Global Warming, Africa and National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-15

African populations. This includes awareness from a global perspective in line with The Army Strategy for the Environment, the UN’s Intergovernmental...2 attention. At the time, computer models did not indicate a significant issue with global warming suggesting only a modest increase of 2°C9...projected climate changes. Current Science The science surrounding climate change and global warming was, until recently, a point of

Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

ScienceCinema

Majumdar, Arun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering and Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

2018-05-04

Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

Global public health leadership for the twenty-first century: towards improved health of all populations.

PubMed

Fried, Linda P; Piot, Peter; Frenk, Julio J; Flahault, Antoine; Parker, Richard

2012-01-01

We are at an unprecedented moment in history in terms of the health of populations around the world. New and old problems all require both short- and long-term solutions, at the individual, community, national and global levels. Unique solutions for each challenge may not be feasible or adequately effective or cost-effective. We are confronted by health systems that are not well matched to current and future needs, both for sustained prevention and chronic care. Moving forward effectively as a field will benefit from a focus on the changing needs of global health, and on how changing conditions, globally, should define the next generation of public health leadership so as to best accomplish global health goals.

[Globalization and infectious diseases in Mexico's indigenous population].

PubMed

Castro, Roberto; Erviti, Joaquina; Leyva, René

2007-01-01

This paper discusses the health status of indigenous populations in Mexico. The first section characterizes the concept of globalization and its links to the population's health. Based on available statistical data, the second section documents the current indigenous populations' health status in the country. The article then argues that the presupposition of equity, crucial to globalization theory, does not apply to this case. Using the Mexican National Health Survey (2000), the third section further analyzes the health status of indigenous populations and identifies important inconsistencies in the data. The discussion section contends that these inconsistencies derive from the fact that such health surveys fail to contemplate the cultural specificities of indigenous peoples, thus leading to erroneous interpretations of the data. The article concludes that statistics on indigenous peoples' health must be interpreted with extreme caution and always with the support of social science theories and research methods.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread.

Urban and global populism: An analysis of Jakarta as Resilient City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sustikarini, A.; Kabinawa, L. N. R. W.

2018-03-01

One of the important elements of friendly city is its cordiality towards diversity. Cities will naturally attract people from different nationalities to live, study and work. The rapid development of cities has long been regarded as major drive of urbanization from other areas which contributed to the high level of ethnic and race diversities. However diversity is currently seen under threat due to the rise of global populism that is mainly fuelled by anxiety over economic condition. The growth of nationalist movement, anti-immigrant parties and xenophobia is gaining foothold across the planet. Against this backdrop, this paper aims at investigating the nexus between diversity and inequality in Jakarta. The current local election provides example of these two competing concepts. Jakarta as emerging global city with diverse communities had been marred by public protest and narration of identity issues. On the other hands, populism has deep root in severe economic inequality among the residents. A robust development in Jakarta has been marked by concentration of wealth in the hands of few. This paper presents case study on the root causes of growing populism and its relations with inequality in Jakarta.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

Rapid Population Growth-Cause or Result of Global Problems?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Richard H.

Explosive population growth is a symptom of the world's unjust and inequitable social, political, and economic conditions. The current rate of growth is staggering, particularly in the cities of the underdeveloped countries. While some progress has been made in slowing population growth, several factors still contribute to its momentum. One of…

Resources, Environment, and Population: The Nature of Future Limits. Population Bulletin, Vol. 34, No. 3, August 1979.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ridker, Ronald G.; Cecelski, Elizabeth W.

To determine the current status and possible trends in the balance between global population growth and natural resources, the bulletin examines demands presented by population and economic growth at various periods throughout history. Periods examined are the recent past, the present to the year 2025, and the long term. Factors focused upon…

The basic principles of migration health: Population mobility and gaps in disease prevalence

PubMed Central

Gushulak, Brian D; MacPherson, Douglas W

2006-01-01

Currently, migrants and other mobile individuals, such as migrant workers and asylum seekers, are an expanding global population of growing social, demographic and political importance. Disparities often exist between a migrant population's place of origin and its destination, particularly with relation to health determinants. The effects of those disparities can be observed at both individual and population levels. Migration across health and disease disparities influences the epidemiology of certain diseases globally and in nations receiving migrants. While specific disease-based outcomes may vary between migrant group and location, general epidemiological principles may be applied to any situation where numbers of individuals move between differences in disease prevalence. Traditionally, migration health activities have been designed for national application and lack an integrated international perspective. Present and future health challenges related to migration may be more effectively addressed through collaborative global undertakings. This paper reviews the epidemiological relationships resulting from health disparities bridged by migration and describes the growing role of migration and population mobility in global disease epidemiology. The implications for national and international health policy and program planning are presented. PMID:16674820

Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.

PubMed

Henry, R C; Engström, K; Olin, S; Alexander, P; Arneth, A; Rounsevell, M D A

2018-01-01

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary

PubMed Central

Olin, S.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.

2018-01-01

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies. PMID:29566091

Mucosal immunity to poliovirus.

PubMed

Ogra, Pearay L; Okayasu, Hiromasa; Czerkinsky, Cecil; Sutter, Roland W

2011-10-01

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) currently based on use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) has identified suboptimal immunogenicity of this vaccine as a major impediment to eradication, with a failure to induce protection against paralytic poliomyelitis in certain population segments in some parts of the world. The Mucosal Immunity and Poliovirus Vaccines: Impact on Wild Poliovirus Infection, Transmission and Vaccine Failure conference was organized to obtain a better understanding of the current status of global control of poliomyelitis and identify approaches to improve the immune responsiveness and effectiveness of the orally administered poliovirus vaccines in order to accelerate the global eradication of paralytic poliomyelitis.

Global Shifts in Cardiovascular Disease, the Epidemiologic Transition, and Other Contributing Factors: Toward a New Practice of Global Health Cardiology.

PubMed

Mendoza, Walter; Miranda, J Jaime

2017-02-01

One of the major drivers of change in the practice of cardiology is population change. This article discusses the current debate about epidemiologic transition paired with other ongoing transitions with direct relevance to cardiovascular conditions. Challenges specific to patterns of risk factors over time; readiness for disease surveillance and meeting global targets; health system, prevention, and treatment efforts; and physiologic traits and human-environment interactions are identified. This article concludes that a focus on the most populated regions of the world will contribute substantially to protecting the large gains in global survival and life expectancy accrued over the last decades. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Current issues and actions in radiation protection of patients.

PubMed

Holmberg, Ola; Malone, Jim; Rehani, Madan; McLean, Donald; Czarwinski, Renate

2010-10-01

Medical application of ionizing radiation is a massive and increasing activity globally. While the use of ionizing radiation in medicine brings tremendous benefits to the global population, the associated risks due to stochastic and deterministic effects make it necessary to protect patients from potential harm. Current issues in radiation protection of patients include not only the rapidly increasing collective dose to the global population from medical exposure, but also that a substantial percentage of diagnostic imaging examinations are unnecessary, and the cumulative dose to individuals from medical exposure is growing. In addition to this, continued reports on deterministic injuries from safety related events in the medical use of ionizing radiation are raising awareness on the necessity for accident prevention measures. The International Atomic Energy Agency is engaged in several activities to reverse the negative trends of these current issues, including improvement of the justification process, the tracking of radiation history of individual patients, shared learning of safety significant events, and the use of comprehensive quality audits in the clinical environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of fish in a globally changing food system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Abigail J.; MacMillan, J. Randy

2017-01-01

Though humans have been fishing for food since they first created tools to hunt, modern food systems are predominately terrestrial focused and fish are frequently overlooked. Yet, within the global food system, fish play an important role in meeting current and future food needs. Capture fisheries are the last large-scale “wild” food, and aquaculture is the fastest growing food production sector in the world. Currently, capture fisheries and aquaculture provide 4.3 billion people with at least 15% of their animal protein. In addition to providing protein and calories, fish are important sources of critical vitamins and vital nutrients that are difficult to acquire through other food sources. As the climate changes, human populations will continue to grow, cultural tastes will evolve, and fish populations will respond. Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture are poised to fill demand for food not met by terrestrial food systems. Climate change and other global changes will increase, decrease, or modify many wild fish populations and aquaculture systems. Understanding the knowledge gaps around these implications for global change on fish production is critical. Applied research and adaptive management techniques can assist with the necessary evolution of sustainable food systems to include a stronger emphasis on fish and other aquatic organisms.

Wheat straw yield, nutrient uptake and soil chemical changes in two coastal plains ultisols amended with uncharred and pyrolyzed sorghum residues

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current concerns about rising global population growth combined with global food security necessitate major optimization in agricultural management. The fertility of highly weathered Ultisols in the southeastern Coastal Plains region of United States is considerably low. In this region, intensive cr...

Public release of the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storchak, Dmitry A.; Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondára, István; Engdahl, E. Robert; Harris, James; Lee, William H.K.; Villaseñor, Antonio; Bormann, Peter

2013-01-01

The International Seismological Centre–Global Earthquake Model (ISC–GEM) Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900–2009) is the result of a special effort to substantially extend and improve currently existing global catalogs to serve the requirements of specific user groups who assess and model seismic hazard and risk. The data from the ISC–GEM Catalogue would be used worldwide yet will prove absolutely essential in those regions where a high seismicity level strongly correlates with a high population density.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

PubMed Central

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread. PMID:28948096

Holocene = Anthropocene? The HYDE database for integrated global change research over the past 12,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein Goldewijk, K.

2008-12-01

More and more studies of global (climate) change are focusing on the past. Hundreds and thousands of years of land use, driven by population growth have left their trace/mark on the Earth's surface. We are only at the beginning to understand the complex relationship of human induced disturbances of the global environment, and the consequences for future climate. It is therefore essential that we get a clear picture/understanding of past relationships between population growth, land use and climate. In order to facilitate climate modelers to examine these relationships, the HYDE database has been updated and extended. The update of HYDE described here (Klein Goldewijk et al. 2006; Klein Goldewijk et al. 2007) includes several improvements compared to its predecessor: (i) the HYDE 2 version used a Boolean approach with a 30 minute degree resolution, while HYDE 3 uses fractional land use on a 5 minute resolution; (ii) more and better sub-national (population) data (Klein Goldewijk, 2005) to improve the historical (urban and rural) population maps as a basis for allocation of land cover; (iii) implementation of different allocation algorithms with time-dependent weighting maps for cropland and grassland; (iv) the period covered has now been extended from the emergence of agriculture (10,000 B.C) to present time (2,000 A.D.), with different time intervals. Examples of (future) use of the database is to help test the 'Ruddiman hypothesis', who proposed a theory that mankind already altered the global atmosphere much earlier than the start of the Industrial Revolution in the early 18th century (Ruddiman, 2003), which put forward the research question whether we detect a pre- Industrial Revolution anthropogenic signal, and how strong is that signal? References Klein Goldewijk, K. A.F. Bouwman and G. van Drecht, 2007. Mapping current global cropland and grassland distributions on a 5 by 5 minute resolution, Journal of Land Use Science, Vol 2(3): 167-190. Klein Goldewijk, K. and G. van Drecht, 2006. HYDE 3: Current and historical population and land cover. MNP (2006) (Edited by A.F. Bouwman, T. Kram and K. Klein Goldewijk), Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands Klein Goldewijk, K. 2005. Three centuries of global population growth: A spatial referenced population density database for 1700 - 2000, Population and Environment, 26 (5): 343-367. Ruddiman, WF, 2003. The anthropogenic greenhouse era bagan thousands of years ago, Climatic Change, 61(3), 261-293.

The status of adolescent medicine: building a global adolescent workforce.

PubMed

Lee, Lana; Upadhya, Krishna K; Matson, Pamela A; Adger, Hoover; Trent, Maria E

2016-08-01

Remarkable public health achievements to reduce infant and child mortality as well as improve the health and well-being of children worldwide have successfully resulted in increased survival and a growing population of young people aged 10-24 years. Population trends indicate that the current generation of 1.8 billion young people is the largest in history. However, there is a scarcity of dedicated resources available to effectively meet the health needs of adolescents and young adults worldwide. Growing recognition of the pivotal roles young people play in the cultures, societies, and countries in which they live has spurred an expanding global movement to address the needs of this special population. Building an effective global workforce of highly-skilled adolescent health professionals who understand the unique biological, psychological, behavioral, social, and environmental factors that affect the health of adolescents is a critical step in addressing the health needs of the growing cohort of young people. In this review, we aim to: 1) define a global assessment of the health needs for adolescents around the world; 2) describe examples of current training programs and requirements in adolescent medicine; 3) identify existing gaps and barriers to develop an effective adolescent health workforce; and 4) develop a call for targeted actions to build capacity of the adolescent health workforce, broaden culturally relevant research and evidence-based intervention strategies, and reinforce existing interdisciplinary global networks of youth advocates and adolescent health professionals to maximize the opportunities for training, research, and care delivery.

The status of adolescent medicine: Building a global adolescent workforce

PubMed Central

Lee, Lana; Upadhya, Krishna K; Matson, Pamela; Adger, Hoover; Trent, Maria E

2016-01-01

Remarkable public health achievements to reduce infant and child mortality and improve the health and well-being of children worldwide have successfully resulted in increased survival and a growing population of young people aged 10–24 years. Population trends indicate that the current generation of 1.8 billion young people is the largest in history, but there is a scarcity of dedicated resources available to effectively meet the health needs of adolescents and young adults worldwide. Growing recognition of the pivotal roles young people play in the cultures, societies, and countries in which they live has spurred an expanding global movement to address the needs of this special population. Building an effective global workforce of highly-skilled adolescent health professionals who understand the unique biological, psychological, behavioral, social, and environmental factors that impact the health of adolescents is a critical step in addressing the health needs of the growing cohort of young people. In this review, we aim to: 1) Define a global assessment of the health needs for adolescents around the world; 2) Describe examples of current training programs and requirements in Adolescent Medicine; 3) Identify existing gaps and barriers to develop an effective adolescent health workforce; and 4) Develop a call for targeted actions to build capacity of the adolescent health workforce, broaden culturally relevant research and evidence-based intervention strategies, and reinforce existing interdisciplinary global networks of youth advocates and adolescent health professionals to maximize the opportunities for training, research, and care delivery. PMID:26167974

High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

PubMed Central

Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Goetze, Erica

2013-01-01

Abstract Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. PMID:24567838

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

PubMed

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections in global indigenous populations: data availability and gaps.

PubMed

Minichiello, Victor; Rahman, Saifur; Hussain, Rafat

2013-10-01

Socioeconomic and health disadvantage is widespread within and across indigenous communities in the world, leading to differentials in morbidity and mortality between indigenous and non-indigenous populations. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV/AIDS, among indigenous populations are an emerging public health concern. The focus of this paper is on examining the STI epidemiology in indigenous communities in various parts of the world utilizing a range of data sources. Most of the STI research on global indigenous communities has concentrated on developed countries, neglecting more than half the world's indigenous people in the developing countries. This has resulted in major gaps in data at global level for STIs and HIV/AIDS among indigenous populations. Available data show that the prevalence of STIs is increasing among the indigenous communities and in several instances, the rates of these infections are higher than among non-indigenous populations. However, HIV still remains low when compared with the rates of other STIs. The paper argues that there is an urgent need to collect more comprehensive and reliable data at the global level across various indigenous communities. There is also an opportunity to reverse current trends in STIs through innovative, evidence-based and culturally appropriate targeted sexual health programmes.

Assessing Progress in Reducing the At-Risk Population after 13 Years of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

PubMed Central

Hooper, Pamela J.; Chu, Brian K.; Mikhailov, Alexei; Ottesen, Eric A.; Bradley, Mark

2014-01-01

Background In 1997, the World Health Assembly adopted Resolution 50.29, committing to the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, subsequently targeted for 2020. The initial estimates were that 1.2 billion people were at-risk for LF infection globally. Now, 13 years after the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) began implementing mass drug administration (MDA) against LF in 2000—during which over 4.4 billion treatments have been distributed in 56 endemic countries—it is most appropriate to estimate the impact that the MDA has had on reducing the population at risk of LF. Methodology/Principal Findings To assess GPELF progress in reducing the population at-risk for LF, we developed a model based on defining reductions in risk of infection among cohorts of treated populations following each round of MDA. The model estimates that the number of people currently at risk of infection decreased by 46% to 789 million through 2012. Conclusions/Significance Important progress has been made in the global efforts to eliminate LF, but significant scale-up is required over the next 8 years to reach the 2020 elimination goal. PMID:25411843

Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Vimal; Mukherjee, Sourav; Kumar, Rohini; Stone, Dáithí A.

2017-12-01

Heatwaves with large impacts have increased in the recent past and will continue to increase under future warming. However, the implication for population exposure to severe heatwaves remains unexplored. Here, we characterize maximum potential human exposure (without passive/active reduction measures) to severe heatwaves in India. We show that if the global mean temperature is limited to 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions, the frequency of severe heatwaves will rise by 30 times the current climate by the end-21st century. In contrast, the frequency is projected to be about 2.5 times more (than the low-warming scenario of 2 °C) under conditions expected if the RCP8.5 ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario is followed. Under the 2.0 °C low-warming target, population exposure to severe heatwaves is projected to increase by about 15 and 92 times the current level by the mid and end-21st century respectively. Strategies to reduce population growth in India during the 21st century may provide only limited mitigation of heatwave exposure mostly late in the century. Limiting global temperatures to 1.5 °C above preindustrial would reduce the exposure by half relative to RCP8.5 by the mid-21st century. If global temperatures are to exceed 1.5 °C then substantial measures will be required to offset the large increase in exposure to severe heatwaves in India.

International security linked to population and environment.

PubMed

1999-01-01

40 representatives from the mass media and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), as well as experts in the field, attended a meeting of the Council on Population Education (CPE) on November 20, 1998, to discuss global issues and population concerns. Hiroyuki Ishi, a University of Tokyo professor, argued that the current global population of 6 billion people is placing increasing pressure upon the environment and that the outlook for the natural resources of forests, water, energy, and food was not good. As population sizes increase, competition also increases for water, arable land, and resources, and therefore the capacity of the environment to support the population decreases, leading to social unrest. 101 small wars have been waged between 1989 and 1996, indirectly due to population pressures. A 1969 conflict between Honduras and El Salvador, and the conflicts between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda, Zaire, and Tanzania are noted as examples. Rome Club projections made in 1972 have not been realized and new environmental crises will be caused by the growing lack of renewable resources caused by war.

Doctors Without Borders.

PubMed

Wass, Val; Southgate, Lesley

2017-04-01

The unprecedented demands of patient and population priorities created by globalization and escalating health and social inequities will not be met unless medical education changes. Educators have failed to move fast enough to create an education framework that meets current population needs. A new common set of professional values around global social accountability is necessary. Education borders must be broken down at three levels-societal-institutional, interpersonal, and individual.At a societal-institutional level, global health must be embraced as part of a philosophy of population needs, human rights, equity, and justice. A move from informative acquisition of knowledge and skills to formative learning where students socialize around values, develop leadership attributes, and become agents for change is needed. At an interpersonal level, radical changes in curriculum delivery, which move away from the well-defined borders of specialty rotations, are required. Students must develop an integrated understanding of the future of health care and the patient's journey through health care delivery, within the context of population needs. At an individual level, doctors need to understand the boundaries of the professional values they hold within themselves and develop a deeper understanding of their own internal prejudices and conflicts. Opening the borders between the sciences and humanities is essential. Fostering and mentoring that emphasize that resilience, leadership, flexibility, and the ability to cope with uncertainty are needed to tackle the complexities of current, as well as future, health care. Doctors need to understand the restraints within themselves to work effectively without borders.

Current-induced transition from particle-by-particle to concurrent intercalation in phase-separating battery electrodes.

PubMed

Li, Yiyang; El Gabaly, Farid; Ferguson, Todd R; Smith, Raymond B; Bartelt, Norman C; Sugar, Joshua D; Fenton, Kyle R; Cogswell, Daniel A; Kilcoyne, A L David; Tyliszczak, Tolek; Bazant, Martin Z; Chueh, William C

2014-12-01

Many battery electrodes contain ensembles of nanoparticles that phase-separate on (de)intercalation. In such electrodes, the fraction of actively intercalating particles directly impacts cycle life: a vanishing population concentrates the current in a small number of particles, leading to current hotspots. Reports of the active particle population in the phase-separating electrode lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4; LFP) vary widely, ranging from near 0% (particle-by-particle) to 100% (concurrent intercalation). Using synchrotron-based X-ray microscopy, we probed the individual state-of-charge for over 3,000 LFP particles. We observed that the active population depends strongly on the cycling current, exhibiting particle-by-particle-like behaviour at low rates and increasingly concurrent behaviour at high rates, consistent with our phase-field porous electrode simulations. Contrary to intuition, the current density, or current per active internal surface area, is nearly invariant with the global electrode cycling rate. Rather, the electrode accommodates higher current by increasing the active particle population. This behaviour results from thermodynamic transformation barriers in LFP, and such a phenomenon probably extends to other phase-separating battery materials. We propose that modifying the transformation barrier and exchange current density can increase the active population and thus the current homogeneity. This could introduce new paradigms to enhance the cycle life of phase-separating battery electrodes.

Towards a global human embryonic stem cell bank.

PubMed

Lott, Jason P; Savulescu, Julian

2007-08-01

An increasingly unbridgeable gap exists between the supply and demand of transplantable organs. Human embryonic stem cell technology could solve the organ shortage problem by restoring diseased or damaged tissue across a range of common conditions. However, such technology faces several largely ignored immunological challenges in delivering cell lines to large populations. We address some of these challenges and argue in favor of encouraging contribution or intentional creation of embryos from which widely immunocompatible stem cell lines could be derived. Further, we argue that current immunological constraints in tissue transplantation demand the creation of a global stem cell bank, which may hold particular promise for minority populations and other sub-groups currently marginalized from organ procurement and allocation systems. Finally, we conclude by offering a number of practical and ethically oriented recommendations for constructing a human embryonic stem cell bank that we hope will help solve the ongoing organ shortage problem.

A global perspective: training opportunities in Adolescent Medicine for healthcare professionals.

PubMed

Golub, Sarah A; Arunakul, Jiraporn; Hassan, Areej

2016-08-01

The review briefly describes the current state of adolescent health globally, and highlights current educational and training opportunities in Adolescent Medicine for healthcare providers worldwide. Despite a growing body of literature demonstrating a shift toward recognizing Adolescent Medicine as a subspecialty, there are very few countries that offer nationally recognized Adolescent Medicine training programs. In recent years, several countries have begun to offer educational programming, such as noncredentialed short training programs, conferences, and online courses. Challenges, including cultural barriers, financing, and lack of governmental recognition and support, have hindered progress in the development of accredited training programs globally. It is crucial to support efforts for sustainable training programs, especially within low and middle-income countries where a majority of the world's adolescent population lives. Sharing knowledge of existing curriculums, programs, and systems will increase opportunities globally to build regional capacity, increase access to interdisciplinary services, and to implement health-promoting policies for youth worldwide.

The Effects of Chinese Dietary Trends on Global and Local Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, J.

2015-12-01

Global land scarcity is a major concern, which, due to climate change, lifestyle changes, and population growth, will only continue to worsen. It is a major driver of global environmental degradation, famine, and sociopolitical conflicts. With some 33% of the world's dwindling supply of arable land dedicated to grossly inefficient animal husbandry or animal feed production, it is easy to see that dietary consumption patterns play an important role. Although population growth in East Asia has stagnated, changing dietary trends mean that China is now the world's largest consumers of meat, consuming 25% of global meat production, despite having less than half of the American per capita equivalent. This paper assesses changing dietary consumption patterns of Taiwan, whose current per capita meat consumption surpasses all other East Asian countries, over the past 30 years and considers the relationship this has had on overall land consumption. We then consider dietary trends of Mainland China, which shares a common cultural heritage and whose current Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is similar to Taiwanese PPP levels in 1985. Finally we retrospectively project three alternative Taiwanese consumption patterns over the past 30 years, consider the effect of each scenario on per capita land consumption, and finally consider these results in terms of culturally analogues Mainland China.

The global distribution of Banana bunchy top virus reveals little evidence for frequent recent, human-mediated long distance dispersal events

PubMed Central

Stainton, Daisy; Martin, Darren P.; Muhire, Brejnev M.; Lolohea, Samiuela; Halafihi, Mana’ia; Lepoint, Pascale; Blomme, Guy; Crew, Kathleen S.; Sharman, Murray; Kraberger, Simona; Dayaram, Anisha; Walters, Matthew; Collings, David A.; Mabvakure, Batsirai; Lemey, Philippe; Harkins, Gordon W.; Thomas, John E.; Varsani, Arvind

2015-01-01

Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV; family Nanoviridae, genus Babuvirus) is a multi-component single-stranded DNA virus, which infects banana plants in many regions of the world, often resulting in large-scale crop losses. We analyzed 171 banana leaf samples from fourteen countries and recovered, cloned, and sequenced 855 complete BBTV components including ninety-four full genomes. Importantly, full genomes were determined from eight countries, where previously no full genomes were available (Samoa, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the USA [HI]). Accounting for recombination and genome component reassortment, we examined the geographic structuring of global BBTV populations to reveal that BBTV likely originated in Southeast Asia, that the current global hotspots of BBTV diversity are Southeast Asia/Far East and India, and that BBTV populations circulating elsewhere in the world have all potentially originated from infrequent introductions. Most importantly, we find that rather than the current global BBTV distribution being due to increases in human-mediated movements of bananas over the past few decades, it is more consistent with a pattern of infrequent introductions of the virus to different parts of the world over the past 1,000 years. PMID:27774281

The global distribution of Banana bunchy top virus reveals little evidence for frequent recent, human-mediated long distance dispersal events.

PubMed

Stainton, Daisy; Martin, Darren P; Muhire, Brejnev M; Lolohea, Samiuela; Halafihi, Mana'ia; Lepoint, Pascale; Blomme, Guy; Crew, Kathleen S; Sharman, Murray; Kraberger, Simona; Dayaram, Anisha; Walters, Matthew; Collings, David A; Mabvakure, Batsirai; Lemey, Philippe; Harkins, Gordon W; Thomas, John E; Varsani, Arvind

2015-01-01

Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV; family Nanoviridae, genus Babuvirus ) is a multi-component single-stranded DNA virus, which infects banana plants in many regions of the world, often resulting in large-scale crop losses. We analyzed 171 banana leaf samples from fourteen countries and recovered, cloned, and sequenced 855 complete BBTV components including ninety-four full genomes. Importantly, full genomes were determined from eight countries, where previously no full genomes were available (Samoa, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the USA [HI]). Accounting for recombination and genome component reassortment, we examined the geographic structuring of global BBTV populations to reveal that BBTV likely originated in Southeast Asia, that the current global hotspots of BBTV diversity are Southeast Asia/Far East and India, and that BBTV populations circulating elsewhere in the world have all potentially originated from infrequent introductions. Most importantly, we find that rather than the current global BBTV distribution being due to increases in human-mediated movements of bananas over the past few decades, it is more consistent with a pattern of infrequent introductions of the virus to different parts of the world over the past 1,000 years.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

A Grouping Particle Swarm Optimizer with Personal-Best-Position Guidance for Large Scale Optimization.

PubMed

Guo, Weian; Si, Chengyong; Xue, Yu; Mao, Yanfen; Wang, Lei; Wu, Qidi

2017-05-04

Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a popular algorithm which is widely investigated and well implemented in many areas. However, the canonical PSO does not perform well in population diversity maintenance so that usually leads to a premature convergence or local optima. To address this issue, we propose a variant of PSO named Grouping PSO with Personal- Best-Position (Pbest) Guidance (GPSO-PG) which maintains the population diversity by preserving the diversity of exemplars. On one hand, we adopt uniform random allocation strategy to assign particles into different groups and in each group the losers will learn from the winner. On the other hand, we employ personal historical best position of each particle in social learning rather than the current global best particle. In this way, the exemplars diversity increases and the effect from the global best particle is eliminated. We test the proposed algorithm to the benchmarks in CEC 2008 and CEC 2010, which concern the large scale optimization problems (LSOPs). By comparing several current peer algorithms, GPSO-PG exhibits a competitive performance to maintain population diversity and obtains a satisfactory performance to the problems.

Defining a global research agenda for breast cancer

PubMed Central

Love, Richard R.

2008-01-01

In contrast to western high income nations, the incidence and mortality from breast cancer are increasing in most low and middle income countries worldwide. Current approaches to breast cancer control developed for populations of high income societies should not be directly transferred without evaluation. A relevant research agenda includes population differences in tumor biology and metabolization of systemic therapies; cultural and psychosocial issues; and operations in health care systems. Highest priority should be given to assessments of clinical downstaging and basic systemic treatment effectiveness in low and middle income populations. Partnerships of existing organizations in high income nations with those in low and middle income countries are currently the most feasible sources of research support. PMID:18837032

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

PubMed Central

Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root. PMID:20534600

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

PubMed

Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

2016-09-01

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassidy, Emily S.; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Foley, Jonathan A.

2013-09-01

Worldwide demand for crops is increasing rapidly due to global population growth, increased biofuel production, and changing dietary preferences. Meeting these growing demands will be a substantial challenge that will tax the capability of our food system and prompt calls to dramatically boost global crop production. However, to increase food availability, we may also consider how the world’s crops are allocated to different uses and whether it is possible to feed more people with current levels of crop production. Of particular interest are the uses of crops as animal feed and as biofuel feedstocks. Currently, 36% of the calories produced by the world’s crops are being used for animal feed, and only 12% of those feed calories ultimately contribute to the human diet (as meat and other animal products). Additionally, human-edible calories used for biofuel production increased fourfold between the years 2000 and 2010, from 1% to 4%, representing a net reduction of available food globally. In this study, we re-examine agricultural productivity, going from using the standard definition of yield (in tonnes per hectare, or similar units) to using the number of people actually fed per hectare of cropland. We find that, given the current mix of crop uses, growing food exclusively for direct human consumption could, in principle, increase available food calories by as much as 70%, which could feed an additional 4 billion people (more than the projected 2-3 billion people arriving through population growth). Even small shifts in our allocation of crops to animal feed and biofuels could significantly increase global food availability, and could be an instrumental tool in meeting the challenges of ensuring global food security.

Particle tracing modeling of ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit during substorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brito, T. V.; Jordanova, V.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Henderson, M. G.; Morley, S.; Birn, J.

2016-12-01

The SHIELDS project aims to couple a host of different models for different regions of the magnetosphere using different numerical methods such as MHD, PIC and particle tracing, with the ultimate goal of having a more realistic model of the whole magnetospheric environment capturing, as much as possible, the different physics of the various plasma populations. In that context, we present a modeling framework that can be coupled with a global MHD model to calculate particle fluxes in the inner magnetosphere, which can in turn be used to constantly update the input for a ring current model. In that regard, one advantage of that approach over using spacecraft data is that it produces a much better spatial and temporal coverage of the nightside geosynchronous region and thus a possibly more complete input for the ring current model, which will likely produce more accurate global results for the ring current population. In this presentation, we will describe the particle tracing method in more detail, describe the method used to couple it to the BATS-R-US 3D global MHD code, and the method used to update the flux results to the RAM-SCB ring current model. We will also present the simulation results for the July 18, 2013 period, which showed significant substorm activity. We will compare simulated ion fluxes on the nightside magnetosphere with spacecraft observations to gauge how well our simulations are capturing substorm dynamics.

Researchers focus attention on coastal response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John; Rodriguez, Antonio; Fletcher, Charles; Fitzgerald, Duncan

The world's population has been steadily migrating toward coastal cities, resulting in severe stress on coastal environments. But the most severe human impact on coastal regions may lie ahead as the rate of global sea-level rise accelerates and the impacts of global warming on coastal climates and oceanographic dynamics increase [Varekamp and Thomas, 1998; Hinrichsen, 1999; Goodwin et al., 2000]. Little is currently being done to forecast the impact of global climate change on coasts during the next century and beyond. Indeed, there are still many politicians, and even some scientists, who doubt that global change is a real threat to society.

Restructuring brain drain: strengthening governance and financing for health worker migration.

PubMed

Mackey, Tim K; Liang, Bryan A

2013-01-15

Health worker migration from resource-poor countries to developed countries, also known as ''brain drain'', represents a serious global health crisis and a significant barrier to achieving global health equity. Resource-poor countries are unable to recruit and retain health workers for domestic health systems, resulting in inadequate health infrastructure and millions of dollars in healthcare investment losses. Using acceptable methods of policy analysis, we first assess current strategies aimed at alleviating brain drain and then propose our own global health policy based solution to address current policy limitations. Although governments and private organizations have tried to address this policy challenge, brain drain continues to destabilise public health systems and their populations globally. Most importantly, lack of adequate financing and binding governance solutions continue to fail to prevent health worker brain drain. In response to these challenges, the establishment of a Global Health Resource Fund in conjunction with an international framework for health worker migration could create global governance for stable funding mechanisms encourage equitable migration pathways, and provide data collection that is desperately needed.

Restructuring brain drain: strengthening governance and financing for health worker migration

PubMed Central

Mackey, Tim K.; Liang, Bryan A.

2013-01-01

Background Health worker migration from resource-poor countries to developed countries, also known as ‘‘brain drain’’, represents a serious global health crisis and a significant barrier to achieving global health equity. Resource-poor countries are unable to recruit and retain health workers for domestic health systems, resulting in inadequate health infrastructure and millions of dollars in healthcare investment losses. Methods Using acceptable methods of policy analysis, we first assess current strategies aimed at alleviating brain drain and then propose our own global health policy based solution to address current policy limitations. Results Although governments and private organizations have tried to address this policy challenge, brain drain continues to destabilise public health systems and their populations globally. Most importantly, lack of adequate financing and binding governance solutions continue to fail to prevent health worker brain drain. Conclusions In response to these challenges, the establishment of a Global Health Resource Fund in conjunction with an international framework for health worker migration could create global governance for stable funding mechanisms encourage equitable migration pathways, and provide data collection that is desperately needed. PMID:23336617

Global Effects of Transmitted Shock Wave Propagation Through the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere: First Results from 3-D Hybrid Kinetic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipatov, A. S.; Sibeck, D. G.

2016-01-01

We use a new hybrid kinetic model to simulate the response of ring current, outer radiation belt, and plasmaspheric particle populations to impulsive interplanetary shocks. Since particle distributions attending the interplanetary shock waves and in the ring current and radiation belts are non-Maxwellian, waveparticle interactions play a crucial role in energy transport within the inner magnetosphere. Finite gyroradius effects become important in mass loading the shock waves with the background plasma in the presence of higher energy ring current and radiation belt ions and electrons. Initial results show that shocks cause strong deformations in the global structure of the ring current, radiation belt, and plasmasphere. The ion velocity distribution functions at the shock front, in the ring current, and in the radiation belt help us determine energy transport through the Earth's inner magnetosphere.

Identifying Conservation Successes, Failures and Future Opportunities; Assessing Recovery Potential of Wild Ungulates and Tigers in Eastern Cambodia

PubMed Central

O'Kelly, Hannah J.; Evans, Tom D.; Stokes, Emma J.; Clements, Tom J.; Dara, An; Gately, Mark; Menghor, Nut; Pollard, Edward H. B.; Soriyun, Men; Walston, Joe

2012-01-01

Conservation investment, particularly for charismatic and wide-ranging large mammal species, needs to be evidence-based. Despite the prevalence of this theme within the literature, examples of robust data being generated to guide conservation policy and funding decisions are rare. We present the first published case-study of tiger conservation in Indochina, from a site where an evidence-based approach has been implemented for this iconic predator and its prey. Despite the persistence of extensive areas of habitat, Indochina's tiger and ungulate prey populations are widely supposed to have precipitously declined in recent decades. The Seima Protection Forest (SPF), and broader Eastern Plains Landscape, was identified in 2000 as representing Cambodia's best hope for tiger recovery; reflected in its designation as a Global Priority Tiger Conservation Landscape. Since 2005 distance sampling, camera-trapping and detection-dog surveys have been employed to assess the recovery potential of ungulate and tiger populations in SPF. Our results show that while conservation efforts have ensured that small but regionally significant populations of larger ungulates persist, and density trends in smaller ungulates are stable, overall ungulate populations remain well below theoretical carrying capacity. Extensive field surveys failed to yield any evidence of tiger, and we contend that there is no longer a resident population within the SPF. This local extirpation is believed to be primarily attributable to two decades of intensive hunting; but importantly, prey densities are also currently below the level necessary to support a viable tiger population. Based on these results and similar findings from neighbouring sites, Eastern Cambodia does not currently constitute a Tiger Source Site nor meet the criteria of a Global Priority Tiger Landscape. However, SPF retains global importance for many other elements of biodiversity. It retains high regional importance for ungulate populations and potentially in the future for Indochinese tigers, given adequate prey and protection. PMID:23077476

Identifying conservation successes, failures and future opportunities; assessing recovery potential of wild ungulates and tigers in Eastern Cambodia.

PubMed

O'Kelly, Hannah J; Evans, Tom D; Stokes, Emma J; Clements, Tom J; Dara, An; Gately, Mark; Menghor, Nut; Pollard, Edward H B; Soriyun, Men; Walston, Joe

2012-01-01

Conservation investment, particularly for charismatic and wide-ranging large mammal species, needs to be evidence-based. Despite the prevalence of this theme within the literature, examples of robust data being generated to guide conservation policy and funding decisions are rare. We present the first published case-study of tiger conservation in Indochina, from a site where an evidence-based approach has been implemented for this iconic predator and its prey. Despite the persistence of extensive areas of habitat, Indochina's tiger and ungulate prey populations are widely supposed to have precipitously declined in recent decades. The Seima Protection Forest (SPF), and broader Eastern Plains Landscape, was identified in 2000 as representing Cambodia's best hope for tiger recovery; reflected in its designation as a Global Priority Tiger Conservation Landscape. Since 2005 distance sampling, camera-trapping and detection-dog surveys have been employed to assess the recovery potential of ungulate and tiger populations in SPF. Our results show that while conservation efforts have ensured that small but regionally significant populations of larger ungulates persist, and density trends in smaller ungulates are stable, overall ungulate populations remain well below theoretical carrying capacity. Extensive field surveys failed to yield any evidence of tiger, and we contend that there is no longer a resident population within the SPF. This local extirpation is believed to be primarily attributable to two decades of intensive hunting; but importantly, prey densities are also currently below the level necessary to support a viable tiger population. Based on these results and similar findings from neighbouring sites, Eastern Cambodia does not currently constitute a Tiger Source Site nor meet the criteria of a Global Priority Tiger Landscape. However, SPF retains global importance for many other elements of biodiversity. It retains high regional importance for ungulate populations and potentially in the future for Indochinese tigers, given adequate prey and protection.

Global Population Genetic Analysis of Aspergillus fumigatus

PubMed Central

Ashu, Eta Ebasi; Hagen, Ferry; Chowdhary, Anuradha

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Aspergillus fumigatus is a ubiquitous opportunistic fungal pathogen capable of causing invasive aspergillosis, a globally distributed disease with a mortality rate of up to 90% in high-risk populations. Effective control and prevention of this disease require a thorough understanding of its epidemiology. However, despite significant efforts, the global molecular epidemiology of A. fumigatus remains poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed 2,026 A. fumigatus isolates from 13 countries in four continents using nine highly polymorphic microsatellite markers. Genetic cluster analyses suggest that our global sample of A. fumigatus isolates belonged to eight genetic clusters, with seven of the eight clusters showing broad geographic distributions. We found common signatures of sexual recombination within individual genetic clusters and clear evidence of hybridization between several clusters. Limited but statistically significant genetic differentiations were found among geographic and ecological populations. However, there was abundant evidence for gene flow at the local, regional, and global scales. Interestingly, the triazole-susceptible and triazole-resistant populations showed different population structures, consistent with antifungal drug pressure playing a significant role in local adaptation. Our results suggest that global populations of A. fumigatus are shaped by historical differentiation, contemporary gene flow, sexual reproduction, and the localized antifungal drug selection that is driving clonal expansion of genotypes resistant to multiple triazole drugs. IMPORTANCE The genetic diversity and geographic structure of the human fungal pathogen A. fumigatus have been the subject of many studies. However, most previous studies had relatively limited sample ranges and sizes and/or used genetic markers with low-level polymorphisms. In this paper, we characterize a global collection of strains of A. fumigatus using a panel of 9 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers. Using these markers, we analyze 2,026 isolates, which is ~3 times the number of isolates reported so far in previous studies. Our analyses suggest that A. fumigatus contains historically differentiated genetic populations but that its evolution is significantly impacted by contemporary forces such as widespread gene flow and local antifungal drug pressure. In the wake of a global rise in resistance to azoles in fungal pathogens, our findings should aid in developing management strategies to mitigate current increases to azole resistance. PMID:28168221

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Anthropogenic Transformation of the Biomes, 1700 to 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.; Lightman, D.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Ramankutty, N.

2008-12-01

Current global patterns of terrestrial ecosystem form and process are now predominantly anthropogenic as a result of land use and other direct human interactions with ecosystems. This study investigates anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere over the course of the industrial revolution by mapping and characterizing global transitions between wild and anthropogenic biomes between 1700 and 2000. A global map of potential natural vegetation was used to represent wild biomes. Anthropogenic biomes were mapped for 1700, 1800, 1900 and 2000 using rule-based classification of current and historical global data for human population density, urban area and percent land cover by cultivated crops (rainfed, irrigated, and rice) and pastures. By assuming that wild, climate-driven, biome patterns have been relatively constant since 1700, transitions between wild and anthropogenic biomes were characterized between 1700 and 2000 at century intervals. Historical analysis of wild to anthropogenic biome transitions reveal the global transition from a primarily wild to a primarily anthropogenic terrestrial biosphere. Moreover, by mapping and examining global transitions between wild and anthropogenic biome classes, we provide a simple framework for assessing and modeling both past and future global biotic and ecological patterns in the light of the extent, intensity and duration of their modification by humans.

Social Support and HIV-related Risk Behaviors: A Systematic Review of the Global Literature

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaoming; Stanton, Bonita

2013-01-01

Existing empirical evidence has well documented the role of social support in both physical and psychological well-being among various populations. In the context of HIV prevention, the rapid increase of studies on social support merits a systematic review to synthesize the current global literature on association between social support and HIV-related risk behaviors. The current review reveals a complex picture of this relationship across diverse populations. Existing studies indicate that higher levels of social support are related to fewer HIV-related risk behaviors among female sex workers and people living with HIV/AIDS and heterosexual adults in general. However, influences of social support on HIV-related risk behaviors are inconsistent within drug users, men who have sex with men and adolescents. These variations in findings may be attributed to different measurement of social support in different studies, specific context of social support for diverse population, or various characteristics of the social networks the study population obtained support from. Future studies are needed to explore the mechanism of how social support affects HIV-related risk behaviors. HIV prevention intervention efforts need to focus on the positive effect of social support for various vulnerable and at-risk populations. Future efforts also need to incorporate necessary structure change and utilize technical innovation in order to maximize the protective role of social support in HIV risk prevention or reduction. PMID:23921582

Are wildland watersheds safest and best?

Treesearch

Lawrence S. Hamilton

2007-01-01

The 2003 International Year of Freshwater highlighted the critical current and future scenario, on a global scale, of scarcity of adequate water—the essential need for all living things. About 40 percent of the world’s population currently have moderate to high water stress, and it is estimated that by 2025 about two-thirds of the world will live in areas facing such...

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Economic and Political Innovation for Nutritional Improvement.

PubMed

von Braun, Joachim

2018-01-01

Large shares of the world population are still affected by nutrition deficiencies and undernutrition. However, the current global agriculture and food system and its international governance shows signs of serious malfunctioning, and is not equipped to cope with the current and future challenges it is facing. In view of the complex and multi-dimensional nature of nutrition problems, a framework is put forward here to improve the understanding of underlying causalities, and to identify priorities for action. In doing so, this paper focuses on economic and policy innovation. Better nutrition policy requires systematic, multi-faceted policy innovations, that is, the re-design of the current global food and nutrition governance system, and the adoption of innovative economic and political approaches. To achieve efficient and effective nutrition policy, more attention, leadership, funds, and a global organizational home for better coordination are needed. A systematic science and policy interface in the form of an International Panel on Food, Nutrition and Agriculture is proposed to provide a strong evidence base for nutrition policies. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Determinants of pika population density vs. occupancy in the Southern Rocky Mountains.

PubMed

Erb, Liesl P; Ray, Chris; Guralnick, Robert

2014-04-01

Species distributions are responding rapidly to global change. While correlative studies of local extinction have been vital to understanding the ecological impacts of global change, more mechanistic lines of inquiry are needed for enhanced forecasting. The current study assesses whether the predictors of local extinction also explain population density for a species apparently impacted by climate change. We tested a suite of climatic and habitat metrics as predictors of American pika (Ochotona princeps) relative population density in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Population density was indexed as the density of pika latrine sites. Negative binomial regression and AICc showed that the best predictors of pika latrine density were patch area followed by two measures of vegetation quality: the diversity and relative cover of forbs. In contrast with previous studies of habitat occupancy in the Southern Rockies, climatic factors were not among the top predictors of latrine density. Populations may be buffered from decline and ultimately from extirpation at sites with high-quality vegetation. Conversely, populations at highest risk for declining density and extirpation are likely to be those in sites with poor-quality vegetation.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

Structure and phylogeography of two tropical predators, spinner (Stenella longirostris) and pantropical spotted (S. attenuata) dolphins, from SNP data

PubMed Central

Morin, Phillip A.

2018-01-01

Little is known about global patterns of genetic connectivity in pelagic dolphins, including how circumtropical pelagic dolphins spread globally following the rapid and recent radiation of the subfamily delphininae. In this study, we tested phylogeographic hypotheses for two circumtropical species, the spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) and the pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata), using more than 3000 nuclear DNA single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in each species. Analyses for population structure indicated significant genetic differentiation between almost all subspecies and populations in both species. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses of spinner dolphins showed deep divergence between Indo-Pacific, Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) lineages. Despite high morphological variation, our results show very close relationships between endemic ETP spinner subspecies in relation to global diversity. The dwarf spinner dolphin is a monophyletic subspecies nested within a major clade of pantropical spinner dolphins from the Indian and western Pacific Ocean populations. Population-level division among the dwarf spinner dolphins was detected—with the northern Australia population being very different from that in Indonesia. In contrast to spinner dolphins, the major boundary for spotted dolphins is between offshore and coastal habitats in the ETP, supporting the current subspecies-level taxonomy. Comparing these species underscores the different scale at which population structure can arise, even in species that are similar in habitat (i.e. pelagic) and distribution. PMID:29765639

Dengue vaccine: come let's fight the menace.

PubMed

Chawla, Sumit; Sahoo, Soumya Swaroop; Singh, Inderjeet; Verma, Madhur; Gupta, Vikas; Kumari, Sneh

2015-01-01

Although dengue has a global distribution, the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia region together with Western Pacific region bears nearly 75% of the current global disease burden. Globally, the societal burden has been estimated to be approximately 528 to 1300 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per million to populations in endemic regions Dengue is believed to infect 50 to 100 million people worldwide a year with half a million life-threatening infections requiring hospitalization, resulting in approximately 12,500 to 25,000 deaths. Despite being known for decades and nearly half the world's population is at risk for infection with as many as 100 million cases occurring annually, the pitiable state is that we still have no antiviral drugs to treat it and no vaccines to prevent it. In recent years, however, the development of dengue vaccines has accelerated dramatically in tandem with the burgeoning dengue problem with a rejuvenated vigour. However, recent progress in molecular-based vaccine strategies, as well as a renewed commitment by the World Health Organization (WHO) to co-ordinate global efforts on vaccine development, finally provides hope that control of this serious disease may be at hand. Today, several vaccines are in various stages of advanced development, with clinical trials currently underway on 5 candidate vaccines. Trials in the most advanced stages are showing encouraging preliminary data, and the leading candidate could be licensed as early as 2015.

Global use of alcohol, drugs and tobacco.

PubMed

Anderson, Peter

2006-11-01

Humans have always used drugs, probably as part of their evolutionary and nutritional heritage. However, this previous biological adaptation is unlikely to be so in the modern world, in which 2 billion adults (48% of the adult population) are current users of alcohol, 1.1 billion adults (29% of the adult population) are current smokers of cigarettes and 185 million adults (4.5% of the adult population) are current users of illicit drugs. The use of drugs is determined largely by market forces, with increases in affordability and availability increasing use. People with socio-economic deprivation, however measured, are at increased risk of harmful drug use, as are those with a disadvantaged family environment, and those who live in a community with higher levels of substance use. Substance use is on the increase in low-income countries which, in the coming decades, will bear a disproportionate burden of substance-related disability and premature death.

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

Cross-Cultural Effects of Cannabis Use Disorder: Evidence to Support a Cultural Neuroscience Approach

PubMed Central

Prashad, Shikha; Milligan, Amber L.; Cousijn, Janna; Filbey, Francesca M.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review Cannabis use disorders (CUDs) are prevalent worldwide. Current epidemiological studies underscore differences in behaviors that contribute to cannabis use across cultures that can be leveraged towards prevention and treatment of CUDs. This review proposes a framework for understanding the effects of cross-cultural differences on psychological, neural, and genomic processes underlying CUDs that has the potential to inform global policies and impact global public health. Recent findings We found that cultural factors may influence (1) the willingness to acknowledge CUD-related symptoms among populations of different countries, and (2) neural responses related to the sense of self, perception, emotion, and attention. These findings leverage the potential effects of culture on neural mechanisms underlying CUDs. Summary As the number of individuals seeking treatment for CUDs increases globally, it is imperative to incorporate cultural considerations to better understand and serve differing populations and develop more targeted treatment strategies and interventions. PMID:29062679

Cross-Cultural Effects of Cannabis Use Disorder: Evidence to Support a Cultural Neuroscience Approach.

PubMed

Prashad, Shikha; Milligan, Amber L; Cousijn, Janna; Filbey, Francesca M

2017-06-01

Cannabis use disorders (CUDs) are prevalent worldwide. Current epidemiological studies underscore differences in behaviors that contribute to cannabis use across cultures that can be leveraged towards prevention and treatment of CUDs. This review proposes a framework for understanding the effects of cross-cultural differences on psychological, neural, and genomic processes underlying CUDs that has the potential to inform global policies and impact global public health. We found that cultural factors may influence (1) the willingness to acknowledge CUD-related symptoms among populations of different countries, and (2) neural responses related to the sense of self, perception, emotion, and attention. These findings leverage the potential effects of culture on neural mechanisms underlying CUDs. As the number of individuals seeking treatment for CUDs increases globally, it is imperative to incorporate cultural considerations to better understand and serve differing populations and develop more targeted treatment strategies and interventions.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subsetmore » of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Social Determinants of Health and Tobacco Use in Five Low and Middle-Income Countries - Results from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS), 2011 - 2012.

PubMed

Tee, Guat Hiong; Aris, Tahir; Rarick, James; Irimie, Sorina

2016-01-01

Tobacco consumption continues to be the leading cause of preventable deaths globally. The objective of this study was to examine the associaton of selected socio-demographic variables with current tobacco use in five countries that participated in the Phase II Global Adult Tobacco Survey in 2011 - 2012. We analysed internationally comparable representative household survey data from 33,482 respondents aged ≥ 15 years in Indonesia, Malaysia, Romania, Argentina and Nigeria for determinants of tobacco use within each country. Socio-demographic variables analysed included gender, age, residency, education, wealth index and awareness of smoking health consequences. Current tobacco use was defined as smoking or use of smokeless tobacco daily or occasionally. The overall prevalence of tobacco use varied from 5.5% in Nigeria to 35.7% in Indonesia and was significantly higher among males than females in all five countries. Odds ratios for current tobacco use were significantly higher among males for all countries [with the greatest odds among Indonesian men (OR=67.4, 95% CI: 51.2-88.7)] and among urban dwellers in Romania. The odds of current tobacco use decreased as age increased for all countries except Nigeria where. The reverse was true for Argentina and Nigeria. Significant trends for decreasing tobacco use with increasing educational levels and wealth index were seen in Indonesia, Malaysia and Romania. Significant negative associations between current tobacco use and awareness of adverse health consequences of smoking were found in all countries except Argentina. Males and the socially and economically disadvantaged populations are at the greatest risk of tobacco use. Tobacco control interventions maybe tailored to this segment of population and incorporate educational interventions to increase knowledge of adverse health consequences of smoking.

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

Self-Esteem of 8-14-Year-Old Children with Psychiatric Disorders: Disorder- and Gender-Specific Effects.

PubMed

Stadelmann, Stephanie; Grunewald, Madlen; Gibbels, Charlotte; Jaeger, Sonia; Matuschek, Tina; Weis, Steffi; Klein, Annette Maria; Hiemisch, Andreas; von Klitzing, Kai; Döhnert, Mirko

2017-02-01

In this study, we investigated the relation between global and domain-specific self-esteem and psychiatric disorders. A sample of 577 children aged 8-14 years was recruited via psychiatric hospitals and from the general population. Parents were given a diagnostic interview to assess children's psychiatric diagnoses (current/past). Parents and children completed questionnaires on child symptoms. Children completed a questionnaire on global and domain-specific self-esteem (scales: scholastic competence, social acceptance, athletic performance and physical appearance, global self-esteem). Self-esteem of children with current psychiatric disorders was lower than that of healthy controls (η p 2 between 0.01 and 0.08). Concerning scholastic competence, social acceptance and global self-esteem, children with past psychiatric disorders scored also lower than healthy controls. Different current psychiatric disorders showed specific but small effects on dimensions of self-esteem (β between -0.08 and 0.19). Moreover, we found a gender × group interaction, indicating that girls with depressive and adjustment disorders were specifically impaired in their global self-esteem and perception of their physical appearance. Findings might help clinicians to focus on particular domains of self-esteem during the diagnostic process and to define adequate treatment goals.

[The current state of obesity in Mexico].

PubMed

Barrera-Cruz, Antonio; Rodríguez-González, Arturo; Molina-Ayala, Mario Antonio

2013-01-01

Excess weight (overweight and obesity) is currently recognized as one of the most important challenges of public health in the world, given its size, speed of growth, and the negative effect on the population who suffers it. Overweight and obesity increases significantly the risk of chronic non-communicable diseases, and premature mortality, as well as the social cost of health. Today, Mexico has the second global prevalence of obesity in the adult population (30 %), which is ten times higher than Korea's or Japan's (4 %). Until 2012, 26 million Mexican adults were overweight, and 22 million, obese. This implies a major challenge for the health sector. Mexico needs to plan and implement strategies and cost-effective actions for the prevention and control of obesity in children, adolescents, and adults. Global experience shows that proper care of obesity and overweight demands to formulate and coordinate efficient multi-sectoral strategies for enhancing protective factors to health, particularly to modify individual behavior, family and community.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

PubMed

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

PubMed Central

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Gosling, Simon N.; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T.; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-01-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. PMID:24344289

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-06-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

PubMed Central

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-01-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends. PMID:27271481

Epigenetic contribution to successful polyploidizations: variation in global cytosine methylation along an extensive ploidy series in Dianthus broteri (Caryophyllaceae).

