Dynamics of Ring Current and Electric Fields in the Inner Magnetosphere During Disturbed Periods: CRCM-BATS-R-US Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M.-C.; Pulkkinen, A.; Kuznetsova, M.; Moore, T. E.; Glocer, A.; Brandt, P. C.; Toth, G.; Rastaetter, L.

2010-01-01

We present simulation results from a one-way coupled global MHD model (Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US) and kinetic ring current models (Comprehensive Ring Current Model, CRCM, and Fok Ring Current, FokRC). The BATS-R-US provides the CRCM/FokRC with magnetic field information and plasma density/temperature at the polar CRCM/FokRC boundary. The CRCM uses an electric potential from the BATS-R-US ionospheric solver at the polar CRCM boundary in order to calculate the electric field pattern consistent with the CRCM pressure distribution. The FokRC electric field potential is taken from BATS-R-US ionospheric solver everywhere in the modeled region, and the effect of Region II currents is neglected. We show that for an idealized case with southward-northward-southward Bz IMF turning, CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces well known features of inner magnetosphere electrodynamics: strong/weak convection under the southward/northward Bz; electric field shielding/overshielding/penetration effects; an injection during the substorm development; Subauroral Ion Drift or Polarization Jet (SAID/PJ) signature in the dusk sector. Furthermore, we find for the idealized case that SAID/PJ forms during the substorm growth phase, and that substorm injection has its own structure of field-aligned currents which resembles a substorm current wedge. For an actual event (12 August 2000 storm), we calculate ENA emissions and compare with Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration/High Energy Neutral Atom data. The CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces both the global morphology of ring current and the fine structure of ring current injection. The FokRC-BATS-R-US shows the effect of a realistic description of Region II currents in ring current-MHD coupled models.

APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL LANDFILL METHANE EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The report is an overview of available country-specific data and modeling approaches for estimating global landfill methane. Current estimates of global landfill methane indicate that landfills account for between 4 and 15% of the global methane budget. The report describes an ap...

A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Running, Steven W.

1992-01-01

A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, Jason; Hyder, Patrick; Ashworth, Mike; Harle, James; Hewitt, Helene T.; Liu, Hedong; New, Adrian L.; Pickles, Stephen; Porter, Andrew; Popova, Ekaterina; Icarus Allen, J.; Siddorn, John; Wood, Richard

2017-02-01

Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ˜ 8 % of regions < 500 m deep, but this increases to ˜ 70 % for a 1/72° model, so resolving scales globally requires substantially finer resolution than the current state of the art.We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ɛ vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones.To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of multiscale modelling options (e.g. finite element, finite volume or a two-way nesting approach), we consider a simple scale analysis and a conceptual grid refining approach. We put this analysis in the context of evolving computer systems, discussing model turnaround time, scalability and resource costs. Using a simple cost model compared to a reference configuration (taken to be a 1/4° global model in 2011) and the increasing performance of the UK Research Councils' computer facility, we estimate an unstructured mesh multiscale approach, resolving process scales down to 1.5 km, would use a comparable share of the computer resource by 2021, the two-way nested multiscale approach by 2022, and a 1/72° global model by 2026. However, we also note that a 1/12° global model would not have a comparable computational cost to a 1° global model in 2017 until 2027. Hence, we conclude that for computationally expensive models (e.g. for oceanographic research or operational oceanography), resolving scales to ˜ 1.5 km would be routinely practical in about a decade given substantial effort on numerical and computational development. For complex Earth system models, this extends to about 2 decades, suggesting the focus here needs to be on improved process parameterisation to meet these challenges.

System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE), part 1 : model description and inventory results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-07-01

In early 2001, the US Federal Aviation Administration embarked on a multi-year effort to develop a new computer model, the System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE). Currently at Version 1.5, the basic use of the model has centered on t...

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. I - The lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hays, P. B.; Roble, R. G.

1979-01-01

A quasi-steady model of global lower atmospheric electricity is presented. The model considers thunderstorms as dipole electric generators that can be randomly distributed in various regions and that are the only source of atmospheric electricity and includes the effects of orography and electrical coupling along geomagnetic field lines in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The model is used to calculate the global distribution of electric potential and current for model conductivities and assumed spatial distributions of thunderstorms. Results indicate that large positive electric potentials are generated over thunderstorms and penetrate to ionospheric heights and into the conjugate hemisphere along magnetic field lines. The perturbation of the calculated electric potential and current distributions during solar flares and subsequent Forbush decreases is discussed, and future measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters and modifications of the model which would improve the agreement between calculations and measurements are suggested.

Electrical description of N2 capacitively coupled plasmas with the global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Ming-Lu; Lu, Yi-Jia; Cheng, Jia; Ji, Lin-Hong; Engineering Design Team

2016-10-01

N2 discharges in a commercial capacitively coupled plasma reactor are modelled by a combination of an equivalent circuit and the global model, for a range of gas pressure at 1 4 Torr. The ohmic and inductive plasma bulk and the capacitive sheath are represented as LCR elements, with electrical characteristics determined by plasma parameters. The electron density and electron temperature are obtained from the global model in which a Maxwellian electron distribution is assumed. Voltages and currents are recorded by a VI probe installed after the match network. Using the measured voltage as an input, the current flowing through the discharge volume is calculated from the electrical model and shows excellent agreement with the measurements. The experimentally verified electrical model provides a simple and accurate description for the relationship between the external electrical parameters and the plasma properties, which can serve as a guideline for process window planning in industrial applications.

On Verifying Currents and Other Features in the Hawaiian Islands Region Using Fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Compared to Global Ocean Model and Ocean Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jessen, P. G.; Chen, S.

2014-12-01

This poster introduces and evaluates features concerning the Hawaii, USA region using the U.S. Navy's fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-OS™) coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It also outlines some challenges in verifying ocean currents in the open ocean. The system is evaluated using in situ ocean data and initial forcing fields from the operational global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Verification shows difficulties in modelling downstream currents off the Hawaiian islands (Hawaii's wake). Comparing HYCOM to NCOM current fields show some displacement of small features such as eddies. Generally, there is fair agreement from HYCOM to NCOM in salinity and temperature fields. There is good agreement in SSH fields.

Magnetosphere Modeling: From Cartoons to Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

Over the last half a century physics-based global computer simulations became a bridge between experiment and basic theory and now it represents the "third pillar" of geospace research. Today, many of our scientific publications utilize large-scale simulations to interpret observations, test new ideas, plan campaigns, or design new instruments. Realistic simulations of the complex Sun-Earth system have been made possible by the dramatically increased power of both computing hardware and numerical algorithms. Early magnetosphere models were based on simple E&M concepts (like the Chapman-Ferraro cavity) and hydrodynamic analogies (bow shock). At the beginning of the space age current system models were developed culminating in the sophisticated Tsyganenko-type description of the magnetic configuration. The first 3D MHD simulations of the magnetosphere were published in the early 1980s. A decade later there were several competing global models that were able to reproduce many fundamental properties of the magnetosphere. The leading models included the impact of the ionosphere by using a height-integrated electric potential description. Dynamic coupling of global and regional models started in the early 2000s by integrating a ring current and a global magnetosphere model. It has been recognized for quite some time that plasma kinetic effects play an important role. Presently, global hybrid simulations of the dynamic magnetosphere are expected to be possible on exascale supercomputers, while fully kinetic simulations with realistic mass ratios are still decades away. In the 2010s several groups started to experiment with PIC simulations embedded in large-scale 3D MHD models. Presently this integrated MHD-PIC approach is at the forefront of magnetosphere simulations and this technique is expected to lead to some important advances in our understanding of magnetosheric physics. This talk will review the evolution of magnetosphere modeling from cartoons to current systems, to global MHD to MHD-PIC and discuss the role of state-of-the-art models in forecasting space weather.

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

2005-01-01

The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

Production of NOx by Lightning and its Effects on Atmospheric Chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, Kenneth E.

2009-01-01

Production of NO(x) by lightning remains the NO(x) source with the greatest uncertainty. Current estimates of the global source strength range over a factor of four (from 2 to 8 TgN/year). Ongoing efforts to reduce this uncertainty through field programs, cloud-resolved modeling, global modeling, and satellite data analysis will be described in this seminar. Representation of the lightning source in global or regional chemical transport models requires three types of information: the distribution of lightning flashes as a function of time and space, the production of NO(x) per flash, and the effective vertical distribution of the lightning-injected NO(x). Methods of specifying these items in a model will be discussed. For example, the current method of specifying flash rates in NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model will be discussed, as well as work underway in developing algorithms for use in the regional models CMAQ and WRF-Chem. A number of methods have been employed to estimate either production per lightning flash or the production per unit flash length. Such estimates derived from cloud-resolved chemistry simulations and from satellite NO2 retrievals will be presented as well as the methodologies employed. Cloud-resolved model output has also been used in developing vertical profiles of lightning NO(x) for use in global models. Effects of lightning NO(x) on O3 and HO(x) distributions will be illustrated regionally and globally.

Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacDonald, Alison Marguerite

1995-01-01

Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

The changing global carbon cycle: Linking plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapin, F. S.; McFarland, J.; McGuire, David A.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Ruess, Roger W.; Kielland, K.

2009-01-01

Synthesis. Current climate systems models that include only NPP and HR are inadequate under conditions of rapid change. Many of the recent advances in biogeochemical understanding are sufficiently mature to substantially improve representation of ecosystem C dynamics in these models.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Global Core Plasma Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, Dennis L.; Craven, Paul D.; Comfort, Richard H.

1999-01-01

Over 40 years of ground and spacecraft plasmaspheric measurements have resulted in many statistical descriptions of plasmaspheric properties. In some cases, these properties have been represented as analytical descriptions that are valid for specific regions or conditions. For the most part, what has not been done is to extend regional empirical descriptions or models to the plasmasphere as a whole. In contrast, many related investigations depend on the use of representative plasmaspheric conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. Wave propagation, involving the transport of energy through the magnetosphere, is strongly affected by thermal plasma density and its composition. Ring current collisional and wave particle losses also strongly depend on these quantities. Plasmaspheric also plays a secondary role in influencing radio signals from the Global Positioning System satellites. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is an attempt to assimilate previous empirical evidence and regional models for plasmaspheric density into a continuous, smooth model of thermal plasma density in the inner magnetosphere. In that spirit, the International Reference Ionosphere is currently used to complete the low altitude description of density and composition in the model. The models and measurements on which the GCPM is currently based and its relationship to IRI will be discussed.

Observations & modeling of solar-wind/magnetospheric interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoilijoki, Sanni; Von Alfthan, Sebastian; Pfau-Kempf, Yann; Palmroth, Minna; Ganse, Urs

2016-07-01

The majority of the global magnetospheric dynamics is driven by magnetic reconnection, indicating the need to understand and predict reconnection processes and their global consequences. So far, global magnetospheric dynamics has been simulated using mainly magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, which are approximate but fast enough to be executed in real time or near-real time. Due to their fast computation times, MHD models are currently the only possible frameworks for space weather predictions. However, in MHD models reconnection is not treated kinetically. In this presentation we will compare the results from global kinetic (hybrid-Vlasov) and global MHD simulations. Both simulations are compared with in-situ measurements. We will show that the kinetic processes at the bow shock, in the magnetosheath and at the magnetopause affect global dynamics even during steady solar wind conditions. Foreshock processes cause an asymmetry in the magnetosheath plasma, indicating that the plasma entering the magnetosphere is not symmetrical on different sides of the magnetosphere. Behind the bow shock in the magnetosheath kinetic wave modes appear. Some of these waves propagate to the magnetopause and have an effect on the magnetopause reconnection. Therefore we find that kinetic phenomena have a significant role in the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. While kinetic models cannot be executed in real time currently, they could be used to extract heuristics to be added in the faster MHD models.

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

2014-02-01

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Current problems in applied mathematics and mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, A. S.

Papers are presented on mathematical modeling noting applications to such fields as geophysics, chemistry, atmospheric optics, and immunology. Attention is also given to models of ocean current fluxes, atmospheric and marine interactions, and atmospheric pollution. The articles include studies of catalytic reactors, models of global climate phenomena, and computer-assisted atmospheric models.

Anomalous Upwelling in Nan Wan: July 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

Head Ruth H. Preller 7300 Security, Code 1226 Office of Couns sl.Code 1008.3 ADOR/Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 Public Affairs (Unclassified...State University (OSU) tidal forcing drives the tidal currents. A global weather forecast model (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction...system derives its open ocean boundary conditions from NRL global NCOM (Navy Co- astal Ocean Model) (Rhodes et al. 2002) that operates daily

Terminator field-aligned current system: A new finding from model-assimilated data set (MADS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Sojka, J. J.; Gardner, L. C.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.

2013-12-01

Physics-based data assimilation models have been recognized by the space science community as the most accurate approach to specify and forecast the space weather of the solar-terrestrial environment. The model-assimilated data sets (MADS) produced by these models constitute an internally consistent time series of global three-dimensional fields whose accuracy can be estimated. Because of its internal consistency of physics and completeness of descriptions on the status of global systems, the MADS has also been a powerful tool to identify the systematic errors in measurements, reveal the missing physics in physical models, and discover the important dynamical physical processes that are inadequately observed or missed by measurements due to observational limitations. In the past years, we developed a data assimilation model for the high-latitude ionospheric plasma dynamics and electrodynamics. With a set of physical models, an ensemble Kalman filter, and the ingestion of data from multiple observations, the data assimilation model can produce a self-consistent time-series of the complete descriptions of the global high-latitude ionosphere, which includes the convection electric field, horizontal and field-aligned currents, conductivity, as well as 3-D plasma densities and temperatures, In this presentation, we will show a new field-aligned current system discovered from the analysis of the MADS produced by our data assimilation model. This new current system appears and develops near the ionospheric terminator. The dynamical features of this current system will be described and its connection to the active role of the ionosphere in the M-I coupling will be discussed.

Comparison of predictive estimates of high-latitude electrodynamics with observations of global-scale Birkeland currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Brian J.; Korth, Haje; Welling, Daniel T.; Merkin, Viacheslav G.; Wiltberger, Michael J.; Raeder, Joachim; Barnes, Robin J.; Waters, Colin L.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Rastaetter, Lutz

2017-02-01

Two of the geomagnetic storms for the Space Weather Prediction Center Geospace Environment Modeling challenge occurred after data were first acquired by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). We compare Birkeland currents from AMPERE with predictions from four models for the 4-5 April 2010 and 5-6 August 2011 storms. The four models are the Weimer (2005b) field-aligned current statistical model, the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, the Open Global Geospace Circulation Model MHD simulation, and the Space Weather Modeling Framework MHD simulation. The MHD simulations were run as described in Pulkkinen et al. (2013) and the results obtained from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. The total radial Birkeland current, ITotal, and the distribution of radial current density, Jr, for all models are compared with AMPERE results. While the total currents are well correlated, the quantitative agreement varies considerably. The Jr distributions reveal discrepancies between the models and observations related to the latitude distribution, morphologies, and lack of nightside current systems in the models. The results motivate enhancing the simulations first by increasing the simulation resolution and then by examining the relative merits of implementing more sophisticated ionospheric conductance models, including ionospheric outflows or other omitted physical processes. Some aspects of the system, including substorm timing and location, may remain challenging to simulate, implying a continuing need for real-time specification.

Magnetosphere dynamics during the 14 November 2012 storm inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US-CRCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzulukova, Natalia; Goldstein, Jerry; Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Valek, Phil; McComas, David; Korth, Haje; Anderson, Brian

2018-01-01

During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases (dropouts) in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US-CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensification of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open-closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M-I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global model results enable the reconstruction of a more complete system-level picture of the dropout events and provides insight into M-I coupling aspects that have not previously been investigated.

Magnetosphere dynamics during the 14 November 2012 storm inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US–CRCM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buzulukova, Natalia; Goldstein, Jerry; Fok, Mei-Ching

During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases ("dropouts") in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere–ionosphere (M–I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US–CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensificationmore » of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open–closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M–I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global model results enable the reconstruction of a more complete system-level picture of the dropout events and provides insight into M–I coupling aspects that have not previously been investigated.« less

Magnetosphere Dynamics During the 14 November 2012 Storm Inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US-CRCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buzulukova, Natalia; Goldstein, Jerry; Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Valek, Phil; McComas, David; Korth, Haje; Anderson, Brian

2018-01-01

During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases ('dropouts') in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere- ionosphere (M-I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US-CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensification of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open-closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M-I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global model results enable the reconstruction of a more complete system-level picture of the dropout events and provides insight into M-I coupling aspects that have not previously been investigated.

Magnetosphere dynamics during the 14 November 2012 storm inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US–CRCM

DOE PAGES

Buzulukova, Natalia; Goldstein, Jerry; Fok, Mei-Ching; ...

2018-01-25

During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases ("dropouts") in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere–ionosphere (M–I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US–CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensificationmore » of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open–closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M–I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global model results enable the reconstruction of a more complete system-level picture of the dropout events and provides insight into M–I coupling aspects that have not previously been investigated.« less

NWS Marine Forecast Areas

Science.gov Websites

Currents Global Ocean Model Sea Surface Temperatures Gulf Stream ASCII Data Gulf Stream Comparison Gridded ASCAT Scatterometer Winds Lightning Strike Density Satellite Imagery Ocean Global Ocean Model , 2017 19:10:57 UTC Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information

Neglected chronic disease: The WHO framework on non-communicable diseases and implications for the global poor.

PubMed

Nulu, Shanti

2017-04-01

The current global framework on noncommunicable disease (NCD), as exemplified by the WHO Action Plan of 2012, neglects the needs of the global poor. The current framework is rooted in an outdated pseudo-evolutionary theory of epidemiologic transition, which weds NCDs to modernity, and relies on global aggregate data. It is oriented around a simplistic causal model of behaviour, risk and disease, which implicitly locates 'risk' within individuals, conveniently drawing attention away from important global drivers of the NCD epidemic. In fact, the epidemiologic realities of the bottom billion reveal a burden of neglected chronic diseases that are associated with 'alternative' environmental and infectious risks that are largely structurally determined. In addition, the vertical orientation of the framework fails to centralise health systems and delivery issues that are essential to chronic disease prevention and treatment. A new framework oriented around a global health equity perspective would be able to correct some of the failures of the current model by bringing the needs of the global poor to the forefront, and centralising health systems and delivery. In addition, core social science concepts such as Bordieu's habitus may be useful to re-conceptualising strategies that may address both behavioural and structural determinants of health.

Ring Current Ion Coupling with Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov. G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A new ring current global model has been developed that couples the system of two kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current (RC) ion dynamic, and another equation describes wave evolution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves (EMIC). The coupled model is able to simulate, for the first time self-consistently calculated RC ion kinetic and evolution of EMIC waves that propagate along geomagnetic field lines and reflect from the ionosphere. Ionospheric properties affect the reflection index through the integral Pedersen and Hall conductivities. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions, intensities of EMIC global RC energy balance, and some other parameters will be studied in detail for the selected geomagnetic storms.

Global Weather Prediction and High-End Computing at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Atlas, Robert; Yeh, Kao-San

2003-01-01

We demonstrate current capabilities of the NASA finite-volume General Circulation Model an high-resolution global weather prediction, and discuss its development path in the foreseeable future. This model can be regarded as a prototype of a future NASA Earth modeling system intended to unify development activities cutting across various disciplines within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise.

Forest product trade impacts of an invasive species: modeling structure and intervention trade-offs

Treesearch

Jeffrey Prestemon; Shushuai Zhu; James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Ruhong Li

2006-01-01

Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Siberian coniferous logs, threaten domestic forests and product markers and could have global market consequences. We simulate, using the Global Forest Products Model (a spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector), the consequences under current policies of a...

Public release of the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storchak, Dmitry A.; Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondára, István; Engdahl, E. Robert; Harris, James; Lee, William H.K.; Villaseñor, Antonio; Bormann, Peter

2013-01-01

The International Seismological Centre–Global Earthquake Model (ISC–GEM) Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900–2009) is the result of a special effort to substantially extend and improve currently existing global catalogs to serve the requirements of specific user groups who assess and model seismic hazard and risk. The data from the ISC–GEM Catalogue would be used worldwide yet will prove absolutely essential in those regions where a high seismicity level strongly correlates with a high population density.

From global to local: exploring the relationship between parameters and behaviors in models of electrical excitability.

PubMed

Fletcher, Patrick; Bertram, Richard; Tabak, Joel

2016-06-01

Models of electrical activity in excitable cells involve nonlinear interactions between many ionic currents. Changing parameters in these models can produce a variety of activity patterns with sometimes unexpected effects. Further more, introducing new currents will have different effects depending on the initial parameter set. In this study we combined global sampling of parameter space and local analysis of representative parameter sets in a pituitary cell model to understand the effects of adding K (+) conductances, which mediate some effects of hormone action on these cells. Global sampling ensured that the effects of introducing K (+) conductances were captured across a wide variety of contexts of model parameters. For each type of K (+) conductance we determined the types of behavioral transition that it evoked. Some transitions were counterintuitive, and may have been missed without the use of global sampling. In general, the wide range of transitions that occurred when the same current was applied to the model cell at different locations in parameter space highlight the challenge of making accurate model predictions in light of cell-to-cell heterogeneity. Finally, we used bifurcation analysis and fast/slow analysis to investigate why specific transitions occur in representative individual models. This approach relies on the use of a graphics processing unit (GPU) to quickly map parameter space to model behavior and identify parameter sets for further analysis. Acceleration with modern low-cost GPUs is particularly well suited to exploring the moderate-sized (5-20) parameter spaces of excitable cell and signaling models.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Improving the Ionospheric Auroral Conductance in a Global Ring Current Model and the Effects on the Ionospheric Electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Jordanova, V. K.; McGranaghan, R. M.; Solomon, S. C.

2017-12-01

The ionospheric conductance, height-integrated electric conductivity, can regulate both the ionospheric electrodynamics and the magnetospheric dynamics because of its key role in determining the electric field within the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system. State-of-the-art global magnetosphere models commonly adopt empirical conductance calculators to obtain the auroral conductance. Such specification can bypass the complexity of the ionosphere-thermosphere chemistry but on the other hand breaks the self-consistent link within the coupled system. In this study, we couple a kinetic ring current model RAM-SCB-E that solves for anisotropic particle distributions with a two-stream electron transport code (GLOW) to more self-consistently compute the height-dependent electric conductivity, provided the auroral electron precipitation from the ring current model. Comparisons with the traditional empirical formula are carried out. It is found that the newly coupled modeling framework reveals smaller Hall and Pedersen conductance, resulting in a larger electric field. As a consequence, the subauroral polarization streams demonstrate a better agreement with observations from DMSP satellites. It is further found that the commonly assumed Maxwellian spectrum of the particle precipitation is not globally appropriate. Instead, a full precipitation spectrum resulted from wave particle interactions in the ring current accounts for a more comprehensive precipitation spectrum.

Solar-terrestrial coupling through atmospheric electricity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.; Hays, P. B.

1979-01-01

There are a number of measurements of electrical variations that suggest a solar-terrestrial influence on the global atmospheric electrical circuit. The measurements show variations associated with solar flares, solar magnetic sector boundary crossings, geomagnetic activity, aurorae, differences between ground current and potential gradients at high and low latitudes, and solar cycle variations. The evidence for each variation is examined. Both the experimental evidence and the calculations made with a global model of atmospheric electricity indicate that there is solar-terrestrial coupling through atmospheric electricity which operates by altering the global electric current and field distribution. A global redistribution of currents and fields can be caused by large-scale changes in electrical conductivity, by alteration of the columnar resistance between thunderstorm cloud tops and the ionosphere, or by both. If the columnar resistance is altered above thunderstorms, more current will flow in the global circuit, changing the ionospheric potential and basic circuit variables such as current density and electric fields. The observed variations of currents and fields during solar-induced disturbances are generally less than 50% of mean values near the earth's surface.

Building Public Health Capacity through Online Global Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madhok, Rajan; Frank, Erica; Heller, Richard Frederick

2018-01-01

Rising disease burden and health inequalities remain global concerns, highlighting the need for health systems strengthening with a sufficient and appropriately trained workforce. The current models for developing such a workforce are inadequate and newer approaches are needed. In this paper we describe a model for public health capacity building…

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important research instrument for supporting the scientific justification for the Minamata Convention and monitoring of the implementation of targets of this convention, as well as the EU Mercury Strategy. This project provided the state of the art with regard to the development of the latest emission inventories for mercury, future emission scenarios, dispersion modelling of atmospheric mercury on a global and regional scale, and source-receptor techniques for mercury emission apportionment on a global scale.

Ring Current Ion Coupling with Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, George V.

2002-01-01

A new ring current global model has been developed for the first time that couples the system of two kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current (RC) ion dynamic, and another equation describes wave evolution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves (EMIC). The coupled model is able to simulate, for the first time self-consistently calculated RC ion kinetic and evolution of EMIC waves that propagate along geomagnetic field lines and reflect from the ionosphere. Ionospheric properties affect the reflection index through the integral Pedersen and Hall coductivities. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions, intensities of EMIC, global RC energy balance, and some other parameters will be studied in detail for the selected geomagnetic storms. The space whether aspects of RC modelling and comparison with the data will also be discussed.

Improved global simulation of groundwater-ecosystem interactions via tight coupling of a dynamic global ecosystem model and a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; van Kampenhout, Leo; Wassen, Martin

2017-04-01

In up to 30% of the global land surface ecosystems are potentially influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux by capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has a strong effect on evapotranspiration, vegetation dynamics, and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure, and biogeochemical processes and are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics. This coupled model allows us to explicitly account for groundwater effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes at global scale. Results of global simulations indicate that groundwater strongly influences fluxes of water, carbon and nitrogen, in many regions, adding up to a considerable effect at the global scale.

Particle tracing modeling of ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit during substorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brito, T. V.; Jordanova, V.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Henderson, M. G.; Morley, S.; Birn, J.

2016-12-01

The SHIELDS project aims to couple a host of different models for different regions of the magnetosphere using different numerical methods such as MHD, PIC and particle tracing, with the ultimate goal of having a more realistic model of the whole magnetospheric environment capturing, as much as possible, the different physics of the various plasma populations. In that context, we present a modeling framework that can be coupled with a global MHD model to calculate particle fluxes in the inner magnetosphere, which can in turn be used to constantly update the input for a ring current model. In that regard, one advantage of that approach over using spacecraft data is that it produces a much better spatial and temporal coverage of the nightside geosynchronous region and thus a possibly more complete input for the ring current model, which will likely produce more accurate global results for the ring current population. In this presentation, we will describe the particle tracing method in more detail, describe the method used to couple it to the BATS-R-US 3D global MHD code, and the method used to update the flux results to the RAM-SCB ring current model. We will also present the simulation results for the July 18, 2013 period, which showed significant substorm activity. We will compare simulated ion fluxes on the nightside magnetosphere with spacecraft observations to gauge how well our simulations are capturing substorm dynamics.

The changing global carbon cycle: linking local plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin; Jack McFarland; A. David McGuire; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Roger W. Ruess; Knut Kielland

2009-01-01

Most current climate-carbon cycle models that include the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are based on a model developed 40 years ago by Woodwell & Whittaker (1968) and omit advances in biogeochemical understanding since that time. Their model treats net C emissions from ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR,...

How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

Treesearch

C.R. Schwalm; D.N. Huntzinger; R.B. Cook; Y. Wei; I.T. Baker; R.P. Neilson; B. Poulter; Peter Caldwell; G. Sun; H.Q. Tian; N. Zeng

2015-01-01

Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we...

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

2016-12-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

2017-12-01

The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn

2017-04-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Some coolness concerning global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindzen, Richard S.

1990-01-01

The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

Controls on the global distribution of contourite drifts: Insights from an eddy-resolving ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thran, Amanda C.; Dutkiewicz, Adriana; Spence, Paul; Müller, R. Dietmar

2018-05-01

Contourite drifts are anomalously high sediment accumulations that form due to reworking by bottom currents. Due to the lack of a comprehensive contourite database, the link between vigorous bottom water activity and drift occurrence has yet to be demonstrated on a global scale. Using an eddy-resolving ocean model and a new georeferenced database of 267 contourites, we show that the global distribution of modern contourite drifts strongly depends on the configuration of the world's most powerful bottom currents, many of which are associated with global meridional overturning circulation. Bathymetric obstacles frequently modify flow direction and intensity, imposing additional finer-scale control on drift occurrence. Mean bottom current speed over contourite-covered areas is only slightly higher (2.2 cm/s) than the rest of the global ocean (1.1 cm/s), falling below proposed thresholds deemed necessary to re-suspend and redistribute sediments (10-15 cm/s). However, currents fluctuate more frequently and intensely over areas with drifts, highlighting the role of intermittent, high-energy bottom current events in sediment erosion, transport, and subsequent drift accumulation. We identify eddies as a major driver of these bottom current fluctuations, and we find that simulated bottom eddy kinetic energy is over three times higher in contourite-covered areas in comparison to the rest of the ocean. Our work supports previous hypotheses which suggest that contourite deposition predominantly occurs due to repeated acute events as opposed to continuous reworking under average-intensity background flow conditions. This suggests that the contourite record should be interpreted in terms of a bottom current's susceptibility to experiencing periodic, high-speed current events. Our results also highlight the potential role of upper ocean dynamics in contourite sedimentation through its direct influence on deep eddy circulation.

One ring to rule them all: storm time ring current and its influence on radiation belts, plasmasphere and global magnetosphere electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzulukova, Natalia; Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Moore, Thomas E.

2013-04-01

We report studies of the storm time ring current and its influence on the radiation belts, plasmasphere and global magnetospheric dynamics. The near-Earth space environment is described by multiscale physics that reflects a variety of processes and conditions that occur in magnetospheric plasma. For a successful description of such a plasma, a complex solution is needed which allows multiple physics domains to be described using multiple physical models. A key population of the inner magnetosphere is ring current plasma. Ring current dynamics affects magnetic and electric fields in the entire magnetosphere, the distribution of cold ionospheric plasma (plasmasphere), and radiation belts particles. To study electrodynamics of the inner magnetosphere, we present a MHD model (BATSRUS code) coupled with ionospheric solver for electric field and with ring current-radiation belt model (CIMI code). The model will be used as a tool to reveal details of coupling between different regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. A model validation will be also presented based on comparison with data from THEMIS, POLAR, GOES, and TWINS missions. INVITED TALK

A Saturnian cam current system driven by asymmetric thermospheric heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. G. A.

2011-02-01

We show that asymmetric heating of Saturn's thermosphere can drive a current system consistent with the magnetospheric ‘cam’ proposed by Espinosa, Southwood & Dougherty. A geometrically simple heating distribution is imposed on the Northern hemisphere of a simplified three-dimensional global circulation model of Saturn's thermosphere. Currents driven by the resulting winds are calculated using a globally averaged ionosphere model. Using a simple assumption about how divergences in these currents close by flowing along dipolar field lines between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, we estimate the magnetic field perturbations in the equatorial plane and show that they are broadly consistent with the proposed cam fields, showing a roughly uniform field implying radial and azimuthal components in quadrature. We also identify a small longitudinal phase drift in the cam current with radial distance as a characteristic of a thermosphere-driven current system. However, at present our model does not produce magnetic field perturbations of the required magnitude, falling short by a factor of ˜100, a discrepancy that may be a consequence of an incomplete model of the ionospheric conductance.

CURRENT METHODS AND RESEARCH STRATEGIES FOR MODELING ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY

EPA Science Inventory

The atmospheric pathway of the global mercury cycle is known to be the primary source of mercury contamination to most threatened aquatic ecosystems. Current efforts toward numerical modeling of atmospheric mercury are hindered by an incomplete understanding of emissions, atmosp...

On the Role of Global Magnetic Field Configuration in Affecting Ring Current Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Y.; Zaharia, S. G.; Fok, M. H.

2010-01-01

Plasma and field interaction is one important aspect of inner magnetospheric physics. The magnetic field controls particle motion through gradient, curvature drifts and E cross B drift. In this presentation, we show how the global magnetic field affects dynamics of the ring current through simulations of two moderate geomagnetic storms (20 November 2007 and 8-9 March 2008). Preliminary results of coupling the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) with a three-dimensional plasma force balance code (to achieve self-consistency in both E and B fields) indicate that inclusion of self-consistency in B tends to mitigate the intensification of the ring current as other similar coupling efforts have shown. In our approach, self-consistency in the electric field is already an existing capability of the CRCM. The magnetic self-consistency is achieved by computing the three-dimensional magnetic field in force balance with anisotropic ring current ion distributions. We discuss the coupling methodology and its further improvement. In addition, comparative studies by using various magnetic field models will be shown. Simulation results will be put into a global context by analyzing the morphology of the ring current, its anisotropy and characteristics ofthe interconnected region 2 field-aligned currents.

Real-time Assimilation of Altimeter Derived Synthetic Profiles Into a Global version of the Naval Research Laboratory's Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, R. C.; Barron, C. N.; Fox, D. N.; Smedstad, L. F.

2001-12-01

A global implementation of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center is currently running in real-time and is planned for transition to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) in 2002. The model encompasses the open ocean to 5 m depth on a curvilinear global model grid with 1/8 degree grid spacing at 45N, extending from 80 S to a complete arctic cap with grid singularities mapped into Canada and Russia. Vertically, the model employs 41 sigma-z levels with sigma in the upper-ocean and coastal regions and z in the deeper ocean. The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) provides 6-hourly wind stresses and heat fluxes for forcing, while the operational Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) provides the background climatology and tools for data pre-processing. Operationally available sea surface temperature (SST) and altimetry (SSH) data are assimilated into the NAVOCEANO global 1/8 degree MODAS 2-D analysis and the 1/16 degree Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) to provide analyses and forecasts of SSH and SST. The 2-D SSH and SST nowcast fields are used as input to the MODAS synthetic climatology database to yield three-dimensional fields of synthetic temperature and salinity for assimilation into global NCOM. The synthetic profiles are weighted higher at depth in the assimilation process to allow the numerical model to properly develop the mixed-layer structure driven by the real-time atmospheric forcing. Global NCOM nowcasts and forecasts provide a valuable resource for rapid response to the varied and often unpredictable operational requests for 3-dimensional fields of ocean temperature, salinity, and currents. In some cases, the resolution of the global product is sufficient for guidance. In cases requiring higher resolution, the global product offers a quick overview of local circulation and provides initial and boundary conditions for higher resolution coastal models that may be more specialized for a particular task or domain. Nowcast and forecast results are presented globally and in selected areas of interest and model results are compared with historical and concurrent observations and analyses.

The importance of vertical resolution in the free troposphere for modeling intercontinental plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Jiawei; Jacob, Daniel J.; Eastham, Sebastian D.

2018-05-01

Chemical plumes in the free troposphere can preserve their identity for more than a week as they are transported on intercontinental scales. Current global models cannot reproduce this transport. The plumes dilute far too rapidly due to numerical diffusion in sheared flow. We show how model accuracy can be limited by either horizontal resolution (Δx) or vertical resolution (Δz). Balancing horizontal and vertical numerical diffusion, and weighing computational cost, implies an optimal grid resolution ratio (Δx / Δz)opt ˜ 1000 for simulating the plumes. This is considerably higher than current global models (Δx / Δz ˜ 20) and explains the rapid plume dilution in the models as caused by insufficient vertical resolution. Plume simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (GFDL-FV3) over a range of horizontal and vertical grid resolutions confirm this limiting behavior. Our highest-resolution simulation (Δx ≈ 25 km, Δz ≈ 80 m) preserves the maximum mixing ratio in the plume to within 35 % after 8 days in strongly sheared flow, a drastic improvement over current models. Adding free tropospheric vertical levels in global models is computationally inexpensive and would also improve the simulation of water vapor.

How well do we succeed in modeling the global soil carbon pools?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viskari, T.; Liski, J.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial carbon pools are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle. Carbon from vegetation is deposited to the soil, which in turn releases carbon dioxide back to the atmosphere through heterotrophic respiration. The resulting soil carbon storage in the largest on land. While there are continuous efforts to improve the modeling of global soil carbon and how this storage is affected by climate change, this research requires still a more reliable baseline on how well the models estimate the current global soil carbon pools. Especially such comparisons are important for identifying the major challenges in the current soil carbon models. Here, we used the Yasso soil carbon model to create a global soil carbon map at a 0.5 degree resolution based on the available climate, land cover and vegetation productivity information. Yasso model describes the soil carbon cycling by pools that represent the breaking down of dead organic matter. We compared the model results to a measurement based projection of global soil carbon pools, and we examined the differences and spatial correlations between the two maps. In our findings, the modelled predictions captured the overall soil carbon distributions within 5 kgCm-2 on 63 % of the land area. The spatial distributions fit each other as well. The average soil carbon is smaller with the Yasso prediction ( 8.5 kg m-2) than with the measurement map ( 10 kg m-2) and there are notable areas, such as Siberia and Southern North America, where there are large differences between the model predictions and measurements. These results not only encourage future development of soil carbon models, but also highlight problem areas to focus and improve upon.

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

2016-04-28

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

2008-01-01

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Mapping Global Ocean Surface Albedo from Satellite Observations: Models, Algorithms, and Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Fan, X.; Yan, H.; Li, A.; Wang, M.; Qu, Y.

2018-04-01

Ocean surface albedo (OSA) is one of the important parameters in surface radiation budget (SRB). It is usually considered as a controlling factor of the heat exchange among the atmosphere and ocean. The temporal and spatial dynamics of OSA determine the energy absorption of upper level ocean water, and have influences on the oceanic currents, atmospheric circulations, and transportation of material and energy of hydrosphere. Therefore, various parameterizations and models have been developed for describing the dynamics of OSA. However, it has been demonstrated that the currently available OSA datasets cannot full fill the requirement of global climate change studies. In this study, we present a literature review on mapping global OSA from satellite observations. The models (parameterizations, the coupled ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer (COART), and the three component ocean water albedo (TCOWA)), algorithms (the estimation method based on reanalysis data, and the direct-estimation algorithm), and datasets (the cloud, albedo and radiation (CLARA) surface albedo product, dataset derived by the TCOWA model, and the global land surface satellite (GLASS) phase-2 surface broadband albedo product) of OSA have been discussed, separately.

Development and verification of local/global analysis techniques for laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.

1989-01-01

Analysis and design methods for laminated composite materials have been the subject of considerable research over the past 20 years, and are currently well developed. In performing the detailed three-dimensional analyses which are often required in proximity to discontinuities, however, analysts often encounter difficulties due to large models. Even with the current availability of powerful computers, models which are too large to run, either from a resource or time standpoint, are often required. There are several approaches which can permit such analyses, including substructuring, use of superelements or transition elements, and the global/local approach. This effort is based on the so-called zoom technique to global/local analysis, where a global analysis is run, with the results of that analysis applied to a smaller region as boundary conditions, in as many iterations as is required to attain an analysis of the desired region. Before beginning the global/local analyses, it was necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the three-dimensional elements currently implemented in the Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) Testbed. It was also desired to install, using the Experimental Element Capability, a number of displacement formulation elements which have well known behavior when used for analysis of laminated composites.

SBML-SAT: a systems biology markup language (SBML) based sensitivity analysis tool

PubMed Central

Zi, Zhike; Zheng, Yanan; Rundell, Ann E; Klipp, Edda

2008-01-01

Background It has long been recognized that sensitivity analysis plays a key role in modeling and analyzing cellular and biochemical processes. Systems biology markup language (SBML) has become a well-known platform for coding and sharing mathematical models of such processes. However, current SBML compatible software tools are limited in their ability to perform global sensitivity analyses of these models. Results This work introduces a freely downloadable, software package, SBML-SAT, which implements algorithms for simulation, steady state analysis, robustness analysis and local and global sensitivity analysis for SBML models. This software tool extends current capabilities through its execution of global sensitivity analyses using multi-parametric sensitivity analysis, partial rank correlation coefficient, SOBOL's method, and weighted average of local sensitivity analyses in addition to its ability to handle systems with discontinuous events and intuitive graphical user interface. Conclusion SBML-SAT provides the community of systems biologists a new tool for the analysis of their SBML models of biochemical and cellular processes. PMID:18706080

SBML-SAT: a systems biology markup language (SBML) based sensitivity analysis tool.

PubMed

Zi, Zhike; Zheng, Yanan; Rundell, Ann E; Klipp, Edda

2008-08-15

It has long been recognized that sensitivity analysis plays a key role in modeling and analyzing cellular and biochemical processes. Systems biology markup language (SBML) has become a well-known platform for coding and sharing mathematical models of such processes. However, current SBML compatible software tools are limited in their ability to perform global sensitivity analyses of these models. This work introduces a freely downloadable, software package, SBML-SAT, which implements algorithms for simulation, steady state analysis, robustness analysis and local and global sensitivity analysis for SBML models. This software tool extends current capabilities through its execution of global sensitivity analyses using multi-parametric sensitivity analysis, partial rank correlation coefficient, SOBOL's method, and weighted average of local sensitivity analyses in addition to its ability to handle systems with discontinuous events and intuitive graphical user interface. SBML-SAT provides the community of systems biologists a new tool for the analysis of their SBML models of biochemical and cellular processes.

Current and future background ozone simulations for Mexico using a multi-scale regional climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, B. K.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Avise, J. C.; Chung, S. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Streets, D. G.

2013-05-01

Global change will clearly have a significant impact on the environment. Among the concerns for future air quality in North America, intercontinental transport of pollution has become increasingly important. In this study, we examined the effect of projected changes in Asian emissions and emissions from lightning and wildfires to produce ozone background concentrations within Mexico and the continental US. This provides a basis for developing an understanding of North American background levels and how they may change in the future. Meteorological fields were downscaled from the results of the ECHAM5 global climate model using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two nested domains were employed, one covering most of the Northern Hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America using 220 km grid cells (semi-hemispheric domain) and one covering the continental US and northern Mexico using 36 km grid cells. Meteorological results from WRF were used to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, the SMOKE emissions processing tool, and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone concentrations for current (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) summertime conditions. The MEGAN model was used to calculate biogenic emissions for all simulations. For the semi-hemispheric domain, year 2000 global emissions of gases (ozone precursors) from anthropogenic (outside of North America), natural, and biomass burning sources from the POET and EDGAR emission inventories were used. The global tabulation for black and organic carbon (BC and OC respectively) was obtained from Bond et al. (2004) For the future decade, the current emissions were projected to the year 2050 following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. Anthropogenic emissions from the US, Canada, and Mexico were omitted so that only global background concentrations, and local biogenic, wildfire, and lightning emissions were treated. In this paper, we focus on background ozone levels in Mexico due to changes in future climate, local biogenic emissions and global emissions.

Data assimilation of ground GPG total electron content into a physics-based ionosheric model by use of the Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hajj, G. A.; Wilson, B. D.; Wang, C.; Pi, X.; Rosen, I. G.

2004-01-01

A three-dimensional (3-D) Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) is currently being developed by a joint University of Southern California and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) team. To estimate the electron density on a global grid, GAIM uses a first-principles ionospheric physics model and the Kalman filter as one of its possible estimation techniques.

Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, T. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

2010-01-01

We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

2013-12-01

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact studies.

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elosegui, Pedro

2004-01-01

The few millimeter per year level accuracy of radial global velocity estimates with the Global Positioning System (GPS) is at least an order of magnitude poorer than the accuracy of horizontal global motions. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. GPS error sources relevant to this project can be classified in two broad categories: (1) those related to the analysis of the GPS phase observable, and (2) those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined from the analysis of GPS data important aspect in the first category include the effect on vertical rate estimates due to standard analysis choices, such as orbit modeling, network geometry, ambiguity resolution, as well as errors in models (or simply the lack of models) for clocks, multipath, phase-center variations, atmosphere, and solid-Earth tides. The second category includes the possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference flames for determining vertical velocities in a global scale. The latter has been the subject of our research activities during this reporting period.

Validation of Salinity Data from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius Satellites in the Agulhas Current System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Button, N.

2016-02-01

The Agulhas Current System is an important western boundary current, particularly due to its vital role in the transport of heat and salt from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean, such as through Agulhas rings. Accurate measurements of salinity are necessary for assessing the role of the Agulhas Current System and these rings in the global climate system are necessary. With ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA's Aquarius/SAC-D satellites, we now have complete spatial and temporal (since 2009 and 2011, respectively) coverage of salinity data. To use this data to understand the role of the Agulhas Current System in the context of salinity within the global climate system, we must first understand validate the satellite data using in situ and model comparisons. In situ comparisons are important because of the accuracy, but they lack in the spatial and temporal coverage to validate the satellite data. For example, there are approximately 100 floats in the Agulhas Return Current. Therefore, model comparisons, such as the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), are used along with the in situ data for the validation. For the validation, the satellite data, Argo float data, and HYCOM simulations were compared within box regions both inside and outside of the Agulhas Current. These boxed regions include the main Agulhas Current, Agulhas Return Current, Agulhas Retroflection, and Agulhas rings, as well as a low salinity and high salinity region outside of the current system. This analysis reveals the accuracy of the salinity measurements from the Aquarius/SAC-D and SMOS satellites within the Agulhas Current, which then provides accurate salinity data that can then be used to understand the role of the Agulhas Current System in the global climate system.

The Effects of the Activities of Current Textbook and 5 E Model on the Attitude of the Students: Sample of "The Global Effects of Natural Resources Unit"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uzunoz, Abdulkadir

2011-01-01

This study aimed to determine the effects of the activities of current textbook and 5 E Model on the attitude of the students. This study is a research as an experimental model. For testing the effects of geography education supported by 5 E model and geography education based on activities of current textbook attitude of students, controlled…

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.

1996-12-31

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search anmore » artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.« less

Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodrum, A. W.

1989-01-01

GRAM series of four-dimensional atmospheric model validated by years of data. GRAM program, still available. More current are Gram 86, which includes atmospheric data from 1986 and runs on DEC VAX, and GRAM 88, which runs on IBM 3084. Program generates altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through atmosphere, and also useful for global circulation and diffusion studies.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-01-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-03-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

A global time-dependent model of thunderstorm electricity. I - Mathematical properties of the physical and numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Browning, G. L.; Tzur, I.; Roble, R. G.

1987-01-01

A time-dependent model is introduced that can be used to simulate the interaction of a thunderstorm with its global electrical environment. The model solves the continuity equation of the Maxwell current, which is assumed to be composed of the conduction, displacement, and source currents. Boundary conditions which can be used in conjunction with the continuity equation to form a well-posed initial-boundary value problem are determined. Properties of various components of solutions of the initial-boundary value problem are analytically determined. The results indicate that the problem has two time scales, one determined by the background electrical conductivity and the other by the time variation of the source function. A numerical method for obtaining quantitative results is introduced, and its properties are studied. Some simulation results on the evolution of the displacement and conduction currents during the electrification of a storm are presented.

