Beyond The Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Mariah; Rosenthal, L.; Gaughan, A.; Hopkins, E.

2014-01-01

Strawbridge Observatory at Haverford College is home to a undergraduate-led public observing program. Our program holds ~once monthly public events throughout the academic year that take advantage of eyepiece observing on our 16-inch and 12-inch telescopes as well as of the classroom, library, and projection system. These resources allow us to organize a variety of astronomy related activities that are engaging for individuals of all ages: accessible student talks, current film screenings and even arts and crafts for the families who attend with young children. These events aim to spark curiosity in others about scientific discovery and about the remarkable nature of the world in which we live. In addition to exciting local families about astronomy, this program has excited Haverford students from a range of disciplines about both science and education. Being entirely student led means that we are able to take the initiative in planning, coordinating and running all events, fostering an atmosphere of collaboration, experimentation and commitment amongst our volunteers. Additionally, this program is one of the few at Haverford that regularly reaches beyond the campus walls to promote and build relationships with the outside community. In light of this, our program presents a distinctive and enlightening opportunity for student volunteers: we get to use our scientific backgrounds to educate a general audience, while also learning from them about how to communicate and inspire in others the excitement we feel about the subject of astronomy. The work on this project has been supported by NSF AST-1151462.

Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Felicity S.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Marsland, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

2017-03-01

Coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) simulate a diverse range of El Niño-Southern Oscillation behaviors. "Double peaked" El Niño events—where two separate centers of positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies evolve concurrently in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific—have been evidenced in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 CGCMs and are without precedent in observations. The characteristic CGCM double peaked El Niño may be mistaken for a central Pacific warming event in El Niño composites, shifted westwards due to the cold tongue bias. In results from the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model, we find that the western Pacific warm peak of the double peaked El Niño event emerges due to an excessive westward extension of the climatological cold tongue, displacing the region of strong zonal SST gradients towards the west Pacific. A coincident westward shift in the zonal current anomalies reinforces the western peak in SST anomalies, leading to a zonal separation between the warming effect of zonal advection (in the west Pacific) and that of vertical advection (in the east Pacific). Meridional advection and net surface heat fluxes further drive growth of the western Pacific warm peak. Our results demonstrate that understanding historical CGCM El Niño behaviors is a necessary precursor to interpreting projections of future CGCM El Niño behaviors, such as changes in the frequency of eastern Pacific El Niño events, under global warming scenarios.

Sequence Analysis and Characterization of Active Human Alu Subfamilies Based on the 1000 Genomes Pilot Project.

PubMed

Konkel, Miriam K; Walker, Jerilyn A; Hotard, Ashley B; Ranck, Megan C; Fontenot, Catherine C; Storer, Jessica; Stewart, Chip; Marth, Gabor T; Batzer, Mark A

2015-08-29

The goal of the 1000 Genomes Consortium is to characterize human genome structural variation (SV), including forms of copy number variations such as deletions, duplications, and insertions. Mobile element insertions, particularly Alu elements, are major contributors to genomic SV among humans. During the pilot phase of the project we experimentally validated 645 (611 intergenic and 34 exon targeted) polymorphic "young" Alu insertion events, absent from the human reference genome. Here, we report high resolution sequencing of 343 (322 unique) recent Alu insertion events, along with their respective target site duplications, precise genomic breakpoint coordinates, subfamily assignment, percent divergence, and estimated A-rich tail lengths. All the sequenced Alu loci were derived from the AluY lineage with no evidence of retrotransposition activity involving older Alu families (e.g., AluJ and AluS). AluYa5 is currently the most active Alu subfamily in the human lineage, followed by AluYb8, and many others including three newly identified subfamilies we have termed AluYb7a3, AluYb8b1, and AluYa4a1. This report provides the structural details of 322 unique Alu variants from individual human genomes collectively adding about 100 kb of genomic variation. Many Alu subfamilies are currently active in human populations, including a surprising level of AluY retrotransposition. Human Alu subfamilies exhibit continuous evolution with potential drivers sprouting new Alu lineages. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Gravitational Microlensing Events as a Target for the SETI project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahvar, Sohrab

2016-09-01

The detection of signals from a possible extrasolar technological civilization is one of the most challenging efforts of science. In this work, we propose using natural telescopes made of single or binary gravitational lensing systems to magnify leakage of electromagnetic signals from a remote planet that harbors Extraterrestrial Intelligent (ETI) technology. Currently, gravitational microlensing surveys are monitoring a large area of the Galactic bulge to search for microlensing events, finding more than 2000 events per year. These lenses are capable of playing the role of natural telescopes, and, in some instances, they can magnify radio band signals from planets orbiting around the source stars in gravitational microlensing systems. Assuming that the frequency of electromagnetic waves used for telecommunication in ETIs is similar to ours, we propose follow-up observation of microlensing events with radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), the Low Frequency Demonstrators, and the Mileura Wide-Field Array. Amplifying signals from the leakage of broadcasting by an Earth-like civilization will allow us to detect them as far as the center of the Milky Way galaxy. Our analysis shows that in binary microlensing systems, the probability of amplification of signals from ETIs is more than that in single microlensing events. Finally, we propose the use of the target of opportunity mode for follow-up observations of binary microlensing events with SKA as a new observational program for searching ETIs. Using optimistic values for the factors of the Drake equation provides detection of about one event per year.

A Model for Teaching a Climate Change Elective Science Course at the Community College Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.

2012-12-01

The impact of global climate change is far-reaching, both for humanity and for the environment. It is essential that our students be provided a strong scientific background for the role of natural and human caused climate change so that they are better prepared to become involved in the discussion. Here the author reveals a successful model designed for use with a diverse student body at the community college level. Teaching strategies beyond the traditional lecture and exam style include: web-based resources such as static websites along with dynamic blogging tools, post-lecture cooperative learning review sessions, weekly current event research projects, use of rubrics to assist students in their own project evaluation before submission, and a research paper utilizing the Skeptical Science website to examine the validity of the most common climate change myths.

Current status of Polish Fireball Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiśniewski, M.; Żołądek, P.; Olech, A.; Tyminski, Z.; Maciejewski, M.; Fietkiewicz, K.; Rudawska, R.; Gozdalski, M.; Gawroński, M. P.; Suchodolski, T.; Myszkiewicz, M.; Stolarz, M.; Polakowski, K.

2017-09-01

The Polish Fireball Network (PFN) is a project to monitor regularly the sky over Poland in order to detect bright fireballs. In 2016 the PFN consisted of 36 continuously active stations with 57 sensitive analogue video cameras and 7 high resolution digital cameras. In our observations we also use spectroscopic and radio techniques. A PyFN software package for trajectory and orbit determination was developed. The PFN project is an example of successful participation of amateur astronomers who can provide valuable scientific data. The network is coordinated by astronomers from Copernicus Astronomical Centre in Warsaw, Poland. In 2011-2015 the PFN cameras recorded 214,936 meteor events. Using the PFN data and the UFOOrbit software 34,609 trajectories and orbits were calculated. In the following years we are planning intensive modernization of the PFN network including installation of dozens of new digital cameras.

Nearshore Coastal Dynamics on a Sea-Breeze Dominated Micro-Tidal Beach (NCSAL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Puleo, J. A.; Ruiz de Alegría-Arzaburu, A.; Figlus, J.; Mendoza, T.; Pintado-Patino, J. C.; Pieterse, A.; Chardon-Maldonado, P.; DiCosmo, N. R.; Wellman, N.; Garcia-Nava, H.; Palemón-Arcos, L.; Roberts, T.; López-González, J.; Bravo, M.; Ojeda, E.; Medellín, G.; Appendini, C. M.; Figueroa, B.; González-Leija, M.; Enriquez, C.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Salles, P.

2014-12-01

A comprehensive field experiment devoted to the study of coastal processes on a micro-tidal beach was conducted from March 30th to April 12th 2014 in Sisal, Yucatán México. Wave conditions in the study area are controlled by local (i.e., sea-breezes) and meso-scale (i.e., Nortes) meteorological events. Simultaneous measurements of waves, tides, winds, currents, sediment transport, runup, and beach morphology were obtained in this experiment. Very dense nearshore instrumentation arrays allow us the study of the cross-/along- shore variability of surf/swash zone dynamics during different forcing conditions. Strong sea-breeze wind events produced a diurnal cycle with a maximum wind speed of 14 m/s. The persistent sea-breeze system forces small-amplitude (Hs<1 m) short-period (Tp<4 s) NE waves approaching with a high incidence wave angle. These wave conditions drive westward alongshore currents of up to 0.6 m/s in the inner surf zone and hence produce an active sediment transport in the swash zone. On the other hand, the more energetic (Hs>1 m) Norte event, lasting 48 hours, reached the coast on April 8th generating a long-period swell (Tp>10 s) arriving from the NNW. This event induced an eastward net sediment transport across a wide surf zone. However, long-term observations of sand impoundment at a groin located near the study area suggests that the net sediment transport in the northern Yucatan peninsula is controlled by sea-breeze events and hence swash zone dynamics play an important role in the net sediment budget of this region. A comparative study of surf and swash zone dynamics during both sea-breeze and Norte events will be presented. The Institute of Engineering of UNAM, throughout an International Collaborative Project with the University of Delaware, and CONACYT (CB-167692) provided financial support. The first author acknowledges ONR Global for providing financial support throughout the Visiting Scientist Program.

Ring Current Pressure Estimation withRAM-SCB using Data Assimilation and VanAllen Probe Flux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godinez, H. C.; Yu, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Larsen, B.; Jordanova, V.

2015-12-01

Capturing and subsequently modeling the influence of tail plasma injections on the inner magnetosphere is particularly important for understanding the formation and evolution of Earth's ring current. In this study, the ring current distribution is estimated with the Ring Current-Atmosphere Interactions Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) using, for the first time, data assimilation techniques and particle flux data from the Van Allen Probes. The state of the ring current within the RAM-SCB is corrected via an ensemble based data assimilation technique by using proton flux from one of the Van Allen Probes, to capture the enhancement of ring current following an isolated substorm event on July 18 2013. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of the ring current particle distributions in the RAM-SCB model, leading to better agreement with observations. This newly implemented data assimilation technique in the global modeling of the ring current thus provides a promising tool to better characterize the effect of substorm injections in the near-Earth regions. The work is part of the Space Hazards Induced near Earth by Large, Dynamic Storms (SHIELDS) project in Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?

PubMed

Mills, David M

2009-01-01

Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health. A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States. Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal. Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.

Observed and modeled tsunami current velocities in Humboldt Bay and Crescent City Harbor, northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Admire, A. R.; Dengler, L.; Crawford, G. B.; uslu, B. U.; Montoya, J.

2012-12-01

A pilot project was initiated in 2009 in Humboldt Bay, about 370 kilometers (km) north of San Francisco, California, to measure the currents produced by tsunamis. Northern California is susceptible to both near- and far-field tsunamis and has a historic record of damaging events. Crescent City Harbor, located approximately 100 km north of Humboldt Bay, suffered US 20 million in damages from strong currents produced by the 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami and an additional US 20 million from the 2011 Japan tsunami. In order to better evaluate these currents in northern California, we deployed a Nortek Aquadopp 600kHz 2D Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) with a one-minute sampling interval in Humboldt Bay, near the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge station. The instrument recorded the tsunamis produced by the Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake on February 27, 2010 and the Mw 9.0 Japan earthquake on March 11, 2011. Currents from the 2010 tsunami persisted in Humboldt Bay for at least 30 hours with peak amplitudes of about 0.3 meters per second (m/s). The 2011 tsunami signal lasted for over 86 hours with peak amplitude of 0.95 m/s. Strongest currents corresponded to the maximum change in water level as recorded on the NOAA NOS tide gauge, and occurred 90 minutes after the initial wave arrival. No damage was observed in Humboldt Bay for either event. In Crescent City, currents for the first three and a half hours of the 2011 Japan tsunami were estimated using security camera video footage from the Harbor Master building across from the entrance to the small boat basin, approximately 70 meters away from the NOAA NOS tide gauge station. The largest amplitude tide gauge water-level oscillations and most of the damage occurred within this time window. The currents reached a velocity of approximately 4.5 m/s and six cycles exceeded 3 m/s during this period. Measured current velocities both in Humboldt Bay and in Crescent City were compared to calculated velocities from the Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) numerical model. For Humboldt Bay, the 2010 model tsunami frequencies matched the actual values for the first two hours after the initial arrival however the amplitudes were underestimated by approximately 65%. MOST replicated the first four hours of the 2011 tsunami signal in Humboldt Bay quite well although the peak flood currents were underestimated by about 50%. MOST predicted attenuation of the signal after four hours but the actual signal persisted at a nearly constant level for more than 48 hours. In Crescent City, the model prediction of the 2011 frequency agreed quite well with the observed signal for the first two and a half hours after the initial arrival with a 50% underestimation of the peak amplitude. The results from this project demonstrate that ADCPs can effectively record tsunami currents for small to moderate events and can be used to calibrate and validate models (i.e. MOST) in order to better predict hazardous tsunami conditions and improve planned responses to protect lives and property, especially within harbors. An ADCP will be installed in Crescent City Harbor and four additional ADCPs are being deployed in Humboldt Bay during the fall of 2012.

Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

2017-04-01

The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local-scale view of the extent and depth of possible riverine flood events several days in advance by linking forecast river flow from a hydrological model to a global flood risk map. The Monitoring component provides a similar local-scale view of a flood inundation extent but in near real time, as an event unfolds, by combining the global flood risk map with observed river gauge telemetry. Immediately following an event, the maximum extent of the flood is also generated. Users of Flood Foresight will be able to receive current and forecast flood extents and depth information via API into their own GIS or analytics software. The set of tools is currently operational for the UK and Europe; the methods presented can be applied globally, allowing provision of service to any country or region. This project was supported by InnovateUK under the Solving Business Problems with Environmental Data competition.

Improvement of IDC/CTBTO Event Locations in Latin America and the Caribbean Using a Regional Seismic Travel Time Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Given, J. W.; Guendel, F.

2013-05-01

The International Data Centre is a vital element of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification mechanism. The fundamental mission of the International Data Centre (IDC) is to collect, process, and analyze monitoring data and to present results as event bulletins to Member States. For the IDC and in particular for waveform technologies, a key measure of the quality of its products is the accuracy by which every detected event is located. Accurate event location is crucial for purposes of an On Site Inspection (OSI), which would confirm the conduct of a nuclear test. Thus it is important for the IDC monitoring and data analysis to adopt new processing algorithms that improve the accuracy of event location. Among them the development of new algorithms to compute regional seismic travel times through 3-dimensional models have greatly increased IDC's location precision, the reduction of computational time, allowing forward and inverse modeling of large data sets. One of these algorithms has been the Regional Seismic Travel Time model (RSTT) of Myers et al., (2011). The RSTT model is nominally a global model; however, it currently covers only North America and Eurasia in sufficient detail. It is the intention CTBTO's Provisional Technical Secretariat and the IDC to extend the RSTT model to other regions of the earth, e.g. Latin America-Caribbean, Africa and Asia. This is particularly important for the IDC location procedure, as there are regions of the earth for which crustal models are not well constrained. For this purpose IDC has launched a RSTT initiative. In May 2012, a technical meeting was held in Vienna under the auspices of the CTBTO. The purpose of this meeting was to invite National Data Centre experts as well as network operators from Africa, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, Latin and North America to discuss the context under which a project to extend the RSTT model would be implemented. A total of 41 participants from 32 Member States were present. The Latin America and Caribbean region with a rapidly expanding group of advanced seismic networks was selected as a pilot project for the implementation of a regional RSTT initiative. This poster will assess the actions taken by the IDC in order to advance the RSTT project in the Latin America and Caribbean Region.

Electrodynamic Context of Magnetopause Dynamics Observed by Magnetospheric Multiscale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Brian J.; Russell, Christopher T.; Strangeway, Robert J.; Plaschke, Ferdinand; Magnes, Werner; Fischer, David; Korth, Haje; Merkin, Viacheslav G.; Barnes, Robin J.; Waters, Colin L.;

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Risk Balance: A Key Tool for Mission Operations Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryant, Larry W.; Faris, Grant B.

2011-01-01

The Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) discipline actively participates as a project member to achieve their common objective of full mission success while also providing an independent risk assessment to the Project Manager and Office of Safety and Mission Success staff. The cornerstone element of MOA is the independent assessment of the risks the project faces in executing its mission. Especially as the project approaches critical mission events, it becomes imperative to clearly identify and assess the risks the project faces. Quite often there are competing options for the project to select from in deciding how to execute the event. An example includes choices between proven but aging hardware components and unused but unproven components. Timing of the event with respect to visual or telecommunications visibility can be a consideration in the case of Earth reentry or hazardous maneuver events. It is in such situations that MOA is called upon for a risk balance assessment or risk trade study to support their recommendation to the Project Manager for a specific option to select. In the following paragraphs we consider two such assessments, one for the Stardust capsule Earth return and the other for the choice of telecommunications system configuration for the EPOXI flyby of the comet Hartley 2. We discuss the development of the trade space for each project's scenario and characterize the risks of each possible option. The risk characterization we consider includes a determination of the severity or consequence of each risk if realized and the likelihood of its occurrence. We then examine the assessment process to arrive at a MOA recommendation. Finally we review each flight project's decision process and the outcome of their decisions.

Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme climatic events, such as intense heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, can dramatically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and more extreme events are projected with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of these events for biological invasions, which themselves...

Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC, year 2 quarter 1 progress report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lottes, S.A.; Bojanowski, C.; Shen, J.

2012-04-09

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) focus areas at Argonne's Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) initiated a project to support and compliment the experimental programs at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) with high performance computing based analysis capabilities in August 2010. The project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at TFHRC for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. Themore » analysis methods employ well-benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focus of the project are wind and water effects on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to improve design allowing for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, CFD analysis of the operation of the wind tunnel in the TFHRC wind engineering laboratory. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of October through December 2011.« less

Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC, year 2 quarter 2 progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lottes, S.A.; Bojanowski, C.; Shen, J.

2012-06-28

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) focus areas at Argonne's Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) initiated a project to support and compliment the experimental programs at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) with high performance computing based analysis capabilities in August 2010. The project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at TFHRC for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. Themore » analysis methods employ well benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focus of the project are wind and water effects on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to improve design allowing for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, CFD analysis of the operation of the wind tunnel in the TFHRC wind engineering laboratory. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of January through March 2012.« less

Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC, year 1 quarter 3 progress report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lottes, S.A.; Kulak, R.F.; Bojanowski, C.

2011-08-26

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) focus areas at Argonne's Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) initiated a project to support and compliment the experimental programs at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) with high performance computing based analysis capabilities in August 2010. The project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at TFHRC for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. Themore » analysis methods employ well-benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focus of the project are wind and water loads on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to assess them for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, vehicle stability under high wind loading, and the use of electromagnetic shock absorbers to improve vehicle stability under high wind conditions. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of April through June 2011.« less

Projected climatic changes on drought conditions over Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in order to obtain current (1980-2010) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) climate output fields. WRF model was used over a domain that spans the Iberian Peninsula with a spatial resolution of 0.088°, and nested in the coarser 0.44° EURO-CORDEX domain, and driving by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1), using two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Besides, to examine the behavior of this drought index, a comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which does not consider the evapotranspiration effects, was also performed. Additionally the relationship between the SPEI index and the soil moisture has also been analyzed. The results of this study suggest an increase in the severity and duration of drought, being larger when the SPEI index is used to define drought events. This fact confirms the relevance of taking into account the evapotranspiration processes to detect future drought events. The results also show a noticeable relationship between the SPEI and the simulated soil moisture content, which is more significant at higher timescales. Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Projections, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Bronzan, J.; Rodehorst, B.; Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Savonis, M.; Wiles, R.

2015-12-01

Many states are already experiencing the costly impacts of extreme climate and weather events. The occurrence, frequency and intensity of these events may change under future climates. Preparing for these changes takes time, and state government agencies and communities need to recognize the risks they could potentially face and the response actions already undertaken. The States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card project is the first-ever study that quantifies five climate-change-driven hazards, and the relevant state government response actions in each of the 50 states. The changing characteristics of extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland and coastal flooding were assessed for the baseline period (around year 2000) through the years 2030 and 2050 across all 50 states. Bias-corrected statistically-downscaled (BCSD) climate projections (Reclamation, 2013) and hydrology projections (Reclamation, 2014) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 were used. The climate change response action analysis covers five critical sectors: Transportation, Energy, Water, Human Health and Communities. It examined whether there is evidence that the state is taking action to (1) reduce current risks, (2) raise its awareness of future risks, (3) plan for adaptation to the future risks, and (4) implement specific actions to reduce future risks for each applicable hazards. Results from the two analyses were aggregated and translated into a rating system that standardizes assessments across states, which can be easily understood by both technical and non-technical audiences. The findings in this study not only serve as a screening tool for states to recognize the hazards they could potentially face as climate changes, but also serve as a roadmap for states to address the gaps in response actions, and to improve climate preparedness and resilience.

Scenarios of atmospheric rivers affecting Western Europe during the XXI Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

Extreme precipitation events in Europe during the winter half of the year have major socio-economic impacts associated with floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. In recent years, a number of works have shed new light on the role played by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in Europe as was the case in major historical floods in Duero (Pereira et al., 2016) and Tagus (Trigo et al., 2015) rivers in Iberia. We analyse ARs reaching Europe, for the extended winter months (October to March), in simulations from six CMIP5 global climate models (CGMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980-2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074- 2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980-2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia (Ramos et al., 2016). References: Pereira et al., (2016) Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371-390. Ramos et al., (2016) Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9315-9323. Trigo et al., (2015) The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis, Front. Earth Sci. 2:3. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning (PTDC/ATPGEO/1660/2014) funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

The Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic Infections (VIZIONS): A Strategic Approach to Studying Emerging Zoonotic Infectious Diseases.

PubMed

Rabaa, Maia A; Tue, Ngo Tri; Phuc, Tran My; Carrique-Mas, Juan; Saylors, Karen; Cotten, Matthew; Bryant, Juliet E; Nghia, Ho Dang Trung; Cuong, Nguyen Van; Pham, Hong Anh; Berto, Alessandra; Phat, Voong Vinh; Dung, Tran Thi Ngoc; Bao, Long Hoang; Hoa, Ngo Thi; Wertheim, Heiman; Nadjm, Behzad; Monagin, Corina; van Doorn, H Rogier; Rahman, Motiur; Tra, My Phan Vu; Campbell, James I; Boni, Maciej F; Tam, Pham Thi Thanh; van der Hoek, Lia; Simmonds, Peter; Rambaut, Andrew; Toan, Tran Khanh; Van Vinh Chau, Nguyen; Hien, Tran Tinh; Wolfe, Nathan; Farrar, Jeremy J; Thwaites, Guy; Kellam, Paul; Woolhouse, Mark E J; Baker, Stephen

2015-12-01

The effect of newly emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in human populations can be potentially catastrophic, and large-scale investigations of such diseases are highly challenging. The monitoring of emergence events is subject to ascertainment bias, whether at the level of species discovery, emerging disease events, or disease outbreaks in human populations. Disease surveillance is generally performed post hoc, driven by a response to recent events and by the availability of detection and identification technologies. Additionally, the inventory of pathogens that exist in mammalian and other reservoirs is incomplete, and identifying those with the potential to cause disease in humans is rarely possible in advance. A major step in understanding the burden and diversity of zoonotic infections, the local behavioral and demographic risks of infection, and the risk of emergence of these pathogens in human populations is to establish surveillance networks in populations that maintain regular contact with diverse animal populations, and to simultaneously characterize pathogen diversity in human and animal populations. Vietnam has been an epicenter of disease emergence over the last decade, and practices at the human/animal interface may facilitate the likelihood of spillover of zoonotic pathogens into humans. To tackle the scientific issues surrounding the origins and emergence of zoonotic infections in Vietnam, we have established The Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic Infections (VIZIONS). This countrywide project, in which several international institutions collaborate with Vietnamese organizations, is combining clinical data, epidemiology, high-throughput sequencing, and social sciences to address relevant one-health questions. Here, we describe the primary aims of the project, the infrastructure established to address our scientific questions, and the current status of the project. Our principal objective is to develop an integrated approach to the surveillance of pathogens circulating in both human and animal populations and assess how frequently they are exchanged. This infrastructure will facilitate systematic investigations of pathogen ecology and evolution, enhance understanding of viral cross-species transmission events, and identify relevant risk factors and drivers of zoonotic disease emergence.

Potentially Preventable Hospital and Emergency Department Events: Lessons from a Large Innovation Project.