PubMed

Alonso, Conchita; Balao, Francisco; Bazaga, Pilar; Pérez, Ricardo

2016-11-01

Polyploidization is a significant evolutionary force in plants which involves major genomic and genetic changes, frequently regulated by epigenetic factors. We explored whether natural polyploidization in Dianthus broteri complex resulted in substantial changes in global DNA cytosine methylation associated to ploidy. Global cytosine methylation was estimated by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in 12 monocytotypic populations with different ploidies (2×, 4×, 6×, 12×) broadly distributed within D. broteri distribution range. The effects of ploidy level and local variation on methylation were assessed by generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Dianthus broteri exhibited a higher methylation percent (˜33%) than expected by its monoploid genome size and a large variation among study populations (range: 29.3-35.3%). Global methylation tended to increase with ploidy but did not significantly differ across levels due to increased variation within the highest-order polyploidy categories. Methylation varied more among hexaploid and dodecaploid populations, despite such cytotypes showing more restricted geographic location and increased genetic relatedness than diploids and tetraploids. In this study, we demonstrate the usefulness of an HPLC method in providing precise and genome reference-free global measure of DNA cytosine methylation, suitable to advance current knowledge of the roles of this epigenetic mechanism in polyploidization processes. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P

2016-03-01

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

Global Population Profile: 2002. International Population Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christenson, Matthew; McDevitt, Thomas; Stanecki, Karen

2004-01-01

Global Population Profile: 2002 summarizes the most important trends in global population at the dawn of the 21st century. The presentation is organized around four themes: (1) Global Population; (2) Growth, Global Population; (3) Composition, Contraceptive Prevalence in the Developing World; and (4) the AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century. This…

Opportunities for Enhanced Strategic Use of Surveys, Medical Records, and Program Data for HIV Surveillance of Key Populations: Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Baral, Stefan D; Edwards, Jessie K; Zadrozny, Sabrina; Hargreaves, James; Zhao, Jinkou; Sabin, Keith

2018-01-01

Background Normative guidelines from the World Health Organization recommend tracking strategic information indicators among key populations. Monitoring progress in the global response to the HIV epidemic uses indicators put forward by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. These include the 90-90-90 targets that require a realignment of surveillance data, routinely collected program data, and medical record data, which historically have developed separately. Objective The aim of this study was to describe current challenges for monitoring HIV-related strategic information indicators among key populations ((men who have sex with men [MSM], people in prisons and other closed settings, people who inject drugs, sex workers, and transgender people) and identify future opportunities to enhance the use of surveillance data, programmatic data, and medical record data to describe the HIV epidemic among key populations and measure the coverage of HIV prevention, care, and treatment programs. Methods To provide a historical perspective, we completed a scoping review of the expansion of HIV surveillance among key populations over the past three decades. To describe current efforts, we conducted a review of the literature to identify published examples of SI indicator estimates among key populations. To describe anticipated challenges and future opportunities to improve measurement of strategic information indicators, particularly from routine program and health data, we consulted participants of the Third Global HIV Surveillance Meeting in Bangkok, where the 2015 World Health Organization strategic information guidelines were launched. Results There remains suboptimal alignment of surveillance and programmatic data, as well as routinely collected medical records to facilitate the reporting of the 90-90-90 indicators for HIV among key populations. Studies (n=3) with estimates of all three 90-90-90 indicators rely on cross-sectional survey data. Programmatic data and medical record data continue to be insufficiently robust to provide estimates of the 90-90-90 targets for key populations. Conclusions Current reliance on more active data collection processes, including key population-specific surveys, remains warranted until the quality and validity of passively collected routine program and medical record data for key populations is optimized. PMID:29789279

Differences in tobacco smoking prevalence and frequency between adolescent Palestine refugee and non-refugee populations in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank: cross-sectional analysis of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

PubMed

Jawad, Mohammed; Khader, Ali; Millett, Christopher

2016-01-01

Evidence is conflicting as to the whether tobacco smoking prevalence is higher in refugee than non-refugee populations. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence and frequency of tobacco smoking in Palestine refugee and non-refugee adolescent populations in the Middle East. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) conducted in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank among adolescent Palestine refugees and non-refugees. Age- and sex-adjusted regression models assessed the association between refugee status and current (past-30 day) tobacco use prevalence and frequency. Prevalence estimates for current tobacco smoking were similar between Palestine refugee and non-refugee groups in Jordan (26.7 % vs. 24.0 %), Lebanon (39.4 % vs. 38.5 %), and the West Bank (39.5 % vs. 38.4 %). In Syria, Palestine refugees had nearly twice the odds of current tobacco smoking compared to non-refugees (23.2 % vs. 36.6 %, AOR 1.96, 95 % CI 1.46-2.62). Palestine refugees consumed more cigarettes per month than non-refugees in Lebanon (β 0.57, 95 % CI 0.17-0.97) and Palestine refugees consumed more waterpipe tobacco per month than non-refugees in Syria (β 0.40, 95 % CI 0.19-0.61) and the West Bank (β 0.42, 95 % CI 0.21-0.64). Current tobacco smoking prevalence is in excess of 20 % in both adolescent Palestine refugee and non-refugee populations in Middle Eastern countries, however Palestine refugees may smoke tobacco more frequently than non-refugees. Comparison of simple prevalence estimates may therefore mask important differences in tobacco use patterns within population groups.

The U.S. immigration crisis.

PubMed

Stacey, G P; Lutton, W

1985-01-01

A review of the factors affecting immigration to the United States is presented. The authors develop the argument that present levels of immigration, particularly illegal immigration, are detrimental to U.S. interests, and that current global population trends will make this situation progressively worse. Stricter controls on immigration are considered.

Characterization of the nest site preferences of Saltmarsh and Nelson's Sparrows, and hybrids

EPA Science Inventory

Saltmarsh Sparrows (hereafter SALS) are named on the National Audubon Society’s current WatchList as a species of global conservation concern (National Audubon Society 2007). Anthropogenic climate change is perhaps the largest threat to SALS populations because sea level ri...

Alien Genetic Algorithm for Exploration of Search Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Narendra; Padhiyar, Nitin

2010-10-01

Genetic Algorithm (GA) is a widely accepted population based stochastic optimization technique used for single and multi objective optimization problems. Various versions of modifications in GA have been proposed in last three decades mainly addressing two issues, namely increasing convergence rate and increasing probability of global minima. While both these. While addressing the first issue, GA tends to converge to a local optima and addressing the second issue corresponds the large computational efforts. Thus, to reduce the contradictory effects of these two aspects, we propose a modification in GA by adding an alien member in the population at every generation. Addition of an Alien member in the current population at every generation increases the probability of obtaining global minima at the same time maintaining higher convergence rate. With two test cases, we have demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed GA by comparing with the conventional GA.

Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

PubMed

Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

2016-01-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. © The Author(s) 2015.

Vaccinology in the third millennium: scientific and social challenges

PubMed Central

Poland, Gregory A.; Whitaker, Jennifer A.; Poland, Caroline M.; Ovsyannikova, Inna G.; Kennedy, Richard B.

2016-01-01

The epidemiology of deaths due to vaccine-preventable diseases has been significantly and positively altered through the use of vaccines. Despite this, significant challenges remain in vaccine development and use in the third millennium. Both new (Ebola, Chikungunya, West Nile) and re-emerging diseases (measles, mumps, influenza) require the development of new or next-generation vaccines. The global aging of the population, and accumulating numbers of immunocompromised persons, will require new vaccine and adjuvant development to protect large segments of the population. After vaccine development, significant challenges remain globally in the cost and efficient use and acceptance of vaccines by the public. This article raises issues in these two areas and suggests a way forward that will benefit current and future generations. PMID:27039875

Sources and sinks of Earth's ring current populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauk, B.

2017-12-01

Processes that modify and transport current-carrying particles into and out of Earth's ring current regions are overviewed and discussed here with a focus on outstanding mysteries and uncertainties. Examples of such mysteries include the following. Some modeling and observational approaches point to a need for storm-time enhancements in the global electric field configuration to help bring magnetotail populations into the inner magnetosphere. And yet, electric field measurements from several missions, most recently the Van Allen Probes, suggest that only highly transient enhancements occur in critical regions that connect the outer and inner regions. Global enhancements appear to be internally generated rather than necessarily being driven from the outside. Another sample mystery involves the processes that give rise to the sometimes initial prompt recovery of the magnetic storm indice DST, given that loss processes traditionally invoked are likely too slow. Wave losses, such as those engendered by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves, may be responsible, but observational support for such a solution is lacking. These and other uncertainties are discussed with a goal of addressing how they might be addressed with the present great constellation of Earth-orbiting spacecraft, most recently joined by MMS and Arase (ERG).

Current global iodine status and progress over the last decade towards the elimination of iodine deficiency.

PubMed Central

Andersson, Maria; Takkouche, Bahi; Egli, Ines; Allen, Henrietta E.; de Benoist, Bruno

2005-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate worldwide iodine nutrition and monitor country progress towards sustained elimination of iodine deficiency disorders. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on urinary iodine (UI) and total goitre prevalence (TGP) in school-age children from 1993-2003 compiled in the WHO Global Database on Iodine Deficiency were analysed. The median UI was used to classify countries according to the public health significance of their iodine nutrition status. Estimates of the global and regional populations with insufficient iodine intake were based on the proportion of each country's population with UI below 100 microg/l. TGP was computed for trend analysis over 10 years. FINDINGS: UI data were available for 92.1% of the world's school-age children. Iodine deficiency is still a public health problem in 54 countries. A total of 36.5% (285 million) school-age children were estimated to have an insufficient iodine intake, ranging from 10.1% in the WHO Region of the Americas to 59.9% in the European Region. Extrapolating this prevalence to the general population generated an estimate of nearly two billion individuals with insufficient iodine intake. Iodine intake was more than adequate, or excessive, in 29 countries. Global TGP in the general population was 15.8%. CONCLUSION: Forty-three countries have reached optimal iodine nutrition. Strengthened UI monitoring is required to ensure that salt iodization is having the desired impact, to identify at-risk populations and to ensure sustainable prevention and control of iodine deficiency. Efforts to eliminate iodine deficiency should be maintained and expanded. PMID:16175826

The Effects of Bursty Bulk Flows on Global-Scale Current Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Cao, J.; Fu, H.; Lu, H.; Yao, Z.

2017-12-01

Using a global magnetospheric MHD model coupled with a kinetic ring current model, we investigate the effects of magnetotail dynamics, particularly the earthward bursty bulk flows (BBFs) produced by the tail reconnection, on the global-scale current systems. The simulation results indicate that after BBFs brake around X = -10 RE due to the dipolar "magnetic wall," vortices are generated on the edge of the braking region and inside the inner magnetosphere. Each pair of vortex in the inner magnetosphere disturbs the westward ring current to arc radially inward as well as toward high latitudes. The resultant pressure gradient on the azimuthal direction induces region-1 sense field-aligned component from the ring current, which eventually is diverted into the ionosphere at high latitudes, giving rise to a pair of field-aligned current (FAC) eddies in the ionosphere. On the edge of the flow braking region where vortices also emerge, a pair of region-1 sense FACs arises, diverted fromthe cross-tail duskward current, generating a substorm current wedge. This is again attributed to the increase of thermal pressure ahead of the bursty flows turning azimuthally. It is further found that when multiple BBFs, despite their localization, continually and rapidly impinge on the "wall," carrying sufficient tail plasma sheet population toward the Earth, they can lead to the formation of a new ring current. These results indicate the important role that BBFs play in bridging the tail and the inner magnetosphere ring current and bring new insight into the storm-substorm relation.

The effects of bursty bulk flows on global-scale current systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yiqun; Cao, Jinbin; Fu, Huishan; Lu, Haoyu; Yao, Zhonghua

2017-06-01

Using a global magnetospheric MHD model coupled with a kinetic ring current model, we investigate the effects of magnetotail dynamics, particularly the earthward bursty bulk flows (BBFs) produced by the tail reconnection, on the global-scale current systems. The simulation results indicate that after BBFs brake around X = -10 RE due to the dipolar "magnetic wall," vortices are generated on the edge of the braking region and inside the inner magnetosphere. Each pair of vortex in the inner magnetosphere disturbs the westward ring current to arc radially inward as well as toward high latitudes. The resultant pressure gradient on the azimuthal direction induces region-1 sense field-aligned component from the ring current, which eventually is diverted into the ionosphere at high latitudes, giving rise to a pair of field-aligned current (FAC) eddies in the ionosphere. On the edge of the flow braking region where vortices also emerge, a pair of region-1 sense FACs arises, diverted from the cross-tail duskward current, generating a substorm current wedge. This is again attributed to the increase of thermal pressure ahead of the bursty flows turning azimuthally. It is further found that when multiple BBFs, despite their localization, continually and rapidly impinge on the "wall," carrying sufficient tail plasma sheet population toward the Earth, they can lead to the formation of a new ring current. These results indicate the important role that BBFs play in bridging the tail and the inner magnetosphere ring current and bring new insight into the storm-substorm relation.

Progress and challenges to the global waste management system.

PubMed

Singh, Jagdeep; Laurenti, Rafael; Sinha, Rajib; Frostell, Björn

2014-09-01

Rapid economic growth, urbanization and increasing population have caused (materially intensive) resource consumption to increase, and consequently the release of large amounts of waste to the environment. From a global perspective, current waste and resource management lacks a holistic approach covering the whole chain of product design, raw material extraction, production, consumption, recycling and waste management. In this article, progress and different sustainability challenges facing the global waste management system are presented and discussed. The study leads to the conclusion that the current, rather isolated efforts, in different systems for waste management, waste reduction and resource management are indeed not sufficient in a long term sustainability perspective. In the future, to manage resources and wastes sustainably, waste management requires a more systems-oriented approach that addresses the root causes for the problems. A specific issue to address is the development of improved feedback information (statistics) on how waste generation is linked to consumption. © The Author(s) 2014.

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Blancher, Peter J; Rodewald, Amanda D; Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Rosenberg, Kenneth V; Hochachka, Wesley M; Verburg, Peter H; Kelling, Steve

2017-12-01

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global rates of habitat loss and implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallant, Alisa L.; Klaver, R.W.; Casper, G.S.; Lannoo, M.J.

2007-01-01

A large number of factors are known to affect amphibian population viability, but most authors agree that the principal causes of amphibian declines are habitat loss, alteration, and fragmentation. We provide a global assessment of land use dynamics in the context of amphibian distributions. We accomplished this by compiling global maps of amphibian species richness and recent rates of change in land cover, land use, and human population growth. The amphibian map was developed using a combination of published literature and digital databases. We used an ecoregion framework to help interpret species distributions across environmental, rather than political, boundaries. We mapped rates of land cover and use change with statistics from the World Resources Institute, refined with a global digital dataset on land cover derived from satellite data. Temporal maps of human population were developed from the World Resources Institute database and other published sources. Our resultant map of amphibian species richness illustrates that amphibians are distributed in an uneven pattern around the globe, preferring terrestrial and freshwater habitats in ecoregions that are warm and moist. Spatiotemporal patterns of human population show that, prior to the 20th century, population growth and spread was slower, most extensive in the temperate ecoregions, and largely exclusive of major regions of high amphibian richness. Since the beginning of the 20th century, human population growth has been exponential and has occurred largely in the subtropical and tropical ecoregions favored by amphibians. Population growth has been accompanied by broad-scale changes in land cover and land use, typically in support of agriculture. We merged information on land cover, land use, and human population growth to generate a composite map showing the rates at which humans have been changing the world. When compared with the map of amphibian species richness, we found that many of the regions of the earth supporting the richest assemblages of amphibians are currently undergoing the highest rates of landscape modification.

Genome-wide prediction models that incorporate de novo GWAS are a powerful new tool for tropical rice improvement

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To address the multiple challenges to food security posed by global climate change, population growth and rising incomes, plant breeders are developing new crop varieties that can enhance both agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. Current breeding practices, however, are unable...

Role of Technology in Decision Making: Exploring Land-Use Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zaino, Maureen A.

2012-01-01

Increases in population, climatic changes, and other environmental issues are current challenges affecting the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) decision to examine land-use trends and emphasize efficient use and reuse of limited resources. Because of global concerns involving limited natural resources, researchers recognize land-use decision…

Effects of Seawater Acidification on the Liffe Cycle and Fitness of Opossum Shrimp Population

EPA Science Inventory

Much of the current concern about ecological effects of ocean acidification focuses on molluscs and coccolithophores because of their importance in the global calcium cycle. However, many other marine organisms are likely to be affected by acidification because of their known se...

Effects of Seawater Acidification on the Life Cycle and fitness of Opossum Shrimp Populations

EPA Science Inventory

Much of the current concern about ecological effects of ocean acidification focuses on molluscs and coccolithophores because of their importance in the global calcium cycle. However, many other marine organisms are likely to be affected by acidification because of their known ph...

The "Redirecting" of International Students: American Higher Education Policy Hindrances and Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

García, Hugo A.; Villarreal, María de Lourdes

2014-01-01

International student mobility in higher education has gained currency as an important topic in today's global, political, and economic environment. United States postsecondary institutions are working to expand their international student population to increase revenue and diversity. The current higher education and economic context has produced…

Indigenous Population Mobilities and School Achievement: International Educational Research Itineraries, Issues and Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danaher, P. A.

2012-01-01

This paper situates the articles in this special theme issue of the "International Journal of Educational Research" within the broader global literature regarding the educational experiences and opportunities of mobile communities. The paper distils those articles' contributions to extending current understandings about the specific…

Current update in methodologies for extraction and analysis of isoflvones and proteins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soy foods are traditional culinary staples for a significant proportion of the Asian population. In the past several decades, soy and its food products have become popular globally because of their valuable health benefits. There are many recent reports on bioactive components, largely isoflavones t...

A Pedagogy for Global Understanding--Intercultural Dialogue: From Theory to Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dulabaum, Nina L.

2011-01-01

Given the current tensions and animosities between people of varying cultural and ethnic groups, intercultural dialogue, rooted in Europe's humanist tradition, offers a concrete strategy for fostering understanding, promoting tolerance and breaking down barriers based on stereotypes and xenophobic violence. As the world's population increases each…

Food security in the 21st century: Global yield projections and agricultural expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. F.; Rulli, M.; D'Odorico, P.

2013-12-01

Global demands on agricultural lands are ever increasing as a result of population growth, changes in diet and increasing biofuel use. By mid-century, the demands for food and fiber are expected to roughly double with the population reaching 9.5 billion. However, earth's finite resource base places a ceiling on the amount of agricultural production that is possible. Several strategies have been widely discussed to meet these rapid increases and to extend the ceiling yet higher, including reducing waste, modifying diets, improving yield and productivity and expanding agriculture and aquaculture. One of the most promising of these is closing the yield gap of currently under-performing agricultural land that has the potential to be much more productive. With high inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers), this strategy has real potential to increase food security, particularly in the developing world where population is expected to sharply increase and where a high potential for yield gap closure exists. Thus it is important to consider whether improvements in global yield can adequately meet global dietary demand during the 21st century. Constructing yield projections to the end of the century, we examine whether global crop production for 154 countries and 16 major food crops under selected agricultural and dietary scenarios can keep pace with estimates of population growth to 2100. By calculating the global production of calories, we are then able to examine how many people can be supported under future scenarios and how closing yield gaps can increase this potential. Our findings agree with previous studies that closing the yield gap alone cannot provide sufficient production by mid-century and that a heavy global dependence on trade will persist throughout the century. Using high-resolution global land suitability maps under a suite of climate models, we find that scenarios incorporating a combination of yield gap closure and agricultural expansion provide the most promise in meeting global demand. However, this must be done with the goal of sustainable agriculture in mind and in a way that minimizes detrimental environmental impacts, particularly to forested areas and rangelands.

Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds.

PubMed

Fung, Fai; Lopez, Ana; New, Mark

2011-01-13

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Corey J A; Brook, Barry W

2014-11-18

The inexorable demographic momentum of the global human population is rapidly eroding Earth's life-support system. There are consequently more frequent calls to address environmental problems by advocating further reductions in human fertility. To examine how quickly this could lead to a smaller human population, we used scenario-based matrix modeling to project the global population to the year 2100. Assuming a continuation of current trends in mortality reduction, even a rapid transition to a worldwide one-child policy leads to a population similar to today's by 2100. Even a catastrophic mass mortality event of 2 billion deaths over a hypothetical 5-y window in the mid-21(st) century would still yield around 8.5 billion people by 2100. In the absence of catastrophe or large fertility reductions (to fewer than two children per female worldwide), the greatest threats to ecosystems--as measured by regional projections within the 35 global Biodiversity Hotspots--indicate that Africa and South Asia will experience the greatest human pressures on future ecosystems. Humanity's large demographic momentum means that there are no easy policy levers to change the size of the human population substantially over coming decades, short of extreme and rapid reductions in female fertility; it will take centuries, and the long-term target remains unclear. However, some reduction could be achieved by midcentury and lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed. More immediate results for sustainability would emerge from policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources.

Localized past, globalized future: towards an effective bioethical framework using examples from population genetics and medical tourism.

PubMed

Widdows, Heather

2011-02-01

This paper suggests that many of the pressing dilemmas of bioethics are global and structural in nature. Accordingly, global ethical frameworks are required which recognize the ethically significant factors of all global actors. To this end, ethical frameworks must recognize the rights and interests of both individuals and groups (and the interrelation of these). The paper suggests that the current dominant bioethical framework is inadequate to this task as it is over-individualist and therefore unable to give significant weight to the ethical demands of groups (and by extension communal and public goods). It will explore this theme by considering the inadequacy of informed consent (the 'global standard' of bioethics) to address two pressing global bioethical issues: medical tourism and population genetics. Using these examples it will show why consent is inadequate to address all the significant features of these ethical dilemmas. Four key failures will be explored, namely, • That the rights and interests of those related (and therefore affected) are neglected; • That consent fails to take account of the context and commitments of individuals which may constitute inducement and coercion; • That consent alone does not have the ethical weight to negate exploitation or make an unjust action just ('the fallacy of sufficiency'); • That consent is a single one-off act which is inappropriate for the types of decision being made. It will conclude by suggesting that more appropriate models are emerging, particularly in population genetics, which can supplement consent. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global population structure of the tope (Galeorhinus galeus) inferred by mitochondrial control region sequence data.

PubMed

Chabot, C L; Allen, L G

2009-02-01

In order to properly manage and conserve exploited shark species, detailed analyses of their population structure is needed. Global populations of Galeorhinus galeus are in decline due to the exploitation of the fishery over the past 80 years. Currently, the genetic structure of eastern Pacific populations of G. galeus is not known and recent observations in the northeastern Pacific suggest an increase in numbers. To evaluate gene flow among populations of G. galeus, 116 samples were collected and analysed from six geographically dispersed locations: Australia, North America, South Africa, South America (Argentina and Peru), and the UK. Analysis of 968 to 1006 bp of the 1068-bp mitochondrial control region revealed 38 unique haplotypes that were largely restricted to their collecting locality. Significant genetic structure was detected among populations (Phi(ST) = 0.84; P < 0.000001) and migration estimates were low (Nm = 0.05-0.97). Due to an apparent lack of migration, populations of G. galeus appear to be isolated from each other with little to no gene flow occurring among them. As a consequence of this isolation, increasing numbers of G. galeus in the northeastern Pacific can be best explained by local recruitment and not by input from geographically distant populations.

Human Health Risk Assessment Applied to Rural Populations Dependent on Unregulated Drinking Water Sources: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Ford, Lorelei; Bharadwaj, Lalita; McLeod, Lianne; Waldner, Cheryl

2017-07-28

Safe drinking water is a global challenge for rural populations dependent on unregulated water. A scoping review of research on human health risk assessments (HHRA) applied to this vulnerable population may be used to improve assessments applied by government and researchers. This review aims to summarize and describe the characteristics of HHRA methods, publications, and current literature gaps of HHRA studies on rural populations dependent on unregulated or unspecified drinking water. Peer-reviewed literature was systematically searched (January 2000 to May 2014) and identified at least one drinking water source as unregulated (21%) or unspecified (79%) in 100 studies. Only 7% of reviewed studies identified a rural community dependent on unregulated drinking water. Source water and hazards most frequently cited included groundwater (67%) and chemical water hazards (82%). Most HHRAs (86%) applied deterministic methods with 14% reporting probabilistic and stochastic methods. Publications increased over time with 57% set in Asia, and 47% of studies identified at least one literature gap in the areas of research, risk management, and community exposure. HHRAs applied to rural populations dependent on unregulated water are poorly represented in the literature even though almost half of the global population is rural.

Human Health Risk Assessment Applied to Rural Populations Dependent on Unregulated Drinking Water Sources: A Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Ford, Lorelei; Bharadwaj, Lalita; McLeod, Lianne; Waldner, Cheryl

2017-01-01

Safe drinking water is a global challenge for rural populations dependent on unregulated water. A scoping review of research on human health risk assessments (HHRA) applied to this vulnerable population may be used to improve assessments applied by government and researchers. This review aims to summarize and describe the characteristics of HHRA methods, publications, and current literature gaps of HHRA studies on rural populations dependent on unregulated or unspecified drinking water. Peer-reviewed literature was systematically searched (January 2000 to May 2014) and identified at least one drinking water source as unregulated (21%) or unspecified (79%) in 100 studies. Only 7% of reviewed studies identified a rural community dependent on unregulated drinking water. Source water and hazards most frequently cited included groundwater (67%) and chemical water hazards (82%). Most HHRAs (86%) applied deterministic methods with 14% reporting probabilistic and stochastic methods. Publications increased over time with 57% set in Asia, and 47% of studies identified at least one literature gap in the areas of research, risk management, and community exposure. HHRAs applied to rural populations dependent on unregulated water are poorly represented in the literature even though almost half of the global population is rural. PMID:28788087

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

2012-01-01

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

[Global Adult Tobacco Survey in Poland--the aim and current experiences].

PubMed

Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

2009-01-01

Poland is one of the countries, where smoking is widely spread and smoking-induced diseases have become a significant health and socio-economic issue. Since 1999, the World Health Organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in cooperation with partner organizations have been working on the implementation of the global control system known as the Global Tobacco Surveillance System (GTSS). This system expands the opportunities of individual countries in the area of designing, implementing and evaluating comprehensive anti-tobacco programs. The Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) has been incorporated into the GTSS system in 2007. The aim of the work is to explain and promote the objectives of GATS and the process of its implementation in Poland based on current experiences of the WHO Country Office for Poland. GATS concentrates on monitoring of tobacco use by adults (aged over 15 years). It is a representative, national survey of households, standardized on a global scale. GATS is supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies as a part of the Bloomberg Global Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use. Two executive agencies, the M. Skłodowska-Curie Institute of Oncology, Warsaw and the Warsaw Medical University, have been assigned to implement the Global Adult Tobacco Survey in Poland. The prepatory works for pre-testing and further stages of the survey implementation are currently under the final phase. Data gathered by GATS will enable us to learn more about the use of tobacco by the adult population in Poland. They will also indicate the most effective methods of the tobacco control in our country.

To Go Forward, We Must Look Back: The Importance of Evolutionary Psychology for Understanding Modern Politics.

PubMed

McDermott, Rose; Hatemi, Peter K

2018-01-01

As new waves of populism arise and cause disruption around the globe, there is both great interest in attempting to explain the origin of this dynamic as well as a need to ameliorate its potentially destructive impact. Perhaps the greatest signal of seismic change is the global dismantling of American institutional control of the postwar world following the election of Donald Trump in the United States. In the wake of such dramatic changes, it may seem odd to turn to evolutionary psychology which looks deeply into the past to try to understand current events, but, in fact, modern technology has dramatically changed the shape of political communication in just such a way as to make politics more personal once again, increasing the need to understand and interpret modern politics through an evolutionary lens. In fact, current modern political turmoils demonstrate how important evolutionary themes are and how critical they remain to understand how current forms of populism tape into older tribal sentiments and drives. Modern technology allows for a form of interpretative politics that no longer need to be mediated by political institutions or larger social structures, including enduring ones such as marriage. Indeed, in any ways, as we have technologically advanced, we have also regressed to more immediate, emotional, and personal forms of political communication. And it is only in understanding the nature of that personal political psychology that we can begin to grapple seriously with the challenges of today, including the consequences of global populism.

Recent introduction of a chytrid fungus endangers Western Palearctic salamanders

PubMed Central

Martel, A.; Beukema, W.; Fisher, M. C.; Farrer, R. A.; Schmidt, B. R.; Tobler, U.; Goka, K.; Lips, K. R.; Muletz, C.; Zamudio, K. R.; Bosch, J.; Lötters, S.; Wombwell, E.; Garner, T.W. J.; Cunningham, A. A.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, A.; Salvidio, S.; Ducatelle, R.; Nishikawa, K.; Nguyen, T. T.; Kolby, J. E.; Van Bocxlaer, I.; Bossuyt, F.; Pasmans, F.

2018-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases are reducing biodiversity on a global scale. Recently, the emergence of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans resulted in rapid declines in populations of European fire salamanders. Here, we screened more than 5000 amphibians from across four continents and combined experimental assessment of pathogenicity with phylogenetic methods to estimate the threat that this infection poses to amphibian diversity. Results show that B. salamandrivorans is restricted to, but highly pathogenic for, salamanders and newts (Urodela). The pathogen likely originated and remained in coexistence with a clade of salamander hosts for millions of years in Asia. As a result of globalization and lack of biosecurity, it has recently been introduced into naïve European amphibian populations, where it is currently causing biodiversity loss. PMID:25359973

Melanoma: a global perspective.

PubMed

Ossio, Raul; Roldán-Marín, Rodrigo; Martínez-Said, Héctor; Adams, David J; Robles-Espinoza, Carla Daniela

2017-07-01

Most of our current knowledge of melanoma is derived from the study of patients from populations of European descent, for whom public health, sun protection initiatives and screening measures have appreciably decreased disease mortality. Notably, some melanoma subtypes that most commonly develop in other populations are not associated with exposure to ultraviolet (UV) light, suggesting a different disease aetiology. Further study of these subtypes is necessary to understand their risk factors and genomic architecture, and to tailor therapies and public health campaigns to benefit patients of all ethnic groups.

A Novel Hybrid Firefly Algorithm for Global Optimization.

PubMed

Zhang, Lina; Liu, Liqiang; Yang, Xin-She; Dai, Yuntao

Global optimization is challenging to solve due to its nonlinearity and multimodality. Traditional algorithms such as the gradient-based methods often struggle to deal with such problems and one of the current trends is to use metaheuristic algorithms. In this paper, a novel hybrid population-based global optimization algorithm, called hybrid firefly algorithm (HFA), is proposed by combining the advantages of both the firefly algorithm (FA) and differential evolution (DE). FA and DE are executed in parallel to promote information sharing among the population and thus enhance searching efficiency. In order to evaluate the performance and efficiency of the proposed algorithm, a diverse set of selected benchmark functions are employed and these functions fall into two groups: unimodal and multimodal. The experimental results show better performance of the proposed algorithm compared to the original version of the firefly algorithm (FA), differential evolution (DE) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in the sense of avoiding local minima and increasing the convergence rate.

A Novel Hybrid Firefly Algorithm for Global Optimization

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lina; Liu, Liqiang; Yang, Xin-She; Dai, Yuntao

2016-01-01

Global optimization is challenging to solve due to its nonlinearity and multimodality. Traditional algorithms such as the gradient-based methods often struggle to deal with such problems and one of the current trends is to use metaheuristic algorithms. In this paper, a novel hybrid population-based global optimization algorithm, called hybrid firefly algorithm (HFA), is proposed by combining the advantages of both the firefly algorithm (FA) and differential evolution (DE). FA and DE are executed in parallel to promote information sharing among the population and thus enhance searching efficiency. In order to evaluate the performance and efficiency of the proposed algorithm, a diverse set of selected benchmark functions are employed and these functions fall into two groups: unimodal and multimodal. The experimental results show better performance of the proposed algorithm compared to the original version of the firefly algorithm (FA), differential evolution (DE) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in the sense of avoiding local minima and increasing the convergence rate. PMID:27685869

An emerging epidemic: cancer and heart failure.

PubMed

Thavendiranathan, Paaladinesh; Nolan, Mark T

2017-01-01

Heart disease and cancer are the two leading causes of mortality globally. Cardiovascular complications of cancer therapy significantly contribute to the global burden of cardiovascular disease. Heart failure (HF) in particular is a relatively common and life-threatening complication. The increased risk is driven by the shared risk factors for cancer and HF, the direct impact of cancer therapy on the heart, an existing care gap in the cardiac care of patients with cancer and the increasing population of adult cancer survivors. The clear relationship between cancer treatment initiation and the potential for myocardial injury makes this population attractive for prevention strategies, targeted cardiovascular monitoring and treatment. However, there is currently no consensus on the optimal strategy for managing this at-risk population. Uniform treatment using cardioprotective medications may reduce the incidence of HF, but would impose frequently unnecessary and burdensome side effects. Ideally we could use validated risk-prediction models to target HF-preventive strategies, but currently no such models exist. In the present review, we focus on evidence and rationales for contemporary clinical decision-making in this novel field and discuss issues, including the burden of HF in patients with cancer, the reasons for the elevated risk and potential prevention strategies. © 2016 The Author(s). published by Portland Press Limited on behalf of the Biochemical Society.

Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity.

PubMed

Tatem, Andrew J; Guerra, Carlos A; Kabaria, Caroline W; Noor, Abdisalan M; Hay, Simon I

2008-10-27

The efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately. First, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs) for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database. Masks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed significant differences between author-defined 'urban' and 'rural' designations in Africa, but not for the remainder of the malaria endemic world. The Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) urban extent mask proved most accurate for mapping these author-defined rural and urban locations, and further sub-divisions of urban extents into urban and peri-urban classes enabled the effects of high population densities on malaria transmission to be mapped and quantified. The availability of detailed, contemporary census and urban extent data for the construction of coherent and accurate global spatial population databases is often poor. These known sources of uncertainty in population surfaces and urban maps have the potential to be incorporated into future malaria burden estimates. Currently, insufficient spatial information exists globally to identify areas accurately where population density is low enough to impact upon transmission. Medical intelligence does however exist to reliably identify malaria free cities. Moreover, in Africa, urban areas that have a significant effect on malaria transmission can be mapped.

The violence of poverty victimizes children.

PubMed

Jailer, T

1999-01-01

While war, torture, and sexual violence threaten children's health, poverty is the most dangerous and widespread threat to children. However, while societies may react strongly to the most apparent forms and instances of violence against children, they fail to take the measures needed to effectively reduce the prevailing levels of poverty afflicting the world's children. For example, in 1998, the global starvation rate among children reached its 600-year peak; in Africa, 15% of children die before reaching age 5 years; and 200 million children under age 5 years are malnourished, with half of all deaths in that age group due to malnutrition. Lack of water, clothing, shelter, food, or medicine causes about 16.5 million deaths annually. Furthermore, current global military spending has reached $781 billion/year, more than the total income of the poorest 45% of the global population, while current annual world spending on education is only $80 billion. The world is becoming an increasingly hostile place for most people, but especially for children. Yet, as global economic and political conditions increasingly endanger children and their families, young people seem to be noticed only as certain kinds of problems.

Modelling the impacts of global change on concentrations of Escherichia coli in an urban river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalliffier-Verne, Isabelle; Leconte, Robert; Huaringa-Alvarez, Uriel; Heniche, Mourad; Madoux-Humery, Anne-Sophie; Autixier, Laurène; Galarneau, Martine; Servais, Pierre; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

2017-10-01

Discharges of combined sewer system overflows (CSOs) affect water quality in drinking water sources despite increasing regulation and discharge restrictions. A hydrodynamic model was applied to simulate the transport and dispersion of fecal contaminants from CSO discharges and to quantify the impacts of climate and population changes on the water quality of the river used as a drinking water source in Québec, Canada. The dispersion model was used to quantify Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations at drinking water intakes. Extreme flows during high and low water events were based on a frequency analysis in current and future climate scenarios. The increase of the number of discharges was quantified in current and future climate scenarios with regards to the frequency of overflows observed between 2009 and 2012. For future climate scenarios, effects of an increase of population were estimated according to current population growth statistics, independently of local changes in precipitation that are more difficult to predict than changes to regional scale hydrology. Under ;business-as-usual; scenarios restricting increases in CSO discharge frequency, mean E. coli concentrations at downstream drinking water intakes are expected to increase by up to 87% depending on the future climate scenario and could lead to changes in drinking water treatment requirements for the worst case scenarios. The greatest uncertainties are related to future local discharge loads. Climate change adaptation with regards to drinking water quality must focus on characterizing the impacts of global change at a local scale. Source water protection planning must consider the impacts of climate and population change to avoid further degradation of water quality.

Students with Disabilities' Perspectives of STEM Content and Careers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Kimberly E. Bryant

2014-01-01

The current global economy has led to an increase in the need for workers in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Underrepresented populations, such as students with disabilities, are being considered as one way meet the STEM workforce shortages. In order to increase students' participation in STEM careers, it…

Development of the Long-Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) Network: Current status and future trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term research conducted at multiple scales is critical to assessing the effects of key long term drivers (e.g., global population growth; land-use change; increased competition for natural resources; climate variability and change) on our ability to sustain or enhance agricultural production to...

World of Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McHale, Magda Cordell; And Others

1979-01-01

This bulletin takes a broad view of children in history, their current problems and needs throughout the world, and directions to be taken for fulfilling those needs. The world population of children under age 15 is projected to increase by 500 million to 1.9 billion in the year 2000. Despite the bonds created by global communications, large…

Access to Global Learning: A Matter of Will

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Hook, Steven R.

2006-01-01

Governments and individuals are increasingly turning to education to provide a deeper understanding of the world at large. However, with only 17 percent of the world's population able to advance beyond secondary education levels, new technologies and learning models are called upon to fulfill the need. Current developments in computer versatility,…

Proactive conservation management of an island-endemic bird species in the face of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, S.A.; Sillett, T. Scott; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Fitzpatrick, J.W.; Graber, D.M.; Bakker, V.J.; Bowman, R.; Collins, C.T.; Collins, P.W.; Delaney, K.S.; Doak, D.F.; Koenig, Walter D.; Laughrin, L.; Lieberman, A.A.; Marzluff, J.M.; Reynolds, M.D.; Scott, J.M.; Stallcup, J.A.; Vickers, W.; Boyce, W.M.

2011-01-01

Biodiversity conservation in an era of global change and scarce funding benefits from approaches that simultaneously solve multiple problems. Here, we discuss conservation management of the island scrub-jay (Aphelocoma insularis), the only island-endemic passerine species in the continental United States, which is currently restricted to 250-square-kilometer Santa Cruz Island, California. Although the species is not listed as threatened by state or federal agencies, its viability is nonetheless threatened on multiple fronts. We discuss management actions that could reduce extinction risk, including vaccination, captive propagation, biosecurity measures, and establishing a second free-living population on a neighboring island. Establishing a second population on Santa Rosa Island may have the added benefit of accelerating the restoration and enhancing the resilience of that island's currently highly degraded ecosystem. The proactive management framework for island scrub-jays presented here illustrates how strategies for species protection, ecosystem restoration, and adaptation to and mitigation of climate change can converge into an integrated solution. ?? 2011 by American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved.

An analysis of the global pharmacy workforce capacity.

PubMed

Bates, Ian; John, Christopher; Bruno, Andreia; Fu, Pamela; Aliabadi, Shirin

2016-10-10

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there is a global healthcare workforce shortage of 7.2 million, which is predicted to grow to 12.9 million by 2035. Globally, people are living longer with multiple co-morbidities and require increased access and use of medicines. Pharmacists are a key component of the healthcare workforce, and in many countries, pharmacists are the most accessible healthcare profession. This paper identifies key issues and current trends affecting the global pharmacy workforce, in particular workforce distribution, country economic status, capacity, and workforce gender balance. National professional pharmacy leadership bodies, together with other contacts for professional bodies, regulatory bodies, and universities, were approached to provide country-level data on pharmacy workforce. A descriptive and comparative analysis was conducted to assess each country's pharmacy workforce. A total of 89 countries and territories responded to the survey. To standardise the capacity measure, an analysis of the population density of pharmacists (per 10 000 population) was performed. The sample mean was 6 pharmacists per 10 000 population (n = 80). There is considerable variation between the surveyed countries/territories ranging from 0.02 (Somalia) to 25.07 (Malta) pharmacists per 10 000 population. African nations have significantly fewer pharmacists per capita. Pharmacist density correlates with gross national income (GNI) and health expenditure. The majority of pharmacists are employed in community settings, followed by hospital, industry-related, academia, and regulation. There is a greater proportion of females in the pharmacy workforce globally, with some WHO regions showing female representation of more than 65 % with an increasing trend trajectory. Pharmacy workforce capacity varies considerably between countries and regions and generally correlates with population- and country-level economic indicators. Those countries and territories with lower economic indicators tend to have fewer pharmacists and pharmacy technicians; this has implications for inequalities regarding access to medicines and medicine expertise.

Responding to the global economic crisis: inclusive social work practice.

PubMed

Strier, Ron

2013-10-01

The present global economic crisis raises new concerns for social workers. One of its most visible results is the further socioeconomic decline and marginalization of excluded populations. This article suggests that the current circumstances require a much more engaged, egalitarian, and reflexive practice-a practice, based on social rights, that matches the magnitude of the crisis and its negative impact on traditional social work constituencies. Consequently, the article suggests the concept of inclusive social work practice (ISWP), a conceptual framework whose main principles respond to four processes of social exclusion closely related to the present global crisis: extreme social isolation, growing dependency, multiple deprivation, and internalized oppression. The author describes the impact of the global crisis on patterns of social exclusion and presents the methodological foundations of the ISWP framework.

Global population-specific variation in miRNA associated with cancer risk and clinical biomarkers.

PubMed

Rawlings-Goss, Renata A; Campbell, Michael C; Tishkoff, Sarah A

2014-08-28

MiRNA expression profiling is being actively investigated as a clinical biomarker and diagnostic tool to detect multiple cancer types and stages as well as other complex diseases. Initial investigations, however, have not comprehensively taken into account genetic variability affecting miRNA expression and/or function in populations of different ethnic backgrounds. Therefore, more complete surveys of miRNA genetic variability are needed to assess global patterns of miRNA variation within and between diverse human populations and their effect on clinically relevant miRNA genes. Genetic variation in 1524 miRNA genes was examined using whole genome sequencing (60x coverage) in a panel of 69 unrelated individuals from 14 global populations, including European, Asian and African populations. We identified 33 previously undescribed miRNA variants, and 31 miRNA containing variants that are globally population-differentiated in frequency between African and non-African populations (PD-miRNA). The top 1% of PD-miRNA were significantly enriched for regulation of genes involved in glucose/insulin metabolism and cell division (p < 10(-7)), most significantly the mitosis pathway, which is strongly linked to cancer onset. Overall, we identify 7 PD-miRNAs that are currently implicated as cancer biomarkers or diagnostics: hsa-mir-202, hsa-mir-423, hsa-mir-196a-2, hsa-mir-520h, hsa-mir-647, hsa-mir-943, and hsa-mir-1908. Notably, hsa-mir-202, a potential breast cancer biomarker, was found to show significantly high allele frequency differentiation at SNP rs12355840, which is known to affect miRNA expression levels in vivo and subsequently breast cancer mortality. MiRNA expression profiles represent a promising new category of disease biomarkers. However, population specific genetic variation can affect the prevalence and baseline expression of these miRNAs in diverse populations. Consequently, miRNA genetic and expression level variation among ethnic groups may be contributing in part to health disparities observed in multiple forms of cancer, specifically breast cancer, and will be an essential consideration when assessing the utility of miRNA biomarkers for the clinic.

Restricted genetic variation in populations of Achatina (Lissachatina) fulica outside of East Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands points to the Indian Ocean Islands as the earliest known common source.

PubMed

Fontanilla, Ian Kendrich C; Sta Maria, Inna Mikaella P; Garcia, James Rainier M; Ghate, Hemant; Naggs, Fred; Wade, Christopher M

2014-01-01

The Giant African Land Snail, Achatina ( =  Lissachatina) fulica Bowdich, 1822, is a tropical crop pest species with a widespread distribution across East Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, the Pacific, the Caribbean, and North and South America. Its current distribution is attributed primarily to the introduction of the snail to new areas by Man within the last 200 years. This study determined the extent of genetic diversity in global A. fulica populations using the mitochondrial 16S ribosomal RNA gene. A total of 560 individuals were evaluated from 39 global populations obtained from 26 territories. Results reveal 18 distinct A. fulica haplotypes; 14 are found in East Africa and the Indian Ocean islands, but only two haplotypes from the Indian Ocean islands emerged from this region, the C haplotype, now distributed across the tropics, and the D haplotype in Ecuador and Bolivia. Haplotype E from the Philippines, F from New Caledonia and Barbados, O from India and Q from Ecuador are variants of the emergent C haplotype. For the non-native populations, the lack of genetic variation points to founder effects due to the lack of multiple introductions from the native range. Our current data could only point with certainty to the Indian Ocean islands as the earliest known common source of A. fulica across the globe, which necessitates further sampling in East Africa to determine the source populations of the emergent haplotypes.

Restricted Genetic Variation in Populations of Achatina (Lissachatina) fulica outside of East Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands Points to the Indian Ocean Islands as the Earliest Known Common Source

PubMed Central

Fontanilla, Ian Kendrich C.; Sta. Maria, Inna Mikaella P.; Garcia, James Rainier M.; Ghate, Hemant; Naggs, Fred; Wade, Christopher M.

2014-01-01

The Giant African Land Snail, Achatina ( = Lissachatina) fulica Bowdich, 1822, is a tropical crop pest species with a widespread distribution across East Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, the Pacific, the Caribbean, and North and South America. Its current distribution is attributed primarily to the introduction of the snail to new areas by Man within the last 200 years. This study determined the extent of genetic diversity in global A. fulica populations using the mitochondrial 16S ribosomal RNA gene. A total of 560 individuals were evaluated from 39 global populations obtained from 26 territories. Results reveal 18 distinct A. fulica haplotypes; 14 are found in East Africa and the Indian Ocean islands, but only two haplotypes from the Indian Ocean islands emerged from this region, the C haplotype, now distributed across the tropics, and the D haplotype in Ecuador and Bolivia. Haplotype E from the Philippines, F from New Caledonia and Barbados, O from India and Q from Ecuador are variants of the emergent C haplotype. For the non-native populations, the lack of genetic variation points to founder effects due to the lack of multiple introductions from the native range. Our current data could only point with certainty to the Indian Ocean islands as the earliest known common source of A. fulica across the globe, which necessitates further sampling in East Africa to determine the source populations of the emergent haplotypes. PMID:25203830

Projections for Achieving the Lancet Commission Recommended Surgical Rate of 5000 Operations per 100,000 Population by Region-Specific Surgical Rate Estimates.

PubMed

Uribe-Leitz, Tarsicio; Esquivel, Micaela M; Molina, George; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Verguet, Stéphane; Rose, John; Bickler, Stephen W; Gawande, Atul A; Haynes, Alex B; Weiser, Thomas G

2015-09-01

We previously identified a range of 4344-5028 annual operations per 100,000 people to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 people. We evaluate rates of growth and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. We aggregated country-level surgical rate estimates from 2004 to 2012 into the twenty-one Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size for each year and assessed the rate of growth over time. We then extrapolated the time it will take each region to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 population based on linear rates of change. All but two regions experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years. Fourteen regions did not meet the recommended threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity continues to grow at current rates, seven regions will not meet the threshold by 2035. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the recommended threshold until 2124. The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable. At current rates of surgical and population growth, 6.2 billion people (73% of the world's population) will be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgical care in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met in a timely fashion as part of the integrated health system development.

Economic downturns and population mental health: research findings, gaps, challenges and priorities

PubMed Central

Zivin, K.; Paczkowski, M.; Galea, S.

2013-01-01

Prior research suggests that the current global economic crisis may be negatively affecting population mental health. In that context, this paper has several goals: (1) to discuss theoretical and conceptual explanations for how and why economic downturns might negatively affect population mental health; (2) present an overview of the literature on the relationship between economic recessions and population mental health; (3) discuss the limitations of existing empirical work; and (4) highlight opportunities for improvements in both research and practice designed to mitigate any negative impact of economic declines on the mental health of populations. Research has consistently demonstrated that economic crises are negatively associated with population mental health. How economic downturns influence mental health should be considered in policies such as social protection programs that aim to promote recovery. PMID:20836907

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on a number of target regions. We demonstrate the use of impact models in these regions based on global GDP, population, and land use maps. In this application, we show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input datasets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish distributed estimates of GDP and asset exposure to flooding.

The Story of a Hitchhiker: Population Genetic Patterns in the Invasive Barnacle Balanus(Amphibalanus) improvisus Darwin 1854

PubMed Central

Wrange, Anna-Lisa; Charrier, Gregory; Thonig, Anne; Alm Rosenblad, Magnus; Blomberg, Anders; Havenhand, Jonathan N.; Jonsson, Per R.; André, Carl

2016-01-01

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary forces that determine the genetic structure and spread of invasive species is a key component of invasion biology. The bay barnacle, Balanus improvisus (= Amphibalanus improvisus), is one of the most successful aquatic invaders worldwide, and is characterised by broad environmental tolerance. Although the species can spread through natural larval dispersal, human-mediated transport through (primarily) shipping has almost certainly contributed to the current global distribution of this species. Despite its worldwide distribution, little is known about the phylogeography of this species. Here, we characterize the population genetic structure and model dispersal dynamics of the barnacle B. improvisus, and describe how human-mediated spreading via shipping as well as natural larval dispersal may have contributed to observed genetic variation. We used both mitochondrial DNA (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I: COI) and nuclear microsatellites to characterize the genetic structure in 14 populations of B. improvisus on a global and regional scale (Baltic Sea). Genetic diversity was high in most populations, and many haplotypes were shared among populations on a global scale, indicating that long-distance dispersal (presumably through shipping and other anthropogenic activities) has played an important role in shaping the population genetic structure of this cosmopolitan species. We could not clearly confirm prior claims that B. improvisus originates from the western margins of the Atlantic coasts; although there were indications that Argentina could be part of a native region. In addition to dispersal via shipping, we show that natural larval dispersal may play an important role for further colonisation following initial introduction. PMID:26821161

Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems

PubMed Central

Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Brook, Barry W.

2014-01-01

The inexorable demographic momentum of the global human population is rapidly eroding Earth’s life-support system. There are consequently more frequent calls to address environmental problems by advocating further reductions in human fertility. To examine how quickly this could lead to a smaller human population, we used scenario-based matrix modeling to project the global population to the year 2100. Assuming a continuation of current trends in mortality reduction, even a rapid transition to a worldwide one-child policy leads to a population similar to today’s by 2100. Even a catastrophic mass mortality event of 2 billion deaths over a hypothetical 5-y window in the mid-21st century would still yield around 8.5 billion people by 2100. In the absence of catastrophe or large fertility reductions (to fewer than two children per female worldwide), the greatest threats to ecosystems—as measured by regional projections within the 35 global Biodiversity Hotspots—indicate that Africa and South Asia will experience the greatest human pressures on future ecosystems. Humanity’s large demographic momentum means that there are no easy policy levers to change the size of the human population substantially over coming decades, short of extreme and rapid reductions in female fertility; it will take centuries, and the long-term target remains unclear. However, some reduction could be achieved by midcentury and lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed. More immediate results for sustainability would emerge from policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources. PMID:25349398

Evidence of discrete yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations demands rethink of management for this globally important resource.

PubMed

Grewe, P M; Feutry, P; Hill, P L; Gunasekera, R M; Schaefer, K M; Itano, D G; Fuller, D W; Foster, S D; Davies, C R

2015-11-23

Tropical tuna fisheries are central to food security and economic development of many regions of the world. Contemporary population assessment and management generally assume these fisheries exploit a single mixed spawning population, within ocean basins. To date population genetics has lacked the required power to conclusively test this assumption. Here we demonstrate heterogeneous population structure among yellowfin tuna sampled at three locations across the Pacific Ocean (western, central, and eastern) via analysis of double digest restriction-site associated DNA using Next Generation Sequencing technology. The differences among locations are such that individuals sampled from one of the three regions examined can be assigned with close to 100% accuracy demonstrating the power of this approach for providing practical markers for fishery independent verification of catch provenance in a way not achieved by previous techniques. Given these results, an extended pan-tropical survey of yellowfin tuna using this approach will not only help combat the largest threat to sustainable fisheries (i.e. illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing) but will also provide a basis to transform current monitoring, assessment, and management approaches for this globally significant species.

Evidence of discrete yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations demands rethink of management for this globally important resource

PubMed Central

Grewe, P. M.; Feutry, P.; Hill, P. L.; Gunasekera, R. M.; Schaefer, K. M.; Itano, D. G.; Fuller, D. W.; Foster, S. D.; Davies, C. R.

2015-01-01

Tropical tuna fisheries are central to food security and economic development of many regions of the world. Contemporary population assessment and management generally assume these fisheries exploit a single mixed spawning population, within ocean basins. To date population genetics has lacked the required power to conclusively test this assumption. Here we demonstrate heterogeneous population structure among yellowfin tuna sampled at three locations across the Pacific Ocean (western, central, and eastern) via analysis of double digest restriction-site associated DNA using Next Generation Sequencing technology. The differences among locations are such that individuals sampled from one of the three regions examined can be assigned with close to 100% accuracy demonstrating the power of this approach for providing practical markers for fishery independent verification of catch provenance in a way not achieved by previous techniques. Given these results, an extended pan-tropical survey of yellowfin tuna using this approach will not only help combat the largest threat to sustainable fisheries (i.e. illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing) but will also provide a basis to transform current monitoring, assessment, and management approaches for this globally significant species. PMID:26593698

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

2014-01-01

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

2012-12-01

Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

Global Genetics and Invasion History of the Potato Powdery Scab Pathogen, Spongospora subterranea f.sp. subterranea

PubMed Central

Gau, Rebecca D.; Merz, Ueli; Falloon, Richard E.; Brunner, Patrick C.

2013-01-01

Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea (Sss) causes two diseases on potato (Solanum tuberosum), lesions on tubers and galls on roots, which are economically important worldwide. Knowledge of global genetic diversity and population structure of pathogens is essential for disease management including resistance breeding. A combination of microsatellite and DNA sequence data was used to investigate the structure and invasion history of Sss. South American populations (four countries, 132 samples) were consistently more diverse than those from all other regions (15 countries, 566 samples), in agreement with the hypothesis that Sss originated in South America where potato was domesticated. A substantial genetic differenciation was found between root and tuber-derived samples from South America. Estimates of past and recent gene flow suggested that Sss was probably introduced from South America into Europe. Subsequently, Europe is likely to have been the recent source of migrants of the pathogen, acting as a “bridgehead” for further global dissemination. Quarantine measures must continue to be focussed on maintaining low global genetic diversity and avoiding exchange of genetic material between the native and introduced regions. Nevertheless, the current low global genetic diversity of Sss allows potato breeders to select for resistance, which is likely to be durable. PMID:23840791

Population structure of Helicobacter pylori among ethnic groups in Malaysia: recent acquisition of the bacterium by the Malay population

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Helicobacter pylori is a major gastric bacterial pathogen. This pathogen has been shown to follow the routes of human migration by their geographical origin and currently the global H. pylori population has been divided into six ancestral populations, three from Africa, two from Asia and one from Europe. Malaysia is made up of three major ethnic populations, Malay, Chinese and Indian, providing a good population for studying recent H. pylori migration and admixture. Results Seventy eight H. pylori isolates, including 27 Chinese, 35 Indian and 16 Malay isolates from Malaysia were analysed by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of seven housekeeping genes and compared with the global MLST data. STRUCTURE analysis assigned the isolates to previously identified H. pylori ancestral populations, hpEastAsia, hpAsia2 and hpEurope, and revealed a new subpopulation, hspIndia, within hpAsia2. Statistical analysis allowed us to identify population segregation sites that divide the H. pylori populations and the subpopulations. The majority of Malay isolates were found to be grouped together with Indian isolates. Conclusion The majority of the Malay and Indian H. pylori isolates share the same origin while the Malaysian Chinese H. pylori is distinctive. The Malay population, known to have a low infection rate of H. pylori, was likely to be initially H. pylori free and gained the pathogen only recently from cross infection from other populations. PMID:19538757

One ring to rule them all: storm time ring current and its influence on radiation belts, plasmasphere and global magnetosphere electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzulukova, Natalia; Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Moore, Thomas E.

2013-04-01

We report studies of the storm time ring current and its influence on the radiation belts, plasmasphere and global magnetospheric dynamics. The near-Earth space environment is described by multiscale physics that reflects a variety of processes and conditions that occur in magnetospheric plasma. For a successful description of such a plasma, a complex solution is needed which allows multiple physics domains to be described using multiple physical models. A key population of the inner magnetosphere is ring current plasma. Ring current dynamics affects magnetic and electric fields in the entire magnetosphere, the distribution of cold ionospheric plasma (plasmasphere), and radiation belts particles. To study electrodynamics of the inner magnetosphere, we present a MHD model (BATSRUS code) coupled with ionospheric solver for electric field and with ring current-radiation belt model (CIMI code). The model will be used as a tool to reveal details of coupling between different regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. A model validation will be also presented based on comparison with data from THEMIS, POLAR, GOES, and TWINS missions. INVITED TALK

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Marano, K.D.; Hotovec, A.J.; Lin, K.; Hearne, M.G.

2009-01-01

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ eqcenter/pager/prodandref/ ). ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Population Health Management for Older Adults

PubMed Central

Tkatch, Rifky; Musich, Shirley; MacLeod, Stephanie; Alsgaard, Kathleen; Hawkins, Kevin; Yeh, Charlotte S.