Global Warming, Africa and National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-15

African populations. This includes awareness from a global perspective in line with The Army Strategy for the Environment, the UN’s Intergovernmental...2 attention. At the time, computer models did not indicate a significant issue with global warming suggesting only a modest increase of 2°C9...projected climate changes. Current Science The science surrounding climate change and global warming was, until recently, a point of

Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kok, Jasper F.; Ridley, David A.; Zhou, Qing; Miller, Ron L.; Zhao, Chun; Heald, Colette L.; Ward, Daniel S.; Albani, Samuel; Haustein, Karsten

2017-01-01

Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

Investigating EMIC Wave Dynamics with RAM-SCB-E

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordanova, V. K.; Fu, X.; Henderson, M. G.; Morley, S.; Welling, D. T.; Yu, Y.

2017-12-01

The distribution of ring current ions and electrons in the inner magnetosphere depends strongly on their transport in realistic electric (E) and magnetic (B) fields and concurrent energization or loss. To investigate the high variability of energetic particle (H+, He+, O+, and electron) fluxes during storms selected by the GEM Surface Charging Challenge, we use our kinetic ring current model (RAM) two-way coupled with a 3-D magnetic field code (SCB). This model was just extended to include electric field calculations, making it a unique, fully self-consistent, anisotropic ring current-atmosphere interactions model, RAM-SCB-E. Recently we investigated electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) instability in a local plasma using both linear theory and nonlinear hybrid simulations and derived a scaling formula that relates the saturation EMIC wave amplitude to initial plasma conditions. Global dynamic EMIC wave maps obtained with our RAM-SCB-E model using this scaling will be presented and compared with statistical models. These plasma waves can affect significantly both ion and electron precipitation into the atmosphere and the subsequent patterns of ionospheric conductance, as well as the global ring current dynamics.

Improving Global Modeling and Data Analysis Using Remotely-Sensed Rainfall Data: Lessons From TRMM and Plans for GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

I will discuss the need for accurate rainfall observations to improve our ability to model the earth's climate and improve short-range weather forecasts. I will give an overview of the recent progress in using of rainfall data provided by TRMM and other microwave instruments in data assimilation to improve global analyses and diagnose state-dependent systematic errors in physical parameterizations. I will outline the current and future research strategies in preparation for the Global Precipitation Mission.

Investigating storm-time magnetospheric electrodynamics: Multi-spacecraft observations of the June 22, 2015 magnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sazykin, S. Y.; Bala, R.; Coffey, V. N.; Chandler, M. O.; Minow, J. I.; Anderson, B. J.; Wolf, R.; Huba, J.; Baker, D. N.; Mauk, B.; Russell, C. T.

2015-12-01

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle. Availability of in situ observations from Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS), the Van Allen Probes (VAP), and THEMIS in the magnetosphere, field-aligned currents from AMPERE, as well as the ionospheric data from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) instrument suite on board the International Space Station (ISS) represents an exciting opportunity to analyze storm-related dynamics. Our real-time space weather alert system sent out a "red alert" warning users of the event 2 hours in advance, correctly predicting Kp indices greater than 8. During this event, the MMS observatories were taking measurements in the magnetotail, VAP were in the inner magnetosphere, THEMIS was on the dayside, and the ISS was orbiting at 400 km every 90 minutes. Among the initial findings are the crossing of the dayside magnetopause into the region earthward of 8 RE, strong dipolarizations in the MMS magnetometer data, and dropouts in the particle fluxes seen by the MMS FPI instrument suite. At ionospheric altitudes, the FMPU measurements of the ion densities show dramatic post-sunset depletions at equatorial latitudes that are correlated with the particle flux dropouts measured by the MMS FPI. AMPERE data show highly variable currents varying from intervals of intense high latitude currents to currents at maximum polar cap expansion to 50 deg MLAT and exceeding 20 MA. In this paper, we use numerical simulations with global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models and the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the inner magnetosphere in an attempt to place the observations in the context of storm-time global electrodynamics and cross-check the simulation global Birkeland currents with AMPERE distributions. Specifically, we will look at model-predicted effects of dipolarizations and the global convection on the inner magnetosphere via data-model comparison.

Magnetospheric Substorm Evolution in the Magnetotail: Challenge to Global MHD Modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Dorelli, J.; Rastaetter, L.

2003-12-01

Testing the ability of global MHD models to describe magnetotail evolution during substroms is one of the elements of science based validation efforts at CCMC. We perform simulations of magnetotail dynamics using global MHD models residing at CCMC. We select solar wind conditions which drive the accumulation of magnetic field in the tail lobes and subsequent magnetic reconnection and energy release. We will analyze the effects of spatial resolution in the plasma sheet on modeled expansion phase evolution, maximum energy stored in the tail, and details of magnetotail reconnection. We will pay special attention to current sheet thinning and multiple plasmoid formation.

Global variations in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system due to Sudden Impulses under different IMF By conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, D. S.; Zou, S.; Slavin, J. A.; Ridley, A. J.

2016-12-01

A sudden impulse (SI) event is a rapid increase in solar wind dynamic pressure, which compresses the Earth's magnetosphere from the dayside and travels towards the Earth's tail. During the SI events, compression front reconfigures the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (MI) current systems. This compression launches fast magnetosonic waves that carry the SI through magnetosphere and Alfven waves that enhance the field-aligned currents (FACs) at high-latitudes. FAC systems can be measured by Active Magnetosphere and Polar Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). The propagation front also creates travelling convection vortices (TCVs) in the ionosphere that map to the equatorial flank regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. The TCVs then move from dayside to the nightside ionosphere. To understand these SI-driven disturbances globally, we use the University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) with Global Magnetosphere (GM), Inner Magnetosphere (IM) and Ionosphere (IE) modules. We study the changes in the FAC systems, which link ionospheric and magnetospheric propagating disturbances under different IMF By conditions and trace the ionospheric disturbances to magnetospheric system to better understand the connection between two systems. As shown by previous studies, IMF By can cause asymmetries in the magnetic perturbations measured by the ground magnetometers. By using model results we determine the global latitudinal and longitudinal dependencies of the SI signatures on the ground. We also use the SWMF results to drive the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) to reveal how the Ionosphere-Thermosphere system is affected by the SI propagation. Comparisons are carried out between the IE model output and high latitude convection patterns from Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) measurements and SuperMAG ground magnetic field perturbations. In closing we have modeled the field-aligned currents, ionospheric convection patterns, temperature and density profiles to explore the global coupling of the ionosphere to magnetosphere during SI events with different By orientation.

Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Durack, Paul J; Wijffels, Susan E; Matear, Richard J

2012-04-27

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.

Recent global methane trends: an investigation using hierarchical Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, M. L.; Stavert, A.; Ganesan, A.; Lunt, M. F.

2014-12-01

Following a decade with little growth, methane concentrations began to increase across the globe in 2007, and have continued to rise ever since. The reasons for this renewed growth are currently the subject of much debate. Here, we discuss the recent observed trends, and highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses in current "inverse" methods for quantifying fluxes using observations. In particular, we focus on the outstanding problems of accurately quantifying uncertainties in inverse frameworks. We examine to what extent the recent methane changes can be explained by the current generation of flux models and inventories. We examine the major modes of variability in wetland models along with the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Using the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers (MOZART), we determine whether the spatial and temporal atmospheric trends predicted using these emissions can be brought into consistency with in situ atmospheric observations. We use a novel hierarchical Bayesian methodology in which scaling factors applied to the principal components of the flux fields are estimated simultaneously with the uncertainties associated with the a priori fluxes and with model representations of the observations. Using this method, we examine the predictive power of methane flux models for explaining recent fluctuations.

Assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data into a global ocean circulation model: How good are the results?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1999-11-01

The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/Poseidon data are analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model. The assimilation's success is examined by analyzing its consistency and reliability measured by formal error estimates with respect to independent measurements. Improvements in model solution are demonstrated, in particular, properties not directly measured. Comparisons are performed with sea level measured by tide gauges, subsurface temperatures and currents from moorings, and bottom pressure measurements. Model representation errors dictate what can and cannot be resolved by assimilation, and its identification is emphasized.

Global Effects of Transmitted Shock Wave Propagation Through the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere: First Results from 3-D Hybrid Kinetic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipatov, A. S.; Sibeck, D. G.

2016-01-01

We use a new hybrid kinetic model to simulate the response of ring current, outer radiation belt, and plasmaspheric particle populations to impulsive interplanetary shocks. Since particle distributions attending the interplanetary shock waves and in the ring current and radiation belts are non-Maxwellian, waveparticle interactions play a crucial role in energy transport within the inner magnetosphere. Finite gyroradius effects become important in mass loading the shock waves with the background plasma in the presence of higher energy ring current and radiation belt ions and electrons. Initial results show that shocks cause strong deformations in the global structure of the ring current, radiation belt, and plasmasphere. The ion velocity distribution functions at the shock front, in the ring current, and in the radiation belt help us determine energy transport through the Earth's inner magnetosphere.

Berkeley's New Approach to Global Engagement: Early and Current Efforts to Become More International. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.12.15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dirks, Nicholas B.; Gilman, Nils

2015-01-01

This essay discusses past and current thinking about the globalization of higher education (from a U.S. point of view in particular) and a new model we are attempting to develop at the University of California, Berkeley. This essay begins with a brief narrative of the historical evolution of efforts to internationalize education, from the…

Global Times Call for Global Measures: Investigating Automated Essay Scoring in Linguistically-Diverse MOOCs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reilly, Erin D.; Williams, Kyle M.; Stafford, Rose E.; Corliss, Stephanie B.; Walkow, Janet C.; Kidwell, Donna K.

2016-01-01

This paper utilizes a case-study design to discuss global aspects of massive open online course (MOOC) assessment. Drawing from the literature on open-course models and linguistic gatekeeping in education, we position freeform assessment in MOOCs as both challenging and valuable, with an emphasis on current practices and student resources. We…

Atmospheric electric field and current configurations in the vicinity of mountains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzur, I.; Roble, R. G.; Adams, J. C.

1985-01-01

A number of investigations have been conducted regarding the electrical distortion produced by the earth's orography. Hays and Roble (1979) utilized their global model of atmospheric electricity to study the effect of large-scale orographic features on the currents and fields of the global circuit. The present paper is concerned with an extension of the previous work, taking into account an application of model calculations to orographic features with different configurations and an examination of the electric mapping of these features to ionospheric heights. A two-dimensional quasi-static numerical model of atmospheric electricity is employed. The model contains a detailed electrical conductivity profile. The model region extends from the surface to 100 km and includes the equalization layer located above approximately 70 km. The obtained results show that the electric field and current configurations above mountains depend upon the curvature of the mountain slopes, on the width of the mountain, and on the columnar resistance above the mountain (or mountain height).

Surface Current Skill Assessment of Global and Regional forecast models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, A. A.

2016-02-01

The U.S. Coast Guard has been using SAROPS since January 2007 at all fifty of its operational centers to plan search and rescue missions. SAROPS relies on an Environmental Data Server (EDS) that integrates global, national, and regional ocean and meteorological observation and forecast data. The server manages spatial and temporal aggregation of hindcast, nowcast, and forecast data so the SAROPS controller has the best available data for search planning. The EDS harvests a wide range of global and regional forecasts and data, including NOAA NCEP's global HYCOM model (RTOFS), the U.S. Navy's Global HYCOM model, the 5 NOAA NOS Great Lakes models and a suite of other reginal forecasts from NOS and IOOS Regional Associations. The EDS also integrates surface drifter data as the U.S. Coast Guard regularly deploys Self-Locating Datum Marker Buoys (SLDMBs) during SAR cases and a significant set of drifter data has been collected and the archive continues to grow. This data is critically useful during real-time SAR planning, but also represents a valuable scientific dataset for analyzing surface currents. In 2014, a new initiative was started by the U.S. Coast Guard to evaluate the skill of the various models to support the decision making process during search and rescue planning. This analysis falls into 2 categories: historical analysis of drifter tracks and model predictions to provide skill assessment of models in different regions and real-time analysis of models and drifter tracks during a SAR incident. The EDS, using Liu and Wiesberg's (2014) autonomously determines surface skill measurements of the co-located models' simulated surface trajectories versus the actual drift of the SLDMBs (CODE/Davis style surface drifters GPS positioned at 30min intervals). Surface skill measurements are archived in a database and are user retrieval by lat/long/time cubes. This paper will focus on the comparison of models from in the period from 23 August to 21 September 2015. Surface Skill was determined for the following regions: California Coast, Gulf of Mexico, South and Mid Atlantic Bights. Skill was determined for the two version of the NCEP Global RTOFS, Navy's Global HYCOM model, and where appropriated the local regional models

The Role of Ionospheric Outflow Preconditioning in Determining Storm Geoeffectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Liemohn, M. W.; Ridley, A. J.

2012-12-01

It is now well accepted that ionospheric outflow plays an important role in the development of the plasma sheet and ring current during geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, even during quiet times, ionospheric plasma populates the magnetospheric lobes, producing a reservoir of hydrogen and oxygen ions. When the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turns southward, this reservoir is connected to the plasma sheet and ring current through magnetospheric convection. Hence, the conditions of the ionosphere and magnetospheric lobes leading up to magnetospheric storm onset have important implications for storm development. Despite this, there has been little research on this preconditioning; most global simulations begin just before storm onset, neglecting preconditioning altogether. This work explores the role of preconditioning in determining the geoeffectiveness of storms using a coupled global model system. A model of ionospheric outflow (the Polar Wind Outflow Model, PWOM) is two-way coupled to a global magnetohydrodynamic model (the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US), which in turn drives a ring current model (the Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model, RAM). This unique setup is used to simulate an idealized storm. The model is started at many different times, from 1 hour before storm onset to 12 hours before. The effects of storm preconditioning are examined by investigating the total ionospheric plasma content in the lobes just before onset, the total ionospheric contribution in the ring current just after onset, and the effects on Dst, magnetic elevation angle at geosynchronous, and total ring current energy density. This experiment is repeated for different solar activity levels as set by F10.7 flux. Finally, a synthetic double-dip storm is constructed to see how two closely spaced storms affect each other by changing the preconditioning environment. It is found that preconditioning of the magnetospheric lobes via ionospheric outflow greatly influences the geoeffectiveness of magnetospheric storms.

A simulation of the global ocean circulation with resolved eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

1988-12-01

A multilevel primitive-equation model has been constructed for the purpose of simulating ocean circulation on modern supercomputing architectures. The model is designed to take advantage of faster clock speeds, increased numbers of processors, and enlarged memories of machines expected to be available over the next decade. The model allows global eddy-resolving simulations to be conducted in support of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. Furthermore, global ocean modeling is essential for proper representation of the full range of oceanic and climatic phenomena. The first such global eddy-resolving ocean calculation is reported here. A 20-year integration of a global ocean model with ½° grid spacing and 20 vertical levels has been carried out with realistic geometry and annual mean wind forcing. The temperature and salinity are constrained to Levitus gridded data above 25-m depth and below 710-m depth (on time scales of 1 month and 3 years, respectively), but the values in the main thermocline are unconstrained for the last decade of the calculation. The final years of the simulation allow the spontaneous formation of waves and eddies through the use of scale-selective viscosity and diffusion. A quasi-equilibrium state shows many realistic features of ocean circulation, including unstable separating western boundary currents, the known anomalous northward heat transport in the South Atlantic, and a global compensation for the abyssal spread of North Atlantic Deep Water via a long chain of thermocline mass transport from the tropical Pacific, through the Indonesian archipelago, across the Indian Ocean, and around the southern tip of Africa. This chain of thermocline transport is perhaps the most striking result from the model, and eddies and waves are evident along the entire 20,000-km path of the flow. The modeled Gulf Stream separates somewhat north of Cape Hatteras, produces warm- and cold-core rings, and maintains its integrity as a meadering thermal front as far east as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The Florida Current near the Yucatan peninsula sheds warm-core rings into the Gulf of Mexico. The East Australia Current produces warm rings which travel southward where the main current turns eastward. The Kuroshio and Oyashio currents are modeled as separate and distinct, each capable of producing warm and cold rings, but neither of them being distinguishable more than 1500 km offshore. A number of frontal regions in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current also exhibit spontaneous variability. Some specific areas of vigorous eddy activity have been identified in the South Atlantic by examining regional enlargements of the southwest Atlantic and of the southeast Atlantic over a simulated span of 225 days, using color raster animations of the volume transport stream function and of the temperature at 160-m depth. The Agulhas Current spawns mainly warm-core rings which enter the large-scale gyre circulation of the South Atlantic after rounding the tip of Africa and moving to the northwest. The Drake Passage has two thermal fronts, the northern of which is strongly unstable and generates ring pairs at about a 140-day period, whose net effect is to transport heat poleward. The confluence of the Brazil Current and the Malvinas (Falkland) Current forces each to turn abruptly eastward and exhibit ring formation near the continental shelf break, with unstable meandering farther downstream. It appears that each separated jet has a distinct core for generating unstable waves with periods of roughly 60 days. More quantitative results on global dynamics will be forthcoming as seasonally forced simulations, including ones with ⅓° × ⅖° grid spacing, are obtained and as the simulated variability and eddy transports are analyzed in a systematic fashion.

A Model-Coupling Framework for Nearshore Waves, Currents, Sediment Transport, and Seabed Morphology

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

1008.3 ADOR/Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 1. Paper or abstract was released 2. A copy is filed in this office. WfcfeF Public Affairs...have been developed to simulate and predict their behaviors in the past few decades. For example, models have been designed to forecast global ...Smedstad LF. Rhodes RC Validation of interannual simulations from the 1/8° global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Ocean Model 2006;11:376-98. |5| Van

Visualization and dissemination of global crustal models on virtual globes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Liang-feng; Pan, Xin; Sun, Jian-zhong

2016-05-01

Global crustal models, such as CRUST 5.1 and its descendants, are very useful in a broad range of geoscience applications. The current method for representing the existing global crustal models relies heavily on dedicated computer programs to read and work with those models. Therefore, it is not suited to visualize and disseminate global crustal information to non-geological users. This shortcoming is becoming obvious as more and more people from both academic and non-academic institutions are interested in understanding the structure and composition of the crust. There is a pressing need to provide a modern, universal and user-friendly method to represent and visualize the existing global crustal models. In this paper, we present a systematic framework to easily visualize and disseminate the global crustal structure on virtual globes. Based on crustal information exported from the existing global crustal models, we first create a variety of KML-formatted crustal models with different levels of detail (LODs). And then the KML-formatted models can be loaded into a virtual globe for 3D visualization and model dissemination. A Keyhole Markup Language (KML) generator (Crust2KML) is developed to automatically convert crustal information obtained from the CRUST 1.0 model into KML-formatted global crustal models, and a web application (VisualCrust) is designed to disseminate and visualize those models over the Internet. The presented framework and associated implementations can be conveniently exported to other applications to support visualizing and analyzing the Earth's internal structure on both regional and global scales in a 3D virtual-globe environment.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

The Effects of Bursty Bulk Flows on Global-Scale Current Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Cao, J.; Fu, H.; Lu, H.; Yao, Z.

2017-12-01

Using a global magnetospheric MHD model coupled with a kinetic ring current model, we investigate the effects of magnetotail dynamics, particularly the earthward bursty bulk flows (BBFs) produced by the tail reconnection, on the global-scale current systems. The simulation results indicate that after BBFs brake around X = -10 RE due to the dipolar "magnetic wall," vortices are generated on the edge of the braking region and inside the inner magnetosphere. Each pair of vortex in the inner magnetosphere disturbs the westward ring current to arc radially inward as well as toward high latitudes. The resultant pressure gradient on the azimuthal direction induces region-1 sense field-aligned component from the ring current, which eventually is diverted into the ionosphere at high latitudes, giving rise to a pair of field-aligned current (FAC) eddies in the ionosphere. On the edge of the flow braking region where vortices also emerge, a pair of region-1 sense FACs arises, diverted fromthe cross-tail duskward current, generating a substorm current wedge. This is again attributed to the increase of thermal pressure ahead of the bursty flows turning azimuthally. It is further found that when multiple BBFs, despite their localization, continually and rapidly impinge on the "wall," carrying sufficient tail plasma sheet population toward the Earth, they can lead to the formation of a new ring current. These results indicate the important role that BBFs play in bridging the tail and the inner magnetosphere ring current and bring new insight into the storm-substorm relation.

The effects of bursty bulk flows on global-scale current systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yiqun; Cao, Jinbin; Fu, Huishan; Lu, Haoyu; Yao, Zhonghua

2017-06-01

Using a global magnetospheric MHD model coupled with a kinetic ring current model, we investigate the effects of magnetotail dynamics, particularly the earthward bursty bulk flows (BBFs) produced by the tail reconnection, on the global-scale current systems. The simulation results indicate that after BBFs brake around X = -10 RE due to the dipolar "magnetic wall," vortices are generated on the edge of the braking region and inside the inner magnetosphere. Each pair of vortex in the inner magnetosphere disturbs the westward ring current to arc radially inward as well as toward high latitudes. The resultant pressure gradient on the azimuthal direction induces region-1 sense field-aligned component from the ring current, which eventually is diverted into the ionosphere at high latitudes, giving rise to a pair of field-aligned current (FAC) eddies in the ionosphere. On the edge of the flow braking region where vortices also emerge, a pair of region-1 sense FACs arises, diverted from the cross-tail duskward current, generating a substorm current wedge. This is again attributed to the increase of thermal pressure ahead of the bursty flows turning azimuthally. It is further found that when multiple BBFs, despite their localization, continually and rapidly impinge on the "wall," carrying sufficient tail plasma sheet population toward the Earth, they can lead to the formation of a new ring current. These results indicate the important role that BBFs play in bridging the tail and the inner magnetosphere ring current and bring new insight into the storm-substorm relation.

Detecting and Understanding Changing Arctic Carbon Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruhwiler, L.

2017-12-01

Warming in the Arctic has proceeded faster than anyplace on Earth. Our current understanding of biogeochemistry suggests that we can expect feedbacks between climate and carbon in the Arctic. Changes in terrestrial fluxes of carbon can be expected as the Arctic warms, and the vast stores of organic carbon frozen in Arctic soils could be mobilized to the atmosphere, with possible significant impacts on global climate. Quantifying trends in Arctic carbon exchanges is important for policymaking because greater reductions in anthropogenic emissions may be required to meet climate goals. Observations of greenhouse gases in the Arctic and globally have been collected for several decades. Analysis of this data does not currently support significantly changed Arctic emissions of CH4, however it is difficult to detect changes in Arctic emissions because of transport from lower latitudes and large inter-annual variability. Unfortunately, current space-based remote sensing systems have limitations at Arctic latitudes. Modeling systems can help untangle the Arctic budget of greenhouse gases, but they are dependent on underlying prior fluxes, wetland distributions and global anthropogenic emissions. Also, atmospheric transport models may have significant biases and errors. For example, unrealistic near-surface stability can lead to underestimation of emissions in atmospheric inversions. We discuss our current understanding of the Arctic carbon budget from both top-down and bottom-up approaches. We show that current atmospheric inversions agree well on the CH4 budget. On the other hand, bottom-up models vary widely in their predictions of natural emissions, with some models predicting emissions too large to be accommodated by the budget implied by global observations. Large emissions from the shallow Arctic ocean are also inconsistent with atmospheric observations. We also discuss the sensitivity of the current atmospheric network to what is likely small, gradual increases in emissions over time by examining modeled and observed spatial and seasonal variability. An issue we will consider is whether well-mixed background atmospheric records are more likely to detect changing Arctic emissions compared to stronger, but more variable signal from local sources.

Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siler, Nicholas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Bretherton, Christopher S.

2018-02-01

Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r=0.84) of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58± 0.31 Wm^{-2} K^{-1} (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm^{-2} K^{-1}, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE PAGES

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ...

2016-06-09

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

Restoring Coastal Plants to Improve Global Carbon Storage: Reaping What We Sow

PubMed Central

Irving, Andrew D.; Connell, Sean D.; Russell, Bayden D.

2011-01-01

Long-term carbon capture and storage (CCS) is currently considered a viable strategy for mitigating rising levels of atmospheric CO2 and associated impacts of global climate change. Until recently, the significant below-ground CCS capacity of coastal vegetation such as seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves has largely gone unrecognized in models of global carbon transfer. However, this reservoir of natural, free, and sustainable carbon storage potential is increasingly jeopardized by alarming trends in coastal habitat loss, totalling 30–50% of global abundance over the last century alone. Human intervention to restore lost habitats is a potentially powerful solution to improve natural rates of global CCS, but data suggest this approach is unlikely to substantially improve long-term CCS unless current restoration efforts are increased to an industrial scale. Failure to do so raises the question of whether resources currently used for expensive and time-consuming restoration projects would be more wisely invested in arresting further habitat loss and encouraging natural recovery. PMID:21479244

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2016-09-01

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

Global evaluation of biofuel potential from microalgae

PubMed Central

Moody, Jeffrey W.; McGinty, Christopher M.; Quinn, Jason C.

2014-01-01

In the current literature, the life cycle, technoeconomic, and resource assessments of microalgae-based biofuel production systems have relied on growth models extrapolated from laboratory-scale data, leading to a large uncertainty in results. This type of simplistic growth modeling overestimates productivity potential and fails to incorporate biological effects, geographical location, or cultivation architecture. This study uses a large-scale, validated, outdoor photobioreactor microalgae growth model based on 21 reactor- and species-specific inputs to model the growth of Nannochloropsis. This model accurately accounts for biological effects such as nutrient uptake, respiration, and temperature and uses hourly historical meteorological data to determine the current global productivity potential. Global maps of the current near-term microalgae lipid and biomass productivity were generated based on the results of annual simulations at 4,388 global locations. Maximum annual average lipid yields between 24 and 27 m3·ha−1·y−1, corresponding to biomass yields of 13 to 15 g·m−2·d−1, are possible in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Saudi Arabia. The microalgae lipid productivity results of this study were integrated with geography-specific fuel consumption and land availability data to perform a scalability assessment. Results highlight the promising potential of microalgae-based biofuels compared with traditional terrestrial feedstocks. When water, nutrients, and CO2 are not limiting, many regions can potentially meet significant fractions of their transportation fuel requirements through microalgae production, without land resource restriction. Discussion focuses on sensitivity of monthly variability in lipid production compared with annual average yields, effects of temperature on productivity, and a comparison of results with previous published modeling assumptions. PMID:24912176

Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

2017-12-01

The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

High-resolution local gravity model of the south pole of the Moon from GRAIL extended mission data.

PubMed

Goossens, Sander; Sabaka, Terence J; Nicholas, Joseph B; Lemoine, Frank G; Rowlands, David D; Mazarico, Erwan; Neumann, Gregory A; Smith, David E; Zuber, Maria T

2014-05-28

We estimated a high-resolution local gravity field model over the south pole of the Moon using data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory's extended mission. Our solution consists of adjustments with respect to a global model expressed in spherical harmonics. The adjustments are expressed as gridded gravity anomalies with a resolution of 1/6° by 1/6° (equivalent to that of a degree and order 1080 model in spherical harmonics), covering a cap over the south pole with a radius of 40°. The gravity anomalies have been estimated from a short-arc analysis using only Ka-band range-rate (KBRR) data over the area of interest. We apply a neighbor-smoothing constraint to our solution. Our local model removes striping present in the global model; it reduces the misfit to the KBRR data and improves correlations with topography to higher degrees than current global models. We present a high-resolution gravity model of the south pole of the Moon Improved correlations with topography to higher degrees than global models Improved fits to the data and reduced striping that is present in global models.

High-resolution local gravity model of the south pole of the Moon from GRAIL extended mission data

PubMed Central

Goossens, Sander; Sabaka, Terence J; Nicholas, Joseph B; Lemoine, Frank G; Rowlands, David D; Mazarico, Erwan; Neumann, Gregory A; Smith, David E; Zuber, Maria T

2014-01-01

We estimated a high-resolution local gravity field model over the south pole of the Moon using data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory's extended mission. Our solution consists of adjustments with respect to a global model expressed in spherical harmonics. The adjustments are expressed as gridded gravity anomalies with a resolution of 1/6° by 1/6° (equivalent to that of a degree and order 1080 model in spherical harmonics), covering a cap over the south pole with a radius of 40°. The gravity anomalies have been estimated from a short-arc analysis using only Ka-band range-rate (KBRR) data over the area of interest. We apply a neighbor-smoothing constraint to our solution. Our local model removes striping present in the global model; it reduces the misfit to the KBRR data and improves correlations with topography to higher degrees than current global models. Key Points We present a high-resolution gravity model of the south pole of the Moon Improved correlations with topography to higher degrees than global models Improved fits to the data and reduced striping that is present in global models PMID:26074637

Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P

2016-03-01

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

Global Distributions of Ionospheric Electrostatic Potentials for Various Interplanetary Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartalev, M.; Papitashvili, V.; Keremidarska, V.; Grigorov, K.; Romanov, D.

2001-12-01

We report on a study of the global ionospheric electrostatic potential distributions obtained from combining two algorithms used for the mapping of high-latitude and middle-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics; that is, the LiMIE (http://www.sprl.umich.edu/mist/) and IMEH (http://geospace.nat.bg) models, respectively. In this combination, the latter model utilizes the LiMIE high-latitude field-aligned current distributions for various IMF conditions and different seasons (summer, winter, equinox). The IMEH model is a mathematical tool, allowing us to study conjugacy (or non-conjugacy) of the ionospheric electric fields on a global scale, from the northern and southern polar regions to the middle- and low-latitudes. The proposed numerical scheme permits testing of different mechanisms of the interhemispheric coupling and mapping to the ionosphere through the appropriate current systems. The scheme is convenient for determining self-consistently the separatrices in both the northern and southern hemispheres. In this study we focus on the global ionospheric electrostatic field distributions neglecting other possible electric field sources. Considering some implications of the proposed technique for the space weather specification and forecasting, we developed a Web-based interface providing global distributions of the ionospheric electrostatic potentials in near-real time from the ACE upstream solar wind observations at L1.

Achieving development goals for HIV, tuberculosis and malaria in sub-Saharan Africa through integrated antenatal care: barriers and challenges.

PubMed

Fowkes, Freya J I; Draper, Bridget L; Hellard, Margaret; Stoové, Mark

2016-12-12

The global health community is currently transitioning from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Unfortunately, progress towards maternal, newborn and infant health MDGs has lagged significantly behind other key health goals, demanding a renewed global effort in this key health area. The World Health Organization and other institutions heralded integrated antenatal care (ANC) as the best way to address the inter-related health issues of HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria in the high risk groups of pregnant women and infants; integrated ANC services also offer a mechanism to address slow progress towards improved maternal health. There is remarkably limited evidence on best practice approaches of program implementation, acceptability and effectiveness for integrated ANC models targeting multiple diseases. Here, we discuss current integrated ANC global guidelines and the limited literature describing integrated ANC implementation and evidence for their role in addressing HIV, malaria and TB during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa. We highlight the paucity of data on the effectiveness of integrated ANC models and identify significant structural barriers in the health system (funding, infrastructure, distribution, human resources), the adoption system (limited buy-in from implementers, leadership, governance) and, in the broader context, patient-centred barriers (fear, stigma, personal burdens) and barriers in funding structures. We highlight recommendations for action and discuss avenues for the global health community to develop systems to integrate multiple disease programs into ANC models of care that better address these three priority infectious diseases. With the current transition to the SDGs and concerns regarding the failure to meet maternal health MDGs, the global health community, researchers, implementers and funding bodies must work together to ensure the establishment of quality operational and implementation research to inform integrated ANC models. It is imperative that the global health community engages in a timely discussion about such implementation innovations and instigates appropriate actions to ensure advances in maternal health are sufficient to meet applicable SDGs.

Extensive middle atmosphere (20-120 KM) modification in the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-90)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, Dale

1990-01-01

The Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) is currently available in the 'GRAM-88' version (Justus, et al., 1986; 1988), which includes relatively minor upgrades and changes from the 'MOD-3' version (Justus, et al., 1980). Currently a project is underway to use large amounts of data, mostly collected under the Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) to produce a major upgrade of the program planned for release as the GRAM-90 version. The new data and program revisions will particularly affect the 25-90 km height range. Sources of data and preliminary results are described here in the form of cross-sectional plots.

3D model retrieval method based on mesh segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Yuanchao; Tang, Yan; Zhang, Qingchen

2012-04-01

In the process of feature description and extraction, current 3D model retrieval algorithms focus on the global features of 3D models but ignore the combination of global and local features of the model. For this reason, they show less effective performance to the models with similar global shape and different local shape. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for 3D model retrieval based on mesh segmentation. The key idea is to exact the structure feature and the local shape feature of 3D models, and then to compares the similarities of the two characteristics and the total similarity between the models. A system that realizes this approach was built and tested on a database of 200 objects and achieves expected results. The results show that the proposed algorithm improves the precision and the recall rate effectively.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate.

PubMed

Noever, D A; Brittain, A; Matsos, H C; Baskaran, S; Obenhuber, D

1996-01-01

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. Previous biome maps either remain unchanging or shift without taking into account climatic feedbacks such as radiation and temperature. We develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed temperature trend and order of magnitude change. The model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution that minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search, an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The method is to adjust biome areas subject to a constant global temperature and total surface area constraint. For regulating global temperature, oceans are found to dominate continental biomes. Algal beds are significant radiative levers as are other carbon intensive biomes including estuaries and tropical deciduous forests. To hold global temperature constant over the next 70 years this simulation requires that deserts decrease and forested areas increase. The effect of biome change on global temperature is revealed as a significant forecasting factor.

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

2016-01-01

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

Improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, A.; Medlyn, B. E.; Dukes, J.; Bonan, G. B.; von Caemmerer, S.; Dietze, M.; Kattge, J.; Leakey, A. D.; Mercado, L. M.; Niinemets, U.; Prentice, I. C. C.; Serbin, S.; Sitch, S.; Way, D. A.; Zaehle, S.

2015-12-01

Continued use of fossil fuel drives an accelerating increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and is the principal cause of global climate change. Many of the observed and projected impacts of rising [CO2] portend increasing environmental and economic risk, yet the uncertainty surrounding the projection of our future climate by Earth System Models (ESMs) is unacceptably high. Improving confidence in our estimation of future [CO2] is essential if we seek to project global change with greater confidence. There are critical uncertainties over the long term response of terrestrial CO2 uptake to global change, more specifically, over the size of the terrestrial carbon sink and over its sensitivity to rising [CO2] and temperature. Reducing the uncertainty associated with model representation of the largest CO2 flux on the planet is therefore an essential part of improving confidence in projections of global change. Here we have examined model representation of photosynthesis in seven process models including several global models that underlie the representation of photosynthesis in the land surface model component of ESMs that were part of the recent Fifth Assessment Report from the IPCC. Our approach was to focus on how physiological responses are represented by these models, and to better understand how structural and parametric differences drive variation in model responses to light, CO2, nutrients, temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. We challenged each model to produce leaf and canopy responses to these factors to help us identify areas in which current process knowledge and emerging data sets could be used to improve model skill, and also identify knowledge gaps in current understanding that directly impact model outputs. We hope this work will provide a roadmap for the scientific activity that is necessary to advance process representation, parameterization and scaling of photosynthesis in the next generation of Earth System Models.

Modeling of dust deposition in central Asia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The deposition of dust particles has a significant influence on the global bio-geochemical cycle. Currently, the lack of spatiotemporal data creates great uncertainty in estimating the global dust budget. To improve our understanding of the fate, transport and cycling of airborne dust, there is a ne...

Evaluation on Asian Dust Aerosol and Simulated Processes in CanAM4.2 Using Satellite Measurements and Station Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiran, P.; Li, J.; von Salzen, K.; Dai, T.; Liu, D.

2014-12-01

Mineral dust is a significant contributor to global and Asian aerosol burden. Currently, large uncertainties still exist in simulated aerosol processes in global climate models (GCMs), which lead to a diversity in dust mass loading and spatial distribution of GCM projections. In this study, satellite measurements from CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) and observed aerosol data from Asian stations are compared with modelled aerosol in the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4.2). Both seasonal and annual variations in Asian dust distribution are investigated. Vertical profile of simulated aerosol in troposphere is evaluated with CALIOP Level 3 products and local observed extinction for dust and total aerosols. Physical processes in GCM such as horizontal advection, vertical mixing, dry and wet removals are analyzed according to model simulation and available measurements of aerosol. This work aims to improve current understanding of Asian dust transport and vertical exchange on a large scale, which may help to increase the accuracy of GCM simulation on aerosols.

Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijer, Johan R.; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Schotten, Kees C. G. J.; Schipper, Aafke M.

2018-06-01

Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R 2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.

Implementation of an online chemical mechanism within a global-regional atmospheric model: design and initial steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorba, O.; Pérez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.

2009-04-01

Chemical processes in air quality modelling systems are usually treated independently from the meteorological models. This approach is computationally attractive since off-line chemical transport simulations only require a single meteorological dataset to produce many chemical simulations. However, this separation of chemistry and meteorology produces a loss of important information about atmospheric processes and does not allow for feedbacks between chemistry and meteorology. To take into account such processes current models are evolving to an online coupling of chemistry and meteorology to produce consistent chemical weather predictions. The Earth Sciences Department of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) develops the NMMB/BSC-DUST (Pérez et al., 2008), an online dust model within the global-regional NCEP/NMMB numerical weather prediction model (Janjic and Black, 2007) under development at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Current implementation is based on the well established regional dust model and forecast system DREAM (Nickovic et al., 2001). The most relevant characteristics of NMMB/BSC-DUST are its on-line coupling of the dust scheme with the meteorological driver, the wide range of applications from meso to global scales, and the inclusion of dust radiative effects allowing feedbacks between aerosols and meteorology. In order to complement such development, BSC works also in the implementation of a fully coupled online chemical mechanism within NMMB/BSC-DUST. The final objective is to develop a fully chemical weather prediction system able to resolve gas-aerosol-meteorology interactions from global to local scales. In this contribution we will present the design of the chemistry coupling and the current progress of its implementation. Following the NCEP/NMMB approach, the chemistry part will be coupled through the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) as a pluggable component. The chemical mechanism and chemistry solver is based on the Kinetic PreProcessor KPP (Sandu and Sander, 2006) package with the main purpose to maintain a wide flexibility when configuring the model. Such approach will allow using a simple general chemical mechanism for global applications or a more complex mechanism for regional to local applications at higher resolution. REFERENCES Janjic, Z.I., and Black, T.L., 2007. An ESMF unified model for a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9, 05025. Nickovic, S., Papadopoulos, A., Kakaliagou, O., and Kallos, G., 2001. Model for prediciton of desert dust cycle in the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 18113-18129. Pérez, C., Haustein, K., Janjic, Z.I., Jorba, O., Baldasano, J.M., Black, T.L., and Nickovic, S., 2008. An online dust model within the meso to global NMMB: current progress and plans. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, A41K-03, 2008. Sandu, A., and Sander, R., 2006. Technical note:Simulating chemical systems in Fortran90 and Matlab with the Kinetic PreProcessor KPP-2.1. Atmos. Chem. and Phys., 6, 187-195.

Structure of high latitude currents in global magnetospheric-ionospheric models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiltberger, M; Rigler, E. J.; Merkin, V; Lyon, J. G

2016-01-01

Using three resolutions of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global magnetosphere-ionosphere model (LFM) and the Weimer 2005 empirical model we examine the structure of the high latitude field-aligned current patterns. Each resolution was run for the entire Whole Heliosphere Interval which contained two high speed solar wind streams and modest interplanetary magnetic field strengths. Average states of the field-aligned current (FAC) patterns for 8 interplanetary magnetic field clock angle directions are computed using data from these runs. Generally speaking the patterns obtained agree well with results obtained from the Weimer 2005 computing using the solar wind and IMF conditions that correspond to each bin. As the simulation resolution increases the currents become more intense and narrow. A machine learning analysis of the FAC patterns shows that the ratio of Region 1 (R1) to Region 2 (R2) currents decreases as the simulation resolution increases. This brings the simulation results into better agreement with observational predictions and the Weimer 2005 model results. The increase in R2 current strengths also results in the cross polar cap potential (CPCP) pattern being concentrated in higher latitudes. Current-voltage relationships between the R1 and CPCP are quite similar at the higher resolution indicating the simulation is converging on a common solution. We conclude that LFM simulations are capable of reproducing the statistical features of FAC patterns.

Global terrestrial water storage connectivity revealed using complex climate network analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, A. Y.; Chen, J.; Donges, J.

2015-07-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) exerts a key control in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Although certain causal relationship exists between precipitation and TWS, the latter quantity also reflects impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, quantification of the spatial patterns of TWS will not only help to understand feedbacks between climate dynamics and the hydrologic cycle, but also provide new insights and model calibration constraints for improving the current land surface models. This work is the first attempt to quantify the spatial connectivity of TWS using the complex network theory, which has received broad attention in the climate modeling community in recent years. Complex networks of TWS anomalies are built using two global TWS data sets, a remote sensing product that is obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, and a model-generated data set from the global land data assimilation system's NOAH model (GLDAS-NOAH). Both data sets have 1° × 1° grid resolutions and cover most global land areas except for permafrost regions. TWS networks are built by first quantifying pairwise correlation among all valid TWS anomaly time series, and then applying a cutoff threshold derived from the edge-density function to retain only the most important features in the network. Basinwise network connectivity maps are used to illuminate connectivity of individual river basins with other regions. The constructed network degree centrality maps show the TWS anomaly hotspots around the globe and the patterns are consistent with recent GRACE studies. Parallel analyses of networks constructed using the two data sets reveal that the GLDAS-NOAH model captures many of the spatial patterns shown by GRACE, although significant discrepancies exist in some regions. Thus, our results provide further measures for constraining the current land surface models, especially in data sparse regions.

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Plant Uptake During Periods with no Photosynthesis Accounts for About Half of Global Annual Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.

2017-12-01

Uncertainties in current Earth System Model (ESM) predictions of terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks over the 21st century are as large as, or larger than, any other reported natural system uncertainties. Soil Organic Matter (SOM) decomposition and photosynthesis, the dominant fluxes in this regard, are tightly linked through nutrient availability, and the recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) used for climate change assessment had no credible representations of these constraints. In response, many ESM land models (ESMLMs) have developed dynamic and coupled soil and plant nutrient cycles. Here we quantify terrestrial carbon cycle impacts from well-known observed plant nutrient uptake mechanisms ignored in most current ESMLMs. In particular, we estimate the global role of plant root nutrient competition with microbes and abiotic process at night and during the non-growing season using the ACME land model (ALMv1-ECA-CNP) that explicitly represents these dynamics. We first demonstrate that short-term nutrient uptake dynamics and competition between plants and microbes are accurately predicted by the model compared to 15N and 33P isotopic tracer measurements from more than 20 sites. We then show that global nighttime and non-growing season nitrogen and phosphorus uptake accounts for 46 and 45%, respectively, of annual uptake, with large latitudinal variation. Model experiments show that ignoring these plant uptake periods leads to large positive biases in annual N leaching (globally 58%) and N2O emissions (globally 68%). Biases these large will affect modeled carbon cycle dynamics over time, and lead to predictions of ecosystems that have overly open nutrient cycles and therefore lower capacity to sequester carbon.

Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

2014-12-01

The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

In situ measurements of contributions to the global electrical circuit by a thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, J.N.; Holzworth, R.H.; McCarthy, M.P.

2009-01-01

The global electrical circuit, which maintains a potential of about 280??kV between the earth and the ionosphere, is thought to be driven mainly by thunderstorms and lightning. However, very few in situ measurements of electrical current above thunderstorms have been successfully obtained. In this paper, we present dc to very low frequency electric fields and atmospheric conductivity measured in the stratosphere (30-35??km altitude) above an active thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil. From these measurements, we estimate the mean quasi-static conduction current during the storm period to be 2.5 ?? 1.25??A. Additionally, we examine the transient conduction currents following a large positive cloud-to-ground (+ CG) lightning flash and typical - CG flashes. We find that the majority of the total current is attributed to the quasi-static thundercloud charge, rather than lightning, which supports the classical Wilson model for the global electrical circuit.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to imiprove the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. I this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the Goddard research plan of using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth system models.

PubMed

Rogers, Alistair; Medlyn, Belinda E; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Bonan, Gordon; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Dietze, Michael C; Kattge, Jens; Leakey, Andrew D B; Mercado, Lina M; Niinemets, Ülo; Prentice, I Colin; Serbin, Shawn P; Sitch, Stephen; Way, Danielle A; Zaehle, Sönke

2017-01-01

Accurate representation of photosynthesis in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is essential for robust projections of global change. However, current representations vary markedly between TBMs, contributing uncertainty to projections of global carbon fluxes. Here we compared the representation of photosynthesis in seven TBMs by examining leaf and canopy level responses of photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation (A) to key environmental variables: light, temperature, CO 2 concentration, vapor pressure deficit and soil water content. We identified research areas where limited process knowledge prevents inclusion of physiological phenomena in current TBMs and research areas where data are urgently needed for model parameterization or evaluation. We provide a roadmap for new science needed to improve the representation of photosynthesis in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere and Earth system models. No claim to original US Government works New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Updates on Modeling the Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Montmessin, F.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.; Klassen, D. R.; Wolff, M. J.

2017-01-01

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have made steady progress in simulating the current Mars water cycle. It is now widely recognized that clouds are a critical component that can significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes in particular are key to implementing clouds in a GCM: the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on heating/ cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress representing these processes in the NASA Ames GCM, particularly in the presence of radiatively active water ice clouds. We present the current state of our group's water cycle modeling efforts, show results from selected simulations, highlight some of the issues, and discuss avenues for further investigation.­

Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

2009-01-01

Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

Global electric field determination in the Earth's outer magnetosphere using energetic charged particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eastman, Timothy E.; Sheldon, R.; Hamilton, D.

1995-01-01

Although many properties of the Earth's magnetosphere have been measured and quantified in the past 30 years since it was discovered, one fundamental measurement (for zeroth order MHD equilibrium) has been made infrequently and with poor spatial coverage - the global electric field. This oversight is due in part to the neglect of theorists. However, there is renewed interest in the convection electric field because it is now realized to be central to many magnetospheric processes, including the global MHD equilibrium, reconnection rates, Region 2 Birkeland currents, magnetosphere ionosphere coupling, ring current and radiation belt transport, substorm injections, and several acceleration mechanisms. Unfortunately the standard experimental methods have not been able to synthesize a global field (excepting the pioneering work of McIlwain's geostationary models) and we are left with an overly simplistic theoretical field, the Volland-Stern electric field model. Single point measurements of the plasmapause were used to infer the appropriate amplitudes of this model, parameterized by K(sub p). Although this result was never intended to be the definitive electric field model, it has gone nearly unchanged for 20 years. The analysis of current data sets requires a great deal more accuracy than can be provided by the Volland-Stern model. The variability of electric field shielding has not been properly addressed although effects of penetrating magnetospheric electric fields has been seen in mid-and low-latitude ionospheric data sets. The growing interest in substorm dynamics also requires a much better assessment of the electric fields responsible for particle injections. Thus we proposed and developed algorithms for extracting electric fields from particle data taken in the Earth's magnetosphere. As a test of the effectiveness of these new techniques, we analyzed data taken by the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft in equatorial orbit from 1984 to 1989.