PubMed

Solberg, Leif I; Ohnsorg, Kris A; Parker, Emily D; Ferguson, Robert; Magnan, Sanne; Whitebird, Robin R; Neely, Claire; Brandenfels, Emily; Williams, Mark D; Dreskin, Mark; Hinnenkamp, Todd; Ziegenfuss, Jeanette Y

2018-06-04

There are few proven strategies to reduce the frequency of potentially preventable hospitalizations and Emergency Department (ED) visits. To facilitate strategy development, we documented these events among complex patients and the factors that contribute to them in a large care-improvement initiative. Observational study with retrospective audits and selective interviews by the patients' care managers among 12 diverse medical groups in California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Washington that participated in an initiative to implement collaborative care for patients with both depression and either uncontrolled diabetes, uncontrolled hypertension, or both. We reviewed information about 373 adult patients with the required conditions who belonged to these medical groups and had experienced 389 hospitalizations or ED visits during the 12-month study period from March 30, 2014, through March 29, 2015. The main outcome measures were potentially preventable hospitalizations or ED visit events. Of the studied events, 28% were considered to be potentially preventable (39% of ED visits and 14% of hospitalizations) and 4.6% of patients had 40% of events. Only type of insurance coverage; patient lack of resources, caretakers, or understanding of care; and inability to access clinic care were more frequent in those with potentially preventable events. Neither disease control nor ambulatory care-sensitive conditions were associated with potentially preventable events. Among these complex patients, patient characteristics, disease control, and the presence of ambulatory care-sensitive conditions were not associated with likelihood of ED visits or hospital admissions, including those considered to be potentially preventable. The current focus on using ambulatory care-sensitive conditions as a proxy for potentially preventable events needs further evaluation.

Effect of harbor modifications on the tsunami vulnerability of Crescent City, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.

2008-12-01

Crescent City, California has experienced more damaging tsunami events in historic times than any other location on the West Coast of the United States. Thirty-one tsunamis have been observed at Crescent City since a tide gauge was established in 1933, including eleven events with maximum peak to trough wave range exceeding one meter and four that caused damage. The most damaging event occurred in 1964 as a result of the great Alaska earthquake. The ensuing tsunami flooded 29 city blocks and killed 11 in the Crescent City area. As a result of the 1964 tsunami and redevelopment projects, the Crescent City harbor was significantly modified in the early 1970s. A 200 x 300 meter small boat basin was carved into the preexisting shore line, a 123 meter dog leg extension was added to the central breakwater and significant deepening occurred on the eastern side of the harbor. In 2006, a Mw 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril Islands generated a moderate Pacific-wide tsunami. The only location with significant damage was the Crescent City harbor where strong currents damaged docks and boats, causing an estimated 9.2 million (US dollars) in damages. Strong currents estimated by the Harbor Master at 12 knots were observed near the entrance to the small boat basin. Past earthquakes from the northwestern Pacific including the 1933 M 8.3 Sanriku Japan earthquake may have produced similar amplitudes at Crescent City to the 2006 event but caused no damage. We have obtained the pre-modification harbor bathymetry and use the MOST model to compare tsunami water heights and current velocities for the 1933 and 2006 sources using modern and pre- modification bathymetry. We also examine model the 1964 inundation using the actual bathymetry and compare the results to numerical simulations that have only used the modern data.

Social-aware Event Handling within the FallRisk Project.

PubMed

De Backere, Femke; Van den Bergh, Jan; Coppers, Sven; Elprama, Shirley; Nelis, Jelle; Verstichel, Stijn; Jacobs, An; Coninx, Karin; Ongenae, Femke; De Turck, Filip

2017-01-09

With the uprise of the Internet of Things, wearables and smartphones are moving to the foreground. Ambient Assisted Living solutions are, for example, created to facilitate ageing in place. One example of such systems are fall detection systems. Currently, there exists a wide variety of fall detection systems using different methodologies and technologies. However, these systems often do not take into account the fall handling process, which starts after a fall is identified or this process only consists of sending a notification. The FallRisk system delivers an accurate analysis of incidents occurring in the home of the older adults using several sensors and smart devices. Moreover, the input from these devices can be used to create a social-aware event handling process, which leads to assisting the older adult as soon as possible and in the best possible way. The FallRisk system consists of several components, located in different places. When an incident is identified by the FallRisk system, the event handling process will be followed to assess the fall incident and select the most appropriate caregiver, based on the input of the smartphones of the caregivers. In this process, availability and location are automatically taken into account. The event handling process was evaluated during a decision tree workshop to verify if the current day practices reflect the requirements of all the stakeholders. Other knowledge, which is uncovered during this workshop can be taken into account to further improve the process. The FallRisk offers a way to detect fall incidents in an accurate way and uses context information to assign the incident to the most appropriate caregiver. This way, the consequences of the fall are minimized and help is at location as fast as possible. It could be concluded that the current guidelines on fall handling reflect the needs of the stakeholders. However, current technology evolutions, such as the uptake of wearables and smartphones, enables the improvement of these guidelines, such as the automatic ordering of the caregivers based on their location and availability.

Current Events and the International Relations Curriculum: Instructional Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chernotsky, Harry I.

One of the most significant challenges confronting college instructors who teach international politics survey courses is the coverage of current events issues and how to stimulate student interest about the issues. This paper describes two techniques, a current events sweepstakes and a Great Decisions roundtable, designed to infuse current events…

How much are Chevrolet Volts in The EV Project driven in EV Mode?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smart, John

2013-08-01

This report summarizes key conclusions from analysis of data collected from Chevrolet Volts participating in The EV Project. Topics include how many miles are driven in EV mode, how far vehicles are driven between charging events, and how much energy is charged from the electric grid per charging event.

University Partners

Science.gov Websites

ARC Automotive Research Center Home Page HOME PAGE ABOUT ARC ▼ Overview of the ARC Education Partners Visit Us NEWS & EVENTS ▼ Events Calendar Annual Program Review Research Seminar Press Room Archives RESEARCH ▼ Research Areas Ongoing Projects Completed Projects SOFTWARE CONTACT ▼ Primary

Technology Exchange

Science.gov Websites

ARC Automotive Research Center Home Page HOME PAGE ABOUT ARC ▼ Overview of the ARC Education Partners Visit Us NEWS & EVENTS ▼ Events Calendar Annual Program Review Research Seminar Press Room Archives RESEARCH ▼ Research Areas Ongoing Projects Completed Projects SOFTWARE CONTACT ▼ Primary

Mining transportation information from social media for planned and unplanned events.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

The objective of this project is on mining social media data to deduce useful travelers information with : a special emphasis under events, including both planned events (such as sporting games), and : unplanned events (such as traffic accidents)....

The HZE radiation problem. [highly-charged energetic galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimmerling, Walter

1990-01-01

Radiation-exposure limits have yet to be established for missions envisioned in the framework of the Space Exploration Initiative. The radiation threat outside the earth's magnetosphere encompasses protons from solar particle events and the highly charged energetic particles constituting galactic cosmic rays; radiation biology entails careful consideration of the extremely nonuniform patterns of such particles' energy deposition. The ability to project such biological consequences of exposure to energetic particles as carcinogenicity currently involves great uncertainties from: (1) different regions of space; (2) the effects of spacecraft structures; and (3) the dose-effect relationships of single traversals of energetic particles.

NASA Human Research Program Space Radiation Program Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori; Huff, Janice; Patel, Janapriya; Wang, Minli; Hu, Shaowwen; Kidane, Yared; Myung-Hee, Kim; Li, Yongfeng; Nounu, Hatem; Plante, Ianik;

An ecohydrological model to quantify the risk of drought-induced forest mortality events across climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Regional scale drought-induced forest mortality events are projected to become more frequent under future climates due to changes in rainfall patterns. However, the ability to predict the conditions under which such events occur is currently lacking. To quantify and understand the underlying causes of drought-induced forest mortality, we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that explicitly couples tree water and carbon use strategies with climate characteristics, such as the frequency and severity of drought. Using the model and results from a controlled drought experiment, we identify the soil, vegetation, and climate factors that underlie tree water and carbon deficits and, ultimately, the risk of drought-induced forest mortality. This mortality risk is then compared across the spectrum of anisohydric-isohydric stomatal control strategies and a range of rainfall regimes. These results suggest certain soil-plant combinations may maximize the survivable drought length in a given climate. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be expanded to estimate the effect of anticipated climate change on drought-induced forest mortality and associated consequences for forest water and carbon balances.

Tidal Disruption Events: From iPTF to ZTF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Tiara; Gezari, Suvi; Cenko, Bradley; Kulkarni, Shri; Blagorodnova, Nadia; Yan, Lin

2018-01-01

The biggest challenge to finding tidal disruption events (TDEs) in optical transient sky surveys is to get rid of the numerous interlopers such as AGN and Type Ia supernovae that are at least 100 times more common. We will describe our selection process that led to the prompt discoveries of two TDEs (iPTF16axa and iPTF16fnl) in a 4-month long experiment to study nuclear transients in the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) together with UV and X-ray imaging follow-up from our Swift Cycle 12 Key Project. Subsequent multi-wavelength follow-up observations were triggered in order to study these rare events. We found that most of the optically-bright TDEs share similar peak luminosities, light curves, and temperature evolution except iPTF16fnl, which is the nearest, faintest, and fastest optical TDE ever found. Based on our detection rate in iPTF, we expect to discover ~30 TDEs in the first year of the Zwicky Transient Factory (ZTF), doubling the current TDE sample aggregated over ~7 years of wide-field optical surveys.

Evolving Views on a Dynamic Greenhouse Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollis, Chris; Huber, Matthew

2009-06-01

Climatic and Biotic Events of the Paleogene (CBEP 2009) Conference; Wellington, New Zealand, 12-15 January 2009; The Paleogene (65-24 million years ago) was a dynamic period in Earth's history in which major mammal groups became established and diversified, rapid and repeated extreme global warming events occurred, and climate began its stuttering progression from a greenhouse to an icehouse climate state. With atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the range projected to occur over the next several centuries (>1000 parts per million), the Paleogene is also a window into our future (see J. C. Zachos et al., Nature, 451, 279-283, 2008). Long-standing interest in understanding the causes and consequences of global change in the Paleogene and the current timeliness of greenhouse climate research explain why conferences are periodically devoted to the climatic and biotic events of the Paleogene. The 2009 conference, held in New Zealand, attracted 130 participants from 20 countries. Presentations demonstrated substantial progress in new climate proxy development, new multiproxy approaches, and closer integration of paleoclimate records with climate models, consolidating around three main issues.

Meteors Without Borders: a global campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heenatigala, T.

2012-01-01

"Meteors Without Borders" is a global project, organized by Astronomers Without Borders and launched during the Global Astronomy Month in 2010 for the Lyrid meteor shower. The project focused on encouraging amateur astronomy groups to hold public outreach events for major meteor showers, conduct meteor-related classroom activities, photography, poetry and art work. It also uses social-media platforms to connect groups around the world to share their observations and photography, live during the events. At the International Meteor Conference 2011, the progress of the project was presented along with an extended invitation for collaborations for further improvements of the project.

IUS/TUG orbital operations and mission support study. Volume 4: Project planning data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Planning data are presented for the development phases of interim upper stage (IUS) and tug systems. Major project planning requirements, major event schedules, milestones, system development and operations process networks, and relevant support research and technology requirements are included. Topics discussed include: IUS flight software; tug flight software; IUS/tug ground control center facilities, personnel, data systems, software, and equipment; IUS mission events; tug mission events; tug/spacecraft rendezvous and docking; tug/orbiter operations interface, and IUS/orbiter operations interface.

Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Done, J.; Ge, M.

2017-12-01

How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.

Recruiting at the Edge: Kinetic Energy Inhibits Anchovy Populations in the Western Mediterranean

PubMed Central

Ruiz, Javier; Macías, Diego; Rincón, Margarita M.; Pascual, Ananda; Catalán, Ignacio A.; Navarro, Gabriel

2013-01-01

The Strait of Gibraltar replenishes the Mediterranean with Atlantic waters through an intense eastward current known as the Atlantic Jet (AJ). The AJ fertilizes the southwestern Mediterranean and is considered to be the ultimate factor responsible for the comparatively high fish production of this region. Here, we perform an analysis of the available historical catches and catch per unit effort (CPUE), together with a long series of surface currents, kinetic energy and chlorophyll concentration. We show that the high kinetic energy of the AJ increases primary production but also negatively impacts the recruitment of anchovy. We contend that anchovy recruitment in the region is inhibited by the advection and dispersion of larvae and post-larvae during periods of strong advection by the AJ. The inhibitory impact of kinetic energy on anchovy landings is not a transient but rather a persistent state of the system. An exceptional combination of events creates an outbreak of this species in the Alboran Sea. These events depend on the Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange of water masses and, therefore, are highly sensitive to climate changes that are projected, though not always negatively, for fish landings. PMID:23451027

New method for determining central axial orientation of flux rope embedded within current sheet using multipoint measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, ZhaoYu; Chen, Tao; Yan, GuangQing

2016-10-01

A new method for determining the central axial orientation of a two-dimensional coherent magnetic flux rope (MFR) via multipoint analysis of the magnetic-field structure is developed. The method is devised under the following geometrical assumptions: (1) on its cross section, the structure is left-right symmetric; (2) the projected structure velocity is vertical to the line of symmetry. The two conditions can be naturally satisfied for cylindrical MFRs and are expected to be satisfied for MFRs that are flattened within current sheets. The model test demonstrates that, for determining the axial orientation of such structures, the new method is more efficient and reliable than traditional techniques such as minimum-variance analysis of the magnetic field, Grad-Shafranov (GS) reconstruction, and the more recent method based on the cylindrically symmetric assumption. A total of five flux transfer events observed by Cluster are studied using the proposed approach, and the application results indicate that the observed structures, regardless of their actual physical properties, fit the assumed geometrical model well. For these events, the inferred axial orientations are all in excellent agreement with those obtained using the multi-GS reconstruction technique.

Multi-spacecraft solar energetic particle analysis of FERMI gamma-ray flare events within the HESPERIA H2020 project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tziotziou, Kostas; Malandraki, Olga; Valtonen, Eino; Heber, Bernd; Zucca, Pietro; Klein, Karl-Ludwig; Vainio, Rami; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Share, Gerald

2017-04-01

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events are important for understanding the acceleration processes and the interplanetary propagation of particles released during eruptive events. In this work, we have carefully studied 25 gamma-ray flare events observed by FERMI and investigated possible associations with SEP-related events observed with STEREO and L1 spacecraft in the heliosphere. A data-driven velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and Time-Shifting Analysis (TSA) are used for deriving the release times of protons and electrons at the Sun and for comparing them with the respective times stemming from the gamma-ray event analysis and their X-ray signatures, in an attempt to interconnect the SEPs and Fermi events and better understand the physics involved. Acknowledgements: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 637324.

Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

2014-12-01

The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

Quantitative assessment of current and future risks related rainfall in processing tomato in the Guadiana river basin (SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castañeda-Vera, Alba; Garrido, Alberto; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Inés Mínguez, M.

2013-04-01

An extension of risk coverages in the insurance policies for processing tomato, mainly related to rainfall events, has resulted in an important increase in claims. This suggests that damages related to extreme or ill-timed showers have been underestimated in previous years. An estimation of damages related to rainfall in the last thirty years and the impact of climate change in the risk related to rainfall in processing tomato crops in the Guadiana river basin (SW Spain) were studied through a risk index. First, the risk index was defined with temperature and relative humidity thresholds related to different damage magnitudes. Then, this index was applied to current climate and to future climate scenarios in nine weather stations representative of the studied area to determine the trends in losses related to extreme or inopportune rainfall events. Thresholds of temperature and relative humidity were obtained from cross-checking agricultural insurance records and meteorological data from local weather stations (REDAREX, http://sw-aperos.juntaex.es/redarex). To consider longer time series, the reanalysis database ERA-INTERIM (Dee et al., 2011) was used. Simulated climate was obtained from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). Trends in climatic risk were analysed by applying the risk index to three sets of data defining current climate (1980-2010), mid-future climate (2010-2040) and long-term future climate (2040-2070). An algorithm to choose the surrounding cell that minimizes the temperature and precipitation climatic biases and maximizes seasonal correlation when comparing ENSEMBLES regional climate model simulations and observed climate was applied before index calculation. The results show the trends in frequency and magnitude of the risk of suffering damages related to rainfall events. The methodology decreased the uncertainty on risk levels. Results contribute to detect the periods during the growing season with larger risk of damage in order to provide information to assist research on risk management practices and to support insurance policy makers to extend guaranties and to adapt the insurance conditions and costs to real crop risks. This research is being financed by MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02), MINECO, Spain Keywords: climate change, risk, rainfall, processing tomato. References Dee, D. P., with 35 co-authors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553-597.

Extreme Sea Level Rise Event Linked to 2009-10 AMOC Downturn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.

2016-02-01

The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant year-to-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. Our analysis of long-term tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009-2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea levels north of New York City jumped by 100 mm. This magnitude of inter-annual SLR is unprecedented in the century-long tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event. We show that this extreme SLR event was a combined effect of two physical factors. First, it was partly due to an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during 2009-2010. This AMOC slowdown caused a significant decline of the dynamic sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current, thereby imparting a rise in coastal sea level. The second contributing factor to the extreme SLR event was due to a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The associated easterly or northeasterly wind anomalies acted to push ocean waters towards the Northeast Coast through the Ekman transport, resulting in further rise in coastal sea levels. Sea level pressure anomalies also contributed to the extreme SLR event through the inverse barometer effect. To project future extreme sea levels along the east coast of North America during the 21st century, we make use of a suite of climate/Earth system models developed at GFDL and other modeling centers. These models included typical CMIP5-class models, as well as the newer climate models GFDL CM2.5 and CM2.6 with eddying oceans. In response to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, each of these models show a reduction in the AMOC. Given the observed connection between AMOC reduction and extreme coastal sea levels, the models thus project an increase in extreme SLR frequency on interannual time scales along the Northeast Coast of North America.

Development of funding project risk management tools.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

The first SPIE software Hack Day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendrew, S.; Deen, C.; Radziwill, N.; Crawford, S.; Gilbert, J.; Gully-Santiago, M.; Kubánek, P.

2014-07-01

We report here on the software Hack Day organised at the 2014 SPIE conference on Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation in Montréal. The first ever Hack Day to take place at an SPIE event, the aim of the day was to bring together developers to collaborate on innovative solutions to problems of their choice. Such events have proliferated in the technology community, providing opportunities to showcase, share and learn skills. In academic environments, these events are often also instrumental in building community beyond the limits of national borders, institutions and projects. We show examples of projects the participants worked on, and provide some lessons learned for future events.

Field-aligned currents associated with multiple arc systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Knudsen, D. J.; Gillies, D. M.; Donovan, E.; Burchill, J. K.

2016-12-01

It is often thought that auroral arcs are a direct consequence of upward field-aligned currents. In fact, the relation between currents and brightness is more complicated. Multiple auroral arc systems provide and opportunity to study this relation in detail; this information can be used as a test of models for quasi-static arc formation. In this study, we have identified two types of FAC configurations in multiple parallel arc systems using ground-based optical data from the THEMIS all-sky imagers (ASIs), magnetometers and electric field instruments onboard the Swarm satellites during the period from December 2013 to March 2015. In type 1 events, each arc is an intensification within a broad, unipolar current sheet and downward currents only exist outside the upward current sheet. In type 2 events, multiple arc systems represent a collection of multiple up/down current pairs. By collecting 12 events for type 1 and 17 events for type 2, we find that (1) Type 1 events are mainly located between 22-23MLT. Type 2 events are mainly located around midnight. (2) The typical size of upward and downward FAC in type 2 events are comparable, while upward FAC in type 1 events are larger than downward FAC. (3) Upward currents with more arcs embedded have larger intensities and widths. (4) There is no significant difference between the characteristic widths of multiple arcs and single arcs.

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Crosson, William; Estes, Maurice, Jr.; Estes, Sue; Quattrochi, Dale; Johnson, Daniel

2013-01-01

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Tohoku Women's Hurdling Project: Science Angels (abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuki, Kotoe; Watanabe, Mayuko

2009-04-01

Tohoku University was the first National University to admit three women students in Japan in 1913. To support the university's traditional ``open-door'' policy, various projects have been promoted throughout the university since its foundation. A government plan, the Third-Stage Basic Plan for Science and Technology, aims to increase the women scientist ratio up to 25% nationwide. In order to achieve this goal, the Tohoku Women's Hurdling Project, funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), was adopted in 2006. This project is threefold: support for child/family, improvement of facilities, and support for the next generation, which includes our Science Angels program. ``Science Angels'' are women PhD students appointed by the university president, with the mission to form a strong support system among each other and to become role-models to inspire younger students who want to become researchers. Currently, 50 women graduate students of the natural sciences are Science Angels and are encouraged to design and deliver lectures in their areas of specialty at their alma maters. Up to now, 12 lectures have been delivered and science events for children in our community have been held-all with great success.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

The All Sky Automated Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pojmański, G.

2004-10-01

The All Sky Automated Survey is a low cost project, the ultimate goal of which is detection and investigation of any kind of the photometric variability present all over the sky. The current system consists of 4 instruments covering 36x36, 9x9 (2 units) and 2x2 degrees, equipped with 2Kx2K CCDs, V,R,I standard filters and custom made automated mounts. All are working in Las Campanas Observatory, Chile in fully automated mode. In the ASAS-3 phase of the project we have been taking data at a rate of 1 measurement per 1-3 days for all available objects brighter than V=14, located south of δ=+28 deg. So far over 2 TB of images has been collected and analyzed, leading to a photometric light curve catalog of over 10 million sources. A preliminary search for variability revealed over 40,000 bright, variable sources (over 75 % were not previously known). Direct access to the data is available over the Internet: http://www.astrouw.edu.pl/˜ gp/asas. At present the ASAS Alert System is being tested. Events, like outbursts of CV's or Novae, eclipses etc. are reported within a few minutes after first detection. Due to large number of artifacts in these data raw events require verification, which can take up to 24 hours.

The projected background for the CUORE experiment

DOE PAGES

Alduino, C.; Alfonso, K.; Artusa, D. R.; ...

2017-08-14

The Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events (CUORE) is designed to search for neutrinoless double beta decay of 130Te with an array of 988 TeO 2 bolometers operating at temperatures around 10 mK. The experiment is currently being commissioned in Hall A of Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, Italy. The goal of CUORE is to reach a 90% C.L. exclusion sensitivity on the 130Te decay half-life of 9 × 10 25 years after 5 years of data taking. The main issue to be addressed to accomplish this aim is the rate of background events in the region of interest, whichmore » must not be higher than 10 –2 counts/keV/kg/year. We developed a detailed Monte Carlo simulation, based on results from a campaign of material screening, radioassays, and bolometric measurements, to evaluate the expected background. This was used over the years to guide the construction strategies of the experiment and we use it here to project a background model for CUORE. In this paper we report the results of our study and our expectations for the background rate in the energy region where the peak signature of neutrinoless double beta decay of 130Te is expected.« less

Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Daniel E.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2014-08-01

Poor air quality causes an estimated 2.6-4.4 million premature deaths per year. Hazardous conditions form when meteorological components allow the accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere. Global-warming-driven changes to atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle are expected to alter the meteorological components that control pollutant build-up and dispersal, but the magnitude, direction, geographic footprint and public health impact of this alteration remain unclear. We used an air stagnation index and an ensemble of bias-corrected climate model simulations to quantify the response of stagnation occurrence and persistence to global warming. Our analysis projects increases in stagnation occurrence that cover 55% of the current global population, with areas of increase affecting ten times more people than areas of decrease. By the late twenty-first century, robust increases of up to 40 days per year are projected throughout the majority of the tropics and subtropics, as well as within isolated mid-latitude regions. Potential impacts over India, Mexico and the western US are particularly acute owing to the intersection of large populations and increases in the persistence of stagnation events, including those of extreme duration. These results indicate that anthropogenic climate change is likely to alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets.