2016-01-01

Background: The older adult population is expanding, living longer, with multiple chronic conditions. Understanding and managing their needs over time is an integral part of defining successful aging. Population health is used to describe the measurement and health outcomes of a population. Objectives: To define population health as applied to older adults, summarize lessons learned from current research, and identify potential interventions designed to promote successful aging and improved health for this population. Method: Online search engines were utilized to identify research on population health and health interventions for older adults. Results: Population health management (PHM) is one strategy to promote the health and well-being of target populations. Interventions promoting health across a continuum tend to be disease, risk, or health behavior specific rather than encompassing a global concept of health. Conclusion: Many existing interventions for older adults are simply research based with limited generalizability; as such, further work in this area is warranted. PMID:28680938

A Novel Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Global Optimization

PubMed Central

Wang, Chun-Feng; Liu, Kui

2016-01-01

Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a recently developed optimization method, which has attracted interest of researchers in various areas due to its simplicity and effectiveness, and many variants have been proposed. In this paper, a novel Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is presented, in which the information of the best neighbor of each particle and the best particle of the entire population in the current iteration is considered. Meanwhile, to avoid premature, an abandoned mechanism is used. Furthermore, for improving the global convergence speed of our algorithm, a chaotic search is adopted in the best solution of the current iteration. To verify the performance of our algorithm, standard test functions have been employed. The experimental results show that the algorithm is much more robust and efficient than some existing Particle Swarm Optimization algorithms. PMID:26955387

Seafood traceability: current needs, available tools, and biotechnological challenges for origin certification.

PubMed

Leal, Miguel Costa; Pimentel, Tânia; Ricardo, Fernando; Rosa, Rui; Calado, Ricardo

2015-06-01

Market globalization and recurring food safety alerts have resulted in a growing consumer awareness of the need for food traceability. This is particularly relevant for seafood due to its perishable nature and importance as a key protein source for the population of the world. Here, we provide an overview of the current needs for seafood origin traceability, along with the limitations and challenges for its implementation. We focus on geochemical, biochemical, and molecular tools and how they should be optimized to be implemented globally and to address our societal needs. We suggest that seafood traceability is key to enforcing food safety regulations and fisheries control, combat fraud, and fulfill present and future expectations of conscientious producers, consumers, and authorities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scientific Challenges in Sustainable Energy Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Nathan

2006-03-01

This presentation will describe and evaluate the challenges, both technical, political, and economic, involved with widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies. First, we estimate the available fossil fuel resources and reserves based on data from the World Energy Assessment and World Energy Council. In conjunction with the current and projected global primary power production rates, we then estimate the remaining years of supply of oil, gas, and coal for use in primary power production. We then compare the price per unit of energy of these sources to those of renewable energy technologies (wind, solar thermal, solar electric, biomass, hydroelectric, and geothermal) to evaluate the degree to which supply/demand forces stimulate a transition to renewable energy technologies in the next 20-50 years. Secondly, we evaluate the greenhouse gas buildup limitations on carbon-based power consumption as an unpriced externality to fossil-fuel consumption, considering global population growth, increased global gross domestic product, and increased energy efficiency per unit of globally averaged GDP, as produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A greenhouse gas constraint on total carbon emissions, in conjunction with global population growth, is projected to drive the demand for carbon-free power well beyond that produced by conventional supply/demand pricing tradeoffs, at potentially daunting levels relative to current renewable energy demand levels. Thirdly, we evaluate the level and timescale of R&D investment that is needed to produce the required quantity of carbon-free power by the 2050 timeframe, to support the expected global energy demand for carbon-free power. Fourth, we evaluate the energy potential of various renewable energy resources to ascertain which resources are adequately available globally to support the projected global carbon-free energy demand requirements. Fifth, we evaluate the challenges to the chemical sciences to enable the cost-effective production of carbon-free power on the needed scale by the 2050 timeframe. Finally, we discuss the effects of a change in primary power technology on the energy supply infrastructure and discuss the impact of such a change on the modes of energy consumption by the energy consumer and additional demands on the chemical sciences to support such a transition in energy supply.

Moderating diets to feed the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle F.; D'Odorico, Paolo; Rulli, Maria Cristina

2014-10-01

Population growth, dietary changes, and increasing biofuel use are placing unprecedented pressure on the global food system. While this demand likely cannot be met by expanding agricultural lands, much of the world's cropland can attain higher crop yields. Therefore, it is important to examine whether increasing crop productivity to the maximum attainable yield (i.e., yield gap closure) alone can substantially improve food security at global and national scales. Here we show that closing yield gaps through conventional technological development (i.e., fertilizers and irrigation) can potentially meet future global demand if diets are moderated and crop-based biofuel production is limited. In particular, we find that increases in dietary demand will be largely to blame should crop production fall short of demand. In converting projected diets to a globally adequate diet (3000 kcal/cap/d; 20% animal kcal) under current agrofuel use, we find that 1.8-2.6 billion additional people can be fed in 2030 and 2.1-3.1 billion additional people in 2050, depending on the extent to which yields can improve in those periods. Therefore, the simple combination of yield gap closure and moderating diets offers promise for feeding the world's population but only if long-term sustainability is the focus.

A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of -0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

Food supply reliance on groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalin, Carole; Puma, Michael; Wada, Yoshihide; Kastner, Thomas

2016-04-01

Water resources, essential to sustain human life, livelihoods and ecosystems, are under increasing pressure from population growth, socio-economic development and global climate change. As the largest freshwater resource on Earth, groundwater is key for human development and food security. Yet, excessive abstraction of groundwater for irrigation, driven by an increasing demand for food in recent decades, is leading to fast exhaustion of groundwater reserves in major agricultural areas of the world. Some of the highest depletion rates are observed in Pakistan, India, California Central Valley and the North China Plain aquifers. In addition, the growing economy and population of several countries, such as India and China, makes prospects of future available water and food worrisome. In this context, it is becoming particularly challenging to sustainably feed the world population, without exhausting our water resources. Besides, food production and consumption across the globe have become increasingly interconnected, with many areas' agricultural production destined to remote consumers. In this globalisation era, trade is crucial to the world's food system. As a transfer of water-intensive goods, across regions with varying levels of water productivity, food trade can save significant volumes of water resources globally. This situation makes it essential to address the issue of groundwater overuse for global food supply, accounting for international food trade. To do so, we quantify the current, global use of non-renewable groundwater for major crops, accounting for various water productivity and trade flows. This will highlight areas requiring quickest attention, exposing major exporters and importers of non-renewable groundwater, and thus help explore solutions to improve the sustainability of global food supply.

Impact Craters on Mars: Natural 3D Exploration Probes of Geological Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garvin, James B.

2005-01-01

Introduction: The population of impact craters preserved on the surface of Mars offers fundamental constraints on the three- dimensional mechanical characteristics of the martian crust, its volatile abundance, and on the styles of erosion that have operated during essentially all epochs of martian geological history. On the basis of the present- day wealth of morphologic and geometric observations of impact landforms on Mars [ 1-31, an emerging understanding of the three-dimensional physical properties of the martian uppermost crust in space and time is at hand. In this summary, the current basis of understanding of the relatively non- degraded population of impact landforms on Mars is reviewed, and new Mars Global Surveyor (MGS)-based (MOLA) measurements of global geometric properties are summarized in the context of upcoming observations by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

A Survey on the Use of Mobile Applications for People Who Are Visually Impaired

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffin-Shirley, Nora; Banda, Devender R.; Ajuwon, Paul M.; Cheon, Jongpil; Lee, Jaehoon; Park, Hye Ran; Lyngdoh, Sanpalei N.

2017-01-01

Introduction: The literature indicates that few studies have been conducted with persons with visual impairments (that is, those who are blind or have low vision) concerning mobile application or "app" usage. The current study explores the use of mobile apps with this population globally. Methods: A total of 259 participants with visual…

A Query into the Quarter Century on the Interrelationships of Food, People, Environment, Land and Climate. Output Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ingraham, Elizabeth Wright

Scientists and educators examined long-term national and world trends related to the web of interrelationships involved in climate, food production, population, land use, and environmental quality. Current information and projections for the next quarter century were discussed. In reviewing scientific findings, it was noted that global weather…

Voluntary Midlife Career Change: Integrating the Transtheoretical Model and the Life-Span, Life-Space Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barclay, Susan R.; Stoltz, Kevin B.; Chung, Y. Barry

2011-01-01

Frequent career change is the predicted experience of workers in the global economy. Self initiating career changers are a substantial subset of the total population of career changers. There is currently a dearth of theory and research to help career counselors conceptualize the career change process for the application of appropriate…

Internet Therapy versus Internet Self-Help versus No Treatment for Problematic Alcohol Use: A Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blankers, Matthijs; Koeter, Maarten W. J.; Schippers, Gerard M.

2011-01-01

Objective: Problematic alcohol use is the third leading contributor to the global burden of disease, partly because the majority of problem drinkers are not receiving treatment. Internet-based alcohol interventions attract an otherwise untreated population, but their effectiveness has not yet been established. The current study examined the…

Developing Diverse Teams to Improve Performance in the Organizational Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeager, Katherine L.; Nafukho, Fredrick M.

2012-01-01

Purpose: The use of teams in organizations given the current trend toward globalization, population changes, and an aging workforce, especially in high-income countries, makes the issue of diverse team building critical. The purpose of this paper is to explore the issue of team diversity and team performance through the examination of theory and…

Dual Enrollment: An Integration Strategy for College Persistence and Achievement among First-Generation Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carey, Alisha Renee

2015-01-01

Educational and political leaders across the nation seek to create a more educated population in order to compete in a global technology-oriented society and to increase earning potential of workers. Colleges and universities are currently seeking ways to increase persistence and achievement in order to produce more college graduates. Georgia's…

Theory Meets Practice: HBCU Initiatives that Promote Academic Success among African Americans in STEM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Robert T.; Davis, Ryan J.; Thompson, Tiffany

2010-01-01

In the current postindustrial era, increasing the number of minorities in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is critically important for the United States' economic growth and its position in the global marketplace. Given the U.S. Census Bureau's 2008 projection that the population of minorities is expected to increase by…

Current Heavy Alcohol Consumption is Associated with Greater Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Woods, Adam J.; Porges, Eric C.; Bryant, Vaughn E.; Seider, Talia; Gongvatana, Assawin; Kahler, Christopher W.; de la Monte, Suzanne; Monti, Peter M.; Cohen, Ronald A.

2016-01-01

Background The acute consumption of excessive quantities of alcohol causes well-recognized neurophysiological and cognitive alterations. As people reach advanced age, they are more prone to cognitive decline. To date, the interaction of current heavy alcohol (ETOH) consumption and aging remain unclear. The current paper tested the hypothesis that negative consequences of current heavy alcohol consumption on neurocognitive function are worse with advanced age. Further, we evaluated the relations between lifetime history of alcohol dependence and neurocognitive function Methods Sixty-six participants underwent a comprehensive neurocognitive battery. Current heavy ETOH drinkers were classified using NIAAA criteria (ETOH Heavy, n = 21) based on the Timeline follow-back and a structured clinical interview and compared to non-drinkers, and moderate drinkers (ETOH Low, n = 45). Fifty-three-point-three percent of the total population had a lifetime history of alcohol dependence. Neurocognitive data were grouped and analyzed relative to global and domain scores assessing: global cognitive function, attention/executive function, learning, memory, motor function, verbal function, and speed of processing. Results Heavy current ETOH consumption in older adults was associated with poorer global cognitive function, learning, memory, and motor function (p’s<.05). Furthermore, lifetime history of alcohol dependence was associated with poorer function in the same neurocognitive domains, in addition to the attention/executive domain, irrespective of age (p’s<.05). Conclusions These data suggest that while heavy current alcohol consumption is associated with significant impairment in a number of neurocognitive domains, history of alcohol dependence, even in the absence of heavy current alcohol use, is associated with lasting negative consequences for neurocognitive function. PMID:27658235

Chronic widespread pain prevalence in the general population: A systematic review.

PubMed

Andrews, P; Steultjens, M; Riskowski, J

2018-01-01

Chronic widespread pain (CWP) is a significant burden in communities. Understanding the impact of population-dependent (e.g., age, gender) and contextual-dependent (e.g. survey method, region, inequality level) factors have on CWP prevalence may provide a foundation for population-based strategies to address CWP. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to estimate the global prevalence of CWP and evaluate the population and contextual factors associated with CWP. A systematic review of CWP prevalence studies (1990-2017) in the general population was undertaken. Meta-analyses were conducted to determine CWP prevalence, and study population data and contextual factors were evaluated using a meta-regression. Thirty-nine manuscripts met the inclusion criteria. Study CWP prevalence ranged from 1.4% to 24.0%, with CWP prevalence in men ranging from 0.8% to 15.3% and 1.7% to 22.1% in women. Estimated overall CWP prevalence was 9.6% (8.0-11.2%). Meta-regression analyses showed gender, United Nations country development status, and human development index (HDI) influenced CWP prevalence, while survey method, region, methodological and reporting quality, and inequality showed no significant effect on the CWP estimate. Globally CWP affects one in ten individuals within the general population, with women more likely to experience CWP than men. HDI was noted to be the socioeconomic factor related to CWP prevalence, with those in more developed countries having a lower CWP prevalence than those in less developed countries. Most CWP estimates were from developed countries, and CWP estimates from countries with a lower socioeconomic position is needed to further refine the global estimate of CWP. This systematic review and meta-analysis updates the current global CWP prevalence by examining the population-level (e.g. age, gender) and contextual (e.g. country development status; survey style; reporting and methodologic quality) factors associated with CWP prevalence. This analyses provides evidence to support higher levels of CWP in countries with a lower socioeconomic position relative to countries with a higher socioeconomic position. © 2017 European Pain Federation - EFIC®.

The impacts of climate change on the abundance and distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) in the United States and Canada

PubMed Central

Arteca, Ellen M.; Newman, Jonathan A.

2017-01-01

D. suzukii is a relatively recent and destructive pest species to the North American soft-skinned fruit industry. Understanding this species’ potential to shift in abundance and range due to changing climate is an important part of an effective mitigation and management strategy. We parameterized a temperature-driven D. suzukii population dynamics model using temperature data derived from several Global Circulation Models (CMIP5) with a range of relative concentration pathway (RCP) predictions. Mean consensus between the models suggest that without adaptation to both higher prolonged temperatures and higher short-term temperature events D. suzukii population levels are likely to drop in currently higher-risk regions. The potential drop in population is evident both as time progresses and as the severity of the RCP scenario increases. Some regions, particularly in northern latitudes, may experience increased populations due to milder winter and more developmentally-ideal summer conditions, but many of these regions are not currently known for soft-skinned fruit production and so the effects of this population increase may not have a significant impact. PMID:28396828

Reconstruction of two colonisation pathways of Mantis religiosa (Mantodea) in Germany using four mitochondrial markers.

PubMed

Linn, Catherine Anne; Griebeler, Eva Maria

2015-02-01

Past and recent climatic changes induced shifts in species ranges. Mantis religiosa has also expanded its range across Germany within the past decades. To determine the ancestry of German M. religiosa we sequenced four mitochondrial genes (COI, COII, Cyt b, ND4) of European M. religiosa populations. We found an east, central and west European lineage of M. religiosa. These distinct lineages are consistent with genetic isolation by distance during glacial periods, and the re-colonization of northern parts of Europe by species from different refugia. Within Germany, we found haplotypes clustering to the central and west European lineage suggesting that M. religiosa immigrated from two directions into Germany. Mismatch distributions, and negative Tajima's D and Fu's Fs values indicate a current range expansion of the central and west European lineage. We hypothesise that ongoing global warming which increases the availability of thermally favourable areas in Germany for M. religiosa adds to its current range expansion. In conclusion, M. religiosa colonized Germany via two directions: west German populations descended from French populations and east German populations from Czech populations.

Global elimination of leprosy by 2020: are we on track?

PubMed

Blok, David J; De Vlas, Sake J; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

2015-10-22

Every year more than 200,000 new leprosy cases are registered globally. This number has been fairly stable over the past 8 years. WHO has set a target to interrupt the transmission of leprosy globally by 2020. The aim of this study is to investigate whether this target, interpreted as global elimination, is feasible given the current control strategy. We focus on the three most important endemic countries, India, Brazil and Indonesia, which together account for more than 80 % of all newly registered leprosy cases. We used the existing individual-based model SIMCOLEP to predict future trends of leprosy incidence given the current control strategy in each country. SIMCOLEP simulates the spread of M. leprae in a population that is structured in households. Current control consists of passive and active case detection, and multidrug therapy (MDT). Predictions of leprosy incidence were made for each country as well as for one high-endemic region within each country: Chhattisgarh (India), Pará State (Brazil) and Madura (Indonesia). Data for model quantification came from: National Leprosy Elimination Program (India), SINAN database (Brazil), and Netherlands Leprosy Relief (Indonesia). Our projections of future leprosy incidence all show a downward trend. In 2020, the country-level leprosy incidence has decreased to 6.2, 6.1 and 3.3 per 100,000 in India, Brazil and Indonesia, respectively, meeting the elimination target of less than 10 per 100,000. However, elimination may not be achieved in time for the high-endemic regions. The leprosy incidence in 2020 is predicted to be 16.2, 21.1 and 19.3 per 100,000 in Chhattisgarh, Pará and Madura, respectively, and the target may only be achieved in another 5 to 10 years. Our predictions show that although country-level elimination is reached by 2020, leprosy is likely to remain a problem in the high-endemic regions (i.e. states, districts and provinces with multimillion populations), which account for most of the cases in a country.

Public Health Aspects of Global Population Health and Well-being in the 21st Century Regarding Determinants of Health.

PubMed

Masic, Izet

2018-01-01

Why did I recall the details about public health aspects of global population and well-being in the 21 st century regarding the determinants of health? Most of all because today, at the end of 2017, we are talking about the same principles from the "Declaration on Primary Health Care" from 1978, and the same goals as those in "Health for all" which are still current or perhaps even more current than when they were published for the first time in scientific and professional literature. This is a notorious fact, even though we are talking about "Global Health" and its determinants, in all countries of the world, regardless of their social wealth, and all existing resources, especially those, intended to organize health care. In the field of practice, public health has advanced in knowledge and methodology. Biomedical scientists have identified many causes of infectious diseases and developed methods to put them under control. Epidemiologists have identified risk factors that favor many chronic illnesses and information that can be used to reduce the risk of disease. Efforts to cleanse the environment have resulted in air and water that are far safer than half a century ago. Intensive educational efforts have convinced the health-care organizers to improve their health behavior that is to quit tobacco use, and a combination of drinking and driving. The ability to assess the populations' health behaviors and assess the share of health interventions has also significantly improved the availability of health-care databases and computer software capable of analyzing them. However, much of the targets from the World Health Organization declarations are not improved or in some countries provided by official institutions responsible for public health activities.

Translating the WHO 25×25 goals into a UK context: the PROMISE modelling study

PubMed Central

Cobiac, Linda J; Scarborough, Peter

2017-01-01

Objective Model the impact of targets for obesity, diabetes, raised blood pressure, tobacco use, salt intake, physical inactivity and harmful alcohol use, as outlined in the Global Non-Communicable Disease Action Plan 2013–2020, on mortality and morbidity in the UK population. Design Dynamic population modelling study. Setting UK population. Participants Not available. Main outcome measures Mortality and morbidity (years lived with disability) from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) that are averted or delayed. Probability of achieving a 25% reduction in premature mortality from NCDs by 2025 (current WHO target) and a 33% reduction by 2030 (proposed target). Results The largest improvements in mortality would be achieved by meeting the obesity target and the largest improvements in morbidity would be achieved by meeting the diabetes target. The UK could achieve the 2025 and 2030 targets for reducing premature mortality with only a little additional preventive effort compared with current practice. Achieving all 7 risk targets could avert a total of 300 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 250 000 to 350 000) and 1.3 million years lived with disability (1.2–1.4 million) from NCDs by 2025, with the majority of health gains due to reduced mortality and morbidity from heart disease and stroke, and reduced morbidity from diabetes. Potential reductions in morbidity from depression and in morbidity and mortality from dementia at older ages are also substantial. Conclusions The global premature mortality targets are a potentially achievable goal for countries such as the UK that can capitalise on many decades of effort in prevention and treatment. High morbidity diseases and diseases in later life are not addressed in the Global NCD Action Plan and targets, but must also be considered a priority for prevention in the UK where the population is ageing and the costs of health and social care are rising. PMID:28377390

Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake

PubMed Central

Cotté, Cédric; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

2016-01-01

It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. PMID:27555651

Ecophysiology of avian migration in the face of current global hazards

PubMed Central

Klaassen, Marcel; Hoye, Bethany J.; Nolet, Bart A.; Buttemer, William A.

2012-01-01

Long-distance migratory birds are often considered extreme athletes, possessing a range of traits that approach the physiological limits of vertebrate design. In addition, their movements must be carefully timed to ensure that they obtain resources of sufficient quantity and quality to satisfy their high-energy needs. Migratory birds may therefore be particularly vulnerable to global change processes that are projected to alter the quality and quantity of resource availability. Because long-distance flight requires high and sustained aerobic capacity, even minor decreases in vitality can have large negative consequences for migrants. In the light of this, we assess how current global change processes may affect the ability of birds to meet the physiological demands of migration, and suggest areas where avian physiologists may help to identify potential hazards. Predicting the consequences of global change scenarios on migrant species requires (i) reconciliation of empirical and theoretical studies of avian flight physiology; (ii) an understanding of the effects of food quality, toxicants and disease on migrant performance; and (iii) mechanistic models that integrate abiotic and biotic factors to predict migratory behaviour. Critically, a multi-dimensional concept of vitality would greatly facilitate evaluation of the impact of various global change processes on the population dynamics of migratory birds. PMID:22566678

Development of Group A streptococcal vaccines: an unmet global health need.

PubMed

Sheel, Meru; Moreland, Nicole J; Fraser, John D; Carapetis, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) infections are a significant global cause of morbidity and mortality. GAS diseases disproportionally affect those living in conditions characterized by poverty and social injustice, in both developing countries and in marginalized populations of industrialized nations. In Australia and New Zealand, GAS-associated Acute Rheumatic Fever (ARF) is a major cause of health inequality disproportionally affecting indigenous children. Recognition of these inequalities by the governments of Australia and New Zealand has resulted in the formation of a Trans-Tasman Coalition to Advance New Vaccines for group A Streptococcus (CANVAS). This review provides an update on the current status of GAS vaccine development, and describes global efforts by CANVAS and others to accelerate the development of GAS vaccines.

The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change

PubMed Central

Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M.

2012-01-01

A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations. PMID:22623955

Long-Distance Dispersal by Sea-Drifted Seeds Has Maintained the Global Distribution of Ipomoea pes-caprae subsp. brasiliensis (Convolvulaceae)

PubMed Central

Miryeganeh, Matin; Takayama, Koji; Tateishi, Yoichi; Kajita, Tadashi

2014-01-01

Ipomoea pes-caprae (Convolvulaceae), a pantropical plant with sea-drifted seeds, is found globally in the littoral areas of tropical and subtropical regions. Unusual long-distance seed dispersal has been believed to be responsible for its extraordinarily wide distribution; however, the actual level of inter-population migration has never been studied. To clarify the level of migration among populations of I. pes-caprae across its range, we investigated nucleotide sequence variations by using seven low-copy nuclear markers and 272 samples collected from 34 populations that cover the range of the species. We applied coalescent-based approaches using Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods to assess migration rates, direction of migration, and genetic diversity among five regional populations. Our results showed a high number of migrants among the regional populations of I. pes-caprae subsp. brasiliensis, which suggests that migration among distant populations was maintained by long-distance seed dispersal across its global range. These results also provide strong evidence for recent trans-oceanic seed dispersal by ocean currents in all three oceanic regions. We also found migration crossing the American continents. Although this is an apparent land barrier for sea-dispersal, migration between populations of the East Pacific and West Atlantic regions was high, perhaps because of trans-isthmus migration via pollen dispersal. Therefore, the migration and gene flow among populations across the vast range of I. pes-caprae is maintained not only by seed dispersal by sea-drifted seeds, but also by pollen flow over the American continents. On the other hand, populations of subsp. pes-caprae that are restricted to only the northern part of the Indian Ocean region were highly differentiated from subsp. brasiliensis. Cryptic barriers that prevented migration by sea dispersal between the ranges of the two subspecies and/or historical differentiation that caused local adaptation to different environmental factors in each region could explain the genetic differentiation between the subspecies. PMID:24755614

The Pan-University Network for Global Health: framework for collaboration and review of global health needs.

PubMed

Winchester, M S; BeLue, R; Oni, T; Wittwer-Backofen, U; Deobagkar, D; Onya, H; Samuels, T A; Matthews, S A; Stone, C; Airhihenbuwa, C

2016-04-21

In the current United Nations efforts to plan for post 2015-Millennium Development Goals, global partnership to address non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has become a critical goal to effectively respond to the complex global challenges of which inequity in health remains a persistent challenge. Building capacity in terms of well-equipped local researchers and service providers is a key to bridging the inequity in global health. Launched by Penn State University in 2014, the Pan University Network for Global Health responds to this need by bridging researchers at more than 10 universities across the globe. In this paper we outline our framework for international and interdisciplinary collaboration, as well the rationale for our research areas, including a review of these two themes. After its initial meeting, the network has established two central thematic priorities: 1) urbanization and health and 2) the intersection of infectious diseases and NCDs. The urban population in the global south will nearly double in 25 years (approx. 2 billion today to over 3.5 billion by 2040). Urban population growth will have a direct impact on global health, and this growth will be burdened with uneven development and the persistence of urban spatial inequality, including health disparities. The NCD burden, which includes conditions such as hypertension, stroke, and diabetes, is outstripping infectious disease in countries in the global south that are considered to be disproportionately burdened by infectious diseases. Addressing these two priorities demands an interdisciplinary and multi-institutional model to stimulate innovation and synergy that will influence the overall framing of research questions as well as the integration and coordination of research.

Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bański, Jerzy

2013-01-01

The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the "climatically displaced" in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase. In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.

Global risk of deadly heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, Camilo; Dousset, Bénédicte; Caldwell, Iain R.; Powell, Farrah E.; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Bielecki, Coral R.; Counsell, Chelsie W. W.; Dietrich, Bonnie S.; Johnston, Emily T.; Louis, Leo V.; Lucas, Matthew P.; McKenzie, Marie M.; Shea, Alessandra G.; Tseng, Han; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Leon, Lisa R.; Hawkins, Ed; Trauernicht, Clay

2017-07-01

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published between 1980 and 2014, and found 783 cases of excess human mortality associated with heat from 164 cities in 36 countries. Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly. Around 30% of the world's population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to ~48% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and ~74% under a scenario of growing emissions. An increasing threat to human life from excess heat now seems almost inevitable, but will be greatly aggravated if greenhouse gases are not considerably reduced.

A new global strategy for the elimination of schistosomiasis.

PubMed

Ross, Allen G P; Chau, Thao N; Inobaya, Marianette T; Olveda, Remigio M; Li, Yuesheng; Harn, Donald A

2017-01-01

Mass drug administration utilising a single oral dose of 40mg/kg of praziquantel (PZQ) has been endorsed and advocated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) for the global control and elimination of schistosomiasis. However, this strategy is failing primarily because the drugs are not getting to the people who need them the most. The current global coverage is 20%, the drug compliance rate is less than 50%, and the drug efficacy is approximately 50%. Thus in reality, only about 5% of the reservoir human population is actually receiving intermittent chemotherapy. Despite claims that more of the drug will soon be made available the current strategy is inherently flawed and will not lead to disease elimination. We discuss the many practical issues related to this global strategy, and advocate for an integrated control strategy targeting the life cycle and the most at-risk. Moreover, we discuss how an integrated control package for schistosomiasis should fit within a larger integrated health package for rural and remote villages in the developing world. A holistic health system approach is required to achieve sustainable control and ultimately disease elimination. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The globalization of epidemiology: introductory remarks.

PubMed

Pearce, Neil

2004-10-01

We are all living in the era of globalization, and like it or not, it is going to change the way we practice epidemiology, the kinds of questions we ask, and the methods we use to answer them. Increasingly, pubic health problems are being shifted from rich countries to poor countries and from rich to poor populations within Western countries. There is increasing interest and concern about the situation in non-Western populations on the part of Western epidemiologists, with regards to collaborative research, skills transfer, and 'volunteerism' to enable the 'benefits' of Western approaches to epidemiology to be shared by the non-Western world. However, most existing collaborations benefit Western epidemiologists rather than the countries in which the research is conducted. Even when research in non-Western populations is conducted as a genuine collaboration, it can too often 'export failure' from the West. On the other hand, non-Western epidemiologists are increasingly developing new and innovative approaches to health research that are more appropriate to the global public health issues they are addressing. These include recognition of the importance of context and the importance of diversity and local knowledge, and a problem-based approach to addressing the major public health problems using appropriate technology. These debates formed the background for a plenary session on 'International Epidemiology and International Health' at the recent International Epidemiological Association (IEA) meeting in Montreal, and the papers from this session are presented here. The development of a truly global epidemiology can not only better address the public health problems in non-Western populations, but can shed light on the current limitations of epidemiology in addressing the major public health problems in the West.

Interstellar gamma-ray emission from cosmic rays in star-forming galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, P.

2014-04-01

Context. Fermi/LAT observations of star-forming galaxies in the ~0.1-100 GeV range have made possible a first population study. Evidence was found for a correlation between γ-ray luminosity and tracers of the star formation activity. Studying galactic cosmic rays (CRs) in various global conditions can yield information about their origin and transport in the interstellar medium (ISM). Aims: This work addresses the question of the scaling laws that can be expected for the interstellar γ-ray emission as a function of global galactic properties, with the goal of establishing whether the current experimental data in the GeV range can be constraining. Methods: I developed a 2D model for the non-thermal emissions from steady-state CR populations interacting with the ISM in star-forming galaxies. Most CR-related parameters were taken from Milky Way studies, and a large number of galaxies were then simulated with sizes from 4 to 40 kpc, several gas distributions, and star formation rates (SFRs) covering six orders of magnitude. Results: The evolution of the γ-ray luminosity over the 100 keV-100 TeV range is presented, with emphasis on the contribution of the different emission processes and particle populations, and on the transition between transport regimes. The model can reproduce the normalisation and trend inferred from the Fermi/LAT population study over most of the SFR range. This is obtained with a plain diffusion scheme, a single diffusion coefficient, and the assumption that CRs experience large-scale volume-averaged interstellar conditions. There is, however, no universal relation between high-energy γ-ray luminosity and star formation activity, as illustrated by the scatter introduced by different galactic global properties and the downturn in γ-ray emission at the low end. Conclusions: The current Fermi/LAT population study does not call for major modifications of the transport scheme for CRs in the Milky Way when extrapolated to other systems, probably because the uncertainties are still too large. Additional constraints may be expected from doubling the Fermi/LAT exposure time and later from observing at TeV energies with the Cherenkov Telescope Array.

Going wild: what a global small-animal tracking system could do for experimental biologists.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin; Kays, Roland W; Kasdin, N Jeremy; Thorup, Kasper; Smith, James A; Swenson, George W

2007-01-01

Tracking animals over large temporal and spatial scales has revealed invaluable and spectacular biological information, particularly when the paths and fates of individuals can be monitored on a global scale. However, only large animals (greater than approximately 300 g) currently can be followed globally because of power and size constraints on the tracking devices. And yet the vast majority of animals is small. Tracking small animals is important because they are often part of evolutionary and ecological experiments, they provide important ecosystem services and they are of conservation concern or pose harm to human health. Here, we propose a small-animal satellite tracking system that would enable the global monitoring of animals down to the size of the smallest birds, mammals (bats), marine life and eventually large insects. To create the scientific framework necessary for such a global project, we formed the ICARUS initiative (www.IcarusInitiative.org), the International Cooperation for Animal Research Using Space. ICARUS also highlights how small-animal tracking could address some of the ;Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences' identified by the US National Academy of Sciences, such as the spread of infectious diseases or the relationship between biological diversity and ecosystem functioning. Small-animal tracking would allow the quantitative assessment of dispersal and migration in natural populations and thus help solve enigmas regarding population dynamics, extinctions and invasions. Experimental biologists may find a global small-animal tracking system helpful in testing, validating and expanding laboratory-derived discoveries in wild, natural populations. We suggest that the relatively modest investment into a global small-animal tracking system will pay off by providing unprecedented insights into both basic and applied nature. Tracking small animals over large spatial and temporal scales could prove to be one of the most powerful techniques of the early 21st century, offering potential solutions to a wide range of biological and societal questions that date back two millennia to the Greek philosopher Aristotle's enigma about songbird migration. Several of the more recent Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences, such as the regulation and functional consequences of biological diversity or the surveillance of the population ecology of zoonotic hosts, pathogens or vectors, could also be addressed by a global small-animal tracking system. Our discussion is intended to contribute to an emerging groundswell of scientific support to make such a new technological system happen.

Users' Perspectives on Tour-Guide Training Courses Using 3D Tourist Sites

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Yu-Fen; Mo, Huai-en

2014-01-01

Taiwan is currently attempting to develop itself into a twenty-first century tourist hub to take advantage of today's thriving global tourism economy. In the coming years, Taiwan anticipates an urgent demand for tour guides, and there is a clear need for training solutions that can serve a rapidly growing population. Computer-mediated virtual 3D…

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

The global fight to develop antipoverty vaccines in the anti-vaccine era.

PubMed

Hotez, Peter J

2018-02-02

Antipoverty vaccines are the vaccines targeting a group of approximately 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), as currently defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The "antipoverty" moniker refers to the fact that NTDs trap populations in poverty due to their chronic and deleterious effects on child intellect and worker productivity. Therefore, NTD vaccines can be expected to promote both global health and economic advancement. Unfortunately, antipoverty vaccine development has lagged behind vaccines for major childhood infections and pandemic threats, despite evidence for their cost-effectiveness and cost-savings. Currently, the only licensed vaccines for NTDs include those for yellow fever, dengue, and rabies, although several other NTD vaccines for hookworm disease, schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and Zika and Ebola virus infections are in different stages of clinical development, while others are at the preclinical development stage. With the exception of the viral NTD vaccines there so far has been minimal industry interest in the antipoverty vaccines, leaving their development to a handful of non-profit product development partnerships. The major scientific and geopolitical hurdles to antipoverty vaccine development are discussed, including a rising antivaccine ("antivax") movement now entering highly populated low- and middle-income countries.

Patterns and comparisons of human-induced changes in river flood impacts in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Stephanie; Sharma, Ashish; Sisson, Scott A.

2018-03-01

In this study, information extracted from the first global urban fluvial flood risk data set (Aqueduct) is investigated and visualized to explore current and projected city-level flood impacts driven by urbanization and climate change. We use a novel adaption of the self-organizing map (SOM) method, an artificial neural network proficient at clustering, pattern extraction, and visualization of large, multi-dimensional data sets. Prevalent patterns of current relationships and anticipated changes over time in the nonlinearly-related environmental and social variables are presented, relating urban river flood impacts to socioeconomic development and changing hydrologic conditions. Comparisons are provided between 98 individual cities. Output visualizations compare baseline and changing trends of city-specific exposures of population and property to river flooding, revealing relationships between the cities based on their relative map placements. Cities experiencing high (or low) baseline flood impacts on population and/or property that are expected to improve (or worsen), as a result of anticipated climate change and development, are identified and compared. This paper condenses and conveys large amounts of information through visual communication to accelerate the understanding of relationships between local urban conditions and global processes.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

A cross-sectional study on factors associated with patient-physician discordance in global assessment of patients with axial spondyloarthritis: an Asian perspective.

PubMed

Wang, Charmaine Tze May; Fong, Warren; Kwan, Yu Heng; Phang, Jie Kie; Lui, Nai Lee; Leung, Ying Ying; Thumboo, Julian; Cheung, Peter P

2018-06-19

To identify the factors associated with patient-physician discordance in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) in an Asian population. A cross-sectional study was conducted in two tertiary referral centers in Singapore. Patients with axSpA who fulfilled Assessment in Ankylosing Spondylitis International Working Group 2009 criteria for axSpA were included in the study. Socio-demographics, clinical, laboratory and patient-reported outcomes data were collected during study visits from 2014 to 2015. We performed univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses to evaluate the factors associated with patient-physician discordance, which we defined as the difference between Patient Global Assessment and Physician Global Assessment. Included in the study were 298 axSpA patients: 82% male, 81% Chinese, median age 40 (20-78) years, median disease duration 9 (0.1-48) years. 80% were on non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and 23% on biologics. In univariate analysis, current age (β: 0.18, ρ = 0.06), duration of disease (β: 0.34, ρ = 0.03), post-secondary education level (β: -10.82, ρ = 0.03), global pain score (β: 0.33, ρ < 0.01), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (β: 2.80, ρ < 0.01), Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score C-reactive protein (β: 4.63, ρ < 0.01) and current use of biologics (β: 10.97, ρ < 0.01) were associated with patient-physician discordance. In multivariate analysis, global pain score (β: 0.32, ρ < 0.01), post-secondary education level (β: -12.80, ρ = 0.01) and current biologics use (β: 16.21, ρ < 0.01) were associated with patient-physician discordance. Higher global pain score, lower educational level and current biologics use were associated with greater patient-physician discordance. These factors should be considered during shared decision making. © 2018 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Food security and sustainable resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, Dennis; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang

2015-07-01

The projected growth in global food demand until mid-century will challenge our ability to continue recent increases in crop yield and will have a significant impact on natural resources. The water and land requirements of current agriculture are significantly less than global reserves but local shortages are common and have serious impacts on food security. Recent increases in global trade have mitigated some of the effects of spatial and temporal variability. However, trade has a limited impact on low-income populations who remain dependent on subsistence agriculture and local resources. Potential adverse environmental impacts of increased agricultural production include unsustainable depletion of water and soil resources, major changes in the global nitrogen and phosphorous cycles, human health problems related to excessive nutrient and pesticide use, and loss of habitats that contribute to agricultural productivity. Some typical case studies from China illustrate the connections between the need for increased food production and environmental stress. Sustainable options for decreasing food demand and for increasing production include reduction of food losses on both the producer and consumer ends, elimination of unsustainable practices such as prolonged groundwater overdraft, closing of yield gaps with controlled expansions of fertilizer application, increases in crop yield and pest resistance through advances in biotechnology, and moderate expansion of rain fed and irrigated cropland. Calculations based on reasonable assumptions suggest that such measures could meet the food needs of an increasing global population while protecting the environment.

Global invasion network of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys.

PubMed

Valentin, Rafael E; Nielsen, Anne L; Wiman, Nik G; Lee, Doo-Hyung; Fonseca, Dina M

2017-08-29

Human mediated transportation into novel habitats is a prerequisite for the establishment of non-native species that become invasive, so knowledge of common sources may allow prevention. The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) is an East Asian species now established across North America and Europe, that in the Eastern United States of America (US) and Italy is causing significant economic losses to agriculture. After US populations were shown to originate from Northern China, others have tried to source BMSB populations now in Canada, Switzerland, Italy, France, Greece, and Hungary. Due to selection of different molecular markers, however, integrating all the datasets to obtain a broader picture of BMSB's expansion has been difficult. To address this limitation we focused on a single locus, the barcode region in the cytochrome oxidase I mitochondrial gene, and analyzed representative BMSB samples from across its current global range using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. We found that China is the likely source of most non-native populations, with at least four separate introductions in North America and three in Europe. Additionally, we found evidence of one bridgehead event: a likely Eastern US source for the central Italy populations that interestingly share enhanced pest status.

Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.

PubMed

Ellis, Erle C

2011-03-13

Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.

Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

2013-09-01

Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

Geographic and temporal dynamics of a global radiation and diversification in the killer whale.

PubMed

Morin, Phillip A; Parsons, Kim M; Archer, Frederick I; Ávila-Arcos, María C; Barrett-Lennard, Lance G; Dalla Rosa, Luciano; Duchêne, Sebastián; Durban, John W; Ellis, Graeme M; Ferguson, Steven H; Ford, John K; Ford, Michael J; Garilao, Cristina; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Kaschner, Kristin; Matkin, Craig O; Petersen, Stephen D; Robertson, Kelly M; Visser, Ingrid N; Wade, Paul R; Ho, Simon Y W; Foote, Andrew D

2015-08-01

Global climate change during the Late Pleistocene periodically encroached and then released habitat during the glacial cycles, causing range expansions and contractions in some species. These dynamics have played a major role in geographic radiations, diversification and speciation. We investigate these dynamics in the most widely distributed of marine mammals, the killer whale (Orcinus orca), using a global data set of over 450 samples. This marine top predator inhabits coastal and pelagic ecosystems ranging from the ice edge to the tropics, often exhibiting ecological, behavioural and morphological variation suggestive of local adaptation accompanied by reproductive isolation. Results suggest a rapid global radiation occurred over the last 350 000 years. Based on habitat models, we estimated there was only a 15% global contraction of core suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum, and the resources appeared to sustain a constant global effective female population size throughout the Late Pleistocene. Reconstruction of the ancestral phylogeography highlighted the high mobility of this species, identifying 22 strongly supported long-range dispersal events including interoceanic and interhemispheric movement. Despite this propensity for geographic dispersal, the increased sampling of this study uncovered very few potential examples of ancestral dispersal among ecotypes. Concordance of nuclear and mitochondrial data further confirms genetic cohesiveness, with little or no current gene flow among sympatric ecotypes. Taken as a whole, our data suggest that the glacial cycles influenced local populations in different ways, with no clear global pattern, but with secondary contact among lineages following long-range dispersal as a potential mechanism driving ecological diversification. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population dynamics of Siderastrea stellata Verrill, 1868 from Rocas Atoll, RN: implications for predicted climate change impacts at the only South Atlantic atoll.

PubMed

Miranda, Andrea L; Cordeiro, Soraia M; Reis, Joice N; Cardoso, Lucas G; Guimarães, Alaíse G

2017-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to ocean warming and acidification, and it is important to determine the role of reef building species in this environment in order to obtain insight into their susceptibility to expected impacts of global changes. Aspects of the life history of a coral population, such as reproduction, growth and size-frequency can contribute to the production of models that are used to estimate impacts and potential recovery of the population, acting as a powerful tool for the conservation and management of those ecosystems. Here, we present the first evidence of Siderastrea stellata planulation, its early growth, population size-frequency distribution and growth rate of adult colonies in Rocas Atoll. Our results, together with the environmental protection policies and the absence of anthropogenic pressures, suggest that S. stellata population may have a good potential in the maintenance and recovery in the atoll. However, our results also indicate an impact on corals' recruitment, probably as a consequence of the positive temperature anomaly that occurred in 2010. Thus, despite the pristine status of Rocas Atoll, the preservation of its coral community seems to be threatened by current global changes, such as more frequent thermal stress events.

Climate change and developing-country cities: implications for environmental health and equity.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Corvalán, Carlos

2007-05-01

Climate change is an emerging threat to global public health. It is also highly inequitable, as the greatest risks are to the poorest populations, who have contributed least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The rapid economic development and the concurrent urbanization of poorer countries mean that developing-country cities will be both vulnerable to health hazards from climate change and, simultaneously, an increasing contributor to the problem. We review the specific health vulnerabilities of urban populations in developing countries and highlight the range of large direct health effects of energy policies that are concentrated in urban areas. Common vulnerability factors include coastal location, exposure to the urban heat-island effect, high levels of outdoor and indoor air pollution, high population density, and poor sanitation. There are clear opportunities for simultaneously improving health and cutting GHG emissions most obviously through policies related to transport systems, urban planning, building regulations and household energy supply. These influence some of the largest current global health burdens, including approximately 800,000 annual deaths from ambient urban air pollution, 1.2 million from road-traffic accidents, 1.9 million from physical inactivity, and 1.5 million per year from indoor air pollution. GHG emissions and health protection in developing-country cities are likely to become increasingly prominent in policy development. There is a need for a more active input from the health sector to ensure that development and health policies contribute to a preventive approach to local and global environmental sustainability, urban population health, and health equity.

Development of an establishment scheme for a DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiang; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhu, Jiawen; Shao, Pu

2016-07-01

Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics (e.g., global distribution, etc.), ignoring their roles in the population dynamics (e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.) of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics (such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems) and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types (PFTs) on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa.

Population catastrophe.

PubMed

Ankomah, B

1990-07-01

UNFPA estimates predict that Africa's population will be 1.5 billion by 2025. In the next 10 years the growth rate will be 3%, the highest for any region in human history. Nigeria is expected to have 301 million people in 35 years, making it the 3rd largest country behind India and China. Currently the economies of African countries can not provide enough jobs or food for the current population. What is going to happen in 35 years when the population will almost double? In 1950 Africa only made up 9% of the world population, but by 2025 it will be 18.4% of a global population of 8.4 billion. Currently half of Africa's population is under 15. This means that there is still time to affect change. There is time to convince this generation not to behave like their parents. A 2 child limit per family is an absolute limit if any progress is to be made that will actually have an effect. Many have suggested that the young people should go back to the land instead of living in poverty in the city. However, currently the land distribution is 0.4 hectares/rural person. This figure is going to drop to 0.29/rural person. Migration is simply not the solution. Many rural farmers want to have enough children to ensure that their land is inherited and stays in the family. The same goal can be achieved, with less children. According to the UNFPA 77% of married women who do not want to have more children do not use contraceptives. Only 14% of African women use contraceptives, so that by age 20 50% of African women have had 1 birth. The only way to seriously cut down the birth rate is to get the men of Africa involved in contraceptive use.

Human neutral genetic variation and forensic STR data.

PubMed

Silva, Nuno M; Pereira, Luísa; Poloni, Estella S; Currat, Mathias

2012-01-01

The forensic genetics field is generating extensive population data on polymorphism of short tandem repeats (STR) markers in globally distributed samples. In this study we explored and quantified the informative power of these datasets to address issues related to human evolution and diversity, by using two online resources: an allele frequency dataset representing 141 populations summing up to almost 26 thousand individuals; a genotype dataset consisting of 42 populations and more than 11 thousand individuals. We show that the genetic relationships between populations based on forensic STRs are best explained by geography, as observed when analysing other worldwide datasets generated specifically to study human diversity. However, the global level of genetic differentiation between populations (as measured by a fixation index) is about half the value estimated with those other datasets, which contain a much higher number of markers but much less individuals. We suggest that the main factor explaining this difference is an ascertainment bias in forensics data resulting from the choice of markers for individual identification. We show that this choice results in average low variance of heterozygosity across world regions, and hence in low differentiation among populations. Thus, the forensic genetic markers currently produced for the purpose of individual assignment and identification allow the detection of the patterns of neutral genetic structure that characterize the human population but they do underestimate the levels of this genetic structure compared to the datasets of STRs (or other kinds of markers) generated specifically to study the diversity of human populations.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain. PMID:27248830

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change.

PubMed

Godber, Olivia F; Wall, Richard

2014-10-01

Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chrono-nutrition: a review of current evidence from observational studies on global trends in time-of-day of energy intake and its association with obesity.

PubMed

Almoosawi, S; Vingeliene, S; Karagounis, L G; Pot, G K

2016-11-01

The importance of the circadian rhythm in regulating human food intake behaviour and metabolism has long been recognised. However, little is known as to how energy intake is distributed over the day in existing populations, and its potential association with obesity. The present review describes global trends in time-of-day of energy intake in the general population based on data from cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity is also summarised. Overall, there were a limited number of cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts that provided data on time-of-day of energy intake. In the identified studies, a wide variation in time-of-day of energy intake was observed, with patterns of energy distribution varying greatly by country and geographical area. In relation to obesity, eight cross-sectional surveys and two longitudinal cohorts were identified. The association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity varied widely, with several studies reporting a positive link between evening energy intake and obesity. In conclusion, the current review summarises global trends in time-of-day of energy intake. The large variations across countries and global regions could have important implications to health, emphasising the need to understand the socio-environmental factors guiding such differences in eating patterns. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and BMI also varied. Further larger scale collaborations between various countries and regions are needed to sum data from existing surveys and cohorts, and guide our understanding of the role of chrono-nutrition in health.

Persistence of Soil Organic Carbon can be Explained as an Emergent Property of Microbial Ecology and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, D.; Lehmann, J.

2016-12-01

The exchange of carbon between soils and the atmosphere represents an important uncertainty in climate predictions. Current Earth system models apply soil organic matter (SOM) models based on independent carbon pools with 1st order decomposition dynamics. It has been widely argued over the last decade that such models do not accurately describe soil processes and mechanisms. For example, the long term persistence of soil organic carbon (SOC) is only adequately described by such models by the post hoc assumption of passive or inert carbon pools. Further, such 1st order models also fail to account for microbially-mediated dynamics such as priming interactions. These shortcomings may limit their applicability to long term predictions under conditions of global environmental change. In addition to incorporating recent conceptual advances in the mechanisms of SOM decomposition and protection, next-generation SOM models intended for use in Earth system models need to meet further quality criteria. Namely, that they should (a) accurately describe historical data from long term trials and the current global distribution of soil organic carbon, (b) be computationally efficient for large number of iterations involved in climate modeling, and (c) have sufficiently simple parameterization that they can be run on spatially-explicit data available at global scale under varying conditions of global change over long time scales. Here we show that linking fundamental ecological principles and microbial population dynamics to SOC turnover rates results in a dynamic model that meets all of these quality criteria. This approach simultaneously eliminates the need to postulate biogeochemically-implausible passive or inert pools, instead showing how SOM persistence emerges from ecological principles, while also reproducing observed priming interactions.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed Central

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-01-01

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

Decontamination of the pediatric patient.

PubMed

Zhao, Xian; Dughly, Omar; Simpson, Joelle

2016-06-01

This article will review current guidelines for decontamination procedures for chemical, biological, and radiologic exposures with a focus on pediatric specific considerations. There has been a global increase in terrorist incidents that expose large populations to toxic agents associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The pathophysiology, treatment, and management of these toxic exposures may be unfamiliar to the healthcare provider. Additionally, children are particularly vulnerable to terrorist threats as they have unique anatomical, physiological, psychological, and developmental characteristics distinct from the adult population. Because pediatric patients are at greater risk than the general population, providers should be prepared to deliver age-appropriate care. Additionally, the ideal decontamination protocol is designed to maintain family units to maximize efficiency and minimize psychological trauma.

The impact of Global Warming on global crop yields due to changes in pest pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, D. S.; Tewksbury, J. J.; Deutsch, C. A.

2011-12-01

A billion people currently lack reliable access to sufficient food and almost half of the calories feeding these people come from just three crops: rice, maize, wheat. Insect pests are among the largest factors affecting the yield of these three crops, but models assessing the effects of global warming on crops rarely consider changes in insect pest pressure on crop yields. We use well-established relationships between temperature and insect physiology to project climate-driven changes in pest pressure, defined as integrated population metabolism, for the three major crops. By the middle of this century, under most scenarios, insect pest pressure is projected to increase by more than 50% in temperate areas, while increases in tropical regions will be more modest. Yield relationships indicate that the largest increases in insect pest pressure are likely to occur in areas where yield is greatest, suggesting increased strain on global food markets.

Medicalization of global health 3: the medicalization of the non-communicable diseases agenda.

PubMed

Clark, Jocalyn

2014-01-01

There is growing recognition of the massive global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) due to their prevalence, projected social and economic costs, and traditional neglect compared to infectious disease. The 2011 UN Summit, WHO 25×25 targets, and support of major medical and advocacy organisations have propelled prominence of NCDs on the global health agenda. NCDs are by definition 'diseases' so already medicalized. But their social drivers and impacts are acknowledged, which demand a broad, whole-of-society approach. However, while both individual- and population-level targets are identified in the current NCD action plans, most recommended strategies tend towards the individualistic approach and do not address root causes of the NCD problem. These so-called population strategies risk being reduced to expectations of individual and behavioural change, which may have limited success and impact and deflect attention away from government policies or regulation of industry. Industry involvement in NCD agenda-setting props up a medicalized approach to NCDs: food and drink companies favour focus on individual choice and responsibility, and pharmaceutical and device companies favour calls for expanded access to medicines and treatment coverage. Current NCD framing creates expanded roles for physicians, healthcare workers, medicines and medical monitoring. The professional rather than the patient view dominates the NCD agenda and there is a lack of a broad, engaged, and independent NGO community. The challenge and opportunity lie in defining priorities and developing strategies that go beyond a narrow medicalized framing of the NCD problem and its solutions.

Aquaculture and food crisis: opportunities and constraints.

PubMed

Liao, I Chiu; Chao, Nai-Hsien

2009-01-01

Fish farming, now well known as aquaculture, has been well recognized since the ancient era. The first written document on fish culture was published in China in 475 BC, and the first koi pond was constructed at the Japanese Imperial Palace grounds during 71-130 AD. In recent years, aquaculture has progressively played an important role in the provision of: animal protein and gourmet cuisines, job opportunities, and foreign currency for developing countries. Asian countries produce around 91 percent of the world's total aquaculture production. Among the top ten aquaculture-producing countries, nine are from Asia. The current global population consist of more than 6.5 billion individuals; over one billion of which face hunger problem. In the highly populated Asia-Pacific region with moderately high-productivity, 642 million people are still facing hunger. Being a proficient and potential source of animal protein, aquaculture will play an increasing and important role in solving the world food problem in the future. This paper discusses both the opportunities and constraints in the aquaculture industry, specifically in the Asia-Pacific region, and its possible role in solving the current global food crisis. Strategies including promotion and adoption of traceability and HACCP systems for food safety, and marketing management for aquaculture products are also suggested. It is hoped that traditional administration of aquaculture management for survival, profit, as well as food safety will successfully match sustainability management to meet the urgent global need for food.

National nutrition surveys in Asian countries: surveillance and monitoring efforts to improve global health.

PubMed

Song, SuJin; Song, Won O

2014-01-01

Asian regions have been suffering from growing double burden of nutritional health problems, such as undernutrition and chronic diseases. National nutrition survey plays an essential role in helping to improve both national and global health and reduce health disparities. The aim of this review was to compile and present the information on current national nutrition surveys conducted in Asian countries and suggest relevant issues in implementation of national nutrition surveys. Fifteen countries in Asia have conducted national nutrition surveys to collect data on nutrition and health status of the population. The information on national nutrition survey of each country was obtained from government documents, international organizations, survey website of governmental agencies, and publications, including journal articles, books, reports, and brochures. The national nutrition survey of each country has different variables and procedures. Variables of the surveys include sociodemographic and lifestyle variables; foods and beverages intake, dietary habits, and food security of individual or household; and health indicators, such as anthropometric and biochemical variables. The surveys have focused on collecting data about nutritional health status in children aged under five years and women of reproductive ages, nutrition intake adequacy and prevalence of obesity and chronic diseases for all individuals. To measure nutrition and health status of Asian populations accurately, improvement of current dietary assessment methods with various diet evaluation tools is necessary. The information organized in this review is important for researchers, policy makers, public health program developers, educators, and consumers in improving national and global health.

The WFSA Global Anesthesia Workforce Survey.

PubMed

Kempthorne, Peter; Morriss, Wayne W; Mellin-Olsen, Jannicke; Gore-Booth, Julian

2017-09-01

Safe anesthesia and surgical care are not available when needed for 5 billion of the world's 7 billion people. There are major deficiencies in the specialist surgical workforce in many parts of the world, and specific data on the anesthesia workforce are lacking. The World Federation of Societies of Anaesthesiologists conducted a workforce survey during 2015 and 2016. The aim of the survey was to collect detailed information on physician anesthesia provider (PAP) and non-physician anesthesia provider (NPAP) numbers, distribution, and training. Data were categorized according to World Health Organization regional groups and World Bank income groups. We obtained information for 153 of 197 countries, representing 97.5% of the world's population. There were marked differences in the density of PAPs between World Health Organization regions and between World Bank income groups, ranging from 0 to over 20 PAP per 100,000 population. Seventy-seven countries reported a PAP density of <5, with particularly low densities in the African and South-East Asia regions. NPAPs make up a large part of the global anesthesia workforce, especially in countries with limited resources. Even when NPAPs are included, 70 countries had a total anesthesia provider density of <5 per 100,000. Using current population data, over 136,000 additional PAPs would be needed immediately to achieve a minimum density of 5 per 100,000 population in all countries. The World Federation of Societies of Anaesthesiologists Global Anesthesia Workforce Survey is the most comprehensive study of the global anesthesia workforce to date. It is the first step in a process of ongoing data collection and longitudinal follow-up. The authors recommend an interim goal of at least 5 specialist physician anesthesia providers (anesthesiologists) per 100,000 population. A marked increase in training of PAPs and NPAPs will need to occur if we are to have any hope of achieving safe anesthesia for all by 2030.

The episode of genetic drift defining the migration of humans out of Africa is derived from a large east African population size.

PubMed

Elhassan, Nuha; Gebremeskel, Eyoab Iyasu; Elnour, Mohamed Ali; Isabirye, Dan; Okello, John; Hussien, Ayman; Kwiatksowski, Dominic; Hirbo, Jibril; Tishkoff, Sara; Ibrahim, Muntaser E

2014-01-01

Human genetic variation particularly in Africa is still poorly understood. This is despite a consensus on the large African effective population size compared to populations from other continents. Based on sequencing of the mitochondrial Cytochrome C Oxidase subunit II (MT-CO2), and genome wide microsatellite data we observe evidence suggesting the effective size (Ne) of humans to be larger than the current estimates, with a foci of increased genetic diversity in east Africa, and a population size of east Africans being at least 2-6 fold larger than other populations. Both phylogenetic and network analysis indicate that east Africans possess more ancestral lineages in comparison to various continental populations placing them at the root of the human evolutionary tree. Our results also affirm east Africa as the likely spot from which migration towards Asia has taken place. The study reflects the spectacular level of sequence variation within east Africans in comparison to the global sample, and appeals for further studies that may contribute towards filling the existing gaps in the database. The implication of these data to current genomic research, as well as the need to carry out defined studies of human genetic variation that includes more African populations; particularly east Africans is paramount.