Integration of RAM-SCB into the Space Weather Modeling Framework

DOE PAGES

Welling, Daniel; Toth, Gabor; Jordanova, Vania Koleva; ...

2018-02-07

We present that numerical simulations of the ring current are a challenging endeavor. They require a large set of inputs, including electric and magnetic fields and plasma sheet fluxes. Because the ring current broadly affects the magnetosphere-ionosphere system, the input set is dependent on the ring current region itself. This makes obtaining a set of inputs that are self-consistent with the ring current difficult. To overcome this challenge, researchers have begun coupling ring current models to global models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. This paper describes the coupling between the Ring current Atmosphere interaction Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) tomore » the models within the Space Weather Modeling Framework. Full details on both previously introduced and new coupling mechanisms are defined. Finally, the impact of self-consistently including the ring current on the magnetosphere-ionosphere system is illustrated via a set of example simulations.« less

Integration of RAM-SCB into the Space Weather Modeling Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Welling, Daniel; Toth, Gabor; Jordanova, Vania Koleva

We present that numerical simulations of the ring current are a challenging endeavor. They require a large set of inputs, including electric and magnetic fields and plasma sheet fluxes. Because the ring current broadly affects the magnetosphere-ionosphere system, the input set is dependent on the ring current region itself. This makes obtaining a set of inputs that are self-consistent with the ring current difficult. To overcome this challenge, researchers have begun coupling ring current models to global models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. This paper describes the coupling between the Ring current Atmosphere interaction Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) tomore » the models within the Space Weather Modeling Framework. Full details on both previously introduced and new coupling mechanisms are defined. Finally, the impact of self-consistently including the ring current on the magnetosphere-ionosphere system is illustrated via a set of example simulations.« less

Parallel Electric Field on Auroral Magnetic Field Lines.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Huey-Ching Betty

1982-03-01

The interaction of Birkeland (magnetic-field-aligned) current carriers and the Earth's magnetic field results in electrostatic potential drops along magnetic field lines. The statistical distributions of the field-aligned potential difference (phi)(,(PARLL)) were determined from the energy spectra of electron inverted "V" events observed at ionospheric altitude for different conditions of geomagnetic activity as indicated by the AE index. Data of 1270 electron inverted "V"'s were obtained from Low-Energy Electron measurements of the Atmosphere Explorer-C and -D Satellite (despun mode) in the interval January 1974-April 1976. In general, (phi)(,(PARLL)) is largest in the dusk to pre-midnight sector, smaller in the post-midnight to dawn sector, and smallest in the near noon sector during quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions; there is a steady dusk-dawn-noon asymmetry of the global (phi)(,(PARLL)) distribution. As the geomagnetic activity level increases, the (phi)(,(PARLL)) pattern expands to lower invariant latitudes, and the magnitude of (phi)(,(PARLL)) in the 13-24 magnetic local time sector increases significantly. The spatial structure and intensity variation of the global (phi)(,(PARLL)) distribution are statistically more variable, and the magnitudes of (phi)(,(PARLL)) have smaller correlation with the AE-index, in the post-midnight to dawn sector. A strong correlation is found to exist between upward Birkeland current systems and global parallel potential drops, and between auroral electron precipitation patterns and parallel potential drops, regarding their mophology, their intensity and their dependence of geomagnetic activity. An analysis of the fine-scale simultaneous current-voltage relationship for upward Birkeland currents in Region 1 shows that typical field-aligned potential drops are consistent with model predictions based on linear acceleration of the charge carriers through an electrostatic potential drop along convergent magnetic field lines to maintain current continuity. In a steady state, this model of simple electrostatic acceleration without anomalous resistivity also predicts observable relations between global parallel currents and parallel potential drops and between global energy deposition and parallel potential drops. The temperature, density, and species of the unaccelerated charge carriers are the relevant parameters of the model. The dusk-dawn -noon asymmetry of the global (phi)(,(PARLL)) distribution can be explained by the above steady-state (phi)(,(PARLL)) process if we associate the source regions of upward Birkeland current carriers in Region 1, Region 2, and the cusp region with the plasma sheet boundary layer, the near-Earth plasma sheet, and the magnetosheath, respectively. The results of this study provide observational information on the global distribution of parallel potential drops and the prevailing process of generating and maintaining potential gradients (parallel electric fields) along auroral magnetic field lines.

GAMBIT: the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athron, Peter; Balazs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Dickinson, Hugh; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Lundberg, Johan; McKay, James; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Ripken, Joachim; Rogan, Christopher; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Seo, Seon-Hee; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

2017-11-01

We describe the open-source global fitting package GAMBIT: the Global And Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool. GAMBIT combines extensive calculations of observables and likelihoods in particle and astroparticle physics with a hierarchical model database, advanced tools for automatically building analyses of essentially any model, a flexible and powerful system for interfacing to external codes, a suite of different statistical methods and parameter scanning algorithms, and a host of other utilities designed to make scans faster, safer and more easily-extendible than in the past. Here we give a detailed description of the framework, its design and motivation, and the current models and other specific components presently implemented in GAMBIT. Accompanying papers deal with individual modules and present first GAMBIT results. GAMBIT can be downloaded from gambit.hepforge.org.

Ionospheric Modelling using GPS to Calibrate the MWA. II: Regional Ionospheric Modelling using GPS and GLONASS to Estimate Ionospheric Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, B. S.; Morgan, J.; Ord, S. M.; Tingay, S. J.; Bell, M.; Callingham, J. R.; Dwarakanath, K. S.; For, B.-Q.; Hancock, P.; Hindson, L.; Hurley-Walker, N.; Johnston-Hollitt, M.; Kapińska, A. D.; Lenc, E.; McKinley, B.; Offringa, A. R.; Procopio, P.; Staveley-Smith, L.; Wayth, R. B.; Wu, C.; Zheng, Q.

2016-07-01

We estimate spatial gradients in the ionosphere using the Global Positioning System and GLONASS (Russian global navigation system) observations, utilising data from multiple Global Positioning System stations in the vicinity of Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory. In previous work, the ionosphere was characterised using a single-station to model the ionosphere as a single layer of fixed height and this was compared with ionospheric data derived from radio astronomy observations obtained from the Murchison Widefield Array. Having made improvements to our data quality (via cycle slip detection and repair) and incorporating data from the GLONASS system, we now present a multi-station approach. These two developments significantly improve our modelling of the ionosphere. We also explore the effects of a variable-height model. We conclude that modelling the small-scale features in the ionosphere that have been observed with the MWA will require a much denser network of Global Navigation Satellite System stations than is currently available at the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory.

Challenges in the global QCD analysis of parton structure of nucleons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tung, Wu-Ki

2000-12-01

We briefly summarize the current status of global QCD analysis of the parton structure of the nucleon and then highlight the open questions and challenges which confront this endeavor on which much of the phenomenology of the Standard Model and the search of New Physics depend.

Towards a representation of priming on soil carbon decomposition in the global land biosphere model ORCHIDEE (version 1.9.5.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, Bertrand; Esteban Moyano, Fernando; Peylin, Philippe; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.

2016-03-01

Priming of soil carbon decomposition encompasses different processes through which the decomposition of native (already present) soil organic matter is amplified through the addition of new organic matter, with new inputs typically being more labile than the native soil organic matter. Evidence for priming comes from laboratory and field experiments, but to date there is no estimate of its impact at global scale and under the current anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle. Current soil carbon decomposition models do not include priming mechanisms, thereby introducing uncertainty when extrapolating short-term local observations to ecosystem and regional to global scale. In this study we present a simple conceptual model of decomposition priming, called PRIM, able to reproduce laboratory (incubation) and field (litter manipulation) priming experiments. Parameters for this model were first optimized against data from 20 soil incubation experiments using a Bayesian framework. The optimized parameter values were evaluated against another set of soil incubation data independent from the ones used for calibration and the PRIM model reproduced the soil incubations data better than the original, CENTURY-type soil decomposition model, whose decomposition equations are based only on first-order kinetics. We then compared the PRIM model and the standard first-order decay model incorporated into the global land biosphere model ORCHIDEE (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems). A test of both models was performed at ecosystem scale using litter manipulation experiments from five sites. Although both versions were equally able to reproduce observed decay rates of litter, only ORCHIDEE-PRIM could simulate the observed priming (R2 = 0.54) in cases where litter was added or removed. This result suggests that a conceptually simple and numerically tractable representation of priming adapted to global models is able to capture the sign and magnitude of the priming of litter and soil organic matter.

Towards a representation of priming on soil carbon decomposition in the global land biosphere model ORCHIDEE (version 1.9.5.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, B.; Moyano, F. E.; Peylin, P.; Ciais, P.; Janssens, I. A.

2015-10-01

Priming of soil carbon decomposition encompasses different processes through which the decomposition of native (already present) soil organic matter is amplified through the addition of new organic matter, with new inputs typically being more labile than the native soil organic matter. Evidence for priming comes from laboratory and field experiments, but to date there is no estimate of its impact at global scale and under the current anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle. Current soil carbon decomposition models do not include priming mechanisms, thereby introducing uncertainty when extrapolating short-term local observations to ecosystem and regional to global scale. In this study we present a simple conceptual model of decomposition priming, called PRIM, able to reproduce laboratory (incubation) and field (litter manipulation) priming experiments. Parameters for this model were first optimized against data from 20 soil incubation experiments using a Bayesian framework. The optimized parameter values were evaluated against another set of soil incubation data independent from the ones used for calibration and the PRIM model reproduced the soil incubations data better than the original, CENTURY-type soil decomposition model, whose decomposition equations are based only on first order kinetics. We then compared the PRIM model and the standard first order decay model incorporated into the global land biosphere model ORCHIDEE. A test of both models was performed at ecosystem scale using litter manipulation experiments from 5 sites. Although both versions were equally able to reproduce observed decay rates of litter, only ORCHIDEE-PRIM could simulate the observed priming (R2 = 0.54) in cases where litter was added or removed. This result suggests that a conceptually simple and numerically tractable representation of priming adapted to global models is able to capture the sign and magnitude of the priming of litter and soil organic matter.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System: TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. In this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Performance and Evaluation of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki; Errico, R. M.; Carvalho, D.

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) has spent more than a decade developing and implementing a global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework for use in evaluting both new observation types as well as the behavior of data assimilation systems. The NASA/GMAO OSSE has constantly evolved to relect changes in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimiation system, the Global Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the real world observational network. Software and observational datasets for the GMAO OSSE are publicly available, along with a technical report. Substantial modifications have recently been made to the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework, including the character of synthetic observation errors, new instrument types, and more sophisticated atmospheric wind vectors. These improvements will be described, along with the overall performance of the current OSSE. Lessons learned from investigations into correlated errors and model error will be discussed.

Global views of energetic particle precipitation and their sources: Combining large-scale models with observations during the 21-22 January 2005 magnetic storm (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozyra, J. U.; Brandt, P. C.; Cattell, C. A.; Clilverd, M.; de Zeeuw, D.; Evans, D. S.; Fang, X.; Frey, H. U.; Kavanagh, A. J.; Liemohn, M. W.; Lu, G.; Mende, S. B.; Paxton, L. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Rodger, C. J.; Soraas, F.

2010-12-01

Energetic ions and electrons that precipitate into the upper atmosphere from sources throughout geospace carry the influences of space weather disturbances deeper into the atmosphere, possibly contributing to climate variability. The three-dimensional atmospheric effects of these precipitating particles are a function of the energy and species of the particles, lifetimes of reactive species generated during collisions in the atmosphere, the nature of the driving space weather disturbance, and the large-scale transport properties (meteorology) of the atmosphere in the region of impact. Unraveling the features of system-level coupling between solar magnetic variability, space weather and stratospheric dynamics requires a global view of the precipitation, along with its temporal and spatial variation. However, observations of particle precipitation at the system level are sparse and incomplete requiring they be combined with other observations and with large-scale models to provide the global context that is needed to accelerate progress. We compare satellite and ground-based observations of geospace conditions and energetic precipitation (at ring current, radiation belt and auroral energies) to a simulation of the geospace environment during 21-22 January 2005 by the BATS-R-US MHD model coupled with a self-consistent ring current solution. The aim is to explore the extent to which regions of particle precipitation track global magnetic field distortions and ways in which global models enhance our understanding of linkages between solar wind drivers and evolution of energetic particle precipitation.

A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schellekens, Jaap; Dutra, Emanuel; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; van Dijk, Albert; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Minvielle, Marie; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Decharme, Bertrand; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Peßenteiner, Stefanie; van Beek, Rens; Polcher, Jan; Beck, Hylke; Orth, René; Calton, Ben; Burke, Sophia; Dorigo, Wouter; Weedon, Graham P.

2017-07-01

The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979-2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution). The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i) snow-dominated regions and (ii) tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB) showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr-1 (334 kg m-2 yr-1), while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m-2 yr-1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu), and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.

A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall

2004-01-01

Precipitation is a key link in the global water cycle and a proxy for changing climate; therefore proper assessment of the urban environment s impact on precipitation (land use, aerosols, thermal properties) will be increasingly important in ongoing climate diagnostics and prediction, Global Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) analysis and modeling, weather forecasting, freshwater resource management, urban planning-design and land-atmosphere-ocean interface processes. These facts are particularly critical if current projections for global urban growth are accurate. The goal of this paper is to provide a concise review of recent (1990-present) studies related to how the urban environment affects precipitation. In addition to providing a synopsis of current work, recent findings are placed in context with historical investigations such as METROMEX studies. Both observational and modeling studies of urban-induced rainfall are discussed. Additionally, a discussion of the relative roles of urban dynamic and microphysical (e.g. aerosol) processes is presented. The paper closes with a set of recommendations for what observations and capabilities are needed in the future to advance our understanding of the processes.

Projected Changes in Evapotranspiration Rates over Northeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Alexandre; Guimarães, Sullyandro; Vasconcelos, Francisco, Jr.; Sales, Domingo; da Silva, Emerson

2015-04-01

Climate simulations were performed using a regional model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, RAMS 6.0) driven by data from one of the CMIP5 models (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 - Earth System, HadGEM2-ES) over two CORDEX domains (South America and Central America) for the heavy-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Potential evapotranspiraion data from the RCM and from the CMIP5 global models were analyzed over Northeast Brazil, a semiarid region with a short rainy season (usually February to May in its northern portion due to the seasonal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone) and over which droughts are frequent. Significant changes in the potential evapotranspiration were found, with most models showing a increasing trend along the 21st century, which are expected to alter the surface water budget, increasing the current water deficit (precipitation is currently much smaller than potential evapotranspiration). Based on the projections from the majority of the models, we expect important impacts over local agriculture and water resources over Northeast Brazil.

Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-27

that most of the global warming of the last three decades is very likely caused by human-related emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG, mostly carbon...such warming is projected by most models throughout the Arctic, some models project slight cooling localized in the North Atlantic Ocean just south of...found that period to be distinctly different from the recent multi-decadal warming , in part because the current warmth is global . Changes in the

Critical carbon input to maintain current soil organic carbon stocks in global wheat systems

PubMed Central

Wang, Guocheng; Luo, Zhongkui; Han, Pengfei; Chen, Huansheng; Xu, Jingjing

2016-01-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in croplands is a crucial component of global carbon (C) cycle. Depending on local environmental conditions and management practices, typical C input is generally required to reduce or reverse C loss in agricultural soils. No studies have quantified the critical C input for maintaining SOC at global scale with high resolution. Such information will provide a baseline map for assessing soil C dynamics under potential changes in management practices and climate, and thus enable development of management strategies to reduce C footprint from farm to regional scales. We used the soil C model RothC to simulate the critical C input rates needed to maintain existing soil C level at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution in global wheat systems. On average, the critical C input was estimated to be 2.0 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, with large spatial variability depending on local soil and climatic conditions. Higher C inputs are required in wheat system of central United States and western Europe, mainly due to the higher current soil C stocks present in these regions. The critical C input could be effectively estimated using a summary model driven by current SOC level, mean annual temperature, precipitation, and soil clay content. PMID:26759192

Assessing the Importance of Prior Biospheric Fluxes on Inverse Model Estimates of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, S.; Johnson, M. S.; Potter, C. S.; Genovese, V. B.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric sources/sinks. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Currently, atmospheric chemical transport models (CTM) and global climate models (GCM) use multiple different biospheric CO2 flux models resulting in large differences in simulating the global carbon cycle. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission was designed to allow for the improved understanding of the processes involved in the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and therefore allowing for more accurate assessment of the seasonal/inter-annual variability of CO2. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions allowing for the evaluation of model simulations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and facilitating global/regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes. We conduct a 4-D Variation (4D-Var) data assimilation with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) CTM using 1) OCO-2 land nadir and land glint retrievals and 2) global in situ surface flask observations to constrain biospheric CO2 fluxes. We apply different state-of-the-science year-specific CO2 flux models (e.g., NASA-CASA (NASA-Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach), CASA-GFED (Global Fire Emissions Database), Simple Biosphere Model version 4 (SiB-4), and LPJ (Lund-Postdam-Jena)) to assess the impact of "a priori" flux predictions to "a posteriori" estimates. We will present the "top-down" CO2 flux estimates for the year 2015 using OCO-2 and in situ observations, and a complete indirect evaluation of the a priori and a posteriori flux estimates using independent in situ observations. We will also present our assessment of the variability of "top-down" CO2 flux estimates when using different biospheric CO2 flux models. This work will improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle, specifically, how OCO-2 observations can be used to constrain biospheric CO2 flux model estimates.

Remote sensing of ocean surface currents: a review of what is being observed and what is being assimilated

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isern-Fontanet, Jordi; Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Turiel, Antonio; García-Ladona, Emilio

2017-10-01

Ocean currents play a key role in Earth's climate - they impact almost any process taking place in the ocean and are of major importance for navigation and human activities at sea. Nevertheless, their observation and forecasting are still difficult. First, no observing system is able to provide direct measurements of global ocean currents on synoptic scales. Consequently, it has been necessary to use sea surface height and sea surface temperature measurements and refer to dynamical frameworks to derive the velocity field. Second, the assimilation of the velocity field into numerical models of ocean circulation is difficult mainly due to lack of data. Recent experiments that assimilate coastal-based radar data have shown that ocean currents will contribute to increasing the forecast skill of surface currents, but require application in multidata assimilation approaches to better identify the thermohaline structure of the ocean. In this paper we review the current knowledge in these fields and provide a global and systematic view of the technologies to retrieve ocean velocities in the upper ocean and the available approaches to assimilate this information into ocean models.

Global Instrumental Seismic Catalog: earthquake relocations for 1900-present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villasenor, A.; Engdahl, E.; Storchak, D. A.; Bondar, I.

2010-12-01

We present the current status of our efforts to produce a set of homogeneous earthquake locations and improved focal depths towards the compilation of a Global Catalog of instrumentally recorded earthquakes that will be complete down to the lowest magnitude threshold possible on a global scale and for the time period considered. This project is currently being carried out under the auspices of GEM (Global Earthquake Model). The resulting earthquake catalog will be a fundamental dataset not only for earthquake risk modeling and assessment on a global scale, but also for a large number of studies such as global and regional seismotectonics; the rupture zones and return time of large, damaging earthquakes; the spatial-temporal pattern of moment release along seismic zones and faults etc. Our current goal is to re-locate all earthquakes with available station arrival data using the following magnitude thresholds: M5.5 for 1964-present, M6.25 for 1918-1963, M7.5 (complemented with significant events in continental regions) for 1900-1917. Phase arrival time data for earthquakes after 1963 are available in digital form from the International Seismological Centre (ISC). For earthquakes in the time period 1918-1963, phase data is obtained by scanning the printed International Seismological Summary (ISS) bulletins and applying optical character recognition routines. For earlier earthquakes we will collect phase data from individual station bulletins. We will illustrate some of the most significant results of this relocation effort, including aftershock distributions for large earthquakes, systematic differences in epicenter and depth with respect to previous location, examples of grossly mislocated events, etc.

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

2015-09-01

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reviewing Biosphere Reserves globally: effective conservation action or bureaucratic label?

PubMed

Coetzer, Kaera L; Witkowski, Edward T F; Erasmus, Barend F N

2014-02-01

The Biosphere Reserve (BR) model of UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Programme reflects a shift towards more accountable conservation. Biosphere Reserves attempt to reconcile environmental protection with sustainable development; they explicitly acknowledge humans, and human interests in the conservation landscape while still maintaining the ecological values of existing protected areas. Conceptually, this model is attractive, with 610 sites currently designated globally. Yet the practical reality of implementing dual 'conservation' and 'development' goals is challenging, with few examples successfully conforming to the model's full criteria. Here, we review the history of Biosphere Reserves from first inception in 1974 to the current status quo, and examine the suitability of the designation as an effective conservation model. We track the spatial expansion of Biosphere Reserves globally, assessing the influence of the Statutory Framework of the World Network of Biosphere Reserves and Seville strategy in 1995, when the BR concept refocused its core objectives on sustainable development. We use a comprehensive range of case studies to discuss conformity to the Programme, the social and ecological consequences associated with implementation of the designation, and challenges in aligning conservation and development. Given that the 'Biosphere Reserve' label is a relatively unknown designation in the public arena, this review also provides details on popularising the Biosphere Reserve brand, as well as prospects for further research, currently unexploited, but implicit in the designation. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

GEM-AC, a stratospheric-tropospheric global and regional model for air quality and climate change: evaluation of gas phase properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaminski, J. W.; Semeniuk, K.; McConnell, J. C.; Lupu, A.; Mamun, A.

2012-12-01

The Global Environmental Multiscale model for Air Quality and climate change (GEM-AC) is a global general circulation model based on the GEM model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. It can be run with a global uniform (GU) grid or a global variable (GV) grid where the core has uniform grid spacing and the exterior grid expands. With a GV grid high resolution regional runs can be accomplished without a concern for boundary conditions. The work described here uses GEM version 3.3.2. The gas-phase chemistry consists in detailed reactions of Ox, NOx, HOx, CO, CH4, NMVOCs, halocarbons, ClOx and BrO. We have recently added elements of the Global Modal-aerosol eXtension (GMXe) scheme to address aerosol microphysics and gas-aerosol partitioning. The evaluation of the MESSY GMXe aerosol scheme is addressed in another poster. The Canadian aerosol module (CAM) is also available. Tracers are advected using the semi-Lagrangian scheme native to GEM. The vertical transport includes parameterized subgrid scale turbulence and large scale convection. Dry deposition is implemented as a flux boundary condition in the vertical diffusion equation. For climate runs the GHGs CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs in the radiation scheme are adjusted to the scenario considered. In GV regional mode at high resolutions a lake model, FLAKE is also included. Wet removal comprises both in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging. With the gas phase chemistry the model has been run for a series of ten year time slices on a 3°×3° global grid with 77 hybrid levels from the surface to 0.15 hPa. The tropospheric and stratospheric gas phase results are compared with satellite measurements including, ACE, MIPAS, MOPITT, and OSIRIS. Current evaluations of the ozone field and other stratospheric fields are encouraging and tropospheric lifetimes for CH4 and CH3CCl3 are in reasonable accord with tropospheric models. We will present results for current and future climate conditions forced by SST for 2050.

High-resolution Local Gravity Model of the South Pole of the Moon from GRAIL Extended Mission Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossens, Sander Johannes; Sabaka, Terence J.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Rowlands, David D.; Mazarico, Erwan; Neumann, Gregory A.; Smith, David E.; Zuber, Maria T.

2014-01-01

We estimated a high-resolution local gravity field model over the south pole of the Moon using data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory's extended mission. Our solution consists of adjustments with respect to a global model expressed in spherical harmonics. The adjustments are expressed as gridded gravity anomalies with a resolution of 1/6deg by 1/6deg (equivalent to that of a degree and order 1080 model in spherical harmonics), covering a cap over the south pole with a radius of 40deg. The gravity anomalies have been estimated from a short-arc analysis using only Ka-band range-rate (KBRR) data over the area of interest. We apply a neighbor-smoothing constraint to our solution. Our local model removes striping present in the global model; it reduces the misfit to the KBRR data and improves correlations with topography to higher degrees than current global models.

Modeling vegetation and carbon dynamics of managed grasslands at the global scale with LPJmL 3.6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph; Heinke, Jens; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bondeau, Alberte; Boons-Prins, Eltje R.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Leffelaar, Peter A.; te Roller, Johnny A.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten

2018-02-01

Grassland management affects the carbon fluxes of one-third of the global land area and is thus an important factor for the global carbon budget. Nonetheless, this aspect has been largely neglected or underrepresented in global carbon cycle models. We investigate four harvesting schemes for the managed grassland implementation of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) that facilitate a better representation of actual management systems globally. We describe the model implementation and analyze simulation results with respect to harvest, net primary productivity and soil carbon content and by evaluating them against reported grass yields in Europe. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for differences in grassland management by assessing potential livestock grazing densities as well as the impacts of grazing, grazing intensities and mowing systems on soil carbon stocks. Grazing leads to soil carbon losses in polar or arid regions even at moderate livestock densities (< 0.4 livestock units per hectare - LSU ha-1) but not in temperate regions even at much higher densities (0.4 to 1.2 LSU ha-1). Applying LPJmL with the new grassland management options enables assessments of the global grassland production and its impact on the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles but requires a global data set on current grassland management.

The Role of Ocean Currents in the Temperature Selection of Plankton: Insights from an Individual-Based Model

PubMed Central

Hellweger, Ferdi L.; van Sebille, Erik; Calfee, Benjamin C.; Chandler, Jeremy W.; Zinser, Erik R.; Swan, Brandon K.; Fredrick, Neil D.

2016-01-01

Biogeography studies that correlate the observed distribution of organisms to environmental variables are typically based on local conditions. However, in cases with substantial translocation, like planktonic organisms carried by ocean currents, selection may happen upstream and local environmental factors may not be representative of those that shaped the local population. Here we use an individual-based model of microbes in the global surface ocean to explore this effect for temperature. We simulate up to 25 million individual cells belonging to up to 50 species with different temperature optima. Microbes are moved around the globe based on a hydrodynamic model, and grow and die based on local temperature. We quantify the role of currents using the “advective temperature differential” metric, which is the optimum temperature of the most abundant species from the model with advection minus that from the model without advection. This differential depends on the location and can be up to 4°C. Poleward-flowing currents, like the Gulf Stream, generally experience cooling and the differential is positive. We apply our results to three global datasets. For observations of optimum growth temperature of phytoplankton, accounting for the effect of currents leads to a slightly better agreement with observations, but there is large variability and the improvement is not statistically significant. For observed Prochlorococcus ecotype ratios and metagenome nucleotide divergence, accounting for advection improves the correlation significantly, especially in areas with relatively strong poleward or equatorward currents. PMID:27907181

History, Structure and Agency in Global Health Governance

PubMed Central

Gill, Stephen; Benatar, Solomon R.

2017-01-01

Ilona Kickbusch’s thought provoking editorial is criticized in this commentary, partly because she fails to refer to previous critical work on the global conditions and policies that sustain inequality, poverty, poor health and damage to the biosphere and, as a result, she misreads global power and elides consideration of the fundamental historical structures of political and material power that shape agency in global health governance. We also doubt that global health can be improved through structures and processes of multilateralism that are premised on the continued reproduction of the ecologically myopic and socially unsustainable market civilization model of capitalist development that currently prevails in the world economy. This model drives net financial flows from poor to rich countries and from the poor to the affluent and super wealthy individuals. By contrast, we suggest that significant progress in global health requires a profound and socially just restructuring of global power, greater global solidarity and the "development of sustainability." PMID:28812808

Top-down signal transmission and global hyperconnectivity in auditory-visual synesthesia: Evidence from a functional EEG resting-state study.

PubMed

Brauchli, Christian; Elmer, Stefan; Rogenmoser, Lars; Burkhard, Anja; Jäncke, Lutz

2018-01-01

Auditory-visual (AV) synesthesia is a rare phenomenon in which an auditory stimulus induces a "concurrent" color sensation. Current neurophysiological models of synesthesia mainly hypothesize "hyperconnected" and "hyperactivated" brains, but differ in the directionality of signal transmission. The two-stage model proposes bottom-up signal transmission from inducer- to concurrent- to higher-order brain areas, whereas the disinhibited feedback model postulates top-down signal transmission from inducer- to higher-order- to concurrent brain areas. To test the different models of synesthesia, we estimated local current density, directed and undirected connectivity patterns in the intracranial space during 2 min of resting-state (RS) EEG in 11 AV synesthetes and 11 nonsynesthetes. AV synesthetes demonstrated increased parietal theta, alpha, and lower beta current density compared to nonsynesthetes. Furthermore, AV synesthetes were characterized by increased top-down signal transmission from the superior parietal lobe to the left color processing area V4 in the upper beta frequency band. Analyses of undirected connectivity revealed a global, synesthesia-specific hyperconnectivity in the alpha frequency band. The involvement of the superior parietal lobe even during rest is a strong indicator for its key role in AV synesthesia. By demonstrating top-down signal transmission in AV synesthetes, we provide direct support for the disinhibited feedback model of synesthesia. Finally, we suggest that synesthesia is a consequence of global hyperconnectivity. Hum Brain Mapp 39:522-531, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Particle-in-cell and global simulations of α to γ transition in atmospheric pressure Penning-dominated capacitive discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, E.; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.; Chabert, P.; Lazzaroni, C.

2014-06-01

Atmospheric pressure radio-frequency (rf) capacitive micro-discharges are of interest due to emerging applications, especially in the bio-medical field. A previous global model did not consider high-power phenomena such as sheath multiplication, thus limiting its applicability to the lower power range. To overcome this, we use one-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of atmospheric He/0.1% N2 capacitive discharges over a wide range of currents and frequencies to guide the development of a more general global model which is also valid at higher powers. The new model includes sheath multiplication and two classes of electrons: the higher temperature ‘hot’ electrons associated with the sheaths, and the cooler ‘warm’ electrons associated with the bulk. The electric field and the electron power balance are solved analytically to determine the time-varying hot and warm temperatures and the effective rate coefficients. The particle balance equations are integrated numerically to determine the species densities. The model and PIC results are compared, showing reasonable agreement over the range of currents and frequencies studied. They indicate a transition from an α mode at low power characterized by relatively high electron temperature Te with a near uniform profile to a γ mode at high power with a Te profile strongly depressed in the bulk plasma. The transition is accompanied by an increase in density and a decrease in sheath widths. The current and frequency scalings of the model are confirmed by the PIC simulations.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Field-aligned currents and magnetospheric convection - A comparison between MHD simulations and observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Raymond J.; Ogino, Tatsuki

1988-01-01

A time-dependent three-dimensional MHD model was used to investigate the magnetospheric configuration as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field direction when it was in the y-z plane in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinates. The model results show large global convection cells, tail lobe cells, high-latitude polarcap cells, and low latitude cells. The field-aligned currents generated in the model magnetosphere and the model convection system are compared with observations from low-altitude polar orbiting satellites.

Global validation of a process-based model on vegetation gross primary production using eddy covariance observations.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Cai, Wenwen; Xia, Jiangzhou; Dong, Wenjie; Zhou, Guangsheng; Chen, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Yuan, Wenping

2014-01-01

Gross Primary Production (GPP) is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle. However, large uncertainties in current global estimations persist. In this study, we examined the performance of a process-based model (Integrated BIosphere Simulator, IBIS) at 62 eddy covariance sites around the world. Our results indicated that the IBIS model explained 60% of the observed variation in daily GPP at all validation sites. Comparison with a satellite-based vegetation model (Eddy Covariance-Light Use Efficiency, EC-LUE) revealed that the IBIS simulations yielded comparable GPP results as the EC-LUE model. Global mean GPP estimated by the IBIS model was 107.50±1.37 Pg C year(-1) (mean value ± standard deviation) across the vegetated area for the period 2000-2006, consistent with the results of the EC-LUE model (109.39±1.48 Pg C year(-1)). To evaluate the uncertainty introduced by the parameter Vcmax, which represents the maximum photosynthetic capacity, we inversed Vcmax using Markov Chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures. Using the inversed Vcmax values, the simulated global GPP increased by 16.5 Pg C year(-1), indicating that IBIS model is sensitive to Vcmax, and large uncertainty exists in model parameterization.

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

2017-01-01

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is tomore » compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO 2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.« less

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

2017-10-01

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

DOE PAGES

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; ...

2017-10-23

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is tomore » compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO 2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.« less

Simulating Sources of Superstorm Plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching

2008-01-01

We evaluated the contributions to magnetospheric pressure (ring current) of the solar wind, polar wind, auroral wind, and plasmaspheric wind, with the surprising result that the main phase pressure is dominated by plasmaspheric protons. We used global simulation fields from the LFM single fluid ideal MHD model. We embedded the Comprehensive Ring Current Model within it, driven by the LFM transpolar potential, and supplied with plasmas at its boundary including solar wind protons, polar wind protons, auroral wind O+, and plasmaspheric protons. We included auroral outflows and acceleration driven by the LFM ionospheric boundary condition, including parallel ion acceleration driven by upward currents. Our plasmasphere model runs within the CRCM and is driven by it. Ionospheric sources were treated using our Global Ion Kinetics code based on full equations of motion. This treatment neglects inertial loading and pressure exerted by the ionospheric plasmas, and will be superceded by multifluid simulations that include those effects. However, these simulations provide new insights into the respective role of ionospheric sources in storm-time magnetospheric dynamics.

TOPEX/POSEIDON - Mapping the ocean surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yamarone, C. A.; Rosell, S.; Farless, D. L.

1986-01-01

Global efforts are under way to model the earth as a complete planet so that weather patterns may be predicted on time scales of months and years. A major limitation in developing models of global weather is the inability to model the circulation of the oceans including the geostrophic surface currents. NASA will soon be initiating a satellite program to correct this deficiency by directly measuring these currents using the science of radar altimetry. Measurement of the ocean topography with broad, frequent coverage of all ocean basins for a long period of time will allow the derivation of the spatial and temporal behavior of surface ocean currents. The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission is a cooperative effort between NASA and the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales. This paper describes the goals of this research mission, the data type to be acquired, the satellite and sensors to be used to acquire the data, and the methods by which the data are to be processed and utilized.

Continental-Scale Evaluation of Assimilated Soil Moisture Retrievals From the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture is a fundamental data source used in crop growth stage and crop stress models developed by the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service for global crop estimation. USDA’s International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) of the Office of Global Analysis (OGA). Currently, the PECAD DSS utiliz...

Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Dan

1990-01-01

Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) Overview and Updates: DOLWG Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Patrick

2017-01-01

What is Earth-GRAM (Global Reference Atmospheric Model): Provides monthly mean and standard deviation for any point in atmosphere - Monthly, Geographic, and Altitude Variation; Earth-GRAM is a C++ software package - Currently distributed as Earth-GRAM 2016; Atmospheric variables included: pressure, density, temperature, horizontal and vertical winds, speed of sound, and atmospheric constituents; Used by engineering community because of ability to create dispersions in atmosphere at a rapid runtime - Often embedded in trajectory simulation software; Not a forecast model; Does not readily capture localized atmospheric effects.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

PubMed Central

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackerras, D.; Darvenzia, M.; Orville, R. E.; Williams, E. R.; Goodman, S. J.

1999-01-01

A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-02-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

PubMed

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

DOE PAGES

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; ...

2017-01-23

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

Persistence of Soil Organic Carbon can be Explained as an Emergent Property of Microbial Ecology and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, D.; Lehmann, J.

2016-12-01

The exchange of carbon between soils and the atmosphere represents an important uncertainty in climate predictions. Current Earth system models apply soil organic matter (SOM) models based on independent carbon pools with 1st order decomposition dynamics. It has been widely argued over the last decade that such models do not accurately describe soil processes and mechanisms. For example, the long term persistence of soil organic carbon (SOC) is only adequately described by such models by the post hoc assumption of passive or inert carbon pools. Further, such 1st order models also fail to account for microbially-mediated dynamics such as priming interactions. These shortcomings may limit their applicability to long term predictions under conditions of global environmental change. In addition to incorporating recent conceptual advances in the mechanisms of SOM decomposition and protection, next-generation SOM models intended for use in Earth system models need to meet further quality criteria. Namely, that they should (a) accurately describe historical data from long term trials and the current global distribution of soil organic carbon, (b) be computationally efficient for large number of iterations involved in climate modeling, and (c) have sufficiently simple parameterization that they can be run on spatially-explicit data available at global scale under varying conditions of global change over long time scales. Here we show that linking fundamental ecological principles and microbial population dynamics to SOC turnover rates results in a dynamic model that meets all of these quality criteria. This approach simultaneously eliminates the need to postulate biogeochemically-implausible passive or inert pools, instead showing how SOM persistence emerges from ecological principles, while also reproducing observed priming interactions.

Space Observations for Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasool, S. I.

1991-01-01

There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

How well do basic models describe the turbidity currents coming down Monterey and Congo Canyon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartigny, M.; Simmons, S.; Heerema, C.; Xu, J. P.; Azpiroz, M.; Clare, M. A.; Cooper, C.; Gales, J. A.; Maier, K. L.; Parsons, D. R.; Paull, C. K.; Sumner, E. J.; Talling, P.

2017-12-01

Turbidity currents rival rivers in their global capacity to transport sediment and organic carbon. Furthermore, turbidity currents break submarine cables that now transport >95% of our global data traffic. Accurate turbidity current models are thus needed to quantify their transport capacity and to predict the forces exerted on seafloor structures. Despite this need, existing numerical models are typically only calibrated with scaled-down laboratory measurements due to the paucity of direct measurements of field-scale turbidity currents. This lack of calibration thus leaves much uncertainty in the validity of existing models. Here we use the most detailed observations of turbidity currents yet acquired to validate one of the most fundamental models proposed for turbidity currents, the modified Chézy model. Direct measurements on which the validation is based come from two sites that feature distinctly different flow modes and grain sizes. The first are from the multi-institution Coordinated Canyon Experiment (CCE) in Monterey Canyon, California. An array of six moorings along the canyon axis captured at least 15 flow events that lasted up to hours. The second is the deep-sea Congo Canyon, where 10 finer grained flows were measured by a single mooring, each lasting several days. Moorings captured depth-resolved velocity and suspended sediment concentration at high resolution (<30 second) for each of the 25 events. We use both datasets to test the most basic model available for turbidity currents; the modified Chézy model. This basic model has been very useful for river studies over the past 200 years, as it provides a rapid estimate of how flow velocity varies with changes in river level and energy slope. Chézy-type models assume that the gravitational force of the flow equals the friction of the river-bed. Modified Chézy models have been proposed for turbidity currents. However, the absence of detailed measurements of friction and sediment concentration within full-scale turbidity currents has forced modellers to make rough assumptions for these parameters. Here we use mooring data to deduce observation-based relations that can replace the previous assumptions. This improvement will significantly enhance the model predictions and allow us to better constrain the behaviour of turbidity currents.

Coupled storm-time magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere simulations including microscopic ionospheric turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkin, V. G.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Zhang, B.; Liu, J.; Wang, W.; Dimant, Y. S.; Oppenheim, M. M.; Lyon, J.

2017-12-01

During geomagnetic storms the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system becomes activated in ways that are unique to disturbed conditions. This leads to emergence of physical feedback loops that provide tighter coupling between the system elements, often operating across disparate spatial and temporal scales. One such process that has recently received renewed interest is the generation of microscopic ionospheric turbulence in the electrojet regions (electrojet turbulence, ET) that results from strong convective electric fields imposed by the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. ET leads to anomalous electron heating and generation of non-linear Pedersen current - both of which result in significant increases in effective ionospheric conductances. This, in turn, provides strong non-linear feedback on the magnetosphere. Recently, our group has published two studies aiming at a comprehensive analysis of the global effects of this microscopic process on the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In one study, ET physics was incorporated in the TIEGCM model of the ionosphere-thermosphere. In the other study, ad hoc corrections to the ionospheric conductances based on ET theory were incorporated in the conductance module of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global magnetosphere model. In this presentation, we make the final step toward the full coupling of the microscopic ET physics within our global coupled model including LFM, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) and TIEGCM. To this end, ET effects are incorporated in the TIEGCM model and propagate throughout the system via thus modified TIEGCM conductances. The March 17, 2013 geomagnetic storm is used as a testbed for these fully coupled simulations, and the results of the model are compared with various ionospheric and magnetospheric observatories, including DMSP, AMPERE, and Van Allen Probes. Via these comparisons, we investigate, in particular, the ET effects on the global magnetosphere indicators such as the strength of the ionospheric convection, field-aligned current densities and ring current pressure amplitude and distribution.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 overrides the historical legacy of multiple stable biome states in Africa.

PubMed

Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Bond, William J; Higgins, Steven I

2014-02-01

The dominant vegetation over much of the global land surface is not predetermined by contemporary climate, but also influenced by past environmental conditions. This confounds attempts to predict current and future biome distributions, because even a perfect model would project multiple possible biomes without knowledge of the historical vegetation state. Here we compare the distribution of tree- and grass-dominated biomes across Africa simulated using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). We explicitly evaluate where and under what conditions multiple stable biome states are possible for current and projected future climates. Our simulation results show that multiple stable biomes states are possible for vast areas of tropical and subtropical Africa under current conditions. Widespread loss of the potential for multiple stable biomes states is projected in the 21st Century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 . Many sites where currently both tree-dominated and grass-dominated biomes are possible become deterministically tree-dominated. Regions with multiple stable biome states are widespread and require consideration when attempting to predict future vegetation changes. Testing for behaviour characteristic of systems with multiple stable equilibria, such as hysteresis and dependence on historical conditions, and the resulting uncertainty in simulated vegetation, will lead to improved projections of global change impacts. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Mesoscale Numerical Simulations of the IAS Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooers, C. N.; Ko, D.

2008-05-01

Real-time nowcasts and forecasts of the IAS circulation have been made for several years with mesoscale resolution using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) implemented for the IAS. It is commonly called IASNFS and is driven by the lower resolution Global NCOM on the open boundaries, synoptic atmospheric forcing obtained from the Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and assimilated satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies and sea surface temperature. Here, examples of the model output are demonstrated; e.g., Gulf of Mexico Loop Current eddy shedding events and the meandering Caribbean Current jet and associated eddies. Overall, IASNFS is ready for further analysis, application to a variety of studies, and downscaling to even higher resolution shelf models. Its output fields are available online through NOAA's National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), located at the Stennis Space Center.

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Inferring electric fields and currents from ground magnetometer data - A test with theoretically derived inputs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolf, R. A.; Kamide, Y.

1983-01-01

Advanced techniques considered by Kamide et al. (1981) seem to have the potential for providing observation-based high time resolution pictures of the global ionospheric current and electric field patterns for interesting events. However, a reliance on the proposed magnetogram-inversion schemes for the deduction of global ionospheric current and electric field patterns requires proof that reliable results are obtained. 'Theoretical' tests of the accuracy of the magnetogram inversion schemes have, therefore, been considered. The present investigation is concerned with a test, involving the developed KRM algorithm and the Rice Convection Model (RCM). The test was successful in the sense that there was overall agreement between electric fields and currents calculated by the RCM and KRM schemes.

Wave Propagation in Non-Stationary Statistical Mantle Models at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meschede, M.; Romanowicz, B. A.

2014-12-01

We study the effect of statistically distributed heterogeneities that are smaller than the resolution of current tomographic models on seismic waves that propagate through the Earth's mantle at teleseismic distances. Current global tomographic models are missing small-scale structure as evidenced by the failure of even accurate numerical synthetics to explain enhanced coda in observed body and surface waveforms. One way to characterize small scale heterogeneity is to construct random models and confront observed coda waveforms with predictions from these models. Statistical studies of the coda typically rely on models with simplified isotropic and stationary correlation functions in Cartesian geometries. We show how to construct more complex random models for the mantle that can account for arbitrary non-stationary and anisotropic correlation functions as well as for complex geometries. Although this method is computationally heavy, model characteristics such as translational, cylindrical or spherical symmetries can be used to greatly reduce the complexity such that this method becomes practical. With this approach, we can create 3D models of the full spherical Earth that can be radially anisotropic, i.e. with different horizontal and radial correlation functions, and radially non-stationary, i.e. with radially varying model power and correlation functions. Both of these features are crucial for a statistical description of the mantle in which structure depends to first order on the spherical geometry of the Earth. We combine different random model realizations of S velocity with current global tomographic models that are robust at long wavelengths (e.g. Meschede and Romanowicz, 2014, GJI submitted), and compute the effects of these hybrid models on the wavefield with a spectral element code (SPECFEM3D_GLOBE). We finally analyze the resulting coda waves for our model selection and compare our computations with observations. Based on these observations, we make predictions about the strength of unresolved small-scale structure and extrinsic attenuation.

Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

2017-12-01

Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Fanwei; Collatz, George James; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2013-01-01

Satellite observations of surface reflected solar radiation contain informationabout variability in the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Understanding thecauses of variability is important for models that use these data to drive land surface fluxesor for benchmarking prognostic vegetation models. Here we evaluated the interannualvariability in the new 30.5-year long global satellite-derived surface reflectance index data,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index(GIMMS NDVI3g). Pearsons correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression analyseswere applied to quantify the NDVI interannual variability driven by climate anomalies, andto evaluate the effects of potential interference (snow, aerosols and clouds) on the NDVIsignal. We found ecologically plausible strong controls on NDVI variability by antecedent precipitation and current monthly temperature with distinct spatial patterns. Precipitation correlations were strongest for temperate to tropical water limited herbaceous systemswhere in some regions and seasons 40 of the NDVI variance could be explained byprecipitation anomalies. Temperature correlations were strongest in northern mid- to-high-latitudes in the spring and early summer where up to 70 of the NDVI variance was explained by temperature anomalies. We find that, in western and central North America,winter-spring precipitation determines early summer growth while more recent precipitation controls NDVI variability in late summer. In contrast, current or prior wetseason precipitation anomalies were correlated with all months of NDVI in sub-tropical herbaceous vegetation. Snow, aerosols and clouds as well as unexplained phenomena still account for part of the NDVI variance despite corrections. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that GIMMS NDVI3g represents real responses of vegetation to climate variability that are useful for global models.