Detection and localization capability of an urban seismic sinkhole monitoring network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Dirk; Dahm, Torsten; Schneider, Fabian

2017-04-01

Microseismic events linked to underground processes in sinkhole areas might serve as precursors to larger mass dislocation or rupture events which can cause felt ground shaking or even structural damage. To identify these weak and shallow events, a sensitive local seismic monitoring network is needed. In case of an urban environment the performance of local monitoring networks is severely compromised by the high anthropogenic noise level. We study the detection and localization capability of such a network, which is already partly installed in the urban area of the city of Hamburg, Germany, within the joint project SIMULTAN (http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/section/near-surface-geophysics/projects/simultan/). SIMULTAN aims to monitor a known sinkhole structure and gain a better understanding of the underlying processes. The current network consists of six surface stations installed in the basement of private houses and underground structures of a research facility (DESY - Deutsches Elektronen Synchrotron). During the started monitoring campaign since 2015, no microseismic events could be unambiguously attributed to the sinkholes. To estimate the detection and location capability of the network, we calculate synthetic waveforms based on the location and mechanism of former events in the area. These waveforms are combined with the recorded urban seismic noise at the station sites. As detection algorithms a simple STA/LTA trigger and a more sophisticated phase detector are used. While the STA/LTA detector delivers stable results and is able to detect events with a moment magnitude as low as 0.35 at a distance of 1.3km from the source even under the present high noise conditions the phase detector is more sensitive but also less stable. It should be stressed that due to the local near surface conditions of the wave propagation the detections are generally performed on S- or surface waves and not on P-waves, which have a significantly lower amplitude. Due to the often emergent onsets of the seismic phases of sinkhole events and the high noise conditions the localization capability of the network is assessed by a stacking approach of characteristic waveforms (STA/LTA traces) in addition to traditional estimates based on travel time uncertainties and network geometry. Also the effect of a vertical array of borehole sensors as well as a small scale surface array on the location accuracy is investigated. Due to the expected, rather low frequency character of the seismic signals arrays with a small aperture due to the required close proximity to the source exhibit considerable uncertainty in the determination of the azimuth of the incoming wavefront, but can contribute to better constrain the event location. Future borehole stations, apart from significantly reducing the detection threshold, would also significantly reduce the location uncertainty. In addition, the synthetic data sets created for this study can also be used to better constrain the magnitudes of the microseismic events by deriving attenuation relations for the surface waves of shallow events encountered in the sinkhole environment. This work has been funded by the German 'Geotechnologien' project SIMULTAN (BMBF03G0737A).

SAGE III/ISS L2 Solar Event Species Profiles (Native) V5 (g3bsspb)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-21

SAGE III/ISS L2 Solar Event Species Profiles (Native) V5 (g3bsspb)   Project ... present Temporal Resolution:  1 file per event File Format:  BINARY Tools:  Earthdata ... Radiation Longwave Radiation Shortwave Radiation Event Tag Event Type Obs Beta Angle Order Data:  ...

SAGE III/ISS L2 Lunar Event Species Profiles (Native) V5 (g3blspb)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-01-08

SAGE III/ISS L2 Lunar Event Species Profiles (Native) V5 (g3blspb)   Project ... present Temporal Resolution:  1 file per event File Format:  BINARY Tools:  Earthdata ... Radiation Longwave Radiation Shortwave Radiation Event Tag Event Type Obs Beta Angle Order Data:  ...

A Project to Rewrite and Restructure the Competitive Events for the Distributive Education Clubs of America, Texas Association. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Speary, William A.

A project is reported which accomplished the following objectives: (1) Developed greater awareness among high school distributive education teacher-coordinators and State and area staff toward the competency based concept as applied to the Texas DECA (Distributive Education Clubs of America) Association's competitive events program, (2) identified…

The Sports Guide: NHLBI Planning Guide for Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Projects at Sporting Events.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Inst. (DHHS/NIH), Bethesda, MD.

The most recent national surveys of public awareness and knowledge of treatment and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) show that health initiatives targeting specific populations are effective ways to support health promotion and disease prevention. Projects and activities outlined in this guide are directed to spectators at sporting events,…

TWAN: The World at Night

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tafreshi, Babak A.

2011-06-01

The World at Night (TWAN) is a global program to produce, collect, and present stunning photographs and time-lapse videos of the world's most beautiful and historic sites against the night-time backdrop of stars, planets, and celestial events. TWAN is a bridge between art, science and humanity to bring the message of peace, concealed in the sky. Organised by ``Astronomers Without Borders'', the project consist of world's best night sky photographers in over countries and coordinators, regional event organisers, and consultants. TWAN was also designated as a Special Project of the International Year of Astronomy 2009. While the project's global exhibitions and educational events peaked during IYA2009, TWAN is planned for long term in several phases and will continue to create and exhibit images in the next years.

Directional Characteristics of Inner Shelf Internal Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Figure 18. YD 202-206 Current vector plot of significant events. Significant events include internal tidal bores, solibores, and solitons . The upper...Events (Bores, Solibores, and Solitons ): Upper column leading-edge cross-shore current velocity and cross-shore wind regression. The small ellipse...Significant Events (Bores, Solibores, and Solitons ): Upper column leading-edge along-shore current velocity and along-shore wind regression. The small

Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

A statistical study of magnetopause structures: Tangential versus rotational discontinuities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Y.-C.; Hau, L.-N.

2012-08-01

A statistical study of the structure of Earth's magnetopause is carried out by analyzing two-year AMPTE/IRM plasma and magnetic field data. The analyses are based on the minimum variance analysis (MVA), the deHoffmann-Teller (HT) frame analysis and the Walén relation. A total of 328 magnetopause crossings are identified and error estimates associated with MVA and HT frame analyses are performed for each case. In 142 out of 328 events both MVA and HT frame analyses yield high quality results which are classified as either tangential-discontinuity (TD) or rotational-discontinuity (RD) structures based only on the Walén relation: Events withSWA ≤ 0.4 (SWA ≥ 0.5) are classified as TD (RD), and rest (with 0.4 < SWA < 0.5) is classified as "uncertain," where SWA refers to the Walén slope. With this criterion, 84% of 142 events are TDs, 12% are RDs, and 4% are uncertain events. There are a large portion of TD events which exhibit a finite normal magnetic field component Bnbut have insignificant flow as compared to the Alfvén velocity in the HT frame. Two-dimensional Grad-Shafranov reconstruction of forty selected TD and RD events show that single or multiple X-line accompanied with magnetic islands are common feature of magnetopause current. A survey plot of the HT velocity associated with TD structures projected onto the magnetopause shows that the flow is diverted at the subsolar point and accelerated toward the dawn and dusk flanks.

The conceptual framework of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project

PubMed Central

Fong, G T; Cummings, K M; Borland, R; Hastings, G; Hyland, A; Giovino, G A; Hammond, D; Thompson, M E

2006-01-01

This paper describes the conceptual model that underlies the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (ITC Project), whose mission is to measure the psychosocial and behavioural impact of key policies of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) among adult smokers, and in some countries, among adult non‐smokers and among youth. The evaluation framework utilises multiple country controls, a longitudinal design, and a pre‐specified, theory‐driven conceptual model to test hypotheses about the anticipated effects of specific policies. The ITC Project consists of parallel prospective cohort surveys of representative samples of adult smokers currently in nine countries (inhabited by over 45% of the world's smokers), with other countries being added in the future. Collectively, the ITC Surveys constitute the first‐ever international cohort study of tobacco use. The conceptual model of the ITC Project draws on the psychosocial and health communication literature and assumes that tobacco control policies influence tobacco related behaviours through a causal chain of psychological events, with some variables more closely related to the policy itself (policy‐specific variables) and other variables that are more downstream from the policy, which have been identified by health behaviour and social psychological theories as being important causal precursors of behaviour (psychosocial mediators). We discuss the objectives of the ITC Project and its potential for building the evidence base for the FCTC. PMID:16754944

Geothermal Induced Seismicity National Environmental Policy Act Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Aaron L; Cook, Jeffrey J; Beckers, Koenraad J

In 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) contracted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to assist the BLM in developing and building upon tools to better understand and evaluate induced seismicity caused by geothermal projects. This review of NEPA documents for four geothermal injection or EGS projects reveals the variety of approaches to analyzing and mitigating induced seismicity. With the exception of the Geysers, where induced seismicity has been observed and monitored for an extended period of time due to large volumes of water being piped in to recharge the hydrothermal reservoir, induced seismicity caused by geothermalmore » projects is a relative new area of study. As this review highlights, determining the level of mitigation required for induced seismic events has varied based on project location, when the review took place, whether the project utilized the International Energy Agency or DOE IS protocols, and the federal agency conducting the review. While the NEPA reviews were relatively consistent for seismic monitoring and historical evaluation of seismic events near the project location, the requirements for public outreach and mitigation for induced seismic events once stimulation has begun varied considerably between the four projects. Not all of the projects were required to notify specific community groups or local government entities before beginning the project, and only one of the reviews specifically stated the project proponent would hold meetings with the public to answer questions or address concerns.« less

High altitude reconnaissance aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yazdo, Renee Anna; Moller, David

1990-01-01

At the equator the ozone layer ranges from 65,000 to 130,000 plus feet, which is beyond the capabilities of the ER-2, NASA's current high altitude reconnaissance aircraft. The Universities Space Research Association, in cooperation with NASA, is sponsoring an undergraduate program which is geared to designing an aircraft that can study the ozone layer at the equator. This aircraft must be able to cruise at 130,000 feet for six hours at Mach 0.7, while carrying 3,000 lbs. of payload. In addition, the aircraft must have a minimum range of 6,000 miles. In consideration of the novel nature of this project, the pilot must be able to take control in the event of unforeseen difficulties. Three aircraft configurations were determined to be the most suitable - a joined-wing, a biplane, and a twin-boom conventional airplane. The performance of each configuration was analyzed to investigate the feasibility of the project.

High temporal resolution modeling of the impact of rain, tides, and sea level rise on water table flooding in the Arch Creek basin, Miami-Dade County Florida USA.

PubMed

Sukop, Michael C; Rogers, Martina; Guannel, Greg; Infanti, Johnna M; Hagemann, Katherine

2018-03-01

Modeling of groundwater levels in a portion of the low-lying coastal Arch Creek basin in northern Miami-Dade County in Southeast Florida USA, which is subject to repetitive flooding, reveals that rain-induced short-term water table rises can be viewed as a primary driver of flooding events under current conditions. Areas below 0.9m North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) elevation are particularly vulnerable and areas below 1.5m NAVD are vulnerable to exceptionally large rainfall events. Long-term water table rise is evident in the groundwater data, and the rate appears to be consistent with local rates of sea level rise. Linear extrapolation of long-term observed groundwater levels to 2060 suggest roughly a doubling of the number of days when groundwater levels exceed 0.9m NAVD and a threefold increase in the number of days when levels exceed 1.5m NAVD. Projected sea level rise of 0.61m by 2060 together with increased rainfall lead to a model prediction of frequent groundwater-related flooding in areas<0.9m NAVD. However, current simulations do not consider the range of rainfall events that have led to water table elevations>1.5m NAVD and widespread flooding of the area in the past. Tidal fluctuations in the water table are predicted to be more pronounced within 600m of a tidally influenced water control structure that is hydrodynamically connected to Biscayne Bay. The inland influence of tidal fluctuations appears to increase with increased sea level, but the principal driver of high groundwater levels under the 2060 scenario conditions remains groundwater recharge due to rainfall events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Boring sponges, an increasing threat for coral reefs affected by bleaching events.

PubMed

Carballo, José L; Bautista, Eric; Nava, Héctor; Cruz-Barraza, José A; Chávez, Jesus A

2013-04-01

Coral bleaching is a stress response of corals induced by a variety of factors, but these events have become more frequent and intense in response to recent climate-change-related temperature anomalies. We tested the hypothesis that coral reefs affected by bleaching events are currently heavily infested by boring sponges, which are playing a significant role in the destruction of their physical structure. Seventeen reefs that cover the entire distributional range of corals along the Mexican Pacific coast were studied between 2005/2006, and later between 2009/2010. Most of these coral reefs were previously impacted by bleaching events, which resulted in coral mortalities. Sponge abundance and species richness was used as an indicator of bioerosion, and coral cover was used to describe the present condition of coral reefs. Coral reefs are currently highly invaded (46% of the samples examined) by a very high diversity of boring sponges (20 species); being the coral reef framework the substrate most invaded (56%) followed by the rubbles (45%), and the living colonies (36%). The results also indicated that boring sponges are promoting the dislodgment of live colonies and large fragments from the framework. In summary, the eastern coral reefs affected by bleaching phenomena, mainly provoked by El Niño, present a high diversity and abundance of boring sponges, which are weakening the union of the colony with the reef framework and promoting their dislodgment. These phenomena will probably become even more intense and severe, as temperatures are projected to continue to rise under the scenarios for future climate change, which could place many eastern coral reefs beyond their survival threshold.

Boring sponges, an increasing threat for coral reefs affected by bleaching events

PubMed Central

Carballo, José L; Bautista, Eric; Nava, Héctor; Cruz-Barraza, José A; Chávez, Jesus A

2013-01-01

Coral bleaching is a stress response of corals induced by a variety of factors, but these events have become more frequent and intense in response to recent climate-change-related temperature anomalies. We tested the hypothesis that coral reefs affected by bleaching events are currently heavily infested by boring sponges, which are playing a significant role in the destruction of their physical structure. Seventeen reefs that cover the entire distributional range of corals along the Mexican Pacific coast were studied between 2005/2006, and later between 2009/2010. Most of these coral reefs were previously impacted by bleaching events, which resulted in coral mortalities. Sponge abundance and species richness was used as an indicator of bioerosion, and coral cover was used to describe the present condition of coral reefs. Coral reefs are currently highly invaded (46% of the samples examined) by a very high diversity of boring sponges (20 species); being the coral reef framework the substrate most invaded (56%) followed by the rubbles (45%), and the living colonies (36%). The results also indicated that boring sponges are promoting the dislodgment of live colonies and large fragments from the framework. In summary, the eastern coral reefs affected by bleaching phenomena, mainly provoked by El Niño, present a high diversity and abundance of boring sponges, which are weakening the union of the colony with the reef framework and promoting their dislodgment. These phenomena will probably become even more intense and severe, as temperatures are projected to continue to rise under the scenarios for future climate change, which could place many eastern coral reefs beyond their survival threshold. PMID:23610632

GRAVITATIONAL MICROLENSING EVENTS AS A TARGET FOR THE SETI PROJECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rahvar, Sohrab, E-mail: rahvar@sharif.edu

2016-09-01

The detection of signals from a possible extrasolar technological civilization is one of the most challenging efforts of science. In this work, we propose using natural telescopes made of single or binary gravitational lensing systems to magnify leakage of electromagnetic signals from a remote planet that harbors Extraterrestrial Intelligent (ETI) technology. Currently, gravitational microlensing surveys are monitoring a large area of the Galactic bulge to search for microlensing events, finding more than 2000 events per year. These lenses are capable of playing the role of natural telescopes, and, in some instances, they can magnify radio band signals from planets orbitingmore » around the source stars in gravitational microlensing systems. Assuming that the frequency of electromagnetic waves used for telecommunication in ETIs is similar to ours, we propose follow-up observation of microlensing events with radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), the Low Frequency Demonstrators, and the Mileura Wide-Field Array. Amplifying signals from the leakage of broadcasting by an Earth-like civilization will allow us to detect them as far as the center of the Milky Way galaxy. Our analysis shows that in binary microlensing systems, the probability of amplification of signals from ETIs is more than that in single microlensing events. Finally, we propose the use of the target of opportunity mode for follow-up observations of binary microlensing events with SKA as a new observational program for searching ETIs. Using optimistic values for the factors of the Drake equation provides detection of about one event per year.« less

Solar Effects of Low-Earth Orbit objects in ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vavrin, A. B.; Anz-Meador, P.; Kelley, R. L.

2014-01-01

Variances in atmospheric density are directly related to the variances in solar flux intensity between 11- year solar cycles. The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0) uses a solar flux table as input for calculating orbital lifetime of intact and debris objects in Low-Earth Orbit. Long term projections in solar flux activity developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) extend the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Center (NOAA/SEC) daily historical flux values with a 5-year projection. For purposes of programmatic scheduling, the Q2 2009 solar flux table was chosen for ORDEM 3.0. Current solar flux activity shows that the current solar cycle has entered a period of lower solar flux intensity than previously forecasted in 2009. This results in a deviation of the true orbital debris environment propagation in ORDEM 3.0. In this paper, we present updated orbital debris populations in LEO using the latest solar flux values. We discuss the effects on recent breakup events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test and the Iridium 33 / Cosmos 2251 accidental collision. Justifications for chosen solar flux tables are discussed.

Data in the Classroom: New Tools for Engaging Students with Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, A.; Pisut, D.

2017-12-01

The ability to understand and analyze data effectively can increase students ability to understand current and historical global change. Since 2009, NOAA Data in the Classroom Project has been offering formal education resources and tools aimed at helping teachers to build data and environmental literacy in their classrooms. Currently, NOAA is modernizing its Data in the Classroom resources using a web application within Esri's web-based GIS platform, Story Maps. Story Maps have been used for a wide variety of purposes, including teaching and instruction, for more than a decade. This technology can help to engage students in a story, like El Niño, while harnessing the power of data - using maps, data visualizations and data query tools. The aim is to create an effective education tool that allows students access to user-friendly, relevant data sets from NOAA, ultimately providing the opportunity to explore dynamic Earth processes and understand the impact of environmental events on a regional or global scale. This presentation will include demonstrations of the recently launched web-based curricular modules, highlighting the Esri web technology used to build and distribute each module and the interactive data tools that are unique to this project.

Effective Risk Management in Innovative Projects: A Case Study of the Construction of Energy-efficient, Sustainable Building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Many construction projects fail to meet deadlines or they exceed the assumed budget. This scenario is particularly common in the case of innovative projects, in which too late identification of a high risk of delays and exceeding the assumed costs makes a potentially profitable project untenable. A high risk level, far exceeding the level of risk in standard non-innovative projects, is a characteristic feature of the realization phase of innovative projects. This is associated not only with greater complexity of the design and construction phases, but also with the problems with application of new technologies and prototype solutions, lack of qualified personnel with suitable expertise in specialized areas, and with the ability to properly identify the gaps between available and required knowledge and skills. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in innovative projects on the example of the realization phase of an innovative, energy-efficient and sustainable building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow - DLJM Lab, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. In this paper, a new approach to risk management process for innovative construction projects is proposed. Risk management process was divided into five stages: gathering information, identification of the important unwanted events, first risk assessment, development and choice of risk reaction strategies, assessment of the residual risk after introducing risk reactions. 18 unwanted events in an innovative construction project were identified. The first risk assessment was carried out using two-parametric risk matrix, in which the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its consequences were analysed. Three levels of risks were defined: tolerable, controlled and uncontrolled. Risk reactions to each defined unwanted event were developed. The following risk reaction types were considered: risk retention, risk reduction, risk transfer and risk elimination. Three-parametric risk matrix was developed to make it possible to assess risk after implementing risk reactions. The possibility of implementing risk management was inversely proportional to the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its contribution to the project outcome. Introducing this risk management strategy allowed to significantly reduce the risk of the innovative construction project. It proved to be an effective tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level. It had a significant contribution to carrying out the project within the assumed time, budget and quality standards.

Effects of Cross-Shelf Physical Forcing on Satellite Bio-Optical Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladner, S. D.; Teague, W. J.; Mitchell, D. A.; Goode, W. A.; Gould, R. W.; Arnone, R. A.

2005-05-01

Our goal is to determine the effects of cross-shelf physical forcing on the optical properties in the northern Gulf of Mexico using in situ optical profiles and surface ocean color satellite images from SeaWiFS. The Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center is conducting an extensive monitoring program in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico west of the Desoto Canyon. During the Slope to Shelf Energetics and Exchange Dynamics (SEED) project, 14 bottom mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP's) were deployed from May-December 2004 along the shelf break at depths ranging from 60 to 1000 meters to improve understanding of cross-shelf exchange processes. Analysis of the May current data indicate abnormal events, including 30 cm/s off-shelf currents throughout the water column and a 3° Celsius elevation in bottom temperature. Coincident optical profiles were collected in May (absorption, scattering coefficients) and are compared with currents and physical properties (temperature, salinity). Similar subsurface abnormalities with stronger currents occurred in September during the passing of Hurricane Ivan over the mooring sites. We will show a time series of near-surface current speeds and their effect on the surface-satellite optical properties over the entire SEED sampling exercise.

RocketCam systems for providing situational awareness on rockets, spacecraft, and other remote platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridenoure, Rex

2004-09-01

Space-borne imaging systems derived from commercial technology have been successfully employed on launch vehicles for several years. Since 1997, over sixty such imagers - all in the product family called RocketCamTM - have operated successfully on 29 launches involving most U.S. launch systems. During this time, these inexpensive systems have demonstrated their utility in engineering analysis of liftoff and ascent events, booster performance, separation events and payload separation operations, and have also been employed to support and document related ground-based engineering tests. Such views from various vantage points provide not only visualization of key events but stunning and extremely positive public relations video content. Near-term applications include capturing key events on Earth-orbiting spacecraft and related proximity operations. This paper examines the history to date of RocketCams on expendable and manned launch vehicles, assesses their current utility on rockets, spacecraft and other aerospace vehicles (e.g., UAVs), and provides guidance for their use in selected defense and security applications. Broad use of RocketCams on defense and security projects will provide critical engineering data for developmental efforts, a large database of in-situ measurements onboard and around aerospace vehicles and platforms, compelling public relations content, and new diagnostic information for systems designers and failure-review panels alike.

Neuromorphic Event-Based 3D Pose Estimation

PubMed Central

Reverter Valeiras, David; Orchard, Garrick; Ieng, Sio-Hoi; Benosman, Ryad B.

2016-01-01

Pose estimation is a fundamental step in many artificial vision tasks. It consists of estimating the 3D pose of an object with respect to a camera from the object's 2D projection. Current state of the art implementations operate on images. These implementations are computationally expensive, especially for real-time applications. Scenes with fast dynamics exceeding 30–60 Hz can rarely be processed in real-time using conventional hardware. This paper presents a new method for event-based 3D object pose estimation, making full use of the high temporal resolution (1 μs) of asynchronous visual events output from a single neuromorphic camera. Given an initial estimate of the pose, each incoming event is used to update the pose by combining both 3D and 2D criteria. We show that the asynchronous high temporal resolution of the neuromorphic camera allows us to solve the problem in an incremental manner, achieving real-time performance at an update rate of several hundreds kHz on a conventional laptop. We show that the high temporal resolution of neuromorphic cameras is a key feature for performing accurate pose estimation. Experiments are provided showing the performance of the algorithm on real data, including fast moving objects, occlusions, and cases where the neuromorphic camera and the object are both in motion. PMID:26834547

An Autonomous Flight Safety System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bull, James B.; Lanzi, Raymond J.

2007-01-01

The Autonomous Flight Safety System (AFSS) being developed by NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center s Wallops Flight Facility and Kennedy Space Center has completed two successful developmental flights and is preparing for a third. AFSS has been demonstrated to be a viable architecture for implementation of a completely vehicle based system capable of protecting life and property in event of an errant vehicle by terminating the flight or initiating other actions. It is capable of replacing current human-in-the-loop systems or acting in parallel with them. AFSS is configured prior to flight in accordance with a specific rule set agreed upon by the range safety authority and the user to protect the public and assure mission success. This paper discusses the motivation for the project, describes the method of development, and presents an overview of the evolving architecture and the current status.

SAGE III/ISS L1B Solar Event Transmission Data (Native) V5 (g3btb)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-21

SAGE III/ISS L1B Solar Event Transmission Data (Native) V5 (g3btb)   Project Title:  ... present Temporal Resolution:  1 file per event File Format:  BINARY Tools:  Earthdata ... Radiation Longwave Radiation Shortwave Radiation Event Tag Event Type Obs Beta Angle Order Data:  ...

SAGE III/ISS L2 Solar Event Species Profiles (HDF-EOS) V5 (g3bssp)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-21

SAGE III/ISS L2 Solar Event Species Profiles (HDF-EOS) V5 (g3bssp)   Project ... present Temporal Resolution:  1 file per event File Format:  HDF-4 Tools:  Earthdata ... Radiation Longwave Radiation Shortwave Radiation Event Tag Event Type Obs Beta Angle Order Data:  ...

SAGE III/ISS L2 Lunar Event Species Profiles (HDF-EOS) V5 (g3blsp)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-01-04

SAGE III/ISS L2 Lunar Event Species Profiles (HDF-EOS) V5 (g3blsp)   Project ... present Temporal Resolution:  1 file per event File Format:  HDF-4 Tools:  Earthdata ... Radiation Longwave Radiation Shortwave Radiation Event Tag Event Type Obs Beta Angle Order Data:  ...

Technology Assessment Requirements for Programs and Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilbro, James W.

2006-01-01

Program/project uncertainty can most simply be defined as the unpredictability of its outcome. As might be expected, the degree of uncertainty depends substantially on program/project type. For hi-tech programs/projects, uncertainty all too frequently translates into schedule slips, cost overruns and occasionally even to cancellations or failures - consummations root cause of such events is often attributed to inadequate definition of requirements. If such were indeed the root cause, then correcting the situation would simply be a matter of requiring better requirements definition, but since history seems frequently to repeat itself, this must not be the case - at least not in total. There are in fact many contributors to schedule slips, cost overruns, project cancellations and failures, among them lack of adequate requirements definition. The case can be made, however, that many of these contributors are related to the degree of uncertainty at the outset of the project. And further, that a dominant factor in the degree of uncertainty is the maturity of the technology required to bring the project to fruition. This presentation discusses the concept of relating degrees of uncertainty to Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) and their associated Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) levels. It also briefly describes a quantifiable process to establish the appropriate TRL for a given technology and quantifies through the AD2 what is required to move it from its current TRL to the desired TRL in order to reduce risk and maximize likelihood of successfully infusing the technology.