Understanding the futility of countries' obligations for health rights: realising justice for the global poor.

PubMed

Barugahare, John; Lie, Reidar K

2016-06-03

Although health is a right of all individuals without any distinction, the realisation of this right has remained very difficult for the marginalised populations of poor countries. Inequitable distribution of health opportunities globally is a major factor in explaining why this is the case. Whereas the Protection, Promotion and Fulfilment of the health rights of poor country citizens are a joint responsibility of both domestic and external governments, most governments flout their obligations. So far disproportionate effort has been dedicated to reaffirming and interpreting these obligations as opposed to investigating the fundamental question regarding why these obligations have nevertheless remained largely unfulfilled. Further the normative question regarding what ought to be done about the shortcomings of current obligations has been largely ignored. We conduct a critical content analysis of existing literature on efforts towards the realisation of the health rights of marginalised populations in our attempt to ascertain their capacity to guarantee basic health opportunities to marginalised populations. In our analysis we treat issues of 'health rights' and 'justice in global health' as having unity of purpose - guaranteeing basic health opportunities to the marginalised populations. We identify two sets of reasons for the failure of present obligations for global distributive justice in general: a set of 'superficial reasons' and a set of 'fundamental reasons' which account for the superficial reasons. In order to overcome these reasons we propose a strategy which consists in specifying a number of minimum and less-demanding obligations for both external and domestic governments to guarantee to all individuals a certain threshold of health goods and services. We argue that these minimum obligations can be freely accepted and fully complied with or enforced with "a thin system of enforcement" without significant threat to national sovereignty and autonomy. The futility of countries' obligations for the health rights of the global poor as is the case with global distributive injustice is because of lack of political will to specify and enforce such obligations. Minimum obligations should be specified and enforced with a "thin system" which is consistent with principles of national sovereignty and autonomy.

Genetic analysis of Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) reveals a deep divergence in the original regions.

PubMed

Ruiling, Zhang; Tongkai, Liu; Zhendong, Huang; Guifen, Zhuang; Dezhen, Ma; Zhong, Zhang

2018-05-02

Aedes albopictus has been described as one of the 100 worst invasive species in the world. This mosquito originated from southeastern Asia and currently has a widespread presence in every continent except Antarctica. The rapid global expansion of Ae. albopictus has increased public health concerns about arbovirus-related disease threats. Adaptation, adaption to novel areas is a biological challenge for invasive species, and the underlying processes can be studied at the molecular level. In this study, genetic analysis was performed using mitochondrial gene NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5 (ND5), based on both native and invasive populations. Altogether, 38 haplotypes were detected with H1 being the dominant and widely distributed in 21 countries. Both phylogenetic and network analyses supported the existence of five clades, with only clade I being involved in the subsequent global spread of Asian tiger mosquito. The other four clades (II, III, IV and V) were restricted to their original regions, which could be ancestral populations that had diverged from clade I in the early stages of evolution. Neutrality tests suggested that most of the populations had experienced recent expansion. Analysis of molecular variance and the population-pair statistic F ST revealed that most populations lacked genetic structure, while high variability was detected within populations. Multiple and independent human-mediated introductions may explain the present results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research and the health of indigenous populations in low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Mohindra, K S

2017-06-01

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)-when there are available data-a 'health divide' exists between indigenous and non-indigenous populations living in the same society. Despite the limited available evidence suggesting that indigenous populations have high levels of health needs, there is scant research on indigenous health, especially in Africa, China and South Asia. Pursuing research, however, is clouded by the prior negative experiences that indigenous populations have had with researchers. In this paper, we describe the current evidence base on indigenous health in LMICs, propose practical strategies for undertaking future research, and conclude by describing how global health researchers can contribute to improving the health of indigenous populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Increasing population and declining biological resources in the context of global change and globalization.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, P S

2001-11-01

In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human population that is rapidly growing, the world is currently faced with a variety of environmental uncertainties. 'Global change' covering a whole variety of ecological issues, and 'globalization' in an economic sense, are two major phenomena that are responsible for these uncertainties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that the developing countries more than the developed, particularly the marginalized traditional (those living close to nature and natural resources) societies would be the worst sufferers. In order to cope with this problem in a situation where the traditional societies have to cope with rapidly depleting biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for sustainable management of natural resources and societal development. Such pathways should be based on a landscape management strategy, that takes into consideration the rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) that these societies have. This is critical because TEK is the connecting link between conservation and sustainable development. This paper explores the possibilities in this direction through a balanced approach to development, that links the 'traditional' with the 'modern', in a location-specific way.

Global and regional trends in the nutritional status of young people: a critical and neglected age group.

PubMed

Akseer, Nadia; Al-Gashm, Sara; Mehta, Seema; Mokdad, Ali; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2017-04-01

Adolescence and emerging adulthood form a critical time period for the achievement of optimal health and nutrition across all stages of the life course. We undertook a review of published literature and global data repositories for information on nutrition levels, trends, and patterns among young people aged 10-24 years from January 1, 2016 to September 20, 2016. We describe patterns for both males and females at the global level and for geographic regions for the period covering 1990-2015. The results of this study paint a less than ideal picture of current young people's nutrition, suggesting dual burdens of underweight and high body-mass index in many countries and variable improvements in micronutrient deficiencies across geographical regions. Poor diet diversity and lack of nutrient-dense food, high risk for metabolic syndrome, and sedentary lifestyles also characterize this population. The need for objective, comparable, and high-quality data is also recognized for further study in this area. As the global community works toward supporting and scaling up health gains in the sustainable development goal era, realizing the critical role of young people is essential. Investing in young people's nutrition is critical to making strides in improving the overall health and well-being of all populations. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

The global collaboration on traumatic stress.

PubMed

Schnyder, Ulrich; Schäfer, Ingo; Aakvaag, Helene F; Ajdukovic, Dean; Bakker, Anne; Bisson, Jonathan I; Brewer, Douglas; Cloitre, Marylène; Dyb, Grete A; Frewen, Paul; Lanza, Juliana; Le Brocque, Robyne; Lueger-Schuster, Brigitte; Mwiti, Gladys K; Oe, Misari; Rosner, Rita; Schellong, Julia; Shigemura, Jun; Wu, Kitty; Olff, Miranda

2017-01-01

Trauma is a global issue. The great majority of the global burden of disease arising from mental health conditions occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), among populations in political, economic, and/or cultural transition and those struck by forced migration. These mental health problems frequently arise as a result of traumatic events that adversely affect adults, children, and families, including war, mass violence, natural disasters, and accidents. In response to this, the International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies (ISTSS) launched the Global Initiative to have a stronger global impact on trauma-related issues. As part of this initiative, the Global Collaboration was established by representatives of eight professional organizations active in the field of traumatic stress. The group decided to focus on childhood abuse and neglect as its first collaboration. They collected guidelines worldwide, providing the basis for a synthesized core guide for prevention and treatment that can be customized for specific cultural contexts. The resulting 'Internet information on Childhood Abuse and Neglect' (iCAN) is a comprehensive guide for adults who have been affected by childhood abuse and neglect, as well as for the survivors' significant others. It is currently provided in eight languages, and is freely available at the homepage of ISTSS and other websites. A second achievement of the Global Collaboration is the validation of the Computerized Childhood Attachment and Relational Trauma Screen (CARTS), a self-report measure designed to measure occurrences of childhood maltreatment, and its translation into multiple languages, including Croatian, Dutch, French, Georgian, German, Italian, Japanese, Norwegian, Russian, and Spanish. A study is currently planned to collect normative responses to the questionnaire, and to conduct cross-cultural comparisons. The Global Collaboration's success may be seen as an encouraging step towards a truly global structure in the field of traumatic stress.

Quantifying fall migration of Ross's gulls (Rhodostethia rosea) past Point Barrow, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uher-Koch, Brian D.; Davis, Shanti E.; Maftei, Mark; Gesmundo, Callie; Suydam, R.S.; Mallory, Mark L.

2014-01-01

The Ross's gull (Rhodostethia rosea) is a poorly known seabird of the circumpolar Arctic. The only place in the world where Ross's gulls are known to congregate is in the near-shore waters around Point Barrow, Alaska where they undertake an annual passage in late fall. Ross's gulls seen at Point Barrow are presumed to originate from nesting colonies in Siberia, but neither their origin nor their destination has been confirmed. Current estimates of the global population of Ross's gulls are based largely on expert opinion, and the only reliable population estimate is derived from extrapolations from previous counts conducted at Point Barrow, but these data are now over 25 years old. In order to update and clarify the status of this species in Alaska, our study quantified the timing, number, and flight direction of Ross's gulls passing Point Barrow in 2011. We recorded up to two-thirds of the estimated global population of Ross's gulls (≥ 27,000 individuals) over 39 days with numbers peaking on 16 October when we observed over 7,000 birds during a three-hour period.

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

2012-05-01

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

Building the foundations of an informatics agenda for global health - 2011 workshop report.

PubMed

Mirza, Muzna; Kratz, Mary; Medeiros, Donna; Pina, Jamie; Richards, Janise; Zhang, Xiaohui; Fraser, Hamish; Bailey, Christopher; Krishnamurthy, Ramesh

2012-01-01

Strengthening the capacity of public health systems to protect and promote the health of the global population continues to be essential in an increasingly connected world. Informatics practices and principles can play an important role for improving global health response capacity. A critical step is to develop an informatics agenda for global health so that efforts can be prioritized and important global health issues addressed. With the aim of building a foundation for this agenda, the authors developed a workshop to examine the evidence in this domain, recognize the gaps, and document evidence-based recommendations. On 21 August 2011, at the 2011 Public Health Informatics Conference in Atlanta, GA, USA, a four-hour interactive workshop was conducted with 85 participants from 15 countries representing governmental organizations, private sector companies, academia, and non-governmental organizations. The workshop discussion followed an agenda of a plenary session - planning and agenda setting - and four tracks: Policy and governance; knowledge management, collaborative networks and global partnerships; capacity building; and globally reusable resources: metrics, tools, processes, templates, and digital assets. Track discussions examined the evidence base and the participants' experience to gather information about the current status, compelling and potential benefits, challenges, barriers, and gaps for global health informatics as well as document opportunities and recommendations. This report provides a summary of the discussions and key recommendations as a first step towards building an informatics agenda for global health. Attention to the identified topics and issues is expected to lead to measurable improvements in health equity, health outcomes, and impacts on population health. We propose the workshop report be used as a foundation for the development of the full agenda and a detailed roadmap for global health informatics activities based on further contribution from key stakeholders. The global health informatics agenda and roadmap can provide guidance to countries for developing and enhancing their individual and regional agendas.

Building the Foundations of an Informatics Agenda for Global Health - 2011 Workshop Report

PubMed Central

Mirza, Muzna; Kratz, Mary; Medeiros, Donna; Pina, Jamie; Richards, Janise; Zhang, Xiaohui; Fraser, Hamish; Bailey, Christopher; Krishnamurthy, Ramesh

2012-01-01

Strengthening the capacity of public health systems to protect and promote the health of the global population continues to be essential in an increasingly connected world. Informatics practices and principles can play an important role for improving global health response capacity. A critical step is to develop an informatics agenda for global health so that efforts can be prioritized and important global health issues addressed. With the aim of building a foundation for this agenda, the authors developed a workshop to examine the evidence in this domain, recognize the gaps, and document evidence-based recommendations. On 21 August 2011, at the 2011 Public Health Informatics Conference in Atlanta, GA, USA, a four-hour interactive workshop was conducted with 85 participants from 15 countries representing governmental organizations, private sector companies, academia, and non-governmental organizations. The workshop discussion followed an agenda of a plenary session - planning and agenda setting - and four tracks: Policy and governance; knowledge management, collaborative networks and global partnerships; capacity building; and globally reusable resources: metrics, tools, processes, templates, and digital assets. Track discussions examined the evidence base and the participants’ experience to gather information about the current status, compelling and potential benefits, challenges, barriers, and gaps for global health informatics as well as document opportunities and recommendations. This report provides a summary of the discussions and key recommendations as a first step towards building an informatics agenda for global health. Attention to the identified topics and issues is expected to lead to measurable improvements in health equity, health outcomes, and impacts on population health. We propose the workshop report be used as a foundation for the development of the full agenda and a detailed roadmap for global health informatics activities based on further contribution from key stakeholders. The global health informatics agenda and roadmap can provide guidance to countries for developing and enhancing their individual and regional agendas. PMID:23569628

Transforming insect biomass into consumer wellness foods: A review.

PubMed

Sun-Waterhouse, Dongxiao; Waterhouse, Geoffrey I N; You, Lijun; Zhang, Jianan; Liu, Yang; Ma, Lukai; Gao, Jie; Dong, Yi

2016-11-01

Potential food shortages, human health challenges and environmental concerns, all thematically linked to growing and aging global populations, drive the search for alternative and sustainable food sources. Insects, which have been part of the human diet since antiquity though not currently widely consumed in Western societies, are rich in high quality proteins and nutrients and bioactives. Accordingly, insects could make a significant contribution to the global food supply chain in the future. This review explores the potential of entomophagy in an integrated global food network and focuses on practical approaches for transforming insect biomass into consumer food products. Carefully regulated breeding, rearing, harvesting and processing of insect bioresources are critical for realising the concept of "edible insects for human well-being". Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From local perception to global perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Stocker, Thomas F.

2015-08-01

Recent sociological studies show that over short time periods the large day-to-day, month-to-month or year-to-year variations in weather at a specific location can influence and potentially bias our perception of climate change, a more long-term and global phenomenon. By weighting local temperature anomalies with the number of people that experience them and considering longer time periods, we illustrate that the share of the world population exposed to warmer-than-normal temperatures has steadily increased during the past few decades. Therefore, warming is experienced by an increasing number of individuals, counter to what might be simply inferred from global mean temperature anomalies. This behaviour is well-captured by current climate models, offering an opportunity to increase confidence in future projections of climate change irrespective of the personal local perception of weather.

Ebola epidemic exposes the pathology of the global economic and political system.

PubMed

Sanders, David; Sengupta, Amit; Scott, Vera

2015-01-01

While the current Ebola epidemic spiraled out of control to become the biggest in history, the global public health response has been criticized as "too little, too late." Many, like the World Health Organization, are asking what lessons have been learned from this epidemic. We present an analysis of the political economy of this Ebola outbreak that reveals the importance of addressing the social determinants that facilitated the exposure of populations, previously unaffected by Ebola Virus Disease, to infection and restricted the capacity for an effective medical response. To prevent further such crises, the global public health community has a responsibility to advocate for health system investment and development and for fundamental pro-poor changes to economic and power relations in the region. © The Author(s) 2015.

Clinical conundrums and challenges during geriatric orthopedic emergency surgeries

PubMed Central

Bajwa, Sukhminder Jit Singh

2015-01-01

Despite so many advancements and innovations in anesthetic techniques, expectations and challenges have also grown in plenty. Cardiac, pediatric, obstetric and neuro-anesthesia have perfectly developed to fulfill the desired needs of respective patient population. However, geriatric anesthesia has been shown a lesser interest in teaching and clinical practices over the years as compared with other anesthetic sub-specialties. The large growing geriatric population globally is also associated with an increase number of elderly patients presenting for orthopedic emergency surgeries. Orthopedic emergency surgery in geriatric population is not only a daunting clinical challenge but also has numerous socio-behavioral and economic ramifications. Decision making in anesthesia is largely influenced by the presence of co-morbidities, neuro-cognitive functions and the current socio-behavioral status. Pre-anesthetic evaluation and optimization are extremely important for a better surgical outcome but is limited by time constraints during emergency surgery. The current review aims to highlight comprehensively the various clinical, social, behavioral and psychological aspects during pre-anesthetic evaluation associated with emergency orthopedic surgery in geriatric population. PMID:25810963

Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, J.; Heinke, J.; Gerten, D.; Haddeland, I.; Arnell, N. W.; Clark, D. B.; Dankers, R.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B. M.; Colon-Gonzalez, F. J.; Gosling, S. N.; KIM, H.; Liu, X.; Masaki, Y.; Portmann, F. T.; Satoh, Y.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; albrecht, T.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Kabat, P.

2013-12-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. In the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models (GCMs) and the latest greenhouse--gas concentration scenarios (RCPs) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that up to a global warming of 2°C above present (approx. 2.7°C above pre--industrial), each additional degree of warming will confront an additional approx. 7% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources; and that climate change will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500m3/capita/year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared to the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between present--day and 2°C, while indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2°C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both GCMs and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. Relative change in annual discharge at 2°C compared to present-day, under RCP8.5, from an ensemble of 11 global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by five global climate models (GCMs). Color hues show the multi-model mean change, and saturation shows the agreement on the sign of change across all GHM-GCM combinations (percentage of model runs agreeing on the sign).

Population-specific variation in haplotype composition and heterozygosity at the POLB locus.

PubMed

Yamtich, Jennifer; Speed, William C; Straka, Eva; Kidd, Judith R; Sweasy, Joann B; Kidd, Kenneth K

2009-05-01

DNA polymerase beta plays a central role in base excision repair (BER), which removes large numbers of endogenous DNA lesions from each cell on a daily basis. Little is currently known about germline polymorphisms within the POLB locus, making it difficult to study the association of variants at this locus with human diseases such as cancer. Yet, approximately thirty percent of human tumor types show variants of DNA polymerase beta. We have assessed the global frequency distributions of coding and common non-coding SNPs in and flanking the POLB gene for a total of 14 sites typed in approximately 2400 individuals from anthropologically defined human populations worldwide. We have found a marked difference between haplotype frequencies in African populations and in non-African populations.

Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of potential non-synchronous cessation.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Hampton, Lee M; Thompson, Kimberly M

2016-05-26

The endgame for polio eradication involves coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) with cessation of serotype 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) implemented in late April and early May 2016 and cessation of serotypes 1 and 3 OPV (OPV13 cessation) currently planned for after 2018. The logistics associated with globally switching all use of trivalent OPV (tOPV) to bivalent OPV (bOPV) represent a significant undertaking, which may cause some complications, including delays that lead to different timing of the switch across shared borders. Building on an integrated global model for long-term poliovirus risk management, we consider the expected vulnerability of different populations to transmission of OPV2-related polioviruses as a function of time following the switch. We explore the relationship between the net reproduction number (Rn) of OPV2 at the time of the switch and the time until OPV2-related viruses imported from countries still using OPV2 can establish transmission. We also analyze some specific situations modeled after populations at high potential risk of circulating serotype 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreaks in the event of a non-synchronous switch. Well-implemented tOPV immunization activities prior to the tOPV to bOPV switch (i.e., tOPV intensification sufficient to prevent the creation of indigenous cVDPV2 outbreaks) lead to sufficient population immunity to transmission to cause die-out of any imported OPV2-related viruses for over 6 months after the switch in all populations in the global model. Higher Rn of OPV2 at the time of the switch reduces the time until imported OPV2-related viruses can establish transmission and increases the time during which indigenous OPV2-related viruses circulate. Modeling specific connected populations suggests a relatively low vulnerability to importations of OPV2-related viruses that could establish transmission in the context of a non-synchronous switch from tOPV to bOPV, unless the gap between switch times becomes very long (>6 months) or a high risk of indigenous cVDPV2s already exists in the importing and/or the exporting population. Short national discrepancies in the timing of the tOPV to bOPV switch will likely not significantly increase cVDPV2 risks due to the insurance provided by tOPV intensification efforts, although the goal to coordinate national switches within the globally agreed April 17-May 1, 2016 time window minimized the risks associated with cross-border importations.

Immigrant and Refugee Students across "Receiving" Nations: To What Extent Can Educators Rely on PISA for Answers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubinstein-Avila, Eliane

2016-01-01

Massive population shift is a current global reality--especially given some of the latest development on European shores; some are calling it a humanitarian crisis. Although the United States (US) receives a large number of immigrants (documented and not) and about 70,000 refugees each year, it is certainly not the only nation to do so.…

Neglected tropical diseases: is it time to add Helicobacter pylori to the list?

PubMed

Natuzzi, Eileen

2013-09-01

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) disproportionately affect disadvantaged populations as the 2012 World Health Organization (WHO) report on the global impact of NTDs points out. The same social determinants that impact the prevalence of the 17 current NTDs: inadequate drinking water and sanitation, crowded living conditions, environmental impacts on food and water, ethnicity as well as poverty contribute to Helicobacter pylori infections worldwide.

Estimating fine-scale land use change dynamics using an expedient photointerpretation-based method

Treesearch

Tonya Lister; Andrew Lister; Eunice Alexander

2009-01-01

Population growth and urban expansion have resulted in the loss of forest land. With growing concerns about this loss and its implications for global processes and carbon budgets, there is a great need for detailed and reliable land use change data. Currently, the Northern Research Station uses an Annual Inventory design whereby all plots are revisited every 5 years...

Climate-induced migration of native tree populations and consequences for forest composition

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Martin A. Spetich; Roger W. Perry; James D. Haywood; Shelby Gull Laird; Stacy L. Clark; Justin L. Hart; Scott J. Torreano; Megan L. Buchanan

2014-01-01

The climate of the 13 Southern United States is generally thought to be changing in response to global and continental scale influences; and by 2060, average annual temperature is predicted to be higher and precipitation lower than for the year 2000, the date defined as current for the purposes of this analysis (Figure 10.1). Some southern forest species and...

Occupational exposure to Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Legal issues in workers' compensation.

PubMed

Evenson, W

1999-08-01

Occupational exposure to TB remains a significant threat in select high risk occupations despite 5 years of declining disease incidence rates in the United States. TB kills more people on a global scale than any other infectious disease. One third of the global population is currently infected with TB. Workers' compensation insurance may be inadequate to cover lost wages and medical bills in cases of occupational exposure to TB if the source patient is unknown. There is a need to reform state laws for workers' compensation so TB infections in high risk employees are presumed to be work related unless a community exposure to the disease is identified.

Understanding Cultural Influences on Dietary Habits in Asian, Middle Eastern, and Latino Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Review of Current Literature and Future Directions.

PubMed

Mora, Natalie; Golden, Sherita Hill

2017-10-23

This review focuses on evaluating and identifying gaps in the current literature regarding culturally specific dietary influences for patients with type 2 diabetes. As this topic has previously been examined in African American populations, we chose to focus on four other distinct populations (Hispanic, Middle Eastern, Western Pacific, South Asian). Given the rapid increase in global rates of type 2 diabetes and high rates of diabetes among certain ethnic groups, it is important to understand how culturally adapted strategies in diabetes management have been described in different regions and populations. The specific role of nutrition in controlling diabetes is tied to cultural habits and customs. Variation in cultural practices, including diet, create unique environments in which patients with diabetes must navigate. The role of family, particularly among Hispanics, is crucial to cultural adaptations of diabetes management. Incorporating alternative medicine, namely observed in Chinese and Indian populations, also guided diabetes care strategies. Language barriers, health literacy, and acculturation were all unique factors affecting cultural approaches to diabetes management in these four populations. Understanding such cultural determinants is crucial to addressing diabetes disparities and improving outcomes.

Terrestrial pesticide exposure of amphibians: an underestimated cause of global decline?

PubMed

Brühl, Carsten A; Schmidt, Thomas; Pieper, Silvia; Alscher, Annika

2013-01-01

Amphibians, a class of animals in global decline, are present in agricultural landscapes characterized by agrochemical inputs. Effects of pesticides on terrestrial life stages of amphibians such as juvenile and adult frogs, toads and newts are little understood and a specific risk assessment for pesticide exposure, mandatory for other vertebrate groups, is currently not conducted. We studied the effects of seven pesticide products on juvenile European common frogs (Rana temporaria) in an agricultural overspray scenario. Mortality ranged from 100% after one hour to 40% after seven days at the recommended label rate of currently registered products. The demonstrated toxicity is alarming and a large-scale negative effect of terrestrial pesticide exposure on amphibian populations seems likely. Terrestrial pesticide exposure might be underestimated as a driver of their decline calling for more attention in conservation efforts and the risk assessment procedures in place do not protect this vanishing animal group.

Toward a new architecture for global mental health.

PubMed

Kirmayer, Laurence J; Pedersen, Duncan

2014-12-01

Current efforts in global mental health (GMH) aim to address the inequities in mental health between low-income and high-income countries, as well as vulnerable populations within wealthy nations (e.g., indigenous peoples, refugees, urban poor). The main strategies promoted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other allies have been focused on developing, implementing, and evaluating evidence-based practices that can be scaled up through task-shifting and other methods to improve access to services or interventions and reduce the global treatment gap for mental disorders. Recent debates on global mental health have raised questions about the goals and consequences of current approaches. Some of these critiques emphasize the difficulties and potential dangers of applying Western categories, concepts, and interventions given the ways that culture shapes illness experience. The concern is that in the urgency to address disparities in global health, interventions that are not locally relevant and culturally consonant will be exported with negative effects including inappropriate diagnoses and interventions, increased stigma, and poor health outcomes. More fundamentally, exclusive attention to mental disorders identified by psychiatric nosologies may shift attention from social structural determinants of health that are among the root causes of global health disparities. This paper addresses these critiques and suggests how the GMH movement can respond through appropriate modes of community-based practice and ongoing research, while continuing to work for greater equity and social justice in access to effective, socially relevant, culturally safe and appropriate mental health care on a global scale. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Wessells, K Ryan; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel

2015-10-01

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in important food crops. Zinc deficiency is currently responsible for large burdens of disease globally, and the populations who are at highest risk of zinc deficiency also receive most of their dietary zinc from crops. By modelling dietary intake of bioavailable zinc for the populations of 188 countries under both an ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 scenario, we sought to estimate the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global risk of zinc deficiency. We estimated per capita per day bioavailable intake of zinc for the populations of 188 countries at ambient CO2 concentrations (375-384 ppm) using food balance sheet data for 2003-07 from the Food and Agriculture Organization. We then used previously published data from free air CO2 enrichment and open-top chamber experiments to model zinc intake at elevated CO2 concentrations (550 ppm, which is the concentration expected by 2050). Estimates developed by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group were used for country-specific theoretical mean daily per-capita physiological requirements for zinc. Finally, we used these data on zinc bioavailability and population-weighted estimated average zinc requirements to estimate the risk of inadequate zinc intake among the populations of the different nations under the two scenarios (ambient and elevated CO2). The difference between the population at risk at elevated and ambient CO2 concentrations (ie, population at new risk of zinc deficiency) was our measure of impact. The total number of people estimated to be placed at new risk of zinc deficiency by 2050 was 138 million (95% CI 120-156). The people likely to be most affected live in Africa and South Asia, with nearly 48 million (32-63) residing in India alone. Global maps of increased risk show significant heterogeneity. Our results indicate that one heretofore unquantified human health effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be a significant increase in the human population at risk of zinc deficiency. Our country-specific findings can be used to help guide interventions aimed at reducing this vulnerability. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Winslow Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Myers et al. Open access article published under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Pseudorabies virus in wild swine: a global perspective.

PubMed

Müller, T; Hahn, E C; Tottewitz, F; Kramer, M; Klupp, B G; Mettenleiter, T C; Freuling, C

2011-10-01

Suid herpesvirus 1 (SuHV1, syn. Aujeszky's disease virus [ADV] or pseudorabies virus [PrV]), which belongs to the family Herpesviridae, subfamily Alphaherpesvirinae, genus Varicellovirus is the causative agent of Aujeszky's disease (AD, pseudorabies), a notifiable disease, that causes substantial economic losses to the swine industry in countries, where AD is present. Members of the family Suidae (true pigs) are the only natural hosts for PrV, although the virus can infect numerous other mammals including ruminants, carnivores and rodents. Despite the tremendous progress that has been made in controlling and eliminating PrV in domestic pigs, there is mounting evidence that PrV infections are more widespread in wild swine across the world than originally thought. Unfortunately, our understanding of the extent of PrV infections in these wild populations and of the threat to domestic swine is still fragmentary. This review aims at giving a global perspective on PrV infections in wild swine by scrutinizing the current state of knowledge concerning (i) the global occurrence of PrV infections in free-living populations of wild swine, e.g., wild boar and feral swine, (ii) the molecular characterization of wild swine PrV, (iii) infection characteristics of PrV in populations of wild swine, (iv) the risk of spillover infections to domestic pigs, (v) potential risk-mitigating measures, focusing on further research needs.

The interplay of homing and dispersal in green turtles: a focus on the southwestern atlantic.

PubMed

Naro-Maciel, Eugenia; Bondioli, Ana Cristina Vigliar; Martin, Meredith; de Pádua Almeida, Antônio; Baptistotte, Cecília; Bellini, Claudio; Marcovaldi, Maria Ângela; Santos, Armando José Barsante; Amato, George

2012-01-01

Current understanding of spatial ecology is insufficient in many threatened marine species, failing to provide a solid basis for conservation and management. To address this issue for globally endangered green turtles, we investigated their population distribution by sequencing a mitochondrial control region segment from the Rocas Atoll courtship area (n = 30 males) and four feeding grounds (FGs) in Brazil (n = 397), and compared our findings to published data (n (nesting) = 1205; n (feeding) = 1587). At Rocas Atoll, the first Atlantic courtship area sequenced to date, we found males were differentiated from local juveniles but not from nesting females. In combination with tag data, this indicates possible male philopatry. The most common haplotypes detected at the study sites were CMA-08 and CMA-05, and significant temporal variation was not revealed. Although feeding grounds were differentiated overall, intra-regional structure was less pronounced. Ascension was the primary natal source of the study FGs, with Surinam and Trindade as secondary sources. The study clarified the primary connectivity between Trindade and Brazil. Possible linkages to African populations were considered, but there was insufficient resolution to conclusively determine this connection. The distribution of FG haplotype lineages was nonrandom and indicative of regional clustering. The study investigated impacts of population size, geographic distance, ocean currents, and juvenile natal homing on connectivity, addressed calls for increased genetic sampling in the southwestern Atlantic, and provided data important for conservation of globally endangered green turtles.

Wolf-Rayet content of the Milky Way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowther, P. A.

An overview of the known Wolf-Rayet (WR) population of the Milky Way is presented, including a brief overview of historical catalogues and recent advances based on infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations resulting in the current census of 642 (vl.13 online catalogue). The observed distribution of WR stars is considered with respect to known star clusters, given that ≤20% of WR stars in the disk are located in clusters. WN stars outnumber WC stars at all galactocentric radii, while early-type WC stars are strongly biased against the inner Milky Way. Finally, recent estimates of the global WR population in the Milky Way are reassessed, with 1,200±100 estimated, such that the current census may be 50% complete. A characteristic WR lifetime of 0.25 Myr is inferred for an initial mass threshold of 25 M⊙.

Globally Happy: Individual Globalization, Expanded Capacities, and Subjective Wellbeing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsai, Ming-Chang; Chang, Heng-Hao; Chen, Wan-chi

2012-01-01

Deep integration of Asia into the global society necessarily affects wellbeing of local populations. This study proposes a notion of "extend capacities" to explain the relationships between individual globalization and subjective wellbeing among Asian populations in a context of increasing global integration. Using Amartya Sen's theory…

Public Health Crisis: the Need for Primary Prevention in Failed and Fragile States.

PubMed

Quinn, John; Stoeva, Preslava; Zelený, Tomáš; Nanda, Toozy; Tomanová, Alžběta; Bencko, Vladimír

2017-09-01

A new 'normal' in global affairs may be erupting from large global powers to that of non-state actors and proxies committing violence through scaled conflict in a post-Westphalian world generating significant global health policy challenges. Health security of populations are multifactorial and indirectly proportional to war, conflict and disaster. Preventing conflict and avoiding the health vacuum that occurs in war and violence may be best practices for policy makers. This paper considers an approach of applying clinical primary prevention principles to global health policy. Brief policy review of current standards and practices in health security in fragile and failed states and prevention; and definitions discussion. A short case study series are presented with best practices, with risk and outcome review. The global balance of power and order may be shifting through geopolitical transference and inadequate action by major global power brokers. Health security in at risk nation-states may be decreasing as a result. Small scale conflict with large-scale violence threatens health security and may experience increased incidence and prevalence in fragile and failed states. Preventative policy to resuscitate fragile and failed states and prevent further external and internal shocks may support health and promote a positive feedback loop of further state stability and increased health security. Public health policy shift to mitigate state failure and public health crisis in war and conflict through the basis of primary prevention may provide best practices and maximize health security for at risk populations. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Global influences on milk purchasing in New Zealand – implications for health and inequalities

PubMed Central

Smith, Moira B; Signal, Louise

2009-01-01

Background Economic changes and policy reforms, consistent with economic globalization, in New Zealand in the mid-1980s, combined with the recent global demand for dairy products, particularly from countries undergoing a 'nutrition transition', have created an environment where a proportion of the New Zealand population is now experiencing financial difficulty purchasing milk. This situation has the potential to adversely affect health. Discussion Similar to other developed nations, widening income disparities and health inequalities have resulted from economic globalization in New Zealand; with regard to nutrition, a proportion of the population now faces food poverty. Further, rates of overweight/obesity and chronic diseases have increased in recent decades, primarily affecting indigenous people and lower socio-economic groups. Economic globalization in New Zealand has changed the domestic milk supply with regard to the consumer and may shed light on the link between globalization, nutrition and health outcomes. This paper describes the economic changes in New Zealand, specifically in the dairy market and discusses how these changes have the potential to create inequalities and adverse health outcomes. The implications for the success of current policy addressing chronic health outcomes is discussed, alternative policy options such as subsidies, price controls or alteration of taxation of recommended foods relative to 'unhealthy' foods are presented and the need for further research is considered. Summary Changes in economic ideology in New Zealand have altered the focus of policy development, from social to commercial. To achieve equity in health and improve access to social determinants of health, such as healthy nutrition, policy-makers must give consideration to health outcomes when developing and implementing economic policy, both national and global. PMID:19152688

Proceedings of the 2015 international summit on fibropapillomatosis: Global status, trends, and population impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hargrove, Stacy A.; Work, Thierry M.; Brunson, Shandell; Foley, Allen M.; Balazs, George H.

2016-01-01

The 2015 International Summit on Fibropapillomatosis (FP) was convened in Honolulu, Hawaii June 11-14, 2015. Scientists from around the world were invited to present results from sea turtle monitoring and research programs as they relate to the global status, trends, and population impacts of FP on green turtles. The participants engaged in discussions that resulted in the following conclusions: 1.Globally, FP has long been present in wild sea turtle populations the earliest mention was in the late 1800s in the Florida Keys. 2.FP primarily affects medium-sized immature turtles in coastal foraging pastures. 3.Expression of FP differs across ocean basins and to some degree within basins. Turtles in the Southeast US, Caribbean, Brazil, and Australia rarely have oral tumors (inside the mouth cavity), whereas they are common and often severe in Hawaii. Internal tumors (on vital organs) occur in the Atlantic and Hawaii, but only rarely in Australia. Liver tumors are common in Florida but not in Hawaii. 4.Recovery from FP through natural processes, when the affliction is not severe, has been documented in wild populations globally. 5.FP causes reduced survivorship, but documented mortality rates in Australia and Hawaii are low. The mortality impact of FP is not currently exceeding population growth rates in some intensively monitored populations (e.g., Florida, Hawaii) as evidenced by increasing nesting trends despite the incidence of FP in immature foraging populations. 6.Pathogens, hosts, and potential disease and environmental cofactors have the capacity to change; while we are having success now, there needs to be continued monitoring to detect changes in the distribution, occurrence, and severity of the disease. 7.While we do not have clear evidence to provide the direct link, globally, the preponderance of sites with a high frequency of FP tumors are areas with some degree of degradation resulting from altered watersheds. Watershed management and responsible coastal development may be the best approach for reducing the spread and prevalence of the disease. 8.Future research efforts should employ a multi-factorial ecological approach (e.g., virology, parasitology, genetics, health, diet, habitat use, water quality, etc.) since there are likely several environmental cofactors involved in the expression of the disease, which is still thought to be caused by a herpesvirus. 9.Minimum FP data collection in new areas should include: individual identification (photo ID, PIT tags, etc.), standard measurements (length and weight), presence/absence of tumors, tumor severity, body condition, oral examination, method of capture, and effort

Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake.

PubMed

Brischoux, François; Cotté, Cédric; Lillywhite, Harvey B; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

2016-08-01

It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. © 2016 The Author(s).

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

PubMed

Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

2012-10-02

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

PubMed Central

Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

2012-01-01

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr−1), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses. PMID:22988086

Insecticide-driven patterns of genetic variation in the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Martinique Island.

PubMed

Marcombe, Sébastien; Paris, Margot; Paupy, Christophe; Bringuier, Charline; Yebakima, André; Chandre, Fabrice; David, Jean-Philippe; Corbel, Vincent; Despres, Laurence

2013-01-01

Effective vector control is currently challenged worldwide by the evolution of resistance to all classes of chemical insecticides in mosquitoes. In Martinique, populations of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti have been intensively treated with temephos and deltamethrin insecticides over the last fifty years, resulting in heterogeneous levels of resistance across the island. Resistance spreading depends on standing genetic variation, selection intensity and gene flow among populations. To determine gene flow intensity, we first investigated neutral patterns of genetic variability in sixteen populations representative of the many environments found in Martinique and experiencing various levels of insecticide pressure, using 6 microsatellites. Allelic richness was lower in populations resistant to deltamethrin, and consanguinity was higher in populations resistant to temephos, consistent with a negative effect of insecticide pressure on neutral genetic diversity. The global genetic differentiation was low, suggesting high gene flow among populations, but significant structure was found, with a pattern of isolation-by-distance at the global scale. Then, we investigated adaptive patterns of divergence in six out of the 16 populations using 319 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Five SNP outliers displaying levels of genetic differentiation out of neutral expectations were detected, including the kdr-V1016I mutation in the voltage-gated sodium channel gene. Association tests revealed a total of seven SNPs associated with deltamethrin resistance. Six other SNPs were associated with temephos resistance, including two non-synonymous substitutions in an alkaline phosphatase and in a sulfotransferase respectively. Altogether, both neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic variation in mosquito populations appear to be largely driven by insecticide pressure in Martinique.

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watters, Thomas R.; Weber, Renee C.; Collins, Geoffrey C.; Johnson, Catherine L.

2017-01-01

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps are very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress. Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and may produce thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. At any particular point on the lunar surface, peak compressive stress will be reached at a certain time in the diurnal cycle. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we report efforts to refine the model for the current stress state of the Moon by investigating the contribution of polar wander. Progress on relocating the epicentral locations of the shallow moonquakes using an algorithm designed for sparse networks is also reported.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-04-05

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

A genetic algorithm based global search strategy for population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model selection

PubMed Central

Sale, Mark; Sherer, Eric A

2015-01-01

The current algorithm for selecting a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model is based on the well-established forward addition/backward elimination method. A central strength of this approach is the opportunity for a modeller to continuously examine the data and postulate new hypotheses to explain observed biases. This algorithm has served the modelling community well, but the model selection process has essentially remained unchanged for the last 30 years. During this time, more robust approaches to model selection have been made feasible by new technology and dramatic increases in computation speed. We review these methods, with emphasis on genetic algorithm approaches and discuss the role these methods may play in population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model selection. PMID:23772792

Climate Change and Developing-Country Cities: Implications For Environmental Health and Equity

PubMed Central

Corvalán, Carlos

2007-01-01

Climate change is an emerging threat to global public health. It is also highly inequitable, as the greatest risks are to the poorest populations, who have contributed least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The rapid economic development and the concurrent urbanization of poorer countries mean that developing-country cities will be both vulnerable to health hazards from climate change and, simultaneously, an increasing contributor to the problem. We review the specific health vulnerabilities of urban populations in developing countries and highlight the range of large direct health effects of energy policies that are concentrated in urban areas. Common vulnerability factors include coastal location, exposure to the urban heat-island effect, high levels of outdoor and indoor air pollution, high population density, and poor sanitation. There are clear opportunities for simultaneously improving health and cutting GHG emissions most obviously through policies related to transport systems, urban planning, building regulations and household energy supply. These influence some of the largest current global health burdens, including approximately 800,000 annual deaths from ambient urban air pollution, 1.2 million from road-traffic accidents, 1.9 million from physical inactivity, and 1.5 million per year from indoor air pollution. GHG emissions and health protection in developing-country cities are likely to become increasingly prominent in policy development. There is a need for a more active input from the health sector to ensure that development and health policies contribute to a preventive approach to local and global environmental sustainability, urban population health, and health equity. PMID:17393341

Shining India?: Assessing and addressing the risks from an unsustainable trajectory of climate, water, food, energy and income inequity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2012-12-01

Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.

The need for agriculture phenotyping: "moving from genotype to phenotype".

PubMed

Boggess, Mark V; Lippolis, John D; Hurkman, William J; Fagerquist, Clifton K; Briggs, Steve P; Gomes, Aldrin V; Righetti, Pier Giorgio; Bala, Kumar

2013-11-20

Increase in the world population has called for the increased demand for agricultural productivity. Traditional methods to augment crop and animal production are facing exacerbating pressures in keeping up with population growth. This challenge has in turn led to the transformational change in the use of biotechnology tools to meet increased productivity for both plant and animal systems. Although many challenges exist, the use of proteomic techniques to understand agricultural problems is steadily increasing. This review discusses the impact of genomics, proteomics, metabolomics and phenotypes on plant, animal and bacterial systems to achieve global food security and safety and we highlight examples of intra and extra mural research work that is currently being done to increase agricultural productivity. This review focuses on the global demand for increased agricultural productivity arising from population growth and how we can address this challenge using biotechnology. With a population well above seven billion humans, in a very unbalanced nutritional state (20% overweight, 20% risking starvation) drastic measures have to be taken at the political, infrastructure and scientific levels. While we cannot influence politics, it is our duty as scientists to see what can be done to feed humanity. Hence we highlight the transformational change in the use of biotechnology tools over traditional methods to increase agricultural productivity (plant and animal). Specifically, this review deals at length on how a three-pronged attack, namely combined genomics, proteomics and metabolomics, can help to ensure global food security and safety. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Translational Plant Proteomics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Epidemiology of HIV Among Women and Girls Who Use or Inject Drugs: Current Knowledge and Limitations of Existing Data.

PubMed

Larney, Sarah; Mathers, Bradley M; Poteat, Tonia; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Degenhardt, Louisa

2015-06-01

Women and girls who use and inject drugs are a critical population at risk of HIV. In this article, we review data on the epidemiology of drug use and injection among women globally and HIV prevalence among women and girls who use and inject drugs. Women and girls comprise one-third of people who use and inject drugs globally. There is substantial variation in HIV prevalence in this population, between and within countries. There is a pronounced lack of data examining HIV risk among particularly vulnerable subpopulations of women who use and inject drugs, including women who have sex with women, transgender women, racial and ethnic minority women, and young women. Women who use and inject drugs experience stigma and discrimination that affect access to services, and high levels of sexual risk exposures. There are significant gaps in our understanding of the epidemiology of drug use and injecting among women and girls and HIV risk and prevalence in this population. Women are frequently underrepresented in studies of drug use and HIV risk and prevalence among people who inject drugs, limiting our understanding of possible sex differences in this population. Most research originates from developed countries and may not be generalizable to other settings. A great deal of work is needed to improve understanding of HIV among particularly vulnerable subpopulations, such as transgender women who use drugs. Better data are critical to efforts to advocate for the needs of women and girls who use and inject drugs.

Landscape connectivity among remnant populations of guanaco (Lama guanicoe Müller, 1776) in an arid region of Chile impacted by global change.

PubMed

Espinosa, Mara I; Gouin, Nicolas; Squeo, Francisco A; López, David; Bertin, Angéline

2018-01-01

Connectivity between populations plays a key role in the long-term persistence of species in fragmented habitats. This is of particular concern for biodiversity preservation in drylands, since water limited landscapes are typically characterized by little suitable habitat cover, high habitat fragmentation, harsh matrices, and are being rapidly degraded at a global scale. In this study, we modelled landscape connectivity between 11 guanaco Lama guanicoe populations in Chile's arid Norte Chico, a region that supports the last remnant coastal populations of this emblematic herbivore indigenous to South America. We produced a habitat suitability model to derive a regional surface resistance map, and used circuit theory to map functional connectivity, investigate the relative isolation between populations, and identify those that contribute most to the patch connectivity network. Predicted suitable habitat for L. guanicoe represented about 25% of the study region (i.e., 29,173 km 2 ) and was heterogeneously distributed along a continuous stretch along the Andes, and discontinuous patches along the coast. As a result, we found that high connectivity current flows in the mid and high Andes formed a wide, continuous connectivity corridor, enabling connectivity between all high Andean populations. Coastal populations, in contrast, were more isolated. These groups demonstrate no inter-population connectivity between themselves, only with higher altitude populations, and for two of them, animal movement was linked to the effectiveness of wildlife crossings along the Pan-American highway. Our results indicate that functional connectivity is an issue of concern for L. guanicoe in Chile's Norte Chico, implying that future conservation and management plans should emphasize strategies aimed at conserving functional connectivity between coastal and Andean populations, as well as the protection of habitat patches likely to act as stepping stones within the connectivity network.

Global implications of China's healthcare reform.

PubMed

Yan, Fei; Tang, Shenglan; Zhang, Jian

2016-01-01

The ongoing healthcare reform in China has a powerful spillover effect beyond the health sector and the borders of China. A successful completion of the Chinese reform will offer a new model for social justice development, shift the global economy toward sustainability and create a new hub for science and technology in medical and health science. However, reforming the healthcare system in the most populated country is a daunting task. China will not live up to its promise, and all the potentials may end with hype not hope if coherent national strategies are not constructed and state-of-the-art navigation is not achieved with staggering domestic and global challenges. The cost of failure will be immensely high, socioeconomic costs for Chinese and an opportunity cost for the world as a whole. A full appreciation of the global implications of China's healthcare reform is crucial in keeping China receptive toward good practices evidence-approved elsewhere and open minded to fulfill its international obligations. More critically, the appreciation yields constructive engagements from global community toward a joint development and global prosperity. The current report provides a multiple disciplinary assessment on the global implications of the healthcare reform in China. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experimental evolution reveals high insecticide tolerance in Daphnia inhabiting farmland ponds

PubMed Central

Jansen, Mieke; Coors, Anja; Vanoverbeke, Joost; Schepens, Melissa; De Voogt, Pim; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; De Meester, Luc

2015-01-01

Exposure of nontarget populations to agricultural chemicals is an important aspect of global change. We quantified the capacity of natural Daphnia magna populations to locally adapt to insecticide exposure through a selection experiment involving carbaryl exposure and a control. Carbaryl tolerance after selection under carbaryl exposure did not increase significantly compared to the tolerance of the original field populations. However, there was evolution of a decreased tolerance in the control experimental populations compared to the original field populations. The magnitude of this decrease was positively correlated with land use intensity in the neighbourhood of the ponds from which the original populations were sampled. The genetic change in carbaryl tolerance in the control rather than in the carbaryl treatment suggests widespread selection for insecticide tolerance in the field associated with land use intensity and suggests that this evolution comes at a cost. Our data suggest a strong impact of current agricultural land use on nontarget natural Daphnia populations. PMID:26029258

Surgical aspects of pulmonary tuberculosis: an update.

PubMed

Dewan, Ravindra Kumar; Pezzella, A Thomas

2016-10-01

Tuberculosis remains a major global medical challenge and concern. In the world's population of over 7.4 billion people, 8.6 million are estimated to be infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis; another 2.2 billion have latent tuberculosis. There is an annual incidence of 16,000 new cases in the USA and 7-8 million new cases worldwide, of which 440,000 are multidrug-resistant or extensively multidrug-resistant, mainly in developing countries or emerging economies. According to the World Health Organization, the incidence of tuberculosis is 133 cases per 100,000 of the population; 3.3% new cases are drug resistant and 20% are already treated cases. Of the drug-resistant cases, 9.7% are extensively drug-resistant. The annual global mortality attributable to tuberculosis is over 1.3 million people. The association with HIV/AIDS in 430,000 people has compounded the global concern and challenge. This review presents the historical indications for surgical treatment of tuberculosis, reviews the current literature and clinical experience, and collates this into increased awareness and contemporary understanding of the indications and need for surgery in primary active tuberculosis, adjuvant surgical therapy for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, and the complications of chronic tuberculosis sequelae or previous tuberculosis surgery. © The Author(s) 2016.

Monitoring the change of coastal zones from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.; Le Cozannet, G.; Benveniste, J.; Woodworth, P. L.

2017-12-01

The world's coastal zones, where an important fraction of the world population is currently living, are under serious threat because of coastal erosion, cyclones, storms, and salinization of estuaries and coastal aquifers. In the future, these hazards are expected to increase due to the combined effects of sea level rise, climate change, human activities and population increase. The response of coastal environments to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors (including climate change) depends on the characteristics of the forcing agents, as well as on the internal properties of the coastal systems, that remain poorly known and mostly un-surveyed at global scale. To better understand changes affecting coastal zones and to provide useful information to decision makers, various types of observations with global coverage need to be collected and analysed. Observations from space appear as an important complement to existing in situ observing systems (e.g., regional tide gauge networks). In this presentation, we discuss the benefit of systematic coastal monitoring from space, addressing both observations of forcing agents and of the coastal response. We highlight the need for a global coastal sea level data set based on retracked nadir altimetry missions and new SAR technology.

Global Rice Watch: Spatial-temporal dynamics, driving factors, and impacts of paddy rice agriculture in the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, X.; Dong, J.; Zhang, G.; Xin, F.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Paddy rice croplands account for more than 12% of the global cropland areas, and provide food to feed more than 50% of the world population. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands have changed remarkably in the past decades, driven by growing human population and their changing diet structure, land use (e.g., urbanization, industrialization), climate, markets, and technologies. In this presentation, we will provide a comprehensive review of our current knowledge on (1) the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands from agricultural statistics data and remote sensing approaches; (2) major driving factors for the observed changes in paddy rice areas, including social, economic, climate, land use, markets, crop breeding technology, and farming technology; and (3) major impacts on atmospheric methane concentration, land surface temperature, water resources and use, and so on. We will highlight the results from a few case studies in China and monsoon Asia. We will also call for a global synthesis analysis of paddy rice agriculture, and invite researchers to join the effort to write and edit a book that provides comprehensive and updated knowledge on paddy rice agriculture.

The Syrian public health and humanitarian crisis: A 'displacement' in global governance?

PubMed

Akbarzada, Sumaira; Mackey, Tim K

2018-07-01

Ongoing failure by the international community to resolve the Syrian conflict has led to destruction of critical infrastructure. This includes the collapse of the Syrian health system, leaving millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in urgent need of healthcare services. As the conflict intensifies, IDP populations are suffering from infectious and non-communicable disease risks, poor maternal and child health outcomes, trauma, and mental health issues, while healthcare workers continually exit the country. Healthcare workers who remain face significant challenges, including systematic attacks on healthcare facilities and conditions that severely inhibit healthcare delivery and assistance. Within this conflict-driven public health crisis, the most susceptible population is arguably the IDP. Though the fundamental 'right to health' is a recognised international legal principle, its application is inadequate due to limited recognition by the UN Security Council and stymied global governance by the broader international community. These factors have also negatively impacted other vulnerable groups other than IDPs, such as refugees and ethnic minorities, who may or may not be displaced. Hence, this article reviews the current Syrian conflict, assesses challenges with local and global governance for IDPs, and explores potential governance solutions needed to address this health and humanitarian crisis.

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Adoption and Diffusion of Information and Communication Technology in the Base of the Pyramid Population of Sub-Saharan Africa: A Study of Nigerian University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Etim, Alice Sunday

2010-01-01

The global environment is a complex network of people who are grouped using different types of information. In each country, people are grouped based on such information as age, race, ethnicity, educational qualification, income, occupation, and net worth. These socioeconomic descriptions of people have relevance in our current Information Age.…

[Current approaches to overcoming permethrin resistance in lice].

PubMed

Lopatina, Iu V

2013-01-01

The paper gives information on pediculosis morbidity worldwide. It summarizes the data available in the literature on the resistance of head and clothes lice to pyrethroids and on the mechanisms of this resistance. The formation of head and clothes louse populations resistant to pyrethroids is shown to be a global problem. New groups of chemical substances that are alternatives to pyrethroids and the mechanisms of their action on lice are considered.

Interspecies physiological variation as a tool for cross-species assessments of global warming-induced endangerment: validation of an intrinsic determinant of macroecological and phylogeographic structure.

PubMed

Bernardo, Joseph; Ossola, Ryan J; Spotila, James; Crandall, Keith A

2007-12-22

Global warming is now recognized as the dominant threat to biodiversity because even protected populations and habitats are susceptible. Nonetheless, current criteria for evaluating species' relative endangerment remain purely ecological, and the accepted conservation strategies of habitat preservation and population management assume that species can mount ecological responses if afforded protection. The insidious threat from climate change is that it will attenuate or preclude ecological responses by species that are physiologically constrained; yet, quantitative, objective criteria for assessing relative susceptibility of diverse taxa to warming-induced stress are wanting. We explored the utility of using interspecies physiological variation for this purpose by relating species' physiological phenotypes to landscape patterns of ecological and genetic exchange. Using a salamander model system in which ecological, genetic and physiological diversity are well characterized, we found strong quantitative relationships of basal metabolic rates (BMRs) to both macroecological and phylogeographic patterns, with decreasing BMR leading to dispersal limitation (small contemporary ranges with marked phylogeographic structure). Measures of intrinsic physiological tolerance, which vary systematically with macroecological and phylogeographic patterns, afford objective criteria for assessing endangerment across a wide range of species and should be incorporated into conservation assessment criteria that currently rely exclusively upon ecological predictors.

A case for the protection of saline and hypersaline environments: a microbiological perspective.

PubMed

Paul, Varun G; Mormile, Melanie R

2017-08-01

Saline and hypersaline environments are known for their unique geochemical properties, microbial populations and aesthetic appeal. Microbial activities and a spectrum of diversity seen in hypersaline environments are distinct with many novel species being identified and reported on a regular basis. Many distinguishing characteristics about the adaptation, morphology, evolutionary history, and potential environmental and biotechnological applications of these organisms are continually investigated. An abundance of interdisciplinary activities and opportunities exist to explore and understand the importance of these environments that potentially hold promising solutions for current and future global issues. Therefore, it is critical to conserve these unique environments and limit the damage inflicted by anthropogenic influences. Increased salinization due to water diversions, undesired freshening, extensive mineral extraction, sewage effluents, pollution due to agricultural runoff and industrial processes, urbanization, and global climate change are factors negatively affecting hypersaline lakes and their surrounding environments. If these harmful effects continue to proceed at the current or even accelerated rates, irrevocable consequences for these environments will occur, resulting in the loss of potential opportunities to gain new knowledge of the biogeochemistry as well as beneficial microbial populations closely associated with these unique and interesting environments. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Online-to-offline models in HIV service delivery.

PubMed

Anand, Tarandeep; Nitpolprasert, Chattiya; Phanuphak, Nittaya

2017-09-01

Half the world's population has access to Internet and technologies, and utilization is near-ubiquitous among providers and key populations. Despite being so well connected; identifying, reaching and linking vulnerable populations to HIV clinical services remains a global challenge. This review highlights the emerging online-to-offline (O2O) models, their potential in scaling up services, and evaluating impact, and implications for future research. Globally, four major types of O2O models have been implemented, primarily in the West and Asia, especially among MSM and transgender women. These models have varying levels of impact in terms of reach, engagement, participation, linkage, and ability to track and monitor participants, and assess outcomes. Those integrated with offline sites enable seamless transition, dramatically reduce the O2O linkage time and demonstrate high linkage success (>73%). O2O models are ideal for at-risk, stigmatized, criminalized populations and for scaling-up biomedical prevention interventions such as preexposure and postexposure prophylaxis. O2O models represent novel and powerful solutions to reverse the pandemic and could help fill significant programmatic gaps in tracking individuals through HIV cascades. Providers, especially in resource-limited settings, could choose between a variety of current approaches highlighted in this review and employ no-cost or cost-effective technologies to transform their traditional models and leverage O2O models.

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

PubMed Central

Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2013-01-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

PubMed

Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2015-02-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

The Global Burden of Potential Productivity Loss from Uncorrected Presbyopia.