A New Era in Geodesy and Cartography: Implications for Landing Site Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duxbury, T. C.

2001-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) global dataset has ushered in a new era for Mars local and global geodesy and cartography. These data include the global digital terrain model (Digital Terrain Model (DTM) radii), the global digital elevation model (Digital Elevation Model (DEM) elevation with respect to the geoid), and the higher spatial resolution individual MOLA ground tracks. Currently there are about 500,000,000 MOLA points and this number continues to grow as MOLA continues successful operations in orbit about Mars, the combined processing of radiometric X-band Doppler and ranging tracking of MGS together with millions of MOLA orbital crossover points has produced global geodetic and cartographic control having a spatial (latitude/longitude) accuracy of a few meters and a topographic accuracy of less than 1 meter. This means that the position of an individual MOLA point with respect to the center-of-mass of Mars is know to an absolute accuracy of a few meters. The positional accuracy of this point in inertial space over time is controlled by the spin rate uncertainty of Mars which is less than 1 km over 10 years that will be improved significantly with the next landed mission.

Effects of including electrojet turbulence in LFM-RCM simulations of geospace storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheim, M. M.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Merkin, V. G.; Zhang, B.; Toffoletto, F.; Wang, W.; Lyon, J.; Liu, J.; Dimant, Y. S.

2016-12-01

Global geospace system simulations need to incorporate nonlinear and small-scale physical processes in order to accurately model storms and other intense events. During times of strong magnetospheric disturbances, large-amplitude electric fields penetrate from the Earth's magnetosphere to the E-region ionosphere where they drive Farley-Buneman instabilities (FBI) that create small-scale plasma density turbulence. This induces nonlinear currents and leads to anomalous electron heating. Current global Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (MIT) models disregard these effects by assuming simple laminar ionospheric currents. This paper discusses the effects of incorporating accurate turbulent conductivities into MIT models. Recently, we showed in Liu et al. (2016) that during storm-time, turbulence increases the electron temperatures and conductivities more than precipitation. In this talk, we present the effect of adding these effects to the combined Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global MHD magnetosphere simulator and the Rice Convection Model (RCM). The LFM combines a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the magnetosphere with a 2D electrostatic solution of the ionosphere. The RCM uses drift physics to accurately model the inner magnetosphere, including a storm enhanced ring current. The LFM and coupled LFM-RCM simulations have previously shown unrealistically high cross-polar-cap potentials during strong solar wind driving conditions. We have recently implemented an LFM module that modifies the ionospheric conductivity to account for FBI driven anomalous electron heating and non-linear cross-field current enhancements as a function of the predicted ionospheric electric field. We have also improved the LFM-RCM code by making it capable of handling dipole tilts and asymmetric ionospheric solutions. We have tested this new LFM version by simulating the March 17, 2013 geomagnetic storm. These simulations showed a significant reduction in the cross-polar-cap potential during the strongest driving conditions, significant increases in the ionospheric conductivity in the auroral oval, and better agreement with DMSP observations of sub-auroral polarization streams. We conclude that accurate MIT simulations of geospace storms require the inclusion of turbulent conductivities.

Incorporation of UK Met Office's radiation scheme into CPTEC's global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagas, Júlio C. S.; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.

2009-03-01

Current parameterization of radiation in the CPTEC's (Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil) operational AGCM has its origins in the work of Harshvardhan et al. (1987) and uses the formulation of Ramaswamy and Freidenreich (1992) for the short-wave absorption by water vapor. The UK Met Office's radiation code (Edwards and Slingo, 1996) was incorporated into CPTEC's global model, initially for short-wave only, and some impacts of that were shown by Chagas and Barbosa (2006). Current paper presents some impacts of the complete incorporation (both short-wave and long-wave) of UK Met Office's scheme. Selected results from off-line comparisons with line-by-line benchmark calculations are shown. Impacts on the AGCM's climate are assessed by comparing output of climate runs of current and modified AGCM with products from GEWEX/SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project.

Coupled Global-Regional Climate Model Simulations of Future Changes in Hydrology over Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, R. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Hernandez, J. L.; Irwin, D.

2005-12-01

Central America covers a relatively small area, but is topographically very complex, has long coast-lines, large inland bodies of water, and very diverse land cover which is both natural and human-induced. As a result, Central America is plagued by hydrologic extremes, especially major flooding and drought events, in a region where many people still barely manage to eke out a living through subsistence. Therefore, considerable concern exists about whether these extreme events will change, either in magnitude or in number, as climate changes in the future. To address this concern, we have used global climate model simulations of future climate change to drive a regional climate model centered on Central America. We use the IPCC `business as usual' scenario 21st century run made with the NCAR CCSM3 global model to drive the regional model MM5 at 12 km resolution. We chose the `business as usual' scenario to focus on the largest possible changes that are likely to occur. Because we are most interested in near-term changes, our simulations are for the years 2010, 2015, and 2025. A long `present-day run (for 2005) allows us to distinguish between climate variability and any signal due to climate change. Furthermore, a multi-year run with MM5 forced by NCEP reanalyses allows an assessment of how well the coupled global-regional model performs over Central America. Our analyses suggest that the coupled model does a credible job simulating the current climate and hydrologic regime, though lack of sufficient observations strongly complicates this comparison. The suite of model runs for the future years is currently nearing completion, and key results will be presented at the meeting.

Wave and Wind Model Performance Metrics Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. K.; Wang, D. W.

2016-02-01

Continual improvements and upgrades of Navy ocean wave and wind models are essential to the assurance of battlespace environment predictability of ocean surface wave and surf conditions in support of Naval global operations. Thus, constant verification and validation of model performance is equally essential to assure the progress of model developments and maintain confidence in the predictions. Global and regional scale model evaluations may require large areas and long periods of time. For observational data to compare against, altimeter winds and waves along the tracks from past and current operational satellites as well as moored/drifting buoys can be used for global and regional coverage. Using data and model runs in previous trials such as the planned experiment, the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real Time (DART), we demonstrated the use of accumulated altimeter wind and wave data over several years to obtain an objective evaluation of the performance the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model running in the Adriatic Sea. The assessment provided detailed performance of wind and wave models by using cell-averaged statistical variables maps with spatial statistics including slope, correlation, and scatter index to summarize model performance. Such a methodology is easily generalized to other regions and at global scales. Operational technology currently used by subject matter experts evaluating the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model can be expanded to evaluate wave and wind models using tools developed for ArcMAP, a GIS application developed by ESRI. Recent inclusion of altimeter and buoy data into a format through the Naval Oceanographic Office's (NAVOCEANO) quality control system and the netCDF standards applicable to all model output makes it possible for the fusion of these data and direct model verification. Also, procedures were developed for the accumulation of match-ups of modelled and observed parameters to form a data base with which statistics are readily calculated, for the short or long term. Such a system has potential for a quick transition to operations at NAVOCEANO.

Particle swarm optimization and its application in MEG source localization using single time sliced data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Juan; Liu, Chenglian; Guo, Yongning

2014-10-01

The estimation of neural active sources from the magnetoencephalography (MEG) data is a very critical issue for both clinical neurology and brain functions research. A widely accepted source-modeling technique for MEG involves calculating a set of equivalent current dipoles (ECDs). Depth in the brain is one of difficulties in MEG source localization. Particle swarm optimization(PSO) is widely used to solve various optimization problems. In this paper we discuss its ability and robustness to find the global optimum in different depths of the brain when using single equivalent current dipole (sECD) model and single time sliced data. The results show that PSO is an effective global optimization to MEG source localization when given one dipole in different depths.

Global distributions of ionospheric electric potentials for variable IMF conditions: climatology and near-real time specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartalev, M. D.; Papitashvili, V. O.; Keremidarska, V. I.; Grigorov, K. G.; Romanov, D. K.

2002-03-01

We report a study of global climatology in the ionospheric electric potentials obtained from combining two algorithms used for mapping of high- and middle/low latitude ionospheric electrodynamics: the LiMIE (http://www.sprl.umich.edu/mist/limie.html) and IMEH (http://geospace.nat.bg) models, respectively. In this combination, the latter model utilizes high-latitude field-aligned current distributions provided by LiMIE for various IMF conditions and different seasons (summer, winter, equinox). For the testing purposes, we developed a Web-based interface which provides global distributions of the ionospheric electric potential in near-real time utilizing solar wind observations made onboard the NASA's ACE spacecraft upstream at L1. We discuss the electric potential global modeling over both the northern and southern hemispheres and consider some implications for the solar cycle studies and space weather forecasting.

Large-Scale Variation in Forest Carbon Turnover Rate and its Relation to Climate - Remote Sensing vs. Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.

2015-12-01

While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing.

Generalized Kähler geometry and current algebras in classical N=2 superconformal WZW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkhomenko, S. E.

2018-04-01

I examine the Generalized Kähler (GK) geometry of classical N = (2, 2) superconformal WZW model on a compact group and relate the right-moving and left-moving Kac-Moody superalgebra currents to the GK geometry data using biholomorphic gerbe formulation and Hamiltonian formalism. It is shown that the canonical Poisson homogeneous space structure induced by the GK geometry of the group manifold is crucial to provide N = (2, 2) superconformal σ-model with the Kac-Moody superalgebra symmetries. Then, the biholomorphic gerbe geometry is used to prove that Kac-Moody superalgebra currents are globally defined.

Tropospheric ozone simulated by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Lin, J.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-12-01

Current global chemical transport models are limited by horizontal resolutions (100-500 km), and they cannot capture small-scale processes affecting tropospheric ozone (O3). Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of GEOS-Chem to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (~ 200 km) and its three nested models (~ 50 km) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68 and reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO and MOZAIC data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5%), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of the nonlinear ozone chemistry, including but not limited to urban-rural contrast. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5% with enhancements by 5% in lifetimes of methyl chloroform and methane, bringing them closer to observation-based estimates. Therefore improving model representations of small-scale processes are a critical step forward to understanding the global tropospheric chemistry.

Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

PubMed Central

Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

Supporting International Applicants and Promoting an Ethical Model of Global College Admission

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redding, Alexis Brooke

2013-01-01

This article examines the challenges facing the pool of global applicants to US colleges and evaluates the practices of the internationaI IECs who currently fill the void that exists between applicants and admission officers. The author, is a doctoral student at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, where she researches ethical issues in…

Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hansen; Ronald P. Neilson; Virginia H. Dale; Curtis H. Flather; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Currie; Sarah Shafer; Rosamonde Cook; Partick J. Bartlein

2001-01-01

This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may...

Global Warming and the Neglected Greenhouse Gas: A Cross-National Study of the Social Causes of Methane Emissions Intensity, 1995

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jorgenson, Andrew

2006-01-01

The human dimensions of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming attract considerable attention in macrosociology. However, cross-national analyses generally neglect greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide. The current study addresses this paucity through the testing of theoretically derived models for the social structural causes of the…

Global Rankings in the Nordic Region: Challenging the Identity of Research-Intensive Universities?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elken, Mari; Hovdhaugen, Elisabeth; Stensaker, Bjørn

2016-01-01

Global university rankings currently attract considerable attention, and it is often assumed that such rankings may cause universities to prioritize activities and outcomes that will have a positive effect in their ranking position. A possible consequence of this could be the spread of a particular model of an "ideal" university. This…

Out of the Frying Pan: Into the Fire of Post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) University Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Peter

2013-01-01

A downturn in enrolments of international students following the Global Financial Crisis is causing publicised stress among Australian universities that have come to rely on associated income. How to survive the financial consequences is currently receiving urgent attention within the sector. This paper models the problem of developing responses…

Local interconnection neural networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang Jiajun; Zhang Li; Yan Dapen

1993-06-01

The idea of a local interconnection neural network (LINN) is presentd and compared with the globally interconnected Hopfield model. Under the storage limit requirement, LINN is shown to offer the same associative memory capability as the global interconnection neural network while having a much smaller interconnection matrix. LINN can be readily implemented optically using the currently available spatial light modulators. 15 refs.

MODEL HARMONIZATION POTENTIAL AND BENEFITS

EPA Science Inventory

The IPCS Harmonization Project, which is currently ongoing under the auspices of the WHO, in the context of chemical risk assessment or exposure modeling, does not imply global standardization. Instead, harmonization is thought of as an effort to strive for consistency among appr...

: “Developing Regional Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas”

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate models (GCMs) are currently used to obtain information about future changes in the large-scale climate. However, such simulations are typically done at coarse spatial resolutions, with model grid boxes on the order of 100 km on a horizontal side. Therefore, techniq...

INVERSE MODELING TO ESTIMATE NH3 EMISSION SEASONALLY AND THE SENSITIVITY TO UNCERTAINTY REPRESENTATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Inverse modeling has been used extensively on the global scale to produce top-down estimates of emissions for chemicals such as CO and CH4. Regional scale air quality studies could also benefit from inverse modeling as a tool to evaluate current emission inventories; however, ...

Fast Magnetotail Reconnection: Challenge to Global MHD Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Toth, G.; de Zeeuw, D.; Gombosi, T.

2005-05-01

Representation of fast magnetotail reconnection rates during substorm onset is one of the major challenges to global MHD modeling. Our previous comparative study of collisionless magnetic reconnection in GEM Challenge geometry demonstrated that the reconnection rate is controlled by ion nongyrotropic behavior near the reconnection site and that it can be described in terms of nongyrotropic corrections to the magnetic induction equation. To further test the approach we performed MHD simulations with nongyrotropic corrections of forced reconnection for the Newton Challenge setup. As a next step we employ the global MHD code BATSRUS and test different methods to model fast magnetotail reconnection rates by introducing non-ideal corrections to the induction equation in terms of nongyrotropic corrections, spatially localized resistivity, or current dependent resistivity. The BATSRUS adaptive grid structure allows to perform global simulations with spatial resolution near the reconnection site comparable with spatial resolution of local MHD simulations for the Newton Challenge. We select solar wind conditions which drive the accumulation of magnetic field in the tail lobes and subsequent magnetic reconnection and energy release. Testing the ability of global MHD models to describe magnetotail evolution during substroms is one of the elements of science based validation efforts at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

A Global Ocean Tide Model From TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry: GOT99.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

1999-01-01

Goddard Ocean Tide model GOT99.2 is a new solution for the amplitudes and phases of the global oceanic tides, based on over six years of sea-surface height measurements by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Comparison with deep-ocean tide-gauge measurements show that this new tidal solution is an improvement over previous global models, with accuracies for the main semidiurnal lunar constituent M2 now below 1.5 cm (deep water only). The new solution benefits from use of prior hydrodynamic models, several in shallow and inland seas as well as the global finite-element model FES94.1. This report describes some of the data processing details involved in handling the altimetry, and it provides a comprehensive set of global cotidal charts of the resulting solutions. Various derived tidal charts are also provided, including tidal loading deformation charts, tidal gravimetric charts, and tidal current velocity (or transport) charts. Finally, low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients are computed by numerical quadrature and are tabulated for the major short-period tides; these are useful for a variety of geodetic and geophysical purposes, especially in combination with similar estimates from satellite laser ranging.

Modelling of Criegee Intermediates using the 3-D global model, STOCHEM-CRI and investigating their global impacts on Secondary Organic Aerosol formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M. Anwar H.; Cooke, Michael; Utembe, Steve; Archibald, Alexander; Derwent, Richard; Jenkin, Mike; Lyons, Kyle; Kent, Adam; Percival, Carl; Shallcross, Dudley E.

2016-04-01

Gas phase reactions of ozone with unsaturated compounds form stabilized Criegee intermediates (sCI) which play an important role in controlling the budgets of many tropospheric species including OH, organic acids and secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Recently sCI has been proposed to play a significant role in atmospheric sulfate and nitrate chemistry by forming sulfuric acid (promoter of aerosol formation) and nitrate radical (a powerful oxidizing agent). sCI can also undergo association reactions with water, alcohols, and carboxylic acids to form hydroperoxides and with aldehydes and ketones to form secondary ozonides. The products from these reactions are low volatility compounds which can contribute to the formation of SOA. The importance of plant emitted alkenes (isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes) in the production of SOA through sCI formation have already been investigated in laboratory studies. However, the SOA formation from these reactions are absent in current global models. Thus, the formation of SOA has been incorporated in the global model, STOCHEM-CRI, a 3-D global chemistry transport model and the role of CI chemistry in controlling atmospheric composition and climate, and the influence of water vapor has been discussed in the study.

Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

2013-05-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

PubMed

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Imaging plasmas at the Earth and other planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D. G.

2006-05-01

The field of space physics, both at Earth and at other planets, was for decades a science based on local observations. By stitching together measurements of plasmas and fields from multiple locations either simultaneously or for similar conditions over time, and by comparing those measurements against models of the physical systems, great progress was made in understanding the physics of Earth and planetary magnetospheres, ionospheres, and their interactions with the solar wind. However, the pictures of the magnetospheres were typically statistical, and the large-scale global models were poorly constrained by observation. This situation changed dramatically with global auroral imaging, which provided snapshots and movies of the effects of field aligned currents and particle precipitation over the entire auroral oval during quiet and disturbed times. And with the advent of global energetic neutral atom (ENA) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imaging, global constraints have similarly been added to ring current and plasmaspheric models, respectively. Such global constraints on global models are very useful for validating the physics represented in those models, physics of energy and momentum transport, electric and magnetic field distribution, and magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. These techniques are also proving valuable at other planets. For example with Hubble Space Telescope imaging of Jupiter and Saturn auroras, and ENA imaging at Jupiter and Saturn, we are gaining new insights into the magnetic fields, gas-plasma interactions, magnetospheric dynamics, and magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling at the giant planets. These techniques, especially ENA and EUV imaging, rely on very recent and evolving technological capabilities. And because ENA and EUV techniques apply to optically thin media, interpretation of their measurements require sophisticated inversion procedures, which are still under development. We will discuss the directions new developments in imaging are taking, what technologies and mission scenarios might best take advantage of them, and how our understanding of the Earth's and other planets' plasma environments may benefit from such advancements.

Global models for synthetic fuels planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamontagne, J.

1983-10-01

This study was performed to identify the set of existing global models with the best potential for use in the US Synthetic Fuels Corporation's strategic planning process, and to recommend the most appropriate model. The study was limited to global models with representations that encompass time horizons beyond the year 2000, multiple fuel forms, and significant regional detail. Potential accessibility to the Synthetic Fuels Corporation and adequate documentation were also required. Four existing models (LORENDAS, WIM, IIASA, and IEA/ORAU) were judged to be the best candidates for the SFC's use at this time; none of the models appears to bemore » ideal for the SFC's purposes. On the basis of currently available information, the most promising short-term option open to the SFC is the use of LORENDAS, with careful attention to definition of alternative energy demand scenarios. Longer-term options which deserve further study are coupling LORENDAS with an explicit model of energy demand, and modification of the IEA/ORAU model to include finer time-period definition and additional technological detail.« less

Spatial Representativeness Error in the Ground-Level Observation Networks for Black Carbon Radiation Absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Andrews, Elisabeth; Balkanski, Yves; Boucher, Olivier; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Schulz, Michael; Schuster, Gregory L.; Valari, Myrto; Tao, Shu

2018-02-01

There is high uncertainty in the direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC), an aerosol that strongly absorbs solar radiation. The observation-constrained estimate, which is several times larger than the bottom-up estimate, is influenced by the spatial representativeness error due to the mesoscale inhomogeneity of the aerosol fields and the relatively low resolution of global chemistry-transport models. Here we evaluated the spatial representativeness error for two widely used observational networks (AErosol RObotic NETwork and Global Atmosphere Watch) by downscaling the geospatial grid in a global model of BC aerosol absorption optical depth to 0.1° × 0.1°. Comparing the models at a spatial resolution of 2° × 2° with BC aerosol absorption at AErosol RObotic NETwork sites (which are commonly located near emission hot spots) tends to cause a global spatial representativeness error of 30%, as a positive bias for the current top-down estimate of global BC direct radiative forcing. By contrast, the global spatial representativeness error will be 7% for the Global Atmosphere Watch network, because the sites are located in such a way that there are almost an equal number of sites with positive or negative representativeness error.

Next Generation Community Based Unified Global Modeling System Development and Operational Implementation Strategies at NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) has provided the unique opportunity to develop and implement a non-hydrostatic global model based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) Dynamic Core at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), making a leap-step advancement in seamless prediction capabilities across all spatial and temporal scales. Model development efforts are centralized with unified model development in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) infrastructure based on Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). A more sophisticated coupling among various earth system components is being enabled within NEMS following National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) standards. The eventual goal of unifying global and regional models will enable operational global models operating at convective resolving scales. Apart from the advanced non-hydrostatic dynamic core and coupling to various earth system components, advanced physics and data assimilation techniques are essential for improved forecast skill. NGGPS is spearheading ambitious physics and data assimilation strategies, concentrating on creation of a Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI). Both initiatives are expected to be community developed, with emphasis on research transitioning to operations (R2O). The unified modeling system is being built to support the needs of both operations and research. Different layers of community partners are also established with specific roles/responsibilities for researchers, core development partners, trusted super-users, and operations. Stakeholders are engaged at all stages to help drive the direction of development, resources allocations and prioritization. This talk presents the current and future plans of unified model development at NCEP for weather, sub-seasonal, and seasonal climate prediction applications with special emphasis on implementation of NCEP FV3 Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) into operations by 2019.

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

PubMed Central

Mertz, Ole; Frolking, Steve; Egelund Christensen, Andreas; Hurni, Kaspar; Sedano, Fernando; Parsons Chini, Louise; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Hansen, Matthew; Hurtt, George

2017-01-01

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing–based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes’ dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation at a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation—the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)—this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation. PMID:28886132

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heinimann, Andreas; Mertz, Ole; Frolking, Steve

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing-based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes' dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation atmore » a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21 st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation$-$the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)$-$this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation.« less

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

DOE PAGES

Heinimann, Andreas; Mertz, Ole; Frolking, Steve; ...

2017-09-08

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing-based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes' dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation atmore » a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21 st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation$-$the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)$-$this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation.« less

International Digital Elevation Model Service (IDEMS): A Revived IAG Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, K. M.; Hirt, C., , Dr; Kuhn, M.; Barzaghi, R.

2017-12-01

A newly developed International Digital Elevation Model Service (IDEMS) is now available under the umbrella of the International Gravity Field Service of the International Association of Geodesy. Hosted and operated by Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri) (http://www.esri.com/), the new IDEMS website is available at: https://idems.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html. IDEMS provides a focus for distribution of data and information about various digital elevation models, including spherical-harmonic models of Earth's global topography and lunar and planetary DEM. Related datasets, such as representation of inland water within DEMs, and relevant software which are available in the public domain are also provided. Currently, IDEMS serves as repository of links to providers of global terrain and bathymetry, terrain related Earth models and datasets such as digital elevation data services managed and maintained by Esri (Terrain and TopoBathy), Bedmap2-Ice thickness and subglacial topographic model of Antarctica and Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation ICESat/GLAS Data, as well as planetary terrain data provided by PDS Geosciences Node at Washington University, St. Louis. These services provide online access to a collection of multi-resolution and multi-source elevation and bathymetry data, including metadata and source information. In addition to IDEMS current holdings of terrestrial and planetary DEMs, some topography related products IDEMS may include in future are: dynamic ocean topography, 3D crustal density models, Earth's dynamic topography, etc. IDEMS may also consider terrain related products such as quality assessments, global terrain corrections, global height anomaly-to-geoid height corrections and other geodesy-relevant studies and products. IDEMS encourages contributions to the site from the geodetic community in any of the product types listed above. Please contact the authors if you would like to contribute or recommend content you think appropriate for IDEMS.

The Virtual Brain: Modeling Biological Correlates of Recovery after Chronic Stroke

PubMed Central

Falcon, Maria Inez; Riley, Jeffrey D.; Jirsa, Viktor; McIntosh, Anthony R.; Shereen, Ahmed D.; Chen, E. Elinor; Solodkin, Ana

2015-01-01

There currently remains considerable variability in stroke survivor recovery. To address this, developing individualized treatment has become an important goal in stroke treatment. As a first step, it is necessary to determine brain dynamics associated with stroke and recovery. While recent methods have made strides in this direction, we still lack physiological biomarkers. The Virtual Brain (TVB) is a novel application for modeling brain dynamics that simulates an individual’s brain activity by integrating their own neuroimaging data with local biophysical models. Here, we give a detailed description of the TVB modeling process and explore model parameters associated with stroke. In order to establish a parallel between this new type of modeling and those currently in use, in this work we establish an association between a specific TVB parameter (long-range coupling) that increases after stroke with metrics derived from graph analysis. We used TVB to simulate the individual BOLD signals for 20 patients with stroke and 10 healthy controls. We performed graph analysis on their structural connectivity matrices calculating degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and global efficiency. Linear regression analysis demonstrated that long-range coupling is negatively correlated with global efficiency (P = 0.038), but is not correlated with degree centrality or betweenness centrality. Our results suggest that the larger influence of local dynamics seen through the long-range coupling parameter is closely associated with a decreased efficiency of the system. We thus propose that the increase in the long-range parameter in TVB (indicating a bias toward local over global dynamics) is deleterious because it reduces communication as suggested by the decrease in efficiency. The new model platform TVB hence provides a novel perspective to understanding biophysical parameters responsible for global brain dynamics after stroke, allowing the design of focused therapeutic interventions. PMID:26579071

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

2014-05-01

Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water were not limiting.

Estimating multi-period global cost efficiency and productivity change of systems with network structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tohidnia, S.; Tohidi, G.

2018-02-01

The current paper develops three different ways to measure the multi-period global cost efficiency for homogeneous networks of processes when the prices of exogenous inputs are known at all time periods. A multi-period network data envelopment analysis model is presented to measure the minimum cost of the network system based on the global production possibility set. We show that there is a relationship between the multi-period global cost efficiency of network system and its subsystems, and also its processes. The proposed model is applied to compute the global cost Malmquist productivity index for measuring the productivity changes of network system and each of its process between two time periods. This index is circular. Furthermore, we show that the productivity changes of network system can be defined as a weighted average of the process productivity changes. Finally, a numerical example will be presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robock, Alan

2015-03-30

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates frommore » gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.« less

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Using a global ocean circulation model to conduct a preliminary risk assessment of oil spills in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Zoe; Popova, Katya; Hirschi, Joel; Coward, Andrew; Yool, Andrew; van Gennip, Simon; Anifowose, Babtunde; Harrington-Missin, Liam

2017-04-01

Although oil blowouts from deep-water drilling happen very rarely, they can cause catastrophic damage to the environment. Despite such potentially high impacts, relatively little research effort has gone into understanding subsurface oil plumes in the deep ocean. In this study, we demonstrate the significance of this problem and offer potential solutions using a novel approach based on a leading-edge, high-resolution global ocean circulation model. We present examples demonstrating: (a) the importance of ocean circulation in the propagation of oil spills; and (b) likely circulation footprints for oil spills at four key locations in the Atlantic Ocean that exist in different circulation regimes - the shelves of Brazil, the Gulf of Guinea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Faroe-Shetland Channel. In order to quantify the variability at each site on seasonal timescales, interannual timescales and at different depths, we utilize the Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD), which is a shape-distance metric that measures the similarity between two shapes. The scale of the footprints across the four focus locations varies considerably and is determined by the main circulation features in their vicinity. For example, the hypothetical oil plume can be affected by variations in the speed and location of a particular current (e.g. Brazil Current at the Brazilian shelf site) or be influenced by different currents entirely depending on the release depth, month and year (e.g. Angola Current or Southern Equatorial Current at the Gulf of Guinea site). Overall, our results demonstrate the need to use state of the art global, or basin-scale, ocean circulation models when assessing the environmental impacts of proposed oil drilling activities.

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

The UK Earth System Model project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yongming

2016-04-01

In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

Japan's efforts to promote global health using satellite remote sensing data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency for prediction of infectious diseases and air quality.

PubMed

Igarashi, Tamotsu; Kuze, Akihiko; Sobue, Shinichi; Yamamoto, Aya; Yamamoto, Kazuhide; Oyoshi, Kei; Imaoka, Keiji; Fukuda, Toru

2014-12-01

In this paper we review the status of new applications research of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) for global health promotion using information derived from Earth observation data by satellites in cooperation with inter-disciplinary collaborators. Current research effort at JAXA to promote global public health is focused primarily on the use of remote sensing to address two themes: (i) prediction models for malaria and cholera in Kenya, Africa; and (ii) air quality assessment of small, particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). Respiratory and cardivascular diseases constitute cross-boundary public health risk issues on a global scale. The authors report here on results of current of a collaborative research to call attention to the need to take preventive measures against threats to public health using newly arising remote sensing information from space.

Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2011-07-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoring and control activities to avoid disease vector establishment.

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elosegui, Pedro

2005-01-01

The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a large number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. A set of GPS error sources relevant to this project are those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined &om the analysis of GPS data, including possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference frames. This is were our research activities during this reporting period have concentrated. During this reporting period, we have researched two topics: (1) The effect of errors on the GPS satellite antenna models (or lack thereof) on global GPS vertical position and velocity estimates; (2) The effect of reference W e definition and practice on estimates of the geocenter variations.

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on a number of target regions. We demonstrate the use of impact models in these regions based on global GDP, population, and land use maps. In this application, we show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input datasets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish distributed estimates of GDP and asset exposure to flooding.

Assessment of the terrestrial water balance using the global water availability and use model WaterGAP - status and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller Schmied, Hannes; Döll, Petra

2017-04-01

The estimation of the World's water resources has a long tradition and numerous methods for quantification exists. The resulting numbers vary significantly, leaving room for improvement. Since some decades, global hydrological models (GHMs) are being used for large scale water budget assessments. GHMs are designed to represent the macro-scale hydrological processes and many of those models include human water management, e.g. irrigation or reservoir operation, making them currently the first choice for global scale assessments of the terrestrial water balance within the Anthropocene. The Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) is a model framework that comprises both the natural and human water dimension and is in development and application since the 1990s. In recent years, efforts were made to assess the sensitivity of water balance components to alternative climate forcing input data and, e.g., how this sensitivity is affected by WaterGAP's calibration scheme. This presentation shows the current best estimate of terrestrial water balance components as simulated with WaterGAP by 1) assessing global and continental water balance components for the climate period 1971-2000 and the IPCC reference period 1986-2005 for the most current WaterGAP version using a homogenized climate forcing data, 2) investigating variations of water balance components for a number of state-of-the-art climate forcing data and 3) discussing the benefit of the calibration approach for a better observation-data constrained global water budget. For the most current WaterGAP version 2.2b and a homogenized combination of the two WATCH Forcing Datasets, global scale (excluding Antarctica and Greenland) river discharge into oceans and inland sinks (Q) is assessed to be 40 000 km3 yr-1 for 1971-2000 and 39 200 km3 yr-1 for 1986-2005. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is close to each other with around 70 600 (70 700) km3 yr-1 as well as water consumption with 1000 (1100) km3 yr-1. The main reason for differing Q is varying precipitation (P, 111 600 km3 yr-1 vs. 110 900 km3 yr-1). The sensitivity of water balance components to alternative climate forcing data is high. Applying 5 state-of-the-art climate forcing data sets, long term average P differs globally by 8000 km3 yr-1, mainly due to different handling of precipitation undercatch correction (or neglecting it). AET differs by 5500 km3 yr-1 whereas Q varies by 3000 km3 yr-1. The sensitivity of human water consumption to alternative climate input data is only about 5%. WaterGAP's calibration approach forces simulated long-term river discharge to be approximately equal to observed values at 1319 gauging stations during the time period selected for calibration. This scheme greatly reduces the impact of uncertain climate input on simulated Q data in these upstream drainage basins (as well as downstream). In calibration areas, the Q variation among the climate input data is much lower (1.6%) than in non-calibrated areas (18.5%). However, variation of Q at the grid cell-level is still high (an average of 37% for Q in grid cells in calibration areas vs. 74% outside). Due to the closed water balance, variation of AET is higher in calibrated areas than in non-calibrated areas. Main challenges in assessing the world's water resources by GHMs like WaterGAP are 1) the need of consistent long-term climate forcing input data sets, especial considering a suitable handling of P undercatch, 2) the accessibility of in-situ data for river discharge or alternative calibration data for currently non-calibrated areas, and 3) an improved simulation in semi-arid and arid river basins. As an outlook, a multi-model, multi-forcing study of global water balance components within the frame of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project is proposed.

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis ratesmore » are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.« less

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

DOE PAGES

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2016-05-01

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis ratesmore » are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.« less

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis rates are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.

Hydrological Validation of The Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model - First Results and Required Actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberlandt, U.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W.

Dynamic global vegetation models are developed with the main purpose to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation at the global scale. Increasing concern about climate change impacts has put the focus of recent applications on the sim- ulation of the global carbon cycle. Water is a prime driver of biogeochemical and biophysical processes, thus an appropriate representation of the water cycle is crucial for their proper simulation. However, these models usually lack thorough validation of the water balance they produce. Here we present a hydrological validation of the current version of the LPJ (Lund- Potsdam-Jena) model, a dynamic global vegetation model operating at daily time steps. Long-term simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are compared to literature values, results from three global hydrological models, and discharge observations from various macroscale river basins. It was found that the seasonal and spatial patterns of the LPJ-simulated average values correspond well both with the measurements and the results from the stand-alone hy- drological models. However, a general underestimation of runoff occurs, which may be attributable to the low input dynamics of precipitation (equal distribution within a month), to the simulated vegetation pattern (potential vegetation without anthro- pogenic influence), and to some generalizations of the hydrological components in LPJ. Future research will focus on a better representation of the temporal variability of climate forcing, improved description of hydrological processes, and on the consider- ation of anthropogenic land use.

Development of an integrated chemical weather prediction system for environmental applications at meso to global scales: NMMB/BSC-CHEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorba, O.; Pérez, C.; Karsten, K.; Janjic, Z.; Dabdub, D.; Baldasano, J. M.

2009-09-01

This contribution presents the ongoing developments of a new fully on-line chemical weather prediction system for meso to global scale applications. The modeling system consists of a mineral dust module and a gas-phase chemistry module coupled on-line to a unified global-regional atmospheric driver. This approach allows solving small scale processes and their interactions at local to global scales. Its unified environment maintains the consistency of all the physico-chemical processes involved. The atmospheric driver is the NCEP/NMMB numerical weather prediction model (Janjic and Black, 2007) developed at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). It represents an evolution of the operational WRF-NMME model extending from meso to global scales. Its unified non-hydrostatic dynamical core supports regional and global simulations. The Barcelona Supercomputing Center is currently designing and implementing a chemistry transport model coupled online with the new global/regional NMMB. The new modeling system is intended to be a powerful tool for research and to provide efficient global and regional chemical weather forecasts at sub-synoptic and mesoscale resolutions. The online coupling of the chemistry follows the approach similar to that of the mineral dust module already coupled to the atmospheric driver, NMMB/BSC-DUST (Pérez et al., 2008). Chemical species are advected and mixed at the corresponding time steps of the meteorological tracers using the same numerical scheme. Advection is eulerian, positive definite and monotone. The chemical mechanism and chemistry solver is based on the Kinetic PreProcessor KPP (Damian et al., 2002) package with the main purpose of maintaining a wide flexibility when configuring the model. Such approach will allow using a simplified chemical mechanism for global applications or a more complete mechanism for high-resolution local or regional studies. Moreover, it will permit the implementation of a specific configuration for forecasting applications in regional or global domains. An emission process allows the coupling of different emission inventories sources such as RETRO, EDGAR and GEIA for the global domain, EMEP for Europe and HERMES for Spain. The photolysis scheme is based on the Fast-J scheme, coupled with physics of each model layer (e.g., aerosols, clouds, absorbers as ozone) and it considers grid-scale clouds from the atmospheric driver. The dry deposition scheme follows the deposition velocity analogy for gases, enabling the calculation of deposition fluxes from airborne concentrations. No cloud-chemistry processes are included in the system yet (no wet deposition, scavenging and aqueous chemistry). The modeling system developments will be presented and first results of the gas-phase chemistry at global scale will be discussed. REFERENCES Janjic, Z.I., and Black, T.L., 2007. An ESMF unified model for a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9, 05025. Pérez, C., Haustein, K., Janjic, Z.I., Jorba, O., Baldasano, J.M., Black, T.L., and Nickovic, S., 2008. An online dust model within the meso to global NMMB: current progress and plans. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, A41K-03, 2008. Damian, V., Sandu, A., Damian, M., Potra, F., and Carmichael, G.R., 2002. The kinetic preprocessor KPP - A software environment for solving chemical kinetics. Comp. Chem. Eng., 26, 1567-1579. Sandu, A., and Sander, R., 2006. Technical note:Simulating chemical systems in Fortran90 and Matlab with the Kinetic PreProcessor KPP-2.1. Atmos. Chem. and Phys., 6, 187-195.

A Review and Analysis of Remote Sensing Capability for Air Quality Measurements as a Potential Decision Support Tool Conducted by the NASA DEVELOP Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, A.; Richards, A.; Keith, K.; Frew, C.; Boseck, J.; Sutton, S.; Watts, C.; Rickman, D.

2007-01-01

This project focused on a comprehensive utilization of air quality model products as decision support tools (DST) needed for public health applications. A review of past and future air quality measurement methods and their uncertainty, along with the relationship of air quality to national and global public health, is vital. This project described current and future NASA satellite remote sensing and ground sensing capabilities and the potential for using these sensors to enhance the prediction, prevention, and control of public health effects that result from poor air quality. The qualitative uncertainty of current satellite remotely sensed air quality, the ground-based remotely sensed air quality, the air quality/public health model, and the decision making process is evaluated in this study. Current peer-reviewed literature suggests that remotely sensed air quality parameters correlate well with ground-based sensor data. A satellite remote-sensed and ground-sensed data complement is needed to enhance the models/tools used by policy makers for the protection of national and global public health communities

Simulation of multi-pulse coaxial helicity injection in the Sustained Spheromak Physics Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Bryan, J. B.; Romero-Talamás, C. A.; Woodruff, S.

2018-03-01

Nonlinear, numerical computation with the NIMROD code is used to explore magnetic self-organization during multi-pulse coaxial helicity injection in the Sustained Spheromak Physics eXperiment. We describe multiple distinct phases of spheromak evolution, starting from vacuum magnetic fields and the formation of the initial magnetic flux bubble through multiple refluxing pulses and the eventual onset of the column mode instability. Experimental and computational magnetic diagnostics agree on the onset of the column mode instability, which first occurs during the second refluxing pulse of the simulated discharge. Our computations also reproduce the injector voltage traces, despite only specifying the injector current and not explicitly modeling the external capacitor bank circuit. The computations demonstrate that global magnetic evolution is fairly robust to different transport models and, therefore, that a single fluid-temperature model is sufficient for a broader, qualitative assessment of spheromak performance. Although discharges with similar traces of normalized injector current produce similar global spheromak evolution, details of the current distribution during the column mode instability impact the relative degree of poloidal flux amplification and magnetic helicity content.

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal outlook while providing useful information to users and partners. We demonstrate the first version of an operational GloFAS seasonal outlook, outlining the model set-up and presenting a first look at the seasonal forecasts that will be displayed in the GloFAS interface, and discuss the initial results of the forecast evaluation.

Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Onofrio, Donatella; von Hardenberg, Jost; Baudena, Mara

2017-04-01

Many current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), including those incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs), are able to realistically reproduce the distribution of the most worldwide biomes. However, they display high uncertainty in predicting the forest, savanna and grassland distributions and the transitions between them in tropical areas. These biomes are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, and owing to their different biogeophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, future changes in their distributions could have also impacts on climate states. In particular, expected increasing temperature and CO2, modified precipitation regimes, as well as increasing land-use intensity could have large impacts on global biogeochemical cycles and precipitation, affecting the land-climate interactions. The difficulty of the DGVMs in simulating tropical vegetation, especially savanna structure and occurrence, has been associated with the way they represent the ecological processes and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic conditions. The inclusion of appropriate ecological mechanisms under present climatic conditions is essential for obtaining reliable future projections of vegetation and climate states. In this work we analyse observed relationships of tree and grass cover with climate and fire, and the current ecological understanding of the mechanisms driving the forest-savanna-grassland transition in Africa to evaluate the outcomes of a current state-of-the-art DGVM and to assess which ecological processes need to be included or improved within the model. Specifically, we analyse patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA global land cover map, comparing them with the outcomes of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, also used by the EC-Earth global climate model. The comparison analysis with the LPJ-GUESS simulations suggests possible improvements in the model representations of tree-grass competition for water and in the vegetation-fire interaction. The proposed method could be useful for evaluating DGVMs in tropical areas, especially in the phase of model setting-up, before the coupling with Earth System Models. This could help in improving the simulations of ecological processes and consequently of land-climate interactions.

Self-Consistent Ring Current Modeling with Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves in the Presence of Heavy Ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, George V.

2006-01-01

The self-consistent treatment of the RC ion dynamics and EMIC waves, which are thought to exert important influences on the ion dynamical evolution, is an important missing element in our understanding of the storm-and recovery-time ring current evolution. Under certain conditions, relativistic electrons, with energies 21 MeV, can be removed from the outer radiation belt by EMIC wave scattering during a magnetic storm. That is why the modeling of EMIC waves is critical and timely issue in magnetospheric physics. To describe the RC evolution itself this study uses the ring current-atmosphere interaction model (RAM). RAM solves the gyration and bounce-averaged Boltzmann-Landau equation inside of geosynchronous orbit. Originally developed at the University of Michigan, there are now several branches of this model currently in use as describe by Liemohn namely those at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center This study will generalize the self-consistent theoretical description of RC ions and EMIC waves that has been developed by Khazanov and include the heavy ions and propagation effects of EMIC waves in the global dynamic of self-consistent RC - EMIC waves coupling. The results of our newly developed model that will be presented at GEM meeting, focusing mainly on the dynamic of EMIC waves and comparison of these results with the previous global RC modeling studies devoted to EMIC waves formation. We also discuss RC ion precipitations and wave induced thermal electron fluxes into the ionosphere.

The Application of Jason-1 Measurements to Estimate the Global Near Surface Ocean Circulation for Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niiler, Peran P.

2004-01-01

The scientific objective of this research program was to utilize drifter, Jason-1 altimeter data and a variety of wind data for the determination of time mean and time variable wind driven surface currents of the global ocean. To accomplish this task has required the interpolation of 6-hourly winds on drifter tracks and the computation of the wind coherent motions of the drifters. These calculations showed that the Ekman current model proposed by Ralph and Niiler for the tropical Pacific was valid for all the oceans south of 40N latitude. Improvements to RN99 model were computed and poster presentations of the results were given in several ocean science venues, including the November 2004 GODAY meeting in St. Petersburg, FL.

Newer classification and regression tree techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for ecological prediction

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Andy Liaw; Andy Liaw

2006-01-01

We evaluated four statistical models - Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Bagging Trees (BT), Random Forests (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) - for predictive vegetation mapping under current and future climate scenarios according to the Canadian Climate Centre global circulation model.

EXPLAINING FOREST COMPOSITION AND BIOMASS ACROSS MULTIPLE BIOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Current scientific concerns regarding the impacts of global change include the responses of forest composition and biomass to rapid changes in climate, and forest gap models, have often been used to address this issue. These models reflect the concept that forest composition and...

Modeling the current and future role of particulate organic nitrates in the southeastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

Organic nitrates are an important aerosol constituent in locations where biogenic hydrocarbon emissions mix with anthropogenic NOx sources. While regional and global chemical transport models may include a representation of organic aerosol from monoterpene reactions with nitrate ...

What are the implications of rapid global warming for landslide-triggered turbidity current activity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clare, Michael; Peter, Talling; James, Hunt

2014-05-01

A geologically short-lived (~170kyr) episode of global warming occurred at ~55Ma, termed the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM). Global temperatures rose by up to 8oC over only ~10kyr and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle occurred; creating a negative carbon isotopic (~-4% δ13C) excursion in sedimentary records. This interval has relevance to study of future climate change and its influence on geohazards including submarine landslides and turbidity currents. We analyse the recurrence frequency of turbidity currents, potentially initiated from large-volume slope failures. The study focuses on two sedimentary intervals that straddle the IETM and we discuss implications for turbidity current triggering. We present the results of statistical analyses (regression, generalised linear model, and proportional hazards model) for extensive turbidite records from an outcrop at Zumaia in NE Spain (N=285; 54.0 to 56.5 Ma) and based on ODP site 1068 on the Iberian Margin (N=1571; 48.2 to 67.6 Ma). The sedimentary sequences provide clear differentiation between hemipelagic and turbiditic mud with only negligible evidence of erosion. We infer dates for turbidites by converting hemipelagic bed thicknesses to time using interval-averaged accumulation rates. Multi-proxy dating techniques provide good age constraint. The background trend for the Zumaia record shows a near-exponential distribution of turbidite recurrence intervals, while the Iberian Margin shows a log-normal response. This is interpreted to be related to regional time-independence (exponential) and the effects of additive processes (log-normal). We discuss how a log-normal response may actually be generated over geological timescales from multiple shorter periods of random turbidite recurrence. The IETM interval shows a dramatic departure from both these background trends, however. This is marked by prolonged hiatuses (0.1 and 0.6 Myr duration) in turbidity current activity in contrast to the arithmetic mean recurrence, λ, for the full records (λ=0.007 and 0.0125 Myr). This period of inactivity is coincident with a dramatic carbon isotopic excursion (i.e. warmest part of the IETM) and heavily skews statistical analyses for both records. Dramatic global warming appears to exert a strong control on inhibiting turbidity current activity; whereas the effects of sea level change are not shown to be statistically significant. Rapid global warming is often implicated as a potential landslide trigger, due to dissociation of gas hydrates in response to elevated ocean temperatures. Other studies have suggested that intense global warming may actually be attributed to the atmospheric release of gas hydrates following catastrophic failure of large parts of a continental slope. Either way, a greater intensity of landslide and resultant turbidity current activity would be expected during the IETM; however, our findings are to the contrary. We offer some explanations in relation to potential triggers. Our work suggests that previous rapid global warming at the IETM did not trigger more frequent turbidity currents. This has direct relevance to future assessments relating to landslide-triggered tsunami hazard, and breakage of subsea cables by turbidity currents.

Scientific Achievements of Global ENA Imaging and Future Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, P. C.; Stephens, G. K.; Hsieh, S. Y. W.; Demajistre, R.; Gkioulidou, M.