VirtualSpace: A vision of a machine-learned virtual space environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bortnik, J.; Sarno-Smith, L. K.; Chu, X.; Li, W.; Ma, Q.; Angelopoulos, V.; Thorne, R. M.

2017-12-01

Space borne instrumentation tends to come and go. A typical instrument will go through a phase of design and construction, be deployed on a spacecraft for several years while it collects data, and then be decommissioned and fade into obscurity. The data collected from that instrument will typically receive much attention while it is being collected, perhaps in the form of event studies, conjunctions with other instruments, or a few statistical surveys, but once the instrument or spacecraft is decommissioned, the data will be archived and receive progressively less attention with every passing year. This is the fate of all historical data, and will be the fate of data being collected by instruments even at the present time. But what if those instruments could come alive, and all be simultaneously present at any and every point in time and space? Imagine the scientific insights, and societal gains that could be achieved with a grand (virtual) heliophysical observatory that consists of every current and historical mission ever deployed? We propose that this is not just fantasy but is imminently doable with the data currently available, with the present computational resources, and with currently available algorithms. This project revitalizes existing data resources and lays the groundwork for incorporating data from every future mission to expand the scope and refine the resolution of the virtual observatory. We call this project VirtualSpace: a machine-learned virtual space environment.

A Studio Project Based on the Events of September 11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruby, Nell

2004-01-01

A week after the 9/11 WTC event, the collage project that Nell Ruby and her class had been working on in a basic design classroom lacked relevance. They had been working from master works, analyzing hue and value relationships, color schemes, shape, and composition. The master works seemed unimportant because of the immense emotional impact of the…

Inter-event variability in urban stormwater runoff response associated with hydrologic connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hondula, K. L.

2015-12-01

Urbanization alters the magnitude and composition of hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes from watersheds, with subsequent deleterious consequences for receiving waters. Projected changes in storm characteristics such as rainfall intensity and event size are predicted to amplify these impacts and render current regulations inadequate for protecting surface water quality. As stormwater management practices (BMPs) are increasingly being relied upon to reduce excess nutrient pollution in runoff from residential development, empirical investigation of their performance across a range of conditions is warranted. Despite substantial investment in urban and suburban BMPs, significant knowledge gaps exist in understanding how landscape structure and precipitation event characteristics influence the amount of stormwater runoff and associated nutrient loads from these complex catchments. Increasing infiltration of stormwater before it enters the sewer network (source control) is hypothesized to better mimic natural hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes compared to more centralized BMPs at sewer outlets such as wet and dry ponds. Rainfall and runoff quality and quantity were monitored in four small (1-5 ha) residential catchments in Maryland to test the efficacy of infiltration-based stormwater management practices in comparison to end-of-pipe BMPs. Results indicated that reduced hydrologic connectivity associated with infiltration-based practices affected the relationship between the magnitude of rainfall events and water yield , but only for small precipitation events: compared to end-of-pipe BMPs, source control was associated with both lower runoff ratios and lower nutrient export per area for a given rainfall event size. We found variability in stormwater runoff responses (water yield, quality, and nutrient loads) was associated with precipitation event size, antecedent rainfall, and hydrologic connectivity as quantified by a modified directional connectivity index. Accounting for the interactive effects of landscape structure and precipitation event characteristics can reduce the uncertainty surrounding stormwater runoff responses in complex urban watersheds.

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cates, Grant R.

2004-01-01

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

The Young Solar Analogs Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, Richard O.; Saken, J. M.; Corbally, C. J.; Seeds, M. F.; Morrison, S. S.

2012-01-01

We are carrying out a long-term project of measuring chromospheric activity and brightness variations in 31 young solar analogs (YSAs) using the Dark Sky Observatory (DSO -- Appalachian State University) 32-inch telescope and the G/M spectrograph. These YSAs are solar-type (spectral types F8 - K2) stars with ages ranging from 0.3 - 1.5 Gyr. The goal of this project is to gain better understanding of the magnetic activity of the early Sun, and especially how that activity may have impacted the development of life on the Earth. This project will also yield insights into the space environments experienced by young Earth analogs. We are currently in our 5th year of obtaining Ca II K & H chromospheric flux measurements, and are beginning to see signs of long-term activity cycles in a number of our stars. In addition, rotational modulation of the chromospheric fluxes is detectable in our data, and we have determined rotational periods for many of our stars. Short timescale increases in the K & H fluxes have been observed in a number of our stars; these events may be related to stellar flares. VATTSpec, a new moderate-resolution spectrograph on the 1.8-m Vatican Telescope in Arizona, has recently become involved with the project. This spectrograph will increase our ability to detect short-term changes in stellar activity on timescales of hours to minutes. We have been monitoring the program stars for one year in a multi-band photometric system consisting of Stromgren-v, and Johnson B, V, and R filters. We will soon add a narrow-band H-alpha filter to the system. Photometry is being carried out with a small piggy-back telescope on the 32-inch, but a robotic photometric telescope is currently being installed at DSO for this purpose. This project is supported by the National Science Foundation.

The 3 April 2017 Botswana M6.5 Earthquake: Scientific Rapid Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midzi, V.; Jele, V.; Kwadiba, M. T.; Mantsha, R.; Manzunzu, B.; Mulabisana, T. F.; Ntibinyane, O.; Pule, T.; Saunders, I.; Tabane, L.; van Aswegen, G.; Zulu, B. S.

2017-12-01

An earthquake of magnitude M6.5 occurred in the evening of 3 April 2017 in Central Botswana. The event was well recorded by the regional network and located by both the Council for Geoscience (CGS) and United States Geological Survey (USGS). Its effects were felt widely in southern Africa and were especially pronounced for residence of Gauteng and the North West Province. In response to these events, the CGS, together with the Botswana Geoscience Institute (BGI), embarked on two scientific projects. The first involved the quick installation of a temporary network of six seismograph stations in and around the location of the main Botswana event with the purpose of detecting and recording its aftershocks. Initially the intention had been to record the events for a period of one month, but on realizing just how active the area was it was decided to extend the period to three months. Data recorded in the first month were collected and delivered to both the CGS and BGI for processing. Currently data recorded in April 2017 after the installation of the stations has been analysed and more than 500 located aftershocks identified. All are located at the eastern edge of the Central Kalahari Park near the location of the main event in clear two clusters. The observed clusters imply that a segmented fault is the source of these earthquakes and is oriented in a NW-SE direction. The second scientific project involved a macroseismic survey to study the extent and nature of the effects of the event in southern Africa. This involved CGS and BGI scientists conducting interviews of members of the public to extract as much information as possible. Other data were collected from questionnaires submitted online by the public. In total 180 questionnaires were obtained through interviews and 141 online from South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia. All collected data have been analysed to produce 76 intensity data points located all over the region, with maximum intensity values of VI (according to the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale) observed near the epicenter. These are quite low values of intensity for such a large event, but are to be expected given that the epicentral region is in a national park which is sparsely populated.

Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC. Quarterly report January through March 2011. Year 1 Quarter 2 progress report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lottes, S. A.; Kulak, R. F.; Bojanowski, C.

2011-05-19

This project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. The analysis methods employ well-benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focusmore » of the project are wind and water loads on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to assess them for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, vehicle stability under high wind loading, and the use of electromagnetic shock absorbers to improve vehicle stability under high wind conditions. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of January through March 2011.« less

Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

2004-01-01

Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

Implementation of the American Society of Anesthesiology's guidelines to reduce prolonged fasting times in pediatric preoperative patients: a best practice implementation project.

PubMed

Costello, Carol M

2016-10-01

The American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) guidelines for pediatric preoperative fasting have been a standard for well over a decade. However, use of protocols involving an excessive fasting duration exposes patients to the physiological impacts of fluid volume loss. The current project aimed to improve fluid supplementation during presurgical fasting in pediatric patients at an academic medical center. Specific objectives were to increase clinical staff knowledge regarding ASA fasting standards and implement them in specific pediatric patient populations. The Joanna Briggs Institute Practical Application of Clinical Evidence System and Getting Research into Practice tools were used. A baseline audit assessed compliance with best practice criteria regarding staff education, patient/family instruction and preoperative fasting times. Intervention outcomes were evaluated in a post implementation criteria audit. Although compliance with fasting less than 12 hours more than doubled, only half of these patients/parents adhered to the guidelines. No excessive fasting events were attributed to a language barrier. There were no insufficient fasting events. Moderate success with fasting compliance was demonstrated when patients/parents were taught the multi-step ASA non per os (nothing by mouth) instructions. This complexity may have contributed to non-compliance and pointed to the need for enhanced teaching strategies. No operative start delays related to insufficient fasting indicated surgical scheduling flexibility was not at risk, and anesthesia providers had adopted the guidelines. Interdisciplinary engagement in this project was significantly impacted by director level communication which will be a key strategy for future implementations.

High spatial resolution detection of low-energy electrons using an event-counting method, application to point projection microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salançon, Evelyne; Degiovanni, Alain; Lapena, Laurent; Morin, Roger

2018-04-01

An event-counting method using a two-microchannel plate stack in a low-energy electron point projection microscope is implemented. 15 μm detector spatial resolution, i.e., the distance between first-neighbor microchannels, is demonstrated. This leads to a 7 times better microscope resolution. Compared to previous work with neutrons [Tremsin et al., Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res., Sect. A 592, 374 (2008)], the large number of detection events achieved with electrons shows that the local response of the detector is mainly governed by the angle between the hexagonal structures of the two microchannel plates. Using this method in point projection microscopy offers the prospect of working with a greater source-object distance (350 nm instead of 50 nm), advancing toward atomic resolution.

The impact of El Niño events on the pelagic food chain in the northern California Current.

PubMed

Fisher, Jennifer L; Peterson, William T; Rykaczewski, Ryan R

2015-12-01

The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid-rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to 10 tropical El Niño events. Measurable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven of 10 of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to 2 months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) events, but delayed (lag of 2-8 months) following 'Modoki' Central Pacific (CP) events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

What differentiates episodic future thinking from complex scene imagery?

PubMed

de Vito, Stefania; Gamboz, Nadia; Brandimonte, Maria A

2012-06-01

We investigated the contributions of familiarity of setting, self-relevance and self-projection in time to episodic future thinking. The role of familiarity of setting was assessed, in Experiment 1, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical future events supposed to occur in unfamiliar settings. The role of self-relevance was assessed, in Experiment 2, by comparing episodic future thoughts to future events involving familiar others. The role of self-projection in time was assessed, in both Experiments, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical events that were not temporal in nature. Results indicated that episodic future thoughts were more clearly represented than autobiographical future events occurring in unfamiliar setting and future events involving familiar others. Our results also revealed that episodic future thoughts were indistinguishable from autobiographical atemporal events with respect to both subjective and objective detail ratings. These results suggest that future and atemporal events are mentally represented in a similar way. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emotional intensity in episodic autobiographical memory and counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Stanley, Matthew L; Parikh, Natasha; Stewart, Gregory W; De Brigard, Felipe

2017-02-01

Episodic counterfactual thoughts-imagined alternative ways in which personal past events might have occurred-are frequently accompanied by intense emotions. Here, participants recollected positive and negative autobiographical memories and then generated better and worse episodic counterfactual events from those memories. Our results suggest that the projected emotional intensity during the simulated remembered/imagined event is significantly higher than but typically positively related to the emotional intensity while remembering/imagining the event. Furthermore, repeatedly simulating counterfactual events heightened the emotional intensity felt while simulating the counterfactual event. Finally, for both the emotional intensity accompanying the experience of remembering/imagining and the projected emotional intensity during the simulated remembered/imagined event, the emotional intensity of negative memories was greater than the emotional intensity of upward counterfactuals generated from them but lower than the emotional intensity of downward counterfactuals generated from them. These findings are discussed in relation to clinical work and functional theories of counterfactual thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lessons Learned from Real-Time, Event-Based Internet Science Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T.; Myszka, E.; Gallagher, D. L.; Adams, M. L.; Koczor, R. J.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

For the last several years the Science Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center has carried out a diverse program of Internet-based science communication. The Directorate's Science Roundtable includes active researchers, NASA public relations, educators, and administrators. The Science@NASA award-winning family of Web sites features science, mathematics, and space news. The program includes extended stories about NASA science, a curriculum resource for teachers tied to national education standards, on-line activities for students, and webcasts of real-time events. The focus of sharing science activities in real-time has been to involve and excite students and the public about science. Events have involved meteor showers, solar eclipses, natural very low frequency radio emissions, and amateur balloon flights. In some cases, broadcasts accommodate active feedback and questions from Internet participants. Through these projects a pattern has emerged in the level of interest or popularity with the public. The pattern differentiates projects that include science from those that do not, All real-time, event-based Internet activities have captured public interest at a level not achieved through science stories or educator resource material exclusively. The worst event-based activity attracted more interest than the best written science story. One truly rewarding lesson learned through these projects is that the public recognizes the importance and excitement of being part of scientific discovery. Flying a camera to 100,000 feet altitude isn't as interesting to the public as searching for viable life-forms at these oxygen-poor altitudes. The details of these real-time, event-based projects and lessons learned will be discussed.

SAGE III/ISS L1B Solar Event Transmission Data (HDF-EOS) V5 (g3bt)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-21

SAGE III/ISS L1B Solar Event Transmission Data (HDF-EOS) V5 (g3bt)   Project Title:  ... present Temporal Resolution:  1 file per event File Format:  HDF-4 Tools:  Earthdata ... Radiation Longwave Radiation Shortwave Radiation Event Tag Event Type Obs Beta Angle Order Data:  ...

On the monitoring and prediction of flash floods in small and medium-sized catchments - the EXTRUSO project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiemann, Stefan; Eltner, Anette; Sardemann, Hannes; Spieler, Diana; Singer, Thomas; Thanh Luong, Thi; Janabi, Firas Al; Schütze, Niels; Bernard, Lars; Bernhofer, Christian; Maas, Hans-Gerd

2017-04-01

Flash floods regularly cause severe socio-economic damage worldwide. In parallel, climate change is very likely to increase the number of such events, due to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events (EASAC 2013). Whereas recent work primarily addresses the resilience of large catchment areas, the major impact of hydro-meteorological extremes caused by heavy precipitation is on small areas. Those are very difficult to observe and predict, due to sparse monitoring networks and only few means for hydro-meteorological modelling, especially in small catchment areas. The objective of the EXTRUSO project is to identify and implement appropriate means to close this gap by an interdisciplinary approach, combining comprehensive research expertise from meteorology, hydrology, photogrammetry and geoinformatics. The project targets innovative techniques for achieving spatio-temporal densified monitoring and simulations for the analysis, prediction and warning of local hydro-meteorological extreme events. The following four aspects are of particular interest: 1. The monitoring, analysis and combination of relevant hydro-meteorological parameters from various sources, including existing monitoring networks, ground radar, specific low-cost sensors and crowdsourcing. 2. The determination of relevant hydro-morphological parameters from different photogrammetric sensors (e.g. camera, laser scanner) and sensor platforms (e.g. UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) and UWV (unmanned water vehicle)). 3. The continuous hydro-meteorological modelling of precipitation, soil moisture and water flows by means of conceptual and data-driven modelling. 4. The development of a collaborative, web-based service infrastructure as an information and communication point, especially in the case of an extreme event. There are three major applications for the planned information system: First, the warning of local extreme events for the population in potentially affected areas, second, the support for decision makers and emergency responders in the case of an event and, third, the development of open, interoperable tools for other researchers to be applied and further developed. The test area of the project is the Free State of Saxony (Germany) with a number of small and medium catchment areas. However, the whole system, comprising models, tools and sensor setups, is planned to be transferred and tested in other areas, within and outside Europe, as well. The team working on the project consists of eight researchers, including five PhD students and three postdocs. The EXTRUSO project is funded by the European Social Fund (ESF grant nr. 100270097) with a project duration of three years until June 2019. EASAC (2013): Trends in extreme weather events in Europe: implications for national and European Union adaption strategies. European Academies Science Advisory Council. Policy report 22, November 2013 The EXTRUSO project is funded by the European Social Fund (ESF), grant nr. 100270097

Integrating data rescue into the classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, Ciara; Ciaran, Broderick; Mary, Curley; Conor, Daly; Catriona, Duffy; Thorne, Peter; Treanor, Mairead; Walsh, Seamus; Murphy, Conor

2017-04-01

The availability of long-term observational data at fine time scales (e.g. daily or sub-daily) is paramount to examining changes in the magnitude, duration, intensity, and frequency of extreme events and to assess whether or not the likelihood of recent events has changed throughout the historical record. The capacity to extend current observational data holdings is, however, largely dependent on the resources available to carry out the digitisation and transcription process. This paper presents an ambitious research led teaching experiment in which undergraduate students engaged in a substantial data rescue effort to transcribe over 1 million daily rainfall values and associated metadata across Ireland for the period 1860-1939. The aim of the project was first, to motivate students by engaging them in a practical exercise whereby their contribution has considerable value to research, second, to expose students to the basic processes involved in climate data rescue, and third, to examine the potential for students to produce accurate and reliable observational data. Students were provided with digital images of annual rainfall sheets recovered from the national archives together with templates used by Met Éireann in transcribing the data. Using video and text supports, together with an online discussion forum for additional support, students double keyed more than 1400 station years of rainfall data. The assessment process was linked to creating a correct data series whereby differences in double keyed sheets were identified and a master (correct) series created by teaching staff. Three hundred station years of data previously transcribed by Met Éireann was used as a benchmark against which students showed that they were as accurate as the professionals in the process. The success of the students makes a major contribution to understanding the historic climate variability of Ireland, a sentinel location on the western margins of Europe. Given the large volumes of archived data currently held in Met Éireann and other meteorological organisations there is huge potential to extend this project to other Universities so that valuable data can be unlocked to further scientific insights into changes in climate and extreme events.

Strategies to take into account variations in extreme rainfall events for design storms in urban area: an example over Naples (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Rianna, G.

2017-12-01

Eminent works highlighted how available observations display ongoing increases in extreme rainfall events while climate models assess them for future. Although the constraints in rainfall networks observations and uncertainties in climate modelling currently affect in significant way investigations, the huge impacts potentially induced by climate changes (CC) suggest adopting effective adaptation measures in order to take proper precautions. In this regard, design storms are used by engineers to size hydraulic infrastructures potentially affected by direct (e.g. pluvial/urban flooding) and indirect (e.g. river flooding) effects of extreme rainfall events. Usually they are expressed as IDF curves, mathematical relationships between rainfall Intensity, Duration, and the return period (frequency, F). They are estimated interpreting through Extreme Theories Statistical Theories (ETST) past rainfall records under the assumption of steady conditions resulting then unsuitable under climate change. In this work, a methodology to estimate future variations in IDF curves is presented and carried out for the city of Naples (Southern Italy). In this regard, the Equidistance Quantile Matching Approach proposed by Sivrastav et al. (2014) is adopted. According it, daily-subdaily maximum precipitation observations [a] and the analogous daily data provided by climate projections on current [b] and future time spans [c] are interpreted in IDF terms through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach. After, quantile based mapping approach is used to establish a statistical relationship between cumulative distribution functions resulting by GEV of [a] and [b] (spatial downscaling) and [b] and [c] functions (temporal downscaling). Coupling so-obtained relations permits generating IDF curves under CC assumption. To account for uncertainties in future projections, all climate simulations available for the area in Euro-Cordex multimodel ensemble at 0.11° (about 12 km) are considered under three different concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results appear largely influenced by models, RCPs and time horizon of interest; nevertheless, clear indications of increases are detectable although with different magnitude on the different precipitation durations.

Architectural Analysis of Dynamically Reconfigurable Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindvall, Mikael; Godfrey, Sally; Ackermann, Chris; Ray, Arnab; Yonkwa, Lyly

2010-01-01

oTpics include: the problem (increased flexibility of architectural styles decrease analyzability, behavior emerges and varies depending on the configuration, does the resulting system run according to the intended design, and architectural decisions can impede or facilitate testing); top down approach to architecture analysis, detection of defects and deviations, and architecture and its testability; currently targeted projects GMSEC and CFS; analyzing software architectures; analyzing runtime events; actual architecture recognition; GMPUB in Dynamic SAVE; sample output from new approach; taking message timing delays into account; CFS examples of architecture and testability; some recommendations for improved testablity; and CFS examples of abstract interfaces and testability; CFS example of opening some internal details.

Constellation Mission Operation Working Group: ESMO Maneuver Planning Process Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moyer, Eric

2015-01-01

The Earth Science Mission Operation (ESMO) Project created an Independent Review Board to review our Conjunction Risk evaluation process and Maneuver Planning Process to identify improvements that safely manages mission conjunction risks, maintains ground track science requirements, and minimizes overall hours expended on High Interest Events (HIE). The Review Board is evaluating the current maneuver process which requires support by multiple groups. In the past year, there have been several changes to the processes although many prior and new concerns exist. This presentation will discuss maneuver process reviews and Board comments, ESMO assessment and path foward, ESMO future plans, recent changes and concerns.

Muon g-2 Reconstruction and Analysis Framework for the Muon Anomalous Precession Frequency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khaw, Kim Siang

The Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab, with the aim to measure the muon anomalous magnetic moment to an unprecedented level of 140~ppb, has started beam and detector commissioning in Summer 2017. To deal with incoming data projected to be around tens of petabytes, a robust data reconstruction and analysis chain based on Fermilab's \\textit{art} event-processing framework is developed. Herein, I report the current status of the framework, together with its novel features such as multi-threaded algorithms for online data quality monitor (DQM) and fast-turnaround operation (nearline). Performance of the framework during the commissioning run is also discussed.

Automated lifestyle coaching for cerebro-cardiovascular disease prevention.

PubMed

Spassova, Lübomira; Vittore, Debora; Droste, Dirk; Rösch, Norbert

2013-01-01

As soon as telemedicine aims at supporting the prevention of ischemic events (e.g., stroke and myocardial infarction), the mere monitoring of vital parameters is not sufficient. Instead, the patients should be supported in their efforts to actively reduce their individual risk factors and to achieve and maintain a healthier lifestyle. The Luxembourg-based CAPSYS project (Computer-Aided Prevention System) aims at combining the advantages of telephone coaching with those of home telemonitoring and with methods of computer-aided decision support in direct contact with the patients. The suitability and user acceptance of the system is currently being evaluated in a first pilot study.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important research instrument for supporting the scientific justification for the Minamata Convention and monitoring of the implementation of targets of this convention, as well as the EU Mercury Strategy. This project provided the state of the art with regard to the development of the latest emission inventories for mercury, future emission scenarios, dispersion modelling of atmospheric mercury on a global and regional scale, and source-receptor techniques for mercury emission apportionment on a global scale.

Web-Based versus High-Fidelity Simulation Training for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists in the Management of High Risk/Low Occurrence Anesthesia Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kimemia, Judy

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this project was to compare web-based to high-fidelity simulation training in the management of high risk/low occurrence anesthesia related events, to enhance knowledge acquisition for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). This project was designed to answer the question: Is web-based training as effective as…

Extreme Energy Events Project: Construction of the detectors and installation in Italian High Schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbrescia, M.; An, S.; Antolini, R.; Badalà, A.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Bencivenni, G.; Blanco, F.; Bressan, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Chiri, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Coccia, E.; de Pasquale, S.; di Giovanni, A.; D'Incecco, M.; Fabbri, F. L.; Frolov, V.; Garbini, M.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Imponente, G.; Kim, J.; La Rocca, P.; Librizzi, F.; Maggiora, A.; Menghetti, H.; Miozzi, S.; Moro, R.; Panareo, M.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Piragino, G.; Riggi, F.; Romano, F.; Sartorelli, G.; Sbarra, C.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Williams, C.; Zichichi, A.; Zuyeuski, R.

2008-04-01

The EEE Project, conceived by its leader Antonino Zichichi, aims to detect Extreme Energy Events of cosmic rays with an array of muon telescopes distributed over the Italian territory. The Project involves Italian High Schools in order to introduce young people to Physics, also countervailing the recent crisis of university scientific classes inscriptions. The detectors for the EEE telescopes are Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPC) and have been constructed by teams of High School students who went in shift at the CERN laboratories. The mechanics and the electronics were developed by groups of researchers from CERN, the Italian Centro Fermi and INFN. The first group of schools of the EEE Project has inaugurated their telescopes recently. A status report of the Project and the preliminary results are presented.