PubMed

Frick, Kevin D; Joy, Susan M; Wilson, David A; Naidoo, Kovin S; Holden, Brien A

2015-08-01

The onset of presbyopia in middle adulthood results in potential losses in productivity among otherwise healthy adults if uncorrected or undercorrected. The economic burden could be significant in lower-income countries, where up to 94% of cases may be uncorrected or undercorrected. This study estimates the global burden of potential productivity lost because of uncorrected functional presbyopia. Population data from the US Census Bureau were combined with the estimated presbyopia prevalence, age of onset, employment rate, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in current US dollars, and near vision impairment disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study to estimate the global loss of productivity from uncorrected and undercorrected presbyopia in each country in 2011. To allow comparison with earlier work, we also calculated the loss with the conservative assumption that the contribution to productivity extends only up to 50 years of age. The economic modeling did not require the use of subjects. We estimated the number of cases of uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia in each country among the working-age population. The number of working-age cases was multiplied by the labor force participation rate, the employment rate, a disability weight, and the GDP per capita to estimate the potential loss of GDP due to presbyopia. The outcome being measured is the lost productivity in 2011 US dollars resulting from uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia. There were an estimated 1.272 billion cases of presbyopia worldwide in 2011. A total of 244 million cases, uncorrected or undercorrected among people aged <50 years, were associated with a potential productivity loss of US $11.023 billion (0.016% of global GDP). If all those people aged <65 years are assumed to be productive, the potential productivity loss would be US $25.367 billion or 0.037% of global GDP. Correcting presbyopia to the level achieved in Europe would reduce the burden to US $1.390 billion (0.002% of global GDP). Even with conservative assumptions regarding the productive population, presbyopia is a significant burden on productivity, and correction would have a significant impact on productivity in lower-income countries.

Global access to safe water: accounting for water quality and the resulting impact on MDG progress.

PubMed

Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

2012-03-01

Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as "improved" or "unimproved" as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF "Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality". A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator "use of an improved source" suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety.

Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change

PubMed Central

Godber, Olivia F; Wall, Richard

2014-01-01

Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform. PMID:24692268

Medicalization of global health 3: the medicalization of the non-communicable diseases agenda

PubMed Central

Clark, Jocalyn

2014-01-01

There is growing recognition of the massive global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) due to their prevalence, projected social and economic costs, and traditional neglect compared to infectious disease. The 2011 UN Summit, WHO 25×25 targets, and support of major medical and advocacy organisations have propelled prominence of NCDs on the global health agenda. NCDs are by definition ‘diseases’ so already medicalized. But their social drivers and impacts are acknowledged, which demand a broad, whole-of-society approach. However, while both individual- and population-level targets are identified in the current NCD action plans, most recommended strategies tend towards the individualistic approach and do not address root causes of the NCD problem. These so-called population strategies risk being reduced to expectations of individual and behavioural change, which may have limited success and impact and deflect attention away from government policies or regulation of industry. Industry involvement in NCD agenda-setting props up a medicalized approach to NCDs: food and drink companies favour focus on individual choice and responsibility, and pharmaceutical and device companies favour calls for expanded access to medicines and treatment coverage. Current NCD framing creates expanded roles for physicians, healthcare workers, medicines and medical monitoring. The professional rather than the patient view dominates the NCD agenda and there is a lack of a broad, engaged, and independent NGO community. The challenge and opportunity lie in defining priorities and developing strategies that go beyond a narrow medicalized framing of the NCD problem and its solutions. PMID:24848661

Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

PubMed Central

Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

2012-01-01

Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety. PMID:22690170

Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobsen, Judith E.

The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

Socioeconomic inequalities in smoking in The Netherlands before and during the Global Financial Crisis: a repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Benson, Fiona E; Kuipers, Mirte A G; Nierkens, Vera; Bruggink, Jan-Willem; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

2015-05-06

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) increased levels of financial strain, especially in those of low socioeconomic status (SES). Financial strain can affect smoking behaviour. This study examines socioeconomic inequalities in current smoking and smoking cessation in The Netherlands before and during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Participants were 66,960 Dutch adults (≥ 18 years) who took part in the annual national Health Survey (2004-2011). Period was dichotomised: 'pre-' and 'during-GFC'. SES measures used were income, education and neighbourhood deprivation. Outcomes were current smoking rates (smokers/total population) and smoking cessation ratios (former smokers/ever smokers). Multilevel logistic regression models controlled for individual characteristics and tested for interaction between period and SES. In both periods, high SES respondents (in all indicators) had lower current smoking levels and higher cessation ratios than those of middle or low SES. Inequalities in current smoking increased significantly in poorly educated adults of 45-64 years of age (Odds Ratio (OR) low educational level compared with high: 2.00[1.79-2.23] compared to pre-GFC 1.67[1.50-1.86], p for interaction = 0.02). Smoking cessation inequalities by income in 18-30 year olds increased with borderline significance during the GFC (OR low income compared to high income: 0.73[0.58-0.91]) compared to pre-GFC (OR: 0.98[0.80-1.20]), p for interaction = 0.051). Overall, socioeconomic inequalities in current smoking and smoking cessation were unchanged during the GFC. However, current smoking inequalities by education, and smoking cessation inequalities by income, increased in specific age groups. Increased financial strain caused by the crisis may disproportionately affect smoking behaviour in some disadvantaged groups.

Use of 'eradication' in HIV cure-related research: a public health debate.

PubMed

Dubé, Karine; Luter, Stuart; Lesnar, Breanne; Newton, Luke; Galea, Jerome; Brown, Brandon; Gianella, Sara

2018-02-13

The landscape of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) research has changed drastically over the past three decades. With the remarkable success of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in decreasing AIDS-related mortality, some researchers have shifted their HIV research focus from treatment to cure research. The HIV cure research community often uses the term eradication to describe the science, and talks about eradicating the virus from the body. In public discourse, the term eradication could be conflated with disease eradication at the population level. In this paper, we call for a reframing of HIV cure research as control, as it is a more accurate descriptor and achievable goal in the foreseeable future. The properties of HIV are discordant with eradicability standards at both the individual level (as a clinical concept), and at the population level (as a public health concept). At the individual level, true eradication would necessitate absolute elimination of all latent HIV reservoirs from the body. Current HIV cure-related research strategies have proven unsuccessful at accurately quantifying, let alone eliminating these reservoirs. At the population level, eradication implies the permanent global reduction of HIV to zero new cases and to zero risk for future cases. Given the absence of an efficacious HIV vaccine and the impracticality and unethicality of eliminating animal reservoirs, global eradication of HIV is highly implausible. From a public health perspective, HIV eradication remains an elusive goal. The term 'eradication' is a misleading description of current HIV cure-related research. Instead, we call for the use of more realistic expressions such as 'sustained virologic HIV suppression (or control)' or 'management of HIV persistence' to describe HIV cure-related research. Using these terms reorients what HIV cure science can potentially achieve in the near future and avoids creating unrealistic expectations, particularly among the millions of people globally who live with HIV.

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.

2006-12-01

Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models that incorporate fine-scale landscape structure and its changes over time.

Toward a psychology of human survival: Psychological approaches to contemporary global threats

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, R.

Nuclear weapons, population explosion, resource and food-supply depletion, and environmental deterioration have been posing increasing threats to human survival. Moreover, for the first time in history, all these major global threats are human caused and can, therefore, be traced in large part to psychological origins. After a brief overview of the nature and extent of current threats, this paper suggests criteria for an adequate psychology of human survival. The causes and effects of the threats are examined from various psychological perspectives and the psychological principles underlying effective responses are deduced. The ways in which mental health professionals may contribute tomore » this most crucial task are discussed. 76 references.« less

Social Media, Big Data, and Mental Health: Current Advances and Ethical Implications.

PubMed

Conway, Mike; O'Connor, Daniel

2016-06-01

Mental health (including substance abuse) is the fifth greatest contributor to the global burden of disease, with an economic cost estimated to be US $2.5 trillion in 2010, and expected to double by 2030. Developing information systems to support and strengthen population-level mental health monitoring forms a core part of the World Health Organization's Comprehensive Action Plan 2013-2020. In this paper, we review recent work that utilizes social media "big data" in conjunction with associated technologies like natural language processing and machine learning to address pressing problems in population-level mental health surveillance and research, focusing both on technological advances and core ethical challenges.

Built Environment and Elderly Population Health: A Comprehensive Literature Review

PubMed Central

Garin, Noe; Olaya, Beatriz; Miret, Marta; Ayuso-Mateos, Jose Luis; Power, Michael; Bucciarelli, Paola; Haro, Josep Maria

2014-01-01

Global population aging over recent years has been linked to poorer health outcomes and higher healthcare expenditure. Policies focusing on healthy aging are currently being developed but a complete understanding of health determinants is needed to guide these efforts. The built environment and other external factors have been added to the International Classification of Functioning as important determinants of health and disability. Although the relationship between the built environment and health has been widely examined in working age adults, research focusing on elderly people is relatively recent. In this review, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the evidence on the built environment and health in the elderly. PMID:25356084

Integrating Socioeconomic and Earth Science Data Using Geobrowsers and Web Services: A Demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, J. A.; Yetman, G. G.

2007-12-01

The societal benefit areas identified as the focus for the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) 10- year implementation plan are an indicator of the importance of integrating socioeconomic data with earth science data to support decision makers. To aid this integration, CIESIN is delivering its global and U.S. demographic data to commercial and open source Geobrowsers and providing open standards based services for data access. Currently, data on population distribution, poverty, and detailed census data for the U.S. are available for visualization and access in Google Earth, NASA World Wind, and a browser-based 2-dimensional mapping client. The mapping client allows for the creation of web map documents that pull together layers from distributed servers and can be saved and shared. Visualization tools with Geobrowsers, user-driven map creation and sharing via browser-based clients, and a prototype for characterizing populations at risk to predicted precipitation deficits will be demonstrated.

Macroecology Meets Macroeconomics: Resource Scarcity and Global Sustainability

PubMed Central

Brown, James H.; Burger, Joseph R.; Burnside, William R.; Chang, Michael; Davidson, Ana D.; Fristoe, Trevor S.; Hamilton, Marcus J.; Hammond, Sean T.; Kodric-Brown, Astrid; Mercado-Silva, Norman; Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Okie, Jordan G.

2013-01-01

The current economic paradigm, which is based on increasing human population, economic development, and standard of living, is no longer compatible with the biophysical limits of the finite Earth. Failure to recover from the economic crash of 2008 is not due just to inadequate fiscal and monetary policies. The continuing global crisis is also due to scarcity of critical resources. Our macroecological studies highlight the role in the economy of energy and natural resources: oil, gas, water, arable land, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, fisheries, and wood. As the modern industrial technological-informational economy expanded in recent decades, it grew by consuming the Earth’s natural resources at unsustainable rates. Correlations between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of energy and other resources across nations and over time demonstrate how economic growth and development depend on “nature’s capital”. Decades-long trends of decreasing per capita consumption of multiple important commodities indicate that overexploitation has created an unsustainable bubble of population and economy. PMID:24882946

Macroecology Meets Macroeconomics: Resource Scarcity and Global Sustainability.

PubMed

Brown, James H; Burger, Joseph R; Burnside, William R; Chang, Michael; Davidson, Ana D; Fristoe, Trevor S; Hamilton, Marcus J; Hammond, Sean T; Kodric-Brown, Astrid; Mercado-Silva, Norman; Nekola, Jeffrey C; Okie, Jordan G

2014-04-01

The current economic paradigm, which is based on increasing human population, economic development, and standard of living, is no longer compatible with the biophysical limits of the finite Earth. Failure to recover from the economic crash of 2008 is not due just to inadequate fiscal and monetary policies. The continuing global crisis is also due to scarcity of critical resources. Our macroecological studies highlight the role in the economy of energy and natural resources: oil, gas, water, arable land, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, fisheries, and wood. As the modern industrial technological-informational economy expanded in recent decades, it grew by consuming the Earth's natural resources at unsustainable rates. Correlations between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of energy and other resources across nations and over time demonstrate how economic growth and development depend on "nature's capital". Decades-long trends of decreasing per capita consumption of multiple important commodities indicate that overexploitation has created an unsustainable bubble of population and economy.

Global health training and international clinical rotations during residency: current status, needs, and opportunities.

PubMed

Drain, Paul K; Holmes, King K; Skeff, Kelley M; Hall, Thomas L; Gardner, Pierce

2009-03-01

Increasing international travel and migration have contributed to globalization of diseases. Physicians today must understand the global burden and epidemiology of diseases, the disparities and inequities in global health systems, and the importance of cross-cultural sensitivity. To meet these needs, resident physicians across all specialties have expressed growing interest in global health training and international clinical rotations. More residents are acquiring international experience, despite inadequate guidance and support from most accreditation organizations and residency programs. Surveys of global health training, including international clinical rotations, highlight the benefits of global health training as well as the need for a more coordinated approach. In particular, international rotations broaden a resident's medical knowledge, reinforce physical examination skills, and encourage practicing medicine among underserved and multicultural populations. As residents recognize these personal and professional benefits, a strong majority of them seek to gain international clinical experience. In conclusion, with feasible and appropriate administrative steps, all residents can receive global health training and be afforded the accreditation and programmatic support to participate in safe international rotations. The next steps should address accreditation for international rotations and allowance for training away from continuity clinics by residency accreditation bodies, and stipend and travel support for six or more weeks of call-free elective time from residency programs.

The compounding effects of high pollen limitation, selfing rates and inbreeding depression leave a New Zealand tree with few viable offspring

PubMed Central

Van Etten, Megan L.; Tate, Jennifer A.; Anderson, Sandra H.; Kelly, Dave; Ladley, Jenny J.; Merrett, Merilyn F.; Peterson, Paul G.; Robertson, Alastair W.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Interactions between species are especially sensitive to environmental changes. The interaction between plants and pollinators is of particular interest given the potential current global decline in pollinators. Reduced pollinator services can be compensated for in some plant species by self-pollination. However, if inbreeding depression is high, selfed progeny could die prior to reaching adulthood, leading to cryptic recruitment failure. Methods To examine this scenario, pollinator abundance, pollen limitation, selfing rates and inbreeding depression were examined in 12 populations of varying disturbance levels in Sophora microphylla (Fabaceae), an endemic New Zealand tree species. Key Results High pollen limitation was found in all populations (average of 58 % reduction in seed production, nine populations), together with high selfing rates (61 % of offspring selfed, six populations) and high inbreeding depression (selfed offspring 86 % less fit, six populations). Pollen limitation was associated with lower visitation rates by the two endemic bird pollinators. Conclusions The results suggest that for these populations, over half of the seeds produced are genetically doomed. This reduction in the fitness of progeny due to reduced pollinator service is probably important to population dynamics of other New Zealand species. More broadly, the results suggest that measures of seed production or seedling densities may be a gross overestimate of the effective offspring production. This could lead to cryptic recruitment failure, i.e. a decline in successful reproduction despite high progeny production. Given the global extent of pollinator declines, cryptic recruitment failure may be widespread. PMID:26229065

Links between global meat trade and organic river pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-04-01

Rising demand of meat boosts livestock farming intensification. Due to international meat trade, the environmental costs of production are becoming increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. However, little is known about the impact of trade on the environment for both importers and exporters. Combining multi-scale (national, regional and gridded) data, we present a new method to quantify the impacts of international meat trade on global river organic pollution. We computed spatially distributed organic pollution in global river networks with and without meat trade, where the without-trade scenario assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. Our analysis indicates high potential savings of livestock population and pollutants production at the global scale due to the international meat trade. The spatially detailed analysis shows that current trade contributes to organic pollution reductions in meat importing regions, especially in rich nations. The deterioration of river water quality, especially in developing regions, points to an urgent need for affordable infrastructure and technology development and wastewater solutions.

Local and global genetic diversity of protozoan parasites: Spatial distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia genotypes.

PubMed

Garcia-R, Juan C; French, Nigel; Pita, Anthony; Velathanthiri, Niluka; Shrestha, Rima; Hayman, David

2017-07-01

Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis are recognized as significant enteric diseases due to their long-term health effects in humans and their economic impact in agriculture and medical care. Molecular analysis is essential to identify species and genotypes causing these infectious diseases and provides a potential tool for monitoring. This study uses information on species and genetic variants to gain insights into the geographical distribution and spatial patterns of Cryptosporidium and Giardia parasites. Here, we describe the population heterogeneity of genotypic groups within Cryptosporidium and Giardia present in New Zealand using gp60 and gdh markers to compare the observed variation with other countries around the globe. Four species of Cryptosporidium (C. hominis, C. parvum, C. cuniculus and C. erinacei) and one species of Giardia (G. intestinalis) were identified. These species have been reported worldwide and there are not unique Cryptosporidium gp60 subtype families and Giardia gdh assemblages in New Zealand, most likely due to high gene flow of historical and current human activity (travel and trade) and persistence of large host population sizes. The global analysis revealed that genetic variants of these pathogens are widely distributed. However, genetic variation is underestimated by data biases (e.g. neglected submission of sequences to genetic databases) and low sampling. New genotypes are likely to be discovered as sampling efforts increase according to accumulation prediction analyses, especially for C. parvum. Our study highlights the need for greater sampling and archiving of genotypes globally to allow comparative analyses that help understand the population dynamics of these protozoan parasites. Overall our study represents a comprehensive overview for exploring local and global protozoan genotype diversity and advances our understanding of the importance for surveillance and potential risk associated with these infectious diseases.

Can a few fanatics influence the opinion of a large segment of a society?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, D.; Sahimi, M.

2007-05-01

Models that provide insight into how extreme positions regarding any social phenomenon may spread in a society or at the global scale are of great current interest. A realistic model must account for the fact that globalization, internet, and other means of mass communications have given rise to scale-free networks of interactions between people. We propose a novel model which takes into account the nature of the interactions network, and provides some key insights into this phenomenon. These include, (1) the existence of a fundamental difference between a hierarchical network whereby people are influenced by those that are higher in the hierarchy but not by those below them, and a symmetrical network where person-on-person influence works mutually, and (2) that a few “fanatics” can influence a large fraction of the population either temporarily (in the hierarchical networks) or permanently (in symmetrical networks). Even if the “fanatics” disappear, the population may still remain susceptible to the positions originally advocated by them. The model is, however, general and applicable to any phenomenon for which there is a degree of enthusiasm or susceptibility to in the population.

Analysis of human resources for oral health globally: inequitable distribution.

PubMed

Gallagher, Jennifer E; Hutchinson, Lynn

2018-06-01

Oral diseases affect most of the global population. The aim of this paper was to provide a contemporary analysis of 'human resources for oral health' (HROH) by examining the size and distribution of the dental workforce according to World Health Organization (WHO) region and in the most populous countries. Publically available data on HROH and population size were sourced from the WHO, Central Intelligence Agency, United Nations, World Bank and the UK registration body. Population-to-dentist and dental-workforce ratios were calculated according to WHO region and for the 25 most populous countries globally. Workforce trends over time were examined for one high-income country, the UK. The majority of the world's 1.6 million dentists are based in Europe and the Americas, such that 69% of the world's dentists serve 27% of the global population. Africa has only 1% of the global workforce and thus there are marked inequalities in access to dental personnel, as demonstrated by population to dental-workforce ratios. Gaps exist in dental-workforce data, most notably relating to mid-level clinical providers, such as dental hygienists and therapists, and HROH data are not regularly updated. Workforce expansion and migration may result in rapid changes in dentist numbers. Marked inequalities in the distribution of global HROH exist between regions and countries, with inequalities most apparent in areas of high population growth. Detailed contemporary data on all groups of HROH are required to inform global workforce reform in support of addressing population oral health needs. © 2018 FDI World Dental Federation.

Properties of Hermean plasma belt: Numerical simulations and comparison with MESSENGER data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herčík, David; Trávníček, Pavel M.; Å tverák, Å. těpán.; Hellinger, Petr

2016-01-01

Using a global hybrid model and test particle simulations we present a detailed analysis of the Hermean plasma belt structure. We investigate characteristic properties of quasi-trapped particle population characteristics and its behavior under different orientations of the interplanetary magnetic field. The plasma belt region is constantly supplied with solar wind protons via magnetospheric flanks and tail current sheet region. Protons inside the plasma belt region are quasi-trapped in the magnetic field of Mercury and perform westward drift along the planet. This region is well separated by a magnetic shell and has higher average temperatures and lower bulk proton current densities than the surrounding area. On the dayside the population exhibits loss cone distribution function matching the theoretical loss cone angle. The simulation results are in good agreement with in situ observations of MESSENGER's (MErcury Surface Space ENvironment GEochemistry, and Ranging) MAG and FIPS instruments.

Genomic Differentiation and Demographic Histories of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) Populations

PubMed Central

Damerau, Malte; Matschiner, Michael; Jentoft, Sissel

2017-01-01

Recent developments in the field of genomics have provided new and powerful insights into population structure and dynamics that are essential for the conservation of biological diversity. As a commercially highly valuable species, the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is intensely exploited throughout its distribution in tropical oceans around the world, and is currently classified as near threatened. However, conservation efforts for this species have so far been hampered by limited knowledge of its population structure, due to incongruent results of previous investigations. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing in concert with a draft genome assembly to decipher the global population structure of the yellowfin tuna, and to investigate its demographic history. We detect significant differentiation of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna populations as well as the possibility of a third diverged yellowfin tuna group in the Arabian Sea. We further observe evidence for past population expansion as well as asymmetric gene flow from the Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic. PMID:28419285

Productivity, biodiversity, and pathogens influence the global hunter-gatherer population density.

PubMed

Tallavaara, Miikka; Eronen, Jussi T; Luoto, Miska

2018-02-06

The environmental drivers of species distributions and abundances are at the core of ecological research. However, the effects of these drivers on human abundance are not well-known. Here, we report how net primary productivity, biodiversity, and pathogen stress affect human population density using global ethnographic hunter-gatherer data. Our results show that productivity has significant effects on population density globally. The most important direct drivers, however, depend on environmental conditions: biodiversity influences population density exclusively in low-productivity regions, whereas pathogen stress does so in high-productivity regions. Our results also indicate that subtropical and temperate forest biomes provide the highest carrying capacity for hunter-gatherer populations. These findings document that environmental factors play a key role in shaping global population density patterns of preagricultural humans.

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovic, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Greve, Peter; Grey, David; Havlik, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, Nebjosa; Novak, Robert; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Barbara; Riahi, Keywan

2018-05-01

Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income <10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks approximately doubles between 1.5 °C and 2 °C GMT change, doubles again with 3 °C GMT change and is ~6x between the best and worst cases (SSP1/1.5 °C vs SSP3/3 °C, 0.8–4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world’s poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genetic diversity and divergence at the Arbutus unedo L. (Ericaceae) westernmost distribution limit.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Maria Margarida; Piotti, Andrea; Ricardo, Alexandra; Gaspar, Daniel; Costa, Rita; Parducci, Laura; Vendramin, Giovanni Giuseppe

2017-01-01

Mediterranean forests are fragile ecosystems vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation, and a long-term negative effect is expected on vegetation with increasing drought and in areas burnt by fires. We investigated the spatial distribution of genetic variation of Arbutus unedo in the western Iberia Peninsula, using plastid markers with conservation and provenance regions design purposes. This species is currently undergoing an intense domestication process in the region, and, like other species, is increasingly under the threat from climate change, habitat fragmentation and wildfires. We sampled 451 trees from 15 natural populations from different ecological conditions spanning the whole species' distribution range in the region. We applied Bayesian analysis and identified four clusters (north, centre, south, and a single-population cluster). Hierarchical AMOVA showed higher differentiation among clusters than among populations within clusters. The relatively low within-clusters differentiation can be explained by a common postglacial history of nearby populations. The genetic structure found, supported by the few available palaeobotanical records, cannot exclude the hypothesis of two independent A. unedo refugia in western Iberia Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum. Based on the results we recommend a conservation strategy by selecting populations for conservation based on their allelic richness and diversity and careful seed transfer consistent with current species' genetic structure.

Genetic diversity and divergence at the Arbutus unedo L. (Ericaceae) westernmost distribution limit

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Maria Margarida; Piotti, Andrea; Ricardo, Alexandra; Gaspar, Daniel; Costa, Rita; Parducci, Laura; Vendramin, Giovanni Giuseppe

2017-01-01

Mediterranean forests are fragile ecosystems vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation, and a long-term negative effect is expected on vegetation with increasing drought and in areas burnt by fires. We investigated the spatial distribution of genetic variation of Arbutus unedo in the western Iberia Peninsula, using plastid markers with conservation and provenance regions design purposes. This species is currently undergoing an intense domestication process in the region, and, like other species, is increasingly under the threat from climate change, habitat fragmentation and wildfires. We sampled 451 trees from 15 natural populations from different ecological conditions spanning the whole species’ distribution range in the region. We applied Bayesian analysis and identified four clusters (north, centre, south, and a single-population cluster). Hierarchical AMOVA showed higher differentiation among clusters than among populations within clusters. The relatively low within-clusters differentiation can be explained by a common postglacial history of nearby populations. The genetic structure found, supported by the few available palaeobotanical records, cannot exclude the hypothesis of two independent A. unedo refugia in western Iberia Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum. Based on the results we recommend a conservation strategy by selecting populations for conservation based on their allelic richness and diversity and careful seed transfer consistent with current species’ genetic structure. PMID:28384294

Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population.

PubMed

Pulido, Francisco; Berthold, Peter

2010-04-20

Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution, abundance, and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds, but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic adjustments are largely unknown. This knowledge is still crucial to predict whether populations of migratory birds will adapt to a rapid increase in temperature. We monitored migratory behavior in a population of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) to test for evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Using a common garden experiment in time and captive breeding we demonstrated a genetic reduction in migratory activity and evolutionary change in phenotypic plasticity of migration onset. An artificial selection experiment further revealed that residency will rapidly evolve in completely migratory bird populations if selection for shorter migration distance persists. Our findings suggest that current alterations of the environment are favoring birds wintering closer to the breeding grounds and that populations of migratory birds have strongly responded to these changes in selection. The reduction of migratory activity is probably an important evolutionary process in the adaptation of migratory birds to climate change, because it reduces migration costs and facilitates the rapid adjustment to the shifts in the timing of food availability during reproduction.

Global Monitoring of Water Supply and Sanitation: History, Methods and Future Challenges

PubMed Central

Bartram, Jamie; Brocklehurst, Clarissa; Fisher, Michael B.; Luyendijk, Rolf; Hossain, Rifat; Wardlaw, Tessa; Gordon, Bruce

2014-01-01

International monitoring of drinking water and sanitation shapes awareness of countries’ needs and informs policy, implementation and research efforts to extend and improve services. The Millennium Development Goals established global targets for drinking water and sanitation access; progress towards these targets, facilitated by international monitoring, has contributed to reducing the global disease burden and increasing quality of life. The experiences of the MDG period generated important lessons about the strengths and limitations of current approaches to defining and monitoring access to drinking water and sanitation. The methods by which the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) of WHO and UNICEF tracks access and progress are based on analysis of data from household surveys and linear regression modelling of these results over time. These methods provide nationally-representative and internationally-comparable insights into the drinking water and sanitation facilities used by populations worldwide, but also have substantial limitations: current methods do not address water quality, equity of access, or extra-household services. Improved statistical methods are needed to better model temporal trends. This article describes and critically reviews JMP methods in detail for the first time. It also explores the impact of, and future directions for, international monitoring of drinking water and sanitation. PMID:25116635

A Spatial Method to Calculate Small-Scale Fisheries Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, A. F.; Moreno-Báez, M.; Giron-Nava, A.; Corominas, J.; Erisman, B.; Ezcurra, E.; Aburto-Oropeza, O.

2016-02-01

Despite global catch per unit effort having redoubled since the 1950's, the global fishing fleet is estimated to be twice the size that the oceans can sustainably support. In order to gauge the collateral impacts of fishing intensity, we must be able to estimate the spatial extent and amount of fishing vessels in the oceans. Methods that do currently exist are built around electronic tracking and log book systems and generally focus on industrial fisheries. Spatial extent for small-scale fisheries therefore remains elusive for many small-scale fishing fleets; even though these fisheries land the same biomass for human consumption as industrial fisheries. Current methods are data-intensive and require extensive extrapolation when estimated across large spatial scales. We present an accessible, spatial method of calculating the extent of small-scale fisheries based on two simple measures that are available, or at least easily estimable, in even the most data poor fisheries: the number of boats and the local coastal human population. We demonstrate this method is fishery-type independent and can be used to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of growth in small-scale fisheries. This method provides an important first step towards estimating the fishing extent of the small-scale fleet, globally.

Mapping SLCO1B1 Genetic Variation for Global Precision Medicine in Understudied Regions in Africa: A Focus on Zulu and Cape Admixed Populations.

PubMed

Hoosain, Nisreen; Pearce, Brendon; Jacobs, Clifford; Benjeddou, Mongi

2016-09-01

The U.S. President Barack Obama has announced, in his State of the Union address on January 20, 2015, the Precision Medicine Initiative, a US$215-million program. For global precision medicine to become a reality, however, biological and environmental "variome" in previously understudied populations ought to be mapped and catalogued. Chief among the molecular targets that warrant global mapping is the organic anion-transporting polypeptide 1B1 (OATP1B1), encoded by solute carrier organic anion transporter family member 1B1 (SLCO1B1), a hepatic uptake transporter predominantly expressed in the basolateral side of hepatocytes. Human OATP1B1 plays a crucial role in the transport of a wide variety of substrates. This includes endogenous compounds such as bile salts as well as medicines, including benzylpenicillin, methotrexate, pravastatin, and rifampicin, and natural toxins microcystin and phalloidin. Genetic variations observed in the SLCO1B1 gene have been associated with altered in vitro and in vivo OATP1B1 transport activity, and consequently influencing patients' response to medicines, toxins, and susceptibility to common complex diseases. Well-characterized haplotypes, *5 (RS4149056C) and *15 (RS4149056T), have been associated with a strikingly reduced uptake of multiple OATP1B1 substrates, including estrone-3-sulfate, estradiol-17β-d-glucuronide, atorvastatin, cerivastatin, pravastatin, and rifampicin. In particular, RS4149056C is observed in 60% of the Cape admixed (CA) population and is associated with increased plasma concentrations of many statins as well as fexofenadine and repaglinide. We designed and optimized a SNaPshot minisequencing panel to characterize the variants of relevance for precision medicine in the clinic. We report here the first study on allele and genotype frequencies for 10 nonsynonymous, 4 synonymous, and 6 intronic single-nucleotide polymorphisms of SLCO1B1 in the Zulu and CA populations of South Africa. These variants are further contextualized here, in relation to their potential clinical relevance. These observations collectively contribute to current efforts to advance global precision medicine in understudied populations and resource-limited regions of the world.

Measuring the Population Burden of Injuries—Implications for Global and National Estimates: A Multi-centre Prospective UK Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Lyons, Ronan A.; Kendrick, Denise; Towner, Elizabeth M.; Christie, Nicola; Macey, Steven; Coupland, Carol; Gabbe, Belinda J.

2011-01-01

Background Current methods of measuring the population burden of injuries rely on many assumptions and limited data available to the global burden of diseases (GBD) studies. The aim of this study was to compare the population burden of injuries using different approaches from the UK Burden of Injury (UKBOI) and GBD studies. Methods and Findings The UKBOI was a prospective cohort of 1,517 injured individuals that collected patient-reported outcomes. Extrapolated outcome data were combined with multiple sources of morbidity and mortality data to derive population metrics of the burden of injury in the UK. Participants were injured patients recruited from hospitals in four UK cities and towns: Swansea, Nottingham, Bristol, and Guildford, between September 2005 and April 2007. Patient-reported changes in quality of life using the EQ-5D at baseline, 1, 4, and 12 months after injury provided disability weights used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLDs) component of disability adjusted life years (DALYs). DALYs were calculated for the UK and extrapolated to global estimates using both UKBOI and GBD disability weights. Estimated numbers (and rates per 100,000) for UK population extrapolations were 750,999 (1,240) for hospital admissions, 7,982,947 (13,339) for emergency department (ED) attendances, and 22,185 (36.8) for injury-related deaths in 2005. Nonadmitted ED-treated injuries accounted for 67% of YLDs. Estimates for UK DALYs amounted to 1,771,486 (82% due to YLDs), compared with 669,822 (52% due to YLDs) using the GBD approach. Extrapolating patient-derived disability weights to GBD estimates would increase injury-related DALYs 2.6-fold. Conclusions The use of disability weights derived from patient experiences combined with additional morbidity data on ED-treated patients and inpatients suggests that the absolute burden of injury is higher than previously estimated. These findings have substantial implications for improving measurement of the national and global burden of injury. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22162954

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

PubMed

Zager, Ellen M; McNerney, Ruth

2008-01-25

With almost 9 million new cases each year, tuberculosis remains one of the most feared diseases on the planet. Led by the STOP-TB Partnership and WHO, recent efforts to combat the disease have made considerable progress in a number of countries. However, the emergence of mutated strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that are resistant to the major anti-tuberculosis drugs poses a deadly threat to control efforts. Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has been reported in all regions of the world. More recently, extensively drug resistant-tuberculosis (XDR-TB) that is also resistant to second line drugs has emerged in a number of countries. To ensure that adequate resources are allocated to prevent the emergence and spread of drug resistance it is important to understand the scale of the problem. In this article we propose that current methods of describing the epidemiology of drug resistant tuberculosis are not adequate for this purpose and argue for the inclusion of population based statistics in global surveillance data. Whereas the prevalence of tuberculosis is presented as the proportion of individuals within a defined population having disease, the prevalence of drug resistant tuberculosis is usually presented as the proportion of tuberculosis cases exhibiting resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs. Global surveillance activities have identified countries in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union and regions of China as having a high proportion of MDR-TB cases and international commentary has focused primarily on the urgent need to improve control in these settings. Other regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa have been observed as having a low proportion of drug resistant cases. However, if one considers the incidence of new tuberculosis cases with drug resistant disease in terms of the population then countries of sub-Saharan Africa have amongst the highest rates of transmitted MDR-TB in the world. We propose that inclusion of population based statistics in global surveillance data is necessary to better inform debate on the control of drug resistant tuberculosis. Re-appraisal of global MDR-TB data to include population based statistics suggests that the problem of drug resistant tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa is more critical than previously perceived.

The Applied Development of a Tiered Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) Scheme for Dichelobacter nodosus.

PubMed

Blanchard, Adam M; Jolley, Keith A; Maiden, Martin C J; Coffey, Tracey J; Maboni, Grazieli; Staley, Ceri E; Bollard, Nicola J; Warry, Andrew; Emes, Richard D; Davies, Peers L; Tötemeyer, Sabine

2018-01-01

Dichelobacter nodosus ( D. nodosus ) is the causative pathogen of ovine footrot, a disease that has a significant welfare and financial impact on the global sheep industry. Previous studies into the phylogenetics of D. nodosus have focused on Australia and Scandinavia, meaning the current diversity in the United Kingdom (U.K.) population and its relationship globally, is poorly understood. Numerous epidemiological methods are available for bacterial typing; however, few account for whole genome diversity or provide the opportunity for future application of new computational techniques. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) measures nucleotide variations within several loci with slow accumulation of variation to enable the designation of allele numbers to determine a sequence type. The usage of whole genome sequence data enables the application of MLST, but also core and whole genome MLST for higher levels of strain discrimination with a negligible increase in experimental cost. An MLST database was developed alongside a seven loci scheme using publically available whole genome data from the sequence read archive. Sequence type designation and strain discrimination was compared to previously published data to ensure reproducibility. Multiple D. nodosus isolates from U.K. farms were directly compared to populations from other countries. The U.K. isolates define new clades within the global population of D. nodosus and predominantly consist of serogroups A, B and H, however serogroups C, D, E, and I were also found. The scheme is publically available at https://pubmlst.org/dnodosus/.

Impending extinction crisis of the world's primates: Why primates matter.

PubMed

Estrada, Alejandro; Garber, Paul A; Rylands, Anthony B; Roos, Christian; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Nekaris, K Anne-Isola; Nijman, Vincent; Heymann, Eckhard W; Lambert, Joanna E; Rovero, Francesco; Barelli, Claudia; Setchell, Joanna M; Gillespie, Thomas R; Mittermeier, Russell A; Arregoitia, Luis Verde; de Guinea, Miguel; Gouveia, Sidney; Dobrovolski, Ricardo; Shanee, Sam; Shanee, Noga; Boyle, Sarah A; Fuentes, Agustin; MacKinnon, Katherine C; Amato, Katherine R; Meyer, Andreas L S; Wich, Serge; Sussman, Robert W; Pan, Ruliang; Kone, Inza; Li, Baoguo

2017-01-01

Nonhuman primates, our closest biological relatives, play important roles in the livelihoods, cultures, and religions of many societies and offer unique insights into human evolution, biology, behavior, and the threat of emerging diseases. They are an essential component of tropical biodiversity, contributing to forest regeneration and ecosystem health. Current information shows the existence of 504 species in 79 genera distributed in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, and Asia. Alarmingly, ~60% of primate species are now threatened with extinction and ~75% have declining populations. This situation is the result of escalating anthropogenic pressures on primates and their habitats-mainly global and local market demands, leading to extensive habitat loss through the expansion of industrial agriculture, large-scale cattle ranching, logging, oil and gas drilling, mining, dam building, and the construction of new road networks in primate range regions. Other important drivers are increased bushmeat hunting and the illegal trade of primates as pets and primate body parts, along with emerging threats, such as climate change and anthroponotic diseases. Often, these pressures act in synergy, exacerbating primate population declines. Given that primate range regions overlap extensively with a large, and rapidly growing, human population characterized by high levels of poverty, global attention is needed immediately to reverse the looming risk of primate extinctions and to attend to local human needs in sustainable ways. Raising global scientific and public awareness of the plight of the world's primates and the costs of their loss to ecosystem health and human society is imperative.

Impending extinction crisis of the world’s primates: Why primates matter

PubMed Central

Estrada, Alejandro; Garber, Paul A.; Rylands, Anthony B.; Roos, Christian; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Nekaris, K. Anne-Isola; Nijman, Vincent; Heymann, Eckhard W.; Lambert, Joanna E.; Rovero, Francesco; Barelli, Claudia; Setchell, Joanna M.; Gillespie, Thomas R.; Mittermeier, Russell A.; Arregoitia, Luis Verde; de Guinea, Miguel; Gouveia, Sidney; Dobrovolski, Ricardo; Shanee, Sam; Shanee, Noga; Boyle, Sarah A.; Fuentes, Agustin; MacKinnon, Katherine C.; Amato, Katherine R.; Meyer, Andreas L. S.; Wich, Serge; Sussman, Robert W.; Pan, Ruliang; Kone, Inza; Li, Baoguo

2017-01-01

Nonhuman primates, our closest biological relatives, play important roles in the livelihoods, cultures, and religions of many societies and offer unique insights into human evolution, biology, behavior, and the threat of emerging diseases. They are an essential component of tropical biodiversity, contributing to forest regeneration and ecosystem health. Current information shows the existence of 504 species in 79 genera distributed in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, and Asia. Alarmingly, ~60% of primate species are now threatened with extinction and ~75% have declining populations. This situation is the result of escalating anthropogenic pressures on primates and their habitats—mainly global and local market demands, leading to extensive habitat loss through the expansion of industrial agriculture, large-scale cattle ranching, logging, oil and gas drilling, mining, dam building, and the construction of new road networks in primate range regions. Other important drivers are increased bushmeat hunting and the illegal trade of primates as pets and primate body parts, along with emerging threats, such as climate change and anthroponotic diseases. Often, these pressures act in synergy, exacerbating primate population declines. Given that primate range regions overlap extensively with a large, and rapidly growing, human population characterized by high levels of poverty, global attention is needed immediately to reverse the looming risk of primate extinctions and to attend to local human needs in sustainable ways. Raising global scientific and public awareness of the plight of the world’s primates and the costs of their loss to ecosystem health and human society is imperative. PMID:28116351

An online education approach to population health in a global society.

PubMed

Utley-Smith, Queen

2017-07-01

Health professions education content must keep pace with the ever-evolving and changing health care system. Population-based health care is advocated as a way to improve health outcomes, particularly in a technologically advanced health system like the United States. At the same time, global health knowledge is increasingly valued in health professions education, including nursing. This article describes the design and implementation of an online population health course with a global viewpoint intended to accommodate the need for improved knowledge and skill application for graduate nurses. Attention was also given to faculty efficiency during the process of design and implementation. This population-global health course was piloted in a renovated master's curriculum for two semesters. Administering a Course Improvement Survey after initial course offerings assisted faculty to assess and target essential course changes. Data were collected from 106 registered nurse graduate students. Population and global health course objectives were met and students identified areas for course enhancement. Students (90%-94%) reported achieving increased knowledge of population health and global health. Like other creative works, the first rendition of a course requires pedagogical adjustments and editing. Formal student input, when built into the design and implementation of a course can assist faculty to be efficient when crafting essential course changes for subsequent semesters. Data from the survey showed that major population and global subject matter was being grasped by students, the data also revealed that tweaking specific online strategies like making all course content mobile would enhance the course. The course development process and course improvement evaluation for this Population Health in a Global Society course proved valuable in the education of nurses, and helped maintain faculty work efficiency. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bordetella pertussis evolution in the (functional) genomics era

PubMed Central

Belcher, Thomas; Preston, Andrew

2015-01-01

The incidence of whooping cough caused by Bordetella pertussis in many developed countries has risen dramatically in recent years. This has been linked to the use of an acellular pertussis vaccine. In addition, it is thought that B. pertussis is adapting under acellular vaccine mediated immune selection pressure, towards vaccine escape. Genomics-based approaches have revolutionized the ability to resolve the fine structure of the global B. pertussis population and its evolution during the era of vaccination. Here, we discuss the current picture of B. pertussis evolution and diversity in the light of the current resurgence, highlight import questions raised by recent studies in this area and discuss the role that functional genomics can play in addressing current knowledge gaps. PMID:26297914

Tools and Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination: What Do We Need to Achieve a Grand Convergence in Malaria?

PubMed Central

Hemingway, Janet; Shretta, Rima; Wells, Timothy N. C.; Bell, David; Djimdé, Abdoulaye A.; Achee, Nicole; Qi, Gao

2016-01-01

Progress made in malaria control during the past decade has prompted increasing global dialogue on malaria elimination and eradication. The product development pipeline for malaria has never been stronger, with promising new tools to detect, treat, and prevent malaria, including innovative diagnostics, medicines, vaccines, vector control products, and improved mechanisms for surveillance and response. There are at least 25 projects in the global malaria vaccine pipeline, as well as 47 medicines and 13 vector control products. In addition, there are several next-generation diagnostic tools and reference methods currently in development, with many expected to be introduced in the next decade. The development and adoption of these tools, bolstered by strategies that ensure rapid uptake in target populations, intensified mechanisms for information management, surveillance, and response, and continued financial and political commitment are all essential to achieving global eradication. PMID:26934361

Tools and Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination: What Do We Need to Achieve a Grand Convergence in Malaria?

PubMed

Hemingway, Janet; Shretta, Rima; Wells, Timothy N C; Bell, David; Djimdé, Abdoulaye A; Achee, Nicole; Qi, Gao

2016-03-01

Progress made in malaria control during the past decade has prompted increasing global dialogue on malaria elimination and eradication. The product development pipeline for malaria has never been stronger, with promising new tools to detect, treat, and prevent malaria, including innovative diagnostics, medicines, vaccines, vector control products, and improved mechanisms for surveillance and response. There are at least 25 projects in the global malaria vaccine pipeline, as well as 47 medicines and 13 vector control products. In addition, there are several next-generation diagnostic tools and reference methods currently in development, with many expected to be introduced in the next decade. The development and adoption of these tools, bolstered by strategies that ensure rapid uptake in target populations, intensified mechanisms for information management, surveillance, and response, and continued financial and political commitment are all essential to achieving global eradication.

The contribution of glacier melt to streamflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schaner, Neil; Voisin, Nathalie; Nijssen, Bart

2012-09-13

Ongoing and projected future changes in glacier extent and water storage globally have lead to concerns about the implications for water supplies. However, the current magnitude of glacier contributions to river runoff is not well known, nor is the population at risk to future glacier changes. We estimate an upper bound on glacier melt contribution to seasonal streamflow by computing the energy balance of glaciers globally. Melt water quantities are computed as a fraction of total streamflow simulated using a hydrology model and the melt fraction is tracked down the stream network. In general, our estimates of the glacier meltmore » contribution to streamflow are lower than previously published values. Nonetheless, we find that globally an estimated 225 (36) million people live in river basins where maximum seasonal glacier melt contributes at least 10% (25%) of streamflow, mostly in the High Asia region.« less

Role of stochastic processes in maintaining discrete strain structure in antigenically diverse pathogen populations.

PubMed

Buckee, Caroline O; Recker, Mario; Watkins, Eleanor R; Gupta, Sunetra

2011-09-13

Many highly diverse pathogen populations appear to exist stably as discrete antigenic types despite evidence of genetic exchange. It has been shown that this may arise as a consequence of immune selection on pathogen populations, causing them to segregate permanently into discrete nonoverlapping subsets of antigenic variants to minimize competition for available hosts. However, discrete antigenic strain structure tends to break down under conditions where there are unequal numbers of allelic variants at each locus. Here, we show that the inclusion of stochastic processes can lead to the stable recovery of discrete strain structure through loss of certain alleles. This explains how pathogen populations may continue to behave as independently transmitted strains despite inevitable asymmetries in allelic diversity of major antigens. We present evidence for this type of structuring across global meningococcal isolates in three diverse antigens that are currently being developed as vaccine components.

Global Conservation Priorities for Marine Turtles

PubMed Central

Wallace, Bryan P.; DiMatteo, Andrew D.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani Y.; Hutchinson, Brian J.; Abreu-Grobois, F. Alberto; Mortimer, Jeanne A.; Seminoff, Jeffrey A.; Amorocho, Diego; Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bourjea, Jérôme; Bowen, Brian W.; Briseño Dueñas, Raquel; Casale, Paolo; Choudhury, B. C.; Costa, Alice; Dutton, Peter H.; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Finkbeiner, Elena M.; Girard, Alexandre; Girondot, Marc; Hamann, Mark; Hurley, Brendan J.; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; Marcovaldi, Maria Angela; Musick, John A.; Nel, Ronel; Pilcher, Nicolas J.; Troëng, Sebastian; Witherington, Blair; Mast, Roderic B.

2011-01-01

Where conservation resources are limited and conservation targets are diverse, robust yet flexible priority-setting frameworks are vital. Priority-setting is especially important for geographically widespread species with distinct populations subject to multiple threats that operate on different spatial and temporal scales. Marine turtles are widely distributed and exhibit intra-specific variations in population sizes and trends, as well as reproduction and morphology. However, current global extinction risk assessment frameworks do not assess conservation status of spatially and biologically distinct marine turtle Regional Management Units (RMUs), and thus do not capture variations in population trends, impacts of threats, or necessary conservation actions across individual populations. To address this issue, we developed a new assessment framework that allowed us to evaluate, compare and organize marine turtle RMUs according to status and threats criteria. Because conservation priorities can vary widely (i.e. from avoiding imminent extinction to maintaining long-term monitoring efforts) we developed a “conservation priorities portfolio” system using categories of paired risk and threats scores for all RMUs (n = 58). We performed these assessments and rankings globally, by species, by ocean basin, and by recognized geopolitical bodies to identify patterns in risk, threats, and data gaps at different scales. This process resulted in characterization of risk and threats to all marine turtle RMUs, including identification of the world's 11 most endangered marine turtle RMUs based on highest risk and threats scores. This system also highlighted important gaps in available information that is crucial for accurate conservation assessments. Overall, this priority-setting framework can provide guidance for research and conservation priorities at multiple relevant scales, and should serve as a model for conservation status assessments and priority-setting for widespread, long-lived taxa. PMID:21969858

Global MLST of Salmonella Typhi Revisited in Post-genomic Era: Genetic Conservation, Population Structure, and Comparative Genomics of Rare Sequence Types.

PubMed

Yap, Kien-Pong; Ho, Wing S; Gan, Han M; Chai, Lay C; Thong, Kwai L

2016-01-01

Typhoid fever, caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, remains an important public health burden in Southeast Asia and other endemic countries. Various genotyping methods have been applied to study the genetic variations of this human-restricted pathogen. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) is one of the widely accepted methods, and recently, there is a growing interest in the re-application of MLST in the post-genomic era. In this study, we provide the global MLST distribution of S. Typhi utilizing both publicly available 1,826 S. Typhi genome sequences in addition to performing conventional MLST on S. Typhi strains isolated from various endemic regions spanning over a century. Our global MLST analysis confirms the predominance of two sequence types (ST1 and ST2) co-existing in the endemic regions. Interestingly, S. Typhi strains with ST8 are currently confined within the African continent. Comparative genomic analyses of ST8 and other rare STs with genomes of ST1/ST2 revealed unique mutations in important virulence genes such as flhB, sipC, and tviD that may explain the variations that differentiate between seemingly successful (widespread) and unsuccessful (poor dissemination) S. Typhi populations. Large scale whole-genome phylogeny demonstrated evidence of phylogeographical structuring and showed that ST8 may have diverged from the earlier ancestral population of ST1 and ST2, which later lost some of its fitness advantages, leading to poor worldwide dissemination. In response to the unprecedented increase in genomic data, this study demonstrates and highlights the utility of large-scale genome-based MLST as a quick and effective approach to narrow the scope of in-depth comparative genomic analysis and consequently provide new insights into the fine scale of pathogen evolution and population structure.

Nervous System Infections and the Global Traveler.

PubMed

Reid, Savina; Thompson, Haley; Thakur, Kiran T

2018-04-01

Neurological complications of infectious diseases are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. It is imperative that neurologists be up-to-date on current developments including typical and atypical presentations of neurological infections in travelers, diagnostic and treatment recommendations, and emerging pathogen resistance patterns to avoid fatal outcomes and long-term sequelae. This article will address concepts of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, and will provide updates on the neurological manifestations of select emerging and reemerging infections, including Ebola virus, bacterial meningitis, enterovirus 71, Zika virus, cerebral malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. Emerging and reemerging neurotropic infectious diseases, including Zika virus, have recently been major global health threats. Factors contributing to the emergence of infectious diseases include closer contact with zoonoses, population growth in cities, globalization, environmental changes, and the rise in antibiotic resistance. Serotype replacement of bacterial meningitis, the possibility of viral persistence in the central nervous system in Ebola virus, antibiotic resistance of malaria, and the evolution of neurovirulent strains of Zika virus display some of the developing challenges that accompany various neurotropic infectious diseases. Neurologists should be aware of the factors contributing to the emergence and reemergence of neurotropic infectious diseases. As emerging and reemerging neurotropic infectious continue to be a major global health security threat, clinicians should be aware of the risks to travelers and current guidelines on prevention and management. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Responding to the public health consequences of the Ukraine crisis: an opportunity for global health diplomacy.

PubMed

Mackey, Tim K; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2015-01-01

Peace and stability in Eastern Europe is now at a crossroads with the rapidly deteriorating foreign policy crisis continuing to unfold in the Ukraine. However, largely overlooked in the context of other foreign policy and diplomatic priorities are the serious public health consequences for the region following the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent decision to ban opioid substitution therapy in the disputed territory. On 1 May 2014, the Republic of Crimea officially announced it would end access to opioid substitution therapy, an essential harm reduction tool recognized by international organizations and virtually all other European countries. The policy development marks a critical reversal in the region's fight against its growing HIV epidemic and also threatens years of public health gains aimed at providing evidence-based and integrated treatment approaches to combat drug dependence and HIV. Beyond these risks, the Ukrainian conflict could also negatively impact control of other infectious diseases that are converging with HIV and injection drug use, such as multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and hepatitis C virus. The continuing conflict is also likely to have a significant negative impact on Ukraine's fragile public health system leading to even worse population health outcomes than currently experienced by the country. In response to this crisis, the application of global health diplomacy principles represents a possible route of advocacy to ensure that HIV prevention, humane treatment of substance using populations, and improving public health outcomes in the region are pursued among concerned international stakeholders. In order to be effective, global health diplomacy efforts must be coordinated and advocated in all forms of diplomatic engagement, including at the core, multistakeholder and informal levels and through existing channels such as the different human rights bodies of the United Nations as well as amongst other actors. Hence, the Ukraine crisis represents a critical moment for the practice and advancement of global health diplomacy in order to ensure global public health priorities are given their rightful place in foreign policy making to hopefully help in bringing resolution to the current conflict.

Responding to the public health consequences of the Ukraine crisis: an opportunity for global health diplomacy

PubMed Central

Mackey, Tim K; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2015-01-01

Introduction Peace and stability in Eastern Europe is now at a crossroads with the rapidly deteriorating foreign policy crisis continuing to unfold in the Ukraine. However, largely overlooked in the context of other foreign policy and diplomatic priorities are the serious public health consequences for the region following the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent decision to ban opioid substitution therapy in the disputed territory. Discussion On 1 May 2014, the Republic of Crimea officially announced it would end access to opioid substitution therapy, an essential harm reduction tool recognized by international organizations and virtually all other European countries. The policy development marks a critical reversal in the region’s fight against its growing HIV epidemic and also threatens years of public health gains aimed at providing evidence-based and integrated treatment approaches to combat drug dependence and HIV. Beyond these risks, the Ukrainian conflict could also negatively impact control of other infectious diseases that are converging with HIV and injection drug use, such as multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and hepatitis C virus. The continuing conflict is also likely to have a significant negative impact on Ukraine’s fragile public health system leading to even worse population health outcomes than currently experienced by the country. Conclusions In response to this crisis, the application of global health diplomacy principles represents a possible route of advocacy to ensure that HIV prevention, humane treatment of substance using populations, and improving public health outcomes in the region are pursued among concerned international stakeholders. In order to be effective, global health diplomacy efforts must be coordinated and advocated in all forms of diplomatic engagement, including at the core, multistakeholder and informal levels and through existing channels such as the different human rights bodies of the United Nations as well as amongst other actors. Hence, the Ukraine crisis represents a critical moment for the practice and advancement of global health diplomacy in order to ensure global public health priorities are given their rightful place in foreign policy making to hopefully help in bringing resolution to the current conflict. PMID:25787347

Simulating the Fate of an Ionospheric Mass Ejection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, T. E.; Fok, M. H.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

2008-12-01

We report global ion kinetic (GIK) simulations of the 24-25 Sep 1998 storm, with all relevant ionospheric outflows including polar, auroral, and plasmaspheric winds. This storm included substantial periods of northward interplanetary magnetic field, but did develop a Dst of -200 nT at its peak. The solar disturbance resulted form a coronal mass ejection that reached a peak dynamic pressure at the magnetosphere of 6.2 nPa, and produced a substantial enhancement of auroral wind oxygen outflow from the dayside, which has been termed an "ionospheric mass ejection" in an earlier observational paper. We use the LFM global simulation model to produce electric and magnetic fields in the outer magnetosphere, the Strangeway-Zheng outflow scalings with Delcourt ion trajectories to include ionospheric outflows, and the Fok-Ober inner magnetospheric model for the plasmaspheric and ring current response to all particle populations. We assess the combined contributions of heliospheric and geospheric plasmas to the ring current for this event.

Comparing Self-Concept Among Youth Currently Receiving Inpatient Versus Outpatient Mental Health Services

PubMed Central

Choi, Chris; Ferro, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Objective This study compared levels of self-concept among youth who were currently receiving inpatient versus outpatient mental health services. Method Forty-seven youth were recruited from the Child & Youth Mental Health Program at McMaster Children’s Hospital. Self-concept was measured using the Self-Perception Profile for Children and Adolescents. Results The mean age was 14.5 years and most participants were female (70.2%). ANOVAs comparing self-concept with population norms showed large significant effects (d = 0.77 to 1.93) indicating compromised self-concept among youth receiving mental health services. Regression analyses controlling for patient age, sex, family income, and diagnoses of major depressive disorder, generalized social phobia, and generalized anxiety showed that the inpatient setting was a significant predictor of lower global self-worth (β=−.26; p=.035). Conclusions Compared to outpatients, inpatients generally reported lower self-concept, but differences were significant only for global self-worth. Future research replicating this finding and assessing its clinical significance is encouraged. PMID:29375635

Comparing Self-Concept Among Youth Currently Receiving Inpatient Versus Outpatient Mental Health Services.

PubMed

Choi, Chris; Ferro, Mark A

2018-01-01

This study compared levels of self-concept among youth who were currently receiving inpatient versus outpatient mental health services. Forty-seven youth were recruited from the Child & Youth Mental Health Program at McMaster Children's Hospital. Self-concept was measured using the Self-Perception Profile for Children and Adolescents. The mean age was 14.5 years and most participants were female (70.2%). ANOVAs comparing self-concept with population norms showed large significant effects (d = 0.77 to 1.93) indicating compromised self-concept among youth receiving mental health services. Regression analyses controlling for patient age, sex, family income, and diagnoses of major depressive disorder, generalized social phobia, and generalized anxiety showed that the inpatient setting was a significant predictor of lower global self-worth (β=-.26; p=.035). Compared to outpatients, inpatients generally reported lower self-concept, but differences were significant only for global self-worth. Future research replicating this finding and assessing its clinical significance is encouraged.