2017-12-01

Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imaging is the only technique that can capture the instantaneous global state of energetic ion distributions in planetary magnetospheres and from the heliosheath. In particular at Earth, ENA imaging has been used to diagnose the morphology and dynamics of the ring current and plasma sheet down to several minutes time resolution and is therefore a critical tool to validate global ring current physics models. However, this requires a detailed understanding for how ENAs are produced from the ring current and inversion techniques that are thoroughly validated against in-situ measurements. To date, several missions have carried out planetary and heliospheric ENA imaging including Cassini, JUICE, IBEX of the heliosphere, and POLAR, Astrid-1, Double Star, TWINS and IMAGE of the terrestrial magnetosphere. Because of their path-finding successes, a future global-imaging mission concept, MEDICI, has been recommended in the Heliophysics Decadal Survey. Its core mission consists of two satellites in one circular, near-polar orbit beyond the radiation belts at around 8 RE, with ENA, EUV and FUV cameras. This recommendation has driven the definition of smaller mission concepts that address specific science aspects of the MEDICI concept. In this presentation, we review the past scientific achievements of ENA imaging with a focus on the terrestrial magnetosphere from primarily the NASA IMAGE and the TWINS missions. The highlighted achievements include the storm, sub-storm and quiet-time morphology, dynamics and pitch-angle distributions of the ring current, global differential acceleration of protons versus O+ ions, the structure of the global electrical current systems associated with the plasma pressure of protons and O+ ions up to around 200 keV, and the relation between ring current and plasmasphere. We discuss the need for future global observations of the ring current, plasma sheet and magnetosheath ion distributions based and derive their measurement requirements, of which high-angular resolution (≤2˚) is critical. A significant aspect of the future science definition is the stability and accessibility of inversion algorithms that retrieve the 3D distribution from the 2D ENA images, that will also be discussed.

The Crossover Time as an Evaluation of Ocean Models Against Persistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, L. M.; Toumi, R.

2018-01-01

A new ocean evaluation metric, the crossover time, is defined as the time it takes for a numerical model to equal the performance of persistence. As an example, the average crossover time calculated using the Lagrangian separation distance (the distance between simulated trajectories and observed drifters) for the global MERCATOR ocean model analysis is found to be about 6 days. Conversely, the model forecast has an average crossover time longer than 6 days, suggesting limited skill in Lagrangian predictability by the current generation of global ocean models. The crossover time of the velocity error is less than 3 days, which is similar to the average decorrelation time of the observed drifters. The crossover time is a useful measure to quantify future ocean model improvements.

Anthropogenic Transformation of the Biomes, 1700 to 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.; Lightman, D.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Ramankutty, N.

2008-12-01

Current global patterns of terrestrial ecosystem form and process are now predominantly anthropogenic as a result of land use and other direct human interactions with ecosystems. This study investigates anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere over the course of the industrial revolution by mapping and characterizing global transitions between wild and anthropogenic biomes between 1700 and 2000. A global map of potential natural vegetation was used to represent wild biomes. Anthropogenic biomes were mapped for 1700, 1800, 1900 and 2000 using rule-based classification of current and historical global data for human population density, urban area and percent land cover by cultivated crops (rainfed, irrigated, and rice) and pastures. By assuming that wild, climate-driven, biome patterns have been relatively constant since 1700, transitions between wild and anthropogenic biomes were characterized between 1700 and 2000 at century intervals. Historical analysis of wild to anthropogenic biome transitions reveal the global transition from a primarily wild to a primarily anthropogenic terrestrial biosphere. Moreover, by mapping and examining global transitions between wild and anthropogenic biome classes, we provide a simple framework for assessing and modeling both past and future global biotic and ecological patterns in the light of the extent, intensity and duration of their modification by humans.

Paleobotany and Global Change: Important Lessons for Species to Biomes from Vegetation Responses to Past Global Change.

PubMed

McElwain, Jennifer C

2018-04-29

Human carbon use during the next century will lead to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO 2 ) that have been unprecedented for the past 50-100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO 2 estimates. The paleobotanical record of plants offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth's climatic future. Past global warming events have resulted in transient poleward migration at rates that are equivalent to the lowest climate velocities required for current taxa to keep pace with climate change. Paleobiome reconstructions suggest that the current tundra biome is the biome most threatened by global warming. The common occurrence of paleoforests at high polar latitudes when pCO 2 was above 500 ppm suggests that the advance of woody shrub and tree taxa into tundra environments may be inevitable. Fossil pollen studies demonstrate the resilience of wet tropical forests to global change up to 700 ppm CO 2 , contrary to modeled predictions of the future. The paleobotanical record also demonstrates a high capacity for functional trait evolution as an additional strategy to migration and maintenance of a species' climate envelope in response to global change.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8: Users Guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

1999-05-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8 is presented and its new features are discussed. Mars-GRAM uses new values of planetary reference ellipsoid radii, gravity term, and rotation rate (consistent with current JPL values) and includes centrifugal effects on gravity. The model now uses NASA Ames Global Circulation Model low resolution topography. Curvature corrections are applied to winds and limits based on speed of sound are applied. Altitude of the F1 ionization peak and density scale height, including effects of change of molecular weight with altitude are computed. A check is performed to disallow temperatures below CO2 sublimination. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and running the program. Sample input and output are provided. An example of incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code is also given.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8: Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

1999-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8 is presented and its new features are discussed. Mars-GRAM uses new values of planetary reference ellipsoid radii, gravity term, and rotation rate (consistent with current JPL values) and includes centrifugal effects on gravity. The model now uses NASA Ames Global Circulation Model low resolution topography. Curvature corrections are applied to winds and limits based on speed of sound are applied. Altitude of the F1 ionization peak and density scale height, including effects of change of molecular weight with altitude are computed. A check is performed to disallow temperatures below CO2 sublimination. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and running the program. Sample input and output are provided. An example of incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code is also given.

A gridded global data set of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposit thicknesses for regional and global land surface modeling

DOE PAGES

Pelletier, Jon D.; Broxton, Patrick D.; Hazenberg, Pieter; ...

2016-01-22

Earth’s terrestrial near-subsurface environment can be divided into relatively porous layers of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits above unweathered bedrock. Variations in the thicknesses of these layers control the hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of landscapes. Currently, Earth System Models approximate the thickness of these relatively permeable layers above bedrock as uniform globally, despite the fact that their thicknesses vary systematically with topography, climate, and geology. To meet the need for more realistic input data for models, we developed a high-resolution gridded global data set of the average thicknesses of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits within each 30 arcsecmore » (~ 1 km) pixel using the best available data for topography, climate, and geology as input. Our data set partitions the global land surface into upland hillslope, upland valley bottom, and lowland landscape components and uses models optimized for each landform type to estimate the thicknesses of each subsurface layer. On hillslopes, the data set is calibrated and validated using independent data sets of measured soil thicknesses from the U.S. and Europe and on lowlands using depth to bedrock observations from groundwater wells in the U.S. As a result, we anticipate that the data set will prove useful as an input to regional and global hydrological and ecosystems models.« less

A gridded global data set of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposit thicknesses for regional and global land surface modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelletier, Jon D.; Broxton, Patrick D.; Hazenberg, Pieter; Zeng, Xubin; Troch, Peter A.; Niu, Guo-Yue; Williams, Zachary; Brunke, Michael A.; Gochis, David

2016-03-01

Earth's terrestrial near-subsurface environment can be divided into relatively porous layers of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits above unweathered bedrock. Variations in the thicknesses of these layers control the hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of landscapes. Currently, Earth System Models approximate the thickness of these relatively permeable layers above bedrock as uniform globally, despite the fact that their thicknesses vary systematically with topography, climate, and geology. To meet the need for more realistic input data for models, we developed a high-resolution gridded global data set of the average thicknesses of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits within each 30 arcsec (˜1 km) pixel using the best available data for topography, climate, and geology as input. Our data set partitions the global land surface into upland hillslope, upland valley bottom, and lowland landscape components and uses models optimized for each landform type to estimate the thicknesses of each subsurface layer. On hillslopes, the data set is calibrated and validated using independent data sets of measured soil thicknesses from the U.S. and Europe and on lowlands using depth to bedrock observations from groundwater wells in the U.S. We anticipate that the data set will prove useful as an input to regional and global hydrological and ecosystems models. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Madden–Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer

PubMed Central

Miyakawa, Tomoki; Satoh, Masaki; Miura, Hiroaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Yashiro, Hisashi; Noda, Akira T.; Yamada, Yohei; Kodama, Chihiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Yoneyama, Kunio

2014-01-01

Global cloud/cloud system-resolving models are perceived to perform well in the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a huge eastward -propagating atmospheric pulse that dominates intraseasonal variation of the tropics and affects the entire globe. However, owing to model complexity, detailed analysis is limited by computational power. Here we carry out a simulation series using a recently developed supercomputer, which enables the statistical evaluation of the MJO prediction skill of a costly new-generation model in a manner similar to operational forecast models. We estimate the current MJO predictability of the model as 27 days by conducting simulations including all winter MJO cases identified during 2003–2012. The simulated precipitation patterns associated with different MJO phases compare well with observations. An MJO case captured in a recent intensive observation is also well reproduced. Our results reveal that the global cloud-resolving approach is effective in understanding the MJO and in providing month-long tropical forecasts. PMID:24801254

Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer.

PubMed

Miyakawa, Tomoki; Satoh, Masaki; Miura, Hiroaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Yashiro, Hisashi; Noda, Akira T; Yamada, Yohei; Kodama, Chihiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Yoneyama, Kunio

2014-05-06

Global cloud/cloud system-resolving models are perceived to perform well in the prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a huge eastward -propagating atmospheric pulse that dominates intraseasonal variation of the tropics and affects the entire globe. However, owing to model complexity, detailed analysis is limited by computational power. Here we carry out a simulation series using a recently developed supercomputer, which enables the statistical evaluation of the MJO prediction skill of a costly new-generation model in a manner similar to operational forecast models. We estimate the current MJO predictability of the model as 27 days by conducting simulations including all winter MJO cases identified during 2003-2012. The simulated precipitation patterns associated with different MJO phases compare well with observations. An MJO case captured in a recent intensive observation is also well reproduced. Our results reveal that the global cloud-resolving approach is effective in understanding the MJO and in providing month-long tropical forecasts.

Markov State Models of gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Chu, Brian K; Tse, Margaret J; Sato, Royce R; Read, Elizabeth L

2017-02-06

Gene regulatory networks with dynamics characterized by multiple stable states underlie cell fate-decisions. Quantitative models that can link molecular-level knowledge of gene regulation to a global understanding of network dynamics have the potential to guide cell-reprogramming strategies. Networks are often modeled by the stochastic Chemical Master Equation, but methods for systematic identification of key properties of the global dynamics are currently lacking. The method identifies the number, phenotypes, and lifetimes of long-lived states for a set of common gene regulatory network models. Application of transition path theory to the constructed Markov State Model decomposes global dynamics into a set of dominant transition paths and associated relative probabilities for stochastic state-switching. In this proof-of-concept study, we found that the Markov State Model provides a general framework for analyzing and visualizing stochastic multistability and state-transitions in gene networks. Our results suggest that this framework-adopted from the field of atomistic Molecular Dynamics-can be a useful tool for quantitative Systems Biology at the network scale.

Bayesian inversion of the global present-day GIA signal uncertainty from RSL data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Lambert; Ivins, Erik R.; Adhikari, Surendra; Larour, Eric

2017-04-01

Various geophysical signals measured in the process of studying the present-day climate change (such as changes in the Earth gravitational potential, ocean altimery or GPS data) include a secular Glacial Isostatic Adjustment contribution that has to be corrected for. Yet, one of the current major challenges that Glacial Isostatic Adjustment modelling is currently struggling with is to accurately determine the uncertainty of the predicted present-day GIA signal. This is especially true at the global scale, where coupling between ice history and mantle rheology greatly contributes to the non-uniqueness of the solutions. Here we propose to use more than 11000 paleo sea level records to constrain a set of GIA Bayesian inversions and thoroughly explore its parameters space. We include two linearly relaxing models to represent the mantle rheology and couple them with a scalable ice history model in order to better assess the non-uniqueness of the solutions. From the resulting estimates of the Probability Density Function, we then extract maps of uncertainty affecting the present-day vertical land motion and geoid due to GIA at the global scale, and their associated expectation of the signal.

Global emissions of trace gases, particulate matter, and hazardous air pollutants from open burning of domestic waste.

PubMed

Wiedinmyer, Christine; Yokelson, Robert J; Gullett, Brian K

2014-08-19

The open burning of waste, whether at individual residences, businesses, or dump sites, is a large source of air pollutants. These emissions, however, are not included in many current emission inventories used for chemistry and climate modeling applications. This paper presents the first comprehensive and consistent estimates of the global emissions of greenhouse gases, particulate matter, reactive trace gases, and toxic compounds from open waste burning. Global emissions of CO2 from open waste burning are relatively small compared to total anthropogenic CO2; however, regional CO2 emissions, particularly in many developing countries in Asia and Africa, are substantial. Further, emissions of reactive trace gases and particulate matter from open waste burning are more significant on regional scales. For example, the emissions of PM10 from open domestic waste burning in China is equivalent to 22% of China's total reported anthropogenic PM10 emissions. The results of the emissions model presented here suggest that emissions of many air pollutants are significantly underestimated in current inventories because open waste burning is not included, consistent with studies that compare model results with available observations.

Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellingsen, K.; Gauss, M.; van Dingenen, R.; Dentener, F. J.; Emberson, L.; Fiore, A. M.; Schultz, M. G.; Stevenson, D. S.; Ashmore, M. R.; Atherton, C. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lawrence, M. G.; van Noije, T.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Savage, N.; Strahan, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Wild, O.

2008-02-01

Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5-10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15-20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2-4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone.

Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Jackson, D. D.; Rhoades, D. A.; Zechar, J. D.; Marzocchi, W.

2016-12-01

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 442 models under evaluation. The California testing center, started by SCEC, Sept 1, 2007, currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. Our tests are now based on the hypocentral locations and magnitudes of cataloged earthquakes, but we plan to test focal mechanisms, seismic hazard models, ground motion forecasts, and finite rupture forecasts as well. We have increased computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model, introduced Bayesian ensemble models, and implemented support for non-Poissonian simulation-based forecasts models. We are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally hosted forecasts and predictions. CSEP supports the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. We found that earthquakes as small as magnitude 2.5 provide important information on subsequent earthquakes larger than magnitude 5. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence showed that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform catalog-based (e.g., ETAS) models. This experiment also demonstrates the ability of the CSEP infrastructure to support retrospective forecast testing. Current CSEP development activities include adoption of the Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat) as an authorized data source, retrospective testing of simulation-based forecasts, and support for additive ensemble methods. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models. We also discuss how CSEP procedures are being adapted to intensity and ground motion prediction experiments as well as hazard model testing.

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watters, T. R.; Weber, R. C.; Collins, G. C.; Johnson, C. L.

2017-01-01

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. Stresses due to orbital recession do not change with orbital position, thus it is with the addition of diurnal stresses that peak stresses are reached. At apogee, diurnal and recession stresses are most compressive near the tidal axis, while at perigee they are most compressive 90 degrees away from the tidal axis. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we show the results of relocating the shallow moonquake using an algorithm designed for sparse networks to better constrain their epicentral locations in order to compare them with stress models. The model for the current stress state of the Moon is refined by investigating the contribution of polar wander.

IPMP Global Fit - A one-step direct data analysis tool for predictive microbiology.

PubMed

Huang, Lihan

2017-12-04

The objective of this work is to develop and validate a unified optimization algorithm for performing one-step global regression analysis of isothermal growth and survival curves for determination of kinetic parameters in predictive microbiology. The algorithm is incorporated with user-friendly graphical interfaces (GUIs) to develop a data analysis tool, the USDA IPMP-Global Fit. The GUIs are designed to guide the users to easily navigate through the data analysis process and properly select the initial parameters for different combinations of mathematical models. The software is developed for one-step kinetic analysis to directly construct tertiary models by minimizing the global error between the experimental observations and mathematical models. The current version of the software is specifically designed for constructing tertiary models with time and temperature as the independent model parameters in the package. The software is tested with a total of 9 different combinations of primary and secondary models for growth and survival of various microorganisms. The results of data analysis show that this software provides accurate estimates of kinetic parameters. In addition, it can be used to improve the experimental design and data collection for more accurate estimation of kinetic parameters. IPMP-Global Fit can be used in combination with the regular USDA-IPMP for solving the inverse problems and developing tertiary models in predictive microbiology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Introducing Valuation Effects-Based External Balance Analysis into the Undergraduate Macroeconomics Curricula: A Simple Framework with Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brust, Peter; Jayakumar, Vivekanand

2012-01-01

Global imbalances and the sustainability of large U.S. current account deficits have dominated international macroeconomics of late. Pedagogically, a clear disconnect exists between graduate-level open-economy macroeconomics that emphasizes intertemporal current account models and net foreign asset adjustment featuring valuation effects, and,…

GLOFRIM - A globally applicable framework for integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic inundation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoch, J. M.; Neal, J. C.; Baart, F.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bates, P. D.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

Currently, many approaches to provide detailed flood hazard and risk estimates are built upon specific hydrologic or hydrodynamic model routines. By applying these routines in stand-alone mode important processes can however not accurately be described. For instance, global hydrologic models run at coarse spatial resolution, not supporting the detailed simulation of flood hazard. Hydrodynamic models excel in the computations of open water flow dynamics, but dependent on specific runoff or observed discharge as input. In most cases hydrodynamic models are forced at the boundaries and thus cannot account for water sources within the model domain, limiting the simulation of inundation dynamics to reaches fed by upstream boundaries. Recently, Hoch et al. (HESS, 2017) coupled PCR-GLOBWB (PCR) with the hydrodynamic model Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM). By means of the Basic Model Interface both models were connected on a cell-by-cell basis, allowing for spatially explicit coupling. Model results showed that discharge simulations can profit from model coupling compared to stand-alone runs. As model results of a coupled simulation depend on the quality of the models, it would be worthwhile to allow a suite of models to be coupled. To facilitate this, we present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable framework for integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic inundation modelling. In the current version coupling between PCR and both DFM and LISFLOOD-FP (LFP) can be established (Hoch et al., GMDD, 2017). First results show that differences between both hydrodynamic models are present in the timing of peak discharge which is most likely due to differences in channel-floodplain interactions and bathymetry processing. Having benchmarked inundation extent, LFP and DFM agree for around half of the inundated area which is attributable to variations in grid size. Results also indicate that, despite using identical boundary conditions and forcing, the schematization itself as well as internal processes can still greatly influence results. In general, the application of GLOFRIM brings several advantages. For example, with PCR being a global model, it is possible to reduce the dependency of observation data for discharge boundaries, and benchmarking of hydrodynamic models is greatly facilitated by employing identical hydrologic forcing.

Global marine bacterial diversity peaks at high latitudes in winter

PubMed Central

Ladau, Joshua; Sharpton, Thomas J; Finucane, Mariel M; Jospin, Guillaume; Kembel, Steven W; O'Dwyer, James; Koeppel, Alexander F; Green, Jessica L; Pollard, Katherine S

2013-01-01

Genomic approaches to characterizing bacterial communities are revealing significant differences in diversity and composition between environments. But bacterial distributions have not been mapped at a global scale. Although current community surveys are way too sparse to map global diversity patterns directly, there is now sufficient data to fit accurate models of how bacterial distributions vary across different environments and to make global scale maps from these models. We apply this approach to map the global distributions of bacteria in marine surface waters. Our spatially and temporally explicit predictions suggest that bacterial diversity peaks in temperate latitudes across the world's oceans. These global peaks are seasonal, occurring 6 months apart in the two hemispheres, in the boreal and austral winters. This pattern is quite different from the tropical, seasonally consistent diversity patterns observed for most macroorganisms. However, like other marine organisms, surface water bacteria are particularly diverse in regions of high human environmental impacts on the oceans. Our maps provide the first picture of bacterial distributions at a global scale and suggest important differences between the diversity patterns of bacteria compared with other organisms. PMID:23514781

Compiling and Mapping Global Permeability of the Unconsolidated and Consolidated Earth: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS 2.0 (GLHYMPS 2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huscroft, Jordan; Gleeson, Tom; Hartmann, Jens; Börker, Janine

2018-02-01

The spatial distribution of subsurface parameters such as permeability are increasingly relevant for regional to global climate, land surface, and hydrologic models that are integrating groundwater dynamics and interactions. Despite the large fraction of unconsolidated sediments on Earth's surface with a wide range of permeability values, current global, high-resolution permeability maps distinguish solely fine-grained and coarse-grained unconsolidated sediments. Representative permeability values are derived for a wide variety of unconsolidated sediments and applied to a new global map of unconsolidated sediments to produce the first geologically constrained, two-layer global map of shallower and deeper permeability. The new mean logarithmic permeability of the Earth's surface is -12.7 ± 1.7 m2 being 1 order of magnitude higher than that derived from previous maps, which is consistent with the dominance of the coarser sediments. The new data set will benefit a variety of scientific applications including the next generation of climate, land surface, and hydrology models at regional to global scales.

Global mismatch between fishing dependency and larval supply from marine reserves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrello, Marco; Guilhaumon, François; Albouy, Camille; Parravicini, Valeriano; Scholtens, Joeri; Verley, Philippe; Barange, Manuel; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Manel, Stéphanie; Mouillot, David

2017-07-01

Marine reserves are viewed as flagship tools to protect exploited species and to contribute to the effective management of coastal fisheries. Yet, the extent to which marine reserves are globally interconnected and able to effectively seed areas, where fisheries are most critical for food and livelihood security is largely unknown. Using a hydrodynamic model of larval dispersal, we predict that most marine reserves are not interconnected by currents and that their potential benefits to fishing areas are presently limited, since countries with high dependency on coastal fisheries receive very little larval supply from marine reserves. This global mismatch could be reversed, however, by placing new marine reserves in areas sufficiently remote to minimize social and economic costs but sufficiently connected through sea currents to seed the most exploited fisheries and endangered ecosystems.

Final report for DOE Award # DE- SC0010039*: Carbon dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate: Forcings, feedbacks, and implications for earth system modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; DeLucia, Evan H.; Duval, Benjamin D.

2015-10-29

To advance understanding of C dynamics of forests globally, we compiled a new database, the Forest C database (ForC-db), which contains data on ground-based measurements of ecosystem-level C stocks and annual fluxes along with disturbance history. This database currently contains 18,791 records from 2009 sites, making it the largest and most comprehensive database of C stocks and flows in forest ecosystems globally. The tropical component of the database will be published in conjunction with a manuscript that is currently under review (Anderson-Teixeira et al., in review). Database development continues, and we hope to maintain a dynamic instance of the entiremore » (global) database.« less

Coastal Zone Color Scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, B.

1988-01-01

The Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) spacecraft ocean color instrument is capable of measuring and mapping global ocean surface chlorophyll concentration. It is a scanning radiometer with multiband capability. With new electronics and some mechanical, and optical re-work, it probably can be made flight worthy. Some additional components of a second flight model are also available. An engineering study and further tests are necessary to determine exactly what effort is required to properly prepare the instrument for spaceflight and the nature of interfaces to prospective spacecraft. The CZCS provides operational instrument capability for monitoring of ocean productivity and currents. It could be a simple, low cost alternative to developing new instruments for ocean color imaging. Researchers have determined that with global ocean color data they can: specify quantitatively the role of oceans in the global carbon cycle and other major biogeochemical cycles; determine the magnitude and variability of annual primary production by marine phytoplankton on a global scale; understand the fate of fluvial nutrients and their possible affect on carbon budgets; elucidate the coupling mechanism between upwelling and large scale patterns in ocean basins; answer questions concerning the large scale distribution and timing of spring blooms in the global ocean; acquire a better understanding of the processes associated with mixing along the edge of eddies, coastal currents, western boundary currents, etc., and acquire global data on marine optical properties.

Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodegom, P. V.

2015-12-01

Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

Joint global optimization of tomographic data based on particle swarm optimization and decision theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paasche, H.; Tronicke, J.

2012-04-01

In many near surface geophysical applications multiple tomographic data sets are routinely acquired to explore subsurface structures and parameters. Linking the model generation process of multi-method geophysical data sets can significantly reduce ambiguities in geophysical data analysis and model interpretation. Most geophysical inversion approaches rely on local search optimization methods used to find an optimal model in the vicinity of a user-given starting model. The final solution may critically depend on the initial model. Alternatively, global optimization (GO) methods have been used to invert geophysical data. They explore the solution space in more detail and determine the optimal model independently from the starting model. Additionally, they can be used to find sets of optimal models allowing a further analysis of model parameter uncertainties. Here we employ particle swarm optimization (PSO) to realize the global optimization of tomographic data. PSO is an emergent methods based on swarm intelligence characterized by fast and robust convergence towards optimal solutions. The fundamental principle of PSO is inspired by nature, since the algorithm mimics the behavior of a flock of birds searching food in a search space. In PSO, a number of particles cruise a multi-dimensional solution space striving to find optimal model solutions explaining the acquired data. The particles communicate their positions and success and direct their movement according to the position of the currently most successful particle of the swarm. The success of a particle, i.e. the quality of the currently found model by a particle, must be uniquely quantifiable to identify the swarm leader. When jointly inverting disparate data sets, the optimization solution has to satisfy multiple optimization objectives, at least one for each data set. Unique determination of the most successful particle currently leading the swarm is not possible. Instead, only statements about the Pareto optimality of the found solutions can be made. Identification of the leading particle traditionally requires a costly combination of ranking and niching techniques. In our approach, we use a decision rule under uncertainty to identify the currently leading particle of the swarm. In doing so, we consider the different objectives of our optimization problem as competing agents with partially conflicting interests. Analysis of the maximin fitness function allows for robust and cheap identification of the currently leading particle. The final optimization result comprises a set of possible models spread along the Pareto front. For convex Pareto fronts, solution density is expected to be maximal in the region ideally compromising all objectives, i.e. the region of highest curvature.

Global Famine after a Regional Nuclear War

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Xia, L.; Mills, M. J.; Stenke, A.; Helfand, I.

2014-12-01

A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using 100 15-kt atomic bombs, could inject 5 Tg of soot into the upper troposphere from fires started in urban and industrial areas. Simulations by three different general circulation models, GISS ModelE, WACCM, and SOCOL, all agree that global surface temperature would decrease by 1 to 2°C for 5 to 10 years, and have major impacts on precipitation and solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Local summer climate changes over land would be larger. Using the DSSAT crop simulation model forced by these three global climate model simulations, we investigate the impacts on agricultural production in China, the largest grain producer in the world. In the first year after the regional nuclear war, a cooler, drier, and darker environment would reduce annual rice production by 23 Mt (24%), maize production by 41 Mt (23%), and wheat production by 23 Mt (50%). This reduction of food availability would continue, with gradually decreasing amplitude, for more than a decade. Results from simulations in other major grain producing regions produce similar results. Thus a nuclear war using much less than 1% of the current global arsenal could produce a global food crisis and put a billion people at risk of famine.

Insights into Global Health Practice from the Agile Software Development Movement

PubMed Central

Flood, David; Chary, Anita; Austad, Kirsten; Diaz, Anne Kraemer; García, Pablo; Martinez, Boris; Canú, Waleska López; Rohloff, Peter

2016-01-01

Global health practitioners may feel frustration that current models of global health research, delivery, and implementation are overly focused on specific interventions, slow to provide health services in the field, and relatively ill-equipped to adapt to local contexts. Adapting design principles from the agile software development movement, we propose an analogous approach to designing global health programs that emphasizes tight integration between research and implementation, early involvement of ground-level health workers and program beneficiaries, and rapid cycles of iterative program improvement. Using examples from our own fieldwork, we illustrate the potential of ‘agile global health’ and reflect on the limitations, trade-offs, and implications of this approach. PMID:27134081

Insights into Global Health Practice from the Agile Software Development Movement.

PubMed

Flood, David; Chary, Anita; Austad, Kirsten; Diaz, Anne Kraemer; García, Pablo; Martinez, Boris; Canú, Waleska López; Rohloff, Peter

2016-01-01

Global health practitioners may feel frustration that current models of global health research, delivery, and implementation are overly focused on specific interventions, slow to provide health services in the field, and relatively ill-equipped to adapt to local contexts. Adapting design principles from the agile software development movement, we propose an analogous approach to designing global health programs that emphasizes tight integration between research and implementation, early involvement of ground-level health workers and program beneficiaries, and rapid cycles of iterative program improvement. Using examples from our own fieldwork, we illustrate the potential of 'agile global health' and reflect on the limitations, trade-offs, and implications of this approach.

Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia.

PubMed

Reyenga, P J; Howden, S M; Meinke, H; Hall, W B

2001-09-01

Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4 degrees C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+10% summer rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+1.8 degrees C, -8% annual rainfall) +700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed.

Spatial Representativeness Error in the Ground‐Level Observation Networks for Black Carbon Radiation Absorption

PubMed Central

Andrews, Elisabeth; Balkanski, Yves; Boucher, Olivier; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Schulz, Michael; Schuster, Gregory L.; Valari, Myrto; Tao, Shu

2018-01-01

Abstract There is high uncertainty in the direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC), an aerosol that strongly absorbs solar radiation. The observation‐constrained estimate, which is several times larger than the bottom‐up estimate, is influenced by the spatial representativeness error due to the mesoscale inhomogeneity of the aerosol fields and the relatively low resolution of global chemistry‐transport models. Here we evaluated the spatial representativeness error for two widely used observational networks (AErosol RObotic NETwork and Global Atmosphere Watch) by downscaling the geospatial grid in a global model of BC aerosol absorption optical depth to 0.1° × 0.1°. Comparing the models at a spatial resolution of 2° × 2° with BC aerosol absorption at AErosol RObotic NETwork sites (which are commonly located near emission hot spots) tends to cause a global spatial representativeness error of 30%, as a positive bias for the current top‐down estimate of global BC direct radiative forcing. By contrast, the global spatial representativeness error will be 7% for the Global Atmosphere Watch network, because the sites are located in such a way that there are almost an equal number of sites with positive or negative representativeness error. PMID:29937603

Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds

Treesearch

H. Galbraith; R. Jones; R. Park; J. Clough; S. Herrod-Julius; B. Harrington; G. Page

2005-01-01

Global warming is expected to result in an acceleration of current rates of sea level rise, inundating many low-lying coastal and intertidal areas. This could have important implications for organisms that depend on these sites, including shorebirds that rely on them for foraging habitat during their migrations and in winter. We modeled the potential changes in the...

A Self-Consistent Model of the Interacting Ring Current Ions with Electromagnetic ICWs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; Krivorutsky, E. N.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Initial results from a newly developed model of the interacting ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves are presented. The model is based on the system of two bound kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another equation describes wave evolution. The system gives a self-consistent description of ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves in a quasilinear approach. These two equations were solved on a global scale under non steady-state conditions during the May 2-5, 1998 storm. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions and the wave active zones at three time cuts around initial, main, and late recovery phases of the May 4, 1998 storm phase are presented and discussed in detail. Comparisons of the model wave-ion data with the Polar/HYDRA and Polar/MFE instruments results are presented..

Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, D. D.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

2015-12-01

Maria Liukis, SCEC, USC; Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol; Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ Potsdam; John Yu, SCEC, USC; Philip Maechling, SCEC, USC; Jeremy Zechar, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH; Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC, USC, and the CSEP Working Group The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 435 models under evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, has been operational since Sept 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts, and are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence has been completed, and the results indicate that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform purely statistical (e.g., ETAS) models. The experiment also demonstrates the power of the CSEP cyberinfrastructure for retrospective testing. Our current development includes evaluation strategies that increase computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and how CSEP procedures are being adapted to ground motion prediction experiments.

A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2017-10-01

While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

Trust Model for Protection of Personal Health Data in a Global Environment.

PubMed

Ruotsalainen, Pekka; Blobel, Bernd

2017-01-01

Successful health care, eHealth, digital health, and personal health systems increasingly take place in cross-jurisdictional, dynamic and risk-encumbered information space. They require rich amount of personal health information (PHI). Trust is and will be the cornerstone and prerequisite for successful health services. In global environments, trust cannot be expected as granted. In this paper, health service in the global environment is perceived as a meta-system, and a trust management model is developed to support it. The predefined trusting belief currently used in health care is not transferable to global environments. In the authors' model, the level of trust is dynamically calculated from measurable attributes. These attributes describe trust features of the service provider and its environment. The calculated trust value or profile can be used in defining the risk service user has to accept when disclosing PHI, and in definition of additional privacy and security safeguards before disclosing PHI and/or using services.

Tide Corrections for Coastal Altimetry: Status and Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Egbert, Gary D.

2008-01-01

Knowledge of global oceanic tides has markedly advanced over the last two decades, in no small part because of the near-global measurements provided by satellite altimeters, and especially the long and precise Topex/Poseidon time series e.g. [2]. Satellite altimetry in turn places very severe demands on the accuracy of tidal models. The reason is clear: tides are by far the largest contributor to the variance of sea-surface elevation, so any study of non-tidal ocean signals requires removal of this dominant tidal component. Efforts toward improving models for altimetric tide corrections have understandably focused on deep-water, open-ocean regions. These efforts have produced models thought to be generally accurate to about 2 cm rms. Corresponding tide predictions in shelf and near-coastal regions, however, are far less accurate. This paper discusses the status of our current abilities to provide near-global tidal predictions in shelf and near-coastal waters, highlights some of the difficulties that must be overcome, and attempts to divine a path toward some degree of progress. There are, of course, many groups worldwide who model tides over fairly localized shallow-water regions, and such work is extremely valuable for any altimeter study limited to those regions, but this paper considers the more global models necessary for the general user. There have indeed been efforts to patch local and global models together, but such work is difficult to maintain over many updates and can often encounter problems of proprietary or political nature. Such a path, however, might yet prove the most fruitful, and there are now new plans afoot to try again. As is well known, tides in shallow waters tend to be large, possibly nonlinear, and high wavenumber. The short spatial scales mean that current mapping capabilities with (multiple) nadir-oriented altimeters often yield inadequate coverage. This necessitates added reliance on numerical hydrodynamic models and data assimilation, which in turn necessitates very accurate bathymetry with high spatial resolution. Nonlinearity means that many additional compound tides and overtides must be accounted for in our predictions, which increases the degree of modeling effort and increases the amounts of data required to disentangle closely aliased tides.

Carbon stock and carbon turnover in boreal and temperate forests - Integration of remote sensing data and global vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Santoro, Maurizio; Tum, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

2016-04-01

Long-term vegetation dynamics are one of the key uncertainties of the carbon cycle. There are large differences in simulated vegetation carbon stocks and fluxes including productivity, respiration and carbon turnover between global vegetation models. Especially the implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current models and their importance at global scale is highly uncertain. These shortcomings have been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which cannot be provided by inventory data alone. Instead, we recently have been able to estimate northern boreal and temperate forest carbon stocks based on radar remote sensing data. Our spatially explicit product (0.01° resolution) shows strong agreement to inventory-based estimates at a regional scale and allows for a spatial evaluation of carbon stocks and dynamics simulated by global vegetation models. By combining this state-of-the-art biomass product and NPP datasets originating from remote sensing, we are able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests along spatial gradients. We observe an increasing turnover rate with colder winter temperatures and longer winters in boreal forests, suggesting frost damage and the trade-off between frost adaptation and growth being important mortality processes in this ecosystem. In contrast, turnover rate increases with climatic conditions favouring drought and insect outbreaks in temperate forests. Investigated global vegetation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce observation-based spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well in terms of NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2017-01-01

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P < 0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and a CDOC (r =0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250-800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within 0.074 mW/sq cm/micron/sr of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of 10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability. PACE, ocean color, water-leaving radiances, biogeochemical model, radiative transfer model

[Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

PubMed

Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

2014-01-01

Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project.

Updating the lake-atmosphere gas transfer velocity with impacts on the role of lake ecosystems in global carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiskanen, J. J.; Mammarella, I.; Haapanala, S.; Vesala, T.; Pumpanen, J. S.; Ojala, A.

2013-12-01

Currently, the global estimate for the amount of carbon bound in terrestrial ecosystems is 3.0 × 0.9 Pg C y-1 [Le Quéré et al., 2009]. Lakes are not explicitly included in currently used global carbon models [Randall et al., 2007] but it has been estimated that the global net CO2 flux from lakes to the atmosphere range from 0.07 to 0.15 Pg C y-1 [Cole et al., 2007], corresponding to 2.3-5.0% of the total average terrestrial net uptake of carbon. These lake flux estimates may be considerably biased [MacIntyre et al., 2010], since although the data pertain to about 5000 lakes throughout the world [Sobek and Tranvik, 2005], the estimates are not from direct flux measurements. Instead, they are based on surface-water CO2 partial pressure in combination with the gas transfer velocity, k. The uncertainty in the global net CO2 flux is mostly due to the uncertainties in k, which can vary considerably. Cole and Caraco (1998) measured a range of 1.4 to 4.8 cm h-1 for k, but again, these values are not based on direct flux measurements of CO2. The most widely used empirical models of k have wind speed as the only explaining variable. However, the gas transfer velocity is also known to depend on turbulence in the surface water [MacIntyre et al., 2010], which in turn depends mostly on penetrative water convection at low wind conditions [MacIntyre et al., 2010; MacIntyre et al., 2001] - the conditions often prevailing in lakes [Schladow et al., 2002]. We formulated an improved model for k with heat flux parameterization in addition to a wind-speed parameter, determined from an analysis of 4 months (August - November 2011) of continuous high-frequency data in a typical small boreal lake in southern Finland. The CO2 flux from the lake to the atmosphere, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2, and latent and sensible heat were measured with the EC technique installed on a platform. Ancillary measurements included surface-water CO2 concentration and temperature, and net longwave and shortwave radiation. The modeled average k for the whole period, 9.5 cm h-1, was near to the measured average, 8.7 cm h-1. We used 24-hour averages when comparing the results. The new model for k had an R2 value of 0.66 when its performance was compared to the measured gas transfer velocity. Even though this is a lot higher value than when comparing the measured k with a widely used model for k (Cole and Caraco 1998, R2=0.29), the new model could not predict all the sudden changes in k and still roughly one third of the variation was left unexplained. This might be due to the environmental factors omitted by the model, e.g. surfactants. As a result, we showed that the current estimate of the global net CO2 flux from lakes to the atmosphere triples from 0.07-0.15 Pg C y-1 to 0.23-0.48 Pg C y-1 when the average k by Cole and Caraco (1998) is replaced with the new k. This corresponds to 7.5-16.0% of the total CO2 bound in terrestrial ecosystems compared with the current estimates of 2.3-5.0%. The new parameterization of k, assuming that it represents lakes in general, thus shows that the role of lakes in the global carbon cycle has been heavily underestimated and emphasizes the explicit inclusion of lakes in global carbon models.

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watters, Thomas R.; Weber, Renee C.; Collins, Geoffrey C.; Johnson, Catherine L.

2017-01-01

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps are very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress. Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and may produce thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. At any particular point on the lunar surface, peak compressive stress will be reached at a certain time in the diurnal cycle. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we report efforts to refine the model for the current stress state of the Moon by investigating the contribution of polar wander. Progress on relocating the epicentral locations of the shallow moonquakes using an algorithm designed for sparse networks is also reported.

Predictive optimal control of sewer networks using CORAL tool: application to Riera Blanca catchment in Barcelona.

PubMed

Puig, V; Cembrano, G; Romera, J; Quevedo, J; Aznar, B; Ramón, G; Cabot, J

2009-01-01

This paper deals with the global control of the Riera Blanca catchment in the Barcelona sewer network using a predictive optimal control approach. This catchment has been modelled using a conceptual modelling approach based on decomposing the catchments in subcatchments and representing them as virtual tanks. This conceptual modelling approach allows real-time model calibration and control of the sewer network. The global control problem of the Riera Blanca catchment is solved using a optimal/predictive control algorithm. To implement the predictive optimal control of the Riera Blanca catchment, a software tool named CORAL is used. The on-line control is simulated by interfacing CORAL with a high fidelity simulator of sewer networks (MOUSE). CORAL interchanges readings from the limnimeters and gate commands with MOUSE as if it was connected with the real SCADA system. Finally, the global control results obtained using the predictive optimal control are presented and compared against the results obtained using current local control system. The results obtained using the global control are very satisfactory compared to those obtained using the local control.

GPS system simulation methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewing, Thomas F.

1993-01-01

The following topics are presented: background; Global Positioning System (GPS) methodology overview; the graphical user interface (GUI); current models; application to space nuclear power/propulsion; and interfacing requirements. The discussion is presented in vugraph form.

CRCM + BATS-R-US two-way coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glocer, A.; Fok, M.; Meng, X.; Toth, G.; Buzulukova, N.; Chen, S.; Lin, K.

2013-04-01

We present the coupling methodology and validation of a fully coupled inner and global magnetosphere code using the infrastructure provided by the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). In this model, the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) represents the inner magnetosphere, while the Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) represents the global magnetosphere. The combined model is a global magnetospheric code with a realistic ring current and consistent electric and magnetic fields. The computational performance of the model was improved to surpass real-time execution by the use of the Message Passing Interface (MPI) to parallelize the CRCM. Initial simulations under steady driving found that the coupled model resulted in a higher pressure in the inner magnetosphere and an inflated closed field-line region as compared to simulations without inner-magnetosphere coupling. Our validation effort was split into two studies. The first study examined the ability of the model to reproduce Dst for a range of events from the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Dst Challenge. It also investigated the possibility of a baseline shift and compared two approaches to calculating Dst from the model. We found that the model did a reasonable job predicting Dst and Sym-H according to our two metrics of prediction efficiency and predicted yield. The second study focused on the specific case of the 22 July 2009 moderate geomagnetic storm. In this study, we directly compare model predictions and observations for Dst, THEMIS energy spectragrams, TWINS ENA images, and GOES 11 and 12 magnetometer data. The model did an adequate job reproducing trends in the data. Moreover, we found that composition can have a large effect on the result.

Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackerras, David; Darveniza, Mat; Orville, Richard E.; Williams, Earle R.; Goodman, Steven J.

1999-01-01

A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approximately equals 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approximately equals 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels. The comparisons were made for the northern winter (Nov.-Feb.), the equinox (Mar., Apr., Sept., Oct.), the northern summer (May-Aug.), and the whole year.

Modelling the Air–Surface Exchange of Ammonia from the Field to Global Scale

EPA Science Inventory

The Working Group addressed the current understanding and uncertainties in the processes controlling ammonia (NH3) bi-directional exchange, and in the application of numerical models to describe these processes. As a starting point for the discussion, the Working Group drew on th...

Adult Human Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes: An Alternative Model for Evaluating Chemical and Environmental Pollutant Cardiotoxicity

EPA Science Inventory

Heart disease is increasing globally with a significant percentage of the increase being attributed to chemical and pollution exposures. Currently, no alternative or in vitro testing models exist to rapidly and accurately determine the cardiac effects of chemicals and/or pollutan...

The Status of the NASA MEaSUREs Combined ASTER and MODIS Emissivity Over Land (CAMEL) Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borbas, E. E.; Feltz, M.; Hulley, G. C.; Knuteson, R. O.; Hook, S. J.

2017-12-01

As part of a NASA MEaSUREs Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity project, the University of Wisconsin, Space Science and Engineering Center and the NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have developed a global monthly mean emissivity Earth System Data Record (ESDR). The CAMEL ESDR was produced by merging two current state-of-the-art emissivity datasets: the UW-Madison MODIS Infrared emissivity dataset (UWIREMIS), and the JPL ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset v4 (GEDv4). The dataset includes monthly global data records of emissivity, uncertainty at 13 hinge points between 3.6-14.3 µm, and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) coefficients at 5 kilometer resolution for years 2003 to 2015. A high spectral resolution algorithm is also provided for HSR applications. The dataset is currently being tested in sounder retrieval algorithm (e.g. CrIS, IASI) and has already been implemented in RTTOV-12 for immediate use in numerical weather modeling and data assimilation. This poster will present the current status of the dataset.

Global and Time-Resolved Monitoring of Crop Photosynthesis with Chlorophyll Fluorescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guanter, Luis; Zhang, Yongguang; Jung, Martin; Joiner, Joanna; Voigt, Maximilian; Berry, Joseph A.; Frankenberg, Christian; Huete, Alfredo R.; Zarco-Tejada, Pablo; Lee, Jung-Eun;

Global and time-resolved monitoring of crop photosynthesis with chlorophyll fluorescence

PubMed Central

Guanter, Luis; Zhang, Yongguang; Jung, Martin; Joiner, Joanna; Voigt, Maximilian; Berry, Joseph A.; Frankenberg, Christian; Huete, Alfredo R.; Zarco-Tejada, Pablo; Lee, Jung-Eun; Moran, M. Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Beer, Christian; Camps-Valls, Gustavo; Buchmann, Nina; Gianelle, Damiano; Klumpp, Katja; Cescatti, Alessandro; Baker, John M.; Griffis, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

Photosynthesis is the process by which plants harvest sunlight to produce sugars from carbon dioxide and water. It is the primary source of energy for all life on Earth; hence it is important to understand how this process responds to climate change and human impact. However, model-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP, output from photosynthesis) are highly uncertain, in particular over heavily managed agricultural areas. Recent advances in spectroscopy enable the space-based monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from terrestrial plants. Here we demonstrate that spaceborne SIF retrievals provide a direct measure of the GPP of cropland and grassland ecosystems. Such a strong link with crop photosynthesis is not evident for traditional remotely sensed vegetation indices, nor for more complex carbon cycle models. We use SIF observations to provide a global perspective on agricultural productivity. Our SIF-based crop GPP estimates are 50–75% higher than results from state-of-the-art carbon cycle models over, for example, the US Corn Belt and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, implying that current models severely underestimate the role of management. Our results indicate that SIF data can help us improve our global models for more accurate projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields. Extension of our approach to other ecosystems, along with increased observational capabilities for SIF in the near future, holds the prospect of reducing uncertainties in the modeling of the current and future carbon cycle. PMID:24706867

Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

2017-04-01

A high resolution regional model (1/36 degree) of the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean (GoMSS) is developed to downscale ocean conditions from an existing global operational system. First, predictions from the regional GoMSS model in a one-way nesting set up are evaluated using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that on the shelf, the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is because of unrealistic internally generated variability (associated with the one-way nesting set up) that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system in the deep water. To overcome this problem, the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the regional model are spectrally nudged towards the global system fields. This leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cut-off wavelength of the spectral nudging.