Quantifying uncertainty in future floods and drought conditions in the Northeastern United States using regionally downscaled climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddique, R.; Wu, C.; Karmalkar, A.; Bradley, R. S.; Palmer, R. N.

2017-12-01

Northeastern region (NER) of the United States (US) has been projected to be a place where climate change can have the most severe impacts. These impacts include, but are not limited to, increases in the following: extreme precipitation events, temperature, flood magnitudes, flood frequencies, droughts, and sea level rise. In this study, we estimate the frequency of hydrological extremes under different climate change scenarios using regionally downscaled climate projections from a limited number of selected models from the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The models are chosen to minimize the loss of key climate information relevant to the NER. Precipitation and temperature from the selected models are forced into a distributed hydrological model called Hydrology Laboratory - Research Distributed Hydrological Model (HL-RDHM) to obtain streamflows for two different time regimes, near-term (20-50 years out) and long-term (50-80 years out). For this, two climate emission scenarios will be considered: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impacts of the climate projections on the streamflows are then evaluated across different watershed scales in the NER. Among different metrics, we employ: 1) Flood Events - return period of 1 year, 10 year, 20 year, 50 year, and 100 year flood events and 2) Drought Events -low flow events associated with the 7-day 10 year low flow, number of days per month that will be below the historic monthly average, number of days per month that will be below the 25 percentile monthly historic average, changes in the 30-day and 60-day cumulative summer flows, and the timing and magnitude of spring run-off. For estimates of the climate impacts on low and high flows, only the unregulated watersheds are taken into consideration. Ensembles of streamflows obtained by forcing different climate projections are used to quantify and account for the associated uncertainties. Thus, the outcomes of this study are expected to guide regional decision makers on potential impacts of climate change on hydrological extreme events and water resources across different spatial scales within NER of the US.

A Current Events Approach to Academic Reading.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hirsch, Sharon F.; Gabbay, Anita

1995-01-01

Presents a current events course designed to teach students in Israel both English language skills as well as the advanced reading and study skills they need to comprehend university level texts and journal articles. A current events approach to academic reading enlivens the foreign language classroom and motivates and broadens the horizons of…

Cervical Cancer Prevention

MedlinePlus

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Skin Cancer Prevention

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Lung Cancer Screening

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Future cardiovascular disease in China: Markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Coxson, Pamela; Wang, Y. Claire; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Liu, Jing; Cheng, Jun; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Shen, Yu-Ming; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2010-01-01

Background The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China. PMID:20442213

Do future thoughts reflect personal goals? Current concerns and mental time travel into the past and future.

PubMed

Cole, Scott N; Berntsen, Dorthe

2016-01-01

Our overriding hypothesis was that future thinking would be linked with goals to a greater extent than memories; conceptualizing goals as current concerns (i.e., uncompleted personal goals). We also hypothesized that current-concern-related events would differ from non-current-concern-related events on a set of phenomenological characteristics. We report novel data from a study examining involuntary and voluntary mental time travel using an adapted laboratory paradigm. Specifically, after autobiographical memories or future thoughts were elicited (between participants) in an involuntary and voluntary retrieval mode (within participants), participants self-generated five current concerns and decided whether each event was relevant or not to their current concerns. Consistent with our hypothesis, compared with memories, a larger percentage of involuntary and voluntary future thoughts reflected current concerns. Furthermore, events related to current concerns differed from non-concern-related events on a range of cognitive, representational, and affective phenomenological measures. These effects were consistent across temporal direction. In general, our results agree with the proposition that involuntary and voluntary future thinking is important for goal-directed cognition and behaviour.

Risks of Lung Cancer Screening

MedlinePlus

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Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy

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Treatment Option Overview (Melanoma)

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Stages of Adult Hodgkin Lymphoma

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Hormone Therapy for Breast Cancer

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Stages of Childhood Craniopharyngioma

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Hyperthermia in Cancer Treatment

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Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change impacts on rural, vulnerable areas of the Northeast.

The safer clinical systems project in renal care.

PubMed

Weale, Andy R

2013-09-01

Current systems in place in healthcare are designed to detect harm after it has happened (e.g critical incident reports) and make recommendations based on an assessment of that event. Safer Clinical Systems, a Health Foundation funded project, is designed to proactively search for risk within systems, rather than being reactive to harm. The aim of the Safer Clinical Systems project in Renal Care was to reduce the risks associated with shared care for patients who are undergoing surgery but are looked after peri-operatively by nephrology teams on nephrology wards. This report details our findings of the diagnostic phase of Safer Clinical Systems: the proactive search for risk. We have evaluated the current system of care using a set of risk evaluation and process mapping tools (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Hierarchical Task Analysis HTA). We have engaged staff with the process mapping and risk assessment tools. We now understand our system and understand where the highest risk tasks are undertaken during a renal in-patient stay during which a patient has an operation. These key tasks occur across the perioperaive period and are not confined to one aspect of care. A measurement strategy and intervention plan have been designed around these tasks. Safer Clinical Systems has identified high risk, low reliability tasks in our system. We look forward to fully reporting these data in 2014. © 2013 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Single-Event Effect Testing of the Linear Technology LTC6103HMS8#PBF Current Sense Amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yau, Ka-Yen; Campola, Michael J.; Wilcox, Edward

2016-01-01

The LTC6103HMS8#PBF (henceforth abbreviated as LTC6103) current sense amplifier from Linear Technology was tested for both destructive and non-destructive single-event effects (SEE) using the heavy-ion cyclotron accelerator beam at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Berkeley Accelerator Effects (BASE) facility. During testing, the input voltages and output currents were monitored to detect single event latch-up (SEL) and single-event transients (SETs).

The MERINOVA project: MEteorological RIsks as drivers of environmental inNOvation in Agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de vijver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2014-05-01

Devastating weather-related events have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and rain storms are projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Since more than half of the Belgian territory is managed by the agricultural sector, extreme events may have significant impacts on agro-ecosystem services and pose severe limitations to sustainable agricultural land management. The research hypothesis of the MERINOVA project is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. The major objectives are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Impacts developed from physically based models not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by more limits to aid received for agricultural damage and an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers. The main findings of each of these project building blocks will be communicated. MERINOVA provides for a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. A strong expert and end-user network is established to help disseminating and exploiting project results to meet user needs. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A. https://merinova.vito.be

Instantaneous Project Controls: Current Status, State of the Art, Benefits, and Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbaszadegan, Amin

2016-01-01

Despite advancements in construction and construction-related technology, capital project performance deviations, typically overruns, remain endemic within the capital projects industry. Currently, management is generally unaware of the current status of their projects, and thus monitoring and control of projects are not achieved effectively. In…

Study of the Hyperon-Nucleon Interaction in Exclusive Λ Photoproduction off the Deuteron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachariou, Nicholas; CLAS Collaboration

2014-09-01

Understanding the nature of the nuclear force in terms of the fundamental degrees of freedom of the theory of strong interaction, Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), is one of the primary goals of modern nuclear physics. While the nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction has been studied for decades, a systematic description of the NN potential has been achieved only recently with the development of low-energy Effective Field Theories (EFT). To obtain a comprehensive understanding of the strong interaction, dynamics involving strange baryons must be studied. Currently, little is known about the properties of the hyperon-nucleon (YN) and the hyperon-hyperon (YY) interactions. In this talk I will describe our current research of the Λn interaction using the E06-103 experiment performed with the CLAS detector in Hall B at Jefferson Lab. The large kinematic coverage of the CLAS combined with the exceptionally high quality of the experimental data allows to identify and select final-state interaction events in the reaction γd -->K+ Λn and to establish their kinematical dependencies. The large set of observables we aim to obtain will provide tight constraints on modern YN potentials. I will present the current status of the project and will discuss future incentives. Understanding the nature of the nuclear force in terms of the fundamental degrees of freedom of the theory of strong interaction, Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), is one of the primary goals of modern nuclear physics. While the nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction has been studied for decades, a systematic description of the NN potential has been achieved only recently with the development of low-energy Effective Field Theories (EFT). To obtain a comprehensive understanding of the strong interaction, dynamics involving strange baryons must be studied. Currently, little is known about the properties of the hyperon-nucleon (YN) and the hyperon-hyperon (YY) interactions. In this talk I will describe our current research of the Λn interaction using the E06-103 experiment performed with the CLAS detector in Hall B at Jefferson Lab. The large kinematic coverage of the CLAS combined with the exceptionally high quality of the experimental data allows to identify and select final-state interaction events in the reaction γd -->K+ Λn and to establish their kinematical dependencies. The large set of observables we aim to obtain will provide tight constraints on modern YN potentials. I will present the current status of the project and will discuss future incentives. for the CLAS Collaboration.

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Caldwell, P.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S.; Huber-Lee, A.; Madden, N.

2013-09-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model which considers regional trends in both water supply and demand. A snapshot of contemporary annual water demand is compared against different water supply regimes, including current average supplies, current extreme-year supplies, and projected future average surface water flows under a changing climate. In addition, we investigate the contributions of different water demand sectors to current water stress. On average, water supplies are stressed, meaning that demands for water outstrip natural supplies in over 9% of the 2103 watersheds examined. These watersheds rely on reservoir storage, conveyance systems, and groundwater to meet current water demands. Overall, agriculture is the major demand-side driver of water stress in the US, whereas municipal stress is isolated to southern California. Water stress introduced by cooling water demands for power plants is punctuated across the US, indicating that a single power plant has the potential to stress water supplies at the watershed scale. On the supply side, watersheds in the western US are particularly sensitive to low flow events and projected long-term shifts in flow driven by climate change. The WaSSI results imply that not only are water resources in the southwest in particular at risk, but that there are also potential vulnerabilities to specific sectors, even in the ‘water-rich’ southeast.

Flood risk and insurance loss potential in the Thames Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldridge, J.; Horn, D.

2009-04-01

The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, is an area of redevelopment located in the South East of England, with Government plans to create up to 160,000 new homes and 180,000 new jobs by 2016. Although the new development is intended to contribute £12bn annually to the economy, the potential flood risk is high, with much of the area situated on Thames tidal floodplain and vulnerable to both storm surges and peak river flows. This poses significant hazard to those inhabiting the area and has raised concern amongst the UK insurance industry, who would be liable for significant financial claims if a large flood event were to occur, particularly with respect to the number of new homes and businesses being built in flood risk areas. Flood risk and the potential damage to both lives and assets in vulnerable areas have gained substantial recognition, in light of recent flooding events, from both governmental agencies and in the public's awareness of flood hazard. This has resulted in a change in UK policy with planning policy for flood risk (PPS25, Planning Policy Statement 25) adopting a more strategic approach to development, as well as a new Flooding and Water Bill which is due for consultation in 2009. The Government and the Association of British Insurers, who represent the UK insurance industry, have also recently changed their Statement of Principles which guides provision of flood insurance in the future. This PhD research project aims to quantify flood risk in the Thames Gateway area with a view to evaluating the insurance loss potential under different insurance and planning scenarios. Using current sources of inundation extent, and incorporating varying insurance penetration rates and degrees of adoption of planning policy and guidance, it focuses on estimating flood risk under these different scenarios. This presentation introduces the development of the project and the theory and methodology which will be used to address the research problem, and presents the initial findings, including an overview of the major developments going ahead in the area and an indication of areas of high asset value and potential for inundation based on topography and standard of protection of defences.

A policy model of cardiovascular disease in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Schlackow, Iryna; Kent, Seamus; Herrington, William; Emberson, Jonathan; Haynes, Richard; Reith, Christina; Wanner, Christoph; Fellström, Bengt; Gray, Alastair; Landray, Martin J; Baigent, Colin; Mihaylova, Borislava

2017-12-01

To present a long-term policy model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A Markov model with transitions between CKD stages (3B, 4, 5, on dialysis, with kidney transplant) and cardiovascular events (major atherosclerotic events, haemorrhagic stroke, vascular death) was developed with individualised CKD and CVD risks estimated using the 5 years' follow-up data of the 9270 patients with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) and multivariate parametric survival analysis. The model was assessed in three further CKD cohorts and compared with currently used risk scores. Higher age, previous cardiovascular events and advanced CKD were the main contributors to increased individual disease risks. CKD and CVD risks predicted by the state-transition model corresponded well to risks observed in SHARP and external cohorts. The model's predictions of vascular risk and progression to end-stage renal disease were better than, or comparable to, those produced by other risk scores. As an illustration, at age 60-69 years, projected survival for SHARP participants in CKD stage 3B was 13.5 years (10.6 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) in men and 14.8 years (10.7 QALYs) in women. Corresponding projections for participants on dialysis were 7.5 (5.6 QALYs) and 7.8 years (5.4 QALYs). A non-fatal major atherosclerotic event reduced life expectancy by about 2 years in stage 3B and by 1 year in dialysis. The SHARP CKD-CVD model is a novel resource for evaluating health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of interventions in CKD. NCT00125593 and ISRCTN54137607; Post-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A Database of Historical Information on Landslides and Floods in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, F.; Tonelli, G.

2003-04-01

For the past 12 years we have maintained and updated a database of historical information on landslides and floods in Italy, known as the National Research Council's AVI (Damaged Urban Areas) Project archive. The database was originally designed to respond to a specific request of the Minister of Civil Protection, and was aimed at helping the regional assessment of landslide and flood risk in Italy. The database was first constructed in 1991-92 to cover the period 1917 to 1990. Information of damaging landslide and flood event was collected by searching archives, by screening thousands of newspaper issues, by reviewing the existing technical and scientific literature on landslides and floods in Italy, and by interviewing landslide and flood experts. The database was then updated chiefly through the analysis of hundreds of newspaper articles, and it now covers systematically the period 1900 to 1998, and non-systematically the periods 1900 to 1916 and 1999 to 2002. Non systematic information on landslide and flood events older than 20th century is also present in the database. The database currently contains information on more than 32,000 landslide events occurred at more than 25,700 sites, and on more than 28,800 flood events occurred at more than 15,600 sites. After a brief outline of the history and evolution of the AVI Project archive, we present and discuss: (a) the present structure of the database, including the hardware and software solutions adopted to maintain, manage, use and disseminate the information stored in the database, (b) the type and amount of information stored in the database, including an estimate of its completeness, and (c) examples of recent applications of the database, including a web-based GIS systems to show the location of sites historically affected by landslides and floods, and an estimate of geo-hydrological (i.e., landslide and flood) risk in Italy based on the available historical information.

Photometric microlensing and stellar mass determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samadi, R.

Microlensing was suggested for stellar mass determination of nearby stars by several authors (e.g. Paczynski 1995 and Miralada-Escude 1996). There are two aspects in gravitational microlensing: photometry and astrometry. Here only the photometric aspect -i.e. magnification of a background source by a stellar lens- will be considered. The first study in this domain was done by Paczyński (1995). An attempt to investigate some observational constraints (Alard et al. 1996), takes its origin in this study. It will be shown here that blending of the source by the lens, not only induces a degeneracy which has been pointed out by Wozniak and Paczynski (1997) and can be removed by measuring the flux of the source outside the microlensing event, but also strongly reduces the photometric cross section as well as the duration of microlensing events. The expected number of events decreases strongly with blending. Blending effects can be reduced by selecting faint lens candidates. Unfortunately however, it is difficult to monitor a sufficient number of lens candidates per night, and restricting oneself to nearby and high proper motion objects would lead to a very small number of lens candidates. In the case of short duration events, the light curve must be sampled at short time intervals. When sampling daily, the condition is very strong and the expected rate of events very small. Observing from space would increase significantly the rate, but this gain is still insufficient. We conclude that the event rate will be very small and that the project does not seem to be feasible at least under current observing conditions and even in the near future.

Atmospheric River Frequency and Intensity Changes in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2012-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is currently unclear how these events will change in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change in the coming century. While climate model global mean precipitation match observations reasonably well in historical runs, precipitation frequency and intensity is generally poorly represented at local scales; however, synoptic-scale features are more realistically simulated by climate models, and AR events can be identified by extremely high values of integrated water vapor flux at points near the West Coast. There have been many recent studies indicating changes in synoptic-scale features under climate change that could have meaningful impacts on the frequency and intensity of ARs. In this study, a suite of CMIP5 models are used to analyze predicted changes in frequency and intensity of AR events impacting the West Coast from the contemporary period (1970-1999) to the end of this century (2070-2099). Generally, integrated water vapor is predicted to increase in these models (both the mean and extremes) while low-level wind decreases and upper-level wind increases. This study aims to determine the influence of these changes on precipitation intensity in AR events in future climate simulations.

MEASUREMENTS OF THE CONFINEMENT LEAKTIGHTNESS AT THE KOLA NUCLEAR POWER STATION (UNIT 2) IN RUSSIA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

GREENE,G.A.; GUPPY,J.G.

1998-08-01

This is the final report on the INSP project entitled, ``Kola Confinement Leaktightness'' conducted by BNL under the authorization of Project Work Plan WBS 1.2.2.1. This project was initiated in February 1993 to assist the Russians to reduce risks associated with the continued operation of older Soviet-designed nuclear power plants, specifically the Kola VVER-440/230 Units 1 and 2, through upgrades in the confinement performance to reduce the uncontrolled leakage rate. The major technical objective of this-project was to improve the leaktightness of the Kola NPP VVER confinement boundaries, through the application of a variety of sealants to penetrations, doors andmore » hatches, seams and surfaces, to the extent that current technology permitted. A related objective was the transfer, through training of Russian staff, of the materials application procedures to the staff of the Kola NPP. This project was part of an overall approach to minimizing uncontrolled releases from the Kola NPP VVER440/230s in the event of a serious accident, and to thereby significantly mitigate the consequences of such an accident. The US provided materials, application technology, and applications equipment for application of sealant materials, surface coatings, potting materials and gaskets, to improve the confinement leaktightness of the Kola VVER-440/23Os. The US provided for training of Russian personnel in the applications technology.« less

IYA 2009 in Second Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauthier, Adrienne J.; Gay, P. L.; New Media Working Group

2008-05-01

The New Media Group is working to create an IYA 2009 presence in the 3-dimensional multi-user virtual world called Second Life (SL). Current installations, development plans, and collaboration initiatives will be discussed. The first wave of development will bring real-life (RL) IYA 2009 events and exhibits to the residents of Second Life. Informational kiosks with IYA 2009 freebie avatar clothing will be placed in a variety of science-related places and other high traffic locations in SL. The IYA 2009 cornerstone project "From Earth to the Universe” is planned to be a portable exhibit in SL that can reside in temporary locations and be unveiled for special events. Interactive exhibits for "Years of Astronomy Timeline", "Galileo's Telescope", and "Dark Sky Awareness” will also be under design. Live events such as public lectures, coffee talks, and a web-streamed opening ceremonies SL party are also in the works. These are our ideas, now we want yours! Our ultimate plan is to bring together all those nationally and internationally interested in brainstorming, creating, and developing content, exhibits, and activities in Second Life for IYA 2009. Sharing resources, sponsorship, and land space will help us all succeed in bringing astronomy to the public in 2009 and beyond.

IYA2009 in Second Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauthier, A.; Gay, P. L.

2008-11-01

The New Media Group is working to create an IYA2009 presence in the 3-dimensional multi-user virtual world called Second Life (SL). Current installations, development plans, and collaboration initiatives will be discussed. The first wave of development will bring real-life (RL) IYA2009 events and exhibits to the residents of Second Life. Informational kiosks with IYA2009 freebie avatar clothing will be placed in a variety of science-related places and other high traffic locations in SL. The IYA 2009 cornerstone project ``From Earth to the Universe'' is planned to be a portable exhibit in SL that can reside in temporary locations and be unveiled for special events. Interactive exhibits for ``400 Years of Astronomy Timeline,'' ``Galileo's Telescope,'' and ``Dark Sky Awareness'' will also be under design. Live events such as public lectures, coffee talks, and a web-streamed opening ceremonies SL party are also in the works. Our ultimate plan is to bring together all those interested in brainstorming, creating, and developing content, exhibits, and activities in Second Life for IYA2009. Sharing resources, sponsorship, and land space will help us all succeed in bringing astronomy to the public in 2009 and beyond.

New capabilities in the HENP grand challenge storage access systemand its application at RHIC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernardo, L.; Gibbard, B.; Malon, D.

2000-04-25

The High Energy and Nuclear Physics Data Access GrandChallenge project has developed an optimizing storage access softwaresystem that was prototyped at RHIC. It is currently undergoingintegration with the STAR experiment in preparation for data taking thatstarts in mid-2000. The behavior and lessons learned in the RHIC MockData Challenge exercises are described as well as the observedperformance under conditions designed to characterize scalability. Up to250 simultaneous queries were tested and up to 10 million events across 7event components were involved in these queries. The system coordinatesthe staging of "bundles" of files from the HPSS tape system, so that allthe needed componentsmore » of each event are in disk cache when accessed bythe application software. The caching policy algorithm for thecoordinated bundle staging is described in the paper. The initialprototype implementation interfaced to the Objectivity/DB. In this latestversion, it evolved to work with arbitrary files and use CORBA interfacesto the tag database and file catalog services. The interface to the tagdatabase and the MySQL-based file catalog services used by STAR aredescribed along with the planned usage scenarios.« less

Treatment Option Overview (Small Cell Lung Cancer)

MedlinePlus

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Treatment Options for Adult Hodgkin Lymphoma

MedlinePlus

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The Roles of Ability, Personality, and Interests in Acquiring Current Events Knowledge: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hambrick, David Z.; Pink, Jeffrey E.; Meinz, Elizabeth J.; Pettibone, Jonathan C.; Oswald, Frederick L.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate sources of inter-individual differences in current events knowledge. The study occurred in two sessions. In the initial session, 579 participants completed tests to ability, personality, and interest factors, as well as prior knowledge of current events. Approximately 10 weeks later, participants…

A Counter-Intuitive Strategy: Reduce Student Stress by Teaching Current Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passe, Jeff

2008-01-01

Should elementary school students be introduced to disturbing current events topics? A common response would be to protect the innocence of young children, allowing them to live their lives relatively free of the troubles that beset the world. But closer examination reveals that the study of current events actually helps to reduce fear and worry.…

Connecting Oceanography and Music

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beauregard, J. L.

2016-02-01

Capturing and retaining the interest of non-science majors in science classes can be difficult, no matter what type of science. At Berklee College of Music, this challenge is especially significant, as all students are music majors. In my Introductory Oceanography course, I use a final project as a way for the students to link class material with their own interests. The students may choose any format to present their projects to the class; however, many students write and perform original music. The performances of ocean-themed music have become a huge draw of the Introductory Oceanography course. In an effort to expand the reach of this music, several colleagues and I organized the first Earth Day event at Berklee, `Earthapalooza 2015.' This event included performances of music originally written for the final projects, as well as other musical performances, poetry readings, guest talks, and information booths. Although the idea of an Earth Day event is not new, this event is unique in that student performances really resonate with the student audience. Additionally, since many of these students will enter professional careers in the performance and recording industries, the potential exists for them to expose large audiences to the issues of oceanography through music. In this presentation, I will play examples of original student compositions and show video of the live student performances. I will also discuss the benefits and challenges of the final projects and the Earth Day event. Finally, I will highlight the future plans to continue ocean-themed music at Berklee.

Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, K. L.

2015-12-01

Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

US effort on HTS power transformers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, S.

2011-11-01

Waukesha Electric Systems has been working in HTS power transformers development program under the auspices of US Government Department of Energy since 1994. This presentation will describe various milestones for this program and program history along with the lessons learned along the way. Our motivations for working on this development program based on man benefits offered by HTS power transformers to power delivery systems will be discussed. Based on various issues encountered during execution of many HTS projects, DOE has set up an independent program review process that is lead by team of experts. This team reviews are integral part of all DOE HTS projects. Success of all projects would be greatly enhanced by identifying critical issues early in the program. Requiring appropriate actions to mitigate the issues before processing further will lead to proactive interrogation and incorporation of expert's ideas in the project plans. Working of this review process will be also described in this presentation. Waukesha Electric Systems team including: Superpower-Inc, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of Houston Center for Superconductivity and Southern California Edison company was awarded a cost share grant by US Government in 2010 for development of a fault current limiting HTS power transformer. This multi year's program will require design, manufacture, installation, and monitoring of a 28 MVA tree phase transformer installed at Irvine CA. Smart Grid demonstration site. Transformer specifications along with requirements for fault current limiting and site requirement will be discussed. Design and development of various sub systems in support of this program including: HTS conductor performance specification, Dielectric system design approach, Dewar development for containing phase assemblies, cryo-cooling system design approach, etc. will be described. Finally; overall program schedule, critical milestone events, test plans and progress to date will be reported.

Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

2018-02-01

Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

Predictors of severe trunk postures among short-haul truck drivers during non-driving tasks: an exploratory investigation involving video-assessment and driver behavioural self-monitoring.