Comparing Self-Concept Among Youth Currently Receiving Inpatient Versus Outpatient Mental Health Services

PubMed Central

Choi, Chris; Ferro, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Objective This study compared levels of self-concept among youth who were currently receiving inpatient versus outpatient mental health services. Method Forty-seven youth were recruited from the Child & Youth Mental Health Program at McMaster Children’s Hospital. Self-concept was measured using the Self-Perception Profile for Children and Adolescents. Results The mean age was 14.5 years and most participants were female (70.2%). ANOVAs comparing self-concept with population norms showed large significant effects (d = 0.77 to 1.93) indicating compromised self-concept among youth receiving mental health services. Regression analyses controlling for patient age, sex, family income, and diagnoses of major depressive disorder, generalized social phobia, and generalized anxiety showed that the inpatient setting was a significant predictor of lower global self-worth (β=−.26; p=.035). Conclusions Compared to outpatients, inpatients generally reported lower self-concept, but differences were significant only for global self-worth. Future research replicating this finding and assessing its clinical significance is encouraged. PMID:29399020

[Globalization, inequality, and transmission of tropical diseases in the Venezuelan Amazon].

PubMed

Botto-Abella, Carlos; Graterol-Mendoza, Beatriz

2007-01-01

Economic globalization appears to be causing greater inequalities and increased vulnerability to tropical diseases around the world. The Venezuelan Amazon population, especially the rural indigenous population, displays among the worst health indicators in the Americas. High infant mortality rates in remote indigenous populations indicate that such communities have been affected by the globalization of disease, rather than favored by globalization of health. Globalization has also influenced public policies in the country, affecting the efficiency of control programs targeting tropical diseases. A new global pact for the sustainable development of the planet is needed, supported by the globalization of human values and rights. In Venezuela, new policies for the indigenous health sector, more resources, and greater autonomy could help reduce the inequities described here in the Venezuelan Amazon.

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2016-09-01

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

2008-01-01

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Migration and health in Canada: health in the global village

PubMed Central

Gushulak, Brian D.; Pottie, Kevin; Roberts, Janet Hatcher; Torres, Sara; DesMeules, Marie

2011-01-01

Background: Immigration has been and remains an important force shaping Canadian demography and identity. Health characteristics associated with the movement of large numbers of people have current and future implications for migrants, health practitioners and health systems. We aimed to identify demographics and health status data for migrant populations in Canada. Methods: We systematically searched Ovid MEDLINE (1996–2009) and other relevant web-based databases to examine immigrant selection processes, demographic statistics, health status from population studies and health service implications associated with migration to Canada. Studies and data were selected based on relevance, use of recent data and quality. Results: Currently, immigration represents two-thirds of Canada’s population growth, and immigrants make up more than 20% of the nation’s population. Both of these metrics are expected to increase. In general, newly arriving immigrants are healthier than the Canadian population, but over time there is a decline in this healthy immigrant effect. Immigrants and children born to new immigrants represent growing cohorts; in some metropolitan regions of Canada, they represent the majority of the patient population. Access to health services and health conditions of some migrant populations differ from patterns among Canadian-born patients, and these disparities have implications for preventive care and provision of health services. Interpretation: Because the health characteristics of some migrant populations vary according to their origin and experience, improved understanding of the scope and nature of the immigration process will help practitioners who will be increasingly involved in the care of immigrant populations, including prevention, early detection of disease and treatment. PMID:20584934

Global Epidemiology of HIV Infection and Related Syndemics Affecting Transgender People

PubMed Central

Scheim, Ayden; Xavier, Jessica; Reisner, Sari; Baral, Stefan

2016-01-01

Introduction: Transgender populations have been underrepresented in HIV epidemiologic studies and consequently in HIV prevention, care, and treatment programs. Since 2012, there has been a dramatic increase in research focused on transgender people. Studies highlight the burden of HIV and risk determinants, including intersecting stigmas, as drivers of syndemics among transgender populations. This review synthesizes the most recent global epidemiology of HIV infection and describes current gaps in research and interventions to inform prioritization of HIV research for transgender populations. Methods: A systematic review was conducted of the medical literature published between January 1, 2012 and November 30, 2015. The data focused on HIV prevalence, determinants of risk, and syndemics among transgender populations. Results: Estimates varied dramatically by location and subpopulation. Transfeminine individuals have some of the highest concentrated HIV epidemics in the world with laboratory-confirmed prevalence up to 40%. Data were sparse among trans masculine individuals; however, they suggest potential increased risk for trans masculine men who have sex with men (MSM). No prevalence data were available for transgender people across Sub-Saharan Africa or Eastern Europe/Central Asia. Emerging data consistently support the association of syndemic conditions with HIV risk in transgender populations. Discussion: Addressing syndemic conditions and gender-specific challenges is critical to ensure engagement and retention in HIV prevention by transgender populations. Future research should prioritize: filling knowledge gaps in HIV epidemiology; elucidating how stigma shapes syndemic factors to produce HIV and other deleterious effects on transgender health; and understanding how to effectively implement HIV interventions for transgender people. PMID:27429185

The environmental roots of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the epigenetic impacts of globalization.

PubMed

Vineis, Paolo; Stringhini, Silvia; Porta, Miquel

2014-08-01

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are increasing worldwide. We hypothesize that environmental factors (including social adversity, diet, lack of physical activity and pollution) can become "embedded" in the biology of humans. We also hypothesize that the "embedding" partly occurs because of epigenetic changes, i.e., durable changes in gene expression patterns. Our concern is that once such factors have a foundation in human biology, they can affect human health (including NCDs) over a long period of time and across generations. To analyze how worldwide changes in movements of goods, persons and lifestyles (globalization) may affect the "epigenetic landscape" of populations and through this have an impact on NCDs. We provide examples of such changes and effects by discussing the potential epigenetic impact of socio-economic status, migration, and diet, as well as the impact of environmental factors influencing trends in age at puberty. The study of durable changes in epigenetic patterns has the potential to influence policy and practice; for example, by enabling stratification of populations into those who could particularly benefit from early interventions to prevent NCDs, or by demonstrating mechanisms through which environmental factors influence disease risk, thus providing compelling evidence for policy makers, companies and the civil society at large. The current debate on the '25 × 25 strategy', a goal of 25% reduction in relative mortality from NCDs by 2025, makes the proposed approach even more timely. Epigenetic modifications related to globalization may crucially contribute to explain current and future patterns of NCDs, and thus deserve attention from environmental researchers, public health experts, policy makers, and concerned citizens. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use among youth globally: a systematic review and meta-analysis of country level data.

PubMed

Yoong, Sze Lin; Stockings, Emily; Chai, Li Kheng; Tzelepis, Flora; Wiggers, John; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Paul, Christine; Peruga, Armando; Kingsland, Melanie; Attia, John; Wolfenden, Luke

2018-06-01

To describe the prevalence and change in prevalence of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use in youth by country and combustible smoking status. Databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to December 2015. Studies describing the prevalence of ENDS use in the general population aged ≤20 years in a defined geographical region were included. Where multiple estimates were available within countries, prevalence estimates of ENDS use were pooled for each country separately. Data from 27 publications (36 surveys) from 13 countries were included. The prevalence of ENDS ever use in 2013-2015 among youth were highest in Poland (62.1%; 95%CI: 59.9-64.2%), and lowest in Italy (5.9%; 95%CI: 3.3-9.2%). Among non-smoking youth, the prevalence of ENDS ever use in 2013-2015 varied, ranging from 4.2% (95%CI: 3.8-4.6%) in the US to 14.0% in New Zealand (95%CI: 12.7-15.4%). The prevalence of ENDS ever use among current tobacco smoking youth was the highest in Canada (71.9%, 95%CI: 70.9-72.8%) and lowest in Italy (29.9%, 95%CI: 18.5-42.5%). Between 2008 and 2015, ENDS ever use among youth increased in Poland, Korea, New Zealand and the US; decreased in Italy and Canada; and remained stable in the UK. There is considerable heterogeneity in ENDS use among youth globally across countries and also between current smokers and non-smokers. Implications for public health: Population-level survey data on ENDS use is needed to inform public health policy and messaging globally. © 2018 The Authors.

Feral Cat Globetrotters: genetic traces of historical human-mediated dispersal.

PubMed

Koch, Katrin; Algar, Dave; Schwenk, Klaus

2016-08-01

Endemic species on islands are highly susceptible to local extinction, in particular if they are exposed to invasive species. Invasive predators, such as feral cats, have been introduced to islands around the world, causing major losses in local biodiversity. In order to control and manage invasive species successfully, information about source populations and level of gene flow is essential. Here, we investigate the origin of feral cats of Hawaiian and Australian islands to verify their European ancestry and a potential pattern of isolation by distance. We analyzed the genetic structure and diversity of feral cats from eleven islands as well as samples from Malaysia and Europe using mitochondrial DNA (ND5 and ND6 regions) and microsatellite DNA data. Our results suggest an overall European origin of Hawaiian cats with no pattern of isolation by distance between Australian, Malaysian, and Hawaiian populations. Instead, we found low levels of genetic differentiation between samples from Tasman Island, Lana'i, Kaho'olawe, Cocos (Keeling) Island, and Asia. As these populations are separated by up to 10,000 kilometers, we assume an extensive passive dispersal event along global maritime trade routes in the beginning of the 19th century, connecting Australian, Asian, and Hawaiian islands. Thus, islands populations, which are characterized by low levels of current gene flow, represent valuable sources of information on historical, human-mediated global dispersal patterns of feral cats.

Population Genetics of Hirsutella rhossiliensis, a Dominant Parasite of Cyst Nematode Juveniles on a Continental Scale.

PubMed

Wang, Niuniu; Zhang, Yongjie; Jiang, Xianzhi; Shu, Chi; Hamid, M Imran; Hussain, Muzammil; Chen, Senyu; Xu, Jianping; Xiang, Meichun; Liu, Xingzhong

2016-11-01

Hirsutella rhossiliensis is a parasite of juvenile nematodes, effective against a diversity of plant-parasitic nematodes. Its global distribution on various nematode hosts and its genetic variation for several geographic regions have been reported, while the global population genetic structure and factors underlying patterns of genetic variation of H. rhossiliensis are unclear. In this study, 87 H. rhossiliensis strains from five nematode species (Globodera sp., Criconemella xenoplax, Rotylenchus robustus, Heterodera schachtii, and Heterodera glycines) in Europe, the United States, and China were investigated by multilocus sequence analyses. A total of 280 variable sites (frequency, 0.6%) at eight loci and six clustering in high accordance with geographic populations or host nematode-associated populations were identified. Although H. rhossiliensis is currently recognized as an asexual fungus, recombination events were frequently detected. In addition, significant genetic isolation by geography and nematode hosts was revealed. Overall, our analyses showed that recombination, geographic isolation, and nematode host adaptation have played significant roles in the evolutionary history of H. rhossiliensis IMPORTANCE: H. rhossiliensis has great potential for use as a biocontrol agent to control nematodes in a sustainable manner as an endoparasitic fungus. Therefore, this study has important implications for the use of H. rhossiliensis as a biocontrol agent and provides interesting insights into the biology of this species. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Landscapes of West Africa: A window on a changing world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cotillon, Suzanne E.; Tappan, G. Gray

2016-01-01

Our global ecosystem is and has always been complex, dynamic, and in constant flux. Science tells us how natural forces of enormous power have shaped and reshaped Earth’s surface, atmosphere, climate, and biota again and again since the planet’s beginnings about 4.5 billion years ago. For most of the planet’s history those environmental changes were the result of the interaction of natural processes such as geology and climate and were described on the geological time scale in epochs spanning millions of years.When humankind appeared on Earth around 200,000 years ago the influence of human activity on the environment must have been small and localized. The influence of scattered small groups of people on the global ecosystem would have been overwhelmed by the forces of natural systems (Steffen and others, 207). Human population would not grow to 50 million (about 0.7 percent of the Earth’s current population) for another 197,000 years. Population growth accelerated over the centuries that followed until the planet was adding more than that 50 million people every year. Our planet is now home to roughly 7.3 billion people and we are adding 1 million more people roughly every 4.8 days (US Census Bureau, 2011). Before 1950, no one on Earth had lived through a doubling of the human population, but now some people have experienced a tripling in their lifetime (Cohen, 2003).

A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

PubMed

De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

2015-01-21

There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Synthesis and Critical Evaluation of Pharmaceutical Data Sets Collected from River Systems

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Pharmaceuticals have emerged as a major group of environmental contaminants over the past decade but relatively little is known about their occurrence in freshwaters compared to other pollutants. We present a global-scale analysis of the presence of 203 pharmaceuticals across 41 countries and show that contamination is extensive due to widespread consumption and subsequent disposal to rivers. There are clear regional biases in current understanding with little work outside North America, Europe, and China, and no work within Africa. Within individual countries, research is biased around a small number of populated provinces/states and the majority of research effort has focused upon just 14 compounds. Most research has adopted sampling techniques that are unlikely to provide reliable and representative data. This analysis highlights locations where concentrations of antibiotics, cardiovascular drugs, painkillers, contrast media, and antiepileptic drugs have been recorded well above thresholds known to cause toxic effects in aquatic biota. Studies of pharmaceutical occurrence and effects need to be seen as a global research priority due to increasing consumption, particularly among societies with aging populations. Researchers in all fields of environmental management need to work together more effectively to identify high risk compounds, improve the reliability and coverage of future monitoring studies, and develop new mitigation measures. PMID:23227929

Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Daniel E.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2014-08-01

Poor air quality causes an estimated 2.6-4.4 million premature deaths per year. Hazardous conditions form when meteorological components allow the accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere. Global-warming-driven changes to atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle are expected to alter the meteorological components that control pollutant build-up and dispersal, but the magnitude, direction, geographic footprint and public health impact of this alteration remain unclear. We used an air stagnation index and an ensemble of bias-corrected climate model simulations to quantify the response of stagnation occurrence and persistence to global warming. Our analysis projects increases in stagnation occurrence that cover 55% of the current global population, with areas of increase affecting ten times more people than areas of decrease. By the late twenty-first century, robust increases of up to 40 days per year are projected throughout the majority of the tropics and subtropics, as well as within isolated mid-latitude regions. Potential impacts over India, Mexico and the western US are particularly acute owing to the intersection of large populations and increases in the persistence of stagnation events, including those of extreme duration. These results indicate that anthropogenic climate change is likely to alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets.

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in developing countries; the current scenario in Pakistan.

PubMed

Yousaf, Muhammad Z; Zia, Sadia; Babar, Masroor E; Ashfaq, Usman A

2011-08-12

HIV (Human Immunodeficiency virus) causes (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) AIDS, in which the immune system of body totally fails to develop any defense against the foreign invaders. Infection with HIV occurs by transfer of blood, semen, and breast milk. HIV/AIDS is a global problem and it results nearly 25 million deaths worldwide. Developing countries like Pakistan have issues regarding Public Health. Currently, epidemic of HIV/AIDS is established in Pakistan and there is a threat of an expanded HIV/AIDS outbreak in the country. The major reason is that population is engaging in high-risk practices, low awareness about HIV/AIDS, and treacherous blood transfusion practices. A supplementary threat to Pakistan is India because both sharing a border and India is facing a rapidly growing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Local NGOs, National and International organizations are warning that in near future Pakistan may experiences bad situation regarding HIV/AIDS.In the present article we focused current situation of surveillance of HIV/AIDS, its virology, genotype, diagnostics, high-risk groups, reasons of vulnerability in Pakistani population, and the role of different national and international organizations in this situation.

Cardiac Involvement with Parasitic Infections

PubMed Central

Hidron, Alicia; Vogenthaler, Nicholas; Santos-Preciado, José I.; Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J.; Franco-Paredes, Carlos; Rassi, Anis

2010-01-01

Summary: Parasitic infections previously seen only in developing tropical settings can be currently diagnosed worldwide due to travel and population migration. Some parasites may directly or indirectly affect various anatomical structures of the heart, with infections manifested as myocarditis, pericarditis, pancarditis, or pulmonary hypertension. Thus, it has become quite relevant for clinicians in developed settings to consider parasitic infections in the differential diagnosis of myocardial and pericardial disease anywhere around the globe. Chagas' disease is by far the most important parasitic infection of the heart and one that it is currently considered a global parasitic infection due to the growing migration of populations from areas where these infections are highly endemic to settings where they are not endemic. Current advances in the treatment of African trypanosomiasis offer hope to prevent not only the neurological complications but also the frequently identified cardiac manifestations of this life-threatening parasitic infection. The lack of effective vaccines, optimal chemoprophylaxis, or evidence-based pharmacological therapies to control many of the parasitic diseases of the heart, in particular Chagas' disease, makes this disease one of the most important public health challenges of our time. PMID:20375355

Introduction beyond a species range: a relationship between population origin, adaptive potential and plant performance.

PubMed

Volis, S; Ormanbekova, D; Yermekbayev, K; Song, M; Shulgina, I

2014-09-01

The adaptive potential of a population defines its importance for species survival in changing environmental conditions such as global climate change. Very few empirical studies have examined adaptive potential across species' ranges, namely, of edge vs core populations, and we are unaware of a study that has tested adaptive potential (namely, variation in adaptive traits) and measured performance of such populations in conditions not currently experienced by the species but expected in the future. Here we report the results of a Triticum dicoccoides population study that employed transplant experiments and analysis of quantitative trait variation. Two populations at the opposite edges of the species range (1) were locally adapted; (2) had lower adaptive potential (inferred from the extent of genetic quantitative trait variation) than the two core populations; and (3) were outperformed by the plants from the core population in the novel environment. The fact that plants from the species arid edge performed worse than plants from the more mesic core in extreme drought conditions beyond the present climatic envelope of the species implies that usage of peripheral populations for conservation purposes must be based on intensive sampling of among-population variation.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

History and current trends in influenza virus infections with special reference to Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Rafeek, R A M; Divarathna, M V M; Noordeen, F

2017-09-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that approximately one billion people are infected and up to 500,000 people die from influenza each year in the world. Influenza is considered to be the greatest killer of the human populations, due to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed millions around the world. Despite the effective treatment available against influenza, it still contributes to significant morbidity and mortality. Currently circulating influenza strains in humans include influenza A (H1N1)pdm09, influenza A (H3N2) and influenza B viruses, (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata). Influenza has been prevalent in Sri Lanka from 1969, since then it continued to cause morbidity and mortality in children and adults. The current global influenza surveillance network monitors the global influenza activity through WHO collaborating centres. The Medical Research Institute monitors and diagnoses influenza cases in the country as part of the WHO network laboratories. Vaccinations to high risk groups and antiviral therapy for the successful prevention of influenza have been practiced in Sri Lanka. This review highlights the impact of influenza on public health in Sri Lanka including the historical aspects, current diagnostic practices and prevention approaches in high risk individuals in the country.

Isolating the effects of surface vasculature in infant neuroimaging using short-distance optical channels: a combination of local and global effects

PubMed Central

Emberson, Lauren L.; Crosswhite, Stephen L.; Goodwin, James R.; Berger, Andrew J.; Aslin, Richard N.

2016-01-01

Abstract. Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) records hemodynamic changes in the cortex arising from neurovascular coupling. However, (noninvasive) fNIRS recordings also record surface vascular signals arising from noncortical sources (e.g., in the skull, skin, dura, and other tissues located between the sensors and the brain). A current and important focus in the fNIRS community is determining how to remove these noncortical vascular signals to reduce noise and to prevent researchers from erroneously attributing responses to cortical sources. The current study is the first to test a popular method for removing signals from the surface vasculature (removing short, 1 cm, channel recordings from long, 3 cm, channel recordings) in human infants, a population frequently studied using fNIRS. We find evidence that this method does remove surface vasculature signals and indicates the presence of both local and global surface vasculature signals. However, we do not find that the removal of this information changes the statistical inferences drawn from the data. This latter result not only questions the importance of removing surface vasculature responses for empiricists employing this method, but also calls for future research using other tasks (e.g., ones with a weaker initial result) with this population and possibly additional methods for removing signals arising from the surface vasculature in infants. PMID:27158631

Study of a tri-trophic prey-dependent food chain model of interacting populations.

PubMed

Haque, Mainul; Ali, Nijamuddin; Chakravarty, Santabrata

2013-11-01

The current paper accounts for the influence of intra-specific competition among predators in a prey dependent tri-trophic food chain model of interacting populations. We offer a detailed mathematical analysis of the proposed food chain model to illustrate some of the significant results that has arisen from the interplay of deterministic ecological phenomena and processes. Biologically feasible equilibria of the system are observed and the behaviours of the system around each of them are described. In particular, persistence, stability (local and global) and bifurcation (saddle-node, transcritical, Hopf-Andronov) analysis of this model are obtained. Relevant results from previous well known food chain models are compared with the current findings. Global stability analysis is also carried out by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. Numerical simulations show that the present system is capable enough to produce chaotic dynamics when the rate of self-interaction is very low. On the other hand such chaotic behaviour disappears for a certain value of the rate of self interaction. In addition, numerical simulations with experimented parameters values confirm the analytical results and shows that intra-specific competitions bears a potential role in controlling the chaotic dynamics of the system; and thus the role of self interactions in food chain model is illustrated first time. Finally, a discussion of the ecological applications of the analytical and numerical findings concludes the paper. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Are nondrinkers missing from the picture?

PubMed

Bakke, Øystein

2015-03-01

WHO statistics indicate that half the world's population does not drink alcohol. With a Western outlook this fact is often overlooked. The article explores the global drinking patterns focusing on non-drinking and the global forces that contribute towards change. The large segment of non-drinking population is beneficial for public health but it is also seen as a great potential for the international alcoholic beverage industry. The forces of globalization towards conformity and a global mono-culture deprived of cultural diversity also affects non-drinking populations, to the detriment of public health.

Dengue — Quo tu et quo vadis?

PubMed Central

Chen, Rubing; Vasilakis, Nikos

2011-01-01

Dengue viruses (DENV) are by far the most important arboviral pathogens in the tropics around the world, putting at risk of infection nearly a third of the global human population. DENV are members of the genus Flavivirus in the Family Flaviviridae and comprise four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV-1-4). Although they share almost identical epidemiological features, they are genetically distinct. Phylogenetic analyses have revealed valuable insights into the origins, epidemiology and the forces that shape DENV evolution in nature. In this review, we examine the current status of DENV evolution, including but not limited to rates of evolution, selection pressures, population sizes and evolutionary constraints, and we discuss how these factors influence transmission, pathogenesis and emergence. PMID:21994796

Social Media, Big Data, and Mental Health: Current Advances and Ethical Implications

PubMed Central

Conway, Mike; O’Connor, Daniel

2016-01-01

Mental health (including substance abuse) is the fifth greatest contributor to the global burden of disease, with an economic cost estimated to be US $2.5 trillion in 2010, and expected to double by 2030. Developing information systems to support and strengthen population-level mental health monitoring forms a core part of the World Health Organization’s Comprehensive Action Plan 2013–2020. In this paper, we review recent work that utilizes social media “big data” in conjunction with associated technologies like natural language processing and machine learning to address pressing problems in population-level mental health surveillance and research, focusing both on technological advances and core ethical challenges. PMID:27042689

The epidemiology of acne vulgaris in late adolescence.

PubMed

Lynn, Darren D; Umari, Tamara; Dunnick, Cory A; Dellavalle, Robert P

2016-01-01

Acne vulgaris is the most common skin condition affecting late adolescents across the globe. Although prior studies have evaluated epidemiologic patterns of acne vulgaris in various ethnicities and regions, adequate understanding of the worldwide burden of the disease associated with patients in their late adolescence (15-19-year olds) remains lacking. To assess the global burden of the disease associated with acne vulgaris for late adolescents (15-19-year olds) and provide an overview of the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and treatment options for acne in this population. Database summary study. Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 database. Global Burden of Disease regions comprised countries with prevalence of acne vulgaris between the ages of 15 and 19 years. Geographic region-level disability-adjusted life year rates (per 100,000 persons) associated with acne vulgaris in years 1990 through 2010. Median percentage change in disability-adjusted life year rates was estimated for each region across the specified study period. Acne vulgaris-associated disease burden exhibits global distribution and has continued to grow in prevalence over time within this population. This continued growth suggests an unmet dermatologic need worldwide for this disorder and potential opportunities for improved access and delivery of dermatologic care. Our analysis of the literature reveals numerous opportunities for enhanced patient care. To that end, we highlight some of the effective and promising treatments currently available and address important factors, such as sex, nationality, genetics, pathophysiology, and diet, as they relate to acne vulgaris in late adolescence.

Trump, Brexit, Right-wing Anti-globalisation, and An Uncertain Future for Public Health

PubMed Central

Macgregor-Bowles, Isabelle; Bowles, Devin C.

2017-01-01

Global public health is intimately linked with political, economic and social determinants. The current global order has been built on the assumption that the globalisation agenda shared by political elites of the last several decades will continue. Individuals, businesses and countries have all made decisions, many of them linked to health, based on this assumption. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency and the vote in Britain to exit the European Union exemplify a recent wave of right-wing anti-globalisation, which has risen in much of the West. The right-wing anti-globalisation movement will substantially affect global health through four pathways. Restrictions on trade will dampen economic growth and could diminish food security and the availability of medical supplies. Xenophobia will harm mental health through the lived experience of minorities, and will elevate the risk of economic and military conflict between countries. Increased defence expenditure in a time of limited government budgets will constrict funding available for healthcare and the social determinants of health. Mistrust of international treaties, including for climate change, will undermine the Paris Agreement and hasten greenhouse gas emissions. Without rapid mitigation, climate change could devastate population health globally through a range of mechanisms, including diminished food security and increased violent conflict. These would amplify many of the other health effects of right-wing anti-globalisation. By emphasising the shared humanity of all people, population health offers an antidote to the narrow focus of right-wing anti-globalisation. PMID:29546210

Trump, Brexit, Right-wing Anti-globalisation, and An Uncertain Future for Public Health.

PubMed

Macgregor-Bowles, Isabelle; Bowles, Devin C

2017-01-01

Global public health is intimately linked with political, economic and social determinants. The current global order has been built on the assumption that the globalisation agenda shared by political elites of the last several decades will continue. Individuals, businesses and countries have all made decisions, many of them linked to health, based on this assumption. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency and the vote in Britain to exit the European Union exemplify a recent wave of right-wing anti-globalisation, which has risen in much of the West. The right-wing anti-globalisation movement will substantially affect global health through four pathways. Restrictions on trade will dampen economic growth and could diminish food security and the availability of medical supplies. Xenophobia will harm mental health through the lived experience of minorities, and will elevate the risk of economic and military conflict between countries. Increased defence expenditure in a time of limited government budgets will constrict funding available for healthcare and the social determinants of health. Mistrust of international treaties, including for climate change, will undermine the Paris Agreement and hasten greenhouse gas emissions. Without rapid mitigation, climate change could devastate population health globally through a range of mechanisms, including diminished food security and increased violent conflict. These would amplify many of the other health effects of right-wing anti-globalisation. By emphasising the shared humanity of all people, population health offers an antidote to the narrow focus of right-wing anti-globalisation.

Computing Pathways for Urban Decarbonization.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, R.; Sommer, P.

2016-12-01

Urban areas emit roughly three quarters of global carbon emissions. Cities are crucial elements for a decarbonized society. Urban expansion and related transportation needs lead to increased energy use, and to carbon-intensive lock-ins that create barriers for climate change mitigation globally. The authors present the Integrated Urban Complexity (IUC) model, based on self-organizing Cellular Automata (CA), and use it to produce a new kind of spatially explicit Transformation Pathways for Urban Decarbonization (TPUD). IUC is based on statistical evidence relating the energy needed for transportation with the spatial distribution of population, specifically IUC incorporates variables from complexity science related to urban form, like the slope of the rank-size rule or spatial entropy, which brings IUC a step beyond existing models. The CA starts its evolution with real-world urban land use and population distribution data from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Thus, the IUC model runs over existing urban settlements, transforming the spatial distribution of population so the energy consumption for transportation is minimized. The statistical evidence that governs the evolution of the CA departs from the database of the International Association of Public Transport. A selected case is presented using Stuttgart (Germany) as an example. The results show how IUC varies urban density in those places where it improves the performance of crucial parameters related to urban form, producing a TPUD that shows where the spatial distribution of population should be modified with a degree of detail of 250 meters of cell size. The TPUD shows how the urban complex system evolves over time to minimize energy consumption for transportation. The resulting dynamics or urban decarbonization show decreased energy per capita, although total energy increases for increasing population. The results provide innovative insights: by checking current urban planning against a TPUD, urban planners could understand where existing plans contradict the Agenda 2030, primarily the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Climate Action (SDG 13), and Sustainable Cities and Communities (SDG 11). For the first time, evidence-based transformation pathways are produced to decarbonize cities.

Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Byrnes, Graham; Renehan, Prof Andrew G; Stevens, Gretchen A; Ezzati, Prof Majid; Ferlay, Jacques; Miranda, J. Jaime; Romieu, Isabelle; Dikshit, Rajesh; Forman, David; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

2015-01-01

Background Excess body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of cancer. To inform public health policyand future research, we estimated the global burden of cancer attributable to excess BMI. Methods Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were derived using relative risks and BMI estimates in adults by age, sex and country. Assuming a10-year lag-period, PAFs were calculated using BMI estimates in 2002. GLOBOCAN2012 was used to compute numbers of new cancer cases attributable to excess BMI. In an alternative scenario, we computed the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers assuming that populations maintained their BMI-level observed in 1982. Secondary analyses were performed to test the model and estimate the impactof hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and smoking. Findings Worldwide, we estimated that 481,000 or 3·6% of all new cancer cases in 2012 were attributable to excess BMI. PAFs were greater in women compared with men (5·4% versus 1·9%). The burden was concentrated in countries with very high and high human development index (HDI, PAF: 5·3% and 4·8%) compared with countries with moderate and low HDI (PAF: 1·6% and 1·0%). Corpus uteri, post-menopausal breast and colon cancers accounted for approximately two-thirds (64%) of excess BMI attributable cancers. One fourth (~118,000) of all cases related to excess BMI in 2012 could be attributed to the rising BMI since 1982. Interpretation These findings further underpin the need for a global effort to abate the rising trends in population-level excess weight. Assuming that the relationship between excess BMI and cancer is causal and the current pattern of population weight gain continues, this will likely augment the future burden of cancer. Funding World Cancer Research Fund, Marie Currie Fellowship, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia and US NIH. PMID:25467404

Mapping Global Urban Extent and Intensity for Environmental Monitoring and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, A.; Friedl, M. A.

2007-05-01

The human dimensions of global environmental change have received increased attention in policy, decision- making, research, and even the media. However, the influence of urban areas in global change processes is still often assumed to be negligible. Although local environmental conditions such as the urban heat island effect are well-documented, little or no work has focused on cross-scale interactions, or the ways in which local urban processes cumulatively impact global changes. Given the rapid rates of rural-urban migration, economic development and urban spatial expansion, it is becoming increasingly clear that the `ecological footprint' of cities may play a critical role in environmental changes at regional and global scales. Our understanding of the cumulative impacts of urban areas on natural systems has been limited foremost by a lack of reliable, accurate data on current urban form and extent at the global scale. The data sets that have emerged to fill this gap (LandScan, GRUMP, nighttime lights) suffer from a number of limitations that prevent widespread use. Building on our early efforts with MODIS data, our current work focuses on: (1) completing a new, validated map of global urban extent; and (2) developing methods to estimate the subpixel fraction of impervious surface, vegetation, and other land cover types within urbanized areas using coarse resolution satellite imagery. For the first task, a technique called boosting is used to improve classification accuracy and provides a means to integrate 500 m resolution MODIS data with ancillary data sources. For the second task, we present an approach for estimating percent cover that relies on continuous training data for a full range of city types. These exemplars are used as inputs to fuzzy neural network and regression tree algorithms to predict fractional amounts of land cover types with increased accuracy. Preliminary results for a global sample of 100 cities (which vary in population size, level of economic development, and spatial extent) show good agreement with the expected morphology in each region.

"Globalized public health." A transdisciplinary comprehensive framework for analyzing contemporary globalization's influences on the field of public health.

PubMed

Lapaige, Véronique

2009-01-01

The current phase of globalization represents a "double-edged sword" challenge facing public health practitioners and health policy makers. The first "edge" throws light on two constructs in the field of public health: global health (formerly international health) and globalized public health. The second "edge" is that of global governance, and raises the question, "how can we construct public health regulations that adequately respond to both global and local complexities related to the two constructs mentioned earlier (global health and globalized public health)?" The two constructs call for the development of norms that will assure sustained population-wide health improvement and these two constructs have their own conceptual tools and theoretical models that permit a better understanding of them. In this paper, we introduce the "globalized public health" construct and we present an interactive comprehensive framework for critically analyzing contemporary globalization's influences on the field of public health. "Globalized public health", simultaneously a theoretical model and a conceptual framework, concerns the transformation of the field of public health in the sociohistorical context of globalization. The model is the fruit of an original theoretical research study conducted from 2005 to 2008 ("contextualized research," Gibbons' Mode II of knowledge production), founded on a QUAL-quant sequential mixed-method design. This research also reflects our political and ideological position, fuelled with aspirations of social democracy and cosmopolitical values. It is profoundly anchored in the pragmatic approach to globalization, looking to "reconcile" the market and equity. The model offers several features to users: (1) it is transdisciplinary; (2) it is interactive (CD-ROM); (3) it is nonlinear (nonlinear interrelations between the contextual globalization and the field of public health); (4) it is synchronic/diachronic (a double-crossed perspective permits analysis of global social change, the emergence of global agency and the transmutation of the field of public health, in the full complexity of their nonlinear interaction); (5) it offers five characteristics as an auto-eco-organized system of social interactions, or dynamic, nonlinear sociohistorical system. The model features a visual interface (five interrelated figures), a structure of 30 "integrator concepts" that integrates 114 other element-parts via 1,300 hypertext links. The model is both a knowledge translation tool and an interactive heuristic guide designed for practitioners and researchers in public health/community health/population health, as well as for decision-makers at all levels.

Global 2000 Countdown Kit.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zero Population Growth, Inc., Washington, DC.

Fourteen units for high school global education classes are based on "The Global 2000 Report to the President," which examines the relationships between worldwide population growth and resource and environmental consequences. Topics of the units are population; income; food; fisheries; forests; water; nonfuel minerals; energy; impacts on…

Incorporation of a Global Surgery Rotation into an Academic General Surgery Residency Program: Impact and Perceptions.

PubMed

LeCompte, Michael Thomas; Goldman, Connor; Tarpley, John L; Tarpley, Margaret; Hansen, Erik N; Nthumba, Peter M; Terhune, Kyla P; Kauffmann, Rondi M

2018-03-14

Global surgery is increasingly recognized as a vital component of international public health. Access to basic surgical care is limited in much of the world, resulting in a global burden of treatable disease. To address the lack of surgical workforce in underserved environments and to foster ongoing interest in global health among US-trained surgeons, our institution established a residency rotation through partnership with an academic hospital in Kijabe, Kenya. This study evaluates the perceptions of residents involved in the rotation, as well as its impact on their future involvement in global health. A retrospective review of admission applications from residents matriculating at our institution was conducted to determine stated interest in global surgery. These were compared to post-rotation evaluations and follow-up surveys to assess interest in global surgery and the effects of the rotation on the practices of the participants. A total of 78 residents matriculated from 2006 to 2016. Seventeen participated in the rotation with 76% of these reporting high satisfaction with the rotation. Sixty-five percent had no prior experience providing health care in an international setting. Post-rotation surveys revealed an increase in global surgery interest among participants. Long-term interest was demonstrated in 33% (n = 6) who reported ongoing activity in global health in their current practices. Participation in global rotations was also associated with increased interest in domestically underserved populations and affected economic and cost decisions within graduates' practices.

A model for cross-cultural reciprocal interactions through mass media.

PubMed

González-Avella, Juan Carlos; Cosenza, Mario G; San Miguel, Maxi

2012-01-01

We investigate the problem of cross-cultural interactions through mass media in a model where two populations of social agents, each with its own internal dynamics, get information about each other through reciprocal global interactions. As the agent dynamics, we employ Axelrod's model for social influence. The global interaction fields correspond to the statistical mode of the states of the agents and represent mass media messages on the cultural trend originating in each population. Several phases are found in the collective behavior of either population depending on parameter values: two homogeneous phases, one having the state of the global field acting on that population, and the other consisting of a state different from that reached by the applied global field; and a disordered phase. In addition, the system displays nontrivial effects: (i) the emergence of a largest minority group of appreciable size sharing a state different from that of the applied global field; (ii) the appearance of localized ordered states for some values of parameters when the entire system is observed, consisting of one population in a homogeneous state and the other in a disordered state. This last situation can be considered as a social analogue to a chimera state arising in globally coupled populations of oscillators.

Value-Based Care in the Worldwide Battle Against Cancer.

PubMed

Johansen, Niloufer J; Saunders, Christobel M

2017-02-17

Globally, an increasing and aging population is contributing to the prevalence of cancer. To be effective, cancer care needs to involve the coordination of multidisciplinary specialties, and also needs to be affordable, accessible, and capable of producing optimal patient outcomes. Porter and Teisberg (2006) have postulated that shifting current healthcare strategies from volume-based to patient-centric care redirects economic competition to providing treatments which promote the best patient outcomes while driving down costs. Therefore, the value in value-based healthcare (VBH) is defined as patient outcome per currency spent on providing care. Based on the experiences of healthcare organizations currently transitioning to the value-based system, this review details actionable guidelines to transition current cancer care practices to the value-based system in four main steps: by defining universal clinical and patient-reported measures, creating cancer-specific units that provide the full care cycle, establishing a data capture model to routinely determine the value of the care delivered, and continually improving treatment strategies through research. As healthcare providers in more developed countries move to value-based care, those located in less developed countries should also be assisted in their transition to relieve the cancer burden globally.

Surveillance of Human Rabies by National Authorities--A Global Survey.

PubMed

Taylor, L H; Knopf, L

2015-11-01

Effective prevention of deaths due to human rabies is currently hampered by a lack of understanding of the scale of the problem, and the distribution of both animal and human cases across countries, regions and continents. Unfortunately, despite the severity of the disease, accurate data on which to assess these questions and to prioritize and direct public health interventions are not available for many parts of the world. This survey sought to understand the current global situation regarding the surveillance of human rabies. Data were collected from 91 countries across all continents and all categories of human rabies risk, generating the most complete and representative global data set currently available. Respondents were asked key questions about whether human rabies was a notifiable disease, how the surveillance system for human rabies operated and whether the respondent considered that the surveillance system was working effectively. Across the 91 countries from which data were collated, human rabies was a notifiable disease in all but eight. Despite international guidance, surveillance systems were very varied. Even where rabies is a notifiable disease, many countries had surveillance system judged to be ineffective, almost all of these being high and moderate rabies risk countries in Africa and Asia. Overall, 41% of the population covered by this survey (around 2.5 billion people) live in countries where there is no or ineffective rabies surveillance. The lack of robust surveillance is hindering rabies control efforts. However, whilst worldwide rabies surveillance would be improved if rabies were notifiable in all countries, many other challenges to the implementation of effective global human rabies surveillance systems remain. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Tobacco smoking trends in Samoa over four decades: can continued globalization rectify that which it has wrought?

PubMed

Linhart, Christine; Naseri, Take; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; McGarvey, Stephen T; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-06-12

The island country of Samoa (population 188,000 in 2011) forms part of Polynesia in the South Pacific. Over the past several decades Samoa has experienced exceptional modernization and globalization of many sectors of society, with noncommunicable diseases (NCD) now the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. The evolution of risk factor prevalence underpinning the increase in NCDs, however, has not been well described, including tobacco smoking which is related to cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The present study examines tobacco smoking in relation to different forms and effects of globalization in Samoa using 7 population-based surveys (n = 9223) over 1978-2013. The prevalence of daily tobacco smoking steadily decreased over 1978-2013 from 76% to 36% in men, and from 27% to 15% in women (p < 0.0001 both sexes). During 1991-2013, current tobacco smoking also steadily decreased from 64% to 40% in men (p < 0.0001), and from 21% to 17% in women (p < 0.05). Declines were similar in younger (25-44 years) and older (45-64 years) men and women. Colonial globalization facilitated the introduction and prolific spread of tobacco trade and consumption in the Pacific Islands from the sixteenth century, with many populations inexorably pulled into trade relations and links to the global economy. It has also been a different globalization which may have led to the decline in smoking prevalence in Samoa in recent decades, through global dissemination since the 1950s of information on the harmful effects of tobacco smoking derived from research studies in the USA and Europe. Over the past 35 years tobacco smoking has steadily declined among Samoan adults; the only NCD risk factor to demonstrate marked declines during this period. By 2013 tobacco smoking in women had decreased to levels similar to Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), however in men smoking prevalence remained more than three times higher than ANZ. The impact on smoking prevalence of the variety of tobacco control interventions that have been implemented so far in Samoa need to be evaluated in order to determine the most effective initiatives that should be prioritized and strengthened.

Long-term herbarium data reveal the decline of a temperate-water algae at its southern range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riera, Rodrigo; Sangil, Carlos; Sansón, Marta

2015-11-01

Distributional shifts of marine species have recently received attention as a result of increasing man-induced pressures on coastal ecosystems and global climate change (i.e. ocean warming). The southernmost geographical limit of the fucoid Fucus guiryi is the Canarian archipelago (Northeastern Atlantic Ocean) where this species is currently forming scarce and low-dense populations. Studies on long-term herbarium data revealed the decrease in size of morphological features (length and width of thallus and receptacles), and recent surveys confirmed the sharp decline, or even extinction, of F. guiryi from most sites previously documented. The increase of mean seawater surface temperature consistently matches the regression of populations of F. guiryi. Other environmental variables, such as wave exposure, cloud cover and chlorophyll-a concentration, contributed to explain local-scale spatial variability detected in Canarian populations.

Landscape connectivity among remnant populations of guanaco (Lama guanicoe Müller, 1776) in an arid region of Chile impacted by global change

PubMed Central

Espinosa, Mara I.; Gouin, Nicolas; Squeo, Francisco A.; López, David

2018-01-01

Connectivity between populations plays a key role in the long-term persistence of species in fragmented habitats. This is of particular concern for biodiversity preservation in drylands, since water limited landscapes are typically characterized by little suitable habitat cover, high habitat fragmentation, harsh matrices, and are being rapidly degraded at a global scale. In this study, we modelled landscape connectivity between 11 guanaco Lama guanicoe populations in Chile’s arid Norte Chico, a region that supports the last remnant coastal populations of this emblematic herbivore indigenous to South America. We produced a habitat suitability model to derive a regional surface resistance map, and used circuit theory to map functional connectivity, investigate the relative isolation between populations, and identify those that contribute most to the patch connectivity network. Predicted suitable habitat for L. guanicoe represented about 25% of the study region (i.e., 29,173 km2) and was heterogeneously distributed along a continuous stretch along the Andes, and discontinuous patches along the coast. As a result, we found that high connectivity current flows in the mid and high Andes formed a wide, continuous connectivity corridor, enabling connectivity between all high Andean populations. Coastal populations, in contrast, were more isolated. These groups demonstrate no inter-population connectivity between themselves, only with higher altitude populations, and for two of them, animal movement was linked to the effectiveness of wildlife crossings along the Pan-American highway. Our results indicate that functional connectivity is an issue of concern for L. guanicoe in Chile’s Norte Chico, implying that future conservation and management plans should emphasize strategies aimed at conserving functional connectivity between coastal and Andean populations, as well as the protection of habitat patches likely to act as stepping stones within the connectivity network. PMID:29507827

Metabolic and reproductive plasticity of core and marginal populations of the eurythermic saline water bug Sigara selecta (Hemiptera: Corixidae) in a climate change context.

PubMed

Carbonell, J A; Bilton, D T; Calosi, P; Millán, A; Stewart, A; Velasco, J

2017-04-01

Ongoing climate change is driving dramatic range shifts in diverse taxa worldwide, and species responses to global change are likely to be determined largely by population responses at geographical range margins. Here we investigate the metabolic and reproductive plasticity in response to water temperature and salinity variation of two populations of the eurythermic saline water bug Sigara selecta: one population located close to the northern edge of its distribution, in a relatively cold, thermally stable region (SE England - 'marginal'), and one close to the range centre, in a warmer and more thermally variable Mediterranean climate (SE Spain - 'core'). We compared metabolic and oviposition rates and egg size, following exposure to one of four different combinations of temperature (15 and 25°C) and salinity (10 and 35gL -1 ). Oviposition rate was significantly higher in the marginal population, although eggs laid were smaller overall. No significant differences in oxygen consumption rates were found between core and marginal populations, although the marginal population showed higher levels of plasticity in both metabolic and reproductive traits. Our results suggest that population-specific responses to environmental change are complex and may be mediated by differences in phenotypic plasticity. In S. selecta, the higher plasticity of the marginal population may facilitate both its persistence in current habitats and northward expansion with future climatic warming. The less plastic core population may be able to buffer current environmental variability with minor changes in metabolism and fecundity, but could be prone to extinction if temperature and salinity changes exceed physiological tolerance limits in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Powell Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reath, K.; Pritchard, M. E.; Poland, M. P.; Wessels, R. L.; Biggs, J.; Carn, S. A.; Griswold, J. P.; Ogburn, S. E.; Wright, R.; Lundgren, P.; Andrews, B. J.; Wauthier, C.; Lopez, T.; Vaughan, R. G.; Rumpf, M. E.; Webley, P. W.; Loughlin, S.; Meyer, F. J.; Pavolonis, M. J.

2017-12-01

Hazards from volcanic eruptions pose risks to the lives and livelihood of local populations, with potential global impacts to businesses, agriculture, and air travel. The 2015 Global Assessment of Risk report notes that 800 million people are estimated to live within 100 km of 1400 subaerial volcanoes identified as having eruption potential. However, only 55% of these volcanoes have any type of ground-based monitoring. The only methods currently available to monitor these unmonitored volcanoes are space-based systems that provide a global view. However, with the explosion of data techniques and sensors currently available, taking full advantage of these resources can be challenging. The USGS Powell Center Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group is working with many partners to optimize satellite resources for global detection of volcanic unrest and assessment of potential eruption hazards. In this presentation we will describe our efforts to: 1) work with space agencies to target acquisitions from the international constellation of satellites to collect the right types of data at volcanoes with forecasting potential; 2) collaborate with the scientific community to develop databases of remotely acquired observations of volcanic thermal, degassing, and deformation signals to facilitate change detection and assess how these changes are (or are not) related to eruption; and 3) improve usage of satellite observations by end users at volcano observatories that report to their respective governments. Currently, the group has developed time series plots for 48 Latin American volcanoes that incorporate variations in thermal, degassing, and deformation readings over time. These are compared against eruption timing and ground-based data provided by the Smithsonian Institute Global Volcanism Program. Distinct patterns in unrest and eruption are observed at different volcanoes, illustrating the difficulty in developing generalizations, but highlighting the power of remote sensing to better understand each volcano's behavior. To share these results with end users, the group is developing a communication tool that would allow researchers to share information relating to specific volcanoes or regions, although it is currently under development as we work to determine the clearest lines of communication.

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watters, T. R.; Weber, R. C.; Collins, G. C.; Johnson, C. L.

2017-01-01

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. Stresses due to orbital recession do not change with orbital position, thus it is with the addition of diurnal stresses that peak stresses are reached. At apogee, diurnal and recession stresses are most compressive near the tidal axis, while at perigee they are most compressive 90 degrees away from the tidal axis. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we show the results of relocating the shallow moonquake using an algorithm designed for sparse networks to better constrain their epicentral locations in order to compare them with stress models. The model for the current stress state of the Moon is refined by investigating the contribution of polar wander.

Carbon Monoxide Data Assimilation for Atmospheric Composition and Climate Science: Evaluating Performance with Current and Future Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barre, J.; Edwards, D. P.; Gaubert, B.; Worden, H. M.; Arellano, A. F.; Anderson, J. L.

2015-12-01

Current satellite observations of tropospheric composition made from low Earth orbit provide at best one or two measurements each day at any given location. Comparisons of Terra/MOPITT carbon monoxide (CO) and IASI/Metop CO observation assimilations will be presented. We use the DART Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter to assimilate observations in the CAM-Chem global chemistry-climate model. Data assimilation impacts due to both different instrument capabilities (i.e. vertical sensitivity and global coverage) will be discussed. Coverage is global but sparse, often with large uncertainties in individual measurements that limit examination of local and regional atmospheric composition over short time periods. This has hindered the operational uptake of these data for monitoring air quality and population exposure, and for initializing and evaluating chemical weather forecasts. By the end of the current decade there are planned geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations of continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability on diurnal and local scales. We describe Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate the contributions of these GEO missions to improve knowledge of near-surface air pollution due to intercontinental long-range transport and quantify chemical precursor emissions. Our approach uses an efficient computational method to sample a high-resolution global GEOS-5 chemistry Nature Run over each geographical region of the GEO constellation. The demonstration carbon monoxide (CO) observation simulator, which will be expanded to other chemical pollutants, currently produces multispectral retrievals (MOPITT-like) and captures realistic scene-dependent variation in measurement vertical sensitivity and cloud cover. The impact of observing over each region is evaluated independently. Winter and summer cases studies are investigated i.e. where emissions, cloud cover and CO lifetime significantly change.

The Role of Ocean Currents in the Temperature Selection of Plankton: Insights from an Individual-Based Model

PubMed Central

Hellweger, Ferdi L.; van Sebille, Erik; Calfee, Benjamin C.; Chandler, Jeremy W.; Zinser, Erik R.; Swan, Brandon K.; Fredrick, Neil D.

2016-01-01

Biogeography studies that correlate the observed distribution of organisms to environmental variables are typically based on local conditions. However, in cases with substantial translocation, like planktonic organisms carried by ocean currents, selection may happen upstream and local environmental factors may not be representative of those that shaped the local population. Here we use an individual-based model of microbes in the global surface ocean to explore this effect for temperature. We simulate up to 25 million individual cells belonging to up to 50 species with different temperature optima. Microbes are moved around the globe based on a hydrodynamic model, and grow and die based on local temperature. We quantify the role of currents using the “advective temperature differential” metric, which is the optimum temperature of the most abundant species from the model with advection minus that from the model without advection. This differential depends on the location and can be up to 4°C. Poleward-flowing currents, like the Gulf Stream, generally experience cooling and the differential is positive. We apply our results to three global datasets. For observations of optimum growth temperature of phytoplankton, accounting for the effect of currents leads to a slightly better agreement with observations, but there is large variability and the improvement is not statistically significant. For observed Prochlorococcus ecotype ratios and metagenome nucleotide divergence, accounting for advection improves the correlation significantly, especially in areas with relatively strong poleward or equatorward currents. PMID:27907181

Bordetella pertussis evolution in the (functional) genomics era.

PubMed

Belcher, Thomas; Preston, Andrew

2015-11-01

The incidence of whooping cough caused by Bordetella pertussis in many developed countries has risen dramatically in recent years. This has been linked to the use of an acellular pertussis vaccine. In addition, it is thought that B. pertussis is adapting under acellular vaccine mediated immune selection pressure, towards vaccine escape. Genomics-based approaches have revolutionized the ability to resolve the fine structure of the global B. pertussis population and its evolution during the era of vaccination. Here, we discuss the current picture of B. pertussis evolution and diversity in the light of the current resurgence, highlight import questions raised by recent studies in this area and discuss the role that functional genomics can play in addressing current knowledge gaps. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manoli, Gabriele; Katul, Gabriel G.; Marani, Marco

2016-12-01

While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold "rebound" surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ˜6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved.

Improving the sustainability of global meat and milk production.

PubMed

Salter, Andrew M

2017-02-01

Global demand for meat and dairy products has increased dramatically in recent decades and, through a combination of global population growth, increased lifespan and improved economic prosperity in the developing world will inevitably continue to increase. The predicted increases in livestock production will put a potentially unsustainable burden on global resources, including land for production of crops required for animal feed and fresh water. Furthermore, animal production itself is associated with greenhouse gas production, which may speed up global warming and thereby impact on our ability to produce food. There is, therefore, an urgent need to find methods to improve the sustainability of livestock production. This review will consider various options for improving the sustainability of livestock production with particular emphasis on finding ways to replace conventional crops as sources of animal feeds. Alternatives, such as currently underutilised crops (grown on a marginal land) and insects, reared on substrates not suitable for direct consumption by farm animals, represent possible solutions. Coupled with a moderation of excessive meat consumption in wealthier countries, such strategies may secure the long-term sustainability of meat and milk production and mitigate against the adverse health effects of excessive intake.

Earth applications of closed ecological systems: Relevance to the development of sustainability in our global biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, M.; Allen, J.; Ailing, A.; Dempster, W. F.; Silverstone, S.

The parallels between the challenges facing bioregenerative life support in artificial closed ecological systems and those in our global biosphere are striking. At the scale of the current global technosphere and expanding human population, it is increasingly obvious that the biosphere can no longer safely buffer and absorb technogenic and anthropogenic pollutants. The loss of biodiversity, reliance on non-renewable natural resources, and conversion of once wild ecosystems for human use with attendant desertification/soil erosion, has led to a shift of consciousness and the widespread call for sustainability of human activities. For researchers working on bioregenerative life support in closed systems, the small volumes and faster cycling times than in the Earth's biosphere make it starkly clear that systems must be designed to ensure renewal of water and atmosphere, nutrient recycling, production of healthy food, and safe environmental methods of maintaining technical systems. The development of technical systems that can be fully integrated and supportive of living systems is a harbinger of new perspectives as well as technologies in the global environment. In addition, closed system bioregenerative life support offers opportunities for public education and consciousness changing of how to live with our global biosphere.

Gender norms as health harms: reclaiming a life course perspective on sexual and reproductive health and rights.

PubMed

Crockett, Cailin; Cooper, Bergen

2016-11-01

Despite their demographic significance and the lifetime impact of gender disparities on their health and rights, women considered older than reproductive age are excluded from most investments in global public health. While development policies linking human rights with access to sexual and reproductive healthcare have yielded progress towards improving the status of women and girls, older women have not benefited from these initiatives. Yet as women grow older, they experience a range of health conditions rooted in their reproductive biology - from ageing with fistula, to cervical and breast cancers. Current approaches to global women's health ignore these serious conditions, harming older women through the perpetuation of gender norms that construe women's health through a narrow reproductive lens. Meanwhile, older women are generally absent from global ageing discourse, which lacks a gender perspective, creating a dual invisibility as the field of global women's health presumes ageing women are accounted for. Reclaiming the sexual rights framework suggested by the International Conference on Population and Development and the Beijing Platform for Action, we call for the revision of global health policies to incorporate a life course approach to women's health as a matter of human rights. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Impact of global warming at the range margins: phenotypic plasticity and behavioral thermoregulation will buffer an endemic amphibian.