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences inmore » projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.« less

Global scale groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I. E.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

2013-12-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and also supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, the large natural groundwater storage provides a buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a transient global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013) combined with information about e.g. aquifer thickness and presence of less permeable, impermeable, and semi-impermeable layers. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated simulated groundwater heads with observations, from North America and Australia, resulting in a coefficient of determination of 0.8 and 0.7 respectively. This shows that it is feasible to build a global groundwater model using best available global information, and estimated water table depths are within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porada, Philipp; Lenton, Tim; Pohl, Alexandre; Weber, Bettina; Mander, Luke; Donnadieu, Yannick; Beer, Christian; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel

2017-04-01

Early non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician may have strongly increased chemical weathering rates of surface rocks at the global scale. This could have led to a drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and, consequently, a decrease in global temperature and an interval of glaciations. Under current climatic conditions, usually field or laboratory experiments are used to quantify enhancement of chemical weathering rates by non-vascular vegetation. However, these experiments are constrained to a small spatial scale and a limited number of species. This complicates the extrapolation to the global scale, even more so for the geological past, where physiological properties of non-vascular vegetation may have differed from current species. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate large-scale chemical weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. For this purpose, we use a process-based model of lichens and bryophytes, since these organisms are probably the closest living analogue to Late Ordovician vegetation. The model explicitly represents multiple physiological strategies, which enables the simulated vegetation to adapt to Ordovician climatic conditions. We estimate productivity of Ordovician vegetation with the model, and relate it to chemical weathering by assuming that the organisms dissolve rocks to extract phosphorus for the production of new biomass. Thereby we account for limits on weathering due to reduced supply of unweathered rock material in shallow regions, as well as decreased transport capacity of runoff for dissolved weathered material in dry areas. We simulate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 km3 (rock) per year, which we define as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. Our estimate is around 3 times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Furthermore, chemical weathering rates simulated by our model are highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration, which implies a strong negative feedback between weathering by non-vascular vegetation and Ordovician climate.

Weather it's Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

2004-12-01

For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

A Mechanism for the Loading-Unloading Substorm Cycle Missing in MHD Global Magnetospheric Simulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klimas, A. J.; Uritsky, V.; Vassiliadis, D.; Baker, D. N.

2005-01-01

Loading and consequent unloading of magnetic flux is an essential element of the substorm cycle in Earth's magnetotail. We are unaware of an available global MHD magnetospheric simulation model that includes a loading- unloading cycle in its behavior. Given the central role that MHD models presently play in the development of our understanding of magnetospheric dynamics, and given the present plans for the central role that these models will play in ongoing space weather prediction programs, it is clear that this failure must be corrected. A 2-dimensional numerical driven current-sheet model has been developed that incorporates an idealized current- driven instability with a resistive MHD system. Under steady loading, the model exhibits a global loading- unloading cycle. The specific mechanism for producing the loading-unloading cycle will be discussed. It will be shown that scale-free avalanching of electromagnetic energy through the model, from loading to unloading, is carried by repetitive bursts of localized reconnection. Each burst leads, somewhat later, to a field configuration that is capable of exciting a reconnection burst again. This process repeats itself in an intermittent manner while the total field energy in the system falls. At the end of an unloading interval, the total field energy is reduced to well below that necessary to initiate the next unloading event and, thus, a loading-unloading cycle results. It will be shown that, in this model, it is the topology of bursty localized reconnection that is responsible for the appearance of the loading-unloading cycle.

Representing life in the Earth system with soil microbial functional traits in the MIMICS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, W. R.; Grandy, A. S.; Kallenbach, C. M.; Taylor, P. G.; Bonan, G. B.

2015-02-01

Projecting biogeochemical responses to global environmental change requires multi-scaled perspectives that consider organismal diversity, ecosystem processes and global fluxes. However, microbes, the drivers of soil organic matter decomposition and stabilization, remain notably absent from models used to project carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. We used a microbial trait-based soil carbon (C) model, with two physiologically distinct microbial communities to improve current estimates of soil C storage and their likely response to perturbations. Drawing from the application of functional traits used to model other ecosystems, we incorporate copiotrophic and oligotrophic microbial functional groups in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model, which incorporates oligotrophic and copiotrophic functional groups, akin to "gleaner" vs. "opportunist" plankton in the ocean, or r vs. K strategists in plant and animals communities. Here we compare MIMICS to a conventional soil C model, DAYCENT, in cross-site comparisons of nitrogen (N) enrichment effects on soil C dynamics. MIMICS more accurately simulates C responses to N enrichment; moreover, it raises important hypotheses involving the roles of substrate availability, community-level enzyme induction, and microbial physiological responses in explaining various soil biogeochemical responses to N enrichment. In global-scale analyses, we show that current projections from Earth system models likely overestimate the strength of the land C sink in response to increasing C inputs with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2). Our findings illustrate that tradeoffs between theory and utility can be overcome to develop soil biogeochemistry models that evaluate and advance our theoretical understanding of microbial dynamics and soil biogeochemical responses to environmental change.

Novel applications of the temporal kernel method: Historical and future radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E.; Solomon, S.; Murphy, D. M.

2017-12-01

We present a new estimate of the historical radiative forcing derived from the observed global mean surface temperature and a model derived kernel function. Current estimates of historical radiative forcing are usually derived from climate models. Despite large variability in these models, the multi-model mean tends to do a reasonable job of representing the Earth system and climate. One method of diagnosing the transient radiative forcing in these models requires model output of top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and global mean temperature anomaly. It is difficult to apply this method to historical observations due to the lack of TOA radiative measurements before CERES. We apply the temporal kernel method (TKM) of calculating radiative forcing to the historical global mean temperature anomaly. This novel approach is compared against the current regression based methods using model outputs and shown to produce consistent forcing estimates giving confidence in the forcing derived from the historical temperature record. The derived TKM radiative forcing provides an estimate of the forcing time series that the average climate model needs to produce the observed temperature record. This forcing time series is found to be in good overall agreement with previous estimates but includes significant differences that will be discussed. The historical anthropogenic aerosol forcing is estimated as a residual from the TKM and found to be consistent with earlier moderate forcing estimates. In addition, this method is applied to future temperature projections to estimate the radiative forcing required to achieve those temperature goals, such as those set in the Paris agreement.

Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

2016-04-01

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

Space Weather Forecasting at NOAA with Michigan's Geospace Model: Results from the First Year in Real-Time Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.

2017-12-01

In October 2016, the first version of the Geospace model was transitioned into real-time operations at NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The Geospace model is a part of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan, and the model simulates the full time-dependent 3D Geospace environment (Earth's magnetosphere, ring current and ionosphere) and predicts global space weather parameters such as induced magnetic perturbations in space and on Earth's surface. The current version of the Geospace model uses three coupled components of SWMF: the BATS-R-US global magnetosphere model, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the inner magnetosphere, and the Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM). In the operational mode, SWMF/Geospace runs continually in real-time as long as there is new solar wind data arriving from a satellite at L1, either DSCOVR or ACE. We present an analysis of the overall performance of the Geospace model during the first year of real-time operations. Evaluation metrics include Kp, Dst, as well as regional magnetometer stations. We will also present initial results from new products, such as the AE index, available with the recent upgrade to the Geospace model.

A New Synthetic Global Biomass Carbon Map for the year 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spawn, S.; Lark, T.; Gibbs, H.

2017-12-01

Satellite technologies have facilitated a recent boom in high resolution, large-scale biomass estimation and mapping. These data are the input into a wide range of global models and are becoming the gold standard for required national carbon (C) emissions reporting. Yet their geographical and/or thematic scope may exclude some or all parts of a given country or region. Most datasets tend to focus exclusively on forest biomass. Grasslands and shrublands generally store less C than forests but cover nearly twice as much global land area and may represent a significant portion of a given country's biomass C stock. To address these shortcomings, we set out to create synthetic, global above- and below-ground biomass maps that combine recently-released satellite based data of standing forest biomass with novel estimates for non-forest biomass stocks that are typically neglected. For forests we integrated existing publicly available regional, global and biome-specific biomass maps and modeled below ground biomass using empirical relationships described in the literature. For grasslands, we developed models for both above- and below-ground biomass based on NPP, mean annual temperature and precipitation to extrapolate field measurements across the globe. Shrubland biomass was extrapolated from existing regional biomass maps using environmental factors to generate the first global estimate of shrub biomass. Our new synthetic map of global biomass carbon circa 2010 represents an update to the IPCC Tier-1 Global Biomass Carbon Map for the Year 2000 (Ruesch and Gibbs, 2008) using the best data currently available. In the absence of a single seamless remotely sensed map of global biomass, our synthetic map provides the only globally-consistent source of comprehensive biomass C data and is valuable for land change analyses, carbon accounting, and emissions modeling.

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

2015-01-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

2015-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

3D tomographic reconstruction of the terrestrial exosphere and its time-dependent coupling to the magnetospheric ring current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldrop, L.; Cucho-Padin, G.; Ilie, R.

2017-12-01

Charge exchange collisions between ring current ions and hydrogen (H) atoms in the outer exosphere serve to dissipate magnetospheric energy, particularly during the slow recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, through the generation of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) which escape the system. As a result, knowledge of the spatial distribution and temporal variability of exospheric H density is critical for reliable interpretation of ENA flux measurements as well as for accurate modeling of the ring current. Although numerous theoretical, numerical, and empirical H distributions have been used for such analyses, their reliance on ad hoc or unphysical assumptions, together with their inherently static formulations, is a source of significant uncertainty. Our recent development of a robust tomographic technique for the model-independent estimation of global exospheric H density from optical remote sensing data overcomes the limitations of past analysis and enables an unprecedented investigation of global exospheric and ring current dynamics. Here, we present sample results of our 3D, time-dependent reconstructions of exospheric structure, derived from measurements of resonantly scattered solar Lyman-alpha (121.6 nm) photons acquired by the Lyman-alpha detectors (LADs) onboard NASA's Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS) mission. We use the Hot Electron and Ion Drift Integrator (HEIDI) kinetic model of the ring current to investigate the charge exchange interactions between the resulting H density distribution and ring current ions and generate synthetic images of ENA flux for comparison with those measured by TWINS.

Maintaining Atmospheric Mass and Water Balance Within Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Todling, Ricardo

2015-01-01

This report describes the modifications implemented into the Goddard Earth Observing System Version-5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) to maintain global conservation of dry atmospheric mass as well as to preserve the model balance of globally integrated precipitation and surface evaporation during reanalysis. Section 1 begins with a review of these global quantities from four current reanalysis efforts. Section 2 introduces the modifications necessary to preserve these constraints within the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis procedure, and the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) algorithm. Section 3 presents experiments quantifying the impact of the new procedure. Section 4 shows preliminary results from its use within the GMAO MERRA-2 Reanalysis project. Section 5 concludes with a summary.

Global ionospheric current distributions during substorms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, B.; Kamide, Y.; Akasofu, S.

1984-03-01

The growth and decay of global ionospheric currents during magnetospheric substorms on March 17, 18, and 19, 1978 are examined on the basis of magnetic records from the six IMS meridian chains of observatories and others (the total number being 71). The computer code developed by Kamide et al. (1981) and the conductivity model developed by Ahn et al. (1983) are used. Several substorms centered around 1000-1200 UT are chosen in this presentation, since the simultaneous all-sky and riometer records are essential in timing the substorm epochs. Several global feautes that are common to most substorms during the three-day intervalmore » include the following: (1) During a quiet period, currents are often present in the cusp and/or polar cap regions. The cusp current consists of a pair of east-west currents and the polar cap current consists of several vortices. (2) When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B/sub z/ component is positive, but decreases in magnitude, a well-defined westward electrojet develops in the midnight sector. However, this development is not evident in the AE index. (3) A gradual, but distinct growth (often followed by a rapid and large increase) in the AE index is indentified as the intensification of a weaksubstorm current system, which was mentioned in (2), accompanied by typical auroral substorm features, including riometer absorption. (4) The subsequent sharp increase of the AE index arises primarily from a deep intrusion of the westward electrojet into the pre-midnight sector and its equatorward shift. (5) The overall increase of the global current can be significantly differnt fromm what a sharp increase of the AE index indicates. (6) During the recovery phase, the intruded westward electrojet recedes towards the dawn sector.« less

Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schimel, David; Pavlick, Ryan; Fisher, Joshua B.

2015-02-06

Modeled terrestrial ecosystem and carbon cycle feedbacks contribute substantial uncertainty to projections of future climate. The limitations of current observing networks contribute to this uncertainty. Here we present a current climatology of global model predictions and observations for photosynthesis, biomass, plant diversity and plant functional diversity. Carbon cycle tipping points occur in terrestrial regions where fluxes or stocks are largest, and where biological variability is highest, the tropics and Arctic/Boreal zones. Global observations are predominately in the mid-latitudes and are sparse in high and low latitude ecosystems. Observing and forecasting ecosystem change requires sustained observations of sufficient density in timemore » and space in critical regions. Using data and theory available now, we can develop a strategy to detect and forecast terrestrial carbon cycle-climate interactions, by combining in situ and remote techniques.« less

Sensitivity Analysis Reveals Critical Factors that Affect Wetland Methane Emissions using Soil Biogeochemistry Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Contes, C.; Gerber, S.; Bliznyuk, N.; Duerr, I.

2017-12-01

Wetlands contribute approximately 20 to 40 % to global sources of methane emissions. We build a Methane model for tropical and subtropical forests, that allows inundated conditions, following the approaches used in more complex global biogeochemical emission models (LPJWhyMe and CLM4Me). The model was designed to replace model formulations with field and remotely sensed collected data for 2 essential drivers: plant productivity and hydrology. This allows us to directly focus on the central processes of methane production, consumption and transport. One of our long term goals is to make the model available to a scientists interested in including methane modeling in their location of study. Sensitivity analysis results help in focusing field data collection efforts. Here, we present results from a pilot global sensitivity analysis of the model order to determine which parameters and processes contribute most to the model's uncertainty of methane emissions. Results show that parameters related to water table behavior, carbon input (in form of plant productivity) and rooting depth affect simulated methane emissions the most. Current efforts include to perform the sensitivity analysis again on methane emissions outputs from an updated model that incorporates a soil heat flux routine and to determine the extent by which the soil temperature parameters affect CH4 emissions. Currently we are conducting field collection of data during Summer 2017 for comparison among 3 different landscapes located in the Ordway-Swisher Biological Station in Melrose, FL. We are collecting soil moisture and CH4 emission data from 4 different wetland types. Having data from 4 wetland types allows for calibration of the model to diverse soil, water and vegetation characteristics.

Projected loss of a salamander diversity hotspot as a consequence of projected global climate change.

PubMed

Milanovich, Joseph R; Peterman, William E; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Maerz, John C

2010-08-16

Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms. We used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO(2) scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species. While models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO(2) emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020, but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO(2) emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.

Energetic Electron Transport in the Inner Magnetosphere During Geomagnetic Storms and Substorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKenzie, D. L.; Anderson, P. C.

2005-01-01

We propose to examine the relationship of geomagnetic storms and substorms and the transport of energetic particles in the inner magnetosphere using measurements of the auroral X-ray emissions by PIXIE. PIXIE provides a global view of the auroral oval for the extended periods of time required to study stormtime phenomena. Its unique energy response and global view allow separation of stormtime particle transport driven by strong magnetospheric electric fields from substorm particle transport driven by magnetic-field dipolarization and subsequent particle injection. The relative importance of substorms in releasing stored magnetospheric energy during storms and injecting particles into the inner magnetosphere and the ring current is currently hotly debated. The distribution of particles in the inner magnetosphere is often inferred from measurements of the precipitating auroral particles. Thus, the global distributions of the characteristics of energetic precipitating particles during storms and substorms are extremely important inputs to any description or model of the geospace environment and the Sun-Earth connection. We propose to use PIXIE observations and modeling of the transport of energetic electrons to examine the relationship between storms and substorms.

Chagas disease and globalization of the Amazon.

PubMed

Briceño-León, Roberto

2007-01-01

The increasing number of autochthonous cases of Chagas disease in the Amazon since the 1970s has led to fear that the disease may become a new public health problem in the region. This transformation in the disease's epidemiological pattern in the Amazon can be explained by environmental and social changes in the last 30 years. The current article draws on the sociological theory of perverse effects to explain these changes as the unwanted result of the shift from the "inward" development model prevailing until the 1970s to the "outward" model that we know as globalization, oriented by industrial forces and international trade. The current article highlights the implementation of five new patterns in agriculture, cattle-raising, mining, lumbering, and urban occupation that have generated changes in the environment and the traditional indigenous habitat and have led to migratory flows, deforestation, sedentary living, the presence of domestic animals, and changes in the habitat that facilitate colonization of human dwellings by vectors and the domestic and work-related transmission of the disease. The expansion of Chagas disease is thus a perverse effect of the globalization process in the Amazon.

Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century.

PubMed

Tjaden, Nils B; Suk, Jonathan E; Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2017-06-19

The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.

A Self-Consistent Model of the Interacting Ring Current Ions and Electromagnetic ICWs. Initial Results: Waves and Precipitation Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; Krivorutsky, E. N.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Initial results from the new developed model of the interacting ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves are presented. The model described by the system of two bound kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another one gives wave evolution. Such system gives a self-consistent description of the ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves in a quasilinear approach. Calculating ion-wave relationships, on a global scale under non steady-state conditions during May 2-5, 1998 storm, we presented the data at three time cuts around initial, main, and late recovery phases of May 4, 1998 storm phase. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions and the wave active ones are discussed in detail.

A study on the impact of nuclear power plant construction relative to decommissioning Fossil Fuel Power Plant in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions using a modified Nordhaus Vensim DICE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colpetzer, Jason Lee

The current levels of CO2 emissions and high levels accumulating in the atmosphere have climate scientists concerned. The Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy Model or "DICE" for short is a highly developed model that has been used to simulate climate change and evaluate factors addressing global warming. The model was developed by Yale's Nordhaus along with collaborators and the compilation of numerous scientific publications. The purpose of this study is to recreate DICE using Vensim and modify it to evaluate the use of nuclear power plants (NPPs) as a means to counter global temperature increases in the atmosphere and oceans and the associated cost of damages. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions from a NPP are about 6% per Megawatt as that from a Fossil Fuel Power Plant (FFPP). Based on this, a model was developed to simulate construction of NPPs with subsequent decommissioning of FFPPs with an equivalent power output. The results produced through multiple simulation runs utilizing variable NPP construction rates show that some minor benefit is achievable if all of the more than 10,000 FFPPs currently in operation in the U.S. are replaced with NPPs. The results show that a reduction in CO 2 emissions of 2.48% will occur if all of the FFPPs are decommissioned. At a minimum rate of 50 NPPs constructed per year, the largest reduction in CO2 in the atmosphere, 1.94% or 44.5 billion tons of carbon, is possible. This results in a reduction in global warming of 0.068°C or 1.31%. The results also show that this reduction in global warming will be equivalent to a reduction of 8.2% or $148 B in anticipated annual spending as a result of climate change damages. Further results indicate that using NPPs to address climate change will provide a small benefit; ultimately, it will not be enough to reduce CO2 emissions or atmospheric CO 2 to control global warming. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is predicted to be 1055 parts per million (ppm) even in the best case scenario, which is well above the current limit of 350 ppm proposed by Hansen et. al.

Global-mean BC lifetime as an indicator of model skill? Constraining the vertical aerosol distribution using aircraft observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, M. T.; Samset, B. H.; Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.

2017-12-01

Several recent studies have used observations from the HIPPO flight campaigns to constrain the modeled vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) over the Pacific. Results indicate a relatively linear relationship between global-mean atmospheric BC residence time, or lifetime, and bias in current models. A lifetime of less than 5 days is necessary for models to reasonably reproduce these observations. This is shorter than what many global models predict, which will in turn affect their estimates of BC climate impacts. Here we use the chemistry-transport model OsloCTM to examine whether this relationship between global BC lifetime and model skill also holds for a broader a set of flight campaigns from 2009-2013 covering both remote marine and continental regions at a range of latitudes. We perform four sets of simulations with varying scavenging efficiency to obtain a spread in the modeled global BC lifetime and calculate the model error and bias for each campaign and region. Vertical BC profiles are constructed using an online flight simulator, as well by averaging and interpolating monthly mean model output, allowing us to quantify sampling errors arising when measurements are compared with model output at different spatial and temporal resolutions. Using the OsloCTM coupled with a microphysical aerosol parameterization, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled BC vertical distribution to uncertainties in the aerosol aging and scavenging processes in more detail. From this, we can quantify how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in its climate impacts. For most campaigns and regions, a short global-mean BC lifetime corresponds with the lowest model error and bias. On an aggregated level, sampling errors appear to be small, but larger differences are seen in individual regions. However, we also find that model-measurement discrepancies in BC vertical profiles cannot be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or parameter, at least in this model. Model development therefore needs to focus on improvements to individual processes, supported by a broad range of observational and experimental data, rather than tuning individual, effective parameters such as global BC lifetime.

Current Status and Challenges of Atmospheric Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atlas, R. M.; Gelaro, R.

2016-12-01

The issues of modern atmospheric data assimilation are fairly simple to comprehend but difficult to address, involving the combination of literally billions of model variables and tens of millions of observations daily. In addition to traditional meteorological variables such as wind, temperature pressure and humidity, model state vectors are being expanded to include explicit representation of precipitation, clouds, aerosols and atmospheric trace gases. At the same time, model resolutions are approaching single-kilometer scales globally and new observation types have error characteristics that are increasingly non-Gaussian. This talk describes the current status and challenges of atmospheric data assimilation, including an overview of current methodologies, the difficulty of estimating error statistics, and progress toward coupled earth system analyses.

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Model Experiments - ISOGAME

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pi, Xiaoqing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Stephens, Philip; Iijima, Bryron A.

2013-01-01

Modeling and imaging the Earth's ionosphere as well as understanding its structures, inhomogeneities, and disturbances is a key part of NASA's Heliophysics Directorate science roadmap. This invention provides a design tool for scientific missions focused on the ionosphere. It is a scientifically important and technologically challenging task to assess the impact of a new observation system quantitatively on our capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. This question is often raised whenever a new satellite system is proposed, a new type of data is emerging, or a new modeling technique is developed. The proposed constellation would be part of a new observation system with more low-Earth orbiters tracking more radio occultation signals broadcast by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) than those offered by the current GPS and COSMIC observation system. A simulation system was developed to fulfill this task. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) including first-principles and empirical ionospheric models, a multiple- dipole geomagnetic field model, data assimilation modules, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software.

A new data-based model of the global magnetospheric B-field: Modular structure, parameterization, first results.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsyganenko, Nikolai

2013-04-01

A new advanced model of the dynamical geomagnetosphere is presented, based on a large set of data from Geotail, Cluster, Polar, and Themis missions, taken during 138 storm events with SYM-H from -40 to -487nT over the period from 1996 through 2012 in the range of geocentric distances from ~3Re to ~60Re. The model magnetic field is confined within a realistic magnetopause, based on Lin et al. [JGRA, v.115, A04207, 2010] empirical boundary, driven by the dipole tilt angle, solar wind pressure, and IMF Bz. The magnetic field is modeled as a flexible combination of several modules, representing contributions from principal magnetospheric current systems such as the symmetric and partial ring currents (SRC/PRC), Region 1 and 2 field-aligned currents (FAC), and the equatorial tail current sheet (TCS). In the inner magnetosphere the model field is dominated by contributions from the SRC and PRC, derived from realistic particle pressure models and represented by four modules, providing variable degree of dawn-dusk and noon-midnight asymmetry. The TCS field is comprised of several independent modules, ensuring sufficient flexibility of the model field and correct asymptotic values in the distant tail. The Region 2 FAC is an inherent part of the PRC, derived from the continuity of the azimuthal current. The Region 1 FAC is modulated by the diurnal and seasonal variations of the dipole tilt angle, in agreement with earlier statistical studies [Ohtani et al., JGRA, v.110, A09230, 2005]. Following the approach introduced in our earlier TS05 model [Tsyganenko and Sitnov, JGRA, v.110, A03208, 2005], contributions from all individual field sources are parameterized by the external driving functions, derived from the solar wind/IMF OMNI database as solutions of dynamic equations with source and loss terms in the right-hand side. Global magnetic configurations and their evolution during magnetospheric storms are analyzed and discussed in context of the model results.

Food crises, food regimes and food movements: rumblings of reform or tides of transformation?

PubMed

Holt Giménez, Eric; Shattuck, Annie

2011-01-01

This article addresses the potential for food movements to bring about substantive changes to the current global food system. After describing the current corporate food regime, we apply Karl Polanyi's 'double-movement' thesis on capitalism to explain the regime's trends of neoliberalism and reform. Using the global food crisis as a point of departure, we introduce a comparative analytical framework for different political and social trends within the corporate food regime and global food movements, characterizing them as 'Neoliberal', 'Reformist', 'Progressive', and 'Radical', respectively, and describe each trend based on its discourse, model, and key actors, approach to the food crisis, and key documents. After a discussion of class, political permeability, and tensions within the food movements, we suggest that the current food crisis offers opportunities for strategic alliances between Progressive and Radical trends within the food movement. We conclude that while the food crisis has brought a retrenchment of neoliberalization and weak calls for reform, the worldwide growth of food movements directly and indirectly challenge the legitimacy and hegemony of the corporate food regime. Regime change will require sustained pressure from a strong global food movement, built on durable alliances between Progressive and Radical trends.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

PubMed

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.

2015-12-01

Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

A Land System representation for global assessments and land-use modeling.

PubMed

van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

2012-10-01

Current global scale land-change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land-use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human-environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi-)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land-use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land-change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub-global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

PubMed Central

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Gosling, Simon N.; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T.; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-01-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. PMID:24344289

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowland, E. Emma; Keller, Christoph; Nielsen, J. Eric; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua;

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth system models and integrated assessment models.

A coronal magnetic field model with horizontal volume and sheet currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Xuepu; Hoeksema, J. Todd

1994-01-01

When globally mapping the observed photospheric magnetic field into the corona, the interaction of the solar wind and magnetic field has been treated either by imposing source surface boundary conditions that tacitly require volume currents outside the source surface or by limiting the interaction to thin current sheets between oppositely directed field regions. Yet observations and numerical Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) calculations suggest the presence of non-force-free volume currents throughout the corona as well as thin current sheets in the neighborhoods of the interfaces between closed and open field lines or between oppositely directed open field lines surrounding coronal helmet-streamer structures. This work presents a model including both horizontal volume currents and streamer sheet currents. The present model builds on the magnetostatic equilibria developed by Bogdan and Low and the current-sheet modeling technique developed by Schatten. The calculation uses synoptic charts of the line-of-sight component of the photospheric magnetic field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Comparison of an MHD model with the calculated model results for the case of a dipole field and comparison of eclipse observations with calculations for CR 1647 (near solar minimum) show that this horizontal current-current-sheet model reproduces polar plumes and axes of corona streamers better than the source-surface model and reproduces polar plumes and axes of corona streamers better than the source-surface model and reproduces coro nal helmet structures better than the current-sheet model.

Estimating Morning Change in Land Surface Temperature from MODIS Day/Night Observations: Applications for Surface Energy Balance Modeling.

PubMed

Hain, Christopher R; Anderson, Martha C

2017-10-16

Observations of land surface temperature (LST) are crucial for the monitoring of surface energy fluxes from satellite. Methods that require high temporal resolution LST observations (e.g., from geostationary orbit) can be difficult to apply globally because several geostationary sensors are required to attain near-global coverage (60°N to 60°S). While these LST observations are available from polar-orbiting sensors, providing global coverage at higher spatial resolutions, the temporal sampling (twice daily observations) can pose significant limitations. For example, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model, used for monitoring evapotranspiration and drought, requires an observation of the morning change in LST - a quantity not directly observable from polar-orbiting sensors. Therefore, we have developed and evaluated a data-mining approach to estimate the mid-morning rise in LST from a single sensor (2 observations per day) of LST from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on the Aqua platform. In general, the data-mining approach produced estimates with low relative error (5 to 10%) and statistically significant correlations when compared against geostationary observations. This approach will facilitate global, near real-time applications of ALEXI at higher spatial and temporal coverage from a single sensor than currently achievable with current geostationary datasets.

Quantified carbon input for maintaining existing soil organic carbon stocks in global wheat systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in croplands is a crucial component of global carbon (C) cycle. Depending on local environmental conditions and management practices, typical C input is generally required to reduce or reverse C loss in agricultural soils. No studies have quantified the critical C input for maintaining SOC at global scale with high resolution. Such information will provide a baseline map for assessing soil C dynamics under potential changes in management practices and climate, and thus enable development of management strategies to reduce C footprint from farm to regional scales. We used the soil C model RothC to simulate the critical C input rates needed to maintain existing soil C level at 0.1°× 0.1° resolution in global wheat systems. On average, the critical C input was estimated to be 2.0 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, with large spatial variability depending on local soil and climatic conditions. Higher C inputs are required in wheat system of central United States and western Europe, mainly due to the higher current soil C stocks present in these regions. The critical C input could be effectively estimated using a summary model driven by current SOC level, mean annual temperature, precipitation, and soil clay content.

Skill Testing a Three-Dimensional Global Tide Model to Historical Current Meter Records

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-17

up to 20% weaker skill in the Southern Ocean. Citation: Timko, P. G., B. K. Arbic, J. G. Richman, R . B. Scott, E. J. Metzger, and A. J. Wallcraft (2013...model were identified from a current meter archive ( CMA ) of approximately 9000 unique time series previously used by Scott et al. [2010] and Timko et al...2012]. The CMA spans 40 years of observations. Some of the velocity records used in this study represents individ- ual depth bins from ADCP’s. The

Global mismatch between fishing dependency and larval supply from marine reserves

PubMed Central

Andrello, Marco; Guilhaumon, François; Albouy, Camille; Parravicini, Valeriano; Scholtens, Joeri; Verley, Philippe; Barange, Manuel; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Manel, Stéphanie; Mouillot, David

2017-01-01

Marine reserves are viewed as flagship tools to protect exploited species and to contribute to the effective management of coastal fisheries. Yet, the extent to which marine reserves are globally interconnected and able to effectively seed areas, where fisheries are most critical for food and livelihood security is largely unknown. Using a hydrodynamic model of larval dispersal, we predict that most marine reserves are not interconnected by currents and that their potential benefits to fishing areas are presently limited, since countries with high dependency on coastal fisheries receive very little larval supply from marine reserves. This global mismatch could be reversed, however, by placing new marine reserves in areas sufficiently remote to minimize social and economic costs but sufficiently connected through sea currents to seed the most exploited fisheries and endangered ecosystems. PMID:28691710

Plasma Sheet Injections into the Inner Magnetosphere: Two-way Coupled OpenGGCM-RCM model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeder, J.; Cramer, W. D.; Toffoletto, F.; Gilson, M. L.; Hu, B.

2017-12-01

Plasma sheet injections associated with low flux tube entropy bubbles have been found to be the primary means of mass transport from the plasma sheet to the inner magnetosphere. A two-way coupled global magnetosphere-ring current model, where the magnetosphere is modeled by the OpenGGCM MHD model and the ring current is modeled by the Rice Convection Model (RCM), is used to determine the frequency of association of bubbles with injections and inward plasma transport, as well as typical injection characteristics. Multiple geomagnetic storms and quiet periods are simulated to track and characterize inward flow behavior. Dependence on geomagnetic activity levels or drivers is also examined.

Mars Digital Image Model 2.1 Control Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Archinal, B. A.; Kirk, R. L.; Duxbury, T. C.; Lee, E. M.; Sucharski, R.; Cook, D.

2003-01-01

USGS is currently preparing a new version of its global Mars digital image mosaic, which will be known as MDIM 2.1. As part of this process we are completing a new photogrammetric solution of the global Mars control network. This is an improved version of the network established earlier by RAND and USGS personnel, as partially described previously. MDIM 2.1 will have many improvements over earlier Viking Orbiter (VO) global mosaics. Geometrically, it will be an orthoimage product, draped on Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) derived topography, thus accounting properly for the commonly oblique VO imagery. Through the network being described here it will be tied to the newly defined IAU/IAG 2000 Mars coordinate system via ties to MOLA data. Thus, MDIM 2.1 will provide complete global orthorectified imagery coverage of Mars at the resolution of 1/256 deg of MDIM 2.0, and be compatible with MOLA and other products produced in the current coordinate system.

Pseudo Phase Plane and Fractional Calculus modeling of western global economic downturn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenreiro Machado, J. A.; Mata, Maria Eugénia

2015-05-01

This paper applies Pseudo Phase Plane (PPP) and Fractional Calculus (FC) mathematical tools for modeling world economies. A challenging global rivalry among the largest international economies began in the early 1970s, when the post-war prosperity declined. It went on, up to now. If some worrying threatens may exist actually in terms of possible ambitious military aggression, invasion, or hegemony, countries' PPP relative positions can tell something on the current global peaceful equilibrium. A global political downturn of the USA on global hegemony in favor of Asian partners is possible, but can still be not accomplished in the next decades. If the 1973 oil chock has represented the beginning of a long-run recession, the PPP analysis of the last four decades (1972-2012) does not conclude for other partners' global dominance (Russian, Brazil, Japan, and Germany) in reaching high degrees of similarity with the most developed world countries. The synergies of the proposed mathematical tools lead to a better understanding of the dynamics underlying world economies and point towards the estimation of future states based on the memory of each time series.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Towards the impact of eddies on the response of the global ocean circulation to Southern Ocean gateway opening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2014-05-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. A long-standing hypothesis is that the formation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current due to opening/deepening of Southern Ocean gateways led to glaciation of the Antarctic continent. However, while this hypothesis remains controversial, its assessment via coupled climate model simulations depends crucially on the spatial resolution in the ocean component. More precisely, only high-resolution modeling of the turbulent ocean circulation is capable of adequately describing reorganizations in the ocean flow field and related changes in turbulent heat transport. In this study, for the first time results of a high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed Drake Passage are presented. Changes in global ocean temperatures, heat transport, and ocean circulation (e.g., Meridional Overturning Circulation and Antarctic Coastal Current) are established by comparison with an open Drake Passage high-resolution reference simulation. Finally, corresponding low-resolution simulations are also analyzed. The results highlight the essential impact of the ocean eddy field in palaeoclimatic change.

Mesospheric Simulations with the NOGAPS-ALPHA model: Applications to the Summer Polar Mesosphere and AIM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siskind, D. E.; Eckermann, S. D.; McCormack, J. P.; Hoppel, K. W.; Russell, J. M.; Bailey, S.; Hervig, M.; Rusch, D.

2007-12-01

The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), the Department of Defense's global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, consists of two main components: the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS) and a global spectral general circulation model (GCM) for forecasting. NRL researchers are currently developing an Advanced-Level Physics High-Altitude (ALPHA) NOGAPS prototype that extends the currently operational 1 hPa upper boundary of NOGAPS through the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to ~110 km. We report results of preliminary experiments with this NOGAPS-ALPHA system during May-June 2007, focused on the northern hemisphere (NH) summer mesosphere observed from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite. These AIM-period NOGAPS-ALPHA experiments have two main goals: to provide global modeling support for AIM science and to allow objective validation of these new NOGAPS-ALPHA MLT fields using independent observations from AIM. We report results of runs which assimilate temperature and water vapor data from the SABER and MLS instruments up to ~0.01 hPa. We investigate the development of the cold NH summer mesopause in NOGAPS-ALPHA and its sensitivity to parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag (GWD) and radiative heating/cooling by comparing with temperatures and water vapor measured by AIM's SOFIE instrument. We can also compare the variability in the NOGAPS-ALPHA temperature and water vapor fields with mesospheric cloud occurrence statistics measured by CIPS on AIM.

Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.

PubMed

Henry, R C; Engström, K; Olin, S; Alexander, P; Arneth, A; Rounsevell, M D A

2018-01-01

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary

PubMed Central

Olin, S.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.

2018-01-01

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies. PMID:29566091

CFCI3 (CFC-11): UV Absorption Spectrum Temperature Dependence Measurements and the Impact on Atmospheric Lifetime and Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgillen, Max R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Burkholder, James B.

2014-01-01

CFCl3 (CFC-11) is both an atmospheric ozone-depleting and potent greenhouse gas that is removed primarily via stratospheric UV photolysis. Uncertainty in the temperature dependence of its UV absorption spectrum is a significant contributing factor to the overall uncertainty in its global lifetime and, thus, model calculations of stratospheric ozone recovery and climate change. In this work, the CFC-11 UV absorption spectrum was measured over a range of wavelength (184.95 - 230 nm) and temperature (216 - 296 K). We report a spectrum temperature dependence that is less than currently recommended for use in atmospheric models. The impact on its atmospheric lifetime was quantified using a 2-D model and the spectrum parameterization developed in this work. The obtained global annually averaged lifetime was 58.1 +- 0.7 years (2 sigma uncertainty due solely to the spectrum uncertainty). The lifetime is slightly reduced and the uncertainty significantly reduced from that obtained using current spectrum recommendations

Ice-nucleating particle emissions from photochemically aged diesel and biodiesel exhaust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schill, G. P.; Jathar, S. H.; Kodros, J. K.; Levin, E. J. T.; Galang, A. M.; Friedman, B.; Link, M. F.; Farmer, D. K.; Pierce, J. R.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; DeMott, P. J.

2016-05-01

Immersion-mode ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations from an off-road diesel engine were measured using a continuous-flow diffusion chamber at -30°C. Both petrodiesel and biodiesel were utilized, and the exhaust was aged up to 1.5 photochemically equivalent days using an oxidative flow reactor. We found that aged and unaged diesel exhaust of both fuels is not likely to contribute to atmospheric INP concentrations at mixed-phase cloud conditions. To explore this further, a new limit-of-detection parameterization for ice nucleation on diesel exhaust was developed. Using a global-chemical transport model, potential black carbon INP (INPBC) concentrations were determined using a current literature INPBC parameterization and the limit-of-detection parameterization. Model outputs indicate that the current literature parameterization likely overemphasizes INPBC concentrations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. These results highlight the need to integrate new INPBC parameterizations into global climate models as generalized INPBC parameterizations are not valid for diesel exhaust.

Long-term abatement potential and current policy trajectories in Latin American countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clarke, Leon; McFarland, James; Octaviano, Claudia

2016-05-01

This paper provides perspectives on the role of Latin American and Latin American countries in meeting global abatement goals, based on the scenarios developed through the CLIMACAP-LAMP modeling study.

Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

2013-01-01

An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

A Hybrid Satellite-Terrestrial Approach to Aeronautical Communication Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerczewski, Robert J.; Chomos, Gerald J.; Griner, James H.; Mainger, Steven W.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Kachmar, Brian A.

2000-01-01

Rapid growth in air travel has been projected to continue for the foreseeable future. To maintain a safe and efficient national and global aviation system, significant advances in communications systems supporting aviation are required. Satellites will increasingly play a critical role in the aeronautical communications network. At the same time, current ground-based communications links, primarily very high frequency (VHF), will continue to be employed due to cost advantages and legacy issues. Hence a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network, or group of networks, will emerge. The increased complexity of future aeronautical communications networks dictates that system-level modeling be employed to obtain an optimal system fulfilling a majority of user needs. The NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating the current and potential future state of aeronautical communications, and is developing a simulation and modeling program to research future communications architectures for national and global aeronautical needs. This paper describes the primary requirements, the current infrastructure, and emerging trends of aeronautical communications, including a growing role for satellite communications. The need for a hybrid communications system architecture approach including both satellite and ground-based communications links is explained. Future aeronautical communication network topologies and key issues in simulation and modeling of future aeronautical communications systems are described.

The Use of the Regional Navy Coastal Ocean Model (RNCOM) by the US Navy in Operational Oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayburn, J. T.

2016-02-01

The operational RNCOM is a 1/30° resolution nested model run daily by the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), Stennis Space Center, Mississippi. Operational RNCOM areas are used in combination with the Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) to provide full global model coverage with enhanced resolution for temperature, salinity, currents in key areas. This talk will discuss two aspects of RNCOM. First, it will focus on how the model is configured. As a nested model, issues to consider include the source of boundary condition, boundary placement, and observational inputs. Secondly, this talk will focus on the strengths and weaknesses RNCOM demonstrates in accurately characterizing ocean condition with respect to HYCOM and how this regional model's output is used by NAVOCEANO Ocean Forecasters to develop operational forecasts.

On the use of tower-flux measurements to assess the performance of global ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Maayar, M.; Kucharik, C.

2003-04-01

Global ecosystem models are important tools for the study of biospheric processes and their responses to environmental changes. Such models typically translate knowledge, gained from local observations, into estimates of regional or even global outcomes of ecosystem processes. A typical test of ecosystem models consists of comparing their output against tower-flux measurements of land surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and mass. To perform such tests, models are typically run using detailed information on soil properties (texture, carbon content,...) and vegetation structure observed at the experimental site (e.g., vegetation height, vegetation phenology, leaf photosynthetic characteristics,...). In global simulations, however, earth's vegetation is typically represented by a limited number of plant functional types (PFT; group of plant species that have similar physiological and ecological characteristics). For each PFT (e.g., temperate broadleaf trees, boreal conifer evergreen trees,...), which can cover a very large area, a set of typical physiological and physical parameters are assigned. Thus, a legitimate question arises: How does the performance of a global ecosystem model run using detailed site-specific parameters compare with the performance of a less detailed global version where generic parameters are attributed to a group of vegetation species forming a PFT? To answer this question, we used a multiyear dataset, measured at two forest sites with contrasting environments, to compare seasonal and interannual variability of surface-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon predicted by the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Two types of simulations were, thus, performed: a) Detailed runs: observed vegetation characteristics (leaf area index, vegetation height,...) and soil carbon content, in addition to climate and soil type, are specified for model run; and b) Generic runs: when only observed climates and soil types at the measurement sites are used to run the model. The generic runs were performed for the number of years equal to the current age of the forests, initialized with no vegetation and a soil carbon density equal to zero.

Improving Subtropical Boundary Layer Cloudiness in the 2011 NCEP GFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fletcher, J. K.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Xiao, Heng

2014-09-23

The current operational version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows significant low cloud bias. These biases also appear in the Coupled Forecast System (CFS), which is developed from the GFS. These low cloud biases degrade seasonal and longer climate forecasts, particularly of short-wave cloud radiative forcing, and affect predicted sea surface temperature. Reducing this bias in the GFS will aid the development of future CFS versions and contributes to NCEP's goal of unified weather and climate modelling. Changes are made to the shallow convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisations to make them more consistentmore » with current knowledge of these processes and to reduce the low cloud bias. These changes are tested in a single-column version of GFS and in global simulations with GFS coupled to a dynamical ocean model. In the single-column model, we focus on changing parameters that set the following: the strength of shallow cumulus lateral entrainment, the conversion of updraught liquid water to precipitation and grid-scale condensate, shallow cumulus cloud top, and the effect of shallow convection in stratocumulus environments. Results show that these changes improve the single-column simulations when compared to large eddy simulations, in particular through decreasing the precipitation efficiency of boundary layer clouds. These changes, combined with a few other model improvements, also reduce boundary layer cloud and albedo biases in global coupled simulations.« less

History, Structure and Agency in Global Health Governance Comment on "Global Health Governance Challenges 2016 - Are We Ready?"

PubMed

Gill, Stephen; Benatar, Solomon R

2016-08-29

Ilona Kickbusch's thought provoking editorial is criticized in this commentary, partly because she fails to refer to previous critical work on the global conditions and policies that sustain inequality, poverty, poor health and damage to the biosphere and, as a result, she misreads global power and elides consideration of the fundamental historical structures of political and material power that shape agency in global health governance. We also doubt that global health can be improved through structures and processes of multilateralism that are premised on the continued reproduction of the ecologically myopic and socially unsustainable market civilization model of capitalist development that currently prevails in the world economy. This model drives net financial flows from poor to rich countries and from the poor to the affluent and super wealthy individuals. By contrast, we suggest that significant progress in global health requires a profound and socially just restructuring of global power, greater global solidarity and the "development of sustainability." © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

A new model of the global biogeochemical cycle of carbonyl sulfide - Part 2: Use of carbonyl sulfide to constrain gross primary productivity in current vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Launois, T.; Peylin, P.; Belviso, S.; Poulter, B.

2015-08-01

Clear analogies between carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and carbon dioxide (CO2) diffusion pathways through leaves have been revealed by experimental studies, with plant uptake playing an important role for the atmospheric budget of both species. Here we use atmospheric OCS to evaluate the gross primary production (GPP) of three dynamic global vegetation models (Lund-Potsdam-Jena, LPJ; National Center for Atmospheric Research - Community Land Model 4, NCAR-CLM4; and Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems, ORCHIDEE). Vegetation uptake of OCS is modeled as a linear function of GPP and leaf relative uptake (LRU), the ratio of OCS to CO2 deposition velocities of plants. New parameterizations for the non-photosynthetic sinks (oxic soils, atmospheric oxidation) and biogenic sources (oceans and anoxic soils) of OCS are also provided. Despite new large oceanic emissions, global OCS budgets created with each vegetation model show exceeding sinks by several hundred Gg S yr-1. An inversion of the surface fluxes (optimization of a global scalar which accounts for flux uncertainties) led to balanced OCS global budgets, as atmospheric measurements suggest, mainly by drastic reduction (up to -50 %) in soil and vegetation uptakes. The amplitude of variations in atmospheric OCS mixing ratios is mainly dictated by the vegetation sink over the Northern Hemisphere. This allows for bias recognition in the GPP representations of the three selected models. The main bias patterns are (i) the terrestrial GPP of ORCHIDEE at high northern latitudes is currently overestimated, (ii) the seasonal variations of the GPP are out of phase in the NCAR-CLM4 model, showing a maximum carbon uptake too early in spring in the northernmost ecosystems, (iii) the overall amplitude of the seasonal variations of GPP in NCAR-CLM4 is too small, and (iv) for the LPJ model, the GPP is slightly out of phase for the northernmost ecosystems and the respiration fluxes might be too large in summer in the Northern Hemisphere. These results rely on the robustness of the OCS modeling framework and, in particular, the choice of the LRU values (assumed constant in time) and the parameterization of soil OCS uptake with small seasonal variations. Refined optimization with regional-scale and seasonally varying coefficients might help to test some of these hypothesis.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subsetmore » of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.« less

Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of horizontal precipitation (not included in the models) and weaknesses in the models structures; for example the poor performance of the VIC model in base flow dominated basins. In order to improve these simulations a strategy based on a hydrological model ensemble is currently being developed in the case study. Results from the global models, show that these consistently tend to overestimate runoff. This may be due to the coarse resolution used (50 km), biases in the ERA-Interim precipitation forcing, and the different partitioning within the global models of the precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff. It is expected that within the Tier II hydrological reanalysis, where the models will produce outputs at 25 km resolution, some improvements may be identified.