PubMed

Olson, R; Hahn, D I; Buckert, A

2009-06-01

Short-haul truck (lorry) drivers are particularly vulnerable to back pain and injury due to exposure to whole body vibration, prolonged sitting and demanding material handling tasks. The current project reports the results of video-based assessments (711 stops) and driver behavioural self-monitoring (BSM) (385 stops) of injury hazards during non-driving work. Participants (n = 3) worked in a trailer fitted with a camera system during baseline and BSM phases. Descriptive analyses showed that challenging customer environments and non-standard ingress/egress were prevalent. Statistical modelling of video-assessment results showed that each instance of manual material handling increased the predicted mean for severe trunk postures by 7%, while customer use of a forklift, moving standard pallets and moving non-standard pallets decreased predicted means by 12%, 20% and 22% respectively. Video and BSM comparisons showed that drivers were accurate at self-monitoring frequent environmental conditions, but less accurate at monitoring trunk postures and rare work events. The current study identified four predictors of severe trunk postures that can be modified to reduce risk of injury among truck drivers and showed that workers can produce reliable self-assessment data with BSM methods for frequent and easily discriminated events environmental.

Expansion and diversification of high-latitude radiolarian assemblages in the late Eocene linked to a cooling event in the southwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascher, K. M.; Hollis, C. J.; Bohaty, S. M.; Cortese, G.; McKay, R. M.; Seebeck, H.; Suzuki, N.; Chiba, K.

2015-12-01

The long-term cooling trend from middle to late Eocene was punctuated by several large-scale climate perturbations that culminated in a shift to "icehouse" climates at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. We present radiolarian micro-fossil assemblage and foraminiferal oxygen and carbon stable isotope data from Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) sites 277, 280, 281, and 283 and Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) Site 1172 to identify significant oceanographic changes in the southwest Pacific through this climate transition (~ 40-30 Ma). We find that the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum at ~ 40 Ma, which is truncated but identified by a negative shift in foraminiferal δ18O values at Site 277, is associated with a small increase in radiolarian taxa with low-latitude affinities (5 % of total fauna). In the early late Eocene at ~ 37 Ma, a positive oxygen isotope shift at Site 277 is correlated with the Priabonian Oxygen Isotope Maximum (PrOM). Radiolarian abundance, diversity, and preservation increase within this cooling event at Site 277 at the same time as diatom abundance. A negative δ18O excursion above the PrOM is correlated with a late Eocene warming event (~ 36.4 Ma). Radiolarian abundance and diversity decline within this event and taxa with low-latitude affinities reappear. Apart from this short-lived warming event, the PrOM and latest Eocene radiolarian assemblages are characterised by abundant high-latitude taxa. High-latitude taxa are also abundant during the late Eocene and early Oligocene (~ 38-30 Ma) at DSDP sites 280, 281, 283 and 1172 and are associated with very high diatom abundance. We therefore infer a northward expansion of high-latitude radiolarian taxa onto the Campbell Plateau in the latest Eocene. In the early Oligocene there is an overall decrease in radiolarian abundance and diversity at Site 277, and diatoms are scarce. These data indicate that, once the Antarctic Circumpolar Current was established in the early Oligocene (~ 30 Ma), a frontal system similar to present day developed, with nutrient-depleted Subantarctic waters bathing the area around DSDP Site 277, resulting in a more restricted siliceous plankton assemblage.

Engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal projects of sudden water pollution incidents.

PubMed

Shi, Bin; Jiang, Jiping; Liu, Rentao; Khan, Afed Ullah; Wang, Peng

2017-06-01

Without an engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal in response to sudden water pollution incidents, responders are prone to be challenged during emergency decision making. To address this gap, the concept and framework of emergency disposal engineering risks are reported in this paper. The proposed risk index system covers three stages consistent with the progress of an emergency disposal project. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA), a logical and diagrammatic method, was developed to evaluate the potential failure during the process of emergency disposal. The probability of basic events and their combination, which caused the failure of an emergency disposal project, were calculated based on the case of an emergency disposal project of an aniline pollution incident in the Zhuozhang River, Changzhi, China, in 2014. The critical events that can cause the occurrence of a top event (TE) were identified according to their contribution. Finally, advices on how to take measures using limited resources to prevent the failure of a TE are given according to the quantified results of risk magnitude. The proposed approach could be a potential useful safeguard for the implementation of an emergency disposal project during the process of emergency response.

Rainfall thresholds for the activation of shallow landslides in the Italian Alps: the role of environmental conditioning factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palladino, M. R.; Viero, A.; Turconi, L.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Melillo, M.; Luino, F.; Deganutti, A. M.; Guzzetti, F.

2018-02-01

The aim of the present work is to investigate the role exerted by selected environmental factors in the activation of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides and to identify site-specific rainfall thresholds. The study concerns the Italian Alps. The region is exposed to widespread slope instability phenomena due to its geological, morphological and climatic features. Furthermore, the high level of anthropization that characterizes wide portions of the territory increases the associated risk. Hence, the analysis of potential predisposing factors influencing landslides triggering is worthwhile to improve the current prediction skills and to enhance the preparedness and the response to these natural hazards. During the last years, the Italian National Research Council's Research Institute for Hydro-geological Protection (CNR-IRPI) has contributed to the analysis of triggering conditions for rainfall-induced landslides in the framework of a national project. The project, funded by the National Department for Civil Protection (DPC), focuses on the identification of the empirical rainfall thresholds for the activation of shallow landslides in Italy. The first outcomes of the project reveal a certain variability of the pluviometric conditions responsible for the mass movements activation, when different environmental settings are compared. This variability is probably related to the action of local environmental factors, such as lithology, climatic regime or soil characteristics. Based on this hypothesis, the present study aims to identify separated domains within the Italian Alps, where different triggering conditions exist and different countermeasures are needed for risk prevention. For this purpose, we collected information concerning 511 landslides activated in the period 2000-2012 and reconstructed 453 rainfall events supposed to be responsible for the activations. Then, we selected a set of thematic maps to represent the hypothesised landslide conditioning factors and to identify the supposed homogeneous domains within the study area. We employed an existing statistical method for the definition of the cumulated event rainfall vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, for both the entire catalogue of rainfall events and for the events falling in the separated domains. The obtained results contribute to a better understanding of the role exerted by geological, pedological and climatic factors in landslides activation and help identifying separated domains where different risk managing strategies should be adopted. The proposed methodology can be a valid support for risk reduction strategies planning at regional scale.

Using an Art Project to Stimulate Youth Interest in Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.; Brevik, Corinne E.; Steffan, Joshua J.

2017-04-01

Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events each fall during the months of September, October, November, and December. Activities are geared toward elementary-aged children to increase student engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large variety of hands-on activities that center around the event's theme. An important part of generating enthusiasm for a subject is making it interesting, and with young children art projects provide a great avenue to generate interest and enthusiasm. Such projects are fun and involve creativity, allowing the children a chance to express themselves. To this end, each of the Family Science Days includes one or more arts and crafts projects that result in a fun learning experience the children can take home. In November 2015 the art project involved creating a soil profile. The children were given a paper handout showing a soil profile sketch lined up beside a color photograph of a soil profile. They were also supplied with glue and several containers of different colored soils from surface and subsurface horizons. To create their art project, the children glued samples of soil onto their profile sketch, attempting to create a profile that looked similar to the color photograph. The handout also included fundamental information about each of the horizons shown. The children received this project with great enthusiasm. There were nine other science-based activities available at the Family Science Day when the soil art project was offered, and the art project was one of the most popular stops in the room. The children typically spent a good deal of time working on their art project, including asking questions about the various colored soils available to them and the basic properties of soil. Whether the popularity of the project came from the chance to be creative, the challenge of trying to recreate the photograph, or just a general interest in getting their fingers dirty, it is our hope (in the bigger picture) that the art project created more awareness of soil and, in at least a few of the young participants, that it might stimulate interest in soil later in their lives.

The photocurrent, noise and spectral sensitivity of rods of the monkey Macaca fascicularis.

PubMed Central

Baylor, D A; Nunn, B J; Schnapf, J L

1984-01-01

Visual transduction in rods of the cynomolgus monkey, Macaca fascicularis, was studied by recording membrane current from single outer segments projecting from small pieces of retina. Light flashes evoked transient outward-going photocurrents with saturating amplitudes of up to 34 pA. A flash causing twenty to fifty photoisomerizations gave a response of half the saturating amplitude. The response-stimulus relation was of the form 1-e-x where x is flash strength. The response to a dim flash usually had a time to peak of 150-250 ms and resembled the impulse response of a series of six low-pass filters. From the average spectral sensitivity of ten rods the rhodopsin was estimated to have a peak absorption near 491 nm. The spectral sensitivity of the rods was in good agreement with the average human scotopic visibility curve determined by Crawford (1949), when the human curve was corrected for lens absorption and self-screening of rhodopsin. Fluctuations in the photocurrent evoked by dim lights were consistent with a quantal event about 0.7 pA in peak amplitude. A steady light causing about 100 photoisomerizations s-1 reduced the flash sensitivity to half the dark-adapted value. At higher background levels the rod rapidly saturated. These results support the idea that dim background light desensitizes human scotopic vision by a mechanism central to the rod outer segments while scotopic saturation may occur within the outer segments. Recovery of the photocurrent after bright flashes was marked by quantized step-like events. The events had the properties expected if bleached rhodopsin in the disks occasionally caused an abrupt blockage of the dark current over about one-twentieth of the length of the outer segment. It is suggested that superposition of these events after bleaching may contribute to the threshold elevation measured psychophysically. The current in darkness showed random fluctuations which disappeared in bright light. The continuous component of the noise had a variance of about 0.03 pA2 and a power spectrum that fell to half near 3 Hz. A second component, consisting of discrete events resembling single-photon responses, was estimated to occur at a rate of 0.006 s-1. It is suggested that the continuous component of the noise may be removed from scotopic vision by a thresholding operation near the rod output. PMID:6512705

The photocurrent, noise and spectral sensitivity of rods of the monkey Macaca fascicularis.

PubMed

Baylor, D A; Nunn, B J; Schnapf, J L

1984-12-01

Visual transduction in rods of the cynomolgus monkey, Macaca fascicularis, was studied by recording membrane current from single outer segments projecting from small pieces of retina. Light flashes evoked transient outward-going photocurrents with saturating amplitudes of up to 34 pA. A flash causing twenty to fifty photoisomerizations gave a response of half the saturating amplitude. The response-stimulus relation was of the form 1-e-x where x is flash strength. The response to a dim flash usually had a time to peak of 150-250 ms and resembled the impulse response of a series of six low-pass filters. From the average spectral sensitivity of ten rods the rhodopsin was estimated to have a peak absorption near 491 nm. The spectral sensitivity of the rods was in good agreement with the average human scotopic visibility curve determined by Crawford (1949), when the human curve was corrected for lens absorption and self-screening of rhodopsin. Fluctuations in the photocurrent evoked by dim lights were consistent with a quantal event about 0.7 pA in peak amplitude. A steady light causing about 100 photoisomerizations s-1 reduced the flash sensitivity to half the dark-adapted value. At higher background levels the rod rapidly saturated. These results support the idea that dim background light desensitizes human scotopic vision by a mechanism central to the rod outer segments while scotopic saturation may occur within the outer segments. Recovery of the photocurrent after bright flashes was marked by quantized step-like events. The events had the properties expected if bleached rhodopsin in the disks occasionally caused an abrupt blockage of the dark current over about one-twentieth of the length of the outer segment. It is suggested that superposition of these events after bleaching may contribute to the threshold elevation measured psychophysically. The current in darkness showed random fluctuations which disappeared in bright light. The continuous component of the noise had a variance of about 0.03 pA2 and a power spectrum that fell to half near 3 Hz. A second component, consisting of discrete events resembling single-photon responses, was estimated to occur at a rate of 0.006 s-1. It is suggested that the continuous component of the noise may be removed from scotopic vision by a thresholding operation near the rod output.

Swiss Life Sciences - a science communication project for both schools and the wider public led by the foundation Science et Cité.

PubMed

Röthlisberger, Michael

2012-01-01

The foundation Science et Cité was founded 1998 with the aim to inform the wider Swiss public about current scientific topics and to generate a dialogue between science and society. Initiated as an independent foundation by the former State Secretary for Science and Research, Dr. Charles Kleiber, Science et Cité is now attached to the Swiss Academies of Arts and Sciences as a competence center for dialogue with the public. Due to its branches in all language regions of the country, the foundation is ideally suited to initiate and implement communication projects on a nationwide scale. These projects are subdivided into three categories: i) science communication for children/adolescents, ii) establishing a dialogue between science and the wider public, and iii) conducting the role of a national center of competence and networking in science communication. Swiss Life Sciences is a project that fits into all of these categories: a year-round program for schools is complemented with an annual event for the wider public. With the involvement of most of the major Swiss universities, the Swiss National Science Foundation, the foundation Gen Suisse and many other partners, Swiss Life Sciences also sets an example of national networking within the science communication community.

LArSoft: toolkit for simulation, reconstruction and analysis of liquid argon TPC neutrino detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snider, E. L.; Petrillo, G.

2017-10-01

LArSoft is a set of detector-independent software tools for the simulation, reconstruction and analysis of data from liquid argon (LAr) neutrino experiments The common features of LAr time projection chambers (TPCs) enable sharing of algorithm code across detectors of very different size and configuration. LArSoft is currently used in production simulation and reconstruction by the ArgoNeuT, DUNE, LArlAT, MicroBooNE, and SBND experiments. The software suite offers a wide selection of algorithms and utilities, including those for associated photo-detectors and the handling of auxiliary detectors outside the TPCs. Available algorithms cover the full range of simulation and reconstruction, from raw waveforms to high-level reconstructed objects, event topologies and classification. The common code within LArSoft is contributed by adopting experiments, which also provide detector-specific geometry descriptions, and code for the treatment of electronic signals. LArSoft is also a collaboration of experiments, Fermilab and associated software projects which cooperate in setting requirements, priorities, and schedules. In this talk, we outline the general architecture of the software and the interaction with external libraries and detector-specific code. We also describe the dynamics of LArSoft software development between the contributing experiments, the projects supporting the software infrastructure LArSoft relies on, and the core LArSoft support project.

Lessons Learned from Decontamination Experiences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorensen, JH

2000-11-16

This interim report describes a DOE project currently underway to establish what is known about decontamination of buildings and people and the procedures and protocols used to determine when and how people or buildings are considered ''clean'' following decontamination. To fulfill this objective, the study systematically examined reported decontamination experiences to determine what procedures and protocols are currently employed for decontamination, the timeframe involved to initiate and complete the decontamination process, how the contaminants were identified, the problems encountered during the decontamination process, how response efforts of agencies were coordinated, and the perceived social psychological effects on people who weremore » decontaminated or who participated in the decontamination process. Findings and recommendations from the study are intended to aid decision-making and to improve the basis for determining appropriate decontamination protocols for recovery planners and policy makers for responding to chemical and biological events.« less

From detection to deflection: Mitigation techniques for hidden global threats of natural space objects with short warning time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussein, Alaa; Rozenheck, Oshri; Entrena Utrilla, Carlos Manuel

2016-09-01

Throughout recorded history, hundreds of Earth impacts have been reported, with some catastrophic localized consequences. Based on the International Space University (ISU) Planetary Defense project named READI, we address the impact event problem by giving recommendations for the development of a planetary defense program. This paper reviews the current detection and tracking techniques and gives a set of recommendations for a better preparation to shield Earth from asteroid and cometary impacts. We also extend the use of current deflection techniques and propose a new compilation of those to deflect medium-sized potentially hazardous objects (PHOs). Using an array of techniques from high-energy lasers to defensive missiles, we present a set of protective layers to defend our planet. The paper focused on threats with a short warning period from discovery to impact with Earth, within few years.

Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

2013-05-01

This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

The gravitational Schwinger effect and attenuation of gravitational waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDougall, Patrick Guarneri

This paper will discuss the possible production of photons from gravitational waves. This process is shown to be possible by examining Feynman diagrams, the Schwinger Effect, and Hawking Radiation. The end goal of this project is to find the decay length of a gravitational wave and assert that this decay is due to photons being created at the expense of the gravitational wave. To do this, we first find the state function using the Klein Gordon equation, then find the current due to this state function. We then take the current to be directly proportional to the production rate per volume. This is then used to find the decay length that this kind of production would produce, gives a prediction of how this effect will change the distance an event creating a gravitational wave will be located, and shows that this effect is small but can be significant near the source of a gravitational wave.

The Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network (AMON)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith. M. W. E.; Fox, D. B.; Cowen, D. F.; Meszaros, P.; Tesic, G.; Fixelle, J.; Bartos, I.; Sommers, P.; Ashtekar, Abhay; Babu, G. Jogesh;

Treatment Option Overview (Mycosis Fungoides and the Sezary Syndrome)

MedlinePlus

... Events Scientific Meetings & Lectures Conferences Advisory Board Meetings Social Media Events Cancer Currents Blog All Press Releases 2018 ... Events Scientific Meetings & Lectures Conferences Advisory Board Meetings Social Media Cancer Currents Blog About NCI NCI Overview History ...

Treatment Option Overview (Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer)

MedlinePlus

... Events Scientific Meetings & Lectures Conferences Advisory Board Meetings Social Media Events Cancer Currents Blog All Press Releases 2018 ... Events Scientific Meetings & Lectures Conferences Advisory Board Meetings Social Media Cancer Currents Blog About NCI NCI Overview History ...

Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events.

PubMed

Horton, Daniel E; Skinner, Christopher B; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2014-08-01

Poor air quality causes an estimated 2.6 to 4.4 million premature deaths per year 1-3 . Hazardous conditions form when meteorological components allow the accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere 4-8 . Global warming-driven changes to atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle 9-13 are expected to alter the meteorological components that control pollutant build-up and dispersal 5-8,14 , but the magnitude, direction, geographic footprint, and public health impact of this alteration remain unclear 7,8 . We utilize an air stagnation index and an ensemble of bias-corrected climate model simulations to quantify the response of stagnation occurrence and persistence to global warming. Our analysis projects increases in stagnation occurrence that cover 55% of the current global population, with areas of increase affecting 10 times more people than areas of decrease. By the late-21 st century, robust increases of up to 40 days per year are projected throughout the majority of the tropics and subtropics, as well as within isolated mid-latitude regions. Potential impacts over India, Mexico, and the western U.S. are particularly acute due to the intersection of large populations and increases in the persistence of stagnation events, including those of extreme duration. These results indicate that anthropogenic climate change is likely to alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets.

To examine the effectiveness of a hospital-based nurse-led secondary prevention clinic.

PubMed

Mainie, Paula M; Moore, Gillian; Riddell, John W; Adgey, A A Jennifer

2005-12-01

Modification of cardiovascular risk factors can reduce the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), effectively extend survival, decrease the need for interventional procedures, and improve quality of life in persons with known cardiovascular disease. Pharmacological treatments and important lifestyle changes reduce people's risks substantially (by 1/3 to 2/3) and can slow and perhaps reverse progression of established coronary disease. When used appropriately, these interventions are more cost-effective than many other treatments, currently provided by the National Health Service [Department of Health National Service Frameworks: coronary heart disease. Preventing coronary heart disease in high risk patients. 2000. HMSO.] Secondary prevention clinics are effective means by which to ensure targets are achieved and assist primary care in long-term maintenance of lifestyle change and drug optimisation. A 2-year hospital-based pilot project was established at the Royal Hospitals, April 2001-April 2003. The aim of the project was to target patients with coronary heart disease, post-MI and/or coronary artery bypass grafting and/or percutaneous coronary intervention, 6 months following their cardiac event. The plan was to assess patient risk factors and medication a minimum of 6 months following their cardiac event to ascertain if government targets were being achieved; secondly, to examine the effectiveness of a hospital-based nurse-led secondary prevention clinic on modifying risk factors and optimising drug therapies.

Climate Connections in Virginia: Your Actions Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, J. S.; Maurakis, E. G.

2016-12-01

Our project objectives are to educate the general public about the science of climate change on global and local scales, highlight current and potential future impacts of climate change on Virginia and its communities, define community climate resiliency and why it is important, illustrate how individuals can contribute to the resiliency of their own community by taking personal steps to be prepared for weather events and health threats related to climate change, and, foster a conversion of climate change awareness and understanding into personal action to increase readiness and resiliency in homes, schools, and communities. The communication methods used to convey climate change and resiliency information are: development of new programming for the museum's NOAA Science on a Sphere® and digital Dome theater, production of a statewide digital media series (24 audio and 12 video content pieces/year), engagement with social media platforms, a public lecture series, facilitation of resiliency-themed programming (Art Lab, Challenge Lab, EcoLab), establishment of extreme event readiness challenge workshops, and enacting community preparedness and resiliency checklist and certification programs. A front-end evaluation was conducted to survey general audience understanding of the difference between climate and weather, climate change impacts, and resilience. We seek here to share some initial content and reflection based on the first few months of this project. Funded by NOAA Award NA15SEC0080009 and the Virginia Environmental Endowment.

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-Chyi

2010-01-01

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

General practitioners' attitudes toward reporting and learning from adverse events: results from a survey.

PubMed

Mikkelsen, Thorbjørn H; Sokolowski, Ineta; Olesen, Frede

2006-03-01

To investigate GPs' attitudes to and willingness to report and learn from adverse events and to study how a reporting system should function. Survey. General practice in Denmark. GPs' attitudes to exchange of experience with colleagues and others, and circumstances under which such exchange is accepted. A structured questionnaire sent to 1198 GPs of whom 61% responded. RESULTS. GPs had a positive attitude towards discussing adverse events in the clinic with colleagues and staff and in their continuing medical education groups. The GPs had a positive attitude to reporting adverse events to a database if the system granted legal and administrative immunity to reporters. The majority preferred a reporting system located at a research institute. GPs have a very positive attitude towards discussing and reporting adverse events. This project encourages further research and pilot projects testing concrete reporting systems.

Crash Models for Advanced Automotive Batteries: A Review of the Current State of the Art

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, John A.; Allu, Srikanth; Gorti, Sarma B.

Safety is a critical aspect of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery design. Impact/crash conditions can trigger a complex interplay of mechanical contact, heat generation and electrical discharge, which can result in adverse thermal events. The cause of these thermal events has been linked to internal contact between the opposite electrodes, i.e. internal short circuit. The severity of the outcome is influenced by the configuration of the internal short circuit and the battery state. Different loading conditions and battery states may lead to micro (soft) shorts where material burnout due to generated heat eliminates contact between the electrodes, or persistent (hard) shorts whichmore » can lead to more significant thermal events and potentially damage the entire battery system and beyond. Experimental characterization of individual battery components for the onset of internal shorts is limited, since it is impractical to canvas all possible variations in battery state of charge, operating conditions, and impact loading in a timely manner. This report provides a survey of modeling and simulation approaches and documents a project initiated and funded by DOT/NHTSA to improve modeling and simulation capabilities in order to design tests that provide leading indicators of failure in batteries. In this project, ORNL has demonstrated a computational infrastructure to conduct impact simulations of Li-ion batteries using models that resolve internal structures and electro-thermo-chemical and mechanical conditions. Initial comparisons to abuse experiments on cells and cell strings conducted at ORNL and Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) at Carderock MD for parameter estimation and model validation have been performed. This research has provided insight into the mechanisms of deformation in batteries (both at cell and electrode level) and their relationship to the safety of batteries.« less

A high-throughput, multi-channel photon-counting detector with picosecond timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapington, J. S.; Fraser, G. W.; Miller, G. M.; Ashton, T. J. R.; Jarron, P.; Despeisse, M.; Powolny, F.; Howorth, J.; Milnes, J.

2009-06-01

High-throughput photon counting with high time resolution is a niche application area where vacuum tubes can still outperform solid-state devices. Applications in the life sciences utilizing time-resolved spectroscopies, particularly in the growing field of proteomics, will benefit greatly from performance enhancements in event timing and detector throughput. The HiContent project is a collaboration between the University of Leicester Space Research Centre, the Microelectronics Group at CERN, Photek Ltd., and end-users at the Gray Cancer Institute and the University of Manchester. The goal is to develop a detector system specifically designed for optical proteomics, capable of high content (multi-parametric) analysis at high throughput. The HiContent detector system is being developed to exploit this niche market. It combines multi-channel, high time resolution photon counting in a single miniaturized detector system with integrated electronics. The combination of enabling technologies; small pore microchannel plate devices with very high time resolution, and high-speed multi-channel ASIC electronics developed for the LHC at CERN, provides the necessary building blocks for a high-throughput detector system with up to 1024 parallel counting channels and 20 ps time resolution. We describe the detector and electronic design, discuss the current status of the HiContent project and present the results from a 64-channel prototype system. In the absence of an operational detector, we present measurements of the electronics performance using a pulse generator to simulate detector events. Event timing results from the NINO high-speed front-end ASIC captured using a fast digital oscilloscope are compared with data taken with the proposed electronic configuration which uses the multi-channel HPTDC timing ASIC.