PubMed

Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel; Gonzalez-Mendez, Avia; Estay, Sergio A; Gaitán-Espitia, Juan D; Barria-Oyarzo, Ismael; Bartheld, José L; Bacigalupe, Leonardo D

2014-12-01

When dispersal is not an option to evade warming temperatures, compensation through behavior, plasticity, or evolutionary adaptation is essential to prevent extinction. In this work, we evaluated whether there is physiological plasticity in the thermal performance curve (TPC) of maximum jumping speed in individuals acclimated to current and projected temperatures and whether there is an opportunity for behavioral thermoregulation in the desert landscape where inhabits the northernmost population of the endemic frog Pleurodema thaul. Our results indicate that individuals acclimated to 20°C and 25°C increased the breath of their TPCs by shifting their upper limits with respect to when they were acclimated at 10°C. In addition, even when dispersal is not possible for this population, the landscape is heterogeneous enough to offer opportunities for behavioral thermoregulation. In particular, under current climatic conditions, behavioral thermoregulation is not compulsory as available operative temperatures are encompassed within the population TPC limits. However, for severe projected temperatures under climate change, behavioral thermoregulation will be required in the sunny patches. In overall, our results suggest that this population of Pleurodema thaul will be able to endure the worst projected scenario of climate warming as it has not only the physiological capacities but also the environmental opportunities to regulate its body temperature behaviorally.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex genetic diversity: mining the fourth international spoligotyping database (SpolDB4) for classification, population genetics and epidemiology

PubMed Central

Brudey, Karine; Driscoll, Jeffrey R; Rigouts, Leen; Prodinger, Wolfgang M; Gori, Andrea; Al-Hajoj, Sahal A; Allix, Caroline; Aristimuño, Liselotte; Arora, Jyoti; Baumanis, Viesturs; Binder, Lothar; Cafrune, Patricia; Cataldi, Angel; Cheong, Soonfatt; Diel, Roland; Ellermeier, Christopher; Evans, Jason T; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Ferdinand, Séverine; de Viedma, Dario Garcia; Garzelli, Carlo; Gazzola, Lidia; Gomes, Harrison M; Guttierez, M Cristina; Hawkey, Peter M; van Helden, Paul D; Kadival, Gurujaj V; Kreiswirth, Barry N; Kremer, Kristin; Kubin, Milan; Kulkarni, Savita P; Liens, Benjamin; Lillebaek, Troels; Ly, Ho Minh; Martin, Carlos; Martin, Christian; Mokrousov, Igor; Narvskaïa, Olga; Ngeow, Yun Fong; Naumann, Ludmilla; Niemann, Stefan; Parwati, Ida; Rahim, Zeaur; Rasolofo-Razanamparany, Voahangy; Rasolonavalona, Tiana; Rossetti, M Lucia; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Sajduda, Anna; Samper, Sofia; Shemyakin, Igor G; Singh, Urvashi B; Somoskovi, Akos; Skuce, Robin A; van Soolingen, Dick; Streicher, Elisabeth M; Suffys, Philip N; Tortoli, Enrico; Tracevska, Tatjana; Vincent, Véronique; Victor, Tommie C; Warren, Robin M; Yap, Sook Fan; Zaman, Khadiza; Portaels, Françoise; Rastogi, Nalin; Sola, Christophe

2006-01-01

Background The Direct Repeat locus of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) is a member of the CRISPR (Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) sequences family. Spoligotyping is the widely used PCR-based reverse-hybridization blotting technique that assays the genetic diversity of this locus and is useful both for clinical laboratory, molecular epidemiology, evolutionary and population genetics. It is easy, robust, cheap, and produces highly diverse portable numerical results, as the result of the combination of (1) Unique Events Polymorphism (UEP) (2) Insertion-Sequence-mediated genetic recombination. Genetic convergence, although rare, was also previously demonstrated. Three previous international spoligotype databases had partly revealed the global and local geographical structures of MTC bacilli populations, however, there was a need for the release of a new, more representative and extended, international spoligotyping database. Results The fourth international spoligotyping database, SpolDB4, describes 1939 shared-types (STs) representative of a total of 39,295 strains from 122 countries, which are tentatively classified into 62 clades/lineages using a mixed expert-based and bioinformatical approach. The SpolDB4 update adds 26 new potentially phylogeographically-specific MTC genotype families. It provides a clearer picture of the current MTC genomes diversity as well as on the relationships between the genetic attributes investigated (spoligotypes) and the infra-species classification and evolutionary history of the species. Indeed, an independent Naïve-Bayes mixture-model analysis has validated main of the previous supervised SpolDB3 classification results, confirming the usefulness of both supervised and unsupervised models as an approach to understand MTC population structure. Updated results on the epidemiological status of spoligotypes, as well as genetic prevalence maps on six main lineages are also shown. Our results suggests the existence of fine geographical genetic clines within MTC populations, that could mirror the passed and present Homo sapiens sapiens demographical and mycobacterial co-evolutionary history whose structure could be further reconstructed and modelled, thereby providing a large-scale conceptual framework of the global TB Epidemiologic Network. Conclusion Our results broaden the knowledge of the global phylogeography of the MTC complex. SpolDB4 should be a very useful tool to better define the identity of a given MTC clinical isolate, and to better analyze the links between its current spreading and previous evolutionary history. The building and mining of extended MTC polymorphic genetic databases is in progress. PMID:16519816

A genomic portrait of the emergence, evolution, and global spread of a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pandemic

PubMed Central

Holden, Matthew T.G.; Hsu, Li-Yang; Kurt, Kevin; Weinert, Lucy A.; Mather, Alison E.; Harris, Simon R.; Strommenger, Birgit; Layer, Franziska; Witte, Wolfgang; de Lencastre, Herminia; Skov, Robert; Westh, Henrik; Žemličková, Helena; Coombs, Geoffrey; Kearns, Angela M.; Hill, Robert L.R.; Edgeworth, Jonathan; Gould, Ian; Gant, Vanya; Cooke, Jonathan; Edwards, Giles F.; McAdam, Paul R.; Templeton, Kate E.; McCann, Angela; Zhou, Zhemin; Castillo-Ramírez, Santiago; Feil, Edward J.; Hudson, Lyndsey O.; Enright, Mark C.; Balloux, Francois; Aanensen, David M.; Spratt, Brian G.; Fitzgerald, J. Ross; Parkhill, Julian; Achtman, Mark; Bentley, Stephen D.; Nübel, Ulrich

2013-01-01

The widespread use of antibiotics in association with high-density clinical care has driven the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria that are adapted to thrive in hospitalized patients. Of particular concern are globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones that cause outbreaks and epidemics associated with health care. The most rapidly spreading and tenacious health-care-associated clone in Europe currently is EMRSA-15, which was first detected in the UK in the early 1990s and subsequently spread throughout Europe and beyond. Using phylogenomic methods to analyze the genome sequences for 193 S. aureus isolates, we were able to show that the current pandemic population of EMRSA-15 descends from a health-care-associated MRSA epidemic that spread throughout England in the 1980s, which had itself previously emerged from a primarily community-associated methicillin-sensitive population. The emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in this EMRSA-15 subclone in the English Midlands during the mid-1980s appears to have played a key role in triggering pandemic spread, and occurred shortly after the first clinical trials of this drug. Genome-based coalescence analysis estimated that the population of this subclone over the last 20 yr has grown four times faster than its progenitor. Using comparative genomic analysis we identified the molecular genetic basis of 99.8% of the antimicrobial resistance phenotypes of the isolates, highlighting the potential of pathogen genome sequencing as a diagnostic tool. We document the genetic changes associated with adaptation to the hospital environment and with increasing drug resistance over time, and how MRSA evolution likely has been influenced by country-specific drug use regimens. PMID:23299977

Long-Term Field Data and Climate-Habitat Models Show That Orangutan Persistence Depends on Effective Forest Management and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

PubMed Central

Gregory, Stephen D.; Brook, Barry W.; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

Background Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. Conclusions/Significance We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests. PMID:22970145

Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation.

PubMed

Gregory, Stephen D; Brook, Barry W; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N; Fordham, Damien A

2012-01-01

Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world's highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000-10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government's proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.

Has the world really survived the population bomb? (Commentary on "how the world survived the population bomb: lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history").

PubMed

Becker, Stan

2013-12-01

In his PAA presidential address and corresponding article in Demography, David Lam (Demography 48:1231-1262, 2011) documented the extraordinary progress of humankind-vis-à-vis poverty alleviation, increased schooling, and reductions in mortality and fertility-since 1960 and noted that he expects further improvements by 2050. However, although Lam briefly covered the problems of global warming and pollution, he did not address several other major environmental problems that are closely related to the rapid human population growth in recent decades and to the progress he described. This commentary highlights some of these problems to provide a more balanced perspective on the situation of the world. Specifically, humans currently are using resources at an unsustainable level. Groundwater depletion and overuse of river water are major problems on multiple continents. Fossil fuel resources and several minerals are being depleted. Other major problems include deforestation, with the annual forest clearing globally estimated to be an area the size of New York State; and species extinction, with rates estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times higher than background rates. Principles of ecological economics are presented that allow an integration of ecology and economic development and better potential for preservation of the world for future generations.

Experimental evidence of the synergistic effects of warming and invasive algae on a temperate reef-builder coral.

PubMed

Kersting, Diego K; Cebrian, Emma; Casado, Clara; Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Linares, Cristina

2015-12-22

In the current global climate change scenario, stressors overlap in space and time, and knowledge on the effects of their interaction is highly needed to understand and predict the response and resilience of organisms. Corals, among many other benthic organisms, are affected by an increasing number of global change-related stressors including warming and invasive species. In this study, the cumulative effects between warming and invasive algae were experimentally assessed on the temperate reef-builder coral Cladocora caespitosa. We first investigated the potential local adaptation to thermal stress in two distant populations subjected to contrasting thermal and necrosis histories. No significant differences were found between populations. Colonies from both populations suffered no necrosis after long-term exposure to temperatures up to 29 °C. Second, we tested the effects of the interaction of both warming and the presence of invasive algae. The combined exposure triggered critical synergistic effects on photosynthetic efficiency and tissue necrosis. At the end of the experiment, over 90% of the colonies subjected to warming and invasive algae showed signs of necrosis. The results are of particular concern when considering the predicted increase of extreme climatic events and the spread of invasive species in the Mediterranean and other seas in the future.

Parasite epidemiology in a changing world: can molecular phylogeography help us tell the wood from the trees?

PubMed

Morgan, E R; Clare, E L; Jefferies, R; Stevens, J R

2012-12-01

SUMMARY Molecular phylogeography has revolutionised our ability to infer past biogeographic events from cross-sectional data on current parasite populations. In ecological parasitology, this approach has been used to address fundamental questions concerning host-parasite co-evolution and geographic patterns of spread, and has raised many technical issues and problems of interpretation. For applied parasitologists, the added complexity inherent in adding population genetic structure to perceived parasite distributions can sometimes seem to cloud rather than clarify approaches to control. In this paper, we use case studies firstly to illustrate the potential extent of cryptic diversity in parasite and parasitoid populations, secondly to consider how anthropogenic influences including movement of domestic animals affect the geographic distribution and host associations of parasite genotypes, and thirdly to explore the applied relevance of these processes to parasites of socio-economic importance. The contribution of phylogeographic approaches to deeper understanding of parasite biology in these cases is assessed. Thus, molecular data on the emerging parasites Angiostrongylus vasorum in dogs and wild canids, and the myiasis-causing flies Lucilia spp. in sheep and Cochliomyia hominovorax in humans, lead to clear implications for control efforts to limit global spread. Broader applications of molecular phylogeography to understanding parasite distributions in an era of rapid global change are also discussed.

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans and the risk of a second amphibian pandemic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yap, Tiffany A.; Nguyen, Natalie T.; Serr, Megan; Shepak, Alex; Vredenburg, Vance

2017-01-01

Amphibians are experiencing devastating population declines globally. A major driver is chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Bdwas described in 1999 and has been linked with declines since the 1970s, while Bsal is a more recently discovered pathogen that was described in 2013. It is hypothesized that Bsaloriginated in Asia and spread via international trade to Europe, where it has been linked to salamander die-offs. Trade in live amphibians thus represents a significant threat to global biodiversity in amphibians. We review the current state of knowledge regarding Bsal and describe the risk of Bsal spread. We discuss regional responses to Bsal and barriers that impede a rapid, coordinated global effort. The discovery of a second deadly emerging chytrid fungal pathogen in amphibians poses an opportunity for scientists, conservationists, and governments to improve global biosecurity and further protect humans and wildlife from a growing number of emerging infectious diseases.

Harvesting the biosphere: the human impact.

PubMed

Smil, Vaclav

2011-01-01

The human species has evolved to dominate the biosphere: global anthropomass is now an order of magnitude greater than the mass of all wild terrestrial mammals. As a result, our dependence on harvesting the products of photosynthesis for food, animal feed, raw materials, and energy has grown to make substantial global impacts. During the past two millennia these harvests, and changes of land use due to deforestation and conversions of grasslands and wetlands, have reduced the stock of global terrestrial plant mass by as much as 45 percent, with the twentieth-century reduction amounting to more than 15 percent. Current annual harvests of phytomass have been a significant share of the global net primary productivity (NPP, the total amount of new plant tissues created by photosynthesis). Some studies put the human appropriation of NPP (the ratio of these two variables) as high as 40 percent but the measure itself is problematic. Future population growth and improved quality of life will result in additional claims on the biosphere, but options to accommodate these demands exist without severely compromising the irreplaceable biospheric services.

Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

PubMed

Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Global Hidden Hunger Indices and Maps: An Advocacy Tool for Action

PubMed Central

Muthayya, Sumithra; Rah, Jee Hyun; Sugimoto, Jonathan D.; Roos, Franz F.; Kraemer, Klaus; Black, Robert E.

2013-01-01

The unified global efforts to mitigate the high burden of vitamin and mineral deficiency, known as hidden hunger, in populations around the world are crucial to the achievement of most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We developed indices and maps of global hidden hunger to help prioritize program assistance, and to serve as an evidence-based global advocacy tool. Two types of hidden hunger indices and maps were created based on i) national prevalence data on stunting, anemia due to iron deficiency, and low serum retinol levels among preschool-aged children in 149 countries; and ii) estimates of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributed to micronutrient deficiencies in 136 countries. A number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as India and Afghanistan, had an alarmingly high level of hidden hunger, with stunting, iron deficiency anemia, and vitamin A deficiency all being highly prevalent. The total DALY rates per 100,000 population, attributed to micronutrient deficiencies, were generally the highest in sub-Saharan African countries. In 36 countries, home to 90% of the world’s stunted children, deficiencies of micronutrients were responsible for 1.5-12% of the total DALYs. The pattern and magnitude of iodine deficiency did not conform to that of other micronutrients. The greatest proportions of children with iodine deficiency were in the Eastern Mediterranean (46.6%), European (44.2%), and African (40.4%) regions. The current indices and maps provide crucial data to optimize the prioritization of program assistance addressing global multiple micronutrient deficiencies. Moreover, the indices and maps serve as a useful advocacy tool in the call for increased commitments to scale up effective nutrition interventions. PMID:23776712

Socioeconomic contexts of primate conservation: population, poverty, global economic demands, and sustainable land use.

PubMed

Estrada, Alejandro

2013-01-01

Recent assessments by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) indicate the existence of about 612 recognized primate species and subspecies (IUCN RedList, 2012), but close to 50% of these taxa are at risk of extinction as a result of human action. In this article, I call attention to underlying regional and global socioeconomic contexts of primate conservation. Using information from FAO and UN databases and other sources, I examine, for the Neotropics, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, trends in forest loss and human demographics and social condition, discuss the impact of global market pressures upon primate habitats, and examine land-use patterns that may favor primate conservation. Between 1990 and 2010, an estimated 149 million ha of forest were lost in the three regions and additional losses are expected in the future. Global human population will increase from 7 billion in 2012 to 9 billion in 2050. Currently, 2 billion people live in the three primate range regions under high levels of poverty. Large-scale deforestation is related to global market demands, especially from developed and developing nations, for food (e.g., cattle), domestic animal feed (e.g., soybeans), biofuel-based crops (e.g., oil palm), and industrial round wood. The growth of protected areas in the three regions has been steady for several decades, but it is not enough to ensure long-term conservation of many primate taxa. Other conservations tools involving sustainable land use and biodiversity conservation corridors are required at the landscape level. The above assessment can easily be applied at the local level by primatologists, giving more precision to conservation initiatives. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Continent-wide survey reveals massive decline in African savannah elephants

PubMed Central

Schlossberg, Scott; Griffin, Curtice R.; Bouché, Philippe J.C.; Djene, Sintayehu W.; Elkan, Paul W.; Ferreira, Sam; Grossman, Falk; Kohi, Edward Mtarima; Landen, Kelly; Omondi, Patrick; Peltier, Alexis; Selier, S.A. Jeanetta; Sutcliffe, Robert

2016-01-01

African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are imperiled by poaching and habitat loss. Despite global attention to the plight of elephants, their population sizes and trends are uncertain or unknown over much of Africa. To conserve this iconic species, conservationists need timely, accurate data on elephant populations. Here, we report the results of the Great Elephant Census (GEC), the first continent-wide, standardized survey of African savannah elephants. We also provide the first quantitative model of elephant population trends across Africa. We estimated a population of 352,271 savannah elephants on study sites in 18 countries, representing approximately 93% of all savannah elephants in those countries. Elephant populations in survey areas with historical data decreased by an estimated 144,000 from 2007 to 2014, and populations are currently shrinking by 8% per year continent-wide, primarily due to poaching. Though 84% of elephants occurred in protected areas, many protected areas had carcass ratios that indicated high levels of elephant mortality. Results of the GEC show the necessity of action to end the African elephants’ downward trajectory by preventing poaching and protecting habitat. PMID:27635327

Continent-wide survey reveals massive decline in African savannah elephants.

PubMed

Chase, Michael J; Schlossberg, Scott; Griffin, Curtice R; Bouché, Philippe J C; Djene, Sintayehu W; Elkan, Paul W; Ferreira, Sam; Grossman, Falk; Kohi, Edward Mtarima; Landen, Kelly; Omondi, Patrick; Peltier, Alexis; Selier, S A Jeanetta; Sutcliffe, Robert

2016-01-01

African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are imperiled by poaching and habitat loss. Despite global attention to the plight of elephants, their population sizes and trends are uncertain or unknown over much of Africa. To conserve this iconic species, conservationists need timely, accurate data on elephant populations. Here, we report the results of the Great Elephant Census (GEC), the first continent-wide, standardized survey of African savannah elephants. We also provide the first quantitative model of elephant population trends across Africa. We estimated a population of 352,271 savannah elephants on study sites in 18 countries, representing approximately 93% of all savannah elephants in those countries. Elephant populations in survey areas with historical data decreased by an estimated 144,000 from 2007 to 2014, and populations are currently shrinking by 8% per year continent-wide, primarily due to poaching. Though 84% of elephants occurred in protected areas, many protected areas had carcass ratios that indicated high levels of elephant mortality. Results of the GEC show the necessity of action to end the African elephants' downward trajectory by preventing poaching and protecting habitat.

Approaches to Vaccination Among Populations in Areas of Conflict

PubMed Central

Nnadi, Chimeremma; Etsano, Andrew; Uba, Belinda; Ohuabunwo, Chima; Melton, Musa; Nganda, Gatei wa; Esapa, Lisa; Bolu, Omotayo; Mahoney, Frank; Vertefeuille, John; Wiesen, Eric; Durry, Elias

2017-01-01

Vaccination is an important and cost-effective disease prevention and control strategy. Despite progress in vaccine development and immunization delivery systems worldwide, populations in areas of conflict (hereafter, “conflict settings”) often have limited or no access to lifesaving vaccines, leaving them at increased risk for morbidity and mortality related to vaccine-preventable disease. Without developing and refining approaches to reach and vaccinate children and other vulnerable populations in conflict settings, outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease in these settings may persist and spread across subnational and international borders. Understanding and refining current approaches to vaccinating populations in conflict and humanitarian emergency settings may save lives. Despite major setbacks, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has made substantial progress in vaccinating millions of children worldwide, including those living in communities affected by conflicts and other humanitarian emergencies. In this article, we examine key strategic and operational tactics that have led to increased polio vaccination coverage among populations living in diverse conflict settings, including Nigeria, Somalia, and Pakistan, and how these could be applied to reach and vaccinate populations in other settings across the world. PMID:28838202

Genomic differentiation and demographic histories of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations.

PubMed

Barth, J M I; Damerau, M; Matschiner, M; Jentoft, S; Hanel, R

2017-04-13

Recent developments in the field of genomics have provided new and powerful insights into population structure and dynamics that are essential for the conservation of biological diversity. As a commercially highly valuable species, the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is intensely exploited throughout its distribution in tropical oceans around the world, and is currently classified as near threatened. However, conservation efforts for this species have so far been hampered by limited knowledge of its population structure, due to incongruent results of previous investigations. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing in concert with a draft genome assembly to decipher the global population structure of the yellowfin tuna, and to investigate its demographic history. We detect significant differentiation of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna populations as well as the possibility of a third diverged yellowfin tuna group in the Arabian Sea. We further observe evidence for past population expansion as well as asymmetric gene flow from the Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Moving beyond behaviour: advancing HIV risk prevention epistemologies and interventions (A report on the state of the literature).

PubMed

Phillips, Alton F; Pirkle, Catherine M

2011-01-01

This paper is based on an extensive literature review of academic, policy and 'grey' literatures on the intersections of culture and the global HIV/AIDS pandemic commissioned by UNESCO. It highlights that the review exposed a dominant conceptual perspective that poorly captures structures of vulnerability, particularly structures that expose entire populations to risk in relatively uniform ways. Stemming from this, the review revealed a series of specific topical areas in need of further research including masculinities, transactional sex, infrastructural deficits in health and education, fragile states and global governance. For each of these topical areas the authors demonstrate the relationship to the conceptual limitation, summarise relevant research in this area, and provide evidence of applicability to public health interventions. In pursuit of more effective interventions, this paper draws attention to some of the conceptual limitations of current approaches to understanding the pandemic, and calls for interventions that move beyond individual behaviours to address structures that shape individual behaviour and make entire populations more vulnerable to HIV.

Pregnancy Outcomes from the Branded Glatiramer Acetate Pregnancy Database.

PubMed

Sandberg-Wollheim, Magnhild; Neudorfer, Orit; Grinspan, Augusto; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca; Haas, Judith; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Riley, Claire; Ross, Amy Perrin; Baruch, Peleg; Drillman, Talya; Coyle, Patricia K

2018-01-01

Appropriate counseling and treatment for women with multiple sclerosis (MS) who may become pregnant requires an understanding of the effects of exposure to disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) during pregnancy. Current reports and studies are limited in their usefulness, mostly by small sample size. Branded glatiramer acetate (GA) is a DMT approved for the treatment of relapsing forms of MS. For more than 2 decades, it has been shown to be efficacious and to have a favorable safety profile. The Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd global pharmacovigilance database comprises data from more than 7000 pregnancies, during which women with MS were exposed to treatment with branded GA. We analyzed data from Teva's global pharmacovigilance database. Pregnancy outcomes for patients treated with branded GA were compared with reference rates of abnormal pregnancy outcomes reported in two large registries representing the general population. Pregnancies exposed to branded GA were not at higher risk for congenital anomalies than what is expected in the general population. These data provide evidence that branded GA exposure during pregnancy seems safe, without teratogenic effect.

Pregnancy Outcomes from the Branded Glatiramer Acetate Pregnancy Database

PubMed Central

Sandberg-Wollheim, Magnhild; Grinspan, Augusto; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca; Haas, Judith; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Riley, Claire; Ross, Amy Perrin; Baruch, Peleg; Drillman, Talya; Coyle, Patricia K.

2018-01-01

Abstract Background: Appropriate counseling and treatment for women with multiple sclerosis (MS) who may become pregnant requires an understanding of the effects of exposure to disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) during pregnancy. Current reports and studies are limited in their usefulness, mostly by small sample size. Branded glatiramer acetate (GA) is a DMT approved for the treatment of relapsing forms of MS. For more than 2 decades, it has been shown to be efficacious and to have a favorable safety profile. The Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd global pharmacovigilance database comprises data from more than 7000 pregnancies, during which women with MS were exposed to treatment with branded GA. Methods: We analyzed data from Teva's global pharmacovigilance database. Pregnancy outcomes for patients treated with branded GA were compared with reference rates of abnormal pregnancy outcomes reported in two large registries representing the general population. Results: Pregnancies exposed to branded GA were not at higher risk for congenital anomalies than what is expected in the general population. Conclusions: These data provide evidence that branded GA exposure during pregnancy seems safe, without teratogenic effect. PMID:29507538

Geographical distribution of Musa gracilis Holttum in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norfazlina, B.; Wickneswari, R.; Choong, C. Y.

2016-11-01

Musa gracilis (Musaceae) is placed under section Callimusa and was considered endemic to Peninsular Malaysia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current occurrence of Musa gracilis in Peninsular Malaysia. The coordinates of each population was recorded using the Global Positioning System (GPS) and mapped to show the geographical distribution of Musa gracilis. This study revealed that Musa gracilis exhibits specific pattern of distribution, which exists only in a lowland areas on the eastern and southern part of Peninsular Malaysia.

“Globalized public health.” A transdisciplinary comprehensive framework for analyzing contemporary globalization’s influences on the field of public health

PubMed Central

Lapaige, Véronique

2009-01-01

The current phase of globalization represents a “double-edged sword” challenge facing public health practitioners and health policy makers. The first “edge” throws light on two constructs in the field of public health: global health (formerly international health) and globalized public health. The second “edge” is that of global governance, and raises the question, “how can we construct public health regulations that adequately respond to both global and local complexities related to the two constructs mentioned earlier (global health and globalized public health)?” The two constructs call for the development of norms that will assure sustained population-wide health improvement and these two constructs have their own conceptual tools and theoretical models that permit a better understanding of them. In this paper, we introduce the “globalized public health” construct and we present an interactive comprehensive framework for critically analyzing contemporary globalization’s influences on the field of public health. “Globalized public health”, simultaneously a theoretical model and a conceptual framework, concerns the transformation of the field of public health in the sociohistorical context of globalization. The model is the fruit of an original theoretical research study conducted from 2005 to 2008 (“contextualized research,” Gibbons’ Mode II of knowledge production), founded on a QUAL-quant sequential mixed-method design. This research also reflects our political and ideological position, fuelled with aspirations of social democracy and cosmopolitical values. It is profoundly anchored in the pragmatic approach to globalization, looking to “reconcile” the market and equity. The model offers several features to users: (1) it is transdisciplinary; (2) it is interactive (CD-ROM); (3) it is nonlinear (nonlinear interrelations between the contextual globalization and the field of public health); (4) it is synchronic/diachronic (a double-crossed perspective permits analysis of global social change, the emergence of global agency and the transmutation of the field of public health, in the full complexity of their nonlinear interaction); (5) it offers five characteristics as an auto-eco-organized system of social interactions, or dynamic, nonlinear sociohistorical system. The model features a visual interface (five interrelated figures), a structure of 30 “integrator concepts” that integrates 114 other element-parts via 1,300 hypertext links. The model is both a knowledge translation tool and an interactive heuristic guide designed for practitioners and researchers in public health/community health/population health, as well as for decision-makers at all levels. PMID:22312210

The Role of Ionospheric Outflow Preconditioning in Determining Storm Geoeffectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Liemohn, M. W.; Ridley, A. J.

2012-12-01

It is now well accepted that ionospheric outflow plays an important role in the development of the plasma sheet and ring current during geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, even during quiet times, ionospheric plasma populates the magnetospheric lobes, producing a reservoir of hydrogen and oxygen ions. When the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turns southward, this reservoir is connected to the plasma sheet and ring current through magnetospheric convection. Hence, the conditions of the ionosphere and magnetospheric lobes leading up to magnetospheric storm onset have important implications for storm development. Despite this, there has been little research on this preconditioning; most global simulations begin just before storm onset, neglecting preconditioning altogether. This work explores the role of preconditioning in determining the geoeffectiveness of storms using a coupled global model system. A model of ionospheric outflow (the Polar Wind Outflow Model, PWOM) is two-way coupled to a global magnetohydrodynamic model (the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US), which in turn drives a ring current model (the Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model, RAM). This unique setup is used to simulate an idealized storm. The model is started at many different times, from 1 hour before storm onset to 12 hours before. The effects of storm preconditioning are examined by investigating the total ionospheric plasma content in the lobes just before onset, the total ionospheric contribution in the ring current just after onset, and the effects on Dst, magnetic elevation angle at geosynchronous, and total ring current energy density. This experiment is repeated for different solar activity levels as set by F10.7 flux. Finally, a synthetic double-dip storm is constructed to see how two closely spaced storms affect each other by changing the preconditioning environment. It is found that preconditioning of the magnetospheric lobes via ionospheric outflow greatly influences the geoeffectiveness of magnetospheric storms.

Current perspectives in contaminant hydrology and water resources sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Human society depends on liquid freshwater resources to meet drinking, sanitation and hygiene, agriculture, and industry needs. Improved resource monitoring and better understanding of the anthropogenic threats to freshwater environments are critical to efficient management of freshwater resources and ultimately to the survival and quality of life of the global human population. This book helps address the need for improved freshwater resource monitoring and threat assessment by presenting current reviews and case studies focused on the fate and transport of contaminants in the environment and on the sustainability of groundwater and surface-water resources around the world. It is intended for students and professionals working in hydrology and water resources management.

Diet, nutrients and metabolism: cogs in the wheel driving Alzheimer's disease pathology?

PubMed

Creegan, Rhona; Hunt, Wendy; McManus, Alexandra; Rainey-Smith, Stephanie R

2015-05-28

Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, is a chronic, progressive neurodegenerative disease that manifests clinically as a slow global decline in cognitive function, including deterioration of memory, reasoning, abstraction, language and emotional stability, culminating in a patient with end-stage disease, totally dependent on custodial care. With a global ageing population, it is predicted that there will be a marked increase in the number of people diagnosed with AD in the coming decades, making this a significant challenge to socio-economic policy and aged care. Global estimates put a direct cost for treating and caring for people with dementia at $US604 billion, an estimate that is expected to increase markedly. According to recent global statistics, there are 35.6 million dementia sufferers, the number of which is predicted to double every 20 years, unless strategies are implemented to reduce this burden. Currently, there is no cure for AD; while current therapies may temporarily ameliorate symptoms, death usually occurs approximately 8 years after diagnosis. A greater understanding of AD pathophysiology is paramount, and attention is now being directed to the discovery of biomarkers that may not only facilitate pre-symptomatic diagnosis, but also provide an insight into aberrant biochemical pathways that may reveal potential therapeutic targets, including nutritional ones. AD pathogenesis develops over many years before clinical symptoms appear, providing the opportunity to develop therapy that could slow or stop disease progression well before any clinical manifestation develops.

Sustainable water future with global implications: everyone's responsibility.

PubMed

Kuylenstierna, J L; Bjorklund, G; Najlis, P

1997-01-01

The current use and management of freshwater is not sustainable in many countries and regions of the world. If current trends are maintained, about two-thirds of the world's population will face moderate to severe water stress by 2025 compared to one-third at present. This water stress will hamper economic and social development unless action is taken to deal with the emerging problems. The Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World, prepared by the UN and the Stockholm Environment Institute, calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration of freshwater resources. Although most problems related to water quantity and quality require national and regional solutions, only a global commitment can achieve the necessary agreement on principles, as well as financial means to attain sustainability. Due to the central and integrated role played by water in human activities, any measures taken need to incorporate a wide range of social, ecological and economic factors and needs. The Assessment thus addresses the many issues related to freshwater use, such as integrated land and water management at the watershed level, global food security, water supply and sanitation, ecosystem requirements, pollution, strengthening of major groups, and national water resource assessment capabilities and monitoring networks. Governments are urged to work towards a consensus regarding global principles and guidelines for integrated water management, and towards their implementation in local and regional water management situations. The alternative development options available to countries facing water stress, or the risk thereof, needs to be considered in all aspects of development planning.

Does the seed bank contribute to the build-up of a genetic extinction debt in the grassland perennial Campanula rotundifolia?

PubMed

Plue, Jan; Vandepitte, Katrien; Honnay, Olivier; Cousins, Sara A O

2017-09-01

Habitat fragmentation threatens global biodiversity. Many plant species persist in habitat fragments via persistent life cycle stages such as seed banks, generating a species extinction debt. Here, seed banks are hypothesized to cause a temporal delay in the expected loss of genetic variation, which can be referred to as a genetic extinction debt, as a possible mechanism behind species extinction debts. Fragmented grassland populations of Campanula rotundifolia were examined for evidence of a genetic extinction debt, investigating if the seed bank contributed to the extinction debt build-up. The genetic make-up of 15 above- and below-ground populations was analysed in relation to historical and current levels of habitat fragmentation, both separately and combined. Genetic diversity was highest in above-ground populations, though below-ground populations contained 8 % of unique alleles that were absent above-ground. Above-ground genetic diversity and composition were related to historical patch size and connectivity, but not current patch characteristics, suggesting the presence of a genetic extinction debt in the above-ground populations. No such relationships were found for the below-ground populations. Genetic diversity measures still showed a response to historical but not present landscape characteristics when combining genetic diversity of the above- and below-ground populations. The fragmented C. rotundifolia populations exhibited a genetic extinction debt. However, the role of the seed banks in the build-up of this extinction debt is probably small, since the limited, unique genetic diversity of the seed bank alone seems unable to counter the detrimental effects of habitat fragmentation on the population genetic structure of C. rotundifolia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Leadership training in science, technology, engineering and mathematics education in Bulgaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bairaktarova, Diana; Cox, Monica F.; Evangelou, Demetra

2011-12-01

This synthesis paper explores current leadership training in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education in Bulgaria. The analysis begins with discussion of global factors influencing the implementation of leadership training in STEM education in general and then presents information about the current status of leadership training in Bulgaria with emphases on the country's economics, politics and geographical location as specific factors influencing leadership education. A short background of Bulgaria is presented with regard to population, gross domestic product, educational system, engineering force and possible need for leaders in industry in Bulgaria and the European Union. The paper provides an overall view about the current status of leadership training in all Bulgarian universities offering STEM education and concentrates specifically on two major universities by examining their currently offered programmes. As part of the discussion, similar training elements in other European countries and the USA are presented.

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework

PubMed Central

Gushulak, BD; Weekers, J; MacPherson, DW

2010-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events. PMID:22460280

Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

PubMed

Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

2009-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events.

Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

2017-12-01

Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a scale-free behavior), and the traditional statistical learning approaches (whereby values of individual pixels are modeled as functions of locally-defined, hand-engineered features). This is a first-of-its-kind analysis of urban forms using data at a planetary scale.

Executive summary of the KDIGO Controversies Conference on Supportive Care in Chronic Kidney Disease: developing a roadmap to improving quality care.

PubMed

Davison, Sara N; Levin, Adeera; Moss, Alvin H; Jha, Vivekanand; Brown, Edwina A; Brennan, Frank; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Naicker, Saraladevi; Germain, Michael J; O'Donoghue, Donal J; Morton, Rachael L; Obrador, Gregorio T

2015-09-01

Patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) have a high burden of physical and psychosocial symptoms, poor outcomes, and high costs of care. Current paradigms of care for this highly vulnerable population are variable, prognostic and assessment tools are limited, and quality of care, particularly regarding conservative and palliative care, is suboptimal. The KDIGO Controversies Conference on Supportive Care in CKD reviewed the current state of knowledge in order to define a roadmap to guide clinical and research activities focused on improving the outcomes of people living with advanced CKD, including those on dialysis. An international group of multidisciplinary experts in CKD, palliative care, methodology, economics, and education identified the key issues related to palliative care in this population. The conference led to a working plan to address outstanding issues in this arena, and this executive summary serves as an output to guide future work, including the development of globally applicable guidelines.

Fish immune responses to parasitic copepod (namely sea lice) infection.

PubMed

Fast, Mark D

2014-04-01

Parasitic copepods, in particular sea lice, have considerable impacts upon global freshwater and marine fisheries, with major economic consequences recognized primarily in aquaculture. Sea lice have been a contentious issue with regards to interactions between farmed and wild populations of fish, in particular salmonids, and their potential for detrimental effects at a population level. The following discussion will pertain to aquatic parasitic copepod species for which we have significant information on the host-parasite interaction and host response to infection (Orders Cyclopoida, Poecilostomatoida and Siphonostomatoida). This review evaluates prior research in terms of contributions to understanding parasite stage specific responses by the host, and in many cases draws upon model organisms like Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Atlantic salmon to convey important concepts in fish responses to parasitic copepod infection. The article discusses TH1 and TH2-like host responses in light of parasite immunomodulation of the host, current methods of immunological stimulation and where the current and future work in this field is heading. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Northward dispersal of sea kraits (Laticauda semifasciata) beyond their typical range

PubMed Central

Park, Jaejin; Kim, Il-Hun; Fong, Jonathan J.; Koo, Kyo-Soung; Choi, Woo-Jin; Tsai, Tein-Shun

2017-01-01

Marine reptiles are declining globally, and recent climate change may be a contributing factor. The study of sea snakes collected beyond their typical distribution range provides valuable insight on how climate change affects marine reptile populations. Recently, we collected 12 Laticauda semifasciata (11 females, 1 male) from the waters around southern South Korea—an area located outside its typical distribution range (Japan, China including Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia). We investigated the genetic origin of Korean specimens by analyzing mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (Cytb) sequences. Six individuals shared haplotypes with a group found in Taiwan-southern Ryukyu Islands, while the remaining six individuals shared haplotypes with a group encompassing the entire Ryukyu Archipelago. These results suggest L. semifasciata moved into Korean waters from the Taiwan-Ryukyu region via the Taiwan Warm Current and/or the Kuroshio Current, with extended survival facilitated by ocean warming. We highlight several contributing factors that increase the chances that L. semifasciata establishes new northern populations beyond the original distribution range. PMID:28644894

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J

2015-09-17

World leaders remain committed to globally-coordinated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation following successful eradication of wild polioviruses, but the best timing and strategy for implementation depend on existing and emerging conditions. Using an existing integrated global poliovirus risk management model, we explore alternatives to the current timing plan of coordinated cessation of each OPV serotype (i.e., OPV1, OPV2, and OPV3 cessation for serotypes 1, 2, and 3, respectively). We assume the current timing plan involves OPV2 cessation in 2016 followed by OPV1 and OPV3 cessation in 2019 and we compare this to alternative timing options, including cessation of all three serotypes in 2018 or 2019, and cessation of both OPV2 and OPV3 in 2017 followed by OPV1 in 2019. If Supplemtal Immunization Activity frequency remains sufficiently high through cessation of the last OPV serotype, then all OPV cessation timing options prevent circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks after OPV cessation of any serotype. The various OPV cessation timing options result in relatively modest differences in expected vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases and expected total of approximately 10-13 billion polio vaccine doses used. However, the expected amounts of vaccine of different OPV formulations needed changes dramatically with each OPV cessation timing option. Overall health economic impacts remain limited for timing options that only change the OPV formulation but preserve the currently planned year for cessation of the last OPV serotype and the global introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) introduction. Earlier cessation of the last OPV serotype or later global IPV introduction yield approximately $1 billion in incremental net benefits due to saved vaccination costs, although the logistics of implementation of OPV cessation remain uncertain and challenging. All countries should maintain the highest possible levels of population immunity to transmission for each poliovirus serotype prior to the coordinated cessation of the OPV serotype to manage cVDPV risks. If OPV2 cessation gets delayed, then global health leaders should consider other OPV cessation timing options.

Chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in European beech and sessile oak populations at the southern limit of their distribution range.

PubMed

Dantec, Cécile F; Vitasse, Yann; Bonhomme, Marc; Louvet, Jean-Marc; Kremer, Antoine; Delzon, Sylvain

2014-11-01

With global warming, an advance in spring leaf phenology has been reported worldwide. However, it is difficult to forecast phenology for a given species, due to a lack of knowledge about chilling requirements. We quantified chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in two European tree species and investigated their relative contributions to phenological variations between and within populations. We used an extensive database containing information about the leaf phenology of 14 oak and 10 beech populations monitored over elevation gradients since 2005. In parallel, we studied the various bud dormancy phases, in controlled conditions, by regularly sampling low- and high-elevation populations during fall and winter. Oak was 2.3 times more sensitive to temperature for leaf unfolding over the elevation gradient and had a lower chilling requirement for dormancy release than beech. We found that chilling is currently insufficient for the full release of dormancy, for both species, at the lowest elevations in the area studied. Genetic variation in leaf unfolding timing between and within oak populations was probably due to differences in heat requirement rather than differences in chilling requirement. Our results demonstrate the importance of chilling for leaf unfolding in forest trees and indicate that the advance in leaf unfolding phenology with increasing temperature will probably be less pronounced than forecasted. This highlights the urgent need to determine experimentally the interactions between chilling and heat requirements in forest tree species, to improve our understanding and modeling of changes in phenological timing under global warming.

Have historical climate changes affected Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) populations in Antarctica?

PubMed

Peña M, Fabiola; Poulin, Elie; Dantas, Gisele P M; González-Acuña, Daniel; Petry, Maria Virginia; Vianna, Juliana A

2014-01-01

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has been suffering an increase in its atmospheric temperature during the last 50 years, mainly associated with global warming. This increment of temperature trend associated with changes in sea-ice dynamics has an impact on organisms, affecting their phenology, physiology and distribution range. For instance, rapid demographic changes in Pygoscelis penguins have been reported over the last 50 years in WAP, resulting in population expansion of sub-Antarctic Gentoo penguin (P. papua) and retreat of Antarctic Adelie penguin (P. adeliae). Current global warming has been mainly associated with human activities; however these climate trends are framed in a historical context of climate changes, particularly during the Pleistocene, characterized by an alternation between glacial and interglacial periods. During the last maximal glacial (LGM∼21,000 BP) the ice sheet cover reached its maximum extension on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), causing local extinction of Antarctic taxa, migration to lower latitudes and/or survival in glacial refugia. We studied the HRVI of mtDNA and the nuclear intron βfibint7 of 150 individuals of the WAP to understand the demographic history and population structure of P. papua. We found high genetic diversity, reduced population genetic structure and a signature of population expansion estimated around 13,000 BP, much before the first paleocolony fossil records (∼1,100 BP). Our results suggest that the species may have survived in peri-Antarctic refugia such as South Georgia and North Sandwich islands and recolonized the Antarctic Peninsula and South Shetland Islands after the ice sheet retreat.

Genetic connectivity among swarming sites in the wide ranging and recently declining little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus)

PubMed Central

Burns, Lynne E; Frasier, Timothy R; Broders, Hugh G

2014-01-01

Characterizing movement dynamics and spatial aspects of gene flow within a species permits inference on population structuring. As patterns of structuring are products of historical and current demographics and gene flow, assessment of structure through time can yield an understanding of evolutionary dynamics acting on populations that are necessary to inform management. Recent dramatic population declines in hibernating bats in eastern North America from white-nose syndrome have prompted the need for information on movement dynamics for multiple bat species. We characterized population genetic structure of the little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus, at swarming sites in southeastern Canada using 9 nuclear microsatellites and a 292-bp region of the mitochondrial genome. Analyses of FST, ΦST, and Bayesian clustering (STRUCTURE) found weak levels of genetic structure among swarming sites for the nuclear and mitochondrial genome (Global FST = 0.001, P < 0.05, Global ΦST = 0.045, P < 0.01, STRUCTURE K = 1) suggesting high contemporary gene flow. Hierarchical AMOVA also suggests little structuring at a regional (provincial) level. Metrics of nuclear genetic structure were not found to differ between males and females suggesting weak asymmetries in gene flow between the sexes. However, a greater degree of mitochondrial structuring does support male-biased dispersal long term. Demographic analyses were consistent with past population growth and suggest a population expansion occurred from approximately 1250 to 12,500 BP, following Pleistocene deglaciation in the region. Our study suggests high gene flow and thus a high degree of connectivity among bats that visit swarming sites whereby mainland areas of the region may be best considered as one large gene pool for management and conservation. PMID:25505539

Estimation of "needs" and "probable uptake" for HIV/AIDS preventive vaccines based on possible policies and likely acceptance (a WHO/UNAIDS/IAVI study).

PubMed

Esparza, José; Chang, Marie-Louise; Widdus, Roy; Madrid, Yvette; Walker, Neff; Ghys, Peter D

2003-05-16

Once an effective HIV vaccine is discovered, a major challenge will be to ensure its world wide access. A preventive vaccine with low or moderate efficacy (30-50%) could be a valuable prevention tool, especially if targeted to populations at higher risk of HIV infection. High efficacy vaccines (80-90%) could be used in larger segments of the population. Estimated "needs" for future HIV vaccines were based on anticipated policies regarding target populations. Estimated "needs" were adjusted for "accessibility" and "acceptability" in the target populations, to arrive at an estimate of "probable uptake", i.e. courses of vaccine likely to be delivered. With a high efficacy vaccine, global needs are in the order of 690 million full immunization courses, targeting 22 and 69%, respectively, of the 15-49 years old, world wide and in sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. With a low/moderate efficacy vaccine targeted to populations at higher risk of HIV infection, the global needs were estimated to be 260 million full immunization courses, targeting 8 and 41%, respectively, of the world and sub-Saharan African population aged 15-49 years. The current estimate of probable uptake for hypothetical HIV vaccines, using existing health services and delivery systems, was 38% of the estimated need for a high efficacy vaccine, and 19% for a low/moderate efficacy vaccine. Bridging the gap between the estimated needs and the probable uptake for HIV vaccines will represent a major public health challenge for the future. The potential advantages and disadvantages of targeted versus universal vaccination will have to be considered.

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

DOE PAGES

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

2016-07-29

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatiallymore » explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.« less

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatiallymore » explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.« less

Reducing water scarcity possible by 2050: Linking global assessments to policy dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Gleeson, T.; Esnault, L.

2015-12-01

Water scarcity is not a problem just for the developing world. In California, legislators are currently proposing a $7.5 billion emergency water plan to their voters; and U.S. federal officials last year warned residents of Arizona and Nevada that they could face cuts in Colorado River water deliveries in 2016. Irrigation techniques, industrial and residential habits combined with climate change lie at the root of the problem. But despite what appears to be an insurmountable problem, it is possible to turn the situation around and significantly reduce water scarcity in over next 35 years. We identify outline strategies in six key areas that they believe can be combined in different ways in different parts of the world in order to effectively reduce water stress. (Water stress occurs in an area where more than 40% of the available water from rivers is unavailable because it is already being used - a situation that currently affects about a third of the global population, and may affect as many as half the people in the world by the end of the century if the current pattern of water use continues). We separate six key strategy areas for reducing water stress into "hard path" measures, involving building more reservoirs and increasing desalination efforts of sea water, and "soft path" measures that focus on reducing water demand rather than increasing water supply thanks to community-scale efforts and decision-making, combining efficient technology and environmental protection. While there are some economic, cultural and social factors that may make certain of the "soft path" measures such as population control difficult, the "soft path" measures offer the more realistic path forward in terms of reducing water stress by 2050.

A vast range of opportunities for feeding the world in 2050: trade-off between diet, N contamination and international trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billen, Gilles; Lassaletta, Luis; Garnier, Josette

2015-02-01

Through a detailed analysis of the FAO database, we have constructed a generalized representation of the nitrogen transfers characterizing the current agro-food system (GRAFS) of 12 macro-regions of the world in terms of functional relationships between crop farming, livestock breeding and human nutrition. Based on this model, and maintaining the current cropland areas and the performance of cropping and livestock systems in each region, we have assessed the possibilities of meeting the protein requirements of the estimated world population in 2050, according to various combinations of three critical drivers namely human diet (total amount of protein consumed and share of animal protein in this total), regional livestock production and crop fertilization intensity, in each region. The results show that feeding the projected 2050 world population would generally imply higher levels of inter-regional trade and of environmental nitrogen contamination than the current levels, but that the scenarios with less recourse to inter-regional trade generally produce less N losses to the environment. If an equitable human diet (in terms of protein consumption) is to be established globally (the same in all regions of the world), the fraction of animal protein should not exceed 40% of a total ingestion of 4 kgN capita-1 yr-1, or 25% of a total consumption of 5 kgN capita-1 yr-1. Our results show that slightly improving the agronomical performance in the most deficient regions (namely Maghreb, the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and India) would make it possible not only to meet the global protein requirements with much less international trade (hence more food sovereignty), but also to reduce N environmental contamination the most efficiently.

Reducing water scarcity possible by 2050: Linking global assessments to policy dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watts, A.; Turetsky, M. R.; Benscoter, B.; Page, S. E.; Rein, G.; van der Werf, G.

2014-12-01

Water scarcity is not a problem just for the developing world. In California, legislators are currently proposing a $7.5 billion emergency water plan to their voters; and U.S. federal officials last year warned residents of Arizona and Nevada that they could face cuts in Colorado River water deliveries in 2016. Irrigation techniques, industrial and residential habits combined with climate change lie at the root of the problem. But despite what appears to be an insurmountable problem, it is possible to turn the situation around and significantly reduce water scarcity in over next 35 years. We identify outline strategies in six key areas that they believe can be combined in different ways in different parts of the world in order to effectively reduce water stress. (Water stress occurs in an area where more than 40% of the available water from rivers is unavailable because it is already being used - a situation that currently affects about a third of the global population, and may affect as many as half the people in the world by the end of the century if the current pattern of water use continues). We separate six key strategy areas for reducing water stress into "hard path" measures, involving building more reservoirs and increasing desalination efforts of sea water, and "soft path" measures that focus on reducing water demand rather than increasing water supply thanks to community-scale efforts and decision-making, combining efficient technology and environmental protection. While there are some economic, cultural and social factors that may make certain of the "soft path" measures such as population control difficult, the "soft path" measures offer the more realistic path forward in terms of reducing water stress by 2050.

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world.

PubMed

Pike, David A

2014-01-01

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.

THE EMERGENCE OF ARTHROPOD-BORNE VIRAL DISEASES: A GLOBAL PROSPECTIVE ON DENGUE, CHIKUNGUNYA AND ZIKA FEVERS

PubMed Central

Mayer, Sandra V.; Tesh, Robert B.; Vasilakis, Nikos

2016-01-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) present a substantial threat to human and animal health worldwide. Arboviruses can cause a variety of clinical presentations that range from mild to life threatening symptoms. Many arboviruses are present in nature through two distinct cycles, the urban and sylvatic cycle that are maintained in complex biological cycles. In this review we briefly discuss the factors driving the emergence of arboviruses, such as the anthropogenic aspects of unrestrained human population growth, economic expansion and globalization. Also the important aspects of viruses and vectors in the occurrence of arboviruses epidemics. The focus of this review will be on dengue, zika and chikungunya viruses, particularly because these viruses are currently causing a negative impact on public health and economic damage around the world. PMID:27876643

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Low Diversity Cryptococcus neoformans Variety grubii Multilocus Sequence Types from Thailand Are Consistent with an Ancestral African Origin

PubMed Central

Simwami, Sitali P.; Khayhan, Kantarawee; Henk, Daniel A.; Aanensen, David M.; Boekhout, Teun; Hagen, Ferry; Brouwer, Annemarie E.; Harrison, Thomas S.; Donnelly, Christl A.; Fisher, Matthew C.

2011-01-01

The global burden of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis is estimated at nearly one million cases per year, causing up to a third of all AIDS-related deaths. Molecular epidemiology constitutes the main methodology for understanding the factors underpinning the emergence of this understudied, yet increasingly important, group of pathogenic fungi. Cryptococcus species are notable in the degree that virulence differs amongst lineages, and highly-virulent emerging lineages are changing patterns of human disease both temporally and spatially. Cryptococcus neoformans variety grubii (Cng, serotype A) constitutes the most ubiquitous cause of cryptococcal meningitis worldwide, however patterns of molecular diversity are understudied across some regions experiencing significant burdens of disease. We compared 183 clinical and environmental isolates of Cng from one such region, Thailand, Southeast Asia, against a global MLST database of 77 Cng isolates. Population genetic analyses showed that Thailand isolates from 11 provinces were highly homogenous, consisting of the same genetic background (globally known as VNI) and exhibiting only ten nearly identical sequence types (STs), with three (STs 44, 45 and 46) dominating our sample. This population contains significantly less diversity when compared against the global population of Cng, specifically Africa. Genetic diversity in Cng was significantly subdivided at the continental level with nearly half (47%) of the global STs unique to a genetically diverse and recombining population in Botswana. These patterns of diversity, when combined with evidence from haplotypic networks and coalescent analyses of global populations, are highly suggestive of an expansion of the Cng VNI clade out of Africa, leading to a limited number of genotypes founding the Asian populations. Divergence time testing estimates the time to the most common ancestor between the African and Asian populations to be 6,920 years ago (95% HPD 122.96 - 27,177.76). Further high-density sampling of global Cng STs is now necessary to resolve the temporal sequence underlying the global emergence of this human pathogen. PMID:21573144

Low diversity Cryptococcus neoformans variety grubii multilocus sequence types from Thailand are consistent with an ancestral African origin.

PubMed

Simwami, Sitali P; Khayhan, Kantarawee; Henk, Daniel A; Aanensen, David M; Boekhout, Teun; Hagen, Ferry; Brouwer, Annemarie E; Harrison, Thomas S; Donnelly, Christl A; Fisher, Matthew C

2011-04-01

The global burden of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis is estimated at nearly one million cases per year, causing up to a third of all AIDS-related deaths. Molecular epidemiology constitutes the main methodology for understanding the factors underpinning the emergence of this understudied, yet increasingly important, group of pathogenic fungi. Cryptococcus species are notable in the degree that virulence differs amongst lineages, and highly-virulent emerging lineages are changing patterns of human disease both temporally and spatially. Cryptococcus neoformans variety grubii (Cng, serotype A) constitutes the most ubiquitous cause of cryptococcal meningitis worldwide, however patterns of molecular diversity are understudied across some regions experiencing significant burdens of disease. We compared 183 clinical and environmental isolates of Cng from one such region, Thailand, Southeast Asia, against a global MLST database of 77 Cng isolates. Population genetic analyses showed that Thailand isolates from 11 provinces were highly homogenous, consisting of the same genetic background (globally known as VNI) and exhibiting only ten nearly identical sequence types (STs), with three (STs 44, 45 and 46) dominating our sample. This population contains significantly less diversity when compared against the global population of Cng, specifically Africa. Genetic diversity in Cng was significantly subdivided at the continental level with nearly half (47%) of the global STs unique to a genetically diverse and recombining population in Botswana. These patterns of diversity, when combined with evidence from haplotypic networks and coalescent analyses of global populations, are highly suggestive of an expansion of the Cng VNI clade out of Africa, leading to a limited number of genotypes founding the Asian populations. Divergence time testing estimates the time to the most common ancestor between the African and Asian populations to be 6,920 years ago (95% HPD 122.96 - 27,177.76). Further high-density sampling of global Cng STs is now necessary to resolve the temporal sequence underlying the global emergence of this human pathogen.

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

DOE PAGES

Andres, Robert J.; Boden, Thomas A.; Higdon, David M.

2016-12-05

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughoutmore » this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2 σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.« less

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andres, Robert J.; Boden, Thomas A.; Higdon, David M.

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughoutmore » this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2 σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.« less

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Robert J.; Boden, Thomas A.; Higdon, David M.

2016-12-01

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4-190 %, with an average of 120 % (2σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.

Global-change vulnerability of a key plant resource, the African palms.

PubMed

Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Balslev, Henrik; Dransfield, John; Normand, Signe; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-07-27

Palms are keystone species in tropical ecosystems and provide essential ecosystem services to rural people worldwide. However, many palm species are threatened by habitat loss and over-exploitation. Furthermore, palms are sensitive to climate and thus vulnerable to future climate changes. Here, we provide a first quantitative assessment of the future risks to the African palm flora, finding that African palm species on average may experience a decline in climatic suitability in >70% of their current ranges by 2080. This suitability loss may, however, be almost halved if migration to nearby climatically suitable sites succeeds. Worryingly, 42% of the areas with 80-100% of species losing climate suitability are also characterized by high human population density (HPD). By 2080, >90% of all African palm species' ranges will likely occur at HPDs leading to increased risks of habitat loss and overexploitation. Additionally, up to 87% of all species are predicted to lose climatic suitability within current protected areas (PAs) by 2080. In summary, a major plant component of tropical ecosystems and provider of ecosystem services to rural populations will face strongly increased pressures from climate change and human populations in the near future.

Health policies and intervention strategies: a description of current issues and approaches to care of the public health and health care system in the United Arab emirates.

PubMed

Mosaad, Aliye T; Younis, Mustafa Z

2014-01-01

The demographic factors of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have changed drastically within one generation. This is evident in how quickly it has moved from a developing nation, where fishing was once the main source of income, to a country that is quite developed, competing on a global level. From one perspective, socio-economic progress has brought many benefits to the population. These include improved education, better access to health care, and safe drinking water. However, on the other hand, economic development has been the cause for changes in lifestyles, eating habits, and traditional societal and family structures. Over time, these changes have added up, creating an unprecedented impact on the population's health. This impact has crept up onto the society until suddenly a notable epidemic has become recognized in the country. According to the UAE Ministry of Health, 19.5 percent of the UAE population has diabetes, making it the second highest rate in the world. The structure and responsibilities of the current UAE health care systems along with other cultural factors were investigated in order to determine their impact on the growing epidemic.

Current status of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection in animals & humans in India: What needs to be done?

PubMed

Singh, Ajay Vir; Chauhan, Devendra Singh; Singh, Shoor Vir; Kumar, Vijay; Singh, Abhinendra; Yadav, Anjali; Yadav, Virendra Singh

2016-11-01

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) has emerged as a major health problem for domestic livestock and human beings. Reduced per animal productivity of domestic livestock seriously impacts the economics of dairy farming globally. High to very high bioload of MAP in domestic livestock and also in the human population has been reported from north India. Presence of live MAP bacilli in commercial supplies of raw and pasteurized milk and milk products indicates its public health significance. MAP is not inactivated during pasteurization, therefore, entering into human food chain daily. Recovery of MAP from patients with inflammatory bowel disease or Crohn's disease and animal healthcare workers suffering with chronic gastrointestinal problems indicate a close association of MAP with a number of chronic and other diseases affecting human health. Higher bioload of MAP in the animals increases the risk of exposure to the human population with MAP. This review summarizes the current status of MAP infection in animals as well as in human beings and also highlights the prospects of effective management and control of disease in animals to reduce the risk of exposure to human population.