What did we do and what can we do with our global soil resources?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoorvogel, Jetse

2017-04-01

Our global soil resources increasingly meet the headlines: soil degradation leads to irreversible changes and a loss of the global production potential, soil resources play a key role to reach the sustainable development goals, and soils are seen as a potential solution to some of the climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. However, global assessments of soil degradation, soil resources, and the potential of soils to provide ecosystem services are not very consistent. This study aims to contribute to the discussion by providing a realistic opportunity space on the options for our soil resources. First, the natural and current soil conditions are estimated using the S-World methodology. S-World has been developed to provide global maps of soil properties at a 30 arc-second resolution for environmental modelling. By running the S-world methodology for current but also for natural land cover, natural and current soil conditions are estimated. This analysis tells us what we did to our global soil resources. Subsequently, the same methodology is used to analyse a range of different scenarios for the future to explore the potential for soil restoration and carbon sequestration. Although the actual management interventions required are not analysed, the analysis does provide the opportunity space and thus what we can do with our soil resources in terms of realistic ranges. The results are interpreted in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals and the recent 4‰-initiative for climate change mitigation.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-09-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the global ozone (O3) chemistry, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb in annual average afternoon O3. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of urban-rural contrast and other small-scale processes. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with enhancements by 5 % in the lifetimes of methyl chloroform (from 5.58 to 5.87 yr) and methane (from 9.63 to 10.12 yr), bringing them closer to observation-based estimates. Improving model representations of small-scale processes are a critical step forward to understanding the global tropospheric chemistry.

Including eddies in global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

The ocean is a turbulent fluid that is driven by winds and by surface exchanges of heat and moisture. It is as important as the atmosphere in governing climate through heat distribution, but so little is known about the ocean that it remains a “final frontier” on the face of the Earth. Many ocean currents are truly global in extent, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the “conveyor belt” that connects the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans by flows around the southern tips of Africa and South America. It has long been a dream of some oceanographers to supplement the very limited observational knowledge by reconstructing the currents of the world ocean from the first principles of physics on a computer. However, until very recently, the prospect of doing this was thwarted by the fact that fluctuating currents known as “mesoscale eddies” could not be explicitly included in the calculation.

Evaluation of simulated biospheric carbon dioxide fluxes and atmospheric concentrations using global in situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, S.; Johnson, M. S.; Potter, C. S.; Genovese, V. B.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in situ observations.

B33C-0612: Evaluation of Simulated Biospheric Carbon Dioxide Fluxes and Atmospheric Concentrations Using Global in Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.; Potter, Christopher S.; Genovese, Vanessa

2016-01-01

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in situ observations.

Light and compressed gluinos at the LHC via string theory.

PubMed

AbdusSalam, S S

2017-01-01

In this article, we show that making global fits of string theory model parameters to data is an interesting mechanism for probing, mapping and forecasting connections of the theory to real world physics. We considered a large volume scenario (LVS) with D3-brane matter fields and supersymmetry breaking. A global fit of the parameters to low-energy data shows that the set of LVS models are associated with light gluinos which are quasi-degenerate with the neutralinos and charginos they can promptly decay into, and thus they are possibly hidden to current LHC gluino search strategies.

Agricultural Management Practices Explain Variation in Global Yield Gaps of Major Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

2010-12-01

The continued expansion and intensification of agriculture are key drivers of global environmental change. Meeting a doubling of food demand in the next half-century will further induce environmental change, requiring either large cropland expansion into carbon- and biodiversity-rich tropical forests or increasing yields on existing croplands. Closing the “yield gaps” between the most and least productive farmers on current agricultural lands is a necessary and major step towards preserving natural ecosystems and meeting future food demand. Here we use global climate, soils, and cropland datasets to quantify yield gaps for major crops using equal-area climate analogs. Consistent with previous studies, we find large yield gaps for many crops in Eastern Europe, tropical Africa, and parts of Mexico. To analyze the drivers of yield gaps, we collected sub-national agricultural management data and built a global dataset of fertilizer application rates for over 160 crops. We constructed empirical crop yield models for each climate analog using the global management information for 17 major crops. We find that our climate-specific models explain a substantial amount of the global variation in yields. These models could be widely applied to identify management changes needed to close yield gaps, analyze the environmental impacts of agricultural intensification, and identify climate change adaptation techniques.

The Italian Middle School in a Deregulation Era: Modernity through Path-Dependency and Global Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mincu, Monica E.

2015-01-01

In the current context of intensified moves towards educational deregulation, the configuration of the Italian middle school and its relationship to education governance is an interesting case. Historically, it represents a unique example of the successful "decision-making" model of the welfarist era. Despite some internal constraints,…

Toward Group Problem Solving Guidelines for 21st Century Teams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ranieri, Kathryn L.

2004-01-01

Effective problem-solving skills are critical in dealing with ambiguous and often complex issues in the present-day leaner and globally diverse organizations. Yet respected, well-established problem-solving models may be misaligned within the current work environment, particularly within a team context. Models learned from a more bureaucratic,…

Religious Education, Communal Identity and National Politics in the Muslim World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leirvik, Oddbjorn

2004-01-01

This article discusses models for religious education in school in (parts of) the Muslim world and the implied relation between self and other, confessional and national identity. The question of how current models and discussions respond to globalized issues in education is also discussed. The last part of the article identifies triggering…

Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, J.; Heinke, J.; Gerten, D.; Haddeland, I.; Arnell, N. W.; Clark, D. B.; Dankers, R.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B. M.; Colon-Gonzalez, F. J.; Gosling, S. N.; KIM, H.; Liu, X.; Masaki, Y.; Portmann, F. T.; Satoh, Y.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; albrecht, T.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Kabat, P.

2013-12-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. In the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models (GCMs) and the latest greenhouse--gas concentration scenarios (RCPs) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that up to a global warming of 2°C above present (approx. 2.7°C above pre--industrial), each additional degree of warming will confront an additional approx. 7% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources; and that climate change will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500m3/capita/year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared to the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between present--day and 2°C, while indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2°C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both GCMs and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. Relative change in annual discharge at 2°C compared to present-day, under RCP8.5, from an ensemble of 11 global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by five global climate models (GCMs). Color hues show the multi-model mean change, and saturation shows the agreement on the sign of change across all GHM-GCM combinations (percentage of model runs agreeing on the sign).

EEJ and EIA variations during modeling substorms with different onset moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, M. V.

2015-11-01

This paper presents the simulations of four modeling substorms with different moment of substorm onset at 00:00 UT, 06:00 UT, 12:00 UT, and 18:00 UT for spring equinoctial conditions in solar activity minimum. Such investigation provides opportunity to examine the longitudinal dependence of ionospheric response to geomagnetic substorms. Model runs were performed using modified Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP). We analyzed GSM TIP simulated global distributions of foF2, low latitude electric field and ionospheric currents at geomagnetic equator and their disturbances at different UT moments substorms. We considered in more detail the variations in equatorial ionization anomaly, equatorial electrojet and counter equatorial electrojet during substorms. It is shown that: (1) the effects in EIA, EEJ and CEJ strongly depend on the substorm onset moment; (2) disturbances in equatorial zonal current density during substorm has significant longitudinal dependence; (3) the observed controversy on the equatorial ionospheric electric field signature of substorms can depend on the substorm onset moments, i.e., on the longitudinal variability in parameters of the thermosphere-ionosphere system.

Assessing Hydrological and Energy Budgets in Amazonia through Regional Downscaling, and Comparisons with Global Reanalysis Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, A.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2014-12-01

Although current global reanalyses provide reasonably accurate large-scale features of the atmosphere, systematic errors are still found in the hydrological and energy budgets of such products. In the tropics, precipitation is particularly challenging to model, which is also adversely affected by the scarcity of hydrometeorological datasets in the region. With the goal of producing downscaled analyses that are appropriate for a climate assessment at regional scales, a regional spectral model has used a combination of precipitation assimilation with scale-selective bias correction. The latter is similar to the spectral nudging technique, which prevents the departure of the regional model's internal states from the large-scale forcing. The target area in this study is the Amazon region, where large errors are detected in reanalysis precipitation. To generate the downscaled analysis, the regional climate model used NCEP/DOE R2 global reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and assimilated NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHed precipitation (CMORPH), available at 0.25-degree resolution, every 3 hours. The regional model's precipitation was successfully brought closer to the observations, in comparison to the NCEP global reanalysis products, as a result of the impact of a precipitation assimilation scheme on cumulus-convection parameterization, and improved boundary forcing achieved through a new version of scale-selective bias correction. Water and energy budget terms were also evaluated against global reanalyses and other datasets.

Global mean dynamic topography based on GOCE data and Wiener filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilardoni, Maddalena; Reguzzoni, Mirko; Albertella, Alberta

2015-04-01

A mean dynamic ocean topography (MDT) has been computed by using a GOCE-only gravity model and a given mean sea surface (MSS) obtained from satellite altimetry. Since the used gravity model, i.e. the fifth release of the time-wise solution covering the full mission lifetime, is truncated at a maximum harmonic degree of 280, the obtained MDT has to be consistently filtered. This has been done globally by using the spherical harmonic representation and following a Wiener minimization principle. This global filtering approach is convenient from the computational point of view but requires to have MDT values all over the Earth surface and therefore to fill the continents with fictitious data. The main improvements with respect to the already presented results are in the MDT filling procedure (to guarantee that the global signal has the same covariance of the one over the oceans), in the error modelling of the input MSS and in the error estimation of the filtered MDT and of the corresponding geostrophic velocities. The impact of GOCE data in the ocean circulation global modelling has been assessed by comparing the pattern of the obtained geostrophic currents with those computed by using EGM2008. Comparisons with independent circulation data based on drifters and other MDT models have been also performed with the aim of evaluating the accuracy of the obtained results.

On direct internal methane steam reforming kinetics in operating solid oxide fuel cells with nickel-ceria anodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thallam Thattai, A.; van Biert, L.; Aravind, P. V.

2017-12-01

Major operating challenges remain to safely operate methane fuelled solid oxide fuel cells due to undesirable temperature gradients across the porous anode and carbon deposition. This article presents an experimental study on methane steam reforming (MSR) global kinetics for single operating SOFCs with Ni-GDC (gadolinium doped ceria) anodes for low steam to carbon (S/C) ratios and moderate current densities. The study points out the hitherto insufficient research on MSR global and intrinsic kinetics for operating SOFCs with complete Ni-ceria anodes. Further, it emphasizes the need to develop readily applicable global kinetic models as a subsequent step from previously reported state-of-art and complex intrinsic models. Two rate expressions of the Power law (PL) and Langmuir-Hinshelwood (LH) type have been compared and based on the analysis, limitations of using previously proposed rate expressions for Ni catalytic beds to study MSR kinetics for complete cermet anodes have been identified. Firstly, it has been shown that methane reforming on metallic (Ni) current collectors may not be always negligible, contrary to literature reports. Both PL and LH kinetic models predict significantly different local MSR reaction rate and species partial pressure distributions along the normalized reactor length, indicating a strong need for further experimental verifications.

A Real-time 1/16° Global Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shriver, J. F.; Rhodes, R. C.; Hurlburt, H. E.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Kara, A. B.

2001-05-01

A 1/16° eddy-resolving global ocean prediction system that uses the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) has been transitioned to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO), Stennis Space Center, MS. The system gives a real time view of the ocean down to the 50-100 mile scale of ocean eddies and the meandering of ocean currents and fronts, a view with unprecedented resolution and clarity, and demonstrated forecast skill for a month or more for many ocean features. It has been running in real time at NAVO since 19 Oct 2000 with assimilation of real-time altimeter sea surface height (SSH) data (currently ERS-2, GFO and TOPEX/POSEIDON) and sea surface temperature (SST). The model is updated daily and 4-day forecasts are made daily. 30-day forecasts are made once a week. Nowcasts and forecasts using this model are viewable on the web, including SSH, SST and 30-day forecast verification statistics for many zoom regions. The NRL web address is http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom/index.html. The NAVO web address is: http://www.navo.navy.mil. Click on "Operational Products", then "Product Search Form", then "Product Type View", then select "Model Navy Layered Ocean Model" and a region and click on "Submit Query". This system is used at NAVO for ocean front and eddy analyses and predictions and to provide accurate sea surface height for use in computing synthetic temperature and salinity profiles, among other applications.

Iron control on global productivity: an efficient inverse model of the ocean's coupled phosphate and iron cycles.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquier, B.; Holzer, M.; Frants, M.

2016-02-01

We construct a data-constrained mechanistic inverse model of the ocean's coupled phosphorus and iron cycles. The nutrient cycling is embedded in a data-assimilated steady global circulation. Biological nutrient uptake is parameterized in terms of nutrient, light, and temperature limitations on growth for two classes of phytoplankton that are not transported explicitly. A matrix formulation of the discretized nutrient tracer equations allows for efficient numerical solutions, which facilitates the objective optimization of the key biogeochemical parameters. The optimization minimizes the misfit between the modelled and observed nutrient fields of the current climate. We systematically assess the nonlinear response of the biological pump to changes in the aeolian iron supply for a variety of scenarios. Specifically, Green-function techniques are employed to quantify in detail the pathways and timescales with which those perturbations are propagated throughout the world oceans, determining the global teleconnections that mediate the response of the global ocean ecosystem. We confirm previous findings from idealized studies that increased iron fertilization decreases biological production in the subtropical gyres and we quantify the counterintuitive and asymmetric response of global productivity to increases and decreases in the aeolian iron supply.

A global dataset of sub-daily rainfall indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Blenkinsop, S.; Guerreiro, S.; Li, X.; Barbero, R.; Chan, S.; Lenderink, G.; Westra, S.

2017-12-01

It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. A new global sub-daily precipitation dataset has been constructed (data collection is ongoing). Metadata for each station has been calculated, detailing record lengths, missing data, station locations. A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community.

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

PubMed Central

Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cécile S.

2017-01-01

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P <0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and aCDOC (r = 0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250–800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within −0.074 mW cm−2 μm1 sr−1 of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of −10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability. PMID:29292403

Do we have the right models for scaling up health services to achieve the Millennium Development Goals?

PubMed

Subramanian, Savitha; Naimoli, Joseph; Matsubayashi, Toru; Peters, David H

2011-12-14

There is widespread agreement on the need for scaling up in the health sector to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). But many countries are not on track to reach the MDG targets. The dominant approach used by global health initiatives promotes uniform interventions and targets, assuming that specific technical interventions tested in one country can be replicated across countries to rapidly expand coverage. Yet countries scale up health services and progress against the MDGs at very different rates. Global health initiatives need to take advantage of what has been learned about scaling up. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify conceptual models for scaling up health in developing countries, with the articles assessed according to the practical concerns of how to scale up, including the planning, monitoring and implementation approaches. We identified six conceptual models for scaling up in health based on experience with expanding pilot projects and diffusion of innovations. They place importance on paying attention to enhancing organizational, functional, and political capabilities through experimentation and adaptation of strategies in addition to increasing the coverage and range of health services. These scaling up approaches focus on fostering sustainable institutions and the constructive engagement between end users and the provider and financing organizations. The current approaches to scaling up health services to reach the MDGs are overly simplistic and not working adequately. Rather than relying on blueprint planning and raising funds, an approach characteristic of current global health efforts, experience with alternative models suggests that more promising pathways involve "learning by doing" in ways that engage key stakeholders, uses data to address constraints, and incorporates results from pilot projects. Such approaches should be applied to current strategies to achieve the MDGs.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Predicting electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave amplitude from unstable ring current plasma conditions

DOE PAGES

Fu, Xiangrong; Cowee, Misa M.; Jordanova, Vania K.; ...

2016-11-01

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the Earth's inner magnetosphere are enhanced fluctuations driven unstable by ring current ion temperature anisotropy. EMIC waves can resonate with relativistic electrons and play an important role in precipitation of MeV radiation belt electrons. In this study, we investigate the excitation and saturation of EMIC instability in a homogeneous plasma using both linear theory and nonlinear hybrid simulations. We have explored a four-dimensional parameter space, carried out a large number of simulations, and derived a scaling formula that relates the saturation EMIC wave amplitude to initial plasma conditions. Finally, such scaling can be usedmore » in conjunction with ring current models like ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field to provide global dynamic EMIC wave maps that will be more accurate inputs for radiation belt modeling than statistical models.« less

Aerosol single-scattering albedo over the global oceans: Comparing PARASOL retrievals with AERONET, OMI, and AeroCom models estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lacagnina, Carlo; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Bian, Huisheng

2015-09-27

The aerosol Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over the global oceans is evaluated based on polarimetric measurements by the PARASOL satellite. The retrieved values for SSA and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) agree well with the ground-based measurements of the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The global coverage provided by the PARASOL observations represents a unique opportunity to evaluate SSA and AOD simulated by atmospheric transport model runs, as performed in the AeroCom framework. The SSA estimate provided by the AeroCom models is generally higher than the SSA retrieved from both PARASOL and AERONET. On the other hand, the mean simulated AOD ismore » about right or slightly underestimated compared with observations. An overestimate of the SSA by the models would suggest that these simulate an overly strong aerosol radiative cooling at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and underestimate it at surface. This implies that aerosols have a potential stronger impact within the atmosphere than currently simulated.« less

U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and (3) a...convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system. Ocean Model., 16, 141-159...a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal/estuarian applications. NCOM is

Assessment of Hybrid Coordinate Model Velocity Fields During Agulhas Return Current 2012 Cruise

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

Forecasts GDEM Generalized Digital Environmental Model GPS Global Positioning System HYCOM HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model MICOM Miami Isopycnal...speed profiles was climatology from the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ; Teague et al. 1990). Made operational in 1999, the Modular... GDEM was the only tool a naval oceanographer had at his or her disposal to characterize ocean conditions where in-situ observations could not be

"Globalized public health." A transdisciplinary comprehensive framework for analyzing contemporary globalization's influences on the field of public health.

PubMed

Lapaige, Véronique

2009-01-01

The current phase of globalization represents a "double-edged sword" challenge facing public health practitioners and health policy makers. The first "edge" throws light on two constructs in the field of public health: global health (formerly international health) and globalized public health. The second "edge" is that of global governance, and raises the question, "how can we construct public health regulations that adequately respond to both global and local complexities related to the two constructs mentioned earlier (global health and globalized public health)?" The two constructs call for the development of norms that will assure sustained population-wide health improvement and these two constructs have their own conceptual tools and theoretical models that permit a better understanding of them. In this paper, we introduce the "globalized public health" construct and we present an interactive comprehensive framework for critically analyzing contemporary globalization's influences on the field of public health. "Globalized public health", simultaneously a theoretical model and a conceptual framework, concerns the transformation of the field of public health in the sociohistorical context of globalization. The model is the fruit of an original theoretical research study conducted from 2005 to 2008 ("contextualized research," Gibbons' Mode II of knowledge production), founded on a QUAL-quant sequential mixed-method design. This research also reflects our political and ideological position, fuelled with aspirations of social democracy and cosmopolitical values. It is profoundly anchored in the pragmatic approach to globalization, looking to "reconcile" the market and equity. The model offers several features to users: (1) it is transdisciplinary; (2) it is interactive (CD-ROM); (3) it is nonlinear (nonlinear interrelations between the contextual globalization and the field of public health); (4) it is synchronic/diachronic (a double-crossed perspective permits analysis of global social change, the emergence of global agency and the transmutation of the field of public health, in the full complexity of their nonlinear interaction); (5) it offers five characteristics as an auto-eco-organized system of social interactions, or dynamic, nonlinear sociohistorical system. The model features a visual interface (five interrelated figures), a structure of 30 "integrator concepts" that integrates 114 other element-parts via 1,300 hypertext links. The model is both a knowledge translation tool and an interactive heuristic guide designed for practitioners and researchers in public health/community health/population health, as well as for decision-makers at all levels.

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

2011-11-01

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

A modeling study of the time-averaged electric currents in the vicinity of isolated thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driscoll, Kevin T.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Baginski, Michael E.

1992-01-01

A thorough examination of the results of a time-dependent computer model of a dipole thunderstorm revealed that there are numerous similarities between the time-averaged electrical properties and the steady-state properties of an active thunderstorm. Thus, the electrical behavior of the atmosphere in the vicinity of a thunderstorm can be determined with a formulation similar to what was first described by Holzer and Saxon (1952). From the Maxwell continuity equation of electric current, a simple analytical equation was derived that expresses a thunderstorm's average current contribution to the global electric circuit in terms of the generator current within the thundercloud, the intracloud lightning current, the cloud-to-ground lightning current, the altitudes of the charge centers, and the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. This equation was found to be nearly as accurate as the more computationally expensive numerical model, even when it is applied to a thunderstorm with a reduced conductivity thundercloud, a time-varying generator current, a varying flash rate, and a changing lightning mix.

Focus: global currents in national histories of science: the "global turn" and the history of science in Latin America.

PubMed

McCook, Stuart

2013-12-01

The "global turn" in the history of science offers new ways to think about how to do national and regional histories of science, in this case the history of science in Latin America. For example, it questions structuralist and diffusionist models of the spread of science and shows the often active role that people in Latin America (and the rest of the Global South) played in the construction of "universal" scientific knowledge. It suggests that even national or regional histories of science must be situated in a global context; all too often, such histories have treated global processes as a distant backdrop. At the same time, historians need to pay constant attention to the role of power in the construction of scientific knowledge. Finally, this essay highlights a methodological tool for writing globally inflected histories of science: the method of "following".

Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith R.

2016-08-01

The overall goal is to downscale ocean conditions predicted by an existing global prediction system and evaluate the results using observations from the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean. The first step is to develop a one-way nested regional model and evaluate its predictions using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system on the shelf because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is not because the regional model's dynamics are flawed but rather is the result of internally generated variability in deep water that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system. To overcome this problem, the next step is to spectrally nudge the regional model to the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the global system. It is shown this leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cutoff wavelength of the spectral nudging.

Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2004-01-01

This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions, flood potential and the state of drought. Seasonal climate model forecasts are downscaled and bias-corrected to drive the land surface model to provide hydrological forecasts and drought products out 6-9 months. The system relies on historic reconstructions of water variability over the 20th century, which forms the background climatology to which current conditions can be assessed. Future changes in water availability and drought risk are quantified based on bias-corrected and downscaled climate model projections that are used to drive the land surface models. For regions with lack of on-the-ground data we are field-testing low-cost environmental sensors and along with new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, integrating these into the system for improved monitoring and prediction. We provide an overview of the system and some examples of real-world applications to flood and drought events, with a focus on Africa.

Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint.

PubMed

Jaramillo, Fernando; Destouni, Georgia

2015-12-04

Flow regulation and irrigation alter local freshwater conditions, but their global effects are highly uncertain. We investigated these global effects from 1901 to 2008, using hydroclimatic observations in 100 large hydrological basins. Globally, we find consistent and dominant effects of increasing relative evapotranspiration from both activities, and decreasing temporal runoff variability from flow regulation. The evapotranspiration effect increases the long-term average human consumption of fresh water by 3563 ± 979 km(3)/year from 1901-1954 to 1955-2008. This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 ± 979 km(3)/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

[The globalization of health].

PubMed

Franco, A

2003-01-01

In this article diverse aspects of the relationship between health and globalization are explored. Different dimensions of globalization (economic, technological, cultural and political) are considered. Aspects of its effects on health (epidemiological, ethical and environmental), as well as its relationship with public health, power distribution and equity are discussed. Data that demonstrate the globalization of risks and of diseases, due to the current model of international relations and geographical mobility, are analyzed. The article defends the globalization of health and integrates renewed concepts and scientific advances in public health with politics, social strategies and new organizational forms of the practice of public health. Finally, we discuss the opportunities that have been provided by globalization since the middle of the last century for redefining world government and for developing local movements, based on solidarity and a new concept of politics, which could favor the universalization of health.

Improving Global Models of Remotely Sensed Ocean Chlorophyll Content Using Partial Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholizadeh, H.; Robeson, S. M.

2015-12-01

Empirical models have been widely used to estimate global chlorophyll content from remotely sensed data. Here, we focus on the standard NASA empirical models that use blue-green band ratios. These band ratio ocean color (OC) algorithms are in the form of fourth-order polynomials and the parameters of these polynomials (i.e. coefficients) are estimated from the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Data set (NOMAD). Most of the points in this data set have been sampled from tropical and temperate regions. However, polynomial coefficients obtained from this data set are used to estimate chlorophyll content in all ocean regions with different properties such as sea-surface temperature, salinity, and downwelling/upwelling patterns. Further, the polynomial terms in these models are highly correlated. In sum, the limitations of these empirical models are as follows: 1) the independent variables within the empirical models, in their current form, are correlated (multicollinear), and 2) current algorithms are global approaches and are based on the spatial stationarity assumption, so they are independent of location. Multicollinearity problem is resolved by using partial least squares (PLS). PLS, which transforms the data into a set of independent components, can be considered as a combined form of principal component regression (PCR) and multiple regression. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is also used to investigate the validity of spatial stationarity assumption. GWR solves a regression model over each sample point by using the observations within its neighbourhood. PLS results show that the empirical method underestimates chlorophyll content in high latitudes, including the Southern Ocean region, when compared to PLS (see Figure 1). Cluster analysis of GWR coefficients also shows that the spatial stationarity assumption in empirical models is not likely a valid assumption.

MISTRA mechanism development: A new mechanism focused on marine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bräuer, Peter; Sommariva, Roberto; von Glasow, Roland

2015-04-01

The tropospheric multiphase chemistry of halogen compounds plays a key role in marine environments. Moreover, halogen compounds have an impact on the tropospheric oxidation capacity and climate. With more than two thirds of the Earth's surface covered with oceans, effects are of global importance. Various conditions are found in marine environments ranging from pristine regions to polluted regimes in the continental outflow. Furthermore, there are important sources for halogen compounds over land, such as volcanoes, salt lakes, or emissions from industrial processes. To assess the impact of halogen chemistry with numerical models under these distinct conditions, a multiphase mechanism has been developed in the last decades and applied successfully in numerous box and 1D model studies. Contributions from these model studies helped to identify important chemical cycles affecting the composition and chemistry of the troposphere. However, several discrepancies between model results and field measurements remain. Therefore, a major revision of the chemical mechanism has been performed including an update of the kinetic data and the addition of new reaction cycles. The extended mechansims have been evaluated in several model studies with the 1D model MISTRA. Current work focuses at the identification of the most important reaction cycles, which led to significant changes in the concentration-time profiles of several halogen species. Subsequently, the mechanism will be reduced to the most imporatant reactions, which are currently investigated. As regional and global model studies become more important to identify the importance of tropospheric halogen multiphase chemistry, the goal is to derive parameterisations for the most important halogen chemistry cycles, which can than be implemented in regional and global 3D models. In the reduction process, the extented MISTRA version will serve as a benchmark to assess the quality and accuracy of the reduced mechansim versions.

Global health governance as shared health governance.

PubMed

Ruger, Jennifer Prah

2012-07-01

With the exception of key 'proven successes' in global health, the current regime of global health governance can be understood as transnational and national actors pursuing their own interests under a rational actor model of international cooperation, which fails to provide sufficient justification for an obligation to assist in meeting the health needs of others. An ethical commitment to providing all with the ability to be healthy is required. This article develops select components of an alternative model of shared health governance (SHG), which aims to provide a 'road map,' 'focal points' and 'the glue' among various global health actors to better effectuate cooperation on universal ethical principles for an alternative global health equilibrium. Key features of SHG include public moral norms as shared authoritative standards; ethical commitments, shared goals and role allocation; shared sovereignty and constitutional commitments; legitimacy and accountability; country-level attention to international health relations. A framework of social agreement based on 'overlapping consensus' is contrasted against one based on self-interested political bargaining. A global health constitution delineating duties and obligations of global health actors and a global institute of health and medicine for holding actors responsible are proposed. Indicators for empirical assessment of select SHG principles are described. Global health actors, including states, must work together to correct and avert global health injustices through a framework of SHG based on shared ethical commitments.

The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution and Sustainable Harvest of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabout, João Carlos; Magalhães, Mara Rúbia; de Amorim Gomes, Marcos Aurélio; da Cunha, Hélida Ferreira

2016-04-01

The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.

Exploring the role of movement in determining the global distribution of marine biomass using a coupled hydrodynamic - Size-based ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, James R.; Stock, Charles A.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2015-11-01

Modeling the dynamics of marine populations at a global scale - from phytoplankton to fish - is necessary if we are to quantify how climate change and other broad-scale anthropogenic actions affect the supply of marine-based food. Here, we estimate the abundance and distribution of fish biomass using a simple size-based food web model coupled to simulations of global ocean physics and biogeochemistry. We focus on the spatial distribution of biomass, identifying highly productive regions - shelf seas, western boundary currents and major upwelling zones. In the absence of fishing, we estimate the total ocean fish biomass to be ∼ 2.84 ×109 tonnes, similar to previous estimates. However, this value is sensitive to the choice of parameters, and further, allowing fish to move had a profound impact on the spatial distribution of fish biomass and the structure of marine communities. In particular, when movement is implemented the viable range of large predators is greatly increased, and stunted biomass spectra characterizing large ocean regions in simulations without movement, are replaced with expanded spectra that include large predators. These results highlight the importance of considering movement in global-scale ecological models.

Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

1993-01-01

A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

2012-05-01

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Status and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, R.

2009-04-01

NARCCAP is an international program that is generating projections of climate change for the U.S., Canada, and northern Mexico at decision-relevant regional scales. NARCCAP uses multiple limited-area regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The use of multiple regional and global models allows us to investigate the uncertainty in model responses to future emissions (here, the A2 SRES scenario). The project also includes global time-slice experiments at the same discretization (50 km) using the GFDL atmospheric model (AM2.1) and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3). Phase I of the experiment uses the regional models nested within reanalysis in order to establish uncertainty attributable to the RCMs themselves. Phase II of the project then nests the RCMs within results from the current and future runs of the AOGCMs to explore the cascade of uncertainty from the global to the regional models. Phase I has been completed and the results to be shown include findings that spectral nudging is beneficial in some regions but not in others. Phase II is nearing completion and some preliminary results will be shown.

An Automatic Medium to High Fidelity Low-Thrust Global Trajectory Toolchain; EMTG-GMAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beeson, Ryne T.; Englander, Jacob A.; Hughes, Steven P.; Schadegg, Maximillian

2015-01-01

Solving the global optimization, low-thrust, multiple-flyby interplanetary trajectory problem with high-fidelity dynamical models requires an unreasonable amount of computational resources. A better approach, and one that is demonstrated in this paper, is a multi-step process whereby the solution of the aforementioned problem is solved at a lower-fidelity and this solution is used as an initial guess for a higher-fidelity solver. The framework presented in this work uses two tools developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center: the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG) and the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT). EMTG is a medium to medium-high fidelity low-thrust interplanetary global optimization solver, which now has the capability to automatically generate GMAT script files for seeding a high-fidelity solution using GMAT's local optimization capabilities. A discussion of the dynamical models as well as thruster and power modeling for both EMTG and GMAT are given in this paper. Current capabilities are demonstrated with examples that highlight the toolchains ability to efficiently solve the difficult low-thrust global optimization problem with little human intervention.

Modeling Study of the Geospace System Response to the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Enhancement on 17 March 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, D. S.; Zou, S.; Ridley, A. J.; Slavin, J. A.

2018-04-01

The global magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system is intrinsically coupled and susceptible to external drivers such as solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements. In order to understand the large-scale dynamic processes in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system due to the compression from the solar wind, the 17 March 2015 sudden commencement was studied in detail using global numerical models. This storm was one of the most geoeffective events of the solar cycle 24 with a minimum Dst of -222 nT. The Wind spacecraft recorded a 10-nPa increment in the solar wind dynamic pressure, while the interplanetary magnetic field BZ became further northward. The University of Michigan Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme global magnetohydrodynamic code was utilized to study the generation and propagation of perturbations associated with the compression of the magnetosphere system. In addition, the high-resolution electric potential and auroral power output from the magnetohydrodynamic model was used to drive the global ionosphere-thermosphere model to investigate the ionosphere-thermosphere system response to pressure enhancement. During the compression, the electric potentials and convection patterns in the polar ionosphere were significantly altered when the preliminary impulse and main impulse field-aligned currents moved from dayside to nightside. As a result of enhanced frictional heating, plasma and neutral temperatures increased at the locations where the flow speeds were enhanced, whereas the electron density dropped at these locations. In particular, the region between the preliminary impulse and main impulse field-aligned currents experienced the most significant heating with 1000-K ion temperature increase and 20-K neutral temperature increase within 2 min. Comparison of the simulation results with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar observations showed reasonable agreements despite underestimated magnitudes.

Mapping Global Potential Risk of Mango Sudden Decline Disease Caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata.

PubMed

Galdino, Tarcísio Visintin da Silva; Kumar, Sunil; Oliveira, Leonardo S S; Alfenas, Acelino C; Neven, Lisa G; Al-Sadi, Abdullah M; Picanço, Marcelo C

2016-01-01

The Mango Sudden Decline (MSD), also referred to as Mango Wilt, is an important disease of mango in Brazil, Oman and Pakistan. This fungus is mainly disseminated by the mango bark beetle, Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Stebbing), by infected plant material, and the infested soils where it is able to survive for long periods. The best way to avoid losses due to MSD is to prevent its establishment in mango production areas. Our objectives in this study were to: (1) predict the global potential distribution of MSD, (2) identify the mango growing areas that are under potential risk of MSD establishment, and (3) identify climatic factors associated with MSD distribution. Occurrence records were collected from Brazil, Oman and Pakistan where the disease is currently known to occur in mango. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model (MaxEnt) algorithm to assess the global potential distribution of MSD. The MaxEnt model predicted suitable areas in countries where the disease does not already occur in mango, but where mango is grown. Among these areas are the largest mango producers in the world including India, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico. The mean annual temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest month variables contributed most to the potential distribution of MSD disease. The mango bark beetle vector is known to occur beyond the locations where MSD currently exists and where the model predicted suitable areas, thus showing a high likelihood for disease establishment in areas predicted by our model. Our study is the first to map the potential risk of MSD establishment on a global scale. This information can be used in designing strategies to prevent introduction and establishment of MSD disease, and in preparation of efficient pest risk assessments and monitoring programs.

Mapping Global Potential Risk of Mango Sudden Decline Disease Caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Leonardo S. S.; Alfenas, Acelino C.; Neven, Lisa G.; Al-Sadi, Abdullah M.

2016-01-01

The Mango Sudden Decline (MSD), also referred to as Mango Wilt, is an important disease of mango in Brazil, Oman and Pakistan. This fungus is mainly disseminated by the mango bark beetle, Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Stebbing), by infected plant material, and the infested soils where it is able to survive for long periods. The best way to avoid losses due to MSD is to prevent its establishment in mango production areas. Our objectives in this study were to: (1) predict the global potential distribution of MSD, (2) identify the mango growing areas that are under potential risk of MSD establishment, and (3) identify climatic factors associated with MSD distribution. Occurrence records were collected from Brazil, Oman and Pakistan where the disease is currently known to occur in mango. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model (MaxEnt) algorithm to assess the global potential distribution of MSD. The MaxEnt model predicted suitable areas in countries where the disease does not already occur in mango, but where mango is grown. Among these areas are the largest mango producers in the world including India, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico. The mean annual temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest month variables contributed most to the potential distribution of MSD disease. The mango bark beetle vector is known to occur beyond the locations where MSD currently exists and where the model predicted suitable areas, thus showing a high likelihood for disease establishment in areas predicted by our model. Our study is the first to map the potential risk of MSD establishment on a global scale. This information can be used in designing strategies to prevent introduction and establishment of MSD disease, and in preparation of efficient pest risk assessments and monitoring programs. PMID:27415625

U. S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

2008). There are three major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning ...Smith, 2007. Resolution convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system...σ-z coordinates, and (3) a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL geodetic GPS modeling software GPSOMC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sovers, O. J.; Border, J. S.

1988-01-01

The physical models employed in GPSOMC and the modeling module of the GIPSY software system developed at JPL for analysis of geodetic Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements are described. Details of the various contributions to range and phase observables are given, as well as the partial derivatives of the observed quantities with respect to model parameters. A glossary of parameters is provided to enable persons doing data analysis to identify quantities in the current report with their counterparts in the computer programs. There are no basic model revisions, with the exceptions of an improved ocean loading model and some new options for handling clock parametrization. Such misprints as were discovered were corrected. Further revisions include modeling improvements and assurances that the model description is in accord with the current software.

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands. 1; Model Description and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walter, Bernadette P.; Heimann, Martin; Matthews, Elaine

2001-01-01

Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane­ hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.

Investigating model deficiencies in the global budget of ethane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzompa Sosa, Z. A.; Keller, C. A.; Turner, A. J.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.; Fischer, E. V.

2015-12-01

Many locations in the Northern Hemisphere show a statistically-significant sharp increase in measurements of ethane (C2H6) since 2009. It is hypothesized that the recent massive growth of shale gas exploitation in North America could be the source of this change. However, state-of-the-science chemical transport models are currently unable to reproduce the hemispheric burden of C2H6 or the recent sharp increase, pointing to a potential problem with current emission inventories. To resolve this, we used space-borne CH4 observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to derive C2H6 emissions. By using known emission ratios to CH4, we estimated emissions of C2H6 from oil and gas activities, biofuels, and biomass burning over North America. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to simulate atmospheric abundances of C2H6 with the new emissions estimates. The model is able to reproduce Northern Hemisphere surface concentrations. However, the model significantly under-predicts the amount of C2H6 throughout the column and the observed Northern Hemispheric gradient as diagnosed by comparisons to aircraft observations from the Hiaper Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) Campaign.

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater depth is explained by variation in saturated conductivity, and, for the sediment basins, also by variation in recharge. We validated simulated groundwater heads with piezometer heads (available from www.glowasis.eu), resulting in a coefficient of determination for sedimentary basins of 0.92 with regression constant of 0.8. This shows the used method is suitable to build a global groundwater model using best available global information, and estimated water table depths are within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; LEcuyer, Tristan; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Olson, Bill

2011-01-01

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Comparison of global and regional ionospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranner, H.-P.; Krauss, S.; Stangl, G.

2012-04-01

Modelling of the Earth's ionosphere means the description of the variability of the vertical TEC (Total Electron Content) in dependence of geographic latitude and longitude, height, diurnal and seasonal variation as well as solar activity. Within the project GIOMO (next Generation near real-time IOnospheric MOdels) the objectives are the identification and consolidation of improved ionospheric modelling technologies. The global models Klobuchar (GPS) and NeQuick (currently in use by EGNOS, in future used by Galileo) are compared to the IGS (International GNSS Service) Final GIM (Global Ionospheric Map). Additionally a RIM (Regional Ionospheric Map) for Europe provided by CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) is investigated. Furthermore the OLG (Observatorium Lustbühel Graz) regional models are calculated for two test beds with different latitudes and extensions (Western Austria and the Aegean region). There are three different approaches, two RIMs are based on spherical harmonics calculated either from code or phase measurements and one RIM is based on a Taylor series expansion around a central point estimated from zero-difference observations. The benefits of regional models are the local flexibility using a dense network of GNSS stations. Near real-time parameters are provided within ten minutes after every clock hour. All models have been compared according to their general behavior, the ability to react upon extreme solar events and the robustness of estimation. A ranking of the different models showed a preference for the RIMs while the global models should be used within a fall-back strategy.

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Christoph A.; Knowland, K. Emma; Nielsen, Jon E.; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Follette-Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua;

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2015-11-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1-6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations.

Computationally optimized ECoG stimulation with local safety constraints.

PubMed

Guler, Seyhmus; Dannhauer, Moritz; Roig-Solvas, Biel; Gkogkidis, Alexis; Macleod, Rob; Ball, Tonio; Ojemann, Jeffrey G; Brooks, Dana H

2018-06-01

Direct stimulation of the cortical surface is used clinically for cortical mapping and modulation of local activity. Future applications of cortical modulation and brain-computer interfaces may also use cortical stimulation methods. One common method to deliver current is through electrocorticography (ECoG) stimulation in which a dense array of electrodes are placed subdurally or epidurally to stimulate the cortex. However, proximity to cortical tissue limits the amount of current that can be delivered safely. It may be desirable to deliver higher current to a specific local region of interest (ROI) while limiting current to other local areas more stringently than is guaranteed by global safety limits. Two commonly used global safety constraints bound the total injected current and individual electrode currents. However, these two sets of constraints may not be sufficient to prevent high current density locally (hot-spots). In this work, we propose an efficient approach that prevents current density hot-spots in the entire brain while optimizing ECoG stimulus patterns for targeted stimulation. Specifically, we maximize the current along a particular desired directional field in the ROI while respecting three safety constraints: one on the total injected current, one on individual electrode currents, and the third on the local current density magnitude in the brain. This third set of constraints creates a computational barrier due to the huge number of constraints needed to bound the current density at every point in the entire brain. We overcome this barrier by adopting an efficient two-step approach. In the first step, the proposed method identifies the safe brain region, which cannot contain any hot-spots solely based on the global bounds on total injected current and individual electrode currents. In the second step, the proposed algorithm iteratively adjusts the stimulus pattern to arrive at a solution that exhibits no hot-spots in the remaining brain. We report on simulations on a realistic finite element (FE) head model with five anatomical ROIs and two desired directional fields. We also report on the effect of ROI depth and desired directional field on the focality of the stimulation. Finally, we provide an analysis of optimization runtime as a function of different safety and modeling parameters. Our results suggest that optimized stimulus patterns tend to differ from those used in clinical practice. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stavros, E. Natasha; Schimel, David; Pavlick, Ryan

Technologies on the International Space Station will provide ~1 year of synchronous observations of ecosystem composition, structure and function, in 2018. Here, we discuss these instruments and how they can be used to constrain global models and improve our understanding of the current state of terrestrial ecosystems.

Coupled Climate Model Simulations to Bracket the Impacts of Increasing Asian Aerosols Emissions and Aggressive Future Clean Air Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Zhang, Y.; Sun, S.; Olsen, S.; Dean, S.; Bleck, R.; Chylek, P.; Lohmann, U.

2007-12-01

We report ensemble simulations of the climatic impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols (sulfate, organic and black carbon), which bracket two policy scenarios: increased emissions over China and India by a factor of three over current levels and a global reduction of aerosols by a factor of ten, using the NCAR-CCSM3 and NASA- GISS coupled ocean atmosphere models. Tripling the anthropogenic aerosols over China and India has a small cooling effect (about -0.12°C) on the global mean surface air temperature with a slight reduction in global mean precipitation by ~ -0.8%. On the other hand, global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols by a factor of ten would warm the global surface temperatures by 0.4 °C - 0.8 °C in less than 10 years after the reduction takes place as well as an increase in global precipitation by 3.0% - 3.3%. Comparisons of NCAR and NASA model simulations also suggest that the indirect effects of aerosols are about 1-2 times the direct effects of aerosols. Tripling Asian anthropogenic aerosols results in regional cooling and a reduction in precipitation primarily in Asia, with cooling (warming) also noted over the high latitudes of Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Warming and increase in precipitation in the case of global reduction of aerosols are concentrated mainly over polluted land areas in both hemispheres. Tropical regions experience large changes in precipitation in both scenarios. We provide new insights into the climate model sensitivities of global mean temperatures and rainfall to aerosol forcing. Our results underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas accumulation rates as the world reduces air pollution to improve human health and that potential increased Asian pollution, offsets only a small fraction of the warming by greenhouse gases.

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Global Tree Range Shifts Under Forecasts from Two Alternative GCMs Using Two Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Kumar, J.; Potter, K. M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2013-12-01

Global shifts in the environmentally suitable ranges of 215 tree species were predicted under forecasts from two GCMs (the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the Hadley Model), each under two IPCC future climatic scenarios (A1 and B1), each at two future dates (2050 and 2100). The analysis considers all global land surface at a resolution of 4 km2. A statistical multivariate clustering procedure was used to quantitatively delineate 30 thousand environmentally homogeneous ecoregions across present and 8 potential future global locations at once, using global maps of 17 environmental characteristics describing temperature, precipitation, soils, topography and solar insolation. Presence of each tree species on Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) plots and in Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) samples was used to select a subset of suitable ecoregions from the full set of 30 thousand. Once identified, this suitable subset of ecoregions was compared to the known current range of the tree species under present conditions. Predicted present ranges correspond well with current understanding for all but a few of the 215 tree species. The subset of suitable ecoregions for each tree species can then be tracked into the future to determine whether the suitable home range for this species remains the same, moves, grows, shrinks, or disappears under each model/scenario combination. Occurrence and growth performance measurements for various tree species across the U.S. are limited to FIA plots. We present a new, general-purpose empirical imputation method which associates sparse measurements of dependent variables with particular multivariate clustered combinations of the independent variables, and then estimates values for unmeasured clusters, based on directional proximity in multidimensional data space, at both the cluster and map-cell levels of resolution. Using Associative Clustering, we scaled up the FIA point measurements into contonuous maps that show the expected growth and suitability for individual tree species across the continental US. Maps were generated for each tree species showing the Minimum Required Movement (MRM) straight-line distance from each currently suitable location to the geographically nearest "lifeboat" location having suitable conditions in the future. Locations that are the closest "lifeboats" for many MRM propagules originating from wide surrounding areas may constitute high-priority preservation targets as a refugium against climatic change.

Equilibrium drives of the low and high field side n = 2 plasma response and impact on global confinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paz-Soldan, C.; Logan, N. C.; Haskey, S. R.

The nature of the multi-modal n=2 plasma response and its impact on global confinement is studied as a function of the axisymmetric equilibrium pressure, edge safety factor, collisionality, and L-versus H-mode conditions. Varying the relative phase (ΔΦ UL) between upper and lower in-vessel coils demonstrates that different n=2 poloidal spectra preferentially excite different plasma responses. These different plasma response modes are preferentially detected on the tokamak high-field side (HFS) or low-field side (LFS) midplanes, have different radial extents, couple differently to the resonant surfaces, and have variable impacts on edge stability and global confinement. In all equilibrium conditions studied, themore » observed confinement degradation shares the same ΔΦ UL dependence as the coupling to the resonant surfaces given by both ideal (IPEC) and resistive (MARS-F) MHD computation. Varying the edge safety factor shifts the equilibrium field-line pitch and thus the ΔΦ UL dependence of both the global confinement and the n=2 magnetic response. As edge safety factor is varied, modeling finds that the HFS response (but not the LFS response), the resonant surface coupling, and the edge displacements near the X-point all share the same ΔΦ UL dependence. The LFS response magnitude is strongly sensitive to the core pressure and is insensitive to the collisionality and edge safety factor. This indicates that the LFS measurements are primarily sensitive to a pressure-driven kink-ballooning mode that couples to the core plasma. MHD modeling accurately reproduces these (and indeed all) LFS experimental trends and supports this interpretation. In contrast to the LFS, the HFS magnetic response and correlated global confinement impact is unchanged with plasma pressure, but is strongly reduced in high collisionality conditions in both H- and L-mode. This experimentally suggests the bootstrap current drives the HFS response through the kink-peeling mode drive, though surprisingly weak or no dependence on the bootstrap current is seen in modeling. Instead, modeling is revealed to be very sensitive to the details of the edge current profile and equilibrium truncation. Furthermore, holding truncation fixed, most HFS experimental trends are not captured, thus demonstrating a stark contrast between the robustness of the HFS experimental results and the sensitivity of its computation.« less

Equilibrium drives of the low and high field side n  =  2 plasma response and impact on global confinement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Soldan, C.; Logan, N. C.; Haskey, S. R.; Nazikian, R.; Strait, E. J.; Chen, X.; Ferraro, N. M.; King, J. D.; Lyons, B. C.; Park, J.-K.