The 2010 Pakistan floods: high-resolution simulations with the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viterbo, Francesca; Parodi, Antonio; Molini, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa

2013-04-01

Estimating current and future water resources in high mountain regions with complex orography is a difficult but crucial task. In particular, the French-Italian project PAPRIKA is focused on two specific regions in the Hindu-Kush -- Himalaya -- Karakorum (HKKH)region: the Shigar basin in Pakistan, at the feet of K2, and the Khumbu valley in Nepal, at the feet of Mount Everest. In this framework, we use the WRF model to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions with high resolution in areas with extreme orographic slopes, comparing the model output with station and satellite data. Once validated the model, we shall run a set of three future time-slices at very high spatial resolution, in the periods 2046-2050, 2071-2075 and 2096-2100, nested in different climate change scenarios (EXtreme PREcipitation and Hydrological climate Scenario Simulations -EXPRESS-Hydro project). As a prelude to this study, here we discuss the simulation of specific, high-intensity rainfall events in this area. In this paper we focus on the 2010 Pakistan floods which began in late July 2010, producing heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan and affecting the Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater, with a death toll of about 2000 people. This event has been simulated with the WRF model (version 3.3.) in cloud-permitting mode (d01 14 km and d02 3.5 km): different convective closures and microphysics parameterization have been used. A deeper understanding of the processes responsible for this event has been gained through comparison with rainfall depth observations, radiosounding data and geostationary/polar satellite images.

Novartis School Lab: bringing young people closer to the world of research and discovering the excitement of science.

PubMed

Michel, Christiane Röckl; Standke, Gesche; Naef, Reto

2012-01-01

The Novartis School Lab (http://www.novartis.ch/schullabor) is an institution with an old tradition. The School Lab reaches about 5000 students through internal courses and an additional 5000 children at public science events where they can enjoy hands-on science in disciplines of biomedical research. The subjects range from chemistry, physics, molecular biology and genetics to toxicology and medical topics. The Novartis School Lab offers a variety of activities for youngsters aged 10-20 ranging from lab courses for school classes, continuing education for teachers and development of teaching kits, support for individual research projects to outreach for public science events. Innovation and adaptation to changes of current needs are essential aspects for the Novartis School Lab. Ongoing activities to shape the Novartis Biomedical Learning Lab include design of new teaching experiments, exploration into additional disciplines of biomedical science and the creation of a fascinating School Lab of the future.

An artificial retina processor for track reconstruction at the LHC crossing rate

DOE PAGES

Bedeschi, F.; Cenci, R.; Marino, P.; ...

2017-11-23

The goal of the INFN-RETINA R&D project is to develop and implement a computational methodology that allows to reconstruct events with a large number (> 100) of charged-particle tracks in pixel and silicon strip detectors at 40 MHz, thus matching the requirements for processing LHC events at the full bunch-crossing frequency. Our approach relies on a parallel pattern-recognition algorithm, dubbed artificial retina, inspired by the early stages of image processing by the brain. In order to demonstrate that a track-processing system based on this algorithm is feasible, we built a sizable prototype of a tracking processor tuned to 3 000more » patterns, based on already existing readout boards equipped with Altera Stratix III FPGAs. The detailed geometry and charged-particle activity of a large tracking detector currently in operation are used to assess its performances. Here, we report on the test results with such a prototype.« less

Comparison of $$\

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, C.; et al.

We measure a large set of observables in inclusive charged current muon neutrino scattering on argon with the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber operating at Fermilab. We evaluate three neutrino interaction models based on the widely used GENIE event generator using these observables. The measurement uses a data set consisting of neutrino interactions with a final state muon candidate fully contained within the MicroBooNE detector. These data were collected in 2016 with the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam, which has an average neutrino energy of 800 MeV, using an exposure corresponding to 5e19 protons-on-target. The analysis employs fully automatic eventmore » selection and charged particle track reconstruction and uses a data-driven technique to separate neutrino interactions from cosmic ray background events. We find that GENIE models consistently describe the shapes of a large number of kinematic distributions for fixed observed multiplicity, but we show an indication that the observed multiplicity fractions deviate from GENIE expectations.« less

Kennedy Space Center Timing and Countdown Interface to Kennedy Ground Control Subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, James C.

2015-01-01

Kennedy Ground Control System (KGCS) engineers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC) are developing a time-tagging process to enable reconstruction of the events during a launch countdown. Such a process can be useful in the case of anomalies or other situations where it is necessary to know the exact time an event occurred. It is thus critical for the timing information to be accurate. KGCS will synchronize all items with Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) obtained from the Timing and Countdown (T&CD) organization. Network Time Protocol (NTP) is the protocol currently in place for synchronizing UTC. However, NTP has a peak error that is too high for today's standards. Precision Time Protocol (PTP) is a newer protocol with a much smaller peak error. The focus of this project has been to implement a PTP solution on the network to increase timing accuracy while introducing and configuring the implementation of a firewall between T&CD and the KGCS network.

Gas Ring-Imagining Cherenkov (GRINCH) Detector for the Super BigBite Spectrometer at Jefferson Lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averett, Todd; Wojtsekhowski, Bogdan; Amidouch, Abdellah; Danagoulian, Samuel; Niculescu, Gabriel; Niculescu, Ioana; Jefferson Lab SBS Collaboration Collaboration

2017-01-01

A new gas Cherenkov detector is under construction for the upcoming SuperBigBite spectrometer research program in Hall A at Jefferson Lab. The existing BigBite spectrometer is being upgraded to handle expected increases in event rate and background rate due to the increased luminosity required for the experimental program. The detector will primarily be used to separate good electron events from significant pion and electromagnetic contamination. In contrast to typical gas Cherenkov detectors that use large-diameter photomultiplier tubes and charge integrating ADCs, this detector uses an array of 510 small-diameter tubes that are more than 25x less sensitive to background. Cherenkov radiation clusters will be identified in this array using fast TDCs and a narrow timing window relative to typical ADC gates. In addition, a new FPGA-based DAQ system is being tested to provide a PID trigger using real-time cluster finding. Details of the detector and current status of the project will be presented.

An artificial retina processor for track reconstruction at the LHC crossing rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bedeschi, F.; Cenci, R.; Marino, P.

The goal of the INFN-RETINA R&D project is to develop and implement a computational methodology that allows to reconstruct events with a large number (> 100) of charged-particle tracks in pixel and silicon strip detectors at 40 MHz, thus matching the requirements for processing LHC events at the full bunch-crossing frequency. Our approach relies on a parallel pattern-recognition algorithm, dubbed artificial retina, inspired by the early stages of image processing by the brain. In order to demonstrate that a track-processing system based on this algorithm is feasible, we built a sizable prototype of a tracking processor tuned to 3 000more » patterns, based on already existing readout boards equipped with Altera Stratix III FPGAs. The detailed geometry and charged-particle activity of a large tracking detector currently in operation are used to assess its performances. Here, we report on the test results with such a prototype.« less

Algorithm for evaluating the effectiveness of a high-rise development project based on current yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soboleva, Elena

2018-03-01

The article is aimed at the issues of operational evaluation of development project efficiency in high-rise construction under the current economic conditions in Russia. The author touches the following issues: problems of implementing development projects, the influence of the operational evaluation quality of high-rise construction projects on general efficiency, assessing the influence of the project's external environment on the effectiveness of project activities under crisis conditions and the quality of project management. The article proposes the algorithm and the methodological approach to the quality management of the developer project efficiency based on operational evaluation of the current yield efficiency. The methodology for calculating the current efficiency of a development project for high-rise construction has been updated.

Precise ground motion measurements to support multi-hazard analysis in Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè; Duro, Javier; Garcia Robles, Javier; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.

2015-04-01

Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia and is home to approximately 10 million people on the coast of the Java Sea. The Capital District of Jakarta (DKI) sits in the lowest lying areas of the basin. Its topography varies, with the northern part just meters above current sea level and lying on a flood plain. Subsequently, this portion of the city frequently floods. Flood events have been increasing in severity during the past decade. The February 2007 event inundated 235 Km2 (about 36%) of the city, by up to seven meters in some areas. This event affected more than 2.6 million people; the estimated financial and economic losses from this event amounted to US900 million [1][2]. Inundations continue to occur under any sustained rainfall conditions. Flood events in Jakarta are expected to become more frequent in coming years, with a shift from previously slow natural processes with low frequency to a high frequency process resulting in severe socio-economic damage. Land subsidence in Jakarta results in increased vulnerability to flooding due to the reduced gravitational capacity to channel storm flows to the sea and an increased risk of tidal flooding. It continues at increasingly alarming rates, principally caused by intensive deep groundwater abstraction [3]. Recent studies have found typical subsidence rates of 7.5-10 cm a year. In localized areas of north Jakarta subsidence in the range 15-25 cm a year is occurring which, if sustained, would result in them sinking to 4-5 m below sea level by 2025 [3]. ALTAMIRA INFORMATION, company specialized in ground motion monitoring, has developed GlobalSARTM, which combines several processing techniques and algorithms based on InSAR technology, to achieve ground motion measurements with millimetric precision and high accuracy [4]. Within the RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk) project, ALTAMIRA INFORMATION will apply GlobalSARTM to assess recent land subsidence in Jakarta, based on the processing of Very High Resolution COSMO-SkyMed data acquired from the second semester 2014. Those recent measurements will be analyzed and compared with results obtained previously within the ESA /World Bank EOWorld initiative [4]. An updated status of the situation in Jakarta will be derived of this analysis; this information will serve within RASOR for the assessment of future risk which is valuable for planning of flood protection. [1] 'News and Broadcast: Jakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation Project/Jakarta Emergency Dredging Initiative Project (JUFMP/JEDI Project)', http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/. [2]http://www.who.int/hac/crises/idn/sitreps/indonesia_floods_map_affected_areas_5feb2007.pdf. [3] Abidin, H. Z., Andreas, H., Gumilar, I., Gamal, M., Fukuda, Y. and Deguchi, T., 'Land Subsidence and Urban Development in Jakarta (Indonesia)', Proceedings of 7th FIG Regional Conference Spatial Data Serving People: Land Governance and the Environment - Building the Capacity (2009). [4] European Space Agency and World Bank, Earth Observation for sustainable Development, Partnership report (2013).

Kaizen newspaper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shearer, Scott C. (Inventor); Proferes, John Nicholas (Inventor); Baker, Sr., Mitchell D. (Inventor); Reilly, Kenneth B. (Inventor); Tiwari, Vijai K. (Inventor)

2013-01-01

Systems, computer program products, and methods are disclosed for tracking an improvement event. An embodiment includes an event interface configured to receive a plurality of entries related to each of a plurality of improvement events. The plurality of entries includes a project identifier for the improvement event, a creation date, an objective, an action related to reaching the objective, and a first deadline related to the improvement event. A database interface is configured to store the plurality of entries in an event database.

Treatment Options for Recurrent Mycosis Fungoides and the Sezary Syndrome

MedlinePlus

... Events Scientific Meetings & Lectures Conferences Advisory Board Meetings Social Media Events Cancer Currents Blog All Press Releases 2018 ... Events Scientific Meetings & Lectures Conferences Advisory Board Meetings Social Media Cancer Currents Blog About NCI NCI Overview History ...

Stress the Local Angle...Keep the Yearbook Currently Eventful.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stano, Randy

1980-01-01

Suggests that while current events should be recorded in school yearbooks, the local angle should be stressed. Provides illustrations of how this might be done with such topics as gasoline prices, inflation, foreign events, and political campaigns. (TJ)

Downeast Drainage - Examining and Communicating the Dynamics of Bacteria Pollution Events in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S. M.; Brady, D. C.; Cole, K. L.; Jones, S.; McGreavy, B.; Petersen, C.; Rothenheber, D.; Gerard, B.; Roy, S. G.

2015-12-01

The New England Sustainability Consortium is an interdisciplinary NSF EPSCoR funded project organized to strengthen the connections between science and decision-making and to advance the practice of sustainability science. The project uses complementary research capacity at several institutions to examine watershed and estuarine processes linked to bacteria pollution affecting shellfish harvesting and beach water quality in the Gulf of Maine. A fundamental research target is the development of a better approach for the prediction of coastal bacteria pollution events that can cause losses in tourism and shellfishery revenue. Enhanced prediction and communication of the events require a simultaneous examination of watershed pollution sources, drainage systems, estuarine residence times and bacterial survival. Our presentation will summarize initial observations from our investigations and stakeholder engagement activities at two project reference sites located in Wells and Bar Harbor, Maine. These will include field measurements, watershed and estuarine modeling outcomes, and stakeholder engagement results that are framed to quantify and explain land-sea interactions linked to bacterial pollution events in locations with varied relief, hydrodynamics, and stakeholder communities.

Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC year 1 quarter 4 progress report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lottes, S.A.; Kulak, R.F.; Bojanowski, C.

2011-12-09

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) focus areas at Argonne's Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) initiated a project to support and compliment the experimental programs at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) with high performance computing based analysis capabilities in August 2010. The project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at TFHRC for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. Themore » analysis methods employ well-benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focus of the project are wind and water effects on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to assess them for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, CFD analysis of the operation of the wind tunnel in the TFCHR wind engineering laboratory, vehicle stability under high wind loading, and the use of electromagnetic shock absorbers to improve vehicle stability under high wind conditions. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of July through September 2011.« less

Dynamic Modeling of New Technology Succession: Projecting the Impact of Macro Events and Micro Behaviors On Software Market Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertz, Sharon A.; Groothuis, Adam; Fellman, Philip Vos

The subject of technology succession and new technology adoption in a generalized sense has been addressed by numerous authors for over one hundred years. Models which accommodate macro-level events as well as micro-level actions are needed to gain insight to future market outcomes. In the ICT industry, macro-level factors affecting technology adoption include global events and shocks, economic factors, and global regulatory trends. Micro-level elements involve individual agent actions and interactions, such as the behaviors of buyers and suppliers in reaction to each other, and to macro events. Projecting technology adoption and software market composition and growth requires evaluating a special set of technology characteristics, buyer behaviors, and supplier issues and responses which make this effort particularly challenging.

Using Near Real-Time Mission Data for Education and Public Outreach: Strategies from the Life in the Atacama E/PO Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, E.; Coppin, P.; Wagner, M.; Fischer, K.; Lu, L.; McCloskey, R.; Seneker, D.; Cabrol, N.; Wettergreen, D.; Waggoner, A.

2005-01-01

The EventScope educational telepresence project has been involved with education and public outreach for a number of NASA-sponsored missions including the Mars Exploration Rovers, the Odyssey Mission, and the Life in the Atacama project. However, during the second year of operations in the Atacama, a modified version of the EventScope public interface was used as the remote science operations interface. In addition, the EventScope lab hosted remote science operations. This intimate connection with the mission operations allowed the EventScope team to bring the experience of the mission to the public in near real-time. Playing to this strength, the lab developed strategies for releasing E/PO content as close to real-time as possible.

100 Hours of Astronomy Cornerstone Project of IYA2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmons, M.

2008-11-01

The 100 Hours of Astronomy cornerstone project (100HA) is a round-the-clock, worldwide event with 100 continuous hours of a wide range of public outreach activities taking place from 2--5 April. A high-profile opening event will include presentation of Galileo's original telescope. Webcasts of international science center discussions and 24 hours of webcasts from professional research observatories will follow. A 24-hour global star party will occur on the last day. The Moon's phase will range from first quarter to gibbous, good phases for early evening observing, and Saturn will also be well placed for early evening observing events. Amateur astronomers will be encouraged to present educational events in schools as well as non-traditional venues. Online resources will include advertising, educational and how-to materials.

Project Management in Real Time: A Service-Learning Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Erik; Drexler, John A., Jr.

2010-01-01

This article describes a service-learning assignment for a project management course. It is designed to facilitate hands-on student learning of both the technical and the interpersonal aspects of project management, and it involves student engagement with real customers and real stakeholders in the creation of real events with real outcomes. As…

Increasing the Impact of Federally-Administered Vocational Education Exemplary Projects. Final Report. Leadership Training Series No. 52.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hull, William L.; Bina, James V.

This report was written as a companion piece to "Increasing the Impact of Innovative Projects," proceedings of the national conference on the impact of federally-administered vocational education exemplary projects. Brief descriptions of the project's accomplishments, major activities and events, problems, publicity activities, and dissemination…

Characterizing the cancer genome in lung adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Weir, Barbara A.; Woo, Michele S.; Getz, Gad; Perner, Sven; Ding, Li; Beroukhim, Rameen; Lin, William M.; Province, Michael A.; Kraja, Aldi; Johnson, Laura A.; Shah, Kinjal; Sato, Mitsuo; Thomas, Roman K.; Barletta, Justine A.; Borecki, Ingrid B.; Broderick, Stephen; Chang, Andrew C.; Chiang, Derek Y.; Chirieac, Lucian R.; Cho, Jeonghee; Fujii, Yoshitaka; Gazdar, Adi F.; Giordano, Thomas; Greulich, Heidi; Hanna, Megan; Johnson, Bruce E.; Kris, Mark G.; Lash, Alex; Lin, Ling; Lindeman, Neal; Mardis, Elaine R.; McPherson, John D.; Minna, John D.; Morgan, Margaret B.; Nadel, Mark; Orringer, Mark B.; Osborne, John R.; Ozenberger, Brad; Ramos, Alex H.; Robinson, James; Roth, Jack A.; Rusch, Valerie; Sasaki, Hidefumi; Shepherd, Frances; Sougnez, Carrie; Spitz, Margaret R.; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Twomey, David; Verhaak, Roel G. W.; Weinstock, George M.; Wheeler, David A.; Winckler, Wendy; Yoshizawa, Akihiko; Yu, Soyoung; Zakowski, Maureen F.; Zhang, Qunyuan; Beer, David G.; Wistuba, Ignacio I.; Watson, Mark A.; Garraway, Levi A.; Ladanyi, Marc; Travis, William D.; Pao, William; Rubin, Mark A.; Gabriel, Stacey B.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Varmus, Harold E.; Wilson, Richard K.; Lander, Eric S.; Meyerson, Matthew

2008-01-01

Somatic alterations in cellular DNA underlie almost all human cancers1. The prospect of targeted therapies2 and the development of high-resolution, genome-wide approaches3–8 are now spurring systematic efforts to characterize cancer genomes. Here we report a large-scale project to characterize copy-number alterations in primary lung adenocarcinomas. By analysis of a large collection of tumors (n = 371) using dense single nucleotide polymorphism arrays, we identify a total of 57 significantly recurrent events. We find that 26 of 39 autosomal chromosome arms show consistent large-scale copy-number gain or loss, of which only a handful have been linked to a specific gene. We also identify 31 recurrent focal events, including 24 amplifications and 7 homozygous deletions. Only six of these focal events are currently associated with known mutations in lung carcinomas. The most common event, amplification of chromosome 14q13.3, is found in ~12% of samples. On the basis of genomic and functional analyses, we identify NKX2-1 (NK2 homeobox 1, also called TITF1), which lies in the minimal 14q13.3 amplification interval and encodes a lineage-specific transcription factor, as a novel candidate proto-oncogene involved in a significant fraction of lung adenocarcinomas. More generally, our results indicate that many of the genes that are involved in lung adenocarcinoma remain to be discovered. PMID:17982442

The influence of types of war experiences on conduct problems in war-affected youth in Northern Ugandan: Findings from the WAYS study.

PubMed

Amone-P Olak, Kennedy; Ovuga, Emilio

2017-05-01

Exposure to war is associated with poor psychosocial outcomes. Yet the effects of different types of war events on various psychosocial outcomes such as conduct problems remain unknown. This study aims to assess whether various war events differ in predicting conduct problems. Using data from an on-going longitudinal research project, the WAYS study, the current article examined the relationship between specific war events and conduct problems in war-affected youth in Northern Uganda (N=539, baseline age=22.39; SD=2.03, range 18-25). Regression analyses were conducted to relate each type of war experience to conduct problems. War categories of "witnessing violence", "deaths", "threat to loved ones" and "sexual abuse" were associated with reporting conduct problems. Multivariable models yielded independent effects of ''witnessing violence'' (β=0.09, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.18) and ''Sexual abuse'' (β=0.09, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.19) on conduct problems while "duration in captivity" independently and negatively predicted conduct problems (β=-0.14, 95% CI: -0.23, -0.06). Types of war events vary in predicting conduct problems and should be considered when designing interventions to alleviate negative consequences of exposure to war. Moreover, longer duration in captivity appear to protect war-affected youth from conduct problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of types of war experiences on conduct problems in war-affected youth in Northern Ugandan: Findings from the WAYS study

PubMed Central

Amone-P′Olak, Kennedy; Ovuga, Emilio

2017-01-01

Exposure to war is associated with poor psychosocial outcomes. Yet the effects of different types of war events on various psychosocial outcomes such as conduct problems remain unknown. This study aims to assess whether various war events differ in predicting conduct problems. Using data from an on-going longitudinal research project, the WAYS study, the current article examined the relationship between specific war events and conduct problems in war-affected youth in Northern Uganda (N=539, baseline age=22.39; SD=2.03, range 18– 25). Regression analyses were conducted to relate each type of war experience to conduct problems. War categories of “witnessing violence”, “deaths”, “threat to loved ones” and “sexual abuse” were associated with reporting conduct problems. Multivariable models yielded independent effects of “witnessing violence” (β=0.09, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.18) and “Sexual abuse” (β=0.09, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.19) on conduct problems while “duration in captivity” independently and negatively predicted conduct problems (β=−0.14, 95% CI: −0.23, −0.06). Types of war events vary in predicting conduct problems and should be considered when designing interventions to alleviate negative consequences of exposure to war. Moreover, longer duration in captivity appear to protect war-affected youth from conduct problems. PMID:28171768

Human factors engineering in oil and gas--a review of industry guidance.

PubMed

Robb, Martin; Miller, Gerald

2012-01-01

Oil and gas exploration and production activities are carried out in hazardous environments in many parts of the world. Recent events in the Gulf of Mexico highlight those risks and underline the importance of considering human factors during facility design. Ergonomic factors such as machinery design, facility and accommodation layout and the organization of work activities have been systematically considered over the past twenty years on a limited number of offshore facility design projects to a) minimize the occupational risks to personnel, b) support operations and maintenance tasks and c) improve personnel wellbeing. During this period, several regulators and industry bodies such as the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), the American Society of Testing and Materials (ASTM), the UK's Health and Safety Executive (HSE), Oil and Gas Producers (OGP), and Norway's Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) have developed specific HFE design standards and guidance documents for the application of Human Factors Engineering (HFE) to the design and operation of Oil and Gas projects. However, despite the existence of these guidance and recommended design practise documents, and documented proof of their value in enhancing crew safety and efficiency, HFE is still not well understood across the industry and application across projects is inconsistent. This paper summarizes the key Oil and Gas industry bodies' HFE guidance documents, identifies recurring themes and current trends in the use of these standards, provides examples of where and how these HFE standards have been used on past major offshore facility design projects, and suggests criteria for selecting the appropriate HFE strategy and tasks for future major oil and gas projects. It also provides a short history of the application of HFE to the offshore industry, beginning with the use of ASTM F 1166 to a major operator's Deepwater Gulf of Mexico facility in 1990 and the application of HFE to diverse world regions. This latter point highlights the need to consider user populations when selecting HFE design criteria, an aspect strongly emphasized in current industry guidance.

Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin

2015-04-01

Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in historic forecasts would result unnecessary discounts of water supply, it still performs better than M5 curves during droughts.

Modeling land surface hydrology sensitivity in the Colorado River Basin to historical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, K. M.; Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Over the past century, the Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced substantial warming and interannual climate variations, including prolonged drought periods. These patterns are projected to accelerate in the 21st century, with major consequences for water resources in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. To evaluate future projections appropriately, however, it is important to first quantify the regional hydrologic response to historical climate variability in the CRB. In the current effort, we force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model and a river routing model with historical meteorological data to estimate water balance components and naturalized streamflow response in the CRB at 1/16o spatial resolution and at an hourly time step over the period 1950-2013. We utilize data products from satellite remote sensing to specify spatiotemporal variations in vegetation parameters and include an irrigation scheme to account for evapotranspiration from croplands in the CRB. Furthermore, we apply recent modifications in VIC to more properly account for bare soil evaporation in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Analyses of the historical model simulations are focused on quantifying the spatiotemporal variability of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt response and their linkages to extreme meteorological events. Here we characterize the annual and monthly distributions, trends, and statistical extremes and central tendencies of water balance terms averaged over the CRB and its sub-basins for the entire study period 1950-2013. By building a model-based hydrologic climatology and catalog of historical extreme events for the CRB, we aim to construct a basis for future activities that analyze the impact of statistically downscaled climate change projections on the hydrology of the CRB and its urban areas.