The Lesser of Two Weevils: Molecular-Genetics of Pest Palm Weevil Populations Confirm Rhynchophorus vulneratus (Panzer 1798) as a Valid Species Distinct from R. ferrugineus (Olivier 1790), and Reveal the Global Extent of Both

PubMed Central

Rugman-Jones, Paul F.; Hoddle, Christina D.; Hoddle, Mark S.; Stouthamer, Richard

2013-01-01

The red palm weevil (RPW) is a major pest of palms. It is native to southeast Asia and Melanesia, but in recent decades has vastly expanded its range as the result of multiple accidental anthropogenic introductions into the Middle East, Mediterranean Basin, Caribbean, and U.S.A. Currently regarded as a single species, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier), RPW displays remarkable color variation across its range, and consequently has a taxonomic history littered with new species descriptions and synonymization. We compared DNA sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) gene from RPW populations throughout the native and invaded ranges, to investigate the specific status and invasion history of this serious economic pest, and to identify possible common routes of entry. Analyses of COI haplotype data provide conclusive support, corroborated by sequences of additional nuclear gene regions, for the existence of at least two predominantly allopatric species. The true R. ferrugineus is native only to the northern and western parts of continental southeast Asia, Sri Lanka and the Philippines, and is responsible for almost all invasive populations worldwide. In contrast, the second species, which is currently synonymized under R. ferrugineus and should be resurrected under the name R. vulneratus (Panzer), has a more southern distribution across Indonesia, and is responsible for only one invasive population; that in California, U.S.A. The distribution of COI haplotypes is used to discuss the possible existence of further cryptic species, sources and routes of entry of different invasive populations, and the implications of our findings for current control methods. PMID:24143263

75 FR 34171 - Trueheat, Inc., a Subsidiary of Global Heating Solutions, Inc., Currently Known as Truheat, a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-16

..., Inc., a Subsidiary of Global Heating Solutions, Inc., Currently Known as Truheat, a Division of Three Heat LLC, Allegan, MI; Electro-Heat, Inc., a Subsidiary of Global Heating Solutions, Inc., Currently... subsidiary of Global Heating Solutions, Inc., Allegan, Michigan and Electro-Heat, Inc., a subsidiary of...

Perceptions about the impact of global medical travel on poorer populations in India.

PubMed

Gifford, Blair; Park, SinYoung; Anand, Sharmila

2009-01-01

There is anecdotal evidence that the increasing focus on global medical travel health services for foreigners in India is likely to exacerbate the different levels of access to health services between India's wealthy and poor populations. However, surveyed physicians (n=177) at three hospitals in New Delhi indicated positive attitudes to global medical travel, especially in regards to global medical travel's effects on poorer populations. Overall, these results appear to be the result of respondents' support of the economic development, new medical technologies, and increased medical training that comes from the health infrastructure investments needed to attract foreign patients.

The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gasperi, Giuliano; Chen, Xioaguang; James, Anthony A.

2013-01-01

One of the most dynamic events in public health is being mediated by the global spread of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. Its rapid expansion and vectorial capacity for various arboviruses affect an increasingly larger proportion of the world population. Responses to the challenges of controlling this vector are expected to be enhanced by an increased knowledge of its biology, ecology, and vector competence. Details of population genetics and structure will allow following, and possibly predicting, the geographical and temporal dynamics of its expansion, and will inform the practical operations of control programs. Experts are coming together now to describe the history, characterize the present circumstances, and collaborate on future efforts to understand and mitigate this emerging public health threat. PMID:23916878

A Review of Guselkumab, an IL-23 Inhibitor, for Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis.

PubMed

Nawas, Z; Hatch, M; Ramos, E; Liu, M; Tong, Y; Peranteau, A; Tyring, S

2017-03-01

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disorder that affects 2% of the population. Evidence suggests that interleukin (IL)-23 plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of psoriasis. Guselkumab is a subcutaneously administered, humanized anti-IL23 monoclonal antibody indicated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. Data from Phase I-III trials in this patient population reveal that guselkumab has proven to be superior to placebo or adalimumab based on achieving a Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 90% reduction, or a static Physician Global Assessment (sPGA) score of 0 or 1 from baseline. This article reviews the current status of guselkumab as a therapy for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.

Climate change in Canadian forests: Effect of global warming and CO2 fertilization on natural populations of black and white spruce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, E. A.; Thomas, S. C.

2007-12-01

Global increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are predicted to enhance tree growth in the short term, but studies of current impacts of climate change on Canada's forests are limited. This study examined the effects of increasing temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration on tree ring growth in west-central Manitoba and northern Ontario, sampling white spruce (Picea glauca) and black spruce (Picea mariana), respectively. Over 50 tree cores from each site were sampled, analysed for ring-width, cross-dated and detrended, generating a ~100 y chronology for each population. We found a positive correlation between ring-width increment and spring temperatures (April-May: p<0.005) in Ontario. In Manitoba, however, we found a negative correlation between summer temperatures (Jul-Aug: p<0.005) and ring-width increment coincident with a positive relationship with summer precipitation (July: p<0.03). We examined the residuals following a regression with temperature for a positive trend over time, which has been interpreted in prior studies as evidence for a CO2 fertilization effect. We detected no such putative CO2 fertilization signal in either spruce population. Our results suggest that temperature-limited lowland black spruce communities may respond positively to moderate warming, but that water-limited upland white spruce communities may suffer from drought stress under high temperature conditions. Neither population appears to benefit from increasing CO2 availability.

[Obesity in Mexico].

PubMed

Dávila-Torres, Javier; González-Izquierdo, José Jesús; Barrera-Cruz, Antonio

2015-01-01

Excess body weight (overweight and obesity) is currently recognized as one of the most important challenges of public health in the world, given its size, speed of growth and the negative effect it has on the health of the population that suffers. Overweight and obesity significantly increases the risk of chronic no communicable diseases, premature mortality and the social cost of health. An estimated 90 % of cases of type 2 diabetes mellitus attributable to overweight and obesity. Today, Mexico is second global prevalence of obesity in the adult population, which is ten times higher than that of countries like Japan and Korea. With regard to children, Mexico ranks fourth worldwide obesity prevalence, behind Greece, USA and Italy. In our country, over 70 % of the adult population, between 30 and 60 years are overweight. The prevalence of overweight is higher in men than females, while the prevalence of obesity is higher in women than men. Until 2012, 26 million Mexican adults are overweight and 22 million obese, which represents a major challenge for the health sector in terms of promoting healthy lifestyles in the population and development of public policies to reverse this scenario epidemiology. Mexico needs to plan and implement strategies and action cost effective for the prevention and control of obesity of children, adolescents and adults. Global experience shows that proper care of obesity and overweight, required to formulate and coordinate multisectoral strategies and efficient for enhancing protective factors to health, particularly to modify individual behavior, family and community.

Analysing the natural population growth of a large marine mammal after a depletive harvest.

PubMed

Romero, M A; Grandi, M F; Koen-Alonso, M; Svendsen, G; Ocampo Reinaldo, M; García, N A; Dans, S L; González, R; Crespo, E A

2017-07-13

An understanding of the underlying processes and comprehensive history of population growth after a harvest-driven depletion is necessary when assessing the long-term effectiveness of management and conservation strategies. The South American sea lion (SASL), Otaria flavescens, is the most conspicuous marine mammal along the South American coasts, where it has been heavily exploited. As a consequence of this exploitation, many of its populations were decimated during the early 20th century but currently show a clear recovery. The aim of this study was to assess SASL population recovery by applying a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. We were particularly interested in understanding how the population responds at low densities, how human-induced mortality interplays with natural mechanisms, and how density-dependence may regulate population growth. The observed population trajectory of SASL shows a non-linear relationship with density, recovering with a maximum increase rate of 0.055. However, 50 years after hunting cessation, the population still represents only 40% of its pre-exploitation abundance. Considering that the SASL population in this region represents approximately 72% of the species abundance within the Atlantic Ocean, the present analysis provides insights into the potential mechanisms regulating the dynamics of SASL populations across the global distributional range of the species.

Global challenges in water, sanitation and health.

PubMed

Moe, Christine L; Rheingans, Richard D

2006-01-01

The year 2005 marks the beginning of the "International Decade for Action: Water for Life" and renewed effort to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGS) to reduce by half the proportion of the world's population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation by 2015. Currently, UNICEF and WHO estimate that 1.1 billion people lack access to improved water supplies and 2.6 billion people lack adequate sanitation. Providing safe water and basic sanitation to meet the MDGs will require substantial economic resources, sustainable technological solutions and courageous political will. We review five major challenges to providing safe water and sanitation on a global basis: (1) contamination of water in distribution systems, (2) growing water scarcity and the potential for water reuse and conservation, (3) implementing innovative low-cost sanitation systems, (4) providing sustainable water supplies and sanitation for megacities, and (5) reducing global and regional disparities in access to water and sanitation and developing financially sustainable water and sanitation services.

Education in burns: Lessons from the past and objectives for the future.

PubMed

Tevlin, Ruth; Dillon, Luke; Clover, A James P

2017-09-01

Burns are devastating to the individual and society, representing a huge biomedical burden. Improved education in burns has however ignited a revolution in high-income countries-burn mortality is reducing. Education in burns is far-reaching. For the purpose of this concise review, we focus on four categories: education of both (1) emergency and (2) specialist physicians, and the general population, both at a (3) societal and (4) individual level. Tragically, the global burns picture is bleak with burns representing a neglected but solvable health crisis. Ninety-five percent of burns occur in low-income countries, causing enormous suffering, death and disability. Here, we examine the literature detailing burn education with a focus on past lessons, current trends and future objectives. We have identified key educational objectives to revolutionise burn care on a global perspective. Now is the time to build on promising educational strides to reduce the global burns burden. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

The macroecology of sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burger, Joseph R.; Allen, Craig D.; Brown, James H.; Burnside, William R.; Davidson, Ana D.; Fristoe, Trevor S.; Hamilton, Marcus J.; Mercado-Silva, Norman; Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Okie, Jordan G.; Zuo, Wenyun

2012-01-01

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

Suicide trends in an expanding mental health service in Auckland.

PubMed

Argyle, Nick

2010-10-01

Suicide is a global health priority. It is important to analyse the effects of investment in mental health services on suicide rates. This paper presents and discusses recent changes in suicide rates and diagnostic mix among clients of the mental health service in Auckland during a time of service growth. Details of suicides among current clients were analysed for the years 1993 to 2006, comparing the periods 1993-1999 and 2000-2006. These periods were compared with the local population and national figures. The local population suicide rate decreased significantly with the rate among clients increasing slightly so the proportion occurring among clients increased (up to 31%). There was an increase in non-psychotic diagnoses. As access to services expands the proportion of suicides that occur in known clients will paradoxically increase. Service expansion may have contributed to the falling population suicide rate in Auckland.

Transcription termination factor Rho and microbial phenotypic heterogeneity.

PubMed

Bidnenko, Elena; Bidnenko, Vladimir

2018-06-01

Populations of genetically identical microorganisms exhibit high degree of cell-to-cell phenotypic diversity even when grown in uniform environmental conditions. Heterogeneity is a genetically determined trait, which ensures bacterial adaptation and survival in the ever changing environmental conditions. Fluctuations in gene expression (noise) at the level of transcription initiation largely contribute to cell-to-cell variability within population. Not surprisingly, the analyses of the mechanisms driving phenotypic heterogeneity are mainly focused on the activity of promoters and transcriptional factors. Less attention is currently given to a role of intrinsic and factor-dependent transcription terminators. Here, we discuss recent advances in understanding the regulatory role of the multi-functional transcription termination factor Rho, the major inhibitor of pervasive transcription in bacteria and the emerging global regulator of gene expression. We propose that termination activity of Rho might be among the mechanisms by which cells manage the intensity of transcriptional noise, thus affecting population heterogeneity.

Public Health and Mental Health Implications of Environmentally Induced Forced Migration.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; Rechkemmer, Andreas; Rai, Abha; McManus, Katherine T

2018-03-28

ABSTRACTClimate change is increasingly forcing population displacement, better described by the phrase environmentally induced forced migration. Rising global temperatures, rising sea levels, increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters, and progressive depletion of life-sustaining resources are among the drivers that stimulate population mobility. Projections forecast that current trends will rapidly accelerate. This will lead to an estimated 200 million climate migrants by the year 2050 and create dangerous tipping points for public health and security.Among the public health consequences of climate change, environmentally induced forced migration is one of the harshest and most harmful outcomes, always involving a multiplicity of profound resource and social losses and frequently exposing migrants to trauma and violence. Therefore, one particular aspect of forced migration, the effects of population displacement on mental health and psychosocial functioning, deserves dedicated focus. Multiple case examples are provided to elucidate this theme. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 7).

Challenges in evaluating the impact of the trade in amphibians and reptiles on wild populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Hoover, Craig; Dodd, C. Kenneth

2005-01-01

Amphibians and reptiles are taken from the wild and sold commercially as food, pets, and traditional medicines. The overcollecting of some species highlights the need to assess the trade and ensure that it is not contributing to declines in wild populations. Unlike most countries, the United States tracks the imports and exports of all amphibians and reptiles. Records from 1998 to 2002 reveal a US trade of several million wild-caught amphibians and reptiles each year, although many shipments are not recorded at the species level. The magnitude and content of the global commercial trade carries even greater unknowns. The absence of accurate trade and biological information for most species makes it difficult to establish whether current take levels are sustainable. The void of information also implies that population declines due to overcollecting could be going undetected. Policy changes to acquire baseline biological information and ensure a sustainable trade are urgently needed.

Understanding global climate change: paleoclimate perspective from the world's highest mountains.

PubMed

Thompson, Lonnie G

2010-06-01

Glaciers are among the world's best recorders of, and first responders to, natural and anthropogenic climate change and provide a time perspective for current climatic and environmental variations. Over the last 50 years such records have been recovered from the polar regions as well as low-latitude, high-elevation ice fields. Analyses of these ice cores and of the glaciers from which they have been drilled have yielded three lines of evidence for past and present abrupt climate change: (1) the temperature and precipitation histories recorded in the glaciers as revealed by the climate records extracted from the ice cores; (2) the accelerating loss of the glaciers themselves; and (3) the uncovering of ancient fauna and flora from the margins of the glaciers as a result of their recent melting, thus illustrating the significance of the current ice loss. The current melting of high-altitude, low-latitude ice fields is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics. The ongoing rapid retreat of the world's mountain glaciers, as well as the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, is not only contributing to global sea level rise, but also threatening fresh-water supplies in many of the most populous regions. More recently, strong evidence has appeared for the acceleration of the rate of ice loss in the tropics, which especially presents a clear and present danger to water supplies for at-risk populations in South America and Asia. The human response to this issue, however, is not so clear, for although the evidence from both data and models becomes more compelling, the rate of global CO2 emissions continues to accelerate. Climatologically, we are in unfamiliar territory, and the world's ice cover is responding dramatically. The loss of glaciers, which can be viewed as the world's water towers, threatens water resources that are essential for hydroelectric power, crop irrigation, municipal water supplies, and even tourism. As these glaciers are disappearing, we are also losing very valuable paleoclimate archives.

Virtual Global Magnetic Observatory - Concept and Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papitashvili, V.; Clauer, R.; Petrov, V.; Saxena, A.

2002-12-01

The existing World Data Centers (WDC) continue to serve excellently the worldwide scientific community in providing free access to a huge number of global geophysical databases. Various institutions at different geographic locations house these Centers, mainly organized by a scientific discipline. However, population of the Centers requires mandatory or voluntary submission of locally collected data. Recently many digital geomagnetic datasets have been placed on the World Wide Web and some of these sets have not been even submitted to any data center. This has created an urgent need for more sophisticated search engines capable of identifying geomagnetic data on the Web and then retrieving a certain amount of data for the scientific analysis. In this study, we formulate a concept of the virtual global magnetic observatory (VGMO) that currently uses a pre-set list of the Web-based geomagnetic data holders (including WDC) as retrieving a requested case-study interval. Saving the retrieved data locally over the multiple requests, a VGMO user begins to build his/her own data sub-center, which does not need to search the Web if the newly requested interval will be within a span of the earlier retrieved data. At the same time, this self-populated sub-center becomes available to other VGMO users down on the requests chain. Some aspects of the Web``crawling'' helping to identify the newly ``webbed'' digital geomagnetic data are also considered.

Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events.

PubMed

Horton, Daniel E; Skinner, Christopher B; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2014-08-01

Poor air quality causes an estimated 2.6 to 4.4 million premature deaths per year 1-3 . Hazardous conditions form when meteorological components allow the accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere 4-8 . Global warming-driven changes to atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle 9-13 are expected to alter the meteorological components that control pollutant build-up and dispersal 5-8,14 , but the magnitude, direction, geographic footprint, and public health impact of this alteration remain unclear 7,8 . We utilize an air stagnation index and an ensemble of bias-corrected climate model simulations to quantify the response of stagnation occurrence and persistence to global warming. Our analysis projects increases in stagnation occurrence that cover 55% of the current global population, with areas of increase affecting 10 times more people than areas of decrease. By the late-21 st century, robust increases of up to 40 days per year are projected throughout the majority of the tropics and subtropics, as well as within isolated mid-latitude regions. Potential impacts over India, Mexico, and the western U.S. are particularly acute due to the intersection of large populations and increases in the persistence of stagnation events, including those of extreme duration. These results indicate that anthropogenic climate change is likely to alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets.

Global Estimates of Dietary Intake of Docosahexaenoic Acid and Arachidonic Acid in Developing and Developed Countries.

PubMed

Forsyth, Stewart; Gautier, Sheila; Salem, Norman

2016-01-01

For international recommendations on docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) dietary intake to be valid, there needs to be a greater understanding of dietary patterns across both the developed and developing world. The aim of this investigation was to provide a global overview of dietary intake of DHA and ARA. Food balance sheets from the Food and Agriculture Organisation Statistics Division and fatty acid composition data from Australian food composition tables in Nutrient Tables 2010 were utilised to generate median per capita intake estimates for DHA and ARA in 175 countries worldwide. Estimated dietary intake per capita for DHA and ARA in 47 developed and 128 developing countries demonstrated that 48% of the 175 countries have an ARA intake of <150 mg/day and 64% have a dietary DHA intake of <200 mg/day. There was a direct relationship between dietary ARA and DHA intake and the per capita gross national income of the country. Regional analysis showed the lowest ARA and DHA dietary intake in Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asian populations. This study demonstrates there are many populations worldwide that have ARA and DHA intake that do not reflect current international recommendations, and the public health consequences of this global inadequacy need to be urgently considered. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The epidemiology of acne vulgaris in late adolescence

PubMed Central

Lynn, Darren D; Umari, Tamara; Dunnick, Cory A; Dellavalle, Robert P

2016-01-01

Importance Acne vulgaris is the most common skin condition affecting late adolescents across the globe. Although prior studies have evaluated epidemiologic patterns of acne vulgaris in various ethnicities and regions, adequate understanding of the worldwide burden of the disease associated with patients in their late adolescence (15–19-year olds) remains lacking. Objective To assess the global burden of the disease associated with acne vulgaris for late adolescents (15–19-year olds) and provide an overview of the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and treatment options for acne in this population. Design Database summary study. Setting Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 database. Participants Global Burden of Disease regions comprised countries with prevalence of acne vulgaris between the ages of 15 and 19 years. Main outcomes and measures Geographic region-level disability-adjusted life year rates (per 100,000 persons) associated with acne vulgaris in years 1990 through 2010. Median percentage change in disability-adjusted life year rates was estimated for each region across the specified study period. Conclusion and relevance Acne vulgaris-associated disease burden exhibits global distribution and has continued to grow in prevalence over time within this population. This continued growth suggests an unmet dermatologic need worldwide for this disorder and potential opportunities for improved access and delivery of dermatologic care. Our analysis of the literature reveals numerous opportunities for enhanced patient care. To that end, we highlight some of the effective and promising treatments currently available and address important factors, such as sex, nationality, genetics, pathophysiology, and diet, as they relate to acne vulgaris in late adolescence. PMID:26955297

Beyond recommendations: implementing food-based dietary guidelines for healthier populations.

PubMed

Smitasiri, Suttilak; Uauy, Ricardo

2007-03-01

To reduce the increased burden of diet-related disease and promote human potential through food and nutrition globally, harmonization of efforts is urgently needed. This article examines the concept of food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) and discusses the possibilities and challenges of harmonizing the process of developing and implementing dietary guidelines. The authors argue that while the development of FBDGs has contributed to the understanding of the role of nutrients and foods in achieving optimal health, the impact of these guidelines on human health has been limited. Science or evidence must be used in FBDG development; nevertheless, there are limitations in current nutrition science. FBDGs should address the health consequences of dietary insufficiency, excess, or imbalance with a broader perspective, considering the totality of the effects of a given dietary pattern, rather than focusing on single nutrients alone. Moreover, the food selection guideline should be seen as complementary to a strategic, comprehensive, and culturally appropriate dietary and health promoting intervention, and not only as a tool for providing nutrition policy and information. Technically, a single unified global set of FBDGs may be desirable and even achievable. This concept, however, presents novel challenges on how to address cultural diversity and the complex social, economic, and political interactions between humans and the food supply, not to mention the complexity of its communication and implementation. Therefore, global harmonized efforts in support of strategic dietary interventions, together with strong global scientific support and facilitation for the development and communication of FBDGs at national or regional levels, are proposed to implement FBDGs for healthier populations.

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

The rural-to-urban migrant population in China: gloomy prospects for tuberculosis control.

PubMed

Tobe, Ruoyan Gai; Xu, Lingzhong; Song, Peipei; Huang, Yong

2011-12-01

The migrant population is a population with a high risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection and transmission. Globally, migration is likely to have a significant impact on TB epidemiology, particularly in countries that receive substantial numbers of migrants from countries with a high infection burden. China, a country with the world's second highest TB burden, faces a considerable increase in the number of rural-to-urban migrants. This population has a significant impact on urban TB epidemics and is specifically targeted by national guidelines for TB control. TB control among the migrant population has had relatively poor outcomes. Barriers to detection and treatment have both financial and non-financial aspects, such as the "migratory" nature of the migrant population, their marginalized working and living environment, poor financial status, little awareness of TB, inadequate referral to TB dispensaries, and potential social stigma in the workplace. Currently, the free TB treatment policy has limited ability to relieve the financial burden on most migrant TB patients as would allow optimal outcomes of TB detection and treatment. Universal health insurance coverage and fostering of personnel in community-based primary health care for the rural-to- urban migrant population represent two pillars of successful TB control.

Current challenges in meeting global iodine requirements.

PubMed

Eastman, Creswell J; Jooste, Pieter

2012-01-01

Iodine deficiency is a global problem of immense magnitude afflicting 2 billion of the world's population. The adverse effects of iodine deficiency in humans, collectively termed iodine deficiency disorders, result from decreased thyroid hormone production and action, and vary in severity from thyroid enlargement (goiter) to severe, irreversible brain damage, termed endemic cretinism. Thyroid hormone is essential throughout life, but it is critical for normal brain development in the fetus and throughout childhood. During pregnancy, maternal thyroid hormone production must increase by 25-50% to meet maternal-fetal requirements. The principal sources of iodine in the diet include milk and dairy products, seafoods and foods with added iodized salt. Vegetables, fruits and cereals are generally poor sources of iodine because most of our soils and water supplies are deficient in iodine. The accepted solution to the problem is Universal Salt Iodization where all salt for human and animal consumption is iodized at a level of 20-40 µg/g. In principle, mandatory fortification represents the most effective public health strategy where safety and efficacy can be assured and there is a demonstrated need for the nutrient in the population. Voluntary fortification of salt and other foods has many limitations and few benefits. Iodine supplementation is a useful, but expensive, inefficient and unsustainable strategy for preventing iodine deficiency. The current worldwide push to decrease salt intake to prevent cardiovascular disease presents an entirely new challenge in addressing iodine deficiency in both developing and developed countries. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking among population aged 15 years or older, Vietnam, 2010.

PubMed

Xuan, Le Thi Thanh; Van Minh, Hoang; Giang, Kim Bao; Nga, Pham Thi Quynh; Hai, Phan Thi; Minh, Nguyen Thac; Hsia, Jason

2013-04-18

The prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking is increasing globally and is associated with adverse outcomes requiring tobacco control interventions. We estimated the prevalence of waterpipe tobacco use among adult populations in Vietnam in 2010 and examined its association with sociodemographic factors. We used data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) conducted in Vietnam in 2010. GATS surveyed a national representative sample of adults aged 15 years or older from 11,142 households by using a 2-phase sampling design analogous to a 3-stage stratified cluster sampling. Descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression modeling were conducted. A total of 6.4% of Vietnamese aged 15 years or older (representing about 4.1 million adult waterpipe smokers) reported current waterpipe tobacco smoking. The prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking was significantly higher among men than women (13% vs 0.1%). Area of residence (rural or urban), age group, asset-based wealth quintile, and geographic region of residence were significantly associated with waterpipe tobacco smoking among men. The significant correlates of current waterpipe tobacco smoking among men were lower education levels, being middle-aged (45-54 years), lower asset-based wealth levels, living in rural areas, not living in the South East and the Mekong River Delta geographic regions, and the belief that smoking does not causes diseases. Rural dwellers who are poor should be targeted in tobacco control programs. Further studies are needed that examine perceptions of the adverse health effects and the cultural factors of waterpipe tobacco smoking.

The increasing globalization of health librarianship: a brief survey of international trends and activities.

PubMed

Madge, Bruce; Plutchak, T Scott

2005-09-01

Throughout his career, Leslie Morton was interested in international developments in health librarianship. In memory of the work he did in this field, the authors examine current developments in international health librarianship and describe some current themes. The authors draw from their combined experience in international activities and the published information available from selected library associations and related organizations. Although many of the major health library associations around the world are tackling agendas specific to their own country, issues of international concern are emerging in common. These are grouped around globalization, partnerships and co-operation, electronic access, especially open access, and working with the developing world in a number of different ways. Of course, the basis of all of these initiatives is to improve the health of the population by providing the best possible access to materials. Professional associations can provide a useful institutional infrastructure for addressing issues of international interest. Librarians should encourage their associations to develop these international initiatives and to seek out new and innovative ways to work together across international boundaries.

Expansion of a globally pervasive grass occurs without substantial trait differences between home and away populations.

PubMed

Leifso, A; MacDougall, A S; Husband, B; Hierro, J L; Köchy, M; Pärtel, M; Peltzer, D A

2012-12-01

The global expansion of species beyond their ancestral ranges can derive from mechanisms that are trait-based (e.g., post-establishment evolved differences compared to home populations) or circumstantial (e.g., propagule pressure, with no trait-based differences). These mechanisms can be difficult to distinguish following establishment, but each makes unique predictions regarding trait similarity between ancestral ('home') and introduced ('away') populations. Here, we tested for trait-based population differences across four continents for the globally distributed grass Dactylis glomerata, to assess the possible role of trait evolution in its worldwide expansion. We used a common-environment glasshouse experiment to quantify trait differences among home and away populations, and the potential relevance of these differences for competitive interactions. Few significant trait differences were found among continents, suggesting minimal change during global expansion. All populations were polyploids, with similar foliar carbon:nitrogen ratios (a proxy for defense), chlorophyll content, and biomass. Emergence time and growth rate favored home populations, resulting in their competitive superiority over away populations. Small but significant trait differences among away populations suggest different introductory histories or local adaptive responses following establishment. In summary, the worldwide distribution of this species appears to have arisen from its pre-adapted traits promoting growth, and its repeated introduction with cultivation and intense propagule pressure. Global expansion can thus occur without substantial shifts in growth, reproduction, or defense. Rather than focusing strictly on the invader, invasion success may also derive from the traits found (or lacking) in the recipient community and from environmental context including human disturbance.

Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

PubMed Central

Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as species experience changes in distribution in response to climate change. PMID:24466253

ESCAP/POPIN Expert Working Group on Development of Population Information Centres and Networks, 20-23 June 1984, Bangkok, Thailand.

PubMed

1984-07-01

An overview of current population information programs at the regional, national, and global level was presented at a meeting of the Expert Working Group on Development of Population Information Centres and Networks. On the global level, the decentralized Population Information Network (POPIN) was established, consisting of population libraries, clearinghouses, information systems, and documentation centers. The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Regional Population Information Centre (PIC) has actively promoted the standardization of methodologies for the collection and processing of data, the use of compatible terminology, adoption of classification systems, computer-assisted data and information handling, and improved programs of publication and infomration dissemination, within and among national centers. Among the national PICs, 83% are attached to the primary national family planning/fertility control unit and 17% are attached to demographic data, research, and analysis units. Lack of access to specialized information handling equipment such as microcomputers, word processors, and computer terminals remains a problem for PICs. Recommendations were made by the Expert Working Group to improve the functions of PICs: 1) the mandate and resoponsibilities of the PIC should be explicilty stated; 2) PICs should collect, process, and disseminate population information in the most effective format to workers in the population feild; 3) PICs should be given flexibility in the performance of activitites by their governing bodies; 4) short-term training should be provided in computerization and dissemination of information; 5) research and evaluation mechanisms for PIC activities should be developed; 6) PIC staff should prepare policy briefs for decision makers; 7) access to parent organizations should be given to nongovernment PICs; 8) study tours to foreign PICs should be organized for PIC staff; and 9) on-the-job training in indexing and abstracting should be provided. Networking among PICs can be further facilitated by written acquisition policies, automation of bibliographic information, common classification systems, and exchange of ideas and experience between various systems.

Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

2004-01-01

The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

Assessing the Importance of Domestic Vaccine Manufacturing Centers: An Overview of Immunization Programs, Vaccine Manufacture, and Distribution.

PubMed

Rey-Jurado, Emma; Tapia, Felipe; Muñoz-Durango, Natalia; Lay, Margarita K; Carreño, Leandro J; Riedel, Claudia A; Bueno, Susan M; Genzel, Yvonne; Kalergis, Alexis M

2018-01-01

Vaccines have significantly reduced the detrimental effects of numerous human infectious diseases worldwide, helped to reduce drastically child mortality rates and even achieved eradication of major pathogens, such as smallpox. These achievements have been possible due to a dedicated effort for vaccine research and development, as well as an effective transfer of these vaccines to public health care systems globally. Either public or private institutions have committed to developing and manufacturing vaccines for local or international population supply. However, current vaccine manufacturers worldwide might not be able to guarantee sufficient vaccine supplies for all nations when epidemics or pandemics events could take place. Currently, different countries produce their own vaccine supplies under Good Manufacturing Practices, which include the USA, Canada, China, India, some nations in Europe and South America, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Argentina, and Brazil, respectively. Here, we discuss some of the vaccine programs and manufacturing capacities, comparing the current models of vaccine management between industrialized and developing countries. Because local vaccine production undoubtedly provides significant benefits for the respective population, the manufacture capacity of these prophylactic products should be included in every country as a matter of national safety.

Assessing the Importance of Domestic Vaccine Manufacturing Centers: An Overview of Immunization Programs, Vaccine Manufacture, and Distribution

PubMed Central

Rey-Jurado, Emma; Tapia, Felipe; Muñoz-Durango, Natalia; Lay, Margarita K.; Carreño, Leandro J.; Riedel, Claudia A.; Bueno, Susan M.; Genzel, Yvonne; Kalergis, Alexis M.

2018-01-01

Vaccines have significantly reduced the detrimental effects of numerous human infectious diseases worldwide, helped to reduce drastically child mortality rates and even achieved eradication of major pathogens, such as smallpox. These achievements have been possible due to a dedicated effort for vaccine research and development, as well as an effective transfer of these vaccines to public health care systems globally. Either public or private institutions have committed to developing and manufacturing vaccines for local or international population supply. However, current vaccine manufacturers worldwide might not be able to guarantee sufficient vaccine supplies for all nations when epidemics or pandemics events could take place. Currently, different countries produce their own vaccine supplies under Good Manufacturing Practices, which include the USA, Canada, China, India, some nations in Europe and South America, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Argentina, and Brazil, respectively. Here, we discuss some of the vaccine programs and manufacturing capacities, comparing the current models of vaccine management between industrialized and developing countries. Because local vaccine production undoubtedly provides significant benefits for the respective population, the manufacture capacity of these prophylactic products should be included in every country as a matter of national safety. PMID:29403503

The Global Society will need commodities; how do we prepare for the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leahy, P. Patrick

2016-04-01

The global population currently stands at approximately 7 billion and is expected to increase to between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050. To put this into perspective, today's global population is triple what it was in 1950. Commodities are required for healthy societies, for robust economies and to raise living standards in the developing world. With major increases the population particularly in nations with emerging economies, the demand for commodities such as water, energy and minerals will significantly increase during the next several decades. Among the concerns are clean and available freshwater, expanded energy sources from natural gas and nuclear to renewable energy, and emerging needs for specialty materials that are needed for advanced technology to expanded use of more conventional minerals for agriculture and commerce. The developing world may have the greatest need for these commodities and also be the source of many of them. At the conclusion of the International Year of Planet Earth, a small group was formed to assess the need for a major scientific effort in the geosciences. Under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), the strategic initiatives group met and a broad initiative entitled 'Resourcing Future Generations' (RFG) that was designed to implement a scientific strategy to address the increasing demand for commodities over the next 25 years. The initiative focused on water resources, energy and minerals. The group felt strongly that the minerals component should be the initial emphasis and hoped that other global scientific organizations like IUGS would embrace the water and energy themes. Since this initial effort a number of workshops and presentations have been made including China, the International Geological Congress in Brisbane, the Davos Summit, Berlin, and Namibia amongst others. The strategic initiative planning group identifies 4 challenges to meeting future global mineral needs which are improved understanding of demand, discovery, extraction and social impact. RFG-Minerals consists of 4 major components: (1)understanding supply and demand, (2) gaining better knowledge of the subsurface, (3) improving technologies to safely and efficiently extract resources and (4) building social support and capacity in the developing world. This is ambitious effort that will require broad global collaboration across academia, government and industry.

Thinking Globally, Acting Locally About Food, Population and Energy Issues. Seventh Grade Interdisciplinary Unit.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Barbara, Ed.

This social studies unit suggests activities and teaching methods for use by seventh grade social studies classroom teachers as they develop and implement educational programs on global food, population, and energy problems. Objectives are to help students become aware of global interdependence, identify roles of various nations in causing and…

Planetary opportunities in crop water management: Potential to outweigh cropland expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jägermeyr, Jonas; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang; Heinke, Jens

2014-05-01

Global available land and water resources probably cannot feed projected future human populations under current productivity levels. Moreover, the planetary boundaries of both land use change and water consumption are being approached rapidly, and at the same time competition between food production, bioenergy plantations and biodiversity conservation is increasing. Global cropland is expected to expand to meet future demands, while considerable yield gaps remain in many world regions. Yield increases in Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, are currently mainly based on expansion of arable land into currently non-agricultural areas - while small-scale irrigation and water conservancy methods are considered very promising to boost yields there. In the here presented modeling study we investigate, at global scale, to what degree different on-farm options to better manage green and blue water might contribute to a global crop yield increase under conditions of current climate and projected future climate change. We consider methods aiming for a maximization of crops' water use efficiency and an optimal use of available on-farm water (precipitation): reducing unproductive soil evaporation (vapor shift, VS), collecting surface runoff after rain events to mitigate subsequent dry-spells (rain-water harvesting, RWH), increasing irrigation efficiency, and expanding irrigated area into rain-fed cropland (based on water savings from higher efficiencies). Global yield simulations based on hypothetical scenarios of these management opportunities are performed with the LPJmL ecohydrological modeling framework driven by reanalysis data and GCM ensemble simulations. We consider a range of about 20 climate change projections to cover respective uncertainties, and we analyze the effects of increasing CO2 concentration on the crops and their water demand. Crops are represented in a process-based and dynamic way by 12 crop functional types, each for rain-fed and irrigated areas, with prescribed annual fractions of cropland per 0.5° x 0.5° grid cell. We recalculate from the yield increase how much cropland expansion can be avoided in 30-yr averages. Our results show that the studied affordable low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands can have a considerable effect on yields at the global scale. A simulated global ~15% yield increase from a low-intensity water management scenario (25% of runoff used for RWH, 25% of soil evaporation avoided to achieve VS, slight irrigation efficiency improvement) could outweigh, i.e. possibly avoid, an estimated 120 Mha of cropland expansion under current climatic conditions. A (rather theoretical) maximum-intensity water management scenario (85% VS, 85% RWH, surface irrigation replaced by sprinkler systems) shows the potential to increase global yields by more than 35% without expansion or withdrawing additional irrigation water. Climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but as we sow such adaptation opportunities have the potential to mitigate or compensate these impacts in many countries. Overall, proper water management (sustainably maximizing on-farm water use efficiency) can substantially increase global crop yields and at the same time relax rates of land cover conversion.

Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.

2012-12-01

Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a narrow range that does not necessarily signal low uncertainty but rather a reliance on similar animal statistics and emission factors. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects 2000-2030 growth rates of livestock for most developing countries at 2% to >3% annually. However, the assumption of rapidly rising meat consumption is not supported by current trends nor by resource availability. For example, increased meat consumption in China and other developing countries is poultry and pork that do not affect CH4 emissions, suggesting that the rapid growth projected for all animals, boosting growth in CH4 emission, will not occur. From a resource standpoint, large increases in cattle, sheep and goat populations, especially for African countries (~60% by 2030), are not supportable on arid grazing lands that require very low stocking rates and semi-nomadic management. Increases projected for African animal populations would require either that about 2/3 more animals are grazed on increasingly drier lands or that all non-forested areas become grazing lands. Similar to solid waste, future methane emission from ruminant animals is likely to grow modestly although animals are not a likely candidate for CH4 mitigation due to their dispersed distribution throughout widely varying agricultural systems under very local management.

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The distribution of temperature changes experienced by the world population between 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Lower 3 panels: Temperatures experienced 2011-2030 (dashed, circle = mean) and 2080-2099 (solid, cross = mean) by income tercile. The poor do not experience larger changes than the wealthy. However, the poor begin the 21st century at higher temperatures.

Electron–Positron Pair Flow and Current Composition in the Pulsar Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brambilla, Gabriele; Kalapotharakos, Constantinos; Timokhin, Andrey N.; Harding, Alice K.; Kazanas, Demosthenes

2018-05-01

We perform ab initio particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of a pulsar magnetosphere with electron–positron plasma produced only in the regions close to the neutron star surface. We study how the magnetosphere transitions from the vacuum to a nearly force-free configuration. We compare the resulting force-free-like configuration with those obtained in a PIC simulation where particles are injected everywhere as well as with macroscopic force-free simulations. We find that, although both PIC solutions have similar structure of electromagnetic fields and current density distributions, they have different particle density distributions. In fact, in the injection from the surface solution, electrons and positrons counterstream only along parts of the return current regions and most of the particles leave the magnetosphere without returning to the star. We also find that pair production in the outer magnetosphere is not critical for filling the whole magnetosphere with plasma. We study how the current density distribution supporting the global electromagnetic configuration is formed by analyzing particle trajectories. We find that electrons precipitate to the return current layer inside the light cylinder and positrons precipitate to the current sheet outside the light cylinder by crossing magnetic field lines, contributing to the charge density distribution required by the global electrodynamics. Moreover, there is a population of electrons trapped in the region close to the Y-point. On the other hand, the most energetic positrons are accelerated close to the Y-point. These processes can have observational signatures that, with further modeling effort, would help to distinguish this particular magnetosphere configuration from others.

The Global Fund's resource allocation decisions for HIV programmes: addressing those in need

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Between 2002 and 2010, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria's investment in HIV increased substantially to reach US$12 billion. We assessed how the Global Fund's investments in HIV programmes were targeted to key populations in relation to disease burden and national income. Methods We conducted an assessment of the funding approved by the Global Fund Board for HIV programmes in Rounds 1-10 (2002-2010) in 145 countries. We used the UNAIDS National AIDS Spending Assessment framework to analyze the Global Fund investments in HIV programmes by HIV spending category and type of epidemic. We examined funding per capita and its likely predictors (HIV adult prevalence, HIV prevalence in most-at-risk populations and gross national income per capita) using stepwise backward regression analysis. Results About 52% ($6.1 billion) of the cumulative Global Fund HIV funding was targeted to low- and low-middle-income countries. Around 56% of the total ($6.6 billion) was channelled to countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The majority of funds were for HIV treatment (36%; $4.3 billion) and prevention (29%; $3.5 billion), followed by health systems and community systems strengthening and programme management (22%; $2.6 billion), enabling environment (7%; $0.9 billion) and other activities. The Global Fund investment by country was positively correlated with national adult HIV prevalence. About 10% ($0.4 billion) of the cumulative HIV resources for prevention targeted most-at-risk populations. Conclusions There has been a sustained scale up of the Global Fund's HIV support. Funding has targeted the countries and populations with higher HIV burden and lower income. Prevention in most-at-risk populations is not adequately prioritized in most of the recipient countries. The Global Fund Board has recently modified eligibility and prioritization criteria to better target most-at-risk populations in Round 10 and beyond. More guidance is being provided for Round 11 to strategically focus demand for Global Fund financing in the present resource-constrained environment. PMID:22029667

Big Events and Risks to Global Substance Using Populations: Unique Threats and Common Challenges.

PubMed

Mackey, Tim K; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2015-01-01

In this commentary, we review a set of "Big Events" from around the world that have adversely impacted substance using populations by first identifying common thematic areas between them, and then describing the unique challenges faced by the diverse and vulnerable populations impacted. The Big Events reviewed are multifaceted and complex in nature, and include the recent global financial crisis, economic and trade sanctions, political transition and its impact on ethnic minorities, colonialism and indigenous communities, and ecological disasters. All have led to immense trauma, displacement, and disruption to critical healthcare services/treatment for people who use drugs, populations who are left underserved in the midst of these crises. It is our hope that through this comparative assessment, global policymakers will proactively identify Big Events and prioritize the development of interventions and policy that meet the unique and immediate needs of substance using population in order to mitigate the significant negative short- and long-term impacts on global public health.

Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

PubMed

Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

2017-08-01

Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for assessing and monitoring impacts of chemicals on ecosystems facing global warming. We advise complementing existing monitoring approaches with directly quantifying ecosystem processes and services. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of recent and past climatic shifts on the genetic structure of the high mountain yellow-spotted ringlet butterfly Erebia manto (Lepidoptera, Satyrinae): a conservation problem.

PubMed

Schmitt, Thomas; Habel, Jan Christian; Rödder, Dennis; Louy, Dirk

2014-07-01

Mountain species have evolved important genetic differentiation due to past climatic fluctuations. The genetic uniqueness of many of these lineages is now at risk due to global warming. Here, we analyse allozyme polymorphisms of 1306 individuals (36 populations) of the mountain butterfly Erebia manto and perform Species Distribution Models (SDMs). As a consensus of analyses, we obtained six most likely genetic clusters: (i) Pyrenees with Massif Central; (ii) Vosges; (iii-v) Alps including the Slovakian Carpathians; (vi) southern Carpathians. The Vosges population showed the strongest genetic split from all other populations, being almost as strong as the split between E. manto and its sister species Erebia eriphyle. The distinctiveness of the Pyrenees-Massif Central group and of the southern Carpathians group from all other groups is also quite high. All three groups are assumed to have survived more than one full glacial-interglacial cycle close to their current distributions with up-hill and down-slope shifts conforming climatic conditions. In contrast with these well-differentiated groups, the three groups present in the Alps and the Slovakian Carpathians show a much shallower genetic structure and thus also should be of a more recent origin. As predicted by our SDM projections, rising temperatures will strongly impact the distribution of E. manto. While the populations in the Alps are predicted to shrink, the survival of the three lineages present here should not be at risk. The situation of the three other lineages is quite different. All models predict the extinction of the Vosges lineage in the wake of global warming, and also the southern Carpathians and Pyrenees-Massif Central lineages might be at high risk to disappear. Thus, albeit global warming will therefore be unlikely to threaten E. manto as a species, an important proportion of the species' intraspecific differentiation and thus uniqueness might be lost. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ring Current Response to Different Storm Drivers. Van Allen Probes and Cluster Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, S.; Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Spence, H. E.; Gkioulidou, M.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Farrugia, C. J.

2015-12-01

The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CME's), co-rotating interaction regions (CIR's), high-speed streamers and other structures. The resulting changes in the ring current particle pressure change the global magnetic field, which affects the transport of the radiation belts. In order to determine the field changes during a storm it is necessary to understand the transport, sources and losses of the particles that contribute to the ring current. The source population of the storm time ring current is the night side plasma sheet. However, it is not clear how these convecting particles affect the storm time ring current pressure development. We use Van Allen Probes and Cluster observations together with the Volland-Stern and dipole magnetic field models to determine the contribution in the ring current pressure of the plasma sheet particles convecting from the night side that are on open drift paths, during the storm evolution. We compare storms that are related to different interplanetary drivers, CME and CIR, as observed at different local times.

Current status of coronary risk factors among rural Malays in Malaysia.

PubMed

Nawawi, Hapizah M; Nor, Idris M; Noor, Ismail M; Karim, Norimah A; Arshad, Fatimah; Khan, Rahmattullah; Yusoff, Khalid

2002-02-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death in Malaysia, despite its status as a developing country. The rural population is thought to be at low risk. To investigate the prevalence of risk factors and global risk profile among rural Malays in Malaysia. We studied 609 rural Malay subjects (346 females, 263 males; age range 30-65 years). Blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), smoking habits and family history of premature CHD were documented. Fasting blood samples were analysed for serum lipids, lipoprotein (a), plasma glucose and fibrinogen. Oral glucose tolerance tests were performed using 75 g anhydrous glucose. The prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia for total cholesterol concentrations of > or = 5.2, > or =6.5 and > or =7.8 mmol/l were 67.3, 30.5 and 11.8% respectively. There was a high prevalence of low serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (13.1%), hypertension (30.3%), smokers (24.4%), diabetes (6.4%), impaired fasting glucose or glucose tolerance (13.9%), overweight or obesity (44.7%) and increased WHR (48.5%). Global risk assessment showed that 67.3% of the study population were at risk, with 15.9, 18.9 and 32.5% in the mild, moderate and high risk categories respectively. Prevalence of risk factors was high in the rural population. Global risk assessment showed a high-risk profile with two-thirds being at risk, and one-third being categorized into the high-risk group. Although rural communities were considered at low risk of developing CHD, this is changing fast, possibly due to the rapid socio-economic development, in addition to underlying genetic predisposition.

Spirituality, religiosity, aging and health in global perspective: A review.

PubMed

Zimmer, Zachary; Jagger, Carol; Chiu, Chi-Tsun; Ofstedal, Mary Beth; Rojo, Florencia; Saito, Yasuhiko

2016-12-01

Persistent population aging worldwide is focusing attention on modifiable factors that can improve later life health. There is evidence that religiosity and spirituality are among such factors. Older people tend to have high rates of involvement in religious and/or spiritual endeavors and it is possible that population aging will be associated with increasing prevalence of religious and spiritual activity worldwide. Despite increasing research on religiosity, spirituality and health among older persons, population aging worldwide suggests the need for a globally integrated approach. As a step toward this, we review a subset of the literature on the impact of religiosity and spirituality on health in later life. We find that much of this has looked at the relationship between religiosity/spirituality and longevity as well as physical and mental health. Mechanisms include social support, health behaviors, stress and psychosocial factors. We identify a number of gaps in current knowledge. Many previous studies have taken place in the U.S. and Europe. Much data is cross-sectional, limiting ability to make causal inference. Religiosity and spirituality can be difficult to define and distinguish and the two concepts are often considered together, though on balance religiosity has received more attention than spirituality. The latter may however be equally important. Although there is evidence that religiosity is associated with longer life and better physical and mental health, these outcomes have been investigated separately rather than together such as in measures of health expectancy. In conclusion, there is a need for a unified and nuanced approach to understanding how religiosity and spirituality impact on health and longevity within a context of global aging, in particular whether they result in longer healthy life rather than just longer life.

The global 21-cm signal in the context of the high- z galaxy luminosity function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirocha, Jordan; Furlanetto, Steven R.; Sun, Guochao

2017-01-01

We build a new model for the global 21-cm signal that is calibrated to measurements of the high-z galaxy luminosity function (LF) and further tuned to match the Thomson scattering optical depth of the cosmic microwave background, τe. Assuming that the z ≲ 8 galaxy population can be smoothly extrapolated to higher redshifts, the recent decline in best-fitting values of τe and the inefficient heating induced by X-ray binaries (the presumptive sources of the high-z X-ray background) imply that the entirety of cosmic reionization and reheating occurs at z ≲ 12. In contrast to past global 21-cm models, whose z ˜ 20 (ν ˜ 70 MHz) absorption features and strong ˜25 mK emission features were driven largely by the assumption of efficient early star formation and X-ray heating, our new models peak in absorption at ν ˜ 110 MHz at depths ˜-160 mK and have negligible emission components. Current uncertainties in the faint-end of the LF, binary populations in star-forming galaxies, and UV and X-ray escape fractions introduce ˜20 MHz (˜50 mK) deviations in the trough's frequency (amplitude), while emission signals remain weak (≲10 mK) and are confined to ν ≳ 140 MHz. These predictions, which are intentionally conservative, suggest that the detection of a 21-cm absorption minimum at frequencies below ˜90 MHz and/or emission signals stronger than ˜10mK at ν ≲ 140 MHz would provide strong evidence for `new' sources at high redshifts, such as Population III stars and their remnants.

Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

Lessons from Cuba for Global Precision Medicine: CYP2D6 Genotype Is Not a Robust Predictor of CYP2D6 Ultrarapid Metabolism.

PubMed

Dorado, Pedro; González, Idilio; Naranjo, María Eugenia G; de Andrés, Fernando; Peñas-Lledó, Eva María; Calzadilla, Luis Ramón; LLerena, Adrián

2017-01-01

A long-standing question and dilemma in precision medicine is whether and to what extent genotyping or phenotyping drug metabolizing enzymes such as CYP2D6 can be used in real-life global clinical and societal settings. Although in an ideal world using both genotype and phenotype biomarkers are desirable, this is not always feasible for economic and practical reasons. Moreover, an additional barrier for clinical implementation of precision medicine is the lack of correlation between genotype and phenotype, considering that most of the current methods include only genotyping. Thus, the present study evaluated, using dextromethorphan as a phenotyping probe, the relationship between CYP2D6 phenotype and CYP2D6 genotype, especially for the ultrarapid metabolizer (UM) phenotype. We report in this study, to the best of our knowledge, the first comparative clinical pharmacogenomics study in a Cuban population sample (N = 174 healthy volunteers) and show that the CYP2D6 genotype is not a robust predictor of the CYP2D6 ultrarapid metabolizer (mUM) status in Cubans. Importantly, the ultrarapid CYP2D6 phenotype can result in a host of health outcomes, such as drug resistance associated with subtherapeutic drug concentrations, overexposure to active drug metabolites, and altered sensitivity to certain human diseases by virtue of altered metabolism of endogenous substrates of CYP2D6. Hence, phenotyping tests for CYP2D6 UMs appear to be a particular necessity for precision medicine in the Cuban population. Finally, in consideration of ethical and inclusive representation in global science, we recommend further precision medicine biomarker research and funding in support of neglected or understudied populations worldwide.

Multiscale Spatial Modeling of Human Exposure from Local Sources to Global Intake.

PubMed

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-16

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals, are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea, an innovative multiscale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties are expressed as the evolution of the population intake fraction through inhalation and ingestion as a function of the distance from sources. For substances with atmospheric half-lives longer than a week, less than 20% of the global population intake through inhalation (median of 126 emission scenarios) can occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ∼10 000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route which locations minimize global intakes. Maps of global intake fractions associated with each emission location show clear patterns associated with population and agriculture production densities.

Diet change—a solution to reduce water use?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalava, M.; Kummu, M.; Porkka, M.; Siebert, S.; Varis, O.

2014-07-01

Water and land resources are under increasing pressure in many parts of the globe. Diet change has been suggested as a measure to contribute to adequate food security for the growing population. This paper assesses the impact of diet change on the blue and green water footprints of food consumption. We first compare the water consumption of the current diets with that of a scenario where dietary guidelines are followed. Then, we assess these footprints by applying four scenarios in which we gradually limit the amount of protein from animal products to 50%, 25%, 12.5% and finally 0% of the total protein intake. We find that the current water use at the global scale would be sufficient to secure a recommended diet and worldwide energy intake. Reducing the animal product contribution in the diet would decrease global green water consumption by 6%, 11%, 15% and 21% within the four applied scenarios, while for blue water, the reductions would be 4%, 6%, 9% and 14%. In Latin America, Europe, Central and Eastern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, diet change mainly reduces green water use, while in the Middle East region, North America, Australia and Oceania, both blue and green water footprints decrease considerably. At the same time, in South and Southeast Asia, diet change does not result in decreased water use. Our results show that reducing animal products in the human diet offers the potential to save water resources, up to the amount currently required to feed 1.8 billion additional people globally; however, our results show that the adjustments should be considered on a local level.

Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere.

PubMed

Peñuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusià, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S

2013-08-01

We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Review of mental health promotion interventions in schools.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Michelle; Svirydzenka, Nadzeya; Adams, Sarah; Dogra, Nisha

2018-05-11

The prevalence of mental disorders amongst children and adolescents is an increasing global problem. Schools have been positioned at the forefront of promoting positive mental health and well-being through implementing evidence-based interventions. The aim of this paper is to review current evidence-based research of mental health promotion interventions in schools and examine the reported effectiveness to identify those interventions that can support current policy and ensure that limited resources are appropriately used. The authors reviewed the current state of knowledge on school mental health promotion interventions globally. Two major databases, SCOPUS and ERIC were utilised to capture the social science, health, arts and humanities, and education literature. Initial searches identified 25 articles reporting on mental health promotion interventions in schools. When mapped against the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 10 studies were included and explored. Three of these were qualitative and seven were quantitative. A range of interventions have been tested for mental health promotion in schools in the last decade with variable degrees of success. Our review demonstrates that there is still a need for a stronger and broader evidence base in the field of mental health promotion, which should focus on both universal work and targeted approaches to fully address mental health in our young populations.

Current progress on understanding the impact of mercury on human health.

PubMed

Ha, Eunhee; Basu, Niladri; Bose-O'Reilly, Stephan; Dórea, José G; McSorley, Emeir; Sakamoto, Mineshi; Chan, Hing Man

2017-01-01

Mercury pollution and its impacts on human health is of global concern. The authors of this paper were members of the Plenary Panel on Human Health in the 12th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant held in Korea in June 2015. The Panel was asked by the conference organizers to address two questions: what is the current understanding of the impacts of mercury exposure on human health and what information is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention in lowering exposure and preventing adverse effects. The authors conducted a critical review of the literature published since January 2012 and discussed the current state-of-knowledge in the following areas: environmental exposure and/or risk assessment; kinetics and biomonitoring; effects on children development; effects on adult general populations; effects on artisanal and small-scale gold miners (ASGM); effects on dental workers; risk of ethylmercury in thimerosal-containing vaccines; interactions with nutrients; genetic determinants and; risk communication and management. Knowledge gaps in each area were identified and recommendations for future research were made. The Panel concluded that more knowledge synthesis efforts are needed to translate the research results into management tools for health professionals and policy makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

REDD and PINC: A new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global 'eco-utilities'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trivedi, M. R.; Mitchell, A. W.; Mardas, N.; Parker, C.; Watson, J. E.; Nobre, A. D.

2009-11-01

Tropical forests are 'eco-utilities' providing critical ecosystem services that underpin food, energy, water and climate security at local to global scales. Currently, these services are unrecognised and unrewarded in international policy and financial frameworks, causing forests to be worth more dead than alive. Much attention is currently focused on REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) and A/R (Afforestation and Reforestation) as mitigation options. In this article we propose an additional mechanism - PINC (Proactive Investment in Natural Capital) - that recognises and rewards the value of ecosystem services provided by standing tropical forests, especially from a climate change adaptation perspective. Using Amazonian forests as a case study we show that PINC could improve the wellbeing of rural and forest-dependent populations, enabling them to cope with the impacts associated with climate change and deforestation. By investing pro-actively in areas where deforestation pressures are currently low, the long-term costs of mitigation and adaptation will be reduced. We suggest a number of ways in which funds could be raised through emerging financial mechanisms to provide positive incentives to maintain standing forests. To develop PINC, a new research and capacity-building agenda is needed that explores the interdependence between communities, the forest eco-utility and the wider economy.

Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, William J.; Loucks, Daniel P.

2015-06-01

Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.