2016-05-01

The nature of the multi-modal n  =  2 plasma response and its impact on global confinement is studied as a function of the axisymmetric equilibrium pressure, edge safety factor, collisionality, and L-versus H-mode conditions. Varying the relative phase (Δ {φ\\text{UL}} ) between upper and lower in-vessel coils demonstrates that different n  =  2 poloidal spectra preferentially excite different plasma responses. These different plasma response modes are preferentially detected on the tokamak high-field side (HFS) or low-field side (LFS) midplanes, have different radial extents, couple differently to the resonant surfaces, and have variable impacts on edge stability and global confinement. In all equilibrium conditions studied, the observed confinement degradation shares the same Δ {φ\\text{UL}} dependence as the coupling to the resonant surfaces given by both ideal (IPEC) and resistive (MARS-F) MHD computation. Varying the edge safety factor shifts the equilibrium field-line pitch and thus the Δ {φ\\text{UL}} dependence of both the global confinement and the n  =  2 magnetic response. As edge safety factor is varied, modeling finds that the HFS response (but not the LFS response), the resonant surface coupling, and the edge displacements near the X-point all share the same Δ {φ\\text{UL}} dependence. The LFS response magnitude is strongly sensitive to the core pressure and is insensitive to the collisionality and edge safety factor. This indicates that the LFS measurements are primarily sensitive to a pressure-driven kink-ballooning mode that couples to the core plasma. MHD modeling accurately reproduces these (and indeed all) LFS experimental trends and supports this interpretation. In contrast to the LFS, the HFS magnetic response and correlated global confinement impact is unchanged with plasma pressure, but is strongly reduced in high collisionality conditions in both H- and L-mode. This experimentally suggests the bootstrap current drives the HFS response through the kink-peeling mode drive, though surprisingly weak or no dependence on the bootstrap current is seen in modeling. Instead, modeling is revealed to be very sensitive to the details of the edge current profile and equilibrium truncation. Holding truncation fixed, most HFS experimental trends are not captured, thus demonstrating a stark contrast between the robustness of the HFS experimental results and the sensitivity of its computation.

Equilibrium drives of the low and high field side n = 2 plasma response and impact on global confinement

DOE PAGES

Paz-Soldan, C.; Logan, N. C.; Haskey, S. R.; ...

2016-03-31

The nature of the multi-modal n=2 plasma response and its impact on global confinement is studied as a function of the axisymmetric equilibrium pressure, edge safety factor, collisionality, and L-versus H-mode conditions. Varying the relative phase (ΔΦ UL) between upper and lower in-vessel coils demonstrates that different n=2 poloidal spectra preferentially excite different plasma responses. These different plasma response modes are preferentially detected on the tokamak high-field side (HFS) or low-field side (LFS) midplanes, have different radial extents, couple differently to the resonant surfaces, and have variable impacts on edge stability and global confinement. In all equilibrium conditions studied, themore » observed confinement degradation shares the same ΔΦ UL dependence as the coupling to the resonant surfaces given by both ideal (IPEC) and resistive (MARS-F) MHD computation. Varying the edge safety factor shifts the equilibrium field-line pitch and thus the ΔΦ UL dependence of both the global confinement and the n=2 magnetic response. As edge safety factor is varied, modeling finds that the HFS response (but not the LFS response), the resonant surface coupling, and the edge displacements near the X-point all share the same ΔΦ UL dependence. The LFS response magnitude is strongly sensitive to the core pressure and is insensitive to the collisionality and edge safety factor. This indicates that the LFS measurements are primarily sensitive to a pressure-driven kink-ballooning mode that couples to the core plasma. MHD modeling accurately reproduces these (and indeed all) LFS experimental trends and supports this interpretation. In contrast to the LFS, the HFS magnetic response and correlated global confinement impact is unchanged with plasma pressure, but is strongly reduced in high collisionality conditions in both H- and L-mode. This experimentally suggests the bootstrap current drives the HFS response through the kink-peeling mode drive, though surprisingly weak or no dependence on the bootstrap current is seen in modeling. Instead, modeling is revealed to be very sensitive to the details of the edge current profile and equilibrium truncation. Furthermore, holding truncation fixed, most HFS experimental trends are not captured, thus demonstrating a stark contrast between the robustness of the HFS experimental results and the sensitivity of its computation.« less

Localisation, Globalisation and SMEs in European Tourism: The "Virtual Enterprise" Model of Intervention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davenport, Elisabeth

2000-01-01

Discussion of the effect of globalization on SMEs (small and medium enterprises) in Europe focuses on a case study of a current European Commission (EC) project, Net Quality, which is based on the virtual enterprise as an intervention model that may encourage small businesses to cooperate in strategic ventures. (Contains 29 references.)…

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

2002-01-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth's biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios...

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

2018-02-01

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

Transverse oscillations and stability of prominences in a magnetic field dip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolotkov, D. Y.; Nisticò, G.; Nakariakov, V. M.

2016-05-01

Aims: We developed an analytical model of the global transverse oscillations and mechanical stability of a quiescent prominence in the magnetised environment with a magnetic field dip that accounts for the mirror current effect. Methods: The model is based on the interaction of line currents through the Lorentz force. Within this concept the prominence is treated as a straight current-carrying wire, and the magnetic dip is provided by two photospheric current sources. Results: Properties of both vertical and horizontal oscillations are determined by the value of the prominence current, its density and height above the photosphere, and the parameters of the magnetic dip. The prominence can be stable in both horizontal and vertical directions simultaneously when the prominence current dominates in the system and its height is less than the half-distance between the photospheric sources.

GRACE gravity model: assssment in terms of deep ocean currents from hydrography and from the ECCO ocean model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, V.; Stammer, D.; Fukumori, I.

2003-01-01

Here we assess the new generation of gravity models, derived from GRACE data. The differences between a global geoid model (one from GRACE data and one the well-known EGM-96), minus a Mean Sea Surface derived from over a decade of altimetric data are compared to hydrographic data from the Levitus compilation and to the ECCO numerical ocean model, which assimilates altimetry and other data.

On the limitations of General Circulation Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Peter H.; Risbey, James S.

1990-01-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large-scale processes from first principles. However, it is pointed out that the meridional transports of heat simulated GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. It is also demonstrated that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads to the question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change.

Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

PubMed

McMahon, Sean M; Harrison, Sandy P; Armbruster, W Scott; Bartlein, Patrick J; Beale, Colin M; Edwards, Mary E; Kattge, Jens; Midgley, Guy; Morin, Xavier; Prentice, I Colin

2011-05-01

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.; Adams, Peter J.; Mickley, Loretta J.

2008-01-01

Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

“Globalized public health.” A transdisciplinary comprehensive framework for analyzing contemporary globalization’s influences on the field of public health

PubMed Central

Lapaige, Véronique

2009-01-01

The current phase of globalization represents a “double-edged sword” challenge facing public health practitioners and health policy makers. The first “edge” throws light on two constructs in the field of public health: global health (formerly international health) and globalized public health. The second “edge” is that of global governance, and raises the question, “how can we construct public health regulations that adequately respond to both global and local complexities related to the two constructs mentioned earlier (global health and globalized public health)?” The two constructs call for the development of norms that will assure sustained population-wide health improvement and these two constructs have their own conceptual tools and theoretical models that permit a better understanding of them. In this paper, we introduce the “globalized public health” construct and we present an interactive comprehensive framework for critically analyzing contemporary globalization’s influences on the field of public health. “Globalized public health”, simultaneously a theoretical model and a conceptual framework, concerns the transformation of the field of public health in the sociohistorical context of globalization. The model is the fruit of an original theoretical research study conducted from 2005 to 2008 (“contextualized research,” Gibbons’ Mode II of knowledge production), founded on a QUAL-quant sequential mixed-method design. This research also reflects our political and ideological position, fuelled with aspirations of social democracy and cosmopolitical values. It is profoundly anchored in the pragmatic approach to globalization, looking to “reconcile” the market and equity. The model offers several features to users: (1) it is transdisciplinary; (2) it is interactive (CD-ROM); (3) it is nonlinear (nonlinear interrelations between the contextual globalization and the field of public health); (4) it is synchronic/diachronic (a double-crossed perspective permits analysis of global social change, the emergence of global agency and the transmutation of the field of public health, in the full complexity of their nonlinear interaction); (5) it offers five characteristics as an auto-eco-organized system of social interactions, or dynamic, nonlinear sociohistorical system. The model features a visual interface (five interrelated figures), a structure of 30 “integrator concepts” that integrates 114 other element-parts via 1,300 hypertext links. The model is both a knowledge translation tool and an interactive heuristic guide designed for practitioners and researchers in public health/community health/population health, as well as for decision-makers at all levels. PMID:22312210

Global distribution of carbon turnover times in terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T.; Reichstein, Markus

2015-04-01

The response of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability remains one of the largest uncertainties affecting future projections of climate change. This feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by the response of carbon uptake and by changes in the residence time of carbon in land ecosystems, which depend on climate, soil, and vegetation type. Thus, it is of foremost importance to quantify the turnover times of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and its spatial co-variability with climate. Here, we develop a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times (τ) to investigate its co-variation with climate at global scale. Assuming a balance between uptake (gross primary production, GPP) and emission fluxes, τ can be defined as the ratio between the total stock (C_total) and the output or input fluxes (GPP). The estimation of vegetation (C_veg) stocks relies on new remote sensing-based estimates from Saatchi et al (2011) and Thurner et al (2014), while soil carbon stocks (C_soil) are estimated based on state of the art global (Harmonized World Soil Database) and regional (Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database) datasets. The uptake flux estimates are based on global observation-based fields of GPP (Jung et al., 2011). Globally, we find an overall mean global carbon turnover time of 23-4+7 years (95% confidence interval). A strong spatial variability globally is also observed, from shorter residence times in equatorial regions to longer periods at latitudes north of 75°N (mean τ of 15 and 255 years, respectively). The observed latitudinal pattern reflect the clear dependencies on temperature, showing increases from the equator to the poles, which is consistent with our current understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. However, long turnover times are also observed in semi-arid and forest-herbaceous transition regions. Furthermore, based on a local correlation analysis, our results reveal a similarly strong association between τ and precipitation. A further analysis of carbon turnover times as simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate carbon-cycle models from the CMIP5 experiments reveals wide variations between models and a tendency to underestimate the global τ by 36%. The latitudinal patterns correlate significantly with the observation-based patterns. However, the models show stronger associations between τ and temperature than the observation-based estimates. In general, the stronger relationship between τ and precipitation is not reproduced and the modeled turnover times are significantly faster in many semi-arid regions. Ultimately, these results suggest a strong role of the hydrological cycle in the carbon cycle-climate interactions, which is not currently reproduced by Earth system models.

Impacts of the Minamata convention on mercury emissions and global deposition from coal-fired power generation in Asia.

PubMed

Giang, Amanda; Stokes, Leah C; Streets, David G; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Selin, Noelle E

2015-05-05

We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 μg·m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg·y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional singlecolumn models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from Merent geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloudscale model (termed a super-parameterization or multiscale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameteridon NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production nms will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Challenges for modeling global gene regulatory networks during development: insights from Drosophila.

PubMed

Wilczynski, Bartek; Furlong, Eileen E M

2010-04-15

Development is regulated by dynamic patterns of gene expression, which are orchestrated through the action of complex gene regulatory networks (GRNs). Substantial progress has been made in modeling transcriptional regulation in recent years, including qualitative "coarse-grain" models operating at the gene level to very "fine-grain" quantitative models operating at the biophysical "transcription factor-DNA level". Recent advances in genome-wide studies have revealed an enormous increase in the size and complexity or GRNs. Even relatively simple developmental processes can involve hundreds of regulatory molecules, with extensive interconnectivity and cooperative regulation. This leads to an explosion in the number of regulatory functions, effectively impeding Boolean-based qualitative modeling approaches. At the same time, the lack of information on the biophysical properties for the majority of transcription factors within a global network restricts quantitative approaches. In this review, we explore the current challenges in moving from modeling medium scale well-characterized networks to more poorly characterized global networks. We suggest to integrate coarse- and find-grain approaches to model gene regulatory networks in cis. We focus on two very well-studied examples from Drosophila, which likely represent typical developmental regulatory modules across metazoans. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

2013-12-01

The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and is supported, among others, by C.B. Early Career Research Program award.

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; ...

2016-01-11

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

PubMed Central

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

2016-01-01

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Global Monitoring of Water Supply and Sanitation: History, Methods and Future Challenges

PubMed Central

Bartram, Jamie; Brocklehurst, Clarissa; Fisher, Michael B.; Luyendijk, Rolf; Hossain, Rifat; Wardlaw, Tessa; Gordon, Bruce

2014-01-01

International monitoring of drinking water and sanitation shapes awareness of countries’ needs and informs policy, implementation and research efforts to extend and improve services. The Millennium Development Goals established global targets for drinking water and sanitation access; progress towards these targets, facilitated by international monitoring, has contributed to reducing the global disease burden and increasing quality of life. The experiences of the MDG period generated important lessons about the strengths and limitations of current approaches to defining and monitoring access to drinking water and sanitation. The methods by which the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) of WHO and UNICEF tracks access and progress are based on analysis of data from household surveys and linear regression modelling of these results over time. These methods provide nationally-representative and internationally-comparable insights into the drinking water and sanitation facilities used by populations worldwide, but also have substantial limitations: current methods do not address water quality, equity of access, or extra-household services. Improved statistical methods are needed to better model temporal trends. This article describes and critically reviews JMP methods in detail for the first time. It also explores the impact of, and future directions for, international monitoring of drinking water and sanitation. PMID:25116635

Widespread inhibition of day-time ecosystem respiration and implications for eddy-covariance flux partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keenan, T. F.

2017-12-01

Global terrestrial ecosystems absorb about a third of anthropogenic emissions each year, due to the difference between two key processes: photosynthesis and respiration. Despite the importance of these two processes at the global scale, no direct measurement exists of either. Eddy-covariance (EC) measurements have been widely used as the closest `quasi-direct' observation, and the resulting estimates have been used to produce global budgets of photosynthesis and respiration. Recent research, however, suggests that current estimates may be biased by up to 25%, as the methods used to partition observed net carbon fluxes to photosynthesis and respiration do not take into account any inhibition of leaf respiration in light. Yet the prevalence of light-inhibition of leaf respiration remains debated, and impacts on global estimates of photosynthesis and respiration unquantified. Here, we use novel approaches to estimate the extent of light-inhibition across the global FLUXNET EC network, and find strong evidence for an inhibition effect on ecosystem respiration, which varies by season and plant functional type. We develop partitioning methods that allow for inhibition, and find that that diurnal patterns of ecosystem respiration might be markedly different than previously thought. The results call for the reevaluation of global terrestrial carbon cycle models, and also suggest that current global budgets of photosynthesis and respiration may be biased on the order of magnitude of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

PubMed

Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J

2012-07-01

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global surgery: A view from the south.

PubMed

Roy, Nobhojit

2017-02-01

This article is based on the Hugh Greenwood Lecture delivered at the 2016 Congress of the British Association of Paediatric Surgeons. It presents the view of the global surgery movement from the bottom of the surgical food chain and proposes what HICs (high-income countries) can do for global surgery in a coordinated fashion. From the LMIC (low- and middle-income countries) surgeon perspective, global surgery is transitioning from the charity-based surgery model to codevelopment with multiple stakeholders. The caveats and current opportunities are described using two case studies. Surgeons may not play a pivotal role in the solutions. The future of the surgical workforce, innovation, workarounds, unmet burden of disease, and health metrics are discussed and multidisciplinary solutions proposed for the entire chain of surgical healthcare delivery in LMIC. A new breed of "essential surgeons", technology solutions for intellectual and physical isolation, competency-based credentialing, industry-driven innovation, task sharing over task shifting, prioritizing delivery based on surgical burden, and a rota-based overseas model of help are proposed as solutions for the issues facing global surgery. Level V. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic to highlight how their research and activities reinforce conceptual links among global change topics. Pre- and post-workshop assessment results and responses to questionnaires have guided the refinement of classroom activities and assessment tools utilizing flowcharts as models for global change processes.

A database and tool for boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling: description and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, B. H.; Akhtar, F.; Pye, H. O. T.; Napelenok, S. L.; Hutzell, W. T.

2013-09-01

Transported air pollutants receive increasing attention as regulations tighten and global concentrations increase. The need to represent international transport in regional air quality assessments requires improved representation of boundary concentrations. Currently available observations are too sparse vertically to provide boundary information, particularly for ozone precursors, but global simulations can be used to generate spatially and temporally varying Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBC). This study presents a public database of global simulations designed and evaluated for use as LBC for air quality models (AQMs). The database covers the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the years 2000-2010 and contains hourly varying concentrations of ozone, aerosols, and their precursors. The database is complimented by a tool for configuring the global results as inputs to regional scale models (e.g., Community Multiscale Air Quality or Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions). This study also presents an example application based on the CONUS domain, which is evaluated against satellite retrieved ozone vertical profiles. The results show performance is largely within uncertainty estimates for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with some exceptions. The major difference shows a high bias in the upper troposphere along the southern boundary in January. This publication documents the global simulation database, the tool for conversion to LBC, and the fidelity of concentrations on the boundaries. This documentation is intended to support applications that require representation of long-range transport of air pollutants.

Continental scale data assimilation of discharge and its effect on flow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; van Dijk, Albert

2017-04-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist (Emmerton et al., 2016). Current global flood forecasting system heavily rely on forecast forcing (precipitation, temperature, reference potential evaporation) to derive initial state estimates of the hydrological model for the next forecast (e.g. by glueing the first day of subsequent forecast as proxy for the historical observed forcing). It is clear that this approach is not perfect and that data assimilation can help to overcome some of the weaknesses of this approach. So far most hydrologic da studies have focused mostly on catchment scale. Here we conduct a da experiment by assimilating multiple streamflow observations across the contiguous united states (CONUS) and Europe into a global hydrological model (W3RA) and run with and without localization method using OpenDA in the global flood forecasting information system (GLOFFIS). It is shown that assimilation of streamflow holds considerable potential for improving global scale flood forecasting (improving NSE scores from 0 to 0.7 and beyond). Weakness in the model (e.g. structural problems and missing processes) and forcing that influence the performance will be highlighted.

Continental scale data assimilation of discharge and its effect on flow predictions across the contiguous US (CONUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, A.; Schellekens, J.; van Dijk, A.; Molenaar, R.

2016-12-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist (Emmerton et al., 2016). Current global flood forecasting system heavily rely on forecast forcing (precipitation, temperature, reference potential evaporation) to derive initial state estimates of the hydrological model for the next forecast (e.g. by glueing the first day of subsequent forecast as proxy for the historical observed forcing). It is clear that this approach is not perfect and that data assimilation can help to overcome some of the weaknesses of this approach. So far most hydrologic da studies have focused mostly on catchment scale. Here we conduct a da experiment by assimilating multiple streamflow observations across the contiguous united states (CONUS) into a global hydrological model (W3RA) and run with and without localization method using OpenDA in the global flood forecasting information system (GLOFFIS). It is shown that assimilation of streamflow holds considerable potential for improving global scale flood forecasting (improving NSE scores from 0 to 0.7 and beyond). Weakness in the model (e.g. structural problems and missing processes) and forcing that influence the performance will be highlighted.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

PubMed

van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

2017-07-01

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ring Current Pressure Estimation withRAM-SCB using Data Assimilation and VanAllen Probe Flux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godinez, H. C.; Yu, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Larsen, B.; Jordanova, V.

2015-12-01

Capturing and subsequently modeling the influence of tail plasma injections on the inner magnetosphere is particularly important for understanding the formation and evolution of Earth's ring current. In this study, the ring current distribution is estimated with the Ring Current-Atmosphere Interactions Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) using, for the first time, data assimilation techniques and particle flux data from the Van Allen Probes. The state of the ring current within the RAM-SCB is corrected via an ensemble based data assimilation technique by using proton flux from one of the Van Allen Probes, to capture the enhancement of ring current following an isolated substorm event on July 18 2013. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of the ring current particle distributions in the RAM-SCB model, leading to better agreement with observations. This newly implemented data assimilation technique in the global modeling of the ring current thus provides a promising tool to better characterize the effect of substorm injections in the near-Earth regions. The work is part of the Space Hazards Induced near Earth by Large, Dynamic Storms (SHIELDS) project in Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Comparison of Global Martian Plasma Models in the Context of MAVEN Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egan, Hilary; Ma, Yingjuan; Dong, Chuanfei; Modolo, Ronan; Jarvinen, Riku; Bougher, Stephen; Halekas, Jasper; Brain, David; Mcfadden, James; Connerney, John; Mitchell, David; Jakosky, Bruce

2018-05-01

Global models of the interaction of the solar wind with the Martian upper atmosphere have proved to be valuable tools for investigating both the escape to space of the Martian atmosphere and the physical processes controlling this complex interaction. The many models currently in use employ different physical assumptions, but it can be difficult to directly compare the effectiveness of the models since they are rarely run for the same input conditions. Here we present the results of a model comparison activity, where five global models (single-fluid MHD, multifluid MHD, multifluid electron pressure MHD, and two hybrid models) were run for identical conditions corresponding to a single orbit of observations from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft. We find that low-altitude ion densities are very similar across all models and are comparable to MAVEN ion density measurements from periapsis. Plasma boundaries appear generally symmetric in all models and vary only slightly in extent. Despite these similarities there are clear morphological differences in ion behavior in other regions such as the tail and southern hemisphere. These differences are observable in ion escape loss maps and are necessary to understand in order to accurately use models in aiding our understanding of the Martian plasma environment.

Improving the representation of Arctic photosynthesis in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Sloan, V. L.; Norby, R. J.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2014-12-01

The primary goal of Earth System Models (ESMs) is to improve understanding and projection of future global change. In order to do this models must accurately represent the terrestrial carbon cycle. Although Arctic carbon fluxes are small relative to global carbon fluxes, uncertainty is large. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is well described by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis and most ESMs use a derivation of the FvCB model to calculate gross primary productivity. Two key parameters required by the FvCB model are an estimate of the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco (Vc,max) and the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax). In ESMs the parameter Vc,max is typically fixed for a given plant functional type (PFT). Only four ESMs currently have an explicit Arctic PFT and the data used to derive Vc,max in these models relies on small data sets and unjustified assumptions. We examined the derivation of Vc,max and Jmax in current Arctic PFTs and estimated Vc,max and Jmax for a range of Arctic PFTs growing on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, AK. We found that the values of Vc,max currently used to represent Arctic plants in ESMs are 70% lower than the values we measured, and contemporary temperature response functions for Vc,max also appear to underestimate Vc,max at low temperature. ESMs typically use a single multiplier (JVratio) to convert Vc,max to Jmax, however we found that the JVratio of Arctic plants is higher than current estimates suggesting that Arctic PFTs will be more responsive to rising carbon dioxide than currently projected. In addition we are exploring remotely sensed methods to scale up key biochemical (e.g. leaf N, leaf mass area) and physiological (e.g. Vc,max and Jmax) properties that drive model representation of photosynthesis in the Arctic. Our data suggest that the Arctic tundra has a much greater capacity for CO2 uptake, particularly at low temperature, and will be more CO2 responsive than is currently represented in ESMs. As we build robust relationships between physiology and spectral signatures we hope to provide spatially and temporally resolved trait maps of key model parameters that can be ingested by new model frameworks, or used to validate emergent model properties.

A global flash flood forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-04-01

The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial resolution appropriate to the NWP system. We then demonstrate how these warning areas could eventually complement existing global systems such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to give warnings of flash floods. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating a global flash flood forecasting system based on forecasts from existing global NWP systems. Future developments, in post-processing for example, will need to address an under-prediction bias, for extreme point rainfall, that is innate to current-generation global models.

Nonaxisymmetric modelling in BOUT++; toward global edge fluid turbulence in stellarators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, Brendan; Hill, Peter; Dudson, Ben

2016-10-01

As Wendelstein 7-X has been optimized for neoclassical transport, turbulent transport could potentially become comparable to neoclassical losses. Furthermore, the imminent installation of an island divertor merits global edge modelling to determine heat flux profiles and the efficacy of the system. Currently, however, nonaxisymmetric edge plasma modelling is limited to either steady state (non-turbulent) transport modelling, or computationally expensive gyrokinetics. The implementation of the Flux Coordinate Independent (FCI) approach to parallel derivatives has allowed the extension of the BOUT++ edge fluid turbulence framework to nonaxisymmetric geometries. Here we first investigate the implementation of the FCI method in BOUT++ by modelling diffusion equations in nonaxisymmetric geometries with and without boundary interaction, and quantify the inherent error. We then present the results of non-turbulent transport modelling and compare with analytical theory. The ongoing extension of BOUT++ to nonaxisymmetric configurations, and the prospects of stellarator edge fluid turbulence simulations will be discussed.

The Effect of Improved Sub-Daily Earth Rotation Models on Global GPS Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Choi, K. K.

2017-12-01

Throughout the various International GNSS Service (IGS) products, strong periodic signals have been observed around the 14 day period. This signal is clearly visible in all IGS time-series such as those related to orbit ephemerides, Earth rotation parameters (ERP) and ground station coordinates. Recent studies show that errors in the sub-daily Earth rotation models are the main factors that induce such noise. Current IGS orbit processing standards adopted the IERS 2010 convention and its sub-daily Earth rotation model. Since the IERS convention had published, recent advances in the VLBI analysis have made contributions to update the sub-daily Earth rotation models. We have compared several proposed sub-daily Earth rotation models and show the effect of using those models on orbit ephemeris, Earth rotation parameters and ground station coordinates generated by the NGS global GPS data processing strategy.

Strategies for the coupling of global and local crystal growth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derby, Jeffrey J.; Lun, Lisa; Yeckel, Andrew

2007-05-01

The modular coupling of existing numerical codes to model crystal growth processes will provide for maximum effectiveness, capability, and flexibility. However, significant challenges are posed to make these coupled models mathematically self-consistent and algorithmically robust. This paper presents sample results from a coupling of the CrysVUn code, used here to compute furnace-scale heat transfer, and Cats2D, used to calculate melt fluid dynamics and phase-change phenomena, to form a global model for a Bridgman crystal growth system. However, the strategy used to implement the CrysVUn-Cats2D coupling is unreliable and inefficient. The implementation of under-relaxation within a block Gauss-Seidel iteration is shown to be ineffective for improving the coupling performance in a model one-dimensional problem representative of a melt crystal growth model. Ideas to overcome current convergence limitations using approximations to a full Newton iteration method are discussed.

Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geiger, Cathleen A.

1997-01-01

Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the more important features to monitor in terms of heat, mass, and momentum transfer between the air and sea and furthermore, the impact of such responses to global climate.

A Database and Tool for Boundary Conditions for Regional Air Quality Modeling: Description and Evaluation

EPA Science Inventory

Transported air pollutants receive increasing attention as regulations tighten and global concentrations increase. The need to represent international transport in regional air quality assessments requires improved representation of boundary concentrations. Currently available ob...

Computer simulations of space-borne meteorological systems on the CYBER 205

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halem, M.

1984-01-01

Because of the extreme expense involved in developing and flight testing meteorological instruments, an extensive series of numerical modeling experiments to simulate the performance of meteorological observing systems were performed on CYBER 205. The studies compare the relative importance of different global measurements of individual and composite systems of the meteorological variables needed to determine the state of the atmosphere. The assessments are made in terms of the systems ability to improve 12 hour global forecasts. Each experiment involves the daily assimilation of simulated data that is obtained from a data set called nature. This data is obtained from two sources: first, a long two-month general circulation integration with the GLAS 4th Order Forecast Model and second, global analysis prepared by the National Meteorological Center, NOAA, from the current observing systems twice daily.

The Global Carbon Cycle: It's a Small World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ineson, Philip; Milcu, Alexander; Subke, Jens-Arne; Wildman, Dennis; Anderson, Robert; Manning, Peter; Heinemeyer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Predicting future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), together with the impacts of these changes on global climate, are some of the most urgent and important challenges facing mankind. Modelling is the only way in which such predictions can be made, leading to the current generation of increasingly complex computer simulations, with associated concerns about embedded assumptions and conflicting model outputs. Alongside analysis of past climates, the GCMs currently represent our only hope of establishing the importance of potential runaway positive feedbacks linking climate change and atmospheric greenhouse gases yet the incorporation of necessary biospheric responses into GCMs markedly increases the uncertainty of predictions. Analysis of the importance of the major components of the global carbon (C) cycle reveals that an understanding of the conditions under which the terrestrial biosphere could switch from an overall carbon (C) sink to a source is critical to our ability to make future climate predictions. Here we present an alternative approach to assessing the short term biotic (plant and soil) sensitivities to elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 through the use of a purely physical analogue. Centred on the concept of materially-closed systems containing scaled-down ratios of the global C stocks for the atmosphere, vegetation and soil we show that, in these model systems, the terrestrial biosphere is able to buffer a rise of 3oC even when coupled to very strong CO2-temperature positive feedbacks. The system respiratory response appears to be extremely well linked to temperature and is critical in deciding atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Simulated anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the model systems showed an initial corresponding increase in atmospheric CO2 but, somewhat surprisingly, CO2 concentrations levelled off at ca. 480 p.p.m.v., despite continuing additions of CO2. Experiments were performed in which reversion of atmospheric temperatures, or cessation of CO2 additions, showed rapid and proportionate decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The results indicate that short term terrestrial feedbacks are not sufficient to induce a CO2-temperature runaway scenario and suggest that predictions of atmospheric CO2 by current GCMs may under-estimate the CO2 fertilisation effect on plants and, hence, over-estimate future atmospheric CO2 increases. Perhaps, more importantly, the experiments show that the impacts of imposed elevated CO2 and temperature increase can be reversed. Whilst clearly representing a simplified version of terrestrial CO2 dynamics, it is proposed that closed system research represents a new form of test-bed for validation of processes represented within digital global CO2 models.

Field-aligned currents and ion convection at high altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burch, J. L.; Reiff, P. H.

1985-01-01

Hot plasma observations from Dynamics Explorer 1 have been used to investigate solar-wind ion injection, Birkeland currents, and plasma convection at altitudes above 2 earth-radii in the morning sector. The results of the study, along with the antiparallel merging hypothesis, have been used to construct a By-dependent global convection model. A significant element of the model is the coexistence of three types of convection cells (merging cells, viscous cells, and lobe cells). As the IMF direction varies, the model accounts for the changing roles of viscous and merging processes and makes testable predictions about several magnetospheric phenomena, including the newly-observed theta aurora in the polar cap.

A global scale mechanistic model of photosynthetic capacity (LUNA V1.0)

DOE PAGES

Ali, Ashehad A.; Xu, Chonggang; Rogers, Alistair; ...

2016-02-12

Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., V c,max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., J max25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary considerably in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated with plant functional types. In this study, we have developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA) to predict photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions. We adopt an optimality hypothesis to nitrogen allocation among lightmore » capture, electron transport, carboxylation and respiration. The LUNA model is able to reasonably capture the measured spatial and temporal patterns of photosynthetic capacity as it explains ~55 % of the global variation in observed values of V c,max25 and ~65 % of the variation in the observed values of J max25. Model simulations with LUNA under current and future climate conditions demonstrate that modeled values of V c,max25 are most affected in high-latitude regions under future climates. In conclusion, ESMs that relate the values of V c,max25 or J max25 to plant functional types only are likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.« less

Simulation of leaf area index on site scale based on model data fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Wang, J. B.

2017-12-01

The world's grassland area is about 24 × 108hm2, accounting for about one-fifth of the global land area. It is one of the most widely distributed terrestrial ecosystems on Earth. And currently, it is the most affected area of human activity. A considerable portion of the global CO2 emissions are fixed by grassland, and the grassland carbon cycle plays an important role in the global carbon cycle (Li Bo, Yongshen Peng, Li Yao, China's Prairie, 1990). In recent years, the carbon cycle and its influencing factors of grassland ecosystems have become one of the hotspots in ecology, geology, botany and agronomy under the background of global change ( Mu Shaojie, 2014) . And the model is now as a popular and effective method of research. However, there are still some uncertainties in this approach. CEVSA ( Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere) is a biogeochemical cycle model based on physiological and ecological processes to simulate plant-soil-atmosphere system energy exchange and water-carbon-nitrogen coupling cycles (Cao at al., 1998a; 1998b; Woodward et al., 1995). In this paper, the remote sensing observation data of leaf area index are integrated into the model, and the CEVSA model of site version is optimized by Markov chain-Monte Carlo method to achieve the purpose of increasing the accuracy of model results.

Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: a comparison study of a super-high-resolution global model with CMIP3.

PubMed

Jin, Fengjun; Kitoh, Akio; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-11-28

Water cycle components over the Mediterranean for both a current run (1979-2007) and a future run (2075-2099) are studied with the Japan Meteorological Agency's 20 km grid global climate model. Results are compared with another study using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble model (hereafter, the Mariotti model). Our results are surprisingly close to Mariotti's. The projected mean annual change rates of precipitation (P) between the future and the current run for sea and land are -11 per cent and -10 per cent, respectively, which are not as high as Mariotti's. Projected changes for evaporation (E) are +9.3 per cent and -3.6 per cent, compared with +7.2 per cent and -8.1 per cent in Mariotti's study, respectively. However, no significant difference in the change in P-E over the sea body was found between these two studies. The increased E over the eastern Mediterranean was found to be higher than that in the western Mediterranean, but the P decrease was lower. The net moisture budget, P-E, shows that the eastern Mediterranean will become even drier than the western Mediterranean. The river model suggests decreasing water inflow to the Mediterranean of approximately 36 per cent (excluding the Nile).

Improved large-scale hydrological modelling through the assimilation of streamflow and downscaled satellite soil moisture observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López López, Patricia; Wanders, Niko; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Renzullo, Luigi; Sterk, Geert; Schellekens, Jaap; Bierkens, Marc

2015-04-01

The coarse spatial resolution of global hydrological models (typically > 0.25o) often limits their ability to resolve key water balance processes for many river basins and thus compromises their suitability for water resources management, especially when compared to locally-tunes river models. A possible solution to the problem may be to drive the coarse resolution models with high-resolution meteorological data as well as to assimilate ground-based and remotely-sensed observations of key water cycle variables. While this would improve the modelling resolution of the global model, the impact of prediction accuracy remains largely an open question. In this study we investigated the impact that assimilating streamflow and satellite soil moisture observations have on global hydrological model estimation, driven by coarse- and high-resolution meteorological observations, for the Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia. The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological model is forced with downscaled global climatological data (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) obtained from the WATCH Forcing Data (WFDEI) and local high resolution gauging station based gridded datasets (0.05o), sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Downscaled satellite derived soil moisture (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) from AMSR-E and streamflow observations collected from 25 gauging stations are assimilated using an ensemble Kalman filter. Several scenarios are analysed to explore the added value of data assimilation considering both local and global climatological data. Results show that the assimilation of streamflow observations result in the largest improvement of the model estimates. The joint assimilation of both streamflow and downscaled soil moisture observations leads to further improved in streamflow simulations (10% reduction in RMSE), mainly in the headwater catchments (up to 10,000 km2). Results also show that the added contribution of data assimilation, for both soil moisture and streamflow, is more pronounced when the global meteorological data are used to force the models. This is caused by the higher uncertainty and coarser resolution of the global forcing. This study demonstrates that it is possible to improve hydrological simulations forced by coarse resolution meteorological data with downscaled satellite soil moisture and streamflow observations and bring them closer to a hydrological model forced with local climatological data. These findings are important in light of the efforts that are currently done to go to global hyper-resolution modelling and can significantly help to advance this research.

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.

2015-12-01

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). The CVP Program currently supports multiple projects in areas that are aimed at improved representation of physical processes in global models. Some of the topics that are currently funded include: i) Improved Understanding of Intraseasonal Tropical Variability - DYNAMO field campaign and post -field projects, and the new climate model improvement teams focused on MJO processes; ii) Climate Process Teams (CPTs, co-funded with NSF) with projects focused on Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to aerosol indirect effects, and Internal-Wave Driven Mixing in Global Ocean Models; iii) Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology; iv) Understanding Arctic Sea Ice Mechanism and Predictability;v) AMOC Mechanisms and Decadal Predictability Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized. Additional information can be found at http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP.

Influence of upstream solar wind on thermospheric flows at Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, J. N.; Achilleos, N.; Guio, P.

2012-02-01

The coupling of Jupiter's magnetosphere and ionosphere plays a vital role in creating its auroral emissions. The strength of these emissions is dependent on the difference in speed of the rotational flows within Jupiter's high-latitude thermosphere and the planet's magnetodisc. Using an azimuthally symmetric global circulation model, we have simulated how upstream solar wind conditions affect the energy and direction of atmospheric flows. In order to simulate the effect of a varying dynamic pressure in the upstream solar wind, we calculated three magnetic field profiles representing compressed, averaged and expanded ‘middle’ magnetospheres. These profiles were then used to solve for the angular velocity of plasma in the magnetosphere. This angular velocity determines the strength of currents flowing between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. We examine the influence of variability in this current system upon the global winds and energy inputs within the Jovian thermosphere. We find that the power dissipated by Joule heating and ion drag increases by ∼190% and ∼185% from our compressed to expanded model respectively. We investigated the effect of exterior boundary conditions on our models and found that by reducing the radial current at the outer edge of the magnetodisc, we also limit the thermosphere's ability to transmit angular momentum to this region.

'Isn't it ironic?' Beliefs about the unacceptability of emotions and emotional suppression relate to worse outcomes in fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Bowers, Hannah; Wroe, Abigail L; Pincus, Tamar

2017-05-01

Beliefs about the unacceptability of experiencing and expressing emotions have been found to be related to worse outcomes in people with persistent physical symptoms. The current study tested mediation models regarding emotional suppression, beliefs about emotions, support-seeking and global impact in fibromyalgia. One hundred eighty-two participants took part in an online questionnaire testing potential mechanisms of this relationship using mediation analysis. The model tested emotional suppression and affective distress as serial mediators of the relationship between beliefs about emotions and global impact. In parallel paths, two forms of support-seeking were tested (personal/emotional and symptom-related support-seeking) as mediators. Emotional suppression and affective distress significantly serially mediated the relationship between beliefs about emotions and global impact. Neither support-seeking variable significantly mediated this relationship. Results indicate a potential mechanism through which beliefs about emotions and global impact might relate which might provide a theoretical basis for future research on treatments for fibromyalgia.

The two-way relationship between ionospheric outflow and the ring current

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Welling, Daniel T.; Jordanova, Vania Koleva; Glocer, Alex

It is now well established that the ionosphere, because it acts as a significant source of plasma, plays a critical role in ring current dynamics. However, because the ring current deposits energy into the ionosphere, the inverse may also be true: the ring current can play a critical role in the dynamics of ionospheric outflow. This study uses a set of coupled, first-principles-based numerical models to test the dependence of ionospheric outflow on ring current-driven region 2 field-aligned currents (FACs). A moderate magnetospheric storm event is modeled with the Space Weather Modeling Framework using a global MHD code (Block Adaptivemore » Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US), a polar wind model (Polar Wind Outflow Model), and a bounce-averaged kinetic ring current model (ring current atmosphere interaction model with self-consistent magnetic field, RAM-SCB). Initially, each code is two-way coupled to all others except for RAM-SCB, which receives inputs from the other models but is not allowed to feed back pressure into the MHD model. The simulation is repeated with pressure coupling activated, which drives strong pressure gradients and region 2 FACs in BATS-R-US. It is found that the region 2 FACs increase heavy ion outflow by up to 6 times over the non-coupled results. The additional outflow further energizes the ring current, establishing an ionosphere-magnetosphere mass feedback loop. This study further demonstrates that ionospheric outflow is not merely a plasma source for the magnetosphere but an integral part in the nonlinear ionosphere-magnetosphere-ring current system.« less

The two-way relationship between ionospheric outflow and the ring current

DOE PAGES

Welling, Daniel T.; Jordanova, Vania Koleva; Glocer, Alex; ...

2015-06-01

It is now well established that the ionosphere, because it acts as a significant source of plasma, plays a critical role in ring current dynamics. However, because the ring current deposits energy into the ionosphere, the inverse may also be true: the ring current can play a critical role in the dynamics of ionospheric outflow. This study uses a set of coupled, first-principles-based numerical models to test the dependence of ionospheric outflow on ring current-driven region 2 field-aligned currents (FACs). A moderate magnetospheric storm event is modeled with the Space Weather Modeling Framework using a global MHD code (Block Adaptivemore » Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US), a polar wind model (Polar Wind Outflow Model), and a bounce-averaged kinetic ring current model (ring current atmosphere interaction model with self-consistent magnetic field, RAM-SCB). Initially, each code is two-way coupled to all others except for RAM-SCB, which receives inputs from the other models but is not allowed to feed back pressure into the MHD model. The simulation is repeated with pressure coupling activated, which drives strong pressure gradients and region 2 FACs in BATS-R-US. It is found that the region 2 FACs increase heavy ion outflow by up to 6 times over the non-coupled results. The additional outflow further energizes the ring current, establishing an ionosphere-magnetosphere mass feedback loop. This study further demonstrates that ionospheric outflow is not merely a plasma source for the magnetosphere but an integral part in the nonlinear ionosphere-magnetosphere-ring current system.« less

The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands.

PubMed

Campbell, J Elliott; Lobell, David B; Genova, Robert C; Field, Christopher B

2008-08-01

Converting forest lands into bioenergy agriculture could accelerate climate change by emitting carbon stored in forests, while converting food agriculture lands into bioenergy agriculture could threaten food security. Both problems are potentially avoided by using abandoned agriculture lands for bioenergy agriculture. Here we show the global potential for bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands to be less than 8% of current primary energy demand, based on historical land use data, satellite-derived land cover data, and global ecosystem modeling. The estimated global area of abandoned agriculture is 385-472 million hectares, or 66-110% of the areas reported in previous preliminary assessments. The area-weighted mean production of above-ground biomass is 4.3 tons ha(-1) y(-1), in contrast to estimates of up to 10 tons ha(-1) y(-1) in previous assessments. The energy content of potential biomass grown on 100% of abandoned agriculture lands is less than 10% of primary energy demand for most nations in North America, Europe, and Asia, but it represents many times the energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current energy demand is low.

A revised global ozone dry deposition estimate based on a new two-layer parameterisation for air-sea exchange and the multi-year MACC composition reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhar, Ashok K.; Woodhouse, Matthew T.; Galbally, Ian E.

2018-03-01

Dry deposition at the Earth's surface is an important sink of atmospheric ozone. Currently, dry deposition of ozone to the ocean surface in atmospheric chemistry models has the largest uncertainty compared to deposition to other surface types, with implications for global tropospheric ozone budget and associated radiative forcing. Most global models assume that the dominant term of surface resistance in the parameterisation of ozone dry deposition velocity at the oceanic surface is constant. There have been recent mechanistic parameterisations for air-sea exchange that account for the simultaneous waterside processes of ozone solubility, molecular diffusion, turbulent transfer, and first-order chemical reaction of ozone with dissolved iodide and other compounds, but there are questions about their performance and consistency. We present a new two-layer parameterisation scheme for the oceanic surface resistance by making the following realistic assumptions: (a) the thickness of the top water layer is of the order of a reaction-diffusion length scale (a few micrometres) within which ozone loss is dominated by chemical reaction and the influence of waterside turbulent transfer is negligible; (b) in the water layer below, both chemical reaction and waterside turbulent transfer act together and are accounted for; and (c) chemical reactivity is present through the depth of the oceanic mixing layer. The new parameterisation has been evaluated against dry deposition velocities from recent open-ocean measurements. It is found that the inclusion of only the aqueous iodide-ozone reaction satisfactorily describes the measurements. In order to better quantify the global dry deposition loss and its interannual variability, modelled 3-hourly ozone deposition velocities are combined with the 3-hourly MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis ozone for the years 2003-2012. The resulting ozone dry deposition is found to be 98.4 ± 30.0 Tg O3 yr-1 for the ocean and 722.8 ± 87.3 Tg O3 yr-1 globally. The new estimate of the ocean component is approximately a third of the current model estimates. This reduction corresponds to an approximately 20 % decrease in the total global ozone dry deposition, which (with all other components being unchanged) is equivalent to an increase of approximately 5 % in the modelled tropospheric ozone burden and a similar increase in tropospheric ozone lifetime.

Global deformation of the Earth, surface mass anomalies, and the geodetic infrastructure required to study these processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Rietbroek, R.; Gunter, B.; Mark-Willem, J.

2008-12-01

Global deformation of the Earth can be linked to loading caused by mass changes in the atmosphere, the ocean and the terrestrial hydrosphere. World-wide geodetic observation systems like GPS, e.g., the global IGS network, can be used to study the global deformation of the Earth directly and, when other effects are properly modeled, provide information regarding the surface loading mass (e.g., to derive geo-center motion estimates). Vice versa, other observing systems that monitor mass change, either through gravitational changes (GRACE) or through a combination of in-situ and modeled quantities (e.g., the atmosphere, ocean or hydrosphere), can provide indirect information on global deformation. In the framework of the German 'Mass transport and mass distribution' program, we estimate surface mass anomalies at spherical harmonic resolution up to degree and order 30 by linking three complementary data sets in a least squares approach. Our estimates include geo-center motion and the thickness of a spatially uniform layer on top of the ocean surface (that is otherwise estimated from surface fluxes, evaporation and precipitation, and river run-off) as a time-series. As with all current Earth observing systems, each dataset has its own limitations and do not realize homogeneous coverage over the globe. To assess the impact that these limitations might have on current and future deformation and loading mass solutions, a sensitivity study was conducted. Simulated real-case and idealized solutions were explored in which the spatial distribution and quality of GPS, GRACE and OBP data sets were varied. The results show that significant improvements, e.g., over the current GRACE monthly gravity fields, in particular at the low degrees, can be achieved when these solutions are combined with present day GPS and OBP products. Our idealized scenarios also provide quantitative implications on how much surface mass change estimates may improve in the future when improved observing systems become available.