EEG-based cognitive load of processing events in 3D virtual worlds is lower than processing events in 2D displays.

PubMed

Dan, Alex; Reiner, Miriam

2017-12-01

Interacting with 2D displays, such as computer screens, smartphones, and TV, is currently a part of our daily routine; however, our visual system is built for processing 3D worlds. We examined the cognitive load associated with a simple and a complex task of learning paper-folding (origami) by observing 2D or stereoscopic 3D displays. While connected to an electroencephalogram (EEG) system, participants watched a 2D video of an instructor demonstrating the paper-folding tasks, followed by a stereoscopic 3D projection of the same instructor (a digital avatar) illustrating identical tasks. We recorded the power of alpha and theta oscillations and calculated the cognitive load index (CLI) as the ratio of the average power of frontal theta (Fz.) and parietal alpha (Pz). The results showed a significantly higher cognitive load index associated with processing the 2D projection as compared to the 3D projection; additionally, changes in the average theta Fz power were larger for the 2D conditions as compared to the 3D conditions, while alpha average Pz power values were similar for 2D and 3D conditions for the less complex task and higher in the 3D state for the more complex task. The cognitive load index was lower for the easier task and higher for the more complex task in 2D and 3D. In addition, participants with lower spatial abilities benefited more from the 3D compared to the 2D display. These findings have implications for understanding cognitive processing associated with 2D and 3D worlds and for employing stereoscopic 3D technology over 2D displays in designing emerging virtual and augmented reality applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human Factors and ISS Medical Systems: Highlights of Procedures and Equipment Findings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byrne, V. E.; Hudy, C.; Smith, D.; Whitmore, M.

2005-01-01

As part of the Space Human Factors Engineering Critical Questions Roadmap, a three year Technology Development Project (TDP) was funded by NASA Headquarters to examine emergency medical procedures on ISS. The overall aim of the emergency medical procedures project was to determine the human factors issues in the procedures, training, communications and equipment, and to recommend solutions that will improve the survival rate of crewmembers in the event of a medical emergency. Currently, each ISS crew remains on orbit for six month intervals. As there is not standing requirement for a physician crewmember, during such time, the maintenance of crew health is dependant on individual crewmembers. Further, in the event of an emergency, crew will need to provide prolonged maintenance care, as well as emergency treatment, to an injured crewmember while awaiting transport to Earth. In addition to the isolation of the crew, medical procedures must be carried out within the further limitations imposed by the physical environment of the space station. For example, in order to administer care on ISS without the benefit of gravity, the Crew Medical Officers (CMOs) must restrain the equipment required to perform the task, restrain the injured crewmember, and finally, restrain themselves. Both the physical environment and the physical space available further limit the technology that can be used onboard. Equipment must be compact, yet able to withstand high levels of radiation and function without gravity. The focus here is to highlight the human factors impacts from our three year project involving the procedures and equipment areas that have been investigated and provided valuable to ISS and provide groundwork for human factors requirements for medical applications for exploration missions.

Cost Effectiveness of Implantable Cardiac Monitor-Guided Intermittent Anticoagulation for Atrial Fibrillation: An Analysis of the REACT.COM Pilot Study.

PubMed

Steinhaus, Daniel A; Zimetbaum, Peter J; Passman, Rod S; Leong-Sit, Peter; Reynolds, Matthew R

2016-08-30

Anticoagulation guidelines for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) disregard AF burden. A strategy of targeted anticoagulation with novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) based on continuous rhythm assessment with an implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) has recently been explored. We evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of this strategy versus projected outcomes with continuous anticoagulation. We developed a Markov model using data from the Rhythm Evaluation for AntiCoagulaTion With COntinuous Monitoring (REACT.COM) pilot study (N = 59) and prior NOAC trials to calculate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with ICM-guided intermittent anticoagulation for AF versus standard care during a 3-year time horizon. Health state utilities were estimated from the pilot study population using the SF-12. Costs were based on current Medicare reimbursement. Over 14 ± 4 months of follow-up, 18 of 59 patients had 35 AF episodes. The ICM-guided strategy resulted in a 94% reduction in anticoagulant use relative to continuous treatment. There were no strokes, 3 (5.1%) TIAs, 2 major bleeding events (on aspirin) and 3 minor bleeding events with the ICM-guided strategy. The projected total 3-year costs were $12,535 for the ICM-guided strategy versus $13,340 for continuous anticoagulation. Projected QALYs were 2.45 for both groups. Based on a pilot study, a strategy of ICM-guided anticoagulation with NOACs may be cost-saving relative to expected outcomes with continuous anticoagulation, with similar quality-adjusted survival. This strategy could be attractive from a health economic perspective if shown to be safe and effective in a rigorous clinical trial. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

2016-10-01

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

Cost Effectiveness of Implantable Cardiac Monitor-Guided Intermittent Anticoagulation for Atrial Fibrillation: An Analysis of the REACT.COM Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Steinhaus, Daniel A; Zimetbaum, Peter J; Passman, Rod S; Leong-Sit, Peter; Reynolds, Matthew R.

2016-01-01

Introduction Anticoagulation guidelines for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) disregard AF burden. A strategy of targeted anticoagulation with novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) based on continuous rhythm assessment with an implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) has recently been explored. We evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of this strategy versus projected outcomes with continuous anticoagulation. Methods and Results We developed a Markov model using data from the Rhythm Evaluation for AntiCoagulaTion With COntinuous Monitoring (REACT.COM) pilot study (N=59) and prior NOAC trials to calculate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with ICM-guided intermittent anticoagulation for AF vs. standard care over a 3-year time horizon. Health state utilities were estimated from the pilot study population using the SF-12. Costs were based on current Medicare reimbursement. Over 14±4 months of follow-up 18 of 59 patients had 35 AF episodes. The ICM-guided strategy resulted in a 94% reduction in anticoagulant use relative to continuous treatment. There were no strokes, 3 (5.1%) TIAs, 2 major bleeding events (on aspirin) and 3 minor bleeding events with the ICM-guided strategy. The projected total 3-year costs were $12,535 for the ICM-guided strategy vs. $13,340 for continuous anticoagulation. Projected QALYs were 2.45 for both groups. Conclusion Based on a pilot study, a strategy of ICM-guided anticoagulation with NOACs may be cost-saving relative to expected outcomes with continuous anticoagulation, with similar quality-adjusted survival. This strategy could be attractive from a health economic perspective if shown to be safe and effective in a rigorous clinical trial. PMID:27571718

Are you ready? Crisis leadership in a hyper-VUCA environment.

PubMed

Alkhaldi, Khaldoon H; Austin, Meredith L; Cura, Boris A; Dantzler, Darrell; Holland, Leslie; Maples, David L; Quarrelles, Jamie C; Weinkle, Robert K; Marcus, Leonard J

2017-01-01

The current hyper-volatile, -uncertain, -complex, and -ambiguous (VUCA) threat environment demands a more cohesive support structure for crisis leaders who may be faced with crises of increasing magnitude and frequency and, in some instances, multiple crisis events simultaneously. The project team investigates the perceptions of crisis leaders regarding establishing a crisis leader advisor position for crisis leaders to benefit from their experience while prosecuting crisis response activities. The team linked hyper-VUCA crises, crisis response frameworks, meta-leadership, crisis leader attributes, and advisor attributes. The overall goal of the project is to increase the ability of the crisis leaders to more effectively and efficiently navigate crisis events resulting in more efficient and effective response and recovery. Three research questions were developed to assess the following: thoughts of integrating a crisis leader advisor position; development of a crisis leader advisor certification program; and attributes of crisis leader advisors. A qualitative research methodology using a phenomenological approach was employed. Forty-one participants were purposefully selected and administered a short, online survey consisting of 11 questions. Data were analyzed using percentage analysis, weighted sums, and inductive thematic analysis. The project team found an overwhelming support for the crisis leader advisor position and the crisis leader advisor certification program. Additionally, experience and trustworthiness ranked among the top sought after attributes of a crisis leader advisor. The team recommendations included (1) implement a crisis leaders advisor guide/framework; (2) create a formal crisis leader advisor position in national incident management system; (3) implement a crisis leader advisor certification framework; (4) benchmark established advisor programs; and (5) implement a framework to match leaders and advisors.

Are you ready? Crisis leadership in a hyper-VUCA environment.

PubMed

Alkhaldi, Khaldoon H; Austin, Meredith L; Cura, Boris A; Dantzler, Darrell; Holland, Leslie; Maples, David L; Quarrelles, Jamie C; Weinkle, Robert K; Marcus, Leonard J

The current hyper-volatile, -uncertain, -complex, and -ambiguous (VUCA) threat environment demands a more cohesive support structure for crisis leaders who may be faced with crises of increasing magnitude and frequency and, in some instances, multiple crisis events simultaneously. The project team investigates the perceptions of crisis leaders regarding establishing a crisis leader advisor position for crisis leaders to benefit from their experience while prosecuting crisis response activities. The team linked hyper-VUCA crises, crisis response frameworks, meta-leadership, crisis leader attributes, and advisor attributes. The overall goal of the project is to increase the ability of the crisis leaders to more effectively and efficiently navigate crisis events resulting in more efficient and effective response and recovery. Three research questions were developed to assess the following: thoughts of integrating a crisis leader advisor position; development of a crisis leader advisor certification program; and attributes of crisis leader advisors. A qualitative research methodology using a phenomenological approach was employed. Forty-one participants were purposefully selected and administered a short, on-line survey consisting of 11 questions. Data were analyzed using percentage analysis, weighted sums, and inductive thematic analysis. The project team found an overwhelming support for the crisis leader advisor position and the crisis leader advisor certification program. Additionally, experience and trustworthiness ranked among the top sought after attributes of a crisis leader advisor. The team recommendations included (1) implement a crisis leaders advisor guide/framework; (2) create a formal crisis leader advisor position in national incident management system; (3) implement a crisis leader advisor certification framework; (4) benchmark established advisor programs; and (5) implement a framework to match leaders and advisors.

Are you ready? Crisis leadership in a hyper-VUCA environment.

PubMed

Alkhaldi, Khaldoon H; Austin, Meredith L; Cura, Boris A; Dantzler, Darrell; Holland, Leslie; Maples, David L; Quarrelles, Jamie C; Weinkle, Robert K; Marcus, Leonard J

The current hyper-volatile, -uncertain, -complex, and -ambiguous (VUCA) threat environment demands a more cohesive support structure for crisis leaders who may be faced with crises of increasing magnitude and frequency and, in some instances, multiple crisis events simultaneously. The project team investigates the perceptions of crisis leaders regarding establishing a crisis leader advisor position for crisis leaders to benefit from their experience while prosecuting crisis response activities. The team linked hyper-VUCA crises, crisis response frameworks, meta-leadership, crisis leader attributes, and advisor attributes. The overall goal of the project is to increase the ability of the crisis leaders to more effectively and efficiently navigate crisis events resulting in more efficient and effective response and recovery. Three research questions were developed to assess the following: thoughts of integrating a crisis leader advisor position; development of a crisis leader advisor certification program; and attributes of crisis leader advisors. A qualitative research methodology using a phenomenological approach was employed. Forty-one participants were purposefully selected and administered a short, on-line survey consisting of 11 questions. Data were analyzed using percentage analysis,weighted sums, and inductive thematic analysis. The project team found an overwhelming support for the crisis leader advisor position and the crisis leader advisor certification program. Additionally, experience and trustworthiness ranked among the top sought after attributes of a crisis leader advisor. The team recommendations included (1) implement a crisis leaders advisor guide/framework; (2) create a formal crisis leader advisor position in national incident management system; (3) implement a crisis leader advisor certification framework; (4) benchmark established advisor programs; and (5) implement a framework to match leaders and advisors.

Dark matter directionality revisited with a high pressure xenon gas detector

DOE PAGES

Mohlabeng, Gopolang; Kong, Kyoungchul; Li, Jin; ...

2015-07-20

An observation of the anisotropy of dark matter interactions in a direction-sensitive detector would provide decisive evidence for the discovery of galactic dark matter. Directional information would also provide a crucial input to understanding its distribution in the local Universe. Most of the existing directional dark matter detectors utilize particle tracking methods in a low-pressure gas time projection chamber. These low pressure detectors require excessively large volumes in order to be competitive in the search for physics beyond the current limit. In order to avoid these volume limitations, we consider a novel proposal, which exploits a columnar recombination effect inmore » a high-pressure gas time projection chamber. The ratio of scintillation to ionization signals observed in the detector carries the angular information of the particle interactions. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of a future directional detector focused on the proposed high-pressure Xenon gas time projection chamber. We study the prospect of detecting an anisotropy in the dark matter velocity distribution. We find that tens of events are needed to exclude an isotropic distribution of dark matter interactions at 95% confidence level in the most optimistic case with head-to-tail information. However, one needs at least 10-20 times more events without head-to-tail information for light dark matter below ~50 GeV. For an intermediate mass range, we find it challenging to observe an anisotropy of the dark matter distribution. Our results also show that the directional information significantly improves precision measurements of dark matter mass and the elastic scattering cross section for a heavy dark matter.« less

Events Management Education through CD-ROM Simulation at Victoria University of Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Marcia; And Others

There has been a rapid growth in the events industry in Victoria and Australia over the past five years with an increase in large scale events--resulting in substantive economic impact. The growth in events in Australia is projected to continue to beyond 2001. The Department of Management at Victoria University of Technology (VU) received a…

Investigation of Back-Projection Uncertainties with M6 Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, W.; Shearer, P. M.

2017-12-01

We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P-wave back-projection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically-estimated time shifts based on aligning P-wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-7 earthquakes over a ten-year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross-correlation of their initial P-wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare back-projection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections for other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well sub-events can be resolved with back-projection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that back-projection is generally very robust and that sub-event location errors average about 20 km across the entire study region ( 700 km). The back-projection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine back-projection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

Cloning, Stem Cells, and the Current National Debate: Incorporating Ethics into a Large Introductory Biology Course

PubMed Central

2002-01-01

Discussing the ethical issues involved in topics such as cloning and stem cell research in a large introductory biology course is often difficult. Teachers may be wary of presenting material biased by personal beliefs, and students often feel inhibited speaking about moral issues in a large group. Yet, to ignore what is happening “out there” beyond the textbooks and lab work is to do a disservice to students. This essay describes a semester-long project in which upperclass students presented some of the most complex and controversial ideas imaginable to introductory students by staging a mock debate and acting as members of the then newly appointed President's Council on Bioethics. Because the upperclass students were presenting the ideas of real people who play an important role in shaping national policy, no student's personal beliefs were put on the line, and many ideas were articulated. The introductory audience could accept or reject what they were hearing and learn information important for making up their own minds on these issues. This project is presented as an example of how current events can be used to put basic cell biology into context and of how exciting it can be when students teach students. PMID:12669102

Executive summary and guide to final report: Advisory committee on human radiation experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-01-01

On January 15, 1994, President Clinton appointed the Advisory Committee on Human Radiation Experiments to investigate reports of possibly unethical experiments funded by the government decades ago. The Committee was directed to uncover the history of human radiation experiments during the period 1944 through 1974 and to examine cases in which the government had intentionally released radiation into the environment for research purposes. The Committee was further charged with identifying the ethical and scientific standards for evaluating these events, and with making recommendations to ensure that whatever wrongdoing may have ocurred in the past cannot be repeated. The Committee undertookmore » three projects: A review of how each agency of the federal government that currently conducts or funds research involving human subjects regulates this activity or oversees it; An examination of the documents and consent forms of research projects that are today sponsored by the federal government in order to develop insight into the current status of protections for the rights and interests of human subjects; and, Interviews of nearly 1,900 patients receiving out-patient medical care in private hospitals and federal facilities throughout the country. This booklet provides an overview of the Final Report, summarizing each chapter.« less

76 FR 66043 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-25

... concerning its proposed renewal of Day of Service Project Promotion Tool. Anyone organizing a volunteer event will be able to register their projects, including: national service projects, corporations, volunteer..., electronic, mechanical, or other technological collection techniques or other forms of information technology...

Fair for All: Schools Celebrate Equity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarvis, Josephine M.

Eleven educational equity events and programs undertaken by Quincy (Massachusetts) public schools involved in Project Inter-Action are described in this booklet. Guidelines for planning such events are included. The booklet may be used to design equity events, to provide ideas for making curriculum more equitable, or to stimulate action. The…

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

2017-12-01

n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios. Preliminary findings indicate that future heat waves, and severe heat waves are expected to become more frequent and arrive earlier in some regions. References Basha, G., et al., (2017), Nature Scientific Reports, 7, 2987. Mitchell, D., et al., (2017), HAPPI:,Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571-583. Wehner, M. F., et al.,: (2016), Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 97, S81-S86.

Modeling of single event transients with dual double-exponential current sources: Implications for logic cell characterization

DOE PAGES

Black, Dolores Archuleta; Robinson, William H.; Wilcox, Ian Zachary; ...

2015-08-07

Single event effects (SEE) are a reliability concern for modern microelectronics. Bit corruptions can be caused by single event upsets (SEUs) in the storage cells or by sampling single event transients (SETs) from a logic path. Likewise, an accurate prediction of soft error susceptibility from SETs requires good models to convert collected charge into compact descriptions of the current injection process. This paper describes a simple, yet effective, method to model the current waveform resulting from a charge collection event for SET circuit simulations. The model uses two double-exponential current sources in parallel, and the results illustrate why a conventionalmore » model based on one double-exponential source can be incomplete. Furthermore, a small set of logic cells with varying input conditions, drive strength, and output loading are simulated to extract the parameters for the dual double-exponential current sources. As a result, the parameters are based upon both the node capacitance and the restoring current (i.e., drive strength) of the logic cell.« less

An unbalanced portfolio.

PubMed

Federsel, Hans-Jurgen

2009-06-01

An excellent demonstration of how meaningful and valuable conferences devoted to the topic of project and portfolio management in the pharmaceutical industry can be, was given at an event organized in Barcelona, September 2008. Thus, over this 2-day meeting the delegates were updated on the state of the art in this wide-reaching area from speakers representing an array of companies; from small, relatively new players, via mid-sized, to established large and big pharmas. One common theme that emerged was the importance of assessing the value of drug projects as correctly as possible, especially under the current financial climate and the many challenges facing the industry. Furthermore, experiences from constructing portfolios with the aim to minimize risk and maximize return on investment were shared alongside mathematical approaches to obtain the data required for this purpose and accounts of the pleasures and hardships working in a global context and in partnership constellations. Copyright 2009 Prous Science, S.A.U. or its licensors. All rights reserved.

Using Deep Learning Algorithm to Enhance Image-review Software for Surveillance Cameras

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cui, Yonggang; Thomas, Maikael A.

We propose the development of proven deep learning algorithms to flag objects and events of interest in Next Generation Surveillance System (NGSS) surveillance to make IAEA image review more efficient. Video surveillance is one of the core monitoring technologies used by the IAEA Department of Safeguards when implementing safeguards at nuclear facilities worldwide. The current image review software GARS has limited automated functions, such as scene-change detection, black image detection and missing scene analysis, but struggles with highly cluttered backgrounds. A cutting-edge algorithm to be developed in this project will enable efficient and effective searches in images and video streamsmore » by identifying and tracking safeguards relevant objects and detect anomalies in their vicinity. In this project, we will develop the algorithm, test it with the IAEA surveillance cameras and data sets collected at simulated nuclear facilities at BNL and SNL, and implement it in a software program for potential integration into the IAEA’s IRAP (Integrated Review and Analysis Program).« less

MeerLICHT and BlackGEM: custom-built telescopes to detect faint optical transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloemen, Steven; Groot, Paul; Woudt, Patrick; Klein Wolt, Marc; McBride, Vanessa; Nelemans, Gijs; Körding, Elmar; Pretorius, Margaretha L.; Roelfsema, Ronald; Bettonvil, Felix; Balster, Harry; Bakker, Roy; Dolron, Peter; van Elteren, Arjen; Elswijk, Eddy; Engels, Arno; Fender, Rob; Fokker, Marc; de Haan, Menno; Hagoort, Klaas; de Hoog, Jasper; ter Horst, Rik; van der Kevie, Giel; Kozłowski, Stanisław; Kragt, Jan; Lech, Grzegorz; Le Poole, Rudolf; Lesman, Dirk; Morren, Johan; Navarro, Ramon; Paalberends, Willem-Jelle; Paterson, Kerry; Pawłaszek, Rafal; Pessemier, Wim; Raskin, Gert; Rutten, Harrie; Scheers, Bart; Schuil, Menno; Sybilski, Piotr W.

2016-07-01

We present the MeerLICHT and BlackGEM telescopes, which are wide-field optical telescopes that are currently being built to study transient phenomena, gravitational wave counterparts and variable stars. The telescopes have 65 cm primary mirrors and a 2.7 square degree field-of-view. The MeerLICHT and BlackGEM projects have different science goals, but will use identical telescopes. The first telescope, MeerLICHT, will be commissioned at Sutherland (South Africa) in the first quarter of 2017. It will co-point with MeerKAT to collect optical data commensurate with the radio observations. After careful analysis of MeerLICHT's performance, three telescopes of the same type will be commissioned in La Silla (Chile) in 2018 to form phase I of the BlackGEM array. BlackGEM aims at detecting and characterizing optical counterparts of gravitational wave events detected by Advanced LIGO and Virgo. In this contribution we present an overview of the science goals, the design and the status of the two projects.

Estimating the Impacts of Direct Load Control Programs Using GridPIQ, a Web-Based Screening Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pal, Seemita; Thayer, Brandon L.; Barrett, Emily L.

In direct load control (DLC) programs, utilities can curtail the demand of participating loads to contractually agreed-upon levels during periods of critical peak load, thereby reducing stress on the system, generation cost, and required transmission and generation capacity. Participating customers receive financial incentives. The impacts of implementing DLC programs extend well beyond peak shaving. There may be a shift of load proportional to the interrupted load to the times before or after a DLC event, and different load shifts have different consequences. Tools that can quantify the impacts of such programs on load curves, peak demand, emissions, and fossil fuelmore » costs are currently lacking. The Grid Project Impact Quantification (GridPIQ) screening tool includes a Direct Load Control module, which takes into account project-specific inputs as well as the larger system context in order to quantify the impacts of a given DLC program. This allows users (utilities, researchers, etc.) to test and compare different program specifications and their impacts.« less

Assessing Induced Seismicity Risk at CO 2 Storage Projects: Recent Progress and Remaining Challenges

DOE PAGES

White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

2016-04-13

It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes—from microseismicity to magnitude 5+ events—by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. This paper reviews recent lessons learned regarding induced seismicity at carbon storage sites. While similar to other subsurface injection practices, CO 2 injection has distinctive features that should be included in a discussion of its seismic hazard. Induced events have been observed at CO 2 injection projects, though to date it has not been a major operational issue. Nevertheless, the hazard exists and experience with this issue will likely grow as new storage operations come online.more » This review paper focuses on specific technical difficulties that can limit the effectiveness of current risk assessment and risk management approaches, and highlights recent research aimed at overcoming them. Finally, these challenges form the heart of the induced seismicity problem, and novel solutions to them will advance our ability to responsibly deploy large-scale CO 2 storage.« less

The morphological change of supporting cells in the olfactory epithelium after bulbectomy.

PubMed

Makino, Nobuko; Ookawara, Shigeo; Katoh, Kazuo; Ohta, Yasushi; Ichikawa, Masumi; Ichimura, Keiichi

2009-02-01

Transmission electron microscopy was used to study the responses of the supporting cells of the olfactory epithelium at 1-5 days after surgical ablation of the olfactory bulb (bulbectomy). In intact olfactory epithelium, lamellar smooth endoplasmic reticulum and rod-shaped mitochondria were distinctly observed in the supporting cells. On the first day after bulbectomy, bending of the microvilli and an increase in the smooth endoplasmic reticulum were observed. Cristae of the mitochondria became obscure, and the density of the mitochondrial matrix decreased. On the second day after bulbectomy, the number of microvilli decreased, broad cytoplasmic projections that contained cytoplasmic organelles protruded into the luminal side, and the mitochondria were swollen. On the fifth day after bulbectomy, microvilli seemed to be normal and some cells had large cytoplasmic projections that protruded toward the lumen of the nasal cavity. Within the cytoplasmic projections of the supporting cells, a large lamellar and reticular-shaped smooth endoplasmic reticulum was evident. Mitochondria exhibited almost normal morphology. The current findings demonstrate that morphological changes occur in the supporting cells after bulbectomy. This new evidence hypothesizes that these changes represent events that contribute to the regeneration of the olfactory epithelium after bulbectomy.